Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-18-18 | Blazers v. Clippers -125 | 122-109 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
We're getting down to must-win mode in some NBA matchups. That's the case in this game for the Clippers. LA has lost two in a row falling to the Rockets and Thunder, both on the road. No shame in that. But those defeats dropped the Clippers to 1 1/2 games out of the last playoff spot in the Western Conference. Following this home matchup, the Clippers play six of their next seven games on the road. The first four of those away contests are against the Timberwolves, Bucks, Pacers and Raptors. I doubt the Clippers will be favored in any of those games. So there is a tremendous sense of urgency for the Clippers to win this game. Portland is playing its best ball winning 12 in a row. This isn't so much a fade on the Trail Blazers as a play on the Clippers because of the spot. However, Portland has won nine of their past 12 wins at home. Two of their road victories during this span were against the Lakers and Suns. The last time Portland was away from Moda Center was 13 days ago. They won't go back on the road after this until next Sunday. The Trail Blazers don't need this game nearly as much as the Clippers being in good shape to earn the No. 3 seed in the West. Portland carries a high fatigue rating, too, playing for the third time in four days and without rest having defeated Detroit, 100-87, last night. The Trail Blazers have a marquee home game up next hosting the Rockets on Tuesday. There's the outside chance the Trail Blazers may not have their All-Star guard Damian Lillard for this game as the due date for the birth of his son is Monday. If the birth occurs earlier, though, Lilllard said he would be there for the occasion.
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03-18-18 | Marshall v. West Virginia -12.5 | Top | 71-94 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
Great job by Marshall upsetting Wichita State on Friday. That was the Thundering Herd's first NCAA Tournament victory. They are not going to get their second tournament win here, though. Not only are the Thundering Herd in a tough spot to get ready for this matchup following such a great win, but they have serious matchup problems against West Virginia. The Mountaineers hold huge edges athletically and in style of play with their pressure defense and strong senior backcourt of Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles. Unlike Marshall, West Virginia is tournament tested, too, having reached the Sweet 16 last March where they nearly took out Gonzaga. Not only can Carter, who was tremendous in the Mountaineers' first-round victory against Murray State and its star, Jonathan Stark, slow down Marshall's top scoring threat, Jon Elmore, but Sagaba Konate gives West Virginia a strong inside defensive presence. The Mountaineers finished sixth in the nation in shot block percentage. West Virginia is at its best against non-conference opponents not familar with the Mountaineers' full-court, all-out pressing. The Big 12 was tough again this season and its coaches know West Virginia. The conference also had exception guard play. West Virginia is stepping way down here. I see a kill spot here.
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03-18-18 | Maryland-Baltimore County v. Kansas State -10 | 43-50 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm still marveling at Maryland-Baltimore County's stunning upset of Virginia from two days ago. The Retrievers broke an 0-for-135 record of 16th seeds versus No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament by defeating the Cavaliers, 74-54. This is arguably the biggest upset in NCAA Tourney history. There is no way the Retrievers can come down from the heavens in such a short period to play a second consecutive perfect game to stay within single digits of emerging Kansas State. Maryland-Baltimore County was a 10-point underdog to Vermont in the championship game of the American East Conference Tournament. The Retrievers hit a long 3-point shot to pull out that win after losing to Vermont twice during the regular season by an average of 21.5 points. This is a team that was buried, 83-39, by Albany. The Retrievers clearly aren't in the class of Kansas State, a solid Big 12 team. The Wildcats are strong defensively particularly with their perimeter defense. The Retrievers lack the inside scoring game to hurt the Wildcats. Kansas State was most impressive, too, in its first-round tournament game holding Creighton to a season low in points in a 69-59 victory. It's an added plus if Dean Wade is able to play for the Wildcats after missing the win against Creighton.
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03-17-18 | Warriors -3 v. Suns | 124-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Much has changed for the Warriors since their 129-83 waltz against the Suns in the team's last meeting on Feb. 12. Namely Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson are all out. Golden State is 1-3 in its last four games having just lost two days ago to the lowly Kings at home. But if there's a team worse than the Kings it's the Suns. They are 1-17 in their last 18 games, losers of seven in a row. Phoenix is 2-22 in its last 24 games and may not have its best player and only consistent, legitimate scorer, Devin Booker. He's questionable because of a sprained right hand that rendered him ineffective in the Suns' last game, a blowout loss to Utah. I see the Warriors digging deep to beat this lowly foe. Golden State has a deep bench and still has star foward Draymond Green and solid veterans Andre Iguodala, Nick Young, David West and Shaun Livingston. The Warriors' next game is at San Antonio on Monday. They don't play again after that until Friday when Curry might be able to return. So the Warriors should have a very strong focus for this matchup, which normally wouldn't be the case considering how weak the opponent is. |
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03-17-18 | Seton Hall +4.5 v. Kansas | Top | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
Seton Hall has four excellent senior starters, including one of the top rebounders in the country in Angel Delgado, plus an excellent starting sophomore guard, Myles Powell. These group of seniors are playing in the NCAA Tournament for the third consecutive year. They earned their first Big Dance victory beating North Carolina State on Thursday to push their unbeaten point-streak to six in a row. They also got the moneky off their back in breaking through with an NCAA Tournament victory. This isn't a great Kansas team. The Jayhawks struggled against Ivy League team Penn before closing out the Quakers with a 14-6 run. That won't happen against tournament-tested Seton Hall. One of the Pirates' strong points is their offensive rebound. One of Kansas' weakness is giving up offensive rebounds where it ranked 280th in the country. The taller Priates can limit Kansas' rebounding and thus blunt the Jayhawks' desire to play up-tempo and their aggressive in-transition style.
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03-17-18 | Rhode Island v. Duke UNDER 149.5 | 62-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm not sold on Rhode Island's perimeter game. I see the Rams struggling to hit their outside shots against Duke's tough zone defenses. The Blue Devils have held seven of their last nine opponents to fewer than 69 points. The Under has cashed during eight of these past nine Duke games. The Rams can't count on getting to the foul line either as Duke's ranks No. 2 in the nation in fewest fouls. Rhode Island is very solid defensively allowing 68.2 points per game and ranking 47th in 3-point defense. I can envision the Rams bothering the Blue Devils, who have been turnover-prone, with their fullcourt pressure defense. "Our program is built around defense and making our opponent uncomfortable," Rhode Island coach Dan Hurley was quoted as saying after the Rams held Oklahoma to 69 points during regulation in their opening round NCAA Tournament game. The Sooners were ranked fifth in the nation in scoring at 84.9.
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03-16-18 | New Mexico State +5 v. Clemson | 68-79 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 22 m | Show | |
This is one of those No. 5 seeds versus No. 12 seeds that has seen so many upsets occur in the first round. I see this game fitting that upset pattern. I like having an underdog that has a coaching edge, is a strong rebounding team and plays very good defense. New Mexico State has all that going. The Aggies finished in the top-five in the nation in defensive field goal percentage and rebounding margin. Chris Jans has done a tremendous job in his first season as New Mexico State's coach. The Lobos proved they can step up in class knocking off Miami, Davidson and Illinois during a tough non-conference slate. They lost by just five to USC, a team better than Clemson no matter what the NCAA Tournament committee thinks. Clemson should not be this high of a seed. The Tigers built up their record by winning 15 of 16 home games. Their offense has gone downhill since their second leading scorer and rebounder, Dante Graham, suffered a season-ending injury in January.
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03-16-18 | College of Charleston +9.5 v. Auburn | Top | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
Auburn couldn't get straighten out for the SEC Conference Tournament and I don't see the Tigers getting a much needed quick fix in this opening round NCAA Tournament game either. The Tigers are 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS in their last six games. They were blasted by Alabama, 81-63, during the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. It's clear now that Auburn way overachieved earlier in the season. This certainly is the wrong time to be playing your worst ball. The College of Charleston is just the opposite. The Cougars are riding tremendous mometum winning 14 of their last 15 games. Their lone defeat during this span occurred in overtime. It wouldn't shock me at all to see the Cougars win this game outright.
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03-15-18 | Montana v. Michigan -10 | Top | 47-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Michigan's John Beilein is my favorite college basketball coach now that Bo Ryan has retired. His Wolverines have tournament experience and plenty of rest having been idle for 10 days following winning the Big 10 Conference Tournament. The Wolverines achieved that in grand style winning four games in four days culminated by victories against Michigan State and Purdue during the last two days. Michigan's averaging winning margin against those two powerhouses was 10 points. Montana certainly isn't in the class of Purdue and Michigan State. The Grizzlies play in Big Sky Conference. They last participated in the NCAA Tournament in 2013. The last time they won a game in the Big Dance was 2006. The Grizzlies are 3-11 the last 14 times they've played Big 10 teams and are 1-5 ATS during their past six neutral site games. Michigan, by contrast, is 15-5-1 ATS the past 21 times when meeting an above .500 opponent. The Wolverines enter tournament play riding a nine-game win streak. They have the ninth-best defense in the country, have held seven of their last eight opponents to fewer than 67 points, rank 25th in offensive rebounding and are No. 2 in turnover percentage. They are far, far superior to Montana. Given the situational elements, the Wolverines should have no problem winning by double-digits.
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03-15-18 | Suns +14 v. Jazz | 88-116 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
Utah is playing great and just destroyed Detroit, 110-79, at home two days ago. That was the Jazz's fifth straight victory by at least 14 points. Phoenix is 1-16 in its last 17 games and just was embarrassed, 129-107, at home by the Cavaliers this past Tuesday. That was only the third time in their last 11 games, though, the Suns have lost by more than 11 points. Understandably the marketplace isn't interested in backing Phoenix. The Jazz have been bet up enough, however, where I see value taking the Suns. The Suns want to redeem themselves from their bad loss to the Cavaliers. Devin Booker, their best player, criticized his organization following that loss for babying the players. The Suns are extremely young with only Tyson Chandler and Jared Dudley having more than four years experience. But the Suns do possess some talent headed by Booker, the 10th-leading scorer in the NBA. Phoenix is 9-5 ATS the past 14 times it has been a double-digit 'dog. The Suns won't attempt to play their small ball against this opponent. So Chandler, their veteran big man and still a rebounding force, will draw decent minutes. He can keep Rudy Gobert in check. The Jazz can't be faulted for taking this opponent lightly. Utah averages less than 103 points a game so it's difficult to cover a margin this large.
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03-15-18 | NC State v. Seton Hall -135 | 83-94 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
Kudos to Kevin Keatts for the remarkable job he did this season at North Carolina State. The Wolfpack really overachieved going from a sub .500 team of a year ago to making the Big Dance this season. But this is a bad matchup for the Wolfpack. Their lack of tournament experience, poor defensive field goal percentage and mediocre rebounding is going to cost them against Seton Hall in this first round Midwest Region game. When the point spread is short like this, I often like to play the money line laying a little higher juice for more protection. There should be good shopping in this regards with a lot of money line flucutation. Often a team goes through stages gradually improving until they are ripe to win a game or two in the NCAA Tournament. That's the case with Seton Hall. The Pirates are making their third straight appearance in the NCAA Tournament. They lost in their first-round game to powerhouse Gonzaga two years ago and lost in controversial fashion last season to Arkansas on a flagrant foul call late in the game when trailing by only one point. I believe the due factor kicks in for Seton Hall here. The Pirates have the experience - with four senior starters - and talent to beat this opponent. Those starting seniors - Khadeen Carrington, Angel Delgado, Desi Rodriguez and Ismael Sanogo - are the most successful recruiting group Seton Hall has had in a long time. Rodriguez is averaging nearly 18 points and five rebounds per game and Delgado is the Big East's career rebounding leader. The other starter, sophomnore guard Myles Powell, averages 15.4 points a game and was named the Big East's Most Improved Player. The Pirates enter the tournament having covered in their last five games. While North Carolina State did go 11-7 in the ACC, its non-conference schedule ranked just 343rd in the country as far as strenth of schedule. North Carolina State ranks 294th in defensive field goal percentage, allowing foes to hit 53.5 percent of their two-point shots, and is 307th in defensive rebounding percentage. Seton Hall can exploit this ranking among the top 30 in offensive rebounding percentage and rating 26th in terms of points per 100 possessions. The timing is ripe for these outstanding Seton Hall seniors to win an NCAA Tournament game. That time is now.
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03-14-18 | Lakers v. Warriors -7 | Top | 106-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
The Warriors have been idle since Sunday having lost their last two games. Golden State hasn't lost three games in a row all season. Golden State is rested, fired-up and ready to unleash its frustrations against the Lakers. LA has been playing well, but isn't good enough to beat an elite foe. The Lakers also just beat the Nuggets in a highly-satisfying home victory last night in a very emotional and physical game. This marks the Lakers' third game in four days. They remain without injured second-leading scorer Brandon Ingram. The Warriors won't have Stephen Curry. They've had two games to adjust now to his absence. Golden State leads the NBA in all major scoring categories, including points per game and shooting percentage. The Warriors also rank third in defensive field goal percentage. The Lakers rank 27th defensively. They've allowed triple-digits in their last 13 games. The Warriors are by far the superior team and are in a strong situational spot here. The points are worthy laying.
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03-14-18 | BYU v. Stanford -135 | 83-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Stanford plays in the better conference and was tough down the stretch going 5-2. A victory against Arizona State 11 days ago was especially impressive. BYU hasn't been impressive on the road losing at Pacific, Loyola-Marymount and San Diego while going into overtime against Pepperdine. The Cardinal have covered in eight of their last nine home contests. Stanford has a balanced scoring attack paced by forward Reid Travis, one of the better players in the Pac-10. BYU ranks just 231st in defensive field goal percentage allowing opponents to hit nearly 45 percent of their field goals.
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03-14-18 | Wizards -140 v. Celtics | 125-124 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
At first this line may seem strange: Washington a road favorite against the Celtics. But there are reasons for this. The Celtics aren't playing that well going just 7-6 in their last 13 games. Worse for the Celtics is they are extremely banged-up. Kyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown, Daniel Theis and Marcus Smart are all out. Al Horford missed the Celtics' last game with an illness and is questionable here. The Celtics are likely ensured of finishing in second place in the Eastern Conference so this isn't a high priority game. Boston is well ahead of Indiana and Cleveland for the No. 2 spot, but trails Eastern Conference leader Toronto by four games. Washington is in stop-the-pain mode having lost two in a row. Those losses came to Miami on the road and to Minnesota at home last night. The Wizards were idle the previous two days, though, so fatigue shouldn't factor. The Wizards are 20-14 ATS on the road this season, including covering five of their past six away matchups. |
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03-13-18 | North Carolina-Asheville +18 v. USC | 98-103 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show | |
USC can destroy this team if it wants. But I don't see the Trojans having the motivation after failing to make the NCAA Touranment. The Trojans were royally ripped-off in not making the tournament. This is their first NIT bid since 1999 - and they certainly aren't excited about it. Their home court edge isn't going to amount to that much either because it's spring break on the USC campus. UNC Asheville have experienced guards, which is a key in tournament action especially when on the road. The Bulldogs are excited about taking on the Trojans. They have covered in seven of their last 10 matchups versus opponents who have a winning percentage above .600.
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03-13-18 | Nuggets v. Lakers +2 | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
The Lakers are playing well winning seven of their last nine, including defeating Cleveland, 127-113, at home this past Sunday. The Lakers have covered 69 percent of their last 16 games. LA is home here with short revenge. The Nuggets are 11-20 on the road this season. There is bad blood between these two teams and it centers around the Nuggets punk guard Jamal Murray. The Lakers don't like Murry believing he hasn't shown proper NBA respect. The Nuggets just beat the Lakers, 125-116, at Pepsi Center this past Friday in an intense matchup that concluded with Lakers coach Luke Walton screaming at Murray and a number of LA players vowing payback. That time has come now. Julius Randle and Brook Lopez are playing at high levels. Lonzo Ball is healthy. The Lakers have scored at least 111 points in 10 of their last 12 games. Denver ranks last in defensive field goal and is weak on the road. |
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03-13-18 | Southeastern Louisiana v. St. Mary's UNDER 142 | 45-89 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
St. Mary's is ranked 15th in fewest points allowed per game. SE Louisiana is going to have problems denting the Gaels' defense. The under has cashed 14 of the last 17 times in St. Mary's home games. |
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03-13-18 | Hampton +22.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 63-84 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
It's spring break and snowing on the Notre Dame campus. So it's hard to imagine the Irish basketball players getting up for this first-round NIT matchup knowing they were the final school left out of the NCAA Tournament, a tournament they should have been selected to. This what Notre Dame coach Mike Brey was quoted as saying on Sunday when word came out that the Irish were not picked for the NCAA Tournament: "We've had all kinds of things happen and on the most important day, it was a heartbreaking day. It's a tough one to swallow." I can't see Notre Dame being motivated at all. But is Hampton good enough to hang around? I believe so especially given this huge spread. The Pirates were the best team in the MEAC this season. They have played in post-season tournaments the past four years, including the NCAA Tournament in 2015 and 2016. Hampton has won 10 of its last 11 games. The Pirates have a pair of very good guards in Jermaine Marrow and Malique Trent-Street. The Pirates ranked 55th in the nation in scoring at 79.3 points per game. Notre Dame, which has been inconsistent offensively, averages 75 points. The Pirates are a strong rebounding team - tied for 12th in the nation - and have depth with 11 players averaging at least 11 minutes per game. This is important if the spread comes into question late in the game when Notre Dame is playing its bench players. Hampon is road-tested having covered 12 of its last 16 away contests. The Pirates rank among the top 56 teams in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. So there are a lot of checkmarks as to why Hampton can hang with a disinterested Notre Dame team that isn't likely to have much of a crowd.
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03-13-18 | Hornets v. Pelicans -4 | 115-119 | Push | 0 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
The Pelicans have Anthony Davis back and are due for a strong performance after losing the first two games of their homestand. Those losses were to the Wizards and Jazz. Now the Pelicans are dropping way down in class. The Hornets are nine games under .500 and headed for the lottery once again. They are 1-5 in their last six games. Their lone victory during this span was a home win against the lowly Suns, who were minus their best player, Devin Booker. The Hornets nearly blew a 22-point lead, too, in that game as the Suns cut the margin to just two points in the fourth quarter. Charlotte is 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games and 0-8 the past eight times versus Western Conference foes. The Hornets also could be without underrated big man Cody Zeller, who is dealing with knee soreness.
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03-11-18 | Rockets v. Mavs +12.5 | 105-82 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
Dallas is playing better since being called out for tanking. The Mavericks are 2-0 in their last two games defeating the Nuggets and Grizzlies by a combined 45 points. They could get back Dennis Smith Jr. from a quad injury today after the star rookie point guard missed the Mavericks' 114-80 waltz against the Grizzlies last night. The Mavericks should have more motivation than the Rockets in a triple-revenge spot. Houston is 3-0 versus Dallas this season. The Rockets' average win margin in these three games is 10 points. Perhaps the biggest factor, though, in backing the home 'dog is I'm not expecting James Harden to play for the Rockets. This is Houston's fourth road game in six days. The Rockets have a far more challenging game on Monday when they host San Antonio. So the word is the Rockets are going to give Harden a chance to rest his sore knees by sitting him out here. Houston doesn't figure to care much about this matchup and could be in a letdown moood after its 17-game win streak was ended by the Raptors this past Friday night.
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03-11-18 | Warriors v. Wolves UNDER 226 | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
You probably know Golden State is the highest scoring team in the NBA. But the Warriors also are a strong defensive team, too. They rank No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage. Golden State should be motivated to play a much stronger defensive game than its last appearance when it lost, 125-108 on the road to the Trail Blazers Friday. The Warriors had to play that game without rest. The Under has cashed four of the past five times the Warriors have played on one day's rest. Karl-Anthony Towns is the Timberwolves' leading scorer with Jimmy Butler out. He'll have to face Draymond Green, one of the top defenders in the league. So I'm not expecting the Timberwolves to have a big scoring game. The key, though, is can the Timberwolves hold the Warriors down enough to make this Under work? I believe the circumstances are right for this to occur. Minnesota is in stop-the-pain mode having lost three in a row. Timberwolves coach Tom Thibodeau knows his team has to tighten their defense in order to overcome the loss of Butler, their top scorer but also their best defender. The Timberwolves should have a lot of defensive intensity. They also draw a beat-up Warrors squad minus Stephen Curry, who averages 26.3 points a game. He's out with an ankle injury. David West and Andre Iguodala aren't likely to play either. Jordan Bell and Patrick McCaw are definitely out. This heavily reduces the Warriors' depth and bench strength. This also is a day game with a start made even earlier by daylight savings time kicking in. Note, too, there is a strong Under history with 13 of the last 16 between these two teams going below the total when played in Minnesota.
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03-11-18 | Davidson v. Rhode Island UNDER 140 | 58-57 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
These teams have a strong under bias when playing one another. The under has cashed in seven of the past nine meetings. I see that trend contiuning here. These teams have met twice this season and the combined total for both games was 127 1/2 points scored. Davidson is not the high scoring team of past seasons. The Wildcats are much more deliberate and slow paced. They figure to have problems making their long jumpers, too, as Rhode Island ranks first in the Atlantic 10 Conference in 3-point defense. |
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03-10-18 | Magic +11.5 v. Clippers | 105-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
Less than 24 hours after a highly satisfying 116-102 home win against LeBron James and the Cavaliers, the Clippers host the lowly Magic. It's going to be tough for the Clippers to get up for this opponent especially since the Magic are likely to be without their two leading scorers, Aaron Gordon (concussion) and Evan Fournier (knee). The Magic played one of their worst games without those two losing 94-88 on the road to the Kings last night. Orlando's offense was discombobulated against a weak Kings defense. But the Magic have had a game now to adjust to the absence of Gordon and Fournier. The Clippers have been winning with offense not defense allowing triple digits in each of their last 11 games. So I'm expecting a better and more inspired performance from the Magic, who don't play again until Tuesday. Unlike other bottom feeders, the Magic usually play hard and are not in tank mode. This is born out by the Magic covering 16 of the last 22 times as underdogs, going 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games and being 8-2 ATS off an ATS loss. Orlando has covered 17 of its last 24 games and is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games when playing an opponent with a winning home mark. The Clippers have a three-game road trip up next that features matchups against the Rockets and Thunder. So Doc Rivers isn't going to burn out his best players against this opponent especially since his team played last night.
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03-10-18 | San Diego State -4 v. New Mexico | Top | 82-75 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
San Diego State is on a huge roll and I'm going to get behind the Aztecs here. They are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games since suspended senior leader Malik Pope returned to the team. All together, the Aztecs have won eight in a row. They've covered the past six times against above .500 opponents. New Mexico is in a bad situational spot having had to play the late game last night. Now they have to play around 15 hours later with legs that figure to be tired. San Diego State should be the much fresher team since it played earlier and only had one of its starters go past the 29-minute mark. The Aztecs are a bad matchup, too, for New Mexico because they like to slow things down and don't turn the ball over. The Lobos thrive on comitting turnovers. That's not likely to happen here. |
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03-09-18 | Oregon v. USC -140 | 54-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
I don't see Oregon having anything left in the tank. The Ducks are playing for the third day in a row. They won in overtime two days ago and were involved in a nail-biting two point victory against Utah last night. |
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03-09-18 | Wizards v. Pelicans UNDER 220 | 116-97 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
The Wizards don't play at a fast pace and could be without Otto Porter Jr., their third-leading scorer. The Pelicans are unlikely to have Anthony Davis. His minutes will be filled by defensive-minded players, Emeka Okafor and Cheick Diallo. The Pelicans are a high scoring team, but that scoring is going to be down without Davis and DeMarcus Cousins, who is out for the season. |
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03-09-18 | Knicks +10 v. Bucks | 112-120 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
The due factor is there for the Knicks, who are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games and were blown out at Portland during their last game this past Tuesday. Mainly, though, this handicap is a fade on the Bucks laying this many points. Milwaukee just isn't that strong of a team and are not in good form. The Bucks have lost six of their last seven games. They are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games and 2-6 SU with one of those victory coming against the Hawks by five points. The Knicks nearly beat the Bucks when they last played at Bradley Center falling 92-90 on Feb. 2. The Knicks then lost by 14 points at home to the Bucks four days in the game where Kristaps Porzingis was lost for the season with an ACL injury. So the Knicks should have extra motivation here.
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03-09-18 | Rockets -120 v. Raptors | 105-108 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 39 m | Show | |
There aren't many teams who can trump the Raptors in Toronto. Just two really. Golden State and Houston. Kudos to the Raptors if they can end the Rockets' 17-game win streak. I don't see it happening, though. The Raptors may be the best team in the Eastern Conference, but they have fattened up their record by dominating weak teams. Toronto has failed to cover seven of the past 10 times, though, when playing opponents with a winning mark. Houston, by contrast, is 9-0 ATS in its last nine road games versus foes with a winning home record. The Rockets also are 14-3 ATS the past 17 times playing above .500 opponents. The Rockets have added motivation for a 129-113 home loss to the Raptors suffered back in mid-November.
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03-09-18 | Rockets v. Raptors UNDER 220.5 | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
It's easy to think offense with all the stars going in this matchup. The linesmaker believes so, too, setting a high total. But Houston and Toronto are two underrated defensive teams. The Rockets rank 10th in defensive efficiency. They are giving up 105.2 points per game on the season, which ranks 12th. They have held three of their last five opponents under 100 points. The Raptors rank No. 2 in defensive efficiency. They play their best defense at home, too. Toronto has held its last three opponents at Air Canada Centre to an average of 94 points. This sets up as an intense showdown battle between arguably the two best teams in each conference. Both teams are in action for the third time in four days. So I'm not expecting an up-tempo attack from either team. This should be a playoff-type game with far more defense than perceived.
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03-08-18 | Oregon v. Utah +2.5 | 68-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
Utah beat Oregon at Oregon by 10 earlier this season. Now the Utes catch Oregon off an OT win against Washington State yesterday. So a big scheduling edg goes to Utah. The Utes had a first-round bye and are playing better than the Ducks. The Utes are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. Utah has the necessary point guard in Justin Bibbins and big man David Collette can hurt Oregon inside. The Utes are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 Pac-12 games.
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03-08-18 | Celtics v. Wolves +2.5 | 117-109 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 52 m | Show | |
Much is being made of the Timberwolves being without Jimmy Buttler. But the Celtics are likely to be missing their best player, too. Kyrie Irving is doubtful with a knee injury. The Celtics are playing their third consecutive road game. The Timberwolves have had five full days of rest after returning from a West Coast trip where they lost to Portland and Utah in their last two games. The Timberwolves should be rested and ready. Minnesota has been dominant at Target Center winning 15 of its last 16 there, including covering 11 of its last 14. Boston has failed to cover during four of its past five visits to Minnesota.
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03-08-18 | LSU v. Mississippi State UNDER 144.5 | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
These two teams just met this past Saturday and LSU held Mississippi State to 58 points while scoring 78. Now the teams meet again being very familiar with one another and in a much critical game as this is the second round of the SEC Tournament. The Tigers shot 51.9 percent from the field and hit 47.8 percent of their 3-point shots. I don't see a repeat of that here. Mississippi State ranks among the top 60 teams in the nation in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. Note the neutral site, Scottrade Center in St. Louis, being the venue. That's a plus for the Under. This is a big arena where the St. Louis Blues play their home hockey games and is known as an Under arena for basketball teams. The SEC Tournament has never been held there until this year. So it's unfamilar to both teams. |
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03-08-18 | SMU v. Connecticut +2 | 80-73 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 26 m | Show | |
SMU couldn't beat Connecticut when it had leading scorer Shake Milton and I don't see it beating the Huskies without him. SMU is 1-8 since Milton suffered a broken hand. The Mustangs are 2-6-1 ATS during this time frame. |
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03-07-18 | Magic +7 v. Lakers | Top | 107-108 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
The Lakers haven't been this high of a favorite since they had Magic Johnson. OK, not true. They were minus 8 hosting the Suns a month ago. But you get the point. This is a very high spread for the rebuilding, youthful Lakers to cover especially against a team that is way below-the-radar in terms of excellent point spread marks and talent. Orlando is a lottery team just like the Lakers. But the Magic have an underrated roster especially now with rookie Jonathan Isaac healthy joining Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier. The Magic are much better than other lottery teams such as the Kings, Suns and Hawks. So the Lakers are overpriced here especially without their second-leading scorer Brandon Ingram, who is out with strained groin. The Magic actually hold a winning record - 10-8 - in games Isaac has played in. The rookie power forward, who was the sixth overall draft pick, had missed two months with a sprained ankle. Orlando has some surprising ATS marks such as covering 15 of the last 20 times as an underdog and going 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road contests. The Magic laid an egg against Utah's tough defense in their last game this past Monday at Salt Lake City. Orlando, though, has covered seven of the last eight times following an ATS loss. The Magic have covered 69 percent of their last 23 games and should find scoring a lot easier operating against the soft Lakers rather than the Jazz. LA is giving up an average of 115 points in its last nine games. The teams met in Orlando on Jan. 31 and the Magic blasted the Lakers, 127-105, despite not having Gordon then. Gordon leads Orlando in scoring and is averaging 17.2 points and 8.5 rebounds during his last six games.
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03-07-18 | Rockets v. Bucks OVER 215 | 110-99 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
The Rockets are the No. 2 scoring team and have far too many weapons for the Bucks to slow them down. Houston has scored 119 or more points in four of its last six games. The Bucks had matchup problems against the Pacers in two of their last three games, but produced 118 points in their last home game. That was against the 76ers, who rank in the top three in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point shooting. Milwaukee has faced only two Western Conference opponents during its past 16 games. The Bucks gave up 134 points at home to the Nuggets and 114 points to the Pelicans in regulation also at home during those two meetings, both losses.
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03-07-18 | Notre Dame -125 v. Virginia Tech | 71-65 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show | |
Look for Notre Dame to play much better than it did against Pittsburgh yesterday. The Irish are 4-0 ATS following a non-cover. The return of Bomzie Colson makes Notre Dame a much better team than this spread indicates. |
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03-07-18 | Louisville v. Florida State | 82-74 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Louisville needs to play great defense to beat Florida State. I don't see that happening. This has been a down season for the Cardinals on the court and a terrible one for them off the court. I The two teams split their two games this season. Louisville won the first meeting in Tallahassee, coming back from a 17-point deficit. Florida State won the remtch, 80-76, early last month. Since that time, the Seminoles have been getting major contributions from sophomore guard Trent Forrest and freshman center Ike Obiagu. Forrest is averaging 14.8 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.6 assists during the last five games. Those two weren't major factors in the previous games between the teams. They give Florida State an added edge. Not only do the Cardinals have to deal with the pressure to win this game with their NCAA Tournament hopes likely hanging in the balance, but their defense slipped during February. They enter this matchup in bad form, too, losers of four of their last five games. Louisville also has failed to cover in its past four neutral site games. |
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03-06-18 | Pelicans v. Clippers -131 | Top | 121-116 | Loss | -131 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
The Pelicans are riding an eight-game win streak. The Clippers have been playing well, too, winning 11 of their last 15 games. The Pelicans have defeated a lot of bad teams in compiling their win streak beating the Nets, Pistons, Lakers, Suns and Mavericks. The Clippers need this game trailing the Pelicans by two games for the last playoff spot in the West. The Clippers have the stronger bench and are playing home. That's huge in this series. The Pelicans have lost in their last eight road games against the Clippers going 2-6 ATS in those matchups. The Clippers are 15-7-1 in their last 23 Western Conference games. They have one of the best rim protectors, DeAndre Jordan, in the NBA to neutralize Anthony Davis. LA has been winning with offense, though, scoring 122 or more points in all but one of its last seven games. New Orleans has the second-worst defense in the league. |
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03-05-18 | BYU +5.5 v. St. Mary's | 85-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
St. Mary's had to exert a lot of energy to get past stubborn 10th-seeded Pepperdine in Saturday's West Coast Conference tournament quarterfinals. The Gaels are going to need to play better to cover this number against BYU. This was the fifth time in their last six conference games that the Gaels have failed to cover the spread. |
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03-05-18 | Blazers -118 v. Lakers | Top | 108-103 | Win | 100 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
Portland has owned the Lakers winning 14 consecutive games against them, including the past eight in LA. Both teams are playing well, but the Trail Blazers are the superior team, in a better situational spot and have been strong as road chalk going 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS the past 12 times in that role. The Trail Blazers are riding a season-best six-game win streak. They are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 Western Conference games. Their backcourt is playing at an extremely high level especially Damian Lillard, who ranks sixth in scoring and 12th in assists. The Lakers rank 27th defense. They are giving up an average of 115.8 points per game during their last eight games. Yet the spread is close to pick because the Lakers have won five consecutive games and are home. LA could be flat, though, since it just concluded a four-game road trip with an impressive 116-112 win against the Spurs Saturday night. Notice who the Lakers beat in their other four games during their win streak - Mavericks, Kings, Hawks and Heat. Portland, by contrast, has defeated some very good teams during its win streak knocking off the Warriors, Jazz, Timberwolves and Thunder. |
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03-05-18 | Pistons +7 v. Cavs | 90-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Detroit is hard to get behind right now. I understand that. But the Cavaliers' record in these type of games is astounding - astoundingly horrific. Cleveland has failed to cover 21 of the past 25 times as favorites. The Cavaliers are 3-23 ATS at home versus opponents with a losing road mark. Cleveland will be dealing with Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin minus front-court starters Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson along with reserve Jeff Green. Thompson was averaging 11 rebounds per game during Cleveland's last four games. Thompson's absence puts unsung rookie Ante Zizic likely into the rotation. The Cavaliers are 4-4 since dealing for George Hill, Jordan Clarkson, Larry Nance Jr. and Rodney Hood. They are better than they were without this infusion of youth and athleticism, but are going through an adjustment period and are not an elite team right now. The Pistons were 19-14 before point guard Reggie Jackson was injured. They are 6-8 since trading for Blake Griffin. They trail the Heat by four games for the final playoff spot in the East and trying to hang in as Jackson could returning to the lineup possibly next week. So the Pistons should play hard here. Griffin and Drummond give them a frontcourt edge on the Cavaliers. Detroit defeated Cleveland in the previous meeting, 125-114, achieving the victory without Griffin and Jackson. |
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03-04-18 | Pacers v. Wizards -3.5 | 98-95 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
The Wizards are the better team, are playing home and catch the Pacers at the end of a four-game, seven-day road trip. Indiana opened its road trip losing to the Hawks and Mavericks before beating the Bucks two days ago. The Wizards have lost their last two games. Those matchups, however, were against the Warriors and Raptors. Those teams have the second and third-best records, respectively, in the NBA. Prior to meeting those two powerful foes, the Wizards had won 10 of 13. Now the Wizards are stepping way down in class. Washington remains without point guard John Wall. But the Pacers are without their main point guard, too, with Darren Collison sidelined due to a knee injury. The Wizards are 10-5 minus Wall. The Pacers are below .500 on the road and have lost in their last four visits to Washington. The Wizards won the last get together, 111-102, beating the Pacers at Indiana on Feb. 5.
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03-04-18 | Pacers v. Wizards UNDER 209.5 | 98-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
This has the makings of a sloppy, slow-paced matchup due to the scheduling layout. The Pacers are 9-2-1 to the Under in their last 12 away games. They could be dragging here as this marks the end of their four-game, seven-day road trip. The Pacers gutted out a tough, physical road victory against the Bucks Friday night. They remain without their starting point guard, Darren Collison. Washington also is off a tough Friday night game falling to the Raptors. Turnovers have been plaguing the Wizards lately. They've committed 33 in the last two games. The Under has cashed in the Wizards' last four games.
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03-04-18 | Michigan v. Purdue OVER 137 | 75-66 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
Michigan is playing its best basketball. The Wolverines have been extremely consistent scoring 72 or more points during each of their last eight games. During this span, Michigan is averaging 77.7 points per game. |
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03-03-18 | UC-Davis v. Cal-Irvine UNDER 132 | Top | 90-84 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
There were just 117 points scored when these teams last met back in January with UC Davis winning, 64-53. The Aggies had their leading scorer and rebounder, Chima Moneke, for that game. He scored 20 points in that game and averages 18.4 points on the season. However, Moneke is suspended and won't play here. At stake in this matchup is the Big West Conference title. So I expect the intensity and defensive pressure to be as strong as it has been all season. UC Davis ranks 64th defensively. Irvine is even better defensively ranking 42nd and and fourth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. The Anteaters won't have to deal with Moneke either. Cal Irvine plays at a slow pace, too, which is an added plus for the Under. The Under has cashed in 17 of the Anteaters' last 22 games. This series has an Under history, too, with four of the last five going below the total. The Under has cashed six of the past seven times the teams have met at Irvine.
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03-03-18 | Jazz v. Kings OVER 202 | 98-91 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
The teams last met on Jan. 17 and the Jazz won 120-105 for a total of 225 points being scored. Utah is a defensive-minded team, but put up 116 points against Minnesota at home last night. The Jazz play looser on the road. In four of their last five road games they scored 129 points, 120, 133 and 115 points versus the Trail Blazers during their last away matchup. The Kings rank in the bottom-three in defensive field goal percentage and three-point defense. The Kings are 20-7-1 in their last 28 Western Conference games. The Over has cashed in seven of the last 10 meetings between the two teams in Sacramento. |
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03-03-18 | Nevada v. San Diego State -130 | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
San Diego State is playing its best basketball. The Aztecs have won five in a row with the winning margin being nearly 16 points per game. |
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03-03-18 | Georgetown +19 v. Villanova | 73-97 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
Villanova has no reason to play especially hard in this lopsided matchup, especially following consecutive overtime games in which their starters logged heavy minutes. The Wildcats don't have a lot of depth and must not burn out their starters with the Big East Tournament approaching. Georgetown usually can be counted on to play hard. The Hoyas have been at their best as Big East underdogs covering seven of eight times in that role with three straight-up victories. The Hoyas also have covered in their last four road games. |
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03-03-18 | Kansas -2.5 v. Oklahoma State | 64-82 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
Never mind that Kansas has already won the Big 12 Conference crown again. The Jayhawks have had this game circled ever since Oklahoma State upset them, 84-79, as 12-point road underdogs. |
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03-02-18 | Wolves v. Jazz UNDER 208.5 | 108-116 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
The Jazz are back to being a premier defensive club with Rudy Gobert back at 100 percent. The Jazz haven't surrendered more than 100 points during any of their last eight games. During this span they are holding foes to an average of 95 points per game. The Timberwolves just lost 108-99 at Portland last night. Their starters played big minutes. So the Timberwolves won't be looking to play up-tempo. They also are without their best offensive player, Jimmy Butler. The Timberwolves are not a good defensive team, but the Jazz are averaging only 87.6 points in their last three games. |
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03-02-18 | Raptors -3 v. Wizards | 102-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
The Raptors are the best team in the Eastern Conference right now. They are hot with 11 victories in their last 13 games and have revenge motivation for a 122-119 road loss to the Wizards last month. Washington won that despite missing John Wall. The Raptors know first-hand now how the Wizards have adjusted their style minus their star point guard. I'm expecting a much stronger defensive performance. Toronto ranks among the top eight teams defensively while being the third-highest scoring team in the NBA. The Wizards carry a higher fatigue rating playing for the third time in four days and fourth in six days. The spread is low enough to get behind the superior team that has covered in eight of its last 10 games. |
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03-02-18 | Rhode Island +2 v. Davidson | 61-63 | Push | 0 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
I see Rhode Island atoning for an embarrassing 30-point home loss to St. Joe's in its last game. The Rams have defeated Davidson four straight times, including a 13-point winner at home in their last meeting. The Rams have won 18 of their last 20 games and have covered in 17 of their last 24 Atlantic 10 games. |
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03-02-18 | Pistons v. Magic +2.5 | 106-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Fading the Pistons on the road in this spread range is worth a small play. Detroit has lost 19 of its 28 road games. The Pistons' last road victory came against the Nets back on Jan. 10. Detroit is 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS in its last six away contests. The Pistons have covered just 27 percent of their last 34 games versus sub .500 opponents. Orlando is playing hard. The Magic hung in against the Thunder and Raptors, during their last two games, and are 3-3 ATS in their six home games, including a straight-up victory against the Cavaliers. The Pistons' strength is up front with Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin. They are weak in the backcourt. The Magic can match up to the Pistons up front with a healthy Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon. Rookie power forward Jonathan Isaac could provide a spark and needed defensive help as he's expected to play after missing the last 26 games with an ankle injury. The Magic rolled past the Pistons when they last hosted them winning, 102-89 on Dec. 28.
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03-02-18 | Pennsylvania v. Yale +1 | 79-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Penn is playing well. But so is Yale. The Bulldogs have won five of their last six. The Bulldogs also are in revenge mode for a 59-50 road loss to Penn in the previous meeting this season. |
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03-01-18 | Wolves v. Blazers -4.5 | Top | 99-108 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
The Timberwolves are 2-0 since their on and off court leader Jimmy Butler suffered what likely is a regular season-ending knee injury. Those victories have come against the Bulls and Kings, two of the worst teams in the NBA. Now the Timberwolves face their first real test since Butler went down: a road game against the Trail Blazers, who have won four in a row. I don't see Minnesota passing this test. This isn't a good time to be playing on the road against the Trail Blazers, who are are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games. Damian Lillard is playing as well as anyone in the NBA averaging 37.1 points in his last six games. Portland is jockeying for playoff position and should encounter little trouble scoring big against the Timberwolves. The Timberwolves rank second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage. Portland is averaging 111.2 points in its last four games. Minnesota is a poor road club, too. The Timberwolves are 14-17 ATS away from Target Center, failing to cover in six of their last eight road matchups. They are 0-3 SU and ATS during their past three visits to Moda Center, including losing 123-114, to Portland on Jan. 24.
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03-01-18 | 76ers v. Cavs -155 | 108-97 | Loss | -155 | 17 h 45 m | Show | |
Is it time to trust the Cavaliers? I believe so, at least in this spot. As terrible as the Cavaliers were laying points during the first half of the season, they still won and covered their two earlier meetings against the 76ers winning by an average of 14.5 points. The retooled Cavaliers are a better team now having traded for George Hill, Jordan Clarkson, Rodney Hood and Larry Nance Jr., who is coming off his first double-double with Cleveland. Give LeBron James weapons that fit and improve team chemistry and Cleveland is a legitimate threat again to win the Eastern Conference. The 76ers have taken the big step of being a playoff team this season. However, they rank below the elite teams of the Eastern Conference - Raptors, Celtics and Cavaliers. Philadelphia is much better at home. They are 1-6 in their last seven road games. The 76ers still lack the maturity to beat tough foes on the road whether it's shooting poorly, or committing too many turnovers. This marks the 76ers' fourth game in six days, too. Cleveland has dominated this series winning 14 of the last 15, including the past 11. James just doesn't lose to this team.
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03-01-18 | Lakers v. Heat -3.5 | 131-113 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 6 m | Show | |
Miami is a top-four defensive team that is well-coached and has a solid bench. The Lakers are fancy with a lot of youth and questionable maturity. The situation sets up well here for the home Heat. Miami has been home since Saturday. The Lakers are fat and happy winners of three in a row. Note that those victories have come against the tanking Mavericks, Kings and Hawks. The Lakers have had a couple of days to enjoy the distractions of South Beach. LA is 1-4 ATS the past five times when playing on two days rest. The Lakers also have failed to cover during seven of their past nine visits to Miami. The Lakers are nine games below .500 on the road. I see the veteran Heat being the more focused team. They can't afford a loss here holding on to the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Miami's front-court and bench strength just improved with the return of center Kelly Olynyk from a shoulder injury. Dwayne Wade has made his presence known, too, with his savvy play. Miami surrenders 101.6 points per game. Only three teams allow less per game. The Lakers are giving up an average of 117 points during their last six game
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02-28-18 | Nevada -3 v. UNLV | Top | 101-75 | Win | 100 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
Nevada is much the better team, has a far superior coach and this is the Wolf Pack's Revenge Game of the Year. UNLV handed Nevada its lone home loss of the season, winning 86-78 three weeks ago. That loss came in front of Nevada's eighth-largest crowd in Lawlor Events Center history. The Wolf Pack were missing their top scorer, Caleb Martin. He was out with a foot sprain. Nevada didn't play well, though. and the Rebels shot a blistering 50.8 percent from the floor. Credit to UNLV because it did play extremely well in that game. This is a bitter, bitter rivalry. UNLV, a classless program, did a lot of trash talking during and following that win. The Wolf Pack haven't forgotten. They've been pointing to this matchup ever since. Martin is back and will play. Reno hasn't been swept in a season series by the Rebels since 2012-13, which was its first year in the Mountain West Conference. UNLV has a size advantage on the Wolf Pack. But Nevada can take advantage of UNLV's weak transition defense. Nevada has won the Mountain West Conference title already, but the Wolf Pack will be focused and highly motivated for this game. Nevada coach Eric Musselman said he won't be resting anybody that his team will be going all out. Musselman is a far better coach than UNLV's Marvin Menzies. UNLV has lost and failed to cover its last three games, including losing to Fresno State, 77-64, as a two-point favorite during its last home game. The Rebels don't have the home attendance they used to have because of the decline in their program. They have covered only two of their last 10 home contests.
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02-28-18 | Pelicans v. Spurs -4.5 | 121-116 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
Back from their annual rodeo trip, the Spurs are playing at home for the first time in 25 days. I'm expecting a strong effort. San Antonio last played on Sunday. The Spurs won't play again until Saturday. Focus won't be an issue. San Antonio has covered 63 percent of its home games this season. The Spurs have been far better at home than on the road. New Orleans is playing its best ball of the season. The Pelicans are only 1 1/2 games behind the Spurs for fourth place in the Western Conference. San Antonio definitely is going to perceive a challenge here. I have a lot of faith in Gregg Popovich, who I regard as the best coach in basketball. The Spurs went 2-4 on their road swing. However, their last game was a confidence-inspiring 110-94 victory against the rejuvenated Cavaliers. Kawhi Leonard remains out for San Antonio. But unsung point guard Dejounte Murray is developing into a star. The Spurs have the coaching, depth, right situation and spot to cover this number.
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02-28-18 | Thunder -4.5 v. Mavs | 111-110 | Loss | -113 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
The Mavericks upset the Pacers, 109-103, at home this past Monday. That ended a four-game losing streak and makes the Mavericks a bit fat and happy for this matchup. Dallas hasn't not won back-to-back games during their last 18 games. Oklahoma City's superstars have been complaining about not getting enough calls. That could change here. The Thunder hold the star power and rebounding edge to cover this number. They also have revenge motivation. The Mavericks upset the Thunder, 116-113, on New Year's Eve in Oklahoma City. Dallas also whipped the Thunder at home early in the season. The Thunder haven't been good as chalk this season - big chalk that is. As favorites of five points or fewer, the Thunder have covered 10 of the last 13 times.
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02-28-18 | Ole Miss v. Kentucky -8.5 | 78-96 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
Kentucky has picked a good time to get back untrack. The Wildcats are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three games. During this span, they have posted double-digit victories against Alabama, Arkansas and Missouri. |
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02-28-18 | Illinois v. Iowa | 87-96 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Iowa is a great fade now that it is tournament time. The Hawkeyes are 2-7 in the Big Ten Tournament under Fran McCaffrey. They have lost in the first round the past four seasons. |
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02-27-18 | Kings +12 v. Blazers | 99-116 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
I don't see Portland taking Sacramento that serious following the Kings' 118-100 home loss to the Timberwolves last night. The Kings, though, have covered in their last four away matchups. They catch the Trail Blazers in a flat spot. Portland is playing at home for the first time in two weeks. Portland has bigger games on deck, too, hosting the Timberwolves on Thursday and Thunder on Saturday. Sacramento can't match Portland's backcourt star power, but the Kings have some promising youth - DeAaron Fox, Bogdan Bogdanovich and Willie Cauley Stein - to go with veterans Vince Carter and Zach Randolph and decent bench players in Buddy Hield and Skai Labissiere. They've helped the Kings go 8-4 ATS the past 12 times Sacramento has been a 'dog of five or more points.
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02-27-18 | Oklahoma v. Baylor -3 | 64-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Baylor is playing better since losing 98-96 to Oklahoma during the first meeting between the two teamsd. The Bears are 5-2 SU and ATS since that loss. |
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02-26-18 | Texas Tech v. West Virginia UNDER 141.5 | 74-84 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
The Under has won in 10 of Texas Techs last 13 road games. I see that trend continuing in this matchup, which shapes up to be a tight, intense defensive struggle. |
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02-26-18 | Pacers -135 v. Mavs | Top | 103-109 | Loss | -135 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
Not only are the red-hot Pacers playing their best ball, but they catch the Mavericks reeling from a double body blow of their owner Mark Cuban admitting his team is tanking and sexual misconduct allegation in the Dallas front office. The Mavericks are toxic right now. They aren't a very good home team either with an 11-19 record, 13-17 ATS. The Pacers have their season-best winning percentage. Indiana is 15-6 in its last 21 games. The Pacers have won four in a row and have a strong record of beating poor teams going 21-8 versus sub .500 opponents. They are 6-1 ATS the past seven times laying points on the road. The Mavericks are 2-11 in their last 13 games and 3-14 in their last 17 games. Dallas is last in reboundings. Indiana has improved its rebounding with Myles Turner back to 100 percent. The Pacers rank in the top-five in field goal percentage and 3-point shooting. Dallas is giving up an average of 113.8 points during its last six games.
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02-26-18 | Suns +7.5 v. Pelicans | 116-125 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
I understand it's difficult to pull the trigger on the Suns especially when they are on the road. But this is a golden spot for Phoenix. The Pelicans are playing for the third time in four days. They defeated the Heat in overtime at home on Friday. New Orleans followed that up by coming back from an 18-point second-half deficit to beat the Bucks in overtime on the road Sunday. Anthony Davis played 43:21 minutes and Jrue Holiday logged 41:31 minutes against the Bucks. It's likley Davis and Holiday, the Pelicans' two best players with DeMarcus Cousins out, are going to see a reduction in minutes. If the Suns aren't competive early, the backdoor should swing wide open during garbage time as the Pelicans are in a huge letdown spot not only because of the situation but also playing the bottom-feeding Suns. The Pelicans are 1-8 ATS the past nine times hosting a foe with a losing road mark. New Orleans takes off for a four-game road trip following this matchup beginning with a tough game against the Spurs on Wednesday. So focus also is an issue for New Orleans and Alvin Gentry isn't one of the better coaches in the league. The Suns nearly upset the Trail Blazers in their last game losing 106-104 this past Saturday. Recently acquired Elfrid Payton continues to play well for Phoenix.
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02-25-18 | Rockets v. Nuggets OVER 225 | 119-114 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
The Houston Rockets are the second-highest team in the NBA. The Rockets just put up 130 points on the Nuggets when the teams last played on Feb. 9. |
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02-25-18 | 76ers v. Wizards -125 | Top | 94-109 | Win | 100 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
Washington has defeated Philadelphia seven times in a row at home. I expect that streak to continue. The number is short because the 76ers have won a season-high eight games in a row and the Wizards are minus John Wall. Philadelphia, though, won six of those games at home. The 76ers have a losing road record. The 76ers have played weak competition lately. Their last four games have been against the Magic, Bulls, Heat and Knicks. This represents a big step up. Philadelphia also is playing without rest. Joel Embiid has played only twice in his pro career on back-to-back games. Washington is 8-3 without Wall. So the Wizards haven't missed their star point guard as much as perceived. The Wizards won't lack for motivation. Not only are they off an embarrassing 122-105 home loss to the sub .500 Hornets two days ago, but have double revenge against the 76ers. The Wizards had just upset the Cavaliers on the road on Thursday. So the spot was terrible for them against the Hornets. Both of Washington's losses to the 76ers were on the road, including a 115-102 loss on Feb. 6. The 76ers shot a blistering 55.6 percent from the floor in that game. The Wizards are above average in defensive field goal percentage and rank third in 3-point defense.
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02-25-18 | Penn State v. Nebraska -117 | 64-76 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
Nebraska has been a monster money-maker this season. This has been especially so at home where the Cornhuskers have covered 10 of the past 11 times. All together, the Cornhuskers have covered an amazing 14 of their last 16 Big Ten games. |
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02-24-18 | Arizona v. Oregon -2 | 93-98 | Win | 100 | 19 h 48 m | Show | |
The Ducks received a huge boost in confidence beating 25th-ranked Arizona State on Thurday. But the major part of this handicap is a fade on Arizona, which is likely to be minus second-leading scorer Allonzo Trier, who was declared ineligible by the NCAA this week for testing positive for a banned substance. The Wildcats have a much bigger problem than this, though. There's the real possibility that their best player, Deandre Ayton, could be suspended along with head coach Sean Miller. The latest news is all about an FBI investigation into the Arizona program with Miller and Ayton at the center of the storm. This obviously is a huge distraction.
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02-24-18 | Bulls v. Wolves -6 | Top | 104-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
I don't expect Jimmy Butler to play after he injured his knee in the Timberwolves' 120-102 road loss to the Rockets last night. Butler's injury has had a drastic affect on this line. Too much in my view. The Timberwolves still have the three best players on the court in Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Jeff Teague. Minnesota has been dominant at home going 13-1 SU, 10-4 ATS with the lone loss occurring to the Rockets during this span. The Bulls are a far cry from the Rockets, who I consider the second-best team in the NBA and very close to the Warriors. Chicago has lost 10 of its last 12 games and has failed to cover in nine of its last 11. One of those victories, though, was against the Timberwolves at home, 114-113, on Feb. 9. The Timberwolves want revenge in what has become a grudge matchup because of Butler and Tom Thibodeau's former ties to Chicago. The Bulls are committed to rebuilding, even tanking, benching Robin Lopez and Justin Holiday in favor of Cristiano Felicio and David Nwaba. Cameron Payne also is seeing more time at backup point guard.
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02-24-18 | Massachusetts v. George Mason OVER 147 | 76-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
The Over has cashed in 68 percent of George Mason's last 63 home games. I'm going to ride that string. This should be a loosely played game featuring lots of scoring. UMass's defense has gone downhill. That's reflected in the Over cashing during UMass's last eight games. The Minutemen have surrendered 82 or more points in each of their last eight games. |
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02-24-18 | Magic +9.5 v. 76ers | 105-116 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
The Magic's two best players, Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon, are healthy now. Both should be better in sync after getting in a game following the All-Star break. The 76ers are a viable playoff team. But I don't like them in this high of a point spread range. Philadelphia has failed to cover eight of the last 11 times versus opponents with a winning percentage below .400. Philadelphia has three big road games on tap starting with Sunday's matchup against the Wizards. That's followed by a Tuesday game against the Heat and then Thursday versus the Cavaliers. So this isn't an all-out spot for the 76ers. Orlando is well below the radar spread-wise covering its last eight road games while going 13-4 ATS in its last 17 overall games.
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02-23-18 | Spurs +4 v. Nuggets | 119-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
I'll take Gregg Popovich against any coach given extra prep time, which is the case here. The Spurs have had nine days to think about a 117-109 road loss to the Nuggets in their final game before the All-Star break. San Antonio had defeated Denver five straight times before that loss. The Nuggets caught the Spurs playing without rest after having been at Utah the night before. So that marked two consecutive games in high altitude. The Spurs also were minus LaMarcus Aldridge, their best player with Kawhi Leonard out, and Rudy Gay in that game. Aldridge should play for sure here. The Spurs have traditionally fared well in Denver covering in 21 of their last 29 visits.
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02-23-18 | Clippers -4.5 v. Suns | Top | 128-117 | Win | 100 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
The Clippers have already played a game following the long All-Star break losing 134-127 to Golden State on the road last night. The Clippers are more experienced, professional and deeper than the Suns, an opponent they have dominated winning 15 of the past 17 times. This includes a 2-0 mark this season with the average victory being by 27 1/2 points. The Suns are in the argument for worst team in the NBA. They are tied for the fewest victories with 18 and have lost 12 of their last 13 games and 15 of 17. Of the Suns' past 13 losses, 10 have come by double-digits. The Clippers have regained legitimate playoff contender status going 13-6 in their last 19 games. They are 5-2 since dealing Blake Griffin to the Pistons for Tobias Harris and Avery Bradley. LA steps way down in class here after just playing the Warriors. There should be no fatigue factor for the Clippers having been idle for so long before playing last night. There will be a rust factor, though, for the Suns. There's also a maturity issue for the youthful Suns to see how they react from being off since Feb. 14.
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02-23-18 | Cavs -5 v. Grizzlies | 112-89 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
The Cavaliers are much improved since acquiring George Hill, Rodney Hood, Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr. at the trade deadline. They are better defensively, younger and more athletic. They also have better chemistry. I was surprised when Cleveland lost last night at home to Washington. Memphis, though, isn't nearly as good as the Wizards. The Grizzlies, in fact, are tied for the fewest wins in the league with an 18-38 record. The Grizzlies have dropped seven in a row. They are facing the cold reality of missing the postseason for the first time in eight years. The Cavaliers are not only the better team but have stronger motivation and the edge of already having played a game following the nine-day All-Star break.
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02-23-18 | Celtics -115 v. Pistons | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
Detroit is 5-3 since acquiring Blake Griffin. The Pistons are tough up front now with Griffin and Andre Drummond. But their backcourt is weaker minus traded Avery Bradley and with Reggie Jackson sidelined. The Celtics can exploit this. Boston gets back defensive ace Marcus Smart from injury and astute Brad Stevens has had more than a week to game plan. I consider Stevens the top coach in the Eastern Conference. Even if the Pistons are improved following the Griffin trade - and that can't be fully determined yet - they still are a borderline playoff team at best and they hold a losing record. Boston is two levels higher than Detroit and is in the discussion for being the best team in the East. The Celtics limped into the All-Star break having lost three straight home games. I expect Stevens to right the ship following the long break. The Pistons are playing in their new Little Caesars Arena, but their homecourt advantage is overrated. They have failed to cover in 11 of their last 13 home contests. Boston has covered in its last four visits to Detroit.
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02-23-18 | Harvard +1.5 v. Princeton | 72-66 | Win | 100 | 3 h 2 m | Show | |
Harvard is on an 8-3-1 against the spread run. The Crimson just rolled past Princeton by 15 points two weeks ago. Now look at the line. So I definitely believe there is value on the Crimson. |
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02-23-18 | St. Peter's v. Quinnipiac -118 | 52-43 | Loss | -118 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
The Bobcats of Quinnipiac have covered in seven of their last nine games. I like them to beat St. Peter's at home. The Bobcats have strong revenge motivation for an 84-58 road loss to St. Peter's back early last month when they weren't playing as well. |
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02-22-18 | Wizards v. Cavs -5 | Top | 110-103 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
Cleveland is 2-0 against Washington this season - and this is when the Cavaliers' roster and chemistry was much worse than it is now. Spread-wise, the Cavaliers were the most disappointing team in the league pre All-Star break. But now the rebuild Cavaliers are much different and much better. They have won four straight games since retooling their roster getting young, more athletic and better defensively. Cleveland's offense hasn't suffered either. The Cavaliers are averaging 126 points during their four-game win streak. This is Cleveland's first home game, too, with its new fully integrated roster. The Wizards couldn't beat the Cavaliers when they had John Wall and I don't see them hanging close without him especially given the circumstances that line up here.
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02-22-18 | Nets +7.5 v. Hornets | 96-111 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
The Hornets are just 15-15 at home. They are a lottery team just like the Nets and have no business laying this many points. The Nets limped into break losing seven in a row. They should come back rest, refreshed and rejuvenated. Brooklyn also should be at full strength with Rondae-Hollis Jefferson and Caris LeVert expected to play after being out. Jefferson is an especially underrated player for Brooklyn. Brooklyn showed no quit last season winning 11 games after the All-Star break. The Nets have the fifth-best spread mark in the NBA and have covered seven of their last 10 road contests. There's a randomness factor, too, with both teams coming off a long break. Randomness is good when backing an underdog. Charlotte had a distracting bye week with the decision to look for a new general manager. The Hornets also have failed to cover the past six times after being idle for three days or more.
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02-21-18 | San Diego State v. Air Force +8.5 | Top | 67-56 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
In terms of straight-up record, Air Force is a bottom-three Mountain West Conference team. Point spread-wise, though, the Falcons are very strong. They have covered in nine of their last 12 league games and are 7-1 ATS at home this season. This coincides with San Diego State being a bad road team. The Aztecs are a middle-of-the-pack Mountain West team that is strong at home, weak on the road where they are 1-6 in conference play. This includes losses during their past five away matchups. San Diego State enters this matchup fat and happy after burying UNLV, 94-56, at home this past Saturday. That was the Aztecs' most lopsided victory against the Rebels in the 69-game history of the series. Now the Aztecs draw ninth place Air Force and last place San Jose State. So this doesn't shape up as a challenging week for them. The Falcons are going to be the more motivated team. They have revenge for an embarrassing 81-50 road loss to San Diego State from 18 days ago. Air Force only was able to shoot nine free throws in that game. Air Force upset New Mexico, 100-92, in its last home contest. Air Force has been on the road its past two games losing to UNLV and Boise State. Now the Falcons are back home. They are 16-5-1 ATS following a loss. The Falcons have covered four of the last five times against San Diego State at home, including winning straight-up last season, 60-57, as 6 1/2-point home 'dogs. They are 9-2 (82%) ATS the past 11 times versus San Diego State.
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02-20-18 | Rutgers v. Ohio State UNDER 129 | 52-79 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
Rutgers is a premier defensive team giving up the 12th fewest points in the country. But the Scarlet Knights are horrendous on offense and going against Ohio State's top-50 defense. |
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02-20-18 | Illinois +16 v. Michigan State | 61-81 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Michigan State has covered just one of its last eight games. The Spartans could be distracted by Senior Night and still on Cloud Nine after rallying from 27 points down to beat Northwestern this past Saturday in the greatest comeback in Big Ten history. Illinois lost to Michigan State by 13 points in the first meeting despite the Spartans shooting a record 68.2 percent from the floor. The Illini have played better since that loss and should have their confidence up after snapping a four-game losing skid with a win against Nebraska on Saturday. Illinois is 5-1-1 ATS during its last seven visits to Michigan State, too.
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02-19-18 | Youngstown State v. Northern Kentucky -16.5 | 51-70 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
Northern Kentucky is coming off a loss. I see the Norse being fired up to bury a very bad Youngstown State. The Penguins are giving up more than 87 points per game during their last seven games. Northern Kentucky has the potent offense to take advantage averaging nearly 77 points a game. The teams met earlier at Youngstown State and Northern Kentucky won by double-digits. Now the Norse are home off a loss. They are 4-1 ATS following a loss.
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02-19-18 | Miami-FL v. Notre Dame UNDER 140 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
Minus star guard Bruce Brown Jr., Miiami has averaged only 52.5 points during its last two games. The Hurricanes are going to have to be patient and hit their shots if they want to pull an upset because Notre Dame has committed the fewest fouls in the country and fewest fouls per game. Notre Dame, though, has its own key injury as Bonzie Colson remains out. Matt Ferrell has been playing great, but can't be expected to score a career-high 37 points like he did in Notre Dame's last game, a victory against Boston College. The Irish play at a slow tempo, which is good for the Under, and Miami has the fourth-ranked defense in the ACC giving up 66 points per game. The Hurricanes also rank in the top-30 in the country in 3-point defense.
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02-18-18 | Team LeBron v. Team Stephen UNDER 341 | 148-145 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
In each of the last four years the total points in the NBA All-Star Game has been broken. The culmination was last year's game won by the West, 192-182. Those 374 combined points are the record. So why go Under the total this year? Because the league wants this game to become less farcical and more of a competitive matchup. That means intensity and some defense sprinkled in among the dunks and 3-point bombs. The league changed the format to where the All-Star rosters were picked by LeBron James and Stephen Curry. That could increase the pride level. The prize money for the winning team has been doubled, too, from $50,000 to $100,000. Six-figures isn't chump change even for NBA superstar millionaires. Several players have said these changes should increase the quality of play. I'm certainly not expecting playoff-caliber defense and intensity. But I am anticipating more than just what has been a glorified scrimmage. Yes, there still will be a lot of easy baskets scored. But with a total this high just a few minutes of cold shooting, or increased defensive pressure, is all that is needed to make this an Under.
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02-18-18 | Penn State v. Purdue -7.5 | 73-76 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
Purdue is in stop-the-pain mode having lost consecutive close games to Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconson. The Boilermakers are better than Penn State, highly motivated and at home where they have won 14 of 15 times. Penn State last won at Mackey Arena in 2006, a string of 10 consecutive road losses. The Boilermakers rank seventh in the nation in 3-point accuracy at 41.9 percent yet they have made only 32.1 percent of their beyond the arc shots in their last three games. A correction is due. Penn State is just average in 3-point defense. The Nittany Lions are playing well, but a letdown could be in store following their 79-56 burial of Ohio State at home on Thursday. Purdue has dominated this series winning the past five times. |
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02-18-18 | Nebraska -125 v. Illinois | 66-72 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
I have to keep riding Nebraska, which has covered a mind-boggling 16 of its last 17 games, including its last eight games. Usually when the line is at minus 2 or less, I like to protect myself with a money line play. That's the case here especially with Nebraska winning the first meeting between these two teams by just one point. Tim Miles has done a masterful job with the Cornhuskers, who have won seven in a row and eight of their last nine. Illinois, by contrast, has lost four in a row. The Illini has allowed foes to shoot 55.5 percent from the floor during the last three games. The Illini haven't been scoring either averaging only 64 points during their last four games. Nebraska is averaging 80 points in its last five games. |
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02-17-18 | Colorado v. Washington UNDER 142 | 59-82 | Win | 100 | 17 h 1 m | Show | |
Long-time Syracuse assistant coach Mike Hopkins has brought a tricky zone defense to Washington. So it's not a fluke the defensive-minded Huskies have gone Under the total in 10 of their last 12 games. |
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02-17-18 | Loyola Marymount +10.5 v. San Francisco | 63-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
This mainly is a fade on San Francisco. The Dons are coming off a huge upset home victory against St. Mary's two days ago. It's going to be hard for the Dons to get up for this matchup in such a short time span. The Dons are 2-7 ATS following a victory. |
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02-15-18 | Utah v. Washington UNDER 142 | 70-58 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show | |
Not only is Mike Hopkins a great coach, but he's a great Under the total coach, too, as Washington has gone below the total in nine of its last 11 games. That's because the Huskies play a zone defense similar to what Syracuse runs and what Hopkins learned when he coached at Syracuse before coming to Washington. |
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02-15-18 | Nuggets v. Bucks -3 | Top | 134-123 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
The game before All-Star break often is tougher on the road team - and Denver is not a good road club. The Nuggets are 8-19 away from Pepsi Center, including 1-7 in their last eight road contests. Their lone road win during this span was against the Suns, who I rate as the worst team in the NBA. Denver is surrendering 114.2 points a game during its past eight road matchups. This is the Nuggets' fourth game in seven days - all at different venues. It's a lot of traveling for them made worse with All-Star break starting Friday. Conversely, the Bucks are a solid home team winning 19 of 28 at Bradley Center. They are 9-2 since interim coach Joe Prunty replaced Jason Kidd. Morale and defense are much improved for the Bucks since Kidd was let go. The Bucks made a below-the-radar, but astute trade acquiring center Tyler Zeller. He can bother Nuggets big man Nikola Jokic, who is having a big February.
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02-15-18 | Ohio State +1 v. Penn State | 56-79 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
I like Ohio State in this revenge spot against Penn State. The Nittany Lions dealt Ohio State its only Big Ten loss in the first meeting with a buzzer-beating basket. Penn State missed only three of 14 shots from beyond the arch in that victory against the Buckeyes. I don't expect the Nittany Lions to shoot like that again. |
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02-15-18 | NC-Greensboro v. The Citadel +10.5 | Top | 82-66 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
The Citadel has covered seven of its last nine games. The Bulldogs have posted upsets of Wofford and Furman and lost to East Tennessee State, the first place team in the Southern Conference, by just two points as a 15-point 'dog during their last three home games. Now The Citadel is another big home 'dog. This time to UNC Greensboro, which is in a dangerous situational spot. The Spartans just beat East Tennessee State at home on Monday in a huge game and has a more challenging road game against Mercer on Saturday. The Spartans have failed to cover in their last four games against the Bulldogs.
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02-14-18 | Kentucky +9.5 v. Auburn | 66-76 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
The last time Kentucky was this big of an underdog the Wildcats beat West Virginia, 83-76, as a 10-1/2 point road 'dog on Jan. 27. The Wildcats have the athleticism and talent to upset Auburn straight-up here, too. Kentucky holds a big height advantage and shouldn't be lacking for motivation with this lack of respect betting line. The Wildcats have never dropped four in a row under John Calipari. |
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02-14-18 | Lakers v. Pelicans UNDER 230.5 | Top | 117-139 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
The perception is that two horrendous defenses are facing each other in this matchup. If you go by season statistics that's true. The Lakers rank 25th defensively and just surrendered 130 points to the Mavericks, the most they've scored all season. The Pelicans rank second-to-last in points allowed per game. But the current reality doesn't fit the sterotype. The Lakers had held their four previous opponents to an average of 94.2 points a game before playing the Mavericks. Those teams were the Suns, Nets and Thunder twice. Not one of them scored more than 104 points and all three teams rank among the top 19 in scoring. The Pelicans are better defensively nowadays having traded for Nikola Mirotic and adding Emeka Okafor, a defensive-minded center who had been out of the NBA since 2012-13. The Pelicans are adjusting to life without DeMarcus Cousins and just held the Pistons to 103 points in their last game two days ago. The Pistons had scored 111 or more points in four of their last five games before losing to New Orleans. A key to the Pelicans' defensive success against the Pistons was Mirotic's fine work guarding Blake Griffin. The Lakers are dealing with a rust factor since they last played on Saturday. The extra time should help them defensively with added preparation, but three full days off isn't a positive for their shooting.
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02-14-18 | South Florida v. UCF OVER 123.5 | 57-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
Much has changed for Central Florida with Tacko Fall out. Since he's been injured the Over has cashed in five of the Knights' last six games. Fall may have been the premier defensive player in college basketball. So when I see a low total like this, I'm looking to go Over. |
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02-13-18 | LSU v. Alabama UNDER 148 | 65-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
Alabama is a great Under team at home going below the total in 73 percent of its last 60 home contests. The Crimson Tide are strong defensively again this season giving up 68.3 points a game, which ranks 74th in the nation. Alabama ranks No. 1 in the SEC, too, in points per possession defensively. LSU was held to 66 points at home by Alabama in the first meeting. The Tigers are averaging just 65 points during their last three road games.
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