Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-30-22 | Jazz +3.5 v. Kings | 125-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
It's not just the playoffs. There is plenty of zig and zag to the regular season, too. I see that playing out in this matchup where the Jazz are in stop-the-pain mode while the Kings are fat and happy after beating the Nuggets, the top team in the Western Conference, at home this past Wednesday. The Kings nipped the Nuggets, 127-126, scoring the winning point with less than a second left. The Jazz are 0-2 on their current road trip, which concludes with this game. Utah entered this road trip going 4-2 with its only losses during this span coming on the road to the Bucks and Cavaliers. However, Utah then was upset by the Spurs and Warriors two days ago. The Jazz blew a double-digit lead to the Warriors by scoring just 13 points in the fourth quarter. The Warriors were minus Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins. The Jazz should be motivated and ready for this matchup not wanting to go 0-3 on this road trip. They have covered during their last four visits to Sacramento and also are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games versus the Kings. |
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12-29-22 | Rockets +11.5 v. Mavs | Top | 114-129 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
So what do the Mavericks and Luka Doncic do for an encore after coming from nine points down with 33 seconds left in regulation to beat the Knicks in overtime with Doncic producing 60 points, 21 rebounds and 10 assists? The answer is they don't have an encore. Instead the Mavericks suffer a massive letdown hosting the Rockets, who have the worst record in the Western Conference. It's going to be difficult for the Mavericks to come down from the high of that improbable victory against the Knicks on Tuesday and Doncic's historic night. Prior to that game, teams trailing by nine points with under 35 seconds left were 0-13,884 during the last 20 years, according to research compiled by ESPN Stats and Info. The Mavericks have been terrible as mid-sized-to-big favorites. They are 3-15-1 ATS when laying 5 or more points. They also are 1-8-1 ATS the past 10 times against sub .500 foes. The Rockets are capable of springing upsets. They have defeated the Bucks, Suns and Bulls during their last nine games. Houston shouldn't lack motivation after getting buried by the Celtics in their last games two days ago. Houston has covered in four of its last five visits to Dallas. |
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12-28-22 | Bucks -4 v. Bulls | 113-119 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
The Bucks are in stop-the-pain mode losers of three in a row. I see the Bucks ending that losing streak against the Bulls whether they have Khris Middleton back in the lineup or not. The Bucks dominate the Bulls especially in Chicago where they have covered 14 of the last 17 times. The Bulls have lost their last three home games falling to the Rockets by 15, Knicks by 23 and Knicks by eight in overtime. |
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12-28-22 | Florida v. Auburn -5.5 | 58-61 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
I don't trust Florida to step up in class here. The Gators have lost neutral-court games to West Virginia, Xavier and Oklahoma by nine points in their last game eight days ago. The Gators' up-tempo style isn't a good fit against Auburn's stubborn defense. The Tigers rank in the top-15 in defensive efficiency, 3-point defense and blocked shots. The Tigers are 7-0 at home where they've been for the last week after an impressive, 84-61, road win against Washington. |
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12-27-22 | Clippers +4.5 v. Raptors | 124-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show | |
Expect the Clippers' starters to play much better after their bench rallied them to an overtime victory against the Pistons in Detroit last night. It was an improbable victory for the Clippers. They trailed, 126-112, with 3:34 left when Clippers coach Tyronn Lue pulled his starters. But the Clippers' second-unit rallied them, bailing out the starters. The Clippers didn't have Kawhi Leonard in that game. Leonard is expected to play here. That should make a big difference, too. The Raptors could have some holiday rust on them. They completed a tough, three-game road trip by defeating the Cavaliers, 118-107, this past Friday. The Raptors had halted the Knicks' eight-game win streak in their previous game. Toronto has been idle the past three days. Toronto has failed to cover in four of its last five home games. |
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12-27-22 | Jacksonville +8.5 v. Notre Dame | 43-59 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 17 m | Show | |
Notre Dame has failed to cover its last five games. I see the Irish being overvalued again in this matchup. The Irish rely on their 3-point shooting. They rank 23rd in the nation in 3-point percentage. But Jacksonville can frustrate Notre Dame with its defense. The Dolphins give up the 13th-fewest points in the nation at 58.9 and rank 27th in 3-point defense. Notre Dame has a far bigger game on deck than this non-conference matchup against an Atlantic Sun Conference opponent taking on No. 14 and ACC leader Miami on Friday. The Irish are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Dolphins are 11-5 ATS when meeting an above .500 foe. |
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12-26-22 | Clippers -4.5 v. Pistons | Top | 142-131 | Win | 100 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
I don't see Kwahi Leonard and Paul George allowing the Clippers to lose to the Pistons. LA was on a 5-1 SU and ATS run until its last game - a 119-114 loss to the hot 76ers on the road. The Clippers blew a 20-point lead. Now the Clippers are stepping way down in class. Detroit has the worst record in the NBA. The Pistons have lost five in a row. The Pistons have lost by six or more points in 13 of their last 14 losses. The Clippers should maintain their full intensity after blowing a 20-point lead in their last game. The Clippers are 11-4 ATS the past 15 times versus opponents with a winning percentage below .400. The Clippers rank No. 3 on defense. They give up 10 points fewer per game than the Pistons, who rank 29th defensively. |
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12-25-22 | 76ers v. Knicks UNDER 218 | 119-112 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 46 m | Show | |
A division early start time Christmas Day matchup should result in less scoring than projected here. It's tough for the players to play on Christmas Day having been with family and friends the night before. This is especially so when the game is very early in the day like this one is. The 76ers give up the second-fewest points per game and rank No. 1 in 3-point defense. New York ranks No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage. The teams met in Philadelphia on Nov. 4 and the Knicks won, 106-104. That was the fifth time in the last six meetings the Under won. The Knicks should be stressing defense at home following losses to the Raptors and Bulls. The Under has cashed in eight of the Knicks' last 11 games. The 76ers have been an Under machine when going against above .500 opponents. The Under is 14-2 during those past 16 instances. |
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12-23-22 | Bulls v. Knicks -5.5 | 118-117 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
The Knicks are 2-0 versus the Bulls during the last 10 days. I see New York beating Chicago again. The Knicks had their eight-game win and covering streak snapped, 113-106, to the Raptors on Wednesday. New York has been playing extremely well and has a far superior defense to the Bulls. Chicago has won two in a row upsetting the Heat and Hawks on the road this past Tuesday and Wednesday. The Bulls have not won three in a row all season. This marks their fourth road game in six days. They are 8-22-1 ATS when playing on one day's rest and also 1-5 ATS during their last six visits to Madison Square Garden. |
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12-22-22 | Spurs +8.5 v. Pelicans | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
The Spurs are playing well going 4-2. The Pelicans are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games. New Orleans has been playing terrible defense, surrendering an average of 120.6 points during their last six games. The Pelicans will be without their two best players, Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. So at this high of a spread, I'll take a shot on San Antonio. |
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12-21-22 | Magic v. Rockets +1.5 | 116-110 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
There are a lot of highs and lows to the long NBA season. Orlando has been playing well. Houston not. But the timing sets up here for the Rockets. The Rockets are deep into a seven-game homestand. They have shot poorly in double-digit losses to the Trail Blazers and Spurs in their last two games. The Rockets should be primed for a much better effort, while the Magic are in letdown mode after their highly-surprising six-game win streak was halted in tough fashion by the Hawks two days ago, 126-125, on two free throws with 1.3 seconds left. The Magic had upset the Celtics twice on the road before losing to the Hawks, a team they had beaten three games ago. The Magic are dealing with rotation injuries. They also lost to the Rockets at home, 134-127, early last month. Orlando hasn't fared as well against sub .500 teams from a point spread perspective going 4-11 ATS the past 15 times they've played them. |
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12-21-22 | Raptors v. Knicks -125 | 113-106 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
No need to overthink this one. I'm going to ride the Knicks at home in this price range. The Knicks are playing great going 8-0 SU and ATS in their last eight games with six of those victories occurring by double-digits. Toronto, by contrast, has lost six in a row and is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 away games. The Knicks made short work of the Warriors last night, 132-94. Nobody logged more than 32 minutes for the Knicks in that game so the team should be fresh. |
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12-21-22 | Kent State -3.5 v. New Mexico State | 73-63 | Win | 100 | 20 h 32 m | Show | |
Kent State checks a lot of boxes for me. I was high on the Golden Flashes and the MAC entering the season and I still feel that way. Kent State ranks 88th in scoring at 77.5 points a game and rates 38th in scoring defense holding opponents to 62 points a game. The Golden Flashes have an excellent all-around player in Sincere Carry, have major experience on New Mexico State and are the superior free throw shooting team. I make Kent State nearly a double-digit favorite so I'll lay this small number of points. |
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12-21-22 | Pistons +11.5 v. 76ers | 93-113 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
The 76ers can be excused for taking the Pistons lightly. Detroit has lost three in a row with the last one being in blowout fashion at home to the Jazz Tuesday night. I see the 76ers being a little too fat and happy here after sneaking past the Raptors, 104-101, in overtime two days ago. This will be the 76ers' sixth straight game against a bad-to-mediocre opponent. Detroit is 3-7 in its last 10 games. However, only one of those losses was by more than 11 points.
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12-21-22 | Murray State +7 v. Middle Tennessee | 67-83 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 1 m | Show | |
Middle Tennessee State giving up a season-high in points while being upset at home, 82-73, by Tennessee-Chattanooga in its last game raises a red flag for me. This is a short road trip for Murray State. I see the Racers keeping this close if not pulling the outright upset. Murray State is 7-3 ATS the last 10 times facing an above .500 foe. The Racers average more points per game than Middle Tennessee State and are a far better free throw shooting team than the Blue Raiders, who rank 335th in free throw percentage making only 63.8 percent of their free throws. |
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12-21-22 | St. John's v. Villanova -4.5 | 63-78 | Win | 100 | 18 h 30 m | Show | |
St. John's has had only one true road game - and the Red Storm lost that one to Iowa State, 71-60, earlier this month. I don't trust the Red Storm away from home especially against Villanova, which is coming on. The Wildcats are 4-0 since big man Cam Whitmore, their third-leading scorer, returned four games ago. The Wildcats have knocked off Oklahoma, Boston College, Penn and Saint Joseph's during this span. |
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12-20-22 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse -3.5 | 84-82 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
Both Pittsburgh and Syracuse have stepped up their games after slow starts. I just see the Orange's defense and home-court being too much for Pittsburgh to overcome. The Orange are 5-0 this month with two of the wins coming against Notre Dame and Georgetown. Syracuse ranks No. 1 in the ACC in defensive field goal percentage and blocked shots. The Orange also are averaging nearly eight steals a game. I don't see the Panthers being efficient enough with the basketball and hitting enough outside shots to loosen up the Orange inside. |
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12-20-22 | Jazz -2 v. Pistons | 126-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
It's time to find out about the Jazz. Utah is 17-16, but in danger of dropping to .500 for the first time this season after consecutive blowout losses to the the Bucks on Saturday and Cavaliers last night. I see the Jazz getting back on track here, though, dropping way, way down in class. Detroit is 8-24. That's the second-worst record in the NBA. The Pistons not only can't finish games, but they can't put together four decent quarters. All of Detroit's last 18 defeats have been by more than two points. The Jazz have covered four of the last five times when playing a below .400 percentage opponent. Utah also has a strong covering history in Detroit going 13-4 ATS the past 17 times there. |
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12-19-22 | Hornets +10.5 v. Kings | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Charlotte often is underpriced on the road. It's a reason why the Hornets are 23-11-2 (68%) during their last 36 away contests. I find this to be another good spot to back the Hornets on the road. The Hornets have lost eight in a row. Nobody wants them. The Kings are playing well. This has caused what I see to be overinflation on Sacramento in this matchup. The spot is this: The Kings open a six-game homestand. This is their first home contest in 15 days. They just concluded a six-game road trip with a pair of victories. They've been on East Coast time during their entire trip. The Kings can be forgiven if their full concentration isn't there against this opponent, who they beat, 115-108, in Charlotte earlier this season. I don't see the Hornets losing this game by double-digits. |
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12-19-22 | South Dakota v. UMKC -120 | 45-62 | Win | 100 | 17 h 22 m | Show | |
The teams open Summit League play here and I see value backing UMKC at home in a pick'em range. The Kangaroos are the better defensive team. South Dakota is a terrible shooting team and a terrible defensive field goal percentage team. The Coyotes are in bad form, too, giving up an average of 83 points per game during their last three games. They are 1-7 ATS in their last eight lined games and have failed to cover in five of their past six road games. |
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12-19-22 | Jazz v. Cavs UNDER 222 | 99-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
The Cavaliers are the best defensive team in the NBA. This should be an intense matchup given it's the first game between the two teams since the major off-season trade involving Donovan Mitchell, Lauri Markkanen and Collin Sexton. The Jazz are off an embarrassing, 123-97, loss to the Bucks, who were minus Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, two days ago. The Under is 6-1 the past seven times the Jazz have played an above .500 team. Cleveland has held nine of its last 12 foes to fewer than 103 points. Cleveland is holding opponents to an NBA-low 104.6 points a game. The Under has cashed in 13 of the Cavaliers' last 16 games. The Under also is 9-2-1 the past dozen times these teams have met. |
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12-18-22 | Belmont +5.5 v. Chattanooga | 83-79 | Win | 100 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
This should be a wild game with lots of points. Belmont is the 11th-best 3-point shooting team in the nation. Tennessee-Chattanooga ranks 333rd in 3-point defense. The Mocs are terrible in defensive transition. The tempo should be fast here, which is the way Belmont likes it. So I'm going to take this many points with the Bruins, who should be live the entire game with their 3-point accuracy. |
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12-17-22 | Jazz v. Bucks -3.5 | 97-123 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
After blowing out the Warriors at home this past Tuesday, the Bucks went into Memphis and got embarrassed by the Grizzlies, 142-101, two days ago. Now the Bucks return home highly motivated. Milwaukee goes on the road for five games following this matchup. So I'm convinced the Bucks will have their concentration and focus. The Bucks are 4-0 ATS after not covering the spread in their previous game. Utah is off a pair of satisfying home wins against the Pelicans beating them on Tuesday and in overtime on Thursday. |
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12-16-22 | Central Connecticut State v. Manhattan -3.5 | 78-67 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
This may be the only time that I lay points with Manhattan all season. But it's justified because the Jaspers are hosting Central Connecticut State. Manhattan is 3-6, but has a winning ATS mark. The Blue Demons have a losing ATS mark and are 1-10 overall. Giving home-court edge, I would rate Manhattan as double-digits better than Central Connecticut State. The Jaspers are much better statistically. The Blue Demons rank 342nd offensively and 336th in defensive field goal percentage. |
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12-15-22 | Bucks v. Grizzlies UNDER 227 | Top | 101-142 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
The Bucks are coming off a highly satisfying, 128-111, home blowout victory against the Warriors two days ago. The Under has cashed nine of the last 10 times the Bucks have covered. Look for that trend to continue here. The Bucks are giving up just 104 points per game in their last six games. Memphis has been playing strong defense, too. The Grizzlies have held their last four opponents to an average of 100.2 points. The Grizzlies catch the Bucks minus injured point guard Jrue Holiday. Memphis is expected to get back defensive-minded big man Steven Adams. He pairs with Jaren Jackson Jr. to clamp down on Giannis Antetokounmpo. |
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12-15-22 | UL - Lafayette v. McNeese State +13 | 78-70 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show | |
Too many points for Louisiana Lafayette to be laying in this neighborhood rivalry matchup. McNeese should draw plenty of fan support with tickets specially priced at $5. The Ragin Cajuns have a far superior 9-1 record. But the 3-7 Cowboys have played a tough schedule and have a winning point spread mark. During their last five games, McNeese State played Iowa State, Northern Iowa, who they upset as 15 1/2-point road 'dogs, Tennessee, Tennessee-Martin and Baylor. |
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12-14-22 | Warriors -120 v. Pacers | Top | 119-125 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Look for the defending world champion Warriors to regain their poise after getting buried by 17 points to the Bucks in Milwaukee in a technical-filled evening last night. Prior to that beatdown, the Warriors had been idle for three days. So there should not be a fatigue factor. Golden State won't lack motivation. Indiana ended Golden State's 10-game home win streak, 112-104, four games ago. The Pacers were 12 1/2-point road 'dogs. Now look at the point spread. It's so low, I can back the Warriors on the money line. The Warriors are the No. 4 scoring team in the NBA. The Pacers are well below average in all the defensive categories. They also commit the second-most fouls. If there's a fatigue factor involved it's against the Pacers. They are in action for the fourth time in six days. |
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12-13-22 | Celtics -3.5 v. Lakers | 122-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
The Lakers are improving, but they are still levels below the Celtics, who are in the argument for best team in the NBA. Boston concludes its six-game road trip here having lost two in a row getting blown out by the Warriors and Clippers last night. The Celtics should be motivated following those humiliations. They are 17-7 ATS following a loss. The Celtics are a strong road team, too, going 24-11-1 ATS in their past 36 away contests. The Lakers just finished their own six-game road trip with a victory against the Pistons this past Sunday night. They find the Celtics waiting for them in LA. It's the Lakers' first home game this month. So they might not have their full concentration being away from home for two weeks. The Celtics have covered six of the last seven in the series. |
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12-12-22 | Cavs -5.5 v. Spurs | Top | 111-112 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
I like the Cavaliers to cover against the Spurs even if they remain without Donovan Mitchell and Kevin Love. So I'm going to take an early position on them anticipating the line would climb if Mitchell were to play. Cleveland blew a 17-point lead to the Thunder, but still won by eight points this past Saturday despite not having Michell and Love. The Spurs are on a min-winning streak having beat the Rockets and upset the Heat this past Saturday on the road. But the Spurs still are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games and own the worst home mark in the NBA at 4-10. San Antonio is a below average rebounding team. The Spurs also give up the most points in the NBA. The Cavaliers should dominate the boards and inside scoring with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. The Spurs have been without their best rebounder and shot blocker, Jakob Poeltl, who has missed the past five games with a knee injury. Cleveland has covered during each of its last four visits to San Antonio. |
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12-10-22 | Portland State +1.5 v. Cal Poly | Top | 49-72 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
I don't get Cal Poly being favored here even though the Mustangs are home. Portland State has a winning record, has beaten Oregon State twice and is the 10th-highest scoring team in the country averaging 85.3 points. The Vikings have covered 10 of their last 14 road games. They are battle tested having played some tough teams, including Gonzaga, and hold a backcourt edge with Jorell Saterfield and Cameron Parker. Those two are combining for nearly 32 points a game. Cal Poly shoots much worse from the floor than Portland State and ranks 313th in scoring. The Mustangs average 19 fewer points per game than the Vikings. |
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12-10-22 | Jazz +8 v. Nuggets | Top | 110-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
In the Zig and Zag world of the NBA, this spot sets up for the Jazz. Utah knocked off the Warriors by one point at home on Wednesday, but then the Jazz were beaten by an aroused Timberwolves squad, 118-108, last night. It was emotional for Minnesota because of Rudy Gobert returning back to Utah to face his old teammates. The Jazz are 10-3-2 ATS following a double-digit home loss. Denver, on the other hand, stole a victory at Portland last night, 121-120, on Jamal Murray's 3-pointer in the final second. Denver is 8-19 ATS following a victory. It's a plus if the Jazz get back Lauri Markkanen, who missed last night's game due to illness. But back for Utah is point guard Mike Conley. |
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12-09-22 | Wizards +5.5 v. Pacers | 111-121 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
The Pacers are a below average defensive and rebounding team. This isn't an ideal spot for them either returning home following a seven-game, 13-day road trip that concluded Wednesday night. Indiana is 0-5 ATS the past five times when playing on one day's rest. The Magic and Rockets are the only teams the Pacers have been favored against by this many points. It's going to be difficult for the Pacers to have their full concentration having been gone from home since Nov. 26. The Wizards don't have injured Bradley Beal, but Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma are playing well. The Wizards are frustrated having lost four in a row since a 15-point home win against the Timberwolves. Look for Washington to keep this close if not pull the outright upset. |
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12-09-22 | Queens NC v. High Point -5.5 | 87-79 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 11 m | Show | |
I don't see High Point getting enough respect with this point spread against Queens, which is in its first season of Division I. High Point averages 86.3 points a game. The Panthers also rank in the top 35 in 3-point defense. The Panthers held their own against UNLV. They've beaten North Florida, Elon, Tennessee State, Central Michigan and Furman in impressive fashion during their last game, 85-82, as an 11 1/2-point road 'dog. Queens has played an easier schedule. The Royals' last game, for instance, was against Paine. |
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12-08-22 | Rockets v. Spurs OVER 233.5 | 109-118 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a big total, but consider who these two teams are and what the situation is. The Rockets rank 27th defensively giving up 117.2 points per game. They also rank 27th in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. Houston has surrendered at least 120 points in seven of its last eight games. Pathetic defense, right? Way until you see San Antonio's defensive numbers. They're even worse. The Spurs allow 121.3 points a game. That's last in the NBA. San Antonio also is last in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Spurs have surrendered 117 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games. Both teams should play loose and fast with nothing to lose being bottom feeders. The Spurs, who have lost 11 in a row, last played on Sunday so they definitely will have plenty of energy. Houston has been idle the past two days. The Rockets catch the Spurs without their injured center Jakob Poeltl, whose absence is a plus for the Over. This is the first meeting between the two teams. The Over cashed in each of their four games last season. |
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12-07-22 | Celtics v. Suns +2 | 125-98 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Normally I don't like to step in against the Celtics, especially when they are playing well like they are now having won seven of their last eight games. But I feel confident doing it here. Chris Paul is expected to play after missing the last 14 games with an injured heel. That could provide an added spark for Phoenix. But I'm fine with the Suns even if Paul doesn't play. Phoenix still is very good without Paul. The Suns should be up for this matchup having lost, 130-111, to the Mavericks in Dallas two days ago. Phoenix was 7-1 before that loss to Dallas. The Suns are 10-3 ATS during the last 13 meetings against the Celtics. They have covered six of their past seven times at home versus Boston. The Celtics are playing their third road game in four days, flying in from Toronto. This also is Boston's seventh game in 11 days. Phoenix is in action for the third time in five days. The Suns had two easy games, though, playing the Rockets and Spurs before losing to the Mavericks. Plus they are home. So their fatigue factor is much less than Boston's. |
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12-07-22 | Pistons v. Pelicans -10 | 98-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
I want to fade the Pistons following their 116-96 surprising road beatdown of the Heat last night. That was Detroit's biggest margin of victory all season. The Pelicans are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Their last three games have all been victories by 15 or more points against the Raptors, Spurs and Nuggets. New Orleans should be rested and ready, too, having last played on Sunday. The Pelicans won't be taking the Pistons lightly now after what Detroit did to Miami. The Pistons rank 28th defensively. New Orleans is the fourth-highest scoring team in the league. |
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12-07-22 | Pacers v. Wolves -3.5 | Top | 115-121 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
The Pacers may be excused if they are a no-show in this matchup against the Timberwolves. This marks the finale of a seven-game, 11-day road trip for Indiana. The Pacers surprised the Warriors with a 112-104 victory as a 12 1/2-point 'dog this past Monday playing without six players, including Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner and Chris Durate. Haliburton and Turner are questionable while Durate remains out with an ankle injury. Indiana is 0-4 ATS following a cover and 0-4 ATS when playing on one day's rest. The Timberwolves won their first game without injured Karl-Anthony Towns beating the Grizzlies by eight points. But then in their second game without him, this past Saturday, they fell 135-128 to the Thunder as 5 1/2-point home favorites. The Timberwolves lost their poise in the game. Rudy Gobert was ejected early and Minnesota was whistled for five technical fouls. That was Minnesota's last game. I see the Timberwolves bouncing back having had three full days to rest, recuperate and redeem themselves at home. Minnesota is 5-1 ATS when playing after three or more days of rest. Minnesota also has defeated Indiana the last three times. This includes a 115-101 road win on Nov. 23. |
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12-06-22 | Maryland v. Wisconsin UNDER 132 | 59-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
Kevin Willard has Maryland off to an 8-0 start in his first year as the Terrapins head coach. But now Maryland has to play at Wisconsin. This should be a defensive dogfight. Both defenses are strong. Wisconsin held Southern Cal to 59 points, 11 under the Trojans' season average. The Badgers also held Kansas to 63 points in regulation, 14 under the Wildcats' season average. The Terrapins' offensive numbers are padded by having played several weak teams. Maryland ranks 14th in 3-point defense. The Badgers have been making 3's at a higher than normal rate for them. |
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12-06-22 | Lakers v. Cavs -3.5 | Top | 102-116 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
Cleveland returns home after losing, 92-81, to the Knicks this past Sunday. The Cavaliers are 5-8 on the road, but 10-1 at home. Going back to last season, the Cavaliers are 11-1-1 ATS during their last 13 games at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. The Cavaliers average eight more points per game at home and shoot 49.3 percent from the field compared to hitting 46 percent of their field goals on the road. The Lakers are playing well, winners of three in a row. LA is 2-0 on its current road swing upsetting the Bucks this past Friday and defeating the Wizards on Sunday. The Lakers are 1-6 ATS the past seven times when meeting an above .500 opponent, though. The Cavaliers should be the more motivated team defending home turf plus taking on LeBron James, their former face of the franchise. The teams met in LA on Nov. 6 and the Cavaliers won, 114-100. |
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12-05-22 | Bucks -9 v. Magic | 109-102 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 30 m | Show | |
The Bucks are in the argument for best team in the NBA. The Magic have the worst record in the league at 5-19. They've lost eight in a row with their last five defeats coming by an average of 15.6 points. Milwaukee is 9-1-1 ATS during its last 11 visits to Orlando. So why are the Bucks laying less than double digits? The answer is they shouldn't be since Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday - their three best players - are rested and expected to play. They sat out during the Bucks' 105-96 road win against the Hornets this past Saturday after Milwaukee had played on Friday night. It's the Magic who are the banged-up team. Orlando has been without center Wendell Carter Jr., point guard Jalen Suggs along with Gary Harris, Mo Bamba, Jonathan Isaac and Chuma Okeke. This has weakened an already weak player rotation. The Bucks have one of the deepest benches in the league. So I don't see Milwaukee coughing up a huge lead. |
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12-04-22 | Pacers +3.5 v. Blazers | 100-116 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
The Trail Blazers return to Portland following a 116-111 road victory against the Jazz last night. They'll find an angry Pacers squad there to greet them. After nipping the Lakers on the road this past Monday, the Pacers have gotten blown out in their last two games, road defeats to the Kings on Wednesday and Jazz on Friday. Indiana has a strong recent bounce back record covering four of the last five times following a non-cover. The Pacers have been a money-maker covering 12 of their last 17 games. Portland has failed to cover in its last four home games. The Trail Blazers could get back star guard Damian Lillard. If that's the case, though, the line could go up more. Lillard figures to be rusty after missing the past seven games. Lillard's return could impact Anfernee Simons, who has been on fire since Lillard has been out, while also causing a letdown among his teammates. |
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12-02-22 | Northern Illinois v. Idaho OVER 143.5 | 47-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
This total is short considering how bad these two defenses are in what shapes up to be an up-tempo matchup. Northern Illinois is stepping way down in defensive class after playing Northwestern, Georgia Tech and Sam Houston. It's a red flag defensively for the Huskies that they surrendered 83 points to Illinois Springfield, a non-division team. Idaho has gone Over in 10 of its last 13 home games. It's easy to see why given how bad its defense is. The Vandals rank fifth-from-the-bottom in defensive efficiency. They are giving up an average of 81.5 points in their last three games playing Utah Tech, Cal Poly and Pacific. |
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12-02-22 | Raptors v. Nets UNDER 223.5 | Top | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
It's easy to think offense when handicapping the Nets because of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. But Brooklyn isn't a good shooting team. The Nets rank 19th in scoring. What the Nets are good at is defensive field goal percentage where they rank first. Brooklyn has held its last three opponents to an average of 102 points. That puny average is what the Raptors are averaging during their past four games, 102.7. The Raptors had held their opposition to 112 points or fewer in regulation in six straight games until giving up 126 to the Pelicans two days ago in an 18-point loss. Toronto coach Nick Nurse ripped his team's defensive effort following that game. So I'm expecting a much better defensive performance from the Raptors in this game. The team's have met twice this season. There were 214 combined points in the Nets' 109-105 home win against the Raptors on Oct. 21 and 210 combined points produced in the Nets' 112-98 road win against Toronto on Nov. 23. |
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12-01-22 | Mavs v. Pistons +8 | Top | 125-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Spot means a lot in the NBA. This is a good spot for the Pistons. Yes those 5-18 rebuilding Pistons, who are minus their top player, Cade Cunningham. He's out with a shin injury. The Mavericks are off perhaps their most satisfying victory of the season beating the defending world champion Warriors at home on national TV two days ago, 116-113. It was the Warriors who eliminated Dallas in the Western Conference Finals last season. After this game, the Mavericks travel to New York to play the Knicks on Saturday. It's a huge revenge spot for the Mavericks. The Knicks embarrassed the Mavericks, beating them by 30 points in Dallas this past March. So this game not only is a letdown situation for the Mavericks, but a look-ahead spot, too, for them. I don't expect Dallas to bring its ''A'' game. Expect the Pistons to go all-out in this one. Detroit has been banged up, but got back underrated Isaiah Stewart against the Knicks. Stewart put up 19 points versus New York. Stewart is the Pistons' top rebounder. Still unconvinced? OK, how about this: Despite their 5-18 record, the Pistons have a winning point spread mark. Dallas doesn't. The Mavericks are 5-14-1 (26 percent) ATS. Dallas is 1-10-1 ATS the past 12 times after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. The Mavericks also have lost and failed to cover during their last five road games. They are 1-7 away from home with that lone victory occurring in overtime against the Nets in October. |
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11-29-22 | Warriors v. Mavs +1.5 | Top | 113-116 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
The Mavericks have been pointing to this marquee nationally-televised home matchup for a long time. It was Golden State who ended Dallas' season last year beating the Mavericks in five games during the Western Conference Finals. The Mavericks committed fewer turnovers than the Warriors during that series, but were done in by cold shooting. The Warriors' 27th-ranked defense has regressed very much since then especially on the road. Golden State is 2-9 SU and ATS away from home this season with its only road victories coming against the Rockets and Timberwolves. Dallas is on a four-game losing streak. But those losses have come to good teams losing to the Nuggets and then the last three on the road to the Celtics, Raptors and Bucks. Now the Mavericks are back home where they have covered seven of the last 10 times when hosting the Warriors. |
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11-29-22 | VMI +6 v. Presbyterian | 57-72 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
VMI isn't a great team by any stretch. But the Keydets average 77.3 points and should not be an underdog to Presbyterian. Presbyterian, losers of six in a row, could be the worst shooting team in the country. The Blue Hose only average 60.6 points. They are shooting 38.1 percent from the field and 23.1 percent from 3-point range. They lack size, too, and are terrible from the free throw line at 62.7 percent. I think the oddsmaker is way off making the Blue Hose a favorite especially in this mid-size price range. |
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11-28-22 | Hornets +10.5 v. Celtics | 105-140 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
The Celtics may be in letdown mode after beating the Wizards, 130-121, on Sunday despite not having Jason Tatum, who sat out with an ankle injury. Tatum is day-to-day. Boston might not be as intense playing for the second consecutive day and in action for the fourth time in six days hosting a lowly non-division opponent. The Hornets have been idle since Friday. Charlotte has been playing well, growing as the season progresses. The Hornets are 3-3 in their last six games, 4-1-1 ATS. Two of their losses during this span occurred on the road to the Wizards by four points and at the Cavaliers in overtime. Charlotte has a good long-term road ATS track record. I'll back the Hornets getting double-digits. |
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11-26-22 | Lakers -2.5 v. Spurs | 143-138 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
I don't get this short number. These teams have met twice already within the last six days. The Lakers blasted the Spurs, 123-9, at home without LeBron James and then beat the Spurs again this time on the road last night, 105-94. James played in last night's game and committed a season-high nine turnovers. He'll be less rusty here. The Lakers started slow. But they are coming on now, going 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games. The lone defeat during this span was to the Suns. The Spurs are a strong fade right now. They are 1-12 in their last 13 games and have lost seven in a row. San Antonio ranks last in all the major defensive categories. Maybe the Spurs get right here. That could be a stretch. The Lakers have proven themselves the superior team. So I'll lay this short number. |
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11-25-22 | Lakers -3 v. Spurs | 105-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
The Lakers are playing better and have a great opportunity to win their first road game here, likely getting back LeBron James and taking on the pathetic Spurs. San Antonio is young and bad, losers of 11 of its last 12 games. The Spurs rank last in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Lakers certainly have the scorers to take advantage. The Lakers just blasted the Spurs, 123-92, at home this past Sunday. And that was without James. LA had won three in a row until falling to the Suns, 115-105, on the road three days ago. Time for the Lakers to begin a new win streak. They couldn't ask for an easier opponent. |
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11-25-22 | Hawks v. Rockets +7.5 | 122-128 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
The Rockets haven't played since Sunday. Not only will be they be rested, but the extra practice time should come in handy for such a young, developing team. So Atlanta could get ambushed here. The Hawks just ended the Kings' seven-game win streak with a 115-106 home win two days ago. The Hawks are 2-9 ATS after covering in their previous game. Atlanta is not a good shooting team especially from beyond the arch, ranking 27th in 3-point shooting. The Rockets rank 11th in 3-point defense. They will make the Hawks earn their points in what should be a back-and-forth closer game than what the oddsmaker thinks. |
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11-25-22 | Cavs v. Bucks -3.5 | Top | 102-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
The Cavaliers come into Milwaukee fat and happy after celebrating Thanksgiving having swept their four-game homestand. They'll find an angry Bucks team awaiting them. Milwaukee is 9-2 at home this season. However, one of its losses just occurred to the Bulls on Wednesday, 118-113. The Bucks buried the Cavaliers, 113-98, when the teams last met nine days ago in Milwaukee. That was the seventh time in the last nine tries the Bucks have covered against the Cavaliers at home. Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best player in the league averaging 30.5 points, 11.6 rebounds and 5.5 assists. The Bucks get back Wesley Matthews, too, to boost their rotation. |
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11-24-22 | Iowa State v. Villanova UNDER 131.5 | Top | 81-79 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
T.J. Otzenberger turned Iowa State into one of the best defensive teams in the country last season with the Cyclones giving up 63 points a game and finishing in the top-five in overall adjusted defense, according to KenPom ratings. Guess what? The Cyclones are showing definite signs of being even better defensively this season. Iowa State has held its first three opponents to an average of 45 points a game, best in the nation. The combination of Villanova's slow pace, Iowa State's great defense and this game being played in neutral site Portland, Ore., should mean another Under. The Wildcats are trying to rebuild their offense having lost key playmakers Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels. Villanova is playing at a slow, deliberate pace. The Wildcats don't have to worry too much about Iowa State heating up from 3-point range. The Cyclones rank 339th in 3-point shooting. Meeting on a neutral court is another plus for the Under. Iowa State has gone Under in its last five neutral site games. Villanova has gone Under in eight of its last 10 neutral site matchups. |
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11-23-22 | Jackson State +22.5 v. Michigan | 68-78 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Michigan barely escaped Ohio at home in its last game, winning in overtime this past Sunday as a 14 1/2-point home favorite. Now the Wolverines are laying a big number against Jackson State, who has two very good players and plays in the underrated Southwestern Athletic Conference. I find this number to be too large so I'm on the underdog Tigers. Jackson State is 0-3 with losses to Abilene Christian, Tulsa and Little Rock by an average of six points. The Tigers are just two years removed from dominating the SWAC. Now they are rebuilding under first year head coach Mo Williams, a former NBA All-Star. Williams has two excellent players to build around in Ken Evans and Trace Young, who transferred from Wyoming. Jackson State is averaging 75.3 points a game. Michigan could have fewer fans than normal for this home contest due to Thanksgiving break. The Wolverines' focus may be off, too. |
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11-23-22 | 76ers v. Hornets -4.5 | 101-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Surprised at this line? Don't be this spot sets up well for the Hornets. The 76ers are without their three best players, Joel Embiid, James Harden and Tyrese Maxey. Yet they still beat the Nets, 115-106, last night in an emotional game. Now the 76ers have to turn around and play the Hornets, who are desperate for a victory and have gotten healthier. Charlotte is rested and ready having last played on Sunday. The 76ers are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 road games and 1-10 ATS versus opponents with a below .400 winning percentage. |
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11-22-22 | UL - Lafayette v. SMU -120 | Top | 76-72 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
Kudos for Louisiana Lafayette getting off to a 4-0 start. The Ragin' Cajuns, though, have played an easy schedule and all of their games have been either home, or on a neutral court. I don't see the Ragin' Cajuns pulling a road upset against SMU. The Mustangs have won 40 of 46 games at Moody Coliseum during the past four seasons. They are 20-2 (91 percent) in home non-conference games during this stretch. SMU is getting scoring from Zhuric Phelps and rebounding from Efe Odigie, who leads the AAC in rebounding. The oddsmaker has yet to effectively price SMU. They've underestimated the Mustangs in this spot while overrating Lafayette. |
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11-21-22 | Knicks v. Thunder UNDER 230.5 | Top | 129-119 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
These teams went crazy when they met eight days ago. The Thunder won, 145-135. The Knicks hadn't allowed that many points in regulation since 2006. So you have to believe the Knicks will be much more intense defensively. They also likely will be slowing the ball down carrying a heavy fatigue factor playing their fifth road in seven days. This has taken a toll on the Knicks' scoring. New York's point production has gone down each of the last three games from 106 to 101 to 95 points. New York has allowed an average of 110.2 points in its last four games following that loss to Oklahoma City. The Knicks rank fifth in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage. The Thunder enter this matchup having not played at home in 10 days and with their rotation shaken by injuries. |
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11-21-22 | Central Michigan v. High Point -4 | 67-68 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 40 m | Show | |
Central Michigan went 7-23 last season under its first-year coach Tony Barbee. The Chippewas aren't going to be very good this year either. A lone victory against Eastern Illinois is not impressive. High Point has one of the best scorers in the nation, Jaden House. He's averaging 22.8 points. High Point is the ninth-highest scoring team in the nation. The Panthers have too much firepower for Central Michigan. |
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11-18-22 | Knicks v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
Kudos to the Knicks in opening their five-game road trip with straight-up underdog victories against the Jazz on Tuesday and Nuggets on Wednesday. But I don't see them making it three in a row against the Warriors. Golden State has won five in a row at home. The Knicks are playing their third road game in four days and are in action for the fifth time in eight days. They caught a break in drawing the Nuggets when Denver was missing Nikola Jokic. Still, it was a highly satisfying win for the Knicks, their first in Denver since 2006. The Warriors aren't as fat and happy as the Knicks. Golden State is off a highly disappointing, 130-119, road loss to the Suns this past Wednesday. Warriors coach Steve Kerr fell on his sword taking the blame for the defeat. I see the Warriors playing with great intensity back at home in support of Kerr. Golden State is hitting 40 percent of its 3-point shots at home. That would rank No. 2 in the league if it were the Warriors' season average. The Knicks are down defensively from past seasons. They rank in the middle in 3-point defense. |
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11-18-22 | Nevada -4.5 v. Texas-Arlington | 62-43 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
I find this line short as Nevada should beat Texas Arlington by double-digits. The Wolf Pack rank 19th in defensive field goal percentage. Texas Arlington lost its three best scorers from last year's squad, which lost 18 of 29 games. The Mavericks' scoring numbers are skewed because they played two non-Division I cupcakes. By most ratings, the Mavericks are worse than any team in the Mountain West Conference. So Nevada should have no problem here. |
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11-17-22 | Utah State v. San Diego +7 | 91-89 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
This is too generous of a point spread so I'm getting involved with the home underdog. Both teams are 3-0. This is Utah State's first road game of the season and biggest test. Steve Lavin has raised the talent level at San Diego bringing in several transfers from the Pac-12. One of the Toreros' victories this season is against Florida Gulf Coast, a team that upset USC by 13 points on the road. San Diego ranks 31st in the country in 3-point shooting. The Toreros also are 12th in turnover percentage. That's an impressive combination of limiting turnovers while being highly accurate from beyond the arc. |
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11-17-22 | Merrimack +6 v. Troy State | 54-73 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Troy may have a difficult time getting up for this game after upsetting Florida State on the road this past Monday as a double-digit 'dog. That victory has caused this line to be inflated. Merrimack is at Troy's level. Merrimack has a good player in Jordan Minor. Troy was picked to finish 10th in the Sun Belt Conference. This game is being played at a neutral site. Troy is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games. |
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11-16-22 | Bulls +3.5 v. Pelicans | 110-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
The Bulls have rapid revenge for a 115-111 home loss to the Pelicans last Wednesday. The scheduling dynamics also favor Chicago. Chicago last played three days ago. So the Bulls should be rested and ready. That's not the case with the Pelicans, who are in action for the eighth time in 13 days and have zero rest after beating the Grizzlies last night. Both Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum logged big minutes in that game. It's a bonus for the Bulls if Zion Williamson has to miss the game. He's questionable with a foot injury. The Bulls are 7-3-1 ATS during their last 11 road games. |
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11-16-22 | Texas Southern +31.5 v. Houston | Top | 48-83 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Yes, No. 3 ranked Houston is good, real good. But look at this spread. It's too inflated. Texas Southern, a Houston school, is going to be highly motivated not to get embarrassed by its next door neighbor. Texas Southern isn't good, but is capable of springing an upset. Just ask Arizona State. The Tigers upset them as 11-point home 'dogs this past Sunday. The Tigers have been reliable in this role covering 13 of the last 18 times on the road against an above .500 opponent. The 3-0 Cougars have yet to be tested. They rolled past three easy foes and have a much tougher challenge up next next when they go to Oregon to play the Ducks. So their focus is likely to be at 100 percent. |
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11-15-22 | Grizzlies +3.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 102-113 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
This is just the third time all season the Grizzlies are underdogs when they are expected to have Ja Morant. He missed Memphis' last game, a 102-92 road loss to the Wizards this past Saturday. Memphis is 0-3 when Morant has been out. But with him, the Grizzlies are 9-2. The Grizzlies also are 15-7 ATS the past 22 times following a loss. The matchup has sort of a Zig/Zag feel to it as the Pelicans are off a 119-106 home win against the Rockets from Saturday. New Orleans is 0-5 ATS following a victory. The Grizzlies have defeated the Pelicans three of the last four times when Morant has started. |
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11-15-22 | Bucknell v. St. Peter's -3.5 | 71-82 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
I have St. Peter's power-rated higher than this spread number. The Peacocks have been an excellent ATS team going 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 games for 78 percent. They have covered in their last six home games. Bucknell is 2-0 but has played easy competition. Bucknell is one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation. The Bison have failed to cover nine of the last 12 times on the road when facing a foe with a winning home record. |
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11-15-22 | Morehead State +19 v. West Virginia | 57-75 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
West Virginia is off a very satisfying, 81-56, victory against Pittsburgh in its Backyard Brawl matchup. I don't see the Mountaineers being as intense as Morehead State for this matchup. The Eagles have been pointing to this rematch after West Virginia eliminated them, 84-67, in a first round NCAA Tournament game last year.
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11-14-22 | CS Sacramento v. Denver UNDER 133 | 73-69 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
Denver is going to get some culture shock meeting Sacramento State after facing bad defensive teams Idaho and non-Division I Colorado College. The Hornets play at a snail's pace and specialize in defense under new coach David Patrick. The Hornets don't have much offense so they use this style. They are averaging 57.5 points in their two games. I don't think the oddsmaker is fully factoring in Sacramento's slow tempo and commitment to defense while overrating Denver's offense. |
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11-14-22 | CS Sacramento +3 v. Denver | 73-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Denver has had two easy games so far this season beating Idaho and Colorado College. The Pioneers struggled against Idaho failing to cover as 10-point home favorites. They face stronger competition here against Sacramento State. The Hornets are defensive-minded under new coach David Patrick. Their half-court ways and height should bother Denver, which has faced two easy defenses. Sacramento State is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games going back to last season. Denver has failed to cover in its last five lined home games. |
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11-14-22 | Suns +2 v. Heat | Top | 112-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
Miami has yet to get going at 6-7. The Heat are at least two levels down from the Suns. The key question is are the Heat good enough at home drawing the Suns likely without Chris Paul for a third straight game? I rather doubt it. Considering the situation - the Suns off an embarrassing loss to the Magic this past Friday - I will get involved backing underdog Phoenix. The Suns had a cold shooting night against Orlando while the Magic were hot making 52.4 percent of their shots from the floor. Phoenix is 8-3 ATS the past 11 times following a loss. They are 4-0 SU this season after losing in their previous game. Phoenix also has covered in its last four visits to Miami. Cameron Payne is one of the more underrated backup point guards in the league. The Heat have their own key injury. Tyler Herro, Miami's second-leading scorer, has missed the last three games due to a sprained ankle. Miami just got down hosting the lowly Hornets during its past two games. The last time the Heat faced a team of this high caliber was in their second game of the season when they hosted and lost to the Celtics. The Heat have failed to cover the past six times they've met an above .500 opponent. |
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11-13-22 | Lindenwood +28.5 v. Missouri | 53-82 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Missouri didn't cover against Penn in its last game this past Friday, winning 92-85 as a 12 1/2-point home favorite. I had Penn in that game with part of my handicap being the Tigers are breaking in a new roster and coach so it's going to take time for them to jell. I'm going to double down and fade the Tigers again believing this point spread is too high. Missouri is 2-0, but giving up 88 points a game. Both of its previous opponents - Penn and Southern Indiana - shot 50 percent from 3-point range. Lindenwood made 12 of 26 3-point shots in its last game. |
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11-11-22 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 232.5 | Top | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
By the numbers the oddsmaker has set a correct total here. Early marketplace activity has pushed the total even higher. Golden State is the third-highest scoring team in the league and second-worst defensive team. The Warriors just allowed an average of 121.6 points on their recently completed 0-5 road trip. Led by Donovan Mitchell and his 31.9 scoring average, the Cavaliers are a top-seven scoring team. But I see this spot being much more defensive-oriented than perceived. This is the conclusion of the Cavaliers' five-game road trip. They've lost the last two games to the Kings and Lakers allowing an average of 123.5 in those contests. Cleveland ranks seventh defensively holding opponents to 107.4 points a game. The Cavaliers are the No. 1 defensive rebounding team in the league. Cavaliers coach J.B. Bickerstaff was especially appalled by his team's lack of defense in the 127-120 Wednesday loss to Sacramento. This is what he said following that game, ''...If we want to be a good basketball team, we need to remember who we are and we need to play Cavaliers basketball. ...'' Cavaliers basketball is defense and limiting opponents to one shot. The Warriors are overdue to start cleaning up their defense. They were the third-stingiest team in the league to score against last season holding opponents to 105.4 points. This is just Golden State's third home game since Oct. 23. The Warriors gave up 110 to the Heat and 113 to the Kings during their previous two home games. Not great, but much better than they've been allowing on the road. |
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11-11-22 | Mississippi State v. Akron +6.5 | 73-54 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
I don't think Akron and the MAC are getting enough respect here. The Zips reached the NCAA Tournament last season. They are projected to be a top-three team in the MAC. Going back to last season, the Zips have covered eight of their last 10 games. They opened with an 81-80 overtime victory against South Dakota State. Mississippi State rolled past outmanned Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in its opener Monday. The Bulldogs have a new coach, Chris Jans, and are in transition. "We've got a long way to go,'' Jans said after the game.
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11-11-22 | West Virginia -140 v. Pittsburgh | 81-56 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
West Virginia beat Pittsburgh, 74-59, as a 17-point home favorite last season. It was the fifth straight time the Mountaineers have defeated the Panthers in the Backyard Brawl series. The average margin of victory during this time frame is 13.4 points. Now the opening spread was West Virginia minus only two. Home court doesn't make up a 15-point difference. The oddsmaker is expecting Pittsburgh to do much better this time. I see West Virginia as a much stronger favorite than this. The Mountaineers have upgraded their athleticism and frontcourt with the addition of 6-foot-10 Mohamed Wague.
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11-10-22 | Hornets +11 v. Heat | 112-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
This isn't going to be an easy sell with the 3-9 short-handed Hornets, losers of six in a row, and missing LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward. But hear me out. Miami is 4-7. The Heat haven't played a good game in two weeks. They've won only one game by more than seven points all season. Miami is 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS in its last six games with losses during this span to the Kings, slow-starting Warriors, Pacers and Blazers. The Heat might not have Tyler Herro, he's second on the team in points and rebounds. He's day-to-day with an ankle injury. Terry Rozier has returned to Charlotte's lineup, so at least he's back. Recent pickup Dennis Smith Jr. has been doing well. The Hornets are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 road games. Miami has failed to cover in nine of its last 10 home games. The teams meet again in Miami on Saturday. So this could be a feeling out process between two struggling teams. The Heat don't deserve to be this high of a favorite. |
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11-10-22 | Western Carolina +21.5 v. Maryland | 51-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Now that some teams have played a game, you can start to develop a feel for teams. Maryland opened with a 71-49 home win against Niagara on Monday. Western Carolina also opened its season on Monday covering as 13 1/2-point road 'dogs in a 68-55 loss to Georgia. Despite their 22-point victory, the Terrapins are not in rhythm yet with a new coach, Kevin Willard, and a roster that is stacked with transfers. This is what Willard was quoted as saying after Maryland's victory against Niagara: ''It has been a crazy seven months to put together this roster and get these guys playing. We're not close to being good yet. ...'' Western Carolina was encouraged by its showing against Georgia. The Catamounts are excited to be facing another major conference team in Maryland. They want to prove something. The Terrapins won't be taking this early non-conference matchup as serious. Willard's agenda against this overmatched opponent isn't to run up a score, but get a feel for his entire roster and figure out his rotation. |
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11-09-22 | Bucks -6.5 v. Thunder | Top | 136-132 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
I anticipated Giannis Antetokounmpo to play. He was listed as probable. However, word has come that he won't play because his knee still is too sore. So I have to lower my recommendation. The Bucks have the best record in the NBA at 9-1 SU (8-2 ATS), but are coming off their first loss, 117-98, to the Hawks on the road this past Monday. So the Bucks should be highly motivated despite playing a lottery-caliber opponent and without Giannis. Milwaukee has covered 10 of its last 14 road games going back to last season. The Thunder have lost and failed to cover in their last three games, losing every game by at least nine points. One of these defeats during this span occurred to the Bucks, 108-94, at Milwaukee this past Saturday. The Bucks led by 24 points in the second half. Milwaukee shouldn't let up this time around. The Bucks won that game without Antetokounmpo. Oklahoma City is heavily reliant on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for its scoring. He is averaging 30.8 points. No other Oklahoma City player even averages more than 12 points. The Bucks held Gilgeous-Alexander to a season-low 18 points. The Bucks have the NBA' top defensive rating at 101.9.
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11-09-22 | Knicks v. Nets -135 | 85-112 | Win | 100 | 17 h 49 m | Show | |
Having Kyrie Irving suspended has aroused the underachieving Nets. Brooklyn is 2-1 SU, 2-0-1 ATS in the three games Irving has missed during his suspension. The Nets' lone defeat during this time frame came on the road to the Mavericks by two points. The Nets made a gallant comeback in that game, falling just short. It's clear the Nets are playing with more urgency and discipline with Irving not on the court. This is proven in their defensive efforts. After surrendering an average of 120.3 points in their first seven games, the Nets have held their last four foes to an average of 96 points. The Knicks are 2-4 during their last six games with their losses occurring to the Bucks by 11, Cavaliers by 13, Hawks by 13 and Celtics by 15. Their record would be 2-5 in their last seven games, but they managed to beat the shorthanded Hornets in overtime failing to cover as a 7 1/2-point home favorite. The Knicks' other two wins during this seven-game span were against the 76ers by two points in a game in which Philadelphia didn't have Joel Embiid and versus the Timberwolves, who have a losing record. The Nets have defeated the Knicks during the past seven meetings. |
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11-09-22 | Knicks v. Nets UNDER 223.5 | 85-112 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
The makeup of the Nets has changed with Kyrie Irving suspended. Irving has missed the past three games. During this time, the Nets have given up an average of just 92 points a game. They are playing with more discipline and urgency minus Irving. Of course Irving's absence hurts the Nets' offense. Brooklyn has failed to break the 100-point barrier in three of its last four games. The Knicks have the second-best defensive field goal percentage in the league. The Knicks just held the Timberwolves to 107 points in their last game. That's six points under Minnesota's scoring average. This is more than just a division rivalry from these two neighbors. So there should be a lot of defensive intensity. |
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11-09-22 | Davidson v. Wright State +4.5 | 102-97 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
I have Wright State as a home favorite in my power ratings. So I'm happy to get involved in this matchup taking this many points. Davidson beat Guilford, 87-64, in its season opener. But that's not impressive. The Wildcats reached the NCAA Tournament last season, but aren't that good on the road. Wright State came on strong last season to also reach the NCAA Tournament by winning the Horizon League Tournament. The oddsmaker sees that the Raiders lost their two top scorers from last season, but they still have several excellent players and added several good recruits along with transfer guard Amari Davis, who averaged 17.2 points a game for Wisconsin-Green Bay two seasons ago. I envision Wright State being better than last season, something the oddsmaker doesn't see right now judging by this line.
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11-09-22 | American v. Marist -125 | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Admittedly this is anything but a marquee matchup. But I don't think it's too much to ask Marist to defeat American at home in the season-opener for both teams. Marist is a middle-of-the-road MAAC team. The Red Foxes were 14-16 last season. But they are still better than American, which went 10-22 last season and finished last in the Patriot League. |
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11-08-22 | Georgia Southern v. San Jose State -3 | 48-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Pro prospect Omari Moore is back for San Jose State. That makes the Spartans respectable. The combination of Moore and the Spartans' size advantage along with home-court should enable San Jose State to cover this number. Georgia Southern has regressed under third-year coach Brian Burg. The Eagles have won just 13 games during each of the last two seasons. They were 5-11 in the Sun Belt Conference last season. San Jose State had a dismal conference record, too, last season. But the Spartans play in the stronger Mountain West Conference. They will be better this season. |
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11-07-22 | Lehigh +19.5 v. Syracuse | 72-90 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
Jim Boeheim remains the coach, but Syracuse isn't the power of years past. The Orange won 13 games last season, same as Lehigh. Lehigh is a steady team that has won double-digit games in 19 of the last 20 seasons. The Mountain Hawks return their best player, Evan Taylor. Syracuse lost nine players from last season, including three of its top four scorers. The Orange weren't that good last season and they have some adjustments to make. This is too many points for them to lay against a respectable Patriot League team.
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11-07-22 | Dartmouth v. Fordham -6 | 74-88 | Win | 100 | 18 h 6 m | Show | |
I look at Fordham as a potential sleeper team in the Atlantic 10 now that things have settled down for the Rams. The Rams play good defense and recruited talented freshmen. I find the Rams undervalued hosting Ivy League opponent Dartmouth. The Big Green went just 4-11 on the road last season while the Rams were 10-4 at home last season. Sports Illustrated ranks Fordham 190th in the country and Dartmouth 193 spots lower than the Rams. Dartmouth was picked seventh out of the eight Ivy League teams in the preseason Ivy League poll.
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11-07-22 | Kent State +1.5 v. Northern Kentucky | 79-57 | Win | 100 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
I am very high on Kent State as a very strong mid-major and the best team in the Mid-American Conference. I don't think the Golden Flashes should be a 'dog to Northern Kentucky.
The Golden Flashes won 14 in a row down the stretch last season before falling to Akron in the MAC Tournament title game. Kent State returns 10 players from last season, including MAC Player of the Year Sincere Carry and Malique Jacobs, one of the top defensive players in the conference. |
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11-04-22 | Cavs v. Pistons +6.5 | 112-88 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Almost always disrespected, the Pistons have been a strong money-maker covering 23 of their last 34 games going back to last season for 68 percent. This spot sets up well for Detroit to cover again hosting the Cavaliers. Cleveland is off a dramatic 114-113 home overtime win against the Celtics from Wednesday. Following this game, the Cavaliers head to the West Coast for four games. So this not only is a flat sport for the Cavaliers but their concentration and focus could be off, too. The Pistons are battle-tested having just played two games against the Bucks, the lone unbeaten team in the NBA, nearly winning one of the games. |
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11-02-22 | Pelicans v. Lakers +3.5 | 117-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
How can a team with LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook be that bad at 1-5? Answer: The Lakers aren't that bad. Their early shooting has been off. LA ranks 29th in field goal percentage and last in 3-point accuracy. Now I'm not saying the Lakers are ready to join the elites, but they finally have some confidence and momentum after beating the Nuggets, 121-110, at home this past Sunday. The Lakers have had ample time to prepare and be ready to host the Pelicans. Playing the Pelicans always is a big deal for Davis. He played seven seasons for New Orleans. The Pelicans aren't expected to have Brandon Ingram, their second-best player. I don't believe the Lakers should be home underdogs here. |
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11-02-22 | Celtics -130 v. Cavs | Top | 113-114 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
The Cavaliers are a team on the rise with five straight victories. One of these wins was a 132-123 road overtime victory against the Celtics in Boston this past Friday. Boston, though, is in a higher class than Cleveland. The Celtics are in revenge mode and have underrated defender Grant Williams for this rematch. Williams missed Friday's game. The Celtics are proven road warriors going 21-8-1 (72 percent) in their last 30 road games. The superior team with high motivation should succeed in this spot. That's the Celtics. |
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11-01-22 | Warriors v. Heat UNDER 226.5 | Top | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Strange to see both of these two teams under .500 through seven games this season. Defense has been the problem with the Warriors. Golden State ranks last in the NBA in defense giving up 122 points a game. The Heat are better ranking 11th allowing 110.6, but that's still below their high defensive standards. Change is coming and I see it occurring here. The intensity should be up a notch with both riding two-game losing streaks. The Warriors are off an embarrassing, 128-114, road loss to the lowly Pistons from Sunday. Miami also is off a bad loss, 119-113, to the Kings this past Saturday. Last season the two teams ranked third and fourth, respectively, defensively each surrendering 105 points a game. Each team has their same players. Klay Thompson is off to his usual slow start. So I see things becoming more normal. The Warriors defeated the Heat, 123-110, at home last Thursday. Golden State shot 50 percent from the floor and 87 percent from the foul line in that game. I trust Miami coach Erik Spoelstra, one of the better defensive coaches, to make adjustments. The Heat are 26th in scoring at 108 points per game. Stephen Nover Free Tuesday Play Phillies plus $1.13 hosting Astros The Phillies have enough going for them in this Game 3 of the World Series to present good value as a home underdog. Philadelphia lacks Houston's postseason experience, but won't lack confidence after coming from a 5-0 deficit to beat the Astros, 6-5, in Game 1. The Phillies are home now with the series tied 1-1. The Phillies being in Philadelphia means nearly 50,000 vociferous fans in the stadium and a return to their usual outdoors elements. The Phillies play much better at home being 18 games above .500 there compared to being just one game above .500 in road contests. Right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. gets the start for Houston. The Phillies have won the last seven times they faced a righty starter. The Phillies will go with Ranger Suarez instead of Noah Syndergaard, who they were going to start in this Game 3 before it was postponed Monday. Obviously the Phillies feel better starting Suarez, who is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in the postseason. |
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10-31-22 | Grizzlies -3 v. Jazz | 105-121 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
So much for the Jazz playing the lottery game. Utah may be the biggest surprise in the NBA going 5-2. One of those victories came this past Saturday when the Jazz nipped the Grizzlies, 124-123. Memphis blew a four-point lead with less than two minutes left. The Grizzlies also were minus their superstar guard, Ja Morant, who had a non-COVID-19 illness. He's questionable for today's game. But even if Morant sits out again, I still like the superior Grizzlies in this short revenge spot. The Grizzlies are a deep team. They can beat many teams without Morant, including the Jazz. Desmond Bane is an emerging star and backup point guard Tyus Jones is underrated. The Jazz put forth a great effort and deserved to beat Memphis two days ago. Now it's the Grizzlies' turn to go all out. |
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10-29-22 | Warriors v. Hornets +10.5 | 113-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
A 113-93 road loss to the previously winless Magic on Friday certainly looks bad for the Hornets. So it's easy to understand why the defending world champion Warriors are double-digit road favorites against Charlotte. But beating the NBA is about going against the grain. The Hornets are a feisty, underrated group. Steve Clifford should have a motivated bunch here after Friday's embarrassment. It's just the Hornets' second home game of the season. Charlotte is capable of hanging in. The Hornets own blowout road victories against the Hawks and Spurs. They also nearly upset the Knicks on the road before losing in overtime. All three of those teams are above .500. The Warriors just played games against the Suns and Heat. They play again Sunday against the Pistons. Steve Kerr is experimenting with his rotation. This game is more festive with Stephen Curry returning to Charlotte than it is intense for Golden State. Here's an interesting quote from Kerr, ''We always have to have the big picture in mind and pace our guys through the regular season,'' he said. Look for the Hornets to keep this one in the single-digit range. |
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10-28-22 | Knicks v. Bucks -6 | 108-119 | Win | 100 | 20 h 39 m | Show | |
Not only are the Bucks the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA, but right now they are the best team in the league with the premier player in Giannis Antetokounmpo. The 3-0 Bucks, the league's lone unbeaten team, ranks first in scoring defense and defensive shooting percentage. Antetokounmpo entered Thursday leading the NBA in scoring at 36 points per game. The Knicks are 3-1. However, their victories were against the 1-4 Pistons, the 0-5 Magic and against the shorthanded Hornets in overtime when Charlotte was minus injured LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier and Cody Martin. Now the Knicks are stepping way up in class and they're on the road. New York has lost its last three games to the Bucks by an average of 14 points. The Bucks are 9-3 ATS in their last dozen meetings versus the Knicks. |
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10-28-22 | Knicks v. Bucks UNDER 224.5 | Top | 108-119 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 40 m | Show |
No surprise that the Knicks are playing their usual tough defense ranking in the top-five in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defensive percentage. What is surprising is the Knicks ranking No. 2 in scoring going into Thursday averaging 122.8 points. On closer inspection, though, the Knicks' early-scoring outburst is misleading. New York has played four games. The Knicks scored 130 against the Pistons and two other of their games went into overtime resulting in an additional 16 points. Now the Knicks are on the road facing the No. 1 defensive team in the league, Milwaukee. The Bucks are holding opponents to 97.3 points. Milwaukee kept the 76ers under 90 points and the Nets under 100 points. The Bucks also rank No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage.
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10-27-22 | Grizzlies -2.5 v. Kings | 125-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
The Grizzlies have a strong track record when taking on sub .500 teams covering 19 of the last 26 times in that role for 73 percent. Sacramento is 0-3 under new coach Mike Brown. The Kings went 0-3 against Memphis last season with their average loss being by 23.7 points. The Grizzlies are riding a six-game win streak against the Kings. The Grizzlies are several rungs higher than the Kings, but don't generate much respect in the marketplace. They have an emerging star in Desmond Bane to go with Ja Morant, who is No. 2 in the NBA in scoring at 35.3 points. |
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10-26-22 | Nets v. Bucks -3.5 | Top | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
The Bucks are serious championship contenders with Giannis Antetokounmpo arguably the best player in the league. The Nets are not a good team right now. They rank last in 3-point defense and 28th in defensive scoring and defensive field goal percentage. Ben Simmons has yet to fit in. Given all this plus the Bucks being rested and ready having last played on Saturday, I am confident laying this shorter-than-expected number with Milwaukee. Antetokounmpo has a strong history against the Nets with a career average of nearly 25 points per game. The 1-2 Nets haven't looked good. They lost at home by 22 points to the Pelicans, beat the Raptors by four at home and then lost by 10 to the Grizzlies on the road despite strong performances from Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, who combined to make 28 of 44 shots (64 percent) from the floor. Brooklyn is 1-6 ATS following a loss going back to last season. |
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10-24-22 | Nuggets -3.5 v. Blazers | 110-135 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
Portland is sitting fat and happy at 3-0 after coming from seven points down with under two minutes to play to defeat the Lakers, 106-104, on the road Sunday. Now the Trail Blazers return to Portland where they'll find the Nuggets waiting for them. Denver was stunned by the surprising 3-0 Jazz in its opener. Since then, the Nuggets have gotten straight upsetting the Warriors on the road and dispatching the Thunder at home this past Saturday. Damian Lillard is off to a great start, but the Nuggets have more star power than Portland with Nikola Jokic, a healthy Jamal Murray and emerging Michael Porter. Denver is the superior team and has matched up well to Portland beating the Trail Blazers in seven of the past nine meetings, including going 3-1 last season. The Nuggets have covered five of the past six in the series. |
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10-21-22 | Celtics -140 v. Heat | 111-104 | Win | 100 | 17 h 14 m | Show | |
The Celtics survived a near-miss 3-pointer by Jimmy Butler to beat the Heat in Miami during Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Now it's a new season. The Celtics remain very good. They aren't as worn down either as when they played Miami during the Eastern finals. Miami isn't so good, beginning this new season. The Heat lost to the Bulls, 116-108, at home in their season-opener this past Wednesday. Chicago won despite not having its starting backcourt with both Lonzo Ball and Zach LaVine out. The Celtics opened with an impressive, 126-117, home win against the 76ers. Led by Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, Boston shot 56.1 percent from the floor against the 76ers while committing only 11 turnovers. Miami isn't at Boston's level right now. The Celtics finished last season 20-6-1 ATS (77 percent) on the road. They have covered in five of their last six visits to Miami. |
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10-21-22 | Pistons +7.5 v. Knicks | 106-130 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
The Pistons often are undervalued. That was the case last season when they finished with the eighth-best ATS mark in the NBA. It's the case again in their game today against the Knicks. New York finished eight games below .500 last season, missing the playoffs for the eighth time in nine years. The Knicks have failed to cover in 11 of their last 14 home games, while the Pistons are a sparkling 11-1 ATS during their past dozen road games. The Knicks shouldn't be laying this many points. |
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10-19-22 | Nuggets -7.5 v. Jazz | Top | 102-123 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
The class difference between these two teams is much wider than this point spread. The Nuggets are serious championship contenders. They also are healthy, something they rarely were last season. The Jazz are serious contenders, too, - for the first overall draft pick. Gone is coach Quin Snyder. Also departed are Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert and Bojan Bogdanovic. The Jazz are in full rebuild mode. Utah didn't look good during preseason. The team has huge holes. The Nuggets want to start fast so they'll be out for a lopsided victory here. |
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10-19-22 | Cavs v. Raptors -138 | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet are nice players, but Toronto doesn't have the star power it did when it won the NBA championship in 2019 behind Kawhi Leonard. Still, the Raptors are a solid, well-coached team under Nick Nurse. I like them at home against the Cavaliers. Cleveland made a huge off-season acquisition getting Donovan Mitchell. The Cavaliers are not the bottom-feeder they once were. They are a borderline playoff team who are a work-in-progress right now. The Raptors have covered five of the last six times they've hosted the Cavaliers. |
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10-18-22 | 76ers v. Celtics -2 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 42 h 44 m | Show |
The market is down on the Celtics because of the season suspension of coach Ime Udoka and injuries to Robert Williams III and Danilo Gallinari. What's being overlooked is the Celtics still have their All-Star wings in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, a shored-up backcourt with the addition of underrated all-around player Malcolm Brogdon and upper-tier role players Grant Williams, Derrick White, Al Horford and Marcus Smart. Joe Mazzulla, Boston's new head coach, has minimal head coaching experience but will be helped and guided by Brad Stevens. The Celtics finished 28-7 last season. They outscored their opponents by 14.8 points per 100 possessions during their last 32 games. The 76ers finished last season 3-12-1 ATS on the road. Short price to lay with the superior team especially at home. |