College Football Free Picks - Winning College Football Picks Against the Spread

Stephen Nover NCAA-B Picks

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
03-11-20	Kansas State v. TCU -1.5	Top	53-49	Loss	-109	16 h 43 m	Show
TCU was 2-0 versus Kansas State during the regular season. I don't see that pattern changing in their Big 12 Conferernce Tournament game. The Horned Frogs have played better down the stretch even defeating Baylor three games ago. TCU has a chance to draw an NIT bid with a good tournament showing. Kansas State is not going anywhere with a 10-21 record, 3-15 mark in the Big 12. The Wildcats actually are a little fat and happy having halted a 10-game losing streak with a 79-63 home win against Iowa State this past Saturday on their senior day. TCU is the better and more motivated squad. The Horned Frogs also have revenge incentive. Kansas State defeated them, 70-61, in the Big 12 Tournament last year.
03-11-20	Florida Atlantic v. Old Dominion UNDER 131.5		66-56	Win	100	14 h 24 m	Show
The last time these teams met was 10 days ago. Old Dominion won, 85-80, in overtime. Both teams shot well from the floor. But that final score shouldn't disguise the fact that Florida Atlantic is a strong defensive-minded team. So are the Monarchs. They also play at a slow pace. These teams are familiar with each other having just met. That's a plus for the defenses. This is a netural site setting, too - the Ford Center in Frisco, Texas. That's another plus for the Under especially given Old Dominion's track record there, which is five games played in the last two years all of which fell below 121 points.
03-11-20	CS Sacramento v. Weber State +4		62-54	Loss	-110	9 h 54 m	Show
These are two evenly matched teams - each 8-12 - playing at a neutral site in the first round of the Big Sky Conference Tournament. So I am happy to accept this many points with Weber State. The Wildcats average nearly seven points more per game than Sacramento State. The Hornets are the better defensive team, but they enter tourney play giving up 76 and 79 points during their last two games, losses to Portland State and Montana. Weber State beat Sacramento State during the most recent meeting, 70-66, as 1-point home 'dogs on Feb. 6.
03-10-20	Illinois-Chicago +4.5 v. Northern Kentucky		62-71	Loss	-115	8 h 30 m	Show
Illinois Chicago is on a tremendous roll in the Horizon League tournament with three wins and covers, including a highly impressive 73-56 victory against top-ranked Wright State on Monday. There was nothing flukish about the Flames' win as the they built a 27-point lead versus Wright State. I'm going to ride with the Flames here in the title game. These two teams met on Feb. 16 at Northern Kentucky. It was no contest. Illinois Chicago destroyed the Norse by 30 points. Now the Flames are peaking and taking points on top of it. Count me in.
03-10-20	Pittsburgh v. Wake Forest +1.5		81-72	Loss	-110	9 h 16 m	Show
Pittsburgh has a history of playing poorly at the end of the season and this year has proven to be no exception. The Panthers are 2-10 in their last 12 games. They've lost their last seven games. They have scored 57 points or fewer in five of their past seven games, while giving up 72 or more points in four of their past five games. Wake Forest showed its ability posting late February victories against Duke and Notre Dame. Pittsburgh lost by eight points to Notre Dame and by 12 points to Duke, although both of those defeats were on the road while Wake Forest's victories versus those two opponents were at home. Still, in a pick type of betting line at a neutral site, the Demon Deacons are the team I want going for me. Wake Forest beat Pittsburgh, 69-65, on the road in the lone meeting this season. The Demon Deacons won despite falling behind 22-6 during the first half. It was Wake Forest's fourth straight victory versus Pittsburgh.
03-09-20	Coastal Carolina +5 v. Appalachian State	Top	65-70	Push	0	11 h 40 m	Show
Coastal Carolina averages nearly 10 more points per game than Appalachian State. That showed when the teams last met 10 days ago at Appalachian State. The Chanticleers won, 84-77, as 4-point road 'dogs. The Chanticleers average nearly 80 points on the road. The Mountaineers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home agmes and 1-8 ATS the past nine times when favored. I really like Coastal Carolina point guard DeVante Jones. I also like the way the Chanticleers stepped up defensively in their last game nipping Texas-Arlington, 63-62, as 5.5-point road 'dogs in their first round Sun Belt Conference Tournament game this past Saturday. The Mountaineers have short revenge, but Coast Carolina certainly isn't going to lack incentive knowing it needs to win this Sun Belt Conference Tourney to qualify for the NCAA Tournament.
03-08-20	North Dakota v. South Dakota UNDER 154.5	Top	74-71	Win	100	15 h 56 m	Show
South Dakota won both games from North Dakota during the regular season shooting better than 50 percent combined from the floor during the two games. The Coyotes beat North Dakota, 77-67, at home on Feb. 29 and on the road, 82-68, on Feb. 8. It's important to note that the combined total of those two games was 144 and 150 despite South Dakota's hot shooting. Both of those final numbers are less than what this total opened at. I don't expect either team to shoot that well for several reasons. There is going to be a rust factor since neither team has played since that Feb. 29 matchup. This game is at a neutral site in Sioux Falls being the first game of the Summit League Tournament. South Dakota really could be impacted since it relies on its 3-point shooting. North Dakota has had some misleading final scores recently due to overtime games. If you just count regulation, the Fighting Hawks have scored 74 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games.
03-07-20	Valparaiso +3.5 v. Missouri State		89-82	Win	100	6 h 40 m	Show
I'm surprised to see Missouri State favored by this large amount in what I consider to be a pick type matchup. Both teams have been playing well, but I like Valparaiso's momentum. The Crusaders are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games and have won six of their past eight games. Their adrenalin should be pumped after pulling off an upset overtime victory against Loyola on Friday. Valparaiso hosted Missouri State on Feb. 25 and easily won, 89-74.
03-07-20	Penn State -7 v. Northwestern	Top	69-80	Loss	-105	8 h 16 m	Show
Penn State needs to get well and Northwestern is the perfect remedy. The Nittany Lions are in a kill mood after losing four of their last five games, including a 79-71 loss to 17th-ranked Michigan State this past Tuesday. Before meeting the Spartans, the Nittany Lions played at Iowa, hosted Rutgers, played at Indana and hosted Illinois. Now they are dropping way down in class. Northwestern has lost 13 of its last 14 games with its one win during this span coming in overtime against Nebraska when the Cornhuskers missed a mind-boggling 22 of 30 free throws. Each of the Wildcats' last six losses have been by eight or more points. Northwestern is on pace to lose its most Big Ten games in 30 years. The Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games, too. The teams met on Feb. 15 and Penn State had no problem handling Northwestern winning, 77-61.
03-07-20	UTEP +3.5 v. Rice		77-72	Win	100	5 h 49 m	Show
UTEP is playing well winning and covering its last three games. The Miners have held their past three foes to an average of 58 points. I trust their defense more than Rice's defense. The Owls have surrendered at least 68 points in 24 of their last 27 games. The Miners own the best low-post player on the court in Bryson Williams. The teams just met on Feb. 22 at UTEP. The Miners won, 68-62, despite shooting just 39 percent from the field and Williams scoring only 10 points, which is seven below his average. I see UTEP shooting better and Williams have a stronger performance.
03-06-20	Austin Peay v. Murray State -113	Top	61-73	Win	100	11 h 25 m	Show
The teams just met on Feb. 29 and Murray State had no trouble this time putting away an opponent. The Racers buried Austin Peay, 75-61, as 4-point home favorites. So I was expecting this line to open a little higher being on a neutral court in this Ohio Valley Conference Tournament being played in Evansville, Ind. Austin Peay has failed to cover in its last three games. The Governors are 4-9 ATS the last 13 times they were an underdog. Murray State, on the other hand, enters this matchup on a three-game win streak while not allowing more than 63 points during its last five games.
03-06-20	Ohio +2 v. Miami-OH	Top	67-65	Win	100	12 h 7 m	Show
Wrong team favored. Ohio buried Miami of Ohio, 77-46, when it hosted the Redhawks on Feb. 8. I don't see anything that has changed now a month later. Miami of Ohio being home doesn't alter that. The Redhawks are 3-7 in their last 10 games, scoring 65 or fewer points in seven of those matchups. They are last in the Mid-American Conference East Division with a 5-12 record. The Bobcats have held eight of their last 10 opponents to 69 points or fewer, while averaging 71.1 points. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. Jason Preston has been hot for the Bobcats scoring at least 18 points in five of his last six games.
03-05-20	Portland v. Santa Clara -7	Top	62-76	Win	100	18 h 1 m	Show
Portland enters tournament play on one of the worst runs in the nation going 0-14 SU, 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games. The Pilots have scored 65 or fewer points in nine of their last 11 games. Santa Clara averages 75.8 points a game. Santa Clara buried Portland, 85-61, on the road in the first meeting this season on Feb. 1. Santa Clara hosted the Pilots in a rematch on Feb. 29 and just won by five, 73-68. Portland, a bad shooting team, made 10 of 24 from 3-point range and sank 80 percent of its free throws. The Pilots are a 67.5 percent shooting free throw team. Now the stakes are raised with this being a first-round West Coast Conference Tournament game at neutral site Las Vegas. I don't see Portland being able to stay within single digits this time around.
03-05-20	Weber State -4 v. Idaho		72-64	Win	100	16 h 37 m	Show
Prior to losing to Idaho State, Weber State had scored 83 and 82 points, respectively. The Wildcats average 70 points a game. Idaho averages fewer than 65 points a game. The Vandals' scoring has been down recently, too. They are averaging just 55.2 points during their last four games. The Vandals also have lost and failed to cover in their last five games. I see a class difference that is greater than this point spread.
03-05-20	Illinois State v. Drake UNDER 135		65-75	Loss	-108	13 h 31 m	Show
The last time these two teams met was on Feb. 22. Illinois State won, 57-53, as 1 1/2-point home 'dogs. Now the teams are facing each other again, but it's in the first round of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament at a neutral site in St. Louis at a venue known for having a tough shooting backdrop. Drake is averaging just 52 points in its last three games. Illinois State has held its last three foes to an average of 60 points in regulation. This is a defensive-minded conference so I have to believe this one is going to be as low-scoring as the last matchup.
03-04-20	Dayton -3.5 v. Rhode Island		84-57	Win	100	13 h 7 m	Show
Don't overthink this game. Dayton has won 18 games in a row because the Flyers are the superior team. Led by Obi Toppin, the Flyers are leading the nation in shooting percentage at 52.6 percent. Toppin is averaging nearly 20 points a game while shooting an Atlantic-10 leading 63.2 percent from the floor. Rhode Island has yielded at least 72 points in four of its last five games, losing three of those matchups. The Rams aren't going to be able to stay with Dayton. That was the case in the first meeing, which Dayton won, 81-67, on Feb. 11. It will be the case here, too.
03-04-20	Florida State v. Notre Dame +2.5	Top	73-71	Win	100	13 h 4 m	Show
I like Notre Dame as a home 'dog in revenge. Florida State nipped the Irish, 85-84, as a 9-point home favorite on Jan. 25. The Seminoles may not be completely recovered from a last-second, 70-69, road loss at Clemson this past Saturday. The Irish need a victory to boost their NCAA Tourney chances. The had won three straight until an 84-73 road loss to Wake Forest on Saturday. Notre Dame has never lost to Florida State at Purcell Pavilion. The Irish give up the fewest turnovers per game and have a huge inside advantage thanks to John Mooney, who is tied with Tim Duncan for the single-season record of 15 double-doubles in ACC competition. This has been a 'dog series, too, with the favorite just 1-5 ATS the last six times.
03-03-20	Marquette -4 v. DePaul		68-69	Loss	-109	15 h 38 m	Show
In Markus Howard I trust. The senior guard leads the nation in scoring at 27.6 points a game. Marquette desperately needs this game being on the bubble for an NCAA Tourney bid. DePaul can't beat its fellow Big East teams. The Blue Demons are 2-14 in their last 16 conference games. The Golden Eagles have defeated DePaul during the past four meetings. This includes a 76-72 win at Marquette. DePaul shot 50 percent from the floor in that loss, while Marquette managed to hit only 40 percent of its field goals yet still win by four. Look for the Golden Eagles to shoot better this time around and to win by a more comfortable margin.
03-03-20	Cleveland State v. Oakland -7	Top	59-80	Win	100	14 h 9 m	Show
Oakland is home for this first-round Horizon League Conference Tournament matchup. The Golden Grizzlies are peaking winning five of their last six. Their scoring has increased since star guard Rashad Williams returned from injury 13 games ago. Oakland has scored 68 or more points in each of its last 10 games. Cleveland State averages 64.3 points and ranks 329th in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Vikings are terrible long-rang shooters, which impacts their ability to come from behind. While Oakland is on the upswing, Cleveland State enters the tournament having lost three of its past four. The Vikings are 0-2 to the Golden Grizzlies this season losing by an average of nine points.
03-03-20	Arkansas-Little Rock +3.5 v. Georgia State		70-89	Loss	-107	14 h 47 m	Show
Georgia State is much better at home. Arkansas Little Rock already has clinched the Sun Belt Conference title. Yet this line is out of whack because Arkansas Little Rock still is a much superior team to the Panthers with a big inside edge. Little Rock has been playing with a chip on its shoulder the whole season after being picked to finish 11th in the conference. So the Trojans just aren't going to mail this one it. Georgia State has lost three in a row - all by at least eight points. That's dropped the Panthers to fifth place in the Sun Belt.
03-02-20	North Carolina A&T -1 v. South Carolina State	Top	76-65	Win	100	15 h 4 m	Show
I have found one college basketball game I like on the Monday board and it comes from the small Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference. North Carolina AT&T opened the slightest of favorites against South Carolina State. The Aggies are not a good road team, but they still are superior to South Carolina State. The Aggies rolled past the Bulldogs, 78-63, in the first meeting a month ago despite missing 16 of 19 shots from 3-point range. The Aggies are tied for first in the conference with an 11-3 mark. They are 15-14 overall and have won eight of their last 10. South Carolina State is 11-16 overall and 6-9 in conference. The Aggies hold a huge backcourt edge with Kameron Langley and Ronald Jackson. They have helped the Aggies score 71 or more points in 14 of their last 15 games. I find this a very cheap price to get the much better team.
03-01-20	Florida International +5 v. Charlotte	Top	67-52	Win	100	5 h 9 m	Show
This should be a closely contested game as these two teams are nearly even in the Conference USA standings and playing for tournament seeding. Florida International outscores Charlotte by nearly eight points a game and forces the most turnovers in Conference USA. Turning the ball over is a weakness for Charlotte. The 49ers have scored fewer than 69 points in four of their last six games and are going to have problems scoring inside facing the Panthers' ace shot blocker Osasumwen Osaghae. I also like the Panthers having revenge motivation for a blowout loss suffered to the 49ers on Jan. 25.
02-29-20	Wyoming v. Fresno State OVER 127	Top	55-63	Loss	-105	13 h 47 m	Show
Both offenses have picked up since Fresno State won the first meeting, 65-50, on Jan. 18. The Bulldogs have scored 70 or more points in six of their last eight games. They also have given up 71 points or more in seven of their past 10 games. Wyoming has produced 68 or more points in four of its past five games. The Cowboys have picked up their pace averaging six more possessions per game during their last seven matchups.
02-29-20	Oakland +3.5 v. Illinois-Chicago		68-66	Win	100	9 h 25 m	Show
I see Oakland scoring enough points to produce an outright upset. The Golden Grizzlies have produced 70 or more points in eight of their last nine games. The lone exception was scoring 68 points in their last game. Illinois-Chicago averages fewer than 69 points a game. This has been a road team series with the visitor covering four of the last five times.
02-29-20	George Washington +12.5 v. VCU		51-75	Loss	-108	9 h 21 m	Show
Considering VCU is likely to be withou guard Marcus Evans for a second straight game and has been playing horrible, I see this line being vastly inflated. The Rams have lost and failed to cover in their last five games. Evans, the Rams' third-leading scorer and top assists guy, is dealing with a knee injury. It's hard to cover a large margin against George Washington because the Colonials play at a very slow tempo. The Colonials haven't lost by more than 12 points in 12 of their last 15 games.
02-28-20	Washington State +10 v. Washington		78-74	Win	100	16 h 60 m	Show
I'm hoping point guard Isaac Bonton will be able to play for Washington State. He's questionable with a hip injury. But the Cougars still have a tremendous all-around player in CJ Elleby. I don't believe Washington is this many points better than Washington State so I'm on the Cougars regardless of Bonton's status. Washington State defeated the Huskies, 79-67, on Feb. 9 behind Elleby's 34 points. The Huskies have been one of the worst ATS teams since Christmas failing to cover in 13 of their last 16 games. The talent gap between these two teams doesn't merit this high of a point spread in my view.
02-27-20	Arizona State +4 v. UCLA	Top	72-75	Win	100	16 h 18 m	Show
Arizona State romped past UCLA, 84-66, at home as six-point favorites three weeks ago. The Bruins have gone 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS since then. But Arizona State also has been playing well winning its past seven games. So I have to get involved taking these points. The Sun Devils can hold their own inside against the Bruins and have top-notch guards in Remy Martin and Alonzo Verge Jr. They both average more than 20 points a game. Martin ranks second in the Pac-12 in scoring while also averaging four assists a game and 1.6 steals.
02-27-20	Texas-San Antonio +4 v. Florida Atlantic		71-80	Loss	-109	11 h 0 m	Show
Texas-San Antonio is the 23rd-highest scoring team in the nation. The Roadrunners average eight more points per game than Florida Atlantic. They have a big backcourt edge with Jhivvan Jackson and Keaton Wallace, who average a combined 47 points per game. The Roadrunners have scored 77 or more points in 10 of their last 13 games. I don't see Florida Atlantic producing enough points to cover let alone win the game. The Owls have not been playing well losing and failing to cover in four of their last five games.
02-27-20	Delaware +4 v. College of Charleston		71-80	Loss	-105	10 h 5 m	Show
Delaware has won eight of its last 10 games, while Collge of Charleston is at low ebb losing and failing to cover in its last four games. The Cougars are averaging just 58.5 points during these past four games. The Blue Hens, on the other hand, have produced 76 or more points in six of their last eight games.
02-26-20	New Mexico v. Air Force -2		58-60	Push	0	12 h 13 m	Show
New Mexico hasn't been the same since Carlton Bragg was booted off the team in mid-January. Bragg provided the Lobos an inside force being their best rebounder and top field goal percentage shooter. The Lobos' roster has been in flux since then. The results have showed that as New Mexico is 1-7 in its last eight games and has lost four in a row. The Lobos have yet to win on the road without Bragg going 0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS. This has been a home team series with the host covering 11 of the last 15 times. That's the way I see this matchup going, too, with Air Force winning. The Falcons are a far superior 3-point shooting team and won't lack motivation. Not only are the Falcons coming off an embarrassing 78-72 home loss to Wyoming in which they were favored by 8 1/2-points, but this is the final home game for five of their seniors.
02-26-20	Bradley -3 v. Illinois State	Top	74-71	Push	0	17 h 17 m	Show
Bradley buried Illinois State, 75-63, as 8 1/2-point favorites on Jan. 22. The Braves accomplished that despite not having their two top scorers, Elijah Childs and Darrell Brown. Both are back for the Braves. It was the fourth straight time Bradley has defeated Illinois State. Illinois State plays better at home and is the host team. However, the Braves are the superior team and the spot sets up well for them. Illinois State is off an upset home win against Drake in their Senior Day game. The Redbirds are fat and happy after that win. They also are locked into the No. 9 seed for the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, which opens next week. Bradley still has a shot at being as high as a No. 2 seed. The Braves rank 27th in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. Illinois State ranks last in the MVC in assist-to-turnover ratio and is ninth in the conference in scoring at 65.8 points. So not only is Bradley much better, but the situation is ripe, too, for the Braves. Considering this, I believe this line is way too short as I expect the Braves to win by double-digits again.
02-25-20	Ole Miss +8.5 v. Auburn		58-67	Loss	-109	14 h 56 m	Show
These teams met in late January and Auburn nipped Mississippi, 83-82, in double overtime. A takeaway from that game is that Rebels star senior guard Breein Tyree scored only six points. Tyree leads the SEC in scoring at 20.6 points. He has been hot during his last six games making 56 of 107 shots from the floor for 52.3 percent. The Rebels have scored 68 or more points in five of their last six games sparked by Tyree. I expect Tyree to play much better this time around against Auburn and for the Rebels to get the cover. Auburn is just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games. The Tigers had to rally from 17 points down in the second half to beat Tennessee, 73-66, this past Saturday covering as six-point home favorites. The Tigers managed to eke out a cover by making two free throws with eight seconds left. If Auburn didn't cover in that matchup it would have the Tigers' fifth straight non-cover.
02-24-20	Oklahoma State +15.5 v. Kansas		58-83	Loss	-110	17 h 34 m	Show
The combination of Oklahoma State playing well and Kansas in a letdown spot after knocking off top-ranked Baylor, 64-61, on Saturday puts me on the Cowboys. Oklahoma State has looked sharp especially this past Saturday when the Cowboys rolled past Oklahoma, 83-66. Better backcourt production has been instrumental for the Cowboys and can help them hang in against the Jayhawks at this large point spread. The Cowboys have scored 70 or more points in four of their last six games.
02-23-20	Wichita State +4 v. Cincinnati		64-67	Win	100	4 h 46 m	Show
Wichita State is back on track after getting embarrassed at Houston winning three in a row by an average of 17.3 points. The Shockers rank 37th defensively and have held their last three opponents - Central Florida, Tulane and South Florida - to 58 points or fewer. This is a big revenge spot for the Shockers and they now have their swagger and confidence restored. The Bearcats nipped Wichita State, 80-79, on Feb. 6 when Jarron Cumberland converted a three-point play with 3.5 seconds left. Cumberland is the Bearcats' best player, but is in a shooting slump making just 12 of 45 shots during his last four games. Cincinnati has been winning, but not covering margins. The Bearcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six games. They've played four straight overtime games so they could have tired legs. Sunday Free Play Wisconsin minus 4 1/2 hosting Rutgers Wisconsin is another one of those Big Ten teams that is much better at home. The timing works here to back the Badgers. Rutgers is at low ebb. The Scarlet Knights are 2-4 this month. They also are a bit shell shocked having just lost for the first time in 18 games at home falling to Michigan, 60-52, this past Wednesday. Rutgers shot just 34.9 percent from the floor in that loss. The Badgers have held opponents below 40 percent from the field in five of their last six games. Wisconsin is 12-1 at home this season. Rutgers has lost its past five road/neutral court games. Like the Badgers, the Scarlet Knights are a far better home team. Wisconsin has revenge motivation, too. Rutgers defeated the Badgers, 72-65, in Piscataway on Dec. 11. The Scarlet Knights took advantage of the Badgers not having Micah Potter, their leading rebounder, to outrebound Wisconsin, 40-26. Rutgers has never swept a season series for Wisconsin. I don't see the Scarlet Knights putting a halt to that streak.
02-22-20	Fresno State v. Nevada -6.5	Top	76-78	Loss	-107	14 h 25 m	Show
Nevada-Reno should keep rolling. The Wolf Pack have won four in a row. Their scoring has taken off as the Wolf Pack have produced 86 or more points in six of their last eight games. The Wolf Pack own a strong home-court edge, too, winning 19 straight Mountain West home contests. They are 11-2 at home this season. Fresno State isn't playing nearly as well, isn't as good as Nevada and is a poor road team. The Bulldogs beat Air Force at home in their last game. However, they were 1-3 in their previous four games before that with the lone victory coming in overtime against a pathetic San Jose State squad. The Bulldogs are 4-9 on the road. They don't have the firepower to hang with the Wolf Pack, who are averaging 77.5 points and rank 12th in the nation in 3-point shooting.
02-22-20	Southern Utah v. Weber State +3		71-82	Win	100	13 h 55 m	Show
Weber State beat Southern Utah, 75-65, as an 8 1/2-point road 'dog on Jan. 30. Southern Utah has lost three in a row, all on the road going 1-2 ATS. Weber State has the best player on the court in guard Jerrick Harding, who is averaging 22.5 points. The Wildcats are the better long-range shooting team and are home. They should not be underdogs.
02-22-20	UAB +3.5 v. Florida Atlantic		58-65	Loss	-118	11 h 59 m	Show
Alabama-Birmingham holds foes to fewer than 65 points a game. Florida Atlantic is going to have trouble putting up points and holding its own on the glass against the Blazers. The Owls have lost and failed to cover in their last four games. They are averaging just 60.7 points during this span. Only once in their last nine games have the Owls scored more than 69 points and that was against Marshall, which ranks 262nd defensively.
02-22-20	Georgia State v. Texas State UNDER 144		76-86	Loss	-109	9 h 57 m	Show
Georgia State has held three of its last four opponents under 70 points. The Panthers rank 32nd in the nation in defensive field goal percentage and are first in the Sun Belt Conference in that category. Texas State forces a lot of turnovers, which is a Georgia State weakness, and has been playing outstanding defense holding its last 12 opponents to fewer than 67 points. The Bobcats should approach this matchup with extra intensity as they lost, 81-69, to Georgia State in the first meeting. That was back on Dec. 21. Texas State is far better defensively now than it was back then.
02-22-20	Massachusetts -125 v. Fordham		57-49	Win	100	8 h 54 m	Show
UMass isn't a great scoring team, but till averages 12 more points per game than Fordham. The Rams are one of the worst scoring teams in the nation averaging 57.1 points. They haven't reached 60 points in their last eight games. Fordham is averaging 52.2 points in its past five games. The Rams are 1-12 in their last 13 games.
02-21-20	Green Bay v. Detroit UNDER 166.5		84-67	Win	100	11 h 54 m	Show
This is the largest total of the season for Detroit and I don't see it. If you discount an 86-point performance versus Wright State, the Titans are averaging 67.4 points in their last five games. The Titans have been playing better defense, too, giving up 77 or fewer points in five of their last seven games. Green Bay can be erratic with its scoring. Just two games ago, the Phoenix scored only 58 points on the road against Illinois-Chicago. There were 163 points scored in the first meeting with Green Bay nipping Detroit, 83-80, on Jan. 18. The teams combined to make 34 of 42 free throws for 81 percent. Both are excellent shooting free throw shooting teams, but not that good.
02-20-20	Murray State -4 v. Eastern Illinois	Top	60-63	Loss	-110	14 h 47 m	Show
Eastern Illinois had won four in a row when it played on the road against Murray State on Jan. 30. Murray State beat the Panthers for the fifth straight time, 73-70. Since that loss, Eastern Illinois has gone 1-4 SU and ATS. The Panthers are not playing well like they were at the end of last month. Murray State is 13-2 in its last 15 games. The Racers are tied with Austin Peay on top of the Ohio Valley Conference. They are clearly better than Eastern Illinois, which is 5-9 in conference and has a losing overall record. The Panthers have failed to cover in their last four home games. The superiority of Murray State is illustrated by the KenPom ratings, which have the Racers ranked 153rd in offensive efficiency and 141st in defensive efficiency compared to Eastern Illinois, which is rated 242nd in offensive efficiency and 249th in defensive efficiency.
02-19-20	California v. Washington State -5.5		66-57	Loss	-105	17 h 0 m	Show
Washington State is a mediocre Pac-12 team. But that's good enough to cover this margin at home against California, which is 0-10 on the road. The Golden Bears have lost four in a row and lack the size and talent to take advantage of Washington State inside. The Cougars are 11-3 at home, including going 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six home games. They have been up-and-down but own victories against UCLA, Arizona State, Washington, Oregon and Oregon State. I like the Cougars to cover this spread even if guard Issac Bonton has to miss a second straight game with a leg injury. He missed the Cougars' last game this past Saturday. Washington State lost 70-51 to USC in that matchup. That game, though, was at USC and Bonton's freshmen replacements will be better prepared if called upon. The Cougars still have CJ Elleby, who is averaging 18.7 points and 7.5 rebounds, to give them the best player on the court.
02-19-20	Valparaiso v. Drake -4	Top	75-77	Loss	-102	15 h 21 m	Show
Drake has a size advantage with 7-footer Liam Robinson and is a very strong 13-1 at home. Valparaiso is just 4-8 on the road. The Crusaders, however, nipped Illinois State, 65-62, on the road in their last game this past Saturday for their second straight victory. Valparaiso hasn't won three Missouri Valley Conference games in a row all season. The Crusaders are averaging 59.7 points in their last four games. Drake has scored a minium of 71 points in six of its last eight games.
02-18-20	Nevada -1.5 v. New Mexico	Top	88-74	Win	100	17 h 7 m	Show
If you toss out a 73-64 road loss to Boise State, Nevada is averaging 89.6 points during its last six games. New Mexico has surrendered 78 or more points in eight of its last 10 games and five of its past six games. The Wolfpack have a backcourt edge with Jalen Harris and Jazz Johnson. Nevada forces a lot of turnovers and New Mexico commits a lot of turnovers. New Mexico lost its low post edge when double/double machine Carlton Bragg was dismissed from the team in mid-January. The Lobos didn't have Bragg when they were slaughtered by Nevada, 96-74, in Reno on Jan. 25. The Wolfpack are ascending while the Lobos are going downhill. New Mexico is 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS in its last six games. The Wolfpack have won three in a row while covering seven of their last eight.
02-17-20	Iowa State v. Kansas -16	Top	71-91	Win	100	17 h 3 m	Show
Iowa State is real down this season. Poor play on the road and the loss of star guard Tyrese Haliburton for the season are factors the Cyclonces can't overcome. The Cyclones are 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS in true road games. In their last two road games, they lost by 29 at Oklahoma and by 15 at West Virginia. By comparison, Kansas just trounced Oklahoma by 17 points at home this past Saturday and two games ago defeated West Virginia on the road by nine points. That's a good current comparison showing the difference between Iowa State and Kansas and why I feel confident laying this many points with the Jayhawks. Kansas destroyed Iowa State, 79-53, on the road in the first meeting between the teams, too. The Jayhawks are 10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS since losing to Baylor. They trail the Bears by one game for first place in the Big 12 with six games left to play. So I'm not expecting a letup from Kansas especially after Iowa State beat Kansas in the Big 12 Conference Tournament last season. If there's a letdown it probably would come from Iowa State as the Cyclones are coming off an 81-52 home win against Texas from Saturday.
02-16-20	Utah +12.5 v. Oregon		62-80	Loss	-109	13 h 34 m	Show
Utah can bother Oregon enough with its slow, grind-down style to get the cover. The Ducks are coming off a huge 68-60 home victory against then 15th-ranked Colorado from this past Thursday to pull even with the Buffaloes in the loss column on top of the Pac-12 standings. I don't believe Oregon will have the super motivation it had against Colorado since this is a less important matchup. The Ducks can't be blamed for taking the Utes a bit lightly after Utah lost, 71-51, at Oregon State on Thursday. That was a season low in points for the Utes. The Ducks haven't been covering big spreads. Just once in their last 10 games have they won by more than nine points. Utah hung tough at home in the first meeting against the Ducks this season, losing 69-64 on Jan. 4.
02-16-20	Memphis +4 v. Connecticut	Top	61-64	Win	100	12 h 56 m	Show
I'm often attracted to the better team receiving points. That's the case here. Memphis is 17-7 and defeated Connecticut, 70-63, at home on Feb. 1. It was the Tigers' fourth straight victory against the Huskies. Despite their excellent record, Memphis has had a number of close losses. The Tigers have lost to Georgia, SMU and South Florida by a combined nine points. They just lost in overtime at Cincinnati in their last game this past Thursday. The Tigers blew a 10-point lead with six minutes left against the Bearcats. The Huskies are 13-11, but are not playing well losing eight of their last 12. The Huskies are going to have problems controlling Memphis' Precious Achiuwa inside.
02-15-20	Chicago State v. Grand Canyon UNDER 143.5		47-71	Win	100	13 h 32 m	Show
Chicago State is one of the worst offensive teams in the country ranking 338th averaging 62.4 points. Only once in its last six games has Chicago State scored more than 54 points. The Cougars have played seven straight Under games. Grand Canyon averages 70 points a game. Chicago State's defense has improved slightly giving up an average of 69.7 points the past four games. This doesn't shape up to be a close game so Grand Canyon's reserves should be seeing more playing time.
02-15-20	George Washington +7 v. George Mason		73-67	Win	100	8 h 57 m	Show
George Washington defeated George Mason, 73-67, as three-point home 'dogs during the first meeting. I see the Colonials holding their own inside, which is a key. Neither team is strong offensively so this is too many points. George Mason hasn't broken the 67-point barrier in four of its last five games. The Patriots still could be on Cloud Nine after upsetting VCU, 72-67, as 14-point road 'dogs this past Wednesday. Previous to that game, though, the Patriots had dropped four in a row. They are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
02-15-20	West Virginia v. Baylor -5	Top	59-70	Win	100	9 h 49 m	Show
I don't see Baylor's 21-game win streak ending at home to West Virginia. The Bears have too much guard depth for the Mountaineer and flexibility with the ability to win playing either slow or fast. West Virginia has scored just 49 and 59 points during its last two games shooting under 32 percent in each. The Bears have held nine of their last 13 opponents to 57 points or fewer. The Mountaineers have lost and failed to cover in each of their last three road contests losing by 10 points to Oklahoma, by eight to Texas Tech and by 16 to Kansas State.
02-15-20	Louisville -6 v. Clemson		62-77	Loss	-103	8 h 45 m	Show
Louisville buried Clemson, 80-62, as 9 1/2-point home favorites on Jan. 25. The Cardinals went on a 20-0 run at one point during the game. Now we have the rematch. There is little chance Louisville comes out flat, or lets up against Clemson. Not after the Cardinals had their 10-game win streak snapped on the road by Georgia Tech this past Wednesday. That loss opened things up for Duke and Florida State in the ACC. Clemson is a mediocre 12-12, 6-8 in the ACC. The Tigers are coming off an impressive 72-52 win at Pittsburgh this past Wednesday. Clemson had lost its three previous games, though. The Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. They've gone eight games without putting together a two-game win streak. The Tigers are not in Louisville's class and they draw the Cardinals in a fired-up, angry mood.
02-14-20	Illinois-Chicago +11 v. Wright State	Top	58-75	Loss	-107	8 h 8 m	Show
Wright State is on top of the Horizon League standings at 11-2, while Illinois-Chicago is 7-6. But that doesn't mean Wright State is strong as a favorite. In fact, the Raiders are most decidedly not going 4-11-1 ATS as favorites of five points or more. Illinois-Chicago is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games. The Flames are road tested, too, winning four of their past six away games with the two losses coming by a combined three points. This has been a 'dog series with the underdog covering four of the last five times. That has meant Illinois-Chicago. The Flames have won and covered the past three times versus Wright State, including 76-72 at home this season as six-point 'dogs.
02-14-20	Fairfield +3 v. Marist	Top	57-53	Win	100	17 h 54 m	Show
I have found an underdog spot I like between two lower tier teams from the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Fairfield and Marist are two of the lowest-scoring teams in the nation. Fairfield averages 59.7 points. Marist averages 60.7 points. Fairfield has the better defense ranking 45th in the nation in scoring defense. The Stags have gone 7-5 in their last 12 games. They have proven themselves away from home with a neutral floor victory against Texas A&M and road win against Oakland. Marist is 6-15 on the season. The Red Foxes have been favored just twice this season, both times back in November. They lost both of those games straight-up.
02-13-20	Arizona v. California +10	Top	68-52	Loss	-109	16 h 59 m	Show
Arizona is highly talented. The Wildcats also are widely inconsistent and don't play that well on the road where they have failed to cover 10 of the past 14 times. California is a bad road team, but 10-3 at Haas Pavilion. The Golden Bears have covered five in a row at home and own Pac-12 home victories against Washington, Stanford and Oregon State. Point guard Paris Austin has stepped up his play recently for the Bears, who also have been clamping down defensively holding their last six foes to an average of 62.5 points a game. The Wildcats are coming off their worst shooting game of the season, a 65-52 home loss to UCLA this past Saturday. Cal's slow play can frustrate the Wildcats.
02-12-20	Cal-Irvine -4 v. Cal-Riverside	Top	63-59	Push	0	20 h 38 m	Show
Cal Irvine is the best team in the Big West Conference. The Anteaters have covered 68 percent of the time during the past 26 instances they have been favored. I want them going for me in this short point spread range off a loss and against a mediocre UC Riverside squad, who has just one player averaging in double figures. That's Arinze Chidom and he's scores 11.1 points a game. The Anteaters had a four-game win streak snapped by UC Santa Barbara this past Saturday. The Highlanders have lost five of their last seven games. They are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when taking on an above .500 opponent. They also have failed to cover four of the past five times as a home 'dog. Cal Irvine beat the Highlanders by 16 points when the teams met earlier this season.
02-12-20	Furman v. Samford OVER 151.5		86-71	Win	100	14 h 34 m	Show
These teams met on Jan. 22 and Furman won, 101-78, despite shooting just 13 free throws. The Paladins putting up 101 points shouldn't have been that shocking. They average 78 points, have the 13th-best shooting percentage in the country and Samford is a horrendous defense team giving up more than 80 points per game. I don't see much difference in this rematch. The Paladins have scored 78 or more points in four of their last five games. The Bulldogs score at a 74-point per game clip. Their terrible defense has surrendered at least 78 points in eight of their last nine games. During this span, Samford has permitted 88 or more points six times.
02-11-20	Northern Illinois +8 v. Ball State	Top	59-63	Win	100	11 h 19 m	Show
Points really matter here as this figures to be a grind-out type of matchup as evidenced by the total. Northern Illinois has won five in a row. The Huskies have held their past five opponents to an average of 56.2 points a game. Ball State is an inconsistent shooting team and not as good from the foul line as Northern Illinois. The Cardinals have allowed 67 or more points in three of their last five games and are 6-14 ATS the past 20 times when going against foes with a winning record. The Huskies are 9-2 ATS, by contrast, when playing an above .500 opponent. They also have covered in their last five road contests. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog going 5-0-1 ATS in the past six meetings.
02-10-20	Baylor -6 v. Texas	Top	52-45	Win	100	20 h 42 m	Show
Probably some team is going to end top-ranked Baylor's win streak, which sits at 20 in a row. But I highly doubt Texas is going to be that team. The Longhorns don't have it this season. They just blew a 31-19 halftime lead at home to Texas Tech on Saturday losing, 62-57. Texas also lost a pair of starters to injuries in that game, Kai Jones and Jase Febres. Neither is expected to play today. Both are guards. Jones is Texas' second-leading scorer although none of its players average more than 13 points a game. Baylor is 7-0 in true road games. The Bears also rolled past the Longhorns, 59-44, at home on Jan. 4. Baylor whipped Texas by 15 points in that game despite being outshot from the floor and making just 5-of-15 free throws. It was the eighth time in the last nine meetings Baylor has beaten Texas.
02-09-20	Ohio State v. Wisconsin -1.5	Top	57-70	Win	100	10 h 46 m	Show
Wisconsin is very strong at home as evidenced by its 10-1 mark in Madison. The Badgers do their best at home against strong opponents. I'm expecting a focused, strong effort from the Badgers after they suffered an embarrassing, 70-52, road loss to Minnesota this past Wednesday after knocking off Michigan State at home in their previous game. The Badgers shot a season-low 28.4 percent from the floor against the Gophers. The Badgers shot just 38 percent from the field in the first meeting this season against Ohio State. Wisconsin missed 17 of 23 shots from 3-point range in that game yet still won, 61-57, on the road despite being outshot. Ohio State is coming off a 61-58 road win against Michigan this past Tuesday. I don't see the Buckeyes pulling off consecutive away victories against the Wolverines and Badgers.
02-08-20	Gonzaga -6 v. St. Mary's	Top	90-60	Win	100	18 h 41 m	Show
Gonzaga is the class of the West Coast Conference and I expect the Bulldogs to get the job done against the Gaels. Saint Mary's is just 6-13 ATS in its last 19 home games. The Gaels also have been a poor underdog going 4-12 ATS the past 16 times in that role. Gonzaga should be a lot sharper than it was when it beat Loyola Marymount this past Thursday, 85-67. The Bulldogs missed 14 of 15 shots from 3-point range in that victory. That was a fluke, though, as the Bulldogs were leading the nation in 3-point shooting previous to that. The Gaels don't have the firepower and scoring depth Gonzaga does. The Bulldogs were averaging 12 more points per game than St. Mary's, leading the nation in scoring and ranking No. 2 in field goal percentage. The Bulldogs haven't forgotten losing to Saint Mary's in the WCC tourney last season. They have owned the Gaels beating them 15 of the past 19 times.
02-08-20	North Texas v. UAB OVER 126.5		71-64	Win	100	9 h 9 m	Show
North Texas is averaging 78.8 points in its last five games. The Mean Green lead Conference USA in offensive efficiency. They are taking on an Alabama-Birmingham team that just allowed 86 points to Rice. UAB, though, can take advantage of this home scheduling spot to catch a North Texas defense that isn't in good form allowing an average of 77 points in its past two games.
02-08-20	UT-Rio Grande Valley -14.5 v. Chicago State		75-64	Loss	-109	10 h 10 m	Show
Chicago State is a joke. And I'm going to get in line to fade the Cougars as this line probably is going to keep growing. The Cougars have lost 14 in a row. They have been blown out by 14 or more points during each of their last 13 games. Their average losing margin is 22.5 points during their last four games. They have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 home games. Texas Rio Grande Valley is coming off two impressive victories. The Vaqueros have covered six of their last eight.
02-07-20	Harvard +6 v. Yale		78-77	Win	100	4 h 46 m	Show
You would have to go back 11 games to find the last time Harvard lost by more than three points. The Crimson have covered each time they were an underdog this season. Going back the last few years, they are 24-7-1 ATS the last 32 times when taking points. This has been a road series, too, with the visitor covering 13 of the last 17 times.
02-06-20	Loyola Marymount +25 v. Gonzaga		67-85	Win	100	10 h 55 m	Show
Gonzaga is coming off an extremely tough road game against San Francisco this past Saturday. The Bulldogs had to rally for an 83-79 win. The Bulldogs meet rival St. Mary's in a key road game Saturday. Before that game, though, is this total mismatch against Loyola Marymont. It's a West Coast Conference sandwich spot for Gonzaga so I'm going to take the generous amount of points with the underdog Lions, who have covered three of their last five games and nearly upset Pepperdine in their last game, losing 68-67 in overtime this past Saturday.
02-05-20	Bradley v. Drake	Top	60-73	Win	100	18 h 26 m	Show
Bradley beat Drake, 80-72, at home to begin Missouri Valley Conference play. Now Drake gets its revenge. The Bulldogs are much stronger at home - 11-1 - and the Braves are much weaker on the road. Bradley averages fewer than 64 points on the road. Drake holds road foes to 64.6 points at home, while averaging 76.2 points when playing in Des Moines.
02-01-20	Rutgers v. Michigan	Top	63-69	Win	100	10 h 0 m	Show
This matchup is part of the Big Ten's Super Saturday series at Madison Square Garden in New York. Michigan is 3-0 in neutral site games this season, while Rutgers is 1-5 in neutral-site matchups. The Wolverines have won nine in a row playing at Madison Square Garden. They also are a perfect 10-0 lifetime verus Rutgers winning the last five in the series by an average of 10.4 points. Rutgers is a much stronger team when playing at home. The Wolverines defeated Nebraska, 79-68, this past Tuesday minus suspended guard Zavier Simpson. Rutgers struggled against Nebraska two games ago, finally defeating the Cornhuskers, 75-72, as 13.5-point home favorites last Saturday. Simpson will be back in action in this game for Michigan. That's huge. Theer's a chance the Wolverines also could get back Isaiah Livers from a groin injury. That would be an added bonus, but I like Michigan to win this game with or without Livers.
01-30-20	Cal-Irvine -4.5 v. UC-Davis	Top	80-65	Win	100	20 h 7 m	Show
Cal Irvine is a class above UC Davis and due to play better after its coach, Russell Turner, took his team to task for recent performances. The Anteaters went 31-6 last year giving up 63.6 points a game. Irvine is strong again this season yielding 65.6 points while averaging 73.4. The Anteaters had their 14-game Big West Conference road streak broken in their last away game, losing to Long Beach State, 63-56, eight days ago. They followed that up with a lackluster, 74-67, home win against Cal Poly this past Saturday as 16-point favorites. Prior to those two games, the Anteaters had covered five in a row. I see Cal Irvine getting back on track with a focused road effort here. UC Davis is 2-6 ATS at home this season. The Aggies lost both matchups to Irvine last season, including, 64-48, at home last Feb. 28.
01-29-20	Valparaiso v. Bradley -6		69-80	Win	100	11 h 44 m	Show
I want Bradley going for me off a loss and being home against a bad road team in Valparaiso. The Braves are 11-1 at home this season and 10-1 ATS off a loss. They lead the Missouri Valley Conference in rebounding and defensive field goal percentage. Bradley also has covered 72 percent of the past 37 times when playing at home against an opponent with a less than .400 road winning percentage.
01-28-20	Florida State v. Virginia OVER 115	Top	56-61	Win	100	14 h 60 m	Show
The teams met just three games ago and Flordia State won, 54-50. Both teams shot terrible from long-range - a combined 11-for-37 from 3-point territory - and there were only a combined 16 free throws attempted with just 11 made. Yes these are outstanding defensive teams and this is going to be a slow-paced game. But this total is very low reflecting that and the teams are due to shoot better. Florida State has scored 78 or more points in four of its last five games. Also overtime is a stronger possibility than normal with the game lined in the pick range.
01-28-20	Florida State v. Virginia +1		56-61	Win	100	14 h 59 m	Show
Florida State is riding a 10-game win streak. But I like Virginia's defense, grit and home-court to prevail. The Seminoles have won their last three games by a combined nine points with one game going into overtime. They have failed to cover in all three games. One of these victories came 13 days ago when the Seminoles defeated the Cavaliers, 54-40, as 6.5-point home favorites. The Cavaliers missed 12 of 15 shots from 3-point range in that loss. Florida State pulled the game out by outscoring Virginia, 10-3, down the stretch. I don't see that happening at Virginia.
01-26-20	San Diego State v. UNLV +7.5		71-67	Win	100	11 h 18 m	Show
UNLV has turned around its season winning six in a row. The Rebels are strong on the offensive glass ranking sixth nationally in offensive rebound percentage. This could be a serious problem for San Diego State, whose rotation is missing Nathan Mensah and possibly Aguek Arop. The Aztecs are 20-0. But their strong defense will be tested in this tough road setting as UNLV has the most efficient offense in the Mountain West Conference.
01-25-20	CS-Northridge -1.5 v. CS-Fullerton	Top	75-82	Loss	-109	17 h 13 m	Show
Lamine Diane is firmly back in Cal State-Northridge's lineup after missing games due to off-court issues. Diane makes a huge difference. Just ask Cal Santa Barbara. Sparked by Diane's 27 points, the Matadors upset Santa Barbara as big road 'dogs, 83-75, this past Wednesday. It was the seventh time in their last nine road games, the Matadors have covered the spread. Cal State-Fullerton is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 home games, including failing to cover the past nine times as a home 'dog.
01-25-20	Bradley v. Indiana State -2.5		53-61	Win	100	8 h 3 m	Show
Indiana State is one of those great at home teams - 7-0 - bad on the road, where it is 1-6. Bradley is dealing with injuries to key players and has to deal with the Sycamores long range shooting as they lead the Missouri Valley Conference in 3-point shooting percentage.
01-24-20	Kent State v. Buffalo -3.5	Top	70-66	Loss	-107	8 h 18 m	Show
These two teams are going in opposite directions. Kent State started 13-3, but the Golden Flashes are struggling now with a three-game losing streak. I don't see Kent State getting well on the road against two-time defending Mid-American Conference champion Buffalo. The Bulls have won four in a row and won't want to be embarrassed on national TV. Buffalo can be outstanding rebounding on the offensive end and Kent State hasn't done a good job rebounding on the defensive glass.
01-23-20	Washington v. Utah UNDER 136	Top	66-67	Win	100	15 h 1 m	Show
Both Washington and Utah need to get untracked. So I'm expecting a lot of defensive intensity in this matchup. The Huskies rank in the top-40 in scoring defense and are No. 1 in the Pac-12 in defensive field goal percentage. The Huskies have one of the more difficult zone matchup defenses in the country for opponents to solve and Utah has scored much better when going against defenses that primarily play man-to-man. The Huskies held Utah to an average of 49 points in two games last season. Utah's defense hasn't looked good the last three games. But Washington's offense isn't good. The Huskies are averaging just 56 points during regulation in their last four games. Washington has slowed down its offense minus team assists leader Quade Green, who was ruled academically ineligible for the winter semester.
01-21-20	Illinois v. Purdue -5.5	Top	79-62	Loss	-110	14 h 2 m	Show
I want Purdue going for me here off a loss and in revenge mode. Illinois is playing well, winning four in a row. But the Illini are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road contests when meeting a foe with a winning home record. Purdue has one of the strongest home-courts in the nation. The Boilermakers are 8-1 at home this season and have won 15 consecutive Big Ten home matchups. Purdue is coming off a 57-50 road loss to Maryland this past Saturday. The Boilermakers are 9-1-2 ATS following a loss. The Boilermakers also have revenge for an embarrassing 63-37 road defeat to Illinois four games ago. Purdue shot a school-worst 25 percent from the floor in that loss. The Boilermakers have won the last eight times they've hosted the Illini.
01-20-20	Oklahoma +10 v. Baylor	Top	57-61	Win	100	13 h 23 m	Show
Baylor got past Iowa State and escaped Oklahoma State on Saturday. Things don't let up for the No. 2 ranked Bears, though, with this matchup. Oklahoma has its confidence again after beating TCU, 83-63, two days ago. Baylor had a much more difficult time with its Saturday victory against the Cowboys trailing by 12 in the second half. It was a terrible beat for those who backed Oklahoma State at plus 6. The Cowboys trailed by three with 14 seconds left, but ended up losing by seven when Baylor sank four free throws at the end. It was the only time all game that the Bears led by that many points. This has been a road team series with the visitor going 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times.
01-18-20	Kent State v. Western Michigan OVER 144.5		63-67	Loss	-109	7 h 28 m	Show
Only 21 teams average more points per game than Kent State as the Golden Flashes average 79.9 points a game. Western Michigan is a monster Over team when playing at home. The Broncos have gone Over 68 percent of the time during their past 99 home contests. A combination of lack of defense and a faster pace when playing at home are key factors for this huge Over statistic. I'm going to ride this Western Michigan home Over angle especially with Kent State as the road opponent.
01-18-20	Oregon -134 v. Washington		64-61	Win	100	7 h 5 m	Show
I want Oregon going for me here after the Ducks lost, 72-61, as nine-point road favorites against Washington State two days ago. The Ducks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games and should be primed for a much stronger effort. Oregon also has revenge for the Pac-12 title game last season when it lost, 68-48, to the Huskies. Washington has to make a key adjustment with starting point guard Quade Green ruled academically ineligible.
01-18-20	West Virginia v. Kansas State +6	Top	68-84	Win	100	7 h 41 m	Show
West Virginia is in a vulnerable spot coming off probably its best game of the season, an 81-49 home win against TCU this past Tuesday. The Mountaineers shot a season-high 58 percent from the floor. The Mountaineers are going to have to take desperate Kansas State's best punch. The Wildcats' Big 12 season hangs in the balance as they are 0-4. Kansas State is one of the top 45 defenses in the country and they are going to be tough at home in this spot. West Virginia has failed to cover six of the last eight times it has been a road favorite.
01-17-20	Wisconsin v. Michigan State -9	Top	55-67	Win	100	15 h 55 m	Show
Wisconsin is not the same team on the road as it is at home. The Badgers have a losing away mark. The spot isn't good either for Wisconsin. The Badgers are off a thrilling, 56-54, home win against 17th-ranked Maryland this past Tuesday, while Michigan State has had five days to think about its worst loss in three years, a 71-42 road defeat to Purude this past Sunday. The Spartans have covered 68 percent of their last 52 home games versus below .500 road opponents. They have won 11 straight against Wisconsin in East Lansing. Michigan State's best players - Cassius Winston, Xavier Tillman and Aaron Henry - are all off their worst performance. They won't lack motivation. The Badgers can't match that being away from Madison.
01-16-20	Army v. Holy Cross UNDER 143		79-67	Loss	-109	3 h 23 m	Show
Unusual circumstances, an early start time and both teams playing at a slower than perceived pace make going Under the right move for this matchup. Army is averaging fewer than 68 points per game ranking 271st in the country. Army also shoots poorly from 3-point range. The Under has cashed in four of Army's last five games.
01-15-20	Stanford v. UCLA UNDER 133	Top	74-59	Push	0	9 h 51 m	Show
Stanford leads the Pac-12 in giving up the fewest points per game at 58.3, which ranks seventh nationally. The Under is 19-6-1 in Stanford's last 26 overall games. UCLA is giving up an average of 10 more points per game than the Cardinal. However, I see the Bruins clamping down on the defensive end after their coach, Mick Cronin, ripped their lack of defense. The Bruins also are in desperation mode having dropped five of their last six.
01-14-20	Maryland v. Wisconsin -3	Top	54-56	Loss	-105	15 h 0 m	Show
Wisconsin has a very strong home-court and is a better team with big man Micah Potter, an Ohio State transfer, settling in. Potter, who became eligible six games ago, scored a career-high 24 points with 13 rebound as the Badgers defeated then 20th-ranked Penn State, 58-49, on the road this past Saturday. Now the Badgers are in Madison where they are extremely tough. Big Ten home teams are a mind-boggling 32-5 in conference games this season for 86 percent! Consequently, Maryland is a weak road club. The Terrapins have lost their three true road games and are 1-5 ATS in their past six away contests. Maryland just lost by 18 points at Iowa three days ago.
01-12-20	Michigan State -3.5 v. Purdue	Top	42-71	Loss	-119	3 h 15 m	Show
I'm going to ride Michigan State. The Spartans are playing well - eight straight wins - and match up well to Purdue. The Boilermakers have a tough frontcourt with big men Matt Haarms and Trevion Williams. But the Spartans rank No. 2 in the country in rebounding margin and have the tough perimeter defense that Purdue needs to dent in order to set up its inside game. The Boilermakers, though, have been cold from the outside especially from long range missing 27 of their last 36 shots from 3-point range. Michigan State holds a backcourt edge led by point guard Cassius Winston, who is one of the best in the country. The Boilermakers are 0-5-1 ATS the last six times they've been 'dogs.
01-11-20	Mississippi State +8 v. LSU		59-60	Win	100	15 h 50 m	Show
LSU sits tied for the lead in the SEC at 2-0 with victories against Tennessee and Arkansas. Mississippi State is 0-2 in the SEC with losses to Auburn and Alabama by an average of 16.5 points. So things should be easy for LSU, right? Not necessarily. The Tigers are going to get the desperate Bulldogs' best effort, which should be good enough to put them safely in this point spread range. The teams met once last year and LSU won by four points in overtime. A key for the Bulldogs is guard Tyson Carter, the team's second-leading scorer. Carter is a great free throw shooter, but has missed 22 of his last 27 shots from the floor in the last two games. Carter is due to shoot much better.
01-11-20	Western Michigan v. Toledo -10.5	Top	59-67	Loss	-110	15 h 16 m	Show
Toledo is superior to Western Michigan and in the ultimate stop-the-pain mode having lost five in a row. I'm expecting the Rockets to take their frustrations out on the Broncos. They have defeated Western Michigan the past four times, including whipping the Broncos by 19 points at home last March. Toledo is a much better offensive team than Western Michigan averaging nearly 10 points more per game. The Broncos are also weak defensively ranking 279th.
01-11-20	Coastal Carolina v. Texas-Arlington UNDER 146		82-77	Loss	-115	10 h 18 m	Show
The teams met twice last season. The combined amont of points scored were 128 and 119. Now look at this total. The defensive stats for Arlington are misleading due to the schedule the Mavericks have played, which has included Gonzaga, Oregon, Houston and Nevada. Costa Carolina is turnover prone and not a great foul shooting team.
01-10-20	Pennsylvania -115 v. Princeton	Top	58-63	Loss	-115	7 h 31 m	Show
I like Penn in short revenge for a 78-64 loss to Princeton six days ago. The Quakers missed 20 of 23 shots from beyond the arc in that loss. The Quakers have covered their last four road games, while Princeton is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home contests. Penn played a tough non-conference schedule knocking off Alabama and Providence. I expect the combination of the Quakers being the more battled tested team, shooting much better from 3-point territory than they did in the first meeting and being more focused will lead to a victory.
01-09-20	Coastal Carolina v. Texas State UNDER 141.5	Top	66-78	Loss	-110	9 h 19 m	Show
Texas State hasn't scored more than 70 points during its last five games. The Bobcats, though, rank 81st in scoring defense and 56th in defensive field goal percentage. Coastal Carolina has a high scoring average, but commits a lot of turnovers. This has been a low-scoring series. Not once since 2017 has a total exceeded 139 points and that's taking into account seven past meetings during this span. The teams combined to produce 126 points during each of their two games last season.
01-08-20	La Salle v. Massachusetts -3		69-77	Win	100	7 h 48 m	Show
LaSalle is 10-4. UMass is 6-8. Yet the oddsmaker opened UMass a slight faovrite. Early market activity has been on the Minutemen. What does that say? It tells me UMass is the right side. The Minutemen have covered eight of their last nine home games. This isn't a fluke. UMass plays much better at home averaging 80.5 points and shooting 48 percent from the floor. This has been a home series, too, with the host covering six of the past eight in the series.
01-07-20	South Florida v. East Carolina +4	Top	59-62	Win	100	5 h 55 m	Show
South Florida is nothing special. But the Bulls are inflated road favorites here after defeating Connecticut by 15 points at home in their last game. The Bulls have not won a road game all season. East Carolina has the best player in Jayden Gardner and plays better at home. The Pirates have won their last four home games.
01-05-20	Davidson +3.5 v. Duquesne		64-71	Loss	-105	4 h 58 m	Show
The record shows 11-2. But I find Duquesne to be one of the most overrated teams in the nation. I went against the Dukes last Sunday when they were 7-point road favorites against Marshall and was easily rewarded when Marshall won, 83-61. I'm going to fade the Dukes again this Sunday because the linesmaker still is valuing them too high again. Duquesne played an extremely soft non-conference schedule. Davidson didn't. The Wildcats have covered three of their last four, including upsetting Loyola of Chicago on the road.
01-04-20	Oklahoma State v. Texas Tech UNDER 132		50-85	Loss	-115	8 h 36 m	Show
Oklahoma State ranks 11th in defensive field goal percentage and 39th in scoring defense. Texas Tech is known for its stingy defense under coach Chris Beard, one of the best coaches in the country. But there is more than just two outstanding defenses going here that should make this go Under the total. Texas Tech has faced very few strong defensive teams.The Red Raiders have had a tough time going up against opponents who primarily play zone defense, which is the style Oklahoma State uses.
12-30-19	Green Bay +6 v. Northern Kentucky	Top	73-59	Win	100	14 h 22 m	Show
Wright State and Northern Kentucky were the preseason picks to win the Horizon League with Green Bay in the top four. Green Bay played at Wright State this past Saturday and was leading by five points with less than five minutes left before losing, 90-84, but covering as 10-point underdogs. Now the Phoenix draw Northern Kentucky on the road. The oddsmaker is taking into account not only Northern Kentucky being at home, but also beating Green Bay five consecutive times. Half of those victories, though, were by six points or less. Northern Kentucky also has a pair of key injuries. Leading scorer and rebounder for the Norse Dantez Walton is out. Jalen Tate, the Norse's top assist guy and one of the best players in the Horizon League, isn't likely to play either. So Green Bay catches a huge break to be playing the Norse now. The Phoenix play fast and have been receiving solid guard play. They are averaging more than 82 points a game, which is eight points more per game than Northern Kentucky averages.
12-29-19	Duquesne v. Marshall +7		61-83	Win	100	12 h 58 m	Show
I find Duquesne to be one of the most overrated teams in the nation. The Dukes are 10-1, but have played a very weak schedule. They were exposed by UAB, 77-68, in their last game getting upset as nine-point favorites. The oddsmaker still is overrating the Dukes here in this non-conference, neutral site matchup being played in Cleveland. Marshall has received a boost from freshman guard Andrew Taylor, who joined the team this month. The Thundering Herd have won three of their last four games, averaging 86.2 points during this span.
12-22-19	Davidson +3 v. Loyola-Chicago		59-56	Win	100	11 h 45 m	Show
Loyola is 8-4. Davidson is 5-5. But the records are misleading. Davidson has played the much tougher schedule losing to Auburn, Charlotte, Wake Forest and Marquette while also defeating Wilmington and Nevada. The Ramblers are off a satisfying home win against Vanderbilt from four days ago. Davidson last played 12 days ago. So the Wildcats should be well rested and prepared. Davidson's strength is its backcourt and limiting turnovers. Note that this is Christmas break now so Loyola's fan base is going to be down.
12-21-19	Northwestern v. DePaul -5		78-83	Push	0	6 h 43 m	Show
Northwestern is average at best. The question is how good is DePaul? The Blue Demons are much improved. DePaul is 11-1, including 7-1 at home and 7-2 ATS in lined games. The Blue Demons had a strong recruiting class and the breakout has been immediate. The Blue Demons have strong motivation in this city rivalry. Northwestern came from 15 points down to defeat the Blue Demons, 75-68, last season. DePaul has dropped the past four in this series. The time is right now for that streak to end.
12-21-19	Coastal Carolina v. South Alabama OVER 145		81-69	Win	100	6 h 47 m	Show
Coastal Carolina has a top 20 offense averaging 82.1 points. The Chanticleers play fast and shouldn't be hurt by South Alabama's defense. The Jaguars rank 267th defensively, do not force many turnovers and are weak on the defensive boards. Coastal Carolina has a worst defense than South Alabama. The Jaguars average nearly 77 points a game. They should match the Chanticleers in keeping this an up-tempo game. The Over is 5-1-1 in South Alabama's last seven home games, while the Over has cashed in five of Coastal Carolina's last six road contests.
12-17-19	Seattle University +16.5 v. Washington		59-81	Loss	-110	20 h 29 m	Show
Seattle is 6-5 and plays in the Westen Conference. Washington is ranked 22nd in the nation and plays in the far more prestigious Pac-12 Conference. So this high point spread is understandable on the surface. But there is more than meets the eye here. Seattle is playing its best basketball winning four in a row. The Redhawks are senior-laden, better than their record, have more to prove in this crosstowon rivalry matchup and have a big time player in Terrell Brown, who leads the Western Conference in scoring at 20.9 points. The Huskies are not a huge scoring team averaging 73.2 points a game. That ranks eighth in the Pac-12. Turnovers have plagued Washington. The Huskies have lost the turnover battle in seven of their nine games. Their turnover average ranks 267th out of 350 Division I teams. Seattle has played Washington tough each of the past two seasons losing 70-62 last year and 89-84 in 2017. The Redhawks should hang in again this season.

More Content