College Football Free Picks - Winning College Football Picks Against the Spread

Stephen Nover NCAA-B Picks

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
02-16-20	Utah +12.5 v. Oregon		62-80	Loss	-109	13 h 34 m	Show
Utah can bother Oregon enough with its slow, grind-down style to get the cover. The Ducks are coming off a huge 68-60 home victory against then 15th-ranked Colorado from this past Thursday to pull even with the Buffaloes in the loss column on top of the Pac-12 standings. I don't believe Oregon will have the super motivation it had against Colorado since this is a less important matchup. The Ducks can't be blamed for taking the Utes a bit lightly after Utah lost, 71-51, at Oregon State on Thursday. That was a season low in points for the Utes. The Ducks haven't been covering big spreads. Just once in their last 10 games have they won by more than nine points. Utah hung tough at home in the first meeting against the Ducks this season, losing 69-64 on Jan. 4.
02-16-20	Memphis +4 v. Connecticut	Top	61-64	Win	100	12 h 56 m	Show
I'm often attracted to the better team receiving points. That's the case here. Memphis is 17-7 and defeated Connecticut, 70-63, at home on Feb. 1. It was the Tigers' fourth straight victory against the Huskies. Despite their excellent record, Memphis has had a number of close losses. The Tigers have lost to Georgia, SMU and South Florida by a combined nine points. They just lost in overtime at Cincinnati in their last game this past Thursday. The Tigers blew a 10-point lead with six minutes left against the Bearcats. The Huskies are 13-11, but are not playing well losing eight of their last 12. The Huskies are going to have problems controlling Memphis' Precious Achiuwa inside.
02-15-20	Chicago State v. Grand Canyon UNDER 143.5		47-71	Win	100	13 h 32 m	Show
Chicago State is one of the worst offensive teams in the country ranking 338th averaging 62.4 points. Only once in its last six games has Chicago State scored more than 54 points. The Cougars have played seven straight Under games. Grand Canyon averages 70 points a game. Chicago State's defense has improved slightly giving up an average of 69.7 points the past four games. This doesn't shape up to be a close game so Grand Canyon's reserves should be seeing more playing time.
02-15-20	George Washington +7 v. George Mason		73-67	Win	100	8 h 57 m	Show
George Washington defeated George Mason, 73-67, as three-point home 'dogs during the first meeting. I see the Colonials holding their own inside, which is a key. Neither team is strong offensively so this is too many points. George Mason hasn't broken the 67-point barrier in four of its last five games. The Patriots still could be on Cloud Nine after upsetting VCU, 72-67, as 14-point road 'dogs this past Wednesday. Previous to that game, though, the Patriots had dropped four in a row. They are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
02-15-20	West Virginia v. Baylor -5	Top	59-70	Win	100	9 h 49 m	Show
I don't see Baylor's 21-game win streak ending at home to West Virginia. The Bears have too much guard depth for the Mountaineer and flexibility with the ability to win playing either slow or fast. West Virginia has scored just 49 and 59 points during its last two games shooting under 32 percent in each. The Bears have held nine of their last 13 opponents to 57 points or fewer. The Mountaineers have lost and failed to cover in each of their last three road contests losing by 10 points to Oklahoma, by eight to Texas Tech and by 16 to Kansas State.
02-15-20	Louisville -6 v. Clemson		62-77	Loss	-103	8 h 45 m	Show
Louisville buried Clemson, 80-62, as 9 1/2-point home favorites on Jan. 25. The Cardinals went on a 20-0 run at one point during the game. Now we have the rematch. There is little chance Louisville comes out flat, or lets up against Clemson. Not after the Cardinals had their 10-game win streak snapped on the road by Georgia Tech this past Wednesday. That loss opened things up for Duke and Florida State in the ACC. Clemson is a mediocre 12-12, 6-8 in the ACC. The Tigers are coming off an impressive 72-52 win at Pittsburgh this past Wednesday. Clemson had lost its three previous games, though. The Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. They've gone eight games without putting together a two-game win streak. The Tigers are not in Louisville's class and they draw the Cardinals in a fired-up, angry mood.
02-14-20	Illinois-Chicago +11 v. Wright State	Top	58-75	Loss	-107	8 h 8 m	Show
Wright State is on top of the Horizon League standings at 11-2, while Illinois-Chicago is 7-6. But that doesn't mean Wright State is strong as a favorite. In fact, the Raiders are most decidedly not going 4-11-1 ATS as favorites of five points or more. Illinois-Chicago is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games. The Flames are road tested, too, winning four of their past six away games with the two losses coming by a combined three points. This has been a 'dog series with the underdog covering four of the last five times. That has meant Illinois-Chicago. The Flames have won and covered the past three times versus Wright State, including 76-72 at home this season as six-point 'dogs.
02-14-20	Fairfield +3 v. Marist	Top	57-53	Win	100	17 h 54 m	Show
I have found an underdog spot I like between two lower tier teams from the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Fairfield and Marist are two of the lowest-scoring teams in the nation. Fairfield averages 59.7 points. Marist averages 60.7 points. Fairfield has the better defense ranking 45th in the nation in scoring defense. The Stags have gone 7-5 in their last 12 games. They have proven themselves away from home with a neutral floor victory against Texas A&M and road win against Oakland. Marist is 6-15 on the season. The Red Foxes have been favored just twice this season, both times back in November. They lost both of those games straight-up.
02-13-20	Arizona v. California +10	Top	68-52	Loss	-109	16 h 59 m	Show
Arizona is highly talented. The Wildcats also are widely inconsistent and don't play that well on the road where they have failed to cover 10 of the past 14 times. California is a bad road team, but 10-3 at Haas Pavilion. The Golden Bears have covered five in a row at home and own Pac-12 home victories against Washington, Stanford and Oregon State. Point guard Paris Austin has stepped up his play recently for the Bears, who also have been clamping down defensively holding their last six foes to an average of 62.5 points a game. The Wildcats are coming off their worst shooting game of the season, a 65-52 home loss to UCLA this past Saturday. Cal's slow play can frustrate the Wildcats.
02-12-20	Cal-Irvine -4 v. Cal-Riverside	Top	63-59	Push	0	20 h 38 m	Show
Cal Irvine is the best team in the Big West Conference. The Anteaters have covered 68 percent of the time during the past 26 instances they have been favored. I want them going for me in this short point spread range off a loss and against a mediocre UC Riverside squad, who has just one player averaging in double figures. That's Arinze Chidom and he's scores 11.1 points a game. The Anteaters had a four-game win streak snapped by UC Santa Barbara this past Saturday. The Highlanders have lost five of their last seven games. They are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when taking on an above .500 opponent. They also have failed to cover four of the past five times as a home 'dog. Cal Irvine beat the Highlanders by 16 points when the teams met earlier this season.
02-12-20	Furman v. Samford OVER 151.5		86-71	Win	100	14 h 34 m	Show
These teams met on Jan. 22 and Furman won, 101-78, despite shooting just 13 free throws. The Paladins putting up 101 points shouldn't have been that shocking. They average 78 points, have the 13th-best shooting percentage in the country and Samford is a horrendous defense team giving up more than 80 points per game. I don't see much difference in this rematch. The Paladins have scored 78 or more points in four of their last five games. The Bulldogs score at a 74-point per game clip. Their terrible defense has surrendered at least 78 points in eight of their last nine games. During this span, Samford has permitted 88 or more points six times.
02-11-20	Northern Illinois +8 v. Ball State	Top	59-63	Win	100	11 h 19 m	Show
Points really matter here as this figures to be a grind-out type of matchup as evidenced by the total. Northern Illinois has won five in a row. The Huskies have held their past five opponents to an average of 56.2 points a game. Ball State is an inconsistent shooting team and not as good from the foul line as Northern Illinois. The Cardinals have allowed 67 or more points in three of their last five games and are 6-14 ATS the past 20 times when going against foes with a winning record. The Huskies are 9-2 ATS, by contrast, when playing an above .500 opponent. They also have covered in their last five road contests. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog going 5-0-1 ATS in the past six meetings.
02-10-20	Baylor -6 v. Texas	Top	52-45	Win	100	20 h 42 m	Show
Probably some team is going to end top-ranked Baylor's win streak, which sits at 20 in a row. But I highly doubt Texas is going to be that team. The Longhorns don't have it this season. They just blew a 31-19 halftime lead at home to Texas Tech on Saturday losing, 62-57. Texas also lost a pair of starters to injuries in that game, Kai Jones and Jase Febres. Neither is expected to play today. Both are guards. Jones is Texas' second-leading scorer although none of its players average more than 13 points a game. Baylor is 7-0 in true road games. The Bears also rolled past the Longhorns, 59-44, at home on Jan. 4. Baylor whipped Texas by 15 points in that game despite being outshot from the floor and making just 5-of-15 free throws. It was the eighth time in the last nine meetings Baylor has beaten Texas.
02-09-20	Ohio State v. Wisconsin -1.5	Top	57-70	Win	100	10 h 46 m	Show
Wisconsin is very strong at home as evidenced by its 10-1 mark in Madison. The Badgers do their best at home against strong opponents. I'm expecting a focused, strong effort from the Badgers after they suffered an embarrassing, 70-52, road loss to Minnesota this past Wednesday after knocking off Michigan State at home in their previous game. The Badgers shot a season-low 28.4 percent from the floor against the Gophers. The Badgers shot just 38 percent from the field in the first meeting this season against Ohio State. Wisconsin missed 17 of 23 shots from 3-point range in that game yet still won, 61-57, on the road despite being outshot. Ohio State is coming off a 61-58 road win against Michigan this past Tuesday. I don't see the Buckeyes pulling off consecutive away victories against the Wolverines and Badgers.
02-08-20	Gonzaga -6 v. St. Mary's	Top	90-60	Win	100	18 h 41 m	Show
Gonzaga is the class of the West Coast Conference and I expect the Bulldogs to get the job done against the Gaels. Saint Mary's is just 6-13 ATS in its last 19 home games. The Gaels also have been a poor underdog going 4-12 ATS the past 16 times in that role. Gonzaga should be a lot sharper than it was when it beat Loyola Marymount this past Thursday, 85-67. The Bulldogs missed 14 of 15 shots from 3-point range in that victory. That was a fluke, though, as the Bulldogs were leading the nation in 3-point shooting previous to that. The Gaels don't have the firepower and scoring depth Gonzaga does. The Bulldogs were averaging 12 more points per game than St. Mary's, leading the nation in scoring and ranking No. 2 in field goal percentage. The Bulldogs haven't forgotten losing to Saint Mary's in the WCC tourney last season. They have owned the Gaels beating them 15 of the past 19 times.
02-08-20	North Texas v. UAB OVER 126.5		71-64	Win	100	9 h 9 m	Show
North Texas is averaging 78.8 points in its last five games. The Mean Green lead Conference USA in offensive efficiency. They are taking on an Alabama-Birmingham team that just allowed 86 points to Rice. UAB, though, can take advantage of this home scheduling spot to catch a North Texas defense that isn't in good form allowing an average of 77 points in its past two games.
02-08-20	UT-Rio Grande Valley -14.5 v. Chicago State		75-64	Loss	-109	10 h 10 m	Show
Chicago State is a joke. And I'm going to get in line to fade the Cougars as this line probably is going to keep growing. The Cougars have lost 14 in a row. They have been blown out by 14 or more points during each of their last 13 games. Their average losing margin is 22.5 points during their last four games. They have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 home games. Texas Rio Grande Valley is coming off two impressive victories. The Vaqueros have covered six of their last eight.
02-07-20	Harvard +6 v. Yale		78-77	Win	100	4 h 46 m	Show
You would have to go back 11 games to find the last time Harvard lost by more than three points. The Crimson have covered each time they were an underdog this season. Going back the last few years, they are 24-7-1 ATS the last 32 times when taking points. This has been a road series, too, with the visitor covering 13 of the last 17 times.
02-06-20	Loyola Marymount +25 v. Gonzaga		67-85	Win	100	10 h 55 m	Show
Gonzaga is coming off an extremely tough road game against San Francisco this past Saturday. The Bulldogs had to rally for an 83-79 win. The Bulldogs meet rival St. Mary's in a key road game Saturday. Before that game, though, is this total mismatch against Loyola Marymont. It's a West Coast Conference sandwich spot for Gonzaga so I'm going to take the generous amount of points with the underdog Lions, who have covered three of their last five games and nearly upset Pepperdine in their last game, losing 68-67 in overtime this past Saturday.
02-05-20	Bradley v. Drake	Top	60-73	Win	100	18 h 26 m	Show
Bradley beat Drake, 80-72, at home to begin Missouri Valley Conference play. Now Drake gets its revenge. The Bulldogs are much stronger at home - 11-1 - and the Braves are much weaker on the road. Bradley averages fewer than 64 points on the road. Drake holds road foes to 64.6 points at home, while averaging 76.2 points when playing in Des Moines.
02-01-20	Rutgers v. Michigan	Top	63-69	Win	100	10 h 0 m	Show
This matchup is part of the Big Ten's Super Saturday series at Madison Square Garden in New York. Michigan is 3-0 in neutral site games this season, while Rutgers is 1-5 in neutral-site matchups. The Wolverines have won nine in a row playing at Madison Square Garden. They also are a perfect 10-0 lifetime verus Rutgers winning the last five in the series by an average of 10.4 points. Rutgers is a much stronger team when playing at home. The Wolverines defeated Nebraska, 79-68, this past Tuesday minus suspended guard Zavier Simpson. Rutgers struggled against Nebraska two games ago, finally defeating the Cornhuskers, 75-72, as 13.5-point home favorites last Saturday. Simpson will be back in action in this game for Michigan. That's huge. Theer's a chance the Wolverines also could get back Isaiah Livers from a groin injury. That would be an added bonus, but I like Michigan to win this game with or without Livers.
01-30-20	Cal-Irvine -4.5 v. UC-Davis	Top	80-65	Win	100	20 h 7 m	Show
Cal Irvine is a class above UC Davis and due to play better after its coach, Russell Turner, took his team to task for recent performances. The Anteaters went 31-6 last year giving up 63.6 points a game. Irvine is strong again this season yielding 65.6 points while averaging 73.4. The Anteaters had their 14-game Big West Conference road streak broken in their last away game, losing to Long Beach State, 63-56, eight days ago. They followed that up with a lackluster, 74-67, home win against Cal Poly this past Saturday as 16-point favorites. Prior to those two games, the Anteaters had covered five in a row. I see Cal Irvine getting back on track with a focused road effort here. UC Davis is 2-6 ATS at home this season. The Aggies lost both matchups to Irvine last season, including, 64-48, at home last Feb. 28.
01-29-20	Valparaiso v. Bradley -6		69-80	Win	100	11 h 44 m	Show
I want Bradley going for me off a loss and being home against a bad road team in Valparaiso. The Braves are 11-1 at home this season and 10-1 ATS off a loss. They lead the Missouri Valley Conference in rebounding and defensive field goal percentage. Bradley also has covered 72 percent of the past 37 times when playing at home against an opponent with a less than .400 road winning percentage.
01-28-20	Florida State v. Virginia OVER 115	Top	56-61	Win	100	14 h 60 m	Show
The teams met just three games ago and Flordia State won, 54-50. Both teams shot terrible from long-range - a combined 11-for-37 from 3-point territory - and there were only a combined 16 free throws attempted with just 11 made. Yes these are outstanding defensive teams and this is going to be a slow-paced game. But this total is very low reflecting that and the teams are due to shoot better. Florida State has scored 78 or more points in four of its last five games. Also overtime is a stronger possibility than normal with the game lined in the pick range.
01-28-20	Florida State v. Virginia +1		56-61	Win	100	14 h 59 m	Show
Florida State is riding a 10-game win streak. But I like Virginia's defense, grit and home-court to prevail. The Seminoles have won their last three games by a combined nine points with one game going into overtime. They have failed to cover in all three games. One of these victories came 13 days ago when the Seminoles defeated the Cavaliers, 54-40, as 6.5-point home favorites. The Cavaliers missed 12 of 15 shots from 3-point range in that loss. Florida State pulled the game out by outscoring Virginia, 10-3, down the stretch. I don't see that happening at Virginia.
01-26-20	San Diego State v. UNLV +7.5		71-67	Win	100	11 h 18 m	Show
UNLV has turned around its season winning six in a row. The Rebels are strong on the offensive glass ranking sixth nationally in offensive rebound percentage. This could be a serious problem for San Diego State, whose rotation is missing Nathan Mensah and possibly Aguek Arop. The Aztecs are 20-0. But their strong defense will be tested in this tough road setting as UNLV has the most efficient offense in the Mountain West Conference.
01-25-20	CS-Northridge -1.5 v. CS-Fullerton	Top	75-82	Loss	-109	17 h 13 m	Show
Lamine Diane is firmly back in Cal State-Northridge's lineup after missing games due to off-court issues. Diane makes a huge difference. Just ask Cal Santa Barbara. Sparked by Diane's 27 points, the Matadors upset Santa Barbara as big road 'dogs, 83-75, this past Wednesday. It was the seventh time in their last nine road games, the Matadors have covered the spread. Cal State-Fullerton is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 home games, including failing to cover the past nine times as a home 'dog.
01-25-20	Bradley v. Indiana State -2.5		53-61	Win	100	8 h 3 m	Show
Indiana State is one of those great at home teams - 7-0 - bad on the road, where it is 1-6. Bradley is dealing with injuries to key players and has to deal with the Sycamores long range shooting as they lead the Missouri Valley Conference in 3-point shooting percentage.
01-24-20	Kent State v. Buffalo -3.5	Top	70-66	Loss	-107	8 h 18 m	Show
These two teams are going in opposite directions. Kent State started 13-3, but the Golden Flashes are struggling now with a three-game losing streak. I don't see Kent State getting well on the road against two-time defending Mid-American Conference champion Buffalo. The Bulls have won four in a row and won't want to be embarrassed on national TV. Buffalo can be outstanding rebounding on the offensive end and Kent State hasn't done a good job rebounding on the defensive glass.
01-23-20	Washington v. Utah UNDER 136	Top	66-67	Win	100	15 h 1 m	Show
Both Washington and Utah need to get untracked. So I'm expecting a lot of defensive intensity in this matchup. The Huskies rank in the top-40 in scoring defense and are No. 1 in the Pac-12 in defensive field goal percentage. The Huskies have one of the more difficult zone matchup defenses in the country for opponents to solve and Utah has scored much better when going against defenses that primarily play man-to-man. The Huskies held Utah to an average of 49 points in two games last season. Utah's defense hasn't looked good the last three games. But Washington's offense isn't good. The Huskies are averaging just 56 points during regulation in their last four games. Washington has slowed down its offense minus team assists leader Quade Green, who was ruled academically ineligible for the winter semester.
01-21-20	Illinois v. Purdue -5.5	Top	79-62	Loss	-110	14 h 2 m	Show
I want Purdue going for me here off a loss and in revenge mode. Illinois is playing well, winning four in a row. But the Illini are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road contests when meeting a foe with a winning home record. Purdue has one of the strongest home-courts in the nation. The Boilermakers are 8-1 at home this season and have won 15 consecutive Big Ten home matchups. Purdue is coming off a 57-50 road loss to Maryland this past Saturday. The Boilermakers are 9-1-2 ATS following a loss. The Boilermakers also have revenge for an embarrassing 63-37 road defeat to Illinois four games ago. Purdue shot a school-worst 25 percent from the floor in that loss. The Boilermakers have won the last eight times they've hosted the Illini.
01-20-20	Oklahoma +10 v. Baylor	Top	57-61	Win	100	13 h 23 m	Show
Baylor got past Iowa State and escaped Oklahoma State on Saturday. Things don't let up for the No. 2 ranked Bears, though, with this matchup. Oklahoma has its confidence again after beating TCU, 83-63, two days ago. Baylor had a much more difficult time with its Saturday victory against the Cowboys trailing by 12 in the second half. It was a terrible beat for those who backed Oklahoma State at plus 6. The Cowboys trailed by three with 14 seconds left, but ended up losing by seven when Baylor sank four free throws at the end. It was the only time all game that the Bears led by that many points. This has been a road team series with the visitor going 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times.
01-18-20	Kent State v. Western Michigan OVER 144.5		63-67	Loss	-109	7 h 28 m	Show
Only 21 teams average more points per game than Kent State as the Golden Flashes average 79.9 points a game. Western Michigan is a monster Over team when playing at home. The Broncos have gone Over 68 percent of the time during their past 99 home contests. A combination of lack of defense and a faster pace when playing at home are key factors for this huge Over statistic. I'm going to ride this Western Michigan home Over angle especially with Kent State as the road opponent.
01-18-20	Oregon -134 v. Washington		64-61	Win	100	7 h 5 m	Show
I want Oregon going for me here after the Ducks lost, 72-61, as nine-point road favorites against Washington State two days ago. The Ducks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games and should be primed for a much stronger effort. Oregon also has revenge for the Pac-12 title game last season when it lost, 68-48, to the Huskies. Washington has to make a key adjustment with starting point guard Quade Green ruled academically ineligible.
01-18-20	West Virginia v. Kansas State +6	Top	68-84	Win	100	7 h 41 m	Show
West Virginia is in a vulnerable spot coming off probably its best game of the season, an 81-49 home win against TCU this past Tuesday. The Mountaineers shot a season-high 58 percent from the floor. The Mountaineers are going to have to take desperate Kansas State's best punch. The Wildcats' Big 12 season hangs in the balance as they are 0-4. Kansas State is one of the top 45 defenses in the country and they are going to be tough at home in this spot. West Virginia has failed to cover six of the last eight times it has been a road favorite.
01-17-20	Wisconsin v. Michigan State -9	Top	55-67	Win	100	15 h 55 m	Show
Wisconsin is not the same team on the road as it is at home. The Badgers have a losing away mark. The spot isn't good either for Wisconsin. The Badgers are off a thrilling, 56-54, home win against 17th-ranked Maryland this past Tuesday, while Michigan State has had five days to think about its worst loss in three years, a 71-42 road defeat to Purude this past Sunday. The Spartans have covered 68 percent of their last 52 home games versus below .500 road opponents. They have won 11 straight against Wisconsin in East Lansing. Michigan State's best players - Cassius Winston, Xavier Tillman and Aaron Henry - are all off their worst performance. They won't lack motivation. The Badgers can't match that being away from Madison.
01-16-20	Army v. Holy Cross UNDER 143		79-67	Loss	-109	3 h 23 m	Show
Unusual circumstances, an early start time and both teams playing at a slower than perceived pace make going Under the right move for this matchup. Army is averaging fewer than 68 points per game ranking 271st in the country. Army also shoots poorly from 3-point range. The Under has cashed in four of Army's last five games.
01-15-20	Stanford v. UCLA UNDER 133	Top	74-59	Push	0	9 h 51 m	Show
Stanford leads the Pac-12 in giving up the fewest points per game at 58.3, which ranks seventh nationally. The Under is 19-6-1 in Stanford's last 26 overall games. UCLA is giving up an average of 10 more points per game than the Cardinal. However, I see the Bruins clamping down on the defensive end after their coach, Mick Cronin, ripped their lack of defense. The Bruins also are in desperation mode having dropped five of their last six.
01-14-20	Maryland v. Wisconsin -3	Top	54-56	Loss	-105	15 h 0 m	Show
Wisconsin has a very strong home-court and is a better team with big man Micah Potter, an Ohio State transfer, settling in. Potter, who became eligible six games ago, scored a career-high 24 points with 13 rebound as the Badgers defeated then 20th-ranked Penn State, 58-49, on the road this past Saturday. Now the Badgers are in Madison where they are extremely tough. Big Ten home teams are a mind-boggling 32-5 in conference games this season for 86 percent! Consequently, Maryland is a weak road club. The Terrapins have lost their three true road games and are 1-5 ATS in their past six away contests. Maryland just lost by 18 points at Iowa three days ago.
01-12-20	Michigan State -3.5 v. Purdue	Top	42-71	Loss	-119	3 h 15 m	Show
I'm going to ride Michigan State. The Spartans are playing well - eight straight wins - and match up well to Purdue. The Boilermakers have a tough frontcourt with big men Matt Haarms and Trevion Williams. But the Spartans rank No. 2 in the country in rebounding margin and have the tough perimeter defense that Purdue needs to dent in order to set up its inside game. The Boilermakers, though, have been cold from the outside especially from long range missing 27 of their last 36 shots from 3-point range. Michigan State holds a backcourt edge led by point guard Cassius Winston, who is one of the best in the country. The Boilermakers are 0-5-1 ATS the last six times they've been 'dogs.
01-11-20	Mississippi State +8 v. LSU		59-60	Win	100	15 h 50 m	Show
LSU sits tied for the lead in the SEC at 2-0 with victories against Tennessee and Arkansas. Mississippi State is 0-2 in the SEC with losses to Auburn and Alabama by an average of 16.5 points. So things should be easy for LSU, right? Not necessarily. The Tigers are going to get the desperate Bulldogs' best effort, which should be good enough to put them safely in this point spread range. The teams met once last year and LSU won by four points in overtime. A key for the Bulldogs is guard Tyson Carter, the team's second-leading scorer. Carter is a great free throw shooter, but has missed 22 of his last 27 shots from the floor in the last two games. Carter is due to shoot much better.
01-11-20	Western Michigan v. Toledo -10.5	Top	59-67	Loss	-110	15 h 16 m	Show
Toledo is superior to Western Michigan and in the ultimate stop-the-pain mode having lost five in a row. I'm expecting the Rockets to take their frustrations out on the Broncos. They have defeated Western Michigan the past four times, including whipping the Broncos by 19 points at home last March. Toledo is a much better offensive team than Western Michigan averaging nearly 10 points more per game. The Broncos are also weak defensively ranking 279th.
01-11-20	Coastal Carolina v. Texas-Arlington UNDER 146		82-77	Loss	-115	10 h 18 m	Show
The teams met twice last season. The combined amont of points scored were 128 and 119. Now look at this total. The defensive stats for Arlington are misleading due to the schedule the Mavericks have played, which has included Gonzaga, Oregon, Houston and Nevada. Costa Carolina is turnover prone and not a great foul shooting team.
01-10-20	Pennsylvania -115 v. Princeton	Top	58-63	Loss	-115	7 h 31 m	Show
I like Penn in short revenge for a 78-64 loss to Princeton six days ago. The Quakers missed 20 of 23 shots from beyond the arc in that loss. The Quakers have covered their last four road games, while Princeton is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home contests. Penn played a tough non-conference schedule knocking off Alabama and Providence. I expect the combination of the Quakers being the more battled tested team, shooting much better from 3-point territory than they did in the first meeting and being more focused will lead to a victory.
01-09-20	Coastal Carolina v. Texas State UNDER 141.5	Top	66-78	Loss	-110	9 h 19 m	Show
Texas State hasn't scored more than 70 points during its last five games. The Bobcats, though, rank 81st in scoring defense and 56th in defensive field goal percentage. Coastal Carolina has a high scoring average, but commits a lot of turnovers. This has been a low-scoring series. Not once since 2017 has a total exceeded 139 points and that's taking into account seven past meetings during this span. The teams combined to produce 126 points during each of their two games last season.
01-08-20	La Salle v. Massachusetts -3		69-77	Win	100	7 h 48 m	Show
LaSalle is 10-4. UMass is 6-8. Yet the oddsmaker opened UMass a slight faovrite. Early market activity has been on the Minutemen. What does that say? It tells me UMass is the right side. The Minutemen have covered eight of their last nine home games. This isn't a fluke. UMass plays much better at home averaging 80.5 points and shooting 48 percent from the floor. This has been a home series, too, with the host covering six of the past eight in the series.
01-07-20	South Florida v. East Carolina +4	Top	59-62	Win	100	5 h 55 m	Show
South Florida is nothing special. But the Bulls are inflated road favorites here after defeating Connecticut by 15 points at home in their last game. The Bulls have not won a road game all season. East Carolina has the best player in Jayden Gardner and plays better at home. The Pirates have won their last four home games.
01-05-20	Davidson +3.5 v. Duquesne		64-71	Loss	-105	4 h 58 m	Show
The record shows 11-2. But I find Duquesne to be one of the most overrated teams in the nation. I went against the Dukes last Sunday when they were 7-point road favorites against Marshall and was easily rewarded when Marshall won, 83-61. I'm going to fade the Dukes again this Sunday because the linesmaker still is valuing them too high again. Duquesne played an extremely soft non-conference schedule. Davidson didn't. The Wildcats have covered three of their last four, including upsetting Loyola of Chicago on the road.
01-04-20	Oklahoma State v. Texas Tech UNDER 132		50-85	Loss	-115	8 h 36 m	Show
Oklahoma State ranks 11th in defensive field goal percentage and 39th in scoring defense. Texas Tech is known for its stingy defense under coach Chris Beard, one of the best coaches in the country. But there is more than just two outstanding defenses going here that should make this go Under the total. Texas Tech has faced very few strong defensive teams.The Red Raiders have had a tough time going up against opponents who primarily play zone defense, which is the style Oklahoma State uses.
12-30-19	Green Bay +6 v. Northern Kentucky	Top	73-59	Win	100	14 h 22 m	Show
Wright State and Northern Kentucky were the preseason picks to win the Horizon League with Green Bay in the top four. Green Bay played at Wright State this past Saturday and was leading by five points with less than five minutes left before losing, 90-84, but covering as 10-point underdogs. Now the Phoenix draw Northern Kentucky on the road. The oddsmaker is taking into account not only Northern Kentucky being at home, but also beating Green Bay five consecutive times. Half of those victories, though, were by six points or less. Northern Kentucky also has a pair of key injuries. Leading scorer and rebounder for the Norse Dantez Walton is out. Jalen Tate, the Norse's top assist guy and one of the best players in the Horizon League, isn't likely to play either. So Green Bay catches a huge break to be playing the Norse now. The Phoenix play fast and have been receiving solid guard play. They are averaging more than 82 points a game, which is eight points more per game than Northern Kentucky averages.
12-29-19	Duquesne v. Marshall +7		61-83	Win	100	12 h 58 m	Show
I find Duquesne to be one of the most overrated teams in the nation. The Dukes are 10-1, but have played a very weak schedule. They were exposed by UAB, 77-68, in their last game getting upset as nine-point favorites. The oddsmaker still is overrating the Dukes here in this non-conference, neutral site matchup being played in Cleveland. Marshall has received a boost from freshman guard Andrew Taylor, who joined the team this month. The Thundering Herd have won three of their last four games, averaging 86.2 points during this span.
12-22-19	Davidson +3 v. Loyola-Chicago		59-56	Win	100	11 h 45 m	Show
Loyola is 8-4. Davidson is 5-5. But the records are misleading. Davidson has played the much tougher schedule losing to Auburn, Charlotte, Wake Forest and Marquette while also defeating Wilmington and Nevada. The Ramblers are off a satisfying home win against Vanderbilt from four days ago. Davidson last played 12 days ago. So the Wildcats should be well rested and prepared. Davidson's strength is its backcourt and limiting turnovers. Note that this is Christmas break now so Loyola's fan base is going to be down.
12-21-19	Northwestern v. DePaul -5		78-83	Push	0	6 h 43 m	Show
Northwestern is average at best. The question is how good is DePaul? The Blue Demons are much improved. DePaul is 11-1, including 7-1 at home and 7-2 ATS in lined games. The Blue Demons had a strong recruiting class and the breakout has been immediate. The Blue Demons have strong motivation in this city rivalry. Northwestern came from 15 points down to defeat the Blue Demons, 75-68, last season. DePaul has dropped the past four in this series. The time is right now for that streak to end.
12-21-19	Coastal Carolina v. South Alabama OVER 145		81-69	Win	100	6 h 47 m	Show
Coastal Carolina has a top 20 offense averaging 82.1 points. The Chanticleers play fast and shouldn't be hurt by South Alabama's defense. The Jaguars rank 267th defensively, do not force many turnovers and are weak on the defensive boards. Coastal Carolina has a worst defense than South Alabama. The Jaguars average nearly 77 points a game. They should match the Chanticleers in keeping this an up-tempo game. The Over is 5-1-1 in South Alabama's last seven home games, while the Over has cashed in five of Coastal Carolina's last six road contests.
12-17-19	Seattle University +16.5 v. Washington		59-81	Loss	-110	20 h 29 m	Show
Seattle is 6-5 and plays in the Westen Conference. Washington is ranked 22nd in the nation and plays in the far more prestigious Pac-12 Conference. So this high point spread is understandable on the surface. But there is more than meets the eye here. Seattle is playing its best basketball winning four in a row. The Redhawks are senior-laden, better than their record, have more to prove in this crosstowon rivalry matchup and have a big time player in Terrell Brown, who leads the Western Conference in scoring at 20.9 points. The Huskies are not a huge scoring team averaging 73.2 points a game. That ranks eighth in the Pac-12. Turnovers have plagued Washington. The Huskies have lost the turnover battle in seven of their nine games. Their turnover average ranks 267th out of 350 Division I teams. Seattle has played Washington tough each of the past two seasons losing 70-62 last year and 89-84 in 2017. The Redhawks should hang in again this season.
12-17-19	Seattle University v. Washington UNDER 139		59-81	Loss	-109	20 h 28 m	Show
Washington is a Top-25 team and it's not because of its scoring. The Huskies feature a tough zone defense under Mike Hopkins. It has made them a strong Under team. The Under has cashed in 17 of Washington's last 25 games. Seattle is playing excellent defense, too, giving up an average of 60.2 points in its last four games. This is a cross-town rivalry so the intensity factor should be high. Both teams are on long layoffs, too. The Redhawks last played 10 days ago. Washington hasn't been in action for nine days. So expect a rust factor.
12-15-19	CS-Northridge +7.5 v. Pacific		73-79	Win	100	15 h 9 m	Show
A pair of lower-league Northern California teams square off Sunday. Yes, Cal State-Northridge-Pacific is way below the radar screen, especially on an NFL Sunday. But there is enough value on the underdog to get involved with the Matadors. Pacific just nipped the Matadors, 79-77, last season. This year's matchup should be another close encounter. Each team averages 69 points. Pacific is a mid-sized favorite because it is home and has gaudy defensive numbers. There are reasons to believe this line is too high, though. The Tigers haven't played in more than a week. That's too long to be idle at this juncture of the season. Look for a rust factor. Pacific also is 2-7 ATS following a victory. Northridge played four days ago. The Matadors have covered five of their last six and are 4-0 ATS during their past four road games.
12-14-19	Nicholls State +19.5 v. West Virginia		57-83	Loss	-109	11 h 26 m	Show
The oddsmaker isn't giving Nicholls State enough respect. The Colonels are road-tested and have hung in against strong competition. Nicholls State took Illinois to overtime, fell by just just 10 points against ranked LSU, lost by five points each to Pittsburgh and Rhode Island. All of these contests were on the road. The Colonels are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road matchups. West Virginia is coming off an, 84-53, home win against Austin Peay on Thursday. The Mountaineers are 5-13 ATS following a victory.
12-11-19	North Carolina-Asheville v. South Carolina State OVER 153		85-90	Win	100	9 h 2 m	Show
Asheville is a good team to go Over because it averages 82.4 points a game, which ranks 21st in the country, but gives up nearly 75 points a game while ranking 351st in defensive field goal percentage. The Bulldogs play at a fast tempo, too. South Carolina State is better offensively than it's overall numbers show due to its schedule. SCS has played three strong defensive clubs. This has skewed its overall numbers. They should feast against a very weak Asheville defense.
12-10-19	Louisville v. Texas Tech UNDER 130.5	Top	57-70	Win	100	14 h 49 m	Show
This may seem like a low total, but it's not given who these teams are and where this game is being played. Texas Tech has a top defensive coach in Chris Beard. The Red Raiders rank in the top 15 in defensive efficiency, giving up more than 75 points only once in eight games. They also haven't met an opponent nearly the defensive caliber of Louisville. The Cardinals rank 15th in the nation in fewest points allowed at 57.6 and in the top-five in defensive efficiency giving up 0.853 points per possession. Louisville has held its last two opponents - Michigan and Pittsburgh - to an average of 44.5 points a game. Only once have the Cardinals permitted more than 62 points during their last eight games. Making things worse for Texas Tech is its leading scorer, freshman guard Jahmi'us Ramsey, is questionable with a hamstring injury. He's missed the last three games - all Texas Tech losses. The Red Red Raiders have averaged 62.6 points in regulation during those three defeats. This game is at neutral site Madison Square Garden as part of the Jimmy V Classic tournament in New York. The Garden is known for being favorable to Unders because of the tough shooting backdrop, especially so for teams not use to playing there.
12-07-19	Illinois +11 v. Maryland		58-59	Win	100	13 h 50 m	Show
Maryland is unbeaten and ranked No. 3 in the country. But matchup-wise and situationally I can see Illinois staying within single digits of the Terrapins. Illinois is coming off a bad loss to Miami after having won four in a row. The Illini are inconsistent, but they have talent. Illinois beat Maryland last season on the road and the Illini are better this season. Maryland is strong defensively. The Terrapins are vulnerable here, though, because they are not a great shooting team, are undersized in the middle and thus can be exploited by Illinois' talened 7-footer Kofi Cockburn, who averages 23 points, and have a bigger game on deck. The Terrapins are fat and happy opening 9-0 for the first time in 21 years. They face a much bigger challenge playing their first true road game against Penn State on Tuesday. Thus they could get caught peeking past Illinois.
12-04-19	Loyola Marymount +18.5 v. Colorado		64-76	Win	100	19 h 58 m	Show
Colorado is ranked 20th in the latest Top 25 Associated Press poll. The Buffaloes, though, have been sloppy averaging 14 turnovers a game. Loyola Marymount forces 13.5 turnovers per game and shoots 50.7 percent from the floor, which ranks 13th-best in the nation. Those are some of the reasons I like the Lions to cover this margin. But the biggest facor is Colorado plays No. 2 ranked Kansas on Saturday. It's the first time in five years the Buffaloes are playing a Top-25 team while also being ranked in the Top-25. So the Buffaloes may not be fully focused. It could also mean the backdoor is left open for the Lions since Colorado doesn't want to totally tax itself with a such a monster matchup on the horizon.
12-03-19	UTEP +5 v. New Mexico State	Top	56-59	Win	100	19 h 56 m	Show
Yes, home-court and revenge are worth something. Just not this much. The teams met three weeks ago and Texas El-Paso won by 15 points, 65-50. New Mexico State had trouble handling UTEP's press. The Aggies have played better since then. But the Miners also are playing well. They are 5-0 on the season and their bench strength just got a huge boost with Kaden Archie, a transfer from TCU, now eligible. The Miners won the first matchup despite Bryson Williams limited to just 17 minutes due to foul trouble. Williams is the best player on the court averaging 18 points and 6.8 rebounds a game. He still scored 19 points and pulled down eight rebounds in the first meeting. UTEP has covered eight of its last nine nonconference games for 89 percent.
11-30-19	East Carolina v. James Madison OVER 153.5		89-99	Win	100	20 h 46 m	Show
Pace and tempo are a big key in cashing an Over play. We have that with James Madison. The Dukes are running so much they lead the nation in shortest possession time. The result is the Over is 4-1-1 in James Madison's lined games this season. James Madison is coming off a 94-78 home loss to Coppin State. The Dukes were 9-point favorites in that game. The Over is 27-11 following a James Madison loss. This opening total takes into account East Carolina's poor shooting, especially from 3-point range. But the total should have opened higher because the Pirates haven't faced an up-tempo opponent the caliber of James Madison. Instead the Pirates have played tough defensive foes as Liberty, Appalacian State and Navy. The Pirates have better scorers than what their season statistics show.
11-27-19	SE Missouri State v. CS-Fullerton UNDER 135.5	Top	57-64	Win	100	19 h 59 m	Show
Cal-State Fullerton has plyed four Division I foes this season. The Titans are averaging 57.2 points in those games. They didn't break 60 points in any of those games. It's not a big surprise considering the Titans no longer have their high-scoring backcourt due of Khalil Ahmad and Kyle Allman Jr. Those two combined to average more than 35 points a game last season. The Titans not only have to replace the scoring of Ahmad and Allman, but also the way they ran the offense. That's going to take time. Southeast Missouri State also has to replace several of its top scorers from last season. The Redhawks rank 209th in scoring at 71.2 points. That number is skewed, though, by the Redhawks having played two really bad defensive teams of the four opponents they have met. They aren't a good free throwing shooting team either. The Titans have been a big Under team under coach Dedrique Taylor. This has been especially so on neutral courts such as where this one is being played. The Under has cashed in 17 of the Titans' last 23 neutral site games for 74 percent.
11-25-19	Butler v. Missouri UNDER 126.5		63-52	Win	100	7 h 21 m	Show
The total is low here, but it's totally justified. Missouri ranks seventh in the KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency ratings, while Butler is rated 29th in defensive efficiency. Both teams play at a very slow pace especially Butler. Only five teams force more turnovers than Missouri. So the the Bulldogs will be especially careful about pushing pace. The Under has cashed in 13 of Butler's last 16 nonconference matchups. Note this game is being played in Kansas City so neither team is familiar with this neutral court setting, which is another plus for the Under.
11-23-19	Manhattan v. Elon +1		69-64	Loss	-110	6 h 33 m	Show
Far from the glare of the national spotlight is this matchup. Elon is at home and its record is misleading because the Phoenix have played far stronger competition than Manhattan. In its last three games, Elon has taken on Georgia Tech, Michigan and North Carolina. The Phoenix covered against both Michigan and North Carolina. The Jaspers have played far weaker competition and have failed to cover four of the last five times they've played in non-conference.
11-22-19	Idaho State v. Santa Clara UNDER 139		65-78	Loss	-110	21 h 36 m	Show
I don't see many points being scored in this one. Idaho State averages fewer than 68 points a game and is horrible from the foul line. Santa Clara is an excellent perimeter defensive club. The Broncos have held four of their five opponents to 63 points or fewer. The Under is 18-7-1 in the Broncos' past 26 home contests. Idaho State is an above average defensive team. The Bengals rank 2nd in the nation in defensive 3-point field goal percentage. They've gone Under in 21 of their last 31 non-conference games.
11-22-19	Fordham v. Nevada -5.5		60-74	Win	100	15 h 54 m	Show
Don't be fooled by Fordham's 3-0 record and Nevada's 2-3 record. Fordham is terrible. The Rams have just played an easy schedule. Nevada is the superior team and has played vastly better competition with its losses occurring to Davidson, USC and Utah. Note this matchup is part of the eight-team Paradise Jam tournament taking place in the Virgin Islands. The Rams probaby are going to be the worst team in the Atlantic-10 and are the worst of the tournament teams here. The Rams were terrible last season and are down point guard Nick Honor, who led them in scoring last year and transferred to Clemson during the off-season. Nevada has the better shooters and athletes. The Rams have failed to cover 20 of their past 28 times in non-conference games.
11-21-19	Duquesne v. Indiana State UNDER 138.5		74-71	Loss	-121	9 h 47 m	Show
My first look at neutral court games such as this one is toward the Under. This matchup is being played in the Bahamas. Neither team is up-tempo. Missouri Valley Conference teams usually are strong defensively. Indiana State fits that description. Duquesne is more about defense than offense under coach Keith Dambrot. This total opened too high.
11-20-19	Texas State v. UNLV -5		64-57	Loss	-110	22 h 11 m	Show
UNLV is much tougher at home and has played the stronger schedule. The Rebels lost to California and Kansas State both in overtime and also lost to UCLA. Texas State has played just one strong opponent, Baylor. The Bobcats lost that game, 75-63. The Bobcats are 0-2 on the road. UNLV got back to winning and covering defeating Abilene Christian, 72-58, at home on Monday.
11-16-19	St Bonaventure v. Rutgers -8.5		80-74	Loss	-109	16 h 35 m	Show
St. Bonaventure can't shoot. The Bonnies are making just 35 percent from the floor and 23 percent from 3-point range. The result is they are averaging fewer than 60 points per game and are 0-3. I don't see St. Bonaventure ending its shooting woes against Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are 3-0 and ranked 32nd in the country in scoring defense holding opponents to 55.7 points a game. Note this game is being played in Toronto as part of the James Naismith Hall of Fame Classic. Rutgers is playing much better right now than St. Bonaventure. So I'll go ahead and ride the Scarlet Knights against the cold-shooting Bonnies.
11-15-19	Gonzaga -6 v. Texas A&M	Top	79-49	Win	100	19 h 57 m	Show
Guess what? Gonzaga is going to be good again this season - real good. The Bulldogs are ranked seventh in the KenPom rankings and that high rating is totally justified. The Zags have reloaded. They are strong at every position with excellent depth. Each of their three games has been a blowout victory. The Bulldogs rank third in the nation in scoring per 100 possessions and also are No. 2 in field goal percentage. They are undoubtedly a top-five offense. Texas A&M has tuned-up well for Gonzaga meeting two weak foes, Northwestern State and Louisiana Monroe. The Aggies didn't come close to covering big spreads against those foes. Texas A&M ranks 66th in KenPom's rankings. The Bulldogs buried the Aggies, 94-71, last season and hold a huge talent edge again this season.
11-12-19	Miami-FL -1 v. UCF		79-70	Win	100	19 h 25 m	Show
Sharp money has come on Miami and I agree. The Hurricanes should be ready for their first road game having already faced Louisville. The Hurricanes have the talent and ballhandlers to limit their mistakes. Central Florida was very good - last season. The Knights lost most of their team from a year ago retaining just three players. They didn't look good in their opening game, a 73-69 victory against Prairie View. The Knights didn't come close to covering as 16 1/2-point home favorites. Miami is catching Central Florida at a good time, very early in the season.
11-09-19	Idaho +12.5 v. UC Riverside		51-58	Win	100	15 h 13 m	Show
I'm expecting a letdown from Cal-Riverside. The Highlanders opened their season with a stunning 66-47 road win against Nebraska. Riverside was 15 1/2-point underdogs. In hindsight, though, the inexperienced Cornhuskers should not have been such a heavy favorite. I don't believe Riverside is that good. The Highlanders were 3-10 in non-league play last season with a point differential of minus 7.8 points. The Vandals have covered five of their last six games going back to last season. The Highlanders are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
11-08-19	Illinois -7 v. Grand Canyon		83-71	Win	100	19 h 58 m	Show
There is a huge talent gap between these two schools. Maybe the oddsmaker was swayed by Illinois having to go into overtime to dispatch Nicholls State, a 22 1/2-point 'dog, in its opener. Because this line is way short especially given the circumstances at Grand Canyon. The Antelopes lost, 82-73, at home to Division II opponent Davenport in their opener. Grand Canyon received bad news before that game that two of its best players, forward Oscar Frayer and guard Jaylen Fisher, would not be eligible until second semster because of academic troubles. This has really reduced Grand Canyon's depth as Antelopes coach Dan Majerle used just a seven-man rotation. Illinois shouldn't be nearly as tight at it was in its opener. The Illini have a strong guard tandem in Andres Feliz and Ayo Dosunmu and also a pair of promising big men in 6-foot-9 Giorgi Bezhanishvili and 7-footer Kofi Cockburn.
11-06-19	Belmont v. Illinois State +6.5	Top	72-79	Win	100	17 h 13 m	Show
Belmont is coming off an outstanding season. But the Bruins could struggle in this opener. They are a team in transition right now playing with a new coach following the retirement of Rick Byrd and losing their two leading scorers from last season, Dylan Windler and Kevin McClain. Windler averaged 21.3 points and 10.8 rebounds. The Bruins draw Illinois State, a middle-of-the-road Missouri Valley Conference team. MVC schools are known for defense and slow tempos. Illinois State is no exception. I can see the Redbirds frustrating the Bruins at home and getting the cover if not pulling off the outright upset.
11-05-19	St. Mary's v. Wisconsin UNDER 129.5	Top	65-63	Win	100	12 h 56 m	Show
This is a very good opening game, especially if you like defense. Saint Mary's plays at a slow, deliberate tempo under coach Randy Bennett. The Gaels have ranked among the bottom-10 percent in average possession length during each of the last six seasons. Wisconsin finished fourth in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency ratings last season. There is going to be an adjustment period, too, for the Badgers on offense with Ethan Happ gone. He was the focal part of Wisconsin's offense last season. Note this matchup is being played at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. So both teams will be dealing with a completely different environment in a small setting. Keep in mind, too, the new rule where the 3-point line has been moved back to the international distance. That's going to reduce the number of 3-pointers made.
04-08-19	Texas Tech +1.5 v. Virginia	Top	77-85	Loss	-106	34 h 33 m	Show
Texas Tech plus 1 1/2 vs. Virginia Great, great job by Chris Beard and Texas Tech reaching the NCAA Tournament title game. Virginia is here, too. The pressure is all on the Cavaliers - and they usually don't respond well to it. The Cavaliers were the first No. 1 seed in NCAA Tourney history to lose to a 16th seed last year. They trailed Gardner-Webb at halftime in their opening NCAA Tourney game this year. Virginia is darn lucky to even survive having nipped Oregon by four points, slipped past Purdue in overtime and received a couple of official's gifts in edging Auburn by one on Saturday winning in highly controversial fashion. Virginia is 2-7 ATS in its last nine NCAA Tournament games. Texas Tech is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games and 11-0 ATS the past 11 times going against a foe that has a winning record. The Cavaliers for the first time are going to face an opponent that can match them - if not exceed them - defensively. The Red Raiders held Michigan State to its lowest point total of the season, something I'm not sure Virginia could have done.
04-08-19	Texas Tech v. Virginia OVER 117.5	Top	77-85	Win	100	25 h 11 m	Show
I understand these are the two best defensive teams in the country and that obviously the intensity is going to be at its highest level. But the oddsmaker and early marketplace activity is overreacting to this driving this total to this number. It's the lowest of the season for Texas Tech and second-lowest for Virginia. Texas Tech has been a decent scoring team. The Red Raiders are averaging 76.3 points during their past 13 games. The Cavaliers have reached at least 63 points in all but two of their last 13 games. The overtime also is more of a possibility given the close point spread. So is excessive fouling at the end with this being the championship game.
04-06-19	Auburn v. Virginia -5	Top	62-63	Loss	-110	102 h 15 m	Show
Auburn is really going to miss Chuma Okeke. He's the Tigers' leading rebounder, top defender and third-leading scorer. The Tigers have gotten away with his absence by their long-range hot shooting. That's not going to work against Virginia. Not only do the Cavaliers give up the fewest points per game in the nation, but they rank in the top five in defensive field goal percentage, 3-point defense and defensive rebounding. The Cavaliers haven't played up to their capabilities in the NCAA Tournament so far. I see them finally bringing their "A" game to the table here. The Cavaliers have covered 75 percent of their 20 non-home games this season. I trust them in this spot against this one-dimensional opponent missing its best player.
04-02-19	Wichita State v. Lipscomb +1	Top	64-71	Win	100	16 h 16 m	Show
Lipscomb lacks the name recoginition of Wichita State. But the Bisons are the better team. The Bisons had 14 road victories, most in the nation. So they are well-tested away from home. They are 21-7-1 ATS during their past 29 nonconference games. The Bisons have plenty of experience from last season's NCAA Tournament team. They are 19-3 in their last 22 games and rank in the Top 10 in scoring, scoring margin and assists. I respect Wichita State coach Gregg Marshall. But the Shockers are going to have problems matching up against senior guard Garrison Mathews, who can light things up from the perimeter like he did against North Carolina State in the quarterfinals of this NIT tournament scoring 44 points. Matthews has averaged at least 20 points in each of the past three seasons.
04-01-19	DePaul v. South Florida -114	Top	61-63	Win	100	16 h 27 m	Show
Note this is the College Basketball Invitational championship series. But it is the best two-of-three. South Florida needs to protect its home court. The Blue Devils will host South Florida on Wednesday. The Bulls are by far the better defensive team. DePaul is weak defensively and bad on the road. South Florida is ranked higher in Ken Pomeroy's ratings. The Bulls have surrendered just 57 points and 47 points, respectively, during their past two games in the tournament. South Florida is 17-5 at home. DePaul is 3-8 on the road and has failed to cover in its past four away matchups.
03-30-19	Texas Tech v. Gonzaga -4	Top	75-69	Loss	-109	19 h 13 m	Show
Sure Texas Tech has the capability of upsetting Gonzaga. The Red Raiders play tenacious defense and have a tremendous coach in Chris Beard. But Texas Tech would have to play its "A" game and Gonzaga would have to be off its game. I don't see that happening. Gonzaga has the deep tournament experience, a height advantage, leads the nation in scoring and has a very strong defense, too. Gonzaga ranks No. 1 in the country in scoring, field goal percentage, scoring margin and assist-to-turnover ratio. But the Bulldogs aren't just offense. They also ranked sixth in defensive efficiency, tied for sixth in defensive field goal percentage and were tied for 18th in defensive 3-point field goal percentage. The Bulldogs are deeper than Texas Tech, too, with a 10-man rotation. The Red Raiders are going to have problems up front dealing with Gonzaga's star big men, Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke. Add it all up and Gonzaga has enough edges to cover this number.
03-29-19	Virginia Tech v. Duke -7	Top	73-75	Loss	-104	18 h 11 m	Show
Duke had its scare surviving Central Florida, 77-76, in its last game. The Blue Devils pulled that one out down three points with 14.4 seconds left. Expect a much better performance here from the Blue Devils. Duke is big-game, tournament experienced while Virginia Tech hasn't made the Sweet 16 since 1962. The Hokies are 2-6 ATS the past eight times meeting a foe with a winning record. The Blue Devils were missing Zion Williamson when they fell, 77-72, to Virginia Tech on the road during the second-to-last week of the regular season. Duke won't be flat here. The Hokies aren't beating the Blue Devils a second time this season.
03-28-19	Florida State v. Gonzaga UNDER 147.5	Top	58-72	Win	100	19 h 59 m	Show
Gonzaga always is one of the highest scoring teams in the country. That certainly was true this season. The Bulldogs led the nation in scoring at 88.6. But what also is true is the oddsmaker sets very high totals on Gonzaga games knowing the public roots for offense. That's a reason why the Under has won 11 of the last 16 times the Bulldogs have played in the NCAA Tournament. The flip side of this equation is Florida State is very strong defensively. The Seminoles hold foes to 67 points per game and rank 30th in defensive field goal percentage. Florida State held Gonzaga to 60 points when the teams met in the NCAA Tournament last season. The combined score added up to 135 points with the Seminoles scoring a 75-60 upset win. Gonzaga should play with super intensity in this rematch. The Bulldogs, though, didn't encounter too many elite defenses competing in the West Coast Conference. St. Mary's probably was the best. The Gaels held Gonzaga to an average of 58 points during the past two meetings. The Bulldogs are a very underrated defensive club. They ranked 31st defensively surrendering an average of 64.8 points a game. Forida State is not a good shooting team and well below average in 3-point shooting percentage ranking a dismal 221st. Note, too, the venue for this matchup. It's the Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif., where the Under has covered 73 percent of the time during the past 55 times when the total was 124 1/2 or higher.
03-27-19	Colorado v. Texas -5.5	Top	55-68	Win	100	19 h 54 m	Show
Texas is home and the superior team. The Longhorns rank 30th, according to Kenpom ratings, while Colorado checks in at No. 63. The key question is how motivated are the Longhorns? They were tremendously disappointed not to make the NCAA Tournament. Colorado, on the other hand, has embraced the NIT with its young players having the attitude of using this tournament to gain valuable postseason experience for next year. Fewer than 1,600 fans showed up for Texas' first round home game in the NIT. Normally the Longhorns draw more than 10,000 fans for their home contests at the Erwin Center. The Longhorns doubled their attendance for their second NIT home game. Now with the Longhorns a win away from going to New York for the semifinals of the tournament, the fans and team are starting to get excited. If motivated, Texas should cover this number against Colorado. The Buffaloes are 5-8 in true road contests. Texas is 14-6 at home. Among the Longhorns' home wins were victories against Purdue, Oklahoma, Kansas, Baylor and Iowa State. All of those teams made the NCAA Tournament. The Big East was much better than the Pac-12 this season. Texas didn't make the Big Dance because it went 1-4 down the stretch, including losing to Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament. Star guard Kerwin Roach was suspended for all those games. Roach is back and off his best game in more than a month scoring 21 points with eight rebounds and six assists in the Longhorns' 78-76 overtime victory in their second-round NIT game against Xavier. That's a very encouraging sign for Texas. And just another reason why I like the Longhorns to cover this number.
03-26-19	Charleston Southern v. Hampton OVER 157		67-73	Loss	-109	16 h 43 m	Show
There is history between these teams. It came on Jan. 10 with Hampton beating Charleston Southern, 94-82. That's a combined 176 points. Now the teams meet again in the College Insider Tournament with the total opening 19 points shorter than the final score of the first game. Only 20 teams in the nation averaged more points than Hampton. The Pirates shoot 78.1 percent from the foul line. That ranks seventh in the nation. Yet the Pirates made just 11 of 19 free throws for 57.9 percent in their earlier victory versus Charleston Southern. The Buccaneers managed 82 points versus Hampton despite shooting 40.3 percent from the floor and connecting on only 9 of 33 shots from 3-point range. Hampton has scored at least 81 points in eight of its last 11 games. The Over is 14-6-1 in the Pirates' past 21 games.
03-25-19	Longwood +15 v. DePaul	Top	89-97	Win	100	16 h 55 m	Show
If you're going to lay this big of a number in a tournament, you better play at least decent defense. DePaul doesn't. The Blue Demons give up 75.5 points a game, which ranks 276th. Only once in their last 20 games have the Blue Demons won by a margin this big. DePaul is 11-26-3 (29.7 percent) following a victory. Reaching the quarterfinals of the College Basketball Invitational may not be a big deal for some teams, but it is for Longwood, a team from the Big South Conference. The Lancers opened the tournament rolling past Southern Mississippi, as 9 1/2-point home 'dogs. That was the 10th time in their last 11 tries the Lancers had covered in a non-conference matchup. DePaul is the home team here. Yet it should be noted that the Blue Demons won't be on their regular home court. It's being used to host a women's basketball tournament. So this game is being played at a much smaller gym that is the home of the DePaul women's volleyball team.
03-24-19	Ohio State v. Houston UNDER 132.5		59-74	Loss	-109	30 h 31 m	Show
Both teams have outstanding defenses and play at slow tempos. They aren't going to change their styles. Given the importance of this matchup, Under is the right way to look. Houston gives up just 61.1 points a game, which ranks seventh-best in the country, and holds foes to a nation-best 36.5 percent shooting from the floor. The Cougars also have the No. 1 3-point defense. Ohio State is no match for that as the Buckeyes average fewer than 70 points per game. The Buckeyes, though, rank 42nd defensively holding foes to 66 points a game.
03-24-19	Oklahoma v. Virginia -11		51-63	Win	100	21 h 37 m	Show
Rarely has Oklahoma encountered a defense as tough as Virginia's. When the Sooners did they did not fare well going 0-5 versus Wisconsin and two games each against Texas Tech and Kansas State. Not once in those five games did the Sooners break the 61-point barrier. Virginia is the No. 1 defensive team in the country - by a wide margin. The Cavaliers rank No. 1 in scoring defense, No. 2 in 3-point defense and No. 5 in defensive field goal percentage. Oklahoma is extremely lucky to even make the Tournament. The Sooners entered tournament play 4-8 SU, 4-7-1 ATS. Oklahoma can get hot, though. The Sooners did just that in blowing out overachieving Mississippi, 95-72, on Friday. Now, though, the Sooners are going way up in class. They are 1-4 ATS the past five times following a victory. The Cavaliers aren't taking anything for granted after they became the first No. 1 seed to lose in the first round of the tournament falling to Maryland-Baltimore Country last season.The Cavaliers were tight during the first half of their Thursday opening round tournament game against Gardner-Webb. But then they found their groove in the second half to pull away for a 71-56 victory.
03-23-19	Murray State +5 v. Florida State	Top	62-90	Loss	-115	16 h 12 m	Show
On the surface, this spread should be higher, right? A good ACC team in Florida State taking on Murray State from the Ohio Valley Conference. But there is more than meets the eye here. Murray State is legitimate and on a roll with 12 straight wins. Racers guard Ja Morant may be the second-best player in college basketball in back of only Duke's Zion Williamson. The Racers didn't just beat but dominated a very strong Marquette squad, 83-64, on Thursday. The Racers are on a mission to showcase their talents and Morant's superstar game - 24.4 points, 10.2 assists and 50.4 percent shooting statistics on the season. Florida State had to endure a rugged ACC slate and reaching the conference tournament title game. So sure the Seminoles are battle tested, but the flip side is they also have a higher fatigue factor. That may have been played a part in their less-than-sterling 76-69 non-cover win against Vermont on Thursday. Vermont sank 16 of 32 shots from 3-point range. That could prove telling against the up-tempo gunning Racers. Florida State relies on its size and defense to beat opponents. The Seminoles don't have a Morant. Murray State, though, has a couple of big man pounders in KJ Williams and Darrell Coward to keep competitive on the boards. The Racers are 8-2 ATS, too, during their last 10 non-conference games. Florida State is 1-6 ATS the past three plus seasons under Leonard Hamilton when laying points in post-season tournament action.
03-22-19	UCF v. VCU OVER 126.5		73-58	Win	100	18 h 25 m	Show
VCU ranks 10th defensively in the country. Central Florida gives up the 27th fewest points. So naturally we have a low opening total. But don't be surprised if far more points are scored than anticipated. Central Florida produced 69 and 68 points, respectively, against Houston this season. The Cougars were statistically even better than VCU ranking eighth in the nation in fewest points allowed per game. VCU has a string of scoring 69 or more points in 10 consecutive games. The point spread is around pick, too, so overtime remains a real possibility.
03-22-19	Arizona State v. Buffalo -4.5	Top	74-91	Win	100	13 h 42 m	Show
Buffalo blasted Arizona, 89-68, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last season. I easily can see the Bulls doing the same to a much worse Arizona State squad. The Bulls are the MAC champions. So it's easy to point out they are a mid-major, but Buffalo dominated that conference while the Pac-12 was way down this season. I don't see the Sun Devils being able to keep pace with the Bulls especially with point guard Remy Martin dealing with a groin injury. I'm sure Martin, the catalyst for the Sun Devils, will play but I doubt he will be 100 percent. The Bulls are riding a 12-game winning streak. They are the more rested team having last played on Saturday. ASU had to beat St. John's on Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio to reach this game. This marks the Sun Devils' third game in eight days - all in different time zones. Buffalo is the fifth-highest scoring team in the country at 84.9 points. That's more than seven points better than what Arizona averages. The Bulls certainly aren't going to lack motivation taking on a Pac-12 opponent especially with the added incentive of going against Bobby Hurley, the former coach of Buffalo. Bulls coach Nate Oats was Hurley's lead assistant and recruiting coordinator before replacing his departed mentor. Note, too, that Buffalo is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games against nonconference opponents.
03-21-19	Florida v. Nevada -2	Top	70-61	Loss	-109	21 h 40 m	Show
Nevada has far more talent and experience than Florida. The Gators are lucky to have made the Tournament given that they have 15 losses. The Wolf Pack paid their dues last season. They reached the Sweet 16 and have all their key pieces back. I consider Eric Musselman one of the top coaches in the nation. The spread is lower than I thought. One reason for this could be Nevada getting upset, 65-56, as 10 1/2-point favorites against San Diego State in the semifinals Mountain West Conference Tournament. The Wolf Pack are much better than that. They were missing their second leading scorer and top rebounder, Jordan Caroline, in that game. Carolina is expected to play here. Nevada is 19-6-1 ATS following a loss.
03-21-19	Murray State v. Marquette -3		83-64	Loss	-117	19 h 42 m	Show
I'm going to fade the line move here. Marquette isn't getting enough respect from the marketplace while Murray State is getting too much. The Racers have Ja Morant and little else. Marquette has its own superstar, Markus Howard, and a far superior supporting case. Howard has been dealing with a wrist injury, but is fine. The Golden Eagles get check marks across the board against Murray State - better defense, stronger rebounding team and superior from the foul line.
03-21-19	Bradley v. Michigan State -18		65-76	Loss	-110	17 h 51 m	Show
Tom Izzo isn't happy Michigan State didn't get a No. 1 seed. So some team is going to pay the price. That team is Bradley, a a typical Missouri Valley Conference squad that can play defense but can't score. The Braves rank 311th in scoring averaging 66.6 points. They are not a high percentage shooting team, nor good at making free throws. The Braves averaged 57 points in their three Missouri Valley Conference Tournament games. Michigan State is used to this type of opponent being in the Big Ten except its competition is far stronger. The Spartans' last four opponents have been Michigan twice, Wisconsin and Ohio State. Bradley is a major step down. The Braves aren't going to be able to keep up with Michigan State's superstar guard Cassius Winston and have no backdoor capabilities when trailing by double-digits. Bradley also doesn't have any tournament pedigree like Michigan State. The Braves have lost 17 straight games to Top 25 opponents. They last played in the NCAA Tournament in 2006.
03-20-19	Sam Houston State +13.5 v. TCU		69-82	Win	100	18 h 53 m	Show
Don't sleep on Sam Houston State. The Bearkats will be far more motivated for this NIT matchup than Texas Christian. The Horned Frogs had their sights set on the NCAA Tournament. But a blown 12-point lead in a loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 Conference Tournament doomed TCU's NCAA chances. It's hard to imagine TCU getting up for this matchup. The Horned Frogs have failed to cover in six of their last seven home games. TCU finished its regular season 3-7. Sam Houston State is 17-3 in its last 20 games. The Bearkats have covered nine of their last 11 road contests and also are 10-4 ATS during their past 14 non-conference matchups. They also are a far betting free throw shooting team than TCU.
03-19-19	Dayton v. Colorado -4.5	Top	73-78	Win	100	28 h 48 m	Show
Unlike the NCAA Tournament, some teams aren't excited about getting to play in the NIT. Dayton is one such team. The Flyers finished their regular season in highly disappointing style losing, 64-55, as 4 1/2-point favorites against St. Louis in their opening game of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament. Indications are the Flyers are not excited about traveling to Boulder, Colo., for this matchup. Not helping matters for the Flyers is their leading scorer, Obi Toppin, is deaing with a knee injury. Contrary to Dayton, Colorado is excited about competing in this tournament. The Buffaloes are young and expect to return all of their main players for next season. They want to use this tournament to gain more big-game experience. The Buffaloes are 10-3 in their last 13 games. They also have covered eight of the last 10 times versus opponents with a winning record. This is what Colorado coach Tad Boyle was quoted as saying about his team and playing in the NIT: "We're playing well here down the stretch. There are a few teams that are leaking oil this time of year, but we're not one of them. I like the way we're playing and really the key for our guys is they are excited, they are going to embrace this. They did not want their season to end."
03-17-19	Michigan v. Michigan State OVER 129.5	Top	60-65	Loss	-114	12 h 29 m	Show
This is the third meeting between these two teams. The total opened the lowest of the three games. I understand that thinking since Michigan and Michigan State know each other backward and forward now. But I also believe there are factors and facts that will make this the highest scoring matchup of the three games. Michigan is playing well. The Wolverines scored 74 and 76 points, respectively, in beating Iowa and Minnesota so far in the Big Ten Conference Tournament. They are in a nice scoring groove. Michigan State is averaging 76 points in its two games versus the Wolverines. The Spartans are averaging 77.5 points in their last four games and that includes a 67-point game against Wisconsin, which has the ninth-ranked defense in the country. The Wolverines haven't been able to stop Michigan State's star guard, Cassius Winston, who has hurt Michigan with his shooting and working the pick-and-roll with Xavier Tillman. It's a plus for Michigan State if Nick Ward can produce points in the low post after returning from a broken hand. Michigan's scoring is going to be helped because Charles Matthews, its third-leading scorer, is back. He hurt his ankle in the first meeting between the teams and sat out the second get together.

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