Quietly without a lot of hoopla, the Rays are only 2 1/2 games out of first place in the AL East. The Rays are 10-4 in their last 14 games, have nine more wins than the Orioles, are home and hold a pitching edge.

Given all of these advantages, I believe the price is low enough to back Tampa Bay.

Rays starter Taj Bradley remains intriguing. He does go hot and cold, though. Right now he's been more on than off giving up two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. The Orioles' offense looks much better on paper. Baltimore ranks only 24th in runs despite playing in one of the top hitter's parks.

Bradley is backed by an elite Rays bullpen that has the second-lowest ERA in the majors at 3.08.

Getting the start for Baltimore is Trevor Rogers, who is freshly promoted from the minors. He had a 5.51 ERA - in the minors.

The Cardinals upset the Brewers on Saturday. But I like Milwaukee to come back strong today. They are home and hold pitching edges, both starting and bullpen. 

Milwaukee is much hotter than St. Louis.

Even with yesterday's loss, the Brewers still are 13-6 in their last 19 games. The Cardinals are 1-6 in their last seven games.  

The pitching matchup is soft-tossing Miles Mikolas versus Quinn Priester. 

Mikolas is having his typical below-average season with a 4.48 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Priester quietly has become an important contributor to the Brewers' starting rotation with a 2.35 ERA in his last seven games. 

The Cardinals' bullpen has a 4.69 road ERA. St. Louis closer Ryan Helsley has given up an earned run in each of his last four appearances.

The buy sign has finally flashed on for George Kirby. He seems to have turned the corner after coming off the injured list giving up four earned runs combined during his last two starts spanning 12 innings with a 17-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Kirby has a lifetime 3.15 ERA, too, in 44 career starts at T-Mobile Park.

Kirby faces a Cleveland offense that ranks 24th in runs, batting average and OPS. Seattle has an elite closer, Andres Munoz.

Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee was on the cusp of being an ace, but has regressed this season. He's been especially bad on the road with a losing record and 4.99 ERA. Another alarming thing about Bibee is he surrenders 2.5 home runs per nine innings when pitching on the road. Seattle ranks sixth in the majors in homers.

The Guardians' bullpen is showing wear and tear from the heavy work of past seasons ranking only 14th in ERA and among the bottom-10 in WHIP.

When we last came upon Eduardo Rodriguez he was enduring a four-game stretch of allowing 21 earned runs in 16 innings. That was back in late April and early-to-mid May. He's been on the injured list with a sore shoulder.

Since then, Rodriguez made one rehab start in the Arizona Complex League and was tagged for three runs in 4 2/3 innings. Those three runs came on three homers. Now Rodriguez is scheduled to go here against the Reds and Nick Lodolo.

Lodolo has a 3.10 ERA. He's giving up an average of 0.9 homers and 1.8 walks per nine innings. Lodolo held the Cubs, the No. 1 scoring team in the majors, scoreless in his most recent start going six innings. The Reds have a rested bullpen having been idle yesterday.

So not only do the home Reds have a starting pitching edge, but also a bullpen advantage. Rodriguez could be on a pitch count. Arizona relievers have the fourth-highest bullpen ERA at 5.25.

It's not like the Diamondbacks are so superior to the Reds either. They just have one more victory on the season than Cincinnati.

I think the price is fair to back a hot Framber Valdez with a rested Josh Hader in the bullpen against what is another horrendous Pirates team.

Valdez is 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in his last three starts. He is 6-2 with a 2.73 ERA in his last 10 starts. Houston is 5-0 in Valdez's last five starts. The Astros also have a rested Hader to close out the game if necessary. Hader is having another top-five closer season.

The Pirates are 22-38, 11 games worse than the Astros in the loss column.

Pittsburgh has some promising young pitchers. Veteran Mitch Keller once was one of them - a long time ago. Keller has become just a mediocre pitcher at best. Pittsburgh is 1-8 in Keller's last nine starts. Keller's career numbers at PNC Park are 15-28 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.

The Pirates' offense is way down again this season ranking second-from-the-bottom in runs and homers. Pittsburgh is averaging only 2.8 runs in its last five games.

Don't let Charlie Morton ruin your Memorial Day. Fade him and take the Cardinals. The price is low enough to get the superior team with the better starting pitcher.

St. Louis is 30-23. Baltimore is 18-34. One reason for the Orioles' horrible season is Morton. Baltimore is 0-10 in his starts. Morton isn't exactly pitching in bad luck either with a 7.86 ERA and 1.76 ratio. Talk about a waste of $15 million. The Orioles certainly could have spent that money better than getting a washed-up 41-year-old.

Meanwhile, Cardinals starter Erick Fedde remains solid with a 3.77 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. He's giving up 0.8 home runs per nine innings compared to Morton, who has surrendered nine homers in 41 innings for an average of two per nine innings. Fedde is 2-0 this month with a 2.55 ERA.

Pittsburgh is going for its third straight win against the Brewers. I don't see the Pirates getting it. The Brewers are six games better than the Pirates and have the superior starting pitcher going with impressive rookie Logan Henderson facing Bailey Falter.

Henderson is 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.81 ratio. The Pirates have the worst offense in the majors ranking among the bottom-three in runs, batting average, homers and OPS.

Milwaukee ranks 16th in runs and first in stolen bases. Falter has a 3.50 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He's due for regression. His lifetime ERA in the majors is 4.47 and he doesn't miss many bats with 39 strikeouts in 54 innings.

The White Sox upset the Rangers on Friday and I like them to do it again on Saturday in a pitching matchup of righties, rookie Jack Leiter versus Jonathan Cannon.

Texas could be the most disappointing offensive team in the American League. The Rangers have been especially bad against righties ranking 28th in on-base percentage, 27th in OPS and 26th both in batting average and slugging percentage.

Cannon has been excellent in three home starts this season with a 1.17 ERA.

The White Sox's offense is nothing to brag about either, but Leiter has pitched poorly in three of his last four starts giving up 14 earned runs in 22 2/3 innings during this span.

The Braves are coming on winning nine of their last 14 games. They hold a strong pitching edge here with Spencer Schwellenbach going against Brayan Bello.

Schwellenbach is an elite pitcher. He has a 3.31 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Schwellenbach's ratio is even better in day games at 0.99.

Bello's 2.33 ERA is deceiving. He has a 1.41 WHIP and an expected ERA of above 5.00. Unlike Schwellenbach, Bello doesn't pitch well during the day with a 1.64 WHIP.

Boston is 1-4 in its last five games, surrendering an average of eight runs during this span.

I'm going to ride the Twins, who are the hottest team in baseball with a 12-game win streak. The Twins have a starting pitching edge and the price is low enough to back them.

Minnesota starter Pablo Lopez has a 1.96 road ERA. He's a solid No. 3 rotation pitcher closer to a No. 2 than a No. 4.

This could be a bullpen game for the Brewers, who are expected to open with Tobias Myers. The Brewers had to recall Myers from the minors quicker than they wanted because of a shoulder injury to Jose Quintana. Myers was struggling with a 1.53 WHIP.

The Twins are averaging 5.6 runs in their last five games. There's a good chance they get Byron Buxton back in their lineup. He passed concussion clearance.

Milwaukee has been shut out in three of its last four games. If you discount a 9-5 victory versus the Guardians, the Brewers have only managed 10 runs in their last seven games.

The Yankees often are overpriced. This is another example. Unlike the A's, who were idle on Thursday, the Yankees were in action for the sixth consecutive day with all these games being played at Yankee Stadium.

Now, though, the Yankees hit the West Coast for the first time this season. They have yet to play in the Pacific time zone. They also have never played at Sutter Park, the A's temporary home in Sacramento.

New York has excellent season-long offensive numbers. However, the Yankees' offense is less imposing with power hitting/speedster Jazz Chisholm on the injured list.

The A's have an underrated offense with a number of young, promising hitters. They should do well facing Will Warren, who shouldn't be in New York's starting rotation. He has a 5.65 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Warren is surrendering 1.3 home runs per nine innings, a dangerous number entering what could be the best hitting park in the American League.

Oakland starter Osvaldo Bido has bad numbers, mainly because of one terrible start against the Rangers. Other than that, though, he's been solid giving up two or fewer earned runs in five of his other six starts. I like the A's backend of their bullpen better than the Yankees, too, given the horrific struggles of Devin Williams.

Nothing fancy here. Just that the price is right to back the Mets, who are better than the Diamondbacks and have the superior starter going in Kodai Senga.

Senga has permitted just three runs during his past five starts. He has a 1.38 ERA. Arizona hitters are batting a combined less than .150 against Senga. The Mets have the third-lowest bullpen ERA in the National League. 

Arizona starter Merrill Kelly has a 4.06 ERA. The Diamondbacks' bullpen has a 4.48 ERA compared to the Mets' relief pitchers, who have a 3.14 ERA.

There aren't going to be many times when I go against the Dodgers. But this is one of those rare instances. The price is right to back the improving Braves in a pitching matchup of rookie Roki Sasaki versus Spencer Schwellenbach.

Sasaki has tremendous upside. But he's learning to pitch in the majors right now. He's 0-1 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. He has only 20 strikeouts in 25 1/3 innings.

The Braves have started playing better winning nine of their last 13 games. They can do well facing a pitcher, who doesn't miss a lot of bats.

The biggest factor, though, why I like Atlanta here is Spencer Schwellenbach. He has a 2.87 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. If he's not elite, he's close to it. If the Dodgers have a vulnerability, it's going against excellent right-handed pitchers.

The Angels rank among the bottom-six in many major offensive categories, including batting average, runs, OPS and steals. Mike Trout, the Angels' leader in homers and RBI's, might not play because of a sore knee. 

And the Angels also are starting Yusei Kikuchi, who has a 4.31 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. 

The Tigers have the best record in the American League at 19-12. They are pitching a rejuvenated Casey Mize, who is backed by a deep bullpen that has the second-lowest ERA in the American League.

So, what's not to like about taking the Tigers here? Nothing. The price is right to back Detroit, whose offense has picked up averaging 5.5 runs in its last seven games.

The Phillies are only one game above .500. Blame that disappointing record on Aaron Nola. He stinks.

Nola has gone from a near-ace to one of the worst starters in the league. He's 0-5 with a 6.43 ERA. Nola has surrendered eight homers in 29 innings giving him a career-worst rate of 1.9 homers per nine innings. He also has been walking too many batters.

There isn't much wind forecast for today's game. However, Nola faces a Cubs offense that leads the majors in runs per game at 6.1. Chicago also is sixth in homers and ranks No. 2 in batting average, OPS and steals. The Cubs are 17-11.

Chicago is pitching Jameson Taillon, who has a 4.73 ERA but a respectable 1.20 WHIP. Taillon was rocked by the Diamondbacks in his first start. He has settled down giving up eight runs in his last four starts spanning 22 1/3 innings. Taillon has had at least six strikeouts in three of those four starts.

Framber Valdez is a two-time All-Star, who is rounding into his All-Star form. Valdez held the Padres to two runs in six innings during his last start six days ago. Now he draws the weak-hitting Royals.

Kansas City is last in the majors in homers and second-from-the-bottom in runs and OPS. The Royals' best player, Bobby Witt, is 1-for-12 lifetime against Valdez.

Josh Hader, the Astros' dominant closer, is rested. I see Valdez and Hader, if needed, dominating the Royals' weak offense.

Kansas City is starting Michael Wacha, who is 0-3 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Current Houston batters are 10-for-24 against Wacha with six extra base hits.

Perhaps the Orioles' young talent is overrated. Whatever the case, Baltimore is off to a disappointing 9-14 start. The Orioles are in danger of being swept in their Beltway Series against the Nationals, especially with a pitching matchup of Cade Povich versus MacKenzie Gore.

Gore is the Nationals' best pitcher, an emerging star. Povich is the Orioles' worst pitcher. Povich isn't ready for the majors. He has a 6.38 ERA and a mind-blowingly bad 2.07 WHIP. Gore has a 3.41 ERA and 1.21 WHIP while averaging 13.9 strikeouts per nine innings.

If the Orioles are the superior team right now they haven't shown it and they are at a huge pitching disadvantage.

The Mets are going for a three-game sweep of the Phillies in this early-start matchup. I don't see them getting it. In Zack Wheeler I trust.

It's rare to lay such a low price on the Phillies when Wheeler pitches. I'll take advantage of that.

Lefty David Peterson has become a reliable middle-of-the-rotation starter for the Mets. But he's not in Wheeler's elite class and he's facing a top-10 Phillies offense.

Peterson has a career 4.98 ERA in 10 lifetime appearances against the Phillies.

Philadelphia is 36-28 the last two years against lefty pitching.

I wish future Hall of Famers who are well past their prime and embarrassing themselves by staying in the majors would show some dignity and retire gracefully.

Not Justin Verlander.

The 42-year-old is now with the Giants. It hasn't been going well for him. Verlander is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in four starts.

The Angels know Verlander. He made three starts against the Angels last year and had a 7.36 ERA.

I'm not a huge fan of Angels starter lefty Yusei Kikuchi. But he's better than Verlander and coming off an excellent start against the Rangers where he gave up only one run on three hits in six innings.

San Francisco is 2-5 versus southpaws.

The Yankees' bats have cooled off. New York is averaging 3.8 runs in its last six games, exceeding four runs only once during this span.

I don't see the Yankees scoring much either facing Shane Baz, who can be dominant when healthy. Right now Baz is healthy. Baz has a 1.42 ERA and an 0.84 WHIP in three starts this season with a 27-to-four strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The Yankees have one major weakness in their starting rotation - Carlos Carrasco. He gets the start here. The washed-up 38-year-old Carrasco has a 5.94 ERA.

There's a chance the Yankees could be minus Jazz Chisholm, who is facing a one-game suspension.

The spot and pitching matchup set up well for the home Blue Jays. The price is low enough to get involved with Toronto.

Toronto has a rested bullpen after being idle on Thursday. Seattle, meanwhile, had to go through its bullpen again going extra innings to defeat the Reds in Cincinnati on Thursday. Both teams' have excellent closers. But Seattle's Andres Munoz may be unavailable having pitched the past two days throwing a combined 32 pitches.

I favor the Blue Jay's in the starting pitcher matchup, too, of Bryan Woo versus Bowden Francis. Woo is much better when he throws at his pitcher-friendly home park. Woo gave up four earned runs in six innings to the Giants in his first and only road start this season. He has never pitched at Toronto. The Blue Jays are 7-3 at home.

Francis is a strong home park pitcher. He's 5-1 with a 2.76 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at  Rogers Centre.

Not only have the Guardians been playing better than the Orioles, but they have a vastly superior starting pitching going here.

Tanner Bibee isn't elite, but he isn't far away. I have him as a "B" tier pitcher with the chance to rise to "A" level status this season. Bibee is backed by a strong Cleveland bullpen that has the second-lowest ERA in the majors.

I'm not nearly as high on Baltimore's Tomoyuki Sugano, a soft-tosser who only has five strikeouts in 14 innings.

The Guardians are 6-2 in their last eight games despite losing to Baltimore on Wednesday. The Orioles are 4-8 in their last 12 games.

I can sum up my handicap to the Angels in two words: Patrick Corbin. He's making his second start for the Rangers.

I don't understand why Texas signed Corbin. Since 2020, Corbin's won-lost record is 33-70. His ERA the previous four seasons is 5.62, 5.20, 6.31 and 5.82. He has a 6.75 ERA and 1.75 WHIP this season after giving up three earned runs on five hits, including a homer, and two walks in four innings against the Cubs during his first start this year.

The Angels are 9-7. They appear improved. They rank 10th in runs and have hit the third-most homers.

Texas is 2-5 in its past seven games. The Rangers are 28th in runs. They are facing Jose Soriano, who I consider the Angels' best pitcher. Soriano is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his first three starts. Lifetime against the Rangers, Soriano is 1-0 with a 0.93 ERA in three games.

The combination of Hunter Brown starting and a rested Josh Hader in the bullpen puts me on the Astros.

Brown has shown great  promise. This could be the year he breaks out in a big way. Brown is 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in three starts this season. Hader is a top-five closer, good for two innings if needed.

Erick Fedde, a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter, goes for St. Louis. He has a 4.20 ERA this season.

It's imperative for the Rays they get off to a fast start with 19 of their first 22 games at home. So far that hasn't happened as Tampa  Bay is 6-8.

However, the Rays are off a big 8-3 Sunday win against the Braves. Tampa Bay's hitters are starting to come around and they hold a pitching edge here with Shane Baz going against Boston's Tanner Houck.

I like Rays manager Kevin Cash and I like his pitchers. That includes Baz, who is 1-0 with a 1.39 ERA. Baz has a 2.03 ERA in his last five starts going back to last season. Health, not talent, is the concern with him.

Boston has a losing record, too.  The Red Sox are 1-5 in their last six games. They are averaging two runs per game in their last seven games. Rafael Devers is hitless in his past 10 at bats. Alex Bregman is batting .190 during his last six games.

Houck is 0-1 with a 4.41 ERA.

So the price is low enough to back the Rays.

Monday Free Play

Royals plus $1.27 at Yankees

What is Carlos Carrasco doing on a big league roster? Worse, what  is he still doing in the Yankees' starting rotation?

I don't care how many pitching injuries the Yankees have, they certainly can do better than Carrasco.

The 38-year-old Carrasco has given up 10 runs in 12 innings for a 7.71 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. The washed-up righty holds a 5.39 ERA for the last five years. His ERA the past two seasons was 5.64 and 6.80.

Opposing Carrasco is Seth Lugo. I don't quite buy into Lugo's All-Star status, but he's certainly a solid pitcher. He has a 3.24 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Lugo also has a strong history against the Yankees with a 5-2 record, to go with a 2.55 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 35 1/3 innings.

The Yankees rank in the top-three in runs and homers. However, they've cooled off. Only once in their last seven games have they scored more than four runs. Aaron Judge hasn't homered during his last eight games.

Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez, meanwhile, have started to heat up for the Royals.

The backend of Kansas City's bullpen has been better than the Yankees' top relief pitchers, too. Closer Devin Williams has looked terrible for New York so far.

The Mets' Tylor Megill is an emerging pitcher. Toronto's Kevin Gausman is on the decline. The Mets are the superior team and at home. So I believe the price is more than fair to back New York.

The Blue Jays are off to a 5-2 start. Keep in mind, though, four of those victories were achieved against the Nationals. All of Toronto's games have been at home, too, until now.

Megill opened the season beating Houston, 3-1, this past Friday. He has a 1.80 ERA following that game. Toronto's hitters are batting only .206 against Megill in a combined 34 at bats.

The Mets hold a bullpen advantage on Toronto, too. New York relievers have a 1.64 ERA compared to Toronto's bullpen ERA of 5.47.

New York is averaging six runs a game during its past three games.

The Diamondbacks got past the Yankees, 7-5, on Tuesday in their first road game of the season. But the combination of going from the west coach to the east coast and a pitching matchup of Zach Gallen versus lefty Carlos Rodon is going to catch up to the Diamondbacks today.

Gallen did not look good on his opening day start against the Cubs allowing four runs in four innings permitting four hits and four walks. That was at home where he historically pitches much better.

Now Gallen faces the Yankees with their torpedo bats. New York has scored 41 runs in four games. 

Rodon, contrary to Gallen, was sharp in his first start. He held the Brewers to one run in 5 1/3 innings with seven strikeouts. 

Arizona had a losing record against southpaws last season and are 1-2 against them this season.

Sense of urgency. Home field. Superior starting pitcher. Fair line price. Those are my reasons for liking the Yankees to beat the Dodgers in Game 3 down 0-2 in the World Series.

The Yankees could have won both of the first two games. They were within one out of winning Game 1 and had their chance in the ninth inning of Game 2. 

I'd really like the Yankees' chances if Aaron Boone got lost and didn't make the game. Joking aside and ignoring Boone's terrible overmanaging, everything sets up for New York in this Game 3 spot. 

Besides a sense of urgency and getting to play at home for the first time in the series, the Yankees hold a huge starting pitching edge with a matchup of Walker Buehler vs. Clark Schmidt. 

Buehler hasn't overcome his serious arm injury history. He was 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.55 WHIP during the regular season. He's 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in the postseason. Buehler is forced to pitch on the edges with his fastball no longer effective. Playing the Yankees is a bad match for him because New York hitters are patient and know how to take a walk. 

Schmidt had a fine season posting a 2.85 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. 

I don't expect Blake Treinen to pitch unless it's a save situation for LA. Treinen threw a total of 55 pitches during Friday and Saturday's games. 

The Dodgers have proven their superiority against the Mets during this NLCS building a 3-1 lead. LA has outscored New York, 27-2, in those victories.

Now the Dodgers are aiming for the kill shot with their best pitcher, veteran Jack Flaherty, on the mound opposing southpaw David Peterson.

LA is peaking at the perfect time going 5-1 in its last six games winning those games by an average of 5.1 runs.  

Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts are superstars and Flaherty is in excellent form. He threw seven innings of shutout ball against the Mets this past Sunday holding New York to two hits in a 9-0 victory.

The Dodgers have posted a .795 OPS against lefty pitching this season. More bad news for Peterson is he can't count on help from a gassed and vulnerable Mets bullpen.

Getting out of New York was the best thing to happen to the Guardians. With their season on the verge of elimination, I see the Guardians winning this Game 3 with the scene shifting to Cleveland.

It was like the Guardians were psyched out playing at Yankee Stadium. They left 11 men on base and committed two errors, one on an infield pop-up, in a 6-3 Game 2 loss this past Tuesday. 

Being idle on Wednesday and now home at Progressive Field for Thursday's game, is huge for Cleveland. I doubt the fat-and-happy Yankees, up 2-0 in the series, can match the Guardians' intensity and home motivation. 

I rate Cleveland with the pitching edge, too, in a starting pitching matchup of Clarke Schmidt vs. savvy veteran Matthew Boyd. 

The 33-year-old Boyd had a 2.72 ERA in 40 innings. He's well-rested. Cleveland rates a bullpen edge, too, and it has its top relievers rested. Emmanuel Clase led American League relief pitchers in saves with 47. 

It says a lot about how thin the Dodgers' starting pitching is that Walker Buehler draws another playoff start. He was hammered by the Padres in Game 3 of LA's earlier playoff series giving up six runs on seven hits in five innings.

This result isn't surprising since Buehler isn't close to being the dominant pitcher he was following two elbow surgeries and a hip injury. Buehler had a 5.38 ERA and 1.55 WHIP during the regular season. His road ERA was even worse at 6.88.

This is a stark contrast to how well Mets starter Luis Severino has pitched at home. Severino has a 2.96 ERA at Citi Field this season.

The Dodgers' bullpen brings no fear to the Mets, who are averaging 5.5 runs at home in the postseason.

Jazz Chisholm is a great talent. But he might not be the smartest player around. He said the Royals got lucky after Kansas City beat the Yankees this past Monday night to even this playoff series at 1-1.

Just added motivation for the Royals, who are playing in their first postseason home game since 2015.

I like the Royals at this price being home and in a pitching matchup of Clarke Schmidt vs. Seth Lugo.

Schmidt will be making his first playoff appearance of the season. He does not have a good postseason track record with an 0-2 record and 11.75 ERA in three appearances during the 2022 playoffs. The Royals are better offensively when playing at home.

Lugo had an All-Star season. He has a 1.42 ERA in four playoff appearances spanning 6 1/3 innings. Lugo was 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA during the regular season. He stymied the Yankees when he faced them on Sept. 10 pitching seven scoreless innings giving up just three hits with 10 strikeouts. Aaron Judge and Chisholm are a combined 1-for-19 against Lugo.

This comes down to not trusting Aaron Nola on the road, nor having faith in the Phillies bullpen, which ranks 23rd in ERA since July 1.

Nola has a 3.79 road ERA compared to 3.29 at home this season. This is similar to his career mark of a 4.21 away ERA compared to 3.21 ERA at home. Nola can't expect to get bailed out by a Phillies bullpen that has surrendered 12 earned runs in six innings during this series.

The Mets are averaging 5.4 runs in their five playoff games.

New York is pitching Sean Manaea. The Mets are 15-4 in Manaea's last 19 starts.

The Dodgers' 52-29 home record is the second-best in baseball. LA is averaging 5.2 runs per game, which ranked No. 2 and is the highest of any of the remaining playoff teams.

The pitching matchup is Dylan Cease vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Dodgers have another edge here.

Cease racks up a lot of strikeouts. But he has a 3.66 ERA in his last nine starts and a 3.83 road ERA on the year. 

Yamamoto has had four starts to get in shape since returning from the injured list. He has a 2.92 ERA on the season. 

After playing 27 innings on opposite coasts in slightly more than 24 hours, the Braves have run out of gas. They didn't have anything in a 4-0 loss to the Padres on Tuesday in Game 1 of their NL Wild Card Series.

AJ Smith-Shawver, Atlanta's starting pitcher on Tuesday, didn't find out he was going to start until Tuesday morning. The Braves are without Chris Sale, who is out with back spasms. That can't do much for their morale and confidence.

The pitching matchup for today's Game 2 is lefty Max Fried vs. Joe Musgrove.  

Fried has not been good in the playoffs. He has a 2-4 record and 4.57 ERA in 19 postseason appearances. San Diego went 27-19 against southpaw starters.

Musgrove is in great form. He has a 0.98 ERA in his last three starts, surrendering only two earned runs in 18 1/3 innings with a 23-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span.

I hold a lot of respect for Corbin Burnes and the Orioles.

But I'm not going to turn down Cole Ragans at this underdog price. Ragans averages 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings, which is best in the American League. He has a 2.87 road ERA.

Baltimore went just 5-5 in Burnes' last 10 starts. Burnes had a mediocre 4.04 ERA during this home stretch.

The Orioles' bullpen hasn't been reliable either. During the last three months, the Orioles' bullpen has had the fifth-highest ERA.

If there ever was a situation to back Oakland this is it. It's the final game for the A's in the Oakland Coliseum where they have played since 1968. They are going to be playing in Sacramento for the next three years before moving to Las Vegas.

The game is a sell-out. It will be emotional. The A's have to have incentive. The Rangers certainly don't. The defending champions are playing the string out in what has been a highly-disappointing season. Texas is 6-9 in its last 15 games. The Rangers are giving up an average of 5.4 runs in their last five games.

The pitching matchup pits a pair of rookies - Kumar Rocker for the Rangers and J.T. Ginn, who has a 3.20 home ERA. Rocker has thrown just seven innings in the big leagues.

The A's hold a bullpen edge. The Rangers have the fifth-highest bullpen ERA in baseball.

Huge game here and the Braves have the edge being home with a pitching matchup of Luis Severino vs. Spencer Schwellenbach. That's the way the oddsmaker sees it and that's the way I see it, too. 

Severino has been solid for the Mets. However, he has a high road ERA of 4.80 and a bad history against the Braves. Severino has pitched 50 1/3 innings lifetime against the Mets and his ERA is 6.62. 

The Braves have several injuries, but they did get back Ozzie Albies. 

Schwellenbach has a 3.18 ERA this month. He held the Reds to one run in six innings during his past start. Schwellenbach faced the Mets once - and pitched seven scoreless innings against them. 

The Mets could be without Francisco Lindor, who is questionable with a back injury. Lindor has the highest batting average among Mets regulars and is second on the team in homers and RBI's. 

The Astros certainly won't lack incentive after losing to the Angels in blown-save fashion on Sunday and with a chance to clinch the AL West with a victory in this series.

Seattle will be motivated, too, being two games behind for a wild-card spot. The Mariners trail the Astros by five games in the AL West.

But I don't trust the Mariners on the road where they are 34-44 and I prefer Hunter Brown against Bryce Miller. I also like the Astros' bullpen better.

Miller is one of those Seattle pitchers who pitches much better at Seattle's pitcher-friendly park. He has 4.44 road ERA.

Brown is finishing the season strong giving up two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. The Mariners are batting just .223, second-lowest in the majors.

I'm surprised a team as good as the Phillies are still screwing around with Taijuan Walker in their rotation. Walker is cooked. He's 3-6 with a 6.29 ERA and 1.63 WHIP this season. Walker has been even worse on the road with a 7.03 ERA and at night where his ERA is 7.29.

The hot Mets have won 15 of their last 19 games. They are going with Luis Severino on the mound. He's been solid with a 3.77 ERA and 1.23 WHIP this year.

The Phillies are averaging just 2.5 runs in their last four games.

The Yankees smacked the Mariners, 11-2, in Seattle last night. I don't expect them to win tonight, though, in a pitching matchup of lefty Nester Cortes vs. Bryce Miller.

Cortes is 9-10 with a 3.90 ERA. That ERA climbs to 4.81 on the road. He's in danger of losing his spot in the Yankees' starting rotation. 

Miller is 11-8 with a 3.12 ERA. He's an excellent fit in Seattle's pitcher-friendly stadium with a 6-3 record and 1.99 ERA. Miller has allowed only seven earned runs during his last seven starts spanning 40 2/3 innings. He has 45 strikeouts during this time frame. Miller has given up one earned run with 11 strikeouts during his last two starts combined. 

Seattle is very strong at home with a 45-31 record at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners don't have a high batting average against southpaws, but they are 22-19 against lefty starters.

Walker Buehler isn't close to being the star pitcher he was after a second Tommy John elbow surgery. He has a big name, but he's been horrible with a 5.64 ERA. His road ERA is a scary 7.77. The Dodgers have so many starting pitching injuries that they're forced to keep throwing Buehler out there hoping against hope for the best. But it hasn't happened yet. The Dodgers' bullpen has had a below average ERA since July.

The Braves are swinging hot bats scoring 29 runs in their last four games.

Atlanta is pitching Charlie Morton. He is 40 and past his prime. But Morton remains dependable especially pitching at home where he has a respectable 3.69 ERA. His ERA in his past three starts is 3.12. The Braves' bullpen has a top-10 ERA since July.

The price isn't too high to come back on the Mets after they lost to the Blue Jays on Tuesday. Even with that loss, the Mets still are 10-2 in their last dozen games.

The Mets have a hot Sean Manaea going, too. New York is 12-2 in Manaea's last 14 starts, including 5-0 in his past five starts.

Bowden Francis has been pitching great for the Blue Jays. But I don't see the rookie keeping it up going by his recent metrics. Toronto's bullpen can't be trusted either.

The Mariners are extremely tough at home as evidenced by a 41-28 record. George Kirby is Seattle's best pitcher - when he pitches in Seattle. That's the case here. Kirby, who has masterful control, has a 2.94 home ERA.

The Padres have a losing record in their last 11 games. They are starting Yu Darvish, who is trying to work his way back from a groin strain suffered in late May. This is only his second start since May 29. Darvish allowed three runs in 2 2/3 innings against the Tigers in his first start since then last Wednesday.

Darvish also wasn't sharp in his only minor league rehab appearance giving up six runs in 3 1/3 innings against the Reds minor leaguers. Darvish is 38 so his comeback has not been easy.

Offense has been a problem for Seattle. But if you discount a 2-0 loss to the Cardinals, the Mariners are swinging hot bats averaging 9.5 runs in their last four games.

Can the Reds pull off a three-game sweep of the Astros? 

I don't see it happening and I'll lay a mid-range price to get Hunter Brown in this spot. 

The prideful Astros have lost the first two games of this series, including 12-5 on Wednesday night.

Brown has been the Astros' most consistent pitcher during the past couple of months. He's given up two earned runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts. Brown has a 0.92 ERA in his last three starts. The Astros have a rested Josh Hader if needed to close this game out. 

Down three injured starting pitchers, the Reds called up perhaps their top pitching prospect, Rhett Lowder, last week. This will be the right-hander's second big league start. He went four innings against the Brewers last Friday in a 14-0 loss. Lowder got out of frequent jams allowing one run in his four innings, but his command and control were shaky. He walked four and threw just 47 of 77 pitches for strikes. 

The Astros are 57-44 against righty starters. They also have the second-highest batting average in the majors vs. righties. 

If you're not up on Osvaldo Bido you should be. Bido has been an underdog in each of his last four starts. The A's have won each of those games in large part because of Bido's tremendous pitching. Bido has a 1.17 ERA during his past four starts.

Now, once again, Bido is an underdog. This time at home to the Mariners and Logan Gilbert.

I'm not turning down this opportunity to ride the Bido's plus-price train.

Gilbert has a losing record on the season at 7-10. So do the Mariners when playing on the road where they are 28-40. Gilbert is a T-Mobile Park pitcher with a 2.35 home ERA. That ERA rises to 3.81 on the road. Gilbert also has a 4.76 ERA in his past three starts.

Oakland has shown an underrated resilience going 17-5 the past 22 times following a loss. They are averaging 5.8 runs in their last eight games.

The Mariners have scored 4 or fewer runs in eight of their last 12 games. They have the lowest team batting average in the majors, while also ranking 29th in OPS and 26th in runs.

The Orioles have the second-best record in the American League at 77-58. The Rockies are trying to not lose 100 games with a 50-85 record.

Baltimore is the far superior hitting team and has a hot pitcher going. Colorado has Austin Gomber on the mound.

So, yeah, I'll easily lay this road price.

Orioles starter Albert Suarez has a 3.18 ERA in 26 appearances this year. He's allowed only two runs in his last four outings spanning 23 1/3 innings. His August ERA is 1.80.

Gomber is 4-9 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. I don't see him and a Colorado bullpen that has the highest ERA by a wide margin at 5.63 handling an Orioles offense that ranks No. 2 in homers and is third in runs.

Veteran lefty Sean Manaea has done a steady job for the Mets. But I don't like his chances against the Diamondbacks.

Arizona is averaging 7.4 runs in its last seven games. The Diamondbacks have scored at least four runs in 17 of their last 20 games. They have the highest batting average against lefties in the majors at .279 and rank second in on-base percentage vs. southpaws.

Veteran lefty Eduardo Rodriguez is slated to go for Arizona. He's been getting the rust off following a lengthy injury absence. He held the Marlins to one run in 5 1/3 innings during his last start a week ago.

Arizona is 11 games above .500 when playing at home.

Mitch Keller can be either very good, or very bad. Cubs starter Jameson Taillon is just plain bad. So I'm riding with the Pirates.

Keller is off a brilliant road performance against the Rangers this past Tuesday. He pitched seven scoreless innings giving up only three hits with no walks and nine strikeouts. Keller has been at his best at home where he has a 2.58 ERA. Pittsburgh is 7-1 in Keller's past eight home starts.

Tailon has a 6.84 ERA in his last five starts. He's permitted at least four earned runs in four of those five starts. He's been even worse in his past three starts with a 7.31 ERA.

My checkmark goes to the Pirates' bullpen, too. Pittsburgh has the lowest ERA at 1.62 during the past two weeks.

The Cubs are nothing special. They are below .500 and have played easy competition recently with their last nine games coming against the Marlins, Tigers and Blue Jays.

I want the Mariners' going for me at home in the debut of their new manager, Dan Wilson.

Seattle is 1-8 in its last nine games. But those games were all on the road. Now the Mariners are back home with a day to get acclimated after being idle on Thursday.

The Mariners are 37-26 at home. They've won their last four home games. The Giants are 27-36 on the road.

Seattle has Luis Castillo pitching. He's been tremendous when pitching in Seattle with a 2.85 home ERA. That ERA drops to 2.01 against National League opponents. Castillo hasn't given up more than three runs in a home game since the start of April.

Opposing Castillo is rookie Hayden Birdsong, who has a 5.01 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in nine big league starts. Birdsong has surrendered 12 earned runs, including four homers, in two starts this month spanning just 6 1/3 innings.

Paul Skenes has a 3.13 ERA in his last five starts after compiling a 1.90 ERA during his first 11 big league starts. His fastball has ticked down a little. But Skenes is still a dominant pitcher. Opponents are batting .198 against him. He has a 121-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Only five teams strikeout more than the Reds.

I remain fully confident in Skenes.

Pittsburgh is average against lefty pitching. That's enough for the Pirates' offense to do the job against southpaw Nick Lodolo. He's faded badly after returning from an injured list stint last month. Lodolo has a 7.30 ERA and 1.46 WHIP during his last eight starts spanning 40 2/3 innings.

The oddsmaker opened this game higher. So I'm glad to get a discount with the lay price going down.

Cole Ragans is one of the best pitchers in the American League. He also ranks sixth in the majors in strikeouts.

It's a big pitching mismatch with Ragans facing Louie Varland, who was so bad earlier in the year he was sent down to the minors. Varland, who is 0-4 with a 6.46 ERA, only is back up because the Twins are down two starters in their rotation with Joe Ryan and Chris Paddack out.

The Twins remain without star shortstop Carlos Correia and center fielder Byron Buxton is questionable with a hip injury that kept him out of Tuesday's game.

I'm not buying Seth Lugo and the Royals as an underdog against the beat-up Twins, who are projected to give Zebby Matthews his first big-league start here.

Lugo is having his finest season going 13-6 with a 2.72 ERA. He's been outstanding on the road with an 8-2 record and 2.37 ERA during his past dozen away starts. 

The Twins already are without Carlos Correia and could be minus Byron Buxton, who suffered a hip injury last night. Minnesota has scored 3 or fewer runs in five of its last eight games.

Matthews struggled in four Triple-A starts with a 5.68 ERA before getting the call-up due to injuries to Joe Ryan and Chris Paddack. 

T-Mobile Park in Seattle is not a very good hitting park. The Mets can attest to that firsthand. New York has yet to score during the first two games of this series.

Now the Mets draw another tough Seattle starter, Luis Castillo. He's one of the best pitchers in the American League. Castillo has a 3.00 ERA in his past three starts. He's tougher when he pitches in Seattle, too, with a 2.95 home ERA.

Opposing Castillo is Luis Severino, who hasn't been able to regain his pre-injury form. Severino had a 6.65 ERA two seasons ago and his ERA this year is 4.06.

Severino is not in good form. He's surrendered 11 earned runs on 14 hits, including three homers, during his past two starts spanning eight innings.

The Cardinals hold a losing record in their last eight games. The Royals are 7-3 in their last 10 games, averaging 6.4 runs during this time frame.

The Royals are home where they are 37-24.

Kansas City has the starting pitching edge with Michael Lorenzen, who has a 3.69 ERA. He's allowed two earned runs in his last two starts.

The Cardinals are pitching Miles Mikolas, who has a 5.12 ERA. The soft-tossing Mikolas has permitted 15 earned runs in his past four starts spanning 21 1/3 innings. He's surrendered five homers in this time frame.

I'm not turning down Taj Bradley as an underdog.

Bradley wasn't sharp in his last start giving up four runs in five innings to the Marlins. Prior to that, however, there wasn't a better pitcher in the American League. Bradley had given up two earned runs or fewer during his previous nine starts, holding foes to one run or fewer in eight those outings. 

The Cardinals have never faced Bradley. That's not to their advantage. Bradley is off a July where he went 3-1 with a 1.45 ERA in five starts. 

I like Cardinals starter Erick Fedde. But he's not in Bradley's class. Fedde is 7-5 with a 3.34 ERA. He made his St. Louis debut this past Friday against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. It did not go well for him. Fedde surrendered five earned runs in five innings, including two homers. 

The Orioles get all the major checkmarks here - offense, starting pitching and bullpen. The question comes to price. And I'm fine laying this mid-range number on Baltimore in a pitching matchup of Grayson Rodriguez vs Chris Bassitt.

Rodriguez isn't far away from ace status. He's 13-4 with a 3.86 ERA and 130 strikeouts in 116 2/3 innings. The Orioles bolstered their bullpen at the trade deadline while Toronto relief pitchers remain vulnerable.

Chris Bassitt is a mediocre 8-10 with a 4.02 ERA. Toronto is 2-8 in his last 10 starts. Bassitt has a 4.24 ERA at home.

The Orioles are third in runs, first in homers and fifth in batting average. Toronto is 24th in runs, 27th in homers and 18th in batting average.

The record shows the Twins to be 62-48. But they aren't nearly that good. They've feasted on four bad teams going 28-8 when playing the White Sox, A's, Angels and Tigers.

If you removed those 36 games, Minnesota would be 34-40 on the season, six games below .500.

The Cubs are four games below .500. They have won four of their last five games.

So I'm not buying the Twins opening as a road favorite against the Cubs in a pitching matchup of rookie David Festa against Kyle Hendrick.

Festa has pitched 19 1/3 innings. He has a 6.98 ERA. Festa has surrendered a whopping six homers in his 19 1/3 innings.

Hendricks is a tough sell, too, with a 6.86 ERA. But he's pitched better at Wrigley Field and he might avoid facing two of the Twins' four best hitters. Carlos Correa remains out and Byron Buxton is questionable.

I'm going to fade Aaron Civale as a road favorite. Civale is 2-7 with a 5.08 ERA. That ERA rises to 6.23 when he pitches on the road.

I like Nationals starter DJ Herz better.

Washington has a winning home record in its last 24 games. The Nationals took two of three from the Brewers last month when playing at Milwaukee.

The Pirates struggle at Chase Field. They are 2-10 in their last dozen games there against the Diamondbacks.

Now Pittsburgh goes against Brandon Pfaadt, one of the more underrated pitchers in the National League. Pfaadt has made three starts since the All-Star break spanning 17 1/3 innings. During this time frame, he's given up only one run and 11 hits. He has a 3.09 home ERA.

Marco Gonzales gets the start for the Pirates. The lefty is working his way into shape after coming back from injury. He's allowed three runs and 13 hits in his last 9 2/3 innings. He is several tiers below Pfaadt. The Diamondbacks rank in the top-nine against southpaws in several major hitting categories, including batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.

The good news for the Marlins is Edward Cabrera is back from having spent two months on the injured list. The bad news is Cabrera has been terrible since his return. He's made three starts this month and has a 7.71 ERA.

The Orioles have an elite offense ranking first in homers and second in runs and OPS.

The Marlins are just the opposite. They have the fewest homers and are second-to-last in runs and OPS.

So this is an excellent spot for Orioles' rookie Chayce McDermott to make his big league debut. McDermott is backed by rested closer Craig Kimbrel and rested set-up man Yennier Cano.

The Phillies have the best record in baseball. They have their ace, Zack Wheeler, going today in a bounce back spot after the Twins won the first game of this series, 7-2, last night.

The Twins are 11 games above .500. But they are not an elite team. That's been proven whenever they've played top opponents. Minnesota is 2-19 against the Orioles, Guardians, Dodgers, Yankees and Brewers. The Phillies certainly are in that class.

Minnesota has padded its record by going 20-7 against the White Sox, A's and Tigers.

Philadelphia is 63-47 and has the second-best run differential in the majors at plus 107 runs.

Wheeler is having another huge season going 10-4 with a 2.70 ERA. Twins starter Simeon Woods Richardson can't compare to him.
The Twins also are without their three leading hitters with Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis and Jose Miranda all sidelined.

Tuesday Free Play

Rockies plus $1.43 hosting Red Sox 

I cashed with the underdog Rockies on Monday and am coming back with them as big home underdogs again today as a free play.

Boston is going through a low period having gone 0-4 since All-Star break.

This is an action play for me as I don't care for Colorado starter Ty Blach, who is 3-5 with a 5.46 ERA. Boston starter Cooper Criswell is struggling, too, with a 1-3 record and 6.94 ERA in his last five starts. He's never pitched at Coors Field.

A major problem for the Red Sox is their bullpen. It's minus closer Kenley Jansen and setup man Chris Martin. Those are Boston's two best relief pitchers. The Red Sox relief staff is terrible without those two. That was proven in last night's Rockies', 9-8, 12-inning victory when Boston's bullpen couldn't protect leads in the 10th and 12th innings.

Colorado is 9-9 in its last 18 games. The Rockies are 23-28 at home compared to 14-36 on the road. The Rockies also are riding a streak of having homered in 10 consecutive games.

So I find value in taking the Rockies at this price, against a cold Red Sox team going with a struggling starter and messed-up bullpen.

Coming off a high-profile three-game road series against the Dodgers that culminated with a loss on national television last night, the Red Sox face a tough situational spot meeting the Rockies at Coors Field.

Nothing against Red Sox starter Tanner Houck, who has pitched well this season, but this game does not set up well for Boston. Houck has yet to experience Coors Field having never pitched against the Rockies during his five-year big league career.

Houck won't be able to count on Boston's two best relief pitchers. Closer Kenley Jansen won't pitch during this series and setup man Chris Martin is on the injured list.

The key question is are the Rockies good enough to take advantage of this spot and upset Boston? Yes. Their starter, Austin Gomber, has pitched well at Coors and Colorado's confidence is up after taking two of three at home from the Giants this past weekend. The Rockies held the Giants to three runs in each of the three games.

The Rockies are a respectable 8-9 in their last 17 games. They play much better at home. The Rockies are riding a streak of having homered in nine consecutive games. Gomber has a 3.54 ERA at home compared to 5.61 on the road.

A pair of young, promising lefties go here, Nick Lodolo for the Reds and MacKenzie Gore for the Nationals.

The oddsmaker had it wrong in opening Gore and the Nationals as the favorite.

Lodolo has had a couple of starts to get the rust off since coming back from injury. He is 4-1 with a 2.27 ERA when pitching on the road. The Nationals are 29th in slugging percentage against lefty pitching. They've failed to hit a single home run the past 15 games when going against a southpaw.

Gore has tailed off. His velocity has been down and it's shown in his last four starts. Here are Gore's numbers during his past starts: 15 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings on 19 hits and 12 walks.

The All-Star break came at a good time for the Dodgers as they had lost six of their last seven games with five of those defeats occurring on the road.
But now the Dodgers are home and refreshed. I see them getting back on track against the Red Sox.

Boston hasn't played in Southern California since mid-April. The Red Sox have been playing good ball, but they are not in the class of the Dodgers.
This is an action play for me, but I also like the pitching matchup for LA.

Nick Pivetta goes for Boston. He's 4-6 with a 4.18 ERA. His night ERA is 5.48.

Gavin Stone is slated to go for the Dodgers. He's 9-3 with a 3.26 ERA. The Dodgers are 9-1 in Stone's last 10 starts, including winning the past six.

No reason to overthink this one. The Phillies have the best record in baseball. They are healthy again and are 14 games better than the Pirates. The pitching matchup of Aaron Nola vs lefty Martin Perez is heavily in Philadelphia's favor, too.

So I'm fine laying this price.

Nola is having another consistent, strong season. He's 11-4 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He hasn't given up more than three earned runs during 10 of his last 11 starts.

Now look at journeyman Perez. He's 1-5 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.62 ratio. That ERA goes up even higher to 6.75 going by his past three starts. The Phillies rank in the top 8 in major hitting categories against lefties, including batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.

Strong teams have a history of coming out of the All-Star break in winning fashion. Favorites went 11-4 (73 percent) in the first game following break last season.

The Giants are a sound 27-22 at home. They have a strong pitching matchup edge here and they catch the Twins with Minnesota possibly missing three of its best hitters.

Carlos Correa is batting .308 and is Minnesota's home run and RBI leader. He didn't play Saturday because of a bruised heel. Jose Miranda leads the Twins in hitting at .325. He's missed the past two games due to a sore back. Byron Buxton is batting .285. He didn't play yesterday either after crashing into the wall on Friday trying to make a catch.

Since this is the final day before the four-day All-Star break, it's likely all three of these key offensive cogs sit out. All three are right-handed batters, too.

That's an extra plus for lefty Blake Snell. The reigning National League Cy Young Award winner has made just two starts since early June because of a sore groin. Snell hadn't looked good this year - until his last start. That came against the Blue Jays at home this past Tuesday. Snell finally looked like his Cy Young Award-winning self, throwing five innings of shutout ball holding Toronto to only one hit.

Opposing Snell is Chris Paddack, who has a 5.18 ERA. Paddack's already bad ERA shoots up to 7.50 if you go by his past three starts. Paddack's road ERA this season is 7.25.

The Brewers are just 13-12 against lefty starters this season. They are facing promising rookie southpaw Mitchell Parker in this day game. Parker has a 2.61 day time ERA.

But that's not the main reason I'm backing the underdog Nationals.

The Brewers are starting washed-up Dallas Keuchel. That's the major part of this handicap is a fade on Keuchel, who has a 4.61 ERA. His ERA was 5.97 last season. Two years ago, Keuchel pitched for three teams - Diamondbacks, Rangers and White Sox. His ERA for those teams was 9.64, 12.60 and 7.88. He should not be favored.

The price is low enough to back the superior Braves against the cold-hitting Padres.

While Atlanta has scored 5 or more runs in five of its last six games, San Diego has managed just four runs in its last three games.

The Padres have lost four in a row.

I don't see Randy Vasquz, 2-4 with a 4.66 ERA, stopping the losing streak.

But I do see a buy sign on Braves rookie Spencer Schwellenbach, who held the Phillies to one run in six innings with six strikeouts and no walks this past Saturday. The Padres have never faced Schwellenbach, giving him the element of surprise.

The 44-49 Cubs, with their below average offense and defense, are trying to do what hasn't been done this season: Beat the 57-35 Orioles three straight in Baltimore. The Orioles haven't lost three in a row at Camden Yards all season.

The Cubs, though, have captured the first two games of this three-game series. Chicago's record is 4-10-1 in road series.

Anything is possible in baseball, but I don't see a Cubs sweep. The price is low enough to back Baltimore big in a pitching matchup of lefty Justin Steele against Albert Suarez.

Steele is off his first complete game. So he's in unknown territory for this start. He faces a potent Baltimore lineup that ranks first in the majors in several categories, including runs and homers. The Orioles rank No. 2 in slugging percentage and No. 3 in OPS against lefties.

Suarez is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball. He's 5-2 with a 2.48 ERA. Suarez has a 1.50 home ERA. He's allowed only one run during his last three home starts against the Rangers, Braves and Rays.

The Giants finally get to step down in class taking on the Blue Jays after having just played nine games against the Guardians, Braves and Dodgers.

San Francisco has the superior offense. The underachieving Blue Jays rank 26th in runs and 28th in home runs.

The Blue Jays are pitching Yusei Kikuchi, who has a 4.12 ERA, backed by a Toronto bullpen minus its two top relievers.

Fresh off the injured list and supposedly healthy, Blake Snell gets the call for the Giants. Snell's season numbers of a 9.51 ERA and 1.94 WHIP are due for much improvement as career-wise Snell has a 3.35 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Twice Snell has won the Cy Young Award, accomplishing in both the AL and NL.

Snell has a 2.74 lifetime ERA against the Blue Jays in 14 career starts.

Soft-tossing 35-year-old Miles Mikolas wasn't very good last year for the Cardinals with a 9-13 record and 4.78 ERA. He's worse this season with a 6-7 record and 5.19 ERA.

Mikolas isn't in good form either with an 8.27 ERA during his last three starts. Note this is a day game. Mikolas ERA in day games is 5.73.

I much prefer Washington's promising rookie southpaw Mitchell Parker. He's 5-4 with a 3.61 ERA. Parker has pitched his best at home where he's 3-0 with a 3.11 ERA. The Nationals have won four of Parker's five home starts.

Washington is averaging 7.6 runs during the first three games of this series.

The Cardinals are batting only .229 against lefty pitching. They rank second-to-last against lefties in batting and slugging percentage.

The Orioles have lost 24 fewer games than the A's, who have the second-worst record in the American League. But you wouldn't have guessed that judging by yesterday's game where the A's walloped the Orioles, 19-8.

Look for Baltimore to avenge that embarrassment today. The Orioles have just the pitcher to do that - Grayson Rodriguez. He's 10-3 with a 3.45 ERA. Rodriguez has won five of his last six road starts, including defeating the Mariners, Rays and Astros. Oh, yes, Rodriguez also is 4-0 with a 2.03 ERA in day games this season. 

The Orioles are familiar with A's rookie starter Mitch Spence. They got a look at him in an April 26 game. Spence is going to have problems handling a Baltimore attack that ranks No. 1 in runs, homers and OPS.

The Rays have won their last five series. But if they want to keep that series streak going they need to win this game after losing, 3-0, to the Rangers on Friday night.

I see the Rays accomplishing the task in a pitching matchup of Taj Bradley against southpaw Andrew Heaney.

Bradley has a high ceiling and is in tremendous form with a 1.24 ERA in his last five starts spanning 29 innings. He has 40 strikeouts during this time frame.

Texas has a below average offense. The Rangers are averaging 2.6 runs during their last three games. They are eight games below .500

The Rays are 14-7 vs lefty starters and going against a mediocre one in Heaney, who is 0-5 lifetime against Tampa Bay.

Paul Skenes has a 2.06 ERA. I haven't heard of a Pirates starter with an ERA that low since Vic Willis and he pitched at the turn of the century - the 20th century.

Unlike many other heralded rookies, Skenes is more than living up to the hype. He just might be the best pitcher in baseball.

Skenes has given up only three earned runs during his last four starts spanning 25 1/3 innings. He has 32 strikeouts during this span and 70 strikeouts in 52 2/3 innings.

The Pirates are 6-3 in Skenes' starts. The Mets just were held to zero runs and one hit by the Nationals on Thursday.

The Mets have the highest payroll in baseball. The Pirates have the second-lowest payroll in the majors. Despite that, the Pirates have just one fewer victory than the Mets.

Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets. He's having a good bounce back season, but is not the star pitcher he was with the Yankees. Severino's road ERA is 4.19 and he has a 4.66 ERA in his last three starts. The beleaguered Mets' bullpen remains without suspended closer Edwin Diaz.

The Astros are coming on having won 10 of their last 12 games. The Blue Jays are an underachieving seven games below .500, with an overrated offense, their two best relievers on the injured list and a bad manager.

I like Houston to bounce back here in a big way after losing by one run to Toronto on Tuesday.

Not only are the Astros the superior and hotter team, but they have a major pitching edge in a matchup of Ronel Blanco against lefty Yusei Kikuchi.

Blanco is having a big year with an 8-3 record and 2.49 ERA. He is 5-1 on the road with a 2.36 ERA. The Blue Jays faced Blanco the first time the teams met back at the beginning of April. Blanco threw a no-hitter against the Blue Jays in a 10-0 victory.

Kikuchi is in terrible form. He is 0-3 with a 10.64 ERA during his past three starts. The Astros have the sixth-highest batting average against southpaw pitchers.

Short price here to get promising rookie pitcher Jared Jones against Miles Mikolas.

Jones has been brilliant at home for the Pirates going 3-2 with a 2.20 ERA at PNC Park. I trust Jones to tame the Cardinals while the Pirates do damage against Mikolas, who is in terrible form.

Mikolas has gone against the Reds and Giants in his last two starts. He's allowed 13 earned runs on 18 hits and three walks spanning 10 1/3 innings during these past two starts. Mikolas has a losing record and a fat 5.32 ERA.

You have to go back to 2019 to find the last time Patrick Corbin had a winning season. Since then, Corbin is 28-64. The lefty's ERA is 5.46. Last year, Corbin's ERA was 5.20. The year before that it was 6.31 and it was 5.82 in 2021.

I rarely lay a price this large, but I'm going to do it here in order to fade Corbin.

The Rays are 13-7 against southpaw starters. They are pitching Taj Bradley, who is in his best form of the year giving up just four earned runs during his last four starts spanning 23 1/3 innings. Bradley has 29 strikeouts during this time frame. Bradley has faced three strong opponents during his last four games going against the Mariners, Twins and Orioles.

Bradley and a deep Tampa Bay bullpen can handle the Nationals while the Rays should do plenty of damage against Corbin.

Look for Reds southpaw Andrew Abbott to give the Cardinals fits. Abbott is 6-6 with a 3.40 ERA. Those aren't bad numbers, but the Cardinals rank in the bottom-three against lefty pitching in many major offensive categories, including batting, slugging percentage and OPS. They are hitting only .215 vs lefty throwers.

The Cardinals are going with Miles Mikolas, who defies mediocrity. He's 6-6 with a 4.68 ERA, which climbs to 4.81 when he pitches at home.

St. Louis is dealing with a fatigue factor after splitting a doubleheader with the Braves on Wednesday.

We know who Cardinals starter Kyle Gibson is. A mediocre journeyman, who has pitched for five different teams since 2019.

But just who is Reynaldo Lopez? This year Lopez has pitched like a superstar with a 5-2 record and 1.57 ERA. Atlanta is 7-3 in his starts this season. Lopez has been brilliant in his last four starts - all Braves victories - giving up three earned runs during this time spanning 23 innings with 29 strikeouts.

These pitchers were scheduled to face each other on Tuesday, but the game was postponed until today as part of a double-header. This is the first game of that doubleheader. So the game has to be re-bet.

The rainout on Tuesday has not changed what I think about this game.

St. Louis has been playing well, although its previous six series all were against below .500 opponents. But the Braves are clearly the superior team with a better offense, a bullpen that has the third-lowest ERA and a defense that has committed the fewest errors in baseball.

The Braves should be able to reach Gibson, who has a 4.28 home ERA, and a St. Louis bullpen carrying a high fatigue rating.

The Cardinals are playing better, winning eight of their past 11 games. They've also played six opponents with losing records during their last six series.

That won't be the case here against the 43-32 Braves. Atlanta is without superstar Ronald Acuna. But the Cardinals are likely to be without Wilson Contreras and possibly Nolan Arenado, who is dealing with left forearm nerve irritation.

The Braves are 8-2 in their last 10 games. They impressively took two of three road games from the Yankees, who have the second-best record in baseball.

Atlanta rookie starter Spencer Schwellenbach is in better form than St. Louis veteran starter Lance Lynn. Schwellenbach has allowed three runs on seven hits during his last two starts spanning 12 innings. St. Louis has never faced him giving Schwellenbach a surprise element.

I prefer a young promising Atlanta pitcher instead of Lynn, who has been nothing more than a glorified innings eater for the past several years. Lynn has a losing record this season with a 4.08 ERA. He has a 7.90 ERA in his last three starts. Lynn gave up five earned runs on 10 hits in 5 1/3 innings against the weak-hitting Marlins during his previous start six days ago. Lifetime against the Braves, Lynn has a 4.34 ERA in eight starts.

Seattle is a much better team than Miami and the Mariners hold a strong pitching edge today with a matchup of Bryce Miller vs Kyle Tyler.

Miller is a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter with a 3.46 ERA. He likely won't have to deal with Jazz Chisholm, the Marlins' RBI and stolen base leader. Chisholm is bothered by a right biceps injury and had to be pulled from Saturday's game.

The Marlins lost that game, 9-0, to the Mariners. Miami starter Braxton Garrett was scratched. The Marlins are already down six starters and their bullpen is taxed. So Tyler may have to pitch longer than expected.

Southpaw Garrett Crochet has been amazing for the White Sox with a 3.16 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 116 strikeouts, which is No. 2 in the majors.

I certainly have nothing against Crochet, although I'm leery that he can continue at a pace this good. But I am going to fade the White Sox at this low of a lay price with a hot Hunter Brown and a prideful Astros team that is off an embarrassing, 2-0, loss to the White Sox and rookie Jonathan Cannon.

Houston still is trying to turn its season around. But no team is worse than the White Sox, who are 20-54.

Only once since mid-May have the White Sox won two straight games.

The Astros rank in the top-12 in the major offensive categories against lefty pitching. They expect to get back slugger Yordan Alvarez after he missed Tuesday's game because of a family matter. Alvarez is batting .365 this month with 15 RBI's.

Crochet is coming off his second-highest pitch count of the season. The White Sox have to be careful with him since he's had Tommy John surgery, which caused him to miss the entire 2022 season. Only once this season has Crochet gone more than six innings. The White Sox bullpen ranks 27th in ERA.

Brown is riding a 13-inning scoreless streak. The Astros have a rested Josh Hader to close if needed. The White Sox rank last in runs, batting average and OPS.

When it comes to the Pirates, I won't go against Paul Skenes and I have great respect for the backend of their bullpen. Other than that, though, the Pirates are fair game. I'm going against them today in a pitching matchup of Nick Lodolo vs Bailey Falter.

The Reds are 8-2 in Lodolo's starts this season. Lodolo has a 2.93 ERA. He's been even better on the road with a 2.55 ERA. Lodolo has surrendered just six earned runs during his past four starts spanning 23 1/3 innings.

Falter is not in good form giving up eight runs and 16 hits in his past two starts spanning eight innings. Pittsburgh is 3-7 in Falter's starts this year.

Falter has a career 7.79 ERA against the Reds in five games, including three starts.

DJ Herz has one thing going for him as he faces the Marlins at home in his third big league start. Herz is a lefty.

The Marlins are a terrible team - especially when facing southpaws. Miami is 3-21 against lefty starters this season.

I expect Herz and a rested Washington bullpen to handle the Marlins. Miami is batting .223 vs lefties. The Marlins are second-to-last in the league in runs, homers and OPS.

Oh, yes, the Marlins also are averaging a puny 2.2 runs during their past 11 games.

David Peterson will be making his third start for the Mets this season. He's 1-0 with a 3.09 ERA. More importantly, he's a lefty. The Marlins have the second-worst record in baseball. A big reason for that is their 3-19 mark against southpaws. The Marlins are last in slugging percentage and second-to-last in on-base percentage when facing left-handed pitching.

Expect the Mets to bounce back from a 4-2 Tuesday loss to Miami. The Mets had a letdown against the Marlins after defeating the Phillies this past Sunday in London. New York was idle this past Monday.

Peterson has a 2.06 career ERA against the Marlins in seven games, including six starts. Miami starter Braxton Garrett has a 5.81 ERA. He's 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA in eight career games against the Mets, including seven starts.

Luis Gil has been coming through in a big way for the Yankees. Gil has been fantastic with an 8-1 record and 1.82 ERA. But Gil is trumped here by Tyler Glasnow.

Glasnow is in the argument for best pitcher in baseball. He has 2.93 ERA and leads the majors in strikeouts. Glasnow has faced the Yankees five times since 2020. He's 4-0 against them with a 1.45 ERA.

Both offenses are very strong. But the Dodgers rate an offensive edge, especially with Juan Soto likely not to be in the starting lineup because of a forearm injury.