Jazz Chisholm is a great talent. But he might not be the smartest player around. He said the Royals got lucky after Kansas City beat the Yankees this past Monday night to even this playoff series at 1-1.

Just added motivation for the Royals, who are playing in their first postseason home game since 2015.

I like the Royals at this price being home and in a pitching matchup of Clarke Schmidt vs. Seth Lugo.

Schmidt will be making his first playoff appearance of the season. He does not have a good postseason track record with an 0-2 record and 11.75 ERA in three appearances during the 2022 playoffs. The Royals are better offensively when playing at home.

Lugo had an All-Star season. He has a 1.42 ERA in four playoff appearances spanning 6 1/3 innings. Lugo was 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA during the regular season. He stymied the Yankees when he faced them on Sept. 10 pitching seven scoreless innings giving up just three hits with 10 strikeouts. Aaron Judge and Chisholm are a combined 1-for-19 against Lugo.

This comes down to not trusting Aaron Nola on the road, nor having faith in the Phillies bullpen, which ranks 23rd in ERA since July 1.

Nola has a 3.79 road ERA compared to 3.29 at home this season. This is similar to his career mark of a 4.21 away ERA compared to 3.21 ERA at home. Nola can't expect to get bailed out by a Phillies bullpen that has surrendered 12 earned runs in six innings during this series.

The Mets are averaging 5.4 runs in their five playoff games.

New York is pitching Sean Manaea. The Mets are 15-4 in Manaea's last 19 starts.

The Dodgers' 52-29 home record is the second-best in baseball. LA is averaging 5.2 runs per game, which ranked No. 2 and is the highest of any of the remaining playoff teams.

The pitching matchup is Dylan Cease vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Dodgers have another edge here.

Cease racks up a lot of strikeouts. But he has a 3.66 ERA in his last nine starts and a 3.83 road ERA on the year. 

Yamamoto has had four starts to get in shape since returning from the injured list. He has a 2.92 ERA on the season. 

After playing 27 innings on opposite coasts in slightly more than 24 hours, the Braves have run out of gas. They didn't have anything in a 4-0 loss to the Padres on Tuesday in Game 1 of their NL Wild Card Series.

AJ Smith-Shawver, Atlanta's starting pitcher on Tuesday, didn't find out he was going to start until Tuesday morning. The Braves are without Chris Sale, who is out with back spasms. That can't do much for their morale and confidence.

The pitching matchup for today's Game 2 is lefty Max Fried vs. Joe Musgrove.  

Fried has not been good in the playoffs. He has a 2-4 record and 4.57 ERA in 19 postseason appearances. San Diego went 27-19 against southpaw starters.

Musgrove is in great form. He has a 0.98 ERA in his last three starts, surrendering only two earned runs in 18 1/3 innings with a 23-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span.

I hold a lot of respect for Corbin Burnes and the Orioles.

But I'm not going to turn down Cole Ragans at this underdog price. Ragans averages 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings, which is best in the American League. He has a 2.87 road ERA.

Baltimore went just 5-5 in Burnes' last 10 starts. Burnes had a mediocre 4.04 ERA during this home stretch.

The Orioles' bullpen hasn't been reliable either. During the last three months, the Orioles' bullpen has had the fifth-highest ERA.

If there ever was a situation to back Oakland this is it. It's the final game for the A's in the Oakland Coliseum where they have played since 1968. They are going to be playing in Sacramento for the next three years before moving to Las Vegas.

The game is a sell-out. It will be emotional. The A's have to have incentive. The Rangers certainly don't. The defending champions are playing the string out in what has been a highly-disappointing season. Texas is 6-9 in its last 15 games. The Rangers are giving up an average of 5.4 runs in their last five games.

The pitching matchup pits a pair of rookies - Kumar Rocker for the Rangers and J.T. Ginn, who has a 3.20 home ERA. Rocker has thrown just seven innings in the big leagues.

The A's hold a bullpen edge. The Rangers have the fifth-highest bullpen ERA in baseball.

Huge game here and the Braves have the edge being home with a pitching matchup of Luis Severino vs. Spencer Schwellenbach. That's the way the oddsmaker sees it and that's the way I see it, too. 

Severino has been solid for the Mets. However, he has a high road ERA of 4.80 and a bad history against the Braves. Severino has pitched 50 1/3 innings lifetime against the Mets and his ERA is 6.62. 

The Braves have several injuries, but they did get back Ozzie Albies. 

Schwellenbach has a 3.18 ERA this month. He held the Reds to one run in six innings during his past start. Schwellenbach faced the Mets once - and pitched seven scoreless innings against them. 

The Mets could be without Francisco Lindor, who is questionable with a back injury. Lindor has the highest batting average among Mets regulars and is second on the team in homers and RBI's. 

The Astros certainly won't lack incentive after losing to the Angels in blown-save fashion on Sunday and with a chance to clinch the AL West with a victory in this series.

Seattle will be motivated, too, being two games behind for a wild-card spot. The Mariners trail the Astros by five games in the AL West.

But I don't trust the Mariners on the road where they are 34-44 and I prefer Hunter Brown against Bryce Miller. I also like the Astros' bullpen better.

Miller is one of those Seattle pitchers who pitches much better at Seattle's pitcher-friendly park. He has 4.44 road ERA.

Brown is finishing the season strong giving up two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. The Mariners are batting just .223, second-lowest in the majors.

I'm surprised a team as good as the Phillies are still screwing around with Taijuan Walker in their rotation. Walker is cooked. He's 3-6 with a 6.29 ERA and 1.63 WHIP this season. Walker has been even worse on the road with a 7.03 ERA and at night where his ERA is 7.29.

The hot Mets have won 15 of their last 19 games. They are going with Luis Severino on the mound. He's been solid with a 3.77 ERA and 1.23 WHIP this year.

The Phillies are averaging just 2.5 runs in their last four games.

The Yankees smacked the Mariners, 11-2, in Seattle last night. I don't expect them to win tonight, though, in a pitching matchup of lefty Nester Cortes vs. Bryce Miller.

Cortes is 9-10 with a 3.90 ERA. That ERA climbs to 4.81 on the road. He's in danger of losing his spot in the Yankees' starting rotation. 

Miller is 11-8 with a 3.12 ERA. He's an excellent fit in Seattle's pitcher-friendly stadium with a 6-3 record and 1.99 ERA. Miller has allowed only seven earned runs during his last seven starts spanning 40 2/3 innings. He has 45 strikeouts during this time frame. Miller has given up one earned run with 11 strikeouts during his last two starts combined. 

Seattle is very strong at home with a 45-31 record at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners don't have a high batting average against southpaws, but they are 22-19 against lefty starters.

Walker Buehler isn't close to being the star pitcher he was after a second Tommy John elbow surgery. He has a big name, but he's been horrible with a 5.64 ERA. His road ERA is a scary 7.77. The Dodgers have so many starting pitching injuries that they're forced to keep throwing Buehler out there hoping against hope for the best. But it hasn't happened yet. The Dodgers' bullpen has had a below average ERA since July.

The Braves are swinging hot bats scoring 29 runs in their last four games.

Atlanta is pitching Charlie Morton. He is 40 and past his prime. But Morton remains dependable especially pitching at home where he has a respectable 3.69 ERA. His ERA in his past three starts is 3.12. The Braves' bullpen has a top-10 ERA since July.

The price isn't too high to come back on the Mets after they lost to the Blue Jays on Tuesday. Even with that loss, the Mets still are 10-2 in their last dozen games.

The Mets have a hot Sean Manaea going, too. New York is 12-2 in Manaea's last 14 starts, including 5-0 in his past five starts.

Bowden Francis has been pitching great for the Blue Jays. But I don't see the rookie keeping it up going by his recent metrics. Toronto's bullpen can't be trusted either.

The Mariners are extremely tough at home as evidenced by a 41-28 record. George Kirby is Seattle's best pitcher - when he pitches in Seattle. That's the case here. Kirby, who has masterful control, has a 2.94 home ERA.

The Padres have a losing record in their last 11 games. They are starting Yu Darvish, who is trying to work his way back from a groin strain suffered in late May. This is only his second start since May 29. Darvish allowed three runs in 2 2/3 innings against the Tigers in his first start since then last Wednesday.

Darvish also wasn't sharp in his only minor league rehab appearance giving up six runs in 3 1/3 innings against the Reds minor leaguers. Darvish is 38 so his comeback has not been easy.

Offense has been a problem for Seattle. But if you discount a 2-0 loss to the Cardinals, the Mariners are swinging hot bats averaging 9.5 runs in their last four games.

Can the Reds pull off a three-game sweep of the Astros? 

I don't see it happening and I'll lay a mid-range price to get Hunter Brown in this spot. 

The prideful Astros have lost the first two games of this series, including 12-5 on Wednesday night.

Brown has been the Astros' most consistent pitcher during the past couple of months. He's given up two earned runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts. Brown has a 0.92 ERA in his last three starts. The Astros have a rested Josh Hader if needed to close this game out. 

Down three injured starting pitchers, the Reds called up perhaps their top pitching prospect, Rhett Lowder, last week. This will be the right-hander's second big league start. He went four innings against the Brewers last Friday in a 14-0 loss. Lowder got out of frequent jams allowing one run in his four innings, but his command and control were shaky. He walked four and threw just 47 of 77 pitches for strikes. 

The Astros are 57-44 against righty starters. They also have the second-highest batting average in the majors vs. righties. 

If you're not up on Osvaldo Bido you should be. Bido has been an underdog in each of his last four starts. The A's have won each of those games in large part because of Bido's tremendous pitching. Bido has a 1.17 ERA during his past four starts.

Now, once again, Bido is an underdog. This time at home to the Mariners and Logan Gilbert.

I'm not turning down this opportunity to ride the Bido's plus-price train.

Gilbert has a losing record on the season at 7-10. So do the Mariners when playing on the road where they are 28-40. Gilbert is a T-Mobile Park pitcher with a 2.35 home ERA. That ERA rises to 3.81 on the road. Gilbert also has a 4.76 ERA in his past three starts.

Oakland has shown an underrated resilience going 17-5 the past 22 times following a loss. They are averaging 5.8 runs in their last eight games.

The Mariners have scored 4 or fewer runs in eight of their last 12 games. They have the lowest team batting average in the majors, while also ranking 29th in OPS and 26th in runs.

The Orioles have the second-best record in the American League at 77-58. The Rockies are trying to not lose 100 games with a 50-85 record.

Baltimore is the far superior hitting team and has a hot pitcher going. Colorado has Austin Gomber on the mound.

So, yeah, I'll easily lay this road price.

Orioles starter Albert Suarez has a 3.18 ERA in 26 appearances this year. He's allowed only two runs in his last four outings spanning 23 1/3 innings. His August ERA is 1.80.

Gomber is 4-9 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. I don't see him and a Colorado bullpen that has the highest ERA by a wide margin at 5.63 handling an Orioles offense that ranks No. 2 in homers and is third in runs.

Veteran lefty Sean Manaea has done a steady job for the Mets. But I don't like his chances against the Diamondbacks.

Arizona is averaging 7.4 runs in its last seven games. The Diamondbacks have scored at least four runs in 17 of their last 20 games. They have the highest batting average against lefties in the majors at .279 and rank second in on-base percentage vs. southpaws.

Veteran lefty Eduardo Rodriguez is slated to go for Arizona. He's been getting the rust off following a lengthy injury absence. He held the Marlins to one run in 5 1/3 innings during his last start a week ago.

Arizona is 11 games above .500 when playing at home.

Mitch Keller can be either very good, or very bad. Cubs starter Jameson Taillon is just plain bad. So I'm riding with the Pirates.

Keller is off a brilliant road performance against the Rangers this past Tuesday. He pitched seven scoreless innings giving up only three hits with no walks and nine strikeouts. Keller has been at his best at home where he has a 2.58 ERA. Pittsburgh is 7-1 in Keller's past eight home starts.

Tailon has a 6.84 ERA in his last five starts. He's permitted at least four earned runs in four of those five starts. He's been even worse in his past three starts with a 7.31 ERA.

My checkmark goes to the Pirates' bullpen, too. Pittsburgh has the lowest ERA at 1.62 during the past two weeks.

The Cubs are nothing special. They are below .500 and have played easy competition recently with their last nine games coming against the Marlins, Tigers and Blue Jays.

I want the Mariners' going for me at home in the debut of their new manager, Dan Wilson.

Seattle is 1-8 in its last nine games. But those games were all on the road. Now the Mariners are back home with a day to get acclimated after being idle on Thursday.

The Mariners are 37-26 at home. They've won their last four home games. The Giants are 27-36 on the road.

Seattle has Luis Castillo pitching. He's been tremendous when pitching in Seattle with a 2.85 home ERA. That ERA drops to 2.01 against National League opponents. Castillo hasn't given up more than three runs in a home game since the start of April.

Opposing Castillo is rookie Hayden Birdsong, who has a 5.01 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in nine big league starts. Birdsong has surrendered 12 earned runs, including four homers, in two starts this month spanning just 6 1/3 innings.

Paul Skenes has a 3.13 ERA in his last five starts after compiling a 1.90 ERA during his first 11 big league starts. His fastball has ticked down a little. But Skenes is still a dominant pitcher. Opponents are batting .198 against him. He has a 121-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Only five teams strikeout more than the Reds.

I remain fully confident in Skenes.

Pittsburgh is average against lefty pitching. That's enough for the Pirates' offense to do the job against southpaw Nick Lodolo. He's faded badly after returning from an injured list stint last month. Lodolo has a 7.30 ERA and 1.46 WHIP during his last eight starts spanning 40 2/3 innings.

The oddsmaker opened this game higher. So I'm glad to get a discount with the lay price going down.

Cole Ragans is one of the best pitchers in the American League. He also ranks sixth in the majors in strikeouts.

It's a big pitching mismatch with Ragans facing Louie Varland, who was so bad earlier in the year he was sent down to the minors. Varland, who is 0-4 with a 6.46 ERA, only is back up because the Twins are down two starters in their rotation with Joe Ryan and Chris Paddack out.

The Twins remain without star shortstop Carlos Correia and center fielder Byron Buxton is questionable with a hip injury that kept him out of Tuesday's game.

I'm not buying Seth Lugo and the Royals as an underdog against the beat-up Twins, who are projected to give Zebby Matthews his first big-league start here.

Lugo is having his finest season going 13-6 with a 2.72 ERA. He's been outstanding on the road with an 8-2 record and 2.37 ERA during his past dozen away starts. 

The Twins already are without Carlos Correia and could be minus Byron Buxton, who suffered a hip injury last night. Minnesota has scored 3 or fewer runs in five of its last eight games.

Matthews struggled in four Triple-A starts with a 5.68 ERA before getting the call-up due to injuries to Joe Ryan and Chris Paddack. 

T-Mobile Park in Seattle is not a very good hitting park. The Mets can attest to that firsthand. New York has yet to score during the first two games of this series.

Now the Mets draw another tough Seattle starter, Luis Castillo. He's one of the best pitchers in the American League. Castillo has a 3.00 ERA in his past three starts. He's tougher when he pitches in Seattle, too, with a 2.95 home ERA.

Opposing Castillo is Luis Severino, who hasn't been able to regain his pre-injury form. Severino had a 6.65 ERA two seasons ago and his ERA this year is 4.06.

Severino is not in good form. He's surrendered 11 earned runs on 14 hits, including three homers, during his past two starts spanning eight innings.

The Cardinals hold a losing record in their last eight games. The Royals are 7-3 in their last 10 games, averaging 6.4 runs during this time frame.

The Royals are home where they are 37-24.

Kansas City has the starting pitching edge with Michael Lorenzen, who has a 3.69 ERA. He's allowed two earned runs in his last two starts.

The Cardinals are pitching Miles Mikolas, who has a 5.12 ERA. The soft-tossing Mikolas has permitted 15 earned runs in his past four starts spanning 21 1/3 innings. He's surrendered five homers in this time frame.

I'm not turning down Taj Bradley as an underdog.

Bradley wasn't sharp in his last start giving up four runs in five innings to the Marlins. Prior to that, however, there wasn't a better pitcher in the American League. Bradley had given up two earned runs or fewer during his previous nine starts, holding foes to one run or fewer in eight those outings. 

The Cardinals have never faced Bradley. That's not to their advantage. Bradley is off a July where he went 3-1 with a 1.45 ERA in five starts. 

I like Cardinals starter Erick Fedde. But he's not in Bradley's class. Fedde is 7-5 with a 3.34 ERA. He made his St. Louis debut this past Friday against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. It did not go well for him. Fedde surrendered five earned runs in five innings, including two homers. 

The Orioles get all the major checkmarks here - offense, starting pitching and bullpen. The question comes to price. And I'm fine laying this mid-range number on Baltimore in a pitching matchup of Grayson Rodriguez vs Chris Bassitt.

Rodriguez isn't far away from ace status. He's 13-4 with a 3.86 ERA and 130 strikeouts in 116 2/3 innings. The Orioles bolstered their bullpen at the trade deadline while Toronto relief pitchers remain vulnerable.

Chris Bassitt is a mediocre 8-10 with a 4.02 ERA. Toronto is 2-8 in his last 10 starts. Bassitt has a 4.24 ERA at home.

The Orioles are third in runs, first in homers and fifth in batting average. Toronto is 24th in runs, 27th in homers and 18th in batting average.

The record shows the Twins to be 62-48. But they aren't nearly that good. They've feasted on four bad teams going 28-8 when playing the White Sox, A's, Angels and Tigers.

If you removed those 36 games, Minnesota would be 34-40 on the season, six games below .500.

The Cubs are four games below .500. They have won four of their last five games.

So I'm not buying the Twins opening as a road favorite against the Cubs in a pitching matchup of rookie David Festa against Kyle Hendrick.

Festa has pitched 19 1/3 innings. He has a 6.98 ERA. Festa has surrendered a whopping six homers in his 19 1/3 innings.

Hendricks is a tough sell, too, with a 6.86 ERA. But he's pitched better at Wrigley Field and he might avoid facing two of the Twins' four best hitters. Carlos Correa remains out and Byron Buxton is questionable.

I'm going to fade Aaron Civale as a road favorite. Civale is 2-7 with a 5.08 ERA. That ERA rises to 6.23 when he pitches on the road.

I like Nationals starter DJ Herz better.

Washington has a winning home record in its last 24 games. The Nationals took two of three from the Brewers last month when playing at Milwaukee.

The Pirates struggle at Chase Field. They are 2-10 in their last dozen games there against the Diamondbacks.

Now Pittsburgh goes against Brandon Pfaadt, one of the more underrated pitchers in the National League. Pfaadt has made three starts since the All-Star break spanning 17 1/3 innings. During this time frame, he's given up only one run and 11 hits. He has a 3.09 home ERA.

Marco Gonzales gets the start for the Pirates. The lefty is working his way into shape after coming back from injury. He's allowed three runs and 13 hits in his last 9 2/3 innings. He is several tiers below Pfaadt. The Diamondbacks rank in the top-nine against southpaws in several major hitting categories, including batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.

The good news for the Marlins is Edward Cabrera is back from having spent two months on the injured list. The bad news is Cabrera has been terrible since his return. He's made three starts this month and has a 7.71 ERA.

The Orioles have an elite offense ranking first in homers and second in runs and OPS.

The Marlins are just the opposite. They have the fewest homers and are second-to-last in runs and OPS.

So this is an excellent spot for Orioles' rookie Chayce McDermott to make his big league debut. McDermott is backed by rested closer Craig Kimbrel and rested set-up man Yennier Cano.

The Phillies have the best record in baseball. They have their ace, Zack Wheeler, going today in a bounce back spot after the Twins won the first game of this series, 7-2, last night.

The Twins are 11 games above .500. But they are not an elite team. That's been proven whenever they've played top opponents. Minnesota is 2-19 against the Orioles, Guardians, Dodgers, Yankees and Brewers. The Phillies certainly are in that class.

Minnesota has padded its record by going 20-7 against the White Sox, A's and Tigers.

Philadelphia is 63-47 and has the second-best run differential in the majors at plus 107 runs.

Wheeler is having another huge season going 10-4 with a 2.70 ERA. Twins starter Simeon Woods Richardson can't compare to him.
The Twins also are without their three leading hitters with Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis and Jose Miranda all sidelined.

Tuesday Free Play

Rockies plus $1.43 hosting Red Sox 

I cashed with the underdog Rockies on Monday and am coming back with them as big home underdogs again today as a free play.

Boston is going through a low period having gone 0-4 since All-Star break.

This is an action play for me as I don't care for Colorado starter Ty Blach, who is 3-5 with a 5.46 ERA. Boston starter Cooper Criswell is struggling, too, with a 1-3 record and 6.94 ERA in his last five starts. He's never pitched at Coors Field.

A major problem for the Red Sox is their bullpen. It's minus closer Kenley Jansen and setup man Chris Martin. Those are Boston's two best relief pitchers. The Red Sox relief staff is terrible without those two. That was proven in last night's Rockies', 9-8, 12-inning victory when Boston's bullpen couldn't protect leads in the 10th and 12th innings.

Colorado is 9-9 in its last 18 games. The Rockies are 23-28 at home compared to 14-36 on the road. The Rockies also are riding a streak of having homered in 10 consecutive games.

So I find value in taking the Rockies at this price, against a cold Red Sox team going with a struggling starter and messed-up bullpen.

Coming off a high-profile three-game road series against the Dodgers that culminated with a loss on national television last night, the Red Sox face a tough situational spot meeting the Rockies at Coors Field.

Nothing against Red Sox starter Tanner Houck, who has pitched well this season, but this game does not set up well for Boston. Houck has yet to experience Coors Field having never pitched against the Rockies during his five-year big league career.

Houck won't be able to count on Boston's two best relief pitchers. Closer Kenley Jansen won't pitch during this series and setup man Chris Martin is on the injured list.

The key question is are the Rockies good enough to take advantage of this spot and upset Boston? Yes. Their starter, Austin Gomber, has pitched well at Coors and Colorado's confidence is up after taking two of three at home from the Giants this past weekend. The Rockies held the Giants to three runs in each of the three games.

The Rockies are a respectable 8-9 in their last 17 games. They play much better at home. The Rockies are riding a streak of having homered in nine consecutive games. Gomber has a 3.54 ERA at home compared to 5.61 on the road.

A pair of young, promising lefties go here, Nick Lodolo for the Reds and MacKenzie Gore for the Nationals.

The oddsmaker had it wrong in opening Gore and the Nationals as the favorite.

Lodolo has had a couple of starts to get the rust off since coming back from injury. He is 4-1 with a 2.27 ERA when pitching on the road. The Nationals are 29th in slugging percentage against lefty pitching. They've failed to hit a single home run the past 15 games when going against a southpaw.

Gore has tailed off. His velocity has been down and it's shown in his last four starts. Here are Gore's numbers during his past starts: 15 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings on 19 hits and 12 walks.

The All-Star break came at a good time for the Dodgers as they had lost six of their last seven games with five of those defeats occurring on the road.
But now the Dodgers are home and refreshed. I see them getting back on track against the Red Sox.

Boston hasn't played in Southern California since mid-April. The Red Sox have been playing good ball, but they are not in the class of the Dodgers.
This is an action play for me, but I also like the pitching matchup for LA.

Nick Pivetta goes for Boston. He's 4-6 with a 4.18 ERA. His night ERA is 5.48.

Gavin Stone is slated to go for the Dodgers. He's 9-3 with a 3.26 ERA. The Dodgers are 9-1 in Stone's last 10 starts, including winning the past six.

No reason to overthink this one. The Phillies have the best record in baseball. They are healthy again and are 14 games better than the Pirates. The pitching matchup of Aaron Nola vs lefty Martin Perez is heavily in Philadelphia's favor, too.

So I'm fine laying this price.

Nola is having another consistent, strong season. He's 11-4 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He hasn't given up more than three earned runs during 10 of his last 11 starts.

Now look at journeyman Perez. He's 1-5 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.62 ratio. That ERA goes up even higher to 6.75 going by his past three starts. The Phillies rank in the top 8 in major hitting categories against lefties, including batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.

Strong teams have a history of coming out of the All-Star break in winning fashion. Favorites went 11-4 (73 percent) in the first game following break last season.

The Giants are a sound 27-22 at home. They have a strong pitching matchup edge here and they catch the Twins with Minnesota possibly missing three of its best hitters.

Carlos Correa is batting .308 and is Minnesota's home run and RBI leader. He didn't play Saturday because of a bruised heel. Jose Miranda leads the Twins in hitting at .325. He's missed the past two games due to a sore back. Byron Buxton is batting .285. He didn't play yesterday either after crashing into the wall on Friday trying to make a catch.

Since this is the final day before the four-day All-Star break, it's likely all three of these key offensive cogs sit out. All three are right-handed batters, too.

That's an extra plus for lefty Blake Snell. The reigning National League Cy Young Award winner has made just two starts since early June because of a sore groin. Snell hadn't looked good this year - until his last start. That came against the Blue Jays at home this past Tuesday. Snell finally looked like his Cy Young Award-winning self, throwing five innings of shutout ball holding Toronto to only one hit.

Opposing Snell is Chris Paddack, who has a 5.18 ERA. Paddack's already bad ERA shoots up to 7.50 if you go by his past three starts. Paddack's road ERA this season is 7.25.

The Brewers are just 13-12 against lefty starters this season. They are facing promising rookie southpaw Mitchell Parker in this day game. Parker has a 2.61 day time ERA.

But that's not the main reason I'm backing the underdog Nationals.

The Brewers are starting washed-up Dallas Keuchel. That's the major part of this handicap is a fade on Keuchel, who has a 4.61 ERA. His ERA was 5.97 last season. Two years ago, Keuchel pitched for three teams - Diamondbacks, Rangers and White Sox. His ERA for those teams was 9.64, 12.60 and 7.88. He should not be favored.

The price is low enough to back the superior Braves against the cold-hitting Padres.

While Atlanta has scored 5 or more runs in five of its last six games, San Diego has managed just four runs in its last three games.

The Padres have lost four in a row.

I don't see Randy Vasquz, 2-4 with a 4.66 ERA, stopping the losing streak.

But I do see a buy sign on Braves rookie Spencer Schwellenbach, who held the Phillies to one run in six innings with six strikeouts and no walks this past Saturday. The Padres have never faced Schwellenbach, giving him the element of surprise.

The 44-49 Cubs, with their below average offense and defense, are trying to do what hasn't been done this season: Beat the 57-35 Orioles three straight in Baltimore. The Orioles haven't lost three in a row at Camden Yards all season.

The Cubs, though, have captured the first two games of this three-game series. Chicago's record is 4-10-1 in road series.

Anything is possible in baseball, but I don't see a Cubs sweep. The price is low enough to back Baltimore big in a pitching matchup of lefty Justin Steele against Albert Suarez.

Steele is off his first complete game. So he's in unknown territory for this start. He faces a potent Baltimore lineup that ranks first in the majors in several categories, including runs and homers. The Orioles rank No. 2 in slugging percentage and No. 3 in OPS against lefties.

Suarez is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball. He's 5-2 with a 2.48 ERA. Suarez has a 1.50 home ERA. He's allowed only one run during his last three home starts against the Rangers, Braves and Rays.

The Giants finally get to step down in class taking on the Blue Jays after having just played nine games against the Guardians, Braves and Dodgers.

San Francisco has the superior offense. The underachieving Blue Jays rank 26th in runs and 28th in home runs.

The Blue Jays are pitching Yusei Kikuchi, who has a 4.12 ERA, backed by a Toronto bullpen minus its two top relievers.

Fresh off the injured list and supposedly healthy, Blake Snell gets the call for the Giants. Snell's season numbers of a 9.51 ERA and 1.94 WHIP are due for much improvement as career-wise Snell has a 3.35 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Twice Snell has won the Cy Young Award, accomplishing in both the AL and NL.

Snell has a 2.74 lifetime ERA against the Blue Jays in 14 career starts.

Soft-tossing 35-year-old Miles Mikolas wasn't very good last year for the Cardinals with a 9-13 record and 4.78 ERA. He's worse this season with a 6-7 record and 5.19 ERA.

Mikolas isn't in good form either with an 8.27 ERA during his last three starts. Note this is a day game. Mikolas ERA in day games is 5.73.

I much prefer Washington's promising rookie southpaw Mitchell Parker. He's 5-4 with a 3.61 ERA. Parker has pitched his best at home where he's 3-0 with a 3.11 ERA. The Nationals have won four of Parker's five home starts.

Washington is averaging 7.6 runs during the first three games of this series.

The Cardinals are batting only .229 against lefty pitching. They rank second-to-last against lefties in batting and slugging percentage.

The Orioles have lost 24 fewer games than the A's, who have the second-worst record in the American League. But you wouldn't have guessed that judging by yesterday's game where the A's walloped the Orioles, 19-8.

Look for Baltimore to avenge that embarrassment today. The Orioles have just the pitcher to do that - Grayson Rodriguez. He's 10-3 with a 3.45 ERA. Rodriguez has won five of his last six road starts, including defeating the Mariners, Rays and Astros. Oh, yes, Rodriguez also is 4-0 with a 2.03 ERA in day games this season. 

The Orioles are familiar with A's rookie starter Mitch Spence. They got a look at him in an April 26 game. Spence is going to have problems handling a Baltimore attack that ranks No. 1 in runs, homers and OPS.

The Rays have won their last five series. But if they want to keep that series streak going they need to win this game after losing, 3-0, to the Rangers on Friday night.

I see the Rays accomplishing the task in a pitching matchup of Taj Bradley against southpaw Andrew Heaney.

Bradley has a high ceiling and is in tremendous form with a 1.24 ERA in his last five starts spanning 29 innings. He has 40 strikeouts during this time frame.

Texas has a below average offense. The Rangers are averaging 2.6 runs during their last three games. They are eight games below .500

The Rays are 14-7 vs lefty starters and going against a mediocre one in Heaney, who is 0-5 lifetime against Tampa Bay.

Paul Skenes has a 2.06 ERA. I haven't heard of a Pirates starter with an ERA that low since Vic Willis and he pitched at the turn of the century - the 20th century.

Unlike many other heralded rookies, Skenes is more than living up to the hype. He just might be the best pitcher in baseball.

Skenes has given up only three earned runs during his last four starts spanning 25 1/3 innings. He has 32 strikeouts during this span and 70 strikeouts in 52 2/3 innings.

The Pirates are 6-3 in Skenes' starts. The Mets just were held to zero runs and one hit by the Nationals on Thursday.

The Mets have the highest payroll in baseball. The Pirates have the second-lowest payroll in the majors. Despite that, the Pirates have just one fewer victory than the Mets.

Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets. He's having a good bounce back season, but is not the star pitcher he was with the Yankees. Severino's road ERA is 4.19 and he has a 4.66 ERA in his last three starts. The beleaguered Mets' bullpen remains without suspended closer Edwin Diaz.

The Astros are coming on having won 10 of their last 12 games. The Blue Jays are an underachieving seven games below .500, with an overrated offense, their two best relievers on the injured list and a bad manager.

I like Houston to bounce back here in a big way after losing by one run to Toronto on Tuesday.

Not only are the Astros the superior and hotter team, but they have a major pitching edge in a matchup of Ronel Blanco against lefty Yusei Kikuchi.

Blanco is having a big year with an 8-3 record and 2.49 ERA. He is 5-1 on the road with a 2.36 ERA. The Blue Jays faced Blanco the first time the teams met back at the beginning of April. Blanco threw a no-hitter against the Blue Jays in a 10-0 victory.

Kikuchi is in terrible form. He is 0-3 with a 10.64 ERA during his past three starts. The Astros have the sixth-highest batting average against southpaw pitchers.

Short price here to get promising rookie pitcher Jared Jones against Miles Mikolas.

Jones has been brilliant at home for the Pirates going 3-2 with a 2.20 ERA at PNC Park. I trust Jones to tame the Cardinals while the Pirates do damage against Mikolas, who is in terrible form.

Mikolas has gone against the Reds and Giants in his last two starts. He's allowed 13 earned runs on 18 hits and three walks spanning 10 1/3 innings during these past two starts. Mikolas has a losing record and a fat 5.32 ERA.

You have to go back to 2019 to find the last time Patrick Corbin had a winning season. Since then, Corbin is 28-64. The lefty's ERA is 5.46. Last year, Corbin's ERA was 5.20. The year before that it was 6.31 and it was 5.82 in 2021.

I rarely lay a price this large, but I'm going to do it here in order to fade Corbin.

The Rays are 13-7 against southpaw starters. They are pitching Taj Bradley, who is in his best form of the year giving up just four earned runs during his last four starts spanning 23 1/3 innings. Bradley has 29 strikeouts during this time frame. Bradley has faced three strong opponents during his last four games going against the Mariners, Twins and Orioles.

Bradley and a deep Tampa Bay bullpen can handle the Nationals while the Rays should do plenty of damage against Corbin.

Look for Reds southpaw Andrew Abbott to give the Cardinals fits. Abbott is 6-6 with a 3.40 ERA. Those aren't bad numbers, but the Cardinals rank in the bottom-three against lefty pitching in many major offensive categories, including batting, slugging percentage and OPS. They are hitting only .215 vs lefty throwers.

The Cardinals are going with Miles Mikolas, who defies mediocrity. He's 6-6 with a 4.68 ERA, which climbs to 4.81 when he pitches at home.

St. Louis is dealing with a fatigue factor after splitting a doubleheader with the Braves on Wednesday.

We know who Cardinals starter Kyle Gibson is. A mediocre journeyman, who has pitched for five different teams since 2019.

But just who is Reynaldo Lopez? This year Lopez has pitched like a superstar with a 5-2 record and 1.57 ERA. Atlanta is 7-3 in his starts this season. Lopez has been brilliant in his last four starts - all Braves victories - giving up three earned runs during this time spanning 23 innings with 29 strikeouts.

These pitchers were scheduled to face each other on Tuesday, but the game was postponed until today as part of a double-header. This is the first game of that doubleheader. So the game has to be re-bet.

The rainout on Tuesday has not changed what I think about this game.

St. Louis has been playing well, although its previous six series all were against below .500 opponents. But the Braves are clearly the superior team with a better offense, a bullpen that has the third-lowest ERA and a defense that has committed the fewest errors in baseball.

The Braves should be able to reach Gibson, who has a 4.28 home ERA, and a St. Louis bullpen carrying a high fatigue rating.

The Cardinals are playing better, winning eight of their past 11 games. They've also played six opponents with losing records during their last six series.

That won't be the case here against the 43-32 Braves. Atlanta is without superstar Ronald Acuna. But the Cardinals are likely to be without Wilson Contreras and possibly Nolan Arenado, who is dealing with left forearm nerve irritation.

The Braves are 8-2 in their last 10 games. They impressively took two of three road games from the Yankees, who have the second-best record in baseball.

Atlanta rookie starter Spencer Schwellenbach is in better form than St. Louis veteran starter Lance Lynn. Schwellenbach has allowed three runs on seven hits during his last two starts spanning 12 innings. St. Louis has never faced him giving Schwellenbach a surprise element.

I prefer a young promising Atlanta pitcher instead of Lynn, who has been nothing more than a glorified innings eater for the past several years. Lynn has a losing record this season with a 4.08 ERA. He has a 7.90 ERA in his last three starts. Lynn gave up five earned runs on 10 hits in 5 1/3 innings against the weak-hitting Marlins during his previous start six days ago. Lifetime against the Braves, Lynn has a 4.34 ERA in eight starts.

Seattle is a much better team than Miami and the Mariners hold a strong pitching edge today with a matchup of Bryce Miller vs Kyle Tyler.

Miller is a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter with a 3.46 ERA. He likely won't have to deal with Jazz Chisholm, the Marlins' RBI and stolen base leader. Chisholm is bothered by a right biceps injury and had to be pulled from Saturday's game.

The Marlins lost that game, 9-0, to the Mariners. Miami starter Braxton Garrett was scratched. The Marlins are already down six starters and their bullpen is taxed. So Tyler may have to pitch longer than expected.

Southpaw Garrett Crochet has been amazing for the White Sox with a 3.16 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 116 strikeouts, which is No. 2 in the majors.

I certainly have nothing against Crochet, although I'm leery that he can continue at a pace this good. But I am going to fade the White Sox at this low of a lay price with a hot Hunter Brown and a prideful Astros team that is off an embarrassing, 2-0, loss to the White Sox and rookie Jonathan Cannon.

Houston still is trying to turn its season around. But no team is worse than the White Sox, who are 20-54.

Only once since mid-May have the White Sox won two straight games.

The Astros rank in the top-12 in the major offensive categories against lefty pitching. They expect to get back slugger Yordan Alvarez after he missed Tuesday's game because of a family matter. Alvarez is batting .365 this month with 15 RBI's.

Crochet is coming off his second-highest pitch count of the season. The White Sox have to be careful with him since he's had Tommy John surgery, which caused him to miss the entire 2022 season. Only once this season has Crochet gone more than six innings. The White Sox bullpen ranks 27th in ERA.

Brown is riding a 13-inning scoreless streak. The Astros have a rested Josh Hader to close if needed. The White Sox rank last in runs, batting average and OPS.

When it comes to the Pirates, I won't go against Paul Skenes and I have great respect for the backend of their bullpen. Other than that, though, the Pirates are fair game. I'm going against them today in a pitching matchup of Nick Lodolo vs Bailey Falter.

The Reds are 8-2 in Lodolo's starts this season. Lodolo has a 2.93 ERA. He's been even better on the road with a 2.55 ERA. Lodolo has surrendered just six earned runs during his past four starts spanning 23 1/3 innings.

Falter is not in good form giving up eight runs and 16 hits in his past two starts spanning eight innings. Pittsburgh is 3-7 in Falter's starts this year.

Falter has a career 7.79 ERA against the Reds in five games, including three starts.

DJ Herz has one thing going for him as he faces the Marlins at home in his third big league start. Herz is a lefty.

The Marlins are a terrible team - especially when facing southpaws. Miami is 3-21 against lefty starters this season.

I expect Herz and a rested Washington bullpen to handle the Marlins. Miami is batting .223 vs lefties. The Marlins are second-to-last in the league in runs, homers and OPS.

Oh, yes, the Marlins also are averaging a puny 2.2 runs during their past 11 games.

David Peterson will be making his third start for the Mets this season. He's 1-0 with a 3.09 ERA. More importantly, he's a lefty. The Marlins have the second-worst record in baseball. A big reason for that is their 3-19 mark against southpaws. The Marlins are last in slugging percentage and second-to-last in on-base percentage when facing left-handed pitching.

Expect the Mets to bounce back from a 4-2 Tuesday loss to Miami. The Mets had a letdown against the Marlins after defeating the Phillies this past Sunday in London. New York was idle this past Monday.

Peterson has a 2.06 career ERA against the Marlins in seven games, including six starts. Miami starter Braxton Garrett has a 5.81 ERA. He's 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA in eight career games against the Mets, including seven starts.

Luis Gil has been coming through in a big way for the Yankees. Gil has been fantastic with an 8-1 record and 1.82 ERA. But Gil is trumped here by Tyler Glasnow.

Glasnow is in the argument for best pitcher in baseball. He has 2.93 ERA and leads the majors in strikeouts. Glasnow has faced the Yankees five times since 2020. He's 4-0 against them with a 1.45 ERA.

Both offenses are very strong. But the Dodgers rate an offensive edge, especially with Juan Soto likely not to be in the starting lineup because of a forearm injury.

The Padres are averaging 2.2 runs in their last five games. San Diego's offense is better than that. The Padres lead the majors in batting average and get to face Brandon Pfaadt at home. Michael King opposes Pfaadt.

These two pitchers went against each other at Arizona on May 4. The Padres won, 13-1. King threw six shutout innings giving up six hits while not walking a batter. King is in excellent form with a 2.41 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in his last three starts.

Pfaadt was tagged for five runs, three of which were earned, in six innings during that May 4th loss. He has a 4.32 ERA on the season, which balloons to 4.71 in his seven road starts.

In Woo we trust - especially going against the weak-hitting A's, who have scored six runs in their last three games.

Mariners pitcher Bryan Woo is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball. He was injured early in the season, but has come back to go 2-0 with a 1.30 ERA and 0.58 WHIP in five starts spanning 27 2/3 innings.

Woo has thrown 15 1/3 career innings against Oakland. The A's have yet to score on him.

A's starter JP Sears has a 4.01 ERA. He's taken on a hot Mariner team that is 8-2 in their last 10 games.

I had a winner with the Rays yesterday against the Marlins and am coming back on them again today. It's a low price to back a team that is one game below .500 and beginning to play better against the 21-40 Marlins.

Zach Eflin will be making his first start since May 18 after being out with a lower back injury. He'll be on a pitch count, but he's backed by a deep Tampa Bay bullpen that did the job yesterday. Miami ranks second-to-last in baseball in runs and homers.

The Marlins are going with southpaw Braxton Garrett, who has a 4.56 ERA. Tampa Bay is averaging 5.3 runs against lefty starters. Garrett has pitched awful in his two home starts with a 10.24 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.

Tampa Bay has owned the Marlins during the past six seasons going 22-3 against them.

The Rays have been disappointing this season. But they aren't nearly as bad as the 21-39 Marlins.

The price is low enough to fade the Marlins in a pitching matchup of Ryan Pepiot vs Jesus Luzardo.

Pepiot has cooled off after a hot April. He's 3-2 with a 3.88 ERA. Pepiot has a strong history against the Marlins with a 2-0 mark and 1.50 ERA in three appearances.

Pepiot is backed by a deep bullpen and facing a Marlins squad that ranks second-to-last in the majors in runs and homers. Miami has scored three or fewer runs in eight of its last 10 games. The Marlins have been shut out in their past two games.

Luzardo is 2-4 with a 4.18 ERA. The Marlins are 3-6 in his starts this season.

Even though the Cardinals have been playing a little better, they are still a below .500 team. The Phillies have the best record in baseball at 41-18. Philadelphia also has won eight consecutive home games.

So, why such a low lay price on the home Phillies?

Why, indeed. Puzzles me. But I'm happy to lay what I consider a short number to back the far superior team.

Perhaps it's the pitching matchup of veteran Lance Lynn with a 3.45 ERA going against a disappointing Taijuan Walker, who has a 5.51 ERA.

Lynn, though, is well past his prime. He's surrendered four earned runs in three of his last five starts. He hasn't gone more than six innings during any of these outings.

Walker is 30-12 during the past three seasons. He's due to pitch better. He's also backed by the better bullpen.

The Phillies lead the majors in runs scored, while the Cardinals rank 26th. So Lynn has the far more difficult task.

Regression is starting to come to the surprising Royals. They've dropped four of their past five games and lost second baseman Michael Massey to a back injury.

Quietly, the Padres have won seven of their last nine series. I like them to win the opener of this series with Dylan Cease opposing Michael Wacha.

Cease is having a strong bounce back season for the Padres after being acquired from the White Sox. Cease is 4-0 with a 2.45 ERA in away games this season. Wacha isn't in his class and he's facing a Padres team that has the fourth-highest batting average in the majors.

The Diamondbacks have been a disappointment so far this season after making the World Series last year.

But the Diamondbacks are in much better shape than the Mets.

The free-falling Mets are 4-15 in their last 19 games. They just lost their best power-hitter, Pete Alonso, to a hand injury and were ripped by pitcher Jorge Lopez following a 10-3 loss to the Dodgers last night.

Fair to say, morale is not exactly good in the Mets' clubhouse.

Now the Mets have to face Arizona's star pitcher, Zac Gallen. New York is going with rookie Christian Scott, who is 0-2 with a 3.97 ERA. The Mets are without closer Edwin Diaz, who recently went on the injured list with a shoulder injury.

The price is low enough to back Gallen.

The Brewers have yet to score against Cubs starting pitchers in 32 1/3 innings this season. And they've yet to face rookie phenom Shota Imanaga.

Imanaga goes tonight against Bryse Wilson. I'm backing Imanaga at this price. The lefty is 5-0 with a 0.84 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. The Brewers are 27th in batting vs southpaws. They also have the disadvantage of never having faced Imanaga.

Wilson isn't as good as his numbers - 3-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.16 WHIP - indicate. He's struggled historically against the Cubs with a 5.55 ERA in 10 career appearances, including six starts.

This is a short price to fade the road Marlins. The Marlins have the worst record in the National League at 19-36.

Jesus Luzardo draws the start for Miami. He's allowed nine runs in 10 2/3 innings during his two road starts this season.

The price is short because Matt Waldron is slated to start for San Diego. He's been pitching better lately, though, and is backed by a San Diego bullpen that has the seventh-lowest ERA in the majors.

Having Ronel Blanco back and a rested Josh Hader in the bullpen is enough for me to take the Astros against the A's, who are 4-12 in their past 16 games resuming their place as one of the worst teams in the majors.

Blanco is 4-0 with a 2.09 ERA. He is coming off a 10-game suspension and should be extremely motivated. Houston is 7-1 in Blanco's eight starts this season.

Aaron Brooks goes for Oakland. The 34-year-old is surprisingly back up to the Majors. He has a 4.15 ERA. The Astros already have seen him this year, beating him, 3-0, on May 15.

Lifetime, Brooks is 0-5 vs Houston with a 7.09 ERA.

The Red Sox are going for a three-game road sweep against the Rays today. I don't see them getting it.

Boston is 4-15 (21 percent) the past three seasons at Tropicana Field, including winning the first two games of this series. 

The pitching matchup is Brayan Bello vs Ryan Pepiot. 

Bello has a 3.96 ERA. He was just tagged for five runs on seven hits in 4 2/3 innings against the light-hitting Cardinals this past Friday. Bello surrendered three homers in that game. Bello is 1-3 with a 6.92 ERA in five career starts against the Rays. 

I have more faith in Pepiot, who has a 3.68 ERA. He's backed by a deep Tampa Bay bullpen.

These teams have been going in opposite directions. Tampa Bay is 11-5 in its last 16 games. Boston is 5-11 in its last 16 games. The Rays are now ahead of the Red Sox in the AL East standings because of this current form.

Some teams hate playing at Tropicana Field because of its turf and unconventional design. The Red Sox are one of those teams. Boston is 2-15 the past two seasons playing the Rays at Tropicana Field.

Part of the Red Sox problem is injuries to three key hitters: Trevor Story, Masataka Yoshida and Triston Casas are all out.

The pitching matchup is Tanner Houck against Taj Bradley.

Bradley is a young pitcher with a high ceiling. Since returning from injury, he's made two starts. He has a 2.45 ERA. Houck has an impressive 2.17 ERA. However, he's 3-5 and threw a career-high 112 pitches in 5 2/3 innings during a 4-3 home loss to the Rays this past Wednesday.

The Cardinals finished last in the NL Central last season. They are a half-game out of the division cellar this season. St. Louis ranks 28th in homers and is at a starting pitcher disadvantage in this matchup. So I'll lay a small price with Kutter Crawford against Miles Mikolas.

Cutter has turned a corner this season becoming a consistent pitcher with an impressive 2.24 ERA. Not only do the Cardinals rank third-from-last in runs, but their main power hitters are over-the-hill. St. Louis is 26th in homers.

The Red Sox should do damage against Mikolas. He was bad last season and he's bad this season with a 6.19 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. He's allowed eight homers in 48 innings. Mikolas is 0-2 with a 7.63 ERA at home this season.

Remember that 17-3 streak the Twins were on? It's over. The Yankees finished that off sweeping Minnesota, outscoring the Twins, 14-1, in three games.

I'm going to go against the Twins here as they open a series against the Guardians, who have a better record than Minnesota. Only the Yankees and Orioles have a better record in the American League than Cleveland.

The pitching matchup is Triston McKenzie vs Simeon Woods Richardson. I like McKenzie better. He has a 2.28 ERA in his past five starts. Richardson couldn't hold a 7-1 lead in his last start in a 10-8 loss to the Blue Jays last Saturday.

Cleveland is 10-3 in its last 13 home games, slugging 18 homers in those games. The Guardians have the top bullpen ERA in the majors at 2.44 and their deep relief pitching corps is rested as the team was idle yesterday.

The Phillies are 31-13, the best record in baseball. They are going for a four-game sweep of the Mets at home. Make room because I want to ride with them.

Philadelphia is 16-3 in its last 19 games, while the Mets are 1-8 in their last nine games if you discount two victories against the 18-25 Cardinals.

The pitching matchup also favors the Phillies with Taijuan Walker going against washed-up Jose Quintana, who has a 5.44 ERA and just gave up three homers to the Braves in five innings during his last start this past Friday.

The Phillies are 28-13. That's the best record in baseball. They've won 13 of their last 16 games. The Mets are below .500 with a mediocre offense. The Phillies have a far better offense and the superior starting pitcher going.

So I find this a low lay price to back the Phillies.

The pitching matchup is Cristopher Sanchez vs Sean Manaea.

Sanchez has allowed just one earned in four of his past five starts. He faces a Mets offense that is 15th in runs, 19th in batting average and 14th in homers.

Manaea has a 4.30 home ERA. He goes against a Phillies attack that ranks second in runs, third in batting average and fifth in home runs.

I want Justin Verlander and a rested Josh Hader going for me in this matchup. Verlander had his first poor performance of the season in his last start. He'll be highly motivated going against his long-time former team.  Verlander still is a well above average pitcher who rates a strong edge on comeback-minded Jack Flaherty, who has a 4.26 home ERA. The Tigers have a bottom-10 offense. The Astros finally have begun playing better. They have a winning record in their last dozen games. 

Kansas City's Michael Wacha has made two good starts this season. Both came against the White Sox, the worst offensive team in baseball. His other five starts haven't been good, particularly his last two. Those were against the Tigers and Rangers. Wacha gave up 11 earned runs and 18 hits in 9 2/3 innings against those two teams.

I don't believe Wacha should be a road favorite against the Angels. The Royals carry a high bullpen fatigue rating, too. Closer James McArthur has thrown 33 pitches during the past two days.

Angels lefty Reid Detmers was dynamite during his first four starts with a 3-0 mark and 1.19 ERA. He's struggled during his last three starts. But I believe he's turned the corner and has become a solid pitcher.

The Angels aren't good, but they are not as bad as some perceive. Before their series against the Pirates, the Angels had played a brutal schedule going against the Guardians, Phillies, Twins and Orioles.

The Yankees are off to an excellent start. The Astros are not. But after opening 7-19, Houston is slowly showing signs of getting turned around winning five of their last eight games.

Because of their slow start, I can get the Astros with Justin Verlander on the mound as an underdog today. I'll take that.

Verlander still is an elite pitcher. He's made three starts since returning from a shoulder injury and is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA. He has a rested Josh Hader to close.

The Yankees are pitching Luis Gil. I like him, but he's not a big inning guy. He's coming off a career-high 6 1/3 innings pitched against the Orioles this past Wednesday.

It takes a certain ineptitude to lose a home series to the White Sox, who are 3-14 on the road. The Cardinals managed to pull off the feat this weekend.

Both the Mets and Cardinals have been disappointments. But I'd rather take a plus price with the Mets than back the Cardinals, who rank among the bottom-three in several important offensive categories. This includes home runs and runs.

St. Louis is 6-9 at home. The Mets are 7-8 on the road.

Sean Manaea goes for the Mets. He has a 3.07 ERA. The Cardinals have failed to score more than three runs in five of their last seven games.

The Cardinals are going with Kyle Gibson, who has a 3.79 ERA. Gibson is the poster child for mediocre journeymen. And that might be giving him too much credit.

The Angels are 12-22. They've also played the Guardians (22-12), Phillies (24-11), Twins (19-14) and Orioles (23-11) during their past four series. Those are all strong teams, much better than the Pirates.

The 16-19 Pirates don't deserve to be such a big favorite against the Angels.

Angels starter Tyler Anderson is a veteran, who knows how to pitch. He has a 2.23 ERA on the season. The Angels expect to be reinforced with catcher Logan O'Hoppe and infielder Luis Rengifo today. Both have been out.

The Pirates are going with Mitch Keller, who never can be relied upon. The Pirates have lost his last three starts. Keller's ERA during this span is 6.19.

Reds pitcher Nick Lodolo has been one of the season's early surprises. He's 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Lodolo gives the Reds a big pitching advantage against Baltimore's Dean Kremer. So I see the Reds beating the Orioles and avoid getting swept at home by Baltimore.

Kremer is 2-2 with a 4.19 ERA. He has struggled in day action giving up 11 runs in 16 innings.

The Reds lead the majors in steals. They are due to breaking out of a scoring slump.

Slade Cecconi has been a nice early story for the Diamondbacks. There were at least seven Arizona starters rated ahead of Cecconi at the start of the season. But injuries to Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez have opened a spot in the rotation and Cecconi has taken advantage - so far.

Cecconi pitched 27 innings for Arizona in his major league debut last season and had a 4.33 ERA, while giving up four homers. He's made two starts this season, both on the road in pitcher's parks, going six innings each against the Giants and Mariners. He has a 2.25 ERA.

But now hitter's have more of a book on Cecconi. He's also pitching at hitter-friendly Chase Field and facing the best offense he's seen. The Padres have the third-highest road batting average at .274. They rank ninth on the road in slugging percentage and third in on-base percentage when away from Petco Park.

Oh, yes, the Padres also have their best pitcher going here, Dylan Cease. He has been sharp in five of his six starts this season posting a 2.78 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 40 strikeouts in 35 2/3 innings. Cease has held five of his six opponents to two earned runs, or fewer.

The Diamondbacks are 2-5 in their past seven games. They are averaging two runs per game during this time frame.

The Red Sox have been getting great pitching in building a 16-13 record. I don't see that continuing starting with this game.

Giants starter Logan Webb hasn't been scored upon in his last 19 innings. He's a proven elite pitcher. Boston starter Cooper Criswell isn't. He has a 2.38 ERA in 11 1/3 innings this season, but can't be counted on to go deep into the game. I'm not sold on the Red Sox's bullpen, particularly middle relief. Key setup man Chris Martin has a 5.56 ERA.

The Yankees got their bats going, scoring 30 runs on 37 hits in posting Saturday and Sunday victories against the Brewers.

I don't see the Yankees repeating that success against Grayson Rodriguez, one of the most promising pitchers in the American League. Rodriguez had his first bad outing of the season in his last start. However, he had a 2.63 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 24 innings during his first four starts this year.

The Orioles aren't likely to have closer Craig Kimbrel, who left yesterday's game with a back injury. Kimbrel, though, had blown two straight save opportunities.

I rate Rodriguez at least a tier above Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt, who has a 4.33 career ERA vs New York in four starts.

The Royals and Tigers are two of the most improved teams in baseball. I slightly favor the Tigers' pitching matchup with promising Reese Olson against Seth Lugo, a mediocre journeyman.

But why I really like the home Tigers here is the situation. Detroit was idle on Thursday, while the Royals had to sit out nearly a four-hour rain delay in nipping the Blue Jays, 2-1, at home on Thursday. The game was finally called after five innings.

Detroit has underrated pitching. Olson has pitched better than his 0-3 record and 3.80 ERA. The Tigers' hitting has picked up recently. Detroit has scored four or more runs in seven of its last eight games.

Lugo has pitched well to open the season going 3-1 with a 2.03 ERA. I see regression coming, though.

The Astros are 1-7 in their last eight games and in danger of being swept by the Cubs.

So why back Houston here? Three reasons: Justin Verlander, a rested Josh Hader and the Cubs have key injuries.

Verlander gives the floundering Astros credibility on the mound. He's facing Javier Assad. Hader, who has been the most dominant reliever entering this season, has had ample rest.

The Cubs will be minus Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki. Bellinger leads the Cubs in RBI's while Suzuki has driven in the third most runs for Chicago.

Tough spot, tough starting pitching to go against. That's the situation the Rangers face today.

This is Texas' first game at home in 12 days since returning from a 10-game road trip. The Rangers are up against Seattle starter Logan Gilbert.

Gilbert is an emerging star with a 1-0 record and 2.33 ERA. He gets overlooked in Seattle's pitching staff because of Luis Castillo and George Kirby, but he's one of the best No. 3 starters in the league. Gilbert has a 2.88 career ERA vs the Rangers in 10 starts.

Texas starter Dane Dunning isn't in Gilbert's class with a 2-1 record and 3.91 ERA. Dunning has a 4.28 lifetime ERA against Seattle in eight starts.