The White Sox have surprised the baseball world not only reaching the playoffs, but winning their first four games in the postseason. However, that streak came to a halt in a 9-3 loss to the Guardians on Wednesday.

The combination of the White Sox's momentum being slowed and facing Parker Messick puts me on Cleveland.

Messick has been amazing with a 2.56 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. That ERA shrinks to 2.22 on the road. He is 3-1 with a 2.56 ERA in 5 career starts vs. the White Sox.

The White Sox are likely to roll out a pitching combination of opener Hagan Smith, Anthony Kay and Erick Fedde. So the Guardians have a huge pitching edge making them worth backing at this low lay price.

The Braves let one get away on Wednesday blowing a late two-run lead in a 4-3 loss. Unfortunately for Atlanta, I see that loss costing them this NL Wild Card Series.

Because now the Braves are probably looking at about seven innings of Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. Atlanta can't match that pitching.

Wheeler's ERA in his last six starts is 1.67 spanning 37 2/3 innings. Nola has given up two earned runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 starts.

Only four teams have averaged fewer runs per game than the Braves since Aug. 1.

Grant Holmes is projected to get the majority of innings for the Braves here. He has a decent 3.44 ERA, but some of his metrics are troubling with a 1.31 WHIP, 1.3 home runs and 3.7 walks per nine innings allowed.

The Padres are ready to get their revenge after being eliminated by the Cubs in the 2025 National League Wild Card Series. San Diego blanked the Cubs, 8-0, on Tuesday. Look for them to win big again today.

No team has been hotter down the stretch than the Padres, who are 18-3 in their last 21 games and 42-18 in their last 50 games.

San Diego starter Nick Pivetta has proven trustworthy since coming off IL with a 1.45 ERA in 18 2/3 innings. He is backed by elite and rested closer Mason Miller.

Cubs starter Kevin Gausman is not in good form with a 5.87 ERA during his past three starts. 

Maybe the oddsmaker thinks the Mariners still have a chance to make the playoffs. But they don't and they should not be favored in a pitching matchup of Reid Detmers vs. Bryce Miller.

Detmers and Miller have gone in opposite directions. Detmers has a 2.20 ERA in his last 12 starters. Miller started fast but has a 6.15 ERA in his last seven starts. Seattle is 2-13 (13 percent) in Miller's last 15 starts.

The Angels have been a respectable 5-5 in their last 10 games. The Mariners are 4-6 in their last 10 games and have no incentive anymore after being eliminated from the postseason last night.

The A's rallied past the Angels, 9-7, last night. But I don't see the A's winning today in a pitching matchup of Walbert Urena, who has a 2.74 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, against Jeffrey Springs, who is 4-14 with a 6.18 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Springs' ERA goes up to 6.94 when he pitches at home.

The Angels are healthy while the A's are missing many of their top offensive players. The lengthy list includes Nick Kurtz, Jacob Wilson, Max Muncy, Brent Rooker and Tyler Soderstrom.

The Angels also hold a bullpen edge. The A's have the highest bullpen ERA at 5.29.

I won't say the Red Sox are fat and happy. But they have secured a playoff berth. The Guardians have not.

Cleveland is the hungrier team looking at not only earning a wild card spot, but possibly the AL Central Division title, too.

Boston has been playing well. So has Cleveland. The Guardians are 17-9 in their last 26 games.

The Red Sox could be missing Wilson Contreras. He leads them in home runs and RBIs. Contreras has been out the past three games because of a bruised hand.

Two young promising starters get the call here: Parker Messick and Payton Tolle. My strong preference is Messick.

Messick is 12–9 with a 2.57 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 189 Ks in 178 1/3 innings. That ERA shrinks to 2.21 ERA in 14 road starts this year. The Guardians have rested stud reliever Cade Smith to close if necessary. Smith has a 2.09 ERA and 1.00 WHIP to go with 37 saves.

Tolle is 3-3 with a 3.55 ERA when pitching at home this season.

In Cease we trust. A Dylan Cease, backed by a rested bullpen, matchup against Kumar Rocker is something I want to get behind.

Cease is a strong American League Cy Young Award candidate. Rocker is an inconsistent, bottom of the rotation type starter who is not in good form.

Cease has a 1.89 ERA in 81 road innings with 107 strikeouts. Toronto's bullpen ranks among the top eight in ERA during the past three months.

Texas is 25th in scoring and below average in other major offensive categories.

Rocker is 3-10 with a 5.02 ERA when pitching at home. He has logged more than 138 innings this season. His previous high was 64 2/3 innings. This is just Rocker's second season in the majors and he could be hitting a wall as he has a 6.16 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his past seven starts.

The Rangers also have to shake off a hugely disappointing loss on Thursday. They blew a late 3-1 lead and lost to the Red Sox, 4-3. That disastrous defeat may linger. 

The White Sox are bidding to become the first team in MLB history to make the postseason after losing 100-plus games in each of the previous two seasons. But Chicago's lack of big game experience has begun to show.

Losers of 12 of its last 17 games and seven of its past nine, Chicago has fallen out of first place in the AL Central.

I don't see the White Sox picking themselves up here in a pitching matchup of Detroit's Framber Valdez against bottom of rotation starter Erick Fedde, who has a 3.97 ERA and doesn't get many strikeouts nor goes deep into games.

Valdez is in excellent form with a 2-1 record and 1.42 ERA during his last three starts. Detroit's offense also is in excellent form. The Tigers are averaging 7 runs in their last seven games.

There is a perception that the Mariners are a good team. Well they are not. Seattle is 12 games below .500.

The Mariners have overrated starters and can't hit against lefties. One of those overrated starters is George Kirby, who gets the call here. Kirby will be facing southpaw Yusei Kikuchi, who is going through his best stretch having allowed just three runs in his past three starts spanning 17 innings. He has 17 strikeouts during this stretch. 

Seattle is batting .219 against lefties. That is the lowest mark in the majors. The Mariners are also last in slugging percentage and OPS vs. lefties.

Kirby has a disappointing 4.25 ERA and a career-low 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings.

The Angels defeated the Mariners last night and they are a good value to do it again today.

I find the Rays' Drew Rasmussen to be the most underrated starter in the American League. Rasmussen is consistently good. He has been pitching in the majors since 2020 and has a lifetime 44-22 record with a 2.89 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.

Rasmussen has been at his best this season with a 14-5 record, 2.88 ERA and 0.91 ratio. Rasmussen has a 1.89 ERA during his past three starts. He holds a huge edge on Houston rookie pitchers Ethan Pecko and Miguel Ullola.

Ullola probably is going to open for Pecko. Ullola has allowed three earned runs in seven big league innings. Pecko is expected to follow. He has a 5.19 ERA and 1.50 WHIP across 17 1/3 innings.

The Rays rank first in batting average and third in steals. The Astros rank 20th in batting average and last in steals. Houston has scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 of its last 9 games.

Tampa Bay holds the best home record in the American League at 47-25.

This is a crucial game for the Orioles as they trail the Guardians by three games for the final AL wild card spot.

Cleveland has solid pitching. But that is no thanks to Tanner Bibee, who is 5-15. Bibee is tied with Shane Baz for the most losses this season. Bibee has a 4.06 ERA and a career-low strikeout mark for 9 Innings.

Baltimore starter Brandon Young is 9-3 with a 3.42 ERA that shrinks to 3.38 if you go by his last five starts.  The Guardians rank second to last in scoring when playing on the road. Cleveland also is last in batting average on the road and third from the bottom in slugging percentage. 

The Giants' Logan Webb is one of the most dependable pitchers when he pitches in San Francisco. Webb's career home record with the Giants is 42–27  with a 2.92 ERA. He has a 3.39 home ERA this year.

I like the Giants and Webb to get it done hosting the Cardinals, who will be playing their 7th consecutive away game.

San Francisco is 13 games better when playing at home. Not only will the Cardinals be facing Webb, but they go from playing in the best hitters park in the National League - Coors Field - to pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. That is going from one extreme to another and it could take the Cardinals at least one game to adjust.

St Louis is pitching Michael McGreevy. He is 6-9, with a 3.97 ERA and 1.26 ratio. McGreevy is not in good form with a 5.51 ERA in his last three starts.

Much better team at a fair price. That is what this game comes down to. So I am on the Cardinals.

St Louis has 16 more victories than Colorado. The pitching matchup highly favors the Cardinals, too, with Kyle Leahy going against Tanner Gordon.

Leahy is 10-4 with a 3.13 ERA. Gordon is 1-4 with a 5.18 ERA.

The Cardinals rank third in scoring when on the road averaging more than 5 runs per game. The Rockies have a 4.73 ERA, second highest in the National League behind only the Nationals.

Anytime I can get the Brewers at a bargain price with the better pitcher going, I am on board.

It is the Brewers, not the Dodgers, who have the best record in baseball at 87-53.

Milwaukee has a starting pitching edge here, too, with Logan Henderson facing Kevin Gausman.

Henderson is 9-2, with a 2.48 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. Gausman is past his prime. He is 8-11 with a 4.52 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. That ERA climbs to 5.93 if you go by his past 13 starts. 

In Dylan Cease we trust. Cease is a strong AL Cy Young candidate with a 2.33 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and an AL-leading 217 strikeouts.

Since June, the Blue Jays have won 71 percent of his starts.

Cleveland is pitching its weakest starter, Joey Cantillo. He has a 3.70 ERA and 1.45 ratio. Cantillo is averaging 4.6 walks per nine innings.

The Guardians are three games below .500 since the All Star break, while the Blue Jays are 14-9 in their last 23 games. 

It takes a lot to make the Tigers a favorite these days as Detroit has lost 13 of its last 16 games.

But the short lay price on the Tigers is worth it in a pitching matchup of lefty Troy Melton against nominal starter Andrew Morris as this shapes up to be a bullpen game for the Twins.

Melton is 7-3 with a 1.86 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. The Twins rank 26th in slugging percentage vs. lefties. They are without dangerous right handed hitter Byron Buxton.

Morris has a 3.82 ERA and 1.34 ratio. The Twins have the fourth highest bullpen ERA at 4.84.

Riley Greene is expected to be activated today after being on the injured list. He could be the Tigers' most feared batter. 

The Phillies are 13-2 in their last 15 games. But I don't believe they should be a road favorite against the Diamondbacks here in a pitching matchup of Aaron Nola vs. Brandon Pfaadt.

Arizona is 40-29 at home. The Diamondbacks were idle yesterday. They are 10-1 in Pfaadt's 11 starts since he rejoined the starting rotation on June 30. Pfaadt's ERA during this time frame is 2.15.

Nola was one of the most disappointing pitchers last season with a 6.01 ERA. He has looked better lately, but still carries a hefty 5.03 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.  

There is a good possibility Ketel Marte comes off the injured list to play today. That would be a bonus for the Diamondbacks. Marte leads Arizona in RBIs and is tied for the team home run lead.

Arizona has a rested bullpen, while the Phillies' bullpen carries the sixth highest ERA during the last two months. 

Projected Orioles starter Kyle Bradish has had his ups and downs coming back from injury this season. But Bradish still is a much better pitcher than Colorado's Tanner Gordon and Baltimore is far superior than the Rockies.

The Rockies are tied with the Angels for the worst record in baseball at 52-85. Baltimore is 16 games better than Colorado.

The Orioles are 4-1 in their last five games. The Rockies have lost four in a row. Don't look for Gordon to stop the losing skid.

Gordon is 1-4 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. He doesn't profile well for Coors Field with only 69 strikeouts in 83 2/3 innings.

The Rockies have the fifth highest bullpen ERA at 4.77. The Orioles' bullpen has the fourth lowest ERA since July.

You can do a lot worse than back the Rays at Tropicana Field where they are an American League best 44-23. The Rays are reasonably priced here in a pitching matchup of Walker Buehler for the Padres against Nick Martinez.

Away from pitcher-friendly Petco Park, Buehler has a 5.21 road ERA.

Martinez is one of the more underrated starters this season. He is 13-4 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.

The Padres' bats have cooled off. San Diego is averaging just 2.2 runs in its last four games. 

Casey Mize has not been the same pitcher since coming to the Padres. Mize was enjoying a strong season for the Tigers. But he has a 7.00 ERA in four starts for San Diego.

The Padres are making the cross-country journey to play in quirky Tropicana Field where the Rays are a dominant 43-23 (68 percent). The Padres are 31-34 on the road.

Shane McClanahan has played a strong role in Tampa Bay's dominant home record. McClanahan is 7-1 with a 2.32 ERA pitching at Tropicana Field this season. 

The good news for the Orioles is their starter today is not named Kyle Bradish. Instead it's underrated Trevor Rogers.

The second piece of good news for the Orioles is that this is shaping up to be a bullpen game for the Cardinals and St. Louis ranks 7th from the bottom in bullpen ERA since July.

Rogers has given up two earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 12 starts. The Cardinals have scored the fewest runs of any National League team when playing at home and are second to last in home slugging percentage.

The Padres are hot, 11-3 in their past 14 games and 21-7 in their last 28 games.

The Pirates are not. Pittsburgh just got swept three games on the road by the Dodgers. The Pirates are 8-17 in their last 25 games.

Pittsburgh is averaging 3 runs per game during its last five games. The Pirates haven't scored more than 4 runs a game during this span. Now they face lefty Robbie Ray on the road.

Ray is pitching his finest ball of the season compiling a 1.82 ERA during his past 11 starts. The Padres have elite reliever Mason Miller rested and ready to close if necessary.

The Pirates are just 12-29 vs. southpaw starters. They rank in the bottom 10 against lefties in slugging percentage and on base percentage.

Pirates starter Braxton Ashcraft's 13-5 record is misleading. He has been given the best run support of any pitcher. Unlike Ray, Ashcraft is not in good current form. He has a 4.83 ERA during his past seven starts.

Since the All-Star break, the Padres rank second in runs a game averaging more than 5 runs per game. San Diego is averaging seven runs a game during its past three games. 

Bryce Miller has been in a slump for the Mariners. But I see him getting back on track at home here against the Cubs. Miller has a 2.09 home ERA compared to a 4.94 road ERA.

The Cubs have lost three in a row, averaging three runs per game in those defeats. They also have lost three straight road games.

Cubs starter Shota Imanaga has gotten worse during the season with a 4.65 ERA in his past 16 starts. Imanaga has surrendered seven homers in his last four starts. 

Kansas City's Noah Cameron was absolutely brilliant in his last start. He threw a complete game one-hit shutout in a 3-0 win against the Angels.

But Cameron also threw a career-high 115 pitches in that game. He had given up four earned runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Dodgers in his previous start. He has a losing record with a 4.16 ERA. 

The Tigers are a much better team than the Angels and they are throwing maybe the most underrated pitcher in the American League, Troy Melton.

Melton is 7-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.97 ERA. Detroit is 11-3 (79%) in Melton's starts this season.

The Royals are 22nd in runs and 25th in homers. They are likely to be missing two of their best offensive players with Jac Caglianone and Maikel Garcia injured.

The Tigers are 12th in runs and 14th in homers. 

I take no stock in Mets converted reliever Robert Stock. He is set to make his fourth start of the season. The results have not been pretty - a 6.57 ERA and 1.86 WHIP.

The Padres are 18-6 in their last 24 games.

San Diego has Michael King opposing Stock. King has been very solid giving up three or fewer earned runs in seven of his last eight starts. 

The Twins edged the Braves, 4-2, on Monday. I had the Braves in the game. That loss does not change my mind. Atlanta is the far superior team and has a pitching edge here with Tyler Mahle going against Zebby Matthews.

The Braves have lost 14 fewer games than the Twins. Atlanta has been a strong money maker as a short-to-medium road favorite going 16-6 when laying minus $1.50 or lower.
 
Mahle has been brilliant for Atlanta after being acquired at the trade deadline from San Francisco. He has made two starts for the Braves and has a 0.75 ERA in 12 innings with a 16-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The Braves have the third lowest bullpen ERA at 3.47. By comparison, the Twins' bullpen has the fifth highest ERA at 4.73.

Matthews has posted ERA's of 6.69, 5.56 and 5.34 this season during his three years in the majors. He has yet to establish any consistency.

Atlanta ranks eighth in scoring and has hit the fifth most homers.

Be it offense, starting pitching or bullpen, the Braves hold all the edges on the Twins.

Atlanta starter lefty Martín Pérez is 8-6 with a 2.96 ERA and a streak of 18 consecutive scoreless innings. The Braves have the fourth lowest bullpen ERA at 3.50.

Minnesota is 18-22 against lefties. The Twins rank 26th in batting average and 25th in slugging percentage vs. southpaws. 

The Twins are coming off a depressing three game home series against the Phillies where they were swept.

The Braves have lost 15 fewer games than the Twins. Atlanta has been a strong money maker as a short-to-medium road favorite going 16-5 when laying minus $1.50 or lower.

Atlanta ranks sixth in scoring and draws Bailey Ober, who has a 4.64 ERA and is striking out a career-low 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings.

The Twins' bullpen has the fifth highest ERA at 4.78.

Mariners starting pitchers have been much worse on the road starting with Bryan Woo.

Woo and the Mariners are a go-against here facing Hunter Brown and the home Astros.

Seattle is 7-16 in its last 23 games. The Mariners are 12 games below .500 on the season when playing on the road. Houston is above .500 at home and is going with its ace, Hunter Brown.

Woo's home/road splits are Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde to the extreme. Woo is 7-0 with a 1.96 home ERA compared to 1-8 with a 6.22 ERA on the road. Seattle is 2-9 in Woo's last 11 away starts.

Brown is coming around after being injured much of the season. He's 2-0 with a 2.41 ERA in his last three starts. He's backed by an Astros' bullpen that ranks second in ERA during the past 2 1/2 months.

The Mariners rank second to last in runs and batting average. They have scored fewer than 3 runs in seven of their last 11 games.

Bright spots have been few for the Mets this season. But lately veteran Sean Manaea has been shining for New York.

Manaea has allowed three earned runs in his last two starts spanning 13 innings. The real eye opener during this stretch is he has struck out 18 batters.

The Mets have won seven of their last 10 games. I like them to stay hot with Manaea going against Brad Lord in what shapes up to be a bullpen game for the Nationals.

Washington is 5-11 in its last 16 games. They remain without James Wood, who is on the IL with an oblique strain.

A bullpen game is rarely good for the Nationals. They have the fourth highest bullpen ERA in the majors at 4.91. 

The Marlins are no longer under the radar screen like they were during the first 3 1/2 months of the season. Since July 10, the Marlins are 10-18.

Miami has scored three runs or fewer in seven of its last 10 games.

Now the Marlins draw Chase Burns, who is 13-2 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

Sandy Alcantara is having a good year for the Marlins with a 13-6 record, 3.52 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, but his strikeouts per nine innings are at a career low and he is not in that upper tier where Burns resides.

Burns is coming off a rare bad start. He gave up five runs to the Nationals in 5 1/3 innings in an 8-2 road loss this past Saturday. Burns has not lost consecutive games during his past 18 starts.

I'm counting on that trend to continue.

Among the many bad pitchers on the Angels, rookie George Klassen can take his place at the head of the line. The sample is small, but very brutal. Klassen has pitched 8 2/3 innings and allowed 11 hits and 14 walks. He has a 7.27 ERA and 2.88 WHIP.

Klassen makes his Rangers counterpart, Cal Quantrill, look like Bob Gibson in comparison. Quantrill is a bottom of the rotation type starter with a 3.56 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. But that's a huge upgrade on Klassen.

Quantrill has the lower bar, too. The Angels rank in the bottom five in runs, batting average and OPS. They haven't scored more than four runs in 16 straight games. During this 16-game span, the Angels are averaging a meager 2.5 runs per game. 

Bailey Ober is tall, but not imposing. The 6-foot-9 inch Twins righty has only 63 strikeouts in 93 innings. Ober is my least favorite starter and is a fade for me when in a favorite's role, which he is here.

I much prefer Orioles starter Brandon Young, who is 8-3 with a 3.43 ERA. Ober has a 4.45 ERA.

The Twins did put up nine runs against the Orioles Monday night. Previously to that, though, they had not scored more than 3 runs during four of their last six games. They remain without injured  Byron Buxton, their key catalyst.  

The Orioles hold a bullpen edge, too. The Twins have the fourth-highest bullpen ERA at 4.85.

The Phillies are 15-37 when Jesus Luzardo, Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sánchez are not starting. None of those three are going Monday against the Cardinals in St Louis.

Instead Philadelphia is starting Andrew Painter, who should not be in a big league rotation right now with a 6.48 ERA and 1.57 WHIP.

The Phillies are 1-13 in Painter's last 14 starts!

The Cardinals, winner of five of their last seven games, are going with Hunter Dobbins. He is 2-2 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

This handicap is mainly a fade on Painter, but it should be noted the Phillies rank last in the National League in road scoring. 

Rarely am I interested in backing the Giants. The exception is in spots like this when getting Logan Webb as a home underdog.

Webb has a career record of 41-27 for the Giants when pitching at home with a 2.95 ERA. Webb is one of the rare positives for the Giants posting a 2.97 ERA during his past 11 overall starts. San Francisco has won his last three outings.

It is not like the Tigers are some superpower. They are 27-33 on the road.

Detroit starter Troy Melton has well exceeded reasonable expectations with a 1.58 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Regression should be coming. It should be noted, too, that Melton's last four starts have all been against below average offenses - Mariners, Orioles, Royals and Angels.

The White Sox have a two-game lead against the Twins and Guardians in the AL Central. But this is the time to go against the White Sox.

Cleveland rolled past Chicago, 8-2, on Friday and I expect them to win again today, holding a strong pitching edge both starting-wise and in the bullpen.

 The White Sox are 1-5 and have lost a season-high four straight games.

Gavin Williams had a strong second half last year and he's doing it again this season for the Guardians with a 55-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 2.48 ERA during his last five starts.

Cleveland has a rested Cade Smith to close. Smith has the second most saves with 30.

White Sox starter Anthony Kay is several tiers below Smith. He has a 4.01 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Chicago's bullpen lacks a reliable closer and carries a heavy fatigue rating.

Cleveland upgraded its hitting at the trade deadline picking up Jo Adell and Nathaniel Lowe. Angel Martinez, who hit a grand slam in Friday's victory, is now healthy again for the Guardians.

I am not a fan of 37-year-old Merrill Kelly at this late stage of his career. Kelly has a 4.86 ERA, a 1.45 ratio and is averaging fewer than six strikeouts per nine innings.

Arizona is 28-30 on the road and going against Gavin Williams, a pitcher I like much more than Kelly.

Williams has struck out at least 11 batters in each of his past four starts. He has a 1.07 WHIP on the season and a 3.09 home ERA. Williams has 97 more strikeouts on the season than Kelly.

The Guardians have a rested Cade Smith to close out the game if necessary. Smith has 30 saves, second most in the league.

The low price to back Milwaukee doesn't reflect the huge gap between these two teams. The Brewers are half a game behind the Dodgers for the best record in baseball at 68-41.

The hopeless Angels are 42-68 and already have started trading some of their veterans as Monday's trade deadline approaches.

Brewers starting pitcher Robert Gasser may be Milwaukee's weakest starter, but he has a low bar facing the Angels and is backed by a bullpen that has the sixth lowest ERA.

The Angels have a bottom-10 offense and are last in the American League in producing runs at home.

The Brewers rank in the top five in runs, batting average and OPS. Angels starting pitcher Jose Soriano has a 3.81 home ERA and gives up more than 4 walks per nine innings. The Angels' bullpen ERA ranks 22nd.

Milwaukee's past four victories have come by a combined 24 runs.

The Rays' 40-16 home record, easily the best in baseball, cannot be ignored. Neither can Tampa Bay starting pitcher Nick Martinez. He's been excellent going 10-2 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.

That is a winning combination to back against the White Sox here.

Chicago is 23-30 on the road and starting Erick Fedde, who is 5-6 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.

Tampa Bay is a season-best 20 games above .500 at 64-44.

The White Sox are much improved. But they are not a good road team and they don't have the right pitcher to match up against Martinez here.

Take away Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger and the Yankees aren't so fierce on offense. New York's bullpen is vulnerable without closer David Bednar. He isn't likely to pitch having made four appearances during the last five days, including throwing 25 pitches on Tuesday night.

White Sox starter Davis Martin has been below the radar, especially when pitching at home where he is 5-1 with a 2.34 ERA and has been tagged for only one home run in 50 innings. 

The White Sox are a very strong 32-21 (60%) at home.

The Yankees are such strong favorites because Cam Schlittler is slated to pitch. Nothing against Schlittler, who has been superb. But he already has made four starts this month throwing 397 pitches. He is off a brilliant start against the Phillies this past Friday holding them to one run in 7 1/3 innings.

However, Schlittler allowed three earned runs to the Dodgers in only 4 1/3 innings prior to the start against the Phillies. The White Sox aren't the Dodgers, but they are the third highest scoring home team in the American League averaging 5.0 runs when playing at Rate Field.  

Sandy Alcantara isn't nearly the same pitcher he was when he won the National League Cy Young Award four seasons ago. Tommy John surgery has robbed him of his previous dominance.

But Alcantara has put together eight quality starts during his past nine outings. Miami is home where it is 32-23 and rates a pitching edge with the Phillies throwing Aaron Nola against Alcantara.

Nola had a 6.01 ERA and 1.35 WHIP last season. He has been just as bad this season with a 5.82 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. He has surrendered 25 homers in his 21 starts this year. That projects to giving up 38 homers on the season.

The Phillies have below average offensive numbers in many key categories. They are fourth from the bottom in road scoring, averaging fewer than four runs per game when away from home. 

At 37, Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly is enduring his worst season. Kelly has a 5.12 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. Those are the highest he's had during his eight-year career. Kelly has surrendered at least one home run in each of his last five starts

The Pirates are just the team to take advantage. Pittsburgh ranks No. 1 in batting average, second in runs and third in OPS. The Pirates have scored 300 runs in 54 home games to rate first in home scoring with an average of 5.5 runs a game.

Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller has a 4.90 ERA, but is facing a Diamondbacks team that is 19th in road scoring averaging 4.2 runs.

Keller is 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA in six career appearances (all starts) versus the Diamondbacks. 

Nover Monday Free Play Nationals minus $1.25 hosting Blue Jays 

Future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer has 222 career victories. He may not get another one.

Scherzer, who turned 42 today, is set to make his first big league start since June 10 having dealt with back and thumb issues since then.

The three-time Cy Young Award winner is 1-4 this season with a 10.23 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and has only 14 strikeouts in 22 innings.

So, yes, sadly I would say Scherzer is washed up. The Nationals are just the team to put an exclamation point to that.

Washington leads the majors in runs, homers, steals and OPS. CJ Abrams is first in RBI's and James Wood is fifth in homers with 30 of which 20 have come at home.

The Nationals are two games above .500. The Blue Jays have been a major disappointment with a 48-58 record. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit only six home runs and Toronto is the lowest scoring team in the league averaging 3.9 runs per game.

So this isn't a high bar for Andrew Alvarez, who has been the Nationals' second or third best pitcher. Alvarez has a 4.22 ERA, but has better metrics than what his ERA is. He is averaging 9.3 strikeouts and 0.3 home runs allowed per nine innings.  

All unsung Nick Martinez does is win and pitch well. Martinez is 9-2 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

The combination of Martinez going against overrated Tanner Bibee and the Rays playing at home puts me on Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay has won 71% of its games at Tropicana Park this season going 36-15. No team has a better home record.

Cleveland ranks 29th in homers. The Guardians are 27th in batting average and 26th in homers.

Bibee is 4-9 with a 3.86 ERA, while surrendering 1.5 home runs per nine innings. He's not a big strikeout pitcher either. 

The Angels' Ryan Johnson is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball with a 6.10 ERA. He gives up 2.3 home runs and 3.8 walks per nine innings.

The Giants don't have to be the 1927 Yankees to take advantage, especially since the Angels also have the seventh-highest bullpen ERA at 4.45.

Giants starting pitcher Robbie Ray has a 4.35 road ERA, but a 5-1 record and 2.44 ERA when pitching at home. The bar is set low for Ray against an Angels offense that is below average in all the major categories. 

No team in the majors has a better home record than the Rays. Tampa Bay has won 70% of its games at Tropicana Park this season going 35-15.

I am going to ride the Rays and Shane McClanahan against the weak hitting Guardians. Cleveland ranks 29th in homers and OPS. The Guardians are 27th in batting average and 26th in homers.

Tampa Bay is giving up an average of only two runs per game during its last four games.

When healthy McClanahan is one of the best left-handers in the American League and he's healthy now. McClanahan has a 3.16 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

Guardians starter Joey Cantillo has a 3.74 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, giving up an average of 4.4 walks per nine innings.

Cantillo has the tougher opponent to navigate as the Rays have the third highest batting average and are seventh in OPS. 

Cleveland blasted the Twins, 13-4, on Monday and is in good shape to soundly beat Minnesota again today.

The Guardians have reliable Parker Messick starting while this is shaping up to be a bullpen game for Minnesota with Kendry Rojas listed as the nominal starter. He hasn't pitched more than four innings in a game during his 19-inning big league career and has a 1.60 WHIP.

The Twins' bullpen carries a 5.11 ERA, fourth-worst in baseball.

Messick is 8-5 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He is averaging 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Messick is backed by a superior Cleveland bullpen featuring rested saves leader Cade Smith.

At this juncture of the season, you have to hand it to 33-year-old Eduardo Rodriguez. He has turned back the hands of time. After posting ERA's above 5.00 during the previous two seasons, the Arizona lefty is having a fine 2026. Rodriguez is 8–3 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.

He certainly gives the Diamondbacks an edge against Cardinals starter Andre Pallante, who has a 3.96 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.

Rodriguez is in better form, too, allowing one or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts. Pallante has allowed five or more earned runs in two of his last three starts.

Arizona is a very solid 28–21 at home and 5-1 during its last six overall games. 

Sunday Free Play

Reds at Rockies Over 11

There were 13 runs scored and 23 hits in yesterday's Rockies' 10-3 victory against the Reds. I have to believe there will be at least a dozen runs scored today given the starting pitching matchup, terrible bullpens and extremely hot weather in Denver with temperatures expected to reach the high 90's. Coors Field is rough enough without any of those factors.

Hunter Greene will be making his third start of the season since coming back from injury. It has not gone well for him so far to put it kindly. Greene has a 6.97 ERA giving up eight earned runs in 10 1/3 innings. Greene's history at Coors Field does not inspire confidence. He is 1-1 there with a 8.16 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in three career starts.

Rockies starter Ryan Feltner isn't exactly a stud. He has a 4.55 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. He doesn't strike out many and has a 1.6 home runs and 3.4 walks allowed per nine innings ratio.

The bullpens are brutal with the second and third highest ERA's in the National League.

It's not good when you point to a series against the Rockies as being absolutely crucial. But that is the situation the Reds are in being eight games out of the final wild card spot.

Cincinnati is in must-win mode here. I like the Reds as underdogs to the Rockies, who are a National League-worst 39-59.

I trust Cincinnati starter Brady Singer more than untested Colorado rookie starter Gabriel Hughes.

Singer is pitching his best of the season with a 2.79 ERA during his last seven starts. He has 40 strikeouts in 38 2/3 innings during this time frame.

Hughes has thrown nine big league innings. He had a 4.63 ERA in the minor leagues and is rated as the Rockies' 16th best minor league prospect. So he's not exactly a phenom.

Colorado relievers have a 4.94 ERA. That is the second highest ERA in the National League behind only Washington. 

Nothing against Zack Wheeler, who is having another excellent season. But he is topped by Tarik Skubal and a hot Tigers team.

Skubal, the two-time reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, is back from injury and in elite form. Skubal has allowed two earned runs and struck out 18 during his past two starts spanning 11 innings. He is backed by a Detroit bullpen that has posted the third lowest ERA since June.

The Tigers are a blazing 9-2 in their last 11 games. They have scored six runs or more in seven of those nine victories.

Only three teams score fewer runs on the road than the Phillies. Philadelphia ranks 24th in batting average and OPS on the season.

The Phillies' bullpen has been much worse than Detroit's ranking 26th in ERA at 5.41 since June. 

Back playing at their quirky Tropicana Stadium this season, the Rays have reeled off the best home record in baseball at 33-14 (70 percent). Seattle is 20-27 on the road.

Tampa Bay has the superior offense and a starting pitching edge here with Nick Martinez going against Luis Castillo.

Martinez is one of the more underrated pitchers in the majors with a 7-2 record, 2.61 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He has been amazingly consistent holding opponents to three runs or fewer in 16 of 17 starts.

Castillo is past his prime. He is the weakest of all of the Seattle starters with a 4.79 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.

The Rays rank third in batting average and 16th in runs. The Mariners are 27th in both runs and batting average. Seattle remains without its most dynamic offensive player, injured Julio Rodriguez.

Bailey Ober is a 6-foot-9 inch stiff. He is my least favorite starting pitcher in the American League. Ober had a 5.09 ERA last season for Minnesota and has a 4.59 ERA this season. Fortunately for the Twins, Ober has been out for nearly six weeks because of an elbow strain.

Ober returns to make his first start since May 30. I have no problem fading him against Cleveland starter Gavin Williams, who is 9-4 with a 3.89 ERA and 123 strikeouts in 106 1/3 innings.

Williams has made three career starts at Target Field and has a 1.38 ERA in 13 innings.

Cleveland has a top 10 bullpen with an elite closer in Cade Smith. The Twins are tied with the Royals for having the highest bullpen ERA at 5.24.

The Guardians are missing Jose Ramirez. But the Twins also are missing their best offensive player with Bryon Buxton out. 

White Sox starter Davis Martin has earned my trust when pitching at home with a 5-0 record and 0.88 ERA.

The White Sox are much improved. Martin and loads of young talent are among the reasons why Chicago has gotten to the point where it is leading the AL Central Division.

Home runs and offense matter. The White Sox rank 10th in runs and fourth in homers. The Red Sox, by contrast, are 26th in scoring and last in homers.

Boston rookie starting pitcher Jake Bennett has pitched surprisingly well. But he doesn't outrank Martin on the road, nor does the Red Sox offense.

The price is low enough to back the White Sox. 

Quietly the Marlins have been one of the hottest teams in baseball winning 13 of their last 17 games. I like their chances here hosting the Mariners, who are 3-8 in their last 11 road games.

This appears to be an even pitching matchup of Bryan Woo against Max Meyer. But it is not.

Meyer is 5-0 with a 2.13 ERA when pitching at home. Woo is far worse when pitching on the road with a 1-6 record and 6.38 ERA.

Meyer gets to face the easier offense, too. Seattle ranks in the bottom six in runs, batting average and OPS. Julio Rodriguez is out. He's the Mariners' best player.

The Marlins rate sixth in batting average and OPS. 

Elly De La Cruz has returned for the Reds. Now Hunter Greene is set to make his season debut. It's a huge boost for Cincinnati.

Greene was 7-4 with a 2.76 ERA in 107.2 innings of work last season. Greene didn't allow a hit in 10 innings in his Triple-A rehab starts.

Orioles starter Brandon Young is having a surprisingly solid season with a 6-2 a record and 3.11 ERA. Young, though, has been pitching above his head. He's not a big strikeout guy and he is averaging 3.4 walks per nine innings. 

The New York Yankees franchise has been in existence for 123 years. All through that time the Yankees had never been held to three hits or fewer in four consecutive games.

Until now.

The Yankees are batting .098 in their last four games - lowest ever in franchise history - are playing sloppy defense and will be without their two best offensive weapons along with closer David Bednar.

So even with stud pitcher Cam Schlittler on the mound, I am going to fade the favored Yankees. The Tigers have their superstar pitcher going, Tarik Skubal. He has won the past two American League Cy Young Awards. This will be his fourth start since coming back from injury. So Skubal should not have any rust and be able to pitch deep into the game.

Detroit's top relievers are rested since none of them pitched during the Tigers' 7-3 victory against New York Monday night.

The Yankees will be missing closer Bednar, who is on paternity leave, along with injured Aaron Judge and Jazz Chisholm, who was placed in concussion protocol following a collision on Monday.

In addition to their hitting woes and bullpen vulnerability, the Yankees are playing sloppy defense. They have permitted 20 unearned runs in their last 10 games.

The Tigers have a winning record in their last 11 games. They are a good enough team to take advantage of the Yankees' poor play, especially with Skubal pitching for them. 

Tuesday Free Play

Rays-Royals Under 10 1/2 minus $1.05

Given the low quality of the offenses here, I find this total too high.

The Rays have hit the second fewest homers in the majors. They are averaging 2.7 runs a game during their past eight road contests.

Kansas City ranks in the bottom 10 in batting average, OPS and home runs. The Royals could be without three of their best offensive players. Vinnie Pasquantino and Maikel Garcia are on the injured list and Jac Caglianone is day to day with a groin injury.

Two underrated pitchers are getting the start here - Griffin Jax and Noah Cameron.

Jax has a 2.40 ERA as a starter. Cameron has given up three or fewer earned runs in seven of his last nine starts. 

Rays starting pitcher Nick Martinez is not a big strikeout pitcher. What Martinez does is deliver quality starts. He has a 2.73 ERA and 1.16 ratio. Tampa Bay is 11-4 (73 percent) in Martinez's starts this season.

Zac Gallen gets the start for Arizona. The Diamondbacks are 3-8 (27 percent) in Gallen's last 11 starts. No surprise as Gallen has a 6.10 ERA and 1.53 WHIP.

The Rays are home where they are 28-12. The Diamondbacks are traveling from St. Louis where they had to wait around on Thursday before their game against the Cardinals was rained out. Arizona is 17-22 on the road.

Neither team has shown much power this season. The Rays, however, are superior to the Diamondbacks and playing at home.

Tampa Bay is a solid, well-managed team that runs the bases well and has a deeper bullpen than the Diamondbacks.

Arizona's offense is way down this season. The Diamondbacks rank 27th in homers, 26th in OPS and 21st in batting average. 

The Padres are in a lot of trouble here having to go with JP Sears, who has a 5.04 ERA on the season, and a heavily fatigued middle relief bullpen. Sears' ERA goes up to 6.00 if you count just his last three starts.

The Braves are averaging the second most runs per game when playing on the road. So they certainly have the offense to take advantage.

San Diego ranks in the bottom three in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS versus left-handed pitching. The Braves are starting southpaw Martin Perez, who has a 2.78 ERA.

Perez is backed by a Braves bullpen that has the lowest ERA this month.

Seems hard to believe, but Rockies starter Kyle Freeland had a 2.30 ERA  back on April 7 after beating the Astros. Freeland has not won since. He has been so bad that his ERA now sits at 7.98 and he has a 1.70 WHIP.  Colorado is 1-9 in Freeland's last 10 starts.

If this isn't bad enough, the Rockies have the highest bullpen ERA at 5.12.

Pittsburgh has the offense to take advantage. The Pirates are averaging nine runs during their last two games. They rank in the top five in runs, batting average and OPS.

Freeland's career mark against the Pirates is 3-5 with a 5.15 ERA in 10 outings.

Pirates starter Bubba Chandler hasn't been good with a 4.76 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, but he's superior to Freeland. 

Seattle is home, has the better starting pitcher and the superior bullpen. Baltimore has the better offense, especially with Randy Arozarena out, but that is off-set by T-Mobile being such a strong pitcher's park.

The Mariners are 20-16 at home. Baltimore is 12-21 in road games. This is just the Orioles' second West Coast game of the season. They have dropped three straight away contests.

Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Bradish has a 4.30 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP while allowing 1.4 home runs and 4.8 walks per nine innings. Mariners starting pitcher George Kirby has a 4.07 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP while giving up 0.9 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings.

Seattle has the sixth lowest bullpen ERA at 3.43. Baltimore relievers rank 21st in ERA at 4.53.

The Angels have two major problems here. They don't win on the road and they don't win for Reid Detmers. The Angels are 12-24 on the road and have lost in nine of Detmers' 14 starts.

The Diamondbacks play much better at home where they are 22-14.

Detmers has an impressive 97 strikeouts in 81 innings, but is saddled with a 4.00 ERA and has been victimized by a bad Angels bullpen that has the fifth highest ERA at 4.79 and lacks a reliable closer.

Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly has been pitching better after a slow start. He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in six of his past seven starts. Kelly has a low bar as the Angels have the eighth lowest batting average and the highest strikeout percentage.

You can make a good case that the Mets are the most underachieving team in the majors given their payroll, which is the second highest in baseball at $369 million. You also can make an argument that Chase Burns is the hottest pitcher in baseball.

The two converge here and it puts me strongly on the Reds.

The Mets are 32-39. That includes a 14-21 road mark. Burns is 4-0 with a 1.73 ERA and 49 strikeouts in his past seven starts.

Burns has a 2.14 ERA and 0.99 ratio on the season. Cincinnati is 33-37. But the Reds are 9-4 in Burns' starts this year for 69 percent. The Mets are second to last in scoring when on the road.

The Mets are likely to open with Tobias Myers, who has a 4.05 ERA, and then quickly turn to David Peterson, who has been a major disappointment with a 5.75 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. 

It's not that I don't like Mets rookie pitcher Nolan McLean. I actually have a high regard for him. But the Mets should not be favored against the Braves here.

Atlanta has the best record in baseball at 45-23. The Mets are 30-38.

McLean is 2-3 at home with a 4.46 ERA.  McLean's ERA in his last three starts is 5.65.  The Braves average nearly six runs on the road and have a top four offense overall. 

Spencer Strider gets the start for Atlanta. He is backed by a Braves bullpen that has the lowest ERA in the majors at 2.93. Unlike the Mets, the Braves bullpen is rested, too, following Thursday's postponement. Atlanta hasn't  allowed more than three runs a game in six of its last eight games. 

The Mets could manage only seven runs during their recently concluded three-game series against the Cardinals.

A wrong favorite here gets me involved with the Braves. 

The Dodgers are not a team I like to go against. But a lopsided pitching matchup of Eric Lauer against Paul Skenes at this price puts me on Pittsburgh.

Many rank Skenes as the best pitcher in baseball, myself included. Except for a couple of outlier starts, Skenes has been his usual dominant self with a 3.09 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 82 strikeouts in 70 innings.

Yes, the Dodgers can hit ranking third in runs and leading the majors in batting average. But the Pirates  have greatly improved their offense to the point where they rank sixth in runs and batting average.

The home Pirates also get the huge advantage of facing Eric Lauer, who has a 5.74 ERA, 1.38 ratio and allows an average of 2.5 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings. 

When it comes to underrated pitchers, the Marlins' Max Meyer just might head the list. He is 6-0 with a 2.81 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and averaging 9.9 strikeouts per 9 innings.

Meyer is taking on a cold scoring Diamondbacks team that is averaging only two runs per game during their past five games.

Facing Meyer is Arizona starting pitcher Zac Gallen, who was bad last season and even worse this year with a 5.32 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and giving up 1.5 home runs per nine innings. Gallen's road ERA is 7.57.

There is not a lot to like about the Royals especially when they are on the road as they are here.

Kansas City is 4-16 in its last 20 games (20 percent) despite beating the Reds Monday night. The Royals are 8-20 on the road. They have scored the fewest runs when playing away from home and also have the fourth lowest batting average as a visitor.  

Reds starter Andrew Abbott is going through his best stretch this season giving up just four earned runs in his last five starts.

Royals starter Noah Cameron hasn't been nearly as good as he was his rookie season last year. He has a 4.61 ERA.  Kansas City is 1-8 during his last nine starts.

Cameron can't expect any help from a bullpen that has the second highest ERA in the majors at 5.08. 

Michael Wacha has done a solid job of pitching for the Royals this season. But Wacha isn't nearly good enough to overcome Kansas City's 7-19 road record, lack of hitting and horrendous bullpen.

Texas has an above .500 record at home. The price is low enough to back the Rangers, who are pitching Jack Leiter. He has been on and off this season, but has a lower ERA at home and 64 strikeouts in 60 1/3 innings.

The Royals rank second to last in runs. So it is a low bar for Leiter.

There is a huge contrast in the bullpens. Texas relievers have the eighth lowest bullpen ERA while the Royals have the second highest bullpen ERA at 5.22. 

Of the many bad starting pitchers in baseball, the Reds' Chris Paddack can take his well deserved place. Paddack is 0-6 with a 6.86 ERA and has a 1.67 WHIP.

So this is an easy fade of the Reds for me taking the Braves. Atlanta ranks in the top three in runs, batting average, homers and OPS.

Atlanta is pitching Grant Holmes, who is 3-2 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He is backed by a Braves bullpen that has the third-lowest ERA at 3.10. Cincinnati's bullpen has the fourth highest era at 4.92. 

The Yankees are not likely to defeat the Royals by 14 runs like yesterday, but they should win. After all, they have beaten Kansas City 12 straight times.

New York's lineup is far more powerful than the Royals and the pitching matchup is in the Yankees' favor, too.

Gerrit Cole looked like he was still in his prime pitching six scoreless innings against Tampa Bay last Friday night. That was his season debut having missed last season. Cole has a rested bullpen behind him.

Lefty Noah Cameron gets the start for Kansas City. He hasn't been nearly as good as he was his rookie season last year. Cameron is 2-3 with a 4.72 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Behind him is a Royals bullpen that carries a high fatigue rating and could be making a change at closer. Royals relievers have a 4.89 ERA, fourth-highest in the majors. 

The Yankees lead the majors with 82 homers - which is 31 more home runs than the Royals have hit - and mash lefties. The Yankees rank first in slugging and OPS against southpaws. Cameron has gone against the Yankees twice. The results have not been good as he has given up 14 hits and 13 runs in 9 2/3 innings.

If the Phillies are not concerned about Aaron Nola they certainly should be. Nola was terrible last season with a 6.01 ERA and 1.35 WHIP and he's been even worse this year with a 6.04 ERA and 1.55 WHIP through 10 starts.

Nola and an offense that has produced the fifth fewest runs are two of the main reasons why the Phillies are just a .500 team. Philadelphia has managed only 12 runs in its last six games, an average of two runs per game.

Padres starting pitcher Randy Vasquez quietly has been highly effective with a 2.96 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Vasquez is allowing fewer than one home run per nine innings and 2.6 walks per nine innings.

Led by Mason Miller, the best closer in the National League if not all of baseball, San Diego's bullpen has the fifth lowest ERA at 3.13. The Phillies' bullpen has a 3.93 ERA. 

Not only do the Athletics have a superior offense to the Padres, but I trust their starting pitcher, JT Ginn, more than San Diego starter Lucas Giolito.

Giolito is making only his second start of the season after being sidelined at the end of last year because of an elbow injury. Giolito gave up three runs in five innings against the Mariners in his season debut.

Ginn took a no-hitter into the 9th inning in his last start in Anaheim, striking out 10 Angels batters. He is underrated with a 2.98 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Ginn faces a weak San Diego offense that ranks last in batting average at .221 and is second to last in OPS. 

One of baseball's great what ifs is being answered this season. This particular what if is how good would Tampa Bay’s Shane McClanahan be if he had not missed 2024 and 2025 due to injury?

The answer is darn good.

McClanahan has not been scored upon during his last 21 2/3 innings. He has a 2.27 ERA on the season with a 0.98 WHIP.

Tampa Bay is a blistering 18-4 in its last 22 games. The Rays are 16-5 playing at their quirky Tropicana Stadium.

The underachieving Orioles are 6-11 in their last 17 games. They are 9-14 on the road. There is a 69 run difference between the two teams. Tampa Bay is plus 25 runs and the Orioles minus 44.

Don't look for Orioles starting pitcher Trevor Rogers to turn the tide. He has been one of the more disappointing Orioles with a 5.77 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. The Orioles have lost his last four starts. 

The Blue Jays have been a major disappointment this season being five games below .500. Their starter, Kevin Gausman, has allowed 12 earned runs in his last three starts spanning 16 1/3 innings. He has pitched worse on the road with a 4.37 away ERA compared to 3.45 at home.

Toronto's best relief pitcher, closer Louis Varland, is unlikely to pitch after going two innings yesterday.

The Tigers rank 10th in runs per game at home averaging 4.7. Toronto averages a full run fewer per game than Detroit when playing on the road.

Tigers starter Jack Flaherty has a high ERA, but the strikeouts have been there for him at 10.5 per 9 Innings.

I am going to ride the hot Rays. They are 16-3 in their last 19 games and back playing in their quirky Tropicana Park, where they are 14-4.

The Marlins are 4-7 in their last 11 games. They just lost, 9-1, to the Twins and Zebby Matthews. That's embarrassing. They lack power ranking 27th in homers.

The starting pitching matchup is Janson Junk vs. Jesse Scholtens, but this is an action play. 

Don't look now, but Tampa Bay has the best record in the American League. The Rays have achieved this by going 15-2 in their last 17 games.

Toronto, on the other hand, has had an American League pennant hangover. The Blue Jays are 18-23. They are 2-6 in their last eight games, rank 23rd in runs scored and have committed the fourth most errors.

I don't see things getting better for the Blue Jays in this Tuesday matchup pitting a healthy and rejuvenated  Shane McClanahan against Patrick Corbin.

McClanahan has not allowed a run during his last three starts spanning 16 2/3 innings. He has a 16-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this time frame.

Corbin isn't the worst starting pitcher in the league as some might believe. But the lefty is way over the hill and fortunate enough to even be a No. 5 type starter for any team. The Blue Jays have multiple starting pitching injuries so they signed Corbin.

Tampa Bay is 10-2 versus southpaw starters this season. The versatile Rays should score at least four runs. They are 20-1 when scoring four or more runs, including winning the past 10 times when that happens.

I want Gavin Williams and the Guardians going at home for me after punchless Minnesota nipped Cleveland, 2-1, in extra innings yesterday.

Williams was dominant after the All-Star break last season going 7-1 with a 2.18 ERA in 12 starts. He finished the second half with 78 strikeouts in 70.1 innings. Williams is pitching well again this season.

Minnesota is averaging 3.2 runs in its last four games. Nearly all of the Twins' hitters have been disappointing so far.

This shapes up as a bullpen game from Minnesota with Andrew Morris getting his first start. The most he has pitched this season in a game is 3 2/3 innings. The Twins have the second highest bullpen ERA at 5.60.

The Orioles have reached their lowest point of the season being five games under .500. They have lost five in a row, outscored by 35 runs during this span.

Don't look for Baltimore to end its losing streak in this spot. The Orioles fly into Florida in the wee hours of the morning after losing on the road to the Yankees, 12-1, last night.

The Marlins have allowed two or fewer runs in four of their last six games. They have Sandy Alcantara on the mound. He is 3-2 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. The Orioles are pitching 37-year-old Chris Bassitt, who is clearly past his better days of being a mediocre pitcher with a 5.46 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. Baltimore remains without its closer, injured Ryan Helsley.

The Marlins have a better record than the Orioles, are home, have superior offensive numbers and a big edge in starting pitchers.

The Twins have turned into the team we all thought they would be - terrible. Minnesota is 3-12 in its last 15 games.

I don't see the situation getting better for Minnesota in this day game Saturday matchup with Dylan Cease pitted against Connor Prielipp, who has a 4.00 ERA in two big league starts.

Cease has been brilliant this season with a 2.87 ERA and an average of 14.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Cease has not allowed a homer in 31.1 innings.

The Twins should have kept Louis Varland. He has become the Blue Jays' closer and is better than any of Minnesota's relief pitchers. Twins relievers have the fourth highest ERA at 5.15. 

This is a great opportunity to get an elite team at a more than fair price against a horrendous road team. The Braves are tied with the Dodgers for the best record in baseball at 20-9. The Tigers are 5-12 on the road.

Atlanta is first in runs scored and also has the lowest team ERA. The Braves are second in batting average. OPS and third in homers. They are averaging 5.7 runs per game.

Detroit averages 4.5 runs a game and is a much worse fielding team in Atlanta. The Tigers are  a league worst minus 12 in runs prevented.

Atlanta starter Martin Perez has a 2.70 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Perez is backed by a Braves bullpen that has the fourth lowest ERA.

Tigers starter Casey Mize has good numbers, too, with a 2.51 ERA and 1.15 ratio. Detroit's bullpen ranks 19th in ERA. Injuries have robbed Mize of a chance to be a star. His velocity is down this season and he has settled into being a middle of the rotation at best starter.

This is not Tarik Skubal  pitching for Detroit. So the spot and price are worth backing Atlanta.

Even with Zack Wheeler back, the Phillies are an auto-fade right now. Not only have the Phillies lost 10 straight games - their longest slump in eight years - but they are facing the hot Braves.

Atlanta is 9-1 in its last 10 games and has Bryce Elder on the mound. Elder is a strong early candidate for comeback player of the year with a 3-1 record, 1.50 ERA, and 0.97 WHIP in 30 innings.

Wheeler is set to make his season debut after missing the last six weeks of the regular season last year, including the postseason, because of thoracic outlet syndrome. Wheeler's velocity is said to be down and he is taking on an Atlanta team that leads the majors in runs and is second in batting average and homers.

The Marlins are 9-6 at home. I prefer their starter, Janson Junk, rather than Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Leahy.

Junk has the lower era and better metrics backing him up. Leahy has a 5.21 ERA and 1.53 WHIP.

Miami's bullpen has the fifth lowest ERA at 3.17. St. Louis relievers have a 5.34 ERA, which ranks 25th.

Miami deserves to be short chalk here and is worth backing.

This is the time and spot to go against the Astros. Buried by injuries to key players, the Astros have lost five in a row being outscored by 19 runs during this time frame.

Seattle has dominated Houston recently winning six of the past seven times. Houston is 1-6 on the road this season.

The Astros are forced to give Lance McCullers Jr. a spot in the starting rotation due to multiple injuries, including one to ace Hunter Brown. McCullers has plenty of rust to get off after missing both 2024 and 2025. He was brutal last season with a 6.51 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in 55 1/3 innings.

McCullers can expect no help from an Astros bullpen that has the highest ERA in the majors at 7.08 and is desperately missing injured closer Josh Hader.

 Seattle starting pitcher Luis Castillo is safe to back when he pitches at home. Castillo had a 2.60 ERA at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park compared to a 4.70 road ERA last year. He has a 2.79 ERA this season. 

When healthy, Cole Ragans is one of the best left-handers in the American League. Ragans is healthy, something he wasn't last year. That puts me on the Royals here at this short lay price.

Cleveland had a losing record against lefty starters last season. Kansas City was 20-13 versus southpaws last year. The Royals are facing Cleveland lefty Joey Cantillo, who is a bottom of the rotation type of starter.

Kansas City ranks in the top 12 in batting average, home runs and OPS. The Royals have far more good hitters than the Guardians with Bobby Witt, Sal Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino and Maikel Garcia.

Cleveland is second from the bottom in runs and batting average. The Guardians are heavily reliant upon superstar third baseman José Ramírez and he is off to a slow start with a .133 batting average and one home run. 

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has earned my full trust. He has been dominant since the beginning of September and been the best pitcher in the playoffs. Yamamoto has allowed just seven earned runs in 55 2/3 innings during the past two  months. The Blue Jays had plenty of problems with Yamamoto's splitter and curveball in Game 2. Yamamoto went the distance, holding Toronto to one run on four hits with eight strikeouts and no walks in a 5-1 victory.

Kevin Gausman gave up three earned runs, including two homers, in 6 2/3 innings while going against Yamamoto this past Saturday. He will oppose him again today. The Blue Jays are 4-9 in Gausman’s last 13 starts since August. 

The Dodgers have managed only three runs in their last two games, both in LA. But they are averaging 4.5 runs in their two games in Toronto.

Both teams are vulnerable in the bullpen. The Dodgers, though, have a reliable closer in Roki Sasaki. Yamamoto is far more capable than Gausman of going deep into the game. 

I have the utmost respect for lefty Blake Snell, but I'm not going to turn down this nice underdog price on the home Blue Jays.

Toronto has one of the best home records in the majors finishing the regular season 54-27 at home. LA's regular season road record was just 41-40.

The Blue Jays lead the league in scoring since the All-Star break averaging 5.6 runs per game. They hit lefties well, too. Toronto batted .264 against southpaws, the third-best mark in the majors. Toronto ranked fourth against lefties in OPS.

Behind Snell is a Dodgers bullpen that can be shaky with a postseason 4.88 ERA..

Blue Jays starter Trey Yesavage has impressed with his strikeout ratio of 11.8 per nine innings. LA's bats could be rusty, too, since the Dodgers last played a week ago.

Pack your bags, you're going to the World Series, Seattle.

I see the Mariners ending the AL Championship Series in this Game 6 in Toronto. The Mariners are 2-0 on the road against the Blue Jays in the series and this away game sets up for them, too.

I give Seattle a strong edge in starting pitching with Logan Gilbert facing rookie Trey Yesavage, who has command issues with a 1.43 WHIP. This was the same starting pitching matchup in Game 2 at Toronto that the Mariners won, 10-3. Seattle scored five earned runs off Yesavage in four innings.

Not only is Gilbert more experienced, but he's a stud when healthy, which he is now. Gilbert's WHIP the past three years is 1.03, 0.89 and 1.08. He is pitching on his normal five day's rest, too. Gilbert has not allowed more than two earned runs during any of his last five road starts.

I like Seattle's bullpen better than Toronto's, too, especially closer Andres Munoz over Jeff Hoffman. I rank Munoz as the best right-handed closer in the American League. Hoffman had a 4.37 ERA and gave up 15 homers, most in the American League for a reliever. Munoz is trustworthy. Hoffman is not.

I give the Mariners the checkmark when it comes to offense, too. Seattle's offense became extremely potent following the trade deadline. The Mariners had the second-highest road slugging and OPS percentages in baseball and ranked third in away batting average.

Toronto could be without George Springer, its second-best offensive player. He is questionable after taking a fastball to the knee in Friday's game.

The Brewers should have pulled out Game 1 in the ninth inning. But they didn't. And now they are in trouble.

While I don't fully trust the Dodgers' bullpen, I do have strong faith in Yoshinobu Yamamoto. I felt he was the second-best pitcher in the National League next to Paul Skenes. Yamamoto has outstanding road numbers - 9-4 record, a 2.13 ERA and a .168 batting average allowed.

The Brewers could manage only two hits last night. Their hitters are unfamiliar with Yamamoto.

Milwaukee starter Freddy Peralta has yielded five earned runs, three homers and five walks in 9 2/3 innings of work in the playoffs.

The  Dodgers are 11-1 in their last 12 games, peaking at just the right time. 

Seattle has one of the best home records in baseball at 52-31. The Mariners own the better lineup and superior bullpen. 

Yet the visiting Tigers are favored based entirely on presumptive 2025 AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal taking the mound. 

Nothing against Skubal, who is deserving of baseball's highest pitching honor. But Seattle has a good starter going, too, in George Kirby. He is facing a lower bar. The Tigers have scored three or fewer runs in 10 of their last 14 games. 

The Mariners are not intimidated by Skubal, having already beaten the Tigers three times this season when Skubal has started. This includes a victory in Game 2 of this series. 

Even if you consider the starting pitching matchup of Jack Flaherty versus Slade Cecconi even, which I don't, the Guardians hold a huge bullpen edge. Cleveland also is the home team and has played far better than the Tigers down the stretch with a 20-5 record in its last 25 games.

Flaherty is 8-15 with a 4.64 ERA. His last two starts were against Cleveland and both were losses. The Tigers lost those two games by a combined score of 9-1.

Cecconi has a lower ERA than Flaherty and a better WHIP.

Cleveland's bullpen had the second-lowest ERA in the American League, while the Tigers' bullpen is mediocre at best. 

I consider this a huge pitching mismatch. Drew Rasmussen has allowed five hits or fewer in 16 straight starts while posting a 2.80 ERA across 10 wins. He’s backed by the superior bullpen.

The Orioles are averaging only 2.4 runs per game in their last seven games.

Baltimore starter Cade Povich has a 5.06 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. 

This is a cheap price to get the Reds and Brady Singer against the Cardinals and Andre Pallante.

Singer is a solid middle-of-the rotation type starter with a 13-10 record, 3.94 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Singer's 13 victories are tied for the fourth-most in the National League.

The Cardinals are 2-6 in their last eight games. They are one of the least powerful teams in the majors ranking 28th in homers and could be without Wilson Contreras for a second straight game. Contreras leads the Cardinals in home runs and RBIs. He left Monday's game with right biceps tightness.

St. Louis has scored three or fewer runs in eight of its last 11 games.

Pallante it's one of the least effective starters in the National League. His bad numbers speak for themselves: 6-14 record, 5.34 ERA, which goes up to 5.67 when he pitches at home, and a 1.43 WHIP. He has only 104 strikeouts in 155 innings.