College Football Free Picks - Winning College Football Picks Against the Spread

Stephen Nover MLB Money Lines Picks

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
10-25-19	Astros v. Nationals +131	Top	4-1	Loss	-100	26 h 2 m	Show
I can't - and won't - pass up a plus price offering on the red-hot Nationals. Not only is Washington the home team, where there will be no DH, but the Nationals are a blazing 18-2 in their last 20 games. They have won eight games in a row. The Nationals are 13-1 in their past 14 home games. Yet, despite these impressive streaks, Washington is the underdog. I don't get it. Houston is 2-3 on the road in the postseason. The Nationals beat Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander. They can defeat Zach Greinke, too. I like Greinke and this isn't a fade on him as it is a play on the hot Nationals, who have scored 17 runs in the first two games of this series. Greinke, though, is 36. He's not an "A" pitcher anymore in my book. I rate him as a solid "B" being more craft and guile than blowout stuff like he used to be. Greinke has a far bigger name than Washington starter Anibal Sanchez. It's a mistake to believe Sanchez takes a backseat to Greinke in the postseason, though. Sanchez has proven to be a big-play pitcher. He has a 2.57 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 56 postseason innings with 60 strikeouts. Sanchez nearly threw a no-hitter against the Cardinals in Game 1 of the NLCS during his previous start. He has a 0.71 ERA in the playoffs this season. The Astros have a deeper bullpen than the Nationals, who are vulnerable in middle relief. But the Nationals' two best relievers, Sean Doolittle and Daniel Hudson, are rested. No DH is a plus for the Nationals, who are used to playing by those rules. The Astros now have to decide if they are going to sit out Yordan Alvarez, or start him in the outfield taking a risk with his questionable fielding compared to Josh Reddick. The Astros haven't won since the news about assistant general manager Brandon Taubman's behavior toward a group of female reporters in the Houston clubhouse following the Astros' game-clinching series victory against the Yankees. This incident has caused MLB to investigate and is a distraction for the Astros. Bottom line is there just too much value not to ride the Nationals again.
10-14-19	Cardinals +121 v. Nationals	Top	1-8	Loss	-100	18 h 38 m	Show
I have the utmost respect for Stephen Strasburg. But I like Jack Flaherty better. I believe there is value getting Flaherty and the Cardinals - in a desperate spot down 0-2 - at an underdog price. Yes, St. Louis is on the road now. But the Cardinals have beaten the Nationals five of the past six times as a visitor. Yes, the Cardinals aren't hitting. But the Nationals aren't exactly tearing the cover off the ball having scored five runs in the first two games of the series. Yes, Strasburg is a stud pitcher. But Flaherty was the best pitcher in the National League during August and September with a 0.91 ERA following All-Star break. Flaherty has stayed hot in the postseason with a 2.77 ERA in 13 innings. St. Louis is 11-5 in his last 16 starts.
10-11-19	Nationals v. Cardinals -120		2-0	Loss	-120	19 h 55 m	Show
The Nationals have three outstanding starting pitchers. Anibal Sanchez isn't one of them. It's Sanchez who draws the start in Game 1 of the NL Championship Series today. He's backed up by one of the worst bullpens in the majors. And the Nationals won't be resorting to using Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin in relief when they have to dip into their bullpen. Not with those three studs drawing heavy action in the Nationals' playoff series win against the Dodgers. The underdog Nationals took out the Dodgers winning the pivotal Game 5 in extra innings this past Wednesday in LA. Washington still may be hung over with such a short turnaround opening this series in St. Louis. Washington has lost seven of its last nine games to St. Louis. I prefer Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas to Sanchez. Mikolas is a solid No. 3 type starter, while Sanchez is more bottom of the rotation. Mikolas has a 2.98 ERA at home this season. St. Louis is 16-7 in Mikolas' last 23 home starts. Sanchez is 2-4 with 3.44 career ERA in eight career starts versus St. Louis.
10-04-19	Cardinals -123 v. Braves	Top	0-3	Loss	-123	14 h 25 m	Show
The Cardinals have been red-hot during the past two months winning 34 of their last 50 games, including seven of their last nine road contests. Jack Flaherty has been a major cog during the Cardinals' stretch drive. There hasn't been a better pitcher during August and September than Flaherty. He is 7-2 with a 0.91 ERA during his past 15 starts. He has a 0.41 ERA in his past three starts and a 1.48 day time ERA on the season. All this bodes well for the Cardinals, who knocked off the Braves by scoring a combined six runs in the eighth and ninth inning to win, 7-6, in Game 1 of the series on Thursday. It was the Cardinals' 10th win in their last 13 road games versus Atlanta. The Braves have outstanding young talent. But some of that talent needs more maturity and is in a rough bounce back spot after such a tough home loss in the series opener. Atlanta starter Mike Foltynewicz has not fared well historically against the Cardinals with a 3-4 mark and 7.64 ERA in seven career starts.
10-03-19	Nationals v. Dodgers -165		0-6	Win	100	9 h 38 m	Show
I want the Dodgers going for me in this opening National League playoff series. LA is rested, has the better offense and bullpen. I also like the starting pitching matchup from a Dodgers perspective, too. Walker Buehler has been dominant when pitching at Dodger Stadium going 6-1 with a 2.86 ERA there. The Dodgers think so much of Buehler they started him ahead of Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers are 15-3 when Buehler has pitching the opener of a series. Corbin has been much better at home than on the road where his away record is 6-5 with a 4.18 ERA compared to 8-2 with a 2.40 ERA at Nationals Park. Corbin is squaring off against an LA squad that set an NL record with 279 home runs and led the NL in runs.
09-25-19	Brewers -138 v. Reds	Top	9-2	Win	100	18 h 9 m	Show
No team is hotter than Milwaukee. The Brewers are a major league-best 18-4 this month. They are 16-2 in their last 18 games. The price and pitching matchup is worth it to ride the Brewers again today. Jordan Lyles has been outstanding since coming to the Brewers on July 29. Milwaukee is 9-1 in Lyles' 10 starts. Lyles has a 2.35 ERA with the Brewers and is in excellent form with a 1.80 ERA during his past three starts. The Reds are averaging only 2.3 runs in their last eight games. The Reds are dealing with a virus that has affected several Cincinnati players, including infielder Freddy Galvis. The Brewers are highly motivated and have tremendous momentum. If they win this game, they clinch a wild-card berth. The Reds just want the season to end. They are giving Tyler Mahle an extended look. The results haven't been good. Mahle, who is slated to start here, hasn't won since May. He's 2-11 on the season with a 4.93 ERA. Mahle's ERA in his past three starts is 6.59.
09-23-19	Cardinals v. Diamondbacks +117	Top	9-7	Loss	-100	19 h 45 m	Show
The Cardinals were in a party mood after clinching their first playoff berth in four years after sweeping the Cubs with a 3-2 road win on Sunday. So the Cardinals might not have their full focus traveling West to take on the host Diamondbacks tonight. The pitching matchup is Adam Wainwright versus lefty Alex Young, who the Cardinals have never faced before. Wainwright is a brilliant 9-3 with a 2.03 ERA when pitching at home. However, his numbers are far worse on the road where he's 4-6 with a 6.03 ERA in 14 away starts. St. Louis is 1-7 the last eight times Wainwright has gone against a winning team on the road. The Cardinals are 21 games above .500 when facing a righthanded starter, but just 16-15 versus southpaw starters. Young is a rookie, but he has been a rock for Arizona holding 12 of his 15 opponents to three earned runs or fewer. He has a 2.30 ERA in his past six starts.
09-22-19	Nationals v. Marlins +195		3-5	Win	195	11 h 25 m	Show
The Marlins are such big underdogs in this spot largely due to reputation and the Nationals pushing for a playoff spot. But there are a lot of circumstances here that point to an outstanding value play backing the home underdog. Washington has won the first two games of this series. This is the Nationals' final regular season road game. They return home to host the Phillies on Monday, closing out the season with eight home games. So the Nationals might not have their full concentration while also taking the Marlins too lightly in this Sunday get away day spot. The Nationals are pitching their No. 5 rotation guy, Austin Voth. He has a 3.77 ERA on the road this season. Washington is 1-5 in Voth's last six starts. Pablo Lopez starts for Miami. He's been a much better pitcher at home where his ERA is 3.22. Lopez also has a 2.76 ERA in day games. He's coming off a Monday performance where he held the Diamondbacks to three runs on five hits in six innings. The Marlins do not have a good bullpen. However, the Nationals have the highest bullpen ERA in the majors at 5.79.
09-17-19	Mariners +123 v. Pirates	Top	6-0	Win	123	16 h 24 m	Show
Mitch Keller is the Pirates' top pitching prospect. He has yet to show it, though. Pressed into service due to the Pirates' multiple pitching injuries, Keller is struggling to solve big league hitters with an 8.29 ERA and 1.87 WHIP. He has a 10.97 ERA in his past three outings. Keller has given up at least one homer in four of his last five starts. The Mariners rank ninth in homers and expect to activate power-hitting outfielder Domingo Santana from the injured list in time for this game. Santana is second on the Mariners in RBI's. I'm not buying Keller as a favorite in this matchup of two bad teams. The Mariners are throwing their No. 1 pitcher, lefty Marco Gonzalez. If you discount his recent starts against the powerful Astros, Gonzaez has surrendered three or fewer runs in seven of his last eight starts. He was solid in his past start, a 5-3 home victory against the Reds this past Wednesday. Gonzalez held Cincinnati to two runs on five hits in seven innings. Pittsburgh is 14-25 versus lefty starters this season. Seattle is 4-2 in its last six games. The Pirates are home for the first time in nine days. They just were swept three games by the Cubs getting outscored by 32 runs in that series. Pittsburgh has dropped 19 of its last 27 home games.
09-12-19	Braves -125 v. Phillies	Top	5-9	Loss	-125	16 h 28 m	Show
If it weren't for Washington's Dave Martinez, I would select Philadephia's Gabe Kapler as the worst manager in the National League if not all of baseball. The Phillies haven't made the playoffs since 2011. Kabler hasn't changed that in the two years he has been manager despite management getting him a lot of talent. Kapler's bizarre in-game decisions, poor bullpen management and lack of communication have hindered the Phillies. So if I can find a reason to fade the Phillies, I usually will. In this matchup there are several major factors working against Philadelphia, beginning with the starting pitching matchup of Julio Teheran versus lefty Drew Smyly. Teheran is very reliable. The Braves are 16-7 in his last 23 starts. During these past 23 starts, Teheran has a 2.67 ERA. He's allowed only three runs during his past four starts spanning 25 innings. Opposing batters are hitting just .167 against him during this time frame. It took a while, but the Braves' high quality relievers they picked up at the trade deadline have settled down and are pitching well. Atlanta is one of the hottest teams in the majors having won 19 of its last 23 games. The Braves have won 67 percent of their games, too, when drawing a lefty starter this season going 22-11. Smyly was terrible with Texas this year going 1-5 with an 8.42 ERA and 1.91 WHIP. He pitched better initially since coming to the Phillies on July 21. But aside from his last start against the Mets this past Saturday, Smyly has reverted back to his terrible American League form giving up 21 earned runs in his previous six games. Smyly failed to go six innings in any of those six outings before his last start. The chance to back the hot Braves with the stronger pitcher at a reasonable price has me taking Atlanta.
09-11-19	Braves -124 v. Phillies	Top	3-1	Win	100	10 h 24 m	Show
There is a class and pitching difference here that makes this a worthy investment to back the Braves. Dallas Keuchel is a "B" level pitcher, who has been throwing like his past Cy Young days. The lefty is 4-0 with a 0.87 ERA during his last five starts spanning 31 innings. The Phillies are 16-22 against lefty starters and going with Zach Eflin, who is a bottom of the rotation type starter at best. Eflin has really struggled against Atlanta this year surrendering 12 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. Philadelphia can't beat a good team when Elfin starts. The Phillies are 2-12 the past 14 times Elfin has faced an above .500 opponent. Atlanta has been one of the hottest teams in baseball winning 18 of its last 22 games and seven of its past nine.
09-09-19	Cubs v. Padres +130		10-2	Loss	-100	11 h 1 m	Show
The Cubs and their starting pitcher, Kyle Hendricks, play much worse on the road. Chicago is 13 games below .500 away from Wrigly Field. Hendricks has a 1.77 ERA and 0.77 WHIP at home, but is 4-7 on the road with a 5.20 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. The Cubs have lost six of the Hendrick's last eight away starts. San Diego starter Cal Quantrill isn't in good form. However, he shut out the Cubs on two hits in 5 2/3 innings when he last faced them on July 21. Quantrill struck out six and did not walk a batter. Hendricks started that game for the Cubs. San Diego won, 5-1. The Cubs could be down four key players. Star shortstop Javier Baez and closer Craig Kimbrel are both out. Infielder Addison Russell isn't likely to play either after getting hit in the head with a pitch yesterday. Kris Bryant missed Sunday's game with a sore knee. So he's questionable.
09-08-19	Blue Jays +185 v. Rays		3-8	Loss	-100	4 h 58 m	Show
There is too much value to pass up on this game. Toronto starter Jacob Waguespack has had some good moments. Just three starts ago he held the powerful Dodgers to no runs in seven innings allowing just one hit and one walk with five strikeouts. He has a respectable 3.97 ERA. Tyler Glasnow will be making his first appearance for the Rays since May 10. He's been out this long due to a strained forearm. Glasnow has a very high ceiling, but he figures to be rusty and only pitch around two innings turning this into a bullpen game for the Rays. That puts a lot of randomness into the equation and makes the Blue Jays an enticing underdog at this huge plus price.
09-08-19	Diamondbacks v. Reds -124		3-4	Win	100	4 h 57 m	Show
Arizona is playing well, but the Diamondbacks are overachievers. They are not some powerhouse and they are at a pitching disadvantage here. Diamondbacks starter Mike Leake is 0-5 with a 4.75 ERA in eight starts against his former team the Reds. The best thing you can say about Leake is that he is an innings-eater. I prefer Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani, who pitches better at home and has a 2.16 ERA during his past four starts.
09-06-19	Yankees -123 v. Red Sox		1-6	Loss	-123	5 h 35 m	Show
Face it Red Sox nation. This isn't your season. The price is right to back the superior road Yankees, who despite multiple injuries own the best record in baseball. The Yankees have dominated the Red Sox this season winning 11 of 15 games. New York is hot, too, winners of eight of its last 10. New York has a rested bullpen, which Boston doesn't, and has a much better starter going in a pitching matchup of Domingo German versus journeyman Jhoulys Chacin. German is 17-3. He's given up three earned runs or less in nine of his last 11 starts. Chacin was released by the Brewers after posting a 3-10 mark and 5.79 ERA in 19 starts this season. Chacin last started back on July 24.
09-04-19	Mets v. Nationals -117	Top	8-4	Loss	-117	10 h 25 m	Show
Less than 24 hours after suffering their most brutal loss of the season - and one that realistically dents any playoff hopes - the Mets must play the Nationals on the road again with this day time start. The Nationals took out Jacob deGrom and the Mets by rallying for seven runs in the ninth inning to pull out a highly improbable 11-10 victory against the Mets on Tuesday night. Before this game, teams with a six-run lead in the ninth were unbeaten this season at 274-0. That loss was the Mets' eighth in their last 11 games and puts them five games behind the Cubs for the last wild card spot in the NL. The defeat also might have sealed the fate of Mets manager Mickey Callaway. The shell shocked Mets are in no shape mentally to face the Nationals in such a short turnaround. Washington is red-hot going 20-6 inits last 26 games. The pitching matchup is Zach Wheeler versus Anibal Sanchez. Wheeler is 0-2 with a 7.94 ERA in four starts against Washington this season. The Nationals have scored seven or more runs in 13 of their last 16 games. Sanchez has a 3.80 ERA compared to Wheeler's 4.41 ERA. Sanchez is 8-0 with a 3.21 ERA in his last 16 starts.
08-31-19	Twins -130 v. Tigers	Top	7-10	Loss	-130	11 h 38 m	Show
The Tigers are home. That's great news for the Twins since Detroit is 17-47 at home. The Twins are one of the better teams in baseball. They could break the single-season record for home runs during this series. That's how powerful they are. At this low road price, the Twins are a bargain versus this opponent. The pitching matchup is Martin Perez versus Matt Boyd. These two just faced each other six days ago in Minnesota. The Twins got to Boyd for seven earned runs in six innings, while Perez held the Tigers to two earned runs in six innings. Boyd still is getting some respect from the oddsmaker. He's perceived as Detroit's top pitcher. This isn't saying much. Boyd also hasn't been respectable like he was earlier in the season. He's allowed 19 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 21 innings. Boyd's ERA during his last 13 starts is a fat 6.05. He's also given up an average of 2.6 homers per nine innings in those last 13 outings. The Twins' power hitters should feast on him. Perez, by contrast, has allowed just four earned in his last three starts spanning 17 innings. The Twins' bullpen has been very good this month. Detroit has lost six in a row, averaging 2.8 runs per game during this losing streak. The Twins have won six straight. They are averaging 8.6 runs a game during their win streak. So, yeah, at this bargain price the Twins are worth laying road chalk.
08-30-19	Mets v. Phillies -131		11-5	Loss	-131	17 h 30 m	Show
There aren't many things the Phillies can count out. The one person they can rely on is Aaron Nola, who takes the mound here against the Mets. Nola is 6-3 with a 2.27 ERA in his last 13 starts. He has allowed two or fewer runs in nine of those 13 starts. Philadelphia is a dominant 30-11 (73%) in Nola's last 41 home starts. The Phillies have defeated the Mets seven of the past eight times when Nola has gone against them. The Mets are going with Zach Wheeler, who is back in bad form with a 6.75 ERA in his past three starts. New York has lost six straight games. The Mets have scored two or fewer runs in five of their last seven games.
08-27-19	Indians -131 v. Tigers	Top	10-1	Win	100	17 h 33 m	Show
If you can't beat righthanders you're not going to have a very good record. Detroit has the lowest winning percentage in baseball. One reason for this is the Tigers losing 45 of the past 55 times against a righty starter. Cleveland is going with righty Adam Plutko. He's settled into being a solid No. 4 type pitcher for Cleveland with a 3.53 ERA in his past six starts. The Indians are 11-4 in Plutko's last 15 starts. The Tigers are going with Spencer Turnbull, who hit the wall a long time ago. Detroit is 1-10 in Turnbull's last 11 home starts. The Indians were idle Monday giving them an extra day to stew about a tough 9-8 Sunday loss to the Royals. Cleveland should take out its frustrations on its favorite patsy as Detroit is 1-12 versus the Indians this season.
08-26-19	Dodgers v. Padres +147	Top	3-4	Win	147	22 h 45 m	Show
I don't normally go against the Dodgers. But they are 34-28 on the road. That's certainly respectable, but nothing like their mind-boggling 52-18 home record. The Dodgers have trouble when facing Eric Lauer. San Diego is 5-1 in Lauer's six career starts versus the Dodgers. Laurer has a 1.72 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in these appearances. The Dodgers are batting only .175 against Lauer this season. Lauer has a 3.10 home ERA on the season. The Padres are 5-2 in his past seven starts at Petco Park. The Dodgers have been in a scoring slump scoring three or fewer runs in seven of their last eight games. Dodgers rookie Dustin May has a high ceiling. But he's up-and-down right now. May last pitched eight days ago in relief. He gave up four runs on three hits and a walk in two innings versus the Braves. The Padres went up against May on Aug. 2 getting to him for four runs - three of which were earned - and nine hits in 5 2/3 innings. The Padres have already set a franchise-record for home runs in a season with 190.
08-25-19	Braves +111 v. Mets		2-1	Win	111	11 h 44 m	Show
The Braves are the superior team. Steven Matz is a strong home pitcher for the Mets. But I like Dallas Keuchel and the hot Braves in an underdog role. Atlanta has won seven in a row. They have won 12 more games than the Mets. The Braves rank sixth in scoring. The Mets, by contrast, rate 16th in runs.
08-23-19	Nationals v. Cubs -121		9-3	Loss	-121	13 h 29 m	Show
If the Cubs played all of their games at Wrigley Field they would rank with the Astros, Yankees and Dodgers as a super power. Chicago is 44-19 at home. The price is low enough to back the Cubs at home in a pitching matchup of Anibal Sanchez versus Jon Lester. The Cubs have won 74 percent of Lester's last 61 games at Wrigley Field. Lester looked back to normal during his last start going six shutout innings against the Pirates on the road last Saturday. The southpaw has a 3.13 day time ERA. The Nationals are just one game above .500 when facing a lefty starter. Sanchez may be hitting the wall. He's given up eight runs during his last two starts spanning nine innings. Sanchez has allowed 15 hits and five walks during these past nine innings. Chicago has rested Craig Kimbrel to close, while the Natoinals lack a closer with Sean Doolittle, their best reliever, on the DL.
08-21-19	Indians +141 v. Mets		3-4	Loss	-100	16 h 16 m	Show
Sorry, but I'm not sold on the Mets as a serious playoff contender. Not when they aren't pitching Jacob deGrom or Noah Syndergaard, which is the case here. New York is 19-5 in its last 24 games. But 16 of those victories have come against the Padres, Pirates, White Sox, Marlins and Royals. Those five teams are a combined 111 games under .500! The Indians have gone on a second-half surge to go 22 games above .500. They are 16-6 in their last 22 road games. Marcus Stroman goes for the Mets. New York is 3-0 in Stroman's three starts. However, Stroman has a 5.17 ERA in those outings. The Indians are averaging 6.2 runs in their last nine games. Adam Plutko is a bottom of the rotation starter for Cleveland. But he's decent. He just beat the Yankees - a far superior offensive team to the Mets - last Wednesday limiting the Yankees to three runs in six innings. Cleveland is 8-2 the past 10 times Plutko has started.
08-21-19	Angels v. Rangers -121	Top	7-8	Win	100	16 h 19 m	Show
I don't know if this is a case of giving Patrick Sandoval too much respect, or All-Star Mike Minor getting too little respect. It's likely a case of both. Nonetheless, the bottom line here is the Rangers are underpriced. Minor is worthy of being a much stronger favorite pitching at home against the Angels, who aside from superstar Mike Trout just aren't very good. Minor is 3-1 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.19 WHIP during his last four starts. The lefty is 5-3 with a 3.25 ERA in a dozen home starts. He owns a 2.08 ERA and 3-0 mark the past two years in five starts against the Angels. LA is 17-25 versus southpaw starters on the season. The Angels also have dropped nine of their last 12 road matchups. Sandoval is one of those young Angels starters being force fed to major league hitters due to injuries and the untimely death of Tyler Skaggs. The lefty has a 5.79 ERA. He isn't ready, in my view, to be in a big league starting rotation. The Rangers are 6-2 the past eight times they've gone against a lefty starter.
08-19-19	Nationals -120 v. Pirates	Top	13-0	Win	100	19 h 55 m	Show
The Orioles and Tigers are the two worst teams in baseball. Since the All-Star break, the Pirates can join those two teams in the discussion of who is the worst. Pittsburgh is 7-27 post All-Star break. Washington is 9-3 in its last 12 games. The Nationals have the third-best record in the National League. Yet we have a very low opening line lay price for the Nationals. Why is that since the Nationals clearly are at least two levels higher than Pittsburgh? Trevor Williams gets the start for the Pirates. But that doesn't answer the question since Williams hasn't been very good with a 6.92 ERA in his last seven starts spanning 39 innings. The Nationals are swinging extremely hot bats averaging 9.4 runs during their past seven games. The answer then may lie in who Washington is starting on the mound: Joe Ross. His season numbers show a 5.91 ERA. That is misleading, however. Ross has been the Nationals' top pitcher if you go by the past three starts. Ross has fixed his mechanics and made key adjustments. These changes have helped him go 3-0 with a 0.50 ERA in his past three starts spanning 18 innings. The Pirates have the better closer, Felipe Vazquez. The Nationals have upgraded their middle and setup relief, though. It's doubtful if the Pirates will even get to use Vazquez. Pittsburgh is averaging only two runs per game during its last four games. It's also a bad situational spot for the Pirates as they had to play in the Sunday night game, which was played in Williamsport, Pa., against the Cubs in the MLB Little League Classic.
08-16-19	White Sox +115 v. Angels	Top	7-2	Win	115	20 h 48 m	Show
Injuries and the untimely death of Tyler Skaggs have left the Angels force-feeding young unprove pitching prospects. Southpaw Patrick Sandoval falls into that category. Sandoval draws the start here against All-Star Lucas Giolito. Sandoval has a 5.59 ERA in 9 2/3 innings. This will be his second big league start. He isn't ready to be pitching in the majors. The Angels are 4-10 in their last 14 games. They have a burned out bullpen and are extremely weak in the middle infield with underrated shortstop Andrelton Simmons out. Giolito hit a bump in a couple of July starts, but is back on track with a 2.84 ERA in his last three starts in which he has fanned 30 batters in 19 innings. Chicago is 8-3 in Giolito's last 11 road starts. The White Sox are 12 games under .500 on the year. Hence, the Angels opening a favorite despite the huge starting pitching disparity. However, the White Sox are much better against lefthanded starters. Chicago's record versus lefties this season: 23-18. The White Sox are 6-1 the past seven times they've faced a southpaw starter.
08-15-19	White Sox +162 v. Angels		7-8	Loss	-100	21 h 54 m	Show
The oddsmaker is overlooking how well Reynaldo Lopez has been pitching and how strong the White Sox have been against lefthanded starters by making the Angels such a big favorite in a pitching matchup of Lopez versus southpaw Andrew Heaney. The White Sox are 11 games under .500 on the season. However, they are 23-17 against southpaw starters, including winning the past six times they have faced them. Heaney has been inconsistent and is rusty. This is only his second start in nearly a month as he been sidelined by shoulder inflammation. Heaney pitched 3 2/3 innings against the Red Sox in his last outing this past Saturday giving up one earned run. The Angels are vulnerable in the bullpen. The White Sox are 7-4 in their last 11 games and off a 13-9 victory against Houston. Lopez has been one of the best pitchers post All-Star break but remains below the radar. He has a 2.13 ERA in his last six starts surrendering just one homer during this span. Chicago is 5-1 in Lopez's past six road starts.
08-14-19	Mets v. Braves -131		4-6	Win	100	18 h 54 m	Show
This matchup pits a battle of lefty starters, Steven Matz versus Dallas Keuchel. I want Keuchel and the Braves going for me. Atlanta is 17-10 versus southpaw starters, including winning 11 of the last 16 times when drawing a lefthanded starter. The Mets have a losing record when going up against a lefty starter. Keuchel won't lack motivation coming off his worst as a Brave. He was racked for eight runs on 10 hits in only 3 2/3 innings this past Thursday against the Marlins in Miami. The prideful Keuchel is much better than that. He has made four home starts for the Braves and has a 2.96 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in those games. The Mets have never faced him. New York also is likely to be without second baseman Jeff McNeil, the second-leading hitter in the NL. McNeil suffered a leg injury on Tuesday night. Matz has a 6.23 ERA in three starts against the Braves this year The Mets have lost five of Matz's last six away starts.
08-13-19	Mets v. Braves -123		3-5	Win	100	18 h 8 m	Show
The Braves are better than the Mets. The Braves are home and I don't see Zach Wheeler having any edge on lefty Max Fried. So at this price, the Braves are a bargain. Wheeler has been pitching well. I like him. But he's not in the Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard talent level. Wheeler has a 4.50 ERA in two starts versus Atlanta this season. Fried has posted a solid 3.32 ERA in his past four starts with 25 strikeouts in 21 2/3 innings during this span. The Mets hold a losing record versus southpaw starters. Atlanta does have bullpen concerns. But so do the Mets. Edwin Diaz has an 11.12 ERA in his last six appearances. The Braves are 6-2 in their last eight games against the Mets.
08-13-19	Mariners +151 v. Tigers		11-6	Win	151	18 h 57 m	Show
Anytime the Tigers are laying this kind of price, I'm at the window fading them. Detroit has lost 41 of its last 51 games. They are an MLB-worst 16-41 at Comerica Park. Ty Cobb would be rolling around in his grave if he could witness how bad these Tigers are. The Tigers are big chalk because supposedly they have their best pitcher, Matthew Boyd, going while Seattle is pitching Yusei Kikuchi, who hasn't won during his past seven starts. Kikuchi pitched well, though, in his last outing holding the Padres to one run on four hits in five innings with eight strikeouts this past Wednesday. Boyd was terrible during his last start getting rocked for five runs in just 2 2/3 innings against the Royals this past Thursday. Boyd yielded six hits, including three homers in that loss. Detroit has dropped 13 of Boyd's last 16 starts. Seattle, like the rest of the American League, knows how to beat the Tigers. Seattle is 17-4 in its past 21 games versus Detroit.
08-11-19	Indians v. Twins -143	Top	7-3	Loss	-143	13 h 45 m	Show
The Twins are 25-10 the past 35 times Jose Berriors pitches at home. One of those losses, though, occurred the last time Berrios pitched at Target Field. That came this past Tuesday against Atlanta. The Braves blasted Berriors scoring nine runs on him in fewer than six innings. It was one of Berrios' worst days of his career. Prior to that, however, Berrios had gone 12 straight starts without surrendering more than three earned runs. He is an elite pitcher and extremely reliable. His home ERA is 3.15. His day time ERA is 3.20 I trust Berrios to come back strong following that rare humiliation. He's facing rookie Aaron Civale, who will be making back-to-back big league starts for the first time. This will be the toughest test Civale has faced. Minnesota ranks first in the majors in homers and is second in runs. The Indians, by contrast, rate 20th in homers and 19th in runs.
08-10-19	A's v. White Sox +159	Top	2-3	Win	159	18 h 50 m	Show
Reynaldo Lopez is flying below the radar screen. Tanner Roark should never be a favorite in this high range. But the two together and you have a strong underdog value play on the White Sox. Lopez has been one of the hotter post All-Star break pitchers going 2-1 with a 2.56 ERA in his last five starts. Lopez has 34 strikeouts in 31 2/3 innings during this span. Lopez has tamed the A's during his career, too, with a 1.50 lifetime ERA against them in two starts. Roark is a true mediocrity with a 7-7 mark and 4.14 ERA. Oakland has a losing record in his last seven road contests.
08-07-19	White Sox -105 v. Tigers	Top	8-1	Win	100	11 h 16 m	Show
The 1899 Cleveland Spiders. The 1962 New York Mets. The 2019 Detroit Tigers. Yes the Tigers are getting to be historically that bad having lost 30 of their last 35 home games. Detroit is 9-48 in its last 57 games against a righty starter and draw a hot Ivan Nova here. Nova is pitching his best ball of the season and maybe of his career with a 0.90 ERA during his last three starts. He's held the Marlins, Twins and Phillies to two earned runs in 20 innings during this span giving up 11 hits and three walks. The Tigers are second-to-last in runs, have only one decent starter and a terrible bullpen. The result is the worst record in baseball at 33-77. Lefty Tyler Alexander gets the call for Detroit. He has a 4.50 ERA. The White Sox are at their best versus southpaws compiling a 21-17 mark against them. Chicago is 5-1 in its last six road games when facing a lefty starter.
08-06-19	Braves v. Twins -150		12-7	Loss	-150	17 h 43 m	Show
On paper this may look like a close matchup. In reality it's not. The Twins are much the superior team and have a huge starting pitching edge. These factors are enough to justify laying this price. Atlanta is just 8-11 in its last 19 games. I don't see the Braves defeating Jose Berrios in Minnesota. Berrios has cemented his status as an elite pitcher. He's in tremendous form, too, with a 1.82 ERA in four starts following the All-Star break. Berrios has the third-lowest ERA in the American League at 2.80 and sixth-best WHIP in the AL at 1.10. The Twins have won 25 of Berrios' last 34 home starts, a winning percentage of 74 percent. While Berrios has lived up to his vast potential, Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz has gone far downhill after making the All-Star team last year. Bothered by a sore elbow, Foltynewicz has been terrible with a 2-5 record and 6.37 ERA. Atlanta is 4-9 in his last 13 starts. Foltynewicz has been so bad he was sent to the minors. Now he's back up. I remain highly skeptical. Foltynewicz has been prone to the long ball surrendering 16 bombs in 59 1/3 innings. The Twins lead the majors in homers and are on pace to easily surpass their franchise best for homers in a season. The Braves picked up several prominent relief pitchers at the trade deadling, including Shane Greene. But so far they have looked terrible.
08-06-19	A's +129 v. Cubs	Top	11-4	Win	129	17 h 41 m	Show
We have a pair of lefty starters going here - Brett Anderson versus Jon Lester. Anderson has been solid on the road while Lester usually is tough at Wrigley Field. Oakland, though, is 19-8 this season versus southpaw starters, including winning five of its past six away games against them. Anderson's road numbers are a very respectable 5-2 record with a 3.49 ERA. He has limited 11 of his last 13 opponents to three earned runs or fewer. The A's have won Anderson's last six away outings. The Cubs hold a losing mark going against lefthanders. They also have a cluster injury situation in their bullpen and are without a closer. Chicago is minus injured catcher Wilson Contreras, too.
08-05-19	Phillies -102 v. Diamondbacks	Top	7-3	Win	100	19 h 10 m	Show
I see the Phillies bouncing back against the Diamondbacks after losing at home to the White Sox on Sunday. Philadelphia is 7-1 the past eight times following a defeat. The Phillies have a pitching edge here both at starter in the bullpen where Arizona is vulnerable in middle relief and doesn't have a closer. Archie Bradley got the save for Arizona on Sunday but he had to log two innings and 28 pitches to do it. Arizona starter Merrill Kelly has been bad for more than a month. The Diamondbacks are 0-6 in his last six starts. Kelly has been racked for 14 earned runs in his last two starts spanning just 8 1/3 innings. He's been tagged for five homers during this short time frame. Phillies starter Vince Velasquez is pitching well giving up two earned runs in his last two starts spanning 10 2/3 innings. The righty has struck out 15 during this span. The Diamondbacks have a losing record against righthanded starters.
08-05-19	White Sox -118 v. Tigers		7-4	Win	100	7 h 49 m	Show
It doesn't take much for me to want to fade the Tigers. A good price and a return to form of Lucas Giolito are enough to get me involved here with the White Sox. Chicago just took two of three from the Phillies in Philadelphia. The White Sox have their bats going again. Giolito displayed his All-Star form giving up just one run on three hits in seven innings during his last start against the Mets. Previous to that performance, Giolito was 0-3 with a 5.65 ERA in four starts. The start against the Mets was huge for Giolito because he said he was back in rhythm and had made key adjustments. The Tigers have the worst offense in the majors. They are 14-55 in their last 69 games and have lost 29 of their past 33 games at Comerica Park. Spencer Turnbull will be starting for Detroit and he'll be on a pitch count since he's coming off IL. The Tigers' lone reliable reliever, Shane Greene, was traded to the Braves.
08-04-19	White Sox +146 v. Phillies		10-5	Win	146	5 h 43 m	Show
This has been a super competitive series with each of the first two games decided by one run. White Sox starter Reynaldo Lopez has been pitching his best ball posting a 2.05 ERA ERA since the All-Star break. Opponents are hitting just .194 against him during this span. The Phillies are hoping they caught lightning in a bottle with lefty Drew Smyly. He's given up one run in 13 innings during his two starts with Philadelphia since coming from the Rangers. I don't believe Smyly suddenly has turned good. He was 1-5 with an 8.42 ERA with the Rangers. The White Sox are at their best against lefty pitchers compiling a 19-17 mark versus southpaw starters.
08-03-19	Cardinals v. A's -130	Top	3-8	Win	100	14 h 26 m	Show
Mike Fiers may be the most underrated pitcher in the American League especially when he pitches at home where he is 6-2 with a 2.61 ERA. Fiers hasn't given up more than three earned runs in a game during his last 17 starts. Only Gerrit Cole has had a lower ERA in the American League since April 26 than Fiers. The Cardinals are playing well. However, the Oakland Coliseum is a tough place for visitors especially those who don't play there very often. Better teams than the Cardinals have gotten tripped up playing in the spacious and weird configurations of Oakland Coliseum. It's not a fluke the A's have won 11 of their last 15 home interleague games. St. Louis also is without three of its key players as Yadier Molina, Marcell Ozuna and Matt Carpenter are all injured. The Cardinals need a strong starting pitcher here and I don't see Dakota Hudson fitting that profile. He is bottom-of-the-rotation quality with a 4.63 ERA in his last seven starts.
08-03-19	Blue Jays v. Orioles +116		4-6	Win	116	12 h 21 m	Show
The Blue Jays gutted their team at the trade deadline. So I'm not making much of their five-game win streak. It has come against the Royals and Orioles. I like the home 'dog Orioles here because of the starting matchup. It's converted reliever Thomas Pannone against Dylan Bundy. Bundy has a strong history versus the Bule Jays with a 3.23 lifetime ERA in 12 appearances. He's 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA against Toronto this season. Pannone has a 5.98 ERA. This is fifth start of the year. He has been at his worst on the road where he is 0-3 with a 7.89 ERA.
08-02-19	Giants v. Rockies -130		4-5	Win	100	11 h 54 m	Show
Step to the head of the line if you knew the Giants finished with the best record in July. San Francisco went 19-6 last month. Regression is coming, though, because the Giants aren't nearly that tough. The Giants are in trouble in this matchup having to go with Shaun Anderson, their one starter who wasn't good in July. The league has caught up to the rookie Anderson, who went 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA in five starts last month. Anderson couldn't reach the sixth inning in any of those starts. The Giants' setup relief is down after a series of trades. Anderson hasn't been good either away from spacious Oracle Park with a 5.65 ERA in eight road starts. Opposing batters are hitting .306 against him on the road. Now Anderson is pitching at Coors Field, the premier hitter's park in the majors. Anderson pitched at Colorado last month and gave up five runs in 4 1/3 innings. The Rockies are going to be extra motivated for this series after being swept four games at home by the Giants last month. Even with that sweep, San Francisco still has lost 19 of the past 26 times at Coors. Rockies starter Peter Lambert has shown positive signs of breaking out of his slump. He has a respectable 3.86 ERA in his last three starts with a 15-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span.
07-31-19	Brewers v. A's -122	Top	4-2	Loss	-122	17 h 29 m	Show
The Brewers have their strengths. But playing on the West Coast in a big ballpark that negates their power is not one of them. That's the situation the Brewers find themselves in against Oakland. The pitching matchup clearly favors the A's, too, and the price is low enough to back the home chalk. Milwaukee is hoping Jordan Lyles can step up. That's asking a lot given Lyles' current form, which shows 20 earned runs in his last four starts spanning just 11 innings. Lyles has surrendered nine homers during this brief time frame. The A's are 9-2 (82%) in their last 11 home games. They are going with Brett Anderson, a crafy southpaw who can frustrate the Brewers. Anderson has allowed three earned or fewer in 10 of his past 12 starts. Milwaukee is 2-9 in its last 11 away contests versus a lefty starter.
07-29-19	Diamondbacks v. Marlins -102	Top	6-11	Win	100	15 h 57 m	Show
What we're getting here is a great price with the superior starting pitcher, home club and an underrated team. The Marlins have actually been better than the Diamondbacks during the last 60-some games. Miami is 30-32 in its last 62 games, while the Diamondbacks are 28-33 in their last 61 games. Arizona starter Merrill Kelly was battered for seven runs in 2 1/3 innings against the Orioles this past Tuesday. He has a 4.68 road ERA. His July ERA is 5.31. Miami starter Caleb Smith is 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four July starts. Smith is a strong strikeout pitcher who is at his best pitching at Marlins Park where he is 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting less than .200 against him. Discount a nine-run scoring game on Saturday and the Diamondbacks are averaging 2.5 runs during their last four games. They were 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position on Sunday in a 5-1 loss to the Marlins. Now they draw Miami's best pitcher.
07-26-19	Rangers v. A's -109		5-2	Loss	-109	19 h 0 m	Show
The Rangers nailed the A's, 11-3, Thursday night catching the A's flat after Oakland had just returned from a seven-game road trip. The A's should be on firmer ground in this second game of the series. Lance Lynn is having a strong season for Texas. But he is not in good form right now surrendering nine earned runs, 15 hits and three walks with three homers during his last two starts spanning 13 innings. Oakland starter Daniel Mengdon is 5-0 in nine appearances, including five starts, since losing his season debut on May 12. He won't have to deal with the Rangers' top power hitter, injured Joey Gallo. The A's have a huge bullpen edge. Oakland has defeated Texas in 15 of the past 20 meetings.
07-26-19	Pirates +161 v. Mets		3-6	Loss	-100	13 h 19 m	Show
The Pirates are in a slump. But the Mets have no business laying a price this high when Jacob deGrom isn't pitching. The pitching matchup is Dario Agrazal versus Zach Wheeler, who is coming off a stint on the injured list due to shoulder fatigue. Agrazal isn't a prize rookie. But he has been decent and is floating below the radar screen having allowed one run during three of his last four starts while reaching the sixth inning each time. The Pirates have the better bullpen especially with Edwin Diaz questionable after taking a liner off his foot Thursday. Wheeler last pitched on July 7 when he gave up six runs in five innings to the Phillies. Wheeler has a 4.69 ERA on the season. Agrazal, by comparison, has a 2.25 ERA.
07-25-19	Rangers v. A's -168		11-3	Loss	-168	18 h 24 m	Show
The Rangers are a clear fade right now. They have lost nine of their last 10 and the reality of them not being a legitimate playoff team has become evident. I don't see Texas turning things around in this matchup of Ariel Jurado versus Brett Anderson. Jurado is having a brutal July with an 0-3 record and 8.31 ERA. He has allowed 16 runs and 24 hits during his last four appearances spanning 17 1/3 innings. Jurado has a 12.79 ERA in two appearances against the A's last year. The A's are one game up on Tampa Bay for the last wild card spot in the AL. So the A's should be very focused returning from a seven-game road trip. They are 6-3 against the Rangers this season, including 3-0 at home. Anderson is pitching well with a 2-0 mark and 2.36 ERA during his last four starts. He likely won't have to deal with Joey Gallo, the Rangers' home run leader, who has a wrist injury.
07-25-19	Indians -136 v. Royals		5-4	Win	100	17 h 33 m	Show
The price is short enough to ride the Indians, who are making a move winning nine of their last 11 games and are 30-12 in their last 42 games. Adam Plutko is coming off a strong start for the Indians. Cleveland is 5-1 in Plutko's last six starts. The Royals are in a rare flat spot having just swept a two-game road series against the Braves. The Indians should encounter little difficulty facing Mike Montgomery. They just went against Montgomery six days ago and racked him for five runs and six hits in just two-plus innings.
07-23-19	Marlins -123 v. White Sox		5-1	Win	100	14 h 7 m	Show
I'd rather not lay a price when it's bad on bad like this matchup is. But I really like Caleb Smith and hate Dylan Covey. Smith is one of the more promising and below-the-radar pitchers in baseball. Covey is one of the worst with a 5.83 ERA. Covey is 0-3 with a 6.49 in interleague play. The Marlins are 8-1 when Smith has pitched against a foe with a losing record.
07-23-19	Reds v. Brewers -133	Top	14-6	Loss	-133	14 h 5 m	Show
Zach Davies has been one of the hottest pitchers and he has a now rested Josh Hader in the bullpen. Davies has allowed two earned runs in his last four starts spanning 23 1/3 innings. His ERA during this span is 0.77. Tanner Roark is not in Davies' class. This is the fourth time this season the Brewers get to face Roark, who has a 4.24 ERA versus Milwaukee. He has surrendered four homers to the Brewers in 17 innings. While Hader has the capability of pitching two quality innings in relief, the Reds are unsettled at closer as Raisel Iglesias has given up five runs in his last three appearances spanning 2 2/3 innings, including surrendering three homers.
07-23-19	Phillies -138 v. Tigers		3-2	Win	100	14 h 41 m	Show
The price is low enough to back the Phillies and Aaron Nola against the horrific Tigers, who have the fewest wins in the majors. Nola has allowed one or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts. Philadelphia has won six of Nola's last seven road starts. Matt Boyd is Detroit's best starting pitcher, hence the semi-competitive price. But Boyd hasn't been very good lately yielding four or more runs during each of his last six starts. The Tigers are 1-8 during their last nine interleague games.
07-22-19	Rangers +116 v. Mariners	Top	3-7	Loss	-100	15 h 11 m	Show
This is a crucial series for the Rangers. Their season is on the line. Texas was a big early-season surprise. The Rangers now, though, are in trouble having lost seven in a row. Seattle has been worse, however. The Mariners have lost 15 of their last 18 games, including going 1-8 in their last nine games. The Rangers had a 30-minute team meeting following their 5-3 loss to the Astros on Sunday. That defeat pushed the Rangers 6 1/2 games back in the wild-card chase. If the Rangers don't fare well in this series, they could start dealing veterans and look to rebuild for next season. Texas starter Adrian Sampson has a chance to rejoin the Rangers' starting rotation again with a good start. He is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four lifetime appearances versus Seattle. The Mariners are going with Marco Gonzalez, who has a 4.48 ERA. The Rangers have won seven of the past eight times against the Mariners.
07-20-19	Blue Jays v. Tigers +115		7-5	Loss	-100	14 h 1 m	Show
If the Tigers are ever going to win again this is their spot. This isn't so much a play on Detroit as a fade on the road Blue Jays and taking a plus price. Toronto is pitching rookie Trent Thornton, who usually is bad three out of every four starts. He has a 5.25 ERA on the season. Toronto has lost eight of its last 11 away games. The Blue Jays are 1-5 in Thornton's last six road outings. Southpaw Daniel Norris is slated to start for Detroit. Norris hasn't been good this year, but he won't lack motivation against his former team. The only time the Blue Jays have faced Norris was seeing him in relief. Norris held Toronto scoreless in 3 1/3 career innings. The Blue Jays have lost 35 of the past 52 times when opposing a lefty starter.
07-19-19	A's v. Twins -125	Top	5-3	Loss	-125	12 h 35 m	Show
In Jake We Trust. Jake Odorizzi is having a monster season for the Twins and is back healthy. Odorizzi is at his best at Target Field where his home numbers are 6-0, 2.27 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He has struckout 55 batters in 47 2/3 innings at home. Minnesota is 14-2 in Odorizzi's last 16 starts at Target Field for a home winning percentage of 88 percent during this span! While Odorizzi is the nuts at home, Oakland starter Chris Bassitt is at his worst pitching on the road in night games. Bassitt has a 4.43 road ERA and a 5.79 ERA when pitching at night. The Twins have the far superior offense, too, ranking in the top-two in homers, runs and batting average. The A's rank ninth in runs and 18th in batting average. Minnesota should be loose feeling less pressure after halting its three-game losing streak, longest of the season for the Twins, on Thursday beating Oakland, 6-3.
07-17-19	Mets v. Twins -165	Top	14-4	Loss	-165	11 h 6 m	Show
If the Twins lose here, it will be their third loss in a row. That hasn't happened all season. I don't see in occurring here especially at home to the Mets. Minnesota is 28-16 at home. The Twins are 27-9 following a loss. The Mets have lost 27 of their last 38 road games. The Twins draw 36-year-old Jason Vargas, who has given up six homers in his last five starts. Minnesota leads the majors in homers and ranks No. 2 in runs. The Mets go against lefty Martin Perez, who is far from outstanding but is reliable enough to keep the Mets in check. Perez is 4-2 with a 3.71 ERA at home this season. The Mets are 9-12 versus lefthanded starters.
07-15-19	White Sox -117 v. Royals	Top	2-5	Loss	-117	6 h 11 m	Show
Lucas Giolito has become an elite pitcher this season. He has dominated the Royals going 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in four starts this season. Giolito is 6-0 versus the Royals for his career with a 2.13 ERA. The White Sox have won 10 of Giolito's last 13 starts. Royals starter Jakob Junis last won on May 30. He has a 5.33 ERA this year and a 5.34 career ERA against the White Sox in five starts. Chicago is the better hitting team, too. The White Sox have defeated the Royals in five of the last six meetings.
07-14-19	Tigers +136 v. Royals		12-8	Win	136	9 h 52 m	Show
There are three teams in the American League I would grade an F: Orioles, Tigers and Royals. So, from a value standpoint, I'm compelled to take this price in a meeting of two "F" teams especially when the favored Royals are pitching Homer Bailey. Bailey actually has been pitching well recently. But he's still Homer Bailey and he carries a 5.44 day time ERA. The Royals are going for a three-game sweep of the Tigers. They are 6-21 following a victory. Tigers starter Jordan Zimmermann is overdue for a victory. He was hammered by the Red Sox in his last start. However, he held the Nationals to one run on four hits in six innings during his prior start before Boston.
07-13-19	Tigers -103 v. Royals		1-4	Loss	-103	11 h 26 m	Show
This is a huge start for Matthew Boyd, who is coming off a 13-strikeout, no-walk performance against the White Sox. The lefthanded Boyd is a prime trade candidate. The Tigers usually are alert and up for games when he pitches knowing he gives them a rare opportunity to win. The Royals are 17-28 at home. They are 8-17 when facing a lefty starter. The Royals have the lowest slugging percentage against southpaws in the American League. Kansas City is slated to start Brad Keller, who has a 4.47 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. Keller walked five batters in 5 2/3 innings during his last start eight days ago against the Nationals. Keller said hot, humid conditions contributed to his giving up so many walks. Keller said, "Every time I went to the set, my hand and arm were dripping wet. At the end, I just went to my sinker - that's the only pitch I could sort of command." Temperatures for this game are forecast to hit 90 degrees. So Keller figures to have control problems again. The Tigers should be expecting plenty of sinkers, too.
07-13-19	Mets -130 v. Marlins		4-2	Win	100	10 h 26 m	Show
Better starter, better closer and stronger offense. The Mets hold those edges against the Marlins. Noah Syndergaard is coming around for the Mets, who finally figured out to start catcher Tomas Nido when Syndergaard pitches. Syndergaard is having a down year, but has shown signs of coming around. Talent isn't the issue with him. That's where the steadying influence of Nido helps. It is better for the Mets they go with Nido's defense rather than Wilson Ramos' offense when Syndergaard is on the mound. New York has won the past four times Syndergaard has pitched. Syndergaard has been dominating versus the Marlins going 6-1 with a 1.74 ERA in nine starts against them spanning 62 innings. Edwin Diaz gives New York an edge at closer. The Mets average one run more per game than the Marlins, who are starting rookie Zac Gallen. This will be Gallen's fourth big league start. He allowed three runs in five innings in a loss to the Nationals during his previous start on June 26. Gallen has potential and the Marlins are willing to live with his mistakes as he gains major league experience. Marlins manager Don Mattingly admitted this saying about Gallen, "There's going to be a learning curve from game to game." The Marlins have lost 12 of their last 17 home games.
07-12-19	Braves -107 v. Padres		5-3	Win	100	17 h 58 m	Show
Dinelson Lamet gets some love because he can strike out a lot of hitters. I admit to being intriguied by his potential. But he's a young pitcher, who doesn't win and is on the comeback trail. The Braves are the superior team and have the better starter going with crafty veteran lefty Dallas Keuchel. Atlanta is 18-8 in its last 26 road games. San Diego has a losing home record. So I find this a nice value price to back Atlanta. Lamet is making just his second big league start in two years after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Before his injury, Lambet was 7-8 with a 4.57 ERA. He struck out 33 in 24 innings during six minor league rehab starts. He also yielded 16 runs in those 24 innings. San Diego has lost in each of Lamet's past eight starts. Keuchel has been solid in four starts with the Braves not allowing more than three earned runs during any start. He's given up up four runs on 10 hits during his last two outings spanning 14 1/3 innings. The Padres rank 13th out of 15 National League teams in batting average against lefthanders. They have a losing record versus southpaw starters. The Braves have established themselves as the second-best team in the National League winning 24 of their last 34 games.
07-12-19	Reds v. Rockies -117		2-3	Win	100	15 h 24 m	Show
I don't like the Reds on the road and I'm not buying that Sonny Gray has transformed back into being an All-Star caliber pitcher. I do buy into the Rockies being a tough home team and Jon Gray knowing how to pitch effectively at Coors Field. Statistics back this up. The Reds are 17-25 on the road. Colorado traditonally has been very strong at Coors. The Rockies are 24-19 at home this season. Righthanded Jon Gray is 4-1 with a 3.35 ERA in eight games at Coors, including seven starts. Cincinnati is 17-35 in its last 52 away games versus a righty starter. Sonny Gray is facing a Rockies club that is batting .312 at home. That's 33 points higher than the second-best team's home batting average. The Rockies also are No. 1 in the majors in home slugging percentage, OPS and OBP.
07-07-19	Padres v. Dodgers -156		5-3	Loss	-156	10 h 56 m	Show
The Dodgers have lost two in a row to the Padres. The last time LA lost more than two consecutive games was April. The Dodgers have won 76 percent of their last 59 home games. So I don't mind laying a higher than normal price to back the Dodgers in this spot in a pitching matchup of lefty Joey Lucchesi versus Ross Stripling. Lucchesi is a Petco Park pitcher with a bad history against the Dodgers. He has a 2.76 ERA at Petco. That ERA rises to 6.10 when Lucchesi pitches on the road. He has a 7.64 ERA in four career starts against the Dodgers. The Padres have lost all four of those starts. The Dodgers are 6-1 the past seven times going against a southpaw starter. Padres closer Kirby Yates carries a high fatigue rating having thrown 39 pitches during the past two days in picking up saves Friday and Saturday. Stripling is underrated being part of such a strong Dodgers pitching staff. He would be a No. 3 type starter on many teams, but has had to wait until Rich Hill suffered a long-term injury to get back into LA's rotation. Stripling has a 2.61 career ERA in 13 appearances versus San Diego, including five starts. The Padres could be without their star rookie Fernando Tatis Jr. He was hit on the elbow by a pitch during Saturday's game.
07-06-19	Rockies +104 v. Diamondbacks	Top	2-4	Loss	-100	15 h 11 m	Show
Colorado had held Arizona's number winning eight in a row against the Diamondbacks - until Friday night. The Rockies couldn't do anything against Zach Greinke in an 8-0 loss. Look for the Rockies, though, to start a new win streak against the Diamondbacks in a pitching matchup of Jon Gray versus Robbie Ray. Gray has always had a high ceiling and he's been pitching much better with a 2.90 ERA in his last nine appearances spanning 49 2/3 innings. Gray has 52 strikeouts during this span. Colorado is 7-1 in his past eight starts. Gray is 1-0 with a 2.38 ERA in two starts versus Arizona this season, including holding the Diamondbacks to one earned run in six innings at Chase Field on June 19. Gary won't have to worry about injured David Peralta, the Diamondbacks' third-best hitter. Ray hasn't pitched well for more than a month giving up three earned runs or more in six of his last seven starts. His ERA has gone from 3.26 to 4.10 during this time frame.The lefty has a 5.49 ERA in 15 career starts versus the Rockies. Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story have a combined .388 batting average against Ray with 10 homers in 103 at bats. The Rockies rank in the top four in the National League against lefthanded pitching in a number of categories, including batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.
07-06-19	Indians -120 v. Reds		7-2	Win	100	9 h 18 m	Show
The Indians are heading into All-Star break making a move, going 19-8 in their last 27 games. Jose Ramirez is showing definite signs of breaking out of his season-long slumber batting .333 in his last 10 games. The Indians are much more dangerous when Ramirez is playing well. Cincinnati has won three in a row, all against the Brewers with two of the victories being by one run. I just see the Indians as being at least a level higher than the Reds and I like the pitching matchup of Shane Biebier against Anthony DeSclafani enough to lay this price. DeSclafani has a 5.64 ERA in day games. Bieber has proven himself on the road with a 5-2 away mark and 3.33 ERA. Cleveland is 11-3 in his last 14 road starts. Bieber is coming off a 2-0 victory against the Orioles where he allowed three hits in eight innings with 11 strikeouts. The Reds are just 6-15 in their last 21 interleague games.
07-04-19	Twins -131 v. A's	Top	2-7	Loss	-131	8 h 11 m	Show
Oakland is a tough venue for Minnesota. But a pitching matchup of Jose Berrios versus rookie Tanner Anderson and a fair lay price gets me involved with the Twins. Berrios is a top-five American League starter. He has a 2.89 ERA and is going for his eighth straight quality start. In day action this season, Berrios is 5-1 with a 2.72 ERA. Minnesota has won six of his last seven road starts and 13 of his past 18 overall starts. Anderson had a 6.26 ERA in Triple A. His ERA in the majors is 7.13 in 17 2/3 innings. The A's are 0-4 in Anderson's four starts. The Twins lead the majors in homers and are No. 2 in runs. Anderson is a flyball pitcher and the weather forecast is for wind blowing out at nine mph.
07-02-19	Yankees v. Mets +135		2-4	Win	135	14 h 57 m	Show
Anyone flying back to the U.S. from London knows it takes a few days to get back into a normal routine. It's called jet lag. The Yankees are sure to experience it and also are in a letdown spot after scoring 29 runs in sweeping two wins from the Red Sox in London during the weekend. They are leading the AL East by 6 1/2 games. Now, just two days later, the Yankees are back in action. That's too soon. The Mets are a dysfunctional bunch, but they do get excited about this series. They faced lefty James Paxton three weeks ago and rocked him for six runs in 2 2/3 innings. The Mets are 7-2 in their last nine games versus a southpaw starter. Mets starter Zach Wheeler has given up just two earned runs in his last two starts spanning 13 innings with 12 strikeouts. Those starts came against two good hitting teams, the Phillies and Cubs.
06-30-19	Phillies -126 v. Marlins		13-6	Win	100	7 h 52 m	Show
Miami has had Philadelphia's number winning the past five times against the Phillies. This doesn't change the fact that the Phillies are much the superior team and have a starting pitched edge here. Jake Arrieta is past his prime. But the Phillies are 4-0 against the Marlins during Arrieta's last four starts against them. He rates an edge against Trevor Richards and has the better offense to back him up. The Marlins rank 29th in runs and 30th in homers. Richards is 2-6 with a 4.37 ERA in 10 home starts. He is 1-3 with a 6.64 ER in five lifetime starts versus the Phillies. The Marlins have lost in eight of Richards' past 10 home starts.
06-29-19	Diamondbacks -136 v. Giants	Top	4-3	Win	100	17 h 16 m	Show
This road price is worthy laying in a pitching matchup of Zack Greinke versus lefty Drew Pomeranz. Greinke is 2-0 with a 0.47 ERA in his last three road starts. Greinke loves to pitch at Oracle Park where he is 5-0 lifetime with a 1.37 ERA in seven starts. Arizona has won 72 percent of Greinke's last 47 starts against sub .500 teams. The Giants are seven games below .500 at home. They rank in the bottom five in batting average, runs and homers. Pomeranz is 2-8 with a 6.79 ERA. He probably shouldn't be in a big league starting rotation. Pomeranz is 0-4 with an 8.53 ERA in 10 career appearances versus Arizona, including seven starts. The Diamondbacks have the highest batting average and slugging percentage in the National League against lefthanders.
06-29-19	Twins -160 v. White Sox		10-3	Win	100	11 h 54 m	Show
Perhaps tired from losing an 18-inning home game to the Rays on Thursday, the Twins fell to the White Sox, 6-4, at Chicago on Friday. Minnesota has not dropped three games in a row all season. Look for the Twins to bounce back here. Minnesota is 17-8 in its last 25 away games. Michael Pineda gets the start. He has given up three earned runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts. He has allowed just one homer in his last five starts. The White Sox have a bottom-seven offense and are without their best hitter, injured Tim Anderson. White Sox starter Ivan Nova is 0-2 with a 4.66 ERA this month. He has yet to win at home this season going 0-3 with an 8.79 ERA in six starts at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Twins have a powerful record against weak opponents. Minnesota is 41-16 versus below .500 foes.
06-28-19	A's +122 v. Angels	Top	7-2	Win	122	13 h 41 m	Show
Oakland is 7-3 in its last 10 games. The Angels defeated the A's, 8-3, on Thursday. The A's have come back and won the past six times following a loss. I like their chances in this matchup. Mike Fiers is 5-0 with a 2.51 ERA in his last nine starts. Fiers, a flyball pitcher, is tough when pitching at spacious West Coast ballparks like Angel Stadium. Fiers is 2-0 in two starts against the Angels this season. The Angels are using this as a bullpen game. Noe Ramirez is expected to pitch the first inning and then be followed by Felix Pena, who is 0-2 with an 11.81 ERA in five career appearances against the A's, including three starts. Oakland is averaging 5.3 runs per game during its last 10 games. The Angels do not have a strong bullpen, ranking 10th in relief pitching ERA, and their relievers have been pitching a lot of innings. I prefer Oakland's bullpen even without injured closer Blake Treinen.
06-26-19	Nationals -148 v. Marlins	Top	7-5	Win	100	16 h 32 m	Show
The Nationals have been playing better winning six of their last eight games. Lefty Patrick Corbin dominated the Marlins when he faced them a month ago. Corbin went the distance and shut out the Marlins giving up just four hits and one walk. Corbin was a minus $2.50 home favorite against Sandy Alcantara. This price is far lower so I see value on the Nationals even though they are mid-sized chalk. The Marlins are 17-35 the last 52 times they've faced a lefty starter at home. Rookie Zac Gallen is set to make his second big league start for Miami. He looked good against the Cardinals in his debut. But he is unproven. Corbin isn't. The Nationals have been swinging hot bats, too. If you discount their 2-0 win against the Phillies, the Nationals are averaging 8.3 runs in its last six games.
06-26-19	Padres v. Orioles +119		10-5	Loss	-100	12 h 49 m	Show
There is one area the Orioles are good at - beating National League lefties at home. Baltimore is 12-4 the past 16 times hosting an NL foe starting a southpaw. The Padres are going with lefty Matt Strahm, who is in danger of losing his spot in San Diego's starting rotation. Foes have adjusted to Strahm, who has been beaten up for 20 runs during his last four appearances spanning 18 2/3 innings. Strahm has been tagged for eight homers in this time frame and Camden Yards is a great hitter's park. Dylan Bundy has pitched much better during the past two months. His ERA is a respectable 3.46 in his last nine starts. Bundy has given up three or fewer runs in eight of his last nine starts. The Padres have lost eight of their last 10 road games.
06-25-19	Mets v. Phillies -139	Top	5-7	Win	100	15 h 2 m	Show
The Mets are in disarray with eight losses in their last 12 games. Walter Lockett, a fill-in starer without decent credentials, is not the pitcher to put a stop to it. The Phillies, on the other hand, regained their swagger burying the Mets, 13-7, Monday night. Lockett made his season debut this past Thursday against the Cubs and was battered for six earned runs in 2 1/3 innings in a 7-4 loss. Phillies starter Jake Arrieta allowed just one run on two hits in six innings against the Nationals in his last start this past Wednesday. Arrieta has a career 2.50 ERA against the Mets in 12 starts. New York is 8-23 in its last 31 road games and have lost in five of its past six visits to Philadelphia. Tuesday Free Play Mariners plus $1.55 at Brewers Zach Davies is 7-1 with a 3.06 ERA. He is not nearly as good as those numbers show. The regression has started. Davies has a 7.82 ERA in his last three stars. He gave up five runs on nine hits in 2 2/3 innings against the Padres at pitcher-friendly Petco Park this past Wednesday during his last start. Now Davies draws a hot-hitting Mariners club averaging eight runs a game in their past five games. While Davies is returning to the norm, Seattle starter Marco Gonzales is back pitching well. The lefty is 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA in his last three starts. He hasn't given up more than two earned runs during each of those outings. Milwaukee is 10-13 versus southpaw starters. The Mariners are 5-4 in their last nine road games facing the Angels, Twins and A's during this span. The Brewers have lost the first game during each of their last four series.
06-23-19	Angels v. Cardinals -130	Top	6-4	Loss	-130	14 h 23 m	Show
Miles Mikolas loves to pitch at Busch Stadium. Mikolas was 8-4 with a 2.17 ERA pitching at Busch Stadium in his first season with the Cardinals last year. He's followed that up with a winning home mark and a 2.55 ERA at Busch this season. The Angels have managed just three runs during the first two games of this series. St. Louis is 12-4 in Mikolas' last 16 home starts. Tyler Skaggs has been less effective on the road for the Angels with a 5.27 away ERA. The Cardinals have scored four or more runs in eight of their last 10 games.
06-23-19	Giants v. Diamondbacks -137		2-3	Win	100	12 h 31 m	Show
The Giants are going for a road sweep against the Diamondbacks. I don't see them getting it. The pitching matchup is Shaun Anderson against Merrill Kelly. Anderson went against Arizona on May 26. He took the loss in that game allowing six runs, four of which were earned, while allowing nine hits with one walk in five innings. Kelly faced the Giants on May 17. He shut them out in 5 1/3 innings. Kelly is off a rough outing in his start against the Rockies. Prior to that start, though, Kelly had posted a 3-0 mark with a 0.81 ERA in three starts.
06-23-19	Astros -125 v. Yankees		9-4	Win	100	9 h 23 m	Show
The Yankees are hot. The Astros are not. This just comes down to trusting Justin Verlander and getting a low enough price to back him. Houston is 21-5 in Verlander's last 26 road starts. The Astros are 8-1 the past nine times Verlander has pitched on the road versus an above .500 opponent. He has beaten the Yankees four of the last five times he has faced them. Lefty J.A. Happ goes for New York. He is 6-0 in his last eight starts, but with a 4.29 ERA during this span. Happ has been lucky. The Astros are 16-6 against lefty starters this season.
06-21-19	Twins -156 v. Royals	Top	8-7	Win	100	15 h 48 m	Show
Perhaps the Twins felt a bit of a letdown entering Thursday's first game of this road series against the lowly Royals having just hosted a three-game series with the Red Sox. The Royals upset the Twins on Thursday. It was Minnesota's second loss in a row. The Twins haven't lost three straight games all season - and I certainly don't see that occurring here. I like the pitching matchup for Minnesota and the spot as the Twins shouldn't lack motivation and concentration after Kansas City just beat Jake Odorizzi. Kansas City is 5-16 following a victory. The Royals aren't good at home either with a 15-23 mark. The Twins own the best record in the American League. They are 21-6 following a defeat and have won 65 percent of their road games. Lefty Martin Perez faces Jakob Junis. Perez is having his finest season with his best strikeout and hit rates of his career. He has a 3.08 lifetime ERA against the Royals in four starts. The Royals are 8-14 versus southpaw starters. Kansas City ranks in the bottom-six in runs and homers. Junis goes against a Twins offense that ranks first in runs and homers and second in batting average. The Twins have seven players with at least 11 homers. The Royals only have one player in their lineup with more than 11 homers. The weather forecast is calling for 13-15 mph winds blowing out, which favor the power-hitting Twins. Kansas City is without its starting left side of its infield with Adalberto Mondesi and Hunter Dozier both on IL. Mondesi could be the Royals' second best player and Dozier is their second-leading home run hitter. Junis has a lifetime 0-1 mark with a 4.55 ERA in six starts against the Twins. Minnesota just saw Junis this past Sunday. The Twins collected five hits and three walks, scoring two runs in 3 2/3 innings against Junis.
06-19-19	White Sox +135 v. Cubs	Top	3-7	Loss	-100	16 h 32 m	Show
Lucas Giolito is an emerging superstar. Jon Lester is on the downside of his career. Stats and current form reflect this. Giolito is riding an eight-game win streak. That's what happens when you have a 0.94 ERA during this span. The White Sox are 11-1 in Giolito's last 12 starts. The 35-year-old Lester already has hit a wall this season with a 7.59 ERA in his last six starts. Lester was battered for three homers and six runs in five innings against the Dodgers during his last start this past Thursday. The price is high on the Cubs because they are home and considered a much better team than the White Sox. However, the White Sox have won 12 of their last 19 games while the Cubs are just 10-15 in their last 25 games.
06-18-19	Royals v. Mariners -123	Top	9-0	Loss	-123	14 h 6 m	Show
The buy sign is back on Yusei Kikuchi after the lefty held the Twins - the AL's top-scoring team - to one run on six hits in five innings this past Thursday on the road. The buy sign is never on Homer Bailey, who has a 5.37 ERA. Expect that already-horrible ERA to go up even more as Bailey's ERA has been above 6.00 during the previous three years. Seattle is the far superior offensive team, too, ranking eighth in the majors in runs and No. 2 in homers. Kansas City, by contrast, rates 25th in runs and 26th in homers. The Royals are 7-13 against lefty starters this season. They have won just 28 percent of their last 61 away contests. The Mariners have dominated this series winning nine of the last 10 times, including posting a 4-1 mark this season.
06-15-19	Cardinals +125 v. Mets	Top	7-8	Loss	-100	6 h 51 m	Show
The Cardinals are playing much better than the Mets having won nine of their last 14. The Mets have lost three of their last four. Noah Syndergaard was sick earlier in the week and is having a down season. He's been especially bad at night with a 5.88 ERA in evening games. The Mets are 1-4 in his last five starts. New York's bullpen has been terrible, too, even closer Edwin Diaz is having a subpar season. St. Louis starter Michael Wacha looked like a new pitcher in his first start off the DL from a knee injury throwing six scoreless innings against the Marlins. The buy sign is back on Wacha at this underdog price.
06-12-19	Brewers v. Astros -124	Top	6-3	Loss	-124	16 h 39 m	Show
The oddsmaker is overrating the Brewers and Brandon Woodruff by making Houston such a short home favorite. The Astros haven't missed Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa going 28-8 (78%) during their last 36 games. The Astros have outstanding young talent to fill in while these superstars are out with injuries. Yordan Alvarez and Tyler White, two of these highly promising youngsters, slugged homers in helping Houston defeat Milwaukee, 10-8, on Tuesday. That loss dropped the Brewers to 1-8 in their last nine road interleague games. Woodruff has been pitching well for Milwaukee. But he's trumped by Justin Verlander, who is in the argument for best pitcher in the American League. Verlander is 9-2 with a 2.31 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP. Opponents are batting only .151 against him. Verlander is 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA in two career starts versus the Brewers. Verlander has a 1.35 ERA at home this season. Woodruff has a 4.03 road ERA in five away starts this season.
06-11-19	Brewers v. Astros -111	Top	8-10	Win	100	15 h 8 m	Show
It's rarely wrong to back the Astros especially when the price is fair, which it is here. Houston is 27-8 in its last 35 games and is tied for the best winning percentage in the majors. Houston has key injuries, but also has a very strong farm system. Because of that the Astros have been able to cover up their injuries. The Astros are 21-8 in Brad Peacock's last 29 starts. Peacock is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. He's overshadowed in Houston by Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. But he's a tremendous pitcher giving up two runs or less in eight of his 11 starts. The Brewers are 1-7 in their last eight interleague road games. They are a solid National League club, but not at the Astros' elite level. Milwaukee is pitching Freddy Peralta, who has shown flashes but remains highly inconsistent. He has a 6.23 night ERA this season.
06-09-19	Braves v. Marlins +125		7-6	Loss	-100	7 h 4 m	Show
I'll take a shot with the Marlins at this plus price. I favor Miami's starting pitching matchup and the Braves could be resting a starter or two, which would help even up the everyday lineup advantage. Pablo Lopez has been tremendous when pitching at Marlins Park this year going 2-1 with a 1.84 ERA in five home starts. Lopez is in good current form, too, with a 1.99 ERA in his last four starts. Opponents are batting .183 against him during this span. The opposite is true of Braves starter Max Fried. The lefty has a 5.18 ERA during his last eight starts. He's really looked bad in his last two starts giving up nine earned runs in 9 2/3 innings. Fried has a 5.63 career ERA in two starts versus the Marlins. Miami is 15-30 against righthanded starters this year. However, the Marlins are a far more respectable 8-9 when going against a southpaw starter.
06-08-19	A's v. Rangers +119		1-3	Win	119	8 h 16 m	Show
Texas starter Adrian Sampson is below-the-radar right now. He's developed a couple of new pitches and he has been pitching well winning his last four appearances. During this time Sampson has posted a 2.38 ERA. The Rangers enter play today ranked No. 2 in the majors in runs scored and are 12-4 in their last 16 home games. Texas draws righthander Chris Bassitt, who has pitched decently this season but has a 5.25 lifetime ERA against the Rangers in four appearances, including two starts. The Rangers enter today winning nine of their last 12 versus a righty starter.
06-08-19	White Sox -129 v. Royals		2-0	Win	100	12 h 33 m	Show
The White Sox are 7-0 in Lucas Giolito's last seven starts. It's no fluke as Giolito has emerged as one of the top pitchers in the American League. He's surrendered just five runs in his last six starts spanning 43 2/3 innings. Giolito is 5-0 with a 2.43 ERA in nine lifetime starts against the Royals, including defeating them, 4-3, on May 28 where he recorded 10 strikeouts. Kansas City is 1-7 in Keller's last eight starts. The Royals beat the White Sox, 6-4, on Friday. However, they are just 3-12 in their last 15 games and 1-8 following a victory. Kansas City also is 0-8 the past eight times when playing the second game of a series.
06-07-19	A's +105 v. Rangers		5-3	Win	105	11 h 36 m	Show
The oddsmaker opened a wrong favorite here. The A's have dominated the Rangers winning 25 of the past 34 meetings, including going 5-1 during their last six visits to Texas. The Rangers have lost the first game in 11 of their last 14 series. The A's are playing great on the road winning eight of their past nine. The pitching matchup pits Brett Anderson against Lance Lynn. Anderson has a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts spanning 17 innings. Lynn faced the A's on April 23 and was hammered for eight runs in just 3 1/3 innings. I'd rate Anderson a slight edge against Lynn and Oakland with a major edge when it comes to the bullpen.
06-02-19	Indians +131 v. White Sox		0-2	Loss	-100	10 h 60 m	Show
Luis Giolito seemingly has turned the corner. He's pitched well all season. The White Sox are improved and the Indians have looked terrible. But I'm going to back the Indians at this plus price. Cleveland still is the superior team. The Indians are pitching rookie Zach Plesac, who impressed in his big league debut this past Tuesday at Boston. He held the Red Sox to one run on four hits and one walk in 5 1/3 innings. Now he is stepping down in class. Plesac had a 1.41 ERA in nine minor league starts with a 56-to-7 strikeouts-to-walk ratio before being called up. Giolito has a 4.41 lifetime ERA against the Indians.
06-02-19	Nationals -121 v. Reds		4-1	Win	100	9 h 59 m	Show
I consider Max Scherzer the best pitcher in the National League, if not all of baseball. Sonny Gray is a "C" level pitcher at best and that may be a generous assesment. So I very much like this price point. Scherzer is having another strong year this season despite his 2-5 record. He has made seven straight quality appearances. Scherzer was 2-0 versus the Reds last season with a 1.50 ERA. Washington has won 67 percent of Scherzer's past 58 road starts. The Nationals also are 4-0 in Scherzer's last four starts against Cincinnati. Gray has a 4.18 in six home starts this season. He's vulnerable pitching at Great American Ball Park, which is a top hitter's park. The Nationals have dominated the Reds at Great American Ball Park winning nine of the past 10 times.
05-25-19	Red Sox +118 v. Astros		3-4	Loss	-100	18 h 16 m	Show
David Price is healthy and back in form. He has a 2.17 ERA in his last five starts with 33 strikeouts during this span. The Astros aren't likely to have two of their most dangerous and best hitters with George Springer and Jose Altuve each hurt. Springer injured his hamstring Friday night and could be headed to the injured list where Altuve resides also because of a hamstring injury. The Astros are pitching Brad Peacock. I like Peacock, but he is still striving for consistency. Boston has turned around its season going 16-7 in his last 23 games. The Red Sox also have back their most dangerous power hitter, J.D. Martinez. He played Friday after missing the past four games due to a back injury. Houston is 3-3 in its last six games.
05-21-19	Reds v. Brewers -125		3-0	Loss	-125	19 h 31 m	Show
The Reds have lost 40 of their past 57 road games, including going 9-15 away from home this season. They are 4-7 versus southpaws this season and facing Brewers southpaw Gio Gonzalez at Miller Park. The Brewers have won 67 percent of their home games this year going 16-8. Gonzalez is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in four starts this season. Milwaukee is 9-2 in his last 11 starts going back to last season. Gonzalez is 6-3 career-wise versus the Reds with a 2.75 ERA in 12 starts. The Reds could be without Yasiel Puig, who suffered a shoulder injury on Sunday. Reds starter Sonny Gray is 0-4 with a 4.30 ERA. Gray has yet to reach the seventh inning this season and is not a good fit pitching at homer-friendly Miller Park.
05-18-19	Giants -106 v. Diamondbacks		8-5	Win	100	11 h 54 m	Show
The Diamondbacks are pitching Zack today. The wrong Zach. It's Zack Godley getting the start not Zack Greinke. That puts me in action with this matchup because Madison Bumgarner goes for San Francisco with a price that is right to back the superior pitcher. The Giants are 9-2 the past 11 times Bumgarner has faced Arizona at Chase Field. The Giants lost a rough 7-0 game to the Diamondbacks on Friday. Bruce Bochy was tossed during the game. So the Giants won't be mailing this one in. They are 6-2 the past eight times following a loss. Bumgarner is in solid form with a 3.50 ERA and a 23-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three starts. Bumgarner has a lifetime 2.43 ERA against the Diamondbacks spanning 33 outings, including 32 starts. He has a 2.81 career ERA at Chase Field. Injuries have forced Godley into Arizona's starting rotation - at least for this game. He is struggling with a 7.65 ERA in 10 games, including seven starts. Arizona is 1-6 in Godley's last seven home starts. Godley has a 6.68 career ERA versus the Giants in eight appearances, including six starts.
05-17-19	Blue Jays +100 v. White Sox		10-2	Win	100	17 h 20 m	Show
I'm not a fan of Ivan Nova especially when he's favored against a better pitcher. That's the case in today's Blue Jays-White Sox game in a starting pitching matchup of Aaron Sanchez versus Nova. Nova is in better current form than Sanchez, but that's not enough to convince me. Sanchez has a 3.75 ERA. The righthander was very good three years ago when he last was fully healthy. Sanchez has been durable this season. The White Sox are 5-13 in their last 18 home games when facing a righty starter. Nova has a 6.29 ERA. That hideous ERA is doubled at Guaranteed Rate Field - 13.50. Nova is 6-7 with a 5.38 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in 19 career appearances against the Blue Jays, including 17 starts. His lifetime ERA at Guaranteed Rate Field is 6.62. So if you think this is a fade on Nova you are 100 percent correct.
05-13-19	A's v. Mariners -125	Top	5-6	Win	100	24 h 53 m	Show
Kudos to Mike Fiers on throwing a no-hitter against the Reds in his last start at home this past Tuesday. Fiers also threw a staggering 131 pitches. Fiers is a 33-year-old journeyman with a career losing record and a 5.48 ERA on the season. Prior to his last start, Fiers had a 6.81 ERA. I'm going to fade Fiers in an obvious letdown spot and with the A's taking to the road for the first time in a week. The A's can be dangerous at Oakland Coliseum. However, they are much worse on the road. Oakland is 5-13 away from home this season. The A's have lost nine of their last 10 road games. Fiers pitched against the Mariners opening day in Japan. The Mariners won, 9-7, knocking out Fiers after three innings by scoring five runs. Seattle is starting Yusei Kikuchi, who I consider to be the Mariners' best pitcher. The Mariners haven't been playing well. They just concluded a 2-8 road trip. But they are returning home now where they should be more relaxed.
05-11-19	Phillies -132 v. Royals	Top	7-0	Win	100	17 h 57 m	Show
It hasn't been Aaron Nola nor Jake Arrieta. No, the Phillies' best starting pitchers have been Zach Eflin and Jerad Eickhoff. Eflin is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.90 ratio during his last three starts. Eflin gets the start here against Brad Keller. It's a testament on how bad the Royals are that Keller is their best picher and Kansas City is 2-5 in his last seven starts. Keller is not in good form either going 0-2 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.80 ratio in his past three starts. The Phillies rank seventh in runs scored. The Royals are 16th in runs. Philadelphia has the superior bullpen. The Royals upset the Phillies in Game 1 of this series Friday. I want the Phillies going for me in this revenge spot.
05-11-19	Marlins +272 v. Mets		1-4	Loss	-100	17 h 51 m	Show
Jacob deGrom looks back in dominant form. Even if that is true, I'll throw a peanut out there on the Marlins at this tremendous plus price. The Mets are a below .500 team with a below average offense. They also don't usually win for deGrom at home losing 18 of his past 24 outings at Citi Field. Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara is striving for consistency. He is capable of throwing a gem, though. The Marlins have enjoyed surprising good success against deGrom winning seven of the last nine times deGrom has started against them.
05-10-19	Phillies -146 v. Royals		1-5	Loss	-146	11 h 0 m	Show
Sometimes there is value backing a favorite. That's the case here. The Phillies are actually helped playing this opponent on the road because they have better DH options. Philadelphia came on last season and the Phillies are No. 1 in the NL East this season. Kansas City has the second-worst record in baseball. The Royals can't match the Phillies' power and are pitching Homer Bailey against Jake Arrieta. Bailey is as terrible as ever with a 5.25 ERA. The last time he had an ERA of less than 6.00 was 2014. Once in a while he throws a gem. Otherwise it remains a mystery how he can still be in a big league starting rotation. Bailey is backed by a bottom-five bullpen. The Phillies have scored five or more runs in seven of its last 10 games. Arrieta is having another solid season. The Phillies have allowed only eight runs in their last four games.
05-08-19	Reds v. A's -119		4-5	Win	100	19 h 52 m	Show
The Reds experienced real cultural shock going from homer friendly Great American Ball Park to the spacious confines and weird pitcher-friendly configuration of Oakland Coliseum as they were no-hit in Game 1 of this series by Mike Fiers on Tuesday. Fiers, mind you, is not exactly Nolan Ryan. I don't see the Reds doing much against Brett Anderson either in the middle game of their three game series versus the A's, which marks Cincinnati's first visit to Oakland in six years. Anderson is a fragile lefty who is tough on bad teams when pitching in Oakland especially at night. The A's are 9-1 the past 10 times Anderson has started at home versus sub .500 teams. Anderson is 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA in night games this season. Oakland has won four consecutive home games. The Reds are 17-47 during their last 64 away contests. That's a winning percentage of just 27 percent. Cincinnati is starting Sonny Gray. The A's know Gray well. Gray pitched for Oakland for five seasons starting in 2013. Gray hasn't been good since 2015 and is not in good form entering this matchup with a 5.28 ERA in his last three starts. Matt Olson is back from the injured list for Oakland. He slammed 29 homers and drove in 84 RBI's last year for the A's. There's a good chance Kris Davis is able to play, too, for Oakland. He has been out since Sunday and was close to playing last night, but was scratched at the last minute. Davis, Olson and Matt Chapman are the A's top power hitters.
05-03-19	A's v. Pirates -110	Top	14-1	Loss	-110	18 h 8 m	Show
The timing, pitching matchup and price all line up heavily for Pittsburgh here. The Pirates come home bolstered by a two-game road sweep of the Rangers. They catch the A's playing their worst ball, losers of six in a row all on the road having been swept by the Blue Jays and Red Sox. Oakland is giving up 6.2 runs during this losing skid and has lost five of the games by multiple runs. The A's can be dangerous at home, but are not nearly as good on the road where they have lost the past seven times. Oakland is 1-8 in Brett Anderson's last nine road starts. Anderson has failed to complete five innings during his last two starts. He gave up six runs on 10 hits and two walks in just 4 1/3 innings against the Blue Jays during his last start this past Saturday. The A's rely on the power of Khris Davis. However, Davis has gone homerless in his last 15 games. Davis is going to play the outfield, too, because there is no DH in National League parks. Davis is a well below average on defense. Pittsburgh starter Joe Musgrove has the third-lowest ERA in the majors at 1.54 through five starts and one relief appearance. Musgrove pitched for the Astros before coming to the Pirates. He is 1-1 with a 1.33 ERA in seven appearances against the A's, including three starts. A big non-pitching key for the Pirates is the return from injury of star outfielder Starling Marter. Pittsburgh was 1-9 without him. The Pirates are 13-5 with Marte in the lineup.
04-28-19	Padres v. Nationals -101		6-7	Win	100	5 h 44 m	Show
I don't see the Padres sweeping the Nationals at home. Washington has had its ups and downs, but has not lost four in a row all season. Padres starter Joey Lucchesi is helped by pitching at spacious Petco Park. He had a losing road record last season with a 4.24 ERA. San Diego is 1-4 in his last five road starts. Nationals starter Jeremy Hellickson had an 0.75 ERA in two starts against the Padres last season.
04-25-19	Diamondbacks +115 v. Pirates		5-0	Win	115	12 h 1 m	Show
Wrong favorite. Injuries have helped cool off the Pirates. Pittsburgh has dropped four in a row. The Pirates are without outfielders Starling Marte and Corey Dickerson among others and have been held to four runs or less in nine of their last 10 games. Arizona is 7-2 during its current road trip. The Diamondbacks also have owned the Pirates defeating them nine consecutive times in Pittsburgh. The pitching matchup is Zack Greinke versus Jameson Taillon. I like Taillon, but Greinke's current form and history make him the better choice. Greinke is 8-4 with a 1.03 ERA in 13 lifetime appearances against the Pirates. The Diamondbacks have won 10 of Greinke's past 14 away starts.
04-20-19	Blue Jays v. A's -135		10-1	Loss	-135	13 h 19 m	Show
I want the A's going for me in a bounce back spot. The Blue Jays knocked off Oakland, 5-1, Friday night. It was Toronto's first victory against the A's after losing all seven games to them last season. It also was a pitching matchup of Marcus Stroman versus Aaron Brooks, who shouldn't be in a big league rotation. Now the pitching matchup is righty Matt Shoemaker versus righthander Mike Fiers. Fiers is an ace when pitching in spacious Oakland Coliseum. He is 6-0 with a 2.38 ERA in his last 10 home starts. He hasn't been scored on in his last two home starts this season spanning 12 innings. Oakland is 8-1 (89 percent) in Fiers' last nine home starts. Toronto is 3-8 in its last 11 games against a righty starter.

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