Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-16-17 | Warriors -7 v. Celtics | Top | 88-92 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Boston very well may be the best team in the Eastern Conference. But if Golden State is fully motivated and plays well, which I believe the Warriors will do here perceiving a real challenge and starting a four-game road trip, no team can stay within double-digits of them. The Celtics are extremely well coached. Brad Stevens, though, doesn't have enough talent to match up up against Golden State's star-studded lineup and excellent bench. It doesn't help matters for Boston that Kyrie Irving is adjusting to playing with a mask on after suffering facial fractures. Boston has to step up big-time here. The Celtics have faced only two probable playoff teams in their last eight games. The Warriors average an NBA-best 119.6 points a game. They also are No. 1 in field goal percentage and assists and expect to have Stephen Curry back. Golden State's average victory margin is 19.9 points. The Warriors have won during each of their last four visits to Boston.
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11-15-17 | 76ers v. Lakers UNDER 219 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
A matchp of marquee rookies Ben Simmons versus Lonzo Ball is drawing all the attention in this game. What's lost is how much the Lakers have improved their defensive performance. The Lakers haven't just gone Under in their last four games, but way, way Under. They've gone Under by a combined 94 points during these last four games, which were against the Celtics, Wizards, Bucks and Suns. The Lakers have gone all the way from last in defense last season to fourth in points per 100 possessions this season. A strong commitment to defense, better rim protection courtesy of Brooke Lopez and Andrew Bogut and the horrendous shooting of Lonzo Ball has made the Lakers an Under team right now. Simmons is a great young talent. So is Ball. But I'm more interested in the spot and total. The Lakers' last four games all came on the road. This is their first home contest in nine days. The 76ers are finishing their five-game, nine day road swing here. They are coming off a 109-105 win against the injury-riddled Clippers on Monday. The Clippers defense has fallen apart. They had surrendered an average of 117 points during their previous three games before meeting the 76ers, who scored 109. So the 76ers' jump shots could be off due to tired legs, while the Lakers' concentration level might be off hurting their offense more than defense, which is their fallback position. Another factor in taking the Under is the 76ers and Lakers are the two worst free throw shooting teams in the NBA. |
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11-15-17 | Magic v. Blazers UNDER 211 | 94-99 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
Orlando is thin at point guard, struggles against big, physical teams such as Portland and the Trail Blazers rank third in many of the major defensive categories. Elfrid Payton has missed eight games with a hamstring strain. He still might not be 100 percent. This puts Orlando in a bind at point guard because second-string point guard D.J. Augustin remains out. The Magic are the sixth-highest scoring team in the NBA, but they built up their high scoring average early in the season when their point guards were healthy. Orlando has the second-best 3-point defense in the league holding foes to 31.7 percent shooting. The Trail Blazers heavily rely on their own star point guard, Damian Lillard. He's in a shooting slump, though, making only 32.6 percent of his shots from the floor during his last three games. Lillard is just 4-for-23 (17 percent) from beyond the arc during his last four games.
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11-15-17 | Wizards v. Heat -117 | 102-93 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
This is the first of a home-and-home series between these two teams. I like the Heat to protect their home turf knowing they'll be underdogs in the rematch Friday. Miami has defeated Washington five consecutive times, including four times last season. The Wizards are riding a three-game win streak. Those victories, however, occurred against the Lakers, Kings and Hawks. Before those games, the Wizards lost by 14 points to the Mavericks. So the combined record of Washington's last four opponents is 13-43. Miami is a couple levels higher than the bottom-feeding Mavericks, Kings and Hawks. Hassan Whiteside is back in rhythm after returning from a knee injury. He's played three strong games in a row giving the Heat the best inside player on the court and by far the best defender. The Heat showed improvement during their six-game road trip going 3-3. Their losses were to the Warriors, Pistons and Nuggets by one point. Those three teams are a combined 29-12. Miami finished its trip on Sunday so it has had ample time to get acclimitated to being home again.
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11-13-17 | Nuggets v. Blazers -115 | Top | 82-99 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
The Trail Blazers have matched up well to the Nuggets winning six of the past seven in the series, including going 3-1 last season. Yet the line opened around pick because Portland is just 6-6 while the Nuggets are 7-2 in their last nine games. Portland, though, could be 10-2 instead of 6-6 if close games had gone its way. The Trail Blazers rank No. 1 in rebounding percentage, hold a strong backcourt edge on the Nuggets with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum and rank fifth in 3-point percentage. Denver is in an odd scheduling spot. The Nuggets have played six straight home games. This is their first road game in 12 days. The Nuggets then return home to host New Orleans. That game doesn't come until Friday. Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last five road contests. The Nuggets beat Orlando, 125-107, this past Saturday night. The Magic, though, were without their two top point guards. The Nuggets rolled to an 18-point victory. Denver defeated Oklahoma City in its previous game before Orlando. So I don't believe the Nuggets will have as much intensity as the Trail Blazers will have. Portland has one of the best home-courts in the NBA. The Trail Blazers are off a surprising and hugely disappointing home loss to the Nets this past Friday. They had the weekend to steam about that defeat. Now they have an opportunity to vent that frustration in a favorable scheduling spot against a foe they've had good success against.
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11-12-17 | Heat v. Pistons -3 | Top | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Playing in their new Little Caesars Arena sure agrees with the Pistons. And why not? The new downtown arena is easier for their fans and gives Detroit an improved home-court edge. The Pistons have played well this season, especially at home going 6-1 at Little Caesars Arena. The Pistons have been home for nine days. They catch the Heat on the finale of a six-game, 10-day road swing. Miami is fat and happy winning three of their last four. The Heat's last two victories were by double-digits against the struggling offensively-challenged Jazz and bottom-feeder Suns. Now the Heat play an Eastern Conference foe, one that has the second-best conference record at 9-3. MIami is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games versus Eastern opponents and has failed to cover in five of its last six road games against the Pistons. Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson are having nice seasons for the Pistons. This could be Drummond's best all-around season. He's leading the NBA in rebounding. The Pistons should be motivated to close their homestand with a victory as nine of their next 11 games are on the road.
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11-11-17 | Cavs -5.5 v. Mavs | 111-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show | |
At 5-7, the Cavaliers are the most disappointing team in the NBA. Cleveland is in stop-the-pain mode having lost six of its last eight. Now they get to visit the doctor and get well - playing Dallas. The Mavericks are just 2-10, taking their place now among the five-worst teams in the NBA. Dallas, though, is coming off a stunning road victory against the Wizards this past Tuesday. The Cavaliers' major problem is lack of defense. Cleveland has surrendered at least 112 points in 10 consecutive games. But now the Cavaliers draw the Mavericks, one of four teams in the NBA averaging less than triple-digits. Dallas is 1-5 at home. Among the Mavericks' home losses were defeats to the Hawks and Kings. While Dirk Nowitzki closes out his career in quiet fashion - averaging 10.2 points a game and shooting 40.2 percent from the floor - LeBron James is as strong as ever. James is averaging monster numbers across the board: 29.3 points, 60.1 percent shooting, 8.9 assists and seven rebounds. James will never forget Nowitizki and Dallas beating his Miami team in the NBA 2011 championships series. The Cavaliers also won't forget losing to the Mavericks in Dallas last Jan. 30 during their previous meeting. Cleveland is idle on Sunday so a full effort should be forthcoming.
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11-10-17 | Heat v. Jazz -145 | 84-74 | Loss | -145 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
This is the Jazz's biggest game of the young season. Utah is in circle-the-wagons mode with a three-game losing streak, two of which have come at home. The Jazz were beaten by the 76ers in their last game this past Tuesday at Vivint Smart Home Arena. Utah had not lost to Philadelphia at home since 2005 when the 76ers had Allen Iverson. Utah has been solid as home chalk this season - 4-1 against the spread in that role - and I see the Jazz coming through here. Quin Snyder has had two full days to prepare Utah for this matchup. The Jazz certainly won't lack motivation. The Jazz still retain their excellent defense. Only three teams give up fewer points per game than Utah. Miami is off a satisfying 11-point win at Phoenix on Wednesday. This marks the Heat's fifth road game in eight days. So they carry a heavy fatigue rating, which could lead to sloppy play. The Heat entered that matchup against the Suns ranked 28th in turnovers so they are vulnerable to Utah's defensive pressure.
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11-09-17 | Pelicans v. Raptors -4.5 | 118-122 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 50 m | Show | |
Even though Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins are both playing great, the Pelicans are weak at the wings and lack a good bench. They also have played an easy schedule. New Orleans is riding a three-game winning streak. All of those victories have been on the road. But those wins have come against the Mavericks, Bulls and Pacers. This marks the end of the Pelicans' four-game, seven day road swing. Their intensity could be down after already going 3-0 during the first three legs of the trip. The Pelicans' lone win against a quality opponent this season was against the struggling Cavaliers. New Orleans has not beaten an above .500 team all season. Toronto is 6-4, but battle tested with three of its defeats occurring to the Warriors, Spurs and Nuggets on the road. The Raptors' other loss was to the Wizards in their first game back at home following a six-game road trip. The Raptors have been home now for five days and are healthy with Serge Ibaka and Jonus Valanciunas back in the lineup. Valanciunas is playing well and can factor against Davis and Cousins. The Pelicans are going to have matchup problems at the wing against All-Star DeMar DeRozan, who is averaging 29 points in his last three games. Unlike New Orleans, Toronto should have its full intensity after almost blowing a big lead in a victory against the Bulls on Tuesday. The Raptors don't play again until Sunday when they begin a three-game road trip so a full effort should be there. The Raptors have swept the Pelicans each of the past two seasons.
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11-08-17 | Knicks v. Magic UNDER 214 | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
Orlando really needs this game. The Magic have dropped two straight home games. This is the finale of their three-game homestand. After this matchup, the Magic take off to the West for consecutive road games against the Suns, Nuggets, Warriors and Trail Blazers. That's three likely losses there. So the Magic should play with lots of intensity. The Magic are in a good spot here drawing the Knicks, who will be playing for the third time in four days and without rest following a hard-fought 118-113 home win against the Hornets Tuesday night. The problem for the Magic is a cluster injury problem at point guard. Elfrid Payton isn't likely to play after feeling continued soreness and tightness in his strained left hamstring during Tuesday's practice. Second-string point guard D.J. Augustin already has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. That leaves reserve Shelvin Mack as the only healthy point guard available. Mack is a 39 percent shooter from the floor and not starter-caliber. Orlando has had to play with both Payton and Augustin out the past two games. The results were a two-game average of just 85.5 points in losses to the Bulls and Celtics. This wasn't just cold shooting and good defense by the opposition. The Magic's ofense was out of rhythm. They looked nothing like the team that had put 113 or more points during their first seven games. Not only do the Knicks carry a heavy fatigue rating, but this is their lone road matchup during a nine-game span. So the Knicks are likely to slow down the game looking to exploit 7-foot-3 inch Kristaps Porzingis' height advanatage against Aaron Gordon inside.
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11-07-17 | Grizzlies +3.5 v. Blazers | 98-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
Portland moved its record to 6-4 after beating Oklahoma City, 103-99, at home on Sunday. That was the Trail Blazers' first victory against a quality opponent. But just when you begin to believe the Trail Blazers are indeed a good team they disappoint. The Trail Blazers are now trying to win three in a row for the first time this season. Maybe they can defeat Memphis. But I'll take this many points to find out as I regard these teams as even and given Portland's below-the-radar big men injuries this becomes even a tougher matchup for the Trail Blazers. The Grizzlies are as rugged and physical as ever. They rank No. 3 defensively and have a much stronger bench than the Trail Blazers. Marc Gasol and Mike Conley are having big seasons. The Trail Blazers are going to have to compete on the boards against the Grizzlies minus injured power forward Al-Farouq Aminu and backup center Meyers Leonard. Memphis defeated the Clippers, 113-104 on Saturday, but then came up flat against the Lakers on Sunday losing 107-102 after a gallant comeback failed. So the Grizzlies should be highly focused for this game. Portland is a bit fat and happy having posted narrow home victories against the Lakers, 113-110, on Thursday and Thunder on Sunday. Not only did the Grizzlies defeat the Clippers, but they also have beaten the Warriors and Rockets twice. They are battle tested. Portland's victories have been against the Suns twice, Pacers, Lakers and Pelicans, who didn't have Anthony Davis, besides the Thunder win. So this is another step up game for the Trail Blazers. |
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11-05-17 | Jazz v. Rockets OVER 202 | 110-137 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
The Houston Rockets are averaging 107.2 points per game this season after averaging an NBA second-best 115.3 points last season. What gives? The Rockets haven't been as up-tempo and their 3-point shots haven't been dropping like last season. They rate 28th in 3-point accuracy compared to 15th last year while putting up the most 3-point shots. Things are beginning to change for the Rockets, however. Houston is coming off a 119-97 road win against the Knicks on Wednesday and a 119-104 road victory against the Hawks Friday. The key to these higher point totals is more fast-break points. Houston has averaged 17.5 fast break points in these past two games. That would rank second in the league if computed for a full season. Previous to these two contests, the Rockets ranked 23rd in fast break points at 7.5. The Rockets should start improving their 3-point shooting, too, with Trevor Ariza getting the rust off after being out. The Jazz are a top-two defensive team unlike the Knicks and Hawks. But the Rockets are looking to continue to push pace against Utah, which gives up an average of 99.6 points a game on the road. Utah has reached triple digits in its last three games. Rookie Donovan Mitchell has been a below-the-radar scorer putting up at least 22 points in three of his past four games. Ricky Rubio is a better Over point guard than George Hill was for Utah last season and Rodney Hood is back healthy.
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11-04-17 | Mavs +13.5 v. Wolves | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
Dallas could be among the five worst teams in the NBA. But this spots sets up well for the Mavericks. Minnesota is fat and happy riding a three-game winning streak. The Timberwolves' last two victories were on the road against the Heat in overtime and Pelicans. Minnesota hosts Charlotte on Sunday. All of the Timberwolves' victories have been close. Their biggest margin of victory is six points. Dallas is 1-9. The reality of being a lottery team is sinking in to the Mavericks, but they still have prideful veterans such as Dirk Nowitzki. Wesley Matthews and Harrison Barnes are solid pros. Dennis Smith Jr. brings high upside at point guard. The Mavericks lost 99-94 to New Orleans last night. Dallas was hurt by missing 25 of 34 shots from 3-point range. Matthews had an off-shooting night. Look for the Mavericks to shoot better as Minnesota ranks last in defensive efficiency and defensive field goal percentage. |
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11-03-17 | Pelicans -4.5 v. Mavs | 99-94 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
Dallas is one of the four worst teams in the NBA right now. The Mavericks are 1-8, their worst record since 1993-94. This proud franchise is in need of rebuild. The players know it. Rick Carlisle knows it. Mark Cuban knows it. All of the Mavericks' losses except one have been by five or more points. New Orleans is a serious playoff contender. No team can match the Pelicans' superstar Twin Towers of Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. Both rank among the top-five in scoring and rebounding. The Pelicans are going to hurt the Mavericks inside a lot. Dallas is one of the poorer rebounding teams in the league. The Pelicans, though, have lost consecutive games falling to the much-improved Magic and star-studded Timberwolves. This is the first of four road games in a row for New Orleans. The Pelicans should be focused and play with a great sense of urgency. That should ensure a victory here because the talent gap is huge. Dirk Nowitzki doesn't have much left. Rookie Dennis Smith Jr. is the Mavericks' main man now and he's mistake-prone with bad shooting percentages. The Mavericks don't have the components to take advantage of the Pelicans' major weakness, which is turnovers. Dallas ranks 29th in defensive field goal percentage. This is a major drop in class for the Pelicans after games versus the Cavaliers, Magic and Timberwolves. New Orleans has a good history of taking care of business against bad teams when on the road. The Pelicans have covered eight of the last 10 away times they've met a foe with a sub .500 record at home. |
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11-03-17 | Hornets v. Spurs -3 | Top | 101-108 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
First the bad news. San Antonio has lost four in a row and won't have Kawhi Leonard, its best player. Now the good news. The Spurs competed well last night. Unfortunately for them they were up against the world champion Warriors, who were on their game. When Golden State is on its game no team can beat them. No team can really stay close either. The Spurs are extremely tough at home, continue to receive strong play from LaMarcus Aldridge and will be primed to stop the bleeding against Charlotte, a foe they have beaten the past 10 times at home. San Antonio still has a strong bench despite missing Leonard and Tony Parker. Aldridge was the only Spurs player to log more than 31 minutes last night. Aldridge gives San Antonio the best frontcourt player. He's having a strong season averaging 23.6 points and 8.6 rebounds. The loss to the Warriors was the first one at home for the Spurs. They are 2-1 at home with victories against Minnesota (107-99) and Toronto (101-97). Both of those teams are at least a level higher than the Hornets. Charlotte is coming off a 126-121 home win against Milwaukee two nights ago. That was the Hornets' worst defensive game of the year. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The Hornets are a borderline playoff team in the much weaker Eastern Conference. I don't see them hanging close to the Spurs, who are in full stop-the-pain mode.
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11-02-17 | Warriors -7 v. Spurs | Top | 112-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Even the great Gregg Popovich can't just snap his fingers and have the Spurs immediately turn things around and beat Golden State. The Spurs are at low ebb returning home for the first time in nine days having lost three in a row falling to the Magic, Pacers and Celtics, 108-94, this past Monday. Golden State also has started slow, but the Warriors got their mojo back in a big way in their last game destroying the Clippers, 141-113. The Warriors are at full strength while the Spurs remain down Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker. The Spurs had to play without Leonard during the final three games of the Western Conference Finals against the Warriors and lost by an average margin of more than 20 points a game.
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11-01-17 | Bucks +3.5 v. Hornets | Top | 121-126 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
I prefer the Hornets taking points rather than laying especially against this opponent. The Bucks have beaten Charlotte during the past three meetings, including 103-94 at home 10 days ago. The Bucks beat the Hornets by nine points despite missing injured point guard Malcolm Brogdon, who is back from a sprained ankle. Giannis Antetokounmpo gives Milwaukee the best player on the court. Antetokounmpo has scored at least 28 points in every game while filling up all the statistical categories. He had 32 points and 14 rebounds in the earlier victory against the Hornets. Milwaukee lost at home to Oklahoma City last night. The Bucks were flat in that game. But only Kris Middleton logged more than 30 minutes. Look for a much stronger effort and performance from the Bucks here. Milwaukee is 7-1-1 ATS the past nine times when playing without rest. The Bucks also have covered in their last six visits to Charlotte.
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10-31-17 | Suns v. Nets UNDER 231 | 122-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
Phoenix's numbers are skewed because of a coaching change. In three games under Earl Watson, the Suns allowed 128.7 points a game and allowed opponents to make half of their 3-point shots. Jay Triano replaced Watson three games ago. In three games under Triano, the Suns are giving up an average of 105.7 points per game and holding foes to 36.5 percent shooting from beyond the arc. The Suns did play a pair of weak scoring teams - Kings and Jazz - under Triano. But there's no doubt Triano has made a difference in Phoenix's improved defensive play. The Suns are playing more intense under Triano. Their young players know they will be pulled if they have defensive lapses, which wasn't the case under player-friendly Watson. The Nets should have a lot of intensity, too. They've lost two in a row since upsetting the Cavaliers, falling to the Knicks and Nuggets in a pair of blowout defeats. The Nets averaged 98.5 points during those two defeats. D'Angelo Russell has emerged as the Nets' major scoring threat. He missed the Cavaliers game because of knee soreness. That absence may have put Russell out of rhythm. He played against the Knicks and Nuggets and was cold in both games shooting a combined 9-for-22 from the floor missing seven of eight 3-point shots. The Nets won't have Quincy Acy for this game either due to a groin injury. Acy leads the Nets in 3-point accuracy hitting 52.4 percent. The Under has cashed the past five times these teams have played in Brooklyn.
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10-31-17 | Kings +5.5 v. Pacers | 83-101 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
The Pacers are coming off a surprising 97-94 win against the Spurs two days ago. They have the suddenly vulnerable Cavaliers on deck Wednesday. But first comes this home game against the 1-5 Kings. It's a dangerous spot for the Pacers, who once again will be without their best big man, Myles Turner. He's out for a sixth straight game due to a concussion and sore neck. Domantas Sabonis has played well taking over Turner's minutes. Sabonis, though, is questionable because of a head cold. The Kings are in rebuilt mode. But they want to maintain some respectability, so they added veterans George Hill, Zach Randolph and Vince Carter. Sacramento is in stop-the-pain mode after being embarrassed, 110-83, by the Wizards at home this past Sunday. Hill and Randolph were held out of that game in order to give younger players more minutes. But Hill and Randolph will play against the Pacers. This is the first game of a three-game road trip for the Kings - and their best chance to win. Following this game, the Kings play at Boston and Detroit. The Celtics and Pistons are each 5-2.
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10-30-17 | Magic +7.5 v. Pelicans | 115-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
You may not have noticed it because they are below the radar and don't have a superstar, but the Orlando Magic are a much improved team. The Magic are the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA at 117.2 points a game. The Magic have been consistent in this, too, scoring at least 113 points in each of their six games. The 3-3 Pelicans are coming off an impressive 123-101 home rout of the Cavaliers. New Orleans has a bigger game on deck against fellow Western Conference foe, Minnesota, at home on Wednesday. It's easy to overrate the Pelicans because they have a pair of superstar big men. Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins are two of just five players in the league to average 25 points and 10 rebounds. Jrue Holiday is a decent point guard. But get beyond those three and New Orleans has questionable talent. Orlando lost 120-113 to Charlotte on the road Sunday. It's so early in the season and the Magic have a lot of youth so fatigue shouldn't factor. Before losing to the Hornets, the Magic had won three in a row, including defeating the Spurs and Cavaliers. The Magic beat the Spurs by 27 points and the Cavaliers by 21. You are worthy of respect if you win big against those two teams. Nikola Vucevic can be counted on for a double/double and Aaron Gordon is looking like one of the most improved players in the league. Evan Fournier can score and Jonathon Simmons is an intriguing talent, who scored 27 points against the Hornets. Note, too, that Orlando has defeated New Orleans in four of the last five meetings.
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10-30-17 | Spurs +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 94-108 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
When the games mattered, the Spurs did not lose three in a row during the regular season all last season. But now the Spurs have dropped consecutive games falling to the Magic and Pacers. I don't see them losing three straight. San Antonio has beaten Boston 11 in a row with six coming at TD Garden. Yet the oddsmaker sees no Kawhi Leonard and a hot Boston club that has won four in a row. The Celtics' win streak, however, has come against the 76ers, Knicks, Bucks and Heat minus Hassan Whiteside. The Bucks are the only one of that group with a winning record. The Spurs have a deep bench, Pau Gasol is playing better and LaMarcus Aldridge is off to a great start scoring more than 20 points in each of the Spurs' six games
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10-28-17 | Celtics -125 v. Heat | 96-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Boston is a better team than Miami. The Celtics are a much better team than Miami when the Heat doesn't have 7-foot center Hassan Whiteside, who will miss his fourth straight game due to a knee bruise. The Celtics have swept the Heat each of the last two seasons. Boston went 4-0 against Miami last season winning by eight and 10 points, respectively, at American Airlines Arena. Whiteside, who is far and away Miami's best player and probably the top rim protector in the Eastern Conference, played in all four of those defeats. The Heat win with defense. Their defense has suffered without Whiteside. Miami ranks third-from-last in defensive field goal percentage and second-to-last in 3-point defense. The Heat are yielding 108.5 points a game, which puts them in the bottom 10 in scoring defense. The Celtics were stunned when Gordon Hayward went down in their opening game. It took the Celtics a couple of games to get over that and also for Brad Stevens to start finding the right rotation. After an 0-2 beginning, Boston has won and covered its last three games, including beating the Bucks on the road, 96-89, two nights ago in its last game. Boston ranks 20 places higher than Miami in the latest defensive rankings. The Celtics don't have a powerful inside game, but Al Horford is off to a good start and Kyrie Irving can take advantage of Miami's vulnerable perimeter defense. The Heat opened their season playing three probable lottery teams - Orlando, Indiana and Atlanta. They finally drew an elite foe, San Antonio, in their last game and lost by 17 points at home. The Celtics aren't in the Spurs' class. But they are at the next level, which is a clear level higher than the Heat especially when minus Whiteside.
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10-27-17 | Wizards v. Warriors UNDER 231.5 | Top | 117-120 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
It's easy to think offense with so many great scorers in this matchup. That's why the total is set so high. The opener is the highest total of the season for both the Wizards and Warriors. It's set too high in my view. I understand, though, why the oddsmaker has to set such a high over/under here. The Warriors have been more about offense. Their defense has slipped. The Wizards are perceived as far more of an offensive team than defensive one. Golden State is surrendering 113.6 points a game this season. That's nine more points per game than they allowed last season. This hasn't escaped the attention of Steve Kerr and Draymond Green. Kerr criticized his team's execution and Green, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, ripped the Warriors for their horrible defense. The Warriors rank 25th defensively and 18th in defensive field goal pecentage. Last year, the Warriors were No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defensive percentage. Improvement on the defensive end is coming - and I see it occurring starting now. The Wizards' main strength is a high-scoring backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal. Wall, though, is in a shooting slump hitting just 10-of-35 shots from the field in his last two games. Washington ranks third-from-the-bottom in 3-point shooting. So the Wizards are going to have to earn a fair share of their points inside, which is tough to do against Golden State. If you play Rotisserie basketball like I do, you'll know that Kevin Durant leads the NBA in shot-block percentage averaging three a game. Green is a defensive monster. This is the third of the Wizards' four-game road trip. The Wizards entered their road swing emphasizing playing stronger defense. They did that in their last game holding the Lakers - a top-10 scoring team - to 92 points in regulation. The Wizards, however, lost that game, 102-99, in overtime two days ago. The Wizards might have got caught peeking ahead to this matchup against the world champs. So Washington's intensity should be way up, too.
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10-27-17 | Thunder -120 v. Wolves | 116-119 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
I expect Jimmy Butler to play. The Timberwolves have been awful without him. But they haven't been that good with him either. Minnesota didn't play defense last season and there hasn't been any improvement this season. The Timberwolves are last in defensive field goal percentage and 26th in scoring defense. The Thunder, on the other hand, are strong defensively. Each team has stars, but only Oklahoma City plays good defense. This also is short revenge for the Thunder. They where stunned by the Timberwolves at home this past Sunday when Andrew Wiggins hit a long 3-point at the buzzer. That game was poorly officiated with a number of key decisions going against the Thunder at the end. Maybe the Timberwolves will get their act straighten out now that they've upgraded their talent level. But right now the Thunder are the better team and they are going to be highly motivated.
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10-26-17 | Pelicans -118 v. Kings | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
I'm not expecting Anthony Davis to play. It's a monster bonus if Davis were to play. I'm not counting on that, though. The Pelicans are better than the Kings even if Davis is out after tweaking his knee in the Pelicans' last game two days ago. An MRI exam did come back negative. DeMarcus Cousins has been pointing to this game all summer in his return to Sacramento. Cousins is off to a great start averaging 31 points, 12 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 3.3 blocks. Yet, the Pelicans are just 1-3. All of their losses have been against tough foes - Grizzlies on the road, Warriors and Trail Blazers on the road when Davis got hurt five minutes into the game. New Orleans took care of business against the Lakers beating them, 119-112, in LA this past Sunday. The Kings are in that bottom rung with the Lakers. This is the Kings' first home game following a three-game road trip. The Kings have a lot of youth and new faces. They are going through an ajdustment period. They also are not used to the national spotlight as this is a rare TNT game for them. The Kings can work as an underdog play. It's too much to expect them to win straight-up.
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10-25-17 | Jazz v. Suns OVER 203 | 88-97 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 35 m | Show | |
Miami finished last season strong, but is a lackluster 2-1 this season with its victories coming against probably lottery-bound Indiana and Atlanta. The Heat's loss occurred against Orlando. Now the Heat face their strongest opponent by far - San Antonio. And the Heat have to play the Spurs without their best player, center Hassan Whiteside. He remains out with a left knee bruise. That's not Miami's only injury. Goran Dragic, the Heat's second-best player, has a bruised thigh and Dion Waiters has a sore ankle. Oddsmakers are downgrading the Spurs because they don't have injured Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker. San Antonio, though, has outstanding depth. LaMarcus Aldridge has handled the heavy lifting averaging 24.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. Dejounte Murray has filled in admirably well for Parker at point guard averaging 13.3 points, a team-high 9.7 rebounds and a team-high 4.7 assists. Parker would be hard-pressed to match those numbers. San Antonio also has covered eight of the last nine meetings between the two clubs.
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10-25-17 | Spurs -3.5 v. Heat | 117-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
Miami finished last season strong, but is a lackluster 2-1 this season with its victories coming against probably lottery-bound Indiana and Atlanta. The Heat's loss occurred against Orlando. Now the Heat face their strongest opponent by far - San Antonio. And the Heat have to play the Spurs without their best player, center Hassan Whiteside. He remains out with a left knee bruise. That's not Miami's only injury. Goran Dragic, the Heat's second-best player, has a bruised thigh and Dion Waiters has a sore ankle. Oddsmakers are downgrading the Spurs because they don't have injured Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker. San Antonio, though, has outstanding depth. LaMarcus Aldridge has handled the heavy lifting averaging 24.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. Dejounte Murray has filled in admirably well for Parker at point guard averaging 13.3 points, a team-high 9.7 rebounds and a team-high 4.7 assists. Parker would be hard-pressed to match those numbers. San Antonio also has covered eight of the last nine meetings between the two clubs.
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10-25-17 | Pacers v. Thunder -14.5 | Top | 96-114 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
Not only are the Thunder far superior to the Pacers - especially with big man Myles Turner out for Indiana - but the spot sets up perfect for Oklahoma City. The Pacers just stunned the Timberwolves, 130-107, on Tuesday night. Now this young Pacers squad has a second straight road game playing at Chesapeake Energy Arena, one of the toughest venues in the league. The Pacers then return home and don't play again until Sunday. They've been on the road since Saturday. I can't see the Pacers producing a strong effort here. I do see the Thunder motivated for a kill spot. Oklahoma City has been sitting around stewing since losing 115-113 at home on Sunday to Minnesota when Andrew Wiggins banked in a 3-pointer at the buzzer to give the Timberwolves a stunning victory. The Thunder were victimized by several bad calls at the end in what was one of the worst officiated games of the season. A subplot to this matchup is Paul George going against his former teammates. George will be psyched for this matchup as he didn't like how his exit was handled by the Pacers. This would be a tough matchup for the Pacers even if they had Turner, their best player, shot-blocker and rim-protector. Without Turner, who remains out with a concussion, the Pacers may be the worst team at defending the paint. Minnesota scored more than half of its 107 points in the paint against Indiana last night. Russell Westbrook, George and Carmelo Athony can take advantage. These three superstars would like to put on a show for their home fans. This is a golden opportunity for them.The stage is set.
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10-24-17 | Knicks v. Celtics UNDER 209 | Top | 89-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
The Knicks rank second-to-last in scoring and have one of the worst backcourts in the NBA. The Celtics held the high-scoring Cavaliers to 102 points in their first game. The Celtics are trying to find their offense after losing Gordon Hayward in the opening game. Boston ranks fourth from the bottom in field goal percentage. Brad Stevens is trying to find the right rotation with so many new faces. The Celtics have been idle for the past three days. That's too long of a spell not to be in game action this early in the season. Stevens is a high caliber coach who will make good use of that time. But there could be a rust factor in the Celtics' shooting for this game. The Knicks have played only two games, tied for the least amount. They are trying to figure out their offense, too, in a post Carmelo Anthony era. Kristaps Porzingis is New York's only reliable scorer. The Knicks should be fired-up, though. Not only is this a division rivalry matchup, but New York is coming off a blown 21-point lead in a home loss to the Pistons this past Saturday.
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10-23-17 | Wizards v. Nuggets UNDER 223 | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
This high total is based on reputation not reality especially when it comes to the Nuggets. Denver is 27th in scoring averaging 96 points and third in defense holding its two foes to an average of 92 1/2 points. Usually those statistics are the opposite. Not this season, though. The Nuggets are playing at a very slow pace. They are getting little scoring production at point guard with Jamal Murray and Emmanuel Mudiay shooting a combined 10-for-34 from the floor for 29 percent. Big man Nikola Jokic has scored seven points in two games. The Nuggets have no dangerous scoring option with Danilo Gallinari no longer on the team. They are searching for scoring options knowing they won't get it from their point guards. The Wizards have opened 2-0 averaging 117 1/2 points in dispatching the 76ers and Pistons at home. That's one reason why this total opened so high. The Wizards are putting emphasis on improving their defense. They were idle during the weekend having last played on Friday. So their shooting could be a little rusty - this is their first road game - but the energy should be there for a strong defensive effort.
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10-23-17 | Raptors v. Spurs -150 | 97-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
San Antonio has defeated Toronto eight consecutive times at home, including 110-82 last season. Yes, Kawhi Leonard remains out. But Toronto also has a key injury as its best big man, Jonas Valanciunas, won't play because of a sprained ankle. The Raptors are 2-0. Those victories have come against a pair of winless teams, the Bulls and 76ers. This is a huge step up for the Raptors. It's also their first road game. The Spurs have a history of playing to the level of their competition. They showed this by knocking off the much-improved Timberwolves in their opener. The Spurs then defeated the Bulls, 87-77, on Saturday. San Antonio is playing outstanding defense holding the Timberwolves to 43.5 percent shooting from the floor and the Bulls to 37.8 percent. LaMarcus Aldridge has thrived in Leonard's absence averaging 26.5 points and 10 rebounds. Toronto's bench isn't as strong as it was last season either.
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10-22-17 | Pelicans -3.5 v. Lakers | Top | 119-112 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
The Lakers not only were last in the NBA defensively in giving up points per 100 possessions last season, but they had the worst mark in that key defensive category this decade. LA's defense doesn't look much better this season either. But all the publicity is about rookie point guard Lonzo Ball. He is an exciting talent. But he's also a poor shooter - 13-for-33 from the floor - and he doesn't play much defense. Same with his backcourt mate Brandon Ingram. They could be the worst defensive backcourt in the NBA. The Lakers were blown out in their opener by the Clippers and then defeated the Suns, who could be the worst team in the NBA. Now they get the Pelicans. New Orleans is dropping way down in class. The Pelicans opened with a road loss against the unbeaten Grizzlies, who just upset the Warriors last night, and then lost at home to the Warriors, 128-120. The Pelicans played well in that defeat. They would have beaten many teams with that display just not the defending world champions. The Pelicans are putting a lot of emphasis on getting their first victory here. They should dominate the frontcourt with Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. Both monsters are off to strong starts as they get more and more comfortable with each other. Davis is averaging 34 points and 17.5 rebounds while Cousins is putting up 31.5 points and12 rebounds per game.
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10-21-17 | Spurs -9.5 v. Bulls | 87-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
Even if Kawhi Leonard doesn't play, the Spurs should win this game by double-digits. The Bulls were looking like the worst team entering the season - and things have gotten even worse for them. Already down Zach LaVine and Kris Dunn, the Bulls now are without Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis. The Bulls JV roster can't compete with the Spurs. The question here for San Antonio is motivation. I believe the Spurs will have it. They've had problems in the past at United Center, including losing to the Bulls in Chicago last season. San Antonio should be well-prepared. The Spurs last played on Wednesday. They are off on Sunday. So the effort should be there. Certainly the talent gap is there.
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10-20-17 | Jazz v. Wolves OVER 198.5 | Top | 97-100 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 21 m | Show |
There is too much star power here for these teams not to combine to break 200 points. Yes, Utah plays tough defense. But Minnesota doesn't. The Timberwolves ranked third-from-the-bottom in defensive field goal percentage last season. Adding Jeff Teague and Jamal Crawford isn't going to help their defense. But the Timberwolves do have plenty of offense with Teague, Crawford, Taj Gibson and Jimmy Butler joining Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins. The Jazz are down their two leading scorers from a year ago, Gordon Hayward and George Hill. Utah's new point guard, Ricky Rubio, is a former Timberwolf and is better for the Over than Hill was. Rubio will be motivated for a big performance as this is his first trip to Minnesota since being traded. The Jazz have balanced scoring and a strong bench to make up for Hayward. Alec Burks finally is healthy and contributed 16 points off the bench in just 15 minutes in Utah's 106-99 home win against the Nuggets two nights ago. Utah played at a quick pace during preseason when it averaged more than 112 points a game. The Jazz aren't so half-court inclined anymore with Quin Snyder.
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10-20-17 | Magic +2 v. Nets | 121-126 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 50 m | Show | |
Orlando actually looked impressive in holding off Miami during its opening game victory. That was the first time the Magic had won its season opener since 2012. The Magic really would like to build off that momentum. They have a great opportunity here in their second game. Brooklyn is even worse than Orlando and just lost sparkplug point guard Jeremy Lin. The Nets lost 39 of 46 games that Lin missed last season. It was extremely depressing for the Nets to see Lin ruputre the patella tendon in his right knee during their 140-131 season-opening loss to the Pacers. As you can tell by that score, the Nets still aren't playing any defense. Orlando has the better lineup with Elfrid Payton, Terrence Ross, Even Fournier, Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon, who is primed for a breakout season.
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10-19-17 | Clippers v. Lakers UNDER 220 | Top | 108-92 | Win | 100 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
This is a big total that would make sense - if it were posted on a Clippers-Lakers game last season. Things are much different this year. The Clippers don't have Chris Paul. The Lakers have Lonzo Ball. Both are among the reasons I like this game to go Under the total. The Clippers' offense is less explosive minus Paul. That's a no-brainer. But the Clippers' backcourt becomes much more hard-nosed with the change from Paul to rugged Patrick Beverley, one of the best defensive guards in the NBA. Ball is the Lakers' new main man. He's a great passer, but not a high percentage shooter. Ball was limited to only 57 minutes during preseason because of a sprained ankle. He'll play tonight, but will have to deal with Beverley and the pressures of his first NBA game and the super high expectations the home fans have for him. The Lakers gave up the third-most points in the NBA last season. Lakers coach Luke Walton made it a priority during preseason to stress defense. The Lakers allowed an average of 103.5 points per game in their six exhibition games. "...I'm thrilled with the strides they're making," Walton was quoted as saying about the defensive progress his team showed during preseason. The Lakers acheived this without Andrew Bogut, who missed the preseason with a groin injury. Bogut, though, practiced this week and should play. He provides a shot-blocking presence for the Lakers that the Clippers have with DeAndre Jordan, another top defensive player. |
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10-18-17 | Rockets v. Kings +8 | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show | |
Sacramento has missed the playoffs for the last 11 seasons. The Kings aren't going to end that playoff drought this season either. But the Kings have better team chemistry and morale after cutting the umblical cord with temperamental DeMarcus Cousins. Sacramento is more team-oriented without their one star The Kings have a blend of promising young talent go with three veterans that were imported - Zach Randolph, George Hill and Vince Carter. These three are pros who know how to win, play hard and have a lot of pride. The Kings should be fired-up for their home opener and they catch the Rockets in a prime letdown spot. Houston rallied to upset the Warriors, 122-121, late last night. It's going to be difficult for the Rockets to produce even a "B" level performance against a foe that is hard to take serious. The Rockets also could be looking ahead to their home-opener, which is their next game.
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10-18-17 | Wolves v. Spurs -120 | Top | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 18 h 6 m | Show |
San Antonio has won the last 11 times these teams have met. Circumstances are different now. The Spurs won't have injured Kawhi Leonard and Minnesota has its best team ever - on paper. Still, I like the Spurs to defeat the Timberwolves. Minnesota added Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague. They join Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins. Both Towns and Wiggins are used to being top dogs in Minnesota and getting their hands on the ball a lot. The dynamics change now with Butler and Teague coming on board. Butler is a top-15 player. Teague is a very offensive-minded point guard. It's going to take time for this group to jell and get in sync. Opening at San Antonio, one of the toughest venues in the NBA, is a rough way to begin. The Timberwolves have yet to show they can play good defense. The Spurs are the best-coached team in the league. They've added Rudy Gay and LaMarcus Aldridge played well in preseason in filling some of the scoring void without Leonard. The Spurs picked up valuable experience playing without Leonard in the Western Conference Finals against the Warriors. This is a step down for them playing the Timberwolves instead of Golden State.
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10-18-17 | Nuggets v. Jazz -130 | 96-106 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show | |
Utah finished with the best preseason record in the NBA going 5-0. I see the Jazz in better shape than the Nuggets right now. The Jazz also are home, where they have defeated the Nuggets five consecutive times, including winning two games last season by an average of 16 points. Not only are the Jazz home, but they are one of the best defensive teams in the league and have a strong bench. This was a team that won 51 games last season. The oddsmaker is down on Utah because the Jazz lost their two leading scorers, Gordon Hayward and George Hill. Hayward, though, was more of a complementary scorer not a top dog while Hill missed a lot of games and because of that could never be counted on. Ricky Rubio is more than capable of being a solid point guard for Utah. The Nuggets have an underrated front line. But they are going against the best defensive center in basketball, Rudy Gobert. Denver has a problem at point guard. The Nuggets would like to move away from Emmanuel Mudiay and his poor shooting percentages. They are trying to convert Jamal Murray into a point guard. This key position is a trouble spot for the Nuggets and is likely to hurt them in this matchup.
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10-18-17 | 76ers +7 v. Wizards | 115-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
Memo to oddsmakers: Tank time is over for the 76ers. Given the 76ers' awesome young talent - all healthy at last - and the horrific injury to Gordon Hayward it wouldn't shock me if the 76ers made a run at the Atlantic Division title this season. Philadelphia finished last season covering 13 of its last 17 road games. The 76ers showed they are serious about winning this season upgrading their bench with veterans J.J. Redick and Amir Johnson to go with Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Markelle Fultz and Dario Saric. The Wizards have failed to cover in their last EIGHT season-openers. Their rotation is down Markieff Morris, which hurts their defense that wasn't very good last season.
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10-18-17 | Heat -145 v. Magic | 109-116 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
The Heat finished 30-11 last season and begin the season healthy with all of their players back from last season. If it weren't for injuries and a horrendous first half of the season, the Heat would have made the playoffs and maybe even been a post-season factor. Miami has won its last six season openers, including beating the Magic by 12 points last year in its first game. The Heat are a much superior team to Orlando and have a coaching edge, which has added emphasis in a season-opener when both coaches have had ample time to game plan. Miami covered 63 percent of its away games last season. Orlando is headed for the lottery again. The Heat should challenge Washington for the Southeast Division title. Class difference here and the price is right to get involved.
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06-09-17 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 229 | Top | 116-137 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
There is just one day of rest between Game 3, which was Wednesday night, and tonight's Game 4 in this NBA Championship Series. It makes a difference. Yet the total is the highest it has been all series. It makes sense on the surface to post the highest over/under since the last two game have gone above the total. But let's look closer at the numbers and human factor involved in this Game 4. First, the numbers: Golden State won, 118-113, in Game 3 to go up 3-0 in the series. That was a combined 231 points. The Warriors and Cavaliers together made 43 of 49 free throws for 88 percent. Golden State shot 78.8 percent from the foul line during the regular season. Cleveland made only 74.8 percent of its free throws in the regular season. So expect the free throw shooting accuracy to drop. There were 103 points scored in the second half during Game 3. That averages out to 206 for the entire game. The Cavaliers do like to run. However, LeBron James and Kyrie Irving were seriously gassed at the end of Wednesday night's game as well as they should have been each having logged more than 44 minutes. James and Irving are the only Cavaliers playing well. So I envision a slower tempo from the Cavaliers in this do-or-die spot. The Cavaliers can't run with the Warriors, who have more depth and better offensive talent, and they know this.
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06-07-17 | Warriors -3 v. Cavs | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 42 h 1 m | Show |
This is supposed to be the Cavaliers' game to win, right? The Zig/Zag theory points that way and so does the normal situational thinking of Cleveland down 2-0 in the series now returning home in a must-win spot. The oddsmakers think that way, too, having made a six-point adjustment in the line. There's just one problem with all this pro-Cavaliers thinking. It's entirely faulty because Cleveland simply isn't in Golden State's class. The Warriors have won by 22 and 19 points, respectively. Oh, I fully expect the Cavaliers to play as hard as ever at Quicken Loans Arena. They probably will produce their best game of the series - but it won't even be enough to even cover the spread. The Cavaliers couldn't come within 19 points of the Warriors in Game 2 and that was playing with exceptional intensity and coming up with 15 steals when Golden State had only five. The Warriors also will be highly motivated remembering the Cavaliers rallying from a 3-1 deficit last year to caputre the championship in seven games. They aren't going to give the Cavaliers any hope of that occurring again by letting up. The addition of Kevin Durant - who has more than lived up to his superstar status - has made the Warriors a team for the ages. They are in the discussion as greatest team ever with tremendous firepower and excellent defense. Cleveland can't defend the Warriors. It's that simple. The Cavaliers can't match Golden State's scorers and they lack elite defenders. LeBron James doesn't have nearly enough help to deal with Durant, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and Co. Tristan Thompson is boxed out. J.R. Smith is a bust. Kyle Korver and Deron Williams have been exposed. Tyronn Lue is a weak coach. So just forget this must-win talk surrounding the Cavaliers. The bottom line here is this is a cheap lay price. |
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06-04-17 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 220.5 | Top | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
The Cavaliers and Warriors didn't come close to going Over the total in Game 1 of their NBA Finals this past Thursday won by Golden State, 113-91. There were reasons for this namely that the Cavaliers shot less than 35 percent from the floor and Golden State made only 42.5 percent from the field and shot only 16 free throws. Now we have a Game 2 total that is nearly five points lower than Game 1. I don't believe this big of an over/under adjustment is justified. The pace for Game 1 was up-tempo. The superstarts - LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant - all had big games. The shooting just was off. That's understandable since the Cavaliers hadn't played in a week while the Warriors had been idle for nine days. That's a lot of rust. Now the teams have been idle for just two days. Until Game 1, the Cavaliers had scored 106 or more points during their previous 13 playoff games. Cleveland went into Game 1 averaging a playoff-high 118.3 points per 100 possessions. Golden State ranked No. 2 in the playoffs at 115.4 points per 100 possessions. Each team rated among the top three in offensive efficiency during the regular season, too. Key Cleveland reserves Deron Williams and Kyle Korver failed to score in Game 1 going a combined 0-for-7 from the field. Golden State committed only four turnovers. The Warriors led by 21 entering the final period and took their foot off the gas scoring only 20 points after putting up 93 points through the first three quarters. Draymond Green and Klay Thompson combined to miss 22 of 28 shots from the floor, making only one-of-10 from beyond the arc. Thompson has been in a shooting slump, but it's hard to believe that either of these star players can shoot that bad again especially if the Cavaliers try to pay extra attention to Durant. |
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06-01-17 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 227 | Top | 91-113 | Win | 100 | 107 h 27 m | Show |
By the time this game tips off on Thursday night, Cleveland will have gone a week without playing. The wait was even longer for Golden State, which last played on Monday, May 22. But because the Cavaliers averaged 116.8 points during the playoffs and Warriors put up 118.3 points per game in the postseason we have a very high total in this Game 1. Yes, I'm well aware of all the superstars participating here - LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Draymond Green, Kevin Love and Klay Thompson. But there's going to be a huge rust factor. This opening game is a matchup of wills and strategy. Both sides have had ample time to game plan. This isn't an All-Star game. There will be defensive intensity. Offense immediately comes to mind when thinking about these two teams. Each is underrated defensively, though. If you discount the 111 points they gave up to the Celtics when they lost their intensity in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals, the Cavaliers have surrendered an average of 97.8 points in their last six games. The Warriors finished No. 1 during the regular season in defensive field goal percentage and in defending against 3-pointers. If you don't include the 115 points they allowed to the Spurs in their Game 4 sweep of the Western Conference Finals, the Warriors are yielding 99.5 points in their last eight games. The Warriors also get back ace defender Andre Iguodala. He's a key defensive chess piece for acting Warriors coach MIke Brown. If anybody can game plan to defend against James it's Brown, an astute defensive-minded assistant who knows James well from his head coaching days in Cleveland.
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05-22-17 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 217 | 129-115 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
It sure looks like the Warriors are going to sweep the Spurs in these Western Conference Finals. But let's concentrate on the total instead. The total has gone over each of the first three games. The result is we now have the highest over/under of the series for this Game 4. Zigging and zagging in the NBA playoffs doesn't just pertain to the side. It also applies to the total. This is the time now to go under. The Warriors are shooting 49 percent from the floor during the series. They made 49 percent of their field goals during the regular season, too. But the Warriors also have made 42.5 percent of their 3-point shots against the Spurs. That is high for them as they averaged 38.3 percent from beyond the arc in the regular season. The Spurs are a premier defensive team. During the regular season, they gave up the second-fewest points per game at 98.1, ranked fourth in defensive field goal percentage at 44.3 and were fifth in 3-point defense at 34.4 percent. So the Warriors' shooting percentage is due to come down. Yes, Kawhi Leonard was important to the Spurs' defense. But his lost contributions are felt far more on the offensive end. The Spurs are minus Leonard, Tony Parker and probably David Lee, who suffered a knee injury in Game 3 and is doubtful. That's a lot of lost offense. Really the only way for the Spurs to hang with the high-flying, loaded Warriors is to slow the pace down. There's no way their bigs, role players and youngsters - which now comprise the makeup of the team - can keep up with Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson. The Warriors are an underrated defensive team, too. They ranked No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense during the regular season. Golden State isn't going to lose its intensity especially after what happened to the Cavaliers on Sunday against the Celtics. This is a close-out game for the Warriors. But acting coach Mike Brown is a former assistant to Gregg Popovich. He's not going to do anything to embarrass his former mentor like run up a score. Popovich, for his part, isn't going to have his team act like jerks by committing a lot of needless fouls at the end.
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05-21-17 | Celtics +17.5 v. Cavs | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
OK, at this price I'll bite. This is the Eastern Conference Finals after all and we are talking the Boston Celtics not the Washington Generals. This line is super inflated because Isaiah Thomas is done for the playoffs with a hip injury and Cleveland has destroyed the Celtics by 13 and 44 points, respectively, during the first two games of the series. No, the Celtics aren't pulling off an upset for all-time here. But they will play hard after suffering the worst home playoff loss in franchise history. And this is the proudest of franchises, too. Brad Stevens is an excellent coach. I'd take hime over Tyronn Lue in a heartbeat. The Celtics do have depth. They are capable of playing much better. The Cavaliers can't help but put things on auto drive especially now returning home. I can't see Cleveland playing with a great deal of intensity after such a pair of easy victories.
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05-20-17 | Warriors v. Spurs +7.5 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Sure it's a monster plus if Kawhi Leonard plays today. Not only is he the best two-way player in basketball, but the mental lift he would provide would be enormous. I think Leonard will test his injured ankle and give it a try. The teams last played on Tuesday. So he's had three full days of recovery. Doctors found no structural damage to his ankle. If he plays, this spread is well worth getting involved. However, I'm not counting on Leonard playing. Yet I still believe the Spurs are worth backing in a home underdog role down 0-2 in this Western Conference Finals and in must-win mode. The Spurs can't help but be super fired up especially after taking a verbal beating from their Hall of Fame coach, Gregg Popovich, after being embarrassed 136-100 in Game 2. The Spurs are a prideful, veteran crew that showed it could win without Leonard when they buried the Rockets by 30 points on the road to close out their semifinal series. Golden State has lost a staggering 25 of 27 times at AT&T Center. This includes a 2-3 mark under Steve Kerr. So the Spurs' home-court advantage can not be underestimated. The Warriors also could be minus Andre Iguodala and starting center Zaza Pachulia. Their potential absence is being overlooked in all the hoopla surrounding Leonard's status. That would really hurt the Warriors' defense and leave their bench thin. Both are questionable due to injuries. Iguodala had the best plus-minust average in the league of all reserves who played in at least 50 games.
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05-19-17 | Cavs -5 v. Celtics | Top | 130-86 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
Can the Celtics end the Cavaliers' 12-game playoff win streak? No. Boston clearly is outclassed here. The Cavaliers rolled past the Celtics, 117-104, in Wednesay's series opener. The scary thing about that 13-point victory was the Cavaliers were rusty having not played for nine days previous to that. The 13-point final also was misleading. The Cavaliers blew out Boston. The Celtics scored a lot of meaningless points during the second half when the outcome was not in doubt. LeBron James is playing great. The Celtics have no answer for him. But Kyrie Irving only scored 11 points on Wednesday. He's capable of much bigger things. The Celtics just can't match up to the Cavaliers especially in the frontcourt. Sure Brad Stevens is going to make some adjustments. But just what can Stevens do? He doesn't have the personnel to stay competitive with the Cavaliers. The Celtics have some fatigue. They just finished a grueling seven-game series against the Wizards. This marks their third game in five days. The Cavaliers are totally fresh and won't be rusty now.
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05-17-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +5 | Top | 117-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
If Boston is ever going to steal a game in this Eastern Conference Finals this is its opportunity. The Celtics are home, playing well and have momentum. The Cavaliers last played on May 7. Being idle a full nine straight days is way too much especially at this juncture of the season. Not only does this prolonged time off potentially slow down the Cavaliers' mometum, but strongly suggests a rust factor. The key is are the Celtics good enough to take advantage? They weren't two years ago when the Cavaliers swept them. They are now. Boston has covered nine of its last 11 games, including its past five home contests. The Celtics have played three strong games in a row in blowing out the Wizards in Game 5, falling by one point on the road and then winning by double-digits in Game 7 at home on Monday. This is a short turnaround for the Celtics, but they were idle yesterday and didn't have to do any traveling having finished off the Wizards at home. The Celtics are not an old team either. They have enough legs, momentum and energy - fired-up by everyone completely ruling out their chances to win this series - to produce a strong effort here and take advantage of Cleveland's long layoff. During the regular season, the Celtics were 2 and 4-point favorites, respectively, in their two home games versus the Cavaliers. Now look at the spread. OK, this is the playoffs and the Cavaliers won't be holding back. But I'd still say this is line value. The Celtics also get a coaching edge with Brad Stevens against Tyronn Lue. LeBron James is going to bring it. He's the King. But Isaiah Thomas has raised his game to superstar level and he hasn't tailed off in the playoffs averaging 25.4 points during the postseason. Thomas is coming off a monster Game 7 clutch performance against the Wizards where he had 29 points, 12 assists and committed only two turnovers. Al Horford is having a strong playoffs, too, averaging 16.1 points, 7.5 rebounds, 5.8 assists and shooting 63.9 percent from the floor. Horford's confidence is sky high in his outside shooting as he's made 21 of 36 3-pointers for 58.3 percent. Horford being hot from 3-point range is the Celtics' secret weapon and a matchup problem for the Cavaliers, who wouldn't be able to pay such strict attention to Thomas.
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05-14-17 | Spurs +10.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-113 | Win | 100 | 32 h 13 m | Show |
These two teams met at Oracle Arena to begin the season way back on Oct. 25. The Spurs were 8 1/2-point underdogs for that one. Final score: San Antonio 129, Golden State 100. OK, much has changed since then with one of them being Tony Parker is out with a ruptured quad. But not everything has changed to the detriment of San Antonio and for the betterment of Golden State. Mike Brown is now the acting coach for the Warriors with Steve Kerr ill. Brown is a much better assistant coach than head man. He can't compare to Gregg Popovich when it comes to head coaching. I've been following basketball for more than 50 years and Popovich is the best head coach I've ever seen. Certainly he's in the top-five all-time. The Spurs are riding the momentum of beating Houston, 114-75, as 8 1/2-point road 'dogs to close out that series. That happened on Thursday. So the Spurs won't be rusty, but also have had two full days of rest and preparation. Golden State, on the other hand, hasn't played since Monday. That's too much time off between games. The Warriors very well could lose their edge because of the extended time off. Golden State has failed to cover seven of the last nine times when having had three or more days off. If the Warriors come out rusty, off-kilter and cold they won't even win the game let alone cover this monster double-digit point spread. The Spurs outrebounded the Warriors, 55-35, in that opening night victory. Golden State gave up 21 offensive rebounds, the most it allowed all season. Now the Warriors have become more cohesive since then, but rebounding remains a crucial area. The Spurs have a height advantage and two dangerous low-post scorers in Pau Gasol and LaMarcus Aldridge, who got hot late in the Rockets series showing his criics that he is not overrated. "If we give up offensive rebounds and they take more shots than us, it's going to be hard for us to win," Kevin Durant was quoted as saying when asked about this series. Golden State has reached the NBA Finals each of the last two seasons. Neither time, though, did they meet the Spurs in the playoffs. So playing such a mentally tough and well-coached team in the playoffs is going to be a new experience. San Antonio is 13-6-1 the past 20 times when meeting a foe with a winning percentage above .600. I respect the heck out of the Warriors. They have super talent. But the Spurs are not exactly chopped liver. As great as Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant are, I would take Kawhi Leonard over anybody as far as being a two-way player. Leonard should be close to full strength, too, having been idle the past two days. Popovich has the necessary defenders to throw at Curry, Durant and Klay Thompson with emerging Jonathon Simmons, Danny Green and Patty Mills, who is replacing Parker at point guard. Parker is a savvy veteran, but Mills is underrated and in his prime. Parker was over-the-hill. The Spurs also have Dewayne Dedmond, a below-the-radar player who has the necessary athleticism to bother Golden State. The Spurs can milk their size. The Warriors can't do that. They need to hit their outside shots. San Antonio ranked No. 2 in fewest points allowed per game. The Spurs also rated fourth in defensive field goal percentage and fifth in 3-point defense. Given all these factors plus the situation, it's my strong belief that this point spread is way out of whack. |
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05-12-17 | Celtics v. Wizards UNDER 216 | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
Zigging and zagging in the playoffs doesn't just pertain to the sides. It also applies to the total. The past two games in this series have gone over with the combined scores adding up to 223 and 224 points. The last three games have been blowouts. I don't see that pattern continuing here. This is the time to switch gears and go Under the total. The Celtics have averaged just 95.2 points during their two playoff games at Verizon Center. The Celtics, though, will play with strong intensity. So will the Wizards with their season on the line and off a lackluster embarrassing Game 5 performance where they lost by 22 points at Boston. Look for each team to play their best transition defense of the series. There are no secrets nor surprises between these two teams anymore. Not going into Game 6. Boston has been getting unbelievable play from Al Horford, who is shooting 69.4 percent from the floor and hitting 58.8 percent from 3-point range. Horford is a good player, but those figures can't be sustained.
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05-09-17 | Rockets v. Spurs OVER 214.5 | Top | 107-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
Houston was the second-leading scoring team in the NBA during the regular season averaging 115.3 points per game. The Rockets got back on track offensively in beating the Spurs, 125-104, this past Sunday at home in evening the series at 2-2. The bad news for Houston was losing Nene for the rest of the playoffs after he suffered a torn adductor. One of the keys to today's Game 5 is figuring out the ramifications of Nene's absence. I believe it's one of several factors that point to this total going Over. Ryan Anderson is going to get most of Nene's minutes now at center. Anderson isn't a center. He's far more of an outside shooter - and a good one - than an interior player. Rockets coach Mike D'Antoni is making no secret that he's going to try to win this series by playing up-tempo, small ball conceeding the Spurs a big inside advantage. D'Antoni wants to win by using his team's strength, which is firing up 3-pointers with as many great shooters as he can put on the court. If James Harden and Eric Gordon are forced to cover San Antonio big men, LaMarcus Aldridge and Paul Gasol, so be it. "We can keep scoring with them," D'Antoni was quoted as saying following Nene's injury. "And if they get a little flurry, we get one. They had trouble stopping us on the other end. You've really got to hold your breath a little bit because we have to play that way. That's how we play and it's not a safe way to go, but you've got to exploit what you have. That's team we have."
This is what Anderson was quoted as saying, "The more fast-paced tempo we have the better." So the Rockets aren't going to adjust. They are going to play their style. Houston hit 19 of 43 3-pointers during Sunday's Game 4 for 44 percent. Cleveland led the NBA in 3-point percentage at 43.4 percent. The Rockets made just 12 of 39 3-pointers in Game 3 for 30.7 percent. However, the Rockets were just cold in that game as they missed on 19 of 24 3-pointers in which they had an open look at the basket. Houston is going to get its points from beyond the arc. Harden is going to do his thing. But the Spurs also are going to get plenty of points, too, because of their inside dominance. San Antonio shot 64 percent from the floor during the last two quarters of Game 3. The Spurs shot 49.4 percent from the field in Game 4. They only produced 104 points in that game because they missed nine of 18 free throws. The Spurs ranked seventh in free throw percentage during the regular season at 79.7 percent. Bottom line here is that D'Antoni knows the Spurs are going to score plenty of points in the paint against his smaller team especially with Nene out. He doesn't care. His approach is ride his team's strength of shooting 3-pointers in the belief that more 3's outweigh two-point field goals. That's D'Antoni's style and it certainly is condusive to an Over happening. The Spurs have gone above the total in 10 of their last 12 games, including 8-2 in the playoffs. Only once has the under cashed during the past eight meetings between the two teams in San Antonio. |
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05-08-17 | Warriors v. Jazz OVER 206 | Top | 121-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
Golden State only put up 102 points on the Jazz in Game 3 this past Saturday. That was with its backcourt aces, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, combining to miss 22 of 29 shots from the floor. The pair were just 3-of-15 from 3-point range. Kevin Durant showed he was back in rhythm. The Jazz can't stop all of the Warriors' great scoring weapons. Utah, though, is going to play with tremendous offensive energy and should shoot better than 70 percent from the foul line like it did in Game 3. It's a plus for the Jazz if point guard George Hill can suit up after missing the last two games with a toe injury. There isn't just a zig zag to the side in these playoffs. It can also work on the total, which is the case here after the last game fell 14 1/2 points short of going over.
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05-07-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -4.5 | Top | 102-121 | Win | 100 | 32 h 3 m | Show |
After outplaying the Celtics for stretches during the first two games of the series, the Wizards broke through this past Thursday in Game 3 winning by 27 points. I like the Wizards to win again at Verizon Center, where they covered 57 percent of the time during the regular season and are 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS during the playoffs. The Wizards blew out the Celtics in Game 3 despite their dynamic backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal missing 20 of 31 shots from the floor, including nine of 11 3-point attempts. Wall has logged a ton of minutes so having an extra day of rest with two full days in between games should help him. The Wizards' frontcourt outplayed the Celtics and now Washington has big man Ian Mahimmi back in the rotation. It's telling that the Wizards rolled past the Celtics at home in Game 3 despite poor shooting from their backcourt, which is the strength of their team.
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05-05-17 | Cavs -2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 115-94 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
The Raptors found themselves down 2-0 in their Eastern Conference Finals playoff series against the Cavaliers last year after losing the first two games in Cleveland. Toronto returned home and beat Cleveland by 15 points holding the Cavaliers to 84 points. Will history repeat itself? No. There are too many differences from last season starting with how great the Cavaliers are playing. Cleveland is averaging 120.5 points in the series winning by 11 and 22 points, respectively. LeBron James is playing at an "A" level, which is the highest form of basketball. His teammates also are playing at peak efficiency. The Cavaliers aren't going to forget what happened last season when they went to Toronto up 2-0 in the series. They will be mentally focused to go with their outstanding court performances. Not only do the Raptors face a supreme challenge of slowing down the Cavaliers - something they have yet to do - but they likely will be without All-Star point guard Kyle Lowery. He didn't practice Thursday after suffering a badly sprained ankle during the third quarter of Wednesday's Game 2. Even if Lowery can give it a go, his effectiveness is going to be extremely limited. He only kept playing on the ankle in Game 2 because it didn't stiffen up. "Kyle is our driving force, our point guard, our leader," DeMar DeRozan was quoted as saying about Lowery. "So for us not to have him anything close to 100 percent, it would be difficult on us." DeRozan is the Raptors' other key player and he's cold scoring only five points in Game 2. DeRozan is frustrated, but the Cavaliers can just keep clamping down on him giving him no space while none of Toronto's guards and wings step up. DeMarre Carroll and Patrick Patterson are a combined 3-for-17 shooting from the floor. Yes, the Raptors will be super motivated. But it's asking too much of them to turn around their offense - just like a light switch - especially with Lowry hurt, while suddenly slowing down the unstoppable James and putting an end to the Cavaliers' hot shooting from 3-point range. All of that would simply defy logic - and basketball.
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05-04-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -5 | Top | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
Call it playing the Zig/Zag theory if you care to. But I want the Wizards going for me at home down 0-2 in their series against Boston. Not only only has the home team covered each of the last six times these two teams have met, but the Wizards have played the Celtics tough controlling each of the first two games for various stretches. The Wizards should have easily covered in Game 2, but lost in overtime by 10 points. Isaiah Thomas had a came for the ages pouring in 29 of his 53 points during the fourth quarter and overtime in memory of his 23-year-old sister, who died on the eve of the playoffs. This time it's the Wizards' turn to play with great emotion. They have been outstanding at Verizon Center this season covering 57 percent of their home games. As great as Thomas has been, I would take John Wall over him as the best player on the court. The key for the Wizards is getting better front court production. That should happen here with Marcin Gortat and Markieff Morris being able to avoid foul trouble at home. Morris proved he had overcome a sprained ankle suffered in Game 1 by playing a strong Game 2. However, he fouled out in just 27 minutes.
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05-01-17 | Rockets v. Spurs -5.5 | Top | 126-99 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
It's not a coincidence the Spurs have a strong record of success in the opening game of a playoff round. Gregg Popovich is the best coach in the NBA and he's ready to go, well prepared. San Antonio opened with a 29-point home win against Memphis this season in their first series game. Last year, the Spurs beat both the Grizzlies and Thunder by 32 points apiece in their respective series openers, both in San Antonion. Then, two years ago, the Spurs defeated the Clippers by 27 points when they played their first series home game. Now the Spurs host the Rockets, who have failed to cover in 11 of their last 14 games. The Rockets were able to take advantage of the Thunder in their first-round playoff series despite shooting just 28.4 percent from 3-point range. The Rockets live and die more than any team with 3-point shots leading the league in attempts at 40.3 per game. San Antonio not only ranks fifth in 3-point defensive field goal percentage but led the league in 3-point accuracy making 39.1 percent from beyond the arc. The Spurs shot 41 percent from 3-point range against the Grizzlies in their first-round series. The Grizzlies were a much stronger defensive team than the Thunder. Then there is the Kawhi Leonard factor. The Rockets ranked 26th defensively. The Spurs, by contrast ranked No. 2 defensively, giving up 11 fewer points than Houston per game. The Rockets have no one who remotely can guard Leonard, who averaged 31.2 points in the series against the Grizzlies while shooting 54.8 percent from the floor and making 59 of 61 free throws. There isn't a better two-way player in basketball. The Rockets' main man, James Harden, has been bothered by an ankle injury. He shot just 13-of-41 for 31.7 percent from the field in Houston's last two games.
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04-30-17 | Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 111-123 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Let's rewind to each team's opening playoff series. The Wizards showed a lot of heart and ability to make necessary adjustments in beating the Hawks. John Wall played great and a number of role players came through. The Wizards enter this Game 1 with a lot of well-earned confidence. The Celtics lost the first two games of their series against the Bulls with both defeats coming at home. Then Chicago lost point guard Rajon Rondo. The Bulls were forced to fill his spot with a pair of stiffs, Isaiah Canaan and Jerian Grant. The result was four straight losses. Now Boston, which could have been eliminated if Rondo didn't get injured, has to step up and deal with Wall at point guard instead of Canaan. Wall averaged 29.5 points and 10.3 assists against the Hawks. The All-Star is playing his finest ball making a strong statement that he is a superstar. The Celtics' big scorer is Isaiah Thomas, who doesn't play defense nearly as well as Wall. Thomas averaged nearly 29 points during the regular season, but was held six points below his average against the Bulls. Thomas' shooting was off, especially from 3-point range where he missed 23 of 26 during the last three games. It's understandable that his mental focus is affected by the recent death of his sister. The Wizards should be more effective in the frontcourt, too, where they don't have to deal anymore with Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard. I find Al Horford overrated and Kelly Olynyk, Tyler Zeller and Amir Johnson are lunch-bucket role players. Note, too, that Boston has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 home games. |
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04-28-17 | Clippers +6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 98-93 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
I'm not ready to write off the Clippers. Not with them getting this many points in a must-win spot down 3-2 in the series. The Clippers' three losses in the series have been by a combined 13 points, an average of 4.3 points per defeat. The Clippers led by seven points with seven minutes left before losing Game 4 and they erased an 11-point Utah fourth-quarter lead in Game 5 before falling. The Clippers outscored the Jazz during the fourth quarter of Game 5. Now I like the Jazz. But I don't see their entitlement to lay this many points. What have they accomplished to earn this right? The last time Utah won a playoff series was seven years ago. They don't have the experience, or proven background, to close out a series favored by this many points. Just two years ago, the Clippers beat the Spurs on the road, 102-96, in a first-round playoff series after losing Game 5 at home. Yes, the Clippers accomplished that with Blake Griffin, who won't play today because of a toe injury. Griffin isn't the Clippers' best player, though. Chris Paul is and he gives the Clippers not only veteran leadership but the best player on the court. Big man DeAndre Jordan is the Clippers' second most valuable player. He can neutralize Rudy Gobbert. That matchup is a standoff. But Paul makes the Clippers very dangerous in this spot. The Clippers also have back guard Austin Rivers. He played 18 minutes in Game 5 after being out nearly a month with a hamstring injury. The Jazz have been fortunate that Joe Johnson has stepped up for them. He's Utah's second-leading scorer in the series averaging 18.2 points shooting 53.4 percent from the floor. During the regular season, Johnson averaged 9.2 points and shot 43.6 percent from the field. So he's due to cool off.
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04-27-17 | Spurs v. Grizzlies +4.5 | Top | 103-96 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
There are no secrets this late in the second-round of the playoffs. Each team has won on its home-court. I see that pattern continuing here. The Grizzlies have beaten and covered the last four times they've hosted the Spurs, including Games 3 and 4 of this series. Kawhi Leonard is a monster. But Marc Gasol and Mike Conley give the Grizzlies the second and third-best players on the court. Conley provides the Grizzlies a backcourt edge as Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli are past their prime. Memphis' role players step up better at home, too. The Spurs were impressive in Game 5. But that was in San Antonio and the Spurs shot 52.5 percent from the floor, hit 14 of their 28 3-pointers and shot nearly 82 percent from the foul line. I don't see that happening in Memphis. The Grizzlies ranked third in fewest points allowed per game and also were third in defensive field goal percentage during the regular season.
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04-26-17 | Bulls +8 v. Celtics | Top | 97-108 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
I'm not expecting Rajon Rondo to play in this Game 5. But I still like the Bulls to cover the number. Emotions and tensions have been raised in this series now that it's down to a two-out-of-three. Boston lacks the playoff experience and postseason record to close out teams let alone win by decent-sized margins such as this point spead. The Celtics are 2-5 SU and ATS in the playoffs under Brad Stevens. Their two victories occurred in overtime and by eight points, both against Atlanta. The Bulls, led by Jimmy Butler and Dwayne Wade, are 2-0 at TD Garden in the series. Boston has covered just one of its last nine home games. The Bulls, by contrast, have played well on the road covering eight of their last 10 away contests, including going 7-0 ATS the last seven times facing foes with a winning home mark. Chicago also is 7-1 ATS in its next game following a loss where the Celtics are 8-18 ATS after winning in their previous game. Stevens adjusted well following the Bulls winning the first two games of the series. His major change was going with a smaller lineup inserting Gerald Green into the starting five. The Celtics held the Bulls to a combined 40.1 percent shooting from the floor in evening the series by winning the last two games in Chicago. The Bulls now have had two games to get used to Boston's new lineup and not having Rondo to run their offense. The Bulls aren't a great shooting team, but they still shot 44.4 percent from the floor during the season.
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04-25-17 | Thunder +7.5 v. Rockets | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 21 h 32 m | Show |
Have to believe the Thunder can keep this game close trying to stave off elimination after having the Rockets edge them out in Oklahoma City this past Sunday. Houston has failed to cover in 10 of its last 13 games. Only once during their last 13 games have the Rockets won by more than seven points. Russell Westbrook is playing at the top of his game, while James Harden is dealing with an ankle injury. Harden was held to 16 points on 5-of-16 shooting from the floor on Sunday. He missed all seven of his 3-point shots. The Rockets, though, were bailed out by 34-year-old Nene, who scored 28 points on 12-of-12 shooting from the field. The Thunder's role players are due to play much better especially against such a vulnerable defense as the Rockets. Victor Oladipo, Steven Adams, Enes Kanter and Andre Roberson are all better than they've show so far in the series. |
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04-24-17 | Wizards +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
The Wizards are the better team and John Wall is the best player on the floor. The major question, though, is Washington mature enough to win on Atlanta's home court? I believe they are. The Wizards have a huge backcourt edge with Wall, who is averaging 31 points and 10 assists in the series, and Bradley Beal. They have helped force the Hawks to commit 51 turnovers so far in the series. The Hawks came back to soundly beat Washington, 116-98, at home in Game 3. But now the Wizards will be much better prepared. I see the Wizards having the poise to match the Hawks' intensity, which was at its peak in Game 3.
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04-23-17 | Rockets +1.5 v. Thunder | Top | 113-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
After losing the first two games in Houston, Oklahoma City needed to step up at home in Game 3. The Thunder did that - but barely winning 115-113 on Friday. Look for the superior team - Houston - to play better in this Game 4 and get the victory. The Rockets should play with more of a sense of urgency especially early after letting the Thunder build too big of a lead. Houston also is due to shoot better from 3-point range after hitting only 10 of 35 in Game 3 for 28.5 percent. The Rockets shot 35.7 percent from beyond the arc during the regular season. Russell Westbrook is a Triple Double machine. He's going to get his numbers. But James Harden is just as good and the Rockets have the better scoring role players with Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson and Lou Williams. I don't envision Taj Gibson having another monster performance like he did for Oklahoma City on Friday. The Rockets have dominated the Thunder from a pointspread perspective going 11-2 ATS during the past 13 meetings, including 6-0 ATS during the past six at Oklahoma City.
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04-22-17 | Spurs -3.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
If Golden State isn't the best team in the NBA than San Antonio is. The Spurs showed their dominance during the first two games of the series winning at home by 29 and 14 points, respectively. On Thursday, the teams played Game 3. Everything set up for the Grizzlies in that matchup. The Grizzlies were playing at home for the first time, David Fizdale had set up the officials by bitterly complaining after Game 2 and the Grizzlies' Big Three of Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Zach Randolph all stepped up. The Grizzlies also got "A" type performances from their young role players. Game 3 was Memphis' time to win and the Grizzlies did just that, 105-94. Gregg Popovich, who I have long regarded as the best coach in basketball, may have hoisted the white flag in that game in order to set up a victory in this Game 4. A disgusted Popovich pulled all five of his starters less than a minute into the second half with his team trailing by nine points. All of this leads me to strongly believe the prideful and superior Spurs are going to step up here. If they do, the Spurs will win handily even if the Grizzlies can somehow conjure up a second straight "A" game performance, which I don't see happening. Memphis is 1-5 ATS following a victory, didn't play well down the stretch losing four of their last five regular-season games and has lost 10 of their last 11 playoff games to the Spurs.
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04-21-17 | Clippers -110 v. Jazz | 111-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
My handicap here can be summed up this way: The Clippers are the superior team and the Jazz won't have star center Rudy Gobert. The Jazz managed to ambush the Clippers in Game 1 with Gobert missing nearly the entire game. But the Clippers regrouped and took advantage of Gobert's absence to win Game 2 by eight points. Both DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin had big games with the Jazz minus Gobert. Griffin scored 24 points while Jordan made 9 of 11 shots from the field and pulled down 15 rebounds. The Clippers outscored the Jazz by 22 points in the paint and outrebounded them by eight. Chris Paul has been dominant at point guard. If the Clippers get anything from streak shooters J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford - who are a combined 12 for 37 in the series from the floor - they could win handily.
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04-20-17 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 196.5 | Top | 77-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
There were only 180 points scored in Game 1 of this series won by the Bucks, 97-83. But there were 206 points scored in Game 2, won by the Raptors, 106-100. So, what to make of this matchup with the teams going to Milwaukee now for Game 3? I see the final score looking far more like Game 1 so I'm on the Under. The Bucks have averaged just 91.7 points during their last seven games. That would rank last a good six points away from the next lowest-scoring team if computed during the entire season. The Raptors are givng up just 90.7 points during their last seven road games. The under has cashed in 16 of Toronto's past 21 road games. The Raptors are an underrated defensive team after trading for Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker. A key is the Raptors found a way to slow down superstar Giannis Anteokounmpo. They held him to 9-of-24 shooting from the floor in Game 2. Toronto and Milwaukee combined to make 25 of 52 3-point shots in Game 2 for an amazing 48 percent from beyond the arc. Toronto made 36.3 percent of its 3-pointers during the regular season while the Bucks converted 37 percent of their 3-point shots. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Bucks have a bad offensive game due to nerves and the pressure of playing their first playoff game at home. Bucks coach Jason Kidd has been stressing defense. If you discount a meaningless regular season road finale against the Celtics in which their best players sat out, the Bucks are surrendering only 87.5 points in their last four games. The under is 16-4-1 the past 21 times an oponent has scored triple digits on the Bucks in the previous game. Kidd is showing his commitment to defense by giving more minutes to Matthew Dellavedova and Thon Maker at the expense of Tony Snell and Greg Monroe. Dellavedova has the worst shooting percentage of any of the regular rotation players for Milwaukee during the playoffs while Maker is strictly a defensive type player with limited offensive skills. The two teams have a strong under bias, too, having gone below the total in nine of their last 12 meetings.
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04-20-17 | Cavs v. Pacers +2.5 | 119-114 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
The Cavaliers head into Indiana up 2-0 in the series. Cleveland won its two home games by an average of 3.5 points. The Pacers are a far better team at Bankers Life Fieldhouse going 29-13. The Cavaliers have a losing road record. They have a bad history at Indiana, too, going 1-6-1 ATS during their last eight visits. From a pointspread perspective, the Pacers have dominated this series going 10--2-1 ATS. Fiery Paul George can match LeBron James with his will to win. George is averaging 30.5 points, seven assists and five 3-points in the series. Myles Turner is due to play much better, which should happen at home. The Pacers have been excellent when having two days between games covering 21 of the last 27 times in that situation. This really is the Pacers' season. The Cavaliers can't be trusted in this spot with their lack of defense and poor road record.
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04-19-17 | Thunder +8 v. Rockets | Top | 111-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
It's rare to see the Thunder getting this many points. But that's what happens after the Rockets destroyed the Thunder, 118-87, in Sunday's Game 1. I don't see a repeat. James Harden is a strong MVP candidate and Houston has the No. 2 ranked offense. But their defense isn't nearly as good as it looked in Game 1. Not only did Russell Westbrook have a rare off-game, missing 17 of 23 shots from the floor while committing nine turnovers, but shooting guard Victor Oladipo made only one of 12 shots from the floor. Oklahoma City's front line also played poorly losing the rebound battle by 15 boards. I see the prideful Westbrook and Oklahoma City bouncing back. The Thunder's underrated frontcourt shouldn't get outrebounded by the Rockets and Westbrook is due some calls in his personal battle with Harden, who schooled him in the opener of the series. Oklahoma City improved its road play down the stretch winning seven of its last nine regular season away contests while going 6-3 ATS. The Thunder also have covered five of the last six times when playing on two days rest. Until shellacking the Thunder, the Rockets had failed to cover in their last nine games.
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04-18-17 | Jazz v. Clippers OVER 195.5 | Top | 91-99 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
This total is lower than the closing 198 from Game 1. There were 192 points in that opening matchup won by the Jazz, 97-95. I understand why the oddsmaker adjusted this Game 2 total lower than in Game 1. Early activity in the marketplace has been to the under making the total even lower. Both the oddsmaker and marketplace are over compensating. They are each overreacting to Game 1. The Clippers haven't had a total this low since Christmas Day when they played Dallas, the lowest-scoring team in the NBA. Prior to Saturday's opener, the Jazz had scored 103 or more points in seven of their last nine games. The Clippers had scored at least 112 points in six of their previous seven games. The Jazz are expecting the Clippers to play very aggressive this game. I agree. That starts with Chris Paul, who very much remains an elite point guard. On paper, Paul had a good Game 1 with 25 points and 11 assists. But he still could have been more aggressive. The Clippers' point total was really hurt by J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford missing 12 of 19 shots from the floor and six of seven shots from 3-point range. They are much better scorers than that. Utah finished as the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA. A big reason for that was center Rudy Gobert. He's a strong candidate for Defensive Player of the Year honors after leading the league in blocked shots and finishing fourth in rebounding. Gobert, though, is out with a hyperextended knee. Gobert's absence is going to open the middle for Paul to penetrate. The Clippers are going to get their points here playing at home down 0-1 in the series. The question is can Utah put up its share of points to get this total over? I believe they will. Point guard George Hill is finally healthy. He shot well in Game 1 making 7 of 13 shots from the floor. The Jazz's second best point guard is Raul Neto. He's been out for more than a week due to a sprained ankle. But he said he's ready to play today. The Jazz have to play more small ball minus Gobert. That means a quicker pace and more minutes for Derrick Favors, who made 7 of 10 shots from the field in Game 1, and veteran Joe Johnson. Johnson still can score as evidenced by his 9 of 14 shooting from the floor in Game 1, but his defense has slipped. So he's good for the over.
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04-16-17 | Blazers v. Warriors OVER 219.5 | 109-121 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
I understand there is usually a feeling out process during the first game of a playoff series. But I still see this total as being short. Portland has adjusted to being without big man Jusuf Nurkic by going short playing without a center. Nurkic's status is questionable versus the Warriors. But I like the total to go over regardless if he plays or not because the Trail Blazers still are going to play small ball. Golden State, of course, is the ultimate small ball team so there's going to be an up-and-down pace. The Trail Blazers were the eighth-highest scoring team in the NBA averaging nearly 108 points a game. They also were well below average defensively ranking 25th in scoring defense and 27th in defending 3-pointers. Golden State led the NBA in scoring and shooting percentage while also ranking third in 3-point shooting. If you discount a 99-point performance against Utah, the top defensive team in the league, the Warriors averaged 117 points in their last eight games. The Warriors enter this matchup with their top nine players healthy, a rarity for them. Kevin Durant has been back for three games now. The rust is off. Durant served notice he's back to his dominant scoring way by going for 29 points in 27 minutes during the Warriors' final regular season game. When they've had Durant, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala on the court at the same time, the Warriors have outscored foes by an average of 23.9 points per 100 possessions. This is a lineup the Trail Blazers can't slow down. The two teams also have a strong over bias when playing each other with the over cashing 18 of the past 24 times.
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04-15-17 | Bucks v. Raptors -7 | Top | 97-83 | Loss | -103 | 28 h 36 m | Show |
Forget Cleveland and Boston. The best team in the Eastern Conference right now very well could be Toronto. The Bucks have been playing well, but their playoff inexperience can really hurt them in this opening game especially playing in Toronto. The Raptors have dominated the Bucks beating them seven of the last eight times with the lone loss coming when the Raptors were missing Kyle Lowery. The Raptors won 10 playoff games last season. They are better this season with Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker added to the mix upgrading their defense. Lowery and DeRozan also enter the playoffs far less fatigued than last season due to missing time with injuries. Lowery missed 21 games during the second half of the season because of a wrist injury. Toronto finished the post All-Star break ranked in the top-five in defense and rebounding. No other team can make that distinction. By contrast, Milwaukee ranked 19th defensively and 24th in rebounding. The last time the Bucks won a playoff series was 2000-2001. The Raptors are 25-4 the past 29 times holding an opponent under 100 points. The Bucks finished the regular-season averaging just 88.2 points during their past five games.
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04-12-17 | Spurs +4 v. Jazz | Top | 97-101 | Push | 0 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
Gregg Popovich said he won't be resting players against Utah tonight. I take Popovich at his word especially since the Spurs are 1-3 in their last four games. Popovich doesn't want his team entering the playoffs flat plus the postseason won't start for a few more days so there's a rust factor he wants to avoid. So expect a strong effort from the Spurs. It's a bonus they are getting this many points. Utah knows it's not going to overtake the Clippers to earn the fourth-seed in the West and get first-round home-court advantage. Not when the Clippers are 15 1/2-point home favorites against the Kings tonight. Either way, the Jazz will be meeting the Clippers in the first-round of the playoffs. The Jazz have bigger priorities. They need to get the rust of point guard George Hill, who played on Monday against the Warriors after missing six games with a strained right groin. The Jazz have to get three starters - Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors and Rodney Hood - all healthy along with backup point guard Raul Neto. All of them missed Utah's last game. It's not a given they all will play against the Spurs. Hayward would be especially missed being the Jazz's top offensive player. The Jazz have a terrible track record, too, versus Western Conference foes going 8-22-1 ATS the past 31 times facing them.
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04-12-17 | Bucks +14 v. Celtics | 94-112 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
The Celtics need to win this game to clinch home-court advantage for the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Bucks are going to make it easy for them by resting Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Matthew Dellavedova and Tony Snell. The Bucks are doing this because they are locked into the No. 6 seed and will meet Toronto in the first round of the playoffs. The pointspread has been adjusted to reflect this situation. It's my view the spread is too out of whack in favor of Boston. It's one thing for Boston to win. It's another for the Celtics to cover an overinflated spread, something they've had problems doing. Only once in their last 13 games have the Celtics won by more than 10 points. The Nets hung in against Boston two nights ago on the road losing by nine points. The combination of the Bucks' remaining players being as good as Brooklyn's and the Celtics not playing that well make me believe Milwaukee will cover this number. The Celtics can't help but be overconfident in this spot knowing who the Bucks are sitting out. If you discount holding the disjointed Knicks to 94 points, the Celtics are giving up an average of 112.8 points in their last eight games. This is Boston's fifth game in eight days. So the backdoor will be fully open if the Celtics should open a big lead. The Celtics have covered only two of their last nine games, too. The Bucks haven't allowed more than 82 points during their last two games. They've split two games with Boston this season with the outcomes being decided by one point in overtime and by three points. So that has been a very tight series. The obvious question is how wounded will the Bucks be minus Antetokounmpo and Middleton, their two best players? The Bucks will be impacted eough where they have no shot of winning the game straight-up. However, star rookie point guard Malcolm Brogdon has returned from a back injury. He's Milwaukee's third-best player. The Bucks also have their fourth-best player in reserve Greg Monroe. Mirza Teletovic and Michael Beasley, who has had a surprisingly decent season, will play. So the Bucks aren't desolute.
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04-11-17 | Nuggets v. Mavs OVER 212.5 | Top | 109-91 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
This is a matchup of the No. 3 scoring team, Denver, versus the lowest-scoring team, Dallas. The Nuggets average 111.8 points, third-best in the league. The Mavericks score just 98 points per game. So why a play on the Over when on paper this total looks to be lined correctly? If we go inside the numbers and look into the setting for this matchup it becomes clear the Over has a very good chance of coming in. The spot is this: Both teams are eliminated from playoff contention. So this becomes a no-pressure game that should have a loose, offensive-feel to it. The Mavericks are going with a lot of young, seldom-used players now. They have fresh legs, important this late in the season. But Dallas also will have back its leading scorer, Harrison Barnes. He rested during the Mavericks' last game, but will play here. Barnes averages 19.2 points. Denver ranks 27th defensively yielding 111.5 points per contest and also ranks second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage. Making this atmosphere even more loose is that this is Tony Romo's "Maverick for a Day" game. The former Cowboys starting quarterback is going to sit on Dallas' bench in uniform. The Nuggets should get their points. If you discount their performance against the Pelicans, the Nuggets have averaged 119 points during their last 13 games. They've often played better on the road where the over has cashed in six of their last seven away contests. The Mavericks are giving up an average of 109 points in their last four games, including allowing 124 to the Suns during their last game this past Sunday. Phoenix shot 55 percent from the field in that game. This game also is lined in the pick range so overtime is a possibility. |
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04-10-17 | Nets +11 v. Celtics | Top | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Boston isn't playing well enough to cover this inflated number. The Celtics have surrendered 114 or more points in four of their last five games. The Celtics have failed to cover during their last five home games and are 2-6 ATS the past eight times meeting below .500 teams. On tap for Boston is a revenge game against the Bucks at home on Wednesday. Brooklyn has been under the radar going 11-11 in its last 22 games, including going 4-1 in its last five games. The Nets have been getting contributions from unsung players such as Caris LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie and Rondae-Hollis Jefferson. Brooklyn is more respectable with Jeremy Lin healthy. Brook Lopez is having a nice season, too. The Nets have covered in seven of their last nine away contests. Only once in their last 14 games have they lost by double digits. They rank 12th in points per game so they have the offense to take advantage of Boston's recent defensive woes.
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04-09-17 | Wolves -4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 109-110 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
There are many reasons why I like the Timberwolves to cover this number. Some are obvious with the main one being Minnesota is the superior team. Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins easily give the Timberwolves the two best players on the court. Ricky Rubio is having his finest career stretch averaging 19 points and 10 assists during his last 10 games. This, though, is build into the line. That's why Minnesota is a road favorite. To beat the line and cover the spread, though, we have to go beyond the obvious and look past the numbers. The Lakers have won three in a row beating the Kings, Spurs and Grizzlies. They haven't won four in a row all season. Prior to their win streak, the Lakers had lost 18 of 20. So what is going on? Have the Lakers really improved? No. They rank with the Nets, Suns and Kings as among the four worst teams in the NBA. During their win streak, the Lakers defeated the Kings, who are in tank mode, too. The Lakers beat the Spurs because Gregg Popovich didn't want his Spurs to win that game. That may have been the most bizarre game of the season, but I don't question Popovich, the best coach in the game. The Lakers did play hard in upsetting the Grizzlies at Staples Center, but Memphis was missing four rotation players, including their best big man, Marc Gasol. It's in the Lakers' best interest to LOSE. This is something management is well aware of and why the Lakers have been giving minutes to inexperienced bench players such as Tyler Ennis, Corey Brewer, Tarick Black and Thomas Robinson. Even long-ago washed-up, mental patient Metta World Peace has averaged 13 minutes of playing time during the last two games. The Lakers now only have the third-worst record in the NBA passing the Suns. If the Lakers can sneak behind the Suns again to finish with the second-worst record instead of the third their chances of winning the lottery go from 47 percent to 56 percent. Improving their lottery odds is far more important to Lakers management than seeing their team win a meaningless April game against the Timberwolves. So you have to question LA's motivation here. That won't be the case with the Timberwolves and their fiery coach Tom Thibodeau. Minnesota entered its current four-game road trip winning three of four. But the Timberwolves are 0-3 on their road trip losing to the Warriors, Trail Blazers and Jazz. Those teams are all extremely hard to beat at home. Thibodeau will be coaching hard - like he always does - and doesn't want to end this road swing going 0-4. The Timberwolves are stepping way down in class after their first three away contests. Thibodeau also will be reminding his team about their last visit to Staples Center against the Lakers. That was on March 24. The Timberwolves blew an eight-point lead with around 2 1/2 minutes left and lost in overtime.
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04-08-17 | Celtics -120 v. Hornets | Top | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
The Celtics are ready to win again after suffering embarrassing blowout losses to the Cavaliers and Hawks. This is a step down in class for Boston. The Celtics need to get back on track and still have hopes of winning the Eastern Conference being one game behind Cleveland after the Cavaliers were stunned by the Hawks last night. This is reality check time now for Boston. The Celtics' defense is capable of much better. The Celtics have owned the Hornets covering seven of the last eight times against them. Boston is 3-0 versus Charlotte this season winning by an average margin of eight points. The Hornets' run at making the final playoff spot has realistically ended. Charlotte is three games behind the last playoff spot with three games left. The Hornets are a spent team and haven't been good at home failing to cover in 13 of their last 19 home games.
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04-07-17 | Heat +6 v. Raptors | Top | 94-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
Only twice in their last 16 games have the Heat lost by more than four points. I don't see Miami getting blown out here in a revenge spot from a 101-84 home loss to the Raptors and with the team back in sync following a blowout road victory against Charlotte in their last game. The Heat need every victory in their playoff quest. The Heat have covered 13 of their last 16 versus opponents with a winning record. They are 8-2 ATS on the road the past 10 times versus an above .500 home team. Erik Spoelstra has done a great job with Miami. I wouldn't argue if he were named Coach of the Year. This is Toronot's second game with Kyle Lowry back a point guard. So there's still an adjustment period.
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04-06-17 | Nets v. Magic -2.5 | Top | 107-115 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
Orlando doesn't have much, if anything to play for this season, except for this game. The teams just met this past Saturday in Brooklyn and the Nets defeated the Magic, 121-111. Brooklyn has been playing its finest ball of the season. I acknowledge that. But the Nets still are one of the three worst teams in the NBA if not the worse. I like Orlando's talent much better than Brooklyn's especially with Aaron Gordon beginning to play better. Orlando is 2-2 in its last four home games with one of those lossess occurring to the Thunder in overtime. Only once in their last six visits have the Nets covered in Orlando. The Magic had also won five straight versus the Nets until losing on Saturday. The Magic won't lack motivation in this revenge spot. The Nets are due for a flat spot having won three in a row. They host the Bulls on Saturday in their final home game. So the spot is ripe for the Magic. They have home-court and the better talent. Add it up and it should result in a cover for the Magic.
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04-05-17 | Raptors +1 v. Pistons | Top | 105-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
Toronto has won eight of its last 10. The Raptors are the No. 3 playoff seed in the East. They are clearly superior to the Pistons even without injured Kyle Lowery. Yet the Pistons currently are favored. I understand the reasoning. Detroit is home, extremely well-rested having last played on Friday, in must-win mode and draw the Raptors without rest. Toronto was blown out by 19 points on the road against the Pacers last night. However ... none of those factors hold up under scrutiny. Detroit realistically has no playoff shot being 2 1/2 games out. The Pistons need to sweep the rest of their games and hope other playoff contenders lose three more games. The Pistons aren't playing well enough for that to happen and their morale is bad. Detroit is 2-9 in its last 11 games and 3-8 ATS. The Pistons' only victories during this span were against the Nets and Suns - two of the three worst teams in the league. Point guard Reggie Jackson is banged-up and so in the doghouse that he's sitting out for journeyman Ish Smith. Playing five days ago also is too long of a layoff at such a late juncture of the season for the Pistons. Look for them to be rusty. The Raptors have much better chemistry. They upgraded their defense at the trade deadline and only DeMar DeRozan logged big minutes last night. |
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04-04-17 | Bucks v. Thunder -4.5 | Top | 79-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Oklahoma City is two levels higher than Milwaukee when playing at home, which is the case here. The Thunder have been dominant at Cheaspeake Energy Arena going 20-8-1 ATS the past 29 times. They've been especially strong versus weaker road teams going 13-4 ATS the past 17 times versus sub .500 road clubs. Oklahoma City has covered eight of the past 10 times as home chalk, but is in stop-the-pain mode with a two-game losing streak. This includes a home loss to the Hornets two days ago in its last game. The Thunder is going for a high seed in the playoffs. Memphis, which would be the seventh-seed if the playoffs began now, is just 1 1/2 games behind the Thunder. Oklahoma City definitely wants to avoid having to tangle with the Warriors or Spurs early in the playoffs. The Bucks could be short-handed in the backcourt if good-looking rookie guard Malcom Brogdon has to miss a third consecutive game because of back pain.
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04-04-17 | Raptors v. Pacers UNDER 206 | 90-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Want a great below-the-radar number? The Raptors have gone under the total in 14 of their last 17 road games. In their last three away contests, the Raptors have held the Mavericks to 86, Heat to 84 and Pistons to 75. So look for a lower-scoring matchup than the oddsmaker is projecting. Indiana is off a heart-breaking double overtime 135-130 road loss to the Cavaliers. That could mean fatigue issues for Paul George, who also presents a tough defensive matchup for DeMar DeRozan. The Pacers figure to play at a slow pace after such a strenous effort in their last game. The teams just met this past Friday in Toronto. The Raptors won, 111-100. Now the total opened higher than what that total closed, which was 204. The Raptors play tighter on the road. The under has cashed the past five times, too, when the teams have played at Indiana.
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04-02-17 | Bulls v. Pelicans -6.5 | Top | 117-110 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
It has taken a while, but the Pelicans have gotten in sync with DeMarcus Cousins on board to join Anthony Davis. New Orleans has won eight of its last 11 games going 7-4 ATS. They have won their past six home contests, which is a season high, covering five of those games while beating the spread by an average of 12.6 points during this span. Cousins is playing his finest ball since joining New Orleans averaging 34 points and 12.8 rebounds in his last four games. The Pelicans are 5-1 the past six games when having Cousins in the lineup. The Bulls had to come from behind to hold off the Hawks on Saturday winning by just two points Saturday at home, 106-104. This victory followed a great win by the Bulls against the Cavaliers. Chicago has three more road games following this matchup. Those games look much easier on paper as the Bulls face the Knicks, 76ers and Nets. This is the matchup where the Bulls face the most trouble. |
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04-01-17 | Hawks +4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 104-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
Things are back looking up for Atlanta. The Hawks took a while adjusting to being without leading scorer and best player, Paul Millsap. The Hawks lost seven in a row during a two-week period from March 13-26. Some of that, though, was because of playing strong competition. The Hawks went up against the Spurs, Grizzlies, Trail Blazers, Wizards and hot Bucks during this span. The Hawks have now won two in a row. Those victories have come against the Suns and 76ers on the road. Yes, the Bulls are a step above those lottery clubs. But Chicago is three games below .500. They aren't very good either and are without Dwayne Wade. Millsap still remains out. But I like this spot for Atlanta. The Hawks have been idle since Wednesday. Sparkplug guard Kent Bazemore is back for Atlanta. He was instrumental in the Hawks' 99-92 road win against the 76ers, who happen to own the best ATS mark in the NBA. I'm expecting a fresh, energectic, well-prepared Hawks squad. The Bulls are coming off a huge Friday home win against the Cavaliers. They still could be on Cloud Nine. Chicago is 2-7 ATS the past nine times playing on one day's rest. The Bulls also have failed to cover in six of their last seven meetings versus the Hawks.
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03-31-17 | Pistons +10 v. Bucks | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
The Pistons have turned very ugly losing eight of their last 10 games. Reggie Jackson has been ineffective, Andre Drummond is the worst free throw shooter in NBA history for a prominent player and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was arrested on Wednesday for suspicion of drunk driving. So why endorse these losers? Call me a sucker, but I believe the Pistons hang with the Bucks here. Milwaukee has won 17 of its last 23 games. Kris Middleton has made a difference offensively and defensively, too. He's been a big key why the Bucks have played so well since losing Jabari Parker. Yet the Bucks have failed to cover three of the last four times they've been favored. They are 0-3 the last times when laying more than six points. This is just the third time they are favored by more than nine points with the other two times coming against the 76ers and Nets. Speaking of the Nets, the Pistons grabbed a much needed victory by edging them, 90-89, last night stopping their five-game losing streak. The Pistons still retain playoff hopes. This is a must-win spot for them. They are due for a much better performance. I see them playing very hard here. Drummond is going to be brutal at the free throw line, but he's the best rebounder on the court. Underrated Ish Smith is an improvement on Jackson at point guard and Caldwell-Pope won't be suspended. Any punishment to him would occur at the start of next season.
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03-30-17 | Clippers v. Suns +10.5 | Top | 124-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Writeup available shortly. |
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03-29-17 | Warriors +4.5 v. Spurs | Top | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show |
No fancy handicap here. I'll take this many points with the Warriors in a double revenge spot and playing more focused with better defense than they were before. Golden State was a rare underdog last night and beat the Rockets. They are 7-2 ATS now versus home foes with a winning percentage above .600. The Spurs are 3-9 ATS following a victory. I respect Gregg Popovich more than any other coach, but the Warriors are at least equal to the Spurs even without Kevin Durant.
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03-27-17 | Grizzlies -6.5 v. Kings | Top | 90-91 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
Do you envision the Grizzlies losing to the Kings here? I don't. The question is can the Grizzlies win by enough of a margin to cover this number. I believe the setting is ripe for the Grizzlies to accomplish that even if Marc Gasol remains out. This is Memphis' final game of a four-game road swing. They lost the first three games to the Pelicans, Spurs and Warriors. No shame in losing to San Antonio and Golden State, perhaps the two best teams in the NBA. Now the Grizzlies step down from the elite to the bottom-five. That's what the Kings have become since giving away DeMarcus Cousins, going 3-12 since he departed. The Grizzlies' past 13 victories have all come by at least seven points. That's a promising sign figuring they are going to win this game. Memphis has dominated this series, too, winning 19 of the past 22 times. The Kings have to be fat and happy after pulling out a one-point road victory against the Clippers in their last game yesterday rallying from 18 points down with just five minutes left. That could be the most improbable comeback victory of the season. Now the Kings travel home where they have dropped seven of their last eight.
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03-26-17 | Kings +13.5 v. Clippers | Top | 98-97 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
The Clippers have a poor track record in these types of situation. LA just clinched a playoff berth with a 108-95 home win against Utah on Saturday. That was a highyly-satisfying victory for LA. So it's going to be difficult for the Clippers to match that intensity against the struggling Kings. The Clippers are 1-8 ATS the past nine times versus foes with a losing record. They also have failed to cover the last five times following a double-digit victory. The Clippers are a playoff team, but they are not elite status. They've just been mediocre going 9-9 in their last 18 games. This marks their third game in four days and they are off the next two days so there could be a tendency to just win and relax. The Kings have become terrible since trading DeMarcus Cousins. They have a lot of youngsters playing for their futures so at least they should product a full effort.
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03-25-17 | Raptors +1 v. Mavs | Top | 94-86 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
Toronto is playing with a lot of confidence, winners of four in a row. I consider the Raptors a better team than the Mavericks. That was proven just 12 days ago when Toronto blasted Dallas, 100-78. The Raptors outrebounded Dallas by 21 in that game. The Mavericks have ranked with the Kings as one of the worst rebounding teams since the All-Star break. Dirk Nowitzki can't cut it at center and the league has caught up to the Mavericks' youthful backcourt of Seth Curry and Yogi Ferrell. Their play has tailed way off after being initially surprisingly good. DeMar DeRozan is on fire producing consecutive 40-point games. Serge Ibaka is back from a one-game suspension to further exploit the Mavericks' rebounding weakness. Toronto has proven it can still win without Kyle Lowery going 10-5 in his absence.
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03-25-17 | Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 203.5 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
Expect a lot of defensive intensity and flat offensive play in this game. It's not just the Jazz ranking No. 1 in defense holding foes to 96.5 points a game while also ranking second in defensive field goal percentage and that the Clippers are an above average defensive club themselves. This is a day game. So the teams could be sluggish with an unusual early start time. The Clippers just flew in from Dallas where they were upset by the Mavericks, 97-95, Thursday night. So it's almost a back-to-back spot for them due to the 12:30 local tip-off. The matchup also carries serious playoff ramifications. Both are battling to gain the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference. That's huge because the fourth seed avoids the Warriors, Spurs and Rockets in the first round. Those three teams are a clear cut above the rest of the Western playoff contenders.
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03-24-17 | Nuggets v. Pacers -123 | 125-117 | Loss | -123 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
The Pacers are one of those bad road/good home teams. They are 25-10 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse and 11-25 on the road. Denver is 13-20 away from Pepsi Center and 3-8 ATS the past 11 times facing a foe with a winning home mark. Indiana has won four in a row at home, winning those games by an average of 12.3 points. Paul George is back playing at his All-Star level. He's averaging nearly 27 points this month. Not only are both teams involved in playoff runs, but the Pacers have an added revenge motive for an embarrassing 140-112 road loss to Denver on Jan. 12. Denver is a bit fat and happy after upsetting the defending champion Cavaliers by 13 points at home this past Wednesday. They are 4-9 ATS the past 13 times following a victory. Stephen Nover Free Friday Play Hawks plus 5 1/2 at Bucks It takes a lot of zigging and zagging to beat a don't-make-sense league such as the NBA. We have a perfect example today: Take Atlanta plus the points at Milwaukee. The Hawks have lost five in a row. The Bucks are returning from a 4-2 road trip, marking the first time since the 1988-'89 season Milwaukee won four games during a single road trip. Logic says lay the points with the Bucks. Logic, though, doesn't work too often in the NBA. If it did the sport would be easy to win at instead of being what many pro gamblers consider the most difficult sport to beat. Still, why get involved with the cold Hawks? We go back a little more than two weeks ago to help get the answer. Atlanta was riding a three-game winning streak from March 8-12 defeating the Nets, Raptors and Grizzlies in Memphis. Then the Hawks lost to the Spurs. No shame in that. The Grizzlies got their revenge against the Hawks following that game. Again, no shame in losing to Memphis. But then in their next game - home against Portland this past Saturday - the Hawks lost by 16 points. Paul Millsap injured his knee during warmups prior to that game and the Hawks had trouble adjusting without their best player. Millsap, a four-time All-Star, leads Atlanta in scoring and is second in rebounding, assists and steals. Coupled with the loss of underrated Kent Bazemore, the Hawks proceeded to drop their next game, 105-90, to the Hornets in Charlotte. That was the Hawks' fourth straight loss with the defeats coming by an average of 12.8 points per game. These are the short windows of opportunity that come and go in the NBA. They don't stay open long as team and oddsmaker adjust. The Hawks covered as 7 1/2-point road 'dogs to the Wizards in losing, 104-100, two days ago in their last game. Atlanta is not going to have Millsap nor Bazemore against the Bucks. But the team has made the proper adjustments. The Hawks showed progress against the Wizards and are now less depended on Millsap. The Hawks have a strong track record against the Bucks and draw Milwaukee in a vulnerable situational spot. The Bucks are a bit fat and happy following their successful six-game, 11-day road journey that concluded with a blowout victory against the Kings in Sacramento this past Wednesday night. Giannis Antetokounmpo is an absolute monster on pace to join Ocar Robertson and Magic Johnson as the only player to average more than 20 points, eight rebounds and five assists under the age of 22. If my Rotisserie fantasy basketball draft were being held now I would rank Antetokounmpo as the fourth overall player behind Russell Westbrook, James Harden and Anthony Davis. The Bucks are a young team whose maturity is under question. The Bucks have their long-time arch rivals, the Bulls, on deck Sunday at home. I wouln't trust the Bucks to bring their "A" game here considering the circumstanes. They still could be getting used to the time change having been on the West Coast the past week. It should be noted the Bucks may be without backup center John Henson. He missed Milwauke's last game with a thumb injury. If Henson can't play that would be one less big man to hack Dwight Howard. The Hawks need point guard Dennis Schroder to return to his earlier solid form. He's been terrible during the Hawks' losing streak. Point guard is not one of the Bucks' strengths. Veteran forward Ersan Ilyasova also needs to step up. He's a former Buck so he should be psyched for this matchup. The Hawlks are in stop-the-pain mode. They have just a one-game lead on the Bucks and Pacers for fifth place in the Eastern Conference. Atlanta has a winning straight-up and spread record on the road. They have defeated the Buck in seven of the past nine meetings, including all three this season winning by an average of eight points. The Hawks have covered in seven of their last eight visits to Milwaukee. |
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03-24-17 | Cavs -2.5 v. Hornets | Top | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
The Cavaliers are two levels higher than the Hornets and shouldn't lack for motivation after getting blown out by the Nuggets, 126-113, this past Wednesday. That cut Cleveland's lead to just one game over Boston for top record in the Eastern Conference. LeBron James is as brilliant as ever, Kyrie Irving is having a strong month and the Cavaliers are finally fully healthy with both Kevin Love and Kyle Korver back from injuries. Irving is averaging nearly 40 points in his last two games. The Cavaliers are 3-0 versus the Hornets this season with a winning margin being by an average of 10 points. The Hornets have failed to cover in 10 of their last 14 home contests
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03-22-17 | Bucks v. Kings +5 | Top | 116-98 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
This is a dangerous spot for the Bucks. They pulled off a road upset of Portland last night. This marks the end of their six-game, 10-day road trip. They are playing without rest with home games against Atlanta on Friday and long-time rival Chicag on Sunday looming. Milwaukee is playing well. But the Bucks aren't nearly mature enough to cover a margin like this if they don't produce at least a high "B" game. Milwaukee is 2-8 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. Sacramento has been idle the past two days. The Kings have been tough at home recently beating the Magic and taking the Wizards and Jazz to overtime during three of their last four home contests. The Wizards and Jazz are both superior to the Bucks.
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03-21-17 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans OVER 205 | Top | 82-95 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
New Orleans went 2-6 during its first eight games with DeMarcus Cousins. But now Cousins and fellow superstar Anthony Davis are far more in sync. The result has been four wins in their last five games for the Pelicans. The Pelicans are playing at a faster pace now, too. That's helped them average 117.6 points during their last five games of which four have gone over. The Grizzlies are getting career seasons from Mike Conley and Marc Gasol. They are firing more 3-points than ever before. Memphis has reached triple digits in eight of its last 11 games. New Orleans is a below average defensive team. So I see this total as being set too low. |
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03-20-17 | Warriors -113 v. Thunder | 111-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Beating the Thunder in Oklahoma City isn't easy. But I see the Warriors doing it making the point they don't need Kevin Durant to be able to beat Oklahoma City. Golden State is 3-0 versus the Thunder this season, including breezing past the Thunder, 130-114, at Oklahoma City last month. Going back to last season, the Warriors have covered in each of the last six meetings versus the Thunder. The Warriors have gotten back their mojo since losing Durant to injury winning three in a row. Golden State is at the elite level. It's not asking too much for the Warriors to win this game straight-up.
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03-18-17 | Rockets -2.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Denver doesn't have the defense to slow down the Rockets. Houston beat Denver, 128-110, the past time it played at Pepsi Center this past December. I see the Rockets coming out strong again after a poor effort last night in a 128-112 road loss to the Pelicans. Houston is 16-5 ATS following a loss, 21-10 ATS versus foes with a losing record and 5-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Rockets are playing short-handed minus two injured players - Danilo Gallinari, their second-best player, and key reserve Wilson Chandler. |
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03-17-17 | Magic +2.5 v. Suns | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
The Magic should be up for this game after their no-show last night against the Warriors. Orlando coach Frank Vogel reamed his team out for that dreadful performance. Orlando has covered eight of the last 10 times in Phoenix. The Suns are going with youth with the latest casualty being their best player, Eric Bledsoe. The Suns have decided to sit him for the rest of the season so he can rest his sore knee.
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