Down their most dangerous wide receiver, Rashee Rice, and best running back, Isaiah Pacheco, the Chiefs are not the explosive team some perceive. Kansas City has scored just 39 combined points the past two weeks taking on the Chargers and Falcons.

The Saints have a solid, well-coached defense that gives up the seventh-fewest points per game at 17.5.

Kansas City's strength is its defense, which surrenders just 18 points a game. 

The Saints are dealing with a cluster injury problem to their offensive line. Out are Pro Bowl center Erik, McCoy, his backup center Shane Lemieux and guard Cesar Ruiz. Swingman Lucas Patrick is questionable. Also out is Taysom Hill, the Saints' unique gadget player and highly effective goal line runner. 

So expect the Saints to have plenty of problems keeping elite defensive lineman Chris Jones away from Derek Carr, who is one of the least effective quarterbacks when under a heavy pass rush.

Dual threat Jayden Daniels is capable of producing points against any defense. He's already showing signs of being the Lamar Jackson of the NFC. The Cardinals have a below average defense. They've come up with only one takeaway.

The Cardinals are back to having a high-powered attack with Kyler Murray fully healthy. Murray has plenty of receiving weapons even without injured stud tight end Trey McBride. James Conner hasn't gotten hurt yet, so he gives the Cardinals a balanced attack.

The Commanders present a solid case for having the worst defense in the NFL. They rank in the bottom-four in key statistical categories, including scoring defense, most yards allowed and pass defense. Washington has yet to come up with a takeaway.

The buy sign is on for these offenses. So is the situation. It's a high total, but I envision a shootout.

The Lions are in ill favor. They racked up 463 yards against Tampa Bay last week, but managed only 16 points because of going 1 for 7 in the red zone. Even with that the Lions still have scored 30 or more points in five of their last nine games.

Arizona has a weak defense. The Lions have all of their major weapons. I don't see the Cardinals slowing down Detroit.

But I also don't see the Lions holding down the Cardinals either.

The Cardinals' offense was as good as envisioned in Week 2 scoring 41 points on the Rams. The Cardinals took their foot off the gas, too, in the fourth quarter. A fully healthy Kyler Murray is back playing at a high level and Marvin Harrison Jr. gives him a stud wide receiver to go with elite tight end Trey McBride.

Arizona leads the NFL in converting third down plays at 58 percent.

It's a fast track inside the Falcons' dome stadium, but I'm not expecting a fast-paced game between these two teams.

The Steelers have a washed-up Russell Wilson as their quarterback and could be the most run-heavy team in the NFL. That notion is reinforced with the addition of Arthur Smith as Pittsburgh's new offensive coordinator. Smith is as run-heavy as any offensive coordinator.

Pittsburgh's offensive line still looks underwhelming and the Falcons upgraded their defense, trading for elite pass rusher Matthew Judon and greatly strengthening their secondary by signing safeties Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates.

Don't expect the Falcons to light up the scoreboard. Kirk Cousins is 35 and coming back from a torn Achilles. He didn't play during preseason so he figures to be rusty and he's with a new team. The Steelers are strong defensively led by elite pass rusher T.J. Watt.

Smith should be an asset assisting Mike Tomlin here since he coached the Falcons during the previous three years.

Given all the skill position talent, outstanding offensive coaching and this game being played indoors, I'm going Over this total.

There were 73 combined points in last year's Super Bowl between the Eagles and Chiefs. While I don't believe the 49ers and Chiefs will get anywhere near that number, I do believe there will be more than 50 points produced by the two teams.

Andy Reid is one of the best offensive innovator head coaches of all-time. Kyle Shanahan is an elite play-caller. Give these coaches two weeks to prepare and they should design excellent schemes and game plans.

Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL and already one of the all-time greats. He has a Hall of Fame tight end, Travis Kelce, wide receiver depth and a solid running back in Isiah Pacheco, who is running behind an improved run-blocking offensive line.

San Francisco has an average secondary and its overall defense has not looked good in its two playoff games. Aaron Jones ran for 108 yards, while averaging 6.0 yards a carry, against the 49ers and the Lions rushed for 182 yards on 29 carries - a 6.3 yards per run average - against San Francisco. Mahomes is going to be highly effective if the Chiefs are running the ball well. The Chiefs put up 31 points when they met the 49ers in the Super Bowl four seasons ago.

Kansas City has its best defense of the Reid/Mahomes era. But the rules highly favor offense and the 49ers have numerous weapons for Brock Purdy with Christian McCaffrey - the best all-purpose back in the league - Deebo Samuel - the best combination of receiver/runner in the NFL - emerging star Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and versatile fullback Kyle Juszczyk.

The Chiefs just lost two of their defensive linemen to injuries, Charles Omenihu and Derrick Nnadi. The 49ers are averaging 31.1 points in their last 10 games in which Purdy has started. Kansas City's defense is good, but not elite. It can't stop all of those 49ers weapons.

San Francisco has an elite defense. Detroit's defense is somewhat underrated. I don't trust Jared Goff in an outdoor big game even though there won't be bad weather. I don't consider Brock Purdy an elite quarterback. Deebo Samuel could be limited.

Those are my reasons, in a nutshell, why I don't see this rather high total going Over.

The 49ers surrendered the third-fewest points in the league at 17.5. They also have the No. 3 run defense and were sixth in takeaways. San Francisco gave up 21 or fewer points in seven of its last nine games. I seriously question how effective Goff will be on the road against this caliber of defense.

The Lions are tough to run on. They gave up the second-fewest rushing yards and were fourth in causing negative plays. Detroit hasn't yielded more than 24 points during any of its last six games. The Lions held both the Chiefs and Cowboys to just 20 points each when they played them on the road.

Purdy didn't look good against the Packers last week. Many of his throws were not accurate. The 49ers are reliant on Samuel, who is dealing with a shoulder injury. The 49ers averaged 7.1 yards per play with Samuel and 5.7 yards per play without him. 

The total has been bet up in anticipation of a Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff shootout. I'm not buying into that storyline.

Yes, there are some very good skill position players involved. But this is a high total and these defenses are not as bad as some perceive. I also believe there will be more running plays than expected. 

Raheem Morris is one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL. He's done a fine job with the Rams this season. Aaron Donald still is in his dominant prime. Morris has the Rams playing a lot of soft coverage. This invites the run and prevents big plays from happening. It's good for the Under. 

Lions coach Dan Campbell isn't afraid to feature a lot of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs on the ground. The Rams held seven of their last nine opponents to 22 or fewer points. Just once did the Rams allow an opposing runner to gain 100 rushing yards.

Goff's top red zone target is tight end Sam LaPorta, who set a rookie record with 86 catches and ranked No. 1 in red zone touchdowns for tight ends. LaPorta suffered a knee injury in the Lions' Week 18 victory against the Vikings. He'll be limited if he plays. Also hurt in that game was Kalif Raymond, a dangerous return man for the Lions. 

The Rams use Kyren Williams to set up their passing attack. Detroit's defense strength is its run defense. The Lions finished third in yards per carry allowed and No. 2 in run defense limiting opposing runners to 88.8 yards per game.

I find this total too high for a pair of inexperienced playoff teams. C.J. Stroud is an extraordinary rookie. But he's going against a Cleveland defense that gave up the fewest yards per game and finished No. 2 in the metric DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). Stroud also has to deal with maybe the best pass rusher in the league, Myles Garrett.

Joe Flacco has been a remarkable story saving the Browns' season. But what's been overlooked about Flacco, who turns 39 in a matter of days, is he has thrown eight interceptions in his five starts with Cleveland.

I envision the Browns being heavily run-oriented against the Texans. The Colts had great success on the ground vs the Texans. But they had Jonathan Taylor. The Browns don't have an above average runner with Nick Chubb sidelined.

Houston's defense is going to get reinforced, too, this week with the return of star pass rushing rookie Will Anderson Jr. and linebacker Blake Cashman, an underrated player who racks up tackles. The Texans also might get back defensive lineman Jonathan Greenard.

This is an NFL regular season game masquerading as an exhibition game with an exhibition type total.

No Patrick Mahomes. No Justin Herbert nor Keenan Allen.

The Chiefs are locked into the No. 3 playoff seed in the AFC. The Chargers are rudderless awaiting a new coach. Andy Reid has told his Chiefs to go out and have fun. The Chiefs won't have Mahomes, but their quarterback-friendly offensive system is in place.

So I see a loosely, played game with each team not afraid to take chances.

The headline is Mahomes not playing. But many key defensive players won't be in action either. The Chargers already have ruled out Joey Bosa and Kenneth Murray. The Chiefs could sit out their best defensive player, star pass rusher Chris Jones. He's dealing with a groin injury.

Blaine Gabbert will fill-in for Mahomes. He's one of the better backup QB's in the league. He's backed by an above average offense. The Chiefs don't have any stars at wide receiver, but they do have good wide receiving depth. The bar is set low for Kansas City's offense. The Chargers rank 29th in total defense and 30th in pass defense. They just surrendered 63 points to the Raiders three weeks ago.

Easton Stick will be making his fifth straight QB start for the Chargers. He has command of the offense. The Chargers, like the Chiefs, are a passing offense. Unlike other Week 18 games, weather won't factor here with clear skies, temperatures in the high 50's and little wind.

The Vikings' defense has improved under ace defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Minnesota has held four of its last six opponents to 21 or fewer points.

Kevin O'Connell did the Packers a big favor by having rookie Jaren Hall start. Hall has passed for a total of 101 yards in the NFL. This signals the Vikings are going to be extra cautious and conservative in this matchup.

Jaire Alexander is suspended. But he's missed most of the season and hasn't played up to his elite level when he has been on the field. The Vikings also are without star tight end T.J. Hockenson.

Since returning from a finger injury, Matthew Stafford has been one of the best QB's in the NFL throwing for 1,578 yards with a 15-to-two touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last six games. 

Setting up Stafford has been the emergence of Kyren Williams as an elite running back. The second-year running back tops the NFL averaging 96.1 yards rushing a game. The Giants rank 29th in run defense. So an effective Williams should mean another big performance for Stafford and his stud wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. 

Making it worse for the Giants is they are banged-up in their defensive line. 

The buy sign is on the Giants offense with Brian Daboll going with veteran Tyrod Taylor at quarterback instead of Tommy DeVito. 

Weather won't be a factor with temperatures in the 40's, clear skies and only a slight wind.

This is the supreme fade spot on the Raiders' offense after they put up 63 points against the hapless Chargers at home last week. Despite that result, Las Vegas' offense isn't very good, quarterbacked by Aidan O'Connell. The Raiders averaged just 11.5 points in their previous four games before hosting the Chargers.

The Chiefs entered this week surrendering the third-fewest points per game at 17.5. Their defense is strong and is even better with linebacker Nick Bolton back from injury.

Kansas City's offense is way down from past Patrick Mahomes seasons. The Chiefs are outside of the top-10 in scoring. This is the weakest wide receiver group Mahomes has had.

Weather is going to factor, too. The forecast is for showers, possibly snow, with temperatures dipping below 32. The Raiders are an indoors team that hasn't played in a bad weather game all season.

Geno Smith has missed Seattle's last two games. When Smith last played it was against the Cowboys. He accounted for four touchdowns and threw for 334 yards leading the Seahawks to 35 points in a 41-35 road loss. Smith is capable of games like that aided by having three excellent wide receivers and two good running backs. Smith will be back in action for this matchup.

Smith's task will be made easier by the Titans' cluster injury problem on defense. Among those out for Tennessee is lineman Jeffery Simmons. He's the Titans best defensive player. The Titans' secondary is decimated by injuries. Among those out are cornerbacks Kristian Fulton and Sean Murphy-Bunting along with safeties Amani Hooker and K'Von Wallace. Defensive backs Shyheim Carter and Tae Gowan have been called up from the practice squad.

The Titans are eliminated from playoff contention. That should ensure a loose game from them with nothing to lose. Ryan Tannehill is back at quarterback with Will Levis unable to go. Tannehill is playing for his NFL future. Derrick Henry also is in rebound mode coming off one of his worst performances.

Seattle has its own injuries in the secondary. Safety Jamal Adams has been ruled out and cornerback Devon Witherspoon is out, too, with a hip injury.

The last three games in this series have gone Over. There have been at least 52 points scored during each of those past three games. I see that pattern continuing.

The Lions have tremendous firepower with Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and explosive Jamison Williams. The Vikings are heavy blitzers. But Jared Goff will be well-protected with the Lions' excellent offensive line healthy again.

Goff usually is at his finest playing on a fast track in a dome setting like in this matchup. Detroit ranks in the top-five in many of the major offensive categories, including points, yards, passing and rushing.  

Detroit's defense has been exposed as fraudulent. The Lions are giving up an average of 27.2 points in their last eight games.

The Vikings have the right backup quarterback in place now with veteran Nick Mullens. He's a much better distributor than Joshua Dobbs or rookie Jaren Hall. Justin Jefferson is healthy, giving Mullens a great wideout to go with star tight end T.J. Hockenson.

Look for a lot of back and forth scoring with this one getting into the 50's just like in their three previous head-to-head matchups.

This is a low total for a Colts home game. Indy has gone Over in 69 percent of its games under innovative and aggressive Shane Steichen.

The Colts are the eighth-highest scoring team in the NFL at 24.2 points per game. They have scored 27 or more points in five of their last seven games.

I expect the Steelers to keep up. They gained more than 400 yards for the first time this season three weeks ago against the Bengals. It was not a coincidence it was their first game since firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada. There was a big buzz then about Pittsburgh's improved offense.

The Steelers are more explosive and use better schemes since getting rid of Canada, who seemed to think the only pass worth throwing was an out-of-bounds sideline pass to George Pickens. But the offensive improvement didn't show the past two games because the Steelers had to play in horrible weather conditions against the Cardinals and then went up against New England's upper-tier defense, although still managing 21 points against the Patriots.

Now the Steelers are dropping way down in defensive class facing the Colts, who rank 29th in scoring defense giving up 25.4 points a game. The Colts are 27th in run defense and 25th in total defense.

Mitch Trubisky is just as good as Kenny Pickett. Yes I know that's a low bar. But Trubisky is far more mobile and he has three quality receivers and two reliable running backs to help him out against a bad defense on Indy's fast dome track.

Miami has the most explosive and intriguing offense in the NFL. The Dolphins lead the league in yards and are second in points at 32 per game. They also have had the most plays of plus 25 and plus 50 yard gains.

The Titans would be hard-pressed to keep the Dolphins in check if they had all of their best defensive players. But they will be without their top lineman, Jeffery Simmons, and cornerback, Kristian Fulton. So this sets up as another big-scoring game for Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jalen Waddle. Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane. The Titans gave up 34 points to the Jaguars in their last road game.

The Dolphins can come close to covering this Over themselves. But I expect the Titans to contribute their share of points.

Derrick Henry still has some juice left. He entered this week ranked No. 2 in rushing with 841 yards and eight TD's on the ground. Rookie QB Will Levis had proven to be more gunslinger than game manager, averaging 11.8 yards per completion in six starts, which was the third-highest number in the AFC during the last seven weeks.

The Titans lost their reliable punter, Ryan Stonehouse, to a season-ending injury in last week's, 31-28, overtime loss to the Colts. The Colts blocked two Tennessee punts in that game. The Dolphins are sure to have taken notice.

There are multiple bad weather games this week. This isn't one of them. The forecast is for a sunny day with temperatures in the 40's and little wind.

So Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes won't have any restrictions.

The Bills have been more aggressive in playing to Allen's strengths - which is his running and taking downfield shots - since firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey two games ago. Buffalo is averaging 33 points since Dorsey departed. They had averaged 20.5 points during their previous six games.

The Chiefs were short-handed at linebacker against the Packers last week after Drue Tranquill suffered a concussion. He's questionable as is Nick Bolton, who has been on the injured list. It's a bonus if those two are unable to play.

Mahomes can take advantage of a beat-up Bills defense that has lost their best linebacker and cornerback for the season.

Jordan Love has had two strong games in a row. That was against the Chargers and Lions. Now he steps up facing a much better defense. Kansas City surrenders the third-fewest points per game at 16.5. The Chiefs haven't allowed more than 21 points in a game all season.

The Packers are likely to be missing their best runner again, Aaron Jones. That leaves plodding A.J. Dillon, who isn't 100 percent either because of groin injury, and free agent type of backup runners to handle the ground attack.

Green Bay's defense has been underrated, permitting 18.2 points per game in its last seven games. There's a good chance the Packers get back a number of their injured defensive backs, too, including shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander. A healthy Rashan Gary makes a big difference for Green Bay. His snap count has increased as he nears 100 percent. Gary had three sacks against the Lions last Thursday.

The Chiefs have dropped the most passes in the league costing them nearly 300 yards. Expect Kansas City to attack Green Bay's run defense. That means a lot of north/south runner Isiah Pacheco, which is good for the under.

This is a December night game in Green Bay so it will be cold. The forecast is for temperatures in the 20's with a chance of snow.

The Rams are going from playing a bottom-two defense in Arizona to meeting a Cleveland defense that gives up the fewest yards and passing yards. Night and day.

Before lighting up the Cardinals' dreadful defense last week, the Rams had averaged 14.2 points in their previous four games. The Rams' passing game isn't as good as it looks on paper with Cooper Kupp being close to a non-factor with only six receptions in his last three games for 77 yards.

The Browns can win this game with their tough defense and ground-control running attack. The only thing that can beat the Browns is turnovers. So look for Cleveland to be ultra-conservative on offense knowing that immobile Joe Flacco will be under center.

The Rams have held their last three opponents - Cardinals, Seahawks and Packers - to a combined average of 16.6 points.

Finally free of obtuse offensive coordinator Matt Canada, the Steelers produced a season-high 421 yards against the Bengals last week. Kenny Pickett wasn't just restricted to throwing sideline passes like before. Tight end Pat Freiermuth caught nine passes for 120 yards using the middle of the field. Pittsburgh has a strong 1-2 running punch of Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris to go with one of the better wide receiver tandems, Diontae Johnson and George Pickens.

The Steelers weren't utilizing all these weapons properly under Canada. Now they are. Pittsburgh also gets to face a worse defense than Cincinnati - Arizona. Only the Commanders have surrendered more points than the Cardinals.

The Cardinals are more dangerous offensively with Kyler Murray and James Conner back. Going by fantasy football numbers, Murray has been a top-10 quarterback since his return three games ago. The Steelers have yielded the seventh-most yards to wide receivers.

There's a chance of rain, but no need to be scared off by the weather because wind isn't a factor.

The Bills have the most beat-up defense in the league with numerous injuries, including ones to their top linebacker and cornerback.

The Eagles have one weakness - pass defense where they rank 28th.

Buffalo is in a much better position to have success attacking that weakness with a change in offensive coordinators from fired Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady. This change signals that Josh Allen will be reverting back to his old style of running more and the Bills using multiple wide receiver sets with far more pre-snap motion to freeze defenses.

The Bills put up 32 points on a good Jets defense last week in their first game without Dorsey.

The numbers are 64.6 percent completions for 2,389 yards and 15 TD passes. Those numbers belong to Baker Mayfield. Surprised? Mayfield is having a below-the-radar good season. The Buccaneers have no ground attack, but they can effectively air it out.

Mayfield goes from facing the 49ers' daunting defense to drawing Indy's defense that ranks 26th in scoring defense giving up 24.8 points a game and is 25th in total defense. Mayfield is at his best finding Mike Evans and Chris Godwin sitting between defenders in zone coverage. Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley is notorious for his complete reliance on Cover-2 type zone defenses.

Shane Streichen, the Colts' coach and offensive guru, has had extra time to prepare with the Colts off their bye. He should dial up plenty of passes with the Buccaneers ranked second-to-last in pass defense. The Buccaneers' secondary is made more vulnerable with numerous injuries. Out are star linebacker Lavonte David and cornerback Jamel Dean. In addition, cornerback Carlton Davis and linebacker Devin White are each questionable.

This has the potential for being a below-the-radar shootout. Trevor Lawrence is way overdue for a big game and he's dropping way down in class after going against the 49ers last week.

The Titans are weak in the secondary. Their statistics haven't looked bad because in their last three games they've faced the following quarterbacks: Baker Mayfield, Kenny Pickett and Taylor Heinicke/Desmond Ridder. Lawrence is way more talented than any of those stiff QB's.

Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel should be astute enough to realize that he needs to establish the pass before he can get Derrick Henry going. This is the opposite approach of what the Titans have been under Vrabel.

Rookie Will Levis has a big arm, a still dangerous DeAndre Hopkins and the Jaguars will be minus their best cornerback, injured Tyson Campbell. Jacksonville has the third-worst pass defense in the NFL. So I expect the Titans to contribute their fair share of points here.

It's no coincidence the Bengals put up 31 points on the road against a strong 49ers defense last week. Joe Burrow is finally healthy. He looked great. The rest of the Bengals are healthy, too. Joe Mixon actually displayed some explosiveness for the first time this season.

The Bills have played the following QB's in their last three games: Tyrod Taylor, Mac Jones and Baker Mayfield. Now they face an elite QB with one of the most banged-up defenses in the NFL. Burrow can exploit Buffalo's long list of key defensive players who are out the way those other QB stiffs couldn't.

Buffalo, in turn, has opened up its offense going back to three wide receiver sets, involving potential star pass-catching rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid more and having Josh Allen run in his reckless fashion. The Bills are playing faster using more no-huddle, all great for the Over.

The weather should be fine for this Sunday night matchup with the forecast calling for temperatures in the low 40's, little wind and clear skies.

The Commanders' already horrific defense just traded defensive linemen Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Those two were maybe their best defenders. The Patriots are minus pass rusher Matthew Judon and cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Now linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley is questionable with a hamstring injury. Those are New England's three top defensive players. 

Yet the total still remains low by today's NFL offensively-enabled numbers. 

Sam Howell has put up good numbers despite being sacked the most of any QB. He has reliable receiving targets. The Patriots have permitted the ninth-most passing TD's and 11th-most receiving yards. New England is tied for the second-fewest sacks with 15. 

Mac Jones should have a strong game because he'll have a clean pocket. The Commanders rank in the bottom-four in scoring defense, defensive total yards and pass defense.

Unless there's bad weather or key skill position injury concerns, this is too low of a total. The weather is going to be fine and Derrick Henry is set to play. DeAndre Hopkins is likely to suit up, too, so I'm going Over.

Rookie Will Levis threw four TD passes against the Falcons in his pro debut last week. While I don't expect Levis to repeat that a second straight week, he's a plus for the Over because of his strong arm. Injured Ryan Tannehill was the lowest rated starting QB in the league. Tannehill had just two TD passes all season. The threat of a downfield Titans passing attack makes Henry more dangerous because Pittsburgh's defense just can't key on him.

There is a big injury - and it's on the Steelers defense. Star free safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is out with a hamstring injury. That's another plus for the Over.

I expect Kenny Pickett to get the QB start for Pittsburgh. He has two strong wide receiving targets in George Pickins and Diontae Johnson. If Pickett can't go, I'm fine with Mitchell Trubisky behind center as this is not a huge total to go Over.

This sets up as a get-well game for Justin Herbert, who has had a disappointing season given his high bar. The Bears defense turned dreadful after the team dealt star linebacker Roquan Smith and pass rusher Robert Quinn at midseason last year.

Chicago finished last in scoring defense and 29th in total defense in 2022. This season the Bears are giving up 28.9 points, which ranks 28th, and they are 29th in pass defense. Safety Jaquan Brisker, the Bears' fourth-leading tackler, already has been ruled out and fellow safety Eddie Jackson is questionable with a foot injury. So Herbert is set up for success.

The Bears were able to slow down the Raiders at home last week because Las Vegas' QB's were Brian Hoyer and Aidan O'Connell. I don't see them doing well against Herbert.

Undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent draws his second NFL start for Chicago. He showed accuracy - more than Justin Fields - and moxie in helping the Bears defeat the Raiders, 30-12, last week. The Bears should open their playbook more for him this week. It just might be that the Bears found a diamond in the rough.  

The Chargers have the worst pass defense in the league. Their secondary, particularly Derwin James, seems more interested in head hunting than in playing smart football. The Chargers are second-to-last in defensive total yards and 25th in scoring defense allowing 25.8 points per game.

Dak Prescott is off his best game of the season. The Cowboys' offensive line is as healthy as it has been all season and getting more in sync. Dallas has had two weeks to prepare, being on its bye last week. The Rams defense is mediocre at best and is stepping up in class after having just played the Steelers and Cardinals.

So I'm confident the Cowboys will produce their share of points hosting the Rams. Dallas is averaging a whooping 38 points per game in its last seven games at AT&T Stadium.

I expect Matthew Stafford to keep up given that he has a healthy Cooper Kupp along with rookie-of-the-year candidate Puka Nacua, who leads the NFL in receptions with 58. The Rams aren't one-dimensional either. Their ground attack is averaging 157 yards rushing the past two weeks.

Micah Parsons is a dominant player, but Dallas defense is not dominant minus its best cornerback, Trevon Diggs, and linebacker Leighton Vander Esch. The Cowboys surrendered 42 points to the 49ers just two weeks ago.

The Rams' field goal kicking can't get worse after they cut Brett Maher, who missed two field goals and an extra point against the Steelers last week.

Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp are up to their old dominant ways. The Rams' wide receiving corps is at peak efficiency right now with the emergence of rookie Puka Nacua and vast improvement shown by Tutu Atwell.

Despite the presence of T.J. Watt, the Steelers' defense is down from previous seasons. They rank 30th in defensive total yards.

Kyren Williams is out for the Rams. That's going to cripple their ground attack. But I see Stafford passing more because of that. Sean McVay probably will decide on the best pass blocking running back to replace Williams.

The Steelers should come out throwing, too, following their bye. Kenny Pickett is close, or at, 100 percent. He gets back tight end security blanket and prime red zone target tight end Pat Friermuth and probably Diontae Johnson, too. That would give Pickett three strong receiving targets factoring in talented George Pickens.

I don't find the Rams defense very good. It's Aaron Donald and 10 other bodies.

Take the Lions out of their dome. Put them on a grass field in windy conditions against an elite defense and they are not going to put up fancy numbers.

That's the situation here with Detroit traveling to Baltimore to face a Ravens defense that gives up 15.2 points per game and ranks No. 2 in the NFL in defensive total yards and pass defense.

The Ravens have held their last three opponents to an average of 12 points a game.

Jared Goff has a history of playing much worse in outdoor settings especially when weather is a factor. The forecast is for strong wind in the 15-20 mph range. Goff won't have his top running back either with David Montgomery out. The Lions hope to get Jahmyr Gibbs back, but he's been a disappointment and is not a heavy duty back like Montgomery.

The Lions' defense has improved so much that it can be trusted to hold up their end.

Detroit has the No. 1 run defense in the league. The Lions rank seventh in defensive total yards and ninth in scoring defense giving up 18.8 points a game. The Ravens are without their best running back, J.K. Dobbins, and their passing attack has been hurt by repeated dropped passes from their mediocre wide receiving group.

Dennis Allen isn't a very good head coach. But he's an elite defensive coach. The Saints have turned into a dead nuts Under team with Allen.

The Under has cashed in 14 of the Saints' last 15 games, including all five games this season. The Saints have played 11 consecutive games where the combined score was below 40 points.

What clinches this Under play, though, is how improved the Texans' defense is under their new coach, defensive-minded DeMeco Ryans. Houston has held its last three opponents to an average of 14.6 points. New Orleans had managed only four offensive TD's during its first four games until blasting the punchless Patriots, 34-0, at home last week.

Derek Carr is mediocre. The Saints should have known this before signing him. He doesn't elevate his surrounding talent.

The Texans are going against a top-five defense shorthanded as usual with multiple injuries in their offensive line and the possibility of being down wide receivers, Robert Woods and Tank Dell, their second-biggest threat. Houston hasn't been able to run the ball ranking 27th in rushing. That inability could really hurt them against this caliber of defense.

Lots of dropped passes and six lost fumbles have skewed the Ravens' offensive numbers. But Baltimore remains aggressive in its new passing-oriented offense. Lamar Jackson is comfortable and likes this new aggressive approach. He's completing a career-best 69.9 percent of his throws despite Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman dropping way too many balls. Those two are too good to keep doing that.

So I envision a strong offensive performance from Jackson and the Ravens against a Tennessee defense that ranks 23rd in pass defense and was just gashed for 193 yards rushing by the Colts last Sunday. The Titans have just three takeaways, too, which ranks 30th. 

On the flip side, I see the Titans scoring their share of points. Derrick Henry and DeAndre Hopkins remain productive. Tennessee's offensive line has been getting better.

The Ravens' defense has good numbers. But I'm not sold on them, especially outside of Baltimore where they are less intimidating. 

Baltimore has been extremely lucky in the offenses they have drawn - C.J. Stroud making his NFL debut on the road behind a makeshift offensive line opening week, a one-legged Joe Burrow in Week 2, backup Gardner Minshew in Week 3, overmatched rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson with no Nick Chubb in Week 4 and the poorly designed Steelers offense with a banged-up Kenny Pickett last week. 

I get that the Titans are considered an Under team. But the Colts rank 29th in total defense and struggle against Derrick Henry, who has topped 100 yards rushing against Indy in six of the past seven meetings. The lone time he didn't reach that figure was when he suffered a broken foot.

Tennessee is averaging 27.8 points in its last seven games against Indianapolis. The Colts' defense carries a high fatigue rating having been involved in overtime games the last two weeks. Indy's defense was on the field for more than 32 minutes against Baltimore chasing Lamar Jackson and for nearly 40 minutes against the Rams this past Sunday. The bruising Henry is about the last running back the Colts want to face.

The Titans' offensive line could improve immensely with the return of tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere from suspension and if guard Peter Skoronski can play after being out with illness. Those are their two best offensive linemen.

Again, the bar is not set high going against the Colts' defense. It's an added plus playing on a fast track inside Indy's dome stadium.

Early reports on Shane Steichen are very positive. He's an aggressive, offensive guru who has helped accelerate the progress of rookie QB Anthony Richardson. The Colts showed no quit last week rallying from 23 points down in the second half against the Rams to force overtime. Richardson's effective dual threat talents can only be helped by the expected return of star running back Jonathan Taylor.

The Titans rank 23rd in pass defense. They've managed just three takeaways.

The Bears showed signs of finding their offensive identity this past Sunday in a 31-28 home loss to the Broncos. But their defense remains horrible. It's a prime reason why the Over has cashed in all four of Chicago's games this season.

Chicago had the worst defense last season and there hasn't been any improvement. The Bears are giving up 34.3 points, rank 29th in pass defense and have only two sacks.

Washington's defense has been disappointing. The Commanders are surrendering 30 points a game.

Both teams have mobile, young QB's backed by good wide receivers.

Justin Fields threw for a career-best 335 yards and four TD's against Denver. He has D.J. Moore, a ''B'' level wide receiver, to target along with emerging tight end Cole Kmet.

Sam Howell has his own ''B'' level wideout, Terry McLaurin, along with reliable Jahan Dotson to go against a banged-up Chicago secondary. The Bears have given up 25 or more points in each of their last 14 games.

The Commanders also have one of the more respected offensive coordinators, Eric Bieniemy.

This is a low total given how explosive the Cowboys can be with Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb.

The key is how many points can New England come in with? Don't be surprised if the Patriots score far more than you think.

The Patriots have played two of their three games in bad weather. They produced 382 yards of offense against a strong Eagles defense. New England has missed field goals and had costly turnovers inside Miami territory in its game against the Dolphins.

New England has played against the Eagles and Jets already, two of the better defenses in the league. Dallas' defense took a massive hit with its star cornerback Trevon Diggs suffering a season-ending knee injury during practice last week.

The Patriots' offensive line is improved with key players back. Ezekiel Elliott showed he still has some juice rushing for 80 yards against the Jets last week, averaging 5.0 yards a carry.

The Cowboys surrendered 28 points and 400 yards to the Cardinals this past week. Joshua Dobbs threw for 182 yards on just 21 attempts. James Connor rushed for 98 yards while averaging 7.0 yards a carry. Mac Jones is better than Dobbs and Rhamondre Stevenson is superior to Connor.

These teams have an Over history, too. They met two seasons ago and Dallas won, 35-29.

While I don't expect 64 points to be scored again, it's not a daunting task for these teams to go Over this number.

Yes, Jim Schwartz has made a difference as the Browns' new defensive coordinator. Cleveland's defense has improved. But I'm not buying its dominant numbers of giving up just 10.7 points a game and 163.7 yards, both of which are the best in the NFL.

Consider just who the Browns have played. They met the Bengals and a rusty Joe Burrow opening week. They then faced a Steelers offense going through growing pains with second-year QB Kenny Pickett and maybe the league's worst offensive coordinator, Matt Canada. After that it was the impotent Titans, who have the worst offensive line in the NFL coupled with over-the-hill skill position players.

Now the Browns draw Baltimore. Lamar Jackson has looked good running again. The Ravens' offensive line is healthy again for the first time in two weeks with left tackle Ronnie Stanley and center Tyler Linderbaum back practicing. Gus Edwards also is expected to play, giving Baltimore a legitimate power runner. Jackson has had three games to learn the Ravens' new emphasis on downfield passing. He has the best receivers he's ever had.

Deshaun Watson is off his finest game since joining the Browns, completing 81.8 percent of his passes for 289 yards and two TD's against the Titans last week. He should have had a third TD throw, but the referee made a mistake blowing his whistle thinking Amari Cooper had stepped out of bounds after a catch when Cooper had not. Like Jackson, Watson has the best receivers he's ever had in his career.

The totals bar is set low here. It's not asking too much for each of these teams to produce 20 points.

It's not just that both defenses have improved as to why I like the Under.

Check out the injury situation. I expect Aaron Jones and Christian Watson to play for Green Bay. Jones is a major upgrade on plodding A.J. Dillon, who is an Under bettor's dream every time he carries the ball for his two yards up the middle. But don't overlook offensive line injuries. As many as five starting offensive linemen could be missing.

The Packers definitely won't have their two best offensive lineman as left tackle David Bakhitari and left guard Elgton Jenkins are out. The Lions won't have right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai. Detroit also could be minus their other starting guard, Jonah Jackson, and left tackle Taylor Decker. Both Jackson and Decker are questionable.

There are quarterback issues, too. Jared Goff isn't mobile and has a history of not playing as well outdoors on grass as he does inside a dome. Jordan Love has accuracy issues and is averaging just 6.8 yards a completion.

Rashuan Gary is back for Green Bay. He had three sacks against the Saints last Sunday. Gary ranked tied for No. 2 in pressure percentage through the first eight games last season. But he suffered a season-ending knee injury in his ninth game and the Packers lost their pass rush without him.

The Lions have a stud defensive lineman, too, in Aidan Hutchinson. Gary and Hutchinson aren't at the Myles Garrett, T.J. Watt, Nick Bosa top passing rushing level. But they arguably could be in the second tier of pass rushers.

The Lions held the Falcons to 44 yards rushing on 20 carries last Sunday. Atlanta entered that matchup ranked fourth in the NFL in rushing at 170.5 yards per game. They had rushed for 100 yards in 18 of their previous 19 games. Detroit defensive back Brian Branch came out of that game as a potential Defensive Rookie of the Year player.

Note, too, this is a division matchup on a short week. These teams know each other well and there isn't time for them to put in new wrinkles.

This is a low total in today's NFL. I understand why the oddsmaker made it. The Panthers have shown nothing on offense. Seattle is missing its starting offensive tackles.

However, there is more than meets the eye here as to why this total should be higher.

Bryce Young hasn't moved the Carolina offense. But the rookie isn't going to play. Veteran Andy Dalton is. Look, I'm not a big Dalton fan. Never have been even when it was with the Bengals and was a decent starting QB. But Dalton is the right QB for the Panthers given Carolina's offensive limitations.

Dalton is a veteran. He'll take what the defense gives him and Seattle's defense is missing cornerbacks Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant. Free safety Quandre Diggs isn't likely to play either because of a hamstring injury. Dalton can take advantage of this and provide more stability than the work-in-progress Young could. Dalton has veteran pass-catchers Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark and tight end Hayden Hurst along with promising rookie Jonathan Mingo. The Panthers will be able to move the sticks.

The Seahawks got around their cluster injury problem at offensive tackle by having Geno Smith throw short. Seattle put up 37 points on the Lions on the road last week despite not having its starting offensive tackles. It's not like left tackle Charles Cross and right tackle Abe Lucas were All-Pro-caliber either.

Smith has one of the better wide receiver trios in the NFL with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njiba. Kenneth Walker is an above average running back.

The Panthers are missing two key defensive players with their No. 1 cornerback, Jaycee Horn, out with a hamstring injury and steady, veteran linebacker Shaq Thompson out with a leg/ankle injury.

Detroit's Ford Field indoor dome is the football equivalent of Colorado's Coors Field when it comes to high scoring.

I have to seriously look Over when there's a Lions home game and the total is less than a key 47. The Over has cashed in eight of the Lions' last 11 home games.

I'm not sold on Detroit's so-called defensive improvement, nor its run defense. The Lions faced mediocre rushing teams Kansas City and Seattle in their first two games. Now they get the Falcons, a top-three rushing team with the second-best all-around running back in the NFL, Bijan Robinson. Yes, Robinson already has established himself as that and he could soon overtake Christian McCaffrey as the best.

The Lions may choose to load the box to key on the Falcons' ground attack. That would be risky, though, even against Desmond Ridder because Detroit has a clustery injury problem in its secondary. Out are safeties Kerby Joseph, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and cornerback Emmanuel Moseley. Gardner-Johnson is an underrated player. The Lions' defense isn't nearly adequate enough to withstand multiple injuries.

Jared Goff has a history of playing much better at home. He's averaged more than two TD's per game at home. David Montgomery isn't likely to play for Detroit. That's not necessarily a bad thing for the Over. Montgomery is a North-South runner who eats clock with his inside running. Minus Montgomery the Lions could make exciting rookie Jahmyr Gibbs their featured back. Gibbs has been underutilized at this early stage of the season.

These two teams played in 2021. Seattle won, 51-29. The two teams played again last year this time in Detroit. Seattle won, 48-45.

Now look at how low the total is for this year's matchup.

I find it to be an overreaction to the Seahawks' dismal performance in their 30-13 home loss to the Rams this past Sunday. Not only were the Seahawks shut out in the second half, but they lost both of their starting offensive tackles to injuries.

I'm expecting a lot of points to be scored here just like in the previous two meetings. The conditions are perfect being on a fast track inside a dome.

Geno Smith played well last year. One bad game doesn't alter that. He has three dangerous wideouts and a potential star at running back, Kenneth Walker. The Lions may be improved defensively, but not by that much. They gave up the most yards in the NFL last season, 392.4, and ranked 26th in scoring defense.

As for Seattle's tackle situation, they lost Abraham Lucas but may get back Charles Cross. He's questionable with a toe injury. The Seahawks were very proactive about these injuries, signing Jason Peters. If nine-time Pro Bowl selection Peters has anything left at 41, the Seahawks will be fine.

The Lions averaged 33.1 points in their nine home games last season. Their offense could be even better this season with the addition of Jahmyr Gibbs. Jared Goff has the longest streak in the league of not throwing an interception with 359 passes of no interceptions.

Seattle could be minus star safety Jamal Adams. He missed opening week with a quad injury. Matthew Stafford took advantage of that to throw for 334 yards despite not having Cooper Kupp.

The good news for the Patriots offense is they'll get better coaching with Bill O'Brien taking over as offensive coordinator from the clown show they had last season.

The bad news is New England's offense still appears very tepid. The offensive line already is banged-up, Mac Jones excites no one and Rhamondre Stevenson, the one above average Patriot skill position player, is questionable due to illness. Ezekiel Elliott was brought in, but he's nothing more than a plus for the Under with his high mileage and boring north/south running style.

The Eagles have the premier defensive line in the NFL. Philadelphia had 70 sacks last season. The next closest team, the Chiefs, had 55. I see the Eagles dominating the Patriots' offensive line.

Once again, the Patriots' strength is their defense. Bill Belichick is especially effective with extra time to prepare. The Patriots have held their last four Week 1 foes to an average of 12.7 points a game. It's not a fluke the Under has cashed in each of New England's past five openers.

Rookie QB C.J. Stroud has well below average skill position talent around him. Now he goes into his first NFL game - on the road at a tough venue - missing four projected offensive line starters. The Texans suffered multiple injuries to their offensive line in August. They could be down to their third-string center while minus their second and third-best offensive linemen.

Making it worse for Stroud is facing an aggressive, veteran well-coached Ravens defense on the road. He certainly is not set up for success.

The Ravens are emphasizing passing for the first time with Lamar Jackson, learning a different offense and with a new offensive coordinator. So their timing could be off in this first game.

Houston's strength is its defense. The Texans should be competitive defensively under first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans, formerly a highly productive linebacker.

Patrick Mahomes practiced in full on Wednesday. If Mahomes is anywhere close to 100 percent after injuring his ankle last week, this total is too low.

Even with both team's defenses being underrated, the Bengals and Chiefs have too much offense for a total this low. Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL. Burrow is right near him on that short list with Josh Allen.

The Chiefs led the NFL in scoring at more than 29 points a game and also were No. 1 in total yards and passing yards. They have scored at 27 points in five of their last six games.

Burrow has even better weapons than Mahomes has. The Bengals have gone against five strong defenses during their last five games - Bills, Ravens twice, Patriots and Buccaneers. During this span, Cincinnati averaged 26.8 points.

Weather shouldn't be a problem with the forecast being for sunny skies, temperatures in the upper 20's and wind in the 10-12 mph range.

Not enough credit is being given to these defenses by how high this total is. San Francisco is the No. 1 defensive team in the NFL ranking first in scoring defense and total defense while placing second in run defense and takeaways. The Eagles easily led the NFL with 70 sacks.

Brock Purdy has been a huge success story surrounded by elite weapons and receiving excellent play-calling from Kyle Shanahan. But Purdy only has started two road games in the NFL and has never faced this level of pass rushers. The Eagles sacked Daniel Jones five times last week. Jones is far more mobile than Purdy.

I'm anticipating the 49ers to go run-heavy, which keeps the clock moving, and Shanahan being extremely careful and conservative with his play-calling. He knows the 49ers will be in trouble if they have to play from behind. San Francisco already plays at the slowest pace of any NFL team.

Jalen Hurts emerged as a superstar this season. But is his passing shoulder 100 percent healthy? Hurts and the Eagles haven't faced a defense this strong all season.

Weather-wise there's a slight chance of a rain shower with the wind blowing at 10-15 mph.

I trust the Cowboys' offensive line to do their job against the 49ers. The buy sign also is back on for Dak Prescott, who is off his best game of the season. Prescott threw for 305 yards against a good Buccaneers defense last week, while accounting for five touchdowns.

Brock Prudy - Mr. Relevant - has proven himself with multiple TD passes in each of seven starts. He has a 16-to-3 TD-to-interception ratio in his starts. The 49ers have scored 33 or more points in six of their last seven games with Purdy behind center.

The Cowboys' defense has sprung leaks. During four of the last five regular-season games they surrendered 23 points to the Texans, 40 points to the Jaguars, 34 to the Eagles, who were quarterbacked by backup Gardner Minshew, and 26 to the Commanders.

The Vikings can be explosive because of Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook and they are at home. Brian Daboll is no dummy. He knows this. His Giants have the least postseason experience of any of the playoff teams.

So it's not hard to figure that Daboll is going conservative here. That means lots of running and short passes to Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones not taking chances.

The Giants are better on defense because they are healthier. They've held their last four opponents to 17.7 points. New York is familiar with Minnesota. The teams just met three weeks ago. It took a 61-yard field goal at the gun by Greg Joseph - an inconsistent kicker - for the Vikings to prevail, 27-24, in that home game.

New York didn't have its best safety, Xavier McKinney, nor its top cornerback, Adoree' Jackson, in that game. Both are expected to play here. The Vikings could be down two offensive line starters with center Garrett Bradbury and right tackle Brian O'Neill both injured. Kirk Cousins has a history of not stepping up in big games. Rookie Kayvon Thibodeaux has shown signs lately of being an elite pass rusher.

The Vikings do not have good defensive numbers. However, they have a number of excellent defenders - Eric Kendricks, Danielle Hunter, Harrison Smith and Za'Darius Smith. Minnesota is good at takeaways ranking 12th in the league.

Two top-10 offenses facing two below average defenses. Justin Herbert versus Trevor Lawrence. All of this had me strongly leaning to the Over. But what clinched the Over is finding out who is going to be refereeing this game. It's the Shawn Smith crew.

This is significant. This umpiring crew has ranked in the top-five for calling the most defensive penalties each of the last four seasons. They also called the second-fewest offensive holding penalties this season.

Herbert should come up big against the Jaguars, who rank 28th in pass defense and 24th in defensive total yards.

Lawrence should perform well, too, operating against a Chargers defense that ranked 22nd in scoring defense and 20th in total defense. The Jaguars put up 38 points on the Chargers in Week 3 with Lawrence throwing for 262 yards and three touchdowns.

There weren't more than 34 points scored in either of the Seahawks-49ers regular season games this season. I don't see that pattern changing here.

San Francisco's No. 1 ranked defense, the weather and a run-oriented conservative approach by the 49ers behind rookie QB Brock Purdy are all key factors for the Under.

Discounting a 37-34 game against the Raiders, the 49ers have held their past nine opponents to an average of 12.2 points. San Francisco surrendered the fewest yards and points in the NFL.

There is a 90 percent chance of rain, potentially heavy, with wind in the 15-20 mph range. This is on a grass field so the footing is going to be slow.

Expect the 49ers to run a lot especially under these circumstances.

The Seahawks have regressed offensively, but gotten better defensively. Seattle is averaging 16.2 points in its last four games, while giving up an average of 16.7 points during this span.

Geno Smith has never been effective against elite defenses. He had just one touchdown pass in two games against San Francisco, averaging 217.5 yards passing. The 49ers tied for the lead in interceptions and had the second-most takeaways.

I see a shootout coming here. It's taken nearly the entire season, but the Packers finally have their offensive identity. Green Bay has one of the best running back tandems with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon and Aaron Rodgers has gotten in sync with his wide receivers. The bar is set low here as the Lions have a bottom-four defense. 

The Packers also finally have a special teams threat thanks to Keisean Nixon, who leads the NFL in kickoff return yardage and kickoff return average. 

The Lions have a top-five offense. They've scored at least 25 points in six of their last eight games. The Packers' defense has been thriving not because they are dominant, but because of forcing 12 turnovers during their last four games. Detroit, though, commits the fewest turnovers in the NFL. Jared Goff, who quietly has put together a very good season with 4,214 passing yards and 29 TD passes, hasn't been picked off in his last eight games. 

Weather shouldn't be a problem with the forecast being clear with the temperature around 20 and the wind at 5-to-10 mph.  

This total is too low given that Trevor Lawrence is playing the best since he came into the NFL, Davis Mills is underrated when playing at home and how bad these defenses are.

Lawrence has accounted for 16 touchdowns with only one interception during his last seven games. The Texans rank 30th in defensive total yards and last in run defense. So Lawrence should get plenty of ground assistance from Travis Eitenne. 

Mills plays much better at home. He's accounted for 13 of his 16 passing and rushing TD's this season at NRG Stadium. 

The Jaguars rank 26th in total defense and 29th in pass defense. 

The Bears are giving up 32.6 points per game in their last eight games. It's obvious their defense is broken. The Lions average 32.1 points at home. Jared Goff has a 20-to-3 TD-to-interception ratio at Ford Field compared to 6-to-4 in away games. His passer rating is nearly 20 points higher at home.

Safe to say, the Lions are going to get their share of points here. The big question is can the Bears keep up? They certainly did in the first meeting losing, 31-30. 

Justin Fields is motivated to break the NFL's quarterback rushing record. He's 195 yards short. Fields ran for 147 yards and two TD's in the 31-30 loss. The Lions just gave up 320 yards on the ground to the Panthers last week. 

Detroit gives up the most yards and points per game in the NFL. They also rank 30th in pass defense. 

This NFL matchup is going to be like Army-Air Force - nearly all running.

Both teams are heavily ground-oriented with backup quarterbacks, who will be dealing with horrendous weather elements, including cold and heavy wind making it difficult to pass.

Baltimore has managed only two touchdowns in its last three games while missing Lamar Jackson. Tyler Huntley is a game manager. He doesn't throw downfield and he's not accurate. The Ravens rank 29th in the red zone so they'll likely be settling for field goals in what should be a very conservative game.

Falcons coach Arthur Smith doesn't want rookie Desmond Ridder, in just his second NFL start, to throw much either. I see Smith stubbornly sticking with the run despite the Ravens ranking No. 3 against the run.

Both teams play at a slow tempo, too.

Just two weeks ago, the teams played each other to a 20-20 tie. The Giants had scored their 20 points by early in the third quarter. The Commanders came back to get the tie with 1:45 left in regulation on a Taylor Heinicke TD pass.

Since then, the Giants have gotten more beat up on defense while the Commanders finally enjoyed their bye week.

Now, in the rematch, I see more points being scored.

Daniel Jones has a strong history against Washington. He plays better against the Commanders than any other team. Saquon Barkley gives New York the best skill position player. This is the Giants' season so they'll be pulling out everything to put up points.

Heinicke, emerging Brian Robinson and ace pass catcher Terry McLaurin should have productive games against a fading and battered Giants defense that has allowed 411 or more yards in each of their last three games.

The Giants have been missing top cornerback Adoree Jackson, safety Xavier McKinney and run-stuffing defensive lineman Leonard Williams. New York is now down to 26th in total defense and 29th in run defense.

The Titans can't stop the pass, are missing their best pass rusher, Denico Autry, and have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. The Chargers can't stop the run and are missing key defensive backfield players. 

So this sets up as a higher scoring game than the oddsmaker anticipates. 

Derrick Henry entered this week ranked No. 2 in rushing. The Chargers are 28th in run defense and 28th in scoring defense. They are likely to be without star safety Derwin James and cornerback Bryce Callahan again this week. Henry should find success running, which in turn will aid Ryan Tannehill in the Titans' passing game. 

Mike Williams returned for the Chargers last week after missing two games with an ankle injury. That makes a huge difference in LA's passing attack. Williams is the Chargers' lone deep threat. He opens up the attack for Justin Herbert. 

Herbert is in line for a monster performance operating against a Titans secondary that ranks last in the NFL. 

The Chargers have been an elite kicking team this season unlike past years. LA kickers are 25-for-27 in field goals and 30-for-30 in extra points. 

Jared Goff in cold weather. Zach Wilson in any weather. That combination, along with a much-improved Lions defense and a tough Jets defense, puts me on the Under. 

Goff and the Lions offense isn't going to be high-powered against a Jets defense that ranks third in total defense and sixth in scoring defense especially in outdoor winter conditions. The forecast is for temperatures in the 30's with 15-to-29 mph winds. 

That's bad for a touch passer such as Goff, who has a poor record in cold elements. The Jets just held the Bills to 232 total yards last week. 

Wilson is another finesse passer. He lacks accuracy. He's been a bottom tier quarterback since joining the NFL last year. The Lions' defense has come on holding their last two opponents - Vikings and Jaguars - to a combined 37 points. 

The Texans don't have too many good players and they will be missing some of those players. Among those out for Houston are cornerback Derek Stingley, wide receivers Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins and its best skill position player, running back Dameon Pierce. This leaves Davis Mills, a garbage quarterback, with nothing but garbage as weapons.

The Chiefs can name their score. I predict they will name it in blowout fashion. Kansas City jumped in front of Denver, 27-0, last week before holding on for a 34-28 win. The Texans nearly upset the Cowboys last Sunday before losing in the final minute, 27-23. That might have been the Texans' Super Bowl.

So I don't see the Chiefs taking the Texans lightly here. That's all that matters because the Chiefs are the best team in the AFC, if not all of football, while the Texans are the worst.

Doubt must be cast on Tua Tagovailoa following two consecutive poor road performances these last two weeks against the 49ers and Chargers. Miami averaged just 260 total yards and 17 points in those two games. The Chargers' defense is 28th in scoring defense and was without several important defensive players.

I don't see the Dolphins bouncing back on the road against the Bills' defense, which gives up the second-fewest points and ranks in the top 10 in total defense.

Neither offense is going to be helped by the weather conditions with the forecast calling for cold, possible heavy snow and wind in the 15-20 mph range.

These elements take away the Dolphins' most dangerous offensive feature, which is the speed of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Tagovailoa remains unproven in big road games and in cold weather. The Dolphins managed only 212 yards in the first meeting, played in sunny Florida. There were 40 points scored in that contest.

Now the weather has flipped and Miami's offense is at low tide for the first time since Tagovailoa returned from a concussion.

The Vikings rank 10th in scoring. Indy is 30th in takeaways with just 11. The Vikings are expected to get back injured starting offensive linemen left tackle Christian Darrisaw and center Garrett Bradbury. Minnesota averages 1.6 yards more rush when Darrisaw plays. The Colts just yielded 54 points and eight TD's in their last game. So I expect the Vikings to do their fair share of getting this total Over.

Same with the Colts.

Indy is off a bye and has a healthy Jonathan Taylor to give Matt Ryan ground support and thus make his play-action passing more effective.

The Vikings have yielded more than 400 yards in each of their last five games. During this span, the Vikings have permitted more than 30 points per game.

Daniel Jones doesn't make enough downfield passing plays. Saquon Barkley is averaging just 2.8 yards rushing in his last three games on 44 carries. The Eagles rank No. 1 in pass defense and No. 2 in total defense. Their run defense has gotten much better with Joseph Linval and Ndamkong Suh joining a now healthy Jordan Davis.

The Giants have a bend-but-don't-break defense that gives up the 12th fewest points at 21 per game. New York's pass rush has picked up with both Azeez Ojulari and Kayvon Thibodeaux healthy.

Both teams are run-oriented. The forecast is for light rain. This is the Giants' season. So I see a tight, ball-control conservative game plan.

This should be a loose and fun game between a pair of 4-7 teams.This matchup is inside a dome thus ensuring a fast track. Both head coaches are aggressive. All pluses for an Over.

Trevor Lawrence is finally living up to his immense hype. He's enjoying his best three-game NFL stretch completing 77 percent of his throws for six TD's and no interceptions during this span. The Jaguars just put up 28 points against a much better Ravens defense.

The Lions give up the most points in the NFL at 28.2. They've allowed 24 or more points in all but two of their games.

Detroit, though, is a top-eight scoring team. The Lions have scored at least 30 points in five of their 11 games. Jared Goff is a much better quarterback when playing in warm weather. He faces a Jaguars pass defense that ranks 25th.

Jimmy Garoppolo is becoming dangerous. It's easy to see why when he has a good offensive line and skill position players Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk to surround him. The 49ers are averaging 30.3 points in their last three games.

The Saints have been without their best cornerback, Marhson Lattimore, and two best defensive linemen, Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport. New Orleans is surrendering an average of 28.7 points in its last seven games if you discount a freakish shutout of the Raiders.

I don't see the Saints stopping the 49ers. The Saints should be able to contribute their share of points, too. Andy Dalton is off his best game of the season completing 21 of 25 passes for 260 yards and three TD's against the Rams last week.

Justin Herbert is back on track and has most of his weapons back. Kyler Murray is ready to go after missing the last two games with a hamstring injury. He has Deandre Hopkins and could have Marquise Brown. Also back for the Cardinals is James Conner, their best running back. Conner is a touchdown machine with 22 TD's in his last 23 games.

Neither defense is any good.

So this total is too low because it's not fully accounting for these factors.

The Chargers allow 25.8 points a game. That ranks 29th. They rank 30th in run defense and 25th in defensive total yards. The Cardinals' attack is far more dynamic with Murray instead of short-armed game manager Colt McCoy.

The Cardinals just surrendered four touchdowns to the 49ers. They are on a short week after playing in high altitude this past Monday in Mexico City. The Cardinals entered this week ranked tied for second-to-last in scoring defense allowing 26.9 points a game.

I wouldn't try to buck this total - even though it's low by today's NFL offensive-driven standards - if the quarterback matchup was going to be Trevor Siemian versus Zack Wilson. But it's not.

There's a chance Justin Fields plays and Wilson definitely won't start, replaced by Mike White, who threw for 405 yards and three touchdowns against the Bengals in his first start last year.

Fields has accounted for 14 touchdowns in his last four games. The Bears are averaging 29.6 points during their past five games. The Bears' first-year offensive coordinator Luke Getsy has gotten more comfortable in directing a more aggressive Chicago offense. Even if Siemian gets the call, the Bears' passing attack has improved. Siemian is a veteran, who might be a more accurate passer than Fields.

The Jets' defense isn't expected to have defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins. That would be a boost to David Montgomery.

The key here, though, is the Jets' offense should be energized with the quarterback switch away from the egregious Wilson. The Bears' defense has become dreadful after dealing away their best defender, linebacker Roquan Smith. Chicago has allowed 20 or more points in eight of its last 10 games. In their last four games, the Bears have permitted 27, 31, 35 and 49 points.

It's taken only two years, but Robert Saleh has built a strong Jets defense. New York is giving up just 15.8 points per game during its last six games.

The Jets just held the powerful Bills to 17 points in their last game two weeks ago. They certainly are capable of holding the Patriots' pop-gun attack to 17 points or fewer, too.

Defenses should dominate this matchup. Both teams are coached by defensive gurus and have had two weeks to prepare. Each team has an inexperienced, game-manager for a quarterback.

The Jets sacked Mac Jones six times in the first meeting. They held New England to 3.8 yards a play and 288 total yards of offense. The Jets' defensive line holds a huge edge against the Patriots' mediocre-to-bad offensive line.

Bill Belichick has been dominating inexperienced quarterbacks such as Zach Wilson for a long time. The Patriots picked off Wilson three times in their victory two games ago. The Patriots feature the NFL's sack leader, Matt Judon. He has 11 1/2 sacks.

The weather could work against these offenses, too, with the forecast being for temperatures in the 30's with wind in the 15-17 mph range. That should ensure plenty of running plays.

A total of less than 41 in today's NFL, which is unfairly skewed toward offense and scoring, is a very low bar.

Both the Texans and Giants have excellent running backs and each defense has trouble stopping the run. The Texans have the worst run defense in the NFL by far yielding more than 180 yards a game on the ground. They have to deal with Saquon Barkley, who has regained his stature as a top-five running back and will have fresh legs following New York's bye last week.

If I could pick one player to have in fantasy football this week at running back it would be Barkley. The Giants also are getting healthier at wide receiver. If you discount the Texans holding the Jaguars to six points, Houston would be giving up an average of 28.2 points in their last five games.

The Texans should contribute to this total going Over riding Dameon Pierce, who is averaging 23.3 carries and 110 yards rushing during his last six games. The Giants are permitting 5.4 yards per carry, ranking 25th in run defense. There's the possibility the Texans get back Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins this week. They are the Texans' top two wide receivers.

The perception is the Chargers are an explosive team. They were at the start of the season before injuries struck. Now they aren't. Take away star pass protector left tackle Rashawn Slater, wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and Justin Herbert is left playing dump off to Austin Ekeler. Herbert also is banged-up with a painful rib injury. He's thrown only six touchdown passes in his last five games.

The Falcons have cornerback injuries. But Herbert is just left with inexperienced wideouts and tight end Gerald Everett. So he's not going to be able to exploit that as much as the oddsmaker anticipates with this high of a total.

Atlanta is being looked upon as a high scoring team off a 37-point game against the Panthers. The Falcons, however, were averaging 20.7 points during their previous four games. They rank 29th in passing and 25th in total yards.

The Falcons are not about super-talented Kyle Pitts and Drake London. Instead they feature mundane reserve running backs Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley in Arthur Smith's caveman run-oriented, eat-up-clock slow moving offense. Marcus Mariota has been in the NFL for eight years. He's still more feared as a runner than passer.

This one is priced wrong so I'm going Under.

The Packers' defense looks far better on paper than it does on the field. Despite facing four below average quarterbacks in their last four matchups, including two backups and Zach Wilson, the Packers still are giving up 25.2 points during these past four games.

Now Green Bay draws Josh Allen and a Buffalo offense that is No. 2 in scoring at 29.3 points and first in total offense averaging 440.8 yards. The Bills are fresh, too, having been idle last week.

Safe to say the Bills will score their share of points. But can the Packers contribute to getting this total Over? Yes, they can.

Despite all the negative publicity and not having Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers has put up respectable numbers entering this week sixth in the NFL in touchdown passes with 11 and 10th in passing yards with 1,597.

Rodgers is going to have to keep up with Allen. That's especially the case if the Bills should build a lead, which is expected. The Packers won't have Allen Lazard, who has been their top wide receiver. But they do get Sammy Watkins back. Watkins won't lack motivation going against his former team. The Bills have multiple injuries in their secondary, down two studs in Tre'Davious and Micah Hyde.

Jimmy Garoppolo is a mediocre quarterback. But he's savvy enough to know how to distribute the ball to his weapons - and he just gained a monster weapon in Christian McCaffrey.

The Rams' defense is far from dominant, surrendering 22 or more points in four of their six games.

Look for the Rams' offense to pick up following their bye. Sean McVay should have some new wrinkles and a healthier offensive line with center Brian Allen returning.

Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp will hurt a 49ers defense that has been dealing with multiple injuries to their secondary along with linebacker Dre Greenlaw joining Arik Armstead on the sidelines.

The Steelers have long been a great Under team on the road. The Under has cashed in 70 percent of their last 65 away games. The Dolphins have gone Under in 11 of their last 16 overall games.

Look for these strong trends to hold up here.

Kenny Pickett has cleared concussion protocol so he'll get the start. Perhaps Pickett one day might be a decent NFL starting QB. He isn't right now with a 67 passer rating and a 1-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Miami has a strong pass rush and the Steelers have a below average offensive line. Only two teams score fewer points per game than Pittsburgh's 16.2 average.

The Steelers held Tom Brady and Tampa Bay to only 18 points last week despite missing four of their top five defensive backs. They should get most of those players back, including former Dolphin and star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. He's a difference-maker. The Steelers showed against the Buccaneers that they have underrated depth in their secondary.

Tua Tagovailoa is back to start for Miami. The Steelers should be well prepared for him thanks to linebackers and special defensive assistant coach Brian Flores, who was the Dolphins head coach last year. The heady Fitzpatrick also knows his old team well.

This total is too short given the 49ers' multiple injuries on defense and also because Jimmy Garoppolo is off his two finest performances of the season and now facing a mediocre Chiefs defense.

First, though, let's discuss the Chiefs' offense. Have the Chiefs missed Tyreek Hill? No, they rank first in the NFL in scoring at 29.8 points per game. Patrick Mahomes is either the first or second-best QB in football depending on how you feel about Josh Allen. Mahomes is my choice.

Next up is Mahomes drawing the 49ers' defense at a great time. San Francisco has a cluster injury problem in its defensive line AND defensive backfield. The 49ers are down defensive linemen Javon Kinlaw and Arik Armstead. Nick Bosa is questionable with a groin injury. He won't be 100 percent if he plays. San Francisco is even more vulnerable in the secondary. Because of injuries to Emmanuel Moseley, Jimmie Ward and Charvarius Ward, the 49ers could be starting a rookie fifth-rounder and second-year fifth-rounder at the corners. Safety Talanoa Hufanga could be out, too, because of a concussion.

I see a shootout here because the 49ers are clicking on offense. Jimmy Garoppolo is off his two best games of the season throwing for a combined 549 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions the last two weeks.

The Chiefs give up 24.8 points a game. They rank 27th in pass defense. Kansas City only has four takeaways.

It would be an extra boost for the 49ers if their starting tackles, left tackle Trent Williams and right tackle Mike McGlinchey, are able to play. There is optimism that both will be ready. Even if they aren't, the 49ers' attack is based on running and short passes.

Only once in six games have the Broncos permitted more than 17 points during regulation. They could have the best defense in the NFL, considering how bad their offense is, ranking second in fewest yards per play, third in defensive total yards and fourth in scoring defense.

Second-year QB Zach Wilson continues to show nothing holding the Jets' offense hostage.  

Russell Wilson has the credibility, but his level of play hasn't been that much higher than Zach Wilson's. The Broncos have scored just seven TD's in six games with the worst red zone offense in the league. Russell Wilson is dealing with injuries to his shoulder and groin. If he can't go, the Broncos would be forced to start game-manager Brett Rypien, which would be even better for the Under. 

The Jets' defense is much improved, ranking ninth in total defense. They just held the Packers to 10 points at Green Bay. 

Weather is a factor here as well with heavy winds expected and a chance of rain. 

The Bengals' offensive line and Joe Mixon have played much better the past two games. Their improvement is huge for Joe Burrow, who was 28-for-37 for 300 yards and 3 TD's in the Bengals' 30-26 victory against the Saints last Sunday.

Expect to see the Bengals continue their high-scoring ways as they draw an Atlanta defense that doesn't rush the passer well - just eight sacks - and could be without both of its starting cornerbacks. Casey Hayward is out with a shoulder injury. A.J. Terrell is questionable with a thigh injury. The Falcons rank 31st in pass defense.

The Falcons have been surprisingly efficient offensively scoring 26 or more points in four of their games. They rank eighth in scoring at 24.3 behind a strong ground attack that is No. 3 in the NFL. The Falcons should be able to run on the Bengals, whose run defense is down two of their most underrated players - nose tackle D.J. Reader and linebacker Logan Wilson. Cincinnati ranks 21st in run defense.

New Orleans isn't good anymore on defense. The Saints have yielded at least 20 points in every one of their games. They are giving up an average of 30 points during their last three games. Just two weeks ago, the Saints were lit up by Geno Smith in a 39-32 win.

The Cardinals have yet to reach their stride offensively. However, they have moved the ball ranking fifth in total yards. Kyler Murray should be in line for a big game. The Saints have only one interception and will be minus their top cornerback, Marshon Lattimore.

Murray lost Marquise Brown, but DeAndre Hopkins is off the suspended list and newcomer Robbie Anderson provides a deep threat.

I'm fine with whomever the Saints start at quarterback whether it's Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston or even Taysom Hill. The key for the Saints is Alvin Kamara, he should come up big against a mediocre Cardinals defense. Star rookie wideout Chris Olave is back from injury to bolster the Saints' downfield passing attack. Tight end Juwan Johnson is an underrated pass catcher for the Saints.

It's been a week and I still haven't recovered from the stench of last Thursday night's NFL game when the Colts beat the Broncos, 12-9, in overtime. I wouldn't blame Roger Goodell - or put it past him - if he secretly made sure there is more offense in this Thursday game. Amazon Prime Video must have real buyer's remorse having shelled out a reported $1.2 billion per year to acquire the Thursday night broadcasts.

Now we get what looks like another stinker, the Commanders against the Bears. Tough to get involved with a side here. I'll hold my nose and go Over this total. It's an extremely low number given how the game has become so unfairly skewed toward the offense. Fortunately for viewing purposes, Jerome Boger and his inept crew of excessive flag throwers won't be the officiating crew here. They'll be doing their part to ruin the Jaguars-Colts game.

Carson Wentz has thrown the second-highest amount of passes. Justin Fields has thrown the fewest passes of any quarterback who has started more than two games. Look for Wentz to throw fewer passes and for Fields to throw more passes. That will make both of them more effective.

Wentz actually looked very good the first two weeks of the season when he went against the Jaguars and Lions. The Commanders have averaged only 11.6 points during their last three games going against better defenses in the Eagles, Cowboys and Titans. The Bears rank second-to-last in the NFL in run defense and 22nd in defensive total yards. That's going against three of five offenses that were rendered weak at the time because of the situation: 49ers going with inexperienced Trey Lance on the road in a monsoon, Texans and Giants, who had both Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor injured against Chicago.

Wentz is a cripple shooter. He's not good against elite defenses. However, he's fully capable of putting up good numbers against weak-to-mediocre defenses especially when given the benefit of a decent running attack. Power back Brian Robinson has returned to the Commanders' lineup bolstering their rushing balance. Wentz has 10 TD passes. Only four QB's have thrown more.

Keep in mind the bar is set low with this short total.

Cooper Kupp has 49 receptions. Justin Fields has 49 pass completions. Maybe Fields never will be a good enough downfield passer to cut it in the NFL. But Chicago needs to find that out. It's been five weeks now. The Bears' offensive line is not as terrible as perceived. It's actually held up well. The Bears finally started to open things up more after falling behind 21-3 to the Vikings on the road last Sunday. Chicago actually went in front, 22-21, before losing on a Minnesota touchdown with 2:26 left. Fields nearly engineered a successful late drive that could have tied the game, but his receiver was stripped of the ball at Minnesota's 39-yard line following a 15-yard completion.

That come-from-behind effort, though, should boost the Bears' confidence in Fields and the offense. Fields threw for a season-high 208 yards against the Vikings, completed 71.4 percent of his throws and had a passer rating of 118.8. The Commanders rank 25th in scoring defense giving up 25.6 points a game. They have just one takeaway.

Once again, the bar is set extremely low on this total. So I'm going Over.

No Tyreek Hill, no problem. The Chiefs' offense is just as deadly this season without Hill due to the greatness of Patrick Mahomes and stronger wide receiving and running back depth.

The Raiders have three sacks and three takeaways in four games. Aside from Maxx Crosby, they don't have any big-play defenders. They certainly don't have enough depth in the defensive backfield to effectively slow down the many receiving targets that Mahomes has.

The Chiefs are averaging 37.4 points during the eight games Mahomes has played against the Raiders. This includes last season when the Chiefs scored a combined 89 points versus Las Vegas.

Las Vegas, though, will do its share, too, to make sure this total goes Over. Derek Carr has never had a wide receiver as good as Davonte Adams. The Raiders' offensive line has shown positive signs of coming around and Josh Jacobs is off his finest game of the season. He may be the best running back on the field. Daniel Carlson may be the second-best kicker in the NFL next to Justin Tucker.

Kansas City just gave up 31 points, 373 passing yards and 27 first downs to the Buccaneers last week. Tampa Bay entered that game averaging just 17 points in its first three games.

This has been an Over series with the last four going above the total.

I'm going to pounce on going Over 40 1/2 in the Giants-Packers London game with the belief that either Daniel Jones or Tyrod Taylor will be able to play for the Giants.

If that's the case, this total is way too low.

The Packers are getting better on offense each week as their offensive line rounds into shape and Aaron Rodgers gets more in sync with his new rookie wide receivers. Rodgers has Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon - perhaps the best running back tandem in the league - at his disposal along with several veteran receivers.

Green Bay is going to have to contend with a rejuvenated Saquon Barkley, who has 463 rushing yards. That's more than 21 NFL teams. The Packers allowed the Patriots to average 5.1 rushing yards per carry on 33 attempts last week.

The defenses of these two teams are way ahead of their offenses making this total too high.

The Colts are last in scoring at 14.3 points a game. Indy's offensive line has performed below expectations and Matt Ryan is off to a slow start. Ryan has committed seven turnovers in four starts and been sacked 15 times. The Broncos have a top-six defense. Patrick Surtain has emerged as a lock-down cornerback.

Making matters potentially worse for the Colts is an ankle injury suffered by Jonathan Taylor this past Sunday. Even if he manages to play, Taylor won't be 100 percent especially on a short week.

Denver is averaging only 16.5 points. Russell Wilson also is off to a slow beginning with his new team. The Broncos just lost their best running back, Javonte Williams, to a season-ending knee injury. That means a heavy dose of mediocre Melvin Gordon, who has a fumbling problem. Gordon has lost the ball in five of his last 44 carries.

The Colts rank sixth in total defense and rush defense.

The Buccaneers have given up the fewest points in the league. Tom Brady is off to a slow start. The Chiefs are off a loss to the Colts in which they were held to 17 points.

So I get why this total is low given the caliber of these offenses.

I just find it too low.

The Chiefs had scored 24 or more points in 10 straight games until last week's loss to the Colts. The Chiefs were hurt offensively by some questionable official's calls and missed kicks from a backup kicker. They have since switched kickers with Harrison Butker still not ready.

The Buccaneers have an outstanding defense. No argument there. But it's not as dominant as the numbers show. Tampa Bay's opponents were the Cowboys, who are thin at wide receiver and in the offensive line, turnover-prone and banged-up Jameis Winston and the Saints and the ground-oriented Packers, who are in wide receiver development.

Kansas City doesn't have superstar Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs, though, have better wide receiver and running back depth than they've had before to compensate. They are two levels higher than any offense the Buccaneers have faced so far this season.

The Buccaneers are not facing an elite defense taking on the Chiefs. Brady should get back into rhythm with the Buccaneers getting healthier in the offensive line and at wide receiver. Mike Evans coming off suspension is huge.

Both teams have surprised on offense. The Browns are averaging 28.3 points, rank fifth in total yards and have the NFL's leading rusher, Nick Chubb. 

The Falcons are averaging 26.7 points. They've faced a pair of respectable defenses, too, in the Rams and Saints. 

A key is each team's quarterback has performed better than many expected. Jacoby Brissett has completed 74 percent of his throws with three TD passes during his last two games. Marcus Mariota has completed 63.3 percent of his passes, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt, on the season. He's given the Falcons a running dimension they haven't had at quarterback during the long Matt Ryan era. 

The Falcons have three playmakers - Cordarrelle Patterson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. The Browns permitted washed-up Joe Flacco to have his best game in a decade two weeks ago allowing him to throw for 307 yards and four TD passes. The Browns lost linebacker Anthony Walker to a season-ending injury last week and won't have premier pass rusher Myles Garrett, who was involved in a car accident this week. 

The Browns' dominant offensive line should control the line of scrimmage against the Falcons. Atlanta yields 27 points a game and ranks 26th in total defense. 

The oddsmaker has overreacted to no Dak Prescott with this low of a total. 

Cooper Rush is a serviceable backup quarterback. He's not a stiff. He has skill position talent to rely on. Ezekiel Elliott looks much better than he did last season. Tony Pollard is a home run threat and drawing more playing time. The Cowboys also get back Michael Gallup to upgrade their wide receiving corps. The Giants aren't likely to have Leonard Williams, their best defensive lineman. 

The Giants are far more credible on offense under Brian Daboll. New York's offensive line has improved and Saquan Barkley is running the best he has since his rookie season, finally free of injuries. Barkley entered Week 3 leading the NFL in rushing yards.

It doesn't take much in today's NFL, with its rules skewed toward offense, to get above a total less than 40. 

Emerging skill position talent, above average offensive line and a still-terrible defense make the Lions an attractive Over team. The Lions have sailed well above the total in each of their last four games, including both games this season.

I see that trend continuing against the Vikings, whose offense is unshackled with a coaching switch from old school Mike Zimmer to Kevin O'Connell.

The Lions are the second-highest scoring team in the NFL at 35.5 points. Detroit's already good offensive line gets back center Frank Ragnow. The Vikings have aging and slow cornerbacks. They also are likely to be minus star safety Harrison Smith, who suffered a concussion this past Monday.

The Vikings should feast at home versus a bottom-three Lions defense that is allowing 32.5 points and 425.5 yards per game.

Carson Wentz lit up a bad Jacksonville defense last Sunday. He's capable of doing that given the underrated receiving weapons he has to go with Terry McLaurin in Curtis Samuel, Jahan Dotson, a healthy Logan Thomas and both Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic out of the backfield.

The Lions' defense is as bad as Jacksonville's defense, if not worse. Detroit is giving up an average of 39.6 points in its last three games going back to last season.

Detroit has firepower, though. Jared Goff plays his best when he's home on a fast indoor track and the conditions are pristine. That's the case here.

The Commanders yielded 22 points to the inefficient Jaguars last week, who continually made mistakes on offense. The Commanders didn't really stop the Jaguars. The Jaguars stopped themselves. Washington remains without its best interior defensive player with Chase Young out.

These teams have as many defensive stars as they do offensive stars. It's the offensive stars and offensive linemen, though, that are the banged-up parts of these teams, though.

The Buccaneers traditionally struggle against New Orleans. The last time these teams met, the Saints shut out the Buccaneers, 9-0. Tampa Bay is 0-4 in its last four regular-season meetings against New Orleans. Tom Brady turned the ball over 10 times and was sacked 13 times during these four games.

Brady could be in for another long day as the Buccaneers have cluster injury problems in the offensive line and wide receiver. Every one of Tampa Bay's wideouts is dealing with some sort of injury. Chris Godwin is unlikely to play. The Bucs are forced to start two inexperienced offensive line starters, too, because of injuries. Right tackle Tristan Wirfs is Tampa Bay's only reliable offensive lineman.

The Saints have offensive line issues, too. Their offensive line has regressed because of injuries and defections. Alvin Kamara also is dealing with sore ribs.

Both teams have defensive coaches now as their head coach. The Saints go from Sean Payton to Dennis Allen, who was either defensive coordinator or interim head coach during the past four games between the two teams, while Todd Bowles is the Buccaneers head coach replacing Bruce Arians. Payton and Arians were each well-respected for their offensive acumen. Allen and Bowles are sharp, too, - but on the defensive side.

The total is large here, but not big enough given the matchup. 

Buffalo's defense rates among the best going by last year's statistics. Truth be told, though, it's not as good as it's ranking, especially with star cornerback Tre'Davious White out with a knee injury. The Bills fatten their defensive numbers by steamrolling easy competition. Buffalo played only two playoff teams during the regular season - the Patriots and Chiefs before they got rolling. 

The Bills are really going to miss White in trying to deal with Cooper Kupp, who had maybe the finest receiving season in NFL history with 145 receptions for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. The Rams upgraded their No. 2 wideout position, too, signing Allen Robinson. Also Cam Akers, LA's most talented running back, has proclaimed himself healthy. The Rams finished in the top-nine in scoring and yards last season. They should do even better this season. 

I'm more sold on the Bills' offense compared to their defense. Buffalo's passing attack is a fine oiled machine right now. Josh Allen is the No. 1 fantasy quarterback. Buffalo scored the third-most points in the NFL last season. The Bills could be even more dangerous with the emergence of speedster Isaiah McKenzie in the slot and the pass-catching talents out of the backfield of rookie James Cook to go with elite wideout Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis and tight end Dawson Knox. 

The Rams may have the top cornerback in the league, Jalen Ramsey. But their strength is star power not depth. They don't have enough quality players in the secondary to stay up with all of Allen's targets. Allen also neutralizes Aaron Donald because of his tremendous mobility. The two most explosive offenses the Rams faced during their last 11 games were the Packers and Buccaneers. Green Bay scored 36 points. Tampa Bay produced 27 points. 

Another plus for the Over is the game being played on a fast track at SoFi Stadium, which has artificial turf. This is the first game of the season. It's nationally televised. The league wants points to be scored that's why rules have been skewed to favor offense. I can't imagine the NFL wants its opening showcase game to be littered with a lot of offensive holding penalties either. 

Given the high quality of quarterbacks, wide receivers and offensive coaching acumen and aggressiveness of Sean McVay and Zac Taylor, I easily envision at least 50 points being scored in this Super Bowl just like eight of the last 13 Super Bowls.

Defenses don't have a chance anymore against great offenses in today's modern game. The NFL has manipulated the rules so much that quarterbacks and wide receivers get way too much protection.

Teamed up for the first time under offensive guru McVay, Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp produced their finest seasons. The Bengals ranked 26th in pass defense. The Rams are going to get their points here. LA is back to being balanced with the return of Cam Akers to go with inside runner Sony MIchel.

Only Tom Brady threw more TD passes than Stafford. Kupp had one of the greatest receiving years in NFL history leading the league in receptions, receiving yards and receiving TD's. Kupp hasn't been contained all season.

Burrow and his trio of outstanding receivers plus Joe Mixon, the NFL's third-leading rusher, trump LA's defense. The Rams have a pair of defensive studs in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. However, the Rams are below par at linebacker and safety. This is where they are really going to miss underrated injured safety Jordan Fuller, who was the Rams' captain, defensive signal-caller and leading tackler.

The Rams are most vulnerable in the middle of the field. This is where Burrow likes to attack with short passes to his trio of star wideouts Ja'Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins, who has come on to produce five 100-yard receiving games in his last nine games. The threat of Mixon helps keep LA's strong pass rush neutralized.

Neither McVay nor Taylor coach scared. They aren't afraid to go for it on fourth down. This is the right way to coach when both team's have outstanding offenses and the rules are skewed almost completely in favor of the offense.

Here are my Super Bowl props: 

I don't trust the Rams' offense against the 49ers. San Francisco held LA to an average of 17 points and 271.5 yards in the team's two meetings this season. The Rams have been held to an average of 17.5 points during their last four games against San Francisco.

Matthew Stafford had a great season with 41 TD passes. But Stafford also tied Trevor Lawrence for the most interceptions with 17. The 49ers can generate a strong pass rush without having to blitz. This is huge because Stafford is strong against blitzes. Nick Bosa can be just as disruptive to an offense as Aaron Donald is for the Rams.

Keep an eye on the status of each team's starting offensive left tackles. The 49ers' Trent Williams was on crutches following the 49ers' win against the Packers last week, while the Rams' Andrew Whitworth missed his team's victory against the Buccaneers because of an ankle injury.

The 49ers ranked No. 3 in defensive total yards. They were in the top seven against both the run and pass.

The Rams' pass rush has come on strong with Von Miller making an impact. Jalen Ramsey gives the Rams the best defensive back. The 49ers are heavily ground-oriented so that is going to eat clock.

I don't trust Jimmy Garoppolo. He's an extremely limited quarterback.

So Under is the best course of action.

This is one of the Packers' strongest offenses ever thanks to Aaron Rodgers, who during his last 6 1/2 games threw for 1,929 yards with a 20-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Rodgers has a deep wide receiving corps headed by Davante Adams, a top three overall wide receiver, and one of the best running back combos in the league, Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.

Cold weather isn't going to derail this attack especially when wind won't be a major factor. The 49ers don't have the backend up to hang with all of Rogers' targets. Green Bay could have nearly its entire starting offensive line intact, too, for the first time this season. San Francisco is hoping to have back its best two defenders, pass rusher Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner. Both were injured against the Cowboys last week. It's just an added bonus for Green Bay if either of those players is out.

The cold elements shouldn't bother the 49ers either because their attack is predicated on running and Jimmy Garoppolo playing point guard distributing short passes to Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, all of whom are outstanding at gaining yards after the catch. Samuel has the most unique skill set in the NFL with his pass catching skills, rushing talents and even the ability to pass.

The Packers could get back cornerback Jaire Alexander and pass rusher Za'Darius Smith. Even if those two return, they aren't likely to play the entire game and their talents are more suited to defend against the pass rather than the run. The physical 49ers should control the trenches when running.

Green Bay's defense slipped noticeably as the season wore on. If you throw out holding the Vikings to just 10 points when Sean Mannion was Minnesota's QB, the Packers have surrendered an average of 30.1 points during their last six games.

The Chiefs' explosive offense is back on track averaging 35.4 points during their last five games. This includes producing 36 points against the Steelers in Week 16. The Chiefs scored on each of their first four possessions, piling up 381 total yards of offense. Patrick Mahomes threw for 258 yards and 3 TD's despite not having Travis Kelce. 

Pittsburgh has surrendered at least 36 points in four of its last five road games. 

Safe to say, the Chiefs are going to get their share of points here. 

But what about the Steelers? Can Pittsburgh contribute its share of points? 

I believe the Steelers can. The Chiefs' run defense has become leaky giving up an average of 143.2 yards rushing in their last four games. If Najee Harris is effective on the ground, the Steelers' passing attack can be effective off play-action. 

If the Chiefs load up to stop the run by committing their safeties, Ben Roethlisberger will attack their man coverage. Roethlisberger won't be shy about passing in what likely is his final game. 

It's easy to remember the Raiders' last game. That being a memorable, 35-32, home overtime victory against the Chargers on national TV this past Sunday night.

Those combined 67 points and Joe Burrow's hot hand may have influenced this opening total, which I find too high given the matchup and expected weather conditions.

The forecast is for temperatures to be in the 20s with a 50 percent chance of snow. Las Vegas hasn't played in under 44 degree weather all season.

Burrow was sizzling in Weeks 16 and 17 combining to pass for nearly 1,000 yards with eight TD's. Burrow, though, may have lost some of his hot hand after being rested this past Sunday. The Raiders are a respectable 13th in pass defense. Las Vegas had allowed 15.6 points in its past three games prior to meeting the Chargers.

Cincinnati's defense was much improved this season especially against the run, ranking fifth in the NFL. The Bengals held the Raiders to 13 points and fewer than 300 yards of offense in their, 32-13, victory in Week 11.

Before scoring 35 points on the Chargers, the Raiders had averaged only 14 points during their last five games. Derek Carr needs Josh Jacobs to keep him out of obvious passing situations. I don't see Jacobs doing much, though, against Cincinnati's strong rush defense.

Prop Bet

When healthy, Darren Waller is one of the top-five tight ends in football. Waller missed Weeks 13-17, but returned last week against the Chargers.

I understand that both of these offenses have regressed very much.

But this total is too low especially with this game being played on a fast track inside a dome.

The Saints may get both of their starting offensive tackles, Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramzcyk, back. That would be a huge plus as Armstead and Ramzcyk are well above average.

I consider dual threat Taysom Hill a major upgrade on Trevor Siemian. Alvin Kamara is an elite all-purpose back. Hill will be operating against an Atlanta defense that ranks 29th in points allowed, 26th in run defense and 24th in total defense.

Matt Ryan has endured a down season. But he's not devoid of weapons with Cordarrelle Patterson, who has put together a Kamara-type all-purpose season with 1,154 yards from scrimmage, and star tight end Kyle Pitts, who will be trying to break Mike Ditka's rookie record for tight end receiving yardage.

Two bad offenses playing in cold weather. Sounds like an Under, right? No, not when the total is this low and two worn down defenses are involved. 

The Giants are giving up an average of 30.6 points during their last three games. The Bears have scored at least 22 points in three of their past four games. 

David Montgomery is in line for a big performance with the Giants possibly down several of their run-stuffing defensive linemen. Andy Dalton can be effective with Montgomery doing the heavy lifting. Dalton has several underrated receiving targets. Matt Nagy shouldn't be afraid to open the playbook for the veteran Dalton. It's not like Nagy has anything to lose since he's likely to be canned at the end of the season.  

Former Bear Mike Glennon should get the start for the Giants. Glennon is a stiff, but he has some talented skill-position weapons and the Bears defense has not been good for a while now giving up an average of 27.6 points in their last nine games. 

His toe may hurt, but Aaron Rodgers is in MVP-form with a 10-to-zero TD-to-interception ratio in his last three games. The Packers are averaging 37.3 points during this span. Davante Adams has been at his masterful best during the last three games, too, with 25 receptions for 340 yards and four TD's. Rodgers and Adams face a Ravens secondary full of injuries.

Tyler Huntley proved himself last week if Lamar Jackson can't play. Huntley was 27-of-38 passing for 270 yards with one TD pass and no interceptions against the Browns after Jackson suffered an ankle injury early in the game.

Green Bay is surrendering 30.6 points in its last three games.

Special teams are another factor. The Ravens have the best special teams in the league, including the top kicker. The Packers are well below average in special teams coverage.