|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-26-23||Sun v. Liberty -9||Top||77-84||Loss||-110||18 h 60 m||Show|
New York picked a bad time to play its worst game of the season. That came this past Sunday in Game 1 of its semifinal playoff series against Connecticut. The Sun whipped the Liberty, 78-63. While it was the Liberty's worst showing of the season, it was the Sun's most consistent game of the season, according to their coach, Stephanie White.
Connecticut is the best defensive team in the WNBA. But New York is the second-highest scoring team in the league and also ranks No. 2 in field goal percentage. The Liberty got the better of the Sun in all four of their regular-season games, winning by an average margin of 15 points.
The Liberty are 35-9 counting the postseason. They haven't lost two straight games all season. The Liberty won their next game following a defeat by an average of 16.3 points.
So I see New York beating the Sun by double-digits.
|09-20-23||Sun -5 v. Lynx||Top||90-75||Win||100||9 h 2 m||Show|
Good job by Minnesota taking this WNBA playoff series to a deciding third game. The Lynx are home, but should be bigger underdogs than this. Connecticut is a much better team than Minnesota.
The Suns showed that in Game 1 winning by 30 points. The Lynx, though, pulled out an 82-75 win this past Sunday to even the series.
Now the Lynx have the Sun's full attention.
Connecticut led the WNBA in defense and had the fourth-highest scoring offense. Alyssa Thomas is a strong MVP candidate. She's like the Oscar Robertson of the WNBA with her ability to record triple-double games.
Minnesota ranked ninth in scoring and was second-to-last on defense.
Trends favor Connecticut, too. The Sun are 4-0 ATS the past four times following a loss and are 15-5-1 the last 21 games when playing on two days rest.
The Lynx are 2-5 ATS the last seven times after covering and are 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing with two days rest.
|09-15-23||Dream v. Wings -6||0-2||Loss||-110||19 h 5 m||Show|
Dallas is at least a tier higher than Atlanta and should cover this mid-range number. The Wings swept Atlanta in the three regular-season meetings winning by an average of 10.6 poins.
The teams just met five days ago in Atlanta to close out the regular season and the Wings smashed the Dream, 94-77.
The Wings have a height advantage that the Dream hasn't been able to overcome.
Atlanta is fortunate to even be in the postseason. The Dream picked up the fifth seed when Indiana defeated Minnesota on the final day of the regular-season.
|09-03-23||Mercury v. Lynx -3.5||Top||73-86||Win||100||19 h 42 m||Show|
Phoenix has packed in its season, failing to make the playoffs. The Mercury have lost seven in a row. They are 1-17 on the road. This is their second-to-last road game of the season.
|09-02-23||Storm +20 v. Aces||77-103||Loss||-110||4 h 40 m||Show|
The Aces aren't blowing out any opponents as they rest up for the playofs. Las Vegas is just 3-4 in its last seven games. The Aces haven't won by more than 13 points during their last eight games.
Aces coach Becky Hammon has had to use her bench far more this deep in the season with Candace Parker out and no long breaks between games. This is the Aces' sixth game in 12 days.
The Storm is one of the three worst teams in the WNBA. But you wouldn't know that from how the Storm has been hanging in lately. Seattle upset the Sparks two days ago in Los Angeles. The Storm are 7-6 in their last 13 games. Jewell Loyd, the league's top scorer, gives the Storm a chance in every game.
|08-31-23||Storm v. Sparks -5.5||72-61||Loss||-110||22 h 31 m||Show|
Holding just a half-game lead on Chicago for the final playoff spot, Los Angeles should have tremendous motivation for this home game against Seattle. It's the Sparks' second-to-last home contest. They finish the regular season with three straight road games.
Seattle has Jewell Loyd, the WNBA's leading scorer, but little else. The Storm also lacks incentive having already been eliminated from playoff contention.
The Storm have lost three in a row, going 0-2-1 ATS in those games.
The Sparks have been a hot point spread team covering 10 of their last 12. They also are 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times hosting Seattle.
|08-29-23||Mercury v. Dream UNDER 160.5||76-94||Loss||-109||6 h 5 m||Show|
Phoenix is averaging 68.6 points in its last five games, all of which have gone Under.
I see another Under here.
The Mercury has a cluster injury problem in the backcourt. Diana Taurasi and Sophie Cunningham, the team's second and third-leading scorers, are each questionable. Taurasi has missed the last two games with a toe injury. Cunningham suffered a jaw injury in Phoenix's last game two days ago. The Mercury are 1-15 on the road. They have already been eliminated from the playoffs. So there's no urgency for Taurasi and Cunningham to play.
Also the Mercury are without Shey Peddy, a guard who was part of their rotation.
Phoenix does have 6-foot-9 inch Brittney Griner back in the lineup. Although Griner is the Mercury's leading scorer, her presence is a plus for the Under because Phoenix has to play at a slow, plodding pace to accommodate her low-post presence.
Atlanta should be in a defensive mood. The Dream have lost three in a row, including blowing a late lead in an 83-80 loss to lowly Indiana this past Sunday. This marks the Dream's third game in five days so I don't see them playing up-tempo.
|08-28-23||Aces v. Liberty -115||85-94||Win||100||7 h 28 m||Show|
A strong case can be made either way that Las Vegas or New York is the best team in the WNBA. No other team in the league comes close to matching these superpowers.
The teams have split their four games. This is the final regular-season matchup between them and the deck is stacked against Las Vegas.
The Aces are a tired team playing for the fourth time in seven days and 11th in 22 days. It's the Aces' fourth consecutive road games. This is a very heavy schedule especially for the WNBA. It's made worse for the Aces because they lack depth and have been going with a short rotation due to starter Candace Parker being out.
Las Vegas hasn't practiced, nor even taken a shootaround during its previous two games in order to save its legs. A blowout loss to Washington as a 10-point favorite two days ago shows just how vulnerable the Aces are right now because of the heavy fatigue factor.
It's the wrong time for the Aces to meet the Liberty, who are peaking winning 18 of their last 21 games.
|08-25-23||Sparks -128 v. Dream||83-78||Win||100||18 h 35 m||Show|
Who's the hottest team in the WNBA? It's Los Angeles if you go by point spreads. The Sparks are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games with five straight outright victories.
The Sparks have gotten healthy and their lineup has stabilized because of it. That's been a key in their winning streak. They also have an excellent coach in Curt Miller.
Just two games ago, the Sparks upset the Aces, 78-72, in Las Vegas. The Dream just lost to the Aces, 112-100, at home this past Tuesday. Atlanta is regressing after showing signs of peaking going 3-7 SU and ATS in its last 10 games.
The Dream aren't expected to have star guard Allisha Gray again. She missed Atlanta's game against the Aces due to an ankle injury. Also out for Atlanta is Nia Coffey, the Dream's third-leading rebounder and fifth-leading scorer.
|08-24-23||Liberty -6 v. Sun||95-90||Loss||-110||8 h 60 m||Show|
Connecticut is the third-best team in the WNBA. Unfortunately for the Sun they are a distant third behind Las Vegas and New York.
The Sun host New York here, but it's not a good spot for them. This marks Connecticut's third game in five days, all at different venues. The Sun have lost three of their past five games. They narrowly escaped short-handed Washington on the road two days ago winning, 68-64.
New York is peaking at the right time as their star players are now more acclimated to each other. The Liberty are 20-4 in their last 24 games, covering six of their past seven games.
The Liberty are battle-tested having played the Aces twice during their last three games with both games being in Las Vegas.
New York should be well-rested and prepared for this challenge having been idle since last Friday.
|08-22-23||Storm v. Sky -175||79-102||Win||100||9 h 16 m||Show|
Chicago can't take a home loss here to the lowly 10-22 Storm. The Sky are 1 1/2 games out of a playoff spot with the season winding down.
The Sky are in stop-the-pain mode after a 79-73 home loss to Connecticut two days ago. Chicago was only 3 of 21 from 3-point range in that game.
The Sky should shoot much better against this much weaker defensive opponent. The Storm have the league's leading scorer, Jewell Loyd, but are the worst-shooting team in the WNBA.
Both teams are playing for the third time in five days. Chicago, however, has been home for the past four days, while this is Seattle's third different venue in five days.
|08-20-23||Storm v. Lynx -5.5||88-74||Loss||-110||8 h 4 m||Show|
The teams just met two days ago in Seattle and Minnesota won, 78-70. The Lynx won despite making just 6 of 21 3-point shots. Now Minnesota is home.
Seattle is one of the three worst teams in the WNBA at 9-22. The Lynx are a playoff team. Minnesota is 11-5-1 ATS when playing on one day's rest.
The Storm is heavily reliant on Jewell Loyd and she's been cold. Loyd has missed 21 of her last 24 shots from 3-point range.
|08-19-23||Sparks +17 v. Aces||78-72||Win||100||3 h 23 m||Show|
The timing is ripe for the Sparks to stay well within this lopsided point spread.
The Aces are in a letdown spot after marquee home games this past Tuesday and Thursday against New York. Las Vegas had a highly-satisfying, 88-75, revenge win against the Liberty two days ago. Now they have to play less than 48 hours later in a day game.
Las Vegas has the best record in the WNBA by four games. A playoff berth has been clinched by the Aces.
Los Angeles is in contention for a playoff spot. The Sparks have gotten healthy and are playing well with a three-game win streak. Their last victory came a week ago when they defeated Atlanta, 85-74.
That may have been the Sparks' best defensive effort. LA comes in motivated, prepared, rested and in excellent form rendering this point spread too high.
|08-17-23||Liberty v. Aces UNDER 176.5||75-88||Win||100||20 h 1 m||Show|
These teams just met two days ago in Las Vegas for the Commissioner's Cup, an honorary game that didn't count in the standings. I thought it would be a loose game between the league's two-highest scoring teams. So I went with the Over.
New York destroyed Las Vegas, 82-63. The game went Under by 33 points.
Live and learn. I'm confidently going Under in the rematch.
The Liberty have held the Aces to an average of 62 points - 32 points below the Aces' league-leading 94 points a game - in two games during the last 11 days.
It's more than just the Aces being cold from the floor and superstar center A'ja Wilson getting bottled up in the paint. The Liberty are exploiting the offensive inefficiency of Aces center Kiah Stokes, who has replaced injured Candace Parker. Stokes is strictly a defensive player. She has no offensive game. That allowed the Liberty to fully concentrate on Las Vegas' four other starters, including double-teams on Wilson.
The Aces' one weakness is lack of depth. The Liberty are perhaps the only team in the league that can exploit that. New York's bench outscored Las Vegas' reserves by 20 points in Tuesday's game.
The Liberty's 95.3 defensive rating during the last seven games is the second-best in the league.
The Aces have the best defensive rating in the WNBA. But Aces coach Becky Hammon wasn't pleased with her team's defense in Tuesday's loss.
Expect the Aces - in double revenge mode and after suffering their first home loss of the season - to come out highly motivated, playing strong defense. There should be a playoff intensity to this game, which translates to tough defense.
|08-15-23||Liberty v. Aces OVER 175.5||Top||82-63||Loss||-110||21 h 35 m||Show|
These are the two highest scoring teams in the league. New York averages 88.5 points. That scoring average goes up to 96 points if you count just the last three games. Las Vegas is No. 1 in the WNBA in scoring at 94 points and also No. 1 in field goal percentage, free throw percentage and 3-point percentage.
If the two teams just hit their scoring average the total easily goes Over.
I'm expecting the final score will go Over. These are the two superpowers of the league. This game will draw extra attention because it's the annual Commissioner's Cup. Players from the winning team earn $30,000 with the MVP getting an extra $5,000. These players don't make NBA-type salaries. That money is a big incentive for them. The pride of being named MVP for the game should spur the three superstars competing - A'ja Wilson, Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu - into big scoring games.
And here's the kicker: The game does not count in the standings. So basically it's an exhibition, which should have an All-Star Game offensive-type flavor to it.
|08-13-23||Mercury v. Storm -120||71-81||Win||100||6 h 6 m||Show|
Both teams rank among the three-worst in the WNBA. Phoenix and Seattle have been playing better, though.
Phoenix has won two in a row. However, those victories were achieved at home. The Mercury are 1-13 on the road. They also are 7-18-1 ATS following a win.
Seattle is in rebuild mode, but gets tremendous home fan support. The Storm are 4-2 in their last six games. They have covered in five of their past seven games.
The Storm pulled out a 68-67 upset home victory in their last game, coming from 16 points down to beat Atlanta this past Thursday. That should give them momentum and confidence.
Seattle should also have confidence against this opponent having just defeated the Mercury in Phoenix eight days ago, 97-91.
|08-12-23||Sun +2.5 v. Wings||81-91||Loss||-105||7 h 33 m||Show|
Connecticut is off a 90-84 road loss to Phoenix this past Tuesday. Only once all season have the Sun dropped two in a row. The Sun are the top defensive team in the WNBA. Dallas ranks 10th defensively in the 12-team league. The Wings are in a slump having lost and failed to cover in four of their last five games. Connecticut is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 road games. The Sun also have covered in five of their last six games versus the Wings.
|08-10-23||Dream -5.5 v. Storm||Top||67-68||Loss||-110||16 h 24 m||Show|
Discount road losses to the Aces and Liberty, the league's two powerhouses, and Atlanta is 10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games.
Seattle is 2-13 at home this season. The Storm have lost their past six home contests. They also are without injured Gabby Williams. This is a huge loss. She could be the Storm's second or third-best all-around player. I don't believe this line has fully accounted for her absence here.
|08-08-23||Aces v. Wings OVER 177||104-84||Win||100||9 h 33 m||Show|
I see this as a huge bounce back spot for Las Vegas. The Aces were held to a season-low in points by New York in their last game this past Sunday, losing 99-61.
Despite that low scoring output, Las Vegas easily leads the WNBA in scoring at 93.1 points. Dallas is No. 3 in scoring at 86.2 points.
The Wings just surrendered 104 points twice in home losses to Chicago during their last two games. That was 23 points above the Sky's season scoring average.
Both the Aces and Wings like to push pace. So I see an up-tempo matchup here. The Aces have gone Over in 14 of their last 19 road games.
|08-08-23||Aces -8.5 v. Wings||104-84||Win||100||9 h 32 m||Show|
The Aces are the best team in the WNBA. New York is the only team even remotely close to the Aces.
I see this as a kill spot for Las Vegas following its 99-61 embarrassing road loss to the Liberty two days ago.
The 24-3 Aces haven't lost twice in a row all season. They followed up their earlier two losses by victories of 13 and 24 points.
The Aces have won their last five road games by an average of 17.6 points. Dallas is not in good form having just lost consecutive home games to 12-15 Chicago by a combined 23 points.
|08-08-23||Sparks +1.5 v. Fever||Top||87-80||Win||100||8 h 31 m||Show|
Indiana had the worst record in the WNBA last season and the Fever have the worst record in the league this season.
The Fever are 2-14 in their last 16 games. They have failed to cover in their past five games.
The Sparks are a disappointing 10-18. But they've been hit hard by injuries. So at least they have an excuse. Now, though, the Sparks are getting healthy. They just beat the Mystics, 91-83, on the road this past Sunday. That was the Sparks' fifth straight cover.
LA is the better team. It's not too much to ask the Sparks to merely win this game.
|08-06-23||Fever v. Dream -7.5||73-82||Win||100||4 h 24 m||Show|
Indiana is back in a familiar spot in the WNBA - having the worst record.
The Fever are 2-13 in their last 15 games. They just were blown out, 88-72, at home by Connecticut two days ago.
Atlanta isn't as good as Connecticut. But the Dream are playing for playoff seeding and have strong motivation. They are home following bad road losses to Las Vegas and Phoenix. The 20-point loss to the Mercury in their last game this past Thursday was an embarrassment.
The Fever have struggled against the Dream point spread-wise going 3-12-1 ATS during the past 16 meetings.
|08-05-23||Storm v. Mercury -135||97-91||Loss||-135||20 h 16 m||Show|
Seattle has the worst record in the WNBA at 6-20. But two of those victories came against Phoenix.
So the Mercury have double revenge being 0-2 versus the Storm. More important than that, though, is Phoenix is home and has momentum.
Phoenix is 1-13 on the road, but 6-6 at home. The Mercury played maybe their best game of the season this past Thursday at home upsetting Atlanta, 91-71, as 7 1/2-point underdogs. Diana Taurasi scored 42 points to become the first WNBA player to reach 10,000 career points.
The 41-year-old Taurasi is averaging 31.7 points in her last three games. She's been a big inspiration for the Mercury, who get back star center Brittney Griner.
The Storm have been playing better, but are off a deflating home loss to the Wings, 76-65, this past Wednesday. Phoenix has covered its past four home games.
|08-04-23||Sparks v. Mystics -3.5||77-79||Loss||-108||8 h 13 m||Show|
These are the two hardest-hit injury teams in the WNBA. Washington still isn't going to have Elena Delle Donne, Ariel Atkins and Shakira Austin, but I see the Mystics covering this number.
The Mystics are 12-13. Los Angeles is 9-17 having lost 10 of its past 12 games. LA is 2-9 SU, 2-8-1 ATS on the road and this is a difficult away spot. The Sparks hosted the Liberty this past Tuesday. This is their first road contest since July 22 and it's a cross-country trip.
Washington is below .500 for the first time this season. The Mystics have been idle since Sunday when they finished a three-game, five-day road trip going 0-3. They should be rested, prepared and motivated for this matchup.
The Mystics are 8-4 at home. They have covered seven of their last eight home contests.
|08-03-23||Dream v. Mercury +7.5||71-91||Win||100||11 h 33 m||Show|
Phoenix is 6-19, tied for the worst record in the WNBA. Atlanta is a middle-level team. So the point spread may seem right. But I see this being a much closer game than the spread indicates.
Four things give me optimism the Mercury can stay within this number:
No. 1: The game is in Phoenix. The Mercury are dreadful on the road, but a respectable 6-7 at home. The Dream are playing at a different arena for the fourth time in a row.
No. 2: Short revenge. The Dream defeated Phoenix, 78-65, when they hosted them on July 25. The Mercury made only 5-of-24 (21 percent) 3-pointers. Brittney Griner played in that game. She missed 12 of 19 shots from the field and had a point differential of minus 20. Griner won't play today. So that actually could be a positive given how poorly she played against the Dream in the previous meeting.
No. 3: Phoenix has the better defensive number. The Mercury give up a point fewer per game than Atlanta.
No. 4: The Diana Taurasi factor. The 41-year star guard remains a very good player and a fiery force. Taurasi is the league's all-time leading scorer. If she scores more than 18 points today, she'll pass 10,000 career points. Phoenix fans are aware of that and will be rooting hard for her. So the fans and team should very much be motivated.
|08-01-23||Dream +14.5 v. Aces||Top||72-93||Loss||-110||21 h 0 m||Show|
Atlanta hasn't been this large of an underdog all season. The Aces are having a record-breaking season, but this is too many points for them to lay.
The Dream have picked up their game winning nine of their last 12. Like the Aces, they have star power with three All-Stars.
Atlanta won't lack motivation. Las Vegas, on the other hand, is off a highly-satisfying 13-point home revenge win against Dallas this past Sunday. The Aces' next game is a marquee matchup on the road against New York, the other superpower in the WNBA. So this is a sandwich spot for the Aces, who once again will be without injured starter Candace Parker.
The teams last met a month ago in Atlanta. The Dream covered for the fourth time in the last five meetings between the two teams. Las Vegas only was able to win, 92-87.
|07-30-23||Mystics v. Dream -6.5||73-80||Win||100||14 h 15 m||Show|
Atlanta is several tiers below the elite teams of the WNBA, specifically the Aces, Liberty and Sun. But the Dream have been playing their best ball winning eight of their past 11 games. They are a tier ahead of the Mystics, who are having trouble competing given all of their injuries.
Washington is 1-4 in its last five games. The Mystics have failed to cover in their last five road games. They continue to be without superstar Elena Delle Donne, Ariel Atkins and Shakira Austin. Those are three of their top five scorers.
They aren't likely to have Queen Egbo either after she hurt her ankle in Washington's last game. Egbo was a front-court rotation player hoping to provide rebounding and interior defense with Delle Donne and Austin out.
|07-30-23||Lynx v. Sun -11.5||87-83||Loss||-110||12 h 14 m||Show|
It's not the Aces, nor the Liberty, who have the best point spread record in the WNBA. It's the Sun. Connecticut is 14-9-1 (61 percent) ATS. The Sun are tied with the Liberty for the second-best record in the league at 18-6.
The Sun are in a great spot to win big against visiting Minnesota.
The Lynx are in a huge letdown spot after upsetting the Liberty, 88-83, as 13 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Friday. The Lynx also carry a high fatigue rating. This is their third game in five days. Connecticut, by contrast, has been idle since Tuesday.
Minnesota is without its best player, All-Star Napheesa Collier. She leads the Lynx in scoring by a wide margin and in rebounding.
The Sun have covered in six of their last seven games against Minnesota. They are 2-0 versus the Lynx this season winning both times on the road by five and 21 points in the last meeting.
|07-30-23||Lynx v. Sun UNDER 160.5||87-83||Loss||-115||12 h 13 m||Show|
The Lynx are going to have problems scoring against Connecticut, the No. 1 defensive team in the WNBA. Minnesota is without its superstar, Napheesa Collier. She's the fourth-leading scorer in the league at 21.8 points.
Minnesota is in action for the third time in five days. The Lynx are not going to push pace given their fatigue factor. They also play slower on the road. The Under has cashed in five of the Lynx's last seven away contests.
Connecticut won't be taking Minnesota lightly knowing the Lynx just upset the Liberty in New York two days ago despite not having the injured Collier.
|07-28-23||Mystics +9.5 v. Wings||62-90||Loss||-110||7 h 53 m||Show|
The Mystics are down three starters, including their superstar forward, Elena Delle Donne.
But Washington has proven to be spunky and resilient. The Mystics have lost by more than nine points only once in their last 14 games. Washington has covered each of the past four times following a loss.
Dallas also lost in its last game, 88-83 at home to Connecticut. That halted the Wings' five-game win streak. The Wings showed in that loss they are not among the elite teams in the WNBA.
The Wings may have lost their mojo in that defeat. They also have a huge look-ahead game up next playing the Aces in Las Vegas on Sunday.
Washington is the better defensive team, giving up three fewer points per game than the Wings.
|07-27-23||Dream v. Liberty OVER 173.5||Top||84-95||Win||100||17 h 22 m||Show|
Atlanta has gone Under the total in each of its last seven games. But I see this game going Over.
One reason for this is the caliber of competition. Against their last 10 opponents, the Dream have gone against a bottom-six offense nine times.
The last time the Dream met a top-five offense was a dozen games ago. That was against this opponent - the Liberty. New York scored a season-high 110 points in a 30-point road victory against Atlanta. There were a combined 190 points scored in that game.
The Liberty is the second-highest scoring team in the WNBA. They are averaging 92.7 points in their last four games. The Liberty is off a sloppy, narrow home win against a bad Seattle team this past Tuesday. So they should be in a high-scoring, motivated mood.
The Dream is the fourth-highest scoring team in the league. They have three All-Stars who would especially like to shine playing in New York, the media capital. I don't expect the Dream to shy away. They won't slow tempo.
The Liberty have huge star power led by superstars Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu, who is coming off a 2-for-14 shooting performance against Seattle. Expect a much better shooting and scoring game for her. Atlanta ranks ninth in scoring defense.
|07-26-23||Mystics v. Lynx UNDER 161.5||92-97||Loss||-110||10 h 45 m||Show|
The teams met early last month. Minnesota nipped the Mystics, 80-78. It was the fifth straight time in the series that the Under won.
I envision another Under today.
The Mystics continue to play short-handed without two-time WNBA MVP Elena Delle Donne, streak-shooting Ariel Atkins and inside presence Shakira Austin. That's a lot of missing firepower.
Minnesota is averaging 73.5 points in its last five games. The Lynx are facing a Mystics defense that ranks in the top-three.
The pace should be slow.
|07-25-23||Fever v. Sparks -145||78-79||Win||100||19 h 4 m||Show|
Los Angeles is 0-8, 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games. Yet the Sparks are favored against Indiana. What does that tell you?
It tells me that the Sparks are the correct side.
I see the Sparks halting their losing streak here against the Fever, who have a worse overall record than Los Angeles and are 1-9 in their last 10 games.
The Sparks have played six of their past eight games on the road. They've been hard hit by injuries. But now the Sparks have gotten healthier. Both Lexie Brown and Layshia Clarendon are back for Los Angeles. Brown is the team's No. 2 scorer, while Clarendon is second on the team in assists.
The Fever ranks with Seattle as having the worst defense in the WNBA giving up 86.2 points per game. Indiana has failed to cover in four of its last five visits to LA.
|07-22-23||Sparks +7.5 v. Wings||84-98||Loss||-105||18 h 53 m||Show|
On the surface, this looks like an easy winner for host Dallas. The Wings are riding a season-high four-game win streak, while Los Angeles has lost seven in a row.
|07-22-23||Sun v. Dream UNDER 169||86-78||Win||100||3 h 23 m||Show|
The teams just met two days ago in Connecticut and the Sun won, 82-71. That's a combined 153 points.
I'm not expecting a high-scoring game either in this quick rematch. The teams obviously are familiar with each other plus this is a very early start time. Those are both pluses for the Under.
Connecticut is the No. 2 defensive team in the WNBA. The Sun forced 23 Dream turnovers in Thursday's game. The Dream do like to play fast, but the Sun will counter that with a more deliberate style. The Dream has to be worried about committing so many turnovers again.
Natisha Hiedman had the best game of her WNBA career in that win against Atlanta scoring 24 points. She shot 8-of-11 from the floor while making six of seven 3-pointers. This came out of nowhere. Hiedman averages 8.4 points on the season. So I'm certainly not expecting a repeat performance.
|07-21-23||Liberty -8.5 v. Mystics||96-87||Win||100||9 h 7 m||Show|
The Mystics have too many injuries to stay within double-digits of the Liberty.
Out for Washington is Elena Delle Donne, Ariel Atkins, Shakira Austin and Kristi Toliver. Delle Donne is one of the best players in the league. Austin is the Mystics' top inside player and Atkins is a key backcourt scorer.
It's obvious the Mystics are not the same team without these players after they lost at home to the lowly Fever, 82-76, this past Wednesday.
New York is the second-highest scoring team in the league averaging 87.8 points. The Mystics are giving up an average of 88.3 points during their last eight games.
The Liberty are in bounce-back mode after a home upset loss to the Wings two days ago. That snapped the Liberty's four-game win streak. New York has not lost consecutive games this season. The Liberty are 4-0 ATS following a defeat. The Mystics are 1-6 ATS the past seven times facing an above .500 opponent.
|07-20-23||Sparks v. Lynx -135||Top||70-73||Win||100||22 h 49 m||Show|
The Sparks and Lynx have met three times already this season. Minnesota has won each time. The victories have been by five, five and six points.
So why should this result be any different?
It shouldn't be.
The Sparks and Mystics are the two most banged-up teams in the WNBA. LA has lost and failed to cover in each of its last six games. Minnesota is 4-0 ATS the past four times playing LA.
The Sparks haven't been able to slow down the Lynx's star inside player, Napheesa Collier. She's averaging 25 points against the Sparks this season.
The scheduling spot also sets up well for Minnesota. This is the Lynx's second game following All-Star break. They started slow against Atlanta on the road this past Wednesday. But Minnesota played a lot better in the second half. The Lynx cut a 22-point Atlanta lead to one point in the fourth quarter before losing. The Lynx are 6-2 ATS following a loss.
The Lynx shouldn't have any rust. No so with the Sparks. They last played eight days ago.
|07-19-23||Fever v. Mystics -135||82-76||Loss||-135||11 h 58 m||Show|
The Mystics are a middle-tier WNBA team. The Fever are bottom-tier. The point spread is low, though, because the Mystics are extremely banged-up.
The key question is can the Mystics still beat Indiana at home despite missing their best player, forward Elena Delle Donne, along with guard Ariel Atkins and center Shakira Austin?
I say yes. The tradeoff on not having these three players is this low number. It's low enough where I can get involved on the money line just asking Washington to win.
The Fever were the worst team in the league last year. They showed early improvement going 5-7, but have not won since losing their last eight games. Indiana has injuries, too. Its second-leading scorer, NaLyssa Smith, is out as his Lexie Hull, which thins their guard rotation.
The Mystics have their top assists player in guard Natasha Cloud. She's more valuable than Atkins, a streaky shooter. Washington also upgraded its frontcourt recently acquiring promising Queen Egbo.
Washington is one of the better-coached teams in the league. The 11-8 Mystics have covered 11 of the last 14 times they've played on three or more days rest.
|07-18-23||Lynx v. Dream -5.5||Top||73-82||Win||100||19 h 27 m||Show|
The Dream are playing their best ball, riding a six-game win streak. They are home and will have three of the four best players on the court in All-Stars Rhyne Howard, Cheyenne Parker and Allisha Gray. Those three are averaging a combined 51 points per game.
Minnesota can't stop strong offenses. The Lynx's last two games were against the Wings and Aces. They lost those games by an average of 32 points giving up an average of 110 points in those defeats.
Atlanta ranks No. 3 offensively averaging 86.6 points. The Dream are averaging 91.8 points in their last six games.
The Lynx have multiple injuries. They will be without their leading rebounder, Jessica Shepard, along with missing guards Aerial Powers and Rachel Banham.
|07-12-23||Storm v. Dream -8||Top||75-85||Win||100||9 h 44 m||Show|
Seattle is the coldest team in the WNBA having lost eight of its last nine, including six in a row. The Storm, though, gave it an excellent comeback effort in their last game coming from 25 points down in the third quarter to lose to the Mystics in Washington, 93-86.
Unfortunately for the Storm that road game was last night. So the Storm will be playing without rest and are in action for the fourth time in seven days. That's a brutal stretch for any basketball team, especially an WNBA one, whose players have to fly commercial instead of charter.
The Storm now visit a rested Atlanta team that has been idle since Sunday. The Dream are playing their best ball winning five in a row, the last four by double-digits.
Led by Rhye Howard, Allisha Gray and Cheyene Parker - all All-Stars - the Dream is the No. 3 scoring team in the league. Seattle is the worst defensive team in the league.
The Storm heavily rely on Jewell Lloyd to do their scoring. Lloyd, though, logged more than 35 minutes last night. She is playing on a tender ankle, too.
Atlanta is the far superior team right now and the situation is another huge minus for the Storm.
|07-11-23||Mercury +17.5 v. Aces||72-98||Loss||-110||19 h 1 m||Show|
The Phoenix Mercury have been the biggest disappointment in the WNBA. But the Mercury also have talent and have played more competitively the past six games after a coaching change from Vanessa Nygaard to Nikki Blue.
The Mercury are 3-3 ATS in their last six games. Three games ago they nearly upset New York - the second-best team in the WNBA next to Las Vegas - losing by four points as a 15-point ' road dog. Phoenix is coming off a 78-72 victory against Los Angeles this past Sunday.
The Mercury are better than what they were when the Aces buried them, 99-79, in Phoenix last month shortly before Nygaard was fired.
Phoenix doesn't have Las Vegas' star power. But the Mercury do have a top-five front-court player in Brittney Griner and 41-year-old guard Diana Taurasi still remains feisty and above average.
The Mercury should go all-out since they won't play again for another week.
That's not the case for the Aces. Their situation is much different.
The Aces were fired-up after getting upset by Dallas this past Friday. They took their frustrations out on Minnesota this past Sunday winning, 113-89.
This marks Las Vegas' fourth game in seven days. The Aces play the Sparks in Los Angeles on Wednesday. This is a rivalry matchup. So it's doubtful if Aces coach Becky Hammon plays her starters big minutes if her team has a comfortable lead.
I believe the Mercury will keep this game close. But even if things start to get out of hand, the backdoor should stay open given the Aces' scheduling situation.
|07-09-23||Aces v. Lynx OVER 171.5||113-89||Win||100||9 h 41 m||Show|
The Aces are the No. 1 scoring team in the WNBA averaging 92.6 points. They also are the top field goal percentage shooting team.
Minnesota has picked up its scoring lately. The Lynx have scored at least 86 points in four of their last five games. They are averaging 88.4 points in regulation during their last five games.
The Aces are motivated to pour on the points after suffering just their second loss of the season falling to Dallas two days ago.
|07-09-23||Sparks v. Mercury -116||72-78||Win||100||8 h 42 m||Show|
It's not too much to ask the Mercury to beat the Sparks at home. Phoenix is playing better since a coaching change from Vanessa Nygaard to Nikki Blue. Phoenix catches the Sparks dealing with multiple key injuries. The Sparks will be minus four of their eight best rotation players. Out are Lexie Brown - the Sparks' No. 2 scorer - Nina Clouden, Chiney Ogwumike and Karlie Samuelson. The Sparks have been the hardest hit by injuries of any WNBA team. It's taken a toll as LA is 0-4 SU and ATS in its last four games. The Mercury should dominate inside with Brittney Griner and a still highly-effective 41-year-old guard Diana Taurasi. She returns after sitting out Phoenix's last game for rest.
|07-09-23||Mystics v. Sun -175||84-92||Win||100||5 h 43 m||Show|
I'm expecting Elena Delle Donne to return to the Mystics' lineup today. She had been out with an ankle injury. But Washington still is very much short-handed without injured Shakira Austin and Natasha Cloud not expected to play.
Connecticut is well-rested. This is just the Sun's second game since the start of the month.
The teams already have met twice and Connecticut won both games, 80-74 on the road and 88-81 at home.
|07-08-23||Storm v. Liberty UNDER 167.5||76-80||Win||100||11 h 53 m||Show|
The teams just met six days ago and there were only 147 points scored in New York's 81-66 road win.
I like the Under to get the money again.
Seattle is averaging 69.5 points in its last two games. The Storm not only are the worst-shooting team in the league, but they have committed 57 turnovers in their last three games. New York has a top-five defense.
Making it rough on the Storm is the early start, which is a morning game for them going by West Coast time.
As evidenced by the point spread, this has the makings of a blowout victory for the Liberty. New York doesn't have a deep scoring bench. So the Liberty's scoring could go down during the final period.
|07-07-23||Aces v. Wings +10.5||78-80||Win||100||18 h 52 m||Show|
I'm not looking to fade the Aces very often. They clearly are the best team in the WNBA right now.
But this is the exception. The Aces are overpriced here. It wouldn't shock me if Dallas pulled the outright upset even being a double-digit home 'dog.
The teams just met this past Wednesday in Las Vegas. The Wings led by nine at halftime and by two points going into the fourth quarter. The Aces remained unbeaten at home winning, 89-82.
Dallas came very close despite Arike Ogunbowale, who ranks fourth in the WNBA in scoring at 21.5 points, missing 15 of 20 shots from the floor. Dallas came close despite Satou Sabally missing the second half due to illness. She's fourth in the league in rebounding. Ogunbowale and Sabally are the Wings' top two scorers.
Las Vegas was without star point guard Kelsey Plum due to illness. She's questionable for this game.
This is Dallas' Game of the Year. The game is sold out in Arlington. The Aces are 2-4 ATS in their last six road games and are 0-5 ATS in their past five games against Dallas.
|06-29-23||Lynx v. Storm UNDER 163.5||Top||99-97||Loss||-110||11 h 5 m||Show|
Seattle is the worst shooting team in the WNBA. Minnesota is the third-worst scoring team in the league.
Yet these teams combined for 197 points in Minnesota's, 104-93, home win against the Storm two days ago.
Now the teams have made the long trip to Seattle for a quick rematch.
Expect far less scoring.
Besides being very familiar with each other - which is a plus for the defense - the teams don't figure to match their hot shooting from Tuesday.
The Lynx made 52.3 percent of their shots from the floor. They were 8-of-20 (40 percent) from 3-point range. Minnesota ranks 10th in field goal percentage at 41.5 percent and 11th out of 12 teams in 3-point accuracy at 29.7 percent. Seattle coach Noelle Quinn ripped her team for lack of defense intensity. So the Storm will be concentrating more on defense.
Seattle shot 46 percent from the field in Tuesday's game. That's well above their league-low 39.8 percent shooting.
Both teams also combined to make 26-of-29 free throws for 89.6 percent. That's well above their normal free throw percentage.
Minnesota has a tendency to slow pace when on the road. The Under has cashed in five of the Lynx's past six road games, including the last four.
|06-28-23||Sparks v. Sky UNDER 157.5||63-80||Win||100||10 h 26 m||Show|
Every so often there is a scheduling quirk in the WNBA. One comes up today in the Los Angeles-Chicago matchup. The start time is 9 a.m. West Coast time.
That's very bad for the Sparks, who are playing for the third time in six days and certainly not used to playing at such an early time.
I can't back Chicago, though, losers of six in a row.
But I will get involved in the Under.
The Under has cashed in seven of Los Angeles' last nine games. The Sparks are the No. 4 defensive team in the WNBA. This is their first road game in two weeks. All of this is positive for a lower-scoring game than the oddsmaker anticipates.
Another huge positive for an Under is how inept the Sky has been offensively.
Chicago is averaging 66.6 points in its past three games, committing 57 turnovers during this three-game span.
The Sky, though, should play with maximum defensive intensity trying to halt their losing skid knowing they probably can't shoot their way out of this slump.
The Under has cashed in seven of the Sky's last 10 home contests.
|06-24-23||Mercury +2.5 v. Storm||74-97||Loss||-110||10 h 27 m||Show|
These are the two worst teams in the WNBA. Phoenix at least has an excuse - injuries. Brittney Griner and Diana Taurasi have both been out.
Griner and Taurasi, still effective at 41, are expected to return to the lineup today.
That puts me on the underdog Mercury.
Seattle is 1-7 at home this season. The Mercury have covered four of the past five in the series.
The Mercury have a scheduling advantage, too. They last played this past Wednesday, while the Storm are in action for the third time in five days.
|06-15-23||Fever v. Sky -150||92-90||Loss||-150||9 h 25 m||Show|
Practice time means a lot in the WNBA. The Sky have that after returning home to Chicago following West Coast losses to the Sparks on Friday and Aces on Sunday.
The Sky are well-coached under James Wade. They have the best point spread mark in the WNBA at 7-2-1, including 3-0-1 ATS at home.
I see Wade making the necessary tweaks and adjustments to have his rested Sky ready to beat Indiana. The Fever are much improved this season, but they aren't better than Chicago.
The teams met nine days ago in Chicago and the Sky outscored the Fever by 10 points down the stretch to win by five points in overtime.
The Fever will be playing for the fourth time in seven days. That's rough for an WNBA team. The Fever also could enter this matchup a little too fat and happy after upsetting Washington at home two days ago.
|06-11-23||Sparks -122 v. Lynx||86-91||Loss||-122||8 h 30 m||Show|
Minnesota is the worst team in the WNBA, even worse than the Indiana Fever.
The Sparks are improved this season with a coaching change to Curt Miller, who led Connecticut into the NBA Finals last season.
The Sparks have a deep roster and they have some of their injured players back in Azura Stevens and Jasmine Thomas. That strengthens their rotation.
LA is 4-3 while Minnesota is 1-7. There's already talk the Lynx are tanking so they can get the first draft pick and perhaps then take Caitlin Clark.
|06-06-23||Sparks -143 v. Storm||63-66||Loss||-143||18 h 26 m||Show|
The Sparks are much improved this season with the coaching change to Curt Miller, who led Connecticut to the WNBA Finals last year. Los Angeles is 3-2. The only team to defeat the Sparks is the unbeaten Aces, who are the best team in the WNBA.
Seattle is in rebuild mode. The Storm are 0-4. They are practically a one-woman team with Jewell Loyd. She is averaging 28 points. No other Seattle player is averaging more than 12 points.
The Storm rank 11th in field goal percentage and are the worst defensive team in the league. They rank last in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.
|06-03-23||Storm +6 v. Sparks||85-92||Loss||-110||12 h 57 m||Show|
Seattle is in rebuild mode. However, the Storm have covered two of their three games. They are well-coached and retained two good players, Jewell Loyd and Ezi Magbegor.
The spot sets up well for Seattle here. The Storm have been idle since Tuesday. They have been in Los Angeles before the Sparks.
That's because the Sparks were in Phoenix last night where they upset the Mercury in overtime. That game took a huge effort from the Sparks, who are dealing with multiple injuries and in transition themselves with a new coach.
|06-02-23||Sparks v. Mercury -135||99-93||Loss||-135||10 h 57 m||Show|
Early revenge spot here for Phoenix. The Mercury were buried by the Sparks, 94-71, on the road in their opening game on May 19. It was Brittney Griner's first game back after being detained in Russia.
Griner has played in three games now and is regaining her considerable skills as one of the league's elite players. Diana Taurasi still is good, too. She scored 23 points helping the Mercury go 1-2 on the season with a 90-81 win against Minnesota in Phoenix's last game. That was on May 25 so the Mercury should be well rested and prepared having had ample practice time.
The Sparks may have received some home cooking in their win against the Mercury in Los Angeles. The Sparks made an astounding 27 of 29 free throws in that game for 93 percent. Phoenix, despite having Griner in the middle, shot nine fewer free throws.
The Sparks are dealing with multiple injuries and are in transition under new coach Curt Miller.
|06-01-23||Sun v. Lynx UNDER 163||89-84||Loss||-118||19 h 44 m||Show|
Minnesota has the worst record in the WNBA at 0-5. The Lynx are desperate for a victory. But to achieve that, they'll have to play much better defense than they have during their last three games when they surrendered 90 or more points.
I can see the Lynx doing that against the revamped Sun, who are second-from-the-bottom in both field goal percentage and free throw percentage. Minnesota has played Las Vegas and Dallas, the two top scoring teams, during two of its last three games. Now the Lynx are stepping down in offensive class.
Minnesota is not a fast tempo team. The Lynx's Cheryl Reeve is one of the better coaches in the league and she is stressing defense in this game.
The Suns might be the third-best team in the WNBA behind Las Vegas and New York because of their defense. Connecticut ranks third in fewest points allowed per game and is No. 1 in 3-point defense. The Sun have gone Under in eight of their last nine (89 percent) road games.
|05-30-23||Sky +2.5 v. Dream||Top||65-83||Loss||-110||9 h 13 m||Show|
Chicago has proven to be underrated this season. The Sky are the only unbeaten spread team left in the WNBA at 4-0 ATS. They are road 'dogs to Atlanta. I don't believe the Dream should be favored.
The Dream just lost at home straight-up to Indiana, the worst team in the WNBA, as a seven-point favorite. The Fever had lost 20 straight games dating back to last season.
Chicago is the No. 3 defensive team in the league giving up 73.5 points. Atlanta ranks eighth defensively surrendering 84 points.
Chicago has injuries to rotation players Morgan Bertsch and Rebekah Gardner. However, the Sky have a deep roster and are well coached by James Wade.
|05-28-23||Lynx v. Aces OVER 169.5||73-94||Loss||-110||10 h 49 m||Show|
The Aces are the highest scoring team in the WNBA averaging 97.3 points. They are shooting 51 percent from the floor and have an offensive rating of 113.6 through three games.
The Lynx lack the defense to slow the Aces down. Their defense is hurt by their sloppy ball handling. Minneota is averaging 16 turnovers a game.
Las Vegas played last night at home. The Aces rolled past the Sparks dominating them early. This allowed Vegas coach Becky Hammon to rest her starters. None of the Aces' starters logged more than 26 minutes. So I'm expecting a fresh Aces team, especially this early in the season.
The Lynx play faster on the road. They are coming off a 90-81 road loss to Phoenix this past Thursday. The Over is 39-18 in Minnesota's last 57 away contests.
The Over has cashed four of the past five times Las Vegas has hosted Minnesota.
|05-23-23||Dream v. Lynx UNDER 163.5||83-77||Win||100||18 h 60 m||Show|
Both of these teams are better defensively than on offense.
Minnesota struggled against Chicago in its opener, losing 77-66. The Lynx committed 20 turnovers and scored only three points in the second quarter.
Atlanta could be a better defensive team than Chicago.
The Lynx will want to slow things down against the Dream.
|05-19-23||Mercury v. Sparks -135||71-94||Win||100||13 h 42 m||Show|
The teams just met last Friday in a preseason game. The Sparks buried the Mercury, 90-71.
I see LA winning again. The Sparks upgraded their roster. Most importantly, they hired Curt Miller to be their head coach. The Sparks had the worst coaching in the league last season with Derek Fisher and interim coach Fred Williams after Fisher was fired.
Now the Sparks have an elite coach in Miller, who coached Connecticut to great success leading the Sun to two championship series appearances during the last four years.
The spread is short here because Brittney Griner is back for Phoenix. Griner, though, is going to be extremely rusty. The Sparks also have a tall frontline to combat her.
|05-19-23||Sky v. Lynx UNDER 163.5||77-66||Win||100||10 h 43 m||Show|
I don't see a big scoring game here. Both teams are in rebuild mode. The Sky lost four starters, including stars Candace Parker and Courtney Vandersloot.
The Lynx no longer have their best player, Sylvia Fowles. So they are beginning a new era. Minnesota coach Cheryl Reeve usually favors a slower tempo game.
The teams just met six days ago at neutral site, Toronto, for their final preseason games. The Sky won, 82-74, for a combined total of 156 points. So the teams are already familiar with each other.
|09-15-22||Aces v. Sun OVER 159.5||76-105||Win||100||10 h 20 m||Show|
The up-tempo pace was good in Game 2 of this WNBA championship series this past Tuesday. Kelsey Plum broke out of her shooting slump. Yet the total still went Under because the Sun uncharacteristically shot 42 percent from the floor, made only 3 of 14 3-point shots and hit just 67 percent of their free throws in losing, 85-71. The officials let a lot of rough play go without calling fouls. That didn't help the Under either. The result of this is the oddsmaker has set the lowest total of the series for this Game 3. Early activity in the marketplace has knocked the total down even more. The Aces, the highest-scoring team in the WNBA at 90.4 points per game, are going to get their points. I see the Sun getting back to normal with their scoring returning home having played the first two games in Las Vegas. Connecticut averages 85.8 points, third-best in the league, ranked No. 2 in field goal percentage at 46.2 and rated No. 3 in 3-point percentage at 35.4. The Sun also shoot 78.9 percent from the free throw line. Las Vegas is well-coached by Becky Hammon. But the Aces are not a strong defensive club. They lack Connecticut's height and don't have much depth. They win with offense. This is do-or-die for the Sun because the format is best-of-five and they are down 2-0. So there could be a lot of fouling at the end by the Sun if they are trailing.
|09-13-22||Sun v. Aces OVER 163.5||Top||71-85||Loss||-110||11 h 4 m||Show|
What are the ramifications from a totals standpoint following the Aces' 67-64 Game 1 victory against the Sun in the WNBA Finals?
We have the lowest total on an Aces game all season. All three regular season matchups between these teams finished with a total above this number. The Sun and Aces averaged 181.3 points during their three regular season matchups.
So was the meager 131 combined points in Saturday's game an outlier, or indicative of the kind of low-scoring game we will get today?
Both teams shot poorly from the floor. The Sun were held to 37.8 percent from the floor, while the Aces made fewer than 40 percent of their field goals.
I see a more loose game today. The Aces were the No. 1 scoring team in the WNBA averaging 90.4 points. However, they also gave up the fourth-most points in the 12-team league. The Sun can take advantage of that with their height advantage. Connecticut was the No. 3 scoring team averaging 85.8 points. The Sun, though, were below average in defensive field goal percentage.
Both teams are due to shoot better, especially Aces All-Star guard Kelsey Plum, who missed eight of nine shots from the floor in Game 1. Plum was cold in the Aces' semifinal series against the Storm, too. But the shots and looks were there for her. She's overdue for a big performance.
|09-11-22||Sun v. Aces -5.5||64-67||Loss||-115||14 h 53 m||Show|
The Aces have the talent, best player on the court in A'ja Wilson, best guard in Kelsey Plum and a tremendous coach, WNBA Coach of the Year Becky Hammon. Oh, yes, the Aces are in a great situational spot here in this first game of the WNBA Finals against the Suns.
Given all of these factors, I see Las Vegas covering this spread.
The Aces last played Tuesday. They've had four full days to rest and prepare for Connecticut having already been on the West Coast. The Sun had to go the full five games in their semifinal series against the Sky. They upset the Sky in Chicago this past Thursday. This marks Connecticut's fourth game in seven days. The Sun are coming in from the East Coast and this is an early start time especially for them.
Las Vegas won two of the three regular season meetings between the two teams. The Sun have the deeper bench. But that isn't going to matter in this opening game. The Aces have the superior starting lineup and Hammon is going to ride that. I don't see the Sun slowing down the Aces' offense, which was the best in the league.
|09-08-22||Sun +4.5 v. Sky||72-63||Win||100||8 h 3 m||Show|
The Sun just didn't beat the Sky this past Tuesday at home to tie this semifinal series at 2-2, they buried Chicago, 104-80. That sets up this deciding Game 5 in Chicago.
Connecticut has the confidence and momentum to upset the defending champion Sky in Chicago. Getting this many points is a nice bonus.
The Sun are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games. Chicago is 0-5 ATS the past five times when playing on one day rest.
The taller Sun frontline dominated the Sky in Tuesday's game with 66 points in the paint. Candace Parker is forced to do too much and fatigue is wearing her down. The Sky's backcourt also hasn't been playing well, turning the ball over too many times.
|09-06-22||Aces v. Storm +1||Top||97-92||Loss||-110||19 h 3 m||Show|
It may have been the best game of the entire WNBA season when Las Vegas beat Seattle on the road two days ago in overtime, 110-98. The Aces forced overtime by scoring at the buzzer. The Storm blew a 4-point lead with 11 seconds left. Seattle led the WNBA in free throw percentage and 3-point shooting. But the Storm's Tina Charles missed a pair of free throws near the end that would have likely sealed the victory in regulation for Seattle. The Storm also was outshot from 3-point range by Las Vegas in Sunday's loss.
The Aces can clinch the semifinal series with a victory today leading the best-of-five series 2-1. Seattle won the first game of the series. The Aces have won the last two.
But I deeply envision the Storm forcing a Game 5 by winning this home game.
Why? Let me count the reasons:
I don't see the Storm losing in Sue Bird's final career game at home.
I can't see A'Ja Wilson and Chelsea Gray playing any better than they did this past Sunday. They are both excellent players. Wilson might be the best player in the league. But they were both on their ''A'' game. They can only hope to match those performances, which is going to be extremely difficult.
I don't envision Seattle losing for the third time in a row. The only time the Storm lost three in a row was during their second, third and fourth games of the season back in early-to-mid May. The Aces are 1-4 ATS the past five times following a victory.
I doubt the Aces will shoot better than the Storm from beyond the arc again. Seattle was the No. 1 3-point shooting team in the league. The Aces ranked 10th of 12 teams in 3-point defense. Yet Las Vegas made 52 percent of its 28 3-point shots Sunday, while the Storm hit 48 percent of their 27 3-point shots.
|09-04-22||Aces v. Storm OVER 166.5||110-98||Win||100||11 h 15 m||Show|
This is Game 3 of this semifinal series. The first two games easily went Under the total with 149 and 151 points being scored. The result is we have the lowest total of the series for this game.
There are several factors why these two teams should play a much higher scoring game today.
The Aces led the WNBA in scoring at 90.4 points per game. They should get back two-time All-Star forward Darica Hamby, who has yet to play in the series because of a knee injury. She's averaging 9.3 points. That's not a lot of points, but it's an upgrade on the Aces' weak scoring bench.
Las Vegas evened the series by winning Game 2 this past Wednesday. A key to that victory was going to a small-ball lineup using three guards. This gives the Aces more speed and firepower, but leaves 5-foot-7 Chelsea Gray to cover 6-4 Tina Charles, who led the WNBA in scoring last year. The Storm was caught off-guard by this Game 2 development. They'll be ready this time around.
Seattle led the WNBA in free throw percentage and 3-point shooting while averaging 82.5 points a game during the regular season. The Storm get back an important player, too. Gabby Williams is expected to play after missing the first two games of the series because of a concussion. She's the Storm's No. 3 scorer at 13 points a game.
The teams should have plenty of energy having been idle since Wednesday.
|08-31-22||Sun v. Sky -4.5||Top||77-85||Win||100||19 h 49 m||Show|
The defending WNBA champion Sky understand how crucial winning Game 2 of this semifinal series against the Sun is after getting upset at home by Connecticut in Game 1. Teams leading the best-of-five playoff series are 15-0 in WNBA history. In other words, no team has ever come back from a 2-0 deficit. The Sky also realizes that Games 3 and 4 are in Connecticut.
Chicago also was upset in its playoff opener at home last series losing to New York, 98-91. The Sky came back to smash the Liberty by 38 points in Game 2 at home.
The Sun are tough inside. They defeated the Wings in their previous playoff series despite making only 13 of 46 3-pointers. Connecticut was able to hurt Dallas inside. The Sky hold a backcourt edge and they have the bigs with Candace Parker and Emma Meesseman to combat Jonquel Jones, DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas.
|08-28-22||Sun +4 v. Sky||68-63||Win||100||9 h 53 m||Show|
The Sun have covered in their last seven road games. They are a blistering 13-3 (81%) ATS in their past 16 games. I'm backing the Sun to cover - if not upset - Chicago on the road in this opening WNBA semifinal series.The Sky has lost four of their last seven games. They are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine home games. Chicago opened its previous series with a 98-91 home loss to New York as a 10-point favorite. Connecticut should be less rusty than Chicago having last played this past Wednesday. The Sky clinched their series against the Liberty this past Tuesday. The Sky went 4-0 against Connecticut during the regular season. Yet three of those four games were decided by four points or less with the game tied or the Sun leading in the fourth quarter or overtime. Chicago is the defending WNBA champion. Connecticut, though, has plenty of postseason experience having reached the semifinals for each of the last four seasons. The Sky eliminated them in the playoffs last year. The Sun have been pointing to this first game and getting revenge for a long time. Now is their chance.
|08-24-22||Sun -4.5 v. Wings||Top||73-58||Win||100||19 h 48 m||Show|
This is the third and deciding game in this playoff series. The Sun are at least one level higher than the Wings. Perhaps they got overconfident, though, after they buried Dallas, 93-68, in Game 1. The Wings came back to upset the Sun, 89-79, this past Sunday. Both of those games were in Connecticut.
That was the Wings' first playoff victory since 2009. Now Dallas is likely to get back Arike Ogunbowale, its leading scorer. The Wings are the home team here.
Things are looking up for the Wings, right?
Perhaps. But I don't see the Wings upsetting the Sun again in this winner-take-all matchup. Connecticut has more talent, deeper bench and big-game playoff experience. Ogunbowale has missed eight of Dallas' last nine games. So she could be rusty. The Wings did fine without her to make the playoffs.
Connecticut is looking to reach the semifinals for the fourth consecutive season. Dallas has one playoff victory in the last 13 years. The Sun had the second-best road record in the league at 12-6. The Wings have a losing home mark. The Sun also have covered their past six away contests and are 5-2 ATS the last seven times they've played in Dallas.
|08-21-22||Wings +12 v. Sun||89-79||Win||100||2 h 33 m||Show|
The Sun is the superior team. No argument there. But the Wings are much better than they showed in the playoff opener when they were embarrassed by the Sun, 93-68. I see the Wings playing much better while giving everything they have with their season on the brink here. Dallas did beat the Sun two of three during the regular season. The Wings have covered seven of their last nine road games and are 6-1 ATS following a loss.
|08-18-22||Mystics v. Storm UNDER 159.5||83-86||Loss||-110||20 h 39 m||Show|
The teams met three times during the regular season. The combined score never exceeded 159 in any of the games. Now we're into the playoffs where defense and intensity goes way up.
The Mystic have held their last 11 opponents to have an average of 74 points a game.
The Storm have held their opponents to fewer than 80 points in 18 of their last 22 games. Seattle may catch a defensive break, too, as Washington's third-leading scorer, Natasha Cloud, injured her knee in Sunday's regular-season finale and isn't likely to be 100 percent.
|08-17-22||Liberty v. Sky -8||Top||98-91||Loss||-105||16 h 24 m||Show|
The defending WNBA champion Chicago Sky host the New York Liberty in this opening playoff game. There's a big class difference between the 26-10 Sky and 16-20 Liberty. The key question is the gap enough for the Sky to cover this number?
I say it is.
The Liberty did well to get into the playoffs. They accomplished the task by winning six of their last eight games. But none of these games was against any of the top five teams in the league. There's a dropoff from the top five teams - Sky, Aces, Sun, Storm and Mystics - to the rest of the league.
Chicago has a huge edge inside. The Sky led the WNBA with an average of 42.1 points in the paint. The Liberty was last in that category, averaging 31.2 points. Candace Parker and Emma Meesseman give the Sky a strong inside presence. Chicago finished No. 1 in the league in field goal percentage. The Sky also have much better depth and bench strength than New York.
The Liberty is highly reliant on star guard Sabrina Ionescu. But she can go hot and cold. New York ranked third-from-the-bottom in scoring. The Liberty did well to reach the postseason. But they aren't going to advance out of the first round.
|08-14-22||Dream v. Liberty -150||Top||83-87||Win||100||17 h 5 m||Show|
The Liberty defeated the Dream, 80-70, on the road two days ago. Now the Liberty gets to host the Dream with a playoff berth on the line. A New York victory clinches a playoff spot for the Liberty while eliminating Atlanta.
I see New York accomplishing that. The point spread is low enough to back the Liberty on the money line.
The Liberty have a stronger talent base with stars Sabrina Ionescu and Natasha Howard. New York also has been playing much better than Atlanta. The Liberty are 5-2 in their last seven games. Their starting lineup and depth is improved with the return of Betnijah Laney from a knee injury. She scored a season-high 17 points against the Dream this past Friday.
The Dream are 2-7 SU, 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games. They have lost three in a row, all by seven or more points.
Atlanta has been short-handed due to injuries and leading-scorer Tiffany Hayes leaving the team to play in a tournament in Turkey.
|08-12-22||Wings v. Mercury +1.5||74-86||Win||100||20 h 51 m||Show|
The Mercury is a home underdog to Dallas. A big reason for this is Phoenix will be without its best player, guard Skylar Diggins-Smith, due to personal reasons. But the situation trumps this development. The Mercury are in a four-way tie for the final two playoff spots. This is their second to last game. They close the regular season against the much tougher defending WNBA champion Sky. This game means nothing to Dallas. The Wings have clinched the No. 6 seed in the playoffs. They are locked into that playoff seeding.
So the game means nothing to Dallas. But do the Mercury still have enough talent to beat even a disinterested Wings squad without Diggins-Smith and injured Diana Taurasi? Yes. They have outstanding guards even minus Diggins-Smith with Diamond DeShields, Shey Peddy and Sophie Cunningham, perhaps the most improved player in the league. The Mercury showed that when they defeated the Liberty, another playoff contender, by 10 points at home this past Saturday without Diggins-Smith and Taurasi.
Phoenix is 10-6 at home this season. Dallas is without a key player, too, as its leading scorer, Arike Ogunbowale, is out with a hip injury.
|08-09-22||Dream v. Aces -10.5||Top||90-97||Loss||-110||20 h 47 m||Show|
The Aces got back on track this past Sunday upsetting Seattle on the road, 89-81. Las Vegas coach Becky Hammon made a key adjustment starting center Kiah Stokes. That gave the Aces more size and rebounding.
Las Vegas has covered 10 of the last 14 times it has hosted Atlanta. However, the last time the Dream played in Las Vegas, which was on July 19, they upset the Aces, 92-76.
The Aces are in a good spot to exact revenge. The Dream are playing for the fourth time in six days. They just played in Minnesota two days ago. WNBA teams fly commercial, so six games in four days is an extremely tough grind. Making matters worse for the Dream is they are short-handed. They were only able to use eight players in their 10-point loss to the Lynx this past Sunday.
One of Atlanta's missing players against the Lynx was Tiffany Hayes. She is the Dream's leading scorer. Her status is up in the air due to an ankle injury. Atlanta is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games.
|08-07-22||Sparks v. Mystics -9||Top||79-76||Loss||-110||13 h 43 m||Show|
Out of gas and out of motivation, the Sparks should be no match for Washington. Los Angeles realizes its playoff goal is not going to be met. The Sparks' postseason hopes have realistically been dashed with a six-game losing streak, the latest coming in heart-breaking fashion. That was an 88-86 road loss to Atlanta on Friday where a Sparks' game-tying basketball came just after time expired.
That loss was mentally draining for the Sparks. I don't see them getting right to put forth much of an effort in this mismatch. The Sparks are also physically drained. This is their fourth game in six days, fifth in eight days. The last four all have been away from home LA is 2-6 ATS following a loss. The Sparks have failed to cover in four of their last five visits to Washington D.C.
The Mystics are one of the five best teams in the WNBA. They are at least two levels higher than the Sparks. Washington defeated Las Vegas by 10 points at home this past Tuesday, but then played one of its worst games of the season in a double-digit road loss to the defending champion Sky on Friday. The Mystics rested their superstar, two-time league MVP Elena Delle Donne, in that loss to Chicago. Delle Donne is expected to play against the Sparks.
The Mystics are 6-1 ATS the past seven times versus sub .500 opponents. Unlike the 12-20 Sparks, I see the Mystics being up for this home game. Given their talent and coaching edges that should mean an easy victory.
|08-06-22||Fever +12.5 v. Wings||91-95||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
Indiana has lost 15 in a row. The Fever, though, has kept six of these last 10 losses to 10 or fewer points. Indiana should provide a full effort as it won't play again for the next six days.
But nearly this entire handicap is based on the situation Dallas finds itself in. The Wings defeated the Sky and Aces - two of the three best teams in the league - during the previous four days to upgrade their playoff position.
Now the Wings are dropping way down in class, while playing for the third time in six days.. I see a letdown occurring here. The Wings are average statistically. They play at the second-slowest pace in the league. I don't believe the Wings can cover this large of a number especially given the probable letdown factor.
|08-05-22||Mystics v. Sky -5.5||83-93||Win||100||8 h 11 m||Show|
I want the Sky, the best team in the WNBA, going for me after they were upset by the Wings in their last game this past Tuesday.
The Mystics, on the other hand, are coming off a huge home victory against the Aces, the second-best team in the WNBA.
The prideful defending champion Sky were extremely sloppy against Dallas. I'm expecting them to clean up their act going against one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference. Chicago has covered 20 of the last 27 times versus above .500 opponents.
The Mystics aid they will be resting Elena Delle Donne today. She's a superstar and the Mystics' best player leading them in scoring and rebounding.
|08-03-22||Fever v. Dream UNDER 158.5||81-91||Loss||-115||8 h 31 m||Show|
These are the two-lowest scoring teams in the WNBA. Indiana is playing the string out saddled with a 14-game losing streak. The Fever won't have Kelsey Mitchell, their lone offensive threat. She's out for the season with a foot injury. Mitchell was averaging 18.4 points. The Fever's next highest scorer averages 13.6 points. Indiana only has two players averaging in double figures now with Mitchell out.
The Fever have failed to reach 80 points in six of their last seven games. Atlanta is a respectable middle-of-the-road defensive team. The Under has cashed nine of the last 11 times Indiana has played on the road.
The Dream has failed to reach 80 points in six of their last nine games. The Under has cashed in 16 of their last 23 home games.
The teams last met on June 5 in Atlanta. There were only 141 points scored in that game.
|08-02-22||Sparks v. Liberty OVER 163.5||73-102||Win||100||7 h 58 m||Show|
The Sparks are smaller and playing faster now that they no longer have Liz Cambage, their big center who slowed their attack down. The Liberty is giving up 83.8 points per game, which ranks eighth out of 12 teams.
New York is averaging 84.3 points in its last three games. The Liberty should exceed that as the Sparks have the second-worst defense in the WNBA.
The Over has cashed four of the last five times the teams have met in New York.
|07-31-22||Mercury v. Liberty +1.5||69-89||Win||100||2 h 15 m||Show|
Phoenix is playing better winning three of its last four games. But all of those games were at home. The Mercury have to make the long cross-country journey to face New York, which desperately needs a victory in hopes of making the playoffs, being two games out from being the last seed. This is a day game, too, which makes it even rougher on Phoenix.
The Mercury haven't played in an Eastern Standard Time Zone game since mid-June. Phoenix is 4-11 on the road this season.
The teams met on July 7 in Phoenix and the Mercury won, 84-81. Home court should translate into a victory this time around for the Liberty.
|07-30-22||Wings v. Dream OVER 163.5||81-68||Loss||-110||16 h 28 m||Show|
I find this total to be short given this matchup. The Wings have allowed at least 83 points in nine of their last 10 games. During this 10-game span, Dallas is giving up an average of 86.4 points a game. The Dream are allowing an average of 86.3 points in their last three games. These matchups were against the Lynx, Storm and Sparks. All three of those opponents are below average scoring teams. The Over has cashed 10 of the last 13 times the teams have met in Atlanta. Note, too, that this line opened pick. So overtime is a more realistic possibility than normal.
|07-29-22||Aces v. Fever +14||93-72||Loss||-110||16 h 30 m||Show|
The Aces are off perhaps their most satisfying victory of the season beating the defending champion Sky, 93-83, in Chicago on Tuesday. At stake was the Commissioner's Cup, which the Aces won for the first time in franchise history, along with establishing who is the team to beat this season in the WNBA.
It was a monster victory for Las Vegas.
So the Aces can be excused if they take Indiana - the worst team in the league - too lightly. The Fever have lost 12 in a row, a young team clearly in rebuild mode.
The key question here is can the Aces still cover this large of a road number even if they play well below their standards in such an obvious letdown spot?
I say no. Las Vegas is 3-8 ATS the last 11 times it has played a below .500 opponent. The teams met eight days ago in Las Vegas and the Aces won that game by less than this point spread, 90-77.
Indiana has covered four of its past seven games. So the Fever still are trying. They have two talented players in Kelsey Mitchell and NaLyssa Smith. The Fever should be rested and ready having not played since last Sunday.
|07-28-22||Lynx +2 v. Dream||Top||92-85||Win||100||6 h 25 m||Show|
This is a crucial game for the Lynx. They trail the Dream by 2 1/2 games for the eighth and final playoff spot in the WNBA. The Lynx have just seven games left. But they have hope if they win here because their next game is against the Sparks on Sunday. The Sparks are 12-15 and going through turmoil after cutting center Liz Cambage. A big key here is Sylvia Fowles is expected to play for Minnesota. She missed the Lynx's last game this past Sunday against Connecticut. She's the Lynx's leading scorer and rebounder. Minnesota has lost three in a row. Two of those defeats, though, came to Connecticut. The other occurred to Washington. Now the Lynx is stepping down in class. The Lynx are 5-1 ATS the last six times they've gone against a below .500 team. Minnesota has covered four of its last five away contests. The Lynx lost to the Sky by three points and to the Aces by one point during their past five road games. Those are the two best teams in the WNBA.
|07-24-22||Wings -6 v. Fever||96-86||Win||100||12 h 14 m||Show|
Dallas is 11-15 and hoping to land a playoff berth. The Wings can't take a loss to this opponent.
Indiana is the worst team in the WNBA at 5-24. The Fever are in free fall. They've lost 11 in a row - all by seven or more points with the averaging losing margin being 14.5 points.
The Wings were competitive in their last two games taking on the defending champion Sky in a home-road series. The Sky have the best record in the league at 21-6. Now the Wings are stepping down in class. They played the Fever a month ago and buried them, 94-68.
I have to believe the Wings are going to win this game. The Fever haven't been competitive. So I'll lay the points.
|07-23-22||Sparks v. Aces UNDER 174||66-84||Win||100||11 h 47 m||Show|
The season stats show the Sparks and Aces each ranking among the bottom three in defense. Lately, though, both teams have exhibited stronger defensive play. This is a rivalry matchup, too. So I'm going Under.
The Sparks have held their last three opponents to an average of 79 points a game. That's six points below their season average.
Aces coach Becky Hammon knows her team has to improve their defense if they're going to win the league title. Las Vegas held Indiana to 77 points in its last game this past Thursday. Even the 77-point figure is misleading because the Aces build up a huge lead. The Fever scored a bunch of points during garbage time.
''I told them I really don't care about offense,'' Hammon said after Thursday's game. ''I just wanted to see them play defense and they did that for the most part.'' The Aces have held their past four foes to an average of 81.5 points, which is four below their season average.
The Sparks have had trouble scoring against the Aces, averaging 73.6 points in three games versus Las Vegas this season. LA never scored more than 76 points during any of the three matchups.
|07-22-22||Storm -6 v. Mercury||78-94||Loss||-110||11 h 5 m||Show|
Phoenix is the second-worst ATS team in the WNBA. The Mercury also rank second-to-last in rebounding and defense. They are a small, guard-oriented team that is without one of their better backcourt players, Diamond DeShields. She remains sidelined with a hip injury.
The Mercury also have been negatively impacted psychologically with the absence of their star center, Brittney Griner, who remains in legal difficulty in Russia.
Both teams need this game. The Storm is one of the elite teams in the league. They are playing for playoff seeding and coming off a 78-74 road loss to the defending champion Sky this past Wednesday. Seattle was outrebounded by 10 boards in that game. The defeat halted a four-game Seattle win streak.
The Storm have covered the past four times following a loss. They also will have a rare rebounding edge against Phoenix. It's a huge game for Tina Charles, who came to Seattle after Phoenix released her. The former All-Star did not have a pleasant stay with the Mercury.
I don't trust the Mercury even though they are one game out of the playoffs. They rarely beat an elite team and fail to close against weaker opponents. Phoenix could be rusty, too, having not played since last Sunday. The Mercury are 0-5 ATS the past five times when playing on three or more days rest.
|07-21-22||Dream v. Sparks -122||78-85||Win||100||15 h 48 m||Show|
These teams have similar records. Atlanta is 12-14. LA is 11-14. The spot and situation, though, greatly favor the home Sparks.
Atlanta is off its best win of the season, upsetting Las Vegas as a double-digit road 'dog this past Tuesday. That puts the Dream in a letdown spot here while they also carry a fatigue rating. This marks Atlanta's fourth game in seven days - all at different venues.
LA is the far fresher team. The Sparks have been at home for their past six games. This is the finale of a seven-game homestand and only their second game in seven days. If the Sparks beat the Dream they finish their homestand with a 4-3 winning record.
The Sparks haven't been able to defeat the top teams in the league. But they have taken care of business against the so-so, lower echelon teams like the Dream beating the Wings, Liberty, Mercury and Fever while losing to the Storm, Mystics and Sky during their last seven games.
|07-20-22||Storm v. Sky UNDER 161.5||Top||74-78||Win||100||10 h 8 m||Show|
Seattle is the top defensive team in the WNBA ranking first in 3-point defense and second in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. The Storm have held their last four opponents to an average of 70.2 points. The Sky could be without double-digit scoring guard Courtney Vandersloot, who is questionable due to a concussion. She missed Chicago's previous game this past Saturday against the Wings in Dallas.
The Sky have limited their past three opponents to an average of 74.6 points. They rank No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage and fourth in scoring defense.
Another key factor to the Under is the early start time, which is 9 a.m. West Coast time for Seattle. The Storm has been on West Coast time for the last two weeks.
The Sky hasn't played since that road win against Dallas, which was five days ago. So they could be rusty.
|07-19-22||Dream +12.5 v. Aces||Top||92-76||Win||100||10 h 2 m||Show|
Las Vegas is back on track going 3-0 following All-Star break. The Aces' three victories all came on the road with two coming against the Liberty in revenge mode and the other occurring this past Sunday against the Sun in a major challenge.
Now the Aces return home to face the lowly Dream. I see a letdown coming from the Aces. So I'll take double-digit points with Atlanta.
The Aces have failed to cover in their last six home games. They are 2-4 SU during these recent home games. Las Vegas often is overpriced. The Aces have failed to cover in nine of their last 12 games overall.
Atlanta has covered the past four times versus Western Conference teams. The Dream have a winning point spread road record.
The Dream defeated the Mercury, 85-75, this past Sunday in Phoenix. That was a huge morale boost for the Dream and showed they have quality reserves as their leading scorer, Rhyne Howard, Nia Coffey and Monique Billings all missed that game due to injuries.
I'm not worried if Coffey and Billings are out. Howard is the Dream's star and she's questionable. It's a nice bonus if she does play, but I'll still take the Dream with this many points regardless of her status.
|07-19-22||Liberty +8 v. Sun||63-82||Loss||-110||11 h 50 m||Show|
Connecticut is right there with Chicago, Las Vegas, Washington and Seattle among the top five teams in the WNBA. There's a dropoff after those teams.
But this is too many points for the Sun to be laying especially since they won't have Jonquel Jones. She leads Connecticut in scoring, rebounding and blocked shots. Jones tested positive for COVID-19.
New York has been very tough on the road going 5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS during its last seven away contests. During this span, the Liberty has posted straight-up victories as double-digit underdogs against the Aces, Sun and Mystics.
The Liberty doesn't lack for talent with Sabrina Ionescu and Natasha Howard among the best players in the league. New York shouldn't lack motivation either after an embarrassing 34-point home loss to the Aces this past Thursday.
While the Liberty was idle for the past four days, the Sun last played two days ago in an emotional home game against the Aces. This is Connecticut's fourth game in seven days and they are short-handed without Jones.
|07-17-22||Lynx v. Mystics -4.5||57-70||Win||100||4 h 7 m||Show|
Minnesota has been playing better. However, this is just a brutal spot for the Lynx. It's their fourth game in six days. Word has it, too, that the Lynx had airline trouble on their way back from Indiana after beating the Fever two days ago. The Mystics had won four of their last five until losing three days ago to the Mercury in Phoenix. The Mystics are rested and ready now. They have the top defense in the league and also the best point spread record at 16-10 ATS.
|07-16-22||Sky -4.5 v. Wings||89-81||Win||100||8 h 4 m||Show|
Both teams are in action for the third time in six days. That's a heavy load in the WNBA. Chicago, though, is the best team in the league. One reason why the defending champion Sky are so good is their deep bench.Chicago is off double-digit victories against the Dream and Sparks aided by its deep roster. The Sky are 8-1 in their last nine games. The 18-6 Sky now draw another below .500 opponent in the Wings. The Sky won't play again for four more days. So they should be focused. Candace Parker certainly should be motivated. She was held scoreless for the first time in her 15-year WNBA career in Chicago's last game.
|07-15-22||Lynx -3 v. Fever||87-77||Win||100||7 h 25 m||Show|
Minnesota is in must-win mode after losing, 92-87, at home to the Wings on Thursday. The Lynx are 2 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot.
The Lynx also have double revenge motivation. They are a lot stronger now with Sylvia Fowles back in the lineup.
Indiana is the worst team in the WNBA with a 5-20 record. Done for the season, the Fever are going with young players in rebuild mode. They have the worst defense in the league.
|07-06-22||Liberty v. Aces UNDER 170||Top||116-107||Loss||-105||11 h 13 m||Show|
The Aces can't wait until All-Star break, which for them comes after this game. The Aces need to regroup going 2-4 in their last six games, including a 102-71 loss in their game this past Sunday on the road against Minnesota.
Las Vegas coach Becky Hammon and her team have been talking about urgency on defense since that loss. New York is the lowest scoring team in the WNBA averaging 77.3. The Liberty have averaged 77.1 points in regulation during their last six games.
The Liberty are highly reliant on the outside shooting of Sabrina Ionescu. She's been cold, though, shooting a combined 11-for-37 (29.7 percent) from the field in New York's last two games. The Liberty rank 10th in 3-point accuracy. Las Vegas is fifth in 3-point defense.
Las Vegas still leads the WNBA in scoring at 89 points per game. However, unlike earlier in the season, opponents aren't getting caught unprepared by first-year Aces coach Hammon's new-look offense. They've worked on slowing down the Aces, who like to play up-tempo since they have a small lineup. Expect the Liberty to slow the pace here. The Under has cashed in 10 of the Liberty's last 13 (77 percent) games against Western Conference teams.
The Aces haven't scored more than 80 points in regulation during four of their last five games. New York ranks No. 2 in the league in defensive field goal percentage.
|07-03-22||Mystics v. Sun -5||Top||72-74||Loss||-110||12 h 22 m||Show|
This is a battle of the second and third-best teams in the Eastern Conference, who are in back of the defending champion Chicago Sky.
Connecticut is 7-2 in its last nine games if you take away two losses the Sun suffered to the Sky, who are tied for the best record in the WNBA with Las Vegas at 15-5.
The Sun have tremendous urgency here in protecting their home court. But the key is Elena Delle Donne is not going to play for Washington. She's a superstar and the Mystics' leading scorer at 15.3 points. She is being rested.
Connecticut hosted Washington on May 28. Delle Donne did not play in that game either. The Sun won, 79-71. Washington is 1-3 the last four times Delle Donne has sat out.
|07-01-22||Fever +13.5 v. Storm||57-73||Loss||-110||9 h 29 m||Show|
Fresh off a huge victory against Las Vegas two days ago, the Storm are in letdown mode hosting last-place Indiana.
Seattle does not have a good track record in these situations: 8-22 ATS versus below .500 opponents, 3-10 ATS following a victory and 0-5 ATS the past five times hosting the Fever.
Indiana should put forth an effort after being ripped by its coach following a blowout road loss to Phoenix two days ago. The Fever is capable of pulling off upsets. They've pulled off two of them in their last six games beating the defending champion Sky and Lynx.
The Fever haven't matched up well against the rejuvenated Mercury losing to them three times in their last six games. But this is a different opponent.
|06-30-22||Dream v. Liberty -4.5||92-81||Loss||-115||7 h 47 m||Show|
The Liberty has stepped up their game going 5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games. New York beat Atlanta, 89-77, on the road in its last game six days ago. So the Liberty will be well rested for this rematch. They don't play again until Sunday so their focus should be there, too. Atlanta has been playing short-handed. The Dream have lost three in a row and carry a fatigue rating having just played two days ago, dropping a 92-74 game on the road to Washington. This is the Dream's third game in five days.
|06-29-22||Aces v. Storm OVER 164.5||Top||78-88||Win||100||10 h 24 m||Show|
This matchup features the WNBA's No. 1 scorer (Breanna Stewart), No. 2 scorer (Kelsey Plum) and No. 6 scorer (A'ja Wilson).
But there's more than those excellent scorers as to why I like this total to go Over. Both rotations are aided in the production department. Las Vegas has back from injury sharpshooter Riquna Williams while the Storm just picked up veteran star Tina Charles after she left the Mercury.
Las Vegas leads the WNBA in scoring. The Aces have scored at least 89 points in nine of their last 13 games.
Seattle ranks No. 2 in the WNBA in 3-point accuracy. The Storm should be offensive-minded after scoring only nine points in the fourth quarter during an 85-77 home loss to the Sparks this past Saturday in their last game. The Storm have been stressing offense during the past three days since they last played. Their energy level should be high.
The Over has cashed in six of the last eight meetings between the two teams.
|06-25-22||Mystics v. Aces -8||Top||87-86||Loss||-110||21 h 16 m||Show|
Four days. That's how long the Aces have had to stew about blowing a WNBA-record 28-point lead to the Sky in a 104-95 home loss to Chicago this past Tuesday.
Elite coach Becky Hammon and her Aces, who own the best record in the WNBA at 13-3, finally get back on the court to host the struggling Mystics Saturday. I'm fully expecting the far more talented and thoroughly embarrassed Aces to bury the Mystics.
Washington is 1-3 in its last four games. The Mystics are 1-4 ATS in their last five road contests. They are in action for the fourth time in seven days. This is their fifth straight different venue.
There's a chance the Mystics rest their superstar player, Elena Delle Donne, like they have been doing. Delle Donne, who leads Washington in scoring at 15.3 points a game, played in the Mystics' previous game. That was an 85-71 loss to the Storm in Seattle. Fatigue might have gotten to the Mystics in that loss since they trailed by just two points in the fourth quarter.
But even if Delle Donne plays, I see this as a blowout victory for the Aces. Washington only is averaging 72.2 points during its last four games. The Aces are the No. 1 scoring team in the league averaging 91.5 points. Las Vegas has covered four of the past five times hosting the Mystics.