The Wings can't do two things: Play defense and win on the road. They are the worst defensive team in the WNBA by far. They've also lost 13 consecutive road games with 11 of those defeats coming by double-digits. 

The Dream is tied with the Sky for the final playoff spot. The Wings are two games behind those teams and likely more concerned with getting a high draft pick given how poorly they play defense.

Dallas ranks last in scoring defense allowing 90.7 points per game and also is last in defensive field goal percentage. The Wings have permitted at least 90 points in seven of their past nine games. This is their first road game since Aug. 22. 

Atlanta gives up 10.2 fewer points per game than Dallas. The Dream ranks last in scoring, but that number is skewed because their leading scorer, Ryhne Howard, missed 10 games. The Dream are at full strength now. 

Washington has the second-worst record in the WNBA at 10-23. However, the Mystics have the best point spread mark at 21-11-1 (66 percent).

The Mystics are playing well winning four of their past five games, including road victories against the Storm, Sky and Wings during this span.

Phoenix is 2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games. Yet the Mercury just clinched a playoff spot by beating Atlanta at home this past Tuesday. This is Phoenix's third game in five days and the team doesn't have a strong bench. It's also a major letdown spot for the Mercury having just fulfilled their goal by earning a postseason berth after going a miserable 9-31 last year.

Yes, the Mercury are better coached this season. But they are not one of the powerhouses of the league. They are 17-17 and their intensity is likely to be down after gaining a playoff spot.

Up until this game, the most Indiana has been favored by is seven points. Now the Fever are laying double-digits and they're doing it on the day they clinched their first playoff spot in eight years.

The Fever clinched a postseason berth because the Sky and Dream were eliminated following losses last night.

Indiana has earned the right to celebrate. So it could be hard for the Fever to have their full concentration and intensity especially being at home.

The Sparks have the worst record in the WNBA at 7-25. They are off an embarrassing blowout home loss to the Dream this past Sunday. But the game before that they upset the Liberty, which owns the best record in the league at 27-6.

So the Sparks are capable. They have covered seven of their last nine road games. They have talent with Dearica Hamby, Rickea Jackson - probably the third-best rookie in the league - and sparkplug veteran Odyssey Sims, who recently signed with them.

The Sparks aren't going to lack motivation off an embarrassing defeat and going against Caitlin Clark.

A late-season matchup between two bad teams headed nowhere. This means a loose, fast tempo, stat-filling game with plenty of points when it's the Mystics against the Wings.

Dallas certainly has been scoring. The Wings are averaging 98.2 points in their last four games. The Wings catch a break here, too, with Washington center Shakira Austin ruled out with an ankle injury.

The Mystics are a below average defensive team. They just surrendered 96 points to Connecticut in their last game this past Saturday.

Washington scored 85 points in that game against the Sun's No. 1 ranked defense that gives up an average of 74.5 points. The Mystics now drop all the way down to face the WNBA's worst defense by far.

The Wings rank last in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. They are allowing an average of 90.7 points per game.

The Aces have 10 games to get things turned around. They are 2-5 in their last seven games. The two-time defending WNBA champions offense has been there, but their defense has regressed. It's a problem Aces coach Becky Hammon is well aware of.

Hammon has been trying different combinations, but her bench is not good. I see the Aces increasing their defensive intensity in their first game back from a three-game road trip. Hammon still needs to find the right mix from her reserves. So the Aces' second-stringers, most of whom are deficient offensively, should see their share of minutes here.

Atlanta is a top-five defensive team, but lacking offensively. The Dream are averaging 75.6 points in their last 11 games. This is their third game in five days - all at different locations. So the Dream could have tired legs, which would hurt their scoring.

Note the Dream won't have Tina Charles today. She's out for personal reasons. Charles is the Dream's third-leading scorer at 14.6 points per game and is their top field goal percentage shooter. There's a huge drop in offense from Charles to reserve Nia Coffey.

The Dream does not want to get into an up-tempo game with the Aces. Instead they will slow the pace down and use Coffey and three reserves to aggressively try to guard A'ja Wilson inside.

Yes, it's a big total. But it's totally justified. Las Vegas is the best scoring team in the WNBA ranking first in points, field goal percentage and free throw percentage. Dallas has the worst defense in the league, but has five players averaging in double figures.

The spot is right for a high-scoring game.

The Aces drop way down in defensive class after facing the Sky and Lynx twice in their last three games. Las Vegas won't play again until Friday so coach Becky Hammon is likely to let her starters play big minutes even if the score gets lopsided.

Point guard Chelsea Gray is playing better and with more confidence after missing the first dozen games with a leg injury. Gray is a flashy player, who loves an up-tempo pace.

The Wings just played in a 223-point game against the Sparks this past Sunday, winning 113-110. The Wings have surrendered at least 93 points in nine of their last 12 games. Dallas has allowed an average of 99.5 points in two games against the Aces this season.

Back to full strength, the Dream are making a playoff push. They are 3-1 coming out of the Olympic break with two of the victories coming against the 18-10 Storm and 22-7 Sun. 

Atlanta has a top-five defense and has been especially sharp defensively in its last three games giving up an average of 71.6 points. That's nine points below its season average. 

The Dream go on the road for four consecutive games following this matchup. So this is a crucial game for them. They are the more rested team as the Fever are playing their second road game in three days. 

I rate Caitlin Clark already as one of the 10 best players in the WNBA. But some of her value is negated by the egregious coaching of Christine Sides, the worst coach in the league. Atlanta doesn't have a superstar like Clark. But the Dream have four excellent players in Allisha Gray, Rhyne Howard, Tina Charles and much underrated Jordin Canada. 

Impressive road victory for the Lynx beating the Aces, 98-87, this past Wednesday.

But I'm not ready to write off the two-time defending WNBA champion Aces. Las Vegas is 2 1/2 games behind Minnesota for first place in the Western Conference. So this is a huge game for the Aces and not just for revenge purposes.

The Lynx shot 59.4 percent from the floor, while making 11 of 19 shots from 3-point range in Wednesday's victory. Courtney Williams had a season-high 22 points. She averages 10.5 points.

I don't see a repeat of that. The prideful Aces are healthy. They still have the best offense in the WNBA leading the league in scoring, field goal percentage and free throw percentage. The Aces just need to tighten their defense. They did that earlier in the season in their first meeting at Minnesota beating the Lynx, 80-66.

That was the Aces' third straight victory at Minnesota. All of the victories have been blowouts.

Having lost star rookie center and stalwart defender, Cameron Brink, for the season with a torn ACL, the Sparks' defense has greatly regressed. 

Los Angeles has surrendered an average of 88.9 points in regulation during its last dozen games. Foes have scored a minimum of 81 points in each of these last 12 games.

Connecticut upgraded its offense trading for Marina Mabrey. The Sun now have six players averaging double-digits in scoring. 

The Sun should enter this matchup highly motivated. They are off a road upset loss to Atlanta and haven't played at home since July 14. The Sun won't play again for another three days so their first-string should log major minutes even in a lopsided game. 

The last time the Sun played bad defensive teams they scored 96 points against the Mercury and 109 points vs. the Wings two days ago. 

The Sparks should do their part to keep this total Over. They recently signed spark plug guard Odyssey Sims, who played nine games for Dallas. Sims averaged 17.2 points in those games for the Wings, shot 53.5 percent from the floor and made 16 of 32 3-point shots. The Wings let her go when several of their players returned from the injured list. It was stupid on the Wings' part. 

Sims can mesh well with the Sparks, who have three other good scorers in Dearica Hamby, Rickea Jackson and Azura Stevens, who is rounding into shape having played seven games for LA after missing the beginning of the season. 

Tuesday Free Play

Wings plus 14 1/2 at Liberty

Two main factors why I like the Wings to cover this large road number: The Liberty are in a letdown spot and Dallas should be much improved down the stretch getting back injured Satou Sabally and Maddy Siegrist. 

New York just swept the Sparks and Aces on the West Coast with its, 79-67, victory against Las Vegas this past Saturday being especially sweet revenge for having lost to the Aces in the WNBA Finals last season. 

The Liberty return to the East Coast fat and happy. It's going to be difficult for them to get motivated to take on the 6-20 Wings. Dallas is a terrible defensive team and not well-coached either. 

But the Wings can score. They are averaging 89 points in their last seven games. Sabally is a superstar forward, who had missed the entire season because of injury until finally playing in Dallas' last game this past Sunday following the month-long Olympic break. 

The Wings also have back from injury their fourth-leading scorer, Siegrist. 

Right now the Wings are better than perceived because of Sabally being back on the court. Given the bad situational spot the Liberty are in, this many points should prove enough for a Dallas cover. 

The Fever have covered nine of their last 13 games and are in a great spot to extend their ATS hot streak to 10-4. Indiana catches Phoenix playing without rest after the Mercury rolled past the Sky in Chicago on Thursday night. The Mercury caught a break when Chicago's Chennedy Carter was scratched hours before tip-off because of illness.

Indiana should be well-rested and ready. Not only did the Mercury play last night, but their three best players - Brittney Griner, Diana Taurasi and Kahleah Cooper - all helped the U.S. win the Olympic Gold medal by beating France this past Sunday in Paris.

The Mercury have a short bench. They played only eight despite beating the Sky by 20 points. All of Phoenix's starters logged more than 29 minutes.

The Fever have matched up well to the Mercury. They are 2-0 vs. Phoenix winning, 88-82, at Phoenix on June 30 and defeating the Mercury, 95-86, at home on July 12.

The Sparks could be tougher than perceived down the home stretch now that they have Azura Stevens in their rotation. Dearica Hamby may be the most underrated player in the league and Rickea Jackson is a good-looking rookie forward, who would be getting far more attention if not for other rookies Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese.

But much of this handicap is a fade on the Liberty.

New York's superstars, Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu, just helped the U.S. win a gold medal in the Paris Olympics this past Sunday. It's hard to imagine Stewart and Ionescu getting nearly as excited about this matchup. They also could be bothered by jet lag.

The Liberty, as a team, might get caught looking ahead of this opponent as their next game is against the two-time defending champion Aces in Las Vegas on Saturday. The Aces beat the Liberty in the Finals last year.

New York has been dreadful as a double-digit favorite covering just once in 12 tries in that role.

Don't be fooled by the Mystics' 6-19 record, which is tied for the worst mark in the WNBA. The Mystics have the best point spread record in the league at 16-8-1 ATS for 67 percent.

The Mystics have accomplished this despite not having their two best players, center Shakira Austin and guard Brittney Sykes. Both are ready to go now following the month-long Olympic break. 

Austin averages 11.7 points and 6.8 rebounds. Sykes is one of the more underrated guards in the league. 

The Lynx entered the break not playing well having lost four of their past seven games. 

Minnesota is a strong defensive team, However, the Lynx are below average offensively. That makes it difficult for them to cover big spreads like this one. They are 1-4 ATS when laying more than seven points. 

There's a player in this Fever-Wings game who is the No. 3 scorer in the WNBA, leads the league in steals per game and is tied for second in averaging the most made 3-pointers per game.

And her name isn't Caitlin Clark. It's Dallas' Arike Ogunbowale.

But it's not because of Ogunbowale that this game is a sellout and being televised nationally by ESPN.

Clark's presence is sure to arouse passion and an all-out effort from the underachieving Wings, who have better talent than their 5-19 record indicates.

Dallas is 2-2 in its last four home games with wins against Atlanta and Minnesota. However, the Wings are off a disappointing home loss to the Sparks in their last game this past Saturday. They have had ample time to rest and prepare for a rare nationally televised sold-out home game.

These are the two-worst defensive teams in the league. Dallas, however, is the better rebounding team with a height advantage on Indiana.

Connecticut is the top defensive team in the WNBA. This is a marquee Eastern Conference matchup between the two teams with the best records in the WNBA.

I get all that. But the total still is too low given all the superstars participating in this matchup, the last WNBA game these teams will play in a month as the league won't resume until mid-August because of the Olympics. I expect these offenses to go out with a bang not a whimper heading into the long pause.

New York is the No. 2 scoring team in the WNBA at 86 points per game. The Liberty also rank No. 1 in field goal percentage. The Liberty is averaging 90.5 points in their last nine home games.

Connecticut hasn't gone up against this high of a scoring offense on the road since June 21 when it played Las Vegas. The Aces scored 85 points on the Sun.

All of the Sun's starters average in double figures. Connecticut just put up 96 points against Phoenix in its last game this past Sunday. Reserve Rachel Banham scored 24 points for the Sun in that game making eight 3-pointers. Banham scoring off the bench is an added bonus for the Sun, which averages 80 points a game.

Even more than the NBA, the WNBA can lend itself to huge situational edges when it comes to betting.

Such as this spot.

Phoenix is playing its third road game in five days. This matchup has an 8:30 a.m. West Coast start time for the Mercury making it more like playing three games in 4 1/2 days. Brittney Griner (hip), 42-year-old Diana Taurasi (leg) and Natasha Cloud (knee) - three of Phoenix's four best players - are all at less than 100 percent.

The Mercury are a .500 team at 12-12. They have star power, but are the third-worst defensive team in the league and second-worst rebounding club despite having the 6-foot-9 Griner.

Washington, devoid of stars, is 6-18. But the Mystics are great at one thing - covering point spreads. They are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games and have the best point spread mark in the league, covering 69 percent of their games.

Given this and the terrible spot for Phoenix, I'm taking the points with Washington.

Minnesota is not going to lack motivation following its worst loss of the season, 91-63, on the road to Seattle this past Friday and facing Caitlin Clark for the first time. The big question is can the Lynx cover this mid-range number knowing they aren't likely to have superstar forward Naphessa Collier for a fourth straight game due to a foot injury?

Yes because of two strong factors - defense and coaching.

The Lynx are 16-7 but they are not an elite team without Collier even though Kayla McBride has stepped up to have an All-Star season. Still, the Lynx are close to two levels better than Indiana.

The difference is defense and coaching, which offsets Clark's superstar talents. Minnesota gives up the second-fewest points per game in the WNBA and also ranks No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.

The Fever, by contrast, is the second-worst defensive team in the WNBA.

Minnesota also has one of the better coaches in the league, Cheryl Reeves. Indiana has the worst coach, Christie Sides.

The Lynx take great pride in their defense. They rank No. 2 in scoring defense and first in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Lynx should play with tremendous defensive intensity back home after giving up 91 points to the Storm in Seattle two days ago during their last game. That was 17 points above their defensive average.

Facing Caitlin Clark for the first time is added incentive for the Lynx to clamp down on the Fever.

Indiana is not a good defensive club. But the Fever aren't likely to see Naphessa Collier, the Lynx's leading scorer. Collier is expected to miss her fourth straight game due to a foot injury. Only one other Minnesota player averages more than 12 points.

The Lynx are averaging just 71.5 points during their last six games.

Care to guess which team has the best point spread record in the WNBA? Hint, it's not the Liberty, Sun or Aces, who have a losing ATS mark.

It's the Washington Mystics, who are tied for the second-worst record in the WNBA at 6-17. Deprived of any star power because of injuries and Elena Delle Donne choosing to sit out the season, the Mystics are constantly undervalued by the oddsmaker and marketplace.

But thanks to covering in 11 of their last 13 games, the Mystics now own the top ATS mark in the league covering 68 percent of the time.

Only once in their last 14 games have the Mystics lost by more than 11 points. Las Vegas is playing its third road game in five days. Washington is well-rested having last played on Wednesday.

I have the utmost respect for the Lynx and their coach, Cheryl Reeve. The overachieving Lynx have the third-best record in the WNBA at 16-6.

But the Lynx aren't good enough to beat Seattle on the road without their superstar, forward Napheesa Collier. She's expected to miss her third straight game because of a foot injury. Collier is arguably one of the five best players in the league.

Minnesota is 2-0 since Collier has been out. Those wins, though, were against the Mystics and Sparks, whose combined record is 11-34. Now the Lynx step way up in class and are on the road.

Seattle has a star-studded lineup that has come together to win 13 of its last 18 games. Take away Collier and the Storm will have four of the five best players on the court in Nneka Ogwumike, Jewell Loyd, Skylar Diggins-Smith and Ezi Magbegor.

These teams just played each other last Wednesday. There were 200 points scored in the Mercury's, 104-96, road win.

So why get involved in the Under, especially when Dallas is involved? The Wings have the worst defense in the WNBA and seven of their last eight games have gone Over.

Certainly a fair question.

Let's start with this being the second-largest total on a Wings game this season. It's also a rare afternoon start for a weekday game. That's a plus for the Under because of the unfamiliar setting.

It's the fourth meeting between the two teams. So they certainly know each other.

Examining the 104-96 Phoenix win from a week ago, you'll find unbelievable hot shooting and 57 free throw attempts. The Mercury made 55 percent of their field goal attempts and were 21-of-23 from the foul line for 91 percent. Phoenix shoots 43 percent from the floor on the season, which ranks eighth. Diana Taurasi scored 16 points in that game.

Taurasi will miss her second straight game because of a lower leg injury. Taurasi's absence could mean more minutes for Sophia Cunningham, who is more of a scrapper than a scorer, and little-used Mikiah Herbert Harrigan, who averages 2.2 points a game.

The Wings hit 49 percent of their field goal attempts in last Wednesday's loss to the Mercury and shot 34 free throws. Dallas shoots 44 percent from the floor on the season.

Arike Ogunbowale is Dallas' best player. She takes the majority of the shots and is shooting a career-worst 36.6 percent from the floor, while averaging 20.6 field goal attempts.

Every team in the WNBA has at least one star except one - the Mystics. Maybe that's why the Mystics don't get much respect from the oddsmaker, or the marketplace.

Once again, that's the case with Washington in this matchup against the Fever and Caitlin Clark.

Indiana hasn't been a favorite of more than 5 1/2 points all season. Washington is 10-2 ATS (83%) in its last 12 games.

The Mystics are 5-5 SU in their last 10 games with four of those defeats occurring against upper tier teams - Lynx, Aces twice and Sun in overtime.

Washington has double revenge motivation having lost to the Fever by two and seven points, respectively. The Mystics trailed the Fever by five points with 12 seconds left in that seven-point loss.

The Fever could be in letdown mode, too, off their biggest win of the season upsetting the Liberty at home in their last game.

Note, too, that the Mystics are the superior defensive team. Washington is giving up 83.1 points a game. The Mystics held the Lynx to only 74 points during their last game. That was eight points below the Lynx's season average.

Indiana ranks second-to-last defensively surrendering 87.3 points a game.

The timing and situation is ripe for a flat performance from both teams. Phoenix won't have spark plug Diana Taurasi and also could be without star center Brittney Griner and starting guard Rebecca Allen. Los Angeles is off its game of the year, upsetting the Aces at home, 98-93, this past Friday night. 

The two teams met at Phoenix on June 28. The Mercury shot 51 percent from the floor and won, 92-78. Taurasi scored 20 points while making 7-of-11 shots from the floor and 5-of-8 3-pointers. Griner made 8-of-12 shots from the field. But now Taurasi has been ruled out with a leg injury. Griner is questionable because of personal reasons and Allen is questionable due to lower back pain. 

The Mercury have a short bench. Some of their reserves are horrible shooters. They won't be able to go into a four-guard attack, which they've done before, minus Taurasi and possibly Allen. 

The Sparks are third-from-the-bottom in scoring in the WNBA averaging 79 points. They have averaged a tick lower during their last nine games, producing an average of 78.7 points in regulation. 

Dearica Hamby is the only Sparks player averaging more than 11 points. The Sparks lack a natural go-to scorer. They eat up a lot of clock by frequently passing the ball in a deliberate style offense.

Well-coached Minnesota gives up the second-fewest points in the WNBA. The Lynx also rank second in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.

But now Lynx coach Cheryl Reeve will have her team really stressing defense with Naphessa Collier not expected to play because of a foot injury. Collier is the Lynx's leading scorer at 20 points per game and one of the five best players in the league.

Collier's absence will mean more minutes for Dorka Juhasz, a rugged forward who is a much better defensive player than scorer.

Minnesota is averaging just 70 points during its past three games. The Lynx have scored 73 or fewer points five of their past six regular season games.

Washington is the third-lowest scoring team in the WNBA. The Mystics are short-handed without their best guard, Brittney Sykes, and top frontcourt player, Shakira Austin.

Dallas has the worst record in the WNBA at 4-16. The Wings, though, are healthier than Atlanta and play better at home.

The Wings are 2-6 at home. However, their last six home contests have been against strong competition - Mercury twice, Lynx (who they upset as double-digit 'dogs), Sun, Storm and Aces. Those teams are a combined 64-32. The Dream are 7-11.

Atlanta has lost three of its past four away games. The Dream rank last in the league in scoring and shooting percentage.

Making it worse for the Dream are the number of injuries they have. Rhyne Howard, their second-leading scorer, is sidelined with an ankle injury. Aerial Powers is out with a calf injury and point guard Jordin Canada, who had just returned after being all out all season, suffered a broken right finger that will keep her out indefinitely. Canada had started the past two games and was coming off her best performance.

Minnesota hasn't dropped two games in a row all season. I don't expect that to change in this matchup with the Lynx hosting Connecticut.

The Lynx are 9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS at home.

Minnesota has been away from home the past three games. The Lynx won't lack motivation after a road loss to New York in their last game. The Liberty out-hustled Minnesota on the boards.

Connecticut opened 13-1. But the Sun haven't been able to maintain that lofty pace, losing three of their last five games. The Sun are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.

The teams met early in the season in Connecticut. The Sun prevailed by one point in overtime.

Look for the result to be different this time around.

Stephen Nover Free WNBA Play 

Mystics-Aces Over 170 

It was the most excruciating quarter of WNBA basketball I have watched all season.

The game was the Las Vegas Aces at Washington Mystics last Saturday. I had the Over, which got steamed up to close at 174 1/2 points. There were 98 points scored in the first half, a pace for 196 points to be scored.

Final score: Aces 88, Mystics 77. That's a total of 165 points - and a loser for the Over.

What happened?

The Mystics scored just 25 points in the second half and only eight points during the fourth quarter. It was beyond painful to watch because the Mystics had open, short shots. Time after time, though, they chose to pass up these shots by attacking the Aces' star center, 6-foot-4 superstar A'ja Wilson. It was stupidity on full display. The Mystics committed turnover after turnover by overpassing.

I have to believe the Mystics learned a lesson from that. Washington ranks No. 2 in the WNBA in 3-point accuracy. The Aces happen to be last in 3-point defense.

But it's the Aces I'm counting on to make this Over work. Las Vegas leads the league in scoring at 87.8 points. The Aces are 5-0 and averaging 90 points since star point guard Chelsea Gray returned from injury. The Mystics are a below average defensive team.

I find line value, too, on this total with the Over/Under below last Saturday's closing total.

Caitlin Clark returns to Vegas on Tuesday. That's motivation enough for the two-time defending champion Aces. The timing is good for the Aces to bury Clark's Fever team like they did in the first meeting. Las Vegas won that home game, 99-80, on May 25.

The Aces accomplished that blowout victory despite not having star point guard Chelsea Gray.

Gray has been back for four games now after missing the first 12 games of the season. No coincidence the Aces have gone 4-0 while playing their most consistent ball of the season. Gray is off her best game, too, making 8-of-9 shots from the floor in the Aces' 88-77 road win against Washington this past Saturday.

Not only does Indiana catch the Aces playing well, but this marks the end of a five-game road trip for the Fever. The Fever upset Phoenix this past Sunday in a nationally televised game. It was the first time they had beaten an above .500 team all year.

The Mercury are a mid-tier WNBA team. They are a level higher than the Fever, playing at home with major incentive.

That incentive is a rare nationally televised (ESPN) game for the Mercury courtesy of the network's fascination with rookie Caitlin Clark.

Hardened 41-year-old veteran Diana Taurasi, the WNBA's all-time leading scorer, isn't going to let Phoenix get embarrassed by hotshot Clark.

Clark is a generational talent. I already find her the best passer and 3-point shooter in the league. But Clark is going against a double whammy - extremely motivated opponents and the egregious coaching of her head coach, Christie Sides. Clark is rarely put into favorable situations because of Sides' ineffective coaching.

Phoenix is much stronger at home going 7-2. This includes victories against Seattle and New York during the last two weeks. The Fever lost by 12 points to the Storm in their last game this past Thursday.

This marks the Fever's fourth consecutive road game. Phoenix has a winning record. The Fever have yet to beat an above .500 team. Phoenix is 3-0 this month against below .500 teams with the average victory margin being 13.3 points.

Indiana is the worst defensive team in the WNBA giving up 87.9 points per game. The Mercury have the scorers to take advantage with Taurasi, Kahleah Cooper and Brittney Griner.

Normally, my first look is to the Under for early-time start games like this one. But the oddsmaker is too low on this total.

Las Vegas is the No. 2 scoring team in the WNBA at 87.7 points. The Aces' offense is going to get even better as star point guard Chelsea Gray shakes off the rust. This is her fourth game back from injury. Washington has a below-average defense.

The Aces' defense has regressed from last season. Las Vegas is eighth in scoring defense and last in 3-point defense. The Mystics are the second-most accurate 3-point shooting team in the WNBA.

Washington's offense and pace is much different than it was three weeks ago. The Mystics are averaging 86.6 points in regulation during their past eight games. They had not broken the 80-point barrier during their first 10 games.

The Mystics have picked up their tempo. The Aces love to run the floor. They rank first in pace this month. So expect an up-tempo game, important for an Over.

The Sparks have lost six in a row and are dealing with key injuries. Their excellent rookie center, Cameron Brink, is out for the season and rotation guard Lexi Brown will miss the game. 

But laying this many points with the Mercury is a bridge too far. Phoenix is 8-8. Only once have the Mercury beaten an opponent by more than 10 points. 

Los Angeles is well-coached by Curt Miller, who twice has been named WNBA Coach of the Year. The Sparks have had nearly a week to rest and prepare for this game. They've played extremely tough opponents in five of their last six games going against the Liberty twice, Sun, Lynx and Storm. All on the road and in a span of 11 days. Those four teams have a combined record of 53-16. 

The Sparks' defense has gone downhill without Brink, an excellent defensive center. But LA still has Dearica Hamby, one of the better all-around players in the league. Rickea Jackson is one of the top rookies. She's been overshadowed by Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese so you don't hear that much about her. Backup center Li Yueru has been drawing more minutes and displaying potential. 

The Mercury are the second-worst shooting team in the league and rank ninth out of 12 teams defensively. The Mercury also will be hosting Clark and the Fever on Sunday in a rare nationally televised game for them. So this is a look-ahead spot for Phoenix, which isn't good enough to cover this number without playing at a high level. 

The wonderful Caitlin Clark continues to soak publicity. But her team, the Fever, is last in the WNBA defensively and has the worst coach in the league in Christie Sides. 

The Fever haven't defeated an above .500 team all season - and they won't until Sides is gone. 

Seattle added more firepower in the offseason. After a slow start, the Storm have gelled going 9-3 in their last 12 games. They just beat Connecticut, 72-61, in their last game this past Sunday. The Sun are tied for the second-best record in the WNBA at 13-3. 

The Storm aren't just one level above the Fever, but two levels. That should be enough to win by double-digits at home. Seattle's past eight victories have all been by eight or more points. The Storm's average victory margin during this span is 15.2 points.

The Storm buried the Fever, 103-88, when they last played. That was in Indiana on May 30.

The Sky and Fever have become a rivalry because of Angel Reese and Caitlin Clark. There certainly is no love lost between these teams.

The teams have met twice this season: The Fever nipped the Sky, 71-70, on June 1 and won 91-83 last Sunday. Both games were in Indiana. Now the Sky get to host the Fever. I see a Chicago victory here.

Indiana has a four-game win streak. Those victories, though, were against the 3-13 Mystics and twice against the below .500 Dream. The other was against Chicago where the Fever shot 56.5 percent from the floor and attempted five more free throws than the Sky. Chicago shot 40.7 percent from the field.

So I'm not that impressed with Indiana's win streak. The Sky got a much-needed confidence boost in their last game, defeating Dallas this past Thursday. The Sky are an improving team with center Kamilla Cardoso fully back from injury and Reese proving a serious challenge to Clark for rookie-of-the-year honors.

This is going to be an intense game. I don't trust the Fever on the road and I certainly don't trust their coach, Christie Sides, who I regard as probably the worst coach in the WNBA.

I hold no doubt that come the playoffs, the two-time defending champion Aces will be right back as a formidable force, probably the team to beat again.

But the Aces are not at that stage yet. Connecticut and New York are the two best teams in the WNBA right now and Connecticut has the best record at 13-1. The Sun are 5-0 on the road.

Las Vegas should not be this high of a favorite against the Sun. The Aces will be fortunate to win the game straight-up. The Aces are 7-6, including 4-4 at home with home losses to the Mercury, Storm, Lynx and Liberty.

The Aces will get rolling when star point guard Chelsea Gray returns to top form. Gray made her season debut this past Wednesday helping spark the Aces to a 94-83 home win against the Storm. That was a revenge spot for the Aces and the team was pumped to finally get Gray back from her foot injury.

Gray played 15:30. She scored only one point while attempting only two shots. Gray averaged 15.2 points last year. Her minutes likely will go up in this game, but there's plenty of rust. So the timing isn't that good for the Aces to draw this elite opponent right now.

Connecticut is the top defensive team in the league, holding opponents to 70.7 points per game. The Aces have yet to get their defense straightened out allowing 83 or more points during their last five games.

Before going into the statistics, there are two things to take immediate notice of in this Dallas-Chicago matchup.

First, an extreme early start - 9 a.m. West Coast time and 11 a.m. local Chicago time. That's a plus for the Under with the teams not used to playing so early on a weekday.

The second takeaway is the multiple injuries on the Wings. Arike Ogunbowale missed Dallas' last game and is questionable for this one with a sore Achilles. Natasha Howard hasn't played since the opening game and she's doubtful here due to a foot injury. Maddy Siegrist is out with a broken finger. Those are the Wings' top three scorers. Ogunbowale is the Wings' go-to player. She's second in the WNBA in scoring at 24.9 points a game.

Now a look at the statistics. The Wings are the worst 3-point shooting team in the league. The Sky are better on defense than they are on offense. They rank ninth out of 12 teams in scoring, ninth in 3-point shooting percentage, 10th in field goal percentage and last in free throw percentage.

The Liberty-Mercury matchup isn't going to lack star power. Maybe that's why the oddsmaker has set the total too high.

New York has superstars Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones. But what's overlooked is the Liberty's defense. They give up the third-fewest points per game and are No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage. New York has held its past eight opponents to an average of 75.7 points a game.

The Mercury have big names, too - Brittney Griner, Diana Taurasi and underrated Kahleah Cooper, their best offensive player. Phoenix, though, has improved its porous defense of a year ago thanks to its first-year head coach Nate Tibbetts, who earned a defensive reputation as an assistant coach in the NBA. Tibbetts was an excellent hire.

Phoenix has held five of its last six foes to 80 points or fewer in regulation. The Mercury gave up 78 points to the Storm in their last game, which was five points below Seattle's fourth-highest ranked scoring average.  

New York point guard Courtney Vandersloot is expected to miss the game due to personal reasons. She's No. 2 on the Liberty in assists. Kayla Thornton is likely to pick up Vandersloot's minutes. Thornton is a defensive-oriented player.

Both the Storm and Mercury are improved teams this season. Seattle, though, has the higher ceiling with long-time Sparks star Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins-Smith joining the Storm this season to go with holdovers Jewell Loyd, the league's top scorer last year, and Ezi Magbegor, one of the better centers in the WNBA.

After a slow start with Diggins-Smith getting the rust off from having sat out last season, the Storm are one of the hottest teams in the league winning eight of their last nine games while going 7-2 ATS. Diggins-Smith is 15-for-29 shooting from the floor in her last two games.

Phoenix is much better than its 9-31 mark of last season. But the Mercury are not in Seattle's class. Phoenix is 3-6 in its last nine games. The Mercury rank fifth offensively, but are third-from-last defensively. They have allowed at least 80 points in 11 of their 13 games.

Pity the poor Mystics. They just got their best all-around player, guard Brittney Sykes, back in their last game against Atlanta. Sparked by Sykes' return, the Mystics beat the Dream, 87-68, for their first win of the season after 12 consecutive losses. However, Sykes suffered a foot injury in the victory and is out indefinitely again after missing eight games.

Shakira Austin is the Mystics' top low-post player and she's out, too, with a hip injury. I don't see the 1-12 Mystics beating the 4-7 Sky minus those two players and in a letdown spot after finally achieving their much-needed first victory of the year. Washington is 0-5 at home.

Chicago is the better team, especially with highly-touted rookie center Kamilla Cardosa back in shape and not limited anymore with a minutes restriction. Cardosa and Angel Reese give the Sky a big front-court edge. Reese is proving to be a tremendous talent in her rookie season with four straight double-doubles. She had a season-high 20 points and 10 rebounds in Chicago's last game, an 83-75 loss to Connecticut, the best team in the WNBA with an 11-1 record. Now the Sky are going from being competitive against the best team to playing the worst team.

The Sky and Mystics met in Washington just eight days ago. The Sky shot just 38 percent from the floor and made only 1-of-14 shots from 3-point range. Yet the Sky still beat the Mystics, 79-71.

The excitement Caitlin Clark brings to Indiana can't offset that the Fever isn't very good. They are poorly coached, have the worst defense in the WNBA and rank third-from-the-bottom in scoring despite having Clark.

I don't see the Fever staying within single digits of Connecticut, which is 9-1.

The Sun aren't going to lack motivation playing the 3-9 Fever at home having suffered their first loss of the season. That came to the Liberty, 82-75, two days ago at home.

Connecticut should have plenty of energy to go with motivation. This only is the Sun's second game in six days. Before losing to the Liberty, the Sun had blowout victories in three of their previous four games defeating Phoenix by 23 points, Atlanta by 19 points and Washington by 17 points.

The Fever were just barely able to get past the 0-12 Mystics in their last game, winning by only two points. Before that, the Fever had lost by a whopping 36 points to the Liberty.

This is the third meeting between the two teams. The Sun buried the Fever by 21 points at home and beat them by four points at Indiana.

The Sun are the No. 1 defensive team in the WNBA. They have far more depth than the Fever. Alyssa Thomas is one of the few players in the league better than Clark.

The Mystics knew they would be in for a long season when their superstar, Elena Delle Donne, decided not to play this season. But it's been worse than even the lowest expectations as Washington is the lone winless team in the WNBA with a 0-10 record.

Washington was competitive in some of its early games this season. However, the Mystics have lost their past three games by an average of 12 points. Morale is low and Washington has been without its best frontcourt player, center Shakira Austin, and top all-around guard, Brittney Sykes. Austin is questionable with a hip injury while Sykes continues to be sidelined by an ankle injury.

The key question here is can the Fever, which is 2-9, beat the Mystics on the road? I am not a fan of Indiana coach Christie Sides. But the Fever has the two best players on the court in Caitlin Clark and center Aliyah Boston. The Fever finally gets a situational break, too, in this matchup.

Indiana has been idle since Sunday. The Fever had the most arduous schedule in the league playing six games in 10 days and four in six days. They still managed to beat the Sparks on the road and Sky at home. But they wore down in their last game in a blowout loss to the Liberty. That was five days ago.

Now the well-rested Fever catch the Mystics playing for the third time in four days and without rest following their 79-71 home loss to the Sky Thursday night.

Washington obviously isn't going to do anything this season. The Fever, though, are in must-win mode. Clark has made them the showcase team in the league. The league wants them to do well. Clark could be in line to expect more calls than she has been getting following extensive social media scrutiny about opponents taking cheap shots against her.

I also like Caitlin Clark to go Over 17 1/2 points on a scoring prop. The Mystics are below average defensively and Clark finally has had ample rest and is stepping down in class.

The Aces miss star player Chelsea Gray, who remains sidelined with a leg injury. Las Vegas still leads the WNBA in points per game, but its scoring has been down the past couple of games. The Aces are averaging 77 points in their last two games, down from their season average of 86.5 points.

Dallas is fifth in the league in scoring. But the Wings' scoring also has dropped the last two games. They are averaging 74 points in their past two games, down from their season average of 82.6 points. This is their first home game since May 18.

Another takeaway from this game is being a Commissioner's Cup matchup. This is an in-season tournament where the final two teams compete for a $500,000 prize hosted on June 25 by the team with the best record in the tournament. So the intensity should be raised.

But most important is the league's regular orange and white ball won't be used during tournament games. Instead a new ball with different colors is being debuted. Players aren't happy about that. This could turn out to be a major plus for the Under because of the unfamiliarity.

Considering the Sun are the WNBA's lone unbeaten team at 8-0 and the Mystics have the worst record in the league at 0-8, this large point speed seems justified on the surface. 

But it's not really. 

Connecticut has padded its record against lower-tier opponents. The Sun have yet to play the Aces or the Liberty, who they will host in their next game. The toughest team the Sun have played is the Lynx. Connecticut won that game in overtime by one point. 

Despite their easy schedule, the Sun haven't dominated in most of their victories with five of their past seven wins coming by seven or fewer points. This includes beating the Wings by two points, Fever by four points and Sky by four points. Connecticut has a losing ATS mark. 

Washington and Connecticut have met this season with the Sun winning, 84-77, failing to cover as an 8-point home favorite.

 
The Mystics are 0-8, but 4-3-1 ATS. They've lost by more than 11 points only once. 

Washington has been idle since Friday, while the Sun enter this matchup fat and happy after a blowout road victory against Atlanta this past Sunday. 

The Sun have averaged just 71 points per game during their last three games. The Mystics are the lowest-scoring team in the league, but still average 74.4 points a game.

There is just one undefeated team in the WNBA - and it's not the two-time defending champion Aces or the Liberty. It's 7-0 Connecticut.

The Sun put that mark on the line against Atlanta. I see Connecticut covering a short road number here. The Dream has played an easy schedule and are in a letdown spot following a home upset of the Aces, 78-74, this past Friday. The Aces had an off-shooting night making only 36 percent of their shots from the floor.

Before knocking off the Aces, the Dream had played just one tough team this season. That was Minnesota and the Dream lost to the Lynx, 92-79, at home.

Connecticut is not a good matchup for Atlanta, especially given the letdown spot. The Sun are the slowest tempo team in the league. Atlanta prefers to run-and-gun. Connecticut won three of the four meetings last season with the winning margin being by an average of 10.3 points.

Chicago is in rebuilding mode. But the Sky have excellent team chemistry and have been playing well going 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS in their last four games with the victories coming on the road against the Liberty and Wings - two teams better than the Sparks.

I rank the Sky above the Sparks. The situation sets up better, too, for Chicago.

Los Angeles is in action for the fourth time in seven days. This is the Sparks' second straight road game. They opened their road swing with an upset victory against Indiana this past Tuesday.

The Sparks rank third-from-the-bottom in scoring and second-to-last in free throw percentage. They have a short bench and are down guard Layshia Clarendon, who remains sidelined with a head injury.

I'm looking for a big performance from the Fever as they return home following three consecutive road games. Indiana has played five tough games out of seven - Liberty twice, Sun twice and Aces once - and now get to step way down in class.

The rebuilding Sparks are the worst team in the Western Conference. Los Angeles is 1-4. Its lone victory was at home against the 0-6 Mystics by two points. If the Mystics aren't the worst team in the WNBA than the Sparks are.

This is only the Sparks' second road game of the season. Their only other away game was back on May 18. It was a short one, just an hour flight to Las Vegas.

Indiana's 1-6 record is deceiving because of the tough schedule it has played. The Fever can expect great support as this is only their third home game and first since May 20. The Fever has played the most games in the league. But they were able to get two full days of rest having last played this past Saturday.

The Fever's lone victory came against the Sparks, 78-73, this past Friday at Los Angeles. A record Sparks crowd of 19,103 turned out for the game.

It's not just Caitlin Clark for the Fever. Indiana center Temi Fagbenle has emerged, giving the Fever another low-post presence and energetic force to go with Aliyah Boston, one of the better inside players in the league. Boston and Fagbenle combined to make 14-of-26 shots from the floor against the Sparks.

Los Angeles is not a deep team relying mostly on a six-player rotation. The Sparks will be without veteran guard Layshia Clarendon, one of those six rotation players. She's out with a head injury.

The Lynx are an early-success story in the WNBA tied for first in the Western Conference with a 3-1 record. They are much-improved from last year's 19-21 team. 

But the schedule-maker didn't do Minnesota any favors with this matchup. 

Not only are the Lynx in a huge letdown spot after upsetting the Liberty, 84-67, as a 6 1/2-point home 'dog on Saturday, but they are in action for the third time in four days and second in two days. It's the third straight different venue, too, for Minnesota. 

The Dream, on the other hand, hasn't played since Tuesday when they defeated the Wings by five points at home. Atlanta is mediocre, but has a bunch of good scorers. The Dream rank fourth in the league in scoring and first in 3-point accuracy. 

Given Atlanta's scoring prowess and the bad situational spot the Lynx are in, I see the Dream covering this number. 

Indiana's Caitlin Clark gets top billing, but the best player on the court in this matchup is Los Angeles' Dearica Hamby. Given heavy playing minutes for the first time in her 10-year WNBA career, Hamby is off to a blazing start averaging 22 points a game - which is tied for sixth-best in the league - and leading the WNBA in rebounding.

Sparked by Hamby's 59 percent shooting percentage, Los Angeles ranks second in the league in field goal percentage and third in 3-point accuracy. The Sparks are going against the worst defense in the league as the Fever surrenders an WNBA-worst 91.6 points a game.

However, the 0-5 Fever's offense has been picking up averaging 82.3 points in their past three games. Rookie Clark and her new teammates are getting more accustomed to playing together. This will be Indiana's league-high sixth game of the season. The Fever scored 83 points on Seattle despite making only 6-of-22 3-point field goal attempts in their last game this past Wednesday. Clark was just 2-of-8 from beyond the arc.

Look for the Fever to shoot a higher percentage as the Sparks are a below average defense. LA ranks second-to-last in 3-point defense, is 10th in defensive field goal percentage and surrenders the fourth-most points per game. This has the makings of a break-out game for Clark.

Phoenix is much improved from its disastrous 9-31 season of a year ago. The Mercury upgraded both their roster and coaching staff. So it wasn't a total shock Phoenix upset defending WNBA champion Las Vegas, 98-88, as 13 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Tuesday night.

Washington, on the other hand, is 0-4 and in for a long season with its superstar, Elena Delle Donne, choosing not to play this season. Brittney Sykes, the Mystics' best all-around guard, is out with an ankle injury.

So why get involved with the Mystics on the road against the Mercury here?

Because there's more than meets the eye.

The Mercury returns to Phoenix fat and happy after holding off the Aces, who railed from 15 points down with 5 1/2 minutes to pull within two points. This is a huge letdown spot for a team that didn't do much winning last year and remains without its top rim protector and rebounder, injured Brittney Griner.

The Mercury made an unbelievable 16 of 33 shots from 3-point range in upsetting the Aces. Highly unlikely they repeat that shooting performance against Washington, which ranks No. 2 in the league in 3-point defense.

The Mystics have yet to win, but they were ahead in the fourth quarter in three of their four games. This includes leading the Liberty by eight points with 9:25 left and the Sun by seven points with 9:20 to play. Those are two of the three best teams in the league. Washington also led Seattle in the fourth quarter and was nip-and-tuck in a 70-68 road loss to Los Angeles this past Tuesday.

The Dream has had this game circled ever since Dallas knocked them out of the playoffs last season, 2-0, with both of the Wings' victories coming at home.

Now Atlanta gets Dallas at home. It's the Dream's first home game of the season and the Wings' first road contest.

The Dream are at full strength. Dallas is not. The Wings are without starting guard Jaelyn Brown (broken nose) and star forward Natasha Howard (broken foot).

The Wings hosted rebuilding Chicago for their first two games. Dallas was favored in each game, but could only manage a split against one of the lower-tier teams in the league.

Atlanta beat the Sparks by 11 in Los Angeles, but lost as a short road favorite to the much-improved Mercury.

The Dream have too much firepower for the Wings, which heavily rely on Arkie Ogunbowale for the bulk of their scoring. Ogunbowale is a prolific scorer, but is only shooting 37.3 percent from the floor.

Atlanta is No. 1 in the WNBA in field goal and 3-point shooting percentage. The Dream rank No. 3 in scoring, averaging 88.5 points per game. Rhyne Howard and Alish Gray give the Dream one of the top scoring backcourt tandems in the league. Veteran Tina Charles still remains highly effective averaging 13.5 points and 8.5 rebounds. Charles could be in line for a big game with Howard out.

It's not often you get a huge early-season situational edge in the WNBA. But the Liberty have one here hosting the Storm.

The Liberty last played on Friday at home. They've had the weekend to rest and hone their early-season performance, which includes two victories by an average of 22.5 points against the Fever and Caitlin Clark.

The Liberty won't play again for three days. So they should have their full focus for this matchup.

The Storm, however, will be playing their third road game in four days. They lost in overtime to Minnesota this past Friday after a gallant comeback forced overtime and then had to rally in the fourth quarter to beat the Mystics on Sunday with four of their starters logging major minutes.

Seattle went 11-29 last year. That was the second-worst mark in the WNBA. The Storm, though, should be much improved this season with the additions of Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike joining Jewell Loyd, who led the league in scoring last season.

But it's going to take time for the Storm to jell, which hasn't happened yet. The Storm did manage to beat the Mystics, one of the worst teams in the league, at Washington on Sunday. Prior to that, though, Seattle lost twice to Minnesota, once at home and in overtime on the road, as favorites in each game.

Now the Storm is stepping way up in class as 3-0 New York could be the best team in the WNBA right now with Las Vegas missing injured Chelsea Gray.

Loyd and Diggins-Smith are a combined 32-of-112 shooting from the floor this season for 28.5 percent. Seattle can't beat even an average team like Minnesota if those two key scorers are cold like that. Diggins-Smith is rusty from having missed last year.

Washington is a defensive-minded team that already is battle-tested against the Sun and Liberty, two teams better than the Storm.

Seattle has upgraded its attack. However, it's taking time for the Storm to jell. Jewell Loyd, the league's leading scorer last year and key to Seattle's offense, is off to a terrible shooting start. She's just 7-of-40 in the Storm's first two games, losses to the Lynx. Skylar Diggins-Smith is off to a slow start, too, shooting just 12-of-35 from the floor.

Washington isn't likely to have point guard Brittney Sykes. She hurt her ankle in Washington's last game two days ago. Sykes is a huge key to the Mystics' attack.

The season isn't even two games old for the Wings and already they have serious injury concerns. All-Star Satou Sabally is out recovering from a shoulder injury. Starting guard Jaelyn Brown is out with a broken nose and now it's been discovered that Natasha Howard will miss three-to-six weeks after breaking her foot in Dallas', 87-79, opening game win against Chicago this past Wednesday.

Howard is arguably one of the 25 best players in the league.

However, I can't get behind the rebuilding Sky in this rematch. But I can get involved with the Under considering the total is much higher than the closing 162 it was for Wednesday's game.

The teams did not shoot well in that first game.  The Sky, though, is more of a defensive team having traded some of their scorers. The Wings have to rely even more on ball hog Arike Ogunbowale with Howard out.

The Sky are dealing with injuries themselves along with plenty of roster movement and a first-year coach in Teresa Weatherspoon. It's going to take them time to jell, especially on the offensive side.

Don't look for the Storm to be so inept scoring-wise as they were during an opening-night, 83-70, home loss to the Lynx this past Tuesday. Now we have a quick rematch. Expect more scoring.

The revamped Storm added Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike to go with Jewell Loyd and Ezi Magbegor. That's a lot of offense. The Storm should do much better in the scoring column now that they've played a game.

Seattle shot 37.2 percent from the floor, made only one of nine 3-pointers and committed 17 turnovers in the loss to Minnesota. Loyd, who led the WNBA in scoring last year at 24.7 points, scored just 10 points while missing 16 of 19 shots from the floor.

The Storm know the Lynx's defense better now. Look for them to come out aggressive and not overthink things, like they did in the opener.

Minnesota didn't have a good perimeter game either. The Lynx were just 7-of-24 from 3-point range and only got to the free throw line nine times. Yet they still scored 83 points because of the inside dominance of superstar Napheesa Collier and Alanna Smith. The two combined to make 17 of 34 shots from the floor. Collier and Smith should continue to score in the paint while the Lynx's guards should do better from 3-point range.

I have no doubt that Caitlin Clark will be a star in the WNBA. But the league schedule makers didn't do Clark, nor the Fever, any breaks. Indiana opened with a 21-point road loss to Connecticut and now has to play the Liberty, who eliminated the Sun in the playoffs last season.

New York is the second-best team in the WNBA with designs of being the best. The Liberty will have five of the top seven players on the court in today's game. Breanna Stewart is one of the two best players in the league and Sabrina Ionescu ranks in the top 10 with Jonquel Jones not far behind.

The Liberty weren't sharp in their season-opener either, failing to cover an 11 1/2-point spread in an 85-80 win against Washington. I expect the prideful Liberty to play better here and they won't lack motivation going against Clark and all of the hype surrounding her.

New York went 4-0 against Indiana last season with an average winning margin of 13.2 points. Yes, the Fever will be much better than last season. But they aren't close to jelling yet as the team transitions into the Clark era.

Clark committed 10 turnovers against the Sun. She had 11 in two preseason games. There is going to be an adjustment period between Clark and her new teammates. They need more time. Drawing the powerful Liberty in just their second game of the season is a bad break.

Las Vegas is the two-time defending WNBA champions. Phoenix had the worst mark in the league at 9-31 last season. But this isn't the mismatch you might think.

But the Mercury's strongest off-season move was hiring Nate Tibbetts to be their head coach. Tibbetts is well-respected having been an NBA assistant coach for 12 years with the Magic, Trail Blazers and Cavaliers.

The Aces still could be celebrating their second straight championship. They were honored at the White House last week. The Aces only got to play one preseason game and it wasn't against a WNBA club. They played the Puerto Rico national team at South Carolina. That's not an ideal way to get ready for the season where every team will be sky-high to upset the Aces.

This total would make sense - if it were last year when Phoenix had the worst defense in the WNBA.

But while the defending champion Aces stood pat this season after having the second-best defense in the league last year, Phoenix has made many upgrades to fix its defensive woes.

The biggest move for the Mercury was hiring respected NBA assistant coach Nate Tibbetts to be their head coach. Tibbets has an excellent defensive reputation having coached for the Magic and Cavaliers. Tibbetts and his staff really stressed and emphasized defense during practice and preseason.

The Mercury have enhanced their backcourt defense with the addition of Natasha Cloud, a two-time all-defensive team selection.

It wouldn't be surprising if the Aces struggle offensively early in the season having had off-season distractions and playing just one exhibition game. That wasn't against a WNBA team either, but the Puerto Rican national team in South Carolina in a festive atmosphere welcoming A'ja Wilson back to her college.

Seattle has much more star power this season. But it's going to take a while for the Storm to gel. The Lynx have improved, too, and are not getting enough respect with this high of a line.

The Lynx have a superstar, Napheesa Collier, and have improved their bench and defense. Their backcourt is more experienced with the additions of veterans Courtney Williams and Natisha Hiedeman.

I have a lot of respect for Minnesota coach Cheryl Reeve. Look for the Lynx to stay within the number here.

It's only fitting that New York and Las Vegas meet in the WNBA Championship Series. Both are superpowers loaded with star power and clearly the two best teams in the WNBA.

Las Vegas was the best team during the first half of the season. But two things may have changed that.

The Aces lost starter and former league superstar Candace Parker to a severe ankle injury and the Liberty got better as the season progressed.

New York defeated the Aces in three of four meetings following the All-Star break when it was beginning to peak and Parker was out. Kiah Stokes replaced Parker. Stokes is a good rebounder and defender, but has no offensive game. Parker being out also taxes the Aces' limited depth.

The Liberty are the one opponent good enough to exploit this situation. The Liberty has a lineup full of scorers and rebounders, while Las Vegas is almost playing 4-on-5 when it has the ball because of Stokes' offensive limitations.  

Maybe the Aces still are the superior team. But I'll take this many points to find that out.

New York picked a bad time to play its worst game of the season. That came this past Sunday in Game 1 of its semifinal playoff series against Connecticut. The Sun whipped the Liberty, 78-63. While it was the Liberty's worst showing of the season, it was the Sun's most consistent game of the season, according to their coach, Stephanie White.

Connecticut is the best defensive team in the WNBA. But New York is the second-highest scoring team in the league and also ranks No. 2 in field goal percentage. The Liberty got the better of the Sun in all four of their regular-season games, winning by an average margin of 15 points.

The Liberty are 35-9 counting the postseason. They haven't lost two straight games all season. The Liberty won their next game following a defeat by an average of 16.3 points.

So I see New York beating the Sun by double-digits.

Good job by Minnesota taking this WNBA playoff series to a deciding third game. The Lynx are home, but should be bigger underdogs than this. Connecticut is a much better team than Minnesota.

The Suns showed that in Game 1 winning by 30 points. The Lynx, though, pulled out an 82-75 win this past Sunday to even the series.

Now the Lynx have the Sun's full attention.

Connecticut led the WNBA in defense and had the fourth-highest scoring offense. Alyssa Thomas is a strong MVP candidate. She's like the Oscar Robertson of the WNBA with her ability to record triple-double games.

Minnesota ranked ninth in scoring and was second-to-last on defense.

Trends favor Connecticut, too. The Sun are 4-0 ATS the past four times following a loss and are 15-5-1 the last 21 games when playing on two days rest.

The Lynx are 2-5 ATS the last seven times after covering and are 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing with two days rest.

Dallas is at least a tier higher than Atlanta and should cover this mid-range number. The Wings swept Atlanta in the three regular-season meetings winning by an average of 10.6 poins.

The teams just met five days ago in Atlanta to close out the regular season and the Wings smashed the Dream, 94-77.

The Wings have a height advantage that the Dream hasn't been able to overcome.

Atlanta is fortunate to even be in the postseason. The Dream picked up the fifth seed when Indiana defeated Minnesota on the final day of the regular-season.

Phoenix has packed in its season, failing to make the playoffs. The Mercury have lost seven in a row. They are 1-17 on the road. This is their second-to-last road game of the season.

Diana Taurasi and Sophie Cunningham are both out with injuries. Those are Phoenix's second and third-best players.

Minnesota is 18-19 and looking to clinch a playoff spot.

The Aces aren't blowing out any opponents as they rest up for the playofs. Las Vegas is just 3-4 in its last seven games. The Aces haven't won by more than 13 points during their last eight games. 

Aces coach Becky Hammon has had to use her bench far more this deep in the season with Candace Parker out and no long breaks between games. This is the Aces' sixth game in 12 days.

The Storm is one of the three worst teams in the WNBA. But you wouldn't know that from how the Storm has been hanging in lately. Seattle upset the Sparks two days ago in Los Angeles. The Storm are 7-6 in their last 13 games. Jewell Loyd, the league's top scorer, gives the Storm a chance in every game. 

Holding just a half-game lead on Chicago for the final playoff spot, Los Angeles should have tremendous motivation for this home game against Seattle. It's the Sparks' second-to-last home contest. They finish the regular season with three straight road games.

Seattle has Jewell Loyd, the WNBA's leading scorer, but little else. The Storm also lacks incentive having already been eliminated from playoff contention.

The Storm have lost three in a row, going 0-2-1 ATS in those games.

The Sparks have been a hot point spread team covering 10 of their last 12. They also are 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times hosting Seattle.

Phoenix is averaging 68.6 points in its last five games, all of which have gone Under.

I see another Under here.

The Mercury has a cluster injury problem in the backcourt. Diana Taurasi and Sophie Cunningham, the team's second and third-leading scorers, are each questionable. Taurasi has missed the last two games with a toe injury. Cunningham suffered a jaw injury in Phoenix's last game two days ago. The Mercury are 1-15 on the road. They have already been eliminated from the playoffs. So there's no urgency for Taurasi and Cunningham to play.

Also the Mercury are without Shey Peddy, a guard who was part of their rotation.

Phoenix does have 6-foot-9 inch Brittney Griner back in the lineup. Although Griner is the Mercury's leading scorer, her presence is a plus for the Under because Phoenix has to play at a slow, plodding pace to accommodate her low-post presence.

Atlanta should be in a defensive mood. The Dream have lost three in a row, including blowing a late lead in an 83-80 loss to lowly Indiana this past Sunday. This marks the Dream's third game in five days so I don't see them playing up-tempo.

A strong case can be made either way that Las Vegas or New York is the best team in the WNBA. No other team in the league comes close to matching these superpowers.

The teams have split their four games. This is the final regular-season matchup between them and the deck is stacked against Las Vegas.

The Aces are a tired team playing for the fourth time in seven days and 11th in 22 days. It's the Aces' fourth consecutive road games. This is a very heavy schedule especially for the WNBA. It's made worse for the Aces because they lack depth and have been going with a short rotation due to starter Candace Parker being out.

Las Vegas hasn't practiced, nor even taken a shootaround during its previous two games in order to save its legs. A blowout loss to Washington as a 10-point favorite two days ago shows just how vulnerable the Aces are right now because of the heavy fatigue factor.

It's the wrong time for the Aces to meet the Liberty, who are peaking winning 18 of their last 21 games.

Who's the hottest team in the WNBA? It's Los Angeles if you go by point spreads. The Sparks are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games with five straight outright victories.

The Sparks have gotten healthy and their lineup has stabilized because of it. That's been a key in their winning streak. They also have an excellent coach in Curt Miller.

Just two games ago, the Sparks upset the Aces, 78-72, in Las Vegas. The Dream just lost to the Aces, 112-100, at home this past Tuesday. Atlanta is regressing after showing signs of peaking going 3-7 SU and ATS in its last 10 games.

The Dream aren't expected to have star guard Allisha Gray again. She missed Atlanta's game against the Aces due to an ankle injury. Also out for Atlanta is Nia Coffey, the Dream's third-leading rebounder and fifth-leading scorer.

Connecticut is the third-best team in the WNBA. Unfortunately for the Sun they are a distant third behind Las Vegas and New York.

The Sun host New York here, but it's not a good spot for them. This marks Connecticut's third game in five days, all at different venues. The Sun have lost three of their past five games. They narrowly escaped short-handed Washington on the road two days ago winning, 68-64.

New York is peaking at the right time as their star players are now more acclimated to each other. The Liberty are 20-4 in their last 24 games, covering six of their past seven games.

The Liberty are battle-tested having played the Aces twice during their last three games with both games being in Las Vegas.

New York should be well-rested and prepared for this challenge having been idle since last Friday.

Chicago can't take a home loss here to the lowly 10-22 Storm. The Sky are 1 1/2 games out of a playoff spot with the season winding down.

The Sky are in stop-the-pain mode after a 79-73 home loss to Connecticut two days ago. Chicago was only 3 of 21 from 3-point range in that game.

The Sky should shoot much better against this much weaker defensive opponent. The Storm have the league's leading scorer, Jewell Loyd, but are the worst-shooting team in the WNBA.

Both teams are playing for the third time in five days. Chicago, however, has been home for the past four days, while this is Seattle's third different venue in five days.

The teams just met two days ago in Seattle and Minnesota won, 78-70. The Lynx won despite making just 6 of 21 3-point shots. Now Minnesota is home.

Seattle is one of the three worst teams in the WNBA at 9-22. The Lynx are a playoff team. Minnesota is 11-5-1 ATS when playing on one day's rest.

The Storm is heavily reliant on Jewell Loyd and she's been cold. Loyd has missed 21 of her last 24 shots from 3-point range.

The timing is ripe for the Sparks to stay well within this lopsided point spread.

The Aces are in a letdown spot after marquee home games this past Tuesday and Thursday against New York. Las Vegas had a highly-satisfying, 88-75, revenge win against the Liberty two days ago. Now they have to play less than 48 hours later in a day game.

Las Vegas has the best record in the WNBA by four games. A playoff berth has been clinched by the Aces.

Los Angeles is in contention for a playoff spot. The Sparks have gotten healthy and are playing well with a three-game win streak. Their last victory came a week ago when they defeated Atlanta, 85-74.

That may have been the Sparks' best defensive effort. LA comes in motivated, prepared, rested and in excellent form rendering this point spread too high.

These teams just met two days ago in Las Vegas for the Commissioner's Cup, an honorary game that didn't count in the standings. I thought it would be a loose game between the league's two-highest scoring teams. So I went with the Over.

Wrong.

New York destroyed Las Vegas, 82-63. The game went Under by 33 points.

Live and learn. I'm confidently going Under in the rematch.

The Liberty have held the Aces to an average of 62 points - 32 points below the Aces' league-leading 94 points a game - in two games during the last 11 days.

It's more than just the Aces being cold from the floor and superstar center A'ja Wilson getting bottled up in the paint. The Liberty are exploiting the offensive inefficiency of Aces center Kiah Stokes, who has replaced injured Candace Parker. Stokes is strictly a defensive player. She has no offensive game. That allowed the Liberty to fully concentrate on Las Vegas' four other starters, including double-teams on Wilson.

The Aces' one weakness is lack of depth. The Liberty are perhaps the only team in the league that can exploit that. New York's bench outscored Las Vegas' reserves by 20 points in Tuesday's game.

The Liberty's 95.3 defensive rating during the last seven games is the second-best in the league.

The Aces have the best defensive rating in the WNBA. But Aces coach Becky Hammon wasn't pleased with her team's defense in Tuesday's loss.

Expect the Aces - in double revenge mode and after suffering their first home loss of the season - to come out highly motivated, playing strong defense. There should be a playoff intensity to this game, which translates to tough defense.

These are the two highest scoring teams in the league. New York averages 88.5 points. That scoring average goes up to 96 points if you count just the last three games. Las Vegas is No. 1 in the WNBA in scoring at 94 points and also No. 1 in field goal percentage, free throw percentage and 3-point percentage.

If the two teams just hit their scoring average the total easily goes Over.

I'm expecting the final score will go Over. These are the two superpowers of the league. This game will draw extra attention because it's the annual Commissioner's Cup. Players from the winning team earn $30,000 with the MVP getting an extra $5,000. These players don't make NBA-type salaries. That money is a big incentive for them. The pride of being named MVP for the game should spur the three superstars competing - A'ja Wilson, Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu - into big scoring games.

And here's the kicker: The game does not count in the standings. So basically it's an exhibition, which should have an All-Star Game offensive-type flavor to it.

Both teams rank among the three-worst in the WNBA. Phoenix and Seattle have been playing better, though.

Phoenix has won two in a row. However, those victories were achieved at home. The Mercury are 1-13 on the road. They also are 7-18-1 ATS following a win.

Seattle is in rebuild mode, but gets tremendous home fan support. The Storm are 4-2 in their last six games. They have covered in five of their past seven games.

The Storm pulled out a 68-67 upset home victory in their last game, coming from 16 points down to beat Atlanta this past Thursday. That should give them momentum and confidence.

Seattle should also have confidence against this opponent having just defeated the Mercury in Phoenix eight days ago, 97-91.

Discount road losses to the Aces and Liberty, the league's two powerhouses, and Atlanta is 10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games. 
The Dream are a couple of tiers ahead of Seattle and should cover against the Storm. 

Seattle is 2-13 at home this season. The Storm have lost their past six home contests. They also are without injured Gabby Williams. This is a huge loss. She could be the Storm's second or third-best all-around player. I don't believe this line has fully accounted for her absence here. 
9
The Storm just played two days ago. They are close to being a one-person scoring show with Jewell Loyd, the WNBA's top scorer. Loyd averages 11 more points than the second-highest scoring Seattle player. Loyd had an off-shooting night and the Storm lost at home to the Sun by 12 points this past Tuesday.

Atlanta has been idle since dispatching Indiana by nine points at home this past Sunday. The Dream defeated the Storm, 85-75, in Atlanta when the teams last met on July 12 for the first time this season. Loyd didn't play in that game, but Williams did. 

I see this as a huge bounce back spot for Las Vegas. The Aces were held to a season-low in points by New York in their last game this past Sunday, losing 99-61. 

Despite that low scoring output, Las Vegas easily leads the WNBA in scoring at 93.1 points. Dallas is No. 3 in scoring at 86.2 points.

The Wings just surrendered 104 points twice in home losses to Chicago during their last two games. That was 23 points above the Sky's season scoring average. 

Both the Aces and Wings like to push pace. So I see an up-tempo matchup here. The Aces have gone Over in 14 of their last 19 road games. 

The Aces are the best team in the WNBA. New York is the only team even remotely close to the Aces.

I see this as a kill spot for Las Vegas following its 99-61 embarrassing road loss to the Liberty two days ago.

The 24-3 Aces haven't lost twice in a row all season. They followed up their earlier two losses by victories of 13 and 24 points.

The Aces have won their last five road games by an average of 17.6 points. Dallas is not in good form having just lost consecutive home games to 12-15 Chicago by a combined 23 points.

Indiana had the worst record in the WNBA last season and the Fever have the worst record in the league this season.

The Fever are 2-14 in their last 16 games. They have failed to cover in their past five games.

The Sparks are a disappointing 10-18. But they've been hit hard by injuries. So at least they have an excuse. Now, though, the Sparks are getting healthy. They just beat the Mystics, 91-83, on the road this past Sunday. That was the Sparks' fifth straight cover.

LA is the better team. It's not too much to ask the Sparks to merely win this game.

Indiana is back in a familiar spot in the WNBA - having the worst record.

The Fever are 2-13 in their last 15 games. They just were blown out, 88-72, at home by Connecticut two days ago.

Atlanta isn't as good as Connecticut. But the Dream are playing for playoff seeding and have strong motivation. They are home following bad road losses to Las Vegas and Phoenix. The 20-point loss to the Mercury in their last game this past Thursday was an embarrassment.

The Fever have struggled against the Dream point spread-wise going 3-12-1 ATS during the past 16 meetings.

Seattle has the worst record in the WNBA at 6-20. But two of those victories came against Phoenix.

So the Mercury have double revenge being 0-2 versus the Storm. More important than that, though, is Phoenix is home and has momentum.

Phoenix is 1-13 on the road, but 6-6 at home. The Mercury played maybe their best game of the season this past Thursday at home upsetting Atlanta, 91-71, as 7 1/2-point underdogs. Diana Taurasi scored 42 points to become the first WNBA player to reach 10,000 career points.

The 41-year-old Taurasi is averaging 31.7 points in her last three games. She's been a big inspiration for the Mercury, who get back star center Brittney Griner.

The Storm have been playing better, but are off a deflating home loss to the Wings, 76-65, this past Wednesday. Phoenix has covered its past four home games.

These are the two hardest-hit injury teams in the WNBA. Washington still isn't going to have Elena Delle Donne, Ariel Atkins and Shakira Austin, but I see the Mystics covering this number.

The Mystics are 12-13. Los Angeles is 9-17 having lost 10 of its past 12 games. LA is 2-9 SU, 2-8-1 ATS on the road and this is a difficult away spot. The Sparks hosted the Liberty this past Tuesday. This is their first road contest since July 22 and it's a cross-country trip.

Washington is below .500 for the first time this season. The Mystics have been idle since Sunday when they finished a three-game, five-day road trip going 0-3. They should be rested, prepared and motivated for this matchup.

The Mystics are 8-4 at home. They have covered seven of their last eight home contests.

Phoenix is 6-19, tied for the worst record in the WNBA. Atlanta is a middle-level team. So the point spread may seem right. But I see this being a much closer game than the spread indicates.

Four things give me optimism the Mercury can stay within this number:

No. 1: The game is in Phoenix. The Mercury are dreadful on the road, but a respectable 6-7 at home. The Dream are playing at a different arena for the fourth time in a row.

No. 2: Short revenge. The Dream defeated Phoenix, 78-65, when they hosted them on July 25. The Mercury made only 5-of-24 (21 percent) 3-pointers. Brittney Griner played in that game. She missed 12 of 19 shots from the field and had a point differential of minus 20. Griner won't play today. So that actually could be a positive given how poorly she played against the Dream in the previous meeting.

No. 3: Phoenix has the better defensive number. The Mercury give up a point fewer per game than Atlanta.

No. 4: The Diana Taurasi factor. The 41-year star guard remains a very good player and a fiery force. Taurasi is the league's all-time leading scorer. If she scores more than 18 points today, she'll pass 10,000 career points. Phoenix fans are aware of that and will be rooting hard for her. So the fans and team should very much be motivated.

Atlanta hasn't been this large of an underdog all season. The Aces are having a record-breaking season, but this is too many points for them to lay.

The Dream have picked up their game winning nine of their last 12. Like the Aces, they have star power with three All-Stars.

Atlanta won't lack motivation. Las Vegas, on the other hand, is off a highly-satisfying 13-point home revenge win against Dallas this past Sunday. The Aces' next game is a marquee matchup on the road against New York, the other superpower in the WNBA. So this is a sandwich spot for the Aces, who once again will be without injured starter Candace Parker.

The teams last met a month ago in Atlanta. The Dream covered for the fourth time in the last five meetings between the two teams. Las Vegas only was able to win, 92-87.

Atlanta is several tiers below the elite teams of the WNBA, specifically the Aces, Liberty and Sun. But the Dream have been playing their best ball winning eight of their past 11 games. They are a tier ahead of the Mystics, who are having trouble competing given all of their injuries.

Washington is 1-4 in its last five games. The Mystics have failed to cover in their last five road games. They continue to be without superstar Elena Delle Donne, Ariel Atkins and Shakira Austin. Those are three of their top five scorers.

They aren't likely to have Queen Egbo either after she hurt her ankle in Washington's last game. Egbo was a front-court rotation player hoping to provide rebounding and interior defense with Delle Donne and Austin out.

It's not the Aces, nor the Liberty, who have the best point spread record in the WNBA. It's the Sun. Connecticut is 14-9-1 (61 percent) ATS. The Sun are tied with the Liberty for the second-best record in the league at 18-6.

The Sun are in a great spot to win big against visiting Minnesota.

The Lynx are in a huge letdown spot after upsetting the Liberty, 88-83, as 13 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Friday. The Lynx also carry a high fatigue rating. This is their third game in five days. Connecticut, by contrast, has been idle since Tuesday.

Minnesota is without its best player, All-Star Napheesa Collier. She leads the Lynx in scoring by a wide margin and in rebounding.

The Sun have covered in six of their last seven games against Minnesota. They are 2-0 versus the Lynx this season winning both times on the road by five and 21 points in the last meeting.

The Lynx are going to have problems scoring against Connecticut, the No. 1 defensive team in the WNBA. Minnesota is without its superstar, Napheesa Collier. She's the fourth-leading scorer in the league at 21.8 points.

Minnesota is in action for the third time in five days. The Lynx are not going to push pace given their fatigue factor. They also play slower on the road. The Under has cashed in five of the Lynx's last seven away contests.

Connecticut won't be taking Minnesota lightly knowing the Lynx just upset the Liberty in New York two days ago despite not having the injured Collier.

The Mystics are down three starters, including their superstar forward, Elena Delle Donne.

But Washington has proven to be spunky and resilient. The Mystics have lost by more than nine points only once in their last 14 games. Washington has covered each of the past four times following a loss.

Dallas also lost in its last game, 88-83 at home to Connecticut. That halted the Wings' five-game win streak. The Wings showed in that loss they are not among the elite teams in the WNBA.

The Wings may have lost their mojo in that defeat. They also have a huge look-ahead game up next playing the Aces in Las Vegas on Sunday.

Washington is the better defensive team, giving up three fewer points per game than the Wings.