|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|04-05-21||Baylor v. Gonzaga -4||Top||86-70||Loss||-110||12 h 29 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - Baylor/Gonzaga *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Gonzaga -4)
I will gladly lay the 4-points with Gonzaga in the title game against Baylor. I just think we are getting a great price here with the Bulldogs after they needed OT to get by UCLA in the Final Four.
I just feel like the Bruins played about as good as they possibly could have in that contest. Not only was Johnny Juzang incredible with 29 points on 12 of 18 shooting, but 3 other UCLA players had 14 or more points. Gonzaga also had one of it's poorer shooting games, going just 7 of 21 from deep and 12 of 20 (60%) from the free throw line. I'm not saying Baylor won't make a game of it, but I think the Bulldogs are without a doubt the better team. Give me Gonzaga -4!
|04-03-21||Houston +5 v. Baylor||Top||59-78||Loss||-109||19 h 58 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - Final Four *PLAY OF THE YEAR* on Houston +5
I feel like I'm in the minority here, but I love the Cougars catching 5-points against Baylor in the Final Four. Not only do I think Houston matches up well with the Bears, but the line to me screams bet Baylor.
No one is giving Houston a chance to win this game. All anyone is talking about is how it's going to be Gonzaga/Baylor in the title game. The betting public isn't going to hesitate laying 5-points with the Bears, as they just assume they are going to win and winning by 6 isn't asking a lot. I'm not saying it's a lock, but whenever you have a massive public play with a line that don't look right in a game of this magnitude, the dog usually cashes.
As far as the matchup is concerned, Baylor is a team that really relies on the 3-ball. They are the best in the country in 3p% offense at KenPom. Defending the 3 is a strength of the Cougars, which is no surprise given their length and athleticism. Houston's defense is giving up an average of 5 3-pointers a game, with opponents shooting just 28.3% from deep against them. Holding teams to an average of 5 3-pointers in this day an age is absurd.
I think they can take the Bears out of their rhythm offensively. I also think Houston's offense is also better than they get credit for. While they don't shoot it at a crazy good percentage, few teams are better in creating second chances with offensive rebounds. It was 100% the difference in their last game against Oregon State when they had 19 offensive boards. They are averaging 15.5 offensive boards over their first 4 games in the tournament. I think they pull off the upset and win this game outright. Give me Houston +5!
|03-30-21||UCLA v. Michigan -6.5||Top||51-49||Loss||-105||23 h 10 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament ELITE 8 PLAY OF THE YEAR (Michigan -6.5)
I love the Wolverines to cover the 6.5 against UCLA. The Michigan team that I have seen in the NCAA Tournament is the one that had everyone saying they were Gonzaga's biggest threat before they had a long break due to Covid back in late January.
The Wolverines just destroyed a really good Florida State team on Sunday 76-58. What's crazy is they won by 18 and had an awful night from deep (3 for 11, 27.3%) and were uncharacteristically bad from the free throw line (15 of 23, 65.2%....shooting 77.4% on the season).
UCLA is No. 11 in the country in offensive efficiency, but are a mere No. 84 in effective FG%. In comparison, Michigan is No. 7 in offensive efficiency and No. 17 in effective FG%. As far as the defensive numbers, Bruins are No. 54 in defensive efficiency and No. 178 in effective FG% defense. Wolverines are No. 8 in efficiency and No. 7 in FG%.
I just think the Wolverines are the superior team on both sides of the ball. I also love that they are such a good free throw shooting team, as that could definitely come in to play. Another thing is the spot for UCLA off that emotional overtime game against Alabama. Might be tough for them to bounce back from that game on just one day of rest. Give me Michigan -6.5!
|03-29-21||Arkansas v. Baylor -7.5||Top||72-81||Win||100||13 h 40 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament 'Elite 8' MAX UNIT Top Play (Baylor -7.5)
I got no problem laying the 7.5-points with Baylor in Monday's Elite 8 showdown with Arkansas. I was on the Razorbacks against Oral Roberts and that was clearly a mistake. Arkansas was lucky to win that game and now will be lucky to keep it close against a far superior Bears team.
For the majority of this season it was Gonzaga and Baylor and then everyone else. It's looking like we were right all along. The Bulldogs and Bears have looked like the two best teams. I thought Villanova was going to give Baylor a run for their money and while they kept it respectable, they still lost bye double-digits. I think Villanova was a better team than what they will see here with Arkansas.
I also don't think we have seen Baylor play their best in the NCAA Tournament. They certainly haven't shot the ball up to their potential. With how Arkansas struggles to defend the 3-point line and all the guys Baylor has that can shoot the 3-ball at a high rate, I think this might be the game where everything clicks. Give me the Bears -7.5!
|03-28-21||UCLA +7 v. Alabama||88-78||Win||100||10 h 7 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament 'Sweet 16' BOOKIE SLAUGHTER (UCLA +7)
I will take the points with UCLA against Alabama. I'm a big Nate Oats fan and have been on this Crimson Tide team a lot this year, but this just feels like they are being asked to lay too many points. It's been pretty obvious the Pac-12 was better than we thought. The thing is the books have just not wanted to adjust their numbers on them.
We saw this yesterday. I thought the books were setting a trap making Oregon State another big dog against Loyola and they won outright again. I'm not making the same mistake here. UCLA is not going to be intimidated by Alabama and let's not overlook the Tide's easy path to the Sweet 16 with games against Iona and Maryland. I know it was in December, but Alabama lost by 18 to another Pac-12 team in Stanford. Give me UCLA +7!
|03-27-21||Syracuse +6.5 v. Houston||Top||46-62||Loss||-105||34 h 13 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament 'Sweet 16' MAX UNIT Top Play (Syracuse +6.5)
I love the Orange as a 6.5-point dog against Houston in the last game on the board for Saturday's Sweet 16 card. I know Syracuse might be the popular side, but I just can't help myself with the price we are getting.
There's just something about the style that the Orange play under Jim Boeheim that translates to success in the NCAA Tournament. I know this isn't all NCAA Tournament, but it still speaks volumes. Syracuse is 88-61 (60%) ATS in their last 147 neutral site games and have gone a ridiculous 42-19 ATS in their last 61 as a neutral site dog. Orange are also 10-1 ATS last 11 NCAA Tournament games when seeded anywhere from a No. 9 seed to a No. 12 seed. Give me Syracuse!
|03-27-21||Oral Roberts v. Arkansas -11||70-72||Loss||-113||32 h 39 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament 'Sweet 16' ATS SHOCKER (Arkansas -11)
Everyone is on No. 15 seed Oral Roberts as a double-digit dog. Whenever there's a game of this magnitude with such a big public backing, I'm going to be looking hard at the other side. Even more so when the public is crazy about an underdog.
There's more than just fading the public with backing Arkansas. These two teams actually played back in late December and while Arkansas only won the game by 11-points at home, they outscored the Golden Eagles 57-36 in the 2nd half after a sloppy start that saw them score just 30 in the 1st half.
Note that one reason the Razorbacks might have started slow in that game, is they hadn't played in a week, were sitting 6-0 and off 3 straight wins by 25 or more and were a near 20-point favorite. Arkansas isn't going to take Golden Roberts lightly this time around. Give me the Razorbacks -11!
|03-25-21||Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky +1||Top||72-65||Loss||-110||50 h 3 m||Show|
50* (CBB) Thursday NIT Situational ANNIHILATOR (WKU +1)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Hilltoppers at basically a pick'em against Louisiana Tech in the Quarterfinals of the NIT. I had big concerns with Western Kentucky going into the NIT, as I thought they could have a hard time getting up for this tournament after losing in OT to North Texas of the C-USA Tournament title game, which would have landed them in the NCAA Tournament.
While they barely scraped by with a 69-67 win over St. Mary's in the first round of the NIT, I think they are going to be locked in now that they got a win and will be motivated to win the NIT. I definitely like them to beat the Bulldogs. Louisiana Tech comes in with a record of 22-7, but outside of their conference schedule they didn't really face anyone other than LSU, who they lost to by 31-points. WKU beat Memphis and Alabama in non-conference and only lost by 6 to West Virginia. Give me the Hilltoppers +1!
|03-22-21||Colorado v. Florida State -1||53-71||Win||100||22 h 9 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament 'Round of 32' VEGAS INSIDER (Florida State -1)
I like the value here with Florida State at basically a pick'em against the Buffaloes. I'm a little surprised with the lack of respect the Seminoles are getting in this game. Maybe it's cause they didn't dominate UNCG in the first round, but I actually wasn't surprised with them not blowing out the Spartans.
I also think we might be seeing an overreaction here with Colorado and their 96-73 win over Georgetown. The Hoyas did come in hot off a Big East Tournament title, but that's far from a great team. The biggest thing in that game is Colorado just had one of those nights where they couldn't miss. They shot 60.7% from the field and were 16 of 25 (64%) from behind the 3-point line. If they shoot like that we are screwed, but I think this FSU defense will be up to the task. Give me the Seminoles -1!
|03-22-21||LSU v. Michigan -4.5||Top||78-86||Win||100||22 h 40 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament MAX UNIT Top Play (Michigan -4.5)
I got no problem here laying the 4.5-points with the Wolverines against LSU in the Round of 32 on Monday. I just feel like there's a little too much being made of the injury to Isaiah Livers and it's creating value with Michigan. There's a ton of talent on this Wolverines team and like we have seen with Villanova after they lost Gillespie. This is still an elite team and I just don't think LSU is anywhere close to them in terms of talent and execution.
I played against the Tigers in the first round and lost, as they really made easy work of St. Bonaventure. Some of that was the Bonnies just not shooting the ball well and getting owned on the glass. Those are two things that Michigan does extremely well. The biggest thing here is defense. The Wolverines are way more connected on that side of the ball. Give me Michigan -4.5!
|03-22-21||Oregon v. Iowa -5||95-80||Loss||-110||15 h 51 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament 'Round of 32' ATS SHARP STAKE (Iowa -5)
I got no problem laying a mere 5-points with Iowa as they take on Oregon in the Round of 32 on Monday. I know it's been a rough go for the Big Ten, who had 3 more teams go out on Sunday, including No. 1 seed Illinois. I actually think it's playing into the value here with the Hawks.
What people don't realize with Iowa is that this is a really tough team to play when you haven't faced them. They don't turn the ball over, they have the best player in the country in Luka Garza, they got a bunch of guys who can shoot the 3-ball and their defense has been greatly improved as the season went on.
I really wonder how the Ducks are going to contain Garza. Oregon's tallest guy that plays is 6-8 backup big man Chandler Lawson. Their starting big man is 6-6 Eugene Omoruyi, who is a bigger guy that could run out of gas trying to keep up with Garza. I think with the size advantage and talent that Iowa has down low, Oregon could be in some serious foul trouble early. Give me the Hawkeyes -5!
|03-21-21||Oregon State +6.5 v. Oklahoma State||80-70||Win||100||13 h 59 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament Round of 32 VEGAS INSIDER (Oregon St +6.5)
I will ride Oregon State and the massive wave of momentum that the Beavers will bring into Sunday's game against Oklahoma State. Oregon State came out of nowhere to win the Pac-12 Tournament and not many were giving them any shot against Tennessee on Friday. The Beavers didn't just win, they dominated the Vols in a 70-56 win.
I just think Oregon State is playing to well to be getting this many points against a Oklahoma State team that doesn't really blow teams out. Liberty who likes to play at a snails pace, was able to slow the game down against Oklahoma State, which I think is a really good sign for Oregon State, who also wants to play at a slow pace. Give me Oregon State +6.5!
|03-21-21||North Texas +5.5 v. Villanova||61-84||Loss||-109||12 h 2 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament Round of 32 ATS NO BRAINER (North Texas +5.5)
I really like the value here with North Texas +5.5 against Villanova. It took OT for the Mean Green to get by Purdue, but they really were the better team in that one from start to finish. I think North Texas has a guy that can carry them in Javion Hamlet, but it's not just him. Mean Green had 4 different players score in double-figures.
At the same time, I think Villanova is in some trouble. The Wildcats were able to put away Winthrop, but I just think without Collin Gillespie their start in the Big Dance is going to be short-lived. I really like the Mean Green to win this game, but I can't pass up on the points. Give me North Texas +5.5!
|03-21-21||Syracuse +4 v. West Virginia||Top||75-72||Win||100||8 h 15 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament MAX UNIT SUNDAY Top Play (Syracuse +4)
I really like the value here with Syracuse as a small dog against West Virginia. I know I just bet against the Orange in their First Round game against San Diego State, but I really liked what I saw out of this Syracuse team in that game. I also think they got a bigger edge in games where there's just 1 day of prep between games.
West Virginia looks like they dominated Morehead St with a 84-67 win, but that came was really close until late. It was a 1-point game with less than 15 mins to play in the 2nd half. Mountaineers defense was spotty at best. They just dominated the tournavor department, forcing 18 and only committing 6. That's another thing I like about Syracuse here, as they take really good care of the ball. Give me Syracuse +4!
|03-20-21||Abilene Christian +9 v. Texas||53-52||Win||100||55 h 10 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - March Madness 1st Round DOG OF THE DAY (Abilene Christian +9)
I will roll the dice with Abilene Christian as a 9-point dog to Texas. I think the Longhorns are a good team, but I just think they might be a little overvalued coming into the Big Dance off that Big 12 Tournament title. They were lucky to get out of the first round (trailed Texas Tech by 10 with 12 minutes to play), had their second game against Kansas called off and then beat OK State by 5 in the title game.
Not only is no one picking Abilene Christian, but a lot of people think Texas is a potential Final Four team. I think it makes the Longhorns a little bit vulnerable here, as they might not give this Wildcats team the respect they deserve.
It could come back to bite them. The Wildcats led the country in defensive TO% (26.7%), which plays into a flaw of Texas, who ranks 237th in offensive TO% (20.1%). If they let Abilene Christian get easy baskets on turnovers, it will give that team life and momentum.
Let's also no overlook the fact that this team went on the road and only lost to Texas Tech by a final of 44-51 and later lost by just 13 at Arkansas. That right there shows you the kind of talent this team has being able to hang with two really good teams playing two completely different styles. Give me the Wildcats +9!
|03-20-21||Maryland v. Connecticut -3||63-54||Loss||-108||102 h 51 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - March Madness 1st Round SHARP MONEY Winner (UConn -3)
I’m going to lay the 3-points with the UConn Huskies against the Maryland Terrapins. I get why UConn got the seed they got, but I think if you look at the team that’s coming into the tournament, they might be the most underrated team in the field at least in terms of where they were seeded.
It’s all about sophomore guard James Bouknight. UConn was 11-3 in games in which Bouknight played. Two of those losses were to Creighton by a combined 5 points and the other was a 8-point loss at Villanova, which was only the second game back for Bouknight after he had missed more than a month. Huskies were just 4-4 in the 8 games that Bouknight didn’t play.
KenPom has this team ranked No. 16, which says they are much more like a No. 4 or No. 5 seed.
UConn finished in the Top 25 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency. No team in the Big East was tougher to score on in the paint than the Huskies. Opposing teams show just 46.9% on their 2-point attempts. UConn also led the conference and finished 10th nationally in Block % at 14.4%.
As for Maryland, you got to give head coach Mark Turgeon a lot of credit for getting this team in the NCAA Tournament. Very few thought this team could accomplish what it was able to accomplish this season. With that said, I kinda feel like the Terps overachieved this year. Good teams don’t go into the final two games of the regular-season on a 5-game win streak and lose to the likes of Northwestern and at home to Penn State.
Maryland isn’t a horrible 3-point shooting team, but they also aren’t great. I just think with how difficult it’s going to be to score inside, it’s really going to make it tough on the Terps to keep this game respectable.
The only reason this isn’t a Top Play for me is, there is a little concern that starting point guard R.J. Cole did have to leave their loss to Creighton in the Big East Tournament with a head laceration and concussion, but he will have more than a week to get cleared for this game. I’m pretty confident he goes. Not to mention I think we are getting a good 3-4 points in value on this line, so I’ll be on the Huskies with or without him. Give me UConn -3.
|03-20-21||Grand Canyon v. Iowa -14.5||74-86||Loss||-105||51 h 29 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - March Madness 1st Round NO DOUBT Blowout (Iowa -14.5)
I will lay the big number with Iowa in their first round game with Grand Canyon. The Hawkeyes might not be on the same level as the 3-big dogs in Gonzaga, Illinois and Baylor, but they are damn close.
After really getting their butts kicked (only lost by 11) to Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament, I think we are going to see a locked in Hawkeyes team. I know Grand Canyon only lost by 1 to Arizona St and by just 10 to Colorado in non-conference, but there's a pretty big gap between the top of the Pac-12 and the top of the Big Ten.
Iowa is also a team that dominated the competition in non-conference play (only loss was to Gonzaga). I feel like they are a very difficult team to prepare for when you haven't played against them before. It's really hard to know what to expect from a player like Luka Garza. I think he's going to dominate this game and with only a couple big guys on the roster, foul trouble could become a big problem for the Antelopes. Give me Iowa -14.5!
|03-20-21||UC-Santa Barbara +7.5 v. Creighton||62-63||Win||100||48 h 26 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - March Madness 1st Round ATS SHOCKER (UC-Santa Barbara +7.5)
I really like the value here with the Gauchos getting 7.5-points against Creighton. I just really have concerns with the Bluejays. Everything was going great for this Creighton team until head coach Greg McDermott made some racially insensitive things to his players that was brought to the media's attention. He got a whole 1-game suspension for that.
I know that Creighton won their first two of the Big East Tournament with McDermott back, but they also laid a huge egg in the title game, falling 48-73 to Georgetown. That's about as uncharacteristic of a Bluejays performance as you will see.
I'm not talking about losing by 25, but scoring 48 points and shooting 5 of 12 from the free throw line is quite the outlier. Denzel Mahoney certainly wanted his in that game, shooting 1-13 from the field (1-10 from 3).
On top of those concerns, another thing to note is based on what we saw in the Big Ten Tournament, Lucas Oil Stadium can be challenging on shooters the first time they play (backdrop takes some getting use to). Could be a big problem for a Creighton team that is 32nd in the country getting 37.9% of their points from behind the 3-point line.
UC Santa Barbara brings a solid defense, slower tempo of play and an offense that scores efficiently inside. I think they give the Bluejays a run for their money. Give me the Gauchos +7.5
|03-20-21||NC-Greensboro +11 v. Florida State||Top||54-64||Win||100||46 h 40 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament MAX UNIT SATURDAY Top Play (UNCG +11)
I love UNC Greensboro catching double-digits against Florida State. I got nothing but respect for the Seminoles, but I don't see the Spartans going down without a fight. There's a lot of rumors that head coach Wes Miller, who is a legend at this program, will leave for a better job when this is all done.
I think that in the back of their mind gives this UNC Greensboro team a little extra on the floor. Not to mention no one is picking them to win this game, which not only adds fuel to their fire, but also makes it really hard for FSU players to start thinking ahead to who they might play Monday.
I like all that, plus they got a stud point guard in Isaiah Miller, who not only can score (19.3 ppg), he does it all. He rebounds (6.9 rpg), distributes (4.0 apg) and defends (3x Southern Conference Defensive player of the year. He dabbled in going pro after last season, but came back to do something special. I think he just might. Give me UNC-Greensboro +11!
|03-19-21||Morehead State v. West Virginia -13||67-84||Win||100||31 h 3 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - March Madness 1st Round ATS SLAUGHTER (West Virginia -13)
I feel really confident about West Virginia being one of those top seeds that don't have to sweat their first game. The Mountaineers are without question one of the best teams in the country. They only went 18-9 overall and 11-6 in Big 12 play, but only 1 of those 9 losses came by more than 5-points. That includes a 5-point loss to Gonzaga on a neutral court. A game they led in by 9 late in the 2nd half.
I just don't think Morehead State has any shot here of keeping this close. The Eagles dominated the Ohio Valley, going 17-3 in the regular-season and winning the conference tournament. That's great in all, but they went just 1-5 in non-conference vs D1 schools. They lost by 36 to Kentucky, by 18 to Richmond, by 33 to Ohio State and 15 to Clemson. I just think the Mountaineers can play their "B" game here and win this game by 20+. Give me West Virginia -13!
|03-19-21||North Texas v. Purdue -7||Top||78-69||Loss||-110||28 h 21 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament MAX UNIT FRIDAY Top Play (Purdue -7)
|03-19-21||Colgate v. Arkansas -8.5||68-85||Win||100||72 h 37 m||Show|
40* (CBB) March Madness 1st Round VEGAS INSIDER (Arkansas -8.5)
I was shocked to see the Razorbacks laying single-digits in this one. Arkansas was one of the hottest teams in the country over the last couple of months. They went 11-1 to close out the regular-season with the only loss being a 4-point setback at Oklahoma State. They did lose in the semis of the SEC Tournament in a hard fought loss to LSU, but overall this team is 12-2 in their last 14.
They also went a perfect 8-0 in non-conference play and while they didn’t face the toughest non-conference schedule., they did face three teams that made the field of 68 in No. 13 seed North Texas, No. 14 seed Abilene Christian and No. 15 seed in Oral Roberts, all of which they beat by double-digits.
Arkansas finished up at 22-6. Of those 6 losses, the only one that came against a team that finished the year ranked outside the Top 30 at KenPom is Missouri, who finished No. 51.
As for Colgate, they finished 14-1 and ended the year on a 12-game winning streak. They got the automatic bid into the Big Dance by winning the Patriot League Tournament, where they beat a Loyola Maryland team that went 4-10 in the regular-season.
For those that don’t know, the Patriot League played a wacky conference schedule, where they broke up the 10 team league into two divisions and then teams just played their division all season. Colgate’s conference schedule included 4 games against Army, 4 against Boston U and 4 against Holy Cross. They played Boston U again in the first round of the tournament, before taking down Bucknell and Loyola Maryland.
The Raiders have played a whopping 5 different opponents all year and Army is the highest rated of the bunch in KenPom’s rankings at No. 189. Colgate didn’t play a single non-conference game.
Another thing I think worth mentioning is that Navy posted the best conference record in the Patriot League at 12-1 and they did play some non-conference games. One of those being a 82-52 loss to Maryland, which I think kinda speaks to the gap in talent we are seeing here. It’s not like Colgate dominated the competition. Also, I’m aware that this was a really good Colgate team last year, which finished up 25-9, but they played 3 big programs last year in non-conference, losing by 23 to Clemson, by 16 to Syracuse and by 29 to Auburn. While they did return a lot from that team, they arguably lost their two best players.
I just have a hard time seeing the Raiders keep this close. Not only is this a massive step-up in competition, but this an Arkansas team that can really cause some problems. The Razorbacks want to speed up the game and make it uncomfortable for their opponent. They do that by not only playing fast, but they force a bunch of turnovers and do a great job on the other side of protecting the ball. Arkansas finished 35th in offensive efficiency. Colgate didn’t face a team that finished in the Top 200. Razorbacks also were 14th in defensive efficiency. The best team the Raiders faced defensively was Army at 149. Every other team by Loyola Maryland ranked outside the Top 286, so I would be cautious when looking at the fact that this team put up 86.3 ppg and gave up just 68.6 ppg.
|03-18-21||NC State v. Davidson -1.5||Top||75-61||Loss||-106||21 h 35 m||Show|
50* (CBB) - First Four MAX UNIT Top Play (Davidson -1.5)
I love the value heere with Davidson as a slim 1.5-point favorite against N.C. State in Thursday's First Fout matchup. I've not really been a big believer in this Wolfpack team this year. They started out 6-1 against a soft schedule and finished 5-1 in their last 6, which I think covers up an awful 2-8 stretch from early January to mid-Feburary.
Sure they had a couple nice wins, but for the most part they struggled against the better teams in the ACC. I think it says a lot for them to lose by 21 (68-89) to Syracuse in their first game of the ACC Tournament.
Davidson is a team that I think flies a bit under the radar. They more than held their own in A-10 play and had to deal with a long Covid break. Of their 5 losses in A-10 play, their largest margin of defeat was just 12. The ability to always be in a game is the sign of a good team. The Wildcats also proved how good they were in non-conference play, losing by just 2 to Texas and by 1 to Providence on neutral courts. Give me Davidson -1.5!
|03-18-21||Drake -1.5 v. Wichita State||53-52||Loss||-110||20 h 46 m||Show|
40* (CBB) - First Four VEGAS INSIDER (Drake -1.5)
I really like Drake at basically a pick'em against Wichita State in Thursday's First Four action. The Bulldogs were far better than anyone expected them to be. They started out 18-0 and even after losing their best player to injury, they kept playing at a high level.
They will get back their senior stud in Shanquan Hemphill. I also think people are sleeping on the maturation of sophomore point guard Joseph Yesufu. He scored 20 or more in 5 of their last 7, including back-to-back 30+ point games.
Wichita State is a good team, but can really be stagnant on offense. They finished a pathetic 279th in the country in effective FG %. Drake in comparison was 30th and had the No. 19 ranked offensive efficiency in the nation. Bulldogs also are great at taking care of the ball and defend at a high level. I just think they are without a doubt the better team. Give me Drake -1.5!
|03-14-21||VCU v. St Bonaventure -2.5||Top||65-74||Win||100||3 h 8 m||Show|
50* VCU/ST BONAVENTURE *AAC PLAY OF THE MONTH* (St. Bonaventure -2.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Bonnies at basically a pick'em against VCU in the A-10 Championship game on Sunday. St. Bonaventure has really been impressive in this tournament. They took care of Duquesne 75-59 as a 7.5-point favorite on Friday and then crushed St. Louis 71-53 as a 2-point dog on Saturday.
Not that VCU hasn't played well, I just think that the Bonnies are not only the more talented team, but they are the more experienced team. They are also locked in defensively right now. They haven't given up 60 points in any of their last 6 games.
St Bonaventure is a perfect 7-0 ATS last 2 seasons in neutral site games, while VCU is just 2-10 ATS last 12 on the road against a quality team that's outscoring opponents by 4+ ppg. Rams are also a mere 3-13 ATS last 16 on the road vs a team like the Bonnies that takes good care of the ball and averages fewer than 14 turnovers/game. Give me St. Bonaventure -2.5!
|03-13-21||Georgia Tech v. Florida State -4.5||80-75||Loss||-110||11 h 4 m||Show|
40* GA TECH/FLORIDA ST NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Florida State -4.5)
I really like Florida State as a 4.5-point favorite against Georgia Tech in Saturday's ACC Title game. I was really impressed with how the Seminoles let a big lead slip away against UNC, fell behind and then came back and finished the job in a 69-66 win. I think that really gives this FSU team a lot of momentum going into this matchup.
Georgia Tech on the other hand was not that impressive in their first game on Thursday, barely escaping with a 70-66 win over Miami. They then had their game against Virginia called off on Friday. A game I don't think they would have won.
The other thing I love here is this game feels like unfinished business for Florida State, who lost out on the ACC regular-season title because of a loss at Notre Dame in the final game of the season. I see this as a big time statement game for the Seminoles and I just think if they play with that mindset they are going to win here going away. Give me FSU -4.5!
|03-13-21||Iowa +4 v. Illinois||Top||71-82||Loss||-110||6 h 27 m||Show|
50* IOWA/ILLINOIS NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Iowa +4) '
I love the value here with Iowa as a 4-point dog against the Fighting Illini. I was really impressed with the Hawkeyes 62-57 win over Wisconsin in the Quarterfinals on Friday. Iowa was able to win a game, despite one of their worst shooting performances from deep this season. The Hawkeyes were just 2-20 from behind the 3-point line.
I think that really shows how dangerous this Hawkeyes team is and how much better they have got defensively over the last month of the season. Illinois has played great down the stretch, but they did just barely hold on to beat Iowa 80-75 at home in the only meeting between these two. I just think Iowa is going to come in with a real chip on their shoulder in this game and I really like them to win outright. Give me the Hawkeyes +4!
|03-13-21||Tennessee v. Alabama -4.5||68-73||Win||100||4 h 59 m||Show|
40* TENNESSEE/ALABAMA NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Alabama -4.5)
I think the Crimson Tide made it pretty clear they aren't just satisfied with winning the SEC regular-season title. Alabama absolutely destroyed Mississippi State 85-48 on Friday and that's a Bulldogs team that had given them fits in two regular-season meetings. I just feel a motivated Crimson Tide team will have no problem taking down Tennessee in the Semifinals on Saturday.
The Vols did play well in yesterday's 78-66 win over Florida, but that's a Gators team that was a 1-man show with Tre Mann, scoring 30 of the teams 66 points. Alabama has a plethora of weapons that can really make life miserable on this Tennessee defense. I also don't trust this Vols offense against this Crimson Tide defense. Keep in mind Tennessee could only muster 63 points at home against Alabama earlier this season. As long as the Crimson Tide don't have an awful shooting game, I think they win this game by double-digits. Give me Alabama -4.5!
|03-12-21||Colorado -1.5 v. USC||72-70||Win||100||14 h 58 m||Show|
40* COLORADO/USC NCAAB LATE NIGHT BAILOUT (Colorado -1.5)
I think we are getting a great price here with Colorado as a mere 1.5-point favorite against USC in Friday's action out of the PAC-12 Tournament. This is just a really tough spot for the Trojans, who will be playing on no rest after last night's game against Utah went to double-overtime. USC had 3 different players play more than 40 mins and 5 guys who logged more than 30 minutes.
I just don't see the Trojans having enough gas in the tank against the Buffaloes. Colorado continued their strong play with a 61-58 win over Cal. The other big thing is how these two teams matchup. Buffaloes won both meetings in the regular-season by double-digits, winning 72-62 on the road and 80-62 at home. Give me Colorado -1.5!
|03-12-21||Wisconsin v. Iowa -4||57-62||Win||100||11 h 17 m||Show|
40* WISCONSIN/IOWA NCAAB ATS SLAUGHTER (Iowa -4)
I will gladly take my chances here with the Hawkeyes as a mere 4-point favorite in Friday's Quarterfinal matchup against Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament. The big concern here with Iowa is the healthy of Joe Wieskamp, but he's been seen in practice without a boot and I think there's a decent chance he plays.
Even if he can't go, I still like Iowa at this price. The Hawkeyes destroyed Wisconsin 77-62 on the road in the first meeting between the two and then won 77-73 at home in the regular-season finale. While the second meeting was much closer, Iowa did have a double-digit lead in the 2nd half of that game. Iowa is also the fresher team having a double-bye. Give me the Hawkeyes -4!
|03-12-21||North Carolina v. Florida State -2||Top||66-69||Win||100||11 h 59 m||Show|
50* N CAROLINA/FLORIDA ST *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Florida State -2)
I had Florida State as a small favorite yesterday against Duke before that game got called off due to a positive Covid test in the Blue Devils program. I feel like that only works in the Seminoles favor here, as they will be playing their first game of the ACC Tournament, while UNC is getting ready for their 3rd game in 3 days.
Tar Heels have been impressive in their first 2 games, beating Notre Dame 101-59 and Virginia Tech 81-73, but I look for them to run out of gas here against a hungry Florida State team that has not forgot about a late season loss at home to the Tar Heels. Give me the Seminoles -2!
|03-12-21||Rutgers v. Illinois -7||68-90||Win||100||9 h 6 m||Show|
40* ILLINOIS/RUTGERS NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Illinois -7)
I think we are getting a great price here with Illinois only laying 7-points against Rutgers. The Fighting Illini 11-1 over their final 12 games and really looked like a team on a mission the last couple of weeks of the regular-season.
As for Rutgers, they were able to beat Indiana 61-50 on Thursday, but that was more of just the Hoosiers being awful offensively than anything. Indiana didn't make a field goal over the final 9+ minutes of that game and were just 6-15 from the free throw line for the game. It covered up a pretty bad offensive game for the Scarlet Knights.
They just aren't going to get away with shooting as bad as they did against a team like Illinois, who can light it up offensively. I'm confident the Illini win here by double-digits. Give me Illinois -7!
|03-12-21||Ohio State v. Purdue +1.5||87-78||Loss||-110||5 h 42 m||Show|
40* PURDUE/OHIO STATE NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Purdue +1.5)
I like the value here with Purdue as a slim dog against the Buckeyes in Friday's Quarterfinal matchup in the Big Ten Tournament. Ohio State was able to hang on for a 79-75 win against Minnesota on Thursday, despite completely falling apart in the final few minutes of that game.
That's not a good sign for a team playing a depleted Minnesota team, as you really would have expected Ohio State to dominate that game, especially given how they lost their last 4 games in the regular-season.
Buckeyes just don't have a great inside presence on defense and that's a major problem against this Purdue team, which is led by 6-10 junior center Trevion Williams and 7-4 freshman Zach Edey. Those two were a big reason why the Boilermakers swept the 2-games against the Buckeyes in the regular-season. I just think the wrong team is favored, especially given how Purdue had a double-bye and Ohio State is playing on no rest. Give me the Boilermakers +1.5!
|03-11-21||South Carolina v. Ole Miss -7||59-76||Win||100||26 h 8 m||Show|
40* S CAROLINA/OLE MISS NCAAB ATS SLAUGHTER (Ole Miss -7)
I got no problem laying the 7 with Ole Miss against South Carolina in the SEC Tournament. The Rebels really came on strong in the 2nd half of the season. They went from sitting at 8-8 overall and 3-6 in SEC play to finishing the season 15-10 and 10-8 in league play.
They did only beat South Carolina by 7 in the only meeting between the two in the regular-season, but that was a bit of a misleading final, as they led by as many as 18 with just under 6 minutes to play.
Simply put, this is just not a very good Gamecocks team. They went just 1-8 in their final 9 games with the only win coming against a bad Georgia team. Their last 5 losses have been by 20 to Tennessee, by 15 to Missouri, by 21 to Miss St, by 28 to Alabama and by 28 to Kentucky. Give me Ole Miss -7!
|03-11-21||Penn State v. Wisconsin -5.5||74-75||Loss||-106||10 h 26 m||Show|
40* PENN ST/WISCONSIN NCAAB ATS KNOCKOUT (Wisconsin -5.5)
I really like the Badgers as a mere 5.5-point favorite against the Nittany Lions in Thursday's Second Round matchup with Penn State. I know Wisconsin stunk it up down the stretch, losing 5 of their last 6, but it's not as bad as it looks. They all came against the Top 4 teams in the Big Ten Standings in Iowa (2x), Michigan, Illinois and Purdue.
I think we are going to see a very motivated Wisconsin team here against a pretty average Penn State team. The Nittany Lions were able to pull off an impressive 72-66 win over Nebraska, but they had to rally from 15 down in that game. Having to use so much energy to fight back and now having to play on no rest, really makes this a difficult spot for Penn State, especially against a team like Wisconsin that wants to grind you into the ground. Give me the Badgers -5.5!
|03-11-21||Indiana v. Rutgers -2||50-61||Win||100||23 h 13 m||Show|
40* INDIANA/RUTGERS NCAAB ATS MASSACRE (Rutgers -2)
I like the value here with Rutgers as a slim 2-point favorite against Indiana in Thursday's Second Round matchup in the Big Ten Tournament. Having the Big Ten Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium would have been a big advantage for Indiana in most years, as it would have felt like a home game for them. But that's just not the case during Covid with little to no fans in attendance.
Without that, I just don't see the Hoosiers being able to pull off the small upset against the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers won both regular-season meetings, beating Indiana 74-70 on the road in the first matchup and 74-63 at home in the rematch.
Another big thing here is the healthy of this Hoosiers team. We know they won't have one of their top guards in Armaan Franklin. They could also be without starting power forward Race Thompson, who is questionable with an ankle injury. On top of all that, Rutgers has the bigs inside to make things really difficult on Indiana's best player Trayce Jackson-Davis. Give me Rutgers -2!
|03-11-21||Oregon State v. UCLA -4.5||83-79||Loss||-110||25 h 54 m||Show|
40* OREGON ST/UCLA NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (UCLA -4.5)
I'm going to take the UCLA Bruins -4.5 against the Oregon State Beavers in Thursday's Second Round matchup in the Pac-12 Tournament. I think we are a getting a big discount here with UCLA due to the fact that they closed out the regular-season on a 3-game losing streak.
Thing is, those 3 losses came against 3 really good teams in Colorado, Oregon and USC. Both games against the Buffaloes and Ducks were on the road and really should have beat the Trojans at home.
I'm confident because of how the season ended, we are going to get a max effort here from UCLA in their game against Oregon State. The Bruins did only beat the Beavers by a final of 57-52 at home in the only meeting between the two in the regular-season. However, UCLA couldn't have shot it any worse in that game. They only hit 32.7% from the field. No way they shoot that poorly again against Oregon State. It was also a tough spot, as they had a huge home game against two days prior get called off because of Covid.
Another reason this line might be a little lower than it should be, is the fact that Oregon State won 3 of their last 4, with all 3 wins coming on the road. However, those were against the likes of Cal, Stanford and Utah, none of which are on the same level as this UCLA team.
I'm also aware of the fact that Bruins star shooting guard Johnny Juzang is questionable with an ankle injury that kept him out of the USC game, but word is that he will be ready to go for this game. Even if he can't go, I still like UCLA to at this price. Give me the Bruins -4.5!
|03-11-21||Minnesota v. Ohio State -10.5||Top||75-79||Loss||-110||3 h 18 m||Show|
50* MINNESOTA/OHIO ST *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ohio State -10.5)
I got no problem laying the big number with Ohio State, as they get set to take on Minnesota in the Second Round of the Big Ten Tournament. The Gophers were able to find a way to knock off Northwestern on Wednesday, but it wasn't pretty. Minnesota scored just 51 points and shot just 36.7% from the field. If the Wildcats don't go scoreless over the final 4+ minutes they lose that game.
It was nothing new in terms of poor shooting by the Gophers. That's now 5 straight games where they have shot 37% or worse from the field. That kind of offense just isn't going to cut it against a very hungry and motivated Ohio State team that will be itching to take the floor after losing their final 4 Big Ten games to close out the regular-season.
Add in the rest edge the Buckeyes have with them getting a 1st Round bye and this has blowout written all over it. Give me Ohio State -10.5!
|03-11-21||Georgetown +9 v. Villanova||Top||72-71||Win||100||17 h 40 m||Show|
50* GTOWN/VILLANOVA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Georgetown +9)
We cashed in on the Hoyas +3.5 in yesterday's 68-49 thrashing of Marquette and will gladly fire back with Georgetown as a big dog against Villanova on Thursday. Typically I'm a little hesitant backing teams playing on no rest against a team that had a bye, but I just feel this is too good a price to pass up with the Hoyas.
The biggest thing here is Villanova is not anywhere close to full strength. They suffered a massive blow at the end of the regular-season, losing star senior point guard Collin Gillespie to a season ending injury. On top of that, they aren't expected to have sophomore guard Justin Moore, who would have been the one to fill in for Gillespie at the point.
I'm not saying Villanova can't win this game without those two, but I definitely think Georgetown has a really good shot of winning here. Give me the Hoyas +9!
|03-10-21||Nebraska +6.5 v. Penn State||66-72||Win||100||12 h 32 m||Show|
40* NEBRASKA/PENN ST NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Nebraska +6.5)
I really like the value here with Nebraska as a 6.5-point dog against the Nittany Lions. I just think there's a ton of value with this Cornhuskers team right now. Nebraska finished just 3-16 in Big Ten play a full 3 wins less than the next worst team.
However, the Cornhuskers really showed some big improvement down the stretch. They finally started to hit the 3-point shot and put up close to 77 ppg in their last 6 contests. On top of that, they nearly swept the season series with Penn State, beating the Nittany Lions on the road and losing by just 3 at home. I really think this line should be closer to 3 than 7 and I got a good feeling Nebraska wins this one outright. Give me the Cornhuskers +6.5!
|03-10-21||Notre Dame v. North Carolina -6.5||59-101||Win||100||11 h 14 m||Show|
40* NOTRE DAME/N CAROLINA NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (North Carolina -6.5)
I think we are getting a great price here with North Carolina as a 6.5-point favorite against Notre Dame. I was on the Irish yesterday and they let me down, beating an awful Wake Forest team 80-77 as a 8-point favorite. They were lucky just to win that game, as they trailed by as many as 16 in the 2nd half before eventually winning on a last second shot.
I just think the Irish had to use up a ton of energy to rally for that win against the Demon Deacons. That's a big problem with them having to play on no rest against a rested and motivated North Carolina team that really seemed to find their groove late in the year. I wouldn't be shocked if this ended up being a blowout early in favor of the Tar Heels. Give me North Carolina -6.5!
|03-10-21||Texas A&M +1.5 v. Vanderbilt||68-79||Loss||-113||9 h 17 m||Show|
40* TEXAS A&M/VANDERBILT NCAAB ATS NO-BRAINER (Texas A&M +1.5)
I will take a shot here with Texas A&M as a slim dog against Vandy in the opening round of the SEC Tournament. The Aggies are a team that are getting zero respect right now. A big reason for that is they only went 2-8 in SEC play. They also didn't play a single game in the month of February because of Covid and lost their first two games back.
While they did lose at home to Mississippi State and on the road to Arkansas, I was impressed with how well they played given the massive layoff. They could have easily won that game at home against the Bulldogs and led by as many as 14 in the 1st half in their loss to the Razorbacks.
Vandy is a team that went just 3-13 in SEC play and while they do have one of the better players in the SEC on the floor here in Scotty Pippen Jr., they lost their other stud late in the year in Dylan Disu. For a team that gave up 76.5 ppg in SEC play, I just don't think they have the scoring to advance to tomorrow. Give me the Aggies +1.5!
|03-10-21||Minnesota v. Northwestern -1.5||Top||51-46||Loss||-102||9 h 54 m||Show|
50* MINNESOTA/NORTHWESTERN *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Northwestern -1.5)
I will gladly take my chances here with Northwestern as a slim 1.5-point favorite against Minnesota in the Big Ten Tournament. The Wildcats surprised everyone when they started out 3-0 in Big Ten play, but then proceeded to lose their next 13 conference games before ending the year on a 3-game winning streak.
One of those wins was a 67-59 win on the road over these Gophers. I just don't see the outcome being much different. Minnesota completely fell apart in the 2nd half of this season. They were at one point sitting at 11-4 and ended up 13-14. They come in having lost 7 straight and its not a matter of if but when head coach Richard Pitino will be fired.
The biggest thing for Minnesota is they are really banged up. Two of their better players, Gabe Kalsheur and Liam Robbins are both out with injuries. They also could be without senior forward Brandon Johnson. Keep in mind this is a team that struggled to score even when healthy. They were also 0-10 away from home this season, losing by an average of 14.8 ppg. Give me Northwestern -1.5!
|03-09-21||Wake Forest v. Notre Dame -8||Top||77-80||Loss||-109||9 h 21 m||Show|
50* WAKE FOREST/NOTRE DAME *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Notre Dame -8)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Notre Dame laying single-digits against Wake Forest in the first round of the ACC Tournament. Nothing is a guarantee, but when you look at how bad the Demon Deacons have been and how these two teams matchup, a lot will have to wrong for the Irish to not win here by 10 or more.
Wake Forest closed out the regular-season with 6 straight losses by at least 12 points. They played about as well as they could in the regular-season finale (senior night) and still lost by 12 to Georgia Tech, who didn't have a lot to play for. Yellow Jackets also were just 4 of 13 from behind the 3-point line and still won by double-digits.
Notre Dame finished the year just 10-14 with a 7-11 mark in ACC play, but still come into this game ranked No. 67 in the country at KenPom. They played the 19th toughest schedule in the nation and were competitive in a lot of their losses. They also come in with some momentum after knocking off FSU 83-73 in the regular-season finale.
In the only meeting between these two teams this season, Notre Dame dominated Wake 79-58 and were up by as many as 28 with under 5 minutes to play. Irish should feast from behind the 3-point line, as they were No. 5 in 3-point shooting in ACC play and WF was dead last in defending the 3-pointer. Demon Deacons also foul a lot and ND as a team shoots 77% from the free throw line. Give me Notre Dame -8!
|03-08-21||St. Mary's +18 v. Gonzaga||Top||55-78||Loss||-107||12 h 43 m||Show|
50* ST. MARY'S/GONZAGA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (St. Mary's +18)
I'll take my chances here with St. Mary's at least being able to keep it close enough to cover as a 18-point dogs in the semifinals of Monday's WCC Tournament action. While Gonzaga swept the season series with the Gaels, both games St. Mary's was able to keep it very close to this number. They only lost by 14 in the first meeting at home and while they lost by 22 on the road in the rematch, it took the Bulldogs shooting 61.1% from the field to win by that margin.
You also have to keep in mind that while winning the WCC Tournament and preserving their perfect record going into the NCAA Tournament would be nice, it's not that big of a deal. Even if they were to somehow lose this game, they are still going to be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
I just think having not played now in 9 days and facing a desperate St. Mary's team that needs to win this tournament to get into the Big Dance, really increases the likelihood the Gaels came make a game of it. Give me St. Mary's +18!
|03-07-21||Penn State v. Maryland -5.5||66-61||Loss||-105||10 h 39 m||Show|
40* PENN ST/MARYLAND NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Maryland -5.5)
I will gladly take my chances here with Maryland as a 5.5-point home favorite against Penn State. I think the Terps are one of the more underrated teams in the country, in large part because the Big Ten is so loaded and they started out so slow. They also lost at Northwestern as a 4-point favorite in their last game, which I think is playing into the value here.
Thing is Maryland had won 5 straight before losing at Northwestern and that was really a game they should have won, as their defense once again was dominant, holding the Wildcats to just 36.4% shooting. That's now 6 straight games where they have held their opponent to 43% or worse from the field.
Penn State comes in off a big 84-65 home win over Minnesota, but the Gophers are arguably playing the worst basketball of any Big Ten team down the stretch. Prior to that win the Nittany Lions lost by 21 at home to Purdue. Their only other win besides Minnesota since early February is a mere 3-point win at Nebraska. Give me Maryland -5.5!
|03-07-21||Michigan v. Michigan State +8.5||Top||64-70||Win||100||7 h 12 m||Show|
50* MICH ST/MICHIGAN NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Michigan St +8.5)
I've been on the Spartans quite a bit down the stretch, as Tom Izzo once again has his squad playing their best basketball when it matters the most. I did however, stay away from Michigan State in Thursday's road game at rival Michigan. Even though the Spartans were getting double-digits, I didn't like the spot on the road against a Wolverines team that was coming off that embarrassing loss to Illinois.
It really set up a great spot and price to back Michigan State at home in the rematch with Michigan. While the Wolverines aren't just going to lay down against their rivals, this game definitely doesn't mean as much now that Michigan has wrapped up the Big Ten regular-season title. I also think cause they won that game on Thursday so easily, it makes it harder for them to get up for this rematch. Spartans desperately need a win here to boost their resume and I don't think it's out of the question that they pull off the upset. Either way I think this one goes right down to the wire. Give me Michigan State +8.5!
|03-07-21||Florida v. Tennessee -5.5||54-65||Win||100||3 h 32 m||Show|
40* FLORIDA/TENNESSEE NCAAB ATS KNOCKOUT (Tennessee -5.5)
I like the value here with the Volunteers as a 5.5-point home favorite against the Gators. Tennessee has struggled a bit here of late, losing 3 of their last 5, including a 72-77 loss at Auburn as a 8-point favorite in their last game. I just think it has the Vols a bit undervalued here in their home finale against a Florida team that has won 3 of their last 4, but are just 2-4 ATS in their last 6.
There's also a huge revenge factor here, as the Gators embarrassed Tennessee in Gainesville 75-49 earlier this season. Vols couldn't have shot it much worse in that one, as they hit a mere 29.3% from the field. Vols had won the previous 3 games in the series before that setback and are 16-5 SU in the last 21 at home against Florida. Give me Tennessee -5.5!
|03-06-21||Xavier v. Marquette -1.5||59-66||Win||100||23 h 49 m||Show|
40* XAVIER/MARQUETTE NCAAB LATE NIGHT BAILOUT (Marquette -1.5)
I think we are getting a great price here with the Golden Eagles as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Musketeers. I love the fact that Marquette comes in having won 3 of their last 4 with the only loss coming against maybe the most underrated team in the country in Connecticut.
The other huge thing here that I think a lot of people will overlook is the fact that Marquette has played their last 6 games on the road. I see the Golden Eagles being ecstatic to get back on their home floor and get their revenge against the Musketeers, who they barely lost to 88-91 on the road earlier this season. Speaking of close losses, 9 of Marquette's 13 losses have been by single digits.
As for Xavier, they are just 2-4 in their last 6 and yes one of those wins was a big upset at home against Creighton, but they have lost their last 3 on the road to the likes of Georgetown, Providence and St. John's. The Musketeers are also a banged up team right now. Give me Marquette -1.5!
|03-06-21||Illinois v. Ohio State -2||Top||73-68||Loss||-108||18 h 1 m||Show|
50* ILLINOIS/OHIO ST NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ohio St -2)
I can't help myself here. I'm loading up on the Buckeyes -2 at home against Illinois. I get that the Fighting Illini have played great in the 3 games without Ayo Dosunmu. They have won all 3 and the last two were road wins over Wisconsin by 5 and Michigan by 23. I just think after what they did to the Wolverines, it has them getting way too much respect here. They were a 8.5-point dog to Michigan and now are only a 2-point dog.
I think that Wolverines game was a result of Michigan just not taking Illinois seriously without Dosunmu. Thing is because of that game, that won't be the case here for Ohio State. Not that the Buckeyes were going to look past this game anyway. Ohio State is desperate to get things back on track after losing their last 3. I believe they not only win, but win going away. Give me the Buckeyes -2!
|03-06-21||USC -1 v. UCLA||64-63||Push||0||18 h 0 m||Show|
40* USC/UCLA NCAAB ATS NO-BRAINER (USC -1)
I think a lot of people are going to see UCLA as a home dog and instantly look to back the Bruins in this game. Not me. Going into last Saturday's game at Colorado, UCLA was in the drivers seat to win the Pac-12 regular-season title and get the No. 1 seed for the Pac-12 Tournament. Their path got harder following a 61-70 loss to Colorado on Saturday, but they still were in a great spot if they could beat Oregon on Wednesday.
It looked like they were going to do just that. They controlled most of the game and were up by as many as 9 with just over 11 minutes to play. Things went bad in a hurry as they were outscored 31-14 the rest of the way and lost 74-82.
I just think it's going to be really hard for UCLA to come out and be excited about this game given what's taken place the last week. Even if they were to win and Oregon somehow lost to Oregon State tomorrow, they still would lose out for the top spot because of a tie-breaker. USC on the other hand can win here and get the No. 1 seed with a Ducks loss, as they won the only meeting with Oregon. Give me USC -1!
|03-06-21||Alabama -8 v. Georgia||89-79||Win||100||16 h 48 m||Show|
40* ALABAMA/GEORGIA NCAAB ATS SLAUGHTER (Alabama -8)
I'm going to take a shot here with Alabama as a 8-point road favorite against Georgia on Saturday. While the Crimson Tide have won their last 2 and are locked into the No. 1 seed in the SEC Tournament, I don't see them looking past their regular-season finale. Head coach Nate Oats has made it clear he wants everyone to play and really wants to get his team going offensively after failing to score more than 70 in their last 3. They also know this is their last game for a week given the byes they will get in the SEC Tournament.
Getting their offense back on track against the Bulldogs doesn't figure to be a problem. The only team that ranks worse than Georgia in the SEC in defensive efficiency is Vanderbilt and in the previous meeting between these two teams back on Feb 13, Alabama scored 115 points in a 33-point blowout win. I just don't think you can play with the tempo Georgia wants to play at and be that bad defensively and expect to keep it close against this Crimson Tide team no matter the location. Give me Alabama -8!
|03-06-21||Rutgers -3 v. Minnesota||77-70||Win||100||14 h 22 m||Show|
40* MINNESOTA/RUTGERS NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Rutgers -3)
I will take my chances here with Rutgers -3 on the road against the Golden Gophers. I just think this Minnesota team is broken right now. The Gophers have went from being a team that was being projected as a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament to completely out of the picture. Minnesota has lost 6 straight coming into this game and there only hope now is to win the Big Ten Tournament next week.
This team has a horrific time scoring the basketball and are as banged up as any team in the Big Ten right now. I think if Rutgers wasn't just 2-4 in their last 6 and off an ugly 21-point loss at Nebraska, this line would be a lot higher. Two of the other other losses this stretch were at Iowa and Michigan.
The game definitely means more to the Scarlet Knights, as they are far from a lock to make the NCAA Tournament, something you know this program desperately wants given how long it's been. I just have a hard time not seeing Rutgers win this game. Give me the Scarlet Knights -3!
|03-05-21||Georgia Tech -8 v. Wake Forest||Top||75-63||Win||100||9 h 4 m||Show|
50* GA TECH/WAKE FOREST NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Georgia Tech -8)
I'll take my chances here with the Yellow Jackets as a 8-point road favorite against the Demon Deacons. These two teams are headed in complete opposite directions to close out the regular-season. Georgia Tech enters on a 5-game winning streak and have covered 6 in a row.
Wake Forest on the other hand has lost 6 straight and failed to cover 5 in a row. Demon Deacons haven't just been losing, they have been getting absolutely destroyed. All 5 losses during their 5-game skid have come by double-digits. They just have no offense to speak of. In these 5 straight losses they haven't shot better than 41% from the field and in their last 3 they have shot 36% or worse.
While the Yellow Jackets have secured a first round bye in the ACC Tournament, they still aren't a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. Simply put, this is not a game they can afford to lose. I just don't think it's asking much for Georgia Tech to win here by double-digits. Give me the Yellow Jackets -8!
|03-04-21||Texas v. Oklahoma -2||Top||69-65||Loss||-110||12 h 31 m||Show|
50* TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BIG 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH (Oklahoma -2)
I absolutely love this spot and price with the Sooners as a mere 2-point home favorite against the Longhorns. Oklahoma comes into this game having lost their last 3 with each of the last two being really close calls against rival Oklahoma State. To say the Sooners are going to be motivated for their regular-season finale at home is an understatement.
Texas is also a team that I think is a bit overvalued. The Longhorns have gone just 5-6 since opening the season 10-1 and 4 of those 5 wins have come against Kansas St (2x), TCU and Iowa State. Those 3 teams are a combined 8-39 in Big 12 play. They did beat Kansas 75-72 at home, but needed OT and trailed by as many as 14 in that contest. Give me the Sooners -2!
|03-03-21||Boston College +19 v. Florida State||Top||64-93||Loss||-110||11 h 1 m||Show|
50* BOSTON COLLEGE/FLORIDA ST NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Boston College +19)
I think we are getting a gift here with Boston College as a massive 19-point dog in Wednesday's game at Florida State. There's no question that the Seminoles are the better team and yes they need to win this game to stay on track to win the ACC regular-season title, but I just think it's asking a lot for them to win here by 20+ points.
Boston College comes in with a mere 2-9 record in ACC play and are just 4-13 overall. The thing is, the Eagles just recently fired head coach Jim Christian and it was pretty clear that the players had given up on Christian a while ago. All you got to do is look back at some of their games and how they played and compare that to Saturday's performance in their 94-90 win against Notre Dame in the first game under interim head coach Scott Spinelli. It was like a different team took the floor in that game for BC. I think that effort/energy carries over to this game against FSU and if the Seminoles don't take the Eagles seriously, this could be a lot closer than expected. Give me Boston College +19!
|03-03-21||Mississippi State -5 v. Texas A&M||63-57||Win||100||11 h 30 m||Show|
40* MISS ST/TEXAS A&M NCAAB NO-BRAINER (Mississippi State -5)
I got no problem laying the 5-points on the road with Mississippi State, as they visit College Station to take on Texas A&M. I like the fact that the Bulldogs will be out for revenge from a 1-point home loss to the Aggies back in January, but that's a small factor in this one.
This is 100% a play against Texas A&M given the circumstances. The Aggies didn't play a single game in the month of February, as they last took the floor against Kansas State way back on Jan. 30th. It's just near impossible for Texas A&M to come out and play well in this game after more than 30 days of no game action. Give me Mississippi State -5!
|03-03-21||Providence v. St. John's -1.5||67-81||Win||100||28 h 41 m||Show|
40* PROVIDENCE/ST JOHN'S NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (St. John's -1.5)
I'm going to take the St. John's Red Storm -1.5 at home against the Providence Friars. I just think this is a great spot to sell high on Providence and buy low on the Red Storm.
St. John's comes into this game having lost 3 of their last 4, but could have easily gone 3-1 in this stretch, as 2 of the 3 losses were by 4 or fewer. The one that really sticks out is their most recent, which was a 58-81 thrashing on the road at the hands of Villanova.
Prior to losing 3 of 4, the Red Storm had won 6 straight, which included road wins over UConn, Marquette and Providence, so they aren't that far removed from playing really good basketball.
Not only do I like the fact that St. John's was able to beat the Friars on the road, but I also love that they have been sitting on that loss to Villanova for a week now. I full expect this team to be 100% locked in when they take the floor at Carnesecca Arena Wednesday night.
Providence has won 3 of 4, but two of those are nothing to get excited about. One was a win over UConn without their best player in James Bouknight and another was against a Depaul team that has lost 7 of 8. They did just beat Xavier by 15 at home in their most recent game, which looks really good, but that was a result of them shooting lights out.
Friars shot 54% from the field, including 11 of 21 from deep. This is a team that had shot better than 43% just once in their previous 8 games. They have also shot just 42.7% from the field in road games this season.
St. John's is a very strong 9-3 at home this season and have been a great team to back at home over the last couple of years, going 19-10 ATS on their home floor the last 2 seasons. They are also great in this spot off a big loss, as they have covered 8 of their last 9 at home off a conference loss by 10 or more.
They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS at home this season against teams like Providence who don't force many turnovers, averaging 14 or fewer turnovers/game. Friars are also 1-8 ATS last 9 games vs up-tempo teams who average 62 or more shots/game. St. John's averages 65 and play at the fastest tempo of any team in the Big East and rank 12th nationally in pace of play. Give me the Red Storm -1.5!
|03-02-21||Kentucky v. Ole Miss -3||Top||62-70||Win||100||10 h 3 m||Show|
50* KENTUCKY/OLE MISS NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ole Miss -3)
I love the value here with Ole Miss as a mere 3-point home favorite against Kentucky. Lot of people might be hesitant to back the Rebels after watching them lose outright at Vandy on Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite, especially given the Commodores were down their two best players.
Thing is, the Rebels really didn't have much to play for. Even though Ole Miss had won 5 of 6 coming into that game, they know their only path to the NCAA Tournament is to win the SEC Tournament. Makes it pretty easy for them to struggle to show up with the right kind of mindset against a bad Vandy team that didn't figure to put up a fight without their two best players.
I expect to see a completely different Ole Miss team when they take the floor here against Kentucky. I know the Wildcats have played better of late, but this is just not their season. Books have also continued to overvalue this team. Kentucky is just 3-9 ATS in their last 12. Give me Ole Miss -3!
|03-02-21||Duke v. Georgia Tech -1.5||77-81||Win||100||9 h 2 m||Show|
40* DUKE/GA TECH NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Georgia Tech -1.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Yellow Jackets as a slim 1.5-point home favorite against Duke. The Blue Devils have been playing better here of late and all the talk right now is what Duke has to do to make the NCAA Tournament. I'm not denying that the Blue Devils are playing better, I just think it has them overvalued here against the Yellow Jackets.
Georgia Tech is one of the better teams in the ACC that people don't know about. The Yellow Jackets are just 9-6 in league play, but could be much better as they have had a number of games not go their way late in games. They have figured out how to close games out here of late, as they come in having won 4 straight. One of those games they felt like they should have won that they didn't was a 68-75 loss at Duke earlier this season. No way they have forgot about that loss. Yellow Jackets are also 12-3 ATS last 15 at home after 2 straight games where they made 50% or more of their shots and a perfect 7-0 ATS last 3 seasons when they come in having won 3 or more games in a row. Give me Georgia Tech -1.5!
|03-02-21||Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh -4.5||57-70||Win||100||7 h 3 m||Show|
40* WAKE FOREST/PITT NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Pittsburgh -4.5)
I will gladly take my chances here with Pitt as a slim 4.5-point home favorite against Wake Forest. I know the Panthers have had a couple of key guys decide to leave the team via the transfer portal, but it's not as bad as it might look. Pitt comes in having lost 5 straight and 8 of their last 9, but could easily have a winning record during this stretch. Of those 8 losses, 7 have come by 10 or fewer with 3 of them by 3 or fewer.
I just think that this team has been so close that they are going to show up here and take care of business against the Demon Deacons. I don't even know if they need their best showing to win and cover here. Wake Forest has lost 5 straight and have struggled to even keep games close. In their last 4 games they have lost by 24 at home to Duke, by 18 at home to NC State, by 21 at home to Clemson and by 38 at Virginia Tech. Give me Pittsburgh -4.5!
|03-01-21||Oklahoma -1.5 v. Oklahoma State||75-79||Loss||-110||11 h 52 m||Show|
40* OKLAHOMA/OKLAHOMA ST NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Oklahoma -1.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Sooners as a 1.5-point road favorite against the Cowboys. This line smells something awful. Oklahoma just lost at home to Oklahoma State 90-94 in OT on Saturday. That's now back-to-back losses for the Sooners, while the Cowboys have won 4 straight.
The betting public won't be able to help themselves here with Oklahoma State as a home dog. When it looks like the wrong team is favored, especially this late in the year, in a game of this magnitude, you got to look the other way. That's exactly what I'm doing. I still think the Sooners are the better team. Keep in mind it took a career-high 40 points from freshman Cade Cunningham for the Cowboys to get that win in Norman on Saturday.
Oklahoma State is also a mere 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games when off 2 or more consecutive wins and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 if off 3 or more consecutive wins. Sooners are 11-3 ATS last 14 on the road when playing a good team that's won 60% to 80% of their games. Give me Oklahoma -1.5!
|02-28-21||Michigan State v. Maryland -2.5||55-73||Win||100||6 h 41 m||Show|
40* MICHIGAN ST/MARYLAND NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Maryland -2.5)
I think we are getting big time value here with the Terps as a small home favorite against the Spartans. Michigan State has made quite a statement over their last 3 games, beating Indiana on the road before knocking off Illinois and Ohio State at home. No question Tom Izzo has this team playing better, but this is the Big Ten we are talking about.
Winning on the road in this conference is extremely difficult. I think all the talk coming into this game will be about how good the Spartans are playing. I don't think it will sit well with a Maryland team that has won 4 straight and are 8-4 in their last 12 overall. I just feel laying less than 3 points at home with the Terps is too good to pass up. Give me Maryland -2.5!
|02-27-21||Alabama -5.5 v. Mississippi State||64-59||Loss||-110||9 h 5 m||Show|
40* ALABAMA/MISS ST NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Alabama -5.5)
I know this is going to be a big public play, but if there's one team in the SEC that I will go down swinging with it's Alabama, especially when the Crimson Tide are coming off a loss like they are here. Alabama played about as poorly as they could in Wednesday's 66-81 setback to Arkansas.
I'm confident Nate Oats will have this team ready to go on Saturday at Mississippi State. A team they can beat with ease if they show up with the right mindset. I just don't see the Bulldogs being able to keep pace offensively. Alabama is scoring 83.4 ppg in SEC play and Mississippi State averages a mere 66.9 ppg in conference games. Give me the Crimson Tide -5.5!
|02-27-21||Florida State v. North Carolina +3.5||Top||70-78||Win||100||7 h 10 m||Show|
50* FLORIDA ST/N CAROLINA NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (North Carolina +3.5)
I really like North Carolina as a 3.5-point home dog against Florida State. I think we are getting exceptional value with the Tar Heels because of the fact that they come into this game off an ugly loss at home to Marquette, losing by 13 as a 9.5-point favorite. While I didn't think they would lose, that wasn't a surprising result for me (I was on Marquette), as I thought that was a trap game for UNC off that huge 99-54 win against Louisville and having this huge game against FSU on deck.
Florida State is a really good team and are currently 2-games in front in the ACC standings over Virginia, but I don't know that the Seminoles are elite. I think they are getting a little too much love in this spot. North Carolina is a team that has gotten better and better as the season has went on and simply put this game means a lot more to them than it does the Seminoles. UNC also has proven they can hang with FSU, as they lost by just 7 on the road earlier this season. Give me the Tar Heels +3.5!
|02-27-21||Illinois v. Wisconsin -4||74-69||Loss||-110||5 h 18 m||Show|
40* ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Wisconsin -4)
No way am I passing up a play on Wisconsin as a mere 4-point home favorite against Illinois with the Fighting Illini down not just their best player but one of the best players in the country in Ayo Dosunmu. I get Illinois destroyed Nebraska by 16 without Dosunmu on Thursday, but that's Nebraska. Most of the top Big Ten teams could beat the Cornhuskers by double-digits on their home floor without their best player.
Not only that, but the Fighting Illini are playing this game at Wisconsin on just 1 day of rest and as good as the Badgers are, it will be hard for Illinois to not look ahead to Tuesday's huge road game at Michigan. As for Wisconsin, they really need a win here after going just 4-5 in their last 9. They will definitely be the fresher team, as they have been off since Sunday. I think it all adds up to not just a win but an easy win for the Badgers. Give me Wisconsin -4!
|02-26-21||North Texas v. Marshall -3.5||77-65||Loss||-110||9 h 59 m||Show|
40* N TEXAS/MARSHALL NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Marshall -3.5)
I will gladly lay the 3.5-points at home with Marshall on Friday as they get ready to host Nort Texas. The Mean Green come in tied with WKU for the best record in C-USA at 8-2, but it's a bit misleading. North Texas has only played 2 games to this point against the Top 5 teams in the conference (N Texas, WKU, La Tech, UAB and Marshall). Those both coming against LA Tech at home. They lost the first game to the Bulldogs and barely won the second by a final of 57-55.
Simply put I think the Mean Green are way overvalued in what will easily be their toughest road challenge since playing 3 on the road in non-conference against Arkansas, Miss St and W Virginia. Marshall has won 6 of their 8 home games with the only setback at home in conference play against what I think is the best team in C-USA in WKU (only lost by 2). Give me the Thundering Herd -3.5!
|02-25-21||Ohio State v. Michigan State +4||67-71||Win||100||11 h 43 m||Show|
40* OHIO ST/MICHIGAN ST NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Michigan St +4)
I will take a shot here with Michigan State as a 4-point home dog against Ohio State. You always expect a Tom Izzo coached team to progress as the season goes on and it feels like this Spartans team has turned a big corner in the last week.
It started on Saturday when they went on the road and beat Indiana 78-71 as a 6.5-point road dog. They followed that up with an even more impressive win, beating Illinois 81-72 as a 8.5-point home dog. There will be no letdown or taking the foot off the gas, as Michigan State needs this game to really improve their chances at an NCAA Tournament bid.
Most will see this as a big bounce back game for Ohio State after having their 7-game winning streak snapped in Sunday's 87-92 loss to Michigan. I'm not sold on that being the case. That was such a huge game against the Wolverines. I actually think they could come out flat here. Keep in mind they got two massive games on deck to close out Big Ten play at home against Iowa and Illinois.
Buckeyes will also be short-handed in this game. Starting power forward Kyle Young is out with a concussion. They could also be without key reserve Musa Jallow, who is questionable after missing their last game with an ankle injury. Give me the Spartans +4!
|02-25-21||Western Kentucky +12 v. Houston||57-81||Loss||-110||9 h 57 m||Show|
40* W KENTUCKY/HOUSTON NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (WKU +12)
I really like the value here with the Hilltoppers as a 12-point road dog against No. 12 Houston. We cashed in a very similar spot last night with Marquette as a 9.5-point dog at North Carolina. The Golden Eagles not only covered, they won the game outright 83-70.
Playing out of conference this late in the year is a bit challenging and I think it's more so for a team like Houston, who doesn't have a whole lot to prove right now. Cougars also have to be feeling themselves a little bit after absolutely destroying Cincinnati 90-52 in their last game.
This game means so much more to a team like Western Kentucky and you can bet they aren't too happy about how big a dog they are in this game. That's only going to light the fire that much more for the Hilltoppers. Not like we haven't seek WKU show out against top tier teams, as they only lost by 6 to West Virginia on a neutral floor back in November and won at Alabama 73-71 in mid-December. Give me the Hilltoppers +12!
|02-24-21||Tennessee v. Vanderbilt +8||70-58||Loss||-108||10 h 19 m||Show|
40* TENNESSEE/VANDERBILT NCAAB ATS ANNIHILATOR (Vanderbilt +8)
I'm willing to take a shot here with the Commodores as a near double-digit home dog against the Volunteers. Vanderbilt comes into this game a mere 6-12 overall and 2-10 in SEC play, but if you look closely you will see that the Commodores haven't been playing as bad as their record would indicate. Out of their 10 losses in SEC play, 7 have come by 7 points or fewer, which includes each of their last 5 conference losses. They just lost by a mere 4-points at Alabama in their last game, who is by far the best team in the league.
Tennessee did beat Vandy by 20 at home earlier this year, but the Vols aren't playing at near the same level now as they were when they faced off in mid January. Tennessee just lost at home to Kentucky 70-55 in their last game. Any time a good team like the Vols are off a bad loss and playing a bad team, public loves to back them and it creates value on the other side. Give me Vanderbilt +8!
|02-24-21||Indiana v. Rutgers -3||63-74||Win||100||29 h 9 m||Show|
40* RUTGERS/INDIANA NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Rutgers -3)
I'm going to take the Rutgers Scarlet Knights -3 at home against the Indiana Hoosiers. I think this is a great buy low spot on Rutgers, who comes in having lost 3 of their last 4. While two of those were road games at Iowa and Michigan, the most recent was a 59-68 setback at home to Maryland as a 5-point favorite.
That's the game the betting public will have trouble looking past and I believe why we are getting such a great price in this matchup. Big thing to note with the bad showing against the Terps is it did come on just 2 days of rest after really laying it all on the line against Michigan the game before.
While Rutgers hasn't been as dominant at home as they were last season, they are a very respectable 9-4 at the Athletic Center and prior to the loss to Maryland the other 3 home losses were all to teams ranked in the Top 15 at KenPom in Iowa, Ohio State and Wisconsin. Last two times they have hosted Indiana they have come away with easy wins. Last year they beat the Hoosiers 59-50 and the year before won 66-58.
As you can see Rutgers defense really made life miserable on Indiana's offense and I think we are going to see that trend continue. Scarlet Knights are only giving up 66.9 ppg on 41.1% shooting at home this year and the Hoosiers are far from a great offensive team. While Indiana does average 70.3 ppg on the road, they have shot just 43% from the field in those games and those ppg numbers are a bit skewed because of the fact that they have played 5 OT periods on the road this year.
I just don't see the Hoosiers being able to keep pace in this one and I think we are getting a solid 2-3 points in value on the number here. Give me Rutgers -3!
|02-24-21||Marquette +9.5 v. North Carolina||83-70||Win||100||8 h 28 m||Show|
40* MARQUETTE/N CAROLINA NCAAB ATS SLAUGHTER (Marquette +9.5)
I really like the value here with Marquette as a 9.5-point road dog against the Tar Heels. I just think we are getting exceptional value with the Golden Eagles, who are just 2-6 in their last 8 games. What I like with Marquette is they are coming off one of their best games, beating Butler 73-57 last Wednesday and will be chomping at the bit having had a full week off.
As for the Tar Heels, we are seeing them way overvalued in this game after their 99-54 thrashing of Louisville on Saturday. Thing to keep in mind is that was an awful spot for the Cardinals playing their first game in nearly 20 days.
I also don't love the spot for UNC with a massive home game on deck against ACC front-runner Florida State. Not saying the Tar Heels won't win, but I think they are sloppy enough to let Marquette hand around and keep it within the number. Give me the Golden Eagles +9.5!
|02-23-21||Ole Miss v. Missouri -3||Top||60-53||Loss||-110||11 h 9 m||Show|
50* OLE MISS/MISSOURI NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Missouri -3)
I love the value here with Missouri as a mere 3-point home favorite against Ole Miss. Missouri got back big man Jeremiah Tilmon after he had missed the last two and it resulted in an easy 93-78 win at South Carolina as a mere 4-point favorite. I think the books are still undervaluing the Tigers here at home against the Rebels.
Part of the reason for the value here is the fact that Ole Miss beat Missouri 80-59 at home recently on Feb. 10th. What gets overlooked in that outcome is the fact that the Tigers were in a huge letdown spot coming off two hard fought wins at home over Kentucky (75-70) and Alabama (68-65). There will be no overlooking the Rebels in the rematch at home. Give me Missouri -3!
|02-23-21||Kansas v. Texas -2.5||72-75||Win||100||11 h 8 m||Show|
40* KANSAS/TEXAS NCAAB ATS NO-BRAINER (Texas -2.5)
I like the value here with the Longhorns as a 2.5-point home favorite against the Jayhawks. Texas has to be chomping at the bit here to get back on the floor after blowing a 19-point 2nd half lead in Saturday's 82-84 loss at home to West Virginia.
I also think we are getting value here because of the fact that Kansas comes in having won 5 straight with the most recent being a big 67-61 win at home over Texas Tech. Thing is the only two games on the road during this 5-game winning streak were at ISU and K-State, the two worst teams in the Big 12. Prior to those 2 road wins, Kansas had dropped 5 straight away from home in Big 12 play. Jayhawks also lost 59-84 at home to Texas earlier this season, so we know the Longhorns matchup well here. Give me Texas -2.5!
|02-23-21||Florida v. Auburn -1||74-57||Loss||-109||9 h 9 m||Show|
40* FLORIDA/AUBURN NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Auburn -1)
I like the value here with Auburn as a mere 1-point home favorite against Florida. It's been a rough go here of late for the Tigers, who have lost 5 of their last 6, but 3 of those defeats could have easily went the other way.
I just think their ability to put up a big number here offensively will propel them to a win. Auburn is averaging 81.3 ppg at home and will be facing a Florida defense that gives up 76.8 ppg on the road. The Tigers are also much better defensively at home than on the road and will be facing a Gators team that is shooting just 44% as a team in their last 5. Give me Auburn -1!
|02-23-21||Notre Dame v. Louisville -4||57-69||Win||100||9 h 8 m||Show|
40* NOTRE DAME/LOUISVILLE NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Louisville -4)
I'm willing to take a shot here with Louisville as a mere 4-point home favorite against Notre Dame. We played against the Cardinals at UNC on Saturday and won easily, as the Tar Heels cruised to a 99-54 win.
I just hated that spot for Louisville playing on the road against a red-hot Tar Heels team after not having played a game in almost 20 days. I expect a much better showing out of the Cardinals here at home, where they are 8-1 on the season. It's also not a great spot here for Notre Dame, who is off a loss at Syracuse on Saturday and back on the road after just 2 days off.
Cardinals have really responded well to an ugly loss, as they are a perfect 6-0 ATS last 2 seasons off a loss by 10 or more. Give me Louisville -4!
|02-22-21||Syracuse v. Duke -5||71-85||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
40* SYRACUSE/DUKE NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Duke -5)
I will gladly lay the 5-points at home with Duke against Syracuse. I've mentioned this quite a bit, the Orange are simply a team that you need to look to back at home and fade on the road. It's why I unloaded on Syracuse with a 50* Top Play as a small home favorite against ND on Saturday (won 75-67) and will now instantly fade them on the road against the Blue Devils. Syracuse is 11-1 at home compared to just 2-5 on the road. The offense takes a dip on the road as expected, but the defense really regressess.
Duke is also a team I want to be on right now. Blue Devils have won and covered 3 straight and are a team on a mission as they try to finish strong and make a case for a NCAA Tournament bid. Duke has got their offense going with 5 straight games shooting 50% or better from the field. I just don't see Syracuse's defense being able to hold up. Give me the Blue Devils -5!
|02-21-21||Penn State +11.5 v. Iowa||68-74||Win||100||8 h 43 m||Show|
40* PENN ST/IOWA NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Penn St +11.5)
I think there's some pretty good value here with the Nittany Lions as a double-digit road dog against the Hawkeyes. Iowa comes in having won and covered 3 straight and I just feel it has them laying a few too many points in a really tough spot.
The Hawkeyes are fresh off a huge 77-62 road win at Wisconsin on Thursday and will have a really tough time here not looking ahead to their next game against Big Ten leader Michigan. Not saying they won't win at home here, but Penn State is not going to go down without a fight and if they can hit shots they will be in this thing right down to the wire. Give me the Nittany Lions +11.5!
|02-21-21||Davidson v. St Bonaventure -5||Top||58-69||Win||100||7 h 33 m||Show|
50* ST. BONAVENTURE/DAVIDSON *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (St Bonaventure -5)
I think we are getting a great price here to back the Bonnies as a mere 5-point home favorite against Davidson. Good spot to jump on St Bonaventure, who will be motivated here after losing last time out at VCU, especially given they haven't got a chance to play in 8 days. Bonnies are a perfect 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS at home this season. They have also won every game at home in A-10 play by at least 13 points, including a 70-54 win over VCU as a mere 3-point favorite.
Davidson comes in having won 5 in a row, but their only game since Jan 24th is a cupcake game against a non-DI school in Southern Virginia, which they won 101-51. This basically the first real test the Wildcats will have had in almost a month and it's on the road against one of the best teams in the conference. Give me St Bonaventure -5!
|02-20-21||Louisville v. North Carolina -5.5||54-99||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
40* LOUISVILLE/N CAROLINA NCAAB STEAMROLLER (North Carolina -5.5)
I was ready to lay the short number at home with Louisville on Wednesday against Syracuse, but that game got postponed because of more Covid problems for the Cardinals. It's unclear who will be available for Louisville in this one and I just feel the value is with the Tar Heels at home.
North Carolina has been playing much better after a sluggish start to the year. Tar Heels are 8-3 since starting out 5-4. They are also a perfect 7-0 on their home floor this season. Louisville is just 3-3 on the road and are scoring just 64.5 ppg away from home. UNC averages 78.1 ppg at home. I don't see the Cardinals keeping up in this one. Give me UNC -5.5!
|02-20-21||Purdue v. Nebraska +7||75-58||Loss||-104||9 h 3 m||Show|
40* PURDUE/NEBRASKA NCAAB ATS SLAUGHTER (Nebraska +7)
I'm willing to take a shot here with Nebraska as a 7-point home dog against Purdue. The Cornhuskers are just 1-11 in Big Ten play and are easily considered the worst team in the league. Thing is they have been playing much better here of late. Nebraska is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games and the one game they didn't cover as a 10-point dog at Maryland they should have, as they completely fell apart in the final minutes of that game allowing the Terps to go on a late 13-2 run.
Thing is, Nebraska is considered to be such a bad team that even though their recent play suggests this is a team to back, the betting public just can't do it. I not only think they can cover the big number against the Boilermakers, I wouldn't be surprised at all if they won this game outright. Give me the Cornhuskers +7!
|02-20-21||Auburn v. LSU -4||80-104||Win||100||8 h 34 m||Show|
40* AUBURN/LSU NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (LSU -4)
I will gladly lay the 4-points at home with LSU as they host Auburn. The Tigers have won 2 straight since dropping 4 of 5 and are fresh off a huge 78-65 home win over Tennessee. The good thing is that big upset win came last Saturday, so there's no concern here with a letdown.
While LSU is surging, Auburn has really fallen off of late. The Tigers are just 1-4 in their last 5 games and have played just 1 game in the last 10 days. Not to mention the only win during this poor run is a mere 6-point win over bottom-feeder Vanderbilt. Auburn is 2-10 ATS last 12 on the road after a game where they failed to cover and 1-9 ATS last 10 on the road after an upset loss as a road favorite. Give me LSU -4!
|02-20-21||Notre Dame v. Syracuse -2.5||Top||67-75||Win||100||6 h 39 m||Show|
50* NOTRE DAME/SYRACUSE NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Syracuse -2.5)
I love the Orange as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against Notre Dame today. Syracuse is just one of those teams you want to back at home and look to fade on the road. The Orange are 10-1 at the Carrier Dome, compared to 2-5 on the road. I also like that we have a very fresh and motivated Syracuse team in this one, as they haven't played in a week after Wednesday's game against Louisville was postponed.
Also, I feel the value here is stemming from the fact that the Irish enter this game having won 2 straight and 6 of 8 overall. I just feel their recent run is more a result of the schedule being easy than it is this team is any good. Give me Syracuse -2.5!
|02-20-21||Missouri v. South Carolina +3.5||93-78||Loss||-110||6 h 36 m||Show|
40* MISSOURI/S CAROLINA NCAAB SHARP STAKE (South Carolina +3.5)
I'll take a shot here with South Carolina as a home dog against the Tigers. This line screams take the Gamecocks. Everyone is going to be on a ranked Missouri team here against a South Carolina team that has lost 4 straight, including each of their last 3 at home.
Thing is the Tigers aren't exactly in prime form right now. Missouri has dropped their last 3 games and are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7. It's a great spot here to back the Gamecocks off that ugly 20-point loss to Tennessee (73-93) on Wednesday. South Carolina is 11-2 ATS last 13 off a conference loss by 10 or more and 6-0 ATS last 6 after giving up 90 or more in their last game. Give me the Gamecocks +3.5!
|02-18-21||Rutgers +9 v. Michigan||64-71||Win||100||12 h 45 m||Show|
40* RUTGERS/MICHIGAN NCAAB ATS NO-BRAINER (Rutgers +9)
I'm willing to take a shot here with the Scarlet Knights at +9 on the road against Michigan. I think we saw the books discount the Wolverines a little bit in their last game against Wisconsin, which was their first game back after more than 3 weeks off. While it took a huge 2nd half comeback, the betting public is only concerned about the final result, which ended in a 67-59 win.
I think it has them a bit overvalued here at home now against Rutgers, one of the hottest teams in the league. Scarlet Knights are 5-1 in their last 6 games. They also desperately need this game to really help out their NCAA Tournament resume.
As for Michigan, they are sitting pretty right now. I think coming off that big comeback win over Wisconsin and a massive game on deck against No. 4 Ohio State, who also is their biggest rival, makes this a perfect play against spot. Give me Rutgers +9!
|02-18-21||Utah v. Oregon State +2.5||Top||56-74||Win||100||11 h 18 m||Show|
50* UTAH/OREGON ST NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Oregon State +2.5)
I love the value here with Oregon State as a home dog against the Utes. This is a perfect buy low spot on the Beavers, who come in having lost 3 straight. Thing is, those 3 losses all came on the road. The first two were against two of the best teams in the Pac-12 in Colorado and Arizona. The other was a mere 2-point loss at Arizona State on just 2 days of rest.
Prior to this stretch the Beavers had won 5 of 7 and the only 2 losses during this stretch were road games at USC and UCLA. Oregon State has won 7 of their last 9 at home and I just don't think they should be a dog here. Utah has won 3 of 4, but just lost at Stanford 66-73. This will also be the Utes 3rd straight road game and 6th out of their last 7 away from home.
Utah is also dealing with some key injuries right now. The Utes recently lost big man Mikael Jantunen and one of their top guards, Rylan Jones, is questionable with a arm injury that has kept him out of their last two games. Give me Oregon State +2.5!
|02-18-21||Ohio State v. Penn State +4.5||92-82||Loss||-108||11 h 40 m||Show|
40* OHIO ST/PENN ST NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Penn State +4.5)
I will take my chances with the Nittany Lions as a 4.5-point home dog against the Buckeyes. I just feel like this is a great spot to back Penn State, who is way undervalued after just losing at home to Nebraska as a double-digit favorite in their last game.
The Nittany Lions had won their 4 previous home games before that shocking loss and it's almost like they took the Cornhuskers lightly. They won't take No. 4 ranked Ohio State lightly. A team they know they can hang with, as they only lost by 4 on the road to the Buckeyes earlier this season.
Another huge factor here is the spot for Ohio State. This could be a really tough game for them to bring their "A" game. Buckeyes come in having won 6 straight and just crushed Indiana by 19 in their last game. Easy for them to not give their full attention to a struggling Penn State team with a massive game on deck Sunday at home against Michigan. Give me the Nittany Lions +4.5!
|02-17-21||Minnesota v. Indiana -4.5||72-82||Win||100||28 h 10 m||Show|
40* MINNESOTA/INDIANA NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Indiana -4.5)
I'm going to take the Indiana Hoosiers -4.5 at home against the Minnesota Golden Gophers. This is just too good a price for me to pass up with Indiana. To say the Gophers have been awful on the road this year would be putting it nicely. Minnesota has played 7 road games and lost all 7. Everyone of those coming in Big Ten play.
It's not just the inability for the Gophers to win on the road, they struggle to simply keep games close. Of those 7 road losses, 6 have come by double-digits. A big reason for that is their offense can't score. Minnesota averages a respectable 75 ppg on the season, but only 63.6 ppg on the road.
Gophers are also the worst 3-point shooting team in the Big Ten, which plays right into the strength of this Indiana defense. The one thing that Minnesota's offense does well is rack up offensive rebounds. They are No. 2 in the Big Ten in that department. That figures to be negated some here, as Indiana is 4th best in the Big Ten at keeping opponents off the offensive glass.
It's not just the offense that goes missing for the Gophers away from home. They are giving up a staggering 80.0 ppg on the road. Not to mention only Iowa and Northwestern have a worse defensive efficiency in the Big Ten. Look for the Hoosiers to get a lot of easy looks and rack up a big edge at the free throw line. Indiana is No. 1 in the Big Ten in free throw rate and Minnesota is No. 12 in the conference in terms of sending opponents to the free throw line. I just don't think 4.5 is enough, as I would make this closer to 6-7 point spread. Give me the Hoosiers -4.5!
|02-16-21||Nebraska v. Maryland -10||50-64||Win||100||9 h 45 m||Show|
40* NEBRASKA/MARYLAND NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Maryland -10)
I will take another shot at fading the Cornhuskers on the road. I played on Penn State -11 at home against Nebraska on Sunday and was shocked to see the Cornhuskers not only cover but win the game 62-61. That's not going to keep me from taking Maryland here.
Clearly getting that elusive win in Big Ten play was a big deal for Nebraska. They were winless at 0-9 in conference games going into that contest and had lost 26 conference games in a row dating back to last year. They also snapped a 24-game road losing streak.
The fact that they got that win only makes me like the Terps more, as I see Nebraska having a big letdown in this game. Not only is this game less of a big deal since they got that elusive win, but it's also their 3rd game since playing an OT game against Illinois on Friday and their 4th game in the last week. Not to mention their second straight on the road with just 1 day of rest. Give me Maryland -10!
|02-15-21||Virginia v. Florida State -1||60-81||Win||100||9 h 54 m||Show|
40* VIRGINIA/FLORIDA ST NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Florida State -1)
I'm confident we will cash a winner here with Florida State at basically a pick'em at home against Virginia. I wasn't surprised to see the Seminoles struggle a bit with Wake Forest on Saturday, as that was their first game in almost 2 weeks. The important thing is they found a way to win in OT and now will be 100% locked in for this game against the Cavaliers.
Considering the fact that Florida State has won 23 straight conference home games, that's really enough for me to back the Seminoles at this price at home. I know Virginia is 5-1 in ACC road games, but those 5 wins have come against Notre Dame, BC, Clemson, NC State and Georgia Tech. All of those teams rank outside the Top 45 at KenPom, where FSU is ranked 20th.
Seminoles have also gone 8-1 ATS last 9 at home against great defensive teams like Virginia, who are allowing 64 or fewer points/game. They are also 11-3 ATS last 14 at home vs a ACC opponent. Virginia is 3-11 ATS last 14 off a win by 10 or more and 1-8 ATS last 9 after allowing 55 or less. Give me Florida State -1!
|02-14-21||Nebraska v. Penn State -11||62-61||Loss||-110||5 h 44 m||Show|
40* NEBRASKA/PENN ST NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Penn State -11)
I will lay the 11-points with Penn State at home against Nebraska. I know the Cornhuskers are searching for that elusive Big Ten win, but this is a team that has simply not been competitive on the road in conference play. Nebraska is 0-4 in away games in the Big Ten, losing by 14 at Wisconsin, 36 at Ohio State, 10 at Michigan State and by 18 at Minnesota. They also lost by 24 at Creighton in their only non-conference away game.
I just think the Cornhuskers are getting a little love after taking Illinois to OT at home in their last game. I actually think they it will be harder for them coming so close to beating a team like the Fighting Illini and coming up short. As for Penn State, they should be motivated here off a loss at Michigan State. Penn State has won 4 straight at home in Big Ten play and have to have this one. Give me the Nittany Lions -11!
|02-13-21||Utah v. Stanford -4.5||Top||66-73||Win||100||13 h 6 m||Show|
50* UTAH/STANFORD PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Stanford -4.5)
I backed Stanford as a slim home dog against Colorado on Thursday and it didn't go well with the Cardinal losing 51-69. It was just a bad game from the start for Stanford, who fell behind 10-0 to start the game and gave up 3 different 10-0 runs in the game. You got no chance of beating a team like the Buffaloes doing that.
I just feel that performance has the Cardinal showing some really good value here as a slim 4.5-point home favorite against Utah. The Utes have won 3 straight, but are not a team to be trusted on the road. Utah is a mere 5-14 ATS on the road over the last 2 seasons, where they are losing by an average of 10 ppg. Stanford is 14-5 ATS last 19 as a home favorite or pick, 22-9 ATS last 31 at home after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 and 14-5 ATS last 19 at home off a home game. Give me the Cardinal -4.5!
|02-13-21||Ole Miss -1.5 v. South Carolina||81-74||Win||100||9 h 53 m||Show|
40* OLE MISS/S CAROLINA VEGAS INSIDER (Ole Miss -1.5)
I will gladly back the red-hot Rebels as a slim 1.5-point road favorite against South Carolina. Ole Miss comes in off about as impressive 3-game stretch as you will find in SEC play. The Rebels knocked off Tennessee at home, beat Auburn on the road and then absolutely destroyed Missouri 80-59 at home in their last game.
South Carolina on the other hand has lost 6 of their last 8 games, including the last two at home. They lost by 16 at home to a very mediocre Mississippi State team last Saturday and then lost 78-81 at home to the top SEC team in Alabama. I just think they put everything they had into that game against the Crimson Tide and to lose they way they did, I just think it's going to be really hard for them to bounce back with the kind of effort needed to take out Ole Miss. Give me the Rebels -1.5!
|02-13-21||Duke -3 v. NC State||69-53||Win||100||7 h 52 m||Show|
40* DUKE/NC STATE NCAAB ATS NO-BRAINER (Duke -3)
I'm willing to take a shot here with Duke as a mere 3-point road favorite against NC State. I just feel like now is the time to buy low on the Blue Devils, who come in having lost 3 straight with the last two coming as home favorites against UNC and Notre Dame.
It just feels like it's now or never for Duke to flip the switch and get this thing turned around. I don't know that there's a better team for them to do that against than the Wolfpack. NC State is just 4-7 in ACC play and have lost 7 of their last 9 with their only two wins coming against bottom feeders Wake Forest and Boston College. Give me the Blue Devils -3!
|02-13-21||Georgia v. Alabama -13||82-115||Win||100||7 h 48 m||Show|
40* GEORGIA/ALABAMA NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Alabama -13)
I got no problem laying the 13-points with Alabama at home against the Bulldogs. The Crimson Tide are coming off a game where they failed to cover in a 81-78 win at South Carolina. However, they really should have covered. They led 78-70 with 3:37 to play and managed to score just 3 points the rest of the game.
On the flip side of things, Georgia is coming off a very fortunate cover on the road against Tennessee. The Bulldogs trailed by 23 with just under 11 minutes to play in the game and wound up only losing by 8. I don't think they are going to be able to keep it close at all against Alabama. The Crimson Tide are just as good, if not better, defensively than the Vols and are way better on the offensive side of the ball. After the sloppy finish against South Carolina, which followed a loos at Missouri, I look for Alabama to really come out with one of their better performances. Give me the Crimson Tide -13!
|02-13-21||Iowa -4.5 v. Michigan State||88-58||Win||100||5 h 19 m||Show|
40* IOWA/MICHIGAN ST NCAAB ATS ANNIHILATOR (Iowa -4.5)
I will lay the short number on the road with the Hawkeyes against Michigan State. Iowa snapped out of it's recent funk with a convincing 79-66 home win over Rutgers. The Hawkeyes were in control of that game from the get go and it wasn't a huge surprise to see Iowa get back on track with the return of C.J. Fredrick. When he's on the court this is just a different team.
I know the Hawkeyes failed to cover as a 9.5-point home favorite against the Spartans earlier this season, winning by just 6. However, they still put up 84 points and won the game despite a really off night from behind the 3-point line. They were just 5 of 17 (29.4%). This is a team that averages 10 made 3-pointers a game and is shooting 39% as a team from deep.
Not only was Iowa off, Michigan State went 12 of 29 (41.4%) from deep. That's not normal for the Spartans, who only average 7 made 3's per game and are shooting just 33% as a team. I just think Iowa is the much better team and are playing with a sense of urgency after their recent 1-4 stretch. Give me the Hawkeyes -4.5!
|02-12-21||Tulane +5.5 v. UCF||49-53||Win||100||9 h 9 m||Show|
40* TULANE/UCF NCAAB ATS SLAUGHTER (Tulane +5.5)
I like the points with Tulane as they hit the road against UCF on Friday. Some might see the fact that the Knights just played a really good game at home against Wichita State (lost 60-61) as a positive, but often times losing a close game like that is a lot harder to bounce back from than if you got your teeth kicked in.
I just think for a team like UCF, who is 5-10 overall and 3-9 in the AAC, with no shot at making the NCAA Tournament, that only makes it that much harder to bounce back. As for Tulane, they just upset Tulsa 58-48 on the road Wednesday and have really been playing some of their better basketball here of late. This is not only a game they can keep close, but win outright. Give me the Green Wave +5.5!
|02-11-21||Purdue v. Minnesota -3.5||68-71||Loss||-105||8 h 43 m||Show|
40* PURDUE/MINNESOTA NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Minnesota -3.5)
I will gladly take a shot here with Minnesota as a small home favorite against the Boilermakers. Some might be hesitant to back the Gophers given they lost by 19 (62-81) at Purdue roughly two weeks ago. Thing is, Minnesota is just a different team at home than they are on the road. Gophers are 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS at home compared to 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS on the road.
You also have to love how head coach Richard Pitino has got his team to respond when revenging a blowout loss to an opponent. As a head coach, Pitino's teams are 21-9 ATS at home when revenging a loss of 10 or more points. Gophers are also a dominant 20-9 ATS in their last 29 at home against a team with a winning record. Give me Minnesota -3.5!
|02-10-21||LSU +2.5 v. Mississippi State||94-80||Win||100||10 h 27 m||Show|
40* LSU/MISS STATE NCAAB ATS SLAUGHTER (LSU +2.5)
I think we are getting big time value here with LSU as a dog against the Bulldogs. The Tigers had started out 10-2 before going just 1-4 over their last 5 games. It might seem like LSU isn't playing well, but in reality the schedule has been brutal. Two of the 4 losses were to the best team in the SEC in Alabama, they also lost at Kentucky and a heartbreaker at home to Texas Tech in the SEC/Big 12 challenge.
I look for LSU to get back on track in a big way here against Mississippi State who is just 2-4 in their last 6 games and those 2 wins have come against ISU and South Carolina. Bulldogs figure to have a hard time keeping up offensively with the Tigers in this one, especially given LSU is almost a sure-in to win the turnover battle. Tigers are No.1 in the SEC in offensive TO%, while Mississippi State is No. 13 in defensive TO%. Give me LSU +2.5!
|02-10-21||Rutgers v. Iowa -6||66-79||Win||100||27 h 7 m||Show|
40* RUTGERS/IOWA NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Iowa -6)
I'm going to take the Iowa Hawkeyes -6 at home against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Most are going to want nothing to do with Iowa in this one, as they are just 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games. I think it has Iowa showing some decent value here. Note that in 4 of their last 5 home games they have been a favorite of 9.5 or more. Not to mention they already went on the road and beat Rutgers earlier this season.
It's been a combination of a lot of things that has played into the Hawkeyes recent slump. They aren't shooting the ball quite as well from deep, especially in the 2nd half of games, the defense has been sloppy at times and they just haven't closed games out. In almost all of these losses Iowa has had a big lead and let it slip away.
I just think with their backs against the wall, we are going to see them deliver in a big way at home against the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers has won 4 straight after losing 5 in a row, but none of those wins have come against a top tier team in the Big Ten.
This is also a Scarlet Knights team that has had a much harder time scoring on the road.They are averaging 72.6 ppg on the season and yet just 65.3 on the road. They also are shooting 46.5% from the field on the season, but only 43.8% on the road. You have to be able to score to keep it close against the Hawkeyes and I just don't think Rutgers will have the fire-power to do that. Give me Iowa -6!