40* (CFB) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (UCF -5.5)

I got no problem laying -5.5 at home with UCF as they host Boise State Thursday in a clash of two of the better Non-Power 5 programs. I just think the Broncos name recognition has them getting a little more respect than they probably should in this matchup. 

I'm not saying Boise State isn't one of the top teams in the Mountain West. I just think UCF is on a different level. I loved UCF's hire of Gus Malzahn. He struggled to make Auburn a consistent contender, but that's every team's problem in the SEC West outside of Alabama. The guy went 68-35 in 8 seasons with the Tigers (3 wins over Alabama). 

He couldn't step into a better situation. UCF was down last year, but still managed to go 6-4 and weren't far off from a perfect regular-season. They went 6-3 with a 8-pt loss to Tulsa, 1-pt loss to Memphis and 3-point loss to Cincinnati. 

They got one of the best quarterbacks in the entire country in Dillon Gabriel and a Top 15 caliber offensive line. It's just offensive juggernaut after offensive juggernaut at UCF. The Knights have averaged over 40 ppg and more than 500 ypg each of the last 4 seasons. 

Boise State will also be in the first year of a new head coach, as they had to replace Bryan Harsin after he left for none other than Auburn. The new guy is Andy Avalos. He spent the last 2 years as the DC at Oregon. He's also a hometown guy having played here and served as an assistant coach. 

Unlike Malzahn, Avalos has no previous head coaching experience to fall back on. I know Boise had 9 starters back on an offense that put up 33.9 ppg, but a lot of that came against bad teams. Broncos had 40 or more in 4 games. One of those was a 52-21 win over Colorado State where they only had 291 total yards. They scored 20 or fewer 3 times. The defense gave up 30 or more in 4 of their last 6. Give me UCF -5.5! 

50* (CFB) - Saturday "Week Zero" PLAY OF THE YEAR (UTEP -9) 

I got no problem laying single digits with UTEP as they open the season on the road against New Mexico State. I really think the Miners are primed for a breakout season. While they went 3-5 last year, no one is expecting much from UTEP. The Miners haven't had a winning season since 2014 and were just 2-34 in the 3 years prior to going 3-5. 

Thing is, they are now in year 5 under head coach Dana Dimel. Given what he had to work with when he got here, it was going to take some time to turn this thing around. Big thing to note with last year is that they had a 17-21 loss to La Tech, 28-38 loss to Charlotte and a 43-45 loss to North Texas. A few breaks go their way and they could have easily flipped their record to 5-3. Keep in mind their only two home games last year were against FCS foes, so they had to play their 5 toughest games all on the road. 

This is by far the best team that Dimel has had at his disposal. They got all 11 starters back on offense and they are really high on sophomore quarterback Gavin Hardison. It's by far the best UTEP has been on both the offensive and defensive lines. This team is going to be a really tough out in C-USA play. 

As for New Mexico State, I just don't think they are any good. We are talking about a team that has won 12 games total against other FBS teams in the last 10 years. They are in year 9 under head coach Doug Martin, so there's not much reason to expect things to just magically get better. There's major questions at quarterback and what they will get out of it. 

Aggies did play 2 spring games against Tarleton State (lost 17-43 as 7-pt favorite) and Dixie State (won 36-29 as a 1-pt favorite), giving up close to 500 yards in both games. They also have just 3 returning starters, when every other team in the country seems to have 15+ guys back. I don't think this will be close. Give me UTEP -9! 

50* CHIEFS/BUCS SUPER BOWL *BEST BET* (Chiefs -3) 

This is an easy play for me on the Chiefs. I not only think the Chiefs win the game and cover, but I could see this thing getting out of hand. Kansas City had little to no problem moving the ball against the Bucs defense when these two teams played in the regular-season. The Chiefs put up 543 yards with Mahomes completing 37 of 49 attempts for 462 yards and 3 scores. 

That's the thing, this Tampa Bay defense is built to stop the run. They just don't have the corners to hang with the weapons that this KC offense possess. I also think their pass rush will be negated with how good Mahomes is in the pocket. 

Let's also not forget how bad Mahomes played for about 3.5 quarters of last year's Super Bowl and the Chiefs still won that game. I don't think Mahomes will play that poorly in his second Super Bowl. 

As for Tom Brady and the Bucs offense, I think they could struggle. The Chiefs should be able to get pressure on Brady, as they got the guys in the secondary to matchup with Tampa Bay's weapons. Sure the Bucs could try and run the ball and might have some success, but it's only a matter of time before they have to throw to keep pace with the Chiefs offense. Give me Kansas City -3! 

50* BILLS/CHIEFS AFC CHAMPIONSHIP *BEST BET* on Chiefs -3

I'm shocked the Chiefs are only a 3-point home favorite in the AFC Championship Game. I feel like this should be the line if Mahomes wasn't playing, but as expected he's been cleared to play. I get the Chiefs have struggled to cover down the stretch, but we are talking about a 3-point spread with a team that is 24-1 in Mahomes last 25 starts. 

That includes a win over the Bills earlier this season. A game in which the Chiefs didn't need Mahomes to be great to win, as they rushed for more yards (245) than the Bills had total yards (206). KC's defense completely shutdown Josh Allen, who had a mere 66 passing yards in the 4th quarter before finishing with a mere 122. 

I just think this Bills offense is a perfect matchup for the Chiefs, as Buffalo doesn't have a running game. If you can't play keep away from Mahomes and that KC offense you are in trouble and I think the the Chiefs defense can exploit Allen's lack of accuracy. I just don't see Mahomes losing a game of this magnitude at home. Give me the Chiefs -3! 

50* RAMS/PACKERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Rams +7) 

I will gladly take the 7-points with the Rams against the Packers on Saturday. LA was my favorite sleeper pick coming into the playoffs. They lived up to the hype on Wild Card Weekend, going on the road and beating the Seahawks 30-20. 

For me it's all about the Rams defense. They are so good across the board on that side of the ball. They can take away Aaron Jones and the run game and have one of the best corners in the league in Jalen Ramsey to matchup with Rodgers favorite weapon Davante Adams. There's just not a lot of other weapons out there for GB and if LA can get that pass rush going, the Rams could easily win this game outright. Give me Los Angeles +7! 

50* OHIO ST/ALABAMA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ohio State +9) 

I cashed in a huge profit with Ohio State +7.5 in their 49-28 win over Clemson in the Semifinals and I will unload on the Buckeyes once again as an even bigger dog against Alabama. I just think there's some big SEC bias going with this number. I just don't think the SEC was as strong from top to bottom this year as it has been. Florida was the second best team in the league and they only beat the Gators 52-46 in the SEC title game. Ohio State is a much better defensive team than the Gators and every bit as potent on the offensive side of the ball. 

I not only think the Buckeyes cover the number, but I think they got an excellent shot here of winning the game outright. It doesn't happen often, but when Ohio State is a dog you almost have to back them blindly. The Buckeyes are 15-3 ATS last 18 games they were listed as the underdog and have won outright 8 of the last 9 times they were a dog. Adding to this, Alabama is just 12-20 ATS last 32 times they have been listed as a single-digit favorite. Give me the Buckeyes +9! 

40* BROWNS/STEELERS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Browns +5) 

I mentioned in the podcast I do during the week that road underdogs were 9-1-1 ATS over the last 3 seasons on Wild Card weekend. That improved to 11-1-1 with both the Colts and Rams covering as road dogs on Saturday. While I do have some concerns with the news that the Browns will be without their head coach, I'm riding with Cleveland in this one. 

I just think so many people are focusing on that and ignoring the fact that the Steelers did not play well at all down the stretch. Pittsburgh went just 1-4 in their last 5 games and in their lone win, a 28-24 victory against the Colts, they trailed 24-7 in that game. 

A lot of people will point to the Steelers nearly beating the Browns in Week 17 with Mason Rudolph instead of Ben Roethlisberger. I'm not saying that they are the same quarterback, but Rudolph threw for 315 yards and 2 scores. How much more than that can you really expect out of Big Ben. He only had two games all season where he threw for more than 315 yards and he had 2 or fewer TD passes in 5 of his last 6 starts. Give me the Browns +5! 

50* BEARS/SAINTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (BEARS +10.5) 

I mentioned in the podcast I do during the week that road underdogs were 9-1-1 ATS over the last 3 seasons on Wild Card weekend. That improved to 11-1-1 with both the Colts and Rams covering as road dogs on Saturday. I fully expect the Bears to add to this red-hot trend on Sunday. 

I played against Chicago as a 5.5-point home dog to the Packers in Week 17. Green Bay went on to cover in a 35-16 win, but it was not anywhere close to as big a blowout as that final score would indicate. The Packers had a mere 21-16 lead with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. Chicago outgained Green Bay 356 to 316. 

This is simply no longer an anemic offense that the Bears have. When you couple their ability to now move the ball with a defense that can matchup with anyone, this team is built to keep games close and that's where the value comes in with this line at 10.5. Not to mention Drew Brees is not Aaron Rodgers, he doesn't put near the threat on the defense down the field that Rodgers does. Give me the Bears +10.5! 

40* BUCS/FOOTBALL TEAM NFL SHARP STAKE (Football Team +9) 

No one is going to be running to the ticket window to bet Washington in the last game of Saturday's triple-header and I think it has the Football Team showing tremendous value here as a near double-digit home dog against Tom Brady and the Bucs. 

History not only says Washington is the right team to back, but it says they will win this game outright. There have been two times where a team has made the playoffs after a full season of games. The 2010 Seattle Seahawks and the 2014 Carolina Panthers. Both teams won outright on Wild Card weekend, with the Seahawks defeating the Saints 41-36 as a 10-point dog and the Panthers taking out the Cardinals 27-16 as a 10-point dog. Not to mention Washington head coach Ron Rivera was the man in charge of Carolina's victory. 

I'm well aware of the numbers that Tom Brady and the Bucs offense has put up in their 4-game win streak to close out the regular-season, but let's not overlook who they have played during this stretch. Two of the games were against the Falcons and the other two were against the Vikings and Lions. Those are 3 of the worst defensive teams in the league. The Lions are dead last in the league in total defense, Atlanta is 29th and Minnesota is 27th. 

Washington is No. 2 in the NFL in total defense, allowing just 304.6 ypg. Their strength being against the pass, as the are No. 2 in that department, giving up just 191.8 passing yards/game. They are also No. 6 in the league in sacks, and it's no secret that over the course of his career the one thing Tom Brady struggles with is pressure and I think it could really be a problem with how much Tampa Bay likes to throw it deep. 

For the entire season the Bucs only faced 4 teams who finished the league in the Top 10 in sacks. The only two teams they have faced that I think compare to the defensive front of Washington is the Saints and Rams. Tampa Bay lost all 3 of those games and in those games they only averaged 251.7 ypg. Also, Brady in those games averaged just 221.3 passing yards with a 4-7 TD-INT ratio (at least 2 interceptions in each game). 

I get there's concerns with Alex Smith and the Washington offense, but they have won each of his last 5 starts and scored at least 20 points in each of those games. I think if they can get to 20 they got a great shot at covering this spread and if they can force some turnovers they got a shot to pull off the biggest upset of the weekend. Give me the Football Team +9! 

50* RAMS/SEAHAWKS NFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR (Rams +5) 

I love the Rams at this price and I don't care if Goff plays or not. I like LA to win this game outright. These two split their two regular-season meetings and while Seattle won the most recent matchup at home 20-9, the Rams outgained the Seahawks 334 to 292. They outgained them 389 to 333 in the first meeting. 

This for me is all about the Rams defense and them being able to get stops.  LA had the No. 1 total defense, allowing just 281.9 ypg and the No. 1 scoring defense, allowing 18.5 ppg. They were No. 1 against the pass, No. 3 against the run and were No. 2 in sacks. They also were one of the better teams running the football down the stretch, averaging close to 130 ypg over their last 6 games. If it's Wofford, he makes their ground game even that more potent. 

The ability to put pressure on Russell Wilson and shutdown Metcalf with Ramsey is another huge reason I like the Rams in this game. I see this as a one-score game in the 4th quarter and that's where the value really comes from with the Rams at this price. Give me Los Angeles +5! 

40* PACKERS/BEARS NFL ATS NO-BRAINER (Packers -5)

I’m going to take the Green Bay Packers -5 on the road against the Chicago Bears. I just think this is too good a price to pass up with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. I know the Bears need a win to ensure they make the playoffs, but this game is every bit as important to Green Bay, who needs a win to lock up the No.1 seed in the NFC.  I just don’t see a Packers team that comes in having won 5 straight losing a game of this magnitude.

I’m sure there will be people looking to take the points with Chicago at home, as they see a Bears team that has appeared to finally figure things out offensively since reinserting Mitch Trubisky back in the starting role. 

I’ll be the first to say I didn’t think this Bears offense was capable of scoring 30+ points in 4 straight games, but if it was going to happen it was going to be in this stretch of games. You just can’t overlook who this offensive outburst has come against. It’s been against 4 of the worst defensive teams in the league in the Lions, Texans, Vikings and Jaguars. Houston Detroit and Jacksonville rank 30th, 31st and 32nd in total defense all giving up 411 or more yards/game. Minnesota isn’t far back at 27th. Those 4 teams also all rank in the bottom 7 in points allowed. 

Green Bay isn’t an elite defensive team by any means, but they held Chicago to just 10 points thru 3 quarters back in Week 12. The Bears added to garbage touchdowns late to finish with 25, but both of those came with the Packers up 31 points. Aaron Rodgers threw 4 touchdowns in that win as Green Bay finished with 41 and that was with good old Mitch at quarterback for the Bears. 

I just think when you factor in who the Bears have beat up on over the last month, there’s no reason to think the Packers can’t win this game by at least a touchdown. I think they not only do that, but likely win going away. Give me Green Bay -5!

40* CHARGERS/CHIEFS NFL STEAMROLLER (Chargers -4.5) 

I think we are getting a steal with the Chargers as a mere 4.5-point favorite against the Chiefs. Los Angeles comes into this game having won 3 straight and I see them being plenty motivated here, even with KC resting several players and those starters that do end up playing don't figure to stay in long. 

The biggest thing for me is no Patrick Mahomes for the Chiefs. A lot of people want to write off what Mahomes is doing because of Andy Reid and all the weapons he has. They ignore all the guys the Chiefs have lost on the offensive line. Mahomes is under constant pressure that not many quarterbacks could deal with. I think it's going to be a really tough game for backup Chad Henne. 

On the flip side of this, the Chargers should be able to move the ball here with Herbert. He made his NFL debut against KC back in Week 2 and went 22 of 33 for 311 yards. I don't expect many of the starters on defense to play long or at all. Give me Los Angeles -4.5! 

40* KENTUCKY/NC STATE GATOR BOWL VEGAS INSIDER (Kentucky -2) 

I think a lot of people are going to look at this matchup and wonder why a 4-6 Kentucky team is favored over a NC State team that finished 8-3 and are ranked No. 23 in the country. 

I’m not going to sit here and say Kentucky is a great team or anything like that, but I don’t think there’s any debate that the Wildcats played the much tougher schedule. NC State’s only win over a Power 5 team that finished the year with a winning record was a 30-29 victory at Pitt, who finished up at 6-5. A game they had no business winning, as they were outgained 503 to 398. 

In their 3 losses they  lost by 21 to Virginia Tech, by 27 to North Carolina and by 3 to Miami. While you might be thinking a 3-point loss to the Hurricanes is something to take note of, they were outgained in that game 620 to 410. 

Kentucky’s 6 losses all came against SEC teams. 4 of those were road games against Alabama, Florida, Auburn and Missouri, who all finished .500 or better in league play. They also lost at home to Georgia. The only bad loss if you want to call it that, is a 1-point loss at home to Ole Miss. I think NC State would have been lucky to win 2 games against the Wildcats schedule. 

I’m sure there’s concern with Kentucky’s offense, which only averaged 21.7 ppg and 312 ypg, but again you have to factor in the teams they played. When they played some of the weaker teams they were a lot more potent offensively. They scored 41 against Ole Miss, 34 against Tennessee, 38 against Vandy and 41 against South Carolina. I’m confident the Wildcats will be able to move the ball here against a NC State defense that gave up 40+ points in 4 games. 

The other thing I love with the Wildcats is that they got some NFL guys on this team that could have easily passed on this game, but instead the players have made it clear that they are 10% invested in winning this bowl game. 

Finding a way to get his team fired up for their bowl game is nothing new for Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops. The Wildcats beat Virginia Tech 37-30 last year as a 2-point dog. In 2018 they beat No. 13 Penn State 27-24 as a 6-point dog and in 2017 they lost 23-24 to No. 20 Northwestern as a 7-point dog. I think we are getting a gift here with Kentucky laying less than a field goal in this one. Give me the Wildcats -2!

50* OHIO ST/CLEMSON SUGAR BOWL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ohio State +7.5) 

I love the value here with Ohio State as a 7.5-point dog against Clemson. I believe we are seeing a big overreaction with this line because of how the Buckeyes struggled with Northwestern in the Big 10 title game, while the Tigers cruised to an easy win over Notre Dame. At least that's the story the media is portraying. I think Northwestern is a better opponent than people realize and Notre Dame is one of the biggest frauds out there. 

I really think this line should be 3 maybe 3.5 in favor of Clemson. I would not be surprised at all if Ohio State won this game. These two played last year in the playoffs and the line for that game was Clemson -2.5. The Tigers won by a final score of 29-23, despite the Buckeyes outgaining them by almost 100 yards. 

It doesn't happen often, but Ohio State has been money as a dog, going 20-7 ATS in their last 27 as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points and have won these games on average by a final score of 28.2 to 23.9. Give me the Buckeyes +7.5! 

40* CINCINNATI/GEORGIA PEACH BOWL SHARP STAKE (Georgia -6.5) 

I think we are getting a steal here with Georgia laying less than a touchdown against Cincinnati in the Peach Bowl. The Bearcats are 9-0 and blew a bunch of teams out early in the year, but you can't ignore who they played, especially in comparison to the Bulldogs. We also see Cincinnati barely hold on to beat UCF (won 36-33) in their regular-season finale, as well as Tulsa (won 27-24) in the AAC title game. 

The same Tulsa team that just lost to a Mississippi State team that went 3-7 in SEC play. Some might argue that Georgia won't be motivated to play, but I'm just not buying it. If that was the case they would have had more guys opt out than they did. 

This is a team that really elevated their play once JT Daniels took over at quarterback. I think it gave this team a big spark and they treating the end of this year as the first step to what they want to accomplish in 2021. Give me the Bulldogs -6.5! 

50* FLORIDA/OKLAHOMA COTTON BOWL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Oklahoma -2.5) 

I was quick to jump on Oklahoma at -2.5 once the news came out that Florida was going to be down their top 4 receiving threats in Kadarius Toney, Trevon Grimes, Jacob Copeland and Kyle Pitts. Those 4 guys accounted for 174 of the 296 receptions the team accounted for this season. Not to mention 34 of the 45 receiving scores. 

I also want to point out that I would have been on the Sooners here even if these guys were playing. I really like what I saw out of Oklahoma down the stretch. Freshman quarterback Spencer Rattler made huge strides over the course of the season, as did the Sooners defense. 

You have to factor in the emotional state for this Florida team. This is a Gators team that going into their Dec. 12th game against LSU was in the mix for a playoff spot. They found a way to get up for that game against Alabama in the SEC title game, but I just don't see them being interested at all in this game against Oklahoma. Give me the Sooners -2.5 and for those that missed out on the number, I would still take Oklahoma at -7, but it would be a 40* instead of a 50* bet. 

40* OK ST/MIAMI CHEEZ-IT BOWL VEGAS INSIDER (Oklahoma State -2)

I’m going to take the No. 21 ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys (-2) against the No. 18 ranked Miami Hurricanes in Tuesday’s Cheez-It Bowl held at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL.  

After watching the effort that Miami put forth in their 62-26 loss to North Carolina in their regular-season finale, I just have a really hard time seeing this team showing up for this game against the Cowboys. All they are going to be thinking about is getting this season over with and figuring out their New Year plans for Thursday. 

Not showing up for bowl games is kind of thing for this program. Last year Miami was shutout 14-0 as a 7-point favorite against Louisiana Tech. They year before they lost 35-3 as a 2-point favorite to Wisconsin. 

In that finale against the Tar Heels they let UNC rack up 778 total yards with 554 of those yards coming on the ground. Almost all of those coming from two players, as the Tar Heels Michael Carter had 308 rushing yards and Javonte Williams wasn’t far behind with 236. 

That defense that was a complete no show has since lost two of their best defensive players in defensive ends Quincy Roche and Jean Phillips. 

I expect more of the same here with Oklahoma State running wild on this Miami defense. I know the Cowboys have had their star back Chuba Hubbard leave the team to prep for the NFL, but honestly he wasn’t producing up to expectations anyway. Junior Dezmon Jackson rushed for 235 yards against Texas Tech and 118 against TCU before he gave way to freshman Dominic Richardson in the finale and he responded with 169 yards and 3 scores on 23 carries against Baylor. 

I know the Oklahoma State defense had some bad showings, but for the most part they were solid. In fact, they held all but 3 of their opponents under 30 points this season. They only gave up 22.4 ppg, holding their opponents on average a TD under their scoring average. 

Lastly, Cowboys head coach Mike Gundy has a history of getting his team to show in bowl games, Oklahoma State has covered in 4 straight and 5 of their last 6 bowl games. That includes 3 outright wins as a dog. Give me the Cowboys -2! 

50* BRONCOS/CHARGERS AFC WEST GAME OF THE MONTH (Chargers -3) 

I love the Chargers as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Broncos. After a season filled with finding ways to lose games, LA has flipped the script the last two weeks with a 20-17 home win over the Falcons in Week 14 and a thrilling 30-27 win at Las Vegas last week. I not only think the trend continues, I think they win here easily. 

The Broncos have been decimated with injuries in their secondary, most notably at the corner position. Denver has not only lost both starting corners, Bryce Callahan and A.J. Bouye, but Kevin Tolliver, Duke Dawson and Essang Bassey have all suffered season-ending injuries. They also won't have one of their top pass rushers in Bradley Chubb. That's a big problem against talented rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. 

On the flip side of things, Denver won't have their best back in Phillip Lindsay to take advantage of weak Chargers run defense and you can't trust Drew Lock at all. I just don't see the Broncos being able to keep pace offensively in this one. Give me the Chargers -3! 

40* COLTS/STEELERS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Colts -1.5) 

Pittsburgh comes into this game 11-3 and currently tied for the 2nd best record in the AFC, while the Colts are 10-4 and in a dog fight with the Titans for the top spot in the AFC South. Not many times are you going to see an 11-win team in the month of December as a home dog. I just think that right there tells you how bad it is right now with Pittsburgh. 

It crazy that just a few weeks ago the Steelers were the talk of the NFL as the lone unbeaten team at 10-0. The downward spiral started when they lost 23-17 at home to Washington after leading in that game 14-0. Then came a 26-15 loss at Buffalo, which I don’t think surprised a lot of people given how well the Bills have been playing. Then the unthinkable happened, they lost as a 14.5-point favorite to an awful Bengals team that was starting 3rd string quarterback Ryan Finley, who finished the game 7 of 13 for 89 yards. 

I’m sure there are going to be some that give Pittsburgh a pass. It’s easy to do when you have an 11-3 team. I just don’t think it’s a wise move. I just don’t think this is something that the Steelers can just snap out of. The writing was on the wall way before the losing started to happen, but a cupcake schedule covered up a lot of flaws. 

The defense that carried this team early has been decimated with injuries, Big Ben is not playing well and a lot of that is he has to do too much. Steelers are 31st in the NFL in rushing and they just don’t have the weapons like they use to on the outside. 

I don’t see them doing anything on the ground against a Colts defense that is one of the best in the league against the run. That’s going to make it really tough on the Steelers to sustain drives and I just feel that Indy’s renewed running game is going to be able to wear down the Steelers defense and secure a big road win on Sunday. Give me the Colts -1.5! 

40* 49ERS/CARDINALS NFL NO-BRAINER (Cardinals -5) 

I just can't help myself with Arizona laying less than a touchdown. The 49ers were eliminated from the playoffs with last week's 33-41 loss to the Cowboys and for a team that played in the Super Bowl last year, finishing out these last two games could prove to be quite a challenge. I know they are getting Kittle back, but he's likely on a play count and there's just too many injuries on both sides for it to make that big of a difference. 

This is a must-win for Arizona, who currently is 1-game up on the Bears, who play the Jags on Sunday. Keep in mind the Cards have to play at LA in Week 17 and the Rams will likely need that game for the NFC West title. Chicago on the other hand could be playing at home against a Packers team that has nothing to play for. 

There's really no excuse for Arizona to not win by at least 7 here. While they only won by 4 in the first meeting, that was back in Week 1 when the 49ers were still healthy. I just think the sharps are playing the number with SF and it's not the right move given the circumstances in Week 16. Give me the Cardinals -5! 

50* WKU/GEORGIA ST LENDINGTREE BOWL MASSACRE (Georgia St -3.5) 

I really like Georgia State as a small favorite in the LendingTree Bowl against Western Kentucky. The Sun Belt is way better than they get credit for and have really shown out so far in bowl play. C-USA on the other hand is way down this year. C-USA has already had 4 teams play in bowls and all 4 lost. Of those 4 teams, 3 failed to score more than 17 points. Two of those matchups came against Sun Belt teams with App St beating North Texas 56-28 and Georgia Southern beating La Tech 38-3. 

Georgia State doesn't get mentioned with the top dogs in the Sun Belt, but they probably should. Yes, they got annihilated by Coastal Carolina 51-0, but they took Lafayette to OT, before losing and had a lead late in the 4th quarter on the road against App State before losing. 

Western Kentucky went 5-6, but didn't have a FBS win against a team with a winning record as they beat Middle Tenn (3-6), Southern Miss (3-7), FIU (0-5) and Charlotte (2-4). 

Hilltoppers have one of they worst offenses in the country and will be playing without their top wide out. Panthers have an explosive offense that put up 32.7 ppg and can beat you with both the run and the pass. I just feel like this number should be closer to a touchdown not a field goal. Give me Georgia State -3.5! 

40* MARSHALL/BUFFALO CAMELLIA BOWL MASSACRE (Buffalo -4) 

This is a matchup of two teams that failed to deliver in their conference title game. Buffalo lost 28-38 to Ball State as a 12-point favorite, while Marshall fell 13-22 at home to UAB as a 4.5-point favorite. For me this was an easy play on the Bulls. 

I thought the 5 interception game against Rice for Marshall quarterback Grant Wells was something he would be able to move past from, but clearly that wasn't the case. Wells somehow looked even worse against UAB. He didn't complete a single pass in the 1st half of that game. With the Thundering Herd's top RB, Brendon Knox, opting out, I just wonder how this Marshall offense will score. 

The Herd do have a solid defense, but you could start to see the offenses inability to move the ball wear on them in that game against UAB. They gave up 216 rushing yards in that contest. If they aren't better against the run here they could be in trouble. Buffalo has a dynamic back in Jaret Patterson. It certainly won't help that Marshall's top linebacker Tavante Beckett decided not to play. He's really the heart and soul on that side of the ball. Give me Buffalo -4! 

40* GA SOUTHERN/LA TECH NEW ORLEANS BOWL VEGAS INSIDER (Georgia Southern -6) 

I will lay the 6-points with Georgia Southern in the New Orleans Bowl. This is quite the matchup, as you have both teams dealing with some serious quarterback problems. Both teams will be without their starters and the Eagles are also down their top backup. The fact that Georgia Southern is down to their 3rd stringer might seem like a big deal, but he's got some playing time and simply the quarterback position isn't as big a deal for them as it is most teams. 

The Eagles are a run-first team. They average 48 rush attempts to just 14 pass attempts per game. They also run it very well, averaging 262 yards and 5.4 yards/carry. That run game should be in full force against a Louisiana Tech defense that has allowed 300+ rushing yards twice in their final 3 games. 

As for the Bulldogs, they got no run game to speak of, as they come in averaging a mere 98 yards/game and 2.8 yards/carry on the ground. This is also a very strong Georgia Southern defense that was great against the run and can get after the QB. It's why I think them not having their starting QB is such a big deal. Give me the Eagles -6! 

40* UCF/BYU BOCA RATON BOWL STEAMROLLER (UCF +6.5) 

I actually like UCF to win this game, so backing the Knights at +6.5 was a no-brainer for me. I know BYU had this great season and come in ranked No. 16 in the country, but I'm sorry the Boca Raton Bowl is the last place this team wants to be.

The Cougars had their eyes set on a New Year's Six Bowl, but a loss to Coastal Carolina in their second to last game ended those dreams. They did bounce back with a 28-14 win over San Diego State, but were lucky to win that game, as the Aztecs blew several scoring opportunities and outgained BYU 399-384. 

UCF didn't have the season they were expecting, but it almost feels like people are sleeping on the Knights 6-3 record. UCF's 3 losses came to Tulsa by 8-points, Memphis by 1 and Cincinnati by 3. Everyone wants to talk about how good BYU's offense is, UCF averaged more points (44.3 ppg) and yards (586 ypg) and did so playing a much tougher schedule. 

While BYU could have a hard time finding motivation for this game, I think UCF will be extremely motivated to remind everyone just how good they are against a Top 20 opponent. Give me the Knights +6.5! 

50* CHIEFS/SAINTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Chiefs -2.5) 

I just can't pass up on the Chiefs at -2.5. Kansas City is in control of the No. 1 seed in the AFC and are not going to take their foot off the gas these final 3 games. The big news for this game is that Drew Brees is returning from injury. I'm a bit shocked Brees is back this early and I just wonder what he's going to be able to do and how he will respond to a hit.

I'm sure they are going to try and rely heavily on their run game, but that only works if the defense can keep Mahomes and the KC offense in check. We have also seen time and time again teams who try to play keep away with the run game, they get up early, but can't sustain it for a full 4 quarters. 

Another big thing for me is Mahomes wasn't great last week against the Dolphins with 3 interceptions. I can guarantee you that game has been itching at Mahomes all week. Great players almost always respond after a bad showing and I think that's what we get here. Give me the Chiefs -2.5! 

40* BEARS/VIKINGS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Vikings -3) 

*Analysis Coming* 

40* TEXANS/COLTS NFL ATS STEAMROLLER (Texans +7.5) 

I like the value here with the Texans catching 7.5-points on the road against a division rival. I think the perception with Houston is they have thrown in the towel after last week's embarrassing loss to the Bears. That performance wasn't pretty, but it was also to be expected after a crushing loss to the Colts the week before. If not for fluke fumble inside the 10-yard line in the final seconds, there's a very strong chance the Texans would have scored and beat Indy outright. 

There's definitely going to be some motivation here for revenge, but there's also motivation to play spoiler with how important this game is to the Colts in winning the AFC South. 

Another thing with last week's game against the Bears, Houston was down basically all their best skill players. They are going to get a few guys back for this game and with Deshaun Watson at quarterback they will be able to move the ball. Texans had over 300 passing yards in that previous game against the Colts. Give me Houston +7.5! 

40* 49ERS/COWBOYS NFL SHARP STAKE (49ers -3) 

I like this spot and price with San Francisco. You have the 49ers coming into this game off back-to-back losses as a slim favorite, while the Cowboys enter off their best win of the season, as they crushed the Bengals 30-7 last week. The thing is the 49ers two losses came against a red-hot Bills team and a surging Washington squad. Dallas' blowout victory was against the reeling Bengals, who have been a dumpster fire offensively since losing Burrow. 

Part of the problem in San Francisco's two most recent losses is they couldn't get the run game going against the strong defensive fronts of Buffalo and Washington. That's not going to be the case here. Dallas is awful against the run. On the flip side, the 49ers defense has continued to hold their own no matter who they have healthy and this Cowboys offense is one they should have success against. Give me San Francisco -3! 

40* BUCS/FALCONS NFL MONEYMAKER (Falcons +7) 

I felt very fortunate cashing with the Bucs last week against the Vikings. I thought when this line came out that maybe the books were trying to get us to take the Falcons, but the more I looked into it, the more it just feels like Brady and the Bucs are being overvalued. 

I just don't see Atlanta laying down in a division game, so while it's clear that Tampa Bay is the only team with something to play for, I expect the Falcons to be extremely motivated to play spoiler. You also have to like Matt Ryan and the weapons they have against a Bucs secondary that has a way of giving up big plays down the field. I'm not saying Atlanta pulls off the upset, but I wouldn't be shocked if they did. Give me the Falcons +7! 

40* PANTHERS/PACKERS NFL NO-BRAINER (Panthers +8) 

This just feels like a few too many points for Green Bay to be laying against Carolina on Saturday. Even though all Teddy Bridgewater does is cover the spread, the betting public can't help themselves when it comes to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, especially when they are rolling and playing at home. It's what has allowed the books to inflate the number here. 

It's very similar to last week against Detroit with the Packers laying 9-points on the road to a Lions team that can attack their weak secondary. Carolina can do the same and will always be in this game because of it. The backdoor will be wide open in the 4th quarter if needed, though I think the Panthers are going to be in it the whole way. Keep in mind the only team to beat Carolina by more than 8 is the Bucs. 

Also, favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season that are off a road division win and have won 75% or more of their games are a mere 8-31 (20%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Give me the Panthers +8! 

50* TULSA/CINCINNATI NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Tulsa +14.5)

I absolutely love the value here with the Golden Hurricane as a 14.5-point dog against the Bearcats. No disrespect to Cincinnati and what they have been able to do this season, but I think the number here is extremely inflated. Not only is Tulsa good enough to cover, they can win this game outright. 

Everyone wants to talk about how good the Bearcats defense is and it's really good, but Tulsa isn't far behind. Cincinnati gives up 308 yards/game and 4.2 yards/play. The Golden Hurricane only allowed 328 yards/game and 4.5 yards/play. 

This is by far the best defense that Cincinnati's offense has faced this year, as they have played about as easy a schedule in terms of defenses faced as you can. I really think this is going to be a defensive battle and the fewer points scored the more valuable the 14.5 we are getting becomes. Give me the Golden Hurricane +14.5! 

50* CLEMSON/NOTRE DAME NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Notre Dame +10.5) 

I was shocked to see Notre Dame getting double-digits in this game. I know the Irish caught a huge break in the first meeting with Clemson, as the Tigers didn't have the services of Trevor Lawrence. Stil, I'm not buying Lawrence is going to make an 18-point difference. 

Last I checked Lawrence doesn't play defense and Notre Dame put up 518 yards and 47 points on the Tigers stop unit in the first meeting. I also don't know how much more Lawrence can do offensively than his backup Uiagalelei gave them, as he threw for 439 yards and 2 scores. 

I also think you have to note the edge the Irish have on both the offensive and defensively line. Clemson only managed to rush for 34 yards on 33 attempts in that first meeting, where Notre Dame had 208 yards on 40 attempts. I wouldn't be shocked if the Tigers found a way to win the rematch, I just don't think it will be by double-digits. With that said I definitely think Notre Dame can win this game. Give me the Irish +10.5! 

40* OLE MISS/LSU NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (Ole Miss -2) 

I’m going to take the Ole Miss Rebels -2 on the road against the LSU Tigers. I got a feeling a lot of people are going to look at this line and wonder why the heck is LSU a home dog to Ole Miss after they just went on the road and upset No. 6 Florida last week. If you have been around this industry long enough, you know when something looks off there’s usually a good reason behind it. 

I definitely think that’s the case here. I just think the gas tank is going to be on empty for LSU on Saturday. After issuing a self-imposed bowl ban, it certainly felt like the Tigers treated last week’s game against Florida as their bowl game. It was also much more than that, as this team was sick and tired off all the negative media they were getting because of how they weren’t living up to the lofty expectations they set winning the National Championship last year. 

Regardless of the bowl ban and all that, I still would have looked to fade LSU in this spot. It’s going to be near impossible for the Tigers to bring that same energy and intensity they took the field with last week into this game. It’s just human nature to have a letdown after a game like that. Keep in mind that was the Tigers third straight week facing a Top 10 opponent, as they played No. 1 Alabama the week before and No. 5 Texas A&M the week before that. 

On the flip side of this, you have a hungry and motivated Ole Miss team that hasn’t played in 3 weeks, itching to get back on the field and get their crack at the defending champs. Not to mention a win here would go a long way in the Rebels securing a bowl bid. I think it’s a big deal for Lane Kiffin and his staff. Everyone missed out on a lot of practice time in the spring/summer because of Covid. It’s big for a first year coach to get those extra practices before a bowl game. 

This is also a great matchup for the Rebels high-powered offense. Ole Miss has one of the best passing attacks in the country and LSU has one of the worst secondaries in the country. Even in their big win over Florida they let Kyle Trask throw for 474 yards and that was with the Gators playing without the services of star tight end Kyle Pitts. I just think with the Tigers not all that interested in playing this game, this really has the potential to get out of hand. Give me the Rebels -2! 

*It's unfortunate that Ole Miss had two of their top receivers opt out for this game on Thursday, but I still like the Rebels in this matchup. I still think Ole MIss has the talent at the skill positions to make it work and I trust in Kiffin to get them in a position to succeed. More than anything I don't like the spot for LSU. 

40* OREGON/USC LATE NIGHT PAC-12 CHAMPIONSHIP (Oregon +3.5) 

I'm going to take the 3.5-points here with Oregon in the Pac-12 title game. The betting public is all over USC in this one, as the Trojans come in 5-0 and ranked No. 13 in the country. The Ducks are just 3-2 and only playing in this game because Washington, who won the North but doesn't have enough healthy guys to play. 

I just don't think USC is as good as advertised. They could easily be 2-3 instead of 5-0, as they snuck by Arizona State 28-27, barely knocked off a bad Arizona team 34-20 and squeaked by UCLA 43-38. They trailed by the Sun Devils and Bruins by double-digits in the 2nd half needed a TD with 25 seconds to play to beat Arizona. 

Oregon has the talent in the secondary to slow down USC's high-powered passing attack and should have no problem moving the ball against this soft Trojans defense. I'll take the field goal and the hook, but I'm confident the Ducks win this game outright. Give me Oregon +3.5! 

50* UAB/MARSHALL C-USA CHAMP *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Marshall -4.5) 

I love the value here with the Thundering Herd as a mere 4.5-point favorite against the Blazers. I really feel like Marshall has been the best team in C-USA this year and would have been closer to a touchdown favorite if not for a 20-0 home loss to Rice in their last game.

That was just an all-around bad showing by the Herd, who really had nothing to play for with a spot in the title game all but locked up. It was all them beating themselves, as they held Rice to just 213 total yards. The offense just kept getting in their own way with 5 turnovers, which is a bit crazy given they had a total of 6 turnovers in their first 7 games. 

UAB keeps finding a way into the C-USA title game, largely cause of the West Division being so bad. The Blazers 3 conference wins were against UTSA, Rice and Western Kentucky and only one of those was a blowout. It reminds me a lot of last year when this team had no business being in the title game and wound up losing 49-6 to FAU. Give me the Thundering Herd -4.5! 

50* CHARGERS/RAIDERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Chargers +3) 

I'm taking the Chargers and the points on Thursday Night Football. I've had it with this Raiders team. This team was right in the thick of things in the AFC playoff picture and have just not showed up to play. They got absolutely annihilated by the Falcons 43-6 in Week 13, should have lost to the Jets (won 31-28 on last second TD) and got embarrassed at home last week by the Colts 44-27. 

The firing of defensive coordinator Paul Guenther should have happened before the season ever started. I don't think doing it in Week 15 is going to do a whole lot. Especially with all the injuries the Raiders are dealing with on that side of the ball. They got at least 4 starters out for this one and it's not like this defense was playing any good when they were at full strength. 

Herbert and the Chargers are a difficult team to trust with how they find ways to lose games, but I think some of that is playing into this favorable line. I really think Las Angeles is the more talented team and there's plenty of motivation for them to put an end to the Raiders playoff hopes with a win tonight. Give me the Chargers +3! 

50* FBALL TEAM/49ERS ATS PLAY OF THE MONTH (49ers -3) 

I absolutely love this spot and price with the 49ers against the Redskins. This is the perfect time to fade Washington off that huge win over the Steelers on Monday. I also think it's the perfect spot to jump on San Francisco after they got embarrassed by the Bills last week. 

Not to take anything from Washington's win over Pittsburgh, but you can't overlook the difficult circumstances that the Steelers were in for that game. Pittsburgh was playing that game on 4 days rest, while Washington came into that game on 10 days of rest. The Football Team's 4 other wins besides the upset of the Steelers are against the Eagles, Cowboys (twice) and Bengals. 

I know the 49ers are playing in Arizona as their now home, but should be more familiar with this spot having played here last week. It's also the 3rd straight game Washington will be playing away from home. I just feel like SF's defense will be the difference maker in this one. Give me the 49ers -3! 

50* COLTS/RAIDERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Raiders +3) 

I love the Raiders catching a field goal at home against the Colts. The perception with Las Vegas has dropped dramatically over the last few weeks. People were talking about the Raiders as one of the best teams in the AFC when they nearly upset the Chiefs for a second time in Week 11. Then came a 43-6 los at Atlanta and a miracle 31-28 win at New York. 

It's created the perfect buy low spot on Las Vegas this week. Right now the Raiders are sitting on the outside looking in at the playoffs. They are tied for the 8th best record in the AFC with Baltimore at 7-5, but are just 1-game back of the Colts and Dolphins. They can move into a tie with Indy and possibly Miami (play KC). 

I also got some big concerns with the Colts in this one. Philip Rivers is not right as he continues to fight through turf toe and Indy is a little banged up on the defensive line. I also think this is a bit of a flat spot for the Colts playing their second straight on the road (decent travel here) and off that huge win over the Texans last week. Give me Las Vegas +3! 

40* VIKINGS/BUCS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Bucs -6.5) 

I’m going to take Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 at home against the Minnesota Vikings. I know this is going to be a public play. I don’t care. I really like the Bucs to win this game by at least a touchdown. 

I still think that even though this is a big public play, we are getting value with Tampa Bay due to the fact that they come into this game having lost 3 of their last 4. As well as the fact that the Bucs have a massive edge with them coming off of their bye week, while the Vikings just played an overtime game last week and haven’t a week off since late October. 

Let’s also not overlook the fact that while the Bucs have lost 3 of their last 4, those 3 losses have come against 3 of the best teams in the league in the Saints, Rams and Chiefs. 

I also love the matchup. Minnesota’s defense is below average to say the least. While they are only giving up 23 ppg over their last 5 games, they have played the Lions, Bears, Cowboys, Panthers and Jaguars, who are a combined 18-42 this year. In their previous 7 games before this easy stretch in their schedule, Minnesota was allowing 30.5 ppg. 

The other big thing here for me is the Vikings offense is really centered around running back Dalvin Cook and this Bucs defense is the best in the NFL against the run, giving up just 74.2 ypg and 3.3 yards/carry. Tampa Bay also sits 6th in the NFL with 34 sacks. I just don’t see Cousins performing well under constant pressure in this game. 

Also worth noting last time out the Bucs lost at home to the Chiefs and KC outgained them by 126 yards. As a head coach, Bruce Arians is 13-4 ATS off a home loss and 13-3 ATS off a game where his team was outgained by 100+ yards. Give me the Bucs -6.5! 

40* COWBOYS/BENGALS NFL SHARP STAKE (Cowboys -3) 

I will continue to fade the Bengals in Week 14. We have went against Cincinnati in each of their first two games without rookie Joe Burrow at quarterback. We got unlucky with the Giants not covering the 6.5 in Week 12, but were able to cash last week with the Dolphins -9.5. 

As bad as it's been for the Cowboys this year, I can't help but take Dallas as a mere 3-point favorite. The Bengals haven't been able to do anything without Burrow on offense. They totaled just 155 yards against the Giants and only had 196 last week against the Dolphins. 

Even this Dallas defense should be able to hold their own. You also have to remember that while the Cowboys come in with a record of just 3-9, they are not of it in the NFC East. With home games against the 49ers and Eagles on deck before closing out at New York against the Giants, Dallas has to believe they can run the table here and finish 7-9. Either way I got to take them in this one. Give me the Cowboys -3! 

40* TEXANS/BEARS NFL ATS NO-BRAINER (Bears +2) 

As difficult as it may be to back the Bears given they come into this game having lost 6 straight games, there's too much value to pass up with Chicago as a home dog against a decimated Texas team that I think will have a hard time getting up for this game after last week's crushing loss to the Colts, where they were on the verge of scoring the game-winning touchdown, only to fumble inside the 10-yard line. 

That loss to the Colts all but ended any hopes of sneaking into the playoffs. While they aren't officially eliminated, it's only a matter of time, as they are 4-games back of 7th seed Indy with 4 to play and have multiple teams between them and the Colts. 

Not only will the Texans likely not be all that interested given those circumstances, but this is team that plays indoors and will be playing in near freezing temps at Soldier Field in Chicago. Last time Houston played in poor conditions was at Cleveland in Week 10 and they managed just 7 points and 243 yards of total offense. Give me the Bears +2! 

40* SAN DIEGO ST/BYU NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (San Diego St +16.5)

I’m going to take the San Diego State Aztecs +16.5 on the road against the No. 18 ranked BYU Cougars. If you look at the statistics and compare the talent on the field, it won’t be hard to convince yourself that BYU can cover this spread. 

For me it’s not about the talent or the numbers, it’s 100% a play on the situation that BYU finds themselves in. First off, props for the Cougars taking that game last week against Coastal Carolina, but that loss completely ruined everything this team was playing for. 

BYU was thinking if they win that game they are going to be in a prime position to finish 11-0 and while it probably wouldn’t be good enough to make the playoffs, it would have ensured them at worst a New Year’s bowl, where they would be matched up against a top power 5 team and could prove to everyone they deserved more love in the rankings. 

There’s no more playoff talk, there’s no undefeated record at stake and they aren’t going to be in a New Year’s 6 bowl. I think it’s asking a lot from this BYU team to show up Saturday and lay it all on the line against the Aztecs. 

On the flip side of this, San Diego State is going to be excited about the opportunity to end their season with a win against a Top 20 team. It will be the first time this season the Aztecs will go into a game against a ranked opponent. 

I know the San Diego State offense leaves a lot to be desired, but defense is where a lack of motivation tends to really show. Defensively the Aztecs are stout as always and we just saw BYU’s potent offense struggle against a good Coastal Carolina defense. Really the only decent defense the Cougars have faced all year. 

Not to mention last year, BYU managed just 3 points in a double-digit loss to San Diego State. I love the Aztecs to cover the 16.5 and I give them more than a fighters chance to win this game outright. Give me San Diego State +16.5!

40* AUBURN/MISS ST NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Mississippi St +6.5)

I will gladly take my chances with Mississippi State as a near touchdown dog at home against Auburn. The Bulldogs have really shown some positive signs in their last 3 games. They beat Vandy and then lost by just 7 on the road to both Georgia and Ole Miss, covering in both games as big dogs. 

An offense that could barely do anything early on after that LSU game has come to life behind a bunch of talented freshmen. Most notably freshman quarterback Will Rogers. He completed 41 of 52 for 336 yards against Georgia and then went 45 of 61 for 440 yards against rival Ole Miss. 

Another thing to note here is Mississippi State has had two weeks to prepare for this game and because all these young guys are playing they should be motivated here. The same can't be said for Auburn. The Tigers are poised for a massive letdown after playing two Top 5 teams the last two weeks in Alabama and Texas A&M. With how much Bo Nix struggles on the road, I really give Mississippi State a good shot at winning this game. Give me the Bulldogs +6.5! 

40* DUKE/FLORIDA ST NCAAF ATS STEAMROLLER (Florida State -4.5) 

I just can't pass up on Florida State at this price. I know it's been another down year for the Seminoles and they will be playing for the first time since Nov. 14, but how do you not take a shot on them with what we have seen out of this Duke team down the stretch. 

To say the Blue Devils defense has been bad in their last 3 games would be an understatement. Duke gave up 56 points and over 500 yards to North Carolina. They then allowed 56 points and over 500 yards to a Georgia Tech that like FSU hadn't played in weeks. Last week they not only gave up 48 points and 500 yards to Miami, they also didn't score. All 3 games their opponent rushed for a minimum of 220 yards with both UNC and Georgia Tech eclipsing 335 yards. 

That's worth nothing. The one thing this Florida State offense can do well and really needs to do well to have success is run the football. They definitely should be able to do run here with dual threat quarterback Jordan Travis back in the mix. 

I know Duke might be able to move the ball here against FSU, but that's no guarantee. I certainly don't think they score enough to make up for what their defense is going to allow. Give me Florida State -4.5! 

50* WAKE FOREST/LOUISVILLE *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Wake Forest +1.5) 

I really like Wake Forest in Saturday's game at Louisville. I think we are getting a great price on the Demon Deacons because it's been almost a month since we last saw them play. Wake Forest last played at North Carolina on Nov. 14. A game they nearly won outright as a double-digit dog falling 53-59. 

The only other losses for the Demon Deacons came in their first two games when they lost to Clemson 37-13 and at NC State 42-45. This team is a couple plays away from being 6-1. 

Wake Forest can move the football and put up points. They come into this game averaging 39.3 ppg a full 8 points over what their opponents have given up on average (31.3). That offense will be up against a Louisville defense that has allowed 30+ points in 3 of their last 4 games. The only exception being a game against an awful Syracuse offense. 

While Wake Forest did allow a whopping 59 to UNC, they had gone 4 straight games prior to that matchup allowing 23 or less. Louisville's had one of their better wide outs opt out in November and just this week saw another opt out in Chatarius Atwell. 

Another huge concern I have with the Cardinals is there was a lot of players/fans that weren't happy with the fact that head coach Scott Satterfield talking to South Carolina about their open job, as he's only in year two with Louisville. I just don't see the Cardinals being motivated to play here. Give me Wake Forest +1.5! 

50* PATRIOTS/RAMS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Rams -4.5) 

I really like the Rams to cover the 4.5-point spread at home against the Patriots. I think a lot of people are taking New England in this game because of the fact that the Pats have won 4 of 5 and are off a 45-0 thrashing of the Chargers. They also remember what Belichick and that Pats defense did to Goff and the Rams offense in the Super Bowl a few years back. 

I just don't that I'm buying New England being this vastly improved team all of the sudden. I think the offense has major flaws. While they scored 45 in their last game, they finished that game with fewer than 300 yards of total offense (291). Pats are a run-first team and that plays right into the strength of the Rams defense. 

I also think McVay and Rams offense will be better prepared for what Belichick is going to throw at them this time around. I'm not saying they are going to go off for 30+ points or anything like that, but I think if they can get into the mid 20s, they have a great shot of winning by 5+ points. Give me the Rams -4.5! 

40* PITT/GA TECH NCAAF ATS STEAMROLLER (Georgia Tech +7) 

I'll take my chances here with Georgia Tech catching a TD at home against Pittsburgh. This will be senior night for the Yellow Jackets, as it's their last home game. Definitely will have Georgia Tech motivated to play, as will the fact that it's a prime time game at home. 

I also feel like we are getting value with the Yellow Jackets because of last week's 13-23 loss at NC State. That was a very misleading final score, as Georgia Tech repeatedly shot themselves in the foot. They actually outgained Virginia 412-397. 

Pitt is a quality team and will have an advantage in rest, but in the time since their last game against Clemson, they have had one of their best players opt out to prepare for the draft in likely 1st round pick Rashad Weaver. I just think Pitt is getting too much respect here. Panthers are just 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road this season, where their so-called great defense is giving up 32.8 ppg and just under 400 yards/game. Give me the Yellow Jackets +7! 

50* COWBOYS/RAVENS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ravens -7.5) 

I just think this is the spot to back Baltimore. The Ravens have went from one of the top Super Bowl contenders to a team that is on the outside looking in for a playoff spot in the AFC. With the 3 Wild Card teams (Browns, Dolphins and Colts) all sitting at 8-4 or better, Baltimore absolutely has to have this game. They are every bit in it with a win, which would move them to 7-5. If they fall to 6-6, they are in serious trouble. 

I know this team has had quite the deal with Covid, but they are getting a lot of guys back. It's also worth pointing out that while they are playing on just 5 days of rest, this will be just their second game since Nov. 22nd. 

I also love the matchup. Dallas can't stop the run and that's the one thing this Ravens team does really well. On the flip side of this, the Cowboys offensive line has been absolutely decimated with injuries. I just don't think they will be able to do much of anything on that side of the ball. Give me the Ravens -7.5! 

50* WASHINGTON/PITTSBURGH MNF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Football Team +7) 

I like the price we are getting with Washington against the Steelers. It's been pretty hectic for Pittsburgh of late. They had a game scheduled against the Ravens on Thanksgiving that didn't get played until last Wednesday. That was a big division game and it ended up being a lot closer than expected. 

Now the Steelers have to find a way to get back up on just 4 days of rest to face a hungry and vastly improved Washington squad. Alex Smith might not be the QB he was, but he's better than what the Football Team had. Washington also has a dominant defensive line that I believe will make it really tough on what I think is a very overrated Steelers offense. 

I know Steelers defense has been really strong this season, but they have struggled a bit against the run of late. Washington can definitely take advantage of that and if Smith gets rolling they can win this game outright. Give me the Football Team +7! 

40* COLTS/TEXANS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Colts -3)

I’m going to take the Indianapolis Colts -3 on the road against the Houston Texans. Perfect time to buy low on Indy off an ugly 26-45 loss at home to the Titans and perfect time to sell high on the Texans off a 41-25 thrashing of a bad Lions team on Thanksgiving Day. 

One thing I like here with the Colts is a lot of their key guys on the injury report are trending towards playing. Top RB Jonathan Taylor has been activated from the Covid List, center Ryan Kelly and guard Quinten Nelson are both practicing in full and there’s a good chance defensive linemen DeForest Buckner and Denico Autry will be activated off the Covid list prior to the game. 

While Indy is getting key guys back, Houston just got news that leading wide out Will Fuller and top corner Bradley Robey are both suspended for the remainder of the season after getting caught using performance enhancing drugs. 

It was already going to be hard enough for Deshaun Watson against a pissed of Colts defense that has been shredded their last two games. Same thing with the Houston defense, who is simply not very good. The numbers look decent here of late, but they have played a depleted Lions team that was missing all their skill players, a one dimensional Patriots offense and a mediocre Browns offense in bad conditions. 

Even with those 3 decent showings, Houston is still giving up 27.0 ppg, 410 ypg and 6.2 yards/play. I think Indy is going to have the much easier time moving the ball in this one. Colts have scored 26 or more in 5 of their last 6 games and sitting 9th in the league in scoring at 27.65 ppg. Give me Indianapolis -3

40* JAGUARS/VIKINGS NFL SHARP STAKE (Vikings -10) 

I'm going to roll the dice here with Minnesota. After an ugly loss to the Cowboys, the Vikings responded in a big way last week by turning a 21-10 4th quarter deficit into a 28-27 victory. Minnesota is now 4-1 in their last 5 and are 5-6 overall after starting the season 1-5. 

Jaguars haven't won a game since their upset of the Colts in Week 1, as they enter here on a 10-game losing streak. Jacksonville has covered 3 of their last 4 with most of that coming via the backdoor. I just don't trust the Jags to keep this one close. 

Minnesota should be able to do as they please on the offensive side of the ball. Jags aren't going to be able to stop Dalvin Cook and that's going to open up things for big plays in the passing game. 

I also think you have to look at the fact that Mike Glennon is starting over a healthy Gardner Minshew. If that isn't trying to lose on purpose I don't know what it. They 100% don't think Glennon is any kind of long-term answer. Give me the Vikings -10! 

50* BENGALS/DOLPHINS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Dolphins -10.5) 

I was on the wrong end of an ugly Bengals cover last week, as I had the Giants -5.5 and Cincinnati somehow got the cover doing next to nothing on offense the entire game. That's not going to deter me from fading the Bengals again, even at this big number. 

There's only a handful of games left and Miami is 1-game back of the Bills for the AFC East lead. I just don't see this team not showing up for this game at home and that's really the only way I see them not covering here. The Dolphins are even better defensively than the Giants and even if it's Tua and not Fitzmagic, Miami's offense is more potent than New York's, especially with them getting back running back Myles Gaskin after he missed the last 4 games. 

This Dolphins defense has made a living this year turning turnovers into points. I would be shocked here if they didn't have multiple turnovers in this one. Bengals had 3 last week against the Giants. Give me Miami -10.5! 

50* COLORADO/ARIZONA PAC-12 PLAY OF THE MONTH (Colorado -7) 

I don't know if it's because the Pac-12 started so late, but I'm not so sure people are taking notice to what Colorado is doing in the first year under head coach Karl Dorrell. The Buffaloes are 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS and have been winning with both their offense and their defense. 

They do have a couple misleading scores. They beat UCLA 48-42, but had a 35-7 lead in that game. They also narrowly beat Stanford 35-32, despite leading in that game 35-16 with less than 10 minutes to play in the 4th. 

I just don't think taking the foot off the gas will be an issue here against a struggling Arizona team that has started out 0-3. Wildcats are playing almost no defense. They are allowing 35.0 ppg, 460 yards/game and 6.2 yards/play. They have allowed 229 rush yards/game (5.2 yards/carry) and opposing QB's have completed 65% of their passes against them. Give me Colorado -7! 

40* TULSA/NAVY NCAAF VEGAS CASH COW (Tulsa -12) 

I think when some look at this game for Tulsa they see a big lookahead with Cincinnati, but I don't think that game is on their minds right now. The Golden Hurricane need to win this game against Navy to lock up a spot in the ACC title game. They don't want to have to go into next week's game needing to beat Cincinnati to play them again. 

I think if anyone is going to look past this game, it would be Navy. The Midshipmen have Army on deck and there's no game that means more to them than that one. With that said, even if Navy shows up to play I like Tulsa. 

That's because the Golden Hurricane are going to be ready for that option attack. They have had plenty of time to get ready having not played since Nov. 19 and their last game was against Tulane, who has a lot of option scheme to their offense. I'm pretty confident Tulsa will be the one establishing the ground game in this one, as they face a Navy defense that gives up a ridiculous 5.6 yards/carry (223 ypg). Give me Tulsa -12! 

40* TEXAS A&M/AUBURN NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Texas A&M -6.5)

’m going to lay the 6.5-points on the road with No. 5 Texas A&M as they visit Auburn. I just think there’s too much value here with the Aggies laying less than touchdown in this matchup. We can bank on Texas A&M being locked in for this game after pretty poor showing at home last week against LSU. It was just one of those games where the offense couldn’t get it going, but one thing this team has been able to do is not let bad performances stack on top of each other. 

There’s also a ton of incentive for Texas A&M to play well. Like it or not. They are No. 5 in the rankings and if they win out they got a decent shot of sneaking into the 4-team playoff because of their head-to-head to win against Florida. 

I know this is Auburn’s senior day and last home game of the season, but I just question how motivated the Tigers are going to be for this game. They just played their biggest game of the season last week against Alabama and have nothing left but pride to play for at this point. I don’t think the likely letdown from that game against the Crimson Tide is being factored enough into this line. 

I think it’s also worth pointing hut that I don’t think Auburn is as good as their 5-3 record would lead on. They have two double-digit wins against Kentucky and Tennessee that were much closer than the final scores would indicate, if not for a bad call they lose at home to Arkansas and they trailed Ole Miss late in the 4th quarter of a game they ended up winning by 7. 

Bo Nix hasn’t made that big sophomore jump that Auburn fans were hoping for. He’s thrown for more than 250 yards just twice in 8 games. He’s been sacked 18 times and has thrown just 10 touchdowns to 7 interceptions. 

I believe with Texas A&M’s talent up front defense, all the pressure is going to fall on Nix in this game and I will gladly take my chances that he doesn’t deliver. The Aggies rank 5th in the country giving up just 87.1 rushing yards/game. Give me the Aggies -6.5! 

40* TEXAS/K-STATE NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (Kansas St +7.5)

This is one of those situations that I can't wait to play at the end of the season. If you look at the talent on the roster and the stats leading up to this game, it's going to tell you to play Texas. I just think you can throw out the numbers in this one. 

This is just a spot where it's almost impossible for a team like Texas to show up. The Longhorns are coming off a loss in the final minutes to Iowa State in a game they had to win to keep alive their hopes of playing in the Big 12 title game. Now there's nothing at stake and it only makes it that much harder to show up on the road. Not to mention K-State isn't a big rival or anything. 

I know the Wildcats have lost 4 in a row, but that almost makes me like them more in this spot. This is K-State's last game of the season, which means the last time these seniors will take the field at home. I know Texas isn't what Texas was, but these Big 12 teams still get up for the Longhorns. I really think K-State can not only cover, but win this game outright. Give me the Wildcats +7.5! 

40* ARKANSAS/MISSOURI NCAAF ATS ANNIHILATOR (Arkansas +3) 

I think the books are setting bait with Missouri as a slim 2.5 to 3 point home favorite against Arkansas. The Tigers have gone 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. Last time out they destroyed Vanderbilt 41-0 as a mere 14-point favorite. That's great and all, but I just don't think it's worth getting all that excited beating LSU, Kentucky Vandy at home and S Carolina on the road. 

Also, while Missouri still has a game on deck next week against Vandy (for now), this is it for the Razorbacks. Arkansas is going to be motivated to end this season on a strong note. This is the best the Razorbacks have looked in years. They had covered 6 straight to open the season before losing their last two. They got blown out by Florida, but only lost by 3 as a 1.5-point dog to LSU. 

Arkansas has had all kinds of time to prepare, as they have been off since Nov. 21. I just think their defense is built to slow down an offense like Missouri, who really wants to air it out. More than anything, I think the hogs are the better team and the books certainly agree given the line they set with the recent results that have taken place. Give me Arkansas +3! 

40* GIANTS/BENGALS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Giants -5.5) 

I’m going to lay the 6-points with the New York Giants on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals. I have big time concerns with the Bengals over the final 6 weeks after losing Joe Burrow to a pretty serious knee injury. I think his injury could suck the life out of this team. They aren’t making the playoffs and without Burrow the Jets probably wouldn’t be the only winless team going into Week 12. 

Burrow suffered the injury less than 5 minutes into the 3rd quarter. From that point on the Bengals offense managed a mere 25 yards of total offense on 21 plays. Ryan Finley came in for Burrow and went 3 of 10 for 30 yards with an interception and was sacked 4 times. 

Word is that Brandon Allen will start instead of Finley against the Giants, but I’m not expecting much better results. Allen’s played in 3 games since being drafted in the 6th round of the 2016 draft. All 3 coming last year with the Broncos. In those 3 starts he completed 39 of 84 attempts (46.4%) with two interceptions and was sacked 9 times. 

Sure the Bengals have some decent weapons at receiver, but they got no running game and an awful offensive line. People don’t realize just how great Burrow was playing given what he had to work with. 

That Cincinnati offense will be up against a Giants defense that can get after the quarterback. New York is T-12th in the league with 25 sacks. 

On of all that, there’s more to like here with New York. The Giants have quietly been playing well for a while now. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games and have covered 4 straight. They are just 3-4 SU in these 7 games, but 3 of the losses were by 3-points or less and the other was by just 8 on the road at the Rams. 

You also have to factor in the Giants are coming off their bye week and with a win against the Bengals they will move into a T-1st place in the NFC East with whoever wins with the Redskins/Cowboys game on Thanksgiving. 

This is definitely one of the few times that I would ever consider laying almost a touchdown on the road with a 3-win team, but I really would be shocked if this game was close at all. Give me the Giants -6! 

40* DOLPHINS/JETS NFL NO-BRAINER (Dolphins -6.5) 

I backed the Dolphins before the news that Tua was going to be hurt, but that was with the expectation that he likely wouldn't play. Even if he had been a go, I still would have liked Miami in this spot. I love them now that Fitzpatrick is back at quarterback, as the offense was clearly moving the ball better with him under center. 

There's no reason that Fitz and the Dolphins can't score 30 points in this game. I know Darnold will be back for the Jets, but that doesn't really concern me against a very underrated Dolphins defense. The Jets are scoring 14.9 ppg and giving up 30.2 ppg. Darnold isn't fixing that. 

The only concern here would be Miami not giving New York their full attention, but I just don't see that happening. Dolphins should be locked in off a loss last week and they are trying to win the division. They are just 1-game back of Buffalo and can't afford to lose here. Give me Miami -6.5!  

40* MISS ST/OLE MISS NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (Mississippi St +10) 

I’m going to take the Mississippi State Bulldogs +10 in Saturday’s showdown with in-state rival Ole Miss. I not only think Mississippi State will cover the double-digit spread, but I give them a legit shot at winning this game outright. 

No one could have predicted how bad the Bulldogs offense would be after their season-opening 44-34 win at LSU. K.J. Costello threw for over 600 yards and there was all kinds of talk about how Mike Leach’s offense was going to torment the SEC. 

It went the exact opposite. Over Mississippi State’s next 4 games they would score just 30 points and turn the ball over 15 times. 

Costello would eventually get hurt and it’s opened up the door for true freshman Will Rogers to get his feet wet. Rogers has gotten better and better with each outing. Last week he was sensational against a Georgia team that was coming off a bye. Rogers completed 41 of 52 attempts for 336 yards, as Mississippi State narrowly lost 24-31 on the road to the Bulldogs as a 26.5-point underdog. In his 2 starts he’s completed 78% of his attempts and the Bulldogs offense didn’t have a single turnover in either start. 

He’s not the only freshman that’s been making noise on the offensive side of the ball. True freshman running back Dillon Johnson scored twice on the ground and true freshman wide out Jaden Walley had 7 catches for a team-high 115 yards, including a 51 yard TD pass. 

I’m pretty confident that the Bulldogs can keep this momentum on the offensive side going against Ole Miss. The Rebels are the worst defensive team in the SEC. They are giving up 40.9 ppg and 536 yards/game. The only team they have held under 33 points is Vanderbilt and that was a bit fluky as the Commodores scored just 21 points despite racking up over 400 yards. 

I know that Ole Miss has a great offense and are going to put up points, but defense hasn’t exactly been a weakness for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are only giving up 367 yards/game and 5.4 yards/play. 

I really think that you could make a strong case here that Mississippi State’s offense will have the easier time moving the football. No way should they be getting this many points. Give me the Bulldogs +10! 

40* KENT ST/BUFFALO NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Kent State +7.5) 

I will gladly take more than a touchdown with the Golden Flashes. I love this Kent State team. More than anything, I love their head coach Sean Lewis. Unfortunately for the Flashes, this is probably it for him. I would be shocked if he's not a head coach at a much bigger program after this season. 

Lewis installed what is known as the "FlashFast" offense when he arrived. It's working. Kent State has put up 52.7 ppg and 616 ypg. A big reason for those numbers is senior QB Dustin Crum, who is averaging 10.3 yards/attempt and has a 9-1 TD-INT ratio. 

This is a team coming into the year that I thought could win the MAC. So while they have benefited by playing their last two games against BG and Akron, you can't fault them for the schedule. There's every reason to believe they can not only hang but beat this Buffalo team. 

They did exactly that last year, beating the Bulls 30-27 as a 6.5-point dog. I just think this line should be closer to 3.5. Give me Kent State +7.5!  

50* MARYLAND/INDIANA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Maryland +12) 

This is a situational spot that I love to back. It's all about fading teams like Indiana that are off a crushing loss. It's so much about losing the game, it's the fact that with that loss they also lost any hope that they could shock the world and win the Big Ten East. 

That type of defeat also hurts that much more when you feel like you could have won the game. It didn't look good for Indiana early, as they trailed Ohio State 28-7 at the half. Hoosiers had the ball twice in the final minutes down just 7. 

I just don't see how this Indiana team can talk themselves into getting up for a game against Maryland. Given what we have seen out of the Terps in their last two games, they might win this one outright. Maryland beat Minnesota 45-44 as 17.5-point dog and then won 35-19 as a 27.5 point dog at Penn State. 

After a dreadful first start against Northwestern, Taulia Tagovailoa (Tua's younger brother) has been outstanding, throwing for 676 yards and 6 TDs in those two upset wins over the Gophers and Nittany Lions. Give me Maryland +12! 

40* STANFORD/CAL NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Stanford +1.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Cardinal at basically a pick'em against the Golden Bears. I think we are getting a great price on Stanford in this one. The Cardinal are a team I was really high on coming into this year. I'm still not sure they don't beat Oregon in their opener if Mills doesn't test positive for covid right before the game. 

The defense hasn't been great in their first two games, but they will be facing a Cal offense that is averaging a mere 4.3 yards/play in their two games against UCLA and Oregon State. This is also not the same Golden Bear defense to what we are use to seeing under Wilcox. Cal is giving up 224 yards/game and 5.3 yards/carry against the run and 6.1 yards/play overall. 

Also revenge angle here for Stanford, as Cal won this rivalry game last year for the first time in 10 years. Give me the Cardinal +1.5! 

50* NOTRE DAME/N CAROLINA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Notre Dame -4.5) 

I love the value here with the Irish laying less than a touchdown against the Tar Heels. I got a ton of respect for what Mack Brown is doing with this UNC program, but I just don't see the Tar Heels making a game of it. 

It all comes down to defense and only one of these teams play it. North Carolina has won two games this season giving up 45 or more points. They also lost a game against a bad Virginia team allowing 44. They certainly aren't slowing down a Notre Dame offense that has scored 40+ in 5 of their last 7 games, including each of their last two. 

I'm not going to say that the Irish will be able to keep UNC from scoring, but Notre Dame should at least be able to get some stops. The Irish are only giving up 16.6 ppg and 304 yards/game on the season. 

Also laying more than a field goal isn't as concerning in a game where a lot of points figure to be scored. Much more likely that if Notre Dame wins they do so by more than the number. Give me the Irish -4.5! 

40* NEBRASKA/IOWA NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Nebraska +14) 

This is just too many points to pass up with Nebraska in Friday's big rivalry game with Iowa. It just feels like we are seeing a bit of an overreaction here from last week's results with the Hawkeyes steamrolling Penn State on the road 41-21, while the Cornhuskers inexplicably lost 23-41 at home to Illinois as a 17-point favorite. 

I just think that poor showing against the Illini was more of Nebraska just not showing up ready to play that game. They aren't going to do that against Iowa. They are going to give everything they got to make a game of this and let's not forget they too beat Penn State and gave Northwestern all they could handle on the road. 

Each of the last two in this series have been decided by 3-points or less, including Nebraska's last trip to Iowa, where they lost 28-31 as a 8.5-point dog. I just think it's asking a lot here for Iowa to win by more than 2 touchdowns. Give me Nebraska +14! 

50* FBALL TEAM/COWBOYS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Football Team +3) 

I will gladly take the 3-points with Washington, as they visit the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. The books know everyone is going to be on Dallas in this game, especially after their big win over the Vikings last Sunday. It wreaks of a trap. 

What people will overlook with the Cowboys strong showing against the Vikings is that Minnesota's defense is not very good. The biggest thing is the Vikings don't have the talent on the defensive line to exploit a bad Dallas offensive line. That's not the case against the Foortball Team. Washington has one of the best defensive lines in the league. 

People also are quick to forget that these two teams played once already and the Football Team won convincingly 25-3 with a 397 to 142 edge in total yards. Andy Dalton was just 9 of 19 for 75 yards in that game and the Washington defense racked up 6 sacks in that contest. 

Cowboys defense had no answer for Washington's run game, as they racked up 208 yards on 39 attempts (5.3 yards/carry). Kyle Allen started that game, but only threw for 194 yards, so no reason not to expect the same or better numbers from Alex Smith in the rematch. Give the Football Team +3! 

40* TEXANS/LIONS NFL ATS NO-BRAINER (Texans -3) 

I just can't help myself here with the Texans laying only a field goal on the road against the Lions. Detroit is an absolute mess right now. There's clearly something wrong with starting quarterback Matthew Stafford. He was just 18 of 33 for 178 yards against a pretty suspect Carolina defense. 

Detroit's defense has also been ravaged with injuries in the secondary, most notably at cornerback. They just let Carolina backup QB, P.J. Walker complete 24 of 34 for 258 yards in his first ever start. The Panthers won that game 20-0, but it should have been a lot worse, as Walker threw two picks in the endzone. 

I look for Deshaun Watson to have an absolute field day in this one and while the Texans defense isn't great, they should have no problem slowing down this Detroit offense. Either way, Watson and the offense should score enough here to cash in an easy win and cover. Give me Houston -3! 

50* RAMS/BUCS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bucs -4) 

There's been a lot made of the Bucs struggles in prime time games, but I don't see that being an issue here. Tom Brady knows how to win these big games and I love that he's got a full compliment of weapons at his disposal against the Rams. 

I know LA's defense has put up great numbers and just had a great game last week against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, but I'm just not buying into them being as good as their numbers. 

Rams have played a pretty easy schedule. They started the season with 4 of their first 5 games against the NFC East. Their other 5 opponents have been the Bills (L), 49ers (L), Bears (W), Dolphins (L) and Seahawks (W). 

I also think not enough is being made here of the fact that the Rams won't have left tackle Andrew Witworth. He's one of the best at his position. There's a massive drop off from Witworth and backup Joe Noteboom. 

I see that being a big problem against a really strong Tampa Bay defensive front. It's also worth pointing out that LA's offense really needs to be able to run the ball to set up easy throws for Goff. Bucs have one of the best run defenses in the league, as they are allowing just 77 ypg an 3.3 yards/carry vs the run this year. Give me the Bucs -4! 

40* VIKINGS/COWBOYS NFL STEAMROLLER (Vikings -7) 

No need to overthink this one. I don't care that the Cowboys are off their bye week and the last time we saw them they nearly won outright as a 14-point home dog to the Steelers. This is still an awful team and I'm shocked they are even considering about going back to Andy Dalton. 

On top of this, the Vikings are one of the hottest teams in the league right now. Minnesota has won 3 straight. They did barely scrape by with a 19-13 win at Chicago last week, but that was the Bears defense and their ability to slow down Cook. Cowboys run defense is awful. I look for Cook to have a big game and that's going to make life easy for Cousins against an equally bad Cowboys secondary. I'm shocked this line isn't more than a touchdown. Give me the Vikings -7! 

50* PACKERS/COLTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Packers +1.5)

I love the value here with Green Bay catching points against the Colts. I know Indianapolis has a great defense, but it's more suited to stop the run than it is the pass. I just think with the Packers recent struggles we are getting them at a great price in a great matchup. 

Not only do I love the matchup for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense when they have the ball, but I also think it's a great matchup for the Green Bay defense. The Packers biggest weakness is their run defense and running the ball is far from the strength of this Colts team. Indy is only averaging 3.8 yards/carry and that's against teams who give up on average 4.3 yards/carry. 

I also just don't trust Philip Rivers in this spot. As a starter, Rivers is just 11-21 ATS in his last 32 starts at home as a favorite. Green Bay is also a great bet after a game where they failed to cover. Packers are 13-4 ATS last 17 off a ATS loss. Give me Green Bay +1.5! 

40* TITANS/RAVENS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Ravens -6)

I'm going to take the Baltimore Ravens -6.5 at home against the Tennessee Titans. I just think this is the ideal spot to back Baltimore. The Ravens are a pissed off bunch after an ugly 17-23 loss at New England. Baltimore won the yardage battle 357 to 308, but just a few plays here and there that really set the offense back. Not to mention mother nature played a big role with wind and rain. 

I still think this Ravens team is still one of the best teams in the league and while everyone has been quick to jump off the Lamar bandwagon, I think he's going to have himself a big day here against a bad Titans defense. Tennessee is giving up 26.1 ppg, 398 ypg and 5.9 yards/play. They have allowed 30 or more points in 5 of their last 8 games. 

Not only are they giving up a lot of points, but their offense has cooled off considerably since the start of the year. Tennessee averaged 32.8 ppg on their way to a 5-0 start against a soft schedule that had them play the Broncos, Jags, Vikings, Bills and Texans. Since that 5-0 start they are 1-3 with their only win over a equally overrated Bears team. During this 1-3 stretch they are only averaging 21.3 ppg

Lastly, this is not just another game for Baltimore. The Ravens were the No. 1 seed in the AFC Last year and would lose 28-12 at home to the Titans. Tennessee couldn't have got much luckier in that game. Baltimore somehow managed just 12 points with Jackson throwing for 365 yards and rushing for 143. Ravens said after the game that they were to blame for not giving the Titans their full attention. You can't say that and not show up with something to prove the next time you play. I'll gladly take my chances with the Ravens winning here by at least a touchdown. Give me Baltimore -6!

40* STEELERS/JAGUARS NFL NO-BRAINER (Jaguars +10.5) 

I went against the Steelers last week and paid the price, as Pittsburgh laid it on Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Looking back that wasn't a great play given the Steelers were off that ugly game against the Cowboys. 

Losing that play is not going to keep me from fading Pittsburgh this week at Jacksonville. This is a bit of a trap game for the Steelers, as they got a huge home game on deck against division rival Baltimore on Thanksgiving night. 

The other big thing here is that this Jaguars team has continued to come out and play hard. Jaguars nearly won outright as a 14-point dog last week at Green Bay, losing 20-24. The week before they only lost by 2 to the Texans as a 7-point dog. 

It's also worth pointing out that for whatever reason the Steelers just don't seem to play well against this Jaguars team. In his career, Ben Roethlisberger is just 5-5 SU and 3-6-1 ATS in 10 starts vs Jacksonville. Steelers are also a mere 1-9 ATS last 10 times they have been a road favorite of 10.5 to 14 points. Give me the Jaguars +10.5! 

40*  BENGALS/FOOTBALL TEAM NFL SHARP STAKE (Washington -1) 

I think we are getting too good a price here to pass up with Washington at basically a pick'em at home against the Bengals. Joe Burrow and that Cincinnati offense got a bit of a wakeup call last week, as Burrow went just 21 of 40 for 213 yards and the Bengals managed just 10 points. 

Burrow was sacked 4 times in that game and I just wonder how that Cincinnati offensive line is going to hold up against a really good Washington defensive line. I really think the Bengals are going to find it hard to move the ball in this game. 

While the Football Team comes in off a 30-27 loss at Detroit, I think they gained some momentum in defeat. Alex Smith rallied this team from a 21-point deficit and wound up throwing for 390 yards. I think Smith is in store for another big game here. 

Lot of people overlook the fact that Washington is a few breaks away from being on a 4-game winning streak. They are just 1-3 in their last 4, but all 3 losses were by 3-points or less. I think we are getting a great price on the better team, playing at home. Give me Washington -1! 

40* TENNESSEE/AUBURN NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Tennessee +10.5) 

I will gladly take the 10.5-points with the Volunteers on the road against Auburn. I think this is a great spot to buy low on Tennessee. The Vols come in having lost 4 straight and are 0-4 ATS in those 4 defeats. I expect a very motivated Tennessee team coming off a bye week.

While Auburn hasn't played a game in November, they might have a hard time getting up for this game. That's because the Iron Bowl against Alabama is looming next week. That's Auburn's Super Bowl. 

I also think Auburn's lackluster offense and subpar defense make this a great matchup for Tennessee. Look for the Vols to get their run game going in this one and I think that's the key to this offense having success. Wouldn't be shocked at all if the Vols won outright. Give me Tennessee +10.5! 

40* VA TECH/PITT NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (Pittsburgh +3.5)

I'll take my chances here with Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point home dog against the Hokies. The Panthers snapped a 4-game losing streak last time they were out with a 41-17 blowout win at Florida State. I look for Pitt to carry over that momentum with a big showing at home against a reeling Virginia Tech team. 

Hokies ACC hopes have come crashing to a close, as Va Tech now has 3 losses in ACC play after last week's crushing 24-25 loss at home to Miami. That's one of those losses that are really hard to bounce back from. 

I also don't like this matchup at all for Virginia Tech. The Hokies are a run dominant team. They come in averaging 263 ypg on 43 attempts/game. That plays right into the strength of the Pitt defense, which is giving up just 79 yards/game and 2.2 yards/carry vs the run. Give me the Panthers +3.5! 

40* WISCONSIN/NORTHWESTERN NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Northwestern +7.5) 

I'm going to take the No. 19 ranked Northwestern Wildcats +7.5 at home against the No. 10 ranked Wisconsin Badgers. I just think the price is right with Northwestern as more than a touchdown dog at home against Wisconsin. I actually think the Wildcats can win this game outright.

Even though Northwestern comes in 4-0, ranked in the Top 25, I still think this team is flying under the radar. The Wildcats only went 3-9 last year, but with 19 returning starters and Indiana grad transfer Peyton Ramsey added in to be the new starting quarterback, this was a team that was primed to have a massive turnaround. 

Ramsey has really helped the offense improve over last year, when they averaged just 16.3 ppg and 297 ypg, but it's the defense that is what makes this Wildcats team special. Northwestern is allowing just 14.0 ppg, which is 11.9 ppg fewer than what their opponents are averaging. They are giving up just 3.6 yards/carry against the run and 4.8 yards per pass attempt. They are allowing just 302 ypg and 4.3 yards/play. 

I know Wisconsin's offense has looked great in their first two games, but they played an awful Illinois team and a Michigan team that just isn't very good and I believe lost a lot of their fight after how poorly they started the year. Freshman quarterback Graham Mertz was spectacular against the Fighting Illini, going 20 of 21 for 248 yards and 5 TDs. He was much more average against Michigan, going just 12 of 22 for 127 yards. 

I'm confident here that Northwestern's defense can hold the Badgers in check. Keep in mind last year when these two teams played, Wisconsin came into the game off a shocking 35-14 blowout win over then No. 11 Michigan and barely held on for a 24-15 home win over Northwestern. Badgers only managed 243 total yards, totaling just 130 rushing yards on 36 attempts. Note that was a Wisconsin team that was 3-0 averaging 48.3 ppg and 507 ypg. Give me the Wildcats +7.5

50* BIG TEN PLAY OF THE MONTH (Penn State +3) 

I will gladly take the points here with Penn State at home against the Hawkeyes. I believe this is the perfect time to buy low on the Nittany Lions, who have went from Big Ten title contender to a team that some are questioning if they will win a game after their 0-4 start. 

I jut think losing their opener at Indiana, a game they should have won and then losing the next week at home to Ohio State, really put this team in a bad spot mentally. I believe it played into losses to both Maryland and Nebraska. 

I got a feeling that being a home dog will light a fire under this team and have them ready to roll against a pretty mediocre Iowa team. Hawkeyes have dominated their last two games against Michigan State and Minnesota, but those are two bad teams. I don't see the Hawkeyes running at will against this Penn State defense and that could make it real hard for their offense to score. 

Another thing to note is I think the offense is going to get more of Will Levis at quarterback, though both him and Sean Clifford are expected to play. Either way I think the Nittany Lions offense will be able to move the ball. Give me Penn State +3! 

50* CARDINALS/SEAHAWKS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY on Seahawks -3

I will gladly lay just a field goal at home with the Seahawks on a short week against a division rival in Arizona. There's a lot to like about Seattle in this spot. For one, everyone is down on this team after back-to-back losses, including an ugly 16-23 loss at the Rams last week. Russell Wilson has went from MVP frontrunner to a guy taking a lot of the blame for the team losing with his costly turnovers. 

Factor all that with the fact that Seattle will be out for revenge from a loss to Arizona earlier this season and I just think we are going to get a big time performance out of not just Wilson but this entire team. At the same time, I think Arizona could struggle in this spot. They are coming off a crazy Hail Mary win over the Bills and it could be hard for them to not have a lull after such an emotional high a few days ago. 

Seattle is a perfect 6-0 ATS under Pete Carroll in home games off a division loss by 7 points or less and have not just won in this spot, they have dominated by an average score of 31.7 to 16.3 Seahawks are also 16-7 ATS in their last 23 revenging a loss of 7-points or less and 20-10 in their last 30 as a home favorite of 7-points or less. Give me Seattle -3! 

50* VIKINGS/BEARS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bears +3.5) 

Love Chicago as a small home dog on MNF. I was hoping the line would get past 3, as the hook is huge. Bears always seem to be in close games.

That's not saying I think they will need it. I'm going to bet on Chicago's defense and hope we get something from an offense that will have a new look to it. 

Let's look at the defense first. Bears have had their way with Minnesota's offense since Cousins came to town. Chicago has swept the season series each of the last two years. All 4 games they held the Vikings offense to 20 or less. 

A big reason they succeed against the Vikings, is they have been able to contain Dalvin Cook. In 3 games against the Bears he's totaled just 86 yards on 34 carries, which is a mere 2.5 yards/carry. Cousins just isn't good enough to win the game on his own against an elite secondary like Chicago. Not to mention he's 0-9 in his career as a starter on Monday Night Football. 

First things first with the Bears offense, the offensive line is a major concern. There's reason to be optimistic that it can make do in this one. Vikings have one of the worst defensive lines in the league. Chicago is also changing things up with the play calling. Head coach Matt Nagy is giving up the duties to Bill Lazor. They also may get a spark at RB, as Lamar Miller is set to make his debut tonight. Give me the Bears +3.5! 

40* BENGALS/STEELERS NFL NO-BRAINER (Bengals +7.5) 

I'm going to take the Cincinnati Bengals +7.5 on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This just feels like a few too many points for the Steelers to be laying at home in this spot. I know the Steelers didn't cover in last week's game against Dallas and nearly lost outright as a two touchdown favorite, but most will just chalk that up as a letdown following their big win against the Ravens. 

Just because they didn't cover in that game doesn't mean they are going to be showing value this week. The books know this is a team the public wants to bet and are going to put a premium on them. I feel like that's exactly what we have here. 

I still have major concerns with the Steelers offense. Pittsburgh is 5th in the NFL scoring 29.4 ppg, but are way back at 25th in the league in total offense at 341.0 ypg.  Nothing speaks more to this than the fact that they had to scratch and claw their way to 24 points against an awful Dallas defense. If the Cowboys can give this offense fits, so can the Bengals. 

As for Cincinnati's offense facing off against a good Steelers defense, I think they can move the ball. Joe Burrow has lived up to the hype of being the No. 1 overall pick and then some. He's currently 8th in the NFL averaging 284 passing yards/game, ahead of the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Tom Brady, Kyler Murray and Drew Brees. If you go back to his days with LSU, Burrow has gone a ridiculous 19-6 (76%) ATS in his last 25 starts. 

Another huge factor here is rest. Pittsburgh has had to play each of the last 3 weeks on the road, as a result of their original Week 8 bye being moved to Week 4 because of their Week 4 game against the Titans getting postponed due to covid. While the Steelers are running on fumes, Cincinnati is going to be extremely fresh coming off their bye week. Give me the Bengals +7.5!

40* SEAHAWKS/RAMS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Rams -1) 

I played and lost on the Seahawks last week. I just want to note that even had Seattle went on to win, I still would be looking to play the Rams at this price. This is an ideal spot to play on Los Angeles, who I have to think has had two really good weeks of practice with their upcoming schedule. After this game they are at Tampa Bay before hosting the 49ers and visiting Arizona (3 division games and 1 of the NFC's best). 

As for the Seahawks, I think we could see a bit of a letdown here. Seattle had to make the long trip clear across the country to play Buffalo and while it's a much shorter trip, they are on the road again this week. 

I also was expecting a lot more out of that defense with the guys they added into the mix. There's clearly still a lot of problems in that secondary. I'm confident McShay will have a gameplan in place to exploit that weakness to the fullest. Give me the Rams -1! 

40* 49ERS/SAINTS NFL ATS MASSACRE (49ers +10) 

I will gladly take the double-digits with San Francisco. Everyone has thrown this 49ers team under the bus, but if you watch this SF team, you know there's no quit in them. They are going to keep coming at you no matter who is out of the lineup. This team is also fresh, as they have been off since last Thursday. 

While we can expect a max effort here from the 49ers, this is a really tough spot for New Orleans. The Saints just played their biggest game of the season. One they won 38-3 despite very few people giving them a chance of winning the game. It's human nature to relax a little after a win of that magnitude, especially when your next game is against a team that you know you are better than. Give me the 49ers +10! 

40* CHARGERS/DOLPHINS NFL STEAMROLLER (Chargers +3) 

I know the Chargers have a way of finding ways to lose games, but every team loses games they should win. It's just magnified when a team does it a lot in a short period of time. This trend only last for so long. You are going to start winning games if you have leads in the 4th quarter every time out. 

I'm a really big Justin Herbert fan. I think the Chargers struck gold with him. If LA was winning these close games instead of losing them, the media hype on Herbert would be 10x more than it is now. He's played 1 fewer game than a lot of guys, so he's just No. 11 in yards, but he's 3rd in the league at 306.6 ypg. Only Dak and Russell Wilson are ahead of him. 

It's not just the yards either. Herbert is not making the costly mistakes at the rate we typically see from young QBs. He's got 17 TD passes to just 5 interceptions. 

I just trust the Chargers offense a lot more. Miam's 2-0 since Tua took over, but have not moved the ball great. They only had 145 total yards and 3.0 yards/play in his first start against the Rams. They put up 34 points on Arizona, but only had 312 yards and 5.6 yards/play. 

I think Tua and that Dolphins offense will find it really hard to score against a Chargers defense that is strong at the point of attack. Give me LA +3! 

50* BILLS/CARDINALS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Cardinals -2) 

I will gladly sell high on the Bills after their big win over the Seahawks last week. I just don't trust Josh Allen, especially on the road. Arizona's defense isn't great, but it is a little better at defending the pass than the run, which is great against a Bills team that can't run the ball. 

On top of that, the Cardinals are going to be extremely motivated in this spot. Arizona was just upset at home 34-31 by the Dolphins. It's a game that couldn't have set well with the players, as they outgained Miami 442 to 312. 

I look for Kyler Murray and that Cardinals offense to have a field day here. Unlike the Seahawks, who couldn't get the run game going against a bad Bills run defense, Arizona will run all over this defense. Cardinals have rushed for 100+ yards in every game. Give me the Cardinals -2! 

40* BROWNS/TEXANS NFL SHARP STAKE (Browns -3) 

I just can't pass up the Browns as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Texans. The books just can't get a price right on Houston. The Texans are just 1-7 ATS this season. They aren't just not covering, they are a mere 2-6 SU. 

I think Houston is really struggling with the reality of not being a playoff team, which they definitely thought they were coming into the year. There's just not enough weapons offensively and the defense can't stop anybody. They just let a 6th round rookie in his first start throw all over them. 

The big key here being they aren't good against the run and we know that if the Browns can get their running game going, this offense can really move the football up and down the field. 

The Texans don't have a running game to fall back on and that's going to make it much easier for Cleveland to put them in some 3rd and long situations and get them off the field. Give me the Browns -3! 

50* BUCS/PANTHERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bucs -5.5) 

I couldn't have been more wrong with Tom Brady and the Bucs in last week's game at home against the Saints on Sunday Night Football. It happens. Tampa Bay got punched in the mouth early and just couldn't get back up off the mat. 

It can be hard to trust a team that looked that bad in their last game, but I love backing good teams in this spot, especially ones with a top tier quarterback. I fully expect Brady and the Bucs to play one of their best games of the season. 

All anyone is talking about is "Teddy Covers", but I just think the Panthers are not the same team without Christian McCaffrey. I just don't think that o-line will be able to hold up against Tampa's pass rush. Give me the Bucs -5.5! 

50* FLORIDA/ARKANSAS NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Arkansas +18) 

I'll take the points here with the Razorbacks, as we will gladly fade No. 6 ranked Florida after last week's huge 44-28 win over Arkansas. Not only do I love the situation here with the Gators primed for a letdown, but this Razorbacks team has been a money-making machine in 2020. 

With last week's come-from-behind win over Tennessee, Arkansas is now 3-3 in SEC play. A remarkable feat given they had a mere 1 conference win over the last 3 seasons combined. Last year they were outgained on average in SEC play by 179 yards/game. This year they are only getting outgained by 25 yards/game. 

You have to give credit for the turnaround to first year head coach Sam Pittman, as well as transfer quarterback Feleipe Franks. In 6 starts, Franks has completed 67% of his attempts for 1,428 yards with a 14-3 TD-INT ratio. Last year in 12 games, Arkansas quarterbacks completed just 49.6% of their attempts for 2,315 yards with a 14-15 TD-INT ratio!

I think Franks and that offense could expose a Florida defense that has been gashed a few times already this season. 

As for the Razorbacks defense, it's kind of built for Florida's high-powered pas attack. Arkansas is only giving up 222 passing yards/game and even more impressive just 6.0 yards/attempt, which is a full 1.2 yards under what their opponents average. Give me the Razorbacks +18! 

50* SMU/TULSA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Tulsa -2) 

Not only do I love Tulsa in this game, but this matchup falls into one of my favorite betting situations for college football. We got an unranked Tulsa team listed as the favorite against a ranked SMU (No. 19) team.

The public loves to back good teams, so no shocker they love to bet ranked teams. They simply won't be able to help themselves when it comes to backing SMU in this game. All they see is the No. 19 team needing to win outright against an unranked opponent. Right now over 60% of the action is on the Mustangs. 

While Tulsa has only been able to play 4 games, they are 3-1 with their only loss being a mere 16-7 loss at Oklahoma State. A game they could have easily won outright. Their very next game after that loss they went on the road and beat UCF 34-26 as a 20.5 point dog. 

What's crazy about Tulsa is their defense has been way better than expected. Golden Hurricane are giving up just 373 yards/game and 4.9 yards/play. Note that's against teams who are averaging 447 ypg and 5.8 yards/play. 

I know this SMU offense is really good behind former Texas quarterback Shane Buechele, but this is not the same explosive offense that we saw start the year, as they have lost an elite playmaker at wide receiver in Reggie Roberson Jr. 

His absence hasn't been felt a ton against most teams, but we did see Buechele and the Mustangs mange just 13 points and 215 passing yards at Cincinnati. Now I know the Bearcats' defense is really good and much better than Tulsa's, but I think it gives us hope with how well the Hurricanes have defended the pass this year. Give me Tulsa -2! 

50* NORTHWESTERN/PURDUE NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Northwestern -3) 

I will gladly lay a field goal with Northwestern on the road against Purdue. Both these teams are undefeated. The Wildcats are sitting at 3-0, while the Boilermakers are 2-0. I think it has them getting a little too much respect in a game where they are going to need to play perfect just to make a game of it. 

Purdue would be 2-1 if last week's game against Wisconsin wasn't cancelled because of Covid. They could have also lost their opener at home against Iowa, which they trailed 20-14 in the 4th quarter. What's even more concerning is in their other win, they barely squeaked by a bad Illinois team 31-24 and were actually outgained by the Illini 472 to 456. 

I not only think the Boilermakers offense is going to have a miserable time moving the ball against one of the Big Ten's best defenses in Northwestern, but I think their defense, which is giving up 466 ypg and 6.1 yards/play will also struggle. Give me the Wildcats -3! 

40* NOTRE DAME/BOSTON COLLEGE NCAAF SHARP STAKE (BC +14) 

I really like Boston College catching two touchdowns against Notre Dame. The Eagles have been better than expected and a big reason for that is first year starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec. 

BC's passing attack hasn't been this good since Matt Ryan was in town. He had the Eagles on the verge of a huge upset a couple weeks back against Clemson. While he only threw for 204 yards, he threw had 2 TDs and 0 picks. He also did it with the offense unable to establish any kind of running game. 

This game is all about Jurkovec, as he got tired of sitting behind Ian Book at Notre Dame and transferred from the program after last season. There's nothing this kind wants more than to show his old team they made a mistake letting him walk out the door. 

40* WAKE FOREST/N CAROLINA NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (Wake Forest +14) 

Give me the Demon Deacons as a two touchdown dog against the Tar Heels. I think Mac Brown has the potential to do some big things going forward with this North Carolina program. I just wonder if people didn't get a little too high on this team a little too early in the process. This is still just year two under Brown. He's got another year or two before he's got a roster made up of only his recruits. 

They are off to a decent 5-2 start, but 4 of those wins have come against the likes of Syracuse, BC, NC State and Duke. The only real quality win was at home against Va Tech and they gave up 45 in the process. Hokies were also still dealing with Covid at that time. 

We have also seen UNC lose to teams they shouldn't. FSU beat them 31-28 as a 13.5-point dog and Virginia knocked them off 44-41 as a 8-point dog. 

I'm not saying they shouldn't be favored at home against Wake Forest, but two touchdowns? This is not a bad Demon Deacons team. They are 4-2 with a 3-point loss at NC State (before they lost their QB) and a mere 37-13 loss at home to Clemson (pretty good when you consider what Clemson does to most other ACC teams). 

They come into this game having won and covered in 4 straight games, as no one wants to give this team any respect. I love that head coach Dave Clawson can continue to play that card in this one. Give me Wake Forest +14! 

40* INDIANA/MICHIGAN ST NCAAF SLAUGHTER (Michigan St +7.5)

I'm going to take the Michigan State Spartans +7.5 at home against the No. 10 ranked Indiana Hoosiers. I just think this line has been inflated quite a bit after what took place last week with Indiana destroying Michigan 38-21 as a 3.5-point dog, while Michigan State got annihilated on the road 49-7 by an Iowa team that had started out 0-2. 

Props to Indiana for starting out 3-0, but I just don't think this is the 10th best team in the country. For starters, they had no business beating Penn State in their opener, as the Nittany Lions held a 488 to 217 edge in total yards. They then beat an improved Rutgers team on the road before crushing what has turned out to be a very overrated Michigan team. 

The same Michigan team that Michigan State went on the road an upset 27-24 as a 21.5-point underdog. For a team that didn't come into the season thinking Big Ten title, there's not a game on the schedule they wanted to win more than that game against Michigan. I'm pissed at myself for not seeing that and taking the Hawkeyes last week. There was just little to no chance the Spartans were going to play well in that game. 

Good thing is the victory hangovers usually are just a 1-week deal and that should definitely be the case here with the No. 10 ranked team in the country coming into your house. 

Going back to Indiana for a minute. I think there's a lot of red flags with the Hoosiers right now. Indiana is 27th in the country averaging 37.0 ppg, but are a mere 102nd in total offense at just 339 yards/game. They are only averaging 4.7 yards/play. They have shown no threat of a running game so far with just 89 yards/game and 2.6 yards/rush. They are actually getting outgained by 25.0 ypg. 

Michigan State actually has better offensive averages with 368 ypg and 5.0 yards/play, yet they are only averaging a mere 20.3 ppg. Spartans are also getting outgained on average in Big Ten play, but only by 9.7 ypg. 

Lastly, this is not a good spot for the Hoosiers. Not only are they coming off a massive home win over Michigan, but their biggest game of the season is looming next week in Columbus as they travel to take on Ohio State. A game that if Indiana were to win would put them in the drivers seat to shock everyone and win the Big Ten East. 

I just think it's going to be really hard for Indiana to show up with the right kind of mindset here to cover this spread and I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Spartans wound up winning this game outright. 

40* MIAMI/VA TECH NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Va Tech -1.5) 

This is one of those plays that you don't have to do a lot of research to get to the selection. This is where you just look at the line and trust the process. 

In this game we have No. 9 Miami as an underdog against an unranked Virginia Tech team. Any time you have an unranked team favored over a team that is ranked in the Top 25, it's nearly automatic that you take the favorite. 

Note this is not something I just do blindly. For example, last week Va Tech was -14 vs No. 25 Liberty and I did not play it. 

Just this season if you took the unranked favorite vs the ranked dog, you would be 58-40-2. That's an exceptional 59% win rate. 

As for the actual game, I like that Va Tech is coming off an upset loss. It's going to ensure that the Hokies are 100% locked in for this game. Not only that, but this is a good Va Tech team that can really run the ball. Khalil Herbert is one of the best backs in the country. He's already got 803 yards and is averaging a ridiculous 8.4 yards/carry on 96 attempts. They also got a QB that can burn you. Hendon Hooker has 515 yards and 8 TDs with a 6.3 average/carry. Note Hooker missed 2.5 games. 

Miami's got a good but not great run defense. Hurricanes are giving up 4.1 yards/carry and we have seen them struggle, giving up over 200 yards to both Louisville and Clemson, as well as 185 against Virginia. Give me the Hokies -1.5! 

50* E MICH/BALL ST NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ball State -8) 

I got no problem here laying single-digits with Ball State at home against Eastern Michigan. There's value here with the Cardinals due to how last week's games played out. Ball State wound up losing 31-38 at Miami,OH, despite outgaining the RedHawks 478 to 422. E Michigan on the other hand covered as a 5.5-point dog in a 23-27 loss at Kent State, but that was more of the Flashes not playing up to their potential. 

I just don't see the Eagles being able to keep pace offensively in this one. Ball State is going to score. The Cardinals have one of the better QBs in the conference in senior Drew Plitt, who threw for 309 yards against the RedHawks. This is one of the better offenses in the conference. 

On the flip side of the ball, Eastern Michigan's offensive line was dominated in their first game by Kent State's front. The Flashes racked up 5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss. Against a much better offense, Ball State had 3 sacks and 10 tackles for loss. You have to believe there's going to be a lot of negative plays for the Eagles, which should allow Ball State's defense to get off the field and create that separation needed to cover this number. Give me the Cardinals -8! 

50* KENT ST/BOWLING GREEN NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Kent State -20.5) 

I will gladly lay less than 3 touchdowns with Kent State against this Bowling Green team. Akron is without question the worst team in the MAC, but I don't think the Falcons are far behind the Zips. There's such a big gap between the those two and the next best team that I think we can sometimes find value going against them. 

I love this Kent State team. Not only do they got a star in the making in 34-year-old head coach (youngest in FBS) Sean Lewis, but they are loaded with talent. They got the best QB in the conference in Dustin Crum and while everyone is debating between Miami and Buffalo as the best team in the MAC East, it just might be this Kent State team. 

The Flashes didn't play well in their opener, but found a way to hold on for a 27-23 win over Eastern Michigan. Listening to the post game press conferences, it was clear they were not happy with how they played. They expected more out of themselves. 

I got a feeling Kent State is out to make a statement tonight. That could be bad news for Bowling Green. Last year the Flashes whooped up on the Falcons 62-10, accumulating 750 total yards with exactly 375 passing and rushing. 

I don't know how Bowling Green is going to be able to score to keep pace. Falcons starting quarterback Matt McDonald was just 8 of 30 for 128 yards against Toledo. BG clearly lacks a passing attack. That's a big problem against this Kent State defensive front Flashes limited E Mich to just 61 rushing yards on 32 attempts. They recorded 5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss. Give me Kent State -20.5! 

50* SAINTS/BUCS NFC SOUTH PLAY OF THE YEAR (Bucs -4) 

I love Tom Brady and the Bucs at this price. I don't know how you can bet against Tampa Bay in this spot. How many prime time home games did Brady ever let New England lose, especially in the 2nd half of the season? 

Like it or not the Bucs have assembled quite the super team in the NFC and will be debuting Antonio Brown this week. If Brown can just shut up and play football, this could be quite the combo in TB. While it make take a game or two for Brown to get up to speed, keep in mind he does have some built up chemistry with Brown from his brief stint with the Pats last year. 

I know New Orleans is getting back their star wide out in Michael Thomas, but I'm just not convinced he's going to fix this offense. Brees just doesn't have the arm strength to threat defenses with the deep pass. I think it could be a recipe for disaster against a Bucs defense that likes to play downhill. We all saw what this defense did when it was locked in against Rodgers and the Packers a few weeks ago. 

I simply trust the Bucs offense a lot more to move the ball and put up points in this one. Brady and Tampa Bay get their revenge from an earlier loss at New Orleans (Week 1 and Brady played bad). Give me the Bucs -4! 

40* RAIDERS/CHARGERS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Chargers PK) 

While I was happy the Chargers collapsed in last week's shocking 30-31 loss to the Broncos (I had Denver +3), I think it has Los Angeles a bit undervalued here at home against the Raiders. I don't know if it's because the Raiders are now in Las Vegas, but the public really seems to love this team. 

Coming off a 16-6 win in nearly the same role last week at Cleveland, the public is all over the Raiders here at basically a pick'em on the road against a division rival. I just don't see what people love about this team. 

Raiders got a decent offense, but I would take Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense over them. Raiders are averaging 379 yards/game and 5.9 yards/play. Good, but LA is averaging 417 ypg and 6 yards/play. 

Defensively Las Vegas is a clear step behind. The Raiders are giving up 29.0 ppg, 378 ypg and 6.2 yards/play. They are also giving up 140 rushing yards/game and 5.1 yards/carry on the road this year. I just think LA is the better team in this one. Give me the Chargers PK! 

40* TEXANS/JAGUARS NFL ATS SLAUGHTER (Texans -6.5) 

As difficult as it may be to lay almost a touchdown on the road with a team that is sitting at 1-6 going into Week 9, I can't help myself but to play the Texans on Sunday. 

I know the chances are slim but I guarantee you this Texans team still believes they can get back into the playoff race. When you look at the schedule, it's not all that crazy. Houston's last 9 games are @ Jags, @ Browns, vs Pats, @ Lions, vs Colts, @ Bears, @ Colts, vs Bengals and vs Texans. They might be favored in as many as 6 of those and all 9 are winnable. 

While the Texans are holding onto what little hope they have, the Jaguars are starting to look ahead to the future. With Gardner Minshew out of the lineup with a thumb injury, Jacksonville is turning to 6th round rookie Jake Luton to see what he's got. Note veteran Mike Glennon has been the backup in every game up this point and was just passed over. 

I not only think Luton is behind the 8-ball, as he's a guy that probably really would have benefited from preseason games. I also wonder if Jacksonville isn't trying to lose while making it appear they are playing to win. There's no bath back to the postseason for this team, especially with Minshew sidelined. 

Houston already beat the Jags 30-14 at home early this season and there was nothing fluky about that result. I'm confident they can go into Jacksonville and win by at least 7. Give me the Texans -6.5! 

40* SEAHAWKS/BILLS NFL NO-BRAINER (Seahawks -2.5) 

I'm going to take the Seattle Seahawks -2.5 on the road against the Buffalo Bills. I know this is going to be a big public play and small road favorites have a way of coming up short in the NFL, but I just can't help myself. 

I'm just not a believer in this Bills team. I especially don't think they are as good as their 6-2 record, which is currently tied with GB and TB for the 3rd best record in the league. No bigger reason screams that Buffalo record is not all it seems than the fact that 2 of their 6 wins are against the Jets. And let's not overlook that while they won both, they unlike almost every other team struggled to be the Jets in both meetings. 

They have 3 more wins by a field goal or less. One of those being last week's win over the Patriots. A win is a win, but if Cam Newton doesn't fumble late in the 4th quarter, that game at worst goes to OT, as NE was well within field goal range. They were on the 19 with 40 seconds on the clock and 2 timeouts in their pocket. 

I get the Bills hadn't beat the Pats at home since 2011 and that's a huge win for them in regards to winning the division, but let's not just  overlook how bad the Patriots were playing going into that game. 

The big thing that stands out to me is the defense just can't stop the run. They are giving up 134 yards/game and 4.7 yards/carry. I know the run game isn't exactly Seattle's strength, but if you can't stop the run, it makes it near impossible to stop Russell Wilson. 

Lastly and the biggest reason I'm willing to roll the dice with Seattle is I think this team is on the verge of turning the corner on the defensive side of the ball.  We definitely saw some flashes on that side in last week's game against the 49ers. San Francisco ended up scoring 27, but the 49ers only had 7 points with less than 10 minutes to play in the 4th. 

This week Seattle's defense will be adding in defensive end Carlos Dunlap, who they made a trade for prior to the 49ers came, but because of covid rules had to sit out that game. They also will be getting back star safety Jamal Adams from injury and it's expected that Damon "Snacks" Harrison will be making his debut after spending the last 3 weeks on the practice squad getting back into game shape. 

This team has gone 6-1 with a defense that has been performing at the bottom of the league. If they make any kind of significant improvement on that side of the ball, they might just be the team to beat with that offense. Either way, give me the Seahawks -2.5 on Sunday! 

40* LIONS/VIKINGS NFL STEAMROLLER (Vikings -4) 

I'm going to jump on the Minnesota bandwagon, as it feels like the Vikings are playing much closer to what we expected to start the year and not what their 2-5 record would lead you to believe. 

I was really impressed with last week's win at Green Bay, as that was one I didn't see coming. I think that win could be a turning point. Usually if you start 2-5 you are dead in the water. I don't know that's the case. With 7 teams (may go to 8) making the playoffs this year, more teams have a shot. 

Also the Vikings have to believe they can get back to .500 before the stretch run. After hosting Detroit, they are @ Chicago, before 3 more home games against the Cowboys, Panthers and Jaguars. It's not out of the question this team is 7-5 or 6-6 going into their Week 14 showdown with Tom Brady and the Bucs. 

Dalvin Cook did it all for that offense against the Packers and when he's going good, this is a much stronger team. Seeing how the Lions are giving up 130 rushing yards/game and 4.3 yards/carry, this should be another big week for Cook. 

The Lions are also just not a very good team. Stafford is questionable with Covid and they got all kinds of guys showing up on the injury report this week. Minnesota's been hit hard with injuries as well, especially on defense, but most of those came early. They clearly have made some improvements, as they gave up 43 points and over 500 yards to Green Bay back in Week 1. Give me the Vikings -4!