40* RAIDERS/CHARGERS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Chargers PK) 

While I was happy the Chargers collapsed in last week's shocking 30-31 loss to the Broncos (I had Denver +3), I think it has Los Angeles a bit undervalued here at home against the Raiders. I don't know if it's because the Raiders are now in Las Vegas, but the public really seems to love this team. 

Coming off a 16-6 win in nearly the same role last week at Cleveland, the public is all over the Raiders here at basically a pick'em on the road against a division rival. I just don't see what people love about this team. 

Raiders got a decent offense, but I would take Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense over them. Raiders are averaging 379 yards/game and 5.9 yards/play. Good, but LA is averaging 417 ypg and 6 yards/play. 

Defensively Las Vegas is a clear step behind. The Raiders are giving up 29.0 ppg, 378 ypg and 6.2 yards/play. They are also giving up 140 rushing yards/game and 5.1 yards/carry on the road this year. I just think LA is the better team in this one. Give me the Chargers PK! 

40* TEXANS/JAGUARS NFL ATS SLAUGHTER (Texans -6.5) 

As difficult as it may be to lay almost a touchdown on the road with a team that is sitting at 1-6 going into Week 9, I can't help myself but to play the Texans on Sunday. 

I know the chances are slim but I guarantee you this Texans team still believes they can get back into the playoff race. When you look at the schedule, it's not all that crazy. Houston's last 9 games are @ Jags, @ Browns, vs Pats, @ Lions, vs Colts, @ Bears, @ Colts, vs Bengals and vs Texans. They might be favored in as many as 6 of those and all 9 are winnable. 

While the Texans are holding onto what little hope they have, the Jaguars are starting to look ahead to the future. With Gardner Minshew out of the lineup with a thumb injury, Jacksonville is turning to 6th round rookie Jake Luton to see what he's got. Note veteran Mike Glennon has been the backup in every game up this point and was just passed over. 

I not only think Luton is behind the 8-ball, as he's a guy that probably really would have benefited from preseason games. I also wonder if Jacksonville isn't trying to lose while making it appear they are playing to win. There's no bath back to the postseason for this team, especially with Minshew sidelined. 

Houston already beat the Jags 30-14 at home early this season and there was nothing fluky about that result. I'm confident they can go into Jacksonville and win by at least 7. Give me the Texans -6.5! 

40* SEAHAWKS/BILLS NFL NO-BRAINER (Seahawks -2.5) 

I'm going to take the Seattle Seahawks -2.5 on the road against the Buffalo Bills. I know this is going to be a big public play and small road favorites have a way of coming up short in the NFL, but I just can't help myself. 

I'm just not a believer in this Bills team. I especially don't think they are as good as their 6-2 record, which is currently tied with GB and TB for the 3rd best record in the league. No bigger reason screams that Buffalo record is not all it seems than the fact that 2 of their 6 wins are against the Jets. And let's not overlook that while they won both, they unlike almost every other team struggled to be the Jets in both meetings. 

They have 3 more wins by a field goal or less. One of those being last week's win over the Patriots. A win is a win, but if Cam Newton doesn't fumble late in the 4th quarter, that game at worst goes to OT, as NE was well within field goal range. They were on the 19 with 40 seconds on the clock and 2 timeouts in their pocket. 

I get the Bills hadn't beat the Pats at home since 2011 and that's a huge win for them in regards to winning the division, but let's not just  overlook how bad the Patriots were playing going into that game. 

The big thing that stands out to me is the defense just can't stop the run. They are giving up 134 yards/game and 4.7 yards/carry. I know the run game isn't exactly Seattle's strength, but if you can't stop the run, it makes it near impossible to stop Russell Wilson. 

Lastly and the biggest reason I'm willing to roll the dice with Seattle is I think this team is on the verge of turning the corner on the defensive side of the ball.  We definitely saw some flashes on that side in last week's game against the 49ers. San Francisco ended up scoring 27, but the 49ers only had 7 points with less than 10 minutes to play in the 4th. 

This week Seattle's defense will be adding in defensive end Carlos Dunlap, who they made a trade for prior to the 49ers came, but because of covid rules had to sit out that game. They also will be getting back star safety Jamal Adams from injury and it's expected that Damon "Snacks" Harrison will be making his debut after spending the last 3 weeks on the practice squad getting back into game shape. 

This team has gone 6-1 with a defense that has been performing at the bottom of the league. If they make any kind of significant improvement on that side of the ball, they might just be the team to beat with that offense. Either way, give me the Seahawks -2.5 on Sunday! 

40* LIONS/VIKINGS NFL STEAMROLLER (Vikings -4) 

I'm going to jump on the Minnesota bandwagon, as it feels like the Vikings are playing much closer to what we expected to start the year and not what their 2-5 record would lead you to believe. 

I was really impressed with last week's win at Green Bay, as that was one I didn't see coming. I think that win could be a turning point. Usually if you start 2-5 you are dead in the water. I don't know that's the case. With 7 teams (may go to 8) making the playoffs this year, more teams have a shot. 

Also the Vikings have to believe they can get back to .500 before the stretch run. After hosting Detroit, they are @ Chicago, before 3 more home games against the Cowboys, Panthers and Jaguars. It's not out of the question this team is 7-5 or 6-6 going into their Week 14 showdown with Tom Brady and the Bucs. 

Dalvin Cook did it all for that offense against the Packers and when he's going good, this is a much stronger team. Seeing how the Lions are giving up 130 rushing yards/game and 4.3 yards/carry, this should be another big week for Cook. 

The Lions are also just not a very good team. Stafford is questionable with Covid and they got all kinds of guys showing up on the injury report this week. Minnesota's been hit hard with injuries as well, especially on defense, but most of those came early. They clearly have made some improvements, as they gave up 43 points and over 500 yards to Green Bay back in Week 1. Give me the Vikings -4! 

40* GIANTS/REDSKINS NFL CASH COW (Football Team -2.5) 

I just feel like this is way too much value here with Washington laying less than a field goal at home against the Giants. This is all about the spot for me, which I feel heavily favors the home team. 

Washington is coming off their bye week, one in which they went into off a 25-3 blowout win over rival Dallas, which snapped a 5-game skid. Most are going to write off that win over the Cowboys and I don't blame them, but I still think it's huge that they went into their bye with a positive result. 

I believe it will carry over to a big effort against a division rival, one they nearly beat on the road a few weeks back, losing 19-20. Washington went for 2 instead of kicking the extra point after scoring a late TD. They also outgained the Giants 337 to 240. 

While Washington has had extra time to prepare, New York is playing on short rest after their big showdown with Tom Brady and the Bucs on Monday Night Football. Giants were competitive in a 23-25 loss as a 13-point dog and I think people are using the logic that if NY can play TB tough, they can easily beat Washington. 

I just don't know if that's a solid way of looking at it. The Giants aren't playing for anything but pride in 2020. You think they are going to have the same level of intensity on the road against a bad team they already beat as they had against Brady and the Bucs? I don't think so, and coming off that big game only makes it more likely they fall flat on their face in this one. Give me the Redskins -2.5! 

50* RAVENS/COLTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ravens -2)

I absolutely love Baltimore in this spot. Everyone is down on the Ravens right now. This team has went from AFC favorite to many people's third best option behind KC and Pittsburgh. I know some key guys are out, but this is a deep and talented roster. This is the team I want to be backing with their backs against the wall. 

I know Lamar Jackson hasn't played well in some of their losses, but let's not overlook the fact that they outgained the Steelers last week 457 to 221. If they don't turn it over 4 times, they win that game going away. Keep in mind Baltimore only had 5 turnovers all season before that game. 

No disrespect to the Colts, who I was on last week and have played a lot early on, but I just don't think home field is going to be enough for them to beat the Ravens in this spot. Indy was on the other end of a misleading scoreboard. Not saying Colts shouldn't have won, but they won by 20 despite only outgaining the Lions 366 to 326. 

I just don't think Indy as good as their 5-2 record. Their wins are against the Vikings (early on), Jets, Bears, Bengals and Lions. The only one of those teams with a winning record is Chicago, who is 5-3 with all 5 wins decided by 7 or fewer points. Give me the Ravens -2! 

40* WASHINGTON ST/OREGON ST NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Oregon St -1.5) 

I will gladly take Oregon State at home at basically a pick'em against Washington State. I think these are two programs headed in different directions in 2020. The Beavers are now in year 3 under head coach Jonathan Smith. 

He took over a team that went just 1-11 and was off 4 straight losing seasons. They went just 2-12 in his first year, but improved to 5-7 last year with a 4-5 mark in league play (only had 6 conference wins over the previous 5 seasons). 

They lose some big pieces on offense, but this offense has performed well under offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren and have some talent to work with. They also have 9 starters back from a defense that made massive improvements last year. While they gave up 32.5 ppg and 446 ypg, they allowed 45.7 ppg and 537 ypg the year before. 

As for Washington State, they begin a new era after head coach Mike Leach left to take over at Mississippi State. They also lost their stud QB in Anthony Gordon, who threw for 48 touchdowns and over 5,500 yards. I just don't trust the plug-and-play approach that has worked so well without Leach and a new offense. 

They are also got a new DC who wants to play a more physical style when all the guys that were recruited were small and fast guys. I just think they are going to struggle on both sides of the ball,especially early on. Give me Oregon State -1.5! 

40* STANFORD/OREGON NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (Stanford +10.5) 

I'm going to take the Stanford Cardinal +10.5 on the road against the No. 12 ranked Oregon Ducks. This is the first game for both teams, as the Pac-12 finally gets their 2020 season started. 

That's important to note, as this line feels like a big overreaction to last year, which saw Oregon go 12-2 and just miss out on the playoffs, while Stanford had one of it's worst season in decades with a record of 4-8. 

I'm going to start with Oregon. I just don't think this year's Ducks team is going to be anything close to last year. They lost one of the best players in the country in quarterback Justin Herbert, who threw for nearly 3,500 yards with a 32-6 TD-INT ratio. A loss that I feel has to be magnified even more when you look at how well Herbert is playing in the NFL. He's right there with Joe Burrow for rookie of the year. I just don't see anyway this offense mirrors anything to the unit that put up 35.4 ppg and 433 ypg.

And it's not just the loss of Herbert that has me thinking this. Oregon lost their left tackle, who many have rated as the best LT prospect for next year's draft. He was the only starter coming back on the o-line. I know the Ducks recruit well, but an inexperienced line and raw signal caller is usually a recipe for disaster. 

Also with starting corner Thomas Graham and safety Brady Breeze opting out, Oregon goes from having 4 of their top 6 tacklers back to only 2. Note one of the other guys they lost was All-American linebacker and leading tackler Troy Dye. 

As for Stanford, I'm putting my trust in David Shaw and his staff to get this team back to the level it was prior to last year's dip. Injuries played a massive role to them underperforming. They had to go thru 3 different starting QBs and had 3 true freshmen starting on the o-line. 

I like what they have in junior quarterback Davis Mills, but even more so the fact that they got 4 starters back on the 0-line. I also think we might see a dynamic duo emerge at running back with sophomore Austin Jones and true freshman EJ Smith. Both very highly touted of HS and for those that don't know, EJ is the son of NFL Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith. 

The defense doesn't figure to be elite like it had been for such a long time, but with 7 starters back and so many young guys getting experience last year because of injuries, this unit should be a much better version than last year's. Give me Stanford +10.5 

*Still recommend a play on the Cardinal at +7.5 or better. 

50* BAYLOR/ISU *BIG 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH* (Iowa State -13.5)

I will gladly lay less than two touchdowns with Iowa State at home against Baylor. I've faded the Bears each of the last 3 weeks with success. I just don't think people realize just how bad this Baylor team is. 

The Bears only win this season came in their opener against Kansas, which they won rather convincingly 47-14. However, they only outgained the Jayhawks 352 to 328. They are better than Kansas, but I also think they are closer to Kansas in terms of talent than they are the rest of the Big 12. 

The biggest thing with Baylor is their offense is anemic. They are averaging 26.8 ppg, but only 300 ypg and that's against defenses that on average give up 374 ypg. In their last 3 games combined, they have scored a mere 24 points over the 1st three quarters of the game. 

Iowa State has one of the best defenses in the conference and we can count on the Cyclones being locked in the rest of the way. ISU wins out and they are going to be in the Big 12 title game. I wouldn't be shocked here at all if Baylor scores 10 or fewer. 

Iowa State averages 32.0 ppg and are coming in confident on offense after scoring 52 points and racking up 552 yards in a win over Kansas. If they score just 30 here they should cover with ease. Give me the Cyclones -13.5! 

40* PITT/FLORIDA ST NCAAF CASH COW (Pittsburgh +2.5) 

I was surprised to see the public backing Florida State as heavily as they are (close to 60% action on Seminoles), but that only makes me like Pittsburgh that much more in this one. I think people are holding on to FSU's big 31-28 upset win at home over then No. 5 North Carolina. 

If the Seminoles were the real deal, they wouldn't have followed up that win with a 48-16 loss to Louisville. A game they were only a 5.5-point dog in. Sophomore quarterback Jordan Travis has given this team some life since replacing James Blackman, but he's really a running back with a decent arm at quarterback. He's only completed 50.5% of his attempts with a 4-4 TD-INT ratio. 

I just think for the Seminoles offense to have success they have to be able to run the ball (241 rushing yards vs UNC). That's the problem. Pitt is a very strong defensive team that is built to stop the run. Panthers are allowing just 69 yards/game and 2.0 yards/carry vs the run. They are giving up just 298 yards/game and 4.4 yards/play. 

Just to put that in comparison, Florida State gives up 209 yards/game and 5.6 yards/carry vs the run and allow 490 yards/game and 7.0 yards/play. I know the Pitt offense is bad, but I feel like they are the only offense that will be able to move the ball. Give me the Panthers +2.5! 

50* FLORIDA/GEORGIA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Georgia -3) 

I love the value here with Georgia laying only a field goal against the Gators. I just think the Bulldogs are an elite team and are still a bit undervalued from that ugly loss to Alabama. One in which they didn't follow up well, beating Kentucky by a final of just 14-3 as a 17-point favorite. That was on the road and a bad spot with this massive game on deck. 

For me it's pretty simple. I think Georgia's defense is good enough to keep Florida's offense in check. Gators have lit up the scoreboard, but they also haven't played the toughest defenses to this point. Keep in mind Florida put up big points in most of their games last year and only managed 17 points in a 24-17 loss to Georgia. 

On the other side of the ball, I look for the Bulldogs to be able to move the ball against a Florida defense that has not been good. Gators are giving up 433 yards/game and 5.8 yards/play. That's with them only giving up 248 yards last week to Missouri. We saw them give up 500+ to Ole Miss and Texas A&M. I really think this line should be closer to a TD. Give me the Bulldogs -3! 

50* ARIZONA ST/ USC NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (USC -10.5) 

I think most people look at this line and immediately look to taking the points with Arizona State and that's definitely been the case so far, as close to 65% of the action is on the Sun Devils. Any time the public is on a dog in a big game, I love to go the other way and that's exactly what I'll do here. 

What people love about the points and Arizona State is they have a big talent at quarterback in Jayden Daniels coming back. What they overlook is an offense that lost star running back Eno Benjamin and two of their top 3 wide outs including a big time talent in Brandon Aiyuk. Those 3 players (including Benjamin) accounted for 152 of Daniels 205 completions last year.

Sun Devils also lost 3 starters on the o-line and while new defensive coordinator Marvin Lewis is a big name, he's transforming the D from a 3 man front to a 4 man front. 

I just don't see Arizona State keeping pace offensively with what is going to be one of the most explosive offenses in the country. When JT Daniels got hurt last year, it opened the door for true freshman Kedon Slovis and in 11 starts he threw for 3,500 yards with 30 TDs to 9 interceptions. 

USC does lose their top wide out in Pittman, but get basically the rest of the offense back. They also add in red-shirt freshman wide out Bru McCoy, who was the #1 rated WR in his class out of high school. Give me the Trojans -10.5! 

50* MIAMI/NC STATE NCAAF *ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH* (NC State +11)

I really like the value we are getting with NC State as a double-digit home dog against Miami. No one is giving the Wolfpack any shot in this game and I think it makes them a dangerous underdog at home in a prime time game. 

If you have followed this Miami team at all in recent years, they have a way of losing these games where they are favored to win easily. Just last year they lost outright as a 14-point favorite to Va Tech, 20-point favorite to Georgia Tech and 20-point favorite to FIU. The first of those two coming on their own turf. 

It would not shock me at all if they lost this game. I get Miami's 5-1, but their best wins are against the likes of Louisville, FSU, Pittsburgh and Virginia. All of those teams currently have losing records. 

NC State is 4-2 and while they aren't the same team they were before losing starting quarterback Devin Leary to a season ending injury, I think they could be alright. While junior Bailey Hockman figures to start, I think we could see more of true freshman Ben Finley, who is the younger brother of former great NC State quarterback Ryan Finley. 

Ben Finley got in their blowout loss against UNC and impressed and I expect him to play a good amount in this game. 

I also have confidence that we will see a better NC State defense in this one. Wolf Pack didn't tackle well at all (missed 27 tackles) against UNC. The defense took ownership of that poor effort and I think we see a defense that is flying around the field in this one. 

I also think it's big getting two weeks to prepare for this game, as it allows them to prepare better for the dual threat ability of Miami quarterback D'Erig King. 

Also, you want to fade Miami in this spot. Hurricanes are 0-7 ATS last 7 times they played a game coming off a home conference win. They are also 0-6 ATS last 6 times coming off a bye. Give me the WolfPack +11! 

40* UTAH ST/NEVADA NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Nevada -15) 

I'm going to lay the points with the Wolf Pack at home against Utah State on Thursday night. For me it's the simple fact that I don't see any way this Aggies offense can score enough to keep this close. 

Utah State's offense was expected to take a step back this year after losing a big time talent in QB Jordan Love. It looks like they may have fallen off a cliff offensively. Aggies only managed 13 points and 203 yards of total offense in a 42-13 loss at Boise State to open the year. That same Boise State defense just gave up 30 points and 484 yards last week to Air Force. The same Falcons offense that only managed 298 in their opener against San Jose State. 

In last week's game against San Diego State they totaled just 7 points and 215 total yards. Their only score coming on a Hail Mary type of play at the end of the 1st half. 

Defensively the Aggies gave up 42 points and 450 yards to the Broncos and 38 points aon 570 yards to the Aztecs. Now they face one of the most potent offenses in the MWC in Nevada. One that has a talented sophomore quarterback in Carson Strong, who threw for 420 yards and 4 scores against a good Wyoming defense in their opener and had another 350 yards and 2 scores last week at UNLV. Give me the Wolf Pack -15! 

50* E MICH/KENT ST NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Kent State -6) 

I will gladly take my chances here with the Golden Flashes laying less than a touchdown at home against Eastern Michigan. Kent State is a program on the rise under third year head coach Sean Lewis, who is the youngest HC at the collegiate level at just 34-years-old. 

When he took over in 2018 this team had 5 straight seasons with 4 or fewer wins. The Golden Flashes did go just 2-10 in his first year on the job, but improved to 7-6 last year. Their 5 conference wins were half what they had the previous 6 years (10). 

This year's team is even stronger. Kent State brings back 13 starters, including the best QB in the MAC in senior Dustin Crum. Last year Crum completed 69% of his attempts with a 20-2 TD-INT ratio. He also led the team in rushing with 707 yards and 6 scores. 

Note that in last year's 7-6 finish, 3 of their 6 losses were on the road against Arizona State, Auburn and Wisconsin. Their 3 conferences losses were all by 7 or fewer. 

Eastern Michigan is one of the least experienced teams not just in the MAC, but the country. On offense they lose their top RB, WR and dual threat QB Mike Glass. On defense they lose 3 of their top 4 tacklers from a unit that gave up 30.6 ppg and 430 ypg. 

I just don't think we are still getting value with Kent State and not a surprise as these teams that go from being awful to great tend to hold their value a little longer. Give me the Golden Flashes -6! 

40* BUCS/GIANTS MNF VEGAS INSIDER (Bucs -12) 

I don't love laying big numbers like this, but I just can't get myself to take the Giants in this game. I just don't see how New York is going to move the football against this Bucs defense. In their last 3 games the Giants are averaging a respectable 25 ppg, but those 3 have come against their 3 division rivals. In the 4 games they have played outside the division, they are averaging a mere 11.8 ppg. 

I think a lot of attention with the Bucs falls on Tom Brady and the offense, but the defense has really caught my eye. Bucs are really strong up front. You can forget about running on this team. Tampa Bay is allowing a league low 66.0 rushing yards/game. A full 14 yards better than the next best team in the Colts, who give up 80 ypg and 24 ahead of No. 3 New Orleans who allows 91 ypg. 

They aren't as good against the pass, but still very formidable. They have held 4 of their 7 opponents under 210 yards passing. They are also T-3rd in the league with 25 sacks. That pass rush should have a field day here against a bad Giants offensive line. They really make opposing QBs play fast and if you have watched Daniel Jones that's not his strength. 

Even if Brady and the Bucs offense struggles some, which I don't think it will, they should have such great field position all night that winning here by two touchdowns should be no problem. Give me Tampa Bay -12! 

40* SAINTS/BEARS NFL STEAMROLLER (Bears +4.5) 

I played against the Bears on MNF and cashed relatively easy on the Rams -6. I just didn't love that spot at all for Chicago. It's the exact opposite this week. I'll take the 4.5-points with the Bears at home. 

I know the offense leaves a lot to be desired, but this Chicago defense is the real deal and I expect them to be playing with a chip on their shoulder in this one. Even if Michael Thomas plays, I still like the Bears to make it difficult on Drew Brees. 

One thing to note with the Saints. This will be their first game this season outdoors. Each of their first 6 have been in a dome, with 4 of the 6 at home. 

I'm also not so sure the Saints are as good as we thought. I think they caught a break playing the Bucs in Week 1. Their other 3 wins are against the Lions, Chargers and Panthers. All 3 decided by 6 or less. 

I also feel like this is a flat spot for New Orleans, having won 3 straight and having a huge division game on deck at Tampa Bay. Speaking of the Bucs, the Bears responded from their only other loss this year by beating Brady and the Bucs at home as a 3.5-point dog. Very similar spot. Give me Chicago +4.5! 

40* CHARGERS/BRONCOS NFL CASH COW (Broncos +3) 

I think a lot of people are going to look at the Chargers as a mere 3-point road favorite against the Broncos and think they are undervalued. I just don't think that's the case. I've been on LA quite a bit since Herbert took over, but I think the books are making this a little too easy to take them. No one wants to take the Broncos and basically need them to win outright to cover. 

I watched the Chiefs/Broncos game last week and while it was a blowout, that Denver defense really gave Mahomes and that KC offense trouble. Chiefs only had 286 total yards of offense. Mahomes threw just 1 TD pass and it wasn't until the 4th quarter. 

With all the injuries that have been starting to pile up on the offensive line, I think that Denver front is going to get after Herbert and we see him come down to earth a little in this one. 

Broncos are 4-2 ATS this year and have been a dog in every game so far. They could easily be 4-2 instead of 2-4. 

Denver has thrived in this spot, going 12-3 ATS last 15 at home off a division loss by 10 or more. Not only do they cover, but they are winning by 12.5 ppg (28.2-15.7). Give me the Broncos +3! 

40* RAMS/DOLPHINS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Dolphins +3.5) 

40* RAIDERS/BROWNS NFL SHARP STAKE (Browns -2.5) 

I just can't help myself here with Cleveland laying less than a field goal at home against the Raiders. I just don't know what the books see in this LV team. I get it, they beat the Chiefs, but how much of that was KC not playing their best? I think a lot. 

It's just hard to win in the NFL, especially on the road, when you have a defense as bad as the Raiders. Everyone talks about how bad Dallas' defense is and the Cowboys do rank dead last in the NFL, allowing 34.7 ppg. Las Vegas is right behind them at 32.8 ppg. They are giving up a horrific 6.4 yards/play and have not been able to stop the run or the pass. 

Browns won't have OBJ, but he didn't play much in Cleveland's last game and Mayfield had his best game of the year by far with 297 yards and 5 scores. Rashad Higgins filled in nicely and led the team with 6 catches for 110 yards. 

Big thing here is weather. There's a decent chance of rain with howling winds at close to 25 mph. It's going to be about who can run. Cleveland averages 5.1 yards/carry and will be facing a Raiders D that allows 4.6 ypc. Las Vegas only averages 4.0 yards/carry and Browns allow just 3.8 ypc. Give me Cleveland -2.5! 

40* COLTS/LIONS NFL NO-BRAINER (Colts -2.5) 

I think we are getting an exceptional gift here with Indy laying less than a field goal at Detroit. The Colts will be returning from their bye, which means they will have a full two weeks to prepare for a bad Lions team. One that should be 2-4 if not for the Falcons completely botching the end of the game last week. 

I just don't see this Detroit offense being able to do a whole lot against a very good Colts defense. One that will be getting back one of their best players in linebacker Darius Leonard. He's been out the last two games and it's shown. In the two games he missed, Indy allowed 32 points and 385 yards in a loss at Cleveland and then 27 points and 398 to Joe Burrow and the Bengals. In the 4 games he played, Indy has not allowed more than 270 total yards. 

On the flip side of this, the Colts offense should be able to find some success against a bad Lions defense. Detroit is giving up 27.5 ppg 5.9 yards/play and 380 yards/game. They haven't really been good against the run or the pass. Give me the Colts -2.5! 

50* STEELERS/RAVENS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ravens -3) 

I got no problem paying a little extra to get the Ravens down to -3, as I feel really good about them not losing at that price. To me it feels like when Baltimore got embarrassed at home by the Chiefs on MNF back in Week 3, people started questioning how good this Ravens team. 

I think that's a mistake. This team has won 3 straight since that loss. The first two weren't close, as they took out Washington 31-17 on the road and then beat the Bengals 27-3 at home. They did only beat the Eagles by 2, 30-28, but that was a very misleading score. Ravens took their foot off the gas in a game they were in complete control of and it nearly cost them. 

Now they are coming out of their bye week and everyone is calling for the Steelers to win this game. Even though Baltimore is the favorite, I think they kind of feel disrespected and are going to treat this more like they are the underdog. I think that makes them a real scary team in this spot. 

I like Pittsburgh, but I just don't know if they are as gooda s people think. Their two best wins are against the Titans and Browns. They have also benefited from getting to play 4 of 6 at home. First time all year they will be on the road in back-to-back weeks. 

I just feel the Ravens are the better team on both sides of the ball. Give me Baltimore -3! 

40* OLE MISS/VANDY NCAAF SLAUGHTER (Ole Miss -16.5) 

One of our few losers last week in college football was a really tough break on Ole Miss +3.5 at home against Auburn. Rebels gave up a 58-yard TD pass with 1:11 left to play leading 28-27. If they don't give up the big play, worst case Auburn goes down and wins on a field goal 30-27. 

Those ones always sting a little more, but it's not enough to keep me from firing back with Ole Miss this week at Vanderbilt. I just don't feel like the number here is near enough. Vanderbilt played a surprisingly close game at Texas A&M in their opener, losing 17-12 as a 31.5-point favorite. 

They still only had 250 yards of total offense in that game. After scoring just 7 in each of their next two games, the Commodores have a whopping 26 total points scored in 3 games. They are averaging 3.9 yards/play and that's against teams that give up 6.4 yards/play. The fact that they could only score 7 points and total just 266 yards against LSU at home, tells you everything you need to know about how bad this offense is. 

The defense that was so good against Texas A&M, has given up 41 to both LSU and South Carolina. Ole Miss can score points and are going to be hungry having lost 3 straight. I just don't see Vanderbilt doing anywhere close to enough offensively to keep this respectable. Give me Ole Miss -16.5! 

50* TCU/BAYLOR NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (TCU -2.5) 

I have a feeling I'm going to be betting against Baylor a lot this year. I played against them last week with Texas and the Longhorns won 27-16 as a 8.5-point favorite (wasn't that close). In their previous game I played against them with West Virginia as a 3-point home dog and the Mountaineers won 27-21. 

I'll gladly lay less than a field goal with TCU on the road against the Bears this week. Baylor has one of the most anemic offenses of any Power 5 program. The only reason they are averaging 28.0 ppg instead of 18.0 ppg is because they have already played Kansas. 

They only had 256 total yards in their game against West Virginia and 316 last week against Texas. In both of those games they went into the 4th quarter with 7 or fewer points. 

TCU comes into this one having just got the doors kicked in by Oklahoma at home, losing 33-14 as a mere 7-point dog. Horned Frogs are now just 1-3 on the season, but could easily be 3-1. I think if Duggan plays the entire game and not just the 2nd half, they probably beat ISU at home and the loss against K-State could have also went their way. Outgained the Wildcats 342 to 289 with 20 first downs to 12. 

I just think this TCU team is so much better than their record and should be close to a TD favorite than a field goal. Give me the Horned Frogs -2.5! 

50* INDIANA/RUTGERS NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Indiana -11) 

I will gladly lay less than two touchdowns with Indiana against the Scarlet Knights. I think a lot of people are going to look at this and be tempted to take Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights did just win 38-27 as a double-digit dog at Michigan State last week. They also see this is a big letdown spot for the Hoosiers. 

I see it the opposite. I think this is the ultimate sell high on Rutgers off a win against a Michigan State program that is in a full on rebuilding mode and just might be the worst team in the conference. 

I also think because Rutgers just won, that actually makes Indiana less likely to overlook them. Keep in mind this is an Indiana team that believes they can shock the world and win the Big Ten this year. I'm not saying they are right, but they know if they want to be that team, they got to beat bad teams like Rutgers. 

Because it had been so long for Rutgers just winning a game in Big Ten play, I think people ignore the numbers. The Scarlet Knights only had 276 total yards against a Spartans defense that only had 3 starters back. They were outgained by almost 100 yards and benefited a ton from 7 Michigan State turnovers. 

I know the boxscore wasn't great for Indiana in their win over Penn State, but I still think that's a really really good Nittany Lions team. The fact that they didn't put up big numbers and were able to win, speaks to the potential of this team. 

I know Rutgers is improved, but so is Indiana and the Hoosiers beat the Scarlet Knights 35-0 last year with a 557 to 75 edge in total yards. Give me Indiana -11! 

40* KANSAS ST/W VIRGINIA NCAAF NO-BRAINER (W Virginia -2.5) 

This is one of those plays you just play no matter what. Any time you have a ranked team getting points against an unranked opponent, you play the unranked team. I'll do just that with the Mountaineers at home against No. 16 Kansas State. 

I played against West Virginia last week at Texas Tech, as I didn't feel they should be laying points on the road against a pretty equal opponent. We cashed a winner with the Red Raiders, but it just as easily could have gone the other way. WV ended up outgaining Texas Tech 438 to 348. Even though they lost, I came away impressed with the Mountaineers. 

West Virginia has really been strong defensively and I think they can make things really difficult here on a pretty limited K-State offense that is down their starting QB in Skylar Thompson. True freshman Will Howard has decent numbers, but half his attempts came against an awful Kansas defense last week. They were pretty lucky to beat TCU with Howard and no way they pull off that upset in Norman without Thompson. Give me West Virginia -2.5! 

50* HAWAII/WYOMING MWC *PLAY OF THE MONTH* (Wyoming +2) 

I love the value here with Wyoming as a home dog against Hawaii on Friday. I believe Hawaii is overvalued coming off a 34-19 upset win over Fresno State. At the same time, I think the Cowboys are undervalued off a 34-37 OT loss at Nevada as a 2.5-point favorite. 

There's no shame losing at Nevada. That's one of the most improved teams in the MWC. Wolf Pack probably should have been favored in that one. What I like about Wyoming is they were outplayed and yet still made a game of it. 

This is a very well coached Cowboys team under Craig Bohl and are one of the most experienced teams not just in the conference, but the entire country. When this team is playing well, they are tough to beat at home. Last three times they have finished the season with a winning record they have gone 17-3 at home with a perfect 6-0 mark last year. 

As for Hawaii, I think they are a quality team, but I also feel like they beat up on a bad Fresno State team. Bulldogs also made it easy on them with 4 turnovers (Hawaii +3 turnover margin). Warriors haven't had a winning road record since 2010. I just don't see them pulling off back-to-back road wins. Give me the Cowboys +2! 

40* MINNESOTA/MARYLAND NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Minnesota -19.5) 

I went against Minnesota last week and won easy with Michigan -3, as the Wolverines laid it on the Gophers 49-24. A lot of people liked Minnesota to in that game. I believe seeing them lose like that will have some hesitant to lay this big number. Which is saying something given how bad Maryland looked last week in a 43-3 loss at Northwestern. 

My opinion really didn't change on Minnesota. They are good team with some decent talent, but they were not as good as their 11-3 record last year and it simply had them overvalued against a better team. 

I think the Gophers respond in a big way against the Terps. Minnesota destroyed Maryland 52-10 last year. I would be shocked if they didn't score 40+ in this one. Maryland's defense is clearly lacking talent in the front 7. They let Northwestern rush for 325 yards with 6 different players recording a rush of 10+ yards. 

Their offense wasn't any better. Tua's younger brother Taulia Tagovailoa went 14 of 25 for 94 yards with 0 TDs and 3 INTs. Maryland also rushed for a mere 64 yards on 21 attempts. This Minnesota defense isn't as good as Northwestern's stop unit, but it's still going to be able to get off the field. 

I just don't think it's asking a lot here for Minnesota to win by 20 or more points. Give me the Gophers -19.5! 

50* COLO ST/FRESNO ST NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Colorado St -1) 

I love the value here with Colorado State at basically a pick'em against Fresno State. While the Mountain West got started up last week, the Rams' game with New Mexico was canceled (had to do with New Mexico covid rate being too high). The Bulldogs were in action and were embarrassed 34-19 at home by Hawaii. Fresno State closed as a 2.5-point favorite in that game. 

The positive for the Bulldogs is they put up 409 yards. The negative was they had 4 turnovers, including 3 picks by new starting QB Jake Haener. Another big negative was the defense, which gave up 552 yards and 6.6 yards/play. Most notably allowing 323 rushing yards to the Rainbow Warriors. Not the debut Fresno fans were hoping for under new head coach Kalen Deboer. 

Colorado State also has a new coach, though it's a more formidable name in Steve Addazio, who spent the last 7 years at BC. I think the only reason this line isn't more, is because of the fact that the Rams only went 4-8 last year. 

They should be greatly improved and note that while they went just 3-5 in MWC play, they were +34 ypg in conference play (Fresno -85 ypg last year). Not only does Colorado State have 15 returning starters, but they have added in several transfers, including 3 offensive linemen from BC, who should all start. They also added Miami transfer Scott Patchan on defense, who should start. 

Former Nebraska signee Patrick O'Brien is back under center for Colorado State. Last year was his first with the team on the field and he started 9 games, completed 62% of his pasess for 2803 yards and 13 scores. Each of his top 5 targets from last year are back. 

I think there's a good chance this game gets ugly in a hurry. Give me Colorado State -1! 

50* FALCONS/PANTHERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Panthers -2.5) 

I'm not sure why Atlanta is getting so much love as a small road dog. How many times can you lose a game in the horrific fashion that they have before the fight is taken out of you. The most recent being Todd Gurley's decision to score a TD when falling down and running out the clock was 100% the play. 

There's been audio released from the huddle prior to Gurley's run and you can clearly hear Matt Ryan tell him to get the 1-yard for the first down and go down. Do not score. I know Gurley is one guy, but that's all it takes. One guy puts himself (he's trying to score a TD for his bonus) ahead of the team and others follow. 

Carolina just gets no love. Panthers already went into Atlanta and beat the Falcons 23-16. Nothing fluky about that game, as Carolina had a 437 to 373 edge in total yards. Teddy Bridgewater is quietly having another monster season and this Panthers defense is better than people realize. 

Also, Falcons offense has been bad more than they have been good here of late. In their last 4 games they have scored 16, 16, 40 and 22. The 40-point outburst was against an awful Vikings defense. Give me the Panthers -2.5! 

50* BEARS/RAMS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Rams -5) 

I'm laying it with the Rams at home against the Bears on Monday Night Football. The public is all over Chicago at this price, as they see a Bears team off back-to-back upset wins against the Bucs and Panthers, facing off against a Rams team that just lost as a favorite at San Francisco and is just 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games. Public dogs have a way of falling flat on their face, especially in prime time games. 

I get the Bears are a team built to win ugly with their defense and the offense is in better hands with Nick Foles under center. I just don't think this team is as good as their 5-1 record. Clearly the oddsmakers agree or this line would be much closer to LA -3. 

You definitely have to look at the Rams loss to the 49ers in a different way after what we saw on Sunday with San Fran going into New England and beating a desperate Pats team 33-6. The 49ers are playing out of their minds with the injuries they have been dealt. 

I just wonder if the Rams didn't give them their full attention in that game. Note that the 49ers came into that contest fresh off a 43-17 loss at home to the Dolphins. 

While it's struggled in spurts, I like what this Rams offense has been able to do. They are averaging 6.2 yards/play against teams that only allow 5.7 yards/play. Bears only average 5.0 yards/play vs teams allowing 5.7. Rams defense only giving up 5.2 yards/play, which is better than the 5.4 mark for Chicago. Give me the Rams -5! 

50* 49ERS/PATS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Patriots -2.5) 

I think this is an ideal spot to buy low on the Patriots off a shocking upset loss at home to the Broncos and a great to sell high on the 49ers after an upset win at home over the Rams on Sunday Night Football. The big thing you have to keep in mind with the loss to Denver is the Patriots really didn’t get to practice for that game because of Covid. New England is set to practice today and it will be just their 3rd full practice in the month of October.  

I think we are going to see a huge bounce back game for the Patriots on Sunday and a big reason for that is I’m just not buying into this 49ers team being as good as people think. No one was really giving San Fran a shot against the Rams, but I actually like the 49ers in that game. A big reason for that is I didn’t think LA was all that great.

The Rams were 4-1, but those 4 wins were against the 4 NFC East teams. They did lose by just 3 at Buffalo, but they also trailed 28-3 in the 2nd half of that game. I also thought it was concerning that the Rams only scored 20 points against that awful Cowboys defense in Week 1. They also had just 17 points and 240 yards against a bad Giants team.  

Outside if that win, the 49ers only other victories this season are against the Jets and Giants. They lost to a depleted Eagles team at home and two weeks ago were absolutely destroyed at home 43-17 by the Dolphins.  

When I gave out NE on the podcast back in Week 3 against the Raiders, I noted how Belichick was not going to let Las Vegas star tight end Darren Waller beat them. Coming into that game Waller had caught 18 passes for 150 yards. He was a complete non-factor, catching just 2 passes for 9 yards. They are going to do the exact same thing with 49ers tight end George Kittle in this one. 

I also think it’s worth noting that no one knows San Fran quarterback Jimmy G better than Belichick. He’s going to gear up his defense to not only stop Kittle, but also play to the weaknesses of Garoppolo. Give me the Patriots -2.5!  

50* BUCS/RAIDERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bucs -3) 

I loved Tampa Bay at -3 when this line opened. I just think this Bucs team is only getting better and last week's demolition of Rodgers and the Packers certainly suggest that. There's been some Covid issues for Oakland and the line is now -5 at most books. I still love the Bucs at that price. 

I think the Raiders are a fraud right now with a winning record of 3-2. Last time we saw this team in Week 5, they upset the Chiefs 40-32 in KC as a 10-point dog. The defense was torched once again and I just think the offense caught that Chiefs defense in the perfect spot. KC's D was due for a letdown after their early schedule. 

Say what you want about Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay offense, but this defense is the real deal. The talk after that game against Rodgers and the Packers was not about how good they were, but how they needed to prove it in their game this week against the Raiders.

I just think Tampa Bay is going to win here and win rather convincingly. Play the Bucs -3! 

40* BROWNS/BENGALS NFL SHARP STAKE (Browns -3) 

For me I think it’s pretty simple when it comes to handicapping this Cleveland team. All you have to do is ask yourself will they be able to run the football.  

It was 100% the reason I gave out the Steelers last week. I knew it was going to be tough sledding for Baker Mayfield and that offense against an elite Pittsburgh run D. Cleveland managed just 75 rushing yards in that game and only 7 points.  

I look for the ground game to get right back in the swing of things in this game. In their 4-game win streak prior to the loss to the Steelers, they averaged 201 rushing yards/game.  

The Bengals are currently 27th against the run, giving up 142.3 ypg.Not great, but it could be worse. They are T-31st in the league, giving up 5.1 yards/carry. Last week they held the Colts to just 59 yards, but Indy only ran it 15 times. Note that Colts starting RB Johnathan Taylor had 60 yards on 12 attempts, which is exactly 5 yards a pop.Big reason Indy didn’t run it more, is they were down 21-0 basically a quarter into the game.  

The other thing to note with that game against the Colts, is the fact that Cincinnati’s defense let Philip Rivers throw for 371 yards and 3 scores. Rivers hadn’t thrown for more than 245 yards in a game all season and really looked like he was holding that team back. I think that’s a very encouraging sign for Mayfield in this game. 

In that Week 2 meeting between these two teams, Cleveland had 215 rushing yards and Mayfield was 16 of 23 for 219 yards and 2 scores.  

On the other side of the ball, Burrow is going to have to be great just to keep this close, because they aren’t going to be able to run it. Cincinnati ranks in the bottom 10 in rushing and the Browns are 4th in the NFL, allowing just 94.0 ypg on the ground. I think Myles Garrett and that Cleveland defense will be able to pin their ears back and go after Burrow, who has already been sacked 24 times in 6 games.  

I just think the Bengals get a little too much love from people because of Burrow. He's really good, but this Cincinnati team is not, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Give me the Browns -3! 

40* MICHIGAN/MINNESOTA NCAAF STEAMROLLER (Michigan -3) 

I just feel the price here is too good to pass up with Michigan laying just 3-points on the road. It feels like this is the least hyped the Wolverines have been going into a season in the Harbaugh era. It's a little surprising, as it finally appears like they have found an elite QB to guide their offense after getting lackluster play at the position the last 5 years. 

All I hear is praise around Joe Milton and if what is being said holds true, Michigan could be a team to look out for in 2020. I know they lost some guys at wide receiver, but more times than not a good QB will make receivers look good and there's definitely talent at the position. It should also open up more running lanes. 

The other big thing for me, is I think Minnesota comes in way overvalued after finishing 11-2 last year. That was so much more about how easy the schedule was for the Gophers than them being elite. We saw that in their regular season finale, as they lost 38-17 at home to Wisconsin with a trip to the Big Ten title game on the line. 

Last year Minnesota's strength of schedule ranked around 60, while Michigan had one of the 10 toughest schedules in the country. Give me the Wolverines -3! 

50* W VIRGINIA/TEXAS TECH *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Texas Tech +3.5) 

The fact that this line is close to a pick'em says a lot, as the Red Raiders come in at 1-3, while the Mountaineers are sitting at 3-1. The thing with West Virginia and their 3-1 start is they had a cupcake game to open the season against EKU. Their other two wins are at home against Baylor and Kansas, who look like the two worst teams in the Big 12. 

The only decent team they faced was Oklahoma State and they lost by 14. Note that's a Cowboys team that while undefeated has not looked very good and was without starting quarterback Spencer Sanders. 

Texas Tech's first 3 conference games were at home against Texas (should have won,but lost in OT) and then on the road against K-State and Iowa State. This is going to be the best offense West Virginia has seen by a landslide, especially in terms of quarterback play. I really think the wrong team is favored in this one. Give me Texas Tech +3.5! 

40* BOSTON COLLEGE/GA TECH NCAAF ATS MASSACRE (Boston College -4)

I'll lay the short number here with the Eagles at home against the Yellow Jackets. Both of these teams are coming off a lopsided loss last week. Georgia Tech was obliterated at home by Clemson 73-7, while BC lost 40-14 at Virginia Tech. 

Thing is the Yellow Jackets 66-point loss was every bit as bad as it looked, and really could have been a lot worse. Clemson had 52-points at the half of that game and outgained Ga Tech by 567 yards. 

BC on the other hand was simply done in by turnovers, as they were -5 in that department against the Hokies. Eagles were only outgained 461 to 435 and had 24 first downs to Va Techs 23. Jurkovec is arguably the best QB in the country that not everyone knows about. He threw for 345 yards and 2 scores last week and ranks 5th in the country in passing in 2020 with 1,526 yards. 

Georgia Tech has faced two QBs ahead of Jurkovec in UCF's Gabriel and Clemson's Lawrence. Both times they gave up over 400 passing yards. I just don't think a turnover prone Yellow Jackets offense will be able to keep pace in this one. Give me Boston College -4! 

40* BAYLOR/TEXAS NCAAF ATS SLAUGHTER (Texas -8.5) 

I think this is the perfect time to buy low on Texas. The Longhorns come into this game off back-to-back heartbreaking losses. First it was a 31-33 defeat at TCU, where Texas had 1st and Goal with 2.5 mins to play and proceeded to fumble to all but end the game. In their next game they fell 45-53 in 4 OT against rival Oklahoma.  

The Longhorns have went from being ranked inside the Top 10 to not even ranked at all.  It’s like everyone has forgot about this team. Even the betting public wants nothing to do with them, as close to 70% of the early action has been on Baylor. Some of that has to do with the line, but the books aren’t stupid. I believe they set a big number here knowing the Bears are going to have a hard time keeping this close.  

I just don’t know what the public sees in this Baylor team. The Bears have only played two games because of covid. They opened with a 47-14 win over Kansas and then lost in 2OT 21-27 at West Virginia.  

Their 47-14 blowout win over the Jayhawks looks a lot like what others are doing against Kansas, but that was a misleading score. Baylor had 2 kickoff return TDs, a safety and scored a garbage TD up 40-14 in the final 5 minutes of the 4th quarter.  What really stands out to me is they only outgained Kansas 352 to 328. In the Jayhawks two other conference games, they were outgained 593 to 193 by Oklahoma State and 544 to 157 by West Virginia.  

Also, they were lucky to get to OT in their loss to the Mountaineers. They trailed 14-7 with 1:51 to play in the 4th quarter. At that time they only had 172 yards of total offense. Baylor caught a big break in that late scoring drive to force OT. Baylor would have had 4th and 10, but an unnecessary roughness penalty gave them a 1st down.

I just don’t think the Bears are going to be able to keep pace offensively in this one. Texas is going to score. Longhorns are averaging 49.5 ppg and 495 ypg. Note that’s come against opponents that are only giving up on average 30.4 ppg and 384 ypg. Give me Texas -8.5.  

40* IOWA/PURDUE NCAAF DOMINATION (Iowa -3) 

I like the price here with the Hawkeyes as a slim 3-point road favorite against Purdue. The Boilermakers will be without head coach Jeff Brohm because of Covid and I just think that's a big hurdle for them to overcome against an Iowa team that I think is flying a bit under the radar in 2020. 

The big question mark with Iowa is they go from a 3-year starter to an unknown at quarterback. Thing is, Iowa has what looks to be one of the better o-lines in the Big Ten and have great talent back at the skill positions. They are also rock solid on defense under Ferentz. Hawkeyes haven't allowed more than 20.4 ppg in each of the last 5 years. 

The other big thing here is the lack of fans. Only family members are being allowed to attend Big Ten games. I think it has the road teams showing some value, as this would be a much different handicap if it was going to be sold out Ross-Ade Stadium. Iowa is the better team on both sides. Give me the Hawkeyes -3! 

50* HOUSTON/NAVY NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Houston -14) 

I absolutely love Houston as a mere 14-point favorite against Navy. I think we are getting a great price on the Cougars after last week's 26-43 loss at home to BYU. The end result was not great, but they did lead No. 14 BYU 26-14 late in the 3rd quarter. That's a really good Cougars team that has a future NFL QB in Zach Wilson running their offense. 

I just think the talent gap between Houston and Navy is substantial and I would argue the Cougars are one of the better teams not ranked in the Top 25 right now. 

Navy has gone 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4, but could easily be 0-5 both SU and ATS. They beat Tulane 27-24 as a 5.5-point dog despite trailing 24-0 at the half. They squeaked out a 31-29 win over Temple as a 3.5-poing dog and defeated ECU 27-23 as a 3-point favorite. This team has also lost 55-3 to BYU (which I think is a great indicator for Houston) and 40-7 to Air Force. 

Key here is Houston has the guys up front to stop this Navy rushing attack in its tracks and should be able to score at will offensively, as the Midshipmen are giving up a ridiculous 274 yards/game and 6.1 yards/carry vs the run this year. Navy also can't play from behind, so the margin should only grow as this one goes on. Give me the Cougars -14! 

40* GA SOUTHERN/C CAROLINA NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Coastal Carolina -6) 

I'll take my chances here with the Chanticleers laying less than a touchdown at home against Georgia Southern. I've really been impressed with what I've seen out of this Coastal Carolina team in their last two games, which saw them knock off two of the top teams in the Sun Belt in Arkansas State and Louisiana. 

The Chanticleers are absolutely dominating the time of possession and should be able to do just that against the Eagles. Don't be fooled by Georgia Southern's defense coming in only giving up 19.0 ppg, as their opponents so far on average are only scoring 15.5 ppg. 

A lot of people want to point to how they almost won on the road against Louisiana, but I'm not as sold on the Ragin' Cajuns as others. The game I focus more on is the Eagles mere 27-26 win at home over Campbell. Note that Ga Southern trailed 20-6 in the 2nd half of that game. 

That's a Campbell team that Coastal dominated from the start and has since lost by 31 to App State (21-52) and 52 at Wake Forest (14-66). 

While traction is starting to grow on the Chanticleers, I still think there's value with this team right now. Give me Coastal Carolina -6! 

40* NC STATE/N CAROLINA NCAAF NO-BRAINER (N Carolina -14.5) 

I think the line here really says it all. You don't normally see a Top 25 matchup with a team laying more than two touchdowns, especially when both teams are ranked outside of the Top 10. More times than not, the big favorite not only covers, but wins going away. That's exactly what I expect to happen in this one. 

North Carolina is going to come out with a chip on their shoulder after last week's upset loss to FSU. Give credit to the Seminoles for getting that win, but the Tar Heels definitely shot themselves in the foot a number of times in that game. They nearly rallied from a 31-7 halftime deficit, as they lost 28-31. They outgained FSU 558 to 432. 

NC State is coming off a bit of a fluke win and cover over Duke, but the even bigger story is the injury suffered to starting quarterback Devin Leary. He had really been carrying this offense. Pretty big dropoff from him to backup Bailey Hockman and that's a problem because NC State must have success throwing to have any shot of keeping this close. 

That's because UNC is going to score at will against this NC State defense. While they haven't been terrible defensively in their last 3 games, those were against some sub-par offenses in Pitt, Virginia and Duke. In their first two games they gave up 42 to Wake Forest and 45 to Va Tech. I see the Tar Heels hitting 40+ in this one. Give me UNC -14.5! 

50* AUBURN/OLE MISS NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ole Miss +3.5) 

I love the value here with the Rebels catching more than a field goal at home against Auburn. I don't know why this Tigers team gets so much love, but to me they just aren't that great of a team. They had their hands full with Kentucky in their opener at home, were dominated at Georgia, should have lost at home to Arkansas and lost on the road at South Carolina. 

While Ole Miss is 1-3, two of their losses are two Alabama and Florida. They had a heartbreaking 1-point loss at Kentucky and last week lost 21-33 at Arkansas. The loss to the Razorbacks doesn't look great, but it was to be expected coming off that emotional loss to the Crimson Tide. Definitely didn't help matters that they turned it over 7 times. 

I look for Lane Kiffin's offense to get back on track in this one. Auburn has only forced 1 turnover in their last 3 games combined and are far from a juggernaut on the defensive side. Also, as bad as Ole Miss' defense is, I think they can get some stops against Bo Nix and that Tigers offense. Give me the Rebels +3.5! 

40* ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Illinois +19.5)

I think this is too good a price to pass up with Illinois. It's taken a minute, but Lovie Smith has the Fighting Illini trending in the right direction. While they lost to Cal in their bowl game to finish up with a losing record at 6-7, that was the first time since 2014 that they got to a bowl. Their 4 conference wins were their most since they won 4 back in 2010. 

One of those wins was a 24-23 upset over #6 Wisconsin as a massive 30-point underdog. With 14 starters back, including 9 on offense, this should be the best team to date in what will be the 5th year under Smith. 

I also think there's going to be some value with road teams in the Big Ten, as family members are the only fans that are being allowed in the stadiums. Home field is huge in the Big Ten and I got lot more confidence in Illinois keeping this close in a non-hostile environment. 

There's also a lot of hype with Wisconsin centered around red-shirt freshman quarterback Graham Mertz. Kid definitely has potential, but the Badgers offense is built for the run game. How much better can you really expect him to do than last year's starter Jack Coan, who completed 70% of his attempts with a 18-5 TD-INT ratio. Replacing the production of Jonathan Taylor won't be easy. Give me the Fighting Illini +19.5! 

50* TULSA/S FLORIDA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Tulsa -9.5)

This line has move up to Tulsa -10 at a lot of spots and I could see this thing continuing to climb as we get closer to this game. I think we are getting big time value with the Golden Hurricane laying single digits. 

Tulsa had their big game against No. 8 ranked Cincinnati postponed because of positive Covid tests for the Bearcats. Having nearly won at Oklahoma State and upsetting UCF on the road, there's no question they were excited for that game against a Top 10 team. I look for them to take out their frustration against USF. 

I played against the Bulls last week and lost. I laid double-digits with Temple and they ended up winning by just 2. The Owls did everything in their power to make that a game. USF had 31 points late in the 3rd quarter and only one scoring drive of more than 50 yards. 

This USF offense is not that good. They were shutout at Notre Dame and scored just 7 at Cincinnati. They also managed just 24 against ECU at home, who they lost to by 20. I think they are going to have a miserable time scoring against this Tulsa defense. Give me Tulsa -9.5! 

50* GIANTS/EAGLES NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Eagles -4.5) 

I know the Eagles are going to be a very public play, but I just can't find a legit reason to take the Giants in this matchup. I know the numbers aren't great for Carson Wentz, who has a 8-9 TD-INT ratio, but a lot of that is he's being forced to put this team on his back with all the injuries they have had on the offensive side of the ball. 

Losing RB Miles Sanders and TE Zach Ertz doesn't look good, but they are getting back WR DeSean Jackson and LT Lane Johnson. I actually think the injuries to Sanders and Ertz have created some value. 

More than anything this about who they are playing. The Giants defense is not great. 

Last week against a Washington team that ranked 30th in OFF DVOA and by some metrics were the worst passing offense in the NFL, they let Kyle Allen complete 31 of 42 attempts for 280 yards and 2 scores. That was with next to nothing from the running game (86 yards on 24 attempts). To me the "Football Team" is a poor man's version of this current Eagles offense. 

Somehow the Giants won that game, despite getting outgained by almost 100 yards (337 to 240). 

On the flip side of things, I question how this Daniel Jones led Giants offense will be able to move the ball. The fact that Jones is New York's leading rusher on the season with 204 yards says all you need to know about their offensive line. 

The Eagles still have one of the better defensive lines in the game, they are 4th in the NFL with 21 sacks and also 4th in adjusted sack rate, which factors in the number of sacks based on how often the QB drops back to pass. 

You also have to like the fact that the Eagles have played 5 times on TNF since Doug Pederson took over as head coach. Not only have they won all 5, but they are 5-0 ATS with an average margin of victory of 9.3 points/game. Give me Philadelphia -4.5! 

40* ARK ST/APP ST NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Arkansas St +14.5) 

Now that this line has creeped up over two touchdowns, I got no choice here but to take a shot with Arkansas State. I think this Red Wolves team is way undervalued because they use a two quarterback system. If you combine the stats of their two guys, people would be calling their signal caller a Heisman candidate. I know the defense hasn't looked great, but we have seen this team compete against some really good teams. They only lost by 7 at Memphis and won outright 35-31 at Kansas State. 

As for Appalachian State, this has been the best program in the Sun Belt for a while now, but as is the case with a lot of small schools, it can be hard to sustain that level of success. Scott Satterfield really built up this program, but he's now two years removed and last year's head coach Eli Drinkwitz left after one season. They are now on their 3rd head coach in 3 years. 

They beat Charlotte by 15 in their opener, but were only up 1 going into the 4th quarter. They lost ugly at Marshall, scoring just 7 points. That game against the Thundering Herd was on 9/19. They had a week off before playing Campbell, which is like having a bye. They haven't played since. It's been more than a month since this team has been tested on the field. If they aren't sharp, they could easily lose this game outright. Give me Arkansas State +14.5! 

50* CHIEFS/BILLS MNF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Chiefs -5) 

I really like the Chiefs in this spot. Last week's loss to the Raiders didn't surprise me. That just felt like a game to me that KC was going to struggle to get up for. Chiefs had just played two massive games against the Ravens and Patriots, which they felt like they had to have to get the No. 1 seed. Getting that No. 1 seed is huge, as that's the only team that gets a bye in the playoffs now. 

I expect to see the Chiefs 100% locked in here against Buffalo, who is another one of those teams that are a contender for that No. 1 seed. I think we see that same team that owned the Ravens on MNF a couple weeks back. 

I'm confident Mahomes and the Chiefs offense is going to move the ball against this Bills defense. Buffalo has really struggled on that side.As for KC's defense, I think they are going to bounce back in a big way here. This is a defense that got better and better as last year went on and prior to giving up 40 to the Raiders they had held their first 4 opponents to 20 or less. Josh Allen is the kind of QB they typically play well. Give me the Chiefs -5! 

40* BROWNS/STEELERS NFL SHARP STAKE (Steelers -3.5) 

I’m going to take the Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 at home against the Cleveland Browns. I said this last week when I took the Colts as a road favorite over the Browns, I’m not a believer in this team. I just don’t think Baker Mayfield is as good as people think. He had two second half interceptions against Indy with Cleveland leading by two scores.  

Now he’s going to have to be the focal point of the offense in this one, as the Steelers feature one of the league’s best run defenses. Pittsburgh is No. 2 in the NFL, giving up just 64.0 yards/game and 3.3 yards/carry. I just don’t see the Browns offense being able to score enough to give them any shot at covering this small number.  

This is also not just another game for the Steelers. As much as they will downplay it, there’s no doubt they are going to come in with a different mindset for this one, as it’s the first time they will face Cleveland with Myles Garrett since he swung a helmet at Mason Rudolph that led to him being suspended for most of last year. 

Another big factor here is the Steelers dominance of the Browns on their home field. Pittsburgh has won 16 straight at home over Cleveland with the last loss coming in 2003, which is one year before the Steelers drafted Ben Roethlisberger. Adding to this, Steelers are 23-2 against the Browns with Roethlisberger as their QB home or away. Give me the Steelers -3.5.  

40* TEXANS/TITANS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Texans +3.5)

Last week we won easily with Houston -6 vs Jacksonville, as the Texans cruised to a 30-14 win. That was a big play on spot for Houston in that first game after firing head coach Bill O'Brien. What I loved is there was a clear breaking point between the players. I believe it has the Texans players out to prove that O'Brien is in fact what was holding them back. 

Not only is Houston playing with a bit of a chip on their shoulder, but this might be the most talented 1-4 team in recent years. The Texans were simply dealt as brutal a schedule as you could get to start the year. Their first 3 games were @ KC, home vs Ravens and @ Steelers. They did lose to a bad Vikings team to fall to 0-4, but I think some of that was the team no longer wanting to play for O'Brien. 

The Titans are a good team. However, I think it might be time to sell high. Tennessee was in the AFC title game last year, are sitting 4-0 and off a convincing 42-16 win over an undefeated Bills team that everyone was in love with. 

Thing is they could be sitting here at 1-3, as their first 3 wins were all by 3 or fewer against the Broncos, Jags and Vikings (all 3 of those teams enter Week 6 with 1 win).

Another huge factor here is rest. Tennessee is going to be playing on just 4 days of rest. That's tough in normal circumstances. I think it's going to be even harder on a team that is short-handed because of all the guys dealing with Covid. Give me the Texans +3.5! 

40* FALCONS/VIKINGS NFL ATS STEAMROLLER (Falcons +4) 

Last week we played on the Texans in their first game after they fired head coach Bill O'Brien and Houston delivered in a big way with a 30-14 win, easily covering as a -6 point favorite. This is a situational spot I've had a lot of success playing over the years. I just can't help myself here with Atlanta +4 at Minnesota in their first game after firing Dan Quinn. 

One of the reasons I believe this spot is profitable is whenever a bad team fires a coach it's like whatever happened before is tossed out the window and it's like starting a season all over. You can bank on that team playing their hearts out. 

I like a hungry Falcons team here. Atlanta is better than 0-5. They blew two massive leads against the Cowboys and Bears. There other 3 losses are against two SB contenders in the Seahawks and Packers and a very underrated Panthers team. 

As for the Vikings, they have looked a little bit better of late, but I'm still not sold on this team. They won't have Dalvin Cook this week and I still think that defense is a major liability. 

The other big thing here is I think this is a tough spot for Minnesota. The Vikings avoid going 0-4 with that big win over the Texans and looked like they were going to make it 2 straight with a big upset of Seattle. Mike Zimmer decides to go for it on 4th and 1 leading by 5, instead of kicking the field goal to go up 8. Seahawks make the stop and Russell Wilson goes 94 yards, converting twice on 4th down to win the game 27-26. Give me the Falcons +4! 

40* GEORGIA/ALABAMA NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Georgia +4.5) 

I'm going to take the points to be safe, but I really like the Bulldogs to finally get that elusive win over Alabama that they have been so close to getting since Kirby Smart took over (both games they were up big and couldn't hold on). 

The big headline coming in is that Alabama won't have Nick Saban on the field, as he can't be with the team after testing positive for Covid 19. I know the line has dropped a couple points after the news came out, but I think this is a massive blow to the Crimson Tide's chances in this game. 

You also have to look at the line and think about how much people love to bet Alabama. Thing is, when the books make them a favorite of less than a touchdown, things typically don't go well for the Crimson Tide backs. Since 2017 Alabama has been a favorite of less than -7 on 6 ocasssions. They are just 2-4 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in those games. 

People are going to want to give the edge offensively to Alabama, but it's closer than you think. While Georgia is only scoring 36.0 ppg they have done so against teams that have allowed on average just 25.8 ppg (+10.2). Alabama is scoring 51.0 ppg but it's come against teams that on average allow 41.2 (+9.8). 

On the defensive side of the ball, Georgia has looked great and Alabama has looked a bit suspect. Bulldogs allowing just 12.3 ppg vs teams averaging 23.4 ppg (+11.1). Crimson Tide are allowing 30.3 vs teams averaging 31.4 (+1.1). 

We are going to find out just how good Mac Jones is as he finally faces a legit defense and one that is considered to have one of the best secondaries in the country. Give me the Bulldogs +4.5!  

40* TEXAS A&M/MISS STATE NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (Miss State +7)

 After that big upset of LSU in their season opener, where the Bulldogs put up 44 points and over 600 yards of total offense, they have laid back-to-back eggs. First it was that ugly loss at home to Arkansas and last week they were rolled 24-2 at Kentucky. 

Turnovers have really plagued the Bulldogs. They had 4 turnovers against the Razorbacks and 6 last week against the Wildcats. They are now -9 in the turnover department thru 3 games. That’s about as bad as you can do with turnovers in 3 games. There should be some positive regression going forward.  

Note that if not for those turnovers Mississippi State might be 3-0. They outgained Arkansas 400 to 275 and Kentucky 295 to 157. In 3 SEC games they are averaging 443 yards/game and giving up 286 ypg.  

The big reason that I like them against Texas A&M, is we should see the Bulldogs air attack put up some big numbers against a suspect Aggies secondary. Opposing QBs are completing 71.6% of their attempts against this Texas A&M defense. Alabama had 435 passing yards on them and Florida put up 312. It’s also worth noting the Aggies defense has only forced 4 turnovers in 3 games.

I also give the motivation edge to the Bulldogs. This is a prime letdown spot for Texas A&M coming off two massive games against Alabama and Florida, both of which were ranked in the Top 5 when they faced them.

As for Mississippi State this is put up or shut up time, especially after getting called out by their new head coach Mike Leach. He basically came out and said that there’s going to be some changes. Guys who aren’t playing with the right attitude and effort aren’t going to see the field and might be kicked off the team. Give me the Bulldogs +7.  

50* OLE MISS/ARKANSAS NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Arkansas St +2.5) 

I absolutely love this spot with the Razorbacks as a small home dog against Ole Miss. Even though the Rebels come into this game off a loss, the hype around this team is sky-high after what they were able to do against Alabama. The Rebels went score-for-score with the Crimson Tide before eventually falling short 63-48. 

When you put up nearly 50 points and rack up 647 yards against Alabama, people take notice. I just think it has Ole Miss getting way too much respect on the road against a pissed off Arkansas team that has to feel a bit cheated with how things ended in last week's 28-30 loss at Auburn. 

Auburn QB Bo Nix fumbled the snap and then tried to spike it. You can't spike after a fumble and thus it was a backward pass. The ball was live and Arkansas recovered, however the refs ruled that because some players stopped pursuing the ball they couldn't award them the recovery. Tigers go down and kick the game-winning field goal with 7 seconds left. 

What people are going to overlook with Ole Miss and their great showing vs Alabama, is just how hard it's going to be for them to bounce back from that game. That is one Lane Kiffin and the Rebels had circled, as he use to be Saban's OC and there was all kind of talks about how Saban owns his former assistants. 

The other big thing is defense. Ole Miss doesn't play it. In their 3 games so far they have allowed 51 points to Florida, 41 to Kentucky and 63 to Alabama. They are giving up an average of 641 yards/game and 8.8 yards/play. Simply put, Arkansas is going to score and score a lot. 

The key here is the Razorbacks defense, which has flashed early under new DC Barry Odom. I think Arkansas will find a way to make enough stops against what I expect to be a sloppy and unmotivated Ole Miss team. Give me the Razorbacks +2.5! 

40* AUBURN/S CAROLINA NCAAF SHARP STAKE (S Carolina +3.5) 

I like the value here with the Gamecocks catching 3.5 at home against No. 15 Auburn.  I just don't feel that Auburn is as good as their ranking might lead people to believe.

They beat Kentucky 29-13 in their opener, but that was more evenly matched than the final score would indicate. UK had 1st and Goal from the 1 and didn't score before half (were trailing 8-7 at that time). Wildcats outgained the Tigers 384 to 324. 

Next time out they were absolutely no match for Georgia, losing 27-6 and getting outgained 442 to 216. They then were very fortunate to escape with a 30-28 win at home against Arkansas, as they were the benefit of a controversial call that had it gone the other way have ended the game with Arkansas winning 28-27. Instead they keep it and kick a FG to win it. Note Auburn only outgained the Razorbacks 446 to 437. 

South Carolina is just 1-2, but their two losses were a heartbreaker to Tennessee 31-27 and a 14-point loss to a very good Florida team. They got their first win last week in a 41-7 blowout win over Vandy. 

One of the big reasons I think Auburn is overvalued is Bo Nix has not made that big sophomore season jump that many were expecting. He's only completing 56.8% of his attempts. Last two games the Tigers have failed to reach 200 yards passing. They are going to have pto play right into the strength of South Carolina, which is much better vs the run than they are the pass. 

On the flip side of this, I've been impressed with Gamecocks QB Collin Hill and he should be in for a big day against a struggling Auburn secondary. Opposing QBs have completed 66% of their attempts with an average of 266 yards/game and 8.3 yards/attempt. Give me South Carolina +3.5! 

40* KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE NCAAF ATS SLAUGHTER (Kentucky +6) 

I see a ton of value here with Kentucky catching almost a TD on the road against the Volunteers. Even though the Wildcats come in off a 24-2 blowout win over Mississippi State, it still feels like the market is low on this team. Kentucky is just 1-2 overall, as they lost their opener 29-13 at Auburn and then lost 41-42 at home to Ole Miss. 

The game against Auburn was much closer than the 16-point margin. Kentucky beat themselves more than anything in that game. They then blew a 14-point 2nd half lead vs Ole Miss and lost the game because the kicker missed a PAT in OT. 

Tennessee's season has gone the opposite. They won their first two games, winning 31-27 at South Carolina and 35-12 at home vs Mizzu. Everyone was eager to see what they could do against a power like Georgia last week. It didn't go well. Vols lost 44-21 and it wasn't that close. Tenn was gifted 14-points off turnovers. They only finished the game with 214 total yards. 

Not only does that game show the Vols have a ways to go, but it's also a tough game for them to bounce back from. On top of the possibility of them hanging their heads from that loss, they also have a huge lookahead matchup with a home game against Alabama next Saturday. Give me Kentucky +6! 

50* BYU/HOUSTON NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Houston +5) 

I love the value here with the Cougars as a home dog against BYU. I not only think Houston will cover the number, but I like them to win this game outright. 

The Cougars come in ranked No. 14 in the country after their 4-0 start. While BYU does have a bunch of blowout wins on their resume, the schedule hasn't been all that tough with their 4 games against Navy, Troy, La Tech and UTSA. A far cry from what they were suppose to start the 2020 season with before covid hit (@ Utah, Mich St, @ Arizona St, @Minnesota. I like the talent on this BYU team, but this is not one of the 15 best teams in the country.

Houston had 5 different games postponed before finally getting to play their first game last week against Tulane. The Cougars showed some sloppiness early in that game, but ended up winning 49-31. A really remarkable win given they were -5 in the turnover department. 

When you see a score like 49-31, you instantly think their was no defense played. That wasn't the case. Houston's defense limited Tulane to just 211 total yards. Second year head coach Dana Holgorsen said last year he had the best defensive scout team in the history of college football. They definitely looked improved. 

That makes this a scary team with the talent they have on the offensive side of the ball. Give me the Cougars +5! 

50* GA STATE/ARKANSAS ST NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Arkansas State -3) 

*Analysis Coming* 

50* C CAROLINA/LAFAYETTE NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Coastal Carolina +7.5) 

This is an easy play on Coastal Carolina catching +7.5. The Chanticleers have been one of the big surprises early on in the Sun Belt. Coastal Carolina improved to 3-0 with a 52-23 win against Arkansas State. Note that's a Red Wolves team that was considered a contender in this conference. It's also an Ark Sate team that had just had just won at Kansas State and only lost by 7 at Memphis. 

Coastal Carolina is now in year 3 under head coach Jamey Chadwell. This was his best team coming into a year he's had and the Chanticleers got in all 15 spring practices. This team really believes they can make some noise in the SBC. No question they are going to be up for this one. 

Not to take anything away from the Ragin' Cajuns, who are now ranked No. 25 in the country. I just don't this is a Top 25 team. Sure they had a big upset win over ISU (31-14), but keep in mind they had two return TDs. They have since squeaked out a 34-31 win against Georgia State and 20-18 win over Georgia Southern. 

One big positive on the field that I see for the Chanticleers is they should be able to play to their strength offensively in the run game. CC comes in averaging 199 ypg and 4.6 yards/carry. Arkansas State's defense is giving up 191 ypg and 4.2 yards/carry. Give me the Chanticleers +7.5! 

50* BILLS/TITANS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bills -3.5) 

Even though I'm confident the Bills will cover, I would strongly recommend buying this down to Buffalo -3 (not an option when submitting picks). There's just too many factors in favor of Buffalo to not play them at this price. 

The Titans come into this game 3-0, but I've not been that impressed with this team. They could just as easily be 0-3. All 3 wins have come by 3-points or less. 

Tennessee has had little to no practice time for this game, as their facility has been shutdown. They also got several key guys out because of Covid. They are extremely thin at WR and while A.J. Brown is expected back from injury, he might not be 100%. 

The biggest thing for me is I don't see the Titans defense being able to contain Josh Allen and this Bills offense. Tennessee ranks 23rd against the pass (256.3 ypg) and 31st against the run (166.0 ypg). 

Titans do have two really good edge rushers in Clowney and Landry III, but they figure to be negated in this one, as Buffalo has two quality tackles in Dawkins and Williams. Give me the Bills -3.5!  

50* CHARGERS/SAINTS *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Chargers +7.5) 

I love the Chargers at this price. I don't think it's out of the question that they leave New Orleans with a win. This Saints team has not looked anything like the Super Bowl contender everyone was claiming before the season started. 

I just think a lot of people are holding on to what Brees and this team has done in the past on MNF. I could maybe see it if Michael Thomas was playing, but he's not and shockingly it's not because he's still injured. Thomas got in a fight with a teammate during a weekend practice and is being suspended by the team. 

Chargers run a similar defense to the Falcons, which has given the Saints offense trouble. We have seen this defense disrupt things for Patrick Mahomes and had Brady in the Bucs down big early. I could definitely see them making life tough on this dink and dunk offense that NO runs.

All of this and I haven't mentioned the talented rookie QB the Chargers have in Herbert. I really think LA struck gold with this kid. Anthony Lynn is now the only thing holding this team back. I think Herbert will have success in this game. New Orleans is giving up 30.8 ppg. Give me the Chargers +7.5! 

40* COLTS/BROWNS NFL *SHARP STAKE* on Colts -2.5

I really like the value here with Indianapolis at -1.5 on the road against the Browns. This feels like the perfect spot to fade Cleveland. Chances are the Browns cost a lot of you some money last week, as just about every square was on the Cowboys -3 at home.  

Not only did the Browns cover, they destroyed Dallas 49-38 in a game that wasn’t anywhere close to what the final score would indicate. That’s now 3 straight wins and back-to-back covers for Cleveland.  

Keep in mind this is a team a lot of people were on coming into the year, so this success is going to draw a lot of public money back on this team, especially as a home dog. As of right now, close to 60% of the tickets on this game are on the Browns.  

I could be dead wrong, but I don’t Cleveland is a serious contender. I see them as a very mediocre 8-8 type of team. They have simply taken advantage of a soft schedule, as their two other wins were at home against a couple of rebuilding teams in the Bengals and Redskins. I know every one thinks Dallas is this great team, but that defense the Cowboys are sending out on the field is one of the worst units I have ever seen.  

You also have to look at how the Browns are generating their offense. Baker Mayfield is in every other commercial right now and gets a lot of the attention, but he’s far from the reason this team is 3-1. In fact, Cleveland is 30th out of 32 teams in passing at 182.5 ypg. It’s been the Browns ability to run the ball, as they lead the league with an average of 204.5 ypg.  

Moving the chains on the ground against this Colts defense is going to a much more difficult task than some of the teams they have racked up big yards against the last few weeks. Indianapolis has the No. 4 ranked run defense, giving up just 77.0 yards/game. Not only that, Cleveland will be playing without leading rusher Nick Chubb. I get they got a good back up Kareem Hunt, but the loss of Chub is a big deal. Part of the reason both those guys have been so good is they are fresh the entire game with how they split reps.  

Without that running game picking up big yards on 1st and 2nd down, we are going to see Mayfield forced to make a lot more big plays on 3rd and long. Oh and in case you wondering, the Colts are No. 1 in the league vs the pass, giving up just 159.3 ypg.  I know Philip Rivers has really started to look old for the first time in his career, but this Cleveland defense is one he can exploit. Browns are 30th vs the pass giving up 310.5 ypg and are 27th in scoring, allowing 31.5 ppg.  

I really give the edge here to the Colts on both sides of the ball and that makes them an easy play with a spread that’s basically a pick’em. Give me Indy -1.5! 

40* DOLPHINS/49ERS NFL ATS SLAUGHTER (Dolphins +8.5) 

One of my biggest plays in Week 4 was the Eagles +7.5 on SNF against the 49ers. While I knew there was a good chance Philadelphia was going to play inspired after their 0-2-1 start and it being a prime time game, it was more of a fade of San Francisco. 

I can’t think of a team that’s been ravaged by injuries as much as the 49ers have been on both sides of the football. It just feels to me that this team is getting way too much respect for what they did a season ago in making it all the way to the Super Bowl.  

You have to wonder if this team played any other two teams besides the Jets and Giants in Weeks 2 and 3 if they wouldn’t be 0-4 instead of 2-2. The two New York teams are so much worse than the rest of the league it’s hard to believe. Not to mention that loss to the Cardinals is looking worse and worse with how poorly Arizona has played against some other mediocre teams. The loss to the Eagles is equally concerning.  

There’s absolutely no reason this team should be laying more than a TD against any team not named the Jets or Giants. Miami isn’t just capable of covering, they could definitely win this game outright.  Give me the Dolphins +8.5!

40* JAGUARS/TEXANS NFL NO-BRAINER (Texans -6) 

A lot of people look at a team like Houston, who just fired their head coach, as a team that's in shambles. It's never good to be in a position that you need to make that kind of change, especially in Week 5. 

However, I've found a lot of success playing on teams in the first game after they fired their head coach. Now you can't just back this blindly. The Jets could fire Gase and I wouldn't even consider taking them in their next game. 

I think we are going to see the best game of the season out of this Houston team. The players clearly weren't a fan of O'Brien. Now they got to back it up. They are going to be so motivated to show that O'Brien is what was holding them back. 

What better team to get all that frustration out on than the Jaguars. The only reason the Jags are remotely competitive is they got a pretty decent QB in Minshew. The rest of the team is pretty trash if you ask me. All 4 teams they have faced have scored at least 28 points. 

While we haven't quite seen it so far this season, Watson and that Texans offense should be one of the better units in the league. Part of their struggles is their schedule. Not only have they faced 3 of the best teams, but 3 of the better defenses in the league in the Ravens, Chiefs and Steelers. Give me the Texans -6!

40* ALABAMA/OLE MISS NCAAF STEAMROLLER (Ole Miss +24) 

All we keep hearing about with this game is how Nick Saban and Alabama have dominated when the Crimson Tide are facing a team that is coached by one of Saban's former assistants. This time it's Lane Kiffin with Ole Miss. 

Now I'm not giving the Rebels much of a shot of winning this game, but with the way they can put up points, I really like them to keep this within the number. Note we did see Alabama asked to cover a similar big number on the road against Missouri in their opener. They won the game 38-19 but didn't cover as a 28.5-point favorite. 

Another thing to keep in mind is this is a bit of a letdown spot for Alabama off that big game last week against Texas A&M. 

More than anything, I love that Ole Miss has the ability to play from behind and cover with the back door if things get out of hand early. Rebels feature one of the nations top passing attacks early on and we have seen the Crimson Tide pull off the dogs in the 2nd half (what they did against Missouri). Give me the Rebels +24! 

40* TEMPLE/NAVY NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Temple -3) 

The Owls are an easy play if you ask me. Temple is simply being undervalued because they have yet to play. We saw this on Thursday with Houston. The Cougars won and covered as 6.5-point favorites in a 49-31 win over Tulane and did so despite a -5 turnover margin, which tells you just how lopsided that was. 

With Houston's cover, teams who are playing their first game of the season against an opponent that has already played at least one game are 17-4-1 ATS this season. 

The other big thing here is how bad Navy has been. Outside of a good 2nd half against Tulane, where they rallied from a 24-0 deficit to win 27-24, this team has not been competitive. They lost their opener 55-3 at home to BYU getting outgained by the Cougars 580 to 149. They also lost 40-7 to Air Force getting outgained by the Falcons 410 to 241. 

This is not your typical Navy team that is one of the best in the country at running the football. Midshipmen are only averaging 138 ypg and 3.2 yards/carry. With how bad their defense is, Navy has no shot of being competitive if they can't run the ball. Give me the Owls -3! 

40* TEXAS TECH/IOWA ST NCAAF ATS SLAUGHTER (Texas Tech +12.5) 

Much like I played against Mississippi State last week coming off their big win over LSU, I want to fade the Cyclones off their big win over Oklahoma.  

It also has a lot to do with the number and the ability this Texas Tech offense has to put up points. It’s one thing for Iowa State to win the game, it’s another for them to win so by 13 or more points. 

 I definitely think this Texas Tech offense will be able to move the ball with their passing attack. Last week Oklahoma redshirt freshman Spencer Rattler went 25 of 36 for 300 yards and 2 scores. The week before TCU had 399 passing yards and would have had more if star quarterback Max Duggan played the entire game. He only played the 2nd half and had 241 yards and 3 scores.  

Texas Tech is currently 8th in the country in passing at 342.7 ypg. Starting QB Alan Bowman is questionable after being forced out of last week’s game against Kansas State with an ankle injury. With or without him I’m not to worried. Backup Henry Colombi replaced Bowman and went 30 of 42 for 244 yards and 2 scores.  

It’s also worth nothing that Texas Tech was in a really tough spot last week against K-State. They were doomed for a letdown after blowing that 15-point lead in the final 3 minutes of an overtime loss to rival Texas. They should be much more focused and motivated in this one.  Give me the Red Raiders +12.5! 

50* DUKE/SYRACUSE ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH (Duke -2.5) 

I'm going to gladly lay the 2.5 points with the Blue Devils on the road against the Orange. I just think we are getting an exceptional price with Duke because they come into this game at 0-4. Thing is, best case this team was going to be 1-3 with their schedule, as they have had to play Notre Dame Virginia and Virginia Tech. 

As for Syracuse, I think we are seeing them overvalued off back-to-back covers. They first lost by just 11 as a 21.5-point dog at Pitt and then won outright 37-20 as a 7.5-point home dog to Georgia Tech. I just don't think this team is very good. They were outgained by Pitt 342 to 171 and by the Yellow Jackets 453 to 357. 

If not for the fact that Orange defense has created 10 turnovers (+6 turnover margin), this line would be a lot more. Duke also has a -7 turnover margin, so there's some positive regression coming for them. Even if the Blue Devils can keep it at -1 or even in the turnover departement, I think they win here by at least a touchdown. Give me Duke -2.5! 

40* FLORIDA/TEXAS A&M NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (Texas A&M +7) 

I was shocked to see the Aggies getting this many points at home. I just feel like we are seeing a big overreaction to how Texas A&M fared in last week’s game against Alabama. A lot of people thought the Aggies could make a game of it against the Crimson Tide and cover the +18 spread. They didn’t do either, as Alabama rolled to a 52-24 win.  

I think that has a lot of people firmly off the Texas A&M bandwagon, especially this week against a Florida team that is off to an impressive 2-0 start. Most notably Gators quarterback Kyle Trask, who is completing 72% of his attempts with a 10 to 1 TD-INT ratio.  

Given how Alabama’s Matt Jones just carved up the Aggies for 435 yards and 4 scores, most will just assume Trask does the same. I’m not going to say Trask will have a bad game, but I don’t think this Florida offense is as potent as what the Crimson Tide have to offer. Also should see a better performance from the Aggies D on their home field.  

Another thing here is that because so much focus has gone on Trask and the Florida offense, people are overlooking how bad their defense has been. Gators gave up 35 points in their opener at Ole Miss and then allowed 24 to South Carolina last week. Keep in mind this  Florida team finished 2019 giving up just 15.5 ppg and 305 yards/game.  

It’s really hard to win on the road, especially in the SEC, when you can’t stop the other team from scoring. 

I know the Aggies are far from a bottom feeder in the SEC, but there’s a chance Florida doesn’t give this team the respect they deserve after their poor showing against Alabama. This becomes even more of a concern when you factor in their home game against LSU next week.

Everyone has LSU circled on their schedules, especially Florida, who lost a back and forth thriller to the Tigers last year. Give me Texas A&M +7! 

40* VA TECH/N CAROLINA NCAAF ATS MASSACRE (Va Tech +5.5) 

I have this game much closer to a pick'em, making this an easy play on the Hokies. Virginia Tech is 2-0, despite the fact that they have been hit hard with injuries. Starting quarterback Hendon Hooker is one of several players who have missed the first game. 

However, Hooker is listed as probable on the injury report and I would expect several other Hokies to be back in action. With Hooker back in action, this Virginia Tech offense is going to be tough to stop. Hokies rushed for 314 in their opener against NC State and then had 324 in their win at Duke. Teams knew they were only looking to run and couldn't stop it. Now they are really going to pay if they sell out to try to stop it. 

As for North Carolina, this is a team that I haven't been all that impressed with. Tar Heels slept walk through the 1st half of their 31-6 win at Syracuse and then only beat BC on the road 26-22. I'm not even so sure with the lack of homefield advantage this year that UNC should even be favored. I certainly don't think they are the No. 8 best team in the country. 

This is also a spot Virginia Tech has thrived in. Hokies are 15-5 ATS last 20 road games when off a conference win by 7 or less (beat Duke 38-31) and are also 15-5 ATS last 20 as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. Give me Virginia Tech +5.5! 

40* TULANE/HOUSTON NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Houston -6.5) 

It's been a crazy start to the season for Houston. The Cougars have not played a game yet in 2020, as they have seen opponent after opponent not be able to play because of Covid. They have had 5 different games on the schedule fall through. As much as this team wants to get on the field, the extra practice certainly can't hurt. 

There's no debating on what kind of effort we are going to get from Houston. The Cougars are going to be jacked up for this one. I think Dana Holgorsen's team is going to come out and make a statement.

Houston went just 4-8 last year, which I think is playing into the number here a little and giving us a decent price at less than touchdown. Thing you have to keep in mind is starting QB D'Eriq King shocked the team by redshirting after 4 games. Not only did they lose King, they had a bunch of injuries. 

Not only that, they had a number of transfers sitting out last year. Holgorsen, who is now in year two, called his scout team defense the best in CFB history. Clearly that's an exaggeration, but still a big plus. 

Tulane beat them last year, so there's also that for motivation. Green Wave come in 2-1, but two of those wins are against Southern Miss and South Alabama. They also blew a 20+ point lead in a loss to Navy (Midshipmen have been outscored 95-10 in their other two games). 

Tulane is down one of their top rushers in Tyjae Spears and are going with true freshman Michael Pratt as their starting QB. Give me Houston -6.5! 

50* EAGLES/49ERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Eagles +7.5) 

It's only been 3 weeks into the season and everyone can't stop talking about how bad the Eagles are playing, especially starting QB Carson Wentz. It hasn't been good, but I'm willing to give this team a shot here at this price. 

Not only do I think this is a good time to buy low on Philadelphia, but I also feel like this is the perfect spot to sell high on the 49ers. San Francisco has been absolutely decimated by injuries. There's too many to list, but it's a lot and it's a lot of their best players. 

The thing is, the 49ers come into this game off two dominant wins despite all those injuries. They crushed the Jets 31-13 on the road and then beat the Giants 36-9. I get those are some lopsided scores, but the Jets and the Giants are awful. I personally think they are in a class by their own at the bottom. 

Simply put, I don't think there's a team in the league that wouldn't be overvalued after playing those two teams in consecutive weeks. Add in the 49ers being a very public team off their Super Bowl run, I believe this has been inflated even more. It would not surprise me at all if the Eagles won this game. Give me Philadelphia +7.5! 

40* COLTS/BEARS NFL STEAMROLLER (Bears +3) 

I'm honestly a bit shocked that the Bears are +3 at home. Chicago is 3-0 and off a big come from behind win over the Falcons. Colts are just 2-1 and have one of the worst losses on the season, falling to Jacksonville in Week 1. 

A lot of people see the Bears as a fluke and some of that 3-0 is definitely good fortune. The thing is that was a different team. One in which that was quarterback by Mitch Trubisky. Nick Foles replaced Trubisky and led the comeback last week. An offense that has struggled to score all season went up and down the field. Trubisky is by far one of the least talented NFL quarterbacks to start as many games as he did. 

As for the Colts, I don't know that they are all they are made out to be. They rebounded from that loss to the Jags with convincing wins over the Vikings and Jets. Minnesota doesn't looking anything close to a contender and the Jets are one of the worst teams in the league. 

The offense has left a lot to be desired and they are down quite a few key guys on that side of the ball. Chicago's defense hasn't been dominant, but we know the talent is there for them. I really think Foles being the starter adds new life to this defense. They no longer have to play perfect for them to win. Give me the Bears +3! 

40* VIKINGS/TEXANS NFL SHARP STAKE (Texans -3.5) 

I locked in the Texans early in this week. I think this is the time to jump on Houston. The Texans really had no shot at being anything other than 0-3. They had to play at the Chiefs in Week 1, hosted the Ravens in Week 2 and played at Pittsburgh in Week 3. Without question they played the two best teams in the AFC, maybe the NFL and the Steelers aren't far behind. 

The Vikings are also 0-3, but it's been a much different 0-3 than the Texans. Minnesota has not played nearly as tough of schedule. They are also getting absolutely walked all over on the defensive side of the ball. They just lost too much. There's not really anything they can do to fix it short-term. 

I'm expecting a big game out of Deshaun Watson and I'll take my chances that the Texans defense can get enough stops to put this game away and cover the spread. Kirk Cousins has been really inconsistent early. I think he clearly misses Diggs and there's so much pressure on them to score with how bad their defense is playing. Give me the Texans -3.5! 

50* CARDINALS/PANTHERS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Cardinals -3.5) 

After last week's upset loss at home to the Lions, I feel like this is the perfect time to jump on the Cardinals as a slim road favorite against the Panthers. Arizona definitely did themselves no favors with 3 turnovers (-3 turnover margin). I think some of that was just a lack of focus from them being 2-0 and feeling like they were just going to walk all over an 0-2 Lions team. 

Arizona's offense still put up a solid 377 yards and had 28 first downs. Kyler Murray wasn't nearly as effective on the ground and all 3 turnovers were interceptions he threw. I really like this kid and I think he bounces back in a big way. 

It certainly helps matters that he's facing an awful Panthers defense. Carolina is bottom half of the league against both the run and the pass. We have seen them give up 34 to the Raiders and 31 to the Bucs. They did hold the Chargers to just 16 last week, but that's very misleading. LA had 436 yards of total offense, with rookie Justin Herbert throwing for more than 300 yards. 

Add in the fact that the Panthers don't have McCaffrey and they are really left no choice but to pass. Less running means less time of possession and more possessions for the Arizona offense. I really don't think this will be close. Give me the Cardinals -3.5! 

40* OKLAHOMA/IOWA ST NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Iowa State +7.5) 

I see some great value here with the Cyclones as a 7.5-point dog at home to Oklahoma. I think we got a little too accustomed to seeing this Sooners offense plug in a new QB under head coach Lincoln Riley and dominate. They did it two years ago when Kyler Murray replaced Baker Mayfield and last year with Jalen Hurts. Thing is, both Murray and Hurts were veteran transfers. 

This year they are turning to a red-shirt freshman in Spencer Rattler. Kid is definitely talented and is more than likely going to be a star by the time he leaves Norman, but he's really raw. We saw his lack of experience show in their huge upset loss to K-State last week. He threw 3 interceptions and just looked rattled once things started to turn in the Wildcats favor. 

My big concern with Rattler in 2020, is the Sooners don't have the rushing attack that they have had in previous years. They only managed 130 rushing yards on 35 attempts against K-State. This is a team that's put up 240+ each of the last two years on the ground and 200+ in all 3 years under Riley. ISU has an outstanding run defense. 

I think the Cyclones defense will be able to put a lot of pressure on Rattler and I see him struggling in his first road start. Iowa State is not an easy place to play. I really think the Cyclones can win here. 

ISU has won and covered all 4 times they have faced OU under Matt Campbell and teams like Oklahoma that are coming off a home loss as a 23+ favorite, where they allowed 30 or more points are a dismal 1-15-1 ATS in their next game if favored against an unranked opponent. These teams are just 9-8 SU and failing to cover by more than 10 ppg. Give me Iowa State +7.5! 

50* AUBURN/GEORGIA SEC *PLAY OF THE MONTH* (Georgia -6.5) 

I love the Bulldogs laying less than a touchdown at home against the Tigers. If you were watching college football last week, many of you probably at least saw that Georgia struggled early against Arkansas. They didn't take their first lead in the game until a 3rd quarter score put them up 13-10. 

They would go on to win that game 37-10, just missing out on covering as a 28-point favorite. Still I think that slow start has some second-guessing this team. 

The big key here is there's reason to believe Georgia's offense will start much stronger in this game. Bulldogs offense took off when Stetson Bennett replaced starter Dwan Mathis. They could see a massive upgrade at the position if USC transfer J.T. Daniels shows enough in practice to win the job. However, I got confidence in Bennett if Daniels can't go. 

Another huge factor for me and laying the 6.5 is I just don't see Auburn's offense being able to do much against this Georgia defense. Many thought this Bulldogs defense was the most talented unit in the country coming into the year and they were dominant against Arkansas. Give me Georgia -6.5! 

40* ARKANSAS/MISS ST NCAAF ATS MASSACRE (Arkansas +18) 

I think this is an ideal spot to fade Mississippi State. The Bulldogs come in off a massive upset of No. 6 LSU. Mississippi State won the game 44-34. They went off as a 14.5 point dog, but were much higher. In fact I cashed a 50* Top Play on the Bulldogs +17. 

I would be lying if I said I thought they were going to put up 40+ and KJ Costello was going to throw for 600+ yards. However, I bet on Mississippi State in that game because of what I thought of LSU. 

 The Tigers couldn’t have been more overrated coming into this season. The dropped all the way back to No. 20 in the polls and with the talent in the SEC, I think they will struggle to have a winning record.  

Regardless of how overrated LSU was, that doesn’t change how motivated Mississippi State was for that game. Any time you get a shot at the defending champion, you show up with your best and that’s what they did.  Asking them to bring that same intensity into this game is asking a lot. After losing their opener to Georgia at home, Arkansas has now lost 20 straight conference games.  

Not to mention the Bulldogs have a 3-game gauntlet coming up as they go @ Kentucky, host Texas A&M and then go @ Alabama.  

I’m not just taking Arkansas because of the spot. I liked the hire of head coach Sam Pittman and even more so offensive coordinator Kendall Briles. They also brought in former Florida QB Felipe Franks to guide the offense. I know they only scored 10 against Georgia, but that’s a defense that many thought might be the best overall unit in the country this year.  

I’m confident the Razorbacks will be able to move the ball against this Mississippi State defense, that clearly still has some learning to do in their new 3-3-5 scheme. I’ll take my chances with Arkansas keeping it within 17 or less. Give me the Razorbacks +18 

40* TCU/TEXAS NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER (TCU +13) 

Hats off to Texas for their crazy come-from-behind win against Texas Tech last week. Longhorns trailed by 15 with 3:13 to play. They managed to score twice to force OT and then won it in extra time. 

That's great, but it doesn't change the fact that they trailed Texas Tech by 15 with 3 minutes to play. Or that their defense gave up 56 points and 447 yards. The same Texas Tech team that only beat Houston Baptist 35-33 in their opener. 

I just don't think Texas should be laying almost two TDs against this TCU team. Horned Frogs lost their opener to ISU, but backup Matthew Downing started the game, before starter Max Duggan took over in the 2nd half. For those that don't know, Duggan had a heart problem and was clearly shortly before the game, so that's why he didn't start. 

TCU's offense scored just 7 points in the 1st half under Downing. They had 27 in the 2nd half under Duggan. He's a difference maker and played a big role in TCU's 37-27 win over Texas last year, throwing for 273 yards and 2 scores, while also rushing for 72 yards and a score. Give me TCU +13! 

40* BAYLOR/W VIRGINIA NCAAF ATS SLAUGHTER (W Virginia +3) 

I'm going to back the Mountaineers as a slim home dog against Baylor on Saturday. I played West Virginia last week at +6.5 against Oklahoma State. They didn't get there in a 27-13 loss, but were a bit unfortunate to not do so. They killed themselves falling behind 17-0 early, thanks in large part to a fumble that the Cowboys returned 56 yards for a score. 

West Virginia was able to climb back within 7 points in the 4th quarter. They ended up outgaining Oklahoma State 353-342. 

I like what I've seen out of junior quarterback Jarret Doege and I think we are going to see the Mountaineers offense show up in a big way against the Bears. 

Don't overreact to Baylor's 47-14 blowout win over Kansas in their first game. That Jayhawks team is trash and that's a very misleading score. Baylor only outgained Kansas 352 to 328. They got 16 points from their defense/special teams (safety and two kickoff return TDs). They also added a garbage TD up 40-14 late in the 4th quarter. 

Keep in mind Baylor is expected to be down some this year. They are in the first year of new head coach Dave Aranda, who is a defensive guy in a game that has gotten really offensive over the last decade. Baylor's defense only returned 2 starters and lost their 3 studs up front. I also think it's concerning that Brewer only went 15 of 23 for 142 yards against that KU defense. Give me West Virginia +3! 

50* NC STATE/PITT NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Pittsburgh -14) 

I played against Pitt last week against Louisville and was a bit fortunate to get a push with the Cardinals at +3. I didn't think that Panthers defense was going to look as good as it did. They made a really good QB in Louisville's Malik Cunningham look bad. Cunningham was just 9 of 21 for 107 yards with a 1 TD and 3 INTs. Cunningham had thrown for 300+ in each of his first two games, including 307 and 3 scores against Miami the week before. 

Pitt should have no problem getting enough stops against this NC State team to pull away an easily cover the two touchdown spread. The Wolfpack had more than their fair share of troubles moving the ball against the Hokies last week. They only had 10 points midway thru the 3rd quarter and trailed 37-10 at that point. They added two TDs the rest of the way, but you got to think some of that was the Hokies calling off the dogs. 

Key here is that while the Panthers offense is a bit limited, they should have zero problem putting up points against this NC State defense. They just gave up 45 to Virginia Tech and the Hokies played without their starting QB Malik Hooker. They could not stop the run, giving up 314 yards on 41 attempts. This is after they allowed 42 the week before against a bad Wake Forest offense. Give me Pittsburgh -14! 

50* BRONCOS/JETS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Broncos -3) 

I spent a lot of time handicapping this game and as much as I wanted to take the Jets as a home dog, I just can't do it. New York is awful. I really think they are going to lose big again and there's a good chance they fire Gase after this game. 

With scoring way up this year, the Jets are as bad a offensive team as I can remember. They have scored 37 points in 3 games (12.3 ppg). Last week their offense scored 7 points and gave up 16 (two pick sixes and a safety). New York has not held a lead at any point this season. 

Darnold has not played well, but it's not all his fault. The talent that has been put around him is a joke. Thing could get worse. Jets stud rookie left tackle Mekhi Becton is likely not going to play with a shoulder injury. Note their swing tackle Chuma Edoga is already filling in at right tackle for the injure George Fant. 

I'm not going to sit here an endorse the Broncos, because there's a lot of problems with this team. More than anything injuries have ravaged this team. I know they weren't all that competitive last week against Tampa Bay, but they had a shot at winning Week 1 against the Titans (lost 14-16) and Week 2 at Pittsburgh (lost 21-26). I just think they are the better coached and more talented team. Give me the Broncos -3! 

*This line has moved quite a bit since Denver announced that Rypien is going to start. When I handicapped this game I assumed there was a chance he would play. I think we are seeing a big overreaction with the line move. It doesn't change how I feel about this play. 

50* CHIEFS/RAVENS MNF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ravens -3)

*Analysis Coming* 

50* PACKERS/SAINTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Saints -3)

This is a no-brainer if you ask me. All we are hearing right now is how washed up Drew Brees is (only time a guy throws for 300+ in a game and is getting dogged). I can't imagine how jacked up the Saints are to get on the field for this game. I got good feeling here that Brees is going to quiet some of those critics in this one. 

What people overlook with the Saints 24-34 loss to the Raiders is they beat themselves. New Orleans put up 424 yards and averaged a ridiculous 7.3 yards/play. It looked like it was JV vs varsity early on. Penalties killed a lot of Saints drives. 

Let's also not overlook the fact that New Orleans is just not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. With Payton as head coach, Saints are 28-13 ATS last 41 off a road loss. 

As for the Packers, people are firmly on the Green Bay bandwagon after they have opened up 2-0 with a 43-34 win over the Vikings and 42-21 victory against Detroit. I just don't think either of those teams are any good, especially on the defensive side. 

Big loss here for Rodgers and the Packers offense with wideout Davante Adams doubtful to play. Green Bay has also been running the ball with a ton of success (had 259 on the ground vs Lions). New Orleans is only giving up 3.3 yards/carry. I just think GB has trouble keeping pace with the Saints. Give me New Orleans -3! 

40* TITANS/VIKINGS NFL STEAMROLLER (Titans -2.5) 

Every year there’s a team the books just can’t price right early on. I believe Minnesota is that team in 2020. I’m certainly not going to stop fading the Vikings now. Especially when all we really need is for Tennessee to win the game.  

I had a 50* Top Play on Green Bay +2.5 in Week 1 at Minnesota and last week I gave out the Colts -3 at home against the Vikings. Neither game was close.  That’s the key. It’s not shocking that Minnesota is 0-2 having started out against Aaron Rodgers and on the road against a good Colts team. It’s how they competed in those games.  

Since Mike Zimmer took over as head coach in 2014, defense has been the foundation of this team and no surprise given Zimmer’s defensive background.  Don’t get me wrong he’s a great defensive coach. He just doesn’t have the players on the roster for his coaching to matter. They were decimated on the defensive line and at corner. Now they are down one of their best linebackers in Anthony Barr.  

They just gave up 100-yard game to rookie running back Jonathan Taylor and now have to try to stop the beast that is Derek Henry.  Everyone also just thinks Henry when they think of the Titans. Ryan Tannehill can sling it. He’s thrown 6 touchdowns without a pick in his first two starts and if you back to last season, he’s thrown 2 or more TDs in 13 of his last 15 starts and that includes his 3 playoff starts.

As for the Vikings offense, Kirk Cousins was awful against the Colts. He completed just 11 of 26 for 113 yards and threw 3 interceptions. I think he really misses Stefon Diggs.  

I think some of these coaches/GMs are learning the hard way how much a negative impact losing a star WR like Diggs or DeAndre Hopkins can have, especially when you don’t replace him with an equal talent. I think it hurts even more for an average QB like Cousins.  

Lastly I think not having fans is a massive blow to the Vikings.  Minnesota doesn’t always get mentioned as a tough place to play, but the advanced numbers suggest they had one of the biggest homefield advantages of any team. This year more than any that defense needs the energy of the crowd and it’s just not there. Give me the Titans -2.5. 

40* TEXANS/STEELERS NFL SHARP STAKE (Steelers -4) 

I'm going to roll the dice here with Pittsburgh laying just 4-points at home against the Texans. The Steelers let me down last week, as they won by just 5 at home over the Broncos (led by double-digits in the 4th). It was a real sloppy showing for Pittsburgh, who may have let their guard down after Broncos starting QB Drew Lock left the game early with an injury. 

I expect a much more focused and energized Steelers team off that poor showing against a top tier QB like Deshaun Watson. That's all we really need for Pittsburgh to win and cover here. As good as Watson is, he's really all the Texans got and some of his talent is negated by the poor coaching of Bill O'Brien. 

Watson also has a tendency to hold on to the ball too long and that's a recipe for disaster against this top tier Steelers pass rush. Look for the Texans to be playing behind the chains all day in this one. Give me Pittsburgh -4! 

50* RAIDERS/PATRIOTS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Patriots -5) 

I love the value here with New England at -5. I've been pretty spot on with the Patriots early on. I cashed on them -6.5 in Week 1 against the Dolphins then won easily on the the Pats/Seahawks O44.5 in Week 2. I really think this team is better than they are getting credit for. This is one of the best teams in the AFC. 

The Raiders are getting a ton of love for their 34-24 win over the Saints on MNF in Week 2 (I was on Oakland +6), but I just don't think they are as good as what people think. The defense gave up 7.4 yards/play against New Orleans. Penalties really killed the Saints (10 for 129). NE is a disciplined team under Belichick, so that edge won't be there in this one. 

This is also an awful spot for Oakland. Raiders are on short rest after playing on MNF. They also are having to travel across the country for an early game, which is never easy for the west coast teams. Give me the Patriots -5! 

50* VA TECH/NC STATE *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Virginia Tech -6.5) 

I love the value here with the Hokies laying less than a touchdown at home against the Wolfpack. I don't know if it's the fact that NC State put up 45 points in last week's season opener against Wake Forest, but I don't know what the books are seeing that makes them think the Wolfpack can make a game of this. 

NC State had 270 yards on 49 rushing attempts against the Demon Deacons. They aren't going to sniff those kind of numbers against the Hokies. Virginia Tech has 10 returning starters on a defense that only gave up 139 ypg last year. I know Bud Foster is gone, but the defense should be improved. 

I also think you got to look at how much better the offense was last year once Hendon Hooker took over at QB. They put up 34.3 ppg in his 8 starts and he completed 61% of his attempts with a 13-2 TD-INT ratio. 

Hokies should have a field day here offensively against a NC State defense that allowed 42 points to Wake Forest. The same WF team that had 3 points thru 3 quarters the previous week against Clemson. Give me the Hokies -6.5! 

40* TENNESSEE/S CAROLINA NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Tennessee -3) 

I think we are getting a gift with the Volunteers only laying a field goal on the road against South Carolina. If there's a team that no one is talking about that could make some series noise in the SEC this year, I think Tennessee has to be at the top of that list. 

Sure the expectations are high, but no one is giving this team a shot at winning the East. It's all Georgia and Florida. I'm not saying they will, but they beat Georgia last year and played Florida tough. 

Tennessee is now in year three under Jeremy Pruitt and will have 17 returning starters. With a healthy Jarrett Guarantano at quarterback, the offense should take a huge jump this year. As for the defense, it's only gotten better since Pruitt arrived. Vols allowed 27.9 ppg in his first year with only 6 starters back and 21.7 ppg last year with only 5 starters back. 

South Carolina went just 4-8 last year and should be improved, I don't think they are anywhere close in terms of talent. I also think it's a big deal that Williams-Brice has a fan limit on games. Give me the Volunteers -3! 

50* MISS ST/LSU NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Mississippi State +17) 

I will gladly take the 17-points with Mike Leach and Mississippi State against LSU. Last year was something special, but I'm just not buying the Tigers being anywhere close to what they were given what they lost. LSU has just 8 starters back from their title team. 

Not only do they have to replace the Heisman winner in Joe Burrow, but WR Justin Jefferson and RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire both were 1st round picks in the NFL draft. It's not just the players either, LSU lost their passing game coordinator in Joe Brady and one of the best defensive coordinators coordinators in the country in Dave Aranda (head coach at Baylor). 

Say what you want about Leach, the guy knows how to coach offense and his teams at Washington State always seemed to be better than expected. I can think back to 2018 when they had only 10 starters back and went 11-2. I think he can do wonders with new quarterback K.J. Costello, who transferred in from Stanford. I also think the defense will be able to hold its own. It wouldn't shock me at all if the Bulldogs won this game. Give me Mississippi State +17! 

40* GEORGIA TECH/SYRACUSE CFB VEGAS INSIDER (Georgia Tech -7.5) 

The fact that Georgia Tech is laying more than a touchdown on the road against the Orange, tells you everything you need to know about how little the books think of this Syracuse team. 

I think a lot of people are going to look at this line and be inclined to take the points. Not me. As painful as it was to watch Georgia Tech commit turnover after turnover in their failed attempt to cover against UCF, they are 100% the better team in this matchup. 

Syracuse hung around at UNC in their opener, but the wheels fell off in the 2nd half and the Tar Heels wound up winning and covering 31-6. The Orange were able to cash in a cover as a 21.5-point dog against Pitt, but that was a lot more lopsided than the final. Panthers had a 342-171 edge in total yards 

I don't think Georgia Tech is getting enough credit for how good they have been given they had to start out the year against FSU and UCF. As long as they don't turn it over 5 times like they did against the Knights, I think the Yellow Jackets win here by double-digits without much problem. Give me Georgia Tech -7.5! 

40* LOUISVILLE/PITT NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Louisville +3) 

I think this is a prime spot to jump on the Cardinals after a disappointing showing at home against Miami. A lot of people were laying the -2.5 with Louisville in that game. Including myself.  It can be hard to back the same team that just cost you money the week before, especially when it never felt like Louisville was the right team the entire way.  

Cardinals took a 3-0 lead, but quickly fell behind 14-3 by the end of the 1st quarter. They would get it down to 7 twice in the 3rd quarter, only to give up a TD in a matter of seconds. First they gave up a 75 yard run, then it was a 75 yard pass.  I’m not about to say Louisville should have won that game. Even with a 516 to 485 edge in total yards and 29-19 advantage in first downs, Miami was the better team in that game.  

I do think Louisville hurt themselves in that game. Not finishing drives early and they were -3 in the turnover department. I just think Scott Satterfield and that staff will have the players full attention in practice.  I said this earlier in the season, the Cardinals have a bit time talent at quarterback in Malik Cunningham. They also got some really good playmakers at running back and receiver.  

Pittsburgh was suppose to field a great defense this year, at least until they lost 2nd-Team All-American defensive tackle Jaylen Twyman and one of their top secondary players in Damarri Mathis. Instead of 7 starters back they only return 5 and the loss of Twyman is big.  I get the defense shutout Austin Peay in their opener and held Syracuse to 10 points and 171 yards, but that’s nothing to be excited about. This is a massive step up in competition for them and we just saw what Louisville can do against a great defensive team. 

 I don’t love what I see out of the Pitt offense, especially given who they have played. While the Panthers are averaging 137 yards/game on the ground, they only managed 3.5 yards/carry. I think Louisville can really make them one dimensional and I just don’t see Pitt being able to keep pace. Give me the Cardinals +3.  

40* MIDD TENN/UTSA CFB SHARP STAKE (UTSA -6.5) 

I'm backing UTSA laying less than a touchdown at home against the Blue Raiders. I just don't know how Middle Tennessee's defense will be able to make enough stops to keep this close. The Blue Raiders lost 42-0 in their opener to Army and were outgained 368 to 184. That's a ton against a team like the Black Knights who don't throw the ball (shortens the game). They followed that up with a 47-14 loss to Troy, getting outgained 496-241. 

The books weren't even close with the spreads for either of those games. Middle Tennessee was only +3.5 against Army and the same +6.5 against Troy. I get UTSA isn't a great team, but they won their first two games and have a dual threat QB in Frank Harris (rushed for 155 yards and 5 scores in 2 games). Bad defenses against mobile quarterbacks, usually doesn't go well. Give me the Roadrunners -6.5! 

40* UAB/S ALABAMA NCAAF NO BRAINER (S Alabama +7.5) 

I played and won on the Jaguars in their 32-21 upset win at Southern Miss as a 12-point dog in Week 1. I've also played against UAB early on (@ Miami) and cashed. Hard for me to not take South Alabama catching more than a TD at home. I don't think it would be a shock at all if the Jags won this game. 

UAB gets a lot of love for what they have done, but last year's trip to the C-USA title game was real fluky. They weren't that good of a team and we saw that in the title game, which they lost 49-6 to FAU. They have been overpriced by the books in each of their first two, as they only beat Central Arkansas by 10 as a near 3 TD favorite in Week 1. Give me South Alabama +7.5! 

40* SAINTS/RAIDERS MNF VEGAS INSIDER (Raiders +6) 

I'm going to put my trust in Jon Gruden and the Raiders as a near touchdown dog at home on Monday Night Football. I just feel there's too much value with Las Vegas to pass up. 

I know the Saints pulled away from Tom Brady and the Bucs in their 34-23 Week 1 win and cover, but I wasn't all that impressed with New Orleans. At least not to the extent of others. Drew Brees was only 18 of 30 for 160 yards (5.3 per attempt). New Orleans as a team only had 271 total yards. They still don't have Mike Thomas and he's such a huge part of what they do offensively. 

Raiders snuck out a 34-30 on the road in Week 1 at Carolina. Plenty Las Vegas has to work on, but I thought they ran the ball really well with Jacobs and Booker. Derek Carr also played well. I think they can play ball control and keep the possessions down. If they do that, they might win this game outright. Give me the Raiders +6! 

50* NFC *MAX BET* PLAY OF THE MONTH (Cardinals -6.5) 

I’m a huge Kyler Murray fan. He was the reason I was on Arizona over their win total last year. There’s been nothing but positive things said about this kid since he got into the league.  He was absolutely sensational in last week’s win against the 49ers, completing 65% of his attempts for 230 yards and rushing for another 91 yards on 13 attempts.  

He’s going to have to run less as he gets older if he wants to do this for a long time, but for now it makes him and this Arizona offense extremely difficult to guard, especially now that he has one of the best receivers in the league to throw to in DeAndre Hopkins.  

I just see Murray and the Cardinals offense doing as they please in this one. I know Washington’s run defense held the Eagles in check, but Philly was without their top back in Miles Sanders. Eagles were also without top wideout Alshon Jeffery and two multiple pro bowl offensive linemen in right tackle Lane Johnson and right guard Brandon Brooks.  

I also think this Washington offense is going to end up being one of the worst in the league. I’m sorry but Dwayne Haskins is not an NFL quarterback. He went 17 of 31 for 178 yards in their win. They also don’t got anything that excites me at the skill positions. Arizona’s defense isn’t great, but this is a much easier task than what they just faced in the 49ers. Give me the 49ers -6.5

40* VIKINGS/COLTS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Colts -3) 

I’m going to lay the field goal with the Colts at home against the Vikings.  I almost laid the touchdown with Indianapolis in Week 1 at Jacksonville. Glad I didn’t, but I’m not so sure it wasn’t the right play despite the result.  

The Colts had a 445 to 241 edge in total yards. They outgained the Jaguars by 204 yards. That was the best yardage differential of any team in Week 1.  I know Philip Rivers had a couple of costly interceptions that led to the score being what it was, but I still think he makes the Colts a contender. Losing Marlon Mack to a season-ending injury is a big blow, but they drafted a guy who many thought was going to overtake him in Jonathan Taylor.  

I think this offense is going to be able to whatever they want against this Vikings defense. Minnesota was gashed in Week 1, allowing a league-worst 522 yards to the Packers. Not only did Aaron Rodgers carve them up for 364 yards and 4 scores, Green Bay rushed for 158 yards and 4.9 yards/carry.  

This is not your typical Mike Zimmer defense. They don’t got legit NFL corners on their roster. They knew the ball was going to Davante Adams and there was nothing they could do to stop it. Adams had 14 catches for 156 yards and 2 scores.  Minnesota is also not nearly as strong on the defensive line and we saw that with how Green Bay ran all over them.  

Lastly, I think the Indianapolis defense doesn’t get the respect it deserves. They have been getting better and better ever since they drafted linebacker Darius Leonard. I also loved the addition of defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. I think they can make life difficult here on Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota offense. Give me the Colts -3!  

40* BRONCOS/STEELERS NFL STEAMROLLER (Steelers -7) 

I just don't see Drew Lock and that Denver offense being able to score enough to make a game of this. This Steelers defense is the real deal. They just held Saquon Barkley to a mere 6 yards on 15 attempts.

Denver does have Melvin Gordon, but the loss of Phillip Lindsay is big for this team. We also don't know if Lock will have wideout Courtland Sutton or KJ Hamler. I think Pittsburgh can make the Broncos one-dimensional. 

Denver's held the Titans to just 14 points in Week 1, but Tennessee moved the ball up and down the field against them. If it wasn't for all those missed kicks, Titans would have won by double-digits.

Pittsburgh has a much more explosive offense than Tennessee. Big Ben is also one of those guys that puts up way better stats at home than on the road. This game doesn't figure to be close for long. Give me the Steelers -7! 

50* MIAMI/LOUISVILLE CFB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Louisville -2.5) 

We cashed on Scott Satterfield's Cardinals in Week 1. It wasn't the most lopsided of Covers. Louisville only won by 14 (35-21) as a 11.5-point favorite. Thing is the final score doesn't paint the right picture. Louisville dominated that game. They had a massive 487-248 edge in total yards with a 22-12 advantage in first downs. 

The good news is, I think it's helping us with the line on the Cardinals this week. It's not going to be much longer before people realize how good this Louisville team is. They got a star at quarterback in Malik Cunningham. He threw for 343 yards and 3 scores against the Hilltoppers. That kind of talent at QB with an experienced team is danger. 

Miami defeated UAB 35-14 as a 15.5-point favorite. A lot of people doubted the Hurricanes could cover that two+ TD spread. I think it now has the Hurricanes a bit overvalued. I had Miami in that game. I just didn't think the Blazers were all people were making them out to be. The Hurricanes had a talent edge across the board. They won't have that against Louisville. 

Also, that game was closer than the final score would lead on. Miami only led 17-14 midway through the 3rd quarter. I honestly expected a lot more out of the Hurricanes. I just don't know if Manny Diaz is the right guy at head coach for that program. Give me the Cardinals -2.5! 

40* UCF/GEORGIA TECH NCAAF SHARP STAKE (Georgia Tech +7.5) 

I couldn't have been more wrong with my assumption of Georgia Tech coming into this season. I just thought this whole transition from the triple-option to a more conventional offense would be a lot harder than it has. Head coach Geoff Collins has sped up the process. That's a good Florida State team that they just went on the road and beat. 

It wasn't just that the Yellow Jackets wanted it more against the Seminoles. They were the better team. It also feels like they have struck gold with true freshman quarterback Jeff Sims. He went 24 or 35 for 277 passing yards. He also rushed for 64 yards on 13 attempts. He did throw 2 picks, but for me he passed the eye test. He's why this team is a ahead of schedule. 

I know there's concern of a letdown off the big upset win, I just don't see it happening. I think Georgia Tech is playing with a chip on their shoulder and what better way to make a statement than back up that win with another win. This time against a top 15 team in UCF. One in which Collins has connections with (UCF assistant 2008-09). No way I'm passing up on the 7.5, but I like Georgia Tech to win this game. Give me the Yellow Jackets +7.5!