40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS BLOWOUT (Virginia -15) 

I'll take my chances here with Virginia laying it on Georgia Tech. I was really impressed with Virginia's win last week at UNC and there's just no way Bronco Mendenhall is going to let his team suffer a letdown going into their late season bye. It's not secret the Cavaliers have a great defense and that's where I think we get our separation. Georgia Tech's offense is bad and offer little to no threat in the passing game. That's a problem against a Virginia defense that gives up just 3.3 yards/carry against the run. People like to knock the Cavaliers offense, but they are averaging 30.8 ppg and that jumps up to 39.7 ppg at home. Yellow Jackets also give up 218 yards/game and 4.7 yards/carry vs the run. Virginia is outscoring teams at home by 21.7 ppg. Give me the Cavaliers -15! 

50* PENN ST/MINNESOTA BIG 10 GAME OF THE MONTH (Penn State -6.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Nittany Lions going into Minnesota and winning by at least a touchdown. It's crazy to me how everyone has fallen in love with this Gophers team after dogging them early for near losses against South Dakota State, Fresno State, Georgia Southern and Purdue. Sure they have since whooped Illinois, Nebraska, Rutgers and Maryland, but those are all bad teams. Penn State has been battle tested with wins over Iowa, Michigan and Michigan State in their last 3. They have heard all the talk about the Gophers during their bye week and I look for them to make a statement on Saturday. Where I think this gets ugly for Minnesota is they rely so much on the running game and I just don't see them being able to run on this Nittany Lions defense. Penn State is giving up a mere 68 ypg and 2.0 yards/carry this season. They are holding teams over 60 yards and 1.7 yards/carry under their season average. Give me the Nittany Lions -6.5! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS SLAUGHTER (Tulsa +17.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Golden Hurricane covering the 17.5 at home against UCF. I think a lot of people will assume Tulsa wont' show up here because they no longer have a shot at a bowl, but I'm not buying it. They are going to come to play at home against a team like the Knights in a primetime weekday game. Tulsa has more than held their own against the top teams in the AAC. They only lost by 1 at home to Memphis, by just 11 at Cincinnati and by a mere 6 at SMU. Easily could have won all of those games. Give me the Golden Hurricane +17.5! 

40* TEMPLE/S FLORIDA THURS NIGHT ATS KNOCKOUT (South Florida +2) 

I'll take my chances here with Charlie Strong having the Bulls ready to pounce on Temple tonight. I really like how Strong has got his teams to play coming off a bye and I think this South Florida team is riding a huge wave of momentum right now. I get they had some ugly losses, but the talent is there. As for Temple, I don't get why people are so high on this team. They got a win over Memphis, but that was the Tigers beating themselves. The Owls showed their true colors in the last two against SMU and UCF. This is also a team that lost by 16 on the road to Buffalo team that isn't very good. I think the wrong team is favored. Give me USF +2!

40* NCAAF WEDNESDAY MAC ATS NO-BRAINER (Miami +7) 

This line basically says that Ohio would be a 3.5-point favorite on a neutral field. I would have it closer to a pick’em, making this an easy play on the RedHawks. 

It’s not the first time the line has been inflated on Ohio this season. It’s why the Bobcats come into this game with a 2-6 ATS record. I don’t blame the books, as the public is backing Ohio at this price, so why not set it higher than it should be.

I like Chuck Martin and what he’s done with this program and he’s well on his way to taking Miami to their 2nd bowl game in 4 years (note that they were just 1 win away from bowl eligibility in 2017 and last year were 6-6 and just didn’t get an invite). Note that when he took over the RedHawks had been to a grand 3 bowl games since 1986.

Let’s also not overlook the fact that Miami comes in at 4-4 with 3 of their losses coming on the road against the likes of Iowa, Cincinnati and Ohio State.

Another thing I don’t like about Ohio laying this big a number is the way their defense has played. Bobcats allowed just 21 to Ball State, but a lot of that had to do with mother nature making conditions unfavorable to pass. The previous two games they gave up 38 to Kent State and 39 to Northern Illinois. They also allowed 45 to Lafayette. Give me Miami +7!

40* NCAAF TUESDAY NIGHT MAC NO-BRAINER (Kent St +7) 

This could turn out to be some really good value, as Toledo starting quarterback Mitchell Guadagni and backup quarterback Carter Bradley are both listed as questionable. If they can’t go I would actually give Kent State a good shot at winning this game outright. Not that they can’t of Guadagni or Bradley are able to go.

The other thing I think that’s playing into this line is just the public perception of these two programs. Kent State is not a team that people have wanted to bet on for a while now. The Golden Flashes haven’t won more than 4 games since that magical 11-3 season in 2012. While they have played a tough schedule with 3 Power 5 road games and have shown well in MAC play, the public only sees that they are 3-5 with 3 wins over Kennesaw State, Bowling Green and Akron.

I really think that head coach Sean Lewis is a head coach on the rise. When they hired him last year, he became the youngest head coach in the FBS at 31. He’s an offensive minded guy, who spent 6 years under Dino Babers in Syracuse, serving as the co-OC his last two years. He took over a Golden Flashes offense that averaged just 12.8 ppg in 2017 and got them to 23.9 ppg in 2018. They also jumped from 275 ypg to 384 ypg. This year they are at just 23.9 ppg and 366 ypg, but a lot of that is playing those 3 games against Arizona State, Auburn and Wisconsin.

Toledo’s defense has also been a big problem of late. They gave up 52 points and almost 600 yards of total offense to Ball State and then allowed 34 points and 450+ yards to Eastern Michigan. Give me Kent State +7!

50* COWBOYS/GIANTS MNF ATS NO-BRAINER (Cowboys -6.5)

I'll take my chances here with Dallas laying less than a touchdown against the Giants. These two teams played in Week 1 and the Cowboys rolled to a 35-17. They were really in complete control the whole way, leading 21-7 at the half and 35-10 going into the 4th quarter. 

People are wanting to give the Giants a pass on that game because Eli Manning started, but it's not like he played bad. Manning was 30 or 44 with 306 yards and a TD (0 interceptions). How much more can the rookie Daniel Jones give them? 

Dallas had that ugly 3-game losing streak before crushing the Eagles 37-10 in Week 7. They took that win into the bye and that extra time to prepare for this game is huge. Philadelphia has also rolled off 2 straight wins since they beat them and they need this game to stay in front of the NFC East. 

Cowboys have only been outgained in 1 game this season and that was by 9 yards at New Orleans against the Saints in a 12-10 loss. In their loss to Green Bay they outgained the Packers by 228 yards. Giants defense is awful.

Dallas is 13-2 ATS Last 15 division games and have covered 5 straight against the Giants. New York is just 2-9-1 ATS last 12 at home. Give me the Cowboys -6.5! 

40* NFL (Patriots -3) 

I'll take my chances with New England laying just a field goal against the Ravens. There really doesn't need to be a lot said. The Patriots are a ridiculous 46-19 (71%) ATS in their last 65 games. I get the schedule has been easy, but if you think that's why the defense has been so good you are wrong. The defense is good because Belichick is the defensive coordinator. I look for the Patriots defense to gameplan 100% around keeping Jackson in the pocket and forcing him to make throws from the pocket, something I'm still not convinced he can do consistently. This is also not the same caliber a Ravens defense as years past. Give me the Pats -3! 

40* NFL (Bills -10) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bills as a double-digit favorite against the Redskins. As soon as Washington named Haskins the starter because Keenum was out, I knew I was going to be on Buffalo. Not only do I think the Bills defense will be too much for Haskins, who has shown nothing to make you think he's ready for this stage, but I also love that we are getting Buffalo off that ugly loss to the Eagles at home last week. That almost guarantees there will be zero looking past this bad Redskins team. Look for a few Redskins turnovers to play a big part in this thing getting out of control. Give me the Bills -10! 

40* NFL (Bears +4.5) 

I'll take my chances with Chicago as a 4.5-point dog. Everyone is throwing the Bears under the bus right now and no one is picking Chicago to win this game with the Eagles coming off that big win over Buffalo. I just don't trust Philadelphia as much as others. I still think this team is overvalued because of their SB win a couple years ago. We have not seen the same Carson Wentz that was the MVP frontrunner before getting hurt a couple years ago. I think the Bears defense is going to really give Wentz and that offense fits in this game. Chicago's offense is struggling to score, but have moved the ball much better in their two games since their bye. They had almost 400 yards last week against the Chargers and just 16 points to show for it. Give me the Bears +4.5! 

50* NFL NON-CONF PLAY OF THE MONTH (Panthers -3) 

I just feel like this is the ideal spot to jump on the Panthers and I think we are getting a great price due to the fact that Carolina is off that ugly 51-13 loss at San Francisco and the Titans come in off back-to-back wins and covers.

First things first, the Panthers are the first team to get their butts kicked by the 49ers. Sure the offense only had 13 points and Kyle Allen played like crap, but San Francisco hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in any game this season. As for Allen and him throwing for just 158 yards with a 0-3 TD-INT ratio, that is not all that surprising against that defense. The 49ers have only given up 284 passing yards in their last 4 games combined.

Prior to that performance Allen had really been playing well. In the previous 4 games during the Panthers 4-game winning streak, he averaged 225 yards/game and posted a perfect 7-0 TD-INT ratio. Titans are just middle of the pack in passing defense and have allowed over 600 yards thru the air in their last two games.

Not only do I expect Allen to have a big bounce back performance, I think we get an unbelievable effort from the entire Panthers team. It’s so much easier to respond from a blowout loss than a game where you lose in the final seconds.

As for the Titans, I think this team is very fortunate to be 4-4. All 4 wins have come against teams who have losing records and own a combined 8-22 mark on the season. Last week they were outgained by the Bucs 389 to 246 and their only two TD drives in the first 3 quarters were off turnovers where the offense had to go 10 yards or less.

History is also on our side. Panthers are 23-6 under head coach Ron Rivera when off a road loss and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 under Rivera when off a road loss by 14 or more points. Give me Carolina -3!

50* NCAAF PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR (Colorado +7) 

I love the Buffaloes here as a 7-point dog against UCLA. The Bruins are fresh off an impressive 42-32 upset win at home over Arizona State and I believe it has them way overvalued here. This is still the same team that lost by 17 at home to Oregon State. Colorado has lost 4 in a row, but have been down a few key guys to injury and played 3 of the top teams in the conference in Washington, Washington State and USC. Colorado is healthier than they have been and I wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. Give me the Buffaloes +7! 

40* NCAAF PRIME TIME ATS SLAUGHTER (Ole Miss +20) 

I just think there’s a ton of hidden value here with the Rebels, as this is an absolutely brutal spot for Auburn. The Tigers are coming off that emotional loss to LSU, a game they absolutely had to have to have any shot at winning the SEC West. Bouncing back from that would have been tough on its own, but they also got a massive lookahead game at home next week against No. 8 Georgia.

I think it’s asking a lot for Auburn to have win this game by three touchdowns, especially when you factor in how much this game means to Ole Miss. The Rebels have to win here to have a legit shot at making a bowl game. Another big factor in favor of Ole Miss is they are going to be well rested and prepared coming off their bye week.

There’s also a great system in play favoring a fade of Auburn. Explosive offensive teams that are averaging 34+ points/games vs average defensive teams (21-28 ppg) are just 14-40 (26%) ATS since 1992 if they are coming off a loss by 3 or less at least 7 games into the season.

Home favorites who have won 60% to 80% of their games are also just 38-76 (33%) ATS if they come in having lost two of their last three. Give me Ole Miss +20.

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Oregon State +6) 

I actually think Oregon State has a great shot at winning this game outright. Arizona is a complete mess. The Wildcats had to show their DC the door after giving up 51 to Washington, 41 to USC and 41 to Stanford in their last 3 games. Arizona could easily be 2-6 as they have a mere 5-point win over Colorado and a 3-point victory against UCLA. Beavers have covered 5 of their last 6 as the books just aren't adjusting properly. They are also a perfect 3-0 ATS on the road with a couple of outright wins as a dog. This offense should have a field day against the Wildcats. Give me Oregon State +6! 

50* UTAH/WASHINGTON SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Utah -3) 

I'll take my chances here with Utah laying just a field goal on the road against Washington. It feels like people are trying to find anything they can to take the Huskies as a home dog. I get it, but at the same time, I feel it's going to take a perfect game from Washington for them to win this matchup. I know the Huskies passing numbers are solid, but I think a lot of that stems from their run game and you aren't running the ball on this Utah defense. Utes are giving up a mere 2.5 yards/carry. They are also pretty good against the pass, allowing just 5.6 yards/attempt and 56% completions. Utah will simply have the easier time moving the football, making them a no-brainer at this price. Give me the Utes -3! 

40* NCAAF VEGAS ATS LINE MISTAKE (Oklahoma St -2.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Mike Gundy and the Cowboys laying less than a field goal at home against TCU. I'm not quite sure why the Horned Frogs are getting so much love in this one. TCU is coming off a nice win at home against Texas, but the Longhorns have been trending in the wrong direction. I was actually more impressed with Oklahoma State's win on the road against Iowa State as a 11-point dog. TCU has lost both of their Big 12 road games and this is definitely not an easy place to go and get a win. Give me the Cowboys -2.5! 

50* NCAAF NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (Virginia Tech +17.5) 

I think the public perception is that the Irish are going to be pissed off from that ugly loss to Michigan and will bounce back at home. I just have a hard time seeing it. I just don’t see a ton of motivation for the Irish now that they are out of the playoff picture.

Not only do I feel like Notre Dame is getting way too much respect, I still think the public is slow to take notice to how much better the Hokies are right now compared to early on. This is a different team than the one that started 2-2 with those ugly losses to BC and Duke. There’s just a different feel to this team with Hendon Hooker at quarterback.

I not only think Virginia Tech has the goods to keep this within the number, but I would give them an outside shot at winning this game outright. Notre Dame is 2-0 against teams from the ACC, but they only won by 18 at home to Louisville and by 15 at home against Virginia. Both of those games were a lot more competitive than the final scores would indicate. They only outgained the Cardinals by 40 yards and were outgained by 16 yards by the Cavaliers.

Another big factor here that can’t be overlooked is that while Notre Dame just played in arguably the biggest game of their season (they win that and they are in the driver seat to finish 11-1 and make the playoffs), while the Hokies were on a bye. Having two weeks to prepare for a team is huge, especially this late in the year.

Virginia Tech is 15-5 ATS last 20 off an upset win over a conference rival and 15-5 ATS last 20 on the road off a win by 6 or less. Notre Dame is just 16-31 ATS last 47 at home in the month of November and 4-13 ATS last 17 after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more at the half. Give me the Hokies +17.5.

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS KNOCKOUT (Michigan -21.5) 

I've really been impressed with how the Wolverines have looked the last two weeks. They didn't just beat Notre Dame last week, they absolutely destroyed them and they completely outplayed Penn State in the 2nd half the week before. 

A lot of people wrote this team off after that loss to Wisconsin and it was a mistake. Michigan is 4-1 ATS since that defeat and I just don't see Maryland being able to do enough offensively to keep this within the number. The Terps only had 128 total yards and were shutout at home by Penn State earlier this season. I don't know if Michigan shuts them out or puts 50+ on the scoreboard, but they should win here by 28 or more. Give me the Wolverines -21.5!  

40* 49ERS/CARDINALS TNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Cardinals +10.5)

After last week’s blowout win over the Panthers, I’m seeing quite a few people in the media lay claim to the 49ers as being the best team in the NFL. As much as the San Francisco players will say they aren’t listening to the hype, it’s almost impossible not to and this just has the feeling of a game they could come out flat and possibly get beat.

One thing you can count on is the Cardinals giving everything they have in this matchup. I think a lot of people are going to look at the lopsided loss to the Saints and just assume this team won’t be able to hand with the 49ers, but that was a 8-point game going into the 4th quarter. This team had won 3 straight prior to that loss and not many teams are going to play well in New Orleans with how loaded that team is.

I’m pretty confident we see a better showing at home and let’s not forget there is a pretty significant edge for home teams in these Thursday games because of the travel for the road team on just 3 days of rest.

The 49ers defense is outstanding, but at least the Cardinals have a mobile quarterback who can escape some of that pressure, which could lead to some big plays down the field.

Also, this 49ers offense is good but not great. They scored 51 last week against the Panthers, but only had 388 total yards. If Arizona can just take care of the football they will have an excellent shot here to cover the double-digit spread. Give me the Cardinals +10.5!

40* W VIRGINIA/BAYLOR ATS SLAUGHTER (Mountaineers +18.5) 

You just have to believe we are getting value with the Mountaineers in this one. With this one of just two college games on the board Thursday, it’s going to get a lot of action. No way the public will want anything to do with West Virginia given their last two games ending in lopsided losses and Baylor sitting there at 7-0 and ranked No. 12 in the country.

Note that while the Mountaineers lost 38-14 at home to ISU, that was 14-14 at the half. They also only trailed Oklahoma 28-14 at the half before getting outscored by 24 in the final two periods. They only lost by 11 at home to Texas, despite a -3 turnover differential (outgained Longhorns 463-427). This team has what it takes to compete with Baylor.

I also don’t love how Rhule’s team has responded coming off a bye. Last year their only bye came the week before they got annihilated by West Virginia. This year they had an early bye before going to Rice and wound up winning 21-13 as a 27-point favorite.

Baylor has also been a horrible bet under Rhule as a home favorite. They are a mere 2-7 ATS as a home favorite since Rhule came to the program. That includes a 33-30 win at home over Texas Tech as 10.5-point favorite this year.

Another thing you have to keep in mind with West Virginia is they have played a brutal schedule. Six of their first seven opponents have been against Power 5 teams, as they played both Missouri and NC State in non-conference. Mountaineers are giving up 33.4 ppg, but their opponents offensive average is 32.0. They are giving up 408 ypg, which is actually under their opponents average of 447. Baylor’s opponents averages are just 27 ppg and 358.6 ypg, so you can see how much easier their schedule has been. Give me West Virginia +18.5!

50* NFL PRIME TIME GAME OF THE YEAR (Packers -3.5) 

I believe the drop-off from Mahomes to backup Matt Moore is significant. Moore finished with 117 yards in relief of Mahomes against the Broncos, but it wasn’t pretty for the most part. Take out the 57-yard pass to Tyreek Hill and the offense did next to nothing with him under center.

The only other scoring drives under Moore was his first series when he took over with a 1st & Goal from the 3 and had to settle for a field goal. The other came on a field goal after Denver went for it and failed on 4th down.

Green Bay’s defense is better than they showed last week against the Raiders and I expect a max effort from them in a prime time game. I just don’t see the Chiefs’ offense being able to do enough to give them a shot at winning this game or keeping it close.

As for Kansas City’s defense, I’m not reading anything into that performance against the Broncos. I don’t know what Denver is doing with Joe Flacco at quarterback, but it looks like he doesn’t want to be there and that offensive line is trash.

Based off what we have seen from this defense prior that game, I would be absolutely shocked if the Packers didn’t march the ball up and down the field. Keep in mind with KC’s offense likely limited, they should be getting pretty good field position throughout. Give me the Packers -3.5! 

40* NFL (49ers -5.5)

I'll take my chances with the 49ers remaining undefeated and covering the 5.5-point spread at home against the Panthers. This San Francisco defense is the real deal. The 49ers are giving up just 10.7 ppg and holding teams almost 10 points under their season average. They are only giving up 90 yards/game rushing and have been absolutely dominant against the pass, as opposing QBs are completing just 55.2% for 135 ypg and 4.9 yards/attempt. 

Kyle Allen has been great in relief of Cam Newton, but he's faced a bunch of average to sub-par defenses so far. I look for the 49ers to bottle up McCaffrey and for the Panthers to struggle to keep pace offensively in this one. Give me the 49ers -5.5! 

40* NFL (Bears -3.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Chicago at home against the Chargers. I know we aren't at the halfway point yet, but this feels like a must-win for the Bears, who are trying to avoid a 3rd straight loss and falling below .500 on the season. With how well Green Bay and Minnesota are playing, Chicago can't afford to fall back any further in the NFC North. 

Chargers are the team they can get right against. LA continues to get all kinds of respect from the public and the books, despite the fact that they are 2-5 and have lost 5 of 6. Chargers offense has been pretty anemic this season and it's not going to get any better against an elite Chicago defense. Give me the Bears -3.5! 

40* NFL (Jets +7) 

I'll take my chances here with the Jets bouncing back from that ugly showing against the Patriots with an easy cover against the Jaguars. You just can't overreact to how a team plays New England, especially on just 3 days of rest, where I think Belichick's ability to gameplan gives the Pats a massive edge. 

Darnold couldn't have played worse against New England, but I expect him to have a much better day at the office against a banged up Jags defense that no longer has one of the best players in the NFL in Jalen Ramsey. Jacksonville is also a team I feel is way overvalued right now with all the hype around Minshew. Jags are just 3-4 with 3 wins against the Titans, Broncos and Bengals. Give me the Jets +7! 

50* NCAAF SHARP MONEY PLAY OF THE MONTH (Notre Dame PK) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Fighting Irish. For me it’s all about the spot and how difficult it will be for Michigan to pick themselves up after that loss to Penn State and how big an edge it is for Notre Dame coming off a bye.

I think there’s a lot here that will tempt people to take the Wolverines. Michigan dominated the box score on the road against Penn State last week and I think it surprised a lot of people with how well they played. They were a dropped TD pass from tying the game at 28-28 with less than 2 minutes to play.

That’s great, but I’m looking at it from a psychological perspective. I believe the Wolverines had to win that game to keep any hopes of winning the Big Ten and making the playoffs alive. Given how good Ohio State looks, Michigan has to feel like they got no shot with 2 conference losses.

For a team that came into the season thinking not just winning the Big Ten, but playing for a national championship, where does the motivation come from right now? I get it’s a home night game against a Top 10 opponent, but is playing spoiler going to do the trick.

All of this and I probably would have been on Notre Dame at this price had Michigan won last week. Love that the Irish are coming off a bye and they have to have this one. A win and the Irish are looking at 11-1 and will at worst be in the conversation for a playoff spot. A loss and they will join the Wolverines as a team searching for motivation down the stretch run. Give me Notre Dame +1!

40* NCAAF (Texas Tech -4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Red Raiders cashing in a win and cover as a small road favorite against the Jayhawks. I think this is the perfect spot to fade Kansas, coming off a gut-wrenching 50-48 loss at Texas. I think they are getting way too much credit for how close they played the Longhorns. Let's not overlook the fact Texas was coming off their biggest regular-season game against rival Oklahoma. Kansas' only win vs an FBS opponent is still BC. This team lost at home to West Virginia and Coastal Carolina. Re Raiders are going to show up coming off 2 straight losses. This is also a must-win for Texas Tech to have a legit shot at a bowl game. Give me the Red Raiders -4.5!

40* NCAAF (North Carolina -3) 

My favorite play last week was Virginia and it wasn't so much cause I love the Cavaliers. It was 100% a fade of Duke. I don't think this Blue Devils team is that great. I thought they had a very misleading 4-2 record going into that Virginia game and it showed. They lost 48-14 and 65 of their 250 total yards came in a meaningless TD drive in the final minutes down 48-7. UNC has been better than expected in the first year under Mack Brown and I think they will have no problem winning here by more than a field goal. Give me the Tar Heels -3! 

40* NCAAF (Stanford -1) 

I'll take my chances here with Stanford. It's looking likely that K.J. Costello will play for the Cardinal, as head coach David Shaw said he's in between the questionable to probable state for the game. Having him back makes this a different team. Also, I think Stanford can win here even if he doesn't play. Arizona is nothing special and their only road win was a 5-point victory against Colorado. Last week they lost by 27 at USC. 

Stanford is 17-7 ATS last 24 after a SU loss and 10-4 ATS last 14 after totaling 275 or less total yards. Arizona just 7-19 ATS last 26 on the road and a mere 3-8 ATS last 11 road games vs a team that doesn't have a winning home record. Wildcats also just 1-4-1 ATS last 6 off a loss by 20 or more. Give me the Cardinal -1! 

40* NCAAF (Penn State -5)

I'll take my chances here with Penn State laying the 5. I think enough is being made about how awful a spot this is for the Nittany Lions having just played two huge games against Iowa and Michigan and catching the Spartans off a bye. I just don't think it's going to matter. 

Michigan State's offense is anemic. Last time out they were shutout at Wisconsin and the week before scored just 10-points at Ohio State. They also had just 7 points in a home loss to Arizona State. Penn State's defense is the real deal and while they could struggle to put up a big number, they won't need to. 

I also think some of the letdown for the Nittany Lions will be negated by the fact that they have lost the last two in the series as big favorites. Give me Penn State -5! 

50* NCAAF POWER 5 PLAY OF THE YEAR (Wisconsin +15) 

I'll gladly back the Badgers getting two touchdowns against Ohio State. I think a lot of people would have been all over Wisconsin at this line had they not just lost as a massive favorite against Illinois. I also think we are starting to hear a lot about how much better the Buckeyes are than the rest of the Big Ten. 

I'm not saying the Badgers are going to beat Ohio State, but I do feel pretty confident they can cover the spread. Wisconsin has an elite run defense. They are allowing just 2.2 yards/carry, holding teams almost 2 yards under their season average. Ohio State has rushed for 225+ yards in every game. I'm banking on that streak ending and for the Badgers to be able have some success with Taylor on the ground. 

Home favorites who are undefeated and have beaten the spread by 35+ points in their last 3 games are a mere 15-43 (26%) ATS the last 5 seasons. Badgers are also 32-14 ATS last 46 vs teams who average 450+ yards/game and have held these teams to an average of 24.2 ppg. Give me Wisconsin +15! 

40* NCAAF (Northwestern +10) 

I’m shocked that Iowa is laying double-digits on the road with how bad that offense has looked the last week weeks. I get struggling to move the ball against the likes of Michigan and Penn State, who both have elite talent on the defensive line. To have to grind the way they did against Purdue’s defense is not good.

You hear a lot about Iowa’s offensive line and the two NFL prospects they got at the left and right tackle spots. The problem is the interior three are not good. They barely averaged more than 3 yards/carry against the Boilermakers and that’s after totalying 71 rushing yards in the previous two combined.

Northwestern is giving up 187 rushing yards/game, but only 4.4 yards/carry and the numbers are a bit skewed because of their tough schedule. They have already faced Stanford, Michigan State, Wisconsin Nebraska and Ohio State, with 3 of those on the road. Their only easy game was at home against UNLV.

They only gave up 17 to Stanford, 24 to Wisconsin and 13 to Nebraska. They allowed 31 to Michigan State, but a lot of that was due to turnovers. Spartans only had 337 total yards.

It’s also looking like Iowa will be without leading receiver Brandon Smith, who is their best weapon on the outside. Another big injury for the Hawkeyes is on the other side of the ball, where leading tackler Kristian Welch might have to miss another game.

Add in how well Pat Fitzgerald’s team has done against Kirk Ferentz of late with 3 straight wins, two of those at Iowa, I don’t know how you don’t take Northwestern. Give me the Wildcats +10!

50* PATRIOTS/JETS MNF VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Patriots -9) 

I'm rolling the dice with the Patriots. I think the big number and some injuries to the Patriots receiving corps has people thinking about taking the Jets, especially after New York just upset Dallas as a 7-point home dog last week. 

I just feel the combination of MNF and people talking about how the Jets can win this game will have NE 100% locked in. I get the Pats are thin at receiver, but it doesn't matter with Tom Brady. If any team is dealing with injuries that should concern you, it's New York. Jets got 4 of their 5 starting linemen either out or question, as well as backup Kelechi Osemele. Same thing on the defensive line, where two more starters are questionable or out. They also got a ton of injuries at linebacker. 

Patriots have gone 7-3-1 ATS last 11 on Monday Night Football are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 vs a team with a losing record and a ridiculous 40-15-2 in the month of October. Give me New England -9! 

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SHOCKER (Titans -2) 

I'll take my chances here with the Titans as a small home favorite against the Chargers. I love that Tennessee is making the switch from Mariota to Tannehill. I think that brings life to an offense that desperately needed a spark. I also have not been impressed with this Chargers defense of late and I don't think it's any better here with the guys they are missing up front on the defensive line. Titans on the other hand are making a huge addition to their rotation up front, as rookie DT Jeffery Simmons has been cleared to play. Tennessee drafted him No. 19, but had he not been coming off a ACL injury he would have been Top 10 and maybe Top 5. GIVE ME THE TITANS -2! 

50* NCAAF PRIME TIME PLAY OF THE MONTH (Georgia -24.5) 

I'll gladly take Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs to lay it on Kentucky this Saturday. I was on the Gamecocks last week at +25 in the upset win at Georgia. It was a perfect storm for South Carolina with them coming off a buy and probably catching the Bulldogs by surprise. 

It happens, but lucky for Georgia their season isn't dead. If they win out they are in the playoffs. They don't turn it over 4 times they beat SC and I think this line is 30+. They outgained the Gamecocks 468 to 297. Kentucky is not good. They barely beat a bad Arkansas team at home. 

Kentucky has no passing game after losing Terry Wilson. That's a problem against a pissed off Georgia defense that is phenominal against the run. Bulldogs are giving up just 2.7 yards/carry and holding teams almost 1.5 yards under their average/carry. This has blowout written all over it. Give me Georgia -24.5! 

40* NCAAF (Oklahoma State)

This is easy. You have No. 18 Baylor sitting at 6-0 and getting not just a field goal but the hook as well against an unranked opponent. Whenever you see a ranked team as a dog against an unranked team, it's play the favorite or pass. I'm playing the Cowboys here. Bears are good, but this is a quality Oklahoma State team that really plays well at home, especially in big games. I also love that they had a bye to really get things right after that upset loss at Texas Tech. Give me Oklahoma State -3.5! 

40* NCAAF (SMU -7.5)

I'll take my chances here with SMU winning here by double-digits. Books are begging you to take Temple here with this on the other side of 7. Owls are 5-1 and just won at home against Memphis. I just don't think Temple is that good. They had a nice win at Maryland early, but the Terps were not what we thought. They lost by 16 at Buffalo, where outgained by an awful Georgia Tech team and only won by 10 at a bad ECU team. SMU is off a bye and this Mustangs team is the real deal. I don't think it will be close for long on Saturday. Give me SMU -7.5! 

50* NCAAF ACC GAME OF THE MONTH (Virginia -3) 

I think this is the perfect time to buy low on the Cavaliers and sell high on the Blue Devils. I definitely feel like the number here is way too low given how I rank these two teams.I get that Duke is 4-2 and tied for the ACC Coastal lead, but I'm not really sure what they have done to make people think they are legit.

They have wins over North Carolina A&T, Middle Tennessee, Va Tech and Georgia Tech. You can't read anything into a FCS win, Middle Tennessee is not any good, Va Tech was a complete disaster before they made a QB change and Georgia Tech is by far the worst team in the ACC and maybe the worst Power 5 team in the country.They got annihilated by Alabama, which was to be expected, but they also were outgained 512 to 204. As for the 33-30 loss at home to Pitt, that doesn't look all that bad, but they trailed 26-3 in the 2nd half of that one.Virginia went on the road and beat that same Panthers team 30-14 and also have a nice win at home over Florida State.

Losing to Notre Dame by 15 and not covering is misleading, as they really beat themselves with 5 turnovers. They actually outgained the Irish 338 to 322 and led 17-14 at the half. As for the loss last week to Miami, they were without a doubt the better team, but you get that crazy stuff in weekday games where the better team doesn't always win.

I look back at how much this Blue Devils offense struggled to move the ball against Alabama and I just can't see how they are going to do enough offensively in this game to keep it close. Duke's only game against a FBS opponent with more than 188 yards passing was vs Middle Tennessee and they only had 237 in that one. 

That's a serious problem because Virginia ranks 11th in the country against the run, giving up just 90 yards/game (2.7 yards/carry).Lastly, you got to factor in the history of this series. Virginia has won and covered 4 straight. All 4 wins have come by at least 7 points. I get the Blue Devils are good as a dog, but I don't see much bit in the Blue Devils Saturday. Give me Virginia -3!

50* NCAAF BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR (Indiana -5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Hoosiers laying less than a touchdown against the Terps. It doesn't look right to see Indiana laying points on the road, but I don't see them having any problem winning this game. I don't think people quite realize how good this team is. A big reason for that is a 51-10 loss at home to Ohio State. Their only other loss is to Michigan State on the road, where they had a 24-21 lead in the 4th and were tied 31-31 with 2 minutes to go. They lost by 9, but only because Mich St returned a fumble on the final play. 

Maryland is down their No. 1 quarterback in Josh Jackson, No. 2 wide out Darryl Jones, two linemen and will likely not have starting running back Anthony McFarland. They just got annihilated 40-14 to a banged up Purdue team that looked awful the week before at Penn State and lost at home to TCU and Minnesota. Give me Indiana -5! 

40* NCAAF (Miami -18) 

I'll take my chances here with Miami winning by 20+ against Georgia Tech. Even though the Hurricanes are off a 17-9 upset win at home against a ranked Virginia team, the perception was that they didn't deserve to win. It was more about how the Cavaliers blew it. I think that's kept the hype off Miami and provided us with a ton of value. Yellow Jackets are bad man. Yes, they outgained Duke 379 to 373. Who cares. They were down 38-7 and did next to nothing offensively until the Blue Devils were up 31. Duke won by 18 scoring just 3 points in the final 33 minutes. Miami's feeling good right now and they are not out of the wide-open ACC Coastal. Give me Miami -18! 

40* NCAAF (Iowa -17.5) 

If you bet Iowa the last two weeks and a lot of people probably did, you probably can't even stomach thinking about backing the Hawks laying 17.5 at home to a Purdue team that just beat Maryland 40-14 at home. The Terps are banged up and a lot worse than people think, so let's not overreact to that win. Iowa's offense couldn't do anything against two elite defensive fronts in Michigan and Penn State. They will have no problem moving the ball against Purdue. The Hawkeyes defense hasn't given up more than 17 points in any games. I think Iowa looked similarly talented to Penn State and the Nittany Lions were a 28.5-point home favorite against Purdue. They won 35-7 and outgained the Boilermakers 460 to 104. Give me the Hawks -17.5! 

50* NCAAF C-USA PLAY OF THE MONTH (FAU -4.5) 

Books have repeatedly overvalued Marshall this season. The Thundering Herd are just 1-5 ATS and have failed to cover 4 straight.

Revenge is always a huge motivator in college football and the fact that the Thundering Herd embarrassed FAU in last year’s meeting only makes me like the Owls that much more. I also think FAU has a big edge here with playing at home on a short week of rest.

The other big thing for me when handicapping this matchup is quarterback play. FAU’s Chris Robinson is completing 64% of his attempts with a 13-2 TD-INT ratio. Marshall’s Isaiah Green is only completing 57.2% of his attempts with a 8-5 TD-INT ratio.

Another thing with Green is that he’s got a 1-4 TD-INT ratio in Marshall’s two true road games. Green’s inability to protect the football away from home is an even bigger concern when you factor in how good FAU’s defense has been at creating turnovers. The Owls have 11 takeaways during their 4-game winning streak.

FAU is also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing less than 20 points last time out. Marshall is just 1-8 ATS last 9 after allowing less than 20 points and 1-5 ATS lat 6 off a win. Give me the Owls -4.5!

50* S ALABAMA/TROY TUESDAY NIGHT ATS NO-BRAINER (S Alabama +16) 

Even though Troy has a losing record at 2-3 and been a terrible bet this season (1-4 ATS), they are the much more familiar team to the public. Just last year the Trojans won 10-games and have upset the likes of Nebraska and LSU the past two seasons.

South Alabama on the other hand is a team the public wants nothing to do with. The Jaguars are sitting at 1-5 with their only win against a FCS opponent. This is after they went just 3-9 last year and 4-8 in 2017. I got a hard time not thinking this line isn’t inflated in favor of Troy.

It’s not like the Jaguars haven’t been playing well. They only lost 13 at ULM (trailed by just 7 going in the 4th quarter) and should have won outright as a double-digit dog last time out against Georgia Southern.

The big concern with South Alabama is definitely the lack of offensive fire-power. Jaguars haven’t scored more than 21 against a FBS opponent this season. With that said, Troy’s defense has not been good. The Trojans have allowed 40+ on 3 separate occasions. They are horrible against the pass, allowing 10.2 yards/pass attempt. They are also giving up 6.3 yards/play.

You also can’t ignore the history of the series. Road team has won outright each of the last four and South Alabama is 3-1 ATS during this stretch. This is not the same Troy team as years past. Give me the Jaguars +16!

50* NFL GB vs DET MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL TOP PLAY (Lions +4) 

I'll take my chances here with Detroit cashing in as a 4-point dog. Lions aren't getting enough love here coming off their bye week. Detroit has had Green Bay's number of late. Packers offense has not been very good and will be without star wide out Devante Adams. Green Bay's defense has been solid, but they have struggled against teams with decent quarterbacks. They gave over 440 yards passing last week to Dallas. I like Patricia and the Lions to win this outright. Give me Detroit +4! 

40* NFL VEGAS ODDSMAKERS LINE MISTAKE (Redskins -3) 

I'll take my chances with the Redskins and any other team that lines up against the Dolphins until Miami shows us they actually can be competitive. It's not just that the Dolphins are tanking, they don't have the talent to compete. I just look at how bad the Chargers are playing right now and they were able to beat the Dolphins on the road by 20. 

I think because Miami is off a bye and the Redskins sitting at 0-5 and having just fired their head coach, we are getting value. Likely the last time that happens if Miami gets destroyed here. I think they will. Redskins have had two division road games and 3 home games against the likes of the Cowboys, Bears and Patriots. They aren't a good team, but are way more talented than Miami. Also, huge that Redskins are not going to Haskins and sticking with Keenum. Expect a big effort from Washington after seeing their head coach get fired. Give me the Redskins -3! 

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Jaguars -1.5) 

I think this is the ideal time to fade New Orleans, who come in having won and covered all 3 games with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterbacks. Sharp money appears to agree, as the line has moved in favor of the Jaguars, despite around 65% of the public action being on New Orleans.

I’m seeing a lot of Bridgewater praise after his big game against Tampa Bay, throwing for 314 yards and 4 scores. The thing with that, is the Buccaneers are dead last in the NFL, giving up 323.6 ypg. Quite a bit worse than 31st place Dolphins at 296.3 ypg.

In his previous two starts he had just 177 yards against the Seahawks and 193 against the Cowboys. He also had just 165 yards on 30 attempts in relief of Brees against the Rams. With or without Jalen Ramsey, this is a really good Jaguars defense. I think it’s going to be really hard for New Orleans to get that offense going.

I know the Saints defense has been unbelievable since Brees went down, but Jacksonville is not an easy place to play this time a year. With the temperatures expected in the mid 80’s, I think we see New Orleans give up a few more big plays than we have seen the last few weeks.

You have to love what Minshew has done in relief of Nick Foles and more than anything the Jaguar’s fans are 100% on board with him and this team right now. I think the fans show up in a big way for this one and this is a game Jacksonville desperately needs to win. Big difference between 3-3 and 2-4. Give me the Jaguars -1.5!

50* TEXANS/CHIEFS AFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Chiefs -4) 

I think we are seeing a big overreaction here with last week’s loss at home to the Colts. If LeSean McCoy doesn’t fumble that ball deep in Indy territory midway through the 2nd quarter, KC was prime to take a 7-point lead and it would have been a lot different game with the Colts playing from behind.

I would have loved to see the Chiefs run the table, but I believe losing a game like that will work in their favor. Great teams and great players respond to adversity in a big way and I think we see a much more focused Kansas City team on Sunday.

I know there’s a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball for the Chiefs, but as long as No. 15 is behind center, it really doesn’t matter who is lined up around him. He’s going to make plays. There’s a good chance he gets back arguably the best weapon in the league outside of maybe Christian McCaffrey in wide out Tyreek Hill.

Also, one of the reasons the Colts had so much success against the Chiefs is their ability to play man defense. I don’t think the Texans pose near the threat on the defensive side of the ball. Back with Alex Smith, Reid’s offense always seemed to give Houston problems. Considering they went 22 straight games scoring at least 26 before the 13-point effort against the Colts, I’m confident they put up a big number in this one.

As for the defense and how will KC be able to stop Deshaun Watson and the Texans offense, I think they will look a lot better than they did against the Colts. Keep in mind Indy has a really good offensive line and was able to just run the ball at will. Texans aren’t near as good up front on the 0-line.

Another thing. Everyone is singing the praises of the Texans after their 21-point win over the Falcons, but keep in mind Atlanta actually had a 17-16 lead at the half and it was a 8-point game with less than 2 minutes to play.

Houston did finish with a 592 to 373 edge in total yards, but are 0-6 ATS under head coach Bill O’Brien after outgaining their previous opponent by 150 or more yards. Texans are also 0-7 ATS under O’Brien in games vs teams who average 29 or more points/game. Chiefs are 9-3 ATS last 12 after scoring 15 or fewer points and 10-4 ATS last 14 as a home favorite of 7-points or less. Give me KC -4!

50* NFL NON-CONF PLAY OF THE MONTH (Browns +1.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Cleveland as a home dog against the Seahawks. For starters, you got Seattle going west to east for an early start time, which is never easy. Seattle already did that once in Week 2 at Pittsburgh and were fortunate to beat the Steelers 28-26 and they didn't have Big Ben. 

I also feel the Seahawks are overvalued coming off that 30-29 win at home against the Rams. They won that on a late TD after trailing the entire most of the 2nd half. They also had an ugly 21-20 win at home against the Bengals in Week 1 and lost at home to the Saints minus Drew Brees. 

I know Cleveland just got embarrassed by the 49ers, but because that was on MNF they are even more undervalued. With Seattle likely down two offensive linemen and the Browns having a strong defensive front, I think it's going to be really hard for Russell Wilson and that Seahawks offense to move the ball. 

At 2-3 and a road game at New England on deck, we know we are getting the best from Cleveland on Sunday. Give me the Browns +1.5! 

40* NCAAF (Iowa +3.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Hawkeyes covering the 3.5 point spread at home against the Nittany Lions. I get the line here with Penn State undefeated and Iowa off an ugly loss at Michigan, but I just think this Hawkeyes team should not be a dog in this fight. Penn State has looked impressive, but they haven't played anyone close to as good as Iowa. 

You also have to factor in the magic that's taken place at Kinnick in these prime time night games. It's going to be electric in Iowa City and I think a young Nittany Lions team will be a bit overwhelmed with the atmosphere. Keep in mind their only road game all season was at Maryland, which is not exactly a tough place to play. Give me Iowa +3.5! 

40* NCAAF (Louisville +7) 

I'll take my chances here with Louisville +7. I want to point out that Wake Forest OVER 6 wins was one of my favorite win total plays of 2019. I just think now that they are 5-0 and ranked No. 19, they are getting way too much respect against a decent Louisville team. 

I get the rankings are often based off a team's record, but it's not like the Demon Deacons have played the stiffest of competition. They needed a last second TD to beat Utah State at home 38-35. They only won by 6 at home against UNC and squeaked by with 3-point win at BC. 

Louisville's only two losses are against Notre Dame and on the road at Florida State. There's a lot more talent on this roster than people realize. They just remember how bad this team was late last year when everyone quit on Bobby Petrino. They got a legit head coach now in Scott Satterfield and I think this is a game they could easily win outright. Give me Louisville +7! 

50* USC/ND NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (USC +11) 

I'm surprised we aren't hearing more about USC as a legit threat to upset Notre Dame on the road this weekend. People just don't want to give the Trojans any love and that's a big reason why I like them.

Nore Dame is a quality team with a good QB in Ian Book, but I don't think this year's squad is playoff material. Sure they played Georgia tough on the road, but they were down 23-10 with less than 5 minutes to play. Georgia also hasn't looked as good as they have the past two years. 

USC has the good on offense, especially at wide receiver to move the ball against this Irish defense and the defense has been better. You also got the Trojans playing on two weeks of rest, while Notre Dame is not and the Irish have a big road game at Michigan next week. Give me USC +11! 

50* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE MONTH (Kentucky -6.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Kentucky laying less than a touchdown at home against the Razorbacks. I just think we are getting a very favorable line here with the Wildcats due to them coming in having lost 3 straight. 

This is not as talented a Kentucky team as last year, but it's definitely good enough to win at home in a prime time night game against a bad team like Arkansas. Keep in mind the Wildcats are coming off a bye, so they are going to be 100% locked in. The Razorbacks lost at home to San Jose State and by 14 on the road against Ole Miss. Give me Kentucky -6.5! 

40* NCAAF (Iowa State -10) 

I'll take my chances here with the Cyclones laying it on the Mountaineers. Iwas on ISU in the win and cover against ULM, I faded them in their loss at Baylor and backed them as a small home favorite in a blowout win over TCU. I like them to cruise in this one. 

West Virginia just played their hearts out at home against Texas and were down just 4-points going into the 4th quarter. They have to be thinking if they don't turn it over 4 times they win that game. Tough one to bounce back from. 

As for ISU they got no room for error after losing that game at Baylor, so we can expect a max effort. The Cyclones could easily be 5-0 and ranked inside the Top 15, as they blew both losses to Iowa and Baylor. Last year ISU beat West Virginia 30-14 and it should have been worse, as they outgained them 498 to 152. Give me the Cyclones -10! 

40* NCAAF (Baylor -10.5) 

It's about time the Bears got the respect they deserve. Baylor is 5-0 and finally ranked in the Top 25. You got to be impressed with how this team went on the road and whooped K-State 31-12 last week. The thing is, the public is all over Texas Tech here after their big upset win at home against Oklahoma State. 

Big reason the Red Raiders were able to have success in that game is the Cowboys turned it over 5 time sand don't have the best defense. People think of Baylor as this fast-paced offensive taem that is okay defensively. Bears are a lot better than okay on defense under Matt Rhule. They are holding teams to 3.1 yards/cary and 5.9 yards/completion. 

In the Red Raiders two road games they have lost by 14 to Arizona and by 39 at Oklahoma. No reason not to think Baylor doesn't win here by at least 14. Give me the Bears -10.5! 

40* NCAAF (Texas A&M +17.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Texas A&M covering the 17.5 at home against the Crimson Tide. Few are giving the Aggies any shot in this game, but this the last team you want to count out at home. 

This is the game the Aggies have had circled all year. Jimbo Fisher is looking to be the first former Saban assistant to beat him. I don't know that they will, but I think they got the goods to at least keep it within the number. 

Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that have gained 475 or more total yards in 3 straight games and are outgaining teams on the seaon by 125+ yards/game are a mere 11-33 (25%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Give me the Aggies +17.5! 

40* NCAAF (Washington St +1.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Cougars as a small road dog against the Sun Devils. I believe the books are telling you exactly who they think is going to win this game by making No. 18 ranked Arizona State a mere 1.5-point home favorite against a Washington State team that has lost two straight and is off an ugly 38-13 loss at Utah. 

Arizona State has two impressive road wins over Michigan State and Cal. Two horrible offensive teams. Washington State can light up the scoreboard with that passing attack and the Sun Devils defense is much better at stopping the run than the pass. 

Road teams that are winning 51% to 60% of their games and off a loss by 21 or more to a conference opponent are 63-29 (69%) ATS since 1992. Give me Washington State +1.5! 

50* NCAAF UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE MONTH (Michigan St +10.5)

I love the Spartans as a double-digit road dog against the Badgers. Not only is Michigan State good enough to cover, but they can win this game outright. People have fallen in love with Wisconsin because of a blowout win against Michigan. It was impressive at the time, but the Wolverines look worse and worse each week. 

I get the Spartans just gave up 323 rushing yards to Ohio State, but the Buckeyes have a very mobile QB and are one of the best teams in the country. Even after that performance they are only giving up 3 yards/carry. That tells you how good they are on that side of the ball. Wisconsin had their hands full against a good Northwestern defense and without Jonathan Taylor going wild there's a lot to be scared of with the Wisconsin offense (3 straight games with less than 135 yards passing). Give me the Spartans +10.5! 

40* NCAAF (South Carolina +25) 

Gamecocks will be returning from their bye week looking to build on an impressive 24-7 win and cover at home against Kentucky as a mere 3-point favorite. South Carolina has  covered 3 of 4 since that upset loss as a double-digit favorite to North Carolina in the opener. The only non-cover came in a 20-point loss at Missouri as a 9.5-point dog and the Tigers had two non-offensive touchdowns in that win.

No question the books have inflated this number with Georgia being ranked No. 3 in the country and having just covered as a 24-point favorite at Tennessee. I just haven’t been as impressed as I thought I would be with the Bulldogs so far. The win over Notre Dame looks good at the moment, as the Irish are 4-1, but I could see them losing at least a couple more games.They are 2-0 in the SEC but have played the two worst teams in Vanderbilt and Tennessee. They were only up 21-6 on the Commodores at the half and trailed the Vols in the 2nd quarter.

I actually think with the Gamecocks coming off a bye and having two weeks to prepare, they could possibly give the Bulldogs a serious scare in this game. Georgia is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after covering a spread and the Gamecocks are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Give me South Carolina +25!

50* VIRGINIA/MIAMI FRIDAY NIGHT SHARP TOP PLAY (Miami -2) 

I'll take my chances here with Miami as a small home favorite. Unranked teams who are favored against a team ranked in the Top 25 have had an alarming amount of success against the spread. Anytime the books set a line like this that they know the public can't resist, especially in a weekday night game when it's going to be one of the biggest bet games, you just have to go against the public. I think Miami got a wake-up call in last week's loss to Va Tech. Manny Diaz is taking over more of the defense this week and Virginia's offense is limited. I think turnovers will be huge and I think Perry surprises some people. Give me the Hurricanes -2! 

40* NCAAF SYRACUSE/NC STATE ATS KNOCKOUT (NC State -4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with NC State laying less than a touchdown at home against the Orange. Syracuse has won their last two and are off a bye, but this is still the same team that lost 63-20 at Maryland. I like the QB change that NC State is going with in this one. Bailey Hockman should have a field day against this Orange secondary. Syracuse gave up 296 in the air to Maryland, 391 to Clemson and 356 to Western Michigan. Wolfpack's only two losses have come on the road against Power 5 opponents. They too are off a bye and while they lost 31-13 last time out at FSU, they actually outgained the Seminoles 370 to 369. I think the Wolfpack win and win big. Give me NC State -4.5! 

50* BROWNS/49ers MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (49ers -4.5) 

I'll take my chances here with San Francisco at home against the Browns on Monday Night Football. I'm just not buying too much into Cleveland's 40-25 win at Baltimore last week. That Ravens defense is not as good as people think. I think the key to the Browns offense going off in that game against Baltimore was due to their ability to get the running game going. I don't think they will be able to have the same kind of success on the ground against a really good 49ers front. SF is giving up just 75 ypg and 3.4 yards/carry against the run. 49ers offense still put up 24 points despite 5 turnovers against the Steelers. Not to mention SF is coming off a bye, which is a huge advantage to them. Give me the 49ers -4.5! 

40* NFL (Ravens -3) 

I just think Pittsburgh is getting a little too much respect here. I know they are at home, but without Big Ben given all that they lost offensively with AB and Bell, this is a 8-8 type a team. Baltimore got a humbling loss last week against the Browns and I think some of that was them suffering a bit of a letdown off that loss to the Chiefs. I just think Lamar Jackson and that offense will be too much for the Steelers to handle in this one. Give me Pittsburgh -3. 

40* NFL (Vikings -5) 

I get the excitement around the Giants with them winning each of Jones’ first two starts, but let’s not overreact to a couple of wins of the Bucs and Redskins. Tampa doesn’t lay an egg in the second half they lose that game by double-digits. Last week they were basically gift-wrapped a win with Washington going to Dwayne Haskins (9 of 17 for 107 yards with 3 interceptions).

Those are also two sub-par defensive teams. Bucs rank 20th in total defense and Redskins rank 28th. Tampa is also 30th in points allowed and Washington is 31st. Minnesota ranks both 6th in total offense and total defense.

I know Cousins has not looked great early on in 2019, but I’m a lot more confident with the Vikings offense being able to sustain drives than I am with Jones and the Giants offense.

Don’t be fooled by the fact that New York only gave up 3-points last week to the Redskins. Washington ranks in the bottom 5 in both total offense and scoring offense. It was pretty evident to why Haskins had not played up until last week, the guy isn’t ready and honestly might never be. That same Giants defense let Jameis Winston throw for 380 yards and 3 scores the week before and allowed 405 yards and 4 scores to Dak Prescott earlier in the year.

The other thing is the Giants are just middle of the pack in terms of stopping the run and the Vikings come in with the 3rd ranked rushing offense at 155 yards/game (5.2 yards/carry). Also, New York just lost starting middle linebacker Ryan Connelly to a season-ending injury. Fellow inside linebackers Tae Davis and Alec Ogletree are both questionable to play, as is starting strong-side backer Lorenzo Carter. Give me the Vikings -5.

40* NFL (Bucs +3.5) 

I really like what I've seen out of the Bucs early on. This is a different team with Bruce Arians and I just think people are a little slow to buy into them because of Jameis Winston. Tampa has just 2 turnovers in their last 3 games. They went into LA and laid it on the Rams last week. I know the Saints are off an impressive win at home over Dallas, but I think some of that was the Cowboys not being as good as we thought given their easy schedule and the boost they got from it being a prime time game. I just don't know how you trust the Saints with how much the offense has struggled to score with Teddy Bridgewater behind center. Give me Tampa Bay +3.5! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Titans -2)

These are two very similar teams, in terms of both want to grind out wins behind a strong running game and defense. I would much rather take the home team in a matchup like this. I just don’t trust bad offenses on the road, especially against a good defense.

On top of that, we don’t even know if the Bills will have their starting quarterback for this game. Allen is questionable with a concussion and if he can’t go Matt Barkley would be the starter. Even if Allen plays I think Buffalo’s offense struggles, but I give the Bills no shot without him.

I also feel like this is the ideal spot to fade Buffalo. I think the Bills gained a lot of respect from the public in their loss to New England and rightfully so, but what people are overlooking is how difficult it can be for a team like Buffalo that relies so much on effort and energy to bounce back from a game like that. New England is the one team they want to beat going into the year and they have to feel like they gave the game away. Bills had 4 turnovers and had a punt blocked for a score. You outgain a team 375 to 224 and have 23 to 11 edge in first downs, you should win the game.

Another thing is that while Buffalo is a great defensive team, their strength is stopping the pass. They were No. 1 against the pass last year and are currently No. 4. The run defense is solid, but they are allowing 4.1 yards/carry on the season and giving up 4.8 yards/carry on the road. Titans clearly want to establish the run with Derrick Henry. Give me the Titans -2!

50* NCAAF PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH (UCLA -5.5) 

Love UCLA laying less than a touchdown at home. I know there's a chance Dorian Thompson-Robinson doesn't play, but they are going up against a bad Oregon State defense. Beavers are allowing 428 ypg and 6.1 yards/play in 2019. Also, I think the UCLA offense is way better than people realize. The numbers are simply skewed because of a brutal schedule. They have played Cincinnati, San Diego St, Oklahoma, Washington State and Arizona. Three of those on the road with Oklahoma one of the two home games. Oregon State nearly upset STanford but lost in a gut-wrencher 31-28. Beavers are 0-1 on the road this year (lost at Hawaii) and are now 1-23 away from home since 2015. Give me UCLA -5.5! 

40* NCAAF (Pittsburgh +5) 

I think this is the ideal spot to fade Duke. People are falling in love with the Blue Devils because they destroyed Va Tech on the road. There's some serious problems with that Hokies team. Their only other wins are against N Carolina A&T and Middle Tennessee. They lost by 39 to Alabama and the Crimson Tide didn't play great. Keep in mind Duke was picked to finish in the bottom half of the Coastal. I just think the Blue Devils are a bit of fools gold right now. Pitt on the other hand, we know they are legit. I know they barely scarped by 17-14 at home against Delaware last week, but they actually makes me like them more in this spot. I think they win outright. Give me the Panthers +5! 

40* NCAAF (Oregon -17.5) 

This is one of those high-profile games where the number is drawing a lot of attention to the underdog. I think people see Cal with road wins over Washington and Ole Miss and think they can keep this within 17.5. Maybe if it was in Berkley. When Oregon is good, they are really tough to play against at home, especially in night games. I think they got a QB in Herbert that can dissect a good Golden Bears defense and if they get up early at all this will spiral out of control. Oregon needs to not just win, but win big in Pac-12 play if they want to get back in the playoff picture. They won't let off the gas. Give me the Ducks -17.5! 

40* NCAAF (Tulsa +13) 

It's been quite a start to 2019 for SMU, who is now ranked No. 24 to go along with being 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS. I just don't know that's warranted. They got a few wins against teams that I think we expected to be good but aren't (S Florida, North Texas). They also have that big road win over TCU, but that result didn't surprise me. I don't think the Horned Frogs are all that great this year. It can be tough for teams to handle the spotlight that comes with being in the Top 25. Tulsa is also no pushover. They have played Michigan State tough on the road and Oklahoma State tough at home. They got a defense that is a lot better than people realize. I think they give the Mustangs all they can handle. Give me Tulsa +13! 

40* NCAAF (Michigan State +21) 

I just got a gut feeling that now is the time to fade Ohio State. A lot of people, including myself, got burned backing Nebraska last week as a 17.5-point home dog to the Buckeyes. Will be hard for a lot of people to back a Michigan State team to keep this within 21. I get it, but I think this is the role that Sparty thrives in. Ohio State isn't going to be perfect every single time out. They are due for a let down. I know the offense isn't great for Michigan State, but the defense is lights out and I think they do enough on that side to keep this within the number. Give me the Spartans +21! 

40* NCAAF (Colorado -4)

Really like the Buffaloes to cover the 4-point spread at home against Arizona. Not only do I think Colorado is the better team, but the Wildcats could be without starting QB Khalil Tate and if he does play I don't expect him to impact the game like he has. Last year he got banged up and just simply didn't run at all. They also might be without running back J.J. Taylor. Wildcat are 3-1 and riding a 3-game win streak, but all were at home. Arizona is just 1-6 ATS last 7 on the road vs a team with a winning (.500 or better) home record. Also just 7-19 ATS last 26 road games overall. Give me the Buffaloes -4! 

50* NCAAF BIG TEN PLAY OF THE MONTH (Nebraska -7) 

This is an easy play for me on the Cornhuskers. I get Nebraska couldn't have looked much worse than they did at home against Ohio State. Clearly the Cornhuskers aren't at the level they want to be at under head coach Scott Frost. What people need to realize is Ohio State is really good. If this was later in the year and Nebraska was like 7-1 and lost this game I could see them not showing up the next week, but they still got a lot to play for at 3-2 and 1-1 in the Big Ten. Their goal has to be winning the west and getting another crack at the Buckeyes. Northwestern's offense is atrocious and the defense can only carry you so far. Not to mention a letdown for the Wildcats off a closer than expected loss to Wisconsin. Give me Nebraska -7! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (K-State -1)

I’ve really been impressed with what I’ve seen out of this K-State team under new head coach Chris Klieman. For those that don’t know, Klieman won 4 national championships in 5 seasons at the FCS level with North Dakota State.

There’s no denying that the Wildcats got outplayed by Oklahoma State, but winning on the road in Stillwater is not easy, especially in a night game. Cowboys were also playing inspired off a loss to Texas. I think we are going to see that script reversed this week with K-State feeding off the home crowd in a game we know we are getting their best after that ugly loss.

Another thing is the Wildcats defense simply had no answer for the Cowboys Chuba Hubbard, who had 296 yards on just 25 attempts. Hubbard leads the country with 938 yards (next best is J.K. Dobbins at 654). Baylor doesn’t have that kind of talent at running back.

The Bears come in averaging a healthy 216 rushing yards/game, but most of that came against Stephen F Austin and UTSA. They had just 124 rushing yards on 35 attempts against Rice and 104 yards in 34 attempts against ISU.

Charlie Brewer has been solid for the Bears, but K-State’s pass defense ranks 2nd in the country giving up just 127.3 ypg.

This is also the first real road test for Baylor. Their only other road game was at Rice and while they pulled off the dogs after getting up 21-0, they also only beat the Owls by a final score of 21-13. I just think the Bears are getting a little too much respect in this one. Give me the Wildcats -1.

50* NCAAF BIG 12 GAME OF THE YEAR (Iowa State -3) 

I think the books have made a huge mistake here only making Iowa State -3 at home against the likes of TCU. This line says that it would be a pick'em on a neutral field. Maybe even have TCU favored. Not buying that for a second. Cyclones are better on both sides of the ball. Usually you give TCU the head coaching edge with Gary Patterson, but I would rather have Matt Campbell as my head coach if I was starting a program today. If it comes down to QB play the Cyclones have a clear edge with Brock Purdy, who is one of the best kept secrets in the country. I just don't see Iowa State losing this at home and going to 0-2 in Big 12 play. Give me the Cyclones -3! 

40* NCAAF (Louisville -5.5) 

I think Louisville is in a lot better shape than people realize. Most just wrote off the Cardinals this year because they were coming off an ugly 2-10 campaign (really weren't competitive in a lot of games) and going to be in the first year of a new head coach. I think a lot of last year's struggles was the team quitting on head coach Bobby Petrino. I thought they looked like a completely different team in their opener against Notre Dame and again in a 24-35 loss at Florida State (led 24-21 in the 4th). I think they are going to be desperate for a win coming out of their bye. They are every bit as good offensively as BC, but are much better defensively and will have the home crowd to give them energy. Give me the Cardinals -5.5! 

40* NCAAF (Utah State +28) 

I think it's worth a shot to play Utah State as a 4-touchdown dog against the Tigers. I know the Tigers have whooped up on some bad teams the last couple of weeks and have covered some big spreads. I just think this is one of those spots where the Ed Orgeron fire isn't there. They are sitting at No. 5 and couldn't have looked better going into their bye. They know they are better than Utah State and have a huge home game against Florida (homecoming) on deck. Utah State has a really good quarterback in Jordan Love, who I think will be able to make some plays and keep this within the number. LSU defense hasn't exactly been great, giving up 38 at Texas and 38 to Vanderbilt. Give me the Aggies +28! 

40* UCF/CINCINNATI ATS MONEY-MAKER (Cincinnati +4.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Bearcats as a home dog against the Knights. UCF is a good team, but I think they are a bit overrated right now. We just saw them lose on the road to Pitt a couple weeks ago and their best win of 2019 is a 45-27 victory against a struggling Stanford team. 

Bearcats only loss of 2019 is a 42-0 whooping on the road to Ohio State. After watching what the Buckeyes just did to Nebraska, that don't look all that bad. They absolutely dominated a good Marshall team last week 52-14 on the road. This is an outstanding defensive team under Luke Fickell. I think being Physical is the way to beat this UCF team, so it's a great matchup. Add in the atmosphere of a home game at Nippert Stadium in this kind of spot. Give me the Bearcats +4.5! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Temple -11) 

I get East Carolina has a winning record at 3-2 and are off an upset win at Old Dominion, but I still think they are really bad. Two of their three wins were against Gardner Webb and William & Mary.

I also think we can learn a lot from their two losses. They got annihilated by NC STate 34-6 in the season opener. They were outgained in that game 505 to 269. Since we have seen the Wolfpack lose 44-27 at West Virginia and 31-13 at FSU. Losing at Florida State by only 18 isn’t horrible, but only scoring 13-points against that Seminoles D is. They also got destroyed 42-10 by Navy, getting outgained 468 to 222.

As for the win over Old Dominion. I question if that wasn’t more of the Monarchs just not having anything left in the tank after a couple of grueling road games against Power 5 opponents in Virginia Tech and Virginia. ODU was only down 24-17 in the 4th quarter at Va Tech and had a 17-0 lead in a 28-17 loss to Virginia.

You also can’t ignore how this series has gone with Temple having won and covered all 5 meetings between the two inside the AAC. Each of the last 3 have been decided by 24 or more points.

Pirates are a miserable 13-40 ATS in their last 43 versus a team with a winning record. They are also 2-8 ATS last 10 off a SU win. Temple is 22-6 ATS last 28 conference games and 7-3 ATS last 10 on Thursday. Give me the Owls -11!

50* STEELERS/BENGALS MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (on Steelers -3) 

I'll take my chances here with the Steelers laying just a field goal at home against the Bengals. This just too good a price to pass up with Pittsburgh in a prime time game home. Mason Rudolph is going to be better than he was last week against the 49ers. Bengals don't have near the talent on the defensive side of the ball and are really thin up front on the d-line. 

I definitely don't trust Andy Dalton in big games. He's still without his best weapon in A.J. Green and now must go without starting left tackle Cordy Glenn. If the Bills weren't so anemic offensively they would have lost by a lot more last week. I wouldn't be shocked at all if this turned into a blowout. Give me the Steelers -3! 

40* COWBOYS/SAINTS SNF ATS SLAUGHTER (Cowboys -2.5) 

I get the Saints rolled last week at Seattle, but the Seahawks don’t look right. I get a lot of the yards Seattle racked up came late with the game out of reach, but you can’t ignore the fact that the Seahawks outgained New Orleans 515 to 265.

What really decided that game was the fact that the Saints scored 2 non-offensive touchdowns. They got a 53-yard punt return for a TD in the 1st quarter and a 33-yard fumble return in the 2nd quarter. Teddy Bridgewater threw 2 touchdowns, but was just 19 of 27 for 177 yards.

Keep in mind the offense was also awful after Brees went down in Week 2 against the Rams. New Orleans could only muster 3 field goals with Bridgewater running the show and he was just 17 of 30 for 165 yards. I don’t know how you can trust this offense at basically a pick’em against one of the better teams in the league.

On top of that, the Saints defense has not been good. New Orleans ranks 26th in the league against the run (134.7 ypg) and are 31st against the pass (319.0 ypg). Dallas has the 3rd ranked offense in the league right now, ranking 3rd in rushing (179 ypg) and 7th in passing (306.7 ypg).

You also have to factor in that these are two teams that a lot of people think will be a factor in the NFC playoffs. Given the chance that this game could potentially decide who gets a first round bye or home field in a playoff matchup, I just don’t see the Cowboys losing here. Give me Dallas -2.5!

40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Raiders +7) 

I'll take my chances here with Oakland getting a touchdown here against a banged up Colts team. I think Indy is getting a little too much love right now for their 2-1 start. They beat the Titans and Falcons and were lucky to win both of those. I get Brissett is playing well, but this is not a playoff team without Luck. Neither are the Raiders, but I don't think Oakland is as worse off as this line suggest. Raiders may have played the best team from each conference the last two weeks. I wouldn't be shocked if Oakland won this game outright. GIve me the Raiders +7! 

40* NFL VEGAS ATS PERSONAL FAVORITE (Chiefs -6.5)

I'll take my chances with Kansas City winning by at least a touchdown on Sunday. Lions are not as good as their 2-0-1 record might lead you to believe. At the same time, the Chiefs are better than anticipated and that offense is going to have a field day on the fast inside turf at the dome. I also think KC's defense is better than it's getting credit for right now. They just played a dynamic QB in Lamar Jackson, who makes something out of nothing. Lions got Stafford playing on a bum hip and they have not ran the ball great this year. I don't see Detroit keeping pace with the reigning MVP. Give me Kansas City -6.5! 

50* NFC EAST PLAY OF THE MONTH (Redskins +3) 

I'll take my chances here with Washington as a small road dog against the Giants. The public can't get enough of Daniel Jones right now and I think it has NY overvalued. Sure he played great in the win against TB last week, but they lost their best player in Saquan Barkley. Washington will be able to gameplan more for Jones, as they won't have to respect the run as much. I also think the Redskins are the better team despite the worse record. Giants defense is awful and I think Washington will have no problem moving the ball. I don't think it will be as easy for NY's offense. Give me the Redskins +3! 

50* NFL PUBLIC BLOWOUT PLAY OF THE MONTH (Chargers -14) 

I'll take my chances with Los Angeles laying only 14 against the Dolphins. Unless I missed something, Miami still wants absolutely nothing to do with winning games this season. They are off to a historically bad start and I don't think it's a fluke at all. There is no talent on this team. They have scored 16 points in 3 games and allowed 133. I get the Chargers are banged up, but they got enough talent on defense to keep Miami off the scoreboard and Rivers is playing QB. Give me Los Angeles -14! 

40* NCAAF LATE NIGHT BAILOUT ATS MASSACRE (UCLA +7) 

I'll take my chances here with Chip Kelly and UCLA building off last week's incredible 67-63 win at Washington State. That is the definition of the type of win that can completely flip the script for a program. Let's also not forget that the Bruins 1-3 start is 100% a result of a brutal schedule. 

They lost the opener at Cincinnati 24-14 and could have easily came out on top in that game. They had some costly turnovers on the road in Week 1. It happens. They had letdown at home against Sand Diego State and ran into a buzz saw in Oklahoma. To respond the way they did last week after getting kicked in the teeth to start that game says a lot about the character of the UCLA players. 

Arizona is nothing special. Khalil Tate has been one of the most overrated players in the country for years now. He's a great running back playing quarterback. I think having faced Jalen Hurts will pay off big for UCLA defense in preparing for this game. I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won this outright. Give me the Bruins +7! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK (North Texas -7) 

I'll take my chances here with North Texas laying a touchdown at home to the Cougars. It’s one thing to lose one of your best players to injury. It’s another to have two of your top players decide to just quit on their teammates because things aren’t going as well as they had hoped. For senior quarterback D’Eriq King and senior wideout Keith Corbin to pass on the final 8 games because they started out 1-3, is just not right. They are abusing the new rule where you can redshirt if you play 4 or fewer games.

With a defense that is not very good, I don’t know how the Cougars stay competitive the rest of the way without King under center. King is everything to Houston’s offense. He’s thrown for 663 yards and 6 touchdowns and leads the team in rushing with 312 yards and 6 scores. You go from a guy who was getting Heisman consideration to a guy with no experience.

They got a PAR rating that they do, which is a points above replacement value for players. King had the 4th best mark in the country at 18 points above replacement.

I just don’t see Houston’s offense being able to keep pace here with a potent North Texas offense that is led by one of the better quarterbacks you probably haven’t heard of in Mason Fine. Fine should have no problem here guiding the Mean Green offense against a Houston defense that is giving up 300 yards/game and 9.3 yards/pass attempt on the season.

The other big thing is I don’t see North Texas treating this game any differently because King isn’t playing. Mean Green haven’t won a game against Houston since 1975. North Texas head coach Seth Litrell already has 9 wins over in-state rivals in the 3+ years he’s been with the program. I think the Mean Green win and win big. Give me North Texas -7!

40* OHIO ST/NEBRASKA BIG TEN ATS DESTROYER (Nebraska +17.5)

I'll take my chances with Nebraska to cover as a 3-score home dog to Ohio State. I just think that we are seeing an inflated number here with the Buckeyes coming off 3 straight covers that really weren’t close. They covered the spread by 27.5 against Cincinnati, by 23.5 against Indiana and by 32.5 against Miami (OH).

It’s not like we haven’t seen the Buckeyes slip up in a similar spot the past two years. In 2017 they went on the road to face Iowa as a 18-point favorite and lost outright 55-24. Last year they were a 12-point favorite at Purdue and lost 49-20.

Even though Nebraska hasn’t looked as good as anticipated, there’s no question that the atmosphere for this game is going to be electric. This is a potential program defining game for Scott Frost.

With that said, I 100% believe the sloppy play and near upset at Illinois last week was a direct result of this game being on deck. One thing to note is that while the game was decided by just a few points, Nebraska was hands down the better team. The Cornhuskers outgained the Fighting Illini 673 to 299 (+374) with a 32-14 edge in first downs.

I know they haven’t seen anything like the talent that the Buckeyes have on offense, but I think it’s worth noting how good the Nebraska defense has been against the run. Cornhuskers are only giving up 117 yards/game and a mere 3.1 yards/carry. Considering Ohio State is averaging 262 rushing yards/game, if they can slow down the ground game I think they got a chance.

Buckeyes are just 2-10 ATS going back to 1992 after 4 straight games where they put up 450 or more total yards. Nebraska is also 16-4 ATS since 1992 after scoring and allowing 30 or more points in their previous game.

Home underdogs who have scored 42 or more in 2 straight games are 59-26 (69%) ATS since 1992. Also home dogs of 14.5 or more off 2 straight wins with a winning percentage of 60% to 80% are 29-7 (81%) ATS when playing a team with a winning record. Give me Nebraska!

50* NCAAF PRIME TIME PLAY OF THE MONTH (S. Carolina -3) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with South Carolina laying only a field goal at home against the Wildcats. I was impressed with the Gamecocks in their loss to Alabama a couple weeks back. I did lose with them last week as a 9.5-point dog at Missouri. They ended up losing by 20, but that's because the Tigers got two non-offensive touchdowns. It was a 17-14 game early in the 3rd quarter. 

I think backup quarterback Ryan Hilinski might actually be better than starter Jake Bentley, who they lost for the year. Hilinski threw 324 yards and 2 scores against Alabama and it's not like it all came in garbage time. Crimson Tide only outgained SC 571-459.  They were down just 11 in the 2nd half. 

Kentucky was the surprise of the SEC last year, but they have lost a lot and are also down their starting QB (Terry Wilson). I'm not all that impressed with backup Sawyer Smith, who is only completing 50.6% of his attempts with a 4-4 TD-INT ratio. Wildcats need to be dominant on the ground just to score and we saw the Gamecocks defense hold Alabama's rushing attack to just 76 yards on 25 attempts. Give me South Carolina -3! 

40* NCAAF SITUATIONAL PUBLIC ATS SHOCKER (South Florida +8)

I'll take my chances here with USF getting more than a touchdown at home against the Mustangs. I was on SMU as a near double-digit dog in last week's outright win at TCU. Now it's time to fade. I don't know that TCU was as good as people thought, which is why I liked SMU. 

SMU has gone from a team no one knew about to a team people are talking about. I think the Mustangs could be feeling themselves a bit right now and no one wants anything to do with this Bulls team. I think we get a huge effort from USF coming off their bye as a home dog. Charlie Strong is 4-1 SU off a bye at South Florida. Give me the Bulls +8! 

40* VIRGINIA/N DAME BIG GAME ATS SLAUGHTER (Virginia +11.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Virginia as a double-digit dog against the Fighting Irish. I was on Notre Dame last week in their cover at Georgia. That's because 14-points was way too many for them to be catching. 

Now it's the Irish who are being ask to lay too big a number against a quality opponent. Bronco Mendenhall has the Cavaliers going in the right direction. THey have gone from 2 to 6 to 8 wins in his first 3 years and with 14 starters back, this is the best team they have had since he came to town. 

I know they have had to rally to win a bunch of their games, but I think the 16-point win at Pitt and victory at home against a much-improved FSU team are great wins. Has to be some letdown here with the Irish off that loss to Georgia. There's also a ton of added pressure on ND, as another loss will all but eliminate them from playoff consideration. Give me Virginia +11.5! 

50* NCAAF PUBLIC MASSACRE PLAY OF THE MONTH (Baylor +3)

I'll gladly take my chances here with Baylor as a home dog against the Cyclones. I want to make it clear I love ISU head coach Matt Campbell and was on the Cyclones last week in their blowout win over ULM. I just think people are sleeping on this Baylor team. Matt Rhule has rebuilt this program the right way and we are now in year 3 of him at Waco. 

They went 1-11 in his first year and followed that up by going 7-6 with a bowl win. They got 15 starters back, including a talented jr QB in Charlie Brewer. People just haven't taken notice because of their easy schedule. They went through the motions in last week's 21-13 win at Rice. That was not as close as the final score. 

I think Baylor's defense will be the difference here. We saw Iowa State's offense struggle at home against both UNI and Iowa. BIg thing people overlook with that Iowa game is because of all the rain the Hawkeyes couldn't get a pass rush going with the sloppy field. That's their strength. The loss of running back David Montgomery and wide out Hakeem Butler are bigger than anticipated. The wrong team is favored here. Give me Baylor +3! 

40* NCAAF VEGAS ODDSMAKERS LINE MISTAKE (C Michigan +17) 

I'll take my chances here with the Chippewas getting 17-points against in-state rival Western Michigan. I think we are getting an exceptional price on Central Michigan because they are down starting quarterback Quinten Dormady. I don't think it's a severe dropoff at all to backup David Moore, especially against what I think is a pretty weak Broncos defense. 

I actually Western Michigan has the bigger injuries on the offensive side of the ball. They are down their No. 1 wide out in D'Wayne Eskridge and their top back, Levante Bellamy is questionable to play. Central Michigan just held the Hurricanes to 17 points on the road, so there's more than enough reason to think they keep the Broncos from going off. Give me the Chippewas +17! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS KNOCKOUT (Vanderbilt -6.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Vanderbilt winning by at least a touchdown at home against Northern Illinois. Definitely not paying a premium on a Commodores team that is 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS. Thing is, we knew this start was coming. Vandy has had to host two of the best teams in the country in LSU and Georgia and their lone road game was at Purdue. No question that the Commodores are better than what the numbers say. 

As for Northern Illinois, this is a team I was done on coming into the year. People might be willing to give them a pass for their 1-2 start considering their two defeats are at Utah and Nebraska. Thing is, they weren't competitive in either of those games. I also think people overlook that they were tied 10-10 in the 4th quarter with FCS foe Illinois State in their opener. 

Vandy might be the worst SEC team, but they are 7-points better than Northern Illinois. Especially with the game being at home and the team desperate for their first win of 2019. Give me the Commodores -6.5! 

50* NCAAF EARLY BIRD PLAY OF THE MONTH (Texas Tech +27.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Texas Tech as a near 4-touchdown dog against the Sooners. Oklahoma is getting all kinds of love right now. They are 3-0 with impressive wins over Houston (49-31) and UCLA (48-14). Red Raiders on the other hand are a team no one wants anything to do with coming off a 28-14 loss at Arizona and down starting quarterback Alan Bowman. 

It seems like Texas Tech has an endless supply of quarterbacks. They got two guys who can make plays in Jett Duffey and Jackson Tyner. Both are going to play and I think the uncertainty of what to expect will make it hard for Oklahoma to prepare for this game. 

Both teams are coming off a bye, but coming into 2019, the Sooners were just 1-3 under Lincoln Riley off a bye. That's a significant stat given they have only lost 4 games since he took over. Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells went 9-2 off a bye at Utah State. 

We know the Red Raiders are gonna bring it and I think it's really going to benefit them having just faced a similar quarterback to Jalen Hurts in Arizona's Khalil Tate. It could be something like 52-27 and we cash a winner with points to spare. Give me the Red Raiders +27.5! 

40* NCAAF NAVY/MEMPHIS ATS KNOCKOUT (Memphis -10.5) 

I'll take my chances here and lay the points with Memphis at home. I’m expecting Navy to be better than the team that went 3-10 last year, but I just don’t know that a couple of blowout wins over Holy Cross and East Carolina are enough for me to take them in this spot.

Not only might the Midshipmen be overvalued right now, but you have to think Memphis will be 100% locked in for this matchup. They have to be sick and tired of losing to this Navy team.

I really think having that extra week to prepare for the Midshipmen’s option attack is huge and I also feel like this might be one of the better defenses the Tigers have fielded under head coach Mike Norvell. I just don’t know that it’s as obvious to people who don’t watch this team week-to-week. Everyone thinks Cal has this amazing defense and the Golden Bears gave up 525 yards to Ole Miss. Again, Memphis held them to a mere 173 yards.

If you can keep an option team from sustaining drives and put points on the board, it’s really hard for that option team to get back in the game. Bad things tend to happen to run-first teams when they are forced to throw a lot.

Memphis has covered 5 of their last 6 at home, are 6-1 ATS last 7 inside AAC play and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 off a bye week. Navy is 2-5-1 ATS last 8 on the road, 2-6-1 ATS. Give me Memphis -10.5!

50* BEARS/REDSKINS MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Bears -5) 

I'll take my chances here with Chicago covering the spread as a 5-point road favorite against the Redskins. Usually I would be tempted to take the home dog on MNF, but I don't like this Redskins team at all right now. Washington just doesn't have the playmakers on offense or the talent on defense to be all that competitive, especially with all the guys they are missing right now. Bears offense has struggled, but the defense has been great. I think Chicago's defense dominates this matchup and we finally see Tribusky and the offense get going. Give me the Bears -5! 

40* NFL AFTERNOON ATS NO-BRAINER (Giants +7) 

I'll take my chances here with the Giants as a touchdown dog against the Bucs. I love the fact that NY decided to bench Eli Manning in favor of the rookie Daniel Jones. I really liked what I saw out of Jones in the preseason and I expect him to play well. 

As for the Bucs, I think they are getting a little too much love after beating the Panthers in Week 2. Jameis Winston can not be trusted to take care of the ball and this not a team that has really impressed on the offensive side of the ball. They want to be more of a running team, but are only averaging 3.9 yards/carry. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Giants won this game outright. Give me New York +7! 

40* NFL VEGAS ODDSMAKERS ERROR (Raiders +10) 

This might become a reoccurring theme for me, but I think we are seeing the Raiders way undervalued after a bad loss at home to the Chiefs. I was all over Jacksonville in Week 2 after they got embarrassed by KC. I just don't think people realize how good Mahomes is playing. 

Outside of the 2nd quarter where Mahomes went off, Oakland's defense really played well. That's after a strong showing in Week 1 against the Broncos. I think the Raiders are better defensively than people get credit for. 

Vikings are a good team, but I think it's asking a lot for them to win here by double-digits. I still have major concerns with the offense and it's ability to score. If Minnesota doesn't bring their "A" game, I think Oakland could win here outright. Give me the Raiders +10! 

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Colts -1) 

I'll take my chances here with Indianapolis at basically a pick'em at home against the Falcons. I'll be the first to admit I thought the Colts were in serious trouble when Luck went down. I don't think I was alone. I still think there's a lack of trust with Indy in terms of how the public views them. 

Not me. I like what I've seen out of Jacoby Brissett and this is a team that now wants to beat you with a strong running game and defense. For them to put up 203 yards rushing on the Chargers and then another 167 against the Titans, is real impressive. 

Falcons are coming off a big win at home against a Eagles team that really hasn't looked great. They had to rally from way back to avoid losing as a double-digit favorite to the Redskins in Week 1. I still think back to Week 1 when Atlanta managed just 12 points against the Vikings. 

Brissett is 6-2 ATS as a favorite. Falcons just 1-8 ATS last 9 with Matt Ryan as their starter against a team with a similar win percentage. Atlanta is also a mere 4-13 under head coach Dan Quinn in non-conference games. Give me the Colts -1! 

50* NFL WK 3 VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chiefs -6.5)

I'll take my chances here with Kansas City winning by at least at TD at home against the Ravens. The public has really fallen into the Lamar Jackson hype and we saw that with how many people looked to back them last week as a double-digit favorite against the Cardinals. To me this line is begging the public to take Baltimore, which only makes me like Kansas City more.

I get the love for Jackson. He's putting up crazy numbers, but unlike a lot of people I'm not completely on board with him as a pocket passer. His huge stateline from Week 1, where he threw for 324 yards and 5 touchdowns is going to look a lot less impressive the more beatings the Dolphins take. Miami is as bad a team as I can remember. They have officially brought tanking to the NFL.

There's nothing wrong with throwing for 272 yards and 2 scores, but Matt Stafford had 385 and 3 scores against the Cardinals in Week 1. Not to mention they only managed to score 23 points with Jackson throwing for 272 and rushing for 120.

Last year Jackson only threw for 147 yards against a Chiefs defense that was arguably the worst in the league. He also only had 67 rushing yards on 14 attempts.

This Chiefs defense isn't elite by any means, but I definitely think it's improved over last year. More than anything, you have to factor in how much better their defense tends to play at home compared to on the road. The atmosphere at Arrowhead is going to be electric with this being their home opener and how excited everyone is about this team.

I think they can contain the Ravens offense and we know we are going to get a big game from Mahomes. I don't care what the Baltimore defense did in Week 1 against the Dolphins. I'm focused on rookie Kyler Murray torching that secondary for 349 yards. Ravens defense is not as good as it was a year ago. They added Earl Thomas, but they lost Terrell Suggs, C.J. Mosley, Eric Weddle, and Za'Darius Smith. They are already down starting corner Jimmy Smith and backup corner Tavon Young.

One thing I've really been impressed with Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid is how they are able to adjust what teams are doing against them. I think playing against this Don Martindale defense last year will definitely work in their favor. Give me the Chiefs -6.5.

50* AFC SHARP MONEY GAME OF THE YEAR (Bills -6) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bills winning by at least a touchdown at home. I played against Cincinnati last week in my biggest play of Week 2 and cashed in an easy winner as the 49ers won 41-17 as a mere 1-point home favorite. 

I'm not about to sit here and tell you Buffalo is a great team, but I love this matchup. Bengals offensive line has shown me nothing. Dalton has been under a ton of pressure and they had just 34 rushing yards in Week 1 and 25 in Week 2. All their damage has come via the passing game. Bills had the No. 1 ranked pass defense last year and look every bit as good on that side this year. 

Bengals won't be able to score and while the Bills aren't an offensive juggernaut, they likely need to hit around 24 to cash in a cover. I could see them scoring even more with a few big turnovers. Give me Buffalo -6!