50* SEC SHARP MONEY GAME OF THE MONTH (Texas A&M -7.5) 

 I think a lot of people will see this matchup and see some value in almost getting double-digits with South Carolina. Part of that being they don’t quite trust Texas A&M after what happened against UCLA and the other being we have seen the Gamecocks pull off a big upset against a good team with that 35-28 victory over NC State in their opener.

I know we are only in Week 5, but this is not the same South Carolina team that we saw upset the Wolfpack and win big on the road at Missouri. The Gamecocks have been hit hard with the injury bug. None bigger than the loss of wide out and return specialist Deebo Samuel. He had 3 touchdowns in the win over NC State, including a 97-yard kickoff return for a score. He scored twice in a span of 15 seconds in their game against Missouri, turning a 0-10 deficit into a 14-10 lead.

Keep in mind that even with his help early on, the Gamecocks come into this game with the 101st ranked offense in the country, averaging just 350.3 yards/game. Let’s also not forget they were not the better team in their win over NC State, as the Wolfpack outgained them 504 to 246 with a 29-12 edge in first downs.

Clearly the offense isn’t in good shape if they can go 3 quarters and not score a point against a Louisiana Tech team from C-USA. As bad as Texas A&M’s defense looked last week against the Razorbacks, I think they will be able to slow down this South Carolina attack.

Samuel isn’t the only key player out. They lost one of their best defensive players in senior linebacker Bryson Allen-Wiliams. They aren’t expected to have starting right tackle Zack Bailey and right guard Cory Helms is questionable. Starting running back Rico Dowdle is also questionable.

I really like the way Texas A&M was able to win last week. That’s got a buzz back into the players and I expect this team to come out fired up for their conference home opener under the lights. True freshman Kellen Mond seems to be figuring out things as well. He threw for 216 yards and 2 scores, while also rushing for a team-high 109 yards in the win over the Razorbacks. I think he has a big day here and the Aggies get up early and pull away for a comfortable win and cover. Give me Texas A&M -7.5! 

50* AMERICAN ATHLETIC GAME OF THE MONTH (UCF -4) 

I really like what Scott Frost has done with this team. Last year was his first season and he took a team that went 0-12 the previous year and got them to a bowl (6-7). For those that don’t know, Frost comes over from Oregon (7 years) and brought with him that fast-tempo offense which they call “UCFast.” I think he’s a top notch coach that will could be moving on to a Power 5 program as soon as next year.

I know the defense caught a break in the game against Maryland, but the offense also did their part, scoring 38 points and racking up 428 total yards. Keep in mind that’s on the road against a Power 5 program and their first game in 3 weeks. I think the fact that the Terps did lose their QB early in that game, takes away from the win, so we aren’t see much of an overreaction here. Plus, that victory fails in comparison to Memphis’ win over UCLA.

I just trust this UCF team a lot more than I do the Tigers. I know it was a letdown spot, but that performance last week against Southern Illinois tells me this isn’t an elite team. Good teams aren’t losing at the half as a 30-point favorite to an FCS school. My biggest concern with Memphis is the defense, which ranks 116th in the country, giving up 483.7 ypg. That’s just not all from the UCLA game, they gave up over 400 yards to ULM in week 1 and 393 last week ago the Salukis.

I have a lot of confidence in that Knights offense being able to move the ball and put up points. I also think they can get some stops defensively here, allowing them to get that separation we are looking for with the cover. Memphis is a talented offensive team, but they have played all 3 of their games at home so far. More times than not, offensive production go down on the road and I’m expecting to see that here.

Even with Maryland’s QB situation, I was impressed with how they were able to shutdown the Terrapins dynamic duo out of the backfield with Lorenzo Harrison and Ty Johnson. The two had just 73 yards on 21 attempts. They had 177 on 23 attempts against Texas. Keep in mind under their new DC, Erik Chandler, the defense only gave up 24.6 ppg and 370 ypg a season ago and this program has historically been strong on that side of the ball.

I think there’s a realistic chance that UCF scores 40+ in this game and wins via a blowout. Give me the Knights -4! 

40* NCAAB BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK (Mich St -4) 

I’m going to take Michigan State minus the points at home over the Iowa Hawkeyes. I think a lot of people could be drawn to Iowa after they nearly upset Penn State in a crushing 19-21 loss at home, while Michigan State lost by 20 at home to Notre Dame. It’s a lot harder to bounce back from a blowout loss than it is a gut-wrenching defeat like the Hawkeyes suffered last week.  

You also have to factor in how big of a game that was and it being a nationally televised night game. That’s was Iowa’s chance to prove to everyone they are for real and they let the opportunity slip by. 

I’m not saying Michigan State wasn’t equally up for their home game against Notre Dame last week. I just like the fact we have a Mark Dantonio coached team off an embarrassing loss at home, playing at home against an Iowa team that is getting some love from their near upset. I also think the loss to the Irish isn’t as bad as some people think. Notre Dame is one of the elite teams in the country. 

Iowa had no business even being in that game against the Nittany Lions. The Hawkeyes had 273 total yards for the game to Penn State’s 579 (Iowa had just 61 total yards in 1st half). They ran a mere 45 plays to Penn State’s 99 and were out first downed 29 to 11. That could have just as easily been a game they lost by 40. 

In comparison the Spartans outgained Notre Dame 495 to 355 in their 20-point loss. That game really took a turn for the worse early when Brian Lewerke threw an interception that was returned 59 yards for a touchdown. Instead of Michigan State potentially driving to make it 7-7, they are down 14-0 less than 5 minutes into the game. 

Even with that loss last week, Michigan State is 56–18 at home since 2007. I just think it’s asking too much for Iowa to make this a game on the road. I also think people are still sleeping on this Spartan team after that 3-9 finish a year ago. I know it’s early, but they rank 36th in total offense and 9th in total defense. In comparison, Iowa ranks 93rd in total offense and 78th in total defense and have had the easier schedule. I think we look back at this one and realize this should have been closer to a touchdown. Give me Michigan State -4! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Boston College -10) 

I think it’s worth the risk here to lay the points with the Eagles. This is one of the better 1-3 teams you will find in the country. Not many teams play two of the best teams in the country in their first four. That’s what BC did the last two weeks with games against Notre Dame and Clemson.

The 24-point loss at home to Wake Forest is one that makes this team look worse than it is. The Demon Deacons aren’t considered a very good team, but are off to an impressive 4-0 start. The lone win came against Northern Illinois, who has a victory of their own against Nebraska.

Some teams might not show up after a stretch like BC has had, but not a Steve Addazio coached team. I expect the Eagles to take full advantage of this opportunity to beat up on someone else. This should feel like a walk in the park after the talent they have had to go up against the past two weeks.

I also think we have seen enough from this Central Michigan team to know that it’s a team the Eagles can move the ball against. That’s really the big key with BC, as the defense has been a strength for years. The Chippewas haven’t held a team under 27 points.

They could have easily lost at home to Rhode Island in their opener and got smoked by Syracuse. This just isn’t the same caliber a Central Michigan team as previous years, as they lost a big time talent QB in Cooper Rush. Michigan transfer Shane Morris only looked good against Kansas (467 yards, 5 TDs) and I see him struggling against this Eagles defense.

What will scare a lot of people off of this game, is Boston College’s starting QB, Anthony Brown is questionable. Even if he doesn’t play, I think they will have success offensively. Keep in mind backup Darius Wade has experience an has seen action in each of the last 3 games. Whoever starts will be able to take advantage of a Chippewas defense that is ranked 93rd against the run (183 ypg) and 110th vs the pass (275.8 ypg). That’s with only two games against Power 5 teams and those two being Kansas and Syracuse. Give me the Eagles -10! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (NC State -14) 

A lot of people were high on this team coming into the season. Many thought they were a sleeper in the ACC Atlantic. A 28-35 loss at home to South Carolina in their opener quickly put that hype to rest. The thing is, they were the better team in that game. They outgained the Gamecocks 504-246 and had a 29-12 edge in first downs.

They have looked the part of that sleeper team since that loss, but I don’t think people trust them just yet. They credit that win to Florida State not having their starting QB. The Seminoles’ James Blackmon went 22 of 38 for 278 yards with a 1-0 TD-INT ratio. It’s not like they got horrible QB play and that’s why NC State won. It wasn’t even a big enough win to get them in the Top 25. I don’t think that sits well with this team and they come out looking to make a statement against Syracuse.

I like the potential of the Orange under 2nd year head coach Dino Babers. I think they would have been a much bigger dog here had it not been for them keeping it close at LSU last week. Keep in mind they were getting more than 3 TD’s at LSU and are now laying getting less than 2 against a team that might be just as good, or even better.

That is the same LSU team that got embarrassed by a Mississippi State team that couldn’t hang with Georgia. At the same time, it’s not like Syracuse was all that impressive in their first 3 games. They lost at home to Middle Tennessee, who was outscored 62-9 in two games against Vanderbilt and Minnesota. They did beat Central Michigan by 24, but the Chippewas need OT to beat Rhode Island at home.

Last year each of Syracuse’s 8 losses were by 15 or more and they really struggled to keep it close against the top teams in the ACC. I just think the Orange are going to run in a buzz saw here with that dominant defensive line of NC State. Keep in mins that Syracuse likes to play fast and if the offense isn’t working, things tend to get ugly in a hurry.

We should also feel confident that NC State is able to move the ball against this Orange defense. Syracuse’s weakness is their pass defense, which just let LSU throw for more than 300 yards. The passing game is the strength of the NC State offense. The Wolfpack are just 87th in rushing (146.3 ypg) compared to 15th in pass (314.8 ypg). Give me NC State -14! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (USC -6) 

I think we are going to see a similar type of dominance here by USC to that of their blowout win at home over Stanford back in Week 2. A game they were only favored in by 3.5-points after struggling to take care of Western Michigan on the road. They failed to cover at Cal last week, but that was an awful spot for USC off two huge games against Stanford and Texas and they could have easily covered. This team is one of the best in the country and are on full alert of how good this Washington State team is. As big of an advantage as it is playing at home in these weekday night games, I think the Cougars are simply outclassed on the field. They are one dimensional offensively and the Trojans have the pass rushers and playmakers in the secondary to make life miserable for Washington State's Luke Falk. Give me the Trojans -6! 

40* BEARS/PACKERS BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Bears +7.5) 

The Packers have been decimated at the offensive tackle spot. Both starters are doubtful for this game and they have three others on IR.

It’s really limited this Green Bay offense, who hasn’t been able to get anything going on the ground and has struggled to give Rodgers the time needed to attack teams through the air. The Packers managed just 64 yards rushing against Cincinnati last week and only had 59 the previous week against the Falcons. It’s unlikely they get anything going here, as the Bears come in ranked 8th in the NFL against the run, allowing just 83.7 ypg. Last week they held Le’Veon Bell and the Steelers to just 70 yards. They also sacked Ben Roethlisberger 3 times, limiting him to just 22 of 39 passing.

I think it’s going to be hard for Green Bay to create the separation needed to cover a big spread like this. Let’s also not overlook how well Chicago has played early on this year. They were right there with the Falcons at home in Week 1 and just beat a really good Steelers team. They did get blowout on the road against the Bucs in Week 2, but that wasn’t as bad as the 29-7 final would suggest. Chicago was basically even in total yards, but were done in by 4 turnovers.

Something else that can’t be overlooked is the Green Bay defense letting a Bengals offense that couldn’t do anything the first two weeks move the ball with some success. I’m not saying the Bears are going to score at will here, but they should be able to sustain some drives and most importantly finish them with points on the scoreboard.

Bears head coach John Fox has a history of getting his teams’ to play well on the road against division opponents. In fact, he’s an impressive 31-13 ATS in this spot over his NFL head coaching career. Fox is also a strong 14-4 ATS in road games against teams that struggle to run the ball, averaging 90 or less yards/game. Give me the Bears +7.5!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cardinals +3.5)

I like Arizona here at this price against a Dallas team that I think is getting a little too much respect on the road. The Cardinals 1-1 start doesn't look good on paper and the hype around this team took a big hit when David Johnson landed on IR. I still think there's a ton of talent on the roster and see this team coming out with a chip on their shoulder in what will be their home opener. Dallas on the other hand is playing their second straight on the road after getting rolled last week in Denver. I think Arizona's defense being able to slow down the Cowboys ground game, much like the Broncos did last week will be the key here to the Cardinals not only covering the spread but winning this game outright. Give me the Cardinals +3.5! 

40* NFL UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK (Bengals +8)

The biggest issue I have with this spread is Green Bay’s injury situation on offense. Multiple members of the offensive line are banged up, as are Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. Those injuries clearly played a role in last week’s struggles against the Falcons and it remains to be seen how healthy and effective any of those injured players will be against the Bengals.

One thing that’s been lost in the shuffle of Cincinnati’s disastrous start to the season is that the Bengals have actually played solid defense the first two weeks. Considering how little support the offense has provided, the Bengals giving up just 33 points over two games is rather impressive. Geno Atkins already has three sacks on the season, and I would expect he and the team’s other pass-rushing threats will be able to create some problems against a banged up Green Bay offensive line. 

Obviously, the Bengals actually being able to locate the end zone will be important to the Bengals being able to beat the spread. But if Cincinnati can keep feeding A.J. Green the ball as much as possible, he’s bound to make something positive happen. I also don’t see the Packers having an easy time moving the ball either. This could end up being a low-scoring game that helps Cincinnati stay close and beat the spread.

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Falcons -3) 

I'll be the first to admit that I wasn't expecting a lot out of the Falcons this season coming into the year, but I really like what I have seen in the first two weeks and like the value here with Atlanta laying just a field goal on the road against a Lions team that has benefited from playing a couple teams with horrible offensive line play in the Cardinals and Giants. 

I just think Detroit's defense is getting way too much respect against this high-powered Atlanta offense and while the Lions will score, I don't see them scoring enough to keep this game close. Teams listed as a dog that have allowed 75 or fewer rushing yards in their first two games are 34-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. Give me the Falcons -3! 

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Giants +6.5)

I know New York hasn’t looked good in their first two games, but there is still a ton of talent on this roster. I fully expect the Giants to make some adjustments with their offensive line and make sure that Eli Manning gets some protection.

It’s also going to help that Odell Beckham Jr will be another week removed from his ankle injury. He was clearly not 100% last week against the Lion. He caught just 4 passes for 36 yards. Look for a much bigger game out of him. I also like what I’m hearing about New York making a move to Orleans Darkwa at running back. He’s impressed in limited action and any improvement with their ground attack will help the passing game get going.

This is also a hurting Eagles defense right now. They aren’t expected to have their top corner in Ronald Darby for 4-6 weeks to start the year. They could also be without starting defensive end Brandon Graham, who is questionable with a hamstring injury. Philadelphia also has starting safety Rodney McLeod and backup Jaylen Watkins listed as questionable with hamstring injuries.

What you can’t forget with the Giants is that while the offense isn’t performing up to their potential, they still have one of the leagues top defenses. One that I think really matchups up well with an Eagles offense that struggles to run the ball. At the same time, Carson Wentz is a QB that likes to take chances and will turn the ball over.

Keep in mind the Eagles had just 13-points against a Chiefs defense missing one of it’s best players in Eric Berry up until the final seconds when they added a late TD. I’m not saying the Giants win outright, but given how desperate they are to avoid an 0-3 start and the defenses ability to keep them in the game, I would have to take the points in this one.

50* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Bucs -2.5) 

I don't think the public is quite on par with how good this Bucs team is and I just see too much value here with Tampa laying less than a field goal with Minnesota missing starting quarterback Sam Bradford. Case Keenum was terrible in place of Bradford last week against the Steelers, completing just 20 of 37 for 167 yards (4.5 yards/attempt). He's just good enough to get the job done here against a stingy Bucs defense. 

I also really like this Tampa Bay offense. The addition of DeSean Jackson really opens up the offense, as you have to worry about him going deep and at the same time you have one of the elite wide outs on the other side in Mike Evans. As long as Winston takes care of the football, Tampa should have no problem securing a win here. Give me the Bucs -2.5! 

50* NCAAF PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Colorado +12) 

I think this line is one the public will jump on Washington. Given what happened in last year’s title game and the fact that this is short number for a Top 10 team to be laying against an unranked opponent. That tells me the oddsmakers like this Colorado team to hang tough and so do I.

Revenge is a big time motivator on the collegiate level and this is the game that Colorado had circled on their schedule. It’s one thing to lose a close game. It’s another to get embarrassed like they did in the Pac-12 title game. Expect a fired up Buffaloes team that isn’t just coming into to keep it close, but win this game outright.

Washington is a talented team and a program that is headed in the right direction under Chris Petersen. I just don’t know that they aren’t getting a little too much respect off of last year’s trip to the playoffs. Especially on the road against what I think is a really good Colorado team.

People aren't giving the Buffaloes the respect they deserve. I don’t blame them. It’s hard to trust a team that's been horrible for so many years. Prior to last year’s shocking 10-4 finish, Colorado hadn’t qualified for a bowl (6 wins) since 2007.

Head coach Mike MacIntyre has done this before. Taking a miserable San Jose State program to a 12-win season in his 3rd year on the job. He’s finally recruited enough talent (had very little to work with when he got here) to compete and would expect them to be a threat in the Pac-12 going forward.

I also think we have seen some concerning signs for Washington, despite a lot of blowout wins. Their opener against Rutgers was a lot more competitive than the final score would indicate. The Huskies only outgained the Scarlet Knights 368-369.

The other big concern with Washington is their running game. The Huskies rank 96th in the country in rushing at just 129.7 ypg. That’s with them rushing for 213 yards against Montana. They had just 84 yards rushing against Rutgers and a mere 92 against Fresno State. That puts a lot of pressure on Jake Browning to do it all for the offense, which isn’t easy on the road.

I really think this is a game that Colorado can pull off the upset. Keep in mind that they went a perfect 6-0 at home last year. That included wins against two ranked teams. Add in the double-digit spread to work with and it certainly feels like the right side. Give me the Buffaloes +12! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS KNOCKOUT (Troy -15.5) 

Troy hasn't covered the spread yet in 2017 (0-3) and I just think it has them way undervalued here against an Akron team that isn't any good. The Zips list 52-0 at Penn State to open the year and that was 35-0 at the half. Last week they lost at home to an Iowa State team that will be lucky to make a bowl by a final of 41-14. The Trojans slow start has a lot to do with them having played on the road against a very good Boise State team and another road game last week against an up and coming New Mexico State team that held their own on the road against Arizona State. Troy's due for a breakout performance and I feel like this is the perfect spot for them to lay a beating on the Zips. Give me the Trojans -15.5! 

100* BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR (Michigan -10) 

I can’t say enough about how impressive a job Brohm has done in such a short period of time with the Boilermakers. I could see why people would be tempted to take Purdue here at home, given how well they have played and Michigan not playing all that great the first few weeks. I just think it’s asking a lot of the Boilermakers to keep it within single-digits here against the Wolverines.

Not to take anything away from Purdue, but I think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction here with this line. I believe most would have had this line closer to 21 than 10 prior to the season starting. I think the Boilermakers offense is going to be in for a rude awakening in this one. While the offense hasn’t performed up to expectation, the Wolverine defense has been outstanding once again. Michigan ranks 9th against the run (82.3 ypg) and 12th against the pass (125.7 ypg). While Purdue has played some good teams, the best defense they have faced statistically is Ohio, which ranks 66th and that’s with them allowing a mere 108 yards in a 59-0 win over Hampton in their opener.

As for the offensive struggles for Michigan, it’s really been about their inability to finish drives in the red-zone. They have been the worst in the country in converting red-zone trips into touchdowns. Last week they had 4 trips inside the 20 and all 4 times had to settle for field goals. That’s definitely a concern, but I just think a team as well-coached as the Wolverines will figure it out and once they do, look out.

A big key to this one could be Purdue’s offense not being able to sustain drives, which in turn will have their defense on the field for long stretches and likely out of gas come the 2nd half. I also don’t think that Harbaugh will allow Michigan to overlook Purdue given how strong the Boilermakers have started and how poorly the Wolverines have played. With a bye week on deck, there’s no excuse for Michigan to not lay it all on the line. Give me the Wolverines -10! 

40* NCAAF SMALL CONFERENCE ATS BLOODBATH (Miami, OH -1)

Love the RedHawks in this spot. Miami has gotten off to a disappointing 1-2 start, which makes this game feel like one they have to have. I don't think there's any question they are the better team and feel this line would have been closer to 7 if Miami's first few games would have gone a little differently. They lost by 5 at Marshall in their opener and that was with the Thundering Herd scoring 3 non-offensive touchdowns. They then blew a big lead late against Cincinnati last week. Central Michigan has a 17-41 loss to Syracuse and needed OT to beat Rhode Island at home. These two played last year and Miami won 37-17. The RedHawks have 17 returning starters from that team and should have no problem pulling out the victory. Give me Miami (OH) -1! 

50* UTAH/ARIZONA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY

Utah over recent years has been a team built on a more conservative rushing approach. They are really opening it up this year under new offensive coordinator Troy Taylor, who had Eastern Washington averaging 42 ppg and 530 ypg last year. Sophomore Tyler Huntley has really turned heads with his play on the field, as he's got the looks of one of the country's top dual threat QBs.  He's completed 72.1% of his attempts for 868 yards, while also rushing for a team-high 212 yards and 3 scores. He’s really enjoyed the addition of wide out Darren Carrington II, who transferred in from Oregon. Carrington all ready has 26 catches for 409 yards and 4 scores. The former Duck went as far as to compare Huntley to a young Marcus Mariota, who he played with. They just entered the Top 25 this week (had been ranked No. 22 last week in the coaches poll). I just don’t think the public or the books have quite caught on to how good this team is. I know it’s early, but they rank 39th in total offense and 12th in total defense. The big key here for more is the Utes run defense, which is 2nd in the country, allowing just 49.3 yards/game. Arizona really needs to be able to run the ball to have any success offensively. In their two wins they have 506 rushing yards against Northern Arizona and 326 against UTEP. In their loss to Houston, they had just 152. Give me the Utes -3.5! 

50* NFC VEGAS ATS GAME OF THE MONTH (Rams -2.5) 

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE BLOWOUT (Panthers -7)

I'm big on Carolina this season, as I think we are going to see them jump right back into being near the top of the NFC. I really like the decision to keep Newton from running and use the backs more. They couldn't have looked much better on the road against the 49ers in Week 1. Buffalo also got a win and cover, but against the worst team in the league and that was a close game going into the 4th quarter. Luke Keuchley and the Panthers defense will be able to take away the Bills strength, which is their running game. That's going to allow Carolina to open this thing up and win here by double-digits. Give me the Panthers -7! 

40* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY ATS ANNIHILATOR (Patriots -6) 

40* PRIME TIME NCAAF PUBLIC ANNIHILATOR (Texas +16) 

It's amazing how quickly everyone jumped off the Texas bandwagon after they got upset as a big favorite at home in their opener against Maryland. The Longhorns responded to that loss as well as you could, crushing San Jose State 56-0 with a ridiculous 623 to 171 edge in total yards and 32-8 advantage in first downs. I think the public would be on them against just about anyone than USC, who just routed Stanford. The Trojans are good, but this is a ton of points for a team coming off as big as win as USC is. They had that game against Stanford circled on the calendar after losing to them last year. We already saw the Trojans not bring it all against Western Michigan, allowing the Broncos to hang around in the 4th quarter. Texas has enough offense to make this a game. Give me the Longhorns +16! 

40* NCAAF BIG FAVORITE ATS BLOWOUT (Houston -22.5)

I really like the Cougars here. Houston is a team that I think is flying under the radar this season, as everyone has written them off after Todd Herman left to take over at Texas. There's a ton of talent still on this Houston team. That includes possibly the best defensive player in the country in defensive tackle Ed Oliver, who makes everyone around him better by his ability to live in the opponents backfield. The offense added Texas A&M transfer and former 5* QB recruit Kyle Allen to ease the loss of Greg Ward. Rice is a bad team that has struggled to adjust to the new era of spread offenses and were also no match against Stanford in the opener giving up more than 600 yards. I see the Cougars putting this away early and coasting to a win and cover. Give me Houston -22.5! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS LINE MISTAKE OF THE WEEK (W Michigan -20.5)

I have really been impressed with Western Michigan, as they have come out of the gates swinging and hung in there with both USC and Michigan State. Know one expected anything out of this team after P.J. Fleck left, but there's a ton of talent on this roster. Idaho was far from impressive in a 28-6 win against Sacramento State and then lost at home 16-44 to a UNLV team that lost 40-43 in Week 1 to Howard in the biggest upset in CFB history (based on spread). The Broncos aren't going to take this likely after their 0-2 start and this will feel like a walk in the park after the talent they have faced. Give me Western Michigan -20.5! 

40* NCAAF UNDER ATS SHOCKER (Northern Illinois +13)

This is a game that I wouldn't be surprised if the dog won outright. Northern Illinois has been down the past couple of seasons, but this is one of the top 'Group of 5' programs and they have already proven themselves against Boston College out of the ACC, nearly beating the Eagles on the road. Key here is Nebraska is primed for a letdown after the game against the Ducks last week in Oregon and homecoming/Big Ten opener on deck. The other key here is Nebraska's defense has been bad. They gave up 36 points and nearly 500 yards to Arkansas St out of the Sun Belt in their opener (outgained on the game). Northern Illinois is only giving up 104 ypg and 2.2 yards/carry against the run. If they can keep Nebraska from running all over, they will be in this thing until the end. Give me the Huskies +13! 

40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD PUBLIC BLOODBATH (Air Force +23) 

I think this is too many points for Michigan to be laying at home. Air Force runs the triple-option and while the Wolverines defense has played well early, I could see them struggling against this attack. The other thing with the option offense is that it leads to a lot of drives that eat up clock and an even bigger key here is that the Wolverines can keep the Falcons from finishing those drives with touchdowns. Michigan's offense hasn't exactly looked great to start and I think they struggle to find a rhythm here. Also not a great spot against Michigan, as this is the easiest game in the first 4 before their bye, as they open up conference play next week. Give me the Falcons +23! 

50* NCAAF WEEKDAY PLAY OF THE MONTH (Arizona -23) 

I know 23-points is a lot to lay on the road, but I don't think it's near enough for the gap in talent between these two teams. I'm not the least bit concerned with Arizona's poor showing last week against Houston. In fact, I had the Cougars in that one. The Miners are one of the worst teams in the FBS. They got rolled 56-7 by Oklahoma and that was with the Sooners having a massive lookahead game to Ohio State. They followed it up by losing 14-31 at home to Rice of all teams, who you might recall got absolutely destroyed by Stanford. UTEP allowed Rice to rush for 306 yards and average more than 6 yards/carry. Arizona's defense played well against Houston and are better on that side of the ball than they have been. The offense should score at will and I wouldn't be shocked if they had this covered well before the half. Give me the Wildcats -23! 

50* TEXANS/BENGALS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Bengals -6) 

Wouldn't be shocked if the public comes in on the Texans with Watson expected to start, but I'm not one that believes he's ready to be an NFL quarterback. For as many good moments he's had, he's also looked really bad at times. The biggest thing for me is he's in a situation where it will be extremely tough to succeed. The offensive line is a complete mess, in large part to the holdout of left tackle Duane Brown and injury to guard Jeff Allen. They also are down their top 3 tight ends on the depth chart, as well as their No. 2 wide out in Will Fuller. Throw in the rookie mistakes and the disadvantage of playing on the road on a short week of rest and I have to roll the Bengals at home. I'm not super high on Cincinnati, but do feel there's a bit of an overreaction here with how bad they played last week against possibly the best defense in the NFL in the Ravens. Dalton will get the offense back on track. Give me the Bengals -6! 

40* NEW MEXICO/BOISE ST ATS KNOCKOUT (Boise St -14) 

I know the Broncos have had their troubles covering at home of late, but I just feel there's too much value on Boise St laying just 2 touchdowns to the Lobos to pass up a play on them. This line has dropped and some of that likely has to do with the injury status of starting QB Brett Rypien, who has been listed as questionable. The thing is, the offense has actually looked better in the first two weeks under backup Montell Cozart (KU transfer). In fact, Cozart has just 25 fewer yards on 2 fewer attempts passing with a 3-1 TD-INT ratio. Rypien hasn't even thrown a TD. Cozart also adds another dynamic with his ability to run. He's second on the team with 108 yards on the ground. I think he's going to start and that only makes me like the Broncos more here. New Mexico was down 30-5 in the 4th quarter before a late rally last week. I hear a lot about Boise St suffering a let down after blowing that big lead late against Washington State. I think it has the opposite effect and they roll in this one. Give me the Broncos -14! 

50* AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Ravens +3)

I think the Ravens are a huge sleeper in the AFC this season. Baltimore had been so consistent for so long under Harbaugh, but had to go through a bit of a rebuilding phase with all the veterans they parted way with on both sides. Ozzie Newsome has done a tremendous job once again and while a lot of people aren't aware of it, Baltimore has the looks of one of the best defensive teams in the league this year. I also think the offense is way underrated and Joe Flacco is poised for a big bounce back season. Cincinnati's defense has been on the decline for years and will be without two of their best defenders in Burfict and Pac-Man. The offense has some new weapons, but the offensive line is a concern and figures to get exposed here. Give me the Ravens +3! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY GAME OF THE MONTH (Houston PK)

Houston had their Week 1 game called due to Hurricane Harvey and I think that's helping us here. The public isn't really sure what to think of the Cougars, who lost what everyone perceived to be the best up and coming coach in the country in Tom Herman. No doubt the departure of Herman takes them down a notch, but people are overlooking the talent he left behind. The offensive scheme will be the same and they added in an experienced starter at QB in Texas A&M transfer Kyle Allen. On defense they have one of the best players in the country in Ed Oliver, who was an All-American as a true freshman last year. He's the kind of talent that can make so many players around him better. I'm down on the Wildcats this year and don't see them being able to keep pace. Give me Houston -110! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT PUBLIC MASSACRE (USC -5.5)

I'm not overreacting to USC's less than stellar start to the season against a Western Michigan team that is way better than anyone is giving them credit for. I think the Trojans were caught off guard by how much talent was on that Broncos roster. Especially given the fact you know they were looking ahead to this huge revenge game against Stanford, which they feel is their first big test to getting to the college football playoffs. I look for a much more focused USC team in this one and I don't think Stanford will be able to do enough here to keep this within a touchdown. Give me the Trojans -5.5! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS NO BRAINER (Notre Dame -5)

For whatever reason people aren't buying into the Irish's 49-16 blowout win over a Temple team that is better than they are getting credit for. I love the fact that people are doubting this team, as they play their best with a chip on their shoulder. Georgia's 31-10 win over App St was closer than the final score would indicate. In that game, Bulldogs starter Jacob Eason injured his knee and is out for this game. True freshman Jake Fromm is getting a ton of praise, but I'd be willing the nerves kick in on the road in one of the most historic venues in college football. This is a statement  game for Notre Dame and I'm confident they deliver. Give me the Irish -5! 

40* NCAAF WEEK 2 VEGAS DOG OF THE DAY (Western Mich +7.5)

I don't think Michigan State looked as good as they are getting credit for in their 35-10 win over Bowling Green. The offense was hit or miss and 7 of those points came via the defense. Bowling Green use to be a formidable foe out of the MAC, but that's no longer the case. Most people just threw Western Michigan under the bus after losing their head coach in Fleck, NFL WR in Corey Davis and starting QB, but this team came to play against a very good USC team and traded blows in the 4th quarter with the Trojans. I think Fleck left a ton of talent in Western Michigan and I think there's a chance they pull off the big upset they nearly had a week ago. Give me the Broncos +7.5!

50* NCAAF NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (Northwestern -2)

Northwestern got caught off-guard by a much improved Nevada team, but were able to pull away for a 31-20 win. I expect a much more focused Wildcats team in Saturday's game against Duke, who I think they are far superior to. The Blue Devils 60-7 win over NC Central looks good on paper, but it was a similar performance to their 49-6 win over NC Central to start out last season. They followed that with a 14-24 home loss to a below-average Wake Forest team and proceeded to finish the year 4-8. I look for Northwestern to take control of this game early and win here by double-digits. Give me the Wildcats -2! 

40* CHIEFS/PATRIOTS WEEK 1 ATS KNOCKOUT (Chiefs +9.5)

*Analysis Coming* 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Va Tech -4.5)

A lot of hype with West Virginia due to the addition of former Florida quarterback Will Grier. While he's a good talent, he hasn't played in over a year and the Mountaineers lost a ton of talent off last year's 10-win team. In fact, they are one of the least experienced teams in the entire country with just 8 starters and 35 lettermen returning from last season. I was impressed with what Justin Fuente did in his first season on the job in Blacksburg and expect this program to get back to that elite level we saw during the prime Beamer years. I also think the ACC is hands down better than the Big 12. Give me Virginia Tech -4.5! 

50* NCAAF NON-CONF RIVALARY GAME OF THE MONTH (NC State -5)

40* NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (UNC -12.5)

Both of these teams lose a high-caliber starting quarterback. I have a lot more faith in Larry Fedora at UNC to get the Tar Heel offense rolling in 2017 than I do with Cal and first year head coach Justin Wilcox, who is a defensive minded guy. North Carolina has scored 30+ ppg in each of the first 5 seasons under Fedora and I expect LSU transfer Brandon Harris to be dynamic in this offense that has thrived with mobile quarterbacks. If he doesn't end up starting, that only means they have someone more talented, which isn't a bad thing. As for the Golden Bears, this is a major transition season and they simply don't have the talent at QB they have had the past two seasons with Goff and Webb. Not to mention this has been a historically bad road team and they are playing clear-across the country against a Tar Heels team that I think has a lot to prove. Give me North Carolina -12.5! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (E. Michigan -14) 

I got no problem laying 2 touchdowns with the Eagles at home against the likes of Charlotte. These two teams played last year and Eastern Michigan won on the road 37-19 and it wasn't as competitive as the final score would indicate. That was part of a major turnaround season for the Eagles, who went 7-6, making a bowl game for the first time since 1987. Not a big surprise given the track record of head coach Chris Creighton, who finally got his guys on the field in year 3. Now heading into year 4, this team looks even better than last year with 16 returning starters. They aren't going to overlook Charlotte with this being their season opener and while the Eagles looked improved, the 49ers figure to take a step back (went 4-8 last year), as they return just 12 starters and lost big time pieces to the puzzle on both sides of the ball. Give me Eastern Michigan -14! 

40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Ohio State -21)

This is a statement game for the Buckeyes, who I think is the most talented team in the country going into the season. Ohio State was embarrassed in the playoffs, getting shutout by Clemson 31-0. Urban Meyer now has the full attention of his team, which I think had some trouble dealing with the success of winning it all a couple years ago. They have an experienced QB in JT Barrett, plus big time talent all over the field on both sides of the ball. They also have a new OC in Kevin Wilson, who was let go by Indiana. I think there is some bad blood with Wilson and the Hoosiers. I see the Buckeyes really laying it on Indiana here in support of Wilson, though they likely would have even if he wasn't with the team. Give me the Buckeyes -21! 

40* NCAAF PUBLIC MASSACRE (Buffalo +24)

I tip my hat to P.J. Fleck and what he was able to do at Western Michigan. I just think he's got the Gophers way over-valued going into the season. Fleck has a lot of work to do with this Minnesota team, who weren't as impressive as their 9-wins would suggest last year. Four of those wins came against Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois and Purdue in the Big 10 and two more were against Oregon State and Indiana State. He's got to replace a 4-year starter at QB on offense and the defense only has 5 guys back. Buffalo should see a big spike in production with 14 starters returning and now being in the 3rd year under their head coach. I see them hanging around here and making this a game. Give me the Bulls +24! 

50* NCAAF OPENING DAY ATS KNOCKOUT (USF -21) 

I think there's some who are a bit cautious backing USF due to the coaching change, but I'm more than willing to lay this big number on the Bulls. San Jose State is completely outclassed here and simply don't have the talent on defense to slow down USF's star quarterback Quinton Flowers, who is almost as dynamic a dual threat QB as Louisville Lamar Jackson. Last year Flowers threw for nearly 3,000 yards with 24 touchdowns to just 7 interceptions and had a ridiculous 1,530 yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground. Spartans are in the first year of a new head coach with new schemes on both sides of the ball. I think USF has this one covered early in the 1st half and continues to poor it on. Give me the Bulls -21! 

Bonus 2-Team 7-pt Teaser - USF -14 & Oregon St +10.5

50* Super Bowl 51 Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Patriots -3) 

I have to take my chances with the Patriots to win and cover in Super Bowl 51. If not for a couple of crazy catches, New England would be 6-0 in Super Bowls under Brady and Belichick. The Patriots ability to gameplan for teams is something that doesn't get enough credit. There's so much hype around the Falcons offense, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if Belichick devised some kind of gameplan here to limit Atlanta and potentially turn this into a lopsided final. So much attention is being paid to the Falcons offense, I think it's Atlanta's defense that should be the focus, as I just don't see them being able to keep this Patriots offense in check. Give me New England -3!

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play  (Falcons -5.5)

It's been a great run for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, but I think the fun stops here for Green Bay. Atlanta isn't just favored here so the public can cash in all their bets on the Packers. This line really tells you what the sharps think of this matchup and I couldn't agree more. This Falcons team just don't get the respect they deserve and I see them having no problem winning here by at least a touchdown. The offense should be able to have their way against a depleted Green Bay defense, who is going to struggle with all the matchup problems the Falcons present. Atlanta can also control the clock and keep Rodgers off the field if need by. Most importantly, I think Falcons head coach Dann Quinn is going to put together a gameplan here to keep Greeen Bay's offense from going off. Keep in mind the Packers offense really struggled in the 2nd half against Dallas. Give me the Falcons -5.5!

50* NFL Divisional Rd Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Chiefs -1)

Forget the fact that the Steelers won in a blowout in the regular season. That result means a little, especially given how early in the season it was. The Chiefs are a much better team than they were in that first meeting. Offensively rookie sensation Tyreek Hill was barely a part of the offense. Now he’s arguably their most important player alongside tight end Travis Kelce. On defense they didn’t have Justin Houston, who should be full go after getting multiple weeks off.

40* NFL Texans/Patriots ATS Knockout (Patriots -15)

I believe the books have set this line so high to not only entice action on the Texans, but to keep the public from pounding the Patriots. It's working, as this is the least bet game on the board. While the public might be hesitant to lay this big number on New England, I have no problem backing the Patriots to win by 3 scores at home. New England beat the Texans 27-0 at home in the regular season with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. I see no reason why they won't win by at least 17 with Brady under center. The thing is, it's well known that the Texans defense is good. However, the Pats have had two weeks to prepare for this defense, plus have already seen them in action. What makes them so good is their pass rush, most notably Clowney. Like they did in the first meeting, when they made Watt a non-factor, they will do the same with Clowney. Brady's dink and dunk approach will be able to move the ball. On the flip side of this, New England defense will be ready for Osweiler and his limitations and should be able to generate a couple turnovers and win here by 20+. Give me the Patriots -15!

50* NFL Wild Card Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Texans -3.5)

50* NCAAF Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Auburn +3)

I like the value here with the Tigers as a 3-point dog against the Sooners, as I actually have Auburn rated better than Oklahoma and expect them to win this game outright. Oklahoma and the Big 12 are overrated and I'm just not buying this Sooners team being as good as everyone makes them out to be. Auburn has the talent defensively to give Oklahoma's offense trouble and the weapons to attack what I feel is a very suspect Sooners defense. Give me Auburn +3!

40* NFL Blockbuster ATS Knockout (Chiefs -4) 

The Chiefs had one of the more remarkable comebacks of the season when they hosted the Chargers back in Week 1. I believe that has this line a little lower than it should be. Kansas City is coming off one of their best performances of the season last week against the Broncos and are the only team with something to play for in this game. This is also not the same Chargers team that jumped out to that big lead in Week 1. San Diego has been decimated with injuries and clearly are struggling to find motivation down the stretch with their loss last week to the Browns. Despite the fact that the Chiefs are 21-4 in their last 25 regular season games, this team just doesn't get the respect it deserves. I look for KC to rack up their 6th straight win over the Chargers and think there's a good chance they do so by double-digits. Give me the Chiefs -4!

40* NFL Situational Dog of the Week (Bengals +1) 

I think the books have set a bad line here with the Ravens as a road favorite against the Bengals. Cincinnati has been out of the playoff picture for a while now and while they are short-handed, they have not quit and I certainly aren't going to lay down in their home finale against a division rival. Baltimore is a good team and probably should be favored over Cincinnati in most situations. The thing is, this isn't one of them. The Ravens essentially played a playoff game last week at Pittsburgh. Win and they controlled their destiny in the AFC North, lose and they are out of the playoff race. That's a really tough pill to swallow and I just don't see them coming out and playing their hearts out with their season basically lost last week. When you aren't motivated to play, things can get ugly in a hurry, regardless of who the other team has on the field. Give me the Bengals +1!

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Eagles -4.5) 

I absolutely love the value here with the Eagles in this one. Dallas is treating this like a Week 1 preseason game (resting guys, only playing starters for a series or two). I know the Eagles are favored, but I don't think by near enough given the circumstances. This game means absolutely nothing to the Cowboys and the only thing on the coaches and players minds is to make sure no one gets hurt. They are going to keep things very vanilla and get the scrubs in as quickly as possible. The reason the line isn't bigger, is because there's so many public Cowboys backers out there that will bet them regardless of the situation. Philadelphia has shown they aren't going to just lay down and quit because their season didn't go as planned. I think this one is going to get ugly in a hurry and even if Dallas keeps it close early, they should pull away in the 2nd half. Give me the Eagles -4.5!