Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens +4 | Top | 35-36 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
NFL 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens +4 - The Ravens are off a disappointing OT loss at Las Vegas on Monday Night. For all intents and purposes, their season is now over. I am being sarcastic of course but I am simply pointing out public perception here as this line has risen on the Chiefs from -2.5 point favorites to being as high as -4.5 point favorites. Keep in mind Kansas City went 14-2 SU last season but only covered 6 of the 16 games. There is a lot of value here in the home dog in this one. Baltimore is off a road loss and now back home and, keep in mind, they got the cash in 10 of their 16 games last season. KC, of course, is a great team but the public is so enamored with them that it often drives their lines too high. I strongly believe that will prove to be the case again here. Last year Mahomes outplayed Jackson and the Chiefs got a dominating road win at Baltimore last September. So everyone expects this game to be the same. The KC defense did not look good at all last week and gave up substantial yardage to the Browns both through the air and on the ground. Keep in mind, when a home dog can get their ground game going they are particularly dangerous. The Chiefs defense was at home last week and still did not look good. They are generally known for being tougher at home but that was not the case last week. That spells trouble as they now take to the road to face a Ravens team that is angry off a loss plus hell-bent on revenge from last season's home loss to these Chiefs. Keep in mind, Ravens were on a 6-0 ATS run prior to losing to the Raiders last week. Look for them to get back into the SU win column here but I will gladly grab the points as added insurance here as well. 10* BALTMORE +4 |
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09-19-21 | Bills -3 v. Dolphins | 35-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
NFL 8* Buffalo Bills -3 - The Bills lost at home to the Steelers but dominated statistically and were done in by a blocked punt returned for a Pittsburgh TD. Buffalo is much better than the scoreboard showed last week. The Dolphins are off a big divisional win at Foxboro last week but they were statistically dominated by the Patriots. In other words, these teams are off disparate results last week and that is helping to offer line value this week on the better team. Yes Buffalo is on the road but I am happy for that as this is keeping the line manageable. If this game was in upstate New York the line would be nearly double digits and I do not like to lay big points in the NFL. The Dolphins have lost 7 of last 8 versus the Bills and I expect that streak to continue here and look for the road favorites to pull away for big win as Miami gets caught still celebrating big upset win over New England last week. 8* BUFFALO -3 |
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09-18-21 | Winnipeg v. Edmonton Elks +7 | Top | 37-22 | Loss | -104 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Edmonton +7 - The Elks are starting back-up QB. I am well aware of this but, at home and with solid running skills, Taylor Cornelius is going to be a pleasant surprise. Getting a full +7 with Edmonton at home is a huge value. The Elks have been very strong statistically this season and should have a better record. They have a solid defense and added another key piece to that defense with a recent star acquisition. This team solid on both sides of the ball and they catch Winnipeg off a key divisional win over Saskatchewan. The set up here is perfect for a home dog upset. Yes the Blue Bombers have been very solid early this season but laying a full 7 on the road against a quality home team is simply too much. Yes the Elks Cornelius is making his first start at QB but he has solid QB skills and there is a big difference between making your first ever start at home comparted to on the road. He is going to have a solid game and this defense for the Elks also keys a very tight game decided by a single score margin in my strong estimation. 10* EDMONTON +7 |
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09-18-21 | Auburn v. Penn State -5 | Top | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions -5 - Not only has Penn State won at Wisconsin, the big win they had over Ball State means they did defeat the MAC Champions of a year ago quite handily. Granted Auburn is a very strong SEC team but this game is at Happy Valley where PSU is known for being a tough team to face. The Nittany Lions hold a key edge here too and that is the fact that the Tigers QB has struggled on the road. While the Auburn QB has solid overall numbers in his career, the positive production has come at home whereas on the road Bo Nix has thrown as many picks as touchdowns. It is no wonder the Tigers have had some road struggles during his time under center. Long term this Auburn team has only covered 32% of the time the last 25 times they have been a road dog. Look for Penn State to carry momentum from their strong start to the season right into this game. This is a night game at Beaver Stadium and the crowd will be roaring with the ESPN cameras on hand. The Nittany Lions defense returned the majority of key contributors from last season's team and I look for this D to make things very tough on Nix and the Tigers offense as his long-term road struggles continue. The line from a 7 down to a 5 is leading to solid line value here as well! 10* PENN STATE -5 |
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09-18-21 | BC v. Montreal -2.5 | 27-18 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 2 m | Show | |
CFL 8* Montreal Alouettes -2.5 - The Als are off a bye week and they also opened the season with a bye. Montreal is playing just their 2nd home game of the season and they lost their first one. They want this game and they will get it! BC has a solid record but 2 of their games were against a bad Ottawa team. The Redblacks are so much worse than everyone else in the league right now. One of the Lions road wins was at Ottawa and the other road win was at Calgary in a game in which the Stampeders threw 4 picks. The other road game was BC's season opener in which they only lost by 4 points but they were down huge early in that game. I do not see the Als being denied at home here and they have the fresher legs right now and the Lions simply a bit over-valued, particularly on the road, because of the reasons I just mentioned. 8* MONTREAL -2.5 |
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09-18-21 | Purdue +7.5 v. Notre Dame | 13-27 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
CFB Saturday 8* Purdue Boilermakers +7.5 - I am not sold on this Notre Dame team. Not at all. They barely hung on to beat Florida State in their season opener. Keep in mind the Seminoles then lost to Jacksonville State last week so that Fighting Irish tight win over the Noles looks even more concerning right now. Then last week, even though at home, the Irish barely hung on to beat Toledo. While the Rockets are generally a respectable program, that is still a MAC team. Now ND renews an old rivalry with Purdue. Generally speaking, I like having the points in rivalry games if I feel the programs match-up quite well. In this case, I certainly like the fact that Notre Dame has been struggling to win games and the Boilermakers are off to a solid start. Yes the Boilers played a bad UConn team last week but they faced a respectable Oregon State team in their prior game. Boilermakers QB Jack Plummer has been playing very well and not making mistakes. This Irish team going to have trouble pulling away in this one and I look for it to go down to the wire. 8* PURDUE +7.5 |
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09-17-21 | Central Florida v. Louisville +7 | Top | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play Louisville +7 - The Cardinals lost to an Ole Miss team in week 1 that has certainly looked very sharp early this season. I feel we have great home dog value here as a result. Yes the Rebels proved very tough on the Louisville defense in week 1 but they were one of the best offenses in the nation last year. Yes the Knights are a fantastic offense too but the Cards were more competitive in week 1 than the final score showed. They had chances to put points on the board early and did not and the game got away from them after that. I don't see that happening again here. Central Florida is not the exact same powerhouse when they are on the road and this game is going to be a challenge for them. I would argue that Louisville has the better defense in this match-up plus the better special teams units overall and when you add that to home field edge plus getting about a full TD here as a dog I like my chances with the hosts here. Look for UCF to drop to 4-8 ATS that last dozen times they have been a road favorite. It has not shown up yet from an ATS standpoint but this Cardinals team is improved this season but flying under the radar due to an 0-2 ATS start. The result is line value in this spot. 10* LOUISVILLE +7 |
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09-17-21 | Calgary +2.5 v. Hamilton | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders +2.5 - I absolutely do respect the Tiger-Cats defense. However, they have a major issue at QB. They lost starting QB Dane Evans to injury last week and now they are starting a guy, David Watford, who has hardly played at the CFL level. This is no disrespect to him but just saying it is going to be a difficult situation for him. For Calgary, the situation is completely different. Not only is Bo Levi Mitchell back, the other QB that had filled in him for was fantastic. Jake Maier can step right if Mitchell got hurt again. The point is that right now the Stampeders have two healthy quarterbacks that are both better than the Tiger-Cats current starting QB. Losing Evans really hurts this team. I look for the Stamps to build off last week's dominating win at Edmonton and get another big road win here. Note that Hamilton is still over-valued because of their success in the 2019 season. This Ti-Cats team simply is not the same team right now. They are likely to struggle to score points here. 10* CALGARY +2.5 |
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09-16-21 | Giants +3.5 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
NFL 10* Top Play New York Giants +3.5 - Remember at the end of last season when the Eagles former head coach Doug Pederson seemingly surrendered the last game of the season when it was very important to the Giants playoff chances? That game did not directly involve New York but it did directly involve Washington and it ended up handing the NFC East title to the Football Team rather than the Giants. Soon New York will have their chance at payback over the Eagles but, first things first, the Giants get a shot at the team that took the NFC East title over them last year. I like New York's chances to get some payback here! Washington will have their #2 QB going here as Heinicke gets the start because Fitzpatrick going to be out some time now with a hip injury. He will probably miss 6 to 8 weeks and Heinicke is now the guy. Though he has shown some flashes of strong play he is still rather inexperienced at the NFL level and there is a reason coach Ron Rivera had selected Fitzpatrick as the starter of course. Look for the Giants defense to force some errors on Heinicke's part in this one. Both teams off losses last week but Washington was statistically dominated while the stats differential in the Giants game showed slimmer margins. I also like the fact that New York has won 5 straight games over Washington and look for that to reach 6 in a row here. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS +3.5 |
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09-16-21 | Ohio v. UL-Lafayette -20 | Top | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
NCAAF 10* Top Play Louisiana -20 - The Bobcats are a mess as long-time veteran head coach Frank Solich stepping down over the summer really seemed to hurt this program. While Tim Albin already was with the program, the head coaching experience here is new to him and Ohio University has really struggled. After a season-opening home loss to Syracuse by a 20 point margin the Bobcats should have been ready to respond. The fact they then lost again at home, and this time to an FCS program, speaks volumes about the state of this team right now. Certainly I also know that UL Lafayette did not look good last week and were also facing an FCS opponent. However, the difference is that the Ragin' Cajuns came into this season as a ranked team and were off a demoralizing loss at Texas to open the season. Louisiana was still getting over that defeat when they barely edged Nicholls State last week. That said, I look for ULL to finally play a complete game here and they will not take their foot off the gas here. The Bobcats have been particularly bad on defense early this season and ULL will pound away all game long. Also, Ohio U only scored 9 points in their only game against an FBS school this season. The stats of the ULL game at Texas show that the Cajuns were not as bad as the final score shows. That being said, we truly have value here even with this big number. I expect the home team to win by 4 to 5 touchdowns in this one as the Bobcats continue to suffer some early season growing pains under Albin. 10* LOUISIANA -20 |
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09-15-21 | Brewers -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -131 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
9* Top Play Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -130 - The Brewers lost yesterday in an unexpected 1-0 extra-innings battle. That made no sense based on the pitching match-up and the way those two starters had been pitching. That said, look for reality to return this afternoon. Brandon Woodruff has a 2.48 ERA in his 27 starts this season. Matt Manning has a 6.13 ERA in his 14 starts this season. In the last road start Woodruff made, he allowed 1 earned run in 6 innings. In the last home start Manning made, he allowed 8 earned runs in less than 4 innings of work. Brewers 49-25 on the road this season. Tigers have been a decent team this season but this one set up to be a complete mismatch and a road rout should result. 9* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -130 |
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09-14-21 | Cubs v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
MLB 10* Top Play Philadelphia Run Line -1.5 +100 - The Phillies offering great line value here. I know Kyle Gibson has struggled last two starts but both were on the road. Between his time with both the Rangers and Phillies this season, Texas and Philadelphia went 10-1 in his 11 home starts. Gibson has a 7-1 record this season pitching has a host with a fantastic 1.59 ERA. He has pitched very well at Citizens Ball Park since coming to Philly. As for the Cubs, they have lost 3 straight and 4 of last 5 and those games were at home. On the road this season Chicago has a 26-43 record and I am expecting another blowout road loss here. The Cubs are 32-52 this season against teams with a winning record. Adrian Sampson has good numbers this season but in limited action. This is a guy who is 6-14 with a 5.37 ERA in his 47 career MLB games (22 starts). Phillies still very much alive in the playoff race and yesterday's off-day will prove to serve them well here as Gibson and his teammates bounce back big at home. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 runs +100 |
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09-13-21 | Ravens -4 v. Raiders | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
NFL 10* Top Play BALTIMORE -4 - Way back in May when the NFL schedules first came out, the Ravens were in the range of a full TD favorite. Now the line is down to a -4. I'll take it! Defense wins football games. Take a look at the results so far in Week 1 to gauge what I am telling you. The teams that allowed 16 points or less went 10-0. Only one of the wins was by less than a 4 point margin by the way. But what about teams that score real well. Surely they do perfectly well also, right? Actually you would be surprised. There were 5 teams that scored 21 points or more and still lost their games. Those 5 teams averaged 27.2 points per game. That is not a bad scoring average but, as you can see, it is still defense that wins the games. Now look at this match-up. The Ravens are known for having huge preseasons and then opening the new season with a week one win in blowout fashion and I do not see this game being any different. Baltimore was one of the best defenses in the league last season. Las Vegas was one of the worst. The Raiders made some moves in the off-season to address their poor D but it will take some time for the units to jell on that side of the ball. I love the fact that the Ravens are on the road here because we get a much more favorable line. At home they would be a double digit favorite. Instead, on the road and because the betting public is enamored with the Las Vegas team being at home and having a potent offense, we get a low line of only -4. This one should be an absolute rout as the Raiders may hang around for awhile but this Ravens team too strong on both sides of the ball and that eventually wears down Vegas as this game goes on and the road fave should pull away for a win by a double digit margin. 10* BALTIMORE -4 |
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09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams -7.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams -7.5 - The Rams had the #1 defense in the NFL last season. The Bears and Rams had similar production on offense last season in terms of points per game but the Bears ranked 26th based on yardage while Los Angeles was 11th. Also, consider this key fact, Matthew Stafford is a gamer that played for a bad Lions team for years. The new Rams QB comes from Detroit where the Lions register double digits in losses year after year. Now he comes to LA where the Rams have averaged double digits in wins the last 3 years. Stafford could truly excel now on a much better team and this Bears defense is "okay" but still a little suspect in my mind. They are definitely not on the Rams level. That being said, you have the better defense and better offense and the much better overall team. Keep in mind Chicago is now going with Andy Dalton at QB. No disrespect to him as I have always felt he is a real gamer too but his best seasons are behind him. Coming to Chicago is not going to change his fortunes like Stafford going to the Rams will do. Dalton 30 tds and 22 ints last 2 seasons and one of those with a Cowboys team that had some talent. Look at Stafford's last 2 years, both with bad Lions teams, and he piled up a ton of yardage and threw for 45 td's against just 15 int's. This line is low as 7.5 which if you give the Rams say 3.5 points for home field edge that would mean the line is -4 on a neutral field. I feel, based on all the match-up edges here, LA is much better than 4 points in comparison with the Bears. I wish we could get -7 here of course but that won't happen but I am expecting the Chicago offense to struggle badly to score and that means Rams by 2 TDs in this one in my opinion so we still have great value here. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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09-12-21 | Rockies v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
MLB 10* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs -120 vs Colorado Rockies @ 1:05 ET - Momentum is huge in any sport and the clubhouse spirit will finally be much better in Philly than it has been. Not only did they get a much needed win yesterday to snap their losing skid, the Phillies also saw all the teams they are chasing each lose. The Braves, Reds, Padres all lost yesterday and so Philly picked up a game in both the divisional race and the race for the final wild card spot. Snapping their losing skid yesterday look for the Phillies to come up with another big win here. Wil grab the run line of course because Philadelphia is priced very high in this game so the money line is out of the question. But the run line should prove well worth it as the Rockies have been dreadful on the road this season and the Phillies have a huge pitching edge here. Colorado is 20-51 in road games this season and Feltner got destroyed in his first start of the season last Sunday against the Braves. As for Nola, though he has been up and down this season, he has been more consistent again at home this season. Solid 3.33 ERA at Citizens Bank Park plus a very impressive 0.99 WHIP at home. The Phillies are 5-0 in Nola starts versus Rockies and he has a 3.06 ERA in those 5 outings in his career. Keep in mind that includes outings at hitter-friendly Coors Field too. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -120 |
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09-12-21 | Seahawks v. Colts +3 | 28-16 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
NFL 8* Indianapolis Colts +3 - Generally speaking I like home dogs in the NFL. This is particularly true when that home dog is a well-coached solid football team. The Colts check all the boxes in that regard and I expect Carson Wentz, re-united with former Eagles OC Frank Reich (now HC of Colts) to enjoy solid success here. The thing is he is on a much better overall football team as the Eagles were trending the wrong way and have truly turned into a dysfunctional organization. If Wentz stays healthy, just watch what he does with the Colts long-term. Maybe he won't have his best game right out of the gate here but he does not have to have his A game here. The Colts are solid defensively and also can be strong with ground game and through the shorter passing attack. Definitely I have respect for the Seahawks but they have covered just 3 times in theirs last 14 road openers. Seattle was great at home last season but ATS but struggled on the road. In fact, if you took the home team in every Seahawks game last season you went 12-4 ATS with your bets! Statistically the Colts were the better team last season for overall offense, overall defense, and in terms of pass protection. I know Seattle ended up with the better record but you can see why I am seeing line value here especially with the line move. I'll grab the home dog that went from being a -3 in this match-up to a full 6-point swing the other way and they are now a 3-point dog. I'll take it! 8* INDIANAPOLIS |
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09-11-21 | Washington v. Michigan -6.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
10* Top Play Michigan -6.5 - The Wolverines lost star WR Bell to a season-ending injury last week but the situation at WR for the Huskies is much much worse right now! When you look at who was expected to be the top 3 wide receivers on the depth chart all 3 are out right now! Of the 2nd teamers another guy is out as well right now. No wonder QB Dylan Morris threw 3 picks last week. How can the Huskies be in sync on offense when all the guys they thought they would be relying on to catch the ball are all out? Making matters worse, last week's game was a home game for Washington and was against an FCS school. Now they go on the road to the Big House and take on a Wolverines team hell-bent on having a better season this year. Michigan already pounded out a win over Western Michigan last week. Yes that is a MAC school but it was an impressive win nonetheless and these Wolverines are much more in sync right now on both sides of the ball than the Huskies are. Keep in mind, Washington played only 4 games last season and that was with a first year coach. Compare that to coach Jim Harbaugh, who love him or hate him, is now in his 7th season in his current tenure as Michigan's head coach and he is now 50-22 after last week's win. The retooled coaching staff under him has already implemented some positive changes for this season and I look for this very hungry team to "bring it" again on Saturday night and win this game by a margin of 2 to 3 touchdowns as the Huskies problems in the passing games are a major concern because they can not turn to the ground game for an alternative. Last week they were outgained 127 to 65 on the ground by Montana. The Wolverines only have Northern Illinois on deck so they were fully focused on this game as their toughest one in the first few contests of the season. That is bad news for Washington. This one gets ugly! 10* MICHIGAN -6.5 |
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09-11-21 | South Carolina v. East Carolina +2.5 | 20-17 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
8* East Carolina +2.5 - The Pirates opened up as a 2.5 point favorite here and have now swung around to being a 2.5 point dog. That is because they are facing a team from the might SEC. However, South Carolina is far from being a mighty team and just because they are in the SEC does not mean they go on the road and win this game. There are going to be struggles for the Gamecocks this season because they have a new head coach and new systems and they do not have much at the skill positions either. This East Carolina team is going to be much improved in their 3rd year under coach Houston. Pirates off 14-point loss but faced a respectable Appalachian State team on the road. The Gamecocks are off a 46-0 win, albeit against FCS opponent Eastern Illinois. The point is that the pubic is all over the SEC school in this match-up and you look at last week's results and it makes it seem the odds makers do not know what they are doing here. Long time followers know how I feel about that! A lot of respect for the odds makers and they had it right when they had the Pirates favored in this one. I am fading the line move and taking advantage of the line value. 8* EAST CAROLINA +2.5 |
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09-10-21 | Hamilton +3 v. Toronto | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
10* Top Play HAMILTON +3 - The Tiger-Cats were the top team in the East last season and went all the way to the Grey Cup Game where they fell short against Winnipeg. This Hamilton team is still being undervalued by the markets. Yes they started the season 0-2 with a pair of losses out west against teams known for being very strong at home. However, the Tiger-Cats have responded by winning two straight games in divisional action and now here is their chance to start creating some separation in the division. Right now things are very tight in the division and I know Toronto wants revenge here because of the loss last week at Hamilton. However, revenge is over-valued and the Argos still are too mistake-prone and not quite on the level of this Ti-Cats team just yet. 10* HAMILTON +3 |
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09-10-21 | Kansas +26.5 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 22-49 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
10* KANSAS +26.5 - I know the Jayhawks have been a horrible team but Lance Leopold is a great coach. Granted he got a late start with this team as he was hired later than most new coaches are hired coming into a season. However, he is still - especially with help of coaching staff he brought over from Buffalo - going to get more out of this team than his predecessors have been getting here. They did struggled to run the ball against an FCS foe last week but I like how the defense performed. I also like the fact that, even as bad as the Jayhawks have been the last two seasons, they won the yardage battle against Coastal Carolina last season and the yardage battle was nearly equal in the 12-7 loss the year before that. The point is that there is not such a great separation between these programs as you would be led to believe by the huge spread posted on this game. I look for the Jayhawks to still lose this game by a couple touchdowns but that still gives us some cushion with this line at nearly four touchdowns! This team is going to play hard for Leopold and his staff and last week's game against an FCS foe was a good chance for the team to work through some early season issues. No overnight miracles here with these Jayhawks but I expect a competitive effort here and feel the Chanticleers will also be content to turn to their ground game and just start running clock once they do have a big lead. 10* KANSAS +26.5 |
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09-09-21 | Cowboys +8 v. Bucs | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 36 h 53 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #451 Thursday 10* Top Play Dallas Cowboys +8 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:20 ET - As long-time followers know, being a contrarian is ingrained into my long-term handicapping skillsets. That said, there is no sport more so than NFL where being a contrarian is a huge key to long-term success. I have also talked before about the sharpness of odds makers and about trusting their numbers in plenty of situations. Odds makers are known for being particularly sharp in the NFL and this is one of those cases where I am putting particularly strong faith in their numbers. Roll back the calendar 7 months ago and just imagine if the Super Bowl was on a neutral field and imagine if it was possible for two NFC teams to square off for the title and it was the 5-11 Cowboys against the 11-5 Bucs. Now make a line. Would your line have been -3? Of course not! Yet take a look at this now in the opening game of 2021. I could be proven wrong but I don't think I will but this could be the biggest "trap line" set in a long time. I am not a believe that the odds makers set trap lines on purpose. I am just saying when something looks "off" it generally fools the public and it is the sharps that end up cashing in. So back to that -3. When lines first opened on this game, and keep in mind the Bucs have all 22 starters back, the first number was a -6 in mid-May. Since this game is being played in TB that line is telling you the Bucs would only be a 3-point favorite on a neutral field. So now, according to the betting masses, the books have it all wrong. This line has been bet up to as high as an 8.5 and the odds makers just do not know what their doing. I am saying they did know what they are doing and the Cowboys are going to be a much improved team this season. The Bucs are, of course, still the better team but I look for this game to be decided by just a single score. Note that last season Dallas was without Prescott for 11 games and it was a disaster season in Dallas. This team will be much improved in year two under coach McCarthy. As for the Bucs, look for them to get caught being a little too "fat and happy" after last year's glorious season where everything seemingly broke their way for a clear path to the SB title. The Cowboys will punch them in the mouth a bit in this game and it will be a lot more competitive than most people are thinking. Keep in mind Tampa Bay went just 4-3 their last 7 home games last season and one of the wins was by 7 points and, overall, only 5 of the Buccaneers final 12 games (including playoffs) leading into their Super Bowl victory was a win by more than 8 points. Just a lot of value after the line move with this one and the odds makers had it right in my opinion so we'll happily grab the value on the other side in typical NFL contrarian style. 10* DALLAS |
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09-08-21 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #926 Wednesday 10* Top Play Arizona Diamondbacks Run Line -1.5 runs +130 vs Texas Rangers @ 3:40 ET - The Diamondbacks have lost 9 of 10 while the Rangers have won 6 of 9 and yet Arizona is favored as high as -165 on the money line as of very early gameday morning. Big mistake, right? Not at all but rather than laying that kind of price range, I am turning this around to a +130 payback by taking the Diamondbacks on the run line. Note that no team in MLB has fewer one-run wins than Arizona. In other words, if you like them to win, you generally come out much better laying the 1.5 runs with this team. 37 of their 45 wins have been by 2+ runs! As for the Rangers, 69 of their 88 losses have been by 2+ runs this season. The key in this one is the pitching match-up as Kohei Arihara has a 6.19 ERA this season while Luke Weaver, another starter who just came back to the rotation (like Arihara), is 3-0 with a 1.32 ERA in his home starts this season. Also, Weaver looked great in his first start back. The home team dominates after yesterday's putrid performance. 10* ARIZONA -1.5 runs +130 |
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09-06-21 | Louisville +10 v. Ole Miss | Top | 24-43 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #225 Monday 10* Top Play Louisville Cardinals (+) vs Ole Miss Rebels @ 8 ET - I have plenty of respect for the coordinators for the Rebels but they could have their hands full without their head coach (Lane Kiffin covid) here and facing a Cardinals team that is on a mission for big improvement under head coach Scott Satterfield this season. The key about the Rebels is they have a very bad defense. The Cards are going to score points here. The other thing is that, is a good as that Ole Miss offense is, I expect the Rebels to get caught trying to do a little too much here. What I mean by that is mistakes offensively because, without Kiffin on the sidelines, the play-calling will not be quite the same. There will be pressure on offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby to call a great gameplan here but will this hurt the rhythm of the offense? Keep in mind Rebels QB Matt Corral had some great numbers last season but if you look at their non-home games last season (this is a neutral site match-up) the Rebels went just 3-2 and two of the three wins were by 6 or less points with one of the wins in OT. Also, Corral threw 11 of his 14 interceptions on the season in two of those road games - at Arkansas and LSU. The road game that was an OT win was at Kentucky. The other tight win was the bowl game against Indiana. We all just saw the Hoosiers get smoked by Iowa Saturday. As for Arky, LSU, and Kentucky - none of the 3 teams had a winning record last season! I am not saying the Rebels will not win this game but I feel hanging onto any type of margin will prove difficult. The porous Ole Miss defense also gives the Cardinals great backdoor cover potential should we need it. Tremendous respect for the Rebels capabilities on offense but also note that Louisville had the #1 pass rated defense in the ACC last season and ranked 17th nationally as they allowed only 189.2 yards per game through the air. This game should be a battle all the way to the end. Grab the big points. 10* LOUISVILLE +10 |
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09-06-21 | Edmonton Elks +6 v. Calgary | Top | 32-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
ESPNews Network Rout - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #677 Monday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +6 @ Calgary Stampeders @ 4:30 ET - The Stampeders have played the tougher schedule. Also, they are at home for this rivalry game. However, there is plenty of reason to like the Elks in this one. I know their schedule has been a little weaker but in their 30-13 loss to Montreal the yardage was nearly equal. In their other two games they outgained their opponents by about 250 yards in one and 300 yards in the other. It is very hard to ignore domination like that and I like Edmonton getting 6 points here considering how tough their defense has been too this season. The Elks D has a lot of confidence right now and this offense actually averaging more yardage per game than any other team in the CFL. That said, love fading the line move here too as it went from an early opener of 3 to now as high as 6.5 for this Monday afternoon match-up. The Stampeders are a better team than their record shows but, still, they will have their hands full here. Also, with their #2 QB playing well but the #1 QB now coming back from injury, could this disrupt the chemistry on offense? I say yes it will and the Stamps will struggle just to win this game let alone cover the sizable spread. Elks off a bye week afforded by covid and they won their game solidly before the bye and were strong both on the ground and through the air and the defense does a great job with its pass rush. There is a lot to like in Edmonton right now but they are flying under the radar because of their 1-2 record. Grab the generous points. 10* EDMONTON |
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09-06-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
Perfection Play - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 -120 @ St Louis Cardinals @ 4:15 ET - The Dodgers are off a loss last night as Walker Buehler had a rare bad start at San Francisco. Look for a dominating effort from Max Scherzer to put them right back into the win column. The only thing I do not like about this play is it a day game in a back to back spot and the Dodgers had to travel east for it after playing on Sunday Night baseball last night. However, their game was a 4 PM local time start yesterday in San Francisco and so the travel situation really not all that bad. As for Scherzer, he is 4-0 with a dominating 1.29 ERA i his 6 starts since coming to the Dodgers! He also has held the Cardinals scoreless over 13 innings while striking out 20 in his last two starts against them including one this season! He'll be opposed by Miles Mikolas for St Louis. The Cardinals right-hander is off back to back starts in which he has allowed a total of 7 earned runs in a total of only 7 and 1/3 innings on the mound. Now facing a Dodgers lineup in bounce back mode, I do not expect this start to go well at all for Mikolas. Also, the Cardinals have to be feeling very "defeated" mentally after blowing a 5-1 ninth inning lead at Milwaukee yesterday. That is a crushing loss for a team chasing a playoff spot. The Dodgers, supported by the brilliance of Scherzer, take full advantage. 10* LOS ANGELES DODGERS Run Line -1.5 -120 |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State +7 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
Money Line Marquee - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #224 Sunday 10* Top Play Florida State Seminoles Money Line +240 vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 7:30 ET - No points needed here. We already saw a few upsets in Week 1 of CFB involving top 25 teams and we are going to see another one here in my opinion. This game is the chance to put Florida State back on the map in College Football. Why are they are only a TD underdog to a team that went 10-0 in the ACC regular season last year while the Seminoles went 2-6 in ACC action? Precisely! This Notre Dame team, of course, is still going to be a quality team this season. However, the Fighting Irish had so much turnover from last season's team. Particularly concerning are major losses on offense and they lost nearly their entire offensive line. That is bad news against a Seminoles defense hell-bent on playing much better this season. They added some key players through the transfer portal and this FSU defense is going to be much better this season. At home, with the nationally televised cameras rolling and being the only game on the big board, watch the Noles step up very big here and shock an over-rated Notre Dame team still living off last year's successes. This team is really a shell of its former self and is going to be knocked off right away here in game one. The Seminoles have a different look and different attitude coming into this season and have two quarterbacks available now with returning starter Jordan Travis and senior transfer McKenzie Milton both an option to start. ND has a new defensive coordinator who certainly comes in with a strong resume (was with Cincinnati!) but the loss of Clark Lea at DC and some key players on the defensive side of the ball that spearheaded the D before could certainly hurt. Keep in mind, in the first year under FSU head coach Mike Norvell, there were a lot of leftover players from the Fisher and Taggart days. A lot of those players, many unhappy, were dragging down the ship last season. Those guys are gone and there is a lot of strong talent happy to be here that is ready to step right in. I feel the Noles are going to surprise here in week one right away and Notre Dame lost more than half their starters from last year! Upset alert! 10* FLORIDA STATE +240 |
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09-05-21 | A's v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
AL RL Game of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #966 Sunday 10* Top Play Toronto Blue Jays Run Line -1.5 runs +100 vs Oakland A's @ 1:07 ET - Robbie Ray is on incredible run right now while Cole Irvin is struggling badly. Of course that is a big part of the reason the Blue Jays are a 2 to 1 money line favorite here. Where we get the value is by playing the run line as Toronto is available as low as even money by laying the 1.5 runs! This should certainly be a home blowout and note that 59 of the Blue Jays 72 wins this season have been by two or more runs! Ray has allowed just 9 earned runs in his last 7 starts spanning 47 innings! Also, he has struck out 35 batters in 22 innings in his last 3 starts! Ray is in top current form. As for Irvin, he is definitely at the other end of the spectrum. The Athletics left-hander has a 5.93 ERA his last 3 starts and he is fortunate that is not even higher! Irvin has a 2.12 WHIP in his last 3 starts. That means 2 baserunners per inning on average and he has 8 walks against only 3 strikeouts in his last 3 starts! This looks like a complete pitching mismatch plus Oakland has just 6 wins last 19 games while the Jays have won 6 of their last 7 games! 10* TORONTO -1.5 runs +100 |
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09-04-21 | LSU -2.5 v. UCLA | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
Bulldog's Best - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #213 Saturday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers -2.5 @ UCLA @ 8:30 ET - The Bruins have the edge of a game under their belt. Trouble is that game was against a Hawaii team that certainly did not look too good! This is the same UCLA team that only had 3 wins last season and the teams they beat went a combined 3-10 for the season. I still do not trust the Bruins QB against top tier competition. UCLA head coach Chip Kelly is going to have to prove to me that he can win a big game like this before I would hesitate to fade him. His Bruins just are not quite ready and this Tigers team comes into this game angry. Remember they just won the national championship but now are coming off a disappointing 5-5 season. Their defense was bad and they can not wait to make up for that. The process of the turnaround begins right here in Pasadena in Game One of the season and this highly talented SEC team goes on the road and makes a statement in their first game of the season. Love the fact that the line opened up in the -5 range over the summer but now is a -2.5 on gameday morning. We are getting great value here and keep in mind LSU projected to have a big bounce back season in a very tough SEC while the Bruins also play in a solid conference for sure but still UCLA nowhere close to the top tier programs like Oregon and USC in the Pac-12. Most of the rest of that conference nowhere close to SEC level and we have got great value with the Tigers here because everyone still remembering their disappointing campaign last season. 10* LSU -2.5 |
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09-04-21 | Temple +14.5 v. Rutgers | 14-61 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 3 m | Show | |
NOTE: Match-up now going EARLY Saturday instead of Thursday EVENING so the write-up below just slightly modified for the schedule change: Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #229 Saturday 8* Temple Owls (+) @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ NOON ET - The Scarlet Knights were about an 11 point favorite when lines first were released on this match-up. Now Rutgers is favored by 14.5 points as of very early Friday morning. I am grabbing the points with Temple. Since 2014 (the last season Rutgers went to a bowl) the Scarlet Knights have only two wins over an FBS school by more than 11 points. Those two wins were over UMass in 2019 and Texas State in 2018. Annually those are two of the worst football programs in the country. Now I am well aware of the fact that the Owls are certainly not a football factory by any stretch of the imagination. However, Temple was one of the teams most hurt by the covid-19 restrictions last season and have a relatively new head coach compared to Greg Schiano who was beginning his 2nd stint with the Scarlet Knights after already spending a decade here through 2011. The Owls head coach is Rod Carey who was only in his 2nd season here at Temple after 7 years as head coach at Northern Illinois. The Owls have enough skill and athleticism on offense to keep this game closer than many are expecting. Temple is also strong enough in the trenches to go "punch for punch" with a physical Scarlet Knights team. This game will play out as a bit of a war and I really expect the Knights to struggle to pull away and expect this game to be decided by just a one score margin. Great value with this line moving past the +14 key number. 8* TEMPLE +14.5 |
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09-03-21 | Michigan State v. Northwestern -3 | Top | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #154 Friday 10* Top Play Northwestern Wildcats (-) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 9 PM ET - The earliest numbers that came out on this game showed the oddsmakers set Northwestern as a 7.5 point favorite and the Cats now are all the way down to a -3 as of very early Friday morning. That means the betting markets are saying these teams are even on a neutral field and the Wildcats are essentially still getting the normal 3 points teams are often considered to have as a home field edge. I am not buying that. The Wildcats lost last season's game with the Spartans courtesy of 4 turnovers. It was their only loss of the regular season and is the first time in nearly a decade that they have lost back to back meetings with Michigan State. Northwestern will get some payback here. First off they are extremely well coached and have an excellent coaching staff put together. Secondly they are a system based team. They can not get the same talent that the bigger Big Ten schools are able to attract and bring in with their top recruits but it is their systems, smarts, hard work, and execution that make them a tough team. The problem with Michigan State (my pick to battle Rutgers for the worst spot in the Big Ten East) is that they have a head coach (Tucker) in his 3rd year overall as a head coach (2nd year with the Spartans) and he is trying to implement his systems but with many veteran players left over that were Dantonio recruits. The Spartans only other win last season, other than upsetting the Wildcats, was winning their annual biggest game of the year (versus rival Michigan). Other than that the Spartans had 5 losses and were outscored by a combined 202 to 70. Yes that works out to an average score of 40 to 14. I am not necessarily expecting that big of a margin here but this one will get ugly for Michigan State fans. The Spartans may get better as the season goes on but this team still trying to adjust to Tucker and his systems. 10* NORTHWESTERN -3 |
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09-03-21 | Montreal v. Ottawa +7.5 | Top | 51-29 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
East Div GAME OF THE MONTH - Rickenbach CFL Friday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks +7.5 vs Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - These teams have traditionally played on Labour Day weekend in Canada for many years. The games are almost always tight. The odds makers know this too. This line opened up at a 2.5 and yet has been driven all the way up to a 7.5 and that means it is "go time" with the Redblacks in this one. Tremendous home dog value here. The offense looked much better for Ottawa last week in what was their first home game of the season. They should build off that performance this week and have much more in the way of points on the scoreboard to show for it. Montreal is simply over-valued here. This is particularly true when you consider they will be without a key O-lineman and key D-lineman in this game. The Alouettes have been a pleasant surprise early this season but this is a rivalry game and they are on the road and the Redblacks are showing signs of turning the corner. I will gladly grab the generous points being offered to the home dog in this one. 10* OTTAWA +7.5 |
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09-02-21 | A's -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Thursday 10* Top Play Oakland A's Run Line -1.5 runs +100 @ Detroit Tigers @ 1:10 ET - The A's have moved up Frankie Montas to start today's game and that is bad news for the Tigers. Montas has been in phenomenal form since the All Star break with a 2.16 ERA and holding opponents to a .203 BAA. Montas also is 4-2 with a 2.52 ERA in day game starts this season. He'll be opposed by Matt Manning of the Tigers in this one. The Detroit right-hander does have a lower ERA in the 2nd half of the season than he did in the 1st half but he has been quite fortunate. Manning got hit at a .330 clip in August and yet had a 5.23 ERA. As a result of some good fortune, he enters this start with a 3.24 ERA his last 3 starts. This is helping to give us some line value here with Oakland because Manning's stuff is still very hittable and the A's have averaged 5 runs per game last 6 games and had won 3 in a row before yesterday's 8-6 loss. That Tigers win was a rare offensive explosion as Detroit entered Wednesday's game averaging just 2 runs scored per game their last half dozen contests. Look for normalcy to return today and the Tigers resume their losing ways. Detroit had lost 4 straight prior to yesterday's win. Also, the Tigers are 38-50 against right-handers this season and the Athletics are 18-8 against AL Central division opponents this season. 53 of 71 Tigers losses by 2+ runs and 54 of 73 Oakland wins by 2+ runs this season. Those season-long trends continue with a road rout today! 10* OAKLAND Run Line -1.5 runs +100 |
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09-01-21 | UAB -15 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 31-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 60 m | Show |
ESPN Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #907 Wednesday 10* Top Play UAB Blazers -15 vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks @ 7:30 ET - The Blazers are a strong CUSA team. The Gamecocks are a solid program but are an FCS team. This is a step up in class for them. Remember last year Jacksonville State faced Florida State and jumped out to a 14-0 lead partially benefitting from an INT return for a touchdown. The Seminoles, who only won two other games last season by the way, stormed back for a blowout win. This UAB team is rock solid on both sides of the ball and very strong in the trenches. The Blazers defense looks particularly solid this season. As for the strength along the O-line and D-line that is where UAB will get the keys to this victory. Jacksonville State does have a solid QB, he was formerly a back-up at Clemson, but if his teammates are getting beat everywhere else on the field there is not much he can do. UAB begins the season with 4 games away from home (this is a neutral site game) so I expect them to be fully focused here and am expecting them to wear down Jacksonville State as this game goes on. The Blazers can wear teams down on the ground and the Gamecocks might be able to hang around in the first half but eventually UAB is just too strong and has the big talent edge and will eventually pull away and win this game by 20+ in my opinion. 10* UAB Blazers -15 |
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08-30-21 | Phillies -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
NL East Game of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs -100 @ Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - When you look at Zach Wheeler's ERA last 3 starts and then Josiah Gray's ERA last 3 starts, the money line in the -170 range posted on this game would not make sense to you. However, Wheeler was left in his last start too long and has been fantastic this season. This looks like the perfect spot for him to bounce right back. The Phillies are 6-1 at Washington this season. Also, Philadelphia has some momentum heading into this game after taking 3 straight from the Diamondbacks. As for the Nationals, they have been heading the wrong direction for quite some time now. Yesterday's loss dropped Washington to 2-6 last 8 games. Also, the Nats have lost 18 of 24 games. 7 of Washington's last 9 losses have been by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Phillies have scored 7 runs in 4 straight games and also scored 7 runs in most recent road games. The Nationals only had 3 hits yesterday and have scored an average of just 3.6 runs per game last 7 games. The Phillies in a road rout in this one as Wheeler comes up big and Gray gets hit hard as the road team is getting a 2nd look at the young hurler - 1st start against them 4 weeks ago. 10* Philadelphia Run Line -1.5 +100 |
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08-29-21 | Calgary v. Winnipeg -6.5 | Top | 16-18 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #686 Sunday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers -6.5 vs Calgary Stampeders @ 7 ET - I really like Jake Maier for Calgary at QB and he got much better as last week's game went on after a rough early start. That showed resilience and he also showed a lot of grit and determination in the 28-22 win versus Montreal. However, the back-up QB now goes on the road and he faces a very tough and physical Winnipeg defense which also is angry off their first loss of the season - at Toronto - last week. Keep in mind, the Blue Bombers are the defending champs and this defense allowed only 13 points total in its first two games this season. Those were at at home and this game is too and the Winnipeg defense bounces back. Also, I am looking for a huge game from the offense as well as they are expected to get a boost with the return of Andrew Harris at RB. He is a fantastic running back and, overall, one of the best players in the league at any position. All signs pointing to a home blowout here! 10* WINNIPEG -6.5 |
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08-29-21 | Rays -1.5 v. Orioles | Top | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
NOTE: I do not care who pitches here. If you have access to books that take all MLB plays as action on the pitchers that would be my best advice here. If you can not bet this play with action, I would recommend to re-bet it prior to game time (if sufficient time allows) if there would happen to be a pitching change in the hours leading up to game time. I will explain why in my write-up here: AL Run Line Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Sunday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Run Line -1.5 -140 @ Baltimore Orioles @ 1:05 ET - This play is based on the teams not the pitchers. Certainly Archer rates a massive edge over Watkins and I will talk about that here. However, here you have a Rays team with the much better overall pitching staff so who cares if Archer does not start here or is limited by his hip? Who cares if Watkins does not start either? Who else do the Orioles have available that would strike fear into the Rays hitters? Exactly! This is one is all about a Rays team that is now 17-1 this season against the Orioles including 8-0 at Baltimore. Yesterday's win was by just a single run margin but I am expecting a road blowout here as Means gave a surprisingly good start yesterday. Watkins has a 16.20 ERA in his last 3 starts and has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts versus TB. Archer just coming back from injury and now dealing with a hip ailment but has looked strong on the mound and piled up strikeouts in his limited action. Prior to yesterday's 1-run win, the Rays last 15 wins ALL were by 2+ runs! Look for this one to resume that trend as the Orioles season of misery continues. 10* TAMPA BAY RAYS Run Line -1.5 runs -140 |
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08-28-21 | Ravens v. Washington Football Team +3.5 | 37-3 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #114 Saturday 8* Washington Football Team +3.5 vs Baltimore Ravens @ 6 ET - The Ravens have won 19 straight preseason games to tie an NFL record set by, of course, Vince Lombardi's Packers. While I know Baltimore head coach Harbaugh has a special hunger for winning and would like to win this game, he will not risk injury to key players in doing so. That said, and in typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing the points with Washington. Keep in mind that, based on the +3.5 available as of early game day morning, the Ravens could win this game and yet we still get the cash. Statistically Washington has been better than expected in the preseason and that is even with allowing a very late 91 yard TD run in their first game of the preseason. In fact, had that "meaningless" run not happened in the final minute of a game the Patriots were winning by 2 points, Washington would have some of the best defensive stats in the entire league in this preseason. Either way, Washington has looked quite solid on both sides of the ball statistically and I feel strongly that they will be tough to put away here. Keep in mind they are 1-1 in this preseason and the loss would have been by just 2 points were it not for that big late run. Also, the Ravens first win in the preseason was by just 3 points and, if you have noticed recently, there have been an awful lot of late comebacks for dogs. It is just hard to cover numbers in the preseason and I like siding with the points and feel we have extra value here because the home dog has been solid this preseason and is going to give the Ravens all they can handle here. I say the Baltimore streak ends here but I will grab the points as added insurance just in case. 8* WASHINGTON +3.5 |
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08-28-21 | Nebraska -7 v. Illinois | Top | 22-30 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #299 Saturday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers -7 @ Illinois Illini @ 1 ET - Certainly Bret Bielema at head coach is an upgrade over Lovie Smith at head coach for Illinois. However, that improvement is going to take some time to show up on the field. It will not be overnight and this is simply not a very good football team. I am certainly not high on Nebraska either. But, as it stands right now, this Cornhuskers team is certainly superior to the Illini. Additionally, they are out for revenge from an embarrassing home loss to Illinois last season. I also love the way we have seen the line react on this game. It opened up at nearly double digits and yet has since dropped to as low as a 6.5 but then every time it gets down to 6.5 the Huskers get market attention and it goes right back to 7. So, as of overnight Friday heading into Saturday what I am telling you is as follows: The Huskers opened up as a big road favorite for a reason. The odds makers are not stupid. The line dropping to 6.5 from nearly 10 but then always getting bet back to 7 is an indication that many believe, just as I do that, that the Cornhuskers win this game by at least 7 points and I am expecting a win by a double digit margin. The Huskers and Illini return plenty of defensive starters. I know the Nebraska offense is not a strength, especially through the air, but lets go back to those defenses for a minute. The Illini return plenty of guys but allowed 35 points per game and ranked as one of the worst defenses in the nation for yardage allowed. As for the Huskers, other than the Illini debacle and getting destroyed (like most teams do) by Ohio State, they allowed only 24 points per game in their other 6 games and never allowed more than 27 in any of those other 6 games. Do not be surprised if the better defense prevails in a big way in this match-up. Even including the beatdown against Ohio State in their numbers, the Huskers defense ranked 50th nationally in yardage allowed out of 130 teams. The Illini did NOT face Ohio State last year and still ranked 115th nationally in yardage allowed. The Huskers have their problems, but they are the better overall team and they have not forgotten what happened last year in Lincoln either. There is no better way to avenge a home loss than by getting payback on enemy turf and returning the favor. I fully expect the Cornhuskers to get their revenge in Champaign on Saturday. 10* NEBRASKA -7 |
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08-23-21 | Jaguars +4 v. Saints | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFLX 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars +4 @ New Orleans Saints @ 8 ET - The more I looked at this game the more I liked it. The Jaguars have a bad recent preseason history but keep in mind they now have a new coach with Urban Meyer calling the shots. This team is hungry to improve and they certainly played a "cleaner" game last week than the Saints did. Yes both teams are off losses but Jacksonville turned the ball over just once while New Orleans had 6 turnovers in their game against the Ravens. The overall trajectory of these teams is going opposite directions. Of course I am not saying that in a regular season game the Jags are better than the Saints. I am not saying that all. But the point is that the Saints were 12-4 last season but Drew Brees has retired and this team lost a lot of defensive talent from last year's roster. This team will be on the decline this season. As for the Jaguars, off a 1-15 season, of course the only way to go is up but truly this team could be respectable this season and had a strong draft and there is some positive energy within this Jacksonville organization right now. With how sloppy New Orleans was last week, I feel we have a good shot at an outright upset here for the Jaguars and I certainly like the value with the points. Keep in mind, we have seen a good amount of upsets in week 2 of the preseason as well as some underdog ATS covers without notching the upset. Good value here getting a handful of points given all of the above. 10* JACKSONVILLE +4 |
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08-22-21 | Tottenham Hotspur v. Wolverhampton Wanderers +0.25 | 1-0 | Loss | -121 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Early Goal Line - Rickenbach EPL Sunday 8* Wolverhampton +0.5 goal vs Tottenham @ 9 AM ET - Tottenham off the huge opening week win 1-0 over Manchester City. After beating the champions now the Spurs are on the road and have to face a Wolverhampton club that will be chomping at the bit to get into the win column. Even though the Wanderers lost last week's match 1-0 they were quite impressive for long stretches against Leicester City and I expect a huge performance this week from the Wolves. This is all about the set-up and the line value. With catching Tottenham off such a huge win and now getting a home dog that will cash our ticket with either a win or draw, the value here is too good to pass up on. I like the way the Wolves are responding under new head coach Bruno Lage. 8* Wolverhampton +0.5 goal |
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08-21-21 | Winnipeg v. Toronto +3.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - CFL 10* Toronto Argonauts +3.5 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 4 ET - Look for a strong effort from the Argos here as they play their home opener. They lost at Winnipeg last week so they will take advantage of this shot at revenge right away this week. The Argonauts did get a boost in the game when they made a QB switch and I expect that to wake up the team and give them some momentum for this week's rematch. The Blue Bombers were already down RB Harris but now also lost WR Demski to injury. Things are starting to catch up with this Winnipeg offense and the Argos did do a solid job defensively last week and could be even stronger this week in their home opener in my opinion. That said, value with the home dog in this one. The Blue Bombers did open up as a TD favorite here and are now in the range of a FG but this line move was fully justified based on the Winnipeg injury issues and the fact that the home dog is a revenge-minded one that had some positives to pull from last week's game for sure. 10* TORONTO +3.5 |
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08-21-21 | Bills +4.5 v. Bears | Top | 41-15 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
Earliest Dominator - NFLX 10* Buffalo Bills +4.5 @ Chicago Bears @ 1 ET - Both teams off wins last week and Chicago did win by 7 while Buffalo won by just 1. However, I was impressed by the Bills defense too and note that they have now won 6 straight preseason games. They opened up as the favorite in this match-up in the early lines but are now a 4.5 point dog. Maybe, after a 6-0 SU win, the Bills do finally drop an NFLX game but that does not mean they do not cover. Many NFLX games are tight and, in fact, Chicago entered this season 3-6 SU the last 2 preseasons and 1 of the wins was by just a single point. The fact is there is too much value here regardless of the plan of how coaches use starters here, etc. Buffalo is the better team and has better depth and that will key the victory in crunch time as the Bills get the job done here. 10* BUFFALO +4.5 |
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08-20-21 | Montreal v. Calgary +5.5 | Top | 22-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
ESPN+ Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #674 Friday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders +5.5 vs Montreal Alouettes @ 9:30 ET - Some are surprised at who the starting QB is for Calgary here as they are going with the perceived #3 and letting the #2 serve as the back-up as the #1 guy Bo Levi Mitchell now out with an injury. However, the way I view this is that the Stampeders have seen some good things from the UC-Davis product and he is in line for a big game here. Love the line move as, because of Mitchell's injury, the line has gone from Calgary being about a 2-point favorite to now being a +5.5 dog. The Stampeders were great at home last season but now already off to an 0-2 start at home this season. In other words, the likelihood of them falling into an 0-3 start at home is slim odds in my opinion and I love having the big points. Yes Montreal is off a blowout win last week but the yardage was very nearly equal in their 30-13 win at Edmonton. I do respect the Alouettes but they are over-valued in this spot and the value is with the big home dog no matter who is at the pivot position for the hosts! 10* CALGARY +5.5 |
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08-20-21 | Chiefs v. Cardinals +3 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
ESPN Blowout Rout - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #404 Friday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8 ET - Both teams won by identical 19-16 scores last week but I like the fact that Arizona's came on a momentum-building last-second field goal. Also, the Cardinals are now getting 3 points as a home dog here. I know that Kansas City is planning to run their starters quite a bit in the first half of this game but this still a Chiefs team that had won just 1 of last 4 road preseason games prior to last week's tight win. It is the back-ups that often decide the final outcome of preseason games. Also, KC went just 1-3 overall in the most recent preseason. The Cardinals have now won 2 of last 3 preseason home games and offer solid value as an underdog here. Arizona proved last week they will push hard to win a preseason game and I look for them to get the job done again this week. If they do fall short the +3 could prove to be great value. 5 of the 16 games last week were decided by 3 or less points. 10* ARIZONA |
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08-19-21 | Edmonton Elks +4 v. BC | Top | 21-16 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
ESPN2 Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #671 Thursday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +4 @ BC Lions @ 10 ET - Statistically, the Elks have been much better than what has been reflected on the scoreboard the first two weeks. That is helping lead to line value here especially with Edmonton available at +4 in this one. The road team is a perfect 2-0 ATS in BC games this season and 2-0 SU/ATS in Elks games this season and I look for that trend to continue here but will grab the points as added insurance. Keep in mind, the Lions lost in Week 1 by just 4 points and Edmonton also lost in Week 1 by just a 4-point margin. 10* EDMONTON +4 |
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08-19-21 | Patriots v. Eagles +1.5 | Top | 35-0 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #402 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles +1.5 vs New England Patriots @ 7:30 ET - The Eagles blew a 13-0 late 1st half lead last week and lost 24-16 as they are outscored 24-3 the rest of the way. Philadelphia is likely to struggle in the regular season this year but keep in mind this is preseason. With a first year head coach who demands plenty from his players, I look for a much better effort this week after the ugly 2nd half last week for the Eagles. As for the Patriots, a long TD run is what sealed their victory last week as they were clinging a 2-point lead at the time. The key here is that other than that run, one could easily argue that Washington was the much better team in that game. The Pats, not including that long TD run, were outgained by 138 yards. New England is 1-2 SU/ATS the last 2 preseasons when off a home win and they allowed an average of 25.3 points per game in those 3 games. Look for them to struggle again on the road in that role here and the Eagles bounce back from last week's second half debacle. 10* PHILADELPHIA +1.5 |
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08-16-21 | Angels v. Yankees -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -124 | 16 h 53 m | Show | |
Rickenbach MLB Rotation #962 Monday 8* New York Yankees Run Line -1.5 -124 vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:05 ET - Cole is off a rough start in terms of earned runs allowed but continued to pile up strikeouts and I am confident he will bounce back here at home with a strong effort. He dominated the Red Sox in his most recent home start and has a 2.70 ERA at home on the season. Suarez starts for the Angels and he has a 6.91 ERA in his last 3 starts and plus the Angels are 2-4 in his starts this season. Los Angeles is off a win yesterday but had lost 6 of 8 games heading into Sunday and each of their last 11 defeats have been by a multi-run margin. That has me very comfortable with the run line here as the Yankees have won 12 of 16 games and 11 of last 13 New York victories have been by a multi-run margin. 8* NEW YORK YANKEES Run Line -1.5 -124 |
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08-15-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Mets | Top | 14-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Run Line Game of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 runs -100 @ New York Mets @ 7:08 ET - The Dodgers are without Mookie Betts but Justin Turner got back on the field yesterday and will likely be in the starting lineup tonight. If Betts was available of course this line would be even higher but I am taking advantage of the added line value here. The Dodgers are available at practically even money on the run line in this game and this is superb value in my opinion. The Dodgers have won 9 of 12 games. The Mets have lost 11 of 16. I know there have been some tight 1-run games included in these stretches for each team but I fully expect a blowout here. Carlos Carrasco is simply "not right" yet and he showed that again in his most recent rain-shortened start (he likely would have been pulled early) while Max Scherzer dominated in his most recent start which was also shortened by rain. Carrasco has a 6.75 ERA in his 3 starts and has been hit hard. Scherzer has a dominating 2.67 ERA on the season and a 1.65 ERA in his last 3 starts and continues to be a strikeout machine. Considering his strong current form and the fact that this is his first start against the Mets this season, look for New York's lineup to struggle badly as the strikeouts pile up and contact made is likely to be weak. 10* LOS ANGELES DODGERS Run Line -1.5 runs -100 |
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08-15-21 | Panthers v. Colts -3 | 18-21 | Push | 0 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Early Dominator - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #134 Sunday 8* Indianapolis Colts -3 vs Carolina Panthers @ 1 ET - Hopefully we will be losing this pick at halftime. All kidding aside, this has been an unreal start to the post-season as 3 of my 4 picks saw my team with the lead at halftime and the combined score in our favor in those 3 games was 32 to 10. As faithful followers know, we won NONE of those 3 games. Unlike all of those games that "flipped the script" in the 2nd half, of course the lone pick out of my four that was losing at the half did NOT turn around in the 2nd half. In fact, maybe it is best to hope for a tie score in this one at the half! But I digress so back to the keys here as we look to get a well-deserved win...the Colts are the better team and the better team and I love the QB battle going on between Eason and Ehrlinger for the #2 spot behind the already-injured Wentz. Both Eason and Ehrlinger will be "turned loose" a bit in this one by an offensive-minded head coach, Frank Reich and these guys are expected to play 3 quarters combined. Then, in the 4th quarter it is expected to be Brett Hundley and he has NFL starter experience from his time with the Packers. In most recent preseason in 2019 he completed 68% of his passes and threw for 2 touchdowns with no INT's. I like the Colts QB rotation throughout this game and, as the better overall team and with the coaching edge in this game too and better team depth, the home team should win by a comfortable margin here. The Panthers have solid starters but many will not even see the field here and they do not have the depth the Colts do and also I have a lot of concerns about Carolina's offensive line play. 8* INDIANAPOLIS -3 |
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08-14-21 | Hamilton +3 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 8-30 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
ESPNews Network Rout - Rickenbach CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats +1.5 @ Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 10 ET - Saskatchewan off a non-covering win in which they nearly entirely blew a 31-0 lead in their season opener. That gives me some major question marks about the Roughriders defense but really this play is more about taking an extremely good team as an underdog coming off a loss. Yes we faded Hamilton with Winnipeg in Week 1 and got the win but the Blue Bombers, now 2-0 on the season, certainly look quite strong. Also, the Tiger-Cats were done in by turnovers in that game and that is helping to give us line value here as the Blue Bombers defense has looked strong this season. Hamilton will take advantage of a leaky Riders defense in this one and I look for the hungry Ti-Cats, a true Grey Cup favorite this season, to gets into the win column! 10* HAMILTON |
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08-14-21 | Montreal v. Edmonton Elks -5 | 30-13 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
ESPN+ Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Saturday 8* Edmonton Elks (-) vs Montreal Alouettes @ 7 ET - Edmonton outgained Ottawa 443 to 127 last week. Yet, not only did the Elks not cover the spread, they did not even win the game. I feel that is helping to give us some rock solid line value here. Edmonton QB Trevor Harris threw 3 picks against 0 touchdowns last week and that is not happening again. Additionally the Als have not even played a game yet this season. The game under the belt edge for the Elks is another edge over Montreal here. Edmonton had a winning record at home and in non-divisional play last season. The Alouettes did not have a winning record in non-divisional play or on the road. In other words, the early line move from 3.5 down to a 3 makes this one an even bigger value and what sure looks to me like the perfect set up for a home win. 8* EDMONTON -3 |
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08-14-21 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Bears | 13-20 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #113 Saturday 8* Miami Dolphins +3.5 @ Chicago Bears @ 1 ET - The Bears have all the hype with Justin Fields at QB now but this is still a preseason battle likely to be close and plus in the only preseason HC Brian Flores has had with the Dolphins they went 3-1 in 2019 and the only loss was by 2 points. He likes to do some different schemes even in preseason and play around with things so he could keep this inconsistent Bears offense a bit off-balance all game long no matter which units are out there. That said, Miami is also off a 10-6 season has some decent team depth and this is a Bears team whose defense has not been the same in recent years. Also, note that Chicago has gone only 3-6 SU in preseason the last two years and 1 of those wins was by just a single point. Too much underdog value to pass up on here. 8* MIAMI +3.5 |
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08-14-21 | Crystal Palace v. Chelsea -1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 107 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
Early Dominator - Rickenbach EPL Saturday 8* Chelsea -1.5 goals +107 vs Crystal Palace @ 10 AM ET - Chelsea was the best club in the premier league last season once they made the managerial change. They dominated defensively and in goal and now take on a Crystal Palace club known for struggling to score. I just don't see the visitors having any luck finding the back of the net here as they will struggle to even generate scoring chances. At the same time, the hosts are a big money line favorite for a reason and where we get the value here is the goal line. Chelsea won the two meetings last season by a combined score of 8 to 1. Similar domination expected here. 8* CHELSEA -1.5 goals +107 |
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08-12-21 | BC v. Calgary -7 | Top | 15-9 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
ESPN+ Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #680 Thursday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders (-) vs BC Lions @ 9:30 ET - The early line on this game was a 6.5 but where it goes from there is a big question mark as the odds makers have been slow putting up numbers on CFL action early this season. In any event, I am going big on the Stampeders here as they blew a 20-12 lead in the 4th quarter to lose their opener to Toronto. Calgary is well aware of the fact that BC rallied from a 31-0 deficit to put a scare into the Roughriders last week at Saskatchewan. The Riders appeared to let up with a big lead and the Stamps will not make the same mistake here and should prove to be the better team on the ground in this one as well. 10* CALGARY |
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08-12-21 | Steelers v. Eagles | Top | 24-16 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
PA Dominator - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #106 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (PK) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 7:30 ET - The Eagles had a horrible season last year and are likely destined for another rough one this year. However, Philly does have a new coach and a young one at that. Nick Sirianni will be hungrier than most in the preseason and is going to demand a high compete level from his team even in a meaningless game. This Eagles team is going to struggle in the regular season barring a miracle turnaround because they need to time to jell and have had major roster turnover in recent seasons. However, in the preseason they could be a bit of a surprise given all of the above factors. The Steelers do have a solid preseason history including going in recent seasons but still went just 1-1 on the road in each of the last two preseasons. Coming off a win over the Cowboys in the HOF Game last week makes this road game even less important for the Steelers. As for the Eagles, new head coach Sirianni and company will be desperate for something to latch onto early in the year and that includes preseason where many roster battles are going on. 10* PHILADELPHIA pick'em |
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08-10-21 | Dodgers v. Phillies +1.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
PA Dominator - Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line +1.5 -110 vs Los Angeles Dodgers at 7:05 ET - Without a shadow of doubt the Dodgers are a strong team and Max Scherzer is a great pitcher. However, the Phillies have won 8 straight games and are at home and have Aaron Nola on the mound. To get Philadelphia in this situation at +1.5 runs and a pick'em price range is too strong of a value to pass up on. Keep in mind, the Phillies are very familiar with Scherzer as up until just recently he was pitching for the division rival Nationals. That said, even though he has had success against them this season, this Phillies lineup has a ton of confidence right now and are familiar with his offerings. As for the Dodgers, they are not as a strong of a team when on the road and have lost 7 of last 13 away from home. The Phillies have won 6 of 9 Nola home starts this season and he has a 3.18 ERA at home and this is his first start against the Dodgers in over two years and that is an edge for him. This should be a tight ball-game and having the extra run and half on our side could prove to be the difference but I would not be surprised to see the Phillies win outright either. We'll grab the added insurance with hottest team in baseball. 10* PHILADELPHIA Run Line +1.5 -110 |
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08-07-21 | Ottawa +7 v. Edmonton Elks | Top | 16-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
ESPN2 Game of the Week - 10* OTTAWA +7 - I know QB Matt Nichols is questionable for this game but I doubt he'll miss it and they do have some options behind him. That being said, I also feel - though it is hard to fully judge early in the season - the Redblacks could very well have the better defense in this match-up. That said, there is a reason why this line is below a full TD as it opened up. Edmonton was only an 8-10 team last season and thy have some question marks, particularly on defense, entering the new season. That said, I really like the defensive coordinator - Benevides - for Ottawa here and feel the defensive schemes could be a difference in this game. He used to be with Edmonton and knows them well. Whether that leads to an outright upset remains to be seen but I do feel it means that if the Elks do prevail here it will be by the slimmest of margins. Good value with the points in this one. 10* OTTAWA +7 |
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08-07-21 | Toronto +5.5 v. Calgary | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
ESPN+ Early Dominator - 8* TORONTO +5.5 - Something funny with this line. Toronto is off a 4-18 season in which they won just once on the road and also just once against the West. However, they are a rather small dog here given those numbers. The fact is that the Argonauts have undergone a major overhaul and there is a certain rejuvenated attitude here among the Argos. As strong as Calgary tends to be, particularly when at home, note that the Stampeders did go just 4-4 against the East last season. Also, the Stamps are not quite as talented as they have been in recent seasons and I am forecasting a bit of an early season hangover for Calgary after the disappointing way their 2019 season ended. 8* TORONTO +5.5 |
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08-06-21 | BC v. Saskatchewan -6.5 | Top | 29-33 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
ESPN+ Top Play - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #674 Friday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders -6.5 vs BC Lions @ 9:30 ET - I know that hope springs eternal at the start of a season but I just do not think the Lions have what it takes and there are going to be some growing pains as they look to rebound from last year's poor season. Not only did BC go just 5-13 last season they were 0-10 in divisional games. Conversely, Saskatchewan is known for being tough to play at home annually and last season was no different. The Roughriders were a fantastic 8-1 in home games last season. With a raucous sold out crowd likely - the prairie region of Canada is where CFL is most popular - look for the home team to roll by a big margin in this one. The average margin of loss was 15.4 in the Lions 5 road losses to divisional opponents last season and this included 4 of the 5 by at least points. BC lost all 3 games with the Roughriders and those defeats were by margin of 16 points per game. The Lions offense might keep them in this game a little bit early on but eventually the home team should pull away in this game and win by a double digit margin. 10* SASKATCHEWAN -6.5 |
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08-05-21 | Hamilton v. Winnipeg +3.5 | 6-19 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
ESPN2 Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #672 Thursday 8* Winnipeg Blue Bombers +3.5 vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 8:30 ET - Revenge game from 2019 CFL Grey Cup which Winnipeg dominated by a 33-12 count. Both teams have some injury issues. However, the popular choice here is Hamilton to get revenge and, do not get me wrong, the Tiger-Cats are a very solid team. However, revenge can often be over-played and over-valued. Here we are a getting a Blue Bombers team that is at home where they went 8-1 last season and they are a home dog of more than a field goal as of very early morning on gameday. This is a ton of value and I am aware of the injury issues but feel they are equally impacting to both teams so I am calling that a wash. That said, I like the home dog here as they do not want to let the Ti-Cats come in and spoil the unfurling of the championship banner in this one. The Blue Bombers only home loss last season came against Hamilton so the revenge factor actually goes both ways here. Being the first game of a new season after a 2020 season that was lost to the pandemic and without any 2021 pre-season games, I truly feel there is even more value than usual with having the points on your side in an opener and this is particularly true of a home dog. 8* WINNIPEG +3.5 |
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08-05-21 | Cowboys +2.5 v. Steelers | 3-16 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 42 m | Show | |
TV Dominator - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #101 Thursday 8* Dallas Cowboys +2.5 vs Pittsburgh Steelers in HOF Game @ Canton, OH @ 8 ET - The Steelers have a recent history of ATS success in preseason action so I totally understand the line here. However, I think the Cowboys are coming in a little extra hungry in this pre-season and I like their QB rotation. Of course pre-season, and especially an "extra game" like this that goes early is all about fighting for roster spots, etc. But with new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn calling the shots for Dallas D there could be a little extra aggression on that side of the ball. This Cowboys D has a lot to prove here and I feel they step up well throughout this game. The HOF games are known for being low-scoring battles and that means even some extra value in this one with having the points on your side. By the way, the Cowboys were just 2-2 SU in most recent pre-season but one of the losses was by just 2 points. The Steelers are just 2-2 SU in road pre-season games last 2 years plus one of their home wins last season was by just 2 points. Having the points could come in handy here but also would not be surprised to see the hungrier team, with a lot of roster battles going on, get the upset win here. Grab the points. 8* DALLAS +2.5 |
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08-04-21 | Pirates v. Brewers -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Just like a career .300 hitter having to battle his way out of a slump (it is the only way to get through it), that is what I am dealing with now with what has been, since the All-Star break, my toughest 3-week stretch in the 20 years I have been doing this. That said, my plays are normally on a scale of 8* for regulars and 10* for tops but today I am going to my lowest rating on all plays which is a 6* rating for all plays released. Look for the turnaround to begin today. Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #952 Wednesday 6* Milwaukee Brewers Run Line -1.5 runs -125 vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 2:10 ET - Upsets happen and yesterday's 8-5 Pirates win here was a perfect example of that. However, the Brewers bullpen is one of the best in the majors and Pittsburgh's is one of the worst. Also, Milwaukee has a huge starting pitching edge here as Steven Brault is making his first start of 2021 after getting hurt in late March. This is a guy who mostly has struggled as the MLB level as 2020's shortened season was truly his first enjoying moderate success at the MLB level. He'll be on a limited pitch count and got hit hard the last time he had a start go longer than 3 innings at Milwaukee. The Brewers start Freddy Peralta and he is having a phenomenal season. Peralta also has a 1.96 ERA in his 4 career starts against Pittsburgh. This season he is 8-3 with a 2.21 ERA in his 19 starts and the Brewers have won 13 of those. Also, prior to yesterday's loss, Milwaukee was 11-3 this season against the Pirates plus a long-term 16-4 at home when hosting Pittsburgh. Of course the Brewers are a big favorite on the money line with good reason here and the run line is where the value is at. NONE of the last dozen games between these teams has been a one run game! Look for a home blowout. 6* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 runs -125 |
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08-03-21 | Phillies -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
PA Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs -105 @ Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - As mentioned right here in yesterday's write-up, the Phillies certainly proved that they are "going for it" this season with all the moves they made at the trade deadline. With newly acquired starting pitcher Kyle Gibson coming up big for them, the Phillies rolled 15 to 4 Sunday. They had a hugely productive day at the plate as that was the first time in 80 years a Phillies team had scored 15 runs in a game without even a single homer. In other words their run production without home run power was huge in that game. Now bolstered by a huge 5-run 9th inning yesterday and an eventual 7-5 win, they now are just 2.5 games out of 1st place in the division and this is with 2 months of baseball left. Of course the Nationals still have life in the division too but Washington has been going the wrong direction. After yesterday's defeat, the Nats have lost 19 of 28 games. Zach Wheeler starts for the Phillies and he has a 2.45 ERA on the season and has deserved a much better won-loss record. The fact is that he has been fantastic and the Phillies are big road favorites here for a reason. We get value by avoiding laying the big juice and playing Philadelphia on the run line. Wheeler should get plenty of run support as his teammates should pound Patrick Corbin. The Washington left-hander has seen the Nationals lose each of his last 3 starts as he has compiled an 8.05 ERA and has a 1.85 WHIP in those 3 outings. Corbin allowed 3 homers against the Phillies in his most recent start. To put that in proper perspective, Wheeler has allowed only 2 homers total in 8 road starts this season! He also is likely to work deeper into this game than Corbin and that minimizes the bullpen usage. Neither pen has been impressive this season but the Phils pen was bolstered at the trade deadline and overall they have been the better team over the past month in comparison with the fading Nationals. Lay the small price on the RUN LINE with the road team in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 runs -105 |
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07-25-21 | Rangers v. Astros -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
6* Houston Astros Run Line -1.5 runs -115 - going to what is normally my lowest rating, a 6*, on all my plays today. The Rangers have lost 11 straight games. All 11 have been by 2 or more runs. That said, we get line value here with the Astros at home at a pick'em price on the run line. The home team has dominated this series in recent seasons and that includes Houston now being 21-2 last 23 as a host against the Rangers. Greinke expected to start and he has a 3.58 ERA this season and the Astros are 14-6 in his starts this year. Hearn likely to start for Texas and he is used to working out of the bullpen and has not pitched more than 2 innings since mid-April. Also, with him not working deep a struggling Foltynewicz could be called upon early out of the bullpen. Either way the Rangers losing streak looks highly likely to continue and the margin should be big. 6* HOUSTON -1.5 -115 |
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07-17-21 | Indians v. A's -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator RL - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #968 Saturday 10* Top Play Oakland A's Run Line -1.5 runs +115 vs Cleveland Indians @ 4:05 ET - The A's rallied for the win last night and will build off that this afternoon. Cleveland has lost 10 of 13 games. Prior to last night's defeat, 7 of last 10 Indians defeats by 2 or more runs and this has blowout potential. Cleveland is starting Cal Quantrill and he has a 9.29 ERA on the road this season and the Indians are 0-3 in those starts. Oakland is starting Frankie Montas and he has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 5 of last 6 starts. Montas struck out 10 in his most recent start before the All Star break and now looks to dominate here. The A's have now won 9 of last 13 home games. The line is a little pricey here on the money line but we get plus money on the run line and that is the route to take here. 10* OAKLAND -1.5 runs +115 |
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07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns -6 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #502 Tuesday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (-) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 9:05 ET - Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful for this game. The line still may look a little steep to most considering the Bucks have been winning some games without him. However, in typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of that thinking. I look for Phoenix to win this game by double digits. This is the toughest team the Bucks have faced in the post-season and they are on the road and they are not at full strength and likely without their best player. Blowout home win in the forecast here to get the finals underway. Suns on 10-3 ATS run. Milwaukee off a rare road win and cover and had been on 2-4 ATS run in road games. 10* PHOENIX |
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07-05-21 | Braves -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Monday 10* Top Play Atlanta Braves Run Line -1.5 runs -115 @ Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:05 ET - The Pirates are off a surprising 2-0 win yesterday as they had lost 6 straight games. Even with the win, note that Pittsburgh has not scored more than 2 runs in any of their last 7 games. That said, the Braves Max Fried should have a great start here. Fried has been rounding back into top form and has a 3.00 ERA his last 3 starts with a 0.89 WHIP. Chase De Jong of the Pirates will be his counterpart tonight and he is struggling badly. De Jong is winless with a 5.65 ERA in his 6 starts this season and has taken the loss in each of his last 3 starts. Each of the Pirates last 7 losses have been by a margin of 2 or more runs. Admittedly, the Braves have had a lot of tight one-run wins lately but, based on all of the above, this one has the makings of an absolute road rout. The Braves 3 wins over the Pirates this season have been by an incredible combined score of 33 to 3. Another blowout here. 10* ATLANTA -1.5 -115 |
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07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #562 Saturday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (-) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:35 ET - Giannis is more likely to miss this game than Trae Young. I just can't see Young missing a win or go home game while Giannis has the luxury of knowing there would still be a Game 7 at home in Milwaukee he can rest up for if the Bucks lose this game. Subconsciously, the Bucks could have a letdown here. They rallied the troops in the first game without Giannis on Thursday but I just don't see them again shooting 50 percent from the field without him like they did in Game 5. That said, regardless of who plays, I like the Hawks to get a big win here at home in Game 6. They did win Game 4 convincingly here without Young and even before Giannis got hurt in the 3rd quarter of that game, the Bucks were down by double digits for most of that game. Milwaukee has lost 4 of last 6 road games. The home team has won 4 of last 6 games between these teams and the Hawks held the Bucks to 39% from the field and 20% three pointers the last time these teams met in Atlanta. The home team, after being embarrassed at Milwaukee in Game 5, will respond big here in Game 6 regardless of who is on the floor. But, in that regard, the odds favor that it will be Young coming back for this one and not Giannis. Either way, the play here is the home team in a blowout. 10* ATLANTA |
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06-30-21 | Suns +1 v. Clippers | Top | 130-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #531 Wednesday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (+) @ Los Angeles Clippers @ 9 ET - As you know, I am not fond of laying big juice or big points and, that said, this the perfect spot to take Phoenix to finish this series off. Since the Suns are on the road, we get great line value here with this line right around a pick'em and even available at +1 for Phoenix in some spots this morning. The Suns had won 10 of 11 prior to Monday's loss and I look for them to improve to 3-0 the last 3 times they were on the road and coming off a loss. The Clippers made 54.8% of their shots from the field and I certainly do not expect that to be repeated. In fact, LA made just 32.5% of their shots in the last game here. Considering that as well as the Suns being fired up off a loss and Los Angeles still without Kawhi Leonard, look for this series to end tonight. 10* PHOENIX +1 |
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06-29-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +7 | Top | 88-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
Money Line Mauling - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #522 Tuesday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks Money Line +230 vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:30 ET - Of course you can grab the Hawks at +7 if you prefer but I am grabbing the money line. I am glad we won with the Clippers last night as a plus points underdog but still kicking myself for not using their big plus money line like I did on Atlanta in Game 1 of this series when they won outright at nearly +300 odds. The fact is that the Hawks are off back to back losses now and they are 5-1 SU the last 6 times they have entered a game off consecutive losses. We are getting extra line value here because of the Trae Young injury situation but I would be shocked if he did not play and/or was not effective. Either way though I expect a huge response from the Hawks here and certainly do not expect the Bucks to shoot better than 50% from the field for a 3rd consecutive game either. Milwaukee has a solid home record but Atlanta's home record even better. Also, the Hawks were the better team for the first 3 quarters of Sunday's loss before blowing the game in the 4th quarter as they were flustered by the Young injury situation. That will not impact them here as it known he has a bone bruise and he and the Hawks rally the troops for this one. 10* ATLANTA Money Line +230 |
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06-28-21 | Clippers +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
Western Conf Finals Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #511 Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (+) @ Phoenix Suns @ 9:05 ET - This series has featured tight games and I am expecting another one here. The Clippers lone win was by 14 points but their 3 losses were by a total of only 11 points! That said, we have some value with the 5.5 points being offered here as the Suns, despite going against an LA team playing without Kawhi Leonard, has struggled to put them away in each game. Phoenix has made just 20 of 78 three pointers in the last 3 games in this series and that included one at home of course. The Clippers actually have shot better at Phoenix from downtown in this series as they have made 33 of 81 three pointers in the 2 games played here. That said, don't be surprised if Los Angeles finds away to stay alive in this series with an upset win here in Game 5. However, if LA does fall short, look for the points to be enough for the all-important cover in this one. 10* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS |
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06-25-21 | Hawks +8 v. Bucks | Top | 91-125 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
East Conf Finals Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #581 Friday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:35 ET - Bad news for the Bucks here. The Hawks Bogdan Bogdanovic scored just 2 points on only 1 of 6 shooting in Game One as he was bothered by a sore knee and Atlanta still won the game outright. That said, I am grabbing the points here in Game Two for the same reasons I took the Hawks to win Wednesday's game outright as a +$300 money line dog. The only reason I am grabbing the points here is I would not be surprised to see the Bucks find a way to get a SU win here but I certainly don't see them getting that win by any kind of sizable margin. As mentioned in Wednesday's write-up, the Hawks are just feeling it right now and are playing with no playoff pressure on them. The Bucks, conversely, have a ton of pressure on them because of high expectations coupled with recent post-season disappointments. The loose and relaxed team is the Hawks and that makes for a very dangerous underdog. Atlanta is 6-2 SU on the road in the playoffs and they enter this game on an overall 4-1 SU run with the only loss in that stretch coming by just 5 points. The Bucks last 7 games have resulted in 3 SU losses and only 2 of the 4 SU wins for Milwaukee were by more than 4 points. You can see the value in having the points on your side with numbers like this and you know the Bucks will be geared up to not drop a 2nd consecutive home game. But again, this Hawks team is simply incredibly resilient and Trae Young right now is playing at another level that is simply phenomenal. 10* ATLANTA |
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06-23-21 | Hawks +8.5 v. Bucks | Top | 116-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
Money Line Mauling - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #561 Wednesday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks Money Line +300 @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:35 ET - The Bucks beat a Nets team that was a giant mess. Kyrie Irving got hurt during series. James Harden was hurt for the key early part of the series and had no rhythm with his shooting when he came back. So basically Milwaukee beat a Brooklyn team that for much of the series was a shell of the team it should be. That does not mean the Bucks are not a rock solid team as they truly are one of the best teams in the league. But I feel strongly they are in for some "shock value" when they face Atlanta here. Yes I know the Hawks are a little banged up right now but they are not dealing with major injury issues like the Nets were. That said, Atlanta comes into this series having defeated a high-quality 76ers team that had their stars on the floor. The Hawks have plenty of momentum on their side and a confidence and a swagger that are both keys to winning on the road. Atlanta gets down double digits in a game that is still not a problem as they have shown throughout this post-season. But I actually expect the Hawks to get a great early jump on Milwaukee in this game and to play from ahead for much of the way. Trae Young is the Hawks superstar and he only played in ONE of the three games against Milwaukee in the regular season because of injuries during the year and he shot an uncharacteristic 3 of 17 in that one game. So Young essentially did nothing against the Bucks in the entire regular season series and yet Atlanta still went 1-2 in the 3 games. Also, the Hawks are on a 4-1 SU run in road games. The ATS winner has been the SU winner in 9 of Milwaukee's last 10 games. In other words, whoever you like ATS here you can certainly also feel confident about in terms of a SU win too and I am going for the big payback here. Grab the money line on the Hawks as they are rolling with confidence right now and are a cohesive group unlike the wounded and broken Nets team that the Bucks just played. 10* ATLANTA +300 |
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06-22-21 | Clippers v. Suns -5 | Top | 103-104 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #552 Tuesday 10* Phoenix Suns (-) vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 9:05 ET - Per the zig zag theory, the Clippers are the play here since they lost Game 1. However, in typical contrarian fashion, I am on the Suns here but it certainly is not without reason. I know Phoenix is still without Paul but the Clippers still being without Leonard is an even bigger factor. Also, I love the fact that the Suns won and covered the first game despite LA having nearly twice as many free throw attempts PLUS the fact that the Clippers outscored the Suns by 21 points from the 3-point line! Yes Los Angeles hit 20 threes compared to 13 threes for Phoenix and yet they still lost the game by half a dozen points! Keep in mind, the Suns are allowing only 100 points per game last 6 home games. The Clippers have allowed 115 points last 4 road games and are missing a key defender with the aforementioned absence of Kawhi. The Suns have won 8 games in a row and all have been by 6 or more points. Look for this one to fall into that category as well! 10* PHOENIX |
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06-19-21 | Bucks +2 v. Nets | Top | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #521 Saturday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 8:35 ET - Normally I would suggest playing the money line here but at the time of this write-up at 8 AM ET on gameday morning, the money is only +110 but the spread is +2 and that gives enough value to grab the point spread in my opinion. Why I am looking for a Milwaukee win here? As long-time followers know I am a contrarian. These teams have met 9 times this season. 3 times in the regular season and 6 times in this playoff series. The home team has won all 9 games. Then the oddsmakers opened up the Bucks as 1.5 point road favorites here. The betting markets of course are saying the oddsmakers do not know what they are doing and the line has moved 3.5 points to where it is now Brooklyn that is a 2-point favorite. Keep in mind, the Nets are without Kyrie Irving and to me the Bucks sure look like the hungrier team. They are playing with a lot of intensity and passion right now. I know Brooklyn will dig deeper at home in this Game 7 but the hungrier team and healthier team will not be denied in Game 7 no matter the venue. The Bucks did a great job in the rebounding department and in terms of getting to the free throw line in Game 6 and they will do the same here and get the road win. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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06-18-21 | 76ers -3 v. Hawks | Top | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
2nd Round Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #511 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - The Sixers led by 18 going to the 4th quarter Wednesday and lost. They led by 13 at the half in Atlanta Monday and lost. After blowing back to back games the 76ers are in trouble as the Hawks are in the drivers seat now. However, Philadelphia knows that with one win tonight, the Sixers can force a Game 7 which would be in Philly. I do not see them being denied in that quest. Someone, or even a few players (the star talent is there) will step up for the 76ers in the fourth quarter of this game. This team should have a "going for the kill" mentality throughout the entirety of this game. The following is an excerpt from what I mentioned in a write-up earlier in this series on Philadelphia when they took a 2-1 series lead by winning Game 3 at Atlanta: "The Hawks played in a much weaker division this season than Philadelphia did. Note that Philly played in a tough Atlantic Division but still went 10-2 in the division. Also, the 76ers went 13-2 against the weak Southeast Division. The Hawks record was helped by the fact they went 9-3 in their own division. Against the Atlantic Division, Atlanta had a losing record at 7-8." All of that still holds true here and now you have the 76ers very angry after back to back losses and they are on the road so that is keeping this game at a very playable number - currently in the -3 range. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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06-16-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -6 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #582 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:30 ET - The following is an excerpt from what I mentioned in a write-up earlier in this series on Philadelphia when they took a 2-1 series lead by winning Game 3 at Atlanta: "The Hawks played in a much weaker division this season than Philadelphia did. Note that Philly played in a tough Atlantic Division but still went 10-2 in the division. Also, the 76ers went 13-2 against the weak Southeast Division. The Hawks record was helped by the fact they went 9-3 in their own division. Against the Atlantic Division, Atlanta had a losing record at 7-8." All of that still holds true here and now you have Philly, after blowing a big lead in Game 4, all of the sudden knotted at 2 games apiece in this series but back home where they are known for dominating. The 76ers have one of the best combined home records in recent seasons among any of the teams in the league. Now of course we not only need the Sixers to win this game but also cover the spread. To put your mind at ease about this but, not sure if you have noticed in this post-season, the spread has hardly ever mattered. There have been very few games where the SU winner was not also the ATS winner. That trend dates back to the regular season in 76ers games to as only 1 of their last 14 games has seen the SU winner not also be the ATS winner. Look for the home team to get right back on track here and win this one in a blowout by a double digit margin. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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06-14-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -124 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Puck Line Game of the Month - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #1 Monday 10* Top Play Montreal Canadiens Puck Line +1.5 -125 @ Vegas Golden Knights @ 9:05 ET - The Canadiens swept the Jets in the prior round so they are well rested. They now face a very tough Golden Knights team at Vegas however and that is why they are a huge dog here. But having Carey Price between the pipes is huge as the veteran netminder has been fantastic in this post-season and certainly is capable of stealing games. Even if he does not steal this one per se, I could see it being a loss by the slimmest of margins - a one goal loss for Montreal. I am laying the -125 price to have the insurance of the goal and a half here. Keep in mind, the Canadiens have won 7 straight games. Their last 9 games have featured just one that was a Montreal loss by more than a single goal margin. Also, the Golden Knights did get a chance to rest some after knocking off Colorado but still that was an epic battle with an Avalanche team that is very tough to play against and could take something out of Vegas heading into this one. The Golden Knights did pull away for a huge win in Game 6 against the Avs but that was just the 3rd time in 9 games that Vegas has won by a multiple goal margin. That's right, just 33% of the time for a 2+ goal margin win for the Golden Knights and I like the chances of the Canadiens possibly being a surprise here in Game One. Vegas is the better team no doubt but Price and the Habs could steal one here and this should be a very tight game either way. 10* MONTREAL Puck Line +1.5 goals -125 |
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06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks -3.5 | Top | 83-86 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #522 Thursday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:30 ET - So far in this series, excluding 3 pointers, the Bucks have outscored the Nets by 19 points. That is crazy to think about, right? But it is true and it is even more crazy considering Brooklyn has been without James Harden. He is going to miss tonight's game too and I feel strongly that this is where it will catch up with the Nets. They are on the road facing an angry Milwaukee team and I expect a huge effort from the Bucks as Brooklyn's 3-point shooting finally settles back down from astronomical levels! In the regular season the Nets were only 20-16 SU in road games while the Bucks were 26-10 SU in home games. The home team has won and covered all 5 meetings between these teams this year and I look for that trend to continue tonight as the Bucks finally put forth a very strong effort and Brooklyn's ridiculously hot outside shooting finally cools. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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06-08-21 | Clippers v. Jazz -4 | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #504 Tuesday 8* Utah Jazz (-) vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 10:05 ET - The Jazz have won 11 of 14 straight up and have a huge rest edge here. They have not played since June 2nd while the Clippers have played twice since then. Before those two wins for Los Angeles over Dallas to wrap up a 7-game series win, LA had lost 5 of 7 both SU and ATS. All 11 of Utah's wins in their 11-3 SU run have come by a margin of 7 or more points and I fully expect this one will too! Rest edge and home court edge will be huge and the Clippers could be fatigued in the thin air of Utah after that 7-game battle with the Mavericks took everything they had to advance. 8* UTAH |
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06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -5.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #502 Tuesday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:30 ET - The 76ers will respond off the Game 1 loss. The Sixers had won 10 in a row at home prior to that loss. 9 of the 10 wins came by 7 or more points. The Hawks made twice as many three pointers in the game as Atlanta knocked down 20 from beyond the arc while Philadelphia made just 10. That is a 30-point variance from downtown and yet the Hawks only won the game by 4 points even with that 30 point edge beyond the arc. You get my point. Sixers roll by double digits. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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06-07-21 | Bucks +2 v. Nets | Top | 86-125 | Loss | -121 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
TNT Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #581 Monday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - The Nets are without James Harden but he went out in the first minute of Game One with a hamstring injury and yet Brooklyn still ended up building a huge lead and winning the game by 8 points. That said, the Bucks are in real trouble here, right? Actually I expect them to be able to make some solid adjustments now since they know Harden is out. Also the reason they lost Game One was they made only 6 of 30 from downtown while Brooklyn made 15 of 40 from beyond the arc. When you get outscored by 27 points from three point land you actually should lose the game by a lot more than 8 points. In other words, there were some things to like in the Game One performance for Milwaukee. The Bucks were the better rebounding time and did a better job of getting to the free throw line than did the Nets. That said, I will take the road team in anticipation of a big bounce back win here in Game Two. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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06-06-21 | Mavs +6.5 v. Clippers | Top | 111-126 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #573 Sunday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Los Angeles Clippers @ 3:35 ET - Too much line value to pass up on here in my opinion. The road team not only has covered all 6 games in this series they have won each game outright. That said, grabbing the Mavericks on the money line here is in a 6-0 / 100% perfect SU situation. But we can add insurance to our play by grabbing the points being offered with Dallas. The Mavs are currently a 6.5 dog in this one as of early game day morning and that is a big value. 3 of the 6 games in this series have been decided by single digit margins - an average of 6 points per game - and this should be another tight one here. I do expect the road team trend to continue but will grab the points as added insurance with this one. 10* DALLAS +6.5 |
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06-03-21 | Suns +2 v. Lakers | Top | 113-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #543 Thursday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (+) @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 10:35 ET - Looking at this series and looking at Anthony Davis, you can see how there is a clear relationship. Davis had a sub-par game one and the Suns won that game. Angry and motivated, Davis and the Lakers bounced back with big performances in each of the next two games. Then, still dealing with some lingering injury issues Davis was not the same guy in Game 4 and then got another injury - groin - that knocked him out of the game. However, even before the new injury, you could see Davis was not the same guy. Why does this matter? Well, the Suns went on to win Game 4 after he exited and, again, he was not himself for the 1/2 game worth of minutes he was out there. Then, without him in Game 5, the Lakers got blasted. Now, even if he comes back in Game 6, Davis is dealing with multiple injury issues. That said, I see the Lakers as "without Davis" no matter what in this game. He was not the same player in Game 4 even before he got hurt. He was playing hurt already. Now dealing with a multiple-injury situation, Davis will not be capable of a dominating performance here and, as we have seen throughout this season, Davis is the key to this team NOT LeBron James! With all of the above said, I expect the Suns to take advantage of this situation and end this series tonight. I will grab the bucket just in case they fall just short but I do expect an outright win here. 10* PHOENIX +2 |
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06-01-21 | Celtics +12.5 v. Nets | Top | 109-123 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #521 Tuesday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - Just too many points in my opinion. When you look at the box score from Game 4 of this series you see that the Nets made a ridiculously high percentage of 3-pointers and also just a ridiculously high percentage of shots overall. The Celtics actually had more field goal attempts and free throw attempts in the game and yet ended up on the wrong end of a blowout loss. I am not saying that Boston will not again lose this game but I am saying that they will not lose it by a double digit margin. We are currently getting 12.5 points in this one and I expect the Celtics, playing for their season here, to stay within single digits against Brooklyn. I am aware of the injury situation for Boston and that this is not the same Celtics team we have seen in recent playoff years but this is still too many points in my opinion and I just do not see the road dog being put down here without a helluva fight. Grab the big points. 10* BOSTON |
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05-31-21 | 76ers v. Wizards +8.5 | Top | 114-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #512 Monday 10* Top Play Washington Wizards (+) vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:05 ET - The markets are on Philly in this one so waiting to game day morning paid off some in terms of additional line value here as this one is now up to an 8.5 and I am expecting the Wizards to play a strong game. You know Washington does not want to get swept out of the playoffs by losing this one on their home floor. Of course being motivated is not reason enough to win a game but I expect a hard-fought battle here and at least a cover in this one. Washington actually did find a way to cover Game 1 of this series and in the past two games they have combined for 13 more shot attempts to the Sixers. How did they lose both so badly? Well, the Wizards are a ridiculous 10 of 57 from three point land the past two games while the 76ers are an equally ridiculous (the other way) 26 of 54 from three point land. Neither one of these statistical variances is likely to continue into a third straight game and that means value here with the big dog as I expect the gap of the last two games between these two teams to be closed in a big way. The home dog will not go down without a very strong effort and I see that leading to at least a cover in this one! 10* WASHINGTON +8.5 |
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05-31-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Puck Line Punisher - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #63 Monday 10* Top Play Montreal Canadiens Puck Line +1.5 goals -135 @ Toronto Maple Leafs @ 7:05 ET - The only other first round series that played out similar to this is the Wild rallied to tie the Golden Knights at 3 games apiece only to then get blasted in Game 7 at Vegas. I know many may expect a repeat here but I just do not. Part of the reasoning is Carey Price between the pipes. Montreal has him, Minnesota did not. The Canadiens did look very tired as Game 6 went on and this was particularly true in the overtime period. So, on the one hand, Montreal was fortunate to win the game after getting a 2-0 lead in the 3rd period only to then blow it and see the Leafs force overtime. However, the fact is they have now been able to rest and recharge the batteries a bit and they are happy to be in this situation! They were not supposed to take the Maple Leafs a full 7 games. That means all the pressure is on Toronto here. The Habs were not even supposed to be here and so they welcome this situation with open arms and can play much more loose and relaxed. This is in stark contrast with the heavily favored Leafs. As a result, I would not be surprised at all to see the Canadiens end up with an upset win here but I do feel that any loss will be by just a single goal as this is likely to be a tight hard-fought game. That said, I like the value of having the goal and a half with the puck line on our side. It is in a reasonable price range so I am grabbing that for the added insurance in this one. 10* MONTREAL +1.5 -135 |
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05-30-21 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche -1.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 140 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Puck Line Punisher - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #54 Sunday 10* Top Play Colorado Avalanche Puck Line -1.5 goals +140 vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 8:10 ET - The Golden Knights just came off 7-game war with the Wild and have been playing all week long. The Avalanche are coming off an ultra-easy 4-game sweep of the Blues and have been resting all week long. The rest edge and home ice edge are both with Colorado for this Sunday match-up. Also note that Vegas continues to travel constantly as Game 5 was in Vegas but then Game 6 was in Minnesota and then Game 7 back in Las Vegas again and now it is off to Denver for this series. Conversely, as noted above, Colorado has been resting up all week long and preparing for this highly coveted match-up everyone has been wanting to see. Advantage belongs to the Avs from a situational standpoint and of course that is also part of the reason they are nearly a 2 to 1 favorite on the money line in this one. That said, where we find the value in this one is on the puck line as we get into the +140 range by laying the 1.5 goals with the Avalanche. The last meeting was a 1-goal victory for Colorado but that was preceded by 3 of the last 4 meetings between these clubs all being decided by 3 or more goals. I look for a home ice win by at least a 2-goal margin in this one as the Avs are healthier than they have been in a long, long time and they will have fresh skating legs here and their speed and talent at the forward positions will prove to be too much for a tired Golden Knights hockey club in this one. 10* COLORADO Puck Line -1.5 goals +140 |
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05-30-21 | Suns +6.5 v. Lakers | Top | 100-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #503 Sunday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (+) @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 3:35 ET - I have heard that Anthony Davis will play no matter what but could his sprained knee limit him a little bit here? Either way, the fact is the Suns are going to come out strong here after losing back to back games. Phoenix needs to be stronger on the boards and they know they can ill afford falling into a 3-1 hole in this series so I look for the Suns to play their best game of the series thus far. Maybe that still does not avoid the 3-1 series deficit but it should at least get us the cash here as they stay inside the number on this one. There were 3 times in the regular season in which the Suns entered a game off consecutive losses in which at least one of the losses was a road defeat. In all 3 instances, Phoenix won that game and I am expecting that record to reach a perfect 4-0 today but will grab the points as added insurance in this one. The Lakers are off back to back covers but this was on the heels of a 4-13 ATS stretch. It has been a very long time since Los Angeles has covered 3 straight and I do not expect that to change here either as LA falls short of the cover in this one. Look for the Suns to be very active defensively and extra aggressive on the boards in this one and I am expecting them to play a much more complete game after falling short in back to back games. 10* PHOENIX |
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05-27-21 | Bucks v. Heat +2 | Top | 113-84 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #552 Thursday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:35 ET - The Heat got blasted on Monday by 32 points but were outscored by 42 points from three point land! It was just "one of those games" where the Bucks were making everything and the Heat were cold from beyond the arc. Miami actually had 35 free throw attempts compared to just 20 for Milwaukee. The Heat will be much better here after dropping the first two games of this series in Wisconsin. Miami lost Game One by only a 2-point margin. Now they are a home dog of a bucket here in a must win game. I like the Heat to get back on track in a big way here. Miami had covered 13 of 17 before the ugly loss in Game 2. Also, the Bucks had failed to cover 7 of 8 before getting that blowout win. Payback time for the Heat as they get back into the series with a key win Thursday. 10* MIAMI |
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05-27-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
Puck Line Punisher - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #21 Thursday 10* Top Play Montreal Canadiens Puck Line +1.5 goals -120 @ Toronto @ 7:05 ET - The Canadiens are down 3 games to 1 in this series and off an ugly loss in Game 4 but that is helping to give us line value here. I just do not see Montreal going down without a fight in this one and in terms of ugly losses prior to Monday's defeat, lets take a closer look. Toronto had won 9 of last 14 games between these teams prior to the big Game 4 win. However, 5 of the 9 wins were by just a single goal margin. That means in the 14 most recent games prior to that big win Monday, only 4 of the 14 had resulted in a Maple Leafs win by 2 or more goals. Here we can get the Habs at +1.5 goals and lay a very small price in doing so. That said, I like the odds here of a potential upset or, at the very least, a tight 1-goal loss as I do expect the Canadiens to put up a tremendous fight in this one. Also, in 12 of the last 15 meetings between the clubs, the road team has either won the game outright or lost by just a single goal margin. Again, tremendous value here in a must win game for the Canadiens. 10* MONTREAL Puck Line +1.5 goals |
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05-26-21 | Wizards v. 76ers -8 | Top | 95-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
1st round Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #542 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - In game one, the Wizards shot 56% from the field and 40% from three point land so your next question would be, okay how many points did Washington win by? Exactly...and yet the Wizards did not even win the game and barely covered as they lost by 7 points to stay just inside the number. The point of all this? Washington is in huge trouble if they can shoot like that and yet still not win the game. The Wizards had the better shooting numbers both inside and outside the 3-point line and yet still lost the game by nearly a double digit margin. That said, with the Sixers fully aware they need to D up even stronger, Philly wins this game by more than a dozen points in my opinion. The extra rest is another edge for the 76ers here as it is a key for Embiid to stay as healthy as possible and they are at home again and game one was on Sunday so two full off days in between. This is a big edge for Philly. Ride the home team to a cover here as the home team in 76ers games was on a 12-3 ATS run prior to their non-covering home win Sunday. That 80% run makes sense as Philly is known for struggling on the road but dominating as a host. Look for home domination in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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05-25-21 | Celtics +9.5 v. Nets | Top | 108-130 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #531 Tuesday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - Yes the Nets covered Game 1 but the Celtics actually led by 6 points at the half. The teams ended up taking an equal amount of shots but poor overall shooting for Boston cost them the game and the cover. I expect Brooklyn will shoot better from three point land here and fully understand they are do for a bounce back in that regard. However, the Nets are going to see some adjustments from the Celtics who are known for making good game to game adjustments. I know it has not been the same Boston team we have seen in the past but they are well-coached and will be ready to go here and I simply do not see them losing this game by a double digit margin. I know Brooklyn has been hot but the Celtics had covered 3 straight prior to that loss and I feel the Nets are over-priced here. Market is favoring the home favorite and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am going the other way! 10* BOSTON |
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05-23-21 | Lakers v. Suns -2.5 | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
Pacific Div Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #514 Sunday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 3:35 ET - Granted they would have another chance to make the post-season by facing Memphis but that does not change the fact the Lakers were fortunate to get past the Warriors in their play-in match-up. LA barely beat Golden State and I am well aware that the Lakers now have a winning streak going but 4 of their last 6 wins in the streak were against teams that did not end up making the playoffs. Now Los Angeles faces a major challenge here. Yes they beat Phoenix earlier this month but the Suns had won the prior two meetings this season by double digits. Also, this match-up is in Phoenix where the Suns went 27-9. This line has dropped from a 3 to a 2.5 and I feel we have fantastic line value here with the small home favorite. The Suns had a week off to rest up for this game and are healthy. With the Lakers now having Anthony Davis and James back on the floor again they are getting a lot of love from the betting markets but this is a very strong Suns team that has the rest edge and is on their home floor. Lay the small number. 10* PHOENIX |
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05-23-21 | Crystal Palace v. Liverpool -2.25 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -52.5 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
Goal Line Dominator - Rickenbach EPL Sunday 10* Liverpool Goal Line -2.25 goals -105 vs Crystal Palace @ 11 AM ET - Liverpool has been on a tear and now sits in a great position for a top four spot in the table. I do not seem being denied and feel strongly that Liverpool is going to win by plenty because they know they control their own destiny here other than the outside chance that Leicester wins and also ends up with an edge on goal differential. However, Liverpool already up 4 goals in the goal differential department and so I completely expect the hosts here to blast Crystal Palace and leave no doubt. Liverpool has won 4 straight matches by a combined score of 11 to 3. Additionally, they have won last two matches against Crystal Palace by a combined score of 11 to 0. This one, given the situation, gets very ugly. Crystal Palace is capable of being competitive but Liverpool has too much of a talent edge, too much momentum, and is highly motivated. Also, keep in mind, Tottenham's Harry Kane is knotted up with Liverpool's Mohamed Salah in the race for the Golden Boot so the hosts will not hesitate to get Salah heavily involved even if this is a blowout - and a rout is precisely what I expect. Lay it! 10* LIVERPOOL goal line -2.25 goals |
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05-22-21 | Mavs +5.5 v. Clippers | Top | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #509 Saturday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Los Angeles Clippers @ 4:35 ET - The Mavericks lost their regular season finale but how important was that game? Exactly! That said, it is playoff time now and Dallas entered that final game having won 12 of 15 games! The Mavs are out for revenge here from last year's playoff ouster at the hands of the Clippers. You can expect a very strong effort here as a result. I like the fact that Los Angeles is on a 3-8 ATS skid and I feel they are overvalued here with the line move from 4.5 now up to a 5.5 as of early game day morning. The Mavericks won 2 of the 3 meetings between these teams in the regular season and have plenty of confidence entering this post-season rematch. That makes for a very dangerous dog here. Give me the points! 10* DALLAS |
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05-19-21 | Spurs +4 v. Grizzlies | Top | 96-100 | Push | 0 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #567 Wednesday 10* Top Play San Antonio Spurs (+) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 7:30 ET - Good news for Spurs fans in this one! The game is AT Memphis! While that may seem like a facetious statement, the fact is that San Antonio went just 14-22 in home games this season and have proven to be a much better road team this season. More good news for Spurs fans is that the 3 games between these teams this season were not only ALL WON by the road team, the average margin of victory was 20 points per game! Not necessarily expecting a road rout here but I do expect the road team to find a way to get the outright win and, if they do fall short it should be by the slimmest of margins. That said, grabbing the points with the road dog in this one is the value play in my opinion as an outright upset certainly is possible, if not probable! The Grizzlies enter the post-season stumbling with a 4-9 ATS run! The Spurs went 23-13 ATS on the road this season. 10* SAN ANTONIO |
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05-19-21 | Liverpool -1.75 v. Burnley | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
Game of the Year - Rickenbach EPL Wednesday 10* Top Play Liverpool Goal Line -1.5 or -1.75 goals @ Burnley @ 3:15 ET - Earlier this season Burnley got the shocking upset win at Liverpool to end the long run of dominance the hosts had been having on their home pitch. Not only is this a revenge game, Liverpool also has been playing very well of late. They are on a big-time heater in Premier League games and now have their sights set on a top four finish! Even though Liverpool lost the first match with Burnley, they actually completely outplayed them in terms of possession and shots on goal. I do not see Liverpool being denied again and note that Burnley has had some big goals allowed totals in recent matches. Liverpool will be relentless on the attack in this one while Burnley is known for struggling to score goals and this is particularly true on their home pitch. While Liverpool has tallied 36 times away from home this season for one of the best marks in the league, Burnley has but 14 markers in 18 games on their home pitch this season. This one will be a road rout as Liverpool is focused and angry and out for revenge and I just do not seem them being denied nor do I see them settling for just a 1-goal win here. This should be a dominating road win. Lay it! 10* LIVERPOOL Goal Line -1.5 or -1.75 goals |
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05-18-21 | Hornets +3 v. Pacers | Top | 117-144 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #559 Tuesday 10* Top Play Charlotte Hornets +3 @ Indiana Pacers @ 6:40 ET - The Pacers wrapped up the season on a 7-0 ATS run while the Hornets wrapped up the season on an 0-5 SU run. That said, it looks awful easy to take Indiana -3 at home and fade Charlotte here does it not? Exactly! This is precisely why, in typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of this one! Give me the Charlotte team that no one else wants. However, this is certainly not a play without some strong reasoning behind it. For one thing, the Hornets won the last meetings with the Pacers this season by an average margin of 10 points per game and they dominated with a 20-10 turnover margin edge in the most recent meeting. For another thing, out of all 20 teams that either made the playoffs already or are in this play-in tournament, Indiana has the worst home record. In fact, the only other team even close to their 13-23 SU futility as a host is the Spurs out west. All other 18 teams have at least a .500 record at home on the season. So, the point is, some home court edge is baked into this line but the Pacers do not even deserve it. If I can take a team +3 against a team that is 13-23 at home plus that appears to have some match-up issues when facing this opponent, I will take that team every single time! Grab the points. 10* CHARLOTTE |
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05-12-21 | Kings v. Avalanche -1.5 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
Puck Line Punisher - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #34 Wednesday 8* Colorado Avalanche Puck Line -1.5 goals -135 vs Los Angeles Kings @ 9:05 ET - You have to be careful late in the season in terms of just blindly playing the teams that need to win. But, that said, this is indeed a great spot to back a team that needs to win. By virtue of their win over the Golden Knights Monday, the Avalanche can win the division if they just win their final two games of the season even if Vegas wins tonight. Colorado controls their own destiny and that is even though they did not play that well until the 3rd period of the victory over the Golden Knights Monday. The Avs want to make up for that here and play a complete game tonight and that is bad news for the Kings. Los Angeles has lost 24 of 36 and the Avalanche have won big in the last two meetings as a host as the Kings got crushed by a combined 6 to 1 in those two games. More of the same expected here as I expect the Avs to play a complete game here and dominate the full sixty after starting slowly against Vegas Monday. 8* COLORADO Puck Line -1.5 goals |