Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-18-18 | Northern Illinois +2.5 v. UAB | Top | 13-37 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #211 Tuesday 10* Top Play Northern Illinois Huskies (+) vs UAB Blazers in Boca Raton Bowl @ 7 ET - The location of this bowl game (Boca Raton, FL) certainly favors the Blazers. However, the Huskies have faced a much tougher schedule this season UAB has. This is leading to some significant line value here with Northern Illinois. Additionally, I like the way the Huskies rallied against a quality Buffalo team to win the MAC Championship Game on the final day of November. Of course UNI is known for their quality defense but to see them comeback like they did against the Bulls also says a little something about the offensive capability of this team. The Huskies average points per game their last 11 games has been held down by two poor performances (vs Mia-OH and @ BYU). In the other 9 games, Northern Illinois has averaged scoring 25.8 points per game. The Huskies have a strong ground game on offense but it was also impressive to see them throw for 300 yards in the MAC Championship win over Buffalo. UAB has the better record on the season but has faced the much softer schedule and I look for the Blazers to be exposed in this game! Also, UAB is 0-3 (SU and ATS) in games played on grass and 0-2 (SU and ATS) in games against MAC opponents. UNI is a long-term 25-13 ATS in games with a line between +3 and -3. Also, the Huskies are 4-2 ATS (and 5-1 SU!) this season in games against teams with a winning record. 10* NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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12-16-18 | Eagles +13 v. Rams | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #329 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Los Angeles Rams @ 8:20 ET - Carson Wentz is out. Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles steps in. Yes the Eagles are having a rough season and nothing has seemed to go their way but they still should not be this large of a favorite in this Sunday night game when you consider a number of factors. First off, Foles has certainly shown he is the type of player capable of rising to the occasion. Secondly, the NFC final wild card spot is still up for grabs so the Eagles are not without motivation here. Thirdly, the Rams have covered only 2 of their last 10 games! They continue to be over-inflated by the betting markets. Los Angeles is 0-2-2 ATS in their last 4 home games too! This is a revenge game for the Rams as the Eagles beat them here in LA last season. However, under coach Sean McVay, the Rams are 2-5-2 ATS (just 2 covers in 9 tries) when they are at home playing with revenge. Philadelphia is 10-6 ATS when, in the 2nd half of a season, they're facing a team with a winning record. Also, the Eagles are 4-2 ATS when off a divisional loss. Yes the Eagles are banged up but they still have plenty to play for here and one should expect a huge effort in a prime-time game with their season still having hopes of a push for a wild card spot. The Eagles won't quit until the final whistle here and the point-spread is inflated. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-16-18 | Seahawks v. 49ers +4 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #326 Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 4:05 ET - This is the Niners final home game against a division rival this season (host NFC North foe Chicago next week) and I look for them to make the most of it. San Francisco is catching Seattle at the right time to spring the upset. The Seahawks are off their Monday night win over Minnesota that was a much closer game than the final score would indicate. Now the Seahawks are on the road and on a short week and are facing a 49ers team that has averaged 345.5 passing yards per game their past two games! The first of those two games was at Seattle and the Niners outgained the Seahawks by 121 yards but lost 43 to 16 on the scoreboard. That is a statistical anomaly that we can now take advantage of in terms of public perception this week. The 49ers are 6-2 ATS as a divisional home dog of more than 3 points when facing a team off a SU win. Yes the Seahawks got a big win over the Vikings Monday but Seattle went 2-6 ATS in their final 4 regular season games the past two seasons. Look for that trend to resume here. 10* SAN FRANCISCO |
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12-16-18 | 76ers -8 v. Cavs | Top | 128-105 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #517 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 3:35 ET - Situations just don't get much better than this and, yes, I am aware of Jimmy Butler being questionable for this game with a groin injury. The 76ers were a perfect 10-0 at home this season when the Cavaliers visited Philadelphia last month and put an end to that perfection with a dominating road win. The 76ers haven't forgotten that and it is time for payback here. With Philly off rare back to back losses, the hunger factor is even higher for the revenge-minded Sixers here. The last 7 times that the 76ers have been off a loss they've gone 5-2 ATS. Look for a huge road win and cover here. The Cavaliers are off a double digit loss to the Bucks but don't look for a bounce back here! Cleveland is actually an ugly 20-38 ATS when off a loss by a margin of 10 or more points. The Sixers are a long-term 31-16 ATS (including 4-1 ATS this season) when off a loss by a margin of 10 or more points. The 76ers are also 32-16 ATS when playing with home loss revenge. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-16-18 | Cowboys v. Colts -3 | 0-23 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #314 Sunday 8* Indianapolis Colts (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - Both teams are off key divisional wins but the Colts are 5-1 ATS their last 6 when they are off a game versus the Texans. Also, Indianapolis is 10-1 ATS when they are at home off a divisional game and are facing an opponent with a winning percentage greater than .600. Remember too that Colts head coach Frank Reich used to be with the Eagles and helped lead them to their Super Bowl victory last year. You can see how Philadelphia is now struggle without Reich and the other key factor here is that he knows the Cowboys well from having spent the past two season as an offensive coordinator with Philly. In the 3 meaningful games against the Cowboys (remember that season-ending one last year was meaningless), Reich led the Eagles offense to average 29 points per game against the Cowboys in his two seasons with Philadelphia. He and the Colts will get the job done again here in a key game for them while Dallas falls flat after yet another big victory aided by the officiating..a recurring them in recent games for the Cowboys. Reality finally sets in this week on the road. 8* INDIANAPOLIS |
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12-15-18 | Cincinnati v. Mississippi State -3 | Top | 59-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #646 Saturday 10* Top Play Mississippi State Bulldogs (-) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 8:30 ET - As long-time followers know, I love to go against the grain. That is what my contrarian crusher picks are all about and, in this case, with a line move from -5 to -3 on the Bulldogs, I won't hesitate to step in. Keep in mind, Mississippi State is off an impressive neutral court win over Clemson last week and now they get this game at home against Cincinnati. The Bulldogs have balanced scoring with all 5 scorers averaging in double figures plus they are red hot from three point land. Hot shooting from beyond the arc can sometimes go hold WHEN a team heads on the road or is in an unfamiliar surrounding. As you can see, that should NOT be the case here as this game is at Mississippi State so the Bulldogs should remain RED HOT from outside. Keep in mind this is a revenge game from last season. Though the Bearcats won that game it was at Cincinnati and the Bulldogs were simply done in by poor shooting in the 65-50 loss. Also, gone for Cincy from that team are 3 players who accounted for 49 of the 65 points. All are playing pro ball now with 2 in the NBA and one playing professionally overseas. I also like the coaching edge in the rematch with Ben Howland over Mick Cronin. 10* MISSISSIPPI STATE |
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12-15-18 | Eastern Michigan v. Georgia Southern -3 | Top | 21-23 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #208 Saturday 10* Top Play Georgia Southern Eagles (-) vs Eastern Michigan Eagles @ 5:30 ET - Eastern Michigan is 0-3 ATS this season when they enter a game on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games. Georgia Southern is 4-0 ATS in non-conference games this season. Eastern Michigan had a late season bye and that doesn't necessarily help them here as they will be playing for just the 2nd time since their November 10th win versus Akron. Also, Eastern Michigan is 1-12 ATS when they face an opponent off B2B SU (and ATS) wins. That system fits here as Georgia Southern finished off the season with back to back wins and covers. Unlike Eastern Michigan, Georgia Southern did have a game on Saturday November 17th. This should lead to a little less "rust" for them in comparison with Eastern Michigan. Army, a ground-based attack like Georgia Southern, completely dominated time of possession in a win at Eastern Michigan in late October. Look for Georgia Southern to dominate in similar fashion with their option attack in this game. Eastern Michigan was 3-0 SU to finish the season but they benefited greatly from turnovers in those 3 games. Nothing close to that is likely to happen here as Georgia Southern has done a great job in the turnover department all season long. The ATS trends noted above are 19-1 / 95% in our favor here. 10* GEORGIA SOUTHERN |
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12-14-18 | Hawks v. Celtics -12.5 | 108-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #568 Friday 8* Boston Celtics (-) vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:05 ET - I aware of the illness and injury issues (for both teams) impacting this match-up. However, it is expected that the Celtics Gordon Hayward will play and I expect Jaylen Brown will be back too. Even if Brown is not back, the most important match-up here is Boston coach Brad Stevens (arguably the best in the business) over Atlanta coach Lloyd Price (first year coach). The Celtics already blasted the Hawks by 18 points earlier this season and that game was at Atlanta. Also, the Hawks were led in points and rebounds by Jeremy Lin in that game but he is questionable for tonight's game with back problems. Atlanta may hold him out and save him for a much more winnable game on Sunday at Brooklyn. Of course the Hawks star is Trae Young but he had a +/- rating of -35 in the first meeting between these teams this season! It is simply a complete mismatch and Boston is also the much deeper team so even the late game edge with back-ups in will be to their advantage. Also, the Celtics are on a 7-0 ATS run and are 5-0 ATS this season in games with a posted total of 220 points or ore. The Hawks are 0-5 ATS this season in games against Atlantic Division opponents. Additionally, Atlanta is 0-4 ATS in Friday games this season. The fact that the Hawks won at Boston in their last visit here (in April) also insures that the Celtics will keep their foot on the gas as they close out what should be a blowout home win here. Combined edges are 21-0 ATS in favor of the home favorite in this one. 8* BOSTON |
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12-13-18 | Chargers +3.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #301 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - This is contrarian all the way. The Chiefs have won 9 straight meetings with the Chargers and yet opened up as only a 3-point favorite at home here. Of course the line has already gone up a little (3.5 as of early game day morning) but an upset is likely here. The Chargers out-gained the Chiefs by nearly 200 yards in the first meeting in Los Angeles but fell short on the scoreboard. Payback time here. LA is on a 12-3-1 ATS run as a road dog in divisional games. Kansas City is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games. 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS |
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12-13-18 | Morehead State v. Samford -7.5 | Top | 72-77 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CBB Game #602 Thursday 10* Top Play Samford Bulldogs (-) vs Morehead State Eagles @ 7:30 ET - When I saw this game was coming up I knew I would be involved after what I witnessed Monday with Morehead State. The Eagles were down by 20 at half at Marshall and still down by 21 with under 2 minutes to go. I was holding a Thundering Herd ticket at -13. The game should be over. Inexplicably Morehead State finished the game on an 11-2 run to lose by 12. First off when a team is down that much there is no chance of a comeback and so usually the trailing team wouldn't even get off enough shots to even have a chance to score 11 points! It was one of the most unbelievable losses I have been a part of and I have been wagering for over 25 years now. We'll get payback tonight. In lined games, the Eagles have now been held to 36.2% or less from the field in 4 straight games! They are facing a Samford team that plays much better defense than they do. Morehead State is allowing 46.9% from the field this season while the Bulldogs are allowing just 37.9% from the field this season. The Eagles also do not defend the 3-point shot nearly as well as Samford does. The Bulldogs were done in by injuries last season but are well-coached and have bounced right back early this season. Samford is 8-2 on the season and the only losses were to Ohio State and an OT loss to Belmont whom plays in the same Ohio Valley Conference that Morehead State does. But Belmont won 24 games last season while the Eagles won only 8 games! Morehead State is on an 8-13 ATS run in non-conference games while the Bulldogs are 9-0 ATS this season! 10* SAMFORD |
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12-12-18 | Nets v. 76ers -7 | Top | 127-124 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #538 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers will likely be without Jimmy Butler for this game. As a result, this line has been over-adjusted too low and I am happy to step in and take advantage. Keep in mind the Sixers played nearly the entire game versus Detroit without Bulter (0 points in 10 minutes early before he got hurt) and yet they still rolled the Pistons. Also, in their prior game (also versus Pistons but at Detroit), Joel Embiid was out and Butler took over. Philadelphia has plenty of options on offense because they also have Ben Simmons and then they've seen other role players stepping up and having big games for them. Embiid shook off early rust and had a huge game versus the Pistons and so he'll carry momentum right into this match-up with the Nets. Surprisingly, Brooklyn enters this game off back to back wins but, keep in mind, the Nets had previously lost 12 of their 14 prior games! They're facing a 76ers team that is 14-1 SU at home this season! This is why I have no hesitation in laying the modest number at home here with Philly! The Sixers are 6-3 ATS (and 9-0 SU) in home games with posted total of 220 points or more this season. The Nets are only 2-12 ATS in their last 14 SU losses. In other words, when they lose SU they also have been losing ATS at a high percentage clip. Look for that trend to continue here as Embiid again takes over with Butler sitting out. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-12-18 | Massachusetts v. Temple -8.5 | Top | 63-65 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #704 Wednesday 10* Top Play Temple Owls (-) vs Massachusetts Minutemen @ 7 ET - The set-up here is perfect. The Minutemen are off a tight 1-point outright upset win as a nearly double digit dog at Providence while the Owls are off a 10 point loss to Philly rival Villanova. Temple is absolutely going to bring their "A game" tonight as a result and they also have revenge on their side. When these teams met two years ago UMass got the tight 3-point win at home despite the Owls having a double digit edge in field goal attempts. The point is that Temple just wasn't hitting their shots that night. Now the Owls get a revenge opportunity and it comes on their home floor. Additionally, the Minutemen only have 2 players back that played in that game while the players who logged the majority of the minutes for Temple in that game will be on the floor for this rematch. Massachusetts relies heavily on their 5'11 junior guard Luwane Pipkins and he is a great player. However, the Owls strength is their backcourt play and by containing (or at least limiting) Pipkins in this game, Temple will have a big edge as they are a much more balanced team than the Minutemen are. UMass is prone to turnover issues and the Owls are solid in terms of the turnover to steals ratio. In terms of technical support for this play, the Minutemen are 2-6 ATS this season and continue to be over-valued by the betting markets. Massachusetts is also 5-15 ATS in Wednesday games. The Owls are 12-4 ATS in games against teams that average 77 points or more per game. The key here being that they are much better defensively in comparison with the Minutemen. 10* TEMPLE |
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12-10-18 | Vikings +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NFL Game #133 Monday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:15 ET - The Seahawks are off a huge win and have won 3 straight games. However, Mike Zimmer's Vikings are finally getting a shot at revenge after that unbelievable playoff loss (missed chip shot FG) ended Minnesota's season. Note that Zimmer entered this season with ATS records of 25-9 when playing with revenge and 11-1 when facing an opponent off a straight up win by 10 or more points. Here Zimmer's Vikings catch Seattle off a 27 point thrashing of the 49ers. Also, in games 13 through 16 of a season Minnesota has gone 8-1 ATS as a road dog when they are facing an opponent off a home game. This game is sandwiched between divisional games for the Seahawks as they are off the Niners and then play them again at San Francisco Sunday. Seattle is 1-6 ATS in games played week before facing SF. The Seahawks were actually outgained by more than 100 yards by the 49ers last week but won the game thanks to 3 turnovers. In fact, Seattle's defense has not impressed and they allowed 28 points per game their 4 prior games and certainly should have allowed much more than 16 versus the Niners last week. Minnesota's defense did struggle at Foxboro last week versus the Patriots but, prior to that, they had been rock solid and I am expect them to return to top form in this crucial game filled with post-season impact. Grab the points here but expect the upset. 10* MINNESOTA |
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12-10-18 | Pistons v. 76ers -7 | Top | 102-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #512 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers are rested and ready here. Yes, I am aware of the Joel Embiid situation but he didn't play in the match-up with Detroit on Friday and yet the Sixers still won by a half dozen points and that game was at Detroit. While Philly has been off since Friday, the Pistons are in a tough scheduling spot here as they did battle with the Pelicans yesterday. That loss to New Orleans dropped the Pistons to 0-4 their last 4 games (SU and ATS). Not only does that make this a back to back spot for Detroit, it is also the Pistons 3rd game in the last 4 days. Detroit is 11-22 SU when playing on back to back days and 7 of their last 8 SU losses have also been ATS losses. In other words, when the Pistons do lose they usually don't cover either! As for the Sixers, when they get a SU win they usually do cover as 11 of their last 15 SU win have also been ATS wins. Philadelphia is on a 32-16 ATS run in games with a posted total of 220 or more. Also, the 76ers are on a 64-36 ATS run in home games. They are 13-1 SU in home games this season and are also 23-12 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. All factors considered, including this line being around a 7 as of early game day morning, this is a great value spot on the Sixers as they have big situational edges here. Philly has held their last 5 opponents to a combined 40% from the field! Great defensive numbers while the Pistons have allowed 50% from the field in their last 4 games. All signs point to a home blowout here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-10-18 | Morehead State v. Marshall -13 | Top | 64-76 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #880 Monday 10* Top Play Marshall Thundering Herd (-) vs Morehead State Eagles @ 7 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the Thundering Herd are off of an OT loss on Saturday and are on short rest here. However, I would argue that their scheduling situation is much better than that of the Eagles here. Morehead State has not played yet in December and is likely to be rusty. The Eagles also are walking right into a hornets nest tonight. Marshall is seeking revenge for a loss at Morehead State last season. I know the points are fairly big here but the Thundering Herd were 4-0 at home this season before the loss to Toledo Saturday and each of their last 3 home wins have come by a margin of at least 20 points. Both these teams like to play at a fast pace and with "run and gun" being the story here, the team that is NOT rusty and that is also at home and that is also playing with revenge certainly holds a large edge. Keep in mind Marshall was a pleasant surprise last season and even got a big upset win in the Big Dance too last spring. Though the Thundering Herd have underachieved early this season, this is the perfect spot for them to get on track as they take advantage of facing an Ohio Valley Conference foe that had lost 3 straight games (all by 17 or more) before blowing out a very small basketball program - Chillicothe - in their final game of November. Another key to just how much emphasis Marshall is placing on this game is that this is their final home game until mid-January! In other words, the Thundering Herd want to make the most of this opportunity and they won' take their foot off the gas here. The Eagles are 7-13 ATS in non-conference games. The Thundering Herd are 16-6 ATS when playing with 1 day or less of rest between games. 10* MARSHALL |
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12-09-18 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 23-29 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #129 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - Yes the Cowboys have a rest edge here. However, they are off a huge upset win of the Saints. Also, the Eagles lost to Dallas in Philadelphia 4 weeks ago. The revenge-seeking Eagles are 15-5 ATS as a divisional road dog. The road team is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last 3 games in this series and Philly has covered 3 of their last 4 games at Dallas. The Eagles are 6-1 ATS when off a game against the Redskins. Also, Philadelphia is gaining confidence with back to back wins for the first time this season as the Super Bowl champions look to get their swagger back. They can tie up the Cowboys for 1st in the division with a win here so there is no concern that it is "too late" in the Eagles locker room. Could the Dallas upset of the Saints leave the Cowboys a little flat here? Note that the Eagles, in divisional games, when facing an opponent off a SU home dog win, have gone 7-1 ATS! Last but not least, when head coach Doug Pederson is off a divisional game (beat Redskins last week) and playing with revenge, has gone 5-1 ATS with the Eagles. Yes I am aware of the injury issues for the Eagles secondary but look for the road dog to rise up here after the embarrassment of that home loss 4 weeks ago with their powerful defensive line play being the difference in this rematch. On the other side of the ball, Carson Wentz and company had over 400 yards of offense against the Cowboys in the first game and also did it again with over 400 yards versus the Redskins last week. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-09-18 | Tennessee +4 v. Gonzaga | Top | 76-73 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #859 Sunday 10* Top Play Tennessee Volunteers (+) vs Gonzaga Bulldogs @ 3 ET in Jerry Colangelo Classic @ Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix, AZ - As long-time followers know, I tend to be a contrarian and it is something that has served me very well through the years. This is another prime example of going against the grain. This line on #1 ranked and undefeated Gonzaga was as low as a -2 and has since been driven up to as high as a -4 in some spots. Of course this comes as no surprise as the betting markets are attracted to spots like this and also the game, though a "neutral site" is being played out west. That makes the Bulldogs the play here the way most people see it. What I see is we're getting some extra value here with an underdog that has the much better defensive stats on the season. Tennessee is the perfect example of what a "dangerous dog" is comprised of as they are allowing just 63.6 points per game on only 35.5% shooting from the field this season even though they've played a schedule that has been nearly equivalent to the strength of schedule Gonzaga has faced early this season. Keep in mind the Bulldogs barely beat Washington in their most recent game and also looked to be in trouble against Creighton (until late 2nd half) in their prior game. That is the same Bluejays team that got manhandled by Nebraska yesterday. The point is that the Bulldogs could be slightly over-rated at this point and I expect an upset here with the Vols so I will gladly grab the available points. Note that the Volunteers are 12-4 ATS when off a game in which they allowed 60 points or less. Also, Gonzaga is a long-term 7-13 ATS versus SEC opponents. 10* TENNESSEE |
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12-09-18 | Giants -3 v. Redskins | 40-16 | Win | 105 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #121 Sunday 8* New York Giants (-) @ Washington Redskins @ 1 ET - I am aware of the fact that Giants WR Odell Beckham Jr is out for this game. However, the Redskins are in far worse shape as they are down to their 3rd string QB and dealing with an injury-depleted offensive line. That said, I also like the fact that the Giants are seeking payback for a home loss to the Redskins in late October. Note that New York head coach Pat Shurmur entered this season 8-1 ATS when playing with revenge and facing an opponent off a divisional game (Washington was at Philadelphia last week) and also 8-1 ATS when playing with revenge and facing an opponent off B2B SU losses (the Redskins have lost 3 straight). Additionally, the Giants are 12-1 ATS in divisional games when they are on the road off a non-divisional SU win and facing a team off a SU loss. New York is also 4-0 ATS in games played on grass this season. Washington is 11-22 ATS after playing on Monday Night Football. Look for the short rest to again be a factor for the Redskins as the Giants, supported by their 32-3 (91%) ATS trends noted above, roll to a road rout in this one. 8* NEW YORK GIANTS |
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12-08-18 | Rockets -2.5 v. Mavs | 104-107 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Saturday 8* Houston Rockets (-) @ Dallas Mavericks @ 6:05 ET - The Rockets still remember the sickening feeling of going 0-3 on their most recent 3-game road trip. Houston doesn't want to have that feeling again and, to avoid it, they need to get a win at Dallas on Saturday. Look for them to do just that as they get revenge for an embarrassing 128 to 108 loss to the Mavericks in Houston about a week and a half ago. Houston had dominated the Mavs in recent meetings, prior to that 20-point loss, and the Rockets also are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 visits to Dallas. The Mavericks are actually 11-25 SU in divisional games and that includes 1-3 this season with the only win being the aforementioned victory over the Rockets. As for Houston, they are a long-term 48-24 SU when playing with revenge. Also, when facing a team that allows 106 points or more per game, the Rockets have gone 74-25 SU! Couple these factors with the low line posted on this game and I am laying the short number with a small road fave that will not be denied tonight after getting blown out in back to back games plus blown out the last time they faced this Mavericks team! 8* HOUSTON |
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12-08-18 | Creighton +7 v. Nebraska | Top | 75-94 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #787 Saturday 10* Top Play Creighton Bluejays (+) @ Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 6 ET - Many will be looking to back the revenge-minded home team that also has the better numbers defensively and is a Top 25 team. However, in typical contrarian fashion, I am going the other way in this game. The Bluejays have had the Cornhuskers number in recent seasons and Creighton is very comfortable (and used to) playing at Nebraska. That negates a bit of the normal home court edge in a game like this. As a result, there is even more line value here with the under-valued underdog. Creighton is up to a 7 point dog as of early game day morning and this is a team that led Gonzaga pretty late in the game before falling short in last Saturday's action. The Bluejays have played a tougher schedule than Nebraska early this season and though Creighton's numbers on defense do not impress, the Huskers are also having trouble getting stops on defense of late. That said, if this game turns into a shootout it favors the sharp-shooters of Creighton plus it is good to have the points on your side in a rivalry game that could be close late. There is just so much confidence with the Bluejays here because of the way they can score and go on huge scoring runs plus they have the added confidence of having played well at Nebraska. From a technical standpoint, I like the fact that the Jays are 16-6 ATS (and 18-4 SU!) when off a game in which they allowed 80 points or more. Nebraska is just 6-9 SU after a game in which they allowed 80 points or more. Also, the Cornhuskers are on a 2-8 ATS run when hosting the Bluejays. 10* CREIGHTON |
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12-06-18 | Jaguars +5 v. Titans | Top | 9-30 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #101 Thursday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (+) @ Tennessee Titans @ 8:20 ET - The Jaguars have had a disappointing season but that makes games like this, at this late stage in the season, even more important. In other words, here is a chance to really put a dent in the playoff hopes of a hated divisional foe. You can bank on Jacksonville wanting to make the most of this primetime opportunity with the entire NFL world watching. These are the games that see underachieving teams rise to the occasion. Riding the momentum of a shutout win over another division rival (Colts) last week, look for another strong effort from the Jags this week. Yes, Cody Kessler's career numbers at QB may not impress but he played the last two seasons in Cleveland. In other words, cut Kessler a little slack and also look for Leonard Fournette to help take some of the pressure off with some big runs. In terms of technical support here, the Jaguars are 9-1 ATS when they have a losing record, are entering a game off a SU win of less than 7 points, and are facing a divisional foe that is off a non-divisional match-up. That system fits perfectly here. Also, Jacksonville is 8-0 ATS when they are off a game versus a divisional foe in which they scored less than 7 points! Last but certainly not least, the Jags are a stellar 11-2 ATS when they dogs of less than 6 points and off a game in which they allowed less than 10 points. Look for the road dog, very strong defensively, to get revenge for the upset loss to Tennessee at home early this season as a double digit favorite. even if the Jaguars fall short of the outright win over the Titans, look for the points to still prove to be enough for the cover in this one. Supported by combined ATS trends of 28-3 (90%) per the above. 10* JACKSONVILLE |
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12-05-18 | 76ers +6 v. Raptors | Top | 102-113 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76'ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers head to Toronto in much different shape than when they traveled north of the border earlier this season. Philly now has Jimmy Butler and they also are carrying the confidence of a 3-game homestand sweep that saw them hold opponents under 99 points in all 3 games. The Sixers view this as a huge game to prove they can compete among the best in the east as most everyone has already anointed the Raptors as the highly likely Eastern Conference representative for the NBA Finals this season. Of course the Bucks and Sixers (and Celtics too once they get back on track) have a little something to say about that! Toronto's defense has struggled at times in 3 of their last 4 games. The Sixers have gotten back to playing the "right way" on the defensive end and, with Butler joining Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, this team is going to be a much tougher match-up than what Kawhi Leonard and company dealt with in late October! Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS (and 5-1 SU!) when playing with revenge this season. The 76ers are also a long-term 23-11 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Toronto is a long-term 8-18 ATS in home games with posted total of 220 points or more. Also, the Raptors are only 5-8 ATS in all home games this season. Don't be surprised if the Sixers get the upset here but I am happy to grab the generous points being offered. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-05-18 | Ohio State -5 v. Illinois | Top | 77-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #529 Wednesday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (+) vs Illinois Illini @ United Center in Chicago, IL @ 7 ET - The last time the Buckeyes faced the Illini away from Columbus they lost by 5. It is payback time here and the set-up is perfect. Ohio State is off a Big Ten home opener win and doesn't play again, after this game, until the 15th. That game will be against Bucknell. In other words, without a shadow of a doubt the Buckeyes are fully focused on this game and they are also catching a struggling Illinois team. The Illini have lost 6 of their last 7 games. The only 2 SU wins that Illinois has this season is when they were a double digit favorite. The problem with Illinois, just like last season, is defense. The Illini have allowed 7 straight opponents to make at least 46% of their shots from the field and, during this stretch they have allowed an average of better than 50% from the field for the opposition. The Buckeyes have been a pleasant surprise early this season and have been strong on both ends of the floor. They are playing well together as a cohesive group while Illinois has had issues with consistency which is not surprising given how many key players they lost from last season's team. I am aware of the injury involving Buckeyes freshman guard Luther Muhammad but Ohio State played very well without him versus Minnesota and have solid depth in their backcourt. The Buckeyes are 5-1 SU (and 4-2 ATS) against teams that allow 77 points or more per game. The Illiini are 5-11 SU (and 4-12 ATS) in neutral court games with a posted total between 145 and 149.5 points. The Buckeyes are allowing just 60 points per game this season while Illinois is allowing 77 points per game! 10* OHIO STATE |
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12-04-18 | Northeastern v. Syracuse -10 | Top | 49-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach CBB Game #720 Tuesday 10* Top Play Syracuse Orange (-) vs Northeastern Huskies @ 6:45 ET - The Orange are off a rather unimpressive effort versus Cornell. Yes they beat the Big Red but they certainly didn't dominate and their next game is going to be a Big East foe as they face Georgetown Saturday. Though that is still not a conference game for the Orange, the point is that Syracuse knows they need to clean things up sooner rather than later. Hosting Northeastern on Tuesday should provide the perfect opportunity to do just that. The Huskies are without three key players from last season and all are guards. Northeastern has been without Shawn Occeus (Colonial Defensive POY last season), Max Boursiquot (started all but 1 game last season), and Vasa Pusica. The latter of those 3 players is the Huskies best player by far and he has been out since Northeastern's big win over Alabama. The short-handed Huskies just won't have enough to get by the deeper and much more talented Orange. Syracuse also will be in "response mode" on the defensive end as they've been a little lackluster in that aspect of their game recently and head coach Jim Boeheim is demanding a strong effort in this game. As injury-riddled as Northeastern is, they still have some solid outside shooters and the Orange must contest those shots. Look for them to do just that and to dominate this game. Look for the Orange to improve to 3-0 ATS when they are a favorite in a range of 10 to 19 points this season. The Huskies drop to 0-4 ATS the last 4 times they've been a dog. 10* SYRACUSE |
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12-04-18 | Magic +2.5 v. Heat | Top | 105-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Tuesday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - The Heat were favored by 2.5 AT Orlando in their season opener and lost. That makes this a revenge game for Miami and some may be surprised to see they are again favored by 2.5 even though this game is on their home floor. However, the key is that Goran Dragic is still out for the Heat. Even though he practiced with the team Monday he has already been ruled out for Tuesday and will be missing his 8th straight game. Why is this significant? He is certainly one of Miami's best players and, in fact, led the Heat with 26 points in the first game with the Magic and that was a 3 point loss! Note that the Magic enter this game having gone 8-2-1 ATS this season on the road. As for Miami, they are a horrible 1-6 ATS in divisional games this season. Overall, Orlando is on a 10-1-1 ATS run their last dozen games and they've been off for 3 days entering this match-up. The Heat are off back to back upset wins but Miami has shot just 41% from the field in those two games. The Magic have shot 50% their last two games and will be ready for another divisional battle here. 10* ORLANDO |
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12-03-18 | Redskins v. Eagles -6 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #380 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Washington Redskins @ 8:15 ET - The Redskins are a very banged up team and the Eagles will take advantage. We're getting line value here because it has, without a doubt, been a sub-par season (to put it mildly) for the defending Super Bowl Champs. The fact is that, with a win Monday night, Philadelphia moves into a 2nd place tie with Washington in the NFC East and will be just 1 game behind the Cowboys. That said, guess what is up next on the Eagles schedule. A trip to Dallas on Sunday. In other words, the season is still very much alive for Philly despite the ups and downs they've endured. The Redskins offense is loaded with injuries and it is much more than just QB Alex Smith's devastating injury that has them in trouble here. Washington's offensive line has practically been gutted by injuries. The Eagles powerful defensive line will take advantage. Note that Philadelphia is 7-1 SU (and 6-2 ATS) in home games with an O/U posted between 42.5 and 45 points. Also, the Redskins are on a long-term 10-23 ATS run in Monday night games including 0-5 in recent seasons! The Eagles saved their season with last week's comeback win over the Giants and the way they played that 2nd half is the way they will come out and attack the Redskins right away beginning with the opening kick-off in this one. The result should be a home rout for the much healthier offense in this match-up. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-03-18 | Iowa v. Michigan State -10 | Top | 68-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #516 Monday 10* Top Play Michigan State Spartans (+) vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ 6:30 ET - The Spartans have opened up as a double digit favorite even though the Hawkeyes are very close to them in the rankings. Must be a mistake, right? Of course it is not a mistake but bettors will be attracted to Iowa as a result. Don't be fooled here as Michigan State should win this game in an absolute annihilation. The Spartans have played a tougher schedule than Iowa and also are the much deeper and much more veteran team. The Hawkeyes also were hoping for key contributions in the front-court this season from Jack Nunge and Cordell Pemsl. Both guys are out for the season. Granted they were not their stars but Iowa could ill afford to lose depth. Keep in mind this is the Hawkeyes first true road game of the season and they are 4-17 SU and 4-15 ATS in road games the past two seasons. The Spartans are a dominating 15-1 SU (and 12-4 ATS) in their last 16 home games versus Iowa. Also, Michigan State has already had wake-up calls with a loss at Louisville and a tight win at Rutgers. Remember the Spartans did lose their season opener (by just 5 points against powerful Kansas). In other words, this is a team that has already been battle tested and has proven worthy of respect. In this game, their Big Ten home opener, look for the Spartans to put one foot on the throats of the Hawkeyes and they won't take their other foot off the gas either! In other words, they dominate this one and win by 15 to 20 points. Michigan State is the much better team in terms of shooting and defense plus they've played the tougher schedule as noted above. Look for the Spartans to improve to 7-1 SU (and 6-2 ATS) on the season when favored. 10* MICHIGAN STATE |
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12-02-18 | Vikings v. Patriots -4.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Game #376 Sunday 10* Top Play New England Patriots (-) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 4:25 ET - The Patriots have won 7 of their last 8 games and when they win SU they almost always cover. The SU winner in New England's games this season is, in fact, 10-1 ATS this season and I fully expect a dominating home win and cover here. The Patriots are 8-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and also have gone 8-2 ATS in December games the past two seasons. The Vikings wins this season have all come against teams that currently have a losing record on the year. In their 3 games against teams that currently have a winning record on the season, Minnesota has gone 0-3 and all 3 losses came by 5 or more points. Those Vikings losses came against the Bears, Saints, and Rams. As for the Patriots they've played 4 games against teams that currently have a winning record. New England has gone 4-0 in those games and only one win came by less than 7 points. The average margin of victory in those 4 games was 8 points. The Pats have beaten the Colts, Texans, Bears, and Chiefs. I'll take the team that has risen to the occasion when its been required this season and I feel we're getting good value here as the spread on this game has dropped through the week. The Patriots are 12-1-1 ATS when they are off a divisional road game and now facing a non-divisional opponents. Look for the Pats to do it again Sunday after last week's blowout win at New York against the Jets. Note that last week's win for the Vikings over Green Bay was the first time in 5 tries that Minnesota has covered a game following a divisional game. After that big win over the Pack, look for the Vikes to fall flat here against a Patriots team on a typical December "mission" as the Pats are known for late season success, especially at Foxboro! 10* NEW ENGLAND |
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12-01-18 | Fresno State +1 v. Boise State | Top | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #317 Saturday 10* Top Play Fresno State Bulldogs (+) vs Boise State Broncos @ 7:45 ET in MWC Championship Game at Albertson's Stadium in Boise, ID - The Broncos continue to find a way to get past the Bulldogs in recent meetings despite the great improvement we've seen from Fresno State recently. I feel strongly however that Boise State's "luck" runs out here. The Broncos are a great team but they are not on the level they were in other recent campaigns. Though Boise State has beaten Fresno State in each of their 2 most recent meetings, the Bulldogs have had a lead in each of the last 3 games (including leads at half-time and beyond and into 4th quarter) and yet have lost each of the last 2 games. It is payback time here. I know that Boise has the location edge here but the Broncos strength is their passing game and Fresno State has a strong pass defense. That said, the key edge here is the Bulldogs potent passing attack going against a Boise State pass defense that has struggled at times this season. Winds will be light for this game so despite chilly temperatures and some light snow or light rain, the passing game can flourish with no impact expected from wind here. That said, the Bulldogs hold a big edge thanks to being the much better pass defense. Finally they get their revenge here. Boise State is 1-5 ATS in home games with a posted total between 49.5 and 56 points. Fresno State is 12-2 ATS in games against teams with a winning record. Road team revenge here for the Bulldogs. 10* FRESNO STATE |
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12-01-18 | Cincinnati v. UNLV +6.5 | Top | 65-61 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game # 580 Saturday 10* Top Play UNLV Rebels (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 6 ET - It wasn't that long ago that Bearcats head coach Mick Cronin supposedly had accepted the UNLV job and yet, when he did not, speculation ran rampant that he merely used the Rebels to gain leverage with his contract situation at Cincinnati. Note that Cronin did get a 2-year extension with the Bearcats after the UNLV "debacle". Suffice to say, emotions will be running high for this one as UNLV now hosts Cronin's Bearcats Saturday afternoon at 3 PM local time here in Vegas. Rebels head coach Marvin Menzies has done a great job rebuilding the UNLV basketball program. Even though they lost some key players from last year's team, they had a great recruiting class and have plenty of talent this season. With the young Rebels able to play host in this one, I see them holding the edge over a Cincinnati team playing its first true road game of the season. Note that the Bearcats have covered 4 straight games but they were favored my more than a dozen points in 3 of the 4 games. The Rebels are off a loss but previously had won 4 straight games and I look for them to bounce back strong here. Grab the big points here. 10* UNLV |
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12-01-18 | Texas v. Oklahoma -8 | 27-39 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #312 Saturday 8* Oklahoma Sooners (-) vs Texas Longhorns in Big 12 Championship Game @ AT & T Stadium in Arlington, TX - Big mistake by the odds makers, right? They made Oklahoma more than a TD favorite here even though each of the 3 most recent meetings have been decided by 5 or less points. Of course it is not a "mistake" folks. In typical contrarian fashion I am laying the points with the Sooners here but, of course, it is not without good reason. These teams last met on October 6th and that 3-point loss for Oklahoma ended up getting their defensive coordinator fired. Though the Sooners defense has been "up and down" since then, they have not forgotten the loss to UT as well as the subsequent dismissal of their DC. Oklahoma is a perfect 6-0 SU since that defeat and the average margin of victory has been 14 points. I am expecting an OU win by at least that margin in this "rematch" game! The Sooners are 12-6 ATS in games against teams with a winning record and 5-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Texas is 3-7 ATS when the Horns enter a game on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games. 8* OKLAHOMA |
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11-30-18 | Utah +6 v. Washington | 3-10 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #305 Friday 8* Utah Utes (+) vs Washington Huskies @ 8 ET in Pac-12 Championship Game @ Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA - The Utes are dealing with injury issues at QB and RB but they gained a lot of confidence with last week's comeback win over BYU. Utah was actually down 20 late in the 3rd quarter and then came all the way back and won the game 35 to 27. That game, of course, was not a factor in the Pac-12 so the fact the Utes closed that game strong gives them plenty of momentum now heading into the Pac-12 Championship. Of course this is a contrarian play as the early line move has gone the way of Washington. That is because of the injury situation for Utah as well as the fact that the Huskies beat the Utes by two touchdowns earlier this season. However, note that Washington has since gone 1-7 ATS as a favorite (last week's win at Washington State was a dog). I like the fact that the Utes are on a 7-2 ATS run as an underdog and 14-5 ATS run in games played on a neutral field. Utah has turned the ball over just once in its last 3 games while the Huskies turned the ball over 3 times against the Cougars last week. Washington has now turned the ball over 7 times in its last 4 games away from home. The Huskies have held the upper hand in this match-up in recent years but payback is on order for the Utes in this one. Utah has forced 11 turnovers in it last 4 games away from home. The Utes are 13-2 ATS when they are facing an opponent with a winning percentage under .850 that is coming off a SU win by a double digit margin. The Huskies, off that 13 point win at Washington State, fall short of the cover in this one and I am expecting an upset but grabbing the generous points being offered. 8* UTAH |
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11-30-18 | Jazz +2 v. Hornets | Top | 119-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #707 Friday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The Jazz got Donovan Mitchell back in their most recent game as he saw his first significant action in the past 4 games. Utah could also have newly acquired Kyle Korver on the floor for this game too. Of course he is going to be a big boost to the 3-point shooting woes the Jazz have experience. The Hornets are off back to back wins for the 4th time this season. That holds significance here as Charlotte has yet to win 3 straight games so far this season. I don't expect that to change here. Look for the Jazz to improve to 5-2 SU and ATS when coming off a non-conference game this season. The Hornets are 13-23 SU and ATS when off a divisional game. This game also involves the East vs West theory which is one that, in recent seasons, favors the West as they've been the stronger conference for many consecutive seasons now. Look for Charlotte to drop to 0-3 SU this season in games against non-conference foes. The Jazz are 13-7 SU their last 20 against Southeast Division opponents and also 40-22 SU when off a win by a double digit margin. Look for another road rout for the Jazz here. 10* UTAH |
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11-30-18 | Mississippi State -3.5 v. Dayton | Top | 65-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #725 Friday 10* Top Play Mississippi State Bulldogs (-) @ Dayton Flyers @ 7 ET - This is a revenge game for the Flyers as they lost at Mississippi State last season. However, though that was only a 2-point loss for Dayton, the Flyers were actually down by 15 points at the half. The Bulldogs let them back in the game in the second half but I expect this year's match-up to play out much differently. Mississippi State is loaded with returning talent and veteran leadership while Dayton lost some key pieces compared to the team they were two seasons ago. That said, I have no hesitation in laying the short number on the road in this one. The Bulldogs are the better team, the bigger team, and the more veteran team. Also, Mississippi State is a fantastic 32-15 ATS when they enter a game having failed to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. Additionally, the Bulldogs are on a 4-0 ATS run in Friday games. The Flyers are on a 3-7 ATS run when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. Look for Dayton to show some "rust" here as they have not played in a week and I expect the Flyers to drop to 3-6 ATS the last 9 times they've been a home dog in a range of 3.5 of 6 points. 10* MISSISSIPPI STATE |
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11-29-18 | Saints -7 v. Cowboys | Top | 10-13 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 50 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Game #301 New Orleans Saints (-) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - The Saints are 10-0 SU their last 10 games and 9-0 ATS their last 9 games. While the Cowboys certainly deserve some respect here, I am happy to lay the points here (currently some 7's available as of Wednesday evening) with one of the best and most balanced offenses in the league. Not only does that describe New Orleans, the Saints also are the #1 rush defense in the NFL! That is significant here because the Cowboys are one of the worst passing teams in the leagues. Dallas relies on Ezekiel Elliott and the ground game for success on offense and that is a problem here. Not only is Elliott up against the #1 ranked run defense, he also has been a little bothered by his hip heading into this game. Elliott is probable but is he really 100%? It may not matter anyway as the Saints are just too much offense for other teams to keep up with. The fact is that New Orleans is firing on all cylinders right now and I also like the fact that the Saints are 4-0 ATS in road games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more this season. The Cowboys are on a 1-4 ATS run in home games with a posted total of 49.5 points or more. Also, the Saints are a long-term 9-3 SU and ATS in their last dozen meetings with the Cowboys. Dallas has won 3 straight games and faced the Redskins, Falcons and Eagles. The Cowboys average margin in those 3 games was 6 points. The Saints also have recently faced the Falcons and Eagles plus also faced the Redskins in early October. The average margin of New Orleans 3 victories was 26 points - a 20 point variance from the Cowboys margin. The fact is I would not be surprised to see the Saints win this one by 20 but certainly I am expecting at least a double digit margin here. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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11-29-18 | Warriors +9.5 v. Raptors | Top | 128-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Thursday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - It is the wounded dog that bites the hardest! In other words, just because Stephen Curry and Draymond Green are likely out for this game it does not mean the Warriors are going to be a push-over for the Raptors. Golden State has been getting the job done even without these guys and I like the fact that the Warriors have held their last 3 opponents to a combined 42.9% from the field. The Raptors burned me at Memphis Tuesday as they rallied from a 17 point deficit and they got the win and cover at the Grizzlies despite Toronto attempting just 69 shots from the field. The fact is that the Raptors have allowed 10 field goal attempts more than they've taken in their last 3 games combined. Were it not for a ridiculous 61% shooting percentage from the field at Memphis Tuesday, the Raptors never would have won that game and they're certainly not repeating that effort against the Warriors tonight. Golden State will be "dialed in" on defense tonight because, even with missing a few guys, the last thing they want to do is get blown out in a possible NBA finals preview. The Warriors will bring their "A game" for this one. When GS is on an over streak of 3 or more consecutive overs, they've gone 14-6 ATS in recent seasons including a perfect 3-0 ATS this season! Toronto is 0-3 ATS this season in home games against Western Conference opponents. More of the same here. 10* GOLDEN STATE |
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11-28-18 | Wizards v. Pelicans -6 | Top | 104-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #716 Wednesday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (-) vs Washington Wizards @ 8:05 ET - The Wizards have shot a ridiculously high percentage from the field in their last two games. One of those was against the Pelicans. However, both of those games were in Washington and I don't expect the Wizards to stay hot now that they are on the road for this one. The Wizards are just 2-7 SU on the road this season while New Orleans is 8-2 SU at home this season. Now, of course, we need more than just a SU win to get the cash here. However, note that Washington is 0-7 ATS when they lose on the road. In other words, when the Wizards lose, they don't cover either when away from home! As for the Pelicans, the average margin of their 8 home wins this season is 11 points and I expect another double digit win as they are in full-on revenge mode for this one. The Pelicans have been swept in each of the past two seasons by the Wizards and they want to avoid that same fate this season by coming up with a huge win here. I expect them to do just that! Washington is 0-3 SU and ATS in road games with a posted total of 230 points or more this season. Look for the Pelicans to improve to 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in home games with a posted total of 230 points or more this season. Payback revenge game on tap here and the half-dozen points means a very manageable line for what should be a home blowout. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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11-28-18 | Syracuse +5.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 72-62 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #737 Wednesday 10* Top Play Syracuse Orange (+) @ Ohio State Buckeyes @ 7:15 ET - Coming into the season I had Syracuse ranked much higher than Ohio State. So far this season the Orange have underachieved while the Buckeyes overachieved. The result is that Ohio State is ranked and Syracuse unranked heading into this match-up. Keep in mind, the Orange just got back senior guard Frank Howard and he had 5 assists in 19 minutes in his first game back. Syracuse, with Howard back, is a much different team. The Orange have plenty of talent and plenty of veteran leadership to beat a team like the Buckeyes on Ohio State's home floor. That said, the fact that we're getting about a half-dozen points here too make this one a "must play" in my book. Syracuse is well-rested here and they've gone 6-2 SU and ATS the past two seasons when they enter a game with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. The Buckeyes are 8-14 ATS in games with a posted total in the 130s and Ohio State is an ugly 11-18 ATS their last 29 non-conference games. Big time line value with the underdog Orange in this one. 10* SYRACUSE |
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11-28-18 | Knicks v. 76ers -12.5 | 91-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #702 Wednesday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - The Knicks are in a tough back to back spot while the 76ers have had two days off heading into this one. Also, Philly wants to make up for the most recent home game. That was a loss to the Cavaliers and ended the Sixers unbeaten start in home games that saw them begin the season 10-0 at home. Note that Philadelphia is still a long-term 61-36 ATS in home games. Also, the 76ers are also 53-29 ATS in games against teams averaging 106 points or more per game. The Knicks had won 3 straight games before last night's loss but this back to back is a tough situation for them. New York is just 1-4 ATS this season when they are off a road game in their prior game and are facing an Eastern Conference foe. The Sixers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Knicks and that huge success at the betting window continues in this series Wednesday. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-27-18 | Lakers v. Nuggets -4 | Top | 85-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA Game #510 Tuesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 9:05 ET - While the Lakers are off a loss and looking to bounce back here, they are still without guard Rajon Rondo. Playing without your starting point guard is never fun but this is particularly true when you are on the road at Denver! Not only is Denver a tough place to play, the Nuggets have revenge on their minds here and they are likely to have guard Gary Harris back in the lineup for this one. Even if they don't, other stepped up in his absence Saturday as the Nuggets upset the Thunder at Oklahoma City. Denver is back on track with 3 straight wins and they are hungry for revenge here against LeBron James and company! The home team is 7-1 SU (and ATS!) in the last 8 meetings between these teams. Also, the Nuggets are 4-0 SU and ATS this season when they enter a game on an "under" streak of 3 or more games. The fact is that Denver has been playing very well on the defensive end and that is noteworthy here as the Lakers are having issues with turnovers in recent games. The Lakers are just 5-9 ATS their last 14 games and this is not the time or place for them to turn things around! 10* DENVER |
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11-27-18 | Raptors v. Grizzlies +4.5 | 122-114 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Game #506 Tuesday 8* Memphis Grizzlies (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - This one sets up perfectly. The Raptors have won 5 straight games but are on the road here and have a huge "potential NBA finals preview" on deck as they host the Warriors Thursday! As for Memphis, they are off back to back losses and the Grizzlies have not lost 3 straight games yet this season! In other words, a bounce back is likely for Memphis in this one! The Grizzlies are 7-2 SU and ATS in home games this season! Also, against teams that average 106 points or more, Memphis is a rock solid 105 SU and ATS this season! Toronto is on a 9-19 ATS run in Tuesday games and I look for the Raptors to drop to 0-3 ATS so far this season when facing a Southwest Division opponent. From a situational standpoint, this is a great spot to back the home dog! 8* MEMPHIS |
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11-27-18 | Virginia Tech v. Penn State +2.5 | Top | 62-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #518 Tuesday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) vs Virginia Tech Hokies @ 7 ET - The public will be backing the ranked road team in this one. However, the home dog should prove to be the correct side. The Hokies are still without guard Chris Clarke and Virginia Tech is facing an angry Penn State team here. The Nittany Lions are off a low-scoring loss to Bradley where they shot horribly and, as a result, they can't wait to get back on the floor. Keep in mind, Penn State won 26 games last season and they are being undervalued here in this spot. The Nittany Lions are 13-7 ATS when off a game in which they allowed 60 points or less. Also, PSU is 5-1 ATS when off a game in which they scored 60 points or less. In road games with a posted total between 140 and 144.5 points, the Hokies are a long-term 9-20 SU and that includes 2-4 SU in recent seasons. The home team has won 3 of the 4 meetings between these teams and I look for that trend to continue here as Virginia Tech has enjoyed particular success with 3-pointers (41.4% this season) but they're facing a Nittany Lions perimeter defense that has surrendered just 22.9% from beyond the arc this season! 10* PENN STATE |
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11-27-18 | Senators v. Flyers -1.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NHL Game #54 Tuesday 8* Philadelphia Flyers Puck Line -1.5 goals (+140) vs Ottawa Senators @ 7 ET - The Flyers shocked the NHL world with the firing of GM Ron Hextall after an embarrassing 6-0 loss at Toronto. I look for Philadelphia to respond in a big way on home ice Tuesday. The Flyers are a 2 to 1 favorite on the money line here with good reason. Philly can take advantage of a Senators team that is in a back to back spot and has struggled on the road all season long. Of course I don't lay big prices on money lines but I am happy to take the puck line in a spot like this and get a plus money return that is high as +140 as of early gameday morning. I like the fact that 7 of the Flyers 10 wins this season have come by a margin of 2 or more goals. Also, 12 of Ottawa's last 14 losses have come by 2 or more goals! You can see why any Senators loss here (which is likely) is also quite likely to come by a multiple-goal margin. The Flyers certainly have had goaltending issues this season (and have been plagued by injuries at the position) but the Senators netminding is arguably in even worse shape. This is a back to back spot for the Sens and Anderson is likely to get a rest. With Condon still out that means McKenna is likely to get the start. This will be just the 2nd start of the season for McKenna and he has struggled in his 4 appearances (1 start) this season. Ottawa has lost 15 of 23 when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games on the road. The Flyers roll at home just like they did in a 4-0 win over the Rangers prior to the ugly loss at Toronto. 8* PHILADELPHIA Puck Line -1.5 goals +140 |
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11-26-18 | Rockets -2.5 v. Wizards | 131-135 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Game #705 Monday 7* Houston Rockets (-) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The Rockets are off back to back losses. Houston has outshot their opponents by 29 field goal attempts the 4 times this season that they've entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. The point being that the Rockets work a little harder in situations like this and I expect that to be the case again here on Monday as they don't want to end this 3-game road trip without a victory! Houston has shot 50% or better from the field in 4 of their last 6 games. The Wizards are off a strong shooting performance Saturday but that has been the exception rather than the norm of late. Washington, prior to defeating New Orleans, had shot just 42.4% from the field in their 4 prior games. The Wizards are just 3-7 SU and ATS versus Western Conference foes this season. The Rockets are 67-37 SU (and 62-42 ATS) in their last 104 road games and get the job done again here. 7* HOUSTON |
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11-25-18 | Packers +3.5 v. Vikings | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #271 Sunday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 8:20 ET - Both the Packers and Vikings are off losses last week and, as a result, with the Bears win over the Lions on Thanksgiving Day, Chicago is running away with the NFC North Division. That means this game features a match-up of two teams desperately trying to stay alive in the playoff picture. Even though the first game between these teams this season finished in a tie, this truly is a revenge game for the Packers. Green Bay, at home, had a 13-point lead entering the 4th quarter of that match-up. Also, the Packers gave up a touchdown AND the 2-point conversion with less than a minute to go in the game. Suffice to say, Aaron Rodgers and Company have had this game circled in red ever since! Keep in mind the Vikings were also helped in that 4th quarter comeback by a controversial roughing the passer penalty. I am well aware of the fact that Green Bay is 0-5 SU on the road this season. As long-time followers know I tend to be a contrarian and this is particularly true in the NFL. Ask yourself this: how can the Vikings be favored by only about a FG here when they are 9-2 SU their last 11 at home and Packers are 0-5 SU their last 5 on the road? Exactly! When things look too easy they truly never are and I expect Green Bay to finally get that first road win Sunday night in a crucial game. I will grab the points, currently available at +3.5, as added "insurance" though should the Packers fall just short. GB is off a Thursday game so they do have extra rest and the Packers are 5-0 ATS when off a Thursday game. The Packers match-up very well with the Vikings and their biggest weakness (run defense) is one the Vikings (#31 out of 32 for rush offense) are unlikely to be able to take advantage of. That said, I'll take Rodgers over Kirk Cousins as the Vikings QB is 4-12 in primetime games in his career! 10* GREEN BAY PACKERS |
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11-25-18 | Dolphins +8.5 v. Colts | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #265 Sunday 8* Miami Dolphins (+) @ Indianapolis Colts @ 4:25 ET - The Colts have won 4 straight games for the first time in 4 years. The Dolphins enter off their bye week. Miami has been struggling but has the rest edge here and will avenge a 2015 home loss to Indianapolis. The Dolphins out-gained the Colts by nearly 100 yards in that game but lost by 6 points. Miami is 7-1 ATS the last 8 times they've faced the Colts at Indianapolis! The Colts entered this season having gone 1-10 ATS when they are facing an opponent with a winning percentage over .400 that is off a SU/ATS loss. That system fits here as the Dolphins were crushed by the Packers before their bye week. Also, Indianapolis is in a divisional sandwich here as they faced the Titans last week and have Jacksonville on deck. The Colts are 2-7 ATS when they have a game with the Jaguars on deck. Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS when off a game in which they scored more than 35 points. Also, the Colts are 1-6 ATS when off a win by a double digit margin against an AFC opponent. A lot of technical data to like here and this one sets up perfectly from a situational standpoint as well. Grab the generous points. 8* MIAMI |
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11-25-18 | Browns v. Bengals +1 | 35-20 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NFL Game #260 Sunday 8* Cincinnati Bengals (-) vs Cleveland Browns @ 1 ET - This line has gone from the Bengals being a 3-point choice to now being a pick'em in this game as of early Sunday morning. I love the value we're getting here with a Bengals team that has former Browns head coach Hue Jackson serving as an assistant to Cincinnati head coach Marvin Lewis. Jackson joined the staff of Lewis two weeks ago after being fired by the Browns. Of course Jackson knows the Browns very well and, of course, there is plenty of motivation here. Cleveland is on an ugly 6-15 ATS run in divisional games. The Bengals are on a 7-0 SU (and ATS!) run in their last 7 games with the Browns! They've crushed them by an average margin of 21 points per game. More of the same expected here. 8* CINCINNATI |
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11-24-18 | Utah State +3 v. Boise State | Top | 24-33 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 52 m | Show |
The CFB Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #181 Saturday 10* Top Play Utah State (+) over Boise State @ 10:15 ET - Utah State's ground game is producing 217 yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry. Boise State's rushing attack is producing 159 yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry. The Aggies also have an edge in terms of pass defense on the season. Utah State is allowing only 52.3% pass completions and 6.6 yards per pass attempt. Boise State is allowing 63% pass completions and 8.2 yards per pass attempt. The winner of this game goes to the Mountain West title game (will face Fresno State) and Boise State is a popular choice here due to their very successful home record over many seasons. This home factoring for the Broncos is of course already playing a big role in the line because the Aggies are such a strong team and yet are getting points here due to Boise State's high success rate in home games.. The result here is line value with Utah State. The Aggies are seeking revenge for a blowout loss at home versus Boise State last season. Utah State was out-gained by only 26 yards in the prior year's meeting (at Boise State) and the year before that the Aggies blew out the Broncos 52-26. The point is that Utah State (last year notwithstanding) was starting to turn the corner in this series (under head coach Matt Wells) and I expect that to continue here on Saturday night. Also, the Broncos are off a big win at New Mexico and they are on an 0-5 ATS run when off a game against the Lobos. Of course that 5-0 ATS play against situation is in play here as Boise State is off a trip to New Mexico. The Aggies do enter this game on a 10-game winning streak SU. Also, the Broncos are 4-8 ATS their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. I expect an upset win here and won't be surprised when the Aggies win this game in a road rout. 10* Utah State |
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11-24-18 | Notre Dame v. USC +12 | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #226 Saturday 8* USC Trojans (+) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 8 ET - Huge line move toward Notre Dame here has opened up solid underdog value with home dog USC. The home team is actually on a 5-0 run (both SU and ATS) in this series. After what happened last season at South Bend (worst loss ever for Trojans in this storied long-time rivalry), I look for Southern Cal to give the Irish all they can handle here. Yes, it has been a down season for the Trojans this season and they need to get the upset win here to become bowl eligible. However, USC would be highly motivated here even if that wasn't the case. I know Notre Dame has had a fine season of course but the Trojans (despite their 5-6 record) are still a very talented football team that has played a schedule with a strength level just as strong as the one the Fighting Irish have faced. Also, Notre Dame is on a 3-6 ATS run in games played on grass and 3-8 ATS run in November games. Southern Cal is on an 8-2 SU run (and 7-3 ATS) in November games. The Trojans are 6-2 ATS the last 8 times they've hosted ND. Also, the Fighting Irish are on an 0-5 ATS run when they are off a game in which they scored more than 35 points and are on the road and facing a team playing with revenge. That systems fits perfectly here and I love the big home dog in a game that will be much more competitive than many are expecting. 8* SOUTHERN CAL |
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11-24-18 | SMU v. Tulsa +3 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Game #218 Saturday 8* Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) vs SMU Mustangs @ 3:30 ET - This line opened up with SMU barely favored. As expected the Mustangs have moved up to being a 3 point choice as of early game-day morning. Of course everyone jumped on the opportunity to fade a 2-9 Tulsa team. The Golden Hurricane, though only playing for pride, are looking to make the most of senior day and would love to spoil the Mustangs hopes of becoming bowl eligible. Though SMU certainly has some motivation to get the 6th win, don't underestimate the fact that they also have to be deflated after last week. Why? Well the Mustangs entered last week still having a shot at getting to the AAC title game. But SMU lost 28-18 at Memphis and was outgained 208 to 25 on the ground! Now the Mustangs go from playing for a shot to reach the AAC championship game to just playing to make a bowl. Certainly that is still motivation but how much will SMU have left in the tank? I feel it won't be enough to get by a Tulsa team looking to close out the season with a big home win and whom would love to end SMU's bowl hopes. The Golden Hurricane are allowing just 24.8 points per game in home games this season. The Mustangs are allowing 42.4 points per game in road games this year! SMU is a long-term 16-29 ATS in games with a line between +3 and -3. Look for the Mustangs to drop to 4-8 (both ATS and SU) in games played in November. 8* TULSA |
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11-24-18 | Michigan -4.5 v. Ohio State | 39-62 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #161 Saturday 8* Michigan Wolverines @ Ohio State Buckeyes @ Noon ET - The first reaction here is to look at this game the line as "off" because the Wolverines are laying more than a field goal at Ohio State. Of course the reality is that Michigan is the much better team this season and this line is absolutely justified. In fact, this is a game that the Wolverines should win by a double digit margin and that is the reason this one easily earned a spot on my Saturday card. Michigan is allowing just 13.5 points and 234.8 yards per game on the season. The Buckeyes are allowing 24.6 points and 398.6 yards per games on the year. Ohio State did have a strong recent performance at Michigan State and defeated the Spartans by a final score of 26-6. However, in their other 3 games since mid-October, the Buckeyes have allowed 43.7 points per game and 508 yards per game. The opponents for those games were Maryland, Nebraska, and Purdue. NONE of those three teams have managed a winning record this season. Now the Buckeyes host a Michigan team that has won 10 straight games since their season opening loss to Notre Dame. Also, in that season-opening loss the Wolverines did outgain the Fighting Irish. Of course ND is now 11-0 on the season entering today's action. In other words, Michigan has impressed all season long. The Wolverines have gone 10-0 SU their last 10 and allowed just 12.5 points per game. during the win streak. Michigan has scored at least 31 points in 8 of those 10 games. The Wolverines are 4-0 ATS this season in games against teams with a winning record. Ohio State is mired in a 1-6 ATS skid. 8* Michigan |
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11-23-18 | Northern Iowa v. Old Dominion -7 | Top | 65-72 | Push | 0 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #534 Friday 10* Top Play Old Dominion Monarchs (-) vs Northern Iowa Panthers @ 7 ET - Had my eyes on this match-up all along as these teams were in a tournament in the Virgin Islands and did end up meeting already this season in that tourney. Old Dominion lost that game by a single point to Northern Iowa even though the Monarchs had a dozen more shot attempts from the field than the Panthers in that one. The point is that it was simply an "off" shooting night for Old Dominion but now they get a chance at revenge and the opportunity comes on their home floor where the Monarchs are fully capable of a dominating effort. Yes, Old Dominion lost some talent from last season's very successful team but they've "reloaded" well and Northern Iowa lost much more and certainly has been in a bit of a stagnant cycle in recent seasons. Note also that the Panthers are 9-21 ATS as an underdog, 5-18 ATS in road games, 3-12 ATS in road games with a posted total in the 120s, and 5-18 ATS when off a game in which they were held to 60 points or less! Long-term the Monarchs are 45-9 SU as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Couple that with Northern Iowa's poor ATS record as an underdog (plus the strong situational edge here) and you can see why a big home win (and cover!) is in the forecast for this one! 10* OLD DOMINION |
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11-23-18 | Central Florida v. South Florida +14.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #134 Friday 10* Top Play South Florida Bulls (+) vs Central Florida Knights @ 4:15 ET - South Florida started the season 7-0 but has now lost 4 straight games. Certainly the Bulls were over-rated earlier this season. However, they are now at home catching 14.5 points (as of early Friday morning) in this rivalry game with Central Florida and they are catching the Knights at the perfect time. That is because UCF is off a huge win over Cincinnati last week. That game was expected to be a war (Knights at home and favored by just 7) and yet Central Florida won easily. It is off that type of game (with so much anticipation leading into it) that a team can end up struggling in the very next game. I do expect UCF to get the win here but by just a single score! South Florida is 8-2 (80%) ATS when they are facing a team with a winning record that is off a SU win by a double digit margin. Of course that system fits here for the Bulls and that was truly a massive victory for UCF last week. Long-term USF is on an 8-4 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record. Also, the Bulls are 3-0 ATS as an underdog in a range of 10.5 to 21 points and 2 of the 3 wins were outright upsets! Don't be surprised if USF gives Central Florida all they can handle in this one and it goes down to the wire. 10* SOUTH FLORIDA |
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11-22-18 | Falcons +13.5 v. Saints | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #109 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 8:20 ET - The Saints are stream-rolling everyone right now so, of course, they're a popular choice in this match-up. However, their line is truly over-inflated and New Orleans is facing a division rival that, before a tight loss earlier this season, had beaten them in 3 of the last 4 games. Also, 2 of the Falcons last 4 visits to New Orleans have resulted in outright wins. I am not necessarily expecting an upset here but I am expecting the Falcons to stay well within this large number. How many times has Atlanta lost by more than 10 points to the Saints in the past 13 meetings? ZERO! Also, the Falcons are on an 11-3 ATS run in Thursday games. The Saints, under coach Sean Payton, are an ugly 1-10 ATS when they are off a SU win by double digits, and facing an opponent off back to back SU losses! Also, under coach Payton, New Orleans is a poor 2-13 ATS as a favorite off a non-divisional game and facing a divisional opponent whom is playing with revenge. These are strong systems that each favor the big road dog Falcons here. The Saints are also 5-13 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points. Statistically these teams match up much more closely than their won-loss records would lead you to believe. Look for this one to be tight all the way which means HUGE value with the BIG points. 10* ATLANTA |
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11-22-18 | Mississippi State -12 v. Ole Miss | Top | 35-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #113 Thursday 10* Top Play Mississippi State Bulldogs (+) @ Ole Miss Rebels @ 7:30 ET - As a general rule, it is a good idea to at least take a look at the underdog in rivalry games. That's because rivalry games have a bit of an "anything can happen" theme and also because they tend to play out "tighter" than many other games with less blowouts. However, just as with anything "typical" there are exceptions and this is one of them. Last year the Rebels upset the Bulldogs at Mississippi State and this is a legitimate revenge situation and the situation is absolutely perfect to back the revenging team. Why? Because the Bulldogs are so much better than the Rebels this season! Ole Miss is on an 0-4 SU run. Also, the Rebels have gone 0-7 ATS in SEC games this season! Mississippi is allowing nearly 500 yards per game this season! Conversely, Mississippi State's fantastic defense has allowed just 12.8 points per game and only 275.6 yards per game. The Bulldogs defense gave up just 24 points when they faced Alabama while the Rebels defense game up 62 points when they faced the Crimson Tide! Mississippi State has allowed 13 points or less in 8 of 11 games this season. Ole Miss has allowed at least 31 points in 5 straight games! The Rebels are allowing 36.3 points this season. The Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS as a favorite this season while Mississippi is 0-5 ATS as an underdog this season. After losing QB Fitzgerald to injury in last season's game against the Rebels and eventually losing the game too (by 3 as a double digit favorite) it is payback time in 2018's meeting! 10* MISSISSIPPI STATE |
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11-21-18 | Pelicans +4.5 v. 76ers | Top | 120-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Wednesday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Philadelphia 76'ers @ 7:05 ET - The 76'ers will be the popular choice here as they are yet to lose a game at home this season. However, the Pelicans are 4-0 SU in games against Eastern Conference foes this season and that includes 3-0 SU versus Atlantic Division opponents. Those wins including a double digit victory for New Orleans at Toronto last week. The Pelicans have been red hot with their shooting and the 76ers certainly haven't been known for their defense this season. The Sixers added Jimmy Butler in the huge deal with Minnesota but the Markelle Fultz saga continues and J.J. Redick is listed as questionable for tonight's game. Philly is 1-6 ATS this season after scoring 115 points or more in their prior game. The Pelicans are 4-1 SU (and ATS) when off a win by a double digit margin this season. Rolling with momentum after knocking off the Spurs Monday, the Pelicans get the job done again on the road at Philly Wednesday. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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11-21-18 | CS-Fullerton +4.5 v. Hofstra | Top | 71-80 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #531 Wednesday 10* Top Play Cal State Fullerton Titans (+) @ Hofstra Pride @ 7 ET - Though the Titans are all the way on the East Coast for this game they were already out east for a tournament in Myrtle Beach, SC that wrapped up over the weekend. That said, this is not too bad of a travel situation for Cal State Fullerton. I like the fact that the Titans have veteran leadership, strong guard play and are the better team defensively in comparison with Hofstra. The Pride have allowed 47.8% shooting in their games this season while the Titans have allowed only 36.1% from the field! Cal State Fullerton took Arizona State to double OT in their first game this season and also is battle-tested after games against Wake Forest and Central Florida in the just-completed Myrtle Beach tourney. The Pride have been a covering machine this season (4-0 ATS thus far) but I have not been impressed with their play on the defensive end thus far and that will prove to be their undoing here. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, the Pride are on a 16-27 ATS run. Hofstra also is on an ugly 4-12 ATS run in home games with a posted total between 145 and 149.5 points. I am expecting an upset here but will gladly grab the points. 10* CAL STATE FULLERTON |
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11-20-18 | Northern Illinois v. Western Michigan +6 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #102 Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Michigan Broncos (+) vs Northern Illinois Huskies @ 7 ET - The Broncos have a number of situational edges here. The Huskies already have clinched a spot in the MAC Championship Game so they really have nothing to play for there. The Broncos, though they do have 6 wins to have already clinched bowl eligibility, would certainly like to improve their bowl possibilities. Also, it is Western Michigan that is playing with revenge here as they lost last year's game by 4 points at Northern Illinois. Though the Broncos have lost 3 straight games they didn't play as bad in the two ugly losses as what the final scores from those games show. Additionally, in last week's 1 point loss to Ball State, Western Michigan actually outgained the Cardinals by about 200 yards. Also, the Huskies are averaging just 308 yards per game on the road this season and it will be tough for them to get much of a margin in this game (if they even do prevail) as, other than a big win at Akron, Northern Illinois has averaged just 16.6 points per game in their other 5 road games. The home team in this series has won 4 of the last 5 games SU in this series and the Broncos are catching about 6 points in this one. The Huskies are on a 3-7 ATS run as a favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. This is an "ugly home dog" play but this is the kind of late season situation that gets the cash more often than not. I expect an upset with the Broncos but will grab the extra insurance with the generous points being offered. 10* WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-20-18 | Bradley +3 v. SMU | Top | 75-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #757 Tuesday 10* Top Play Bradley Braves (+) vs SMU Mustangs @ 6 ET in the Cancun Challenge - Riviera Division at Hard Rock Arena @ Riviera Maya Cancun - The Braves finally turned the corner last season in their multi-season rebuild. Now they return most of their key talent from last year and it has already been a 3-1 start to this season. Look for Bradley to stay hot here as SMU is dealing with some injury issues and the Mustangs just haven't looked as strong early this season as the Braves have. SMU is allowing 44.4% from the field this season and 39.2% from three point land. Bradley is allowing just 41.4% from the field and only 30.9% from three point land. In a neutral court game with a posted total between 130 and 134.5 points, the Braves are 7-3 ATS. The Mustangs are 19-36 ATS in neutral court games. SMU is also a long-term 28-40 ATS in November games. The early line move has been toward the Mustangs here and I am going contrarian and grabbing the value on the other side with the mid-major school, the Braves. 10* BRADLEY |
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11-19-18 | Nuggets +5 v. Bucks | 98-104 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 40 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Monday 8* Denver Nuggets (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - The contrarian theory again is in play here as most are going to gravitate toward the Bucks in this one since they are laying such a short number at home. I am happy to be on the revenge minded road dog. The Nuggets are 3-1 SU and ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge and they're looking for payback after dropping one to the Bucks in Denver recently. The Bucks are off a win and that is certainly significant. Why? Because since their red hot October to being the season, Milwaukee has been unable to win consecutive games! In the month of November the Bucks have alternated wins and losses and I look for that pattern to continue here. 8* DENVER |
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11-18-18 | Vikings +2.5 v. Bears | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #457 Sunday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - Huge game in the NFC North and a rare situation in that the Vikings are having to look UP in the standings at the Bears! Minnesota has won 3 straight games against Chicago and the Vikings are also off their bye week. They will be "more than ready" in this opportunity to leapfrog the Bears for the top spot in the division. Even though Chicago has won 3 straight games, those victories all came against teams that not only have losing records on the season but actually each have only 3 wins on the season! The Vikings have played a tougher schedule than the Bears this season and yet have managed to hang "right there" with Chicago in the standings. Keep in mind the Vikings got an ATS win (or at worst "push") at the LA Rams earlier this season, they also beat the defending Super Bowl Champions in an outright upset AT Philly, and they also outgained the Saints by over 150 yards in their loss to New Orleans! Those are some strong performances against respectable teams and I feel we're getting great value here against a Bears team that, though improved, still has to show they can rise up in a huge game like this. Keep in mind that Chicago hasn't played a playoff game since 2010. The Vikings have played in 3 playoff games in the past 3 seasons under head coach Mike Zimmer. The reason I mention this is because this game is going to be played at a "playoff-level intensity" and the battle-tested Vikings have an edge in this type of game in my opinion. Note that head coach Zimmer has produced a 13-1 ATS record his last 14 in games against teams that are off a SU win by a double digit margin in their prior game. Also, Zimmer is 16-5 ATS when off a divisional game. The Bears are on a 5-16 ATS run when playing the 2nd of B2B home games. Last, but certainly not least, here is an interesting "kicker" to wrap this one up. Chicago is 0-12 ATS in divisional games when they are off a double digit SU win in which they also scored more than 28 points. Beautiful set-up here. 10* MINNESOTA |
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11-18-18 | Eagles +8 v. Saints | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #459 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 4:25 ET - The Saints are on a tremendous roll and looking like the best team in the NFL. The Eagles have played this season as just a shadow of the team that, in February, staked their claim as the best team in the NFL. Now Philadelphia gets a chance to knock their replacement, New Orleans, off their pedestal. I know this is a contrarian play but it is the type of situation that has cashed for me so many times in the past, it is the reason it is worthy of big investment for me in this situation Sunday. The Saints have won 8 straight games SU and they've won 7 straight games ATS. Conversely, the Eagles have lost 4 of their last 6 games SU. Also, Philadelphia is on an ugly 2-6 ATS skid since winning and covering their opening game this season. Why then the play on the Eagles? There is still plenty of talent on this team. Ever since the ugly road loss at Tampa Bay they've played better away from Philly this season than they have at home. They lost in OT at Tennessee but crushed the Giants in New York and beat the Jaguars in London. Granted not great teams but they've not lost a road game by more than 6 points all season. Even that ugly loss to TB was decided by just 6 points. In fact, the Eagles blowout win over the Giants is the only game they've been involved in this season that was decided by more than 7 points. The point is that these are still the defending super bowl champs and they are not an easy team to blowout no matter who you are. They are a strong team in the trenches on both sides of the ball and offensive lineman Lane Johnson has been upgraded to probable for this game. The Eagles are a much better team (proven by long-term records) when Johnson is out there. This is a key to success on offense, and keep in mind, the Saints defense ranks 27th based on points allowed this season. Yes New Orleans has a fantastic offense but the Eagles defense ranks 5th based on points allowed this season. Philadelphia has a dangerous pass rush and also does a great job of stopping the run. The Saints defense is one of the worst in the league for qb sacks. New Orleans is 3-7 ATS as a home favorite in non-divisional action and they have a big divisional game with Falcons on deck. The Eagles are 4-1 ATS as a road dog. Also, under coach Doug Pederson, Philly is 5-1 ATS when off a SU loss and facing an opponent that is off a SU win by double digits. That system fits perfectly here as the Saints blasted the Bengals last week. Also, one final "kicker" here that is also in play. New Orleans is 0-7 ATS when off a SU win by double digits and facing a non-divisional opponent that has a looking record on the season! Don't be surprised if the Eagles pull off the shocker here and win this game outright to improve on the ugly 4-5 season record they have. At the very least, they should get the cover and stay inside this inflated number! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-18-18 | Cowboys v. Falcons -3 | 22-19 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #454 Sunday 8* Atlanta Falcons (-) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - Good line value here because, as stated before, the betting markets have a short term memory. As a result, in a case like this, because the Cowboys are off the upset win of the Eagles and the Falcons are off an upset loss to the Browns, this line is being kept lower than it should be. The fact is that Atlanta had turned the corner before losing at Cleveland as they had won 3 straight. Also, Dallas had lost all 4 road games prior to that upset win. Now, in large part because of last week's results, we're able to get the Falcons laying just a field goal at home against the Cowboys. In games 9 through 12 of a season, Atlanta is 7-0 ATS when facing a team that has a losing record on the season and is off a SU divisional win. Of course that system fits perfectly here with the 4-5 Cowboys off the big upset at Philly. The Falcons have dominated Dallas in recent meetings and, in fact, the Cowboys are a poor 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games versus NFC South opponents. That means this play is supported by combined edges on a 17-1 / 94% ATS run. 8* ATLANTA |
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11-18-18 | Steelers -5 v. Jaguars | 20-16 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #471 Sunday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (-) @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - This line was up around a TD and has dropped to a 5 as of early Sunday morning. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the move and laying the points with the road favorite here. Many are surprised to see a team that came inches from the super bowl last season getting so many points on their home field. However, the Jaguars have faded big time this season and can't be trusted while the Steelers offense is rolling and should be able to pile up plenty of points here. Pittsburgh has averaged 35.4 points their last 5 games. Jacksonville has allowed 28.6 points per game their last 5 games. The Steelers have won and covered 5 straight games while the Jaguars have lost 5 straight games SU and also have not gotten a single ATS win during this streak. There are two other keys here besides the current level of play of these team teams. The Steelers have a rest edge here since they had the Thursday game last week and also, the big one is that Pittsburgh has revenge from January's playoff loss (at home!) to the Jaguars. It is payback time here. I know Jacksonville has good ATS history versus the Steelers, particularly when at home, but this Jags team is a mess right now. Also, as home dog of 3.5 to 7 points, Jacksonville is a long-term 9-20 ATS! I also like the fact that the Steelers are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. That SU dominance is noteworthy here as the team that has been the SU winner in every single Jaguars game and every single Pittsburgh game this season has been the ATS winner. Look for that trend to remain perfect here as the Steelers win and get the road cover in doing so. 8* PITTSBURGH |
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11-17-18 | Iowa State +3 v. Texas | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #417 Saturday 10* Top Play Iowa State Cyclones (+) @ Texas Longhorns @ 8 ET - This is the classic situation where I like backing the underdog. The higher ranked team is at home and is laying (in many spots) less than a field goal. Also, the team that is ranked higher is also off a big road win. This is the type of situation where many are enticed to simply lay the small number with the home team when the reality is there is good reason the line is so low. I expect a lot of points to be scored in this game and I expect that to favor Iowa State. The Cyclones come into this game extremely confident with wins in 5 straight games and averaging 35 points per game during this winning streak. It is no coincidence that this 5-game run has come with Brock Purdy at QB. The Iowa State quarterback has been red hot and I look for him to take advantage of a struggling UT defense today. The Longhorns are banged up in the secondary and, since their bye week on October 20th, the Horns have had to play 3 straight tough offenses. This wears a defense down as Texas has tried to stop Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Texas Tech the past 3 weeks. The Longhorns, though the beat the Red Raiders last week, certainly have struggled to get stops! Texas has allowed 38 points per game their last 3 games and over 500 yards of offense in 4 of their last 5 games including each of these last 3. The Horns are beat up and road-weary as this will be just their 3rd home game since blasting TCU nearly two months ago! Iowa State has lost both match-ups with Texas since Matt Campbell took over as head coach. This game today has "payback" written all over it as the Cyclones are surging! The Longhorns, though they won in this role last week, are still an ugly 2-11 ATS when they are off a game in which they scored more than 35 points and are now facing a team playing with revenge. Like I said, UT got the job done in that role last week but this is rare for them and, this week, Iowa State gets their revenge! The Cyclones are on a 13-3 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record under coach Campbell and they get the job done again here. 10* IOWA STATE |
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11-17-18 | Jazz +4 v. Celtics | 98-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Saturday 8* Utah Jazz (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - While it is true that this is a back to back spot for the Jazz and that the Celtics have revenge, it is arguably a tougher spot for Boston! That is because the Celtics are off a huge "marquee match-up" win over Toronto last night. Not only was that a huge game for Boston that is the type of W that can leave a team flat in their next game, particularly when playing a non-conference opponent, it also took a lot out of the Celtics physically and emotionally because it went to OT. As for the Jazz, they are off a loss at Philly last night, but they only made 4 of 22 three pointers while the Sixers drained 11 from beyond the arc. Of course that 21 point difference in long-range points had a lot to do with the final outcome and Utah comes out very hungry tonight after the late loss (led by 2 late in 4th) to the 76ers. The Jazz are 22-12 SU in Saturday games and improve to 3-0 (SU and ATS) this season when off a non-conference game. The Celtics are 1-4 ATS in non-conference games this season and Boston is also 0-3 ATS when playing on back to back days. 8* UTAH |
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11-17-18 | Furman v. Villanova -16 | 76-68 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #584 Saturday 8* Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Furman Paladins @ 5 ET - The Paladins are in the wrong place at the wrong time. We're getting some line value here because Furman is 4-0 on the season. Everyone can see that unblemished record and those same people also witnessed Villanova get crushed by Michigan on Wednesday. The result is that this line is being kept lower than it should be. The Wildcats are angry and will respond huge at home in what is their final home game until facing Temple on December 5th! That is a span of nearly 3 weeks so the Cats want o make this one count, particularly after what just happened against the Wolverines. Of course coach Jay Wright will have this Villanova team ready to go and they're going to take advantage of a Furman team that has a good record the past 3 seasons but that lost a ton of talent coming into this season. The Paladins lost a pair of 1,000 point scorers plus another pair of seniors. They still have enough talent to beat other teams in their conference and at a similar level to them. But the fact is Furman is stepping way up in class here and they're traveling to Villanova at absolutely the worst possible time. Look for the Paladins to drop to 0-4 SU and ATS versus Big East opponents. As for the Wildcats, they add to a 24-11 ATS run when facing teams that average 77 points or more per game. Also, the Cats are 19-9 ATS in games with a posted total in the 140s. 8* VILLANOVA |
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11-17-18 | Boston College v. Florida State +1.5 | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher Side - Rickenbach CFB Game #400 Saturday 8* Florida State Seminoles (+) vs Boston College Eagles @ 3:30 ET - When the lines first game out this one had to be a head-scratcher in most peoples books. Boston College is a ranked team and their loss to Clemson snapped a stretch that had seen the Eagles win 3 straight games SU and 4 in a row ATS. As for the Seminoles they've lost 3 straight games by a combined score of 148 to 51. That is an average losing margin of 32.3 points per game and yet this line opened up at nearly a pick'em! If there ever was a perfect play to fit into my contrarian system. This is it! Florida State is the type of team that is ultra-talented but yet has moments where they frustrate the hell out of their backers. The fact is that this line was set this way for a reason and I am grabbing the Noles as they catch the Eagles flat after that huge night game at home last week versus Clemson and with FSU having played better statistically than what the recent final scores would indicate. Long-term, in games with a line between +3 and -3, the Seminoles are on a 23-10 ATS run. Look for the Eagles to drop to 4-8 SU in their last dozen games played on grass. 8* FLORIDA STATE |
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11-17-18 | Utah v. Colorado +7.5 | 30-7 | Loss | -116 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #364 Saturday 8* Colorado Buffaloes (+) vs Utah Utes @ 1:30 ET - This is a tough spot for the Utes. Utah is off a big win versus Oregon and has another big home game with BYU on deck. The Buffaloes have a couple advantages here. Not only do they catch the Utes in a tricky scheduling spot, they are also at home and it is likely to be snowing during this game. Poor weather conditions generally tend to help the underdog and I like the fact we can get the Buffaloes at more than a TD in some spots as of early gameday morning. Colorado is 5-2 ATS in this series. Also, the Buffaloes are 5-1 ATS their last 6 when off an ATS loss by a double digit margin in their prior game. When the Utes are off a SU win which they also covered ATS, and are facing a team off B2B SU losses, Utah has gone 1-6 ATS. Combined edges of 16-4 / 80% ATS here are in favor of the Buffaloes and I believe Mother Nature favors the home team in this one too as a sizable home dog. Look for the Buffaloes to get the job done in their home finale. 8* COLORADO |
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11-16-18 | Jazz v. 76ers -3 | Top | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #706 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Utah Jazz @ 7:05 ET - Both teams are looking to bounce back but the Jazz are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Utah is off an unbelievable 118-68 loss at Dallas. Though they are hungry to get back on track after that, the Jazz now visit Philly where the 76ers are also in bounce back mode. Philadelphia just dropped Jimmy Butler's debut game at Orlando Wednesday despite having a double digit lead heading into the 4th quarter! Now Butler makes his home debut for the Sixers. Not only is Philly 7-0 SU at home this season, they're going to take advantage of a Jazz team that has struggled to score on the road in 3 straight games! In Utah's last 3 road games they are averaging just 84 points per game and they've been held to 37% shooting from the field. The 76ers are averaging 118 points per game at home this season! In other words, there is a significant home/road dichotomy factor in looking at these two teams. Though the Jazz will be looking to get back on track they are actually 12-20 ATS when off an upset loss as a favorite. Also, Philly is a long-term 40-22 ATS in non-conference games and the Sixers are a long-term 60-33 ATS in home games! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-16-18 | St. John's v. Rutgers +3 | Top | 84-65 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #730 Friday 10* Top Play Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+) vs St John's Red Storm @ 7 ET - The Red Storm are getting a lot of love from the betting markets early this morning and that doesn't come as a big surprise considering they've enjoyed long-term success against the Scarlet Knights and that includes games at Rutgers. Of course this little push by the markets has resulted in even more line value here with the home dog Scarlet Knights. The key here is that Rutgers has started the season really hot with their shooting and they get this game at home. St John's and the Scarlet Knights have played roughly equal teams so far in terms of strength of schedule so certainly one should not discount what Rutgers has done early this season. They are off to a red hot start with their shooting including from three point land. The Scarlet Knights also have a big edge in terms of size in this match-up. Rebounding deficits have been a recurring them for the Red Storm in recent seasons and that is likely to continue to be an issue in this match-up. Plus the aggressive Knights (added some talented scorers coming into this season) can attack the rim easier when there are not big guys down there. The size issue for St John's has been exasperated even more because they were counting on 6'9 250 Sedee Keita for key minutes in the rotation but he is now out with a knee injury. The Red Storm are 10-25 ATS in Friday games long-term and are 7-12 ATS in recent seasons when off a game where they scored 80 points or more. The Scarlet Knights are 6-1 ATS when off a game where they scored 80 points or more plus they are 10-2 ATS in non-conference games. I like the hot home team with the bigger bodies and with the extra line value. 10* RUTGERS |
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11-15-18 | Packers +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 32 h 13 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #307 Thursday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:20 ET - Seattle has home field edge here but, really, what else do they have? That is my point in looking at the Seahawks this season. Yes, they burned me last week as they stayed inside the big number at LA against the Rams. However, Seattle is still one of the worst teams in the league in terms of sack percentage allowed while Green Bay ranks roughly in the middle. Also, the Seahawks sack percentage on defense is strong but the Packers are even stronger. I will also take Aaron Rodgers over Russell Wilson any day of the week as my QB. I respect Wilson but the point is Seattle plays in a very weak NFC West because it only has the Rams as the Cardinals and 49ers struggles continue. Conversely, the Packers are annually dealing with the Vikings and now the Bears have risen up from the depths of mediocrity. Statistically, in terms of yardage allowed, these two defenses are very similar. Offense is where the edge goes to the Packers are they are averaging nearly 100 yards more through the air than the Seahawks are this season. I realize Seattle put up some big numbers last week on offense but they did take advantage of catching the Rams off that tough game with the Saints (LA still nearly covered anyway). The Seahawks last 3 wins have come against 3 teams that have a combined record of 6-18 SU on the season. I know the Packers haven't been world-beaters either but I like the fact they were absolutely "in the game" in their losses to the Rams and Patriots and their loss to Detroit was despite the Packers outgaining the Lions by 257 yards! I know they are NOT (and it is in black and white what matters most) but Green Bay could easily be 6-0 their last 6 games. With Rodgers at the helm they are always a threat and the Packers, ever since the lost to the Seahawks twice in 2014 (reg ssn and P/O) have dominated Seattle since. GB is 3-0 with the 3 victories over Seattle coming by a combined score of 82-36. The Packers are 6-3 ATS their last 9 played in weeks 10 through 13. This is their time of year for their annual playoff push! The last 26 times Seattle has been a favorite they have covered just 10 times! 10* GREEN BAY |
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11-14-18 | 76ers -5.5 v. Magic | Top | 106-111 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - Jimmy Butler's first game with the 76ers. The fact it is on the road is even better as it is keeping this line at a reasonable number. I look for Philly to win this game in blowout fashion. The Sixers now have a "Big 3" with Butler joining Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. This team is poised to be a force in the East to be reckoned with and Butler is likely to "go off" tonight and have a massive performance as he is thrilled to finally be out of Minnesota. The Magic should provide the perfect "punching bag" as Orlando. Entering Wednesday, the Magic are just 5-8 SU in their last 13 games. Orlando has just 3 ATS wins in its last 10 games. The Magic are 11-23 ATS when off a divisional game. Orlando is also a horrible 32-56 ATS in home games including 2-6 ATS this season. The 76ers are 25-13 ATS when off an upset win as an underdog and also 28-13 ATS in games with a posted total of 220 points or more. Offensively the Sixers are averaging nearly 10 points more per game than Orlando. Defensively Philly is allowing just 43% from the field while the Magic are allowing 46% from the field. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-14-18 | Buffalo +2.5 v. Ohio | Top | 17-52 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #303 Wednesday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bulls (+) @ Ohio University Bobcats @ 7 ET - This line has gone from a pick'em to Ohio becoming nearly a field goal favorite in this one. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the line move here and, as always, it is certainly not without reason! This Buffalo team is on a mission. Bulls head coach Lance Leipold is in his 4th year at Buffalo and the Bulls have yet to reach the post-season. Keep in mind this is the same Leipold who won FIVE Division III national championships at Wisconsin-Whitewater. That said, it is no surprise to me that Buffalo is having their best season yet under Leipold. That fact is that even if the Bulls lose this game they can still clinch the MAC East even if Ohio wins again next week. Buffalo could do that by virtue of defeating a bad Bowling Green team next week. However, the Bulls don't want to go that route. They want to clinch this right here right now on the Bobcats own field. Keep in mind Buffalo, under Leipold, has won both home match-ups with the Bobcats but they lost the lone meeting at Ohio University by 24 points in 2016. They must have been dominated, right? Actually the Bulls outgained Ohio in that game but were done in by turnovers. Buffalo atones for that road loss with a road win here. The Bulls are 6-0 ATS in MAC games this season and 4-0 ATS in road games on the year. They are also the healthier team entering this match-up. Buffalo also has an extra day of rest compared to Ohio heading into this one. The Bulls are 6-1 ATS when off a game against Kent State. Also, though some would argue these teams schedules are roughly equal this season in terms of strength, the numbers tell a different story. For the 2nd straight year the Bobcats schedule included just 2 teams that had a winning record last season. As for the Bulls, their schedule included 5 teams that had a winning record last season. I like having the points here as the Bulls "mission" under Leipold continues! 10* BUFFALO |
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11-14-18 | Michigan +7.5 v. Villanova | Top | 73-46 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #723 Wednesday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines (+) @ Villanova Wildcats @ 6:30 ET - This a rematch of last year's national championship game. The Wildcats defeated the Wolverines handily by 17 points. However, just how solid was that victory really? Certainly some credit is owed to the Villanova defense for it but the fact that Michigan only made 3 of 23 three pointers certainly had something to do with it too. The Wildcats outscored the Wolverines by 21 points from 3-point land as the Cats made 10 three points in the game! The point is that the game could have gone either way were it not for the disparity from beyond the arc. Now, this season, each of the teams are a little younger and less experienced but one could argue that Villanova lost more from their roster than did Michigan. I have plenty of respect for coach Jay Wright and his Wildcats but the Wolverines are led by a great coach of their own in John Beilein. Michigan, and Beilein, have had their sites set on this rematch. So much so in fact that they were down big at the half against Holy Cross in their most recent game. Of course the Wolverines responded and blew out the Crusaders in the second half but, the point is, this game has been circled in red ever since the schedules come out. Perhaps the Wolverines do fall short here but, if they do I expect the loss to be by only a bucket or two. Great value with the big dog here and Michigan is 12-6 ATS their last 18 as an underdog. I'll grab the generous points being offered. 10* MICHIGAN |
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11-13-18 | Hornets v. Cavs +7 | Top | 89-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Tuesday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - Of course the Cavs 1-11 SU record on the season makes them look very uninviting to the betting markets. The result is line value in a situation like this because they have been a different team since the coaching change. The Cavaliers last 3 losses have come by an average margin of defeat of only 4 points. Cleveland has been playing better on the defensive end and has allowed an average of just 99 points per game in their last 3 losses. The Hornets are in a tough scheduling spot as they are off a big win at Detroit and have a big revenge game with the 76ers on deck. Charlotte just recently lost to Philly by a single point and can't help but be anticipating the big match-up with newly acquired Jimmy Butler and the Sixers. The Hornets are also having to deal with a revenge-minded Cavs team here. Cleveland trailed Charlotte by just 7 points at the half in their meeting earlier this month but then got blown out by 32 by the time the final horn sounded. Time for some payback here and the Cavaliers improve to 3-0 ATS this season when playing with revenge. 10* CLEVELAND |
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11-13-18 | Western Michigan -7 v. Ball State | 41-42 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 50 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #301 Tuesday 8* Western Michigan Broncos (-) @ Ball State Cardinals @ 6 ET - Both teams have been struggling but the Broncos are still the superior team and will respond after getting blown out in back to back games. In fact, Western Michigan is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last 5 times they've entered a weekday game off B2B SU losses. The Broncos are also a fantastic 10-2 ATS as road favorites of more than 6 points when facing a team with a losing record! Ball State is an ugly 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Western Michigan. In fact the Broncos have blown out the Cardinals by a combined score of 161-30 in the last 3 meetings! I am well aware that EACH of these teams has issues at the QB position but at least Broncos QB Kaleb Eleby had a solid effort when he first replaced the injured Jon Wassink 2 games back. As for Ball State QB Drew Plitt, he has come in place of the injured Riley Neal but turnovers were a major issue in his first game. Another key factor here is that, with the QB situation for each team, the running game carries extra importance. The Broncos run defense had been solid for many consecutive weeks prior to the last two weeks. Though Western Michigan's run D struggled in its past two games they certainly didn't struggle as much as the Cardinals did. Ball State allowed an average of 307.5 rushing yards per game the past two games! Also, in terms of rushing yardage on offense, the Broncos have averaged 251 yards per game on the ground in their last 4 road contests! The Cards have gained more than 160 on the ground just once in their last seven games. Ball State is on a long-term 6-16 ATS run in conference games and with this line dropping to a 7 as of Tuesday evening, it is "go time" with the Broncos! 8* WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-12-18 | 76ers +2 v. Heat | 124-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
Zig Zag Best Bet - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Monday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - The "zig zag" theory in sports betting refers to the fact that the markets tend to quickly adjust based on one prior game. As for me, in typical contrarian fashion, when the markets follow the zig zag I like to take a look at the value it creates on the other side and that is what has me in play here. Last night I successfully used the Bucks off an OT loss the prior night. Good teams are hungry off losses folks and Milwaukee responded despite the tough scheduling situation that had most of the betting world backing Denver. This is a similar situation here. Though the Sixers at least did have a day off in between games, the fact is that they are off an OT loss. Also, they are without a few players involved in the big trade for Jimmy Butler. Of course Butler will not play tonight so it is a bit of a short roster for the 76ers tonight. However, they had that same short roster at Memphis Saturday and still nearly got the win before falling just short in overtime. The point is that, with the shorter bench and off an OT loss and with the Heat having playoff revenge, the market is going to pile on Miami here. I'll gladly grab the value on the other side knowing that Philly is the better team, had a day of rest, and is hungry off a loss. Keep in mind the 76ers are already 4-1 SU this season when off a loss. Also, the Sixers are a perfect 4-0 SU against Southeast Division opponents this season. Miami is 1-5 SU and ATS in games with a posted total of 220 points or more this season. Another high-scoring game goes against the Heat here! 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-12-18 | Troy State +6 v. Pittsburgh | 75-84 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #725 Monday 8* Troy Trojans (+) @ Pittsburgh Panthers @ 7 ET - The Trojans are off a loss Saturday but it was a very tight loss and it was at St Louis. Keep in mind the Billikens are projected to be the top team in the Atlantic Ten this season. So Troy enters this game just 1-1 while Pittsburgh is 2-0 but the Panthers have played a weak schedule and are projected to be near the very bottom of the ACC once again this season! Still this is a match-up that many will look at say, give the "big school" team at home against a "small school" and sure enough that is what is happening as the line has climbed from 4.5 to a 6 early this morning. The fact is that Troy has a trio of senior starters as well as an infusion of young talent and they will make for a very tough match-up for a Panthers team that is still in a bit of disarray from the firing of their coach in March. Don't get me wrong, Pittsburgh's new coach is a great coach but they also lost some key players through this coaching transition and there will be an adjustment phase. This hasn't shown up yet because the Panthers have played weak teams but Troy, especially with their veteran leadership, is going to present a much greater challenge. The Trojans are 4-2 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. The Panthers are 4-7 ATS (and 2-9 SU!) in games with a posted total in the 130 to 139.5 range. In other words, upset alert! I'll grab the points for the extra insurance though certainly an outright upset would not surprise. 8* TROY |
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11-11-18 | Vanderbilt +3 v. USC | 82-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #531 Sunday 8* Vanderbilt Commodores (+) @ USC Trojans @ 9 ET - The Commodores have revenge from a home loss to the Trojans last season USC is still without a lot of talent as they suffered key losses as a result of the federal investigation into college hoops where their program was one of the first ones named. Additionally, due to injury, their #1 player coming into this season (Bennie Boatwright) is currently out. Both Southern Cal and Vanderbilt opened their college hoops campaign with wins but the Commodores definitely faced the tougher opponent. I also love the huge influx of talent that Vandy head coach Bryce Drew brought in for this season. Yes they had seniors last year but the program actually regressed. It was the younger team the season before that was so successful for Vanderbilt in Drew's first year with the program which was the 2016-17 season. In other words, with this influx of talent hand-picked by Drew heading into this season, don't be surprised if the Commodores make significant strides this season. This is a match-up they can take advantage of as they face the Trojans without Boatwright. Of course most bettors will look at USC at home and laying a small number on the west coast facing a team from back east and it looks like "the play" to them. However, per all of the above, you can see why the short road dog should get the cash here. Don't be fooled by the line and, of course, that is what my contrarian crusher picks are all about. 8* VANDERBILT |
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11-11-18 | Bucks +3.5 v. Nuggets | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Zig Zag Best Bet - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Sunday 8* Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Denver Nuggets @ 8:05 ET - The "zig zag" theory in sports betting refers to the fact that the markets tend to quickly adjust based on one prior game. As for me, in typical contrarian fashion, when the markets follow the zig zag I like to take a look at the value it creates on the other side and that is what has me in play here. With the Bucks off an OT loss at LA against the Clippers last night and now playing at Denver tonight, it has created a mass run of betting on the Nuggets. I look at this game differently. Milwaukee has been one of the best teams in the NBA early this season. The Bucks have yet to lose back to back games this season. Prior to losing to the Clippers they beat the World Champion Warriors AT Golden State! Don't you think that might have had something to do with last night's loss ladies and gentleman? The point is that the markets thing the Nuggets are one of the easiest plays of the season thus far when the fact is the Bucks (swept by the Nuggets each of the past two seasons) are likely to win outright in my opinion. Milwaukee is very hungry here, they are 1-2 on this road trip and want to even it up before going home, and the Bucks have two days off after this game. The point is that Milwaukee can definitely "leave it all on the floor" tonight at Denver and I feel that is precisely what they will do and that the result will be a win. Keep in mind the Nuggets have not shot as well as Bucks this season and that includes from the 3-point line which is so important in "today's game" in terms of the 3-ball being a key factor. In terms of defense, the Bucks are holding opponents to a lower shooting percentage than the Nuggets are. Also, Denver is just plain cold right now. They've lost two straight games and shot a combined 42.6% from the field! They must have played the Celtics and Warriors, right? NO, Denver played the Brooklyn Nets and Memphis Grizzlies! The point is that the Nuggets are getting way too much respect here and I am happy to grab the extra value here with the line move giving us even more with a hungry Bucks team tonight that I do not see being denied! 8* MILWAUKEE |
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11-11-18 | Seahawks v. Rams -9 | Top | 31-36 | Loss | -114 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Game #272 Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (-) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 4:25 ET - Surprisingly the early indication on this one, prior to gameday, is that the Seahawks are the popular choice. Of course it makes sense as many remember that Seattle lost by just two points in the prior meeting this season plus many are feeling the Rams will suffer "unbeaten letdown" after their undefeated start to the season ended last week in New Orleans. Ladies and gentlemen, that game against the Saints was a hard-fought battle and Los Angeles has nothing to hang their heads about in regards to that defeat. In other words, look for the Rams to come out blazing hot here looking to atone for that defeat and there is no way the Seahawks can match them score for score. That is why I am very willing to lay a sizable number here as this game has rout written all over it. Some are even mentioning that the Rams have the trip to Mexico City on deck against the Chiefs, one of the AFC's best. The fact is that a non-conference match-up, no matter where it is played, does not take precedence over a divisional match-up! Also, this is especially true this time around because the Seahawks beat the Rams in their last visit to LA! The Seahawks are on a 3-8 ATS run in games played on grass. The Rams are 7-0 SU and 4-2-1 ATS in games played on grass this season. Los Angeles has the much stronger passing attack in this match-up and, off a loss, they won't take their foot off the gas in this match-up. The Seahawks are averaging just 23 points per game this season. The Rams have scored at least 33 points in 7 of their 9 games. I like my odds for a double digit cover in this one! 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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11-11-18 | Patriots v. Titans +7 | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #260 Sunday 8* Tennessee Titans (+) vs New England Patriots @ 1 ET - This is a contrarian play because the betting markets have a short-term memory. In their minds the best bet here is to fade the Titans with the almighty Patriots because, well, New England tends to be a covering machine PLUS the key factor that Tennessee is on a short week. However, that Monday Night win over the Cowboys gives a huge confidence boost for the Titans heading into this match-up with the Patriots. I love the fact that Tennessee also gets this game at home, the Pats Rob Gronkowski may not play, and the Titans have playoff revenge from that ugly loss at Foxboro in January. While it is true that New England has the better offense in this match-up, it is also true that Tennessee has the better defense. I like the physical style that the Titans play and feel that, especially at home with playoff loss revenge, they are going to give the Patriots a lot of trouble in this game. Tom Brady and New England is off that big showdown win versus Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay. Also, the Titans are on a 5-1 ATS run as a dog and this is their only home game in the month of November! In fact, it is Tennessee's only home game between mid-October and early December so, with playoff revenge also factored in, you know this one has been circled in red on the Titans calendars! The Titans are also 8-4 ATS their last 12 games against teams with a winning record and again, are being undervalued here in my opinion. Grab the hungry home dog! 8* TENNESSEE |
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11-11-18 | Lions +7 v. Bears | 22-34 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 13 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Game #265 Sunday 8* Detroit Lions (+) @ Chicago Bears @ 1 ET - The Bears thoroughly obliterated the Bills last week, right? After all the final score was Chicago 41, Buffalo 9. Well, ladies and gentlemen, the fact is that the Bears were actually outgained in that game! Chicago only had 180 yards of total offense and yet they had 41 points. It was a turnover-fueled win for the Bears and you can see where I am going with this. It absolutely has led to significant line value this week for a Lions team that is coming off a deceiving final score of their own and will absolutely be ready for this divisional match-up. Detroit did lose at Minnesota last week by a margin of 15 points but they were only outgained by 74 yards. Also, the Lions have been ready for their biggest games. Again, the Vikings loss was a bit of a faulty final score and in their only other divisional game so far this season they beat Green Bay by 8. The other big game for Detroit this season was when they faced head coach Matt Patricia's prior team, the Patriots, and indeed the Lions got the upset win in that game. The point is that this divisional game at Chicago is certainly one that falls into the "important" category for Patricia and Company. That means you can expect a huge effort here and the Bears are simply over-valued. None of the 5 teams that Chicago has beaten this season has a winning record an the combined record of those teams is 14-28 for a .333 winning percentage. To see them as a TD favorite here shows just how skewed public perception can get. By the way, the Lions are on a 6-2 SU and ATS run in November games and the Bears are on a 6-15 ATS (and 4-17 SU!) run in all games with a posted total between 42.5 and 49 points. 8* DETROIT |
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11-10-18 | Clemson v. Boston College +20 | Top | 27-7 | Push | 0 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #122 Saturday 10* Top Play Boston College Eagles (+) vs Clemson Tigers @ 8 ET - I have a ton of respect for Clemson. The Tigers are a tremendous football team. However, they have enjoyed a string of blowout wins now that has resulted in an inflated line in a situation that truly is likely to be one of their toughest games, from a situational standpoint, of this season. A night game in mid-November at Boston College means temperatures likely starting out in the upper 30s and possibly falling to near freezing as well as some extra wind chill with some pretty stiff winds blowing through Chestnut Hill as well. The point is that this is certainly not typical weather for Clemson to deal with. Now certainly this doesn't stop Clemson dead in their tracks. They're very talented, very fast, and very skilled. The point is that the Tigers will score some points. But for them to go to Boston College and blast the Eagles by a 3 touchdown margin is something I don't see happening. The Eagles have a solid defense that has also shown a lot of "bend but don't break" this season. BC is allowing just 20.8 points per game their last 4 games. Also, the Eagles are solid in the trenches on both sides of the ball. This includes an offensive line that returned all 5 starters from last season and is loaded with experience. The Eagles have averaged over 500 yards of offense per game at home this season. Granted the Clemson defense is tough so there will be many challenges in this game for the BC offense but they have the veterans and the physicality to get some push against this tough Tigers defense. Boston College is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record and that includes 3-0 ATS this season. Long-term the Eagles are 3-1 ATS as a home dog in a range of 17.5 to 21 points. They lost all 4 of those games SU but the point is they covered all but 1 and I love the value here on a cold night at Chestnut Hill with a very physical team capable of winning battles in the trenches. Grab the big points! 10* BOSTON COLLEGE |
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11-10-18 | Ball State +13.5 v. Purdue | 75-84 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #725 Saturday 8* Ball State Cardinals (+) @ Purdue Boilermakers @ 8 ET - The Boilermakers rolled to an easy win in their first game of the season but they played a MAAC team, Fairfield, that lost their top scorers from last season. Purdue is going to face a much tougher challenge Saturday as they host a Ball State team that is very deep, very talented, and likely to end up as one of the top teams in the MAC this season. The Cardinals are ready to carry momentum over from a strong 2nd half performance in their win over Indiana State to open up the season. They will take advantage of a Purdue team that lost 4 senior starters that combined for 154 starts last season! Of course the Boilermakers still have Carsen Edwards and they have plenty of talent that, last season, was sitting behind all those senior starters. However, there will likely be some growing pains early this season against quality competition and Ball State is certainly going to prove to be a major step up in talent level compared to the Fairfield team that the Boilermakers demolished. I am grabbing the big points here as I expect this one to be decided by single digits! The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Also, the Cards are on a 14-8 ATS run as an underdog. 8* BALL STATE |
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11-10-18 | Oregon +4 v. Utah | 25-32 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 52 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #161 Saturday 8* Oregon Ducks (+) @ Utah Utes @ 5:30 ET - This is a contrarian play because certainly, on the surface, it would appear that Utah is a great play in this spot. After all, the Utes are at home, they're playing with revenge, and they're laying a small number of points. Upon closer inspection though you'll see why I am going contrarian here. Even thought the Utes are off a loss and the Ducks are off a win (another reason that would normally support backing Utah) the value is with the road dog in this match-up. The Utes are going to be without RB Zack Moss for this game and QB Tyler Huntley has been lost for the season. The RB issue is significant but the QB issue is very concerning as the Utes have inexperience at that position behind Huntley. In terms of technical data, Utah is a long-term 33-49 ATS in games where they are favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Also, the Ducks have won 8 of the last 11 meetings between these teams and that includes 3 of the last 4 at Utah. With the Utes having redshirt freshman Kelley at QB and the visitor having covered 4 of the last 5 in this series, I like having the points with a Ducks team poised for another road win at Utah. 8* OREGON |
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11-10-18 | Mississippi State +24.5 v. Alabama | 0-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Game #181 Saturday 8* Mississippi State Bulldogs (+) @ Alabama Crimson Tide @ 3:30 ET - Alabama, of course, is the best team in CFB and they dominated LSU more than anyone really expected. However, that huge win last week over the Tigers does leave the Crimson Tide in, arguably, their biggest flat spot of the season. Last week's game was "The Game" where, if Bama was going to get upset this season, that was going to be it. With that being said, and the fact that it did not happen and the Tide rolled, I see this week's game being much more challenging than many expect. Alabama is breathing a sigh of relief for winning at LSU last week but this Bulldogs defense is not going to be fun to deal with. Mississippi State has played a strength of schedule very comparable to that of Alabama's and the Bulldogs numbers on defense are very bit as good of those of the Tide. Now, for certain, the key edge that Alabama does have here is their passing game. However, the Bulldogs pass defense has allowed just 177 passing yards per game this season in SEC action. I am, of course, NOT saying that Mississippi State is going to shutdown the powerful Alabama offense. But the fact is I do feel strongly that is going to be tough for the Crimson Tide to build a huge margin in this game and will gladly take advantage of the big number posted on this game. The Bulldogs are 7-1 ATS their last 8 as a double digit dog. Alabama is on a 4-7 ATS run in home games. I'll grab the big points. 8* MISSISSIPPI STATE |
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11-09-18 | Louisville +21 v. Syracuse | 23-54 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #111 Friday 8* Louisville Cardinals (+) @ Syracuse Orange @ 7 ET - This is the point in the season where a game like this means PLENTY to a team that is 2-7 on the season. If this game was on a Saturday afternoon it would not mean so much but Louisville knows they are THE GAME in early action Friday and the college football world will be tuned in for this one as it involves a ranked Syracuse team. Of course the Cardinals have no shot at bowl eligibility and so a game like this is a rare opportunity to do something positive late in the season. We all saw what happened last night with Wake Forest upsetting the Wolfpack at NC State and that line was nearly identical to this line. Now, of course, the Demon Deacons needed a win to help in their quest for bowl eligibility but, seriously, how many people really expected Wake Forest to win outright as a nearly 20 point dog? The point being that late season games like this (especially on a weeknight) can be dangerous for large favorites. I expect that to be the case again here. While I don't expect Louisville to get a massive upset, I do fully expect them to stay inside this massive number. We're simply getting some extra line value here because everyone saw the Cards get destroyed by Clemson Saturday but the Tigers, of course, are one of the top teams in the nation. Syracuse, for as strong as their offense certainly is, definitely has a sub-par defense. The Orange are allowing nearly as many yards per game as the Cardinals are per game this season! Louisville, in a rare big dog role, is a long-term 3-0 ATS as a road dog of 17.5 to 21 points. Syracuse is 1-6 ATS their last 7 games against teams with a losing record and that includes 0-3 ATS this season! Overall, the Orange have been outgained over their last 5 games and they were outgained in last week's 17 point win over Wake Forest. In other words, it was a bit of a "phony final" and is also helping to give us line value here. Additionally, Syracuse was only 2-2 SU in their 4 prior games and the two wins came by a TOTAL of just 13 points. The point is that the Orange are being severely over-valued here and I am happy to grab the big dog value with a team looking to atone for last week's horrible performance where they were embarrassed by one of the best teams in the country. 8* LOUISVILLE |
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11-09-18 | Indiana State v. Green Bay | Top | 78-74 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #517 Friday 10* Top Play Indiana State Sycamores (pick'em) @ Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix @ 4:30 ET - UWGB is attracting some betting attention here because they are off a blowout win in their season opener while the Sycamores are off a blowout loss in their season opener. However, there is much more than meets the eye at first glance in terms of this match-up. First off, the Phoenix took advantage of playing a Division III school as they crushed Wisconsin-Lutheran to open up the season. Secondly, Indiana State played a Ball State team that is expected to be on of the top teams in the MAC. The Sycamores, even though they were on the road for that game too, were tied at the half with the Cardinals and also were down by just 7 at about the mid-way point of the 2nd half. After a disappointing effort on defense in the 2nd half of that game, the Sycamores are hell-bent on rectifying the situation here. Also, Indiana State was at a size disadvantage at Ball State but now it is the Sycamores whom will have the size edge in this match-up with UWGB. Also, this is game is an early start Friday due to a conflict with the Volleyball schedule for the Phoenix and so the game goes at 3:30 ET. A day game on campus isn't going to help the atmosphere here for UWGB either. With the Sycamores not playing again until the 14th, they are highly motivated to atone for their poor 2nd half performance at Ball State. The Phoenix are 2-6 ATS in Friday games and I look for the Sycamores to improve to 3-0 ATS in games with a posted total in the 150s in recent seasons. 10* INDIANA STATE |
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11-08-18 | Panthers v. Steelers -3.5 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 26 h 31 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #108 Thursday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Carolina Panthers @ 8:20 ET - Everyone is looking to fade the Steelers here because they're off the big game against the Ravens. However, when they faced Baltimore earlier this season they then blasted an NFC South foe in their very next games as Pittsburgh crushed the Falcons 41-17. In fact it was that very game that began the current run for the Steelers and they've never looked back. Very quietly this team has made tremendous progress on defense but many are not taking notice. Pittsburgh has allowed just 18 points per game their last 4 games and the yardage allowed is even more impressive. The Steelers have given up only 276 yards per game in their last 4 games, all wins! Those who like historical data will like the fact that Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games versus the Panthers. Overall, the Steelers have excelled against the NFC with a 10-5 ATS in their last 15. Carolina is 2-7 ATS long-term in Thursday games including 0-3 ATS in recent seasons. The Panthers road games this season saw them lose at Atlanta and at Washington. The only road win they had was at Philly and, though they certainly deserve some credit for the comeback, the Eagles certainly "helped" Carolina rally late from a 17-0 deficit. The point is that the markets are giving a little too much credit to the Panthers right now in my opinion and not enough to a Steelers team that is really starting to put it together on defense plus has the home field edge here. The Panthers are off 3 straight wins but they aren't known for rattling off long winning streaks. Prior to last week's win and cover Carolina was 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS when entering a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. The Steelers have the better passing attack offensively and, in terms of pass defense, the Panthers have allowed an average of 285 passing yards in 6 of their 7 last games (they had one exceptional game against the Redskins in this stretch). The Steelers have allowed just 192 passing yards per game their last 3 games. I respect the Panthers but this is the only home game for Pittsburgh between late October and early December and they're ready to make the most of it. 10* PITTSBURGH |
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11-08-18 | Rockets -3 v. Thunder | 80-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Thursday 8* Houston Rockets (-) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - The Thunder are in the 2nd game of a back to back plus travel was involved as they were in Cleveland last night. The Rockets have a much better scheduling situation as they have been off for two days entering this game. Another issue for the Thunder is that Russell Westbrook is dealing with an ankle sprain. He missed last night's game and, without a practice day in between game days, it is quite likely he misses again tonight. Even if he would happen to play, I still like the Rockets here. Both teams are playing better for certain and they enter this game on hot streaks. However, prior to last night's game Oklahoma City had allowed 111 points per game this season. The Rockets, on the other hand, have been playing solid defense in recent games. Houston has allowed just 91 points per game their last two games and they held each of those opponents to a combined 42% from the field. The road team is 9-3 ATS in the last dozen meetings between these teams so home court has certainly proven not to be a big edge in their match-ups. Keep in mind the Rockets have been getting healthier (James Harden) while the Thunder are going the other direction (Westbrook). Houston is 22-9 ATS in November games. The Rockets also are 12-2 SU when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games on the road. Considering this as well as the rest edge and Westbrook's questionable status, I am happy to lay the small number on the road in this one. 8* HOUSTON |
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11-07-18 | 76ers +2.5 v. Pacers | Top | 100-94 | Win | 102 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #513 Wednesday 10* Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers are off an embarrassing loss at Brooklyn where Philly turned the ball over 27 times compared to just 9 for the Nets! Philadelphia has had two days off since then and can't wait to get back on the floor and atone for that performance. As for the Pacers, though they've been winning more regularly than the Sixers have of late, they are having shooting issues. Indiana has struggled at the free throw line this season and they've also made just 42% of their shots from the field in their last 3 home games! The Pacers are 0-3-1 ATS this season when off a home game. Also, Indiana is an ugly 1-4 ATS in games against teams that average 106 points or more per game. The 76ers are a long-term 49-26 ATS in games against teams that average 106 points or more per game. Also, Philadelphia is 3-1 SU when off a loss this season. The public and betting markets are likely to back the Pacers here since the Sixers still have not won a road game this season. I am fading the masses, as per usual, because Philly got demolished by the Nets in their most recent game. As a result, they are incredibly focused for this game and the finally get a road win on the board. Now, though I do expect an outright upset, I am grabbing the available points here as the Pacers are only 3-2 SU in their last 5 games and 2 of those SU wins came by 2 points or less. In other words, getting 2.5 points or more here could prove to be very valuable. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-07-18 | Ohio v. Miami-OH +3.5 | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #103 Wednesday 8* Miami-Ohio Redhawks (+) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ 7 ET - The Bobcats, at least in early wagering through Tuesday evening, are the popular choice. Of course this makes sense as Ohio University has rolled 3 straight teams heading into this game and also the Bobcats have had the upper hand in this series going 11-2 in the last 13 meetings. However, in the Redhawks are a very dangerous home underdog here. This is a rivalry game and means a lot to Miami-Ohio even though they have a sub-par record on the season. The Redhawks want this game badly and Ohio U is truly in a classic lookahead spot here as the Bobcats have a huge game on deck against Buffalo. The Bulls entered Tuesday night's game versus Kent with a 5-0 record and, of course, it is hard for the Bobcats not to get caught looking ahead. For the Redhawks their full focus is certainly here and I also like the fact that Miami-Ohio has played the tougher schedule this season in terms of comparing these two teams. While it is true that Ohio U has held their last 3 opponents each to just 14 points, the Redhawks have averaged 37 points per game their last 6 games and have not been held below 30 in any of those games. The Redhawks are 4-0 ATS this season when coming off a conference game and 12-6 ATS the last 2+ seasons as an underdog. Miami-Ohio is 15-5 ATS in home games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points. The Redhawks also have the rest edge here as they played last week on Tuesday while the Bobcats played on Thursday. I expect an upset but will grab the "insurance" with the FG + the hook in this one. 8* MIAMI-OHIO |
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11-07-18 | Ohio State v. Cincinnati -5.5 | 64-56 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #522 Wednesday 8* Cincinnati Bearcats (-) vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 6 ET - Huge game for many reasons. For one thing, it brings back the Cincinnati / Ohio State match-up many in Ohio had been calling for (they will meet next year in Columbus). Secondly, the Bearcats had to play their home games last season on the campus of Northern Kentucky as they were waiting for the renovations ($87 million!) to be completed at Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati. You know the Bearcats are excited about this opportunity being back in their true home and hosting Ohio State. Last, but certainly not least, coach Mick Cronin and his Bearcats have been waiting nearly 8 months for a chance to redeem themselves after what happened back on March 18th. That was the infamous game against Nevada in the NCAA Tourney that saw a Cincinnati team that was one of the best in the nation defensively, blow a 22-point lead with 11 minutes to go in the game! One thing impacting Ohio State here is that big man Micah Potter just announced he was transferring. Granted he only averaged 10 minutes per game last season but, as a junior now, he was expected to have a bigger role this season and the Buckeyes lost a lot of key players from last year's team prior to now losing frontcourt depth with Potter's announcement. The Bearcats are 23-2 SU in their last 25 home games and this a very manageable line especially when you consider that Ohio State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 road games. Look for the strong D and the home court edge to be the difference makers for the Bearcats here as they take advantage of a Buckeyes team that will be adjusting to life without Keita Bates-Diop and Jae'Sean Tate as well as guards Kam Williams and Andrew Dakich. Sure the Bearcats lost some players too but they are in far better shape than the Buckeyes here in the early going. 8* CINCINNATI |
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11-06-18 | Kent State +22.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 14-48 | Loss | -109 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #101 Tuesday 10* Top Play Kent State Golden Flashes (+) @ Buffalo Bulls @ 7:30 ET - When you are a huge underdog, you welcome all the help that you can get from Mother Nature. In this case, this game at Buffalo is offering plenty of help based on the weather forecast. The Bulls, as you would expect for a MAC team, play in a rather small home venue. That means that when the winds are whipping through there it can create havoc for the passing and kicking game. Winds are expected to be in the 25 to 35 mph range on Tuesday night in Amherst in the Buffalo area. I love the big dog in a spot like this catching more than 3 TDs. The Golden Flashes have been playing a little better in recent weeks. One of their biggest weaknesses on the season is pass defense but, again, based on the strong winds forecast for Tuesday night, Buffalo is likely to keep the ball on the ground a lot. In comparing these two teams, they are nearly equal in terms of the ground game both on offense and defense. The big edge the Bulls would have is the passing game but, again, that is going to be at least somewhat (if not significantly) impacted by the weather in this one. The Golden Flashes have played better in recent weeks even though they've had a road-heavy schedule (they finish the season with two home games). Kent State is only 1-3 SU their last 4 games but two of those three losses came by just a single point. Another key here is that Buffalo is in a sandwich spot. The two teams closest to the Bulls in the MAC East standings are Miami-Ohio and Ohio U. With Buffalo off a key win over the Redhawks last Tuesday and having a huge game on deck with the Bobcats next Wednesday, this is a "tricky" scheduling spot for the Bulls. The Golden Flashes are playing hard for head coach Sean Lewis. At the age of 31 he is the youngest head coach in the nation and has brought a lot of positive energy to the program and they are heading in the right direction despite their unimpressive W-L record. Another key to the value here is that Bulls linebacker (2nd in the NATION in tackles last season) Khalil Hodge is out for the 1st half of this game due to a targeting suspension. Look for the Golden Flashes to keep this game much closer than many are expecting. 10* KENT STATE |
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11-06-18 | Hawks +11.5 v. Hornets | 102-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Tuesday 8* Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The Hawks are off a big win and ready to build some momentum. Atlanta is 3-0 ATS (and 3-0 SU!) this season when off a game where they scored 115 points or more. The Hornets are also off a big win but have only won back to back games once this season. That said, we're getting great line value here in being able to challenge the Hornets to win this game by a dozen points or more. I just don't see that happening here. Charlotte is a long-term 4-8 ATS in home games with posted total of 220 points or more. Much has been made of the Hornets improved offense this season but truly they have been a bit of sporadic. Prior to their blowout win over the Cavaliers, the Hornets had been held to 44% or less from the field in 5 of their last 7 games including being held to 41% or less in 2 of their last 3 games! The Hawks actually are the much hotter team with shooting right now as they've knocked down 51.4% of their shots from the field in their last 3 games. Of course Atlanta is one of the weaker teams in the league but lets not forget that Charlotte has won just 36 games each of the past two seasons. The Hornets certainly are not juggernauts and they're priced too high in this one. Give me the big points with the Hawks! 8* ATLANTA |
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11-06-18 | Rider v. UCF -7 | 70-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #758 Tuesday 8* UCF Knights (-) vs Rider Broncs @ 6:30 ET - The Broncs are projected to be the #1 team in the MAAC this season and are getting a lot of respect from the betting markets here as a result. However, there contrarian viewpoint to this game that is getting overlooked by many is that the Knights are projected to be the #1 team in the AAC this season. Not only is UCF at home and coming from the stronger conference - American Athletic Conference over Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference - the fact is that the Knights are much healthier entering this season than they were last season. UCF managed to win 19 games last season despite enduring many injury setbacks. They enter this season with Tacko Fall and BJ Taylor both ready to be on the court at the same time (only played together in ONE game last season) and also Aubrey Dawkins (coach Johnny Dawkins son) is ready to go this season too! He transferred from Michigan to follow his father down to Central Florida so he had to sit out the first two season two years ago and then he missed last season due to a shoulder injury. Now he is ready to go as is the rest of a solid core group of Knights player. Additionally, UCF is even stronger due to some other additions (including through transfer) to an already solid basketball program. Sure Rider has impressive numbers on offense but their defense won't be able to match that of the Knights and this season's UCF team is loaded now that they are healthy. Plus, keep in mind, the Knights had added benefit of other guys getting valuable playing time last season due to the injuries. 8* UCF |
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11-05-18 | Titans +5.5 v. Cowboys | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 16 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #473 Monday 8* Tennessee Titans (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - Though it may seem tough to back a team off 3 straight losses, going contrarian is absolutely the way to go here. Indeed, the Titans have lost 3 straight games but 2 of the 3 losses came by 1 point. That said, there is some solid line value here with grabbing the points. Tennessee is 5-1 ATS the last 6 times they've been a dog. Also, the Titans are on a long-term 6-0 ATS run in Monday night football games. When Tennessee enters a game on a SU losing streak of 2 or more games, the Titans have gone 5-0 ATS! The Cowboys have covered just 1 game in their last 5 contests. Also, 1 of their 3 SU wins this season came by just 2 points. Again, the key point being here that there is value with having the points in this one. Both teams are very hungry as they each are coming off a bye week that followed a losing effort in their most recent game. All that untapped energy now has been building for extra time and I look for a tight, physical contest. That is precisely the type of game where, more often than not, having those points on your side proves to be key! Note that the Titans are a perfect 7-0 ATS the last 7 times they've entered a game as a dog of more than 3 points against an NFC foe that has a losing record! Also, under Jason Garrett, the Cowboys are 4-9 ATS when off a loss to a division rival in their prior game. Not only is Dallas off a loss to the Redskins, they have a big game at Philly on deck Sunday night. Grab the points. 8* TENNESSEE |
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11-04-18 | Packers +6 v. Patriots | 17-31 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 15 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Game #471 Sunday 8* Green Bay Packers (+) @ New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - While it is true the Packers are going all the way from a game on the West Coast to one on the East Coast, it is also true that the Patriots are coming off a Monday night game. The point is that the short rest for New England really negates any edge they would have had based on the Green Bay situation. Also, not to get too technical but, the fact is that with this being a night game, going from the West Coast to the East Coast loses some of its problem factor. As for the match-up here, I love the fact that the Patriots had a very fortunate cover last week at Buffalo. The Pats won the game by 19 points but outgained the Bills by only 54 yards. Now instead of facing a Bills team with a very tenuous back-up QB situation, the Patriots face one of the game's best in Aaron Rodgers. Also, you know that Rodgers (and the entire Packers team) is going to be extremely hungry here. Not only did they lose late at LA last week, they also suffered a fumble on the final kick-off from the Rams. It was a horrible gaffe and part of what cost that kick returner his spot on the team as he was released after that! The fact of the matter is that the Packers had plenty of time to try and get into field goal range...especially with Rodgers at the helm. As a result, there is simply no discounting the hunger that this Green Bay team has coming into this game. The Packers want this game and it is with good reason that the odds makers opened this one up with NE as less than a TD favorite. Overall the Packers pass defense ranks much better than the Patriots does. As for the offense, Green Bay holds the overall edge there as well on the season. You can see why I like getting a hungry dog like the Packers when they've got numbers like this to support them as well! There is also an interesting ATS stat here that fits perfectly. The Packers, under head coach Mike McCarthy, with last week's cover at the Rams improved to 10-1 ATS when they face an opponent that is off back to back away games. LA was off of 3 straight road games last week and note that the Pats are off B2B road games heading into this one. Grab the generous points here as an outright upset certainly would not surprise but I love the insurance of the points in this one! 8* GREEN BAY |