Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-29-21 | Iowa v. Virginia OVER 130.5 | Top | 75-74 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
CBB Early Dominator - 10* Top Play OVER 130.5 in Virginia Cavaliers vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ 7 ET - Virginia, year in and year out, is one of the best defensive teams in College Basketball. Trust me, the odds makers are well aware of this too. Yet we saw this line in the mid-130s as an opener and now it is down to the 130 range as of mid-morning Monday. I will grab the value on the other side of this move. Iowa is smart enough to know they have no chance if they let this game turn into a half-court defensive-minded struggle. I feel strongly that the Hawkeyes - averaging 97 points per game this season but against weak competition - are going to force the pace here. Iowa is going to look to get quick outside shots and/or quick points in transition and this is a team that has knocked down nearly 40% of its three pointers this season. Virginia is allowing 32% from three point land at home this season and not only is that not exactly spectacular, it also was against much weaker teams with lesser shooters than this Hawkeyes team has. At the same time, this will be the toughest team, by far, that Iowa has faced this season and the Cavs are going to score quite well here. The Cavaliers had an ugly game versus Houston not too long ago but that was the only rough performance in a 6-game stretch that saw them average 65 points per game in the 5 wins. So consider that average and the fact Iowa is going to force some tempo in this game. This should get into the 140s in my opinion. 10* OVER 130.5 in Virginia |
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11-28-21 | Villanova v. La Salle OVER 139 | Top | 72-46 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
CBB Philly Special - 10* Top Play OVER 139 in La Salle Explorers vs Villanova Wildcats @ 6 ET - The Wildcats ready to make amends for what happened against Purdue. The over is 4-1 in Villanova's games this season and their defense has not been what we are use to seeing from a typical Wildcats team. However, the Cats offense is phenomenal and averaging 82.6 points so far this season and will have no trouble against an over-matched Explorers team here. La Salle also can score well though and I feel the Wildcats will force a fast tempo here as they can't wait to "let loose" for a big win after what happened against he Boilermakers. That means we have a lot of line value here with this rather low total because I just don't see La Salle as being able to slow down Villanova. But also, the Wildcats will get such a huge lead in this game that there is no reason for intense focus on defense and the Explorers, as an example, had only 28 points in the first half of the last meeting between these teams but then scored 44 in the 2nd half and that game totaled 155 points. I feel we have good value with this low total as Nova will be pushing to score a ton of points here. 10* OVER 139 in La Salle |
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11-27-21 | Delaware v. Temple OVER 139 | Top | 74-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
CBB Philly Special - 10* Top Play OVER 139 in Temple Owls vs Delaware Fightin Blue Hens @ 7 ET - The Owls are happy to be at home in Philly and will score plenty here. Temple has scored more than 70 in each of their two home games this season and one of those was against USC. Delaware has been very weak on defense early this season and certainly will not put up much resistance. The over is a perfect 6-0 in Fightin' Blue Hens games this season. Delaware has been shooting the ball very well early this season but can stop no one. The Owls are off a dominating win over an over-matched Elon team but Delaware will be much more of a test, hence the low line on this game in terms of the small spread. Prior to the win over Elon, Temple allowed 78 points per game over 3 prior games. With this total also moving down from low 140s to upper 130s, we have even more value to work with in this one. I'll take it. 10* OVER 139 in Temple |
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11-26-21 | St. Joe's v. Georgetown OVER 145 | Top | 77-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Total of the Week - CBB 10* Top Play OVER 145 in Georgetown Hoyas vs St Joseph's Hawks @ 9 ET in Anaheim, CA - Yesterday both these teams has games that stayed under the total but the Hoyas made just 4 of 20 from beyond the arc. The Hawks also shot poorly as they made just 6 of 31 from downtown. Georgetown faced San Diego State and St Joseph's faced USC. Even with facing tougher defensive teams yesterday the poor three point shooting was the difference maker. Now, these two teams that are certainly not known for defense are matched up and I expect a lot more points from each as a result. Both will shoot much better from 3-point land plus the overall flow of the game will be conducive to a high-scoring result as well. 10* OVER 145 in Georgetown |
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11-25-21 | USC v. St. Joe's OVER 150 | Top | 70-55 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
CBB Philly Special - 10* Top Play OVER 150 in St Joe's vs USC @ 9:30 ET (game played in Anaheim) - The Hawks can't stop anybody and have allowed 82.5 points per game now that they have stepped up to a little stronger competition last two games. St Joseph's does score well though as they are never afraid of playing at a fast pace and the Hawks have averaged 77 points per game last 3 games. The key here is USC can run and gun all over them but the Trojans also lost some length from last season's team that was so good defensively. So Southern Cal has allowed 71 points in 2 of their last 3 games but the Trojans also are averaging a stellar 85 points per game this season. Look for plenty of points in this one as it should play out with a lot of quick shots and plenty of points in transition too. 10* OVER 150 in St Joseph's |
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11-24-21 | Wisconsin v. St. Mary's +1.5 | Top | 61-55 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - 10* Top Play St Mary's Gaels +1.5 vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 5 ET - The Badgers off huge upset win over Oregon. Johnny Davis scored 30 points in that game but the rest of the team scored only 35 points. Also, the Ducks did a great job on him in the 2nd half and held Wisconsin to only 25 points total in the 2nd half of the near comeback win. That said, you can bet the Gaels will have some defensive focus centered around slowing Davis down. St Mary's has a veteran team and the Badgers are the much younger team in this match-up and the Gaels just knocked off Oregon by double digits yesterday. Keep in mind the Gaels are the #2 team in their conference but that #1 team is Gonzaga and, of course, the Bulldogs are the best team in the nation as they continue to prove on a game by game basis. That said, this Gaels team is flying a bit under the radar but they are really good and, after a poor shooting season last year, the shots have been falling much better for them this season and they keep that going here! 10* ST MARY'S +1.5 |
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11-24-21 | Houston -6 v. Oregon | 78-49 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - 8* Houston Cougars -6 vs Oregon Ducks @ 2:30 ET - Yesterday I faded the Cougars with Wisconsin and the Badgers got the outright upset win. However, Houston was down by 20 at the half and very nearly came all the way back for the win. This is a very good Cougars team and they will bounce back off that loss. I like the fact that they are facing a Ducks team today that is off a double digit loss to St Mary's and also got crushed by 32 by BYU this season too. Houston had been undefeated before yesterday's loss and all the Cougars wins had been by 8 or more points with 3 of the 4 victories by 18 or more points. 8* HOUSTON -6 |
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11-23-21 | Wisconsin +8 v. Houston | Top | 65-63 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
CBB Tourney Dominator - 10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers +8 vs Houston Cougars @ 5 ET - The Cougars are highly ranked and off a dominating win over Butler yesterday. However, Wisconsin is a solid team that is 4-1 this season and off a solid win over Texas A & M yesterday. The Badgers only loss this season was to Providence. Not only are the Friars a very deep and veteran team, Wisconsin was without Johnny Davis in that game. He is currently the Badgers leading scorer and combines in the backcourt with Brad Davison to give Wisconsin a solid 1-2 punch. Those guys are the top two scorers for the Badgers and they combined for 40 points in yesterday's win over the Aggies in the Maui Invitational being held here in Vegas where I live. I am following the tournament action and feel we have strong value here in a game projected to be very low-scoring and yet where were are getting significant points with a solid underdog. I'll take it! Yes the Cougars have been playing very well but this is a challenging match-up for them. 10* WISCONSIN +8 |
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11-22-21 | Butler v. Houston OVER 123 | Top | 52-70 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
CBB Afternoon Annihilation - 10* OVER 123 in Houston - I fully understand the reputation of Houston and Butler as grinders when it comes to pace of play and looking to grind out victories in lower-scoring games. However, I feel this total has been adjusted too far low. Especially with Houston shooting the 3-ball well early this season and with Butler, off a rare down season in terms of offensive efficiency, likely to ratchet things right back up to normal this season. The Cougars are scoring an average of 72 points per game in regulation time of their games this season. The Bulldogs are averaging 66 points per game this season. This game is part of the Maui Invitational but it was moved to Las Vegas for this year due to covid effecting travel requirements for entry into Hawaii. In this neutral site tourney action I am looking for strong outside shooting to carry both these teams and I expect it to be a close enough game late that we will get plenty of late points too based on one team fouling and the other jacking up quick threes to stay alive in the game. 10* OVER 123 in Houston |
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11-21-21 | St Bonaventure v. Marquette OVER 136.5 | Top | 70-54 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Week - 10* Top Play OVER 136.5 in Marquette - This is a tourney game being played in South Carolina. Both St Bonaventure and Marquette are hot to start the season as they each have perfect SU records. The Bonnies have averaged 70 points in their 5 wins and the Golden Eagles have averaged 78 points in their 4 wins. I look for plenty of points here as Marquette's strength is certainly NOT defense but this team can score well and is going to challenge St Bonaventure. The over is 4-1 this season because the Golden Eagles have allowed 70 points or more in 4 of 5 games. Look for that trend to continue here as the Bonnies struggle to slow them down but also have plenty of success at the other end. I feel the Golden Eagles are going to force a good tempo with this game as they don't want St Bonaventure to be able to slow it down into a half-court grinder. 10* OVER 136.5 in Marquette |
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11-20-21 | Detroit v. Louisville OVER 142.5 | Top | 67-73 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 23 m | Show |
CBB TWD Top Play - 10* Top Play OVER 142.5 in Louisville - The Cardinals want to play faster this season on offense. They made some changes in terms of assistant coaches and strategy and that is why they are scoring well even though they have made only 30% of three this season. Louisville is off B2B overs and averaging 74 points per game and will take advantage of facing a team that is allowing high shooting percentages so far this season. Detroit is allowing 81 points per game and the over is 2-0 in their last two games also. They have some scoring talent and should score well here as, like the Cardinals, they are also due to start shooting better from outside. The key here is the pace and I except the hosts to really run and gun in this game based on their strategic initiative and that should make for a game that gets into the 150s. 10* OVER 142.5 in Louisville |
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11-19-21 | Oklahoma v. Indiana State OVER 135.5 | Top | 87-63 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
TWD Top Play - CBB 10* OVER 135.5 in Indiana State - Yesterday the Sycamores allowed only 36 points to Old Dominion. Oklahoma is most definitely not Old Dominion. The shooting numbers for the Monarchs were absolutely atrocious from everywhere on the floor including only 11 of 24 free throws. That said, these Sooners are going to put up plenty of points on Indiana State and this game should fly over the total. Oklahoma is a double digit favorite for a reason and, keep in mind, the Sooners did allow 74 points in yesterday's win. The key for Oklahoma is their offense is averaging 84 points per game this season. By the way, Indiana State is averaging 79 points per game this season and lets not forget that in their first two games this season they allowed an average of 84.5 points per game. This one should fly over the total in this B2B tourney game situation for these clubs. Like the fact that we saw plenty of free throw attempts for the opponents in yesterday's games involving these teams as well. 10* OVER 135.5 in Indiana State |
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11-18-21 | Clemson v. Temple +5.5 | Top | 75-48 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
Philly Special - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #758 Thursday 10* Top Play Temple Owls +5.5 vs Clemson Tigers @ 4:30 ET - The Tigers have yet to play a strong team. Also, this Clemson team is going to really be hurting after the loss of some key players from last season and, in particular, that includes Aamir Simms. As for Temple, they already became battle-tested by having to battle USC in their most recent game. The Owls lost but it was good they had to battle with a solid Pac-12 team like the Trojans. Temple returns most of their key players from last season and they were heavily impacted by Covid last season so don't judge them too quickly on those results. This Owls team is highly talented and has experience and I look for them to surprise here. Yes the location of this game favors the Tigers but there is a reason this game for the Owls against an ACC school was priced this way. I look for them to surprise here and if they do fall short of the upset look for it only to be by a bucket or two. 10* TEMPLE +5.5 |
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11-17-21 | Drexel v. St. Joe's OVER 144.5 | Top | 78-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
Philly Special - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #659 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 144.5 in St Joseph's Hawks vs Drexel Dragons @ 7 ET - Big match-up for bragging honors in the city as these two Philly rivals match up. I expect the result to be plenty of points. Yes Drexel's most recent game stayed under but that was at Syracuse so not a big surprise the Dragons did not score well there. Now they are matched up with a team that likes to play fast and they will play the same way as well and both teams have shot well early this season. Both teams having trouble defending the 3-point arc early this season too. 10* OVER 144.5 in St Joseph's |
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11-16-21 | Howard v. Villanova -25.5 | Top | 81-100 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Early Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #688 Tuesday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats -25.5 vs Howard Bison @ 6:30 ET - It is not often that I lay big points but this spot is too good to pass up! The Wildcats are off a loss at UCLA Friday night and need a big bounce back. The Cats already proved in their season opener they will show no mercy on a team as they blew out Mount St. Mary's by 40 points. By the way, that team is in the Northeast Conference and expected to contend for the league title in a conference that certainly is a little tougher than the Mid-Eastern Conference that Howard resides in. Also, the Bison are expected to finish in the lower half of the conference and the Mid-Eastern is arguably the weakest in Division 1 basketball. Keep in mind, Howard is off the upset win at Bradley Saturday but the Braves missed half of their 26 free throws and shot horribly from 3-point land while the Bison lit it up from outside. Bradley outrebounded Howard by a big margin too. So the fact Howard, first two games were non-lined, is 3-0 this season is merely helping to give us line value here because the Wildcats are vastly superior and at home and are angry off a loss. Considering all these factors, another win in the 40-point range would not surprise me in the least. Either way big blowout by 30+ is likely. 10* VILLANOVA -25.5 |
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11-15-21 | Bowling Green +16.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 58-89 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #803 Monday 10* Top Play Bowling Green Falcons +16.5 @ Ohio State Buckeyes @ 6:30 ET - You might remember I faded the Buckeyes with another MAC team, Akron, last week in their season opener and the Zips very nearly upset Ohio State. This Falcons team is just as good as Akron. Also, Bowling Green already had their "wake up call" early this season as they lost their opener to Western Carolina. The Falcons responded by winning their most recent game by 41 points. Granted it was an over-matched team they faced but BG did return 4 starters from last season's team plus they added a bevy of Division 1 transfers and I expect this Falcons team to give OSU plenty of trouble here. Keep in mind, Ohio State was fortunate to even beat Akron and they were a huge favorite in that game and won by a point on a late bucket. The Buckeyes then "responded" by beating MAAC school Niagara by only 10 even though they were a 20-point favorite. That said, a lot of value with the big MAC dog again in this one. 10* BOWLING GREEN +16.5 |
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11-14-21 | Minnesota v. Princeton +2.5 | Top | 87-80 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
ESPN2 Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #696 Sunday 10* Top Play Princeton Tigers +2.5 vs Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 7:30 ET - The Golden Gophers are in rebuild mode. Yes Minnesota is a Big Ten school and is commanding more respect from the betting markets than an Ivy League school does but this is merely serving to give us some extra line value here with a solid Princeton team. The Tigers have outside shooters, have a solid system in place, and are the more cohesive team in comparison with Minny early this season. Yes the Gophers just upset Western Kentucky but the Tigers got an upset win of their own over South Carolina. Give me the points here as I look for the more veteran team to make the key decisions down the stretch that turn this game for them and so with them pulling away for the win we should not need the points. But I will grab them for extra value should they lose on a late bucket. 10* PRINCETON +2.5 |
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11-13-21 | Texas +7.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 74-86 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
ESPN2 Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #663 Saturday 10* Top Play Texas Longhorns +7.5 @ Gonzaga Bulldogs @ 10:30 ET - Gonzaga lost their top assistant coach as he went to Arizona. The Bulldogs also lost a couple key players from last year's amazing team. Make no mistake, and it goes without saying as the #1 ranked team in the nation, of course this is fantastic team in Spokane, WA. However, this UT team is for real. Texas hired away head coach Beard from rival Texas Tech and he has a bevy of fantastic assistant coaches with him and this team has added tremendous talent. Now when you add in all these factor plus the Longhorns hitting 13 of 23 three pointers in their opener while the Bulldogs shot 6 of 21 three pointers, you can see where I am going with this one. The Horns come in with the underdog mentality and an playing the disrespect card as if most give them no chance to win this game. I am here to tell you this Longhorns team is very good and extremely well-coached and they could get the upset win here! At the very least, this road dog should surely get the cover as I see this game absolutely going down to the wire. 10* TEXAS +7.5 |
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11-12-21 | Tarleton St +27 v. Kansas | Top | 62-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
CBB Contrarian Crusher - 10* Top Play Tarleton State Texans +27 - I know the Texans are only in their 2nd year since the jump to Division I basketball but this program is led by Billy Gillispie who has big school experience as a head coach. Tarleton State returned all 5 starters from last season's team and has other solid key reserves back as well. The Texans will do better to hang around in this game then most people are expecting. Kansas is off that big opening game win versus Michigan State so this is the perfect spot to fade them. I look for the Jayhawks to win by 15 to 20 and so we have some wiggle room with this huge line. I don't think Kansas is going to run up the score too much in this one and Gillispie is a good enough coach to get the most out of his players in a spot like this and their compete level will not stop. Just too many points! We'll take it. 10* TARLETON STATE +27 |
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11-11-21 | George Washington v. Maryland UNDER 142.5 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #774 Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER 142.5 in Maryland Terrapins vs George Washington Colonials @ 6:30 ET - Though both teams are off season opening wins, I expect each to ready to dial up the defensive intensity here. Maryland ranked 3rd in the Big Ten for points allowed last season but then allowed 69 points to Quinnipiac in their season opener. The Terrapins will be tougher on defense here and now lets talk about George Washington. The Colonials know they must play solid defense if they want to hang around in this game and they are motivated to face a nearby big school in this one. Indeed these campuses are not that far apart but GW comes come the A-10 while the Terps, of course, are in the Big Ten. George Washington can not afford to play fast here and risk being blown out and I feel the Colonials will try to slow this one down a little and stay within striking distance for a possible 2nd half rally. It is their best hope and this will be a bit of a grinder and this total has climbed a little too high in my opinion. 10* UNDER 142.5 in Maryland |
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11-10-21 | Buffalo +13.5 v. Michigan | Top | 76-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #747 Wednesday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bulls +13.5 @ Michigan Wolverines @ 6:30 ET - Michigan projected to be one of the best teams in the nation again this season but the Wolverines lost a ton of production from last season's team. That said, is going to take some time for this team to be firing on all cylinders. Buffalo, on the other hand, should hit the floor running - literally - as they enter this season with nearly their entire roster of starters and key returners back from last season's team. Yes the Bulls are "only" a MAC team but they are projected to be the #1 team in their conference and we are not asking them to win this game rather just to keep it respectable. That said, I love the value of the double digit points being offered in this one as I feel strongly that the Bulls are going to hang around in this one and lose by just a single digit margin. The Wolverines have the more talented players but the Bulls are the more cohesive group and that latter factor is particularly a key early in the season! 10* BUFFALO +13.5 |
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11-09-21 | Akron +16.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 66-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #605 Tuesday 10* Top Play Akron Zips +16.5 or +17 @ Ohio State Buckeyes @ 6 ET - Buckeyes are a ranked team and, as such, certainly are a high quality team. But Akron is relishing this shot against the big boys and I don't see them getting completely obliterated here. Maybe they lose by 10 or 12 but I really expect that the Zips could keep this one close in a game likely decided by a single digit margin. Ohio State actually ranked last in Big Ten defensive efficiency last season. Also, the Buckeyes lost their starting backcourt. The Zips lost their star guard but this is still a solid MAC program that brought back a lot of solid scoring talent on the wings too and has a solid interior defender. The Buckeyes are going to find out that the Zips came to play very hard in this one and I expect it to be quite the battle with Ohio State pulling away late but not by a big enough margin to cover this huge spread. 10* AKRON +16.5 or +17 |
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04-05-21 | Baylor +169 v. Gonzaga | Top | 86-70 | Win | 169 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Money Line Game of the Year - CBB Rotation #811 Monday 10* Top Play Baylor Bears Money Line (+170) vs Gonzaga Bulldogs @ 9:20 ET - The Bulldogs have had a great season and, really, that goes without saying as they are undefeated. I give them all the credit in the world for that but the reason so few teams in CBB history have ever had undefeated seasons on their way to being National Champions is because it is so hard to do. The fact is Gonzaga is lucky to even be here as they banked in a 3-pointer in overtime to survive against UCLA and that was in overtime. Granted the game was headed to double OT if the shot doesn't go in from just inside halfcourt but the fact remains the Bulldogs got pushed to the limit by a #11 seed. Let me repeat that...the supposed best team in the country nearly got ousted by a #11 seed that was nearly a 15 point dog in the match-up. Gonzaga never even sniffed a chance at getting the cover in the game. I could take the points in this match-up but I really don't expect to need them and that is why I am pulling the trigger on a rare money line play in hoops. I want the big plus money return when the battle-tested Bears win this game outright. Baylor has played a tougher schedule this season and the fact they have a couple losses on their record helps them coming into this game. They have tasted defeat. Since their most recent defeat they have won 5 straight and none of the games have been closer than a 9 point victory margin. Keep in mind the 4 most recent games came against Wisconsin (Big Ten), Villanova (Big East), Arkansas (SEC), and a highly-ranked Houston team from the AAC. Their regular season conference action was in the tough Big 12 whereas the Bulldogs played mostly cupcake opponents all season in the West Coast Conference. The strength of schedule strongly favors the Bears here and just like Baylor oust Arkansas after they barely survived for back to back nail-biting wins, the Bears now do the same against a Bulldogs team off a similar win. That OT game just 48 hours ago really tests the moxie of Gonzaga here and, as it stood already in this match-up, Baylor had the depth edge. Now after the way Saturday's games played out, even more value with the underdog in this one. No points needed. 10* BAYLOR +170 |
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04-03-21 | UCLA +14.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 90-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
Game of the Month - CBB Rotation #803 Saturday 10* Top Play UCLA Bruins (+) vs Gonzaga Bulldogs @ 8:34 ET - All you here about is Gonzaga and going for the undefeated season and how great they are. I get all that and the Bulldogs indeed just might do it. But they are over-priced here as a large favorite against a Bruins team that is doing a great job of playing with an "us against the world" mentality. When Alabama drilled that 3-pointer against UCLA at the buzzer to force OT in the Sweet 16 most teams would not have been able to overcome that. But the Bruins are proving to not be "most teams" as they calmly gathered themselves and beat the Crimson Tide handily in the OT period. That would have left most teams out of gas and unable to duplicate the effort against an even tougher foe, Michigan, in their next game but again "most teams" does not define this Bruins team. UCLA continues to surprise and they will be more competitive in this game than many people are expecting. I know Gonzaga just beat USC handily as they blitzed them early and the team could not recover. The Bulldogs outshot the Trojans as Southern Cal struggled to hit shots. I see the Bruins getting more clutch shots. It has been the nature of this team throughout the tournament and I see it continuing here. Of course I am not calling for an upset here. I am just saying I absolutely do expect the Bruins to hang within a single digit margin in this one. 10* UCLA |
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04-03-21 | Houston v. Baylor OVER 134.5 | Top | 59-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Earliest Dominator - CBB Rotation #801 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baylor Bears vs Houston Cougars @ 5:14 ET - All you hear talked about in this match-up is how strong these defenses are. However, Baylor has averaged 83 points per game this season and Houston has averaged 77 points per game this season. Something is going to have to give here and I think many will be surprised that there will be more scoring than expected. I know the Cougars are on a run of 3 straight unders but that had a lot to do with who they were playing. Previous to this, the over was on a 6-2 run in Houston games. Also, the over is on a 7-2 run in Baylor games and the Bears have scored at least 74 points in 8 of last 9 games. If they hit 74 again here and the odds makers are close with the 5 point spread than this game lands in the mid-140s. Indeed it does! 10* OVER the total in Baylor |
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03-30-21 | USC +8.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 66-85 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
CBB Rotation #657 Tuesday 10* Top Play USC Trojans (+) vs Gonzaga Bulldogs @ 7:15 ET - Gonzaga is a great team of course. They are undefeated on the season. However, the public bettors - and there a lot of them throwing plenty of money around during March Madness - are all over the Bulldogs. That said, even with that, this line is moving toward USC. Why is that? The sharps are on the Trojans here and you can include me in that group as well. The Trojans have played a tougher schedule. Also, Southern Cal matches up better with Gonzaga then any other team left in the tournament except perhaps Baylor would have a decent shot against the Bulldogs. We all know how rare undefeated seasons are. The point is that if Gonzaga was going to get upset this would likely be the game and truly I would not be surprised to see that happen here. Sprinkling a little on the money line here too is not a bad idea at all. The Trojans allow less points per game, allow a lower shooting percentage from the field, rebound the ball just as well, and also get more blocked shots on the defensive end than the Bulldogs. Again, Gonzaga is a great team but don't lose sight of all of the above plus the fact that the Dogs are being asked to win this game by double digits. I just don't see that happening and expect Southern Cal to be in this one all the way. USC is 25-7 on the season and only 1 loss was by more than 10 points. UCLA lost to the Trojans in both meetings this season and one of those was an 18-point lambasting. What does that have to do with this play? Well the Bruins knocked BYU out of the tourney with a win by nearly double digits. BYU is the best team, other than Gonzaga, in the Bulldogs conference. The Cougars lost all 3 games against Gonzaga this season - once in tournament - but the average margin was 12 points. Like I said, UCLA knocked out Brigham Young and Southern Cal better than UCLA. This game in Elite 8 action going to be much closer than the public thinks. 10* USC |
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03-29-21 | Oregon State v. Houston OVER 129 | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
#655 CBB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Cougars vs Oregon State Beavers @ 7:15 ET - We are getting a lower total than we should in my opinion. The number on this one has moved down from its opener too. The recent results for each of these teams have forced an over-reaction in the marketplace so lets take a closer look at this. The Beavers just faced a Loyola-Chicago team known for low-scoring games and that one still totaled 123 points. Prior to that low-scoring win - impressive that Oregon State scored 65 on a tough Ramblers defense - the Beavers had scored an average of 72.5 points per game their preceding 8 games. That does not include any OT points in the average and they scored at least 67 points in all 8 games. Oregon State is an 8 point dog in this game. Even if the Beavers scored only 65 like they did against Loyola that would still put this game in the upper 130s if the odds makers are correct about the Cougars being an 8 point favorite here (73-65 final using that example). Shifting focus to Houston for a minute, I am well aware they play solid defense but their overall point totals have been impacted by recent match-ups. The Cougars last two games were against the vaunted zone defense of Syracuse and a scrappy Rutgers team known for physicality and making teams really earn their points. So what happened prior to these two games? Houston won 8 straight games and scored at least 76 points in all but one of the wins! I am not saying this game will be high-scoring but the point is that it does not have to be high scoring to go over this low total. Given all of the above stats you can see why I am expecting this one to get closer to the 140 range and yet we're talking about a total posted in the upper 120s as of game day morning. I will take it! 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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03-28-21 | UCLA +7 v. Alabama | Top | 88-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Sweet 16 Game of the Year - NCAA 10* Top Play UCLA Bruins (+) vs Alabama Crimson Tide @ 7:15 ET - This line has consistently climbed and is now a full +7 as of gameday morning. Look for the underdog Bruins to surprise some people in this one. I know that Alabama is on an 8-game winning streak but 4 of their last 9 wins have been by a margin of 5 or less points. Also, the Crimson Tide final two wins of the SEC tourney came by a combined 6 points. One of those wins was over LSU who just got bounced by a Big Ten foe in this tourney and the Big Ten has underachieved in this tourney this season. Also, the other win was over Tennessee and the Vols just got bounced from this tourney by Oregon State. Coincidentally now another SEC team takes on a Pac-12 team and I expect this to be another very challenging game for the favorite. The Crimson Tide are a solid team but coach Cronin has this Bruins team believing. Though they entered the tourney on a losing streak their recent Pac-12 losses were by a combined 5 points the last 2 games and were against USC and Oregon State. Both the Trojans and Beavers are still alive in this tournament. The loss before that was Oregon, also still alive in this tournament. And all these losses were by a single digit margin. Alabama only had to beat Iona and Maryland (again, Big Ten struggling) to get to this point and the Tide face a dangerous Pac-12 underdog in this one. All the pressure is on Bama here and the Bruins shot the ball very well this season, even in road games, and with an underdog "nothing to lose" mentality could give Alabama fits here as all the pressure is on the favorite. Upset alert but I will grab the points as added insurance as the Pac-12 ATS dominance continues. 10* UCLA |
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03-28-21 | Florida State +2 v. Michigan | 58-76 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - NCAA 8* Florida State Seminoles (+) vs Michigan Wolverines @ 5 ET - The Big Ten certainly underachieved in this tournament. Yes Michigan is still alive but there is a reason this line moved toward Florida State even though the Wolverines are ranked higher. I look for the Seminoles to give Michigan a lot of trouble down low at both ends of the court. In other words, easy buckets for FSU in the paint while the Wolverines will find the going in and around the paint very tough in the offensive end. Of course the biggest edge of all here is the coaching edge for the veteran Hamilton over the inexperienced Howard. The loss of forward Isaiah Livers was also a huge one for Michigan. The fact we are getting points here is simply an added bonus as I fully expect Hamilton to outcoach Howard and the Noles to advance to the Elite 8 with a solid win here. 8* FLORIDA STATE |
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03-28-21 | Creighton +13.5 v. Gonzaga | 65-83 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Big East Beast - NCAA 8* Creighton Bluejays (+) vs Gonzaga Bulldogs @ 2:10 ET - Too many points. Gonzaga was fortunate to get the cover against Oklahoma and we all know how badly the Big 12 ended up performing in this tournament. That said, Gonzaga got here off a win over the Sooners and facing an outclassed Norfolk State team. Of course the Bulldogs are a great team and that is why they are undefeated on the season. But they will face a major test here. I expect Gonzaga to win but look for this game to be decided by a single digit margin. The Bluejays actually have slightly better defensive numbers than the Bulldogs and they played the tougher schedule this season too. After Creighton had some tough recent shooting efforts, they got it going in their most recent win in NCAA Tourney action. That is a huge confidence boost for the Bluejays and they will carry momentum from that better shooting effort right into this game. 8* CREIGHTON |
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03-27-21 | Oral Roberts +11.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Top Play - 10* Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (+) vs Arkansas Razorbacks @ 7:25 ET - Arkansas is off a tight win over Texas Tech but the Big 12, other than Baylor, really ended up being a dud in this tournament. What I like about Oral Roberts here is they score so well and are dangerous with their 3-point shooting. I don't expect them to have the same scoring droughts that Colgate had in the opening round against the Razorbacks. Keep in mind, Colgate led Arkansas 33-19 before allowing a 17-0 run to end the half. Then, after tying the game at 58 more than halfway through the 2nd half, Colgate allowed a game-ending 27-10 run. Those two 17 point differentials were, of course, the key to the Razorbacks win and cover. That is not happening against Oral Roberts and I feel Arkansas is a little over-rated in this match-up. I expect them to win this game but only by a single digit margin as the Golden Eagles will put up a helluva fight. Only 4 of the last 13 games for the Razorbacks have resulted in an Arkansas win by more than 11 points. The Golden Eagles lost by 11 at Arkansas in December but got dominated on the glass in that one. They are well aware of that fact and though the Razorbacks will hold a rebounding edge thanks to their size and athleticism edges, you can bet the hungry underdog is going to be much better on the glass in this one than they were in the first meeting. 10* ORAL ROBERTS |
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03-27-21 | Villanova +7.5 v. Baylor | 51-62 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Big East Beast - 8* Villanova Wildcats (+) vs Baylor Bears @ 5:15 ET - The Big 12 has not been what it was cracked up to be heading into this tournament. That said, the lone remaining team is certainly a good one but just how good are they given the lackluster performance of the Big 12 in this tournament? Even though the Wildcats are without Collin Gillespie, I like them in this spot as a live dog. The Bears just beat Wisconsin but the teams scored exactly the same number of points from the field. Yes Baylor outscored the Badgers at the free throw line by 13 points but another key to the game was 14 turnovers for Wisconsin compared to just 4 for the Bears. That is not happening for Baylor against Villanova. Also, since the covid pause that impacted the Bears program, they finished the regular season and Big 12 tournament on a combined 5-2 SU run. Not only did they lose 2 of 7 games but 3 of their 5 wins were by 6 or less points including one in OT. I do feel Baylor will find a way to win this game but it won't be easy and the points are far too much against a well-coached Wildcats team that also has plenty of big-game experience. Look for this one to go down to the wire as the Cats only two losses since Gillespie got hurt came by a combined total of just three points! 8* VILLANOVA |
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03-27-21 | Mississippi State v. Louisiana Tech OVER 135 | 84-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
8* OVER the total in Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Mississippi State Bulldogs @ 3 ET - In this battle of the Bulldogs I am going with the over after getting burned by the over in Mississippi State's tight win over Richmond. That game fell just short of going over the total but look for this one to make up for it. Most books have Mississippi State favored by 1 here and the fact is that Louisiana Tech has had only one ugly scoring performance (versus North Texas) of late. In Louisiana Tech's other 8 most recent games, they have scored at least 69 points all 8 games. In fact the average points scored in those 8 games was 79.4 points! Given the above as well as the spread on this game, don't be surprised if each team gets into the 70s here and we have a solid over as a result. 8* OVER the total in Louisiana Tech |
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03-25-21 | NC State v. Colorado State +2 | Top | 61-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
NIT Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #614 Thursday 10* Top Play Colorado State Rams (+) vs NC State Wolfpack @ 7 ET - The Wolfpack have played a tougher schedule than the Rams this season but I am fading the line move here and grabbing the team that has proven to be more committed to defense. On the season Colorado State allowed 66 points per game. Note that North Carolina State allowed 74 points in games away from home this season! The Rams held opponents to lower shooting percentages from the field including beyond the arc. While the Wolfpack were in the mid-40s and mid-30s respectively in those two categories, the Rams were closer to 40% and 30% respectively. Before a high-scoring win over Buffalo last week, Colorado State allowed 62 points or less in 5 of 7 games. NC State, on the other hand, allowed an average of 79 points per game the two games preceding the win over Davidson last week. The Rams find a way here and get more stops when it counts. 10* COLORADO STATE |
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03-25-21 | Mississippi State v. Richmond OVER 136.5 | Top | 68-67 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #611 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Richmond Spiders vs Mississippi State Bulldogs @ 6 ET - I am aware of the Spiders injury situation here but this was also the case heading into their game versus Toledo last week in this tourney. I successfully used Richmond in that one but here I am going with the over instead. The point is the Spiders can score just fine even though Golden is out and Francis might miss again but, the thing is, I do not trust their defense in this match-up. Richmond has allowed an average of 69 points per game this season as they allow a very high shooting percentage (46%) from the field. The under has cashed 5 straight times in Spiders games but 4 of the 5 totaled more than the total posted on this game! Value here as a result! Mississippi State has scored at least 71 points in 3 of its last 4 games. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 in the Bulldogs last 5 games with another high-scoring game here. Mississippi State has allowed 76 points per game their last 4 games. 10* OVER the total in Richmond |
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03-24-21 | Coastal Carolina +5.5 v. Pepperdine | Top | 61-84 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #609 Wednesday 10* Top Play Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (+) vs Pepperdine Waves @ 8 ET - Coastal Carolina blew a late lead and had to go to OT to beat Stetson yesterday. Yes the Waves are a better team than the Hatters. However, the Chanticleers won that game yesterday despite making just 4 of 16 three-pointers and 17 of 32 free throws. On the season Coastal Carolina hits 36% of threes and 72% of free throws. In other words, yesterday's poor shooting unlikely to be repeated here and I also do not expect Pepperdine to have a big rebounding edge like they did yesterday. The Chanticleers are a solid rebounding team. Also, though the Waves won yesterday's game by double digits, they actually had 5 less shots from the field than Bellarmine. Also, Pepperdine hit 46% of their threes. That is unlikely to be repeated here and Coastal Carolina is a solid team defensively. The Chanticleers allowed 67.6 points this season on just 38.5% from the field and only 30.8% from three point land. Grab the points in this one and don't be surprised if the underdog wins this one outright. If not, the loss likely to be by the slimmest of margins. 10* COASTAL CAROLINA |
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03-23-21 | Stetson +7.5 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 72-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #601 Tuesday 10* Top Play Stetson Hatters (+) vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ 5:30 ET - The Hatters beat Bellarmine in the Atlantic Sun conference tourney and, of course, that is the same Bellarmine team that is taking on Pepperdine in the other CBI game going today. The point being that Stetson is better than their record indicates and are playing solid basketball at the right time of the season for sure. That does not mean they will upset Coast Carolina here but it does mean there are strong odds this is going to be a helluva game that goes down to the wire. That said, I don't see the Chanticleers covering this big number and they actually played a slightly weaker schedule than Stetson did this season. Also, the Hatters have won 3 of 4 games and their only loss was to Liberty who ended up in the NCAA Tourney. The 3-1 run by Stetson was preceded by a 1-2 stretch but both losses came by 5 or less points and the Hatters should be in this one all the way with Coastal Carolina as well. 10* STETSON |
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03-22-21 | Colorado +2 v. Florida State | Top | 53-71 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #827 Monday 10* Top Play Colorado Buffaloes (+) vs Florida State Seminoles @ 7:45 ET - I am going with Colorado again here after successfully using them against Georgetown on Saturday. In that write-up I mentioned the following: "The Buffaloes are a strong team in both defensive and offensive efficiency. Also, they are a top free throw shooting team. They will be very focused here coming off a disappointing 2-point loss in the Pac-12 tourney to Oregon State who, by the way, is a pretty good team as shown yesterday. The Beavers won outright versus Tennessee by double digits as nearly a double digit dog!" Keep in mind Oregon State followed up the win over the Volunteers with another upset win over Oklahoma State yesterday. The Pac-12 is showing in this tournament that it is quite strong and I look for that trend to continue in this match-up. The Buffaloes will take advantage of a Seminoles team that is strong but has a couple of key weaknesses. Florida State often allows teams too many second chance scoring opportunities. In games away from home this season the Noles allowed 13 offensive boards this season which is nearly double what the Buffs allowed as travelers. Also, FSU known for turning the ball over too much. Florida State pulled away very late in their game against UNC Greensboro but now faces a much tougher opponent and the Seminoles have failed to get the cash in 4 straight games while the Buffaloes are on a 5-2 ATS run and get the job done again there. 10* COLORADO |
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03-22-21 | Ohio v. Creighton OVER 148.5 | Top | 58-72 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
Big East Beast - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #819 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Creighton Bluejays vs Ohio Bobcats @ 6:10 ET - The Bobcats made it to this point for one key reason. Ohio University has a very explosive offense. Ohio enters this game having scored an average of 80 points per game on the season. This is even after their low-scoring upset win over Virginia to reach this point. Keep in mind, the Cavaliers are known for defense so that game was a battle of each team trying to impose their own style and Virginia, of course, would not run and gun with the Bobcats. However, Creighton absolutely will! The Bluejays have a high-scoring offense given the right match-up and this is one of those match-ups! Creighton if off 3-straight low-scoring games but this is still a team that has averaged 77 points per game on the season. Now in their 2nd game of this tournament, the Bluejays will shoot much better. That said, this should fly over the total as the Bobcats want to play up-tempo and will be ready for an explosive game after dealing with the frustration of facing the Cavaliers defense. 10* OVER the total in Creighton |
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03-22-21 | Oklahoma +14 v. Gonzaga | 71-87 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #817 Monday 8* Oklahoma Sooners (+) vs Gonzaga Bulldogs @ 2:40 ET - I am aware of the De'Vion Harmon situation for the Sooners but feel strongly that this is still far too many points. Oklahoma is "only" 16-10 on the season but 8 of their last 9 losses came by a margin of 7 or less points. Also, the Sooners played the tougher schedule this season in comparison with Gonzaga. Keep in mind, the Bulldogs were on a 1-3 ATS run before getting the cover against Norfolk State in the first round but that game was a clearly a complete mismatch as evidenced by the huge spread on the game. The Bulldogs have been a favorite in range of 11 to 14 points twice in the past 7 weeks and they did not win either game by more than 11 points. Considering that as well as the Sooners knack for tight losses, look for this one to surprise many and be decided by single digits. 8* OKLAHOMA |
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03-21-21 | North Texas v. Villanova -5 | Top | 61-84 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #804 Sunday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs North Texas Mean Green @ 8:45 ET - Villanova keeps catching breaks. Yes they are without Collin Gillespie and that has derailed their bigger hopes and dreams for this season but I don't see them bowing out just yet. Their first match-up was against Winthrop and, though a quality team, that was a smaller school program that the Wildcats could handle. Now they were supposed to be facing Purdue in this round. A dangerous Big Ten team would have been tough on the short-handed Cats. However, Nova caught a break as North Texas upset the Boilermakers in the first round! The Mean Green, don't get me wrong, are certainly a quality team but they are similar to Winthrop in that they don't come from a Power Five conference and lets not forget how strong Villanova is. Yes the Gillespie injury is a significant issue for them but lets not forget the other talent that is on this team. The Mean Green played a much weaker schedule than the Wildcats did this season and I know they are well-coached and play solid defense but both those two items describe the Wildcats as well. So what is the difference then? The level of players the Wildcats have. That is why the Cats are in the Big East and the Mean Green are in Conference USA. Again, not knocking the team, just saying that there is a difference in talent level and we are now getting solid line value here since the Wildcats are without Gillespie and North Texas just upset Purdue in OT in the first round. Now the Cats are laying just 5 points as the markets love the dog in this one. Everything clicked for the Mean Green in their upset of the Boilermakers. This is still a North Texas team that lost 3 straight games to close out the regular season prior to making a run through their conference tourney. 10* VILLANOVA |
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03-21-21 | Loyola-Chicago +7.5 v. Illinois | 71-58 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #809 Sunday 8* Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (+) vs Illinois Illini @ 12:10 ET - These in-state rivals having a rare meeting here. Did you see Abilene Christian (located in Texas) upset the Longhorns last night? The point is that these in-state meetings come tourney time can certainly be dangerous for the bigger programs. The hungry underdogs facing the bullies of the neighborhood tend to kick things up a notch and be highly aggressive and motivated. I am not saying another upset looms here but I am expecting this game to go down to the wire. The Ramblers are very well coached and, of course, the Illini are too. But, the point is that Loyola is catching points here in a game in which they are going to be very hard to put away. Illinois, prior to destroying Drexel in the first round, had seen 3 of their 6 immediately preceding wins come by 5 or less points. Loyola has just 4 losses this season and 3 of the 4 were by a margin of 5 or less points. This one goes down to the wire. 8* LOYOLA-CHICAGO |
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03-20-21 | Maryland +3.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 63-54 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Big East Beast Top Side - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #791 Saturday 10* Top Play Maryland Terrapins vs Connecticut Huskies @ 7:10 ET - Both teams play solid defense and struggle some in the offensive end. In a game likely to be a low-scoring grinder, there is even more value than usual with having the points on your side. I especially like having the points in this case because the Terrapins do have a great shot at the outright upset here. The Huskies rely heavily on James Bouknight and he has not been himself in recent games. He has only had one strong shooting performance in his last 4 games. In those 3 games Bouknight combined to go 12 of 38 from the field and averaged just 13.3 points per game! Connecticut needs him but the Terps have the defenders to shut him down plus he has had just one big game from 3-point land last 10 games. In the other 9 games he has gone a combined 5 of 31 from downtown. Overated? Sure looks like it but it could be a health issue right now. Either way the Huskies are not necessarily the better team here and, especially with consideration to the Bouknight situation, a well-coached Terrapins team that has bought into a commitment to defense makes the underdog the play here. 10* MARYLAND |
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03-20-21 | UC-Santa Barbara v. Creighton OVER 137 | Top | 62-63 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
Big East Beast Top Total - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #767 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Creighton Bluejays vs UC Santa Barbara Gauchos @ 3:30 ET - As usual I am fading the masses here. This total opened up at a 140.5 and is now down to as low as a 137 as of early game day morning. I fully understand that Creighton is off back to back low-scoring games but, when this happened during the season the Bluejays responded with a big performance in the 3rd game. Look for that to be the case again here and note that the Gauchos can score right along with them. UCSB averaged 75 points this season while Creighton averaged 77 points per game this season. Both teams are strong from outside the arc and fire up plenty of threes. Cal Santa Barbara averaged 77.2 points per game in a 5-0 win streak to close out the season. The Bluejays, prior to a tough 2-game stretch offensively in the Big East tournament, averaged 90 points over 2 previous games. Look for this game to have a good pace with a lot of quick points in transition. 10* OVER the total in Creighton |
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03-20-21 | Georgetown v. Colorado -5.5 | 73-96 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
Big East Beast EARLY - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #784 Saturday 8* Colorado Buffaloes (-) vs Georgetown Hoyas @ 12:15 ET - Congrats to the Hoyas on an amazing run through the Big East tournament as they managed to win it thanks, in part, to Villanova being without all-everything guard Collin Gillespie. Now after certainly deserving of being commended for the Big East run, Georgetown's season with end with a thud here. The Buffaloes are a strong team in both defensive and offensive efficiency. Also, they are a top free throw shooting team. They will be very focused here coming off a disappointing 2-point loss in the Pac-12 tourney to Oregon State who, by the way, is a pretty good team as shown yesterday. The Beavers won outright versus Tennessee by double digits as nearly a double digit dog! So the Hoyas are off their biggest win of the season and Colorado is off a 2-point loss that will have them very dialed in for this game. The Buffaloes went 6-1 this season when entering a game off a loss and the average margin of victory was 12 points. 8* COLORADO |
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03-19-21 | Winthrop v. Villanova -6.5 | Top | 63-73 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
Big East Beast - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #730 Friday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Winthrop Eagles @ 9:57 ET - The Wildcats are in trouble here according to many people. That is because they lost Collin Gillespie to a season-ending injury two weeks ago. I know he was a very important player but do people realize the disparity between these two teams in terms of level of opposition they face each year? Yes Winthrop went 23-1 this season but they played no one of any significance. I am serious. Give them credit for a strong season as they took care of business for sure but again their "business" was nothing like what Villanova faces in the Big East. In fact, even comparing non-conference schedules, there is simply no comparison. The toughest game for Winthrop this season was UNC Greensboro. The Wildcats, conversely, were facing teams like Texas and a team that was ranked 18th when they faced them and a Virginia Tech team that is now ranked 25th. That was their non-conference schedule and, again, the Big East competition they faced all season was tougher than the Big South competition the Eagles faced. The fact the Wildcats are without Gillespie here actually helps us in terms of ATS value here in my opinion. We get a lower line as a result as a 6.5 is much more manageable than a double digit line where the back door cover always looms with "meaningless" late buckets. At the same time, you know Villanova will not overlook Winthrop either because, without Gillespie, the Wildcats know they must maintain proper focus here. Nova by double digits! 10* VILLANOVA |
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03-19-21 | Wisconsin v. North Carolina OVER 137 | Top | 85-62 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #727 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in North Carolina Tar Heels vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 7:10 ET - I am well aware of the fact that Wisconsin plays solid defense and has been known for scoring troubles at the other end at times this season. However, North Carolina is going to force the tempo here. The Tar Heels do not want this game to turn into a half-court battle. Also, UNC can score plenty in transition and even at the risk of getting sloppy and seeing buckets going the other way. I simply do not see the Heels sitting back on their heels here! It will be full speed ahead and getting quick looks at the buckets including easy looks for their big men down low. The Badgers are a streaky shooting team and I see this is as being one of their better games. Why? Well UNC allowed 36% three pointers away from home this season. By the way, Wisconsin allowed 44.4% shooting from the field when away from Madison this season. Also, North Carolina allowed 69 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games. Their most recent game stayed under the total but the Tar Heels entered that game on a 6-2 run to the over. Also, the Badgers are off an under but this followed a 4-0 run to the over in Wisconsin games in which they allowed at least 73 points in all 4 games. Also, the Badgers ugly game against Iowa was preceded by a 5-game stretch in which they scored at least 68 in all 5 games. Look for each team to get to 70 here in a match-up that will surprise many in terms of the pace it is played at. 10* OVER the total in North Carolina |
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03-19-21 | Drexel +23 v. Illinois | 49-78 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
Earliest Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #741 Friday 8* Drexel Dragons (+) vs Illinois Illini @ 1:15 ET - Illinois is a great team of course and a popular choice to win it all this season. However, this is still too many points in my opinion. This is particularly true with Drexel having backdoor cover potential as well. The Dragons went a fantastic 11-3 ATS in road games this season as they averaged 72.4 points as travelers on 49.1% shooting from the field including 39.2% from three point land. Teams that shoot the ball that well away from home make for dangerous underdogs in a tournament setting. I still expect the Illini to win this game by double digits but I expect the Dragons to actually stay inside the number the entire way in this one. Only 4 of the last 21 victories for the Illini have been decided by a margin greater than 23 points. The key cogs in the Dragons rotation are upperclassmen and they have enough veteran leadership to weather the storm here and remain competitive throughout. The Illini pull away late but still win this one by no more than 18 points in my opinion. 8* DREXEL |
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03-18-21 | Drake v. Wichita State +2.5 | Top | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #714 Thursday 10* Top Play Wichita State Shockers (+) vs Drake Bulldogs @ 6:27 ET - Here is another one with a classic line flip. Wichita State was favored by 2.5 points and now the line has swung the other way and it is Drake favored by 2.5 points! I know the Bulldogs have the better record on the season but they closed the season going 7-4 last 11 games including losing 2 of last 3. Wichita State closed the season with a loss to Cincinnati by just a single point in the AAC Tourney but this followed an 8-game winning streak for the Shockers! In fact, Wichita State was on a 15-2 run prior to the loss to the Bearcats. The Shockers and Bulldogs are former rivals in the Missouri Valley Conference but Wichita State is now in the AAC and did play the tougher schedule this season. I do not believe the betting markets are practically factoring that into this match-up and we'll take advantage of that here. 10* WICHITA STATE |
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03-18-21 | Mt. St. Mary's v. Texas Southern +1 | 52-60 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Earliest Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #716 Thursday 8* Texas Southern Tigers vs Mount St Mary's Mountaineers @ 5:10 ET - The line move here has gone from Texas Southern being favored by 2.5 points to Mount St Mary's being favored by 1.5 points. The Mountaineers have struggled to get consistent offensive production this season while the Tigers strength is scoring in bunches. Texas Southern averages 75 points per game while Mount St Mary's averages only 64 points per game. Also, there were only 4 teams in the conference tournament Mount St Mary's just played in. Texas Southern enters this game off 9 straight wins and having won 14 of last 15 games. The Mountaineers enter this match-up just 4-3 SU last 7 games and one of those wins came in overtime. The Tigers have scored 73 points or more, not including OT points, in 11 of last 12 games. 8* TEXAS SOUTHERN |
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03-17-21 | Toledo v. Richmond +3 | Top | 66-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #706 Wednesday 10* Top Play Richmond Spiders (+) vs Toledo Rockets @ 7 ET - I understand the line flip here but the Spiders opened up as the favorite for a reason. Now Richmond is a 3 point dog and I won't hesitate to step in. The Spiders have had about two weeks off and normally that is a bad thing but that is not the case here! Senior big man Grant Golden (finger) and senior guard Blake Francis (hip) have both been able to recover better from injuries as a result of the extra time off. These two are the top two scorers for Richmond and Golden is also solid in terms of assists and rebounds. I know each of these guys have been listed as a game time decision for this evening but I would be very surprised if they miss this game. Keep in mind, the NIT is down from the usual 32 teams to just 16 for this season. The Spiders certainly want to make a run at it and I just don't see these guys missing this game. I know Richmond is on a 3-game losing streak but Francis missed the most recent game and played only 9 minutes in the prior game (got hurt) and with Francis in the lineup for a full game the Spiders have never lost back to back games. I feel strongly that both guys will play but even if 1 of the 2 misses, Richmond will have 4 guys on the floor that average double digits in points, and again I do expect this number to be 5 though! The Spiders are undervalued here against a MAC team that, in regulation time, has allowed an average of 77 points per game last 4 games. The Rockets will struggle to do enough on the defensive end against a Spiders team that has allowed an average of only 65.6 points per game even during a rough 4-4 stretch to end the season! 10* RICHMOND |
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03-14-21 | Ohio State v. Illinois -6 | Top | 88-91 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
Championship Best Bet - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #658 Sunday 10* Top Play Illinois Illini (-) vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 3:30 ET - The Buckeyes upset Michigan yesterday thanks to hitting a ridiculous 12 of 22 three pointers! The Illini hung on to beat Iowa yesterday despite making only 3 of 15 three pointers! You see the difference? This is helping to create line value here because Ohio State scored a total of only 32 points yesterday from inside the arc. Illinois scored a total of 73 points yesterday from inside the arc. Recent meetings between these teams have been tight but I look for the Illini to pull away as this one goes on. The Buckeyes are playing for 4th time in 4 days and their game prior to upsetting the Wolverines went into overtime too. Conversely, the Illini are playing just their 3rd game in 3 days and their first one was a blowout win over Rutgers. Strong situational edge here for the favorite. Lay it. 10* ILLINOIS |
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03-13-21 | Georgetown v. Creighton OVER 143 | Top | 73-48 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Big East Beast - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #619 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Creighton Bluejays vs Georgetown Hoyas @ 6:30 ET - Not only did each of the Big East semi-final games involving these teams stay under the total, they did not even come close to going over. However, the Hoyas did allow 62 shots from the field to Seton Hall yesterday but the Pirates had a horrible shooting performance. As for the Bluejays game, they also took 62 shots but shot poorly and they faced a Connecticut team that also shot very poorly. Give some credit to the defensive play as well but this situation falls into the "I have seen this movie before" category! After a pair of low-scoring games yesterday, the betting markets are now backing the under here and yet we'll see much better shooting today and a great pace to this game. Like I said, I have seen situations like this in the past and this is so often how it ends up playing out. The posted total on the two games between these teams in each of the two regular season meetings was in the 150 to 152 range and now you have a total on this one dipping into the low 140s. This is a value spot. The last meeting between these teams totaled just 111 points which is also leading to line value here. The teams entered that game on a 3-0 run to the over in their meetings and had totaled at least 151 points in 4 consecutive meetings. By the way, Creighton had averaged 90 points per game in their 2 games immediately preceding yesterday's low-scoring win. As for Georgetown, they had averaged 72.4 points per game in their 5 games preceding yesterday's low scoring win. The Bluejays are favored by 9 points here and that puts this game in the 82-73 range or mid-150s which is well above where this total is now. Lets take advantage. 10* OVER the total in Big East Championship Game |
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03-12-21 | Connecticut v. Creighton OVER 143.5 | Top | 56-59 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Big East Beast Top Total - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #849 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Creighton Bluejays vs Connecticut Huskies @ 9 ET - These teams are both on fire right now and I don't see that slowing down here. The Huskies have been a different team since James Bouknight came back. Connecticut enters this game on a 5-game winning streak and has averaged scoring 81.2 points per game during this win streak. Overall the Huskies have won 7 of 8 games and have averaged 80.6 points per game in the 7 wins. Now UConn faces a Creighton team which is off back to back wins in which they have averaged scoring 90 points per game. Also, the Bluejays have scored at least 77 points in each of their last 4 wins and that includes a victory over Villanova in which the Jays scored 86 points. I just don't see either team being stopped here today as they are both loaded with confidence right now in the offensive end and that means plenty of points from both teams. In regulation time of their two games this season they averaged only 136 points but the situation was different in terms of player health for those match-ups as well as just the way the teams were playing at the time. I like what I am seeing from both these teams right now and look for plenty of points in this one as a result. Already firing on all cylinders at MSG, more of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Creighton |
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03-12-21 | Georgetown v. Seton Hall -2.5 | Top | 66-58 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Big East Beast Top Side - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #848 Friday 10* Top Play Seton Hall Pirates (-) vs Georgetown Hoyas @ 6 ET - The Pirates are off a hard-fought OT win but the Hoyas have the disadvantage of playing a 3rd game in 3 days. Also, Georgetown is off a huge upset win over Villanova. Conversely, Seton Hall's win over St John's did not come easily but the fact is the Pirates had finished the regular season on a 4-game losing streak. As a result, Seton Hall felt some extra pressure in their 1st game of the Big East tourney. With that first win now out of the way, and with the Pirates the only team other than Villanova to win this tourney in recent years, Seton Hall knows they have a real shot at winning this tournament thanks to the Wildcats being knocked out of it. I like the fact that the Pirates reached double digits in shots blocked yesterday plus held the Red Storm to just 24% from beyond the arc. The Hoyas benefitted from hitting 41% from three point land yesterday plus going 23 for 23 from the line against Nova. Neither of those stats likely to be repeated here and I expect the Pirates to roll in this one as a result. They beat the Hoyas when they faced them away from Georgetown and the only reason they lost the game in which they visited them is because the Hoyas made a ridiculous 10 of 16 shots from beyond the arc. That is not being repeated here. 10* SETON HALL |
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03-11-21 | Butler v. Creighton OVER 135 | Top | 56-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
Big East Beast Top - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #697 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Creighton Blue Jays vs Butler Bulldogs @ 6 ET - I am well aware of the fact that this game is at Madison Square Garden and both Butler and Creighton do not score as well when they are away from home. I am also aware that we got some good fortune here yesterday when the Bulldogs game against Xavier went to overtime and that allowed that game to get over the total. However, lets look at some important facts here and why I am expecting yet another over involving these teams (I used the over in their Saturday match-up as a big play). The fact is that Creighton has scored quite well on the road in recent weeks other than a tough battle at Villanova - but who does not struggle with the Wildcats? That said, lets look at the Blue Jays other 5 road games since mid-January. Creighton has averaged 71.4 points per game in those 5 games. As for the Bulldogs, they are on a hot run of upset wins so they are surging with confidence. Butler has won 3 of its last 4 games and even though 2 of their last 3 games have been played away from home, the Bulldogs averaged 68.3 points per game in regulation time of those 3 games. Given those numbers and the fact that the Blue Jays are a double digit favorite here with good reason, you can see why I like the over in this match-up. The last meeting totaled 166 points and though the prior meeting this season was low-scoring, Creighton had an unusually poor shooting game in that one. The Blue Jays are again firing on all cylinders now and Butler is playing at a higher level thanks to all the recent upset wins boosting confidence. The result should be another high-scoring shootout here. 10* OVER the total in Creighton |
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03-11-21 | Seton Hall -110 v. St. John's | 77-69 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
Big East Beast - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #695 Thursday 8* Seton Hall Pirates (+) vs St John's Red Storm @ 3 ET - These teams just met over the weekend and the Red Storm got the win but shot ridiculously high percentages from both inside and outside the arc! I don't expect that to be repeated here and the Pirates had taken 3 in a row from St John's prior to that loss. Also, from what I am seeing, most of the tickets are being written on the Red Storm in early wagering action for this one but yet the line moved toward a Seton Hall team that has lost 4 straight games SU and is also on a 6-game skid ATS. What does that tell us? Some sharp money coming in on the Pirates here! I rate Seton Hall as the better team defensively in this match-up and now that it is tournament time look for that to be a factor here and the Pirates pull away late in this one. 8* SETON HALL |
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03-10-21 | Butler v. Xavier OVER 133 | Top | 70-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
Big East Beast Top - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #627 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Xavier Musketeers vs Butler Bulldogs @ 6 ET - These teams met a little over two weeks ago and the game totaled a ridiculous 114 points. That is because the teams combined for a ridiculous 16% from three point land as they hit 8 of 50. That is not happening again here. These teams normally would have combined to hit at least 16 of the 50 and that would have put this game up to 138. I look for a high-scoring game to surprise some people here. Butler has scored 73 points in each of its last two games and the over is 5-2 in their last 7 games. Xavier is off back to back low-scoring games but this was preceded by a stretch of just 1 under in 5 games. The Musketeers scored an average of 73 points per game in those 5 games. Xavier also has allowed 78.5 points per game their last 4 games away from home. 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams have stayed under the total including both this season but, as long-time followers know, I am a contrarian. This one goes over the total as look for a tight game late with plenty of extra free throws for the team in the lead and plenty of threes fired up for the team trailing. We have seen this play out before. A lot of late scramble points if needed but truly I think we'll see a lot more scoring early and more consistently throughout this game than many expect. Much better shooting expected here. I am aware of the injury situation for both teams but feel any disruption to the playing rotation will also just lead to more confusion defensively and actually just leads to even more points here including quick points in transition too. 10* OVER the total in Xavier |
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03-10-21 | Marquette v. Georgetown +3 | 49-68 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
Big East Beast Day Game - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #626 Wednesday 8* Georgetown Hoyas (+) vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 3 ET - The Hoyas led the Golden Eagles 36 to 20 at halftime of their lone meeting this season but went on to lose that game. Suffice to say Georgetown will be very focused and ready to play the full 40 minutes here in the rematch that has come up in the Big East tournament. Marquette has won each of the last 3 meetings between these teams and the Hoyas are ready for payback in this triple revenge situation. The Eagles finished the regular season winning 4 of 5 but Georgetown also was on a 4-1 run before an ugly season ending loss to Connecticut. Coming off a 98-82 beatdown, the Hoyas look to atone for that loss here. Georgetown had covered 3 straight road games prior to that loss. The Golden Eagles won their most recent road game but entered that game having lost 4 of their last 5 Big East games played away from home. This one is a road game for each of course but I like the Hoyas as they had been playing well on the road ATS before the loss to the Huskies. They will regroup and get payback here against Marquette. The Golden Eagles are making just 30% of their three pointers on the road this season while the Hoyas are making 40% of theirs from beyond the arc. Don't be surprised if that ends up making a difference in this one and I am grabbing the points here as added insurance but do expect an outright upset. 8* GEORGETOWN |
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03-09-21 | Oakland v. Cleveland State OVER 138.5 | Top | 69-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Horizon League Total of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #824 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland State Vikings (-) vs Oakland Golden Grizzlies @ 7 ET - I understand this total in terms of being rather low because we saw some crazy results yesterday in this tourney. It is tournament time and Oakland has a great long-term reputation in the Horizon League and knocked off Northern Kentucky last night. This is the "anything can happen" time of year when you see upsets in tournament action similar to the "on any given Sunday" mantra relating to the NFL. Here is the thing about that though. Lightning usually doesn't strike twice and the Golden Grizzlies just had their "anything can happen" moment last night. Oakland beat the Norse by double digits despite Northern Kentucky taking 11 more shots from the field and despite the Golden Grizzlies being putrid - 10 of 26 - from the free throw line! Oakland was fortunate is the point I am making as the Norse made just 33% from the field for the game and also were held to 23% from beyond the arc. None of those stats are likely to be repeated again here and the Vikings are the superior team. Cleveland State is 18-7 on the season while Oakland is 12-17. The Golden Grizzlies will shoot much better from the free throw line tonight but both teams are off deceiving performances in terms of points allowed and that is why I love the over here. The Norse scored just 58 points on Oakland but took 69 shots from the field! The UW-Milwaukee Panthers scored only 65 points on Cleveland State but also took 69 shots from the field. Wisconsin-Milwaukee made just 3 of 17 three pointers so that is what held them back. So both teams off unders last night but Cleveland State entered last night's game on a stretch of just 2 unders in 10 games! As for Oakland, they are 21-7 to the over this season and yesterday's under followed a stretch of 8 straight overs. Both the Golden Grizzlies and Vikings were fortunate in terms of points allowed last night. That will not be repeated tonight. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland State |
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03-08-21 | Elon +5 v. Hofstra | Top | 76-58 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
Earliest Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #779 Monday 10* Top Play Elon Phoenix (+) vs Hofstra Pride @ 6 ET - The Pride took advantage of a Delaware team yesterday that had not played a game in 5 weeks. Even with that edge, Hofstra was nearly upset and had to pull away late. They were fortunate that the Fightin' Blue Hens lost by 8 points despite the Pride missing 12 free throws out of 29! That poor free throw shooting and the fact that Burgess and Ray played the whole game - all 40 minutes - could come back to bite Hofstra here. Elon has the lesser record on the season but keep in mind they were also priced this way in the game against James Madison yesterday and the Dukes were the #1 seed in this tournament. That said, I feel we have some solid line value here with the Phoenix. That is particularly true because Elon won yesterday's game despite shooting only 32% from inside the arc! That is right, the Phoenix made just 8 of 25 shots from 2-point land and yet still beat James Madison. It is now a 6-0 SU and ATS run for Elon entering this one. Look for that streak to reach 7-0 for the Phoenix here. I do expect an outright upset but will grab the points just in case. 10* ELON |
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03-07-21 | Texas v. TCU OVER 137 | Top | 76-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #747 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in TCU Horned Frogs vs Texas Longhorns @ 7 ET - The first meeting between these teams had a posted total of 141 and fell well under the total. So, with the odds makers again posting a 141 on the rematch, of course the betting markets treat it like some major mistake and have pounded the under early in this one. Now, at a 137 as of early game day morning, it is go time for us and we pull the trigger on the over in this one. Couple keys here. TCU shot just 36% from the field at Austin in the earlier match-up. That won't be repeated here. The Horned Frogs are shooting 45% in home games this season. Also, the Frogs are catching UT off back to back huge wins including a big rivalry victory at Oklahoma Thursday. As a result, the Longhorns level of defensive intensity in this one could absolutely be a few notches below where you would expect. That said, the Horns are scoring an average of 75 points per game this season and are unlikely to again hit just 28.6% of their threes in this one like they did in the first meeting! Also, Texas Christian University is averaging 70 points per game on their home floor this season and UT scored 70 points in the first meeting despite the rough shooting from beyond the arc. You can see why I am expecting this game to get to at least the mid-140s. By the way, Texas is off an under but has not recorded unders in back to back games in 2 months. 10* OVER the total in TCU |
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03-07-21 | Texas Tech +8 v. Baylor | Top | 73-88 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #741 Sunday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) @ Baylor Bears @ 4 ET - The Bears check the box on a number of things here that make it hard for me to imagine them winning this game by much of a margin. They already have a loss this season so it is not like they are motivated by going for an undefeated record. Baylor also already won at Texas Tech this season so there is no revenge angle in play here for the Bears. Also, they already locked up the Big 12 title. With all of the above factored in, look for the Red Raiders to prove to be the team that wants this one a little more! Of course that does not mean they will win this game outright but I do expect Texas Tech to put up a helluva fight and for this game to likely be decided by a final margin of just a bucket or two. The Red Raiders last 7 losses have featured 6 by a margin of 8 or less points and 2 of those defeats were in overtime. In fact, other than the 8 point loss to Baylor, the other 5 of those tight losses were decided by an average margin of just 3.6 points. Look for another tight one here as the Red Raiders are back on track and playing as a confident bunch as they enter this game on a 3-0 run with an average margin of victory of 18.7 points per game. 10* TEXAS TECH |
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03-07-21 | Delaware v. Hofstra OVER 138.5 | 75-83 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
Earliest Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #751 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Hofstra Pride vs Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens @ 11 AM ET - Delaware hasn't played in 5 weeks as their last game was on the final day of January. Hofstra hasn't played in 3 weeks as their last game was on Valentine's Day! In the strange covid-impacted schedule for college basketball this season we have seen similar scenarios like this and I have used the over in these spots. Many people worry about cold shooting after a layoff but what actually happens in situations like this that is more of a factor is that teams tend to struggle in other facets of the game that help a total go over. There tends to be more turnovers that lead to easy buckets and better looks in transition. There tends to be missed defensive assignments as teams do not rotate properly or end up not switching on players when they should, etc. It all adds up to better looks at the basket and more scoring opportunities and I will ride that theory again here in this unique conference tournament situation. Hofstra is averaging 77 points per game during a 6-3 run entering this game. However, the Pride also have allowed 77 points per game their last 7 games. You can see from those numbers that we should get the kind of pace to this game with Delaware to have this one fly over the total. As for the Fightin' Blue Hens, they have averaged 70 points per game their last 6 games. Look for both teams to reach the 70 point mark in this one. 8* OVER the total in Hofstra |
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03-06-21 | Butler v. Creighton OVER 134 | Top | 73-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
Big East Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #643 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Creighton Bluejays vs Butler Bulldogs @ 5 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the Bulldogs have not scored well on the road this season. However, I love the set up here and the corresponding line value. Butler is likely to shoot more and score better than you would expect here because they are off back to back upset wins over Seton Hall and Villanova. Facing a Bluejays team not known for defense (allowing 68 ppg at home) the Bulldogs will score enough here for us. The big key to the play though is a Creighton team known for huge games on the offensive end at home and that enters this game off back to back road losses at Xavier and Villanova. Now the Bluejays are back home where they are averaging 83 points per game this season. They are about a 13 point favorite here so if the odds makers are right about the spread and the Jays hit their average you are talking about an 83-70 type game. Now Butler is averaging only 60 points per game on the road so that would put this at a 73-60 type game. The reality? I am expecting more than that from each team based on the factors noted above and it should at least finish in between these projected totals and that would be 143 points. That is still a comfortable win for us and shows solid margin with this play. I expect the Bluejays to force a fast tempo in this one at home. 10* OVER the total in Creighton |
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03-06-21 | Pittsburgh +8 v. Clemson | 62-77 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 12 m | Show | |
Earliest Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #603 Saturday 8* Pittsburgh Panthers (+) @ Clemson Tigers @ Noon ET - The Panthers are off a win but this followed a lengthy losing streak. Here is the key though. Pittsburgh's 5-game losing streak featured all 5 losses coming by 7 or less points. Pitt is a very strong rebounding team and is not an easy team to blow out. Also, on the road, they are allowing just 41.6% from the field to their opponents. I know Clemson is a very solid team, particularly at home, but I do not see them winning big in this game. The Tigers are going to have their hands full with a scrappy dog that hits the boards hard and plays tough defense more often than not when traveling. Also, when these teams met last season the Panthers lost by 20 points and that was on their home floor! Pitt shot very poorly in that one from 3-point land while Clemson shot lights out from beyond the arc. That kind of ridiculous disparity will not happen again here. Grab the generous points being offered to a scrappy underdog in this one. 8* PITTSBURGH |
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03-05-21 | Georgia Tech v. Wake Forest +9 | Top | 75-63 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #840 Friday 10* Top Play Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+) vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 8 ET - Of course it has been a disappointing finish to the regular season for Wake Forest. However, the Demon Deacons are not going to lay down here in their home finale. That said, this is simply too many points in my opinion. Georgia Tech is only 3-5 in road games this season while Wake Forest is 5-5 in home games. Also, the Yellow Jackets are off a huge home win versus Duke. Not sure how excited the Jackets are going to be about this game as a result. That said, the Demon Deacons are likely to prove to be the hungrier team and they lost the first match-up with Georgia Tech this season largely due a big disparity in 3-point shooting as they had a horrific shooting night. However, Wake Forest is hitting 34% from beyond the arc this season and Georgia Tech is shooting 35% from beyond the arc this season. In other words, and particularly with this rematch being at Winston-Salem, the Yellow Jackets are unlikely to hold such an edge from 3-point land in this one. Look for this one to go down to the wire as the Demon Deacons are a very hungry home dog here and I just do not see them losing this game by double digits on their home floor. 10* WAKE FOREST |
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03-05-21 | Duquesne v. St Bonaventure OVER 130 | Top | 59-75 | Win | 100 | 3 h 51 m | Show |
Earliest Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #859 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Bonaventure Bonnies vs Duquesne Dukes @ 11 AM ET - Long-time followers know I like contrarian plays. This total certainly fits the bill in that regard. Duquesne got a low-scoring win over Richmond yesterday to advance to this game. That one stayed under the total. St Bonaventure also is off a low-scoring game and it was a very ugly 55-52 loss to Dayton. That is going to bring out the best in the Bonnies here. Keep in mind the two regular season meetings between these teams averaged just 118 points totaled per game yet the odds makers opened this up at 131. Of course the total dropped from its opener. In typical contrarian fashion, I am going against the markets here. Note that the Bonnies entered their game against the Flyers off an 88-point outburst. Also note that Duquesne has averaged scoring 76 points per game their last 7 games. 10* OVER the total in St Bonaventure |
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03-04-21 | George Washington v. George Mason OVER 134 | Top | 59-73 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
A-10 Tourney TV Top - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #765 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in George Mason Patriots vs George Washington Colonials @ 5:30 ET - We are getting line value here as these teams just met and the total was posted in the low 140s and yet now we have a total in the mid-130s. The last meeting stayed under the total but that is because George Mason shot only 30.6% from the field! The Patriots dominated the offensive glass in that game and took 72 shots for the game but simply had "one of those nights" which is, of course, giving us line value here. The pace should again be there for an over but this time the teams should cash them in! George Mason's other 3 recent games have seen them score at least 77 points and actually average 82 points in those 3. I know George Washington has not scored well other than their first back in mid-February after a long layoff but the Colonials have averaged scoring 68 points per game in their last 3 meetings with the Patriots and they are an 8 point dog here. 76-68 sounds about right to me and that puts this game 10 points above the current total. I'll take it. 10* OVER the total in George Mason |
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03-03-21 | Connecticut -120 v. Seton Hall | Top | 69-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #669 Wednesday 10* Top Play Connecticut Huskies (-) @ Seton Hall Pirates @ 6:30 ET - The set up here is perfect. The Huskies are on the road so we get line value. Connecticut is playing with revenge for a home loss to the Pirates last month. Also, the Huskies now have leading scorer James Bouknight back and they did not have him for the first game versus Seton Hall. Since Bouknight has returned to the lineup UConn has lost only once and that was to Villanova, the top team in the Big East. As for Seton Hall, they enter this game struggling badly as they have lost back to back games including an ugly loss at Butler. The Bulldogs are not a very good team and the Pirates lost to them by 9 as an 8 point favorite! Overall, Seton Hall is on an 0-4 ATS run while the Huskies enter this game on a 4-1 SU and ATS run which includes 3 of 4 since Bouknight returned with the only loss being at the hands of a very strong Villanova team as noted above. Bouknight is definitely the star of the Huskies and they are 8-2 SU in the games he has played in this season with the only other loss being a 2-point loss in OT versus Creighton when the Bluejays were ranked 9th in the nation! Bouknight has been on the floor for only 2 Big East losses this season and those came against the two best teams in the conference. Seton Hall certainly does not fall into that category and I look for the Huskies to roll to a road rout in this one behind another huge game from Bouknight as they get their revenge. 10* CONNECTICUT |
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03-02-21 | Xavier v. Georgetown +2 | Top | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Big East Beast - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #618 Tuesday 10* Top Play Georgetown Hoyas (+) vs Xavier Musketeers @ 7 ET - Georgetown leading scorer Jahvon Blair will be back for senior night in Washington DC tonight. The Hoyas still managed to get by without him at DePaul on Saturday afternoon. Georgetown now faces a much tougher challenge then they did with the Blue Demons but I don't see the Hoyas being denied in their home finale. Georgetown should hold a rebounding edge here and the Musketeers are not quite the same team without guard Nate Johnson. I know they just upset the Bluejays but that makes me like going against Xavier even more here as they could be a little flat after upsetting Creighton. That was the Musketeers home finale and now they face a team highly motivated to win their home finale as well. Keep in mind, Xavier was on an 0-4 ATS run prior to knocking off the Bluejays. Also, the Hoyas enter this game on a solid 6-2 ATS run at the betting window. With the early line move toward Xavier, I like this one even more. Grab the home dog in this one as they have gone from being a slight favorite to now being the underdog in this one. Traditionally going against moves like this works out very well and I love this spot for all the reasons noted above too. 10* GEORGETOWN |
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03-01-21 | Dayton v. St Bonaventure OVER 132.5 | Top | 55-52 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #829 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Bonaventure Bonnies vs Dayton Flyers @ 5 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the Bonnies have trended under recently as well as truly being an "under team" for the season. However, this total is far too low considering the opponent. Dayton is averaging 72 points per game on the road this season. The reason St Bonaventure has trended under this season is solid defense but they won't be able to totally shutdown this Flyers team that has some skilled scoring options. At the same time, the Bonnies are averaging 77 points per game on their home floor this season. Again, the under trend has certainly not been because St Bonaventure can't score well because they truly do score very well as a host. The Bonnies enter this game off an 88-point outburst versus George Washington and they have now averaged 82 points per game their last 4 home games. Dayton did have a recent 2-OT game on the road but even removing those points from the equation, the Flyers have averaged 73 points per game their last 4 road games. However, not including OT points, Dayton has also surrendered 76.5 points per game their last 4 road games. Their defensive play has been much better at home than on the road this season. The Flyers almost always get to the mid-60s in points scored and the Bonnies are favored by 7.5 points here for good reason. That said, I certainly see this total getting to at least the 140 mark and the 150 range would not be a total shock either given all of the above. 10* OVER the total in St Bonaventure |
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02-28-21 | Villanova v. Butler OVER 129.5 | Top | 61-73 | Win | 100 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
Big East Beast - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #791 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Butler Bulldogs vs Villanova Wildcats @ Noon ET - The Wildcats have a much tougher game with Creighton on deck. Will their defensive focus be a little distracted here as a result? I absolutely believe that will prove to be the case here and, at the same time, Butler is off a tremendous effort on the defensive end that certainly will not be repeated here. The Bulldogs just held Seton Hall to 52 points but the Pirates are definitely not in the same class as these Wildcats. Also, the last 3 meetings between these teams each went over the total and the last 2 averaged 153 points per game! We have got a low total to work with here when you consider that Villanova is averaging 78 points per game this season. Yes, Butler is averaging only 65 points per game at home this season but the Wildcats are a double digit favorite for a reason. In other words could we see a 75-65 type game here? Absolutely! The Wildcats lost their last visit to Hinkle Fieldhouse so they won't take their foot off the gas in this one as they have been reminded of that defeat heading into this one. 10* OVER the total in Butler |
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02-27-21 | Creighton v. Xavier +5 | Top | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Big East Beast Top Side - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #684 Saturday 10* Top Play Xavier Musketeers (+) vs Creighton Bluejays @ 5 ET - Without a shadow of doubt, of course, Creighton is a very good team. Also, Xavier looks very unimpressive to the betting markets because of a recent 1-3 run. However, all that has done here is create exceptional value in my opinion. Keep in mind, the Musketeers had an unwanted two weeks off due to health protocol impacting their schedule so one could give them a mulligan for the home loss to Connecticut which followed. Since then Xavier has had two tough road games and just one home game. They won the only home game and the Musketeers are now 10-2 at home this season. Again, I know the Bluejays command (and deserve) respect but prior to a road win and cover at Georgetown in their most recent away game, Creighton was on a 1-3 ATS run in road games. This is Xavier's home finale and you know they would love nothing more than to get revenge for their road loss at Creighton earlier this season plus close the home portion of their schedule with a big win. As you would expect, the Bluejays don't shoot as well nor score as well on the road as they do at home. As you would also expect, the Musketeers do shoot better at home plus score better as a host. They have a great shot at the upset here which certainly has me liking the added value of having these points on our side too. 10* XAVIER |
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02-27-21 | Marquette v. Connecticut OVER 135 | Top | 62-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
Big East Beast Top Total - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #645 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Connecticut Huskies vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 2:30 ET - The first meeting between these teams stayed well under the total but look for the second one to play out much differently. Both teams enter off wins. Also, the Golden Eagles are now 3-1 to the over in their last 4 road games while the Huskies are 3-1 to the over in their last 4 home games. Additionally, Connecticut now has James Bouknight back and he is a big scorer for him. Marquette is averaging 70.8 points per game on the road and UConn is averaging 75.7 points per game at home. Don't be surprised when this game gets into the mid-140s. The Huskies are off back to back unders but those games were on the road and that stretch was preceded by a run of 6-1 to the over. That run resumes for them starting today at home. 10* OVER the total in Connecticut |
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02-27-21 | Georgetown v. DePaul +3 | 68-60 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
Big East Beast Early - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #610 Saturday 8* DePaul Blue Demons (+) vs Georgetown Hoyas @ Noon ET - The Blue Demons might get Javon Freeman-Liberty back for this one. He has been in concussion protocol but this began exactly two weeks ago so today could be the day for him at home and in the most winnable game remaining on DePaul's schedule. Even if he does not play here, I like the fact this line has gone from a pick'em to a -3 on Georgetown. Yes the Blue Demons are at the bottom of the Big East but the Hoyas are not dominators, particularly on the road, by any stretch of the imagination. That said, taking a look at DePaul's last 6 home games, 1 was a high-scoring loss but in the other 5 games they allowed an average of only 61.2 points per game! This team does show some commitment on the defensive end. As for Georgetown, they allowed an average of 72.5 points per game in their last two games and those were at home and they got dominated on the glass by UConn in the most recent of those two games. Also, the Hoyas have allowed an average of 79 points per game in their last 3 road games. Don't be surprised when the Blue Demons prove to be the hungrier team in this one and get the job done on their home floor. 8* DEPAUL |
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02-26-21 | Drexel v. James Madison OVER 143 | Top | 84-78 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #821 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in James Madison Dukes vs Drexel Dragons @ 4 ET - Something going on here when you look at this total. It has been creeping up higher from its opener even though these teams totaled only 137 points when they met last month and that was the 5th straight under in this series. Also, James Madison's Matt Lewis is listed as questionable with a knee injury and yet still the total went higher. Part of the reason in my opinion is that both of these teams are coming off long layoffs. Drexel's is nearly 3 weeks and the Dukes is nearly 2 weeks. When teams have time off like this without games they tend to come out a little rusty and miss assignments on defense, don't switch properly in terms of defensive play, turn the ball over too often leading to quick transition points the other way. All those factors can lead to higher scoring games and are more common this season when two teams come into a game after long layoffs. So my opinion is that some sharp action is starting to come in on this total and it was already one that was on my radar for today. The Dukes have won 7 straight games and are favored to win this game at home for a reason. Note that James Madison has scored an average of 82 points per game in their last 11 wins! The Dragons have scored 73 points or more in 3 of their last 4 road games and will be in this game all the way. Getting this one to the 150 range can be expected as Drexel is hitting 48.6% from the field in road games this season and the Dukes are averaging 81.2 points per game at home this season. 10* OVER the total in James Madison |
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02-25-21 | Iowa +5.5 v. Michigan | Top | 57-79 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #737 Thursday 10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes (+) @ Michigan Wolverines @ 7:30 ET - The #3 team in the nation at home where they are 11-0 this season and facing a team that is only 5-4 this season when away from home and yet this one featured a 3.5 as an opening line. The odds makers had the right idea and yet the market place things they have it all wrong and have already pushed this line to as high a 5.5 in some spots. In typical contrarian fashion I am on the other side of the move but, as always, it is not without reason. The Hawkeyes are 5-2 SU in their last 7 road games and the two losses each came by 5 or less points. That said, I love the line value here as Michigan is off of 3 straight hard fought wins and is going to be really tested now by a dynamic Iowa offense that is averaging 80 points per game its last 4 games. The Wolverines are off a high-scoring win over Ohio State but had averaged only 69 points per game in their 3 preceding games. Allowing 87 points to the Buckeyes also has to be a concern for Michigan as they now take on the highest scoring team in the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes also have far and away the best assist to turnover ratio in the conference plus they lead the Big Ten in rebounding. Grab the generous points here. 10* IOWA |
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02-24-21 | Seton Hall v. Butler +7.5 | Top | 52-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Big East Beast - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #684 Wednesday 10* Top Play Butler Bulldogs (+) vs Seton Hall Pirates @ 7 ET - This line is not up everywhere right now and that is because of the questionable status of three senior starters for Butler. The Bulldogs have Bo Hodges, Bryce Nze, and Aaron Thompson all listed as questionable for this one. My take on this is I don't see these guys again all missing another game. Maybe not all 3 play but I would be surprised if at least 2 of the 3 are not seeing action in this game tonight. Why? Well they are seniors and even though they have two more regular season games left this is definitely the most winnable game on their schedule that remains. Their next two games are versus Villanova and at Creighton. Yikes! By the way, even without all 3 of those aforementioned starters, the Bulldogs were down by only 5 points with a minute and a half to go in their 12 point loss to the Musketeers Sunday. Now they are at home and a big dog and could have some starting firepower back for this one and note that Seton Hall is 13-9 this season while Xavier is 12-4. The Pirates are certainly solid and have gone 10-6 in Big East action but the Musketeers are no slouches it is just their Big East schedule has been heavily impacted by covid. There is simply tremendous value with the home dog in this match-up and I suspect this line will steadily come down as the day goes on so lets jump on the early value here in a game the Bulldogs will be gunning hard for the upset win. It truly is their most winnable game left on the schedule and historically they are a tough team at Hinkle Fieldhouse. 10* BUTLER |
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02-23-21 | St. John's v. Villanova -11 | Top | 58-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Big East Beast - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #628 Tuesday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs St John's Red Storm @ 8 ET - Randomly playing revenge situations will get you in trouble in no time but finding the right revenge spots can be pure gold. The best teams in the Big East this season are Villanova and Creighton. The Wildcats lost by double digits at St John's earlier this season and now it is payback time. Why should we expect a solid home win for Villanova here? Well the best sample size to look at is how the Red Storm performed against the Bluejays this season. St John's has already faced Creighton twice and lost each game by an 18 point margin. Villanova can do the same here and this line is down to an 11 as of early game day morning. I'll take it. The Wildcats will take advantage of a Red Storm team that has allowed 86 points per game in its last two games. Villanova is a very strong shooting team at home. Also, the Wildcats are allowing just 66 points per game as a host this season. Coincidentally the posted total on this game is 152.5 and 86-66 indeed sounds about right and the expectation of that final score is justified per the above. The point is you can see why I am expecting the Cats to win this one by about 18 to 20 points. 10* VILLANOVA |
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02-22-21 | NC-Greensboro v. Western Carolina OVER 141 | Top | 77-56 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #845 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Western Carolina Catamounts vs UNC Greensboro Spartans @ 5 ET - Top team in conference standings visiting the worst team. The best comparison we have for this and, by the way, UNC Greensboro does still need to win games to lock up the top spot, is when the Spartans recently faced Samford. The Bulldogs are having a very rough season just like the Catamounts are and Greensboro blasted them in each game and both totaled at least 150 points. Note that Western Carolina enters this game having allowed 79.1 points per game their last 10 games and that does not include the OT period in their loss at Chattanooga. That said, plenty of points expected here as the Spartans enter this game off a very rare poor shooting game that resulted in a tight, low-scoring 60-55 home win. On the road, UNC Greensboro has scored at least 71 points in 10 of 11 games. In fact, the Spartans have averaged 80.3 points per game in those 10 games. This game has the makings of an 80 to 70 type affair and UNC Greensboro highly motivated after losing their most recent road game plus coming off a dismal home effort that result in a win that did not even feel like a win. The Spartans now cut loose in this one and force the Catamounts to run and gun. 10* OVER the total in Western Carolina |
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02-22-21 | North Alabama v. Liberty OVER 132.5 | 54-74 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #307219 Monday 8* OVER the total in Liberty Flames vs North Alabama Lions @ Noon ET - This total opened up in the mid 130s and then dropped back to nearly the 130 mark but is creeping back up this morning as expected. The fact is that North Alabama has allowed 79 points per game their last 4 road games. Also, the Lions are off back to back losses to a Bellarmine team that is very similar in strength to the Liberty team they are now facing. Even though North Alabama was home for those games, they allowed 76.5 points per game. Now they are on the road and expected to get blasted as the spread on this game is now up around -14. Considering that as well as the fact that the Lions have scored at least 60 points in 14 straight games, you can see why I am expecting this game to get to at least the mid-130s. Even if North Alabama has one of their worst scoring games of the season they should still get into the 60s and that should put this total close to the 140 mark at a bare minimum. The Flames sometimes play some lower scoring games but those tend to be on the road. Liberty, when at home, has scored 69 points or more in all 11 and averaged 84.4 points per game on the season as a host. The Flames are 11-0 at home for good reason and they win huge again here and that helps to insure this game flies over the total. 8* OVER the total in Liberty |
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02-21-21 | Butler v. Xavier -8 | 51-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
Big East Beast - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #828 Sunday 8* Xavier Musketeers (-) vs Butler Bulldogs @ 7 ET - The Musketeers are off back to back losses but that was preceded by a 13-point win at Butler that brought Xavier to 11-2 on the season. Now the Musketeers are hosting the Bulldogs and in a foul mood and, as a result, this match-up has blowout written all over it. Butler is off back to back losses and is now 1-8 SU (and 2-7 ATS) on the season in road games. Overall, 6 of the Bulldogs last 7 losses have come by at least a dozen points and I am expecting this one will as well. The Musketeers suffered a 1 point loss when they hosted Butler last season so they won't overlook this team nor will they take their foot off the gas. Blowout city in this one! 8* XAVIER |
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02-21-21 | Rhode Island v. George Washington OVER 139.5 | Top | 70-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #793 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in George Washington Colonials vs Rhode Island Rams @ 11:30 AM ET - When a team hasn't played a game in 5 weeks they are going to come out sloppy, there will be turnovers, there will be missed switches on defense, and the result will be opportunities for a lot of points in transition. This total first opened up at a 143 and has since dropped to a 139.5 as of the night before this early game for Sunday. I like the value after the line move here. Don't be surprised if this game turns into a bit of a run and gun affair because the Rams will look to run the Colonials right out of their own building. That is why Rhode Island is a big favorite here and they will certainly not show any mercy nor take their foot off the gas. The Rams have scored at least 80 points in each of their last two meetings with George Washington. The Colonials enter this game allowing 75 points at home this season. Rhode Island enters this game allowing 72 points per game on the road this season. The Rams allow 60 shot attempts per game on the season and GW is allowing 62 shots per game when a host this season. In other words, this game will have a better pace than you might expect and it will have a bit more run and gun too as George Washington can't afford to sit back and constantly get into half-court sets. First game after 5 weeks off is going to see a lot more of just pure talent trying to take over and score the ball quickly. 10* OVER the total in George Washington |
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02-20-21 | Texas Tech +1.5 v. Kansas | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #639 Saturday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) @ Kansas Jayhawks @ 2 ET - The Red Raiders have had a layoff due to a combination of weather and covid issues forcing postponements. That can, of course, be detrimental to a team. However, Texas Tech is not a normal team as they are one of the best teams in the nation and they are also fighting mad here. Their most recent game left the players and the coach fuming and they have been waiting a long time to get back on the floor and they will make the most of this opportunity today. The Red Raiders also have lost 3 games against Kansas including the most recent one by a single point in December. That said, Texas Tech is hell bent on revenge here and I am well aware of the fact that the Jayhawks have been playing better and winning some games. The key here though is who they faced. Now Kansas is in more of a dog fight style of game here and the last 5 times they have played a game with a spread either way that was 5 or less points, they have gone 0-5 SU and ATS. The Jayhawks simply aren't the same team they used to be and they already got blasted at Allen Fieldhouse earlier this season. I am not saying Kansas will get blasted here but I am saying the Red Raiders get the road win. Payback time here. 10* TEXAS TECH |
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02-20-21 | Connecticut v. Villanova -6.5 | 60-68 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Big East Beast - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #614 Saturday 8* Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Connecticut Huskies @ 1 ET - The Huskies got their star player, James Bouknight back in their most recent game and that is keeping this line lower. I know Connecticut is a respectable team, especially with Bouknight back healthy again. However, the Wildcats are off just their 3rd loss of the season and will be ready to respond here just like they did after their first two losses. Keep in mind, Villanova entered that game with a 13-2 record on the season. The Huskies have lost 2 of last 3 road games and each defeat came by at least 8 points. The Wildcats two wins when off a loss this season each came by double digits and had an average margin of victory of 22 points per game. 11 of Villanova's 13 wins have come by a margin of at least 8 points and this one will too. UConn is on a 3-4 SU and ATS run and each of their last 3 losses have come by at least 7 points. With the spread on this one sitting right around a half-dozen points, we have solid value with a home team angry off a loss. 8* VILLANOVA |
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02-19-21 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Youngstown State OVER 150.5 | Top | 72-70 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
Horizon League Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #825 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Youngstown State Penguins vs IUPUI Jaguars @ 5 ET - Both of these teams struggle defensively. IUPUI is allowing 75 points per game and 49% shooting when on the road. Youngstown State allowing 46% shooting on the season including 35% from three point land. The threes should be flying for the road team in this one as the Jaguars are hitting 39% of their 3-pointers in road games this season! The over is 5-0 in the Jags last 5 games and on an overall 7-1 run their last 8 games. I don't see that slowing down here. The Penguins are off an under at home but that was preceded by just 2 of their 7 preceding home games staying under the total. The Pens last 4 lined home games have seen them average 75.8 points per game. IUPUI has averaged scoring 81 points per game their last 5 games and, again, all 5 of those went over the total. Last season's meetings between these teams both flew over the total and averaged 161.5 points per game. This one will likely get into that range as well. Look for another high-scoring shootout here. 10* OVER the total in Youngstown State |
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02-18-21 | Iowa v. Wisconsin OVER 144.5 | Top | 77-62 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #739 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Wisconsin Badgers vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ 7 ET - The Badgers are known for low-scoring games generally speaking but the Hawkeyes are at the other end of the spectrum for sure. That said, and with this total dropping from the upper 140s to the mid 140s, I like the value with the over in this one. These teams have trended under in recent meetings but 3-point shooting has had a lot do with it. For example, in their most recent meeting they totaled 130 points but had they made a normal percentage of the threes they took in that game it would have totaled 151 points. Iowa enters this game having averaged 87.4 points per game and knocking down 39.6% of three pointers on the season. Wisconsin enters this game with some respectable numbers on offense in home games as they have averaged 73.5 points per game and knocked down 40.3% of three pointers as a host this season. Poor shooting both inside and outside the arc is why their most recent meeting totaled just 130 but don't be surprised if this one makes up for that. The Hawkeyes have averaged 82.6 points per game their last 5 road games and are off a huge performance at Michigan State. The Badgers are off an ugly home performance versus Michigan but will make up for that here and did average 70.6 points per game in last 5 home games prior to facing the Wolverines. Look for the Badgers to take advantage of a Hawkeyes defense allowing 77.6 points per game as travelers this season. 10* OVER the total in Wisconsin |
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02-17-21 | Marquette v. Butler -2 | Top | 73-57 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Big East Beast - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #672 Wednesday 10* Butler Bulldogs (-) vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 6:30 ET - The Bulldogs lost by 3 at Marquette two weeks ago but couple of important notes about that. One is that this is the only win that the Golden Eagles have had in their last 7 games! Another is that when you look at the box score for that game it is somewhat of a miracle that Marquette even won that game. The Golden Eagles took only 39 shots from the field but hit 61% of them. That high shooting percentage will most definitely not be repeated on the road. Also, the Bulldogs had just 9 turnovers in the game while Marquette had 22. Again, bit of a miracle that the Golden Eagles somehow held on to win that game. Now it is payback time and I like the fact that Butler is at home for this one. The Bulldogs have won 6 of 9 home games this season while Marquette is just 2-6 ATS in road games on the season. Butler has won 3 of its last 4 home games and that included knocking off Creighton when the Bluejays were ranked #8 in the nation. They can play with anyone here at Hinkle Fieldhouse and I expect a solid home win here after they arguably deserved much better in the first meeting in Milwaukee a few weeks ago. 10* BUTLER |
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02-16-21 | Providence v. Connecticut -5.5 | Top | 61-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
Big East Beast - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #608 Tuesday 10* Top Play Connecticut Huskies (-) vs Providence Friars @ 6:30 ET - The Huskies seek revenge for a loss by a double digit margin at Providence last week. Connecticut actually had 9 more shots from the field but the Friars had 18 more free throw attempts. That latter statistic will not be repeated here at Harry A. Gampel Pavilion in Storrs, CT. Also note that Connecticut's James Bouknight is very close to returning from his elbow injury. The Friars are off a road win but entered that game having lost 4 of last 5 away from home. Huskies are averaging 76 points per game at home this season while Providence has been held to an average of 62 points per game in last 3 road games. The revenge-minded home team gets a boost with the imminent return of Bouknight even if he is yet on the floor this evening. There is a mental aspect to this as well that their star's return is imminent. 10* CONNECTICUT |
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02-15-21 | Virginia v. Florida State UNDER 130 | Top | 60-81 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #844 Monday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Florida State Seminoles vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 7 ET - Big game involving top two teams in the ACC. I am well aware of the fact that the Seminoles are on an over streak but the Cavaliers are going to dictate that this game will be an ugly grinder. It is just the way Virginia games are and, especially in a big one like this, I do not see the Cavs allowing there to be any tempo in this game. The Cavaliers are so good at dictating tempo and forcing a slow pace. Virginia's last 5 games have resulted in 4 unders and those games have averaged just 112.7 points per game. We are getting extra value with this total posted in the 130 range because of the Seminoles long-term scoring process. However, do not overlook the Noles defensive play! FSU is off a high-scoring OT win versus Wake Forest but that was an usual situation for them Saturday as it was their first game in over two weeks. Prior to the shootout with WF, the Seminoles 10 prior wins saw them allow just 64.4 points per game. Now ratchet that down many notches because of playing slow-paced Virginia and you can see why I would not be surprised to see this game fall into the 115 to 120 range for total points. 10* UNDER the total in Florida State |
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02-14-21 | Marquette +7.5 v. Seton Hall | Top | 51-57 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
Big East Beast - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #803 Sunday 10* Top Play Marquette Golden Eagles (+) @ Seton Hall Pirates @ 3 ET - The Golden Eagles will be ready to bounce back after an embarrassing blowout loss at Villanova by a 32-point margin. That was their first really bad loss of the new year as in 2021 the average margin of defeat had been 6.4 points per game. That said, and considering they are in a good spot, Marquette is offering significant line value here after opening up at about an 8 point dog. The Pirates are in the perfect spot to struggle as they are off back to back wins on the road as a very small favorite. Now Seton Hall has not played in over a week while Marquette played on Wednesday. After that blowout loss to the Wildcats, the Golden Eagles will be ready to respond here as they look for some revenge against the Pirates. Seton Hall has actually won 5 straight games against Marquette so payback is on order here. Look for the Pirates to fall to 0-3 ATS in their last 3 home games as they have lost back to back games both SU and ATS and the Golden Eagles challenge them all the way after getting embarrassed on Wednesday. 10* MARQUETTE |
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02-13-21 | Villanova v. Creighton OVER 143.5 | Top | 70-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #693 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Creighton Bluejays vs Villanova Wildcats @ 5 ET - Villanova's defensive numbers haven't been nearly as strong as in recent seasons. The Wildcats are allowing opponents to hit 45.5% from the field including 37.2% from three point land. Creighton loves to fire up 3-balls, particularly when at home, and the Bluejays are hitting 50% from the field including 37% from beyond the arc in their home games this season. Creighton is averaging 83 points per game this season when at home but Villanova is winning a ton of games again this season thanks to very consistent scoring. The Wildcats are scoring an average of 79 points per game this season. The over is 7-4 in Bluejays home games this season and 6-3 in Villanova's conference games this season. Look for these trends to continue here as I expect both teams to get into the 70s in this one. The Cats have been into the 70s in all but 2 of their 15 games this season. The Jays have scored at least 70 in 9 of their last 10 home games. 10* OVER the total in Creighton |
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02-13-21 | Butler v. Georgetown -1 | 63-78 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show | |
Big East Best - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #630 Saturday 8* Georgetown Hoyas (-) vs Butler Bulldogs @ 1:30 ET - Georgetown is off an ugly home loss to Creighton in which they suffered from very cold shooting and scored just 48 points. However, in their 3 prior games heading into that one, the Hoyas scored an average of 77.7 points per game. Georgetown, after beating Providence, then faced ranked teams in 3 straight games. The Hoyas are off back to back losses but now will take advantage of a stepdown in level of competition here. Georgetown is hosting a Butler team that is off back to back wins but the most recent one was a fortunate one as they were getting hammered by St John's but then rallied in the 2nd half, tied it with just a few seconds left, and then won by 3 in overtime. Also, the Bulldogs have not won 3 straight games this entire season and I do not expect that to change here as their 2-game winning streak comes to an end. Also, Butler did beat Georgetown by 8 points earlier this season but the Bulldogs are just 1-7 SU on the road this season. Grab the Hoyas in this one. 8* GEORGETOWN |
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02-12-21 | Temple +6.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 69-71 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #897 Friday 10* Top Plays Temple Owls (+) @ Cincinnati Bearcats @ 7 ET - The last 4 games between these teams have been decided by an average of just 3.8 points and now the Owls are a 6.5 dog in this one and it is a revenge spot. Temple lost at home against Cincinnati a week ago. The Owls enter this one off 3 straight losses but they got the big dog cover with a strong effort at Wichita State on Sunday. Temple is now on a 3-0 ATS run in road games and I look for the Owls to continue that strong run as travelers here. Though the Bearcats got the cover at Temple a week ago, Cincinnati is 2-9 ATS in their other games this season and I feel they are over-valued in this one. Opponents are actually shooting 47.5% against the Bearcats in their home games this season while the Owls are holding opponents to 40.9% in their road games this season. I am grabbing the hungry, undervalued dog in this one. 10* TEMPLE |
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02-11-21 | Purdue +2.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #737 Thursday 10* Top Play Purdue Boilermakers (+) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 5 ET - Early line movement toward Minnesota already and I understand that because of the revenge angle. However, there is a match-up issue here. The Boilermakers outrebounded the Golden Gophers by 17 in the first meeting and it was not entirely a fluke. Minnesota has been outrebounded by a margin of 2 boards per game this season while Purdue is outrebounding opponents by 7 boards a game on the season. Comparing these two teams' stats on the season, the Boilermakers are also the better shooting team. Purdue has won 6 of 8 games entering this one while Minnesota is off a win but that was preceded by 6 losses in 8 games. The Boilermakers also have a rest edge here having not played since the 6th while the Gophers just played on the 8th. Minnesota has a great home record this season but the odds maker set this line very low with good reason. Don't let the number scare you away. Look for the road team to roll in this one. 10* PURDUE |
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02-10-21 | Connecticut v. Providence +1.5 | Top | 59-70 | Win | 100 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
Big East Beast - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #644 Wednesday 10* Top Play Providence Friars (+) vs Connecticut Huskies @ 4 ET - The Huskies are a different team without leading scorer James Bouknight and he is out indefinitely with an elbow injury. Connecticut is now on a 1-3 SU/ATS run without him. As for Providence, reinforcements are very near to returning as both Jared Bynum and Jimmy Nichols are nearing returns. So when someone casually looks at this game, they see an 8-4 team laying just 1.5 points at a 9-10 team. However, as you can see, there is absolutely a reason this game is priced this way so do not be fooled by the 4-win team in this range. The Friars are off a home loss in which they allowed 92 points and they will be ready to respond big here and improve to 5-0 this season when off a game in which they allowed 79 or more points. Another disadvantage for UConn here is this is just their 2nd game in the past 2 weeks. The home team in a much better spot here from a situational and personnel perspective. 10* PROVIDENCE |
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02-09-21 | St. John's +2.5 v. Butler | Top | 73-76 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
Big East Beast - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #631 Tuesday 10* Top Play St John's Red Storm (+) @ Butler Bulldogs @ 9 ET - The Red Storm are red hot entering this game on a 6-0 SU run and 8-0 ATS run. St John's next game after this is not for a full week. That said, the Red Storm can absolutely lay it all on the line here with a strong aggressive effort. Speaking of aggressive play, that is the reason St John's is averaging twice as many (10) steals per game as Butler is (5) this season. Turnovers were a key in the first meeting between these teams and that was a Red Storm home win by double digits. Now in this second meeting, because Butler is at home, the host is a popular choice. The line opened up with St John's -1.5 but has flipped and is now up to a -2.5 on the Bulldogs! Love the added value here with the road dog. Butler enters this game off a home win versus DePaul but this was preceded by a stretch that saw the Bulldogs go 3-7 over 10 games. Butler is simply not as strong this season and the Red Storm are surging. Not only do they do a better job in terms of steals and blocked shots, St John's also has been the better shooting team this season across all categories - from the field, free throws, and three pointers. Grab the road dog Red Storm here plus the points but expect an outright win. 10* ST JOHN'S |
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02-08-21 | SMU v. East Carolina OVER 139 | Top | 71-56 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #845 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in East Carolina Pirates vs SMU Mustangs @ 5 ET - Don't be fooled by the total here. The game between odds makers and the betting markets can be a funny thing. That said, why did this total open at a 139 when each of the Pirates 7 games in 2021 have had a posted total below that? Exactly! The average total posted in those 7 games was just 132.3 points. That said, do not let the number fool you as this one should fly over. The Pirates do hit a respectable 35% of their threes when at home and the Mustangs are hitting 35% of threes on the season even on the road where they are at 36% on the season. SMU is off a low-scoring hard-fought win that was their 2nd straight under but this followed 3 straight road overs that saw the Mustangs average 76.3 points per game. The Pirates will get their points at home but this is an East Carolina team that, prior to a low-scoring loss at Memphis, allowed 75.3 points their 4 prior games. So this game should be in the 76-70 range in my opinion and actually cracking the 150 mark would not surprise me at all. That said, the value is here for us. 10* OVER the total in East Carolina |
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02-07-21 | Georgetown v. Villanova OVER 142 | Top | 74-84 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
Big East Beast - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Rotation #811 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Villanova Wildcats vs Georgetown Hoyas @ 2:30 ET - The Wildcats are off just their 2nd loss of the season. When they lost their first game they responded by scoring 87 points in their next game. At home and not happy about scoring just 59 points in their loss to St John's, Villanova will take a very aggressive approach here and won't take their foot off the gas. However, don't be surprised if the Hoyas run right along with the Cats! Georgetown, after a long layoff due to postponed games, has come back with a perfect 2-0 SU mark even though they were a big dog in each game. The Hoyas are playing with a ton of confidence as a result especially since they are coming off a red-hot shooting effort against Creighton. Look for the Hoyas to carry some momentum from that one right into this one and I am looking for a very high-scoring affair as a result. We are getting some value here with the low total because this series has trended under in recent meetings. The value is there because the situation is telling me this should be an over. The Cats are angry and want to put up 90+ if they can but Georgetown comes in with confidence and hot shooting. 10* OVER the total in Villanova |