Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-29-21 | Oregon v. Oklahoma -6.5 | Top | 32-47 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Insider Wednesday 10* Top Play Oklahoma Sooners -6.5 vs Oregon Ducks @ 9:15 ET - The Sooners are the much better overall team in my opinion. Yes they have lost a couple games recently but they only trailed Baylor by 3 entering 4th quarter of the defeat that ended a 17-game winning streak for Oklahoma. Also, the Sooners other loss was by just 4 points to another strong team, Oklahoma State. That said, take a look now at the Ducks losses: lost to a Stanford team that has since lost 7 straight games and finished the season 3-9. Also, Oregon lost twice to Utah by a combined score of 76 to 17. The fact we can still get Oklahoma in the TD range for this game has me rating this play with my top play rating as I feel we have the much stronger team here at a bargain price and the Ducks have shown on 3 different occasions this season that they are fully capable of really disappointing in a game. They do it again here and the Sooners roll. 10* OKLAHOMA -6.5 |
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12-27-21 | Dolphins v. Saints +3.5 | Top | 20-3 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
NFL Primetime Thrasher Monday NFL 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints +3.5 vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:15 ET - Ian Book of the Saints is scheduled to make his first ever NFL start and, in the eyes of the betting marketplace, that means the Dolphins win this game. I disagree. It is not as if Book has never played on the big stage as he played his College Football at Notre Dame! This guy is use to big game settings and also this game is at home. Having the support of the home fans will certainly help Book. Also, New Orleans is a solid team battling to stay alive in the playoff race and they are catching value here because the Dolphins have been on a winning streak. Keep in mind, two of those six Miami wins were over a Jets team that is 4-11 and another one was over a Giants team that is 4-11 and also Houston is 4-11 and Carolina is 5-10. So of the 6 wins in their win streak, 5 were against combined current records of 21-54 (counting Jets record twice). I am just not sold on this Miami team and only one of those 6 wins was on the road and prior to that road win the Dolphins had lost 4 straight games when away from home. 10* NEW ORLEANS +3.5 |
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12-27-21 | Western Michigan v. Nevada +7 | Top | 52-24 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
CFB Earliest Blowout Monday 10* Top Play Nevada Wolf Pack +7 vs Western Michigan @ 11 AM ET - In the regular season the situation here for Nevada would be devastating. But, in bowl time, when a team has extra time to prepare for a game things can be managed much better. Nevada has a number of opt outs for this game but nearly the entire defense is intact and it is made up of veteran players. On offense yes they are starting an inexperienced QB but the 6'9 signal-caller has had extra time to prep with this team and they are going against a MAC defense. The MAC has not performed well overall in these bowls thus far. So, what about the MWC? They are a perfect 4-0 and that includes beating a Pac-12 team (Ore St) and a team (UTSA) that nearly finished with a perfect record in the regular season. This line has gone from Nevada -3 or -4 to now the Wolf Pack being a +7 underdog. More times than not these line moves never work out like the betting masses think they will. A 10 point swing here? A MAC team favored by 7 over an MWC school? I know that Nevada also has an interim head coach for this one but he has this team believing and viewing this is as their "one game season" together. Practices have been spirited and you are going to see a spirited effort from the Wolf Pack come game time too. Look for the defense, mostly intact other than being without one top player, to absolutely be the dominant force in this game! 10* NEVADA +7 |
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12-26-21 | Washington Football Team +9.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 14-56 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
NFL Primetime Punisher Sunday 10* Top Play Washington Football Team +9.5 @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - Washington gets Taylor Heinicke back at QB for this game. This is a rivalry game. Washington swept the Cowboys last season but now has revenge from a loss at home versus Dallas two weeks ago. The Football Team now in a little better shape from the covid that had impacted their roster recently. Also, the road team is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 Cowboys games. Also, Dallas is 1-2 SU and ATS last 3 home games. The road team gets the money in this one. The set up is perfect, everyone is on the Dallas bandwagon now after their big road trip and now, as per usual, the Cowboys return to Jerry's World and disappoint. Look for the Cowboys to win but not cover as I expect this to be a tight game decided by a one-score margin. Look for a huge game from Heinicke in this one and the Cowboys get caught looking ahead to Arizona in a tough match-up in this one. 10* WASHINGTON +9.5 |
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12-26-21 | Giants v. Eagles -10.5 | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 3 h 45 m | Show | |
NFL Earliest Cash Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles -10.5 vs New York Giants @ 1 ET - The Eagles will take advantage of facing a QB making his first ever NFL start against a division rival hungry for a playoff berth. Also, Jake Fromm on the road for this start. I know the line looks big but the Eagles are 7 wins this season have featured 6 by a double digit margin with those 6 wins having an average victory margin of 19.5 points per game. In other words, don't let the big line keep you away from this one. The Giants are a bit of a mess right now and firing the offensive coordinator has not helped. New York is still struggling. The Giants have lost 10 of 14 games this season and 6 of their last 7 losses have been by 11 or more points! In fact, those 6 defeats have come by an average margin of 18.8 points per game. This one gets ugly! 8* PHILADELPHIA -10.5 |
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12-25-21 | Colts +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 24 h 0 m | Show |
NFL Primetime Punisher NFL 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts +2.5 @ Arizona Cardinals @ 8:15 ET - The Cardinals have lost back to back games and 3 straight home games! Not much home field edge here for Arizona. As for the Colts, they are one of the hottest teams around with going 8-3 last 11 games! Indianapolis is off a key win over the Patriots but they will not let up here and the key is they also had a bye week before facing New England. The Colts are the fresher team and hotter and they are still chasing the Titans for the top spot in the division so, again, no letdown here! The Colts have covered 9 of last 11 road games and I will take the points here but don't expect to need them as Arizona is starting to doubt themselves. B2B losses and 3 straight defeats at home...the doubts are creeping in on this team and this Colts team is even better than their full season record indicates. Keep in mind they started the season a poor 0-3 so they have come a long way since then. 10* INDIANAPOLIS +2.5 |
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12-25-21 | Browns +7.5 v. Packers | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show | |
NFL Afternoon Thrasher Saturday 8* Cleveland Browns +7.5 @ Green Bay Packers @ 4:30 ET - The Browns are consistently involved in close games. 6 of their last 8 games decided by 6 or less points! Looking at the Packers last 7 games only 2 of them were GB wins by more than 8 points. Green Bay is off a win over Baltimore while Cleveland is off a loss to the Raiders. Packers have a rest edge here but it is not a big one and the Browns off a loss looks very attractive here. Cleveland has won 5 of 6 games when off a loss and I look for them to again avoid a losing streak here as they bounce back after the loss to Las Vegas last week. We have a cushion to work with here as we are getting 7.5 points so I am speaking about an ATS win here. Loss by 7 or less for the Browns if they don't manage the outright upset. I look for this game to be a tight one decided by a one-score margin. 8* CLEVELAND +7.5 |
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12-25-21 | Ball State +6 v. Georgia State | Top | 20-51 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 47 m | Show |
CFB Perfection Play Saturday 10* Top Play Ball State Cardinals +6 vs Georgia State Panthers @ 2:30 ET - Value with the points here. Feel we are getting extra value in this line simply based on the fact that the Panthers went 8-4 ATS this season while the Cardinals went 4-8 ATS this season. There is really not a lot that separates these two teams and yet Ball State is getting about 6 points in this one. Yes, they come from the MAC and that conference has struggled in these bowls but Georgia State is from the Sun Belt Conference and that is certainly not a powerhouse conference. The Cards have had extra bowl prep time to prepare for a Panthers offense that is rather ground-heavy while I feel strongly that the Cardinals have the better passing attack and that will ultimately prove to be the difference in this one. 10* BALL STATE +6 |
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12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans +3 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 101 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
NFL Thursday Thrasher 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans +3 vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8:20 ET - The Titans are off a loss at Pittsburgh but they nearly doubled up the Steelers in yardage. Tennessee was simply done in by turnovers in that game and this is helping to give us line value here. Keep in mind this Titans team has beaten the Colts twice this season plus the Chiefs, Rams, and Bills. Tennessee can beat anybody on any given Sunday and love them in this spot as a home dog against an over-valued 49ers team! 10* TENNESSEE +3 |
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12-23-21 | Central Florida +7 v. Florida | Top | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Week Thursday 10* Top Play Central Florida Knights +7 vs Florida Gators @ 7 ET - Too many points. Florida has not covered 6 straight games. Central Florida, in this match-up, is like the little brother facing the big brother, an SEC team from the same state. That said, the more motivated team to (no offense intended) to be playing in the Gasparilla Bowl rather than a bigger bowl closer to (or on) New Year's is going to the Knights. They will prove to be the team that wants this more. UCF has won 5 of 6 games SU and here they are getting a full 7 points. Florida's only 3-5 SU last 8 games and one of those wins was by just 3 points and the other 2 were against Samford and a bad Vanderbilt team. The Gators just have not shown us much this season and I expect more of the same in this bowl game. 10* UCF +7 |
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12-21-21 | Washington Football Team v. Eagles -6.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
NFL PA Dominator Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 vs Washington Football Team @ 7 ET - The Eagles are rested off a bye week and also much healthier both on the injury front and in terms of covid issues as you compare these two teams heading into this one. That said, I like the Eagles to roll big at home. Philly finally gets a chance to give Washington some payback as they had won 6 in a row from 2017 to 2019 but then lost both meetings last season. Now it is time for the Eagles to resume the domination and their ground game and better health status and the home field edge will all be key factors as they pull away for the double digit win here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -6.5 |
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12-21-21 | Seahawks +7 v. Rams | Top | 10-20 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
NFL Early Blowout Tuesday 9* Top Play Seattle Seahawks +7 @ Los Angeles Rams @ 7 ET - Just too many points now that Seattle has gotten healthier and is playing a little better. The Rams are a quality team but so many times they disappoint and you know the Seahawks are going to bring their "A game" here and that means we should see quite the ball game here. This one likely to go down to the wire and an outright upset would not surprise me in the least. That said, we have excellent line value here with the +7 on this one. The Seahawks off B2B wins and though they have 8 losses this season 4 of those were by 3 or less points. The Rams are of B2B wins and covers but had lost 5 straight ATS prior to that. LA appears overvalued here and the road dog gets it done. 9* SEATTLE +7 |
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12-21-21 | Wyoming -3.5 v. Kent State | Top | 52-38 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
CFB Daytime Dominator Tuesday Top Play 9* Wyoming Cowboys -3.5 vs Kent State Golden Flashes @ 3:30 ET - The Golden Flashes are a MAC school facing a stronger MWC team here. Don't be fooled by their 6-6 record. Wyoming got better on offense as the season went on and the defense, as per usual, has been the consistent backbone for this Cowboys team. That will be the key again here as Kent State struggles to score and also eventually gets worn down by their opponents ground game. 9* WYOMING |
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12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears +6.5 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
NFL NFC North Game of the Year Monday 10* Top Play Chicago Bears +6.5 vs Minnesota Vikings @ 8:15 ET - I am aware of the Bears having injury/covid issues which has been particularly impacting to their secondary. However, other players for Chicago will step up as needed and let's not forget that Vikings QB Kirk Cousins is just 1-9 SU in Monday Night games. I know not all of that falls on him but it is still a stat that is hard to ignore and now here the Vikings have to win by 7 or more to beat us. I'll grab the big home dog points. You know the Bears are going to bring it in a divisional game like this at Soldier Field. Also, Chicago has won 5 of last 6 meetings between these divisional foes. The Vikings enter this game on a run that, for me, just makes it tough to trust them at all as a favorite. Minnesota nearly blew last week's huge lead versus Pittsburgh as the Vikings defense has now allowed 30.5 points per game last 4 games. Before getting blown out at Green Bay last week, a loss fueled by turnovers, the Packers had allowed only 17 points per game in their 3 divisional games this season. They will bounce back here and the Bears have allowed only 17 points per game in their last 4 games against the Vikes. Typical contrarian angle for me here as the whole world is looking at the situation with the Bears secondary but there is much more to this game than just that aspect and the hungry home dog finds a way to overcome the adversity. 10* CHICAGO +6.5 |
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12-20-21 | Raiders v. Browns -3 | Top | 16-14 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
NFL Contrarian Crusher 9* Top Play Cleveland Browns -3 vs Las Vegas Raiders @ 5 ET - Long-time followers know that I am a contrarian in my handicapping. Most will be lining up on the Raiders here because it was the Browns with all the covid issues. But that means bettors are overlooking the fact that Las Vegas has lost 5 of 6 games and has had a very rough season due to all the off the field distractions. Even if Baker Mayfield can't go for the Browns or Case Keenum could not go then Nick Mullens, solid NFL experience with 49ers, would likely get the call here. Either way I like the fact that we get the Browns at home just favored by the typical 3 points assigned for home field advantage. I say that because the markets are implying these teams are equal and I just don't think they are right now. The moving of the game from Saturday to Monday has allowed the Browns to get healthier and they will get it done in this one and improve to 6-2 in home games this season. 9* CLEVELAND |
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12-20-21 | Tulsa -8.5 v. Old Dominion | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
CFB Daytime Dominator Monday 10* Top Play Tulsa Golden Hurricane -8.5 vs Old Dominion Monarchs @ 2:30 ET - Both these teams are 6-6 but Tulsa is the vastly superior team and played a much tougher schedule. Also, check out their performances against some quality teams and tell me if you think the Monarchs could have duplicated such efforts. Tulsa lost at Oklahoma State by just 5 and were leading that game in the 4th quarter. Also, the Golden Hurricane hung around with Ohio State until the Buckeyes finally pulled away convincingly over the final 5 minutes. Tulsa also nearly beat Cincinnati outright on the road. I can not imagine Old Dominion coming anywhere close to duplicating those efforts. Also, the Monarchs did not even play last season - covid - but the Golden Hurricane did and went 6-0 in their conference games but then lost their bowl game last season. Most of those players returned this season and their motivation level is very high to close this season differently! Last year they faced an SEC team in the bowls and this season they face a CUSA team. Huge difference and they should win this handily by a solid double digit margin. 10* TULSA -8.5 |
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12-19-21 | Saints +11.5 v. Bucs | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
NFL NFC South Game of the Year Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints +11.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:20 PM ET - The Buccaneers are over-valued here. The Saints have owned this series, last season's playoff loss notwithstanding, for quite some time and actually are a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS last 7 regular season meetings. Now I am certainly not saying they will win this game outright but I do expect them to keep this game very competitive throughout. Yes, last week's win was against "only" the Jets but it also was a game in which the Saints got back some key players on offense and that showed in the results. I am well aware the Bucs are the more talented team in this match-up but they continue to be overvalued. Keep in mind a few weeks ago they looked like they would not cover the 3.5 versus Colts but then Fournette got a late TD run when really they were just trying to set up winning field goal. Then last week they were very fortunate to beat the Bills let alone cover the 3.5 as every late break went their way and, again, it was a long late TD run when setting up for FG would have won it. This Bucs team could easily (and should) be just 5-8 ATS this season and the Saints have been a road covering machine and a divisional covering machine in recent seasons and that continues here. Just too many points to give a respectable team like New Orleans even though they are a different team without Winston at QB. Look for Hill to continue to give opponents trouble with his running ability and look for another big game from RB Kamara here as his return last week was big for this team. 10* NEW ORLEANS +11.5 |
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12-19-21 | Cowboys v. Giants +12 | 21-6 | Loss | -112 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
NFL Earliest Cash Sunday 8* New York Giants +12 vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - The Cowboys are over-priced here even though the Giants will again be without QB Daniel Jones. New York is on a 7-2 ATS run against divisional foes. You know this team is going to be "up" for hosting the division leaders as well. About hosting, note that the Giants are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS their last 3 games at home! Now, I am not saying they will win this game outright but I am saying they should keep this one to a single digit margin. The Cowboys are 9-4 SU this season but only 3 of those games have been Dallas wins by more than 10 points. This one likely decided by a single score as I see it! 8* NEW YORK GIANTS +12 |
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12-18-21 | Patriots v. Colts -2 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
NFL Saturday Slaughter - 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts -2 vs New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - The Patriots are 6-0 on the road this season and the Colts are 3-4 at home this season. Why is Indianapolis favored here? Exactly! At the end of the day, the odds makers are the sharpest people around long-term. Sure things fluctuate from day to day and week to week and month to month but those guys are extremely good at what they do. The point here is, don't let the line fool you. Many will be piling up on a New England team that has won 7 straight games but the Colts are the play here. Of the Pats road wins, they faced the Bills in a windstorm that completely changed the complexion of that game. Their other road wins are against the 8-6 Chargers but then 4 teams that are a combined 16-36 on the season! In other words, this is going to be a tougher test than most anything that the Pats have faced on the road this season. Colts hungry to make a statement at home. 10* INDIANAPOLIS |
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12-18-21 | UAB v. BYU -6.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Week Saturday 10* Top Play BYU Cougars -6.5 vs UAB Blazers @ 3:30 ET - I know this UAB team is respectable for sure and I know the location of the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, LA also favors them. However, the line move on BYU from 8.5 to 6.5 has helped to raise this one to top play level for me. BYU started the season with 5 straight wins and ended the season with 5 straight wins. The two losses were in the middle of that were against Boise State and Baylor. No shame in losing to those two teams. Conversely, the Blazers were a 23.5 points dog versus Georgia and lost by 49 points. Also, UAB lost to Liberty by 24 and also got upset by Rice even though they were favored by 24 points in that one! Yes the Blazers should not have lost their game with UTSA and the Roadrunners did have a great season but the fact is UAB did lose it and they play in the CUSA which is certainly resulted in them playing a much weaker schedule than the 10-2 Cougars did! Look for Brigham Young to prove to be too much in this one. 10* BYU -6.5 |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Thursday Thrasher - 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers +3 vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - The Chiefs have been hot but they faced a fading Raiders team twice during this 6-game win streak. They also faced a Giants team that is now 4-9 and faced the Packers when they were without Aaron Rodgers. The Chiefs also benefited from 3 turnovers in their wins over the Cowboys and Broncos and actually were outgained 404 to 267 by Denver in that deceiving 22-9 win. Give KC credit for getting all these wins but the point is that there has been some good fortune in there too. Now facing the #2 team in their division that can tie them in the standings with a win on Thursday, Chiefs are in for a real challenge here. I like the Chargers a lot as a home dog here. Both these teams have strong passing offenses but the key could be the pass defense here. Based on yardage allowed, the pass defense of LA far superior to that of KC on the season. The home team wins the air battle here in this one and, in doing so, also wins the game. 10* LA CHARGERS +3 |
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12-13-21 | Rams +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
NFL NFC West Game of the Year - NFL 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams +2.5 @ Arizona Cardinals @ 8:15 ET - The Jaguars were just what the doctor ordered for the Rams! Last week's blowout win by 30 over Jacksonville was exactly what Los Angeles needed. Building momentum off that huge victory I look for LA to come up big again here. Yes, they lost to the Cardinals earlier this season at home but the Rams got the series sweep both SU and ATS each of the two prior seasons. Also, the bad news for the Cards here is that this game is at home. All kidding aside, the fact is that the road team is 5-0 SU/ATS in the Cardinals last 5 games! I look for that trend to continue here as LA is not happy at all about the way the first game between these teams this season played out. They will respond big here. The Rams are two games behind Arizona in the NFC West standings but after tonight there are still 4 games to go in the regular season and LA can move within 1 game of the Cardinals with a win tonight. Look for them to get it as they resume their series dominance plus make it 6 in a row in terms of road team victories in Cards games. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS +2.5 |
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12-12-21 | Bills +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conf Game of the Month Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills +3.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4:25 ET - The Bills are on short rest this week and the Bucs have regular rest. I certainly understand that factor. However, the fact Buffalo lost at home Monday versus the Patriots and they are 4-0 SU/ATS this season when off a loss has me liking the Bills a ton in this spot. Buffalo won those 4 games by a combined score of 137 to 34 says a lot. No, this game will not be a blowout like that but the point is the Bills respond very well off losses and I like them to at least get the cover in this one. Keep in mind, Buffalo has only lost the money once in last dozen games as a road dog and also they have covered all but 1 of last 10 in non-conference action. Tampa Bay has won and covered 3 in a row but this team was 3-6 ATS on the season prior to that. The Bills have the much better pass defense and rushing offense and I look for both of those factors to help lead the way to a road cover, if not outright win, in this one! 10* BUFFALO +3.5 |
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12-12-21 | Cowboys v. Washington Football Team +5 | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
NFL Earliest Cash Sunday 8* Washington Football Team +5 vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - Washington has won and covered 4 in a row overall plus they are at home for this one. They beat Dallas in both meetings last season and are playing with a lot of confidence and momentum right now. The Cowboys had failed, both SU and ATS, in 3 of last 4 before the win over the Saints last week. I know Dallas has a little rest edge coming into this one since they last played on Thursday but the Football Team is really starting to believe they can make a run for post-season and absolutely have a shot at 5 in a row here and can narrow gap with Cowboys. Keep in mind they face them again at Dallas in two weeks. Huge game today and value with the home dog. 8* WASHINGTON +5 |
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12-06-21 | Patriots v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
NFL ESPN Blowout - 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills -2.5 vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - The weather is going to be quite bad tonight in terms of winds which is going to make the ground game more important in this one. Statistically, both teams are solid in terms of running the ball but in terms of rush defense the Bills rate much better. That plus home field could make a huge difference in this game. Also, in terms of cold weather familiarity and dealing with blustery winds, Bills QB Josh Allen played his college ball at Wyoming while Mac Jones played at Alabama. These couple keys I just mentioned may seem like minor ones but they do carry some weight here and can be a difference maker in a key divisional battle like this. The Patriots have certainly been the hotter team of late but I like the Bills in this one at home and looking to make up for the embarrassing effort against the Colts the last time they played here at Orchard Park. 10* BUFFALO -2.5 |
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12-05-21 | Broncos v. Chiefs -8.5 | Top | 9-22 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
NFL SNF Blowout - 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 vs Denver Broncos @ 8:20 ET - This looks like the perfect spot for the Chiefs to put it all together. They are facing a rival they typically dominate. They are coming off a bye week. They have won 4 straight. Speaking of 4 straight wins, Kansas City has won last 4 meetings with Broncos by sweeping them each of past two seasons. The Chiefs beat Denver by an average margin of 19.3 points in those 4 wins. I know the Sunday Night pointspread may seem a little steep but don't let it scare you away. Remember, before last week's Broncos win Denver lost by 17 at home versus the Eagles. Also, the Chiefs have played the tougher schedule this season thusfar in comparison with Denver as KC has had games against Buffalo, Tennessee, and Green Bay. This game is priced high for a season and I expect a huge game from Mahomes with the advantage of the added prep time and I look for the Chiefs defense to really get after Bridgewater in this one. The KC defense will have their ears pinned back and they have allowed 17 or less points in 5 of last 6 games. More of the same here. 10* KANSAS CITY |
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12-05-21 | Eagles -5 v. Jets | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
NFL Earliest Rout - 8* Philadelphia Eagles -5 @ New York Jets @ 1 ET - This line dropped significantly because of QB Hurts is expected to miss this game and Minshew will get the call. Minshew has 2 seasons in the NFL under his belt and threw for 37 touchdowns against 11 interceptions and he played those two years for a Jacksonville team that went a combined 7-25. Read that sentence again. Do you see my point? He played for a bad team and yet put up some incredible numbers. I just do not think this is even worthy of a drop in the line. Philly is off a frustrating loss to the Giants and will bounce back huge against a very bad Jets team. Note that the Jets are off a win but over a bad Houston team and, prior to this, they had lost 8 of 10 games and all but one of those losses were by 7 or more points. The Eagles had won 3 of 4 before the loss to the Giants and all 3 wins were by double digits. I expect this victory will also be by 10+ points. Lay it. 8* PHILADELPHIA -5 |
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12-04-21 | Georgia v. Alabama +6.5 | Top | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
CFB SEC Rout - 10* Top Play Alabama Crimson Tide +6.5 vs Georgia Bulldogs @ 4 ET - Getting this many points with a high-quality team like Alabama that is in a rare dog role and 4-1 ATS last 5 as an underdog means I am in! Yes Georgia is having an incredible season but this is now Alabama's Super Bowl for the season per se and I just don't see them being denied here. I am not saying the Tide will indeed win outright but they should keep this close enough to at least get the cash. Two fantastic defenses and the Bulldogs do rate an edge there but, statistically, the Crimson Tide rate a bigger edge on offense. Look for that to be a difference maker in this one in a game that is likely to go down to the wire and that means having the points is a huge edge for us as an outright upset would not surprise me here. Grab the the points for added betting value. 10* ALABAMA +6.5 |
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12-04-21 | Utah State +6 v. San Diego State | 46-13 | Win | 100 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
CFB MWC Blowout - CFB 8* Utah State Aggies +6 vs San Diego State Aztecs @ 3 ET - So many of the Aztecs wins are tight wins. San Diego State just does not have the offense to win games by huge margins and I feel the Aggies will keep this one close. Utah State has the better offense in this match-up and in games against common foes, the Aggies were more impressive statistically. Don't be surprised when, in this one, it translates to at least an ATS win and possibly even an outright upset win. Grab the points in this one. 8* UTAH STATE +6 |
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12-03-21 | Oregon +3 v. Utah | Top | 10-38 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
CFB Pac-12 Game of the Month - 10* Top Play Oregon Ducks +3 vs Utah Utes @ 8 ET - This is a chance at right back revenge after the Utes got the better of the Ducks two weeks ago in a game played at Utah. That game was at Utah. This one is at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas as it is a neutral site game for the Pac-12 Championship. Oregon is 4-0 SU all time in the Pac-12 Championship while Utah is 0-2 SU all time in this game. All those games occurring since 2014 so this is not ancient history by any means. I look for the Ducks to keep that trend going as they will be much more relaxed in the rematch after playing with "playoff pressure" in the first meetings as they still had hopes, at that time, of making the CFP group of four. Look for the Ducks offense to be much better in this rematch and to do enough for the outright win but we'll grab the points as added insurance. 10* OREGON +3 |
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12-02-21 | Cowboys -5.5 v. Saints | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Thursday Thrasher - 10* Top Play Dallas Cowboys -5.5 @ New Orleans Saints @ 8:20 ET - Good news for Cowboys fans is that this game is not in Dallas. All kidding aside, the fact is that Dallas was 4-0 ATS in road games this season before that recent ugly loss at Kansas City. The Cowboys have had some recent struggles but this passing attack is averaging nearly 300 yards per game this season and I just don't think the Saints can keep up here. Taysom Hill is back at QB for New Orleans this week but what makes him dangerous is his running ability and he is coming back from a foot injury. I don't 100% trust Hill in the passing game and the Saints are averaging less than 200 yards passing per game on the season. New Orleans also is a poor 1-3 SU and ATS in games played in the Superdome this season. They struggle again here and the Cowboys take out some anger and frustration after suffering back to back losses for the first time this season. Look for the Saints to drop their 5th in a row SU and I am confident that the road favorite can win this by 7 or more for the all important cover. 10* DALLAS -5.5 |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks +1 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
NFL Primetime Punisher - 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks +1 @ Washington Football Team @ 8:15 ET - Russell Wilson was not great but he was better in his 2nd start back from the finger injury. Keep in mind that was against an Arizona team with a solid pass defense that is now 9-2 on the season. Yes, Taylor Heinicke is off a strong start last week but it was against his former team and that Panthers team dropped to 5-7 on the year with an embarrassing performance yesterday at Miami. I know that Washington's win at Carolina did follow a huge home dog upset over the Bucs but upsets do happen from time to time. The fact is that Washington was 0-4 ATS at home this season before knocking off Tampa Bay. I will take Wilson and a hungry Seahawks team off B2B losses against Washington (plays in the NFC Least Division!) team led by Heinicke that is off rare B2B wins any time any place. Wilson and the fired up Seahawks make a statement on the road in a Monday Night game with all their NFL peers watching. 10* SEATTLE +1 |
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11-28-21 | Browns +3.5 v. Ravens | 10-16 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
NFL Primetime Punisher - 8* Cleveland Browns +3.5 @ Baltimore Ravens @ 8:20 ET - The Ravens are 1-3 ATS last 4 home games. Baltimore also had failed to cover 3 straight games before the ugly win at Chicago last week. I know Lamar Jackson is expected back at QB for this one but will he be 100%? The Browns have lost 3 straight meetings with Baltimore and out for revenge here. The Ravens have had one dominating effort, versus the Chargers, at home this season but in the other 4 games as a host Baltimore has allowed an average of 33 points per game and, again, this is at home! The Browns have held their opponents to 16 points or less in 4 of last 5 games! Like the Ravens, Cleveland is off an ugly win as they barely got by Detroit but here they will make up for an ugly road loss at New England. Prior to getting embarrassed by the Patriots, the Browns had gone 3-1 ATS in road games this season. I look for a statement game here from the road dog as they finally step against the "big brother" in the division and knock off Baltimore. I will grab the points as added insurance here but do expect an outright win. 8* CLEVELAND |
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11-28-21 | Rams -1 v. Packers | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -122 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Month - 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams -1 vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers will play through a broken toe here in the freezing cold in Green Bay. Does not sound like fun. This is particularly true against a tough Rams defense. Additionally, that LA defense is angry and rested as the Rams are off their bye week. That was preceded by B2B losses but Los Angeles has only failed to cover the spread twice the last nine times they were off a bye week. In other words, look for the Rams to get the win and cover here. They have plenty of motivation too because they lost at Green Bay 32 to 18 last season. Los Angeles is in dire need of a win here, has revenge, and they have a rest edge. The Packers have lost 2 of 3 and are off a road loss at Minnesota last week. This one is all Rams and, trust me, there is a reason the Packers are a dog here even though they are at home and have the better record on the season. Don't let the line fool you. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS -1 |
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11-28-21 | Titans +7.5 v. Patriots | 13-36 | Loss | -124 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
NFL Earliest Cash - 8* Tennessee Titans +7 or +7.5 @ New England Patriots @ 1 ET - Yes the Titans have had injury issues and the Patriots have been rolling but this line has gone too far. Tennessee is off a loss at Houston but that was due to a rare 5-0 turnover deficit. The Titans actually outgained the Texans by a margin of 420 to 190 in that game! The fact Tennessee lost that game 22-13 on the scoreboard despite the big yardage edge is what is helping to give us some line value here. The Patriots are hot but are actually just 2-4 SU at home this season and are 5-0 SU on the road. The point is that, playing the road team in New England games this season nets you a 9-2 SU record and we are getting a full TD with the Titans here. I'll take it as I look for them to bounce back off last week's sloppy loss. Tennessee is 4-1 SU and ATS in road games this season. Titans on a long-term 5-1 ATS run as a road dog. 8* TENNESSEE +7 or +7.5 |
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11-27-21 | Oklahoma +4.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 33-37 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
CFB Bedlam Blowout - 10* Top Play Oklahoma Sooners +4.5 @ Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 7:30 ET - I know the Cowboys defense has been incredible this season but the Sooners offense can be special and that is particularly true in this rivalry game that always seems to bring out the best in Oklahoma. The Sooners have actually won each of the last 6 meetings and need a win here to make sure they make the Big 12 title game! Of course Oklahoma State has no shortage of motivation either but can the Cowboys not only win but also cover this spread? I do not think so and an outright upset would not surprise me in the least but seeing this line up to +4.5 means even more value with the underdog in this one. The Sooners just always seem to find a way to ruin everything for the Cowboys in this match-up. Keep in mind, Oklahoma State was a dog of an average of 10 points in the past two meetings but lost those games by an average margin of 23 points! The Sooners do it again as they have the better passing attack in this match-up and that will end up being the difference here. Oklahoma State has ended up over-valued in this game because they are on a miracle 9-0 ATS run. That run ends here! 10* OKLAHOMA +4.5 |
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11-27-21 | Texas Tech +14.5 v. Baylor | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
CFB Earliest Cash - 8* Texas Tech Red Raiders +14.5 @ Baylor Bears @ Noon ET - Red Raiders off a home shutout loss to Oklahoma State. However, they have performed well off a loss this season and have not suffered back to back ATS losses all season. Texas Tech is known for playing the Bears tough and they have actually gone 8-1 ATS last 9 visits to Waco! Overall, it is a 5-2 ATS run for the Red Raiders in this series. Yes, Baylor is a rock solid team and has Big 12 Championship Game aspirations still alive. However, the Bears are 5-2 SU last 7 games in conference action but only 1 win by more than a 14 point margin. The Red Raiders bounce back off their shutout loss. Their defense will bounce back too after allowing 52 points at Oklahoma in most recent road game but allowing only 17 points per game in the two Big 12 road games before that. 8* TEXAS TECH +14.5 |
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11-26-21 | Cincinnati v. East Carolina +14 | Top | 35-13 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
AAC Game of the Year - CFB 10* Top Play East Carolina Pirates +14 vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 3:30 ET - The Pirates opened this season with a loss by 14 points. Since then, East Carolina has not had a loss by more than 7 points. Overall, the Pirates have won 7 of last 9 games SU and had covered 6 in a row before last week's 3-point SU win fell just short of the cover. East Carolina is catching the Bearcats off a huge 48-14 win over SMU last week. Cincinnati finally had that dominating win everyone was waiting for as their perfect season (11-0 SU) continues. However, the Bearcats entered that game on an 0-4 ATS run and I expect this road game against a confident Pirates team to be one of their toughest games of this season. This looks like a very tricky spot on the schedule to wrap up the regular season. 10* EAST CAROLINA +14 |
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11-25-21 | Bills -6 v. Saints | Top | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
NFL Primetime Punisher - 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills -6 @ New Orleans Saints @ 8:20 ET - After getting completely embarrassed on their home field by the Colts last week, the Bills bounce back strong here. The Saints have struggled without starting QB Winston and have dealt with other injury issues as well. New Orleans now has lost 3 straight games and an angry Buffalo team is surely going to show no mercy here either. The Bills have a solid passing attack and the Saints struggle to stop the pass. On the flip side, the Saints struggle to move the ball through the air and Buffalo, overall, has one of the best defensive units in the league. The Bills are 3-0 SU/ATS this season when off a loss and, in all 10 of their games this season the SU winner has also been the ATS winner. Look for those patterns to continue here in this one. Bills also on an 8-1 ATS run in non-conference match-ups and, keep in mind, they did not just lose last week...they got blasted. That is the kind of defeat strong teams bounce back from in a strong way! 10* BUFFALO -6 |
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11-25-21 | Ole Miss +2.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
CFB Rivalry Dominator - 10* Top Play Ole Miss Rebels +2.5 @ Mississippi State Bulldogs @ 7:30 ET - The Rebels defense has improved some over original expectations and actually allowing only 16.8 points per game last 3 games. On the other side of the ball, Ole Miss is averaging over 515 yards of offense per game and that includes 232 yards on the ground! Compare that to a Bulldogs offense that is averaging only 61 yards per game on the ground on the season! So you have an underdog that should dominate the ground game in this one and whose defense has played better in recent games. I like my chances with the points here as I also point back to the recent crazy game with the Aggies where the Rebels had about 400 yards of offense in the first half but less than 20 points to show for it. I know what this offense is capable of doing and, in a rivalry game that is the final game of the regular season, I look for Ole Miss to bring it. Yes this will be their 9th straight week with a game but the situation for Mississippi State is not much different as this is their 7th straight week with a game. Also, in a rivalry game with so much at stake for each team, neither will be flat or playing tired here. Give me the points with an underdog that can run all over the favorite. 10* OLE MISS +2.5 |
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11-25-21 | Bears v. Lions +3 | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
NFL Earliest Cash - 8* Detroit Lions +3 vs Chicago Bears @ 12:30 ET - Detroit still seeking that first win of the season and they know this game is one of their best chances remaining on the schedule. That said, I feel they will not let this opportunity pass them by. Chicago is a mess right now as rumors swirl that their head coach could be fired after this game regardless of the outcome. As for the Lions, they have been more competitive recently with a 3-point loss at Cleveland and a 16-all tie at Pittsburgh. Detroit is now hosting a Bears team that has lost 5 straight games. Another key for Lions is Jared Goff is expected back under center. That was the news that broke last night and is part of the reason I waited till this morning to release my Thanksgiving Day selections. Here is the first of my big card. 8* DETROIT +3 |
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11-22-21 | Giants +11.5 v. Bucs | Top | 10-30 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - 10* Top Play NEW YORK GIANTS +11.5 - The Bucs are off B2B losses. Yes I know TB is back home and those two losses were on the road. However, Tampa Bay is 4-0 at home but lets take a closer look. The biggest win was actually the smallest margin win as the Buccaneers did beat the Cowboys by 2 points to open up the season. However, the other 3 wins were against teams that are now a combined 11-20 this season. Now of course I know the Giants are only 3-6 on the season but 2 of their SU wins have come in the last 3 games and, overall, they are on a 3-0 ATS run. Giants are also a solid 3-1 ATS in road games this season and the points should prove well worth the taking here. The Bucs are starting to question themselves after the B2B losses and Brady INT's, etc. Don't be surprised if this one ends up being tight as a result. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS +11.5 |
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11-21-21 | Steelers +6 v. Chargers | Top | 37-41 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
NFL Primetime Punisher - 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers +6 - The Steelers will have Roethlisberger back under center and I look for Pittsburgh to take advantage of facing a Chargers team that has allowed an average of 31 points per game last 5 games. Yes the Steelers are off disappointing tie last week versus Detroit but I look for having Big Ben back to make a big difference in this game. The Steelers had averaged 23.5 points per game in winning 4 straight games prior to that tie. Also, Pittsburgh has allowed only 18.4 points per game last 5 games. Keep in mind we don't need them to win this game outright either, rather we just need them to at least stay within the number and I like our changes of that. I feel this Chargers team is over-rated and they have lost 3 of games and also only have one win by more than 6 points this entire season! Lot of value with the points here. 10* PITTSBURGH +6 |
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11-21-21 | Ravens -5 v. Bears | 16-13 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
NFL Earliest Cash - 8* Baltimore -5 - The Ravens are angry off a horrible effort on Thursday night football at Miami last week. Baltimore has some extra rest heading into this game and will be in a fighting mood. I know the Bears also have extra rest because they are off a bye week but note that Chicago is 0-7 ATS the last 7 times they were off a bye. Statistically, the Bears have one of the worst offenses in the league this season while the Ravens have been one of the best. That said, I look for the road favorite to pull away as this game goes on as Chicago does not have the offense to keep up. I like taking strong teams off losses and the Ravens respond big here. 8* BALTIMORE |
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11-20-21 | Oregon v. Utah -3 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Year - 10* Top Play UTAH -3 - Love the set up here. All the pressure is on Oregon as they are trying to retain their top four positioning in the CFP rankings. Not only that the Ducks are on the road here and facing a Utah team hell bent on revenge after losing the 2019 Pac-12 Championship Game to Oregon by double digits. Look for the Utes to take advantage of home field here and playing more pressure-free than the Ducks. Of course there is a reason that Utah is favored by 3 even though the Ducks are ranked much higher in the top 25 than they are. Not going to say the odds makers are setting a trap intentionally but will say this line is set this way with good reason. Note Ducks are on a 4-8 ATS run as a dog away from home and the Utes have covered 68% of their last 25 games in Pac-12 action. The Utes were done in by turnovers the last time these teams met but the first downs were nearly equal in that match-up. Ducks averaging 28 points per game their last 3 on the road. Utes averaging 41 points per game last 6 games. Look for the hosts and their brand of physical football to wear down Oregon as this game goes on and they will pull away in the latter stages of this one for a solid home victory. 10* UTAH -3 |
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11-20-21 | SMU +10 v. Cincinnati | 14-48 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
CFB Afternoon Annihilation - 8* SMU +10 - The Bearcats have failed to cover 4 straight games. Those games were against weaker competition too. Now Cincinnati has to step up and face a tougher foe. Certainly the undefeated Bearcats have the much better defense in this match-up but SMU has a very dangerous offense and their only two losses this season were each by single digits. Last year Cincinnati rolled the Mustangs at SMU but the final score of 42 to 13 hides the fact that the losing team actually had a 22 to 17 edge in first downs! I feel this Mustangs offense, especially with RB Bentley now back in the lineup and off a strong game, is absolutely going to give the Bearcats all they can handle here! Mustangs averaging 42 points and 500 yards per game this season. Cincinnati may finally see their unbeaten season come to an end but, if not, definitely expecting this one to be decided by only a single score because the SMU defense will be fired up about facing the undefeated Bearcats and should have one of their best games of the season. Note that the Mustangs have allowed more than 28 points only 3 times in 10 games this season. In those other 7 games they have allowed an average of 19.6 points per game. This one goes to the wire! 10* SMU +10 |
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11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons +7 | Top | 25-0 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #312 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons +7 vs New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - Look for Falcons to bounce back off ugly loss at Dallas. Atlanta has covered 6 of last 7 against AFC opponents. I know the Patriots are hot but they are on a 3-5 ATS run in non-conference games and just laying too many points on the road in this one. New England is now over-valued because of their winning streak and Falcons undervalued because of ugly loss to Cowboys last week. Patriots last week caught Browns when Cleveland was off huge divisional win over Bengals at Cincinnati the prior week. Other teams faced during the NE win streak include a Panthers team that entered the game losers in 4 of 5 and a Chargers team that has now lost 3 of 4 and a Jets team that is 2-7 on the season. Now they face a Falcons team that had won 4 of 6 prior to the loss at Dallas last week. That said, we are not asking Atlanta to win this game but just to cover the TD spread and I fully expect they will do at least that here. 10* ATLANTA +7 |
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11-17-21 | Northern Illinois v. Buffalo +1.5 | Top | 33-27 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #310 Wednesday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bulls +1.5 vs Northern Illinois Huskies @ 7 ET - Huskies off another tight win and that has been the key for them this season but their luck runs out here. I know Northern Illinois needs just one more win to clinch the MAC West but I also know this is the home finale for Buffalo plus the Bulls need to win this game and their season finale next week to get to 6 wins to be bowl eligible. You also know the Bulls would love to play role of spoiler here against the Huskies. Buffalo does not want them clinching MAC West on their field! The Bulls averaged 36.4 ppg at home and allowing 28.2 ppg while Northern Illinois averaging 28.0 ppg and allowing 38.8 ppg on the road this season. 10* BUFFALO +1.5 |
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11-16-21 | Western Michigan -5.5 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #301 Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Michigan Broncos (-) @ Eastern Michigan Eagles @ 7:30 ET - Why is Western Michigan favored by nearly a full TD over a team that shares identical records (overall and MAC) with them? Particularly one can ask that question when you consider that the Broncos are on the road for this one too! Well the fact is that Eastern Michigan is the much weaker team defensively. This includes the Eagles struggling against the run and the Broncos offense is the much better ground game in this match-up. Indeed there is a match-up issue here for Eastern Michigan and I look for Western Michigan to take full advantage! The Broncos seek revenge here for losing to the Eagles each of the last two seasons as well. Do not let the line fool you here. It is set this way with good reason and the road team has the edges on both sides of the ball in this one. As a result, look for a road rout here. 10* WESTERN MICHIGAN -5.5 |
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11-15-21 | Rams -3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
MNF Blowout - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #265 Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams -3.5 @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - The Rams are off an ugly home loss to the Titans but outgained Tennessee by a substantial margin so it was a deceiving final score. Prior to that loss, Los Angeles was 7-1 on the season and only 1 of the wins was by less than 9 points! That is why I am fully comfortable laying the short number on the road here. I like taking good teams off losses. Yes, the Niners are off a loss too but San Francisco has now lost 5 of last 6 games and each of their last 4 losses were by 7 or more points. Look for this one to be by at least that margin as well. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS -3.5 |
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11-14-21 | Chiefs -2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #263 Sunday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 @ Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:20 ET - There are 4 teams the Raiders have faced this season that the Chiefs have not faced and those teams entered this week's action with a combined record of 14-20. There are 5 teams Kansas City has faced that Las Vegas has not faced and those teams have a combined record of 26-17. The other 4 teams each has faced are common opponents on the schedule thus far. The point is that the Chiefs have faced the tougher schedule thus far. I know KC continues to underachieve at the betting window as they are on a long-term ugly ATS run. However, this line is a 2.5 and all 5 of the Kansas City wins this season have been by 3 or more points. I highly doubt the spread is going to come into play in this game. The SU winner will very likely be the ATS winner. The Raiders have dealt with a lot (Gruden, Ruggs) this season and it is starting to catch up with them. Las Vegas has lost 3 of 5 games SU and is on a 2-4 ATS run. The Raiders only two wins during this stretch were over a bad Eagles team that has lost 6 of 9 this season and over a Broncos team that was slumping at the time and ended up with a 4-game losing streak. The Chiefs have underachieved so far this season but this is after huge success in recent years and I really expect them to raise things to another level down the stretch run of the season. Certainly this KC team has the pedigree to do just that. This is the time of year that separates the contenders from the pretenders and with the Chiefs a 1/2 game back in the standings (one more loss than the Raiders) they need this game and I feel strongly they will rise to the occasion here behind a huge game from Mahomes as he puts this team on his back and gets it done in primetime. 10* KANSAS CITY -2.5 |
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11-14-21 | Browns +2.5 v. Patriots | 7-45 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #243 Sunday 8* Cleveland Browns +2.5 @ New England Patriots @ 1 ET - The Browns are off a key win over the Bengals in divisional action but the Patriots are off a deceiving turnover-fueled 24-6 win at Carolina. Last week, New England was held to less than 300 yards of offense. The Browns had nearly 100 yards more offense at Cincinnati than the Pats had against the Panthers last week. I am just not sold on this New England team and they had allowed 24 points per game last 3 games before shutting down a horrible Darnold-led offense last week. The Browns, on the other hand, have allowed just 15 points per game last 3 games and their defense gets it done again here. 8* CLEVELAND +2.5 |
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11-13-21 | Iowa State v. Texas Tech +10.5 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #179 Saturday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders +10.5 vs Iowa State Cyclones @ 3:30 ET - This is a horrible scheduling spot for Iowa State. The Cyclones are off a huge home win last week versus Texas and have a massive game at undefeated Oklahoma on deck. That said, laying double digits at Lubbock, where the Red Raiders are known for being tough to play, is almost never a good idea. This will be the first home game for Texas Tech since they fired their head coach. This is also expected to be the first game for starting QB Tyler Shough (collarbone) since late September. Even if he did not play, which honestly would shock me if he did not, Donovan Smith was solid in the loss two weeks ago at Oklahoma when he replaced Henry Colombi who is now out for the Red Raiders due to illness. So you have the Cyclones in a bad scheduling situation and Texas Tech coming off a bye week and ready to win their first home game played since they have gone to an interim head coach. I know the Red Raiders are only 2-2 this season at home but one of those losses was by a single and, given the situation here, I absolutely expect this game to go down to the wire and feel we have fantastic line value with the big points. 10* TEXAS TECH |
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11-13-21 | Oklahoma -5 v. Baylor | 14-27 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
Earliest Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #149 Saturday 8* Oklahoma Sooners -5 @ Baylor Bears @ Noon ET - The Sooners have won 23 of the last 26 meetings with the Bears. That said, I also look for Oklahoma to cover this rather small number as they continue the long-term domination in this series. Baylor has lost 2 of its last 5 games both SU and ATS and prior to last week's loss at TCU was fortunate in rallying from a big deficit to knock off Texas. That said, I feel the Bears are still a little over-valued here and the Sooners pull away as this one goes on to not only remain undefeated on the season but to win this game by an impressive double digit margin. Baylor offense won't be able to keep up as they have been held to 31 or less in 4 of last 6 games while Sooners have scored 52 or more in 3 of last 4 games. 8* OKLAHOMA |
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11-12-21 | Cincinnati -23 v. South Florida | Top | 45-28 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
CFB Earliest Cash - 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bearcats -23 - Everyone is down on the Bearcats now because they have failed to cover 3 straight games as big favorites. You know what that means. This is the perfect time to back them. This South Florida team is not a good football team. They did get QB McClain back from injury last week but he threw 2 picks. Remember he also threw 2 picks in season opening loss to NC State by a count of 45-0. Last week the Bulls gave up 54 points to Houston. If they give up anywhere close to that point range here they are not covering this game because I look for an angry Bearcats defense to have their ears pinned back for this one as they look to make amends for last week's dismal effort against the Tulsa ground game. This is going to be a statement game for Cincy and they need style points for the CFP Playoff rankings and I look for them to finally get them this week. 10* CINCINNATI -23 |
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11-11-21 | Ravens -7.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 10-22 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #113 Thursday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens -7.5 @ Miami Dolphins @ 8:20 ET - There is some question about who the Dolphins QB will be here but think about whether that is really a big deal or not. Would you rather have Lamar Jackson or Jacoby Brissett or Tua Tagovailoa leading your team? Exactly! Only one of those guys suits up for the Ravens and he is ready to go tonight. Jackson coming off a huge game versus the Vikings and, speaking of huge games, check out the following. The Ravens most recent road game was a 23-7 win. Baltimore's 3 most recent games against the Dolphins all were wins by margins of 32 points or more. Expect more of the same here as Miami enters this game off a rare win - against the downtrodden Texans - but had lost 7 in a row SU and 5 in a row ATS prior to that victory. Look for Ravens to pull away for easy win in this one! 10* BALTIMORE -7.5 |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina +7 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 23-30 | Push | 0 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
ESPN Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #115 Thursday 10* Top Play North Carolina Tar Heels +7 @ Pittsburgh Panthers @ 7:30 ET - The Tar Heels are off a huge come back win but they sure as hell will not be flat here. Pittsburgh is at the top of the ACC Coastal Division which is where UNC also resides. The Panthers have just one ACC loss while the Heels sit at a disappointing 3-3. That said, I don't foresee the Tar Heels being denied here and love the value with the move on this one up to a +7. North Carolina has played the tougher schedule. That said, the Panthers have some statistical edges but some of this is also based on the teams they have faced. By the way, Pittsburgh is only 3-2 SU at home this season. Yes one of those wins was an impressive win over Clemson but the Tigers are really down this season. The Panthers other two home wins were against Massachusetts and New Hampshire! So the fact Pittsburgh lost outright at home to Miami and Western Michigan shows they can be beat here for sure. Panthers have moved into the top 25 rankings too which you can bet North Carolina is aware of as well. So in the lone game going Thursday in CFB this game takes center stage and the Tar Heels will have their ears pinned back going hard for the upset win on the road. They may fall just short of that but I am not doubting this potent UNC offense in terms of backdoor cover potential as well, especially getting a +7 now. The fact is an outright upset would not surprise me in the least as the tougher schedule they have faced is the hidden edge here that the markets may not be properly adjusting for. 10* NORTH CAROLINA +7 |
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11-10-21 | Ball State -2.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Early Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #111 Wednesday 10* Top Play Ball State Cardinals -2.5 @ Northern Illinois Huskies @ 7 ET - The Cardinals are favored even though they are on the road and the Huskies have the better overall record and the better record in MAC games. What does that tell you? Exactly! In my opinion Ball State is indeed the better team and they have the edge at head coach. Keep in mind the Huskies have overachieved a bit this season and I believe last week's loss to Kent State is a sign of things to come. Was tough to see their star QB Lombardi get knocked out last week. I know he is expected back this week but NIU has other injury concerns too. The Cards are the healthier team heading into this one and they did make the mistake of looking past Akron last week and very nearly lost the game as a result. Ball State got caught looking ahead to this big showdown with the Huskies. But those kinds of things happen and what I like now in this match-up is having the better defense and the Cardinals and head coach Neu have beaten the Huskies and head coach Hammock in each of the latter's first two seasons in DeKalb. That trend continues here. 10* BALL STATE |
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11-09-21 | Buffalo v. Miami-OH -7.5 | Top | 18-45 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Early Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Miami-Ohio Redhawks -7.5 vs Buffalo Bulls @ 7 ET - The Redhawks disappointed me last week but I will come right back with them this week. Last week Miami-Ohio fell short versus Ohio University but they will now take advantage of a Buffalo team with a banged up quarterback and a questionable defense. The Bulls allowed 56 points last week and that was at home. Though they had a solid defensive effort in most recent road game that was against a very bad Akron team. Prior to that, Buffalo allowed 37 points per game in 3 prior road games. Yes the Redhawks D struggled last week but this was after allowing just 18 points per game 5 prior weeks. Also, they recently welcomed back their QB Brett Gabbert from injury and he threw for nearly 500 yards and for 5 touchdowns last week. 10* MIAMI-OHIO -7.5 |
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11-07-21 | Titans v. Rams -7 | Top | 28-16 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Non-Conf Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams -7 vs Tennessee Titans @ 8:20 ET - Waiting has paid off here as the line was mostly in the 7.5 range until Sunday morning and now it has dropped to a -7. Love the value here with the Rams favored by just a TD at home against a Titans team off a huge divisional road win over the rival Colts in OT last week on the road. Yes, Tennessee is 3-1 on the road this season but one of the wins was against a horrible Jacksonville team. The other two victories were both in overtime. Give the Titans credit for notching those road OT wins but they could easily be 1-3 in road games this season with the only win against a 1-6 Jaguars team. Also love the last week the Titans had to put in a ton of effort and rallied from a 14-0 deficit. Conversely the Rams were able to cruise to the win after building a 38-0 lead. Note that the loss of RB Derrick Henry to injury is also a big blow for Tennessee. This Rams team is the better team in the trenches on both sides of the ball particularly when it comes to pass protection when they have the ball and pass rushing when on defense. That said, and with the Titans having to throw more with Henry being out, the Rams defense will be able to key on the pass and I feel Tannehill and Company could have a big challenge here. Look for the Titans to score some but they won't be able to keep up with red hot Stafford and this Rams offense which has been surging of late. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS -7 |
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11-07-21 | Patriots v. Panthers +3.5 | 24-6 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Carolina Panthers +3.5 vs New England Patriots @ 1 ET - The Panthers have seen QB Darnold and RB McCaffrey each get upgraded to questionable for this game. Even if neither played - though I do expect both to play - I like my chances with the home dog Panthers here. Carolina got a much needed win at Atlanta last week and this is a solid team defensively and fundamentally. I know the Patriots, just like Carolina, are 4-4 on the season and off B2B wins and I am hearing some chatter about watching out for New England because they are surging a bit. But I am not convinced about this team just yet. The Patriots have two wins over the 2-6 Jets and a 1-7 Texans team. The only win over a stronger team is over the 4-3 Chargers. But the odds makers are a very sharp bunch as you know and they have the Chargers as nearly a pick'em against the Eagles this week! So what does that tell you about how good the Chargers really are? So the point is just that the Pats are very over-valued here in my opinion. Maybe they do eke out a win but to be favored on the road by 3.5 points against a defensive-minded home dog? I just do not see it! In 8 games this season New England has only 2 victories that were by more than 3 points! Panthers, in 4 home games this season, only have 1 loss by more than 3 points. 8* CAROLINA +3.5 |
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11-06-21 | Tennessee v. Kentucky +1.5 | Top | 45-42 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Kentucky Wildcats +1.5 vs Tennessee Volunteers @ 7 ET - I know this is a revenge game for Tennessee but the line has gone from Kentucky -3 to now the underdog in this match-up is the Wildcats! In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the line move. The Wildcats have the better defense in this match-up plus the Volunteers continue to be over-valued by the betting markets. Kentucky did lose last week at Mississippi State but were 6-1 ATS this season prior to that non-covering loss. Tennessee is off a bye last week but the Vols are off B2B ATS losses and also have lost 2 of 3 road games SU and ATS. Long-term Tennessee has dominated this series so, just like last season, the Wildcats are certainly looking for more payback like they got with the 34-7 win in 2020. Note that one of the Volunteers road losses was at Florida by 24 points and that is the same Gators team that UK beat by a TD as a TD underdog this season! If you look at the line on that game in fact that means the Cats would be about a 10 point dog against Florida on a neutral field while the Vols would be about a 16 point dog to the Gators on a neutral field based on the 19 that was posted at Florida. As you can see comparing the 16 to a 10 there is a 6 point variance between the Wildcats and Volunteers and plus the Cats are at home so one could argue the line should be a 9 here and yet the markets are so in love with Tennessee here that the Wildcats, after line movement, have become a dog. I'll take it! 10* KENTUCKY +1.5 |
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11-06-21 | Baylor v. TCU +7 | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
National TV Blowout - Rickenbach CFB Saturday 8* TCU Horned Frogs +7 vs Baylor Bears @ 3:30 ET - The Bears are off huge rivalry win over Texas last week in Waco. Now they go on the road to face a TCU team that has underachieved so far this season and now looks at this game as a fresh beginning without head coach Patterson. The Horned Frogs have a respectable offense and I would not be surprised to see the Bears be a little flat in this one after the big comeback win over the Longhorns last week. TCU has won 5 of the last 6 meetings and I fully expect them to get at least the cover here based on the situational edges and the fact this offense was putting up plenty of points prior to its last two games. Baylor has allowed 24 points or more in 4 of last 5 while the Horned Frogs, other than the Oklahoma and SMU games, have allowed an average of 26.3 points per in their other 6 games. Look for the home dog to surprise in this one. 8* TCU +7 |
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11-05-21 | Virginia Tech -3 v. Boston College | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
Friday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Friday 10* Top Play Virginia Tech Hokies -3 @ Boston College Eagles @ 7:30 ET - The Hokies and Eagles are both 4-4 on the season and Boston College is at home so some may be surprised to see Virginia Tech as the favorite in this one. Don't be though as the -3 should prove to be a solid bet in this one. The Hokies and Eagles have both been struggling of late but the BC offense has been a major concern and will likely be their downfall again here. The Boston College offense has been so bad that they turned to frosh Moorhead in place of Grosel last week but the offense still sputtered when he came in. The Eagles, in fact, have been held to 14 or less point in 4 straight games and now they face a Virginia Tech team that has only been shut down on offense once in last four games as they averaged 30 points per game in the other 3. On the season the Hokies also have played the tougher schedule. 10* VIRGINIA TECH -3 |
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11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts -10 | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts -10 vs New York Jets @ 8:20 ET - The Colts are off an OT loss by 3 points and Carson Wentz, after being so strong in terms of avoiding INTs this season, threw 2 picks last week. Look for Indianapolis to bounce back as they are at home again and catch the Jets off an upset win over the Bengals. There is a reason the Colts are a double digit favorite even though they are only 3-5 while the Jets are 2-6 this season. Don't let the line keep you away. Big blowout here. In true road games, not including the neutral site game in London, the Jets have lost their last two away from home by a combined score of 80 to 13. Ugly defeats on the road and now New York faces a hungry Colts team that had won 3 of 4 SU and covered 4 straight ATS prior to the loss to the Titans. Indy won last season's meeting 36 to 7 and another blowout win on tap here. 10* INDIANAPOLIS |
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11-04-21 | Georgia State v. UL-Lafayette -12 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Thursday 10* Top Play UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns -12 vs Georgia State Panthers @ 7:30 ET - Georgia State is off a big win over rival Georgia Southern and that was a road game on Saturday. That means the Panthers are on short rest after knocking off the rival Eagles and also means they are on the road for a second straight week. How good has UL Lafayette been at home? 4-0 with the last 3 of those victories being ultra impressive by a combined score of 135 to 27. That means average victory margin of 36 points per game. I know the Panthers have been a covering machine of late but this is a horrible spot for them and the Ragin Cajuns have the better defense and better offense and more balanced offense. I know the points are steep here but consider that Georgia State's four losses have been by 28.5 point average margin. Also, one of those four losses was to Appalachian State by a count of 45 to 16 and Louisiana beat that same Mountaineers team 41 to 13. Big difference! One won by 28 and the other lost by 29 points! I don't often lay big points but this is one of those spots too good to pass up. This match-up and including the situation has blowout written all over it. 10* LOUISIANA -12 |
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11-03-21 | Northern Illinois v. Kent State -3.5 | Top | 47-52 | Win | 101 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
ESPN2 Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play Kent State Golden Flashes (-) vs Northern Illinois Huskies @ 7 ET - Northern Illinois has won 10 straight games against Kent State but much of that history is dated for sure. The Huskies have regressed from where they use to be and the Golden Flashes have improved a lot from where they were. I know Northern Illinois has won 5 straight but their schedule has been more favorable than that of Kent State. The Golden Flashes have won 3 of 4 and do have the better passing offense in this game. I love the fact that the line has dropped a couple points from its opener. Extra value on the home favorite. I will take it. 10* KENT STATE -3.5 |
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11-02-21 | Miami-OH -7.5 v. Ohio | Top | 33-35 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - 10* Top Play Miami-Ohio Redhawks -7.5 @ Ohio University Bobcats @ 7:30 ET - I am aware that the Bobcats have a knack for playing close games in MAC action. Seems like they just don't lose games by more than 7 points or at least that has been a pattern now for a number of years. However, this Bobcats team is struggling badly this season and has played a weaker schedule so far this season than the Redhawks and the odds makers know what they are doing by having Miami-Ohio favored by slightly more than a TD here. The Redhawks have just 1 loss last 4 games while the Bobcats only have 1 win this entire season! Unlike typical encounters, this one will not be close and the odds makers are correct on this one while the betting markets likely to end up pounding the underdog. Contrarian spot and I love situations like these. 10* MIAMI-OHIO -7.5 |
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11-01-21 | Giants v. Chiefs -10 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
MNF Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #278 Monday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs -10 vs New York Giants @ 8:15 ET - When a good team hits rock bottom they generally respond very well in their next game. I feel that is precisely the situation we have here with the Chiefs. After losing 2 of 3 games, including an ugly 27-3 loss last week on the road, Kansas City is going to respond big at home. KC was averaging 31 points per game prior to last week's loss. The Giants, prior to a rare blowout win 25 to 3 last week, were averaging just 19 points per game on the season. I just don't expect New York to be able to keep up here on the road. Historically, the Chiefs defense is known for being much tougher at Arrowhead Stadium and they will be up for this game! Kansas City has had a rough season thus far but Patrick Mahomes and Company have reached their rock bottom and, though I am usually not fond of laying big points, I absolutely see a massive blowout brewing here! The Giants were on a 2-game losing streak by an average margin of 25.5 points prior to the win last week. The Chiefs last two wins were by an average margin of 15 points and were part of a 2-1 run prior to last week's loss. The Giants also have a long list on the injury report this week. The healthier and hungrier team gets it done in a big way in this one! 10* KANSAS CITY -10 |
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10-31-21 | Bucs v. Saints +4.5 | Top | 27-36 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Saints +4.5 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4:25 ET - I am going to challenge the Bucs to actually cover a road game! Tampa Bay continues to be a bit over-rated by the betting markets in my opinion. I know they got the huge win at home versus the Bears last week but Chicago was a turnover machine in that game! Give TB credit but now they go on the road to face a tough division rival and the Buccaneers are 0-3 ATS this season in road games. The Saints first home game this season had to be at a neutral site in Jacksonville because of hurricane damage in New Orleans. That game was a huge win for the Saints over the Packers but, since then, NO has had just one home game and they lost it to the Giants. So not only is this just their 2nd true home game of the season, New Orleans is also searching for their first win in the Superdome this season! That plus Jameis Winston going against his former team and the Saints having failed to cover only 1 time the last 9 times they have been a home dog has me grabbing the points here without hesitation. This number is a 4.5 so we get past the NFL key betting numbers of 3 and 4 as well. The Saints have covered 9 of last 13 in divisional games and Tampa Bay has failed to cover 9 of last 12 games when they have a bye week on deck. Look for Bucs to find an angry Saints team (knocked out of playoffs LY by TB in turnover-fueled loss) waiting for them in the Superdome Sunday! I expect an outright upset but will grab the points as added insurance here! 10* NEW ORLEANS +4.5 |
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10-31-21 | Steelers +4.5 v. Browns | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
Early Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 @ Cleveland Browns @ 1 ET - Revenge spot for the Steelers and they are undervalued here in my opinion. Pittsburgh not only lost at Cleveland in their final regular season game last year, the Steelers then lost at home to the Browns in the Wild Card round of the playoffs the very next week. Now of course you can not just blindly play revenge situations but I like this one a lot as Pittsburgh is off their bye week and this is a crucial game for them in the AFC North standings. The Steelers are undervalued right now because of their 1-4 ATS run and I know the Browns just beat Denver last week but the Broncos are in a major slump. Cleveland allowed 42 points per game in the two games prior to the win at Denver. Also, the Steelers are off B2B wins and starting to build momentum. Pittsburgh has covered 12 of its last 16 as a road dog. The Browns are on an 0-8 ATS run in regular season games against divisional foes. 8* PITTSBURGH +4.5 |
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10-30-21 | Penn State +19.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 24-33 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #189 Saturday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions +19.5 @ Ohio State Buckeyes @ 7:30 ET - The Nittany Lions are off back to back losses (both very tight defeats) while the Buckeyes have won 5 straight and are 6-1 on the season. That sets this one up perfectly and the points are just too much. Of course Ohio State has the much better offense in this match-up but this Penn State defense is very strong. Also, the Buckeyes recent blowout wins and strong defensive performances have been helped by facing 3rd and 4th string quarterbacks. This will be the toughest test that Ohio State has had in quite some time and I look for the Nittany Lions defense to be a difference maker in this game - at least in terms of the ATS cover. Keep in mind that Penn State was on a 3-0 ATS run as a road dog before coming up just short of the cover at Iowa earlier this season. But the Nittany Lions did lead that game 17-3 before QB Clifford went out with an injury in the eventual 3-point loss. They likely would not have lost if he did not get hurt. Also, prior to Ohio State getting the cover at Beaver Stadium last season, the Nittany Lions had covered 4 straight against the Buckeyes. These games tend to be tight hard-fought battles and I feel we are getting extra line value here because of recent results and those results certainly have been impacted by QB injury issues as noted above. So the value is now the massive underdog in this one and it is my top side play for Saturday. 10* PENN STATE +19.5 |
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10-30-21 | Texas +2.5 v. Baylor | 24-31 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 26 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #193 Saturday 8* Texas Longhorns +2.5 @ Baylor Bears @ Noon ET - Baylor is ranked and at home and has two less losses than Texas this season. However, the Bears are a very small favorite here. Looks easy, right? You know what means! Back the underdog in this one! UT has played the tougher schedule and that is part of the key here. I feel strongly that Baylor is now over-rated as a result and we'll take advantage by grabbing the Longhorns here as they get payback for losing here in Waco in their last visit in 2019. With UT off B2B losses, this is a great spot to back them! 8* TEXAS +2.5 |
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10-29-21 | Navy v. Tulsa -11 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #114 Friday 10* Top Play Tulsa Golden Hurricane -11 vs Navy Midshipmen @ 7:30 ET - I know Navy has been covering recent games and Tulsa has not but this line is set at double digits for a reason. The Midshipmen have been very fortunate to get the covers they have been getting as their offense has been really bad this season. Also, they enter this game off a hard-fought loss to Cincinnati last week. They are on short rest here as a result. Tulsa, on the other hand, is coming off a bye week. The Golden Hurricane are rested and ready here. Tulsa does enter off SU wins in 3 of their last 4 and they have also been reminded of the fact that the last time the Midshipmen paid a visit here the Golden Hurricane got blasted 45 to 17. I look for the hosts to get some payback for that one as they also are a little healthier than they were 2 weeks ago. Rested, ready, motivated are the Golden Hurricane and they are hosting a Navy team that truly left it all on the field in that hard-fought loss to the Bearcats Saturday. 10* TULSA -11 |
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10-25-21 | Saints v. Seahawks +4 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #474 Monday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks +4 vs New Orleans Saints @ 8:15 ET - Saints are 3-2 on the season and Seahawks are only 2-4 on the season. However, even though Seattle is without QB Russell Wilson, the Saints offense is certainly no longer a juggernaut since Drew Brees retired. New Orleans actually ranks near the bottom of the league this season on offense based on yardage stats. Yes the Saints do rank as the better team on defense in this match-up but Seattle is capable of stepping up big when at home and in a primetime game. We have seen it time and time again in this situation with the Seahawks. By the way, Seattle has allowed only 23 points per game last 3 games while Saints have allowed 22 points or more in 3 of last 4 games. There is just not a big disparity between these teams right now and I look for the Seahawks to give New Orleans all they can handle in this one! 2 of the Seahawks 4 losses this season have been by just a 3 point margin and we are getting more than that here. Also, the Saints are just 2-2 SU the last 4 games and the two wins were against teams that were a combined 4-8 entering this week's action. I know Seattle has some issues but the Saints offense is just not that strong and they will struggle to pull away in this game and the Seahawks bounce back from a loss to Rams in most recent home game. 0-2 SU at home this season, look for the hosts to bring forth a very strong effort on their home field in this one. 10* SEATTLE +4 |
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10-24-21 | Colts +4 v. 49ers | Top | 30-18 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
Non-Conf Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #471 Sunday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts +4 @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:20 ET - Jimmy Garoppolo back from injury for the 49ers here but how effective will he be considering the time off and the recovery from injury. At the same time, Carson Wentz is quietly putting together some impressive numbers for the Colts. The Indianapolis QB has a TD-INT ratio of 9-1. Keep in mind, prior to a rough season with a fading Eagles team last year, Wentz had compiled a TD-INT ratio of 81-21 over 3 preceding seasons. I had a strong feeling he would enjoy some success in coming to Indianapolis and working with head coach Frank Reich who was an offensive coordinator with the Eagles when they won the Super Bowl a few years and Wentz had been rock solid under Reich before he got hurt. So I am aware the Colts have a disappointing record so far this season but so too do the 49ers and I like the fact Indianapolis has now won 2 of 3 games SU and covered 4 of last 5 games ATS while the Niners are in a 0-3 SU/ATS slump. I know the 49ers are off their bye week but their final game before the break was a disappointing loss to the Cardinals in a divisional game. The 49ers only wins this season were on the road against the Eagles and Lions! I think this Colts team is better than people realize despite their record and they are starting to turn the corner. Keep in mind, Indy went 11-5 last season while San Francisco went 6-10 last year. Give me the points here as the Colts continue to turn this season around and we can fade a Niners team that is favored by more than a FG here and yet lacking in confidence. There is simply something amiss in San Francisco right now and we'll take advantage here. 10* INDIANAPOLIS +4 |
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10-24-21 | Bengals v. Ravens -6 | 41-17 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Baltimore Ravens -6 vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 1 ET - I know the Bengals have a surprisingly impressive record but a lot of their wins against weak foes. Give Cincinnati credit of course as they have still gotten the job done but the result is just that they are a little bit over-rated right now. The Ravens have beaten some stronger teams during their current run of 5 straight wins. Also, Baltimore's last 3 meetings with the Bengals have all ended up Ravens wins by a margin of 24 points or more. We only need to win this by 7 or more to cash our ticket and I like the odds being in our favor for that to happen here. The Ravens have the much better offense and are at home and Cincinnati will simply be unable to keep up in this one. 8* BALTIMORE -6 |
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10-23-21 | Utah -3 v. Oregon State | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #373 Saturday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (-) @ Oregon State Beavers @ 7:30 ET - The Utes offer line value here because they are on the road so we can lay a small number to have the better team essentially just to win this game with the line at -3. Utah has won 3 straight games and has played a slightly tougher schedule too. Oregon State is off a loss and has lost 2 of their more challenging game this season. The Beavers lost at Washington State and at Purdue and each of those defeats were by 7 or more points. Utah has won 8 of the last 11 meetings and that includes a 45 point blowout win in their last visit to Corvallis. Lay the short number here as the Beavers certainly have improved and are absolutely not the doormat of the Pac-12 that they once were but, Oregon State is still not at the level Utah is. Also, the Utes are undefeated in conference games and, as the only team in the Pac-12 able to stake that claim, they are highly motivated to stay that way. The edge the Beavers have over some Pac-12 teams in terms of being strong in the trenches and a physical team against some of the softer more finesse Pac-12 teams, they just don't have those same edges against a tough Utes team that likes to play a physical brand of football. The road team gets it done here. 10* UTAH -3 |
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10-23-21 | Clemson +3.5 v. Pittsburgh | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #343 Saturday 8* Clemson Tigers +3.5 @ Pittsburgh Panthers @ 3:30 ET - The Tigers offense, as the whole world knows, has struggled badly this season. Also, Clemson is still winless ATS on the season. However, getting them now in a range of +3 to +3.5 points now Saturday at Pittsburgh is an incredible value. The Tigers offense has made headlines for struggles but their defense has been incredibly good. Clemson allowed 27 points at NC State but, other than that, the Tigers have given up only 9.6 points per game in their other 5 games. The Tigers did not allow more than 14 points in any of those 5 games. Now let's talk about Pittsburgh. The Panthers just caught the Hokies off a tough 3-point loss to Notre Dame. So give the Panthers credit as they held Virginia Tech to just 7 points in that game but, again, it was a horrible spot for the Hokies. Prior to that game Pitt had great defensive gems against Massachusetts and New Hampshire but who wouldn't? Exactly! So, that being said, note that the Panthers allowed an average of 33 points in their other 3 games this season when they actually faced decent respectable teams. Now, consider all of the above PLUS the fact that Clemson has played a TOUGHER schedule than Pittsburgh this season! So the point is I can tell you without a shadow of a doubt who the better defense is in this match-up. Also, the Panthers are ranked and at home and this is the first time the Tigers have been an ACC dog in over a decade. Clemson is aware of all this of course. They are underdogs and they are the unranked team and the Panthers are ranked. Watch how the Tigers respond this week given all of the above. 8* CLEMSON +3.5 |
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10-20-21 | Coastal Carolina -5 v. Appalachian State | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
ESPN2 Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play Coastal Carolina Chanticleers -5 @ Appalachian State Mountaineers @ 7:30 ET - We can lay a short number here to have a team that has won nearly 20 regular season games in a row. I'll take it! Yes I know Coastal Carolina has played a weak schedule but this is essentially the same Chanticleers team we saw last season and they knocked off a pair of ranked teams last season as part of their undefeated regular season. Coastal Carolina's toughest game this season was at Buffalo and they won by just 3. However late in the game the Chanticleers had a 1st and goal and were getting ready to make the score 35 to 17 to put the game away. Then it was the one and only interception that CC has had this season and the Bulls then drove 92 yards for a 14 point swing on the scoreboard. Honestly that one turn of events is simply serving to give us great line value here. Again, it is the only INT that Coastal has this season and this is a very strong running team with a QB with a 14-1 ratio as well! They are up against an Appalachian State team that is banged up at the RB position and off a blowout loss at UL Lafayette. The Mountaineers have turnover issues and that was the case in last season's loss to Coastal Carolina as well. In summary, the Chanticleers should have beaten Buffalo by a double digit margin and every other win they have this season has been by 27 points or more. Appalachian State simply will not be able to keep up in this one. 10* COASTAL CAROLINA |
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10-18-21 | Bills v. Titans +6 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Monday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans +6 vs Buffalo Bills @ 8:15 ET - The Bills are a great team. They also have revenge on their minds here and a bye week on deck. However, lets not forget that Buffalo is off a huge playoff revenge win over Kansas City last week. Also, lets not forget that the Titans are a quality team and at home and catching as many 6.5 points here after opening as a 3.5 point dog. Buffalo is simply over-priced here especially when you consider that Tennessee is getting healthier. The Titans should have WR Julio Jones back for this game and could have WR AJ Brown back as well. Tennessee has a strong ground game and has won 3 of 4 games since an embarrassing opening week loss to a Cardinals team that remains undefeated on the season. The Titans lone loss since then was by 3 points in overtime. I see them hanging tough in this game throughout. I have a ton of respect for the Bills but the value is with the underdog here especially a home dog like this in a primetime game. As a home dog in a non-divisional match-up, the Titans have covered 6 of 8. Buffalo has been on an ATS tear dating back to last season too so they are becoming over-valued by the betting markets. Wish we could get the full +7 here but we are not quite there yet and, even so, great value with this current number at +6 as the revenge factor is being overplayed on this one. 10* TENNESSEE +6 |
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10-17-21 | Seahawks +5.5 v. Steelers | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Sunday Night Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #273 Sunday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks +5.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - Russell Wilson is out for awhile after the injury suffered to the middle finger of his throwing hand. That said, the Seahawks have decided they have no chance to win this game and have decided to forfeit the contest and may not even show up at Heinz Field tonight. I am being facetious of course about Seattle not showing up but I do find humor in the fact that no one is giving the Seahawks a chance in this game. The line has gone all the way up to as high as a 5.5 as of early morning Sunday and, keep in mind, teammates step up particularly strong in the first game after a star goes down. Wilson, of course, is a franchise player for the Seahawks and everyone - on offense as well as defense - is going to step up their game in his absence on Sunday night. Pittsburgh is off a win against an over-rated Denver team whose only 3 wins this season are against teams that are now a combined 2-13 on the season. Prior to that win the Steelers had lost 3 straight games and the only other win for Pittsburgh this season was in the season opener when they upset the Bills but were outstatted at Buffalo. Seattle has been underachieving on defense and will be fired up after the loss to the Rams. Prior to the defeat the Seahawks were only 2-2 SU but one of the losses was in OT by just 3 points. Look for a big bounce back here. In non-conference games the Seahawks have covered 6 of 9 and I am expecting a very big effort from them here as they battle hard to make up for the absence of Wilson. 10* SEATTLE +5.5 |
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10-16-21 | Rice +17.5 v. UTSA | 0-45 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB 8* Rice Owls +17.5 @ UTSA Roadrunners @ 6 ET - UTSA is starting to wear down some. I know they are still undefeated on the season but this will be their 7th game in 7 weeks and they have been on the road twice in past three weeks and had to battle hard for victories. This is a banged up Roadrunners team that is starting to tire out. The Runners should still get a win here but, keep in mind, each of their last 3 wins have been by 7 or less points. Now UTSA faces a rested Rice team that has played the tougher schedule. Granted the Owls are not a strong team but they are off back to back wins plus a week of rest so this sets up well for them to stay inside the big number posted on this one. 8* RICE +17.5 |
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10-15-21 | California v. Oregon -13.5 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #122 Friday 10* Top Play Oregon Ducks -13.5 vs California Golden Bears @ 10:30 ET - The Ducks off an OT loss preceding their bye week. Oregon will bounce back strong at home here. They are vastly superior to this Golden Bears team. Also, the Ducks lost at California last season so this is a revenge game for Oregon. The Golden Bears are off a 21-6 loss two weeks ago (also off a bye like the Ducks are) and Cal just does not have the offense to keep up in this one. The Golden Bears only scored well in 1 of their 4 games against FBS opponents this season. In the other 3 games California averaged only 16 points per game. Oregon is averaging 40 points a game in their home games this season and will pull away to win this one by a big margin as they are angry off a loss and have had extra time to think about the defeat too. This will be an angry Ducks team in front of their home fans on a Friday night and this is surely to be domination as a result against a Cal team that has only 1 win this season and it was against an FCS school. 10* OREGON -13.5 |
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10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles +7 | Top | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #110 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles +7 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:20 ET - The Eagles will be flying sky high in terms of emotions as they get a home game against the defending champion Buccaneers. Also, their defense rates higher than the Bucs in terms of overall stats as well as pressuring the QB. Philadelphia will generate some pressure against Tom Brady in this one and Tampa Bay's offense has not been as good on the road this season as they have been at home. Look for the Eagles to build off the momentum of last week's come from behind win at Carolina. That may not lead to an outright upset win but Philly should at least get the cover. TB is 0-2 ATS on the road this season and the Eagles will take advantage of what is their only home game in a 4-week span. An outright upset would not be a total surprise but definitely there is value with the points in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA +7 |
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10-14-21 | Georgia Southern v. South Alabama -3 | Top | 14-41 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
ESPNU Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #112 Thursday 10* Top Play South Alabama Jaguars -3 vs Georgia Southern Eagles @ 7:30 ET - I know the Eagles have played the tougher schedule. But I also feel strongly that the Jaguars are in an ideal bounce back spot and will respond. Why is South Alabama favored over a Georgia Southern team that has won 7 straight meetings with them? Exactly! Don't let the line fool you. The Jags are going to get it done finally and put an end to that losing streak versus the Eagles. Georgia Southern is allowing 487 yards per game while South Alabama is allowing only 311 yards per game. After blowing their game against Texas State last week and losing in 4 overtimes, I expect the Jaguars to come up big this week and respond huge. South Alabama is off back to back losses by 2 points each and will get back to winning ways here. The Eagles have lost 4 of last 5 games and their pass defense is a weakness and the strength of the Jaguars offense is the passing attack. This will help key this home win so lay the short number. 10* SOUTH ALABAMA -3 |
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10-12-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette +5 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
Sun Belt Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #108 Tuesday 10* Top Play UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns +5 vs Appalachian State Mountaineers @ 7:30 ET - Coastal Carolina is undefeated on the season and ranked #15 in the nation. What does that have to do with this play? Well, Appalachian State plays in the same division of the Sun Belt Conference along with the Chanticleers and they are hosting them next week. It is hard to imagine the Mountaineers overlooking a 4-1 UL Lafayette team but, if there was a spot for that to be the case, this is it! I like the fact that the Ragin' Cajuns lone loss came against a Texas team that showed again on Saturday (versus Oklahoma) that they have an incredible offense. Also, ULL played UT much tougher than the final score reflected. Appalachian State is a very good football team in the Sun Belt but so are the Ragin's Cajuns and this line has gone from a 3 to a 5 and is offering exceptional home dog value! ULL won last year's meeting and the year before they lost but outgained App State by nearly 100 yards! The last time the Cajuns hosted the Mountaineers they fell short and now they get some payback for that home loss Tuesday. In fact, prior to winning the match-up in December, ULL had lost 8 straight meetings with Appalachian State. Suffice to say some home payback is still on order! As a dog, the Ragin Cajuns have only lost the money 4 times the last 14 games when getting points! 10* UL-LAFAYETTE +5 |
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10-11-21 | Colts +7.5 v. Ravens | Top | 25-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #479 Monday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Baltimore Ravens @ 8:15 ET - The Ravens are a high-quality team for sure but the Colts are better than their record and I feel we have excellent line value here. Keep in mind Baltimore faced KC, LV, Detroit and Denver. The Ravens beat the Chiefs but KC is now 2-3 on the season and their defense has been poor. Baltimore lost to the Raiders in OT and Las Vegas also now off B2B losses and starting to disappoint. The Broncos are also 3-2 and padded their record with 3 wins against bad teams to start the season. As for the Lions, though they fight hard they are still 0-5 SU on the season. The points is that I am certainly not convinced that the Ravens should be a 7.5 point favorite over this solid Colts team. Baltimore has 2 wins that came by a total margin of just 3 points. They could easily be 1-3 on the season! As for the Colts they have faced Rams and Titans teams that are a combined 7-3 on the season. Indianapolis off a win at Miami last week and statistically have the better defense in comparison with the Ravens. That said, I look for the Colts to have a great shot at the outright upset here and, if they do fall short, I certainly expect it to be by just a 1-score margin. 10* INDIANAPOLIS +7.5 |
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10-10-21 | Bills +3 v. Chiefs | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 7 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Buffalo Bills +3 @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - This is a double revenge spot for the Bills as they lost at home to KC in the regular season last year and then got knocked out of the playoffs here in Kansas City in January. I know the Chiefs are still a very solid football team, particularly on offense. But, I do not like what I have seen from the KC defense this season. Additionally, the Bills defense is very strong and I feel we have a solid edge in that regard here in addition to a huge motivational edge for Buffalo in this one. Kansas City is allowing more than double the yardage that the Bills defense is this season! I know KC has faced the tougher schedule this season but still this Chiefs team just not seem as dominant as what we have seen from them in recent seasons. Buffalo is rolling right now off 3 straight dominating wins and I know they faced weaker foes but they could easily be 4-0 this season as they outstatted the Steelers significantly in week one. The Bills are allowing 11 points per game this season while the Chiefs are allowing 31 points per game. You also know that the visitors have had this game circled on their calendar ever since the schedule came out. I do not expect them to be denied here but will grab the 3 points in case they do fall just short of the outright win. 8* BUFFALO +3 |
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10-10-21 | Giants +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-44 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 60 m | Show |
NFC East Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New York Giants +7 @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS this season and, as a result, are over-rated right now. The Giants are known for playing them very tough and this is a real tough spot for Dallas to cover in my opinion. New York is only 1-3 this season SU but get at least a little confidence back as they are coming off a win plus their two games prior to that were each losses but only by a combined 4 points. If you look at the stats of these two teams they are not very different but the betting masses are not seeing that. What the betting masses are seeing is a Dallas team that is 4-0 both SU and ATS on the season and also a Giants team that was 0-3 SU prior to notching their first win of the season last week. What generally happens in NFL betting in cases like this is that facing the market perception is your best bet and that is absolutely what I am going to do here. I am grabbing the generous points being offered here for my top side play of the day. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS +7 |
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10-10-21 | Broncos v. Steelers +2 | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 3 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers +2 vs Denver Broncos @ 1 ET - I successfully faded an over-rated Denver team last week with the Ravens and am hoping for the same result here with the Steelers. Yes the Broncos are 3-1 SU / ATS on the season while Pittsburgh has underachieved and is 1-3 SU / ATS but I feel this is helping to give us line value here. Denver's wins were all against weaker foes and then they struggled at home against a solid Baltimore ream. The Steelers have had issues this season no doubt but they are still a tough team to face and this is particularly true at home and the Broncos have a huge divisional game on deck with Las Vegas. Look for Denver to be a bit beat up after going to war with a physical Ravens team last week and the hungry home team takes care of business here. 8* PITTSBURGH +2 |
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10-09-21 | UTSA v. Western Kentucky -3 | Top | 52-46 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #394 Saturday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -3 vs UTSA Roadrunners @ 7 ET - I have been waiting for the right spot to fade UTSA and I believe we have that right here! Long-time followers know I am a contrarian and so it will not surprise you to see me making this bet. Western Kentucky is 1-3 this season while UTSA is 5-0 plus the Roadrunners have the much better numbers on defense and yet the Hilltoppers are favored. Looks funny does it not? Of course it does and you know that a situation like this is screaming "trap line" and I love the home team in this spot. UTSA has played the much weaker schedule and their luck runs out here. They had a dramatic come from behind victory at Memphis two weeks ago which was a game the Tigers gave away and had no business losing. Then last week the Runners barely got past a bad UNLV team. Now the Roadrunners are on the road and facing a Western Kentucky team that has played the tougher schedule and also is averaging over 500 yards of offense per game. The Hilltoppers defense is certainly not a strength but they will step up here at home in what is their first conference game of the season. On the other side of the field I just do not see UTSA as being able to get enough stops against the potent WKU offense. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY -3 |
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10-09-21 | Georgia v. Auburn +15 | 34-10 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #358 Saturday 8* Auburn Tigers +15 vs Georgia Bulldogs @ 3:30 ET - Of course I have plenty of respect for the #2 team in the nation but this is just too many points in my opinion. Auburn has a lot of momentum after rallying for the win at LSU last week and have won 4 of 5 games this season. The Tigers lone loss was a game where they actually played Penn State very well in a game that, as the stats show, could have gone either way and that was on the road. At home for this battle, I look for Auburn to come up big against a very tough Georgia team. Keep in mind, the Bulldogs only other true road game was at Vanderbilt and so this is going to be first tough road test of the season for Georgia. The Bulldogs impressive win over Clemson earlier this season was a neutral site game and also has become less impressive because of the way Clemson has been underachieving this season. Just like that game, look for these Tigers to also put up quite a fight before ultimately falling short by just a single score. I like the value here as even a 2TD loss would still cash our ticket and I look for this to be tight throughout. The Tigers defense is quite good and the offense growing with confidence after sorting some things out at the QB spot. Grab the generous points being offered to the home dog as this one was a major mover from the early lines this season. Value! 8* AUBURN +15 |
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10-04-21 | Raiders +3 v. Chargers | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Monday 10* Top Play Las Vegas Raiders (+) @ Los Angeles Chargers @ 8:15 ET - The Raiders much-maligned defense was really bad last season but they are a little better this season. Statistically, based on yardage allowed, they are right about even with the Chargers. That said, I like the fact that Las Vegas does have the more potent offense and, sitting undefeated on the season, they are playing with a ton of confidence right now. I am not sold on this Chargers team. They are off to a good start this season as well but they faced two NFC East teams to start the season and then faced a Chiefs team that handed them the game on turnovers. Give Los Angeles some credit for sure but I am just saying they might be slightly over-rated at this early juncture in the season. The Raiders faced a strong Baltimore team, impressed with a road win in eastern time zone, and then suffered no letdown last week when they defeated Miami. Getting the 3 points is a strong value here as the Raiders potent offense insures their ability to stay in this game all the way through and I sense a road upset. Note that the road team has won each of the last 3 meetings between these teams. I don't see that changing here but will grab the points as added insurance. I know Chargers QB Justin Herbert is not on the injury report for this game but he did have his throwing hand iced and bandaged after the game at Kansas City last week. Perhaps a little bit of an issue for him in this game and, either way, I like the road dog that has shown a knack for finding a way in tight games this season. Give me the points. 10* LAS VEGAS +3 |
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10-03-21 | Ravens v. Broncos | Top | 23-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens PICK'EM @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET - I know the Chiefs are just 1-2 this season but Kansas City is still a very good football team. What does that have to do with this play? Kansas City is one of the teams the Ravens beat and the Chiefs were in the Super Bowl (again!) last season! As for Baltimore's lone loss it came in OT and in a very tough setting at Las Vegas in Week 1 when the Raiders finally were able to have a stadium full of fans and it showed. Also, LV is now 3-0 on the season. Speaking of 3-0 records, so too are the Broncos. However, let me know when they play somebody meaningful! Actually, that is happening this week and that is the point! The Broncos are highly over-rated right now in my opinion because they are undefeated this season but they have played 3 teams that are now a combined 0-10 on the season! Denver has faced the Jaguars, Giants, and Jets! Now the Broncos finally face a tough football team and I do not expect this to go well at all for them. The fact the Ravens are on the road for this one is even better for us because the line is a pick'em as a result. If the game was in Baltimore that means we would likely be laying 6 or 7 points in this one which I would still recommend but I much prefer this situation. The Ravens are riding the positive emotion of a dramatic last-second win last week and they come to Denver and take care of business in this one. The Broncos finally face a real challenge and that changes everything. 10* BALTIMORE PICK'EM |
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10-03-21 | Chiefs -6.5 v. Eagles | 42-30 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Sunday 8* Kansas City Chiefs (-) @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 1 ET - The Chiefs are offering a lot of line value here because they are on a long ATS slump. I know that might make it enticing to play on the streak here but this Eagles team is starting to show its true colors. They won in Week 1 but that was against a bad Falcons team. Philly then lost at home to the Niners and then got blasted at Dallas on Monday Night. This is a short week of prep for the Eagles and they face former head coach Andy Reid and the Chiefs are angry off back to back losses. They suffered a late game loss at Baltimore and then lost to Chargers because of a 4-0 turnover deficit. Kansas City is much better than they have shown of course. The Chiefs have faced 3 teams that are all 2-1 on the season and playing quite well early on. That said I feel we have good value in going against an Eagles team that fell apart last season and is going to take some time to rebuild. The Chiefs are annual super bowl contenders while the Eagles are now in rebuild mode. We are only having to lay less than a TD here because of the bad ATS streak for KC and, that being said, this looks like the perfect spot to pound them. 8* KANSAS CITY -6.5 |
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10-02-21 | Auburn +3 v. LSU | Top | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB 10* Top Play Auburn Tigers (+) @ LSU Tigers @ 9 ET - I lost a lot of respect for this LSU team when they lost at UCLA early in the season. I know they ended up getting the win last week against Mississippi State but LSU was outgained in that game and it was a very fortunate win. So the Bruins and the Bulldogs were the only two tough games that LSU has had this season and they should have lost both games. I am well aware of the fact that Auburn lost their big game at Penn State earlier this season but that was a strong game from them! The stats were roughly equal in that game and Auburn is a perfect 3-0 on the season and could very easily be 4-0. Of course LSU is out for revenge after getting blasted by Auburn last season but revenge tends to be over-played. The fact is Auburn is the much better defense in this match-up and, on offense, has the vastly superior ground attack. I love taking road underdogs that play solid defense and can run the ball on offense. I know this is a night game in Baton Rouge and being played with revenge, etc. but this is not the same level of LSU teams we have seen in the past. I feel we have excellent line value here with the road team getting a full field goal. I also like the fact that QB Finley is a former LSU players and if Nix plays I also look to him be better after being benched last week. That was a wakeup call for him and this is a well-coached Auburn team capable of punching LSU in the mouth all night long. 10* AUBURN +3 |
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10-01-21 | Iowa v. Maryland +3.5 | Top | 51-14 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
Reichenator Rout - Rickenbach CFB Friday 10* Top Play Maryland Terrapins +3.5 vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ 8 ET - When a team is favored by a field goal it is not quite the same as being a pick'em but the point is most games are decided by 3 or more points in football. The reason I mention that here is because I find it quite interesting that a team ranked #5 in the nation is favored by such a small number here. That said, the public is likely to be enticed to play Iowa here. Don't be fooled by this line! Yes, the Hawkeyes have played the tougher schedule so far this season but do not underestimate these Terrapins. They are undefeated on the season, just like Iowa, and statistically their defense has not been that far behind that of the Hawkeyes. The key statistical variance in looking at these two teams is actually on the other side of the ball where Maryland has been the much stronger team. The Terrapins offense, based on yardage, ranks among the best in the nation while the Hawkeyes offense production ranks among the worst. Iowa does hold the defensive edge but I am expecting a big game from Tagovailoa here and the QB helps lead the way to a home win in this one. If they do fall short I expect it to be by the slimmest of margins so I am grabbing the points here. 10* MARYLAND +3.5 |
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09-30-21 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Bengals | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:20 ET - The Bengals are 2-1 on the season plus at home and they are facing a winless Jacksonville team. This should be easy, right? Absolute blowout for the home team, right? No not at all! In fact I would not be surprised to see this one result in an outright upset for the underdog but I am grabbing the generous points being offered. The Jaguars are 0-3 but there are only five 3-0 teams in the league at this point in the season and Jacksonville faced two of them. Conversely, the Bengals have faced three teams that all have losing records now at this point in the season. Also, Cincinnati's win over the Vikings in Week 1 was a fortunate one and it took OT to get it. Also, the Bengals win last week at Pittsburgh was driven by turnovers. The Steelers actually outgained Cincinnati in that game. As you can see, big value with the underdog in this one and it is a big of a hidden value which is what makes it even better as I expect the line to stay in the 7.5 or 8 range and, keep in mind, this line had opened up at a 6.5 which was for a reason as I like to say! 10* JACKSONVILLE +7.5 |
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09-30-21 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -5.5 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Reichenator Rout - Rickenbach CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Miami Hurricanes -5.5 vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 7:30 ET - The Hurricanes are playing their first ACC game while this is the 3rd one for the Cavaliers. However, I expect this actually to work to Miami's edge in this case. That's because Virginia is 0-2 in ACC action already and the handwriting is on the wall early for them this season. As for the Canes, they are expected to perform well in the ACC this season and enter this one at 0-0 with everything in front of them. Yes, they have two non-conference losses but they were to Michigan State and Alabama - a pair of 4-0 teams. Note that Miami just thrashed an FCS school last week which is a big confidence boost heading into this game. Also, D'Eriq King should be back after sitting that one out and his shoulder has improved. He was solid on the ground and through the air when the Canes beat a solid Appalachian State team a few weeks ago. I feel we are getting good value here with the better team and the home team and we get that value because they have two losses but to two undefeated teams. The Cavs defense has simply been atrocious this season and the Canes better defense at home will be the difference maker here even if King did not play or was limited but I do not expect any issues with that here. Either way, 10* MIAMI -5.5 |