Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-20-19 | Kent State v. Utah State -6.5 | Top | 51-41 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #204 Friday 10* Top Play Utah State Aggies (-) vs Kent State Golden Flashes @ 7:30 ET in Frisco Bowl @ Arlington Stadium in Frisco, TX - Give Kent State credit for getting here but they were fortunate to say the least. It wasn't that long ago that the Golden Flashes sat at 3-6 on the season and they were trailing 27 to 6 against Buffalo before a fantastic rally (or collapse by the Bulls!) saw Kent State rally for a miracle win. Without that win Kent State wouldn't even be here and I feel strongly they are outclassed here and are going to get steamrolled. Aggies QB Jordan Love will be entering the 2020 NFL draft and he is about to put on a show here on Friday night. Love had a great 2018 season with a 32-6 ratio. This season his ratio is 19-17 so he had a big dropoff to say the least. Now, against a MAC defense that is one of the worst in the nation in pass defense efficiency and that also generated just 21 sacks on the year, is about to be picked apart! The Golden Flashes can't just focus on the run either. That's because Utah State has a very capable ground game and, by the way, Kent State allowed 249 rushing yards per game this season. This is a sizable mismatch and the fact the line was up near 10 was more in line with where it should be as this one will be a blowout by a double digit margin. The fact this line fallen below a 7 means superb value with the favorite and I won't hesitate to go to my highest rating in this one. 10* UTAH STATE |
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12-16-19 | Colts +10 v. Saints | Top | 7-34 | Loss | -122 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Monday Night Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #333 Monday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 8:15 ET - Both teams are off tight losses last week but the Saints are off an absolute war against the 49ers. In fact New Orleans did lose key players to injury including two starters on the defensive line both out for this game and likely for the season as well. While the Saints have already locked up their division and a playoff spot plus lost their best chance at home field edges in the post-season by losing to San Francisco last week, the Colts are fighting for their playoff lives. They should renewed spirits too as the Steelers loss to the Bills last night was good news for Indianapolis. Both Pittsburgh and Tennessee are 8-6 on the season and the Colts can move to 7-7 on the year with a win here. That would put them 1 game back of the other two teams fighting for the last wild card spot and this is with two games to go. Now I am not forecasting the outright upset here but I do feel the points being offered are very generous given the situation. Both teams are struggling on defense but those D-line injuries for the Saints move the needle a lit bit in favor of the Colts defense here. Also, the Indy offense could get a boost with TY Hilton returning at wide receiver tonight. I know that is not a certainty and the Colts are being coy about it but I am expect him not to miss a game like this. Tonight is Indy's season essentially. Of course I respect Drew Brees and the Saints offense tremendously but Indianapolis head coach Frank Reich is a great coach and will have his guys ready here. The Colts have 7 losses on the season but only ONE by more than 7 points! The Saints have 10 wins this season but only TWO by a double digit margin! I like the odds here in favor of a tight finish in this game. Look for this one to be decided by a single possession on the scoreboard. 10* INDIANAPOLIS |
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12-15-19 | Bills +1 v. Steelers | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
Sunday Night Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #321 Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (+) @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - The Steelers have won 7 of 8 games with the lone loss coming at Cleveland. However, many of those wins have been against bad teams. In fact the only team that Pittsburgh has beaten this season that currently has a winning record is the LA Rams. Note that the Steelers lost to high-quality teams like the Patriots, 49ers, Ravens and Seahawks. That said, with a 1-4 record against winning teams, the Steelers are in trouble here against a surging Bills team. I know Buffalo fell just short versus the Ravens last week but this is a very strong team that also has traveled well this season. The Bills are 5-1 SU in road games on the year. One certainly could question Buffalo's schedule as well but I like the fact that they played the Ravens very tough and also lost by just 6 to New England earlier this season when the Patriots offense was firing on all cylinders but the Bills defense stifled them. The Bills also did defeat the Titans at Tennessee. Of course this is a key battle in the playoff race and I feel the QB edge for the Bills here will prove to be huge. While the Steelers have been bouncing between Rudolph and Hodges at QB since Roethlisberger went out with injury, the Bills are set with Josh Allen under center. Allen has been even stronger on the road than at home this season. Away from home he has averaged 246.5 passing yards per game. Also, he has a 7-1 TD-INT ration in his last 5 road games. The Bills have the much better rushing offense in this match-up and that will help open up the passing attack for Buffalo downfield. The Bills have NOT had an ATS loss in any of their past 9 road games! Look for the Bills to improve to 4-0 ATS this season when off a SU loss. Pittsburgh, when they enter a game after having won 8 or more of last 10 games, has gone 1-6 ATS. Look for that trend to continue here as they are over-valued and the public money is pouring in on the Steelers. The sharp money, and ours, is on the other side! 10* BUFFALO |
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12-15-19 | Texans +3 v. Titans | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #313 Sunday 8* Houston Texans (+) @ Tennessee Titans @ 1 ET - Titans off a big win on the West Coast at Oakland. Coming back east after a trip out west is not the easiest trip to make for sure. Making matters even more challenging for Tennessee in this one is the fact that they're facing an angry Texans team here. It took Houston awhile to wake up in last week's game versus Denver (perhaps the Texans were looking ahead to this showdown) and, by the time they did get going, it was far too late. I like having the +3 on my side with the road dog in this one! Houston blasted the Titans in their second meeting last season and that makes this a revenge game for Tennessee. With the Texans off an ugly loss, note this stat entering this season for coach Bill O'Brien: 11-2 ATS when his team is off a SU/ATS loss and facing an opponent playing with revenge. Of course that system fits perfectly here and Houston is fired up after losing by double digits as a nearly double digit favorite last week! It was ugly! In the 4th quarter of a season (Games 13 through 16), Tennessee is 1-10 ATS when they enter a game off consecutive SU wins and are facing a team that is off a non-divisional game. Also, when the Titans are at home in divisional action and off a game in which they scored more than 35 points, they are 1-8 ATS! The above angles combine for a 29-4 ATS spot in favor of the Texans. I'll take it! 8* HOUSTON |
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12-09-19 | Giants v. Eagles -8.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #160 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs New York Giants @ 8:15 ET - The Eagles have won 5 straight games against the Giants. Also, in games played in Philadelphia they have won 7 straight games against New York. The Eagles are 4-1 in Monday Night games under head coach Doug Pederson. The Giants enter this game having lost 8 in a row and now have to go back to Eli Manning at QB as rookie QB Daniel Jones is injured. Manning struggled badly early this season and that is why New York turned to Jones and a look at the future. Of course Manning and company would love to play the role of spoiler here but he is likely to be rusty seeing his first game action since September and Philly enters this game angry and with plenty of motivation. Philadelphia has lost 3 straight games but keep in mind two of those defeats came against a pair of teams (Patriots and Seahawks) that entered this weeks's action with identical 10-2 records on the season. The loss to the Dolphins last week was, however, inexcusable and I expect the Eagles defense to stand up strong after that horrific effort at Miami. Note that Philadelphia is 10-1 ATS when they are off a SU loss as a non-divisional favorite and now facing a divisional foe that is off a SU loss. Of course with the Eagles ugly loss as a big favorite at Miami coupled with the Giants 8th straight SU loss last week, that 91% system fits perfectly here. The Eagles were a double digit favorite last week and lost outright to the Dolphins as Miami hung 37 points on them. That is noteworthy here as the Giants are 2-12 ATS when they face a divisional foe that is off an ATS loss by a double digit margin in a game in which they allowed more than 35 points. As you can see here we have a pair of systems combining for 22-3 (88%) ATS mark favoring the Eagles and going against New York. The points are big but Philly can tie Dallas for 1st place in the NFC East with a win here (and they face the Cowboys in two weeks too) so the highly motivated Eagles are very likely to dominate the hapless Giants here. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-08-19 | Seahawks v. Rams +1 | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #158 Sunday 8* Los Angeles Rams (+) vs Seattle Seahawks @ 8:20 ET - The Rams and Seahawks met earlier this season in Seattle and the line was nearly identical to today's line. What that means today is that we're getting some fantastic value considering this game is being played at Los Angeles. The line should have swung at least 6 points considering the 3 points (at least) of value given to teams based on home field. Of course the reason the line did not move at all is because the Seahawks are undefeated on the road this season and everyone is enamored with Seattle right now while a lot of people are very down on the Rams this season because they have had ups and downs. The result in a spot like this is superb value and I won't hesitate to get involved here. The Seahawks did have a very impressive road win at San Francisco in OT this season but the other 5 wins have come against teams with a combined record of 23-36-1 on the season. The Rams have some swagger back after the blowout road win at Arizona last week. Also, Los Angeles has faced a very tough home slate as 4 of their 5 games thus far in LA have been against teams with a combined record of 37-12! The result here is that the Rams are perceived to be a weaker team than they really are. The fact is that their schedule has been brutal and they could finish the season very strong and still make the playoffs. They have their work cut out for them but a win here is critical to keeping the hopes alive. After falling just short at Seattle by a single point in the first meeting, look for them to get revenge here. The Rams strength on offense is the passing attack and the Seahawks are one of the worst teams in the league defending the pass. Look for the LA aerial attack to key the victory in this NFC West showdown. The Rams have the rest edge here too since the Seahawks played on Monday night. 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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12-08-19 | Ravens v. Bills +6.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #132 Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (+) vs Baltimore Ravens @ 1 ET - The Bills have the home field edge here plus the rest edge here as they played Thanksgiving Day at Dallas. The Ravens are off a physical battle with the 49ers Sunday in Baltimore and now must go on the road knowing they have a short week ahead too as their next game is Thursday! This is a really tough spot for the Ravens and I am happy to grab the Bills catching nearly a full +7 here as a home dog. Buffalo has played very well this season and they also have had this game circled after the Ravens introduced them to the 2018 season with a 47-3 beating at Baltimore last September. Buffalo would like a little payback at home in this one. Baltimore is 10-2 on the season but, keep in mind, the Bills are 9-3 on the season and two of Buffalo's 3 losses have come by 6 or less points. The Ravens certainly have been red hot but note that the Bills are 3-0 SU and ATS their last 3 games. Baltimore is 1-9 ATS the last 10 times they have faced a non-division opponent off B2B SU/ATS wins. That system fits in this one and I look for the home dog Bills to cash in here. They have a great shot at the outright upset and if they do fall short I expect it to be by a field goal or less. 10* BUFFALO |
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12-07-19 | Georgia +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Power Five Top Play - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #117 Saturday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs (+) vs LSU Tigers in SEC Championship Game @ Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA @ 4 ET - LSU opened up around a 3 point favorite in this game and now the line has been driven up to the Tigers becoming a 7 point choice in this match-up. It makes sense because offense is what grabs the public's attention but it is the Bulldogs edge on defense that I feel gives the underdog a significant edge in this one. Georgia is a 7 point dog here and, keep in mind, this is a team that has NOT allowed more than 17 points in regulation time of ANY game this ENTIRE season! I know the Tigers offense has been fantastic this season but lets not discount what the Bulldogs defense is capable of here. Last year Georgia lost badly to LSU but that was a turnover-driven defeat plus this year's Bulldog's defense is way ahead of last year's D. The Dawgs are allowing an average of only 10 points per game this season! Note that LSU has allowed 28 points or more in FIVE games this season! Also, in games played away from home, the Tigers allowed 37 points or more in FOUR of FIVE games! Their offense is great but those are scary numbers for the LSU defense when they are away from home. Look for Georgia to take advantage and I would not be surprised to see the Bulldogs get the upset here and certainly they are in line for the cover. The Bulldogs are on a 7-1 ATS run in neutral site games. The Tigers are on a 1-4 ATS run when they enter a game off a 2-game homestand. The LSU defense has not traveled well this season and I look for that trend to reach 1-5 ATS when the final gun sounds on this one! 10* GEORGIA |
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12-07-19 | Cincinnati +9.5 v. Memphis | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #113 Saturday 8* Cincinnati Bearcats (+) @ Memphis Tigers in AAC Championship Game @ 3:30 ET - The Bearcats rested QB Desmond Ridder in last week's game against Memphis because the contest had no bearing on anything for Cincinnati. I am well aware of the fact Ridder has been struggling but he had been hurt too. This was effecting his play. He could have played last week but the Cats held him out to make sure he could heal up even more for this game. That means he is essentially coming off a bye week and that is certainly noteworthy. Ridder has thrown for 5 TDs against just 2 INTs plus run for 169 yards and 8 yards per carry in the two games he has played this season when coming off a bye week. Look for fresh legs and arm from Ridder in this one but also note that back-up QB Ben Bryant got some valuable work in last week's game against the Tigers. The Cincy offense is in good shape here and in terms of comparing the two defenses, the Bearcats certainly hold the edge. Prior to last week's loss (again a meaningless game for Cincinnati) the Cats defense has allowed an average of just 18 points per game over 9 preceding games. The Tigers defense, prior to a win over South Florida and then last week's game which meant nothing to Cincy, had allowed 33 points per game their 6 preceding games. The Bearcats are going to be tough for the Tigers to defeat here, let alone cover the large spread! The Cats are 10-2 this season with the only losses coming to powerful Ohio State and then last week's meaningless game against this same Memphis team. I am grabbing the big points here. 8* CINCINNATI |
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12-06-19 | Oregon +7 v. Utah | Top | 37-15 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #103 Friday 10* Top Play Oregon Ducks (+) vs Utah Utes @ 8 ET in Pac-12 Championship Game @ Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA - Waiting has paid off as this line is now a 7. Keep in mind the very first line that popped on this game globally was a 2.5 and we have seen major movement ever since. Now that it has reached all the way up to a +7 it is "go time" for me with this one. The Utes have covered 8 straight games ATS and so of course they are attracting a ton of attention here. However, not enough respect is being given to an Oregon team that is having a great season too. Utah does rate the edge on defense but, keep in mind, the Ducks are at least as good, if not better, on the offensive side of the ball. Also, Oregon has the special teams edge in this match-up. The weather is not going to be great for this game with windy conditions and rain moving into the area. A lot of times that favors an underdog. Keep in mind a favorite has to not only win the game but build a margin to cash in at the window. It becomes much tougher to build a margin when you're also batting the elements. The Ducks hold the special teams edge and the kicking and punting game can become critical in a game like this where weather comes into play. I would not be surprised to see Oregon get the upset win and the fact we are not able to get +7 with the Ducks is of course a key with this game now reaching that key number as of mid-morning Friday. Oregon is 10-2 SU this season and the two losses came by 6 or less points. The pressure is on the Utes here. They still have hopes of making the CFB playoff and a huge win here is required. The Ducks are playing this game with no pressure on them. That makes a huge difference. Also, in the only two tough games that Utah has played away from home this season they beat Washington by just 5 points and they lost at USC by 7 points. Are they really going to travel outside of Utah here and beat a high quality Oregon program by more than 7 points in tough weather conditions in a game in which all the pressure is on the Utes as well? I highly doubt that. The Ducks are 5-1 SU and 4-1 ATS this season when off a home win. The Utes are a long-term 1-3 ATS as a neutral field fave in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. Utah beat Oregon last year but head coach Kyle Whittingham entered that game with a career record of 1-5 SU against the Ducks and it is payback time here. Oregon had been undefeated in Pac-12 action before their loss to Arizona State two weeks ago. That said, it is not surprising that they followed up that loss with a lackluster and sloppy effort against Oregon State last week. They turned the ball over 4 times and it was an ugly game in which the Ducks were actually even a bit fortunate to win the game by 14 points. While the Utes have already played their best football of the season, don't be surprised if that is what we now see from the Ducks in this one and I would not be surprised at all to see an upset in this game but certainly am happy to grab the 7 points as added insurance here. 10* OREGON |
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12-05-19 | Cowboys v. Bears +3 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 105 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #102 Thursday 10* Top Play Chicago Bears (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - The Cowboys have lost 3 of their past 4 games. The Bears have won 3 of their past 4 games. Chicago is also on a 10-5 ATS run in its last 15 home games. We're down to the clutch time of the season...the final quarter...the final 4 games of the regular season. Dallas, in Games 13 through 16 of a season, has gone 1-13 ATS when off a SU/ATS non-divisional loss and facing a team playing with revenge. Keep in mind, the Cowboys lost outright as a favorite to the Bills on Thanksgiving and also the Bears have revenge from the most recent meeting between these teams in 2016 so that system is fully in play here. Also, in the final quarter of a season, the Cowboys are 2-13 ATS when they have a losing record and are playing on the road. Now I know Dallas is at .500 on the season but the point is that you can see from that stat that the Cowboys aren't known for being stalwarts when having a mediocre or losing season and playing on the road late in the season. The Bears certainly hold the momentum edge here with wins in 3 of 4 while Dallas has losses in 3 of 4. Chicago is 7-1 ATS when off B2B SU wins and facing an NFC opponent. The Bears have held 5 of 6 opponents to 17 points or less at Soldier Field this season. The Cowboys have allowed 18 points or more in 4 of their 6 road games this season. I understand why Dallas is favored as market perception carries a lot of weight with the betting masses but I expect the Bears to win this outright and will gladly grab the added insurance of having them plus a field goal as a home dog here. 10* CHICAGO |
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12-02-19 | Vikings +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #475 Monday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:15 ET - Something seems a little "off" with this one at first glance and that is why the public is hammering Seattle but, in typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side here. The Seahawks opened up as a 1.5 point favorite even though there are a number of factors that would have suggested they should be a much bigger favorite at home. Sure enough the betting markets have pushed the line on Seattle to as high as a -3 but don't be fooled by all this. The odds makers set the line this way for a reason. I am aware that the Vikings have a recent history of struggling after bye weeks and Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins often struggles in night games. However, this line was set like this for a reason and I am backing the Vikings here. Keep in mind, the Seahawks are only 3-2 SU at home this season and one of the wins came in OT while the other two victories each came by just a single point! What that means is that in ALL 5 home games this season, when the clock hit zeroes in regulation, Seattle has NEVER been on top by more than ONE point! As for the Vikings, they are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games and the only loss came by just 3 points. Also, 4 of those 7 games were on the road. Now you understand the line a little better and also you can see the reasoning as to why I am going with a top play here on the road dog plus the points! 10* MINNESOTA |
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12-01-19 | Patriots v. Texans +3.5 | 22-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #474 Sunday 8* Houston Texans (+) vs New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - The Patriots don't lose often but, when they do, it tends to be on the road and facing a tough team. This one fits the bill in that regard and I like having the Texans getting +3.5 here as a home dog. Houston is 4-1 SU this season at home and this looks like a great spot for a struggling Patriots offense to not be able to do enough to get the road cover. The Texans should be able to put enough points on the board here to outscore the slumbering Pats offense. New England has scored an average of just 16.7 points per game their last 3 games. The NE defense has allowed 23.5 points per game in their past two road games. The Texans have averaged scoring 33.3 points per game in their last 3 games played in Houston. In Texans games played at home or a neutral site (London), their defense has allowed an average of just 17.3 points per game. Houston won last week against Indianapolis SU but it was an ATS loss. When the Texans are off a non-covering SU win they are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS the next week. After falling just short for their backers last week, look for the Texans to make up for that here and improve the aforementioned marks to 5-0 SU and ATS. Again, I know it is always tough to go against Belichick and Brady and the Patriots but this the right time and place to do just that. 8* HOUSTON |
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12-01-19 | Rams -2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #467 Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (-) @ Arizona Cardinals @ 4:05 ET - QB Jared Goff has struggled badly in recent games but this has included facing tough defenses like the Ravens, Bears, Steelers and what started all this was a nightmare game against the tough defense of the Niners. Mixed into this stretch was a game against the Bengals and, of course, Goff took advantage of that. The point is that level of competition is an important factor when evaluating performance and I look for Goff (and the Rams) to get back up off the mat in a big way in this game. Yes LA is on the road for this one and on a short week but a road trip from Los Angeles to Arizona is not much of a road trip at all! The Cardinals are off their bye week but QB Kyler Murray is still bothered by a hamstring injury. The Cards are better this season than they've been in recent seasons but this is still an Arizona team that has won just 3 of its 11 games this season and that has been blasted by the Rams in recent meetings. Los Angeles has won the last 4 meetings by a combined score of 130 to 25. Keep in mind, LA is in an angry mood too after being embarrassed by Baltimore on Monday night football. In other words, they are not going to let up here and I look for a huge road win and will gladly take advantage of the line move here which has pushed the Rams down to as low as a 2.5 point favorite in this one. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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12-01-19 | Browns v. Steelers +2.5 | 13-20 | Win | 101 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #472 Sunday 8* Pittsburgh Steelers (+) vs Cleveland Browns @ 1 ET - With the injuries the Steelers have heading into this week plus the switch from Rudolph to Hodges at QB, the whole world is jumping on Cleveland in this one. I'll gladly play contrarian here and grab the extra value now being offered to Pittsburgh in this divisional match-up. Watch the Steelers respond to the QB move this week as everyone ups their game on both sides of the ball. You often see this when a QB switch happens and let us not forget that Pittsburgh is at home for this game. The Steelers tend to play tougher at home and this is a defense that has allowed an average of just 15.9 points per game their past 8 games. Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU at home this season their two losses as a host came by a TOTAL of just 5 points with one coming in OT against the Ravens. This is a revenge game for the Steelers after losing at Cleveland two weeks ago. Payback time here and I'll gladly grab the points with a team that is very tough to beat at home. 8* PITTSBURGH |
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11-30-19 | Wisconsin -2.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
Rickenbach CFB Rotation #371 Saturday 10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers (-) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 3:30 ET - Minnesota is ranked higher than the Badgers and plus they have home field for this game and yet Wisconsin is favored. Must be some type of egregious mistake by the odds makers, right? You guys know how I feel about supposed "mistakes" in the marketplace. The fact is that Wisconsin is the better team and they will win the Big Ten West by getting revenge in this game for last year's loss to the Golden Gophers. Keep in mind the Badgers had beaten Minny 14 times in a row prior to last year's loss. Wisconsin has played the much tougher schedule this season and the odds makers recognize that and it is factored into this line but the betting markets are a little behind the power curve here and don't really realize that. The result is value for us here especially with the weather conditions likely limiting the only edge (passing game) that the Golden Gophers might have had in this game. The only tough win that Minnesota has is over Penn State and the Nittany Lions are proving that they are a bit over-rated. The Gophers lost to Iowa in their only other real challenge this season. As for the Badgers, they've had to battle with Ohio State, Michigan, and Iowa this season. Plus they blasted Michigan State 38-0 and the Spartans are better than their record would indicate. Though the Badgers, like everyone else, lost to Ohio State this season they beat Iowa plus crushed the Wolverines too. Wisconsin is the more battle-tested team coming into this game and they are favored with good reason. The only reason the Badgers lost last season was a 4-0 turnover deficit. The year before, at Minnesota, Wisconsin won 31-0 and held the Golden Gophers to 133 yards of offense. Minny is a better team than they use to be but they are vastly over-rated this season and the weather also will be factor in this game that favors the Badgers who will pound the Gophers defsne on the ground all game long. I like the Badgers to win this game in the trenches on both sides of the ball. 10* WISCONSIN |
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11-30-19 | Wake Forest -3.5 v. Syracuse | 30-39 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #353 Saturday 8* Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-) @ Syracuse Orange @ 12:30 ET - Wake Forest was favored by nearly a TD earlier in the week and now is down to nearly a FG favorite as of game day. I am fading the move here and grabbing the Demon Deacons. The Orange are reduced to playing for pride as they are just 4-7 on the season. Wake Forest is 8-3 on the year and they were much more dominant against Duke last week then the final score indicates. That is leading to line value here and another key is that the Demon Deacons are playing with revenge from a loss to Syracuse last season. The Orange are just 1-5 ATS as an underdog this season and the Demon Deacons are not only the better defense but also the much better offense in this match-up. 8* WAKE FOREST |
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11-29-19 | Iowa -5 v. Nebraska | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #327 Friday 10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes (-) @ Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 2:30 ET - The Hawkeyes have held their last two opponents to season lows in total points. Iowa is known for their defense and they are allowing only 115 yards on the ground per game this season. However, they are not completely inept on offense either. They didn't have the points to show it for last week against Illinois but note that QB Stanley had over 300 passing yards in that game. The Hawkeyes won't make the same mistake they made against the Huskers last season. It ended up being a 3-point win for Iowa because they allowed the Cornhuskers to rally from 15 points down to tie the game with only a few minutes left before Iowa then kicked the game-winning field goal. Nebraska is off a huge win but it came against a horrible Maryland team. Lets not forget the Huskers are on a 2-9 ATS run and also have covered just ONCE the last EIGHT times they have been a home dog. Facing the Cornhuskers at Nebraska is not what it once was in terms of being difficult on a visitor. By the way, the Hawkeyes are 18-3 ATS their last 21 games as a road favorite. Look for the visitor to improve to 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these teams. In terms of SU winner, Iowa has won 5 of the last 6 meetings. Nebraska has not beaten a good team all season. They have 5 wins and 4 came against teams with a combined record of 10-34. The other win came against a 6-5 Illinois team that is vastly over-rated and extremely fortunate to have 6 wins. Now facing an 8-3 Iowa team whose 3 losses came by a total of 14 points (against Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin), the Huskers will prove to be out-classed here. Nebraska has 5 losses including 3 by a total of 84 points (!) to Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Minnesota. The Golden Gophers team that beat the Cornhuskers by 27 points is the same Minnesota team that Iowa beat a few weeks ago. Big difference right now in the level of these programs right now, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. 10* IOWA |
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11-28-19 | Bills +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 26-15 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #307 Thursday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:30 ET - The Bills are 8-3 this season and their defense has been great. All the pressure is on the Cowboys in this one. Keep in mind the Patriots, as usual, have a stranglehold on the top of the AFC East division but the Bills are in great shape in terms of a Wild Card spot because every other Wild Card contender has 5 losses already. As for the Cowboys, the only way to make the playoffs (most likely) is by winning the division and Dallas has the Eagles just one game in back of them even though Philadelphia is dealing with a ton of injuries and seemingly trying to hand the division to Dallas. The Cowboys simply haven't taken advantage of the situation and coach Jason Garrett is on the hot seat. Again, all the pressure here is on Dallas to perform at home and I love the Bills here as a big underdog after their dominating effort on defense versus Denver. Buffalo has just 3 losses this season and 2 of those came by 6 or less points. The Cowboys have lost 5 of their past 8 games. Dallas certainly is familiar with playing on Thanksgiving Day but that hasn't helped their results at the betting window. The Cowboys are on a 1-7 ATS run in Thanksgiving games and the only cover was a fortunate one as they beat the Redskins by 8 last year as a 7.5 point favorite. They won't be so fortunate here. Dallas has failed to cover 2 of last 3 at home and the Bills are undefeated ATS in their 5 road games this season at 4-0-1 ATS. The Cowboys are 6-11 ATS against teams with a winning record including 1-3 ATS (0-4 SU!) this season! 10* BUFFALO |
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11-28-19 | Bears v. Lions +6 | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL 8* Detroit Lions (+) vs Chicago Bears @ 12:30 ET - With the Lions starting QB David Blough (undrafted rookie out of Purdue) at QB in this one, the markets have jumped all over the Bears. Certainly I understand that but this has gone too far. In typical contrarian fashion here I am going with the underdog that nobody wants. The Lions outgained the Redskins by 134 yards last week but lost due to a 4-2 turnover deficit last week. The Bears yardage edge (92) against the Giants was less than that of Detroit's edge but the markets aren't really looking at that. The markets also aren't looking at the fact that the Lions outgained Chicago by 131 yards in their prior meeting earlier this season even though they lost the game by 7 points. That game was less than 3 weeks ago and was a "phony final" as you can see by the yardage stats. The fact is that the Lions D has been solid in each of its last two road games but they did get embarrassed in their most recent home game. They'll want to make up for that here on Thanksgiving and I expect them to do just that. Let's not forget that the Bears are just 2-5 SU in their last 7 games and one of the victories was a 7 point win in the game they were outgained substantially by the Lions and the other was just a 5-point win over a bad Giants team last week. Look for Detroit, even with Blough at QB, to be in this one all the way. When Chicago enters a game after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, they have gone 2-5 ATS the last 7! The Lions are 8-3 ATS when, in the 2nd half of a season, they are facing a team with a losing record. 8* DETROIT |
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11-26-19 | Ohio v. Akron +28 | Top | 52-3 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #302 Tuesday 10* Top Play Akron Zips (+) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ 6 ET - The Zips showed last week at Miami (Ohio) that they weren't going to just lay down to end the season. It has been a miserable season for Akron and they entered that game 0-10 SU and ATS. However, as a massive underdog of 4 TDs the Zips hung tough with the RedHawks throughout that game and lost by just 3 points. Keep in mind that was on the road too and Miami has had a strong season. That is why I love taking Akron this week as a 4 TD underdog at home. Yes Ohio University needs to win this game for bowl eligibility but the Zips would love to spoil that for the Bobcats and avoid an 0-12 season in the process. While I don't see that happening, I do expect them to hang around in this game all the way through. Ohio U is off a dominating win at Bowling Green but they entered that game just 2-8 ATS this season. As bad as the Zips season has been they have had only one loss by more than 29 points in their past 10 games. Again, Akron would love to spoil the Bobcats bowl hopes and, while I don't see that happening here, I do expect them to hang within a couple scores throughout this game. The Zips are actually 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these teams and the last time they hosted Ohio U they won outright as a double digit dog! Last week's big Bobcats win was the first time this season they had won a game by a margin of more than 21 points. Also, Ohio U's first 4 wins this season came by an average margin of 10.5 points. This game will be much closer than many are expecting. 10* AKRON |
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11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams +4 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (+) vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8:15 ET - The odds makers were completely unaware that the Ravens have been playing better than the Rams this season so they set the odds at a pick'em in this one. I am kidding of course but you can see where I am going with this one. This game opened up with Baltimore as a picks and now the line is up to as high as a -4 as of very early game day morning even though this match-up is at Los Angeles. In typical contrarian fashion I am going against the move here as I back LA in this one. The Rams strength on offense is the pass game and the Ravens weakness on defense is against the pass. Baltimore's strength on offense is the run game while the Rams strength on defense is against the run. Per the above and the fact I am getting more than a field goal with a quality home team, I like the dog in this one! The Rams have allowed just 11 points per game in their last 4 games while the Ravens have allowed 21 points per game in their last 4 road games. The Rams defense is not getting enough respect here and don't be surprised if their passing attack does some solid damage here on offense in this one. 10* LOS ANGELES |
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11-24-19 | Packers +3.5 v. 49ers | 8-37 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #271 Sunday 8* Green Bay Packers (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:20 ET - The Niners are a little banged up and have covered just once in their last five games! Last week San Francisco was fortunate to even beat Arizona as the final margin of victory of 10 points was very deceiving. If anything that helped to give us some line value here because truly Green Bay has played the tougher schedule this season and also comes in rested off a bye week. They are also "out for blood" a bit in this road game. I say that because even though the Packers are off a home win, it was their most recent road effort that really had QB Aaron Rodgers fired up. That was also on the west coast and it was a 26-11 loss at Los Angeles at the hands of the Chargers. Rest assured Rodgers and the coaching staff have been reminding the team of that ugly road effort as they have now had two weeks to prepare for this game and they don't want to repeat that. The Packers were a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in road games this season before the debacle at LA. San Francisco is certainly a very strong team but they truly are a little over-rated and with the injuries they have and the fact that this situation sets up so well for the road dog, I am grabbing the points with Green Bay. The Packers have failed to cover just twice the last thirteen times they are off a bye week! San Francisco has just 6 ATS wins the last 21 times they have been a home favorite. Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan is doing a great job here but note that he is 2-11 ATS when at home and off a game in which the 49ers scored 22 or more points. A lot of systems, angles, situational value all pointing the way of the road team in this one. 8* GREEN BAY |
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11-24-19 | Jaguars +3.5 v. Titans | Top | 20-42 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #267 Sunday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (+) @ Tennessee Titans @ 4:05 ET - Jacksonville got blown out by 20 points last week but Nick Foles returned at QB and will be even sharper in his second game back. Tennessee is off a bye week but the Titans got a miracle comeback win over the Chiefs prior to the bye. This is the type of a situation where a team often struggles and Tennessee also has failed to cover 5 of its last 6 divisional games. The Jags come in fired up off an ugly loss and Jacksonville did have a bye the prior week so they are in pretty good shape here from a health standpoint. Tennessee is playing with revenge here from a loss at Jacksonville earlier this season when Minshew was at QB. However, this Titans defeat simply continued their recurring pattern of struggling in divisional games. Also, there is a reason Tennessee opened up as only 2.5 point favorites when lines first came out on this game. They since rose to as high as a 4 and I love fading the moves in situations just like this one. By the way, the Titans are 1-9 ATS in games 9 through 12 of a season when they are off a home game. Watch that big win over the Chiefs leave Tennessee a bit flat in this one and Foles and the Jaguars are coming off hungry after getting blasted at Indianapolis. Remember that is now back to back ugly defeats for Jacksonville (also lost in London two weeks ago) and the Jaguars are 7-2 ATS in games 9 through 12 of a season when they are off a loss that came by a double digit margin both SU and ATS. 10* JACKSONVILLE |
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11-23-19 | North Texas -6.5 v. Rice | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #185 Saturday 10* Top Play North Texas Mean Green (-) @ Rice Owls @ 3:30 ET - First off QB Mason Fine is probable for this game and of course that was an important aspect of this play. With Fine at the controls the Mean Green offense is tough to stop and I don't foresee the Owls being able to keep up in this one. North Texas is angry here as they have had time to work up plenty of energy for this one. The Mean Green got demolished 52-17 by Louisiana Tech before their bye week. Keep in mind, prior to this North Texas had averaged 37 points per game in their 6 prior games. Look for their offense to bounce back huge here and keep in mind they are facing a 1-win Rice team. In similar match-ups with struggling teams in CUSA, the Mean Green annihilated UTSA 45-3 and UTEP 52-26. I know the Owls have been more competitive this season but, again, they just don't match up well here because they don't have the offense to keep up. Rice is off a shocking upset win at Middle Tennessee but the Owls were outgained in that game and won thanks to turnovers. Rice still didn't get to the 400 yard mark on offense and they allowed more than 450 yards but won the game and the point is that the Owls 377 yards was a season high. So Rice had their best game on offense and yet still were fortunate to win. They won't be so fortunate here. North Texas has defeated the Owls in each of their last 3 meetings and all wins came by 7 or more points with an average victory margin of 15.7 points! The Mean Green are 8-2 ATS when they are playing with rest and facing a team with a losing record. When Rice is off a road game (in this case was massive upset too since they were a double digit dog) they have gone 4-12 ATS! 10* NORTH TEXAS |
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11-23-19 | Oklahoma State -5.5 v. West Virginia | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CFB Rotation #129 Saturday 8* Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) @ West Virginia Mountaineers @ Noon ET - West Virginia is off an upset win at Kansas State but the Mountaineers were outgained by over 100 yards. That has set up nice line value to go against them in this spot. West Virginia entered last week's game against the Jayhawks having lost 5 straight games and a number of them were blowout losses. The Mountaineers average margin of defeat in those 5 losses was nearly 20 points. Oklahoma State enters this game having won 3 straight games and all 7 of their wins this season have come by 7 points or more. This one will too. The Cowboys are the better team and the much hotter team and they keep their momentum going here. While the defenses here rate about equal, the Cowboys rate a huge edge on offense and that will be the difference in this game. 8* OKLAHOMA STATE |
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11-23-19 | Minnesota v. Northwestern +14.5 | 38-22 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CFB Rotation #150 Saturday 8* Northwestern Wildcats (+) vs Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Noon ET - Minnesota in a bad situation here for a myriad of reasons. They are suffering unbeaten letdown after their first loss of the season last week. So the Golden Gophers are off a huge game at Iowa and they also have another tough opponent, Wisconsin, on deck for their season finale at home next week. I could easily see the Gophers struggling a little mentally in this match-up with the Wildcats. Along the lines of struggling mentally, Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan is also questionable for this game after he got his bell rung late in the game against the Hawkeyes last week. The Wildcats have had an ugly season but a huge upset win over a ranked Gophers team would sure be nice way for Northwestern to close out the home portion of their schedule this season. In their home finale, I look for the Cats to step up big and I expect them to lose this by no more than a single touchdown and we're getting a pair of touchdowns here thanks to the market move. Yes it was a very bad UMass team that the Wildcats faced last week but that is also the type of win that helps to build confidence. Off that blowout win and playing at home for the 3rd straight week and 5th time in 6 weeks, the Cats will be in this game all the way! 8* NORTHWESTERN |
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11-23-19 | Illinois v. Iowa -15 | 10-19 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CFB Rotation #144 Saturday 8* Iowa Hawkeyes (-) vs Illinois Illini @ Noon ET - Iowa has a fantastic defense but a pedestrian offense. That makes it seem tough to lay big points with the Hawkeyes in a spot like this. However, Illinois is ripe for a beatdown. They have had some unbelievable good fortunate in wins versus Wisconsin and at Michigan State and now reality will set in after a 4-game winning streak that included wins over Purdue (without QB) and Big Ten bottom-feeder Rutgers. Note that prior to this streak the Illini had allowed 34 points or more in 4 straight games and an average of 40 points per game during that 4-game losing streak. Even though they had the miracle win at Michigan State in their most recent game, they did allow 34 points to the Spartans. That holds significance here because the Spartans, like the Hawkeyes, are known for struggling on offense but, just like so many other teams have done, Michigan State got to 34 against the Illini. So, about that Iowa defense....they are allowing an average of only 12.4 points per game. Keep in mind that includes games against some top Big Ten teams like Minnesota, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Michigan. I feel the Illini won't even get to 10 points here but even if they do, don't be surprised if the Hawkeyes have one of their best games of the season on offense as they take advantage of facing weaker competition here. The Illini have been so fortunate of late they didn't need the bye week. That is actually going to kill the mojo they had going. Home team wins this one by at least 21 in my opinion. 8* IOWA |
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11-21-19 | NC State +2 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 26-28 | Push | 0 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #111 Thursday 10* Top Play NC State Wolfpack (+) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 8 ET - The Wolfpack have struggled recently but their defense looks healthier now than it has in recent games and also it was their secondary that was injury riddled. That means they match-up better with a run-heavy team like Georgia Tech than they would against teams that like to air it out. That being said, I like this match-up for NC State. Yes both teams have had tough seasons but the Wolfpack actually outgained Louisville last week and were simply done in by a 3-0 turnover deficit. As for Georgia Tech, they got smashed by Virginia Tech last week by a count of 45-0. The Yellow Jackets are getting outgained by nearly 165 yards per game in ACC action! The Wolfpack, on the other hand, actually have a positive yardage margin in ACC games this season! The road team has won 5 straight in this series and the Wolfpack need a win here to keep their bowl hopes alive. For the Yellow Jackets, their season is over and they certainly played like it last week too! More of the same expected here. 10* NC STATE |
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11-20-19 | Toledo v. Buffalo -8 | Top | 30-49 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #106 Wednesday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bulls (-) vs Toledo Rockets @ 7:30 ET - Both teams off disappointing losses but Toledo now has to go on the road after battling all the way back from a 28-7 deficit at home against Northern Illinois only to lose on a late field goal. Though mathematically alive in the MAC West race, the Rockets know the reality is that the loss to the Huskies essentially squashed those dreams. This is a very young team too and they have struggled often when facing adversity. I expect that to be the case again here. As for the Bulls, they are off a crazy loss to Kent State where everything improbable actually happened in the Golden Flashes late comeback from a 27-6 deficit. Now with a well-coached Buffalo team at home off a loss and having the much better defense in this match-up in this one, I am look for the Bulls to win in a rout. Buffalo ranks 9th in the nation on defense while Toledo ranks 116th! Also, the Rockets are on an 0-5 ATS run overall. Toledo is also 0-4 ATS on the road this season. Buffalo opened the season with a non-covering win over an FCS school but, at home, in FBS action, the Bulls have been red hot ever since as they are a perfect 3-0 ATS as a host against FBS schools this season. As you can see, triple perfect ATS support for backing the home team in this one. Lay the points with the host as they dominate this one with their strong pass-rushing ability on defense and their dynamic ground game on offense. The Bulls dictate the tempo in this one and control the clock in this game and win by double digits. 10* BUFFALO |
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11-19-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois -4 | Top | 45-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #104 Tuesday 10* Top Play Northern Illinois Huskies (-) vs Eastern Michigan Eagles @ 7:30 ET - The Huskies are off a 31-28 win at Toledo but Northern Illinois actually led that game huge before the Rockets rallied late. It was a tight win but the point is that had the Huskies been at home for that one I would have expected the blowout to go on for the full sixty minutes. Now here they are getting a rare home game as they have had a very home-heavy schedule thus far. Northern Illinois finishes the season with a pair of home games and I expect them to make the most of it. Eastern Michigan is off a huge win but it came against an Akron team that is the worst team out of all 130 teams in FBS! The Zips are simply dreadful this season. Prior to that win the Eagles had lost 4 of 5 games with the average margin of defeat being 16 points. These teams each struggle on offense but the Huskies are the better defense and have home field here and have won 11 straight games in this series. I look for the streak to reach a dozen games and I expect the victory margin to be double digits just as the Huskies two prior home wins were this season. 10* NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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11-18-19 | Chiefs v. Chargers +5.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #476 Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers (+) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:15 ET - This is a neutral site game as it is being played at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, Mexico. Considering the fact it is a neutral site and that Chiefs Andy Reid continues to be the worst late game manager in NFL history, I am happy to back the Chargers here. Kansas City lost at Tennessee last week partially because they have defensive breakdowns in critical moments but also because if Reid was smarter about play-calling to close out games the Titans would not have even had the ball to have a chance to win the game. Reid has had issues with this since his days in Philadelphia and that is part of the reason the Eagles finally won a Super Bowl AFTER he was shown the door! The point I am making here though is that it is hard to lay points with him unless it is a game that is destined to be an absolute blowout and I certainly don't see that being the case here. Everyone is on Kansas City here and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side. Chargers QB Rivers is off a rare poor game and he'll be ready to bounce back here. At the same time, this is a Chiefs defense that gave up over 200 yards on the ground last week and that means LA can do some damage here on the ground which will further open up things for Rivers to attack downfield through the air. Under head coach Anthony Lynn, the Chargers are 9-2 ATS when facing a team off an outright upset loss. That system is in play here as the Chiefs lost outright as a 6 point favorite over the Titans last week. We are getting close to the stretch run of the season and note the following stat when Kansas City is playing in games 9 through 12 of a season. When KC has a winning record and is favored over a team that is coming off an away game, the Chiefs have gone 1-8 ATS! Not only where the Chargers at Oakland last week, their game was on Thursday (while KC played on Sunday at Tennessee) so LA does have a rest edge for this game also. 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS |
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11-17-19 | Bears v. Rams -6 | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #474 Sunday 8* Los Angeles Rams (-) vs Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - The Rams are off a loss but simply came out of their bye week with their timing off and they delivered a dud at Pittsburgh. From a yardage standpoint the teams were nearly even but Los Angeles was done in by turnovers. While LA was on the road last week, the Bears were at home and they got the win over the Lions. However, Chicago was outgained in that game and the Bears are simply not a very good football team right now. This week Chicago now goes on the road and I feel we've got great value here with the Rams at home. LA of course is much better than they showed last week plus they are at home and also playing this game with revenge from last year's last season loss that the Bears handed Los Angeles. That was just the 2nd loss of the Rams season last year and also came on Sunday night. LA, undoubtedly, has not forgotten and gets payback under the lights tonight. The Bears defense has not been as strong as it was last season, particularly against the pass. The strength of the Rams offense is the passing game. Good match-up for LA here in that regard. As for Chicago's offense, they rank among the worst in the league. Coming back to the Bears pass defense too, note that they allowed over 275 passing yards to a back-up QB in last week's fortunate win. In terms of system support here, Chicago entered this season on an 0-8 ATS run when on the road in a non-divisional game as a dog of 7 or less points facing a team that is off an upset loss as a favorite. That system fits here with the Rams off the loss as a 4-point fave at Pittsburgh last week. Including playoff games too, LA is on a 10-4 ATS run extending back to the final two games of last year's regular season. Once again, the Rams will bounce back with a cover after an ATS loss last week. 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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11-17-19 | Patriots v. Eagles +4 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -115 | 118 h 33 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #470 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - Both teams enter this week off a bye week last week. First off I am going to talk about the always good but always over-hyped Patriots. While it is true that New England blew out Pittsburgh in Week 1 of this season lets talk about what has happened since then. The Patriots have played 8 games since then and 6 of them were wins by 14 points or more. The other two were games the Pats lost ATS. More on the latter in the moment but lets first talk about all those "tough" teams that New England faced in those 6 big wins. Here is their current record of each of the teams they faced week by week: 2-7, 2-7, 1-8, 2-8, 1-8, 3-6. Noticing a pattern here? The Pats took care of business a lot but they faced trash a lot! So how about those other two games? The Patriots barely got by the Bills and did NOT cover and then two weeks ago New England got absolutely dominated by the Ravens. Notice this pattern? When Mr Brady and Mr Belichick have to step up and face a formidable opponent things suddenly change. The Eagles beat a MUCH tougher Patriots team to win the Super Bowl in Feb of 2018 and so this Pats team is much more susceptible to what the Eagles bring to the table here and this game is NOT at a neutral site. The Philadelphia schedule has been much tougher than the Patriots schedule has been. The Eagles have faced 5 tough teams in their last 6 games and 4 of those teams have a combined record of 26-12 on the season! The Eagles run defense ranks among the best in the NFL and the Patriots, despite facing a mostly cupcake schedule, rank in the bottom 3rd of the NFL for running the ball. That said, when a team struggles to run the ball their offense of course becomes more predictable and you know The Linc is going to be rocking for this game and I expect the Philly defense to bring a huge game here. This is just the 2nd home game the Eagles have had in the past 6 weeks! Look for the Patriots to drop to 0-3 ATS on the season when they are on the road and facing a team with a winning record. The Eagles are 3-1 SU at home this season and many will be looking for the Pats to bounce back here after that ugly loss at Baltimore two weeks ago. However, Philadelphia is off B2B wins and has moved back into a first-place tie in the NFC East so they are "feeling it" again and check out the following stat. The Eagles are 8-0 ATS when off a SU win and facing a non-divisional foe with a winning percentage of .667 or greater that is off a SU/ATS loss. That PERFECT system fits here. Also, under head coach Doug Pederson, the Eagles are 10-3 ATS when they enter a game with a winning record on the season and they are an underdog against a non-divisional foe. Also, under Pederson, the Eagles are 9-3 ATS when they enter a game off B2B SU/ATS wins. In games 9 through 12 of a season, Philly is 10-2 ATS when off a SU/ATS win and facing a team that is off an outright upset loss as a favorite. New England, in regular season games, is now on an 0-5 ATS streak when they are on the road and facing a team that has a .500 record or better. The Eagles should win this outright but I am happy to grab the points as added insurance here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-17-19 | Cowboys v. Lions +7.5 | 35-27 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #452 Saturday 8* Detroit Lions (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - Lions back-up QB Driskel actually played quite well in last week's loss at Chicago. In fact, Detroit outgained Chicago significantly in the loss and Driskel threw for 269 yards. The Cowboys are also off a loss last week as they fell short against the Vikings. Dallas, of course, would love to right the ship on the road here but the Cowboys already have lost on the road to a team like the Jets. Also, when Dallas lost to the Saints in New Orleans earlier this season, NO wasn't playing that well at the times as they had just recently lost Brees to injury at that point. As you can see, I am not that impressed with a Dallas team that had a chance to get a stranglehold on the NFC East division but has proven time and time again that they are not ready to make the jump to being an elite team. Again, the Cowboys now face a road test in a game they are expected to win but we have seen how these have gone before. The line on this game opened at less than a TD but has now risen to as high as a 7.5 as of early gameday morning and let us not forget that Dallas also has a major road test with the 8-1 Patriots on deck. Certainly, the Cowboys could overlook a 3-5-1 Lions team. Solid system here favors the underdog as Detroit entered this season 11-1 ATS when facing a non-division opponent off an outright upset loss as a favorite. That system fits here as the Cowboys were favored by 3 over the Vikings last week but lost outright. Dallas is 1-2 both SU and ATS in their last 3 road games. Perhaps they do notch the SU win here but I fully expect it to be by 7 points or less if that is the case. That said, the Lions have a great shot at the outright upset here and, of course, an even greater shot at getting at least a cover. 8* DETROIT |
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11-16-19 | LSU v. Ole Miss +22 | Top | 58-37 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #402 Saturday 10* Top Play Ole Miss Rebels (+) vs LSU Tigers @ 7 ET - LSU is simply over-valued here and it is a great spot to fade them after their huge win at Alabama last week. Keep in mind, the Tigers were on the road at Vandy this season and were favored by 24 points in this game. In other words, this line today is basically saying that Ole Miss is just as bad of a team as 2-7 Vanderbilt and that couldn't be further from the truth. In fact, the Rebels beat the Commodores 31-7 earlier this season. I am confident that, especially because they are at home and especially because they catch LSU off such a huge win, Ole Miss is absolutely going to hang around in this game for all 4 quarters. Keep in mind, the Rebels ugliest loss this season was by 28 points and that was at Alabama. One could argue that means LSU should win this game by a similar margin of course. However, note that the Rebels other 5 losses have come by an average margin of defeat of just 7.4 points. The loss to Alabama was the only time a game "got away" from Ole Miss. Since they are at home for this one, and catching LSU in a flat spot, look for this one to play out much differently than the one against the Crimson Tide did. The Tigers have failed to cover 10 of the last 12 times they were off an outright upset win on the road and that is the case here after LSU's win at Alabama as a dog last week. After starting the season 2-1, Mississippi has since gone 2-5. However, they are a viewing today's game as a huge opportunity to make some headlines for sure and note the following: Rebels, when entering a game after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, have gone 3-1 ATS and SU. Now of course an upset would be a reach here but I do expect the Rebels to lose this game by only 1 or two scores. They're highly motivated and hang tough in this one all the way. 10* OLE MISS |
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11-16-19 | Michigan State +14 v. Michigan | 10-44 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #387 Saturday 8* Michigan State Spartans (+) @ Michigan Wolverines @ Noon ET - Last season Michigan State got rolled at home in this match-up in a non-covering loss. However, the Spartans entered that one on a 10-0 ATS run in this series. In 2 of the last 3 meetings prior to last season Michigan State pulled the outright upset. The Spartans are very angry here after their historic collapse at home last week. They had Illinois beat and done for the day until a late TD right at the end of the first half gave the Illini unexpected life. To that point Illinois had managed scoring only 3 points. It is not a valid excuse for the Spartans but it happened and the game played out completely different than it would have if that play had not happened. Momentum is huge in football and it completely skewed the results of that game last week and has led to line value here as everyone is now very anti-Spartan. The fact is that Michigan State is always up for this rivalry game and they'll be ready to go here and their defense, last week notwithstanding, is good enough to keep them in this game all the way. Michigan is off a bye week which followed a blowout win at Maryland. Huge edge for the Spartans here, right? Actually they got blasted at Wisconsin earlier this season and that was coming off a bye week. Now of the course I am not saying the Spartans are the Badgers and also Big Blue is at home for this game but what I am saying is this...that ugly loss in Madison dropped the Wolverines to 1-7 ATS when coming off a bye week. I expect the Wolverines to find a way to win this game but I expect Michigan wins it by just a single score. 8* MICHIGAN STATE |
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11-15-19 | Louisiana Tech +6.5 v. Marshall | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #315 Friday 10* Top Play Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (+) @ Marshall Thundering Herd @ 7 ET - Lets talk about injuries and suspensions first because that is a key reason that this line has been driven from -2 to a -6.5 as of early game day morning. First off the Bulldogs are without a safety (James Jackson) but the Thundering Herd are without one (Brandon Drayton) too. As for the WR spot, yes I know that Adrian Hardy is Louisiana Tech's "big name" guy and he is suspended for this game but when you look at the Bulldogs statistically, they have a group of wide receivers all in the same range of total yards as Hardy PLUS with a lot more touchdowns too. Hardy is not as big of a loss as people think and, keep in mind, Marshall lost their starting slot wide receiver, Artie Henry, early in the season. So the big glaring one, and main driver of this line, is the suspension of QB J'Mar Smith for La Tech. I am here to tell you that the Bulldogs have capable back-ups and the right guy, even if it is more than one QB that sees action here, will be who gets the majority of playing time here and they are NOT going up against some elite defense either. Louisiana Tech has been fantastic this season and a lot of it has to do with their system on offense. In other words, others can step in and have better functionality with the offense than you would think. The Bulldogs are having a great season that side of the ball and their defense is roughly equal with that of the Thundering Herd. That said, I have no hesitation in going contrarian here and backing the big dog and fading the masses! The Bulldogs are averaging a dozen points more per game than Marshall this season. I am aware that La Tech has faced a weak schedule this season but the Thundering Herd haven't exactly faced a powerhouse docket this season either. Also, the Bulldogs have covered 15 of last 20 as a road dog while the Thundering Herd have covered just 5 of their last 21 when favored in a Conference USA clash. 10* LOUISIANA TECH |
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11-14-19 | Buffalo v. Kent State +6 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #312 Thursday 10* Top Play Kent State Golden Flashes (+) vs Buffalo Bulls @ 7 ET - The markets are all over Buffalo here but, in typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing Kent State. Yes the Bulls have won 3 straight games and the Golden Flashes have lost 3 straight games. However, Kent State just was on the road at Toledo a little over a week ago and they took the Rockets to the wire and they were a 7 point dog in that game. There is not a huge difference between Toledo and Buffalo in terms of their level of play within the MAC and the Golden Flashes lost by just two points to the Rockets. Yet now, after this line opened up at a 3, it has been driven all the way up to a 6 even though Kent State is at home for this one and playing with revenge from an embarrassing loss to the Bulls last season. Also, this is just the 2nd home game for the Golden Flashes since late September. They're going to want to make the most of this! That said, Kent State is going to fight all the way to the final gun in this one. The Golden Flashes last 3 losses have come by an average margin of just 5 points per game. They have been "right there" in each game and this time I see them getting over the hump and getting the win. Kent State is a much more competitive team than they've been in the past and yet the still carry that "negative perception" with the marketplace from years of ugliness. They will fight tooth and nail in this game and an outright upset would not surprise but I am grabbing the points as added insurance. Note that Bulls are off a big road win that preceded their bye week and they also had a big road win against a dreadful Akron team. However, prior to that they started the season 0-3 on the road with all 3 losses by a double digit margin. The Golden Flashes are in this one all the way. 10* KENT STATE |
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11-13-19 | Northern Illinois +2.5 v. Toledo | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #307 Wednesday 10* Top Play Northern Illinois Huskies (+) @ Toledo Rockets @ 8 ET - As long-time followers know, I tend to be a contrarian when it comes to handicapping games. That said, why in the world would a 6-3 Toledo be such a small favorite at home against a 3-6 Northern Illinois team? Exactly! Give me the underdog Huskies here while most of the world will likely be jumping on the Rockets! Now, I am never a contrarian without some reasoning of course and Northern Illinois does need to win out to be bowl eligible. They still have that going for them and, in the process, they'd love to hurt Toledo's chances of winning the MAC West. From a statistical standpoint the Rockets certainly have the better defense but note that defense tends to win football games this time of year and the Huskies have the much better defense. Based on yardage allowed Toledo ranks #117 out 130 teams while Northern Illinois ranks a much stronger 51st on defense. The Huskies have won 7 of the last 9 meetings between these teams and I expect another victory here on the road and will grab the couple points being offered. We might start to see some +3 on this one but I am happy enough already at the +2.5 that is prevalent right now. 10* NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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11-12-19 | Western Michigan +2 v. Ohio | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #303 Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Michigan Broncos (+) @ Ohio University Bobcats @ 6:30 ET - With Ohio U having home field it is is not a huge surprise that the betting markets have flipped the favorite on this one. Western Michigan opened up as the favorite in this one and now they are the dog. I love fading this type of a line move and especially when I have a strong situation favoring our side that many might be overlooking. The Bobcats didn't just beat the Broncos last season...they blasted them. Ohio U won that game 59-14 despite having a yardage edge of only 150 yards. What happened was a turnover-filled first half for Western Michigan that led to a 45-0 deficit. Now it is payback time here and, keep in mind, that ugly loss featured the Broncos as the host. That said, they would love nothing more than to return the favor tonight by rolling the Bobcats at Athens, OH with the ESPN2 cameras rolling for this Tuesday night match-up. Statistically the Broncos are the better team on both sides of the ball and, though 0-4 SU and ATS on the season in road games, do you think the odds makers were unaware of that when they made them the favorite here! Don't be fooled by the line move here, the road team gets it done as the Bobcats drop to 2-8 ATS on the season with another loss here. 10* WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-11-19 | Seahawks +6.5 v. 49ers | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #273 Monday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - The Seahawks SU record in primetime games under Pete Carroll is an incredible 27-5 with one tie. They have also won 80% of their Monday night games with Carroll as they've been victorious in eight of ten. Of course it looks enticing to back the undefeated 49ers and lay less than a TD but in typical contrarian fashion I am grabbing the points here. I feel Seattle has a great shot at the upset here and that means great value in this one. Though the Seahawks kicker has been less than stellar this season, note that the San Francisco kicking situation could be even worse off here as they have injury concerns. In a game projected to be a rather tight back and forth divisional battle, don't be surprised if the kicking game plays a role here and Seattle actually holds the edge here based on the Robbie Gould injury situation as he has been downgraded to doubtful for this one. Keep in mind, other than the Niners huge win over the Panthers two weeks ago, their other 3 games since mid-October have seen them score an average of just 19 points per game. San Francisco is 6-13 ATS as a home favorite while the Seahawks enter this game having covered 5 in a row as a divisional road dog! In fact, Seattle enters this game with a perfect 4-0 SU record on the road this season too! The Seahawks are scoring an average of 28.5 points per game away from home this season. Seattle's D had a poor game last week but clearly they were looking ahead to this game. Also, the Seahawks strength on D is their rushing defense and the Niners strength on offense is the ground game so this one sets up well for the Seattle D to have a bounce back game in a key divisional showdown. The Seahawks can move within a half game of the division lead by winning this game and they have a bye on deck so they're definitely going the full sixty in this game. Great underdog value in this one. 10* SEATTLE |
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11-10-19 | Vikings +3.5 v. Cowboys | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #271 Sunday 8* Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - Nice set up here for a defensive-minded road dog. The Vikings are off a tough loss at Kansas City as they lost on a 44 yard field goal as time expired. Minnesota is on regular rest here while the Cowboys are on short rest. Even though Dallas is at home for this one, keep in mind they were in East Rutherford, NJ on Monday night taking on the Giants. That was not only a divisional win for the Cowboys, it also was more of a hard fought win than what the final score would indicate as it was a 1-point game heading to the 4th quarter. One thing I like about fading Dallas here is that they have truly struggled outside the division against better teams. Keep in mind the only two times they've really been tested in a non-divisional game this season they lost at New Orleans and then followed that up by losing at home to the Packers. In terms of some ATS support here. Dallas, is 2-7 ATS in their first game after facing the Giants. Also, the Cowboys are 0-7 ATS when off a Monday night game. Under Jason Garrett, the Cowboys are 2-10 ATS when they are favored off a divisional game and facing a team with a winning record. The Cowboys beat MIke Zimmer and his Vikings in Minnesota in 2016 in their most recent meeting. In games 9 through 12 of a season, when the Vikings are off a SU loss and playing with revenge they are 10-2 ATS! Entering this season the Vikings under Mike Zimmer were also 11-2 ATS when facing an opponent off a double digit ATS cover. Before their tight loss at KC last week, the Vikes had won 4 straight games all by double digits! 8* MINNESOTA |
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11-10-19 | Rams v. Steelers +4.5 | Top | 12-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #270 Sunday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (+) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - Great spot for a home dog here. So far the teams that have played in London this season, entering this week, have gone 0-4 ATS. Yes, even though those teams get a bye week after the trip to London it still seems to take a lot out of them. Not only have they gone 0-4 ATS they have also gone 0-4 SU with the average margin of defeat being 18 points! Now I am not saying that the Steelers are going to steamroll the Rams just because of those numbers but what I am saying is that Pittsburgh is going to be a very tough home dog in this spot and I expect the Rams to be less than 100% here just like the Bears, Raiders, Buccaneers and Panthers were after their bye week that followed their London trips. The Steelers have plenty of momentum here as they have won 3 straight games and 4 of their last 5. In fact, since a season opening loss to the Patriots, Pittsburgh has not been blown out in any of their games. After the embarrassing loss at New England, the Steelers have gone 4-3 and the 3 losses have come by an average of 3 points with no margin of defeat more than 4 points. You can see why I am liking the points here! Also, Los Angeles enters this game off back to back blowout wins but those victories came against Atlanta and Cincinnati. Those two teams have a combined ONE win between them this season. That is note worthy here because, prior to that, the Rams had lost 3 straight games (2 of the games against tougher competition) and Pittsburgh is certainly no slouch. The Steelers have covered 14 of last 18 as a home dog and 5 of last 6 in non-conference games. 10* PITTSBURGH |
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11-10-19 | Chiefs v. Titans +6.5 | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #252 Sunday 8* Tennessee Titans (+) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - Mahomes is back this week at QB for the Chiefs but, undoubtedly, there will be some rust. Also, a start on the road at Tennessee is not exactly the top choice a QB would have either. The Titans defense is certainly a respectable one and the entire team is coming into this one with their ears pinned back. Tennessee is off a 10-point loss at Carolina last week despite the fact they outgained the Panthers by 61 yards. Kansas City is off a home win versus the Vikings that came on a game-winning 44-yard field goal. It was a hard-fought win, to say the least, and now the Chiefs are on the road this week. We have reached the 2nd half of the season and in games 9 through 12 of a season, when KC has a winning record and is favored against an opponent that is coming off a road game, the Chiefs have gone 1-7 ATS! The Titans, when facing an opponent with a winning percentage of .601 or greater that is off an ATS win, have gone 8-1 ATS! Motivation off a loss, home field, and the Titans are catching a rusty Mahomes at QB as he will be adjusting after all that time off. 8* TENNESSEE |
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11-09-19 | Wake Forest -1.5 v. Virginia Tech | 17-36 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CFB Rotation #137 Saturday 8* Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-) @ Virginia Tech Hokies @ 3:30 ET - QB Jamie Newman returned for Wake Forest last week. He had missed the Florida State game with an injury. It is no coincidence that the game against the Seminoles ended up being the lowest scoring output (22) for the Demon Deacons this season. With Newman under center Wake Forest has averaged 40 points per game in his 7 games. That is the key edge here is that the Demon Deacons simply have too much offense for Virginia Tech to be able to keep up here. The Hokies beat the Hurricanes 42-35 earlier this season but they were outgained by over 200 yards in that game. It was a deceiving final score and they only gained 337 yards in that game! 42 points on 337 yards yes you can see just how deceiving that game was! The point is that the only other "big" games that Virginia Tech had on offense were against Rhode Island and Old Dominion. Note they only scored 31 points in regulation of their 6 OT win over UNC. So taking away the crazy Hurricanes game and games against an FCS school (RI) and a bad (1-8) Old Dominion team, let's look at what Virginia Tech has averaged in terms of points scored in regulation of their other 5 games...22.6 points per game. You can see why I am expecting the Hokies to be unable to keep up here. Demon Deacons in a road rout. 8* WAKE FOREST |
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11-09-19 | UAB +7.5 v. Southern Miss | 2-37 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CFB Rotation #175 Saturday 8* UAB Blazers (+) @ Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles @ 3:30 ET - I used UAB last week and they got embarrassed at Tennessee but it was a deceiving final score. The Blazers were only outgained by 65 yards but they lost 30-7 because they were done in by turnovers. The point is that UAB was hardly outgained by an SEC team on the road last week and yet now they're getting more than a TD back in action against a CUSA team. While the Golden Eagles do rank an edge here, albeit slight, in terms of offense note that the defensive edge lies with the Blazers in a big way. Southern Miss has allowed nearly 30 points per game this season while UAB ranks 5th in the nation in defense based on yardage allowed. Look for the Eagles to get caught still feeling a little too good about themselves. They got a big win against a win-less Rice team two weeks ago and then had a bye week last week. Before the big win over the Owls, Southern Miss had allowed an average of 35.7 points per game in their 6 preceding games. The better defense gives the Blazers a great shot at the upset here and certainly the points are a high value play the way I am forecasting this one! Blazers are ticked off after that loss to the Volunteers followed their bye week. 8* UAB |
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11-09-19 | Georgia Southern v. Troy +3 | 28-49 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CFB Rotation #178 Saturday 8* Troy Trojans (+) vs Georgia Southern Eagles @ 3:30 ET - Great spot for a home dog. The Eagles were on the road last week and got the upset win at previously undefeated Appalachian State. Watch Georgia Southern now come out very flat this week after that huge upset in a weeknight televised game over a team that was 7-0. Certainly the Eagles deserve credit for pulling off the upset but the Mountaineers had 23 first downs compared to just 15 for Georgia Southern. Prior to that victory the Eagles only had one big win this season (41-7) but that came against a horrible New Mexico State team. Their other 3 wins came against Maine (an FCS school) by just a single score and South Alabama (2 OT) and Coastal Carolina (3 OT). In fact 3 of the Eagles last 4 wins have been by just 3 points so you can see why I like having the +3 on our side in this one. Troy is angry after a 1 point loss at Coastal Carolina that dropped them to a surprising 3-5 on the season. I like taking undervalued teams that are due to step up late in the season. The Trojans are off back to back road losses but this is a team that has scored 37 points or more in all 4 of its home games! While the Eagles have the better D, the Trojans are the much better O plus have home field here. Considering all that as well as the situational edge, there was no doubt for me here in terms of backing the home dog. 8* TROY |
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11-09-19 | Illinois v. Michigan State -14 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #136 Saturday 10* Top Play Michigan State Spartans (-) vs Illinois Illini @ 3:30 ET - This is a game I had my eyes on since two weeks ago when the Spartans got hammered by 3 touchdowns at home against Penn State. Keep in mind, that is the only game that Michigan State has played since October 12th. Now, 4 weeks later, they are finally playing again as they have had two bye weeks in the past three weeks. This is exactly what the Spartans have needed as they most certainly have fresh legs here and they are ready to take out the frustration of three straight losses on what will prove to be an out-classed foe. Note that the Spartans lost to a "Murderers Row" of opponents as their last 3 games have come against Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Penn State. Now they face an Illinois team that is coming into this game over-valued. Lovie Smith is a weakness at head coach and they don't have the talent level (not even close) to match up with the big boys in the Big Ten. Yes, I know the Illini managed that miracle upset over the Badgers a few weeks back but upsets can and do happen. What matters most is the long-term results and the situational spots. That said, I expect the Spartans to destroy Illinois here and give them a dose of reality. The Illini come into this game with a 5-4 record but their other 4 wins have come against teams with a combined record of 7-29. Keep in mind the Spartans last 3 losses have come against teams with a combined record of 22-2 and the Badgers are probably the best 2-loss team in the nation by the way. That said, the rout is on here. With this line coming back to 14, after having risen above that, it is "go time" for me with a big play on the home team in this one! 10* MICHIGAN STATE |
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11-07-19 | Chargers -1 v. Raiders | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #107 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers (-) @ Oakland Raiders @ 8:20 ET - The Chargers have won 4 straight meetings with the Raiders and the last 3 wins have come by an average margin of victory of 16.7 points. The strength of the Los Angeles offense is the passing game and the weakness of the Raiders defense is defending the pass. This is not a good match-up for Oakland as a result and they continue to be banged up along the offensive line too. The Chargers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games and they were at home last week against Green Bay so this is not a bad trouble situation for LA considering they are just heading up the coast in California for this one. The Raiders have the worst pass defense in this league and their passing attack on offense ranks just "middle of the pack" on the season. The Raiders are the better team on the ground but in the pass-happy NFL, it is often the aerial attack that keys victories. The Chargers pass defense ranks 5th in the league and their pass offense ranks 6th in the league. The Raiders are just 2-8 SU in their last 10 divisional games and this line is right around a pick'em. In other words, the SU winner is likely the ATS winner as well! Oakland is off a big win (and cover) versus Detroit last week and that is noteworthy here in this AFC West match-up. In a divisional game the Raiders are 0-12 ATS when they are off a SU/ATS win and facing an opponent that is off a non-divisional game. That system fits here as the Chargers hosted Green Bay last week. Also, in games 9 through 12 of a season, Oakland is 1-8 ATS when off a SU win and facing an opponent that is off an ATS cover by double digits. LA absolutely rolled the Packers last week! Look for the Chargers to improve to 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS |
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11-04-19 | Cowboys v. Giants +7 | Top | 37-18 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #476 Monday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - The Giants are having a tough season but, keep in mind, they made the switch to Daniel Jones at QB in Week 3. Even though they are only 2-4 since then, two of the four losses came by 6 or less points. In other words, getting the +7 they are being offered at it in this Monday night game would have resulted in a 4-2 ATS record the past 6 games. Also, one of the only two blowout losses the Giants have had the past six weeks was to the Patriots and the Cowboys are certainly not at New England's level. Yes, Dallas is off a huge blowout win over the Eagles but lets not forget Dallas lost 3 straight games prior to that both ATS and SU! The Giants have covered 4 of their last 6 games on Monday Night Football. The Cowboys, when off a home blowout win by a margin of 21 points or more, have gone 11-24 ATS! New York is 8-3 ATS when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. The Giants, after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games, are a perfect 5-0 ATS. The Cowboys have swept New York each of the past two seasons and, having already beaten the Giants earlier this season, you know the home team is going to be fired up for the division leaders and will do everything they can to avoid a 3rd straight season sweep at the hands of Dallas. Give me the hungry home dog in this one! 10* NEW YORK GIANTS |
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11-03-19 | Patriots v. Ravens +3.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #474 Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (+) vs New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - As everyone knows, a perfect season is very hard to attain! That said, when we get to the midway point in the season and there are still teams that are undefeated I look to go against them when the opportunity is right. I did that on Thursday with the Cardinals against the undefeated 49ers and though they didn't get the upset win they did get the cash at the betting window. I am doing the same thing on Sunday with the Ravens and, though I do expect the outright upset here, I am grabbing the points (some 3.5 available as of early Sunday morning). Baltimore is a great spot here as they are off their bye week and the Ravens have gone 13-4 ATS the last 17 times when off a bye week. Also, Baltimore enters this game on a 3-game winning streak and with plenty of momentum after their win by a 2-TD margin over the Seahawks in the Pacific Northwest. Of course it is hard to knock the Patriots as they are big winners year in and year out under the mastermind Bill Belichick and with Tom Brady at the controls. However, they do have a bye week on deck and last year prior to their bye week (also around this time of year) they went into Tennessee and promptly got crushed 34-10. The other important thing I want to talk about here is the Patriots schedule. The Pats have feasted on a plethora of weak opponents early this season. The Bills are the toughest team the Patriots have faced this season and they did not cover in that win. The rest of New England's schedule has been against teams with losing records including teams with just 0, 1, and 2 wins and we're now at the mid-way point of the season! Bad teams and the Pats really take a step up in level of opponent and the situation is perfect for an extremely strong game from a physical Ravens team ready to bring that physicality in a punishing way coming off their bye week. There is also a "tightener" relating to the Ravens off a bye week and that is that if they are off a bye and facing a non-divisional opponent, they've gone 11-1 ATS! I'll take it! 10* BALTIMORE |
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11-03-19 | Browns v. Broncos +4.5 | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Rotation #470 Sunday NFL 8* Denver Broncos (+) vs Cleveland Browns @ 4:25 ET - There has been an over-reaction here because of the injury to Broncos QB Joe Flacco. I expect Brandon Allen to surprise people with his level of play here. He also has mobility which is a plus. The key here though is we're now getting a very solid defense plus as many as 4.5 points and they are at home in this one and coming off a loss. Yes Denver's season has been a disappointment thus far but so too has the Browns season. Cleveland has struggled this year and, like the Broncos, has just 2 wins on the year. Also, the brash personality of Browns QB Baker Mayfield has put a target on the back of the Cleveland offense every time they step on the field. Defenses love "getting after it" when they face a QB who has a little too much bravado as they love to "put him in his place". Keep in mind, the Browns came into this season with very high expectations and they have fallen well short thus far. Trying to right the ship at a tough place to play and facing a tough defense...I just don't see it happening. The Browns beat the Broncos here late last season but Denver entered that game having beaten Cleveland 11 straight times and now it is payback time. The Browns struggle to stop the run and the Broncos have a respectable ground game and that will help Allen get acclimated into the offense here as Denver establishes the run. The Broncos defense allowed 30 points recently to the Chiefs but that was a fluke as KC only had 271 yards of offense in that game. Considering that as well as the fact that Denver has allowed an average of only 9.3 points per game in their other 3 recent games, you can see why I am expecting the Browns to struggle against this Broncos defense at Mile High! Give men the points with the home dog here. 8* DENVER |
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11-03-19 | Packers v. Chargers +4 | 11-26 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Rotation #472 Sunday 8* Los Angeles Chargers (+) vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - The Packers are a fantastic 7-1 SU on the season but if you take a look at their last 6 games it tells you why they are a bit over-valued here. Green Bay's wins included victories over Denver, Detroit, and Oakland. None of those teams have a winning record. The Packers lost to the Eagles and then, though they beat the Cowboys, Green Bay was heavily out-statted at Dallas. As for their most recent game GB took advantage of KC being without star QB Patrick Mahomes. Even facing the Chiefs without their star, the Packers still barely won that game. Now the Pack face a Chargers team that has a knack for playing tight games and yet GB is as high as a 4.5 point favorite in this one. I won't hesitate to grab the home dog here as LA also has momentum courtesy of finally getting a much-needed late game victory at Chicago last week. The Chargers lose so many tight games that this was a big confidence-booster for them and totally changes the morale of locker room heading into this match-up with a 7-1 Green Bay team. The strength of the Los Angeles defense is defending the pass and the Packers rely heavily on QB Rodgers and the passing attack. That said, the edge goes to LA here and that is particularly true because the Chargers edge is also the passing attack and they're now going against a defense that ranks in the bottom fourth of the NFL. Make no mistake about it, considering the Packers defensive production this season, they are very fortunate to be 7-1 at this point and that is why I am expecting an upset loss for GB here but I am grabbing the added insurance of having the points here in case LA loses on a late field goal as they so often seem to do. 8* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS |
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11-03-19 | Bears v. Eagles -4 | 14-22 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #458 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Chicago Bears @ 1 ET - The Eagles are getting healthier and getting some reinforcements on both sides of the ball for this one. After the ugly disappointment of their disaster at Dallas a few weeks ago, Philadelphia got it with a dominating win at Buffalo. They have a bye on deck next week and this is the Eagles only home game between early October and mid-November. In other words, they have had this game circled as a key game to notch the victory heading into their bye week and an upcoming showdown with the Patriots on the 17th. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS the last 6 times in a game before a bye week. They'll take advantage of facing a Bears team that is in a free-fall with 3 straight losses. Chicago's offense continues to struggle as last week was the 4th time in 7 games that the Bears have been held to 16 points or less. Also, prior to last week's tight loss to the Chargers, the Bears normally stout defense had allowed an average of 30 points in their two prior games. Chicago is in the wrong place at the wrong time to try and fix these types of problems. The Bears are 3-10 ATS their last 13 games against NFC East opponents. Of course Chicago would love to get revenge for last year's home playoff loss (a heart-breaker) to the Eagles but note also that the Bears are 0-3 ATS this season when off an upset loss as a favorite and that is the case here after another disheartening loss last week to the Chargers that was a winnable game. The Eagles were a small dog to the Bills in Buffalo last week and won the game by an 18 point margin. Philadelphia is 7-0 ATS the last 7 times off an upset win as an underdog. They'll again carry that momentum well here, especially with DeSean Jackson, Darren Sproles, and Tim Jernigan all listed as probable for this one. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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11-02-19 | Colorado +7 v. UCLA | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #345 Saturday 10* Top Play Colorado Buffaloes (+) @ UCLA Bruins @ 9 ET - The Bruins are playing better but they also have had some good fortune in the way the scheduling worked out recently and that helped them. UCLA has 3 wins this season and their first was the unforgettable 67-63 miracle comeback win at Washington State. However, their last two wins (they enter this game on a 2-game win streak) were helped by scheduling. They caught Stanford when the Cardinal were still celebrating their huge upset win of Washington as a double digit dog. Then the Bruins caught Arizona State last week after the Sun Devils had just played a very physical game against the Utes. It is never easy to play at Utah and ASU did that just prior to then facing UCLA. In other words, certainly the Bruins deserve some credit for their wins but there are some noteworthy aspects for sure. That said, I like backing Colorado now that they're getting a full +7 in this match-up. The Buffaloes have a knack for playing tight games as 5 of their last 7 games have been decided by 7 points or less. Colorado, other than when playing a vastly superior foe, tends to always be in their games because they have a dangerous offense. The match-up I like here is the Buffaloes #51 offense (yardage gained) facing a Bruins #114 defense (points allowed). The key is not just that match-up but the fact that the Buffs catch UCLA off B2B wins and that the Bruins were a small dog in each game. I could see UCLA being a little flat here after back to back upset wins and having a bye on deck. Bruins already thinking they could just coast into the bye. Note that the underdog is now 5-0 ATS in UCLA's last 5 games. Playing the underdog in Colorado games has produced a 5-2 ATS record in their last 7 games. The Buffaloes covered as a double digit dog against USC last week. The Bruins are 3-8 ATS when off an ATS cover by a double digit margin. 10* COLORADO |
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11-02-19 | UAB +13.5 v. Tennessee | 7-30 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #367 Saturday 8* UAB Blazers (+) @ Tennessee Volunteers @ 7 ET - UAB has been a team on the rise under head coach Bill Clark. They won 2 games the year before he arrived and have since recorded seasons of 6 wins, 8 wins, and 11 wins in succession. Now the Blazers are already 6-1 this season plus enter this game off a bye week. That said, the set up here is perfect because they are catching Tennessee off a massive upset win over South Carolina. The Volunteers were a home dog in that game and yet won the game by a 20 point margin. Certainly it is important to note that UAB has played a very weak schedule this season and, as we all know, it is not easy for the schools from weaker conferences when they travel to take on an SEC foe. However, this does not change the fact that the Blazers have won 17 of their last 21 games and are a team loaded with confidence as a result. They full believe (and expect) that they can go into Knoxville, TN and walk out a winner. Now that is certainly easier said than done but with the line moving even higher here on the Vols, I have no hesitation in backing a very dangerous underdog. Tennessee is off back to back huge SEC games at Alabama and then hosting the Gamecocks for the upset. Also, the Volunteers have another SEC game (at Kentucky) on deck. The Vols are an ugly 2-11 ATS when they face a non-conference opponent off a SU win by a double digit margin. The Volunteers are 1-8 ATS as non-conference favorites of 11.5 points or more. Also, here are a pair of perfect angles in play here! Tennessee is 0-11 ATS when facing an opponent that is off B2B SU/ATS wins. Also, the Volunteers are 0-9 ATS when off a SU win by 14.5 points or more. That puts this one in a 20-0 ATS spot for backing the Blazers! 8* UAB |
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11-02-19 | Army +16.5 v. Air Force | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #363 Saturday 8* Army Black Knights (+) @ Air Force Falcons @ 3:30 ET - Certainly Army is down this season after back to back very strong seasons. However, this is a rivalry game and this is simply too many points being offered to the Black Knights. Keep in mind, even though they have struggled at times (particularly on offense) this season Army is still allowing just 23 points per game on the season (compared to 22 for Air Force). Note that the home team has covered just 4 of the past 15 meetings between these teams. Also, even though the Black Knights are only 3-5 SU on the season, all five of Army's losses have come by a single digit margin. Now Air Force is being asked to cover more than two TD's against a team that hasn't lost a game by a double digit margin this season. I just don't see it. I know the Falcons have been playing very well but now in the past couple weeks they were at Hawaii and then also in a big home win versus Utah State last week. This will be their 8th straight week playing a game while Army had the benefit of a bye just a few weeks ago. The Falcons are just 2-7 ATS the last 9 times they have been a double digit favorite. The Black Knights are in their preferred dog role here and are also a perfect 6-0 ATS when they are a dog of 4.5 points or more and coming off B2B SU and ATS losses. That system is in play and goes to 7-0 Saturday. 8* ARMY |
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10-31-19 | 49ers v. Cardinals +10.5 | Top | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #302 Thursday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8:20 ET - The 49ers are 7-0 SU this season but the Cardinals are 8-0 SU in their last 8 games against San Francisco. Now, of course, I am not saying the Cards are going to win this game outright but I do feel we've got great home dog value in this match-up. The Niners are over-valued after their blowout win versus Carolina last week while Arizona is under-valued after their blowout loss at New Orleans last week. As strong as the 49ers have been, they haven't run away with the division just yet. That's because the Seahawks are right behind them and, up next for the Niners, a huge game on deck versus Seattle a week from Sunday. With that said, can the 49ers maintain full focus here and win this game by double digits on a short week? I am forecasting that the answer to that question is a no. The Cardinals entered last week's action on a 3-game winning streak but they ran into a buzzsaw as they faced a red hot Saints team that also got a big boost with the return of Drew Brees at QB! The Cards will perform much better back at home this week. When Arizona is a host, and facing an opponent off a win (both SU and ATS), they have covered 15 of the last 17 times! The fact the Cardinals are getting double digits in points here after the line move (originally line was around a TD) means we've got even more value to work with in this one. 10* ARIZONA |
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10-28-19 | Dolphins v. Steelers -14 | Top | 14-27 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #278 Monday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:15 ET - I know it may seem tough lay big points with a 2-4 Steelers team. However, keep in mind we're fading an 0-6 Dolphins team and Pittsburgh is at home and coming off a bye week. Also, Miami had scored an average of just 8.4 points per game in their first 5 games this season! Certainly the Dolphins showed a little more on offense last week but that came against a Bills team that promptly got blasted by the struggling Eagles yesterday. In other words, perhaps one shouldn't put too much weight into Miami's performance at Buffalo last week. Also, the Steelers are on a 4-0 ATS run. They've gone 2-1 SU in their last 3 games and the lone loss was in overtime. In regulation time Pittsburgh has allowed 14.3 points per game their past 3 games. Not only is the defense playing well but the offense gets QB Mason Rudolph back for this one. The most comparable game to this one is when the Steelers hosted Cincinnati on a Monday night. The Bengals were (and still are) win-less. Pittsburgh rolled Cincy by a margin of 24 points and that is what I am expecting here as well. The fact the line moved down from a 17 to a 14 means we've got even more line value here. I am going with my highest rating of a 10* Top Play as a result. Lay it as the Steelers make it 5 straight covers! 10* PITTSBURGH |
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10-27-19 | Packers v. Chiefs +5.5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #276 Sunday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs (+) vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - The Chiefs have no chance here without Pat Mahomes, right? Actually I feel better about Kansas City than most do heading into this situation. Keep in mind, this is still a quality team on both sides of the ball and it is not as if they are now turning to a rookie QB with zero NFL experience. The fact is that Matt Moore is a 35 year old veteran with plenty of NFL experience and he had to play many years on mediocre Dolphins teams. Now he is surrounded by teammates that are part of a legit Super Bowl contender. Having had a full week and a half to prepare for this game (after being thrown into the fire Thursday night at Denver), Moore will be ready here. The Packers laying nearly a full TD on the road in this one is simply too much. Keep in mind, Green Bay has had the luxury of a very favorable schedule as this is just their 2nd game away from Wisconsin in the past 7 weeks! Also, this will be just their 3rd game this season against a team that currently has a winning record. In the other two games (against Dallas and Minnesota) the Packers did get the win in each game but the stats tell the full story! Green Bay was outgained in both games and, in fact, was outgained by more than a total of 300 yards by the Cowboys and Vikings. Now the Packers take on a strong Chiefs team on the road and are laying nearly a TD...I don't think so! Green Bay struggles to run the ball on offense and their defense is suspect against both the run and the pass. The Chiefs strength on defense is against the pass and I also look for the KC defense to really ramp things up at home as they are fired up about hosting Aaron Rodgers and his high-flying Packers in this one. The Chiefs D will be ready and, on the other side of the ball, Moore will utilize his weapons very well and the KC offense will take advantage of Packers weak defense! 10* KANSAS CITY |
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10-27-19 | Panthers +5 v. 49ers | 13-51 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #269 Sunday 8* Carolina Panthers (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 4:05 ET - It looks easy to take the undefeated team here considering they are at home and laying a short number. However, in typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing the road dog in this one. Keep in mind, the Niners are off a road trip to the east coast last week as they were in Washington DC to take on the Redskins. Also, SF is actually on a 5-13 ATS run as a home favorite. Each of the last 6 meetings between these teams have seen Carolina get the cash! Also, the Panthers have covered 10 of their last 13 when they are a road dog and not facing a divisional opponent. I like the fact that Carolina is playing with plenty of confidence as they are 4-0 (both SU and ATS) with Allen at QB. Unlike San Francisco, the Panthers are very rested here as they are coming off their bye week. This one sets up well for big situational edges for the road dog and I am grabbing the points. I would not be surprised to see the 49ers unbeaten season come to an end here but I am grabbing the points as added insurance should the Panthers fall just short on the scoreboard. 8* CAROLINA |
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10-27-19 | Eagles +2.5 v. Bills | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #261 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Buffalo Bills @ 1 ET - After getting thoroughly embarrassed with their performance at Dallas on Sunday night, look for a tremendous response from the Eagles this week. Philadelphia will take advantage of a Bills team that is over-valued right now. Buffalo is off a win versus Miami last week but they were out-gained in that game. The Bills won the game but were not impressive and certainly the win was aided by a pair of Dolphins turnovers. Philly is on a 15-6 ATS run in games against AFC opponents. In regular season action, the Eagles are 13-0 ATS when they are on the road after a game in which they were held to 10 or less points! Also, Philadelphia is 6-0 ATS when they are off B2B SU losses and facing a team off a SU win by a double digit margin (Bills won by 10 last week). The Eagles already cashed in this role earlier this season when they upset the Packers at Lambeau Field! Bills head coach Sean McDermott is 1-5 ATS when off B2B SU wins. Also, in games 5 through 8 of a season, Buffalo is 2-10 ATS when at home and facing an opponent off a SU loss by a double digit margin. As you can see, great situational edge here for the road dog in this one. Also, included in the strong trending above, a pair of perfect angles combining for a 19-0 ATS mark in support of the Eagles in this match-up. The public is considering the Eagles a dead team after B2B poor road performances. When a team is most under-valued, it is the best time to step in. Hungry road dog gets it done here! 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-26-19 | Notre Dame v. Michigan +1 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #208 Saturday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines (+) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 7:30 ET - Once again I am making a top side play that is contrarian to public opinion. This line was around a -2.5 on Michigan and now the Wolverines are the underdog in this match-up. Once again the public thinks there has been some kind of mistake here as, after all, Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh so often loses the bigger games. Long-time followers know how I feel about supposed "mistakes" by the odds-makers. There is a REASON why the odds makers made the lower-ranked team the favorite. Yes Notre Dame is in the top ten while the Wolverines are barely hanging on in the top 25 but I like a couple key factors here. One is that this game is at Michigan and the host is 8-1 (both SU and ATS) in the last 9 meetings between these teams. Another key I like here is that the Wolverines have played the tougher schedule. Michigan got embarrassed at Wisconsin earlier this season but they've been a different team ever since and actually outgained the Nittany Lions by over 130 yards last week and had a huge 26-14 edge in first downs. The Wolverines didn't get what they deserved on the scoreboard at Penn State but they'll make up for that here at home. The only truly tough match-up for Notre Dame this season has been facing Georgia. The Irish lost that game. I know the Fighting Irish have the better offense in this match-up but the Wolverines have the better defense and the home field edge and Michigan is ready to make the most of what is their one and only home game out of a 6-week stretch from early Oct to mid-Nov. The Wolverines lost at Notre Dame by a TD in the season opener last year. That is noteworthy here as Michigan is 5-0 ATS the last 5 times they have been at home and playing with revenge against an opponent with a winning percentage of .899 or less. The Wolverines already rode their defense to a big home revenging win earlier this season when they held Iowa to just 3 points in avenging a loss in their prior meeting with the Hawkeyes. Look for payback here and take advantage of additional line value offered by the line move in this one. Notre Dame has had a very home-friendly schedule this season and now drops to 1-2 SU on the season away from home with losses to the Bulldogs and the Wolverines! 10* MICHIGAN |
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10-26-19 | Miami-FL +4.5 v. Pittsburgh | 16-12 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #189 Saturday 8* Miami Hurricanes (+) @ Pittsburgh Panthers @ Noon ET - QB N'Kosi Perry has been upgraded to probable for the Hurricanes in this one and is expected to get the start. He has completed 60% of his passes and has 7 TDs against just 1 INT since moving into the primary QB role this month. Miami is off a disappointing OT loss to Georgia Tech last week and, as a result, will bring their "A game" on the road at Pittsburgh this week. The Panthers are just 2-11 SU in their last 13 games against Miami but are favored here due to being at home plus the Canes recent disappointment. That said, the result is great line value in a spot like this. Pittsburgh has won 4 straight games but they have not won 5 straight games in TEN years! Also, the Panthers 4 wins have all come by just a single score. Prior to being Syracuse by a TD last week, Pitt's 3 prior wins in this streak all came by 3 or less points. I see great value here with catching, as of early game day morning, +4.5 with the Hurricanes in this one. The Orange team that the Panthers beat last week by a TD is really down this season. Syracuse wins have come against Liberty, Holy Cross, and a MAC team. In other words, don't put too much stock into the Panthers beating Syracuse. Pitt's most recent home game is also quite telling as they won by just 3 points against Delaware! The Panthers were a 30 point favorite in that game and yet scored only 17 points! Now Pitt faces a tough Hurricanes defense off a disappointing loss. The last time Miami visited Pittsburgh, 2 years ago, they entered the game 10-0 on the season but the Panthers upset them. The Canes got some payback with last year's home win but they still want to get it done AT Pittsburgh as well. They won't let this opportunity pass them by! Grab the handful of points here but we shouldn't need them. 8* MIAMI |
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10-24-19 | SMU v. Houston +14.5 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #104 Thursday 10* Top Play Houston Cougars (+) vs SMU Mustangs @ 7:30 ET - With SMU off a blowout win over Temple and Houston off an unimpressive win against a bad UConn team, the markets are shaded heavily toward the Mustangs here. In typical contrarian fashion I am on the Cougars here! Give me the big points with the home dog as Houston is known for playing much better at home and also they get their QB back this week after he missed last week's game and the Cougars were down to #3 on the depth chart with Logan Holgorsen. Houston will have Clayton Tune back this week and I look for him to atone for his 3 INT performance in his most recent game as that was against a tough Cincinnati defense. Note that SMU has allowed an average of 30 points per game in their 3 road games this season! Also, the Mustangs are overvalued here because they have been a covering machine this season. The Cougars have done well in the big dog role and I fully expect that to continue here as you know Houston will be "up" for this game against an in-state conference foe that is undefeated on the season and also ranked in the top 25. This is a big game for the Cougars that they are relishing to have at home and with the ESPN cameras rolling! Houston is a perfect 4-0 ATS when off a SU road win in conference action. As a dog of +1.5 or more, the Cougars are 15-3-1 their last 19 games. More of the same expected here! SMU is 0-4 ATS when off a win by a double digit margin over a conference rival. Not only are the Mustangs off the big win over the Owls last week, they also have a huge game with Memphis on deck. 10* HOUSTON |
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10-20-19 | Eagles +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #473 Sunday NFL 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - Dallas has lost 3 straight games. That said, the ability to get +3 in going against them in a huge divisional rivalry game is an absolutely massive value. Keep in mind, the Cowboys have 3 wins this season and those came against teams that are now a combined 3-14 on the season. The Eagles, like Dallas, are only 3-3 on the season but they at least have one signature win as they handed Green Bay (now 5-1) their only loss of the season. That is the same Packers team that beat the Cowboys. Also, Philly absolutely dominated the Jets and the Cowboys are off a loss to the Jets in New York last week. The Eagles are getting a little help back in the secondary this week and that will be a key against Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. Note that Dallas has beaten Philly 3 straight times but one of those victories was the meaningless season finale two years ago when the Eagles were resting players for their playoff run which culminated in a Super Bowl Title. That said though, Philadelphia certainly hasn't forgotten about being swept by their most hated rivals since taking home the Lombardi trophy! It is payback time Sunday night in Big D and right now, Carson Wentz is playing more consistently than Prescott. Wentz has one more TD toss and HALF as many picks as Prescott so far this season. Also, the Eagles rush defense is one of the best in the league and Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott has struggled against top competition this season. When Philly is playing with revenge against an NFC foe and the Eagles are on the road and entering the game off an ugly ATS loss by a double digit margin, they are 8-1 ATS! After getting embarrassed at Minnesota last week, the Eagles come out with fire this week and get their revenge. Look for the Eagles to get the upset but I'll grab the points as added insurance. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-20-19 | Vikings v. Lions +2.5 | 42-30 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #458 Sunday 8* Detroit Lions (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - The Lions are on a short week coming off a Monday Night trip to Lambeau Field. However, the set-up here is otherwise perfect. Detroit is back at home after falling just short against the Packers. The Lions catch the Vikings off a huge win over the Eagles last week. Detroit has double revenge here from getting swept by Minnesota last season. Also, the Vikings have struggled early this season on the road in divisional action as they already lost at Green Bay and Chicago. The Lions have covered 6 of their last 8 games overall. The Vikings, in games 5 through 8 of a season, when on the road after an ATS win by a double digit margin, have gone 2-9 ATS. In other words, don't be surprised if they fall flat away from home after trouncing Philly in Minnesota last week. As for the Lions, they are on a 4-0 ATS run but have lost SU each of the last two weeks. Note that, under head coach Matt Patricia, the Lions are 4-1 ATS when they enter a game off consecutive SU losses. Detroit, in games 5 through 8 of a season, when facing a team with a winning record are 10-2 ATS when coming off a SU loss in divisional action! After getting swept by the Vikings last season, the Lions respond in their first opportunity against them this season. 8* DETROIT |
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10-19-19 | Army v. Georgia State +5 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #324 Saturday 8* Georgia State Panthers (+) vs Army Black Knights @ 7 ET - The Panthers coaching staff includes personnel very familiar with the option. That gives Georgia State an added edge here that most teams don't have when facing Army. Additionally, the Black Knights offense has actually struggled this season and ranks #117 in the nation based on total yardage. Conversely, the Panthers offense ranks 19th in the nation based on total yardage. I am aware of the fact that Army has the much better ranking defense in this match-up. But again, the fact that the Black Knights are now running into a team whose coaches have experience in how to defense the option attack which Army employs certainly gives a bit of an edge there. Additionally, the way the Georgia State offense has been playing, I don't see Army being able to shut them down. The Panthers also have the home field edge here and have scored 31 or more points in 5 of their 6 games this season! This is just the 3rd home game of the season for Georgia State and, in the first two, they scored an average of 50 points per game! Last week's loss at Western Kentucky was the 3rd time this season that Army has been held to 14 points or less. The Black Knights have now lost back to back games SU and are also on an 0-3 ATS run. On the other hand, Georgia State is off back to back wins and covers. Momentum clearly in favor of the Panthers in this one and I'll grab the home dog as they stay hot. 8* GEORGIA STATE |
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10-19-19 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -4 | Top | 45-27 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #390 Saturday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Baylor Bears @ 4 ET - The Bears are 6-0 on the season and, for the first time under head coach Rhule, are ranked in the top 25. That said, the odds makers must have made some kind of mistake here, right? After all, how can the unranked Cowboys be favored over a Baylor team that has won 8 straight games dating back to last season? Exactly! Don't be fooled. It is no mistake. The odds makers know what they are doing. The Bears are off a tough game where they had to rally to force OT and ended up winning in double-OT over Texas Tech. Keep in mind, this was a game in which Baylor was favored by double digits so, in other words, quite unimpressive. Speaking of unimpressive, look at the Bears schedule this season! That said, they now face their toughest test of the season and I like an Oklahoma State team playing at home and that comes in rested off a bye week last week! The situation is set up perfect for the Cowboys to roll at home and their potent offense won't take their foot off the gas either. That's because last year the Bears took it to Oklahoma State and won the game 35-31. Now it is time for payback! The Cowboys are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 home games against Baylor. Also, note that the host has won 8 of the last 9 meetings between these teams SU. While the Bears are off a dramatic win last week, the Cowboys suffered a loss by 10 to the Red Raiders two weeks ago at Texas Tech. That was prior to the OSU bye. That is noteworthy here as Oklahoma State is 7-0 ATS the last 7 times in their first game after playing Texas Tech. Also, when playing with extra rest following a SU loss by a double digit margin, the Cowboys are 9-1 ATS! 10* OKLAHOMA STATE |
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10-19-19 | Purdue +18 v. Iowa | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #343 Saturday 8* Purdue Boilermakers (+) @ Iowa Hawkeyes @ Noon ET - Ideal set up for grabbing a huge underdog in what should actually be a very competitive game. Of course in comparing Iowa and Purdue, the Hawkeyes are the much better team and plus are at home for this one. However, the Boilermakers enter this game off a confidence-boosting 40-14 win over Maryland and they catch Iowa off very physical and emotionally draining losses at Michigan and versus Penn State the past two weeks. Of course the Hawkeyes want to get back into the win column and I certainly expect them to do that here. However, how much will they have left in the tank in terms of truly putting on a beatdown of a Big Ten rival that will certainly have no shortage of emotion for this game. This spread is around 18 and, keep in mind, the Hawkeyes have been held to scoring 18 points or less in 3 of their past 4 games. Also, Purdue is playing their 7th game of the season and they've only had 2 ugly losses this season. The Boilermakers other 2 losses were tight and, with last week's win over the Terrapins, they now have 2 SU wins this season as well. The visitor is actually 9-0 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these teams and the Boilermakers do have a history of playing well here. They made some changes to their O-line last week and their back-up QB had a huge game as a result. Iowa, of course, has a very tough defense, but this road dog has some confidence now and the Hawkeyes defensive energy is a little worn down after facing the Wolverines and Nittany Lions the past two weeks. 8* PURDUE |
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10-18-19 | Marshall v. Florida Atlantic -5 | Top | 36-31 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #310 Friday 10* Top Play Florida Atlantic Owls (-) vs Marshall Thundering Herd @ 6:30 ET - The Owls got blasted at Marshall last season and are looking forward to revenge here at home. Florida Atlantic is lead by head coach Lane Kiffin and he is on a 13-6 ATS run in games against Conference USA opponents. The Thundering Herd have been trending the other direction as they have lost the money in 13 of their past 18 games! Marshall is off a non-covering win against a bad Old Dominion team and the Thundering Herd entered that game having scored an average of just 16.8 points per game in their 4 prior games. That has a lot to with QB Green not exactly "lighting it up" for the Thundering Herd. On the other hand, Owls QB Robison certainly has been strong this season for FAU. With a very manageable number at home I have no hesitation in laying the short number here. In Kiffin's first year on the job the Owls went 9-0 in conference action in 2017. However, in 2018 they went only 3-5 SU. Of those 5 SU losses, 3 of the opponents were to be faced by FAU again this season. Those 3 were Charlotte, Middle Tennessee, and Marshall. So far the Owls are 2-0 on the revenge tour with wins over the 49ers and Blue Raiders. Now it is time to make it a 3-0 revenge tour sweep by knocking off the Thundering Herd and I look for the Owls to do just that! 10* FLORIDA ATLANTIC |
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10-17-19 | Chiefs -3 v. Broncos | Top | 30-6 | Win | 102 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #303 Thursday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs (-) @ Denver Broncos @ 8:20 ET - Broncos off a home shutout win while the Chiefs are off a home upset loss. That makes this the perfect set up for backing the small home favorite. Patrick Mahomes (ankle) has been upgraded to probable for this game. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid's teams are 11-3 ATS when they enter a game off a straight up loss in non-divisional action and are facing a team off a straight up win. KC is now off back to back losses after a 4-0 start while the Broncos are off back to back wins after an 0-4 start. That makes this the ideal spot to back Kansas City. Denver has gotten the cash just once in their last seven meetings with the Chiefs and the Broncos have not gotten the cash a single time in their last five as a host in this series! There is an old adage about "defense wins football games" and I am well aware of the fact that Denver has the much better defense in this match-up. However, not only is Kansas City's offense much better than the Broncos offensive attack, this one is also simply very strong from a situational standpoint. I don't see KC losing 3 straight and I don't see the Broncos winning 3 straight. That said, I have no hesitation in taking advantage of the line move here and laying the short number with the Chiefs. 10* KANSAS CITY |
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10-17-19 | UL-Lafayette -6 v. Arkansas State | 37-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show | |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #305 Thursday 8* UL-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (-) @ Arkansas State @ 7:30 ET - UL Lafayette is off a low-scoring loss but they faced a tough Appalachian State team. Now the Ragin Cajuns face the struggling defense of Arkansas State and I expect this one will turn into a road road. UL Lafayette entered their game against the Mountaineers having averaged nearly 550 yards and 45 points per game! Their offense will surely bounce back against a Red Wolves defense that has been hurt (literally) by injuries this season. Arkansas State has allowed averages of 45 points per game and over 600 yards a game the past month. The Ragin Cajuns are on a 7-1 ATS run (not including bowl game) in their last 8 games played away from home! The road warriors get the job done again Thursday as they bounce back off their first ATS loss of the season. Arkansas State is off a bye week which was preceded by them getting blasted 52-38 at Georgia State. The Red Wolves are 0-6 ATS when they are a dog of 6.5 points or less and off a game in which they allowed 36 points or more. The Ragin Cajuns are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams. 8* UL LAFAYETTE |
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10-13-19 | Titans +2 v. Broncos | Top | 0-16 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #271 Sunday NFL 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans (+) @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET - The Titans lost to the Bills by 7 points last week but they missed 4 field goals in that game! As for the Broncos, they are off their first win of the season and it was an upset win at Los Angeles over the Chargers. After that big road win over a division rival, Denver is in the perfect spot to take a tumble back down to reality this week. The win last week for the Broncos was their first ATS cover too in their past 9 games! As for the Titans, they have covered 5 of their last 6 non-divisional road games. Tennessee's strength on offense is their running game. The Broncos weakness on the other side of the ball is stopping the run. That said, and with Denver off a win and the Titans off a loss, the road dog is the play here! In games 5 through 8 of a season, when Tennessee is off a SU loss and facing an opponent off an outright upset win as an underdog, the Titans have gone 9-2 ATS. Also when in games 5 through 8 of a season and off an ATS loss where they missed covering by a double digit margin, the Titans have gone 9-2 ATS in their next game when that game is against an opponent with a losing record on the season. The Broncos, in games 5 through 8 of a season, are 0-7 ATS off a divisional game and facing an opponent off a non-divisional game. Another issue for Denver here is they have a huge game coming up Thursday as it is a divisional game hosting the Chiefs. That makes this a sandwich spot for the Broncos (off a big divisional game and with a big divisional game up next). The fact their next game is Thursday also hurts Denver in this one. Look for the Titans to get the upset. 10* TENNESSEE |
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10-13-19 | 49ers v. Rams -3 | 20-7 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #266 Sunday NFL 8* Los Angeles Rams (-) vs San Francisco 49ers @ 4:05 ET - This line opened up in the 4.5 range and is now down to a -3 as of early game day morning. In typical contrarian fashion I am going against the line move and backing the favorite in this one. I had my eyes on this match-up when the lines first came out as the Niners are off to a surprising 4-0 start this season but off a Monday night game versus the Browns. Now San Francisco catches an angry Rams team off back to back losses. Los Angeles laid an egg two weeks ago in their loss to Tampa Bay two weeks ago. Then they fell short at Seattle in the Thursday night game last week. The Rams missed a late field goal that would have won the game. That said, LA has plenty of motivation here plus they have a significant rest edge since they played on Thursday of last week while the Niners are on a short week since they played on Monday. Los Angeles is on an 8-3 ATS run in divisional action while the 49ers have failed to cover 5 of their last 6 in NFC West action. This is the perfect spot to back a Rams team that blasted San Francisco by an average margin of 22.5 points per game in their two meetings last season. Yes I know the Niners were without Garoppolo in those games but LA didn't exactly just squeak by in those games either. Lay the short number here! 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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10-13-19 | Eagles +3.5 v. Vikings | 20-38 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #261 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - Revenge game for Eagles after the Vikings (who had playoff revenge) handed Philly a 2 point loss in their meeting last season in Philadelphia. Now Minnesota is laying 3.5 points here after they ran all over the Giants last week. The Vikings won't be able to run like that this week as they face an Eagles run defense that ranks #1 in the NFL. That said, the game is in the hands of Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins. Of course there has been a lot of negative talk going on around (and within!) the Vikings organization when it comes to their QB situation. That was quieted last week because they ran the ball so well but that was against a weak Giants team. Now the Vikes face a Super Bowl contender known for stout run defense. This match-up sets up perfectly for the Eagles as a sizable underdog here. Philadelphia has covered 6 of its last 8 games as a non-divisional road dog. This game will come down to Carson Wentz and Cousins. That said, whom do you want running your offense in crunch time? Not only do we get Wentz here, we get more than a field goal on our side. Although I am making this play fully expecting an outright Eagles win, I could certainly see this game being decided on a late-game field goal as well. In other words, there is a lot of value with having the 3.5 points on your side in this one! 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-12-19 | Nebraska +7.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 7-34 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #129 Saturday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (+) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 7:30 ET - I am aware of the injury issues for the Huskers and that includes QB Adrian Martinez and WR JD Speilman. My sources are indicating both will play at Minnesota tonight. If that would end up not happening, the fact is that I still expected Nebraska to get the cover here and they absolutely have a shot at the outright upset too. The Golden Gophers are 5-0 on the season but they are so vastly over-rated at this point. Minnesota has seen 4 of their 5 wins come by 7 points or less and, keep in mind, their schedule has been very weak. The Gophers have beaten South Dakota State (FCS School), Fresno State (2 OT), and Georgia Southern (Sun Belt school). Their two big ten wins came against Purdue (QB Sindelar HURT) and Illinois (one of worst Big Ten programs). Now Minnesota faces a Nebraska team that is 4-2 on the season and that blew a huge lead in an OT loss at Colorado and whose only other loss was against a Ohio State team that is one of the best teams in the nation this year on BOTH sides of the ball. That said, the Huskers are flying under the radar a bit heading into this contest. As for Minny, their 5-0 record has them a little over-hyped right now and I feel an upset is going to be the end result in this one Saturday night. If the Huskers fall short of that they'll still get the cover in my opinion. The Cornhuskers hammered Minnesota by 25 points last year and have won and covered in 3 of the last 4 meetings. Nebraska has covered 22 of their last 32 road games. If Martinez can't go or gives it a go and then must exit, note that Noah Vedral has a dozen games of experience and the back-up QB did lead the game winning drive last week. The Corhuskers lone loss (ATS and SU) in their last 4 meetings with the Golden Gophers was in their last visit to Minnesota. The Huskers got hammered in that one in 2017 and now it is payback time. 10* NEBRASKA |
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10-12-19 | Washington State +1 v. Arizona State | 34-38 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CFB Rotation #147 Saturday 8* Washington State Cougars (+) @ Arizona State Sun Devils @ 3:30 ET - I still feel Arizona State is over-rated. Yes they are off a win at Cal which preceded their bye week. However, the Golden Bears are looking less impressive as each week goes by. As for the Sun Devils, the last time they were at home they did lose to Colorado. They face a tougher challenge now in this home game and ASU's early season hype had a lot to do with a D that didn't allow many points in their first 3 games. However, Arizona State faced Kent State, Sacramento State and Michigan State. Of course the only tough opponent in that grouping was the Spartans and they put up over 400 yards of offense in the game but poor play-calling and turnovers led to Michigan State scoring just 7 points in the game. Now Arizona State faces a Washington State team that is also off a bye week but in a different frame of mind than the Sun Devils right now. That's because the Cougars got blasted at Utah prior to their bye. They can't wait to get on the field as that game was preceded by the insane 67-63 loss to UCLA that was at home for Washington State. The Cougars are in big-time "payback mode" here and ready to resume their early season winning. There is a reason this line was set the way it was (pick'em range) even though ASU is at home and the Cougars are off B2B losses. In other words, don't be fooled as the road team is the play in this one! 8* WASHINGTON STATE |
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10-12-19 | Michigan State v. Wisconsin -9.5 | 0-38 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CFB Rotation #178 Saturday 8* Wisconsin Badgers (-) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 3:30 ET - The Spartans offense and play-calling is horrible. That said, even though they have a respectable defense, they aren't going to be able to hang around in this game. Keep in mind, Michigan State is just 2-4 ATS on the season for a reason. They underachieve. They managed only 7 points in a loss to Arizona State and that was at home. In their most recent road game they did face a strong Ohio State team so is understandable they only scored 10 points there. But that game also was just last week. This is a horrible spot for the Spartans from a scheduling standpoint. They had to go toe to toe on the road last week with one of the best teams in the nation last week and then they follow it up by making a road trip the very next week to Wisconsin. It doesn't get much worse than that for a team that struggles to consistently score against strong teams. Note that the Spartans now face a rested Badgers team that has allowed an average of just 5.8 points per game on the season! I say "rested" because Wisconsin was able to rest guys last week thanks to a 48-0 plastering of Kent State! Also, the Badgers have been at home ever since their opening season road trip to South Florida in August! This scheduling situation is fantastic for Wisconsin and horrible for Michigan State and now we take advantage! Spartans on the road for the 3rd time in 4 weeks. The Badgers have been at home in Madison the entire month of September and first two weeks of October. 8* WISCONSIN |
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10-12-19 | Cincinnati v. Houston +7.5 | 38-23 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CFB Rotation #172 Saturday 8* Houston Cougars (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 3:30 ET - Once the Cougars had their #1 QB and WR redshirt for this season after 4 games, they were left for dead by most pundits. However, this Houston team has depth at both those positions and their first game after the announcements saw the Cougars knock off North Texas by 3 touchdowns. Since then they have had a bye week and now they host Cincinnati before a trip to face a bad Connecticut team next week. In other words, Houston is certainly focused and rested for this opportunity this week as a host against a ranked Bearcats team. The Cougars are catching Cincy at a good time to upset them as the Cats are off an upset win over Central Florida last week. Keep in mind that was the Bearcats first upset win over a ranked foe in 10 years! That emotional game could leave Cincy a little flat here but there is no doubt the Cougars are up for this game. Houston is off a bye week and playing their only home game in a 5-week stretch! Head coach Fickell for Cincy has failed to cover 9 of the last 12 times he was a favorite by 9.5 points or less. The Cougars have failed to cover only 4 times the last 20 regular season games in which they were an underdog. This one has upset written all over it and, if the Cougars do fall short, I expect it to be by just a field goal. 8* HOUSTON |
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10-12-19 | Oklahoma -9.5 v. Texas | 34-27 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #125 Saturday 8* Oklahoma Sooners (-) vs Texas Longhorns @ Noon ET - Many will look at this game and say it is too many points to lay. After all, the last five regular season meetings have been decided by a TD or less. In typical contrarian fashion I am laying the points. The Longhorns have issues defending the pass and this weakness is made even more concerning by the fact that Texas has injuries in its defensive backfield as well. The Sooners have allowed an average of just 16 points per game their past 4 games. The Longhorns have allowed 30 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. The Sooners hammered the Horns in last year's Big 12 Championship Game and I am looking for more of the same here. These teams are close in the rankings and this is a neutral site game. That said, the odds makers are well aware of that and also very aware, of course, that the the recent history between these teams would suggest a tight game. Like I said, they knew all that and yet still opened this line up at double digits. They know what they're doing and so do we! Lay it! 8* OKLAHOMA |
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10-10-19 | Giants +17.5 v. Patriots | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #103 Thursday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - This is simply too many points. Yes, I am aware of the history rookie quarterbacks have when visiting Foxboro for the first time against Belichick and Brady. However, I am also aware that the Giants have covered 12 of their last 18 in non-conference action and 7 of their last 9 as a road dog. Also, certainly I would never argue the fact that New England is a great team. They prove themselves year in an year out. However, before you go announcing them as Super Bowl champions this season, note that they have played only one tough team (Buffalo) this season. Note that the struggling Steelers they faced are 1-4 on the season. Additionally, the Patriots other 3 games were against the Jets, Dolphins and Redskins. Those teams are a combined 0-13 SU on the season! Not exactly a powerhouse schedule that the Pats have faced thus far. That being said, don't be surprised when the scrappy Giants hang around in this one and get the cover as massive underdogs. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS |
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10-09-19 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #102 Wednesday 10* Top Play UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (pick) vs Appalachian State Mountaineers @ 8 ET - This line is right around a "pick'em" even though the Mountaineers are undefeated this season and have also won each of their last 6 meetings with the Ragin' Cajuns. Long-time followers know how I feel about spots like this. I am going contrarian here. This line will be so attractive to those wanting to back Appalachian State for their SU winning streaks (this season and in this series) to continue. As usual I am going against the grain and backing the other side here. However, it certainly is not without plenty of logic. For one thing UL-Lafayette is not lacking for motivation as they lost in the regular season and in the Sun Belt playoff game versus the Mountaineers last season. Also, though both offenses are rolling early this season, the difference in this match-up is the way the defenses have been playing. While Appalachian State is allowing 420 yards per game, the Ragin' Cajuns have shown improvement on defense this season and are allowing only 345 yards per game. When entering a revenge game on a winning streak of 2 or more games SU (in this case 4 straight), Louisiana is 6-0 ATS! UL-Lafayette is also 9-1 ATS versus a conference opponents with a winning percentage of .667 or better. The Ragin' Cajuns are also 6-0 ATS in their game preceding facing Arkansas State. The Mountaineers are 1-6 ATS when when facing an opponent with revenge that is coming off a SU win by a double digit margin. Plenty of support for a play on the home team here and keep in mind Appalachian State had a new coach this year as Scott Satterfield is now the head man at Louisville. The Ragin' Cajuns finally get over the hump against the Mountaineers. This is the year the streak snaps! 10* UL-LAFAYETTE |
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10-07-19 | Browns +5 v. 49ers | Top | 3-31 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #477 Monday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - In my analysis of yesterday's play on the Packers I noted how over-rated the Cowboys were because their 3-0 start was helped tremendously by playing 3 teams that now are a combined 2-12 on the season! Now we have a similar situation here. The 49ers are coming off their bye week (by the way they have ZERO wins - SU or ATS - the L7 times off a bye) and San Francisco enters this week with a perfect 3-0 record. Note that the Niners have played Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh. Those 3 teams are a combined 3-12 on the season. Now, I am not saying that Dallas is a bad team or San Francisco is a bad team. I am merely stating that each of these teams is a little over-rated right now in my opinion. I went against the Cowboys in each of their games since their 3-0 start and I won with New Orleans and Green Bay in doing so. Now I will take a scrappy Browns team against go against the 49ers after their 3-0 start. When bettors think of Cleveland they can't help but think of their opening game debacle against the Titans and that is part of the reason there is current value with the Browns. Cleveland did catch a break with the Jets on their schedule but their other games were against Tennessee, the Rams, and Baltimore. All 3 of those teams are tougher than the teams the Niners have faced this season. The Titans went 9-7 last year and just missed the post-season, the Ravens went to the playoffs, and LA went to the Super Bowl. Don't underestimate the Browns here and catching 5 points with them is an absolute high value spot as it makes even a 4-point loss a win at the betting window and I look for Cleveland to be in this one all the way! By the way, the Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against NFC opponents and I also look for them to move to 9-3 ATS their last dozen games in a road dog role as they get the cash here! 10* CLEVELAND |
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10-06-19 | Colts +11 v. Chiefs | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #475 Sunday 8* Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:20 ET - Make no mistake the Chiefs are a great football team but the situation here is perfect (literally!) to back the Colts. Not only is Indianapolis 6-0 / 100% their last 6 when playing in a game prior to a bye week, the Colts also have playoff revenge from last season. Additionally, I like the fact that the Chiefs are off a nail-biter last minute win at Detroit last week while Indy is off a disappointing home loss to the Raiders. Again, the set up here is literally perfect. I am not saying I expect the Colts to win outright but I am saying I expect this game to be decided by no more than a TD which means we've got great value here with the big points. Keep in mind, when lines were out this summer this line was closer to a -4 and now we're seeing -11 on this game for KC. Of course this has a lot to do with Andrew Luck's retirement but this is an over-adjustment in my mind. Also, the Chiefs defense continues to be an area of weakness and though Kansas City does hold the edge in terms of overall offense, the Colts have had the better ground game this season. Couple that with the better defense overall and you can make a case for Indy being "in this one" all the way! Under Frank Reich, the Colts are 6-1 ATS when they face a team with a winning record that is off a non-divisional game. By the way, while it is true that the Chiefs are undefeated on the season it also true that each of their last two wins have been very tight games. Also, 3 of Kansas City's 4 games have come against non-playoff teams that had a combined record of 15-33 last season. The Colts are well-coached and will give KC all they can handle in this one. Look for another tight Chiefs win. 8* INDIANAPOLIS |
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10-06-19 | Packers +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #473 Sunday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - It was great to watch the over-rated Cowboys flounder when they finally faced a formidable opponent last week. The Saints didn't even have Drew Brees and yet still beat Dallas even though the game was very poorly officiated. As per usual the flags seemed heavy against New Orleans and light against the Cowboys and yet even that wasn't enough to rescue "America's Team". Now instead of facing a back-up QB the Cowboys face Aaron Rodgers and he was on fire for the Packers in their home loss to Philadelphia last week Thursday. Yes Green Bay fell short in that game but they did outgain the Eagles by a substantial margin. Lets not forget that Dallas' wins have come against the Dolphins and Redskins and Giants. The former two teams are still winless on the season and New York is fortunate to be 2-2. The Giants only beat TB because of a late missed chipshot FG by the Bucs and then the G-men got another win because of facing the floundering Redskins. The point is that Dallas still hasn't proven they can beat a good team this season and yet many are already pronouncing them as the NFC representative in the Super Bowl. As for the Packers, their wins including knocking off quality defenses in the Bears and the Vikings. Now the Cowboys face an angry GB team after a home loss on national TV in a game in which they were favored. Note that, even though this is a revenge game for Dallas, the fact is the Packers have had their number. Also, in Games 5 through 8 of a season, when the Packers have a winning record but are an underdog and are facing a team that also has a winning record and has revenge too, GB is actually a stellar 10-1 ATS in this situation! Additionally, note that the Cowboys are 0-11 ATS as a conference favorite of 3.5 points or less when they are facing a team with a winning percentage of .667 or greater. That system also fits here. The Packers got punched in the mouth by the Eagles ground game last week. They'll come ready to play this week after that debacle and there is no doubting the offense of the Pack will be the toughest offensive unit that Dallas will have faced this season! 10* GREEN BAY |
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10-06-19 | Cardinals +3 v. Bengals | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #455 Sunday 8* Arizona Cardinals (+) @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 1 ET - While it may seem hard to take any winless team on the road catching only a field goal, it is not as tough when the team you're playing against is Cincinnati. The Bengals looked like absolute garbage on Monday night. Now the fact is one should never put too much weight into just one game but the key here is that the Bengals were 0-3 and facing a division rival on Monday night football. That is the type of game that EVERY team in the NFL gets up for! That said, to see a lifeless Cincinnati team look like absolute trash in a situation like that says an awful lot about just how bad of a mess things are with the Bengals franchise right now. Conversely, the Cardinals at least are showing signs of life. Yes they lost by 17 to the Seahawks last week but the stats in that game were roughly equal. In other words, it was a bit of a "phony" final score. Also, the Cards rallied in the first game of the season to force OT. The fact is Arizona, unlike Cincinnati, is at least showing signs of life under their young head coach and rookie QB. I would not be surprised to see them get the outright upset here but certainly have no hesitation in grabbing the 3 points in this one. The Bengals are 1-9 ATS as a favorite of 6.5 points or less when they enter a game off an ATS loss by a double digit margin. 8* ARIZONA |
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10-05-19 | Rice +10.5 v. UAB | Top | 20-35 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #359 Saturday 10* Rice Owls (+) @ UAB Blazers @ 7 ET - Rice is in their second season under head coach Mike Bloomgreen and they have turned into the type of scrappy underdog that no one wants to face. It is a slow process but he has made great strides this season thanks to it being his 2nd year with the program and the fact that the Owls returned players with a lot of playing experience from last season. Conversely, even though UAB is an 11-win team from last season, they lost as much (if not the most) playing experience from last season's team and this is out of 130 FBS teams in the nation. Of course this is why the Blazers (11 wins last season) are not an even heavier favorite against a Rice team that entered this season having only won a total of 3 games the past two seasons. I love looking for spots like this because the marketplace is simply behind the power curve in a situation like this and the Owls make for a dangerous dog in this spot. Rice does have a bye week on deck and the Blazers could be guilty of looking right past them and underestimating them. That is because UAB blasted the Owls 42-0 last year and that game was at Rice. Remember what I said about the coach and about experience above? The fact is that Bloomgreen and his players remember all too well the embarrassment of that ugly home shutout in his first season as head coach last year. It is time for payback at UAB this year. Now I don't necessarily expect Rice to win this game outright but I do expect there is a chance of that as I see this game being decided by the margin of a single score as it will be tight all the way. 3 of the Owls 5 losses this season have been decided by 8 or less points. That means we've got great value here with the Owls available as a double digit dog. By the way, Rice has battled hard with Army, Baylor, and Louisiana Tech this season. Even their game against Wake Forest was much more competitive than the final score indicated. The only game in which the Owls truly got blown out was against Texas and the Blazers most certainly are not the Longhorns! 10* RICE |
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10-05-19 | Iowa v. Michigan -3.5 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #356 Saturday 8* Michigan Wolverines (-) vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ Noon ET - The Hawkeyes are currently ranked higher than the Wolverines and yet the odds makers opened this game up closer to a 6 than a 3. However, many are anxious to back Iowa here because everyone remembers how Michigan got bullied at Wisconsin a few weeks ago. First off, the Wolverines were done in by turnovers in that game. Secondly, the game was at Madison. Thirdly, Iowa is not Wisconsin! In fact, one could easily question whether or not the Hawkeyes deserve the current lofty rating they have. Iowa has played a rather soft schedule and, in the only tough game, the Hawkeyes were very fortunate to defeat rival Iowa State. The Cyclones outgained Iowa by a significant margin in that game. Remember a few weeks ago there was an early line on this game and it was in the range of 2 TDs. The odds makers then opened this up closer to 1 TD this week because they knew how the markets would react after recent game results. Sure enough the market pushed it even closer down to a FG. That means we're only laying close to a FG that, only a few weeks ago, was considered 2 TDs better when hosting this opponent. I'll grab this every single time as Michigan has also heard plenty about being manhandled by the Badgers and they look to atone for that performance here. The Hawkeyes are leaving the state of Iowa for the first time this season and they aren't known for traveling overly well. As a road dog, the Hawkeyes are 3-6 ATS the past 3 seasons. The Wolverines are 14-1 SU the last 15 times they have been a home favorite and I have no hesitation in laying the small number in this one. 8* MICHIGAN |
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10-04-19 | Central Florida v. Cincinnati +4 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #308 Friday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bearcats (+) vs Central Florida Knights @ 8 ET - Last year both these teams were ranked and they matched up in a big game with ESPN Gameday cameras rolling late in the season and the Bearcats proceeded to get embarrassed in an ugly loss. Statistically the game was not so bad for Cincinnati but, on the scoreboard, they did lose by 25 points for a very ugly loss and now it is payback time. What most people are remembering about the Bearcats right now is how they got manhandled by Ohio State earlier this season. However, the Buckeyes have been demolishing anyone and everyone that has had the misfortune of having them on their schedule this season. The point is that UC's very ugly loss to Ohio State is actually helping to give us some value in this spot because this is still a Bearcats team that has gone 3-0 in its other games and allowed an average of only 13.7 points per game to teams not named the Buckeyes! As for UCF, they are 4-1 on the season but did lose their only true "test" of the season thus far and that was a road game at Pittsburgh. In my mind losing to the Panthers as a double digit favorite is even worse than the Bearcats getting blasted by one of the best teams in the nation. The Knights do have a bye on deck while the Cats do have Houston on deck. However, UC is actually a perfect 6-0 ATS the game before the Cougars the last 6 times. Payback time here. 10* CINCINNATI |
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10-03-19 | Rams +1.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #301 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (+) @ Seattle Seahawks @ 8:20 ET - The Rams opened up as the favorites here. Unsurprisingly everyone jumped all over the Seahawks since they are also 3-1 like Los Angeles is and plus they have home field here and Seattle is a tough place to play. As per usual, I am fading the line move and I particularly love this play. The Seahawks are 3-1 but their lone loss came against the only tough team (Saints) that they faced. Seattle's 3 wins came against teams that, through 4 weeks of action, have totaled ONE win between the 3 of them. The fact is the only win among those teams came because they played each other (Cin @ Pit MNF). As for the Rams schedule, they have played 4 teams of which only 1 of the 4 has a losing record. Also, I love the fact that Los Angeles is off an embarrassing home loss to Tampa Bay. The Rams will be ready to respond here and, by the way, as tough as it is to play at Seattle, LA has won each of its past two visits here. Look for the Rams to improve to 8-3 ATS in their last 11 divisional games as they get a convincing road win here. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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10-03-19 | Temple v. East Carolina +12.5 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #306 Thursday 10* Top Play East Carolina Pirates (+) vs Temple Owls @ 8 ET - I am aware of plenty of technical data that supports the road favorite Owls in this one. However, from situational standpoint, the Pirates are the play here. I know East Carolina has been a bad team for a number of consecutive seasons now but there have signs of life in East Carolina again thanks to a new head coach and wins in 3 of their last 4 games. I know the Pirates have not played a tough schedule but playing at NC State was certainly tougher than any game Temple has played this season. So, the point is, the Owls haven't exactly played a tough schedule either. Their only road game also saw them installed as a double digit favorite and Temple lost the game outright by double digits. Also, the Owls have a big game coming up hosting Memphis. It would be easy for Temple to look right past the Pirates and be looking ahead to the Tigers. Conversely, there is no doubt that East Carolina is fully focused on this game. It is a home game on a weeknight with the ESPN cameras rolling and the Pirates seek revenge for an embarrassing loss at Temple last season. I do expect the Owls to find a way to win this game but I expect the margin to be just a single score. That said, I am grabbing the big value with the double digit home dog in this one that is showing improvement this season. With each win, their confidence is growing right along with their belief in the system the new coach has put into place. They ride the momentum again here. 10* EAST CAROLINA |
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09-29-19 | Cowboys v. Saints +3 | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #276 Sunday 8* New Orleans Saints (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - The 3 teams the Cowboys have beaten this season are a combined 1-8 and easily could be 0-9 as the Giants got their first win only because the Bucs missed a rather short game-winning field goal last week. The fact is that Dallas has had a fortunate early season schedule and this is not only the first playoff team from last season that the Cowboys are facing, it is also the first team with a winning record from last year that they are facing AND it is a road game. Even without Brees at QB, the Saints are a solid team and they are going to give the Cowboys their first true test of the season. New Orleans has played a much tougher schedule than the Cowboys as they have faced teams that went a combined 34-14 in the regular season last year. In fact, all 3 teams the Saints faced were playoff teams from last year and New Orleans was on the road for 2 of the 3 games. In other words, they are much more battle tested than the Cowboys early this season and that is why sometimes you have to throw early season stats out the window. "On paper" the Cowboys look like the better team right now but, again, they don't play the games "on paper" and the early season schedule certainly should be factored in. Also, note that New Orleans is on a 6-1 ATS run as a home dog. Also, this is a revenge game as the Saints had won 10 in a row last season before facing Dallas and being handed a tough 13-3 loss. New Orleans hasn't forgotten about this. The Saints are 8-0 ATS when off an outright upset as an underdog and, though heavily out-statted, they got the outright win at Seattle last week. Also, NO is 16-2 ATS when facing an NFC foe that has a winning percentage of .667 or greater. The Cowboys are 0-10 as favorites of 3.5 points or less when facing an NFC foe. Also, Dallas is off an easy win versus the hapless Dolphins and the Cowboys are 2-10 ATS when favored in NFC action and coming off a SU win in non-conference action. A lot of nice systems here plus revenge and home field all in favor of the Saints here. 8* NEW ORLEANS |
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09-29-19 | Jaguars +3 v. Broncos | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #273 Sunday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (+) @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET - The Broncos certainly didn't look good last week at Green Bay as they were forced into 3 turnovers and allowed 6 sacks. Keep in mind that is the same Packers defense that the Eagles looked pretty strong against in terms of pass protection and that also opened up holes the size a Mack Truck could run through for the Philadelphia running game to get going. The point is that the Broncos care likely to be in trouble again here with their suspect offensive line. Their now taking on a Jaguars defense that tallied 9 sacks in their Thursday night win over the Titans. Jacksonville has been solid in pass protection and in terms of their sack percentage their defense ranks #1 in the league. Now they take on a Broncos team that is near the bottom of the league when it comes to pass protection and when it comes to generating pressure on the opposing QB. With young QB Minshew continuing to look quite solid as he replaces the injured Foles, I like the fact the Jags also have had extra time to prepare for this game. They enjoyed the luxury of playing at home Thursday while the Broncos were at Lambeau Field on Sunday. Additionally, note that the 3 teams the Jags have faced this season, 2 were playoff teams and the other one almost was last season - the combined record of those teams was 32-16 for a .667 winning percentage. The 3 teams the Broncos have faced had a combined record of 22-25-1 last season. Another reason to like the Jaguars here. Don't be fooled by the short line here on the Broncos at home. You know this is an invitation to take Denver at home as this one has "trap line" written all over it. The Jags, under head coach Doug Marrone, are a perfect 4-0 ATS when off a home game and facing an opponent off a SU loss by a double digit margin. Denver lost by 11 at Green bay and the Jaguars destroyed Tennessee at home on Thursday so that system fits perfectly here. Ride the momentum with the road team here as the home team Broncos get dominated in the trenches once again! 10* JACKSONVILLE |
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09-28-19 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State -4 | Top | 13-26 | Win | 100 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #166 Saturday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Kansas State Wildcats @ 7 ET - The Wildcats are ranked and the Cowboys are unranked and yet Oklahoma State opened up as a sizable favorite here. Must be a mistake, right? Long-time followers know how I feel about odds maker "mistakes" and I love fading this false perception when it arises. In this case, I will fade Kansas State. I am well aware of the fact that the Wildcats have a great long-term reputation in the underdog role but I don't see them as being able to score enough here to keep with the Cowboys in Stillwater. Note that Oklahoma State ranks in the top twenty in the nation for pace on offense as well as offensive efficiency. Especially with them being at home for this one I just don't see Kansas State keeping up on the scoreboard. The home team has gotten the SU win in 13 of the last 16 match-ups between these teams and, with this line at a -4, any OSU win is likely to be an ATS win as well! The Cowboys certainly want to make the most of this one as it is their only home game in a span of 5 weeks and, trust me, they are well aware of the fact. Also, Oklahoma State can't wait to get back on the field and erase the taste of a bitter defeat at the hands of the Longhorns in Texas last week. The Cowboys are catching Kansas State off an upset win in their most recent game (but Kansas State was not impressive statistically at Mississippi State). The Wildcats then had a bye week after beating the Bulldogs but now they run into a buzzsaw with the Cowboys angry off a loss plus playing this game with double revenge! Yes, the Cats actually won in 2017 at Stillwater too. Payback time here. The Wildcats are 1-3 ATS when off an upset win as an underdog. The Cowboys are 9-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and also 4-0 ATS when off a road loss. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE |
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09-28-19 | Virginia +11.5 v. Notre Dame | 20-35 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 54 m | Show | |
National TV Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #173 Saturday 8* Virginia Cavaliers (+) @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 3:30 ET - Many are looking for Notre Dame to bounce back after the loss at Georgia last week. However, that was a physical battle against one of the best teams in the country. It is not easy to turn around and face a quality opponent immediately after a game like that. Virginia is a ranked opponent and certainly a very dangerous double digit dog in a spot like this. Yes I know the Cavaliers are off a very sub-par performance against Old Dominion last week as they even trailed 17-0 at one point but clearly Virginia overlooked the Monarchs as they were looking ahead to this big game. What I particularly like about the Cavs here is they have piled up 18 sacks this season and are allowing just 75 rushing yards per game and they have a secondary led by star Bryce Hall. The Cavaliers will bring their "A game" in this one and that means the Fighting Irish are in for a dogfight in this match-up! Cavs head coach Mendenhall has never beaten Notre Dame (0-3 SU) in his career and he is a solid coach that will have a good game plan here to change that. Even if they fall short of the upset I expect this game to be decided by just a single score. Look for the Cavaliers to be in it all the way. Though the Irish rolled at home earlier in their only game as a host this season that came against a bad New Mexico team. Also, even with that win and cover over the Lobos, Notre Dame is just 2-5 ATS the last 7 times they've been a home favorite of 7.5 points or more. The Cavaliers are 9-3 ATS their last dozen games against teams with a winning record. 8* VIRGINIA |
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09-28-19 | Wake Forest v. Boston College +6.5 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 20 h 9 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #116 Saturday 8* Boston College Eagles (+) vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ 3:30 ET - What sticks out in the minds of many is that Boston College lost to Kansas this month. But the Eagles did bounce back from that defeat with a win over Rutgers and, as for the loss to the Jayhawks, the fact is Kansas is a little better this season with Les Miles now at the helm. Boston College enters this home game 3-1 on the young season and one of the victories was over Virginia Tech. That said, they are getting very little respect here from the markets considering they are at home and Chestnut Hill can be a tough team on visitors. I know Wake Forest has had some success here but the Demon Deacons enter this game over-rated because of their 4-0 SU start to the season. This is the 3rd time under head coach Clawson that WF has reached a 4-0 record but the 5th game each time previously has been the one that trips them up and I look for that to be the case again here. This is the first time Wake Forest has been a road favorite in an ACC game in 8 years and keep in, the Demon Deacons are on an 0-3 ATS run as an away favorite. You have to like the ATS runs for the Eagles here as they have excelled in ACC play (15-3) and as a dog (10-2) and particularly as a home dog (6-1). Wake's defense has struggled at times early this season (against Utah State and they gave up 21 points to a Rice team that annually struggles). That was their only road game thus far and now Wake Forest takes on a Boston College team playing its first home game since the embarrassing home loss to Kansas. You know the Eagles want to make up for that in this ACC match-up and I expect them to do just that! 8* BOSTON COLLEGE |
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09-27-19 | Penn State -6.5 v. Maryland | Top | 59-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Friday ATS Blowout - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #107 Friday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (-) @ Maryland Terrapins @ 8 ET - The Terrapins are improved this season but just how much better are they really? Maryland has played Howard, Syracuse and Temple. Howard is an FCS school. Syracuse lost their star QB among many other personnel losses coming into this season and they are just 2-2 with wins over Liberty and a MAC school. As for Temple, their football program continues to lack in continuity as they constantly change coaches. Anyway, the point is that just as many are questioning the Nittany Lions because of a rather soft early season schedule the same could be said of Maryland and here is what we do know. The Terrapins entered this year having had 4 straight losing seasons. Maryland has a combined record of 18-31 the past 4 seasons. Penn State is expected to regress some this season as they lost key players but this is still a team that entered this season having gone 31-9 the past 3 seasons. Yes they struggled with a scrappy Pitt team two weeks ago but that is the same Pittsburgh team that upset a ranked Central Florida team this past weekend. The Panthers can play. Now with the added edge of a bye week to prepare for this game (Terps had a bye too...I am aware of that) the Nittany Lions are likely to play their most complete game of the season. In comparing these teams PSU is the more talented team and to get them at less than a TD on the road here is a bargain. The reason for the low line is because the Terrapins have earned some style points with the market place because of big wins early this season. But now Maryland faces a Big Ten foe in their Big Ten opener and this is a foe that has beaten them by a combined 142-20 in the 3 meetings the past 3 seasons. This game will absolutely be much more competitive but I still expect the Nittany Lions to win this game by at least two touchdowns. The Terrapins are improving but they have a ways to go! Maryland is off a loss to Temple that preceded their bye week. The Nittany Lions are 7-0 ATS when facing a team with winning percentage of .749 or less that is off a SU loss as a favorite. Keep in mind Maryland was favored by a touchdown in that Temple game and they lost outright. That Terrapins defeat was against the same Owls team that then preceded to get blasted by Buffalo in their next game. Of course that is the same Buffalo team that Penn State, after a lackluster first half, ended up blowing out 45 to 13 early this season. See where I am going with all these comparisons? Road rout time! 10* PENN STATE |
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09-26-19 | Eagles +4.5 v. Packers | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
Thursday Night Best of the Best - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #101 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - This one is all about the line value of the situation. Give the Packers credit for their 3-0 start to the season but they also are +6 in turnovers on the season. Green Bay came into the season with a projected win total for this year that was less than the Eagles but now Philadelphia is a tough 1-2 to start to the season and being written off by many. How quickly things change in terms of betting market perception. Now, even though the Eagles are getting healthier with some guys back on both sides of the ball this week, they are still catching about 4.5 point in this one. Again, even factoring in home field this match-up is one that would have been around a pick'em before the start to the season that these two teams have had. So again it comes back to value and Philadelphia being very hungry off back to back losses and getting WR Alshon Jeffery back for this game. Though still without DeSean Jackson for this game, Jeffery makes a difference and Nelson Algoholor is still in there at WR along with Zach Ertz at tight end and the two tight end sets are an option again with Dallas Goedert now healthier too. In terms of points allowed (a stat that often gets skewed) the Packers defense looks much better than the Eagles early this season but in terms of actual yardage these teams are nearly equal on defense. As for the offense, even though the Eagles have dealt with injuries they have been much more impressive than the Packers statistically on that side of the ball. Again, not taking anything away from Green Bay and their 3-0 start but it is leading to great underdog value here. The Packers haven't won more than 3 games in a row (and the Eagles haven't lost more than 2 games in a row) since the 2016 season! Philadelphia is on a 4-0 ATS run in Thursday games. Also, the Eagles are a perfect 5-0 ATS when they are off B2B SU and losses and facing a team that is off a SU win by a double digit margin. That system fits perfectly here and Carson Wentz and Company, backed into a corner, get back into the win column in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA |