Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-22-22 | Reds v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -115 vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:05 ET - Action on pitchers as essentially this is a bullpen game for the Reds even though they are not calling it that. Cincinnati expects to get a lot out of Luis Cessa here but he got hammered in his only start this season and has not pitched that great out of the bullpen this season either. Also, prior to his lone start this season, he had not started a game since 2018. Now he faces an angry Phillies team as they just struggled against the Mets including losing the series finale despite scoring 9 runs in that game. Philadelphia the better team and at home and in a good situation given the loss yesterday. Look for payback here as they take on a lesser team. There is a concern about the weather in Philly this evening but as the night goes on they should get this game in and this is another reason I don't even care if Syndergaard starts or not either. Tonight is about the situational and overall team factors and lineup strengths rather than the pitching. Will mention that Syndergaard has been better in his last couple starts and is starting to show glimpses of being quite strong again as he is rounding into form as a Phillie now. The Reds are off B2B wins but had lost 8 of 10 prior to that and winning streaks of 3 or more games have been very rare for Cincy this season. Also, the B2B wins came against a struggling Pirates team. The Phillies had won 16 of 23 - including 2 of 3 versus Reds - before yesterday's loss. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -115 |
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08-22-22 | White Sox v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox @ 2:10 ET - Action on pitchers. I like the over here regardless of starting pitchers but will mention the expected starters are Kopech and Lynch. Note that Kopech has a high ERA and much higher BAA in road games compared to at home. Also, he started this season fantastic the first two months but has since gone 3-8 with an ERA in the 4.50 range. As for Lynch, he has a 5.22 ERA in home games and is winless in his 6 day game starts this season. The White Sox, though they have not been scoring great do have some added confidence from winning 6 of last 9 prior to yesterday's rainout. They should be able to hit Lynch as though he has pitched well against them this season he got rocked by them last season. As for Royals hitters, they do tend to hit better at home. The last 11 home games for KC have averaged 10 runs per game. I look for another one to reach double digits here. 10* OVER 8.5 in Kansas City |
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08-21-22 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 11 in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 3:10 ET - Action on pitchers. The Rockies left 8 men on base in yesterday's low-scoring win. The Giants went 1 for 6 with runners in scoring position in the loss. I expect both lineups to be much better in this afternoon game at Coors Field Sunday. Colorado normally hits so well at home and San Francisco had averaged 6 runs per game in first 4 games here at Coors Field this season before yesterday's disappointing effort here. Bounce back time for both lineups here regardless of the pitchers. But I will mention them here as these are the expected starters. Jakob Junis has ERA north of 5.50 in his day starts this season. Up until this season he was in the AL with the Royals and I do believe this is his first ever start at Coors Field and, generally speaking, this is NOT a friendly place for road pitchers on their first visits here. As for Rockies Kyle Freeland, he is getting hit at a .313 clip in home start this season and has a 6.00 ERA at Coors Field. This one, regardless of starters, will get crazy and fly over the total on a warm afternoon in Denver. 10* OVER 11 in Colorado |
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08-21-22 | Mets v. Phillies -115 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -115 vs New York Mets @ 1:35 ET - Action on pitchers. Phillies at home and have won 16 of 23 games. Mets have lost 5 of last 9 road games. No matter the pitchers I like Phillies to build momentum off earning the split of yesterday's double-header. Butto is unproven rookie for Mets with unimpressive minor league stats. Gibson is 6-3 at home this season and has a 2.70 ERA so far this month. 10* PHILADELPHIA -115 |
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08-20-22 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 11 in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 8:10 ET - This match-up just missed going over the total yesterday as it stalled at 11 runs. Look for today's to make up for that. Action on pitchers. Regardless of pitchers, and hopefully we keep the rain away in this one, it should be a blowout winner on the over. Will mention the pitchers here briefly. Cobb has been great at home this season but has a 5.94 ERA in his 7 road starts and Coors Field the toughest venue in the league to pitch in. This is the 2nd straight year that his ERA is 3 full runs higher on the road than at home. As for Feltner, he is 2-5 with a 6.95 ERA and opponents hitting nearly .300 against him in his young MLB career. Look for him to get pounded here. The Giants allowing an average of 6 runs per game last 13 road games. The Rockies last 7 home games have averaged a dozen runs per game. This one gets to at least 12 as well. 10* OVER 11 in Colorado |
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08-20-22 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 4:05 ET - Action on pitchers but we'll start there with the expected starters. The Red Sox are expected to start Michael Wacha here. I know he is off a great start but it was his first start back after a long layoff and sometimes when guys have an outing like that in first start back they suddenly struggle badly in the second one. They had a lot in the reserve in the first tart back but then have a little less in the reserve for the second start as they are still trying to get back in to their routine on the season. Baltimore expected to start Kyle Bradish here. The right-hander is winless with a 6.52 ERA and a .325 BAA in his 8 home outings. Yesterday's huge 15-10 Baltimore win followed an Orioles make-up game against the Cubs was squeezed into the schedule and was a tough scheduling spot for the Orioles and they did lose 3-2 at home. However, prior to that the O's won 8 of last 11 home games and each of last 4 games as a host had totaled at least 9 runs and I feel certain this one will too. The Red Sox last 8 road games have averaged 12.8 runs per game and only 1 of the 8 have totaled less than 9 runs and even that one got to 8. Day after day Boston seems to be involved in rather high-scoring games when on the road in recent weeks and I look for that trend to continue here. 10* OVER 8.5 in Baltimore |
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08-19-22 | Marlins v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 -115 vs Miami Marlins @ 10:10 ET - Action on pitchers as I simply love a powerful Dodgers team to blast a Marlins team that so often struggles to score runs. I will mention the pitchers though here first. Tyler Anderson having a huge season including 7-0 with a 2.30 ERA in home outings this season. Jesus Luzardo can be dominant at times but he has struggled at times when facing tough lineups this season and the Dodgers certainly fit the bill in that regard. Also, this is still a guy that went 6-9 with a 6.61 ERA last season. He has been much better this season but still allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings against the Braves in his most recent start. Luzardo also recently allowed 4 earned runs in less than 3 innings at Arizona and now faces an even tougher road challenge here. The Dodgers are off a loss and are 11-2 the last 13 times when off a loss. Also, LA almost always wins their games by a multi-run margin. 89% of Dodgers wins this season have been by 2+ runs. Los Angeles has scored an average of 7 runs per victory in their 21 wins since the All Star break. The Marlins have lost 14 of 19 games and scored an average of only 2 runs per game last 18 games. You read that right...TWO runs average last 18 games. They are not hitting. Dodgers can and will! 10* LOS ANGELES DODGERS RUN LINE -1.5 -115 |
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08-19-22 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - Action on pitchers but we'll start there with the expected starters. The Red Sox are expected to start Kutter Crawford here. He has a 4.73 ERA in his MLB career. He gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent road start. Crawford also struggled in his only appearance against Orioles this season and that was out of the pen earlier this season. Baltimore expected to start Jordan Lyles here. The right-hander has given up 13 hits in 10 innings in his last two starts. He has struggled in 2 of his last 3 home outings. Yesterday's make-up game against the Cubs was squeezed into the schedule and was a tough scheduling spot for the Orioles and they did lose 3-2 at home. However, prior to that the O's won 8 of last 11 home games and each of last 4 games as a host had totaled at least 9 runs and I feel certain this one will too. The Red Sox last 7 road games have averaged 11 runs per game and only 1 of the 7 have totaled less than 9 runs and even that one got to 8. Night after night Boston seems to be involved in rather high-scoring games when on the road in recent weeks and I look for that trend to continue here. 10* OVER 8.5 in Baltimore |
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08-18-22 | Nationals v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. The expectation here, as you can obviously tell from the side pricing in this game, is a Padres blowout. In fact, even the -1.5 on the run line pricing is too high for the risk in my mind. That said, -2.5 runs is currently available at -120. The point is that a SDG win by 3 or more runs would not be a shock to say the least. That said, I love the over in this match-up. Darvish is the expected starter for the Padres and he is not exactly setting the world on fire with his performances this month. He also just faced the Nationals last week when he was matched up with today's expected Nats pitcher, Sanchez. That said, love the over in this match-up because Sanchez is having another rough season and is 0-5 with a 7.20 ERA in his six starts this year. This game sets up for plenty of runs no matter who the pitchers are because Washington has allowed more runs than any team - even the Rockies! - in the majors this season. The Nationals have allowed 7.2 runs per game in their 17 defeats since the All Star break. The Padres last 10 games have totaled an average of 10.3 runs per game. Again, no matter the pitchers here, the bullpens should help our cause here as well and we can take advantage of a low total posted on this one. The low total makes sense because of Darvish being a big name pitcher but, again, you can see why this game has a great shot at setting plenty of runs per the above. 10* OVER 7.5 in San Diego |
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08-18-22 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 8 | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - The Yankees and Blue Jays both have two solid lineups. This is a very low total considering that fact and I like the over regardless of the starting pitchers. My play here is action on the pitchers. But I will mention that Berrios is notorious for struggling on the road and a number of Yankees batters have given him trouble. As for the Yankees Montas, he has struggled a bit in his first two starts in a Yankees uniform and now he has the added pressure of making this start in the Bronx. He is a veteran so is not that big of a deal for Montas but still is some added pressure. Also, the Blue Jays have a number of hitters that have given him trouble. This match-up has the perfect ingredients to be a solid over winner. Toronto's last 6 road games have featured 5 that reached double digits in runs scored. Yankees have been in a pattern of low-scoring games but yesterday's dramatic 8-7 win in extra innings courtesy of a walk-off grand slam from Donaldson is going to get the New York bats going. 7 of last 9 Yankees home games have totaled at least 9 runs. 10* OVER 8 in New York Yankees |
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08-18-22 | Rockies v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 0-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Run Line -1.5 -105 vs Colorado Rockies @ 1:15 ET - Action on pitchers as the fact is Rockies just so bad on road again this season and Cardinals so strong at home again this season. These are long-term trends too as year after year Colorado tends to struggle on the road while St Louis tends to be so tough at home. More of the same expected here but now I will touch on the starting pitchers but like this game regardless of starters. Wainwright is known for being so strong at home throughout his career and that has been the case again this season. This includes allowing 1 earned run or less in 5 of last 6 home starts. In fact, Wainwright has allowed a total of only 3 earned runs in the 37.1 innings spanning those 5 starts. Senzatela has had a very rough season for the Rockies and is 0-4 with a 5.50 ERA in his 7 road starts this season and he has a 5.28 ERA and has been hit a ridiculous .396 clip in his 6 day game starts this year. The home team rolls to big margin win here. 10* ST LOUIS -1.5 -105 |
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08-17-22 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play San Francisco Giants Run Line -1.5 +105 vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:45 ET - You know Carlos Rodon wants this one and I expect him to pitch "lights out" in this one. He is 0-2 versus Arizona this season despite allowing only 8 hits in 11 innings while striking out 17 in his two starts against the Diamondbacks. Against the rest of the teams he is 11-4 with a 2.55 ERA this season! As for Arizona's Zach Davies, he has a 5.00 ERA in road games this season. Also, Davies ERA in night games is about a full run higher compared to day games. Regardless of starting pitchers, this one is a play for me. Take action on the pitchers. The Giants have won 8 of 10 games. The Dbacks have lost 23 of last 32 road games. Also, of the 11 wins that San Francisco has in Rodon's starts this season 10 of them (91%) have been by 2 or more runs. I am very comfortable with the run line here as, overall, 73% of Giants wins this season by 2 or more runs and we even get plus money here by laying the run line with the home team. 10* SAN FRANCISCO -1.5 +105 |
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08-17-22 | Royals v. Twins OVER 8 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals @ 1:10 ET - Action on pitchers but will start there about this one. Daniel Lynch is a southpaw and he has struggled against right-handed hitters throughout his career. That said, he will be facing a righty-heavy lineup in facing the Twins this afternoon and I expect them to crush him. Lynch has a 6.00 ERA in his last two starts against Minnesota this season. As for the Twins Tyler Mahle, he gave up 3 homers in his first home start with Minny earlier this month. Then his next start he did pitch very well but it was against an Angels lineup that has recently been one of the worst in baseball. I do not trust that Mahle is back in top form just yet for sure as he struggles again here like he did in his first start this month. That said this seems like a very low total and I will take advantage. Note that KC had won 7 of 11 before B2B losses in this series. In those 11 games the Royals averaged 5.3 runs per game. As for the Twins, 26 of their last 33 games have totaled at least 8 runs and they are 7-2 last 9 games versus Royals and have scored an average of 6.3 runs per game in last 9 games versus Kansas City. 10* OVER 8 in Minnesota |
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08-16-22 | Royals v. Twins OVER 8 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:40 ET - Action on pitchers but will start there about this one. Greinke has made 9 road starts this season and he is 0-5 with a 7.16 ERA. Throughout his career he has shown a strong tendency to pitch well at home and then struggle on the road. That has continued this season. As for the Twins Gray, he had a 5.92 ERA in his 5 July starts. Though he has a low ERA in his first two starts this month, he has a 1.55 WHIP so he doesn't seem to be back in top form just yet for sure. That said this seems like a very low total and I will take advantage. Note that KC had won 7 of 11 before yesterday's 4-2 loss. In those 11 games the Royals averaged 5.3 runs per game. As for the Twins, 25 of their last 32 games have totaled at least 8 runs and they are 6-2 last 8 games versus Royals and have scored an average of 6 runs per game in last 8 games versus Kansas City. 10* OVER 8 in Minnesota |
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08-16-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:07 ET - Action on pitchers. Manoah just faced the Orioles and got hit hard in Baltimore and the damage could have been even worse. He might not be so fortunate in the rematch as Baltimore has been scoring very well and could cash even more opportunities this time around. As for the Orioles starter, Kremer has been absolutely crushed by Toronto hitters in his young career and I look for more of the same here in his first start versus the Blue Jays this season. Also these lineups just faced the relief pitchers they will be seeing throughout this series as well. In other words, this one sets up well to be a slugfest. Kremer has allowed 6 homers 10.1 innings in his last 3 starts versus the Blue Jays. I do like this play regardless of who the starters are because Baltimore entered the series off B2B low-scoring losses but already responded with 7 runs yesterday. Plus they had won 8 of 10 before those B2B losses and scored an average of 5.5 runs per game during that stretch. Also, Toronto has averaged 5.4 runs per game in their 7 games against Orioles this season. In fact, all 7 games went over the total and totaled at least 10 runs. More of the same here and I am going to test this match-up spot that is 7-0 / 100% this season! 10* OVER 8.5 in Toronto |
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08-16-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Reds | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -115 @ Cincinnati Reds @ 6:40 ET - I lost with this play yesterday despite Phillies winning as they won by only 1 run. However, I will come right back with the run line here as a lot of signs point to another Philadelphia win here but this time by blowout margin. Action on pitchers as I simply love this situational spot for the Phillies. But will touch on the pitchers here first. Gibson has been fantastic recently for the Phillies in his last 3 starts overall. Also, if you look at his last two road starts, he was practically unhittable. Gibson is fully capable of dominating the Reds on the road in this one. As for Zeuch, the Reds big righty is 2-5 and has a 5.26 ERA in his MLB career. I look for the Phillies to pound him. Philadelphia got back on track with a win yesterday. The Phils were off B2B losses after a red hot 13-2 run and Phillies have averaged 6 runs per game in their 15 victories since the All-Star break. The Reds off another loss yesterday and have now lost 8 of 11 games. Also, Cincinnati - not including extra innings - has scored more than 3 runs just TWICE in their last 14 games! The Reds offense will not keep up with the Phillies here and the visitors pull away for the win by a multi-run margin. Prior to yesterday's one run defeat, each of Cincinnati's last 8 losses had come by 2 or more runs. Phillies roll to huge road win here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -115 |
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08-15-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:07 ET - Action on pitchers. Kikuchi has allowed 9 earned runs in 9 innings in his two starts versus the Orioles this season. Bradish has allowed 8 earned runs in 9.2 innings in his two starts versus the Blue Jays this season. Also, these lineups just faced these pitchers. In other words, this one sets up well to be a slugfest even though both teams off losses in which they did not score well yesterday. Kikuchi has allowed 5 homers in his 2 starts versus the Orioles. I do like this play regardless of who the starters are because Baltimore is off B2B low-scoring losses but had won 8 of 10 before that and scored an average of 5.5 runs per game during that stretch. Also, Toronto has averaged nearly 6 runs per game in their half-dozen games against Orioles this season. In fact, all 6 games went over the total and totaled at least 11 runs. More of the same here and I am going to test this match-up spot that is 6-0 / 100% this season! 10* OVER 9 in Toronto |
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08-15-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Reds | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -110 @ Cincinnati Reds @ 6:40 ET - Action on pitchers as I simply love this situational spot for the Phillies. But will touch on the pitchers here first. Syndergaard was much better in his most recent start with his new team and he is fully capable of dominating the Reds on the road in this one. As for Minor, the Reds lefty is 1-9 and has a 6.24 ERA on the season. I look for the Phillies to pound him. Philadelphia off B2B losses after a red hot 13-2 run and Phillies have averaged 6 runs per game in their 14 victories since the All-Star break. The Reds off a win but this after losing 7 of 9 games. Also, prior to that win, Cincinnati - not including extra innings - had scored more than 3 runs just ONCE in their last DOZEN games! The Reds offense will not keep up with the Phillies here and the visitors pull away for the win by a multi-run margin. Each of Cincinnati's last 8 losses by 2 or more runs. Phillies roll to huge road win here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 |
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08-14-22 | Twins v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins @ 4:07 ET - Action on pitchers. I will mention the pitchers here but this is more about the teams and lineups and current trending rather the starting pitchers. I know I keep going back to the well here but I really feel good about this one getting over the total to wrap up this series. So first off lets talk about the fact the Twins are on a crazy run in road games in which 17 of their last 19 road games have totaled at least 8 runs. By the way, only 2 landed on 8 runs but I know we need 9 here and most all landed on at least 9 runs during this 19-game stretch. Now you know why I am not too worried about who the pitchers are. Yes, I know the Angels have a tendency to not score very well but they are at home here and have averaged 4 runs per game last 14 games. I am fully expecting at least a 6-5 final in this one as I expect both teams to fare well at the plate with the most likely result being double digits in runs scored. The Twins Chris Archer is 0-4 with a 5.40 ERA in day games this season. As for the Angels Tucker Davidson, he is 1-3 with a 7.91 ERA this season and I feel strongly that the Twins are going to respond after letting yesterday's game get away from them plus a lot of hard hit balls in Friday's game and that one certainly should have seen more scoring than the 4-0 final. This one should fly over the total. 10* OVER 9 in LA Angels |
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08-14-22 | Padres v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
MLB 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres @ 12:05 ET - Padres lost 4-3 yesterday as they blew a 3-0 lead and there were 18 hits in that game. Before that loss yesterday, San Diego had been rolling and scoring big runs and I expect them to resume the hot streak today. They should pound Espino as he had a 5.82 ERA last month and 6.00 ERA this month and he has been struggling badly. He is winless on the season. The Padres Snell has good numbers on the season but he is known for not pitching as well in day games. This is an ultra early start and I expect him to struggle here particularly with Nats having totaled 10 hits in yesterday's game. He has 6.91 ERA in day games this season and had a 6.75 ERA in day games last season. The struggles continue here and this one should fly over the total as both pitchers get hammered. San Diego had scored 10 runs per game and won 3 straight before yesterday's tight loss. 10* OVER 9 in Washington |
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08-13-22 | Twins v. Angels OVER 8 | Top | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins @ 9:07 ET - Action on pitchers. I will mention the pitchers here but this is more about the teams and lineups and current trending rather the starting pitchers. This is something that has worked for me many times in the past. I lose a big pick the day before and come right back with same thing the next day. The other thing that has worked well for me is "this doesn't look quite right for a reason" situation. The fact is that is usually when the sharpest people out there know something. This also works well and is the case here because Reed Detmers has been really strong for Angels but has a struggling lineup to rely on for his own run support yet this total is holding at an 8. So first off lets talk about the fact the Twins are on a crazy run in road games in which 16 of their last 18 road games have totaled at least 8 runs. By the way, only 1 landed on 8 runs (the current total of this game). So the fact is if you had played over 8 in each of Minnesota's last 18 road games you had a 15-2-1 record! Now you know why I am not too worried about who the pitchers are. Yes, I know the Angels have a tendency to not score very well but they are at home here and, prior to yesterday's game, had averaged 4 runs per game last dozen games. I am fully expecting at least a 5-4 final in this one as I expect both teams to fare well at the plate with the most likely result being double digits in runs scored. The Twins Dylan Bundy has a 6.33 ERA and a .301 BAA in road games this season. I know the Angels Detmers has great numbers this season and is off a start in which he did not allow many hits but there is something funny about this line and the fact it is holding at an 8 again. I definitely love the fact that there were a lot of hard hit balls yesterday and it certainly should have seen more scoring than the 4-0 final. This one should fly over the total. Note LA has averaged scoring 6 runs per game the last 8 times they were off a game in which they were held to 2 or less runs. 10* OVER 8 in LA Angels |
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08-13-22 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 7 | Top | 5-2 | Push | 0 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 7 in Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves @ 1:10 ET (Gm 1 of DH) - Yesterday's game featured a ton of scoring chances but the Marlins lost 4-3 because despite the two teams totaling 20 hits between them, Miami went 1 for 14 with runners in scoring position and left 13 men on base for the game! That is why I like the over here regardless of pitching match-up. I know what this Braves lineup is capable of and I also feel certain the Marlins will bounce back after wasting so many chances yesterday. Now, about those pitchers, Jesus Luzardo is off a great start and has been solid in his two starts since coming back. However, his only home start this season versus a playoff-level team like the Braves saw him get roughed up by the Cardinals. Also, he did struggle against Atlanta in a start last season. As for Braves starter Kyle Muller, he'll be looking to redeem himself for a bad start in his only MLB appearance this season but keep in mind he also struggled in finishing out last season at the big league level and it could be playing on his confidence level to say the least. With the way the Marlins piled up hits yesterday that could spell trouble today. 10* OVER 7 in Miami (Gm 1 of DH) |
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08-12-22 | Twins v. Angels OVER 8 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins @ 9:38 ET - Action on pitchers. I will mention the pitchers here but this is more about the teams and lineups and current trending rather the starting pitchers. So first off lets talk about the fact the Twins are on a crazy run in road games in which 16 of their last 17 road games have totaled at least 8 runs. By the way, only 1 landed on 8 runs (the current total of this game). So the fact is if you had played over 8 in each of Minnesota's last 17 road games you had a 15-1-1 record! Now you know why I am not too worried about who the pitchers are. Yes, I know the Angels have a tendency to not score very well but they are at home here and have averaged 4 runs per game last dozen games. I am fully expecting at least a 5-4 final in this one as I expect both teams to fare well at the plate with the most likely result being double digits in runs scored. The Twins start recently acquired Mahle and he allowed 3 homers in his first start with Minnesota. Also, he has a 4.76 ERA in night games this season and has been hit 49 points higher under the lights compared to in day action. I know the Angels Sandoval has great numbers this season and is off a start in which he did not allow many hits but he did walk 4 plus hit a pair of batters. Keep in mind, all this after an 0-5 July in which he compiled a 6.20 ERA. This one should fly over the total. 10* OVER 8 in LA Angels |
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08-11-22 | Guardians v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians @ 1:10 ET - Action on pitchers. The Tigers expected to start rookie Garrett Hill and he is 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA in day games this season. Also, Hill made his MLB debut against Guardians on July 4th and it was a strong outing for him. Now will be the first time ever at the MLB level that he is making a 2nd appearance against a team he already faced. Historically these 2nd outings trend toward being much tougher than the first! Hill is off a respectable start as well but in between these 1st and 6th starts he had a 7.20 ERA over 4 starts and none of them were quality outings. As for the Guardians Zach Plesac, he is 1-7 with a 5.31 ERA in road starts this season. Also, Plesac was 0-4 with a 5.84 ERA last month and then he began August by losing again and getting hammered for 4 earned runs in about 4 innings of work. Also, the Tigers are facing him for the 3rd time this season and hit him harder in the 2nd one than the 1st one and I look for even more damage to be done in the 3rd one. Regardless of starting pitchers, again my pick is action, the Tigers last 12 home games had averaged 10 runs apiece prior to the 3-2 loss to Cleveland yesterday. Love the fact that yesterday's game was 3-2 after 4 innings but then stayed that way the rest of the game. Today's game makes up for that and the Guardians are 9-6 last 15 road games and the 9 wins saw Cleveland score an average of 7 runs per game. The 6 losses saw the Guardians allow an average of 5 per game. This total is only an 8.5 and is offering great value. 10* OVER 8.5 in Detroit |
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08-10-22 | Braves v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 105 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:10 ET - The Red Sox tend to hit much better at home. I look at their lineup and, yes, is not what it was in their heyday years of the past but it still has solid lumber in it for sure. That said, I like the over here with action on pitchers. The Braves continue to be one of the best teams in baseball and hit well. Boston tends to hit better when at home and should get the job done again here as well. Yesterday's game ended up a wild 9-7 extra-innings win for the Braves. The expected starting pitchers are Wright and Pivetta so I will touch on them here but they are not the key to the play. Wright allowed 6 earned runs in most recent start and Fenway Park is not an easy place to pitch. Pivetta has had a couple games recently where he has allowed less earned runs but still giving up quite a few hits. So looking at everything tells the full story and Pivetta has allowed 28 earned runs in 29 innings in last 6 starts. Also he has given up 46 hits in those 29 innings! The Red Sox have seen 5 straight games totaled at least 9 runs and the games have averaged 13 runs! The Braves have seen 16 of last 22 games total at least 9 runs. I realize this total is as high as a 9.5 but I still see double digits being attained in this game. The Braves favored for a reason and have scored an average of 7 runs per game in their 9 wins since the All Star break. Plus the Red Sox known for being dangerous hitting team at home. This should fly over the total. 10* OVER 9.5 in Boston |
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08-10-22 | Marlins v. Phillies -120 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -120 vs Miami Marlins @ 7:05 ET - Action on pitchers. I know Alcantara is the expected starter for the Marlins here and he is having a huge season. I also know that Syndergaard is the expected starter for the Phillies here and he had some rough patches in his first start for his new team. However, I do expect Syndergaard to bounce back in better weather conditions for his 2nd start with his new club. Also, note that Alcantara will be making his 4th start against the Phillies this season. Familiarity oftentimes leads to success for the hitters. Case in point is that the Mets just faced him for a 4th time and got to him for 4 earned runs in 5 innings. In fact, that was part of a 3-start stretch, just prior to his most recent start, in which Alcantara allowed 8 earned runs over 19 innings. Perhaps he is wearing down a bit and we all know what Syndergaard is capable of on the mound and he is the fresher arm here. The biggest key, and the reason this play is action for me, is the overall team strength and lineups. Simply put, Miami just can not score runs! The Marlins are currently mired in a 2-8 stretch and have scored an average of only 1.7 runs in those 10 games! In fact, Miami has 12 losses since the All Star break and scored a TOTAL of only 16 runs in those 12 defeats! As for Philadelphia, it has been a red hot run of late. The Phillies have won 11 of 12 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game! 10* PHILADELPHIA -120 |
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08-09-22 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 9:40 ET - This is a bit of a contrarian play because neither one of these teams known for being solid hitting clubs. However, I like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers and would also not be surprised to see some 8.5 become available on this total which, of course, will give us even more value with this one. Either way, regardless of number and starting pitchers, I like the over here. Note that Pirates had averaged 5 runs per game and gone 4-2 last 6 games before being shutout yesterday. Pittsburgh scored an average of 6.5 runs in those 4 victories. As for the Diamondbacks, 5 of their last 6 games had totaled at least 9 runs before the 3-0 shutout win yesterday. Arizona has been solid at home for quite a stretch now and has won 8 of 10 home games since the All Star break plus scored an average of 5.6 runs per game last 20 games as a host overall. They can score plenty here and the Pirates are going go surprise some people with runs here. Will just touch on the starting pitchers here but Tommy Henry 8-10 with a 4.57 ERA in his minor league career and allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his first MLB start. Zach Thompson 1-6 with a 6.47 ERA in his night game starts this season and he has been absolutely destroyed overall in his last 3 starts. 10* OVER 9 in Arizona |
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08-09-22 | Cardinals v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 5-16 | Win | 100 | 17 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 11 in Colorado Rockies vs St Louis Cardinals @ 8:40 ET - Like so many other pitchers, Miles Mikolas does not have a good career history at Coors Field. That said, I like the over a ton here. Even if Mikolas does not start here and were Ryan Feltner not to start for the Rockies, I still like the over in this match-up. Take action on the pitchers. The fact is that Colorado has scored an average of 5.6 runs per game at home this season and the Cardinals come into this game red hot. St Louis has won 9 of 10 games and scored an average of 5.7 runs per game during this hot stretch. The Cards had a 1-0 win in this stretch but have averaged 6.2 runs in the other 9 games. They are hot and Feltner is 1-4 with a 6.51 ERA in the 11 games (10 starts) in his MLB career. Mikolas has an ERA about a full run higher on the road than at home this season and each of the past two seasons before this his road ERA was at least 2 runs higher on the road than at home and the year before these it was a variance over 1.5 runs. The point is that he has always been better at home than on the road for many seasons now and pitching at Coors Field is tougher than any other venue in the bigs and this is particularly true on a warm late summer evening game. Regardless of the starting pitchers here, look for a slugfest in this one. 10* OVER 11 in Colorado |
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08-08-22 | Reds v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play New York Mets Run Line -1.5 -140 vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:10 ET - Justin Dunn starts for Reds here. He makes his first MLB appearance of this season but at AAA level of the minors he went 0-3 with a 6.92 ERA in 7 starts while getting hard hard plus walking 16 in 26 innings. Chris Bassitt starts for the Mets here and he has a 3.06 ERA at home and deserves a better record than he has. He should get a W added to the win column here if he starts as he has allowed just 15 earned runs total in his last 8 starts and he has gone at least 6 innings in all those outings. Regardless of the starting pitchers here, I am making this bet with action, note that the Mets have won 12 of 14 games and are red hot with 11 of those 12 wins by at least a 2 run margin! I know the Reds have been winning lately too but they have not scored much with just 1 of those games being a strong game offensively out of last 7 and in the other 6 they averaged only 1.8 runs scored per game (not including extra innings). Cincinnati will not be able to keep up with potent Mets lineup here no matter who the pitchers are. 10* NEW YORK METS -1.5 -140 |
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08-08-22 | Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles are off an 8-1 loss but had won 5 straight games before that and scored an average of 5.6 runs per victory. The Blue Jays are 10-5 last 15 games since the All Star break and have averaged 6.1 runs per game. Regardless of starting pitchers here (action on this play) I like the fact that both teams have been hot and they each have extra confident batting lineups as a result. About the starting pitchers, I will mention that Jordan Lyles allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings against Toronto earlier this season. Also, Yusei Kikuchi allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings against Orioles this season and the damage could have been even worse in that one and that was in Toronto and he'll face an even bigger challenge at Baltimore. Kikuchi is 0-3 with a 5.74 ERA in 9 road starts this season. Lyles also gave up 4 homers in 4 innings when he faced the Blue Jays last year too. So this is a problematic match-up for each starting pitcher but, regardless of starters, I look for both teams and therefore both lineups to stay hot in this one. 10* OVER 9.5 in Baltimore |
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08-07-22 | Giants v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Oakland A's vs San Francisco Giants @ 4:07 ET - These teams each reached double digits in hits in yesterday's 7-3 Giants win. Regardless of the pitchers today, I like the over. Action on pitchers here as the A's, prior to yesterday's 7-3 loss, had won 9 of 13 games and scored an average of 4.6 runs per game during this stretch. The Giants had lost 12 of 15 games before yesterday's win as SF had allowed 5.3 runs per game during that stretch. With the San Francisco bats waking up yesterday and the Oakland sticks enjoying more success in recent weeks, these teams will hit well again today. Now I will touch on the expected pitchers here. Logan Webb has allowed 10 earned runs in 11.1 innings in his last two starts and has a higher ERA in day games in comparison with night games. Adrian Martinez has struggled at the MLB level and that comes as no surprise as he struggled at the AAA level of the minors too. Martinez is 5-8 with a 5.44 ERA at the highest level of the minors and has a 6.52 ERA in his 4 MLB starts. More of the same likely here and the hitters are the story, regardless of who the starting pitchers here here, Sunday afternoon. 10* OVER 8 in Oakland |
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08-07-22 | Blue Jays v. Twins OVER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 2:10 ET - The ability to get an 8 here is an excellent value. Regardless of pitchers, I like the fact the Blue Jays have scored an average of 6.4 runs per game since the All Star Break and the Twins have seen 9 of their 13 games since the All Star Break total double digits in runs! So, action on pitchers, but if you take a closer look at them here, you will like what you see. Chris Archer is off a good start for the Twins but his prior two were ugly and this is a guy whom is 0-4 with a 5.68 ERA in his day game starts this season. As for Kevin Gausman, he is off a fantastic outing but he got hit at a .356 clip in the month of July plus he allowed 10 earned runs in less than 16 innings over his 3 starts prior to Tuesday's gem at Tampa Bay. Should be no such gem here against a Twins team that hammered him for 9 hits in a start that lasted less than 4 innings for Gausman in early June. Take advantage of the low total here as these are two solid lineups that absolutely can explode for big runs here and I love the way both teams have been trending in terms of runs scored as well. 10* OVER 8 in Minnesota |
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08-07-22 | Nationals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 1-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -145 vs Washington Nationals @ 1:35 ET - With a huge 11-5 blowout win yesterday after a 7-2 rout win Friday over the Nationals, Philly continues to build momentum. Before too much longer, Harper is expected back in the lineup for the Phillies and they have maintained a wild card spot even with him out of the lineup. This speaks volumes to the fact this Philly team has a solid clubhouse and is building momentum. Now they get a rock solid Aaron Nola on the mound (3-1 with 2.33 ERA and .185 BAA in his 6 day starts) and they continue to take on the NL East punching bag otherwise known as the Nationals. Cory Abbott has disastrous numbers at the AAA level and very little experience at the MLB level. Last year he was 5-6 with a 5.91 ERA at the AAA level. This season on the mound for AAA clubs for the Cubs first and now Washington he has gone a combined 0-5 with a 4.98 ERA. Regardless of the pitchers here, I am going with the home team run line in this one. The Nationals are 17-42 against teams with a winning record this season and also an incredibly poor 9-41 in divisional games this season. This one sets up well to be another home blowout as Philly has been hot and the Nats have remained ice cold. It is worth laying the price as the Phillies have won 9 of 10 overall plus have dominated the Nationals this season. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -145 |
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08-06-22 | Red Sox v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - Boston has won 4 of 6 and averaged scoring about 5 runs per game in the 4 victories. Kansas City has seen 6 of their last 8 games total at least 10 runs and those 6 have actually averaged a dozen runs per game. That is why, regardless of starting pitchers here, I do like the over in this match-up. The Red Sox are expected to start Nathan Eovaldi and he began August with a good start but this was after going 3 starts without a win in July and he had an 11.08 ERA for the month. Daniel Lynch the expected starter for KC here and the Royals lefty has gone 1-3 with a 5.97 ERA in his 6 home starts this season. He had a strong April but it has been all downhill for Lynch ever since. Regardless of the starters, the bats stay hot here in this game and it should fly over the total with favorable weather for an over also expected at Kaufmann Stadium for this one. 10* OVER 9 in Kansas City |
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08-06-22 | Nationals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -125 vs Washington Nationals @ 6:05 ET - With a huge 7-2 blowout win yesterday over the Nationals, Philly continues to build momentum. Before too much longer, Harper is expected back in the lineup for the Phillies and they have maintained a wild card spot even with him out of the lineup. This speaks volumes to the fact this Philly team has a solid clubhouse and is building momentum. Now they get a red hot Ranger Suarez on the mound (0.00 ERA last 3 starts) and they continue to take on the NL East punching bag otherwise known as the Nationals. Corbin is having a disastrous season on the mound for Washington and has been particularly poor on the road this year. Regardless of the pitchers here, I am going with the home team run line in this one. The Nationals are 17-41 against teams with a winning record this season and also an incredibly poor 9-40 in divisional games this season. This one sets up well to be another home blowout as Philly has been hot and the Nats have remained ice cold. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -125 |
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08-05-22 | Angels v. Mariners OVER 7 | Top | 4-3 | Push | 0 | 16 h 60 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 -125 or 7 +105 in Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels @ 10:10 ET - We get a very low total here because of the fact neither one of these lineups is particularly impressive right now plus the fact that Sandoval and Ray each certainly carry solid reputations as starting pitchers in the betting markets. As we dive into this one you will see why I think we have fantastic line value here with this low total and I am going with a big play here as a result. Sandoval actually has allowed 38 hits in less than 30 innings over his last 6 starts! He went 0-5 with a 6.20 ERA in the month of July! As for Ray, he has been destroyed in each of his last two starts and one of those was at home too. Granted those outings were against Houston but I think the Angels can do plenty of damage against him here as well. Los Angeles is off an 8-7 yesterday and that was the 2nd time in 5 games they reach 7 runs scored. Also, the Angels are 3-1 in last 4 road games and scored an average of 6.3 runs per game in those 3 victories. The LA bullpen has had issues and that is part of the reason LA has allowed at least 7 runs in 6 of 13 games since the break! As for Seattle, they have averaged 7.5 runs in winning each of their past 2 games so they have momentum after the solid performance in the Bronx against the Yankees. 5 of their last 6 games have totaled at least 9 runs and I like the over in this Mariners games no matter who the pitchers are. 10* OVER 6.5 -125 or over 7 +105 in Seattle |
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08-05-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 36 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play UNDER 8.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies @ 9:40 ET - The Diamondbacks Bumgarner has been rock solid at home this season. In fact, taking out the one tough home start he had (versus Dodgers), Bumgarner has allowed a total of only 16 earned runs in 10 starts at home this season. As for the Rockies Marquez, his numbers overall are inflated because of pitching at Coors Field for his home starts. On the road he is quite solid and also he has been rock solid against the Diamondbacks this season too. Just 9 hits allowed in 13 innings at Arizona for Marquez. Regardless of the pitchers here I do like the under as Colorado, yesterday at San Diego notwithstanding, normally does not score well on the road. The Rockies had scored an average of just 2.2 runs per game last 5 games prior to the win yesterday over the Padres. As for Arizona, they have lost 5 of 6 and scored an average of just 2.4 runs (not including extra innings run) in those 5 losses. 10* UNDER 8.5 in Arizona |
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08-04-22 | Red Sox v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:10 ET - The Royals are likely to pound Pivetta here. The Red Sox right-hander has just had a disastrous July in which he went winless in 5 starts and had a 9.38 ERA and he got hammered at a .371 clip. Boston also should have the sticks going tonight as Bubic starts for KC and is 1-4 with a 6.32 ERA in home games and 1-3 with a 6.30 ERA in night games this season. Bubic has been hit at around a .300 clip at home and in night games. Regardless of the starting pitchers here, note that Boston has gone 3-7 last 10 road games and allowed 6.2 runs per game during stretch. The Royals have allowed 6.5 runs per game last 6 games. So not exactly stellar bullpen work going on for either one of these clubs and the Royals now back home where they have gone 7-5 last dozen games and scored an average of 5.3 runs per game in those 7 victories. 10* OVER 8.5 in Kansas City |
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08-04-22 | Nationals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -112 vs Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - With rallying for a 3-1 win yesterday over the Braves, Philly continues to build momentum. Before too much longer, Harper is expected back in the lineup for the Phillies and they have maintained a wild card spot even with him out of the lineup. This speaks volumes to the fact this Philly team has a solid clubhouse and is building momentum. Now they see newly acquired Syndergaard make his Phillies debut tonight and they can take on the NL East punching bag otherwise known as the Nationals. Espino has been rather unimpressive this season on the mound for Washington and, regardless of the pitchers here, I am going with the home team run line in this one. The Nationals are 17-39 against teams with a winning record this season and also an incredibly poor 9-38 in divisional games this season. This one sets up well to be a road rout as Philly has been hot and the Nats have remained cold. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -112 |
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08-03-22 | Dodgers v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 9:45 ET - Action on pitchers. This is a contrarian play because Julio Urias is on the mound for the Dodgers and he has solid numbers this season and has been strong against the Giants. What I like about San Francisco here is they have scored at least 4 runs in 4 of last 6 games. Similar to yesterday's 9-5 LA win I feel we will see plenty of runs scored here. The Giants last 6 games with the Dodgers have totaled an average of 10.3 runs per game. San Francisco has scored an average of 5 runs per game last dozen home games. The Dodgers have been swinging hot bats and averaging 6.5 runs per game last 19 games! That is why I don't care who the pitchers are here but I will mention that the Giants are expected to go with Alex Cobb. He has some good numbers recently but does struggle when facing more potent lineups. The Dodgers are a case in point as Cobb just allowed 4 earned runs in less than 6 innings in his most recent start against them. 10* OVER 7.5 in San Francisco |
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08-03-22 | Tigers v. Twins OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers @ 1:10 ET - Decent winds in Minneapolis expected for this one and I feel that will help the ball carry a little better than usual too. Alexander the expected starter for the Tigers and he has not fared well as a starter, has struggled more on the road, and struggled in day games. It all adds up to a huge game at the plate for the Twins. As for Minnesota starter Ryan, the problem is that he just got destroyed and allowed 5 homers in his most recent start. Yes he was previously throwing quite well but I know that all the long balls just have to be in the back of his mind entering this one and the Tigers have been hitting decently of late. In fact, that is why I like the over here regardless of who the starting pitchers end up being. Detroit averaging 4.3 runs per game last 9 games but allowing 5 runs per game in going 3-8 last 11 games prior to yesterday's win. The Twins had seen 8 straight games total at least 9 runs prior to the last 3 games not reaching that number. Still 2 of those 3 got to 8 and I like this one to get to double digits as Minny has scored an average of 6.5 runs per game last 4 times they were off a loss in which they were held to 3 or less runs scored. 10* OVER 8.5 in Minnesota |
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08-03-22 | Phillies +123 v. Braves | Top | 3-1 | Win | 123 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +123 @ Atlanta Braves @ 12:20 ET - The Phillies got destroyed 13 to 1 yesterday. Now they hand the ball to staff ace Zack Wheeler who is 9-2 with a 2.05 ERA his last 16 starts after he began the season in early April with a rare rough patch. He has dominated practically ever since. As for Charlie Morton, the veteran has great long-term numbers but the Phillies have hit him hard this season and it continues here. Regardless of the pitchers, I like Philly here as they had won 5 straight before that loss yesterday and will bounce back off the destruction. 10* PHILADELPHIA +123 |
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08-02-22 | Orioles v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles @ 8:05 ET - Spencer Howard off a decent start for the Rangers but he entered that start with a 7.11 ERA and getting hit at a .306 clip on the season. Jordan Lyles got hammered in his most recent road start and that was the 5th time he has been hammered in his last 7 away from home. Lyles allowed 4 or more earned runs in 4 of last 6 away from home. Regardless of the pitching match-up here, I do like the over as the Orioles are off a 7-2 win yesterday and, other than a shutout loss to the Yankees, have averaged 4.6 runs per game in their other 10 games since returning from the break. Also, keep in mind, Baltimore had average 5.2 runs per game in going 11-2 in their final 13 games before the break as well. The Rangers had won 3 of 4 overall and scored an average of 5.3 runs per game before yesterday's ugly loss. Also, yesterday's 7-2 home loss was the 9th time last 12 home games that a Texas home game totaled at least 9 runs. The Rangers averaged 5.4 runs in their last 10 home games prior to scoring just 2 runs yesterday. Like the value with this low total no matter who is on the mound as I expect the high-scoring trends noted above to continue. 10* OVER 8.5 in Texas |
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08-02-22 | Phillies +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 1-13 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line +1.5 -105 @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 ET - A lot of value here with Phillies +1.5 runs. Philadelphia is on a 34-18 run overall and plus 5 of their 10 most recent losses have been by just a single run! In fact, 21 of the Phillies last 26 games have been either outright wins or a loss by a single run. Good value here with the +1.5 as this is a match up of two hot teams but the Braves appear to be a little over-priced here. PHI has won 5 straight games and ATL has won 3 in a row. Philadelphia has averaged 5.4 runs per game last 7 games. Atlanta has averaged scoring just 3.4 runs per game last 7 games. I will challenge the hosts to win this game by more than a single run as I envision a tight battle all the way. The Phillies just faced Strider and should enjoy more success in the quick second look at him. Nelson has allowed only 1 earned run in the 6.1 innings spanning his last 3 road appearances for the Phillies. 10* PHILADELPHIA +1.5 -105 |
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08-01-22 | Royals v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals @ 8:10 ET - Action on pitchers. The expected starers are Michael Kopech versus Brad Keller. More on them in a minute. What I like about this play is the fact the Royals last 13 road games have featured 9 that have totaled at least 9 runs. In fact, those 9 games averaged totaling 12.3 runs per game so it is not like they are just squeaking over the total. As for the White Sox, they are off B2B low-scoring wins over an A's team that is just not known for much scoring. However, prior to Chicago's last 2 games totaling just 5 runs apiece, the White Sox saw 9 of 11 games total at least 9 runs. In fact, those 9 games averaged 10.4 runs per game. You can see why multiple signs point to an over here regardless of the pitchers. The expected pitching match-up is Kopech versus Keller as noted above. Kopech has good overall numbers on the season but has been walking too many of late and this led to a 1.82 WHIP in July. Overall his last 7 starts have seen him go 2-4 and he has a 6.19 ERA last 3 home starts. As for Keller, he has also has been struggling with walks allowed in last 2 starts and, overall, has been hit hard in 3 of his last 4 starts. Keller is 3-7 with a 4.83 ERA in night starts this season. Both teams should have plenty of scoring opportunities in this one and, like so often of late with these clubs, look for a total of at least 9 runs in this one but really double digits quite likely. 10* OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox |
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07-31-22 | A's v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Chicago White Sox -1.5 -125 vs Oakland A's @ 2:10 ET - Action on pitchers because the White Sox just so much better than the A's and I am comfortable backing Chicago no matter what here. However, the expected starting pitching match-up certainly does not hurt us! Dylan Cease and Adam Oller at different ends of the spectrum from sure. Cease has gone 6-1 with one no decision in his last 8 starts. Incredibly, Cease has allowed a TOTAL of ONLY 3 runs in these 8 starts and he went at least 5 innings in each start and averaged 6 innings per start. As for Oller, he has been okay out of the bullpen this season but has been back in the rotation again this month and the struggles have continued. Oller is 1-3 with a 9.75 ERA in his 6 starts this season! Better team, better lineup, home field edge, and the expected starting pitching match-up features two guys at opposite ends of the spectrum right now. 10* CHICAGO WHITE SOX -1.5 -125 |
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07-31-22 | Mets v. Marlins OVER 7 | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 7 in Miami Marlins vs New York Mets @ 1:40 ET - Being a contrarian is something that has served me well through the years and I expect that to be the case again here. Action on pitchers. The expected pitchers are Walker and Lopez. No matter who pitches I like the over after the Marlins got shutout yesterday. The Marlins Lopez had trade rumors flying around him and certainly this could have taken a toll on him. Though off a quality start it was his first since early this month and he did get hammered by the Mets in mid-June. I know he had success against him since then in a start but New York enters this game having won 5 straight games and scoring an average of 5.4 runs per game. The Marlins have averaged 5 runs per game this season when off a shutout loss and they respond big here. Taijuan Walker has been solid for the Mets but he did allow 8 hits in 6 innings in his only start at Miami this season. More of the same here and, regardless of pitchers, Mets stay hot at the plate as they go for 6 straight wins and the Marlins respond off the home shutout. 10* OVER 7 in Miami |
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07-31-22 | Tigers v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers @ 12:05 ET - Action on pitchers. Expected starters Hill and Berrios. Note that Hills is unproven at the MLB level and the inexperienced hurler has a 7.20 ERA last 3 starts. I know Berrios is a rock solid pitcher overall but he has allowed 28 hits in 23 innings in home starts in July. Also, Berrios has a 6.02 ERA in day games this season. The Tigers actually had 10 hits in yesterday's loss and have been swinging the bats better overall of late. The Blue Jays are a very dangerous lineup and this is particularly true at home. After some games falling just short of the over so far in this series look for this one to fly over the total. Toronto has a breakout game and the Tigers scratch more runs than many are expecting here. Detroit has scored an average of 5 runs per game last 6 games. 10* OVER 9 in Toronto |
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07-30-22 | A's v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Oakland A's @ 7:15 ET - The White Sox have seen 8 of last 9 games total at least 9 runs and that includes 6 of 7 since the All-Star break. The A's won yesterday's match-up 7-3 and have now won 7 of 8 games and scored an average of 5.5 runs per game. Oakland has putrid numbers on offense for the season but they actually have been hitting better since even before the All-Star break when they won 3 of last 5 games before the break plus averaged scoring 5.5 runs per game the final 6 games before the break. That is why, regardless of the pitchers here, I like the over in this match-up. However, I will mention the expected starters are Cueto versus Blackburn. Note that Cueto has been solid overall but does have an ERA two runs higher at home compared to on the road this season. Also, Blackburn is enduring a very rough stretch with 6 of his last 7 starts being tough. Blackburn gave up 8 hits in 5.1 innings back in a mid-June start but was fortunate to escape major damage in that one. Since then though his poor form is reflecting in an ERA climb from a 2.26 on the season to a 4.35 ERA now with getting clobbered in 5 of last 6 starts. More of the same expected here but, again, action on pitchers here for me. 10* OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox |
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07-30-22 | Tigers v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 -130 vs Detroit Tigers @ 3:07 ET - The Tigers are off the big upset win of the Jays 4-2 yesterday. However, Detroit is 0-5 the last 5 times they were off a win and every single loss in that run was by at least a 2-run margin. In fact, the combined score of those 5 games was 29 to 9. Look for the Tigers to again get blasted in that situation here as, prior to yesterday's win, Detroit was 4-13 last 17 games! The Blue Jays are 3-0 last 3 times when off a loss. Prior to yesterday's loss, Toronto was 10-2 last 12 games. Toronto so strong against bad teams while Tigers so bad on the road. Also, 50 of Detroit's 60 losses this season by 2 or more runs. The expected pitching match-up is Stripling (5-2 last 7 decisions) versus Hutchison (1-4 this season) but, no matter the pitchers, this is simply a case the home team should roll huge in a bounce back spot! Action on pitchers. 10* TORONTO -1.5 -130 |
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07-29-22 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Coming right back with the same play I successfully used yesterday. As noted yesterday, the Dodgers bullpen has not been as strong as this season and the Rockies are known for hitting very well at home. After getting shutout at home yesterday, Colorado bounces back at the plate today while the Dodgers again pile up big runs like they did in yesterday's 13-0 outburst. At hitter friendly Coors Field, regardless of the pitching match-up here, the ball is going to be carrying well and both these teams can mash the ball. Colorado averaging about 6 runs per game at home this season. Dodgers averaging 5.3 runs per game on the road this season. Now, at Coors Field, the LA lineup delivers an especially huge road effort here. They got shutout by Chad Kuhl here at the end of last month. Now it is time for payback. Kuhl has been struggling badly ever since that start. Likewise, Julio Urias is off a surprisingly good start the last time he pitched at Coors Field but this followed a lot of struggles in recent starts at Coors Field including one this season and multiple ones last season. No matter the pitchers, the Dodgers bats stay hot and the Rockies bats bounce right back on their home field. 10* OVER 11.5 in Colorado |
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07-29-22 | Diamondbacks v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 7:20 ET - Action on pitchers because the key here is two hot lineups. Bumgarner has struggled all season on the road and now faces a red hot Braves lineup in this one. Wright has been pitching very well for the Braves but he has been hit harder in a number of starts the past 6 weeks as has been fortunate he got out of a number of jams. Wright had one start in his last 7 where he pitched more than 4 innings and allowed 3 or less hits. However, in his other 6 starts since mid-June, Wright has given up 46 hits in 34 and 1/3 innings. I feel we have good value here with this low total. The Braves have seen EACH of their last ELEVEN games total at least 9 runs so here we are testing a streak that is 11 in a row! The Diamondbacks have scored an average of 6.5 runs per game in going 5-1 in their 6 games since the All-Star break. The Braves have scored an average of 5 runs per game last 10 games. More of the same here. 10* OVER 8.5 in Atlanta |
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07-28-22 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 13-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 12 runs in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:40 ET - Someone knows something. You have, I am sure, heard that expression before and it definitely applies here. This total opened up at an 11.5 and is up to a solid 12 across the board. This is even though Urena has a 3.13 ERA for the Rockies and Anderson is 10-1 with a 2.79 ERA. In other words, don't let the numbers fool you. This game is going over the total. So, if you look deeper, Urena is fortunate to have that low ERA and starting to show signs he is about to get crushed and I am sure the potent Dodgers lineup can be the one to inflict the damage here. As for Anderson his only loss this season was at Coors Field and he gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings in that one. The damage could have been worse for Anderson in that one as he got two double plays and one was a line drive double play. He got hit hard and I expect more of the same here and the Dodgers bullpen has not been as strong as this season and the Rockies are known for hitting very well at home. At hitter friendly Coors Field, regardless of the pitching match-up here, the ball is going to be carrying well and both these teams can mash the ball. Colorado averaging about 6 runs per game at home this season. Dodgers averaging 5.3 runs per game on the road this season. Now, at Coors Field, the LA lineup delivers an especially huge road effort here. 10* OVER 12 in Colorado |
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07-28-22 | Tigers v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:07 ET - The Tigers Alexander is getting hit at over a .300 clip on the season in road games and has hardly started this season as he has mostly worked out of the pen. The Blue Jays Kikuchi has been hit at a .300 clip since late May as he just has not been right and I expect his struggles to continue here. The Tigers have seen 3 of last 4 road games total at least 9 runs. Detroit enters this game having scored an average of 6.7 runs last 3 games and, prior to a 4-3 win yesterday, the Tigers had seen 4 straight games total at least 10 runs. The Blue Jays had won 7 straight games before yesterday's 6-1 loss. Toronto has scored at least 6 runs in 6 of last 8 victories. More of the same on tap here and both teams score well regardless of the pitching match-up. 10* OVER 8.5 in Toronto |
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07-26-22 | White Sox v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
MLB 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:40 ET - Action on pitchers. The Rockies are 6-4 last 10 games and had averaged 6.3 runs per game prior to yesterday's low-scoring 2-0 win at Milwaukee. Colorado is known for hitting better at home and should dominate at the plate in this one. The issue is that Rockies pitchers are known for struggling at home too. Regardless of the pitchers I like the over here but will mention that the expected match-up is Marquez versus Kopech. Note that Marquez has a 6.63 ERA at home this season and opponents have hit .311 against him there. Kopech has a WHIP of nearly 2 baserunners per inning this month because he has been hit quite hard in his 3 starts plus he is walking too many guys. Now he makes his first ever start at hitter-friendly Coors Field and this place has a reputation of being very tough on first-time starters here. No matter the pitchers, I also like the fact that White Sox have averaged 5.8 runs per game in going 6-4 last 10 games. Should see plenty of runs in this one given the hot bats and confidence in each lineup. 10* OVER 10.5 in Colorado |
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07-26-22 | Angels v. Royals OVER 8 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 60 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels @ 8:10 ET - Action on pitchers. The Angels every once in awhile have breakout games at the plate and this looks like one of those spots. Action on pitchers because if Zerpa does not start for Royals it would be no one special in this spot. Zerpa is very inexperience and he was fortunate in his most recent start as he gave up a lot of hard hit balls that ended up being outs. That is helping to give us value here. As for the Angels Suarez is the expected starter and he has been struggling. Overall, the pitching does not matter that much for LA either because they continue to give up a lot of runs in almost every game. Angels have allowed 7 runs per game on average in the 8 losses in their current 2-8 run. If we can keep the rain away from KC long enough to get this one in, we should cash an easy ticket as the low total is a bargain considering no top starting pitchers are available to start this one for either team. So no matter who is on the mound, the hitters should enjoy success here. 10* OVER 8 in Kansas City |
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07-26-22 | Braves v. Phillies +110 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +110 vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - Action on pitchers. Philly has played Atlanta tough this season and it continued yesterday with rallying for the 6-4 win which gives them momentum entering this game. Braves have just a .500 record against teams with a winning record this season and have not been great on the road this season against winning teams. That said, I love the home dog value here regardless of the pitching match-up. However, will mention that the expected starters are Nola versus Strider. Phillies Nola known for being so strong at home through the years and he also is 2-0 this season versus Atlanta. The Braves Strider is off a tough start and, overall, he has not been as strong in his last two outings. 10* PHILADELPHIA +110 |
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07-25-22 | Nationals v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -140 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 -145 vs Washington Naitonals @ 10:10 ET - Action on pitchers. You see the money line of -290 for the Dodgers on this game? What if I told you that you could play the Dodgers money line at HALF that price today? The fact is that you just about are! The reason I say that is that LA has won 64 games this season and, amazingly, despite playing their home games in a pitchers park generally known for tighter and lower-scoring games the Dodgers actually have 57 wins by 2 or more runs! That is right, effectively 8 out of every 9 Dodgers wins is by a multi-run margin and I certainly expect a win today and I definitely do not expect it be an outlier. Look for another win by a multi-run margin. Regardless of pitching match-up we have the more dominant team and they are at home! Not only that, in terms of the pitchers (again, I want action) the Dodgers Gonsolin has been absolutely dominant including 11-0 on the season and a 1.13 ERA and a .130 BAA in home games. Nationals Espino starting to falter after pitching "over his head" earlier this season as he has been roughed up in 4 straight starts and hit quite hard in each of last 6 starts. So we have the better lineup, home field, and a starting pitching edge based on the expected starters. Also, LA has won 8 straight while Washington had lost 17 of 19 before yesterday's win. 10* LA Dodgers -1.5 -145 |
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07-25-22 | Astros v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Oakland A's vs Houston Astros @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. The Astros have won 5 straight games coming out of the All Star break and scored an average of 6 runs per game last 4 games. Oakland is known for having a decrepit offense but they erupted late in yesterday 11-8 loss to Texas and, overall, the Athletics have been scoring better recently. That is why I like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers and I will note that the A's have scored an average of 5 runs per game last 4 games. Now, about those expected pitchers. Jake Odorizzi will be facing the A's for a 3rd straight start. That is never easy for a starter and he did get hit harder in the 2nd than the 1st. Also, in his start prior to these two he was rocked by Kansas City. That said, this is the right time to expect Odorizzi to again get hit hard. As for Adam Oller, he has been respectable out of the bullpen this season but struggled badly as a starter for Oakland this season. The A's right-hander is 0-3 with a 10.89 in his 5 starts this season. Two confident teams squaring off tonight - based on results since the break - and the lineups will key a solid over here in my strong opinion. 10* OVER 8 in Oakland |
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07-24-22 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 105 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 +105 vs San Francisco Giants @ 4:10 ET - Action on pitchers. You see the money line of -200 for the Dodgers on this game? What if I told you that you could play the Dodgers money line at even money today? The fact is that you just about are! The reason I say that is that LA has won 63 games this season and, amazingly, despite playing their home games in a pitchers park generally known for tighter and lower-scoring games the Dodgers actually have 56 wins by 2 or more runs! That is right, effectively 8 out of every 9 Dodgers wins is by a multi-run margin and I certainly expect a win today and I definitely do not expect it be an outlier. Regardless of pitching match-up we have the more dominant team and they are at home! Not only that, in terms of the pitchers (again, I want action) the Dodgers Kershaw has been absolutely dominant while Cobb is starting to falter after pitching "over his head" earlier this season. So we have the better lineup, home field, and a starting pitching edge based on the expected starters. That is why LA is a 2 to 1 favorite and I will gladly grab the even money on the run line in this one. 10* LA Dodgers -1.5 +105 |
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07-24-22 | Rangers v. A's OVER 7.5 | Top | 11-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Oakland Athletics vs Texas Rangers @ 4:07 ET - Action on pitchers. I lost a very big play yesterday involving this match-up and am not happy about it at all but we'll get some payback today. Crazy things happening all in one game are part of the business and why there is never a sure thing in sports betting but, over the long haul, the right handicaps can produce more winners than not. Yesterday's game ended with a 1-2-3 top of the 9th inning for the Rangers. However in the first 8 innings of the game - so a total of 16 half-innings - the teams only had ONE 1-2-3 inning each the entire time. That means in 14 of the 16 half-innings the teams had at least one runner on base. It was a disgusting thing to watch unfold when you have an over and so many opportunities get wasted but you must press forward and shake off nonsense like yesterday's final result. So I mentioned yesterday this series has been trending over and we have another low total to work with here and we saw again yesterday that both bullpens were shaky and got into trouble frequently. That said, I again like the over here no matter who pitches plus I like the fact this one is a day game and that is a little better for scoring runs in terms of games played by the bay. That said, will touch on the pitchers here. Expected starting pitching match-up is Perez vs Blackburn. Note that Perez has a 5.09 ERA in his 3 starts this month and opponents hit .315 against him in his 5 starts last month. Also his ERA is nearly 3 runs higher in day games compared to night games. As for Blackburn, he has a 6.06 ERA in his 3 starts this month and he had a 5.13 ERA while being hit at a .306 clip last month. He also has an ERA nearly 5 runs higher at home compared to on the road! This is a play regardless of starting pitchers but you can see why I like it so much. Revenge payback here will be SWEET! 10* OVER 7.5 in Oakland |
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07-24-22 | Cubs v. Phillies -130 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -130 vs Chicago Cubs @ 12:05 ET - Action on pitchers. Cubs have taken first two games of this series and are on a 3-game winning streak. However, Chicago has only managed a 4-game winning streak this entire season. Also, the Cubs are still only 3-9 last dozen games and 22-37 against teams with a winning record while Phillies have won 24 of 40 versus teams with a losing record this season. Also, the Phillies Bailey Falter has been piling up the strikeouts and is poised for a win here. The Cubs Drew Smyly has struggled since returning to the rotation this month and, keep in mind, he has a 5.26 ERA since late April. No matter the pitchers here I see the Phillies saving face here and avoiding the sweep and we get a bargain price because of Falter being the scheduled starter here for the hosts. He and the Phils will not "falter" here and get the home win at a great price. Also, the Phillies have never been swept at home in a series of at least 3 games this entire season. I don't see that changing here! 10* PHILADELPHIA -130 |
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07-23-22 | Rangers v. A's OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Oakland A's vs Texas Rangers @ 9:07 ET - Action on the pitchers. Love the way the series has been playing out between these teams in terms of overs. 6 of the last 7 games between these teams have totaled at least 9 runs and, in fact, have averaged 13.4 runs per game! These teams are very familiar with each others bullpen arms but we get a low total to work with here because Oakland is known as a low-scoring team. Keep in mind, the Rangers have scored 5.3 runs per game last 14 games. The A's have scored 5 runs per game last 9 games. In terms of the starters here, which again are NOT the key factors here, it is expected to be Hearn versus Kaprielian but it would not shock me if Texas went with Bush as an opener. In any event, Hearn will be sent back to AAA Round Rock after this start because Dunning is due back from the DL for the Rangers. That is not exactly motivating for Hearn as his fate is sealed. This is a spot start for a guy who has a 5.78 ERA on the season including an awful 8.61 ERA in his 5 road starts! The A's have seen him this year and the Rangers also just saw Kaprielian. The Oakland right-hander is winless with a 5.40 ERA in his 6 home starts this season and also has a 5.31 ERA in night games this season. Look for the runs to keep flowing here no matter who is on the mound for either team and this one should get a solid win for us. 10* OVER 7.5 in Oakland |
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07-23-22 | Nationals v. Diamondbacks -141 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Arizona Diamondbacks -145 vs Washington Nationals @ 8:10 ET - Action on pitchers. Why? Because the match-up could be Daffy Duck vs Mickey Mouse and I would still take the home team based on the key statistical TEAM factors but I will note that I do like Bumgarner over Sanchez for sure. As for the teams, the Nationals are just in a horrible funk and have lost 16 of 18 games after getting hammered by the Diamondbacks yesterday. As for Arizona, they are actually 10-3 against NL teams this season and have won 6 of last 11 home games. Now back to the pitchers again, Sanchez is 4-6 with a 6.67 ERA in his last dozen starts at the MLB level. He also struggled at AAA level and walked too many in his 3 starts there this season. Bumgarner has had his share of struggles this season for sure but he has been better of late and the big key with him is he is a different pitcher when he is at home. The big lefty has a 3.15 ERA in his 10 home starts this season and that would be under a 3.00 were it not for one bad start he had in Arizona this season. In other words, the odds favor a strong start from here. But, regardless of the pitchers, the home team should prove well worth the juice in this one. Lay it! 10* ARIZONA -145 |
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07-23-22 | Guardians v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
MLB Saturday MLB 10* Top Play UNDER 9 in Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians @ 1:10 ET (Gm 1 of DH) - Action on pitchers. I like the fact this is an early game coming off last night's game having been the first action for each of these clubs since the All Star break. Look for the bats to be a little sleepy in this early start and I expect an under no matter who the pitchers are. However, I will say that the expected pitchers are McKenzie for the Guardians and Cueto for the White Sox. McKenzie has not allowed a run this entire month while allowing just 9 hits but striking out 23 in 21 innings! Cueto is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his 3 July starts this month. Also, Cueto has a 1.69 ERA in his 5 games (4 starts) in daytime action this season. The bats struggle here after yesterday's game was a rare, surprisingly easy over. This one plays out much differently early Saturday. 10* UNDER 9 in Chicago White Sox (Game 1) |
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07-22-22 | Cubs v. Phillies -125 | Top | 15-2 | Loss | -125 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -125 vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - Action on pitchers. The Phillies are offering solid line value here regardless of the pitchers. The Phillies are 24-14 this season against teams with a losing record. The Cubs are 21-40 this season against teams with a winning record. Philly has the better lineup and Chicago is giving up a full run more per game than Philadelphia is on the season. Also, Justin Steele is the expected starter for Cubs and has been respectable at home but his winless with a 5.86 ERA in his 6 road starts this season. For the Phillies, Kyle Gibson has 1 win in his 9 road starts this seasons but he is a solid 4-1 in his 9 home starts this season. Again, this play is action on pitchers but I do like the expected match-up. The key here is Phillies have won 28 of last 42 games for 67% while Cubs have won just 3 of 14 games for only 21% recently. 10* PHILADELPHIA -125 |
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07-22-22 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 10 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 10 in Cincinnati Reds vs St Louis Cardinals @ 6:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Plenty of runs here on a hot evening at a hitter-friendly ballpark regardless of the starting pitchers. I will mention them here right away though and say that Adam Wainwright has been known for a very long time for struggling on the road and excelling at home and this season has been no different. Wainwright's road ERA is a full 2 runs higher and his BAA is 55 points higher on the road compared to at home. As for the Reds Graham Ashcraft, he has solid numbers at home on the season but his current form has been rough and that included getting hit hard in each of his two most recent home starts too. Overall, Ashcraft has been hit hard in 5 of his last 6 starts and his ERA has climbed a full 3 runs as a result. Now, about those lineups...the Cardinals are 5-2 last 7 games and have scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch. The Reds are 6-3 last 9 games and have scored 5 runs per game on average during this stretch. 6-5 type game sounds about right here but I am expecting much more honestly and this one should fly over the total and get past the dozen mark in runs. 10* OVER 10 in Cincinnati |
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07-21-22 | Tigers v. A's OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Oakland A's vs Detroit Tigers @ 3:37 ET (Game 1 of 2) - Action on pitchers. Oakland is not known for scoring many runs yet they have averaged 5.5 runs per game last 6 games. They also have allowed an average of 5.3 runs per game last 7 games. Tigers, prior to shutout in final game before break, did score an average of 4 runs per game last dozen games. Detroit allowed an average of 5.9 runs per game final 10 games before the All-Star break. Given all these numbers you can understand why I like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers but I will touch on the expected starters here. The Tigers Skubal has allowed 29 earned runs in 35 innings spanning his last 7 starts. That is a 7.46 ERA his last 7 starts. The A's Zach Logue has allowed 13 earned runs in 12 innings over his last 3 starts and has given up 5 homers in those 3 outings. Given all of the above and nice afternoon weather by the bay, this one should more scoring than most are expecting! 10* OVER 7.5 in Oakland |
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07-21-22 | Rangers +108 v. Marlins | Top | 8-0 | Win | 108 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Texas Rangers +108 @ Miami Marlins @ 1:10 ET - Action on pitchers. Both Gray and Lopez are solid pitchers. The key here is grabbing the better hitting team and a team that is poised for a rebound of good fortune in the 2nd half of the season. The Rangers and Marlins are the only two teams that have lost at least 20 games by just a single run this season. The difference though is Miami has 16 one-run wins while the Rangers have the fewest in the majors with just 5. That means Texas is a respectable 36-29 in games decided by 2+ runs. They could be in for a turnaround in the 2nd half based on numbers like this. In this particular match-up I like the fact that the Marlins are on a 4-8 run and have only one NON-extra inning win in those 12 games! Miami has scored an average of just 1.3 runs per game last 8 losses. Amazingly, the Marlins last 13 home games have seen Miami score more than 3 runs in regulation time (9 innings) NOT once! 0 for 13 in terms of scoring more than 3 in 9 innings at home! As for the Rangers, they did enter the All-Star break on a frustrating home losing streak but have scored an average of 5.7 runs per game last 15 road games. The better lineup is the key to a road win in this one. 10* TEXAS +108 |
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07-19-22 | American League v. National League -110 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play National League -110 vs American League @ 7:30 ET - Long-time followers know I am a contrarian. I am well aware of the fact that the AL has won 8 straight All-Star Games. However, prior to last year's AL win at Coors Field by a 5-2 count, each of the 4 last victories for the AL had been by 2 or less runs and that included 2 that went 10 innings. Enough is enough and I like the NL (a lot!) here at home in this one. Looking at the pitching I feel the NL has the right guys peaking at the right times and I just do not see the AL doing much at the plate in this one and the NL will do enough for the win. I also prefer the NL roster in terms of hitters heading into this one. The AL pitching roster includes guys who have been a bit more hittable of late and I like the NL to find a way at home and finally put the streak to an end. Even though this game does not carry any real weight in terms of motivation, trust me, there is some extra motivation from the NL side to put an end to the streak. Couple the motivation factor with the home field edge and I feel this is a bargain price on the senior circuit. 10* NATIONAL LEAGUE -110 |
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07-17-22 | Phillies -145 v. Marlins | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -145 @ Miami Marlins @ 1:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Of course I like the fact that Nola gives the Phillies a big edge over Rogers and the Marlins. However, there is much more than the starting pitching to like here and this play is action on the pitchers. Philadelphia has won 5 of last 7 meetings between these teams. The Phillies overall have won 27 of their last 41 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 7 games versus Miami. The Marlins are on a 4-7 run and have only one non-extra inning win in those 11 games! Miami has scored an average of just 1.4 runs per game last 7 losses. Amazingly, the Marlins last dozen have games have seen Miami score more than 3 runs in regulation time (9 innings) NOT once! 0 for 12 in terms of scoring more than 3 in 9 innings at home! That said, and knowing Phillies can score plenty here, I love the road team in this one. Will mention that the expected starters are Nola and Rogers and Nola has a solid ERA, particularly on the road this season, while Rogers has a high ERA and has been struggling lately and has had rough times in his two starts versus Phillies this season. 10* PHILADELPHIA -145 |
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07-17-22 | Orioles v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 105 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 1:40 ET - Action on the pitchers. This one is about two hot teams and two hot lineups that have plenty of confidence right now at the plate. Yes, yesterday's game took extra innings to get over the total but I do not expect to need that here and this total just too low (at 7.5) in my opinion. First off, will mention that I know Jordan Lyles has been better of late but he still has a 5.52 ERA this season in road starts and this is nothing new as he is 8-19 in road starts the last 3 seasons combined. His ERA away from home during this 3-year stretch is a 5.82 ERA. Corey Kluber certainly has been rock solid lately for the Rays but a closer look shows he got some key breaks in the start versus Boston in his last home start. Before back to back solid starts versus Red Sox, Kluber had a 5.65 ERA in his 3 prior starts. Also, his last two home starts before the one against Boston, he allowed 11 hits in 10 and 1/3 innings. The Orioles have won 11 of 12 games and have scored an average of 5.4 runs per game last 11 games. The total on this game is just 7.5 runs and the Rays 14 of last 19 games have totaled at least 8 runs. Tampa Bay had won 10 of 14 games before yesterday's loss and TB scored an average of 6.6 runs per game in those 10 victories. Again, two hot teams with confident lineups at the plate and the runs will come here and we take advantage of the low total. 10* OVER 7.5 in Tampa Bay |
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07-17-22 | Royals v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 9* Top Play OVER 9 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals @ 12:05 ET - Action on pitchers. Well aware of the fact that Jose Berrios is off a 13-strikeout performance versus Phillies in last start. However, he has a 6.62 ERA in his 7 day game starts this season and this is a particularly early one. As for the Royals Kris Bubic, he is having a tough season and it includes 0-3 with a 6.64 ERA in his 7 day game starts. Kansas City's last 8 road games have featured 6 that totaled at least 9 runs. The Royals have scored an average of 5 runs in these 8 games. The Blue Jays, since June 1st, have played 26 home games and 21 of them have totaled at least 9 runs. You can see why this match-up is about much more than just the starting pitching - again, my play here is action - but you can also see, per the above, why we might see some struggles from each of the expected starters in this match-up too. Look for double digits in runs scored and, unlike yesterday's game, this one will not need extra innings to get there! 9* OVER 9 in Toronto |
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07-16-22 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners @ 4:05 ET - Action on pitchers. Even against a struggling A's offense, Howard allowed 6 hits in 5 innings in his most recent start. He only allowed 1 earned run but only struck out 1 and remains very hittable and has an 8.04 ERA on the season. Gilbert has a fantastic ERA on the season for the Mariners but he allowed 2 homers for the 3rd time in his last 4 starts when he gave up a pair against the Blue Jays in his most recent start. No matter the starting pitchers here (my play is action), note that Seattle has won 12 straight games and score an average of 5.7 runs per game last 10 games. The Rangers have scored an average of 6.3 runs per game in the first 8 games of this 10-game homestand and yesterday was the first time they have been held below 5 runs in any of these games! 10* OVER 8.5 in Texas |
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07-16-22 | Pirates v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 3:10 ET - Action on pitchers. Love this situation regardless of the pitchers but will mention that the expected starters include a righty for Rockies and that does hold some significance here though it is not the only factor. Pittsburgh is a lineup dominated by left-handed bats. Not only is Jose Urena a right-handed pitcher, he has been absolutely crushed in recent years against left-handed hitting. Urena also was hit hard by the Pirates earlier this season. As for Pirates right-hander Keller, he has been getting hit hard this month and really has struggled for much of his MLB career. Keller is 10-23 with a 5.65 ERA in his MLB career. So even if these pitchers do not go it still could end up a lefty-righty match-up but either way I like the over here. Note that Pirates, before B2B losses to close series with Marlins, had won 9 of 14 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game in the 9 wins and had allowed an average of 5.7 runs per game last 15 games! As for Rockies, 10 of last 11 home games have all totaled 11 or more runs. Yesterday's game was a huge 13-2 Rockies win and this after an 8-5 Colorado win which followed a 10-6 Rockies win. The teams - faced Padres - combined for 29 hits in that one. Colorado tends to hit very well at home and that has continued of late in a huge way as you can see above. 10* OVER 11.5 in Colorado |
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07-16-22 | White Sox +108 v. Twins | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Chicago White Sox Money Line +110 @ Minnesota Twins @ 2:10 ET - Action on pitchers. The expected starters are Lynn vs Bundy. But, regardless of who actually starts, I like the fact that the White Sox have won 4 straight games and allowed an average of only 1.8 runs per game last 5 games. The Twins have lost 4 of last 5 home games and have averaged only 2.7 runs per game last 7 home games! Minnesota is struggling at the plate while Chicago has exploded for 6.3 runs scored per game last 8 road games and has won 7 of last 9 road games. Action on pitchers because riding the hot team here but will mention that the White Sox will start Lynn and he should respond here as he had given up 19 hits over 22 and 2/3 innings in 4 preceding starts prior to getting roughed up in his most recent outing. As for Bundy, his first 3 starts of the year way back in April were solid but since then the numbers are ugly. 2-4 with a 5.73 ERA. He is in trouble here the way the White Sox are hitting. No matter the pitchers, riding the road team to continue to close the gap in the AL Central standings. 10* CHICAGO WHITE SOX +110 |
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07-15-22 | Pirates v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 2-13 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Love this situation regardless of the pitchers but will mention that the expected starters are a righty for Rockies and a lefty for Pirates and that does hold some significance here though it is not the only factor. Pittsburgh is a lineup dominated by left-handed bats. Not only is Marquez a right-handed pitcher, he has struggled at home this season and also has struggled in recent years against left-handed hitting. As for Pirates Quintana, he has been getting hit hard this month plus in recent seasons the lefty has been pounded by right-handed bats and the Rockies are a lineup that is dominated by right-handed sticks. So even if these pitchers do not go it still could end up a lefty-righty match-up but either way I like the over here. Note that Pirates, before B2B losses to close series with Marlins, had won 9 of 14 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game in the 9 wins and had allowed an average of 5.7 runs per game last 15 games! As for Rockies, 9 of last 10 home games have all totaled 11 or more runs. Yesterday's game was a huge 8-5 Colorado win and this followed a 10-6 Rockies win and the teams combined for 29 hits. Colorado tends to hit very well at home and that has continued of late. 10* OVER 10.5 in Colorado |
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07-15-22 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - Action on pitchers. These teams just met in a series so there is familiarity with the starting pitchers and the bullpen guys. That is a big part of the reason I don't care who the starting pitchers are here either but I will mention them. This play is action. Corbin is having a rough season and he sprinkled in a couple of good starts recently but overall it has been a disaster and he struggled against the Braves recently too. As for Anderson, he had too many walks but held the Nationals in check in most recent start. Now he gives them a quick 2nd look however and, in the 3 starts prior to facing Washington, he allowed 21 hits in 11 innings! The big key here is hot hitting and confidence of a Braves team that is on a 31-10 run. Atlanta has averaged 6 runs per game in the 10 victories in their current 10-4 run last 14 games. Washington has lost 13 of 14 games and allowed 6 runs per game in those 13 defeats. Their bullpen has had major struggles but their lineup does tend to produce a little better when at home and they have averaged 4 runs per game last 11 home games. This one gets to double digits. 10* OVER 9.5 in Washington |
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07-14-22 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 3:10 ET - Action on pitchers. Monday's game saw both starting pitchers work at least 6 innings yet the bullpens combined to allow 7 runs in the final 3 innings of the game. Again this is why you have seen some of the biggest sportsbooks in the world do "action only" as mandatory on their sports bets. The starting pitchers play a role for sure but baseball also is so much more including fielding, baserunning, hitting, bullpens, etc. I digress but, as always, will touch on the starting pitchers here but just remember this play is a go regardless of pitchers. The Rockies 8 of last 9 home games have all totaled 11 or more runs. Yesterday's game was a huge 10-6 Rockies win and the teams combined for 29 hits. Colorado tends to hit very well at home and it will be hot weather in Denver for this afternoon game. Perfect conditions for the ball to carry very well. The Padres, when in hitter-friendly parks away from home, are known to get involving in crazy high-scoring games. Their last 10 games played at Coors Field or Wrigley Field have seen an average of 13 runs per game! I know Snell has been rounding into form for the Padres but Coors Field is not an easy place to pitch. Snell has been rocked in his 3 starts here in 2021 and 2022. Also, his name on the mound for tonight is what is helping to keep this total low. As for Rockies Freeland, he has had a rough start to July plus the Padres will be facing him for the 3rd time since mid-June. Familiarity like this often leads to success for the hitters particularly when a guy is currently struggling. 10* OVER 11.5 in Colorado |
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07-14-22 | Pirates v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 12:10 ET - Action on this play. Yesterday's game was 1-0 heading to bottom of 8th and then ended up being a game that totaled 9 runs thanks to extra innings. However, that also goes to show that even if two starting pitchers have great starts it does not always equate to an under. I don't care who the pitchers are here but will touch on them below. I feel both bullpens will again have some issues here and note also that the Pirates had won 9 of 14 games before yesterday's loss and have scored an average of 6 runs per game in the 9 wins and allowed an average of 5.7 runs per game last 15 games! The Marlins have won 9 of 14 games also and so you have a pair of unpopular teams but that are confident teams right now and have extra confidence at the plate as a result. Now, about those expected starters. Garrett off couple good starts on the road but he had been getting hit hard throughout June, his first month of the season, and this was particularly true at home. As for Thompson, he has struggled in away games (5.27 ERA) and day games (.283 BAA). Taking advantage of the low total here. 10* OVER 7.5 in Miami |
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07-13-22 | A's v. Rangers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Texas Rangers vs Oakland A's @ 8:05 ET - Action on pitchers. This is all about high-scoring trending. Yes, I know the Athletics got a pile of runs in the top of the 12th but they had a decent day at the plate up until that point also. Plus you must note that the Rangers 8 of last 10 games have totaled double digits in runs. Texas has been scoring well but also giving up piles of runs. The A's are not a high-scoring team by any stretch of the imagination but they have scored at least 5 runs in 4 of last 8 games overall. Also, on the road, Oakland has scored at least 5 runs in 6 of last 11 road games. No matter who pitches I like the over here as both bullpens have been roughed up in this series too. But I will mention that the expected starters here each give me reason to believe they will struggle. Gray getting hit at a .300 clip this month and has given up a pair of homers in each start. Blackburn off a rough start versus Astros and has been hit hard in 4 of last 5 starts! The low number here is because of the A's long-term reputation and the decent long-term ERA of these two starting pitchers but you can see very clearly, per the above, that there is reason to believe this one comfortably gets over the low total. 10* OVER 7.5 in Texas |
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07-13-22 | Phillies -110 v. Blue Jays | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 0 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -110 @ Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:07 ET - Action on pitchers. The Blue Jays won 4-3 yesterday but had lost 9 of 10 entering that game. The Phillies now have lost 3 straight but had won 25 of 35 games before that. Wheeler is the expected starter for the Phillies and he has won 8 of his last 9 decisions! The Phillies have prevailed in 5 of his last 6 road starts. Stripling is the expected starter for Toronto and he is getting hammered at a .341 clip this month by opposing hitters. The Blue Jays scoring an average of just 2.8 runs per game last 11 games. Phillies, before rare tough 3-game stretch of losses, had gone 7-2 and averaged scoring 5.6 runs per game. They should bounce back strong here regardless of the starting pitchers. Action on the pitchers and look for big road win as the Phillies outhit the Jays in this one after the opposite held true yesterday. 10* PHILADELPHIA -110 |
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07-12-22 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 11 in San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies @ 8:40 ET - Action on pitchers. Yesterday's game saw both starting pitchers work at least 6 innings yet the bullpens combined to allow 7 runs in the final 3 innings of the game. Again this is why you have seen some of the biggest sportsbooks in the world do "action only" as mandatory on their sports bets. The starting pitchers play a role for sure but baseball also is so much more inlcuding fielding, baserunning, hitting, bullpens, etc. I digress but, as always, will touch on the starting pitchers here but just remember this play is a go regardless of pitchers. The Rockies last 6 home games have all totaled 11 or more runs. Colorado tends to hit very well at home and it will be hot weather in Denver for this one. Perfect conditions for the ball to carry very well. The Padres, when in hitter-friendly parks away from home, are known to get involving in crazy high-scoring games. Their last 7 games played at Coors Field or Wrigley Field have seen an average of nearly 14 runs per game! Favorable wind tonight too. I know Clevinger has been rounding into form for the Padres but Coors Field is not an easy place to pitch. Also, his name on the mound for tonight is what is helping to keep this total low. As for Rockies Gomber, he hit a tough patch late last season and has not been the same ever since. He has a 6.46 ERA this season and opponents hitting nearly .300 against him. 10* OVER 11 in Colorado |
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07-12-22 | Reds v. Yankees OVER 8 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -113 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in New York Yankees vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:05 ET - Action on pitchers. This is another one of those "sneaky" totals where we get some extra line value on an over because one team has an "ace" going. Most definitely Cole is one of the top pitchers in the league but he has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts and 10 homers in his last 6 starts. The Reds have been playing better and also have been scoring particularly well on the road too. Cincinnati will surprise by contributing to this total quite well in my opinions. It will be the -300 odds Yankees that do most of the damage of course and I love fading Ashcraft here. He had a great start to the season but is now coming back down to reality and has allowed 21 earned runs on 40 hits in 26 innings spanning his last 5 starts. The Yankees have scored an average of 9 runs per game last 5 games and stay hot at the plate here. They will be "dialed in" I am certain as they are off B2B losses to the Red Sox to wrap the weekend. The Reds have won 6 of last 10 road games and averaged scoring 5.2 runs per game during this stretch. Cincinnati enters this game having won 4 straight games overall and has averaged scoring 5.5 runs per victory. This one should fly over the low number. 10* OVER 8 in New York Yankees |
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07-11-22 | A's v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Texas Rangers vs Oakland Athletics @ 8:05 ET - We get line value here because the A's generally struggle to score runs. However, Oakland has a little extra confidence thanks to having won 3 of 6 games on their just-completed homestand versus solid teams, Blue Jays and Astros. Also, the A's have averaged scoring about 4 runs per game last 9 road games. They take on a Rangers team that has scored an average of 6 runs per game last 6 games but also allow an average of 6 runs per game last 6 games! That is why, regardless of the starting pitchers here, I like the over in this match-up but I will touch on the starting pitchers here. Martinez and Howard both are struggling! Martinez had a 5.63 ERA with AAA Vegas this season and now has a 6.00 ERA with the big club in Oakland. As for Texas starter, Spencer Howard, he is now 1-8 with a 7.44 ERA in his career. The Rangers right-hander is getting hit at a .340 clip this season. Take advantage of the low total because the A's will hit some in this one I am sure but I am also looking for the Rangers high-scoring ways - both runs scored and allowed - to continue their recent trend as 5 of last 6 games have featured plenty of offense. 10* OVER 9 in Texas |
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07-11-22 | Phillies -105 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -105 @ St Louis Cardinals @ 7:15 ET - I like the Phillies here regardless of starting pitchers because all signs point to them bouncing back from the 4-3 loss yesterday at St Louis. The Cardinals are 2-7 last 9 times when off a win. Also, STL had lost 8 of 10 games prior to yesterday's win. Philadelphia is 8-3 last 11 times when off a loss. Overall, the Phils had won 25 of 35 games prior to yesterday's loss. The Phillies bats have been much hotter than the Cards bats. Now will touch on the starting pitching here but, again, that is not the key factor. The Phillies Aaron Nola has an edge in that the Cardinals have not faced him this season. He dominated them last season and also enters this start in top notch form! As for Miles Mikolas, the Cardinals right-hander is also having a strong season but the Phillies have a number of hitters that have enjoyed success against him and they just faced him (and pounded him) in Philly less than 2 weeks ago. Take advantage of a very favorable line and favorable situation here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -105 |
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07-10-22 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees @ 7:08 ET - We were fortunate we got extra innings yesterday to cash the over for us. While certainly grateful for such a break, we will not need such good fortune here as this one appears like perfect set-up for plenty of runs. No matter the pitchers, I am riding the over here. The Yankees have been scoring runs like crazy and the Red Sox are known for scoring well at Fenway Park. New York is 9-4 last 13 games and has scored an average of 6.4 runs per game during this stretch. Boston is averaging 5.8 runs per game last 29 home games. Will mention the pitchers here but, again, is definitely a play here regardless of starting pitchers. Both Taillon and Pivetta have solid numbers on the season but both have been fading of late. Taillon has allowed 14 earned runs in 16 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Pivetta has allowed 11 earned runs on 22 hits in less than 19 innings spanning his last 3 starts. The hot hitting for Yankees continues here no matter the pitcher and, as for the Red Sox sticks, they have scored at least 4 runs in 16 of last 19 games and I am looking for solid double digits from these teams combined in another wild one Sunday evening at Fenway Park. 10* OVER 9 in Boston |
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07-10-22 | Phillies +100 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* Sunday MLB 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +100 @ St Louis Cardinals @ 2:15 ET - I am taking action on pitchers because I love this situation with the Cardinals having lost 8 of 10 games including 4 of 5 to the Phillies. The Cards have scored an average of only 1 run per game last 7 games. The Phils have won 7 of 9 games and have scored an average of 5.4 runs per game in these 9 games. Hotter team with hotter bats so regardless of the pitchers I am riding the road team here. I will now touch on the expected starting pitchers here. Pallante has been a much stronger pitcher out of the bullpen then as a starter. The right-hander is 1-3 with a 4.26 ERA in his 6 starts. As for Philadelphia, Nick Nelson expected to make his first start of the season after working out of the bullpen. Nelson did have plenty of success in the minors as a starter and is facing the right team at the right time for his first start of the season. The Cardinals bats continue to stay quiet while the Phillies roll again on the road. Grab the bargain pick'em price with the road team in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA +100 |
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07-09-22 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees @ 7:15 ET - No matter the pitchers, I am riding the over here. The Yankees have been scoring runs like crazy and the Red Sox are known for scoring well at Fenway Park. New York is 9-3 last 12 games and has scored an average of 6.5 runs per game during this stretch. Boston is averaging 5.8 runs per game last 28 home games. Will mention the pitchers here but, again, is definitely a play here regardless of starting pitchers. The Yankees Montgomery has great numbers this season but the Red Sox have a number of hitters that have enjoyed solid success against the southpaw and they are very familiar with him. As for Boston, the expected starter is Kutter Crawford. The young right-hander has a 6.33 ERA in his 12 games (3 starts) at the MLB level. Crawford has given up 5 hits in 2 innings of work versus the Yankees this season. The hot hitting for Yankees continues here no matter the pitcher as Crawford unlikely to be in this game very long anyway and the Yanks pound the pen. As for the Red Sox sticks, they have scored at least 4 runs in 15 of last 18 games and I am looking for solid double digits from these teams combined in a wild one Saturday evening at Fenway Park. 10* OVER 9.5 in Boston |
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07-09-22 | Astros v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Oakland A's vs Houston Astros @ 4:07 ET - Regardless of starting pitchers here, I look for the Athletics to score some runs here and for the Astros to remain red hot at the plate. So make this bet with action on the pitchers. The Astros have won 10 of 11 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch. The Athletics have average about 4 runs per game last 13 games. So they can get us some runs here at home. I like contrarian plays like this because the Astros are scheduled to start Valdez on the mound and he has great numbers on the season and is coming off a 13-strikeout performance. Note that he did walk 5 in that game, threw over 100 pitches, and so don't be surprised if he labors a bit in this one. Yes he was successful at Oakland earlier this season but they have some hitters who have enjoyed success against him plus he struggled in some starts against the A's just last season. Of course the big key here is the Astros scoring plenty and that should not be a problem. Not only are their bats hot but the expected starter is Logue for Oakland. The southpaw was demoted to the minors back in May. That was a result of struggling with the big club and then things really did not get any better with AAA Vegas as he was hit hard. The reason for the call-up is because Montas must miss a turn in the rotation. That said, plenty of runs from the visiting team likely in this one. 10* OVER 8.5 in Oakland |
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07-08-22 | Phillies -110 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* Friday MLB 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -110 @ St Louis Cardinals @ 8:15 ET - I am taking action on pitchers because I love this situation with the Cardinals off a hard-fought extra-innings win at Atlanta last night. St Louis had lost 6 of 7 games before that including 2 of 3 to the Phillies. The Cards have scored an average of only 1.4 runs per game last 5 games. The Phils have won 5 of 7 games and have scored an average of 6.7 runs per game in these 7 games. Hotter team with hotter bats so regardless of the pitchers I am riding the road team here. I will now touch on the expected starting pitchers here. Wainwright is certainly solid for the Cardinals and has been known, through the years, for being a stronger pitcher when at home. However, the right-hander got hit at a .302 clip in his 5 June starts and then opened up July with a rough effort versus these same Phillies. As for Philadelphia, staff ace Wheeler expected to get the start here. Wheeler is 5-1 with a 1.84 ERA in his 10 night game starts this season. He also has allowed just 1 earned run in 15 innings spanning his last two starts versus the Cardinals. Grab the bargain pick'em price with the road team in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA -110 |
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07-08-22 | Guardians v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians @ 8:10 ET - No matter who the starting pitchers are I like the way the fact both teams have trended toward higher scoring games of late. The Royals off a 5-2 loss at Houston but this was preceded by a stretch of 4 wins in 7 games and Kansas City had scored 7 runs in 4 straight games before being held to just 2 runs by Verlander yesterday. KC is known for hitting well at home through the years. Also, the Guardians enter this one on a tough 3-6 run but they scored 4.8 runs in the 3 victories and allowed 7.8 runs in the 6 losses! We'll see some runs here regardless of who the starting pitchers are but I will mention they are expected to be Civale and Singer. Note that Civale is 2-5 with a 7.04 ERA this season and also has an ugly 9.90 ERA in his 5 road starts this season. Singer was able to get strikeouts but also allowed 6 hits in less than 5 innings in his only July start. In his 5 June starts he had a 5.97 ERA. He has a 4.58 ERA in home starts this season including getting hit hard by Cleveland here earlier this season. Look for the bats to rule the night in this one no matter who is on the mound for either team. 10* OVER 8.5 in Kansas City |
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07-07-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies @ 9:40 ET - I especially want action on this match-up because I like the Diamondbacks lineup to stay hot and I like the Rockies to bounce back in a more hitter-friendly venue after struggling at Dodger Stadium. Due to strength of lineup performance here I want action on pitchers because there is a possibility Keuchel will not get this start. Supposedly his most recent start was a good chance to be his last in the rotation for awhile but the Davies DL situation could have impacted that thinking. I do expect the match-up to be Gomber versus Keuchel but, regardless of the pitchers, note that Arizona has scored an average of 6.4 runs per game last 9 games. In fact, one shutout loss in there but an average of 7.3 runs scored in the other 8 games for the Dbacks. As for the Rockies, they had gone 10-10 last 20 games prior to getting swept by the Dodgers. Also, those 20 games were a good mixture of road and home so it wasn't just home field hitting that led to the Rockies scoring an average of 4.8 runs per game during this 20 game stretch. Again, regardless of pitchers, I want this play on the over but I will mention that Keuchel is 2-6 with an 8.27 ERA this season. Gomber is 4-7 with a 6.53 ERA this season. Also, he has a 7.20 ERA in night games and his home/road splits are nearly identical. In other words, his inflated numbers this season are NOT because of Coors Field. This one, regardless of starting pitchers, gets ugly as these teams both giving up piles of runs this season. 10* OVER 9.5 in Arizona |
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07-07-22 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET - We get a low total because Cole is the scheduled starter for the Yankees and because Winckowski has a low ERA for the Red Sox. First off, I like this play regardless of the starting pitchers. Boston known for hitting well at home and the Yankees the top run-producing in MLB this season and coming off a 16-0 win yesterday. That said, I will still of course touch on the pitchers here and the fact is that Cole, despite all his accolades, does have a recent history of struggling in outings at Boston. The Red Sox have given him some trouble when they face him at Fenway Park and it will be a hitter-friendly night there for this one. As for Boston starter Winckowski, he has faced a lot of lower-tier teams so far in his limited MLB career. Orioles, Cubs, Tigers, A's, Guardians. 4 of 5 have a losing record and, though Cleveland is at .500 on the season, the Guardians one of the weaker hitting teams in terms of run production among teams that do not currently have a losing record on the season. Considering these factors I feel we have excellent line value where with the low posted total and the fact Red Sox have averaged scoring 5 runs per game last 13 home games and Yankees scoring an average of 5 runs per game on the full season and tend to hit well at Fenway Park too. 10* OVER 8.5 in Boston |
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07-06-22 | Blue Jays v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Oakland A's vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 3:37 ET - This play is more about the lineups than the pitchers so select action on pitchers. I know the A's are not known for hitting but they have at least been a little better of late and now have won 5 of 11 games and scored an average of 4 runs per game during this stretch. That said, we may not need much from them here to get this game over the total anyway because I am expecting an offensive explosion from the Blue Jays in this one. Toronto was held to just 3 run in yesterday's loss but did have 10 hits in the game. Also before being held to 1 run in Monday's loss the Jays previously over a 15-game stretch averaged scoring 6 runs per game dating back to June 19th. Will touch on the pitchers here but again this play is action. Kaprielian and is 0-3 with a 6.45 ERA at home this season. He is coming off a good start but that has been a rarity for him as he had an ERA near 6 in both the months of May and June after missing April. Berrios expected to start for the Blue Jays and he has been hit harder on the road than at home throughout his career. That pattern has continued this season and he is coming off a rough June (6.28 ERA) and had a rough May (7.01 ERA). Berrios has 7.92 ERA on the road and a 7.71 ERA in day games this season. Both lineups have big days under the sun today no matter the starting pitchers here. Blue Jays 10 hits yesterday, A's 5 runs, and today both teams put it all together at the plate. Take advantage of the low total here. 10* OVER 8 in Oakland |
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07-05-22 | Blue Jays v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Oakland A's versus Toronto Blue Jays @ 9:40 ET - This play is more about the lineups than the pitchers so select action on pitchers. I know the A's are not known for hitting but they have at least been a little better of late and now have won 4 of 10 games and scored an average of 4 runs per game during this stretch. That said, we may not need much from them here to get this game over the total anyway because I am expecting an offensive explosion from the Blue Jays in this one. Toronto was held to just 1 run in yesterday's loss but previously, though only 7-8 over a 15-game stretch, averaged scoring 6 runs per game dating back to June 19th. The Jays have also scored an average of 6 runs per game the last 4 times they were off a game in which they were held to 2 or less runs scored. Will touch on the pitchers here but again this play is action. Martinez expected to start for the Athletics and has very little MLB experience and does not have overly impressive in numbers in the minors. Kikuchi expected to start for the Blue Jays and he has been hit harder on the road than at home throughout his career. That pattern has continued this season plus the southpaw has historically had some tough outings at Oakland and he is coming off a rough June. Take advantage of the low total here. 10* OVER 8 in Oakland |
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07-04-22 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins @ 8:10 ET - The White Sox hosting a Twins team that has scored an average of 6 runs in last 7 road games. Chicago comes into this game hot at the plate with wins in 4 of last 5 games and scoring an average of 6 runs during this stretch. Regardless of the starting pitchers, you can see why I am looking for plenty of runs here. However, I will mention that the expected starters here will only help our cause in my strong opinion. Johnny Cueto 0-3 with a 5.48 ERA at home this season and 1-3 with a 4.20 ERA in night games. Dylan Bundy had a great April but has struggled ever since. Also, Bundy has a 6.41 ERA in road games and a 5.09 ERA in night games. The White Sox have a number of hitters that have enjoyed success against him. Both bullpens rank in the middle of the pack this season in terms of bullpen ERA. White Sox carry momentum from huge 13-4 win at San Francisco yesterday. Like taking the Twins lineup to bounce back here after disappointing recent stretch as they now bounce back in divisional action in a venue they are very familiar with. 10* OVER 9.5 in Chicago White Sox |
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07-04-22 | Royals v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals @ 4:10 ET - Regardless of pitchers here I like the fact that the Astros have won 15 of 19 games and scored an average of 6 runs scored per victory. As for the Royals, they have won 3 of 4 overall and 7 of last 10 road games. That said, you have a couple of confident lineups stepping into the batters box for this one. Now I will touch on the starting pitchers but, again, this is a play regardless of which pitchers get the start here. Odorizzi expected to get the start for the Astros here and he has great numbers but is coming back from injury and has not been with Houston since May. He last faced Kansas City last season and the Royals hit him hard. They have quite a few hitters who have had success against him. As for the red hot Astros lineup, they will tee off on whoever the Royals send to the mound but it is expected to be Heasley and he is 2-5 with a 5.13 ERA at the MLB level. He comes into this outing having been hammered hard in his last two starts with 11 earned runs allowed in less than 9 innings of work! Heasley has allowed 18 hits in 12.2 innings in his last 3 starts. This one flies over the total! 10* OVER 8.5 in Houston |
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07-03-22 | Cardinals v. Phillies -130 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -130 vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:08 ET - No matter who pitches here, I like the Phillies to bounce back off yesterday's 1-run loss. Philadelphia had won 20 of 28 games and 10 of 14 homes games before the loss yesterday. The Cardinals, as solid as they are, still are just a .500 team on the road and they are 18-21 this season against teams with a winning record. St Louis also is just 7-8 against teams from the NL East this season. The Phillies had won 71% of games against teams from the NL Central this season before yesterday's loss. The Cards had lost 9 of last 15 games before the victory yesterday. St Louis has won B2B games only twice since mid-June. The odds favor a Philly bounce back here regardless of the starting pitchers but now I will touch on them. The fact is the Cardinals Wainwright is notorious, through the years, for being a very strong pitcher in home games but struggling on the road. Overall from 2016 through this season there is a big ERA variance for him. As for Wheeler, he has been fantastic since coming to Philly from the Mets and he has been particularly dominant at home. Wheeler is 4-2 with a 1.85 ERA at home this season and last season had a 2.38 ERA at home and had a 2.29 ERA at home in his first season in Philly. As you can see, Wheeler's 3 seasons in Philadelphia have shown he likes pitching at Citizens Bank Park. Phillies get it done here and respond at home off a tight 1-run loss. They have still been playing well even since the Harper injury. 10* PHILADELPHIA -130 |
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07-03-22 | White Sox v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 13-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
*action on pitchers* MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in San Francisco Giants vs Chicago White Sox @ 4:05 ET - Action on pitchers here as per usual and is especially important here because Giants are just using an opener, John Brebbia, in this one. Then 6'11 Sean Hjelle likely to get the ball after him. Either way, and no matter if White Sox starter Lucas Giolito get the ball here, I like the over based on some team angles. Chicago has seen each of last 3 road games total 8 or less runs but this followed a stretch in which 9 of 14 road games totaled at least 9 runs. During that 14 game stretch the White Sox allowed about 5 runs per game. Chicago has scored an average of about 5.5 runs per game last 22 games. The Giants have lost 3 straight home games but this followed a 7-3 stretch of home games in which SF did average 4.2 runs per game. Certainly not powerhouse numbers but you can see why I am expecting at least a 5-4 type game here. In terms of the starting pitchers, Giolito is finally off a better start but he allowed the leadoff batter to get on in each of the first 4 innings of that start and the damage easily could have been worse. Prior to that outing he allowed 30 runs (27 earned) over 25 and 2/3 innings spanning rough 5-start stretch. Brebbia has not gone more than 2 innings in any start and Hjelle has only 2 games at the MLB level and has unimpressive numbers at the minor league level. After neither of the first two games topped 8 runs I feel there is good reason this total still holding at 8.5 runs! 10* OVER 8.5 in San Francisco |