In the co-main event spotlight at middleweight, Reinier de Ridder emerges as a compelling underdog pick at +210, leveraging his proven grappling dominance against Caio Borralho's more measured approach, especially in a three-round format where endurance and control can swing the odds. De Ridder, a towering 6-foot-4 fighter with a judo base, has secured 13 submissions in his 21 career victories, finishing 86 percent of his wins overall, which highlights his ability to capitalize on ground opportunities, often transitioning seamlessly from clinch work along the fence to back takes or chokes. Borralho, while boasting a solid 17-2 record and a 56 percent striking accuracy, has shown vulnerabilities in prolonged grappling exchanges, as evidenced by his recent unanimous decision loss to Nassourdine Imavov where he absorbed multiple takedowns and struggled to dictate pace on the mat.
Recent betting trends in UFC middleweight bouts favor grapplers like de Ridder in underdog spots, with 42 percent of +200 or higher underdogs pulling off upsets in the division over the past two years when facing opponents reliant on volume striking, particularly in fights where the favorite averages under one takedown per round, a stat that aligns with Borralho's modest 0.36 takedowns per 15 minutes. De Ridder, conversely, lands 0.79 takedowns per round on average, using his length to initiate clinches and disrupt rhythm, as seen in his upset win over former champion Robert Whittaker where he controlled over seven minutes of ground time, frustrating a superior striker through persistent pressure. Both men enter off losses, but de Ridder's defeat to Brendan Allen came via a narrow split decision after he nearly submitted the American in the third round, underscoring his late-fight resilience, whereas Borralho's setback exposed gaps in his defensive wrestling against aggressive chain attempts.
From a stylistic angle, this matchup plays into de Ridder's strengths in the clinch, where he averages 1.5 more significant strikes in close range per fight compared to Borralho, often mixing knees to the body that soften opponents before dragging them down, a tactic that could exploit Borralho's 63 percent striking defense which drops notably when backed against the cage. Betting data shows that in three-round middleweight contests featuring a grappling specialist as the underdog, the fight goes to the ground in 68 percent of cases, leading to 55 percent upset rates when the favorite, like Borralho, has finished fewer than half his wins, relying instead on decisions in seven of his 17 victories. De Ridder's experience as a former double champion in ONE Championship adds another layer, having faced diverse styles across promotions, giving him an edge in adapting to Borralho's karate-influenced footwork, which, while evasive, has been neutralized by persistent forward pressure in past bouts.
Ultimately, the value lies in de Ridder's path to victory through ground control or a potential submission, especially if he can weather early striking volume and turn the tide in rounds two and three, a common trend in underdog wins where grapplers average 4.2 minutes of control time to steal decisions or force finishes. With similar striking output ,both landing around 4.43 significant strikes per minute, the differentiator boils down to de Ridder's superior takedown volume and finishing rate, making him a live bet at +210 in a division where stylistic clashes like this have rewarded sharp underdog backers consistently.