The Lions defence is ranked first overall in fewest offensive points allowed (7.0 per game) and was dominant in last week's 30-6 road win over Winnipeg and here against a Argos team that will concentrate an above average amount of ball control on their run game Im betting the Argos production will be limited,Note:  The Argos enter the contest leading the CFL in rushing, averaging 152 yards per game. With that said Im  betting on a lower scoring affair based on a game that will feature time grinding ground wars. Lions  opponents are averaging just 76 yards rushing against the unit this season.BRITISH COLUMBIA is 6-0 UNDER  off 3 straight division games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 42 ppg scored.TORONTO is 32-14 UNDER  as a home underdog of 3 points or less with a combined average of 45.7 ppg scored. 

Play under 

Both Calgary and Edmonton have proved to have pedestrian offenses so far this season, and for their defenses to be of the top tier variety. 

The Elks have gone under 3 straight times and Calgary 3 out of 4 games. Non of the Edmonton games have seen a combined average above 43 points and only 1 of the Stamps games have eclipsed this offered total. 

Calgary has seen an average of 37.2 ppg scored in their 4 trips to the gridiron and  Edmonton an average of 38.8 combined  ppg scored. 

Under is 3-0-1 in Stampeders last 4 games in Week 5.Under is 6-1 in Stampeders last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 12-4 in Stampeders last 16 games following a ATS win.

Under is 4-0 in Elks last 4 games overall.Under is 5-1 in Elks last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. .Under is 13-4-1 in Elks last 18 road games.Under is 8-3 in Elks last 11 games as a road underdog.Under is 7-3 in Elks last 10 vs. West

EDMONTON is 6-0 UNDER in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.5 ppg scored. 

EDMONTON is 7-0 UNDER  allowing 275 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 35.8 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

Play on the UNDER 

BC played their hearts out last time out, and still found a way to lose, 35-34 to Hamilton, and now will be in a complete letdown scenario against a Winnipeg team that is allowing just 16.7 ppg at home this season. Prior to scoring 34 points last week the Lions scored, 18,6,25,18 and now revert back into that range here which will help keep this combined score on the low side of the total.

BRITISH COLUMBIA is 8-1 UNDER in August games over the last 3 seasons.

CFL Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 52 (WINNIPEG) - off 2 or more consecutive overs, good offensive team - scoring 29 or more points/game are 62-28 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

BC continues to showcase a struggling O line and despite of some changes expected this week Im betting they will have problems generating offence vs a stingy Hamilton D that is allowing an average of 16.2 ppg at home this season.With star linebacker Simoni Lawrence back after a 2 game suspension the Lions are in trouble. I know the Lions D, has also had issues but the Ti Cats offensive cohesiveness has been challenged of late, which will result in a total combined score that remains on the low side of the total.

BRITISH COLUMBIA is 8-0 UNDER  in August games over the last 3 seasons with a . combined average of 47.3 ppg scored.BRITISH COLUMBIA is 18-7 UNDER  after gaining 5 or less yards/play in their previous game with a combined average of 46.2 ppg scored.

Play on the UNDER 

Montreal after a slow start  to their current campaign has held its last three opponents to 58 total points 1,177 total yards. Meanwhile, Ottawa their opponents  have not scored 20 or more points in any game during its currentfour-game losing streak, and last time out had just 13 first downs in the loss to the Stampeders. Im betting on the Red Blacks continuing to struggle offensively and for Montreal D to continue to stand tall, and for this tilt to be a very physical affair that stays under the set total.

These teams have a history of low scoring affairs, with only one of the L/7 meetings seeing more than 52  combined points scored. All three of the most recent meetings here in Montreal have gone under with the average combined score of 48 ppg scored.

OTTAWA is 15-3 UNDER  after allowing 450 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games since 1996 with a combined average of 41.8 ppg scored. OTTAWA is 24-9 UNDER  in road games versus division opponents since 1996 with a combined average of 45.8 ppg scored.

CFL Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 52 (OTTAWA) - after gaining 325 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games are 45-16 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

CFL Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 52 (OTTAWA) - after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after having won 3 out of their last 4 games are 31-9 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

When these teams played on July 20 the Saskatchewan Roughriders came out of that game with a 38-25 win, and Im betting on a offensive similar output here this week in a game I have slated to eclipse the total. I know there has been alot of frustration in BC so far this season, but this is still a talented overall team, that Im betting can be explosive if they cant protect star QB Reilly. With that said Im betting the Lions will provide protection for Quarterback Mike Reilly  tonight even though previous to this game  he’s been sacked a league-high 21 times this season.Head Coach DeVone Claybrooks has confidence in his squad, telling the media earlier this week, “I have all the ingredients for this soup and I’m just trying to season it to get the right taste.” END QUOTE.  It must also be noted that the Riders defence has shown some lapses this season, especially in their two road games and are currently allowing 33.5 ppg . Meanwhile, BC has allowed 33 or more points in 5 of their first 6 games, and despite of me expecting a uptick in offensive production it is their defence that really looks weak. 

Over is 4-1 in Roughriders last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 5-2 in Roughriders last 7 road games.Over is 5-2-1 in Roughriders last 8 Saturday games.

Over is 4-1 in Lions last 5 games following a straight up loss.Over is 4-1 in Lions last 5 vs. West.Over is 4-1 in Lions last 5 games following a ATS loss.Over is 5-2 in Lions last 7 games overall.

Play on the OVER 

Scoring has been an issue for the Toronto offence so far this season, averaging 15 ppg . Meanwhile, Edmonton is proving staunch on D, and are allowing an average of 20.4 ppg.  Even if Toronto has a defensive breakdown, which is not uncommon, and Eskimos explode on them, Im still betting the combined total output by both teams will not eclipse this slightly bloated number. These teams met twice last season, taking part in  16-15 and 20-17 affairs in a home and away series. Im betting on more of the same here this Thursday night. 

Under is 5-1 in Argonauts last 6 games following a straight up loss.

Under is 4-1 in Eskimos last 5 games in July.

Play UNDER 

Efficiency on offence and a little luck have seen Winnipeg go 4-0 SU/ATS so far this season. However it must be noted  that QB Matt Nichols despite of  leading the CFL with 10 passing touchdowns and only one interception, still only has 855 passing yards  and attempted only 98 passes in four games. So unloading here vs a decent RedBlack secondary wont come that easily. Meanwhile, Ottawa is currently struggling mightily , and are 0-2 L/2 as their offense has become stagnant, not scoring a offensive TD in those tilts with QB Davis under center. Even though they  expect to replace injured QB Davis with Jennings the offensive line has shown weakness and Im doubting their attack will suddenly become more efficient. 

My power rankings suggest both teams strengths are based on solid defences and a hard nosed blue collar mind set . This will Im betting be on full display this week in a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the total.

WINNIPEG is 16-4 UNDER  in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1996 with a combined average 45.4 ppg scored.WINNIPEG is 6-0 UNDER  off a home win by 17 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 43.8 ppg going on the board.

OTTAWA is 13-3 UNDER after allowing 450 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games since 1996 with a combined average of 47.7 ppg going on the board.

Under is 9-2 in RedBlacks last 11 games in July.Under is 13-6 in RedBlacks last 19 road games.Under is 21-10 in RedBlacks last 31 games following a ATS loss.

CFL Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (WINNIPEG) - after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 43-16 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

CFL Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (OTTAWA) - after 2 consecutive games where they committed 3 or more turnoversUnder is 4-1 in Blue Bombers last 5 home games are 64-29 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Rain is in the forecast in Calgary, with a predicted 60 percent chance of precipitation .

The Argos own the worst scoring offence, averaging 14.8 points per game this season and I doubt they will eclipse that amount here this week vs a staunch Calgary D. Meanwhile, the Stamps allowed 4 sacks last week, and showed weakness on their offensive line, which Im betting going forward will hinder back up QB Arbuckle, who replaces the injured Bo Levi Jr.   Arkbuckle was sacked 4 times last week. Im expecting the Stamps to be in a letdown mode after their loss to Hamilton last week 30-22 and for them to start slowly  on offense vs a 0-4 Argos side that Im betting they are not motivated to face. With that said, bet on a total combined score that fails to eclipse this total. 

Under is 5-1 in Argonauts last 6 games following a ATS loss.Under is 4-1 in Argonauts last 5 games following a straight up loss.

Under is 4-1 in Stampeders last 5 games in July.Under is 6-2 in Stampeders last 8 games overall.

Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Calgary.

Play on the UNDER 

  Calgary is a defence first team and  has gone below the total in each of its last four road games, including last week’s 37-10 beatdown of the Saskatchewan Roughriders. Against this explosive run and shoot Hamilton offence Im expecting they drag out their offensive plays, and slow the game down, and on defence show their formidable presence by limiting the Ti Cats production in a game that I have pegged to stay on the low side of the total. Note: HAMILTON is 12-2 L/14 UNDER  in home games versus excellent defensive teams - allowing 6.0 or less yards/play with a combined average of 46.4 ppg going on the board. CALGARY is 13-4 UNDER  vs. excellent passing teams averaging 325 or more passing yards/game with a combined average of 42.4 ppg scored.

CFL Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 52 (CALGARY) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 42-15 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. 

CFL Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 52 (HAMILTON) - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 28-7 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

These teams have a recent history of playing low scoring games with 5 of the L/6 staying on the low side of the number, and 3 straight here in Montreal. None of the L/6 meetings have seen more than 46 points scored and the average combined score of those tilts has clicked in at 38.8 ppg and Im expecting another low scoring tilt this week. 

The Alouettes hav gone under in 10 of their previous 13 games away from Montreal, and are 41-17-1 to the under in their past 59 games against divisional rivals. Meanwhile, the the RedBlacks are 4-13 to the UNDER in their previous 17 outings against the East.

OTTAWA is 10-2 UNDER versus mistake prone teams - 88+ penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 46.8 ppg. OTTAWA is 8-1 UNDER in July games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 44.2 ppg going on board. 

Play UNDER 

Getting up for the 0-3 Argos will be difficult for the 3-0 Winnipeg Blue Bombers, and Im betting they're offence  start slow as motivation becomes a key factor. This will effect the the total combined score to the under. 

WINNIPEG is 16-3 UNDER L/19  in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread with the average combined score clicking in at 44.1 ppg.

TORONTO is 22-8 UNDER L/30  versus excellent rushing defenses -allowing 4.25 or less rushing yards/carry with a combined average of 43 ppg scored.

Under is 4-0 in Argonauts last 4 games following a straight up loss.Under is 4-0 in Blue Bombers last 4 home games.Under is 4-1 in Blue Bombers last 5 games overall.

Play UNDER

My projections based on both these teams style of play estimates a total of closer to 48.5 to 49 thus giving us an edge on a under wager here this evening. 

Under is 4-0 in Stampeders last 4 games following a straight up win.Under is 3-0-1 in Roughriders last 4 home games.Under is 3-0-1 in Roughriders last 4 games following a ATS win.Under is 3-0-1 in Roughriders last 4 games following a straight up win.Under is 3-1-1 in Roughriders last 5 games overall.Under is 3-1-1 in Roughriders last 5 vs. West.

CFL Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (SASKATCHEWAN) - after outgaining opp by 90 or more total yards in their previous game against opponent after being outgained by 70 or more total yards 2 consecutive games are 28-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

Im betting the Redblacks offence rusty and off a bye week will have a tough challenge, as Winnipeg has allowed just one offensive touchdown in two games this season. Im also expecting Ottawa to be punting alot today, but are in good hands in that department,

behind Richie Leone who  is averaging 53.6 yards to lead the CFL in punting average, putting him on a record pace thus far. With that said, field position should help the Red Black out defensively as well, in a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the total. 

OTTAWA is 8-1 UNDER  after a playing a game where 63 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons which was the case in a 44-41win vs Sask last time out. 

CFL Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 52 (OTTAWA) - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, in the first month of the season are 26-5 L/22 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Argos allowed 64 points in week one , and now Im betting they will be very focused on  slowing Saskatchewan down, and playing a much better defensive game which wont be hard. Meanwhile, the Argos offence has absolutely no flow, and I expect nothing will change here on Canada Day vs the Saskatchewan Roughriders  who are looking to bounce back  after giving up 44 points in a 44-41 loss to the Ottawa Redblacks on June 20. In 2018, the Riders’ defence gave up 40 points only once — a Week 2, 40-17 loss to Ottawa.

It looks like the linesmakers are not being swayed by the recency of these teams total  points outputs and are sticking to a lower total, and now Im betting their number is not low enough.

TORONTO is 15-4 UNDER L/19 off a blowout loss by 24 points or more to a division rival with a combined average of 44 ppg scored.TORONTO is 28-6 UNDER when playing with 8 days rest with a combined average of 42.7 ppg scored. 

CFL Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 52 (TORONTO) - after gaining 6.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 107-64 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Both these teams are going to have viable defences this season, according to my early  assessments. In the past both these teams have taken part in lower scoring defensive affairs as is evident by the under cashing 5 straight times with the average combined score clicking in at 41 points per game with no score going past the 47 point plateau. Im betting for a conservative rinse and repeat type game here.

BRITISH COLUMBIA is 22-8 UNDER  after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game with a combined average of 45.8 ppg scored.CALGARY is 16-5 UNDER (+10.5 Units) in June games since 1996 with a combined average of 48.5 ppg.

CFL Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 52 (BRITISH COLUMBIA) - after gaining 325 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games are 45-15 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFL Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 52 (CALGARY) - after playing a game at home, when playing on a Saturday are 41-15 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Im betting we have a slightly bloated total here because of the recency bias attached to the Ti Cats 64 point offensive explosion vs the hapless defence of the Toronto Argos. This week I expect the Ti Cats to have a natural regression in their output, while Montreal with a back up QB at the helm (Adams Jr) will struggle to score. With that said Im expecting this total score to fail to eclipse this number. 

HAMILTON is 10-1 UNDER  after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game since 1996.HAMILTON is 16-3 UNDER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 56 since 1996 with the average combined score clicking in at 50.7 ppg.

MONTREAL is 19-4 UNDER in June games since 1996 with a combined average of 44.6 ppg scored. MONTREAL is 6-0 UNDER  in road games off a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41.9 ppg scored.MONTREAL is 12-3 UNDER  as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1996wth a combined average of 42.9 ppg scored. 

CFL Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 52 (HAMILTON) - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, in the first month of the season are 25-5 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Eskimos offence has been rolling, but their defence has been very efficient as well, as was evident when the unit got to BC Lions quarterback Mike Reilly seven times last week. On the other side of the ball,  Winnipeg is well rested and off a bye, and will be ready to have their revamped D, do some work in the trenches this week and cool off the Eskimos attack. My projections make this total a little bloated and with that said, Im recommending we take and under stance here.

EDMONTON is 9-1 L/10 UNDER in road games in June games with the combined average of 45.9 ppg scored. EDMONTON is 27-8 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 56 with a combined average of 49 ppg going on the board.

CFL Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 52 (WINNIPEG) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins, in the first month of the season are 48-22 L/22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER