Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-30-24 | Pacers v. Celtics -7 | 124-129 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
The Celtics have revenge on board for a 133-131 loss they suffered to Indiana on Jan 8th just a couple of days after beating up on the Pacers by a 118-101 count in the same road venue. Now Im betting on a very focused effort by the Celtics here at home where they have won 9 of the L/10 meetings vs the Pacers. Note: G Haliburton expected to return to the court tonight for the Pacers , but I doubt he is ready to play alot of minutes after missing a substantial amount of time. Boston is 21-2 SU in its last 23 games at home. Indiana is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road. NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, on Tuesday nights are 14-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Boston Celtics to cover |
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01-29-24 | Jazz +1 v. Nets | 114-147 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
The Nets are 5-17 SU in their past 22 games since Dec. 14 and 3-12 SU in their last 15 and are fade material . Utah cruised to a 17-point home win over Brooklyn on Dec.18 and have proven to me they matchup well against the Nets. Utah is 12-5 SU L/17 vs Eastern Conference teams and 7-3 L/10 overall. Advantage Jazz. UTAH is 13-4 ATS in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. UTAH is 13-4 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season. UTAH is 12-3 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons. UTAH is 7-0 ATS after 2 consecutive non-conference games this season. UTAH is 14-1 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games this season. Hardy is 16-2 ATS after playing 3 consecutive road games as the coach of UTAH. BROOKLYN is 3-11 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game this season. BROOKLYN is 1-9 ATS in home games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite are 11-44 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (BROOKLYN) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite are 14-45 L/27 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Utah |
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01-29-24 | Suns +3.5 v. Heat | 118-105 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
The Heat have lost 6 straight and are fade material in their current form. I know the Suns have lost 2 straight, but previous this mini skid had won 7 straight and 12 of 15 SU and have been highly competitive for some time now. MIAMI is 17-32 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The visitor has covered 4 of the L/5 and 6 of the L/7 without rest . (Suns lost last night, but did not play hard in a lackluster effort scoring just 98 points at Orlando and should be fresh for this tilt despite of this being a back to back affair ) Play on Suns to cover |
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01-29-24 | Clippers v. Cavs +2 | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 23 h 16 m | Show | |
Clippers are off a dominating DD victory vs the Boston Celtics on the road last time out and Im betting they will be a in letdown situation here tonight vs a Cleveland side on a few days rest . The Cavs are viable bets against above. 600 opposition like the Clippers this season as is evident by cashing a 6 of their L/7 and get the nod again. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) - off an upset win of 15 points or more as a road underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 7-37 L/27 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors. LA CLIPPERS are 6-14 ATS after playing a road game this season. CLEVELAND is 15-7 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season.CLEVELAND is 30-16 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. CLEVELAND is 2-0 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons at home. Play on Cleveland to cover |
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01-28-24 | Thunder v. Pistons UNDER 240 | 104-120 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
My projections place this total at no higher than 236 which gives a full plus possession value edge on this number. DETROIT is 20-8 UNDER versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 220.6 ppg scored. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games at home. OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-1 UNDER off 2 or more consecutive road wins over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220.4 ppg scored. Thunder have gone under in 6 of their L/9. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - a very good team (7 or more PPG diff.) against a struggling team (7 or less PPG diff.) after 42 or more games are 44-14 UNDER 27 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. NBA team (DETROIT) - struggling team - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 47-23 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Detroit's last 19 games when playing Oklahoma City.The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City. Play under |
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01-27-24 | Pelicans v. Bucks OVER 240.5 | 117-141 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
The Pelicans played last night and playing strong transitional defense will now be a problem against a run and gun Milwaukee side Im betting will turn this into a more wide open tilt out of necessity for both sides. Milwaukee is also playing back to back, and the same holds true for them. Note: NO has gone over in 5 straight with no rest vs non-conference opposition like the Bucks and overall have gone over the offered number in a 13 of their L/14 tilts vs Milwaukee . The Bucks are 6-0 OVER L/6 Saturday home games. MILWAUKEEs L/39 games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season with a combined average of 247 ppg scored. The two most recent meeting in this series have eclipsed this totals offering . Milwaukee scored just 100 points last night in a lazy 112-100 loss to the Cavs which will have them primed and ready to bounce back with a big offensive performance which they are very capable of having.MILWAUKEE is 13-4 OVER after 1 or more consecutive unders this season with a combined average of 248.3 ppg scored. Play over |
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01-27-24 | 76ers +5.5 v. Nuggets | 105-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
The 76ers had a 5 game win streak end last time out against the Indiana Pacers , but now Im betting on a bounce back situation i for the Sixers in the Mile High city this afternoon. ( Denver lost to the Sixers in Philadelphia 126-121 on Jan 16th and are just 0-10 ATS L/10 in this series looking for revenge from a single digit defeat) PHILADELPHIA is 14-4 ATS versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons and from a SRS perspective are ranked 3rd in the NBA while the Nuggets are ranked 7th. SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. DENVER is 2-10 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games this season after a 5 game road trip could find it difficult getting acclimated to home cooking again giving us an edge with the visitor. Philly has covered their L/2 visits here in Colorado. Play on Philadelphia 76ers. to cover |
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01-27-24 | Wizards +3 v. Pistons | 118-104 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
Washington has revenge on board for a loss they suffered to Detroit earlier in this campaign, but this time around will have a diff coach patrolling the sidelines for them as they look to ramps a more physical type of defensive game plan.Meanwhile, the Pistons are of just their fifth win of the season on Wednesday, the Charlotte Hornets 113-106 but consistency has not been their calling card this season, and do not have back to back victories this season and a rinse repeat situation is highly probable. Advantage Wizards. WASHINGTON is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.WASHINGTON is 8-0 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game this season.WASHINGTON is 16-4 ATS in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons. WASHINGTON is 8-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons including 4-0 L/4 in Motown. Play on Wizards to cover |
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01-27-24 | Wizards v. Pistons UNDER 241.5 | 118-104 | Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show | |
Early Afternoon play will see these teams most likely starting slow, thus giving us an edge on a lower scoring game than the linesmkaers expect. Also from the wizards perspective they will be implementing a more physical defensive game plan going forward."Defense has to be our calling card," Washington new HC Keefe said. "We have to see improvement on that. That's going to be my first step. And I've always thought that. Basic tenets of the NBA -- I like unselfish basketball; I like spacing; I like making the simple play. But our focus right now, for us, is we've got to see growth defensively." Note: Unseld Jr in his L/42 road games after a non-conference game as the coach of WASHINGTON has seen a combined average of 223.2 ppg scored. (Wash played Utah last time out) DETROIT is 10-1 UNDER in home games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 228.9 ppg scored. WASHINGTON is 13-3 UNDER versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 230.9 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 120 points or more are 52-15 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 221.6 ppg scored. Play on the under |
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01-26-24 | Thunder +2.5 v. Pelicans | 107-83 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City is playing at a high level right now , winning four straight and 14 of their L/17 overall. They enter directly off a 140-114 beatdown vs San Antonio last time time out which is a good omen for us, backing them here tonight as the Thunder are a bankroll expanding 12-0 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons and 7-0 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more this season. Meanwhile, the Pelicans have been inconsistent and have alternated wins and losses while not winning two in row since Jan 10th They did get the victory last time out putting up 154 points vs Utah while allowing 124 points. Note: The Pelicans have allowed 123 or more points in 4 of their L/6 and against this type of explosive offensive side they could be very vulnerable in this spot play considering their current defensive down trend. Oklahoma City in their L/27 as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons have seen an average ppg diff clicking in at +0.2. The series visitor is 6-0 ATS L/6 and Im betting this trend stays intact tonight. OKLAHOMA CITY is 16-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. From a SRS perspective theThunder rank 2nd in the NBA with a 8.26 mark while the Pelicans ranks 7th with a 4.80. When factoring in a 3 point obligatory home court advantage the Thunder should actually be short road favs. SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average NBA Underdogs (OKLAHOMA CITY) - good offensive team - scoring 114+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 135 points or more are 52-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Oklahoma City to cover |
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01-26-24 | Clippers v. Raptors +7.5 | 127-107 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 20 m | Show | |
The Clippers are off a hard fought battle vs the Lakers last time out getting the win . Than they hopped on a plane to travel out east to start a road trip . This Im betting has the Clippers in an emotional and physical letdown state vs a side they maybe over looking. Also with the Celtics on board, for tomorrow night for the Clippers they could easily be caught looking ahead to that tilt leaving them vulnerable in this spot. Note: Clippers are 0-5 ATS L/5 after playing the Lakers. Note: The Clippers beat the Raptors back on Jan 10 126-120 . TORONTO is 18-8 ATS in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons. LA CLIPPERS are 8-21 ATS when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons. NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - poor defensive team - allowing 114+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 120 points or more 2 straight games are 97-54 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Raptors to covers |
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01-25-24 | Nuggets v. Knicks +2.5 | 84-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
NEW YORK is 10-0 ATS in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at +15.2. DENVER is 5-13 ATS after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season.DENVER is 5-13 ATS after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season. NBA Home teams (NEW YORK) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), dominant rebounding team (5.5 or better reb/game) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) are 38-12 L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on NY Knicks to cover |
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01-25-24 | 76ers v. Pacers OVER 236 | 122-134 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
These two teams the Pacers and the 76ers have a history of playing high scoring affairs with the last 5 meetings eclipsing the total with a combined average of 265.6 ppg scored. According to my projections this game once again sets up be a high scoring affair. PHILADELPHIA is 11-2 OVER versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game this season with a combined average of 242.8 ppg scored.PHILADELPHIA is 11-2 OVER versus sub defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or more - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 244.6 ppg scored. The Pacers lost to the Nuggets last time out by a 114-109 count as hosts. INDIANA is 8-0 OVER off a home loss this season with a combined average of 264.4 ppg scored. INDIANA is 14-3 OVER in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 245.3 ppg scored. Play over |
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01-24-24 | Thunder -7 v. Spurs | 140-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show | |
The Spurs have been competitive lately vs what are some over bloated lines that are being offered by the lines-makers as they have now covered 9 of their L/11. However, now as the market has adjusted we now have what Im betting is a viable road fav to back here against the Spurs. I know the Thunder played last night, but they are a well conditioned side and are explosive offensively. The Thunder smashed the the visiting Spurs the last time they met 123-87 back in December, and while it looks like the young men from Texas have improved since then are still over matched here according to my projections. Thunder are 5-0 ATS L/5 in this series and 4-1 ATS with no rest. OKLAHOMA CITY is 42-16 ATS versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game over the last 3 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 25-9 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY in tneir 27 games as favorites this season have seen average ppg diff of +11.5. NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off a road loss by 10 points or more are 10-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, sub par team overall, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 23-49 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Oklahoma City to cover |
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01-23-24 | Lakers v. Clippers -8 | 116-127 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show | |
The gloves are coming off here tonight as the Clippers look for redemption and revenge for a pair of losses to the Lakers earlier this season. Im betting we see the Clippers at their merciless best. Clippers are 9-0 ATS as the home side in this inter City series when taking the court with same-season double revenge-exact. Designated Road underdogs (LA LAKERS) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after scoring 120 points or more 2 straight games are 6-22 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Clippers to cover |
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01-22-24 | Hawks +8.5 v. Kings | 107-122 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
Atlanta had a 3 game win streak come to an abrupt end last time out vs Cleveland by a 116-95 count. Meanwhile, their hosts Sacramento are on a four game losing streak and very far from being in top form, and in their current state according to my projections are being over rated on this line, giving us an edge with the underdog. Atlanta is 2-0 SU/ATS L/2 visits to Sacramento. Sacramento is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home. Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Sacramento. NBA team (ATLANTA) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more are 37-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SACRAMENTO) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a game where both teams scored 120 points or more are 33-66 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. Play on Atlanta to cover |
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01-22-24 | Cavs -1.5 v. Magic | 126-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Orlando is on tired legs after playing instate rivals the Miami Heat last night, winning by a lopsided 105-87 score as they played a strong all out two way game. Now in a letdown state Im betting a revenge minded Cleveland side, looking for redemption for a DD loss here back in December by a 104-94 count to have the edge Note:. The Cavs are on a 7 game win streak, after a DD win vs Atlanta last time out. NBA Favorites (CLEVELAND) - after 3 or more consecutive unders, an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) are 136-80 ATS L/27 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Cleveland to cover |
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01-22-24 | Spurs v. 76ers UNDER 237.5 | 123-133 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
San Antonio is ranked 28th in the NBA in offensive rating, and averaging just 109.4 ppg on the road this season. Philadelphia ranks 2nd in defensive rating, and Im betting they keep the inconsistent offense of the 76ers in control mode here helping us keep our under projection from being eclipsed. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games at home. San Antonio is 3-7-1 O/U L/11 overall. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHILADELPHIA) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 48-26 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 65% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SAN ANTONIO) - after scoring 68 points or more in the first half last game against opponent after a combined score of 190 points or less are 123-70 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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01-21-24 | Nets +11.5 v. Clippers | 114-125 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
On Friday, the Nets put forward one of their best efforts of the campaign, when they earned a 130-112 win over the Los Angeles Lakers two nights after they embarrassed themselves by allowing 11-point lead to dissolve and than losing in the final second on a shot by Anfernee Simons in Portland. Now with a little bit more confidence and knowing they cannot fall asleep at the proverbial wheel vs a top tier side like the Clippers, Im betting we see them at their competitive best. Note: With the Clippers on 4 days rest, Im betting they will show rust and take time to get rolling here which will aid us in getting the cover. Clippers are 1-9 L/10 with 4 days rest . Brooklyn is 9-1 ATS L/10 vs the Clippers. NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (LA CLIPPERS) - off a home win, in January games are 9-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Nets to cover |
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01-20-24 | Thunder v. Wolves -2.5 | 102-97 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
The Minnesota Timberwolves will get their 5th victory in a row when they welcome the Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday night in Minneapolis. The Wolves are off a 118-103 win vs Memphis last time out. MINNESOTA is 8-0 ATS in home games after a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons. It must also be noted that the Wolves have revenge on board for a loss they suffered to the Thunder, back on Dec 26th this season, in a ugly 129-106 beatdown. Minnesota is 5-1 ATS L/6 revenging a 20 point or more same season loss. The Thunder took out the Jazz last time out, which has not been a good omen for this franchise in the past as they have lost 9 straight SU after taking out Utah. That was the Thunders 2nd straight high altitude event, after playing Denver previous to that and now Im betting after those exhausting affairs will be in a letdown spot here vs a redemption minded top tier opponent. NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MINNESOTA) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or more on the season, red hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 50% or more of their shots are 28-5 L/27 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Underdogs (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off a road win against a division rival, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 22-50 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Wolves to cover |
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01-19-24 | Spurs +5 v. Hornets | 120-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
Two bottom feeders the San Antonio Spurs and Charlotte Hornets will meet for the second time in just over a week Friday . In that recent meeting The Spurs smashed the Hornets 135-99 on Jan. 12, Now the lines-makers expect a highly inconsistent side tthat has lost 17 of their L/18 overall including 6 straight to bounce back. While anything is possible I view this as a unlikely scenario according to my projections. It must also be noted that previous to losing and failing to cover their L/2 vs Atlanta and Boston the Spurs had been playing completive ATS hoops covering 6 straight and must not be underestimated in their ability to cash for us tonight.Clifford is 16-31 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of CHARLOTTE. NBA team (CHARLOTTE) - after being beaten by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games are 62-108 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. Charlotte is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against San Antonio. Play on San Antonio to cover |
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01-18-24 | Pacers +7.5 v. Kings | 126-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
Indiana had won 9 of 10 before their current 2 game losing slide in the high altitudes of Utah (Salt Lake City) and Denver . Im betting they bounce back here and are very competitive vs a Sacramento Kings side that my power rankings suggest they match up well and that has lost 3 straight games. INDIANA is 10-1 AT versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season. INDIANA is 15-6 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season.
SACRAMENTO is 2-11 ATS in home games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. Sacramento is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home NBA team (INDIANA) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more are 36-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SACRAMENTO) - after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a blowout loss by 15 points or more 31-75 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Indiana to cover |
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01-18-24 | Bulls -2.5 v. Raptors | 116-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
Toronto played last night in a DD win vs Miami and will now be on tired legs vs a Chicago team in revenge mode for a DD loss they suffered to the Raptors earlier this season. The Raps were playing better hoops back in November when these teams played , and on the flip-side Chicago has turned things up since then . NBA Underdogs (TORONTO) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, a sub par team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are just are 59-113 ATS L/27 seasons, for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors. TORONTO is 9-22 L/31 ATS off a blowout win of 20 points or more as an underdog . CHICAGO is 22-11 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Raptors have lost 9 of the L/13 SU in this series vs the Bulls and are 0-4 ATS without rest. Play on the Chicago Bulls to cover |
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01-17-24 | Mavs +3.5 v. Lakers | 110-127 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
Dallas has won 10 of their L/11 visits to LA to play the Lakers and have won their L/4 trips here vs LAL. Even is Luke Doncic does not play tonight Im betting the The Mavericks who have won two of the three games that Doncic missed with a sprained right ankle, including a 125-120 victory at home Monday over the New Orleans Pelicans, have enough fire power to hang with a inconsistent group of Lakers . It must also be noted that the Lakers just pulled off what in my opinion was an upset last time out vs Oklahoma City . That was LAs only 4th fourth victory and their L/15 games. They will now be in a emotional and physical letdown state after that win making them vulnerable as favs.LA LAKERS are 10-22 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. Play on the Mavs to cover |
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01-17-24 | Bucks v. Cavs UNDER 238 | 95-135 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show | |
When these two teams Cleveland and Milwaukee played in the last week in December they combined in for 230 points in a 119-111 Bucks home victory.Im now projecting similar output here based on current pace and overall data. None of the L/5 meetings in this series has eclipsed this Totals offering. MILWAUKEE is 33-18 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 230.8 ppg scored. CLEVELAND L/91 games versus sub standard defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% plus over the last 2 seasons has seen a combined average of 219.7 ppg scored. CLEVELAND is 31-13 UNDER (+16.7 Units) in home games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 210.1 ppg scored. CLEVELAND L/104 home games over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 216.4 ppg scored. Only 2 of the Cavaliers L/9 games have eclipsed the total. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (CLEVELAND) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 45-10 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (CLEVELAND) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 55-16 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (CLEVELAND) - extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 27-4 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after having won 3 of their last 4 games against opponent after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games are 61-31 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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01-17-24 | Heat -2.5 v. Raptors | 97-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
MIAMI seems to always overlook sub par opponents or the lines-makers just simply consistently over rate them in this spot as they are a bankroll depleting 4-17 ATS when playing against a below 500 team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons .With that said and according to my projections the Heat are weak favs here on the road vs a revenge minded squad that they beat back in early Dec by a 112 -103 count. Note:TORONTO is 19-9 ATS in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Also a couple of days ago the Heat went into Brooklyn and pulled of a hard fought 96-95 win and will now be in a letdown spot after that physical gritty affair. Heat are 0-5 ATS L/5 after playing the Nets. Play on the Raptors to cover |
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01-16-24 | Nuggets v. 76ers -1 | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow thank you for your patience NBA PHILADELPHIA is 26-8 ATS versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots over the last 2 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 20-9 ATS as a favorite this season. NBA team (PHILADELPHIA) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 51-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. Play on Philadelphia to cover |
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01-15-24 | Thunder v. Lakers | 105-112 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
The Lakers enter into Oklahoma City and beat the Thunder 129-120 back in late December and now the Thunder will be primed to get some pay back. OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-1 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season. Also Oklahoma City has great momentum entering this tilt as they have notched victories in nine of its past 11 games and are off a 112-100 win vs the Orlando Magic at home Saturday for the Thunder's fourth straight victory . Meanwhile, the Lakers are playing at the opposite end of the performance spectrum having lost two straight and 6 of their L/8 overall. Advantage Thunder.
NBA team vs the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after allowing 100 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 125 points or more 2 straight games are 25-5 L/27 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Oklahoma City to cover /win |
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01-15-24 | Pacers v. Jazz -7 | 105-132 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
The Pacers played yesterday in a loss to the Nuggets in the Mile High City and now on tired legs in another high altitude game will be vulnerable to another defeat vs a Utah side with revenge on board for a 134-118 beatdown the last time they played . UTAH is 11-1 ATS in home games revenging a loss vs opponent this season with the average ppg diff registering at +9.1. Pacers 3-14 ATS L/17 non conference battles and are fade material in this spot play in Salt Lake City tonight. UTAH is 8-0 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with the average ppg diff clicking at +11. Play on the Jazz to cover |
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01-15-24 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +8 | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
The Warriors have lost seven of 10 and the Grizzlies and are not viable favorites even against a short handed Grizzlies side . GOLDEN STATE is 4-19 ATS in road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. GOLDEN STATE is 6-14 ATS as a favorite this season. GOLDEN STATE is 5-19 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons. NBA Underdogs (MEMPHIS) - after a loss by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more are 77-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. MEMPHIS is 7-0 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons. Play on Memphis to cover |
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01-15-24 | Pelicans -4 v. Mavs | 120-125 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
Luka Doncic (Ankle) - Doubtful [01/10/2024] - Doncic is dealing with an ankle injury and is unlikely to take the court for the Mavericks. This one headline alone has me taking the road short favorite . Even with their super star in the lineup they would have been underdogs according to my projections and were out played on Saturday by the Pelicans 118-108 and rinse and repeat situation is in play tonight. Even if Doncic plays and is less than 100% this makes Dallas vulnerable. NBA Road favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 33-8 ATS L/27 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. NBA Favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - off a road win against a division rival, extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days are 28-6 ATS L/27 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. DALLAS is 2-11 ATS in home games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. Kidd is 4-15 ATS in home games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite as the coach of DALLAS. Play on Pelicans to cover |
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01-14-24 | Suns v. Blazers +11 | 127-116 | Push | 0 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
Portland is in rebuild not doubt about it, and don't seem much better than a new franchise type team . When looking at this set up its interesting to note that this seems like a total mismatch as Blazers were blasted 108-88 at Phoenix a couple of weeks ago and are off a complete alley way beatdown after that via a 139-77 smash down at Oklahoma City where they looked asleep at the proverbial wheel and than another DD beatdown last time out vs Minnesota . However, Im now betting that total embarrassment will have the Blazers ready compete here in redemption mode at home. Also it will be easy for the Suns to overlook tonights bottom feeder, and look for defacto night off. This situation gives credence to us getting value with the underdog and bankroll expansion. PHOENIX is 0-10 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game this season. PHOENIX is 4-15 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season. NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (PHOENIX) - after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a bad team (25 to 40%) are 55-93 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Blazers to cover |
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01-14-24 | Kings v. Bucks OVER 247.5 | 142-143 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Im betting on a high scoring affair tonight, with Milwaukee on tired legs after playing last night and highly likely to not look good in transition on defense. The Bucks inconsistent defensive play vs a redemption minded Kings side off a ugly offensive outing last time out should help dictate the pace. Sacramento ranks 20th in defense, and 9th in the league in offense, while Milwaukee ranks 2nd in offensive output and 24th in defense ppg allowed. The Bucks rank 4th in pace and the Kings 11th. These teams have gone over the total 21 straight times . The Bucks have eclipsed the total 11-0 straight times with the Cavaliers on deck next and are 17-4 OVER as non-conference home chalk of 5 points or more on the opening line and have gone over 4- L/5 with no rest this season. My projections also estimate a 121 or more point offensive output from the Kings . Note:MILWAUKEE is 15-4 OVER when they allow 121 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 254.7 ppg scored. NBA t eams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MILWAUKEE) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more are 212 -60 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
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01-14-24 | Hornets +8.5 v. Heat | 87-104 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
Miami is off a off a hard fought win vs Orlando on Friday night by a 99-96 count and could easily find themselves in a letdown spot. Also the MIAMI has not been a reliable choice for bettors as they are just 3-15 AT as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons. MIAMI is also 16-34 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Advantage Hornets to cover. CHARLOTTE is 33-17 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons. NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 7-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Hornets to cover |
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01-13-24 | Magic +11.5 v. Thunder | 100-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
I know the Magic played last night in a 99-96 loss to instate rivals Miami , covering as 3.5 point dogs, but this is a very well conditioned team that must not be underestimated in their ability to compete on back to back nights. ORLANDO is 9-1 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season. NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off a home win, in January games are 8-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. NBA Road underdogs (ORLANDO) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite are 25-6 ATS L/27 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. Play on Orlando Magic to cover |
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01-12-24 | Magic +3.5 v. Heat | 96-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
Heats Tyler Hero is not 100% and the other two key cogs Lowry and Butler are expected to miss this game, giving the hungry young Magic an advantage getting points tonight in their instate rivalry. Orlando is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Miami. Orlando is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road Miami is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games at home. ORLANDO is 17-5 ATS sub standard defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or worse this season. ORLANDO is 35-20 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after scoring 120 points or more 2 straight games are 26-59 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Orlando to cover |
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01-12-24 | Kings v. 76ers UNDER 242.5 | 93-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
Philadelphia despite of a big output last time out vs Atlanta in a 139-132 loss have been inconsistent offensively as is evident by failing to eclipse the 92 point offensive threshold twice in their L/5 games with 4 of those games remaining on the low side of the offered number with the average combined score clicking in at 224.8 ppg . After that huge output last time out Im betting now on immediate regression by the 76ers offense, vs a Sacramento side, that plays a strong defensive brand of hoops on the road, where they have seen 11 of 17 games fail to eclipse the total with a combined average of 227 ppg have been scored. Advantage under. SACRAMENTO is 22-7 UNDER in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 225.8 ppg scored. SACRAMENTO is 15-3 UNDER as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with 224.4 ppg going on the board. SACRAMENTO is 16-4 UNDER on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 225.8 ppg going on the scoreboard. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHILADELPHIA) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). are 57-15 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHILADELPHIA) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 34-9 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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01-12-24 | Pacers v. Hawks OVER 251.5 | 126-108 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
These teams have consistently played high scoring games in recent meetings .Indiana took a 150-116 decision the last time they met on Jan 5th and previous to that on Nov 12th of 2023 this season they combined for more than 300 points in a 157-152 battle that Indiana also won. Also in their final meeting last season these two take no prisoner offenses and forget about-it defenses took part in a 143-130 Atlanta victory. Im betting they continue to conduct all out attacks on each other with their defensive transitional systems will be put in down mode. Think all star game. Note: The L/4 games here in Atlanta has gone over.ATLANTA is 8-0 OVER ) in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season with a combined average of 255 ppg scored.INDIANA is 21-8 OVER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots this season with a combined average of 254.4 ppg scored. Rinse and repeat over in play. Play over |
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01-11-24 | Knicks v. Mavs +4 | 124-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
Dallas, fell asleep at the proverbial wheel last time out and had a three-game winning streak snapped in a 120-103 defeat at the the hands Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday. Im betting the Mavs had a emotional and physical letdown after taking out the Minnesota Wolves in their previous tilt. Now after that embarrassing effort Im expecting huge bounce back effort here at home tonight vs the red hot NY Knicks. DALLAS is 19-8 ATS after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Kidd is 35-19 ATS off a loss against a division rival in all games he has coached since 1996. DALLAS is 24-11 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons. NBA Road teams (NEW YORK) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 85-140 L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (DALLAS) - after playing 4 consecutive home games are 25-14 SU L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Dallas Mavericks to cover |
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01-10-24 | Spurs v. Pistons +3.5 | 130-108 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show | |
Two evenly matched bottom feeders go head to head tonight in a game that favors the home dog. Detroit ranks 30th in SRS with a -10.65 while , San Antonio ranks 28th with a -10.09 . Factoring in home court advantage of about 4 points for Detroit the wrong side is favored here, thus taking points according to my projections makes for a viable wagering opportunity. SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. SAN ANTONIO is 16-32 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Play on Detroit to cover |
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01-10-24 | Kings -6.5 v. Hornets | 123-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
Charlotte just upset Sacramento last week on the road by a 110-104 count which ended a 11 game losing run. Now Im betting on the Kings to be out looking for revenge and also redemption for a ugly effort at home vs the Pelicans game before last as favs losing by a 133-100 count and then having to make a big run last night to get by Motown . The Kings need to save face should in all probabilities have them playing a killer game with little pity despite of playing last night. SACRAMENTO is 20-8 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.. SACRAMENTO is 17-5 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. SACRAMENTO is 29-14 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7or more. Brown is 11-1 ATS in road games versus terrible defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or worse as the coach of SACRAMENTO. Play on Sacramento Kings to cover |
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01-09-24 | Raptors +5 v. Lakers | 131-132 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
Lakers often injured Davis is expected to miss this game and LeBron James is questionable. After upsetting the clippers last time out I wont be surprised if James sits especially considering they play a non conference visitor that is below .500 on the season. Meanwhile, Toronto has covered 5 of their L/7 overall and 4 of their L/6 on the road and are off a upset win vs Golden State last time out by DDs and according to my projections more than capable of covering this spread here tonight with or without James in the lineup for the Lakers. Note: The Raptors are 7-1 SU/ATS L/7 on the road vs the Lakers. NBA Home favorites (LA LAKERS) - in non-conference games, off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog of 6 or more are 22-49 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover |
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01-09-24 | Grizzlies +9 v. Mavs | 120-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
Memphis has played mostly competitive ball of late winning 7 of their L/11 overall and have cashed 5 of their L/7 road games overall ATS. Im betting the Grizzlies will be motivated here tonight to get revenge for a 120-113 loss at home to the Mavs back in December. MEMPHIS is 44-28 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Meanwhile, the Mavs despite of three straight wins ( 2 vs the Blazers) are a side that according to my projections is being very over rated in this game . After upsetting the Wolves last time out Im betting on them being in a letdown spot and vulnerable to being upset vs a under rated side off two straight road underdog wins vs the Suns and Lakers. DALLAS is 4-13 ATS in home games off a home win over the last 2 seasons. DALLAS is 20-36 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. DALLAS is 17-29 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team, in January games are 19-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Memphis to cover |
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01-09-24 | Blazers v. Knicks -12 | 84-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
NYK is running hot right now having won 4 straight games with 3 of the DD variety. Meanwhile, Portland despite a upset win vs Brooklyn last time out is highly inconsistent. With the Knicks knowing about the Blazers upset of their cross town rivals will be not over looking this opponent and ready to run and gun their way to victory . NYK has already beaten the Blazers by DDs on the road this season, and now a rinse and repeat scenario is on board vs a exhausted side that is playing their 5th straight road game.
Play on the NY Knicks to cover |
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01-08-24 | Jazz v. Bucks UNDER 243.5 | 132-116 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Utah is playing a better brand of competitive ball of late, thanks in part to more consistent defensive efforts and balanced pace. Here tonight against what must be perceived a s a superior side that they cannot run and gun against with success, Im betting on the Jazz being very stringent and transition which will result in a much lower scoring game than the lines-makers are estimating. The Jazz have seen 5 of their L/6 games stay on the low side of the offered total. Meanwhile, Milwaukee has seen 4 of their L/5 stay under the total. The L/2 meetings here in Milwaukee has stayed under the total. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games are 30-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 46-12 UNDER L/5 seasons fof a 79% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - good rebounding team (+3 to +5.5 reb/game) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) are 91-49 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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01-08-24 | Thunder v. Wizards +11.5 | 136-128 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
This is Oklahoma City Thunder 3rd straight road game in 5 days and Im betting they will be on tired legs here vs their underdog opponent the Washington Wizards. The Thunder lost the fiorst two games of this road trip, and previous to that played Denver, Minnesota and Boston and fatigue could be an issue here. Advantage Washington to cover NBA Road teams vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 16-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate. NBA Road favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - a very good team (7 or more PPG differential) against a terrible team (-7 or less PPG differential), after a combined score of 235 points or more are 7-24 ATS L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. Play on Washington to cover |
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01-07-24 | Pistons +16.5 v. Nuggets | 114-131 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
Detroit thanks to their ugly 3-32 SU record are cashing of late brining home the cash to their backers in 5 of their L/6 overall. Thanks to their very bad season huge DD lines are being offered up to the public . Thanks to those market abnormalities their has been value backing the faltering men from Motown. With the Nuggets playing on tired legs with this being their 3rd game in 4 nights, Im betting they wont have the enthusiasm or legs to put forward a big effort vs a side I'm sure their over looking. Advantage Detroit on the line. NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (DENVER) - after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games are 5-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% go against conversion rate for bettors. NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (DETROIT) - after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread, tired team - playing their 4th road game in 7 days are 69-34 ATS L/27 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Detroit to cover |
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01-07-24 | Pelicans +3.5 v. Kings | 133-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
The New Orleans Pelicans suffered their most lopsided home loss in more than two months in their last game and will be primed for a big bounce back effort vs a side they matchup well against vs Kings side that my power rankings suggest the Pelicans match up well against. The Pelicans are a perfect 3-0 against the Kings this season, having won in New Orleans 129-93 on Nov. 20 and 117-112 on Nov. 22, then taking them out in an in-season tournament quarterfinal game Dec. 4 in Sacramento. Rinse and repeat now on board. SACRAMENTO is 7-18 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 21-9 ATS versus sub par defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or worse over the last 2 seasons. NBA Underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - after a loss by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more are 75-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Pelicans to cover |
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01-07-24 | Hawks -1.5 v. Magic | 110-117 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Atlanta was off a ugly 150-116 loss in Indiana to the Pacers on Friday and now after that embarrassment will be ready to play an all out game vs a Orlando side that after a fast start to their season having lost 5 of their L/7 and 11 of their L/16 overall SU. NBA team (ATLANTA) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more are 36-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. ATLANTA is 7-2 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons and have won 4 of the L/4 meetings here in the Magic kingdom. NBA team vs the money line (ATLANTA) - an explosive offensive team (118 PPG or more ) against an avg. offensive team (108-114 PPG), after allowing 68 points or more in the first half last game are 34-9 L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Atlanta to cover |
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01-06-24 | Jazz v. 76ers UNDER 238 | 120-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Philadelphia lost to NYK last time 128- 92 while Utah lost to Boston 126-97. Now Two teams off blowout losses last time out, will be out for redemption here and a more focused effort in transition which Im betting results in a lower scoring affair. Philadelphia in their L/34 games PHILADELPHIA is 28-13 UNDER after a huge blowout loss by 30 or more have seen a combined average of 200.7 ppg scored. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHILADELPHIA) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 45-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. Play under |
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01-05-24 | Wolves v. Rockets +3.5 | 122-95 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
Houston has played their best hoops at home this season winning 14 of 19 games and won at home last time out for their 2nd straight win. HOUSTON is 15-3 ATS after playing a home game this season. Udoka is 12-1 ATS off a home win as the coach of HOUSTON. Meanwhile, the visotrs tonight are on a down mode at the moment after a 117-106 home loss to the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday, their third loss in five games. Current momentum and their top tier level of play at home has me recommending we take the hosts to cover. NBA Home underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - after playing 4 consecutive home games are 24-13 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +1 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. Play on Houston to cover |
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01-03-24 | Clippers v. Suns +3 | 131-122 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
The Suns are shinning bright right now after 4 straight wins and have the ability to pull off the upset vs the red hot LA Clippers tonight in the desert. I know that Kevin Durant is expected this miss this game but Bradly Beal has really stepped up his play and feels confident taking a leading role for the Suns. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (PHOENIX) - vs. division opponents, off 3 or more consecutive home wins are 33-8 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Take the points with the Phoenix Suns to cover |
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01-02-24 | Celtics v. Thunder +4 | 123-127 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
Both these sides enter this game in top form. The Thunder have won four straight games and seven of their last eight, entering Tuesday's matchup with the second-fewest losses in the conference. Oklahoma City is 22-9 this season. Meanwhile, Boston has won 11 of its past 12. So this will be a clash of the titans, but Im betting the home court advantage for the Thunder will be the difference maker in a place where the home side has won the two most recent meetings. BOSTON is 1-10 ATS in road games versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing 15 or more turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 16-3 ATS in home games versus good rebounding teams - out-rebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons.OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-3 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game this season.OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-1 ATS in non-conference games this season. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins are 68-33 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. The Thunder are 4-0 ATS L/4 meeting in this series. Play on Oklahoma City to cover |
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01-01-24 | Pacers v. Bucks -7.5 | 122-113 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
The Bucks are back home after a four-game road trip, most recently defeating the Cavaliers in Cleveland on Friday by a 119-111 final and have won 9 of their L/10 overall SU. Meanwhile, Indiana has won 3 straight, and before that run started they lost 6 of 7 Considering the Bucs play their best hoops at home where they are 16-1 SU while covering 12 of those games it will be an easy decision to back the home side that has one more day rest as compared to the visitors. . Indiana can really light up that score-bard and thats their opus operandi but Milwaukee is equally explosive offensively. These are the top two offensive teams in the NBA in points per game (126.6 and 125, respectively) and offensive rating (122.3 and 121, respectively). the difference maker comes on the defensive end of the floor via efficiency ratings - Indiana ranks 28th (120.9) in defensive while the Bucks rank 16th (116) . Note: Defensive Rating (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA); for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 posessions. MILWAUKEE is 55-42 ATS (as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. NBA Road underdogs (INDIANA) - in a game involving two good three point shooting teams (36.5% or more ), after 2 straight games making 16 or more 3 point shots are 20-46 ATS L/27 seasons for a 70% go against conversion rate for bettors . NBA Road underdogs (INDIANA) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), after 2 straight games making 16 or more 3 point shots are 23-53 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Bucks to cover |
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12-31-23 | Kings v. Grizzlies UNDER 235.5 | 123-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My projections estimate a combined score in the high 220s or very low 230 fange giving us a substantial edge on an under bet cashing according to to those projections. Memphis ranks 10th in the NBA in Defensive rating and have seen a combined average of 216.4 ppg scored in in their 13 games as hosts with 9 of their 13 games at home staying under the total. SACRAMENTO is 33-13 UNDER in road games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game over the last 2 seasons. SACRAMENTO is 14-3 UNDER as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. MEMPHIS is 21-7 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.SACRAMENTO is 15-4 UNDER on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SACRAMENTO) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 44-14 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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12-31-23 | Magic +6 v. Suns | 107-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
The Suns have won two consecutive tilts to move above .500 but have been major underachievers so far this season. Phoenix lost nine of 12 games before the consecutive victories and according to my power rankings are being over rated in this spot play at home. Note: PHOENIX is 4-12 ATS in home games this season. From a matchup perspective the Magic look good here as they are 13-4 ATS versus sub par defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more this season. ORLANDO is 32-18 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile, PHOENIX is 2-16 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season and is 0-7 ATS after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread this season. Advantage Orlando. NBA Home teams (PHOENIX) - bad pressure defensive team - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game, in December games are 16-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. Take the points with the Orlando Magic |
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12-31-23 | Kings -1.5 v. Grizzlies | 123-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
This is the Grizzlies 3rd game in 4 nights and they are coming off an exhausting 4 game road trip that saw them lose their last two tilts. Sacramento is off a road win vs Atlantan last time out and has momentum entering this game . Im betting it takes some time for the Grizzlies to acclimated to home cooking and for the Kings to grab the win. SACRAMENTO is 19-8 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. SACRAMENTO is 23-10 ATS ( when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 3 seasons. SACRAMENTO is 37-21 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons. Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover |
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12-31-23 | Celtics v. Spurs +13.5 | 134-101 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Boston's most recent win was a 120-118 slugfest at home against Toronto. The truth of the matter was the Celtics looked a little tired after playing all out winning hoops for what has been an extended period of time which believe it or not can be exhausting both physically and mentally. With this being the Celtics 3rd game in 4 nights the young Spurs who have been fairly competitive at home could easily stay within this offered underdog number. The Spurs have procured a -8.2 ppf at home this season. BOSTON is 15-27 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons NBA Road favorites of 10 or more points (BOSTON) - extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, in December games are 4-23 L/27 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road favorites (BOSTON) - a very good team (+7 or more PPG differential) against a terrible team (-7 or less PPG differential), after a combined score of 235 points or more are 6-24 ATS L/27 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Spurs to cover |
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12-30-23 | Mavs +4 v. Warriors | 132-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
Dallas super star Doncic has been on a tear of late, recently putting up 39-points and a 50-point explosion Christmas Day in Phoenix in a victory versus the Suns. He was given Thursday off on the second night of a back-to-backs and should be fresh and ready to run and gun tonight against the over rated and inconsistent Golden State. Kidd is 22-10 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game as the coach of DALLAS. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, on Saturday games are 47-69 L/5 seasons for a go against 60% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Mavs to cover |
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12-30-23 | Knicks +3.5 v. Pacers | 126-140 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
NYK has lost 3 of their L/4 games , but this is a resilient well conditioned side that is more than capable of bouncing back. Note: NEW YORK is 15-4 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. This will be the Knicks 3rd game in 4 nights, but they are one of the NBAs best conditioned sides as is evident by HC Thibodeau 26-12 ATS mark in road games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days as the coach of NEW YORK. We all know the Pacers can shoot the lights out both their defense is atrocious. With that said it must be noted that NEW YORK is 8-1 ATS versus terrible defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or more this season.NEW YORK is also 7-0 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders this season.( lost in Orlando 118-107 - going under a total of 226) Meanwhile, Im betting Indiana after two straight underdog wins on the road could easily be in a letdown spot here which seems to not be uncommon for them as they are 5-17 ATS L/22 off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog . INDIANA is also 0-8 ATS after a division game this season. ( Took out division foe Chicago 120-114 last time out) NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after scoring 120 points or more 2 straight games are 25-55 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the NY Knicks to cover |
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12-30-23 | Raptors v. Pistons +5 | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
The Pistons continue their ugly season tonight against the Raptors as they try to grab a victory for the first time in 28 games . Despite of not winning they have been mostly competitive and played a great game vs the Celtics last time out after taking a big lead.Despite playing an grueling heart breaking game in a overtime contest on Thursday, the Pistons will be the fresher team on Saturday vs a Toronto side playing in back to back games. Im not saying the Pistons grab the win here, but taking points with them is a viable option. note: The Pistons have grabbed the cash the L/3 times they have faced the Raptors at home in Motown. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (DETROIT) - after 2 straight losses by 6 points or less against opponent after scoring 115 points or more 2 straight games are 25-12 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate. NBA Home teams (DETROIT) - sub par pressure defensive team - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game, in December games are 15-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Detroit to cover |
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12-29-23 | Thunder +3.5 v. Nuggets | 119-93 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
The Denver Nuggets, would be riding a 10-game winning streak if not for Oklahoma City. The last time these teams played the young never say die Thunder came out on top and their ability to be relentless will be the difference maker tonight. The Thunder rallied to win at Denver on Dec. 16, and now they return there for another matchup against the reigning champions on Friday night. OKLAHOMA CITY is 20-8 ATS in all games this season.OKLAHOMA CITY is 17-7 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. NBA Underdogs (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after scoring 115 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 135 points or more are 41-12 ATS L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. Play on Thunder to cover |
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12-29-23 | Kings +1.5 v. Hawks | 117-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Atlanta enters this home game against Sacramento dumping money for their betting backers at an astounding rate , as is evident by cashing just 2 of their L/15 overall including SU losses in 9 of their L/12 overall. I know Atlanta has won 4 straight meetings in this series but that was than and this is now. Advantage Kings SACRAMENTO is 10-1 ATS in road games versus terrible defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or more over the last 2 seasons ATLANTA is 2-13 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts this season.ATLANTA is 5-20 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season. ATLANTA is 0-7 ATS as a home favorite this season. ATLANTA is 0-9 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season. NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (ATLANTA) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, in December games are 8-32 L/5 seasons for. a 80% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams (ATLANTA) - after allowing 115 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more are 22-55 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Sacramento |
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12-29-23 | Bucks v. Cavs +6.5 | 119-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Cleveland came through in the crunch in a hard-fought battle Wednesday, taking down the Dallas Mavericks on the road 113-110 after needing to come-back from a 20-point deficit. Entering this game with a big scoop of confidence Im betting the Cavs give the visiting Milwaukee Bucks all they can handle. Cleveland has won the L/4 meetings in this series a at home and have an edge taking points at home. CLEVELAND is 28-14 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - poor defensive team - allowing 114+ points/game on the season, after scoring 120 points or more 2 straight games are 31-61 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Cleveland to cover |
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12-28-23 | Pacers v. Bulls +1.5 | 120-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
The Bulls according to my power rankings matchup well here at home vs a Indiana team that pays little attention to D. Note: CHICAGO is 8-1 ATS versus terrible defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or more this season. Right now the Bulls are a ATM machine for their betting backers cashing 11 of their L/13 ATS and are off a underdog victory vs the Atlanta Hawks last time out. That good news considering they are a bankroll expanding CHICAGO is 10-1 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons . HC Donovan is 18-2 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog as the coach of CHICAGO.CHICAGO is also 7-0 ATS after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread this season. The Pacers won last time out against Houston, but that was only their 3rd win in 9 games, and Im betting against them here tonight, mostly because of their lack of defensive discipline, something the Bulls have in spades. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - after 2 or more consecutive unders, average defensive team (108-114 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (118 or more PPG) are 40-8 L/27 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Chicago to cover |
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12-27-23 | Cavs +4.5 v. Mavs | 113-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show | |
Cleveland has played very competitive ball and according to my projections matchup well here vs a Dallas Mavs side that is 15-28 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons and just 10-24 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. Considering Cleveland is well rested after last playing Saturday in a 109-95 win at Chicago, they look to have an edge here taking points vs a side that played Christmas day in a win vs the Suns on the road - behind Doncics 50 point out put. Regression from the Mavs should be expected. NBA Underdogs (CLEVELAND) - off a win against a division rival, in December games are 45-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Cleveland to cover |
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12-26-23 | Hawks v. Bulls -1 | 113-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
The Chicago Bulls have shown alot of consistency and competitive recently winning 8 of their L/12 SU while covering 10 of those games. They did lose to Cleveland late time out but are a resilient bunch that Im betting will bounce back vs a Atlanta side that does not travel particularly well as is evident by their 8-9 away record that has seen them fail to cover 11 of those tilts and 10 of their L/14 overall SU(home/away). With the Hawks expected to be without forward De'Andre Hunter who will undergo a non-surgical procedure and already missing key component Johnson, Trae Young becomes the sole arbiter of the Hawks, and despite his prowess is not a one man team. Advantage Chicago. ATLANTA is 5-16 ATS in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.ATLANTA is 2-12 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season. NBA team (CHICAGO) - off a home loss by 10 points or more, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 73-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - after 2 or more consecutive unders, average defensive team (108-114 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (118 or more PPG) are 39-8 L/27 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Chicago to cover |
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12-25-23 | Celtics -2.5 v. Lakers | 126-115 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show | |
Boston owns the No.1 SRS in the NBA with. a 11.50 mark, while the Lakers are ranked 20th in SRS at -0.13. Even with home court advantage there is a clear cut edge for the top tier Celtics telling me this line is tainted based on Lakers brand name recognition. I know the Lakers grabbed a elite win vs the Thunder last time out on the road, but history does not bode well for the aging Lakers to put out another big time effort in this spot, as HC Ham is 6-19 ATS off a road win as the coach of LA LAKERS. SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average BOSTON is 19-9 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. Boston team vs the money line (LA LAKERS) - after allowing 115 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 125 points or more 2 straight game are 39-10 L/27 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +7.2 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. Play on Celtics to cover |
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12-25-23 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 230.5 | 114-120 | Loss | -110 | 787 h 47 m | Show | |
12-25-23 | Bucks v. Knicks +3.5 | 122-129 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show | |
12-23-23 | Lakers v. Thunder -3 | 129-120 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
After winning the in season tournament the Lakers old legs look like they have cramped up as is evident by losing 5 of their L/6 including four straight. Meanwhile, the Thunder are playing at the opposite end of the performance spectrum, and just off ending the Clippers extended win streak while having won 5 of their L/6 and three straight and will be primed to take down the visitors tonight as they are one of the best conditioned sides in the league. OKLAHOMA CITY is 14-5 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season.OKLAHOMA CITY is 21-6 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.OKLAHOMA CITY is 20-9 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 32-4 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.4 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. Play on the Thunder to cover |
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12-22-23 | Hawks +1.5 v. Heat | 113-122 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
Atlanta rallied late for a 134-127 road win over the Houston Rockets on Wednesday and have momentum and confidence entering this game against inconsistent Miami side. that is 15-33 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is also 18-32 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.Friday's game will be the second of the season between the teams, as the Heat won in Atlanta 117-109 on Nov. 11 and now Im betting on a top tier revenge effort from a Hawks side that grabbed a victory here the last time they visited. Play on Atlanta to cover |
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12-21-23 | Magic v. Bucks UNDER 236.5 | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
Orlando has lost 5 of their L/6 overall and scored 111 points or fewer in the five losses -- less than its season average of 113 per game. Im betting their offensive woes continue tonight against the Bucs , and because their struggling will press hard defensively in transition, this Im betting will equate to a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers expect according to my projections. ORLANDO is 10-1 UNDER in road games off a home loss over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (ORLANDO/ MILWAUKEE) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 54-14 UNDER L/27 seasons for 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Under |
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12-20-23 | Clippers v. Mavs +3.5 | 120-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
The Clippers enter this game in red hot form winning 8 straight games, but Dallas is the type of team that can make like difficult for even the hottest of teams. Los Angeles split two games with Dallas earlier this season, but what stood out to me in those games, is not the Clippers star Leonard, but the Mavs top man Doncic who averaged 37 points in the two games against the Clippers. He had 44 points on 17-of-21 shooting in the Dallas victory and 30 points in the loss only because he shot 1 of 8 form downtown. Im betting bhe will be key tonight in a Mavs cover. LA CLIPPERS are 1-10 ATS after playing a road game this season.(Beat Indiana last time out by a 151-127 count and now Im betting on major regression) NBA Underdogs vs the money line (DALLAS) - after a blowout loss by 15 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more are 38-24 L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. NBA team (DALLAS) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more are 34-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Dallas to cover |
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12-20-23 | Jazz +7 v. Cavs | 116-124 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Utah seems to reserve it best hoops for top tier teams like Cleveland. Note: UTAH is 37-17 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. After a top tier effort in a 125-108 underdog win vs the Brooklyn last time out Im betting that the momentum of that victory has them playing with confidence here tonight in Cleveland. UTAH is 14-1 ATS off an upset win by 15 points or more as a home underdog. Utah is 3-1 L/4 and the play of Sexton who has averaged 25.6 points and 4.0 assists in the past five games has been key the Jazz' recent resurgence. Im betting he will alos be to us getting the cover in this spot play situation. Utah is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Cleveland. Utah is also 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Cleveland. Utah is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - struggling team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game, after scoring 125 points or more are 61-26 ATS L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Utah to cover |
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12-19-23 | Suns v. Blazers UNDER 233 | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
The Suns run the 27th ranked pace in the NBA , and rank 13th in defensive rating efficiency. Meanwhile, the Blazers rank 24th in pace and 29th in offensive scoring. With Portland on tired legs as they play their 3 rd game in 4 nights, Im expecting their pace and aggression to be at less than optimal . Meanwhile the Suns after an extended home stand will come out here a little bit more rested and will be ready to push down with a more aggressive defensive stance, which is their modus operandi - and that should translate to slower tilt as is projected by both teams pace numbers and tendencies. PORTLAND is 31-17 UNDER as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 224.7 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHOENIX) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 43-17 L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 221.9 ppg. Play under |
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12-19-23 | Spurs +16.5 v. Bucks | 119-132 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
There is enough calculated mathematical value here for us to a take a flyer on the points. Make no mistake the Spurs are losing team, but this line value is something that cannot be ignored. NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (MILWAUKEE) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season are 19-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Spurs to cover |
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12-19-23 | Grizzlies +7.5 v. Pelicans | 115-113 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
Memphis gets their star point guard Ja Morant back after a 25-game suspension and Im betting his team feels his energy here tonight in what Im betting will be a cover in the Bayou. Yes I know the Grizz have lost 5 straight including a road loss vs the Thunder last time out. But Jenkins seems to rally his troops in road games off a road loss by 10 points or more as the coach of MEMPHIS as is evident by covering 18 of this L/24 bounce back efforts. NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) - off a win against a division rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 15-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Memphis to cover |
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12-18-23 | Mavs +8 v. Nuggets | 104-130 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
Dallas is not easily intimidated and have won 9 of their L/13 road games this season and must not be underestimated in their ability to compete in this Mile High showdown against the Nuggets. I know Denver beat the Mavs earlier this season , but HC Kidd always seems to make the adjustments needed in avenging rematches as is evident by. a 34-20 ATS record revenging a same season loss vs opponent as the coach of Dallas he average ppg clicking in at +2.2 . DALLAS is 33-16 ATS L/47 in road games after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher . NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - poor defensive team - allowing 114+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 115 points or more 2 straight games are 92-56 ATS L/5 seasons for. a 62% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Dallas to cover |
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12-18-23 | Clippers v. Pacers +3 | 151-127 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
The Pacers after a nice in tournament run are in a bit of funk right now as is evident by three straight losses, all on the road by DDs. Now back home I expect they will be primed to upset the visiting LA Clippers who have procured 7 straight wins but just one of them on the road vs the short handed Utah Jazz. The Clippers have done sub optimal work on the road this season, losing 7 of 11 and have lost their L/2 visits here. Carlisle is 20-7 ATS in home games after a non-conference game as the coach of INDIANA. NBA team (INDIANA) - after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 255 points or more are 36-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Underdogs (INDIANA) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game are 23-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover |
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12-17-23 | Warriors v. Blazers +5.5 | 118-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
Golden State after a strong performance and win last night, look vulnerable in this pot pay on tired legs. Note: The Warriors have not won back to back games in almost 6 weeks and if they get the victory tonight Im betting it wont come easily. GOLDEN STATE is 20-34 ATS as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons. GOLDEN STATE is 4-16 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons. GOLDEN STATE is 2-18 ATS in road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. NBA Favorites vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - after allowing 115 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after allowing 130 points or more are 10-21 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. Play on the Blazers |
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12-17-23 | Magic +9 v. Celtics | 97-114 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
The Celtics beat up on Orlando group by DDs, the day before yesterday for their 13th straight home win.Sunday marks the third meeting of the season between the teams. The Magic beat Boston 113-96 as hosts on Nov. 24 and must not be underestimated in their ability to bounce back here with a competitive performance.ORLANDO is 31-17 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons and have covered 3 of their L/4 visits to Bean-town. Play on Orlando to cover |
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12-16-23 | Thunder +5 v. Nuggets | 118-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Thunder rookie Chet Holmgren,, along with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, are dangerous foes for all comers including the Denver Nuggets. Yes Denver has played well lately, but are 12-24 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Advantage Thunder taking points. OKLAHOMA CITY is 20-6 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.Daigneault is 32-17 ATS in road games off a road loss as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY.Daigneault is 67-43 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY. Play on Oklahoma City Thunder |
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12-16-23 | Pacers +9.5 v. Wolves | 109-127 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
With the offensive fire power that the Pacers have there are is a very good chance here they stay within the offered underdog number. INDIANA is 17-6 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70% or more ) over the last 3 seasons. MINNESOTA is 8-23 ATS L/30 in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game . NBA team vs the money line (INDIANA) - an explosive offensive team (118 or more PPG) against an avg. offensive team (108-114 PPG), after allowing 68 points or more in the first half last game are 30-8 L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Indiana to cover |
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12-16-23 | Pistons +17.5 v. Bucks | 114-146 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
Im sure the Bucks are looking at this like a defacto night off vs the the league worst team. Meanwhile, the Pistons will play with absolutely no pressure as they cant sink any lower than their current form. When the Pistons visited Milwaukee earlier this season they lost by a 120-118 count, but covered as 12.5 underdogs. Rinse and repeat in play here this evening. NBA team (DETROIT) - after a blowout loss by 15 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more are 59-18 ATS L/5 seasons and a perfect 8-0 ATS this season. Play on Detroit to cover |
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12-15-23 | Rockets v. Grizzlies +3.5 | 103-96 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
Houston has been almost unbeatable at home this season but are just 1-8 SU on the road and are being over rated here in the favorites role.I know they have beaten the Grizzlies twice this year both times at home but it must be noted that MEMPHIS is 23-7 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 3 seasons and Im sure knowing how well HC Jenkins can adjust to opponents give me credence in backing a Grizzlies side that has won their L/4 meetings at home in this series. Jenkins 29-16 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less as the coach of MEMPHIS.MEMPHIS is 9-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents over the last 3 seasons. Play on Memphis to cover |
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12-14-23 | Thunder v. Kings -1.5 | 123-128 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
This game is a rematch of a 105-98 Kings home victory in the early stages of the NBA in-season tournament last month. Entering this game the Brooklyn, the Kings were smashed 119-99 on the road against the Los Angeles Clippers on the second night of a back-to-back Tuesday. The Kings took out the Brooklyn Nets in the first game of the consecutive tilts , but looked very tired in the followup. Now rejuvenated and going up against a side they matchup well against Im betting on a rebound performance. SACRAMENTO is 15-4 ATS in home games after 4 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher over the last 3 seasons. Brown is 35-18 ATS vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams - making 39% or more of their attempts in all games he has coached NBA team (SACRAMENTO) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 115 points or more are 31-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Sacramento to cover Sacramento is 4-0 SU L/4 at home in this series and are 7-1 SU L/8 overall meetings. |
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12-14-23 | Jazz +4.5 v. Blazers | 122-114 | Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show | |
Utah played last night but they are well conditioned and offer value vs a weak favorite that has lost 4 straight games. UTAH is 42-23 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. PORTLAND is 0-8 ATS in home games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons NBA Road teams (UTAH) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game are 45-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Utah to cover |
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12-14-23 | Wolves v. Mavs +2 | 119-101 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 24 m | Show | |
12-13-23 | Knicks v. Jazz +6.5 | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
Utah has not had a great season, but they have won their L/6 home games and are never easy to face here in the high altitudes of Salt Lake City. I know the Jazz have struggle of late, but it must be noted that they are Hardy is 15-3 ATS after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread as the coach of UTAH. I know NYK is a quality side, but they have lost 3 of their L/4 games and are in my opinion being over rated here against the Jazz tonight. Note: Jazz top scorer Markkanen has missed the past eight games for Utah, but he's been ramping up his participation in recent practices and is on the verge of a return, possibly even tonight. UTAH is 12-1 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less on the opening line over the last 2 seasons. UTAH is 17-5 ATS as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons. NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - after scoring 120 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 255 points or more are 43-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Jazz to cover |
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12-13-23 | Grizzlies +7.5 v. Rockets | 104-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
The Rockets home-court 11 game winning streak may not be in jeopardy tonight vs the the inconsistent Memphis Grizzlies, but the line in my humble opinion is just a little bit over done. by around 1 possession giving us an edge here to cover according to my projections. The Grizzlies have covered 6 of their L/9 road games, and have won 4 of those games SU with the average ppg diff clicking in at -2.8 in their L/11 away tilts this season. NBA Home teams (HOUSTON) - sub par pressure defensive team - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game, in December games are 8-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - off a win against a division rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 12-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Memphis to cover |
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12-13-23 | Pacers +6.5 v. Bucks | 126-140 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
Watching the Milwaukee Bucks play of late, has me wondering if this team is currently over rated. They honestly look slow and old and their super star the Greek Freak looks a little slow ( knee issues) as does the team overall. With that said, Im betting the run and gun Pacers offer up some issues for the Bucks giving us an edge with the underdog. Note: The Pacers have won and covered 6 of their !0 road games this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at -3.1. From a SRS perspective : Milwaukee ranks 12 with a 2,77 mark, while Indiana ranks 11th with a 2.89 , even with home ciurt advantage factored in we still according to my projections have a one possession edge. NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - good offensive team - scoring 114+ points/game on the season against opponent after a combined score of 255 points or more are 28-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Indiana to cover |
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12-13-23 | Hornets +8.5 v. Heat | 104-115 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
Miami is one of those teams that reserves their best hoops for top tier teams, but against sub par opponents like Charlotte they have a tendency of living up to the lines makers projections as is evident by their 3-15 ATS mark when playing against a below .500 team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons. Add to that MIAMI is 2-15 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons and you get the picture These teams played a close game here a couple od days ago with the Heat pulling off a 2 points win and Im now betting on another hard battle that favors the underdog cashing . Spoelstra is 6-17 ATS off a close win by 3 points or less over a division rival as the coach of MIAMI with the average ppg diff clicking in at just 0.2 in those 23 tilts. NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - off a win against a division rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 12-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. Charlotte to cover |
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12-13-23 | Hawks +2.5 v. Raptors | 128-135 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
Monday marked the Raptors' first regulation defeat in team history when scoring 130 points.All five Toronto starters scored in double figures for the seventh time this season. Im now betting on immediate regression off a demoralizing result. Toronto has now failed to win or cover in four straight. NBA Road underdogs (ATLANTA) - good offensive team - scoring 114+ points/game on the season against opponent after a combined score of 255 points or more are 45-20 ATS L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (TORONTO) - after 4 or more consecutive losses, in December games are 13-54 L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Atlanta Hawks to cover |
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12-12-23 | Cavs +10 v. Celtics | 113-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
Cleveland lost 104-94 to the Orlando Magic Monday, failing to cover as a 2.5-point underdog. The linemakers expect a tired side to play against one of the leagues top teams, the Boston Celtics and thats why we have a nice double digit line to bet into with the viable underdog. Considering the Cavs are one of the better conditioned teams in the NBA Im betting we get the cover in this spot with a talented group on the rise. CLEVELAND is 26-13 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. NBA Home teams (BOSTON) - sub par pressure defensive team - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game, in December games are 7-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Cleveland to cover |
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12-12-23 | Lakers v. Mavs UNDER 236 | 125-127 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
My projections estimate a combined score in the 230s which gives us a one to two possession advantage to the under. The Lakers are currently playing a top tier brand of defensive hoops, as was evident by holding down the run and gun Indiana Pacers to just 109 points to win the in season tournament. Previous to that game the Lakers held the Pelicans to 89 points , and have allowed an average of just 106.3 ppg in their L/5 overall. After their big win last time out, Im also expecting the Lakers to be in a bit of an emotional letdown state, and to be maybe a little less aggressive offensively which adds up to a lower scoring affair against another side that likes to run and gun. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (LAKERS/DALLAS) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 41-7 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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12-12-23 | Lakers v. Mavs +2.5 | 125-127 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show | |
After winning the NBA in season tournament Im betting on some let down regression here effecting the Lakers overall energy levels giving the home side an advantage . Dallas has won 6 of the L/8 meetings in this series straight up. NBA Road teams (LA LAKERS) - after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 12-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Dallas Mavs to cover |
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12-11-23 | Jazz +13 v. Thunder | 120-134 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
The Thunder are coming off a 138-136 overtime win over Golden State on Friday where they forced 29 turnovers, leading to 35 points and even though they are on a couple days rest Im betting they feel a natural letdown from that affair here tonight vs a Jazz side Im sure their over looking . I know the Jazz are without leading scorer Lauri Markkanen , but are capable of being competitive here tonight as they have had sufficient time to adjust to his absence. UTAH is 17-3 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons.Hardy is 41-22 ATS as an underdog as the coach of UTAH. UTAH is 30-17 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. NBA Road underdogs (UTAH) - good rebounding team - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game, first half of the season are 99-55 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Jazz |
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12-09-23 | Pacers v. Lakers UNDER 242.5 | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Los Angeles after smothering the Pelicans last time out ( allowing them just 89 points in. a big time victory) will once again be ready to control an Indiana offense that has been the best in the NBA all season. Indiana leads the league with a 128.4 points-per-game average, but the senior laden Lakers Im betting have a plan to slow down the Pacers, and this will result in a much lower scoring tilt that the linesmakers are expecting. The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 49 games at home (+15.40 Units / 29% ROI) NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (INDIANA) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 43-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for. a 77% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (LA LAKERS) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 30-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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12-08-23 | Kings -1.5 v. Suns | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
The Kings are off a 127-117 loss to the visiting New Orleans Pelicans on Monday during the in-season tournament quarterfinals, while the Suns were beaten by a 106-103 count to the host Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday in another quarterfinal matchup. From a matchup perspective the Kings from my viewpoint stand a better chance of a bounce back, knowing that HC Brown is 17-4 ATS off a home loss as the coach of SACRAMENTO and. 11-2 ATS in road games vs. division opponents as the coach of SACRAMENTO. Meanwhile, ,Vogel is 1-10 ATS versus good shooting teams -like the Kings that convert 46% or better of their shots as the coach of PHOENIX. The Suns have failed to cover in 4 straight. NBA Home teams (PHOENIX) - bad pressure defensive team - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game, in December games are just 5-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road favorites vs. the money line (SACRAMENTO) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 42-12 L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +6.9 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. Kings are 3-1 SU L/4 vs Suns. Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover |