Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-07-20 | 76ers v. Warriors +2.5 | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
With Steph Curry back in the lineup and the newly aquired Andrew Wiggins on the court the Warriors look like a viable option getting points vs a depleted and banged up Sixers lineup. The Warriors are 21-4-1 ATS /22-4 SU at home when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a home game facing an opponent averaging more than 5 blocks per game. PHILADELPHIA is 6-17 ATS L/23 in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season. Sixers are also 10-23 SU on the road this season. The Seventysixers are 3-18 ATS L/21 on the road off a win in which they had at least 15 more shots than their opponent. Play on Golden State to cover |
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03-07-20 | 76ers v. Warriors UNDER 225.5 | 114-118 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
A depleted banged up and exhausted 76ers will play their 4th away game on this west coast road trip in a week and now they will be on tired legs and far from ready to run and gun which Im betting will help make this a lower scoring affair. NBA teams like Philadelphia 0-17 to the UNDER L/17 on the road with less than two days rest off a win as a road dog in which they had at least 15 more shots than their opponent with a combined average of 205.3 ppg scored. The Seventysixers are 0-12-1 UNDER L/13 with less than two days rest off a 10+ win in a road game facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with a combined average of 198 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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03-07-20 | Nuggets v. Cavs OVER 218.5 | 102-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
Denver enters this tilt having gone over in 11 of their L/14 games, while the Cavaliers have gone over in 3 straight, and have seen themselves and their opponents average 223+ ppg when playing as hosts this season as they are here tonight. With Denver finally healthy Im betting they will continue to gear up for play off basketball by getting their offensive flow back, and for Cleveland with nothing to play for to be loose and to run the floor with wreck-less abandon in chase mode, which projects to a higher combined score than this current totals line suggests. Nuggets: 5-0 OVER L5 in non-conference road games while the Cavaliers are : 7-0 OVER L/7 in 2/1 rest situation. Over is 3-0-1 in Nuggets last 4 games following a ATS loss.Over is 8-0 in Nuggets last 8 games as a road favorite.Over is 7-1-1 in Nuggets last 9 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 10-2 in Nuggets last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Over is 9-2 in Nuggets last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Over is 4-1-1 in Nuggets last 6 overall. Over is 5-0 in Cavaliers last 5 Saturday games.Over is 12-3 in Cavaliers last 15 games following a ATS loss.Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games as a home underdog.Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Nuggets are 20-3-1 OVER L/24 as a road favorite with rest off a road game in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers with a combined average of 234.5 ppg going on the score board. The Nuggets are 10-0 OVER L/10 as a road favorite with rest off a win in a road game in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers with a combined average of 224.9 ppg scored. NBA Teams like the Nuggets are 25-4-1 OVER with less than two days rest off a win in a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 15 turnovers per game with the average combined score of those games clicking in at 238.1 ppg. Play OVER |
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03-06-20 | Bucks v. Lakers +1 | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 29 h 32 m | Show | |
Im backing the experience of LeBron James and Anthony Davis over the young raw talent of Giannis. Antetokounmpo and company. The Bucks thanks to their extremely hot start have targets on their backs. Look for the Lakers to be very motivated to send a message to the Bucks that the road to a championship has to come through LA. The Lakers are 15-2 ATS /SU with more than one day of rest off a 10+ win facing an opponent averaging more than 24 assists per game. The Lakers are 8-0 ATS/SU L/8 when the line is within 3 of pick off a win facing an opponent averaging more than 7 refereed turnovers per game. LA LAKERS are 18-6 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. MILWAUKEE is 14-27 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons The Bucks are 4-31-1 ATS /2-34 SU as a dog with rest off a win as a home favorite. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (LA LAKERS) - in a game involving two average free throw shooting teams (72-76%), hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more of their shots are 28-3 SU L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Lakers to cover |
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03-06-20 | Bucks v. Lakers UNDER 227 | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
There is alot of offense in both these teams lineup, but Im expecting this heavy weight battle, to be like a post season tilt and be lower scoring because of both sides expected attention to playing solid defence and to be physical as well. It must be noted the Bucks own the 2nd best ppg D in the NBA, and the No.1 defensive rating. Meanwhile, the Lakers own the 3rd best defensive rating, behind a deliberate disciplined pace that ranks 12th in the league. The Bucks are 0-15-1 UNDER L/16 as a dog with less than two days rest off a win in a home game in which they scored more than 50 points in the paint with a combined average of 191.6 ppg. The Lakers are 4-29 UNDER L/33 when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a win when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent with a combined average of 197.4 ppg going on the board. LA LAKERS are 18-5 UNDER as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.7 ppg scored.LA LAKERS are 15-4 UNDER in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.2 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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03-06-20 | Blazers -2.5 v. Suns | 117-127 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
With Portland MVP Damian Liilard expected to be back in the Blazers lineup tonight I expect them to be juiced up and ready to continue their domination of a inconsistent Suns side that they have beaten 11 of the L/12 times. |
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03-06-20 | Heat v. Pelicans UNDER 235 | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
Miami is quite methodical in their approach to most games, behind the 26th ranked pace, and here against a explosive New Orleans team, that must be respected Im sure HC Spoelstra has a grinding game plan on his agenda. You have to remember this is the same Heat team that just held Milwaukee to 89s points recently. The Heat are 2-16-1 UNDER L/19 when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a win facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with a combined average score of 192 ppg going on the board with none of the games in the sub set going over this total. The Pelicans are 0-8 UNDER L/8 at home with rest when they are off two games in which they had twice as many assists as turnovers with the combined average score clicking in at 219.4 ppg. NBA Teams like the Pelicans are 0-15 UNDER L/15 when the line is within 3 of pick off a game as a dog in which they scored more than 50 points in the paint with a combined average of 211.6 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MIAMI) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 215 points or more are 27-5 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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03-05-20 | Raptors v. Warriors OVER 225.5 | 121-113 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
According to Anthony Slater of The Athletic, Curry has been fully cleared for his return and will play on Thursday and Im betting even with reduced minutes, this will spark the Warriors to try to run with the Raptors who have had not problems despite of an array of injuries of lighting up the score board on a regular basis. The Raptors are 12-0 OVER L/12 as a favorite with a combined average of 236.4 ppg scored. The Raptors are 11-0 OVER L/12 as a 8+ favorite with less than two days rest off a win facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc with a combined average of 239.4 ppg going on the board. NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (TORONTO) - off an road win scoring 110 or more points, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 35-13 OVER L/23 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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03-05-20 | 76ers v. Kings UNDER 222.5 | 125-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
The banged up and battered Philadelphia 76ers will once again be short handed tonight, with three key starters (Joel Embiid (shoulder), Ben Simmons (back) Josh Richardson (concussion).expected to miss this road game vs Sacramento. This Im betting effects their offensive flow of a team that only averages 105.1 ppg on the road this season, and that ranks 6th in ppg allowed overall in the NBA ( 107.2 ppg). Meanwhile, the Sacramento Kings have been paying alot more attention to defence as the season progresses and previous to their last game took part in 5 straight lower scoring affairs that failed to eclipse the total. SACRAMENTO is 13-4 UNDER against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.1 ppg scored . NBA Teams like the Kimnhs are 4-23-1 UNDER L/28 as a home favorite with less than two days rest off a game as a favorite in which they shot over 55% from the field with a combined average of 213.6 ppg scored. The Seventysixers are 0-13-1 UNDER L/15 with rest off a 10+ loss as a road dog facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throw with a combined average of 203.5 ppg going on the board. NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (SACRAMENTO) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (102 PPG or more ) after 42+ games, after scoring 130 points or more are 25-8 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA) - after having lost 3 of their last 4 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a marginal losing team are 28-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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03-05-20 | Clippers +1 v. Rockets | 120-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
The Rockets are 2-1 against the Clippers this season, including a 102-93 home win on Nov. 13 and now Im, betting the Clippers who are on a 6 game win streak to even this series tonight and more importantly cover. LA CLIPPERS are 26-14 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons The Rockets are 0-10 ATS /SU when the line is within 3 of pick with more than one day of rest after a game that was tied 5+ times which was the case in the a loss to the Knicks last time out. NBA Teams like the Rockets are 0-13 ATS /1-12 SU L/13 when the line is within 3 of pick with more than one day of rest off a loss as a road favorite in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers. NBA Teams like the Rockets are 0-12 ATS /SU L/12 with more than one day of rest off a loss in a road game facing an opponent making more than 20 free throws per game. NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 31-62 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate. Play on the LA Clippers to cover |
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03-04-20 | Bulls +3 v. Wolves | 108-115 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
The Timberwolves, have just seven home wins this season so they obviously have no advantage playing as hosts. Chicago defeated Minnesota 117-110 at United Center in the teams' first meeting this season and Im betting they have an edge here getting points. The Timberwolves are 0-16 ATS /1-15 SU at home with less than two days rest when they are off two games in which they allowed 110+ points.The Timberwolves are 1-16/SU/ATS L/17 at home off a game as a dog facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s. Play on Chicago Bulls to cover |
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03-04-20 | Jazz -7.5 v. Knicks | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
The Jazz have been struggling a bit of late, thanks to some lethargic defensive performances. But Im betting they are wide awake tonight vs a NY team that has been working hard since the team made a coaching change and are recently upset the Rockets. So now in desperation mode and not taking their opponents for granted Im betting the more talented team brings home the win and more importantly the cover in this spot. note: UTAH is 10-1 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg doff clicking in at 8.4 ppg. The Jazz are 17-0 ATS /SU as a road favorite with less than two days rest off a win after a game with 8+ lead changes with the average ppg diff clicking in a 11.6 ppg. NBA Teams like the Jazz are 17-2-1 ATS / 19-1 SU as a favorite after a game as a road favorite in which they shot over 50% from the field. Play on Utah to cover |
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03-04-20 | Celtics -2 v. Cavs | 112-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
The Boston Celtics head into Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse on the second leg of a back-to-back Tuesday against the Cleveland Cavaliers, trying to avoid a three-game losing streak. Im betting they get it done vs an extremely inconsistent Cleveland side even without Kemba Walker and Tatum out of the lineup tonight. Note: The Cavaliers lost on Monday to Utah, 126-113 in a hard fought affair where they showed some surprising work ethic . However NBA Teams like the Cavaliers are 1-21-1 ATS /1-22 SU as a dog with rest off a 10+ loss after a game with 8+ lead changes. The Celtics are 13-1 ATS/SU as a road favorite when they are off two games in which they allowed 110+ points. NBA Road favorites vs. the money line (BOSTON) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite of 6 or more, playing on back-to-back days are 30-2 SU L/23 seasons. Play on Boston to cover |
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03-04-20 | Thunder -7.5 v. Pistons | 114-107 | Loss | -116 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
The list of Motowns walking wounded is enormous and puts them a big disadvantage tonight vs a Oklahoma City team that travels well, having cashed at a 21-7 ATS rate in road games this season. I know Oklahoma State played last night, but they are one of the leagues best conditioned teams going 8-1 ATS this season in the 2nd of back to back tilts. [PF] 03/03/2020 - Sekou Doumbouya is upgraded to probable Wednesday vs Oklahoma City ( Leg )[PF] 03/03/2020 - Thon Maker is upgraded to probable Wednesday vs Oklahoma City ( Ankle )[PG] 03/03/2020 - Derrick Rose is out indefinitely ( Ankle )[PG] 03/03/2020 - Bruce Brown is downgraded to doubtful Wednesday vs Oklahoma City ( Knee )[PG] 03/02/2020 - Brandon Knight left last game, is "?" Wednesday vs Oklahoma City ( Knee )[PF] 01/06/2020 - Blake Griffin is out indefinitely ( Knee )[SG] 12/26/2019 - Luke Kennard is out indefinitely ( Knee ) The Thunder are 13-0 ATS/SU as a favorite off a home game when they are off two games in which less than half their field goals were assisted. Play on Oklahoma City Thunder to cover |
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03-03-20 | Raptors -4 v. Suns | 123-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show | |
The Raptors have lost 3 straight games and will now be hungry to get back on a winning track vs a inconsistent Suns team they matchup well against . Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss. Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Raptors are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. The Suns are 0-15 ATS /SU with rest after playing as a home favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 24 assists per game.The Suns are 0-14 ATS/1-13 SU after playing as a home favorite facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws.The Suns are 0-12 ATS/SU after playing as a home favorite facing an opponent averaging less than 10 offensive rebounds. Toronto is 5-0 SU L/5 in this series vs Phoenix. NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (TORONTO) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 27-7 ATS L/23 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. Play on Toronto to cover |
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03-03-20 | Raptors v. Suns UNDER 225.5 | 123-114 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
The Raptors have thrived despite dealing with injuries all season, but the most recent injuries are taking a toll because Ibaka and Gasol are their centers and they have no one to replace their quality and thus their offensive flow is off, and now knowing this they are going to have to step up defensively after allowing a whopping 133 points last time out. Meanwhile, the Suns are also banged up, and playing short handed and off two straight home losses and are also having issues with their flow. The suns last three offensive outputs have been 92, 111, 99 and another below average offensive outing Im betting is on tonights agenda. The above mentioned realities are going to effect this total to the under. PHOENIX is 7-0 UNDER off 2 or more consecutive home losses this season.PHOENIX is 16-2 UNDER off a double digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more The Raptors are 2-20 UNDER L/22 as a favorite off a loss in a road game facing an opponent averaging less than 10 offensive rebounds with a combined average of 200.6 ppg scored.The Raptors are 0-13 OU ( as a favorite with less than two days rest off a game as a dog in which they had a shooting percentage at least 10 lower than their opponent with a combined average of 190.4 ppg scored. NBA Teams like the Suns are 0-13 UNDER L/13 as a dog off a 10+ loss in a home game after a loss in which they led by double digits with a combined average of 206.4 ppg going on the board. The Suns are 1-13 UNDER L/14 as a dog off a loss in a home game in which they scored 15 or more points in the first than the second half with a combined average of 203.7 ppg going on the board. Play UNDER |
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03-03-20 | Nets v. Celtics UNDER 220.5 | 129-120 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
Both these teams are banged up with key regulars out of the lineup . Boston : [PG] 03/02/2020 - Marcus Smart is "probable" Tuesday vs Brooklyn ( Illness )[SF] 03/02/2020 - Jayson Tatum is doubtful Tuesday vs Brooklyn ( Illness )[PG] 03/02/2020 - Kemba Walker is upgraded to probable Tuesday vs Brooklyn ( Knee ) He is still going to see limited time , and will playing less than 100%. Brooklyn: [SG] 03/02/2020 - Garrett Temple is "?" Tuesday vs Boston ( Shoulder )[PG] 02/20/2020 - Kyrie Irving is out for season ( Shoulder )[SF] 10/19/2019 - Kevin Durant is out indefinitely ( Achilles )The Celtics are 1-12 OU as a home favorite with more than one day of rest facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with a combined average of 205.8 ppg scored. The Nets are 3-19-1 UNDER L/23 on the road with more than one day of rest off a loss as a dog facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with a combined average of 198.4 ppg going on the board. Play UNDER |
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03-02-20 | Mavs -3.5 v. Bulls | 107-109 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
The Bulls enter this game agains the Mavericks recording a 2-7 ATS mark in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Meanwhile, the Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and from a matchup metrics perspective are the superior side. Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Chicago and once again get my support here in the chalk role. Mavericks are 15-0-1 ATS /16-0 SU as a road favorite off a win facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +14.4 ppg.The Mavericks are 15-0 ATS/SU as a road favorite with less than two days rest off a game as a favorite in which their opponent shot under 60% from the free throw line with the average pgg diff clicking in at +10.9 ppg. NBA Teams like the Bulls are 1-22-1 ATS /`1-23 SU as a home dog with rest off a loss as a road dog when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent with the average ppg diff registering in at -15.6 ppg. The Bulls are 2-20 ATS /1-21 SU as a home dog with rest facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3 with the average ppg diff clicking in at -14.5 ppg. CHICAGO is 0-10 ATS after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games this season. Play on Dallas to cover |
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03-02-20 | Mavs v. Bulls OVER 224 | 107-109 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Chicago has been picking up their pace here late in the season , with their biggest problem coming in being able to slow down opposing offences, allowing an average of 121.2 ppg. Considering Dallas can light up the board quickly, I expect the Mavs to hit the 117+ point output on their own and for the Bulls to have to open up to keep pace in what Im betting will be a fairly high scoring affair. Note: DALLAS is 31-5 OVER when they score 112 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 235.4 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 17-3 OVER after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 227.1 ppg scored. The Bulls are 17-1-1 OVER L/19 as a dog with rest off a loss when they are off two losses as dogs with a combined average score of 231 ppg going on the board. NBA Teams like the Bulls are 13-0-1 OVER L/14 off a 10+ loss when they lost 3 straight vs current opponent with a combined average score of 237.4 ppg scored. NBA Teams are 16-1 OVER L/17 as a road favorite with no rest off a 10+ win as a road favorite in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers with a combined average of 233.1 ppg scored. Dallas in 21 games on the road where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season has seen a combined average of 229 ppg go on the board. NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (DALLAS) - off an road win scoring 110 or more points, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 34-11 L/23 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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03-02-20 | Grizzlies v. Hawks OVER 239.5 | 127-88 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
Atlanta ranks 29th in ppg allowed and 4th in pace and have averaged 122.2 ppg in offence in their L/16 trips to the hardwood with 12 of those games going over the total.Meanwhile Memphis ranks 7th in pace and 23rd in ppg per allowed and are allowing a whopping 116.6 ppg on the road this season. Based on my composite projections Im betting on the home side Atlanta , eclipsing the 122+ range with Memphis following suit in what is expected to be a high scoring affair by both me and the linesmakers. The Hawks are 11-0 OVER L/11 off a win in a home game facing an opponent averaging more than 5 blocks per game with a combined average of 249.2 ppg scored. ATLANTA is 8-1 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 254.9 ppg scored. ATLANTA is 15-1 OVER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average with a combined average of 244.2 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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03-02-20 | Bucks v. Heat +4 | 89-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
Thanks to the Bucks domination of the NBA this season their lines are slightly bloated and as a result they are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 like the Heat. Back in October the Heat who are 25-4 SU at home this season walked into Milwaukee and handed the Bucks a 131-126 loss, showing me they matchup well vs the Bucks. Now even though mighty Milwaukee wants revenge Im betting if they get it , it does not come easily, making getting points here golden in my humble opinion. The Bucks are 0-13 ATS /SU off a win when the line is at least 12 points higher than their last game.The Bucks are 0-11 ATS SU on the road off a win when the line is at least 12 points higher than their last game. NBA Teams like the Heat are 10-0-1 ATS /11-0 SU as a favorite with rest off a home game in which they had at least 5 turnovers less than their season-to-date average. Play on Miami to cover |
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03-02-20 | Blazers v. Magic UNDER 222.5 | 130-107 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Orlando enters this game on tired legs as this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights. ORLANDO is 11-2 UNDER in home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 203.8 ppg scored. The Magic enter this game vs the Lilliardless Blazers off a 114-113 loss at San Antonio on Saturday night in a game they worked very hard in to try to pull off the upset. ORLANDO is 7-0 UNDER in home games off a road loss this season with the combined score clicking in at 193.5 ppg. The Magic are also 0-18 UNDER L/18 at home off a loss when they lost 3 straight vs current opponent with the average combined score registering at 200.3 ppg. Meanwhile, NBA Teams like the Blazers are 1-15 UNDER L/16 as a road dog with rest off a 10+ loss in which they scored more than 50 points in the paint. Last time out the Blazers D, was smashed as they allowed 129 points in a loss and that in the past has resulted in a toned done more defensive mindset in their followup as is evident by going Under is 7-3 UNDER in their last 10 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. ORLANDO is 17-5 UNDER in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of 204.8 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PORTLAND) - good 3 point shooting team - making 36% or better of their attempts, in March games are 140-89 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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03-01-20 | Wizards v. Warriors OVER 229.5 | 124-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
The Warriors beat the Wizards 125-117 in Washington on Feb. 3, and Im expecting a similar output here today back in Oakland for the rematch. Golden State played last night in. an upset win vs the suns so they will be on tired legs and their defensive capabilities may suffer which gives credence to my projections of a big time run and and gun Washington Wizards offensive output, which will result in the Warriors having to open up themselves with some offensive fireworks or be blown of the court. The Warriors are 13-0 OVER l/13 with no rest off a win facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with a combined average of 247.6 ppg scored. The Warriors are 11-0 OVER with no rest off a win with a combined average of 247.5 ppg. The Wizards own the worst ppg D, in the league, 6th fastest pace and 6th best ppg offfence in the league and have allowed more than 123 ppg on the road this season. The Wizards are 10-0 OVER L/10 on the road off a loss in a road game with a combined average of 152.9 ppg scored. NBA Teams like the Wizards are 31-5-3 OVER L/39 as a favorite with less than two days rest after they had more than 8 times as` many field goal attempts as turnovers. Play OVER |
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03-01-20 | Lakers v. Pelicans +1.5 | 122-114 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
The Lakers have won all three meetings as the teams prepare to finish the season series Sunday night in New Orleans , but today Im betting the Pelicans get some revenge and give the Lakers something to think about. The Lakers' NBA-record streak of 18 consecutive road victories against Western Conference opponents ended last time out, vs Memphis and their vulnerable once again here in this Bayou visit. NBA Teams like Lakers are 0-14-1 ATS/0-15 SU L/15 on the road off a 10+ loss in a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 45 rebounds per game. The Lakers are 0-9 ATS/SU L/9 on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with no rest off a game as a favorite in which they had an assist percentage at least 10 better than their season-to-date average. Play on New Orleans to cover |
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03-01-20 | 76ers v. Clippers OVER 218.5 | 130-136 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
The Clippers crushed the Denver Nuggets 132-103 in a matchup of Western Conference contenders last time out, and now in their current form Im betting they will once again explode offensively vs a Philadelphia team playing without Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. I expect the Clippers to take this chance to really bring the heat here today vs a shorthanded Eastern Conference contender, that beat them 110-103 in Philly back on Feb 11. The Clippers according the my projections will put up in the 117+ point range offensively while the Sixers put +105 ppg on the scoreboard. The Clippers are 11-0 OVER L/12 at home with less than two days rest off a game as a favorite when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent with a combined average of 237.3 ppg. NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (LA CLIPPERS) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 43-18 L/23 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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02-29-20 | Warriors +8.5 v. Suns | 115-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
The Suns are off a 113-111 loss last night to the Detroit Pistons and are now playing on tired legs as they play back to back games and vulnerable to having a inconsistent game which is not unfamiliar territory for them. With Golden States Andrew Wiggins being upgraded to probable Saturday vs Phoenix ( Back ) Im betting the Warriors will be competitive and get us the cover. The Warriors are 11-0 ATS L/11 on the road with less than two days rest off a 10+ loss facing an opponent averaging less than 4 blocks per game. The Suns are 0-14 ATS /2-12 SU as a home favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 24 assists per game , with the 2 wins coming by 1 point and 6 points. Home favorites (PHOENIX) - after allowing 110 points or more against opponent after 2 straight blowout losses by 15 points or more are 6-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Teams like the Warriors are 15-0-1 ATS /13-3 SU on the road with rest off a 10+ loss in which they had 5 or fewer offensive boards. NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (PHOENIX) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, playing on back-to-back days are 9-34 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Golden State to cover |
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02-29-20 | Magic v. Spurs -3.5 | 113-114 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
The Magic took the first meeting of the year from San Antonio, 111-109, on Nov. 15 in Orlando and now have revenge on board. . The Spurs have won 15 of the last 20 meetings overall between the teams and eight of the last 10 at home and SAN ANTONIO is 31-9 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons. The Spurs are 10-0 ATS /SU L/10 as a favorite with more than one day of rest off a loss after out scoring their opponent in the paint by double digits. ORLANDO is 0-9 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots - 2nd half of the season this season. Play on San Antonio to cover |
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02-29-20 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +8.5 | 88-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
The Los Angeles Lakers may not know if LeBron James is available to play Saturday until close to tip-off , but if he does play he will be less than 100% as its never easy playing with a sore groin which makes the Lakers less formidable than usual. Add to that Danny Green is out, and we have a situation where the slumping and desperate Grizzlies look to be competitive. The Grizzlies are 11-0 ATS L/11 at home with no rest off a loss facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws. Lakers Vogel is 9-23 ATS in road games off a win against a division rival in all games he has coached in his career. Play on the Memphis Grizzlies |
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02-28-20 | Cavs v. Pelicans UNDER 237 | 104-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
The public loves to bet Zion and company overs, and the lines-makers are offering them an option to do what they love to do and that is bet the over at what I feel is a slightly bloated number ( 1 possession -3). This reminds me of a saying from the Late Jimmy the Greek, The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself. Which leads me into my contrarian wager here as a I recommend we take the under. It must be noted that the Cavaliers are off a huge win at home last time out as underdogs vs the Sixers and will now Im betting be in a letdown situation. Which brings into play this trend that shows CLEVELAND is 13-3 UNDER off an upset win as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 215.5 ppg going on the scoreboard. Teams like the Cavaliers are 1-18 UNDER L/19 on the road off a 10+ win as a dog in which they had at least 10 more turnovers than their opponent with the average combined score of 183.2 ppg scored.The Cavaliers are also 0-15 UNDER L/15 as a dog off a win as a home dog in which they had 6+ double digit scorers with the average combined score of those tilts ringing at 201.3 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CLEVELAND) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog are 33-12 UNDER UNDER L/23 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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02-28-20 | Mavs v. Heat -2.5 | 118-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
The slumping Miami Heat have lost two straight games to two of the NBA's five-worst teams -- the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday and the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday, but here I am ready to back them tonight at home on a short line. Why you might ask? Well this Heat team is well coached side that has played their bests hoops at home this season as is evident by a 23-4 record as hosts. Also buying low on this type of team because of recency biases makes for what I consider a viable betting opportunity. The Heat are 18-3 ATS /SU with rest off a loss in which they had at least 25% of their points from free throws. MIAMI is 15-7 ATS as a home favorite this season and is 14-3 ATS against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is 15-2 ATS in home games after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Miami is 15-2 L/17 vs Dallas and have won 5 straight overall meetings. Play on Miami to cover |
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02-28-20 | Wolves v. Magic -7.5 | 125-136 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
The Minnesota Timberwolves ended a 5 game losing streak with a huge upset win vs the Miami Heat on the road last time out, but now Im betting they will experience regression to the. mean and a letdown vs a Orlando side that has won 4 of their L/5 and up trending in my power rankings. Note: NBA Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - in non-conference games, off a huge upset win as an underdog of 10 points or more are 3-38 SU L/23 years in their followup game with the average ppg diff clicking in at -11.1 ppg which qualifies under a ATS parameter like we have here in Orlando tonight. ORLANDO is 23-11 ATS versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.4 ppg. The Timberwolves are 0-15 ATS /SU L/15 on the road with less than two days rest off a road game facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls-against per game with the average ppg diff clicking in at -8.4 ppg. The Magic are 13-0 ATS/SU as a favorite with less than two days rest off a road game when the total is at least 15 points more than their season-to-date average with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.5 ppg with 11 of the 13 games by more than 8 ppg. Play on the Orlando Magic to cover |
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02-27-20 | Kings v. Thunder UNDER 223 | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Sacramentos last two road games both wins have featured top tier defensive efforts, holding the Clippers to just 103 points and the Warriors to 94 points. Their successes will have them continue to concentrate on playing top tier D, and this Im betting contributes to a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this slightly bloated number. OKLAHOMA CITY in 20 games when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season have seen a combined average of 215.9 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA CITY is 14-3 UNDER when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season. The Thunder are 0-10 UNDER L/10 with less than two days rest off a win as a road favorite in which they had at least a 10 percent higher BAP than their opponent with a combined average of 195.5 ppg scored. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (>=82 shots/game) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are 37-14 UNDER L/5 seasons with a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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02-26-20 | Celtics v. Jazz UNDER 219 | 114-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
Going from sea level in Portland and than traveling to the high altitudes of Utah, in the 2nd part of a back and back road games, makes for a situation where I expect the Celtics to be a little slower than usual and for a Jazz team in desperate need of shoring up a bleeding defence to make a concerted effort at turning this into a physical affair that I project to stay on the low side of the total. BOSTON is 15-5 UNDER in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 212.3 ppg scored. UTAH is 21-6 UNDER off a double digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more with a combined average of 195.1 ppg going on the board. ( Phoenix lit up the Jazz at home 131-111) The Jazz are 0-14-2 UNDER l/16 as a home favorite with rest off a loss after a game in which their opponents points per field goal attempt was better than 1.5 with a combined average 188.4 ppg scored. The Celtics are 0-10 UNDER L/10 as a dog after they had assists on less than 45 percent of their field goals with a combined average of 183.1 ppg going on the board. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BOSTON) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record ARE 55-19 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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02-26-20 | Wolves v. Heat OVER 228.5 | 129-126 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
Minnesota has a one way modus operandi and that is full throttle take no prisoners basketball that pays very little attention to defence ranking 7th in pace in the league and 27th in pgg allowed and a respectable 13th in offensive ppg output . Meanwhile, Miami plays a different style of hoops, and a slower pace, but will have to adjust a bit to the Wolves speedy style as has been the case over the last 5 games, as the Heat have combined with their opponents to average 231.4 ppg and have gone over in 4 straight tilts. The Heat overall have averaged 116.9 ppg at home this season, and Im betting on that number being eclipsed here and for the Wolves to chase and get themselves into the +110 range offensively, which will result in a over. The Timberwolves are 15-0 OVER L/`15 as a dog off a loss as a dog in which they had assists on less than 45 percent of their field goals with the 3 most recent games in this subset dating back to last season seeing 243,240, and 256 combined ppg going on the board. NBA team (MINNESOTA) - after going over the total by more than 12 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 135-63 OVER L/23 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Teams like the Wolves are 23-4 OVER L/27 as a 8+ dog facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with a combined average of 237.6 ppg scored. NBA Teams like the Heat are 22-1 OVER L/23 as a favorite with rest off a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 7 refereed turnovers per game with a combined average of 238.5 ppg scored. NBA The Heat are 11-0 OVER L/11 as a home 8+ favorite with less than two days rest off a game as a favorite facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with a combined average score of 231.3 ppg going on the board. Play OVER |
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02-25-20 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Lakers | 109-118 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
According to my projections there is value backing Zion and company when he is in the lineup for New Orleans as they are posting a +23.2 Net Rating which matches up well vs the Lakers unit. After the Lakers hard back and forth affair against Boston last time out that saw them win 114-112 im betting their are in letdown situation. The Pelicans are 21-3 ATS L/24 off a game as a favorite in which they had less than 15% of their points from free throws.The Pelicans are 10-0 ATS L/10 as a 8+ dog facing an opponent averaging more than 62 ppg from 2-point range. The Lakers are 1-16 ATS L/17 at home after playing as a home favorite facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5. The Lakers are 2-17-1 ATS L/19 at home after a game as a home favorite in which they scored more than 50 points in the paintThe Lakers are 4-21 ATS L/15 at home off a win when they won 4 straight vs current opponent The Lakers are 0-9 ATS L/9 as a home favorite off a home game facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end. Play on the Pelicans to cover |
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02-25-20 | Thunder -6.5 v. Bulls | 124-122 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City has played their best hoops on the road this season and are currently on a 8 game road win streak, and tonight against Bulls team that just snapped a 8 game losing streak, Im betting they once again have an advantage. The Bulls are 0-11 ATS /SU L/11 at home off a win in a home game and are 0-12 ATS/SU at home off a win in a home game facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc with the average ppg diff clicking in at -17.9 ppg. The Bulls are 0-11 ATS /SU L/11 at home with rest off a home game facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5 with the average ppg diff registering at -13.9 ppg. The Thunder are 16-0-1 ATS /15-2 SU on the road with less than two days rest. The Thunder are 16-0 ATS /14-2 SU on the road with less than two days rest facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end. The Thunder are 16-1-1 ATS /15-3 SU on the road. Play on Oklahoma City to cover |
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02-24-20 | Grizzlies v. Clippers -9.5 | 97-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
Kawhi Leonard said the Los Angeles Clippers weren't ready to play Saturday before losing at home to the Sacramento Kings. He doesn't expect that to be the case Monday when the Clippers host the Memphis Grizzlies. With the Grizzlies expected to be without power forward Jaren Jackson Jr., who sustained a sprained left knee late in the second quarter against the Lakers last time out, Im betting the Grizzlies wont have enough offensive to hand with a talented hungry redemption minded team with revenge on board for loss to Memphis earlier this season . LA CLIPPERS are 8-1 ATS in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at 14.3 ppg. Play on LA Clippers to cover |
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02-24-20 | Suns v. Jazz -7.5 | 131-111 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
The Suns are off a hard fought win vs the Bulls in Chicago last time out and now go against a hungry Utah Jazz team that has lost two straight including one as home fav vs the Rockets by a 120-110 count . It must be noted that the Suns have not won back to back games since back in mid January, and Im betting they lose again tonight and more importantly fail to cover vs a very motivated opponent. ( Utah has won 10 straight at home in this series with the 4 most recent battles dating back to 2018 have all seen DD victories with the last 3 coming by 33, 28, 28 points respectively. Rinse and repeat tonight. The Jazz are 12-0 ATS /SU L/12 with rest off a 10+ loss as a home favorite facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end winning by an average of 15 ppg. NBA Teams like the Jazz are 18-1 ATS /SU L/19 as a favorite with rest off a 10+ loss in which they had fewer than 15 foul with the average ppg diff clicking in at +18 ppg. The Jazz are 10-0 ATS /SU L/10 as a favorite with rest off a 10+ loss in a home game facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5 with the average ppg diff registering at +13.1 ppg. The Suns are 0-11 ATS /SU off a game as a favorite facing an opponent averaging less than 10 offensive rebounds with the average ppg diff clicking in at -15.3 ppg. Play on Utah to cover |
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02-24-20 | Magic v. Nets -3 | 115-113 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
The Brooklyn Nets and Orlando Magic are trending in opposite directions of late.Brooklyn has won 8 of their L/12 since losing five in a row to top tier teams from Jan. 14-23.The Nets have six victories vs below.500 teams during the 12 game subset with seven wins coming by double digits margins while allowing just 105.4 points. From a SRS standpoint: Orlando owns a -1.37 SRS ranking 19th in the league while Brooklyns number clicks in at -0.58 ranking 15th in the league. With an obligatory home court advantage thrown in im estimating this number should be closer to -4, thus giving us value with the Nets. Note:Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. Brooklyn lost the first meeting in this series this season back in January on the road and should be motivated to get redemption tonight. The Magic are 2-18 ATS /3-17 SU on the road with more than one day of rest off a home game facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with 10 straight losses all coming by more than this number.The Magic are 1-13-1 ATS /1-14 SU as a dog with rest off a loss facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc with every loss in the subset coming by at least 5 ppg or more. ORLANDO is 0-8 ATS after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots this season. NBA Teams like the Nets are 16-0 ATS /SU L/16 at home with rest off a win in a road game facing an opponent averaging less than 12 turnovers per game. The Nets are 10-2 in the past 12 home meetings with Orlando. BROOKLYN is 31-16 ATS against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons NBA Road teams (ORLANDO) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%) are 8-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a for 80% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Brooklyn to cover |
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02-24-20 | Bucks v. Wizards OVER 240.5 | 137-134 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
This is obviously a high total and there was a time when I would be looking for value on the under. But now in the new NBA the league facilitates entertaining back and forth affairs which their fan base obviously embraces. In recent meetings these teams have taken part in take no prisoners run and gun offensive slugfests with the average combined score of the L/3 meetings clicking in at 268 ppg. Milwaukee runs the No.1 ranked pace and the most explosive offence in the league , while the Wizards, rank 6th in ppg output and 6th in pace, but rank last in the league in defence ppg allowed and defensive efficiency. The x factor here is the Bucks top tier D, but it must be noted that WASHINGTON is 8-0 OVER versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 43% or better over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score of those games clicking in at a whopping 266 points per game and overall Brooks is 10-0 OVER versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 43% or better as the coach of WASHINGTON with a combined average score of 253.5 ppg going on the score board. The Wizards are 18-1 OVER L/19 as a dog off a loss in a road game facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with the average combined score clicking in at 250.1 ppg. Play OVER |
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02-23-20 | Wizards v. Bulls | 117-126 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
The tanking Chicago Bulls bring an ugly eight-game losing streak when they host the Washington Wizards on Sunday evening. With this being the Bulls 2nd game in two nights, im betting their tired legs wont provide them with a desperation win vs a wizards side that is up trending in power rankings. CHICAGO is 4-17 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. CHICAGO is 2-12 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Bulls are 0-12-1 ATS /0-13 SU L/13 at home off a home game after allowing 50-plus points in the paint. NBA Teams like the Bulls are 2-17 ATS/SU L/19 with less than two days rest off a game as a dog in which their turnovers increased by at least 10 from the game before. The Wizards are 11-1 ATS/10-2 L/12 when the line is within 3 of pick after they scored 15 or more points in the first than the second half. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 129-82 ATS L/23 seasons for a long term 61% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Wizards to cover |
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02-23-20 | Spurs v. Thunder -5 | 103-131 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
The thunder are playing with a great deal of confidence as is evident by their 34-22 record and have momentum as they are fresh off dismantling of the Denver Nuggets in crunch time for a 113-101 statement win on Friday. The reason Im willing to lay the 5 points here with the Thunder is their ability in close games to finish off their opponents as this metric will explain: Thunder won the league's -best plus-27.3 net rating in a league-high 38 games that feature a score within five points in the last five minutes of regulation. OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-1 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season. The Spurs are 1-12 ATS/SU as a dog with rest after a game as a road dog in which their opponent had at least a 10 percent higher BAP. The Spurs are 0-8 ATS L/8 off a win in a road game when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss at home. The Thunder are 12-0 ATS/SU at home off a win as a home favorite when they are off two games in which they had double-digit steals are NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival are 37-4 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at 10.9 ppg. Play on Oklahoma City to cover |
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02-23-20 | Wolves +13.5 v. Nuggets | 116-128 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
While the Timberwolves are struggling with 16 losses in 17 games, they enter this tilt having played Denver tough in the first three meetings. They lost by two points in overtime and fell by seven points and nine points and Im betting on them hanging tough again and getting is the cover. Note: Denver lost their first game after the break at Denver, in a hard fought affair, and may still be feeling the letdown emotional effects of that tilt which brings into play this trend...The Nuggets are 0-10 ATS L/10 at home after a game with 8+ lead changes. Timberwolves are 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings in Denver. NBA Road underdogs of 10 or more points (MINNESOTA) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 49-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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02-23-20 | Pacers +6 v. Raptors | 81-127 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
The Raptors squeaked out a 119-118 home victory on Feb. 5 and had a 115-106 road win over the Pacers two nights later. Both came during Toronto's franchise-best 15-game winning streak. Tonight Im betting on the Pacers hanging tough again, and getting us the cover. Pacers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Raptors are 0-11 ATS off a 10+ win in which their opponent had at least a 10 percent higher BAP. Play on Indiana to cover |
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02-23-20 | Celtics v. Lakers UNDER 225.5 | 112-114 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
Two top tier teams one from the West and one from the East do battle this afternoon in LA as the Lakers host the Celtics .Its an early start and Im leaning on an under here in what should be a chippy post season type affair. The Lakers rank 3rd in defensive efficiency in the league 6th in ppg per game allowed behind the 12th ranked pace, while the Celtics ranked 3rd in ppg allowed and operate fairly slowly behind the 17th rank pace. The time of the game, the metrics and also my projections estimate the total should be closer to 221 thus giving us more than 1 possession of value on this number. Under is 21-8 in Celtics last 29 games as an underdog.Under is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 games as a road underdog.Under is 21-9 in Celtics last 30 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Under is 41-18 in Lakers last 59 games as a home favorite. BOSTON is 15-4 UNDER in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 211.7 ppg going on the board. The Lakers are 0-12-1 UNDER L/12 off a 10+ win in a home game when they are playing a non-conference game with two conference games before after with a combined average score of 183.2 ppg scored. The Celtics are 0-14-1 UNDER L/15 with less than two days rest off a win in a road game when they are off two games in which they had more than 25 fouls with a combined average of 186.3 ppg scored.
Play on the UNDER |
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02-22-20 | 76ers v. Bucks -8.5 | 98-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
The Sixers bring a five-game road skid into Saturday nights tilt vs tbhe NBA-best Milwaukee Bucks. I know the Sixers continue to get respect, but they are highly inconsistent, and a team as I myself describe a clunky. Add to that the 76ers seem to have brought unnecessary attention to themselves with narcissistic comments by Embid who at the the All-Star Game, was quoted as saying. QUOTE just proving I'm here, I belong, and being the best player in the world, I just intend to keep coming out every single night and just play hard and trying to get wins and just go out and try to win a championship," Embiid told reporters after the game. END QUOTE: What he said , should have the Bucks talking among themselves, and now Im betting they will be out to send a message to the young self described king of the court tonight . Teams like the Bucks are 24-0 SU/ 23-1 ATS while covering by more than 12.6 ppg as a home 8+ favorite with less than two days rest off a road game in which they scored more than 50 points in the paint. The Bucks are q perfect 26-0 / 23-3 AT L/26 as a 8+ favorite with less than two days rest facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws. The Seventysixers are 0-12 ATS /2-10 SU on the road with rest off a win after a win in which they trailed by double digits with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at -8.6 ppg. Play on Milwaukee to cover |
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02-22-20 | Suns -1 v. Bulls | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
I was appalled how badly the Bulls played at home last night vs a Charlotte team that they should have handled. There is some deep seeded issues that must be dealt with in the off season with the Bulls. I know playing without without Lauri Markkanen, Denzel Valentine, Kris Dunn, Otto Porter Jr. and Wendell Carter Jr. are hurting them but the rest of the team should have been able to pick up the slack. Now Im taking this chance to fade the Bulls on a short line vs a Suns team that has shown alot more fight, and off a decent effort vs the defending champion Toronto Raptors last night. The Suns are 20-2 ATS /21-1 SU as a road favorite off a road game in which their opponent shot over 50% from the field. CHICAGO is 3-12 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.CHICAGO is 4-16 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. The Bulls are 1-19 ATS /SU as a home dog with rest facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s.The Bulls are 0-11-1 ATS /0-12 SU at home off a home game after allowing 50-plus points in the paint. NBA Teams like the Bulls are 0-11 ATS/SU L/11 at home when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a loss as a home favorite after allowing 50-plus points in the paint. Play on Phoenix to cover |
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02-22-20 | Kings v. Clippers OVER 230 | 112-103 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
The Kings are coming off a 129-125 victory over the visiting Memphis Grizzlies on Thursday and Im betting they come right at the Clippers here this afternoon in a tilt I have projected to go over the set total. Note: The Kings blew out the Clippers 124-103 in their last meeting in Los Angeles on Jan. 30. The Clippers are 13-1 OVER with rest off a loss as a road dog facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with a combined average of 247.1 ppg scored. NBATeams like the Clippers are 19-2 OVER as a home favorite off a loss in a road game facing an opponent making less than 16 free throws per game with a combined average of 235.8 ppg scored. The Kings are 9-0-1 OVER L/10 as a dog facing an opponent averaging more than 45 rebounds per game with a combined average score of 236.8 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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02-21-20 | Celtics v. Wolves +6.5 | 127-117 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
The new look Wolves will send out the down town trio D’Angelo Russell, Omari Spellman and Malik Beasley to the court today in a home game that will see this team ready to turn a corner. With Boston taking on the LA Lakers this weekend , Im betting they may not be fully focused here in this spot, giving us value with the. home dog. NBA Teams like the Celtics are 1-15 ATS /SU on the road with rest off a win after scoring 15+ points more than Vegas projected.The Celtics are 1-11 ATS/SU on the road off a win as a favorite in which they had overtime. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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02-21-20 | Celtics v. Wolves OVER 226 | 127-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
The new look Wolves will send out the down town trio D’Angelo Russell, Omari Spellman and Malik Beasley to the court today in a home game and Im betting they will force a capable Celtics team into a old fashion run and gun affair that eclipses this total. Both are fresh and rested and both should will be prepared to make this into a track meet. MINNESOTA is 24-9 OVER in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 234.2 ppg scored. The Timberwolves are 17-0 OVER L/17 after they had 3 or fewer double digit scorers with every game in the subset eclipsing this total -average combined score in those tilts rings in at 236.5 ppg. NBA Teams like the Wolves are 19-2 OVER L/21 with rest off a loss as a home favorite in which they has at least twice as many assists as turnovers with a. combined average score of 236 ppg going on the board. Play OVER |
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02-21-20 | Suns +7.5 v. Raptors | 101-118 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 15 m | Show | |
DeAndre Ayton is upgraded to probable Friday vs Toronto ( Ankle ) which will be a big boost for the Suns in this game vs the defending champs. I know the Suns have been highly inconsistent this season, but with Toronto expected to be without Norman Powell and Marc Gasol their short handed and vulnerable. The Suns are 15-0 ATS L/15 on the road with rest off a game as a favorite when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent. The Raptors are 0-12 ATS L/12 off a loss as a road favorite after being outscored in the paint by double digit Phoenix is 12-0 ATS L/12 games in this series. Suns HC Williams is 104-69 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points in all games he has coached since 1996. Play on Phoenix to cover |
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02-21-20 | Pacers v. Knicks UNDER 212.5 | 106-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
Indiana's successes and failures on predicated on their defensive play, as they rank only 21st in the NBA in offensive output, and 9th in ppg allowed, behind a slower grinding type of play that has them ranked 25th in pace. Meanwhile, NYK ranks 28 in offensive output and 21st in pace . Considering both sides modus operandi my projections make this total one possession off the mark, which has me leaning strongly to the under. The Pacers are 0-11 UNDER L/11 on the road with more than one day of rest off a game as a favorite in which they scored 15 or more points in the first than the second half with a combined average of 182.2 ppg scored. The Knicks are 3-18-1 UNDER L/22 as a home dog off a home game facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws with a combined average of 206.6 ppg scored. INDIANA is 21-6 UNDER as a road favorite of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 209.2 ppg scored. NEW YORK is 10-2 UNDER as a home underdog of 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 209. 6 ppg scored. NBA Teams like the Knicks are 0-12-1 UNDER L/13 with more than one day of rest off a 10+ loss as a home favorite after a game with 8+ lead changes with a combined average of 209 ppg going on the scoreboard. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (INDIANA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 44-16 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (NEW YORK) - poor team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after allowing 105 points or more 5 straight games are 51-19 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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02-21-20 | Cavs v. Wizards OVER 235.5 | 113-108 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
Washington ranks 6th in the NBA in offensive ppg output, and rank dead last at 30th in the league in defense , behind the 6th ranked pace. Its obvious when the Wizards go on the court, you better be prepared to run and score non stop or be blown off the court. With the Wizards fresh after the all star break you can bet they will come out of the gates , like their hairs on fire and will force Cleveland to reciprocate with offensive fireworks of their own. NBA Teams like the Cavaliers are 11-0-1 OVER L/12 as a road dog off a 10+ win as a dog in which they shot over 50% from the field with a combined average of 243.3 ppg scored. NBA Teams like the Wizards are 14-0-1 OVER L/15 off a 10+ win in a road game facing an opponent averaging more than 15 turnovers per game with a combined average of 242.4 ppg scored. The Wizards are 18-1 OVER at home with more than one day of rest facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with a combined average of 238.2 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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02-20-20 | Hornets v. Bulls -5 | 103-93 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 55 m | Show | |
I know Chicago lost 6 straight entering the All Star break, but thats makes them all the more hungry, and now Im betting they are more than capable of taking out a inconsistent Charlotte side that has lost 20 of their 30 road games this season, with average overall diff clicking in at -8.9 ppg. The Hornets are 0-12 ATS /SU L/12 on the road with rest off a game as a dog after out scoring their opponent in the paint by double digits. The Hornets are 1-16 ATS /0-17 SU as a road dog off a road game facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls-against per game. NBA Favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent are 33-0 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.2 ppg which qualifies under the perimeters of this side wager. NBA favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CHICAGO) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%), after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ less free throws than opponent are 28-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Chicago |
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02-20-20 | Hornets v. Bulls UNDER 211 | 103-93 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
Chicago was playing alot of offensive back and forth affairs before the all star break, but Charlotte does not have the fire power to take part in that type of affair ranking 30th in the league in offence, and will look to slow this game down behind the 30th ranked pace in the NBA . This Im betting has a direct effect on this total to the under. The Bulls are 0-17-1 UNDER L/18 as a favorite off a 10+ loss in a road game when they are off two losses as dogs with a combined average of 184.2 ppg scored with non of the tilts in the subset going over this total. The Hornets are 1-13 UNDER L/14 on the road after a game as a road dog in which they scored 15 or more points in the second than the first half with a combined average of 192.9 ppg .NBA Teams like the Hornets are 0-13 UNDER L/13 with more than two days of rest off a win as a dog facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s with the combined average score of 208 ppg going on the scoreboard. NBA team (CHARLOTTE) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, second half of the season are 32-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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02-20-20 | Bucks v. Pistons UNDER 224.5 | 126-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
analysis to follow- thank you for your patience |
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02-20-20 | Bucks v. Pistons +13.5 | 126-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
The Milwaukee Bucks key players Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton took part in the all star game and Im betting will be a bit of an emotional letdown situation on the road today vs a stumbling Motown side Im sure their overlooking. The Bucks have had a propensity to play down to their opponents this season, and with Philadelphia on board for this weekend in a key eastern conference battle, they could easily just go through the motions here, while Detroit will look at this as a big time redemption game , and an opportunity to get some pride and momentum back after a nasty first half of the season. Casey is 18-6 ATS in home games after 4 or more consecutive losses in all games he has coached . NBA Teams like the Pistons are 19-3-1 ATS at home with more than two days of rest off a loss as a road dog in which they scored fewer than 10 fast break points. NBA Home underdogs of 10 or more points (DETROIT) - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 27-7 ATS L/23 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Detroit to cover |
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02-16-20 | All Star LeBron -6 v. All Star Giannis | 157-155 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 3 m | Show | |
Because of rule changes -my projections estimate that LeBron and company will have the edge entering the 4th quarter. Note: The fourth quarter will be untimed and the teams will play to a final target score. The final target score is determined by taking the team that is leading after three quarters and adding 24 points ( in honor of Kobe Bryant.) The team that is behind need to score 29 points before the leading team scored 24 points in order to win the All-Star Game. I know its alot to take in, but my mathematical projections estimate LeBron gets it done. Play on LEBRON to cover |
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02-16-20 | All Star LeBron v. All Star Giannis OVER 303.5 | 157-155 | Win | 100 | 25 h 19 m | Show | |
After watching the World vs USA rising stars tilt on Friday night when 282 total points went on the board, it became obvious to me that this is also going to be another no defence affair that easily flies over the total, thanks in part the 24 added points the Kobe Bryant output gives to this total score. The NBA wants their all star game to be as entertaining as possible so they are going facilitate Play OVER |
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02-14-20 | World v. USA -4 | 131-151 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show | |
Team USA is packed full of explosive star power, with guys like Ja Morant/Jaren Jackson / Trae Young/ Miles Bridges and Devonte Graham out to prove to the world on a international stage how over powering they are. With team Worlds super star Luka Doncic banged up they just don't seem as formidable and Im betting they get stomped on tonight. Play on Team USA to cover |
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02-13-20 | Thunder v. Pelicans -2 | 123-118 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
This is the final game for both teams before the All-Star Break. The Thunder have lost two straight after a 114-106 home loss to San Antonio on Tuesday. Oklahoma City had won nine of 10 games before that and now finally look tired after all out grueling run that saw them play strong start to finish basketball. The way the Thunder have played is hard on a team, and tonight Im betting it will come back to bite them here in the bayou vs Zion Williamson and company. It must be noted that Pelicans were getting clobbered by what was a red hot Portland side in their last tilt , before embarking on a comeback. Note: The Pelicans are 10-0 ATS/SU L/10 as a favorite after a win in which they trailed by 15. The Pelicans are 10-0 ATS /SU as a favorite with less than two days rest off a win in which they had at least a 10 percent higher BAP than their opponent. New Orleans to cover |
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02-12-20 | Heat v. Jazz UNDER 217.5 | 101-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
This is the fifth game in the Heats Western road trip and they are now on tired legs and wont have their usual jump here tonight in the high altitude of Utah which Im betting directly effects their offensive output tonight which favors an under wager . The Heat are 0-12 UNDER L/12 as a road dog with rest off a 10+ win in a road game facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with a combined average of 189.5 ppg scored.The Heat are 0-11-1 UNDER L/12 as a dog off a win facing an opponent that has a season-to-date average points per FGA of better than 1.3 with a combined average of 205.1 ppg scored. The Jazz are 0-18 UNDER L/18 as a home favorite off a road game in which they had fewer than 4 times as many field goal attempts as turnovers with a combined average of 189.7 ppg scored. Snyder in his L/49 in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of UTAH has seen a combined average of 203.3 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (UTAH) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, second half of the season are 30-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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02-12-20 | Blazers v. Grizzlies -4.5 | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
The Grizzlies enter with seven victories in their past nine games, including a 106-99 road win over the Washington Wizards on Sunday, while Portland is off a loss last night in New Orleans in a tilt where they look exhausted in the 2nd half losing by a DDs. Now on back to back games and their 5th game in 8 days, Im betting the Blazers are a big disadvantage vs a Grizzlies side on 3 days rest after playing 3 straight on the road. MEMPHIS is 10-1 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games this season. MEMPHIS is 8-0 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season. The Grizzlies are 18-2 ATS/SU as a home favorite with more than one day of rest facing an opponent averaging more than 45 rebounds per game.The Grizzlies are 11-0 ATS /SU as a favorite with more than one day of rest off a road game facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end. The Trailblazers are 2-19 ATS/SU with no rest off a loss as a road dog after allowing 50-plus points in the paint. Play on Memphis to cover |
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02-12-20 | Raptors v. Nets +4 | 91-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
The Raptors are on a 15 game win streak, with one of those wins coming against Brooklyn by just one point. Some teams no matter what the metrics suggest matchup well against what might seem like superior opponents and Brooklyn is one of those teams when considering this matchup vs the Raptors. With that said, Im taking the points here with the home team. BROOKLYN is 14-3 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Teams like the Raptors are 0-11 ATS /1-10 SU off a 10+ win in which they shot over 55% from the field with the one SU win in the subset coming by just 1 points. NBA teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (TORONTO) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games are 8-33 SU L/23 seasons for a 81% go against conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TORONTO) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games are 5-24 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Brooklyn to cover |
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02-12-20 | Wizards +2.5 v. Knicks | 114-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
The media has suddenly fell in love with how well the Knicks are playing recently, but Washington is also up-trending winning four of their L/6 overall and matchup well vs the Knicks and get my support here tonight .I know the Wizards played last night but they are on the of the leagues better conditioned teams, as is evident by a 17-4 ATS record when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons. Wizards are 12-0 ATS /SU on the road when the line is within 3 of pick off a win as a home favorite in which they shot over 50% from the field. The Knicks are 0-15-1 ATS /0-16 SU off a loss after scoring 15+ points more than Vegas projected. Play on Washington to cover |
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02-12-20 | Pistons +8 v. Magic | 112-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Detroit has really looked bad of late, but Im betting after some embarrassing efforts will be able to muster some energy and here and keep this game competitive vs a Orlando side that might be getting just a bit to much respect from linesmakers. Look for Center John Henson and point guard Brandon Knight, the players acquired from the Cavaliers in the Drummond deal, to get things rolling in the right direction before the all star break. The Magic are 1-15 ATS/SU with less than two days rest off a win as a favorite facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls per game.The Magic are 0-11 ATS /2-9 SU at home with less than two days rest off a win in a home game after a game with 8+ lead changes. NBA Home teams (ORLANDO) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by more than 30 points in their previous game are 4-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Detroit Pistons to cover |
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02-11-20 | Celtics v. Rockets UNDER 232 | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
Boston enters this game fully healthy and will be primed to play top tier defence here behind the 17th ranked pace and 2nd ranked ppg D in the league. Meanwhile, Houston since changing over to a predominant small ball lineup have shown mixed results with the most troubling aspect seeing difficulties from beyond the arc which Im betting will effect output here tonight in a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the total. The Rockets are 9-35-5 UNDER when the line is within 3 of pick with rest with a combine average of 217.3 ppg scored. The Celtics are 0-11-1 UNDER l/12 on the road with rest off a win in which they had at least a 10 percent higher BAP than their opponent with a a combined average of 200.9 ppg scored. BOSTON is 24-9 UNDER in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 209.2 ppg. HOUSTON is 23-10 UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70% or better) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.7 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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02-11-20 | Blazers v. Pelicans -3 | 117-138 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Portland Super star Lillard has scored 30 or more points in 25 games this season, but he had one of his worst shooting games the last time Portland faced New Orleans. He shot just 6 of 21 from the field and missed all 10 of his 3-pointers while scoring just 18 points in the visiting Pelicans' 102-94 win Dec. 23 and Im betting his bauyou voodoo will come out to haunt him here again tonight as Zion Williamson and company outshine the visitors. Trail Blazers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Trail Blazers are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings in New Orleans. The Trailblazers are 4-22-1 ATS/ 3-23 SU as a road dog off a win as a home favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 15 turnovers per game.The Trailblazers are 2-17 ATS /SU as a road dog off a win as a home favorite in which their opponent had at least a 10 percent higher BAP. Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. Pelicans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest. Pelicans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Play on New Orleans to cover |
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02-10-20 | Heat v. Warriors +6 | 113-101 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
With Andrew Wiggins now in the fold after the Warriors pulled off a trade with the Timberwolves, Im betting on more offensive continuity and more output going forward. Meanwhile, Miami after playing all out top tier hoops for much of the first part of the season, have now suddenly hit a speed bump, and are slumping as they embark on their 4th road game in 6 days in a back to back situation after playing last night against Portland in a loss where they look exhausted and were out worked on the boards. Advantage: Golden State OLDEN STATE is 8-1 ATS after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more this season. MIAMI is 0-9 ATS in road games versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game this season. Teams like the Heat are 1-15 ATS /SU on the road off a loss as a road dog facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5 The Warriors are 13-1 ATS L/14 as a dog with rest off a home game when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent. NBA team (MIAMI) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against a poor shooting team (41.5-43.5%), good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO's) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 TO's) 22-42 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Golden State to cover |
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02-10-20 | Kings v. Bucks UNDER 228 | 111-123 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
We all know the Bucks go at full throttle most nights behind the no1 pace and no 1 offence in the league, but their D continues to get better and is now ranked 7th in ppg allowed and ranked 1st in defensive rating. Note: DRating - Defensive Rating for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 possessions. Because of slightly bloated lines the Bucks have seen 6 of their L/9 stay under the total, and tonight Im betting there is more value to the under on board according to my projections which are a full possession under this number at 224. I know might seem like . small edge, but any edge against very accurate overall totals is a contrarian go signal situation for me. The Bucks are 1-20 UNDER L/21 off a 10+ win in a road game after a win in which they never trailed with a combined average score of 195.1 ppg scored with only 1 game in the 21 sub set going over this set total. The Bucks are 0-13 UNDER L/13 as a home favorite with less than two days rest off a 10+ win as a road favorite in which they had less than 15% of their points from free throws with a combined average 0f 202 ppg going on the board with none of the games eclipsing this posted total. NBAl teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MILWAUKEE) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout win by 20 points or more are 51-14 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 216.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. Play UNDER |
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02-10-20 | Hornets +2.5 v. Pistons | 87-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Things are not good for both these franchises. However, it seems at the time of this game, that the Hornets are the lesser of these two evils. Detroit has absolutely no continuity, and looked extremely weak, last time out, as they were out rebounded by a 47-28 in a 95-92 loss Saturday to the New York Knicks. I feel strongly that trading veteran Andre Drummond to Cleveland will wreak temporary havoc on the flow of this team making them fade material in their curret form. Overall, Charlotte has defeated Detroit nine consecutive times and Im betting they get us the cover here tonight. DETROIT is 0-8 ATS when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent this season. The Pistons are 1-16 ATS/SU with less than two days rest off a loss in a home game when they lost 3 straight vs current opponent. 'NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHARLOTTE) - after 5 or more consecutive losses, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 53-25 ATS L/23 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Charlotte to cover |
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02-09-20 | Jazz v. Rockets UNDER 232.5 | 114-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
The Jazz are 1-18 L/19 with rest off a win in a home game after a game that was tied 5+ times with a combined average of 201 ppg scored with the highest combined score during the 19 game run clicking in at 227. The Jazz are 1-17-2 UNDER L/20 off a win in a home game when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent with the average combined score clicking in at 191.7 ppg with none of the 20 games going over this set total. The Rockets are 1-16-1 UNDER L/18 as a home favorite off a loss as a road favorite after allowing 50-plus points in the paint with a combined average of 206.7 ppg going on the board. HOUSTON is 31-16 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 215.8 ppg. HOUSTON is 23-11 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season. HOUSTON is 23-12 UNDER against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.2 ppg going on the board. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (UTAH) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 32-7 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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02-09-20 | Grizzlies v. Wizards +2 | 106-99 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Memphis has been uptrending for a while now but are off a hard fought loos last night in Philadelphia and are now on tired legs with this being their 3rd game in 4 night. Meanwhile, Washington has shown signs of life of late, as they play hard and show great work ethic , while winning 3 of their L/4 while covering 6 of their L/9. Tonight vs the Grizzlies I expect more consistent work, and some extra motivation in revenge mode for a loss they suffered to the Grizzlies in Memphis on Dec 14th . WASHINGTON is 22-11 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. WASHINGTON is 12-3 ATS in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 assists/game or more this season. The Grizzlies are 1-15-1 ATS /0-17 SU off a road game when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road. NBA Teams like the Grizzlies are 0-14 ATS /SU on the road off a loss as a road dog facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.5. Play on Washington to cover |
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02-09-20 | Knicks v. Hawks OVER 226.5 | 135-140 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
This will be the second time Atlanta and New York have played. The Knicks won the first contest 143-120 on Dec. 17 and now Im betting they come at each other with same energy here today and get us an over winner. ATLANTA is 11-3 OVER versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more this season with a combined average of 234.2 ppg scored. NBA Teams like the Knicks are 15-0 OVER L/15 after playing as a road favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 7 refereed turnovers per game with a combined average of 237.1 ppg scored. NBA Teams like the Hawks are 15-0-1 OVER L/16 as a favorite with less than two days rest after playing as a road dog facing an opponent averaging less than 20 fouls-against per game with the average combined score clicking in at 231.4 ppg. Play on the OVER |
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02-08-20 | Nuggets -3 v. Suns | 117-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Phoenix blasted the Houston Rockets on the first leg of a back to back Friday, 127-91, snapping a four-game losing skid. However, the Suns have proven highly inconsistent and Im betting they fall flat here tonight vs a Denver Nuggets team that went into Utah and pulled off an upset last time out. NBA Road favorites (DENVER) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog against opponent off an upset win as an underdog are 33-8 L/23 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. The Nuggets are 15-0 ATS /14-1 SU when the line is within 3 of pick when they are off two games in which they allowed fewer than 100 points. NBA teams like the Suns are 0-19 ATS /0-19 SU as a home dog with less than two days rest off a 10+ win in which they had at least 30% of their points from threes. Play on Denver to cover |
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02-08-20 | Bucks v. Magic UNDER 220.5 | 112-95 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Orlando owns the best ppg defence in the NBA and ranks 29th in offence, behind the 28th ranked pace, so its obvious to see the type of game plan they implement. Mean while, ee all know Milwaukee can light the board up quickly behind the No.1 offence so Orlando will take special care here and try to drag this game down to a speed that takes the Bucks out of their flow. Note: Milwaukee also ranks 9th in ppg D, in the league so the Magics pedestrian O is really going to have trouble tonight with output. Advantage to the under. The Magic are 0-15 L/15 as a dog with rest off a loss in a road game in which they had at least 5 turnovers more than their season-to-date average with a combined average of 181.5 ppg going on the board. The Magic are 0-17 UNDER L/17 at home off a loss when they lost 3 straight vs current opponent with a combined average of 200 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 12-2 UNDER in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 204.8 ppg going on the board. Play UNDER |
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02-07-20 | Blazers v. Jazz -8.5 | 114-117 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show | |
Utah looked asleep at the wheel vs a short handed Denver side the other night and suffered a 3 point loss at home as 9 point favorites. It was embarrassing to say the least, for a team that prides itself on hardcore blue collar work ethic. Now looking for redemption Im betting they get it vs a exhausted Portland team that played last night in as come from behind win and now playing their 4th game in week . UTAH is 13-3 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite over the last 2 season. Note: The Trailblazers are 0-10 ATS/SU L/10 as a dog after a win in which they trailed after the third with the average ppg diff registering at -13.6 ppg. PORTLAND is 4-12 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Jazz are 13-1 ATS /SU as a favorite off a loss after a game with 8+ lead changes. The Jazz are 11-0 ATS/SU off a loss in a home game facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc with the average ppg diff clicking in at 14.3 ppg. The Jazz are 19-3-1 ATS /21-2 SU at home with rest facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.5 ppg. NBA Teams like the Jazz are 11-0 ATS /SU L/14 as a home 8+ favorite with less than two days rest off a loss in which their opponent shot worse than 25% from beyond the arc with at least 20 attempts with the average ppg diff clicking in at +20.9 ppg. Play on Utah to cover |
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02-07-20 | Rockets v. Suns UNDER 234 | 91-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
The new look Rockets, on tired legs get set to play the second of a road back-to-back set Friday night against the Phoenix Suns . Im betting some of their trades screw with the offensive flow of the team at least for tonight, and because of their uptempo win vs the Lakers last night will now be in an emotional letdown spot in regression stage. This Im betting will effect the total to the low side here this evening. The Suns are 0-13 UNDER L/13 as a dog with rest off a loss as a favorite when seeking same season revenge for a loss at home with a combined average of 187.6 ppg scored. The Rockets are 0-16-2 UNDER L/18 on the road when the line is within 3 of pick facing an opponent averaging more than 24 assists per game with a combined average of 213.2 ppg going on the scoreboard. NBA Teams like the Suns are 1-17-1 UNDER L/19 as a home dog with rest after playing as a road favorite facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc with a combined average of 212.9 ppg going on the board. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (HOUSTON) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 215 points or more are 42-13 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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02-07-20 | Raptors -1 v. Pacers | 115-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
The Toronto Raptors recorded an impressive victory for their franchise-best 12-game winning streak by come from behind and erasing a 19-point deficit to upend the Indiana Pacers. This Raptors team is confident and is never out of a game because of their consistency at both ends of the court. Im betting they will be pushed tonight, but in the end will find a way to notch a 2nd straight victory in this series. Note:The Raptors are 10-0 ATS /9-1 SU with less than two days rest off a win in a home game after a win in which they trailed by 15. Teams like the Pacers are 0-10 ATS /SU L/10 at home when the line is within 3 of pick off a road game after a loss in which they led by 15. NBA Teams like the Raptors are 11-0 ATS /SU on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a home game after rebounding less than 20% of their own misses. NBA team vs the money line (INDIANA) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 11-30 SU L/5 seasons and 0-5 this season! NBA team (INDIANA) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 46-105 ATS L/23 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Toronto to cover |
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02-07-20 | Mavs -3 v. Wizards | 118-119 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Dallas does its best work against teams like Washington. DALLAS is 12-2 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36%or better of their attempts this season and have excelled as road chalk going 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games as an away favorite. Also when Dallas comes off a home game and then playing on the road they are 19-0 ATS L/19 overall. I know the Mavericks are with super star Donic and possibly Kristaps Porzingis but from a depth standpoint still have the guns needed to take down a defensively deficient opponent.DALLAS is 15-6 ATS versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game this season. The Mavericks are 15-0 ATS and have won 13 straight SU/ATS on the road with rest off a home game in which they had at least 30% of their points from threes. NBA teams like the Mavericks are 25-2-1 ATS /26-2 SU as a road favorite after a game as a home favorite in which they had a shooting percentage at least 10 lower than their opponent. NBA Home underdogs (WASHINGTON) - excellent offensive team (102 or more PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 or more PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games are 17-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Dallas to cover |
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02-06-20 | Spurs v. Blazers UNDER 229.5 | 117-125 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
San Antonio operates a medium speed ranking 15th in the NBA pace, and own the 12 ranked offensive rating with the average combined score of their road games clicking in at 228.4 ppg a full possession under this offered total and tonight Im betting their output and pace will slow even more as this is their 3rd road game in 4 nights . Meanwhile, Portland owns the 11th ranked pace, and are in a regression state after their star Damian Lillard went on a historic points run . Both circumstances Im betting combine to see a score that stays on the low side of this number. The Trailblazers are 0-13 UNDER L/13 when the line is within 3 of pick off a loss in which they had more than 8 times as` many field goal attempts as turnovers with a combined average of 198.4 ppg scored. NBA Teams like the Spurs are 0-10 UNDER L/10 on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with rest off a loss in a road game in which they scored 15 or more points in the second than the first half with a combined average score of 210.5 ppg. |
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02-05-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz -9 | 98-95 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Utah has dominated this series at home winning 9 straight here and are 7-2-1 ATS and Im betting they have a distinct edge tonight vs a Utah side that played hard last night from start to finish vs Portland which was their 3rd game in 4days. Now in a letdown spot on tired legs the host has the edge.The Denver Nuggets could also find themselves with a short bench for their Wednesday road game against the Utah Jazz after reportedly pulling off a four-team trade Tuesday night. This will effect their flow. DENVER is 1-9 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season. The Jazz are 19-2-1 ATS /21-1 SU at home with rest facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws. Play on Utah to cover |
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02-05-20 | Grizzlies v. Mavs UNDER 228.5 | 121-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
Doncic's second sprained ankle this season has him on the sidelines again, and while the Mavericks has adapted without him Im seeing flow issues with the offense especially on the perimeter. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are talking about playing better defence, and last time out scored just 96 points but held the Pistons to just 82 points and Im betting more stringent D, will once again be on tonight s . agenda in Dallas which will help keep this score on the low side of the total. MEMPHIS is 24-9 UNDER in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 214.9 ppg. MEMPHIS is 18-8 UNDER in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217 ppg scored. The Grizzlies are 0-14 UNDER L/14 as a road dog with less than two days rest off a 10+ win in a home game facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with a combined average of 184.8 ppg. The Mavericks are 4-20-1UNDER L/25 with rest off a win in a road game in which they scored fewer than 10 fast break points with a combined average of 197.9 ppg scored. NBA Teams are 3-24 UNDER L/27 as a home favorite off a game as a dog when their last four games are LLWW with a combined average of 202.7 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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02-05-20 | Hawks +5 v. Wolves | 127-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Halting a season-long 12-game losing streak when they return home to host the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday Im betting will not be as easy as the line indicates, even though the Hawks are short handed. Nothing comes easy to the Wolves, especially winning. MINNESOTA is 0-7 ATS versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The Timberwolves are 2-17 ATS at home facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc. The Timberwolves are 0-14 ATS /1-13 SU at home when they are off two games in which they allowed 110+ points. Play on Atlanta to cover |
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02-04-20 | Spurs +12 v. Lakers | 102-129 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
The Spurs fell 108-105 to the Clippers last night in have looked competitive for a while now and up-trending in my power rankings. Its not an easy task playing on consecutive nights in the NBA and especially not here in LA where two top tier teams are located, but San Antonio is one of the leagues better conditioned teams, and are going to be motivated to get revenge for a 114-104 loss at home in this series back in late November. SAN ANTONIO is 31-7 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Also teams playing the 2nd of back to back in LA are actually a long term good bets, going 82-65-1 ATS for a 56% conversion rate. ( just the opposite of what you might expect) SAN ANTONIO is 32-18 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons The Lakers are 1-18 ATS as a home 8+ favorite off a game as a favorite in which they scored 10 or more points in the first than the fourth quarter. The Spurs are 11-0 ATS /9-3 SU as a dog with less than two days rest after a game as a road dog in which they had more than 8 times as` many field goal attempts as turnovers with all 3 losses ins trends subset coming by exactly 2 points. NBA Road underdogs of 10 or more points (SAN ANTONIO) - after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games are 23-6 L/23 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on San Antonio to cover |
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02-04-20 | Blazers +4.5 v. Nuggets | 99-127 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
The Blazers enter this game on a red hot 4 game win streak behind the blazing efforts of super star Damian Lillard. The Trail Blazers guard is on a historic run—one that could shape the West’s 8-seed race and Portland’s plans at the trade deadline. Tonight behind Lillard Im betting on the Blazers making life tough on the Nuggets and getting us the cover in revenge mode, for the two losses they have suffered to the Nuggets this season home and away. Note: Denver is off an OT win vs the Pistons last time out on Sunday, and could easily find themselves in an emotional letdown spot. NBA Teams like the Nuggets are 2-17 ATS 6-13 SU L/19 as a favorite after they had overtime. NBA Teams like the Blazers are 18-0 ATS as a dog with rest after playing as a home dog when seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road.The Trailblazers are 21-3-1 ATS on the road after playing as a home dog.The Trailblazers are also 14-1 ATS off a win as a dog when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent. PORTLAND is 11-1 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Nuggets are 1-16 ATS L/17 as a home favorite with less than two days rest off a loss when they won 2 straight vs current opponent. Play on Portland to cover |
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02-04-20 | Bucks -6 v. Pelicans | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Milwaukee bounced back from a 127-115 home loss to the Denver Nuggets on Friday to close their three-game homestand with a 129-108 victory over the Phoenix Suns on Sunday and roll into the Bayou to play the up trending Pelicans. You can bet because of the hype of Zion Williamson that the powerful Bucks will be in the mood to to make a statement here and give the kid and his team something to think about. Meanwhile, the Pelicans were humbled last time out vs Houston after imploding late, and giving up a boat load full of points thanks to a massive amount of turnovers. Note: NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) - after a game committing 13+ more turnovers than opponents are 26-66 ATS L/23 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. he Bucks are 23-3 ATS /24-2 SU as a road favorite with less than two days rest off a home game in which they scored a least 18 fast break points with the L/19 wins coming by 7 ppg or more and the overall ppg diff clicking in at +12.4 ppg. The Pelicans are 0-9-1 ATS/0-10 SU at home off a loss facing an opponent averaging less than 10 offensive rebounds with the average ppg diff registering in at 11 ppg. NBA Teams like the Pelicans are 0-17-1 ATS /0-18 SU as a home dog with rest off a loss in a road game when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent with the average ppg diff clicking in at 17.2 ppg. Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover |
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02-03-20 | Spurs +10 v. Clippers | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
The Clippers have won two of three against the Spurs, including a 134-109 victory the last time they met on Dec. 21 in San Antonio. However, it must be noted that SAN ANTONIO is 10-1 ATS revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Clippers are 4-24-1 ATS L/29 as a home favorite off a home game when their opponent is seeking same season revenge for a loss at home. NBA Teams like the Clippers are 0-16 ATS as a 8+ favorite after a game as a home favorite in which allowing 50-plus points in the paint. The Spurs are 12-0 ATS L/12 as a dog off a home game in which their opponent had at least a 10 percent higher BAP. NBA Favorites of 10 or more points (LA CLIPPERS) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game are 6-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover |
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02-03-20 | Wolves v. Kings -1.5 | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
The Minnesota Timberwolves are mired in an 11-game losing streak for the second time this season and are fade material in their current form. The Timberwolves are 0-18 ATS/SU as a dog after Karl Anthony Towns was their high scorer by double digits last game. The Kings are 11-0 ATS/SU as a home favorite with less than two days rest off a loss in a home game facing an opponent averaging more than 45 rebounds per game. NBA Teams like the Kings are 18-0 SU/ 17-1 ATS as a home favorite with less than two days rest off a 10+ loss in which they had 3 or fewer double digit scorers. NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (SACRAMENTO) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO) after 42+ games are 118-33 L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover |
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02-03-20 | Pistons v. Grizzlies -6.5 | 82-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
The Grizzlies enter this game having won 11 of their L/14 and despite of loss are capable home favorites vs a team that continues to play with out their top player Griffin and will now be without point guard Derrick Rose who is unlikely to play Monday due to a groin injury suffered during the first half of Sunday's game. The Pistons are 1-18 ATS /SU as a dog with less than two days rest off a win after allowing 50-plus points in the paint. NBA Teams like the Pistons are 0-9-1 ATS/0-10 SU L/10 as a road dog off a win in which they scored more than 50 points in the paint with the average ppg diff clicking in at - 13.3 ppg. The Grizzlies are 11-0-1 ATS/12-0 SU as a home favorite after a game as a road dog in which they had an assist percentage at least 10 worse than their season-to-date average with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.6 ppg. NBA Teams like the Grizzlies are 18-2 ATS /19-1 SU as a home favorite with more than one day of rest off a 10+ loss in a road game in which their opponent had at least a 10 percent higher BAP with the average ppg diff registering at +13.9 ppg. Play on the Grizzlies to cover |
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02-03-20 | Celtics -6.5 v. Hawks | 123-115 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
The Atlanta Hawks will have trouble finding enough healthy players to compete on Monday when they host the Boston Celtics.. The Hawks lost two more starters on Saturday and could be without leading scorer Trae Young when they return home to meet the Celtics. If young plays he may see limited time because of nagging minor injuries. The Hawks are 1-19 ATS/SU as a home dog off a road game when seeking same season revenge for a loss on the road. NBA Teams like the Hawks are 0-15-1 ATS /0-16 SU as a home dog with rest off a loss in a road game when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent. Play on Celtics to cover |
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02-03-20 | Celtics v. Hawks UNDER 224 | 123-115 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
The Atlanta Hawks will have trouble finding enough healthy players to compete on Monday when they host the Boston Celtics.. The Hawks lost two more starters on Saturday and could be without leading scorer Trae Young when they return home to meet the Celtics. If young plays he may see limited time because of nagging minor injuries. With thaqt said, Im betting the Hawks offensive flow will be curtailed as will be their offensive output in a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the total. The Celtics are 0-13 UNDER L/13 as a road 8+ favorite with rest coming off a win with a combined average of 196.8 ppg scored. HC Stevens is 25-9 UNDER as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points as the coach of BOSTON with the combined average score of those tilts clikcing in at 205.6 ppg. The Hawks are 0-10 UNDER L/10 as a 8+ dog off a loss in which their points decreased by at least 25 from the game before with a combined averag of 198.2 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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02-03-20 | Magic -4 v. Hornets | 112-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
The Hornets have lost 10 of their last 11 games, including two on the road since pulling off Tuesday night's home victory against in the New York Knicks.The Magic are in a five-game losing streak, coming off Saturday night's 102-89 home loss to the Miami Heat. both have conistently been in the loss column However, I see more promise from the Magic and give them by support here tonight.Prior to last week, the Hornets lost six consecutive home games. In the last seven home outings, they've failed to score more than 107 points in regulation in any of those. Advantage : Orlando. ORLANDO is 11-3 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at +9.7 ppg. When Orlando visited here on Jan 20th they won by a 106-83 count and a rinse and repeat effort is my projection. NBA Teams like the Magic are 14-0 ATS/SU on the road when the line is within 3 of pick off a 10+ loss facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with the average ppg diff registering at + 11 ppg. Play on Orlando to cover
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02-02-20 | Bulls +10.5 v. Raptors | 102-129 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
Thanks to Torontos current 10 game win streak there is a slightly bloated line attached to this tilt involving the Chicago Bulls. When these teams played earlier this season, the Raptors pulled out a 93-92 squeaker, and Im betting on another close tilt here with the Bulls getting my support. Note: From a SRS perspective: Chicago owns a -2.97 marker, while Toronto a 5.72 , which roughly evens out into a -9 true line according to those projections. So we have a one possession edge which qualifies for me to back the Bulls here getting points. SRS =Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. TORONTO is 14-29 ATS after 6 or more consecutive wins. The Bulls are 14-0-1 ATS on the road facing an opponent averaging less than 10 offensive rebounds with the average ppg diff clicking in at 1.2 ppg. NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (TORONTO) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game are 4-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate. Play on Chicago to cover |
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02-02-20 | Pelicans +5.5 v. Rockets | 109-117 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
The Pelicans have an adrenalin rush and momentum entering this game as Zion Williamson makes his presence felt. New Orleans has won 3 straight, and will not be easily defeated by the Rockets here today. The Pelicans are 11-0 ATS/SU as a dog with less than two days rest off a 10+ win as a favorite when they shot better than 50 percent from the field their last two tilts. NBA team vs the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more are 26-3 L/23 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) - off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival against opponent off a home win are 36-13 L/23 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on New Orleans to cover |
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02-02-20 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 231 | 108-129 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
Milwaukee came out last time out asleep at the proverbial wheel, and lost as DD favorites to a short handed Denver team by a 127- . Now a little embarrassed Im expecting a concerted effort to make sure they don't have a repeat performance and to make sure they have a much better defensive effort. Teams like the Bucks are 7-27-1 UNDER as a home 8+ favorite with rest off a 10+ loss in which they scored 15 or more points in the first than the second half with a combined average of 200.9 ppg. Teams like Bucks are 1-13-1 UNDER L/15 with rest after playing as a home favorite when they lost 2 straight vs current opponent with a combined average of 210.5 ppg. The Suns are 0-11 UNDER L/11 on the road off a loss in a home game facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with the average combined score clicking in at 207.4 ppg. The Suns are 1-13 UNDER as a dog off a loss as a dog in which their assists decreased by at least 10 from the game before with a combined average of 207.3 ppg scored. PHOENIX is 15-4 UNDER in road games off a home loss over the last 2 seasons are 213.6 ppg. Play UNDER |
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02-02-20 | Suns v. Bucks -11 | 108-129 | Win | 100 | 2 h 4 m | Show | |
Milwaukee came out last time out asleep at the proverbial wheel, and lost as DD favorites to a short handed Denver team by a 127-115 . Now a little embarrassed Im expecting a concerted effort to make sure they don't have a repeat performance and to make sure they have a much better defensive effort in what should be a start to finish effort. Play on Milwaukee to cover |
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02-01-20 | Jazz -5 v. Blazers | 107-124 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
The Blazers are off a huge emotional upset vs the Lakers last night in LA, for Kobe Bryants memorial celebration last night where Lilliard went off for 48 points. The Trailblazers are 0-12 ATS /SU with no rest after a game as a road dog in which allowing 50-plus points in the paint with the average ppg diff clicking in at -8.9. The Jazz are 11-0 ATS/SU as a favorite with less than two days rest off a loss in which they scored fewer than 10 fast break points with the average ppg diff registering at +18.9 ppg. |
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02-01-20 | Lakers -6.5 v. Kings | 129-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
The Lakers payed tribute to former superstar Kobe Bryant before their Friday home game against the Portland Trail Blazers, but then they couldn't get a win and were punished by Damian Lillard's 48-point Kobe like explosion in a 127-119 defeat. Now a little embarrassed Im betting they come out here and take their frustration out on the Kings in a start to finish effort. Note: The Lakers are 6-0 SU on second nights, including 4-0 on the road. The Kings are 0-17 ATS/0-17 SU as a home dog off a win as a road dog facing an opponent averaging more than 5 blocks per game with the average ppg diff clicking in at -16 ppg. NBA Teams like the Kings are 0-18 ATS /SU as a home dog with less than two days rest off a 10+ win in which they had at least 30% of their points from threes (Which was the case for the Kings in a upset win vs the Clippers last time out) Play on the LA Lakers to cover |
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02-01-20 | 76ers v. Celtics -3 | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
Kemba Walker is a 50 /50 bet to play tonight for the Celtics which would slightly adjust my projections but not enough not to lay three with a deep home team in an important eastern conference matchup. The Celtics are 19-0-2 ATS /21-0 SU as a home favorite with less than two days rest off a game as a favorite when they lost 3 straight vs current opponent with none of the L/20 games in this subset coming by less than 5 points a game. NBA Home favorites (BOSTON) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a home win by 10 points or more are 55-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Teams like the Sixers are 1-14 SU/2-13 ATS as a dog off a game as a favorite facing an opponent averaging less than 16 percent of points off free throws. Play on Boston to cover |