Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-30-18 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 207.5 | 101-117 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 1 The Celtics and the Sixers will resume to long time rivalry in the first game of this 2nd round play off matchup this Monday night. I'm expecting the Celtics to make this a physically, grinding series as they look to slow down their opponents explosive offensive attack, and to be hell bent on controlling the boards, especially in their own end, where the Sixers have been rebound behemoths on offense this season. The Celtics base their successes and failures on their ability to play D, and here in game one with key contributor Jaylen Brown expected to miss or be less than 100% the Celtics are really going to depend on their superior defending capabilities vs the run and gun Sixers. It must also be noted that the Sixers have been off since Tuesday, and may show some rust here vs a side that I'm betting will be physical with them. Meanwhile, the Celtics are off a grueling 7 game series with the Bucks and will not have the legs or emotional drive to run here tonight. The above combinations should see this tilt remain on the low side of the Total. Asked Sunday for keys to defeating the Celtics, Sixers coach Brett Brown said, "Just how you're gonna score. ... They're an excellent defensive team. We respect them with what they do defensively and I think they're clever offensively BOSTON is 11-3 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season with a combined average of 198.7 ppg scored.Brown is 33-17 UNDER in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game as the coach of PHILADELPHIA with a combined average score of 199 ppg scored. Stevens is 42-17 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of BOSTON with a combined average of 202.7 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 41-16 UNDER l/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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04-29-18 | Jazz +11.5 v. Rockets | 96-110 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 1 WAR. That's what I'm betting the Jazz want to make this series into . Not only a physical in the trenches confrontation which they have an advantage in , but a mental and emotionally charged conflict. In the book the " ART OF WAR" Sun Tzu , there is a chapter that, explains how an army's opportunities come from the openings in the environment caused by the relative weakness of the enemy and how to respond to changes in the fluid battlefield over a given area. This is something the Jazz have been very good at in the 2nd half of the season, as is evident by their impressive record. I know Houston is a behemoth enemy and the Jazz are off a grueling series with the Thunder, and that now the linesmakers are expecting an emotional and physical drop off for the Jazz vs the Rockets in game 1 of this series. But , what's become evident to me is the rarity with which the Jazz, deter from work horse like ethics, and how disciplined they are, as well as their ability to pinpoint a teams weaknesses and attack it. With that said there is enough value on the line, for me to take the points here in game 1, and than watch closely to see which direction Ill take in game 2, depending directly on how game 1 plays out. Just one last thing I know the Jazz have lost by DDs in recent meetings with the Rockets, but this team has shown a ability to learn from their mistakes, and Houston has recently not looked as cohesive as usual.
UTAH is 8-0 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. HOUSTON is 0-8 ATS in home games after scoring 120 points or more this season ( which happened in their series clinching game vs the Wolves last time out) Note: The Jazz are 15-0 ATS /14-1 SU on the road with rest off a game as a favorite in which they scored less than 15% of their points from free throws , the lone SU loss came by 3 points .
Play on the Utah Jazz to cover |
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04-28-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors OVER 222.5 | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 31 h 6 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 2 - Best of 7 - Game 1 Three of the four games these teams played against each other this season resulted in high scoring affairs. The two most recent games have seen 246, and 240 points scored. These teams are electric offensively and feed off of each others attacks in transition. I'm betting if Golden State wants to beat the streaking Pelicans their going to have to score in bunches, and I am equally confident that the Pelicans can produce some offensive fireworks of their own in a opening game that I have pegged to go OVER the total. Note: New Orleans has scored 111, 119, 131 in their L/3 games. NEW ORLEANS is 17-6 OVER when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season with the average combined score of those games clicking in at 227.7 ppg.NEW ORLEANS is 22-12 OVER after a combined score of 225 points or more this season with a combined average of 226.4 ppg scored ( NO beat PORT 131-123 L/time out) NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 54-14 OVER L/22 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 233 ppg going on the score board. Play on the OVER |
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04-28-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors -7.5 | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 2 - Best of 7 - Game 1 In a game I have pegged for a run and gun affair laying 8 or 9 points is not a concern, according to my own projections. Golden State can score in bunches and that what I'm expecting they will do today against a another high octane offense, but the difference maker will come via home court advantage and the Warriors overall superior talent and of course their play off experience. The Warriors will also be motivated in knowing their opponent is streaking, and will be very prepared to take the proverbial wind out of their sails and deliver the message that the Warriors are champions to be feared, especially with Curry si in the lineup( upgraded to possible for this game 1 tilt) Even if he does not play I still like the Warriors in Game 1 . Also after 3 days rest, I'm betting the Pelicans momentum might take a hit. In the past , they are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 3 or more days rest and have a recent history of conference semi final ATS futility failing to cash 4 of their 5 . Warriors are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Note: Warriors are 26-2 SU L/28 in this series. The Pelicans did upset the Warriors this season, but Curry was not in the lineup. He's been upgraded to possibly play tonight, and I'm betting their will be no upset in this sot. The Pelicans are 0-15 SU/ATS as a dog off a home win in which they scored at least 15 points more in the second half than they did the first half with the average margin loss coming by 15.93 ppg, with the closest loss coming by 10 points. Play on Golden State Warriors to cover |
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04-28-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | 96-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3 The Celtics are a storied franchise, with a great fan base, and tonight, the TD Center will be rocking. This I'm betting will be an intimidating environment for the Bucks, who are at a disadvantage here in my humble opinion. The Bucks, have lost eight straight series since winning two in 2001 and are 0-17 all-time when trailing a series 0-2. The Celtics are 35-0 when leading a series 2-0 and are once again my pick to advance to the next round and more importantly as far as we are concerned to cover the number. "Game 7 at TD Garden is what you play for," said Boston coach Brad Stevens, whose team won a seventh game against the Washington Wizards in last year's Eastern Conference semifinals. The experience of that victory will also be an advantage of the Celtics. BOSTON is 16-4 ATS on Saturday games ( anomaly or nor still an interesting trend). BOSTON is a perfect 9-0 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season.( They lost game 6 by 11 points, but the game was a lot closer than the final score would indicate) Celtics are 11-2 ATS off a road loss. Milwaukee is 4-13 ATS L/17 as a road dog. The Bucks are 0-24 ATS L/24 as a rested dog off a win as a home favorite over a 280+ team and they are facing a team with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.47 like the Celtics. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 51-6 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with the average margin of victory combing by 10.2 ppg. Play on the Boston Celtics to cover |
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04-27-18 | Cavs v. Pacers -1 | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - CLE Leads 3-2 Ill just say it right off the bat, the Pacers are every bit as good a team as the Cavaliers, and must not be underestimated here at home as short chalk, with elimination on the line. They lost a last shot heartbreaker in Cleveland 98-95 and I'm betting will be on the right side of this tilt and force a game 7. QUOTE: "The series ain't over," Oladipo said. "You got to win four games, right? We still got a game on Friday. I don't think anyone is discouraged or upset. It sucks we lose. But we can give ourselves a chance to come back (to Cleveland) for Game 7." END QUOTE. Oladipo may not be the most eloquent of speakers, but he has captured my feelings to the tee. Yes, I know the Cavs have the best player in the world on the floor ( LeBron James) but the Pacers have something that is coveted by all sports team and that is chemistry. INDIANA is 26-13 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.CLEVELAND is 11-22 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots this season. INDIANA is 15-4 ATS in April games over the last 2 seasons.INDIANA is 19-6 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season and is 11-2 ATS in home games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games dating back to last season. Cavs HC Lue is 19-34 ATS vs. division opponents in his career. The Pacers are 14-0 SU /ATS as a favorite with rest off a loss as a dog in which they made more field goals than their opponent with the average margin of victory coming by 15 ppg. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are just 23-55 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover |
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04-26-18 | Celtics +5 v. Bucks | 86-97 | Loss | -107 | 34 h 14 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - BOS Leads 3-2 Boston is a character team, and rarely never give it 100% and consistently come out and play hard. The banged up Celtics have been tenacious in 4 of the 5 games in this series, and notched the 92-87 win last time out on their own home floor to grab a 3-2 lead in this series. The Bucks are very talented and I'm not being disrespectful here, but they don't have the same never say die work ethic the Celtics have. They won their two games at home in this series because of tremendous shooting ( 57,52% FG), but their FG% conversion rate has been wildly inconsistent this season, as was the case last time out when they scored just 87 points and converted on just 36.8% of their shots I know this a do or die situation for the Bucks, but I'm betting the Celtics make this a war, and won;t let the Bucks take this to a game 7 without making it very physically difficult for their hosts, which makes getting points a viable betting opportunity in my humble opinion. Boston has covered 5 of their L/7 here in Milwaukee. BOSTON is 30-13 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season.BOSTON is 17-5 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season.BOSTON is 20-6 ATS as an underdog this season.BOSTON is 13-5 ATS after a win by 6 points or less this season. MILWAUKEE is 8-18 ATS L/26 when playing against a team with a winning record.MILWAUKEE is 9-20 ATS versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or free throws/game.MILWAUKEE is 4-15 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.MILWAUKEE is 3-11 ATS in home games off a road loss this season. Play on the Boston Celtics to cover |
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04-25-18 | Pacers +6.5 v. Cavs | 95-98 | Win | 100 | 24 h 13 m | Show | |
The Pacers took game 1 in this series by DDs, and that woke the Cavs out of dead sleep, as they realized they were in trouble, if they did not leave everything on the proverbial table. The next three games in the series, has seen the Cavs play their hearts out, and win two games, but all three games were decided by 4 points or less. With that said, I'm betting 6.5 points offers value for the underdog in a series that is evenly matched . Upset alert in motion here. Indiana has covered 8 of their L/10 visits to Cleveland. CLEVELAND is 3-16 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. INDIANA is 18-6 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.NDIANA is 16-5 ATS L/21 in road games when playing with 2 days rest . NBA team (INDIANA) - off a home loss against a division rival against opponent off a win against a division rival are 55-26 L/5 seasons 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover |
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04-24-18 | Heat +10.5 v. 76ers | 91-104 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
The Heat are in a do or die situation. This is a proud group, that I'm betting Wil be primed to play tonight vs a talented but young Philadelphia group that is new at closing out play off series,something that is not as easy some might think. I know the Heat as a group understand that all they need is to come out here and give it their all and this series goes back to Miami where the Sixes will be under a lot more pressure.Like the old adage goes, It,s not over til the fat lady sings. |
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04-24-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -2.5 | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 24 h 11 m | Show | |
Boston was up 2-0 in this play off series entering the 2 game set in Milwaukee this past weekend , and blew a DD deficit last time out to lose 104-102 heart breaker to lose and now see the Bucks tie this series a 2-2. Right now the Bucks are converting their shots at a high clip, but, their consistency all season long has been a question mark, and I'm betting they now revert back to their norms. Even though the Bucks have been shooting the lights out in the L/3 games of this series, that's not necessarily a good omen for them here tonight as MILWAUKEE is 9-20 ATS L/29 after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better. It must also be noted that the never say die blue collar Celtics are 18-4 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season and is 11-2 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season. MILWAUKEE is 9-18 ATS after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season. MILWAUKEE is 18-30 ATS off a home win dating back to last season.
NBA Home teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 32-4 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or better of their shots against opponent after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher are 11-23 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 23-55 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Boston to cover |
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04-23-18 | Thunder v. Jazz -4 | 96-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
The Utah Jazz have snatched momentum away in this series by winning game 2 in Oklahoma City and game 3 in Utah. I'm now betting the smash and grab their way to a win and cover in game 4 and take a commanding lead behind a hard core physical brand of basketball that has made them one of the best teams in the 2ND half of the season and dark horse championship contenders. I know the Thunder also played physically in game 3, but they were playing a Jazz side that thrives in this type of game as was evident by the Thunder coughing up the ball 15 times in the loss. In the 3 games in this series, the Jazz have outscored the Thunder 140-108 in the paint and this is where I'm betting this tilt will be won once again, in the trenches.
UTAH is 21-9 ATS L30 after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-19 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season.OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-25 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent this season and is 9-22 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season.OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-16 ATS vs. division opponents this season. Jazz Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 66-22 ATS L22 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a road loss against a division rival are 36-156 22 seasons for a go against 72 % conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Utah Jazz to cover |
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04-22-18 | Raptors v. Wizards +2.5 | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show | |
The Wizards' surprised me with a top tier performance Friday night and took a victory vs Toronto. Now with a chance to even its first-round series with the Raptors on Sunday at Capital One Arena I'm expecting them to come out here rejuvenated and very motivated to perform behind their all star back court duo of Wall and Beal. The Wizards outshot the Raptors 55.3 percent to 45.1 percent in a very physical game that featured several altercations. Look for the home town crowd in DC to be the difference maker here tonight. NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, on Sunday games are 28-7 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Casey is 14-28 ATS L/42 in all playoff games as the coach of TORONTONBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TORONTO) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, with a winning record on the season are just 39-76 L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Washington to cover ( LATE STEAM)
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04-22-18 | Warriors v. Spurs +7 | 90-103 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - GSW Leads 3-0 So it' do or die for the Spurs. I don' know if they can snatch this game outright but I' am betting they wont go down without a fight.In their last trip to the hardwood hc Popovich was not on the sidelines as his wife had just passed away. I'm sure this contributed to less than focused effort from his players. Now with elimination on board and the team playing hard for their grieving coach a cover becomes a high probability betting option in my humble opinion. GOLDEN STATE is 8-18 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins this season. NBAFavorites (GOLDEN STATE) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. Are 14-40 ATS L5 seasons for a 74% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on San Antonio to cover |
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04-22-18 | Celtics +5 v. Bucks | 102-104 | Win | 100 | 28 h 31 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4- BOS Leads 2-1 |
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04-21-18 | Thunder v. Jazz -4 | 102-115 | Win | 100 | 37 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm going against the zig zag theory tonight and backing the jazz at home after ending a 7 game losing streak on the road vs Oklahoma evening this series series 1-1. The Jazz were one of the strongest teams in the league in the 2nd half of the season while oklama despite of being talented were highly inconsistent playing like championship contenders one night and chumps the next as has been the case in this play off series. I still like the thunders talent ,but playing here in Utah is not an easy task, as is evident by the Jazz impressive 28-13 home record. Meanwhile, the Thunder are barely above .500 on the road and look like they had some momentum snatched away from them in game 2 which was evident on the face of the players at the end of that last tilt. UTAH is 14-4 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 17-26 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-22 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-18 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. UTAH is 16-7 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games this season. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 63-26 Ats L5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. NBA team vs the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off a home loss against a division rival, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 11-26 L5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Jazz to cover |
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04-20-18 | Celtics +6.5 v. Bucks | 92-116 | Loss | -107 | 50 h 51 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - BOS Leads 2-0 The Celtics are a never say die side, and I've been back and forth in my thoughts on them of late, but one thing for sure is this is a side, that just won't lay down for anyone, no matter how short handed or banged up they are . Their truly a blue collar team that Bean town can be proud of. With that said, I'm betting they fight til the end here tonight and get us the cover, vs a viable but very inconsistent Bucks team, that looked drained in their game 2 of this series losing in ugly fashion. (120-106). MILWAUKEE is 2-11 ATS in home games off a road loss this season. MILWAUKEE is 9-22 ATS as a home favorite this season.BOSTON is 12-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season. BOSTON is 18-4 ATS L/22 in road games against Central division opponents. MILWAUKEE is 13-22 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season and is 17-31 ATS L/50 when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days . NBA Road teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - off 3 or more consecutive home wins against opponent off a road loss by 10 points or more are 35-7 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Boston to cover |
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04-19-18 | 76ers -2 v. Heat | 128-108 | Win | 100 | 35 h 55 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1 Philadelphia had their 17 game losing streak abruptly end last time out, vs the Heat in game 2 of this series by a 113-103 count as favs, and looked like they had exerted to much energy in their opening play off tilt, exhibiting irrational exuberance. Despite of the young, and very talented Sixer's having limited play off experience , I'm expecting they temper their excitement going forward and pace themselves better. With that said, I'm betting on this talented group to bounce back on the road and notch a victory here in game 3. PHILADELPHIA is 31-13 ATS L/44 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts. MIAMI is 2-12 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season. PHILADELPHIA is 35-21 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points and 25-14 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more. NBA team vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a double digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more are 33-10 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by 4.4 ppg. Play on Philadelphia to cover |
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04-18-18 | Jazz v. Thunder -4 | 102-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 - OKC Leads 1-0 The Utah Jazz played tremendous basketball down the stretch to get into the post season, and were one of the better teams in the 2nd half. They did however , lose their finale, and the first game off this series and its always a concern a team may have peaked to early , and that after that kind of impressive run and a emotional letdown scenario could effect the teams cohesiveness at the worst possible time. You have to remember despite of all the accolades the Jazz have gotten from the media and pundits of late, they did have long stretches during this campaign, where they were unable to garner wins despite of their top tier defense. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City , despite of being chalk full of talent with George, Anthony, and Westbrook, were highly inconsistent this season, but when they did play well, looked like possible championship contenders, as was the case in game 1 of this series, and when they beat the Rockets in their own back yard, 108-102 on April 7 as 4 point dogs and back in late March when they went into Toronto and beat a very good Raptors side by a 132-125 count. From a matchup perspective , many believe that the Jazz, are the superior side, but I'm not one of them, and game 1 was an indicator of this . I feel the Thunder actually matchup very well, vs Utah, especially here on their own home court on a beatable line, especially with the books sticking to guns on the number. Note: Oklahoma City is a perfect 7-0 SU at home in this series over the last few seasons, and have won 11 of the L/13 meetings and the last 4 meetings overall, with two of the last three by DD deficits. In the last game the final 116-108 score was not indicative of how much better the Thunder looked in this matchup. With that said, I'll back the Thunder here at home one more time in this series and hold judgement on backing them on the road depending on the line. UTAH is 5-17 ATS L/22 in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last few seasons. The Utah Jazz are 0-22 ATS L/22 as a dog vs a team that has averaged 45-plus rebounds and more than 38.5 points in the paint. NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - off a road loss against a division rival against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 19-43 ATS L/22 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover |
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04-17-18 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Blazers | 111-102 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 - NOR Leads 1-0 I was very impressed by the way the Pelicans played down the stretch, and was once again impressed by their tenaciousness effort in game 1 of this series , when they pulled off the road upset by a 97-95 score. I do know the Blazers are now in a must win situation ,and the lines-makers are sticking tight to their initial line projections. However, despite of the lines-makers stance I still feel we have value with a underdog that matches up well vs the home favorite. Look for top tier New Orleans' guard Jrue Holiday and forward Anthony Davis to trump Blazers back curt duo of Damian Lilliard and CJ McCollum . NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS in road games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game this season. NEW ORLEANS is 15-6 ATS L/21 in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game.NEW ORLEANS is 27-15 ATS in road games this season. NEW ORLEANS is 17-7 ATS off a road win this season. The Pelicans are 17-0 as a road dog with more than one day of rest after holding their opponent to under 39.5% shooting from the field. NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, on Tuesday nights are 42-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on New Orleans to cover |
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04-17-18 | Bucks +2.5 v. Celtics | 106-120 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
Much to my surprise the Milwaukee Bucks came out and showed me they have some cohunes in game 1 of this series behind Giannis Antetokounmpo (35 points) and Khris Middleton (31). They played soft for much of the season, despite of being a talented group. But now they look like they have suddenly woken up, and are in a fighting mood. That's not a good thing for a banged up Celtics group that bases their current successes on hard work, as their key offensive weapon Kyrie Irving is out of the play offs because of injury. The season has taken it toll on the never say die Celtics, and last time out they exerted a great deal of energy in trying to dispose of the Bucs, despite of finally winning in OT. I'm betting we see the effects of their exhausting work ethic here tonight as they play this tilt with very little gas left in the tank. I know the Bucks were a little sloppy in game 1, but if they clean things up, I won't be surprised if they come out of this with a SU win and more importantly for us a cover. Road team is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings.Underdog is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings MILWAUKEE is 15-4 ATS L/19 off 2 or more consecutive road losses over the last few seasons. BOSTON is 5-15 ATS L20 in home games after playing 2 consecutive home games dating back to last season. BOSTON is 4-13 ATS L/17 in home games after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games. NBA Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MILWAUKEE) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 71-29 L/22 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 72-26 ATS L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Milwaukee to cover |
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04-16-18 | Heat +7 v. 76ers | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 Philadelphia was the hottest team in the NBA down the stretch and have won 17 straight games. However, despite of that my own head to head power rankings suggest that there is value with taking points with a very physical blue collar team, in a play off game vs a side, that I can best describe as very talented but lacking grit and play off experience. The NBA post season can be very different from reg season play, especially from a physical stand point, and that's what I'm betting on tonight .Look for the nasty and tenacious Hassan Whiteside who will get increased minutes and inside presence of 7 footer Kelly Olynyk to be the difference maker in a cover for our chosen side. I know the Sixers came out on fire and took game 1 , but Im betting game 2 will be a different story from a ATS perspective . Heat are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.76ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game , which was the case in game 1 of this series. MIAMI is 24-9 ATS L/33 when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is 11-2 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. MIAMI is 15-4 ATS L/19 as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. The Heat are 19-0 SU/ATS off a loss in which their opponent shot 50% or better from beyond the arc and it is after the All-Star break , which happened in game 1 of this series. Play on the Miami Heat to cover |
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04-15-18 | Jazz v. Thunder -3.5 | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 1 The Utah Jazz played tremendous basketball down the stretch to get into the post season, and were one of the better teams in the 2nd half. They did however , lose their finale, and its always a concern a team may have peaked to early , and that after that kind of impressive run and a emotional letdown scenario could effect the teams cohesiveness at the worst possible time. You have to remember despite of all the accolades the Jazz have gotten from the media and pundits of late, they did have long stretches during this campaign, where they were unable to garner wins despite of their top tier defense. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City , despite of being chalk full of talent with George, Anthony, and Westbrook, were highly inconsistent this season, but when they did play well, looked like possible championship contenders, as was the case when they beat the Rockets in their own back yard, 108-102 on April 7 as 4 point dogs and back in late March when they went into Toronto and beat a very good Raptors side by a 132-125 count. From a matchup perspective , many believe that the Jazz, are the superior side, but I'm not one of them. I feel the Thunder actually matchup very well, vs Utah, especially here on their own home court on a beatable line. Note: Oklahoma City is a perfect 6-0 SU at home in this series over the last few seasons, and have won 10 of the L/12 meetings and the last 3 meetings overall, the last two by DD deficits. UTAH is 5-16 ATS L/21 in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last few seasons. The Jazz were a sub par 20-21 road team this season, while the Thunder played their best hoops at home where they were 27-14. The Utah Jazz are 0-21 ATS L/21 as a dog vs a team that has averaged 45-plus rebounds and more than 38.5 points in the paint NBA Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (UTAH) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a road loss against a division rival are 154-35 L/22 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by 6.9 ppg. NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - off a road loss against a division rival against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 19-42 for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover |
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04-15-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -3.5 | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 1 |
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04-14-18 | Pelicans +5.5 v. Blazers | 97-95 | Win | 100 | 26 h 20 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 New Orleans has roared into the play offs with 5 straight wins, including a 122-98 beat down of San Antonio in the last game of the season. They are currently playing with a lot of confidence and must respected here as underdogs. Pelicans HC Gentry is 17-4 ATS in road games after scoring 120 points or more . Meanwhile, Portland won their L/game of the season but prior to that lost 4 straight, and were playing inconsistent hoops . I'm betting on Pelicans Jrue Holiday and Rajon Rondo clamping down on Lillard and McCollum with a suffocating brand of defense and for this game to be closely contested with the points proving to be golden. Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.Pelicans are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS win.Pelicans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.Trail Blazers are 7-20-2 ATS in their last 29 Conference Quarterfinals games. NEW ORLEANS is 10-2 ATS L/12 versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season. NEW ORLEANS is 23-11 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. NEW ORLEANS is 26-15 ATS in road games this season. Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover |
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04-14-18 | Spurs v. Warriors OVER 210 | 92-113 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 54 m | Show | |
San Antonio's defense did not look good towards the tail end of the season and allowed 105 or more points in 7 off their L/10 games overall including 122 to New Orleans in their season finale. Over is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 road games.Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 Conference Quarterfinals games. Meanwhile, Golden State also struggled on defense for long stretches this season, ranking 18th overall allowing 107.5 ppg . Their saving grace was and always will be their offense , which was ranked first in the league this season (113.5 ppg) , behind the 5th fastest pace ( 99.6). GOLDEN STATE L/20 games when playing against a team with a winning record have seen a combined average of 218.3 ppg go on the board. SAN ANTONIO is 9-0 OVER in road games in April games dating back to last season.GOLDEN STATE is 13-4 OVER L/17 in all playoff games with the total combined average of 225.1 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a playoff game, in the 1rst game of a playoff series are 24-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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04-11-18 | Jazz v. Blazers -2.5 | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
The No. 3 seed in the Western Conference is on the line Wednesday, when the Utah Jazz visit the Portland Trail Blazers. the Jazz have been playing great ball, but "Portland is a really tough place to play," Jazz coach Quin Snyder said during Tuesday's postgame press conference. "It is an important game from a seeding standpoint. So no matter what or how each team has preformed of late, it matters very little in under these circumstances. It must also be noted that the Jazz played last night and really revved things up against the Warriors, beating them by wide DD margin . I'm sure their now on tired legs which is not necessarily a good omen, as they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing with no rest. I'm betting home court advantage will be the difference maker here tonight. PORTLAND is 11-2 ATS L/13 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) and 13-3 ATS L/16 versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots.PORTLAND is 19-6-1 ATS L/26 as a favorite this season and 12-3 ATS L/15 in home games vs. division opponents . Favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. NBA Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 56-9 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by 9.7 ppg. NBA Underdogs (UTAH) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are just 95-151 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Portland Blazers to cover |
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04-11-18 | Nuggets v. Wolves -3 | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
The Denver Nuggets visit the land of lakes this Wednesday night to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves, in a do or die battle that will see the winner advance to the postseason while the loser heads to the wasteland of the offseason . From a matchup perspective, I feel these teams are fairly evenly matched, but home court advantage is definitely important factor that I'm betting favors the Wolves. I also feel strongly that Denver has had to exert a lot of energy in their quest for a post season appearance than the Wolves, and are exhausted entering this Thunder dome confrontation. That was never more evident than in the Nuggets last tilt, when they clawed their way back from a 11-point, second-half deficit and somehow notched a 88-82 win while holding Portland to just 13 points in the fourth quarter thanks to a massive physical assault that I know took its toll on this squad.
NBA Underdogs vs the money line (DENVER) - in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (102 or more PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 90 points or less are 6-48 SU L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 85% for bettors losing SU by 9.3 ppg. NBA Underdogs (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 95-151 ATS L/22 seasons for a 62% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Minnesota Wolves to cover |
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04-10-18 | Warriors v. Jazz -7 | 79-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
The Golden State Warriors are limping into the post season and not looking as cohesive as they have in the past, as is evident by losing 9 of their L/16 games overall, and have failed to cover 13 of their L/19 overall, thanks to a lack of defensive prowess and recently allowed 126 points in back-to-back losses to Indiana and New Orleans. . Meanwhile, the Utah Jazz have really progressed this season, and rank 13th in the NBA in offensive efficiency (108.5) and lead the league in defensive efficiency (97.9) since mid-January. In recent head to head matchups vs the Dubs the Jazz have produced two straight lopsided beat downs including delivering a 129-99 proverbial boot in the face in the champs last visit to Salt Lake City on Jan. 27. A repeat is not out of the question. The Jazz despite of a guaranteed play off spot can still move up and grab the No.3 seed from Portland who are just one game ahead of them in the standings, and are a viable betting option here at home with momentum and motivation as contributing positive factors. I know its never easy betting against the Warriors, but right now they look asleep at the proverbial wheel and are playing with little or no urgency as a group. GOLDEN STATE is 2-13 ATS L/15 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) .UTAH is 12-3 ATS L/15 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game . ( Utah 112 Opp 99.6) NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a road win against a division rival are 2-28 L/21 seasons with the average margin loss coming by 9.9 ppg. NBA team (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, after a cover as a double digit favorite are 20-55 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 73% for bettors on the blind. Play on the Utah Jazz to cover |
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04-09-18 | Thunder v. Heat +3 | 115-93 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
The Miami Heat enter this game off a ugly loss vs the NY Knicks last time out, and will now be very motivated to bounce back vs the Oklahoma City as they need to get some momentum going before the play offs begin and also get redemption for a loss where they overlooked their opponent. Add to that the Heat have revenge on board for a loss to the Thunder, 105-99 as 6 point road dogs earlier this season and you have a viable home dog to back. Meanwhile, the Thunder could easily find themselves in a letdown situation after exerting a lot of energy in a 108-102 upset win vs the Houston Rockets last time out, and could see their flow interrupted by the Heat side, that has the ability to play a tough physical style of defensive ball. Note: The Thunder are just 3-5 SU L/8 overall and have proven to be highly inconsistent this season despite of their talent levels. Thunder are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win. Heat are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss. MIAMI is 11-3 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-25 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season and just 7-16 ATS ( when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season.OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-21 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season. NBA team vs the money line (MIAMI) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a double digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more 43-18 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home underdogs (MIAMI) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 54-19 ATS L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Miami Heat to cover |
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04-08-18 | Magic +13 v. Raptors | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
The Raptors (57-22) conclude their home schedule Sunday when they play the Orlando Magic (24-55) at the Air Canada Centre. Last time out the Magic were embarrassed losing to the Charlotte Hornets by a 137-100 count on Friday night. They had 4G league players in the lineup, and the kids did not take advantage of those minutes, and HC Vogel was very upset, saying they missed their opportunity. QUOTE:"Our four young guys, they got opportunities to play extended minutes and earn jobs and make a name for themselves, and they did not take advantage of that opportunity tonight," Vogel said. END QUOTE: I know Orlando does not have much to play for, but pros don't like to be embarrassed , and withAaron Gordon and Nikola Vusevic upgraded to probable for this contest the Magic must be considered viable underdogs vs a team more interested in staying healthy then delivering a beat dwn vs a downtrodden side that I'm sure their overlooking. Magic are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Magic are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games.Magic are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 Magic are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Orlando is 2-1 SU L/3 visits to Toronto. The Raptors are 0-15 ATS at home off a win as a home favorite when they allowed fewer than 90 points in each of their last two games , losing SU up 10 times, with the largest margin of victory coming by no more than 6 points. NBA Home favorites (TORONTO) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 9-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Orlando to cover |
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04-08-18 | Pistons -5 v. Grizzlies | 117-130 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Both Detroit and their hosts today the Memphis Grizzlies are out of the play offs. The difference between both sides, is that Memphis is banged up and an overall downtrodden group and looked like they have mailed it completely of late losing 4 straight , with 3 by ugly DD scores, which includes a sleep 94-92 home loss vs lowly Sacramento last time out. |
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04-08-18 | Pacers -2 v. Hornets | 123-117 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
The play off bound Indiana Pacers are very under rated and are very dangerous according to my power rankings and must be respected here as short favorites on the road. With the Cleveland Cavaliers a possible play off matchup for them , I'm betting they will want to build positive momentum going into the post season and will be ready to run and gun vs a very inconsistent below .500 Charlotte Hornets side today. Pacers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs. Eastern Conference.Hornets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.Hornets are 8-21-3 ATS in their last 32 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. INDIANA is 9-1 ATS n road games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons ( They lost to the explosive Raptors last time out, playing back to backs a night after beating the Warriors) INDIANA is 11-3 ATS vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents this season.INDIANA is 11-2 ATS in April games over the last 2 seasons. CHARLOTTE is 1-8 ATS as a home underdog this season. CHARLOTTE is 9-24 ATS as an underdog this season.The Hornets are 1-16 ATS/0-17 SU as a dog off a road win when they allowed 100+ points in each of their last two games. NBA Home underdogs vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 30-95 L/22 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home underdogs (CHARLOTTE) - after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 38-85 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover |
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04-07-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors -7 | 126-120 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
Two teams that could be potential first-round opponents in the upcoming NBA playoffs go head to head this Saturday night when the New Orleans Pelicans visit the Golden State Warriors in Oakland . With that said, I expect the Warriors to primed and ready to send a message their visiting opponents here today before the post season starts. I know the defending champs have not looked as explosive as they usually do of late, but now as the play offs approach I expect we will see them amp up into top gear. Yes, Steph curry is out, but this Warriors team even with him missing must be respected, especially against a side on tired legs after playing last night in Phoenix winning 122-103. Note: The Pelicans have lost three straight to Golden State this season by an average of 11 points and have lost 10 straight meetings in this series. Also NBA teams (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, after a cover as a double digit favorite are just 19-55 ATS L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games are 49-4 SU L/22 seasons winning by an average of 11 ppg. NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite, second half of the season are 34-4 L/5 seasons winning by an average of 10.6 ppg. ( Underrated/Dangerous Indiana upset the Warriors last time out) NBA Home teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 46-5 winning by an average of 10.5 ppg. Play on Golden State to cover |
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04-07-18 | Nuggets +1 v. Clippers | 134-115 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
Denver enters this game having won 4 straight games and 6 of their L/8 overall.Right now, The Nuggets remain in ninth spot in their post season chase because the Timberwolves own tiebreakers over them. But win the last three games, including the season finale in Minnesota next week? The Nuggets are in the playoffs. With that said, you can bet the Rocky Mountain hoops crew will leave everything on the floor tonight as they cannot afford a loss. Meanwhile, the LA Clippers have lost 3 of their L/4 games and most probably out of post season contention and also look to be at a disadvantage today, as Danilo Gallinari (hand), Milos Teodosic (foot), Jawun Evans (groin), Avery Bradley (groin) and Patrick Beverley (knee) are all banged-up. I'm betting on the hungrier side with play off aspirations coming out of this with a victory. Play on Denver to cover |
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04-06-18 | Heat v. Knicks +9 | 98-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
The NY Knicks have had another below .500 season, but believe it or not they have actually not been that bad at home overall, going 18-20 SU as hosts . Meanwhile, their guests the Miami Heat have had a decent season, and are play off bound, but are just 18-22 SU on the road during their campaign, and find themselves more interested in staying healthy than beating up on a downtrodden side. I know the Knicks have looked lifeless of late and have lost six of seven, but I expect them to look for a little bit of redemption after being embarrassed in their worst offensive output of the season in Tuesday's 97-73 home loss to Orlando. The Knicks were booed off the court in that above mentioned tilt, and knowing how pros don't like to be embarrassed I expect a little bit of bounce back here against a Miami side that they have revenge for after being thumped by them the last time they played in South Florida a couple of weeks ago. So lets plug our noses, close our eyes and just pull the proverbial trigger on the Knicks to cover vs what should be a disinterested Heat. MIAMI is 2-11 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season.Heat are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. NYK HC Hornacek is 38-20 ATS in his career after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. NBA Underdogs (NEW YORK) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 28-7 ATS L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. NBA team vs the money line (NEW YORK) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a home favorite are 28-16 L/21 seasons for a 63% SU conversion rate. Play on the NY Knicks to cover |
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04-06-18 | Heat v. Knicks UNDER 211 | 98-122 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
Miami is play off bound, and will want to sharpen up on their top tier brand of defensive basketball. I expect they will be very focused on being defensively responsible here this evening and for them not to be interested in a run and gun style of play, as they look to stay fresh for the post season. The Heat are 4th in in the league in points allowed and 27th in PACE. Meanwhile, NYK, despite of wanting to push for a more wide open attack tonight after suffering a ugly 97-73 set back last time out, will still have to contend with very good D, in a game I'm betting stays on the low side of the number. |
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04-05-18 | Nets v. Bucks -8.5 | 119-111 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
The Bucks have clinched a play off spot and are feeling pretty good about themselves right now, but can still grab a higher seeding with some late season wins , so a motivated effort should be expected. Meanwhile, the Nets are 28 games under .500 and have nothing left to play for, except a higher lottery pick, and currently look to be in full tank mode after a lackluster 121-95 loss at Philadelphia on Tuesday where they looked asleep at the proverbial wheel and now should be expected to provide little fight tonight on the road in Wisconsin. The Bucks have had their way with the Nets recently winning both meetings this season by lopsided DD scores, and have garnered 10 straight wins this series, and I'm betting one more victory and cover are on tonight's agenda. The Nets are 0-12 ATS /SU losing SU by 15.3 ppg as a road dog off a 10+ loss facing an opponent averaging less than 40 rebounds per game like the Bucks . |
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04-04-18 | 76ers -115 v. Pistons | 115-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
The visiting Philadelphia 76ers and their hosts the Detroit Pistons are currently playing at a very high level entering this tilt. The young men from Philly are 10-0 L/10 and have covered 9 straight , with the Motown crew having won 7 of their L/8 and covered all 8. Tonight in a head on collision I like the travellers to get the job done vs a side that needs a win desperately to keep their extremely slim play off hopes alive. It must be noted that the Pistons have exerted a great deal of energy lately to keep their dreams alive, and despite of 2 days rest could easily fade here against a very well conditioned side. Philadelphia took each of the first three meetings, including a 114-78 crusher Jan. 5 at home and its obvious matchup well against the Pistons, and they get my backing again. PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season. PHILADELPHIA is 13-4 ATS L/17 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts . DETROIT is 16-33 ATS L/49 when the line is +3 to -3 over dating back to last season. NBA team vs the money line (DETROIT) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road wins are just 30-49 L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 62% for bettors on the blind. Play on Philadelphia to cover |
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04-03-18 | Blazers v. Mavs +8.5 | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
The Portland Trail Blazers have already clinched a postseason spot and now staying healthy will be a priority, which will translate into what I'm betting will be a slight lack of motivational effort and extra drive which will help us cover the number with Dallas this evening. It must be noted that despite of Portland's very explosive March where they went 12-3 SU, they have shown a reversion to the norm, especially with their formerly hot down town shooting, and enter this game having cooled down considerably now converting a league-worst 27.9 percent over the last six games. Also with road games coming up against San Antonio and Houston, a look ahead situation is not out of the question for the Blazers, and gives further credence to my home underdog stance this evening. DALLAS is 29-17 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. DALLAS is 21-11 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or les turnovers/game this season.DALLAS is 13-4 ATS L/17 in home games against Northwest division opponents. DALLAS is 24-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. NBA Home teams (DALLAS) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 38-15 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.( Portland beat Dallas as road chalk 107-93 back on Jan 26 th) Play on Dallas to cover |
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04-03-18 | Warriors +4.5 v. Thunder | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
The Warriors remain a little banged up but most of the their key cogs like Durant, Thompson, Green are expected to play tonight with only Steph Curry on the sidelines. I know the Warriors don't have alot to play for from a standings perspective as they are guaranteed the No. seed in the West, but cohesiveness now becomes a question mark, because of a late season tumble because of injuries, and lackluster play, and its now imperative they get into a rhythm before the play offs begin. I also know Oklahoma State will be sky high to take down the Warriors tonight, but I'm betting that will not be an easy feat , as the Dubs would love nothing more than to send a message to opponents before the post season arrives. OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-17 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season( Golden State won the last meeting back on Feb 24, 112-80) . OKLAHOMA CITY is 23-39 ATS as a favorite this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 14-24 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. NBA team vs the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - after scoring 105 points or more in a win over a division rival, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 27-5 L/21 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 41-82 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Golden State Warriors |
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04-01-18 | Pistons -1 v. Nets | 108-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
The Pistons play off hopes are slim, as they are 5 games behind Milwaukee for the final spot in the East, but they still have not given up the chase for the post season, with six games remaining and have won 4 straight and are 6-1 in its last seven games and enter this tilt vs Brooklyn with a full head of steam. Detroit during their current hot run are averaging 109.1 points, shooting 46.6 percent and getting 49.4 rebounds while limiting their turnovers ( 11.9 ppg). I know the Nets are playing decently of late, but my own power rankings and player vs player and system vs system matchups suggest they do not matchup well vs this type of team and are on tired legs after playing last night and at a dsiadvantage. Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Pistons are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.Nets are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. NBA Road favorites vs. the money line (DETROIT) - with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season, on Sunday games are 34-4 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. NBA All teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (BROOKLYN) - off a road win by 3 points or less, playing on back-to-back days are 5-28 L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 85% for bettors. Road favorites (DETROIT) - a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team, on Sunday games are 30-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Detroit to cover |
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04-01-18 | 76ers -3 v. Hornets | 119-102 | Win | 100 | 4 h 36 m | Show | |
The Philadelphia 76ers enter this game vs their hosts Charlotte with a full head of steam this Sunday afternoon. The Sixer's have won 9 in a row and will be out to sweep the season series vs a side that they matchup very well against as was evident by winning all 3 previous games this season by double digits. Charlotte has lost 2 straight and failed to cover 3 straight and ar eon tired legs after playing last night , which adds to their fade material status today. The 76ers outscored the Hornets 102-51 on 3-pointers in the last two meetings, going 34 of 77 from beyond the arc and a repeat performance is a high probability outcome in this spot considering both sides current form. PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season. PHILADELPHIA is 25-6 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season. CHARLOTTE is 6-25 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. CHARLOTTE is 2-13 ATS L/15 as a home underdog . NBA Home teams vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more, playing on back-to-back days are 7-36 L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 84% for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by 7.7 ppg. NBA Favorites vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - after successfully covering the spread in 6 or more consecutive games, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days are 26-4 L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by more than 11 ppg. Play on Philadelphia to cover |
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03-31-18 | Warriors v. Kings +8.5 | 112-96 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
The defending NBA Champion Golden State Warriors are still a little banged up, and on a current 3 game losing streak. Their not as cohesive as usual, and playing uninspired basketball. Can the Warriors turn the switch and go into over drive. Yes, off course they can, but I'm betting the goal right now is to remain healthy heading towards the play offs and to stave of fatigue. With that said, if the Dubs win tonight, I'm betting they do it without going into top gear, and for the hardworking young Kings to play this game like its their own version of a championship game, which makes getting points here a viable wagering opportunity. GOLDEN STATE is 30-42 ATS in all games this season.SACRAMENTO is 17-7 ATS L/24 as a home underdog of 6.5 to 12 points dating back to last season. Warriors are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 days rest.Kings are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Warriors are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent off a close home loss by 3 points or less are 3-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 15-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate on the blind for bettors. Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover |
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03-31-18 | Hornets v. Wizards -5 | 93-107 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
Star G John Wall is expected to return to the Washington Wizards today against Charlotte, after a lengthy absence because of injury . This I'm betting will rejuvenate a sometimes unmotivated group of Wizards. They can clinch a play off spot if they get a win today and also get revenge for a Feb 23rd loss here at home by a ugly 122-105 count. I'm betting the Wizards get their payback. Charlotte has lost 6 of their L/9 on the road and have failed to cover 20 of their L/34 road games this season.Hornets are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Hornets are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Washington. WASHINGTON is 9-0 ATS L/9 in home games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last few seasons.( lost to the Pistons last time out as 2.5 point road chalk-102-93) CHARLOTTE is 9-22 ATS as an underdog this season with 7 point deficit over that period. NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite, second half of the season are 33-4 SU L/5 seasons for a89% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by more than 10.5 ppg. NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in March games are 45-2 L/5 seasons for a 96% conversion rate for bettors with the average victory coming by 10 ppg. Play on Washington to cover |
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03-30-18 | Clippers v. Blazers -6 | 96-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
Portland was upset last time out vs the lowly Memphis Grizzlies , thanks in part to being without Damian Lillard (personal) and most probably becasue they over looked their bottoming feeding opponent. Now in bounce back mode, after that last embarrasement, I'm betting we see the Blazers at their very best behind new father, and team leader D.Lillard. (The Blazers star missed the last game so he could be with his wife for the birth of their child. ) The Blazers have played ther best hoops at home this season where they are 25-13 SU, and matchup very well vs this current group of Clippers, as was evident in a recent 122-109 win at Staples back on the 18th of March as 1.5 point dogs.. Yes, I know the Clippers have won 3 straight, but all good runs must eventually come to end , and that what I expect happens tonight.
PORTLAND is 11-2 ATS in March games this season. PORTLAND is 14-2 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game.PORTLAND is 22-8 ATS L/30 versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game. PORTLAND is 10-0 ATS L/10 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%). NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, in March games are 44-2 SU L/5 seasons for a 96% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined win coming by 10 ppg. NBA team (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, after a cover as a double digit favorite are just 19-54 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors on the blind. Play on Portland to cover |
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03-29-18 | Pacers v. Kings +8.5 | 106-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
Sacramento has been off for a couple days since getting stepped on by Dallas as chalk in their last home tilt on Tuesday . Their coach Dave Joerger was really peed off after that tilt as his players looked inattentive in that game, during what has been a bizarre week of riots in Sacramento after another deadly police shooting. The HC appreciates the stance his players have taken to support the protesters, but has reminded his men that they must be professionals. QUOTE: "We respect that, but we've still got to come in, be professionals, and bring the same juice, the same energy every night." END QUOTE: Kings are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference.Kings are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Central.Underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (SACRAMENTO) - off a upset loss as a favorite, in March games are 105-41 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. Sacramento Kings to cover |
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03-28-18 | Celtics +7.5 v. Jazz | 97-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Boston might be banged up but they have proved a resilient bunch and better than the sum of their parts over and over again this season, and must never be underestimated. QUOTE: The way a team plays as a whole determines its success. You may have the greatest bunch of individual stars in the world, but if they don’t play together, the club won’t be worth a dime.” Babe Ruth :END QUOTE Utah beat Boston earlier this season, and short handed or not the Celtics have revenge on board, and a tenacious never say attitude to go along with it and is 14-3 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season. BOSTON is 25-11 ATS in road games this season and have won 6 of their L/7 away from home. Boston buys into a team concept that's what makes them so good. You might not always see it in the final score, but you can definitely see it on the floor and with their work ethic game in and game out. Taking point with them, even when their banged up is not reaching and a viable investment opportunity. BOSTON is 21-12 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. BOSTON is 14-4 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent this season. NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a road win are 90-51 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. NBA team vs the money line (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off 3 or more consecutive road wins 51-20 L/22 seasons for a 73% SU conversion rate for bettors. Play on Boston Celtics to cover |
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03-28-18 | Blazers v. Grizzlies +6.5 | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
Memphis upset Northwest-contending Minnesota 101-93 on the road Monday night and showed some fight despite of their imminent lottery pick situation . With Portland playing the second of back to backs this Wednesday on tired legs, and most likely over looking the lowly the Grizzlies another possible upset could be in the cards and more importantly a cover. It must also be noted that after losing 2 consecutive games , Portland has pulled out two back to back wins of less than 5 points , and are less cohesive then they were during a 12 game win streak. MEMPHIS is 48-29 L/76 ATS in home games off an upset win as a road underdog. Injury update. D Lillard is expected to miss this game vs Memphis. NBA Underdogs (MEMPHIS) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off an upset win as a road underdog are 106-66 ATS L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MEMPHIS) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off 2 consecutive road wins by 5 points or less are 25-10 SU L/21 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. ( Memphis lost both games in this series at home back in November) Play on Memphis to cover |
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03-27-18 | Bucks +3.5 v. Clippers | 98-105 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
These teams played last week with the Clippers pulling of the road win, now in the rematch the Bucks will primed to pull off upset in revenge mode. With both teams seeking a play off appearance you can bet this will be a battle, which makes taking points here a viable wagering option. Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Clippers are 0-12 ATS/SU with rest off a win as a dog when they are facing a team that is averaging less than 40 rebounds per game like Milwaukee. NBA team vs the money line (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off a close home win by 3 points or less are 41-16 SU L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - off a home win, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 33-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Milwaukee Bucks to cover |
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03-27-18 | Mavs v. Kings -2 | 103-97 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
Dallas enters this game in full lottery pick tank mode, as is evident by a current 5 game losing streak. Meanwhile, Sacramento is 6-7 SU (9-4 ATS) in their L/13 games, and still playing spirited basketball. From a power ranking perspective my numbers suggest the Kings are the superior side here on their own home floor. In other words the lesser of two evils resides with the hosts. DALLAS is 1-10 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. The Kings are 13-0/SU ATS covering by as a home favorite with less than two days rest after their opponent shot over 50% from the field. DALLAS is 4-12 ATS versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. Sacramento has won 3 of the L/4 games here in Sacramento. Play on Sacramento Kings to cover |
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03-27-18 | Blazers v. Pelicans -1 | 107-103 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
The Pelicans (43-31) on 2 days rest will be rejuvenated and primed to take on the visiting Portland Trail Blazers (45-28) on Tuesday night at the Smoothie King Center. The Pelicans have won four of the last five meetings against the Trail Blazers, including the last two -- a 123-116 victory on Dec. 2 at Portland and a 119-113 win on Jan. 12 in New Orleans. From a power rankings perspective, despite of the Blazers red hot form the Pelicans match up well against this team in a systems analysis and get the nod here on their own home floor. Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 ATS versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season.NEW ORLEANS is 21-8 ATS in home games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days . NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PORTLAND) - revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off a road loss against a division rival are 13-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on New Orleans to cover |
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03-27-18 | Spurs v. Wizards +1.5 | 106-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
The Wizards are struggling and need wins badly and are currently one game ahead of the Milwaukee Bucks and 1 1/2 games ahead of the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference . Tonight I'm betting the Wizards will be ready for a San Antonio team playing much better basketball of late. The Spurs despite of their improved play, had a 6-0 home stand go flat when they went on the road and lost to a inconsistent Milwaukee team last time out for their 4th straight road loss. It must also be noted that the Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. The Spurs have looked like two different teams, when playing as host and than as visitors which must be worrisome for HC Popovich and company. After getting blind sided by the lowly NY Knicks last time out, I'm betting this sometimes unmotivated group of Wizards has some extra jump here tonight and take out the Spurs in this spot. WASHINGTON is 36-20 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last few seasons. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, with a winning record on the season are just 36-73 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Washington Wizards to cover |
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03-26-18 | Nuggets +5.5 v. 76ers | 104-123 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
Denver is seven games above .500, and are still not guaranteed a play off position, and are one game behind Utah in the Western Conference Northwest Division. Needless to say every game is of the utmost importance . This kind of desperate side that validates a betting stance. I know Philly has been hot, but Denver is no pushovers and must be respected here with so much on the line when it comes to post season implications. Add to that the Nuggets have revenge on board for a loss at home to the 76ers back on Dec 30th of this season. DENVER is 15-6 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season Note: The 76ers have lost 5 of their L/7 SU vs above .500 opposition. Nuggets are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. 76ers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.Nuggets are 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Philadelphia. PHILADELPHIA is 11-23 ATS L/34 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season. NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a road win are 90-50 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Denver to cover |
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03-25-18 | Jazz v. Warriors +6 | 110-91 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
Utah has not looked all that cohesive in their last few games losing twice, once to lowly Atlanta and in OT last time out vs San Antonio and in the one victory they looked far from dominating vs a Dallas squad in tank mode. In this spot vs a banged up Golden State team, the lines-makers have decided they deserve to be more than 5 point road favorites. But I'm betting that number is a little bloated, considering how deep the Warriors truly are. With Thompson, Durant, Curry out of the lineup the Warriors can no longer be considered super human, but now just a average to below average side. But when co-coordinating similar lines, and comparing them to my own power rankings , we still have value with a home pup with revenge on board for a ugly 129-99 loss earlier this season to todays visitor Utah. Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.Jazz are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. Western Conference. Jazz are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Golden State. UTAH is 14-27 ATS L/41 in road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last few seasons. Note: Warriors Draymond Green is upgraded to probable Sunday. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7 or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 48-6 SU L/21 seasons for 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Golden State to cover |
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03-24-18 | Hornets -115 v. Mavs | 102-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
Charlotte has looked explosive at times this season, and crapped the bed on other occasions. But you can see their abilities when their in a flow, and after back to back wins vs Brooklyn and 61 point margin of victory vs Memphis (140-79) behind the resurgent Dwight Howard, this is now a viable team to back. With that said, I'm betting another struggling side like Dallas on a current 4 game losing streak does not pose much of a challenge to them in their current form. Let's not forget Dallas owners Mark Cubans indirect comment that he thinks his team should go into tank mode for a better lottery choice, and we have a situation to bet into that favors the streaking visitor. Add to that the Charlotte has revenge and motivation on board for a home loss they suffered to the Mavericks earlier this season Injury update: Dallas key cog G Denis Smith is playing at less than 100% with various nagging injuries and may miss tonight's game. DALLAS is 2-12 ATS off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog this season. Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.Mavericks are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. NBA Road favorites (CHARLOTTE) - off a home win, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 27 -8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Favorites vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - after allowing 80 points or less against opponent after allowing 115 points or more are 36-4 SU L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Charlotte Hornets to win |
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03-24-18 | Wolves v. 76ers UNDER 222.5 | 108-120 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Both Minnesota and Philadelphia are playing quality hoops at the moment, and with the play offs approaching will be concentrating on being a little more diligent in the defensive end of the court and in transition. I know both these teams can light up the scoreboard in a hurry , but with Jimmy Butler on the sidelines with an injury for the Wolves, and this being their 5th game in 8 days, I'm betting Minnesota won't be as fluid as the linesmakers expect vs staunch Philly D . It must also be noted that the 76ers are also in tired legs as they play their 3rd game in 5 night. These scheduling anomalies I'm betting effect both sides offensive output here today, making this a viable under wager. Minnesota is 24th in the league in PACE. Philadelphia is ranked 4th in PACE but are ranked 4th in defensive rating and are a highly under rated defensive side. PHILADELPHIA is 22-13 UNDER L/35 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season with a combined average score of 211.1 ppg scored.PHILADELPHIA is 14-4 UNDER L/18 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season with a combined average of 204.6 ppg scored. HC Brown is 10-1 UNDER versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots - 2nd half of the season as the coach of the Sixer's with a combined average of 202 ppg scored. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHILADELPHIA) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, in March games are 40-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MINNESOTA/PHILADELPHIA) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins are 140-50 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MINNESOTA) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive win are 44-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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03-23-18 | Celtics +7 v. Blazers | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
Portland had their 13 game win streak ended last time out by a 115-111 count vs the Houston Rockets , and will now be in an emotional letdown spot here this evening vs the visiting Boston Celtics. I know the Blazers have revenge on board for a loss in Boston last month, in a hotly contested affair that ended with a buzzer beater, but getting the energy needed to cover vs a hard working Celtics group will not come easily after the war they just went through vs the Rockets. I know Boston is banged up and Kyrie Irving is out, but this Beantown crew is deeper than many think, as was evident in a 100-99 win vs the red hot Oklahoma City Thunder in their last trip to the hardwood as 5 point home pups. Note: BOSTON is 13-4 ATS L/17 off an upset win as an underdog.
BOSTON is 13-3 ATS as an underdog this season.Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Northwest.Celtics are 26-10-2 ATS in their last 38 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Celtics are 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Portland. NBA team vs the money line (BOSTON) - in a game involving two good three point shooting teams (36.5%or better) after 42+ games, cold shooting team - 3 straight games making 42% or less of their shots are 22-12 SU L/21 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors with the average deficit of those tilts ringing in a 2.8 ppg. NBA Favorites (PORTLAND) - an excellent offensive team (102 PPG or better) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 60-109 ATS L/5 seasons for go against 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Boston Celtics to cover |
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03-22-18 | Hawks v. Kings -2 | 90-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Atlanta enters this game off a 99-94 win vs Utah Jazz on Tuesday. Their were a few factors at work in that win, but the Hawks overall ugly record speaks for itself, and those types of performances are not consistent . With that said, I now expect a emotional letdown situation to effect the Hawks in this spot vs the Sacramento Kings. I know both teams are in tank mode, but Atlanta smashed Sacramento 126-80 at home on Nov. 15, and I'm betting the Kings will have a little bit of extra energy in the tank tonight in payback mode. ATLANTA is 9-23 ATS in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last few seasons. Sacramento has won and covered the L/2 meetings here in California's capital. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - in non-conference games, off a huge upset win as an underdog of 10 points or more are 5-27 SU L/5 seasons for a 85% go against conversion rate for bettors. Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Hawks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record .Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southeast. Kings are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Eastern Conference. Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. NBA Favorites (SACRAMENTO) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off a road win are 144-66 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover |
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03-21-18 | Clippers v. Bucks -5 | 127-120 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
The LA Clippers looked exhausted last night in a DD 123-109 loss to Minnesota and are on very, very, very tired legs entering this tilt vs Milwaukee this Wednesday night on a 4 game losing streak. With this being their 5th away game in 8 nights their exhausted as they allowed 120+ points for the third consecutive time . . Last night I advised we back the Wolves, and tonight I'm recommending we do the same by backing the Bucks. The key here is burnout, and the Clippers are exhibiting signs of classic work place fatigue. LA CLIPPERS are 3-11 ATS after allowing 120 points or more this season.Clippers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Milwaukee has won both meetings recent meetings in this series, home and away. NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread against opponent cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread are 23-57 ATS L/5 seasons for ago against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Milwaukee to cover |
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03-21-18 | Raptors v. Cavs -1.5 | 129-132 | Win | 100 | 3 h 48 m | Show | |
The Raptors smashed the Cavs, the three-time-defending champions in the East, their worst loss of the season when they beat Cleveland 133-99 on Jan. 11 and now payback and some measured respect is on the line in the rematch for LeBron James and company. James is playing great hoops of late Love is back in the lineup , and even Tristan Thompson (sprained right ankle) and Rodney Hood (lower back strain) were upgraded to questionable for Wednesday's game, which has me coming in late here to lay down some cash on the Cavs. Note: The Raptors have looked a little tired of late, and played last night which should effect their energy levels late in this game when things count most. Raptors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Raptors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 0 days rest. Cleveland is 7-1 SU L/8 at home in this series. NBA Favorites (CLEVELAND) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more against opponent off a road win are 114-66 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors.Raptors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. NBA Underdogs vs the money line (TORONTO) - in a game involving two below average defensive teams (102 PPG or more) after 42+ games, after allowing 90 points or less are 43-7 SU L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Cleveland to cover |
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03-20-18 | Clippers v. Wolves -3 | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
The LA Clippers are on very tired legs entering this tilt vs Minnesota this Tuesday night. In their last game on Sunday... back home in Los Angeles they played their third contest in three cities in four nights and now this will be their 4 away game in 6 nights, which I am betting will effect their play here this evening. Yes, Minnesota will play without key cog Jimmy Butler, but their still plenty of fight and talent in this this lineup and their more than capable of snatching a win in this spot at home where they are 26-9 this season. Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Northwest.Clippers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings. MINNESOTA is 36-20 ATS L/56 versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots. NBA Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 53-7 SU L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with the combined average of victory coming by 10 ppg. Play on Minnesota Wolves to cover |
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03-20-18 | Thunder v. Celtics +4.5 | 99-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
The Oklahoma City Thunder may find themselves in a precarious letdown spot here this Tuesday night in Boston as they visit the Celtics after a very hard fought win vs the Toronto Raptors last time out that ended the Raptors 11 game win streak. I watched a last part of that tilt and was a grueling affair. Meanwhile the Celtics have won their last two games against the Thunder, including a 101-84 victory on Nov. 3 at Oklahoma City and despite of some injuries matchup well against the Thunder. I know that the Thunder are streaking but from a ATS perspective, they don't deal well with success as they are just 1-13 ATS L/14 in road games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread and are fade material here at 4 point or more chalk. OKLAHOMA CITY is 14-23 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-19 ATS ( revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite this season. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60% ) are 44-5 SU L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Boston Celtics to cover |
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03-19-18 | Grizzlies +6.5 v. Nets | 115-118 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
The Memphis Grizzlies have had a horrendous season, but are off a win vs Dallas last time out, which ended a 19 game losing streak. The Grizzlies despite of their failures have remained fairly competitive and saw 10 of those 19 losses come by single digits , and are more than capable of covering again vs a inconsistent Brooklyn Nets side that has lost 12 of their L/15 overall, and has lost 22 of their 34 homes games this season. Memphis has won and covered their L/2 trips to Brooklyn. Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.Nets are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. NBA Underdogs (MEMPHIS) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset win as an underdog are 90-50 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Memphis to cover |
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03-18-18 | Blazers v. Clippers -2 | 122-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
The red hot Portland Trail Blazers enter into tonights LA game vs the Clippers on Sunday night with big targets on their backs after notching 12 consecutive victories. With the Blazers also eyeing big upcoming tilts vs Houston and the Boston Celtics they may not be completely focused here which could I'm betting result in a negative effort vs a team primed to grab a victory and end their opponents win streak. It must be noted that Los Angeles turned it over 23 times in a sloppy 121-113 setback at Oklahoma City on Friday and are now 1 1/2 games out of a playoff spot and desperate for a win. The Clippers are 7-1 L/8 ATS off a loss.
NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PORTLAND) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 16-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 72% for bettors. Play on the LA Clippers |
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03-17-18 | Hornets -6.5 v. Knicks | 101-124 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Charlotte's Hornets star Dwight Howard enters this game on fire , playing some of his best basketball in years with three 30-point games in the last 10 days, including a 33-point performance in a 129-117 win over his former team, the Atlanta Hawks. Tonight I'm betting he will be the catalyst behind what is a now an explosive Charlotte offense that can easily take advantage of a team that has lost 9 straight and 17 of their L/18 games overall and playing a lot of young players. NEW YORK is 9-21 ATS L/30 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. Knicks are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.Knicks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games. NBA Favorites (CHARLOTTE) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 29-5 ATS l/21 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Charlotte Hornets to cover |
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03-17-18 | Rockets v. Pelicans +7.5 | 107-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
One of Houston's three losses since Jan. 6 was a 115-113 setback at New Orleans on Jan. 26 and now the teams play again. Houston is off clinching the division title last time out, on Thursday and could now be in a letdown spot vs a side that actually matches up quite well against them as has been evident by recent meetings. I know New Orleans has struggled a bit over tier last few games, but taking on this type of top tier side I'm betting will bring out the best them. Pelicans are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 and get the nod getting points here this evening. Rockets are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings in New Orleans.Underdog is 20-9-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 44-9 SU L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on New Orleans to cover |
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03-16-18 | Clippers +5 v. Thunder | 113-121 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
The Oklahoma City Thunder have made a habit of beating up on lower tier teams, which is good as their taking care of business when they need to but, they have struggled against better teams. . Since Feb. 1, the Thunder are just 2-6 against teams with better-than-.500 records, beating only Golden State on the road and the Spurs at home. Tonight they go against another above .500 opponent, the LA Clippers a team that desperately needs win to get into the play offs as they are on the bubble at the moment. Los Angeles has won 11 of their last 16 to stay in playoff contention and must not be underestimated in their current desperate form. Note: The Thunder could be without Center Steven Adams and George who were both limited in Thursday's practice and both are listed as questionable. If they do play they will be less than 100%,giving a key advantage to the Clippers. LA CLIPPERS are 12-4 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.Clippers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.LA CLIPPERS are 11-2 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.LA CLIPPERS are 9-1 ATS on Friday nights this season. The Thunder are 0-12 ATS L/12 failing to cover by 9.75 ppg and 1-11 with that win coming by just 1 point when the line is within 3 of pick off a win as a road favorite in which their high scorer had at least ten more points than their next highest scorer. Play on the LA Clippers to cover |
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03-16-18 | Clippers v. Thunder UNDER 223.5 | 113-121 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Both these sides have played some fairly high scoring back and forth games of late, but the Clippers still key on defense to get where they need to go, and have seen 3 of their L/4 stay under the total . The average combined score of the Clippers road games clicks in at around 216 ppg. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City also has been running and gunning on a consistent basis, but because of this the lines makers are attaching some slightly bloated Totals to their tilts which makes for value when looking at the under as is evident by 4 of their L/5 home tilts failing to eclipse the number. The Thunders home games have seen a combined average score of 209.6 ppg scored behind the 20th ranked pace in the league and the 8th best defensive rating. My projections make this Total closer to 219 which gives us value on the under. OKLAHOMA CITY is 41-27 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record dating back to last season with a combined average score of 211.3 ppg scored.OKLAHOMA CITY is 22-11 UNDER L/33 against Pacific division opponents with a combined average score of 213.1 ppg scored. The Thunder are 0-20 UNDER at home with more than one day of rest when they won as a favorite in each of their last two games with the highest score in those games coming in at 218 total points with the average combined score clicking in at 193.7 ppg. The Thunder are 0-19 UNDER at home with more than one day of rest off a double-digit win as a favorite with the highest score in those games not eclipsing the 216 point plateau. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, in March games are 38-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate with the combined average score of 211.6 ppg scored. Play on the UNDER |
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03-16-18 | Celtics v. Magic +6.5 | 92-83 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
The banged up Boston Celtics gave everything they had against long time rivals the Washington Wizards last time out losing, 125-124 in OT. Now still shorthanded playing without key cog Kyrie Irving and exhausted and emotionally letdown after that above mentioned marathon event, they will be at a disadvantage trying to cover a 6 point + spread on the road against a young hungry group in Orlando looking for recognition. Meanwhile, Orlando has also sustained some injuries, but they are also hanging in there, and are off a win last time out and for the most part remain competitive and deserve my respect here as home dogs in this spot. I know that Boston lost to Orlando at home back in Jan , but right now I don't think their in the best shape mentally or physically to get their revenge and hand out a beat down in their current form BOSTON is 9-21 ATS versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last few seasons. .
NBA Road teams (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog are 95-154 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Orlando to cover |
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03-15-18 | Raptors -3.5 v. Pacers | 106-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Heading into this tilt at Indiana , the Toronto Raptors are in red hot form and have won nine in a row and 16 of its last 17 and are one of the very few teams in this league that must be respected as road favorites. I know Toronto has played a heavy schedule of late , but they are the best conditioned team in the NBA, and more than capable of standing tall here and notching the win and cover s visitors. A great deal has been made of Indiana, and I respect this team, but they have proven highly inconsistent this season, with long negative and positive runs and despite of a current 3 game win streak and 6 wins in their L/7 overall , just dont' inspire me against this type of lights out side, that will primed to continue to prove their dominance over the Eastern Conference. Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.Pacers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. TORONTO is 8-1 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. Toronto 114.6 Opp 97 NBA Road favorites (TORONTO) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days are 25-3 L/21 seasons for a 89.% conversion rate for bettors. ( Team 98 Opp 87.5) Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover |
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03-14-18 | Wizards v. Celtics +2.5 | 125-124 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Boston has been hampered over the last week with injuries and enters Wednesday night's game vs Washington minus at least two starters and two reserves. but despite of this they are a deep team, and must not be underestimated at home as underdogs. Meanwhile visiting Washington had a 5 game winning streak ended in ugly DD fashion last time out, to Minnesota and looked a little fatigued in that game, as many teams in the league are right now as the season begins to wind down.
These teams are vicious rivals, and despite of Boston being short handed , I'm betting they make a game of this and get the cover as home dogs. BOSTON is 11-2 ATS as an underdog this season. WASHINGTON is 15-26 ATS as a favorite this season.BOSTON is 31-15 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 dating back to last season. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 73-10 L/5 seasons for a 88% SU conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent off a close home loss by 3 points or less are 26-2 SU L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Boston Celtics to cover |
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03-12-18 | Bucks v. Grizzlies UNDER 207 | 121-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
The Grizzlies are in full tank mode, and are using a lot of young players . and partly because of this have not been fluid offensively for long time and have failed to score more than 98 points in 10 of their L/15 games . Memphis because of their lack of scoring and key injuries have seen 6 of their L/7 stay below the Total and here against Milwaukee tonight, I'm expecting another combined score to fail to eclipse the number. It must also be noted that their opponents tonight Milwaukee have been playing a more conservative style of hoops, of late and have failed to score more than 99 points in 6 of their L/8 games. Everything points to this being a viable under wager. MEMPHIS is 21-9 UNDER versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or better this season with a combined average score of 200.9 ppg going on the board.MEMPHIS is 12-4 UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average score of 198.7 ppg going on the board. MEMPHIS is 7-0 UNDER L/7 in home games after 7 or more consecutive losses this season with a combined average score of 191.8 ppg scored. Under is 6-1 in Grizzlies last 7 overall.Under is 6-0 in Grizzlies last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.MILWAUKEE is 22-11 UNDER L/33 in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins with a a combined average score of 204.3 ppg.Under is 10-2 in Bucks last 12 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 11-3 in Bucks last 14 road games.Under is 21-8 in Bucks last 29 overall.Under is 6-2 in Bucks last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Under is 10-3-1 in the last 14 meetings.
NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MEMPHIS) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, in March games are 34-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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03-11-18 | 76ers v. Nets +6 | 120-97 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Philadelphia enters this game having lost eight of its last 11 road games, and are being over valued here vs a Brooklyn side that has been very competitive of late covering 5 of their L/6 games overall including a DD win last time out. Note: BROOKLYN is 7-0 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season. Meanwhile, The Sixer's issues of late seem to be a lack of conditioning as they have looked fatigued , with key contributors like Joel Embiid who has looked gassed in recent outings averaging just 18.8 points on 41 percent shooting in five games in March after averaging 24.4 ppg on 50.3 percent shooting in February. QUOTE: "I think fatigue definitely has a part to say in some of Joel's performances recently," Philadelphia coach Brett Brown told reporters after Thursday's game when Embiid shot less than 30 percent for the first time all season. END QUOTE: With that said, I'm betting on a fairly well rested Brooklyn side to make a game of this and not be easy outs . Take the points. ( The last time these teams played here in Brooklyn back on Jan 31 the Nets won 116-108 as 8 point dogs) BROOKLYN is 15-7 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season.BROOKLYN is 25-12 ATS after a game where they covered the spread this season.BROOKLYN is 32-20 ATS as an underdog this season. BROOKLYN is 19-9 ATS L/28 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season. NBA Home teams (BROOKLYN) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, on Sunday games are 71-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points against opponent off a double digit win as a road underdog of 6 more are 6-26 SU L/21 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Brooklyn to cover |
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03-11-18 | Jazz -2 v. Pelicans | 116-99 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
The New Orleans Pelicans saw their franchise record-tying 10-game winning streak abruptly end Friday night with a 116-97 home loss to the Washington Wizards and I am now betting they will lose two in row as they face the up trending Utah Jazz a side that has won 10 consecutive road games and 17 of their last 19 games overall. It must also be noted that Key Pelicans starter Anthony Davis is injured ( ankle) and despite of practicing yesterday is going to be less than 100% if he plays today. The Jazz have won two of three meetings this season against the Pelicans, including a 133-109 blowout of the Pelicans in New Orleans on Feb. 5. According to my system to system power rankings this was not an anomaly , and are the superior side in this matchup as the linesmakers have already estimated. NEW ORLEANS is 1-10 ATS in home games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 free throws/game or less this season.UTAH is 8-1 ATS in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins this season. NBA Home underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - after having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 9-36 ATS L/21 seasons for a 80% go against conversion rate for bettors. Favorites vs. the money line (UTAH) - after allowing 80 points or less against opponent after allowing 115 points or more are 34-4 SU L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Utah Jazz to cover
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03-10-18 | Suns +12 v. Hornets | 115-122 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
Charlotte enters this game in a big time funk having lost 5 straight games, and should not be DD favs against any team at the NBA in their current form not even the lowly Phoenix Suns. That was evident in a disheartening loss to the Brooklyn Nets on Thursday night which will make getting up off the proverbial matt very difficult for the Hornets. The Hornets nasty D, makes them fade material as DD home chalk. The Hornets have allowed 121 or more points six times in their last 15 games. CHARLOTTE is 2-11 ATS L/13 versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game.CHARLOTTE is 2-11 ATS L/13 playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. The Suns are 13-0 ATS L/13 covering by 9.6 ppg on the road off a game as a dog when they are off two double-digit ATS losses. The Suns were 9-4 SU in those games with non of the losses coming by more than 7 points.The Hornets are 1-18 SU and 2-17 ATS with rest when they are off two consecutive games in which they had six-plus double-digit scorers. NBA Road underdogs (PHOENIX) - after a blowout loss by 20 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 62-29 ATS L/21 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Phoenix Suns to cover |
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03-09-18 | Warriors -4 v. Blazers | 108-125 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
The Portland Trail Blazers' current eight-game winning streak began Feb. 14, when the Golden State Warriors visited here just before the all star break. The Blazers won that game by a 123-117 count, but will be hard pressed to do it again vs Golden State is 27-5 SU on the road this season with the average margin of victory coming by 7 ppg. NBA Home underdogs (PORTLAND) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 32-66 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - very good shooting team - shooting 48% or better on the season, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 148-82 ATS L/21 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. NBA Favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, a top-level team (75% or better ) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 58-10 SU winning by a combined average of 8.4 ppg game , which gives credence to us laying 4 points or less in this situation. Play on Golden State to cover |
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03-08-18 | 76ers v. Heat +1 | 99-108 | Win | 102 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
The 76ers and Miami Heat have played three times already this season with the home team holding serve in each tilt, and I'm betting the status quo remains the same after tonight. Miami has won the last six times it has faced the 76ers at home. MIAMI is 20-8 ATS L/28 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts - 2nd half of the season dating back to the last campaign. The Heat are 18-0 ATS/SU off a loss in which their opponent shot 50% or better from beyond the arc and it is after the All-Star break with the wins coming by an average of 17 ppg. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better are just 6-27 ATS L/21 seasons for a 81% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Miami Heat to cover |
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03-07-18 | Cavs v. Nuggets -2 | 113-108 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
Cleveland will be out looking for payback when they meet in Denver on Wednesday night for a 126-117 loss they suffered at home to the Nuggets last week. But with that said, you don't always get what you want as the Rolling Stones song suggests. Tonight, I'm betting the young Nuggets despite of playing last night and looking disinterested in a loss to Dallas as road chalk, will be very motivated for a bounce back at home vs a Cavaliers side I'm betting they will be up for playing against and that they actually matchup well against according to my own system vs system analysis. Note: Nuggets are a well conditioned group and are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games playing with no rest. CLEVELAND is 3-15 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season and is 4-12 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game this season. CLEVELAND is 9-21 ATS versus below average defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more this season. Cavaliers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
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03-07-18 | Jazz v. Pacers +1 | 104-84 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
The schizophrenic Indiana Pacers are currently on a 3 game win streak, and have 7 wins in their L/9 and look very much like their revving up into top gear, and must be respected here on their own home floor where they have thrived going 22-11 SU this season. When they visited tonight's guests Utah back on Jan 15 the Pacers looked like they matched up well against their opponents, and despite of Jazz looking for revenge I'm betting they fall short. Note: Utah has lost 19 of their 31 road games this season.Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Meanwhile, the Jazz have won three in a row and are 15-2 in the last 17 games. But now on tired legs with this their 4th game in 7 days and short handed as they are expected to be without forward Derrick Favors, who is sidelined with neck spasms, their at a disadvantage. If Favors plays I, expecting he will be less 100%. QUOTE: "We're going to have a very difficult game at Indiana," Jazz coach Quin Snyder said. "We know that. They played well against us here and beat us pretty good (109-94 on Jan. 15). END QUOTE NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (UTAH) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a home win by 10 points or more are 44-211 SU L/21 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Indiana Pacers to cover |
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03-06-18 | Nets +15 v. Warriors | 101-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
Golden State continues their quest for another NBA championship and are currently in top form having won five straight as they host the downtrodden Brooklyn Nets this Tuesday night. Despite of the Warriors over whelming fire power and superior record compared the the Brooklyn Nets recent meetings in this series ,have been competitive . The last time these teams played the Nets made the Warriors work hard for a 118-111 win at home in November. It must also be noted that six of their last seven games at Golden State have been decided by nine or fewer points, with one loss going to overtime. Recently despite of their continued futility the Nets have shown some fight, as their L/3 road losses have been decided by a total margin of 14 points ( 4.66 ppg). With that said, lets plug our noses, closes our eyes and quickly squeeze the proverbial trigger on the Nets to cover taking points. GOLDEN STATE is 8-19 ATS L/27 against Atlantic division opponents.Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference. Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest.BROOKLYN is 30-20 ATS as an underdog this season. BROOKLYN is 8-1 ATS when playing against a top-tier team (Win Pct. 70% or better) this season. Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (BROOKLYN) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games are a long term quality wager, going 241-160 ATSL/21 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Brooklyn Nets to cover |
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03-06-18 | Knicks v. Blazers -9 | 87-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
I don't make a habit of laying a lot of lumber with my NBA selections, but every now and than playing chalk makes sense. Right now NY is just playing out its schedule, and despite of a hungry group of bench players and G League scrubs getting a lot of court time they are still fade material vs a Portland side currently in top form, as is evident by winning 7 straight. The Blazers have also only lost once in their L/14 at home in the Moda Center where they consistently play their best hoops behind super star Damian Liilard. The Knicks have lost in 11 of their last 13 meetings with the Blazers, including a 103-91 defeat at Madison Square Garden on Nov. 27 and once again look like they will end up on the wrong side of a lopsided score. Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Knicks are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Knicks are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall.Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. NEW YORK is 3-13 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points this season with the average margin of defeat coming by 12.6 ppg. NBA team vs the money line (NEW YORK) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 7-55 SU losing by an average of just under 10 ppg. Play on Portland to cover |
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03-05-18 | Bucks +3 v. Pacers | 89-92 | Push | 0 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
The Bucks and Pacers go head to head for the second time in less than a week in Central Division action this Monday night . The last time they played it was a hard fought affair. Pacers managed to eek out a 103-96 win at Milwaukee despite of nearly blowing a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter. Now in the return bout, I'm expecting to the Bucks to have a good chance of returning the unsavory favor of dumping the Pacers in front of their own fans and more importantly get us the cover. It must be noted that the Bucks and their Greek Freak looked to be coming out of a mini slump when he provided his team with 35 points in a come from behind win vs Philadelphia last night . When this top tier baller is on his game, the Bucks are hard to defeat, and I'm betting he will be the catalyst for his team to cover in this spot. Yes, I know Indiana has played well of late, and off two consecutive road upsets. But in the past this has not be a good scenario for the Pacers as they are just 2-12 ATS L/14 off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog. Bucks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Bucks are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games playing on 0 days rest.Pacers are 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - off a road win by 3 points or less, playing on back-to-back days are just 5-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 85% for bettors. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - off a home win, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 30-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (INDIANA) - off a road win by 3 points or less, playing on back-to-back days are 4-28 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Milwaukee to cover |
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03-04-18 | 76ers v. Bucks +2 | 110-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
The Bucks enter this game against the Sixer's slumping ( 4 straight losses) but they are more than capable of turning things around, and have won or tied the last five season series with Philadelphia .Each team has won once on its home court already this season . QUOTE: "We can't worry about these last couple games," Middleton said. "I know they were big games for us; we lost them, we've been through it before. Now we've just got to bounce back, pull together and show the kind of team that we are." END QUOTE. With that said, I'm expecting a big time effort here from the Dr.Jekyll and Mr. Hyde Bucks in this spot. 76ers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Atlantic. MILWAUKEE is 19-6 ATS L/25 in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last few seasons.MILWAUKEE is 84-48 ATS after 4 or more consecutive losses .aVERAGE COMPOSITE score: Bucks 99 Opp 99. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 42-9 SU L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Milwaukee to cover |
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03-04-18 | Suns v. Hawks UNDER 224 | 112-113 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
These two rebuilding programs have gone through a lot of struggles this season, and both have looked a little winded here late in the campaign. A team that is particular tired are the young Suns, as was evident against Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday, falling 124-116 despite 39 points from emerging star Devin Booker. QUOTE: "I think we probably fatigued a little bit," Phoenix interim coach Jay Triano told reporters afterward. "I don't know if our guys are used to playing at that level for that long of a period of time, but that's what we'll get to." END QUOTE. Today here in Atlanta I'm expecting their tired legs to effect the Suns, and they won't be up to taking part in a run and gun affair, which is just fine for a Atlanta side that prefers a slower pace behind a 26th ranked offensive effecnicy rating. With that said, I'm betting we see the combined score of this affair to stay below the number. Under is 11-2 in Suns last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Under is 4-1 in Suns last 5 road games. Under is 20-9 in Suns last 29 games following a straight up loss. Under is 17-8 in Suns last 25 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 7-1 in Hawks last 8 vs. Western Conference. Under is 21-7 in Hawks last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. ATLANTA is 21-7 UNDER L/28 when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season with a combined average of 207.6 ppg scored. ATLANTA is 9-0 UNDER versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season with a combined average of 196.8 ppg scored . PHOENIX is 16-7 UNDER L/23 after a combined score of 225 points or more this season with a combined average of 213.2 ppg scored. NBA All teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (ATLANTA/PHOENIX) - in a game involving two struggling teams (25% to 40%), second half of the season are 38-10 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 216.5 ppg going on the scoreboard. Play on the UNDER |
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03-03-18 | Jazz v. Kings +7 | 98-91 | Push | 0 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
The Kings enter this game in a positive state of mind and momentum on their sides as they come off a home victory. Sacramento's 116-111 overtime winner over the Brooklyn Nets ended a four-game home losing streak and a five-game skid overall. The Kings will face a Utah Jazz side off a revenge win last night vs Minnesota on tired legs and susceptible to being in a letdown situation vs a team that they could easily be over looking. Note: Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win. Jazz are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (UTAH) - off a home win against a division rival, on Saturday games are 17-42 SU L/5 seasons for 71% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams (SACRAMENTO) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 35-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover |
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03-03-18 | Lakers v. Spurs -4.5 | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
The Spurs, have lost four of their past five games and seven of their last 10 trips to the hardwood, and are now in need of getting their ship righted and quickly before the post season arrives. Tonight against a Lakers side that they have revenge against for a 93-81 upset loss earlier this season, I expect Popovich and company to come out here with all guns blazing in the friendly confines of the AT & T Center where they own a 22-7 SU record . It must be noted that Popovich is a perfect 12-0 SU in his career vs Pacific division sides with revenge for a same season loss and once again looks to notch a win and more importantly a cover. Spurs are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss. Lakers are 1-10 SU L/11 after playing in Miami. ( That's a place where a lot ballers go over board with extra curricular activities and hangovers for young groups like the Lakers are common.)
Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover |
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03-02-18 | Thunder v. Suns +8 | 124-116 | Push | 0 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
The young Suns broke an 0-for-February run with a 110-102 victory at Memphis on Wednesday and now have a little momentum on their sides as they face the Oklahoma City Thunder this Friday night in Arizona. Phoenix took a 114-100 victory over Oklahoma City seven weeks ago , and strangely enough according to my system vs system power rankings matches up well against the Thunder. Considering how the Thunder consistently play down to lower tier opponents it will not be a difficult decision to take the points with home side in this spot. Suns are 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 at home in this series. OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-16 ATS as a road favorite this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 0-11 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite this season.
NBA team vs the money line (PHOENIX) - average free throw shooting team (72-76%) against a poor free throw shooting team (69-72%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (14.5 TO's or less ) are 26-9 SU L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 4 straight games are 10-34 ATS L/21 seasons for a 77% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover |
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03-02-18 | Mavs v. Bulls +2 | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
Dallas has not had a good season, but has been especially bad on the road where they own a ugly record going just 7-23 SU. I know their opponents tonight the Chicago Bulls might not inspire bettors, but this young group Hoiberg has put on the floor are hungry for wins and are playing for recognition within the organization which makes them dangerous.
DALLAS is 0-7 ATS after a close loss by 3 points or less this season( lost a 111-110 heartbreaker vs the Thunder last time out) .DALLAS is 0-9 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons . CHICAGO is 10-0 ATS in home games after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more . Play on Chicago to cover |
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03-01-18 | Nets -1.5 v. Kings | 111-116 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
This wager I'm making on this game between the Brooklyn Nets and their hosts the Sacramento Kings is based on a old cliché which focuses in on the lesser of two evils concept. In this corner we have a bottom feeder and in the other corner another perennial loser or vice versa. However, despite of my less than flattering description of these two squads, one of them according to my power rankings has a decent edge, and must be considered viable side investment options
With. Brooklyn starting to get healthy with Forwards Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (14.2 points per game) and Caris LeVert (11.7 points) returning from extended side line duty this past Tuesday and in the process producing 21 and 24 points in their first two games , respectively the Nets look very much like they have the ability to take out their opponents here as visitors. I know that the Brooklyn lost to Sacramento at home earlier this season 104-99 back on Dec 20th, but with payback on the agenda and supped up lineup , I'm expecting the Brooklyn crew to make a positive mark in a revenge scenario vs a Kings team that is just 8-20 SU at home this season. BROOKLYN is 21-9 ATS L/30 in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent. SACRAMENTO is 2-10 ATS L/12 as a home underdog of 6 points or less this season. NBA Road favorites (BROOKLYN) - an explosive offensive team (102 PPG or more ) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 110 points or more are 61-28 ATS L/21 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Brooklyn Nets to cover |
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02-28-18 | Warriors v. Wizards +9 | 109-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
The mighty Golden State Warriors visit the Washington Wizards on Wednesday night at Capital One Arena in a game that I'm betting will be a lot closer than the linesmakers may anticipate. The Wizards in their last trip to the hardwood took 107-104 victory in Milwaukee on Tuesday for their third win in four games since the All-Star break . Washington is 10-3 without injured point guard John Wall .In these teams' first meeting, the Warriors trailed by 10 at home after three quarters, but rallied for a 120-117 win Oct. 27. No body in this league matches up well against the Warriors, but from a system vs system stand point I'm betting the Wizards have an edge despite of playing last night. Washington has covered 10 of their L/13 overall. Golden State is just 14-16 ATS on the road this season.Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Wizards are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Wizards are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. WASHINGTON is 17-7 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season.WASHINGTON is 16-7 ATS as an underdog this season. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (14.5 or less TO's) are just 18-44 SU L/5 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Washington to cover |
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02-27-18 | Kings +12 v. Blazers | 99-116 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Sacramento despite of playing last night are viable underdogs in this spot vs Portland thanks to this line be over exaggerated by the lines-makers. The Kings lost 118-110 to Minnesota on Monday but have been competitive overall and have been in position in the fourth quarter to win their previous three contests, despite of suffering losses in those tilts. Previous to those games they beat Dallas. Note: Kings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on NO rest. The Kings have also covered 10 of their L/16 overall, while Portland has covered just 14 of 29 at home this season for sub. 500 ATS record as hosts. Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. SACRAMENTO is 36-13 ATS in road games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SACRAMENTO) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a lower tier defensive team (102 PPG or more ), after allowing 105 points or more are 40-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SACRAMENTO) - poor rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game, in February games are 31-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Sacramento Kings to cover |
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02-27-18 | Bulls +10.5 v. Hornets | 103-118 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
Charlotte enters this game playing some pretty good basketball at the moment, as their 4 game win streak would suggest. However, this Hornets teams is far from being consistent and slightly being over rated by the lines-makers tonight as home chalk.Meanwhile, the Bulls in a rebuilding season, are struggling mightily, but have been competitive enough to warrant being backed as DD dogs vs this type of team, based on my own system to system analysis . The Bulls are 2-0 against the Hornets this season and have won each of the last four meetings. Bulls are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Southeast.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Bulls are 4-0 ATS L/4 meetings. CHICAGO is 22-10 ATS L/32 as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. CHICAGO is 10-2 ATS against Southeast division opponents this season.CHICAGO is 10-2 ATS L/12 versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season.CHARLOTTE is 2-16 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. CHARLOTTE is 4-17 ATS L/21 after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread.CHARLOTTE is 1-9 ATS L/10 in home games after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half dating back to last season. NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (CHICAGO) - horrible foul drawing team - attempting 21 or less free throws/game, on Tuesday nights are 46-15 ATS L/21 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (CHARLOTTE) - strong offensive team (102 PPG or better ) against a struggling defensive team (102 PPG or more ) after 42+ games, after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 24-57 ATS L/21 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors. The Hornets are 0-18 SU/ 1-17 ATS with rest when they are off two consecutive games in which they had six-plus double-digit scorers. Play on Chicago Bulls to cover |
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02-26-18 | Rockets v. Jazz +2.5 | 96-85 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Houston has averaged 123 points during a current 12 win streak. However, the Jazz are a side that can present any team in the NBA some problems in their current form after winning 12 of their last 13 games. The Jazz have also held 10 of its last 13 foes below 100 points and deserve respect here in their own back yard. After playing last night, I expect the Rockets to be on tired legs and for the high altitude of Salt Lake City to be hard on them. Note: Houston is just 2-8 ATS L/10 with no rest, while the Jazz are 7-3 ATS as home dogs this campaign. Utah has been winning SU but not covering spreads regularly.... However, HC Snyder is 8-0 ATS L/8 in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games. NBA teams (HOUSTON) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, in February games are 51-93 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 65% for bettors on the blind. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HOUSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, playing on back-to-back days are 39-78 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 67% for bettors. NBA Home underdogs (UTAH) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 103-60 ATS L/5 seasons L/21 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Utah to cover |
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02-26-18 | Pacers v. Mavs +3 | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Tonight's Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks game features two teams operating at the opposite end of the proverbial performance spectrum. Indiana has won 4 straight, while, the Mavericks are on a four-game losing streak . The Mavs have only notched 3 wins in their L/14 overall but Nine of the Mavericks' last 14 losses are by single digits, and they must not be underestimated as home dogs in this spot. DALLAS is 13-5 ATS L/18 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season. Mavericks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Central.Pacers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southwest. The Pacers are 0-13 ATS/SU L/13 when the line is within 3 of pick off a win as a favorite facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.50 and it is after the All-Star break. losing SU by an average of 9.5 ppg. Play on Dallas to cover |
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02-26-18 | Magic +10.5 v. Thunder | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
Orlando enters this tilt on a 5 game losing streak, but they have been competitive in their L/15 trips to the hardwood covering 10 times and only twice during that span have lost by more than 10 points. The Magic also beat their hosts tonight the Thunder earlier this season by a 121-108 count and actually matchup well against them from a system to system standpoint. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City despite of their top tier talent, have been largely inconsistent this season. This unbalanced basketball is exemplified on the ATS board where the Thunder have covered only 3 of their L/8 games. Tonight the up and down Oklahoma City hoops team now find themselves in a precarious spot as they enter this game in an emotional letdown mode after getting slapped around by Golden State 112-80 last time out and are susceptible to a down effort. Orlando is 4-1 ATS L/5 meetings in this series and have covered 5 straight here in Oklahoma City. OKLAHOMA CITY is 0-10 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a road favorite this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-12 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-20 ATS L/26 versus struggling defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46%or more this season. Magic are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.Thunder are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 home games. NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (ORLANDO) - lower tier rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game, in February games are 30-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a huge blowout loss by 30 or more have won SU 23 of the L/33 opportunities. NBA Home favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a bad team (25 to 40%) are 20-48 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Orlando to cover |
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02-25-18 | 76ers v. Wizards -2 | 94-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
I have this way of going against the grain from time to time, and that's what I'm dong here this Sunday as I fade a 76ers team that owns the Eastern Conference's longest current winning streak ( 8 games) . Meanwhile, the Washington Wizards are 8-3 in its last 11 despite of playing without key cog John Wall to a knee injury are viable opponent for NBA opponents here at home in DC. The Wizards won three straight road games before getting smacked around by a 122-105 loss to the Charlotte Hornets on Friday, but will be now be ready for a bounce back performance on their own home floor. Note:WASHINGTON is 8-0 ATS L/8 in home games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. It must be noted that the Wizards seem to play their best hoops against top tier teams and have recent wins vs Oklahoma City, Toronto, and Cleveland and I'm betting the young Sixer's are next on their hit list. Washington has won the last seven home meetings with Philadelphia and 20 of the last 26. WASHINGTON is 15-7 ATS L/22 versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots this season. NBA Home teams (WASHINGTON) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 80-39 ATS L/21 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Washington Wizards to cover |
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02-25-18 | Rockets v. Nuggets UNDER 228 | 119-114 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Houston enters this game against Denver having won 11 straight games and have notched victories in 18 of their last 20 games. But will play without Eric Gordon (18.5ppg) which I'm betting effects their offensive flow here in the high altitude of the Rockies this evening. Meanwhile, Denver has won 10 of 13 and are 7-1 SU in February and could find the sledding tough behind their 17th ranked PACE vs a Houston team that can also play some solid D, as is evident by holding 4 of their L/9 opponents to under 99 points and ranked 9th in the league in defensive rating. Despite both teams current explosive forms , this line according to my own projections is slightly bloated to the upside and gives us a viable opportunity to cash taking an under stance. Under is 11-2 in Rockets last 13 vs. Western Conference.Under is 10-4-1 in Rockets last 15 road games. HOUSTON is 22-10 UNDER L/32 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season with a combined average score of 217 ppg going on the board. HOUSTON is 16-5 UNDER L/21 in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games with a combined average score of 216.2 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DENVER /HOUSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 37-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 214 ppg going on the board. Play UNDER |
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02-24-18 | Grizzlies v. Heat OVER 195.5 | 89-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
The Heat, are off a loss to the New Orleans Pelicans 124-123 in overtime on Friday night, and have lost eight of their past nine games. Needless to say the Heat will be exhausted here, and will not be able to play their usual physical brand of defensive basketball on tired legs. Note Miami as allowed 6 of their L/7 opponents to score 104 more points, allowing an average of 112.33 ppg in those tilts.Over is 6-0 in Heat last 6 games playing on 0 days rest. Meanwhile, Memphis also on tired legs after paying last night continues down an ugly path, especially with their defensive play allowing 12 of their L/13 opponents to score 101 or more points, something I'm betting happens again in a more wide open game than the lines-makers expect. Over is 8-2 in Grizzlies last 10 games playing on 0 days rest.
MEMPHIS is 12-1 OVER L/13 in road games on Saturday games with a combined average score of 215.8 ppg scored. The over is 4-1 in the Grizzlies last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Over is 8-3 in Grizzlies last 11 road games.Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Miami. MIAMI is 26-12 OVER in home games after allowing 115 points or more with a combined average of 200.9 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 33-5 OVER L/21 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 207.4 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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02-24-18 | Magic v. 76ers UNDER 217.5 | 105-116 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
Philadelphia plays their best defensive basketball at home this season , and in recent action have not allowed 5 of their L/8 opponents to score more than 98 points when playing as hosts. Overall leading up to the all star break the Sixers allowed an average of just 94.8 ppg in 5 games all wins and are currently ranked 4th in the league in Defensive effecnicy . They did take part in a high scoring affair in their first game after the break, but will now be prepared to clamp down defensively vs a inconsistent Orlando offense ( Ranked 19th in Off Effecnicy). I'm betting on a total combined score to remain on the low side of the total. PHILADELPHIA is 11-1 UNDER L/12 in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) with a combined average of 203.7 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 20-11 UNDER revenging a road loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 213 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (ORLANDO) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins are 41-11 and 6-0 this season UNDER L/21 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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02-23-18 | Spurs +3.5 v. Nuggets | 119-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
The San Antonio Spurs went into the all star break losing five of their last six games and now the pundits are jumping off the band wagon. I'm saying not so quick. This franchise has just to much pedigree and experience to be dismissed so easily and must be respected here tonight as well rested road underdogs. I know the experts are currently in love with the Denver Nuggets, after having won nine of their last 12, but this is still a team that has proven itself inconsistent and needs a little more positive momentum to be looked upon with such fondness from the media. I understand we live in the world of instant gratification and what have you done for me lately attitude, but I'm still a believer in Popovich and company and that get my backing here tonight . The Nuggets did beat the Spurs in their last meeting on Feb 13 by a 117-109 count, but the Spurs are 8-3 SU/ATS with same season revenge in this series, and his Spurs are 11-3 SU when playing on 6 or more days rest. Spurs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.Nuggets are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Spurs are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings in Denver. NBA Favorites (DENVER) - an excellent offensive team (102 PPG or more ) against a struggling defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 59-104 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 64% for bettors on the blind. Play on San Antonio to cover |