Los Angeles' 24-17 home win over Las Vegas in Week 4 and according to my power rankings still matchup well here giving us an edge taking points. I know Chargers QB  Juston Herbert is gone for the season, but  Easton Stick  is viable backup and must not be disrespected. Quote: "Look, I understand North Dakota State is not the National Football League, but I'm used to winning," said Stick, who played college football for the Bison. "I only know one way." End Quote. both teams are seeing alot of nagging injuuries take their tolls on both sides, but depth charts still suggest getting points here is optimal. 

LA CHARGERS are 22-9 ATS L/31 versus poor offensive teams - averaging 285 or less yards/game in the second half of the season.

LAS VEGAS is 1-9 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CHARGERS) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in December games are 34-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams (LA CHARGERS) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in December games are 93-38 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chargers to cover

After three straight underdog wins the Packers are back in the play off race, against a side the NY Giants that are not. Thats not a good thing from my perspective, as the Giants are playing loose while  the Packers will now feeling pressure to perform and  could easily be in a letdown situation after that trio of surprising victories. Also the Gemn have momentum coming into this prime time affair, after win last week and are now feeling alot more confident about themselves. 

Daboll is 15-6 ATS  vs. sub standard  passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse as the coach of NY GIANTS.

NFLRoad favorites (GREEN BAY) - in a game involving two sub standard  defensive teams (335 to 370 YPG), after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 6-28 ATS L/40 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY GIANTS) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 34-12 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NY Giants to cover

These teams are explosive offensive sides with Dallas averaging 33.2 ppg while Philadelphia is averaging 27.4 ppg. Also recent meetings between these sides have see the manifestation of high scoring affairs, with an average 60.2 ppg scored in the L/6 overall meetings with all 6 going over the total.DALLAS is 7-0 OVER \n home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 62.8 ppg scored. DALLAS is 7-0 OVER  in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 season with a combined average of 63.2 ppg scored. PHILADELPHIA is 10-2 OVER  after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 56.4 ppg scored. Everything points to this being. aback and forth affair that eclipses the total. 

Play on the over 

Its not easy going against a Cowboys side that  has won 14 consecutive games at home ,but thats what Im about to recommend we do. I know the Eagles had their clocks cleaned vs the SF 49ers last week, but even top tier teams like the Eagles can have an off week. I also know the Boyz despite of their strong current run still have not beaten an .above .500 team this season, and do most of their damage against sub par sides.  With that said and considering the fact that the Eagles when  QB Jalen Hurts, is on the field play vs an above .500 squad like the Cowboys the Eagles  have gone  14-1 SU  L/15 . 

PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 ATS  in road games after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (DALLAS) - excellent offensive team (370 or more  YPG) against a team with a struggling defense (335 to 370 YPG), after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 8-18 L/10 seasons for ago against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Philadelphia to cover

The Chiefs have not performed optimally of late , but don't be mistaken this a top tier team that is capable of capturing a Super Bowl and now in bounce back mode after a down effort vs the Packers last time out. Meanwhile, nothing has come easily for the Bills this season, and Im betting they will find themselves in a tough spot this week in KC. Buffalo has failed to cover 7 of their L/8. BUFFALO is 1-8 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.Reid is 41-21 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of KANSAS CITY. bottom line is here, is that Im big believer in Mahomes and the Chiefs, add to that I have some futures bets on the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl and you might understand why Im taking this position. 

Play on the KC Chiefs to cover

These teams have seen alot of low scoring games this season, thanks in part to a lack of fluid offense and strong up-trending defenses. With back up QBs expected to start today another low scoring event is my bet. 

 The  Raiders have gone under in 9 of 12 tilts this season and have gone under in 5 of 6 at home, averaging a just  36.8 combined PPG in the process . Meanwhile the Vikings have also gone 9-3 under  and when they are favored have stayed under in all 6 as chalk with a combined average of   35.1 ppg getting scored.

Teams like the Raiders and the Vikings both off a bye week dating back 3 season have seen , 15 of the L/17 stay under  the offered total for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFLRoad teams against the total (MINNESOTA) - off a home loss against opponent off a home loss by 10 or more points are 32-10 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 39.2 ppg scored.

Play under

Texans behind rookie QB Stroud are getting alot of accolades, but after escaping Broncos last drive last week that stalled on Houstons 8 yard line, they enter into this game as road chalk something that they dont have a great history of being successful at ,as is evident by failing in 6 of their  L/7 in the chalk role. Add to that the Texans lost  one their top WR Dell, which Im betting will be a blow to them in this spot and you have a situation that could easily see the under performing ( Im being nice here) pulling off the upset and more importantly getting us the cover.

HOUSTON is 3-11 ATS  when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 34-12 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate.

Jets 3-1 ATS L/4 meetings in this series.

Play on NY Jets to cover

Bengals QB Browning shocked alot of ppl in his big performance last week that saw him break some records for a back up , but Im betting he will suffer regression here this week, after that miraculous 34-31 OT underdog win vs the Jags.  This is an important game for both the Bengals and the  Colts, as post season implication prevail in what should be a grueling affair.   NFL  team (CINCINNATI) - off a huge upset win as a double digit underdog, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 3-21 ATS L/30 seasons for a 88% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Colts to cover 

Bill Belichick’s Patriots just cant score, they have no flow to their offense what so ever. The Steelers are also not much better, but they have shown some signs of like under new offensive coordinator Canada. .  This could easily be a snore fest , and the linesmakers know it setting a total of around 30 points on this tilt.  I know  most of the  general public are not interested in this game, but from a bettors perspective their are some edges that can be isolated giving us the edge needed to cash a ticket. First off the Steelers after a big win feel asleep at the wheel last time out, which brings into play a strong bounce back tendency form HC  Mike Tomlin  see his team go  10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS in his career,  off a home loss. Considering New England is just 0-10 SUATS in their last ten non-division contests  and 1-12 SUATS in their thirteen games as a pup. Im betting Tomlin weaves his bounce back magic once again, and with Trubisky under center  for the Steelers, a new sense of offensive effectiveness may take hole. But whatever the case Im betting the lack of Patriots scoring will doom them here again tonight in this prime time affair. 

NEW ENGLAND is 0-6 ATS  vs. sub par kickoff coverage teams, allowing 24 or more  yards per return this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at -15.7. NEW ENGLAND is 1-8 ATS  passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. this season with a average ppg diff of -11 ppg.NEW ENGLAND is 1-7 ATS  as an underdog this season with a average ppf diff of -9.8 ppg. 

NFL Home teams (PITTSBURGH) - after going under the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record in the second half of the season are 28-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover

We have a interesting set up from a recent trends historical data base of late from tonights tilt featuring the Green Bay Packers vs the KC Chiefs.  Note: Sunday and Monday night tilts have gone under in 23 of 26 games this season and have cashed to the under in  15 straight games . In the last two seasons the under has been a cash cow grabbing the dough from the books  in 32  of the  35 opportunities.

Also the under has cashed  in 24 of the 29 games for a 83% conversion rate with   NFL sides like Green Bay  off back-to-back underdog victories  . 

NFL Road teams against the total (KANSAS CITY) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 30-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

KANSAS CITY is 7-1 UNDER  in games played on a grass field this season with a combined average of 36.4 ppg scored..

KC previous to their last game vs Vegas in a 31-17 win had done under 6 straight times. 

Im bucking these types of trends and instead will ride with the tide.

Play under

The Chiefs have a recent history of not performing optimally off one win exact  going  2-9 ATS  including 1-5 ATS road games . Kansas City is  also 0-9 ATS as a favorite when both teams are coming off an ATS win and is 0-7 ATS  after a win by 14 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

(Packers won last week as dogs and the Chiefs polished off Vegas by DDS as favs.) On  the fliside  the Packers are 13-4 ATS as a dog of 3 or more  points with HC Matt LaFleur on the sidelines. Also  Packers QB QB Jordan Love owns a  3-0 SU/ATS  in his young career hosting a  non-conference opponent.  LaFleur is 8-1 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points as the coach of GREEN BAY.

Add to that GREEN BAY is 10-1 ATS L/11 in home games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game in the second half of the season and is s 10-1 ATS  L/11  in home games vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att. in the second half of the season , As well as GREEN BAY is 16-4 ATS L/20 in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season in the second half of the season . 

.NFL Underdogs or pick (GREEN BAY) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% in the second half of the season are 31-9 ATS L/30 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Green Bay to cover

Cleveland has played low scoring games at home this season, but have gone over the total in all 5 of their road tilts with a combined average of 54.3 ppg scored. Last week Cleveland played in Denver, and that brings into play a situation where non division road  teams that get a whiff of fresh breathable air after coming from the Mile Hight city are 9-0-1 over dating back 4 seasons. Im betting a Cleveland team that has not done much scoring here of late  to feel rejuvenated and come out here swinging  and put more points on the board than the lines-makers expect.  Meanwhile the  Rams are a side that is finally getting their offense in gear off scoring 37 points last time out will primed to keep that train going. McVay is 12-4 OVER off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 54.9 ppg scored.

Play over

The Tampa Bays Bucs' will be with out three top tier    defenders for this  this game: LB Lavonte David (groin), LB Devin White (foot) and CB Jamel Dean (ankle) making a inept Carolina D, more proficient. Thats not a good omen considering  The Bucs D since they  came offt heir  bye  in Week 6,  rank last in the NFL in EPA/play (0.069) On the flipside the Bucks offense with Bake Mayfield at the helm have proven to be bad bets when favored cashing just 13 of 38 times for a go against 65% conversion rate for his batting backers. With that said, Ill recommend we take the points with a Carolina team that has not pressure on them what so ever, as their play off hopes are already dead in the water. 

)TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS L/10  vs. struggling  passing teams averaging 5.2 or less passing yards/att in the second half of the season.

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CAROLINA) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 17 points or less in 4 straight games are 97-47 ATS L/30 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams (CAROLINA) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in December games are 87-38 ATS L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL road pups with one or less wins entering their eighth through 12th contest of the season are 63-30-5 (68%) ATS since 2003, covering by an veage  3.6 points per game.

Play on Carolina to cover

Hey I know the Washington D has looked atrocious of late , but the coaching staff have really been focusing on  slowing down their game  and for a more  focused concerted effort on being  more physical and disciplined on defense. Yes, I also know how explosive Miami has been, but with this being their 2nd straight away game a little bit of regression must be expected from this road weary group, playing a in division matchup. Only one of the Fins last 7 games has eclisped this totals offering and Im betting on another one staying under the number. the L/3 meetings here in Washington between these sides has stayed on the low side of the offered total. 

WASHINGTON is 8-1 UNDER in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 38.1 ppg scored.WASHINGTON is 8-0 UNDER after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 33.6 ppg scored. Rivera is 6-0 UNDER in home games versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or better  rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season as the coach of WASHINGTON with a combined average of 36 ppg .Rivera is 11-1 UNDER in home games in the second half of the season as the coach of WASHINGTON with a combined average of 37.6 ppg scored. 

MIAMI is 26-9 UNDER L/35 against NFC East division opponents with a combined average of 39 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams against the total (MIAMI) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 30-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored.

Play on the under 

Broncos have now won 5 in a row SU after starting the season 1-5 SU and deserve respect here as underdogs this week vs the Texans. Nothing comes easily for the Texans this season, and Im betting if they get the win here this week, it wont come easily. Advantage taking the points. 

HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS in home games in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home teams (HOUSTON) - excellent passing team (7.3 or more  PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA), after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 11-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

DENVER is 6-3 straight up against HOUSTON since 1992 and won the most recent meeting here in Texas. 

Payton is 13-4 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better in all games he has coached since 1992.

Play on Denver to cover

When you see a Detroit Lions game you want almost automatically look for reasons to bet the over, but this is not one of those games here in New Orleans vs the inept offense of the Saints that are averaging  just 18.3 ppg at home this season. Note  When team from the  NFC   are non-division Conference road favorites the total has failed to be eclipsed 9 of the L/10 times. 

NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 UNDER  versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more  rushing yards/game over the last 2 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 UNDER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 UNDER  versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more  yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 28 ppg scored. NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 UNDER  in December games over the last 3 season with a combined average of 30.5 ppg scored. 

Allen is 9-1 UNDER vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game. in all games he has coached with a combined average of 41.8 ppg scored.

Campbell is 11-3 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of DETROIT with a combined average of 40.6 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DETROIT) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 28-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL team against the total (DETROIT) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 33-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play under

The Lions looked bad in their Thanksgiving Day loss to the Packers, and have shown alot of signs of weakness at times this season despite of the consistent accolades they get from the media. From a trends perspectivee the Lions have also failed to cover 5 of their L/6 off a SU chalk loss

   . Meanwhile, the Saints are desperate and need a victory badly to  stay inNFC Playoff race.as well as NFC South contention . I know the Saints have not looked good of late, but they are  New  s 6-0 ATS when coming off back-to-back SUATS defeats and are  7-2 ATS in this series and 4-0 ATS when getting points .  NEW ORLEANS is 15-5 ATS L/20  vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game in the second half of the season

DETROIT is 16-31 ATSas a road favorite since 1992.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DETROIT) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 45-91 ATS L/10 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans Saints to cover

Because Dallas has been top form of late, and also because they are Americas team  they are being over rated here vs the Seattle Seahawks a side that has won 3 of the L/4 meetings vs the Boyz including 4 straight covers. I know Seattle has not performed optimally of late, and lost their last two games both as pups but it must be noted Seahawks  teams are 10-0 ATS L/10 when losing consecutive tilts as underdogs. Carroll is 20-5 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses as the coach of SEATTLE.

Carroll is 20-10 ATS  against NFC East division opponents as the coach of SEATTLE.

 DALLAS is 17-38 ATS L/55 after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games. 

NFL Favorites (DALLAS) - with a good offense - averaging 335 or more total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 12-32 ATS L/5 seasons for. a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Seattle to cover

The Vikings had their 5 game win streak snapped last time out, and now enter this home game vs a side they beat earlier this season, but saw them out stated while putting just 220 yards of offense on the board. The Vikings /Horse Shoe might be starting to loosen, and the proverbial wheels looks ready to fall off the cart. Remember that above mentioned game that the Vikings won saw Bears QB Justin Fields get injured and with him fully healthy again I like the Bears odds of being competitive. Note the Vikings are 0-6 ATS on MNF when coming off a loss.  

Vikings are 3-9 ATS L/12 as division home chalk. Bears are 6-1 ATS L/7 Monday night away games. 

Play on Chicago to cover

Prime time games have been fairly low scoring this season with 26 of 34 games failing to eclipse the offered totals number. The Ravens are off playing a Thursday night game last week, and this sets in play a positive under trend as  NFL away sides  off a Thursday nighter as hosts  have  eclipsed the total only 5 of 28 times  L/3 seasons.  Another strong trend associated with this tilt shows AFC  teams like Baltimore with bye week up next  have gone under in their L/13 opportunities. Also  NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BALTIMORE) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 6-27 UNDER  L/10 seasons under for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.BALTIMORE is 9-1 UNDER  when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 29.2 ppg. Harbaugh is 17-4 UNDER ( after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored as the coach of BALTIMORE with a combined average of 40.6 ppg scored.

Meanwhile, the LA CHARGERS are 23-7 UNDER L/30  vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att. in the second half of the season  with a combined average of 35.4 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS are 32-16 UNDER L/48 in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season with a combined average of 44.8 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS are 7-0 UNDER  after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.5 ppg scored.

Play under

Buffalo has had a bit of disappointing season but still rank in the Top 10 on both offense and defense and should be respected here against a foe in a letdown spot after a huge upset win vs KC last time out. NFL home sides  who pulled an  upset vs the defending Super Bowl champion in its last game like the Eagles did , have failed to cash 6 straight times, dating back to the 2020 season. BUFFALO is 14-4 ATS  in road games after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games . McDermott is 12-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of BUFFALO.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) - with a sub par passing D - allowing a comp pct of 64% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 58-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Buffalo to cash

 The Chiefs are off a MNF defeat and Im betting will be primed to play a top tier brand of D, here against Vegas that will help keep this tilt under the offered totals number. NFL favorites off a Monday nighter  home loss   have gone a under in 8 straight games  in the last three seasons. Note: Vegas has gone under in 7 of their L/8 overall.

KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. this seasons with a combined average of  38 ppg scored. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  after the first month of the season this season with a combined average of 37 ppg scored. 

LAS VEGAS is 6-0 UNDER in dome games this season with a combined average of 35.5 ppg scored.LAS VEGAS is 7-1 UNDER  in games played on turf this season with a combined average of 37.8 ppg going on the board.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 71-37 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

Both the Eagles and the Bills have viable offenses averaging more than 26 ppg in out put. BUFFALO is the underdog here which is important considering they have gone 8-0 OVER  as underdogs of +2 or more points in the last four seasons with a combined average of 67.5 ppl scored. On the flip side Sunday NFC Conference home favorites of  3 pts or more like the  Eagles against  AFC Conference opponents like the Bills have eclipsed the Total 9 of the L/10 times. Considering the Eagles home games have seen a combined average of 56.5 ppg scored it will be an easy decision here to go with an over wagering what my projections estimate to be a score that hits in the low 50s. PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 OVER   in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51 ppl scored. My projections also estimate both sides will score at least 20 or more points which is important as the Eagles are 12-1 OVER L/13 when that happens with the combined score clicking in at 61.8 ppg. 

Play over

Joe Burrows is out for the season, and the Bengals as a group Im sure in a letdown mentality and that Im betting plays out here today against a hungry Steelers group that must not be understimated . Note:  Bengals will start veteran backup Jake Browning who will make his first start in just his third game since entering the league in 2019.this is important because QBs  making their first career start vs. Steelers are 1-11 straight-up (SU) in their last 12 games dating back to 1987.

Steelers to cover 

I know both offenses are expected to have a low output production today, but even with the Steelers offensive woes and the Bengals QB precarious situation, my projections still estimate a score in the high 30s which gives close to a FG edge on this offered number. Note: PITTSBURGH is 8-1 OVER   versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 or more  rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 51.9 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (PITTSBURGH) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 30-8 OVER L/30 seasons with the combined average score of 48 ppg scored.

Play over

The Jets have dropped three straight games and are turning to journeyman Tim Boyle under center when they face the Dolphins in a Black Friday clash at East Rutherford, N.J. Im betting he will be a blast of fresh air for this stale Jets attack. I know Miami has done well this season, offensively but the Jets D has been mostly solid and Im betting hold up well here in the cold windy conditions today against a team not so ready to play in the cool weather. 

NY JETS are 19-8 ATS L/27 in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. NY JETS are 29-14 ATS L/43 in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season.

NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 34-9 L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Jets to cover

I know everyone is in love with the SF 49ers , but Im one of these guys who still believes they are a bit over rated. Note:  Im betting this is a close battle and getting a TD here is viable investment opportunity Seattle HC  Pete Carroll   as a home dog in his NFL career, is  9-2 ATS as a when getting f 4 or more points. SEATTLE is 17-6 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO  L/23 at home.

NFL Road favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 18-44 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Seattle to cover

Dallas /Washington games have seen some big total scores go on the board here in Dallas in the past with each combined score easily eclipsing this offering and Im betting nothing changes here today. The combined average score of those tilts rings in at 60.7 ppg. The Commanders own the worst scoring D in the NFL and the Boyz will do damage. But Im also betting the Commanders will also do their share of scoring in what Im betting will be a more back and forth tilt than the linebackers expect. Note: DALLAS: 10-0vOVER  as division  home chalk of  3 points or more and WASHINGTON: 6-0 OVER as division  road dogs of  3 pts or more.  

Play over

Dallas has a long history of less than stellar Thanks Giving Day outings as is evident by a current  5-7 SU and 1-11 ATS run the  the last 12  seasons. Meanwhile, the inconsistent Commanders seem to bring their best stuff for big games against top tier sides like the Cowboys. Hey I know Dallas has looked explosive of late, but it must be noted that from a historical angle they are in a play against situation.Favorites (DALLAS) - after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are just 11-33 ATS 5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.WASHINGTON is 8-1 ATS  in November games over the last 3 seasons.WASHINGTON is 16-5 ATS  in road games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs since 1992.WASHINGTON is 35-19 ATS L/54 in road games after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games.DALLAS is 16-38 ATS L/54   after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games.

Play on Washington to cover

This might seem like a crooked number at just over a key TD  offering , but the Lions are by far the better side, and a line closer to -10 should be on the board, making this a viable lay. Note: Thanksgiving Day favorites of more than 7 points qnd  facing  sub .500 squads , are  6-0 SUATS when coming off consecutive SU/ATS win which the Lions are. DETROIT is 6-0 ATS  in home games vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.DETROIT is 9-2 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Motown to cover

The Chiefs matchup well here  as their top tier defense  will Im betting slow down the  Philadelphia Receivers. On the flipside KCS start QB Mahomes  could easily have a field day  vs Eagles defensive secondary , that  ranks 25th against short passes,  and 28th against the slot   and 28th over the middle of the field, including  32nd against tight ends -which wont be a good omen against  KCs Kelce. . Bottom line is KC has won 4 straight meetings in this series and I dont see things changing this week, with home field advantage on the Chiefs side. At -140 on the ML we have an edge here tonight in Arrow Head. Key Note: Eagles QB Hurts has some nagging injuries and is not 100% for this tilt. 

NFL Road teams with a money line of +130 to -150 (PHILADELPHIA) - off a win against a division rival, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 75% or better ) are 7-30 L/30 seasons for. a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the KC Chiefs 

The Rams in my humble opinion continue to get to much respect from the pundits and betting public and even the lines-makers. Yes, the Rams are rested, but their overall inconsistencies and HC McVay  poor coaching decisions just make them bad bets .Meanwhile, Seattle is a side, that has taken care of business against these types of teams, and with a top tier coach in Carrol on the side lines deserve respect here as a pickem or slight fav according to my power rankings.  LA RAMS are 0-7 ATS in November games over the last 3 seasons.

NFL team vs the money line (LA RAMS) - an average offensive team (18-23 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after scoring 6 points or less last game are 3-23 L/10 seasons for ago against 89% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Seahawks to cover

 The Bills are surprisingly just 5-5 on the season , and really need to get the wheels moving on their season . Their piss poor efforts are thanks in part to turnovers and a banged up D.  Now n desperation mode  Im and playing at home Im betting they come up big here this week vs a Jets side that is playing their 2nd straight road game after a loss at Las Vegas last time out. It must be noted that the Jets are just  1-8 ATS when coming off a SU favorite loss and 1-6 ATS as a underdog after a chalk rating  in their previous tilt. NY JETS are 1-8 ATS  in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons. 

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent off a road loss are 33-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NY JETS are 4-17 ATS L/21 in road games versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season.

Play on Buffalo to cover

The Jags look like weak favs here as they are  just  2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS as division home favorites. I know Tennessee is off two straight losses, but it must be noted that HC Verbal has only failed to cover 1 of his L/8 as an underdog when coming off back-to-back defeats. The public is all over the Jags after the Titans miserable effort last week, but my data base has picked up on a NFL  situational trend that is successful 61% of the time as it focuses on teams of that kind of ugly outing. 

TENNESSEE is 12-3 ATS  vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return over the last 3 seasons.

JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS  against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.Pederson is 6-16 ATS  in weeks 10 through 13 in all games he has coached since 1992

NFL  Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 16-47 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

NF Lteam vs the money line (JACKSONVILLE) - an average offensive team (18-23 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after scoring 6 points or less last game are 3-23 L/10 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors. ( Tennessee lost 20-6 last week at Tampa Bay)

Play on Titans to cover

Texans are off an emotionally charged 30-27 upset of the Bengals in Cincinnati last week and Im betting will be in a letdown situation this Sunday against a Arizona squad with QB Kyle Murray back under center. Yes, he started a little slow after the long lay off last week, but this guy is dangerous two way threat with his legs and arm and makes this Cards side dangerous in the underdog role . Arizona is 5-1 ATS L/6 vs the AFC South. ARIZONA is 11-3 ATS  as a road underdog of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons.

HOUSTON is 6-20 ATS  in home games after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game. HOUSTON is 2-10 ATS in home games after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game. 

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARIZONA) - with a terrible passing D - allowing a comp pct of 64% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 34-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Arizona to cover

These are two of the worst defenses in the NFL. Washington ranks  31 st allowing  27.4 ppg and the NY Giants are ranked 29th allowing  26.6 ppg. Washington has on occasion shown some offensive pop and Im betting they do damage this week, vs a shell shocked group of Giants, while the pedestrian offense of the giants finally gets a defense they can handle. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (NY GIANTS) - terrible offensive team - scoring 14 or less points/game, after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points are 45-19 OVER L/30 seasons for a  70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the over

 Baltimore Ravens host the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday night with both sides entering off a loss. Baltimore claimed a 27-24 victory at Cincinnati in Week 2 and now Im betting on an even wider margin of victory in the rematch. CINCINNATI is 3-14 ATS L/17 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 150  or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season.

NFL  team (BALTIMORE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 42-15 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) - good rushing team (125 to 150 RY/game) against a poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) after 8+ games, after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game are 35-2 L/40 seasons for a 95% conversion for bettors with a average ppg diff  of +10 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. . 

NFL road teams (CINCINNATI) - with a pathetic defense - allowing 6.0 or more yards/play, after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game are 5-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Baltimore to cover

Denver played a big game last time out upsetting the KC chiefs but this has not been a success-full situation for the Broncos in the past as their  0-9 ATS  record would indicate when coming off an underdog victory. Add to that their  a ugly 0-7 ATS L/7 record  in this series vs the Bills. I know the Broncos are well rested but the Bills are not in a good mood after some  sub par efforts and recent loss to the Bengals last time out, and will be primed to bounce back in a big way in front of their home town fans in prime time action. Buffalo also owns a  7-0 SUATS L/7  as chalk vs a  the AFC West. Buffalo  has struggled to cash for their betting backers of late failing in 3 straight opportunities,, but  when this has happened to them previously the Bills are cash friendly  14-1 ATS L/15  against opposition  coming off a victory and  9-0 ATS  playing as hosts. 

McDermott is 8-1 ATS  vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season in the second half of the season as the coach of BUFFALO.

NFL Road underdogs vs. the money line (DENVER) - off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 or more are 21-90 L/30 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -9.9 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Lay the points with the Buffalo Bills 

Jets D, is obviously their strong point and it will be their stopping units that Im betting stop the Raiders cold . A new interim coach had the Raiders playing all out football last week in a lopsided win, vs a hapless looking Giants team last week.However, I now expect all the teams previous inconsistencies to be on full display this Sunday Previous to last weeks loss the Jets had won 3 straight and according to my power rankings are the superior side here today. 

LAS VEGAS is 7-21 ATS  L/28  in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points. 

Play on NY Jets to cover

The Jaguars (6-2) put their  five-game winning streak on the line Sunday when they host the 49ers (5-3), a team that has lost three straight following a 5-0 start. However, from a-recent historical perspective this sis a good spot to support the 49ers . Note: HC  Kyle Shanahan’ is 4-0 ATS L/4 on the road off 3 consecutive ATS losses. This Niners team is just to talented to stay down for long and Im betting they rebound today in a big way. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 10-1 ATS off a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons while Jacksonville  is 7-21 ATS L/28 against NFC West division opponents. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 11-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

NFL team vs the money line (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 22-4 L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN FRANCISCO) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 35-13 ATS L/20 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.

NFL Road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 29-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on SF 49ers

Joshua Dobbs makes his first start for his new team as the Vikings host the Saints (5-4) on Sunday .  Dobbs was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week after passing for 158 yards and two touchdowns , after replacing the youngster Hall, but now as a starter will have his hands full with a tough Saints D. His relative inexperience as a NFL starter will Im betting hinder him. The Saints lead the NFC South over the Falcons (4-5) and Buccaneers (3-5) and have momentum and motivation on their sides as they enter on a two game win streak. 

NEW ORLEANS is 21-9 ATS L/30   in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game.  

Play on the New Orleans Saints to cover

Texans rookie QB C.J. Stroud set a single-game rookie passing record with 470 yards in last week’s come from behind victory vs the Buccaneers. The kid looks like he is the real deal and with the team riding high after that win will ride that momentum into this game against Bengals side that is in a emotional letdowns situation after last weeks all out effort and win vs the Buffalo Bills. HOUSTON is 5-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI in Ohio. 

Houston to cover

We know the Niners can score but after three straight losses you can bet the team will rest their prospects on a big time effort from a rested D, off a bye week. It must be noted NFL road chalk   having suffered 3 or more consecutive  losses  have gone under 12 of the L/13 times darting back to the 2019 season. The Jags despite of a 5 game win streak Im betting will find the offensive sledding tough today but I have enough respect in the Jags D, that SF most likely will also not have any obscene production keeping this combined score from eclipsing this number. 

 NFC road favorites of  3 points or more like the 49ers  have gone  under  in  16 of the L/17 times vs AFC opposition like the Jags , when the offered  Total  is 47  or less . When both  teams  are off their Bye Week like these two side are the under is  0-7 when the totals offering is  46 points or less. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.3 ppg scored. 

NFL Road teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more last game are 63-27 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

NF Lteam where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - excellent passing team (7.3 or more PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games are 102-55 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

All three games played here between these sides have stayed under the total. 

Play under

Colts can score but their D is very suspect and Im betting even the pedestrian offense of the Pats will be able to take advantage of them. Meanwhile, the one positive New England has exhibited this season is a fairly consistent D. The Patriots have shown some signs of brilliance as was the case when they took out Buffalo by a 29-25 score a few weeks ago and must not be underestimated with a HC like Belichick  whose Patriots teams are 3-0 in international games all-time.

NEW ENGLAND is 21-8 ATS L/29  when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) in the second half of the season. 

Play on New England to cover

The Chargers looked very explosive last week vs the    Chicago Bears  last Sunday Night in prime time action as  QB Herbert completed 31-of- 40 passes for 298 yards, 3 touchdowns, with no interceptions. When the Chargers top tier QB is running hot look out as even what has been on occasion a staunch NYJ defense will have it hands full. , Meanwhile, the flip-side the Jets continue to flounder offensively and Im betting they just wont be able to keep up. 

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY JETS) - after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 21-69 ATS L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on San Diego to cover

This pick here for me is simple. REVENGE .sweet sweet revenge- Buffalo  comes out here this week against Cincinnati \ with a playoff-loss revenge as a rallying cry.  This will be the first time in 30 games that the Bills will be lined as underdogs which is just fine with me .  With the Bengals in an emotional letdown state after last weeks big win vs the 49ers they are vulnerable here to regression, as Its hard to play with that intensity against top tier competition two weeks in a row .  I know the Bills have been in a bit of a funk of late from a ATS perspective but  Buffalo is still a highly talented group that deserves respect . BUFFALO is 8-0 ATS L/8  after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread .

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BUFFALO) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 35-12 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Buffalo is 5-2 SU/ATS L/7 at Cincinnati. 

Play on the Bills to cover

Both these sides are ranked top 10 on both defense and offense and are alot more closely matched than the linesmakers are suggesting. After a slow start on D to start their season, the Seahawks have allowed a total 50 points in their L/4 overall, (12.5 ppg) and have upward momentum entering this tilt. You have to remember the Seahawks took out a strong Detroit team on the road, and must not be underestimated in their prowess and grit. Meanwhile, Ravens QB Lamar Johnson has failed to cover 21 of 33 NFL home tilts . 

Carroll is 25-15 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of SEATTLE.

Baltimore is 0-5 ATS L/5 off consecutive wins.BALTIMORE is 8-19 ATS  L/27 in home games vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return.BALTIMORE is 4-13 ATS   as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Seattle to cover

Chiefs looked less than motivated   last time out  against Denver and star QB Mahomes actually failed to throw for a TD for the first time  since the 2021 season spanning 29 games.  It was a shocking loss but it must be noted that HC  Reid  is  22-9 SU in  NFL career in tilts  following a SU favorite loss, including   cashing 6 straight times of late a favorite of 7 or less points . Im betting the Chiefs were caught looking ahead to this game and will be very primed to bounce back in a big way vs a side my power rankings suggest they matchup well against. KANSAS CITY is 11-2 ATS l/13  in road games off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more . 

In Miamis only two games vs top tier squads like the Chiefs they were blasted by DDs vs Buffalo and Philadelphia . Rinse and repeat not out of the question here.

MIAMI is 1-8 ATS   in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Chiefs to cover

Wow were the Lions ever embarrassed last time out by Baltimore. The Lions were media darlings until that game and now they are being dumped like rotten apples by these same media pundits. However the lines-makers are still believers in this Motown crew and in my opinion for good reason. After suffering that humiliating defeat the men from Detroit  now have their feet solidly planted and are ready for immediate redemption against a Vegas side that has a one dimensional offensive aerial attack that cannot run the ball  and also  a inconsistent D. DETROIT is 17-7 ATS  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons. DETROIT is 6-0 ATS  in home games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Campbell is 6-0 ATS  in home games after allowing 35 points or more last game as the coach of DETROIT.

 DETROIT is 7-0 ATS in home games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons.

With that said,  Im betting this is the kind of team the Lions matchup well against. Here at home the Lions are a money making machine for their backers as is evident by a  13-2-1 ATS since the  2021 campaign.  Monday Night Football sides are 31-18 ATS dating back 43 seasons  when coming off a loss of more than 21 points.   I know we are betting into a crooked line, but the true value of this number should become evident as this game unfolds, as my projections make the number  closer to -10 which gives us value on this offering.

Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 

The Cardinals have a very hard time moving the ball behind a clunky offense. as is evident by averaging just 18.1 ppg in production and have scored 9 and 10 points respectively in their L/2 games.Key Trend:  NFC Conference teams who scored 10  pts  or less in each of their last two games  have gone  under 9 straight times. 

. Thats not a good omen against a Baltimore side that is allowing just 13.9 ppg this season on D (tops in the NFL). On the flipisde, the Ravens offense has been pedestrian this season to say the least , averaging just 22.3 ppg in road tilts. I know Arizonas D, has been highly inconsistent this season, probably because of the amount of time they spend on the field, but it must be noted that BALTIMORE is 9-1 UNDER  vs.sub par defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 36.2 ppg scored. The Ravens exhibit  is a grinding style of play that eats up alot of clock time and Im betting nothing changes today.

BALTIMORE is also 9-0 UNDER  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 34.1 ppg scored. BALTIMORE is 7-0 UNDER  after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 25.2 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 13-40 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLbteam where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - with a poor passing D - allowing 230 or more passing yards/game, after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 69-26 L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

Denver lost 19-8 at Kansas City two weeks ago and now Im betting they will be competitive again here at home. 

KANSAS CITY is 0-6 ATS  after a win by 14 or more points over the last 2 seasons. (Beat Chargers 31-17 last week)

DENVER is 15-3 ATS L/18 in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season . 

NFL Road favorites (KANSAS CITY) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 13-46 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Denver is 2-0 ATS L/2 at home in this series. 

Play on Denver Broncos to cover

Carolina is the only winless team in the NFL so far this season, and now at home and in desperation mode against a banged up Texans squad with 11 players on the injured list which is tied with two other teams for the most in the league the Panthers have an edge. HOUSTON is 6-18 ATS L/24  vs. struggling  teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season . 

Carolina is 4-0 ATS L/4 in this series. 

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CAROLINA) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread. are 35-11 ATS over the L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Carolina to cover

The Rams out-gained the Steelers last week and still found a way to lose, while their opponents today bounced back from a ugly loss vs the 49ers in prime time to notch a victory vs the Chargers last week. by a 20-17 count. The Rams may not inspire bettors because of their lack of consistency. However, also despite of being a rebuilding mode, still have a hardcore group of talent that plays with grit and must not be underestimated in their ability to be competitive in this spot situation.

 With a top tier QB Stafford at the helm of the offense, and the Rams ability to run the ball consistently behind an array of backs, Im betting they will give the Cowboys all they can handle . 

McVay is 27-14 ATS in road games against conference opponents as the coach of LA RAMS. McVay is 18-9 ATS  in road games in games played on turf as the coach of LA RAMS. McVay is 24-14 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of LA RAMS.

Rams are 5-1 ATS L/6 vs NFC sides in away games. 

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (DALLAS) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 6-32 L/10 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Rams to cover

It does not matter who starts at QB Daniel Jones or Taylor as their attack will center around star RB  Saquon Barkley who is now healthy and  back in the starting lineup. My power rankings suggest the Giants will have success here this week moving the ball, against a NYJ side that is off a bye week. Rest seems to do some teams well, but this Jets franchise looks to be an outliner as they are  1-10 SU including seven straight losses since 2015.  Yes, I know the Jets have played well of late, but it must be noted  that they are 5-15 ATS L/20 in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread .

NY GIANTS are 13-5 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons.

The Giants are 5-1-1 ATS the last seven games in this series. 

Play on the NYG to cover

New Orleans is a sub par  3-4  despite the fact they have out-yarded five of its seven opponents this season. . They’' re  opponents the Colts are also  3-4 Colts entering this tilt . 

MY power rankings, however,  suggest the linesmkaers have the wrong team favored .  It must be noted that the Colts are 1-8 ATS L/9 as favs.  After playing lights out football against Cleveland last week and still managing to lose Im betting the Colts are vulnerable vs a side like the Saints that have proved to be resilient off a loss , (which they suffered last time out,) cashing 6 of their L/7 after a SU fav defeat. 

Allen is 3-12 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored in all games he has coached since 1992

NFL Road teams (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%) are 22-4 L/40 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 5-24 L/40 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NO Saints to cover

The Fins are expected to be without their entire left side of the offensive line in  this weeks tilt vs the New England Pats. Last week the Dolphins suffered on offense scoring just one TD , because the starting center was out as well as the left tackle , and things could get hairy again this week vs a fairly staunch Pats D. After upsetting the Buffalo Bills last time out, the Pats now have some confidence and momentum and are viable underdogs here today. 

Belichick is 29-18 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.

NEW ENGLAND is 25-10 ATS L/35 in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att.

Play on New England to cover 

 After being upset last time out by Cleveland in a very physical game the 49ers are banged up with key offensive components , RB Christian McCaffrey at less than 100% with an oblique injury and WR Deebo Samuels also questionable.With that said,  the offense maybe more muted than usual . The good news for SF is they own the leagues best D, allowing just 14.5 ppg and Im sure they will give the inconsistent Vikings offense all they can handle. Advantage to the under.

Monday Night NFL Primetime tilts have  seen 7 of 8 games stay under the Total this season with a combined average of 35.9 ppg scored. Monday Night games that have the road side as chalk have gone under 17 of the L/18 times the L/3 seasons. 

Minnesota has only eclipsed the total one time in 6 games this season. Vikings have gone under in their L/4 MNF games.

SF has gone under in 5 of their L/6 back to back road games. Five of the L/seven meetings in this series have stayed on the offered total.

NFL  team against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss as a favorite, when playing on Monday night are 22-2 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 39.6 ppg scored.

Play under

Philadelphia is off a loss last week vs the NYJets but  actually out-gained the Jets by more than 100 yards. Im now betting on a huge bounce back performance by the Eagles against media darlings the Miami Dolphins at home in prime time this Sunday night. I know the Fins offense has been downright explosive, and have looked better than the Eagles attack, but the Eagles D is superior to that of the Dolphins by 56 plus yards a game. Since this tilt features two strong squads , Im betting as is usually the case in big games for the more physical D of the Eagles to be the difference maker. 

NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (MIAMI) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in non-conference games are 7-40 L/10 seasons for a go against  85% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at -8.9 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Philadelphia to cover 

The Broncos enter this game as one of two teams this season without a victory against the spread as is evident by a  0-5-1 record ATS  thanks in part to a  31st ranked  33.3 points per game  D. I know the Broncos held the KC Chiefs to just 14 points last week , but that was in a windy atmosphere that hampered both offenses. Yes, this young Packers team, has had problems scoring of late, but that should change here this week according to my projections. 

Denver is 0-3 SU/ATS at home this season. 

DENVER is 1-10 ATS against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. DENVER is 5-15 ATS  in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

LaFleur is 11-2 ATS  off a road loss as the coach of GREEN BAY.

NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GREEN BAY) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the first half of the season are 35-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (DENVER) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 or more points are 4-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Green Bay to cover

QB Geno Smith’s just does not have consistent flow and chemistry with the offensive part of his teams attack. and as result his TD production is way down .In last weeks loss to the Bengals  Geno Smith threw for 326 yards but the Seahawks failed to score on four of their trips to the red zone. I know the Seahawks have won 3 of their L/4, but I just dont like the way HC Carrols team plays- there is a lack of what I would call the warrior mentality .  On the flip side The Cardinals have led at halftime in 4 of their 6 games before falling apart, so they must not be under estimated in their ability to be competitive for a full 4 quarters at some point this season.  I also believe from watching some practice reports they they have made some adjustment and have decent replacements for some of their missing offensive cogs.

Take the points with the Cardinals 

I know the Giants have struggled  offensively this season ,but it must be noted that their opponents the  Commanders have a underperforming  defense that has   struggled  along the defensive line as is evident by  ranking 25th in pass rush win rate and 16th in pass rush per PFF. Meanwhile on the flipside, the Giants D is improving  as was evident in a recent game against the SF 49ers  and  should pose problems for Washingtons offensive flow. 

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - average offensive team (295 to 335 YPG) against a team with a sub par defense (335 to 370 YPG), after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game are 1-27 L/10 seasons for a 97% go against conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams (WASHINGTON) - with a struggling defense - allowing 6.0 or more yards/play, after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game are 5-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NY Giants to cover

The Browns are off a huge win last week vs the 49ers as underdogs, but are now going to be in an emotional as well as physical letdown scenario after their grueling battle in the trenches. This  makes the Browns vulnerable for a down performance in Indianapolis this Sunday making getting points a viable investment option. 

The Colts lost last time out by DDs to Jacksonville but have proved resilient in the past covering 12 of 14 after a DD SU/ATS defeat. 

INDIANAPOLIS is 32-17 ATS L/49 in home games versus good rushing teams - averaging 130  or more rushing yards/game.

CLEVELAND is 0-5 ATS L/5 coming off a win.

CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasonsCLEVELAND is 2-12 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Stefanski is 15-27 ATS  against conference opponents as the coach of CLEVELAND.

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 33-4 L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Indianapolis Colts to cover

The Totals  line  (41.5) was attacked right out of the gate and for good reasons. After sinking in the hjigh 30s it was attacked again to the upside, and thats where we enter into the frey.   

It must be noted that  New Orleans’ last 16 NFL games have  seen 15 of them stay under the total ... with a  combined  average of only 31.5 combined ppg scored ! Considering their recent difficulties scoring it wont be a hard decision to estimate that the Saints points production will be muted against a up-trending Jaguars D. In the flipside the Saints D has only allowed more than 20 points one time this season, so the Jags inconsistent attack should also have problems producing points. 

Allen  in 12 games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points as the coach of NEW ORLEANS has seen a combined average of 35.5 ppg scored. .NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 UNDER in the first half of the season this season with a combined average of 34.2 ppg scored. 

 NFL THURSDAY games with a Totals Line of 40.0 or less points   have gone under 10 of the last 11 times in non division tilts. Also Thursday night games have seen  Jacksonville go under  in their L/4  dating back 5 seasons, while the Saints  have gone under in 11 of their L/12 Thursday contests dating back 10 seasons.

JACKSONVILLE is 7-0 UNDER   after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game over the last 3 seasons.

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (JACKSONVILLE/NEW ORLEANS) - in a game involving two average passing teams (5.9-6.7 PYA). 70-28 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

The Cowboys were thoroughly embarrassed last week on national tv in prime time vs the SF 49ers, by a 42-10 count and will now be primed for a big bounce back performance. Believe me when I say pros do not like to be embarrassed and you can bet this talented and egotistical but sometimes in cohesive Cowboys group is now fully focused . Note DALLAS is 12-0 ATS  after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. DALLAS is 6-0 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. DALLAS is 9-0 ATS  after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 season.

 DALLAS is 6-0 ATS  after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasonsDALLAS is 6-0 ATS  after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 season.DALLAS is 6-0 ATS  after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons.

The Chargers have looked at average at best this season, with the pass /d, looking very unstable. Note:McCarthy is 7-0 ATS  vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing 260 or more passing yards/game as the coach of DALLAS.

NFL Road favorites vs. the money line (DALLAS) - after allowing 40 points or more last game are 33-4 L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas to cover

After allowing 42 points last week on national tv vs the 49ers the Cowboys will be primed to bounce back defensively this week with what Im betting will be a chip on their shoulders. Quote: "I'm pretty sure (Moore) wants to go out there and put it on us, but you've got to put on some perspective for what we just went through on Sunday and how we're champing at the bit to get out there and get out next game, on the road, so we can kind of just get this taste out of our mouths," Dallas safety Jayron Kearse said.

"We just went out there (against the 49ers) and had an all-time stinker for what this defense is about, and we're ready to go out there and play against somebody as well. So I'm pretty sure he's ready for it and we're ready for it as well."

DALLAS is 8-1 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 34.5 ppg going on the board. 
DALLAS is 8-0 UNDER in road games after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.9 ppg scored. DALLAS is 6-0 UNDER  in road games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41.1 ppg scored.McCarthy is 10-0 UNDER  in road games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of DALLAS with a combined average of 38.6 ppg scored. Dallas has gone under in 11 of their L/12 back to back road games.

Dallas has gone under in 6 of their L/7 vs AFC West. 

Chargers have gone under in 12 of their L/15 as home dogs of 4 point or less.

NFL Road teams against the total (DALLAS) - good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more last game are 62-27 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

The reason for this rocketing off the opening line is because New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones will not play Sunday night against the Buffalo Bills because of a neck injury. However according to my power rankings this kine of line shift is still unjustified and over doen to extent giving us value with the underdog. Veteran backup Tyrod Taylor, who spent three seasons with the Bills, will start for New York and instead of being a hinderance could actually be a breath of fresh air for a stumbling banged up side. The Bills win but by not as much as the linesmakers might anticpate. We have already had sharp money beat back the line from a high of +16. 

NFL .600 or better sides returning from London, coming off a SUATS loss like the Bills, are 0-5 SUATS all-time.  Bills are off a  loss to the Jaguars in London last week. 

NY GIANTS is 4-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO since 1992 in games played in Buffalo. 

NFL Home teams (BUFFALO) - outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 18-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate.

NFL Favorites (BUFFALO) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games are 15-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Giants to cover

These two teams have inefficient offenses and solid defenses and Im expect a very close game, but the desperate Patriots Im betting have the edge on this type of line offering. With owner Kraft ready to fire Bill Belichick Im looking for the old ball coach to craft some magic here today.

Raiders are just 2-11 ATS L/13 vs AFC East. 

NFL Road teams (NEW ENGLAND) - off an embarrassing loss by 21 points or more as a home favorite are 24-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ENGLAND) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the first half of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Patriots to cover

SF 49ers QB Brock Purdy are getting alot of headlines , especially after destroying the Dallas Cowboys on national TV this past Sunday. However, Im betting Purdy will be in a regressionary mode this week after that explosion vs the Cowboys as he goes against NO .1 defense in the NFL ( Cleveland Browns) that has the physicality to deal with the 49ers . With that said Im betting on a much closer game than the lines-makers public line is estimating. 

CLEVELAND is 9-1 ATS L/10 against teams who commit 0.75 or less turnovers/game on the season.

Cleveland 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 at home in this series dating back to 1992.

NFL Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 8-31 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Browns to cover

 .After a two week stint in the Uk Im betting the Jags are slow out of the gate as they get acclimated to home cooking again. Home sweet home, is not so sweet for the Jaguars when  Trevor Lawrence is the QB as is evident by a  1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS  record as a home favorite . On the flip-side with under rated  QB Gardner Minshew back behind center, for the Colts Im expecting them to be ready to continue to heat up on offense.   Minshew completed 19 of 23 passes for 171 yards along with recording a positive  passer rating of 112.1 in his only start this season and is more than capable of lighting up this inconsistent Jags secondary. Jacksonville  is just 1-15 ATS as a favorite if it was an underdog in its previous game (which they were). 

Play on Indy Colts to cover 

Carolina is off a crap performance last time out in a 42-24 loss to the Lions, but have proven resilient in the past . CAROLINA is 11-2 ATS L/13 after allowing 40 points or more last game . I know Miami has proven themselves to be dynamic on offense so far this season, but will now play without injured star RB Devon Achane , who had 7 TDS in his first 4 games. I also know QB Bryce Young has not looked good out of the gate this season, but the kid is still learning the ropes and is more than capable of a big game. 

NFL Favorites (MIAMI) - with an excellent offense - averaging 360 or more total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 8-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Carolina to cover

Im betting Carolinas game plan is  to really slow this game down, by running the ball a great deal while taking their time with snaps. The Panthers D, has really been beat up on of late and Im sure a concerted effort to defend aggressively was the mantra in practice this week. /note: CAROLINA is 6-0 UNDER  after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 31.8 ppg scored. Meanwhile, I expect the Dolphins attack will not be as potent as usual as they deal with the injury to key RB RB Devon Achane who has 7 TDs in his first 4 games. This missing cog for the Fins makes them more one dimensional offense and easier to read. Advantage to the under 

NFL non-division home favorites of  8 or more points  like Miami is here today  have seen 19 of 22 tilts stay on the low side of the Total  when the offered number is  45 or more points.  

NFL  team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 38-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the under

 Cincinnati looked good against the Arizona Cardinals last time out and are gaining momentum entering this tilt against the visiting  Seahawks.  Trends also back the the  Bengals as they  own a  7-0 ATS record  when coming off a SU away  chalk victory and are , 12-1 ATS  in tilts  when both teams are coming off a win, Meanwhile the Seahawks are just  1-10 ATS in games  after allowing 7 or fewer points  last time out . CINCINNATI is 12-1 ATS  after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons. With QB Joe Burrow looking close to 100%   after a  right calf strain, Im betting the Bengal's are the right side. Burrow looked mobile and completed  36 of 46 passes for 317 yards and three touchdowns with one interception.

I know Seattle has really been tough on opponents run against allowing just 3.18 ypc, and the Bengals have struggled running the ball but CINCINNATI is 15-4 ATS  after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games . 

 CINCINNATI is 15-3 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.CNCINNATI is 6-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game over the last 2 seasons.CINCINNATI is 13-4 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Cincinnati to cover

Houston (2-3) managed just one touchdown and settled for four field goals in a 21-19 road loss to Atlanta in Week 5 and I truly did not like the way they looked in that tilt especially when trying to finish drives. Meanwhile, the Saints had season highs of 42 rushes and 136 yards on the ground against New England Pats and won 34-0. That type of game plan Im sure is on the agenda again and according to my power rankings gives the visitor a significant edge on what is is essentially a pickem line. 

NEW ORLEANS is 21-8 ATS L/29 in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game.. NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS  in road games after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game which was the case last time out. 

NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the first half of the season are 32-9. ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the New Orleans Saints to win 

We expecting sustained heavy winds tonight in KC, which Im betting hampers these offenses. Add to that the below applicable  trends

Reid is 13-1 UNDER  in home games vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average 35.9 ppg. Reid is 13-4 UNDER in home games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 35.3 ppg.Reid is 15-4 UNDER  in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6 or more  yards/play as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 45.4 ppg scored.Reid is 15-4 UNDER  off 2 consecutive road wins in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored. 

Payton is 12-3 UNDER  when playing on a Thursday in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 43.6 ppg scored.DENVER is 15-3 UNDER after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992 with a combined average of 39 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 37-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - after 4 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored are 37-10 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

The pundits and media love how well RB Christian  Mcaffery has played so far for the 49ers. But it must be noted that the Cowboys are 9-2 (.818) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .433. Also the Cowboys defense has allowed scores on 5% of opponent drives in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 34%. So as this game goes on Im betting on the Cowboys to be hard to score on in what Im aslo betting will be a very competitive affair with the points being golden in the end. 

DALLAS is 9-1 ATS  in October games over the last 3 seasons. DALLAS is 16-3 ATS  in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 3-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors. McCarthy is 13-3 ATS  vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game in all games he has coached since 1992

NFL Home teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - out-gaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Cowboys are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Francisco.

The Eagles are being over rated here today against the Rams. In the Phillies first game of the season, they were out gained handily by the Patriots and still found a way to win, and three of their victories were all one score decisions, including last weeks OT winner. Meanwhile, on the flipside the Rams have registered better offensive and defensive numbers than the Eagles, to this point in the campaign and must be respected here getting points on their own home field. 

PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS  after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons.The Eagles have lost 16 of their 25 SU vs NFC West. 

LA RAMS are 15-4 ATS L/19 in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing 3.5 or less rushing yards/carry .

NFL Favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - solid team - out-gaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games are 12-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Rams to cover

We have an early season, QB alert on board as the Houston Texans’ C.J. Stroud is playing a top tier brand of football under center  Entering this game he is off a  280 yard and two touchdown performance last week in a  30-6 thumping  of the  Pittsburgh Steelers . It must be noted that he is the  first QB in league history to average 300 passing yards  in the first tilts of the campaign and has given up no interceptions so far . The same cannot be said, about Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder who has seen his team score just 6 and 7 points in their last two trips to the gridiron including last weeks London England loss to the Jags. Now coming off a trip across the pond Im betting the Falcons will be a bit jet lagged and for the offense to continue to plummet. 

Atlanta is 0-7 ATS L/7 non division games. 

NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 5-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 4-24 ATS L/10 seasons for ago against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texans to cover

Giants have been embarrassed a couple times already this season, and are off a ugly home loss on Monday night vs Seattle. It must be noted however, that the Gmen are 6-0 ATS L/6 after a MNF battle. With Miami now hot with a reality blow last week to their egos vs the Bills, Im betting it will be  hard for the Fins to get motivated and up off the matt vs a side that hardly brings respect  with them.

NY GIANTS are 13-4 ATS off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992.

MIAMI is 1-9 ATS in October games over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Road underdogs of 10.5 or more points (NY GIANTS) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 22-2 ATS L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors. 

Take the points with the Giants to cover

I know the Panthers have not won this season,  but they  held two of their four opponents  to season-low yardage and must not be underestimated in this ability to be competitive vs the Lions today. Note: Reich is 15-3 ATS  L/18 in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350  or more yards/game in all games he has coached in his career. 

Carolina is 16-8 ATS L/24  as underdogs against the NFC North . 

Detroit is 1-6 ATS L/7 as non division home favs of 3 points or more. 

Carolina is 4-1 ATS L/5 in this series.

NFL home favorites (DETROIT) - outgaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Carolina to cover

After last weeks embarrassing loss to the Texans Im betting on a huge rebound here today against the Ravens  by a 30-6 count. Pros dont like to be embarrassed and believe or not the culture of grit still remains in the Steel City. PITTSBURGH is 10-2 ATS  in home games off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992. PITTSBURGH is 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons.

The last 4 meetings in this series has seen the Steelers win 3 of those games with all of the tilts being low scoring physical grinders with each game decided by 3 points or less . Im betting nothing changes today. 

BALTIMORE is 3-11 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 33-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BALTIMORE) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Steelers to cover

 Washingtons issues right now are on defense where they have allowed 33, 37, 34 points in their L/3 games. Also the Commanders are now in an emotional  letdown spot after playing all out football against the Eagles last time out  before eventually losing in OT. I know the bad news Bears are really reeling, but after a 0-4 start will desperate for a win and in desperation mode have an edge vs a vulnerable Commanders side . 

WASHINGTON is 16-32 ATS  as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

NFL Home favorites (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss, in the first half of the season are 25-61 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - after allowing 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games against opponent after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 55-24 ATS L/30 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Bears to cover

The Giants need a won here desperately as after tonight's game they go against, Dolphins and Bills in successive weeks. I know NYG has a some issues with key 
RB Barkely out , but Im betting QB Daniels and company can slice and dice a weak Seattle secondary, and a /defensive group that ranks 27th in EPA per play and 26th in Success Rate. Gmen are 7-1 ATS when coming off a loss and 12-2 ATS when coming off a Thursday prime prime time  tilt. 

NY GIANTS are 11-3 ATS vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. NY GIANTS are 18-5 ATS L/23 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games.

Carroll is 15-25 ATS  as a road favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of SEATTLE

NFL Underdogs or pick (NY GIANTS) - terrible passing team (5.3 or less PY/Att.) against a horrible passing defense (7.3 or more  PY/Att.), after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 23-4 L/40 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY GIANTS) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 39-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NY Giants to cover

Raiders QB Garoppolo may not start this week, but one thing is for sure he is not performing optimally right now and if hes replaced I dont believe the it will be a difference maker. Despite of this QB situation with Vegas, I do believe they matchup well here overall vs a San Diego Chargers side that played hard last week in Minnesota for their first win of the season, and is now in an emotional letdown situation . Chargers QB Herbert finished 40-of-47 for a career-high 405 yards and three touchdowns against the Vikings, but now regression must be expected. 

Bottom line : Considering the QB situation for Vegas I expect star RB Jacobs  who rushed for a league-leading 1,653 yards and scored 12 touchdowns last season, averaging 4.9 yards a carry to be key here in keeping the Raiders on the edge of victory today. It must be noted that the Chargers have looked sub par on  on defense this season,   ranking 31st in the NFL in total defense (450.7 ypg allowed) and 32nd in passing defense (337.0 ypg allowed). So even if Hoyer or the rookie Aidan O'Connell starts the Chargers sub par secondary should seal their fate with Jacobs setting up the pass with his legs. 

A CHARGERS are 14-28 ATS (L/42  in home games after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game.

NFL Home teams (LA CHARGERS) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games are 6-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Raiders to cover

Philadelphia got blasted last season in embarrassing fashion in a  Monday Night home loss as double-digit favs  to the Commanders last season and now want revenge. However, like Mick Jagger of the iconic Rolling stones  likes to say ' you don't always get what you want. With that said, Im betting on another gritty performance from a never say die group of commodores in what will be a much closer game the the lines-makers are estimating. Washington HC Rivera is 21-9 ATS L/30 vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game in all games he has coached. 

NFL team (WASHINGTON) - off a home loss, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 47-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington to cover

Bengals are on short rest after a grinding and physical battle on Monday night  vs the Rams, and are not 100% at the quarter back position with Joe Burrows playing banged up with a bad ankle. Here against a very strong defensive Titans front the Bengals Im betting have a hard time being consistent offensively. Advantage Titans. 

TENNESSEE is 11-3 ATS  vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return over the last 3 seasons. TENNESSEE is 8-1 ATS  in October games over the last 3 seasons.TENNESSEE is 16-5 ATS   in home games after scoring 9 points or less last game. 

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving two poor rushing teams (70-95 RY/game), after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 6-21 L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tennessee to cover

Carolina despite of a top tier offense, are now in desperation mode as they search for their first victory of the season .  Their issues have come mostly because of turnovers , but that should rectify itself as the season progresses. Luckily for the Vikes they take on a 0-3 Carolina side that is less talented and even more inept as is evident by -9 ppg diff on the season. Im betting on  quarterback Kirk Cousins, who enters Week 4 with a league-leading 1,075 passing yards to really light things up here this Sunday as the Vikings come away with a convincing victory. 

CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS n home games vs. sub par punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.CAROLINA is 3-12 ATS  off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover

The Colts offense is less than spectacular and that corresponds to  QB Gardner Minshew’s record of 2-10 SU in his L/12 trips to the gridiron. I know the Indy thanks  to some strong D and  fine FG kicking found a way past the Ravens last week for their 2nd straight win , but  it must be noted that the Colts despite of their decent run have been outgained in each of their games this season. . It must also be noted that the Colts are  0-8-1 ATS at home when coming off consecutive SUATS victories, .  Add to that Sean McVay is 5-0 ATS when coming off a loss in his career, against opposition coming off a SU underdog victory. I like the Rams coaching their overall team chemistry especially Stafford at QB  and feel strongly they come out of here with a cover this Sunday. 

NFL Road teams (LA RAMS) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 34-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Rams to cover

After allowing 37 points in. a loss vs Houston last week you can bet this Jacksonville coaching staff went to work here to motivate their embarrassed players into having a much better and concentrated effort this Sunday. It must also be noted that after scoring just nine points in a 17-9 loss to Kansas City, Jacksonville failed to score in the first half last week and its obvious their offense is just not clicking . Thats    evident by  quarterback Trevor Lawrences  one touchdown pass record in his last two games. Here against a Flacons side, that have been solid defensively I just cant see things getting much better from a production standpoint. On the flipside the Flacons depend greatly on their ground attack to keep the pressure of their young QB Ridder who is in his 2nd season. With that said, Im betting on alot of clock being eaten up here by the Falcons via the run game  and for a much better effort from Jacksonville defensively to help us stay under the number here this week in London. 

Jacksonville  is 10-2 UNDER after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons.

ATLANTA is 14-4 UNDER vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons.

  Games played at WEMBLEY STADIUM   have gone a  perfect 6-0 UNDER  in the last L/5 seasons, with an average of only 35.3 combined PPG going up on the scoreboard.

Play on the under

Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence,   has just one touchdown pass in the last two games and its obvious this team is in a funk, and according to my power rankings fade material in this current form vs a solid Falcons D. Here in a game against and Atlanta side built to run the ball, Im betting a grinding clock will keep the Jags out of tempo on offense and cause more problems for them. What Im saying is this is not a good matchup for the Jags. Note:JACKSONVILLE is 5-16 ATS  against NFC South division opponents since 1992 and is 1-9 ATS  in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Atlanta owns a  2-0 ATS record  in the international series and have covered their L/ 6 ATS  vs the Jags. 

Play on Atlanta to cover

The Bengals QB Joe  Burrow  is not 100% after he aggravated his right calf strain in Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. His calf has not been 100% since training camp started. Burrow did not practice Thursday  and was expected to practice Monday morning but even if he plays will not be as mobile as he needs to be against aggressive groups of Rams. Meanwhile, Rams star QB Stafford recently  passed Peyton Manning for the third-most passing yards by a player in his first 200 regular-season games (52,723 yards in 193 games). Rams won their first game of the season, but lost to their nemesis last week the  Niners. Stafford completed 34 of 55 passes for 307 yards and is primed to come back strong this week vs what has looked like a unstable Bengals secondary so far this season. I know the Bengals are desperate for a win, but without a healthy Burrows at the helm of the offense that task will not be an easy one. NFL Home favorites (CINCINNATI) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, in the first half of the season are 34-83 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Rams to cover

Bears are not a respected team, and after 12 straight losses are a side that is not getting much respect from the linesmakers against what is obviously a far superior side the KC Chiefs. The Bears are not expected to be competitive this week, but I think few are considering that the Chiefs may not be very motivated while the opposite will hold true for a Bears group playing loose and with nothing to lose. With that said Im willing to take the DD point spread in complete contrarian action. KANSAS CITY is 0-8 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons

NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Bears have covered 3 of their L/4 visits to KC. 

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover

Im not buying in on a Seattle resurgence,  and this week against Carolina Im betting on an emotional letdown scenario to hamper the home side. Last week the Seahawks, grabbed a overtime victory against the  Detroit Lions in a heart pumping affair.  Meanwhile,  the Panthers were edged out by a FG  at  home against  the New Orleans Saints in prime time  Monday night action. I myself see major upward momentum and confidence building in Carolina, Note:  Seahawks are 0-4 ATS  L4  vs the NFC South,  

Also I know Carolina rookie quarterback Bryce Young, the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft in April, is banged up and  didn't participate in Wednesday's walk-through practice because of an ankle injury and is questionable to play against the Seahawks (1-1) But Veteran Andy Dalton is a more than capable starter for the Panthers and could easily make the Panthers offense more cohesive.

SEATTLE is 1-8 ATS  after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home favorites (SEATTLE) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 11-39 ATS since 1983 for a 78% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Carolina Panthers to cover

These teams have a recent history of taking part in some high scoring affairs as is evident by the L/7 meetings eclipsing the total with a combined average of 52.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. I know Carolinas offense has not looked all that explosive out of the gate this season, but they    do go  against a Seattle side that is off a 37-31 slugfest last time out and that also allowed 30 points in a loss to the Rams in week 1 play. With that said, my projections estimate both these sides will score 21 plus points. SEATTLE is 10-0 OVER   when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons. CAROLINA is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

Carroll is 31-17 OVER after a win by 6 or less points as the coach of SEATTLE

NFL team against the total (SEATTLE) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival are 26-6 OVER L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

Miami has started their season at 2-0 while their opponents the Denver Broncos  have lost their first two games but by a combined 3 points. Denver has consistently been competitive but just cant get over the hump for a W, but when getting points must respected from. a ATS perspective. Denver has lost 9 straight games where it had the lead at half time. Quote "As we've learned the past few years, almost every game is one score -- seven points, three points," Broncos center Lloyd Cushenberry III said.  Quote "We need to finish those games 'cause we've lost too many over the past four years that I've been here." end quote. Today Im betting new HC Sean Payton finds a way to stay in this game here in Miami against a Fins side, that is coming home after two hard fought affairs, vs the Chargers and Patriots and could easily be in a emotional letdown situation this week. Its not an easy proposition to keep your energy levels up as a team for three straight games in the ultra physical NFL. Note: HC Payton  24-6-2 ATS in his NFL career against sides  coming off a victory.

MIAMI is 47-22 ATS (+22.8 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Play on Denver Broncos to cover

Houston has owned the Jags in previous  meetings here in Jacksonville Florida winning   15 of their L/18 visits here  SU and have cashed  5 of their L/6  SU/ATS as a underdog in this series overall.  I know  Houston has lost both their games so far this season, but they did win the stats war in both games and must not be underestimated in their ability to get the job done here again. I know The Jags  smashed the host Texans 31-3 in Week 17 of last season to end a nine-game losing streak against Houston, but now with big time revenge on board and the desperation of needing a victory Im betting on a big time effort from the visitors. 

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has never won at home as a NFL favorite going 0-4 ATS while losing 3 of 4 SU. It must also be noted that  Jacksonville is  1-14 ATS as a favorite if they  were a underdog in their last game. JACKSONVILLE is 22-38 ATS L/60 after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better.

NFL Home favorites (JACKSONVILLE) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, in the first half of the season are 34-83 ATS L/5 seasons for a  go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Texans to cover 

The Patriots have beaten the Jets 14 straight times  and after going down 0-2 already are desperate for a win , which is unfortunate for QB  Zach Wilson and his NY Jets. Considering  Bill Belichick 18-3 SU L/21  in games when coming off back to back losses Im betting the Pats winning streak against the Jets remains intact. Also it must be noted without Aaron Rodgers under center for the Jets they will have major problems moving the ball. 

Play on New England to win

I like the Chargers here this week despite of some early season ugly defensive performances especially in the secondary. . As result of their defensive issues they are 0-2 with both losses coming via FG or less margin of defeat,    This a very good Chargers team and their record is not indicative their true talents   On the flipside, Ive watched the Vikings and they are a team that is set for major regression, both on offense and defense, and thanks to a -6 turnover margin are side that does not deserve respect here even at home, especially against an extremely hungry team that is much deeper in my opinion. 

NFL Road teams (LA CHARGERS) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (LA CHARGERS) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 24-5 ATS since 1983 for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chargers to cover

Oddsmakers aren’t giving the Giants much of a chance this week. However, my projections estimate this line is bloated and gives us value with the road underdog. The The Giants proved their offense can be explosive as was evident in a  31 points  second half output against the Cardinals in Week 2 for a come from behind victory and must be underestimated in their ability to some damage here this week in San Francisco. I know the Gmens top tier  RB Saquon Barkley is banged up and may not play, but even then my projections say this is just to much lumber for the 49ers to lay. Advantage Giants.

NY GIANTS are 22-9 ATS L/31 in road games after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game .NY GIANTS are 18-4 ATS  L/22 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games.

NFL Road teams (NY GIANTS) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for  a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams (NY GIANTS) - after playing their last game on the road, in September games are 26-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NY Giants to cover