Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-01-24 | Southern Miss v. UL - Lafayette -7 | Top | 61-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana-Lafayette minus the points over Southern Miss at 8:30 pm et on Friday. Louisiana-Lafayette has inexplicably gone in the tank dropping four straight games both SU and ATS entering Friday's regular season finale against Southern Miss. Included in that four-game slide was a stunning 82-71 loss at Southern Miss last Saturday. I look for the Ragin' Cajuns to break out of their funk and exact some swift revenge on their home floor on Friday. The Golden Eagles have done well to hang onto sixth place in the Sun Belt Conference standings - tied with the Ragin' Cajuns, in fact. They've certainly had some good fortune along the way. Note that KenPom has them ranked 224th nationally but 47th in terms of its 'luck rating' metric. I simply feel we'll see Southern Miss' defense get overwhelmed in this particular spot. Note that the Eagles have allowed 25 or more made field goals in nine of their last 11 games with six of their last nine foes hoisting up more than 60 field goal attempts. That should be music to the ears of the Ragin' Cajuns shooters, noting that Louisiana-Lafayette is desperate for a breakout and plays fast having gotten off 64 or more field goal attempts in four of its last five contests. Defensively, the Ragin' Cajuns have admittedly been inconsistent lately but have limited four of their last six opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. They rank a respectable 140th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom despite playing fast, checking in 118th in the nation in adjusted tempo. Note that Southern Miss is 0-9 ATS as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 9.0 points over the last three seasons including an 0-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Louisiana-Lafayette is 18-13 ATS in its last 31 contests as a home favorite including a 6-4 ATS record this season. Take Louisiana-Lafayette (10*). |
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03-01-24 | Flyers v. Capitals UNDER 6 | 2-5 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams were in need of a chance to catch their breath after a couple of wild, high-scoring contests and they both got just that with consecutive days off leading up to this key divisional showdown. Note that the Capitals have two games-in-hand on the Flyers and sit just six points behind them in the Metropolitan Division standings. Needless to say, this game has 'playoff-like atmosphere' written all over it (I admittedly hate that cliche). While the Flyers have scored a whopping 12 goals in their last two games they average just 3.0 goals per game on the season. For our purposes, they've been quite stingy defensively on the road, allowing only 2.8 goals per contest. Meanwhile, the Capitals check in averaging just 2.6 goals per game on the season with that number rising to just 2.7 at home. While the 'over' did cash in the most recent matchup between these two teams we haven't seen consecutive 'over' results in this series since a four-game streak back in 2021. Note that the 'under' is 27-16 in the Flyers last 43 games played on two days' rest including a 9-3 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 8-5 in Philadelphia's last 13 contests following consecutive games that totalled at least eight goals including a 2-1 record in that spot this season. The 'under' is 33-14 in the Caps last 47 contests after losing their previous game by five goals or more, as is the case here. That situation has presented itself just three times in the last three seasons (all three occurring this season in fact) with the 'under' going 2-1. Take the under (8*). |
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02-29-24 | Gonzaga v. San Francisco UNDER 155.5 | 86-68 | Win | 100 | 29 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Gonzaga and San Francisco at 11 pm et on Thursday. The 'under' has cashed in three of four meetings between these two teams going back to the start of last season including the lone previous matchup this year. With this game being played at the Chase Center in San Francisco, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest than most. San Francisco has played just once previously on this court this season, securing a 76-58 win over Minnesota back in November. The Golden Gophers had a miserable time trying to break through against the Dons defense in that game, connecting on just 22-of-50 field goal attempts. Note that San Francisco ranks 42nd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom). The Dons also check in just 202nd in adjusted tempo. They're certainly locked-in defensively right now having held three straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals and eight of their last nine foes to 25 or fewer. Gonzaga obviously likes to play much faster and is currently on an incredible offensive tear. With that being said, there shouldn't be any intimidation factor at play here as San Francisco has held it to just 27 and 24 made field goals in the last two meetings. Note that the 'under' is 15-13 in Gonzaga's last 28 games played on a neutral court including a 4-1 mark this season. The 'under' is also 12-7 in the Zags last 19 games following consecutive double-digit wins over conference opponents, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 14-4 in San Francisco's last 18 contests played on a neutral court including a 3-1 mark this season. The 'under' is also 13-8 in the Dons last 21 games after a home win in which they scored 85 points or more. Take the under (8*). |
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02-29-24 | Jets v. Stars UNDER 6 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Jets got off to a fast start scoring three goals in the first period and cruised to a 4-2 win over the Blues two nights ago. Now they head out on the road for a matchup against the Stars who will be bent on bouncing back following a 5-1 drubbing in Colorado on Tuesday. Winnipeg has been as stingy as they come defensively on the road this season, holding the opposition to just 2.4 goals per game. In fact, Jets road games have averaged only 5.2 total goals. That's a stark contrast to Dallas' play at home where it has averaged 4.0 goals per contest while giving up 3.4. With that being said, the Stars are really struggling offensively right now. They've scored two goals or less in five straight games and three or fewer in seven consecutive matchups. They enter this game riding a five-game 'under' streak. Note that the 'under' is 48-38 in the Jets last 86 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 12-7 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 22-10 in Winnipeg's last 32 contests after scoring four goals or more in consecutive games including a 5-2 record in that spot this season. While you might think the Stars 'under' streak is due to turn they've actually seen the 'under' go 47-38 in their last 85 contests following five straight 'under' results including a 12-5 mark in that situation over the last three seasons. The 'under' is also a long-term 20-12 in Dallas' last 32 games after being held to two goals or less in five straight games. That situation has come up just once in the last three seasons and the 'under' prevailed on that occasion as well. Take the under (8*). |
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02-29-24 | Hawks v. Nets UNDER 223.5 | 97-124 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Hawks enter this game riding a four-game 'under' streak while the Nets have seen each of their last five contests stay 'under' the total. I look for those streaks to continue on Thursday. Atlanta is obviously a different team without Trae Young. In two games since his injury, the Hawks have actually knocked down 41 and 46 field goals but got off 90 or more field goal attempts in both of those contests. It's defensively where Atlanta has really turned it up, allowing just 35 made field goals in each of its last two games. The Hawks catch a plum draw here with the Nets reeling offensively. Brooklyn has knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in five of its last six games and 41 or less in eight of its last 10 contests. In fact, it's been a struggle for the Nets just getting shots off let alone knocking them down. They check in having hoisted up 81 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last six games. With that being said, Brooklyn has at least been slowing the opposition, allowing 84 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games. Meanwhile, the Hawks aren't quite the same offensive team on the road compared to at home. They have made good on 40, 42, 40, 36, 39, 43, 42 and 36 field goals over their last eight road contests. The 'under' is 17-15 in the Hawks last 32 games following a double-digit home win including a 3-1 mark in that situation this season. Brooklyn has seen the 'under' go 12-9 in its last 21 contests following a loss by 20 points or more including a 5-2 record in that spot this season. Take the under (8*). |
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02-28-24 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 235.5 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Opponents are walking all over the Lakers right now, getting off 93 or more field goal attempts in each of their last five and 12 of their last 13 games overall. The Clippers should be salivating at the opportunity for an offensive breakout here after being held to 42 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven games. Paul George won't be in the lineup for the Clips on Wednesday but I still expect them to thrive offensively against a Lakers squad that has been lit up for 44 or more made field goals in 12 of its last 15 games. On the flip side, the Lakers have connected on more than 40 field goals in eight straight games and 47 or more in five of those contests. The Clippers have surprisingly been matador-like defensively in recent weeks, allowing four straight and 12 of their last 16 opponents to hoist up at least 90 field goal attempts. Note that the 'over' is 35-17 in the Lakers last 52 road games with the total set at 230 points or higher including a crisp 15-3 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 32-25 in the Clippers last 57 contests following an upset loss against a division opponent, as is the case here, including a 4-1 record in that situation over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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02-28-24 | Virginia +1.5 v. Boston College | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia plus the points over Boston College at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I see this as a 'get right' spot for the reeling Cavaliers as they look to snap their two-game losing streak and cover the spread for the first time in five games. Even in Saturday's double-digit loss to North Carolina, Virginia still held the Tar Heels to just 16 made field goals. In fact, the Cavaliers have allowed only two of their last 12 opponents to knock down more than 24 field goals. It's been the Virginia offense that has struggled lately but this is a favorable matchup in that regard. Boston College has been matador-like defensively in recent weeks, allowing its last seven foes to make good on 30, 28, 30, 30, 27, 28 and 27 field goals. Virginia did drop the most recent meeting in this series last February but it was four straight wins prior to that and the Cavaliers haven't lost consecutive matchups with the Eagles since 2011. Note that Virginia is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 games on the road with the line set between +3 and -3 including a 2-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Boston College is 8-10 ATS in its last 18 contests after giving up 80 points or more in its previous game including a 2-6 ATS record in that situation this season. Take Virginia (8*). |
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02-28-24 | Blues v. Oilers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Edmonton at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Blues are reeling right now, losers of four of their last five games as they try to hang on in the Western Conference playoff race. They gave up three first period goals before settling down and eventually dropping a 4-2 decision in Winnipeg last night. Note that scoring has been a problem for the Blues on the road this season where they average just 2.6 goals per game. Meanwhile, the Oilers have been relatively stingy at home where they've held the opposition to just 2.9 goals per contest. Note that the 'under' is 21-18 in St. Louis' last 39 games following a loss against a division opponent including an incredible 9-2 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 15-13 with the Blues coming off consecutive losses by two goals or more, as is the case here, including a 6-1 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 24-15 in the Oilers last 39 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which it scored five goals or more, which is the situation there after the Blues secured a 6-3 victory over them back on February 15th. That situation has cashed at a 9-5 clip this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-28-24 | Cavs v. Bulls UNDER 216.5 | 123-132 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Cavaliers were involved in a high-scoring barn-burner at home against the Mavericks last night, securing a 121-119 victory thanks to a last season Max Strus heave. It wasn't a banner performance defensively from Cleveland but there's reason to believe we'll see it bounce back in that regard on Wednesday. Note that last night marked only the 11th time all season the Cavs allowed an opponent to knock down 45 or more field goals. On the 10 previous occasions, they allowed an average of just 37.5 made field goals in their next contest. The Bulls aren't exactly thriving offensively right now as they've connected on 40 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games. In fact, it's been tough enough for them to just get shots off let alone knock them down, hoisting up 83 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four contests. On the flip side, Chicago does check in having held eight of its last 10 foes to 42 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back five games to find the last time the Bulls allowed an opponent to get off more than 88 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Cavs have knocked down 44 or fewer field goals in six straight contests. The 'under' is 59-51 in the Cavs last 110 road games including a 17-10 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 31-16 in the Bulls last 47 division games including a 7-4 record this season. Take the under (8*). |
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02-28-24 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State -10 | 45-58 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Oklahoma at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Iowa State has undoubtedly had this game circled on its calendar since dropping a 71-63 decision on the road against Oklahoma back in early January. Since then the Cyclones have gone on a tear, going 10-3 SU and 9-3-1 ATS over its last 13 games. With that being said, they enter Wednesday's rematch having failed to deliver the cash in consecutive games. I look for that to change here. Iowa State is locked-in defensively right now having held seven straight and nine of its last 10 opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. That's in stark contrast to the Sooners who have allowed 28, 26 and 35 made field goals over their last three contests, albeit aided by overtime in their most recent game. Speaking of that most recent game, it was a big one for Oklahoma as it went on the road and staged a minor upset win over rival Oklahoma State. Note that the Sooners are just 21-24 ATS in their last 45 games following an upset win on the road including a 2-4 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons (0-2 ATS this season). They're also just 16-27 ATS in their last 43 contests following a win by three points or less in-conference. Meanwhile, Iowa State is 40-26 ATS in its last 66 contests off a home victory but non-cover including a 9-3 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. The Cyclones have been an excellent positive momentum play having gone 36-24 ATS in their last 60 games following a win including a 13-6 ATS mark when coming off a victory this season. Take Iowa State (8*). |
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02-27-24 | Nevada v. Colorado State UNDER 139.5 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Nevada and Colorado State at 11:30 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a considerably higher posted total the last time these two teams met on January 24th. That game ultimately stayed 'under' that number but did go higher than the total we're working with on Tuesday. I still don't feel the oddsmakers have made enough of an adjustment. Nevada saw its last game go 'over' the total thanks to an offensive outburst against a miserable San Jose State defense. Note that the Wolf Pack are locked-in defensively right now having held three straight and five of their last six opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. Colorado State doesn't figure to push the pace on Nevada, noting that the Rams rank 271st in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). Speaking of being locked-in defensively, the Rams have climbed into the top-25 in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom) thanks to a stretch that has seen them limit seven straight foes to 24 or fewer made field goals. Nevada checks in just 241st in adjusted tempo and has hoisted up 58 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight contests, reaching 52 or less in half of those games. Note that the 'under' is 6-1 in Nevada's last seven games as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 9.0 points including a 2-0 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 9-5 in the Wolf Pack's last 14 contests following a double-digit win over a conference foe including a 5-1 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-10 in Colorado State's last 33 games with the total set in the 130's, as is the case here at the time of writing. The Rams have also seen the 'under' go 14-5 in their last 19 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 75 points or more including a 5-2 mark in that situation this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-27-24 | Blues v. Jets UNDER 6 | Top | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 27 h 30 m | Show |
Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Blues got drilled 6-1 by the Red Wings in Detroit on Saturday. They've had a couple of days off to lick their wounds and regroup and I look for them to come up with a much better defensive effort on Tuesday in Winnipeg. Note that the 'under' is 20-17 in St. Louis' last 37 games following a road loss by three goals or more including a 10-3 mark in that situation this season. Winnipeg secured a 4-3 overtime win over Arizona on Sunday. The 'under' is 12-6 in the Jets last 18 contests following an overtime victory including a 2-1 record in that situation this season. Additionally, the 'under' is 23-7 in Winnipeg's last 30 games after scoring three goals or more in five straight contests, as is the case here, including a perfect 6-0 mark in that situation over the last three seasons. While the 'over' did cash in the most recent matchup between these two teams, we haven't seen consecutive 'over' results in this series since April of 2019. Take the under (10*). |
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02-27-24 | 76ers +12.5 v. Celtics | Top | 99-117 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The 76ers got crushed by the Bucks in front of a national audience on Sunday afternoon as their struggles without Joel Embiid continued. I do think there's a path for Philadelphia to stay competitive in Boston on Tuesday, however. The 76ers do have the ability to effectively shorten proceedings having held three straight opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts and 10 of their last 14 foes to 87 or less. The Celtics may actually be willing partners here noting that they've limited three of their last four opponents to 82 or fewer field goal attempts. Despite Philadelphia's recent struggles it has held six of its last seven opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. There's certainly plenty of room for improvement for the Sixers offense after they connected on just 36-of-97 field goal attempts in a failed comeback against Milwaukee on Sunday. Note that Philadelphia has hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in eight of its last 11 contests so it is at least finding a way to generate plenty of scoring opportunities. Note that Philadelphia has dropped the last two matchups in this series but has gone 22-12 ATS in its last 34 games playing with double-revenge. The Sixers are also 21-17 ATS in their last 38 contests after being held to 100 points or less in their previous game including a 3-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Boston is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 contests following three straight ATS wins as a favorite, as is the case here, including a 1-2 ATS record in that spot this season. The Celtics are also just 26-28 ATS in their last 54 games following eight straight victories including a 2-4 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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02-26-24 | Kings v. Oilers -146 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Edmonton over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. The Oilers are reeling on the heels of three straight losses and it all started with that wild 6-5 overtime loss at home against the Bruins last week. Note that Edmonton is in the fourth game of its five-game homestand so it needs to salvage something beginning with this division game on Monday. This will be a quick revenge spot for the Oilers after they dropped a 4-0 decision in Los Angeles on February 10th. Note that Edmonton hasn't lost consecutive meetings with Los Angeles since November of 2022 and January of 2023. It hasn't dropped consecutive matchups over the last 10 games in this series. The Kings barely escaped with a shootout victory over the lowly Ducks, at home no less, on Saturday. They've taken advantage of a favorable schedule lately to be sure, turning things around after a brutal stretch in December and January. Note that the Kings are a long-term 68-111 when playing for the eighth time in 14 days, as is the case here, including a 1-4 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Oilers are 31-18 when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent including a 9-6 record in that spot this season. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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02-26-24 | Pistons v. Knicks UNDER 224 | Top | 111-113 | Push | 0 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Pistons have seen the 'under' cash in each of their last five games while the Knicks ride a two-game 'under' streak into Monday's contest. Both teams are coming off losses on Saturday with Detroit falling on a last-second shot against Orlando and New York suffering a blowout loss at the hands of Boston. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair on Monday at the Garden. Detroit has shot about as well as you could expect in two games since the All-Star break, making good on 47 and 43 field goals in losses against the Pacers and Magic. It still scored 'only' 115 and 109 points in those two contests. Note that the Pistons haven't produced 109 or more points in three straight games since January 28th to February 2nd. On the flip side, Detroit has limited five straight and eight of its last 10 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The Knicks don't figure to test that streak, noting that they've hoisted up just 84, 79 and 82 field goal attempts in their last three contests. In fact, they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 22 of their last 28 games. On the flip side, the Knicks have held an incredible eight straight opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. While the opposition has shot well against New York in recent weeks, I believe Detroit is better-suited for volume-shooting success but I don't see it accomplishing that against the slow-paced Knicks on Monday. Note that the 'under' is 26-20 in the Pistons last 46 games following five straight 'under' results and 10-7 in their last 17 contests after suffering a loss by three points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 40-24 in New York's last 64 games following consecutive 'under' results including a 14-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 25-22 in the Knicks last 47 contests following a double-digit loss including a 5-4 record in that situation this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-26-24 | Coppin State v. Howard UNDER 138.5 | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
MEAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Coppin State and Howard at 7:30 pm et on Monday. When these two teams met on January 29th they combined to score 147 points as Howard won in a 15-point rout. Note that they combined to knock down a whopping 43 free throws in that contest. To compare, last year's two meetings saw a grand total of just 50 made free throws and the two teams average only 29 made free throws per game combined this season. Coppin State rides an eight-game losing streak into this game. It hasn't made it easy on the opposition lately, however, holding four straight foes to 55 or fewer field goal attempts. In fact, it has limited six of its last seven opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the Coppin State offense has been dreadful. It ranks 361st (out of 362 Division I teams) nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Eagles have made good on 21 or fewer field goals in five of their last seven games. Howard remains incredibly stingy defensively, holding three of its last four opponents to 51 or fewer field goal attempts and 11 of its last 12 foes to 58 or fewer. The Bison offense isn't going to set the world on fire, knocking down 26 or fewer field goals in 11 of its last 12 contests. Howard has hoisted up 57 or fewer field goal attempts in 12 of its last 13 games overall. Note that the 'under' is 8-5 in Coppin State's last 13 games when seeking revenge for a same season loss against an opponent. The 'under' is also 7-2 in the Eagles last nine contests following a home loss by three points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 25-20 in Howard's last 45 games as a favorite including an 8-5 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 21-11 in the Bison's last 32 games following a victory by six points or less. Take the under (10*). |
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02-26-24 | Miami-FL +14 v. North Carolina | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over North Carolina at 7 pm et on Monday. Miami has now lost six straight games to fall all the way to 12th in the ACC standings. With games left against Boston College and Florida State, the Hurricanes can still move up two or three spots in advance of the ACC Tournament but they need to turn things around now. This is undoubtedly a game the Canes have had circled on their schedule as they let the Tar Heels off the hook in a narrow three-point loss against them back on February 10th. Miami connected on just six three-point attempts in that game and got to the free throw line only 13 times (making good on 10 of those attempts) in the loss. Since then it's been all downhill but I do think we'll see Miami rise to the occasion here. North Carolina checks in off a 54-44 victory over Virginia on Saturday. The Cavaliers quite simply couldn't take advantage of their scoring opportunities in that game, making good on only 16-of-58 field goal attempts. Keep in mind, the Tar Heels had allowed at least 27 made field goals in five straight games prior to that contest. While North Carolina has yielded 30 or more made field goals twice in its last six games, Miami has done so just once in its last 12 contests (that happened on Saturday against Georgia Tech). Currently pacing the ACC by a game, the Tar Heels undoubtedly have their sights set on their regular season finale - a showdown with Duke on March 9th that might just decide who goes into the ACC Tournament as the number one seed. Note that the underdog has won four straight games ATS in this series. Despite their struggles this season, the Canes remain a long-term 123-79 ATS as a road underdog including a 12-9 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. They're also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, North Carolina is just 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. The Tar Heels are also just 5-8 ATS in their last 13 contests following consecutive ATS wins as a favorite including a 3-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Miami (10*). |
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02-25-24 | Spurs v. Jazz -6 | 109-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. The Jazz are reeling right now, losers of five straight games both SU and ATS. Their recent struggles really came out of nowhere as they had notched consecutive impressive home wins over the Bucks and Thunder prior to their current losing skid. I see Sunday's matchup against the road-weary Spurs as an ideal 'get-right' spot. The wheels have come off for San Antonio defensively in recent weeks. It has allowed 49 or more made field goals in five of its last six games with each of its last four opponents getting off at least 92 field goal attempts. The Jazz had an awful shooting night against the Hornets on Thursday but I'm willing to chalk that up to rust following a week-long layoff due to the All-Star break. Note that Utah has still made good on more than 40 field goals in seven of its last eight contests. On the flip side, the Jazz put forth a better defensive effort in their first game following the break, holding Charlotte to just 40-of-92 shooting. Note that they've limited six of their last seven foes to 92 or fewer field goal attempts. San Antonio has been thriving in a more up-tempo environment. The Spurs check in having knocked down 43 or fewer field goals in seven of their last 10 games. Note that San Antonio is just 39-43 ATS in its last 82 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent including a 12-14 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Utah is 27-25 ATS in its last 52 home games with the total set at 230 points or higher including a 14-7 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Utah (8*). |
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02-25-24 | Quinnipiac v. Rider UNDER 153 | 78-88 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Quinnipiac and Rider at 2 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring affairs on Friday but I look for a different story to unfold on Sunday afternoon. Quinnipiac is reeling off three straight losses - its longest losing streak of the season. On a positive note, it has done a slightly better job defensively in recent weeks, holding six straight opponents to 61 or fewer field goal attempts. In fact, the Bobcats have limited three of their last five foes to 23 or fewer made field goals. Rider may be known for its offense but it hasn't been playing at all that fast of a pace lately, getting off 56 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games. The Broncs will be looking to extend their three-game winning streak and after dropping a wild, high-scoring 88-84 decision on the road against the Bobcats back in early January, I'm not convinced they'll be interested in a track meet again here. Note that the 'over' has cashed in the last two meetings in this series and that matches the longest such streak over the course of 23 all-time matchups between these two teams. The last time we saw consecutive 'over' results in this series the next matchup reached just 138 total points. The 'under' is 17-10 in Quinnipiac's last 27 games following three straight losses in-conference including a 5-1 mark over the last three seasons. The 'under' is also 7-4 in the Bobcats last 11 contests after allowing 85 points in their previous game, as is the case here, including a 4-1 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 18-13 in Rider's last 31 games following a home victory by three points or less including a 5-1 record in that situation over the last three seasons (1-0 this season). Additionally, the 'under' is 25-20 in the Broncs last 45 home games with the total set in the 150's. Take the under (8*). |
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02-25-24 | Bucks v. 76ers +4.5 | Top | 119-98 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 50 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Milwaukee at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Bucks are coming off a much-needed upset win in Minnesota on Friday as they snapped their two-game losing streak. Milwaukee is still just 4-7 SU and ATS over its last 11 games. It figures to be hard-pressed to cover many spreads as a favorite when it has been held to 42 or fewer made field goals in a staggering eight straight games. Over that stretch, the Bucks were held to 87 or fewer field goal attempts on five different occasions. On the flip side, they've allowed six of their last eight foes to connect on at least 43 field goals. They were fortunate that the Timberwolves didn't take advantage of their opportunities on Friday as they did hoist up 98 field goal attempts. Philadelphia brought its two-game losing streak to a halt with a 104-97 win over the Cavaliers on Friday. The 76ers have now delivered the cash in three of their last five games ATS. They haven't exactly been setting the world on fire offensively either, but they're not the ones laying points in this spot. Note that Philadelphia has connected on 40 or more field goals in nine of its last 10 contests. Defensively, the 76ers have shown improvement lately, limiting three straight and six of their last eight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals including just 38 and 34 over their last two contests. The Bucks check in just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset win. Meanwhile, the 76ers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 contests when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent, as is the case here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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02-24-24 | Flames v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Calgary and Edmonton at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Oilers have dropped consecutive games following last night's 4-2 defeat at the hands of the Wild on home ice. I expect them to bounce back on Saturday but the rival Flames certainly won't make it easy for them. Calgary averages a respectable 3.2 goals per game on the road this season which is actually higher than its season scoring average at home. It's been feast-or-famine for the Flames offense lately as they've scored three goals or more in six of their last eight games but were shut out in the other two. I don't anticipate the Oilers shutting them down completely here (Edmonton has allowed three goals or more in nine straight contests). Note that the 'over' is 27-13 in the Flames last 40 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they scored one goal or less, as is the case here, including a 7-3 mark in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 9-6 in Calgary's last 15 games following an overtime win including a perfect 3-0 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 30-25 in the Oilers last 55 games following a loss by two goals or more including an 8-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 14-9 in their last 23 contests played on the second of back-to-back nights including a 2-1 record this season. Take the over (10*). |
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02-24-24 | Nets v. Wolves -8 | Top | 86-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Brooklyn at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Timberwolves dropped a 112-107 home loss against the Bucks last night. I look for them to bounce back on Saturday as they host the reeling Nets. Brooklyn has had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down. The Nets check in having made good on fewer than 40 field goals in four of their last five games. They've mustered up just 79, 81 and 80 field goal attempts over their last three contests. Despite the loss last night, the T'Wolves continued to play well defensively. They've limited five straight and nine of their last 10 foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. In fact, only one of their last 19 opponents has gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts. Offensively, Minnesota has been far more consistent than Brooklyn, knocking down 46 or more field goals in three of its last five games and 40 or more in 18 of its last 23 contests. Brooklyn hasn't proven to be a good bounce-back team this season, going just 11-16 ATS in 27 games following an ATS loss including a 6-9 ATS mark following consecutive ATS defeats. The Nets are also just 23-29 ATS in their last 52 contests when seeking revenge for home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 5-9 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 17-12 ATS in its last 29 games following a loss by six points or less including a 5-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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02-24-24 | Colorado State v. UNLV -1 | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 22 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on UNLV minus the points over Colorado State at 8 pm et on Saturday. It's revenge week for UNLV as it follows up Wednesday's 72-43 rout of Air Force with a matchup against Colorado State on Saturday. The Rams took the first meeting between these two teams by a 78-75 score on January 19th. The difference on that night was Colorado State knocked down 10 three-pointers compared to UNLV's five. The shoe should be on the other foot in Las Vegas, where the Runnin' Rebels average eight made threes per game this season. UNLV checks in playing as well defensively as any team in the nation right now. The Rebels have held six straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. They've also limited six of their last seven foes to 53 or fewer field goal attempts. Colorado State is an excellent defensive team as well but it has been playing a little looser lately, allowing four of its last five opponents to get off at least 56 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Rams offense has made good on 25 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games. Colorado State is a long-term loser following a loss at 146-166 ATS including a 9-17 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. UNLV on the other hand is 16-13 ATS in its last 29 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent including a 5-1 ATS record in that situation this season. Take UNLV (8*). |
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02-24-24 | Grambling State v. Southern UNDER 133 | Top | 63-57 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
SWAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Grambling and Southern at 6:30 pm et on Saturday. These two teams met back on January 20th and combined to score 141 points in a double-digit Grambling victory. I expect a lower-scoring affair in Saturday's rematch. Note that Grambling has quietly held 11 of its last 13 opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. The Tigers rank 310th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Southern has gotten off 54 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight games. The Jaguars have made good on 23 or fewer field goals in three of their last four contests. On the flip side, they've arguably been even better than the Tigers defensively in recent weeks. Southern has limited an incredible nine straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back 13 games to find the last time a Southern opponent hoisted up more than 53 field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 8-4 in Grambling's last 12 road games with the total set between 130 and 139.5 points including a perfect 4-0 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 15-10 in Southern's last 25 home games including a perfect 7-0 this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-24-24 | Duke v. Wake Forest -2.5 | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 17 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wake Forest minus the points over Duke at 2 pm et on Saturday. Wake Forest didn't play well in its most recent matchup against Duke on February 12th yet it still lost by 'only' eight points, on the road no less. Here, the Demon Deacons have a shot at quick revenge as they host the Blue Devils on Saturday having gone a perfect 14-0 on their home floor this season. Duke benefited from an ice cold Miami offense on Wednesday as the Hurricanes made good on just 19-of-61 field goal attempts. Note that the Blue Devils have allowed five of their last seven opponents to make good on at least 24 field goals. Wake Forest figures to take advantage. The Demon Deacons have connected on 27 or more field goals in six of their last seven contests. On the flip side, they've held three of their last five foes to 22 or fewer made field goals. Note that Duke is 9-14 ATS in its last 23 games as a road underdog of three points or less including an 0-2 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Wake Forest is a modest 23-22 ATS in its last 45 games as a home favorite of three points or less but 4-1 ATS in that situation over the last three seasons. Take Wake Forest (8*). |
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02-23-24 | Bucks v. Wolves UNDER 225.5 | Top | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Minnesota at 10:10 pm et on Friday. This is undoubtedly a game the Bucks have had circled on their calendar since getting throttled 129-105 on their home floor on February 8th. The Timberwolves shot the lights out in that game but I'm not anticipating a repeat performance here. While the Bucks have struggled to find the win column lately, they've continued to do a good job of limiting opposing offenses, holding six of their last eight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Minnesota isn't a team that's going to push the pace on them, noting the T'Wolves have hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 14 of their last 18 games. On the flip side, you'd be hard-pressed to find a team that was as locked-in defensively as the T'Wolves prior to the All-Star break. They enter this game having limited four straight and an incredible 19 of their last 25 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. In fact, Minnesota is allowing just 37 made field goals per contest at home this season. The 'over' has now cashed in consecutive meetings in this series but we haven't seen three straight 'over' results since way back in 2006. The 'under' is 28-14 in Milwaukee's last 42 games as a road underdog and 12-7 in its last 19 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 32-19 in the T'Wolves last 51 home contests with the total set between 220 and 229.5 and 7-3 in their last 10 games played on three or more days' rest. Take the under (10*). |
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02-23-24 | Fairfield v. Quinnipiac -2 | 85-81 | Loss | -114 | 25 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Quinnipiac minus the points over Fairfield at 9 pm et on Friday. Quinnipiac has had four full days to stew on its second straight loss, which came on the heels of a 10-game winning streak. I look for the Bobcats to take out their frustrations on Fairfield on Friday. The Stags are fresh off a 94-80 home win over Mount St. Mary's. Still, they rank 236th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and I fully expect them to have their hands full with a Quinnipiac offense that pushes the pace at every opportunity. The Bobcats have gotten off 63 or more field goal attempts in four of their last five games. On the flip side, they've held three of their last four foes to 23 or fewer made field goals. Note that Fairfield is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games following a double-digit home win including a 1-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Quinnipiac is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 contests following a double-digit loss against a conference opponent, as is the case here. Take Quinnipiac (8*). |
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02-23-24 | Clippers v. Grizzlies +9.5 | Top | 101-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Grizzlies have to feel pretty good about their chances as they catch the Clippers in the second of back-to-backs on Friday night in Memphis. Los Angeles is struggling defensively right now having allowed six straight and eight of its last nine opponents to make good on at least 45 field goals. The Clippers have had no success slowing the opposition, allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in five of their last seven contests. The Grizzlies, despite being undermanned, did show some signs of life offensively prior to the All-Star break, knocking down more than 40 field goals in four of their last six games. On the flip side they also held each of their last three opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. The Clippers have covered the spread in consecutive matchups in this series but haven't won three games in a row ATS over the Grizzlies since back in 2018. Note that Los Angeles is a long-term 40-54 ATS in its last 94 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 6-8 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. The Clips are also just 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests following a road loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here. Memphis on the other hand is 23-15 ATS in its last 38 games as a home underdog and 29-14 ATS in its last 43 contests when playing with double-revenge. Take Memphis (10*). |
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02-23-24 | Heat +3.5 v. Pelicans | 106-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Friday. New Orleans looked like it emptied the tank in its first game back following the All-Star break last night, unloading on Houston in a 127-105 victory. The Pelicans played at an uncharacteristically fast pace in the game, hoisting up 96 field goal attempts. As a result, they reached 50 made field goals for a second straight game. I don't expect them to enjoy similar offensive success on Friday. Note that Miami quietly reeled off five straight ATS victories prior to the All-Star break. It checks in having limited eight straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. It has also held five of its last six foes to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that the Heat are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games played on three or more days' rest and a long-term 81-59 ATS in that situation. They're also 42-28 ATS in their last 70 contests as a road underdog. Meanwhile, New Orleans is just 17-18 ATS in its last 35 games played on the second of back-to-back nights and 9-14 ATS in its last 23 contests following a win by 20 points or more over a division opponent, as is the case here. Take Miami (8*). |
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02-22-24 | Washington State v. Arizona UNDER 151 | Top | 77-74 | Push | 0 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington State and Arizona at 11 pm et on Thursday. Washington State has broken into the top-25 for the first time in an eternity and now it draws a difficult road test against a revenge-minded Arizona squad in Tucson on Thursday. The first meeting between these teams ended 73-70 in favor of the Cougars, cruising 'under' the total. In fact, the 'under' has cashed in five straight meetings in this series. Washington State enters this game locked-in defensively having held four straight and five of its last six opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. Note that it limited Arizona to just 25 made field goals despite yielding 72 field goal attempts back on January 13th. The Wildcats are on a tear offensively but they've also faced mostly up-tempo opponents over the last few weeks. Note that Washington State ranks 310th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and will almost certainly look to slow this game down and effectively shorten proceedings as a double-digit underdog on Thursday. While Arizona is known for its offensive prowess, it can play some defense as well, checking in ranked 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Wildcats have held eight of their last 10 opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. Washington State has made good on 25 or fewer field goals in three of its last four contests. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 41-19 with the Cougars coming off consecutive wins by 10 points or more, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 18-12 in their last 30 games as an underdog including a 5-2 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-7 in Arizona's last 16 games following three straight 'over' results, including 2-0 in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 10-5 in the Wildcats last 15 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent including 1-0 this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-22-24 | Lakers v. Warriors OVER 243 | 110-128 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Golden State at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Lakers won't have the services of Lebron James on Thursday night in San Francisco but they didn't last time out either and still defeated the Jazz by a 138-122 score, on the road no less. I don't think they mind being volume shooters one bit and the Warriors figure to afford them the opportunity to do so on Thursday. Note that Golden State has allowed 92 or more field goal attempts in four of its last six games. With that being said, the Warriors have done a fairly good job defensively but their opposition has displayed a solid scoring floor, making good on 43, 41, 44 and 43 field goals over their last four games. On the flip side, Golden State has been red hot offensively, knocking down 45 or more field goals in six straight and 13 of its last 16 games overall. Not only that but the Warriors have been pushing the pace, hoisting up 92 or more field goal attempts in nine straight contests. Meanwhile, the Lakers have been matador-like defensively, allowing five straight and 10 of their last 12 foes to make good on 45 or more field goals. They've also allowed nine of their last 10 opponents to hoist up at least 96 field goal attempts. The 'over' is 54-30 in the Lakers last 84 games as a road underdog including a 13-5 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 16-10 in the Warriors last 26 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including 7-1 this season. Take the over (8*). |
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02-22-24 | Rockets v. Pelicans UNDER 229.5 | Top | 105-127 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams went into the All-Star break off 'over' results but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up for the fourth time this season on Thursday in New Orleans. Note that the three previous meetings in this series this season totalled just 205, 210 and 209 points. The Rockets had a recent stretch where they connected on 50 or more field goals in six of 11 games but have since cooled off, making good on 44 or fewer field goals in four straight contests prior to the break. Defensively, Houston has quietly been locked-in, limiting nine of its last 11 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. While the Rockets have continued to give up their share of scoring opportunities, the Pelicans don't figure to push the pace, noting that New Orleans has hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in five straight games. The Pelicans did make good on 50 field goals in their most recent game against the lowly Wizards but have been held to 46 or fewer made field goals in 13 of their last 16 games overall. Like the Rockets, the Pelicans have been terrific defensively in recent weeks, holding seven of their last nine foes to 88 or fewer field goal attempts and a rock-steady 27 of their last 32 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 51-44 in the Rockets last 95 games when seeking revenge for a same season loss against an opponent including a 10-4 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 60-40 in New Orleans' last 100 contests following an 'over' result including 19-6 this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-22-24 | Panthers +102 v. Hurricanes | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida over Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. While the Hurricanes have played well lately, the Panthers are quite simply on another level right now. Florida has won six games in a row and 10 of its last 11 overall. Whether at home or on the road that hasn't really matter one bit as the Panthers check in 20-9 away from home, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.2 goals, allowing just 2.2 goals per contest. Carolina has admittedly played well at home, sitting eight games above .500 but has given up 2.9 goals per game. This is a series the Panthers have owned, taking nine of the last 11 meetings including a four-game playoff series sweep last May. Note that Florida is 12-5 in its last 17 games following six straight victories while Carolina is just 2-3 when coming off three wins in a row this season. Take Florida (8*). |
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02-22-24 | Avalanche v. Red Wings OVER 6.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The 'under' cashed in the most recent meeting between these two teams last March. You would have to go back to 2014-15 to find the last time consecutive matchups between the Avalanche and Red Wings stayed 'under' the total. It's no secret that Detroit is one of the worst defensive teams in the league. There's reason to believe it can stay competitive in this contest, however, as Colorado has been just as leaky defensively on the road where it has yielded 3.6 goals per game. Note that the 'over' is 16-8 in the Avs last 24 games following consecutive home wins, as is the case here, including a 6-1 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 23-12 in the Red Wings last 35 games following a one-goal victory including a 6-5 record in that situation this season. Take the over (8*). |
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02-21-24 | UNLV -5.5 v. Air Force | Top | 72-43 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on UNLV minus the points over Air Force at 11 pm et on Wednesday. UNLV is flashing in this revenge spot against Air Force. The Runnin' Rebels turned in their worst performance of the entire season in a 90-58 home loss against the Falcons back in January. Note that UNLV is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite and a perfect 4-0 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss by 20 points or more against an opponent going all the way back to 1997 (only once over that stretch have they sought revenge for a home loss by 30 points or more). The Rebels enter this game locked-in defensively having held five straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, Air Force has connected on 21 or fewer field goals in three of its last four games. In fact, the Falcons have had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down, attempting 52 or fewer field goals in four of their last five games. While Air Force has done a tremendous job of slowing the pace and effectively shortening proceedings it has still allowed six straight and nine of its last 10 opponents to connect on at least 24 field goals despite six straight foes only managing to get off 51 or fewer field goal attempts. The problem here is that UNLV is comfortable playing at that slow pace as it ranks 299th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Rebels were held to just 22 made field goals in a narrow three-point loss to Nevada last time out but they have proven consistent offensively, making good on 24 or more field goals in nine of their last 11 contests, despite playing at that slow tempo. Note that UNLV is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a home loss in-conference and 6-1 ATS in its last seven contests following an upset loss at home, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Air Force is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games after losing six straight contests ATS and 6-11 ATS in its last 17 games off a road loss against a conference foe. Take UNLV (10*). |
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02-21-24 | UNLV v. Air Force UNDER 133.5 | 72-43 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between UNLV and Air Force at 11 pm et on Wednesday. The first matchup between these two teams this season was no contest as Air Force came up with its best performance of the season in a 90-58 victory in Las Vegas. That game soared over the total and as a result we're working with a higher number for this rematch. I believe it will prove too high. Keep in mind, these are two of the slowest paced teams in the country. UNLV checks in 299th in adjusted tempo according to KenPom while Air Force sits 358th (out of 362 Division I teams). The Falcons have connected on 21 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games and haven't played in over a week (they last took the floor on February 13th at San Jose State). On the flip side, Air Force has held five consecutive opponents to 50 or fewer field goal attempts. UNLV has almost matched Air Force step for step in that regard, limiting four of its last five foes to 52 or fewer field goal attempts and three of those to fewer than 50. Note that the 'under' is 9-2 in UNLV's last 11 games following a home loss in-conference, as is the case here. While Air Force enters riding a long 'over' streak (10 straight games), the 'under' remains 29-27 in its last 56 contests as an underdog. Take the under (8*). |
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02-21-24 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State UNDER 142.5 | Top | 71-83 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ole Miss and Mississippi State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. The first matchup between these rivals was a high-scoring barn-burner with the Rebels prevailing 86-82 on their home floor back in late January. I expect a much different game to play out in Wednesday's rematch. Note that the 'over' has now cashed in consecutive meetings in this series. We haven't seen three straight matchups between these two teams go 'over' the total since 2019-20 and prior to that 2005-06. Ole Miss snapped its three-game losing streak with a narrow win over Missouri last time out. You could see the Rebels shifting their focus to the defensive end of the floor as that losing skid grew. They enter this contest having held their last two opponents to just 54 and 49 field goal attempts. Keep in mind, Ole Miss ranks 244th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Rebels have played considerably faster from an offensive standpoint at home this season, averaging two fewer made field goals on two fewer field goal attempts compared to their season average on the road. Mississippi State has hoisted up fewer than 60 field goal attempts in five of its last six games, making good on 25 or fewer field goals in four of those contests. Like the Rebels, the Bulldogs are showing signs of locking in defensively, limiting their last three foes to 57, 47 and 55 field goal attempts and holding three straight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 9-3 in Ole Miss' last 12 games following a win in-conference and 41-33 in its last 74 contests after allowing 75 points or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 16-7 in Mississippi State's last 23 games following three straight victories. Take the under (10*). |
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02-21-24 | St. John's -10 v. Georgetown | Top | 90-85 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Week. My selection is on St. John's minus the points over Georgetown at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I think we'll see St. John's go off on Wednesday as it looks to snap its three-game losing streak with a road date against Georgetown. The Red Storm continue to afford themselves plenty of scoring opportunities as they've hoisted up 69, 71, 69 and 68 field goal attempts over their last four games. Sunday's loss against Seton Hall snapped a streak of three straight games in which they connected on at least 28 field goals. Note that St. John's will be facing a Georgetown squad that ranks 307th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) on Wednesday. The Hoyas have allowed eight straight opponents to knock down at least 25 field goals with five of those foes connecting on 32 or more. On the flip side, the Red Storm have held four of their last five opponents to 54 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that Georgetown has made good on 27 or fewer field goals in seven straight games and that's despite getting off more than 60 field goal attempts in five of those contests. St. John's checks in 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as a road favorite and 4-1 ATS in its last five contests following three straight losses against conference foes. Meanwhile, Georgetown is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games as a home underdog and 6-9 ATS in its last 15 contests following consecutive double-digit losses against conference opponents. Take St. John's (10*). |
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02-21-24 | Duke v. Miami-FL +5.5 | 84-55 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over Duke at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Blue Devils are red hot right now, winners of four games in a row, both SU and ATS. Meanwhile, Miami has lost four consecutive games, going 1-3 ATS over that stretch. This is college basketball and any team is capable of rising up on any given night and I'm confident we'll see the Hurricanes do just that on Wednesday. Miami has now held six straight opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. The issue last time out was that it could only muster 51 field goal attempts itself in an 85-77 road loss against Boston College. Duke has allowed seven straight opponents to hoist up at least 57 field goal attempts and that should favor the Hurricanes and their 68th ranked offense (according to KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency metric) here. Note that Duke is just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 games after scoring 75 points or more in three consecutive games, as is the case here. It is also 27-37 ATS in its last 64 contests following four straight ATS victories as a favorite, which is also the situation on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Miami is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite of six points or less and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 contests following a road loss in-conference. Take Miami (8*). |
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02-21-24 | Arsenal v. FC Porto OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between FC Porto and Arsenal at 3 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a pair of low-scoring contests in Champions League action yesterday but I expect a different story to unfold, at least in this match on Wednesday. Note that Arsenal has seen each of its last five contests go 'over' 2.5 total goals. Meanwhile, FC Porto has scored first in seven of its last nine matches (Arsenal has found the back of the net first in five straight contests). I'm confident that both sides will come into this round knowing that they'll need to push rather than sit back and defend. We're talking about two of the youngest teams remaining in the Champions League this year. Porto in particular can be exposed at the back end, particularly on the outside. It's a similar story for Arsenal even if the Gunners are a little stronger between the sticks with goalkeeper David Raya in fine form. I consider both sides to be underrated up front and I'm confident we'll see at least three total goals on Wednesday. Take the over (10*). |
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02-20-24 | Baylor v. BYU -3 | 71-78 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on BYU minus the points over Baylor at 9 pm et on Tuesday. BYU got caught flat-footed on the road against Oklahoma State on Saturday as the Cowboys quite simply shot the lights out in a blowout victory. I look for the Cougars to bounce back as they look for revenge at home against Baylor on Tuesday. BYU dropped an 81-72 decision against the Bears in Waco back in early January. Since then, the Cougars have been on a bit of a roller-coaster but so have the Bears. Baylor enters this contest 'fat and happy' off a 94-81 road win over West Virginia on Saturday. Note that the Bears are just 9-11 ATS in their last 20 games following consecutive wins in-conference. Meanwhile, BYU is 47-28 ATS in its last 75 contests as a home favorite of six points or less including a perfect 2-0 ATS mark this season. Take BYU (8*). |
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02-20-24 | Stars +135 v. Rangers | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas over New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Stars let the Bruins off the hook yesterday afternoon in Boston, allowing the tying goal with under two minutes remaining in the third period before losing in a shootout. I look for them to bounce back on Tuesday as they look to respond following consecutive losses. Note that Dallas is still 17-11 on the road this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.7 goals. The Rangers are red hot, winners of seven games in a row. Keep in mind, their recent surge has come at the expense of a number of struggling teams, including the rival Islanders in Sunday's Stadium Series matchup. New York rallied back from a late 5-3 deficit to tie the game before scoring early in the overtime period to secure the victory. Note that the Rangers are 0-3 when coming off seven straight wins over the last three seasons, and 3-9 in their last 12 contests in that situation. The Stars are 21-6 in their last 27 games after giving up four goals or more in consecutive games and a perfect 7-0 when coming off a road loss by one goal this season. Take Dallas (8*). |
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02-20-24 | Islanders +130 v. Penguins | Top | 5-4 | Win | 130 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
Metropolitan Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Penguins are reeling right now, losers of four of their last five games to fall farther out of the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Islanders are struggling as well having dropped three straight games including Sunday's heart-breaker against the Rangers outdoors at MetLife Stadium. I do think the Isles are better-positioned to bounce back right now. Here, they'll be looking for revenge after dropping both previous matchups between these two teams this season. Pittsburgh is sorely missing Jake Guentzel right now. Go up and down the Pens roster and you won't find many reliable sources for offense. Keep in mind, the Pens average only 2.7 goals per game on home ice this season while the Isles average 3.0 goals per contest on the road. Pittsburgh hasn't won three straight meetings in this series since 2021. New York checks in 29-23 in its last 52 games following a one goal loss while Pittsburgh is just 24-25 (-10.9 net games) when coming off a home loss. Take New York (10*). |
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02-20-24 | Bowling Green +1.5 v. Central Michigan | Top | 60-62 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Bowling Green plus the points over Central Michigan at 7 pm et on Tuesday. This is a true 'get right' game for Bowling Green after it was blasted by Louisiana and Eastern Michigan in its last two contests. Here, the Falcons will have revenge on their minds after suffering a 77-76 home loss against Central Michigan earlier this month. The Chippewas have benefited from some good fortune this season as they rank second in the country in luck rating according to KenPom's metrics. It shows as the Chips have held six of their last eight opponents to 24 made field goals or less despite six of those foes getting off at least 60 field goal attempts. In fact, Central Michigan has allowed its last five opponents to hoist up 66, 73, 70, 60 and 69 field goal attempts. It also checks in 324th in the country (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted offensive rating. Bowling Green prefers to play at a fast pace - it simply hasn't been able to cash in on its opportunities over the last couple of games. I'm confident it can flip the script in this matchup. There's a fairly well-defined offensive ceiling in play when it comes to CMU as it has connected on 26 or fewer field goals in eight of its last nine games. The lone outlier over that stretch actually came against Bowling Green as the Chips made good on 31-of-61 field goal attempts in that game. I don't think there's any question the Falcons got caught looking past CMU on that occasion as they were fresh off an upset road win over Ball State. Note that Bowling Green is 3-1 ATS when coming off a loss in-conference this season and a perfect 2-0 ATS when that loss came on the road. Central Michigan is a long-term 67-84 ATS in its last 151 games after consecutive ATS wins including an 8-11 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Take Bowling Green (10*). |
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02-19-24 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech -3.5 | Top | 41-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Virginia Tech minus the points over Virginia at 7 pm et on Monday. This is undoubtedly a game the Hokies have had circled on their calendar since dropping a 65-57 loss against the Cavaliers back on January 17th. Virginia Tech turned the basketball over 15 times in that game, allowing Virginia to play its game and effectively shorten proceedings. Note that the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six meetings in this series. The straight-up winner has covered the spread in 16 straight matchups between these in-state rivals. The Cavaliers have expended plenty of energy during their 9-1 run to climb to third place in the ACC. Meanwhile, the Hokies have a lot of work to do as they sit 6-8 in conference play with six games left on the schedule. The good news is the schedule is fairly forgiving down the stretch but the Hokies need to turn it around here following Saturday's blowout loss at North Carolina. Note that Virginia is just 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games as a road underdog of six points or less and 23-30 ATS in its last 53 contests following a win by three points or less against a conference opponent. Virginia Tech checks in 25-17 ATS in its last 42 games as a home favorite and 5-1 ATS in its last six contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which it scored 60 points or less. Take Virginia Tech (10*). |
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02-19-24 | Stars v. Bruins UNDER 6 | 3-4 | Loss | -114 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Boston at 1:05 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring overtime losses on home ice on Saturday. I look for a different story to unfold as the Stars and Bruins match up in a matinee affair in Boston on Monday. Dallas actually held the high-powered Oilers offense off the scoreboard for the entire first and third periods on Saturday but gave up three goals in the second frame and another in overtime in a 4-3 defeat. Note that the Stars check in allowing just 2.6 goals per game on the road this season. The Bruins have a fairly well-established ceiling offensively in this particular series having scored three goals or less in the last 12 meetings, reaching four goals just once over that stretch. Boston desperately needs to button things up defensively after allowing five goals in an overtime loss against the Kings on Saturday - its fourth consecutive loss on home ice. Still, the Bruins have allowed only 2.6 goals per game at home this season. Note that the 'under' is 14-10 in the Stars last 24 games following a one-goal loss at home. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 12-6 in the Bruins last 18 contests in the identical situation. Take the under (8*). |
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02-18-24 | Western v. Eastern OVER 362 | 186-211 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between the Eastern Conference and Western Conference at 8 pm et on Sunday. We've seen some lower scoring results in the NBA All-Star Game in recent years but that's really only been due to the Elam Ending rules that were enforced, implementing a target score that would end the game. It's back to the regular rules this year, along with the conference format meaning we'll see four 12-minute quarters. Keep in mind, the last two times the East and West squared off we saw 369 and 374 points in 2016 and 2017, respectively. I don't expect to see any defense played in Sunday's showcase as the offensive talent is as good as it's ever been in today's NBA, while defense has become optional with the exception of a few select teams. Simply put, I'm not sure they can set this total high enough. Take the over (8*). |
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02-18-24 | Rangers v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between the Rangers and Islanders at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. The 'over' has cashed in each of the last two meetings between these two teams but this is the first matchup this season. Note that we haven't seen three straight 'over' results in this rivalry since 2016-17. The 'under' is 19-12 in the Rangers last 31 games following a home win by three goals or more, as is the case here. The Blueshirts have also seen the 'under' go 19-11 in their last 30 contests following consecutive wins by two goals or more. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 12-6 in the Islanders last 18 games played on three or more days' rest and 20-17 in their last 37 contests after scoring two goals or less in consecutive games, which is also the situation here. Take the under (8*). |
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02-18-24 | Canisius v. Siena OVER 137.5 | Top | 73-64 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Canisius and Siena at 2 pm et on Sunday. We've seen consecutive 'under' results in this series and that's notable as we haven't witnessed a streak of three straight meetings between these two teams going 'under' the total since an extended stretch of low-scoring matchups from 2005-08. Canisius can drag even the worst of opponents into a high-scoring affair, noting the Golden Griffins have allowed 28 or more made field goals in five straight games. They've also allowed eight of their last 11 opponents to get off at least 60 field goal attempts. In a similar vein, Siena has allowed six of its last 10 foes to hoist up at least 66 field goal attempts. Canisius is waiting for an opportunity to get out and run after getting bogged down in its last two games against Iona and Marist. Note that the Golden Griffins actually rank a respectable 130th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The first meeting between these two teams this season reached just 130 total points but that game featured just eight combined made three-pointers. Note that these two teams average 13 combined made threes per game this season. The 'over' is 28-18 in Canisius' last 46 road games with the total set between 135 and 139.5, as is the case here at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 4-1 in Siena's last five contests as a home underdog of three points or less and 14-12 in its last 26 contests when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. Take the over (10*). |
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02-17-24 | Pacific v. Gonzaga UNDER 152.5 | Top | 76-102 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
WCC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Pacific and Gonzaga at 9 pm et on Saturday. Pacific was far more competitive than expected in an 82-73 home loss against Gonzaga last month. While this game figures to be more lopsided, I also believe it will be lower-scoring. The Bulldogs used up a lot of what they had in the tank in Thursday's eventual rout of Loyola Marymount. That was a one-point game at halftime before Gonzaga poured it on in the second half. Note that the Bulldogs, while known for their offensive prowess, have also played some defense lately, holding nine straight opponents to 28 or fewer made field goals. Pacific doesn't figure to approach that number on Saturday, noting the Tigers have connected on 25 or fewer field goals in eight of their last nine games. In fact, Pacific has gotten off 53 or fewer field goal attempts in six of its last eight contests. The 'over' has cashed in two straight meetings between these teams but we haven't seen three consecutive 'over' results in series history (going back 20 all-time meetings since 2012). Note that the 'under' is 20-16 in Pacific's last 36 games as a road underdog and 13-5 in its last 18 contests when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 11-4 in Gonzaga's last 15 games following a road win over a conference foe and 18-13 in its last 31 contests following an ATS victory as a double-digit favorite, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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02-17-24 | Red Wings +110 v. Flames | Top | 5-0 | Win | 110 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit over Calgary at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The Red Wings have dropped the first two games on their current western road trip and both of those losses came in lopsided fashion. Note that Detroit is 8-6 in its last 14 games following consecutive road losses and 12-8 in its last 20 contests following two straight road losses by three goals or more, as is the case here. The Flames had won four games in a row prior to losing their last two contests. Calgary began a potential fire sale by dealing away Elias Lindholm during the All-Star break and is essentially going nowhere this season. Note that the Flames are just 12-13 on home ice this season, averaging just 2.9 goals per game. While Detroit hasn't been any better on the road, it has at least shown more of an offensive spark, averaging 3.3 goals per contest. Calgary checks in 11-18 in its last 29 games following a loss against a division opponent and 2-9 in its last 11 contests following consecutive losses by two goals or more, which is the situation here. Take Detroit (10*). |
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02-17-24 | Kansas -125 v. Oklahoma | 67-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas moneyline over Oklahoma at 4 pm et on Saturday. The Jayhawks have lost two of their last three games and are coming off a complete no-show on the road against Texas Tech on Monday. Oklahoma checks in off a blowout loss as well, suffering a 17-point defeat at Baylor on Tuesday. I believe Kansas is better-suited to bounce back on Saturday as it expects to have Kevin McCullar Jr. back in the lineup to give it a much-needed offensive boost. Note that the Sooners have been as bad as any team in the nation offensively over the last two games, connecting on an identical 21 field goals while getting off just 46 and 45 field goal attempts, respectively. In fact, they've been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in six of their last eight contests. The Jayhawks have struggled offensively in recent games but are just three games removed from a stretch that saw them knock down more than 30 field goals in six out of 10 games. Defensively, Kansas has held three straight opponents to 58 or fewer field goal attempts. Texas Tech simply shot the lights out against it on Monday. Oklahoma has seen two of its last three foes get off at least 62 field goal attempts. Note that Kansas is 26-3 in its last 29 games off a double-digit loss in-conference and 54-13 in its last 67 games as a favorite. Oklahoma is 15-26 in its last 41 games as an underdog and 19-32 in its last 51 games in-conference. Take Kansas (8*). |
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02-17-24 | BYU v. Oklahoma State UNDER 151.5 | 83-93 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between BYU and Oklahoma State at 2 pm et on Saturday. BYU left it all on the floor in a 90-88 home win over UCF on Tuesday while Oklahoma State has been idle since last Saturday's narrow 66-62 loss on the road against in-state rival Oklahoma. The Cougars have now been held to just 23, 27 and 21 made field goals over their last three games. I don't think we'll see the Cowboys get walked all over here, noting they do rank a respectable 86th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, not to mention 194th in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). Meanwhile, the Cowboys aren't likely to get dragged into a track meet either. They've connected on 22 or fewer field goals in eight of their last nine contests. Last Saturday's game marked the first time in 13 contests they hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 11-7 in BYU's last 18 games following a home win in which it scored 85 or more points and 26-20 in its last 46 contests after suffering three straight ATS defeats, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-18 in Oklahoma State's last 41 games as an underdog and 35-28 in its last 63 games after winning three straight contests ATS. Take the under (8*). |
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02-17-24 | Florida Gulf Coast v. Stetson OVER 142.5 | 60-61 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Florida-Gulf Coast and Stetson at 2 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are hovering around the 300-mark in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom) with Florida-Gulf Coast just north of that level and Stetson considerably south of it. While neither team has played at all that quick of a pace - certainly nothing compared to what we saw from them in recent years - we have seen signs of them picking it up lately. FGCU has hoisted up 57 or more field goal attempts in four straight and eight of its last nine games, reaching at least 60 four times over that stretch. Stetson doesn't figure to do much to slow the Eagles as it has allowed five of its last six opponents to get off more than 60 field goal attempts. On the flip side, Stetson has 60 or more field goal attempts in four straight games, connecting on 29 or more of those shots in four of its last five contests. FGCU has continued to slow its opponents' tempo but has still allowed 25 or more made field goals in seven of its last 10 games. Note that the 'over' is 15-10 in the Eagles last 25 games as a road underdog including a 6-4 mark this season. The 'over 'is also 17-13 in their last 30 games following a double-digit win over a conference foe. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 17-5 in the Hatters last 22 games as a home favorite of six points or less including a 1-0 record in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 10-2 in their last 12 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent. Take the over (8*). |
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02-16-24 | Yale v. Pennsylvania OVER 137.5 | Top | 76-62 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
Ivy League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Yale and Pennsylvania at 7 pm et on Friday. These two teams just met on Yale's campus on February 3rd with the Bulldogs prevailing by a 74-58 score in a game that stayed 'under' the total. I'm anticipating a considerably higher-scoring affair in Friday's rematch in Pennsylvania. Note that Penn connected on just 20 field goals in that previous matchup. The Quakers have proven to be a much better offensive team at home this season where they average 29 made field goals per contest. Yale has been fairly solid defensively but does check in having allowed 23 or more made field goals in six of its last eight games to at least leave the door cracked for the Penn offense, which is objectively better than its defense this season (the Quakers rank 154th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 264th in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom). Note that Penn has connected on more than 20 field goals in 19 of 22 games this season so I'm willing to chalk up that ugly performance against Yale as an outlier. Defensively, the Quakers have allowed 10 of their last 12 opponents to knock down at least 26 field goals with half of those foes making good on at least 29. Yale enters this game on a serious tear offensively having connected on 33, 31, 34, 31, 27, 25, 28 and 28 field goals over its last eight contests. Note that the 'over' is 5-2 in the Bulldogs last seven games following three straight home wins and 12-7 in their last 19 contests played on five or six days' rest, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 40-29 in Penn's last 69 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which it scored less than 60 points and 22-19 in its last 41 contests off an ATS win but SU loss. Take the over (10*). |
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02-15-24 | Gonzaga v. Loyola Marymount +13 | 91-74 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Loyola Marymount plus the points over Gonzaga at 9 pm et on Thursday. These two teams just met on January 30th with Gonzaga rolling to a 92-58 victory on its home floor. While I'm not convinced Loyola Marymount can gain a true ounce of revenge with an outright win on Thursday, I do look for the Lions to stay inside the lofty pointspread. The key here is Loyola Marymount's ability to effectively shorten proceedings on its home floor. The Lions have held eight of their last 12 opponents to 58 or fewer field goal attempts. They did give up 63 field goal attempts against Pepperdine last time out but haven't yielded 60 or more in consecutive games at any time over their last 12 contests. Note that eight of Loyola Marymount's last 10 opponents have made good on 28 or fewer field goals. Gonzaga is in a fairly obvious letdown spot following Saturday's upset win at Kentucky. In stark contrast to the Lions, the Bulldogs have allowed more than 60 field goal attempts in nine of their last 13 games. They have held up reasonably well defensively but will have their hands full against a Lions squad that averages 27 made field goals per game at home this season. Note that Gonzaga is a long-term 36-40 ATS in its last 76 games as a road favorite of 12.5 or more points. The Bulldogs are also just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 contests following a win by six points or less and 0-3 ATS this season when coming off consecutive ATS victories. Meanwhile, the Lions are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games as a home underdog and 39-31 in their last 70 contests following an upset loss. That's not to mention the fact that they're 23-16 ATS in their last 39 games after suffering an ATS defeat. Take Loyola Marymount (8*). |
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02-15-24 | Bucks v. Grizzlies UNDER 223.5 | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Memphis at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. The Grizzlies were involved in a high-scoring victory over the Rockets last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday. Memphis actually got off just 79 field goal attempts (making good on 39 of them) in that win. In fact, the Grizzlies have been held to 81 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last five games. Incredibly, Memphis has connected on 44 or fewer field goals in 27 straight and 34 of its last 35 contests representing an iron ceiling when it comes to its scoring potential. On the flip side, the Grizzlies have limited three of their last four opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals and last night marked the first time in five games they allowed an opponent to get off more than 86 field goal attempts (that was largely game-script dependent as Houston fell behind by 15 points after the first quarter). Milwaukee continues to struggle under the guidance of head coach Doc Rivers. The Bucks have been held to 42 or fewer made field goals in six straight games and continue to play without an excellent complimentary piece in Khris Middleton. The good news is, Milwaukee continues to play tough defense having held six of its last seven opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and eight of its last 11 foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 10-7 in the Bucks last 17 games following an upset loss by 15 points or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 8-4 in the Grizzlies last 12 games as a home underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points and 8-6 in their last 14 contests following an upset victory at home. Take the under (8*). |
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02-15-24 | Avalanche v. Lightning UNDER 6.5 | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Avalanche are coming off a 6-3 victory in Washington two nights ago - the second time they scored six goals against the Caps over the last three weeks. Still, Colorado has produced just 12 goals in six games going back to the All-Star break. It will be facing a Lightning team that has been fairly stingy on home ice this season, allowing just 2.5 goals per contest. Tampa Bay persevered and notched a 3-2 shootout win in Boston on Tuesday. Like the Avs, the Bolts have struggled for the most part offensively since the All-Star break, scoring only nine goals in regulation time over their last four contests. Despite all the offensive firepower on these two teams, the 'under' has actually gone 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series. Note that the 'under' is 14-6 in the Avs last 20 games after allowing three goals or more in four consecutive games, as is the case here. The 'under' is also a long-term 161-133 with Colorado coming off a road win in which it scored four goals or more. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 15-9 in the Lightning's last 24 games following an overtime win and 12-9 in their last 21 contests after a road win over a division opponent. Take the under (8*). |
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02-14-24 | Clippers v. Warriors -2.5 | 130-125 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. This sets up as a smash spot for the red hot Warriors as they host the Clippers on Wednesday night. Golden State has been on an incredible offensive tear, connecting on 44 or more field goals in an incredible 13 of its last 14 games. Over its last four contests it has knocked down 47, 52, 45 and 48 field goals. The Clippers are as vulnerable as it gets defensively right now having allowed four straight opponents to make good on 45 or more field goals. In fact, they've allowed six of their last seven foes to connect on 45 or more field goals. On the flip side, Los Angeles has sunken into a shooting slump itself, making good on 37 or fewer field goals in four of its last five contests. Note that the Clips are just 14-19 in their last 33 games as a road underdog of six points or less and 24-35 ATS in their last 59 contests following a home loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here. The Warriors are 41-27 in their last 68 games when seeking revenge for a same season loss against an opponent and 28-11 ATS in their last 39 contests when playing with double-revenge, which is the situation after the Clips took the last two meetings in December. Take Golden State (8*). |
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02-14-24 | Kings v. Nuggets UNDER 229.5 | 102-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Kings are coming off a wild, high-scoring 130-125 loss in Phoenix last night extending their o/u record to 6-0-1 over their last seven games. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday as these two teams play their final game prior to the All-Star break. Sacramento has actually held five straight and eight of its last nine opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. The Nuggets aren't exactly lighting it up offensively right now as they've connected on 44 or fewer field goals in 10 of their last 12 games including 42 or fewer in four of their last six contests. On the flip side, Denver continues to hold up well defensively, limiting 10 straight and 16 of their last 18 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Better still, Denver has held an incredible 15 of its last 18 foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 19-16 in the Kings last 35 games played on the second of back-to-back nights and 19-11 in their last 30 contests following six consecutive 'over' results. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 26-20 in Denver's last 46 games as a home favorite of six points or less and 15-13 in its last 28 contests following an upset loss on the road, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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02-14-24 | Panthers v. Penguins UNDER 6 | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Pittsburgh at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Panthers may be known for their offensive prowess but they've flipped the script this season and check into Wednesday's matchup in Pittsburgh as one of the best 'under' bets in hockey. Florida is coming off a 4-0 victory over Colorado on Saturday and you would have to go back six games to find the last time it posted an 'over' result. In fact, the 'under' is 18-5-2 in the Panthers last 25 contests. Similarly, Pittsburgh enters riding a five-game 'under' streak and has posted a 2-10 o/u mark over its last 12 games. These two teams just met here in Pittsburgh on January 26th and the result was a 3-2 Panthers victory. Note that Florida has allowed just 2.3 goals per game on the road this season while Pittsburgh has given up an identical 2.3 goals per contest at home. The 'under' is 12-8 in the Panthers last 20 games played on three days' rest and 17-12 in their last 29 games following a win by four goals or more. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-16 in the Penguins last 36 games played with double-revenge, as is the case here, and 9-2 in their last 11 contests following consecutive road losses. Take the under (8*). |
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02-14-24 | Georgia Tech v. Notre Dame UNDER 133 | Top | 55-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia Tech and Notre Dame at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Notre Dame is coming off a stunning 74-66 upset win over Virginia Tech on Saturday marking the first time it scored more than 61 points since a 75-68 victory at Georgia Tech on January 9th. I'm not convinced the Irish will enjoy similar offensive success here, noting they still rank 336th in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom) and just inside the top-300 in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency. Prior to Saturday's contest Notre Dame had been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in 10 straight games. Georgia Tech is by no means an elite defensive team but despite allowing six of its last 10 opponents to get off more than 60 field goal attempts it yielded 30 or more made field goals just once over that stretch. On the flip side, the Yellow Jackets have connected on 25 or fewer field goals in seven straight games. The Irish can play some defensive having limited eight straight and 14 of their last 15 opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. The first meeting between these two teams this season did reach 143 total points but both teams played at a faster pace than expected and shot better than their season average from beyond the arc in that contest. Note that the 'under' is 12-5 in Georgia Tech's last 17 games when seeking revenge for a loss where its opponent scored 75 points or more and 8-1 in its last nine contests following consecutive double-digit losses. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 25-21 in Notre Dame's last 46 home games and 9-3 in its last 12 contests following an upset victory. Take the under (10*). |
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02-13-24 | Kings +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 125-130 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Kings suffered a heart-breaking loss the last time they played in Phoenix back on January 16th as they let the Suns off the hook in a 119-117 defeat (they still covered the spread). I say they let them off the hook because they led that game by 17 points at halftime and 12 points entering the fourth quarter. I like the spot for Sacramento here as it looks to get on track following a 127-113 loss in Oklahoma City on Sunday - its third defeat in its last four games. Sacramento continues to play well offensively. It has made good on at least 42 field goals in an incredible 15 of its last 17 games, connecting on 45, 51 and 44 field goals over its last three contests. The Suns have become rather forgiving defensively, allowing at least 90 field goal attempts in six straight and 12 of their last 14 games overall. Of course, Phoenix has been red hot offensively but I do think the Kings are capable of at least limiting the Suns scoring opportunities, noting that Sacramento has held three straight and six of its last eight opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts (it allows an average of 42-of-87 shooting on the road this season). Note that the Kings are 33-23 ATS in their last 56 games following a double-digit loss, including 8-5 ATS in that situation this season. They're also a long-term 52-43 ATS in their last 95 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110 points or more. Meanwhile, Phoenix is just 17-22 ATS in its last 39 games played on two days' rest (note that this is the first time it has had two days between games since January 16th-19th). The Suns are also just 15-17 ATS in their last 32 home games with the total set at 230 points or higher. Take Sacramento (10*). |
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02-13-24 | Red Wings v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Edmonton at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' is 12-1 in the Oilers last 13 games and that's affording us a total of 6.5 in a game where I believe it should be set at 7.0 on Tuesday. Note that the last two meetings between these teams in Edmonton have produced a total of 21 goals. Detroit checks in off a 4-3 overtime victory over Vancouver on Saturday. The 'over' is 52-29 in the Red Wings last 83 games against Western Conference opponents. The Wings have also seen the 'over' go 13-4 in their last 17 contests following a one-goal victory at home. The Oilers were shut out on Saturday in Los Angeles, dropping a 4-0 decision. The 'over' is 5-2 in their last seven games after getting shut out and 21-15 in their last 36 contests following a game that totalled four goals or less. Note that the 'over' is also 8-3 in Edmonton's last 11 games following a road loss against a division opponent. Take the over (8*). |
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02-13-24 | Colorado State v. San Diego State UNDER 140 | 55-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado State and San Diego State at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I think the fact that these two teams combined to score 150 points in their first meeting this season (on January 30th) is weighing heavily on this total. This is a matchup of two terrific defensive teams, not to mention two relatively slow-paced offenses. You wouldn't know it from the first matchup but I look for a more tightly-contested affair in Tuesday's rematch. Colorado State has seen the 'under' cash in three straight games and is coming off a 66-47 rout of San Jose State on Friday. The Rams are locked-in defensively right now having held each of their last three opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals and 15 of their last 16 opponents to 60 or fewer field goal attempts. While they do rank an impressive 25th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, they also sit 281st in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). Colorado State has hoisted up 53 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games entering Tuesday's contest. San Diego State is coming off an overtime loss at Nevada on Friday. The Aztecs rank 19th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. They check in having held an incredible 17 of their last 19 opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. They've also limited 16 of their last 18 foes to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. While San Diego State does rank inside the top-50 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, it is just 231st in adjusted tempo. The Aztecs have knocked down 27 or fewer field goals in nine of their last 10 games. Even in their previous matchup with the Rams they got off an uncharacteristic 60 field goal attempts but still topped out at 27 made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 7-2 in Colorado State's last nine games following three straight wins over conference opponents and 19-13 in its last 32 contests after a double-digit win. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 32-24 in San Diego State's last 56 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 75 points or more and 21-18 in its last 39 games as a home favorite. Take the under (8*). |
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02-13-24 | Lightning v. Bruins -156 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -156 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The home team has won five straight meetings in this series and I look for that trend to continue on Tuesday. Tampa Bay is coming off a much-needed 4-2 victory in Columbus on Saturday as it snapped a two-game losing streak. The Lightning are still 11-17 on the road this season where they've been outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals. Boston checks in 17-9 on home ice but is coming off an ugly 3-0 defeat at the hands of the Capitals at TD Garden on Saturday. Note the Bruins have outscored the opposition by an average margin of 1.1 goals here at home this season. The Bolts have had plenty of success in recent years but they're just 19-20 in their last 39 games following a road victory by two goals or more, as is the case here. The Bruins on the other hand are 7-2 in their last nine games after suffering a home loss by three goals or more and a perfect 5-0 in their last five contests after getting shut out in their previous game. Take Boston (10*). |
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02-12-24 | Wolves v. Clippers UNDER 222.5 | Top | 121-100 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. I think this game has the potential to have an 'old school' feel as the Timberwolves take the court for the first time since last Thursday while the Clippers wrap up a three-game homestand that has seen them go 0-2 ATS so far. Minnesota's most recent game found its way 'over' the total thanks to a lights out shooting performance in Milwaukee. The pace wasn't necessarily there as the T'Wolves hoisted up 87 field goal attempts in a 129-105 rout. Keep in mind, Minnesota has gotten off 90 or fewer field goal attempts in 11 of its last 12 games and averages just 86 per game on the road this season. Also note that the T'Wolves have knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in six of their last nine contests. On the flip side, Minnesota is locked-in defensively having held eight of its last nine opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals in regulation time. The Clippers have had a tough enough time just getting shots off, let alone knocking them down lately. They've gotten off 82 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four games. You would have to go back six contests to find the last time they hoisted up more than 89 field goal attempts. They've been held to 38 or fewer made field goals in four of their last seven games. Los Angeles is coming off an uncharacteristically bad defensive effort against Detroit on Saturday. Note that the Clippers have allowed three of their last four foes to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. I do think the fact that Minnesota hasn't played since Thursday and that it plays at a relatively slow pace works in Los Angeles' favor here. Keep in mind, the Clips have limited the opposition to just 41 made field goals per game at home this season. Note that the 'under' is 6-3 in Minnesota's last nine games played on three or more days' rest and 24-21 in its last 45 contests following an upset win. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-15 in Los Angeles' last 35 games following a victory by six points or less and 29-20 in its last 49 home games with the total set between 220 and 229.5 points, as is the case here at the time of writing. Take the under (10*). |
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02-12-24 | Kansas +2.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 50-79 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas plus the points over Texas Tech at 9 pm et on Monday. I think the knee-jerk reaction is to fade Kansas here after it was stunned in overtime on the road against in-state rival Kansas State in front of a national audience one week ago tonight. We'll go the other way and back the Jayhawks as they look to snap a three-game road losing streak in Big 12 play. Note that you would have to go back five meetings to find the last time the Red Raiders defeated the Jayhawks and that marks their only victory in the last nine meetings in this series going back to the start of 2020. While Texas Tech did snap a three-game losing streak with a 66-59 win over Central Florida last time out it still failed to cover the spread for a fourth straight game. The Red Raiders continue to play too loose defensively for my liking, allowing five of their last seven opponents to get off more than 60 field goal attempts. Give a team as talented as the Jayhawks enough scoring opportunities and they're going to break through, noting Kansas has connected on more than 30 field goals in four of its last eight contests. The Jayhawks have certainly shown signs of life defensively in recent games, holding eight of their last 10 opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals and that includes last Monday's overtime game at Kansas State. Kansas ranks 14th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom and should be able to contend with a Texas Tech squad that sits 273rd in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Note that Kansas is 15-11 ATS in its last 26 games following consecutive ATS losses and 18-13 ATS in its last 31 contests following a home win by three points or less, as is the case here. Texas Tech is 11-19 ATS in its last 30 games after holding its previous opponent to 60 points or less and 15-21 ATS in its last 36 contests as a home favorite of three points or less. Take Kansas (10*). |
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02-12-24 | Seattle Kraken v. Devils OVER 6.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Monday. These two teams were both involved in relatively low-scoring affairs on Saturday as Seattle dropped a 3-2 decision in Philadelphia and New Jersey fell by a 1-0 score (in overtime) in Carolina. I look for a different story to unfold on Monday as they match up in Newark. The Kraken have scored a grand total of just two goals over their last two games and appeared rather lifeless in Saturday's loss against the Flyers, firing only 19 shots on goal. I'm willing to blame rust on that poor performance as they hadn't played a game since January 30th. Prior to its last two games, Seattle had scored 13 goals over a three-game stretch so we know what it is capable of. The Kraken draw a favorable matchup here as the Devils have had a tough time keeping the puck out of their own net at home this season, allowing 3.9 goals per game. New Jersey was shut out on Saturday but had potted eight goals in its previous two games following the All-Star break. Keep in mind, the Devils recently welcomed back superstar Jack Hughes from injury. Note that the 'over' is 28-22 with the Kraken seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 15-11 when they come off a road loss by one goal. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 21-12 in the Devils last 33 contests after holding their previous opponent to one goal or less and 12-9 in their last 21 games following a contest that totalled three goals or less. Take the over (8*). |
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02-12-24 | Wake Forest v. Duke OVER 151.5 | 69-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Wake Forest and Duke at 7 pm et on Monday. Last Monday we saw an absolute stinker of an ACC matchup as Virginia throttled Miami in an extremely low-scoring game. I expect a much different story to unfold this week as Wake Forest travels to Cameron Indoor Stadium to challenge Duke. The Demon Deacons have quietly reeled off three straight wins. They're on a tear offensively right now having connected on 28, 35, 29 and 29 field goals over their last four games. Duke has caught a couple of favorable matchups at home against Notre Dame and Boston College over the last week but will have to contend with an up-tempo Wake Forest squad here. Note that the Blue Devils have by no means played lockdown defense, allowing eight of their last 10 opponents to get off at least 58 field goal attempts. Wake Forest sits just outside the top-100 in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Defensively, the Demon Deacons can be exposed. They've shown no consistent ability to slow the opposition, allowing three straight opponents to hoist up at least 60 field goal attempts and six in a row to get off at least 57. I mentioned the Deacs are on an offensive tear but so are the Blue Devils. They've knocked down 30 or more field goals in three of their last four games and 26 or more in nine of their last 12 contests. Note that the 'over' is 13-8 in Wake Forest's last 21 games as a road underdog and 23-10 in its last 33 contests following three straight wins over conference opponents. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 15-7 in Duke's last 22 games following consecutive 'under' results and 21-17 in its last 38 contests following a game in which it scored 80 or more points, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). |
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02-11-24 | 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | Top | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 105 h 38 m | Show |
Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. I had this total pegged at 45, maybe 45.5 if I'm being generous to the two offenses. Yet here we are, working with a total of 47.5 at the time of writing with the potential we see it bump up a half-point at some books in advance of Sunday's kickoff. We got the result we wanted in the late game on Conference Championship Sunday as the 49ers got shredded early before rallying for a wild 34-31 victory over the Lions (in which they would have covered the spread were it not for a late Lions touchdown). Note that the 'under' is 16-11 in San Francisco's last 27 games following an 'over' result and 6-3 in its last nine contests after giving up 30 points or more in its previous game, including a perfect 2-0 this season in that latter situation. There is reason to believe the Chiefs can move the football on this 49ers defense but I don't believe game script (this projects as a tightly-contested affair) will force Kansas City to play fast or bomb away. With that said, the Chiefs have attempted 30 or more passes 11 times going back to October 29th and didn't throw for 300 or more yards in any of those contests so even if they do throw the football more than we expect, it doesn't necessarily work against us. Andy Reid's team has evolved into one that relies heavily on its ground attack and short passing game to possess the football for extended stretches and effectively shorten proceedings. That's precisely how they went into Baltimore and upset the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game. I do suspect we'll see the 49ers continue to employ a run-funnel defensive gameplan in this contest in an effort to stamp out Kansas City's big-play potential through the air. The strength of this Niners defense is in the middle - a big reason it was so successful in keeping opposing tight ends under wraps all season long, and certainly in the playoffs. Kansas City TE Travis Kelce will draw plenty of prop bet money from recreational bettors leading up to Sunday's game and I don't think the sportsbooks mind that one bit. On the flip side, the Chiefs defense is elite. It presents challenges all over the field for the 49ers offense. While I'm higher than Niners QB Brock Purdy than some, he's going to have a difficult time trying to find his favorite target WR Brandon Aiyuk against the Chiefs lock-down corners. Meanwhile San Francisco TE George Kittle continues to deal with a nagging toe injury and might be best deployed as a decoy in this particular matchup. RB Christian McCaffrey will get his but he's essentially the only Niners skill position player that draws a favorable matchup here. There could be times where he's on an island trying to carry the Niners offense down the field. Again, any success McCaffrey has figures to keep the clock moving, effectively shortening this contest. The 'under' is 12-7 in the Chiefs last 19 games following a road win and a long-term 27-20 in their last 47 contests after an upset win away from home. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is 4-1 in Kansas City's last five games following a bye week and 23-12 in its last 35 contests in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
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02-11-24 | Bowling Green v. UL - Lafayette OVER 151 | Top | 60-86 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Bowling Green and Louisiana-Lafayette at 3 pm et on Sunday. It's a rare non-conference matchup in February as Bowling Green travels to face Louisiana on Sunday afternoon. The Falcons have quietly reeled off 11 straight 'over' results. While getting out of the MAC for a game may serve as a 'catalyst for change' on most occasions, I'm not convinced that's the case here. Louisiana is coming off consecutive 'under' results but hasn't seen three straight games stay 'under' the total all season. The Ragin' Cajuns don't mind getting out and running and they'll certainly get their opportunity to do so here as the Falcons have allowed four of their last six opponents to get off more than 60 field goal attempts. Worse still, Bowling Green has allowed 11 of its last 14 foes to connect on at least 28 field goals. Louisiana has gotten bogged down at times against slow-paced Sun Belt Conference teams but still checks in having made good on 26 or more field goals in seven of its last 10 contests. Of course we'll need Bowling Green to hold up its end of the bargain offensively to help this total along as well. The Falcons have hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts in 12 of their last 16 games. They enter on a tear having knocked down at least 29 field goals in three of their last four contests. Note that the 'over' is 24-11 in Bowling Green's last 35 games following a win. The 'over' is also 21-13 ATS in Louisiana's last 34 games following an ATS defeat, as is the case here. Take the over (10*). |
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02-11-24 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 226.5 | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Celtics are coming off a wild, high-scoring game against the Wizards on Friday. Interestingly, they haven't posted consecutive 'over' results since January 8th and 10th. While Boston continues to give up too many scoring opportunities (that's been somewhat game-script dependent lately), it has held four straight and 12 of its last 14 opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals. That's not all that stingy of a number by any means but considering the Celtics have allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in 10 straight games, it's worth noting. It's never easy to bait the Heat into a track meet. Miami has gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 12 of its last 15 games and averages only 86 per game at home this season. The Heat are once again locked-in defensively, limiting five straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals entering Sunday's contest. Note that the 'under' is 31-22 in Boston's last 53 games as a road favorite of six points or less and 26-13 in its last 39 contests following a victory by six points or less. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-9 in Miami's last 22 games as a home favorite of six points or less and 11-9 in its last 20 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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02-10-24 | Suns v. Warriors +2 | Top | 112-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Phoenix at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. The Warriors are playing their best basketball of the season right now but so are the Suns. I do think Golden State is well-positioned to keep it rolling as it returns home on Saturday. Note that the Warriors have been red hot offensively, connecting on 43 or more field goals in 12 straight games including 47 or more in eight of those contests. They'll be facing a rather forgiving Suns defense on Saturday, noting that Phoenix has allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games. Golden State on the other hand has limited four of its last six foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. More impressively, the Warriors have held five of their last six opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. The Suns are on a tear offensively but their shots have also been falling at an unsustainable rate as they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in five straight and 12 of their last 14 contests. Phoenix is a long-term 15-31 ATS in its last 46 games and 1-5 ATS this season off a home win by 10 points or more, as is the case here. The Suns are also 12-16 ATS in their last 28 contests following three straight ATS victories. Golden State is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as a home underdog and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 contests playing with triple-revenge (off three straight losses against an opponent). Take Golden State (10*). |
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02-10-24 | Penguins v. Jets OVER 5.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Winnipeg at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. These two teams just faced each other earlier this week with the Penguins skating to a 3-0 victory on home ice. Winnipeg has been held to a grand total of four goals during its current five-game losing streak so it is obviously desperate for a breakout performance here. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has scored three goals or less in a season-high nine straight games following last night's 3-2 defeat in Minnesota. The Pens are still averaging 3.2 goals per contest on the road this season while the Jets average 3.3 goals per game on home ice. Note that the 'over' is 14-7 in Pittsburgh's last 21 road games with the total set at 5.5, as is the case here at the time of writing. The 'over' is also 16-9 in Pittsburgh's last 25 games following a one-goal loss on the road. Winnipeg in is uncharted territory in a sense as it comes off eight straight 'under' results (excluding pushes). That situation has come up only six times since the Jets returned to the league in 2011 with the 'over' going 4-2. The 'over' is also 11-8 in their last 19 games when seeking revenge for a road loss by three goals or more against an opponent. Take the over (8*). |
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02-10-24 | Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma UNDER 139.5 | Top | 62-66 | Win | 100 | 24 h 15 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and Oklahoma at 7 pm et on Saturday. Oklahoma State enters this game off consecutive 'over' results but I look for a different story to unfold as the Cowboys travel to Stillwater for a showdown with the rival Sooners on Saturday. The Cowboys have been positively dreadful offensively for the most part over the last month or so, connecting on 22 or fewer field goals in seven of their last eight games. They'll run into the 16th ranked defense in the country (in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency) according to KenPom on Saturday. The Sooners have limited three straight and five of their last seven foes to 23 or fewer made field goals. While Oklahoma's defense has been stout, it hasn't been quite as consistent offensively, making good on 25 or fewer field goals in seven of its last eight contests. While the Oklahoma State defense is not elite by any means, I do think it is better than it has shown lately, most recently getting lit up by Houston in a 'wrong place at the wrong time situation' after the Cougars dropped a tough one on the road against Kansas three days earlier. The Cowboys have held 15 of 23 opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts this season. Note that the 'under' is 6-1 in Oklahoma State's last seven games as a double-digit road underdog and 18-16 in its last 34 games following an ATS victory. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has seen the 'under' go 12-9 in its last 22 games as a double-digit home favorite and 14-12 in its last 26 contests following a double-digit home victory, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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02-10-24 | Siena v. Manhattan -7 | 68-63 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Manhattan minus the points over Siena at 7 pm et on Saturday. Manhattan has quietly been playing much better lately, going 4-1-1 ATS over its last six contests. The Jaspers have finally found their rhythm offensively, knocking down 26 or more field goals in six straight games. Siena has benefited from facing some exceptionally slow teams such as Marist and St. Peter's lately and in those contests the Saints defense held up reasonably well. They still check in ranked 304th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom). Worse still, Siena checks in 359th (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted offensive efficiency. Note that the Saints have been at their absolute worst in that department lately, connecting on 18 or fewer field goals in five of their last six games, topping out at 22 over that stretch (in a game where they hoisted up 61 field goal attempts). Manhattan is not a good defensive team by any means but it has also faced a pretty brutal schedule lately with four of its last five games coming on the road including matchups with Niagara and Fairfield in enemy territory. Note that Siena is juast 6-11 ATS in its last 17 games following a loss by 15 points or more and 18-24 ATS in its last 14 contests following an ATS loss. Meanwhile, Manhattan is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games following three straight losses against conference opponents, as is the case here. The Jaspers are also 24-19 ATS in their last 43 games after consecutive road losses. Take Manhattan (8*). |
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02-10-24 | UCLA +1.5 v. California | Top | 61-60 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on UCLA plus the points over California at 5:30 pm et on Saturday. This is undoubtedly a game the Bruins have had circled on their calendar since a stunning 66-57 home loss against the Bears back on January 6th. UCLA has certainly turned things around since that loss, going 6-2 over its last eight games. It holds the rest advantage here having not played since Wednesday’s win at Stanford. Cal was involved in an overtime barn-burner - a game that it won on Thursday against USC. The Bears continue to give up too many scoring opportunities for my liking, even if aided by overtime last time out. They’ve allowed seven of their last 11 opponents to hoist up at least 62 field goal attempts. While the Bears have knocked down at least 25 field goals themselves in eight straight contests they’ve needed more than 60 field goal attempts to get there in six of those games. UCLA figures to put the clamps on the Cal offense, noting that the Bruins have limited seven straight opponents to 54 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that UCLA is 18-12 ATS in its last 30 road games and a perfect 4-0 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which it scored 60 points or less. Meanwhile, Cal is 10-15 ATS in its last 25 games as a home favorite and 0-6 ATS in its last six contests after scoring 75 points or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take UCLA (10*). |
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02-09-24 | Penguins v. Wild OVER 6 | 2-3 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring games last time out with the Penguins skating to a 3-0 victory over the Jets and the Wild prevailing 2-1 over the Blackhawks. I expect a different story to unfold on Friday. Pittsburgh has now been held to three goals or less in a season-high eight straight games. I think there's a good chance it snaps that streak here. Note that the Pens have been a higher-scoring team on the road than at home this season, averaging 3.2 goals per game. They'll be facing a Wild squad that allows 3.3 goals per contest on home ice. Minnesota will give the start to former Pen Marc-Andre Fleury after he didn't get the nod in the previous matchup between these two teams in Pittsburgh. Fleury owns a less than impressive .889 save percentage in 12 appearances at home this season. The Pens lit him up for four goals on 31 shots in their lone matchup with him last season. The question becomes whether Minnesota can contribute enough offensively to help this total along. I believe it can. The Wild average 3.0 goals per game on home ice this season. They've been held to two goals or less in three straight games. That's happened only once previously this season (a four-game streak). Note that the 'over' is 13-10 in Pittsburgh's last 23 games following three straight 'under' results, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 16-11 in the Pens last 27 games following a contest that totalled three goals or less. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 32-18 in Minnesota's last 50 contests when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent and 19-14 in its last 33 games following a win over a division opponent. Take the over (8*). |
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02-09-24 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 242.5 | Top | 127-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Friday. These two teams just met back on January 10th in Atlanta and produced a total of 271 points (aided by an overtime period). I'm anticipating another high-scoring affair in Friday's rematch. The Hawks are on a scoring tear right now. They've connected on 51, 44, 53, 49, 55 (overtime game against Golden State), 51 and 43 field goals over their last seven contests. They've also hoisted up at least 93 field goal attempts in 10 straight games. The 76ers don't figure to stand in their way on Friday. Philadelphia has sagged defensively in the absence of Joel Embiid, allowing six straight and eight of their last nine opponents to knock down at least 42 field goals. On the flip side, I do think it's only a matter of time before the Sixers shots start falling. They've gotten off 93 or more field goal attempts in four straight games, making good on 47, 44, 40 and 41 over that stretch. The door is wide open for a breakout performance here, noting that Atlanta has allowed five straight and seven of its last eight opponents to connect on at least 47 field goals. Note that the 'over' is 22-18 in the Hawks last 40 games as a road favorite. The 'over' is also 16-11 in the Sixers last 27 home games with the total set at 230 points or higher. Take the over (10*). |
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02-09-24 | Hawks v. 76ers +4.5 | 127-121 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The 76ers check in 0-3 on their current homestand (which wraps up tonight), having lost seven of their last eight games overall. The wheels have clearly come off since Joel Embiid went down to injury but I don't expect Philadelphia to fold the tent. This is an important game as they look to salvage the finale of this homestand and I'm confident they'll give the Hawks all they can handle. Note that Atlanta defeated Philadelphia 139-132 in overtime at home back on January 10th. Atlanta checks in off consecutive losses including a taxing 125-117 loss in Boston two nights ago in which it battled hard for four quarters but ultimately fell just short. My concern with the Hawks here is their defensive play. They've allowed seven of their last eight opponents to knock down at least 47 field goals. The 76ers are primed for a breakout offensively as they've been pushing the pace but the shots simply haven't been falling. Note that they've gotten off 93 or more field goal attempts in four straight games. Atlanta is just 9-19 ATS in its last 28 games as a road favorite of six points or less and a miserable 30-61 ATS in its last 91 contests following an ATS win. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 29-15 ATS in its last 44 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent and 13-3 ATS in its last 16 contests following three straight ATS defeats. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
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02-08-24 | Wolves v. Bucks UNDER 228.5 | 129-105 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Neither of these teams are playing their best basketball right now. The Timberwolves check in 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS over their last 10 games while the Bucks have lost four of their last five contests both SU and ATS. Minnesota did give up 129 points in an overtime defeat in Chicago two nights ago but remains locked-in defensively having held five straight and nine of its last 11 opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals in regulation time. It might be catching Milwaukee at the right time as Khris Middleton is among those sidelined while Damian Lillard is questionable to play on Thursday after missing Tuesday's contest in Phoenix. Offensively, it's been a bit of a slog for the T'Wolves as they've connected on 42 or fewer field goals in three straight and six of their last eight contests. Here, they'll run into a Bucks squad that should have one of their key stoppers back on the floor in Brook Lopez after he missed a few games due to personal reasons. While Milwaukee certainly hasn't been dominant defensively during its recent slide, it has still limited eight of its last 10 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 22-15 in the T'Wolves last 37 games following an upset loss including 7-2 this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 10-6 in the Bucks last 16 home games with the line set between +3 and -3. Take the under (8*). |
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02-08-24 | Jets -148 v. Flyers | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -148 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Winnipeg over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Jets fell behind early and never recovered in a 3-0 loss in Pittsburgh on Tuesday. That marked their fourth straight loss having scored just three goals over that stretch. I do like their chances of bouncing back on Thursday, however, as they look for revenge after dropping a 2-0 decision at home against the Flyers in mid-January. Despite Tuesday's setback, Winnipeg remains 14-9 on the road this season where it has held the opposition to just 2.3 goals per contest. In stark contrast, Philadelphia is 11-14 on home ice, allowing 3.3 goals per game. Note that the Jets are 8-3 in their last 11 games when seeking revenge for a shutout loss against an opponent. They're also 21-17 in their last 38 contests following a loss by three goals or more. Meanwhile, the Flyers are just 5-11 in their last 16 games after recording a one-goal win on the road, as is the case here. Philadelphia is also a miserable 11-28 in its last 39 contests after holding its previous opponent to one goal or less. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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02-08-24 | Iona -2 v. Niagara | Top | 74-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Iona minus the points over Niagara at 7 pm et on Thursday. This is a rematch of a game played between these two teams back on January 7th in which Niagara staged a 75-73 upset victory as a 9.5-point underdog. Since then, Iona has gone on a tear, winning five of its last six games while playing as well offensively as any team in the MAAC. I look for the Gaels to answer back against the Purple Eagles in this spot. Note that Iona has hoisted up more than 60 field goal attempts in each of its last seven games, putting a ton of pressure on opposing defenses. The Gaels haven't just been chucking it up though, they've also made good on 29 or more field goals in six of their last seven contests. Here, they draw a mouth-watering matchup against a Niagara team that ranks 320th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom). The Purple Eagles did hold up reasonably well defensively in their last two games but those came against a slow-paced St. Peter's team on the road and a struggling Canisius squad at home. Note that Niagara is just two games removed from allowing a miserable Manhattan team to knock down 32-of-71 field goal attempts here at home. While the Purple Eagles did take the most recent meeting in this series, they haven't won consecutive matchups against the Gaels since 2020. Iona is a long-term 34-27 ATS in its last 61 games when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent. The Gaels are also 21-18 ATS in their last 39 contests following an ATS loss, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Niagara is 6-8 ATS in its last 14 games following consecutive wins in-conference and 5-7 ATS in its last 12 contests after holding its last two opponents to 65 points or less. Take Iona (10*). |
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02-08-24 | Rider +5 v. Fairfield | 67-84 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Rider plus the points over Fairfield at 7 pm et on Thursday. This will be the second meeting between these two teams this season after Fairfield staged a minor upset in an 88-81 win at Rider back on December 3rd. That was an interesting game as the Broncs only managed to connect on 1-of-12 three-point attempts and were outscored 27-18 at the free throw line in the home defeat. Needless to say, this is a game Rider has undoubtedly had circled on its calendar. The Broncs enter this game on the heels of four straight ATS victories but had their three-game winning streak halted in a wild 94-93 loss at Iona last time out. Meanwhile, Fairfield snapped its two-game losing streak with a nine-point win over lowly Manhattan on Sunday but has still dropped the cash in four straight contests. Stags opponents have been 'filling it up' recently, connecting on 26 or more field goals in nine of their last 11 games. This is a team that boosted its defensive numbers thanks to a rather soft schedule earlier in the season, ranking 331rd in the country in strength of schedule according to KenPom. Offensively, Fairfield has been on point, making good on 27 or more field goals in five of its last six games. I do think the Broncs will offer some resistance here. Note that Rider has held three of its last four opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back nine games to find the last time it allowed an opponent to connect on at least 30 field goals and a whopping 17 games for the last time it gave up more than 30 made field goals (it has happened only twice all season). You only need to go back two games to find the last time the Stags allowed more than 30 and it has happened six times this season. Rider checks in 18-15 ATS in its last 33 games as a road underdog and is an impressive 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent. Fairfield is just 12-21 ATS in its last 33 home games and 2-8 ATS in its last 10 contests following a home win over a conference opponent. Take Rider (8*). |
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02-07-24 | Portland v. Gonzaga -26 | Top | 64-96 | Win | 100 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
West Coast Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Gonzaga minus the points over Portland at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Portland used up everything it had in the tank in Saturday's 93-89 upset win over Pepperdine - its second straight victory. This has still been a trying campaign for the Pilots as they check in 9-15 including 2-11 on the road. They're in the wrong place at the wrong time on Wednesday as Gonzaga comes off a tough 64-62 loss at home against St. Mary's. The Bulldogs were held down by a good Gaels defense in that game but that isn't like to be the case on Wednesday. Portland has allowed seven of its last eight opponents to get off at least 62 field goal attempts with five of those foes knocking down at least 34. In fact, KenPom rates Portland 335th out of 362 Division-I teams in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. Gonzaga has made good on 32 or more field goals in six of its last nine contests and ranks 28th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have been steady if not spectacular defensively, limiting six consecutive opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Note that Portland is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog of between 24.5 and 30 points and 26-44 ATS in its last 70 contests following a home win over a conference opponent. Gonzaga is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following a home loss in-conference and 14-9 ATS in its last 23 contests following an upset loss at home. Take Gonzaga (10*). |
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02-07-24 | Warriors v. 76ers +2.5 | Top | 127-104 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Golden State at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The 76ers have lost two games in a row and six of their last seven overall as they struggled to adapt to life without Joel Embiid. I don't think Philadelphia is as bad as it has looked lately, however, and do think it will get things straightened out sooner rather than later. Note that the 76ers opponents have been shooting the lights out during their current slide. The good news is, the Sixers have continued to limit the opposition's scoring opportunities, allowing 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last six games. On the flip side, it's only a matter of time before the Sixers start cashing in on their own opportunities, noting that they've hoisted up 94, 96 and 93 field goal attempts in their last three contests. The Warriors have gotten a little too loose for my liking defensively, allowing nine of their last 14 opponents to get off at least 89 field goal attempts. While it looks like Golden State has been lighting it up offensively during its current 3-1 run, it has actually been fairly muted, connecting on 44, 46, 46 and 43 field goals in regulation time over that stretch (still impressive numbers but not overwhelmingly so). For Golden State this will be its fifth game in five different cities in the last nine nights. Philadelphia on the other hand has the advantage of staying home for a third straight contest. Note that the Warriors are just 12-26 ATS in their last 38 games as a road favorite of six points or less and 10-13 ATS in their last 23 contests following a double-digit road win. Meanwhile, the 76ers are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Philadelphia is also 21-17 ATS in its last 38 contests following a double-digit loss. Finally, we'll note that the favorite has covered the spread in three straight meetings in this series. It hasn't done so in four consecutive matchups between these two teams since 2010-12. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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02-07-24 | Hawks v. Celtics -12 | 117-125 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. First off, it's worth noting that the straight-up winner has covered the spread in 17 straight meetings between these two teams. I look for that trend to continue on Wednesday. Atlanta had an off day on Tuesday but you have to wonder how much it has in the tank as it heads on the road for this two-game trip. Note that the Hawks have been involved in six straight wild, high-scoring affairs with five of those contests decided by nine points or less and three settled by five or less. The Celtics on the other hand are coming off what amounted to little more than a glorified scrimmage against the undermanned Grizzlies at home on Sunday. In fact, Boston will be playing just its third game in the last eight nights, all at home. The Celtics have turned things around defensively over their last two contests, holding the Lakers and Grizzlies to 38 and 35 made field goals, respectively. It's a much different story for the Hawks as they've allowed six of their last seven opponents to knock down at least 46 field goals in regulation time despite four of those six foes hoisting up fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Atlanta checks in 27-45 ATS in its last 72 games as a road underdog and 17-28 ATS in its last 45 contests following a home loss. Boston is 52-36 ATS in its last 88 contests following a home win and 12-10 ATS in its last 22 games after a home win by 20 points or more, including a 3-1 ATS mark this season. Take Boston (8*). |
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02-07-24 | Raptors v. Hornets OVER 225.5 | 123-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors have seen each of their last three games go 'over' the total while the Hornets are coming off a high-scoring affair against the Lakers as well. I expect more of the same as these two struggling teams match up on Wednesday. The Raptors look like a tired team right now, certainly disinterested in playing much defense having allowed 47 or more made field goals in regulation time in six of their last nine contests and 44 or more in eight of those games. Not only that but they've had no success (or interest in) slowing their opponents' pace, allowing seven of their last eight foes to hoist up at least 93 field goal attempts. The Hornets have been pushing the pace a little more lately, getting off 90 or more field goal attempts in three of their last four contests. Similar to Toronto, Charlotte has been getting lashed defensively, allowing seven straight and 10 of its last 12 opponents to knock down 44 or more field goals. Note that the 'over' is 17-15 in the Raptors last 32 games as a road favorite and 5-1 in their last six contests after giving up 135 points or more in their previous game. Meanwhile, the 'over' is a long-term 59-50 in the Hornets last 109 games with the total set between 220 and 229.5 points. The 'under' cashed in the most recent matchup between these two teams on December 18th but we haven't seen consecutive 'under' results in this series over the last six meetings. Take the over (8*). |
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02-07-24 | Stars v. Maple Leafs -135 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Dallas at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Stars were on the ice in Buffalo last night and while a 2-1 regulation time victory doesn't appear all that taxing at first glance, it's worth noting that they were outshot 48-30 and spent a lot of the night chasing the Sabres around in their own zone. Now they make the short trip to Toronto where you have to figure the Maple Leafs will be in a foul mood after dropping a 3-2 decision against the Islanders on Monday. Toronto should be happy to see Dallas as it has won five straight meetings in this series. In fact, you would have to go all the way back to pre-Covid days in February of 2020 to find the last time the Stars won a game in this series. Dallas is currently approaching uncharted territory as it checks in off four straight wins, having yet to notch five consecutive victories this season. Note that the Stars are just 5-11 in their last 16 games when seeking revenge for a home loss by three or more goals against an opponent, as is the case here. The Leafs are 23-15 in their last 38 games following a home loss and a perfect 3-0 this season when coming off a one-goal loss on home ice. Take Toronto (8*). |
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02-06-24 | Avalanche v. Devils OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and New Jersey at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Avalanche were involved in a low-scoring affair in Manhattan last night but I look for a different story to unfold as they make the short trip to Newark to face the Devils on Tuesday. New Jersey checks in allowing 3.9 goals per game on home ice this season. The Devils are in need of help between the pipes noting they don't have a goaltender on their roster that has recorded a save percentage higher than .895 this season. I do expect New Jersey to hang tough here, however, noting that it comes off consecutive road losses prior to the All-Star break. The Devils certainly haven't forgotten a 6-3 loss they suffered in Colorado in the lone previous meeting between these teams this season. Note that the 'over' is 29-23 in the Devils last 52 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent. The Avalanche are likely to give backup goaltender Justus Annunen just his second start of the season after Alexandar Georgiev faced his former team last night. Annunen allowed four goals in a 7-4 victory in Ottawa in his lone previous start this season. Take the over (10*). |
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02-06-24 | Mavs v. Nets +2.5 | 119-107 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Dallas at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams had very different results last night as Dallas defeated Philadelphia in blowout fashion while Brooklyn dropped a double-digit decision against Golden State. I look for the Nets to bounce back on Tuesday as they look to avenge an earlier five-point loss against the Mavs in Dallas. Note that Dallas has now won four straight meetings in this series. It hasn't delivered five consecutive wins over Brooklyn since 2009-2011. The Nets have given up way too many scoring opportunities over the last couple of games, yielding 96 and 93 field goal attempts against the 76ers and Warriors, respectively. They get a bit of a reprieve here as the Mavs haven't been pushing the pace, getting off 69, 76, 81 and 87 field goal attempts over their last four games. On the flip side, Dallas has allowed six of its last seven opponents to knock down at least 43 field goals. Brooklyn has held 10 of its last 12 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. Dallas is just 15-17 ATS in its last 32 games played on the second of back-to-back nights and 21-29 ATS in its last 50 contests following a road victory. Meanwhile, Brooklyn is 28-23 ATS in its last 51 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent and 8-5 ATS when coming off a home loss this season. Take Brooklyn (8*). |
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02-06-24 | DePaul v. St. John's -21.5 | Top | 57-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Year. My selection is on St. John's minus the points over DePaul at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Blue Demons are mired in a miserable season and they're in the wrong place at the wrong time on Tuesday as they take on St. John's at UBS Arena. The Red Storm are coming off consecutive losses but those came on the road against Xavier and at home against Connecticut. They draw a smash spot here as the Blue Demons are as bad as they've been in quite some time and enter on the heels of 10 straight losses. DePaul has managed to knock down just 30 field goals over its last two games combined. The Blue Demons check in 289th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. They haven't been much better defensively, allowing seven of their last eight opponents to make good on at least 30 field goals. St. John's figures to punish the DePaul defense here, noting the Red Storm rank 44th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and 94th in adjusted tempo. Keep in mind, St. John's has knocked down 32, 33, 37, 37 and 33 field goals in the last five meetings in this series and those came against much tougher Blue Demon squads. DePaul is just 9-14 ATS in its last 23 games as a double-digit underdog and 4-6 in its last 10 contests following a loss by 20 or more points in-conference. Meanwhile, St. John's is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games after losing consecutive games in-conference and a long-term 24-18 ATS when those two losses came by double-digit margins, as is the case here. Take St. John's (10*). |
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02-05-24 | Kings v. Cavs UNDER 235.5 | Top | 110-136 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. Sacramento has posted consecutive 'over' results as it wraps up its long seven-game road trip on Monday in Cleveland. I expect a different story to unfold here. The Kings have been ultra-efficient offensively but it's not as if they've been playing at a break-neck pace. They check in having connected on 43 or fewer field goals in four of their last five games. Here they'll run into a Cavaliers squad that is locked-in defensively and has been for weeks. Cleveland has held an incredible nine of its last 11 opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Offensively, the Cavs have certainly been good but aren't exactly blowing the doors off the opposition, making good on 46 or fewer field goals in 11 of their last 13 contests. The Kings, while not known for their defensive prowess, have been terrific at that end of the floor as well, limiting four of their last five foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 38-25 in the Kings last 63 games as a road underdog and 21-12 in their last 33 contests as a road underdog of six points or less. The 'under' is also a modest 26-24 in their last 50 games after consecutive 'over' results. Meanwhile, the Cavs have seen the 'under' go 12-6 in their last 18 contests with the total set at 230 points or higher. The 'under' is also 19-12 in their last 31 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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02-05-24 | Islanders v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The All-Star break probably came at the right time for the Islanders and new head coach Patrick Roy as they had lost three straight games heading in. When we last saw them take the ice they dropped a 3-2 home decision against the Panthers. Note that the 'over' is 12-6 with New York coming off an 'under' result this season. The Isles have been a disappointment defensively, allowing 3.4 goals per game with that number rising to 3.5 on the road. The Maple Leafs are in a similar boat in that department having allowed 3.5 goals per game on home ice this season. Of course, Toronto also boasts one of the best offenses in the league, averaging 3.7 goals per contest here at home. Note that the 'over' is 12-4 in the Leafs last 16 games after allowing two goals or less in three straight games, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 24-12 in their last 36 contests following three straight victories. Finally, we'll note that the 'over' has cashed in four straight meetings in this series. Take the over (8*). |
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02-05-24 | Miami-FL v. Virginia UNDER 132 | Top | 38-60 | Win | 100 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Virginia at 7 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams have been on a bit of a tear (relatively speaking) offensively in recent weeks but I look for Monday's matchup to take on more of a defensive flavor. Miami delivered an 82-74 home win over Virginia Tech on Saturday. While the Hurricanes have connected on 24 or more field goals in eight straight games, they haven't knocked down 30 or more field goals since back on January 6th against Wake Forest. They obviously draw a tough challenge here as Virginia ranks 12th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Cavaliers have held six straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. They've also limited six of their last seven foes to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, Virginia has made good on more than 27 field goals just once in its last eight contests. Note that the 'under' is 12-6 in Miami's last 18 games as a road underdog and 11-7 in its last 18 games following a home win in-conference. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 11-6 in Virginia's last 17 games following consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here. The 'under' is also a perfect 7-0 in the Cavaliers last seven games following a win by three points or less in-conference. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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02-04-24 | Stanford v. Arizona OVER 162 | 71-82 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Stanford and Arizona at 8 pm et on Sunday. The 'over' has cashed in five straight meetings between these teams and I expect that trend to continue on Sunday. Stanford took the first matchup of the season in stunning fashion, cruising to a 100-82 home win on New Year's Eve. Arizona remains one of the best offensive teams in the country, ranking sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. They're also just one spot outside the top-10 in adjusted tempo. Stanford has shown no ability to slow the pace of the opposition, allowing 60 or more field goal attempts in seven straight and 13 of their last 14 games overall. They did hold Arizona State down in a revenge game two nights ago but now the shoe is on the other foot. Note that Arizona has knocked down 28 or more field goals in 13 of its last 15 games and 18 of 21 contests overall this season. The question is whether Stanford can contribute enough to help this total along. While Arizona is tough defensively, the simple fact that it plays at such a fast pace tends to give the opposition plenty of scoring opportunities. Note that the Wildcats have allowed the opposition to connect on 26 or more field goals in six of their last seven games. The 'over' is 8-6 in Stanford's last 14 games following consecutive 'under' results and 23-17 in its last 40 contests following a win. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 21-16 in Arizona's last 37 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent and 14-9 in its last 23 contests following a home win by 20 points or more, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). |
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02-04-24 | Grizzlies v. Celtics -16.5 | 91-131 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Memphis at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. This is a steep line even by today's NBA standards but I think it will prove too short. Memphis is missing a number of key contributors right now and checks in having lost four straight games, going 2-2 ATS over that stretch. Note that the one thing the Grizzlies have been able to hang their hat on at times this season has been their defense but even that has sagged lately. Memphis has allowed its last four opponents to knock down 44, 43, 41 and 46 field goals. That's despite three of those four opponents getting off 86 or fewer field goal attempts. Boston figures to push it much more on Sunday, noting that the Celtics have hoisted up 93 field goal attempts per game on average at home this season. Boston is inexplicably mired in a four-game ATS losing streak. The Celtics do have the rest advantage here having not played since Thursday's no-show against the Lebron and A.D.-less Lakers. On a positive note, Boston has connected on more than 40 field goals in six of its last seven games. The problem defensively has been the fact that the Celtics have been far too loose, allowing more than 90 field goal attempts in seven straight games. The Grizzlies don't figure to push the pace here, however, noting that Memphis has gotten off 90 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 of its last 11 games. The Grizzlies are just 25-37 ATS in their last 62 games as a road underdog and 17-20 ATS in their last 37 games following a home loss. Meanwhile, the Celtics are 38-23 ATS in their last 61 games after scoring 105 points or less in their previous game and 19-13 ATS in their last 32 contests following an upset loss at home. Take Boston (8*). |
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02-04-24 | Clippers v. Heat UNDER 225.5 | 103-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Miami at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. Kawhi Leonard called out his team for its poor defensive play in Friday's 136-125 win in Detroit. In that contest, the Clippers allowed 45 made field goals for a second straight game. While the Clips haven't exactly been locked-in defensively on their current road trip, it's not as if they've been getting lit up either. Note that Los Angeles has held 10 straight and 17 of its last 18 opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals. The Heat have rebounded following a seven-game losing streak to deliver consecutive wins over the Kings and Wizards. In those two contests they allowed the opposition to knock down just 41 and 37 field goals. Terry Rozier in particular has shown a renewed commitment to defense, even if it has come at the expense of his offensive production. Offensively, the Heat remain capped by a relatively low ceiling, noting they've connected on 42 or fewer field goals in an incredible 18 straight games. You would have to go back five games to find the last time they got off more than 88 field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 16-6 in the Clippers last 22 games following a win but non-cover and 7-4 in their last 11 contests after scoring 125 points or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-6 in the Heat's last 15 games following consecutive ATS wins as favorites and 12-9 in their last 21 contests as a home underdog of six points or less. Take the under (8*). |
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02-03-24 | Oregon v. UCLA +1.5 | 63-71 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCLA plus the points over Oregon at 10 pm et on Saturday. Oregon picked up a much-needed victory on the road against USC on Thursday but remains just 2-3 over its last five games entering Saturday's showdown with UCLA. The Ducks got off a whopping 65 field goal attempts in that victory, taking advantage of a Charmin' soft USC defense. The Ducks obviously prefer to push the pace when they can but run into a tough matchup here as the Bruins rank 34th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and 343rd in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom) and come in playing their best basketball of the season. UCLA has held five straight opponents to 54 or fewer field goal attempts. They've limited 10 of their last 11 opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, we have seen some signs of life from the UCLA offense as it has knocked down 25, 22, 25, 20 and 25 field goals over its last five contests, matching its longest streak of 20+ made field goals this season. I realize those numbers aren't eye-popping but when you play at the slow pace UCLA does, they're notable. Oregon checks in having allowed seven of its last eight opponents to connect on 27 or more field goals. Note that despite Thursday's win and cover, Oregon is still just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games as a road favorite. The Ducks are also 12-19 ATS in their last 31 contests following a victory in-conference. UCLA is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games as a home favorite of three points or less and 13-7 ATS in its last 20 contests off a win but non-cover, as is the case here. Take UCLA (8*). |