My selection is on Senegal +1.5 goals over France at 3 pm et on Tuesday.

You would have to go back 12 matches - all the way to November - to find the last time Senegal lost a match by more than a single goal (I'm not counting an 'awarded' 3-0 victory by Morocco in the Africa Cup of Nations after the result was overturned). That defeat back in November came by a 2-0 score against Brazil. Here, I look for the Senegalese to give France all it can handle in the two teams' World Cup opener. Of note, France has conceded at least a goal in five consecutive matches. While the French have a tendency to get off on their front foot, scoring first in five of their last six contests, they also yield plenty of scoring opportunities to the opposition. I don't expect this punchy Senegal squad to ever be completely out of this match. Take Senegal +1.5 goals (8*).

Group G Game of the Year. My selection is on Iran -0.5 goals over New Zealand at 9 pm et on Monday.

I don't expect Iran to get a lot of support from casual bettors leading up to the Group G opener between these two teams at SoFi Stadium on Monday. After all, the Iranians face an uphill battle travel-wise, forced to fly into and out of the United States in a 24-hour window for each match. I do think we'll see a resilient Iran squad, however, and believe it draws a favorable opening matchup against New Zealand. The All Whites might just be one of the weakest teams in the World Cup field this year. They enter this contest having conceded at least a goal in 11 straight contests and that's concerning as they figure to have difficulty breaking down the Iranian defense in this one. You would have to go back four matches to find the last time Iran failed to deliver an outright victory. In a match where goals are projected to come at a premium, I'm confident backing Iran to find a game-clincher at a reasonable price. Take Iran -0.5 goals (10*).

Favorite of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Portland at 8 pm et on Monday.

I'm not sure the betting marketplace is properly quantifying the Lynx's dominance this season. Minnesota does check in off a hard-fought loss in Las Vegas on Saturday but that only served to snap its eight-game winning streak. The Lynx are still 7-2 ATS over their last nine games and I look for them to dispose of the expansion Fire without much difficulty on Monday. Portland is coming off an 'upset' win at home against Dallas on Saturday. The Fire were fortunate that the Wings shot poorly in that contest. Note that Portland has now allowed its last three opponents to hoist up 75, 72 and 74 field goal attempts - that's what I like to call 'matador-like' defense. The Lynx are poised to take advantage as they enter having knocked down 37, 38 and 36 field goals over their last three games. Take Minnesota (10*).

Group F Game of the Year. My selection is on Japan +0.5 goals over the Netherlands at 4 pm et on Sunday.

The Netherlands features plenty of household names and will understandably be a popular bet to prevail in this Group F opener on Sunday. We'll go the other way and grab the half-goal with Japan as it checks in undefeated across its last seven matches, winning its last six outright and having not conceded a single goal over its last five contests. There's a good chance it will concede one against an ultra-talented Dutch side, however, you would have to go back five matches to find the last time the latter recorded a clean sheet. I certainly feel that Japan can find a goal as well in this contest and a draw certainly wouldn't be all that disappointing of an outcome foe either side in a group where there's a decent chance we see both of these sides ultimately advance. Take Japan +0.5 goals (10*).

My selection is on Washington plus the points over New York at 3 pm et on Sunday.

The Mystics won but failed to cover against the Tempo on Friday. While it hasn't been a banner start for Washington, it has actually suffered just one previous ATS losing streak this season as it dropped the cash in back-to-back games on May 18th and 24th. New York is in off a double-digit win and cover in Atlanta on Thursday. The Liberty have put together just one previous ATS winning streak, a four-gamer from May 27th to June 6th. I think there's a path for the Mystics to effectively shorten proceedings on Sunday, noting that they've held seven straight opponents to 66 or fewer field goal attempts. New York on the other hand has yielded 70+ field goal attempts to the opposition in four straight contests. The first meeting between these two teams this season went New York's way back on May 10th but the margin of victory was only five points, albeit in Washington. Take Washington (8*).

My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Saturday.

The Sparks do own the better record in this matchup this season but the Mercury have faced a considerably more difficult schedule by most metrics. Phoenix will be out for 'revenge' on Saturday after it was 'upset' at home against Los Angeles back on May 21st. I feel the Sparks are the more vulnerable side defensively, noting that they've allowed 30+ made field goals in three of thier last four and five of their last seven games overall. That first meeting went their way thanks to an exceptional shooting performance (31-of-64 from the field) while the Mercury couldn't take advantage of their 69 field goal attempts, knocking down only 29. Take Phoenix (8*).

My selection is on Portland plus the points over Dallas at 8:30 pm et on Saturday.

You would be hard-pressed to find may bettors looking to back the Fire on Saturday. Portland has lost four straight games both SU and ATS and hosts a Dallas team that checks in off a blowout win over Phoenix two nights ago and has lost just twice in its last nine contests. We'll take a flyer on the home side, however, noting that the Wings are 0-3 SU and ATS when coming off a game that saw them shoot 50% or better from the field this season, as is the case here. Of note, the Wings have allowed five of their six opponents away from home to connect on 32 or more field goals. I think the door is open for the Fire to take this game down to the wire at the very least. Take Portland (8*).

My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Las Vegas at 8 pm et on Saturday.

We'll grab the points with the Lynx in this showdown between two of the WNBA's best teams in Las Vegas. Both teams are into uncharted territory as the Lynx ride an eight-game winning streak while the Aces have reeled off five straight victories. Minnesota has the rest advantage here having not played since Tuesday's 100-76 dismantling of a good Dallas team at home. Las Vegas won in similar blowout fashion on the road against Portland on Thursday. I do think we're seeing some cracks in the Aces armor right now as they've allowed their last two opponents to knock down 33 and 36 field goals. You would have to go back 10 games to find the last time the Lynx allowed the opposition to connect on more than 30 field goals. I think the case can be made for the wrong team being favored in this, the first matchup of the season between these teams. Take Minnesota (8*).

My selection is on Switzerland -1.5 goals over Qatar at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Qatar showed some life as the host in the most recent World Cup but make no mistake, this squad isn't nearly as well-organized or attack-minded. Switzerland last played in an un-inspiring 1-1 draw against Australia in a World Cup tune-up match earlier this month. The Swiss have the potential to be one of the more exciting teams in the 2026 field, however, and they'll be looking to get off to a positive start here. Qatar hasn't managed to find the back of the net in any of its last three matches and just once in five games going back to December - despite facing a rather weak slate of opponents. Switzerland represents a significant step up in class and I expect Qatar to fall at least two goals short. Take Switzerland -1.5 goals (8*).

My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Seattle at 10 pm et on Friday.

These two teams matched up previously in their first game of the season and the result was a 91-80 Golden State victory here in Seattle. The winning margin could have been even bigger were it not for the Valkyries having an off shooting night, connecting on just 31-of-74 field goal attempts. They catch Seattle playing matador-like defense leading up to this rematch. The Storm have allowed four of their last five opponents to hoist up 70+ field goal attempts. They lost by only five and covered the spread against the Sparks two nights ago but that was thanks to Los Angeles shooting a miserable 38.7% from the field. Golden State snapped its two-game slide with a win but non-cover at home against Phoenix on Tuesday. The Valkyries have now lost consecutive games ATS and that puts them in uncharted territory as it marks their longest such ATS skid of the season. Meanwhile, the Storm have reeled off back-to-back ATS wins and that two-game ATS winning streak matches their longest of the season. The last time they won consecutive games ATS they followed it up with a 14-point loss at home against Washington on May 27th. Take Golden State (8*).

My selection is on Portland plus the points over Las Vegas at 10 pm et on Thursday.

The Fire have endured three straight losses both SU and ATS but they've had three full days to stew over Sunday's 89-72 defeat in Los Angeles and I look for them to rebound at home against the surging Aces on Thursday. Las Vegas has to be feeling good about itself after reeling off four straight victories, going 3-1 ATS over that stretch. Of note, the Aces are entering uncharted territory as their four-game winning streak matches their longest of the season to date. I do think there's a path for the Fire to at the very least take this one down to the wire, noting that Las Vegas has been fairly forgiving defensively in recent games, allowing three of its last four opponents to hoist up 72 or more field goal attempts. Take Portland (8*).

My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Indiana at 7 pm et on Thursday.

The Fever are coming off a thrilling 78-76 win in Washington last time out but are just 1-4 ATS over their last five contests. I think they're in tough trying to cover lofty pointspreads like the one we're working with on Thursday, noting that they've been held to 30 or fewer made field goals in seven straight contests. Chicago snapped its seven-game ATS slide (depending on your number) last time out but still lost its second straight game. I do think the Sky are a better team than they've shown in recent weeks. Remember, they got off to a 3-1 start to the campaign including 'upset' road wins over Golden State and Minnesota. Look for them to take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take Chicago (8*).

My selection is on New York minus the points over San Antonio at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday.

There was a lot of distraction swirling around the Knicks in advance of Game 3 of this series on Monday. Most went into that game thinking New York was going to push San Antonio to the brink of elimination but of course we thought otherwise, backing the Spurs in their much-needed 115-111 victory. I do think we'll see the Knicks settle in a little better in Game 4 on Wednesday after so much bottled up anticipation was let out by the city as a whole in Game 3. Of course, a big difference in Game 3 was the foul shot discrepancy with the Spurs getting off 32 attempts from the stripe compared to the Knicks 22. That's obviously not something we can project here but I would at least expect a few more calls to go New York's way. The Knicks have been able to get their looks in this series, hoisting up 94, 89 and 88 field goal attempts through three games. The shots haven't necessarily been falling but I do think the door is open for a bounce-back performance here. The fact that New York is coming off a loss is notable as it has endured just three different losing streaks dating back to January 21st. And of course the straight-up winner has now gone an incredible 27-0 ATS in San Antonio's last 27 contests. Take New York (9*).

My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Cubs have now dropped consecutive games after losing the opener of this series last night. I like their chances of bouncing back on Wednesday. Shota Imanaga will take the ball for Chicago. I do think he's too good of a pitcher to continue struggling the way he has. He has been lit up for 12 home runs over his last four starts, yielding 26 earned runs over that stretch. He has faced a difficult slate of opponents over that stretch - not that it's any excuse - in the Brewers, Astros, Cardinals and Athletics, not to mention some adverse weather conditions at Wrigley Field (three of those four outings came at home). On the season, Imanaga still owns a solid 1.08 WHIP and I think he can limit the damage here, noting the Rockies rank 22nd in the majors in xwOBA over the last week and 27th in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Colorado will give another start to Michael Lorenzen. He has quite simply been one of the worst starters in baseball this season, logging a 5.11 FIP and a 2.00 WHIP. To the surprise of no one, the decision to join the Rockies and make the majority of his starts at Coors Field has not been a good one. Current Cubs hitters are a solid 10-for-37 (.270) with a .891 OPS against the right-hander with five of those 10 hits going for extra bases. Both bullpens are in similar shape entering this contest as both had a day off on Monday before opening this series last night. We'll certainly give the edge to the Chicago 'pen as it owns a solid 3.51 ERA And 1.23 WHIP on the season compared to Colorado's relief corps, which has posted a 5.23 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (9*).

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Atlanta at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with the Sky on Tuesday as they welcome former teammate Angel Reese back to town as a member of the Dream. This will mark the first meeting between these two teams this season and I can't help but feel the oddsmakers have missed the mark. Atlanta does check in off a blowout win over Washington on Saturday (we won with the Dream in that 109-77 rout). Of note, Atlanta is just 2-3 ATS in five road games to date this season. Chicago has dropped the cash in an incredible seven straight games, going 1-6 SU over that stretch. The Sky did manage to win their most recent home games, albeit against the lowly Sun on June 5th. I don't think Chicago has played quite as poorly as its record indicates. The opposition has taken a volume-shooting approach against the Sky, getting off more than 70 field goal attempts in four straight and seven of their last eight contests. With that being said, I'm not convinced Atlanta will take the same approach here, perhaps to its own detriment. Note that the Dream have hoisted uπ 68 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight games. On the flip side, Atlanta has held six straight opponents to 67 or fewer field goal attempts with all six of those foes connecting on 43.9% or better and three knocking down more than 47% of its attempts. Take Chicago (10*).

Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over New York at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

The Knicks have full control of this series as the scene shifts to New York for Game 3 on Monday. The fact that the Spurs have dropped the cash in each of the first two games in this series is notable as they've lost three straight games ATS just once dating back to January 2nd, that coming during a three-game ATS slide in mid-January, and only three times all season. As I've noted previously in this series, the Knicks are into uncharted territory as they're riding a season-high 13-game winning streak, not to mention the fact that they've now matched their season-high with eight straight ATS victories. The only other time they rattled off eight consecutive ATS wins was from January 21st to February 4th before losing by 38 points in Detroit on February 6th. Bettors figure to back the Knicks in droves at this short number but we'll go the other way and call for the Spurs to get back in the series. Take San Antonio (10*).

My selection is on Washington plus the points over Indiana at 7 pm et on Monday.

Bettors continue to flock to the Fever, despite the fact that they're off to a disappointing 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS start to the season. While known for their offensive prowess, they've been held to 30 or fewer made field goals in six straight games. Washington figures to be in a foul mood after suffering an ugly 109-77 loss in Atlanta on Saturday (we won with the Dream in that game). The Mystics have alternated wins and losses over their last four games. The fact that this is a 'revenge' spot for Indiana has been factored into this line in my opinion. Of course 'revenge' is generally a dish best served at home and I expect that to hold true on Monday. Take Washington (8*).

My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Toronto at 3 pm et on Sunday.

This is undoubtedly a game the Sky have had circled on their calendar after dropping a 111-104 'upset' decision at home against the Tempo back on May 27th. Chicago enters this contest on a six-game ATS slide but I look for it to snap that skid here. Note that the Sky did like what they saw from the Tempo defense in that previous meeting as they got off a season-high 75 field goal attempts. It's not as if they shot poorly either, connecting on 48% of those attempts. The problem was the Tempo quite simply shot the lights out (37-of-66 from the field). I don't anticipate the Tempo replicating that performance here. While the Tempo do own the slightly better overall record in this matchup this season, the Sky have faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Take Chicago (8*).

Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Washington at 6 pm et on Saturday.

The knee-jerk reaction is probably to grab the generous helping of points with the Mystics on Saturday as they're fresh off a 90-72 dismantling of Chicago last time out while the Dream check in off a double-digit loss in Indiana two nights ago. We'll go the other way and lay the points with Atlanta, noting that it has yet to drop the cash in consecutive games this season while Washington has put together just one ATS winning streak, that coming in its first three games of the campaign back in early May. The Dream not only own the better overall record in this matchup this season but they've also faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Look for Atlanta to bounce back with a decisive victory at home. Take Atlanta (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Dallas at 10 pm et on Friday.

The Sparks have dropped consecutive games both SU and ATS including a lopsided defeat against the revenge-minded Aces on Tuesday. The shots simply haven't been falling for Los Angeles following a strong start to the campaign offensively. I'm confident we'll see the Sparks bounce back on Friday, however, as they host the Wings. Dallas checks in feeling good about itself off three straight victories both SU and ATS. That puts the Wings into uncharted territory as both streaks represent season-highs. We'll back the Sparks as an unpopular home underdog on Friday. Take Los Angeles (8*).

My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over New York at 8:30 pm et on Friday.

We'll lay the points with the Spurs as they look to answer back in Game 2 of this series on Friday. New York has to feel a sense of 'mission accomplished' as it rallied for a road victory to open this series on Wednesday. The Knicks are in uncharted territory riding a season-high 12-game winning streak and have delivered the cash in seven straight games - one game shy of their season-high in that regard. We'll back the Spurs off a loss noting that they've dropped the cash in consecutive games on just three different occasions dating all the way back to January 22nd. As I'll continue to point out, the straight-up winner has now gone an incredible 25-0 ATS in the Spurs last 25 contests. I certainly still expect this to be a long, hard-fought series, and with that in mind will gladly lay the points with the home side in this critical bounce-back spot. Take San Antonio (9*).

My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over New York at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday.

The Knicks enter this series in uncharted territory as they've won a season-high 11 straight games SU and are one ATS victory short of their season-high seven-game ATS winning streak. I do think the Spurs gain the upper hand in the opener of this series and it's worth noting that the SU winner has gone a perfect 24-0 ATS in San Antonio's last 24 contests. The Spurs of course check in off an 'upset' victory in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals in Oklahoma City. I often like to fade teams coming off such wins and in this case, San Antonio has reeled off consecutive victories, however, I feel this line is a little light. Note that the Spurs have put together four different ATS winning streaks lasting at least three games going back to March 23rd alone. They're a solid 19-10 ATS since that date. New York did have San Antonio's number during the regular season, taking two of three meetings SU and all three ATS. That's certainly been factored into this line and while I likely won't make a habit of laying points in this series, I do think it's the right move in Game 1. Take San Antonio (8*).

My selection is on Portland plus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

The Fire aren't your typical expansion team. They were quickly dismissed by casual bettors after their season-opening blowout loss against Chicago, noto to mention a 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS start. Since then, however, they've gone 4-1 SU and ATS including a 100-84 rout of a good Indiana team last time out. The case can be made for them catching the Valkyries in the wrong place at the wrong time as Golden State checks in off a double-digit defeat at home against Las Vegas on Sunday and has gone 2-0 SU and ATS after a loss this season. I simply feel the Valkyries are laying too many points in this spot, noting that the Fire have done a tremendous job of shortening proceedings, holding all 10 opponents to fewer than 70 field goal attempts this season and three of their last four foes to 24 or fewer made field goals. Golden State hoisted up 74 field goal attempts on Sunday but that was thanks to trying to chase down the Aces all afternoon long. That type of pace isn't really typical of this team. I think the potential is there for this to be a slower-paced affair, and that lends itself to a play on the underdog catching a generous number of points. Take Portland (8*).

Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Minnesota at 10 pm et on Monday.

The Lynx are rolling right now, riding a season-high four-game SU and ATS winning streak. They actually shot poorly (28-of-71 from the field) on Friday in Chicago but still won by 21 points as the Sky were far worse offensively (20-for-70). The Lynx continue to give up more scoring opportunities than you might like as they've allowed 70+ field goal attempts in five of eight games to date including three of their last four contests. The Mercury are reeling off five straight defeats both SU and ATS. They certainly had their opportunities on Friday but couldn't make good on enough to keep pace with the Liberty, dropping their second game in a row in New York. Phoenix has had the weekend to stew over that loss and its recent slide. This will be a 'revenge' spot for the Mercury after they dropped an 88-84 'upset' decision at home against the Lynx on May 12th. Keep in mind, Phoenix was playing its third game in four nights in three different cities in that spot. It actually got off 71 field goal attempts compared to Minnesota's 64 but the Lynx quite simply shot the lights out (50% from the field). The fact that game was close at all was telling in my opinion and I think Phoenix can get over the hump in this rematch. Take Phoenix (10*).

My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over San Antonio at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.

The Spurs rolled to a 118-91 victory on Thursday, forcing a seventh and deciding game here in Oklahoma City. I don't think we'll see San Antonio get over the hump on Saturday as it faces a tall task looking to hand the Thunder a second straight loss. Oklahoma City has lost consecutive games just once dating back to February 9th and that came at the tail-end of the regular season when it was resting players. And it's certainly worth noting that the straight-up winner has now covered the spread in an incredible 23 straight games involving the Spurs. The Thunder are playing with a larger margin for error right now as they've gotten off 91 or more field goal attempts in four of the first six games in this series. Of note, Oklahoma City has now held the opposition to 41 or fewer made field goals in 13 of 14 games in these playoffs. The only game it didn't, it still rolled to a 131-122 victory in a series-clinching win over the Suns. Take Oklahoma City (8*).

Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Pittsburgh -1.5 runs over Minnesota at 4:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Pirates dropped consecutive games against the Cubs prior to opening this series against the Twins. They got back on track with a come-from-behind walk-off victory last night and I think that gives them a boost heading into Saturday's contest. We'll see a matchup between two veteran right-handed starters in Bailey Ober for the Twins and Mitch Keller for the Pirates. Minnesota has won Ober's last three starts but he has labored through his last two, allowing seven earned runs on 13 hits in just 10 innings of work. He's had some good fortune this season with the hits simply not falling in at the same rate we're accustomed to seeing and that's helped keep his WHIP at a solid 1.10. However, his 4.48 FIP tells a different story. Ober draws a tough matchup here as the Pirates rank top-10 in the majors in xwOBA over the last week and fifth in wOBA against right-handed pitching. Behind Ober is a Twins bullpen that has struggled to the tune of a 4.80 ERA and 1.51 WHIP this season with those numbers rising to 5.13 and 1.59 on the road. Keller had a couple of rough outings earlier this month but snapped back last time out, allowing just one earned run on four hits over six innings in a 4-1 win over a surging Blue Jays team. This has been a renaissance year of sorts for Keller so far as he has posted what would be a career-best 3.47 FIP and 1.07 WHIP through 11 outings, logging a 5-2 record along the way. Like the Twins 'pen, the Pirates relief corps has struggled but does check in sporting a 3.24 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with a pair of saves converted and none blown over the last week. While the Buccos won by a single run last night, their previous nine victories all came by at least two runs. We'll lay the extra run as the potential is there for a generous return on Saturday. Take Pittsburgh -1.5 runs (10*).

Game of the Week. My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Carolina at 8 pm et on Friday.

We're getting a fairly generous price to back the Canadiens with an insurance goal as they face elimination in Game 5 of this series on Friday. Montreal has of course dropped the last three games after grabbing a 1-0 series lead with a decisive 6-2 win in the opener last week. Of note, the Canadiens have lost more than three games in a row just once previously this season, that coming during a five-game slide back in November. The Hurricanes have posted just one winning streak longer than three games going back to March 2nd. While the Canadiens are unlikely to rally to win this series, I don't expect them to simply wave the white flag after Wednesday's lopsided defeat. Note that Montreal is 31-20 on the road this season, having outscored the opposition by an average margin of 0.5 goals. Take Montreal +1.5 goals (10*).

My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Las Vegas at 8 pm et on Thursday.

I think the case can be made for these two teams being mirror images of one another in some sense so far this season. Their records are almost identical but the Wings have actually faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. I like the consistency Dallas has shown at both ends of the floor. It checks in having knocked down 28 or more field goals in all seven games and 30+ in five of those contests. The Wings figure to be afforded their share of scoring opportunities in this one as Las Vegas has yielded 70+ field goal attempts to the opposition in five of six games to date, only holding its most recent opponent, Los Angeles, to below that number win in a game where the Sparks shot the lights out (37-of-67 from the field). The Aces have been rolling offensively, making good on 43, 39, 35, 31 and 34 field goals over their last five games but still enter this contest on a three-game ATS losing streak. Note that Dallas has done a terrific job of limiting its opponents scoring opportunities, allowing fewer than 70 field goal attempts in five of seven games to date. Take Dallas (8*).

My selection is on Washington minus the points over Seattle at 10 pm et on Wednesday.

Seattle rolled to a 97-85 win over Washington in the front half of this two-game set on Sunday but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the Mystics in Wednesday's rematch. Washington has of course had a couple of days to stew over that result - its second straight loss both SU and ATS following an encouraging 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS start to the campaign. I do think the Mystics are the better team in this matchup and we're able to back them at a discount here following Sunday's stunning result. The Storm have won back-to-back games both SU and ATS but that marks their first such streaks of the season. They're still just 3-4 SU on the campaign. Of note, the Storm play with a rather small margin for error as they've gotten off 63 or fewer field goal attempts in six of seven games to date. They've strung together consecutive strong defensive efforts but have still allowed four of seven opponents to make good on 30+ field goals this season. Take Washington (9*).

My selection is on Connecticut plus the points over Portland at 10 pm et on Wednesday.

Portland is coming off consecutive 'upset' wins in Toronto and New York while Connecticut has been blown out in back-to-back games against Seattle and Golden State so it's not surprising that the expansion Fire are receiving plenty of support in the betting markets leading up to this game. I can't help but feel Portland is out a little ahead of its skis as a considerable favorite in this matchup, however. The Sun are 1-7 on the season but have faced a considerably more difficult schedule than the Fire by most metrics. Porland has thrived offensively over its last two games but it has been afforded a ton of scoring opportunities over that stretch. In an obvious letdown spot returning home off that successful road trip and facing a slow-paced Connecticut squad that has held five of eight opponents to 63 or fewer field goal attempts this season, I think this has the potential to be another 'down-to-the-wire' affair, much like we saw in the first meeting this season, a game Portland won by a single point here at home on May 18th. Take Connecticut (8*).

My selection is on Colorado +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll take a flyer on the Rockies with an insurance run on Tuesday as they look to get back at the Dodgers after dropping the opener of this series 5-3 last night. This game will feature a battle of left-handed starting pitchers with Kyle Freeland going for Colorado and Eric Lauer making his first start for the Dodgers since joining them by way of the Blue Jays. Freeland has not gotten off to a positive start this season but it's not really anything out of the ordinary. We know what we're going to get from Freeland at this stage of his career. While he does get hit hard often, he's also capable of rising the occasion when you least expect it. On a positive note this year, his strikeout numbers are up considerably - the highest of his career to date at 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings. While Colorado is just 2-7 in his nine starts overall, it has gone 4-5 when factoring in the +1.5 run-line. Lauer wasn't happy with his role on the Blue Jays in the early going this season and as a result they cut ties with the veteran left-hander. After enjoying a renaissance season a year ago, he has settled back in as a very hittable southpaw, logging a 6.90 FIP and 1.49 WHIP through eight appearances this season. Note that current Rockies hitters have had some success against him, going a collective 8-for-24 (.333) with a .777 OPS. The bullpen matchup may not be quite as decisive in Los Angeles' favor as you might think. The Dodgers have four different relievers that have made multiple appearances and thrown at least 27 pitches over the last three days. Colorado's 'pen has been better than expected this year, even if that's not saying much, logging a 4.35 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with 13 saves converted and seven blown. The Rockies certainly won't attract much attention from bettors in this spot, but that's just fine with us as we're being offered a generous price to back them with an insurance run. Take Colorado +1.5 runs (8*).

Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Oklahoma City at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday.

The knee-jerk reaction is understandably to lay the points with the Thunder as they return home for Game 5 of this series following a blowout loss in San Antonio on Sunday. I'm going to go the other way, however, and grab all the points I can get with the Spurs. Incredibly, the straight-up winner has now covered the spread in 21 straight games involving San Antonio. That's its longest such streak of the season by far (its previous longest lasted only 12 games). While I do think the Spurs have a shot at winning this game outright, at the very least I'm confident they can take it down to the wire. The fact that the Spurs won and covered on Sunday is notable as ATS wins have had a tendency to come in bunches for them. They've put together five different ATS winning streaks dating back to March 23rd including three in these playoffs. Meanwhile, the Thunder have endured four different ATS losing streaks dating back to February 27th, going 15-19 ATS in their last 34 contests. While the Thunder are undoubtedly an elite team and 'should' bounce back here, I simply feel they're laying too many points. Take San Antonio (10*).

My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Sunday.

I think a lot of bettors got ahead of themselves backing the Spurs in Game 3 of this series on Friday - of course I say that with the benefit of hindsight. I was close to backing San Antonio but ultimately laid off hoping for this exact scenario to play out with the Thunder grabbing the 2-1 series lead heading into Game 4 on Sunday. It was an off shooting night for the Spurs - their second in a row, in fact. That will happen when you're facing an elite defensive team like the Thunder. I do expect San Antonio to make the necessary adjustments and even this series up at two games apiece on Sunday. Oklahoma City has delivered the cash in consecutive games and that's notable as it has strung together a three-game (or more) ATS winning streak just twice dating back to February 27th. San Antonio has suffered just one ATS skid lasting at least three games since January 2nd. The Thunder are suddenly dealing with multiple injuries after Jalen Williams missed Friday's game and Ajay Mitchell was forced to leave early. Both of their statuses are up in the air for Sunday. Regardless who plays and who doesn't, I like the Spurs in what amounts to a virtual 'must-win' situation at home. Take San Antonio (8*).

My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Atlanta at 3 pm et on Sunday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with the Mercury on Sunday as they look to snap their two-game slide as they open their three-game road trip in Atlanta. Phoenix is off to a 2-4 SU and ATS start to the season. It's certainly worth noting that the Mercury have faced a difficult schedule, going up against the Aces, Valkyries, Lynx, Sky, Tempo and Sparks. Even the Tempo have been a 'tough out' in the early going this season. While the Dream are a quality team as well, I do think the Mercury can hang in this matchup. Atlanta is just one day removed from an 86-69 rout of Dallas, marking its third straight ATS victory. I do think Phoenix will be afforded its share of opportunities in this matchup, noting that Atlanta has allowed its first four opponents to hoist up 70, 73, 73 and 74 field goal attempts. Despite the lopsided end result on Friday, the Dream were forced to give their starters plenty of run with all five playing 30+ minutes. I do think the rest advantage does factor in here and it favors the visiting Mercury. Take Phoenix (8*).

Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Houston at 2:20 pm et on Sunday.

The Cubs have now lost seven straight and 11 of their last 13 games overall but I like their chances of breaking out of their slump and avoiding the series sweep in convincing fashion against the Astros on Sunday. Of note, Houston still ranks 29th in the majors in xwOBA over the last week so it's not as if it has been rolling lately either. The Astros will be facing Cubs starter Shota Imanaga on Sunday. The left-hander is coming off his worst start of the season but I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here. He still owns a solid 3.38 FIP and 1.04 WHIP in 10 starts this season. Current Astros hitters have just six collective at-bats against him and they've gone 0-for-6 with three strikeouts. Peter Lambert will counter for Houston. It's been an up-and-down campaign for him so far, which is about par for the course. While current Cubs hitters haven't seen a lot of Lambert, what they have seen, they've liked, going 7-for-11 with a pair of home runs and a 1.947 OPS. Lambert has struggled wherever he has pitched for the most part during his five-year big league career, but owns a higher WHIP and lower strikeout-to-walk ratio on the road, as expected. The bullpen matchup favors the Cubs more than you might think. Chicago's 'pen has been among the best in baseball by a lot of metrics this season and checks in sporting a 2.81 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over the last week. Most of its high-leverage arms are rested and good to go for this series finale. The same can't be said for the Astros overworked 'pen. It owns a 5.52 ERA and 1.55 WHIP this season with those numbers rising to 5.90 and 1.60 on the road. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (10*).

Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on New York plus the points over Cleveland at 8 pm et on Saturday. 

We've won with the Knicks in each of the first two games in this series and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Game 3 on Saturday. While the scene does shift to Cleveland for this contest, it hasn't really mattered all that much where the Cavaliers have played, they've been a bad bet going back to the latter stages of February (16-26 ATS over their last 42 games). While Cleveland has dropped the cash in consecutive games and we often look to go for streak reversals, it's worth noting that it has suffered four different ATS losing streaks lasting at least three games going back to March 8th. On the flip side, the Knicks have now reeled off four straight ATS wins. They have delivered five different ATS winning streaks lasting at least five contests this season so it's not as if they're entering uncharted territory. I don't know that there's a lot different the Cavs can do to turn the tide in this series. New York is brimming with confidence right now and has Cleveland beat on depth alone. The Knicks have now held an incredible 17 of their last 18 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Take New York (10*).

My selection is on Portland plus the points over Toronto at 6 pm et on Saturday.

There's a lot of early season buzz around the expansion Tempo as they've gotten off to an encouraging 3-3 start, recently reeling off four straight ATS victories - a streak that ended on Thursday in Minnesota. I don't like the spot for Toronto here, however, as it returns home on just one day of rest following a four-game western road trip. Of course, Portland is the league's other expansion team as this will be the first-ever meeting between these expansion cousins. The Fire are 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS to start their inaugural campaign. They check in off a lopsided defeat in their first road game in Indiana on Wednesday. The Fire have faced a pretty tough schedule so far, going up against the Sky, Liberty (twice), Sun and Fever. Only the matchup with the Sun was what you would call favorable and Portland won that game. Both of these teams have played relatively slow and I think that favors the underdog Fire in this matchup. Portland has held all five of its opponents to fewer than 70 field goal attempts. Toronto has yielded 64, 58, 58, 64, 70 and 69 field goal attempts through its first six contests. Take Portland (8*).

Playoff Game of the Year. My selection is on Colorado -1.5 goals over Vegas at 8 pm et on Friday.

The Golden Knights stunned the Avalanche in Game 1 of this series on Thursday with Cale Makar's absence certainly playing a major factor. Makar might not be back for Friday's game, but I still like the Avs chances of rebounding and evening up this series at a game apiece, in convincing fashion. Colorado is still 31-16 on home ice this season, where it has outscored the opposition by an average margin of 1.2 goals. It's not as if it hasn't been accustomed to playing without Makar as he did miss time down the stretch. Of note, Colorado has now dropped the cash on the puck-line in consecutive games. It has lost three games or more against the puck-line just twice dating all the way back to December 11th and on just four occasions all season. The Avs are 6-0 in their last six games following a loss with five of those victories coming by at least two goals. The Knights have to feel satisfied after accomplishing their goal of earning at least a split in the first two games in Denver. Noting that they're just a .500 team on the road this season, we'll look for them to fall short in their effort to stage a second straight 'upset' on Friday. Take Colorado -1.5 goals (10*).

My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Atlanta at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

We won fading Dallas in the first meeting between these two teams back on May 12th as Atlanta went on the road and delivered a 77-72 victory. That was a tough spot for the Wings as they were playing their home opener after staging an 'upset' victory in Indiana to open the season. Here, Dallas enters off consecutive wins and covers against Washington and Chicago. I like the Wings chances of keeping it rolling in this 'revenge' spot. Atlanta has played only three games so far this season, to mixed results. Not surprisingly, the Dream's offense has struggled to get going, connecting on just 31, 26 and 27 field goals through three contests. It was fortunate that Dallas had an off shooting night in the first meeting (28-of-73 from the field). I question whether the Dream can keep pace here, let alone cover the pointspread. The Wings enter this game having made good on 39, 28, 31, 33 and 36 field goals through five contests this season. Take Dallas (8*).

Eastern Conference Final Game of the Year. My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Carolina at 8 pm et on Thursday.

Bettors are almost certainly going to be looking to fade the Canadiens just two days removed from their thrilling Game 7 overtime win in Buffalo. Despite sweeping the regular season series, Montreal is a considerable underdog both in Game 1 and this series against Carolina. We'll gladly grab the insurance goal with the Habs here as the Hurricanes are already well into uncharted territory riding a season-high nine-game winning streak (their previous longest winning streak lasted only five games). Of note, the Canadiens check in sporting a 30-19 road record this season, where they've outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.5 goals. The Canes have breezed through the first two rounds of these playoffs but it's the Conference Final round that has tripped them up in recent years. I can't help but feel the pressure is squarely on Carolina's shoulders entering Game 1 on Thursday as a loss would certainly lead to plenty of 'here we go again' talk in Raleigh. The young Habs are playing with 'house money' at this point as few expected them to win a round let alone two. Look for Montreal to at the very least take this game down to the wire. Take Montreal +1.5 goals (10*).

My selection is on New York minus the points over Cleveland at 8 pm et on Thursday.

New York really had no business winning Game 1 let alone covering the spread after it trailed big in the fourth quarter. The Cavaliers confidence has to be rattled following that outcome as it was undoubtedly their best chance to steal a game here in New York. While the Cavs now check in off an ATS loss, it's worth noting that they've suffered seven different ATS losing streaks dating back to February 20th. In other words, ATS defeats tend to come in bunches. Meanwhile, the Knicks are coming off three straight ATS victories. They've posted four different ATS winning streaks lasting four games or more since January 21st and two going back only to April 3rd. All told, they're 13-3 ATS over their last 16 games. As expected, we're working with a lower pointspread in Game 2 as the zig-zag theory still holds a lot of weight with many bettors. I can't help but feel this is a mismatch, however, and look for the Knicks to shake off that sluggish performance as a whole in Game 1 and respond with a more complete effort on Thursday. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on Golden State plus the points over New York at 8 pm et on Thursday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with the Valkyries on Thursday as they head to New York to challenge the Liberty. In an odd early season scheduling quirk, both of these teams have been off for the last week or so. Golden State has had eight days to stew over a 69-63 'upset' loss against Chicago. Meanwhile, New York checks in off a blowout win in Portland after losing in a stunner against the expansion Fire two nights earlier. It's been a rather uneven start for the Liberty as they're just 2-2 ATS and have struggled defensively. I don't think there's any question Golden State is the better defensive team in this matchup. The Valkyries are built around their ability to stymie opposing offenses and that's certainly been the case so far this season as they've held their first three opponents to 26, 26 and 25 made field goals. That makes grabbing so many points in this matchup enticing, especially when you consider New York hasn't been playing all that fast, hoisting up fewer than 70 field goal attempts in all four games to date. The underdog Valkyries would certainly be on board for a slower-paced affair here as that gives them their best shot at stealing a win in New York. Take Golden State (8*).

My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Toronto at 8 pm et on Thursday.

We knew heading into the season that the Tempo wouldn't be your run-of-the-mill expansion team. Their roster is comprised of enough veteran talent to actually make a push for the postseason in their inaugural campaign. Few could have predicted things to come together so quickly, however. The Tempo enter Thursday's game in Minnesota off to a 3-2 start and fresh off four straight ATS victories. I do think their streak ends here, though, as they catch the Lynx in the wrong place at the wrong time. Minnesota figures to be in a foul mood off an 'upset' loss against the Sky on Sunday. That defeat snapped the Lynx's two-game SU and three-game ATS winning streaks. Toronto got off a season-high 74 field goal attempts in its 'upset' win in Phoenix on Tuesday. I don't think it will find the going as easy against a Minnesota team that has clamped down over its last couple of games, holding the Wings and Sky to an identical 67 field goal attempts. Minnesota has been quietly effective offensively, knocking down 35, 32, 35 and 32 field goals through its first four games and catches Toronto wrapping up a four-game western road trip. Take Minnesota (8*).

Playoff Game of the Year. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over San Antonio at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday.

The Spurs took Game 1 of this series in 'upset' fashion in double-overtime so the pressure is now on the Thunder to rebound in Game 2 as they look to avoid an 0-2 hole before heading to San Antonio for Game 3. Of note, the straight-up winner has now covered the spread in 18 straight games involving the Spurs. I'm confident we'll see Oklahoma City bounce back on Wednesday. The Thunder got off to a very slow start in Game 1 and were ultimately chasing the game most of the way. You simply can't get caught in that type of scenario against a team as good, and confident, as the Spurs. San Antonio has now reeled off three straight wins both SU and ATS and that's notable as it has posted more than three wins in a row ATS just once previously this season, that coming during a seven-game ATS winning streak back in February. The Thunder have dropped the cash in back-to-back games. They've lost more than two games in a row ATS only once since February 1st and three times since the start of December. San Antonio has certainly had Oklahoma City's number this season but the Thunder's lone victory over the Spurs did come in lopsided fashion, by 21 points here at home back on January 13th. For San Antonio, there has to be a feeling of accomplishment after earning at least a split here in Oklahoma City. I expect to see a strong response from the Thunder on Wednesday. Take Oklahoma City (10*).

My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Portland at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

The expansion Fire are off to a solid 2-2 start to the season after holding off Connecticut by a single point on Monday. Portland really had no business winning that game as it connected on just 28-of-62 field goal attempts while Connecticut knocked down 32-of-63. The Fire's two victories have come in fortuitous fashion as they continue to struggle defensively. They've allowed each of their first four opponents to connect on at least 32 field goals, despite holding all four of those foes to fewer than 70 field goal attempts. That spells trouble as they begin their first road trip of the season in Indiana on Wednesday. The Fever are off to a disappointing 2-2 start but it has had little to do with their offense. They've made good on 40, 31, 36 and 31 field goals through four games and figure to feast on the Fire's matador-like defense. Note that Indiana's own defense is coming off its best effort of the season, limiting Seattle to just 25-of-71 from the field on Saturday. With that being said, the Fever have dropped the cash in consecutive games - a streak I look for them to halt on Wednesday. Take Indiana (8*).

My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Toronto at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

The expansion Tempo and Mercury own identical 2-2 records entering Tuesday's matchup in Phoenix. Not all records are created equally, however. Toronto has faced a manageable early season slate with games against the Mystics, Storm and Sparks (two). Meanwhile, Phoenix has faced an incredibly difficult schedule, going up against the Aces, Valkyries, Lynx and Sky. I've been encouraged by the way the Mercury have limited their opponents' scoring opportunities, allowing 71, 67, 64 and 68 field goal attempts through four games. Phoenix's offense has yet to really get going but I see this as a potential breakout spot. Toronto has to feel satisfied after securing a double-digit win in Los Angeles on Sunday - avenging a 99-95 loss suffered two nights earlier. The Tempo have now reeled off three straight ATS wins. I do think there's trouble brewing, however, as their defensive play has regressed, allowing 25, 27, 37 and 33 made field goals over the course of their first four games. While they may be able to stick around for a while in this game, I think the Mercury's talent edge ultimately wins out as they pull away for a convincing win. Take Phoenix (8*).

My selection is on San Diego +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Padres stayed red hot, taking the opener of this series 1-0 last night. We'll grab the insurance run with San Diego on Tuesday as it looks to move past the mighty Dodgers in the N.L. West standings with a victory in Game 2. Emmet Sheehan will take the ball for Los Angeles. He's off to a mediocre start to the season but it's his career home-away splits that are most concerning. In 20 appearances (18 starts) at Dodger Stadium, Sheehan has posted a 2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP with a 3.8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In 16 road outings he has logged a 5.75 ERA and 1.42 WHIP with a 2.8 K:BB ratio. He does own solid numbers against current Padres hitters but we're talking about a very small sample size (15 collective at-bats). No current Padre has seen Sheehan more than twice. Griffin Canning will counter for San Diego. His reputation as a back-of-the-rotation starter precedes him and his numbers through three outings this season are poor to say the last. With that being said, he did turn in his best effort of the campaign last time out as he held the White Sox to one earned run over five economical innings (73 pitches - 42 for strikes). Canning has actually held up well against current Dodgers hitters, holding them to 22-for-91 (.242) with a .770 OPS. He has limited Shohei Ohtani to just one single in seven at-bats. The bullpens are a virtual wash in this matchup. The Dodgers 'pen is a little more rested right now but the Padres have the depth to contend in the later innings on Tuesday. Take San Diego +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on New York minus the points over Cleveland at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

We won with the Cavaliers in their Game 7 'upset' victory in Detroit on Sunday but I won't hesitate to go the other way and fade them on Tuesday as they head to New York to open the Eastern Conference Finals. The fact that Cleveland is coming off an ATS victory is notable as it has strung together just three ATS winning streaks dating back to February 20th. On the flip side, the Knicks check in off back-to-back ATS wins and have now recorded four ATS winning streaks since February 27th with the previous three all lasting at least four contests. Look for New York to roll in Game 1 at Madison Square Garden. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over San Antonio at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

It's been years since we've seen an NBA playoff series as anticipated as this one as what is effectively the NBA Finals begins between the Spurs and Thunder on Monday night in Oklahoma City. While this does promise to be a long, hard-fought series, I look for the favored Thunder to gain the upper hand in Game 1. Oklahoma City enters this contest off an ATS loss and that's notable as it has dropped the cash in consecutive games just twice dating back to March 15th with both of those ATS skids lasting only two games. Despite being firmly planted on most bettors' radar, the Thunder have gone 9-5 ATS over their last 14 games. The Spurs are coming off consecutive ATS victories. They've won more than two games in a row ATS just three times since February 21st. So for as good as they've been, extended ATS success hasn't been commonplace. It's also worth noting that the straight-up winner has also covered the spread in 17 straight games involving San Antonio. Of course, the possibility exists that San Antonio steals the series-opener, but I'm more confident backing Oklahoma City at home, where it owns a 38-7 SU record this season. Take Oklahoma City (8*).

Game of the Week. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Detroit at 8 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the Pistons in Game 6 of this series on Friday but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the Cavaliers in an underdog role on Sunday. Note that Cleveland has suffered consecutive losses just twice dating back to March 1st. Friday's setback only served to end its three-game SU and ATS winning streak. The Pistons on the other hand have only put together one winning streak in these playoffs - that lasting five games from Game 5 of their opening round series against Orlando to Game 2 of this series against Cleveland. They're just 6-7 ATS so far in these playoffs. Of course, the Cavs do own an identical ATS mark in the postseason but they're not the ones laying a handful of points on Sunday. I simply feel this line is an overreaction to the lopsided result on Friday. The Cavs would have been right there in that contest were it not for a poor shooting performance. In stark contrast, the Pistons shot the lights out - an effort I don't see them repeating on Sunday. Take Cleveland (10*).

My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Minnesota at 7 pm et on Sunday.

We'll grab the points with the Sky on Sunday as they look to bounce back following their first loss of the season suffered on Friday in Phoenix. I'm fairly high on Chicago this season as it looks to return to prominence with a new-look roster this season. The Lynx are perennial contenders but I feel they're in for a step back this year. Early returns have been reasonably positive, however, as they check in 2-1 to open the campaign. We'll fade Minnesota here as it comes off an 'upset' win in Dallas on Thursday. I don't think there's a lot separating these two teams at all and fully expect the Sky to at the very least take the Lynx down to the wire on Sunday. Take Chicago (8*).

My selection is on Connecticut plus the points over Las Vegas at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with the underdog Sun on Friday as they look to rebound following Wednesday's lopsided loss in the front half of this two-game set against the Aces. Las Vegas has quite simply shot the lights out during its current two-game winning streak. The Aces knocked down 39-of-72 (54.2%) of their field goal attempts in Wednesday's victory. It was the perfect storm of sorts as Connecticut shot a woeful 23-of-70 in that contest - its worst performance of the young season. The Aces do continue to give up their share of scoring opportunities. They've yielded 77, 78 and 70 field goal attempts to the opposition in their first three games. Meanwhile, the Sun are somewhat limited personnel-wise as they prepare to move to Houston next season, but they have hoisted uπ 83, 73 and 70 field goal attempts through three games and I think they can make better use of their opportunities in this quick rematch on Friday. Take Connecticut (8*).

My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Cleveland at 7 pm et on Friday.

We'll grab the points with the Pistons on Friday as they look to keep their series hopes alive in Game 6 in Cleveland. Detroit has now lost three straight games both SU and ATS with the most recent setback coming by way of overtime on Wednesday. Of note, the Pistons have lost more than three games in a row ATS just once dating back to December 12th and only twice all season. On the flip side, Cleveland is entering uncharted territory as it has yet to deliver four straight ATS victories this season. Look for Detroit to take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take Detroit (8*).

My selection is on Chicago +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 7:15 pm et on Thursday.

The Cubs are reeling right now as they've lost four straight games but it's not the time to panic as they're still 27-16 on the season. I like their chances of taking the Braves down to the wire at the very least on Thursday. Ben Brown will get the start for Chicago. This will be just his second start of the season as he's been used effectively out of the bullpen. His other start came last week as he held the Rangers scoreless over four innings, needing only 46 pitches to get through that outing. On the season, Browns owns a 2.63 FIP and 0.91 WHIP in 29 2/3 innings of work. He'll face a Braves lineup that has cooled off a little, ranking just outside the top-10 in the majors in xwOBA over the last week. While Chicago's bullpen hasn't always been steady this season, it does figure to have all hands on deck after using just one reliever in last night's game. It's a different story for the Braves as their 'pen has been a little overworked lately and this isn't a deep relief corps to begin with. Chris Sale will be tasked with keeping the Cubs bats in check and while they've been slumping in this series, it's worth noting that they rank best in baseball in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Current Cubs hitters are just 12-for-50 (.240) with a .765 OPS against Sale but only one of them has seen him more than four times and that's Alex Bregman, who has homered twice in 24 career at-bats against the veteran lefty. Take Chicago +1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. West Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over San Francisco at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

This situation sets up nicely as a bounce-back spot for the Dodgers as they come in reeling off four straight losses. Despite the skid, including losses in the first two games of this series, they still sit six games ahead of the Giants in the N.L. West. It's by no means time to panic in Los Angeles. The Dodgers will hand the ball to Shohei Ohtani on Wednesday. His pitching has certainly out-paced his hitting so far this season. Last time out he needed fewer than 90 pitches to get through seven innings in a tough loss against the Astros. He's an early N.L. Cy Young contender having logged a 2.52 FIP and 0.81 WHIP through six starts. Current Giants hitters have done little against Ohtani, going a combined 14-for-73 (.192) with a .525 OPS. Of note, Matt Chapman has homered off of him twice (he's the only Giant to register a home run off of Ohtani) but he's mired in a season-long slump with just one dinger to date this season. The Giants rank 28th in the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Robbie Ray will counter for San Francisco. He's gotten off to a fine start but has faced an incredibly weak slate of opponents. Needless to say he'll be taking a step up in class on Wednesday. While the Dodgers have been slumping, they still rank in the top half of the majors in xwOBA over the last week and top-six in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Current Dodgers hitters have gone 38-for-137 (.277) with a healthy .957 OPS against Ray. Of note, seven different Dodgers have homered off him, to the tune of 11 combined long balls. The Dodgers bullpen is in better shape than the Giants' right now. San Francisco is in danger of being without up to four different relievers on Wednesday due to recent workloads. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Seattle at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

A bit of a tough early season schedule spot for Seattle as it has gone all over the map in the first week of the season and checks in off a win and cover at Connecticut on Sunday. The Tempo dropped their inaugural game by a 68-65 score against Washington on Friday. The Mystics have the potential to be much-improved this year, as they showed giving the Liberty all they could handle in their second game as well. I look for Toronto to get its first victory out of the way here before it opens a tough four-game western road trip on Friday in Los Angeles. The Tempo were right there against the Mystics despite shooting am miserable 17-of-63 (27%) from the field. Seattle has put up 80 and 89 points through two games but connected on only 53-of-124 (42.7%) of its field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Storm certainly gave up their share of scoring opportunities with the Valkyries and Sun hoisting up 74 and 73 field goal attempts, respectively. Look for the Tempo to take advantage. Take Toronto (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Dallas at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

The Wings are coming off a stunning 'upset' win over Caitlin Clark and the Fever on Saturday in Indiana. Optimism is high in Dallas this season as the Wings have a good mix of experience and youthful talent, led by sophomore Paige Bueckers. I do still think there are going to be bumps in the road for this Wings squad, however, and they draw a tough home-opener against Atlanta on Tuesday. The Dream won but failed to cover in their season-opener in Minnesota. Atlanta had to grind out that victory as it couldn't find its shooting legs, connecting on just 31-of-73 (42.5%) of its field goal attempts. I do think it can get on track offensively here, noting that Dallas played matador-like defense in its opener, allowing Indiana to connect on a whopping 40-of-77 (51.9%) field goal attempts. The Wings quite simply shot the lights out themselves in that game as they actually spotted the Fever 11 more field goal attempts, but won on the strength of a blistering 59.1% shooting effort. Look for regression from Dallas on Tuesday. Take Atlanta (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over New York at 3:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Knicks pushed the 76ers to the brink of elimination with Friday's win in Philadelphia. New York has now won six straight games, going 5-1 ATS over that stretch. We'll fade the Knicks on Sunday, however, as I do think the Sixers will show some fight in this elimination game at home. For as good as the Knicks have been playing, they actually have posted just two ATS winning streaks dating back to March 8th. Of course, both of those streaks were extended ones but it's worth noting nonetheless. On the flip side, the Sixers have endured just one ATS losing skid since March 15th, that coming during a four-game ATS slide near the end of the regular season. In these playoffs, they've gone a perfect 3-0 ATS when coming off an ATS defeat. Not only that but they've lost more than three games in a row SU just once all season. We'll back them off Friday's 'upset' loss here at home. Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Oklahoma City at 8:30 pm et on Saturday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with the Lakers on Saturday as they return home and look to turn the tide in this series down 2-0. The Thunder have delivered the cash in each of the first two games in this series and that's notable as for as good as they've been, they've actually won more than two games in a row ATS just once since February 27th, that coming during a four-game ATS winning streak in early April. Meanwhile, the Lakers have lost more than two games in a row ATS only three times dating back to January 13th. They've lost more than consecutive games SU just twice going back to that date. This isn't a 'must-win' for the Lakers but it's close as they're obviously not going to rally back from a 3-0 deficit against a team as good as the Thunder (even a 2-0 hole is probably insurmountable but we're not asking them to win outright only to cover the spread in this spot). Take Los Angeles (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia +1.5 goals over Carolina at 6 pm et on Saturday.

The Hurricanes are clearly in uncharted territory as they ride an eight-game winning streak into Saturday's potential series-clinching game in Philadelphia. Carolina's previous season-high winning streak lasted only five games - a streak they reached on three different occasions during the regular season. The Flyers on the other hand have lost three games in a row and that's worth noting as they've dropped four or more straight games only twice previously this season and not since January. While it's highly unlikely the Flyers are going to make a series of this I do think we'll see them leave it all on the ice and at the very least take the Canes down to the wire at home on Saturday. Take Philadelphia +1.5 goals (8*).

My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Las Vegas at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We've seen a changing of the guard of sorts in recent years for the Mercury and I think they're going to be a competitive team again here in 2026. Meanwhile, the Aces carry a certain reputation as one of the league's elite teams and have compiled a roster dotted with All-Star talent as they look to return to prominence this season. I simply feel it's going to take a bit of time for everything to come together for Las Vegas, and perhaps for Phoenix as well. With that in mind, I think the Aces are laying too many points in their home-opener on Saturday. The Mercury had a promising preseason, winning both of their games and displaying their offensive potential. Meanwhile, the Aces did give their regulars plenty of run in their lone contest against WNBA opposition, and got blown out on the road against an up-and-coming Wings squad. Take Phoenix (8*).

My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Detroit at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Nothing went right for the Cavaliers in Game 2 of this series yet they were still in the running to steal that game until the final minutes. We'll fade the Pistons here as they hit the road with a 2-0 series lead. Note that Detroit has now won five games in a row SU and four straight ATS. The Pistons have posted just one ATS winning streak lasting more than four games going all the way back to November 24th. Meanwhile, the Cavs have seen the SU winner go 12-1 ATS over their last 13 games with the lone exception coming in a five-point win over the Raptors on April 29th. Of note, Cleveland has lost more than two games in a row just once dating back to December 1st. We'll confidently lay the points with the Cavs in this virtual must-win affair. Take Cleveland (8*).

My selection is on New York minus the points over Connecticut at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

The Liberty were very disappointing from an ATS perspective last season as they got off to a slow start for their backers and ended up being overvalued for much of the campaign. I think we'll see a different story unfold in 2026. New York is still firmly entrenched as one of the league's elite teams and it draws a smash spot in its home opener on Friday. Connecticut might have one of the weakest WNBA rosters we've seen in recent years with a number of roster spots essentially taken up by veteran place-holders before the team moves to Houston for a fresh start next season. It's not often we see a true 'lame-duck' team in professional sports but that's essentially the case with the Sun this year. We've actually seen money flood in in support of the Sun in advance of this contest, pushing the line down a couple of points in our favor. We'll gladly take advantage and back the Liberty at home. Take New York (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Oklahoma City at 9:30 pm et on Thursday.

The Thunder delivered the win and the cash in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday, cruising to a 108-90 victory. I do expect to see the Lakers answer back in Game 2 on Thursday. While Oklahoma City is an elite team and certainly worthy of the championship favorite at this point, the betting public is well aware of that fact. The Thunder have actually delivered consecutive ATS wins just once going back to February 27th, that coming during a four-game ATS winning streak in early April. Meanwhile, the Lakers have suffered consecutive losses only twice since February 28th - a three-game skid in the first week of April and back-to-back losses in Games 4 and 5 against Houston last round. Of course, we're not asking for an outright victory here, only for the Lakers to hang tough for four quarters and I think we'll see them do just that. Take Los Angeles (8*).

Central Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Detroit at 7 pm et on Thursday.

The Cavaliers fell short in the opener of this series on Tuesday as they were essentially chasing that game from the opening tipoff. I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday as they look to even this series at one game apiece in Detroit. Of note, the Cavs have lost consecutive games just once since March 1st and only twice going all the way back to December 29th. Meanwhile, the Pistons have now won four games in a row and that's notable as they've won more than four straight contests just once since November 26th. As good as Detroit has been this season, it hasn't exactly been a pointspread darling since getting off to a hot start to the season from that perspective. The Pistons enter Game 2 on a three-game ATS winning streak but they've delivered the cash in more than three straight games only twice going all the way back to November 24th. The Cavs have shown they can win here, splitting two regular season meetings on this floor including a 21-point rout and a three-point overtime defeat (in a game where they were missing a number of key contributors and +8.5-point underdogs as a result). Take Cleveland (10*).

Western Conference Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Minnesota at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday.

We're being given a shorter pointspread to work with in Game 2 of this series after the Timberwolves staged an 'upset' victory in Game 1. San Antonio had an off shooting night on Monday, marking just the second time in its last 18 games that it was held to fewer than 40 made field goals. I'm confident we'll see the Spurs bounce back on Wednesday. Note that the T'Wolves have now delivered the cash in consecutive games. They have just one ATS winning streak lasting more than two games to their credit since February 2nd. Also of note, the straight-up winner has gone an incredible 26-1 ATS in Minnesota's last 27 games, so if we think the Spurs can even this series at a game apiece, we should be comfortable laying the points. San Antonio, while firmly on the public's betting radar, has still managed to avoid prolonged ATS skids in recent months. The Spurs have suffered consecutive ATS defeats just twice since January 22nd. We'll call for them to avoid that fate in Game 2 of this series on Wednesday. Take San Antonio (10*).

My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with the Cavaliers in Game 1 of this Eastern Conference semi-final round series on Tuesday. Cleveland snapped its 0-4 ATS streak with a win and cover against the Raptors in Game 7 of its first round series on Sunday. I believe it is well-positioned to put Detroit on 'upset' alert on Tuesday, even if this wouldn't be much of an upset at all. The Pistons have won three straight games and that's notable as they've won more than three games in a row just once going back to February 23rd. They're also checking in off back-to-back ATS victories. They've put together just two ATS winning streaks lasting three games or more since February 23rd and only four such streaks since November 24th. Take Cleveland (8*).

My selection is on the Athletics +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Athletics continue to chug along with an above .500 record as they begin a road trip in Philadelphia on Tuesday. They are at somewhat of an advantage here as they were idle on Monday while the Phillies wrapped up their four-game divisional series in a Miami and did so with a second straight victory, albeit by the narrowest of margins 1-0 (we won with the 'under' in that game). The A's will hand the ball to Luis Severino on Tuesday. While the starting pitching matchup figures to favor the Phillies heavily, a closer look indicates otherwise. Severino looked like he was done in 2023 as he posted a 6.14 FIP and 1.65 WHIP in 19 appearances with the Yankees. However, he's turned back the clock in the 2+ seasons since. He did get off to a shaky start this year but checks in off arguably his two best starts, holding the Rangers and Royals to just two earned runs on 10 hits over 13 2/3 innings of work. Note that he'll face a Phillies team that ranks 19th in the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and comfortably in the bottom-third of the majors in xwOBA over the last week. Severino has held current Phillies hitters to 16-for-60 (.267) at the plate with a .812 OPS. Cristopher Sanchez will counter for Philadelphia. He hasn't looked right over the last month or so as he has allowed 41 hits over his last 29 innings of work, spanning five starts. You would have to go back four starts to find the last time the Phillies won one of his outings by more than a single run. They're just 2-5 when factoring in the -1.5 run-line when Sanchez takes the hill this season. The A's have rounded back into form offensively of late, climbing to 12th in the majors in xwOBA over the last week. Finally, we'll note that the A's figure to have 'all hands on deck' as far as their bullpen goes after an off day on Monday. Their relief corps has been terrific in 18 road games this season, sporting a 2.15 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with seven saves converted and only three blown. Meanwhile, the Phillies 'pen owns a 4.80 ERA and 1.44 WHIP with just three saves converted and two blown at home. Look for the A's to take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take the Athletics +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Raptors staved off elimination thanks to, let's face it, a lucky bounce as R.J. Barrett's desperation three-point heave went down at the end of overtime on Friday night. Toronto has now reeled off four straight ATS victories in this series and that means it is approaching uncharted territory on Sunday as that four-game ATS winning streak matches its longest of the season. The Raptors have reached four consecutive ATS wins three previous occasions this season, dropping the cash in their next game on each occasion. Meanwhile, Cleveland has of course now dropped the cash in four straight games. The Cavaliers have lost more than four games in a row ATS just once previously this season, that coming during a six-game ATS slide back in December. I like the Cavs chances of finally putting the Raptors away with a convincing win at home on Sunday. Take Cleveland (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia +1.5 goals over Carolina at 8 pm et on Saturday.

Most are considering this series a cinch for the experienced Hurricanes as they take on the upstart Flyers, who looked a little shaky over the final few games of their first round series against the Penguins. I think we're being offered a fair price to back Philadelphia with an insurance goal in Game 1 on Saturday, however. Note that the Canes have now won five straight games and that has them entering uncharted territory as for as good as they've been this season, they've yet to notch more than five wins in a row this season. Philadelphia has proven to be a 'tough out' on the road this season, going 25-19 while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.2 goals. It's certainly worth noting that all four regular season matchups between these two teams went to either overtime or a shootout. Take Philadelphia +1.5 goals (8*).

Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

We've wisely laid off the side in the last two games in this series but will go back to the well with the Celtics as they return home for Game 7 on Saturday. Boston has now dropped the cash in consecutive games - losing outright in both - and that's notable as it has lost more than two games in a row ATS only twice going all the way back to November 5th and not since January. Meanwhile, the 76ers have seen each of their last seven two-game ATS winning streaks stop there and have won more than two games in a row ATS just twice since January 5th. The shots simply haven't been falling for Boston over the last couple of games as it was held to exactly 36 field goals in both Games 5 and 6. I'm confident we'll see the C's bounce back and close out this series in convincing fashion on Saturday. Take Boston (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Houston at 9:30 pm et on Friday.

The Rockets rose to the occasion and delivered an 'upset' win in Game 5 of this series on Thursday, extending it to a sixth game in Houston on Friday. We'll go the other way and back Los Angeles as it tries to wrap up the series in enemy territory. The fact that Houston has now delivered the cash in consecutive games is notable as it has just one ATS winning streak lasting three games or more to its credit going all the way back to December 1st. The Lakers, meanwhile, have lost more than two games in a row SU only twice since January 13th. Los Angeles welcomed Austin Reaves back in Game 5 and while his return wasn't enough to get it over the hump and close out this series, I do look for it to finish the job on Friday. Catching a generous helping of points is an added bonus in this spot. Take Los Angeles (8*).

Eastern Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday.

Game 2 of this series was about as ugly as it gets as the Raptors rallied late for a 93-89 victory to even things up at two games apiece. The Raptors actually got off a whopping 97 field goal attempts in that contest but made good on a woeful 32%. The difference ended up being Toronto's 36-23 edge in terms of free throw attempts, something I certainly don't see repeating as the scene shifts back to Cleveland for Game 5. The Raptors have now won and covered the spread in consecutive games. That's notable as they've posted just one ATS winning streak lasting more than two games going back to February 11th. The Cavs have lost more than two games in a row ATS on three different occasions but we're talking long-term, going back to January 10th. Of note, all three of those previous ATS skids included at least one game where they were favored by double-digits - a position they struggled to cover in this season (6-19 ATS). Expect Cleveland to rebound with a convincing victory here. Take Cleveland (10*).

My selection is on Denver minus the points over Minnesota at 10:30 pm et on Monday.

The Nuggets are heading into uncharted territory on the heels of three straight ATS losses. They've yet to suffer a longer ATS losing streak than that this entire season. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves have enjoyed just one ATS winning streak lasting longer than three games going back to January 10th, that coming in the form of a four-game ATS winning streak in the last week of January. We'll confidently back the reeling Nuggets on Monday as they return home and likely face an undermanned T'Wolves team. Take Denver (8*).

My selection is on Portland plus the points over San Antonio at 3:30 pm et on Sunday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with the Trail Blazers on Sunday as they look to bounce back from a double-digit loss in Game 3. Of course, Victor Wembanyama's health is the big story in this series as he missed Game 3 after suffering a concussion in Game 2. There's a good chance he returns on Sunday, in which case you'll likely be able to catch an even more generous helping of points with the Blazers. Regardless, I'm comfortable backing them at the current number. Note that Portland has lost consecutive games just once since March 4th. Meanwhile, the Spurs own just one ATS winning streak since March 30th so as good as they are, it's not as if they've been enjoying extended ATS success in recent weeks (I realize they had little to play for in the latter stages of the regular season). Look for the Blazers to take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take Portland (8*).

My selection is on Denver minus the points over Minnesota at 8:30 pm et on Saturday.

How quickly sentiment can change in a playoff series. Few were giving the Timberwolves any sort of shot after they dropped the opener in convincing fashion last Saturday. Since then, Minnesota has delivered consecutive wins and are suddenly in control entering Saturday's pivotal Game 4. We'll confidently back the Nuggets here as they look to even the series at a game apiece before heading back to Denver. Note that Minnesota has a grand total of zero ATS winning streaks lasting more than two games going back to February 2nd. Their lone ATS winning streak lasting longer than two games since January 10th went four contests back in late January. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have dropped the cash in more than two games in a row only once since February 20th, that coming in a three-game ATS slide in late March. How many times has Denver lost more than two games in a row SU this season? Just once, as it dropped three games in a row to kick off February. We'll take our chances laying the short number with the Nuggets on Saturday. Take Denver (8*).

My selection is on San Diego +1.5 runs over Arizona at 6:05 pm et on Saturday.

I certainly feel the case could be made for the wrong team being favored in this game. We'll grab the insurance run with the Padres in what projects as an incredibly high-scoring affair in Mexico City. German Marquez takes the ball for San Diego and the common line of thinking is that the surging Diamondbacks offense will feast on the veteran right-hander. However, Arizona ranks just 27th in the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They've done their feasting predominantly against southpaws. I think Marquez can pitch well enough to keep his team in the game and leave the rest to the Padres terrific bullpen. Speaking of bullpens, the D'Backs relief corps has predictably struggled this season with few good options after Saturday's starter Zac Gallen. Gallen is now three years removed from perennially contending for the N.L. Cy Young Award. He's been very hittable so far this season, allowing 31 base knocks in 25 2/3 innings of work. Through five outings he has recorded a 3.87 FIP to go along with a 1.48 WHIP. We saw the Padres bats wake up late in Thursday's come-from-behind win in Colorado and I think we'll witness some carry-over from that performance as they head to Mexico City where the ball figure to be flying all over the park. Take San Diego +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Phoenix at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Thunder bettors probably felt comfortable laying the points in Game 2 of this series after seeing what transpired in Game 1 (the Thunder won that game by 35 points). Phoenix didn't roll over, however, ultimately dropping a 120-107 decision and staying comfortably inside the pointspread. I don't think that means the Suns are about to keep things within single-digits on Saturday, however. Oklahoma City has lost consecutive games ATS just once going back to March 29th and that's despite having little to play for down the stretch. Meanwhile, the Suns have posted just one ATS winning streak since March 13th. Despite grabbing the cash in Game 2, they're still just 3-8 ATS over their last 11 contests. Take Oklahoma City (8*).

My selection is on Houston +1.5 runs over New York at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Astros on Friday as they open a series against the Yankees at Minute Maid Park. Houston has under-achieved to be sure this season as it sits at 10-16 on the campaign. It did just deliver a series win in Cleveland, however, and I look for it to build on that positive momentum as it returns home on Friday. This is a tough spot for the Yankees as they stay on the road off a big series sweep over the rival Red Sox. Will Warren will take the ball for New York on Friday. He's been terrific so far this season but much of his success has come at home. For his career, he's really struggled on the road, to the tune of a 2-4 record and a 5.32 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 20 starts. Lance McCullers Jr. will start for Houston. He's been up-and-down so far this season but has certainly shown improvement over the limited work he got in last year. He checks in sporting a 3.98 FIP and 1.38 WHIP. Like Warren, he's shown a strong home-road dichotomy, logging a career 3.21 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with an impressive 29-16 record at home but a 23-22 mark with a 4.39 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road. The Astros bullpen behind McCullers has been much better at home than on the road this season, converting five saves without any blown at Minute Maid Park. Houston also has the advantage of having been idle yesterday so it will be all hands on deck out of the 'pen on Friday. New York's bullpen is really lacking depth right now and we've seen it post a collective 1.52 WHIP in 21 2/3 innings of work on the road. Take Houston +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Boston minus the points over Philadelphia at 7 pm et on Friday.

I really like the way this spot sets up for the Celtics. We're already 2-0 ATS in this series after cashing Boston in Game 1 and Philadelphia in Game 2. I think that zig-zag trend does continue here and as I noted ahead of Game 2, the SU winner has gone 14-0 ATS in the Celtics last 14 games and 17-1 ATS in the 76ers last 18 contests. It was fairly easy to predict a letdown from Boston after it demolished Philadelphia by 32 points in Game 1. Now we'll note that the C's have lost consecutive games just once since January 15th. They've lost the cash in consecutive games only twice since February 11th. I don't see it happening here as the scene shifts to Philadelphia for Game 3 on Friday. Take Boston (8*).

My selection is on Chicago +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 2:20 pm et on Thursday.

It may be counter-intuitive to back the Cubs as they look to complete the series sweep of the Phillies on Thursday but that's often the way you have to approach baseball. The fact is, the Phillies are mired in a major slump, falling to 8-16 on the campaign. While they do have one of their best starting pitching options tabbed for Thursday's series finale, I'm not convinced that Cristopher Sanchez's presence alone will lead them out of their slide. Note that the Cubs actually rank second in baseball, behind only the mighty Dodgers, in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. They also sit seventh in the majors in xwOBA over the last week. In stark contrast, the Phillies are 30th (last) in wOBA and 26th in xwOBA over the same stretch. Sanchez has been a much better pitcher at home than on the road over the course of his career, sporting a 3.92 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with a 2.8 K:BB ration away from home compared to a 2.64 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with a 5.4 K:B ratio in his home park. He's a career 20-9 in Philadelphia and 12-14 everywhere else. Not only that but the Cubs have had some success off of Sanchez, with their current hitters going a collective 13-for-48 (.271) with a healthy .822 OPS against him. Edward Cabrera will counter for Chicago. A big off-season acquisition for the Cubs, he hasn't exactly been dominant in the early going but Chicago has still managed to win three of his four starts. He's a career 19-10 starter at home with a 3.48 ERA and 1.24 WHIP compared to an 8-19 road record with a 4.56 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Current Phillies hitters are 21-for-85 (.247) with a .765 OPS against the right-hander. I do have respect for the Philadelphia bullpen, even if it has struggled lately. With that being said, Chicago's relief corps has been lights out both at home (2.18 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with three saves converted and none blown) and recently (1.42 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with two saves converted and none blown over the last week). We'll grab the insurance run here in what does project as a tightly-contested affair at Wrigley Field. Take Chicago +1.5 runs (8*).

Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Tuesday.

The Rockets were stunned by the Lakers in the opener of this series on Saturday as Kevin Durant's late scratch certainly left them in shambles offensively. Houston actually got off 93 field goal attempts compared to Los Angeles' 66 in that series-opener. The Lakers quite simply shot the lights out (40-of-66 from the field) - something I don't expect them to repeat on Tuesday. Of note, Houston has still held four of its last five opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. The shots weren't falling for the Rockets on Saturday but I like the way they've been pushing the pace (93 or more field goal attempts in four of their last five games) and think we'll see a bounce-back performance with Durant likely to return on Tuesday. The Lakers have now delivered the cash in four straight games and that's worth noting as they have only one ATS winning streak lasting four games or more going back to November 8th. The Rockets haven't lost consecutive games ATS since a four-game ATS slide from March 21st to 27th. Take Houston (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Boston at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

We won with the Celtics in their Game 1 rout on Sunday but I'll go the other way and grab the generous helping of points with the 76ers in Game 2 on Tuesday. Boston has now reeled off three straight victories both SU and ATS. Of note, the Celtics have won more than three games in a row ATS just once going back to February 25th - a four-game ATS winning streak earlier this month. Sunday's defeat snapped the 76ers three-game SU and two-game ATS winning streaks. Philadelphia has just one losing streak SU and ATS going back to March 10th. While the Sixers are not one of the league's better three-point shooting teams by any means, their 4-for-23 performance in Game 1 is unlikely to be repeated in Game 2. Boston has actually been vulnerable in terms of perimeter defense this season and prior to Sunday had yielded at least eight made threes in every game this season. I simply feel the C's are laying too many points on the heels of Sunday's blowout win. Take Philadelphia (8*).

My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Denver at 10:30 pm et on Monday.

We missed with the Timberwolves on Saturday as they got off to a strong start but fizzled over the final three quarters in a double-digit loss. I do think they're worth backing again on Monday, however, as they look to even this series up at a game apiece. The Nuggets are in uncharted territory right now as they ride a season-high 13-game winning streak. Not only that but they've now delivered the cash in three straight games, marking their longest ATS winning streak since a 6-0 ATS stretch back in November. Minnesota has lost consecutive games ATS just once since March 13th, going 10-6 ATS over its last 16 contests. Anthony Edwards is once again listed as questionable due to 'injury management' on Monday and that will certainly give a lot of potential T'Wolves backers pause ahead of this one. We'll do the difficult thing and back Minnesota again off Saturday's frustrating defeat. Take Minnesota (8*).

My selection is on the Athletics +1.5 runs over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Monday.

The Athletics had a rough weekend at home against the White Sox, dropping two of three games to fall to 11-11 on the season. I do like their chances of bouncing back on Monday as they head on the road to take on the Mariners, who are also off to a slow start at 10-13. J.T. Ginn will take the ball for the A's on Monday. He has been a better pitcher on the road than at home and that's not overly surprising given the A's play their home games at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. Since breaking into the bigs in 20224, Ginn has logged a 5.67 ERA and 1.47 WHIP at home but a 3.32 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the road. He's made five starts so far this season and the A's have won his last four. The current Mariners lineup has only had limited looks at him with no hitter seeing him more than three times. Emerson Hancock will counter for Seattle. He's off to a terrific start this season with a 2.75 FIP and 0.76 WHIP. I can't help but feel regression will be coming for him, however, noting that he still owns a career 4.92 FIP and 1.28 WHIP. He's a career .500 starter at 10-10 including a 6-6 record at T-Mobile Park since his debut in 2023. While the bullpen advantage figures to go go the Mariners, recent form says otherwise as Seattle's relief corps has logged a 6.48 ERA and 2.04 WHIP over the last week. Of note, key relievers Gabe Speier and closer Andres Munoz have worked each of the last two days and may not be available for this one. The A's long relievers have been overworked lately but they should still have plenty of arms available out of the 'pen on Monday. Take the Athletics +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 5:45 pm et on Sunday.

I don't think the Canadiens can afford to ease themselves into this series as it's undoubtedly a tough draw against an experienced opponent. Many of these young Habs got their first taste of playoff action last year as they made an early exit in just five games in the opening round against the Capitals. Of note, Montreal did take Washington to overtime in the opener of that series on the road. I don't think there's any sort of intimidation factor at play here. Montreal knows it can hang with Tampa Bay as it won in this building on March 31st before taking an ultra-tight 2-1 decision on home ice on April 9th. The absence of Victor Hedman on the Bolts blue line cannot be understated. All indications are that he could return at some point in these playoffs and possibly in this series as he has resumed skating, but for now he remains sidelined. Of course, Montreal is missing its own top blue-liner in Noah Dobson. The Habs couldn't have been happy about the way they ended the regular season as they dropped a 4-2 decision in Philadelphia on Tuesday, dashing their hopes of earning home ice advantage in this first round series. I think head coach Martin St. Louis will have his team ready to go on Sunday. Montreal is 6-1 when factoring in the +1.5 puck-line when coming off a road loss by two games or more this season. Finally, the Bolts are just 4-10 over their last 14 games when factoring in the -1.5 puck-line. Take Montreal +1.5 goals (8*).

My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Phoenix at 3:30 pm et on Sunday.

The Suns convincing win over the Warriors to punch their ticket to this first round matchup with the Thunder is still fresh in the minds of most bettors, as is Phoenix's 'upset' win here in Oklahoma City one week ago. Not so fresh is the Thunder's 136-109 rout of the Suns on the road back on February 11th. Oklahoma City enters these playoffs healthy and in excellent position to defend its NBA title from a year ago. I don't think the Thunder will take the Suns lightly, however, as Phoenix did give it some heartburn during five regular season matchups, going 3-2 ATS. The Thunder do enter this game off consecutive losses both SU and ATS but those came with nothing on the line in the final week of the regular season. Prior to that, Oklahoma City had reeled off seven straight victories SU and four in a row ATS. I expect the Thunder to roll in Game 1 on Sunday. Take Oklahoma City (8*).

My selection is on Boston minus the points over Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Celtics are my pick to win the Eastern Conference and I think they get their postseason off to a positive start with a convincing win over the 76ers on Sunday. Philadelphia cruised to a 109-97 win over Orlando in the Play-In Tournament, marking its third straight victory overall and second in a row ATS. That's notable as Philadelphia won more than three games in a row just twice previously this season and one of those streaks came way back at the very start of the campaign. Also of note, it hasn't won three consecutive games ATS since doing so from February 22nd to 26th. The Celtics check in off consecutive SU and ATS victories as well. I think they still have room to run, noting they have a pair of three-game or longer ATS winning streaks since March 25th and a whopping eight ATS winning streaks lasting three games or more this season. I'll also point out that the straight-up winner has gone a perfect 12-0 ATS in Boston's last 12 games - that's a bit of a sneaky angle that I do like to use in my postseason handicapping toolbox. The SU winner has gone 15-1 ATS in Philadelphia's last 16 contests. Of course, it's possible the Sixers stage an 'upset' victory here in the series-opener, but I think there's a much better chance we see the rested C's come out and put on a clinic at home. Take Boston (8*).

Northwest Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Denver at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I can understand the support for the Nuggets in this series-opener on Saturday. After all, Minnesota still doesn't know whether Anthony Edwards will be able to play and the Nuggets are as hot as any team entering the postseason, riding a season-high 12-game winning streak SU and off back-to-back victories ATS. The Timberwolves played pretty well down the stretch also, even if there was little on the line, going 3-1 SU and ATS over its final four regular season contests. While Minnesota has been somewhat disappointing as a whole this season, it certainly has a shot at redemption in this series and I think it matches up well with Denver. Note that the T'Wolves were actually one of the league's best bets over the final month of the regular campaign, going 9-5 ATS over their last 14 games. Denver is laying points off consecutive ATS victories and it's worth noting that it has just one ATS winning streak lasting longer than two games dating back to January 29th (a three-game ATS winning streak from March 9th to 12th). We'll grab all the points we can get with Minnesota on Saturday. Take Minnesota (10*).

My selection is on the Athletics -1.5 runs over Chicago at 9:40 pm et on Friday.

The White Sox 'are who we thought they were' - at least so far this season. After a promising 4-5 start, Chicago has now lost eight of its last 10 games to fall to a big league-worst 6-13 on the campaign. Even yesterday, in a game the White Sox led entering the ninth inning, they still couldn't hang on for a run-line cover against the Rays at home. The Athletics couldn't secure the series victory against the Rangers, falling by a 9-6 score yesterday. I like their chances of bouncing back here. Davis Martin has posted middling numbers for the White Sox and what little the A's current hitters have seen of him, they have liked, going a collective 4-for-14 (.286) with an .802 OPS and only two strikeouts compared to four walks. Veteran Aaron Civale will get the nod for the A's. I think this is the type of matchup he can navigate. His early returns have been mixed this season as he owns a terrific 1.72 ERA but a 4.25 FIP, albeit with a solid 0.96 WHIP through 15 2/3 innings of work. The bullpen advantage, while not overwhelming, does go the A's way in this one. The White Sox 'emptied the tank' in that regard yesterday, using six different relievers in a losing effort. All eight of their relievers have worked over the last two days with six of them throwing 20+ pitches. Take the Athletics -1.5 runs (8*).

NOTE: Play voided due to pitching change for Colorado.

My selection is on Colorado +1.5 runs over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Astros have taken the first two games of this series to turn things around after an extended losing streak. We'll take a flyer on the Rockies with an insurance run in our pocket as they look to avoid the series sweep on Thursday. Tomoyuki Sugano will take the ball for Colorado. While home runs have been a problem in the early going, there are positive signs through three outings as he has allowed fewer hits and walks while recording more strikeouts per nine innings than he did while going 10-10 in 30 starts with the Orioles last year. Keep in mind, Sugano has faced a pretty tough slate of opponents so far this season as well in the Padres, Phillies and Blue Jays. The Astros rank in the middle of the pack in the majors in terms of xwOBA over the last week and 22nd in home runs. Ryan Weiss is slated to make his first big league start for the Astros after five appearances out of the bullpen. He owns a 5.61 FIP And 2.09 WHIP in 11 innings of work and may only be making a cameo appearance here. With that being said, the Astros bullpen has been awful so far this season with a 6.12 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. Their saving grace has been their ability to close out games with five saves converted and none blown. However, their overall numbers indicate the opposition is making a game of it on most nights. Take Colorado +1.5 runs (8*).

Play-In Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday.

The Magic couldn't avoid the play-in tournament as they fell in 'upset' fashion on the road against a scrappy but undermanned Celtics team on Sunday. Off that disappointing setback, a lot of bettors are expecting them to simply fold the tent but I see it going the other way as they head to Philadelphia for Wednesday's 7-8 showdown. The pressure isn't quite as high in this matchup as the loser still gets another shot to advance to the first round of the playoffs, squaring off against the winner of the 9-10 game. Regardless, I feel the Magic are the better team in this matchup, even if the 76ers finished ahead of them by way of a tie-breaker. Prior to Sunday's stunning defeat, Orlando had won five games in a row SU and three straight ATS. Of note, it has suffered just one ATS losing streak going back to March 3rd and it hasn't lost consecutive games SU since a six-game slide in March. The 76ers have dealt with injury issues all season and were dealt a serious blow to their chances when Joel Embiid was forced to have an appendectomy last week. Philadelphia did manage to save face by winning its final two regular season games including a blowout win over the lowly Bucks on Sunday. However, they had dropped the cash in four straight games prior to Sunday's victory and are just 13-17 ATS over their last 30 contests. Home court advantage has meant little in this particular matchup this season with the road team taking two of three meetings. Take Orlando (10*).

My selection is on Minnesota +1.5 runs over Boston at 1:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The 'avoid the sweep' crowd figures to be out in full force backing the Red Sox in this game. We've already taken advantage of that once this season, cashing with the Astros as they wrapped up a series sweep of Boston two weeks ago. We'll do the same with the red hot Twins on Wednesday. Minnesota ranks third in the majors in xwOBA over the last week. It also sits seventh in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season and it will face a southpaw starter in Connelly Early of the Red Sox on Wednesday. Early is off to a fine start by some metrics, including a 2.94 FIP through three outings. However, he has allowed 22-of-61 (36%) of batters he has faced to reach base and given how well Minnesota has been hitting, it is likely to take advantage here. Simeon Woods Richardson will counter for the Twins. He doesn't instill a ton of confidence but will be facing a Red Sox club that ranks 24th in baseball in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Current Boston hitters have gone a healthy 7-for-22 (.318) but with only a .764 OPS against Woods Richardson. We're talking about a small sample size and only one of those seven hits went for extra bases. Of the nine Red Sox hitters that have seen Woods Richardson, only five have collected a hit and just one has more than one hit (Isiah Kiner-Falefa - a part-time player - is 3-for-4 with three singles). We'll grab the insurance run here as the Twins bullpen has admittedly struggled in the early going this season. While Minnesota's bullpen numbers are gawdy for the most part, it has managed to convert five saves while blowing only one. Take Minnesota +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Portland plus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

Of all the teams in the play-in tournament I think the Trail Blazers are the biggest afterthought for most. Phoenix certainly can't afford to overlook Portland, however, noting that the Blazers went 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS over their final 14 regular season contests. Not only that but they won the most recent meeting between these two teams 92-77 here in Phoenix on February 22nd. Home court advantage meant little in this series this season with the road team taking all three matchups. The Suns saved face with a 135-103 rout of the Thunder in Oklahoma City on Sunday. That victory only served to snap Phoenix's six-game ATS slide. The Suns own a 6-10 SU record going back to March 13th. Of note, the SU winner has gone just 10-5 ATS over the Suns last 15 games and so there's certainly a good chance Phoenix wins this game but fails to cover the pointspread as well. Take Portland (8*).

A.L. West Game of the Year. My selection is on the Athletics +1.5 runs over Texas at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Rangers took the opener of this series last night, marking their second straight victory following an 'upset' win over the Dodgers in Los Angeles on Sunday. We'll grab the insurance run with the Athletics on Tuesday as I think the case can be made for the wrong team being favored in this A.L. West matchup. MacKenzie Gore will take the ball for Texas. Granted he spent the first four years of his big league career pitching for some bad Nationals teams, Gore owns a career 28-41 record. He's 2-0 this season but draws an incredibly difficult matchup on Tuesday. The A's current hitters have absolutely worn Gore out, albeit in a relatively small sample size, collecting 18 hits in 32 at-bats (.562) wtih a 1.369 OPS. The A's rank eighth in the majors in xwOBA over the last week - 11 spots ahead of the Rangers. Jeffrey Springs gets the start for the A's. It's easy to forget that he was emerging as an elite southpaw for the Rays before injuries derailed him in back-to-back seasons. He showed signs of returning to form across 30 starts last year and so far, so good here in 2026 as well as he is 2-0 with a 2.53 FIP and 0.76 WHIP. Current Rangers hitters have gone just 12-for-51 (.235) with a .703 OPS against the left-hander. The Rangers do have the better bullpen in this matchup based on early returns this season. However, the A's relief corps has improved lately, postin ga 3.33 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with three saves converted and only one blown over the last week. Take the Athletics +1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on St. Louis +1.5 runs over Cleveland at 7:45 pm et on Tuesday.

The Guardians delivered a blowout win to open this series last night. I look for the Cardinals to put forth a more competitive effort on Tuesday as they look to even this series at a game apiece. Of note, Cleveland has yet to deliver consecutive road wins this season. St. Louis' current three-game slide marks a season-high. Joey Cantillo will take the ball for Cleveland. The left-hander is off to a terrific start this season. Like most young pitchers, he has pitched better at home than on the road over the course of his career. In 74 career innings pitched at home he owns a 3.28 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with a 3.4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. On the road he has logged a 3.86 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with a 2.1 K:BB ratio in 74 2/3 innings. The Cardinals, despite their recent struggles, actually check in top-nine in the majors in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Note that the Cleveland bullpen continues to be a sore spot in the early going this season and has posted a 5.68 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 19 innings of work over the last week. Michael McGreevy will counter for St. Louis. He's off to a similar start to the season as Cantillo. He's been a winner in the early stages of his career, posting a 12-5 mark in 24 big league appearances including 22 starts since 2024. The Cards are 2-0 in his two previous home starts this season. The Guardians rank 18th in the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. St. Louis' bullpen got off to a rocky start this season but has settled down over the last week, posting a 3.75 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, yielding just 16 hits, nine walks and 10 earned runs over 24 innings. Take St. Louis +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Miami plus the points over Charlotte at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

The Hornets snapped their two-game slide with a win in New York on Sunday but that was against a Knicks team that rested its starters in the final game of the regular season. I think Charlotte is going to have its hands full with Miami on Tuesday as the Hornets don't have much playoff experience to draw on. While the atmosphere should be at a fever pitch in Charlotte as the team returns to the postseason (sort of) for the first time in a decade, this is a tough draw against a Heat team that got itself sorted out over its final two regular season contests, blowing out the Wizards and Hawks to put its recent 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS slide in the rear-view mirror. The last meeting between these two teams took place on this floor on March 17th and it was no contest as the Hornets prevailed 136-106. Keep in mind, just 11 nights earlier the Heat won outright as a +7.5-point underdog here in Charlotte. In fact, Miami went 3-1 SU and ATS against Charlotte during the regular season. We'll back the unpopular road underdog on Tuesday. Take Miami (8*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh -1.5 runs over Washington at 6:40 pm et on Monday.

The Nationals enter this series off an improbable weekend sweep of the Brewers in Milwaukee. Credit Washington for beating up on Milwaukee pitching and turning in some solid pitching performances of its own in that impressive three-game set. I think its streak will come to an end on Monday, however, as it heads to Pittsburgh to face Paul Skenes and the Pirates. While Pittsburgh failed to complete its own series sweep of the Cubs yesterday, it still has to be feeling pretty good about itself as it returns home sporting a 9-6 record through 15 games. The Nats' will face a tall order on Monday as they go up against Paul Skenes, with many of their hitters seeing him for the first time (their current roster has just nine collective at-bats against him with only one hit). Cade Cavalli is an impressive young starter in his own right for Washington but he's been shaky in the early going this season, allowing 23 of the 62 batters he has faced to reach base, good for a 3.91 FIP and 1.47 WHIP. The Pirates current rank eighth in the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Behind Cavalli is a Nats' bullpen that has logged a 5.78 ERA and 1.54 WHIP with three saves converted and five blown so far this season. Take Pittsburgh -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Washington plus the points over Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Sunday.

Whether by design or not, the Wizards have done a masterful job of 'tanking' this season but now their work is just about done. The Wizards enter Sunday's regular season finale in Cleveland on a nine-game SU and four-game ATS losing streak. Of note, that four-game ATS slide marks their longest since dropping the cash in five straight games back in mid-January. The Cavaliers rolled over in Friday's 124-102 loss in Atlanta and won't play any of its regulars in Sunday's home finale. While Cleveland might still be able to outlast an awful Washington team, I'm not convinced it will win by margin, noting that ATS defeats have had a tendency to come in bunches for the Cavs down the stretch (five ATS losing streaks since February 20th) and even with all hands on deck, they've had a tendency to get involved in plenty of tightly-contested affairs. Take Washington (8*).

My selection is on Charlotte minus the points over New York at 6:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Hornets couldn't have been pleased with their performance on Friday as they dropped a 118-100 'upset' decision at home against the Pistons. It doesn't sound like Charlotte will be resting its starters on Sunday - the line certainly points to that - but even if it does implement some form of  'load management', I still expect it to win by margin against a makeshift Knicks team. New York will rest its starters with the exception of Mikal Bridges, who will make a cameo appearance to keep his games played streak alive. Unlike the Hornets, the Knicks are fresh off a decisive victory over the Raptors on Friday, marking their fourth straight ATS win. Apart from their current streak, they haven't enjoyed a ton of pointspread success down the stretch, going 3-10 ATS in their 13 games prior. The Hornets are coming off back-to-back ATS defeats but have lost more than two in a row ATS just once going all the way back to November 12th. Take Charlotte (8*).