My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Saturday.

We've seen a major shift in this series, not only with the Celtics winning the last two games, but from a pace perspective. Game 4 saw the Celtics get off 84 field goal attempts while Miami managed to hoist up only 78. In Game 5, Miami got off only 79 field goal attempts with Boston attempting 79. Of course, the Celtics have shot a blistering 51.2% and 50.6% over the last two contests to get back in the series. I do expect a response from the Heat defensively here after Boston shot the lights out from beyond the arc in Game 5. On the flip side, we'll note that the 'under' is now a perfect 8-0 with the Celtics facing elimination in the playoffs over the last two seasons, allowing only 93.1 points per game in the process. That situation has produced an average total of just 198.1 points. Boston has now been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in 11 straight games while Miami has held the opposition to 43 or fewer made field goals in an incredible 14 consecutive contests. Take the under (8*).

Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday.

Game 3 ultimately sailed 'over' the total thanks in large part to the lopsided nature of that contest. The game was actually well on track to stay 'under' the total until the floodgates opened in the final eight minutes or so of the fourth quarter. While most expect the Celtics to roll over on Tuesday, I do think we'll see them show some fight and that ultimately projects to a much tighter affair than we saw on Sunday. While the Heat did allow 98 field goal attempts in Sunday's victory, the Celtics could only connect on 39 of them. On the flip side, Miami shot the lights out, making good on 46-of-81 field goal attempts. I would anticipate seeing a similar tempo from the Heat here, noting that they've gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 12 of their last 15 contests. While the Celtics haven't lived up to expectations defensively this season, and allowed 46 made field goals in Game 3 of this series on Sunday, it is worth noting that they haven't allowed 46 or more successful FG attempts in consecutive games since November 30th and December 2nd and that was the only occasion in which they did all season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 103-64 with the Heat coming off a game in which they shot 55% or better from the field, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 205-159 with Miami checking in off a win by 15 points or more. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Sunday.

The first two games in this series have both gone 'over' the total but I look for a different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Miami for Game 3 on Sunday. Note that the Heat haven't been involved in three consecutive 'over' results since their first round series against the up-tempo Bucks. The pace wasn't necessarily there for an 'over' result in either of the first two games in this series. Game 1 saw the Heat and Celtics get off 85 and 81 field goal attempts, respectively. In Game 2, the Heat picked up the pace thanks to trailing by double-digits for stretches, hoisting up 92 field goal attempts. The Celtics were once again stymied, getting off only 79 FG attempts. The Heat have now held five straight opponents to 81 or fewer FG attempts. Meanwhile, Game 2 sticks out as an anomaly for the Celtics defensively as they've limited seven of their last nine foes to fewer than 90 FG attempts. The last time they allowed 90 or more FG attempts in a game they followed it up by allowing only 79 in their next contest. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 25-14 with the Celtics installed as a road favorite of six points or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take the under (8*).

Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Thursday.

These two teams went off for 258 combined points in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday. In my analysis prior to that contest I noted that the Lakers offensive ceiling would be considerably higher against the Nuggets (or had proven to be) than it was against the Warriors last round, with a similar floor. Los Angeles essentially hit that ceiling, or came awfully close, in the series-opener. In Game 2, I anticipate some regression with the Lakers likely falling closer to that typical 'floor' production level in this particular matchup. By that I mean Los Angeles had made good on 41 or fewer field goals in two of four regular season meetings in this series. The Lakers pace in Game 1 certainly wasn't indicative of the 126 points they ended up scoring as they actually got off only 84 field goal attempts in the contest. In fact, the Nuggets have now held four straight and 10 of their last 13 opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. The Lakers, meanwhile, haven't gotten off more than 87 field goal attempts in a game since Game 2 against the Warriors last round (they scored a series-low 100 points in that contest). While the Nuggets hoisted up 91 FG attempts on Tuesday that type of up-tempo performance has been the exception rather than the rule. Generally-speaking, it's not easy to speed up Denver. To find the last time the Nuggets got off 90 or more FG attempts in consecutive games you would have to go back to March 31st and April 2nd and both of those contests actually stayed 'under' the total with Denver scoring just 93 and 112 points. After shooting the lights out in consecutive games going back to the series-clincher against the Suns last round, I'm anticipating some regression from the Nuggets here offensively. Keep in mind, in four regular season meetings between these two teams, Denver knocked down 'only' 42, 41, 39 and 46 field goals, scoring 122 points in the latter outlier performance in which they got off a whopping 99 FG attempts in early January (that game still totalled 'only' 231 points). Take the under (10*). Finally, we'll note that while the Lakers average 116.6 points per game overall this season, that number drops to 114.9 ppg when coming off consecutive ATS wins (22-game sample size), as is the case here. The Nuggets average 116.0 ppg this season with that scoring average dropping to 113.7 ppg when coming off three or more consecutive wins, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday.

The oddsmakers did a good job of setting totals in the Lakers previous series against the Warriors with five of the six games finishing within 4.5 points of the closing total. We saw the totals edge lower as that series went on and here in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals we're seeing a significantly lower total than we saw in Game 1 against the Warriors. With all of that being said, I don't believe the shift is warranted. Last round I talked on numerous occasions about how the Lakers had a solid floor in terms of scoring production against the Warriors but not all that high of a ceiling. I believe we're dealing with a different set of circumstances here against the Nuggets, noting that Los Angeles has knocked down 40 or more field goals in six straight meetings in this series but has also shown the ability to break out, making good on 46 or more field goals in three of those six contests. On the flip side, Denver has knocked down more than 40 field goals in six of the last seven matchups in this series, making good on 46 or more in four of those contests. The Nuggets are in excellent form off a series against Phoenix in which they connected on 42 or more field goals in five of six games. The Lakers continue to afford their opponents a ton of scoring opportunities having allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in nine of their last 10 games. While Los Angeles' offense did get bogged down a bit as the series went on against Golden State, that will happen when you're playing every other day over a 10-day stretch. Note that the Lakers have played on three or more days' rest, as is the case here, on four previous occasions this season (not including their season-opener) and have knocked down 43, 42, 49 and 43 field goals in those four contests, producing an average point total of 124.3 points in that situation. Take the over (8*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Friday.

We're finally seeing a significant adjustment made to the total in this series, even after Game 5 ended up sneaking 'over' the closing number. I still feel Friday's total will prove too high. The Warriors went off offensively, knocking down 47-of-92 field goal attempts in Wednesday's victory. That was at home. They've made good on 43 or fewer field goals in five of their six playoff road games. On a similar note, the Lakers have now held their opponents to 36, 35, 42 (overtime game), 29, 36 and 40 made field goals in seven home playoff games (including the Play-In Tournament game against Minnesota). As I've mentioned throughout this series, while Los Angeles does have a fairly solid floor in terms of offensive production against the Warriors, it doesn't have a particularly high ceiling, topping out at 43 made field goals in nine matchups going back to the start of the regular season. Both teams are dealing with injury issues, as is often the case at this stage of the playoffs, with the Warriors listing Andrew Wiggins as questionable to play due to a rib injury and Anthony Davis probable after a possible concussion. I would anticipate both playing on Friday but certainly Wiggins - a key offensive contributor for the Warriors - won't be 100% healthy. As I've also noted throughout this series, the Warriors are on quite a defensive run having held 21 of their last 22 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals with the 'under' going 12-10 over that stretch. Finally, I'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 36-17 with Golden State playing on the road off a double-digit win over a division opponent, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

We've now seen each of the last three games in this series go 'over' the total which sends Game 6 into 'uncharted territory', at least in recent years. I say that because we haven't seen four straight matchups between these two teams go 'over' the total since 2016-17. The pace certainly wasn't there to dictate such a high-scoring result in Game 5 on Tuesday. Boston got off 83 field goal attempts in that game while Philadelphia countered with only 79. The 76ers quite simply shot the lights out but I expect the Celtics to make the necessary defensive adjustments here as they face potential elimination on Thursday night. Since allowing the Sixers to knock down 45 field goals in Game 1 of this series, Boston has held Philadelphia to just 31, 31, 42 and 40 made field goals over the last four contests. On the flip side, the 76ers have now limited each of their last 10 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. In fact, nine of Philadelphia's last 10 opponents have gotten off 87 or fewer FG attempts. The lone outlier came back in Game 2 of this series last week - the only game that happened to stay 'under' the total in this series to date. Here, we'll note that the 'under' remains a long-term 231-187 with the Celtics seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite, as is the case here. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Denver at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

The last two games in this series both flew 'over' the total as the Suns answered back after digging an 0-2 hole in Denver with consecutive wins on their home floor. The pace wasn't necessarily there for such a high-scoring affair in Game 4 (it reached 153 total points) as the Nuggets hoisted up 89 field goal attempts while the Suns got off only 81. Both teams simply shot the lights out. I don't anticipate a repeat performance from either team as the series shifts back to Denver on Tuesday. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 44-21 with the Nuggets playing at home after allowing their opponent to shoot 55% or better from the field in their previous contest, as is the case here. Denver has been stingy defensively at the best of times at home this season, yielding just 108.5 points per game but that number drops to 107.0 ppg when coming off an 'over' result with that spot producing an average total of 225.2 points (Nuggets home games have averaged 227.2 points overall this season). The fact that the 'over' has cashed in consecutive matchups between these two teams is worth noting as we haven't seen three straight 'over' results in this series in the same season since the 2020-21 campaign (and in that case the third game totalled just 227 points). Take the under (8*).

Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Phoenix at 8 pm et on Sunday.

It seems like the oddsmakers are playing 'catch-up' with the totals in this series, making the usual adjustments after the fact but ultimately overreacting in hindsight (as is often the case). Game 1 saw 232 total points so the total was adjusted a couple of points higher for Game 2, which ended up reaching only 184 points. For Game 3, the total was adjusted considerably lower only for that contest to sail 'over' with 235 total points. Here, we're again working with a higher posted total and I believe it will prove too high. The Nuggets were baited into a much faster-paced affair than they probably would have liked in Game 3, hoisting up 97 field goal attempts themselves while allowing the Suns to get off 95. As we anticipated, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant relished the opportunity to play 'hero ball' down 2-0 in the series and with most counting them out with Chris Paul sidelined. The pair combined to knock down 32 field goals and score a whopping 86 points in the victory. I'm confident we'll see the Nuggets make the necessary adjustments here, noting that they had held 10 straight and an incredible 19 of their last 20 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals prior to Phoenix knocking down 48 in that contest. As I mentioned, Denver got off 97 FG attempts in Friday's loss. You would have to go back to March 31st and April 2nd to find the last time it hoisted up more than 90 FG attempts in consecutive games though, and those previous two contests still totalled only 193 and 222 points. Phoenix didn't look good defensively in Game 1 of this series but has held Denver to just 36 and 43 made field goals in two games since. Note that the Suns have limited 30 of their last 37 foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. While Phoenix went off in Game 3, it had previously been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in five consecutive meetings in this series. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 8:30 pm et on Saturday.

The first two games of this series both went 'over' the total (using the closing total for Game 2, noting the final score fell right around the number) but I look for a different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Los Angeles for Game 3 on Saturday. Yes, the Warriors continue to give up a ton of scoring opportunities, yielding 90 or more field goal attempts in an incredible 15 straight games. However, there's been a method to their madness as they've held 18 of their last 19 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. The Lakers don't figure to be the ones to break through, at least not right now as they've knocked down 43 or fewer field goals in six of their last seven games and that's despite hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in each of their last six contests. Speaking of defense, Los Angeles turned in a poor effort at that end of the floor in Thursday's predictable Warriors bounce-back game. Still, the Lakers have held eight of their last nine and 12 of their last 15 foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. While the Warriors can still get hot at times, as we saw in Game 2 of this series, they've actually made good on 43 or fewer field goals in six of nine games in these playoffs. Also note that while the 'over' has cashed in the first two games of this series, Golden State hasn't seen three straight games go 'over' the total since a four-game 'over' streak way back in early February. The Lakers have had just one 'over' streak last more than two games going all the way back to December 28th, but it was a long one with eight straight contests finding their way 'over' the total from March 26th to April 9th. Take the under (8*).

Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Boston at 8 pm et on Wednesday.

Game 1 of this series sailed 'over' the total witb both teams shooting the lights out in a 119-115 76ers victory in Boston. I expect a much different story to unfold on Wednesday. The pace certainly didn't dictate such a high-scoring affair in the series-opener. Philadelphia hoisted up 89 field goal attempts while Boston got off just 75 in a stunning home defeat. Note that the 76ers knocked down 45 field goals - just the fourth time in their last 17 games that they managed to connect on more than 42 field goals. On the flip side, the 44 made field goals they allowed served as the first time in six games they yielded 40 or more successful field goal attempts. In fact, Philadelphia has still limited 18 of its last 23 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While Boston hasn't been as stout defensively as we've become accustomed to seeing in these playoffs, I am confident it can bounce back from Monday's poor showing in Game 2. Note that the Celtics have held 18 of their last 21 opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals - not a bad high-water mark in that department when you consider they've allowed 89 or more FG attempts in 10 straight and 14 of their last 15 contests. As I've noted previously in these playoffs, the C's have been yielding too many scoring opportunities but the 76ers are unlikely to continue to push the pace the way they did in Game 1, noting they've hoisted up fewer than 90 FG attempts in 13 of their last 16 games and average just 84 FG attempts per game this season. Finally, we'll note that the Celtics are heading into uncharted territory having matched their longest 'over' streak of the season at five games. Interestingly, the only previous time they posted five consecutive 'over' results, their next game stayed 'under' the total against these same 76ers. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Golden State at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

Both of these teams wrapped up round one of the NBA Playoffs with consecutive 'under' results. In fact, the 'under' went 4-1 in the final five games of the Lakers 4-2 series win over the Grizzlies. The 'under' cashed in four of the last six games in the Warriors 4-3 series victory over the Kings. I expect a different story to unfold in Game 1 of this Western Conference semi-final round series on Tuesday, however. Both of these teams invite up-tempo play from the opposition. Interestingly, the Lakers allowed 93, 106 (aided by overtime), 99 and 96 field goal attempts over their last four games against the Grizzlies. Memphis was simply unable to take advantage of its wealth of scoring opportunities, running cold at the absolute worst time (the Grizzlies made good on 44 or fewer field goals in all six contests). I don't expect the Warriors to suffer the same fate. The ramped up offensively as the series went on against the Kings, knocking down 40 or more field goals and hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in four of the final five games in the opening round. In fact, Golden State has gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts in nine of its last 12 contests and has hoisted up 100 or more FG attempts on five different occasions since February 23rd. On the flip side, the Warriors have yielded 90 or more FG attempts to their opponents in an incredible 13 straight games. With the Lakers rounding into form offensively, making good on more than 40 field goals in 11 of their last 14 contests and getting off 90 or more FG attempts in 11 of their last 13 overall, I believe this game sets up as a potential track meet. Keep in mind, the Lakers - despite not always being at full strength - managed to knock down 40 or more field goals in all four regular season meetings with the Warriors. Meanwhile, Golden State had little trouble finding looks, hoisting up 99, 96, 105 and 91 FG attempts in those four matchups. In eight meetings between these two teams since the start of last season, the low water mark in terms of points scored for either team was 103 with both teams putting up more than 110 points in five of those eight contests. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Denver at 10:05 pm et on Monday.

Game 1 of this series managed to creep 'over' the total thanks to a tremendous offensive performance from the Nuggets. That contest marked only the second time all season that Denver hoisted up 100 or more field goal attempts in a game. I certainly feel that the Suns expected the Nuggets to employ a different, slower-paced offensive gameplan than they did in the series-opener so now it's on Phoenix to make the necessary adjustments defensively. Note that the Suns have only had eight previous what I would term 'outlier' poor defensive efforts - games in which they allowed 48 or more made field goals (as they did in Game 1 of this series). Following those contests, they've allowed 95, 128, 111, 121, 112, 106, 94 and 115 points in their next game, so a bit all over the place, but generally-speaking, they've allowed just north of 110 points per game in that situation, which is right around two points per game below their season average. All that is to say, I do expect Phoenix to bounce back from a defensive standpoint in Game 2. On the flip side, however, I think the Suns are still going to be in tough. Note that Denver has now held 16 of its last 19 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. Only four of their last 19 opponents have gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts and one of those was aided by overtime. The 'over' has now cashed in consecutive games involving the Nuggets for the first time since March 10th to 14th. Note that they've incredibly had just three 'over' streaks last three games or more this season with none of those lasting longer than four contests. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Sacramento at 3:30 pm et on Sunday.

We've seen three of the first six games go 'under' the total in this series including Game 6 on Friday, which reached just 217 points. A considerable adjustment has been made to the total for game 7 - this is the lowest total we've seen all series. I still feel the number is too high. Note that the Warriors have held an incredible 15 of their last 16 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals, despite allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in 13 of those contests. With that being said, Golden State will need to make adjustments here after De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk went off on Friday night - similar to the situation they were in following the series-opener (note that Game 2 totalled just 220 points with the Kings knocking down only 42 field goals). The Kings are a better defensive team than most give them credit for and they certainly showed that in Game 6 on Friday. Save for an awful defensive effort in a 123-116 loss here at home in Game 5, they've held up reasonably well at that end of the floor in this series, noting that they've limited the Warriors to 90 or fewer field goal attempts in four of six games. Sacramento has held 11 of its last 14 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Saturday.

The last time these two teams met on April 6th in Phoenix they combined to score 234 points. Not entirely due to that result but likely in part, we're working with a higher posted total this time around. I believe it will prove too high. Note that while both the Suns and Nuggets offenses were on point in the opening round, I've been impressed by the two teams' defensive play as well. Phoenix enters this game having held five straight and 13 of their last 14 opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals. That's despite allowing eight of those opponents to get off at least 90 field goal attempts. I don't anticipate the Nuggets looking to speed things up here. They've hoisted up 85 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last eight games. Denver has held eight straight and 17 of its last 18 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. The Nuggets really clamped down defensively against the Timberwolves in the opening round, limiting them to 81 or fewer FG attempts in four of five games (the only game where they didn't went to overtime). While both teams shot exceptionally well in the first meeting of the season back on Christmas Day, since then we've seen Denver hold Phoenix to just 39, 37 and 41 made field goals in three matchups. I realize the Suns are a different team with Kevin Durant joining the fold but were they really all that different in the opening round against the Clippers? In that series they knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in four of six games. Noting that the 'under' is 14-6 with the Nuggets seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 224.9 points in that situation, we'll look precisely that way in Game 1 on Saturday. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

We won with the 'over' in Games 1 and 4 in this series but were fortunate to cash the latter thanks only to overtime. The other three games all stayed 'under' the total and I expect a similar outcome on Friday as well. The Lakers are thriving in this series largely due to their defensive play. They've held the Grizzlies to 44 or fewer made field goals in all five games despite Memphis hoisting up at least 89 field goal attempts in every contest. In fact, Los Angeles has limited 10 of its last 13 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Since allowing the Lakers to knock down a whopping 49 field goals in Games 1, the Grizzlies have settled in defensively as well, holding Los Angeles to 41 or fewer made field goals in each of the last four contests. Only two of their last nine opponents have knocked down more than 44 field goals. While the Grizzlies average 113.7 points per game on the road this season, that number falls to 107.7 as a road underdog. The Lakers, meanwhile, have been a better defensive team at home this season, yielding 113.2 points per contest, while their offense has been only 0.1 point per game better than their season scoring average here at Crypto.com Arena. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Golden State at 8 pm et on Friday.

Consecutive 'over' results have helped keep this total reasonably high as we enter Game 6 of the series on Friday in San Francisco. The Warriors continue to play effective defense having now held 14 of their last 15 opponents to 44 made field goals or less. On the flip side, they're coming off a game in which they knocked down 50 field goals - a number they're unlikely to approach again on Friday. Keep in mind, the Kings have limited 11 of their last 13 opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals. We're talking about two teams that are playing at a reasonably fast pace but still managing to hold their form defensively. While the 'over' has cashed in each of the last two games, the Kings haven't seen three straight contests go 'over' the total since a four-game streak from March 18th to 24th. To find the last time the Warriors delivered three straight 'over' results you would have to go all the way back to February 2nd to 8th, when they also saw four consecutive games go 'over' the total. Take the under (8*).

Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Denver at 9 pm et on Tuesday.

This play sets up similarly to when we (successfully) backed the 'over' in Game 2 of this series last week. Remember, the series-opener was exceptionally low-scoring with just 189 total points scored but as expected, Game 2 was much higher-scoring, reaching into the low-230's. Note that the 'under' hasn't cashed in consecutive meetings in this series since back in May and October 2021. Since then, the two teams have matched up 11 times with the 'over' going 8-3. While we did win with the 'under' in Game 4 of this series on Sunday, it wasn't easy as overtime nearly toppled the total. Of course that contest reached only 192 points in regulation time. As I've noted previously in this series, the Timberwolves have been one of the most productive 'fast break' teams in the league this season - top-eight in the league in fast break points during the regular season, in fact. While injuries have played a factor, they've played far too slow in this series. However, with some life following Sunday's overtime win, I do expect Minnesota to play with 'house money' on Tuesday and push the pace more than we've seen. Karl-Anthony Towns' two highest-scoring games of this series have come in the last two contests. The sudden absence of Kyle Anderson means more scoring opportunities for the likes of Towns and Anthony Edwards, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. On the flip side, the Nuggets are heavily-favored for a reason here. Note that while they average 115.7 points per game overall this season, that number bumps up to 118.5 when coming off a road loss (22-game sample size), resulting in an average total of 229.4 points in that situation. While it was aided by overtime on Sunday, Denver has now knocked down more than 40 field goals in all four games in this series. Finally, we'll note that the 'over' is 22-10 with the Nuggets playing at home seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 233.3 points in that spot. In fact the 'over' is 58-36 with Denver coming off a loss over the same stretch and a long-term 176-139 when the Nuggets check in off an outright defeat as a favorite, which is the situation here. Take the over (10*).

First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Monday.

We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series last Sunday but have stayed idle from a totals perspective since with the 'under' cashing in the last two games. I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring affair than we saw on Saturday, when the Lakers prevailed by a 111-101 score. The Grizzlies have shot poorly in consecutive games, knocking down just 38 and 35 field goals. The pace was certainly there for a higher-scoring contest on Saturday as Memphis hoisted up 93 field goal attempts and Los Angeles got off 90. Note that the last time the Grizzlies were held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games was way back on February 5th and 7th. In their next game they went off for 49-of-84 shooting in a 128-point outburst against Minnesota. Prior to that they were held to 39 and 36 made field goals on December 25th and 27th, respectively, before knocking down 48 in a 119-point effort against Toronto. The week previous to that they were held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive affairs before connecting on 45 in a 125-point performance against Phoenix. You get the picture. The Lakers responded following a poor offensive showing in Game 2 by making good on 41-of-90 field goal attempts for 111 points on Saturday. Note that the Grizzlies have now allowed seven of their last eight and 12 of their last 14 opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. Neither team has been able to slow down its opposition with any sort of consistency with Memphis allowing 90 or more FG attempts in nine of its last 12 games and Los Angeles yielding 89 or more FG attempts in eight of its last 10 contests. We've now seen consecutive matchups in this series stay 'under' the total and that's notable as you would have to go back to late 2020-early 2021 to find the last time three straight meetings stayed 'under'. The last time we saw consecutive 'under' results in this series was on December 9th and 29th of 2021 and the next matchup resulted in a whopping 246 total points right here in Los Angeles. The Grizzlies average 116.5 points per game this season but that number rises to 117.1 when coming off a game in which they scored 105 points or less (17-game sample size), as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 228.6 points. Similarly, the Lakers average 116.8 points per game this season but that scoring average increases to 117.3 when coming off an 'under' result (39-game sample size), leading to an average total of 232.8 points in that spot. Finally, we'll note that you would have to go back to February 15th to March 3rd - when the Grizzlies posted an 0-5-1 o/u mark - to find the last time Memphis was involved in more than two 'under' results in a row. Meanwhile, the Lakers last posted a three-game 'under' streak from March 15th to 19th with the 'over' going 10-4 in their 14 games since. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Minnesota at 9:30 pm et on Sunday.

If the Timberwolves are going to extend this series back to Denver for Game 5 they're going to need to play a certain way on Sunday night in Minnesota and I think that involves effectively shortening proceedings by grinding it out and turning this into a slugfest. I say that because they can't expect to get much more from a banged-up Anthony Edwards than they did in Friday's loss as he poured in 36 points on 10-of-22 shooting from the field and 13-of-15 from the free throw line. Karl-Anthony Towns produced 27 points in that game as well, but again the T'Wolves still lost by nine points. Without the likes of Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels, not to mention Jaylen Nowell playing hurt, the T'Wolves just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with Denver. With that being said, it's rarely easy to close an opponent out and the Nuggets are likely to find that out here. Denver has of course dealt with its own injury issues with Nikola Jokic in particular still probably playing at less than 100%. It's worth noting that this will be the third game in five nights in this series. Denver has made a concerted effort to slow things down in this series, limiting the T'Wolves to 81, 79 and 79 field goal attempts while topping out at 90 FG attempts itself - that coming in the series-opener, which happened to be the lowest-scoring game of the series to date. We know that Minnesota is capable of stepping up defensively as it has limited the opposition to 41-of-88 shooting on average here at home this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 16-4 with the T'Wolves playing at home off an 'over' result this season, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 222.5 points in that situation. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We've seen a major adjustment to the total over the course of this series, and rightfully so as the first three games have stayed comfortably 'under' the total. With that being said, I expect a different story to unfold in this matinee affair on Sunday in Manhattan. It's not that the two teams played at a snail's pace in Game 3 on Friday - in fact it was played at a fairly frenetic tempo in the early going but both teams were simply ice cold from the field and three-point range in particular. Even the free throw line proved to be a difficult spot with the two teams combining to shoot 21-of-35 from the charity stripe (they've combined to knock down 36-of-47 free throw attempts on average this season). From beyond the arc, we did see the scoring pick up a bit in the second half in Game 3 with the two sides combining to make good on 17 threes, but that was on 66 attempts. They average 24-of-68 combined shooting from three point range this season. There's too much offensive talent on the floor to see another ugly shooting performance on Sunday. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 108-79 with the Cavaliers seeking revenge for a 20-point loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Knicks seem to have gained a boost following home wins this season, averaging 5.3 points more than their season scorning average, but also giving up 1.3 additional points per game, when coming off a win at Madison Square Garden, with the 'over' going 16-7 in those contests. We've now seen three straight games in this series stay 'under' the total, which is notable. The last time three consecutive matchups between these two teams stayed 'under' the total in the same season was back in the 2015-16 campaign. There was another three-game 'under' streak that spanned across two seasons in 2017 and only one of those contests stayed 'under' the total we're working with today. The next game following that streak totalled 232 points. I expect the Cavs in particular to make the necessary adjustments to punch back here but the Knicks are favored for a reason at home and their multi-dimensional offense is always a handful to defend here at MSG. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Miami at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

We've seen two exceptionally high-scoring games to open this series, totalling 247 and 260 points. Now we're heading into uncharted territory in this series, however, noting that the 'over' has cashed in each of the last four meetings, matching the longest 'over' streak since way back in 2007-08. That four-game 'over' streak ended with an extremely low-scoring 78-73 Heat victory, staying 'under' the total by 40+ points. While we're not going to see that type of defensive struggle here, I do think the total will prove too high. Giannis Antetokounmpo remains questionable to play for the Bucks. Regardless whether he's able to go, the incentive is there for the Heat to slow things down at home, where they've averaged 40 made field goals per game while giving up an identical 40. We've seen a shift from the Bucks defensively as they've made an effort to limit their opponents' possessions, unlike what we saw for much of the regular season. They've limited four of their last seven foes to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. The Heat have knocked down 50 and 45 field goals in the first two games of this series. Keep in mind, they've made good on 45 or more field goals in just six of their last 15 contests. In other words, I don't think their hot shooting is sustainable. The Bucks, meanwhile, made good on a whopping 53 field goals in Game 2. The previous three times they knocked down 50 or more field goals, they connected on just 39, 38 and 39 field goals in their next contest with the 'under' cashing in two of those three games. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 127-96 with the Heat playing the role of home underdog, as is the case here. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and New York at 8:30 pm et on Friday.

We won with the 'over' in these two teams' final regular season meeting back on March 31st - a game that totalled a whopping 246 total points. Since then, we've seen Games 1 and 2 of this playoff series stay comfortably 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold on Friday, however, as the scene shifts to Madison Square Garden for Game 3. Both defenses are terrific, that much we know. The offenses aren't too bad either though, even if the Knicks did turn in a brutal performance in Game 2. Keep in mind, Game 1 reached 198 total points despite both teams shooting poorly, knocking down a combined 73 field goals (they've combined to average 83 made field goals per game this season). Game 2's low-scoring result had a lot to do with the lopsided nature of the contest, with the Cavaliers racing ahead by 20 points before halftime and then effectively taking the air out of the basketball in the fourth quarter (they ran the shot clock down on nearly every possession in the final 7-8 minutes). Cleveland keyed on stopping Jalen Brunson on Tuesday after he scored 27 points in just 29 minutes in the series-opener. The Knicks supporting cast certainly didn't perform up to standards in Game 2 but I'm confident we'll see a solid bounce-back effort across the board here, including from Brunson as New York makes the necessary adjustments to find him more open looks. Note that Josh Hart was a virtual non-factor offensively in his 26 minutes as he played hurt with an ankle injury (he scored five points but averages double-figures this season). The extra day off between Games 2 and 3 should serve him well. On the flip side, Donovan Mitchell scored just 17 points in Game 2 - only the second time in the last nine games he contributed 30 points or less. Again, that had a lot to do with the lopsided nature of the game. Even if Darius Garland stays aggressive in Game 3, I still expect Mitchell to get his. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has not cashed in three straight meetings in this series since 2017. That stretch came across two seasons. To find the last time three consecutive matchups have stayed 'under' the total in the same season, you would have to go back to the 2015-16 campaign. Also note that in that most recent three-game series 'under' streak in 2017, only two of those contests stayed 'under' the total we're working with tonight. Finally, we'll note that while the Knicks average 117.3 points per game at home this season, that number bumps up to 120.3 ppg when listed as a home favorite, as is the case here. Better still, the 'over' is 13-5 with New York playing at home following an 'under' result, with the Knicks averaging 121.4 points per contest and those games totalling an average of 235.1 points. Take the over (8*).

Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Denver at 10 pm et on Wednesday.

We saw an incredibly low-scoring (by today's NBA standards) series-opener between these two teams on Sunday as the Nuggets cruised to a 109-80 victory. I certainly expect to see a positive response from the Timberwolves offensively on Wednesday. Note that Minnesota has scored 107, 112, 109, 123 and 119 points after being held under 100 points in its previous game this season. It's also worth mentioning that the T'Wolves have averaged 118.7 points per game when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season compared to their overall season scoring average of 115.2 points per game. After hoisting up only 81 field goal attempts despite trailing most of the way on Sunday, I expect the T'Wolves to make a concerted effort to push the pace here, noting they rank eighth in the league in fast break points per game this season. Of course, the Nuggets are favored by a generous helping of points for a reason. They've been considerably better offensively at home compared to on the road this season, averaging 119.1 points per game. They didn't have to be great offensively to win handily in Game 1 but I do think they'll get pushed a little more here. Note that they enter this game having knocked down more than 40 field goals in six straight and 15 of their last 17 games overall. Meanwhile, Minnesota hasn't had much success controlling its opponents' tempo, allowing eight of its last nine opponents to hoist up 90 or more field goal attempts. Take the over (10*).

Eastern Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Boston at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

Game 1 between these two teams on Saturday was an interesting affair that saw one quarter (the fourth) total only 42 points but another reach a whopping 70 points (the second). That contest ultimately cruised well below the total as both teams were inconsistent offensively. I expect a different story to unfold in Game 2 on Tuesday, however, as the Hawks look to punch back while the Celtics try to grab a 2-0 strangle-hold before the scene shifts to Atlanta. One thing is for sure, the Hawks are going to get their scoring opportunities. In four meetings in this series this season, Atlanta has hoisted up 101, 100, 97 and 98 field goal attempts. Saturday's game marked a low-water mark as the Hawks made good on just 42 of those attempts. It's highly unlikely we'll see them shoot as poorly as they did on Saturday from beyond the arc (5-of-29 on three-point attempts). The problem is, even if Atlanta is able to do a much better job of taking advantage of its opportunities offensively, the Celtics are in line for some positive regression offensively as well and aren't likely to take their foot off the gas the way they did in the second half on Saturday. After scoring 74 points in the first half, Boston produced a miserable 38 points in the second half, actually letting the Hawks back into the game in the fourth quarter. Jaylen Brown clearly struggled after re-aggravating the laceration on his hand while Jayson Tatum scored well below his season average with 25 points on 10-of-23 shooting. Even going down the line, guys like Al Horford and Malcolm Brogdon made only minimal offensive contributions (11 points combined). Given the Hawks have now allowed more than 40 made field goals in 22 of their last 24 games and 40 or more in 26 of their last 28 contests, the Celtics are well-positioned to go off here. While Boston is still a terrific defensive team, we have certainly witnessed a shift this season with it yielding far more scoring opportunities thanks in large part to playing at a faster pace. The C's enter this game having allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in eight of their last nine contests. On the flip side, they've hoisted up 88 or more FG attempts themselves in 11 of their last 12 games. The Hawks have seen their last two games stay 'under' the total. While they've recorded 'under' streaks lasting three games or more on five previous occasions this season, I think their totals are being over-adjusted at this point. For instance, their most recent three-game 'under' streak from March 26th to 31st saw all three contests total at least 231 points. Prior to that, a three-game 'under' streak from March 17th to 21st saw all three games reach at least 236 points. You get the idea. Take the over (10*).

Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Sacramento at 10 pm et on Monday.

The first game in this series breezed 'over' the total thanks to a parade to the free throw line with the two teams attempting a combined 59 shots from the charity stripe. Even with that in mind, they still 'only' eclipsed the total we're working with on Monday by nine points. Note that the 'over' has now cashed in each of the Warriors last two games. They haven't posted three straight 'over' results since the first week of February and even during that stretch they didn't see three consecutive games go 'over' the total we're working with here. While neither team is known for its defense, it's worth noting that the Warriors have held 11 straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals while the Kings have limited five straight and eight of their last nine foes to that number or less. So in a sense we are dealing with a somewhat limited ceiling for the two offenses here. I certainly expect the Warriors to make some adjustments as they look to contain Malik Monk in particular after he went off in Game 1. On the flip side, Golden State could be without Jordan Poole for this game after he was limited due to injury in the series-opener. Gary Payton Jr. saw extended floor time with Poole struggling on Saturday with the former being more of a key defender than an offensive contributor. While the Warriors did shoot just 16-of-50 from three-point range on Saturday, that's not necessarily unexpected as they average 16 made threes per game on the road while the Kings have held the opposition to just 13 makes per game from beyond the arc here at home. Finally, I'll point out that we haven't seen consecutive matchups in this series go 'over' the total over the last 10 meetings. The last time that did occur was back in January and March of 2021. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Memphis at 3 pm et on Sunday.

The Lakers were involved in an incredibly low-scoring game against the Timberwolves in the Play-In Tournament - a contest that reached only 210 total points despite being aided by overtime. Here, I expect a different story to unfold as they open the first round against the Grizzlies on Sunday afternoon. Memphis was a shell of its former self defensively down the stretch and I'm not convinced we see it simply 'flip the switch' here. The Grizzlies check in having allowed 10 of their last 11 opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. Of those 11 opponents, six made good on 44 or more field goals. On the flip side, Memphis found its rhythm offensively, knocking down at least 40 field goals in 14 of its last 15 contests. Since March 15th, we've seen the Grizzlies post consecutive 'under' results only once (I point that out as their most recent game did stay 'under' the total) and only one of those two contests stayed 'under' the total we're working with on Sunday. The Lakers had an off shooting night against the T'Wolves last time out but were in line for some regression after making good on 45 or more field goals in each of their previous seven games. Defensively, the Lakers had yielded 40 or more made field goals in an incredible 16 straight games before holding the T'Wolves to only 36 on Tuesday (note that Minnesota was severely limited offensively in that game with Anthony Edwards banged-up and rendered ineffective and Rudy Gobert sidelined due to suspension). Los Angeles has allowed an average of 45-of-94 shooting on the road this season. Take the over (8*).

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and New Orleans at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday.

Both of these teams enter this play-in matchup on the heels of consecutive 'under' results but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday night in New Orleans. The Thunder have been relentlessly pushing the pace regardless who has been in or out of the lineup in recent weeks, hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in 11 of their last 15 games and 92 or more in 10 of those contests. Unfortunately it has come at the expense of their defensive play it seems as they've allowed 12 of their last 13 opponents to knock down 40 or more field goals. While not known for their offensive prowess, the Pelicans appear well-positioned to take advantage having made good on 40 or more field goals in 14 of their last 18 games overall. While New Orleans got into this play-in tournament thanks in large part to its terrific defense down the stretch, we did see a three-game lull in which it yielded 42, 46 and 50 made field goals earlier this month. It followed that up by holding the Knicks and T'Wolves to just 38 and 39 made field goals in its final two regular season contests but those two opponents still managed to score 105 and 113 points. The Pelicans figure to have their hands full here, noting that the Thunder have averaged an impressive average of 124.5 points per game when coming off four or five ATS losses in their last six games this season, as is the case here. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-3 in that situation, resulting in an average total of 243.7 points scored. Take the over (10*).

Atlantic Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Boston at 7:40 pm et on Friday.

We saw a very low-scoring game by today's NBA standards between these two teams on this same floor two nights ago as the Celtics scrapped their way to a 97-93 victory in a tough back-to-back situation. Here, I expect a lot more offense as the two teams get ready for the postseason but perhaps lack defensive intensity with little to play for at this point. The Raptors will certainly want to get back on track offensively after a dismal showing on Wednesday. They shot 6-of-33 from three-point range in that contest, noting that they average 11 made threes per game this season. The pace was still there as they hoisted up 90 field goal attempts in the loss. Note that they've gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts in five of their last seven games overall. The Celtics are coming off consecutive poor offensive performances, including a 38-of-91 showing from the field in Philadelphia on Tuesday. Like the Raptors, the Celtics have continued to push the pace here late in the season, hoisting up 89 or more FG attempts in each of their last eight contests. While Boston is thought of as an elite defensive team, that hasn't necessarily been the case lately as it has allowed five of its last six opponents to get off 90 or more FG attempts and allows an average of 42 made field goals per game at home this season. The C's could be without two of their top defenders on Friday with Derrick White and Marcus Smart questionable to play as they employ some 'load management' in the late going. Take the over (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Thursday.

Both of these teams have struggled at the best of times defensively and neither has much incentive to ratchet up the defensive intensity for Thursday's 'meaningless' matchup in San Antonio. With that being said, both teams are coming off 'under' results last time out and I feel that's affording us a very reasonable total to work with on Thursday. The Blazers have actually found some rhythm offensively despite missing so many key contributors. They've knocked down 40, 43 and 42 field goals over their last three games and have been comfortable pushing the pace more than they had been previously, hoisting up 85, 93 and 97 field goal attempts in those most recent three contests. They'll have a prime opportunity to build on those encouraging performances in San Antonio on Thursday as the Spurs have been sieve-like defensively, allowing 43 or more made field goals in an incredible 12 straight and 15 of their last 16 games overall. The only reason they gave up 'only' 43 made field goals last time out was due to the lopsided nature of their game against the Suns (Phoenix attempted only 89 field goals). In what projects as a much closer affair here, we can anticipate the Blazers getting well into the 90's in terms of FG attempts. The Spurs had their streak of three straight games knocking down at least 42 field goals snapped last time out. They'll take a major step down in class after facing the Suns in that matchup, however. Portland has allowed six of its last seven opponents to make good on at least 41 field goals despite four of those foes getting off 87 or fewer FG attempts. Note that the Spurs have hoisted up 90 or more FG attempts in seven straight and 10 of their last 11 games overall. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday.

This is the highest total on Tuesday's NBA board (at the time of writing) but I don't believe it is warranted. Oklahoma City checks in off a high-scoring 'over' result against the Suns on Sunday. Keep in mind, the Thunder haven't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since March 16th and 19th. They were actually held to just 36-of-88 from the field in that double-digit loss on Sunday and have knocked down 42 or less field goals in nine of their last 10 contests. On the flip side, they've limited three of their last five opponents to 82 made field goals or fewer. The Warriors dropped a 112-110 decision in Denver on Sunday. They've allowed each of their last seven opponents to knock down 44 or fewer made field goals despite four of those foes hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts. The 'over' has cashed in just four of their last 12 games overall. I understand the logic behind the lofty total here, noting that each of the previous three meetings between these two teams this season totalled at least 248 points. I simply feel we'll see a reversal of that trend here, noting that the Warriors have posted a 12-24 o/u record when playing at home off a loss over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average total of just 221.8 points. Take the under (8*).

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Houston at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

Both of these teams enter Sunday's contest riding three-game 'under' streaks but I look for a reversal of that trend here. Houston has had a tougher time just getting shots off, let alone knocking them down lately, hoisting up 87 or fewer field goal attempts in four of its last five games after eclipsing that mark five of its previous six contests. The outlier was a game in Brooklyn where the Rockets shot 46-of-98 from the field but still scored 'only' 114 points. Defensively, I like the fact that Houston has at least been able to limit its opponents scoring opportunities somewhat lately, allowing fewer than 90 field goal attempts in four straight and eight of its last nine games overall. Los Angeles has displayed a different offensive dynamic since Lebron James returned to the lineup. The Lakers have a lot of mouths to feed offensively but its been Lebron that has absorbed the majority of the opportunities. Note that Los Angeles has shot 50% or better from the field in three straight games, knocking down exactly 45 field goals in back-to-back contests heading into this one. It's not as if the Lakers have been playing at a break-neck pace - they've gotten off 90 or more FG attempts just three times in their last 11 games, topping out at 91 over that stretch (in a game where they scored 'only' 116 points leading to a total of 227 against Oklahoma City). Discipline has been key defensively as Los Angeles hasn't allowed more than 118 points in any of its last 11 games despite all 11 of those opponents knocking down 40 or more field goals. The Lakers allowed 114 points the last time they faced the Rockets on March 15th but that was on a blistering 47-of-89 shooting and that contest still stayed 'under' the total with only 224 points scored. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and New York at 6:10 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the 'over' in the Knicks stunning rout of the Cavaliers in Cleveland on Friday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as New York returns home to host an undermanned Wizards squad on Sunday. Washington is coming off consecutive 'over' results but both of those contests were played at home, where the Wiz have played at a much faster tempo lately. Note that Washington has gotten off just 81, 84, 76, 83 and 86 field goal attempts in its last five road games. In those last two contests played at home the Wiz hoisted up 99 and 105 FG attempts. I mentioned Washington has posted consecutive 'over' results and that's notable as it hasn't recorded three straight 'overs' since February 28th to March 4th and that streak was aided by an overtime game against Toronto. To find the last time the Wiz were involved in three straight 'over' results not aided by overtime you would have to go all the way back to January 3rd to 9th. Their longest 'over' streak of the season lasted only four games and that came way back in November. The Knicks exploded offensively on Friday but keep in mind they're just one game removed from knocking down only 38 field goals, albeit on just 76 FG attempts, against Miami. In fact, New York has been limited to 42 or fewer made field goals in nine of its last 12 games overall. Defensively, the Knicks have held seven straight opponents to 47 or fewer FG attempts. While New York is 4-2 in the last six meetings in this series, it hasn't eclipsed 117 points in any of those six contests. Take the under (8*).

Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Connecticut at 8:45 pm et on Saturday.

Miami has now seen each of its last three games go 'over' the total, matching its longest such streak of the season. The last time it came off three consecutive 'over' results, its next contest totalled only 134 points in a narrow loss to Duke back on January 21st. Last time out, the Canes couldn't miss from the field (they ended up shooting 59%) in a come-from-behind win over Texas. The Longhorns inexplicably decided to run with the Canes and did find some success offensively, knocking down 30-of-60 field goal attempts themselves but it wasn't enough. I don't think we'll see Connecticut push the pace nearly as much here, noting it ranks outside the top-200 in the country in terms of adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). While the Huskies have been red hot offensively, I don't think their best chance at winning this game comes by getting involved in a back-and-forth track meet with Miami. The Canes are certainly in line for some regression offensively after scoring 85+ points and knocking down 34, 31 an 29 field goals over their last three games. Keep in mind, this is the same team that narrowly avoided the upset against Drake in the opening round, scoring only 63 points on 17-of-56 shooting in that contest. Lost in UConn's tremendous run offensively is the fact that it has been playing exceptional defense. You would have to go back nine games, all the way to February 25th against St. John's, to find the last time it allowed an opponent to make good on more than 24 field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-1 with Miami playing away from home after allowing 80 points or more in its previous game over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 134.9 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 7-1 with UConn playing away from home after winning three or more games in a row ATS this season, which is also the situation here, resulting in an average total of 132.4 points in that spot. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

The Kings scored 120 points without barely breaking a sweat in their 120-80 win here in Portland two nights ago. If this game is even remotely more competitive (as I expect it to be), there's a good chance we see Sacramento absolutely go off offensively. The Blazers truly can't be any worse than they were in Wednesday's game. On a positive note, they did get off 93 field goal attempts so the scoring opportunities were there and should continue to be there on Friday, noting that the Kings have allowed 91, 88, 92, 89, 91, 86 and 93 field goal attempts over their last seven games, still yielding 119 points in the lone outlier in which they held the T'Wolves to 86. Prior to Wednesday's contest, Sacramento had allowed six consecutive opponents to make good on at least 41 field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 12-4 with the Blazers coming off a loss by 15 points or more this season, resulting in an average total of 234.7 points scored in that situation. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Cleveland at 7:40 pm et on Friday.

Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results last time out and in the case of the Cavs, back-to-back 'unders'. Cleveland could be missing Jarrett Allen for a second straight game which is critical to their defensive play and rebounding in particular. I suspect if he misses the Knicks will afford themselves a great deal more scoring opportunities after being limited to only 76 field goal attempts against Miami on Wednesday. Of course, New York has its own injury issues with Julius Randle now sidelined. The Knicks undoubtedly have the scoring depth to pick up the slack, however. They'll need to 'keep up' with the Cavs here, noting that Cleveland has made good on 40 or more field goals in eight of its last nine games with the only exception coming in a blowout win over the Rockets where it eased off the gas in the fourth quarter (we won with the 'under' in that game). While the Knicks did limit the Heat to just 35-of-79 shooting on Wednesday, they had previously allowed five straight and 10 of their last 11 opponents to knock down at least 40 field goals. This has been a low-scoring series recently with the last two meetings staying 'under' the total. It's worth noting though that we haven't seen three or more consecutive matchups between these two teams stay 'under' the total since 2017-18. Take the over (8*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Milwaukee at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

The Bucks check in off consecutive high-scoring affairs in road wins over the Pistons and Pacers but should face a great deal more resistance in this back-to-back spot against a rested Celtics squad. Boston is coming off a high-scoring game of its own as it inexplicably allowed 130 points in a rout at the hands of the short-handed Wizards in Washington two nights ago. Perhaps that result was to be expected after the Celtics were lulled into a sense of complacency following three straight blowout wins. Here, I look for Boston to tighten things up, noting that it has still held five of its last seven opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. While you wouldn't know it by their last few games, the Bucks can play some defense, especially here at home where they've limited the opposition to 42-of-93 shooting on average this season. In games that project as ultra-competitive (with the line between +3 and -3 as is the case here at the time of writing), the Bucks have posted a 17-29 o/u record over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 223.4 points. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll take advantage of the reasonable total being offered here thanks to the Kings coming off consecutive 'under' results and the Blazers riding a three-game 'under' streak into Wednesday's contest. The Kings are healthy again and figure to go off offensively against a Blazers squad that has been matador-like since losing the bulk of its starters to injuries, allowing 48, 41 and 49 made field goals over their last three games. The outlier over that stretch came in a contest where they still allowed 118 points against the Thunder. While Portland has unsurprisingly struggled to generate consistent offense without the likes of Damian Lillard, Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons, there is reason for optimism entering this matchup. The Kings have been vulnerable defensively in recent games, lit up for 46, 49, 48, 47 and 44 made field goals over their last five contests. There's a fairly high probability they'll struggle to ramp up the defensive intensity in this uninspiring matchup when you consider Portland could only muster 90 points against New Orleans last time out. I simply feel this total will prove too low noting the Blazers have seen more than three consecutive games stay 'under' the total only once previously this season with that four-game 'under' streak coming back in late-December. Take the over (8*).

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

It was a struggle for the Lakers to just get shots off, let alone knock them down in Lebron James' return to the lineup on Sunday against Chicago. Los Angeles hoisted up only 75 field goal attempts in that double-digit loss, yet the game still found its way 'over' the total. It's worth noting that the Lakers haven't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since way back on February 4th and 7th. They've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in four of their last six games, getting off 78 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five contests. The Bulls are coming off an uncharacteristically bad defensive effort against the Clippers in the back half of a back-to-back on Monday. Perhaps they were a little too 'fat and happy' after winning the first two games on their road trip in lopsided fashion. Here, I expect Chicago to lock back in defensively, noting that it has still held 16 of its last 22 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. On the flip side, it's not easy to speed up the Bulls offense, noting that even in a game where they trailed most of the way against the Clippers on Monday, they still hoisted up only 82 FG attempts. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 16-4 with the Lakers playing on the road off a double-digit home loss as a favorite, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 24-14 with the Bulls coming off a loss this season and 15-6 when that defeat came on the road. Take the under (10*).

NIT Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah Valley and UAB at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday.

We missed with the 'over' in Utah Valley's 'upset' win over Cincinnati in the quarter-final round of the NIT last week as that contest stayed just 'under' the total thanks to a miserable shooting performance from the Bearcats (27-of-79 from the field). I think it's notable that the Wolverines allowed Cincinnati to hoist up just shy of 80 field goal attempts in that game. They figure to face a similar up-tempo approach from UAB here, noting that the Blazers have gotten off 63, 71, 66 and 64 FG attempts over their last four games yet somehow all four of those contests stayed 'under' the total, only serving to provide us with a reasonably-priced total here. In fact, UAB ranks 32nd in the nation in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom, just 10 spots ahead of Utah Valley. The Blazers have allowed each of their last five opponents to get off at least 60 FG attempts and Utah Valley is well-positioned to take advantage. The Wolverines have knocked down 27, 28, 40, 26, 31, 34, 33 and 25 field goals over their last eight contests with the two outliers coming in games where they still scored 72 and 74 points. Utah Valley comes off that 'under' result against Cincinnati but hasn't posted consecutive 'unders' over its last six contests. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday.

The Bulls are as locked-in defensively as any team in the NBA right now having held five straight opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. They figure to continue their strong play at that end of the floor here as they take on the Paul George-less Clippers on Monday. Since losing George to injury last week, the Clips have played twice, splitting those two games and getting off just 84 and 75 field goal attempts. They actually shot considerably well in both contests but I don't expect a similar story to unfold here. Los Angeles is favored for a reason in this spot, though, with Chicago unlikely to shoot the lights out the way it has in the first two games of its current road trip. Despite scoring 124 and 118 points over their last two games, the Bulls have still gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in three straight contests. I can't help but think Los Angeles will be set on keeping the pace to a minimum here after allowing the Pelicans to shoot 51-of-96 from the field in Saturday's blowout loss. Note that the only previous meeting between these two teams this season totalled just 211 points as the Clips won (and covered) in Chicago, limiting the Bulls to only 77 FG attempts in that victory. We're working with a lower posted total this time around, but I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Rockets shot a blistering 51.6% and 54% from the field in consecutive losses in Memphis earlier this week but I expect nothing of the sort as they continue their road trip (and likely their losing streak) in Cleveland on Sunday. There's really been nothing special about the Rockets offense lately, they simply had a couple of strong performances against an opponent that didn't necessarily take them all that seriously (in the first game of the two-game set in particular). Note that Houston has still been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in three of its last seven contests. The Cavs rallied for a win in Brooklyn last time out - their third win in a row. Note that Cleveland has hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in eight straight games. Even in their most recent game, where they trailed much of the way and needed to stage a late-game comeback, they still weren't all that interested in really pushing the pace. Defensively, the Cavs are locked-in right now having held three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals and nine of their last 11 foes to 82 or fewer field goal attempts. The only previous time they faced the Rockets this season they yielded just 76 FG attempts in a 113-95 road victory. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 11-3 with the Rockets coming off consecutive 'over' results this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 221.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 42-29 with Cleveland coming off an 'over' result over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of only 213.9 points. Take the under (8*).

Elite Eight Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Texas at 5:05 pm et on Sunday.

While I can understand the logic behind this total sitting in the high-140's on Sunday, I believe it will prove too high. Miami comes off consecutive 'over' results. It hasn't seen three straight games go 'over' the total since January 11th to 16th - the only previous time this season it produced such a streak. Texas had its seven-game 'under' streak snapped in its win over Xavier on Friday. The Longhorns haven't posted consecutive 'over' results since February 6th and 11th. Texas has been on fire offensive, knocking down 31 or more field goals in each of its last four contests. It figures to be tested here, however, noting that while Miami's offense has impressed, it's defensive play has perhaps been even better, holding all three opponents in this tournament to 26 or fewer made field goals. Despite allowing Alabama to get off 64 field goal attempts on Friday, it still allowed just 24 made field goals. The Hurricanes have made good on 29 or more field goals in four of their last five games overall. Keep in mind, Texas hasn't allowed an opponent to reach that number since way back on February 18th against Oklahoma. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-2 with the Canes playing away from home after scoring 75 points or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 140 points in that spot. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Connecticut and Gonzaga at 8:45 pm et on Saturday.

While I'm not a big proponent of backing the 'over' in the Elite Eight after the Sweet 16 proved so high-scoring (six of eight games went 'over' the total), I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set this total high enough. Gonzaga is approaching uncharted territory defensively right now as it has matched a season-high by holding eight straight opponents to 30 made field goals of fewer. The only previous time it reached that mark it allowed 81 points on 31 made field goals in a game that totalled 169 points against BYU in mid-February. Note that the Bulldogs have allowed more than 30 made field goals on seven previous occasions this season and those contests have totalled 167, 172, 190, 199, 157, 169 and 185 points. Connecticut figures to test the Zags defense here, noting that the Huskies are arguably the hottest offensive team still playing in this tournament. Since February 22nd, they've knocked down 30 or more field goals in five of nine games with the low-water mark being 25 made field goals in a game where they still scored 71 points. Defensively, UConn has also been on point but has certainly benefited from the opposition it has faced in this tourney. First, it went against an overmatched MAAC squad in Iona. Then came a matchup with slow-paced Saint Mary's and finally an injury-plagued Arkansas squad that looked lost after the first few minutes on Thursday. Here, I do think we'll see the Zags give the Huskies a stiff test and I think that lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the Nets 'over' in the front half of their two-game set with the Cavs earlier this week (the second matchup went 'over' the total as well). I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as Brooklyn heads to Miami to face the surging Heat on Saturday, however. Note that the Nets squeezed about as much as they could out of their offense last time out but still produced 'only' 114 points in a narrow loss to Cleveland. Brooklyn has now been held to 38 or fewer made field goals in four of its last five games. On a positive note, the Nets have topped out at 42 made field goals allowed over their last four contests, limiting all four of those opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The Heat have settled back into their preferred style and that involves a methodical pace as they've hoisted up 82 or fewer FG attempts in five straight games. Only twice over that stretch did they manage to knock down more than 38 field goals. On the flip side, you would have to go back four games to find the last time Miami allowed an opponent to get off more than 82 FG attempts. Take the under (8*).

Sweet 16 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Houston at 7:15 pm et on Friday.

We won with the 'over' in Houston's second round rout of Auburn and also cashed the same play in Miami's stunning lopsided win over Indiana. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in as the Hurricanes and Cougars meet in Sweet 16 action on Friday, however. As a considerable underdog, I think Miami will have a keen interest in limiting the number of possessions in this one. Keep in mind, the Canes check in sporting a defense that ranks outside of the top-100 in the country in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) not to mention the fact they're up against a Houston squad that sits an impressive eighth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. Of course, the Cougars should be easily convinced to keep this one at a methodical pace, noting that they rank 342nd (out of 364 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Only one team remaining in this tournament ranks higher than Houston in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency and that's Alabama. Note that while the Cougars did hang 81 points on Auburn last time out, they needed 60 field goal attempts to get there. Houston has still gotten off 57 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last seven games. Meanwhile, Miami is almost certainly in for a letdown here after connecting on 34-of-70 field goal attempts in its rout of Indiana. The Canes jumped ahead by a considerable margin early and were able to dictate the pace from there. I don't anticipate them being nearly as successful in doing so against Kelvin Sampson's Cougars. Note that only one of Houston's last six opponents and two of its last nine have managed to knock down more than 20 field goals. While Miami's defense isn't on nearly the same level, it has proven capable of stepping up. A dominant defensive effort against Duke back in February comes to mind. Also note that the Canes have at least limited four of their last five foes to 27 or fewer made field goals. Finally, I'll point out that Miami hasn't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since late January-early February. The same goes for Houston. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

The last time these two teams met in January in San Antonio we saw a closing total of 240 points. That game failed to reach that number but did surpass the total we're working with in Friday's rematch. Of course, injuries are playing a big role in the adjustment of this total. San Antonio has been flooring a makeshift roster on any given night due to injury (tanking) management. Meanwhile, the Wizards are without two of their best offensive threats in Kyle Kuzma and Bradley Beal. With that being said, I think we see a 'sling-shot' effect from the Wiz offense here. They've actually knocked down 41, 42 and 44 field goals over their last three games with the latter performance coming without Kuzma and Beal. They only managed to reach 104 points in a loss to the Nuggets last time out as Denver led most of the way and was able to limit the pace (Washington got off only 84 field goal attempts). While we haven't seen it lately, I do think Washington would prefer to go up-tempo and will undoubtedly be afforded that opportunity against a hapless Spurs defense that has yielded 95 or more field goal attempts to the opposition in five of its last seven games. On the flip side, San Antonio is coming off consecutive dismal offensive showings, scoring just 84 and 94 points in blowout losses in New Orleans and Milwaukee. Note that the Spurs are expected to have a number of key offensive contributors back in the lineup on Friday, including Keldon Johnson. San Antonio has hoisted up 93 or more FG attempts in three of its last four contests while the Wizards have allowed 48, 48, 43 and 42 made field goals over their last four games. Finally, I'll point out that while the Spurs enter on a three-game 'under' streak, they've yet to see four straight contests stay 'under' the total this season with the 'over' going 3-0 on the previous three occasions where they followed three 'unders' in a row. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Arkansas and Connecticut at 7:15 pm et on Thursday.

We won with the 'under' in Arkansas' SEC Tournament swan song against Texas A&M two weeks ago and since then, the Razorbacks have rattled off two more 'under' results in NCAA Tournament action. I look for that three-game 'under' streak to come to an end on Thursday, however, as the Hogs take on Connecticut in a Sweet 16 matchup. Arkansas staged an improbable upset of Kansas last Saturday despite getting just four points combined on 1-of-10 shooting from pro prospects Nick Smith Jr. and Anthony Black. Smith contributed only four points in the first two tourney games. Of course, he hasn't necessarily been the same player since returning from a knee injury that has plagued him for much of the season but the fact is, he scored in double-figures in seven straight games leading up to this tournament so there's reason to be confident that he can chip in a whole lot more here on the second weekend of the tournament. Black re-aggravated a foot injury against Kansas but all indications are that he'll play here. He's been playing through the pain and entered the Kansas game having scored in double-figures in four of the last five contests. Again, expect more out of him offensively in this one even if the foot injury does limit his quickness (I believe it's more of a concern at the defensive end of the floor). On the flip side, Connecticut has been one of the hottest offensive teams in the country in recent weeks, knocking down 26 or more field goals in eight straight games and scoring 87 or more points on four occasions in the last month alone. The Huskies were able to bully overmatched Iona and Saint Mary's offenses last weekend but I expect them to have their hands full here. Note that Arkansas, even with its key injuries, has made good on more than 20 field goals in an incredible 19 of its last 20 games overall. Defensively, the Hogs have allowed six of their last seven opponents to knock down at least 24 field goals with the lone exception coming in their NCAA Tourney opener against Illinois - a game that still reached 136 total points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with UConn coming off a game in which it allowed 55 points or less this season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 154 points. The 'over' is also 17-8 with the Huskies having held consecutive opponents to 65 points or less over the last two seasons, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of 145.1 points in that spot. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Thursday.

Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results but neither of those games necessarily saw the pace to warrant those outcomes. Last night, both the Knicks and Heat shot the lights out in New York's 127-120 loss in Miami. New York will have a difficult time reproducing that performance here, noting that it averages 'only' 110.7 points per game when playing the second of back-to-back nights over the last two seasons (those 22 contests have totalled an average of 217.9 points). After getting off 90 or more field goal attempts in three of four games from March 5th to 11th, the Knicks have hoisted up 88 or fewer FG attempts in each of their last five contests. The Magic were involved in a relatively high-scoring game against the struggling Wizards two nights ago. Neither team got off more than 83 FG attempts in that one. Orlando has been limited to 86 or fewer FG attempts in three of its last four contests. To say that the Magic have struggled offensively against the Knicks going back to the start of last season would be an understatement. They've knocked down just 37, 36, 30 and 39 field goals in the last four meetings, topping out at 104 points in those games. Take the under (8*).

NIT Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Utah Valley State at 9 pm et on Wednesday.

We saw a couple of predictably low-scoring affairs in NIT quarter-final action last night but I expect a much different story to unfold as Cincinnati and Utah Valley State do battle in the second half of Wednesday's double-header. Utah Valley State succeeded in speeding up a favored Colorado team that probably would have preferred a slower tempo (with its 30th-ranked defense) on Sunday, pulling away for a convincing 81-69 victory in Boulder. I don't think the Wolverines will have any difficult coaxing red hot Cincinnati into an up-tempo affair here, noting that the Bearcats rank 114th (out of 364 Division I teams) in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. The difference is, Cincinnati can take advantage of that fast pace, noting that it ranks an impressive 46th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). The Bearcats have incredibly knocked down at least 29 field goals in five of their last six games with the lone outlier coming in their conference championship game against Houston - one of, if not the best defensive team in the country. For their part, the Wolverines enter red hot offensively as well having made good on 27, 28, 40, 26, 31, 34 and 33 field goals over their last seven contests. Cincinnati has actually seen each of its last four games stay 'under' the total which means it is approaching uncharted territory, noting its longest previous 'under' streak this season lasted five games, that coming back in January. We're starting to see the totals creep downward as a result of the Bearcats 'under' streak, noting that their last two games saw closing numbers of 155 and 150. I believe tonight's total will prove too low. Take the over (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

This is the lowest total on Tuesday's NBA board and I believe it will prove too low. The Nets have seen each of their last three contests stay 'under' the total, thanks in large part to their own putrid offensive production. I think they're a far better offensive team than they've shown lately, however. They curiously waved the white flag late in Sunday's game against the Nuggets but I look for them to respond favorably here, noting that they're perhaps catching the Cavs at the right time with Cleveland having allowed five of its last six opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. The absence of Jarrett Allen has contributed to that and he is expected to return here, but I still think the Nets offense can do some damage, noting that they're more of an outside shooting team, not likely to force much into the teeth of the Cavs defense inside. Cleveland's offense is likely to go off in this spot. The Cavs have made good on 40 or more field goals in five straight and 13 of their last 14 games overall. Meanwhile, the Nets defense has proven vulnerable, allowing 44, 48, 45, 45, 32 and 42 field goals over their last six contests. The outlier over that stretch came last week against Sacramento with the Kings struggling to find their shooting legs in the second of back-to-backs off a last-second win in Chicago the night previous. The Nets are approaching uncharted territory off three straight 'under' results here, noting that their longest 'under' streak since their pre-trade deadline dealings lasted four games but two of those four contests surpassed the total we're working with tonight. You would have to go back six matchups in this series to find the last time the two teams didn't at least get into the 220's. Take the over (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday.

We got the result we wanted from the T'Wolves on Saturday as they scored only 107 points in a lopsided loss in Toronto, clearly reeling after Anthony Edwards suffered a scary injury the night previous in Chicago. Shockingly, Edwards was out of the walking boot on Sunday and is listed a day-to-day. He's unlikely to play on Monday but I do expect the T'Wolves offense to bounce back just the same. Minnesota has averaged an impressive 121.4 points per game when playing on the road in the second half of the season over the last two seasons and the 'over' is an incredible 14-1 when it plays on the road in a three-in-four situation over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 247.0 points in that spot. The Knicks are red hot off three straight wins, knocking down a consistent 42, 42 and 41 field goals over that stretch. They only figure to get stronger in Jalen Brunson's second game back from injury on Monday. Note that the Knicks have averaged an impressive 122.6 points per game with the 'over' going 14-6 when listed as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season. New York is a good defensive team but I'm not convinced it is elite in that department, having allowed at least 42 made field goals in six of its last seven games. The Knicks haven't been stronger defensively at home compared to on the road by any considerable margin this season, allowing 112.1 points per contest at MSG compared to their season scoring average allowed of 112.2 points per game. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Indiana at 8:40 pm et on Sunday.

Both of these teams saw their first round games stay 'under' the total and we won with the 'under' in Indiana's double-digit victory over Kent State. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'over' as the Hoosiers take on Miami in the second round on Sunday. It's unlikely the Hurricanes will shoot as poorly as they did in their tournament opener. They knocked down only 17-of-56 field goal attempts in a come-from-behind win over Drake. They had a much larger margin for error against the Missouri Valley Conference champs than they will against Indiana on Sunday. Keep in mind, Miami does still rank 12th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and prior to Friday's contest had made good on 25 or more field goals in an incredible 13 straight games. Indiana certainly checks all the boxes defensively, but I'm not about to consider it elite in that department, sitting 44th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. You would have to go all the way back to January 31st to find the last time the Hoosiers held an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals. On the clip side, Indiana is one of the hottest offensive teams in the tournament having made good on 31, 25, 28, 27, 31 and 29 field goals over its last six games. Miami isn't stopping anyone, ranking 114th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Prior to Friday's game, the Hurricanes had allowed 27 or more made field goals in eight straight contests. I realize that this court in Albany has been a nightmare for shooters as a whole but that didn't stop UConn and Iona from combining to score 150 points so I do believe a high-scoring result is well within the realm of possibility here. Take the over (8*).

Non-Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Sunday.

While the Bucks always garner plenty of attention, I'm not sure many are paying close attention to the style they're employing right now. It's quite fascinating actually. Milwaukee has allowed seven straight opponents to get off at least 95 field goal attempts with five of those foes hoisting up 100+. The Raptors aren't likely to shy away from an up-tempo affair here as they're feeling it, winners of three games in a row having gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts in five straight contests. While Toronto has posted terrific defensive numbers during its current three-game winning streak, it's worth noting that those victories came against a reeling Nuggets squad, the Thunder who were in a difficult back-to-back spot and the T'Wolves without Anthony Edwards and also in a back-to-back situation. Also note that all three of those games came at home. There's no denying the Raps are red hot offensively. They've made good on 46, 49, 47 and 48 field goals over their last four games. The last time these two teams matched up on this same floor in January we saw 141 first half points in a game that finished north of 250. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Washington at 8:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Kings have seen the first two games of their current road trip stay 'under' the total but I look for a reversal of that trend on Saturday as they stop in Washington to face the Wizards, who find themselves in a back-to-back spot off last night's blowout loss in Cleveland. The Wizards were a virtual no-show last night, knocking down only 35-of-76 field goal attempts in the 23-point loss. Washington's defense has regressed considerably lately as it has allowed more than 40 made field goals in five of its last six games. Sacramento has inexplicably shot poorly over its last two games but I do expect it to 'get right' here. Note that while Washington put forth an abysmal offensive effort against an elite Cleveland defense last night, it has knocked down 46, 47, 43 and 44 field goals over its last four home games. Take the over (8*).

Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Auburn and Houston at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

While they'll have to work to do so, I think Bruce Pearl's Auburn Tigers can speed the snail's paced Houston Cougars up in Saturday's second round matchup. Since the Tigers ugly 46-43 loss at Tennessee back in early February we've seen the 'over' go 6-4 in their last 10 games. They've hoisted up at least 62 field goal attempts in six of those 10 contests as well and the four games where they didn't still totalled 152, 140, 149 and 149 points. Auburn enters this game on a tear offensively having knocked down 29, 28, 25 and 29 field goals over its last four contests but it's a much different story at the defensive end of the floor as it has yielded 32, 29, 25, 28 and 28 made field goals over its last five games. Houston was involved in an incredibly low-scoring affair against Northern Kentucky to open this tournament. Star guard Marcus Sasser appeared to re-aggravate his groin injury and was only able to play 14 minutes. His absence (he's likely to play but it remains to be seen for how long or how effective he can be) hurts the Cougars just as much defensively as it does offensively, noting that Northern Kentucky was able to get off a whopping 69 field goal attempts in Thursday's loss. Keep in mind, Sasser is one of the best defenders in the nation. While the Houston offense has sputtered recently, I'm not overly concerned as it ranks 11th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and has enough scoring depth to pick up the slack should Sasser not be able to handle his usual workload. I'm quite simply willing to bet against an Auburn defense that has looked out of sorts for the last month stepping up against the one-seed here. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Kent State and Indiana at 9:55 pm et on Friday.

Kent State enters the NCAA Tournament sporting a 12-20 o/u record in lined games this season but was involved in consecutive high-scoring affairs in the MAC Tournament semi-final and championship rounds. I do think the Golden Flashes generally want to slow things down when faced with considerable odds, as is the case here against Indiana. Remember, during their non-conference slate they went up against Houston and Gonzaga, both on the road no less, and held them to just 50 and 55 field goal attempts respectively in a pair of ATS wins. Indiana checks in off a high-scoring contest as well, falling by a 77-73 score against Penn State in the Big Ten Tournament semi-finals. The Hoosiers scored 80 or more points in 13 of their first 21 games this season but have topped out at 79 points over their last 12 contests. Defensively, Indiana probably doesn't get enough credit. It has held 12 of its last 17 opponents to 24 made field goals or fewer. Kent State ranks 111th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, noting that it has only faced the 284th most difficult slate of opponents from a defensive efficiency standpoint (according to KenPom). I noted earlier that the 'over' has cashed in the Golden Flashes last two games. That matches their longest such streak of the season, with the 'under' having cashed in their next game on both previous occasions where they came off back-to-back 'overs'. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

The Hornets have seen the 'over' cash in each of their last three games - not surprising given they've been a mess defensively since losing key space-eater Mark Williams to a thumb injury. Note that Charlotte has allowed its last three opponents to make good on 46, 41 and 45 field goals. That includes a pair of games against the slow-paced Cavaliers, who got up only 80 and 76 field goal attempts. The 76ers play a similarly slow pace but figure to take advantage just the same. Philadelphia had its streak of seven straight games knocking down 40 or more field goals snapped last time out against the aforementioned Cavs but it still scored 118 points. For whatever reason, the Hornets offense has given the 76ers defense fits going back to the start of last season, making good on 48, 39, 46, 42, 44 and 38 field goals in six meetings with a low-water mark of 106 points in terms of scoring. Charlotte enters this contest having knocked down 40 or more field goals in five straight games after being held under that number in four of its previous five contests. The return of Kelly Oubre has certainly given it a boost, rounding out a capable scoring trio that also includes Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward. Take the over (8*).

First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Penn State and Texas A&M at 9:55 pm et on Thursday.

Both of these teams posted 'under' results in their respective conference tournament championship games but I look for a different story to unfold as they match up in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. I think the potential is there for Texas A&M to go off offensively after being held down by an elite, under-appreciated Alabama defense in the SEC title game. Penn State ranks 99th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom) and has shown no ability to limit its opponents' scoring opportunities over the last month or so, allowing more than 60 field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games overall. The Nittany Lions have yielded 24 or more made field goals in 12 of their last 15 contests overall and haven't limited an opponent to 20 or fewer made field goals since way back on December 29th (I realize that streak was kept intact thanks to overtime against Northwestern last week). Texas A&M can certainly play some defense but it's worth noting that it hasn't held an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals since February 4th against Georgia. It's worth noting that the Aggies have been a much different team away from their home floor as well, yielding an average of two more made field goals on two fewer attempts per game compared to their overall season average. Despite playing at a slow pace, the Nittany Lions have managed to knock down 22 or more field goals in five of their last six games and have only been held to fewer than 20 made field goals twice all season - an impressive feat considering they play in the Big Ten, which can be a slog of a conference at times. Penn State averages 10 made three-pointers per contest and travels well in that regard, averaging the same 10 made threes per game away from home, on one attempt fewer compared to its season average. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Suns are in desperate need of a 'get-right' performance offensively and I think they get it on Thursday against the Magic. With that being said, Orlando checks in off an off day on Wednesday following a disappointing loss in San Antonio on Tuesday. The Magic offense has been on point during a 6-1 'over' run, scoring 114 points in all seven games and I do expect it to give the Suns defense some trouble here. The problem for Orlando is that its own defense has been non-existent lately. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse at that end of the floor as it has allowed 46, 49, 42 and 48 made field goals over its last four games. Prior to that stretch, there were also three games where the Magic allowed 48 or more made field goals from February 14th to March 1st. The opportunities have certainly been there for the Suns as they've hoisted up 94 or more field goal attempts in three of their last four contests. On the flip side, Phoenix has faded a little defensively, yielding 40 or more made field goals in three straight games despite holding all three of those opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts. The 'under' has cashed in each of the last two meetings in this series but we haven't seen three consecutive 'under' results between these two teams since back in 2016-17. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Thursday.

The 'pop-gun' Bulls offense struck again last night as we just missed with the 'over' in the Kings 117-114 win in Chicago. The fact that the game even got to 231 total points was encouraging given the Kings got off just 78 field goal attempts while the Bulls knocked down only 38-of-97 from the field. Here, I'm expecting both teams to take part in a track meet in Brooklyn. The Nets certainly looked road-weary two nights ago as they wrapped up a five-game in eight-night trip in Oklahoma City. Brooklyn clearly ran out of gas late in that game, unable to make a double-digit halftime lead stand up. I do think we see the Nets bounce right back offensively following an off day on Wednesday. Prior to Tuesday's game, Brooklyn had made good on 40 or more field goals in four straight games. Defensively, the Nets have been matador-like, however, allowing 44, 48, 45 and 45 made field goals over their last four games and more than 40 in nine of their last 11 contests. Each of their last four opponents has gotten off at least 90 field goal attempts. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Furman and Virginia at 12:40 pm et on Thursday.

While anything can obviously happen, I believe there's a good chance this game ends up being akin to watching paint dry, yet here we are being offered a total in the 130's. Furman does play at a reasonably fast pace, ranked 124th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Of course, the Paladins haven't had to play all that methodically having faced the 271st most difficult schedule in the nation. The open looks have been there for the most part throughout the campaign and Furman has taken full advantage. Here, however, they'll be taking a big step up in class against one of the best defensive teams in the nation in Virginia. If Furman is to have any shot at pulling the upset here (as many seem to feel it can), it will need to use its excellent ball movement and patience at the offensive end of the floor to break down the Cavaliers. On the flip side, few teams have been able to speed up Virginia this season, and Furman doesn't figure to be able to (or have any interest in) doing so on Thursday. The Cavaliers rank 360th out of 363 Division I teams in adjusted tempo this season not to mention 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency. We certainly saw them lock in during the ACC Tournament, holding all three of their opponents to exactly 19 made field goals. Only one of their last 10 opponents has managed to get off more than 53 field goal attempts and that was Clemson in a game that totalled only 121 points. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

This may look like a lofty total given these two teams just met less than two weeks ago and combined to score only 206 total points. I believe it's warranted, however. The pace and scoring opportunities should be there in this one, noting that the Warriors have employed a 'swinging-gate' defense lately, allowing five straight opponents to get off at least 93 field goal attempts, with all five of those foes knocking down at least 42 (one was aided by overtime). Interestingly, the Clippers have also been affording their opponents plenty of opportunities, yielding 90 or more FG attempts in seven of their last eight contests. The only occasion where they didn't we still saw a whopping total of 255 points scored in a matchup with Sacramento. With both teams rested and looking ahead to another day off tomorrow, I don't expect either side to leave anything on the table here. As a final note, the Clippers have seen their last two games stay 'under' the total. That's worth mentioning as they haven't posted three straight 'under' results since January 8th to 15th, when they went on a 4-0 'under' run. Take the over (8*).

First Four Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona State and Nevada at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We won with the 'under' in Arizona State's most recent game as it bowed out of the Pac-12 Tournament at the hands of eventual champion Arizona last Friday. Keep in mind, we were working with a total set well into the 150's in that game. It still went 'over' the number we're dealing with in this 'First Four' matchup on Wednesday. The Sun Devils quietly started pushing the pace more in early February and never relented the rest of the way. They check in having hoisted up more than 60 field goal attempts in eight of their last 11 games. The only three times they didn't we still saw the 'over' cash at a 2-1 clip. While I've sung the praises of the Sun Devils defense at times this season, the opposition has displayed a fairly solid 'floor' noting that Arizona State has yielded more than 20 made field goals in 18 of its last 20 games. The only team that failed to eclipse that number over that stretch was Oregon State - one of the weakest offensive teams in the country (278th in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom). Nevada hasn't really shown the ability to dictate its oppnents' pace, as evidenced by its last two games in which it allowed UNLV and San Jose State to get off 72 and 65 field goal attempts, respectively. The Wolfpack have certainly faced their share of tough defenses this season - the 66th toughest slate of opponents in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency in fact (again according to KenPom) - but made out just fine, ranking 61st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. There have been plenty of impressive performances along the way, including scoring 87 points against Kansas State, 75 points against San Diego State and 85 points against Utah State. Speaking of 'floors', you would have to go back 25 games to find the last time Nevada was held to fewer than 60 points (I do realize they'll likely need to get well past that number to help this total along). Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The only previous matchup between these two teams this season totalled only 211 points and that's helping to keep the number in check in Wednesday's rematch in Chicago. Both of these teams come in red hot offensively. The Kings have made good on 43 or more field goals in nine of their last 10 games and 40+ in all 10 of those contests. Meanwhile, the Bulls have been heating up, knocking down 45, 46 and 44 field goals over their last three games, despite getting off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in all three contests. The Kings are coming off a home loss to the Bucks on Monday and that's notable as they've scored 140, 133, 133 and 134 points in their last four games following a loss. The Bulls average 113.2 points per game this season but that scoring average bumps up to 115.0 points per game when coming off a win, as is the case here. Take the over (8*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

When these two teams last met the Thunder secured a 112-102 road win back on January 15th. Keep in mind, the Nets were a much different team then with Kyrie Irving in the lineup and Kevin Durant still on the shelf pre-trade. Brooklyn has certainly been re-energized since dealing away Kyrie and K.D. The Nets check into this contest on the heels of five straight ATS victories including consecutive 'over' results. While they got off only 84 field goal attempts against a good Nuggets defense on Sunday, they still managed to knock down 40+ field goals for the fourth straight game. It's worth noting that they haven't been held to fewer than 90 field goal attempts in consecutive games since late February. As much as head coach Jacque Vaughn would like his team to play tougher defense, I'm not sure they have the personnel in place to do so. Note that Brooklyn has allowed 44, 48 and 45 made field goals over its last three games (one of those games was aided by overtime) with all three of those opponents hoisting up 90+ FG attempts. The Thunder didn't have their best shooting performance on Sunday in San Antonio but still had enough to get by the lowly Spurs. The good news for our purposes was that the Thunder did continue to push the pace, getting off 95 FG attempts in the victory. They've hoisted up at least 87 FG attempts in seven of their last eight and 11 of their last 13 contests. While we did see Oklahoma City hold its last two opponents to 34 and 33 made field goals, that was against the Pelicans and Spurs, respectively. It will be taking a step up in class against the fifth-in-the-East Nets on Tuesday. While the scoring wasn't necessarily there in that most recent matchup between these two teams, we did see each side get off 90 or more FG attempts. I think the pace will be there again on Tuesday and with both teams coming off an off day, their shooting legs should be firmly beneath them as well. Take the over (10*).

Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Monday.

The Suns dropped a high-scoring 128-119 decision at home against the Kings on Saturday but still check in having held an incredible 10 straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. They've been red hot (no pun intended) shooting the ball themselves but will be in tough with Kevin Durant sidelined (given all the key pieces they dealt away to acquire him). The Warriors continue to scuff their heels offensively, shooting worse than 44% as a team in three of their last four games. Their most recent contest did end up touching the total, but only thanks to overtime against Milwaukee on Saturday. Here, we'll go the other way and call for a lower-scoring contest than most are expecting, noting that the 'over' has cashed in all three meetings in this series this season but we haven't seen four straight matchups go 'over' the total since way back in 2008-09. The 'under' checks in 34-18 with Phoenix coming off a loss over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of only 218.2 points. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

We missed with this same play on Saturday as the two teams got off to a red hot start and that was enough to ultimately push the final score 'over' the total by a little more than a handful of points. The injury situation has only gotten worse for both squads since then with Buddy Hield and Marvin Bagley going down in that contest as well. Keep in mind, the Pacers are already missing the likes of Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner and Benedict Mathurin among others. Detroit is without Jaden Ivey and Bojan Bogdanovic. Credit the subs for stepping up and filling the void on Saturday but I'm willing to bet they don't do it again here. Note that the Pistons will play again tomorrow night in Washington so they likely have an interest in shortening proceedings as much as possible on Monday, given the limited number of bodies they have on hand. The 'over' has now cashed in three straight meetings in this series which is worth noting as we haven't seen four consecutive 'over' results in this matchup since way back in 2013-14. Take the under (8*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Philadelphia at 6:10 pm et on Sunday.

The 76ers have gotten back to a slower pace yet do check in having seen the 'over' cash in four of their last five games. Last time out, that had everything to do with the visiting Blazers quite simply shooting the lights out (they actually got off only 80 field goal attempts). Philadelphia has hoisted up 84 or fewer field goal attempts in an incredible 12 straight games. The Sixers have also limited the opposition to 86 or fewer FG attempts in seven of their last eight contests. The Wizards have gotten off 88 or fewer FG attempts in five of their last six games. The only time they surpassed that number they lost 117-111 to the Bucks - with that game still failing to surpass the total we're working with tonight. Off consecutive losses, I do think we see the Wiz play some defense here, noting that they've allowed more than 117 points just once in their last 11 contests. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Princeton and Yale at 12 noon et on Sunday.

It's not easy to speed up this Yale team. Cornell found that out yesterday as the Bulldogs slowed things down a number of times when the pace was getting frenetic and perhaps starting to favor the Big Red. While Yale ultimately scored 80 points in the win, that had more to do with Cornell's defensive inefficiency than anything else (not to mention the fact that Yale knocked down 10 threes - it averages only seven per game on the season). Yale ranks 232nd in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom) and I'm confident we'll see it employ a 'grind-it-out' style again on Sunday against Princeton, which is coming off a 77-70 win over Penn yesterday. The Tigers are a middle of the road team when it comes to pace. I do think it would be in their best interest to 'ugly it up' a little bit in this one after dropping both regular season meetings with Yale, allowing 87 and 93 points in the process. While both of those contests went 'over' the total, we haven't seen three straight meetings in this series go 'over' since 2017-18. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

This was already going to be an ugly Saturday night matchup in the Motor City but with super rookies Benedict Mathurin and Jaden Ivey sidelined it sets up that much worse. The Pacers are coming off a wild overtime win over the Rockets two nights ago. The 'over' has now cashed in each of their last three games, helping to keep tonight's posted total in a lofty range. The Pistons have struggled to score lately (by today's NBA standards at least), putting up fewer than 110 points in all but two of their last nine contests. While the defense-optional Pacers would appear to offer a reprieve, the Pistons are simply missing too many key contributors to be counted on for an offensive explosion here. Indiana has its own absences to deal with. Mathurin has already been ruled out while Myles Turner, Tyrese Haliburton and T.J. McConnell are all nursing injuries and currently listed as questionable to play. Even if all three are able to go, there's no guarantee they'll see their usual workload, especially if the game is well in control. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Missouri and Alabama at 1 pm et on Saturday.

Alabama enters this contest off consecutive 'under' results and I'm confident we'll see a third straight on Saturday as this total has simply been set too high. Missouri stunned Tennessee on a scorching-hot shooting performance yesterday, notching its fifth straight victory. While the Tigers offense impressed, I'm not sure they'll be interested in trading blows with the Crimson Tide here, noting that Alabama barely broke a sweat in an 85-64 win in the lone regular season meeting. Interestingly, Missouri has found a way to slow down the opposition lately, allowing 56 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time in six straight games entering Saturday's affair. Alabama had to lean on its own defense yesterday as its shooting touch just wasn't there against Mississippi State (the Tide knocked down 27-of-67 FG attempts). I'm anticipating a scrappier affair than most in this semi-final showdown on Saturday in Nashville. Take the under (8*).

Ivy League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cornell and Yale at 11 am et on Saturday.

These two teams just met on February 25th as Yale rolled to a 76-58 victory with that contest easily cruising 'under' the total, which closed in the low-150's. We're working with a lower posted total this time around but I'm not convinced the shift is warranted. Note that we haven't seen consecutive matchups in this series stay 'under' the total since all the way back in 2015-16. Cornell has been reeling to be sure but its slate is clean now as it needs two victories to book a spot in the NCAA Tournament. I certainly don't expect the Big Red, who rank 48th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom, to go down without a fight. While Yale does rank an impressive 62nd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, it has also only faced the 236th toughest slate of offensive opponents (based on average adjusted offensive efficiency). While we can sometimes project a sleepy start in these morning tipoff games, I don't think that will be the case here with both squads raring to go following a full week off. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona State and Arizona at 11:30 pm et on Friday.

These two teams were involved in one of the best games of the entire college basketball season on February 25th as Arizona State pulled off a stunning 89-88 upset win on a half-court, buzzer-beating heave. It's easy to forget that the first meeting of the season was a rather ho-hum 69-60 Arizona victory. It's notable that we haven't seen consecutive matchups in this in-state rivalry go 'over' the total since way back in 2016-17. It may surprise you to find out that Arizona State actually ranks an impressive 27th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite having faced the nation's 44th most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). While the Sun Devils were unconscious from the field against Arizona on February 25th, we can chalk that up as an anomaly as they've made good on just 21, 19, 23 and 23 field goals in four games since (they connected on 36 in the upset win over the Wildcats). We certainly haven't seen Arizona's best defensive basketball lately as it has allowed 24, 36, 26, 28 and 28 made field goals over its last five contests. I do think it catches Arizona State at the right time, however, and it's not as if the Wildcats have been down bad defensively all season as they still rank 55th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing the 43rd most difficult schedule (including the 80th toughest slate of non-conference opponents). Take the under (8*).

Big West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cal State-Fullerton and Cal-Irvine at 9 pm et on Friday.

Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring affairs on Thursday and I expect more of the same as they match up for the third time this season on Friday. The two regular season matchups were a bit of a mixed bag with the first totalling 135 points and the second reaching only 123 points. Fullerton has been an upstart this season, going an incredible 19-8 ATS in lined contests on the strength of a defense that ranks 81st in the country in adjusted efficiency (according to KenPom). The Titans are certainly capable of 'grinding it out', checking in 317th out of 363 Division-I teams in terms of adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Cal-Irvine is right there defensively as well, ranking 75th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, albeit playing at a considerably faster pace. The Anteaters have been particularly locked-in on defense lately, allowing 24 or fewer made field goals in nine of their last 10 games overall. On the flip side, Fullerton has impressively limited five of its last seven foes to 21 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back four meetings in this series to find the last time a team got off more than 56 field goal attempts and that contest still totalled 'only' 128 points back in January of last year. Take the under (10*).

SEC Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas and Texas A&M at 7 pm et on Friday.

These two teams were involved in an anomaly of a high-scoring affair in their first meeting this season as that contest totalled 151 points with Texas A&M getting off an otherworldly (by the Aggies own standards) 76 field goal attempts in a double-digit loss. The rematch proved far more 'normal', reaching only 118 points in a tightly-contested A&M home victory. I'm anticipating something in between here but do feel the total will prove too high. Arkansas has seen the 'over' cash in five of its last six games as a number of its recent opponents have quite simply shot the lights out. The pace hasn't necessarily been there for such high-scoring affairs, noting yesterday's game in particular where the Razorbacks and Auburn Tigers combined to hoist up only 101 field goal attempts yet we saw 149 total points scored. All told, the Hogs have limited seven of their last eight opponents to fewer than 60 FG attempts and I'm confident they'll do the same here, noting that Texas A&M ranks 244th in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom) and has gotten off 54 or fewer FG attempts in seven of its last eight contests. In fact, the Aggies have been held to fewer than 20 made field goals in four of their last six games yet here we find them in a pk'em price range against Arkansas. That lends itself to a relatively low-scoring affair in my opinion, noting that the Aggies have been nothing but consistent defensively, holding an incredible seven straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals, including the Razorbacks (to 22) on February 15th. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Memphis at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

We're seeing a considerable adjustment to the total in this game since the most recent meeting between these two teams on January 25th. That game totalled 242 points, staying just 'under' the closing total of 245.5. We're working with a total around 10 points lower (at the time of writing) for this rematch, largely due to the absence of Ja Morant for the Grizzlies. I don't believe that big of a shift is warranted. To say the Warriors have been a bad defensive team away from home this season would be an understatement. They've allowed a whopping 123.6 points per game on north of 49% shooting. You would have to go all the way back to January 13th to find the last time they held an opponent to 40 or fewer made field goals on the road and even further to December 16th to spot the last time they limited a foe to fewer than 40. Defensive warts aside, Golden State should be 'feeling it' offensively in this one after knocking down 47-of-89 field goal attempts in Tuesday's 137-128 loss in Oklahoma City. After holding four straight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals, the Grizzlies have now yielded 40, 45 and 41 made field goals over their last three contests. Offensively, it doesn't get much worse than Memphis' 36-of-93 shooting performance against the Lakers last time out. Keep in mind, the Grizzlies are just one game removed from a 50-of-92 shooting effort against the Clippers. The short line says a lot here as despite the short-handed nature of the Grizzlies, a competitive affair should be in order. That lends itself to a high-scoring contest in my opinion. Take the over (8*).

AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tulsa and Wichita State at 7 pm et on Thursday.

Both regular season meetings between these two teams surpassed the total we're dealing with on Thursday and I believe the number will prove too low once again. Tulsa enters this game on an 11-game losing streak, not to mention a four-game 'under' streak. The Golden Hurricane offense went in the tank down the stretch but I do think this is a favorable matchup, noting that Tulsa has hung relatively tough with Wichita State in all five meetings going back to the start of 2022, with the largest margin of defeat over that stretch being 11 points. The Golden Hurricane knocked down 27 and 25 field goals in this year's two matchups, scoring 69 and 75 points. The problem here is that Tulsa doesn't match up particularly well defensively. Wichita State has made good on 24 or more field goals in 10 of its last 11 games and faces a Tulsa defense that has yielded 25 or more made field goals in an incredible 19 of its last 21 games. I don't think the Golden Hurricane will shy away from an up-tempo affair here though, noting that they rank 146th in the country this season in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom) despite facing the 95th most difficult schedule. The Shockers stepped up with a dominant defensive effort against South Florida last time out but that might have just been an off shooting night for the Bulls as they still got off 58 field goal attempts. Prior to that, Wichita State had allowed at least 23 made field goals in 16 straight games, yielding 27 or more on eight occasions over that stretch. Take the over (10*).

Pac-12 Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and UCLA at 3 pm et on Thursday.

Colorado exploded in the second half against Washington yesterday, scoring 46 points on its way to a 74-68 win. Keep in mind, the Buffaloes M.O. this season has been their defense, ranking 19th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing the 43rd most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). I certainly expect to see the pace slow down in today's matchup (Colorado got off 66 field goal attempts in yesterday's win), noting that favored UCLA ranks 223rd in the nation in adjusted tempo this season and should be able to control proceedings much like it did during the lone regular season matchup between these two teams (the Bruins won that game 60-56 on February 26th). For UCLA, it has its sights set on a tournament championship, but also on much loftier goals starting next week. I'm not expecting a peak performance from the Bruins offense here, noting that even in an anomaly of a game that saw them hoist up 67 field goal attempts against up-tempo Arizona last time out, they still knocked down 'only' 28 field goals. Colorado enters this contest having held three straight opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals, including that aforementioned matchup with UCLA in which it yielded 22. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Duke at 2:30 pm et on Thursday.

While Pittsburgh is coming off a wild 89-81 win over Georgia Tech yesterday I think it knows that it is unlikely to enjoy similar success by employing that same style of play against Duke on Thursday. Case in point, the first regular season matchup between these two teams as the Panthers got off to a red hot start but ultimately gave the Blue Devils far too many scoring opportunities (66 field goal attempts) and paid the price in a 77-69 road loss in January. While Pitt has regularly gotten into the 70's, 80's and even 90's in terms of scoring this season, it's worth noting that it has only faced the 102nd most difficult schedule in the country - a relatively low rating for a team from a major conference. Here, it will be facing a Duke squad that checks in 27th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and 292nd in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). The Blue Devils have faced the nation's 72nd toughest slate of opponents. Another team with loftier goals beginning next week, but also with its sights firmly set on an ACC Tournament title, I'm not convinced we see Duke come out with a peak offensive performance in its opener in Greensboro. Both teams should have an interest in effectively shortening proceedings here, albeit for different reasons, and I think that lends itself to a lower-scoring contest than most are expecting. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Thunder have posted a 6-0-1 o/u mark over their last seven games but I look for that run to come to an end on Wednesday as they face the Suns in a difficult back-to-back spot. I'm not sure any team is as locked-in defensively as Phoenix right now. The Suns have held nine of their last 12 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. While the Thunder are playing well, winners of three games in a row while scoring 130, 129 and 137 points over that stretch, the fact that they're in a back-to-back and three-in-four situation on the road has to be factored in (their last three wins came at home). The last time we saw Oklahoma City on the road it was held to 41-of-94 shooting right here in Phoenix (also in a back-to-back spot). That previous meeting did end up totalling 239 points, however, helping keep this total in a lofty region. I mentioned the Thunder's red hot offense but their defense has stepped up to a certain extent as well, limiting six straight and 10 of their last 12 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The addition of Kevin Durant hasn't necessarily served to speed up the Suns offense, noting that they're hoisted up 89, 84 and 89 FG attempts in his first three games. Take the under (8*).

ACC Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Wake Forest and Syracuse at 12 noon et on Wednesday.

This will be the second meeting in less than a week between these two ACC schools after Saturday's contest went Syracuse's way by a score of 72-63. That relatively low-scoring result has afforded us a lower posted total this time around. I believe it will prove too low. The pace was certainly there for a higher-scoring contest on Saturday but neither team was able to make the most of their scoring opportunities. Still, Syracuse has now allowed four straight and seven of its last eight opponents to hoist up 60 or more field goal attempts while Wake Forest has yielded 27 or more made field goals in 10 of its last 11 games. The Demon Deacons have struggled to adjust to life without Damari Monsanto after he went down with an injury on February 22nd. I do think facing the same opponent in succession will help their cause here, however, noting that they're favored for a reason in this game. They'll certainly need to pick up the scoring pace here as they can't expect Syracuse to shoot a woeful 2-of-14 from three-point range the way it did on Saturday (the fact that it still scored 72 points was impressive). Note that Wake does check in 63rd in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Take the over (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday.

Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results - in fact, the Jazz have seen their last two games go 'over' the total while the Mavericks have posted three consecutive 'overs'. I expect those streaks to end here. After another tough loss - this one coming at the hands of the Suns on Sunday - the Mavs know they can't keep playing the way they have been, and by that I mean getting involved in repeated track meets. It's not the pace they're comfortable playing at and it just doesn't give them the best chance to win on most nights, despite the wealth of offensive talent they possess. Here, I think Dallas catches a bit of a break as Utah hasn't been on point offensively, topping out at 43 made field goals in seven straight games (it reached that number three times over that stretch). You have to figure the Jazz will be looking to tighten things up defensively here as well after allowing 130 and 129 points in consecutive losses in Oklahoma City. While the most recent meeting between these two teams in early February did snap a five-game 'under' streak in this series, it only got there thanks to 50 made free throws (the two teams average a combined 39 made free throws per game this season). Only once in the last 11 meetings have we seen either team knock down more than 41 field goals and that came in a contest that totalled only 203 points. Take the under (10*).

Horizon League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland State and Wisconsin-Milwaukee at 9:30 pm et on Monday.

I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair after Wisconsin-Milwaukee posted a rare 'under' result in its quarter-final matchup with Wright State. Monday's opponent, Cleveland State, has been a completely different team over the last month, hoisting up 60 or more field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games overall. Keep in mind, this is a team that still checks in 271st in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. The Panthers on the other hand rank 17th in the nation in that category. Note that Milwaukee checks in just 219th in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing just the 289th most difficult schedule in the country. I think the Panthers were fortunate to allow 'only' 72 and 70 points in their last two games despite yielding 74 and 68 FG attempts. Cleveland State figures to take advantage of Milwaukee's defensive warts, noting that the Vikings have knocked down 26 or more field goals in six straight games and 28+ in five of those contests. Take the over (10*).

Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Michigan and Indiana at 4:30 pm et on Sunday.

We'll fade the 'over' streaks for both of these teams on Sunday afternoon as Michigan enters on the heels of consecutive 'over' results while Indiana has seen each of its last three games go 'over' the total. I certainly don't think Michigan wants to get involved in another track meet here after allowing 70 field goal attempts in each of its last two contests. Prior to that, the Wolverines had held four of their last five opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. Despite their recent run of 'over' results, the Hoosiers have still made good on 25 or fewer field goals in five of their last seven games overall. Indiana continues to do a good job of limiting its opponents' scoring opportunities, yielding 58 or fewer FG attempts in seven of its last nine contests. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 123 points. We've seen a slight adjustment to the total for this rematch but I don't believe it will be enough. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa State and Baylor at 12 noon et on Saturday.

The first meeting between these two teams this season did sail 'over' the total but we're working with a higher number this time around and I believe it will prove too high. Iowa State made the most of its opportunities given its limitations offensively but still scored 'only' 69 points in its fourth straight loss, this one coming at the hands of West Virginia on Monday. You would have to go all the way back to February 4th to find the last time the Cyclones made good on more than 24 field goals in a game. They do continue to hold up well defensively, however, limiting six of their last nine opponents to 50 or fewer field goal attempts. They'll undoubtedly be looking to 'ugly it up' in this difficult road game against Baylor as well. Baylor has topped out at 26 made field goals over its last six games. The Bears aren't exactly pushing the pace, hoisting up fewer than 60 field goal attempts in seven straight games entering Saturday's contest. After allowing Texas and Oklahoma State to each get off 60 or more FG attempts in their last two games, I look for the Bears to clamp down on the Cyclones offense in this revenge spot. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

The Bulls are on an incredible 'under' run right now (even though their most recent game did find its way 'over' the total in Detroit). I do think the total has been adjusted too low in this particular matchup, however, noting that Chicago figures to have its hands full with the new-look Suns offense. Phoenix didn't need to keep its foot on the gas for four quarters two nights ago in Charlotte (in Kevin Durant's team debut). I suspect they'll have to on Friday though. Note that the Suns have been pushing the pace more than usual lately, hoisting up 88 or more field goal attempts in six straight games. The Bulls play at a slow tempo but have been making the most of their scoring opportunities, knocking down 40 or more field goals in three of their last four games. This has been a high-scoring series with each of the last three meetings eclipsing the 230 point mark. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We missed with the 'over' in the Blazers loss against the Warriors last night. While this is a difficult back-to-back spot for Portland, I do think the game is well-positioned to fly 'over' the total. New Orleans last took the floor on Monday, suffering an embarrassing 101-93 home loss against the Magic. That was arguably the Pelicans worst offensive showing in over a month. I'm confident they bounce back here, noting that the Blazers are a mess defensively, having allowed 45 or more made field goals in eight of their last nine games. In fact, each of their last 21 opponents have knocked down more than 40 field goals. You have to figure Portland goes off offensively as well in this spot, noting that the Pelicans rarely play a lick of defense on the road, allowing 117.2 points per game on 48% shooting. These two teams last met in November and that contest totalled only 201 points. Both teams shot poorly on that night and the game was played at a snail's pace. I expect a different story to unfold here. Take the over (10*).

Atlantic-10 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UMass and Duquesne at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set this total high enough with UMass coming off three consecutive 'under' results and Duquesne checking off a low-scoring game of its own. The first meeting between these teams this season produced 166 total points. Neither team shot particularly well in that contest but the game was played at an exceptionally fast pace. I expect a similar up-tempo affair here. The Minutemen had been rolling along offensively, having knocked down 25 or more field goals in seven of their last nine games, before running into a tough Dayton defense last time out. Meanwhile, Duquesne has connected on 25 or more field goals in eight of its last nine contests, making good on 28 or more in six of its last eight games. Both teams have been solid on occasion defensively, but not with any consistency. I just don't see either side shying away from a track meet here. Take the over (10*).

Non-Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday.

We missed with the 'over' in the Warriors most recent game on Sunday as they defeated the T'Wolves by a 109-104 score. I won't hesitate to go back to the well here, however, noting that the pace was certainly there for a much higher-scoring affair in that Sunday contest, and I'm confident Portland will do its part to help this total along. The Warriors have run into a bit of a shooting funk over their last few games but figure to get on track here, noting that Portland has allowed 45 or more made field goals in seven of its last eight games with the opposition knocking down at least 40 field goals in an incredible 22 straight contests. Golden State has seen each of its last two foes - the T'Wolves and Rockets - get off 90 or more field goal attempts, but fail to take advantage of their wealth of scoring opportunities, making good on just 38 and 36, respectively. Portland doesn't figure to have such trouble, noting that the Blazers have knocked down 42 or more field goals in five of their last six games, despite getting off 86 or fewer FG attempts in four of those contests. In fact, Portland has connected on 40 or more field goals in 12 of its last 14 games overall. Largely due to the Warriors recent low-scoring results (along with the fact that the likes of Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins remain sidelined) we're not seeing much of an adjustment to this total since the last time these two teams met on February 8th. That's notable when you consider that game reached a whopping 247 total points. Take the over (10*).

SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Florida and Georgia at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

We've seen a considerable adjustment to the total since the first meeting between these two teams this season - an 82-75 Florida victory back on January 7th. That game saw a closing total of 136 points. I believe the shift is warranted. Since that time, the Gators have lost forward Colin Castleton for the season with a hand injury. Much was made about the lost offense with Castleton sidelined, but there's a defensive aspect as well. Since Castleton went down, Florida has played three games. In those three contests, the Gators were torched for 34, 33 and 31 made field goals. While the reeling Bulldogs figure to offer a reprieve, at least on paper, I'm not so easily convinced. Note that Florida has been giving up scoring opportunities aplenty with 11 of its last 13 opponents hoisting up at least 60 field goal attempts. Georgia's offense has been stuck in the mud but has also been held to 56 or fewer field goal attempts in nine of its last 10 games. Here, I think we see the Bulldogs push the pace more than usual, noting that they got off a whopping 68 FG attempts in a loss but ATS cover in the last meeting between these teams. Note that Castleton had seven blocks and eight defensive boards in that game so his absence figures to open things up. I mentioned Florida's struggling defense but Georgia is in the same boat. The Bulldogs have allowed 39, 37 and 33 made field goals over their last three contests. Like Florida, Georgia has also had a difficult time slowing down the opposition, yielding at least 57 FG attempts in 15 of its last 17 games. After a lull in late January and early February, the Gators have connected on 32, 29, 22, 26 and 27 field goals over their last five games. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Golden State at 7:40 pm et on Sunday.

Both of these teams enter this contest off consecutive 'under' results but I look for a different story to unfold on Sunday evening in San Francisco. The Timberwolves continued to struggle defensively in Friday's 121-113 home loss to the Hornets, allowing Charlotte to knock down 43-of-92 field goal attempts in the loss. Note that Minnesota has now allowed 43 or more made field goals in six straight games and has shown little interest (or ability) in slowing its opponents' pace, yielding 92 or more field goal attempts in four of its last six contests. The story for the Warriors has been more about who has been missing from the lineup than who has been in it lately but Klay Thompson did manage to lift the team to a 116-101 win over the Rockets on Friday, pouring in 42 points. That game snapped a streak of eight straight contests in which Golden State had made good on at least 40 field goals. That had a lot to do with the fact that the Warriors didn't need to go full throttle after building a 66-49 halftime lead. Like the T'Wolves, the Warriors have done little to slow the opposition lately, allowing 90 or more FG attempts in seven of their last 12 contests. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 29-10 with Minnesota coming off three ATS losses in its last four games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 238.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' is a long-term 251-202 with the Warriors playing at home seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Siena and Iona at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We got precisely the results we wanted from both of these teams on Friday to set up this play on Sunday afternoon. Siena held a fifth straight opponent to fewer than 70 points but fell by a 69-66 score at Rider, eclipsing the total by a bucket. Iona, meanwhile, routed Mount St. Mary's by an 80-68 score, easily shooting north of the total. While the Gaels have become known for their high-powered offense over the years, it's been a bit of a different story this season. They've leaned heavily on their defense, which has arguably been the best in the MAAC. Iona enters Sunday's contest having held eight straight opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. Offensively, you would have to go back seven games to find the last time the Gaels got off more than 60 field goal attempts - a stark contrast to the pace we've seen from them in recent years. Siena doesn't figure likely to push the tempo here, noting that it hasn't hoisted up 60 or more field goals in any of its last nine contests. You would have to go back eight games to find the last time the Saints knocked down more than 23 field goals themselves. Siena ranks a respectable 138th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom) and hasn't allowed 60 or more field goal attempts in a game since New Year's Day and that contest against Fairfield still totalled only 131 points. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Purdue at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

The first meeting between these two teams this season got into the 150's as both sides shot exceptionally well in Indiana's 79-74 home victory. The pace wasn't necessarily there for a high-scoring affair, nor do I expect it to be there in Saturday's rematch. Note that Indiana has had a tough enough time just getting shots off lately, let alone knocking them down. The Hoosiers have hoisted up 53 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five games. On the flip side, only one of their last eight opponents has gotten off 60 or more field goal attempts and Purdue, which ranks 325th in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom) doesn't figure to challenge that here. The Boilermakers have limited six of their last seven opponents to 57 or fewer field goal attempts. Since connecting on a whopping 33 field goals in a rout of Iowa on February 9th, the Boilers have made good on just 17, 22 and 27 field goals over their last three contests. With Indiana having limited five straight and 11 of its last 12 foes to 26 or fewer made field goals, I don't anticipate anything coming easy in this one, even with revenge on the minds of the Boilers on their home floor. Take the under (8*).

Summit League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Oral Roberts and South Dakota State at 3 pm et on Saturday.

We got exactly the result we wanted from both of these teams two nights ago as they were both involved in lower-scoring than expected affairs to set us up with a reasonable total on Saturday. This is certainly a game South Dakota State has had circled since dropping an ugly 79-40 loss in its first meeting with Oral Roberts back in December. Note that the Jackrabbits enter this game on a serious offensive tear, having knocked down at least 27 field goals in six straight games, connecting on 30 or more in four of those contests. I do worry about South Dakota State defensively in this game, however, as it serves as a potential 'shock to the system' spot after holding a punchless UMKC offense to 50 points on 19-of-58 shooting on Thursday. Keep in mind, UMKC ranks 324th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 330th in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Oral Roberts represents a stark contrast, checking in 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 36th in adjusted tempo. Like South Dakota State, Oral Roberts has been on point offensively, making good on 30 or more field goals in six of its last seven and nine of its last 10 games overall. The Golden Eagles are vulnerable defensively, however, having allowed their last five opponents to knock down 30, 29, 25, 28 and 27 field goals. They've shown no interest (or ability) to slow their opponents' pace, yielding 60 or more field goal attempts in 12 of their last 14 games. South Dakota State might try to slow things down at times in this one but will be hard-pressed to do so against an ORU squad that has hoisted up 63 or more FG attempts in seven of its last nine contests. Projected to be playing from behind for much of this game as a considerable home underdog, I'm not convinced the Jackrabbits will be able to avoid the temptation of a track meet here. Keep in mind, it was almost a year to the day (February 24th, 2022) that these two teams were involved in a thriller that totalled a whopping 208 points. Take the over (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

I'm not convinced this will be the high-scoring track meet that most are expecting in Phoenix on Friday night. Oklahoma City is in a tough back-to-back spot after an overtime loss in Utah last night - not ideal when your conditioning might not be there after an extended All-Star break. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team as locked-in defensively as the Suns as they check in having held six of their last seven opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. They allowed more than 40 made field goals just once over that stretch and that came in a game that still stayed 'under' the total in Atlanta - a game where they were short-handed on trade deadline day. Offensively, the Suns are rounding back into form with Devin Booker back in the lineup. However, they've still topped out at 43 made field goals in eight of their last nine games. The outlier came in a game where they shot the lights out against Sacramento just before the break (that contest still totalled 'only' 229 points). The Thunder have limited each of their last three opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals in regulation time. Last night's contest in Utah ended a stretch of four straight games in which they had held the opposition to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Oklahoma City was red hot from the field earlier in the month but has since cooled off, connecting on 38, 42 and 40 field goals in regulation time over its last three contests. This is actually the first meeting between these two teams this season. They met on four occasions last season with 222 serving as the highest posted total. None of those four matchups surpassed the total we're working with tonight. As was often the case last season, I'm confident we'll see one, if not both teams bring their 'A' game defensively on Friday. Take the under (10*).

MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Fairfield and Niagara at 7 pm et on Friday.

We got the result we wanted to set up this play in last Sunday's low-scoring 61-52 Niagara loss at Marist. While the Purple Eagles rate a ridiculous 350th in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom), the oddsmakers have adjusted their totals accordingly and we haven't seen them post consecutive 'under' results since January 20th and 22nd (only one of those games stayed 'under' the total we're working with tonight). Fairfield has seen each of its last three contests go 'over' the total. This isn't the same stout defensive Stags squad we've come to expect. They've allowed five of their last seven opponents to knock down at least 25 field goals (one of those results was aided by overtime). While Fairfield won't 'wow' you offensively, it has at least shown some consistency, making good on 21 or more field goals in 10 straight games entering Friday's matchup. This is an ideal 'get right' spot for Niagara's offense. It got off 59 field goal attempts but could only make good on 17 of them against an improved Marist squad last Sunday. On the flip side, you would have to go all the way back to December 18th to find the last time the Purple Eagles held an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals. They've yielded 24 or more successful field goal attempts in three of their last five contests. In the lone previous matchup between these two teams this season we saw 146 total points despite the two combining to knock down only seven three-pointers (they average 12 made threes per game combined this season). The pace was there in that game and Fairfield was able to get to the free throw line with consistency (as has often been the case this season as the Stags average 21 FT attempts per game). I like the fact that this game will be played at Niagara as the Purple Eagles have been a more efficient offensive team on their home floor, averaging two more made field goals per game compared to their season average, despite getting off one less field goal attempt on average. Take the over (10*).

Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington State and Stanford at 11 pm et on Thursday.

A lot has happened since these two Pac-12 squads last met back on January 14th. Most notably, the 'over' has gone 5-4 in Washington State's last nine games and 6-4 in Stanford's last 10 contests, including three straight Cardinal 'over' results entering Thursday's rematch. I'm expecting a game closely resembling what we saw back in January here, noting that game totalled just 119 points with both teams topping out at 22 made field goals and neither getting off more than 51 field goal attempts. Note that Washington State has held five of its last six opponents to 56 or fewer FG attempts. Stanford hasn't enjoyed the same type of defensive success and let's face it, the sudden uptick in the Cardinal's pace hasn't been working in their favor as they've lost four of their last five games. With that being said, I do think Stanford can get back on track defensively here, noting that Washington State ranks 328th in the country in adjusted tempo this season, according to KenPom. The Cougars knocked down 29 and 27 field goals last week as it enjoyed consecutive wins against Oregon State and Oregon. Prior to that they had been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last nine contests. This isn't a court where Washington State has enjoyed a ton of offensive success in recent years, knocking down 20, 22, 21 and 24 field goals in its last four trips. Stanford has been rolling along offensively, making good on 28 or more field goals in three straight games but again, that has had something to do with playing at a faster pace than we've been accustomed to seeing from the Cardinal. Note that it figures to face resistance here as Washington State ranks 53rd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency this season despite having faced the 15th most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Wake Forest and N.C. State at 9 pm et on Wednesday.

I'm not convinced the oddsmakers can set this total high enough as the Demon Deacons and Wolfpack renew acquaintances on Wednesday night in Raleigh. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 156 points back on January 28th. The pace was certainly there on that night as we saw a whopping 129 field goal attempts. The Wolfpack did their part, knocking down 32-of-69 shots from the field but the Demon Deacons had an off night shooting the basketball, connecting on only 26-of-60 field goal attempts. You could say that N.C. State has been fortunate that its last few opponents haven't been able to make the most of their scoring opportunities. The Wolfpack have allowed 61, 62 and 62 FG attempts over that stretch but none of those three foes managed to knock down more than 27. Wake Forest figures to test N.C. State in that regard here as the revenge-minded Demon Deacons have made good on 28 or more field goals in eight of their last 13 contests. On the flip side, Wake Forest leaves a lot to be desired defensively, having allowed its last seven opponents to knock down 28, 32, 27, 27, 30, 27 and 37 field goals. Meanwhile, N.C. State is locked-in offensively right now, pushing the pace and making the most of its scoring opportunities having connected on 37, 30 and 32 field goals over its last three games since an embarrassing 19-of-57 shooting effort against one of the best defensive teams in the country, Virginia, back on February 7th. All told, the Wolfpack have made good on 28 or more field goals in six of their last eight games overall. The Demon Deacons have shown little interest (or ability) to slow down their opponents, allowing 60 or more FG attempts in seven of their last nine games and 63 or more in four straight contests. This game is a matchup of two teams that both rank inside the top-75 in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Youngstown State and Robert Morris at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

While few are paying much attention, Youngstown State is currently on an incredible shooting run having knocked down 30 or more field goals in six straight games. In fact, you would have to go back 24 games - all the way to November 20th - to find the last time the Penguins were held to fewer than 26 made field goals. While the schedule has had something to do with it (they've faced the 326th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom), the fact that they rank 30th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (also according to KenPom) is impressive to say the least. While Robert Morris has held up well defensively of late (it has limited four straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals), the toughest offensive opponent it faced over that stretch was Cleveland State and the Vikings check in just 185th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 294th in adjusted tempo this season. Youngstown State should present somewhat of a 'shock to the system' here. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 'only' 134 points in a Penguins blowout victory. Keep in mind, Robert Morris made good on just one three-pointers and five free throws in that contest. The Colonials average eight made threes and 12 successful free throws per contest here at home where tonight's rematch will be played. Robert Morris is by no means an offensive juggernaut but has knocked down at least 21 field goals in 23 straight games and could catch Youngstown State letting its guard down here after the Penguins routed Milwaukee and Green Bay by 29 and 30 points in their last two games. Take the over (8*).