CBB Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Purdue and Connecticut at 9:20 pm et on Monday.

I'm not going to stand in the way of either team's 'under' streaks in this matchup. Purdue has seen the 'under' cash in three straight games while Connecticut rides a six-game 'under' streak into Monday's contest. Neither team plays all that fast. In fact, the Huskies sit 328th (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Purdue checks in 211th. While both teams are ultra-efficient offensively, I generally feel this large stadium venues tend to put a ceiling on shooting abilities. The Huskies actually shot well in their matchup with Alabama on Saturday but Purdue is a considerably tougher defensive opponent. The Boilermakers are going to be up against it here trying to find open looks with UConn ranking fourth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). I think the Huskies can defend without fouling, something Purdue's previous opponents haven't been able to do effectively. Note that the 'under' is 16-15 in Purdue's last 31 netural court games and 18-12 in UConn's last 30 netural court affairs. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between James Madison and Duke at 5:15 pm et on Sunday.

I think we saw a pretty good blueprint of what these two teams want to do in this tournament in the opening round on Saturday, even if both did end up shooting poorly. James Madison will be an underdog throughout the Big Dance and I think there's a path to success if it can effectively shorten proceedings and limit scoring opportunities for the opposition. Duke doesn't play at all that fast of a pace, ranking 236th in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Note that the Blue Devils have held five of their last seven opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. Only one of James Madison's last six foes has managed to get off 60 or more field goal attempts. The 'under' is 21-15 in James Madison's last 36 games following a double-digit win including a 13-6 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 30-24 in Duke's last 54 contests following an ATS victory including a 10-8 record in that spot this season. Take the under (8*).

Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and Creighton at 9:40 pm et on Saturday.

Oregon's opening round victory over South Carolina didn't have much business getting 'over' the total or certainly not reaching 160 total points. The Ducks actually got off just 47 field goal attempts in that contest while holding South Carolina to 25-of-56 shooting. Oregon quite simply shot the lights out but I think it will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance against Creighton on Saturday. While the Blue Jays are known for their offensive prowess they can play some defense as well. Note that they check in ranked 26th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season. Both teams rank around the 200 mark in terms of adjusted tempo so neither team plays exceptionally fast. Note that the 'under' is 24-21 in Oregon's last 45 games following an ATS win including an 8-7 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 15-12 in Creighton's last 27 contests following a win by 15 points or more including a 7-6 mark in that spot this season. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Gonzaga and Kansas at 3:15 pm et on Saturday.

I understand the logic behind the high total in this matchup. After all, both teams exploded offensively in the opening round with Gonzaga scoring 86 points in a rout of McNeese State and Kansas putting up 93 points in a narrow escape against Samford. I don't think we'll see that same type of contest on Saturday, however. Kansas ranks 13th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom but 61st in adjusted offensive efficiency. It's the reverse for Gonzaga as it ranks eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency but 42nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. All that to say that the 'under' is 24-23 in the Bulldogs last 47 games following an 'over' result including an 8-5 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 27-25 in Gonzaga's last 52 contests following a win by 15 points or more including a 7-5 mark in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 61-35 in Kansas' last 96 games as an underdog including an 8-5 record in that situation over the last three seasons. When playing with one day or less of rest, the Jayhawks have seen the 'under' go 16-8 over the last three seasons including a perfect 4-0 record this season. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Drake and Washington State at 10:05 pm et on Thursday.

Washington State enters this tournament off three straight 'under' results but that streak can be easily explained. The Cougars first faced Washington with an inflated total set in the mid-140's off consecutive 'over' results. That game actually surpassed the total we're working with tonight, reaching 142 points. Next they exploded for just shy of 80 points but Stanford wasn't a capable dance partner producing only 62 points in a blowout result (that also still eclipsed the total we're working with here). Finally, Washington State was ousted from the Pac-12 Tournament in a defensive struggle against Colorado (we saw what the Buffaloes are capable of defensively in their win over Boise State in First Four action last night). Drake wants to push the pace and is efficient offensively ranking well inside the country's top-50 in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. It doesn't have a defense to go along with it, however, as the Bulldogs enter this tourney ranked 72nd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, having allowed nine of their last 11 opponents to knock down at least 26 field goals. Note that the 'over' is 22-11 in Drake's last 33 games with the total set in the 130's including a 4-2 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 17-14 in Washington State's last 31 contests after allowing 60 points or less in its previous game including a 7-2 record in that spot this season. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Nevada and Dayton at 4:30 pm et on Thursday.

This one won't be considered among the potential track meets in the opening round of the tournament but I expect it to get 'over' the reasonable total nonetheless. Nevada enters the tourney riding a six-game 'over' streak. Meanwhile, Dayton had its own six-game 'over' streak snapped in its upset loss against Duquesne in Atlantic-10 Tournament action last week. Neither team plays all that fast but both are ultra-efficient offensively and find ways to put points on the board. I think the matador-like defense of Dayton in particular is worth noting here as it has allowed five of its last seven opponents to get off at least 58 field goal attempts. Nevada's opponents have displayed a rock solid offensive floor, connecting on 23 or more field goals in five of their last six games and more than 20 in 14 of their last 17 contests. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and South Carolina at 4 pm et on Thursday.

We'll once again target PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh for a potentially low-scoring affair between Oregon and South Carolina on Thursday afternoon. Keep in mind, the last time this venue hosted NCAA Tournament first and second round action was in 2022 and the six games played here resulted in an average total of just 124.2 points. Oregon sits just inside the country's top-200 in terms of adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Meanwhile, South Carolina ranks 354th (out of 362 Division I teams) in the same category. The Ducks certainly ramped up their defensive play down the stretch, holding each of their last four opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals on the way to a Pac-12 Tournament title. The Gamecocks didn't enjoy the same success as they met their demise at the hands of an ultra-athletic Auburn squad in the SEC Tournament. However, South Carolina does check in having held 12 of its last 14 opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. On the season, the Gamecocks rank just three spots outside the country's top-50 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The 'under' is 9-6 in Oregon's last 15 games following consecutive ATS wins including a 3-2 mark in that situation this season. Additionally, the 'under' is 25-12 in South Carolina's last 37 non-conference affairs including a 7-6 record this season. Take the under (8*).

First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Akron and Creighton at 1:30 pm et on Thursday.

Creighton tends to carry a reputation as an up-tempo offensive team and bettors are generally quick to support the 'over' in games involving the Blue Jays, especially at this time of year. We've already seen this total get bet up a couple of points and I believe it will prove too high. Pittsburgh's PPG Paints Arena last hosted NCAA Tournament first and second round action in 2022. The six games played in this venue totalled an average of only 124.2 total points with just one of those contests surpassing the total we're working with in this particular contest on Thursday. Akron will certainly have its work cut out for it on Thursday but it does likely come in with a gameplan in mind and that's slowing this game to a crawl. Note that the Zips rank 268th in the country (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. They're also inside the top-100 in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. Considering Akron boasts the 162nd ranked offense (in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency) it doesn't figure to be interested in giving Creighton (and its 12th-ranked offense) any more possessions than it has to. Of note, the Blue Jays actually rank just outside the top-200 in adjusted tempo so it's not as if they're playing at a frenetic pace this season. Yes, they've been ultra-efficient but I do think playing at a larger venue like the one in Pittsburgh serves as an equalizer in a sense. The 'under' is 21-17 in Akron's last 38 games with the total set in the 140's including a 12-5 mark in that situation this season. Additionally, the 'under' is 27-13 in the Zips last 40 contests played on a neutral court as an underdog including a perfect 3-0 mark in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 29-18 in Creighton's last 47 postseason tournament games including 16-9 in its last 25 NCAA Tournament contests. Take the under (10*).

NIT Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between VCU and Villanova at 9 pm et on Wednesday.

This game is flashing 'under' as two teams that are obviously disappointed to not be playing in the Big Dance match up in NIT action on Wednesday night in Villanova. VCU lost in a slugfest in the Atlantic-10 Championship against Duquesne. The Rams rank outside the top-100 in the country in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency and 302nd in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). Where VCU shines of course is at the defensive end of the floor, sitting 43rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. This is a matchup it figures to handle against a Villanova offense that has disappointed, ranking 84th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 350th in adjusted tempo. Only 12 Division I teams have played at a slower pace this season. The Wildcats have been even better than the Rams defensively this season, ranking 13th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. While there's always the chance we see a late scoring flurry in a game in this pointspread range, I'm willing to take my chances with the 'under'. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Wagner and Howard at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday.

This has the potential to be a slugfest between two little-known schools that have everything to play for in Dayton on Tuesday. Wagner ranks 361st (out of 362 Division I schools) in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. It got even slower offensively down the stretch, getting off 57, 54 and 49 field goal attempts over its last three contests. Howard wants to play faster but I don't think it will be given much room to breathe in this particular matchup. Note that Wagner checks in having held four straight opponents to 21 or fewer made field goals. The Bison actually played slower down the stretch, getting off 52 or fewer field goal attempts in six of their final 10 games. Limiting scoring opportunities is half the battle and in that regard, Howard has performed well, allowing 54 or fewer field goal attempts in seven of its last 11 contests. Wagner has connected on more than 23 field goals just once in its last eight games. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Northwestern at 2:30 pm et on Friday.

Wisconsin exploded for 87 points in yesterday's rout of Maryland. I don't expect it to enjoy the same offensive success on Friday as it draws Northwestern in Big Ten Tournament quarter-final action. Note that the Badgers preferred pace is slow, ranking 307th in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. The same goes for the Wildcats, in fact Northwestern checks in 342nd (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo. While the Badgers offense has been ultra-efficient, this will be the Wildcats second time seeing them this season after holding them to just 44 field goal attempts in the first matchup back in January. Wisconsin shot the lights out in that game but the final score still reached 'only' 134 total points. You would have to go back four meetings in this series to find the last time a contest totalled more than 134 points. The defense tends to ratchet up as this tournament goes. Case in point, last year's quarter-final round saw the four games total 135, 126, 132 (overtime game) and 130 points. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Xavier and Connecticut at 12 noon et on Thursday.

Xavier was able to play at its preferred pace in yesterday's win over Butler, hoisting up a whopping 67 field goal attempts in the 76-72 victory. The Musketeers aren't likely to enjoy the same offensive success against top-seed Connecticut on Thursday. The Huskies rank 12th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. Also note that UConn checks in 332nd in adjusted tempo. The last time these two teams met the Huskies rolled to a 99-56 victory on January 28th. You can be sure Xavier hasn't forgotten that beatdown and will likely be a little more interested in grinding this rematch out and effectively shortening proceedings, keeping in mind UConn also ranks third in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. While you wouldn't know it by yesterday's performance, the Musketeers rank inside the top-50 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Take the under (8*).

West Coast Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Gonzaga and St. Mary's at 9 pm et on Tuesday.

The 'under' has cashed in the last three meetings in this rivalry series going back to last year's WCC Tournament championship game. I expect more of the same on Tuesday. We know what St. Mary's approach to this game will be. The Gaels will look to slow the pace to a crawl, noting that they rank 358th (out of 362 Division I teams) in terms of adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. St. Mary's enters this contest having held 25 of its last 29 opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. Gonzaga enters on an offensive tear but it's not as if the Bulldogs are really pushing the pace. They've gotten off 61 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games including 58 against St. Mary's on March 2nd. Note that the 'under' is 7-5 with Gonzaga coming off an 'over' result this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 10-4 in St. Mary's last 14 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent including a 3-1 mark in that situation this season. Take the under (10*).

Summit League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between South Dakota and Oral Roberts at 8 pm et on Friday.

I think 'over' bettors may be trying to fit a square peg into a round hole in this particular matchup on Friday. While both teams have struggled defensively all season long, I'm not sure either team is capable of taking advantage offensively. South Dakota has drawn every bit of efficiency out of its offense down the stretch, connecting on 27 or more field goals in eight of its last nine games but it is playing with a relatively small margin for error having gotten off fewer than 60 field goal attempts in five of its last six games. It runs into an Oral Roberts squad that did play some of its best defensive basketball of the season down the stretch, limiting four of its last five foes to 26 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back five games to find the last time the Golden Eagles allowed an opponent to get off more than 60 field goal attempts. In two regular season meetings we saw both teams hoist up at least 60 field goal attempts in both matchups yet those two games stayed 'under' the total. The 'under' is 26-20 in South Dakota's last 46 tournament games. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 43-32 in Oral Roberts last 75 tournament contests including a 6-2 mark over the last three seasons. Additionally, the 'under' is 28-13 ATS in the Golden Eagles last 41 games following an ATS loss, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston College and Miami at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

Miami has inexplicably been idle since a week ago Monday, when it dropped a 75-71 decision on the road against North Carolina - its seventh straight defeat. Boston College enters on the heels of four straight losses but it has been making 'over' bettors happy with each of its last six contests sailing 'over' the total. I look for more of the same on Wednesday. While the Miami offense has struggled lately, it does continue to push the pace, hoisting up more than 60 field goal attempts in three straight games. The Hurricanes rank 112th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom this season. Going up against Boston College's matador-like defense should serve Miami well in this spot. The Eagles have allowed eight of their last nine opponents to make good on at least 27 field goals. Boston College ranks 173rd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom, not good for a Power-5 program. On the flip side, the Eagles have been fairly consistent offensively, making good on 25 or more field goals in five of their last six games with a low-water mark of 24 made field goals over their last nine contests. Miami, like Boston College, has struggled defensively allowing its last four opponents to connect on 28, 28, 30 and 27 field goals. Note that the 'over' is 19-12 in Boston College's last 31 games as a road underdog and 16-6 in its last 22 contests when coming off a game that totalled 155 points or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 27-15 in Miami's last 42 games as a home favorite and 7-5 in its last 12 contests following a road loss in-conference. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego State and UNLV at 11 pm et on Tuesday.

The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled just 133 points and I believe they'll be hard-pressed to top that number in Tuesday's rematch. UNLV is quietly playing as well defensively as any team in the country right now having held five straight opponents to 21 or fewer made field goals and nine in a row to 23 or less. This matchup is right back in the Runnin' Rebels wheelhouse as San Diego State ranks 240th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and its strength lies at the defensive end of the floor rather than on offense. The Aztecs are actually coming off a subpar defensive effort against lowly San Jose State last time out. They've had a week to stew on that performance and I'm confident we'll see their eighth ranked (in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency) defense step up again here. We've seen San Diego State hold a pair of opponents to fewer than 20 made field goals in its last five games. On the flip side, UNLV is one of the slowest teams in the country, ranking 302nd in adjusted tempo. Note that the 'under' is 33-16 in the Aztecs last 49 games with the total set in the 140's, including a 7-4 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 32-21 in their last 53 contests following consecutive victories, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 46-40 in UNLV's last 86 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent including a 3-1 record in that spot this season. Take the under (8*).

ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina State and North Carolina at 4 pm et on Saturday.

Including the first meeting this season we've now seen three straight matchups in this rivalry stay 'under' the total. Going back to the turn of the century we've seen a four-game 'under' streak in this series only once - that coming back in 2017. I'm anticipating a considerably higher-scoring affair on Saturday. The Wolfpack were not playing well offensively the last time these two teams matched up. In fact, N.C. State was mired in a shooting slump that saw it connect on fewer than 20 field goals in two of three games. It's a much different story this time around. N.C. State has connected on 26 or more field goals in eight straight games. There's reason to believe the Wolfpack will be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities in this contest as North Carolina has allowed seven of its last eight foes to hoist up more than 60 field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Wolfpack have been getting boat raced defensively in recent weeks. They've allowed 29, 27, 30, 25 and 37 made field goals over their last five contests. North Carolina checks in top-25 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 38th in adjusted tempo, both according to KenPom. Note that the 'over' is 6-1 in N.C. State's last seven games when seeking revenge for a loss in which it scored 60 points or less, as is the case here, including a perfect 2-0 mark in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 30-23 in the Wolfpack's last 53 contests following an ATS defeat. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 62-47 in North Carolina's last 109 games following a win by six points or less including a 5-3 record in that situation over the last three seasons. The 'over' is also 26-20 in the Tar Heels last 46 games following an ATS loss including a 6-4 mark this season. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas and Baylor at 1 pm et on Saturday.

This has predominantly been a low-scoring series with the 'under' going 17-5 in the last 22 meetings including a 64-61 Kansas victory in the first matchup this season. Despite coming off a stunning home loss against BYU, the Jayhawks have shown signs of rounding into late season form defensively, holding six of their last eight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals and three of those foes to fewer than 20. Kansas has climbed to ninth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. While it generally plays at a fast pace, I do think we'll see it attempt to effectively shorten proceedings on Saturday as a road underdog against revenge-minded Baylor. The Bears have had their share of breakout performances offensively but in general, remain a work-in-progress at that end of the floor where they've connected on 25 or fewer field goals in seven of their last nine contests. Note that Baylor ranks 296th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and has gotten off 56 or fewer field goal attempts in nine straight games. Defensively, the Bears are coming off arguably their best performance of the season as they held TCU to just 17 made field goals in a 62-54 victory. Note that the 'under' is 10-5 in Kansas' last 15 games following a loss in-conference including a 4-1 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also a long-term 33-29 in the Jayhawks last 62 contests with the total set in the 140's including a 12-9 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 11-5 in Baylor's last 16 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent including a perfect 4-0 mark this season. The 'under' is also 19-14 in the Bears last 33 games following a win in-conference including a 6-2 record this season. Take the under (8*).

Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Fresno State and Nevada at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

Fresno State's most recent game went 'over' the total but that was only thanks to overtime. The Bulldogs haven't seen consecutive games go 'over' since a five-game streak from January 16th to 30th. Note that they held an up-tempo Utah State team to just 47 field goal attempts in regulation time last time out. In fact, they've limited three of their last four opponents to 51 or fewer field goal attempts. While the Aggies did get their fair share of opportunities at the free throw line in Wednesday's contest, Fresno State is actually allowing just 16 free throw attempts per game this season so it's not really a recurring theme. While the Bulldogs did get loose a bit offensively against Utah State, it faces a tougher challenge on Friday with Nevada ranked 37th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 245th in adjusted tempo this season (both according to KenPom). The Wolf Pack have held seven of their last eight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Fresno State has knocked down just 23 field goals per game on the road this season. As I mentioned, Nevada's preferred pace is slow, noting that it hasn't hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts in a game since February 2nd against a matador-like defense in San Jose State. The 'under' is 10-8 in Fresno State's last 18 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which it scored 60 points or less against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 4-2 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-18 in Nevada's last 41 contests following an 'over' result including a 7-3 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also a long-term 50-39 in Nevada's last 89 games after scoring 75 points or more in three straight games. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Gonzaga and San Francisco at 11 pm et on Thursday.

The 'under' has cashed in three of four meetings between these two teams going back to the start of last season including the lone previous matchup this year. With this game being played at the Chase Center in San Francisco, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest than most. San Francisco has played just once previously on this court this season, securing a 76-58 win over Minnesota back in November. The Golden Gophers had a miserable time trying to break through against the Dons defense in that game, connecting on just 22-of-50 field goal attempts. Note that San Francisco ranks 42nd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom). The Dons also check in just 202nd in adjusted tempo. They're certainly locked-in defensively right now having held three straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals and eight of their last nine foes to 25 or fewer. Gonzaga obviously likes to play much faster and is currently on an incredible offensive tear. With that being said, there shouldn't be any intimidation factor at play here as San Francisco has held it to just 27 and 24 made field goals in the last two meetings. Note that the 'under' is 15-13 in Gonzaga's last 28 games played on a neutral court including a 4-1 mark this season. The 'under' is also 12-7 in the Zags last 19 games following consecutive double-digit wins over conference opponents, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 14-4 in San Francisco's last 18 contests played on a neutral court including a 3-1 mark this season. The 'under' is also 13-8 in the Dons last 21 games after a home win in which they scored 85 points or more. Take the under (8*).

Mountain West Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Nevada and Colorado State at 11:30 pm et on Tuesday.

We saw a considerably higher posted total the last time these two teams met on January 24th. That game ultimately stayed 'under' that number but did go higher than the total we're working with on Tuesday. I still don't feel the oddsmakers have made enough of an adjustment. Nevada saw its last game go 'over' the total thanks to an offensive outburst against a miserable San Jose State defense. Note that the Wolf Pack are locked-in defensively right now having held three straight and five of their last six opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. Colorado State doesn't figure to push the pace on Nevada, noting that the Rams rank 271st in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). Speaking of being locked-in defensively, the Rams have climbed into the top-25 in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom) thanks to a stretch that has seen them limit seven straight foes to 24 or fewer made field goals. Nevada checks in just 241st in adjusted tempo and has hoisted up 58 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight contests, reaching 52 or less in half of those games. Note that the 'under' is 6-1 in Nevada's last seven games as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 9.0 points including a 2-0 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 9-5 in the Wolf Pack's last 14 contests following a double-digit win over a conference foe including a 5-1 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-10 in Colorado State's last 33 games with the total set in the 130's, as is the case here at the time of writing. The Rams have also seen the 'under' go 14-5 in their last 19 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 75 points or more including a 5-2 mark in that situation this season. Take the under (10*).

MEAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Coppin State and Howard at 7:30 pm et on Monday.

When these two teams met on January 29th they combined to score 147 points as Howard won in a 15-point rout. Note that they combined to knock down a whopping 43 free throws in that contest. To compare, last year's two meetings saw a grand total of just 50 made free throws and the two teams average only 29 made free throws per game combined this season. Coppin State rides an eight-game losing streak into this game. It hasn't made it easy on the opposition lately, however, holding four straight foes to 55 or fewer field goal attempts. In fact, it has limited six of its last seven opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the Coppin State offense has been dreadful. It ranks 361st (out of 362 Division I teams) nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Eagles have made good on 21 or fewer field goals in five of their last seven games. Howard remains incredibly stingy defensively, holding three of its last four opponents to 51 or fewer field goal attempts and 11 of its last 12 foes to 58 or fewer. The Bison offense isn't going to set the world on fire, knocking down 26 or fewer field goals in 11 of its last 12 contests. Howard has hoisted up 57 or fewer field goal attempts in 12 of its last 13 games overall. Note that the 'under' is 8-5 in Coppin State's last 13 games when seeking revenge for a same season loss against an opponent. The 'under' is also 7-2 in the Eagles last nine contests following a home loss by three points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 25-20 in Howard's last 45 games as a favorite including an 8-5 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 21-11 in the Bison's last 32 games following a victory by six points or less. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Quinnipiac and Rider at 2 pm et on Sunday.

Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring affairs on Friday but I look for a different story to unfold on Sunday afternoon. Quinnipiac is reeling off three straight losses - its longest losing streak of the season. On a positive note, it has done a slightly better job defensively in recent weeks, holding six straight opponents to 61 or fewer field goal attempts. In fact, the Bobcats have limited three of their last five foes to 23 or fewer made field goals. Rider may be known for its offense but it hasn't been playing at all that fast of a pace lately, getting off 56 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games. The Broncs will be looking to extend their three-game winning streak and after dropping a wild, high-scoring 88-84 decision on the road against the Bobcats back in early January, I'm not convinced they'll be interested in a track meet again here. Note that the 'over' has cashed in the last two meetings in this series and that matches the longest such streak over the course of 23 all-time matchups between these two teams. The last time we saw consecutive 'over' results in this series the next matchup reached just 138 total points. The 'under' is 17-10 in Quinnipiac's last 27 games following three straight losses in-conference including a 5-1 mark over the last three seasons. The 'under' is also 7-4 in the Bobcats last 11 contests after allowing 85 points in their previous game, as is the case here, including a 4-1 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 18-13 in Rider's last 31 games following a home victory by three points or less including a 5-1 record in that situation over the last three seasons (1-0 this season). Additionally, the 'under' is 25-20 in the Broncs last 45 home games with the total set in the 150's. Take the under (8*).

SWAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Grambling and Southern at 6:30 pm et on Saturday.

These two teams met back on January 20th and combined to score 141 points in a double-digit Grambling victory. I expect a lower-scoring affair in Saturday's rematch. Note that Grambling has quietly held 11 of its last 13 opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. The Tigers rank 310th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Southern has gotten off 54 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight games. The Jaguars have made good on 23 or fewer field goals in three of their last four contests. On the flip side, they've arguably been even better than the Tigers defensively in recent weeks. Southern has limited an incredible nine straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back 13 games to find the last time a Southern opponent hoisted up more than 53 field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 8-4 in Grambling's last 12 road games with the total set between 130 and 139.5 points including a perfect 4-0 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 15-10 in Southern's last 25 home games including a perfect 7-0 this season. Take the under (10*).

Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington State and Arizona at 11 pm et on Thursday.

Washington State has broken into the top-25 for the first time in an eternity and now it draws a difficult road test against a revenge-minded Arizona squad in Tucson on Thursday. The first meeting between these teams ended 73-70 in favor of the Cougars, cruising 'under' the total. In fact, the 'under' has cashed in five straight meetings in this series. Washington State enters this game locked-in defensively having held four straight and five of its last six opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. Note that it limited Arizona to just 25 made field goals despite yielding 72 field goal attempts back on January 13th. The Wildcats are on a tear offensively but they've also faced mostly up-tempo opponents over the last few weeks. Note that Washington State ranks 310th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and will almost certainly look to slow this game down and effectively shorten proceedings as a double-digit underdog on Thursday. While Arizona is known for its offensive prowess, it can play some defense as well, checking in ranked 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Wildcats have held eight of their last 10 opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. Washington State has made good on 25 or fewer field goals in three of its last four contests. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 41-19 with the Cougars coming off consecutive wins by 10 points or more, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 18-12 in their last 30 games as an underdog including a 5-2 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-7 in Arizona's last 16 games following three straight 'over' results, including 2-0 in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 10-5 in the Wildcats last 15 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent including 1-0 this season. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between UNLV and Air Force at 11 pm et on Wednesday.

The first matchup between these two teams this season was no contest as Air Force came up with its best performance of the season in a 90-58 victory in Las Vegas. That game soared over the total and as a result we're working with a higher number for this rematch. I believe it will prove too high. Keep in mind, these are two of the slowest paced teams in the country. UNLV checks in 299th in adjusted tempo according to KenPom while Air Force sits 358th (out of 362 Division I teams). The Falcons have connected on 21 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games and haven't played in over a week (they last took the floor on February 13th at San Jose State). On the flip side, Air Force has held five consecutive opponents to 50 or fewer field goal attempts. UNLV has almost matched Air Force step for step in that regard, limiting four of its last five foes to 52 or fewer field goal attempts and three of those to fewer than 50. Note that the 'under' is 9-2 in UNLV's last 11 games following a home loss in-conference, as is the case here. While Air Force enters riding a long 'over' streak (10 straight games), the 'under' remains 29-27 in its last 56 contests as an underdog. Take the under (8*).

SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ole Miss and Mississippi State at 9 pm et on Wednesday.

The first matchup between these rivals was a high-scoring barn-burner with the Rebels prevailing 86-82 on their home floor back in late January. I expect a much different game to play out in Wednesday's rematch. Note that the 'over' has now cashed in consecutive meetings in this series. We haven't seen three straight matchups between these two teams go 'over' the total since 2019-20 and prior to that 2005-06. Ole Miss snapped its three-game losing streak with a narrow win over Missouri last time out. You could see the Rebels shifting their focus to the defensive end of the floor as that losing skid grew. They enter this contest having held their last two opponents to just 54 and 49 field goal attempts. Keep in mind, Ole Miss ranks 244th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Rebels have played considerably faster from an offensive standpoint at home this season, averaging two fewer made field goals on two fewer field goal attempts compared to their season average on the road. Mississippi State has hoisted up fewer than 60 field goal attempts in five of its last six games, making good on 25 or fewer field goals in four of those contests. Like the Rebels, the Bulldogs are showing signs of locking in defensively, limiting their last three foes to 57, 47 and 55 field goal attempts and holding three straight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 9-3 in Ole Miss' last 12 games following a win in-conference and 41-33 in its last 74 contests after allowing 75 points or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 16-7 in Mississippi State's last 23 games following three straight victories. Take the under (10*).

MAAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Canisius and Siena at 2 pm et on Sunday.

We've seen consecutive 'under' results in this series and that's notable as we haven't witnessed a streak of three straight meetings between these two teams going 'under' the total since an extended stretch of low-scoring matchups from 2005-08. Canisius can drag even the worst of opponents into a high-scoring affair, noting the Golden Griffins have allowed 28 or more made field goals in five straight games. They've also allowed eight of their last 11 opponents to get off at least 60 field goal attempts. In a similar vein, Siena has allowed six of its last 10 foes to hoist up at least 66 field goal attempts. Canisius is waiting for an opportunity to get out and run after getting bogged down in its last two games against Iona and Marist. Note that the Golden Griffins actually rank a respectable 130th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The first meeting between these two teams this season reached just 130 total points but that game featured just eight combined made three-pointers. Note that these two teams average 13 combined made threes per game this season. The 'over' is 28-18 in Canisius' last 46 road games with the total set between 135 and 139.5, as is the case here at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 4-1 in Siena's last five contests as a home underdog of three points or less and 14-12 in its last 26 contests when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. Take the over (10*).

WCC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Pacific and Gonzaga at 9 pm et on Saturday.

Pacific was far more competitive than expected in an 82-73 home loss against Gonzaga last month. While this game figures to be more lopsided, I also believe it will be lower-scoring. The Bulldogs used up a lot of what they had in the tank in Thursday's eventual rout of Loyola Marymount. That was a one-point game at halftime before Gonzaga poured it on in the second half. Note that the Bulldogs, while known for their offensive prowess, have also played some defense lately, holding nine straight opponents to 28 or fewer made field goals. Pacific doesn't figure to approach that number on Saturday, noting the Tigers have connected on 25 or fewer field goals in eight of their last nine games. In fact, Pacific has gotten off 53 or fewer field goal attempts in six of its last eight contests. The 'over' has cashed in two straight meetings between these teams but we haven't seen three consecutive 'over' results in series history (going back 20 all-time meetings since 2012). Note that the 'under' is 20-16 in Pacific's last 36 games as a road underdog and 13-5 in its last 18 contests when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 11-4 in Gonzaga's last 15 games following a road win over a conference foe and 18-13 in its last 31 contests following an ATS victory as a double-digit favorite, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between BYU and Oklahoma State at 2 pm et on Saturday.

BYU left it all on the floor in a 90-88 home win over UCF on Tuesday while Oklahoma State has been idle since last Saturday's narrow 66-62 loss on the road against in-state rival Oklahoma. The Cougars have now been held to just 23, 27 and 21 made field goals over their last three games. I don't think we'll see the Cowboys get walked all over here, noting they do rank a respectable 86th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, not to mention 194th in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). Meanwhile, the Cowboys aren't likely to get dragged into a track meet either. They've connected on 22 or fewer field goals in eight of their last nine contests. Last Saturday's game marked the first time in 13 contests they hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 11-7 in BYU's last 18 games following a home win in which it scored 85 or more points and 26-20 in its last 46 contests after suffering three straight ATS defeats, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-18 in Oklahoma State's last 41 games as an underdog and 35-28 in its last 63 games after winning three straight contests ATS. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Florida-Gulf Coast and Stetson at 2 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams are hovering around the 300-mark in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom) with Florida-Gulf Coast just north of that level and Stetson considerably south of it. While neither team has played at all that quick of a pace - certainly nothing compared to what we saw from them in recent years - we have seen signs of them picking it up lately. FGCU has hoisted up 57 or more field goal attempts in four straight and eight of its last nine games, reaching at least 60 four times over that stretch. Stetson doesn't figure to do much to slow the Eagles as it has allowed five of its last six opponents to get off more than 60 field goal attempts. On the flip side, Stetson has 60 or more field goal attempts in four straight games, connecting on 29 or more of those shots in four of its last five contests. FGCU has continued to slow its opponents' tempo but has still allowed 25 or more made field goals in seven of its last 10 games. Note that the 'over' is 15-10 in the Eagles last 25 games as a road underdog including a 6-4 mark this season. The 'over 'is also 17-13 in their last 30 games following a double-digit win over a conference foe. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 17-5 in the Hatters last 22 games as a home favorite of six points or less including a 1-0 record in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 10-2 in their last 12 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent. Take the over (8*).

Ivy League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Yale and Pennsylvania at 7 pm et on Friday.

These two teams just met on Yale's campus on February 3rd with the Bulldogs prevailing by a 74-58 score in a game that stayed 'under' the total. I'm anticipating a considerably higher-scoring affair in Friday's rematch in Pennsylvania. Note that Penn connected on just 20 field goals in that previous matchup. The Quakers have proven to be a much better offensive team at home this season where they average 29 made field goals per contest. Yale has been fairly solid defensively but does check in having allowed 23 or more made field goals in six of its last eight games to at least leave the door cracked for the Penn offense, which is objectively better than its defense this season (the Quakers rank 154th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 264th in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom). Note that Penn has connected on more than 20 field goals in 19 of 22 games this season so I'm willing to chalk up that ugly performance against Yale as an outlier. Defensively, the Quakers have allowed 10 of their last 12 opponents to knock down at least 26 field goals with half of those foes making good on at least 29. Yale enters this game on a serious tear offensively having connected on 33, 31, 34, 31, 27, 25, 28 and 28 field goals over its last eight contests. Note that the 'over' is 5-2 in the Bulldogs last seven games following three straight home wins and 12-7 in their last 19 contests played on five or six days' rest, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 40-29 in Penn's last 69 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which it scored less than 60 points and 22-19 in its last 41 contests off an ATS win but SU loss. Take the over (10*).

ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia Tech and Notre Dame at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

Notre Dame is coming off a stunning 74-66 upset win over Virginia Tech on Saturday marking the first time it scored more than 61 points since a 75-68 victory at Georgia Tech on January 9th. I'm not convinced the Irish will enjoy similar offensive success here, noting they still rank 336th in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom) and just inside the top-300 in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency. Prior to Saturday's contest Notre Dame had been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in 10 straight games. Georgia Tech is by no means an elite defensive team but despite allowing six of its last 10 opponents to get off more than 60 field goal attempts it yielded 30 or more made field goals just once over that stretch. On the flip side, the Yellow Jackets have connected on 25 or fewer field goals in seven straight games. The Irish can play some defensive having limited eight straight and 14 of their last 15 opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. The first meeting between these two teams this season did reach 143 total points but both teams played at a faster pace than expected and shot better than their season average from beyond the arc in that contest. Note that the 'under' is 12-5 in Georgia Tech's last 17 games when seeking revenge for a loss where its opponent scored 75 points or more and 8-1 in its last nine contests following consecutive double-digit losses. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 25-21 in Notre Dame's last 46 home games and 9-3 in its last 12 contests following an upset victory. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado State and San Diego State at 9 pm et on Tuesday.

I think the fact that these two teams combined to score 150 points in their first meeting this season (on January 30th) is weighing heavily on this total. This is a matchup of two terrific defensive teams, not to mention two relatively slow-paced offenses. You wouldn't know it from the first matchup but I look for a more tightly-contested affair in Tuesday's rematch. Colorado State has seen the 'under' cash in three straight games and is coming off a 66-47 rout of San Jose State on Friday. The Rams are locked-in defensively right now having held each of their last three opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals and 15 of their last 16 opponents to 60 or fewer field goal attempts. While they do rank an impressive 25th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, they also sit 281st in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). Colorado State has hoisted up 53 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games entering Tuesday's contest. San Diego State is coming off an overtime loss at Nevada on Friday. The Aztecs rank 19th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. They check in having held an incredible 17 of their last 19 opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. They've also limited 16 of their last 18 foes to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. While San Diego State does rank inside the top-50 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, it is just 231st in adjusted tempo. The Aztecs have knocked down 27 or fewer field goals in nine of their last 10 games. Even in their previous matchup with the Rams they got off an uncharacteristic 60 field goal attempts but still topped out at 27 made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 7-2 in Colorado State's last nine games following three straight wins over conference opponents and 19-13 in its last 32 contests after a double-digit win. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 32-24 in San Diego State's last 56 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 75 points or more and 21-18 in its last 39 games as a home favorite. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Wake Forest and Duke at 7 pm et on Monday.

Last Monday we saw an absolute stinker of an ACC matchup as Virginia throttled Miami in an extremely low-scoring game. I expect a much different story to unfold this week as Wake Forest travels to Cameron Indoor Stadium to challenge Duke. The Demon Deacons have quietly reeled off three straight wins. They're on a tear offensively right now having connected on 28, 35, 29 and 29 field goals over their last four games. Duke has caught a couple of favorable matchups at home against Notre Dame and Boston College over the last week but will have to contend with an up-tempo Wake Forest squad here. Note that the Blue Devils have by no means played lockdown defense, allowing eight of their last 10 opponents to get off at least 58 field goal attempts. Wake Forest sits just outside the top-100 in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Defensively, the Demon Deacons can be exposed. They've shown no consistent ability to slow the opposition, allowing three straight opponents to hoist up at least 60 field goal attempts and six in a row to get off at least 57. I mentioned the Deacs are on an offensive tear but so are the Blue Devils. They've knocked down 30 or more field goals in three of their last four games and 26 or more in nine of their last 12 contests. Note that the 'over' is 13-8 in Wake Forest's last 21 games as a road underdog and 23-10 in its last 33 contests following three straight wins over conference opponents. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 15-7 in Duke's last 22 games following consecutive 'under' results and 21-17 in its last 38 contests following a game in which it scored 80 or more points, as is the case here. Take the over (8*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Bowling Green and Louisiana-Lafayette at 3 pm et on Sunday.

It's a rare non-conference matchup in February as Bowling Green travels to face Louisiana on Sunday afternoon. The Falcons have quietly reeled off 11 straight 'over' results. While getting out of the MAC for a game may serve as a 'catalyst for change' on most occasions, I'm not convinced that's the case here. Louisiana is coming off consecutive 'under' results but hasn't seen three straight games stay 'under' the total all season. The Ragin' Cajuns don't mind getting out and running and they'll certainly get their opportunity to do so here as the Falcons have allowed four of their last six opponents to get off more than 60 field goal attempts. Worse still, Bowling Green has allowed 11 of its last 14 foes to connect on at least 28 field goals. Louisiana has gotten bogged down at times against slow-paced Sun Belt Conference teams but still checks in having made good on 26 or more field goals in seven of its last 10 contests. Of course we'll need Bowling Green to hold up its end of the bargain offensively to help this total along as well. The Falcons have hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts in 12 of their last 16 games. They enter on a tear having knocked down at least 29 field goals in three of their last four contests. Note that the 'over' is 24-11 in Bowling Green's last 35 games following a win. The 'over' is also 21-13 ATS in Louisiana's last 34 games following an ATS defeat, as is the case here. Take the over (10*).

Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and Oklahoma at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Oklahoma State enters this game off consecutive 'over' results but I look for a different story to unfold as the Cowboys travel to Stillwater for a showdown with the rival Sooners on Saturday. The Cowboys have been positively dreadful offensively for the most part over the last month or so, connecting on 22 or fewer field goals in seven of their last eight games. They'll run into the 16th ranked defense in the country (in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency) according to KenPom on Saturday. The Sooners have limited three straight and five of their last seven foes to 23 or fewer made field goals. While Oklahoma's defense has been stout, it hasn't been quite as consistent offensively, making good on 25 or fewer field goals in seven of its last eight contests. While the Oklahoma State defense is not elite by any means, I do think it is better than it has shown lately, most recently getting lit up by Houston in a 'wrong place at the wrong time situation' after the Cougars dropped a tough one on the road against Kansas three days earlier. The Cowboys have held 15 of 23 opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts this season. Note that the 'under' is 6-1 in Oklahoma State's last seven games as a double-digit road underdog and 18-16 in its last 34 games following an ATS victory. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has seen the 'under' go 12-9 in its last 22 games as a double-digit home favorite and 14-12 in its last 26 contests following a double-digit home victory, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Virginia at 7 pm et on Monday.

Both of these teams have been on a bit of a tear (relatively speaking) offensively in recent weeks but I look for Monday's matchup to take on more of a defensive flavor. Miami delivered an 82-74 home win over Virginia Tech on Saturday. While the Hurricanes have connected on 24 or more field goals in eight straight games, they haven't knocked down 30 or more field goals since back on January 6th against Wake Forest. They obviously draw a tough challenge here as Virginia ranks 12th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Cavaliers have held six straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. They've also limited six of their last seven foes to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, Virginia has made good on more than 27 field goals just once in its last eight contests. Note that the 'under' is 12-6 in Miami's last 18 games as a road underdog and 11-7 in its last 18 games following a home win in-conference. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 11-6 in Virginia's last 17 games following consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here. The 'under' is also a perfect 7-0 in the Cavaliers last seven games following a win by three points or less in-conference. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in this series. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Stanford and Arizona at 8 pm et on Sunday.

The 'over' has cashed in five straight meetings between these teams and I expect that trend to continue on Sunday. Stanford took the first matchup of the season in stunning fashion, cruising to a 100-82 home win on New Year's Eve. Arizona remains one of the best offensive teams in the country, ranking sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. They're also just one spot outside the top-10 in adjusted tempo. Stanford has shown no ability to slow the pace of the opposition, allowing 60 or more field goal attempts in seven straight and 13 of their last 14 games overall. They did hold Arizona State down in a revenge game two nights ago but now the shoe is on the other foot. Note that Arizona has knocked down 28 or more field goals in 13 of its last 15 games and 18 of 21 contests overall this season. The question is whether Stanford can contribute enough to help this total along. While Arizona is tough defensively, the simple fact that it plays at such a fast pace tends to give the opposition plenty of scoring opportunities. Note that the Wildcats have allowed the opposition to connect on 26 or more field goals in six of their last seven games. The 'over' is 8-6 in Stanford's last 14 games following consecutive 'under' results and 23-17 in its last 40 contests following a win. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 21-16 in Arizona's last 37 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent and 14-9 in its last 23 contests following a home win by 20 points or more, as is the case here. Take the over (8*).

Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between California and Arizona State at 3 pm et on Saturday.

California ran into a buzz saw in Arizona on Thursday, dropping a 91-65 decision. That game still managed to stay 'under' the total - the Bears second straight 'under' result. Meanwhile, Arizona State checks in off a relatively low-scoring home defeat at the hands of Stanford on Thursday. The Sun Devils have struggled to find their shooting legs in recent games but should be afforded plenty of opportunities against a very forgiving Cal defense on Saturday. Note that the Bears have allowed eight of their last 10 opponents to knock down 25 or more field goals. They've also yielded 58 or more field goal attempts in nine of their last 10 contests. On the flip side, Cal has at least been consistent offensively, connecting on 25 or more field goals in six straight games entering Saturday's action. The Sun Devils rank an impressive 44th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom but that's largely based on early season returns. They've allowed five of their last six opponents to make good on 25 or more field goals. Note that the pace was there in the first meeting between these two teams this season (both hoisted up 60+ field goal attempts) but we saw just 48 combined made field goals in a game that cruised 'under' the total with 140 points. Note that the 'over' is 14-9 in Cal's last 23 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. The 'over' is also 13-11 in the Bears last 24 contests following a road loss. Arizona State has seen the 'over' go 6-4 in its last 10 games following a home loss in-conference and 7-4 in its last 11 home contests with the total set between 140 and 149.5 points. Take the over (10*).

Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Jose State and Nevada at 11 pm et on Friday.

San Jose State sits tied for last place in the Mountain West Conference with just one win in eight games this season. Meanwhile, Nevada is 3-4 and staring up at seven other teams in the conference. Needless to say, I don't expect either team to play lock-down defense on Friday night in Reno. Note that San Jose State is on an incredible run of defensive futility as it has allowed five straight opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field with its last four foes knocking down 33, 34, 30 and 30 field goals. Nevada should be in a foul mood after connecting on just 19 field goals in a blowout loss at New Mexico last time out. Note that the Wolf Pack had made good on 35 and 39 field goals in their two previous contests. They've gotten bogged down by the better teams they've faced in conference play but San Jose State certainly doesn't fall into that category. The question is whether the Spartans can produce enough offense to help this total along. I'm confident they can, noting they've actually been reasonably consistent offensively, making good on 24 or more field goals in 11 of their last 12 games. In fact, they rank a respectable 128th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season. San Jose state played quite slow early in the season but has picked up the pace, hoisting up more than 60 field goal attempts in six of its last 12 games. Note that the 'over' is 10-6 in the Spartans last 16 games as a double-digit road underdog and 8-3 in their last 11 contests following consecutive 'under' results. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 12-10 in Nevada's last 22 games following a loss in-conference and a long-term 21-8 in its last 29 contests after scoring 55 points or less in its previous game. Take the over (10*).

SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between South Carolina and Tennessee at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday.

South Carolina enters this game having scored more than 70 points in three straight games - all victories in SEC play. It will be hard-pressed to reach that number on Tuesday, however, as it travels to Rocky Top to challenge Tennessee and it's elite defense. The Volunteers check in ranked second in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Gamecocks will need to effectively shorten this game by relying on their methodical pace, noting they rank 348th (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). South Carolina can hold its own defensively as well as it has limited four straight and eight of its last 10 opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Offensively, the Gamecocks had a brief two-game outburst but that was against two poor SEC defenses in Arkansas and Kentucky. Last time out they knocked down just 23 field goals in a win over Missouri and they've been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in five of their last seven contests. I mentioned Tennessee's elite defense, it has held 12 straight opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals and nine of its last 11 foes to 23 or less. Note that the 'under' is 7-5 in the Gamecocks last 12 games following three straight ATS victories, including 3-1 in that situation this season. The 'under' is 22-17 in the Vols last 39 games following an ATS loss and 6-3 in their last nine contests after posting three straight wins by double-digits, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Marist and Canisius at 1 pm et on Sunday.

While Marist rides a three-game 'under' streak into this matchup on Sunday, Canisius snapped a two-game 'under' streak with an 'over' result on Friday. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair between these two MAAC squads on Sunday afternoon. Marist has dropped the cash in six of its last seven games and that's been more to do with its punchless offense than anything else. The Red Foxes check in ranked 337th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 321st in adjusted tempo, both according to KenPom. They've been held to 25 or fewer made field goals in seven of their last eight contests. While Canisius is certainly no defensive juggernaut, it has held three straight and four of its last five opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals. Marist actually sits just outside the top-100 (106th) in adjusted defensive efficiency. Red Foxes' opponents have had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down. Marist has limited five straight and nine of its last 10 foes to 54 or fewer field goal attempts. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Marist allowed more than 24 made field goals. In fact, it has held an incredible 13 of its last 14 opponents to 24 or less made field goals. The Golden Griffins offense did get loose on Friday but that was against one of the worst defensive teams not just in the MAAC but in the entire country in Manhattan. Prior to that contest, Canisius had been held to 26 or fewer made field goals in four straight games. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 29-18 in Marist's last 47 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. The 'under' is also 18-15 in Canisius' last 33 contests following an 'over' result. Take the under (10*).

SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Kentucky and Arkansas at 6 pm et on Saturday.

Arkansas has fallen into a serious shooting slump, connecting on 24 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight games entering Saturday's matchup with Kentucky. The good news is, the Wildcats are an NBA team disguised in college basketball uniforms and can drag any opponent into a track meet on any given day. Kentucky has allowed 33, 31, 31 and 29 made field goals over its last four games. The problem for the Razorbacks here isn't likely whether they can score on the Wildcats but whether they can stop them. Kentucky will undoubtedly be in a foul mood after dropping a 79-62 decision at South Carolina earlier this week. Note that the Wildcats have connected on 30 or more field goals in 14 of 18 games this season. It's worth noting that the Hogs had knocked down at least 26 field goals in 10 of their first 13 games before falling into their recent funk. The 'over' is 22-11 in Kentucky's last 33 games following an 'under' result, as is the case here. The Wildcats have also posted a perfect 9-0 'over' mark in their last nine games following a road loss. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 7-3 in the Razorbacks last 10 games following consecutive defeats in-conference. The 'over' is also 6-1 in their last seven contests following a loss by 15 points or more including 2-0 the last two times they've come off a 20+ point setback. Take the over (10*).

Big 12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas State and Houston at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Kansas State was involved in a higher-scoring game than expected against Iowa State on Wednesday. It had little to do with the pace of that contest, however, as the Wildcats hoisted up only 49 field goal attempts while the Cyclones countered with 51. Both teams knocked down an identical 22 field goals. That's about par for the course when it comes to Kansas State. It has limited six of its last seven opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. While Houston boasts its share of offensive talent, the Cougars are still at team that hangs their hat on their defense. Houston checks in having held 18 of 19 opponents to 22 made field goals or fewer. In fact, the Cougars are just one game removed from limiting Central Florida to a ridiculous seven made field goals. Also note that Houston ranks 350th in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). The Cougars will take what the opposition gives them on offense but in this case that's not likely to be much against a Wildcats squad that is sure to be in a foul mood following Wednesday's loss. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 59-49 with Kansas State coming off a road loss against a conference opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-15 in the Cougars last 38 games following an 'over' result, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Mount St. Mary's and Quinnipiac at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring results last time out but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up on Thursday. Mount St. Mary's ran into a red hot Niagara squad on Sunday, falling by a score of 82-71. Note that the Mountaineers have seen the 'under' go 10-2 in their last 12 games following an upset loss. Mount St. Mary's has allowed just one of its 18 opponents to knock down more than 30 field goals this season. While that's a reasonably high number of field goals to use as a benchmark, it works in the context of this game with the total set in the low-150's at the time of writing. Quinnipiac has reeled off five straight victories going 4-0-1 ATS over that stretch. It actually doesn't run all that efficient of an offense but thrives on pushing the pace, something I'm not sure it will be able to do as much as it would like on Thursday (Mount St. Mary's has held opponents to just 57 field goal attempts per game on the road this season). Much of the Bobcats success has come as a result of a rather soft schedule, noting they've faced only the 358th most difficult schedule (out of 362 Division-I teams) in the country according to KenPom. The 'under' is 9-4 in Quinnipiac's last 13 contests following consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 6-2 in the Bobcats last eight contests when coming off a home win in which they scored 85 points or more. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas State and Iowa State at 9 pm et on Wednesday.

Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results last time out but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up on Wednesday. Kansas State ranks 261st in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom, while also checking in sporting the 21st best defense in the country (in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency). The Wildcats have held an incredible five of their last six opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. The Cyclones are a good but certainly not great offensive team. They did knock down 29-of-62 field goal attempts in an upset win at TCU last time out but that represented a high-water mark over their last five contests. They've connected on 27 or fewer field goals in five of their last seven games overall. On the flip side, Iowa State has been even better than Kansas State defensively, ranking an impressive third in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. It has limited eight of its last 10 opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. In fact, the opposition has had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down against the Cylones, hoisting up 51 or fewer field goal attempts in six of the last eight games against them. Kansas State doesn't figure to push all that hard in that department, attempting 54 or fewer field goals in four straight and six of its last seven games heading in. Note that the 'under' is 8-4 in the Wildcats last 12 games following consecutive home wins, as is the case here. The 'under' is an identical 8-4 in Iowa State's last 12 contests following consecutive 'over' results and 12-7 in its last 19 games following an upset victory. Take the under (8*).

MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Peter's and Fairfield at 7 pm et on Friday.

Fairfield is riding a six-game 'over' streak entering Friday's matchup against St. Peter's. I believe that streak is in serious jeopardy here, however, as the Peacocks roll into town sporting a top-100 defense (in terms of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency rankings) but an exceptionally slow (and reasonably weak) offense. Fairfield's defensive play has been subpar for most of the season but I question whether St. Peter's can take full advantage. The Peacocks did score 81 points in their most recent game but that was against a lifeless Manhattan squad. Note that St. Peter's has been held to 22 or fewer made field goals in seven of its last eight games. On the flip side, it has incredibly held all 14 opponents it has faced this season to 24 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 18-11 in the Peacocks last 29 games following an in-conference victory. The 'under' is also 13-8 in their last 21 contests following a double-digit win. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-4 in the Stags last 17 games following a double-digit win in an underdog role, as is the case here. When that win came on the road, the 'under' has gone a perfect 9-0 over that stretch. Take the under (10*).

ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Georgia Tech and Clemson at 9 pm et on Tuesday.

This one sets up as a high-scoring affair between two struggling ACC squads on Tuesday. Georgia Tech has lost five straight games, going 1-4 ATS over that stretch. The Yellow Jackets do play an entertaining brand of basketball if nothing else having knocked down 25 or more field goals in seven of their last eight contests. The problem is they've operated a matador-like defense, allowing their four ACC foes to date to connect on 31, 35, 24 and 27 field goals. They were fortunate in the latter two games as both Notre Dame and Duke shot poorly but actually got into the 60's in terms of field goal attempts. In fact, four straight and 12 of Georgia Tech's last 15 opponents have hoisted up at least 60 field goal attempts. Clemson snapped a three-game losing streak with an 89-78 win over Boston College last time out. The Tigers have been outstanding offensively, knocking down 30 or more field goals in five of their last seven games. On the flip side, they've allowed three of their four ACC opponents to make good on 30 or more field goals. Note that the 'over' is 17-13 in the Yellow Jackets last 30 games following an in-conference loss. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 24-19 in Clemson's last 43 contests off an ATS victory. Take the over (10*).

Big 12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and Kansas State at 8 pm et on Wednesday.

Kansas State faces a tall task as it looks to avoid a two-game skid when it hosts Baylor on Tuesday. The Bears have been ultra-efficient offensively this season, ranking fourth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (according to KenPom). I do question whether we'll see Baylor thrive in this particular matchup, however, noting that Kansas State has held four straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals and seven of its last nine foes to 23 or less. In fact, the Wildcats check in 31st in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). Neither team really pushes the pace with the Bears ranking 219th and the Wildcats' 267th in adjusted tempo. Note that the 'under' is 11-3 in Baylor's last 14 games following a win by six points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 27-19 in Kansas State's last 46 contests off an ATS win but SU loss as an underdog. Take the under (10*).

MAAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Quinnipiac and Marist at 7 pm et on Friday.

This game features a contrast in styles as Quinnipiac ranks 30th in the nation in adjusted tempo according to KenPom while Marist checks in 303rd in that same category. It won't be easy for the Bobcats to bait the Red Foxes into an up-and-down affair here, however, noting that Marist has hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts just twice this season. Meanwhile, the Red Foxes have held the opposition to just 17, 21, 16 and 19 made field goals in their four home games this season. I do think Marist can control the tempo here as a short home favorite. Note that the Red Foxes are coming off three straight losses while Quinnipiac made the most of its two MAAC home games last weekend, going 2-0. While the Bobcats have proven rather vulnerable defensively this season, they should benefit from facing Marist here. The Red Foxes have knocked down more than 23 field goals just twice in their last seven contests. The 'under' is 16-10 in the Bobcats last 26 games following consecutive wins. The 'under' is also 9-3 in the Red Foxes last 12 contests following consecutive ATS defeats. Finally, the 'under' is 62-46 in Marist's last 108 games after giving up 80 points or more in its previous contest. Take the under (10*).

Big 12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Iowa State at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

Iowa State has been able to force the issue offensively this season to generally positive results. It ranks 88th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Cyclones figure to face a stiff challenge here, however, as they host undefeated Houston. The Cougars sit 325th in the nation in adjusted tempo and no team ranks higher in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. In fact, only one of Houston's 14 opponents this season has managed to knock down 20 or more field goals. As I mentioned, Iowa State has shown out offensively at times but when stepping up in class (in games where the pointspread has closed at six points or less) it has been held to 62 points against Virginia Tech, 69 points against Texas A&M and most recently 63 points against Oklahoma this past Saturday. For Houston, this will be just its second true road game this season. In the Cougars lone previous road tilt they scored just 66 points in a six-point victory at Xavier. Note that the 'under' is 22-12 in the Cougars last 34 games following a double-digit home win, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone 22-13 in Iowa State's last 35 contests following an ATS loss and 14-8 in its last 22 games after a loss against an conference opponent. Take the under (10*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Canisius and Rider at 2 pm et on Sunday.

While a track meet between two struggling MAAC squads is probably the last thing on the mind of most bettors on a busy Sunday of sports action, I think we have an excellent spot to play the 'over' in this matchup. The Golden Griffins opposition has been stuffing the boxscore lately, knocking down 33, 31, 28 and 30 field goals in their last four games and Rider figures to take full advantage. The Broncs have lost three games in a row and are desperate for their first victory in conference play following another loss - by an 88-84 score - on the road against Quinnipiac on Friday. Like Canisius, Rider has been vulnerable defensively, allowing 28, 29, 27, 30 and 30 made field goals in its last five contests. Both teams are capable offensively. Rider knocked down 33 field goals in Friday's defeat while Canisius had an off shooting night but still got off a whopping 68 field goal attempts. The last time these two teams met last February they combined to score 159 points. Note that the 'over' is 17-6 in Rider's last 23 home games following three straight losses. The 'over' is also a long-term 116-84 with Canisius playing in a road underdog role. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Washington State and Colorado at 2 pm et on Sunday.

As long as Washington State keeps playing at the pace it has, the points will come. The Cougars have hoisted up 64 or more field goals attempts in five of their last nine games and figure to be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities against Colorado on Sunday as well. The Buffaloes allowed Washington to get off 65 field goal attempts in Friday's narrow victory - the Huskies simply had an off shooting night. In that vein, the Buffaloes didn't shoot particularly well either but should rebound here. Washington State has gotten progressively worse defensively, most recently allowing Utah to connect on 29-of-61 field goal opportunities in Friday's 80-58 loss. Take the over (8*).

Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Colorado at 9 pm et on Friday.

You would have to go back to January of 2021 to find the last time these two teams eclipsed the total we're working with on Friday night. I think that changes here. Washington doesn't figure to pose much of a defensive threat against the high-flying Buffaloes. The Huskies have allowed opponents to hoist up an average of 64 field goal attempts per game this season with that number rising to 67 on the road. There is reason to believe Washington can keep pace to a certain extent. The Huskies didn't turn in their best performance last time out against Eastern Washington but still scored 73 points on just 23 made field goals. They're averaging 30 made field goals per contest this season. Colorado plays at a faster tempo at home, where it has yielded an average of 61 field goal attempts per game to the opposition this season. Both teams rank inside the top-90 in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Take the over (10*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Duke and Michigan State at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

While I do like Duke to bounce back from Friday's home loss against Arizona, I don't think the oddsmakers have its backers any favors by installing them as two-possession favorites against Michigan State at the United Center on Tuesday. Michigan State enters with perhaps just as big of a chip on its shoulder after it dropped a stunning home-opening loss to James Madison (before bouncing back with a blowout victory over Southern Indiana). Regardless, I expect both teams to go flat out in an effort to re-establish themselves in the national rankings (the Blue Devils fell from second to ninth while the Spartans tumbled from fourth all the way to 18th). Note that Michigan State has allowed each of its first two opponents to get out and run with both hoisting up at least 60 field goal attempts. Duke won't shy away from pushing the pace here as it has attempted 59 and 65 field goals through two contests. You only have to go back to the 2022 NCAA Tournament to find the last time these storied programs met and the result was an 85-76 Duke victory. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Duke at 7 pm et on Friday.

While the betting majority will likely be on this play with us on Friday, that doesn't mean it's the wrong one. I simply feel this game will resemble a pro-style contest with the Wildcats and Blue Devils vying to remain perfect on the young campaign. Duke probably doesn't want to get involved in a track meet with Arizona but I'm not sure it will have a choice in the matter, even at home. The Wildcats will run, run and run some more and it's just too early in the season for the Blue Devils to truly have their wits about them defensively. On the flip side, Duke is favored for a reason in this contest and it will undoubtedly hold its own offensively against what projects to be an average Arizona defense (its first opponent of the season Morgan State turned the basketball over 25 times and made good on only 22 field goals yet still put up 59 points). Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Northern Iowa and North Texas at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

No team played slower than North Texas last season as it ranked 363rd out of 363 teams in adjusted tempo but that was by design as it also finished 18th in adjusted defensive efficiency, riding that hard-nosed defensive style to a NIT championship. While Ross Hodge is the new head coach, nothing is likely to change as Hodge has been running the Mean Green Eagles defense for a number of years. All indications are that his players have bought in during practices and I don't anticipate North Texas missing a beat defensively out of the gate this season. Northern Iowa returns its top five scorers from last season under long-time head coach Ben Jacobson. The Panthers have been a middling bunch in terms of pace under Jacobson but there's been a renewed focus on playing good defensive basketball entering the 23-24 campaign. “We were awful last year defensively,” Jacobson said in late October. “We’ve spent a lot of time working (on that). So we have got a defensive team we can count on.” I believe this total will prove too high. Take the under (8*).

Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Connecticut at 8:45 pm et on Saturday.

Miami has now seen each of its last three games go 'over' the total, matching its longest such streak of the season. The last time it came off three consecutive 'over' results, its next contest totalled only 134 points in a narrow loss to Duke back on January 21st. Last time out, the Canes couldn't miss from the field (they ended up shooting 59%) in a come-from-behind win over Texas. The Longhorns inexplicably decided to run with the Canes and did find some success offensively, knocking down 30-of-60 field goal attempts themselves but it wasn't enough. I don't think we'll see Connecticut push the pace nearly as much here, noting it ranks outside the top-200 in the country in terms of adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). While the Huskies have been red hot offensively, I don't think their best chance at winning this game comes by getting involved in a back-and-forth track meet with Miami. The Canes are certainly in line for some regression offensively after scoring 85+ points and knocking down 34, 31 an 29 field goals over their last three games. Keep in mind, this is the same team that narrowly avoided the upset against Drake in the opening round, scoring only 63 points on 17-of-56 shooting in that contest. Lost in UConn's tremendous run offensively is the fact that it has been playing exceptional defense. You would have to go back nine games, all the way to February 25th against St. John's, to find the last time it allowed an opponent to make good on more than 24 field goals. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-1 with Miami playing away from home after allowing 80 points or more in its previous game over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 134.9 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 7-1 with UConn playing away from home after winning three or more games in a row ATS this season, which is also the situation here, resulting in an average total of 132.4 points in that spot. Take the under (10*).

NIT Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Utah Valley and UAB at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday.

We missed with the 'over' in Utah Valley's 'upset' win over Cincinnati in the quarter-final round of the NIT last week as that contest stayed just 'under' the total thanks to a miserable shooting performance from the Bearcats (27-of-79 from the field). I think it's notable that the Wolverines allowed Cincinnati to hoist up just shy of 80 field goal attempts in that game. They figure to face a similar up-tempo approach from UAB here, noting that the Blazers have gotten off 63, 71, 66 and 64 FG attempts over their last four games yet somehow all four of those contests stayed 'under' the total, only serving to provide us with a reasonably-priced total here. In fact, UAB ranks 32nd in the nation in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom, just 10 spots ahead of Utah Valley. The Blazers have allowed each of their last five opponents to get off at least 60 FG attempts and Utah Valley is well-positioned to take advantage. The Wolverines have knocked down 27, 28, 40, 26, 31, 34, 33 and 25 field goals over their last eight contests with the two outliers coming in games where they still scored 72 and 74 points. Utah Valley comes off that 'under' result against Cincinnati but hasn't posted consecutive 'unders' over its last six contests. Take the over (10*).

Elite Eight Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Texas at 5:05 pm et on Sunday.

While I can understand the logic behind this total sitting in the high-140's on Sunday, I believe it will prove too high. Miami comes off consecutive 'over' results. It hasn't seen three straight games go 'over' the total since January 11th to 16th - the only previous time this season it produced such a streak. Texas had its seven-game 'under' streak snapped in its win over Xavier on Friday. The Longhorns haven't posted consecutive 'over' results since February 6th and 11th. Texas has been on fire offensive, knocking down 31 or more field goals in each of its last four contests. It figures to be tested here, however, noting that while Miami's offense has impressed, it's defensive play has perhaps been even better, holding all three opponents in this tournament to 26 or fewer made field goals. Despite allowing Alabama to get off 64 field goal attempts on Friday, it still allowed just 24 made field goals. The Hurricanes have made good on 29 or more field goals in four of their last five games overall. Keep in mind, Texas hasn't allowed an opponent to reach that number since way back on February 18th against Oklahoma. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-2 with the Canes playing away from home after scoring 75 points or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 140 points in that spot. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Connecticut and Gonzaga at 8:45 pm et on Saturday.

While I'm not a big proponent of backing the 'over' in the Elite Eight after the Sweet 16 proved so high-scoring (six of eight games went 'over' the total), I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set this total high enough. Gonzaga is approaching uncharted territory defensively right now as it has matched a season-high by holding eight straight opponents to 30 made field goals of fewer. The only previous time it reached that mark it allowed 81 points on 31 made field goals in a game that totalled 169 points against BYU in mid-February. Note that the Bulldogs have allowed more than 30 made field goals on seven previous occasions this season and those contests have totalled 167, 172, 190, 199, 157, 169 and 185 points. Connecticut figures to test the Zags defense here, noting that the Huskies are arguably the hottest offensive team still playing in this tournament. Since February 22nd, they've knocked down 30 or more field goals in five of nine games with the low-water mark being 25 made field goals in a game where they still scored 71 points. Defensively, UConn has also been on point but has certainly benefited from the opposition it has faced in this tourney. First, it went against an overmatched MAAC squad in Iona. Then came a matchup with slow-paced Saint Mary's and finally an injury-plagued Arkansas squad that looked lost after the first few minutes on Thursday. Here, I do think we'll see the Zags give the Huskies a stiff test and I think that lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (8*).

Sweet 16 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Houston at 7:15 pm et on Friday.

We won with the 'over' in Houston's second round rout of Auburn and also cashed the same play in Miami's stunning lopsided win over Indiana. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in as the Hurricanes and Cougars meet in Sweet 16 action on Friday, however. As a considerable underdog, I think Miami will have a keen interest in limiting the number of possessions in this one. Keep in mind, the Canes check in sporting a defense that ranks outside of the top-100 in the country in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) not to mention the fact they're up against a Houston squad that sits an impressive eighth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. Of course, the Cougars should be easily convinced to keep this one at a methodical pace, noting that they rank 342nd (out of 364 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Only one team remaining in this tournament ranks higher than Houston in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency and that's Alabama. Note that while the Cougars did hang 81 points on Auburn last time out, they needed 60 field goal attempts to get there. Houston has still gotten off 57 or fewer field goal attempts in five of its last seven games. Meanwhile, Miami is almost certainly in for a letdown here after connecting on 34-of-70 field goal attempts in its rout of Indiana. The Canes jumped ahead by a considerable margin early and were able to dictate the pace from there. I don't anticipate them being nearly as successful in doing so against Kelvin Sampson's Cougars. Note that only one of Houston's last six opponents and two of its last nine have managed to knock down more than 20 field goals. While Miami's defense isn't on nearly the same level, it has proven capable of stepping up. A dominant defensive effort against Duke back in February comes to mind. Also note that the Canes have at least limited four of their last five foes to 27 or fewer made field goals. Finally, I'll point out that Miami hasn't seen consecutive games go 'over' the total since late January-early February. The same goes for Houston. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Arkansas and Connecticut at 7:15 pm et on Thursday.

We won with the 'under' in Arkansas' SEC Tournament swan song against Texas A&M two weeks ago and since then, the Razorbacks have rattled off two more 'under' results in NCAA Tournament action. I look for that three-game 'under' streak to come to an end on Thursday, however, as the Hogs take on Connecticut in a Sweet 16 matchup. Arkansas staged an improbable upset of Kansas last Saturday despite getting just four points combined on 1-of-10 shooting from pro prospects Nick Smith Jr. and Anthony Black. Smith contributed only four points in the first two tourney games. Of course, he hasn't necessarily been the same player since returning from a knee injury that has plagued him for much of the season but the fact is, he scored in double-figures in seven straight games leading up to this tournament so there's reason to be confident that he can chip in a whole lot more here on the second weekend of the tournament. Black re-aggravated a foot injury against Kansas but all indications are that he'll play here. He's been playing through the pain and entered the Kansas game having scored in double-figures in four of the last five contests. Again, expect more out of him offensively in this one even if the foot injury does limit his quickness (I believe it's more of a concern at the defensive end of the floor). On the flip side, Connecticut has been one of the hottest offensive teams in the country in recent weeks, knocking down 26 or more field goals in eight straight games and scoring 87 or more points on four occasions in the last month alone. The Huskies were able to bully overmatched Iona and Saint Mary's offenses last weekend but I expect them to have their hands full here. Note that Arkansas, even with its key injuries, has made good on more than 20 field goals in an incredible 19 of its last 20 games overall. Defensively, the Hogs have allowed six of their last seven opponents to knock down at least 24 field goals with the lone exception coming in their NCAA Tourney opener against Illinois - a game that still reached 136 total points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with UConn coming off a game in which it allowed 55 points or less this season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 154 points. The 'over' is also 17-8 with the Huskies having held consecutive opponents to 65 points or less over the last two seasons, which is also the situation here, leading to an average total of 145.1 points in that spot. Take the over (8*).

NIT Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Utah Valley State at 9 pm et on Wednesday.

We saw a couple of predictably low-scoring affairs in NIT quarter-final action last night but I expect a much different story to unfold as Cincinnati and Utah Valley State do battle in the second half of Wednesday's double-header. Utah Valley State succeeded in speeding up a favored Colorado team that probably would have preferred a slower tempo (with its 30th-ranked defense) on Sunday, pulling away for a convincing 81-69 victory in Boulder. I don't think the Wolverines will have any difficult coaxing red hot Cincinnati into an up-tempo affair here, noting that the Bearcats rank 114th (out of 364 Division I teams) in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. The difference is, Cincinnati can take advantage of that fast pace, noting that it ranks an impressive 46th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). The Bearcats have incredibly knocked down at least 29 field goals in five of their last six games with the lone outlier coming in their conference championship game against Houston - one of, if not the best defensive team in the country. For their part, the Wolverines enter red hot offensively as well having made good on 27, 28, 40, 26, 31, 34 and 33 field goals over their last seven contests. Cincinnati has actually seen each of its last four games stay 'under' the total which means it is approaching uncharted territory, noting its longest previous 'under' streak this season lasted five games, that coming back in January. We're starting to see the totals creep downward as a result of the Bearcats 'under' streak, noting that their last two games saw closing numbers of 155 and 150. I believe tonight's total will prove too low. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Indiana at 8:40 pm et on Sunday.

Both of these teams saw their first round games stay 'under' the total and we won with the 'under' in Indiana's double-digit victory over Kent State. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'over' as the Hoosiers take on Miami in the second round on Sunday. It's unlikely the Hurricanes will shoot as poorly as they did in their tournament opener. They knocked down only 17-of-56 field goal attempts in a come-from-behind win over Drake. They had a much larger margin for error against the Missouri Valley Conference champs than they will against Indiana on Sunday. Keep in mind, Miami does still rank 12th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and prior to Friday's contest had made good on 25 or more field goals in an incredible 13 straight games. Indiana certainly checks all the boxes defensively, but I'm not about to consider it elite in that department, sitting 44th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. You would have to go all the way back to January 31st to find the last time the Hoosiers held an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals. On the clip side, Indiana is one of the hottest offensive teams in the tournament having made good on 31, 25, 28, 27, 31 and 29 field goals over its last six games. Miami isn't stopping anyone, ranking 114th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Prior to Friday's game, the Hurricanes had allowed 27 or more made field goals in eight straight contests. I realize that this court in Albany has been a nightmare for shooters as a whole but that didn't stop UConn and Iona from combining to score 150 points so I do believe a high-scoring result is well within the realm of possibility here. Take the over (8*).

Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Auburn and Houston at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

While they'll have to work to do so, I think Bruce Pearl's Auburn Tigers can speed the snail's paced Houston Cougars up in Saturday's second round matchup. Since the Tigers ugly 46-43 loss at Tennessee back in early February we've seen the 'over' go 6-4 in their last 10 games. They've hoisted up at least 62 field goal attempts in six of those 10 contests as well and the four games where they didn't still totalled 152, 140, 149 and 149 points. Auburn enters this game on a tear offensively having knocked down 29, 28, 25 and 29 field goals over its last four contests but it's a much different story at the defensive end of the floor as it has yielded 32, 29, 25, 28 and 28 made field goals over its last five games. Houston was involved in an incredibly low-scoring affair against Northern Kentucky to open this tournament. Star guard Marcus Sasser appeared to re-aggravate his groin injury and was only able to play 14 minutes. His absence (he's likely to play but it remains to be seen for how long or how effective he can be) hurts the Cougars just as much defensively as it does offensively, noting that Northern Kentucky was able to get off a whopping 69 field goal attempts in Thursday's loss. Keep in mind, Sasser is one of the best defenders in the nation. While the Houston offense has sputtered recently, I'm not overly concerned as it ranks 11th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and has enough scoring depth to pick up the slack should Sasser not be able to handle his usual workload. I'm quite simply willing to bet against an Auburn defense that has looked out of sorts for the last month stepping up against the one-seed here. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Kent State and Indiana at 9:55 pm et on Friday.

Kent State enters the NCAA Tournament sporting a 12-20 o/u record in lined games this season but was involved in consecutive high-scoring affairs in the MAC Tournament semi-final and championship rounds. I do think the Golden Flashes generally want to slow things down when faced with considerable odds, as is the case here against Indiana. Remember, during their non-conference slate they went up against Houston and Gonzaga, both on the road no less, and held them to just 50 and 55 field goal attempts respectively in a pair of ATS wins. Indiana checks in off a high-scoring contest as well, falling by a 77-73 score against Penn State in the Big Ten Tournament semi-finals. The Hoosiers scored 80 or more points in 13 of their first 21 games this season but have topped out at 79 points over their last 12 contests. Defensively, Indiana probably doesn't get enough credit. It has held 12 of its last 17 opponents to 24 made field goals or fewer. Kent State ranks 111th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, noting that it has only faced the 284th most difficult slate of opponents from a defensive efficiency standpoint (according to KenPom). I noted earlier that the 'over' has cashed in the Golden Flashes last two games. That matches their longest such streak of the season, with the 'under' having cashed in their next game on both previous occasions where they came off back-to-back 'overs'. Take the under (8*).

First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Penn State and Texas A&M at 9:55 pm et on Thursday.

Both of these teams posted 'under' results in their respective conference tournament championship games but I look for a different story to unfold as they match up in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. I think the potential is there for Texas A&M to go off offensively after being held down by an elite, under-appreciated Alabama defense in the SEC title game. Penn State ranks 99th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom) and has shown no ability to limit its opponents' scoring opportunities over the last month or so, allowing more than 60 field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games overall. The Nittany Lions have yielded 24 or more made field goals in 12 of their last 15 contests overall and haven't limited an opponent to 20 or fewer made field goals since way back on December 29th (I realize that streak was kept intact thanks to overtime against Northwestern last week). Texas A&M can certainly play some defense but it's worth noting that it hasn't held an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals since February 4th against Georgia. It's worth noting that the Aggies have been a much different team away from their home floor as well, yielding an average of two more made field goals on two fewer attempts per game compared to their overall season average. Despite playing at a slow pace, the Nittany Lions have managed to knock down 22 or more field goals in five of their last six games and have only been held to fewer than 20 made field goals twice all season - an impressive feat considering they play in the Big Ten, which can be a slog of a conference at times. Penn State averages 10 made three-pointers per contest and travels well in that regard, averaging the same 10 made threes per game away from home, on one attempt fewer compared to its season average. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Furman and Virginia at 12:40 pm et on Thursday.

While anything can obviously happen, I believe there's a good chance this game ends up being akin to watching paint dry, yet here we are being offered a total in the 130's. Furman does play at a reasonably fast pace, ranked 124th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Of course, the Paladins haven't had to play all that methodically having faced the 271st most difficult schedule in the nation. The open looks have been there for the most part throughout the campaign and Furman has taken full advantage. Here, however, they'll be taking a big step up in class against one of the best defensive teams in the nation in Virginia. If Furman is to have any shot at pulling the upset here (as many seem to feel it can), it will need to use its excellent ball movement and patience at the offensive end of the floor to break down the Cavaliers. On the flip side, few teams have been able to speed up Virginia this season, and Furman doesn't figure to be able to (or have any interest in) doing so on Thursday. The Cavaliers rank 360th out of 363 Division I teams in adjusted tempo this season not to mention 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency. We certainly saw them lock in during the ACC Tournament, holding all three of their opponents to exactly 19 made field goals. Only one of their last 10 opponents has managed to get off more than 53 field goal attempts and that was Clemson in a game that totalled only 121 points. Take the under (8*).

First Four Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona State and Nevada at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We won with the 'under' in Arizona State's most recent game as it bowed out of the Pac-12 Tournament at the hands of eventual champion Arizona last Friday. Keep in mind, we were working with a total set well into the 150's in that game. It still went 'over' the number we're dealing with in this 'First Four' matchup on Wednesday. The Sun Devils quietly started pushing the pace more in early February and never relented the rest of the way. They check in having hoisted up more than 60 field goal attempts in eight of their last 11 games. The only three times they didn't we still saw the 'over' cash at a 2-1 clip. While I've sung the praises of the Sun Devils defense at times this season, the opposition has displayed a fairly solid 'floor' noting that Arizona State has yielded more than 20 made field goals in 18 of its last 20 games. The only team that failed to eclipse that number over that stretch was Oregon State - one of the weakest offensive teams in the country (278th in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom). Nevada hasn't really shown the ability to dictate its oppnents' pace, as evidenced by its last two games in which it allowed UNLV and San Jose State to get off 72 and 65 field goal attempts, respectively. The Wolfpack have certainly faced their share of tough defenses this season - the 66th toughest slate of opponents in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency in fact (again according to KenPom) - but made out just fine, ranking 61st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. There have been plenty of impressive performances along the way, including scoring 87 points against Kansas State, 75 points against San Diego State and 85 points against Utah State. Speaking of 'floors', you would have to go back 25 games to find the last time Nevada was held to fewer than 60 points (I do realize they'll likely need to get well past that number to help this total along). Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Princeton and Yale at 12 noon et on Sunday.

It's not easy to speed up this Yale team. Cornell found that out yesterday as the Bulldogs slowed things down a number of times when the pace was getting frenetic and perhaps starting to favor the Big Red. While Yale ultimately scored 80 points in the win, that had more to do with Cornell's defensive inefficiency than anything else (not to mention the fact that Yale knocked down 10 threes - it averages only seven per game on the season). Yale ranks 232nd in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom) and I'm confident we'll see it employ a 'grind-it-out' style again on Sunday against Princeton, which is coming off a 77-70 win over Penn yesterday. The Tigers are a middle of the road team when it comes to pace. I do think it would be in their best interest to 'ugly it up' a little bit in this one after dropping both regular season meetings with Yale, allowing 87 and 93 points in the process. While both of those contests went 'over' the total, we haven't seen three straight meetings in this series go 'over' since 2017-18. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Missouri and Alabama at 1 pm et on Saturday.

Alabama enters this contest off consecutive 'under' results and I'm confident we'll see a third straight on Saturday as this total has simply been set too high. Missouri stunned Tennessee on a scorching-hot shooting performance yesterday, notching its fifth straight victory. While the Tigers offense impressed, I'm not sure they'll be interested in trading blows with the Crimson Tide here, noting that Alabama barely broke a sweat in an 85-64 win in the lone regular season meeting. Interestingly, Missouri has found a way to slow down the opposition lately, allowing 56 or fewer field goal attempts in regulation time in six straight games entering Saturday's affair. Alabama had to lean on its own defense yesterday as its shooting touch just wasn't there against Mississippi State (the Tide knocked down 27-of-67 FG attempts). I'm anticipating a scrappier affair than most in this semi-final showdown on Saturday in Nashville. Take the under (8*).

Ivy League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cornell and Yale at 11 am et on Saturday.

These two teams just met on February 25th as Yale rolled to a 76-58 victory with that contest easily cruising 'under' the total, which closed in the low-150's. We're working with a lower posted total this time around but I'm not convinced the shift is warranted. Note that we haven't seen consecutive matchups in this series stay 'under' the total since all the way back in 2015-16. Cornell has been reeling to be sure but its slate is clean now as it needs two victories to book a spot in the NCAA Tournament. I certainly don't expect the Big Red, who rank 48th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom, to go down without a fight. While Yale does rank an impressive 62nd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, it has also only faced the 236th toughest slate of offensive opponents (based on average adjusted offensive efficiency). While we can sometimes project a sleepy start in these morning tipoff games, I don't think that will be the case here with both squads raring to go following a full week off. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona State and Arizona at 11:30 pm et on Friday.

These two teams were involved in one of the best games of the entire college basketball season on February 25th as Arizona State pulled off a stunning 89-88 upset win on a half-court, buzzer-beating heave. It's easy to forget that the first meeting of the season was a rather ho-hum 69-60 Arizona victory. It's notable that we haven't seen consecutive matchups in this in-state rivalry go 'over' the total since way back in 2016-17. It may surprise you to find out that Arizona State actually ranks an impressive 27th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite having faced the nation's 44th most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). While the Sun Devils were unconscious from the field against Arizona on February 25th, we can chalk that up as an anomaly as they've made good on just 21, 19, 23 and 23 field goals in four games since (they connected on 36 in the upset win over the Wildcats). We certainly haven't seen Arizona's best defensive basketball lately as it has allowed 24, 36, 26, 28 and 28 made field goals over its last five contests. I do think it catches Arizona State at the right time, however, and it's not as if the Wildcats have been down bad defensively all season as they still rank 55th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing the 43rd most difficult schedule (including the 80th toughest slate of non-conference opponents). Take the under (8*).

Big West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cal State-Fullerton and Cal-Irvine at 9 pm et on Friday.

Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring affairs on Thursday and I expect more of the same as they match up for the third time this season on Friday. The two regular season matchups were a bit of a mixed bag with the first totalling 135 points and the second reaching only 123 points. Fullerton has been an upstart this season, going an incredible 19-8 ATS in lined contests on the strength of a defense that ranks 81st in the country in adjusted efficiency (according to KenPom). The Titans are certainly capable of 'grinding it out', checking in 317th out of 363 Division-I teams in terms of adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Cal-Irvine is right there defensively as well, ranking 75th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, albeit playing at a considerably faster pace. The Anteaters have been particularly locked-in on defense lately, allowing 24 or fewer made field goals in nine of their last 10 games overall. On the flip side, Fullerton has impressively limited five of its last seven foes to 21 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back four meetings in this series to find the last time a team got off more than 56 field goal attempts and that contest still totalled 'only' 128 points back in January of last year. Take the under (10*).

SEC Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas and Texas A&M at 7 pm et on Friday.

These two teams were involved in an anomaly of a high-scoring affair in their first meeting this season as that contest totalled 151 points with Texas A&M getting off an otherworldly (by the Aggies own standards) 76 field goal attempts in a double-digit loss. The rematch proved far more 'normal', reaching only 118 points in a tightly-contested A&M home victory. I'm anticipating something in between here but do feel the total will prove too high. Arkansas has seen the 'over' cash in five of its last six games as a number of its recent opponents have quite simply shot the lights out. The pace hasn't necessarily been there for such high-scoring affairs, noting yesterday's game in particular where the Razorbacks and Auburn Tigers combined to hoist up only 101 field goal attempts yet we saw 149 total points scored. All told, the Hogs have limited seven of their last eight opponents to fewer than 60 FG attempts and I'm confident they'll do the same here, noting that Texas A&M ranks 244th in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom) and has gotten off 54 or fewer FG attempts in seven of its last eight contests. In fact, the Aggies have been held to fewer than 20 made field goals in four of their last six games yet here we find them in a pk'em price range against Arkansas. That lends itself to a relatively low-scoring affair in my opinion, noting that the Aggies have been nothing but consistent defensively, holding an incredible seven straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals, including the Razorbacks (to 22) on February 15th. Take the under (10*).

AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tulsa and Wichita State at 7 pm et on Thursday.

Both regular season meetings between these two teams surpassed the total we're dealing with on Thursday and I believe the number will prove too low once again. Tulsa enters this game on an 11-game losing streak, not to mention a four-game 'under' streak. The Golden Hurricane offense went in the tank down the stretch but I do think this is a favorable matchup, noting that Tulsa has hung relatively tough with Wichita State in all five meetings going back to the start of 2022, with the largest margin of defeat over that stretch being 11 points. The Golden Hurricane knocked down 27 and 25 field goals in this year's two matchups, scoring 69 and 75 points. The problem here is that Tulsa doesn't match up particularly well defensively. Wichita State has made good on 24 or more field goals in 10 of its last 11 games and faces a Tulsa defense that has yielded 25 or more made field goals in an incredible 19 of its last 21 games. I don't think the Golden Hurricane will shy away from an up-tempo affair here though, noting that they rank 146th in the country this season in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom) despite facing the 95th most difficult schedule. The Shockers stepped up with a dominant defensive effort against South Florida last time out but that might have just been an off shooting night for the Bulls as they still got off 58 field goal attempts. Prior to that, Wichita State had allowed at least 23 made field goals in 16 straight games, yielding 27 or more on eight occasions over that stretch. Take the over (10*).

Pac-12 Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and UCLA at 3 pm et on Thursday.

Colorado exploded in the second half against Washington yesterday, scoring 46 points on its way to a 74-68 win. Keep in mind, the Buffaloes M.O. this season has been their defense, ranking 19th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing the 43rd most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). I certainly expect to see the pace slow down in today's matchup (Colorado got off 66 field goal attempts in yesterday's win), noting that favored UCLA ranks 223rd in the nation in adjusted tempo this season and should be able to control proceedings much like it did during the lone regular season matchup between these two teams (the Bruins won that game 60-56 on February 26th). For UCLA, it has its sights set on a tournament championship, but also on much loftier goals starting next week. I'm not expecting a peak performance from the Bruins offense here, noting that even in an anomaly of a game that saw them hoist up 67 field goal attempts against up-tempo Arizona last time out, they still knocked down 'only' 28 field goals. Colorado enters this contest having held three straight opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals, including that aforementioned matchup with UCLA in which it yielded 22. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Duke at 2:30 pm et on Thursday.

While Pittsburgh is coming off a wild 89-81 win over Georgia Tech yesterday I think it knows that it is unlikely to enjoy similar success by employing that same style of play against Duke on Thursday. Case in point, the first regular season matchup between these two teams as the Panthers got off to a red hot start but ultimately gave the Blue Devils far too many scoring opportunities (66 field goal attempts) and paid the price in a 77-69 road loss in January. While Pitt has regularly gotten into the 70's, 80's and even 90's in terms of scoring this season, it's worth noting that it has only faced the 102nd most difficult schedule in the country - a relatively low rating for a team from a major conference. Here, it will be facing a Duke squad that checks in 27th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and 292nd in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). The Blue Devils have faced the nation's 72nd toughest slate of opponents. Another team with loftier goals beginning next week, but also with its sights firmly set on an ACC Tournament title, I'm not convinced we see Duke come out with a peak offensive performance in its opener in Greensboro. Both teams should have an interest in effectively shortening proceedings here, albeit for different reasons, and I think that lends itself to a lower-scoring contest than most are expecting. Take the under (8*).

ACC Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Wake Forest and Syracuse at 12 noon et on Wednesday.

This will be the second meeting in less than a week between these two ACC schools after Saturday's contest went Syracuse's way by a score of 72-63. That relatively low-scoring result has afforded us a lower posted total this time around. I believe it will prove too low. The pace was certainly there for a higher-scoring contest on Saturday but neither team was able to make the most of their scoring opportunities. Still, Syracuse has now allowed four straight and seven of its last eight opponents to hoist up 60 or more field goal attempts while Wake Forest has yielded 27 or more made field goals in 10 of its last 11 games. The Demon Deacons have struggled to adjust to life without Damari Monsanto after he went down with an injury on February 22nd. I do think facing the same opponent in succession will help their cause here, however, noting that they're favored for a reason in this game. They'll certainly need to pick up the scoring pace here as they can't expect Syracuse to shoot a woeful 2-of-14 from three-point range the way it did on Saturday (the fact that it still scored 72 points was impressive). Note that Wake does check in 63rd in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Take the over (10*).

Horizon League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland State and Wisconsin-Milwaukee at 9:30 pm et on Monday.

I like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair after Wisconsin-Milwaukee posted a rare 'under' result in its quarter-final matchup with Wright State. Monday's opponent, Cleveland State, has been a completely different team over the last month, hoisting up 60 or more field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games overall. Keep in mind, this is a team that still checks in 271st in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. The Panthers on the other hand rank 17th in the nation in that category. Note that Milwaukee checks in just 219th in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing just the 289th most difficult schedule in the country. I think the Panthers were fortunate to allow 'only' 72 and 70 points in their last two games despite yielding 74 and 68 FG attempts. Cleveland State figures to take advantage of Milwaukee's defensive warts, noting that the Vikings have knocked down 26 or more field goals in six straight games and 28+ in five of those contests. Take the over (10*).

Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Michigan and Indiana at 4:30 pm et on Sunday.

We'll fade the 'over' streaks for both of these teams on Sunday afternoon as Michigan enters on the heels of consecutive 'over' results while Indiana has seen each of its last three games go 'over' the total. I certainly don't think Michigan wants to get involved in another track meet here after allowing 70 field goal attempts in each of its last two contests. Prior to that, the Wolverines had held four of their last five opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. Despite their recent run of 'over' results, the Hoosiers have still made good on 25 or fewer field goals in five of their last seven games overall. Indiana continues to do a good job of limiting its opponents' scoring opportunities, yielding 58 or fewer FG attempts in seven of its last nine contests. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 123 points. We've seen a slight adjustment to the total for this rematch but I don't believe it will be enough. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa State and Baylor at 12 noon et on Saturday.

The first meeting between these two teams this season did sail 'over' the total but we're working with a higher number this time around and I believe it will prove too high. Iowa State made the most of its opportunities given its limitations offensively but still scored 'only' 69 points in its fourth straight loss, this one coming at the hands of West Virginia on Monday. You would have to go all the way back to February 4th to find the last time the Cyclones made good on more than 24 field goals in a game. They do continue to hold up well defensively, however, limiting six of their last nine opponents to 50 or fewer field goal attempts. They'll undoubtedly be looking to 'ugly it up' in this difficult road game against Baylor as well. Baylor has topped out at 26 made field goals over its last six games. The Bears aren't exactly pushing the pace, hoisting up fewer than 60 field goal attempts in seven straight games entering Saturday's contest. After allowing Texas and Oklahoma State to each get off 60 or more FG attempts in their last two games, I look for the Bears to clamp down on the Cyclones offense in this revenge spot. Take the under (8*).

Atlantic-10 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UMass and Duquesne at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set this total high enough with UMass coming off three consecutive 'under' results and Duquesne checking off a low-scoring game of its own. The first meeting between these teams this season produced 166 total points. Neither team shot particularly well in that contest but the game was played at an exceptionally fast pace. I expect a similar up-tempo affair here. The Minutemen had been rolling along offensively, having knocked down 25 or more field goals in seven of their last nine games, before running into a tough Dayton defense last time out. Meanwhile, Duquesne has connected on 25 or more field goals in eight of its last nine contests, making good on 28 or more in six of its last eight games. Both teams have been solid on occasion defensively, but not with any consistency. I just don't see either side shying away from a track meet here. Take the over (10*).

SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Florida and Georgia at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

We've seen a considerable adjustment to the total since the first meeting between these two teams this season - an 82-75 Florida victory back on January 7th. That game saw a closing total of 136 points. I believe the shift is warranted. Since that time, the Gators have lost forward Colin Castleton for the season with a hand injury. Much was made about the lost offense with Castleton sidelined, but there's a defensive aspect as well. Since Castleton went down, Florida has played three games. In those three contests, the Gators were torched for 34, 33 and 31 made field goals. While the reeling Bulldogs figure to offer a reprieve, at least on paper, I'm not so easily convinced. Note that Florida has been giving up scoring opportunities aplenty with 11 of its last 13 opponents hoisting up at least 60 field goal attempts. Georgia's offense has been stuck in the mud but has also been held to 56 or fewer field goal attempts in nine of its last 10 games. Here, I think we see the Bulldogs push the pace more than usual, noting that they got off a whopping 68 FG attempts in a loss but ATS cover in the last meeting between these teams. Note that Castleton had seven blocks and eight defensive boards in that game so his absence figures to open things up. I mentioned Florida's struggling defense but Georgia is in the same boat. The Bulldogs have allowed 39, 37 and 33 made field goals over their last three contests. Like Florida, Georgia has also had a difficult time slowing down the opposition, yielding at least 57 FG attempts in 15 of its last 17 games. After a lull in late January and early February, the Gators have connected on 32, 29, 22, 26 and 27 field goals over their last five games. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Siena and Iona at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We got precisely the results we wanted from both of these teams on Friday to set up this play on Sunday afternoon. Siena held a fifth straight opponent to fewer than 70 points but fell by a 69-66 score at Rider, eclipsing the total by a bucket. Iona, meanwhile, routed Mount St. Mary's by an 80-68 score, easily shooting north of the total. While the Gaels have become known for their high-powered offense over the years, it's been a bit of a different story this season. They've leaned heavily on their defense, which has arguably been the best in the MAAC. Iona enters Sunday's contest having held eight straight opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. Offensively, you would have to go back seven games to find the last time the Gaels got off more than 60 field goal attempts - a stark contrast to the pace we've seen from them in recent years. Siena doesn't figure likely to push the tempo here, noting that it hasn't hoisted up 60 or more field goals in any of its last nine contests. You would have to go back eight games to find the last time the Saints knocked down more than 23 field goals themselves. Siena ranks a respectable 138th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom) and hasn't allowed 60 or more field goal attempts in a game since New Year's Day and that contest against Fairfield still totalled only 131 points. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Purdue at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

The first meeting between these two teams this season got into the 150's as both sides shot exceptionally well in Indiana's 79-74 home victory. The pace wasn't necessarily there for a high-scoring affair, nor do I expect it to be there in Saturday's rematch. Note that Indiana has had a tough enough time just getting shots off lately, let alone knocking them down. The Hoosiers have hoisted up 53 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five games. On the flip side, only one of their last eight opponents has gotten off 60 or more field goal attempts and Purdue, which ranks 325th in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom) doesn't figure to challenge that here. The Boilermakers have limited six of their last seven opponents to 57 or fewer field goal attempts. Since connecting on a whopping 33 field goals in a rout of Iowa on February 9th, the Boilers have made good on just 17, 22 and 27 field goals over their last three contests. With Indiana having limited five straight and 11 of its last 12 foes to 26 or fewer made field goals, I don't anticipate anything coming easy in this one, even with revenge on the minds of the Boilers on their home floor. Take the under (8*).

Summit League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Oral Roberts and South Dakota State at 3 pm et on Saturday.

We got exactly the result we wanted from both of these teams two nights ago as they were both involved in lower-scoring than expected affairs to set us up with a reasonable total on Saturday. This is certainly a game South Dakota State has had circled since dropping an ugly 79-40 loss in its first meeting with Oral Roberts back in December. Note that the Jackrabbits enter this game on a serious offensive tear, having knocked down at least 27 field goals in six straight games, connecting on 30 or more in four of those contests. I do worry about South Dakota State defensively in this game, however, as it serves as a potential 'shock to the system' spot after holding a punchless UMKC offense to 50 points on 19-of-58 shooting on Thursday. Keep in mind, UMKC ranks 324th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 330th in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Oral Roberts represents a stark contrast, checking in 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 36th in adjusted tempo. Like South Dakota State, Oral Roberts has been on point offensively, making good on 30 or more field goals in six of its last seven and nine of its last 10 games overall. The Golden Eagles are vulnerable defensively, however, having allowed their last five opponents to knock down 30, 29, 25, 28 and 27 field goals. They've shown no interest (or ability) to slow their opponents' pace, yielding 60 or more field goal attempts in 12 of their last 14 games. South Dakota State might try to slow things down at times in this one but will be hard-pressed to do so against an ORU squad that has hoisted up 63 or more FG attempts in seven of its last nine contests. Projected to be playing from behind for much of this game as a considerable home underdog, I'm not convinced the Jackrabbits will be able to avoid the temptation of a track meet here. Keep in mind, it was almost a year to the day (February 24th, 2022) that these two teams were involved in a thriller that totalled a whopping 208 points. Take the over (10*).

MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Fairfield and Niagara at 7 pm et on Friday.

We got the result we wanted to set up this play in last Sunday's low-scoring 61-52 Niagara loss at Marist. While the Purple Eagles rate a ridiculous 350th in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom), the oddsmakers have adjusted their totals accordingly and we haven't seen them post consecutive 'under' results since January 20th and 22nd (only one of those games stayed 'under' the total we're working with tonight). Fairfield has seen each of its last three contests go 'over' the total. This isn't the same stout defensive Stags squad we've come to expect. They've allowed five of their last seven opponents to knock down at least 25 field goals (one of those results was aided by overtime). While Fairfield won't 'wow' you offensively, it has at least shown some consistency, making good on 21 or more field goals in 10 straight games entering Friday's matchup. This is an ideal 'get right' spot for Niagara's offense. It got off 59 field goal attempts but could only make good on 17 of them against an improved Marist squad last Sunday. On the flip side, you would have to go all the way back to December 18th to find the last time the Purple Eagles held an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals. They've yielded 24 or more successful field goal attempts in three of their last five contests. In the lone previous matchup between these two teams this season we saw 146 total points despite the two combining to knock down only seven three-pointers (they average 12 made threes per game combined this season). The pace was there in that game and Fairfield was able to get to the free throw line with consistency (as has often been the case this season as the Stags average 21 FT attempts per game). I like the fact that this game will be played at Niagara as the Purple Eagles have been a more efficient offensive team on their home floor, averaging two more made field goals per game compared to their season average, despite getting off one less field goal attempt on average. Take the over (10*).

Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington State and Stanford at 11 pm et on Thursday.

A lot has happened since these two Pac-12 squads last met back on January 14th. Most notably, the 'over' has gone 5-4 in Washington State's last nine games and 6-4 in Stanford's last 10 contests, including three straight Cardinal 'over' results entering Thursday's rematch. I'm expecting a game closely resembling what we saw back in January here, noting that game totalled just 119 points with both teams topping out at 22 made field goals and neither getting off more than 51 field goal attempts. Note that Washington State has held five of its last six opponents to 56 or fewer FG attempts. Stanford hasn't enjoyed the same type of defensive success and let's face it, the sudden uptick in the Cardinal's pace hasn't been working in their favor as they've lost four of their last five games. With that being said, I do think Stanford can get back on track defensively here, noting that Washington State ranks 328th in the country in adjusted tempo this season, according to KenPom. The Cougars knocked down 29 and 27 field goals last week as it enjoyed consecutive wins against Oregon State and Oregon. Prior to that they had been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last nine contests. This isn't a court where Washington State has enjoyed a ton of offensive success in recent years, knocking down 20, 22, 21 and 24 field goals in its last four trips. Stanford has been rolling along offensively, making good on 28 or more field goals in three straight games but again, that has had something to do with playing at a faster pace than we've been accustomed to seeing from the Cardinal. Note that it figures to face resistance here as Washington State ranks 53rd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency this season despite having faced the 15th most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Wake Forest and N.C. State at 9 pm et on Wednesday.

I'm not convinced the oddsmakers can set this total high enough as the Demon Deacons and Wolfpack renew acquaintances on Wednesday night in Raleigh. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 156 points back on January 28th. The pace was certainly there on that night as we saw a whopping 129 field goal attempts. The Wolfpack did their part, knocking down 32-of-69 shots from the field but the Demon Deacons had an off night shooting the basketball, connecting on only 26-of-60 field goal attempts. You could say that N.C. State has been fortunate that its last few opponents haven't been able to make the most of their scoring opportunities. The Wolfpack have allowed 61, 62 and 62 FG attempts over that stretch but none of those three foes managed to knock down more than 27. Wake Forest figures to test N.C. State in that regard here as the revenge-minded Demon Deacons have made good on 28 or more field goals in eight of their last 13 contests. On the flip side, Wake Forest leaves a lot to be desired defensively, having allowed its last seven opponents to knock down 28, 32, 27, 27, 30, 27 and 37 field goals. Meanwhile, N.C. State is locked-in offensively right now, pushing the pace and making the most of its scoring opportunities having connected on 37, 30 and 32 field goals over its last three games since an embarrassing 19-of-57 shooting effort against one of the best defensive teams in the country, Virginia, back on February 7th. All told, the Wolfpack have made good on 28 or more field goals in six of their last eight games overall. The Demon Deacons have shown little interest (or ability) to slow down their opponents, allowing 60 or more FG attempts in seven of their last nine games and 63 or more in four straight contests. This game is a matchup of two teams that both rank inside the top-75 in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Youngstown State and Robert Morris at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

While few are paying much attention, Youngstown State is currently on an incredible shooting run having knocked down 30 or more field goals in six straight games. In fact, you would have to go back 24 games - all the way to November 20th - to find the last time the Penguins were held to fewer than 26 made field goals. While the schedule has had something to do with it (they've faced the 326th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom), the fact that they rank 30th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (also according to KenPom) is impressive to say the least. While Robert Morris has held up well defensively of late (it has limited four straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals), the toughest offensive opponent it faced over that stretch was Cleveland State and the Vikings check in just 185th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 294th in adjusted tempo this season. Youngstown State should present somewhat of a 'shock to the system' here. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 'only' 134 points in a Penguins blowout victory. Keep in mind, Robert Morris made good on just one three-pointers and five free throws in that contest. The Colonials average eight made threes and 12 successful free throws per contest here at home where tonight's rematch will be played. Robert Morris is by no means an offensive juggernaut but has knocked down at least 21 field goals in 23 straight games and could catch Youngstown State letting its guard down here after the Penguins routed Milwaukee and Green Bay by 29 and 30 points in their last two games. Take the over (8*).

Big West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Hawaii and Cal State-Bakersfield at 8 pm et on Monday.

Bakersfield has quietly gone on a 9-0 'over' run over its last nine contests and that includes an earlier 72-69 loss on the road against tonight's opponent, Hawaii, back on January 28th. The Roadrunners were held to fewer than 20 made field goals in seven of their first 18 games this season but have since found some consistency at the offensive end of the floor, knocking down 22 or more field goals in each of their last eight games, despite ranking 344th in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. CSUB is also coming off a stellar defensive effort in an 'upset' win at Cal-Poly last time out. Stringing together strong defensive performances has proven difficult for the Roadrunners this season, however. Note that after holding an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals, they've allowed 72, 63, 79, 65, 71, 67 and 79 points in their next contest. They've actually held two of their last three foes to less than 20 successful FG attempts, but those games came against two of the country's weakest offensive teams in Cal State-Northridge and Cal-Poly. Hawaii ranks an impressive 66th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom but has also faced only the 272nd most difficult schedule (also according to KenPom). The Rainbow Warriors have actually allowed seven of their last nine opponents to make good on at least 23 field goals. They were fortunate Long Beach State couldn't make the most of its scoring opportunities on Saturday as the 49ers got off 60 FG attempts but only connected on 25 of them (Hawaii won that game 70-67). Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 31-16 in Hawaii's last 47 games as a road favorite or pk'em and 9-1 in CSUB's last 10 games when coming off an outright win as an underdog. Take the over (10*).

MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Rider and Quinnipiac at 2 pm et on Sunday.

When these teams last met this season they combined to score 'only' 135 points, easily staying 'under' the closing total of 143.5. We're working with a lower posted total this time around and I believe it will prove too low. Rider has gone on an offensive tear over the last month or so, knocking down 29, 30, 26, 28, 25 and 30 field goals over its last six games and that's without facing the conference's fastest-paced team, Iona, a single time over that stretch. The Broncs defensive numbers have been terrific lately as well. They had held 11 straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals before giving up 26 in Friday's 81-78 loss to Canisius. With that being said, those results were certainly due in part to the slow-paced opponents they faced. Here, they'll be up against a Quinnipiac squad that ranks 57th in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Like the Broncs, the Bobcats have been consistently good offensively of late, connecting on 27, 29, 23, 29, 24 and 24 field goals over their last six games. The problem for Quinnipiac is that it is still giving up too many scoring opportunities to the opposition, allowing nine consecutive opponents to hoist up at least 58 field goal attempts. Given how hot Rider has been from the field, there's a good chance it goes off here if the pace ticks up at all. With that being said, the Bobcats are favored for a reason. I'm confident both teams do enough offensively to help this one 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina and N.C. State at 1 pm et on Sunday.

These two teams combined to score 'only' 149 points in their first matchup this season. Interestingly, the Tar Heels scored 80 points in that game despite knocking down only 20-of-54 field goal attempts. The difference proved to be their ridiculous 36-of-39 performance from the free throw line. They were certainly fortunate that the Wolfpack couldn't make the most of their scoring opportunities in that game as N.C. State did get off 62 field goal attempts (connecting on only 26 of them). I would certainly anticipate a sharper offensive performance from the Wolfpack in this home rematch, noting that they enter on a serious tear having made good on 30 or more field goals in four of their last six contests. North Carolina has done a good job of keeping its opponents' pace down lately, but has still allowed 24 or more made field goals in eight straight games. Meanwhile, N.C. State has been fortunate that its last two opponents, Boston College and Syracuse, have had off nights shooting the basketball as those two foes hoisted up 61 and 62 FG attempts, respectively. North Carolina figures to be able to take advantage of that potential high shot volume, noting that it has knocked down 30, 32 and 29 field goals over its last three contests. Take the over (8*).

Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baylor and Kansas at 4 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the 'under' in the first meeting between these two teams this season as Baylor prevailed by a score of 75-69 in a game that saw the scoring fizzle in the second half. The Bears were fortunate to win that contest as they struggled to make good on their scoring opportunities, connecting on just 23-of-62 field goal attempts. While they're the underdog this time around, I do actually expect a better offensive showing, noting that they rank first in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom and enter this game having made good on 25 or more field goals in five straight games. Few teams are as locked-in offensively as the Jayhawks right now. They've knocked down 33 or more field goals in each of their last three games. While they've posted a couple of standout defensive performances over their last five contests I still think it's worth noting that they haven't held a single opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals in a game this season. Part of that has to do with the fact that they play at a fast pace, ranking 70th in the nation in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Kansas has hoisted up 60 or more FG attempts in five of its last six games overall and I'm confident we'll see it go on the aggressive in this 'revenge' spot on Saturday. Baylor, while a solid defensive team, has allowed nine consecutive opponents to knock down at least 24 field goals. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Boston College and Florida State at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Both of these teams are coming off poor offensive showings last time out but I see this as an ideal 'get-right' spot in that regard for both on Saturday. Boston College once again got into the 60's in terms of field goal attempts (for the third time in its last four games) but could only make good on 21 of those attempts against a terrific Pittsburgh team on Tuesday. The Eagles have still connected on 26 or more field goals in three of their last four contests and should benefit from facing a Florida State team that ranks 254th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. The Seminoles have apparently thrown defense out the window during a miserable 1-6 slide, allowing all seven of those opponents to knock down at least 25 field goals. Florida State is favored for a reason here, however. Boston College has also struggled defensively of late, allowing three straight opponents to hoist up 60 or more field goal attempts and six of its last seven foes to make good on at least 26 field goals. This is the first meeting between these two teams this season so it's a little tougher for the oddsmakers to gauge where exactly the total should be set. I believe it will prove too low. Take the over (8*).

Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Stanford and UCLA at 11 pm et on Thursday.

It's easy to forget that the first meeting between these two teams produced 146 points as that matchup took place way back on December 1st. Since then, UCLA has been an 'under' machine, cashing at a 12-5 clip over its last 16 games. That leads us to a lower posted total for this rematch. I believe it will prove too low. Stanford enjoyed a nice run in late-January but has largely been an afterthought in the Pac-12 this season. With that being said, I have a lot of respect for the Cardinal offensively, noting that they rank 64th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom, despite facing the nation's 63rd most difficult schedule (also according to KenPom). You would have to go back 19 games to find the last time Stanford was held to fewer than 20 made field goals in a game (I use that number as UCLA has held six of its last 11 opponents to fewer than 20 made field goals). Over their last five games, the Cardinal have impressively knocked down 28, 26, 24, 23 and 33 field goals. They've scored at least 62 points in eight straight contests. Unfortunately, the Cardinal defense hasn't been along for the ride, allowing 25, 29, 27 and 28 made field goals over its last four games. There's a good chance we see the Bruins offense go off in this one, noting that Stanford has also yielded more than 60 field goal attempts in three of its last four contests opening the door for a sharp-shooting Bruins squad that has made good on 25 or more field goals in four straight games, despite hoisting up 53 or fewer field goal attempts in two of those contests. UCLA ranks 24th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency despite having faced the 39th toughest slate of opponents to date (both according to KenPom once again). I do expect the Bruins to get pushed a bit in this one and I believe that lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Miami-Ohio and Toledo at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

These two teams just met on January 31st in a game that totalled 159 points. It's worth noting that both teams shot the lights out in that game with Miami-Ohio connecting on 31-of-58 field goal attempts and Toledo knocking down 33-of-64. It was a similar story in the Redhawks and Rockets previous matchup last February in Toledo as Miami-Ohio made good on a ridiculous 14 three-pointers (it averages six made threes per game on the road this season) while the Rockets knocked down 35-of-65 FG attempts. Here, we'll note that while Toledo does play fast, it doesn't play any faster at home compared to on the road and I do think Miami-Ohio can at least slow the Rockets down to a certain extent, noting that the Redhawks have limited opponents to just 55 FG attempts per contest on the road this season and check in having impressively limited their foes to fewer than 60 FG attempts in 11 of their last 13 games overall. While Miami-Ohio doesn't rate out well defensively this season according to KenPom, it has played better lately, holding 10 of its last 13 opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals and four of its last six to 26 or less. Offensively, the Redhawks are once again sputtering, having made good on 24, 24, 31, 22, 26 and 20 field goals over their last six contests. The lone outlier over that stretch came against Toledo but we've seen the Rockets right the ship defensively since, yielding just 20, 27 and 26 made field goals over their last three games, despite allowing 65 or more FG attempts in two of those three contests. After knocking down 30 or more field goals in four of five games from January 17th to 31st, Toledo has made good on just 28, 26 and 24 field goals over its last three games. While you would have to go back three meetings to find the last 'under' result in this series, we haven't seen three straight meetings go 'over' the total (or push) since 2016-17. Take the under (8*).