My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Connecticut at 8:50 pm et on Monday.

All credit goes to Connecticut for essentially going wire-to-wire against a good Illinois team on Saturday, marking its fourth straight ATS victory. Of note, that four-game ATS winning streak represents its season-high and I think it comes to an end in Monday's National Championship Game against Michigan. The Wolverines have also won four straight games ATS but they do have a six-game ATS winning streak to their credit earlier this season. Michigan has endured a couple of lulls over the course of the season but it's body of work is nearly impeccable as it checks in sporting a 36-3 record despite facing one of, if not the toughest schedule in all of college basketball. It's hard to call UConn an upstart at this point as it is a two-seed after all. I simply feel the talent gap will ultimately win out with the Wolverines winning by margin on Monday. Take Michigan (8*).

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My selection is on Tulsa plus the points over Auburn at 8 pm et on Sunday.

If you're looking at this matchup from a 'strength of schedule' perspective, it's truly no contest as Auburn has faced one of the most difficult slates of opponents in the country coming out of the SEC. However, we had success backing Tulsa in its 'upset' win over New Mexico in the semi-final round and I think it's catching too many points again in Sunday's final. The Golden Hurricane check in having won 10 of their last 11 games. Auburn meanwhile is entering uncharted territory as it rides a season-high four-game winning streak. With that being said, the Tigers are a miserable 4-13 ATS over their last 17 contests. I think the knee-jerk reaction for most casual bettors will be to lay the points with the bigger name program here but we'll go the other way and back the Golden Hurricane. Take Tulsa (8*).

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My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Arizona at 8:50 pm et on Saturday.

I've felt from the start that this was Michigan's tournament to lose. The Wolverines have endured a couple of long ATS losing streaks over the course of this season as they were clearly overvalued following a red hot start to the campaign. The script has flipped over the course of this tournament, however, as Michigan has gotten back to playing its preferred style of basketball and has gone on a three-game ATS winning streak entering Saturday's showdown with Arizona. Of note, the Wolverines do own a longer ATS winning streak this season, that lasting five games back in late November-early December. Arizona is entering uncharted territory as it has matched a season-high with five consecutive ATS victories entering Saturday's contest. While Arizona actually owns the slightly better overall record in this matchup this season, Michigan has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. There is certainly little to choose between these two tremendous teams. This is a difficult handicap to be sure but I simply feel that Michigan has been the class of college basketball this season and I think it will be ultra-difficult for Arizona to break down on Saturday. All the credit to the Wildcats for running the table ATS in this tournament to this point, but I look for them to get tripped up on Saturday. Take Michigan (8*).

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CBB Game of the Year. My selection is on Illinois minus the points over Connecticut at 6:05 pm et on Saturday.

While this looks like a toss-up to most, I think Illinois ultimately prevails and exacts revenge for its earlier 74-61 loss to Connecticut suffered way back in late November. Both teams are entering uncharted territory from a pointspread perspective. Illinois has reeled off a season-high four straight ATS victories while UConn has matched its season-high with three ATS wins in a row. I generally prefer to back a team coming off a win-and-cover as a favorite though rather than one off an outright 'upset' victory, as is the case with the Huskies. UConn is obviously very fortunate to be in this position as it looked like it was finished in the closing seconds against Duke on Sunday. Illinois endured a lull back in February, losing four of six games SU and ATS in Big Ten play. That culminated with a double-digit home loss to Michigan and it was considered an afterthought following that lopsided defeat. Since then, the Illini have undoubtedly played their best basketball of the season, going 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS over their last seven contests. While Illinois has been a pretty solid bet all season, going 22-14 ATS, UConn has generally been overvalued, logging a 15-23 ATS mark. Whether you like the way the Illini roster has been constructed or not, I think they're a team that's well-positioned to reach the National Championship Game at the very least. Take Illinois (10*).

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NIT Game of the Year. My selection is on Tulsa plus the points over New Mexico at 7 pm et on Thursday.

We can finally step in and fade the red hot Lobos of New Mexico on Thursday as we finally get them away from 'The Pit' for this NIT semi-final matchup in Indianapolis. The Lobos are in uncharted territory already as they ride a season-high six-game ATS winning streak that goes all the way back to their regular season finale. Tulsa hasn't been nearly the pointspread darling, going 1-5 ATS over its last six contests. With that being said, the Golden Hurricane have won nine of their last 10 games and are still playing some of their best basketball of the season. This is a team that owns four previous ATS winning streaks lasting at least three games this season so it's not as if it has been a lost cause against the number. We've seen Tulsa win games despite struggling to find its shooting legs in this tournament but perhaps a change of scenery to Hinkle Fieldhouse will serve it well in this matchup. We know the Lobos are a different animal away from home and I simply feel they're laying too many points in this particular matchup. Take Tulsa (10*).

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My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Tennessee at 2:15 pm et on Sunday.

The favorites rolled in the first two Elite Eight matchups last night and I'll call for that trend to continue for at least one more game on Sunday as Tennessee challenges Michigan in the early matchup. The Volunteers are coming off an impressive blowout win over a good Iowa State team on Friday, marking their third straight win both SU and ATS. Interestingly, the SU winner has also covered the spread in 15 of the Vols last 16 contests. They're in uncharted territory here as they're riding a season-high three-game ATS winning streak. Michigan comes off back-to-back ATS victories and appears to be peaking again at the right time. The Wolverines haven't been a great bet since getting off to a strong start this season but it's worth noting that they own three previous ATS winning streaks lasting more than two games. Owning the better overall record in this matchup this season and having faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics, we'll lay the points with the Wolverines here. Take Michigan (8*).

Elite Eight Game of the Year. My selection is on Purdue plus the points over Arizona at 8:45 pm et on Saturday.

Purdue has been good to us in this tournament, winning with it against Miami in the Round of 32, but we jumped off at the right time as the Boilermakers had their hands full and ultimately won on a last-second basket against Texas on Thursday. A lot of brackets will be depending on Arizona in this matchup as the Wildcats were one of the popular choices to cut down the nets in April. Arizona has now won four straight games ATS including each of its first three tournament contests (and we've been on board for all three of those wins). I think it's tough for favored teams like the Wildcats to run the table from an ATS perspective in the NCAA Tournament and can't help but think they're laying too many points in this matchup coming off an impressive blowout win over Arkansas two nights ago. Note that Arizona hasn't won more than four games in a row ATS since back in late November and into December. While the Wildcats do own the better overall record in this matchup this season, the Boilermakers have faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Purdue just isn't the same team that scuffled along at times during Big Ten play right now. Look for the Boilers to take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take Purdue (10*).

Sweet 16 Game of the Year. My selection is on Connecticut minus the points over Michigan State at 9:45 pm et on Friday.

Connecticut looks like an unpopular short favorite on Friday's Sweet 16 board and that's not overly surprising as Tom Izzo's Spartans figure to garner plenty of support from a lot of bettors. We'll go the other way and back the Huskies. Remember, UConn went toe-to-toe with the likes of Arizona and Illinois during its non-conference schedule and gave those two Elite Eight-bound opponents all they could handle, splitting the two games straight-up. I came away most impressed by the Huskies defense as they limited those two opponents to a combined 44-of-114 (38.6%) shooting. UConn enters this contest having held four of its last five opponents to 21 or fewer made field goals and I do think this is a matchup it can handle as well. While the Spartans may be thought of as more of a defensive-minded team, it has been their offense that has shone this season and certainly of late. Defensively, I think Michigan State is vulnerable and the numbers bear it out as it has allowed five straight opponents to knock down 25 or more field goals. While the Spartans have gone 2-0 ATS in this tournament, they haven't delivered three or more consecutive ATS victories since mid-January. UConn certainly hasn't been a pointspread darling either, going 7-15 ATS over its last 22 contests. With that being said, it does check in off an ATS victory following a two-game ATS slide, and those pointspread victories tend to come in two's as the Huskies have put together five previous ATS winning streaks this season. Take Connecticut (10*).

My selection is on Arizona minus the points over Arkansas at 9:45 pm et on Thursday.

We've won with Arizona in each of the first two rounds of this tournament and I won't hesitate to go back to the well again with the Wildcats on Thursday. I'm still not sure we've seen Arizona play its most complete basketball game in this tournament. Both victories came in dominant fashion but last time out the Wildcats only connected on 39% of their field goal attempts in a 78-66 win over Utah State. They'll need to be much sharper offensively to fend off an explosive Arkansas team and I'm confident they will be. While known for their offensive prowess, the Wildcats have been as locked-in defensively as any team in the country in recent weeks and months. Despite allowing eight straight and 15 of its last 19 opponents to get off more than 60 field goal attempts, Arizona has allowed just one opponent to connect on 30+ field goals over that stretch. It will certainly be tested here as Arkansas has knocked down 30+ field goals in an incredible 16 of its last 18 contests. I'm confident the Wildcats will be up for the challenge and I also expect Arizona's offense to snap back, noting that Arkansas has been vulnerable defensively, allowing nine of its last 11 foes to make good on 30+ field goals. The Razorbacks have allowed five straight and six of their last eight opponents to get off 65+ field goal attempts so the opportunities will certainly be there for Arizona to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard. Take Arizona (8*).

My selection is on Arizona minus the points over Utah State at 7:50 pm et on Sunday.

We won with Arizona in its opening round rout of Long Island and I won't hesitate to back the Wildcats again as they take on Utah State on Sunday. The Aggies are in uncharted territory as they've reeled off a season-high four straight ATS victories. They drew what I considered to be a favorable 9-8 matchup against Villanova in the opening round but they're not so fortunate here as they face a team playing as well as anyone in the country in Arizona. The Wildcats have delivered the cash in consecutive games and own two ATS winning streaks lasting three games or more this season. They own the better overall record in this matchup this season and have also faced the considerably more difficult schedule by most metrics. We'll lay the points. Take Arizona (8*).

My selection is on Purdue minus the points over Miami at 12:10 pm et on Sunday.

We'll lay the points with the Boilermakers on Sunday as I think they still have plenty of runway on the heels of consecutive ATS victories. Note that they own two previous ATS winning streaks lasting more than two games this season - one lasting three games and another going five. They've won five games in a row SU but own two longer winning streaks this season. Miami was never really tested in Friday's 80-66 win over Missouri. While the Hurricanes do own an identical overall record to that of the Boilermakers this season, Purdue has faced the much tougher schedule by most metrics. It's been a real grind for the Canes offensively in recent weeks but not so for the Boilers as they've been locked-in at that end of the floor since mid-February. Matt Painter's Purdue teams have reached the Sweet 16 five times since 2017 so it's not as if they're approaching uncharted territory here. Take Purdue (8*).

Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Arkansas minus the points over High Point at 9:45 pm et on Saturday.

High Point pulled off one of the biggest 'upsets' of the first round, taking down Wisconsin by a single point in a classic 12-5 matchup. Perhaps the Badgers weren't quite as good as most thought and the fact that they were a five-seed ended up telling us all we needed to know. Regardless, I like the way this sets up as a fade spot for the Panthers. Of note, High Point has now covered the spread in consecutive games. That puts it into uncharted territory as it has yet to deliver three straight ATS wins at any point this season. While the Panthers do own the better overall record in this matchup this season, the Razorbacks have faced the considerably more difficult schedule. Arkansas didn't overlook Hawaii in the opening round, turning in a near-flawless 97-78 victory. The Hogs have delivered the cash in consecutive games and have three previous ATS winning streaks lasting three games or longer. They've quite simply been one of the best bets in the country over the course of the entire season and I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set this line high enough on Saturday as High Point is sure to draw plenty of dog-hungry backers. Take Arkansas (10*).

My selection is on Houston minus the points over Texas A&M at 6:10 pm et on Saturday.

The knee-jerk reaction from most bettors will probably be to grab what looks like a generous helping of points with Texas A&M off its 'upset' win over Saint Mary's in the opening round of this tournament. We'll go the other way and lay the points with Houston - a team we won with in its rout of Idaho in the opening round. Credit the Aggies for defeating the Gaels in a defensive-minded affair on Thursday. They're still just 5-7 SU over their last 11 games, however, and I think this is a tough matchup for them stylistically. While Houston still carries a reputation for being a defensive powerhouse, its offense has been along for the ride this season as well. The Cougars enter this contest having connected on 28 or more field goals in five of their last seven contests. They continue to make opponents uncomfortable by pushing the pace, hoisting up more than 60 field goal attempts in five of their last eight games. Prior to Thursday's game, Texas A&M had yielded 30+ made field goals in three straight and four of its last five contests. Take Houston (8*).

My selection is on Duke minus the points over TCU at 5:15 pm et on Saturday.

Duke got its scare in the opening round of this tournament, narrowly avoiding a massive 'upset' against Siena. I don't expect the Blue Devils to struggle nearly as much getting past TCU on Saturday. We won with the Horned Frogs in their 'upset' victory over Ohio State on Thursday but it certainly didn't come easy. Of all the first round winners, I was perhaps least impressed by TCU. The Horned Frogs had so many chances to put the Buckeyes away in that game but just couldn't do it and ultimately needed a game-winning shot in the closing seconds to prevail. I think the Horned Frogs are going to have a difficult time staying out of foul trouble against the Blue Devils in this one. Even with Duke's injuries, there's still a wide talent gap and I fully expect the Blue Devils to ultimately pull away for a convincing victory. Take Duke (8*).

My selection is on Missouri plus the points over Miami at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

Missouri has to be pretty happy about its opening round draw as it gets Miami in its own backyard in St. Louis on Friday. The Tigers limp into this tournament off three straight losses both SU and ATS. While Miami does own the better overall record in this matchup this season, Missouri has faced the considerably more difficult schedule by most metrics. Miami took full advantage of a lull in its schedule in February with arguably its toughest matchup coming against North Carolina - a game that it got at home and won by nine points. Of course, that victory doesn't look quite as impressive now that we've seen the Tar Heels full body of work. Missouri has had some wild swings from a betting perspective this season going from overvalued to undervalued and back again. At this stage, I think the Tigers are being undervalued in this 10-7 matchup. While I certainly don't anticipate seeing a deep tournament run from Mizzou, I do think it will avoid being 'one-and-done' and we'll grab the couple of points as an added bonus. Take Missouri (8*).

My selection is on UCF plus the points over UCLA at 7:25 pm et on Friday.

Both of these teams are dealing with key injuries ahead of their first round matchup on Friday but it does appear both will have all hands on deck, even if everyone isn't 100% healthy. I get the feeling this will be a down-to-the-wire type of affair as the Knights and Bruins figure to match up well. Of note, UCLA enters this tournament in uncharted territory riding a season-high five-game ATS winning streak. The Bruins longest ATS win streak prior to that lasted only two games - a number they reached twice before getting 'upset' by California and Minnesota. Here, UCLA flips from an underdog role in its Big Ten semi-final loss but cover against eventual champion Purdue to a favorite against a punchy UCF team. The Knights have navigated a difficult schedule - tougher than that of UCLA by most metrics - to a 21-11 record this season. They have lost four of their last five games but one of those defeats came by a single point while two others needed overtime to decide. They've had over a week to stew over a blowout loss to Arizona in the Big 12 Tournament. I think that will serve as a good lesson as two just how much they'll need to step up their game as the stakes get higher. Keep in mind, they did take the Wildcats down to the wire in a seven-point loss but cover earlier in the campaign. I certainly don't think this matchup is too big for the Knights. We'll grab all the points we can get in this 10-7 matchup. Take UCF (8*).

My selection is on Northern Iowa plus the points over St. John's at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

I think Northern Iowa can put St. John's on 'upset' alert in this first round matchup on Friday. The Red Storm are a long way from home in San Diego and coming off a Big East Tournament title run last week that culminated with an 'upset' win over Connecticut in the final. Of note, St. John's is now riding a four-game ATS winning streak, matching its longest such streak this season. It has reached four straight ATS victories on two previous occasions, first losing to Auburn as a neutral court favorite in November and then winning but never sniffing out the cover as a double-digit favorite against Seton Hall in January. Northern Iowa went through a lull in January but righted the ship from February on and battled its way to a Missouri Valley Conference title. Unlike St. John's, which had to play into last weekend, Northern Iowa's conference tourney wrapped up on March 8th. We know Ben Jacobson's Panthers will come in prepared. I like the fact that they employ a grind-it-out style that figures to frustrate Rick Pitino's Red Storm on Friday. This is a sneaky 12-5 matchup that few are talking about. In fact, St. John's is a trendy pick to go on a deep tournament run. Look for the Panthers to prove to be a 'tough out'. Take Northern Iowa (8*).

My selection is on Arizona minus the points over Long Island at 1:35 pm et on Friday.

After watching Duke get a scare from Siena and Michigan fail to cover against Howard, bettors might be quick to grab the generous helping of points with Long Island on Friday. I don't think LIU is at the level of either of those upstart opponents that we saw play well yesterday. I can't help but look back to the Sharks non-conference slate that included blowout losses against Notre Dame and Illinois. LIU did manage to stay competitive in a pair of SEC road tilts at Mississippi State and Georgia (the latter came following the holiday break - an unsurprising hangover spot for the Bulldogs) but I think Arizona is a different beast. The Wildcats haven't exactly been piling up ATS victories lately, going just 5-7 ATS over its last 12 games with its longest ATS winning streak lasting only two games over that stretch. This is a team that has three previous ATS winning streaks of three games or more this season, however, and I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set this line high enough in their tournament opener. I think the problem the Sharks will run into here is that they don't like to push the tempo unless absolutely necessary, having hoisted up 54 or fewer field goal attempts in each of their last six games. We saw them really struggle to keep a lid on the offenses of the better opponents they faced during the non-conference portion of their schedule. Arizona of course comes into this one with a full head of steam off a Big 12 championship and having connected on 33, 29, 32 and 25 field goals over its last four contests - despite not being able to really push the pace in any of those games. If you're not going to run on the Wildcats you're not going to have much of a chance of staying competitive and I don't see LIU doing that here. Take Arizona (8*).

My selection is on Houston minus the points over Idaho at 10:10 pm et on Thursday.

This is one of the last talked about matchups on Thursday's board and I think there's some value to be had with the favored Cougars. There has of course been a lot of talk about who should or shouldn't be in the tournament field. Idaho is here thanks to running the table in its conference tournament, winning four games SU and ATS in five days last week. The Vandals enter the tourney sporting a modest 21-14 record this season despite facing a rather light schedule. I'm sure Idaho feels pretty good about itself after earning a surprising conference title and should this game get away from them in short order, I think it will be content to rest on its laurels and chalk up the campaign as a positive one. For Houston, this tournament offers a shot at redemption. I like the fact that the Cougars found an offense to go along with their elite defense this season. Unlike previous editions of the team, they haven't minded pushing the pace - in fact, they've thrived in such an environment. Meanwhile, you would have to go all the way back to January 24th against Texas Tech to find the last time they allowed an opponent to connect on more than 25 field goals. If we're going to lay this many points, we want our team to be able to exert dominance at both ends of the floor and I think that's the case here. Take Houston (8*).

First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Saint Louis plus the points over Georgia at 9:45 pm et on Thursday.

Saint Louis bowed out of the Atlantic-10 Tournament in a 70-69 loss to Dayton and enters this tournament on a four-game ATS slide. That actually serves us well as I think the Billikens could just as easily be favored in this game. Casual bettors will be quick to back Georgia as it admittedly faced the far more difficult schedule this season but feel the Bulldogs would be well-suited to be in the NIT. Georgia didn't exactly face the toughest non-conference slate, with its notable matchups coming against Georgia Tech, Xavier, Clemson, Florida State and Cincinnati. It went just 2-3 ATS in those five contests. Saint Louis doesn't have the benefit of having wins over ranked opponents on its resume but it did prevail in some sneaky-tough non-conference matchups against Grand Canyon, Santa Clara and San Francisco. Also of note, it swept the regular season series against eventual A-10 champion VCU. The Billikens obviously would have liked another matchup with the Rams in the A-10 Final but it wasn't to be. Instead they enter this tournament with an extra day of rest and I'm confident we'll see them snap their season-long four-game ATS slide. Take Saint Louis (10*).

My selection is on South Florida plus the points over Louisville at 1:30 pm et on Thursday.

Things rarely come easy for this Louisville team. It figures that they would draw one of the more difficult opening round 5-12 matchups against South Florida. The Bulls are going to be a popular 'upset' pick, and rightfully so. Louisville has been overvalued since the calendar turned over to 2026, going a miserable 5-15 ATS over its last 20 games. I said things rarely come easy for the Cardinals - case in point their last three games, which were all decided by five points or less. South Florida hasn't tasted defeat since January 31st and even that was a single point loss against Temple. In fact, the Bulls three losses in 2026 have come by a grand total of five points with two of those games decided in overtime. While I realize USF is taking a step up in class in this matchup, I think it can take Louisville down to the wire at the very least. Take South Florida (8*).

My selection is on TCU plus the points over Ohio State at 12:15 pm et on Thursday.

I think TCU is probably pretty happy about drawing Ohio State in its opening round matchup on Thursday. The Horned Frogs actually enter this tournament off back-to-back ATS defeats but they had delivered the cash in seven of their last eight games prior to that. It's easy to forget that this is a team that took Michigan down to the wire in a 67-63 loss and 'upset' Florida as a double-digit underdog back in November. Ohio State has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics this season, thanks in large part to playing in the Big Ten. Of course, TCU has managed to post a slightly better overall record. We'll grab the points with the Horned Frogs in a game that could very well go down to the wire. Take TCU (8*).

My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Purdue at 3:30 pm et on Sunday.

Bettors have gotten pretty comfortable fading Michigan at this point as the Wolverines have dropped the cash in four straight and six of their last seven games. Michigan has looked a little bit disinterested at times in its first two games in this tournament but I think now that it has reached the final, we will see the Wolverines bring their 'A' game. It was really no contest between these two teams in the lone regular season matchup as Michigan went on the road and won by double-digits on February 17th. While the Wolverines ATS woes have been well-documented, Purdue has struggled in that department as well, covering the spread just once in its last seven contests. In fact, going back to January 7th, the Boilermakers are just 5-15 ATS. Finally, we'll note that Michigan not only owns the better overall record in this matchup this season but has also faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. That's saying something as Purdue has gone up against one of the toughest slates of opponents in the country. Take Michigan (8*).

MAC Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Akron minus the points over Toledo at 8 pm et on Saturday.

Toledo was set up well in yesterday's MAC Tournament semi-final as it took on a UMass team that was ripe for a letdown off its 'upset' win over previously undefeated Miami-Ohio. The Rockets took full advantage as they stayed red hot offensively in a double-digit win. Toledo enters this game having connected on 30+ field goals in an incredible seven straight games. They haven't faced a team as good defensively as Akron over that stretch in my opinion, however. The Zips have limited eight straight and 11 of their last 12 opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. That's despite the opposition getting off 58 or more field goal attempts in seven of those games. Akron's offense has only been lukewarm through the first two games of this tournament but I think it will find its opportunities against a soft Toledo defense that has allowed three of its last four foes to knock down 50% or more of their field goal attempts. The Zips took the regular season meeting between these two teams by double-digits but failed to cover the lofty pointspread. We're dealing with a more reasonable number on a neutral court this time around. Take Akron (10*).

My selection is on Purdue minus the points over UCLA at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

In today's shifting college basketball landscape, the jury is out as to how much these conference tournaments really mean to a lot of teams. I think Purdue has made it evident that the Big Ten Tourney still means a lot to it after posting lopsided wins over Northwestern and Nebraska over the last two days. UCLA has also played well but I think it is in danger of a letdown off last night's stunning 'upset' win over Michigan State. The Bruins have now won four straight games both SU and ATS, putting them in uncharted territory (both steaks mark their longest of the season) entering Saturday's showdown with the Boilermakers. As I've been harping on much of the season, Purdue has faced one of the most difficult schedules in the country, certainly tougher than that of UCLA, and it has navigated it well, going 25-8 (UCLA is 23-10). The Boilermakers were actually 'upset' 69-67 on the road against the Bruins in the lone regular season meeting between these two teams. That spot set up well for UCLA as it was looking to rebound off a double-digit loss at Ohio State while Purdue was coming off a win at USC to open its two-game Los Angeles trip. Bettors figure to flock to the Bruins catching so many points on Saturday. We'll go the other way. Take Purdue (8*).

My selection is on Vermont plus the points over UMBC at 11 am et on Saturday.

UMBC has been feasting offensively, connecting on 33 or more field goals in three of its last four contests. But what happens when a team is able to offer some resistance? That team figures to be Vermont. The Catamounts have held an impressive three straight and six of their last seven opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. While their own offense has struggled at times, that's largely been a product of their slow pace. I think the Retrievers will drag the Catamounts into a faster-paced affair on Saturday, perhaps to their own detriment. Note that UMBC has allowed its last four opponents to hoist up 67, 56, 55 and 69 field goal attempts. The Retrievers have been on an incredible ATS run, reeling off five straight victories and going 13-2 ATS over their last 15 games but one of those losses came against Vermont. Note that while the Catamounts own the slightly worse overall record this season, they've faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Take Vermont (8*).

My selection is on VCU minus the points over Duquesne at 5 pm et on Friday.

I didn't come away overly impressed by Duquesne's win over Rhode Island yesterday. The Dukes were an unpopular small favorites in that game and took care of business in a 67-61 victory. Keep in mind, that ATS victory only served to end its long six-game ATS slide. The Dukes have been overvalued since a 7-1 ATS run back in late January-early February. Prior to that, these two teams met for the only time during the regular season and it was no contest with VCU rolling to a double-digit road win. The Rams have been idle since going into Dayton and posting a 68-62 'upset' win to spoil the Flyers Senior Night last week. While rust can be an issue for some teams following extended layoffs ahead of the conference tournament, I think the Rams can overcome that. Note that VCU not only owns the better overall record in this matchup this season but it has also faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Take VCU (8*).

AAC Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Tulsa minus the points over North Texas at 3:30 pm et on Friday.

North Texas outlasted Florida Atlantic yesterday so it stands to reason the Mean Green Eagles will be a popular play catching what looks like a generous helping of points against Tulsa on Friday. The Golden Hurricane have of course been idle since wrapping up the regular season with a narrow win at home against Temple last weekend. Tulsa quietly put together a 25-6 regular season mark and not only that but it faced a more difficult schedule than North Texas by most metrics. These two teams split the regular season series but Tulsa's victory came in blowout fashion - one of the few teams that has managed to pull away from UNT this season. We'll lay the points here. Take Tulsa (10*).

Big Ten Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Purdue minus the points over Northwestern at 6:30 pm et on Thursday.

Bettors figure to be all over underdog Northwestern in this game after the Wildcats 'upset' Indiana yesterday and given that they just took Purdue down to the wire in a 70-66 home defeat last week. Purdue checks into this contest having lost three of its last four games including a 97-93 loss against Wisconsin at home on Senior Night last time out. The Boilermakers have had four days to stew over that 'upset' loss - their fourth straight defeat ATS - and I'm confident we'll see them come out and make a statement on Thursday. Of note, Purdue not only owns the better overall record in this matchup this season but has also faced the tougher schedule by most metrics - one of the most difficult in the country, in fact. Take Purdue (10*).

My selection is on Arizona minus the points over UCF at 3 pm et on Thursday.

UCF pulled out an overtime win over Cincinnati yesterday to punch its ticket to the quarter-final round of the Big 12 Tournament. Its reward? A date with top-seeded Arizona on Thursday. The Wildcats have been idle since they closed out the regular season with a win but non-cover on the road against Colorado on Saturday. They don't figure to look past the Knights as they were tested in the lone regular season matchup between these two teams, prevailing by seven points on the road. Of note, Arizona connected on just 28-of-70 field goal attempts in that contest while UCF shot the lights out (29-of-55). I think we'll see the Wildcats extend their winning margin this time around as the Knights have a difficult time keeping pace after yesterday's draining affair. Take Arizona (8*).

MEAC Favorite of the Year. My selection is on Bethune-Cookman minus the points over Prairie View A&M at 2 pm et on Wednesday.

While few have paid much attention, Bethune-Cookman has had a terrific season, enduring a difficult non-conference schedule before dominating in conference play. We've picked out spots wisely with the Wildcats and we'll back them again in this spot on Wednesday. Prairie View A&M got off to a horrid start against Alcorn State yesterday but rallied and ultimately covered the spread in a low-scoring affair. That actually marked its fourth straight victory SU and eighth in a row ATS. Needless to say, the Panthers are in uncharted territory as their previous season-high ATS winning streak lasted just four games. Of note, PVAM has faced one of the country's weakest schedules this season by most metrics. Despite that, it still owns an inferior overall record to Bethune-Cookman. Off a disappointing regular season-ending 'upset' loss at Florida A&M last week, we'll lay the points with the Wildcats on Wednesday. Take Bethune-Cookman (10*).

My selection is on Long Island minus the points over Mercyhurst at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

I really like the way this matchup sets up for Long Island as it looks to punch its ticket to the Big Dance. The Sharks enter this game on the heels of four straight wins, going 2-1-1 ATS along the way. In fact, their last loss came in 'upset' fashion on the road against the same Mercyhurst team they'll face on Tuesday. The two teams split their regular season series but Mercyhurst delivered the cash in both contests. I look for a different story to unfold here. Note that the Sharks own the better overall record in this matchup this season and have also faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. We'll gladly fade Mercyhurst as it is in uncharted territory after reeling off a season-high five straight ATS victories. Take Long Island (8*).

Southland Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Nicholls State plus the Points over Texas-Rio Grande Valley at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with Nicholls State on Monday as it looks to stage an 'upset' against Texas-Rio Grande Valley. These two teams last met on February 9th and it was no contest as the Vaqueros avenged an earlier 'upset' loss at Nicholls State with a 92-72 victory. I don't think UTRGV is well-positioned to deliver another knockout blow here, however. The Vaqueros haven't really faced any resistance since February 23rd, when they lost at McNeese State. They closed out the regular season with consecutive layups at home against East Texas A&M and Northwestern State. While they do own the better overall record in this matchup this season, Nicholls State has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. The Colonels cruised to a 61-47 win over Northwestern State yesterday. They enter this game locked-in defensively having held their last four opponents to 20, 23, 23 and 14 made field goals. I like the fact that Nicholls State has shown the consistent ability to limit its opponents' scoring opportunities, allowing fewer than 60 field goal attempts in 14 of its last 15 games. The lone exception over that stretch came in a 91-83 'upset' win at Incarnate Word. Take Nicholls State (10*).

My selection is on South Florida minus the points over Charlotte at 2 pm et on Sunday.

I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set this line high enough on Senior Day for the Bulls. South Florida owns the better overall record in this matchup this season and has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. The Bulls have the type of offense that can simply overwhelm most opponents, hoisting up 66 or more field goal attempts in each of their last five games. Charlotte hasn't proven to be capable of slowing its opponents' tempo, yielding 63 or more field goal attempts in three straight and five of its last seven contests. The 49ers have displayed a pretty solid scoring baseline but a low ceiling. They haven't connected on 30+ field goals in regulation time since November 23rd and that was against little-known Shaw University. The Bulls have reached that number in two straight games heading in. We'll also note that USF is coming off a rare poor performance defensively as it allowed Memphis to knock down a whopping 33 field goals last time out. Keep in mind, prior to that the Bulls had held four of their last five opponents to 21 or fewer made field goals. Take South Florida (8*).

My selection is on Penn State plus the points over Rutgers at 12 noon et on Sunday.

These two teams are virtual mirror images of one another. They own identical overall records this season but it's worth noting that Penn State has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Rutgers took the lone previous meeting by double-digits but I think that game was closer than the final score indicated. Both teams actually shot the lights out in that contest but the Scarlet Knights were able to afford themselves more scoring opportunities. Penn State has had a few days to stew over an ugly blowout loss at Ohio State on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Rutgers is just two days removed from 'emptying the tank' in a four-point loss at Michigan State. I think the Scarlet Knights will have a difficult time re-igniting its offense after that outlier performance. Take Penn State (8*).

Big West Game of the Month. My selection is on Cal-San Diego plus the points over Cal-Santa Barbara at 9 pm et on Saturday.

We'll back Cal-San Diego on Saturday as it looks to avenge an earlier 62-48 home loss against Cal-Santa Barbara. Despite that defeat against the Gauchos back in January, the Tritons still own the better overall record in this matchup this season and have also faced the tougher schedule by most metrics. I think the Gauchos are going to have a difficult time contending with a Tritons team that has connected on 30+ field goals in each of its last two games and 26 or more in six straight contests. It's been more of a struggle for the UCSB offense as it has knocked down 22, 25, 23 and 21 field goals over its last four contests and that's despite two of those games going to overtime. The Tritons aren't uncomfortable playing at a slow pace but they'll certainly be looking to make the necessary adjustments here after that earlier matchup between these two teams was as ugly as it gets (neither team made 20+ field goals). Off a 75-71 'upset' loss at Cal State-Fullerton two nights ago, we'll call for the Tritons to bounce back here. Take Cal-San Diego (10*).

My selection is on Mississippi State plus the points over Georgia at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We'll grab the points with the Bulldogs at home on Saturday as they look to snap their four-game SU and ATS losing streaks and end the regular season on a high note against Georgia. The visiting Dawgs are in a clear letdown spot off consecutive SU and ATS wins at home against South Carolina and Alabama. Keep in mind, you would have to go back to a stretch from late November to mid-December to find the last time Georgia reeled off three straight ATS victories. While the Dawgs do own the better overall record in this matchup this season, Mississippi State has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Take Mississippi State (8*).

My selection is on Clemson minus the points over Georgia Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We'll lay the points with Clemson as it looks to sweep the regular season series with Georgia Tech on Senior Day on Saturday. The Tigers are coming off a tough loss at North Carolina last time out. Clemson has been locked-in defensively, holding seven of its last 10 opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. Unfortunately, the Tigers offense hasn't followed suit but I think we'll see a strong bounce-back performance here. Georgia Tech has played matador-like defense, allowing 27 or more made field goals in a soul-sucking seven straight games. Clemson doesn't generally play all that fast but it should certainly have the opportunity to do so here. Note that the Tigers got off 61 field goal attempts in the first meeting between these two teams this season and the Yellow Jackets have yielded 60+ field goal attempts to the opposition in three of their last four contests. Finally, we'll note that Clemson owns the significantly better overall record in this matchup this season and has also faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Take Clemson (8*).

Summit League Favorite of the Year. My selection is on Denver minus the points over North Dakota at 9:30 pm et on Friday.

North Dakota 'upset' Denver on the road 93-86 in the first meeting between these two teams this season but the Pioneers answered back in their next matchup, delivering a decisive 98-79 victory. The Pioneers and Fighting Hawks own virtually identical overall records this season but Denver has faced the tougher schedule by most metrics. We'll lay the points with Denver on Friday as I think they're well-positioned to ultimately pull away in this contest. The Pioneers enter this game on a scoring tear. They've made good on 28 or more field goals in seven of their last eight games, reaching 30+ successful field goal attempts on three occasions over that stretch, including against North Dakota. While their defensive play has left a lot to be desired this season, they've at least managed to slow their opponents' pace in recent weeks, holding four straight foes to 58 or fewer field goal attempts heading into Friday's clash. That could prove to be the difference in this one, noting that North Dakota has allowed four of its last seven opponents to hoist up 60+ field goal attempts and has been lit up for 27 or more made field goals in seven of its last nine contests. The Fighting Hawks had a nice scoring surge in January and early February but have now been limited to 24 or fewer made field goals in three of their last four games. That's despite getting off 60+ field goal attempts in three of those contests. Take Denver (10*).

My selection is on Ohio plus the points over Miami-Ohio at 9 pm et on Friday.

This matchup will draw plenty of attention on Friday as even casual viewers figure to tune in to see if Miami-Ohio can complete a perfect regular season. You can almost see the pressure getting to the Redhawks a little bit lately as their last two victories have come by slim two-point margins. While their offense was once red hot, it has cooled lately, with the Redhawks knocking down 28 or fewer field goals in four of their last five games. While the Bobcats appear vulnerable defensively based on their last couple of performances - double-digit losses against Toledo and UMass - I think we'll see them respond favorably here. Offensively, I think Ohio can hang as the Redhawks have allowed five of their last seven opponents to get off 60+ field goal attempts and the Bobcats have knocked down 26 or more field goals in three straight and seven of their last eight games. The first meeting between these two teams this season ultimately came down to Miami-Ohio shooting the lights out (30-of-58 from the field) and that was during the Redhawks season-high five-game ATS winning streak. Note that while Miami-Ohio obviously owns the better overall record in this matchup this season, Ohio has faced the considerably more difficult schedule by most metrics. Take Ohio (8*).

My selection is on Columbia plus the points over Harvard at 7 pm et on Friday.

I don't think there's enough separating these two teams to warrant the lofty pointspread on Friday. Harvard routed Columbia 79-54 in 'upset' fashion on the road back on January 10th. You can be sure this is a rematch the Lions have had circled on their calendar. Note that while these two teams own identical overall records this season, Columbia has faced the slightly more difficult schedule. The Lions, while checking in off a loss to Yale, do bring solid offensive form into this contest. They've made good on a consistent 25 or more field goals in 11 of their last 14 games. On the flip side, we've seen the wheels turning defensively down the stretch as they've held their last three opponents to 20, 22 and 22 made field goals. Harvard isn't the offensive force we've been accustomed to seeing in the Ivy League. The Crimson have knocked down 25 or fewer field goals in three straight and seven of their last eight contests (the outlier came in an overtime loss to Yale). On the flip side, the Crimson have been headed in the wrong direction defensively, allowing their last two opponents to connect on 23 (on only 44 attempts) and 26 field goals. They had limited three of their last four opponents to 21 or less prior to that. I think Columbia can take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take Columbia (8*).

MEAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Coppin State plus the points over Morgan State at 8 pm et on Thursday.

We missed fading Morgan State last time out as it shot the lights out in a 90-84 'upset' win over Norfolk State. The Bears have had a couple of days off to pat themselves on the back following that victory while Coppin State has likewise been idle for the last two days but has to be stewing over consecutive losses including a blowout defeat at Howard on Monday. Note that prior to that brief skid, Coppin State had reeled off four straight wins and was riding a five-game ATS winning streak before Monday's defeat. While Morgan State does own the better overall record in this matchup this season, Coppin State has faced the more difficult schedule. In fact, Morgan State has gone up against one of the weakest slate of opponents in the country by most metrics. Coppin State should relish the opportunity to get out and run a little bit in this one as Morgan State has yielded 60+ field goal attempts in eight of its last nine games. In fact, the Bears have been lit up for 30+ made field goals in three straight games. On the flip side, Morgan State has been held to 27 or fewer made field goals in 20 of its last 23 games with two of the outlier performances coming against little-known non-Division I opponents in PSU-Brandywine and Virginia-Lynchburg. Morgan State did take the previous meeting between these two teams by nine points at Coppin State on January 31st. The Bears shot exceptionally well (27-of-56 from the field) and got to the free throw line a whopping 38 times in that game though. Look for things to even out a bit in this rematch. Take Coppin State (10*).

My selection is on Middle Tennessee State plus the points over Florida International at 7 pm et on Thursday.

We'll grab the points with Middle Tennessee State on Thursday as I think the case can be made for the wrong team being favored in this one. The Blue Raiders will be looking to avenge an 88-84 overtime defeat against Florida International suffered on February 4th. I like the consistency MTSU has shown offensively since that setback, making good on 32 (overtime), 29, 32, 28, 27, 26 and 29 field goals over its last seven contests. On the flip side, the Blue Raiders gave up their fair share in a narrow overtime win over New Mexico State last time out but prior to that had held three of their last four opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. FIU has allowed two straight and six of its last seven foes to connect on at least 25 field goals. On the flip side, the Panthers have knocked down 25 or fewer field goals in three straight games. They only managed to secure a win at Louisiana Tech last time out thanks to shooting a blistering 13-for-23 from three-point range. Finally, we'll note that MTSU not only owns the slightly better overall record in this matchup this season but it has also faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Take Middle Tennessee State (8*).

My selection is on Maryland-Eastern Shore minus the points over Delaware State at 7 pm et on Thursday.

Bettors seem to be getting behind Delaware State in this matchup yet the Hornets are on a seven-game SU and ATS slide. In fact, Delaware State's last win came against the same Maryland-Eastern Shore team it will face on Thursday so the latter will clearly be out for 'revenge' after that 'upset' loss suffered on January 31st. Not only does UMES own the better overall record in this matchup this season but it has also faced the tougher schedule by most metrics. The Hawks have quietly gotten the wheels turning offensively in recent weeks, connecting on 25 or more field goals in two straight and four of their last six games. They're well-positioned to blitz a Hornets team that has yielded 26 or more made field goals in five of their last six contests. On the flip side, Delaware State has proven to be one of the country's weakest offensive teams. It has knocked down 25 or fewer field goals in 14 straight contests entering Thursday's action. While UMES has struggled to win games, it has proven stingy defensively, holding each of its last four opponents to 50 or fewer field goal attempts and 11 of its last 13 foes to 24 or fewer made field goals. Take Maryland-Eastern Shore (8*).

My selection is on Houston minus the points over Baylor at 9 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll lay the points with Houston and it looks to continue to redeem itself following its recent three-game losing streak. The Cougars snapped that slide with a resounding 102-62 win over Colorado on Saturday. I think we'll see them build on that performance here. Baylor has been playing reasonably well and comes off an 'upset' win at Central Florida on Saturday. However, the Bears remain leaky defensively, having allowed 38, 28, 34, 25, 30 and 31 made field goals over their last six games. Offensively they've been on point but they run into one of the best defensive teams in the country on Wednesday - one that held them to 15-of-41 shooting in their first matchup this season, a 77-55 Houston road victory. Baylor thrives by pushing the pace, getting off 59 or more field goal attempts in five of its last six games. Houston is of course incredibly stingy, yielding 51, 56, 50 and 50 field goal attempts over its last four contests in particular. On the flip side, while not known for playing fast, the Cougars have pushed the pace more than we've been accustomed to seeing, most recently hoisting up 57 or more field goal attempts in two straight and all but two of their 29 games this season. The door is open for this one to get away from the Bears. Take Houston (8*).

Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Purdue minus the points over Northwestern at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday.

Purdue figures to be in a foul mood after falling short in back-to-back difficult tests against Michigan State at home and Ohio State on the road. The Boilermakers take a step down in class on Wednesday as they take on Northwestern. Note that Purdue obviously owns the better overall record in this matchup this season and has also faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics - one of the toughest in the country, in fact. The Boilers enter this game having knocked down 27 or more field goals in four straight games and have held the opposition to 24 or fewer made field goals in six of their last nine contests. You would have to go back to January 17th to find the last time they allowed an opponent to hoist up more than 57 field goal attempts. The Wildcats don't figure to push the pace on them. Northwestern enters riding a three-game winning streak but has connected on 26 or fewer field goals in four straight and seven of its last eight contests. It has held up well defensively but that's had a lot to do with the opposition not really pushing the pace. I think we'll see a different story unfold with Purdue desperate to end its slide ahead of its regular season finale at home against Wisconsin on Saturday. The Boilers have gotten off 57 or more field goal attempts in two straight and 21 of 29 games this season. Take Purdue (10*).

My selection is on Stetson plus the points over Eastern Kentucky at 5 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with Stetson in this Atlantic Sun Tournament matchup on Wednesday. The Hatters dropped a 100-88 decision on the road against Eastern Kentucky in the lone previous meeting between these two teams this season. Note that these two teams are virtual mirror images of one another having posted identical overall records this season and virtually identical strength-of-schedule ratings. Stetson enters on more of an offensive tear having knocked down 27 or more field goals in five straight games. On the flip side, we've seen the wheels turning in the right direction for the Hatters defensively as they've limited their last three opponents to 26, 27 and 23 made field goals. The Colonels on the other hand have been held to 25 or fewer made field goals in three of their last six games and of the other three contests, two of them went to overtime. They've proven vulnerable defensively, allowing four straight opponents to connect on 28 or more field goals and 15 of their last 19 foes to knock down 27 or more. Take Stetson (8*).

My selection is on Kansas State plus the points over West Virginia at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

It's been a trying campaign for Kansas State and it enters this contest on the heels of three straight losses. I do look for the Wildcats to show some pride on Senior Night, and I like the way this one sets up for them as a small home underdog. Note that Kansas State has at least been trending in the right direction offensively. It enters this game having connected on 34, 28, 26 and 28 field goals over its last four contests. While West Virginia has been terrific defensively at times, it has been headed in the wrong direction lately, allowing its last two opponents to make good on 31 and 24 field goals. The Mountaineers don't generally play at a fast pace, even though they did hoist up 62 field goal attempts in an 'upset' win at home against BYU on Saturday. Note that West Virginia has been limited to 27 or fewer made field goals in 15 of 16 games since the start of January, with the lone outlier coming in an overtime loss at Oklahoma State on February 24th. When Kansas State has struggled defensively it has usually happened against opponents that look to push the pace. Still, the Wildcats have at least limited five of their last seven foes to 28 or fewer made field goals. There was very little separating these two teams in their earlier matchup as West Virginia won by five points at home. I think the case can be made for the wrong team being favored in this rematch. Take Kansas State (8*).

My selection is on NJIT plus the points over UMBC at 6 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll grab the points with NJIT on Senior Night as it looks to avenge an earlier 87-74 loss on the road against UMBC. The Retrievers enter this game sitting atop the America East standings and are in uncharted territory as they have reeled off a season-high eight straight wins, going 7-1 ATS over that stretch. I do think they'll be in tough on Tuesday as they take on a Highlanders team that is sure to be in a foul mood following three straight losses (1-2 ATS). NJIT still sits in the top half of the America East standings at 10-5 in conference play. I think there's a path for the Highlanders to at the very least take this one down to the wire, noting that UMBC doesn't generally push the pace, having gotten off 58 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight and 13 of its last 15 games. The Retrievers connected on a blistering 35-of-58 field goal attempts in a blowout win at UMass-Lowell on Saturday but that was an outlier performance noting they had been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in three straight games previously. NJIT comes off a string of poor shooting performances but has generally been consistent in that regard, knocking down 24 or more field goals in 10 straight and 12 of its last 13 games prior to its last two contests. On the flip side, NJIT has held six straight opponents to 58 or fewer field goal attempts and 12 of its last 15 foes to 26 or fewer made field goals, giving it more than a puncher's chance of keeping UMBC within arm's reach here. Finally, we'll note that while UMBC does own the better overall record in this matchup this season, it has faced one of the weakest schedules in the country by most metrics. NJIT has certainly going up against a more difficult slate of opponents. Take NJIT (8*).

My selection is on East Texas A&M plus the points over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi at 8 pm et on Monday.

The slow pace alone should help East Texas A&M keep Texas A&M-Corpus Christi within arm's reach on Monday. The first meeting between these two teams went the Islanders way by 11 points but keep in mind, East Texas A&M knocked down just 1-of-20 three-point attempts in that contest. The Lions are coming off a poor shooting performance against Texas-Rio Grande Valley but still only lost that game by eight points, covering the +10.5-point spread. Prior to that they had connected on 26, 29 and 23 field goals over their last three games so I'm anticipating a bounce-back here. On the flip side, the Lions have held four straight and seven of their last eight foes to 27 or fewer made field goals. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi has knocked down 27 or fewer field goals in six straight games despite one of those contests going to overtime. They held a weak Northwestern State team to just 18 made field goals last time out but had allowed 26, 25 and 23 over their previous three contests. Finally, we'll note that while East Texas A&M does own the inferior record in this matchup this season, it has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Look for the Lions to take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take East Texas A&M (8*).

MAAC Favorite of the Year. My selection is on Quinnipiac minus the points over Canisius at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We'll lay the points with Quinnipiac as it looks to rebound from three straight losses and wrap up the regular season on a positive note on Sunday at Canisius. Not only have the Bobcats posted the considerably better overall record in this matchup this season but they've also faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. While they did drop an overtime decision at Niagara on Friday, I did like the fact that they continued to push the pace and I think that can serve them well in this particular matchup. The last time they faced Canisius on February 5th, they couldn't get much going offensively (shooting 22-of-54 from the field) yet still won by 15 points (just missing out on covering the -15.5-point spread). Quinnipiac enters this contest having allowed its last two opponents to connect on exactly 31 field goals (boosted by overtime at Niagara on Friday). Keep in mind, prior to that it had limited four straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. Canisius doesn't figure to threaten the Bobcats defense, noting that it has knocked down 24 or fewer field goals in eight straight games. The question is whether the Golden Griffins own defense can hang. They limited Merrimack to only 19-of-48 shooting in a stunning 'upset' victory on Friday. I think they'll be in tough here, however, as they try to slow a Bobcats team that generally finds its scoring opportunities, having hoisted up 60+ field goal attempts in 10 of its last 11 games. Canisius, while limiting its opponents' shooting volume, has still allowed 12 of its last 18 opponents to connect on at least 24 field goals. The only three previous times it held an opponent to fewer than 20 made field goals this season it lost its next game by 19, 18 and 17 points. Take Quinnipiac (10*).

Big West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Cal State-Fullerton plus the points over Hawaii at 7 pm et on Saturday.

We'll grab the points with the underdog Titans at home as they look to avenge an earlier double-digit loss against the Rainbow Warriors. Cal State-Fullerton is on an offensive tear right now having connected on 30, 25, 33 and 29 field goals over its last four games. Note that in the first matchup between these two teams this season - a 69-59 Hawaii victory - the Titans endured a dreadful shooting performance, particularly from beyond the arc where they knocked down just 3-of-19 three-point attempts. Here, Cal State-Fullerton enters having made good on double-digit threes in four of its last five games. Both teams have proven vulnerable defensively - in fact, I don't think there's a lot separating the two teams at either ends of the floor. Hawaii did hold Cal-Davis to just 22 made field goals in a narrow win on Thursday but prior to that it had allowed 28 or more successful field goal attempts in five of its last seven contests. Cal State-Fullerton has had a week to prepare for this rematch after delivering its second straight victory last Saturday against Cal State-Bakersfield. The Titans have sagged defensively in recent games but have still limited 10 of their last 11 foes to fewer than 30 made field goals so it's not as if they've been getting torched. Hawaii has displayed a fairly firm ceiling offensively, knocking down 28 or fewer field goals in six straight and eight of its last nine games. Finally, we'll note that while Hawaii does own the better overall record in this matchup this season, Cal State-Fullerton has faced the more difficult schedule. Take Cal State-Fullerton (10*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over California at 4 pm et on Saturday.

California has reeled off back-to-back impressive home wins (and covers) against Stanford and SMU but I can't help but feel it's in for a potential letdown as it looks to wrap up a perfect three-game homestand against Pittsburgh on Senior Day. Keep in mind, the Golden Bears have still been limited to 26 or fewer made field goals in regulation time in eight of their last nine and 14 of their last 16 contests. On the flip side, Cal's opponents do tend to find their scoring opportunities as it has yielded 60+ field goal attempts in six of its last nine games. That might serve to shake loose a slumbering Pitt offense that has gotten bogged down by some tough opposition recently. Note that the Panthers have been held to 55 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games but figure to eclipse that number here. Cal has allowed six of its last seven opponents to knock down at least 25 field goals. Finally, we'll note that while Pitt owns the inferior overall record in this matchup this season, it has faced the more difficult schedule - considerably so. Take Pittsburgh (8*).

My selection is on Central Michigan plus the points over Buffalo at 2 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams enter this game on the heels of consecutive ATS wins but SU losses last time out. I like Central Michigan's chances of taking this one down to the wire at the very least on Saturday. The Chippewas have been performing admirably at both ends of the floor lately. They've connected on 36, 26, 29, 28, 37, 21, 25 and 27 field goals over their last eight games and that's despite getting off fewer than 60 field goal attempts in six of those contests. On the flip side, they've kept a lid on recent opponents' offenses, allowing 26 or fewer made field goals in four straight games. You would have to go back seven games to find the last time they allowed an opponent to get off more than 60 field goal attempts. Buffalo was red hot offensively back in January but has cooled since. It has made good on 26 or fewer field goals in six straight games despite one of those contests needing overtime to decide. On the flip side, the Bulls have been lit up for 28 or more successful field goal attempts in two straight and six of their last eight contests. Buffalo owns the better overall record in this matchup this season but Central Michigan has faced the tougher schedule by most metrics. With this being the lone regular season meeting, I'm not sure the betting markets are pricing it appropriately. Take Central Michigan (8*).

My selection is on Massachusetts plus the points over Bowling Green at 2 pm et on Saturday.

There's been very little separating these two teams this season. They own virtually identical overall records although Massachusetts has faced the slightly more difficult schedule by most metrics. Their first meeting needed overtime to decide with Bowling Green pulling off the minor 'upset' on the road, prevailing in a 101-100 thriller. Perhaps the thinking here is that UMass is out of gas as it has gone to overtime in three of its last five games (it is 0-4 in overtime games this season - outscored by a grand total of nine points in those contests). The Minutemen have lost five straight games including three in a row ATS. Bowling Green has been struggling as well having lost three straight contests both SU and ATS. While it's difficult to put too much stock in the usual shooting metrics for UMass given all the OT games, we will note that it has held four straight and seven of its last nine opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. Bowling Green enjoyed a terrific stretch offensively back in January but has been limited to 28 or fewer successful field goal attempts in eight straight games entering Saturday's action. On the flip side, it has allowed 25 or more made field goals in four of its last six games and 30+ on two occasions over that stretch. Take Massachusetts (8*).

My selection is on Old Dominion over Georgia State at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

I can understand the logic behind bettors supporting Georgia State in this matchup. After all, the Panthers are looking to avenge an earlier 78-55 rout at the hands of ODU and do have home court advantage in this matchup of teams with identical overall records. We'll go the other way and back the Monarchs, however. ODU checks in off consecutive losses, both SU and ATS, at Southern Miss and Marshall. The Monarchs have been on a tear offensively, knocking down 28 or more field goals in five of their last six games. Their problem has been their defensive play, or lack thereof. I'm not convinced Georgia State can take advantage. The Panthers have made good on 25 or fewer field goals in regulation time in 11 straight games. It's not as if they've been thriving defensively either. They've allowed their last two opponents to knock down 31 and 27 field goals and eight of their last 10 foes have connected on 27 or more (one game was boosted by overtime). Finally, we'll note that while these two teams do own identical records, Old Dominion has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Take Old Dominion (8*).

My selection is on Cal State-Bakersfield plus the points over Cal-San Diego at 10 pm et on Thursday.

We won with Cal-San Diego in its 'upset' victory at Cal-Irvine on Saturday but I won't hesitate to go the other way and fade the Tritons as they return home to host lowly Cal State-Bakersfield on Thursday. The Roadrunners haven't won a game since January 8th. Included in their losing streak was an 83-62 home loss against Cal-San Diego on January 17th. CSUB connected on only 18-of-56 field goal attempts in that contest while UCSD made good on 29-of-63. I do think the Roadrunners can close the gap in this rematch. They're sure to get their share of scoring opportunities as the Tritons have yielded 60+ field goal attempts to the opposition in six of their last nine contests. On the flip side, UCSD has had a fairly firm ceiling offensively, connecting on 27 or fewer field goals in nine straight contests entering Thursday's action. Take Cal State-Bakersfield (8*).

American Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Wichita State at 9 pm et on Thursday.

Memphis has had a few days to stew over its most recent setback, a 78-67 home loss against UAB on Sunday. The Tigers have now dropped four straight games both SU and ATS although it is worth noting that their schedule has been relentless with consecutive matchups against North Texas, Utah State and South Florida on the road and UAB at home. I look for them to regain their footing here as they look to avenge an earlier 74-59 loss at Wichita State. The Shockers enter on the heels of three straight wins and that's notable as it marks a season-high in terms of wins in a row. While Wichita State does own the better overall record in this matchup this season, Memphis has faced the considerably more difficult schedule. The Shockers have been producing offensively thanks to a high-volume approach in recent weeks but they'll be up against a Memphis squad that has limited the opposition to fewer than 60 field goal attempts in 10 of its last 15 games. Wichita State was lights out defensively against Temple in its most recent game but has yielded 24 or more made field goals in five of its last eight contests. Take Memphis (10*).

My selection is on Kennesaw State plus the points over Liberty at 7 pm et on Thursday.

The first matchup between these two teams this season went Liberty's way by an 81-73 score. That's a game Kennesaw State would undoubtedly like to have back as it got off a ridiculous 80 field goal attempts (compared to Liberty's 53) but shot miserably. I look for the revenge-minded Owls to answer back here. Kennesaw State had knocked down 31, 29 and 27 field goals over its previous three games before connecting on only 20 in a narrow win over Louisiana Tech on Saturday. I do think the Owls can hang on the strength of their defense here, noting that they've limited five of their last seven opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, Liberty has proven vulnerable defensively in recent weeks, allowing three of its last four foes to make good on 30+ field goals (one result was helped along by overtime). The Flames have been held to fewer than 30 successful field goal attempts in regulation time in six straight contests. Take Kennesaw State (8*).

My selection is on SMU minus the points over California at 10 pm et on Wednesday.

Bettors might be a little hesitant to fade California after getting burned doing so with Stanford on Saturday. The Golden Bears check in off consecutive wins and own an identical overall record to that of Wednesday's opponent, SMU, this season. However, not all records are created equally and the visiting Mustangs have faced the more difficult schedule. SMU has quietly been on an offensive tear lately, connecting on 30+ field goals in six of its last seven games and 28 or more in an incredible nine straight and 16 of its last 18 games overall. The Mustangs have been forgiving defensively, allowing the opposition to push the pace, but that's not really Cal's game. Prior to Saturday's victory, Cal had allowed five straight opponents to knock down 27 or more field goals. On the flip side, the Bears have been limited to 26 or fewer made field goals in six of their last eight contests. Take SMU (8*).

My selection is on Charlotte over North Texas at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

North Texas has been one of the country's best defensive teams in recent years, playing at an incredibly slow pace that tends to frustrate the opposition and lead to success for the Mean Green Eagles. That hasn't necessarily been the case this season, however. North Texas enters Wednesday's contest having allowed 25 or more made field goals in two straight and six of its last eight games. On the flip side, the Mean Green Eagles offense remains limited. They've reached 30 successful field goal attempts in regulation time on only one occasion this season and that came against little-known University of Science and Arts-Oklahoma back on December 22nd. They've been held to just 21, 24, 23 and 23 made field goals over their last four contests. Charlotte snapped its four-game losing streak with a double-digit win over East Carolina on Saturday. You can finally see the wheels turning again for the 49ers as they've knocked down 29, 28 and 25 field goals over their last three games and have held their last two opponents to 24 and 19 successful field goal attempts. When Charlotte has struggled defensively it has generally come against opponents that push the pace. While North Texas has played faster than we've been accustomed to seeing at times this season, it enters this game having gotten off 55 or fewer field goal attempts in three of its last four contests. Finally, we'll note that while UNT does own the slightly better overall record in this matchup this season, Charlotte has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Take Charlotte (8*).

ACC Game of the Week. My selection is on N.C. State plus the points over Virginia at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

I don't think there's as much separating these two ACC foes as the pointspread indicates. Virginia does own the better overall record this season but N.C. State has faced the more difficult schedule. The Wolfpack have been idle since last Tuesday's blowout win over rival North Carolina. I don't think there's been a lot of patting themselves on the back since then, however, as they had been struggling prior to that contest, losers of consecutive games SU and four straight ATS. I do like the consistency the Wolfpack have shown offensively over the last month, connecting on 27 or more field goals in seven straight games. Unlike past editions of the Cavaliers, this Virginia team doesn't employ lock-down defense having yielded 25, 18, 27, 24 and 29 made field goals over its last five contests with the outlier coming in a narrow three-point victory at Florida State. In fact, both teams will give up their share of scoring opportunities with the opposition consistently generating 60+ field goal attempts in ACC play. With that in mind, I do think this one sets up as a potential high-scoring, back-and-forth affair. N.C. State has undoubtedly had this game circled on its calendar since dropping a 76-61 decision at home against Virginia in early January. The Cavaliers shot the lights out in that contest, particularly from beyond the arc. I look for the Wolfpack to close the gap this time around as they catch the Cavaliers in uncharted territory riding a season-high eight-game winning streak and off a come-from-behind victory over Miami on Saturday. Take N.C. State (10*).

MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Eastern Michigan plus the points over Miami-Ohio at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday.

We missed with Eastern Michigan on Saturday as it was routed 94-75 at Toledo. It certainly hasn't been a banner campaign for the Eagles. They check in sporting a far inferior overall record to that of the undefeated Redhawks but it is worth noting that they've faced the considerably more difficult schedule. Saturday's game was an outlier for EMU in a sense. The Rockets simply shot the lights out on them (37-of-55 from the field) but those type of performances haven't been commonplace against this Eagles defense. EMU has still held five of its last seven opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. Going back further, it has limited 11 of its last 14 foes to 27 or fewer successful field goal attempts. On the flip side, while not an offensive juggernaut by any means, EMU has knocked down a healthy 25, 38, 24, 25 and 27 field goals over its last five contests. Miami-Ohio is an offensive juggernaut of sorts, that much I'll admit. However, the Redhawks have proven vulnerable defensively, yielding 28 or more made field goals in four straight and 12 of their last 16 contests. It's not as if they play at an exceptionally fast pace either, having hoisted up fewer than 60 field goal attempts in each of their last five games. While not likely to spring the 'upset', I do think there's a path for the Eagles to at least keep the Redhawks within arm's reach from start to finish on Tuesday. Take Eastern Michigan (10*).

My selection is on Kansas plus the points over Houston at 9 pm et on Monday.

Bettors figure to line up to back the Cougars on Monday as they try to avoid a third straight loss. The schedule has certainly toughened up on Houston lately and it hasn't responded well, dropping back-to-back close games against Iowa State and Arizona. While there's no fault in either of those losses, I think the Cougars are going to find themselves in the wrong place at the wrong time on Monday. Kansas checks in off an embarrassing blowout loss at home against Cincinnati on Saturday. Needless to say, the Jayhawks probably had one eye on this showdown and got caught flat-footed. While Houston does own the better overall record in this matchup this season, Kansas has faced the tougher schcedule - one of the most difficult in the country, in fact. I think the Jayhawks will welcome a slower-paced game here after getting caught up in a faster environment on Saturday. Note that Kansas has connected on 27 or more field goals in four of its last five and 12 of its last 17 contests. It figures to be catching Houston at the right time as the Cougars have allowed consecutive opponents to make good on exactly 25 field goals - the second time that has happened since the final week of January. Take Kansas (8*).

Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Stephen F. Austin at 7:30 pm et on Monday.

Both of these teams come into Monday's game playing well and there was very little separating them in their first matchup this season - a five-point Stephen F. Austin victory in New Orleans back on January 17th. I can't help but feel this line is disrespectful to the visiting Privateers. New Orleans has already won the first two games of its current three-game road jaunt with both victories coming in 'upset' fashion. In fact, the Privateers have reeled off four straight ATS victories. They've had little time to pat themselves on the back, however, after winning at Lamar on Saturday. Stephen F. Austin has won a season-high 13 straight games but narrowly avoided a big upset at home against Nicholls State on Saturday. The Lumberjacks have had a banner season and will likely be dancing in March. However, it's worth noting that they've faced a considerably weaker schedule than that of the Privateers. I like the way New Orleans has played down the stretch, particularly defensively as it has held four straight opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals and eight of its last nine foes to 26 or less. Stephen F. Austin has displayed a scoring ceiling of late, connecting on fewer than 30 field goals in six straight contests after eclipsing that number in three of its previous seven games. We've seen the Lumberjacks waver a bit defensively of late as they've allowed 29, 26, 22, 26 and 28 made field goals over their last five contests. Of note, while SFA won the first meeting between these two teams this season by five points, it got to the free throw line a whopping 30 times compared to New Orleans' 11 in that contest. It should own the edge in that department again tonight but perhaps not as pronounced. Take New Orleans (10*).

My selection is on Memphis minus the points over UAB at 12 noon et on Sunday.

UAB figures to be a popular underdog on Sunday's board. It enters this contest riding an eight-game road winning streak and fresh off a victory at Temple on Wednesday. Not only that but the Blazers will be looking to avenge an earlier 'upset' loss at home against Memphis. We'll go the other way, however, and lay the points with the Tigers in this matchup. Memphis has had a couple of days to stew over its third straight defeat, with all of those setbacks coming on the road against quality opponents in North Texas, Utah State and South Florida. The Tigers have gone cold offensively over their last couple of games but I do think the scoring will return, noting that they've gotten off a healthy 60+ field goal attempts in four of their last five contests. UAB has proven vulnerable defensively, allowing 14 straight and 17 of its last 18 opponents to get off at least 58 field goal attempts. It has yielded 25+ made field goals in four of its last five contests. Memphis on the other hand has been consistent defensively, holding six of its last seven foes to 25 or fewer made field goals. In fact, the Tigers have allowed 25 or fewer made field goals in 18 of 26 contests this season. While UAB does own the better overall record in this matchup this season, Memphis has faced the considerably more difficult schedule. We'll lay the points. Take Memphis (8*).

Big West Game of the Year. My selection is on Cal-San Diego plus the points over Cal-Irvine at 10 pm et on Saturday.

Cal-Irvine tends to gain plenty of support from casuals in the betting marketplace as it carries a certain reputation following March runs of the past. Here, it faces a difficult test at home against Cal-San Diego, noting that while these two teams own identical overall records this season, the visiting Tritons have faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics and they'll be looking to avenge an earlier 61-59 'upset' loss at home against the Anteaters. Cal-Irvine has been producing consistently from an offensive standpoint but UCSD figures to offer some resistance. The Tritons have held four straight and eight of their last nine opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. Contrast that with the Anteaters, who have played matador-like defense at times, allowing three straight opponents to hoist up 66 or more field goal attempts and 11 of their last 13 foes to get off 60+. UCSD doesn't mind pushing the pace and has been efficient offensively over the course of the season, connecting on 24 or more field goals in all but four of their 27 contests to date. Take Cal-San Diego (10*).

ACC Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Stanford plus the points over California at 6 pm et on Saturday.

These two teams had much different results when they last took the court last Saturday as Stanford dropped a 68-63 decision at Wake Forest, ending its two-game winning streak, while California rolled to an 86-75 win at Boston College to span its two-game losing skid. This is undoubtedly a game that Stanford has had circled on its calendar after getting 'upset' at home against the Golden Bears back on January 24th. That was part of a five-game losing streak for the Cardinal. Since then, they've gone 2-1 and check in 4-2 ATS over their last six contests. it's certainly worth noting that while Cal does own the better overall record in this matchup this season, Stanford has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Note that the Cardinal have held all but four of their 26 opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts this season. They check in off a poor shooting performance against a good Wake Forest team but had knocked down 27, 31, 24, 33 and 26 field goals in their five contests previous to that. Cal continues to play matador-like defense, allowing five straight opponents to connect on 27 or more field goals. The Bears have shot well in their last couple of games but I don't think it's sustainable, noting that prior to that they had made good on 26 or fewer field goals in five straight contests. Take Stanford (10*).

My selection is on Eastern Michigan plus the points over Toledo at 5 pm et on Saturday.

I'm not convinced there's as wide of a gap separating these two MAC opponents as the pointspread indicates. Eastern Michigan managed to split its homestand thanks to a 66-54 win over Central Michigan last time out. The Eagles have hung tough defensively in recent weeks, limiting five of their last six opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. The outlier came in a narrow 95-91 loss but ATS cover at Kent State. It's been a different story for Toledo as it has been laboring defensively for much of the campaign. Most recently, the Rockets have allowed four straight and all but two of their 26 opponents this season to connect on 25+ field goals. Toledo itself has been terrific offensively but it's difficult to win by margin with consistency when you're so forgiving defensively. Finally, we'll note that Eastern Michigan does own the inferior overall record in this matchup this season but has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Take Eastern Michigan (8*).

My selection is on Southeastern Louisiana plus the points over Texas-Rio Grande Valley at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

We'll grab the points with the Lions as they look to rebound following consecutive losses suffered away from home. They've been a different team at home this season and certainly of late where they most recently swept a two-game homestand against Houston Christian and Incarnate Word. The Lions had an off shooting day against East Texas A&M last time out but had been trending in the right direction prior to that, knocking down 23, 28 and 25 field goals over their last three contests. I do think Texas-Rio Grande Valley will leave the door open for a competitive affair here as it has allowed its last four opponents to make good on 25, 26, 23 and 26 field goals. The Vaqueros are allowing too many scoring opportunities for my liking as their last six foes have all gotten off 58 or more field goal attempts. On the flip side, UTRGV has been trending in the wrong direction offensively. It has knocked down an identical 22 field goals in each of its last two games. Finally, we'll note that while the visiting Vaqueros do own the better overall record in this matchup this season, the Lions have faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Take Southeastern Louisiana (8*).

My selection is on Oregon plus the points over USC at 4 pm et on Saturday. 

No one wants a piece of Oregon here after it was 'upset' in blowout fashion against Minnesota on Tuesday. It's been a trying campaign for the Ducks but I do think they get up for this rematch against the Trojans after they were 'upset' in the first meeting in Autzen way back in early December. Note that USC has played matador-like defense lately, allowing its last five opponents to connect on 29, 26, 30, 29 and 32 field goals. On the flip side, USC has made good on 29, 26 and 23 field goals over its last three contests - clearly trending in the wrong direction - despite getting off 60+ field goal attempts in all three of those games. The Ducks do continue to clamp down defensively, limiting eight of their last nine opponents to 58 or fewer field goal attempts. In fact, Oregon has allowed 23 or fewer made field goals in three of its last four and four of its last six contests. Look for the Ducks to take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take Oregon (8*).

My selection is on Texas Tech minus the points over Kansas State at 2:30 pm et on Saturday.

We'll lay the points with Texas Tech as it looks to shake off an 'upset' loss suffered at Arizona State on Tuesday. I like the way this matchup sets up for the Red Raiders as Kansas State checks in off an 'upset' win of its own at Baylor earlier this week. The Wildcats have reeled off two straight ATS victories since firing their head coach but I expect that pointspread success to be short-lived. Kansas State has allowed its last five opponents to connect on 33, 27, 31, 24 and 28 field goals. They were fortunate that Baylor had an off shooting night last time out as they yielded a whopping 70 field goal attempts. If they do that against Texas Tech this game figures to get away from them in a hurry. The Red Raiders have been incredibly consistent defensively in recent weeks, holding four of their last five opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. The outlier came last time out against the Sun Devils but Arizona State still knocked down only 26-of-59 field goal attempts. Finally, we'll note that Texas Tech not only owns the better overall record in this matchup this season but has also faced the tougher schedule - one of the most difficult in the nation, in fact. Take Texas Tech (8*).

Horizon League Game of the Month. My selection is on Wisconsin-Milwaukee plus the points over Detroit at 7 pm et on Friday.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee will have 'revenge' on its mind on Friday after it suffered a disappointing double-digit home loss against Detroit on February 4th. The Panthers have gone 2-1 SU and ATS since that setback. They held off Green Bay 75-72 last time out despite shooting a miserable 19-for-45 from the field. That type of performance has been the exception rather than the rule. Note that they've connected on a consistent 24 or more field goals in 17 of their last 19 games, giving them a solid floor entering this matchup with a vulnerable Detroit defense. While Green Bay was able to slow the Milwaukee offense last time out, Detroit has been far more forgiving, allowing six of its last eight opponents to get off more than 60 field goal attempts. The Titans have allowed 11 of their last 12 opponents to connect on 25 or more field goals. Detroit does own the better overall record in this matchup this season but Milwaukee has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. We'll grab the points with the visitors here. Take Wisconsin-Milwaukee (10*).

My selection is on Lindenwood plus the points over Tennessee State at 8:30 pm et on Thursday.

Tennessee State went on the road and 'upset' Lindenwood 96-86 on January 24th as the Tigers quite simply shot the lights out, connecting on a ridiculous 41-of-68 field goal attempts in the victory. That type of performance has by no means been par for the course. In fact, Tennessee State enters this contest having knocked down just 22 and 23 field goals in its last two games. Save for an outlier performance against Western Illinois on February 7th, Tennessee State's opponents have been 'filling it up' lately, making good on 28, 26, 18, 26 and 32 field goals over its last five contests. That's despite the fact that it held all five of those opponents to 54 or fewer field goal attempts. Lindenwood enjoyed a stretch of three straight games in which it connected on 28 or more field goals before being limited to just 22 in a poor performance against Southeast Missouri State on Saturday. While it is not an elite defensive team by any means, Lindenwood has put a solid ceiling on its opposition, allowing 28 or fewer made field goals in six straight and nine of its last 10 contests (the aforementioned game against Tennessee State was the outlier). Finally, we'll note that while Tennessee State owns the slightly better overall record in this matchup this season, Lindenwood has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Take Lindenwood (8*).

Northeast Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Le Moyne plus the points over Central Connecticut State at 7 pm et on Thursday.

We'll grab the points with a revenge-minded Le Moyne team after it dropped a 69-59 'upset' decision at home against Central Connecticut State last month. The Dolphins roll into this game off three straight wins but they're not yet in uncharted territory as they did previous reel off four straight victories earlier this season. Note that their loss in the first meeting between these two teams essentially boiled down to the Dolphins failing to take advantage of their wealth of scoring opportunities, knocking down just 20-of-61 field goal attempts, and getting badly outscored at the free throw line. Le Moyne enters this contest having connected on 27 or more field goals in three of its last four games, despite playing at a slow pace (53 or fewer field goal attempts in all four contests). On the flip side, they've held two straight and 10 of their last 15 opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Central Connecticut State has eclipsed 26 made field goals in just three of its last 12 contests. The Blue Devils have allowed 27, 24, 24, 25 and 16 made field goals over their last five contests, despite holding four of those five opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. Finally, we'll note that while the Blue Devils do own the better overall record in this matchup this season, the Dolphins have faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Take Le Moyne (10*).

Conference USA Game of the Month. My selection is on Florida International plus the points over Liberty at 6 pm et on Thursday.

While few paid much attention, Florida International gave Liberty all it could handle in the first matchup between these two teams this season, dropping a 97-94 overtime decision back on December 28th. The Panthers are catching double-digits in Thursday's rematch and that's understandable as Liberty owns a 22-3 record this season and hasn't lost since December 10th against N.C. State. Off another satisfying win (and cover) against UTEP on Saturday, I think the Flames are in for a letdown here, however. It's worth noting that Florida International has faced a more difficult schedule than Liberty this season and it has navigated it admirably with a 12-13 record. I think the Panthers have a lot of upside right now as they enter Thursday's contest having made good on 26 or more field goals in six of their last seven games (they did need overtime to get there in one of those). On the flip side, they've allowed 26 or fewer made field goals in two straight and five of their last six contests. While the opposition has been able to run on the Panthers, the Flames don't generally go up-tempo, hoisting up 54 or fewer field goal attempts in 12 of their last 13 games. Liberty's last five opponents have connected on a healthy 23, 26, 27, 30 and 24 field goals. Take Florida International (10*).

My selection is on Troy minus the points over Louisiana-Monroe at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday.

Troy has had three days to stew over its second straight loss and I expect it to take its frustrations out on Louisiana-Monroe on Wednesday. The Trojans own the vastly superior overall record in this matchup this season and have also faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. While they've hit a bit of an offensive lull over their last couple of games, they've still connected on 25 or more field goals in three of their last four contests and figure to be brought to life by what is potentially the nation's worst defense on Wednesday. The Warhawks have allowed each of their last two opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. Going back further, they've yielded 62+ field goal attempts in five straight and seven of their last eight contests. With that type of volume, the Trojans should have no trouble bouncing back. Troy has limited six of its last seven and 10 of its last 13 opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. The Warhawks did connect on 31-of-56 field goal attempts in their loss but cover at Texas State on Saturday. That type of performance has been the exception rather than the rule, however, as they've been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in seven of their last 10 contests. Take Troy (8*).

My selection is on Army plus the points over Loyola-Maryland at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with Army in this rematch of an earlier Loyola-Maryland overtime victory this season. The Black Knights have had three days to stew over their fourth straight loss, suffered at the hands of American University on Saturday. Here, Army will look to snap that skid, earn some revenge, and salvage the finale of its two-game road trip. The scoring opportunities should be there for the Black Knights on Wednesday. They've gotten off 58 or more field goal attempts in four of their last six contests and face a Loyola-Maryland team that hasn't had much interest or success in slowing its opponents' pace. Note that the Greyhounds have yielded 58 or more field goal attempts in four of their last five games. On the flip side, Loyola-Maryland wants to get out and run but faces an Army defense that has held the opposition to 54 or fewer field goal attempts in three of its last four contests. Finally, we'll note that while Loyola-Maryland does own the better overall record in this matchup this season, Army has faced the more difficult schedule. Take Army (8*).

My selection is on Northern Illinois plus the points over Buffalo at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with Northern Illinois on Tuesday as it looks to snap its two-game slide. The Huskies went ice cold shooting over those two contests but I think they can be dragged along by a matador-like Buffalo defense that is coming off a rare strong performance at that end of the floor against Ball State. The Bulls have had five days to pat themselves on the back after they snapped their three-game slide with that 63-53 victory. Note that prior to that contest, Buffalo had allowed 28 or more made field goals in four straight and seven of its last nine games. On the flip side, I'm not convinced the Bulls should be laying this many points considering they've knocked down 24 or fewer field goals in three straight contests. While Northern Illinois has really struggled at times defensively, it has still limited six of its last eight opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals. Buffalo does own the better overall record in this matchup this season but Northern Illniois has faced the more difficult schedule. Additionally, the Huskies will be looking to avenge an 81-67 loss in the lone previous meeting back in December. I think that game was a little closer than the final score indicated with the difference being the Huskies woeful shooting from beyond the arc (7-for-32 from three-point range). In this bounce-back spot, I think we'll see Northern Illinois close the gap. Take Northern Illinois (8*).

Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Iowa State at 9 pm et on Monday.

Bettors seem to be confidently backing Iowa State after it delivered a blowout win at home against Kansas on Saturday. The Cyclones can breathe a sigh of relief as they opened a difficult stretch on their schedule with that lopsided victory, avoiding a second straight loss in the process. I think things are going to be tougher for Iowa State on Monday, however, as it hosts Houston. The Cougars not only own the slightly better overall record in this matchup this season but they've also faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Offensively, I think these two teams match up fairly evenly. With that being said, it has been Houston that has consistently afforded itself more scoring opportunities for much of the campaign. Recently, the Cougars have gotten off 64, 61, 60 and 59 field goal attempts over their last four games, thriving in an up-tempo environment. On the flip side, I'll give the edge to Houston. The Cougars are undoubtedly elite defensively. They enter this contest having held five straight opponents to 21 or fewer made field goals. They've allowed 20 or fewer made field goals on an incredible 13 occasions - more than half of their games - this season. Iowa State has been locked-in defensively over its last couple of games as well, limiting TCU and Kansas to 21 and 19 successful field goal attempts, respectively. Prior to that, however, it had allowed 23 or more made field goals in five of its last seven contests. This figures to be a nip-and-tuck affair all the way but I like catching points with what I feel is the better team in Houston. Take Houston (10*).

CAA Game of the Month. My selection is on Towson plus the points over Monmouth at 7 pm et on Sunday.

Towson will have 'revenge' on its mind after it suffered a 62-48 home loss to Monmouth in the first meeting between these two teams this season. The Tigers actually got off a whopping 66 field goal attempts (compared to the Hawks' 47) in that game but couldn't take advantage, knocking down only 18 of them. That matchup took place during a serious lull for the Towson offense but we have seen the wheels start to turn lately as it has connected on 25, 24, 27, 30, 16 and 26 field goals over its last six contests. On the flip side, the Tigers have limited 10 of their last 15 opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals and have done a good job of keeping a lid on the opposition by allowing fewer than 60 field goal attempts in 19 of 26 contests. Monmouth wants to get out and run, noting that it has hoisted up 60+ field goal attempts in four straight games entering Sunday's action. Of note, the Hawks knocked down 31 field goals in their most recent game - a 93-73 rout at Drexel on Thursday. They've followed up their previous five 30+ made field goal performances this season by knocking down only 22, 22, 19, 25 and 28 (helped by overtime) field goals in their next game. There's not much separating these two teams in terms of overall records this season - in fact, Towson owns the slightly better mark thanks to playing on extra game - and the Tigers have faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. Take Towson (10*).

Summit League Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Nebraska-Omaha at 1 pm et on Sunday.

There was virtually nothing separating these two teams in their first matchup this season as Nebraska-Omaha staged an 84-82 'upset' win in Denver on January 31st. The two teams own identical overall records this season but Denver has faced the more difficult schedule by most metrics. We'll grab the points with the visiting Pioneers on Sunday as they look to avenge that earlier loss. While few are paying much attention, Denver has been on an incredible offensive tear since the second week of December. The Pioneers have made good on 28 or more field goals in an unreal 16 of their last 18 games. They do play at a fast pace but that should continue against a Nebraska-Omaha team that has played matador-like defense lately, yielding 60 or more field goal attempts to six straight opponents. The case can be made for these two teams heading in opposite directions defensively in recent contests. Denver, despite playing at that up-tempo pace, has held four of its last five opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, Omaha had a terrific stretch of defensive basketball in January but has now allowed three of its last four opponents to knock down 30+ field goals. Of course, the Mavericks have shot the lights out at times including in their last two games but I look for the Pioneers to make the necessary adjustments and secure a revenge-fuelled win in this rematch. Take Denver (10*).

My selection is on Long Beach State plus the points over Cal-Davis at 5 pm et on Saturday.

I don't think there's a lot separating these two teams despite what their overall records say. Long Beach State has the worse overall record but has faced the tougher schedule by most metrics. Here, the 49ers will be looking to end their long six-game losing streak. Meanwhile, Cal-Davis had its four-game winning streak snapped in blowout fashion at UC-San Diego on Thursday. The Aggies have now connected on 26 or fewer field goals in 10 straight games and it's not as if they play at an incredibly slow pace. On the flip side, they've yielded 26 or more made field goals in six of their last eight contests. Long Beach State, while struggling to find the win column lately, has knocked down 25 or more field goals in three straight and four of its last five games. The 49ers last game was an outlier of sorts as they allowed 30 made field goals - the only the second time since December 30th they allowed an opponent to connect on more than 27. Take Long Beach State (8*).

Southern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Western Carolina plus the points over Chattanooga at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

I think the case can be made for the wrong team being favored in this matchup. Chattanooga defeated Western Carolina 90-82 on the road in the first meeting between these two teams this season. There's little separating the two teams in terms of overall record but Western Carolina has faced the more difficult schedule. The Catamounts snapped their three-game SU and ATS losing streak with a decisive 87-49 win at The Citadel on Wednesday. Chattanooga on the other hand has had a difficult time getting on track, going 1-6 SU and 3-4 ATS over its last seven games since that win at Western Carolina on January 17th (that marked its third straight victory at the time and was part of a four-game ATS winning streak). I like the consistency Western Carolina has showed offensively, connecting on 25 or more field goals in 12 straight games entering Saturday's action. Chattanooga has knocked down more than 25 field goals just once in its last seven games and that came in an 'upset' loss at home against The Citadel. On the flip side, the Mocs are coming off a stellar defensive effort against East Tennessee State last time out but they still lost that game by double-digits. They've had a tough time stringing together consecutive strong defensive showings. After holding an opponent to 21 or fewer made field goals they've allowed 25, 26, 30, 30 and 29 in their last five tries in that situation. Take Western Carolina (10*).

Southland Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Houston Christian at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

We'll back New Orleans on Saturday as it looks to avenge an earlier 85-76 'upset' loss suffered at home against Houston Christian. That was a somewhat stunning result but it came relatively early in the season in the first week of December. We've seen these two teams go on divergent paths since with the Privateers owning the better overall record and having faced the more difficult schedule. New Orleans checks in off a dismal offensive showing last time out but it still managed to outlast Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in overtime. Houston Christian is one of the country's weakest offensive teams. It enters this contest having connected on 24 or fewer field goals in six straight games, eclipsing that mark just twice since December 15th. On the flip side, Houston Christian's opponents have been 'filling it up', making good on 26 or more field goals in 15 of its last 19 contests. Take New Orleans (10*).

My selection is on Hofstra plus the points over UNC-Wilmington at 4 pm et on Saturday.

We missed fading UNC-Wilmington on Thursday as Elon trailed virtually the whole game and a mild second half rally wasn't enough for the cover. I won't hesitate to go back to the well fading the Seahawks on Saturday, however. Hofstra has reeled off four straight wins including an 'upset' victory at College of Charleston on Thursday. With only a day between games, there hasn't been a lot of time for it to 'pat itself on the back' too much for that recent stretch. I look for the Pride to continue to play well here, noting that they've held four straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals and 19 of their last 23 foes to 25 or fewer. UNC-Wilmington has limited its last two opponents to exactly 20 made field goals. Prior to that it has yielded 27 or more in seven straight contests, however. Also of note, there's a fairly firm ceiling on the Seahawks offense as they've connected on fewer than 30 field goals in 12 straight and 16 of their last 17 games with the lone outlier coming against little known Columbia College (SC). Take Hofstra (8*).

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on James Madison plus the points over Appalachian State at 4 pm et on Saturday.

Appalachian State is clearly in uncharted territory right now as it has won a season-high seven straight games. The Mountaineers will try to beat James Madison for a second time this season after delivering an 80-65 victory at home back on January 15th. The visiting Dukes couldn't get anything going offensively in that contest but I look for a different story to unfold here. Appalachian State has certainly been tough defensively but James Madison can take some solace in the fact that it did generate 60 field goal attempts in the first meeting and the Mountaineers last two opponents have made some headway, knocking down 25 and 24 field goals. The Dukes can play some defense as well. They've allowed their last two foes to connect on 28 and 27 field goals but the latter affair went to overtime. Prior to that two-game stretch they had held their last four opponents to 19, 22, 21 and 23 made field goals. It's not as if Appalachian State has been rolling offensively. It has knocked down 23 or fewer field goals in five of its last six games. Look for James Madison to get its revenge here. Take James Madison (10*).

My selection is on Florida minus the points over Kentucky at 3 pm et on Saturday. 

I don't think anyone is stopping Florida right now as the Gators have taken it out on their opposition since an 'upset' loss against Auburn back on January 24th. Florida not only owns the better overall record in this matchup this season but has also faced the slightly more difficult schedule by most metrics. The Gators enter this game on an incredible run offensively. They've connected on more than 30 field goals in four straight and 11 of their last 14 contests. Despite affording their opposition a ton of scoring opportunities, they've still held six straight and eight of their last nine opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals. Kentucky enters this game playing well also. It has knocked down 30, 30 and 28 field goals over its last three games. Keep in mind, prior to that it had been held to fewer than 20 made field goals in back-to-back games. All told, the Wildcats have connected on 30 or more field goals just twice in their last eight games. They've had a week to pat themselves on the back following their win over Tennessee (and successful two-game homestand sweep). Take Florida (8*).

My selection is on Oregon minus the points over Penn State at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Oregon has had four days to stew over its 10th straight loss and I look for it to finally snap its skid on get back on track against Penn State on Saturday. The Nittany Lions stunned Washington as double-digit underdogs on Thursday, ending their own two-game slide. I think the door is wide open for the Ducks to get loose in this one, however, noting that the NIttany Lions have allowed six of their last eight opponents to knock down 29 or more field goals. They earned a reprieve of sorts on Thursday as the Huskies turned in a dismal offensive showing, connecting on only 23-of-61 field goal attempts. Penn State continues to play matador-like defense, allowing three straight and six of its last eight opponents to hoist up 60+ field goal attempts. You can see the wheels turning for the Ducks offensively of late as they've knocked down 23, 24 and 25 field goals over their last three games, despite an absolutely brutal slate of opponents including Iowa, Purdue and Indiana with the latter two games coming on the road. On the flip side, Oregon has held eight of its last 12 foes to 27 or fewer made field goals. Penn State has been held to 25 or fewer made field goals in nine of its last 12 contests. Take Oregon (8*).

My selection is on Samford plus the points over East Tennessee State at 12 noon et on Saturday.

These two teams met earlier this season with East Tennessee State eking out a one-point road victory. Both teams enter this contest red hot but I simply feel the Buccaneers are laying too many points. While the Bulldogs own the worse overall record in this matchup this season, they have faced the tougher schedule by most metrics. Samford has been incredibly consistent offensively in recent weeks and months, making good on 24 or more field goals in five straight and 15 of its last 16 games. On the flip side, the Bulldogs are coming off a shaky defensive effort against Wofford but that had a lot to do with game script as they ultimately won by 17 points. Also of note, they've had a tendency to bounce back from poor defensive performances. All told, they've held four of their last six opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. East Tennessee State has won four straight games but we have seen it sag a bit defensively, with its last five opponents knocking down 29, 26, 29, 24 and 22 field goals (note that one game saw overtime against Furman over that stretch). In the first meeting between these two teams, Samford afforded itself six more field goal attempts but ETSU effectively shot the lights out in a narrow one-point win. Take Samford (8*).

MAAC Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Rider plus the points over Mount St. Mary's at 7 pm et on Friday.

Mount St. Mary's owns the better overall record in this matchup this season but Rider has faced the more difficult schedule and the hometown Broncs will have revenge on their minds on Friday as they look to get back at the Mountaineers after suffering a 71-61 loss on the road on January 24th. In that contest, Rider actually got off a whopping 63 field goal attempts compared to Mount St. Mary's 46. The Broncs simply weren't able to take advantage. While Rider is coming off an ugly blowout loss at home against Merrimack last time out, prior to that it had connected on 23 or more field goals in 10 of its last 12 games. It has found a way to push the pace a little bit and should be able to do so again with Mount St. Mary's checking in having allowed seven of its last eight opponents to get off 59 or more field goal attempts. The Mountaineers aren't exactly thriving offensively. They've made good on 25 or fewer field goals in seven straight and 11 of their last 12 contests. That's not a great recipe for laying points on the road against a revenge-minded foe. Take Rider (10*).

My selection is on Elon plus the points over UNC-Wilmington at 7 pm et on Thursday.

I'm not convinced there's as much separating these two teams as their overall records indicate this season. UNC-Wilmington has been the better team but it has also faced the weaker schedule. Elon has had four days to stew over its third straight loss, both SU and ATS. Of note, all three of those losses came by eight points or less with the largest margin of defeat over that stretch coming in an overtime game. Elon has limited four straight opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals, despite one of those contests going to extra time. I do think it can keep a lid on a UNC-Wilmington offense that hasn't always been explosive. You would have to go all the way back to December 27th to find the last time the Seahawks knocked down 30 or more field goals and that came against little-known Columbia College. UNC-Wilmington hasn't exactly been locked-in defensively either, allowing seven of its last eight opponents to connect on at least 26 field goals, leaving the door open for Elon to hang tough on Thursday. Take Elon (8*).

My selection is on IU-Indy plus the points over Northern Kentucky at 6:30 pm et on Thursday.

Northern Kentucky cruised to an 81-72 win in the first meeting between these two teams this season. The Norse do own the better overall record in this matchup but IU-Indy has faced the tougher schedule by most metrics. I like the Jaguars chances of taking this one down to the wire at the very least. IU-Indy comes off a hard-fought 92-88 home loss to Milwaukee two nights ago so it will be looking to salvage the finale of its three-game homestand here. The Jaguars check in playing well offensively, having made good on 29 or more field goals in three straight and seven of their last eight games. Northern Kentucky has done little to keep a lid on the pace of its opposition this season so I do expect IU-Indy to find continued success. The question becomes whether the Jaguars can slow the Norse. Note that they have held six straight and nine of their last 11 opponents to 28 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go all the way back to December 3rd to find the last time they allowed an opponent to hoist up more than 61 field goal attempts so I do think there's a good chance they at least put a reasonable ceiling on the Norse offense here. Take IU-Indy (8*).

My selection is on Bryant plus the points over UMass-Lowell at 6 pm et on Thursday.

We'll grab all the points we can get with Bryant in this contest as it looks to avenge an earlier 'upset' loss suffered at home against UMass-Lowell. The Bulldogs own the inferior record compared to the River Hawks this season but it's worth noting that they've also faced the tougher schedule by most metrics. You can see the wheels turning a little bit for the Bulldogs offensively of late as they've connected on 26, 24 and 23 field goals over their last three games, despite playing at a slow pace. Keep in mind, prior to that stretch they had been held to 20 or fewer made field goals in four of their previous five contests. On the flip side, we've also seen Bryant hold the opposition to 24 or fewer made field goals in five of its last seven games. UMass-Lowell shot the lights out in an 'upset' win at Albany last timeout. You can be sure the River Hawks are breathing a sigh of relief after that victory as it came on the heels of an ugly 81-56 loss at NJIT. Here, I can't help but think they're in for a letdown as they return home. Note that UMass-Lowell has allowed 27 or more made field goals in three straight and five of its last six contests. Take Bryant (8*).

My selection is on Washington minus the points over Penn State at 10:30 pm et on Wednesday.

Penn State 'emptied the tank' in a 77-75 loss at home against USC on Sunday, connecting on a blistering 30-of-58 field goal attempts but still falling short for its second straight loss. The Nittany Lions head west to open a two-game road trip against Washington on Wednesday. Penn State owns the worse overall record in this matchup this season and has also faced the weaker schedule by most metrics. While the Nittany Lions were red hot offensively on Sunday that's been the exception rather than the rule. Note that they've been held to 25 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last 11 games. On the flip side, they've proven vulnerable defensively, allowing their last seven opponents to connect on 33, 36, 30, 38, 27, 40 and 29 field goals. Washington on the other hand, has been idle since Saturday's narrow loss at UCLA, marking its second straight defeat. The Huskies have been incredibly consistent offensively for much of the season. They've knocked down 26 or more field goals in six straight and 15 of their last 17 games. On the flip side, they've held their last five opponents to 15, 27, 22, 28 and 23 made field goals. While the Nittany Lions have done little to slow their opponents' pace, yielding 60+ field goal attempts in five of their last seven contests, the Huskies have limited three straight and five of their last six foes to 57 or fewer field goal attempts. Take Washington (8*).

Atlantic Sun Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Queens-Charlotte minus the points over Austin Peay at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

Austin Peay enters this game red hot on the heels of six straight wins, going 4-2 ATS over that stretch. Of note, the Governors are entering uncharted territory as they've covered the spread in consecutive games. As well as they've played, they've yet to deliver three straight ATS victories this season. While they do own the better overall record in this matchup this season as well, Queens-Charlotte has faced the more difficult schedule. The Royals have put a recent three-game SU and ATS slide behind them, delivering back-to-back wins and covers. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team as locked-in offensively as the Royals have connected on 27 or more field goals in an incredible 11 of their last 12 games. They've knocked down 30+ field goals in two straight and 11 of their last 12 contests. Here, they'll face a Governors team that has been vulnerable defensively, allowing 25 or more made field goals in nine of their last 10 games. Queens-Charlotte wants to push the pace and Austin Peay has been matador-like in that regard, allowing four straight opponents to hoist up more than 60 field goal attempts. On the flip side, Queens-Charlotte has held seven straight opponents to 57 or fewer field goal attempts. Only three of the Royals last 11 opponents have connected on more than 26 field goals. Take Queens-Charlotte (10*).

My selection is on Utah State minus the points over Fresno State at 9 pm et on Tuesday.

In terms of strength of schedule, there's literally nothing separating these two teams this season according to most metrics. It's a much different story in terms of overall records, however, as Utah State has quietly navigated itself to a 20-3 overall record compared to Fresno State's 11-12 mark. The Bulldogs snuck in the back door and spoiled our play on Nevada on Saturday. The Wolf Pack couldn't have played much worse for the majority of that game, yet they still ended up winning by 10 points. I'm not convinced Fresno State will afford itself enough scoring opportunities to ultimately keep Tuesday's contest within arm's reach. Note that the Bulldogs have gotten off 54 or fewer field goal attempts in eight of their last 10 contests with the two outliers coming in a 19-point rout at the hands of San Diego State and a blowout win over a hapless Air Force squad. Utah State has been on point offensively, connecting on 28 or more field goals in four of its last five and 16 of 23 contests this season. The Aggies are coming off a poor defensive showing on the road against Wyoming on Saturday but perhaps that was to be expected as they were in a clear letdown spot off a 20-point rout of New Mexico three nights earlier. Note that Utah State has still held four of its last five and 15 of its last 21 opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. The previous meeting between these two teams this season was closer than expected as Utah State turned in a rather sleepy offensive performance in a nine-point road win. Keep in mind, the Aggies were coming off a nine-day layoff over the holidays and had scored a whopping 100 points on a blistering 37-of-58 shooting in their previous contest. It's a different situation on Tuesday and I look for Utah State to roll. Take Utah State (8*).

My selection is on Alcorn State minus the points over Mississippi Valley State at 8 pm et on Monday.

Alcorn State will welcome the opportunity to step down in class for a change on Monday as it heads on the road to take on one-win Mississippi Valley State. Note that the visiting Braves not only own the better overall record in this matchup this season but they've also faced the more difficult schedule. Here, they'll be looking to salvage the finale of a two-game road trip and snap their two-game slide. Of note, the Braves have connected on 28 or more field goals in three of their last four games. They'll face a Delta Devils squad that has played matador-like defense, yielding 29, 28, 22, 27, 24 and 28 made field goals over their last six contests. Opponents haven't really pushed the pace all that much on them but that's been more a show of mercy than anything else. Mississippi Valley State has connected on 28, 23 and 29 field goals over its last three games but it got off 63 or more field goal attempts in two of those contests. Alcorn State has done a good job of limiting its opponents scoring opportunities, holding 10 straight foes to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. We have seen the opposition shoot the lights out on the Braves at times but I'm not convinced we'll see that from the Delta Devils here. Keep in mind, prior to its most recent three-game stretch, Mississippi Valley State had been held to 22 or fewer made field goals in nine of its previous 12 contests. Take Alcorn State (8*).

SWAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Florida A&M minus the points over Prairie View A&M at 7 pm et on Monday.

I really like the way this one sets up for Florida A&M as it looks to end its four-game SU and ATS slide. While Prairie View A&M does own the slightly better overall record in this matchup this season, Florida A&M has faced the more difficult schedule. The Rattlers are coming off three consecutive poor shooting performances, making good on just 20, 23 and 18 field goals over that stretch. The good news is, they'll be taking a step down in class here to face a Prairie View defense that has yielded 27 or more successful field goal attempts in six straight games. While the Rattlers don't generally push the pace all that much, they may take advantage of the opportunity to get loose here, noting that the Panthers have allowed five of their last seven opponents to get off 60+ field goal attempts with a low-water mark of 58 over that stretch. The Rattlers recent struggles have had little to do with their defensive play. They've held six of their last seven opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. Prairie View has connected on 24, 28 and 27 field goals over its last three games but that's thanks to hoisting up 65 or more field goal attempts in all three contests. Florida A&M figures to keep a lid on the Prairie View offense, noting that it has held an incredible 10 of its last 11 foes to 55 or fewer field goal attempts. Take Florida A&M (10*).

My selection is on Northwestern plus the points over Iowa at 3 pm et on Sunday.

Northwestern may be 10-13 on the season but it has faced one of the toughest schedules in the entire country by most metrics so not a lot more could have been expected. The Wildcats enter this game off an embarrassing 84-44 loss at Illinois last time out. They've had three days to shake off that defeat - their second in a row. On the flip side, Iowa has had a few days to pat itself on the back after a perfect two-game road trip to the Pacific Northwest and enters riding a five-game winning streak. The Hawkeyes have covered the spread in consecutive games and that's notable as they haven't strung together more than two straight ATS victories since a four-game streak in mid-December. While Iowa has done a terrific job of limiting its opponents scoring opportunities, Northwestern has found a way to push the pace a little bit, hoisting up more than 60 field goal attempts in seven of its last 15 contests. The last two games haven't gone well for the Wildcats but prior to that they had limited 10 of their last 12 opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals - the type of effort that would likely keep them within arm's reach in this matchup. While Iowa has been winning by margin, it has actually gotten off 56 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight games. Of note, it has shown some regression defensively in recent contests, allowing its last three foes to connect on 28, 23 and 26 field goals. Take Northwestern (8*).