Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-15-24 | Rockies v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Monday. The Phillies saw their 10-game 'under' streak grind to a halt against the Pirates yesterday. I expect to see a bit of a correction moving forward, continuing with Monday's date with the Rockies. Colorado starter Cal Quantrill couldn't make a go of it in Cleveland and won't find life any easier with one of the worst teams in baseball. Quantrill figures to get hit hard by a Phillies team that is looking to bounce back from Sunday's loss. Aaron Nola is often priced as an elite pitcher for the Phillies but I don't necessarily think he falls into that category. Nola owns a 6.75 FIP and 1.50 WHIP through three starts spanning 16 innings this season and while those numbers are sure to come down, how much remains to be seen. Take the over (8*). |
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04-15-24 | Guardians v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Boston at 11:10 am et on Monday. Few are probably expecting much in the way of offensive fireworks in this early morning start on Marathon Day in Boston. I'll go the other way and call for a relatively high-scoring affair as the two teams are well-positioned to score early and often. Xzavion Curry gets his first start of the season for the Guardians after getting an audition for a starting job late last year. In just over 100 big league innings, Curry owns a 4.64 FIP and 1.41 WHIP. We know what we're going to get from the right-hander, who I should mention is unlikely to work deep into this ball game. It's a similar story with Kutter Crawford of the Red Sox. He has punched above his weight class in his first three starts this season but I expect regression moving forward. Like Curry, he's not a candidate to work deep into ball games. The Guardians have the type of lineup that puts a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers and can certainly move the line. I think these two teams go back-and-forth all day long. Take the over (8*). |
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04-14-24 | Nationals v. A's OVER 8.5 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We haven't seen much offense so far in this series and I suppose that's to be expected with these two lineups. I do think we'll see a different story unfold on Sunday, however, as the Nationals send Trevor Williams to the hill against Alex Wood of the A's. Both starters are coming off fine outings last time out. I question whether either can string together a second straight positive outing though. Williams recorded a 5.98 FIP and 1.60 WHIP for the Nats last year. Pitchers of his age and quality don't tend to turn things around at this stage of their career. Wood is a journeyman left-hander that has posted a 4.55 FIP and 1.95 WHIP through three starts this season. The Nats can get to him here. Take the over (8*). |
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04-13-24 | Rockies v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. The Rockies bats exploded in the series opener between these two teams last night. I expect the Blue Jays to return the favor against Colorado starter Dakota Hudson on Saturday but question whether Toronto's pitching staff can stem the tide with Yariel Rodriguez getting the call to make his big league debut. Rodriguez is a bit of a Wild Card having mostly excelled as a reliever in Japan. The Blue Jays are certainly believers in him after handing him a $32 million contract but it remains to be seen how he'll perform at the big league level. For now, I'm not anticipating him to work deep into this ball game, nor do I expect him to completely shut down the Rockies bats. Toronto's bullpen hasn't been good and there's no help coming at the moment. Given how I expect the Jays bats to perform in this game I don't think we'll need much from the Rockies to get this one 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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04-12-24 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We'll pick on the two starters in this divisional matchup as neither arm has the track record to shine in this particular spot. Dane Dunning can succeed at times for the Rangers but it's more a matter of holding the opposing bats at bay just enough for his team's offense to take care of the rest. Dunning isn't shutting many opponents down. It's a similar story for J.P. France. He has actually recorded a terrific 2.43 FIP through two outings this season but regression figures to be on his way, noting he has posted a lofty 1.50 WHIP. Off a 1-0 loss to the A's yesterday the Rangers bats figure to wake up and it's worth mentioning that they just faced France last week, plating three earned runs over 5 2/3 innings. The damage could have been even worse as France yielded eight hits and two walks while striking out only four. Dunning fared slightly better against the Astros and has solid career numbers against them. Note the he's faced them just once in Houston and lasted only four innings after giving up four earned runs on seven hits. Take the over (10*). |
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04-11-24 | Orioles v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | 9-4 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The bats came to life at Fenway Park last night with the Orioles rallying for a 7-5 victory. I look for a lower-scoring affair as the series wraps up on Thursday evening. This game features two promising starting pitchers in Grayson Rodriguez and Garrett Whitlock. There's not a lot bad you can say about either one of them in the early going this season other than Rodriguez having had a penchant for allowing home runs. He does minimize the damage by not putting a lot of runners on base. Whitlock, meanwhile, has recorded a 2.25 FIP and 1.18 WHIP in his first two outings this season. The Boston bullpen imploded last night but had been solid previously. The O's 'pen is as advertised. Take the under (8*). |
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04-10-24 | Dodgers v. Twins UNDER 9 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Minnesota at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. Bobby Miller and Chris Paddack are two starting pitchers that I'm willing to support in the early going this season. Miller is coming off a shaky outing against the Cubs at Wrigley Field but still sports a 2.45 FIP and 1.17 WHIP through his first two starts this season. He's got the potential to eventually be a top of the rotation arm for the Dodgers. Meanwhile, Chris Paddack continues to work his way back from 2022 Tommy John surgery. The Twins are believers in him and I am as well, noting that the right-hander has showed flashes for Minnesota after shining at the minor league level in brief action in each of the last two seasons. Paddack won't be asked to do too much in this matinee affair but can fend the Dodgers off long enough to help this one stay 'under' the total. Take the under (8*). |
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04-07-24 | Phillies v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Washington at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. While it features back-of-the-rotation starters, I do think we'll see a pretty good pitching matchup on Sunday afternoon in Washington. Christopher Sanchez had a miserable Spring but shook that off to toss five quality innings in his regular season debut, striking out eight while allowing just two earned runs against the Reds. He was serviceable last year, recording a 3.99 FIP and 1.05 WHIP in just shy of 100 innings pitched. Mackenzie Gore will counter for Washington. He was shaky in his first regular season outing. There are going to be plenty of ups and downs with Gore but the potential is there to rise to the occasion in spots like this one where the Nationals are trying to avoid the sweep. The Phillies aren't exactly tearing the cover off the baseball right now having scored more than four runs just twice in seven games to date. Take the under (8*). |
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04-06-24 | Dodgers v. Cubs UNDER 8 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Chicago at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams yesterday afternoon at Wrigley Field but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday. Yoshinobu Yamomoto had a rough Spring and followed it up with a shaky regular season debut for the Dodgers. However, his second start went a lot better and I look for him to build off of that performance here. Note that Yamamoto actually dropped his FIP all the way to 1.85 on the campaign following his most recent effort. His opposing starter on Saturday will be Jordan Wicks. I'm relatively high on the Cubs left-hander who dazzled in the Spring and while he didn't have his best stuff in his first regular season outing, he did hang in there for four innings allowing only two earned runs, logging a 2.43 FIP. Look for runs to come at a premium at Wrigley on Saturday. Take the under (8*). |
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04-05-24 | Mariners v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 5-6 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We saw what we needed to from Mariners starter Logan Gilbert in his regular season debut as he was dominant over seven innings against the Guardians. Now he faces a similarly tricky lineup in Milwaukee but I'm confident he'll be up to the task. Brewers starter Freddy Peralta has quite simply been the picture of consistency when healthy and he shook off a rough Spring to toss six razor sharp innings in his first start of the campaign. The Mariners bats have yet to wake up from their Spring slumber, already held to one run or less on three different occasions this season. Take the under (8*). |
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04-05-24 | Diamondbacks v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. I love the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring game in Atlanta on Friday. Tommy Henry will get the start for the visiting Diamondbacks. Even the most casual observer could see that there was trouble brewing for Henry last season. He had an awful Spring and followed it up with an ugly regular season debut last week. Now he draws an extremely difficult test in the Braves home opener on Friday. Spencer Strider was lights out in the Spring but his first regular season outing was about what we've come to expect from the Braves ace - plenty of strikeouts (eight) but also a couple of runs allowed. I do think the D'Backs bats can get to him here, even if he does end up hanging another crooked number of K's on the board. The potential for a 6-5 type of game is there in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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04-03-24 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'm anticipating a low-scoring affair as the Giants and Dodgers do battle in the third game of their series on Wednesday. Kyle Harrison is a pitcher I'm willing to get behind as he comes off a a fine rookie campaign in which he proved he has the stuff to deceive hitters at the big league level. Tyler Glasnow is of course already an elite starter that earned a big contract from the Dodgers in the offseason and has been terrific through two starts this season (following a lights out Spring), allowing only nine of 42 batters he has faced to reach base. Expect runs to come at a premium in this one. Take the under (8*). |
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04-03-24 | Reds v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Philadelphia at 1:05 pm et on Wednesday. It's not too often we can talk about a potential pitcher's duel in a game involving these two teams but I do think that is the case on Wednesday. Frankie Montas had a rough Spring as he works his way back from injuries. He shrugged it off in his regular season debut, however, as he allowed just four of 21 batters to reach base over six shutout frames against the Nationals. Montas still has terrific stuff, his health is the only real concern and that's not a big issue at the moment. Zack Wheeler will counter for Philadelphia. He was also terrific in his regular season debut, allowing only five of 23 batters to reach base in six shutout innings. Wheeler was also lights out in the Spring, recording a 1.26 ERA and 0.63 WHIP in 14 1/3 innings of work. Take the under (8*). |
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04-02-24 | Twins v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Milwaukee at 4:10 pm et on Tuesday. I think we're going to see a better pitching matchup than most are expecting as these interleague foes square off on Tuesday afternoon in Milwaukee. Louie Varland has always had potential but ended up getting demoted last season after coming down with case of the yips and proving unable to keep the ball in the park. He did fare better after getting called back up in September and there's reason to believe he can battle for a spot in the Twins starting rotation this season. Jake Junis is in a similar boat potential-wise. He simply hasn't been able to put it all together but has certainly shown flashes of brilliance in time spent with the Royals and Giants. While the Twins do have some terrific hitters sprinkled in their starting nine, they're not going to be an offensive juggernaut, as we saw in their first series as they plated just nine runs in three games against the Royals. Take the under (8*). |
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04-01-24 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The Giants are coming off an exceptionally high-scoring series in San Diego. Meanwhile, the Dodgers saw plenty of runs in their home series against the Cardinals. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as these N.L. West rivals match up for the first time in 2024. Keaton Winn will take the ball for the visiting Giants. He's probably better than a back-of-the-rotation starter after an up-and-down 2023 campaign. Winn saw limited action in the Spring but did record a 3.18 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He's a ground ball pitcher with an effective splitter that should keep the Dodgers mighty bats guessing on Monday. Veteran James Paxton joins the Dodgers after spending last season with the Red Sox. He should benefit from moving over to the National League (and making most of his starts at Dodger Stadium) at this stage of his career. Paxton worked seven innings in the Spring, logging a 5.14 ERA but a solid 1.14 WHIP. Take the under (10*). |
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11-01-23 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Arizona at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Rangers held on for an 11-7 victory to push the Diamondbacks to the brink of elimination. This Game 5 matchup will feature a rematch of Game 1 of the series with Nathan Eovaldi going up against Zac Gallen. While Eovaldi has been a good luck charm for the Rangers in these playoffs (they've yet to lose with him on the mound), Gallen has struggled. I do think we'll see the latter rise to the occasion in this must-win game at home though, noting that his strikeout-to-walk ratio nearly doubles at home compared to on the road and he has recorded a sparkling 2.47 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 16 outings at Chase Field this season. There's been no real difference whether Eovaldi has been on the road or at home this season and while he didn't have his best stuff in the series-opener, he still struck out eight while walking only one in 4 2/3 innings of work. The bullpens were asked to take on a lot of mop-up duty last night. Here, I look for both teams relief corps' to lock right back in as this figures to be a tightly-contested affair. Take the under (8*). |
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10-10-23 | Astros v. Twins UNDER 8 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
ALDS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Minnesota at 4:05 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way the 'under' sets up in Game 3 of this series on Tuesday afternoon in Minnesota. Astros starter Cristian Javier had a tough regular season as a whole. Big things were expected of the young right-hander after a phenomenal 2022 campaign but he struggled for the most part. The good news is, he did close out the campaign in solid form, posting a 2.30 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over his last three starts. Also note that Javier, while young, has been here before, logging a 4-1 record to go along with a 2.20 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 14 career playoff appearances. Twins starter Sonny Gray has recorded a 2.67 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this season - Cy Young Award-caliber numbers for the underrated right-hander. Gray tossed five shutout innings against the Blue Jays in the Wild Card round. For his career, Gray owns a 2.39 ERA with 24 strikeouts in five postseason appearances. Both bullpens are in solid form and of course the off day on Monday helps their cause. Also note that Bill Miller will be the umpire on Tuesday and he has seen the 'under' cash at a 440-363 clip over the course of his career, including a 17-12 mark this season. Take the under (10*). |
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10-07-23 | Phillies v. Braves OVER 8.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. I expect plenty of runs on the board as the Braves send Spencer Strider to the hill against Ranger Suarez in Game 1 of this NLDS on Saturday. Current Braves hitters have actually been held at bay to a certain extent by Suarez, combining to go 27-for-113 (.239). However, four different Braves have homered off of the left-hander previously and I believe a number of bats in their lineup are in line for some positive regression here. Note that Michael Harris in particular is just 1-for-13 against Suarez but hasn't really been getting fooled, striking out only twice. That's a common theme. As a whole, the Braves have struck out just 23 times while walking 16 times against Suarez. Compare that to Spencer Strider against current Phillies hitters. Strider has held the Philadelphia bats to a 25-for-146 (.171) ledger at the dish, racking up a whopping 60 strikeouts while walking only 10. With that said, four different Phillies hitters have also homered off of Strider. If the Braves have an achilles heel it's their bullpen as they've blown 13 saves at home this season and rate out poorly in terms of hits and home runs allowed. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 151-111 with the Phillies coming off a win over a division opponent in which they allowed one run or less, leading to an average total of 9.5 runs in that situation while the 'over' is 21-8 with the Braves at home seeking revenge for a one-run loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 10.6 runs. Take the over (8*). |
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10-04-23 | Rangers v. Rays OVER 8 | 7-1 | Push | 0 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Tampa Bay at 3:05 pm et on Wednesday. Nathan Eovaldi will get the start for the Rangers on Wednesday as they try to eliminate the Rays and advance to an ALDS matchup with the Orioles. The good news is, Texas' scoring floor has been fairly solid in this particular matchup this season as it has produced at least three runs in seven previous matchups, averaging 4.4 runs per game along the way. I do think the Rays hold up their end of the bargain offensively on Wednesday as well, though, following yesterday's embarrassing shutout loss. Eovaldi was a mess down the stretch in the regular season. He returned from injury at the beginning of September and proceeded to allow 21 earned runs in six starts, spanning 20 1/3 innings of work. The 'over' went 4-1-1 in those six contests. Zach Eflin will counter for Tampa Bay. He showed signs of wearing down in September, lasting just five innings in four of his last five starts, allowing 12 earned runs in 27 innings over that stretch. Neither bullpen impresses me all that much, noting that the two teams have combined to blow 56 saves this season with both getting bitten by the long ball on a consistent basis. Take the over (8*). |
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09-28-23 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 7.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Milwaukee at 4:10 pm et on Thursday. Dakota Hudson has been a fixture in the Cardinals starting rotation since the beginning of August but it's been out of necessity only. He owns a 5.14 FIP and 1.47 WHIP on the season and runs into a Brewers club that has had plenty of success against him. Current Milwaukee hitters are 18-for-54 (.333) off Hudson and the right-hander has recorded an ugly 9:11 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Note that Hudson has been at his worst on the road this season, logging a 7.62 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in five starts, allowing a ridiculous 37 hits in 26 innings while posting a 9:13 strikeout-to-walk ratio. I understand why bettors might be a little spooked after the Brewers sent out their 'B' lineup last night (after clinching the N.L. Central the night previous) but I'm not overly concerned. Corbin Burnes will get the call for Milwaukee. He's alternated good and bad starts going all the way back to the second week of August. After tossing five shutout innings in Miami last time out, you have to figure he's in for some regression here. Note that Burnes hasn't been his dominant self this season, recording a 4.50 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 13 home starts (the 'over' has gone 9-4). Even if we don't see a bullpen implosion, I believe this total is low enough for these two teams to get 'over' it. Take the over (8*). |
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09-27-23 | Padres v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. We've now seen three straight meetings between these two N.L. West rivals stay 'under' the total including the first two contests in this series. I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday, noting you would have to go back to the end of the 2021 season and the beginning of 2022 to find the last time we saw an 'under' streak lasting more than two games in this matchup. Of note, Giants starter Sean Manaea has seen two of his last six trips to the hill result in BOTH teams scoring double-digit runs. The 'under' cashed in his most recent outing against the Dodgers but you would have to go back to last September to find the last time he recorded 'under' results in consecutive starts. The Padres have been a better offensive club on the road this season where they average 5.0 runs per game but they've also allowed 0.4 runs per game above their season average away from home, good for an average total of 9.5 runs. Finally, the possibility of late offensive production is certainly in play with the Padres bullpen having recorded a 5.02 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over the last seven games and the Giants 'pen severely overworked on the campaign, approaching 700 total innings and having posted a 6.18 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take the over (10*). |
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09-24-23 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. While I do like the Mets to avoid the sweep in Sunday's series finale in Philadelphia, I think they're going to have a hard time holding down the Phillies offense. New York starter Jose Butto has only faced the Phillies once previously but made quite an impression, and not in a good way. Current Phillies hitters are a combined 7-for-13 off of him. Alec Bohm is a perfect 3-for-3 with a pair of home runs. Behind Butto is a worn out Mets bullpen that hasn't had a day off since September 7th. It's a similar story for Philadelphia's relief corps as the Phils haven't been idle since September 7th either. Christopher Sanchez will get the start for Philadelphia. Mets hitters have gone 8-for-23 off of him with three extra-base hits. He checks in having allowed seven earned runs over his last two outings, covering a span of just 11 1/3 innings. Take the over (10*). |
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09-22-23 | Royals v. Astros OVER 8 | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. Royals starter Cole Ragans has had a terrific season, at least since joining Kansas City early in the campaign. I do think he'll be in tough on Friday, however, as he faces the Astros for the second time in less than a week, noting that a number of Houston hitters have wore him out, including Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena (a combined 7-for-19 with five walks). As a team, the Astros are averaging an impressive 6.1 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season. With that being, said Houston hasn't exactly been running away from the competition lately. It has lost six of its last nine games including two of three against these same Royals last weekend in Kansas City. Framber Valdez will get the start for the Astros on Friday. He'll be starting on short rest (four days) and that's worth noting as he has posted a 5.81 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in that situation this season (five starts, 27 2/3 innings), compared to a 2.83 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 23 starts on full rest. Behind Valdez is an Astros bullpen that has struggled to the tune of a 4.63 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over the last seven games. Of course, the Royals bullpen has had a tough time all season, recording a collective 5.19 ERA and 1.47 WHIP with 24 saves converted and 23 blown. Noting that Kansas City road games have totalled an average of 8.8 runs while Houston home games have reached 9.2 runs per game on average, we'll confidently back the 'over' on Friday. Take the over (8*). |
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09-20-23 | Tigers v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a low-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Dodgers took the second game of this series by a 3-2 score. I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring contest on Wednesday as Detroit sends Reese Olson to the hill against Bobby Miller in a matchup of rookie starting pitchers. Olson has admittedly pitched well over his last several starts. Keep in mind, three of his last four outings have come at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park in Detroit. He owns a 4.23 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the road this season with the 'over' cashing in four of his six starts. Olson did shut out the White Sox over seven innings in his most recent road start but there were certainly some smoke and mirrors involved as he struck out just one batter in that contest. Bobby Miller has surpassed the 100-inning mark on the season and has shown signs of running out of steam, allowing eight earned runs in 12 2/3 innings over his last two outings. Note that he'll be starting on short rest (four days) here after laboring through his last start in Seattle (three earned runs on six hits and two walks over 5 2/3 innings). The Tigers have proven to be a scrappy bunch this season, entering Wednesday's action just 11 games under .500 (11-7 over their last 18 games). I do think they have a realistic shot at avoiding the series sweep here but the Dodgers are as consistent as it gets offensively, particularly at home and they'll undoubtedly inflict some damage against a rookie starting pitcher, not to mention a Tigers bullpen that hasn't had a day off since September 11th. Take the over (10*). |
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09-20-23 | Guardians v. Royals OVER 9 | 2-6 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. I expect plenty of offensive fireworks as the Guardians and Royals wrap up their season series on Wednesday afternoon in Kansas City. Lucas Giolito will take the ball for Cleveland. He struck out a season-high 12 batters in his most recent outing. The only previous time he recorded double-digit strikeouts this season he followed it up by allowing four earned runs over seven innings in a game that totalled 16 runs back in late June. While Giolito has had success against Kansas City, much of that came earlier in his career. Kansas City will be seeing him for the sixth time since the start of last season having plated 12 earned runs in 27 1/3 innings against him over that stretch. Zack Greinke will counter for the Royals. To say that current Guardians hitters have worn him out would be an understatement. They've gone a combined 47-for-134 (.351) against him including a whopping 14 extra-base hits. Only Jose Ramirez has struggled against the veteran right-hander and a lot of that has had to do with balls simply not falling in as he's struck out just once in 19 at-bats against Greinke (four hits). While the Royals bullpen is in slightly better recent form, as a whole that unit has struggled at home this season, logging a 5.47 ERA and 1.56 WHIP (entering last night's action). The Guardians relief corps hasn't been much better on the road, recording a collective 4.49 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Between the two teams they've blown a ridiculous 51 saves this season (again entering last night's action) while converting 67. Take the over (8*). |
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09-19-23 | Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. While Nathan Eovaldi would like nothing more than to gain an ounce of 'revenge' against his former club after dropping a 10-6 decision in Boston the last time he faced them in July, he brings awful form into this outing. Eovaldi has made three starts since returning from a lengthy stint on the injured list and they haven't gone well (or lasted long). In those three trips to the hill he has posted a lofty 7.73 ERA and 2.43 WHIP. He has faced 37 batters over that stretch, allowing 17 of them to reach base. His counterpart on Tuesday will be Tanner Houck of the Red Sox. He's coming off a masterful six-inning shutout performance against the Yankees last time out. With that said, he's just one start removed from giving up nine earned runs over his previous 10 1/3 innings of work. He's been at his worst at night this season, recording a 5.44 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in nine starts with the 'over' cashing in six of those games. Keep in mind, the Rangers entered this series with their home games having produced an average total of 10.7 runs this season. With neither bullpen in solid form, the potential is there for late inning runs as well. Take the over (10*). |
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09-15-23 | Dodgers v. Mariners OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams got a much needed day off yesterday and I think we're set for an entertaining series in the Pacific Northwest this weekend. The Dodgers will look to bounce back after dropping two of three games at home against the Padres, scoring just one run in their most recent setback on Wednesday. I'm confident we'll see them bust out once again at the plate here as they go up against Mariners starter George Kirby. He's had a fine sophomore campaign by all accounts but has struggled down the stretch, perhaps showing signs of wearing down having logged a career-high 165 2/3 innings. Kirby has allowed at least three earned runs and worked beyond the sixth inning only once over his last five outings. Since striking out nine in a start against the White Sox on August 23rd, he's compiled just nine strikeouts in total over his last three outings covering a span of 13 innings. You would have to go back to August 12th to find the last time he didn't allow a home run in a start. Only three current Dodgers hitters have faced Kirby. Of note, J.D. Martinez is 3-for-6 with a home run off of the right-hander. Dodgers rookie Bobby Miller gave up five earned runs over seven frames against the light-hitting Nationals in his most recent outing. That makes it three out of his last four outings that he's allowed at least four earned runs. He did strike out a season high eight batters in that start but also allowed nine of the 30 batters he faced to reach base. The two bullpens are in fine shape after being idle yesterday but I'm willing to bet on the two offenses bouncing back and we're working with a reasonably low total given the fact that Dodgers road games have averaged a whopping 10.9 total runs this season. Take the over (10*). |
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09-11-23 | Cubs v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Monday. The Cubs are coming off a low-scoring series against the Diamondbacks - a series in which they salvaged Sunday's finale after dropping the first three games. I expect Chicago to have no such trouble at the plate on Monday as it departs the friendly confines of Wrigley Field to open a three-game set at hitter-friendly Coors Field in Denver. Jordan Wicks will get a fourth consecutive turn in the starting rotation for the Cubs. He's pitched well, allowing just four earned runs in 16 2/3 innings of work. With that said, he's not missing many bats, striking out only four over his last two outings after racking up nine strikeouts in his big league debut. Note that the light-hitting Giants actually reached him for nine hits in 6 2/3 innings in his most recent start. Also note that he'll be making his second straight start on short rest (four days). The Rockies should be in a foul mood as they return home off a series sweep at the hands of the Giants (and four straight losses overall). As bad as Colorado has been this season, it has averaged a solid 5.1 runs per game at home. Kyle Freeland will get the start for the Rockies. Current Cubs hitters have quite simply worn him out, going a combined 26-for-68 (.382) off of him with 11 extra-base hits including a pair of home runs. Freeland did pitch well last time out against Arizona but he's just one start removed from allowing six earned runs over 5 2/3 innings against the Braves and now faces a Cubs team that averages an impressive 5.5 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season. The Cubs certainly have the better bullpen in this matchup, but note that they haven't had a day off since August 31st and have been involved in a string of nail-biters, meaning they're approaching 'overworked' territory once again. Colorado's 'pen has logged an ugly 6.14 ERA and 1.67 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (8*). |
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09-08-23 | Mariners v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Tampa Bay at 6:40 pm et on Friday. I think we see a strong bounce-back performance from both offenses in this matchup on Friday after the Mariners secured a 1-0 victory last night. Seattle starter George Kirby has had a fine sophomore season but he appears to be hitting the wall late in the campaign. Note that he's worked a career-high 159 1/3 innings and things won't get any easier as he faces a tough opponent in the Rays on Friday and does so on short rest (four days) for a second straight turn in the rotation. Kirby checks in having allowed 13 earned runs over his last four starts, covering a span of just 18 1/3 innings. Behind Kirby is a Mariners bullpen that has been involved in a ton of nail-biters lately and entered last night's action with a collective 5.48 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over the last seven games. Tampa Bay will send Taj Bradley to the hill. The rookie owns a 4.09 FIP and 1.42 WHIP in just shy of 80 innings of work this season. His command issues have been glaring over his last two starts as he's issued nine walks in just 8 1/3 innings. Averaging less than five innings per start this season, expect plenty of pressure to be on the Rays bullpen once again here, noting it is approaching 600 relief innings on the season. Take the over (10*). |
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09-07-23 | Mariners v. Rays OVER 8 | 1-0 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Tampa Bay at 6:40 pm et on Thursday. The Mariners are favored in this game thanks to the starting pitching matchup. While I certainly respect Luis Castillo, he's tasked with a difficult challenge here as the Rays have produced 26 runs over their last five games and have been incredibly consistent when it comes to manufacturing offense this season, averaging 5.3 runs per game overall, 5.2 runs per game at home and 5.1 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching. Castillo will be starting on short rest (four days) after laboring through five innings against the Mets last time out, allowing five earned runs on eight hits while striking out only two and walking two. Behind Castillo is a Mariners bullpen that is approaching overworked territory over the last week, involved in a number of nail-biters. Seattle relievers have logged a 5.48 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over the last seven games, converting just one save and blowing two. Zack Littell will counter for Tampa Bay. He's in the starting rotation out of necessity only having allowed four earned runs in each of his last three starts. He has yet to work beyond the sixth inning in any of his 10 starts this season. The Mariners continue to see the ball well at the plate, averaging 4.9 runs per game over their last seven contests and 5.0 runs per game on the road this season. The Rays bullpen has posted a 1.98 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over the last seven games but has also blown three saves over that stretch. Take the over (8*). |
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09-06-23 | Brewers v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Pittsburgh at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Pirates bats have gone cold as we've flipped the calendar page over to September and I don't see this as an ideal bounce-back spot as they wrap up a three-game set with the Brewers on Wednesday afternoon at PNC Park. Freddy Peralta will get the start for Milwaukee. He should be happy to be facing the Pirates noting that he owns a 2.45 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 10 career starts against them including two outings this year. Peralta brings excellent form into this start having allowed two earned runs or less in five straight trips to the hill. He's recorded double-digit strikeouts in five of his last 10 outings. Colin Selby will once again be tasked with 'opening' for the Pirates on Wednesday. He got roughed up in his most recent outing against the Cardinals as he was seeing them for a second straight day. Here, I'm confident we'll see him bounce back. While Selby's overall numbers aren't eye-popping, he has recorded 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings and draws a manageable matchup against a Brewers club that entered last night's action averaging just 4.0 runs per game on the road this season. We'll see plenty of the Pirates bullpen in this game but that's not necessarily a bad thing. They have one of the more underrated relief corps' in baseball and check in having posted a 1.91 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night's action). Here at home this season they've converted 22 saves while blowing only seven. The Brewers 'pen is in excellent form as well having recorded a collective 2.94 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over the last seven contests (also entering last night's affair). Take the under (8*). |
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09-05-23 | Blue Jays v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. Monday's series-opener between these two teams found its way 'over' the total thanks to extra innings. I expect a lower-scoring affair on Tuesday as Toronto sends Chris Bassitt to the hill against Ken Waldichuk of the A's. Bassitt is of course familiar with pitching here in Oakland. He spent the majority of his big league career as a member of the A's before going on to greener pastures, so to speak. There is a bit of an art to starting games in this ballpark, where the lofty dimensions tend to be a pitcher's friend. Note that Bassitt comes off one of his best outings of the season as he tossed eight shutout innings against the Nationals last week. He's been at his best under the lights, logging a 2.96 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 18 nighttime starts this season. Ken Waldichuk was originally slated to start Monday's game but had his outing pushed back a day. As he approaches 100 innings of work this season, a little extra rest can certainly help the young left-hander. It's been a trying campaign for Waldichuk but we have seen him shown signs of figuring it out, at least here at home, in recent starts. His last two home outings came against a pair of tough opponents in the Rangers and Orioles. In those two starts he allowed just four earned runs in 11 2/3 innings. While his command wasn't necessarily on point in his most recent start (five walks in four innings against Seattle) he did give up just one earned run (and one hit). Again, positive signs from a pitcher that's still figuring out how to succeed at the big league level. The 'over' has now cashed in each of the Blue Jays last four games and that's notable as they haven't posted a longer 'over' streak since a five-game 'over' run in late April-early May (that was their longest such streak this season). Take the under (8*). |
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09-05-23 | Twins v. Guardians UNDER 8 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
A.L. Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams produced a whopping 26 runs in Monday's series-opener with the Twins doing much of the heavy-lifting in a 20-run outburst. Here, I expect nothing of the sort as Minnesota hands the ball to Sonny Gray against Tanner Bibee of the Guardians. We saw this same starting pitching matchup just last week with Cleveland prevailing by a 5-2 score. Noting that Gray has allowed one earned run or less in three of his last four starts and has worked at least six innings in an incredible 11 of his last 12 outings, I like his chances of keeping the Guardians bats at bay on Tuesday. Keep in mind, Cleveland entered this series averaging just 3.6 runs per game at Progressive Field this season. Bibee has impressed in his rookie campaign. He's been particularly tough at home where he has logged a 2.02 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 10 starts spanning 58 innings of work. While the Twins bats have been hot over the last few games, they entered last night's action averaging just 4.2 runs per game on the road this season. While things didn't go particularly well for either bullpen last night, both relief corps did enter this series in solid form with Twins relievers combining to post a 2.48 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over the last seven games while the Guardians 'pen checked in with a 2.70 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over the same stretch. It's worth noting that you would have to go back 18 meetings - to September of last year - to find the last time these two teams posted consecutive 'over' results in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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09-04-23 | Phillies v. Padres OVER 9 | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and San Diego at 6:40 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring results on Sunday with the Phillies rallying for a 4-2 win in Milwaukee and the Padres blanking the Giants 4-0 here at home. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday as Philadelphia sends Taijuan Walker to the mound against Rich Hill. Both starters have been fortunate to limit the damage, relatively-speaking, over their last few starts respectively. Walker checks in with a 4.49 FIP and 1.31 WHIP on the season. Yet the Phillies have gone an incredible 12-2 in his last 14 outings. Needless to say they've risen to the occasion at the plate with Walker on the hill and here we'll note that they average 5.1 runs per game when facing left-handed starting pitching this season, as will be the case against veteran Rich Hill on Monday. Since joining San Diego prior to the trade deadline, Hill has logged a 7.48 FIP and 1.61 WHIP. He's actually been fortunate to allow 'only' 17 earned runs over his last five starts as 31 of the 83 batters he faced over that stretch managed to reach base. The Padres bullpen has held up well recently but I question how long it can keep it up, noting San Diego hasn't had an off day since August 24th. Meanwhile, the Phillies relief corps has logged a collective 3.91 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over the last seven games, converting three saves but also blowing two over that stretch. Take the over (8*). |
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09-03-23 | Braves v. Dodgers OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
National League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Los Angeles at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. The Braves have taken the first three games of this series and while I do think the Dodgers can rise up and avoid the sweep on Sunday, I think they're in for a battle. Charlie Morton will get the call for the visiting Braves. The Dodgers are certainly familiar with the right-hander. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and David Peralta in particular have worn Morton out over the course of his career, combining to go 29-for-70 with 11 extra-base hits off of him. Morton has pitched exceptionally well over his last four starts but those came against the Mets (twice), Yankees and Rockies. He'll be taking a step up in class here. Behind Morton is a Braves bullpen that hasn't had a day off since August 24th and entered last night's action sporting a collective 5.31 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over the last seven games. Rookie Bobby Miller will counter for the Dodgers. That sets this up as a 'revenge game' of sorts for the Braves after Miller held them to one earned run over five innings in an 8-1 victory in his first career big league start back in May. Miller has hit the rookie wall a little bit lately, allowing eight earned runs over his last two starts and topping out at five strikeouts in his last five outings. While the Los Angeles bullpen had held up well prior to last night's extra innings defeat, it hasn't had a day off since August 21st and is well north of the 525-inning mark on the season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-30-23 | Pirates v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. While I do expect the Royals slumping bats to wake up in Wednesday's series finale against the Pirates, I'm not convinced they can keep Pittsburgh at bay with a fading pitching staff. Last night, Kansas City got another outstanding start from Cole Ragans - one of the few bright spots in its starting rotation - but it wasn't enough as the Pirates plated six runs across the eighth and ninth innings in an eventual 6-3 victory. Angel Zerpa will be tasked with silencing the Buccos on Wednesday. He sports a 6.04 FIP and 1.56 WHIP in 17 1/3 innings pitched this season. The alarming thing is, he isn't even the biggest issue the Royals are facing. Their bullpen has been overworked and has posted an ugly 7.01 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over the last seven games. On the season, Royals relievers have combined to convert only five saves while blowing 13 here at home. Andre Jackson will get another turn in the starting rotation for the Pirates. He's been better since coming over to Pittsburgh from the Dodgers but that's not saying much as he has still allowed five earned runs on nine hits while striking out 11 and walking five in eight innings of work across two starts. My bigger concern here is the Pirates bullpen. Note that Pittsburgh hasn't had a day off since August 17th and its 'pen has worked 34 innings over the last seven games alone, recording a 5.56 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over that stretch. Take the over (10*). |
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08-29-23 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night but I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday. Merrill Kelly will get the start for the visiting Diamondbacks. He turned in one of his best outings of the season last week as he tossed seven shutout innings of one-hit ball, striking out 12 against the Reds. Note that Kelly has worked at least six innings in four of his last five starts. On the season, he's lowered his FIP to 3.92 and his WHIP to 1.13. Clayton Kershaw will counter for Los Angeles. His last start was cut short by rain in Cleveland. You would have to go back 10 starts to find the last time he allowed more than two earned runs. The veteran left-hander owns a terrific 3.76 FIP and 1.02 WHIP on the campaign. While the D'Backs bullpen has struggled, I do think Kelly can eat enough innings that they're not a major factor in this one. Meanwhile, the Dodgers 'pen entered last night's action sporting a collective 2.95 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take the under (10*). |
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08-27-23 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Chicago at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. The Cubs took the third game of this series by a 10-6 score last night. I look for a similarly high-scoring affair on Sunday afternoon. Javier Assad will take the ball for Chicago. He has been anything but dominant this season, logging a 4.67 FIP and 1.25 WHIP, which is about on par for his career numbers, yet the Cubs have managed to win each of his last four starts. Note that while only four current Pirates hitters have faced Assad before, they've gone a combined 3-for-6 with both Connor Joe and Jack Suwinski homering off of the right-hander. Bailey Falter will counter for Pittsburgh. He's been quietly effective since returning to the starting rotation earlier this month with the Pirates winning two of his three starts. With that being said, he still owns a 5.03 FIP and 1.40 WHIP this season and will be up against a Cubs team that averages 5.5 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season. Current Cubs hitters are a combined 9-for-21 against Falter with four extra base hits and only four strikeouts. Neither bullpen has been all that effective lately with the Pirates in particular being overworked, logging a collective 38 2/3 innings over the last seven games. Also note that neither team has had a day off since August 17th, putting even more pressure on the bullpens at this late stage of the season. Take the over (10*). |
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08-21-23 | Royals v. A's OVER 8 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams struggled at the plate over the weekend and that wasn't unexpected as the Royals faced the Cubs and the A's went against the Orioles, two teams that boast playoff-caliber pitching staffs. I expect a different story to unfold on Monday. The Royals will give the start to Tucker Davidson. He has appeared in six games this season, working just 6 1/3 innings. In that limited action, Davidson allowed 11-of-28 batters he faced to reach base, logging a 4.85 FIP and 1.42 WHIP. For his career, Davidson has posted a 4.97 FIP and 1.64 WHIP. The Royals bullpen entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 1.61 WHIP over the last seven games, logging north of 30 innings over that stretch. A's starter Paul Blackburn has posted a 3.50 FIP and 1.50 WHIP in 72 2/3 innings of work this season. Note that he'll be starting on short rest (four days) for a second straight turn in the rotation. Behind Blackburn is an A's bullpen that has recorded a collective 5.96 ERA and 2.06 WHIP over the last seven contests (entering yesterday's action). Keep in mind, these two teams met for a three-game series in Kansas City earlier this year and combined to score 35 runs. Take the over (8*). |
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08-19-23 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 8 | 8-1 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and New York at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair to open this series last night with 11 total runs on the board. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday as Boston sends Kutter Crawford to the hill against Gerrit Cole of the Yankees. Crawford has labored through his last couple of starts but it hasn't been all bad. He did allow just five of the 19 batters he faced reach base in a 6-3 win over the Tigers last time out. Note that Crawford has posted a 2.18 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in eight road starts this season. In a similar vein, he has logged a 2.50 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in six daytime outings. Gerrit Cole certainly hasn't been to blame for the Yankees recent struggles. He has worked at least six innings in eight straight starts, allowing two earned runs or less in six of those appearances. Cole owns a 2.87 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 14 home starts this season and a 2.80 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 13 daytime outings. Both bullpens are serviceable here. Incredibly, the Red Sox relief corps has converted 21 saves while blowing only two on the road this season. Take the under (8*). |
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08-17-23 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. We saw this same pitching matchup last Saturday in Arizona as Zac Gallen stymied the Padres bats over six innings in a 3-0 Diamondbacks victory. I expect a different story to unfold in Thursday's rematch. Gallen has now held the Padres scoreless over his last two starts against them, covering a span of 13 innings. Both of those starts came in Arizona, however. The last time he faced them at Petco Park, back in early April, he was tagged for five runs (four of them earned) over six innings of work. A number of current Padres hitters have had success against Gallen. Xander Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. have all homered off of him in the past (among others). The trio of Bogaerts, Machado and Tatis Jr. have gone a combined 14-of-43 (.326) with eight extra-base hits off of Gallen. It's a similar story with Padres veteran left-hander Rich Hill against the D'Backs. Current Arizona hitters have gone a combined 17-of-56 (.304) with eight extra-base hits off of Hill. In two starts since joining San Diego, Hill has logged an awful 8.79 FIP and 2.05 WHIP in 6 1/3 innings of work. That's obviously a very small sample size but on the season, Hill owns a less than impressive 4.66 FIP and 1.51 WHIP as well. Entering yesterday's action, the two bullpens had been struggling with the D'Backs relief corps logging a collective 5.16 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over the last seven games and the Padres 'pen posting a 5.70 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the same stretch. In division games this season, the San Diego bullpen has recorded a 5.26 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with only 10 saves converted and nine blown. Take the over (10*). |
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08-15-23 | Orioles v. Padres OVER 8 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring affair to open this series last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday. Jack Flaherty will take the ball for the visiting Orioles. He's been effective but certainly not dominant since joining the Orioles at the trade deadline. On the season, Flaherty owns a rather disappointing 4.12 FIP and 1.55 WHIP. Of the 534 batters he has faced this season, 195 have reached base - that's a nearly 37% clip and simply isn't good enough. His counterpart on Tuesday will be Michael Wacha, who makes his first big league start since early July following a stint on the I.L. Wacha did made one brief minor league appearance, allowing 5-of-11 batters to reach base in two innings of work. There's no denying Wacha has exceeded expectations when he's been healthy this season but he'll be facing an Orioles club that averages north of five runs per game on the road this season on Tuesday. Behind Wacha is a sagging Padres bullpen that entered this series having logged a collective 5.83 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over the last seven games. While I do expect the Padres bats to get to Flaherty, I'm not convinced San Diego's pitching staff can keep the O's bats at bay. Take the over (8*). |
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08-14-23 | Yankees v. Braves UNDER 9 | Top | 3-11 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring contests on Sunday, both in losing efforts. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the Yankees send Clarke Schmidt to the hill against Max Fried of the Braves. Schmidt got hit hard in April but has since turned things around, allowing three earned runs or less in an incredible 14 straight starts. He has lowered his FIP to 4.28 and his WHIP to 1.29 over that stretch. Remember, Schmidt worked 57 2/3 innings for the Yanks last season, posting a 3.60 FIP and 1.20 WHIP so we know what he's capable of. Max Fried was terrific in his first outing back from the I.L. but proceeded to struggle last time out. His overall numbers this season are incredible as he has logged a 2.60 FIP and 1.06 WHIP, albeit in just 36 innings of work. Fried finished second in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season, recording a 2.70 FIP and 1.01 WHIP. The Yankees bullpen will be looking to bounce back after imploding in yesterday's wild 8-7 defeat. Entering that contest, New York's relief corps had posted a collective 3.13 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 14 saves converted and only five blown on the road this season. Atlanta's 'pen entered last night's action sporting a collective 3.52 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with 37 saves converted and 18 blown this season. While Atlanta's series finale against the Mets did find its way 'over' the total last night, we didn't see consecutive 'over' results in that four-game series (on the heels of a six-game 'over' streak). Meanwhile, the Yankees have recorded consecutive 'over' results just once since July 31st. Take the under (10*). |
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08-12-23 | Brewers v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Chicago at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. Neither starter was effective in last night's 7-6 Brewers extra innings victory to open this series. I expect a different story to unfold in Saturday's rematch. Brandon Woodruff will get the start for Milwaukee. He's made just three starts due to injury issues this season but has pitched exceptionally well when he's been healthy, logging a 3.63 FIP and 0.86 WHIP while allowing only 14-of-60 batters he's face to reach base in 16 1/3 innings of work. Meanwhile, White Sox rookie Jesse Scholtens has had mixed results with a 4.52 FIP and 1.22 WHIP. Since re-joining the Chicago rotation earlier this month he has been sharp, however, allowing just three earned runs on nine hits while striking out 12 and walking only two in 12 innings of work. Both bullpens have been solid lately with the Brewers relief corps posting a collective 3.49 ERA over the last seven games and the White Sox 'pen logging a 3.11 ERA over the same stretch. Take the under (8*). |
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08-11-23 | Brewers v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results in their most recent contests. In the White Sox case, they're coming off a nine-run outburst against the Yankees. To put things in perspective, they had plated just 11 runs combined over their previous three contests. Here, they'll face Brewers starter Corbin Burnes. He's made seven starts since the beginning of July, working at least six innings in all seven of those contests while allowing 2, 2, 0, 0, 2, 2 and 2 earned runs. His counterpart on Friday will be Michael Kopech. He hasn't been nearly as steady as Burnes but will have the benefit of facing a Brewers lineup that I feel ranks among the weakest in baseball and averages just 4.1 runs per game on the road this season. Behind Kopech is a White Sox bullpen that has actually turned things around lately, logging a collective 3.13 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over the last seven games. On that note, the Brewers 'pen has posted a 3.33 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the same stretch and has converted 21 saves while blowing only nine on the road this season. Take the under (10*). |
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08-07-23 | Rangers v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Rangers are coming off a shutout victory against the Marlins yesterday as they wrapped up a series sweep in the process. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 8-0 with the Rangers coming off a shutout win this season with those contests totalling an average of 15.3 runs. Dane Dunning will take the ball for Texas on Monday. He's coming off a masterful performance against the White Sox, allowing just one earned run while striking out 11 over 7 2/3 innings. The issue I see here is that Dunning will be making his second straight start on short rest (four days). His strikeouts have actually been down this year as he's averaging just 6.2 per nine innings and has logged a rather pedestrian 4.13 FIP. In his three previous starts here in Oakland, the A's have plated 6, 3 and 6 runs. Ken Waldichuk will get another turn in the starting rotation for Oakland. He's quite simply been one of the worst starters in baseball this season, posting a 5.64 FIP and 1.74 WHIP in 88 1/3 innings of work. The Rangers have seen him twice since the start of last season, plating eight earned runs in 10 innings. While Texas' bullpen has been sharp lately, it still checks in having converted only seven saves while blowing nine on the road this season, recording a collective 4.66 ERA and 1.32 WHIP along the way. Meanwhile, the A's relief corps has posted an inflated 6.12 ERA and 1.72 WHIP over the last seven games and have converted only eight saves while blowing 10 at home this season (entering yesterday's contest). Take the over (10*). |
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08-06-23 | White Sox v. Guardians UNDER 9 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Cleveland at 12:05 pm et on Sunday. We saw a wild, fight-filled, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. Jesse Scholtens will get his fourth start for the White Sox this season. His last outing was his best one by far as he allowed just one earned run over six innings in a 2-0 loss in Texas. While Scholtens' 4.61 FIP leaves a lot to be desired, he has logged a respectable 1.23 WHIP in 44 big league innings this season, allowing just 55-of-179 batters he has faced to reach base. Xzavion Curry has shifted from a bullpen role to a starting one for the Guardians, albeit as more of an 'opener' than anything else. He didn't have his best stuff but still limited these same White Sox to only one earned run over three innings in a 3-0 defeat last week. Similar to Scholtens, he owns a less than impressive 4.34 FIP but a solid 1.19 WHIP in 59 innings of work this season. As far as the two bullpens go, both have been a mixed-bag this season but we are talking about two relatively fresh relief corps having worked less than 400 total innings. Take the under (8*). |
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08-04-23 | Braves v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | 8-0 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Friday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair as the Braves and Cubs kick off their three-game series at Wrigley Field on Friday afternoon. Max Fried will make his long-awaited return to the Braves starting rotation after an extended stint on the I.L. He got in four minor league outings and something seemed to be amiss as he allowed 18-of-48 batters he faced to reach base (including two home runs), recording a 3.75 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 12 innings of work. We know Fried is an elite starting pitcher, I'm just not sure this is an ideal matchup to ease back in to, noting the Cubs bats have been red hot, plating 46 runs over their last four games alone. The Braves are coming off a 12-run explosion of their own yesterday and should feast on Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks. The veteran right-hander has pitched reasonably well lately and owns a 3.96 FIP and 1.06 WHIP on the season. Note, however, the Braves have torched him for 7, 7 and 6 earned runs in his three starts against them since the start of 2021. The Braves bullpen has been a mess lately, logging a collective ERA approaching six over the last seven games. Meanwhile, Chicago's relief corps has been a mixed-bag this season, converting just 10 saves while blowing five and recording a collective ERA around four at home. Take the over (8*). |
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08-03-23 | A's v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. We've seen a pair of relatively high-scoring games to open this series with the Dodgers doing most of the heavy lifting at the plate. Here, I expect the A's bats to get in on the action as well. J.P. Sears will get the start for Oakland. While he does own an impressive 1.05 WHIP this season, his FIP sits at a disappointing 5.19. Expect the Dodgers to feast on the left-hander, noting that he is allowing 1.9 home runs per nine innings this season. Over his last three starts alone, Sears has been tagged for six long balls. Dodgers starter Julio Urias has been in the mix for the N.L. Cy Young Award in each of the last two seasons but certainly isn't in the conversation this year. Urias checks in sporting a 4.78 FIP and 1.21 WHIP. Since tossing six shutout innings against the Mets in New York back on July 14th, Urias has made two starts, yielding 16 hits and 11 earned runs in just 11 innings of work. While the A's may appear to be a manageable opponent, I'm not ready to put my faith in Urias or a Dodgers bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.94 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven games. Speaking of bullpens, the A's relief corps entered Wednesday having logged a 6.08 ERA and 1.65 WHIP on the road this season. Take the over (8*). |
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08-02-23 | Padres v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | 11-1 | Push | 0 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. We're working with a typically high posted total in the finale of this three-game series on Wednesday afternoon. I believe it will prove too high. Padres starter Joe Musgrove is as consistent as they come having posted a 3.54 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 17 starts covering 97 1/3 innings this season. He struggled in a couple of starts against the Rockies last season but will facing a much different looking lineup this time around. Note that this will be his first outing against Colorado this year and he still owns a career 3.06 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in eight previous starts in this matchup. Kyle Freeland will counter for the Rockies. He should be happy to be facing the Padres, noting that he's held them to just one earned run in 11 innings in two previous starts against them this season. Freeland has been a much better pitcher in the daytime this year, logging a 3.40 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in nine afternoon outings. Of course, the Rockies bullpen is always a concern but the Padres have excelled at the back-end of games lately, with their 'pen sporting a collective 2.01 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over the last seven contests (entering last night's game). Take the under (8*). |
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07-31-23 | Red Sox v. Mariners OVER 8 | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Red Sox have seen each of their last six games stay 'under' the total while the Mariners are coming off a three-game series in Arizona in which all three contests played to the 'under' as well. I look for a different story to unfold on Monday. Nick Pivetta will get his first start since May for Boston. The veteran right-hander has proven effective pitching in long relief and owns a 4.14 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 81 innings of work this season. With that said, I do think there's regression on the way noting that he has held opposing hitters to just 6.8 hits per nine innings this season. That's a career-low by a considerable margin. You would have to go back to 2020 to find the last time he allowed fewer than 8.0 hits per nine innings. George Kirby will counter for Seattle. He has allowed at least five earned runs in four of his last 11 starts and that's notable as he had done so just once over his previous 12 outings. Perhaps we're seeing signs of a young starter hitting the wall as he approaches his career high in innings pitched and we have yet to flip the calendar page over to August. Kirby did get the better of the Red Sox in a 10-1 Mariners victory at Fenway Park earlier this season. However, Boston has plated nine earned runs in 16 2/3 innings in three looks at Kirby since the start of last season. His three career starts against Boston have totalled 18, 13 and 12 runs. The Red Sox bullpen has been taxed lately and yesterday's extra innings affair in San Francisco didn't help matters. The Mariners relief corps enters this series in much better shape but I'm confident the Boston bats can do enough damage against Kirby to help this total along. Take the over (8*). |
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07-29-23 | Mariners v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Arizona at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams last night, despite a high-scoring start as the Mariners jumped ahead 4-0 in the first frame and cruised to a 5-2 victory. I think we'll see the Diamondbacks bounce back and help the total along on Saturday as they send Brandon Pfaadt to the hill against Bryan Woo. Pfaadt is a highly-touted prospect and has enjoyed some success at the minor league level. That hasn't translated to success in the majors, however, as he checks in sporting a 7.64 FIP and 1.64 WHIP in seven starts spanning 31 2/3 innings. He hasn't been able to keep the ball in the yard, allowing a whopping 3.4 home runs per nine innings. It's been a similar story for Mariners starter Bryan Woo lately. He's been tagged for four home runs in his last two outings. It seems the book may be out on Woo following a solid stretch as he has allowed 10 earned runs on 12 hits and four walks over his last two starts covering a span of 9 1/3 innings. Neither bullpen has been all that impressive. In the case of the D'Backs, their 'pen has logged an 8.37 ERA and 1.90 WHIP over the last seven games and has converted just 10 saves while blowing eight at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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07-27-23 | Guardians v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring affairs on Wednesday, albeit with much different outcomes as the Guardians defeated the Royals 8-3 while the White Sox blew a big lead in a 10-7 loss to the Cubs. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest as Cleveland sends impressive rookie Tanner Bibee to the hill against Chicago's ace Dylan Cease. Bibee checks in sporting a 3.52 FIP and 1.19 WHIP on the season, allowing just 103-of-334 batters he has faced to reach base. After a bit of a rocky start to his big league career he has been baffling opposing hitters lately, giving up just 17 hits and one home run over his last five starts spanning 29 2/3 innings of work. Dylan Cease has been similarly effectively lately. He has held his last two opponents to just two earned runs on six hits over 11 innings. Over his last nine outings he has allowed only 43 hits and four home runs in 51 innings of work. Going back to 2021, Cease has been incredibly consistent recording FIP's of 3.41, 3.10 and 3.63 so far in 2023. Neither bullpen has been all that reliable lately, or this season for that matter. With that being said, both of tonight's starters have shown the ability to work effectively deep into ball games (Bibee has lasted at least into the sixth inning in four of his last five starts and Cease has done so in eight of his last nine outings), somewhat mitigating that concern. Take the under (10*). |
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07-27-23 | Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | 10-3 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are scoring runs in bunches right now but I look for tonight's starting pitching matchup to help reverse that trend. Justin Steele will get the start for the visiting Cubs. He continues to impress having recorded a 2.97 FIP and 1.11 WHIP this season including a 2.93 ERA and 1.02 WHIP on the road. Familiarity hasn't led to success for the Cards bats against the left-hander as he has limited St. Louis to six earned runs over 18 1/3 innings in three outings in this matchup this season. Behind Steele is a Cubs bullpen that did the job again last night after entering that game sporting a collective 3.29 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over the last seven contests. Miles Mikolas will counter for the Cardinals. If there's been one constant in his big league career, it has been his success against the Cubs bats here at home. In eight previous outings against Chicago in St. Louis, Mikolas has allowed just eight earned runs in 50 innings of work. While there have been a few rough patches along the way, Mikolas checks in with a respectable 3.89 FIP and 1.31 WHIP on the campaign. The less said about the Cardinals bullpen the better but I do think this total has been set high enough that any late inning pitching concerns from St. Louis are manageable. Take the under (8*). |
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07-26-23 | Braves v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. Off a relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams last night (eight total runs), we'll call for a higher-scoring contest in Wednesday's rematch at Fenway Park. Note that the 'under' has now cashed in each of Atlanta's last three games. We haven't see the Braves post a four-game 'under' streak since May 30th to June 3rd. In a similar vein, the Red Sox are coming off consecutive 'under' results. We haven't seen three straight games involving Boston stay 'under' the total since June 28th to 30th. The 'under' has also cashed in two straight meetings in this series - the first time that's occurred over the last 11 matchups going back to 2021. The Braves bats are in line for a bounce-back performance here as they see Red Sox starter Brayan Bello for the second time this season. Also note that Boston's bullpen has been severely overworked lately, logging a collective 41 innings over the last seven games. The Red Sox will face a tough test at the plate against Braves ace Spencer Strider but I'm confident they can at least do enough to help this total along, noting that they check in averaging 5.7 runs per game at home this season and have plated at least four runs in 14 of their last 15 contests overall. Take the over (8*). |
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07-22-23 | Dodgers v. Rangers UNDER 9 | 16-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Texas at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday afternoon. Rookie Bobby Miller has impressed in limited action for the Dodgers this season, posting a 3.59 FIP and 1.19 WHIP in 48 2/3 innings of work. While the Dodgers did drop his most recent start by a 2-1 score against the Mets in New York, he allowed just one earned run over 4 2/3 innings. In fact, in four road appearances this season, Miller owns a 2.11 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Dane Dunning will counter for Texas. He is having a renaissance season of sorts, recording a 3.90 FIP and 1.11 WHIP in 21 appearances spanning 99 innings. Dunning didn't fare well in his lone previous start against the Dodgers but that came back in 2021, when he logged a 1.44 WHIP in 117 2/3 innings. The two bullpens in this matchup have been terrific lately. Entering last night's action the Dodgers 'pen had recorded a collective 2.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over the last seven games while the Rangers relief corps had logged a 3.57 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (8*). |
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07-21-23 | Giants v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Friday. While the Giants have seen their last two games stay 'under' the total following an 11-10 slugfest in Cincinnati on Tuesday, the Nationals check in riding a six-game 'over' streak. I expect the latter to continue as San Francisco sends Alex Wood to the hill against Jake Irvin of the Nationals on Friday. Take a look up and down the Nats' lineup right now and you'll see a pretty dangerous group of hitters. I was of the opinion that Washington had a lineup built for Nationals Park entering this season but it hasn't worked out that way as the Nats' have actually produced far more offense on the road. With that being said, they do average 4.7 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching and they'll have the opportunity to face soft-tossing southpaw Alex Wood on Friday. Wood checks in sporting a 4.78 FIP and 1.53 WHIP on the season, allowing a whopping 88-of-243 batters he has faced to reach base. He's had a tough time settling in due to injuries and here will be starting on just four days' rest after making his first start since June last Sunday. Wood isn't fooling many opposing hitters this season and has topped out at four strikeouts over his last four starts. Jake Irvin remains in the Nats' starting rotation out of necessity only as he has logged a 5.25 FIP and 1.49 WHIP in 13 starts this season. Like Wood, Irvin has put far too many men on base, allowing 98-of-276 batters he has faced aboard. Perhaps a bigger issue for Washington right now is its sagging bullpen. Nationals relievers have combined to record an 11.92 ERA and 2.18 WHIP over the last seven games and are down a key arm in closer Hunter Harvey. While the Giants 'pen has held up well lately, it hasn't had a day off since the All-Star break and certainly falls in the 'overworked' category having logged well north of 400 innings collectively this season. Take the over (10*). |
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07-20-23 | Twins v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Seattle at 3:40 pm et on Thursday. The first three games in this series have all gone 'over' the total with a two-run home run in the ninth inning doing the trick for the Twins last night. I expect a different story to unfold in Thursday's series-finale as Minnesota sends Pablo Lopez to the hill against George Kirby of the Mariners. Lopez is quietly having an All-Star season for the Twins, logging a 3.37 FIP and 1.13 WHIP. He did get rocked by the A's in his most recent outing. Strange things can happen when pitchers make their first start following the All-Star break and I'm willing to give Lopez a mulligan for that poor showing. George Kirby hasn't suffered any sort of sophomore slump this season, recording a 3.49 FIP and 1.07 WHIP. Like Lopez, Kirby was also an American League All-Star selection. As I've noted previously, these two bullpens are well-positioned down the stretch with both only recently having eclipsed the 300-inning mark. Take the under (8*). |
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07-19-23 | Twins v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen consecutive high-scoring games between these two teams to open this series but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Kenta Maeda will take the ball for the visiting Twins. While his overall numbers aren't anything special this season, he has been reasonably effective since returning from the I.L. in June, allowing six earned runs on only 15 hits over 20 innings of work. Note that he has certainly fared better on the road compared to at home this season, recording a 3.15 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in five starts away from home. Mariners ace Luis Castillo wasn't particularly sharp last time out against the Tigers but is just one start removed from allowing just one unearned run over seven innings in a tough assignment in Houston. Castillo has lived up to billing this season, logging a 3.93 FIP and 1.03 WHIP, recording a 2.78 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 12 home outings. The two bullpens remain well-positioned to succeed down the stretch with the Twins 'pen entering last night's action having logged just 312 1/3 innings collectively while the Mariners relief corps had worked only 307 2/3 innings. Seattle's 'pen did get roughed up last night but it's hard to fault a group that had recorded a collective 2.45 ERA and 0.77 WHIP over the previous seven games. Minnesota's relief corps entered last night's game sporting a 3.42 ERA and 1.11 WHIP on the road this season. Take the under (8*). |
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07-19-23 | Yankees v. Angels OVER 8.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen a pair of relatively low-scoring contests to open this series but I anticipate a much higher-scoring affair on Wednesday. The Angels are playing like a team that has nothing to lose right now, producing 5, 5, 13, 8, 4 and 5 runs over their last six games. They'll face a tough opponent in Yankees starter Carlos Rodon on Wednesday. While I do expect continued improvement from Rodon, he has given up six earned runs in 10 1/3 innings in his first two starts since returning from the I.L. On the flip side, I'm confident the Yankees bats will wake up against the Angels pitching staff here. Chase Silseth will get the start for Los Angeles. His big league returns have not been good since breaking in with the Halos last year. In 47 1/3 career innings, Silseth has recorded a 5.93 FIP and 1.59 WHIP. Behind him is an overworked Angels bullpen that has logged a collective 8.40 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in 30 innings over the last seven games. Speaking of struggling bullpens, the Yankees relief corps has posted a 6.43 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (8*). |
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07-18-23 | Twins v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Mariners took the series-opener by a 7-6 score. I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday as Minnesota hands the ball to Bailey Ober against impressive rookie Bryan Woo of the Mariners. Ober has given up just one earned run over 13 innings in his last two starts with those two contests totalling just one and four runs. He owns a terrific 3.39 FIP and 0.97 WHIP at the big league level this season, picking up right where he left off following an early stint in the minors where he baffled opposing hitters. Ober has allowed just 83 of the 321 batters he has faced to reach base. Bryan Woo has been similarly difficult to reach base against, albeit with a smaller sample size to consider. He has allowed only 37-of-141 batters to reach base, logging a 3.08 FIP and 1.07 WHIP in 34 2/3 innings of work. I like the way both bullpens are set up, noting that Twins relievers have worked a very reasonable 310 innings combined this season, posting a collective 3.63 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while the Mariners 'pen has logged only 303 2/3 innings while recording a 3.62 ERA and 1.27 WHIP (all numbers entering last night's action). Of course, the All-Star break isn't far in the rear-view mirror, helping both relief corps check in reasonably fresh this week. Take the under (10*). |
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07-15-23 | Red Sox v. Cubs UNDER 8 | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Chicago at 2:20 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams last night as Boston rolled to an 8-3 victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday as the Red Sox send James Paxton to the hill against Marcus Stroman of the Cubs. Paxton is having a renaissance year of sorts, logging a 3.66 FIP and 0.98 WHIP in 10 starts spanning 56 innings of work (he had pitched just 1 1/3 innings over the last two seasons combined). Behind Paxton is a Red Sox bullpen that certainly needed the break as it had worked north of 40 innings collectively over the previous seven games. Still, the Red Sox 'pen owns a 3.80 ERA and 1.22 WHIP on the road this season. Marcus Stroman struggled in his last few starts prior to the break but has still posted a 3.41 FIP and 1.09 WHIP on the campaign. I look for him to bounce back here noting that he has recorded a terrific 2.91 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at home this season. The Cubs bullpen had logged a collective 3.51 ERA and 1.27 WHIP at home this season entering last night's action. Take the under (10*). |
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07-14-23 | Padres v. Phillies UNDER 9.5 | 8-3 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Friday. In any other year, this would appear to be a starting pitching mismatch as Yu Darvish has been a Cy Young Award contender four times previously in his career while Christopher Sanchez is a relative unknown for the Phillies. The shoe has been on the other foot this season, however, as Darvish has struggled to the tune of a 4.03 FIP and 1.27 WHIP. I do think he can use the second half of the season of a restart of sorts. He should be happy to see the Phillies as he owns a career 2.35 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in nine career starts against them. Sanchez has been terrific in five starts this season, logging a 3.56 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while allowing just 26-of-99 batters he has faced to reach base. Behind Sanchez is a Phillies bullpen that has been elite this season, posting a collective 3.75 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with 25 saves converted and only eight blown. The Padres bullpen hasn't been quite on the same level and struggled leading into the break. I do think that had something to do with their relief corps being overworked and the All-Star break should have served them well in that regard. Take the under (8*). |
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07-08-23 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these division rivals last night but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday afternoon in San Francisco. Connor Seabold will inexplicably get another turn in the Rockies starting rotation. He enters this start sporting a 5.98 FIP and 1.47 WHIP in 66 2/3 innings of work this season. Seabold remains in the Rockies rotation out of necessity only and he's not likely to get a lot of support from the Colorado bullpen, noting that it has been as overworked as any relief corps in baseball this season, logging a collective 359 2/3 innings while posting a 4.91 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Over the last seven games those numbers rise to 6.67 and 1.59, respectively. Ryan Walker will get the start in an 'opener' role for the Giants. He's fared well in that role this season. But again, we're only talking about a cameo appearance. Like the Rockies relief corps, the Giants 'pen has also been overworked this season, logging north of 370 collective innings. San Francisco's relievers have held up reasonably well, but not so much lately as they've recorded a collective 5.58 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over the last seven games. The Giants offense in particular has struggled lately but I see this as an ideal bounce-back spot for both lineups on what should be a pleasant afternoon for hitters on Saturday. Take the over (10*). |
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07-07-23 | Cubs v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring affairs on Thursday but I look for a different story to unfold as they open a three-game Interleague series on Friday in the Bronx. Jameson Taillon will take the ball for the visiting Cubs. He's had a miserable season for the most part but there's been some reason for encouragement over his last couple of outings. In those two starts, he struck out 14 while walking only one in 10 innings of work (he had struck out only 13 batters combined over his previous four outings). He continues to be bitten by the long ball far too often but perhaps a return to his old stomping ground at Yankee Stadium can help his cause. Note that Taillon logged a 3.94 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while making the majority of his starts in the Bronx as a member of the Yankees last season. He's capable of stepping up at times on the road, noting that he held the Dodgers to five scoreless innings in April and the Padres to one run over 5 2/3 innings in June, with both of those starts coming away from home. New York isn't exactly tearing the cover off the ball right now and continues to strike out way too much while not walking nearly enough. Carlos Rodon will get his first start of the season for the Yankees following a lengthy stint on the injured list. Rodon looked no worse for wear in three minor league outings, posting a 0.84 ERA and 0.56 WHIP in 10 2/3 innings of work, allowing only 6-of-38 batters he faced to reach base. You have to figure he's happy to be facing the Cubs in his first start back in the majors, noting that he's gone against them three times since the start of the 2021 season, allowing just two earned runs on seven hits over 17 1/3 innings of work (striking out 31 and walking only three). While the Yankees bullpen has been overworked this season, they do boast plenty of depth in that department and have held up reasonably well, logging a 3.06 ERA and 1.21 WHIP here at home (entering last night's action). Yankees relievers have converted 25 saves while blowing only 11. Chicago's 'pen has struggled for the most part with the exception of a few key arms. Interestingly, Cubs relievers seem better suited to 'pitching from behind' (trailing in games) rather than holding down leads. On a positive note, the Chicago relief corps entered yesterday's action having yet to eclipse the 300-inning mark this season. Take the under (8*). |
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07-05-23 | Mets v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between the Mets and Diamondbacks yesterday afternoon but I expect a different story to unfold in Game 2 of this series on Wednesday. Kodai Senga will take the ball for the visiting Mets. He owns a 4.02 FIP and 1.35 WHIP this season. Command has certainly been an issue as he has handed out 5.1 walks per nine innings. With that said, he's been able to limit the damage by allowing just 7.1 hits and 1.0 home run per nine innings, while striking out an average of 11.1 batters per nine innings. The D'Backs don't boast an overly patient lineup and I expect Senga to find some success as he faces them for the first time in his career. Tommy Henry will counter for Arizona. He got off to a rocky start this season but has since settled down, holding seven of his last 10 opponents to two earned runs or less. Henry has worked at least into the sixth inning in eight of his last 11 outings. Behind Henry is a D'Backs bullpen that entered yesterday's game in terrific position having worked just 20 innings over the last seven games, logging a 2.25 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. While the Mets 'pen entered this series sporting a collective ERA north of four, it owns a respectable 1.27 WHIP with 20 saves converted and only 11 blown. Take the under (8*). |
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07-04-23 | Pirates v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
N.L. Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Los Angeles at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair to open this series last night as the Dodgers prevailed by a 5-2 score. I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday as the Pirates send Luis Ortiz against impressive Dodgers rookie Emmet Sheehan. Ortiz had a cup of coffee at the big league level last season and pitched relatively well. In extended work this year, that hasn't been the case as he has logged a 5.68 FIP and 1.65 WHIP in 50 1/3 innings. While Ortiz is just one start removed from allowing only one earned run against the Marlins, performances like that have been few and far between. In his most recent outing, Ortiz labored through 4 2/3 innings against the Padres, allowing four earned runs on six hits, including two home runs, and three walks. He's giving up a whopping 10.4 hits and 4.5 walks per nine innings this season and that's a recipe for disaster against a loaded Dodgers lineup. To illustrate just how badly Ortiz has struggled, 84 of the 227 batters he has faced have managed to reach base. Behind Ortiz is a Pirates bullpen that has been effective lately but still owns a less than impressive 4.44 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). Emmet Sheehan will get his fourth career big league start for the Dodgers. Of note, he'll be starting on short rest (four days) for the first time on Tuesday. Sheehan has pitched well but has also had some good fortune, allowing just 5.3 hits per nine innings in a small sample size of just 17 innings. He wasn't particularly sharp in his most recent start in Colorado but his saving grace was the fact that he didn't issue a single walk (he allowed seven hits and three earned runs while striking out only five over five innings). Keep in mind, even at the Double-A level earlier this season, Sheehan issued an average of 3.9 walks per nine innings and he had handed out four free passes in his first 12 innings of work with the Dodgers this year. Los Angeles' bullpen has been overworked this season, logging a collective 318 2/3 innings (entering last night's contest). Dodgers relievers entered this series having posted a 3.94 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with only nine saves converted and six blown at home this season. Take the over (10*). |
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07-03-23 | Braves v. Guardians UNDER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results on Sunday but I look for a different story to unfold as they open an Interleague series in Cleveland on Monday. Bryce Elder will get the start for the visiting Braves. He went through a bit of a rough stretch in early June but has since figured it out again, allowing just three earned runs in 19 innings of work over his last three outings. The 'under' has incredibly cashed in 10 of his last 11 trips to the hill. Elder enters this start sporting a 3.79 FIP and 1.13 WHIP on the season which is right in line with his career big league numbers. Rookie Gavin Williams will counter for Cleveland. He apparently shook off the nerves we saw in his first big league outing as he bounced back to hold the Royals to just one hit over seven shutout innings last time out. While we are talking about a small sample size, he has allowed just 10-of-46 batters he has faced to reach base. Keep in mind, Williams got the call to the bigs after logging a 2.39 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 60 1/3 innings spread across Double and Triple-A earlier this season. Both bullpens are in fairly good shape at this stage of the season with neither having eclipsed the 300-inning mark. The Braves 'pen has been lights out lately, sporting a collective 1.23 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over the last seven games. While the Guardians relief corps had a bit of a shaky weekend in Chicago, it does own a stellar 2.24 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 13 saves converted and only four blown here at home this season. Take the under (10*). |
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07-01-23 | Rays v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 3-8 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Seattle at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair as the Rays rallied for a 15-4 victory in the opener of this series last night. I expect a much different story to unfold on Saturday as we have a premier starting pitching matchup between Tyler Glasnow and George Kirby. Glasnow was lights out in his minor league rehab stint earlier this season and has been good but not great since returning to the Rays starting rotation, posting a 3.84 FIP and 1.32 WHIP in 30 1/3 innings of work. I do think his best days are ahead of him and like the matchup here as he faces the Mariners for the first time in his career. Note that Glasnow is coming off a 12-strikeout performance last time out - his highest strikeout total since April of 2021 - clearly showing that he is rounding back into form. Since scoring 23 runs over a two-game stretch last week, the Mariners have gone into the tank again offensively, scoring four runs or less in five of their last six games. George Kirby is having a tremendous season, having logged a 3.27 FIP and 1.07 WHIP in 15 starts spanning 94 innings. While the Rays lineup is daunting for the best of pitchers, Kirby probably doesn't mind facing them after tossing six shutout innings of four-hit ball against them last season. Behind Kirby is a Mariners bullpen that has struggled lately, but should theoretically be in good shape right now having worked only 271 2/3 innings collectively this season. Mariners relievers have combined to record a 3.88 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season. The Rays 'pen has been as good as advertised lately, posting a collective 0.91 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over the last seven games. They've had to work 351 1/3 innings on the campaign but that's been more strategy-based than anything else given the nature of their starting rotation. Take the under (8*). |
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06-29-23 | Phillies v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Phillies delivered an 8-5 victory - their second in a row to open this series. I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday as Philadelphia sends Taijuan Walker to the hill against Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs. Walker has turned things around after a shaky start to the season, allowing just two earned runs on 14 hits over his last four starts, covering a span of 26 innings. He should be happy to be facing the Cubs, noting that he's gone up against them four times since 2021, yielding just five earned runs in 22 innings of work. Note that his last four outings against Chicago have totalled 3, 3, 5 and 4 runs. Kyle Hendricks has faced a similar path to that of Walker this season, albeit on a shorter time frame as he started the year on the injured list. Hendricks has lowered his FIP to 3.56 and his WHIP to 0.98 after holding his last three opponents to only three earned runs in 19 1/3 innings. You'd be hard-pressed to find two bullpens in better shape as we head toward the end of June. The Phillies 'pen entered last night's action having logged just 276 innings collectively this season and only 22 1/3 innings over the last seven games. Meanwhile, the Cubs relief corps had worked just 267 2/3 innings including only 24 over the last seven contests. Thanks to trailing for the majority of the first two games in this series, Chicago was able to keep two of its key relief arms in Mark Leiter Jr. and closer Adbert Alzolay idle. Take the under (8*). |
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06-27-23 | Brewers v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and New York at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'm expecting a high-scoring affair in Queens on Tuesday as the Brewers and Mets continue their four-game series. Milwaukee will give the start to veteran Julio Teheran. He's burst back on the scene recording a 1.53 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 35 1/3 innings of work this season. I simply wonder how long he can keep it up. Note that the last time we saw Teheran pitch a full big league season was in 2019 when he logged a 4.66 FIP and 1.32 WHIP with the Braves. In limited work in 2020 and 2021, Teheran recorded an 8.62 and 6.37 FIP, respectively. At the minor league level this year, Teheran had posted a 5.62 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 40 innings with the Padres Triple-A affiliate. Behind Teheran is a Brewers bullpen that has pitched well lately but still checks in sporting a collective 4.47 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). David Peterson makes his return to the Mets starting rotation, starting a MLB game for the first time in over a month. Keep in mind, he has struggled to the tune of a 4.78 FIP and 1.74 WHIP at the big league level this season. He hasn't fared much better in the minors, posting a 4.86 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 37 innings at Triple-A. The Brewers don't figure to be a favorable opponent for Peterson to return against, noting they've lit him up to the tune of nine earned runs in eight innings in two games against him going back to last year. The Mets bullpen entered this series having recorded a collective 4.24 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take the over (10*). |
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06-26-23 | White Sox v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. The Angels scored a whopping 25 runs in Saturday's win over the Rockies at hitter-friendly Coors Field but it was right back to the doldrums on Sunday as they plated only three runs, losing for the fifth time in their last six games, including a pair of shutout losses. It's been a similar struggle for the White Sox offense as they've scored four runs or less in eight of their last 10 games overall. Dylan Cease will get the start for Chicago on Monday. After a shaky start to the season, he's settled down, allowing two earned runs or less in each of his last four outings. Cease owns a 3.99 FIP and 1.32 WHIP on the season - rather pedestrian numbers to be sure - however, those numbers have been trending doward. Cease faced the Angels once last season, tossing seven shutout innings in a 3-0 victory. Reid Detmers will counter for Los Angeles. He'll have the advantage of facing the White Sox for the first time in his career and comes in hot, having allowed just two earned runs in 18 2/3 innings over his last three starts. What I like about Detmers is the fact that he's yet to be asked to pitch on short rest (four days) this season. He checks in sporting a career-best 3.27 FIP and 1.36 WHIP. As far as the bullpens go, the White Sox relief corps has pitched much better lately, entering yesterday's action sporting a collective 4.05 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last seven games. While the Angels 'pen has struggled lately, it still went into Sunday's action with a solid 3.65 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, not to mention 27 converted saves and only 13 blown. Take the under (10*). |
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06-25-23 | Astros v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Los Angeles at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. These two teams were involved in a high-scoring affair last night as the Dodgers rallied for an 8-7 victory. I expect a much lower-scoring contest on Sunday as Houston looks to salvage the finale of this three-game series. Hunter Brown will get the start for the Astros. He's coming off a poor outing against the Mets as he allowed six earned runs in just 5 2/3 innings of work. On a positive note, he has worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven starts. He'll also be making his fourth straight start on full rest (five days). The Astros bullpen has admittedly struggled lately but I do think it's only a matter of time before they turn it around, noting they entered last night's contest sporting a 3.34 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the road this season. Like Brown, Tony Gonsolin is coming off a rocky outing last time out, yielding seven earned runs over 5 2/3 innings. He still owns a 2.92 ERA and 1.01 WHIP this season. The right hander has posted a 4.11 FIP, allowing onlyi 58-of-217 batters to reach base. The Dodgers bullpen has slowly been rounding back into form, entering Saturday's contest with a 4.25 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over the last seven contests. On the season, they've converted 19 saves while blowing only seven. Take the under (8*). |
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06-24-23 | Astros v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Los Angeles at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We saw a low-scoring game to open this series last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. Ronel Blanco will take the ball for the visiting Astros. While he's posted terrific minor league numbers for stretches over the course of his career, that hasn't translated to success at the big league level. Last season, Blanco recorded a 5.32 FIP and 1.90 WHIP in very limited work with the Astros, pitching just 6 1/3 innings. So far this season, he's logged 29 innings with the big club, posting a 5.58 FIP and 1.69 WHIP. Of the 132 batters he has faced, 50 have reached base. All told, Blanco has allowed 10.4 hits and 5.0 walks per nine innings at the major league level. Behind Blanco is an Astros bullpen that entered last night's contest sporting a collective 6.23 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over the last seven games. Rookie Bobby Miller will counter for Los Angeles. After a red hot start to the campaign, he was brought back to Earth against the Giants last time out, yielding seven earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. I can't help but think more regression is coming for Miller, noting that he has held opponents to only 6.0 hits and 0.3 home runs per nine innings this season. At the Triple-A level earlier this season, Miller posted a 5.65 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 14 1/3 innings, allowing twice as many home runs (2) in around half the number of innings that he has at the major league level. The Dodgers 'pen entered last night's game with a collective 6.07 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over the last seven contests with only six converted saves and six blown. The Astros offense has been hit-or-miss lately but has shown a fairly strong bounce-back pattern lately, scoring 3, 7, 1, 4, 10 and 2 runs over their last six games. Take the over (10*). |
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06-23-23 | Astros v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. This game features a sneaky-good starting pitching matchup as J.P. France takes the ball for the Astros against rookie Emmet Sheehan of the Dodgers. France's early big league returns have been somewhat mixed as he has posted a 4.94 FIP and 1.20 WHIP. With that said, he has settled in lately, working at least into the sixth inning in five straight starts entering Friday's contest. Last time out he held a surging Reds lineup to only two earned runs in 6 2/3 innings. Emmet Sheehan absolutely lit it up at the Double-A level before getting the call to the big club and proceeded to toss six shutout innings against the Giants last weekend. In the minors, Sheehan had recorded a 1.86 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 53 1/3 innings before getting the call to the majors. Only 52 of the 211 batters he had faced managed to reach base. Both bullpens have struggled lately and in the case of the Dodgers has been a general disappointment this season. With that said, both teams are coming off an off day on Thursday meaning it should be all hands on deck for this one and I believe both starters are capable of working deep into the game pitching on full or extended rest. Take the under (8*). |
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06-16-23 | Reds v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. Two unheralded starters will match up as the Reds and Astros do battle in the opener of their three-game series on Friday. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most. Andrew Abbott has battled command issues but has still yet to allow an earned run in his first two big league starts, logging 11 2/3 innings of six-hit ball. Abbott has posted a 3.36 FIP and 1.11 WHIP in those two outings, seemingly picking up where he left off after recording a 2.50 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 54 innings of work at the minor league level. It's worth mentioning that the Astros have walked only 212 times as a team this season, among the lowest totals in the majors. Behind Abbott is a Reds bullpen that enjoyed an off day on Thursday and has been better than expected this season, recording a collective 3.80 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. On the road, Cincinnati has converted 14 saves while blowing only five. J.P. France will take the ball for Houston. He's had an up-and-down start to his big league career and is coming off an outing in which he issued an uncharacteristic six walks against the Guardians. With that said, he has worked at least into the sixth inning in four straight starts. The Reds just got finished beating up on one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball in Kansas City but should find the going a little tougher in Houston. Note that the Astros bullpen has been terrific this season, posting a collective 3.25 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 17 saves converted and only seven blown. Take the under (10*). |
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06-15-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Arizona at 3:40 pm et on Thursday. After a pair of wild, high-scoring affairs to open this series we saw the two offenses take a bit of a breather last night. I expect the scoring to pick back up on Thursday afternoon as Philadelphia sends Aaron Nola to the hill against Ryne Nelson of Arizona. Nola has faced the D'Backs four times in his career, posting a lofty 8.41 ERA and 1.67 WHIP with those four contests totalling 13, 9, 13 and 15 runs. While the right-hander has posted solid overall numbers this season, his recent results haven't been stellar as he has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last four outings. Note that he'll be making his third consecutive start on short rest (four days) here. Nelson has not looked comfortable at all pitching at Chase Field this season, logging a 6.62 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in seven home starts. He has generally struggled against teams getting a second (or third, or fourth) look at him over the course of his young career. Here, the Phillies will be seeing him for the second time this season. Note that Nelson owns a 4.67 FIP and 1.46 WHIP this season with 98 of the 289 batters he has faced managing to reach base. Neither bullpen brings much confidence into this contest with the Phillies relief corps having posted a collective 8.34 ERA and 1.72 WHIP over the last seven games and the D'Backs 'pen logging a 5.19 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (8*). |
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06-14-23 | Angels v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
A.L. West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen plenty of offense in the first two games of this series and I expect more of the same on Wednesday as the Angels send Reid Detmers to the mound against Andrew Heaney of the Rangers. Detmers has been reasonably effective for the Halos so far this season, logging a 3.40 FIP, however he hasn't shown the ability to work deep into games thanks in large part to a lofty 1.51 WHIP. On three previous occasions he has come off a team victory in his most recent start and in those three outings he allowed 11 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings of work. Detmers faced the Rangers once previously this season, allowing three earned runs on seven hits over just four innings in a 10-1 home defeat. While much has been made of the overworked and undermanned nature of the Rangers bullpen, the Angels 'pen has perhaps labored even more lately, logging a collective 30.0 innings over the last seven games and no having been afforded a day off since June 5th. Andrew Heaney has posted fairly typical numbers so far this season but has struggled to settle in here at Globe Life Field, posting a 5.67 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in seven home outings. His 4.80 FIP and 1.25 WHIP certainly leave something to be desired and I suspect he'll have his hands full with a red hot Angels offense that has produced just shy of 6.0 runs per game over the last week. The Rangers bullpen allowed the Halos to pull away in the ninth inning last night. Their relief corps got off to a terrific start this season but have now seen their collective ERA rise to 4.57 and their FIP to 1.26. On the season, Texas has only converted 12 saves while blowing 10. Take the over (10*). |
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06-13-23 | Angels v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring extra innings affair to open this series last night as the Angels rallied for a 9-6 victory. I expect a much different story to unfold on Tuesday. Jaime Barria will get the start for the visiting Angels. He's made 14 appearances but only three starts for the Halos this season and has pitched well, logging a 3.04 FIP and 0.97 WHIP in 39 innings of work. Barria should be happy to see the Rangers in the opposing dugout as he owns a career 3.27 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 10 previous starts against them. The Angels bullpen continues to impress. Last night, after digging an early 5-1 hole, Los Angeles' pitching staff hung tough and ultimately limited the Rangers to only one run over the final nine innings. The Halos relief corps entered last night's contest sporting a collective 0.68 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over the last seven games. It sounds like the Rangers are leaning toward giving Cody Bradford his third big league start on Tuesday (with Jon Gray sidelined due to a blister). The results have been mixed in Bradford's first two starts but he did shake off the nerves to hold the Orioles to only two earned runs over five innings last time out. He had made 10 starts previously at the Triple-A level, recording a 1.82 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. The Rangers bullpen has been good but not great this season but did enter Monday's action sporting a collective 1.16 WHIP in 99 innings pitched at home and has been 'underworked' in the big picture at least, logging a combined 197 innings this season (it did eclipse the 200-inning mark in last night's marathon). Take the under (8*). |
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06-10-23 | A's v. Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Oakland and Milwaukee at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The A's saw their five-game 'over' streak come to an end in last night's series-opener in Milwaukee but Oakland did manage to stun the Brewers for its third straight victory. I'm anticipating a higher-scoring affair on Saturday as the A's hand the ball to Paul Blackburn against Julio Teheran of the Brewers. Blackburn has posted a 4.05 FIP and 1.67 WHIP through two starts, spanning nine innings of work. Of the 42 batters he has faced, 15 have reached base. More concerning is the fact that Blackburn had struggled mightily at the Triple-A level, logging a 7.50 ERA and 2.17 WHIP in six outings covering a span of 18 innings. Of the 90 batters he faced in the minors, 39 managed to reach base. Behind Blackburn is an A's bullpen that has posted a collective 6.40 ERA and 1.72 WHIP on the road this season, blowing five saves while converting only four (entering last night's action). Veteran Julio Teheran has made two big league starts this season and has pitched surprisingly well, recording a 3.97 FIP and 0.92 WHIP. That's in stark contrast to his performance at the Triple-A level where he had posted a 5.62 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in the Padres organization. The A's have been consistently applying pressure on opposing pitching staffs over the last week, plating 5, 4, 11, 9 and 5 runs over their last five contests. As bad as they've been overall this season, they are still averaging just north of 4.0 runs per game away from home. They may be catching the Brewers bullpen at the right time as Milwaukee relievers have combined to post a 5.56 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last seven contests (entering last night's action). Take the over (10*). |
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06-06-23 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams met for a three-game series in Arizona back in early May and two of those contests flew 'over' the total, reaching 15 and 17 runs. I'm anticipating a similarly high-scoring start to this series in Washington on Tuesday. Tommy Henry will take the ball for the visiting Diamondbacks. He had his best outing of the young season last time out as he tossed seven shutout innings against the Rockies. That was at home though. Henry has logged a 5.74 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in three road starts. For the season, Henry sports a 5.21 FIP and 1.24 WHIP, allowing 52-of-167 batters he has faced to reach base. That coming after he posted a 5.88 FIP and 1.45 WHIP in 47 big league innings last year. Jake Irvin will counter for Washington on Tuesday. He owns a 5.80 FIP and 1.63 WHIP on the season and has worked beyond the fifth inning only once in six starts so far. That doesn't bode well as the Nationals bullpen has recorded a collective 6.65 ERA and 1.75 WHIP over the last seven contests. On the season, Washington has converted only eight saves while also blowing eight here at home. Going back to Irvin, he has faced 124 batters with 47 of them managing to reach base. Arizona is capable of applying plenty of pressure on opposing pitchers when reaching base, having already racked up 55 stolen bases this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-01-23 | Reds v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 2-8 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Reds had their four-game 'over' streak snapped in last night's 5-4 victory here in Boston. I look for a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting in Thursday's series-finale. Reds starter Hunter Greene's most recent outing went 'over' the total but it had everything to do with the Cincinnati offense as it rolled to a 9-0 victory over the Cubs. Greene actually worked six hitless frames in that victory, striking out 11 along the way. That marked his second straight start in which he recorded double-digit strikeouts. Greene has lowered his FIP to 3.62 and his WHIP to a still-lofty 1.38. It's worth noting that he should be in line for some regression to the mean in terms of hits allowed, noting he has given up 8.8 hits per nine innings this season after allowing just 7.4 in 125 2/3 innings last year. Chris Sale will counter for Boston. He checks in sporting a 3.90 FIP and 1.16 WHIP in 10 starts spanning 55 1/3 innings of work this season. Sale brings excellent form into this start having allowed just 10 hits and four earned runs in his last three outings, covering a span of 20 innings. The two bullpens have exceeded expectations this season. While the Reds 'pen has suffered a bit of regression lately, logging an ERA north of five over the last seven games, it has also converted four saves without a single blown over that stretch. Between the two clubs, they've combined to convert 31 saves while blowing only 13. Take the under (8*). |
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05-31-23 | Brewers v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Blue Jays picked up their second straight win in the opener of this interleague series last night. They'll likely need to get their bats out again on Wednesday as they hand the ball to a struggling Alek Manoah against Julio Teheran of the Brewers. Teheran has made just one big league start this season - his first since 2021. He held up well in that outing against the Giants but I think it's important to keep that brief start in perspective. At the Triple-A level, with the Padres organization, Teheran had recorded a 5.62 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 40 innings of work. Of the 185 batters he faced, 70 reached base. Manoah has of course struggled this season, posting a 6.15 FIP and 1.79 WHIP in 11 starts. You would have to go back seven outings to find the last time he lasted six innings or more. While the Blue Jays bullpen behind him has held up well, they also haven't had a day off (as a team) since May 11th. The Brewers 'pen entered last night's action sporting an ugly 6.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over the last seven games. Take the over (8*). |
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05-28-23 | Cardinals v. Guardians OVER 8.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Cleveland at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. The 'under' has cashed in the first two games in this series but I expect a different story to unfold in Sunday's series-finale. Jordan Montgomery has been completely out of sorts for the Cardinals lately, allowing 13 earned runs in his last three starts, spanning 14 1/3 innings. He has issued at least three walks only twice in his last 26 starts but those two times have come in his last three outings. He's also inexplicably had the yips in terms of home runs allowed, tagged for six long balls over his last four starts. Hunter Gaddis will counter for Cleveland. He shut the White Sox down over six innings in his most recent start, allowing just two hits without allowing a single earned run. We've seen this story play out before this season though, noting that he didn't allow an earned run over six innings against Oakland back in April before getting lit up for eight earned runs in three innings in his next outing. In 19 1/3 innings pitched at the Triple-A level this season, Gaddis had posted a 5.12 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. He has been better with the Guardians, posting a 3.64 FIP and 1.21 WHIP but I do think regression will be in order over his next few outings (note that he owns a career 6.25 FIP and 1.49 WHIP). Both bullpens have been solid lately but the Guardians have blown 11 saves already this season while the Cardinals relief corps has been overworked, having not had a day off since May 11th. Take the over (8*). |
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05-27-23 | Cardinals v. Guardians OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Cleveland at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. These two teams were involved in a relatively low-scoring affair to open this series last night and the Guardians posted their fourth straight 'under' result in a 4-3 victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. St. Louis will send Jack Flaherty to the hill for his 11th start of the season. He checks in sporting a 4.88 FIP and 1.59 WHIP, having allowed a whopping 85-of-223 batters he has faced to reach base. I don't need to tell you that spells trouble as he prepares to face a Guardians lineup that, while struggling to hit for the most part, does generally apply a ton of pressure on opposing pitchers with their speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths. Meanwhile, the Cards bullpen behind Flaherty is as overworked as it gets having not had a day off since May 11th, entering last night's action with a collective 4.98 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over the last seven games. Tanner Bibee will get the start for Cleveland. His overall numbers this season are solid but he has proven vulnerable at times. He's just two starts removed from allowing four earned runs over just 3 2/3 innings against the light-hitting Tigers for example. He was fortunate to give up only two earned runs over six innings against the Mets last time out as he was tagged for seven hits and issued four walks (while striking out only three). The Cards bats were relatively quiet last night but we know they're capable of breaking out, noting that they've scored eight runs or more four times since May 15th. The Guardians bullpen has posted terrific numbers overall but used a number of key arms last night and has blown 11 saves to date (and nearly blew another last night). Take the over (10*). |
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05-26-23 | Cardinals v. Guardians OVER 8 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'm not convinced that this will be the pitcher's duel that many are expecting as the Cardinals send Matthew Liberatore to the hill against Guardians ace Shane Bieber. Liberatore will be making his third appearance and second start for the Cardinals this season. He pitched well in his lone previous start, out-duelling Brewers ace Corbin Burnes in a 3-0 victory back on May 17th. The left-hander has yet to find much consistency at the big league level, however, noting that he logged a 5.02 FIP and 1.73 WHIP in 34 2/3 innings with St. Louis last season. He has allowed 9-of-27 batters he has faced to reach base in limited work this year and I do expect the Guardians to apply plenty of pressure with their aggressive base-running on Friday. Perhaps the bigger concern should be the Cardinals bullpen as they haven't had a day off since May 11th and check in sporting a collective 4.98 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over the last seven games. For the season, the Cards 'pen has converted only 11 saves while blowing 10. Shane Bieber has been somewhat un-Bieber-like this season, posting a 3.98 FIP and 1.21 WHIP. His walks per nine innings are up and his strikeouts are down (considerably). Here, he'll be starting on short rest (four days) for a third consecutive turn in the rotation. Compounding matters is the fact that he worked eight innings, throwing 106 pitches in his most recent start. The Guardians bullpen has been good but has had a tendency to cough up late leads, blowing two saves in the last seven games alone and 11 on the season so far. Take the over (8*). |
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05-25-23 | Mets v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The wind was blowing in at Wrigley Field last night and as a result we saw an exceptionally low total, not to mention another 'under' result, the second straight to open this series. I expect a different story to unfold in Thursday's series-finale, however. New York will give the start to Carlos Carrasco. To say he has struggled this season would be an understatement. Carrasco checks in sporting a 6.97 FIP and 1.55 WHIP through only four starts spanning 18 2/3 innings due to a stint on the I.L. He did pitch reasonably well in two rehab appearances at the minor league level but that was at Double-A Binghamton. Here in the bigs he has allowed 32-of-86 batters he has faced to reach base including four home runs. Carrasco did pitch six shutout innings in his lone start against the Cubs last year but I think we can agree that he was a much different pitcher a year ago than he is now. Kyle Hendricks will get his first start of the season for the Cubs. He's had extended work at the minor league (Triple-A) level and hasn't looked particularly good, posting a 5.75 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, allowing 28-of-85 batters he has faced to reach base including a pair of home runs in 20 1/3 innings. Keep in mind, Hendricks has struggled at the big league level over the last two seasons, recording a 4.89 FIP and 1.35 WHIP in 2021 and a 4.82 FIP and 1.29 WHIP in 2022. The Mets entered last night's action averaging north of 5.0 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching this season. I don't expect either of tonight's starters to work deep into this game and that should open the door for some late runs, noting that the two bullpens have really struggled lately. New York's relief corps checks in sporting a collective 5.55 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night's action) while the Cubs 'pen has posted a 6.45 ERA and 1.79 WHIP over the same stretch (also prior to last night's contest). Take the over (10*). |
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05-24-23 | Marlins v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. We're starting to see this total creep down following consecutive 'under' results to open this series. I believe it's the wrong move. Sandy Alcantara will get the start for the visiting Marlins. This 2023 campaign hasn't gone particularly well for the Marlins ace as he checks in sporting a 5.05 ERA in 57 innings of work. He hasn't been as bad as that ERA indicates, logging a 3.59 FIP and 1.23 WHIP but there is still reason for concern as he has allowed a whopping 30 earned runs over his last seven starts and now pitches on short rest (four days) for just the third time this season. The Marlins bullpen has been overworked, having been called into action for just shy of 190 innings already this season. Note that Miami relievers entered last night's contest sporting a collective 4.38 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road this season. Karl Kauffmann will get his second big league start for the Rockies on Wednesday. I'm confident the Marlins bats can inflict plenty of damage against the right-hander. Note that he'll be starting on just four days' rest after allowing 9-of-21 batters he faced to reach base in his debut against the Rangers last week. Kauffmann inexplicably got the call to the bigs after getting rocked to the tune of a 7.78 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in 37 innings of work at the Triple-A level earlier this season. He allowed a ridiculous 69-of-174 batters to reach base with Albuquerque. The Rockies bullpen has held up alright so far in this series but is still a subpar relief corps having entered last night's action sporting a collective 4.61 ERA and 1.55 WHIP at home this season. Take the over (8*). |
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05-23-23 | White Sox v. Guardians OVER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. This is a rematch of the same starting pitching matchup we saw last Thursday - a game the Guardians won by a score of 3-1. Both starters worked their way into and out of trouble on a number of occasions early in that contest and it ultimately turned out to be a low-scoring affair. I expect a different story to unfold here as both Dylan Cease and Logan Allen start on short rest (four days). In the case of Cease, he'll be starting on four days' rest for a fourth consecutive turn in the rotation. He hasn't come close to reaching the heights he saw in the 2022 campaign (he finished second in A.L. Cy Young Award voting), logging a 4.20 FIP and 1.39 WHIP. Of the 237 batters he has faced, 79 have reached base. Since striking out 18 in his first two outings this season, Cease has topped out at just six K's over his last eight trips to the hill. Allen will be making his first career big league start on short rest. He struck out eight in each of his first two starts this season but has K'd only 13 in his last three outings combined, covering a span of 15 2/3 innings. Not helping matters is the fact that White Sox hitters just saw him (and had some success with seven hits and a walk in 5 2/3 innings) less than a week ago - the first time he'll face an opponent for a second time in his big league career. Last week, I noted that the two bullpens have been a mixed-bag this season, combining to blow 17 saves at the time. Well, they've gone on to blow two more saves since then, so that's 19 blown saves on the campaign between the two 'pens. Take the over (10*). |
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05-22-23 | Marlins v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Monday. The Rockies return home licking their wounds after getting swept at the hands of the Rangers in Texas, outscored by a 31-10 margin in that three-game series. They'll be in tough again on Monday as they hand the ball to Chase Anderson, who is with his third organization already this season, for his second start of the campaign. Since lasting four years with the Brewers from 2016 to 2019, Anderson has now bounced around five different clubs since 2020. I don't need to tell you there's a reason for that. Incredibly, only 5-of-35 batters Anderson has faced at the big league level this season have managed to reach base. I can't help but feel that regression is coming, however, noting that Anderson had allowed 37-of-100 minor league batters to reach base, including four home runs, in 23 innings of work at the Triple-A level earlier in the campaign. Behind Anderson is an awful Rockies bullpen that has been severely overworked, logging 189 innings this season including 30 1/3 frames over the last seven games alone. Over their last seven contests they've posted a collective 5.64 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. Edward Cabrera will counter for Miami. He was dealing with a blister on his finger in his most recent outing but appears on track to make this start on Monday. Note that he'll be starting on short rest (four days) for just the fourth time this season, having allowed eight earned runs in 13 1/3 innings in his previous three outings on four days' rest. Like the Rockies, the Marlins 'pen has also been overworked this season, called into action for a collective 183 innings, recording a 4.18 ERA and 1.31 WHIP along the way. Take the over (8*). |
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05-21-23 | Rockies v. Rangers OVER 9 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Texas at 2:35 pm et on Sunday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two teams yesterday as the Rangers continued their onslaught of the Rockies pitching staff in an 11-5 victory. I expect more of the same on Sunday. Connor Seabold will take the ball for the visiting Rockies. He remains in the Colorado starting rotation out of necessity only as he has struggled to the tune of a 5.12 FIP and 1.61 WHIP in 10 appearances including three starts this season. Of the 131 batters he has faced, a whopping 50 of them have reached base. Behind Seabold is a Rockies bullpen that has been extremely overworked, logging a collective 33 1/3 innings over the last seven games alone. For the season, Rockies relievers have combined to post a 3.90 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. The Rangers will give Andrew Heaney the start. He's been a bit of a mixed-bag, recording a lofty 5.11 FIP but a respectable 1.19 WHIP. The hits simply haven't been falling in against the left-hander as he has allowed just 6.9 hits per nine innings. I do think we'll see some regression to the mean in that department, noting he has still given up 8.6 hits per nine innings over the course of his career. The Rangers bullpen hasn't lived up to expectations this season and has really struggled lately, logging a collective 8.53 ERA and 1.47 WHIP with just one save converted and two blown over the last seven games. Take the over (8*). |
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05-20-23 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. I like the way this game sets up as a high-scoring affair between the Orioles and Blue Jays on Saturday afternoon at Rogers Centre. The Orioles offense kept rolling along last night, putting up six runs in a lopsided victory thanks to tacking on a couple of late runs against a banged-up Blue Jays bullpen. In fact, both bullpens are probably a little weary right now with neither team having had a day off since May 11th. The O's 'pen in particular has been overworked this season, logging 167 2/3 innings collectively. It has admittedly held up well but figures to be pressed into action early on Saturday noting that starter Grayson Rodriguez has yet to last six innings in a start in his big league career. Speaking of Rodriguez, he checks in sporting a 5.46 FIP and 1.73 WHIP and will start on short rest (four days) for the fourth time already this season. He hasn't fared well in his three previous outings on short rest, allowing 12 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings of work. Of the 170 batters Rodriguez has faced this season, 64 have reached base including nine home runs in 37 innings. Alek Manoah has been an abject disaster for the Blue Jays so far this season. To make matters worse, like Rodriguez, he'll be starting on short rest here. Manoah owns a 6.45 FIP and 1.80 WHIP and has allowed a whopping 85-of-214 batters to reach base. The Orioles are capable of applying significant pressure on the right-hander, noting they're among the league leaders in stolen bases with 42. In fact, they've averaging 5.7 runs per game away from home. With the Jays bullpen still sorely missing Zach Pop and Adam Cimber and having logged 4 1/3 innings, using five different relievers, last night, I look for plenty of offense from start to finish in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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05-19-23 | Twins v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday. The Angels were involved in a wild affair in Baltimore yesterday afternoon, rallying for a 6-5 victory to wrap up that four-game series. Now they travel back across the country to host the Twins on Friday and I believe we're in for a relatively low-scoring contest. Joe Ryan will take the ball for the visiting Twins, who were idle yesterday after a three-game series against the Dodgers, also in California. Ryan has been terrific this season, logging a 2.54 FIP and 0.84 WHIP, allowing just 43-of-192 batters to reach base. It really doesn't get much better in terms of starting pitchers this season. Current Angels hitters have gone 4-for-12 in limited action against Ryan with only one extra-base hit (a double from Mike Trout). The Twins offense exploded over a three-game stretch from last Saturday to Monday, plating a whopping 35 runs. Since then, they've been held to eight runs in two games and I expect them to be in tough here as well, noting they average just 3.6 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season and will face a southpaw in Reid Detmers on Friday. Detmers has been a mixed-bag so far this season but it certainly capable of giving the Angels a quality start. Working 129 innings last season, Detmers posted a solid 3.79 FIP and 1.21 WHIP. While he hasn't been able to reach those same heights so far this season, I do think he's been better than his lofty 4.89 ERA indicates as he owns a 3.90 FIP. He has allowed a disappointing 10.0 hits per nine innings but I do expect some regression to the mean in that department, and a lowering of his 1.51 WHIP to go along with it. Current Twins hitters are just 8-for-35 against Detmers including a home run from Carlos Correa. In fact, that home run is the only extra-base hits they've managed to collect off of him. This matchup pits two of the best bullpens in baseball this season. What I really like about the Twins 'pen is the fact that it is one of the freshest in the majors having logged less than 150 innings collectively. Having the day off yesterday certainly helps their cause as well. The Angels 'pen has posted a collective 3.59 ERA and 1.19 WHIP (entering yesterday's action). While the 'over' cashed in Los Angeles' victory yesterday, it hasn't posted consecutive 'over' results since a three-game 'over' streak from May 6th to 8th. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 5-1 in the Twins last six games but they've still posted a 19-22-3 o/u mark this season. Take the under (8*). |
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05-18-23 | Guardians v. White Sox OVER 8 | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. The White Sox have taken the first two games of this series in lopsided fashion and they're favored again in Thursday's finale. I do think the Guardians give them a run here, but rather than back Cleveland in an underdog role, we'll go with the 'over' as I believe this total will prove too low. Logan Allen will get his fifth big league start for the Guardians. It seems as if the book might already be out on him after he looked terrific in his first two outings before getting roughed up in his last two. All told, Allen has posted a solid 3.26 FIP but a less-than-impressive 1.48 WHIP in 21 innings of work this season. Of the 95 batters he has faced, 31 have reached base including two home runs allowed. Dylan Cease will counter for Chicago. He's been terrific in his last three starts against the Guardians (all coming last season) but I don't believe this is a particularly favorable matchup for the right-hander this season. As I've noted time and time again this season, the Guardians do put a lot of pressure on opposing pitchers that have a tendency to put runners on base as they have speed to burn and are ultra-aggressive on the basepaths. Cease certainly fits the bill as one of those pitchers as he has allowed 72-of-212 batters he has faced to reach base in 46 1/3 innings of work this season. Note that Cease hasn't come close to matching last season's scintillating numbers (he finished second in American League Cy Young Award voting), logging a 4.12 FIP and 1.45 WHIP here in 2023. Also note that he'll be making his third straight start on short rest (four days). The two bullpens have been a mixed bag. The Guardians relief corps has generally been terrific, posting a collective 3.17 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. The White Sox 'pen on the other hand has struggled to the tune of a 5.77 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Between the two bullpens we've seen 17 blown saves (compared to 24 converted) so far this season. The Guardians are still without Jose Ramirez and possibly Josh Naylor as well but that's been properly factored into the total in my opinion. Take the over (8*). |
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05-17-23 | Cubs v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The first two games in this series both went 'over' the total but I look for a different story to unfold in Wednesday's series-finale. Chicago has now seen the 'over' cash in a season-high seven straight games. Its longest previous 'over' streak lasted only three games (twice). The interesting thing about this run of 'over' results is the fact that the Cubs aren't actually scoring with much consistency. They've plated 4, 10, 6, 1, 3, 4 and 3 runs during the streak. The question becomes whether the Cubs pitching staff can turn the tide and I believe it can on Wednesday. Veteran left-hander Drew Smyly will get the start for Chicago. He's been a bright spot in the Cubs rotation - turning back the clock to the tune of a 3.57 FIP and 0.97 WHIP in eight starts covering a span of 44 1/3 innings. Of the 176 batters Smyly has faced, only 45 have reached base. Chicago elected to essentially wave the white flag from the seventh inning on last night, keeping its best bullpen arms in reserve. The Cubs 'pen has struggled lately but still entered last night's contest sporting a collective 3.17 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in night games this season (4.11 ERA and 1.21 WHIP overall). J.P. France will get his third straight start in the Astros rotation having impressed in the first two. He got the call to the Show after posting a 2.33 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 19 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level earlier this season. Since joining the Astros, France has recorded a 3.82 FIP and 0.69 WHIP, allowing just 9-of-44 batters to reach base. Behind France is a terrific Astros bullpen that has posted a collective 3.21 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only four blown this season (entering last night's action). Take the under (8*). |
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05-16-23 | Twins v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams were involved in an extra innings slugfest to open this series last night. In fact, the 'over' has now cashed in each of the Twins last four games following a six-game 'under' streak. I look for that run of high-scoring contests to come to an end here. Bailey Ober will get the start for the visiting Twins. He has impressed since getting the call to the bigs this season, posting a 3.31 FIP and 0.90 WHIP in 24 1/3 innings of work. He did get tagged for two home runs in his last start but those were his first two long balls allowed this season. Of the 92 batters Ober has faced this season, only 22 have managed to reach base. Behind Ober is a Twins bullpen that wasn't up to par last night but has generally been solid this season, recording a collective 3.66 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. On the road Minnesota's relief corps has converted five saves while blowing only two. Clayton Kershaw will counter for Los Angeles. He's enjoying another terrific campaign, logging a 3.55 FIP and 0.95 WHIP. Like Ober he has been bitten by the long ball over his last couple of outings but has still allowed just 1.3 home runs per nine innings this season and I would anticipate continued positive regression in that department noting he hasn't given up more than 1.2 HR/9 since the 2019 season. Kershaw has allowed just 48-of-193 batters to reach base and will have the benefit of starting on full rest (five days) here. He faced the Twins once last season, tossing seven shutout innings in a 7-0 Dodgers victory in Minnesota. The Los Angeles bullpen has settled down after a shaky start to the season, posting a collective 4.18 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only four blown. Take the under (8*). |
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05-16-23 | Diamondbacks v. A's OVER 9 | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Diamondbacks cruised to a 5-2 victory. I expect a much different result from a totals perspective on Tuesday as we have an unappealing starting pitching matchup between Tommy Henry of Arizona and Kyle Muller of Oakland. Henry will be making his second straight start on short rest (four days) and that doesn't bode well after he pitched a season-high 6 2/3 innings in his most recent outing. Note that Henry has posted a 5.01 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while allowing 32-of-93 batters he has faced to reach base so far this season. That's after he had logged a lofty 6.33 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 21 1/3 innings of work at the Triple-A level. Behind Henry is a D'Backs bullpen that has posted a collective 4.50 ERA and 1.28 WHIP this season but hasn't had an off day since May 4th. A's starter Kyle Muller was a key piece coming over in the Sean Murphy trade to Atlanta in the offseason. So far this year, Muller hasn't panned out, recording a 5.75 FIP and 1.95 WHIP with 77 of the 185 batters he has faced managing to reach base. The A's bullpen has been among the worst in baseball this season, posting a collective 6.79 ERA and 1.70 WHIP with four saves converted and nine blown. Note that the A's haven't had a day off since May 1st, obviously further complicating their late inning decisions in this series. Take the over (8*). |
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05-16-23 | Cubs v. Astros UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring series-opener between these former N.L. Central rivals last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday. While Cubs starter Justin Steele saw his last start fly 'over' the total in a 10-4 Cubs rout of the Cardinals. We'll continue to smash the 'under' button with Steele on the hill, however, noting that he has logged a 3.22 FIP and 1.03 WHIP while allowing just 53-of-192 batters he has faced to reach base this season. That coming on the heels of a 2022 campaign in which Steele impressively posted a 3.20 FIP and 1.35 WHIP in 24 starts spanning 119 innings of work. Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. He recorded a 3.16 FIP and 0.95 WHIP last year yet was snubbed in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. So far this season, Javier has posted a 3.37 FIP and 1.01 WHIP. He has struck out 35 batters over his last four outings. It's also worth noting that both of tonight's starters will be taking the ball on full rest (five days). While the Cubs bullpen has wobbled a bit lately, it still owns a collective 4.11 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the season. Meanwhile, the Astros 'pen has posted a terrific 3.21 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with those numbers lowering to 2.53 and 0.84 respectively over the last seven games. Take the under (10*). |
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05-15-23 | Reds v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 8-9 | Win | 105 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring games yesterday. In fact, the Rockies have seen the 'under' cash in each of their last four games, matching their longest such streak of the season. The last time they posted four straight 'under' results, their next game totalled 14 runs right here at home against the Diamondbacks. I look for a similar story to unfold here as they open a series against the Reds on Monday. Hunter Greene will take the ball for Cincinnati. We were fairly high on the young right-hander earlier in the campaign but the numbers don't lie at this point and he has really struggled lately. Greene checks in sporting a 3.48 FIP and 1.49 WHIP with 61-of-176 batters he has faced reaching base. It gets a lot worse when you consider he has been tagged for seven earned runs on 13 hits, including three home runs, over his last two outings, covering a span of just 11 innings of work. Greene has pitched here at hitter-friendly Coors Field just once previously in his career (last season), allowing four earned runs on six hits including two home runs in just 4 1/3 innings. Connor Seabold will counter for Colorado. He's made just two big league starts so far this season but has also logged time out of the bullpen. All told, Seabold owns a 5.33 FIP and 1.44 WHIP, allowing 39-of-107 batters he has faced to reach base including four home runs in only 23 2/3 innings of work. Note that the Reds actually faced Seabold last September and chased him after scoring four earned runs in five innings. Both bullpens have held up better than expected so far this season but I would also firmly place both in the 'overworked' category at this point, the Reds' in particular as it entered yesterday's action having logged a whopping 38 collective innings over the last seven games. Also note that the Reds haven't had a day off since last Monday, which obviously doesn't help matters. Take the over (8*). |
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05-14-23 | Rangers v. A's OVER 9 | 11-3 | Win | 105 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Texas and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams yesterday but I expect a different story to unfold in Sunday‘s series-finale. Andrew Heaney will take the ball for the Rangers. As I’ve noted on previous occasions this season, he’s pitching for his fourth different team since 2021. Heaney has struggled so far this year, logging a 5.73 FIP and 1.22 WHIP. The A’s will be getting their second look at the left-hander this season after collecting five hits and two walks over six innings on April 22nd. Drew Rucinski will get another turn in the A’s starting rotation out of necessity only. He’s been predictably awful in his return to the majors (prior to this year he last pitched for the Marlins in 2018), posting a 7.27 FIP and 2.09 WHIP in 14 1/3 innings this season. Of the 73 batters he has faced, 31 have reached base. To make matters worse, Rucinski will be making his second straight start on short rest (four days). Of course, the A’s bullpen has been awful as well, logging a collective 6.72 ERA and 1.72 WHIP with only four saves converted and nine blown. The Rangers relief corps has been far better but still has just eight saves converted compared to six blown so the door should be open for potential late offense if needed here. Take the over (8*). |