|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|07-11-21||Lynx v. Sparks OVER 158||86-61||Loss||-110||11 h 28 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Sunday.
We won with the 'under' in the Lynx most recent game - a stunning 10-point win in Las Vegas on Friday night. Minnesota is playing as well offensively as any team in the league right now and I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as it heads to Los Angeles to wrap up pre-Olympic play on Sunday night.
While the Lynx scored just 77 points in that win over the Aces, that had more to do with game flow than anything else. After building a 15-point lead at the end of the first quarter, and with the Aces making Liz Cambage a late scratch, they didn't have to pour it on for four quarters and essentially pumped the brakes in the second half.
Note that the last two times the Lynx have been held under 80 points they've put up 86 and 87 points in their next game with the 'over' going a perfect 2-0.
The Sparks continue to struggle without a number of key players but should put forth a strong effort here as they look to snap a five-game skid prior to the Olympic break. Keep in mind, their last four games have come against the Aces and Storm. They got bogged down offensively in those contests but should bounce back here.
While the Lynx are a quality defensive team, they do allow just shy of 80 points per game on the road this season and could suffer a bit of a letdown here after limiting the Aces to 35.8% shooting last time out. Having already won the first meeting in this series by 16 points this season it would be easy for them to overlook the Sparks here with the Olympic break on deck.
Los Angeles does average nearly two points above its season scoring average at home this season. Look for a higher-scoring contest than most are expecting here. Take the over (10*).
|07-09-21||Lynx v. Aces UNDER 174||77-67||Win||100||13 h 44 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Las Vegas at 10:30 pm et on Friday.
We won with the 'under' in the Lynx last game on Wednesday night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they being a brief two-game road trip prior to the extended Olympic break.
The Lynx are one of the WNBA's better defensive teams, even on the road where they allow just 81.2 points per game (that's actually 0.7 points below their season average) on 43.0% shooting. They're a fairly well-rested team right now as this will be just their third game this month.
While Las Vegas is known for its explosive offense, it can play some defense as well, checking in allowing 81.4 points per game on 39.5% shooting here at home this season. With that being said, the 'over' has gone 7-3 in their previous 10 home games which affords us the opportunity to take the contrarian route at a generous number here.
Note that the Aces have put up 90 points or more in consecutive games (even though they needed overtime to get there last time out). They've scored 90+ points in back-to-back games on five previous occasions this season with the 'under' going 4-1 in their next game with an average total points scored of just 148.8 points.
Minnesota has scored 82 points or more in five straight games but I'm not sure that's a sustainable trend. Former Ace Kayla McBride has been red hot over the last few games but they'll need some help if Minnesota is to continue putting up big offensive numbers. The Lynx are short on scoring depth with little production off the bench on most nights. I don't believe they'll be interested in a track meet here. Take the under (10*).
|07-07-21||Wings v. Lynx UNDER 169.5||Top||79-85||Win||100||7 h 4 m||Show|
WNBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Minnesota at 8 pm et on Wednesday.
Both of these teams are coming off consecutive peak offensive performances but I'll go the contrarian route and back the 'under' in this one as they match up in Minnesota on Wednesday night.
Dallas has shot 50% or better in consecutive games for the first time this season. Keep in mind, prior to those two performances the Wings had shot 42.3% or worse in consecutive contests. They check in shooting just 43.4% on the road this season.
The Wings have seen the 'over' cash in three straight games - their longest 'over' streak of the season. In fact, only once this season have they seen the 'over' cash in three out of four games and on that occasion, their next contest totaled just 135 points.
Minnesota has shot better than 50% from the field in three of its last four games but it's interesting to note that all three of those performances came on the road. Here at home the Lynx are shooting just north of 45% on the season.
The 'over' has cashed in four of the Lynx last five games overall. That situation has come up twice previously this season and on both of those occasions their next game totaled exactly 158 points with the 'under' going 2-0.
This is the highest total we've seen in three meetings between these two teams this season. Look for it to prove to be too high. Take the under (10*).
|07-04-21||Dream v. Aces OVER 171.5||95-118||Win||100||8 h 23 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Las Vegas at 6 pm et on Sunday.
The Aces are coming off an uncharacteristically-poor offensive performance against Los Angeles two nights ago as they scored just 66 points on 37.7% shooting. I don't expect it to turn into a slump, however, as the Aces return home where they average an impressive 94.9 points per game on 49.5% shooting this season.
Atlanta meanwhile nearly staged a massive upset on the road against Seattle last time out, dropping a narrow 91-88 decision. The Dream have actually been a better offensive team on the road compared to at home this season, averaging 3.4 points per game above their season average. The problem is, they've allowed just shy of 89 points per contest on 46.7% shooting away from home.
I have the Aces approaching the 100-point mark in this one which means we shouldn't need a peak performance from the Dream offensively to help this one 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (9*).
|07-03-21||Lynx v. Mercury UNDER 163||99-68||Loss||-110||14 h 47 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Phoenix at 10 pm et on Saturday.
As this is a travel day, I'll keep my analysis relatively short for this play.
We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these same two teams on Wednesday and I don't expect to see a much different result in Saturday's rematch.
Minnesota got a big performance from Kayla McBride in that game but those type of shooting efforts have been few and far between from her since joining the Lynx in the offseason. Phoenix is a quality defensive team and after allowing Minnesota to shoot 51% from the field last time out I expect it to make the necessary adjustments here.
Diana Taurasi's return has given the Mercury a bit of a boost offensively but this is a team that still hasn't really lived up to expectations this season. They were held to 46% shooting against the Lynx on Wednesday, including just 32 points in the second half. I'm not anticipating a great deal of improvement offensively as familiarity tends to lend itself to lower-scoring basketball more often than not. Take the under (10*).
|07-02-21||Sky v. Wings UNDER 165.5||Top||91-100||Loss||-110||13 h 52 m||Show|
WNBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Dallas at 8 pm et on Friday.
We won with the 'over' in this same matchup two nights ago but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as we deal with a higher opening total in Friday's rematch.
Chicago shot better than 47% from the field in Wednesday's victory. I'm confident we'll see Dallas make the necessary defensive adjustments here, noting that it had held four straight opponents to 43.7% shooting or worse prior to that contest.
Offensively, we've seen Dallas score more than 80 points in three straight games but I believe that streak could be in jeopardy here. The Wings have actually shot just 41.3% as a team at home this season. They're not getting the same offensive production from the secondary scorers such as Marina Mabrey and Satou Sabally right now.
As I noted in Wednesday's analysis, the Sky are one of the league's best defensive teams, limiting opponents to 74.1 points per game on 41% shooting on the road this season. They were in a tough spot on Wednesday but still kept the Wings offense in check for all intents and purposes. Expect an even better effort here. Take the under (10*).
|06-30-21||Sky v. Wings OVER 163||91-81||Win||100||9 h 22 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Dallas at 8 pm et on Wednesday.
Both of these teams enter this game riding three-game 'under' streaks. I don't think that trend is sustainable, however.
Chicago is coming off a miserable 58-point performance in a blowout loss to Connecticut last time out. Candace Parker is certainly in line for a strong bounce-back performance here after shooting 3-of-11 for six points in that most recent contest. In general, I expect the Sky to rebound offensively here noting that prior to that last game they had scored 91 points or more in three straight contests. Dallas isn't exactly a defensive powerhouse - it actually allows 1.9 points per game more than its season average when playing at home this season.
The Wings have posted consecutive wins, scoring 89 and 85 points in the process with Arike Ogunbowale bouncing back following a mini shooting slump. She poured in 30 points last time out and should pick up where she left off here. Chicago does check in as one of the league's better defensive teams but the Wings are terrific offensively here at home, averaging just shy of 86 points per contest. In fact, Dallas home games have averaged 168 total points this season. Take the over (10*).
|06-29-21||Liberty v. Dream UNDER 170.5||69-73||Win||100||10 h 45 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Tuesday.
We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams two days ago as New York did most of the scoring in a 101-78 rout. Here, I look for Atlanta to make the necessary defensive adjustments, noting that the Liberty had been held to 78 points or less in five consecutive games prior to that outburst.
Atlanta has now seen the 'over' cash in four straight games but I'm not sure that's a sustainable trend. The Dream recently welcomed back starting point guard Chennedy Carter but as we saw on Sunday, she can't do it all. Atlanta isn't an overly deep offensive team, especially with highly-touted rookie Aari McDonald struggling to find her groove at the professional level this season.
Interestingly, New York has been a better defensive team on the road than at home this season, allowing 85.9 points per game on 43.1% shooting. The Liberty average less than 80 points per game themselves away from home so again, a repeat of Sunday's 101-point effort is unlikely.
The 'over' has cashed in both meetings between these two teams this season. Last year, we saw the 'under' cash in both matchups, including one game that totaled just 118 points. Expect this one to stay 'under' the generous total. Take the under (10*).
|06-27-21||Sparks v. Mercury OVER 155.5||79-88||Win||100||8 h 1 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 6 pm et on Sunday.
We won with the 'under' the last time these two teams met on June 18th but I believe the total will prove too low this time around, as the scene shifts to Phoenix for Sunday's matchup.
The Mercury have actually been idle since that last game in Los Angeles nine days ago. They're expected to have Diana Taurasi back for Sunday's game. While I would usually think it might be tough for a player to get re-acclimated after an extended absence, Taurasi is a veteran that has been through it before and the with the team having had plenty of practice time between games, I look for the Mercury offense to do just fine.
The Sparks are dealing with a cluster of key injuries right now but should still enter this game with confidence after scoring 89 points in a win over Washington last time out.
Los Angeles is allowing 80.8 points per game on the road this season but the Mercury haven't been any better defensively at home, giving up 81.7 points per game.
Note that the 'over' has gone 8-1 with the Sparks having lost four or five of their last six games ATS over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with those contests totaling an average of 168.9 points. Take the over (10*).
|06-26-21||Mystics v. Wings OVER 164.5||74-85||Loss||-111||4 h 9 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Dallas at 1 pm et on Saturday.
|06-24-21||Wings v. Fever OVER 162||Top||89-64||Loss||-110||9 h 10 m||Show|
WNBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Indiana at 7 pm et on Thursday.
We missed with Dallas two nights ago as it dropped a disappointing 80-70 decision at the hands of Connecticut after blowing a big second half lead. Here, I look for the Wings to pick up the pieces and turn in a stellar offensive performance but I'm not counting on their defensive play to excel against a desperate Indiana squad.
Dallas has shot 59-for-125 (47.2%) over its last two games and should feast in this bounce-back spot. Indiana actually turned in a terrific defensive effort last time out but still gave up 82 points in a losing effort despite holding Minnesota to a 37% shooting night. Keep in mind, prior to that game, the lowly Fever had allowed nine straight opponents to shoot 42.4% or better from the field with five of those opponents shooting 49.3% or better.
The Fever are now a miserable 1-14 on the season but will perhaps look at this as a prime opportunity to pick up a rare win after just missing against the Lynx on Tuesday. Dallas has now allowed three of its last four opponents to score 80 points or more. Opponents are averaging 83.3 points per game when the Wings play on the road this season.
The fact that the last five meetings in this series have all stayed 'under' the total and the Fever enter this one riding a three-game 'under' streak has actually set us up with a generously-low total. Take the over (10*).
|06-23-21||Lynx v. Dream UNDER 168||87-85||Loss||-110||10 h 34 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Wednesday.
The 'over' has cashed in the first two meetings in this series this season but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday.
Both teams are coming off poor defensive efforts with the Lynx giving up 95 points on 50% shooting in a blowout loss in Dallas and Atlanta allowing 96 points on 49.3% shooting in a three-point loss in Washington. Keep in mind, prior to that, both teams had allowed sub-40% shooting in their previous contest.
Here, we find both teams playing on extended rest with the Lynx idle since Saturday and the Dream having not played since last Thursday.
Neither team has been consistent offensively, with Minnesota shooting 40.9% on the road and Atlanta shooting 40.8% at home. With this being the third meeting between these two teams this season, I believe that familiarity will lend itself to a relatively low-scoring affair on Wednesday night. Take the under (10*).
|06-18-21||Mercury v. Sparks UNDER 157.5||Top||80-66||Win||100||13 h 44 m||Show|
WNBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Friday.
We missed with the 'under' in this same matchup two nights ago but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. We're being given a more favorable number to work with and I look for both teams to make the necessary defensive adjustments to help keep this one 'under' the total.
The Sparks had no answers for Mercury star Brittney Griner on Wednesday as she shot 10-of-16 from the field and got to the free throw line 12 times on her way to a 30-point explosion. I fully expect to see the Sparks make some adjustments and do a better job of keeping her contained here. I also think we'll see things balance out a bit after the Mercury held a 28-6 free throw edge two nights ago.
Credit Los Angeles for prevailing in that contest thanks to shooting 45% from the field. Keep in mind, this is a team that had shot 36.8% or worse from the field in their previous three games. Phoenix will undoubtedly respond with a better defensive effort, noting that it had previously held six straight opponents to 42.7% or worse shooting.
The 'over' has now cashed in each of the Mercury's last two games. Note that they've yet to post three straight 'over' results this season. The last time they were in position to do so they totaled just 151 points in their next game. The Sparks on the other hand have yet to post consecutive 'over' results this season. Their two previous contests following an 'over' result totaled just 131 and 144 points. Take the under (10*).
|06-16-21||Mercury v. Sparks UNDER 154.5||80-85||Loss||-111||12 h 10 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm et on Wednesday.
This total has dropped from its opener and it's the right move in my opinion.
Phoenix has now lost three games in a row but has scored over 80 points in four of its last six contests. The Mercury don't have much of a margin for error offensively, however, with Brittney Griner and Skylar Diggins-Smith providing the bulk of their production. Few teams get less scoring off the bench. If there's a night where Diggins-Smith goes cold or Griner gets into foul trouble, the Mercury just aren't going to put up many points.
Los Angeles is in tough right now, missing a number of key players including the Ogwumike sisters and now Te'a Cooper as well due to a one-game suspension. The Sparks have been held to 71 points or less in three straight games, shooting no better than 36.8% from the field in any of those contests. If they're going to turn things around they'll need to step up their defensively play after allowing 80+ points in consecutive games. Note that in their last two home games (both victories) they allowed an identical 63 points and held the opposition to 34.3% and 33.9% shooting. Take the under (9*).
|06-15-21||Sky v. Lynx OVER 159||105-89||Win||100||12 h 8 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Minnesota at 9 pm et on Tuesday.
The return of Candace Parker has been just the spark the Sky needed to get back on track following a seven-game losing streak, reeling off back-to-back wins over the Indiana Fever - scoring 92 and 83 points in the process. The 'over' has now cashed in each of their last two games after the 'under' had hit in four of their last five. I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring affair here.
Minnesota has started rolling following a tough start to the season. The Lynx have won four of their last five games and enter Tuesday's contest having scored 80 points or more in four straight games. Like Chicago, Minnesota also dealt with injury issues earlier in the season The return of Napheesa Collier has certainly helped their cause in recent weeks. With that being said, Collier is coming off a 4-of-14 shooting effort in Saturday's win over the Sparks. Kayla McBride was also off the mark in that one, connecting on just 1-of-6 field goal attempts. Here, I look for both to bounce back and pace the Lynx offense.
The Lynx benefited greatly from catching the Sparks without the Ogwumike sisters on Saturday, holding Los Angeles to 64 points on 32.9% shooting in that blowout win (we won with the Lynx on that night). Here, I expect them to have their hands full against a rejuvenated Sky squad led by Candace Parker.
Both of last year's meetings between these two teams found their way 'over' the total. Expect a similar story to unfold on Tuesday. Take the over (10*).
|06-13-21||Mystics v. Dream OVER 165.5||78-101||Win||100||6 h 53 m||Show|
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Washington and Atlanta at 3:30 pm et on Sunday.
I’ll keep my analysis fairly brief as Sunday is a travel day. If you’ve followed my plays regularly you know that I’m fairly high on both of these teams right now, even with the Dream coming off consecutive lopsided losses at the hands of the defending champion Seattle Storm. Washington has gotten healthier and we’ve seen the duo of Myisha Hines-Allen and Ariel Atkins really take off. Atlanta is missing Chennedy Carter but the potential is there for the Dream offense to get going if Aari McDonald can round into form. With both teams eager to get rolling here and the Dream in particular looking to bounce back from consecutive subpar performances look for both to push the pace here. Take the over (10*).
|06-09-21||Fever v. Sky UNDER 161||76-92||Loss||-110||10 h 15 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Chicago at 8 pm et on Wednesday.
We haven't played many 'unders' in WNBA action this season but I will on Wednesday night as the reeling Fever head to Chicago to take on the Sky. Indiana has been a complete disaster this season, winning just once in 10 games - that coming earlier in the campaign against a struggling Mystics squad. The Fever have now shot worse than 40% from the field in four straight games and don't figure to bust out against an improving Sky defense that has held five of their last six opponents to 42.9% shooting or worse. While Indiana has struggled defensively, it's certainly worth noting that it has faced a brutal schedule lately, with its last four games coming on the road against Las Vegas (twice), Seattle and Los Angeles. It catches a bit of a scheduling break here as the Sky have yet to get things sorted this season with key players in and out of the lineup. Chicago is expected to welcome Candace Parker to the floor for the first time this season on Wednesday but how much she'll contribute in her first game back remains to be seen. Chicago has proven to be one of the league's weakest offensive teams so far this season, shooting 41.2% or worse from the field in all nine games to date. Take the under (10*).
|06-08-21||Lynx v. Mystics OVER 166||81-85||Push||0||10 h 37 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Washington at 7 pm et on Tuesday.
We've cashed with the 'over' in each of Minnesota's last two games. In fact, we've won in three straight Lynx games, also hitting with them in their overtime victory over Connecticut three games back. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the 'over' as the oddsmakers continue to have a tough time adjusting these WNBA totals. The Lynx have scored 186 points over their last two games and figure to stay hot against a vulnerable Washington defense that has allowed six straight opponents to shoot better than 43% from the field, giving up 86 points or more in four of those contests. The good news for Washington is that its offense has come around, scoring over 80 points in three straight games. The Mystics might just have something in Myisha Hines-Allen, who has poured in 58 points in her last three games, while recording a double-double in all three contests. Ariel Atkins has also stepped up in the absence of Elena Delle-Donne, contributing at least 30 minutes in three straight games while scoring 67 points over that stretch (note that she is questionable to play on Tuesday due to a back injury). Meanwhile, the Lynx are getting production from all over the court right now. They had five players score in double-figures last time out as they dropped 100 points on the Dream. Kayla McBride continues to get better acclimated with the offense with each passing game and comes off a season-high 19 points last time out. Napheesa Collier has provided a big boost as well since returning to the lineup, averaging over 16 points per game to go along with four assists per game. Note that Minnesota has allowed north of 80 points in both previous road games this season, allowing the opposition to shoot 46.8% from the field. Take the over (10*).
|06-06-21||Dream v. Lynx OVER 163||80-100||Win||100||7 h 25 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Minnesota at 7 pm et on Sunday.
We won with the 'over' in this matchup on Friday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play in Sunday's rematch. I noted on Friday that Atlanta was waiting for highly-touted draft pick Aari McDonald to get going offensively and we finally saw it last time out as the shot 5-of-12 from the field and scored a career-high 15 points. Even with Chennedy Carter sidelined, the Dream still have plenty of scoring options and should find continued success offensively on Sunday. The Lynx got off to a slow start this season but have gotten back on track over their last couple of games and should certainly be encouraged by Friday's performance, in which Napheesa Collier poured in 26 points in just her third game back in the lineup. Kayla McBride also turned in one of her best performances of the young season, scoring 17 points on 6-of-13 shooting. This has the makings of another relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*).
|06-04-21||Dream v. Lynx OVER 162.5||Top||84-86||Win||100||10 h 6 m||Show|
WNBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Minnesota at 8 pm et on Friday.
Minnesota has yet to break 80 points in a game this season but I look for that streak to end on Friday night as the Lynx host the Atlanta Dream. It's really only a matter of time before this supremely-talented Lynx squad gets rolling offensively. Offseason acquisition Kayla McBride has yet to really emerge as the scoring threat she was in Las Vegas but it's coming. Note that she has still managed to score in double-figures in four of five games this season. Meanwhile, they welcomed back Napheesa Collier two games back and she's contributed 25 points to go along with eight assists since returning. Here, I expect the Lynx to take advantage of a below-average Dream defense. Atlanta checks in off three straight 'over' results even though the most recent was aided by overtime last Saturday in New York (we won with the Dream in that game). Atlanta's offense has slowly come around this season and while losing sharp-shooting guard Chennedy Carter to injury hurts, they are expected to welcome back big offseason acquisition Cheyenne Parker from Covid protocols on Friday. I also expect highly-touted draft pick Aari McDonald, who has struggled in the early stages of her WNBA career, to pick up some of the slack, likely receiving more playing time in Carter's absence. Note that three of the last five meetings in this series have gone 'over' the total, including the most recent matchup which reached 167 points on August 28th of last year. Take the over (10*).
|05-27-21||Wings v. Dream OVER 163.5||Top||95-101||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
WNBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Atlanta at 7 pm et on Thursday.
I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair between the Wings and Dream on Thursday night. Dallas has suffered back-to-back losses since opening the season with a blowout win over the Sparks in Los Angeles. The Wings offense continues to perform at a reasonably high level, however, scoring 94, 97 and 81 points through three games. Arike Ogunbowale is an underappreciated star in the making, having scored 52 points over the last two games. Marina Mabrey has also stepped up over the last two games, pouring in 48 points. Here, the Wings should be able to get rolling once again versus a middle of the pack Atlanta defense. While the Dream check in eighth in offensive rating that's largely due to a slow start to the season. They're coming off back-to-back victories, scoring 83 and 90 points in the process. The return of Tiffany Hayes has sparked the charge and she's coming off a 26-point effort in a win over Chicago. I'm still waiting for the backcourt tandem of Chennedy Carter and rookie Aari McDonald to go off. McDonald is coming off her best performance of the young season having scored nine points in 17 minutes against Chicago. Dallas ranks in the bottom half of the WNBA in terms of defensive rating and I expect the Dream to take advantage and push the pace here. Take the over (10*).
|05-21-21||Dream v. Fever OVER 160.5||83-79||Win||100||9 h 5 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Indiana at 7 pm et on Friday.
We won with the 'over' in the Dream's last game - an 85-77 loss to the Sky. Here, I'll go back to the well with the same play as Atlanta hits the road to face winless Indiana. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 6-0 with the Fever coming off a loss by 15 points or more over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 181.4 points. While the Dream did make positive strides offensively in their last game, scoring 77 points in a losing effort, there's still plenty of room for improvement. Chennedy Carter has been terrific but Atlanta is still waiting for highly-touted draft pick Aari McDonald to come alive. She's been held to a single point in her first two WNBA games but I do expect her to figure it out sooner rather than later. Note that Indiana checks in 10th in the WNBA in defensive rating this season, which should open up some opportunities for the Dream here. On the flip side, I expect Indiana to afford itself plenty of second chance looks here, ranking third in the league in rebounding percentage compared to the Dream's 11th. Last year's two meetings between these teams produced 170 and 192 points. Expect more of the same here. Take the over (10*).