Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-13-23 | Red Wings v. Canucks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
10* UNDER Wings/Canucks (TOW) No need to overthink this one. Vancouver is just 1-3 in its last four. It's coming off four straight "overs" in a row. It is coming off a 5-2 loss at Detroit. Note that the Canucks have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a road loss of three or more goals against an opponent. I look for Vancouver to double down defensively here as it tries to avenge that road setback vs. the Wings. Detroit has won two in a row. It's been trading high-scoring games with lower-scoring ones over its last seven outings, and we can expect that pattern to continue here; all signs point to a much more defensive affair here on the West Coast, so the play is indeed on the "under!" AAA Sports |
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02-13-23 | West Virginia v. Baylor UNDER 148.5 | Top | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
10* UNDER WVU/Baylor (TOW) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here in what I anticpate will be a competitive, but ultimlately lower-scoring defensive battle. WVU is just 2-6 on the road. It's coming off a 94-60 loss at Texas. I think the Mountaineers will struggle to score here on the road as well in this difficult venue. Note as well that WVU has seen the total to "over" the number in five straight, which is indeed signifciant to note, as the Mountaineers have seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. Baylor is 12-2 a thome. It comes in off three straight SU/ATS victories in a row. They're coming off a 72-68 win at TCU and I expect another strong defensive performance here as well at home; this number is a little high, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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02-13-23 | Pelicans v. Thunder UNDER 237 | Top | 103-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
10* UNDER Pels/Thunder (TOW) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games, but I believe those trends come to an end here tonight. New Orleans just saw its three-game win streak come to an end in its 118-107 home loss to Cleveland. It's seen the total go OVER in four of its last five. The Pels did beat OKC 128-125 in OT back in December, but note that the Thunder have seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five when trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss as a favorite against an opponent. The Thunder are coming off back-to-back high-scoring road victories as underdogs. They've seen the total go OVER in four straight. All of these facts though have only helped in driving tonight's total a few points higher than it normally would/should be. Expect a more defensive affair this time around; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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02-12-23 | Chiefs v. Eagles UNDER 50 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 316 h 5 m | Show |
10* UNDER Chiefs/Eagles (TOM) I think this Philadelphia defensive line has a chance to go down as one of the best in history. Especially if the Eagles win this game. The first thing you think about when you think about these two teams is the two men under center. Most would think that with Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts as QB's, that we'd be in store for a high-scoring "shootout," but that's simply not going to be the case in my opinion. Both Hurts and Mahomes have been injured in the Playoffs. They do get two weeks off to prepare, but I believe these underrated defenses will benefit the most with the extra time. Each offense will be committed to the run, as it'll be the only way to keep these aggressive pass rushing units honest. Another big factor here sees two of the league's best "rushing QB's" going head-to-head. When you add it all up, I say this O/U line is a few points higher than it should be; the play is indeed on the "under!" AAA Sports |
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02-12-23 | Alexander Volkanovski v. Islam Makhachev OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 36 h 5 m | Show |
10* OVER (UFC TOY) Two gritty, tough fighters. I don't see this one ending any time soon. If one of these two fighters gets a "KO" or submission, it'll be similar to what we saw with Leon Edwards and Kamaru Usman, right near the end of the fight. Otherwise, the skill and experience each brings to the table is unmatched. Keeping this one simple, as I believe these key factors will indeed see this match go the distance; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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02-11-23 | Washington v. Washington State UNDER 136.5 | Top | 51-56 | Win | 100 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
10* UNDER Washington/Washington State (PAC 12 TOY) This one sets up really well to be a very defensive affair. Washington is 13-12 overall this year, but just 1-7 on the road. Washington State is only 10-15 this season, but it's 7-3 at home. An interesting matchup, but one that screams defensive battle to me. Washington has lost three straight, and that's important to note here, because the Huskies have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five after three or more straight losses in a row. Washington State has lost two straight on the road. It's seen the total go "over" the number in three straight, and that's also significant for us to note here, as the Cougars have seen the total go "under" the number in five of their last six after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Washington State averages 67.4 PPG, while Washington averages only 69.7. Expect a tight, lower-scoring defensive battle; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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02-10-23 | Hornets v. Celtics OVER 229.5 | Top | 116-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
10* OVER Hornets/Celtics (ASSASSIN) Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring contests of late, but I believe those trends will end this evening. Charlotte comes in off five straight ATS/SU losses. That's significant to note here though as the Hornets have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten after five or more straight losses in a row. The Hornets have also seen the total go "under" in five straight games, and that's important to note as well, as Charlotte has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. The Hornets also play with revenge after falling 130-118 at home to Boston in January. Note as well that Charlotte has seen the total go "over" the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss against an opponet. Boston averages 117.4 PPG, ranked fourth overall. It's seen the total go "under" in three straight. This O/U line is now a few points lower than it normally would/should be; the play is indeed on the "over!" AAA Sports |
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02-10-23 | Kent State v. Buffalo UNDER 151 | Top | 72-65 | Win | 100 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
10* UNDER Kent/Buffalo (MAC TOM) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here on Friday. Kent is 19-5, but is just 6-5 on the road. Buffalo is only 12-12, but it's a much more respectable 9-3 at home. Kent averages 75.1 PPG, while Buffalo averages 80.2. The last time these teams played though, Kent controlled the action in the 74-68 victory in late January, the total staying well "under" the posted number of 151.5. Expect a similar, lower-scoring defensive battle here as well; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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02-10-23 | VfL Wolfsburg v. Schalke 04 OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -119 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
10* OVER Wolfsburg/Schalke (Bundesliga TOY) Both teams come in highly motivated for a victory here, and I believe this sense of extreme competition will result in plenty of balls finding the back of the net. Schalke is out to snap a run of five straight winless league matches. The Wolves can empahthize, as they've lost three straight across all competitions. Schalke will finally have an opportunity get some shots on net vs. Wolfsburg after recent 0-0 draws vs. FC Koln and Borussia Monchengladbach. All signs point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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02-08-23 | Wild v. Stars OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
10* OVER Wild/Stars (CENTRAL TOY) Everything points to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later. Minnesota has seen the total go "under" the number in four strraight. It's off a listless 3-2 loss at Arizona as a -233 favorite. I expect a bounce-back performance here in this difficult road venue. The Stars have seen the total go "under" the number in six straight after their 3-2 shootout win over the Ducks to open up the second half. Note though that Dallas has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. Most nights these teams play a very trapping, defensive style of hockey, but all signs point to a very wide-open "shootout" here between these divisional foes on Wednesday in my opinion; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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02-08-23 | Texas Tech v. Oklahoma State UNDER 135 | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
10* UNDER Texas Tech/Oklahoma State. I like the way this one sets up to be a defensive battle. Texas Tech is 2-1 in its last three, but it's coming off an 89-62 loss at Baylor. The Red Raiders have seen the total go "over" the number in three straight, but note that they've seen the total go "under" in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Oklahoma State has won three straight, but SU and ATS. Most recently it was a 79-73 victory over TCU. The Cowboys have now seen the total go "over" in four straight. This is the first meeting of the year between these schools, but last March when they faced off, Oklahoma State won by a score of 52-51. The overall situation, combined with the above listed trends make the "under" the correct call in this one! AAA Sports |
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02-08-23 | Pistons v. Cavs OVER 222 | Top | 85-113 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
10* OVER Pistons/Cavs (Central TOY) This one sets up realy well to be more of a wide-open "shootout," rather than a slower-paced defensive affair in my opinion. Detroit is just 2-8 in its last ten. It's coming off back-to-back losses. Most recently it was a 111-99 setback to the Celtics. Note though that Detroit has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten after a SU/ATS loss in which it was held to 99 or less points in. The Pistons also play with revenge after falling 102-94 to the Cavs back in November (however, note that Detroit has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a loss against an opponent in which it was held to 99 or less point in as well.) Cleveland enters off three straight quality wins. I say it keeps the momentum rolling here. It's off a 114-91 win over Washington, but note that the Cavs have seen the total go "over" the number in four of their last five off a SU/ATS victory in which they held their opponent to 95 or less points in. The situation, combined with these strong trends all point to the "over" as the correct call in this one! AAA Sports |
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02-07-23 | Wolves v. Nuggets UNDER 235.5 | Top | 112-146 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
10* UNDER Wolves/Nuggets (BLOOD-BATH) These teams just played against each other and the Wolves won by a score of 128-98. That total "pushed" on that one, but I expect more of a defensive affair here. Note that Denver has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after a SU/ATS loss in which it was held to 99 or fewer points in. Minnesota has now been trading wins/losses over its last five games. I expect a much more defensive battle in the immediate rematch here; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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02-05-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 230.5 | Top | 98-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
10* UNDER Nuggets/Wolves (ASSASSIN) Denver is coming off three straight wins, including a 128-108 victory over ATL just last night. It's seen the total go "over" the number in four straight, but note that the Hawks have seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last ten still after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Look for Denver to try and slow the pace down throughout here. Minnesota is off the 127-120 home loss as a favorite to Orlando, but note that the Wolves have seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite. This number is high, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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02-05-23 | Reims v. AJ Auxerre UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
10* UNDER Stade Reims/Auxerre (Ligue 1 TOY) Reims is in form while Auxerre is struggling right now. I look for Reims to sit back and wait for Auxerre to make the first mistake, and because of that, I'm expecting a lower-scoring "under" in this one. Reims is currently on a 13-game unbeaten streak. Last weekend Will Still led his team to a 1-1 tie with Paris Saint-Germain. Auxerre has lost seven straight. Auxerre plays better at home than on the road, but it hasn't found the back of the net in its last two in front of the home town crowd. I think it'll struggle again as well here; this one has "under" written all over it! AAA Sports |
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02-04-23 | West Ham United v. Newcastle United UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
10* UNDER Westham/Newcastle (EPL TOW) Both teams really need a win here, for entirely different reasons. Because of that though, I'm expecting a "war of attrition" here, where each sits back and waits for the other to make the first mistake. Newcastle United is looking to strengthen its spot in the Top 4, while the Hammers are out to win B2B games for just the second time this season. The Magpies are off a 2-1 win at St. Mary's. They've been fantastic defensively, posting a league-high 12 clean sheets, while also not conceding a goal in their last six top-flight matches. Westham beat Everton 2-0 last week, and then also beat Derby County at the FA Cup on Monday night. Expect the Hammers to carry over their recent up-tick in defensive play as well. All things considered, I think this total is high; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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02-03-23 | Magic v. Wolves OVER 231 | Top | 127-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
10* OVER Magic/Wolves (ASSASSIN) Orlando went 1-1 at Philadelphia earlier in the week, and the total went "under" the number in each. Minnesota has won four of its last five, and it's seen the total go "under" in five straight. But that's important for us to note here, as the Wolves have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. Look for this non-conference game to be less intense defensively and expect this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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02-02-23 | James Madison v. Old Dominion OVER 138 | Top | 78-73 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
10* OVER JMU/ODU (SUN BELT TOM) James Madison is 15-8, while ODU is 13-9. These are two teams in need of a victory here, and I expect this competitive like atmosphere to produce a much higher final combined score than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. James Madison actually averages 82.9 PPG, and it has seven players averaging between 7.9 and 13 PPG. ODU averages 67.5, but after playing to seven straight "unders," I feel this O/U line is now just a bit too low for the home side, as note that the Monarchs have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. This number is a little low, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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02-01-23 | Hawks v. Suns UNDER 230.5 | Top | 132-100 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
10* UNDER Hawks/Suns (NON-CONF. TOM) I feel there are enough situational factors that point to this being more of a defensive affair, than a wide-open "shootout" to pull the trigger on a big play on the "under" in this one. The Hawks have now seen the total go "over" the number in three straight after their most recent 129-125 road loss at Portland. That's significant for us to note though, as Atlanta has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Phoenix has seen the total go "over" in two straight. It hits the road for five straight on the East Coast starting in Boston on Friday and I say the home side gets caught "looking ahead." Look for this non-conference game to be less intense offensively; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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02-01-23 | Illinois-Chicago v. Illinois State UNDER 136.5 | Top | 62-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
10* UNDER Illinois Chicago/Illinois State. A couple of 9-14 bottom feeders collide here in the Missouri Valley Conference on Wednesday night and in my opinion, I expect points to be at a premium. Each side has played to several higher-scoring games of late, but we can expect those trends to end here. The Flames only average 67 PPG, while allowing 70.7. They catch a break here today on the defensive end facing Illinois State, which averages just 66.2 PPG, while allowing 68.6. When these teams faced off back on December 28th, it was UIC which came away with the 55-51 win as a one-point favorite. Look for these hungry and evenly matched teams to play to a similar, lower-scoring "under" here as well! AAA Sports |
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01-31-23 | Northwestern v. Iowa UNDER 150 | Top | 70-86 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
10* UNDER Northwestern/Iowa (BIG TEN TOY) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting a much more defensive affair this evening. Both teams have done decently to this point. Northwestern is 15-5, while Iowa is 13-8. The Wildcats enter on a three-game win skein. Most recently they beat Minnesota by a score of 81-61. I'm expecting a similar final combined score here as well, as Northwestern only averages 69.8 PPG, but makes up for it on the defensive end, holding opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 46.8 percent, ranked 45th. So expect the visitors to slow this one down at all costs. Iowa averages 81.3 PPG, but it's been trading high-scoring "overs" with low-scoring "unders" over its last six games, and off a 93-82 home win over Rutgers last time out, all signs point to this pattern continuing. Expect a more methodical pace here; the play is indeed on the "under!" AAA Sports |
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01-30-23 | Lakers v. Nets UNDER 231.5 | Top | 104-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
10* UNDER Lakers/Nets (NON-CONF TOY) The Lakers have been trading high-scoring games with lower-scoring ones over their last five games, and off a 125-121 OT loss in Boston, I'm expecting this pattern to continue. And with a game at the Knicks tomorrow night, the last thing that LA wants to do here is turn this into a shootout with the Nets. Brooklyn lhas seen the total go "over" the number in three straight, and that's something we need to take note of here, as the Nets have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. With a much more important game at Boston on the 1st of February, I say the home side also gets caught "looking ahead" here. Boston woni 116-103 in LA back in November and the total sailed OVER the number of 2l8 in that one. I believe we'll see a similar final combined score here as well; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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01-30-23 | Magic v. 76ers UNDER 233.5 | Top | 119-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
10* UNDER Magic/76ers (EAST-COAST EXPRESS) Both teams have been playing to some higher-scoring affairs of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Orlando had won three of four before a two-game losing streak. It's coming off a l28-109 home loss to the Bulls. It's been trading high-scoring games with lower-scoring ones over its last six games and I expect that pattern to continue here. The last time these teams played, the 76ers managed the 133-103 win, which is important for us to note here, as Orlando has also seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss of 25 or more points vs. an opponent. This is the start of two straight between the teams here in Philly, and I expect a much more defensive affair than what the bookmakers are trying to lead us to believe; the play is indeed on the "under!" AAA Sports |
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01-29-23 | Bengals v. Chiefs UNDER 47 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 150 h 14 m | Show |
10* UNDER Bengals/Chiefs (CONF. CHAMP TOY) The first thing you think about when you think about these two teams are the two men under center. Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes are two of the most electrifying QB's in the league right now. Both of these teams are among the league leaders on offense, but in my opinion, I expect more of a defensive affair in this one. The injury to Mahomes has like 80% of the early public money on the Bengals. I'm staying away from choosing a side in this one, but I think the last thing that KC can afford to do now is turn this into a "shootout" with Burrow and the Bengals. Look for the experienced Mahomes to control his offense with short crossing routes and over the top dumps. Both of these defenses are fantastic as well, and are just overshadowed by these two polarizing pivots. Look for this hard-fought game to result in a lower-scoring "under!" AAA Sports |
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01-29-23 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Cleveland State UNDER 137.5 | Top | 72-78 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
10* UNDER IUPUI/Cleveland State (HORIZON LEAGUE TOY) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. IUPUI is just 3-19 after its latest 81-75 loss at Purdue Fort Wayne. It only averages 63.1 PPG, but somehow it's seen the total go "over" in four straight. Note though that IUPUI has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. It plays with revenge here after an 89-54 loss at home to Cleveland State two weeks ago. The Vikings are 13-9 after a 79-74 win over Purdue Fort Wayne. Despite that victory, note though that Cleveland State still only averages just 70 PPG. I'm expecting a much more defensive affair here in the rematch; this number is a little high, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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01-29-23 | Heat v. Hornets OVER 221.5 | Top | 117-122 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
10* OVER Heat/Hornets. Everything points to a higher-scoring shootout here in my opinion. Neither team has played to many high-scoring affairs of late, but that's only helped in driving this O/U line a few points lower than it normally would/should be. Miami has definitely been playing better of late, having won four of its last five, including three straight. It's seen the total go "under" in four straight, and that's significant to note for us, as llthe Heat have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Charlotte has won three of its last five. It's coming off a 111-96 home win over the Bulls, which is significant for us to note as well, as the Hornets have seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five off a SU/ATS home win as an underdog and in which they held their opponent to 99 or fewer points in. They also play with revenge here after a 132-115 loss at Miami back in November. I expect a similar wide-open, high-scoring "shootout" here as well; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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01-29-23 | CS Bakersfield v. Hawaii UNDER 118.5 | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
10* UNDER CSU Bakersfield/Hawaii (BIG WEST TOY) Two teams on different ends of the spectrum. CSU Bakersfield is 6-13, and Hawaii is 15-6. The Roadrunners are off a 79-58 home loss to UC Davis, and I think they'll struggle to reach that many points here on the road. Note that they average 58.3 PPG. Hawaii only averages 68. The Warriors are coming off a tight 65-64 home loss to UC Santa Barbara. These two teams play at a couple of the slowest paces in the nation. The fact of the matter is that the Roadrunners haven't posted more than 58 points in six straight games. Expect a slower-paced defensive affair, one that falls well "under" the number once the final buzzer sounds! AAA Sports |
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01-28-23 | Raptors v. Blazers UNDER 228.5 | Top | 123-105 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
10* UNDER Raptors/Blazers (EXPRESS) Toronto is off the 129-117 road loss at Golden State just last night. The last thing the Raptors can afford to do here is to get into a "shootout" with Damian Lillard and the Blazers. Portland has won two straight blowouts at home, winning 147-127 over San Antonio, before a 134-124 victory over Utah. Clearly, both of those totals eclipsed the posted number. Despite that though, the Blazers still only average 114 PPG, ranked 17th. These teams played at the beginning of the month North of the border and the Raptors won by a score of 117-105, and the total stayed "under" the number of 226.5. I look for more of a slower-paced defensive affair here between these non-conference opponents, similar to their last matchup; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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01-27-23 | Grizzlies v. Wolves OVER 237.5 | Top | 100-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
10* OVER Grizzlies/Wolves (TOTAL EXPRESS) These teams can score with the best of them, and they usually don't concentrate too much on the defensive end. That's led to their totals typically being sky-high for most games. That said, each has been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to finally end here this evening. The Wolves have won three of their last four, but they'll have their hands full here with a revenge-minded Grizzlies team that fell 109-101 at home to Minnesota back in November. While that game fell well "under" the total, note that Memphis has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss against an opponent in which it was the favorite. That was at the start of the season, but now these offenses are rolling. Expect them to keep rolling here and watch this total eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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01-27-23 | Manhattan v. Niagara OVER 126 | Top | 62-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
10* OVER Manhattan/Niagara (ASSASSIN) I like the way this one sets up to be an offensive contest. Each team has been playing to several "unders" of late, but that's only now helped in contributing to this O/U line being a few points lower than it normally would/should be. When these teams played on January 8th, Manhattan upset Niagara by a score of 64-59 as a 3.5-point underdog. The total in that contest stayed "under" the postd number of 128, but note that Niagara has seen the total go "over" the number in ten of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss as a favorite against an opponent. Look for the home side to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish, and then expect this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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01-26-23 | Arkansas State v. Southern Miss UNDER 132.5 | Top | 57-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
10* UNDER Arkansas State/USM (SUN BELT TOY) All signs point to this being a much more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Arkansas State is coming off seven straight SU losses. It's seen the total go "over" the number in three straight, including in its 87-78 OT home loss to Marshall. Note though that Arkansas State has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Southern Miss has played to four straight "overs," but it still only averages 75.9 PPG, ranked 80th. Look for the conference leader to clamp down defensively and control the tempo of this contest; this number is high, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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01-22-23 | Jets v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
10* Over Jets/Flyers (TOTAL BOB) Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring "unders" of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening in this one. Winnipeg is off the 5-1 win at Ottawa last night and I look for it to keep the foot on the gas in the second game of the back-to-back. The Flyers are off the 2-1 road win at Detroit yesterday, and I expect the exact same thing from Philadelphia, as fatigue goes out the window for each side here on Sunday. This is the first matchup of the year between the clubs, but look for this non-conference game to be less intense defensively, and more wide-open; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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01-22-23 | Cowboys v. 49ers UNDER 47 | Top | 12-19 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
10* UNDER Cowboys/49ers (TOTAL ASSASSIN) Two really good teams here. The first thing you think about when you think about either is the offense though. Brock Purdy and the weapons around him or impressive, but it was the 49ers' defense which sustained the team early and which is the unsung here of this team. The same can be said about Dak Prescott and his offense. However, it's been the Dallas defense which has been consistently under-rated this season. This is going to be a great game, but one that's decided by field position, by which team protects the ball, and by the men in the "trenches" on both sides of the field; this number is high, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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01-22-23 | Wichita State v. SMU UNDER 136 | Top | 71-69 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
10* UNDER Wichita State/SMU (AAC TOY) The bottom line here for this one, is that both teams are struggling to score right now, and their defensive metrics far outweigh their offensive numbers. Wichita State's top player only averages 12 PPG. But the Shockers like to play at a slow pace, ranked 304th in pace out of 363 teams in the country. SMU's tempo is only ranked 143rd. SMU will look to utilize its size on offense. That means running the offense through the big men, and that means setting up a lot of "half court sets" while on offense. When you add it all up, this number is indeed high; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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01-21-23 | Jaguars v. Chiefs UNDER 52 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 122 h 29 m | Show |
10* UNDER Jags/Chiefs (DIVISIONAL TOY) I had the Jaguars last weekend. Do I feel "lucky?!" Of course I do! That said, I don't see lightning "striking twice" for Jacksonville this weekend. Kansas City is 7-1 at home and it scores 29.2 PPG, which is ranked No. 1. I think though that the Chiefs defense is vastly underrated. Especially in the playoffs, and especially at home. I have been a big fan of what Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson have done this year, but I think the "fairy tale" ends this week. I say a big letdown is in order here. Look for the Chiefs to "control" this game and to cruise to a lower-scoring victory; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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01-20-23 | Avalanche v. Canucks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 118 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
10* UNDER Avs/Canucks (ASSASSIN) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Colorado comes in off three straight wins. It's now 23-17-2-1, but it still averages 3.07 GPG, ranked 21st. Vancouver is just 18-23-2-1 and it averages 3.36 GPG, ranked ninth. The Canucks have been struggling of late though, having lost eight of their last ten. A struggling offense can be mainly blamed. Colorado plays with revenge here after a 4-2 loss here at the start of the month, and that's significant to note in fact, as the Avs have seen the total go "under" the number in five of their last six in trying to avenge a two goals or greater loss against an opponent. Expect a competitive contest, but a tighter defensive one than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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01-20-23 | Toledo v. Buffalo UNDER 168 | Top | 86-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
10* UNDER Toledo/Buffalo (MAC TOW) Toledo is 12-6, while Buffalo is 9-9. That includes though going a near-perfect 8-1 at home. The Rockets are coming off a 90-75 win over Ohio in their latest contest, but I believe they'll have a much more difficult time moving the ball here on the road. The Rockets weakness comes on defense where they're allowing an average of 78.6 PPG. But that defense catches a break here facing a Bulls' offense that averages 79.9 PPG. The Bulls are coming off a blowout win as well, smashing Bowling Green 100-71. Both teams play at incredibly fast paces, but the school that plays the best defense is going to be the one that comes out on top here. These are two really good offenses, and poor defenses, and this is also a really high total. I see enough things "going wrong" to keep this total well "under" the number; and that's the play! AAA Sports |
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01-19-23 | Portland State v. Weber State OVER 140.5 | Top | 68-84 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
10* OVER Portland State/Weber State (BIG SKY TOY) For a number of different reasons, I think this total is low. Both teams enter hungry for a win here at 8-10. Portland State will be particularly eager to return to action after a tight 69-67 home loss to Northern Colorado as a five-point favorite (note though that Portland State has seen the total go "over" the number in four of its last five after a SU/ATS home loss in which it was the favorite and in which it was held to 69 or fewer points in.) Portland State does average 77.7 PPG though. Weber State will have to match pace here, as it comes in averaging 66.1 PPG. It's seen the total go "under" in four straight, but that's only helped in driving today's O/U line a few points lower than it normally would/should be. When these teams played last year, Portland State won by a score of 81-75. I predict a similar final combined score here as well; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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01-19-23 | Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 235 | Top | 118-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
10* UNDER Warriors/Celtics (TOTAL EXPRESS) We can expect a tight, lower-scoring affair here in my opinion for a couple of different reasons. The last time these teams played was in Golden State and the Warriors won by a score of 123-107 as a 2.5-point dog, the total staying well "under" the posted number. I'm expecting a similar tight defensive affair here. Golden State has seen the total go "over" in four straight, which is signficant to note as the Warriors have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. With a game at Cleveland tomorrow, I say the Warriors save some "gas" as well. The Celtics have won four straight. They're coming off the 130-118 road win at Charlotte. Note though that they've seen the total go "under" the number in five of their last six in trying to avenge a road loss against an opponent of ten or more points. This total is high, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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01-18-23 | Oregon v. California UNDER 132.5 | Top | 87-58 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
10* UNDER Oregon/Cal (PAC 12 TOM) These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here this evening in what I anticipate will be a much tighter, and ultimatley lower-scoring defensive affair. Oregon is 10-8, but just 1-2 on the road. Cla is only 3-15 and just 3-8 at home. Oregon has seen the total go "over" in two straight games, including an 87-68 home victory over Arizona as a four-point underdog. Despite that though, the Ducks still only average 69.6 PPG. After that emotional upset victory, I predict some regression here. Cal averages only 61.8 PPG. It's now lost two straight, falling 66-51 at WSU, and 81-78 in OT at Washington last time out. I have a hard time seeing either side reaching its seasonal offensive average; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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01-18-23 | St. Louis v. Loyola-Chicago UNDER 142.5 | Top | 76-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
10* UNDER Saint Louis/Loyola Chicago (TOTAL BOB) The Saint Louis Billikens are 12-6 and the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers are 6-11 and I'm expecting a very defensive affair. The Billikens come to town injured, with several key players sidelined. They'are also just 2-3 on the road. Saint Louis averages 76.6 PPG, while the the Ramblers average only 67.6. Loyola Chicago is coming off an 86-55 loss at Saint Joseph's, and I expect an even smaller final combined score in this contest. Look for a much tigher, and ultimatley lower-scoring battle here, the play is indeed on the "under!" AAA Sports |
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01-17-23 | Houston v. Tulane UNDER 148.5 | Top | 80-60 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
10* Houston/Tulane UNDER (AAC TOW) The Cougars are 17-1, but I still think they'll want to body up on Tulane here and turn it into more of a defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Most recently they're coming off an 83-77 win over USF at home. The Green Wave are 12-5, and they're off a 77-69 home win over UCF. Houston is very average offensively with 75.9 PPG, ranked 96th, but their defense is ranked No. 1 overall, conceding just 52.9 PPG. Tulane is averaging 81.9 PPG, while allowing 73.8. Suffice it to say, the Wave have yet to face a defense like Houston's. With the visiting side playing full and half court pressure throughout this contest, I'm expecting the total to say "under" the number! AAA Sports |
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01-16-23 | Suns v. Grizzlies UNDER 226.5 | Top | 106-136 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
10* UNDER Suns/Grizzlies (WEST-CONF TOW) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting a much tighter defensive affair in this one. hoenix is just 7-16 on the road. It's coming off B2B road losses at Denver and Minnesota. It beat Memphis 125-108 at home in December, but with two nights off followed by a five-game homestand, I believe the visitors could get caught "looking ahead" here. Note that Memphis has seen the total go "under" the number in ten of its last 13 in trying to avenge a road loss against an opponent of 15 or more points. Memphis has also seen the total go OVER the number in six straight games, which is signficant to note as the Grizz have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in five of their last seven after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. This number is a little high, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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01-15-23 | Ravens v. Bengals UNDER 40.5 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
10* UNDER (TOTAL ASSASSIN) With Skylar Thompson "managing" this game for the Ravens, Baltimore will look to limit his chances to make mistakes. That means adopting a run first attack while on offense. It also means a lot of over the top passes in short yardage situations. The key for the Ravens success today will be in if they can keep the ball out of Joe Burrows hands. The Bengals themselves have an underrated run game, and defense. This total opened at 43.5 and it's since dropped. I'm following that line movement here though, as I'm expecting a very low-scoring, tight defensive battle; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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01-15-23 | Marist v. Niagara UNDER 124.5 | Top | 66-64 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 34 m | Show |
10* UNDER Marist/Niagara (MAAC TOM) For a number of different reasons, I think this will be a very defensive affair. Marist is just 6-9 this year, iincluding 2-4 on the road. The Foxes are off B2B wins though, most recently winning 76-58 at Canisius as 3.5-point underdogs. I say a predictable letdown is in order here; note that they still only average 63.3 PPG. The Purple Aces average slightly more at 65 PPG. I think they'll struggle to hit that average here today though. They've lost their last two games, falling 64-59 to Manhattan and 70-64 to Siena. They failed to reach their seasonal average in either of those contests either. Look for these two hungry teams to battle tough, and expect this total to stay well "under" the number once the final horn blares! AAA Sports |
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01-14-23 | 76ers v. Jazz UNDER 235.5 | Top | 118-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* UNDER 76ers/Jazz (EXPRESS) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect that to change here in his one finally. The 76ers have now seen the total go "over" the number in six straight after their latest 133-114 home loss to the Thunder (note though that the 76ers have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 off a SU/ATS home loss of 15 or more points.) Look for Philly to double down defensively after that humbling home setback last time out. The Jazz had seen the total go "over" the number in four straight before their last outing, as they pulled away for a 112-108 home win over the Magic, unable to cover the five-point spread though. I expect a similar sort of pace to this contest; this number is high, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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01-14-23 | Seahawks v. 49ers OVER 42.5 | Top | 23-41 | Win | 100 | 120 h 46 m | Show |
10* OVER Hawks/49ers (WILDCARD TOY) These teams played twice in the regular season, and San Francisco won each time. They won 27-7 in Week 2, and then 2l-13 in Week 15. Both games went "under" the number, but I'm anticipating some offense here finally. Seattle won its final two games of the regular season. If the Hawks are going to win this game, it's going to be on the arm of Gino Smith, who set the Hawks regular season record for most yards completed. He has plenty of weapons to throw too. The 49ers closed the season with eight straight wins. Their offense averages 26.5 PPG, which ranks sixth overall. While the first two games during the regular season went "under" the number, expect this faster-paced playoff affair to fly "over the posted total sooner, rather than later; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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01-13-23 | Devils v. Ducks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
10* UNDER Devils/Ducks (TOTAL EXPRESS) For a number of different reasons, I like how this non-conference contest sets up to be a lower-scoring defensive affair. The Ducks have seen the total go "over" the number in three straight after B2B losses, most recently falling 6-2 at home to Edmonton and 7-1 at home to Boston. Note though that Anaheim has seen the total "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. The Devils are huge favorites here, but after playing to three straight "overs," I look for New Jersey to play a much more defensive game here. When these teams played in Jersey at the start of the year, the Devils won by a score of 4-2. I expect an even lower-scoring contest here; the play is indeed on the "under!" AAA Sports |
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01-13-23 | VCU v. Dayton UNDER 130 | Top | 63-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
VCU/Dayton UNDER (A-10 TOY) This total isn't the largest one obviously, but it's still much too high in my opinion. For a number of different reasons, I expect this one to stay well below the posted number. VCU is 12-5, but just 1-3 on the road. The Rams average 71.1 PPG, while the Flyers average 68.5. Dayton is 12-5, including 9-0 at home so far. These teams are two of the best in the conference in most defensive categories. They matchup well against each other. This is a difficult spread to get a read on, but as far as the total is concerned, I'm expecting an absolute war from start to finish, with plenty of half and full court pressures throughout. Look for this highly-competitive affair to produce a lower-scoring "under!" AAA Sports |
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01-12-23 | Senators v. Coyotes OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
10* OVER Senators/Coyotes. For a couple of different situational reasons, I expect this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games, but I expect a wide-open "goal-fest" finally here in Arizona. The Senators are rare huge favorites on the road here. They're coming off back-to-back losses though, ost recently falling 3-0 at home to Nashville (note though that the Sens have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten off a shutout home loss.) Arizona has lost six straight. It plays with revenge here after a 6-2 loss in Ottawa back in October. I expect a similar wide-open, higher-scoring games here as well; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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01-11-23 | Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 239 | Top | 129-135 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
10* UNDER Spurs/Grizzlies (SOUTHWEST DIV TOM) I think this is a great situational play on the "under." These teams played here tow nights ago and the Grizzlies won by a sore of 121-113, the total sailing "over" the number of 233.5 in that one. Now tonight's total is significantly higher than that, but now a little too high in my estimation. Memphis has now seen the total go "over" the number in four straight, which is significant to note here in our case, as the Grizzlies have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. The Spurs have seen the total go OVER the number in nine of their last ten now. That said, San Antonio still only averages 112 PPG, which ranks 23rd in the league. With an upcoming international game agianst the Warriors on Friday, I expect the visitors to get caught "looking ahead" as well. This number is high, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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01-11-23 | Capitals v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
10* OVER Capitals/Flyers (ASSASSIN) From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up to a very explosive, high-scoring "shootout." Washington has been trading wins and losses over its last seven games. It's off the 1-0 win at home over Columbus. It's seen the total go "under" in three straight, which is significant to note here in our case, as the Capitals have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Philadelphia is playing its best hockey of the season, having won five of its last six. That includes a 4-0 victory at red hot Buffalo last time out. Philly plays with revenge here after a 4-1 defeat to the Capitals in December, which is also significant for us to note, as Philly has seen the total go "over" the number in five of its last six in trying to avenge a loss against an opponent in which it was held to one or less goals in. As I said off the top, from situational stand point, this one sets up great to be a high-scoring "over!" AAA Sports |
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01-09-23 | TCU v. Georgia UNDER 64 | Top | 7-65 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
10* UNDER (TOW) The Horned Frogs were 5-7 last year, and now here they are in the National Championship Game. While the Frogs got out to a fast start vs. Michigan, I htink the Bulldogs will be ready on the defensive end from the "get go." Why is Georgia such a big favorite here? The Bulldogs have superior talent throughout all three phases. NFL level talent. And they're much bigger in the trenches. The Bulldogs will be out to impose themselves here on the Horned Frogs. I'm not expecting a shootout. The exact opposite. Look for a run-heavy, slower-paced "under" i the National Championship Game this year! AAA Sports |
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01-07-23 | Bruins v. Sharks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
10* UNDER Bruins/Sharks (NON-CONF TOY) I base my picks on many different things. This particular one sets up well from a "situational" stand point in my opinion. The Sharks have seen the total go "over" the number in eight straight games. That includes in last night's 5-4 OT loss at Anaheim. I believe that fatigue will be a major factor here for the Sharks in the second game of the back-to-back. The Bruins aren't going to have to run up this score to win this game. That said, I'm not going to lay this road chalk either. The safter wager is on the total. The Bruins are at the Ducks tomorrow night as well, so they'll be saving some gas in the tank for that. As I said off the top, this one checks all the boxes from a situational stand point; this number is high, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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01-06-23 | Western Michigan v. Toledo UNDER 156.5 | Top | 74-102 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
10* WMU/Toledo UNDER (MAC TOY) WMU is 4-10, while Toledo is 9-5. The Rockets have won the MAC regular season title in each of the last two seasons, but this year's version seems a step behind. Note that both teams are still looking for its first conference win of the season. The Broncos only average 68.6 PPG, so the last thing they can do here is turn this into a "shootout" and expect to hang with the Rockets. WMU is terrible on the road, 0-7 so far. The Rockets come in somewhat complacent after winning 11 straight in this series. Toledo is averaging 84.9 PPG this year, but it won't need to run up the score here to win and control this contest from the ouset. The Rockets are actually off a poor 90-83 loss to Ball State here at home, so I expect them to double down defensively. For all the reasons listed above, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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01-04-23 | Devils v. Red Wings UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
10* UNDER Devils/Wings (TOTAL EXPRESS) The Devils are off a 5-4 shootout home loss to Carolina, but I'm expecting a much more defensive affair here in Detroit on Wednesday night. The Wings play with revenge here after losing 6-2 at New Jersey in October. That's significant to note here though as Detroit has seen the total go "under" the number in five of its last six in trying to avenge a three goals or greater road loss against an opponent. The Wings have won three of their last four and in my opinion, everything points to a much more defensive affair than this O/U line is suggesting tonight; this number is high, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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01-03-23 | Wizards v. Bucks OVER 226.5 | Top | 113-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
10* Wizards/Bucks OVER (NON-DIV TOM) Gambling on sports is all about uncovering "great situations." And when you combine that with some strong evidence from the past, that's when you are able to narrow things down and come up with a really strong opinion. THat's the case here. The Wizards are rolling right, winners of five in a row. That includes a 118-95 victory here in Milwaukee two nights ago. Note that the Bucks have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss against an opponent in which they were held to 99 or fewer points in. Whether Giannis plays or not tonight (he didn't last time for the Bucks), I'm expecting a much more wide-open pace to this one; for all the reasons listed above, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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01-02-23 | Heat v. Clippers UNDER 220.5 | Top | 110-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
10* UNDER Heat/Clippers (EAST-CONF TOW) I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the "under." Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games, but everything points to much more of a defensive affair here. Miami has seen the total go "over" the number in three of its last four. That includes in its first two road games here. Despite that though, the Heat still only average 109 PPG, which ranks 30th in the league. Off the 126-123 win at Utah, I expect a much more defensive affair here in La La Land. The Clippers have seen the total go "over" the number in five of their last, including in their lastest 131-130 loss at Indiana last time out. That was in regulation. 261 points is a lot of points. After this non-conference game, the Clippers have three whole nights off before the start of B2B at Denver and Minnesota. It's a bit of a trap game for the home side. The overall situation points to the "under" as the correct call! AAA Sports |
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01-02-23 | Utah v. Penn State OVER 52 | Top | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 627 h 29 m | Show |
10* OVER Penn State/Utah (BOWL TOY) It's the "Granddaddy of 'Em All," with the Big Ten facing off against the Pac 12. Penn State brings in a great offense led by veteran QB Sean Clifford, who is playing his final game. He's aided by dynamic RB Nicholas Singleton, who is averaging 6.3 yards per carry. The Nittany Lions are going to have to be sharp offensively facing this "on fire" Utah offense, that's posted 110 points over its last two games, including in securing the Pac 12 title over USC. QB Cameron Rising had 300 yards passing and three TD's in that one. This year's Rose Bowl features two awesome QB's and I look for them to be the main story line in tomorrow's summaries of this contest; this number is low, the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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01-01-23 | Steelers v. Ravens OVER 35 | Top | 16-13 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC NORTH TOM on the OVER Pitt/Bal. I'm expecting this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. The Steelers are rolling, as they've won two straight and three of their last four. They're going to have their hands full here though with a Ravens side that plays with revenge after losing 16-14 at Pittsburgh in December (note that Baltimore though has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional road loss against an opponent in which it was held to 14 or less points in.) Baltimore is off a 17-9 win over ATL last week and it's won 3 of its last 4 despite the QB issues with LaMar Jackson. I think the home side opens up the playbook this weekend for Tyler Huntley now. Look for this total sneak "over the number once the final whistle sounds! AAA Sports |
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01-01-23 | Wizards v. Bucks UNDER 226.5 | Top | 118-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
10* UNDER Wizards/Bucks (EC TOW) I think this one sets up well as being a much more defensive affair than what this O/U line is suggesting. I think Washington finally has a letdown here after four straight victories. This is the start of two-straight between the clubs here in Milwaukee, and I expect the Bucks to lay the hammer down defensively and take all hopes of a high-scoring shootout for the Wizards off the table. MIlwaukee is 15-2 at home. The Bucks though only average 112.9 PPG, which ranks 17th in the league. Giannis and company get the job done most nights with a trapping defense and that's what I'm expecting here. Look for the home side to slow this one down in an attempt to dictate the action. Overall as I stated off the top, this one sets up great for a lower-scoring battle from a situational stand-point; the play is indeed on the "under!" AAA Sports |
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12-31-22 | Mavs v. Spurs UNDER 227 | Top | 126-125 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
10* UNDER Mavs/Spurs (ASSASSIN) Anyone that's followed me for any length of time knows that I base my picks on MANY different things. I've always felt that the best way to secure profits over the long-term is to be flexible with your approach. Sometimes it's necessary to completely dissect a game, looking at every tiny factor possible, but other times a more "common sense" approach is the best way to handicap. And that's the case here for this one. Both sides have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm finally expecting a more defensive affair here. Dallas is coming off three straight high-scoring home victories (note though that the Mavericks have seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.) San Antonio is coming off a 122-115 home win over New York, and it's now seen the total fly "over" the number in five straight (which is significant to note for us, as the Spurs have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row.) The overall situation that each team finds itself in coming into this one, combined with the strong O/U ATS stats listed above, makes the "under" the correct call in this on in my opinion! AAA Sports |
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12-30-22 | Wolves v. Bucks UNDER 227.5 | Top | 114-123 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
10* UNDER Wolves/Bucks (ASSASSIN) These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but we can expect a very defensive one here in my opinion finally. Minnesota is off the heart-breaking 119-118 loss at New Orleans. It's seen the total go "over" the number in three straight, but note that the Wolves have seen the total go "under" in five of their last six after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Minnesota returns home for a much more "winnable" game vs. Detroit as well, so I think the visitors get caught "looking ahead" and will simply "go through the motions" at the end of the game. The Bucks only average 112.6 PPG, which ranks 17th. They're off a 119-113 OT home loss to the Bulls, so they'll be eager to double down defensively after that loss of concentration last time out. Look for this non-conference contest to result in a lower-scoring affair; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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12-29-22 | Knicks v. Spurs UNDER 229.5 | Top | 115-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
10* UNDER Knicks/Spurs (BOB) Both of these teams have played to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. New York is coming off a brutal 126-121 loss to Dallas, while San Antonio is coming ff a 130-114 setback to Oklahoma City. The Knicks won't be fooling around today though in my estimation after four straight losses. I believe they'll double down hard on the defensive end to try and snap the slide. The Spurs are just 6-12 at home. Note that they've seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 after a SU/ATS home loss of 15 or more points. This O/U line is elevated now in my opinion. Look for each side to play more aggressive defense tonight, and that'll help in driving this total well "under" the number once the final horn blares! AAA Sports |
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12-28-22 | Kansas v. Arkansas UNDER 69.5 | Top | 53-55 | Loss | -112 | 509 h 51 m | Show |
10* UNDER Kansas/Arkansas (BOWL TOM) These teams haven't played each other in over 100 years. That streak ends on December 28th at Simmons Liberty Stadium in Memphis. Kansas finished 6-6 and it's finally in a bowl game for the first time since 2006. This is a big deal for the Jayhawks and their fan base. Arkansas also finished 6-6, but that was a disappointment for the Razorbacks, who went 9-4 last year, including psoting a win in the Outback Bowl. Kansas actually started the season 5-0, but then its starting QB got hurt, Conference play started and the Jayhawks went on to lose six of their last seven. But first year head coach Lance Leipold's first season is still a success. QB Jalon Daniels did return from injury and finished with 1,470 passing yards, 13 TD's and two INT's. Kansas struggled defensively, but I think it can make some plays against Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson. The bottom line is, neither team will be suiting up their entire squad, and I believe the long lay off will have a detrimental effect on these offenses; the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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12-27-22 | Clippers v. Raptors UNDER 219.5 | Top | 124-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
10* UNDER Clippers/Raptors (TOW) If you've followed me for any length of time, then you know that I base my picks on many different things. This particular one I'm basing on "common sense." The Clippers rallied late in Detroit last night to force OT, then they pulled away for the higher-scoring win and cover on the road. I say the Clippers come in fatigued here and I look for the Raptors to take advantage. They'll be playing a combination of full and half-court pressure throughout. Toronto won back-to-back road games, but it returns home still only averaging 111.4 PPG. I'm expecting a grindy, chippy, highly-contested game, and one that falls "under" the number once the final horn sounds! AAA Sports |
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12-27-22 | Utah State v. Memphis UNDER 59 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
10* UNDER (TOP BOWL TOTAL) The total in this game has come down from its opening mark, and I don't think it's low enough. Utah State will be focused on running the ball today, and that means more time will be chewed off the clock with each possessions. Memphis actually posted combined scores of under 60 over two of its final three games. In fact, these teams combined offensive scores this season add up to under 60 points. I don't think either will reach its average here. Rest leads to "rust" for sure. Granted, Memphis does have a decent passing attack. But the Aggies have hit the "under" in eight of their last nine bowl games. Expect a hard-fought, but ulimtately lower-scoring affair here; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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12-26-22 | Chargers v. Colts UNDER 45.5 | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
10* UNDER Chargers/Colts Everything points to a lower-scoring "under" in this one in my opinion. The first thing that strikes me here is that the Colts simply have nothing to play for anymore. They're missing their starting QB, their starting RB and they're coming off the worst loss in the history of the league. The Chargers on the other hand have everything to play for. They've won two straight and can clinch a playoff spot with bigger aspirations moving forward with a victory. That said, I can't see LA keeping the foot on the gas from start to finish. Frankly, it's not going to have to. Look for LA's underrated defense to dictate the second half and expect this total to stay well "under" this posted number! AAA Sports |
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12-25-22 | Iona v. Pepperdine UNDER 152.5 | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
8* UNDER Iona/Pepperdine (SPECIAL) Both teams have been involved in some higher-scoring games coming into this one, but I'm expecting a much more defensive affair here finally. The Iona Gaels are 8-4, and the Pepperdine waves are 7-6. The Gaels are coming off an 83-72 win over Seattle, but note that they've seen the total go "under" in five of their last six after a SU/ATS victory. The Pepperdine Waves are coming off an 81-70 win over George Washington. These teams have been playing well offensively, but I expect each to come out flat here on Christmas Day. This O/U line is just a few points higher than it normally should/would, be, so the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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12-24-22 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 47.5 | Top | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
10* UNDER Eagles/Boys (NFC EAST TOM) The Eagles are 13-1, but QB Jalen Hurts is hurt and won't be playing, and because of that, I'm expecting Philly to come out today with an alternate game-plan. Dallas is off a tough OT loss to Jacksonville. Gardner Minshew is now the QB for Philadelphia and while I do think he has talent, he'll simply be a game-manager today for sure. Look for the Eagles' talented defense, which ranks sixth in allowing only 19.1 PPG. Dak Prescott had 256 yards and three TD's for Dallas last week, but it wasn't enough to beat a red hot Trevor Lawrence. This one is going to be decided by field position and special teams; this number is high, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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12-24-22 | Saints v. Browns OVER 32 | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
8* OVER Saints/Browns (SPECIAL) The Browns aren't mathematically eliminated from Playoff contention, but they will be if they lose this game. Same thing for New Orleans, who will have to win out and get some outside help to qualify. Both Andy Dalton and Taysom Hill threw a TD in New Orleans' win over Atlanta last weekend. The run defense for the Saints was smashed for 231 yards though, which doesn't bode well here facing Browns' star RB Nick Chubb. Last week Cleveland QB DeShaun Watson had a TD and 161 yards through the air, and I believe he'll have an even more efficient outing this evening. Off wins, and needing a victory to stay alive, look for these desperate teams to open up the playbook and expect this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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12-23-22 | Spurs v. Magic UNDER 228.5 | Top | 113-133 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
10* UNDER Spurs/Magic (ASSASSIN) These teams have done better than most thought so far this year. With the X-Mas break looming though, I believe each will be a bit distracted, and because of that, I'm expecting these offenses to struggle. San Antonio has seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last six, including in its most recent 126-117 loss to New Orleans. This is first meeting of the year between the clubs. Orlando is off a 116-110 win at Houston, and while the Magic have definitely been playing better of late, they still only average 109.6 PPG. For all the reasons listed above, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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12-23-22 | Wake Forest v. Missouri UNDER 59 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
10* UNDER (TOP BOWL TOTAL) Wake Forest had a great offense and a poor defense. The offense averaged 36.2 PPG, while the defense allowed 31. The Demon Deacons though see plenty of talent leaving the offense via the transfer portal, including RB Christian Turner. Look for the time off and the new faces to throw a big "monkey wrench" into the chemistry of this Deacons' offense. The Tigers won four of their last six games to qualify. The Tigers only average 24.7 PPG, while allowing 25.7; I'm expecting a very defensive affair here, so the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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12-22-22 | Spurs v. Pelicans UNDER 226.5 | Top | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
10* UNDER Spurs/Pelicans. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring affairs, but all signs point to a much more defensive one here today. San Antonio is coming off a rare road win, pulling away for a 124-105 win at Houston. San Antonio still only averages 110.3 PPG this year, which ranks 26th. The Pels will now be desperate to break a four-game slide. That includes a 128-119 setback to the Bucks in their last outing. Note though that New Orleans has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. When these teams played in early December, the total stayed well "under" the number in New Orleans 117-99 victory, and I'm expecting a similar final combined score here as well; this number is high, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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12-20-22 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets OVER 232.5 | Top | 91-105 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
10* Grizz/Nuggets OVER (ASSASSIN) Both teams have been involved in some lower-scoring "unders" of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. These are two really good teams, and this is the first meeting of the year between them. Suffice it to say, I'm expecting a faster-paced, wide-open "shootout." The Grizzlies are 19-10 after their 115-109 loss at OKC last time out. Despite the setback, Memphis still averages 116.2 PPG, which ranks sixth. Denver is 18-11 after its 119-115 home win over Charlotte. The Nuggets rank eighth overall in averaging 115.8 PPG this year. They've seen the total go "under" in three of their last four, but with this other Western Conference powerhouse in town, everything points to a "run-and-gun shootout;" this number is low, the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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12-19-22 | Rams v. Packers UNDER 39.5 | Top | 12-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
10* UNDER Rams/Packers (NFC TOM) The Rams are 4-9 after somehow managing a 17-16 win at home over Las Vegas last weekend. Despite that though, they only average 16.8 PPG. Green Bay got back in the win column as well last week with a 28-19 road win at Chicago. The Packers have now seen the total go "over" the number in four straight. Green Bay though is also in the bottom third offensively, averaging only 20.2 PPG, ranked 22nd. The Packers haven't been blowing teams away when they win, it's been more of a defensive affair. The Packers have had to play from behind a lot, but I don't think that'll be the case today, as I expect the Rams to take an overall step back here on the road and in these wintery conditions; this number is high, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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12-18-22 | Warriors v. Raptors UNDER 227 | Top | 126-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
10* UNDER Warriors/Raptors (ASSASSIN) I don't usually bet "unders" in non-conference games, as I tend to feel that they're less intense defensively. There are exceptions though of course, and this is one of those times. From a "situational" stand point, this one sets up well as a lower-scoring defensive affair. Both teams are absolutely desperate for a win. Golden State has several injuries to key players, including star Steph Curry. The Warriors have now lost three straight. Toronto is off the high-scoring 119-116 home loss to the Nets. That's now four straight losses for the Raptors. We've reached the point of the season where your record reflects the type of team that you are, and clearly neither side can be happy right now. I expect each to double down on the defensive end tonight; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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12-18-22 | Bengals v. Bucs OVER 45 | Top | 34-23 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
10* OVER Bengals/Bucs (NON-CONF TOM) The Bengals are 9-4. I think Joe Burrow will want to put on a show here and run up the score against Brady. That said, after last week's humbling 35-7 loss at San Francisco, I think Brady will bounce back here at home and put some points on the board. From a situational stand point, it sets up well as a more wide open affair, rathter than a crushing defensive one between these non-conference opponents. The Bengals have been hit or miss defensively this season. They have been relying on Burrow and the offense to set the tone, entering averaging 25.8 PPG, ranked sixth. Finally, note that Tampa has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 off a SU/ATS road loss in which it was held to 9 or less points in; this number is low, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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12-18-22 | Patriots v. Raiders OVER 44.5 | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
8* OVER Pats/Raiders (BLOWOUT) It's essentially do or die for both teams. New England is going for its fifth win in its last seven games. The Pats beat Arizona 27-13 last week, while the Raiders fell 17-16 to the Rams. The Pats are a great defensive team, but I think they'll have their hands full with veteran Derek Carr. The Raiders though are allowing 24.1 PPG, so expect Pats' QB Mac Jones to have a big game as well here. I just expedct a very efficient game from each offense, and that's going to see this total eclipse the posted number as it comes down the stretch; this number is low, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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12-18-22 | Cowboys v. Jaguars UNDER 48 | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
8* UNDER Boys/Jags (SPECIAL) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. The Cowboys are now 10-3 after last week's 27-23 win over Houston. They didn't even come close to covering the large 17-point spread. Dallas has seen the total go "over" the number in three straight now, which is significant to note as the Cowboys have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in six of their last eight after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Jacksonville is 5-8. It's been playing much better behind the great play of QB Trevor Lawrence. The Jags are coming off a 36-22 road win at Tennessee. This Cowboys defense is legit though and I think the home side will have a much more difficult time moving the ball this afternoon; look for this total to stay well "under" the posted number! AAA Sports |
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12-17-22 | Heat v. Spurs UNDER 223 | Top | 111-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
10* UNDER (EXPRESS) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I believe those trends will end this evening. Miami is now 15-15 after a 111-108 road win at Houston. The Heat play with revenge after falling 115-111 to the Spurs in Mexico earlier in the season. That total went "over" the number, but note that Miami has seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss against an opponent. The Spurs are off a 128-112 home loss to Portland. They only average 110.2 PPG. After three straight "overs," expect a much more defensive peformance here from the home side. When you add it all up, this number is indeed a bit high; the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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12-17-22 | Florida v. Oregon State UNDER 53 | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
8* UNDER Florida/Oregon State (O/U BLOOD-BATH) This one sets up well for an "under." The Gators are without their starting QB, so their only hope here is to run the ball. The only problem there is, Oregon State is only allowing 114 rushing yards per game. This Oregon State defense allows just over 21 PPG, and I think they'll be on point here against this vanilla Florida offense. With each team committed to the run on offense throughout, expect this total to stay well under the posted number! AAA Sports |
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12-17-22 | Colts v. Vikings UNDER 48 | 36-39 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
8* UNDER Colts/Vikes (SUPER TOTAL) A common sense play here. The Colts are only averaging 16.1 PPG this year. They're coming off their bye week, but their strong point has been their defense. It's only allowing 16.1 PPG. Matt Ryan is 29th in the league with an 84.0 passer rating. The Vikes have been mediocre of late. They're just 2-2 in their last four. The Vikes' defense catches a break today. Justin Jefferson though is facing a Top 5 passing defense in the Colts today, so that means that Dalvin Cook will by leaned upon by the Vikes. I expect a whole lot of running from each side today; this number is high, the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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12-16-22 | Troy v. UTSA OVER 56.5 | Top | 18-12 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
10* OVER UTSA/TROY (TOTAL ROUT) Both teams finished 11-2. UTSA went 8-0 in conference play and then won the Conference USA Championship over UNT by a score of 48-27. I feel like today's game will have a similar final combined score. QB Frank Harris had 341 yards and four TD's in the vicotry. The Roadrunners put the pedal to the metal all game, entering averaging 37.6 PPG. Troy is only allowing 17.6 PPG, but the Trojans are off a big Sun Belt Championship by smoking Coastal Carolina by a score of 45-26. QB Gunnar Watson had 318 yards passing and three TD's. The stage is set for a bit of a shootout here; this number is low the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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12-14-22 | Red Wings v. Wild OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
10* OVER Wings/Wild (ASSASSIN) Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I love the way this one sets up to be a higher-scoring one finally for a few different reasons. Detroit has now seen the total go "under" the number in five straight after last night's loss to the Stars. It's also lost three straight. The Wings though have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row, and in five of their last six after three or more losses in a row. The Wild are coming off a 2-1 win here at home over Edmonton in their most recent matchup. They've held their last two opponents to a combined one goal, so I'm expecting some regression here finally on the defensive side vs. this hungry Wings team. When you add it all up, this O/U line is low; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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12-13-22 | Flyers v. Avalanche OVER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
10* OVER Flyers/Avs (TOTAL EXPRESS) I'm expecting a wide-open, higher-scoring affair here today. Philadelphia is off a 5-4 OT loss at Arizona. They play with revenge here today after a 5-3 loss at home to Colorado on December 5th. Note that Philly has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a two goals or greater home loss against an opponent. Colorado has seen the total go "under" the number in three straight after its 3-2 OT win at St. Louis, which is important for us to note here, as the Avs have seen the total go "over" the number in five of their last six after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Expect a faster-paced, higher-scoring "over" in this one! AAA Sports |
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12-12-22 | Nets v. Wizards UNDER 228.5 | Top | 112-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
10* UNDER Nets/Wizards (EXPRESS) When these teams played against each other on November 30th, the total went "under" the number in the Nets' 113-107 victory. I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Since then Brooklyn has gone 3-1, and it's seen the total now go "over" in three straight (but that's significant to note, as the Nets have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in five of their last six after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. The Wizards have now lost six straight after a 114-107 home loss to the Clippers. They only average 110.8 PPG, and I think they'll struggle to reach that number this evening. Look for a much more defensive affair here; the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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12-11-22 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 53.5 | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 50 m | Show |
10* UNDER Vikes/Lions (NFC NORTH TOY) For a number of different reasons, I expect this total to stay "under" the posted number. The Vikes are 10-2, but they're slight underdogs here on the road vs. the 5-7 Lions. Detroit has inexplicably won four of its last five, but after last week's big 40-14 home victory over Jacksonville, I think the Lions will have a much harder time moving the ball vs. their divional opponent today. The first matchup of the season resulted in a 28-24 win for the Vikes, and the total went "over" the number of 51.5 in that one. But I think the rematch, considering the implications, will be a much more methodical, slower-paced defensive affair where field position becomes paramount. Look for Minnesota to pound the football via the run game while on offense, while also delivering a lot of pressure on the defensive side; this number is a little high, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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12-10-22 | Navy v. Army OVER 32 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
10* OVER Navy/Army (TOTAL BLOWOUT) These teams have historically played to several lower-scoring games over the last decade. Both run the triple-option, and neither will throw the ball much if at all. It's going to be blustery conditions as well in Philadelphia, but with all of that said, I still think this number is low. Navy averaes 22.4 PPG, while Army averages 29.4. Tyhier Taylor has 12 rushing TD, and the Black Knights averaged over 300 rushing yards per game. Navy uses a combination of Maasai Maynor and Xavier Arline at QB, and it's been effective as well. I believe each will come close to their seasonal offensive average here, so the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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12-09-22 | Sharks v. Ducks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
10* UNDER Sharks/Ducks (EXPRESS) These teams have been playing to higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. San Jose is off the 6-5 OT loss at home to Vancouver. It only averages 2.97 GPG though. It plays with revenge here after a 5-4 loss to the Ducks at the start of November, but note that SJ has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a loss against an opponent in which it conceded five or more goals in. The Ducks are off a 4-3 OT win over Carolina, but they oly average 2.48 GPG. I don't see either team reaching its offensive average here tonight though. In a game that I see being a very tight defensive-affair, the play is indeed on the "under!" AAA Sports |
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12-09-22 | Washington v. Gonzaga OVER 148 | Top | 60-77 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
10* OVER Washington/Gonzaga (NON-CONF TOW) When these teams battled in 2019, Gonzaga walked away with the 83-76 victory. I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Washington is 7-2 after a 73-63 win over Colorado in its last outing. Overall the Huskies are averaging 70.1 PPG, while allowing 63.9. Keion Brooks leads the nightly charge with an average of 16.6 PPG. The Huskies will have to bring their "A" game to face the 6-3 Bulldogs. Gonzaga is averaging a whopping 80.2 PPG this year, but its defense has taken a step back, as it's conceding 74.1. Finally note, the "over" is 5-1 in Washington's last six games following a straight-up win. I expect a faster-paced affair here, one that flies well "over" the number once it's all said and done! AAA Sports |
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12-09-22 | Suns v. Pelicans OVER 226.5 | Top | 117-128 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
10* OVER Suns/Pelicans. For a number of different reasons, I expect this total to fly well "over" the posted number. The Suns are 16-8 after a listless 125-98 home loss to Boston. But that's important to note here, as Phoenix has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 when coming off a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 99 or less points in. New Orleans is off the 104-98 home win over Detroit. It plays with revenge here after a 124-111 road loss at Phoenix in late October. Note that the Pels have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss against an opponent. Look for these two surging clubs to battle to a higher-scoring affair; the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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12-07-22 | Hawks v. Knicks OVER 232 | Top | 89-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
10* OVER Hawks/Knicks (ASSASSIN) These are two teams in need of a win. Atlanta is 13-11. It's 5-6 on the road. New York is 11-13 and 5-7 at home. The Hawks are coming off a 121-114 loss at home to Oklahoma City. That broke a two game win streak, but over their last three games, the Hawks have still averaged 119 points per game. I think they keep that offensive momentum rolling here. Tre Young and head coach Nate McMillan got into an argument, and Young walked out of the last game, but that'll just add fuel to the fire here for the Hawks I think in this one. And then for New York, it just snapped a two-game slide with a low-scoring 92-81 win here over Cleveland on the weekend. But that's signficant to note, as the Knicks have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after a straight up and against the spread home victory in which they held their opponent to 90 or fewer points in. The Knicks also play with the added incentive of "revenge" here, as they lost 112-96 to the Hawks at the start of November. That play also went "under" the number. But I say the rematch here will be a faster paced contest. This one has all the makings of a shootout in my opinion; the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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12-04-22 | Red Wings v. Blue Jackets OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
10* OVER (TOTAL BLOOD-BATH) Two teams in dire need of a win, and which have not played to many high-scoring affairs of late, collide here on Sunday and in my opinion, everything points to a wide-open "goal-fest." Detroit is off the 4-1 loss at home to Vegas just last night. It's still 11-7-3-2 and note that the Wings have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in five of their last six after a home loss in which they were held to one or less goals in. Columbus is only 8-12-1-1, but it'll look to keep the foot on the gas after a 4-1 win at Winnipeg last time out. The problem for the Blue Jackets this year? Defensively! They concede 3.95 GPG, which ranks 31st. Look for this faster-paced affair to result in plenty of goals; the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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12-03-22 | Bucks v. Hornets UNDER 225.5 | Top | 105-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
10* UNDER Bucks/Hornets (ASSASSIN) For a couple of different reasons, I really expect this to be a very defensive affair on Saturday night. More than anything, this is just a common sense play. Both teams played and went "over" the total just last night! The Lakers beat the Bucks 133-129 as 8.5-point underdogs, which is signficant to note, as Milwaukee has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 off a SU/ATS home loss in which it allowed 130 or more points in. Charlotte's off the tight 117-116 home win over Washington, "lucky" as it only scored ten points total in the final quarter. I think the Hornets are "gassed" here for sure now in the second game of the B2B; this number is high, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots OVER 43.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
Buffalo/Patriots OVER (AFC EAST TOTAL OF MONTH) It's clearly a big game for both teams, but more so for New England. The Patriots are 6-5 after last week's 33-26 loss at Minnesota on Thanksgiving Day. These teams play again in the very final game of the year. The Patriots have struggled with offensive consistency, but they're going to have to be the aggressor today. The Bills are coming off back-to-back road victories in Detroit, coming from behind to knock off the Lions on Thanksgiving Day for their second straight win on the same field (snow game the previous outing.) The Bills are now having to play a third-straight game on the road as a favorite. It's difficult to win in the NFL. It's even more difficult to win on the road in the NFL as a favorite week after week. I just see this being an offensive battle. Both teams moved the ball last week and I expect the same here; the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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12-01-22 | Mavs v. Pistons UNDER 222 | Top | 125-131 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
10* UNDER Mavericks/Pistons (NON-CONF. TOM). I think we'll see more of a defensive affair here, rather than a wide-open run and gun shootout. The Mavericks are 10-10, but just 1-7 on the road. They're coming off the high-scoring 116-113 home win over Golden State, but they still average only l09.4 PPG, ranked 24th. Dallas most nights gets the job done with tough defensive play. Detroit is just 5-18, and it's coming off a 140-110 home loss here to New YOrk two nights ago. The Pistons though only average 109.1 PPG, ranked 26th. I can't see either team reachign their seasonal offensive averages here tonight (note as well that Detroit has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after a 25 points or greater SU/ATS home loss.) All signs point to a lower-scoring battle between these non-conference opponets. AAA Sports |
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11-30-22 | Bucks v. Knicks UNDER 227 | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
10* UNDER Bucks/Knicks (ASSASSIN) For a number of different reasons I expect this total to fall well below the posted number once it's all said and done. Common sense is a great approach to use here for the Knicks, who are off a big 140-110 win at Detroit just last night. I had the Knicks in that one. But, I beliee fatigue will be a factor here in the second game of the back-to-back. The Bucks are 14-5, one of the best records in the league, but they haven't been killing teams with offense, as they average 112.5 PPG, ranked 15th in the league. Instead it's been aggressive defensive play. Both teams have seen the total go "over" the number in four straight, but I believe that the value has now finally swung the other way as far as the total is concerned; the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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11-29-22 | Lightning v. Bruins UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
10* UNDER Lighting/Bruins (TOP TOTAL) If you've followed me for any length of time, then you've heard me say many times that I don't follow any particular single handicapping methodology, but that I instead feel that being "flexible" with your approach is the best way to secure profits over the short, mid and long-term. Some times I completely break down a pick, looking at every player, every stat, every angle I can find, but other times a more "common sense" approach is definitely the best way to approach a contest. And that's the case with this particular one. Tampa's off a tight 6-5 OT win at Buffalo just last night, and I expect the Bolts to come in with "heavy legs" here in the second game of the B2B. Look for the viistors to double down on the defensive side tonight. The Bruins are 18-3 this year. They're off a tight 3-2 OT win over Carolina here at home three nights ago and I expect a similar final combined score here as well; this number is high, the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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11-28-22 | Pacers v. Lakers UNDER 235 | Top | 116-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
10* UNDER Pacers/Lakers (NON-CONF TOW) A common sense play here. The Pacers are off a 114-100 loss to the Clippers here just last night and I expect the visiting side to come into this one with "heavy legs." They continue their tough road trip at Sacramento to end the month. The Lakers have been playing a lot better of late. They're coming off back-to-back road wins at San Antonio, including a 143-138 victory in the second one. They're still only averagihg 112.2 PPG though. I think we'll see a much more subdued game here, and because of that, I'm expecting this total to stay well "under" the posted number! AAA Sports |