Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-10-20 | Long Beach State v. San Francisco -16 | Top | 62-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN FRANCISCO With the NCAA Tournament being cancelled in March, one of the teams you felt for the most was San Francisco. The Dons had a breakout season in 2019-20, going 22-12 and there was a decent shot they were going to get an at-large bid. Keep in mind this program has been to the Big Dance just ONE time since 1982 and that was in 1998. This year, the Dons already have two losses, one of them a real “head-scratcher” to UMass-Lowell in the first game of the season. But they’ve also shown what they are capable of by beating then #4 Virginia on a neutral floor. The Dons have had a few extra days off to prepare here as Sunday’s game vs. Nevada was cancelled because of COVID. We ran with Long Beach State on Sunday and they covered against Seattle, but that was a much weaker opponent. The 49ers have really struggled shooting the ball in their first two games and were blown out by another WCC team (Loyola Marymount) in their first game (lost by 24). San Francisco is a better team than Loyola Marymount. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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12-09-20 | SE Missouri State v. Lipscomb -6.5 | Top | 74-80 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LIPSCOMB Lipscomb is looking to snap a four-game losing skid on Wednesday as it hosts SE Missouri State. In an interesting twist, these teams just played Monday. SE Missouri State won 82-77 as a 4-point home underdog despite Lipscomb shooting an impressive 55% from the field. One might think the Bisons could be in some trouble here given how hard it is to duplicate that kind of shooting. But we don’t see them taking 11 fewer shots than SE Missouri State again. This is Lipscomb’s first home game so a 1-4 start really isn’t that concerning. Two of the losses were close and the other two were at Cincinnati and Arkansas. It’s tough to beat the same opponent twice in a row and it’s not as if SE Missouri State is a good team. This will be the 4th straight game they’re underdogs and we see some value here as Lipscomb went off as the favorite, on the road, in that first meeting. Expect a double digit win by the home team Wednesday. Play on LIPSCOMB AAA |
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12-09-20 | Chattanooga v. Bellarmine +2.5 | Top | 77-68 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BELLARMINE Don’t feel bad if you’ve never heard of Bellarmine. The University, located in Louisville, KY, is new to Division I this season. They just picked up their first ever DI victory two days ago, beating Howard 84-63. This will be their first ever home game as a DI school, so it’s a pretty big deal (even without fans present). They host Chattanooga, who has opened 4-0. Besides Howard, the Knights’ only other game thus far was against Duke and they were actually competitive in the first half of that game. Despite being unbeaten, Chattanooga is in a bit of a tough situation here playing its second road game in three days. They won at Middle Tennessee Monday 80-70 as two-point pups. That victory seems to have influenced this line greatly, but we see value on what should be a fired up Bellarmine team. Play on BELLARMINE AAA |
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12-08-20 | Illinois +4 v. Duke | Top | 83-68 | Win | 100 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ILLINOIS #6 Illinois takes on #10 Duke as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge on Tuesday. This is also one of two matchups of Top 10 opponents on tonight’s card (Creighton-Kansas). The Illini will be looking to bounce back from an ugly 89-62 defeat they suffered at the hands of #2 Baylor last week. Duke also knows what it’s like to taste defeat as they fell last Tuesday to Michigan State. That game was played in Cameron and while the Blue Devils have since bounced back (76-54 win over Bellarmine), that win really proves nothing. Duke is 0-3 ATS and seemingly overrated at #10 in the polls. A second home loss to a top 10 Big 10 opponent is certainly not out of the realm of possibility here as Illinois is 4-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. We like what we saw from the Illini in the first few games and believe them to be a legit Top 10 team. We don’t feel the same about Duke right now as they’ve used eight different players in the starting five so far and had just two double digit scorers in the last game. They’re young. Play on ILLINOIS AAA |
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12-08-20 | Morgan State v. Iona -8 | Top | 83-72 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on IONA Iona and Morgan State are both 1-1 having lost their respective openers and then coming back to win the second time out. But while the records are the same, the paths were very different. Iona has played Seton Hall and Hofstra, both on the road. Morgan State has faced Mt. St. Marys and Lincoln PA, both at home. Before you go writing off Hofstra as a strong opponent, Iona was an 8.5-point underdog against them. By the way, the Gaels are now being coached by Rick Pitino. Now he’s favored for the first time in almost three years. Given that Morgan State just allowed 94 to Lincoln PA after scoring only 55 vs. MSM, this should be an easy one for Pitino’s team. Iona leads all MAAC teams, scoring 73 points/game. They have three players that account for 67 percent of the scoring. Isaiah Ross is their best player as he’s shooting 52% from three and 99% from the free throw line. Iona is 4-0 all-time vs. Morgan State and should take advantage of a Bears team that is 0 for its last 5 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days rest. Play on IONA AAA |
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12-07-20 | Fairfield v. Hartford -3.5 | Top | 54-67 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HARTFORD After starting 0-2 (losses to UConn and Villanova), Hartford has started to gain some momentum with back to back wins. One of those was against Fairfield, who they’ll play again tonight. Fairfield is 0-3 and while they’ve been “in” the last two games (lost 66-61 to Hartford), it’s tough to imagine the Stags winning on the road tonight after the lost to Hartford at home. Neither team shot well in the first meeting, although Fairfield did make 7 of its 18 three-point attempts while Hartford was just 8 of 28. We don’t see them shooting that much better from distance now that they’re the road team nor do we believe they’ll hold a +9 edge in free throw attempts like they enjoyed last week. Really, the fact Fairfield couldn’t beat this Hartford team at home is a bad sign. The Stags have lost 45 of their last 66 games overall including 8-23 on the road. Play on HARTFORD AAA |
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12-06-20 | Seattle University v. Long Beach State -4.5 | Top | 75-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LBSU Long Beach State’s season didn’t get off to a good start as they lost by 24 at Loyola Marymount on Friday. But the 49ers have what looks to be their easiest game of the non-conference slate here on Sunday as they host a Seattle team that’s coming off two straight double digit losses, the more recent coming by 26 against UCLA. Coach Dan Monson has been known for challenging his team with tough non-conference schedules ever since he arrived here in Long Beach back in 2007. The 49ers didn’t “show up” for the season opener, but they will for what is their lone home game between now and the 1st of the year. This is a shockingly low spread in our eyes, but we’ll take it as LBSU is 5-0 (straight up) the past three seasons as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. They’ve won over two-thirds of the time in that role. Seattle is shooting below 30% from three-point range so far. LBSU has revenge for an ugly 22-point loss up the coast from last season. Play on LONG BEACH STATE AAA |
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12-04-20 | North Dakota v. Minnesota -21.5 | Top | 67-76 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA Big time mismatch here as Minnesota is 3-0 while North Dakota State is 0-2. You might be thinking that the large point spread could be of “assistance” to the Fighting Hawks on Friday, but you’d be wrong as they are 0-6 ATS their past six chances as a road underdog of at least 12.5 points. Not only did ND suffer a double digit loss in the season opener at Miami (OH), they lost to a team named Dixie State just two days ago. That’s a brand new team to Division I and the fact ND was just a three-point favorite to begin with speaks volumes about the state of this program. Meanwhile, Minnesota is averaging 84.7 points in three games. They just beat Loyola Marymount twice. While they didn’t cover the second time, they held LMU below 25% shooting from three-point range. That coupled with an explosive offense should result in an easy win Friday. The Gophers got called for a lot of fouls in their last game, which is why that game stayed so close. Don’t see them getting whistled as much tonight at home and against a really bad team, that means a blowout is coming. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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12-03-20 | Montana v. Southern Utah +1 | Top | 63-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SOUTHERN UTAH Perhaps you’re watching “Big Sky” (on ABC) but we expect no real surprises here in the conference that bears that show’s namesake. Southern Utah should be able to defeat Montana at home as the Golden Grizzlies appear to be a bit shorthanded for their conference opener and did not look good against USC on Saturday, which is the only game that they have played. Montana was held to 62 points on 33.9% shooting and then got torched on the defensive end, allowing USC to shoot 50%. They really struggled to defend the three-point line in that game. Look for that to be a problem here against a Southern Utah outfit that has shot the lights out in two games, making almost 42% of their 3PA. The Thunderbirds have scored 83 and 95 points in their two games. These Big Sky rivals played two close games last season with the road team winning both times. But Southern Utah has won 21 of its past 30 at home and seems like a good value tonight. Play on SOUTHERN UTAH AAA |
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12-03-20 | VMI v. Virginia Tech -21.5 | Top | 57-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VA TECH Virginia Tech should not encounter much resistance tonight when it goes up against VMI, a team that traditionally gives up a lot of points. In their lone game thus far against meaningful competition, the Keydets gave up 86 points to Penn State. They won their other two contests, but those were against St. Andrews and Longwood. Virginia Tech is a legit Top 25 team right now (ranked #16) that has already beaten Villanova 81-73 as a nine-point underdog. The Hokies have also beaten VMI each of the past two seasons, both times by double digits. The Hokies followed their big upset of Villanova with a 75-68 win over South Florida on Sunday and haven’t played since, so they should be well rested. VMI played two nights ago, which won’t do them any favors tonight. That they lost by 30 to Penn State is particularly instructive when handicapping this matchup. This is a team predicted to finish 9th in the 10-team Southern Conference. The Hokies are shooting almost 50% through three games and should score at will in this one. Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA |
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12-02-20 | North Florida v. Florida State -25.5 | Top | 58-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE Another game that won’t be close on Wednesday’s NCAAB slate is when Florida State hosts North Florida. The 22nd ranked Seminoles will be opening their season tonight while North Florida is already 0-3. All three losses for the Ospreys have been blowouts with them going down to Eastern Kentucky by 13, NC State by 35 and Miami by 18. That middle result is what sticks out to us. Florida State is better than all three teams North Florida has faced so far and thus this figures to turn into another long night. While the ‘Noles did lose a couple of lottery picks to the NBA, they did bring in Scottie Barnes, the highest rated recruit ever to come to Tallahassee. FSU typically defends very well and has scored 98 and 95 points the last two years on North Florida. This is precisely the kind of opponent you want to open your season against. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA |
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12-02-20 | Morehead State v. Ohio State -24 | Top | 44-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OHIO STATE We expect Ohio State to have little difficulty here blowing out Morehead State. The 23rd ranked Buckeyes are 2-0 and won both games by double digits. Admittedly, it was just a 10-point win over UMass-Lowell where they trailed in the second half. But they’d previously beaten Illinois State by 27 in the season opener. The closer than expected call against Mass-Lowell seems to have influenced this line and we say it’s time to take advantage. While Morehead State is off an upset win against Arkansas State, 69-61 as a three point home underdog, they’d previously lost to Kentucky by 36 and Richmond by 18. That’s the caliber of competition they are up against here. In those two defeats, the Eagles allowed the opponents to shoot almost 56% overall while averaging 81.5 points. Ohio State scored 94 in the season opener, so it should be another big offensive night for them in Columbus. Play on OHIO STATE AAA |
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12-01-20 | Valparaiso v. Illinois-Chicago +2 | Top | 50-66 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UIC Former Horizon League enemies meeting here. Even though Valparaiso is now in the Missouri Valley Conference, there should still be a sense of “rivalry” when they meet Illinois-Chicago on Tuesday, particularly on the UIC side of things. UIC has lost 10 straight times to Valpo. Though it’s a whole new group of players, they should come out highly motivated to end that win streak. The Flames are 2-0 thus far, both close wins. They beat Northern Illinois by four and Central Michigan by two, so it’s too bad they aren’t in the MAC! Valpo lost its only game, 77-71 at Vanderbilt, as they blew a five-point lead with just under six minutes to go. UIC did lead Central Michigan by double digits at halftime, so they were in control throughout, even if the final score doesn’t really indicate that. Both teams have done a good job defensively so far, but winning on the road might be too great of an ask for a young Valpo team right now. They may also be looking forward to a date with Purdue later this week. UIC has won 24 of its last 35 home games while Valpo has lost 19 of its last 28 away from home. Play on UIC AAA |
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12-01-20 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Creighton -19 | Top | 67-94 | Win | 100 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CREIGHTON City pride is at stake here with Omaha taking on Creighton. Omaha comes in as the decided underdog - and for good reason. The Mavericks are 1-2 so far this year and have failed to cover seven straight times against teams with winning records. Creighton is off a win, 69-58 over North Dakota State, which is their only game played to date. Nebraska-Omaha’s only win to this point was by a single point, 60-59 over Middle Tennessee. That came on the heels of a six-point loss to Austin Peay and right before a 12-point loss to Abilene Christian. Despite the questionable status of Creighton’s Denzel Mahoney (COVID-19), we think the Bluejays win this one going away as they are the #9 ranked team in the country right now. Preseason Big East Player of the Year Marcus Zegarowski shot just 2 of 11 against North Dakota State. He should have a much better shooting night here. Omaha has made just 18.2% of its three-point attempts thus far, which is horrendous. Play on CREIGHTON AAA |
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11-30-20 | Eastern Kentucky v. Xavier -15.5 | Top | 96-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on XAVIER Xavier opened its season with a convincing 101-49 win against Oakland. Since then, the Musketeers have had two close calls against Bradley and Toledo. They were able to win both - but only by a combined four points - and thus it was 0-2 ATS. Eastern Kentucky is off to a 2-0 start and has covered both of its games, but there’s a big difference from those first two opponents (N Florida, Charleston So) to the team they face today. The Colonels are just 1-6 ATS the last seven times they’ve been a road underdog of 12.5 or more points. Concerning for EKU is the fact they’ve shot 35% in both games so far. Xavier is allowing a 31.2 field goal percentage thus far, so it figures to be a very low-scoring game for the underdogs here. Xavier opponents are shooting less than 30% on 2-pt attempts, which ranks 4th in the country, and EKU is shooting just 16% from three-point range. Should be an easy one for the Musketeers. Play on XAVIER AAA |
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11-30-20 | Chattanooga -6 v. Tennessee Tech | Top | 62-54 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHATTANOOGA We’ve got an in-state battle from the Volunteer State with Chattanooga opening its season proper against 0-1 Tennessee Tech. Tennessee Tech had little chance of winning their first game. They were big underdogs against Indiana and did even worse than expected, losing by 30. Chattanooga’s first game was a glorified exhibition as they defeated Lander College 99-63 a few days ago. The Mocs are 21-8 ATS on the road the previous two seasons so we believe the SoCon representation should perform well tonight. The last time these schools played, it was an 11-point home victory for Chattanooga. This was a 20-win team last season. They have eight guys back plus added some good-looking transfers. Tennessee Tech won only 9 games in 2019-20 and four of those came late in the year. Of the last 51 times that the Golden Eagles have been an underdog, they’ve won just nine times. So we will lay a short number. Play on CHATTANOOGA AAA |
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11-28-20 | Montana v. USC -11.5 | Top | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on USC USC already has a game under its belt and it didn’t really go as well as expected. They were still victorious mind you, but needed overtime to defeat Cal Baptist by a score of 95-87. They didn’t even come close to covering the number, which was -18.5. But what that close call does for us here is provide some value. We certainly expected the Trojans to be favored by more against Montana, who has yet to play in 2020. What hurt USC Wednesday night was the fact Cal Baptist went 20 of 41 from three-point range. The Trojans were just 5 of 19 from distance. That kind of discrepancy shouldn’t exist again tonight. You’d expect USC to be the better three-point shooting team. Or maybe they don’t have to be considering they made 32 of 47 two-point attempts in that first game! Montana is just 3-12 ATS as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points. The Grizzlies lost almost all of their offensive production from last season and are really going to struggle early on. Play on USC AAA |
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11-26-20 | Auburn -7.5 v. St. Joe's | Top | 96-91 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on AUBURN This game is in Fort Myers, very much on the “undercard” of Gonzaga-Kansas. Auburn went 25-6 a year ago. St. Joe’s was 6-26. Auburn is very much a program in “turmoil” right now. Not only did they lose their top six players from last season, but they are also a part of an ongoing FBI investigation. Still, we see no reason why we shouldn’t lay the points in this matchup. They are still a long and athletic team. St. Joe’s returns a lot more from last year, but that was a bad team (see record above). The Hawks are being picked to finish near the bottom of the Atlantic 10 again and aren’t going to be that improved in 2020-21. Because of the self-imposed postseason ban that was imposed earlier this week, we’re getting value on Auburn as bettors are seemingly willing to write this team off. That’s a mistake in our eyes. They are 7-1 ATS L8 neutral site games while St. Joseph’s is 1-3-1 ATS its last five. This number has come down much too far and Auburn is now a 10* play for us. Play on AUBURN AAA |
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11-25-20 | Clemson -4 v. Mississippi State | Top | 53-42 | Win | 100 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEMSON When you think Clemson and Mississippi State, College FOOTBALL is probably what comes to mind. But these Power 5 schools will open the NCAAB season against each other on Wednesday. This is part of the Space Coast Challenge in Melbourne, FL. It replaces the cancelled Cancun Classic. Clemson is the more experienced side coming into the year, but it’s the arrival of highly touted freshman PJ Hall that has Tigers fans most excited. Hall was the #1 high school player in the state of South Carolina, so he was a huge “get” for the program. Though Miss State has put together three consecutive 20+ win seasons, they bring back just four players and one of them didn’t see significant minutes last season. Clemson actually allowed fewer points per game a year ago and has revenge for a loss two years ago to the Bulldogs on a neutral floor. Take Clemson to win. Play on CLEMSON AAA |
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11-25-20 | St. Mary's +8 v. Memphis | Top | 56-73 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ST MARYS St. Mary’s and Memphis are two “mid-major” programs accustomed to success, but there’s a lot of new faces on both rosters to start the 2020-21 campaign. Memphis saw two of its standouts from last year get taken in the Top 20 picks of the NBA Draft last week. They return just four upperclassmen, none of them seniors. St. Mary’s also loses the bulk of its production (72% of scoring) from last year’s squad. But we’re more confident in the Gaels “figuring things out” in this first game in South Dakota, part of the Bad Boy Mowers Crossover Classic. It seems as if every year St. Mary’s wins more than 20 games and last year was no exception as they finished 26-8 and would have made the NCAA Tournament. Memphis has a player out because of COVID contact tracing and another transfer has yet to be ruled eligible. The Tigers are too young to trust laying this many points in the early going. Last year’s team had a losing record away from home and averaged just 64.5 points in those games. Play on ST. MARYS AAA |
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11-25-20 | North Dakota v. Miami-OH -6 | Top | 67-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI OH Miami Ohio opens its season with a visit from North Dakota and we see this being an easy cover for the RedHawks, who played well in Oxford a season ago. Especially on the defensive end where they limited opponents to 40.7% shooting. North Dakota could not claim the same sort of defensive prowess. The Fighting Hawks gave up 75.5 points/game last year and an even higher number on the road. The season ended in ugly fashion with an 89-53 defeat at the hands of North Dakota State in the Summit League Tournament. Never did the Fighting Hawks win more than two straight games during the 2019-20 campaign. They're not about to start this year with a win either. Both teams lost their star guard, but Miami returns four starters. Play on MIAMI OHIO AAA |
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10-11-20 | Lakers v. Heat +5 | Top | 106-93 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIA Miami isn’t going down without a fight -- that is if they go down at all! As we said prior to Game 5 - “if there’s one thing we’ve learned this postseason, it’s that the Heat are a resilient bunch.” We saw it in Game 3 when they won outright as a 9-point dog, 115-104. Game 4 was “close” too; or at least Miami covered again thanks to a made 3-pointer from Tyler Herro with 1.1 seconds left. By pulling the upset in Game 5, the Heat now have a 15-4-1 ATS playoff record and they are 14-6 straight up as well. They’ve been beaten in back to back games just one time during this run, that being Games 1 and 2 of this series. We said to bank on them shooting better in Game 5 than they did in Game 4 (when they finished with a 42.7 FG%) and they did, finishing at 42.9% from three-point range. (They were above 50% overall in both Games 2 and 3). Bam Adebayo is now back after missing Games 2 and 3. He’s had a combined 28 points and 11 rebounds since returning. But of course it has been Jimmy Butler “carrying the load” with those great individual efforts in Games 3 (40 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists) and 5 (35-12-11). At one point in Game 5, the Lakers were shooting 56.3% and still losing. Now Anthony Davis is banged up. All the pressure is on the Lakers. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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10-09-20 | Heat +7.5 v. Lakers | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 53 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Miami is down to their “last proverbial out.” It’s win or go home time as they trail the Lakers 3-1 in the series. But if there’s one thing we’ve learned this postseason, it’s that the Heat are a resilient bunch. We saw it in Game 3 when they won outright as a 9-point dog, 115-104. Game 4 was “close” too; or at least Miami covered again thanks to a made 3-pointer from Tyler Herro with 1.1 seconds left. That leaves the Heat with a 14-4-1 ATS playoff record and they are 13-6 straight up as well. They’ve been beaten in back to back games just one time during this run, that being Games 1 and 2 of this series. Bam Adebayo is now back after missing Games 2 and 3. He had 15 points and 7 rebounds in Game 4. Of course, Jimmy Butler had that great individual effort in Game 3 with 40 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists. Bank on the Heat shooting better than they did in Game 4 when they finished with a 42.7 FG%. (They were above 50% the previous two games). This might very well turn out to be the last game of the NBA bubble/season. But the Heat, who haven’t failed to cover in B2B games the entire playoffs, won’t go down without a fight. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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10-06-20 | Lakers v. Heat +7.5 | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Turns out that people were writing off Miami a little earlier than they should have. As a 9-point underdog, the Heat won Game 3 outright, 115-104. They were led by Jimmy Butler’s triple double of 40 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists. That’s just a tremendous individual effort in the wake of the injuries to both Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic. Neither of those two are guaranteed to return for Game 4 (though Adebayo has said “he hopes to”). Nevertheless, even without Adebayo and Dragic, Miami starters outscored their Lakers brethren 89-51 in Game 3. The Heat have shot better than 50% overall the L2 games, so they’re pretty locked in offensively right now. As we’ve talked about before, there’s a lot of talent on hand for coach Erik Spoelstra, such as Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson and Jae Crowder. All three of those players were in double figures in Game 3. For the Lakers, beyond LeBron James and Anthony Davis, there isn’t exactly a ton of talent depth. Though the Lakers have not dropped two straight in any playoff series so far, it is Miami that owns the better ATS record (13-4-1) this postseason and, while the number is down from Game 3, they are still getting too many points here. LA is just 2-8-1 ATS the L11 times they have been off an ATS loss. We never stopped believing that the Heat could compete in this series and taking the points is the way to go for Game 4! Play on MIAMI AAA |
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10-02-20 | Heat +9.5 v. Lakers | Top | 114-124 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIA Miami got blown out in Game 1. Along the way, Bam Adebayo, Goran Dragic and Jimmy Butler all got hurt. Butler will play in Game 2 but the other two are officially listed as doubtful. So basically everyone is going to write off the Heat. We will not. While injuries obviously do matter, this number is far off from where it was in Game 1 when a LOT of bettors were taking the points. If Miami does lose Game 2, it will be the first time they’ve lost consecutive games in the playoffs. The Lakers are 7-2-1 ATS L10 games, but several of those wins have come by single digits. This play is classic “zig zag theory” as the previous game loser was blown out and now getting more points to work with in the next game. Given all the hype that existed around Miami less than 48 hours ago, we believe it foolish to simply write them off after one bad loss. Their 2-3 zone can keep them in this one. Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro are a pair of 3-point specialists that can help Jimmy Butler with the offense. The Heat are 35-15-2 ATS off an ATS loss including 3-0 in the playoffs. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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09-27-20 | Celtics v. Heat +3.5 | Top | 113-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Miami failed in its first try to put away Boston, uncharacteristically blowing a double digit lead. The game swung pretty dramatically in the third quarter when the Celtics outscored the Heat 41-25. Miami’s three-point shooting for the game (19.4%) was dreadful as it’s been now for the last 13 quarters of the series (below 25%!). Expect the Heat to rediscover their touch from downtown Sunday. As we know, the Heat have not lost two in a row since the playoffs began. They’ve only been beaten in regulation twice, both times in this series, in 14 games. Off a double digit loss, they are 9-3 SU this season. While we won’t predict the Heat win straight up here, it’s very likely that they will and thus finish off the series. Take the points. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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09-26-20 | Nuggets +5 v. Lakers | Top | 107-117 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DEN For a third straight series, Denver finds itself down three games to one. Before this year’s playoffs, no team in history had ever come back from multiple 3-1 series deficits to win a series. Only a handful of teams had ever come back from one 3-1 series deficit. Of course, you could say Denver has the Lakers “right where they want them.” Since losing Game 1, the Nuggets have played LA tough with the two losses coming by a total of eight points (six and two). While they’re 0-3 SU in Game 4’s this postseason, they are obviously perfect in Game 5’s and 6-0 SU overall from Game 5 on. They are also 8-1 ATS when down in the series this postseason and that record could be 9-1 if you got the Nuggets at +6.5 on Thursday. Denver has shot the ball very well in this series, including right around 52% the last two games. In Game 4, the Lakers had tremendous advantages in both second chance points and free throw attempts, but those kinds of disparities are not something they should expect again. Take the points. Play on DENVER AAA |
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09-25-20 | Heat +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 108-121 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI With a win tonight, Miami moves on to the NBA Finals and a likely matchup with former teammate LeBron James and the Lakers. Don’t worry about the fact that the Heat are underdogs tonight. People have been underrating this team ever since the season restarted. They’ve gone 11-2 SU in the playoffs with one of those losses coming in overtime. They are also 11-2 ATS. After falling behind early in each of the first three games, Miami largely controlled Game 4 wire to wire. They did so despite shooting just 42.9% and 10 of 37 from three-point range. They’ll shoot better tonight, even as they are unlikely to get 37 points against from rookie Tyler Herro. That they continue to be the underdog is a little ridiculous and we’ll gladly take the points. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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09-23-20 | Celtics v. Heat +3 | Top | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIA Game 3 of this series marked the first loss in regulation for Miami since the playoffs began. While they’ve had a “nasty habit” of falling behind in games, the Heat still lead this Eastern Conference Finals 2 games to 1 over Boston. We see no way that the Heat don’t improve upon their shooting from the last game as they sank just 12 of 44 three-point attempts and finished with a 38.8 overall FG%. Despite all that, they were still within five points in the final minute. Obviously, having lost just two games since the playoffs started, the Heat have yet to drop two in a row. The last time they suffered back to back losses was right before the playoffs began, in the final two seeding games, neither of which they really put forth much effort in. The extra rest the teams got between Games 3 and 4 is interesting. Miami is 12-3 ATS the L3 seasons when playing with three or more days rest. Boston hasn’t won two straight since opening the last round 2-0 vs. Toronto. We don’t see Miami falling behind by double digits again, so taking the points is the way to go tonight in an obvious bounce back spot. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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09-20-20 | Nuggets +7.5 v. Lakers | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Given how their last two series have gone, maybe the Nuggets have the Lakers “right where they want them.” No strangers to trailing in these playoffs, Denver got blown out in Game 1 of the WCF, losing 126-114. Of course, they were blown out even worse by the Clippers in Game 1 of the last round (120-97) and still came back to win that series in seven games. They are the first team in league history to win two series in the same postseason in which they trailed 3-1. Not only did Denver bounce back from a Game 1 blowout to win the Clippers series, they took Game 2 outright, 110-101. We’ll definitely grab the points here as the Nuggets are now 6-1 ATS when trailing in the series this postseason. Since falling behind Utah 3 games to 1 in the first round, they’ve covered six straight in the role. The Lakers shot very well from 3-point land in Game 1 (42.3%), which is much higher than their season average. They can’t count on that happening again. Play on DENVER AAA |
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09-15-20 | Nuggets +7.5 v. Clippers | Top | 104-89 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DENVER Denver has consistently been underpriced in this series, so why should we stop now? We had the Nuggets in their upsets in Games 2 & 6 as well as their ATS win in Game 3. This is the consecutive series where they’ve rallied from a 3-1 deficit. We all remember what happened against Utah in Game 7. They are now 6-1 ATS when trailing in a series this postseason. Each of the last two games have seen them stage shocking comebacks from double digit deficits. While one could take this as a sign of the Clippers’ superiority and “falling asleep at the wheel,” we see it as “blown opportunities.” Los Angeles has just one double digit win in the series; it came in Game 1 when they had an edge in rest over the Nuggets. Since rest time has been equal, the Nuggets are 4-1 ATS. They outscored the Clippers 64-35 in the second half of Game 6. A troubling sign for LA is that they’ve shot better than 42% from the floor just once in the past five games. There is a lot of pressure on the Clippers in this Game 7. Denver is playing with “house money.” Even if they can’t make history and be the first team to win consecutive series in which they were down 3 games to 1, the Nuggets will keep this one close. Play on DENVER AAA |
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09-15-20 | Heat +1.5 v. Celtics | Top | 117-114 | Win | 100 | 33 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI After knocking off the top two seeds in the East, Miami and Boston meet in the Conference Finals. Miami ousted top seeded Milwaukee in five games. Even with Giannis Antetokounmpo hampered, that was still a really impressive effort from the Heat, who are now 8-1 SU and ATS this postseason. Boston needed seven games to eliminate Toronto, but was pretty clearly the better team in that series. Still, the extra games played is definitely a disadvantage for a thin lineup that’s still without Gordon Hayward. Bam Adebayo is the name to watch for the Heat as he led the way with 21 points and 12 rebounds in a 112-106 win when these teams faced off on August 4th. Boston defended the interior well against Toronto, particularly Daniel Theiss, but they clearly had issues against Adebayo last month. The Celtics shot just 43.5% in that game and were 10 of 33 from three-point range. Miami’s 3-point shooting has been a major weapon so far in the playoffs as they are at 38%, which is the highest percentage among the four likely conference finalists. Boston is just 13th in three-point shooting among the 16 playoff teams. Remember that the Heat have not been beaten in regulation since the playoffs began. Boston did not top 103 points in regulation in five of its last six games vs. Toronto. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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09-13-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets +8.5 | Top | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Denver has already come back from one 3-1 series deficit (1st round vs. Utah). Can they do it again? Not sure (honestly seems doubtful), but a big difference between this and the Jazz series is that Denver is getting a lot of points on a game by game basis. Taking them here in Game 6, we don’t need a SU win to cash a winning ticket. Earlier in this series, the Nuggets did cover the spread without winning (Game 3). Game 5 saw them come back from a double digit deficit to stun the Clippers 111-105. We don’t see the Nuggets falling behind like that again. The Clippers have shot pretty poorly in three of the five games so far. When trailing in a playoff series, Denver is 8-1 ATS including 5-1 this year. Over the course of the five games, LA is only outscoring Denver by 5 PPG. Jokic, Murray and Porter all had nice performances in Game 5, which is worrisome for the Clippers. So was the play of their bench. Take the points here. Play on DENVER AAA |
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09-12-20 | Rockets +6.5 v. Lakers | Top | 96-119 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston is playing for its season Saturday night. They trail the Lakers 3-1 and were thoroughly outplayed in Game 4, losing 110-100. Really, it wasn’t even as close as the final score would indicate as the Rockets trailed by as many as 23 in the fourth quarter. In many ways, it was the polar opposite of both Games 2 and 3 when they played the Lakers tough, only to come up just shy on the scoreboard. While the Rockets faced a large early deficit in Game 2, they came back and took the lead going into the fourth quarter. Game 3 saw them have the lead at halftime. Both those games saw the Lakers shoot the lights out. In Game 4, it was a massive edge in the paint and on second-chance points for LA. On the bright side for Houston, Russell Westbrook finally “woke up” with a 25-point effort Thursday. Faced with the prospect of “win or go home,” we figure we’ll be getting the Rockets’ best effort here, which certainly wasn’t the case in any of the last three games. It may not completely resemble Game 1 (which they won 112-97), but they’ll at least stay within the number as James Harden will certainly shoot better than 2 for 11 in this game. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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09-10-20 | Lakers v. Rockets +5 | Top | 110-100 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON A second half surge propelled the Lakers to a 112-102 win and cover in Game 3. Now they’ll look to go up 3-1 in the best of seven series against the Rockets. Obviously, Houston is in a virtual must win. We’ll take the points with them as they’ve been very close each of the last two games. Game 2 saw them erase all of an early double digit deficit to go up heading into the 4th quarter. This despite the Lakers shooting better 56% from the field, for the entire game! Game 3 saw the Rockets take the lead into halftime. But again, hot shooting from the Lakers (55.1 FG%) was too much to overcome. The fact that Los Angeles has shot better than 55% the L2 games, yet trailed and was tied going into the 4th quarter is not a good sign, in our opinion. Inevitably, their shooting will cool off. Meanwhile, the Rockets are due to heat up. This is the first time they’ve trailed in a series this postseason. The Lakers are only 5-10-1 ATS in the bubble and this is the first time they’ve covered two in a row. They are 3-7 ATS off their last 10 SU wins. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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09-09-20 | Raptors +3 v. Celtics | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO It’s a cliche assessment of Game 5, but Toronto really was badly outplayed at both ends of the floor. The game was never really in doubt as the Celtics raced out to a 25-11 lead after one quarter and a 62-37 lead by halftime. They held the Raptors to 38.8% shooting. But as we see so often in the NBA Playoffs, teams tend to bounce back from a poor effort. Now facing elimination, the Raptors have no other option but to bounce back. They really do need to get it going offensively as they’re averaging just 97.2 PPG for the series. Throughout the course of the series, the odds have shifted rather significantly as Toronto closed as a 2-point favorite for Game 1, but is now a 3-point dog for Game 6. While the pointspread is still unlikely to come into play, we do think there’s value in taking the Raptors as an underdog. They are 6-1-1 ATS their L8 playoff games getting points. The possibility of not having Serge Ibaka hurts, however that’s something they can overcome. Coach Nurse said "I know it sounds crazy .. but I thought our offense was awesome for like the first eight minutes," This despite the team going 2 for 15. Nurse added. "I don't think those shots could have been more open." Look for the Raptors to make those open shots Wednesday. They’ve got no other option. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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09-07-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets +9 | Top | 113-107 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Denver played a masterful Game 2, jumping out to a 44-25 advantage by the end of the first quarter, then holding on for the 110-101 upset as 8.5-point underdogs. After the Lakers successfully bounced back from a loss last night, most will anticipate the Clippers doing the same thing tonight. But we feel this line is just too high for an LA team that is just too inconsistent. Plus, the Nuggets have won four of their last five games anyway. They’ve also covered four of the last five times they’ve been an underdog. They are 12-1 ATS their L13 Monday games. Kawhi Leonard had a bad Game 2 and while his numbers should be better tonight, Denver seems to have developed a defensive strategy for him. Paul George can’t be consistently relied on as a second scoring option. We think its Denver that’s likely to have a better offensive performance tonight. Play on DENVER AAA |
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09-05-20 | Nuggets +9 v. Clippers | Top | 110-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER The Nuggets look to rebound from a poor Game 1 effort where they were at the disadvantage of only having one day between series while the Clippers had three. Still, it wasn’t just a matter of rest in the 120-97 defeat. Denver shot the ball horribly, especially from “downtown” as they were 9 of 36 on all three-point attempts. Overall, they shot 42.2% while the Clippers were at 57.1%. We won’t claim that the Nuggets are a great defensive team, but they’ll definitely allow a lower shooting percentage Saturday in Game 2. Denver has cashed the L6 times they have been down in a playoff series including a 3-0 ATS this year. Note that the Clippers failed to cover off their first two wins in the first round series with Dallas, losing outright both times. This is a lot of points for the Nuggets to be getting and while it may not have been nearly enough in Game 1, improved shooting coupled with some obvious regression from the Clippers should lead to at least a cover this time. Play on DENVER AAA |
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09-04-20 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | Top | 100-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Miami has seized control of this series and there has been nothing remotely fluky about it. Well, Jimmy Butler getting to shoot a pair of “walkoff” free throws in Game 2 might seem a bit fluky. But remember that situation came after a somewhat improbable late game run by the Bucks. The Heat have held the league’s highest scoring offense to just 109 points per game. Going back to the regular season, they have had Milwaukee’s number, winning four of the five meetings. The only loss came here in the bubble and even then the Heat led that game by 17 at halftime. Miami is now 6-0 ATS in the NBA Playoffs and has allowed 104 points or less in four of those wins. Milwaukee is the East’s #1 seed, but they’ve looked like an inferior side the first two games. Quite frankly, they haven’t looked right this whole time in the bubble. They’re only 5-9-1 ATS with three of the covers coming against Orlando. They are also just 3-8 SU when you take out that first round series. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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09-03-20 | Nuggets +8.5 v. Clippers | Top | 97-120 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER While Denver was taken to a 7th game by Utah, a series that just wrapped up Tuesday, let us also not forget the Clippers went six games against the Dallas Mavericks. These teams did meet earlier in the bubble with the Clippers winning 124-111. But they were only four point favorites for that game and trailed by eight at the half. This Game 1 number certainly seems to be inflated as far as we’re concerned. That’s probably due to the two fewer days of rest that Denver and the fact they were just the 12th team in NBA history to win a series in which it trailed 3-1. But Gary Harris is back for them now. Jamal Murray had three straight games of more than 42 points before Game 7 vs. Utah. Twice he went for 50. The Nuggets have covered six of the last nine times they’ve been getting points. The Clippers can be inconsistent, sometimes taking “nights off” and there are scoring issues behind Kawhi Leonard. This is too many points. Play on DENVER AAA |
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08-30-20 | Nuggets +2.5 v. Jazz | Top | 119-107 | Win | 101 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
The Nuggets are one more loss away from their season ending. This was also the case heading into Game 5 which they won 117-107 to stay alive. Before staying alive in Game 5, we took the points with Denver in Game 4 and they also covered the spread there. They are now 5-0 ATS the last two seasons when trailing in a playoff series after covering the last two games. Utah is 5-12 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite this year. They are just 1-4 ATS when leading in a playoff series the last two years. The Jazz have very little to offer offensively other than Donovan Mitchell, something that has become readily obvious in their two SU losses in this series. Play on DENVER AAA |
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08-29-20 | Blazers +13.5 v. Lakers | Top | 122-131 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Portland won’t have Damian Lillard as they try and stave off elimination in tonight’s Game 5 against the Lakers. After an 8-2 start to the bubble, they’ve lost three straight games, two of them by 20 or more points. None of the preceding sounds good for tonight. But, predictably, there’s been an overreaction by the oddsmakers here in the wake of the Lillard injury. They had to do it as the public will overwhelmingly bet the Lakers here. But we’re not convinced the line move should have been 7 points. Even without their best player, look for Portland to compete. Beyond its two stars - LeBron and Anthony Davis - the Lakers don’t have much depth, especially in the backcourt. Los Angeles is also a poor three-point shooting team. They made 56.3% of their shots in Game 4, a number they won’t come close to matching tonight. Games 2 and 4 are the only double digit wins the Lakers have in the bubble. The Blazers have some players, notably CJ McCollum, who can step up. They are 4-1 ATS off a double digit loss. We think the extra time between games well help the Blazers adjust to "life without Lillard." Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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08-24-20 | Bucks -13.5 v. Magic | Top | 121-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE While Orlando did pull the upset in Game One, things have quickly (and predictably) swung in Milwaukee’s favor in this series. Now the top-seeded Bucks can take a commanding 3-1 series advantage and there’s really no doubt in our minds that will happen. They are of course big favorites to beat the Magic in Game Four Monday afternoon and why wouldn’t they be? The last two games have seen them hold halftime advantages of 21 and 27 points. The Bucks shot 56.1% in Game Three, an uber-efficient performance where Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 35 pts on 12 of 14 shooting. The Magic are short-handed and have covered only 4 of their last 17 games vs. teams with a winning record. The Bucks are 6-2 ATS when leading in a playoff series and while this is a lot of points to lay, they are just that much better than their opponents here. This series likely ends in five games and Milwaukee will win big today. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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08-23-20 | Nuggets +3 v. Jazz | Top | 127-129 | Win | 103 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER The Nuggets have quickly gone from favorites to underdogs in this series as they’ve lost the last two games by a combined 56 points. If that sounds bad, well it is. But it's not over yet for Denver as they did win Game 1 (in overtime) and a win here would even the series back up. You have to think the Nuggets are going to shoot better than they did in Game 3. They made just 37.5% of their total attempts including only 12 of 38 three-pointers. The big story was the return of Mike Conley for Utah as he made seven threes on his way to a 27-point game. The Jazz have been somewhat inconsistent on offense during their time in the bubble as they definitely miss 2nd leading scorer Bogdanovic. Now it's Denver hoping for a return (Gary Harris) on Sunday as they look to move to 4-0 ATS the last four times they have been trailing in a playoff series. Utah is just 4-15-2 ATS the last 21 times it has been a favorite and they’re just 2-6 ATS coming off an ATS win. Play on DENVER AAA |
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08-22-20 | Lakers v. Blazers +7.5 | Top | 116-108 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND After upsetting the Lakers in Game 1, Portland got run out of the gym in Game 2. They were down 30 after three quarters and lost 111-88 in what was easily their worst showing in the NBA bubble. Previous to that, the Blazers had lost only twice and those two losses were by a total of nine points. After scoring at least 124 in all but one seeding game, they’ve been held to an average of 94 points/game by the Lakers. We like them to bounce back in Game 3 and at the very least keep it close. Game 2 aside, the Lakers have not played all that well in the bubble as they are just 2-8 against the spread with six outright defeats. Offensive efficiency is way down, especially when LeBron James is off the court. They have just two wins by more than three points since the restart and have failed to hit 100 four different times. A second straight blowout seems unlikely, so grab the points. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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08-20-20 | Blazers +7 v. Lakers | Top | 88-111 | Loss | -111 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Portland shocked a lot of people by beating the Lakers 100-93 in Game 1, but not us. This team came into the bubble needing to win almost every game and that’s exactly what they have done. They’ve gone 8-2 in their 10 games with the only two losses coming by a combined nine points. That the Blazers were able to win Game 1 despite a poor offensive night has to scare the Lakers. Portland shot just 39.2% Tuesday night, a far cry from the multiple 124+ point efforts we’ve seen from them in Orlando. As for the Lakers, they are 1-8 ATS in the bubble and struggling to make shots. They haven’t even hit 100 four different times. Their shooting percentage and offensive efficiency, particularly when LeBron James is off the court, has been woeful. We just don’t see how LA is going to win by more than what the oddsmakers are calling for here, if they even win at all tonight. Besides James and Anthony Davis, the rest of the Lakers combined for just 42 points on 32.1% shooting in Game 1. Since the restart, the top seed has ONE win by more than three points. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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08-20-20 | Thunder v. Rockets -2.5 | Top | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON Houston was our Game of the Month on Tuesday and they came through with flying colors, clobbering Oklahoma City by a score of 123-108 and it wasn’t even that close as the Rockets led by 21 going into the fourth. This despite not having the services of Russell Westbrook, but we projected James Harden to have a big game and that’s exactly what happened as “The Beard” delivered a 37-point effort. He’s certainly capable of scoring even more than that and we think he will in Game 2. Even without Westbrook, Houston is the better team here. The Thunder overachieved both before and after the restart, but this could be a quick series if they’re not careful. You’ll notice that OKC is now the underdog after opening as the slightest favorite for Game 1. While priced more appropriately, we still don’t like the Thunder’s chances in this one as Gallinari had a career-high 29 points in Game 1 and that didn’t matter. His chances of matching that number this afternoon are slim at best. The Rockets are simply the better team. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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08-19-20 | 76ers +5 v. Celtics | Top | 101-128 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA Philadelphia lost Game 1 109-101 and failed to cover as 6.5-point underdogs. All told, it wasn’t that disappointing a performance as the Sixers led going into the 4th quarter. That is when they went cold. The good news is they held Boston to just 42% shooting and it took every bit of Jayson Tatum’s career playoff highs of 32 points and 13 rebounds to get the Celtics the ‘W.’ While the 76ers are without Ben Simmons, they still should compete in this series and we like them plus the points in Game 2. Late in Game 1, Gordon Hayward suffered a severe ankle sprain, meaning Boston will be without him for likely four weeks. That’s a big loss. The Celtics are not a deep team. Including Hayward, they have just six players that rate better than average in terms of RPM. They are just 1-4 ATS off the last five ATS wins and we’re going “zig zag” here. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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08-18-20 | Thunder v. Rockets +1.5 | Top | 108-123 | Win | 103 | 47 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston will be without Russell Westbrook for an indefinite period of time, but let’s not forget that Harden fellow and what he’s capable of doing. The Rockets did lose their last three games, but really had nothing to play for and that should be taken into account. Before that, they’d started the bubble 4-1 straight up and against the spread. Oklahoma City went 4-4 in its eight games as well, albeit in much different fashion. They alternated wins and losses the entire way, meaning not one time did they win OR lose back to back games. They are hoping that pattern continues as it would mean a win here. But we feel differently as the Rockets are being undervalued because of the Westbrook absence. Certainly that matters, but Harden has averaged 35.3 points, 9.2 rebounds and 8.7 assists in the bubble with a 53.2 FG%. Two other Rockets have had 40+ point games this year, one of the Austin Rivers’ whose career-high 41 point effort came in the bubble. Houston has enough to get the job done and Oklahoma City hasn’t really had all of its pieces together here in Orlando with Schroeder missing time and Adams hurt. Chris Paul has a hand injury worth monitoring as well. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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08-17-20 | Mavs +6 v. Clippers | Top | 110-118 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DALLAS Dallas is just 3-5 since the restart while the Clippers have gone 5-3. It’s a tough break that a team as talented as the Mavericks fell to the 7-seed and drew a first round matchup with Los Angeles. But it is also a bit of a “tough draw” for the Clippers. The Mavs are one of the top offensive teams in the league and pose a threat that other potential first round opponents (like Utah or Oklahoma City) would not have. These teams met on August 6th and while LA won 126-111, it was a tie game with just over six minutes remaining. That’s with the Clippers shooting exceptionally well and the Mavs having an “off game” at the offensive end. Luka Doncic is averaging a triple double in the bubble with 32 points/game. The Mavericks have averaged 125 points/game since returning and that makes them a “tough out” as an underdog. The spread was only 3.5 when these teams met 11 days ago. Nothing has really changed significantly for either side since then, so the dog screams VALUE. Play on DALLAS AAA |
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08-12-20 | Raptors v. 76ers +8.5 | Top | 125-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHILADELPHIA It’s a battle of backups Wednesday but we’re counting on the Sixers showing a little pride in this early evening matchup against the Raptors. It’s not like Philadelphia has played poorly its last two games, where they have been almost entirely without the services of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. Simmons’ season is now over while Embiid was hurt early in the 124-121 loss to Portland Sunday night. Yesterday saw Philly compete for 3+ quarters against a highly motivated Suns squad. This is a lot of points to lay with a Raptors team that has nothing to play for as they are locked into the Eastern Conference’s second seed. Coming off an impressive win against Milwaukee on Monday, their level of motivation for this one can certainly be called into question. Their last four victories have come by an average of just 7.5 points/game. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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08-10-20 | Thunder v. Suns -3 | Top | 101-128 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 6* on PHOENIX The Suns have been the hottest team in the league since the restart. They’re 5-0 SU/ATS, which has them on the cusp of the Western Conference’s play-in scenario. Finishing 8th and not 9th has its advantages in that you only have to win once (as opposed to twice) to make the playoffs. But right now the Suns just need to keep winning as they are 10th, a full game behind 9th place Portland (won Sunday) and 1.5 games back of 8th place Memphis (lost yesterday) They’ve already beaten four teams with .500 or better records here in Orlando, the latest being Miami by a score of 119-112 - as a 4-point favorite - on Saturday. They were led by Devin Booker’s 35 points. We have to admit that it was a bit eye-opening to see the Suns open as the favorite here and get bet up. But they’ll have more motivation than the Thunder, who also are at the disadvantage of having played yesterday. Oklahoma City won Sunday, 121-103, but don’t put a ton of stock into that as they played Washington (worst team in the bubble). They also made a season-high 18 three-pointers, shooting that won’t be matched today. Unlike all the other teams competing for the 8-seed, Phoenix can claim to have a positive net efficiency rating for the year. This team has the momentum and you should expect them to win Monday afternoon. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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08-09-20 | Rockets -4.5 v. Kings | Top | 129-112 | Win | 100 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston is likely to finish anywhere from 4th to 6th when the “regular season” concludes. Normally, finishing 4th would be a big deal as it would earn you home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. But there is no home court advantage any more. Despite that lack of incentive, we still expect the Rockets to “go off” on Sunday against a Kings team that is prone to far too many defensive lapses. Time is running out on the Kings to finish in a position where they could play themselves into the postseason. The way things stand now, they’d have to jump four teams. It’s not mathematically impossible by any means, however, it’s highly unlikely considering the Kings record thus far is 1-4 and they just lost to Brooklyn by double digits. Houston has beaten both Milwaukee and the Lakers and while LA didn’t have LeBron, the Rockets didn’t have Russell Westbrook in that game either. Westbrook is again expected to sit out here but with James Harden still in the lineup, you can look for Houston to score plenty against the team that’s posted the worst defensive efficiency rating in the league since the restart. The Rockets are off three straight Unders and have gone 6-1 ATS in that situation this season. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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08-09-20 | 76ers v. Blazers -2 | Top | 121-124 | Win | 100 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PORTLAND Saturday was a blown opportunity for the Blazers as they led a lead get away and lost to the Clippers, who were playing without Kawhi Leonard. This leaves them 1.5 games behind Memphis for the 8th spot in the West. The Grizzlies are heavy underdogs to the Raptors today, so a win here could very well pull Portland back within one-half game. All they have to do is finish 9th to force a play-in but finishing 8th has its advantages. Also the Blazers must worry about all the teams that are narrowly behind them as finishing 9th is far from a given. Bottom line is that today is “must-win” territory against a Sixers team that was already offensively challenged before losing Ben Simmons. Philadelphia is 3-1 SU in the bubble, but only 1-3 ATS. This will be the first time that the 76ers have been an underdog in a game. They are just 6-16 SU in the underdog role for the season and among those still playing, they have the worst road record of any team besides Washington. Portland really has to have this game. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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08-07-20 | Celtics v. Raptors -2.5 | Top | 122-100 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO The defending NBA Champion Raptors don’t get the respect they deserve, but they are very likely to get the East’s #2 seed. They can clinch that position with a win tonight over Boston, who is in the #3 spot and likely to finish there. Going back to before the lockdown, Toronto has won seven in a row. That is the longest active win streak in the NBA. They’ve won their three games in Orlando by holding opponents to an average of 98 points/game. That’s remarkable considering how much scoring we’ve seen in the bubble. Even scarier is that Kyle Lowry has shot just 4 for 17 from the field the last two games. Look for his shooting to improve tonight. Boston was red hot shooting the ball Tuesday (56.8 FG%!) but that was against a weak Brooklyn team. The Celtics have issues defending as they’ve given up 112 points in every game so far. Their interior defense was a big question mark heading into the restart and remain so. The Raptors are 29-19 ATS as favorites this season. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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08-06-20 | Pacers v. Suns +3 | Top | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHOENIX Phoenix shocked the Clippers on Tuesday, winning the game outright, 117-115 as a 9.5-point underdog. While they did need a Devin Booker “walkoff,” the Suns led the game most of the way and were pretty impressive. They’re now 3-0 since the restart with wins over two playoff teams (Dallas, Clippers) as they try and force their way into a play-in scenario for the 8-seed. Indiana is also 3-0 SU/ATS in the bubble as Victor Oladipo reversed course on a prior decision and has decided to play here in Orlando. The Pacers looked very good in their last game, a 120-109 win over Orlando, but it’s worth mentioning they’ve yet to face a team from the West here in the bubble. The Pacers and Suns have a common win over Washington, but the Suns other two wins (Dallas, Clippers) are far more impressive than the Pacers’ (Philly, Orlando). The Suns did lose badly to the Pacers at home back in January, but are 15-7 ATS this year when seeking revenge for a home defeat. We think the Suns are a good value here. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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08-04-20 | Rockets v. Blazers +4.5 | Top | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Houston is 2-0 since the restart with wins over Dallas and Milwaukee. Impressive as that sounds, the Rockets trailed by double digits in both games. They were down 11 entering the 4th quarter vs. the Mavericks and needed all of James Harden’s 49 points to pull out a 152-149 overtime victory. Against the Bucks, the much maligned defense once again stepped up late. It is impressive that the Rockets could beat the Bucks despite shooting below 40% but we also don’t think they can keep winning in the manner we’ve seen the first two games. Portland has also played two close games, but split the pair. They were down big to Boston on Sunday, but fought back to make it only a 4-point loss. That was after they beat Memphis in overtime in the first game. Currently in ninth place in the Western Conference, the Blazers are well within the four-games of 8th place Memphis to force a play-in series. Still they really could use the win here as they neck and neck with San Antonio for ninth place. Portland beat Houston twice in the regular season so they’re capable of winning outright again.They are healthier now than they were back then. The Rockets are 2-5 ATS this year coming off an upset win. Play on PORTLAND AAA |
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08-03-20 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -4 | Top | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEW ORLEANS Two teams that are 0-2 since the restart will go at it Monday in Orlando. Memphis faces the more uphill climb here. They played yesterday. It was a 108-106 to the Spurs, a bit of a “double whammy” as that result allowed the Spurs to move within two games of the eighth place Grizzlies. Many thought the Pelicans were going to be the team to chase the Grizz down, but obviously they’re trending in a different direction. It’s a case of Zion Williamson not playing much and going against two good teams. The Pelicans blew a double digit loss vs. Utah, then were embarrassed by the Clippers. Still those are both top four teams in the Western Conference. The teams Memphis lost to are 9th and 10th. This is a must win for the Pelicans, who are 3.5 back of the Grizzlies. With Memphis just 24 hours removed from a tough 2-point loss, they’re in a tough spot. They also played an overtime game Friday. The Pelicans beat the Grizzlies both times they played in the regular season. Both wins were by double digits. The Pelicans have covered 13 of their last 16 vs. teams with winning records. Look for Williamson to be more of a factor today.This team was embarrassed Saturday and will want to make up for that. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA |
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08-02-20 | Bucks v. Rockets +4.5 | Top | 116-120 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston needed every bit of James Harden’s 49 points on Friday to overcome a terrible defensive effort in what ended up being a 153-149 overtime win over Dallas. The Rockets trailed by double digits entering the 4th Quarter, but were then able to hold the Mavericks to just 30 points over the final 17 minutes. The fact Houston played so poorly on the defensive end and had to overcome a late deficit should not bias you here though. While they’re facing Milwaukee, the Bucks won’t have guards Eric Bledsoe and Pat Connaughton, so there is a depth issue. The Bucks looked good against Boston Friday, winning 119-112, though Giannis Antetounkmpo probably should have gotten ejected. Also the Bucks raced to a 17-2 lead out of the game, which was the difference in the game. Houston won’t shoot as poorly as the Celtics did (40.7%) and an offensive team like this getting points is a great opportunity. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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08-01-20 | Jazz v. Thunder -1.5 | Top | 94-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OKC The Jazz have already played once, a 106-104 come from behind win over the Pelicans. That preserved their status as the West’s 4th place team for the meantime but a lot can change over the next seven games as they are part of a five-team mess separated by just 3.5 games. Also in that group is Oklahoma City, who has not played yet. The Thunder are 2-0 ATS vs. the Jazz this year, part of an overall 39-24-1 mark at the betting window that is the league’s best. Most impressive of all is that the Thunder are 23-8 ATS on the road. Utah winning that game Thursday night should not make you forget that they trailed by as much as 16 points or that they are without second leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic, whose 41.4% three-point shooting will sorely be missed. 10* OKLAHOMA CITY AAA |
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03-11-20 | St. Joe's v. George Mason -4.5 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GMU The Atlantic 10 Tournament has a clear favorite in Dayton and everybody else probably needs to win this thing in order to make the Big Dance. The longest “road to hoe” belongs to the bottom four, a group which both St. Joseph’s and George Mason can claim to be a part of. These two squads have combined for a total of five wins going back to late January. George Mason has three to St. Joe’s two, the difference being a 62-55 head to head win back on February 22nd. The Patriots just missed out on covering that day as they were 8.5-point favorites. But we like them with a small number attached to them today. Regardless if it’s a true road game or on a neutral court, St. Joe’s has just two wins away from home all season. They give up almost 80 points/game as well. George Mason has won and covered all three of its games in a neutral setting this year. They held St. Joe’s to 33.9% shooting in the regular season game. Play on GEORGE MASON AAA |
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03-10-20 | Magic v. Grizzlies -2 | Top | 120-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MEMPHIS Perhaps no team in the entire NBA has defied expectations more than Memphis Grizzlies have. Projected to win only 27 games this season, they’ve already surpassed that number (they’ve won 32 games) and seem poised to make the playoffs as the 8-seed in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies aren’t favored very often, but be sure to take them when they are. Not only do they boast a 14-4 straight up record in the chalk role, they are also 13-5 against the spread. Tonight they host an Orlando team that is 7-1 ATS its last eight games and off a big upset win in Houston. But considering that was only the sixth time the Magic won as an underdog this year, we will gladly lay the short number in this game. Tonight marks the Magic’s 4th road game in the past 7 nights. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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03-10-20 | North Carolina -3.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 78-56 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNC North Carolina has endured one of the worst single season free falls that we have ever seen. After starting the 2019-20 season 5-0 and ranked in the Top 10, they ended up losing 18 of their final 26 regular season games and in a three-way tie for last in the ACC. But now the ACC Tournament begins and that gives the Tar Heels a “clean slate.” Before losing the final regular season game at Duke, UNC had won and covered its last three games. So there were some signs of a potential breakthrough. The first round tournament opponent is Virginia Tech. They lost to the Hokies 79-77 in January, but did cover the 7.5-point spot. This time UNC is favored as the game isn’t in Blacksburg. Since it defeated UNC, Va Tech has won just twice in 12 games. They are 3-8 straight up and against the spread as underdogs. This spot screams “Tar Heels!” Play on NORTH CAROLINA AAA |
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03-09-20 | Raptors +4.5 v. Jazz | Top | 101-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Toronto won last night in Sacramento 118-113. Playing in the second night of a back to back should not prevent them from being able to win again tonight. The Raptors have won three straight on this road trip, previously winning in Phoenix and Golden State. It’ll be a tougher test tonight in Utah as the Jazz have won five in a row, the last four all coming on the road. But our view is that the better team is getting points and that’s something we can’t look past. Earlier in the year, they crushed the Jazz by 20. They led that game by 40 at halftime! While it was in Toronto, the Raptors are a strong 22-9 in their road games. Utah has been inconsistent this year, a point driven home by the fact this current 5-game run was preceded by a 4-game losing streak. They are just 5-11-1 ATS their past 17 games with only one cover as a favorite in the last eight tries. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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03-09-20 | Western Michigan v. Toledo -8.5 | Top | 73-76 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TOLEDO The MAC Tournament gets underway tonight. All four first round games are played on campuses before things shift to Cleveland for the quarterfinals on Thursday. Toledo is the home team for this matchup. While the Rockets are only 3-11 ATS at home this season, one of those covers came against Western Michigan, the team they’ll be facing here. They also won at Western Michigan a couple of weeks ago. That made it six straight wins over the Broncos and UT is 5-1 ATS in those same games. The Rockets closed the regular season on a strong 4-1 SU/ATS run, the only loss coming on the road. Western Michigan did not close strong as they’ve lost six of eight with the only two wins both coming in Kalamazoo. WMU is just 3-11 SU on the road. The Broncos scored only 59 points in both regular season matchups vs. Toledo and anything resembling that same defensive effort will bring home an easy ATS win here for the home team. We believe they get the job done as WMU drops to 1-12 ATS its last 13 Monday games! Play on TOLEDO AAA |
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03-09-20 | Illinois-Chicago v. Wright State -6 | Top | 73-56 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WRIGHT ST The Horizon League Tournament moves to Indianapolis tonight for a pair of semifinal matchups. The one we’re targeting sees the top seed Wright State facing the #4 seed Illinois-Chicago. While Wright State did beat UIC pretty big (17 points) at home in the regular season, they did lose 76-72 as 6.5-point road favorites in the first meeting of the year. So don’t look for the Raiders to take this game lightly. Because they were regular season champs, Wright State got a double bye into the semifinals whereas UIC has had to win twice to get here. Both of those wins for UIC came at home. The Flames are going to have to figure out a way to defend a Wright State team that comes in averaging more than 81 points/game. If that’s not enough, Wright State has had nine days off. The Raiders have gone 5-1 ATS in Horizon League Tourney games the past two seasons and that includes a pair of semifinal victories. Look for them to easily move on to their third straight Final. Play on WRIGHT STATE AAA |
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03-08-20 | Magic +9.5 v. Rockets | Top | 126-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ORLANDO Orlando has seen a recent surge in scoring, leading to their last 10 games all going Over the total. They just hung 132 points in a win at Minnesota Friday night and are now 6-1 ATS the last seven games. Tonight they are getting a generous number of points from a Houston team that’s moving in the WRONG direction. The Rockets were the hottest team in the league not long ago but have gone 0-3 straight up and against the spread in March. Two of those losses came to the Knicks and Hornets, teams far worse off than Magic right now. Despite giving up more points than usual lately, the Magic are still top five in the league in fewest points allowed for the season. They give up 107.2 per game. Orlando has covered its last five road games. Play on ORLANDO AAA |
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03-08-20 | Delaware +1.5 v. College of Charleston | Top | 79-67 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DELAWARE Quarterfinal action in the CAA here with Delaware taking on Charleston. The winner of this game is likely to play top seed Hofstra in the semifinals tomorrow. Delaware finished with a better overall record than Charleston this year (21-10 vs. 17-13). However Charleston is the higher seed as both were 11-7 in conference play and they had the tiebreaker. The tiebreaker was of course head to head play. Charleston beat Delaware twice this season and is a perfect 6-0 the last six meetings. They are 6-0 ATS in those games as well. That sets this up to be a major revenge situation for the Blue Hens. Both games vs. Charleston this year saw Delaware shoot poorly. They made just over 40% of their FGA in each game. That’s irregular. For the season, the Blue Hens are shooting over 48%. We’ll say they shoot a lot better today. The Blue Hens are also 5-1 ATS in their past six neutral court games. Play on DELAWARE AAA |
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03-07-20 | Seton Hall v. Creighton -3.5 | Top | 60-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CREIGHTON This is the game that will determine the Big East’s regular season champion. It’s Seton Hall’s title to lose as the 8th ranked Pirates come into Saturday with a one-game advantage over #11 Creighton. But the Bluejays have the tiebreaker having already gone on the road and beat the Pirates 87-82 last month. Creighton has lost only once in its last seven games and that was when we played against them last Sunday at St. John’s. Consider that result to be an anomaly as the Bluejays quickly bounced back with a 91-point effort here at home vs. Georgetown on Wednesday. They’ve now won 10 of 12 overall and are 17-1 straight up at home where they are averaging a very healthy 83.5 points per game. Seton Hall can only blame itself for being in this position as they left the door open by losing to Villanova at home Wednesday night. The Pirates couldn’t stop Creighton from scoring a ton the first meeting. There’s no reason to believe they’ll be able to stop them here. Play on CREIGHTON AAA |
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03-07-20 | Auburn v. Tennessee -2.5 | Top | 85-63 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TENNESSEE Tennessee rallied back from a 17-point deficit to stun #6 Kentucky on the road Tuesday. For them, it had to feel like “just desserts” given that they blew a 17-point lead and lost earlier this year. That was to Auburn, who they’ll face here in the final regular season game of the year. This is a great shot for the Volunteers to post their second straight win over a ranked opponent, although this one would not be considered an upset. For the third time this season, Auburn has lost two straight. They’ve yet to lose three in a row but have lost four of their last six including an 0-3 road record. Wednesday saw them lose at home to Texas A&M as a 12-point favorite. Tennessee has had an extra day to prepare here and with this being Senior Day, you’ve got to think they’ll come out as the more motivated side in this contest. Auburn is just 2-7 ATS on the road this year and will have to figure out a way to score against a team that’s giving up less than 60 points per game at home. We don’t think they figure it out. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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03-06-20 | Ohio v. Miami-OH -1.5 | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Not much on the line here in the final regular season game for Ohio and Miami, so we’ll defer to the home side on “Senior Night.” The teams have played well of late. Ohio is 9-2 ATS its last 11 games and 5-0 ATS the last five. But they still have a losing record in MAC play at 7-10 straight up. Miami is in last place at 5-12 SU, but they’ve won their last two home games. Tonight is a chance for the RedHawks to avenge their worst loss of the season, which took place in Athens on February 8th. Ohio won that day 77-46. But Miami is 6-1 ATS since that loss. While they are 1-11 SU on the road this year, they are 10-5 SU at home. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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03-06-20 | Kent State v. Akron -6.5 | Top | 76-79 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Akron Rivals Kent State and Akron close out their respective regular seasons against one another here and there’s plenty at stake. Akron has surged to the top of the MAC East by winning seven of its last eight games and can clinch the top seed in the conference tournament with a win here. Seeing as they also have revenge for a one-point loss they suffered at Kent State on January 31st, the Zips’ motivation ought to be at a season-high tonight. We look for them to get the job done as they’ve gone an impressive 14-2 at home this year while allowing only 62.7 points per contest. Since beating Akron in the first go around, Kent State has a losing record and hasn’t posted back to back wins. They just beat Bowling Green at home on Tuesday. But on the road the Golden Flashes tend to struggle as their scoring average dips from 81.9 at home down to 68.1. They are also just 2-6 ATS off a league win this year. Play on AKRON AAA |
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03-05-20 | Raptors v. Warriors +8 | Top | 121-113 | Push | 0 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the WARRIORS Steph Curry returns tonight to a Warriors team that is nothing like it’s been at any point in the last five seasons. The three-time NBA champs have the worst record in the league at 14-48. Golden State has won only five times in 2020, though two of those have come in the last three games. Perhaps motivated by the former MVP’s impending return, Curry’s teammates won in Denver two nights ago 116-110 as a 16-point underdog. Tonight, in a rematch of last year’s Finals, the Warriors face the Raptors. We expect this to be one of the high points of a lost season in Golden State. Yes, to expect Curry to play at an MVP-level right away would be foolish. But he doesn’t need to. The Warriors are still clear underdogs and only need to keep it close. Toronto has injuries as well with Fred Van Vleet and Serge Ibaka both expected not to play. Before beating Phoenix Tuesday, the Raptors had lost three straight and four of six. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA |
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03-05-20 | Boise State v. UNLV -2 | Top | 67-61 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNLV UNLV hosts Boise State in the second of four Mountain West Tournament quarterfinals today. We like the tourney hosts for a variety of reasons here, namely that they come in hot. Five straight wins and covers have the Rebels primed to make a little noise this weekend and remember they are the only team to beat top seed San Diego State this entire season! The Runnin’ Rebels just beat Boise State here at the Thomas & Mack Center on Feb 26th, 76-66 as two-point favorites. They led by 12 at halftime and coasted from there. Boise State is just 4-8 on the road this season. The loss at UNLV was their regular season finale while the Rebels have since picked up a dominant 92-69 win at San Jose State. Their recent form can’t be ignored here and even if Long (knee) can’t go, they remain a safe bet. After all, they have covered 11 of the 16 times they have been a favorite in this season. Play on UNLV AAA |
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03-04-20 | Grizzlies v. Nets -2 | Top | 118-79 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BROOKLYN Brooklyn is off a huge win last night as they came back from a 17-point deficit at the start of the fourth quarter to upset Boston 129-120 in overtime. They were 6.5 point underdogs and led by Caris LeVert’s 51 points. Now they face a quick turnaround to host Memphis. Most will look at this as a bad spot for the Nets, but they are at home. The Grizzlies have a losing record away from home and while they are off 39-point road win, it was against Atlanta. They were actually an underdog in that game due to multiple players being injured. Those same players - Brandon Clarke and Jaren Jackson - are both out tonight as well. The Grizzlies were fortunate to get a very balanced offensive attack against Atlanta (9 players in double figures!) but can’t count on that every night. Nor can they count on every opponent shooting as poorly as Atlanta did (32.5%!). Play on BROOKLYN AAA |
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03-02-20 | Jazz -7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 126-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH Give credit to Cleveland for playing better since the firing of former coach John Beilein. They’ve even posted home wins against the likes of Miami and Philadelphia. But those teams seem to be unique in how much they struggle on the road. Utah, who finally ended its losing streak (at four games) Friday, should have little difficulty coming in here and winning. The Cavs have lost two in a row, to New Orleans and Indiana. They still rate as one of the league’s worst teams. Utah winning its last game 129-119 over Washington should jumpstart a nice run for them as they fight for position in the Western Conference. They are the more rested team here and should put up another big total like they did vs. Washington. The Cavs are last in the league in defensive efficiency (Wizards are second to last). Donovan Mitchell has scored 30 or more in the last four games for Utah and should continue that streak in a big win tonight. Play on UTAH AAA |
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03-02-20 | NC State v. Duke -12.5 | Top | 69-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DUKE Duke lost to Virginia Saturday, its second loss in a row and third in the last four games. But the one constant in those three defeats is that they all took place on the road. We were on the right side of that Virginia game Saturday with the Blue Devils getting held to a season-low 50 points. They faltered down the stretch yet again, just like they did against Wake Forest a few days prior. But back at Cameron Indoor, we look for the Blue Devils to make a statement tonight on ESPN. They are winning by more than 21 points/game at home this season. This is also a very big revenge spot. Duke lost to NC State by 22 two weeks ago in Raleigh. That was their worst loss of the season and something the players haven’t forgotten. This will be the first time this year that the Blue Devils take the floor with in-season revenge. They have won 10 of the last 11 times they’ve been seeking revenge for a road loss, covering the spread seven times. NC State is 0-3 ATS since the upset of Duke and lost at North Carolina. Play on DUKE AAA |
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03-01-20 | 76ers +13 v. Clippers | Top | 130-136 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA We all know about the Sixers’ struggles on the road. While the league’s preeminent home team (28-2 SU at home!), Philly is only 9-21 straight up in road games. That difference of -19 (home vs. road wins) is seven games more than the team with the second biggest split. Today they are at the Clippers, who have won three straight games by double digits. Two were at home and those margins of victory were 27 and 29 points. Despite all of this, we are grabbing the big number with the road dog. You’re not likely to get this many points with the Sixers in any game all season. Obviously that has to do with the fact Joel Embiid will miss the game with a shoulder injury. Ben Simmons is out too. But still this is too many points. The Clippers can have “off-nights” defensively and the Sixers have still won 6 out of their last 8 games. There’s been just one time all season that LA covered four in a row and it was back in December. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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03-01-20 | Creighton v. St. John's +5.5 | Top | 71-91 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ST. JOHN'S Creighton and St. John’s are in very different places as we approach the final week of the regular season. Creighton has surged to the top of the Big East by winning and covering its last five games. Plus they are 9-1 SU L10. St. John’s lost leading scorer Mustapha Heron and is 2-9 straight up its last 11 games (0-3 L3) as well as 1-6 against the spread its last seven. But the good news for St. John’s Sunday is they are playing at home and they are 3-0 both straight up and against the spread this year when off three consecutive losses. Even without Heron, we like their chances today due to the fact Creighton simply isn’t the same team on the road that they are at home. Scoring drops from 83.1 points/game down to 72.5 and that should be enough for St. John’s to at least earn itself the cover here. They are 5-1 ATS their last six times as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points including a perfect 3-0 this season. Play on ST. JOHN’S AAA |
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02-29-20 | Duke v. Virginia +3.5 | Top | 50-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on VIRGINIA Duke has tasted defeat twice in its past three games and both losses came on the road. The most recent was a real stunner as they gave up 113 points in a double overtime loss to Wake Forest. The Blue Devils have now failed to cover in four straight road games. Tonight they are at defending National Champ Virginia. While the champs may not be the same team they were last year, they are rounding into form at the right time. It’s five straight wins by the Cavaliers and while four of those have been by three points or less, the offense has increased to 61.4 points/game. That may not sound like much (and it isn’t!) but when you are allowing only 49.5 points/game at home, then it’s plenty. Note Duke is only 4-12 ATS this season after scoring 80 or more points the previous game. Virginia has been a home underdog only one other time all year and they won that game (vs. Florida State) by five. They are 6-2 ATS the last three seasons when getting points. Led by their outstanding defense, Virginia gets the cash here. Play on VIRGINIA AAA |
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02-28-20 | Wizards v. Jazz -10 | Top | 119-129 | Push | 0 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH A long homestand typically provides a team an opportunity to start rolling, but in the case of the current one for the Utah Jazz, that certainly hasn’t been the case. The last four games have all ended with them on the “short end of the stick.” Adding insult to injury, they were favored in all four games. But tonight should be a reprieve with Washington paying a visit. The Wizards are off a win, but that was against a Nets team that is playing without Kyrie Irving. The two games before that, the Wizards got 50+ point games from Bradley Beal and still lost! On January 12th, the Jazz went to D.C. and won 127-116 as 6.5-point favorites. Winning by more at home shouldn’t prove too difficult. The Wizards are 7-21 SU on the road and it can’t be stressed enough just how bad they have been defensively. They are giving up an average of 123.5 points in road games, the highest such average in the league. Expect a big bounce back effort from the home team tonight. Play on UTAH AAA |
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02-27-20 | South Dakota State v. North Dakota State -4 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on North Dakota St This is perhaps the biggest regular season game the Summit League will see all year as second place North Dakota State hosts first place South Dakota State. The road team has won eight straight to climb into the pole position and that win streak started with a win over the Bison back on January 22nd. But it was only a five point win in which the Jackrabbits shot an amazing 55.8% from the field and made 24 of 38 shots inside the arc. That will not happen again on the road as ND State is the team more likely to “go off” offensively this time as they are averaging 81.4 points/game at home. The Bison had their own win streak stopped at seven games last Saturday with a three point loss at North Dakota. Maybe they were looking ahead to this showdown? Regardless, they are now 1.5 games back of South Dakota State, which makes tonight a “must-win.” The Bison are 11-1 on their home floor this year. All eight of South Dakota State’s losses this year have been on the road. Play on NORTH DAKOTA STATE AAA |
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02-26-20 | 76ers v. Cavs +7.5 | Top | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CLEVELAND On Monday, Cleveland hosted a top 5 team in the East (Miami) whose play dips rather significantly on the road. Sure enough, the Cavs beat the Heat in overtime, 125-119 as a 6.5-point home underdog. It was a rather shocking come from behind effort as the Cavs trailed by 19 going into the fourth quarter. Of course, the Heat’s road woes are well documented. We bring this up because the team Cleveland hosts tonight sees an even more dramatic dropoff when they are on the road and that’s Philadelphia. The Sixers are a league-best 27-2 straight up at home. But their road record is 9-20. That is easily the biggest gap any team in the league has when it comes to home vs. road wins. So can Cleveland pull the same trick twice in a row? Not sure about them winning straight up tonight, but we do like the points as the 76ers are 1-9 ATS in road games where the total is 220 or higher. They are 4-8-1 ATS as a road favorite with six outright losses. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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02-26-20 | Rutgers v. Penn State -6 | Top | 64-65 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PENN ST Yet another play from the Big 10 (had Michigan St last night), so we’ll mention again just how deep this conference is as it looks like 10 teams will be sent to the NCAA Tournament. But despite the depth, there are advantages to be had, especially when certain teams play on the road. We didn’t give Iowa much of a chance last night in East Lansing and the same holds true tonight for Rutgers in State College, PA. To say the Scarlet Knights have struggled on the road in Big 10 play would be putting it mildly. They have lost five straight Big 10 road games and six of seven overall with the one win coming against Nebraska. Rutgers is now 1-9 in road or neutral site games for the 2019-20 season. They just lost by eight at Wisconsin on Sunday. While the Big 10 may be deep, some teams are simply better than others and that’s the case with Penn State here as the Nittany Lions are a legit top 20 team that plays really good defense. Back to back losses (to Indiana & Illinois) have taken some wind out of their sails, but you’re still looking at a team that’s 13-2 SU at home with a point differential of +14.8 per game. They began February on a 5-0 SU/ATS tear and should end the month with a big win here. Play on PENN STATE AAA |
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02-25-20 | Hornets v. Pacers -10.5 | Top | 80-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on INDIANA Both of these teams just got their tails kicked in. For Charlotte, it was Saturday when they lost at home to Brooklyn by 29 points, a real “bad look” considering the Nets are now without Kyrie Irving. Still, in terms of margin, the loss wasn’t as bad as what Indiana suffered Sunday in Toronto as they went down 127-81. One of the teams will get to bounce back from the embarrassing defeat Monday and our money is on the Pacers as not only are they playing at home, they are also simply the much better basketball team at this juncture. Even with three consecutive upsets straddling the All-Star Break, the Hornets are still only 4-14 straight up their past 18 games and when they lose it’s generally by a wide margin. The Hornets’ record in games decided by 10 points or more is a lousy 4-24 straight up. They are also just 2-19 vs. teams that have winning records while going 5-14-2 against the spread. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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02-25-20 | Iowa v. Michigan State -8 | Top | 70-78 | Push | 0 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MICHIGAN ST Yet another quality Big 10 matchup Tuesday and while it’s a battle of Top 25 teams, we actually think things will end up rather lopsided here in East Lansing. Despite a less than stellar February, Sparty remains an elite team, one that is far better than its #24 ranking. Make no mistake about it, there might not be more than 5-7 teams that would be favored over Michigan State come Tournament time. Tom Izzo’s bunch got the confidence-boosting win it needed last Thursday when they went to Nebraska and blew out the Cornhuskers 86-65. Now they host Iowa, who we have serious doubts about on the defensive end of the floor. Of all the teams currently ranked in the Top 25, the Hawkeyes have the worst efficiency rating defensively. We grabbed them laying a small number vs. Ohio State last Thursday. However, that was at home. They’ve gone just 1-16 straight up and 4-13 against the spread their past 17 visits to East Lansing and this number tells you to disregard the rankings. Iowa had lost three straight road games before a miracle comeback at Minnesota nine days ago. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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02-24-20 | Hawks v. 76ers -8 | Top | 112-129 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHILADELPHIA The Sixers are back home Monday and you should know what that means. It’s a virtual guarantee that they’ll play better than they did Saturday night in Milwaukee when they lost 119-98. That loss dropped Philly to 9-20 in road games. They are 26-2 at home. Throw in the fact that they go from facing the league’s best team to (maybe) its worst and it should be a complete “reversal of fortune” here. While the Hawks are 2-0 since returning from the All Star Break, each of those wins came at home. They have only six road wins all year and only one in the last 30 days. Philadelphia is playing with revenge tonight as well. They lost in Atlanta last month. (They also won there early in the season). The Sixers are an impressive +10.0 points/game compared to their opponents here at home. They are 6-0 ATS in home games with a total of 220 or higher (total here is currently 229). Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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02-23-20 | Stanford v. Washington State +3.5 | Top | 75-57 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON ST Stanford stopped the bleeding with a 72-64 upset of Washington on Thursday. But that singular win doesn’t change the fact that the Cardinal had previously lost seven of eight, which obviously put a severe damper on their NCAA Tournament hopes. Tonight they are at Washington State, a matchup the Cardinal likely feels pretty good about. But this one is trickier than it looks. Yes, Wazzu has lost three in a row overall and was just beaten here in Pullman by Cal Thursday. The Cougs were 6.5-point favorites in that loss too. But they remain 11-4 at the Paloose. They’ve got some big time revenge for a 26 point defeat suffered in Palo Alto earlier in the year. Stanford shot 61% in that game, Washington State was under 40%. It’ll be a lot different this time as we conclude by pointing out that Wazzu is a perfect 3-0 against the spread this year as a home underdog of three points or less. Play on WASHINGTON STATE AAA |
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02-23-20 | Rutgers v. Wisconsin -4.5 | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WISCONSIN Whenever it’s time to analyze one of these Big 10 matchups, we start by pointing out the incredible depth in the conference. There could be as many as 11 teams making the NCAA Tournament. Wisconsin and Rutgers are among them. Right now though the Badgers are simply hotter. They’ve won three in a row, taking advantage of a somewhat “relaxed” schedule for this time of year. Today marks just the fourth game for the Badgers in the past 14 days. They beat Purdue Tuesday, continuing a string of impressive showings here in Madison that has seen them defeat the likes of Maryland, Michigan State and Ohio State. Rutgers just suffered its first home loss of the season, at the hands of Michigan, and we look for that to have an effect on them today. The Scarlet Knights have lost four of six overall. They have just ONE road win all season. Play on WISCONSIN AAA |
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02-22-20 | Oregon +5 v. Arizona | Top | 73-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OREGON Crucial game in the Pac 12 tonight for both teams, but particularly for Oregon as they are off a loss and a game back of Arizona in the win column. The Ducks go to Tucson Saturday night with a higher ranking for now (#14 vs. #24), but they really can’t afford another loss here. Back on January 9th, the Ducks did beat Arizona 74-73 in a close call in Eugene. Arizona comes into the rematch as a decided favorite having won three straight. They seem overvalued though in what we view as a pretty even matchup. Oregon has been an underdog just three times all season and this is the first time in over a month. Let’s not forget that it wasn’t too long ago that Arizona lost - by double digits - here at home to UCLA. The Wildcats are just 9-21 ATS in Saturday games the last three seasons. This is one of those games where you just want to play the underdog as an outright win is far more likely than a blowout by the favorite. Play on OREGON AAA |
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02-22-20 | 76ers +8.5 v. Bucks | Top | 98-119 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA We all know about how the Sixers perform on the road relative to how they do at home. On Thursday, they defeated the Brooklyn Nets by a score of 112-104. That improved their already league-best home record to 26-2 straight up. However, they’ve gone just 9-19 straight up on the road and tonight finds them playing in Milwaukee. Despite this seemingly “insurmountable” task the 76ers are facing, we like them to come through with the cash tonight on ABC. Impressive as they have been, the Bucks cannot possibly continue to win by these large margins. What’s interesting is that they have played only 17 games all season against teams that have winning records (fewest in the league). They are 10-7 straight up in those games and 7-10 against the spread. They’ve lost only 1 time all year to a team with a losing record. A couple of weeks ago Philly came here and lost by 11. We think they’ll do better this time as this game means more to them than it does to the Bucks. They did beat the Bucks earlier in the year (at home). Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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02-22-20 | UCLA v. Colorado -10 | Top | 70-63 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO Colorado may not be the “best” team in the Pac 12 this year but they have been the most consistent. As a result, they are the ones in first place, not Arizona nor Oregon. The Buffaloes are ranked 18th in the country and just held off USC for a 70-66 win on Thursday. They get to stay in Boulder for the weekend as now it’s UCLA that will pay a visit. The Bruins have not been consistent in the first year under Mick Cronin and we like this opportunity to fade as they are coming off an upset win at Utah a little less than 48 hours ago. The chances UCLA records two straight upset wins on the road seems very unlikely, even though right now is the hottest that the Bruins have been all season. They’ve won four in a row, starting with a win at Arizona. But Colorado is just too tough here as they have a 13-2 SU home record and give up only 61.9 points/game. Motivation will be high as this is the final home game of the season (Senior Night!) and they actually lost at UCLA by 4 points back in January. Revenge will be sweet this afternoon. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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02-21-20 | Spurs v. Jazz -7 | Top | 113-104 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH The Spurs were done a favor last night as Memphis lost, meaning San Antonio is now within 3.5 games of the 8th (and final) playoff spot out West. Utah has its eyes on a bigger prize as they went into the All Star Break 4th in the conference and on a 4-game win streak. The last three wins were against Houston, Dallas and Miami and the Jazz covered all three. This is a step down in class from those teams, all of which are solidly in the playoff mix. Two of the wins (Houston, Dallas) even came on the road. Speaking of the road, it has been unkind to San Antonio. The annual “Rodeo Road Trip” began on Feb 3rd and has seen the Spurs go 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS with the only straight up win coming at Oklahoma City right before the break. Utah has a big edge defensively in this matchup as they give up only 104.1 points/game at home while SA allows 116.4 on the road. Utah is 20-5 at home while SA is 9-19 on the road. This is the Spurs first visit to Salt Lake City this season and the Jazz have revenge for losing as a five-point favorite in the Alamo last month. Play on UTAH AAA |
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02-20-20 | Grizzlies v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 125-129 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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02-20-20 | Ohio State v. Iowa -2.5 | Top | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Iowa We had some discussion about the Big 10 yesterday. While we came out on the wrong side of that game (Indiana-Minnesota), we’re back at it again, this time with two of the likely 10 teams that the conference will send to the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State was once ranked as high as #2 in the polls. A bad January dropped the Buckeyes standing precipitously, however, they have since rallied by winning five of their last six games. Iowa has alternated wins and losses over the last six games and is off a come from behind win at Minnesota. While recent form may be better for OSU, this game still takes place in Iowa City where the Hawkeyes have lost only one time all year and that was back in the second game. Iowa boasts one of the most efficient offenses in the country and Ohio State is only .500 overall in Big 10 play and 3-5 on the road. The Hawkeyes are 10-2 ATS at Carver Arena. Seems logical to lay the short number here. Play on IOWA AAA |
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02-19-20 | Indiana v. Minnesota -5.5 | Top | 68-56 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA The Big 10 will obviously be sending a lot of teams to the NCAA Tournament. Right now, if certain “bracketologists” are to be believed, the number of teams is 10. Only one other conference is likely to send more than five. Interestingly enough, neither Indiana nor Minnesota are among those 10 even though both grade out favorably against most teams from other conferences. In the case of Minnesota, a 12-12 WL record does them no favors. However, you can’t tell us that the Golden Gophers aren’t among the top 35 teams in the country. Four losses in the last five games, particularly the one vs. Iowa on Sunday, have really stung. But getting a chance to host an Indiana team that is 1-5 straight up and against the spread its last six games is an opportunity the Gophers can surely cash in on. Indiana is a dreadful 1-6 ATS in road games. They’ve lost 23 of 30 road games the last three seasons. The loss to Iowa on Sunday was just the second time Minnesota lost as a favorite this year (8-3 ATS) and they are 5-1 ATS after being held under 60 points. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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02-19-20 | East Carolina v. Memphis -12.5 | Top | 73-77 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MEMPHIS There’s significant hand-wringing now over Memphis’ chances to make the NCAA Tournament. A team firmly on the “bubble” all season, the Tigers have gone out and lost three straight. Right now, no one seems to be considering Penny Hardaway’s team as being worthy of the Big Dance and without a really strong finish to the regular season, it’s difficult to imagine that changing. It is worth mentioning though that this three-game losing streak has been nothing but close games. The three losses have all been by six points or less and by a total of only 11 points. Tonight, Memphis has a golden opportunity to take its frustrations out on a lesser opponent, that being East Carolina, who is just 7-13 ATS when getting 12.5 or more on the road. The Pirates are in second to last in the American with a 4-9 conference record and have been beaten by double digits each of the last two times out. Their only conference wins since January 11th both were against Tulane, the last place team in the American. Memphis wins by an average of 17 points/game at home. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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02-18-20 | Kentucky v. LSU -2.5 | Top | 79-76 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LSU It wasn’t that long ago where LSU was the lone unbeaten team in SEC play and feeling really good about itself. But three losses in the past four games have dropped the Tigers out of the Top 25 and one game back of Kentucky in the SEC. But those three losses the Tigers recently suffered all have one thing in common and that’s they all took place on the road. In Baton Rouge, this team is still 13-1 and they’ve generally won by safe margins. Kentucky is not as dominant as you might think even though it is ranked 10th in the country. While the Wildcats have won eight of nine, most of the wins have come against the bottom half of the SEC. They have failed to cover five of the seven games they have played against teams that average at least 77 points game. LSU averages more than that. LSU is undervalued tonight at home. Play on LSU AAA |
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02-18-20 | Illinois +6.5 v. Penn State | Top | 62-56 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ILLINOIS Penn State is undoubtedly a hot team right. Having achieved a top 10 ranking (#9) for the first time in forever, the Nittany Lions are on an 8-0 win streak - both straight up and against the spread. Their latest conquest took place Saturday when they defeated Northwestern 77-61. It was their largest margin of victory during the win streak. Of course, Northwestern also just so happens to be the worst team in the Big 10. Illinois, while having lost four in a row, is still considered to be a NCAA Tournament team and it wasn’t that long ago that they were leading the conference! The Illini’s rough patch has included games vs. Maryland and Michigan State as well as road trips to Iowa and Rutgers. Really, they shouldn’t have been favored to win any of those games. They obviously don’t deserve to be favored tonight either, but the spread is too high in our estimation considering where Illinois was just a short time ago. Play on ILLINOIS AAA |
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02-17-20 | North Carolina +4 v. Notre Dame | Top | 76-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NORTH CAROLINA North Carolina isn’t going to get sympathy from anyone in the ACC or nationally. But it sure is sad to see the Tar Heels having fallen this far (last place in the ACC). For the second time this year, they’re on a five-game losing streak. They’re just 2-10 the past 12 games. But this more recent five game losing streak has seen them fall by two points or less three different times. Saturday against Virginia they lost 64-62. But you should take them here against a Notre Dame team that was just humiliated by Duke over the weekend. The Fighting Irish took a 34-point loss in Durham, which ended a six-game ATS win streak. The Irish have had some close losses of their own, namely a one-point loss at Virginia last Tuesday that went into overtime. But that Duke loss is going to be “tough to shake” and we expect there to be somewhat of a “carry over” from Saturday to tonight. Before Saturday, Notre Dame had been held to 60 points or less three different times this season. They’ve yet to cover off one of those performances. Play on NORTH CAROLINA AAA |