Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-02-23 | Bowling Green +10 v. Liberty | Top | 24-34 | Push | 0 | 141 h 59 m | Show |
10* Bowling Green (UNDERDOG SHOCKER) Liberty is a huge favorite here, but note that it was just 6-7 ATS. When favored by ten or more points, the Flames did not cover the spread once out of six times last season. Bowling Green was just 4-8-1 ATS, but with a low turnover in personel, the Falcons are expected to take a small step forward this year. Bowling Green was an underdog of 10 or more points in four different games last year and the Falcons went 2-2 ATS. We're not predicting an outright, but we definitely feel this is a few too many points for Liberty to cover here in Week 1; grab the points, the play is Bowling Green! AAA Sports |
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09-01-23 | Stanford v. Hawaii +7 | Top | 37-24 | Loss | -120 | 130 h 22 m | Show |
10* Hawaii (NON-CONF GOW) Stanford has a ton of potential with new head coach Troy Taylor, whose Sacramento State team averaged around 500 yards per game. However, it's going to take time to build that chemistry, and that's where we ultimately see the door being open for the Warriors to comfortably sneak in through down the stretch. The Warriors lost at Vanderbilt last weekend, but covered the spread. Stanford is a total rebuild and there are so many question marks, that we expect the home side to be able to move the ball and be competitive. We'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, but all signs point to a much more competitive battle than what this spread is suggesting; grab the points, the play is Hawaii! AAA Sports |
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09-01-23 | Louisville -7.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 39-34 | Loss | -108 | 127 h 12 m | Show |
10* Louisville (ACC GOM) It would be difficult for Georgia Tech to be any worse than it was last year, so it will for sure be improved this season. However, that improvement is relative of course. Louisville does have plenty of new faces, including at head coach (Jeff Brohm) and defensive coordinator (Ron English), but the defense finished No. 1 in the nation in sacks last year, and this unit will have its way with the ACC's worst offensive line in tackles allowed for a loss. QB Jack Plummer has plenty of talent around him as well. These are the types of games that Louisville needs to run up the score on early, to allow its backups and wannabe's quality playing time in the fourth quarter; lay the points, the play is Louisville! AAA Sports |
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08-31-23 | Nebraska v. Minnesota -7.5 | Top | 10-13 | Loss | -108 | 106 h 2 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (BIG TEN GOM) Minnesota was 9-4 last season, and it won the Pinstripe Bowl. The Gophers averaged 28.2 points per game, while allowing 13.8. Nebraska went 4-8 and failed to make a bowl appearance. It gave up 27.6 points per game, while averaging only 22.6 per contest. The Gophers are interestingly 5-3 ATS in their last eight as a 7.5-point favorite. Nebraska will be a lot better under Matt Rhule, and tranfer Jeff Simms is a dangerous play-maker. Defense is an issue again this year though. This game will once again be decided in the trenches (Minnesota won this game 20-13 last year, unable to cover the large 14.5-point spread.) Nebraska's lines on both sides of the ball will need some work to get up to speed. Look for Minnesota's tough defense to be the difference-maker; lay the points on the Gophers! AAA Sports |
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08-31-23 | Florida v. Utah UNDER 46.5 | Top | 11-24 | Win | 100 | 106 h 15 m | Show |
10* Florida/Utah UNDER (TOM) The Utes finished 10-4 last year and they lost in the Rose Bowl. Utah averaged 38.6 points per game while conceding 21.4. The Gators were 6-7 in 2022, and they lost the Las Vegas Bowl. They averaged 29.5 points, while allowing 28.8 per contest. Utah has question marks at QB though, as Cam Rising is still nursing a sore knee suffered in the Rose Bowl, while backup Brandon Rose was hurt in the preseason and he's up in the air as well. Florida's offense will be shaky to start this year as well, but it'll make up for it on the defensive side, which will be tough in the pass rush in this one. A great situational play on the "under!" AAA Sports |
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08-26-23 | San Jose State v. USC -30 | Top | 28-56 | Loss | -108 | 558 h 23 m | Show |
10* USC (BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT) If USC is going to take the next step as a program, it has to take advantage of these early season games, and hammer their lesser competition over the first three quarters, to give the backups and younger kids some real game time in the fourth, including Malachi Nelson and Miller Moss, among various other high-profile back-ups. It would be a massive wasted opportunity if the Trojans don't approach this game seriously and absolutely lay the hammer down over the first three quarters. SJSU finished 7-4 overall and 4-7 ATS last year. With plenty of new faces, we expect the Spartans to struggle in this difficult road venue; lay the points, the play is the Trojans! AAA Sports |
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08-26-23 | Ohio +3.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -110 | 558 h 48 m | Show |
10* Ohio (NON-CONF GOM) SDSU finished 7-6 overall last year and 5-3 vs. the Mountain West. In the end the Aztecs fell 25-23 to MTSU in the Hawaii Bowl last year. Ohio finished 2022 with a 10-4 record, and was 7-1 vs. the MAC. The Bobcats then went on to win the Barstool Arizona Bowl by a score of 30-27 in OT over Wyoming. Tim Albin won the MAC Coach of the year and quarterback Kurtis Rourke earned MAC Offensive Play of the year as well. With another tough game at home vs. LIU next week, we're expecting the Bobcats to be on top of their Game in Week 0. With a "cream puff" vs. Idaho State next, we're expecting the home side to get caught "looking ahead." While we feel the outright is possible, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can with Ohio! AAA Sports |
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08-26-23 | Navy v. Notre Dame UNDER 50.5 | Top | 3-42 | Win | 100 | 554 h 59 m | Show |
10* Navy/ND UNDER (NON-CONF TOW) This is the third time these teams have played each other in Ireland. Notre Dame is 2-0. The Irish are heavy favorites here, but we're steering clear of the side and instead focussing on the total. The last time was back in 2012 where the Irish won 50-10. Notre Dame finished 9-4 overall last year and 7-6 ATS. Sam Hartman transferred over from Wake Forest and he had 38 TD's and 12 INT's last year. He now steps behind one of the best offensive lines in the nation. Navy finihed 4-8 overall and 7-5 ATS. The Midshipmen came out on the wrong side of more than a couple close calls last week. Navy's offense is centered around the run and that's what we're expecting to see a lot of today. Also note that the Midshipment finished first in their conference in third down stops last year. They also ranked second in stopping the run in the nation and the defense returns most of the starters. Look for this "across the pond" contest to be decided by field position and special teams and expect it to fall "under" the number once it's all said and done. AAA Sports |
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01-09-23 | TCU v. Georgia UNDER 64 | Top | 7-65 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
10* UNDER (TOW) The Horned Frogs were 5-7 last year, and now here they are in the National Championship Game. While the Frogs got out to a fast start vs. Michigan, I htink the Bulldogs will be ready on the defensive end from the "get go." Why is Georgia such a big favorite here? The Bulldogs have superior talent throughout all three phases. NFL level talent. And they're much bigger in the trenches. The Bulldogs will be out to impose themselves here on the Horned Frogs. I'm not expecting a shootout. The exact opposite. Look for a run-heavy, slower-paced "under" i the National Championship Game this year! AAA Sports |
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01-02-23 | Utah v. Penn State OVER 52 | Top | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 627 h 29 m | Show |
10* OVER Penn State/Utah (BOWL TOY) It's the "Granddaddy of 'Em All," with the Big Ten facing off against the Pac 12. Penn State brings in a great offense led by veteran QB Sean Clifford, who is playing his final game. He's aided by dynamic RB Nicholas Singleton, who is averaging 6.3 yards per carry. The Nittany Lions are going to have to be sharp offensively facing this "on fire" Utah offense, that's posted 110 points over its last two games, including in securing the Pac 12 title over USC. QB Cameron Rising had 300 yards passing and three TD's in that one. This year's Rose Bowl features two awesome QB's and I look for them to be the main story line in tomorrow's summaries of this contest; this number is low, the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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01-02-23 | Tulane +2.5 v. USC | Top | 46-45 | Win | 100 | 646 h 18 m | Show |
10* Tulane (BOWL GOY) USC comes in off a tragic 47-24 loss to Utah in the PAC 12 Championship Game and I think it'll just go through the motions here after that disapointment. A trip to the College Football Playoff was on the line, but the Utes managed an impressive second victory of the season over the over-rated Trojans. Listen, I get it, USC can score. The Trojans average 41.1 PPG, which ranks third in the country. The issue is clearly on the defensive end. Overall I think the PAC 12 is a week Conference. Tulane comes in off an impressive 45-28 destruction of UCF to earn the AAC title and finish 11-2. The Green Wave are more motivated and hungry here. They average 35.2 PPG, but they have a superior defense. USC QB Caleb Williams was injured in the loss to Utah, and if he does play in this one, clearly he won't be at 100%; while I do think the outright win is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with the Green Wave! AAA Sports |
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12-31-22 | TCU v. Michigan -7 | Top | 51-45 | Loss | -110 | 602 h 60 m | Show |
10* Michigan (DEC BOWL 'GOM') TCU messed up in its 31-28 loss at home to TCU. Or did it? It's still in the College Football Playoff, but I think the loss is a precursor to more of a decline here at the end of the month. The Horned Frogs average 40.3 PPG, but they were handled well by the Wildcats' defense, which doesn't bode well facing this aggressive Wolverines unit. Michigan comes in fired up after its 43-22 win over Purdue in the Big Ten Championship game, going on to easily cover the 16 point spread. Michigan averages 40.1 PPG, but as I mentioned above, it's defense is superior in my opinion, and much more battle tested when you look at the level of competition. The win at Ohio State was epic. The Wolverines are well-coached and I expect them to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable cover and win; lay the points, the play is the Wolverines! AAA Sports |
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12-31-22 | Iowa -2.5 v. Kentucky | 21-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
8* Iowa (WINNER) Why will Iowa win and cover in this game? Its defense was great all year, especially against bad or mediocre QB's. The Hawkeyes held llsix teams to ten points or less this season, which includes a 24-3 win over a good Purdue offense. Additionally, Kentucky's best and most skilled player, Levis, has already opted out and the Wildcats will likely have to turn to Destin Wade, who hasn't even taken a snap on the College level! The difference in this one is Iowa's great defense; lay the short points with confidence! AAA Sports |
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12-30-22 | South Carolina +3.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 38-45 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
10* South Carolina (ASSASSIN) If you want a full review of how each team did throughout the year, there's literally tens of millions of "review" articles out there. ESPN etc. If you simply want to know why I think South Carolina will win this game, then you've come to the right place. I like being succinct with my analysis, as I truly believe the clients who purchase this information, would rather just "get to the point," than read an entire "novel" of why I believe one side or another should win. Both teams finished up strong, but without Notre Dame's best player in this one, Mayer, and its starting QB Pyne, the value here swings to the Gamecocks. South Carolina's offense started to hit its stride at the end of the season, scoring more than 30 points in its final two games. While the outright is possible, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can with the Gamecocks! AAA Sports |
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12-29-22 | Washington v. Texas -3 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
10* Texas (ATS BLOOD-BATH) The Longhorns finished 8-4 after beating Kansas and Baylor to end the regular season. Their two best RB's will be out for this one, and that's why this spread is so low. Despite that though, I like the rest of this team to step up and deliver the goods. Quinn Ewers has a big opportunity now to showcase his talents for Texas under center, and I think he'll be a big difference-maker in this Bowl game. The Longhorns defense was great as well, limiting teams to just 21.2 PPG. Washington is 10-2. It closed out the season with a 51-33 win over WSU in the Apple Cup. QB Michael Penix Jr. was decent, but he struggles against aggressive pass-rushing defenses like the Longhorns. The Huskies defense concedes 26.3 PPG as well. Look for TEXAS to do just enough to secure the win and cover! AAA Sports |
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12-29-22 | Minnesota -10.5 v. Syracuse | 28-20 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
8* Minnesota (BLOWOUT) The Orange are 7-5, but they were terrible down the stretch, losing five of their last six. The main culprit was the offense which failed to score even ten points in setbacks to Florida State and Pitt. The Gophers finished 8-4 and likely benefited in playing in a weak Big Ten West. Despite each team finishing with decent records, neither had a fantastic year. The Orange were downright terrible down the stretch though and I look for the Gophers more balanced attack to be too much for them to handle down the stretch; lay the points, the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports |
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12-28-22 | Kansas v. Arkansas UNDER 69.5 | Top | 53-55 | Loss | -112 | 509 h 51 m | Show |
10* UNDER Kansas/Arkansas (BOWL TOM) These teams haven't played each other in over 100 years. That streak ends on December 28th at Simmons Liberty Stadium in Memphis. Kansas finished 6-6 and it's finally in a bowl game for the first time since 2006. This is a big deal for the Jayhawks and their fan base. Arkansas also finished 6-6, but that was a disappointment for the Razorbacks, who went 9-4 last year, including psoting a win in the Outback Bowl. Kansas actually started the season 5-0, but then its starting QB got hurt, Conference play started and the Jayhawks went on to lose six of their last seven. But first year head coach Lance Leipold's first season is still a success. QB Jalon Daniels did return from injury and finished with 1,470 passing yards, 13 TD's and two INT's. Kansas struggled defensively, but I think it can make some plays against Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson. The bottom line is, neither team will be suiting up their entire squad, and I believe the long lay off will have a detrimental effect on these offenses; the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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12-27-22 | Utah State v. Memphis UNDER 59 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
10* UNDER (TOP BOWL TOTAL) The total in this game has come down from its opening mark, and I don't think it's low enough. Utah State will be focused on running the ball today, and that means more time will be chewed off the clock with each possessions. Memphis actually posted combined scores of under 60 over two of its final three games. In fact, these teams combined offensive scores this season add up to under 60 points. I don't think either will reach its average here. Rest leads to "rust" for sure. Granted, Memphis does have a decent passing attack. But the Aggies have hit the "under" in eight of their last nine bowl games. Expect a hard-fought, but ulimtately lower-scoring affair here; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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12-26-22 | New Mexico State +3.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 31 h 3 m | Show |
10* New Mexico State (BOWL WINNER) While I do think the outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. New Mexico State finished 6-6, crushing Valparaiso 65-3 in its season finale. Bowling Green also finished 6-6. They lost 38-14 to Ohio in their final regular season contest. The Aggies are averaging 25.6 PPG. QB Diego Pavia had 17 total TD's this year. New Mexico State has a decent defense as well that concedes 24.3 PPG. Bowling Green averages 23.8 PPG, while allowing 33.3. The line has moved a lot in this one because of transfers etc, but in a contest that I still see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points; the play is New Mexico State! AAA Sports |
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12-23-22 | Wake Forest v. Missouri UNDER 59 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
10* UNDER (TOP BOWL TOTAL) Wake Forest had a great offense and a poor defense. The offense averaged 36.2 PPG, while the defense allowed 31. The Demon Deacons though see plenty of talent leaving the offense via the transfer portal, including RB Christian Turner. Look for the time off and the new faces to throw a big "monkey wrench" into the chemistry of this Deacons' offense. The Tigers won four of their last six games to qualify. The Tigers only average 24.7 PPG, while allowing 25.7; I'm expecting a very defensive affair here, so the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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12-22-22 | Air Force +3.5 v. Baylor | Top | 30-15 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
10* Air Force (BLOCKBUSTER) The Baylor Bears finished 6-6, while the Air Force Falcons finished 9-3. Air Force runs the triple-option on offense, with 90% of its plays coming via the run. The Falcons won their last four games and I expect them to carry that momentum over here. Baylor started the season 6-3, but then it dropped its final three games of the season. I have a hard time seeing the Bears slowing down Brad Roberts, who was the No. 3 ranked rusher in the FBS this year with 1,612 yards for the Falcons. Baylor QB Blake Sharpen and its RB Richard Reese faded down the stretch with poor showings against K-State, TCU and Texas. The Falcons have lost three of their games by a total of 15 points. Too many changes for the Bears line-up as well right now. Look for Air Force to control the tempo of this one; the play is the Falcons! AAA Sports |
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12-20-22 | Toledo -3.5 v. Liberty | Top | 21-19 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
10* Toledo (BLOCKBUSTER) The Flames are 8-4, while the Rockets are 8-5. Liberty lost its last regular season game to New Mexico State by a score of 49-14. Former head coach Hugh Freeze is gone to take over at Auburn, and a few players left via the transfer portal. The Flames have a tough defense that holds its opposition to just 4.9 yards per play, but a few of their top defenders are gone. Toledo has had less issues to deal with off the field, but on the field there's still a concern for starting QB Dequan Finn. The Rockets last played in the MAC Championship and won 17-7 over Ohio. They racked up 11 penalties for 79 yards in the victory. Finn will not be at 100% health for this contest, but I still think he's the safe bet here against this Liberty team that's missing its head coach, and several key players on both sides of the ball; lay the points, the play is Toledo! AAA Sports |
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12-17-22 | Rice +6.5 v. Southern Miss | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
10* Rice (BLOCKBUSTER) Rice lost its last three games of the year, but I expect it to dig deep and to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. AJ Padjett has only started one game under center for the Owls this year, but he'll be complimented by leading runner Cameron Montgomery, and leading receiver Bradley Rozier. SMU started the season 5-3, but it closed out by going just 1-3. Southern Miss started three different QB's, and that was difficult. Trey Lowe had six TD's and seven INT's. Frank Gore Jr. had 1,053 rushing yards. Padgett is the correct call here, who will have an extra two weeks or reps before this bowl game; no outright, but a nailbiter, so grab the points! AAA Sports |
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12-17-22 | Florida v. Oregon State UNDER 53 | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
8* UNDER Florida/Oregon State (O/U BLOOD-BATH) This one sets up well for an "under." The Gators are without their starting QB, so their only hope here is to run the ball. The only problem there is, Oregon State is only allowing 114 rushing yards per game. This Oregon State defense allows just over 21 PPG, and I think they'll be on point here against this vanilla Florida offense. With each team committed to the run on offense throughout, expect this total to stay well under the posted number! AAA Sports |
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12-16-22 | Troy v. UTSA OVER 56.5 | Top | 18-12 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
10* OVER UTSA/TROY (TOTAL ROUT) Both teams finished 11-2. UTSA went 8-0 in conference play and then won the Conference USA Championship over UNT by a score of 48-27. I feel like today's game will have a similar final combined score. QB Frank Harris had 341 yards and four TD's in the vicotry. The Roadrunners put the pedal to the metal all game, entering averaging 37.6 PPG. Troy is only allowing 17.6 PPG, but the Trojans are off a big Sun Belt Championship by smoking Coastal Carolina by a score of 45-26. QB Gunnar Watson had 318 yards passing and three TD's. The stage is set for a bit of a shootout here; this number is low the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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12-10-22 | Navy v. Army OVER 32 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
10* OVER Navy/Army (TOTAL BLOWOUT) These teams have historically played to several lower-scoring games over the last decade. Both run the triple-option, and neither will throw the ball much if at all. It's going to be blustery conditions as well in Philadelphia, but with all of that said, I still think this number is low. Navy averaes 22.4 PPG, while Army averages 29.4. Tyhier Taylor has 12 rushing TD, and the Black Knights averaged over 300 rushing yards per game. Navy uses a combination of Maasai Maynor and Xavier Arline at QB, and it's been effective as well. I believe each will come close to their seasonal offensive average here, so the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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12-03-22 | LSU v. Georgia -17 | Top | 30-50 | Win | 100 | 72 h 39 m | Show |
10* Georgia (SEC GOM) I like No. 1 Georgia to lay the hammer down on No. 11 LSU today and to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish with no mercy. Georgia is of course the defending champ and it's trying to win back-to-back SEC Championships for the first time since all the way back in 1980. Experience does count in these games, and this is the Bulldogs fifth trip to this game in the last six years. First-year head coach Brian Kelly led LSU to an unexpected SEC West division championship and I believe he and his team are in over their heads here this weekend. Georgia may only be 6-6 ATS this year, but it's 3-0 ATS when favored by 20 or less points this season. Georgia has a great run game and LSU struggles against good run teams; lay the points, the play is the Bulldogs! AAA Sports |
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12-02-22 | North Texas +9 v. UTSA | Top | 27-48 | Loss | -113 | 52 h 3 m | Show |
10* UNT (CONF-USA GOM) UNT is 7-5. It averages 34.5 PPG, which ranks 25th in the country. It beat Rice 21-17 in its finale. It faced UTSA in Week 8 and lost 31-27 on the road as a ten-point underdog. Suffice it to say, I'm expecting another really tight and close battle here today as well. UTSA is 10-2. It averages 37.9 PPG. It held on for the 34-31 win over UTEP at home as a 16.5-point favorite in its final game. UNT's aggressive defense and strong run will once again keep it competitive late. I'm stopping short in calling for the outright upset, but all signs point to this one being MUCH closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe; the play is UNT! AAA Sports |
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11-26-22 | Oklahoma v. Texas Tech OVER 63.5 | Top | 48-51 | Win | 100 | 58 h 2 m | Show |
10* OVER Oklahoma/Texas Tech (BIG 12 TOY) For a number of different reasons, I expect each team to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish here, and because of that, I look for this total to fly "over" the posted number sooner, rather than later. Oklahoma is off a big win over Oklahoma State by a score of 28-13, making the Sooners eligible. I don't expect them to take the foot off the gas here though with the chance for a better bowl on th eline. The Sooners average 31.5 PPG, and last year they won this game by a score of 55-21. The Red Raiders moved to 6-5 as well in a tough 14-10 win at Iowa State as a 3.5-point underdog. It was a gritty win and I look for Texas Tech, which averages 32 PPG, to lay it all on the line here in the final game of the year at home; it's a great situational play, as I'm expecting each team to push the pace until the final whistle; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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11-26-22 | Tennessee v. Vanderbilt +14 | Top | 56-0 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
10* Vanderbilt (SEC GOW) Tennessee can ill afford to take the foot off the gas at 9-2 on the final game of the year, but I do expect the Vols to do just that in the second half. Will 5-6 Vanderbilt pull off the epic upset and win this game outright? Highly unlikely, but I do absolutely believe that the stage is set for a much tighter battle than what this spread is suggesting. The Vols come in off a crippling 63-38 loss at South Carolina. The Commodores actually pulled off a similar upset last week, beating Florida 31-24 at home as a 13.5-point underdog. Now here on Senior Night and the final game of the season, I'm expecting Vanderbilt to put up another fight until the end here as well; grab the points, the play is the Commodores! AAA Sports |
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11-25-22 | Arkansas v. Missouri +4 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
10* MISSOURI (SEC GOM) At this time of year, we have to be cerebral with our wagers. This is a great "situational" wager, and that, along with a couple of strong trends that support my position, is what I'm basing this selection on. Arkansas just became bowl eligible in last week's 42-27 win over Ole Miss as a one-point underdog. After that emotional win on "Seniors Night," I'm expecting a predictable letdown here. The Razorbacks average 31 PPG, while the 5-6 Missouri Tigers average 25.2 Missouri kept its bowl hopes alive in last week's 45-14 destruction of New Mexico State. The Tigers have an opportunity to become bowl eligibleon Senior Night themselves, while at the same time avenging a 34-17 loss to Arkansas last season; the outright is clearly possible, but grab as many points as you can! AAA Sports |
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11-24-22 | Mississippi State +2.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
10* Mississippi State (ASSASSIN) The big news surrounding this game is that Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin has been rumoured about taking the job at Auburn as early as this Friday. He's denied those rumors, but this is just a big circus now for Mississippi, a distraction that I think Mississippi State can take advantage of. Ole Miss is 8-3, but it's not playing its best football of the season right now either having lost three of its last four. That includes a 42-27 loss at Arkansas as a 1-point favorite last week. I think Mike Leach and the Bulldogs can take advantage. Mississippi State is 7-4. It's off a 56-7 win over East Tennessee State as a 39-point favorite. It averages 33.5 points per game. Will Rogers is having another solid year, and that doesn't bode well for a Rebels secondary that allows a lot underneath stuff and which is actually ranked 111th in the country in opponent completion percentage and 95th in opponent QB passer rating. The Bulldogs on the other hand have steadily improved defensively throughout the season, as they now rank 14th in the country in takeaways. I think the outright win is possible, but in the end let's grab the points; the play is MISSISSIPPI STATE! AAA Sports |
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11-22-22 | Bowling Green +6.5 v. Ohio | Top | 14-38 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
10* Bowling Green (MAC GOW) Ohio has its sights set on the Conference title game, and I think could stumble here with the finish line in sight. Bowling Green became eligible last week at 6-5 after beating Toledo 42-35 as a 15-point underdog. The Green Falcons did it on the road as well. Ohio is off the 32-18 win at Ball State. Ohio is the better team, but Bowling Green comes in with a lot of momentum. I think this is a factor that the oddsmakers often have a hard time properly quantifying into a line, and that's the case here in this one tonight. While the outright is possible, I'm going to suggest to grab as many points as you can; the play is Bowling Green! AAA Sports |
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11-19-22 | San Jose State v. Utah State +2.5 | Top | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 105 h 2 m | Show |
10* Utah State (MW GOY) San Jose State is 6-3. It's eligible. It's coming off a 43-27 lss at SDSU. The Spartans average 27.1 PPG. They have a much "easier" game at home to end the season against Hawaii next weekend. Utah State is 5-5. It averages 22.1 PPG. It's coming off a much-needed 41-34 win at Hawaii last weekend. With a game at conference leading Boise State to end the season, this becomes a "must win" for Utah State if it hopes to go "Bowling." It's a great situational play here. Utah State will carry over its offensive momentum from last week and while I clearly believe the outright win is possible, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is Utah State! AAA Sports |
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11-19-22 | UAB +15.5 v. LSU | 10-41 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 60 m | Show | |
8* UAB (SITUATIONAL ROUT) Outright win? I'm not calling for that. But everything point to a solid cover for the non-conference visiting side in my opinion. The Blazers are now 5-5 and in need of one more victory to become bowl eligible after last week's 41-21 rout of UNT as a 6.5-point favorite. The Blazers average 32 PPG, and they'll have one last shot to reach the six-win plateau next week at 3-7 Louisiana Tech. LSU is 8-2, and 5-1 at home. It'll be cautious to overlook its potentially dangerous opponent. The Tigers average 32.6 PPG, but with back-to-back tough road games at Texas A&M and Georgia in the SEC Championship, there's no doubt that this also sets up as a "letdown/lookahead" position for the home side. It's a trap! Grab the points, the play is UAB! AAA Sports |
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11-19-22 | Georgia Tech +21 v. North Carolina | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
8* Georgia Tech (SPECIAL) At this time of the year, it's all about betting "situations." This is a great situational play in my opinion. The Yellow Jackets are 4-6 with two games remaining. After playing at UNC, they finish the year at Georgia. The Yellow Jackets' bowl hopes end tonight, but I believe they go down fighthing. Ultimately though I expect UNC to take the foot off the gas in the second half. The Tar Heels are ranked 13th at 9-1 and they're off a tighter than expected 36-34 road win at Wake Forest as a 4.5-point underdog. UNC though has two more games left to go, including at home against NC State next week, followed by the AAC Championship game against Clemson. UNC takes the foot off the gas in the second half here, and the Yellow Jackets comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch; grab the points, the play is GT! AAA Sports |
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11-18-22 | South Florida v. Tulsa OVER 57.5 | Top | 42-48 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
10* OVER USF/Tulsa. What does either team have to lose here, except another game?! With nothing on the line, even the chance to play spoiler, I look for a wide-open offensive affair, rather than an intense defensive one. Teh Bulls have lost eight in a row. Last time out they fell 41-23 to SMU. I'm envisioning a similar final combined score here as well. The Golden Hurricane enter on a three-game losing streak, most recently falling 26-10 at Memphis. Tulsa is a huge favorite here in its final home game of the season. It'll be an underdog next week in Houston. Both teams can score. USF averages 25.5 PPG, while Tulsa averages 28.2. I expect each to exceed their season offensive averages tonight; this total is low, the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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11-17-22 | SMU v. Tulane -3.5 | Top | 24-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
10* Tulane (ASSASSIN) SMU is 6-4 and Tulane is now 8-2 after falling 38-31 to UCF last week. Tulane does still have a shot at a New Year's Six bowl, so there's still lots on the line for Tulane this weekend as well. SMU has reeled off three straight wins. Its offense has looked great in the victories, scoring 163 points, which included a 77-63 win over Houston two weeks ago. And then last week's 41-23 victory at home over USF as well. But this would appear to be a classic trap or letdown spot after becoming bowl eligible last weekend. The SMU offense has been great, but the defense has been terrible. Tulane is tied with Cincinnati for second in the AAC ahead of their meeting next weekend. The Wave simply can't afford to look past their opponent today. The big question here is if this normally stout Tulane defense can bounce back after last weekend's atypical performance. This hasn't been a great spot for SMU bettors, as the Mustangs are just 1-3 against the spread as an underdog this season (in fact SMU has lost all four games outright as an underdog as well this year.) UCF's defense is a lot better than SMU's. The Green Wave have a balanced offense, which includes a top 40 red zone touchdown percentage. This is a much better matchup for Tulane's defense this week. It's also a better matchup for its offense. SMU's defense is just downright terrible, it simply can't stop anyone. And yes, SMU's offense has looked great over the last three games, but the three defenses it's faced in those victories are all outside the top 100 on the defensive side of the ball; I expect the Green Wave to get back on track in this favorable matchup, so lay the points! AAA Sports |
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11-16-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Kent State OVER 59 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
10* OVER (TOTAL ANNIHILATION) For a number of different reasons I expect this total to fly "over" the number. EMU is now 6-4 and bowl eligible after its 34-28 road win at Akron last week. The Eagles though still have an outside shot at the league championship, so they won't be taking the foot off the gas here. Overall EMU averages 27.7 PPG. Kent State averages 28.7. The Flashes needed a big performance last week and they delivered in their 40-6 road win at Bowling Green. Now 4-6, Kent will have tonight, as well as next week vs. Buffalo to become eligible. One game at a time though. I don't see a lot of defense being played here. Each team is going to be aggressive and I expect this faster-paced affair to fly "over" the number before the final whistle sounds! AAA Sports |
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11-15-22 | Ohio v. Ball State +4 | Top | 32-18 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
10* Ball State (MAC GOW) This is a big game for both teams. Ohio is 8-3, while Ball State needs one more win to become bowl eligible at 5-5. The Bobcats are 2-3 on the road and the Cardinals are 3-2 at home. Ball State fell 28-21 at Toledo last weekend, going on to cover with the large 13.5-point spread. Ohio earned the 27-21 win at Miami Ohio as a 2-point favorite. The Bobcats are tied with Toledo now for the conference lead, so they have their "eyes on the prize" as far as the conference championship is concerned. That said, this is Ball State's final home game of the year, before a tough final game at Miami Ohio next week to finish things off. This one sets up great for Ball State from a situtional stand-point. I do think the outright win is possible, but let's grab the points; the play is indeed on Ball State! AAA Sports |
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11-12-22 | Arizona State +10 v. Washington State | 18-28 | Push | 0 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
8* Arizona State (ANNIHILATION) Here's a great situational play, with Arizona State at 3-6 and needing to run the table to try and become eligible. WSU on the other hand is 5-4 and needing one more win to become eligible. And with two much tougher games against Washington and Arizona upcoming, this is a crtical game for both sides. But I think the pressure is more on the Cougars here and I believe they're going to struggle to cover this larger spread. ASU is off a 50-36 home loss to UCLA. The Sun Devils can score, averaging 28.1 PPG. WSU is off the big 52-14 win at Stanford, but it still is averaging just 26.8 PPG. WSU's defense is superior, but ASU's unit catches a break this weekend. I expect a much tighter game than what this spread is suggesting; grab the points, the play is ASU! AAA Sports |
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11-12-22 | Alabama v. Ole Miss UNDER 65 | Top | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 73 h 49 m | Show |
10* UNDER Alabama/Ole Miss (SEC TOY) Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect a much more defensive affair here this weekend finally. Alabama is now 7-3, while Ole Miss is 8-1. Bama lost a heart-breaking OT game in LSU last weekend by a score of 32-31 as a 13.5-point favorite. Ole Miss is off a tight 31-28 win at Texas A&M. Georgia's now in control of the SEC at 9-0. Ole Miss is actually coming off its bye week, so it's fully prepared here. Also remember, the last time the Tide lost this year, the following week they came out and destroyed Mississippi State by a score of 30-6. I think Alabama will double down here defensively as it looks to control all facets in this bounce back opportunity. LSU will also be looking to hold onto the ball as much as possible while on offense. When you add it all up, I definitely believe this Over/Under line is a few points higher than it normally would/should be; the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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11-12-22 | North Texas v. UAB -5.5 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
10* UAB (ASSASSIN) UNT is now bowl eligible after crushing FIU by a score of 52-14 at home last weekend. While 4-1 at home though, the Mean Green are just 2-3 on the road. UAB is 4-5 and it needs two more wins to become eligible, with three games remaining. Last weekend it lost 44-38 at home to UTSA in OT. The Blazers though are 4-1 at home and I'm expecting them to bounce back here. Note that UNT is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after a SU/ATS home win of 30 or more points. Look for UNT to suffer a classic mental "letdown" here after last week's bowl-eligibility clinching victory, and expect UAB to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish! AAA Sports |
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11-12-22 | Rice +13.5 v. Western Kentucky | 10-45 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
8* Rice (SPECIAL) Here's a great situational play. Rice is a big underdog here, but at 5-4 it needs one more victory to become eligible. The Owls are coing off a solid 37-30 win and cover at home over UTEP. The Owls average 30 PPG, which is ranked 59th. WKU is now eligible at 6-4 after its big 59-7 win over Charlotte last weekend. Next week is the Hilltoppers' bye week, followed by a game at FAU to end the regular season. I say this sets up as a look-ahead/letdown spot for the home side, and when you add those two factors together, you get "trap game!" WKU averages 37.2 PPG, but I expect a small mental letdown here after last week's victory. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points, the play is Rice! AAA Sports |
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11-12-22 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia OVER 41 | 37-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
8* OVER Pitt/UVA (BLOWOUT) Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. Pittsburgh is 5-4, while UVA is 3-6. The Panthers are favored here and are on the cusp of eligibility. They're off a 19-9 home win over Syracuse, but they've seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after a SU/ATS victory in which they held their opponent to ten or less points in. UVA is 3-6 after last week's tight 31-28 setback to UNC. The Cavs are now not going to be able to make a bowl, but they can play spoiler. Look for the home side to open up the playbook here and for the Panthers to match pace; this number is low, the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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11-11-22 | East Carolina v. Cincinnati OVER 51.5 | Top | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
10* OVER ECU/Cincinnati. Both teams are eligible, but each is looking for more victories. ECU is off a 27-24 win over BYU as a three-point underdog. The Pirates average 32.6 PPG. They're coming off B2B wins, but each game has gone "under" the number. I expect those lower-scoring trends to end here this evening though against a Cincinnati team that's coming off a tougher than expected 20-10 home win over Navy last week. The Bearcats though average 33.2 PPG. Cincinnati has now seen the total go UNDER in five straight, which is significant to note here, as the Bearcats have in fact seen the total go OVER in five of their last six after playing to five or more straight UINDERS in a row. I think this number is now a bit too low, so the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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11-10-22 | Tulsa +6.5 v. Memphis | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
10* Tulsa (GOW) The Tigers are 4-5, and the Golden Hurricanes are 3-6. Tulsa will have to run the table to become eligible, while Memphis is now running out of time. In a game that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points. Tulsa has lost two in a row, most recently fall 27-13 to Tulane. Braylon Braxton had 146 passing yards and a TD. Last year Tulsa was in the same position, needing three wins to become eligible, and it did just that. Memphis comes in with zero momentum after four straight losses. Most recently it was a heart-breaking 35-28 loss to UCF. Seth Henigan had 284 passing yards and a TD. But with a defense that is allowing 412 yards per game, I just don't trust the home side to cover this spread; grab thep points, the play is Tulsa! AAA Sports |
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11-09-22 | Kent State -2.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 40-6 | Win | 100 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
10* KENT STATE (MAC GOY) Kent State is 3-6. It's 0-5 on the road. It's favored here, but will need to "run the table" to become eligible. One game at a time. Bowling Green is off a tight 13-9 win over Western Michigan last week, unable to cover the 5-point spread. The Falcons are now 5-4 with three games remaining. Bowling Green averages 24.9 PPG, while Kent State averages 27.4. The Golden Flashes are off a 27-20 home loss to Ball State. Marquez Coper has 1,013 rushing yards and and nine rushing TD's. Bowling Green was "lucky" to win last time out after turning the ball over three times. Kent State's offense will prove to be the difference-maker here; lay the points, the play is the Golden Flashes! AAA Sports |
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11-08-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron OVER 55.5 | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
10* OVER EMU/Akron (MAC TOW) For a number of different reasons, I believe this O/U line is a bit too low. Eastern Michigan is 5-4. It's 3-1 on the road. It needs one more win to become bowl eligible. It's coming off a 27-24 loss at home to Toledo, but it averages 27 PPG. Akron is just 1-8. It's off a 27-9 loss to Miami Ohio. It averages just 18.6 PPG. So why the super high total here? Akron is brutal defensively, and the Eagles also give up yards. The Zips will try to play the role of spoiler here for at least one more week. This is in fact Akron's final home game, so expect the team to open up the playbook offensively as it tries to pull off the unlikely upset. And after last week's home loss, look for EMU to keep the foot on the gas from start to finigh. The numbers/trends and the overall situation ALL point to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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11-05-22 | South Carolina v. Vanderbilt OVER 48 | 38-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 38 m | Show | |
8* OVER South Carolina/Vandy (SPECIAL) These teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games, but I expect those trends to end this evening. South Carolina is 5-3 and on the cusp of eligibility. Vanderbilt is 3-5 and in desperate need of victories with four games left in its season. This is the most winnable game for the Commodores, with games upcoming at Kentucky, vs Florida and vs Tennessee. Vanderbilt averages 26.6 PPG, while South Carolina averages 30.2, despite last week's 23-10 home loss to Missouri as a 3.5-point favorite. Off that upset, look for the Gamecocks to push the pace from the outset here. The overall situation points to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later; the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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11-05-22 | South Alabama v. Georgia Southern OVER 60.5 | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 31 h 15 m | Show |
10* OVER USA/Georgia Southern (CONF. USA TOY) both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm finally expecting more of an offensive affair in this one finally. USA is now 6-2 after its 31-3 win over Arkansas State last weekend. The Jaguars though average 31.6 PPG, which ranks 54th in the league. USA has a legitimate shot at the Sun Belt title, tied with Troy at 6-2 and CCU just ahead at 7-1. The Jaguars won't be taking the foot off the gas here against 5-3 Georgia Southern, which is off a 28-23 win at Old Dominion. Now just one win away from eligibility, this is a fantastic situational play here this weekend. Georgia Southern averages 36.9 PPG, which ranks 21st in the league and I'm expecting the home side to push the pace from start to finish. Look for this contest to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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11-05-22 | Texas Tech +8.5 v. TCU | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 46 m | Show | |
9* Texas Tech (ASSASSIN) The 4-4 Texas Tech Red Raiders will be looking to pull off the upset here against 8-0 TCU. Do I actually think that'll happen? Well, I do think there's a distinct possibility that the Red Raiders could do just that. Off a 45-17 loss to Baylor, I like Texas Tech to bounce back here. So far the Red Raiders are allowing 29.3 PPG. The fortunate part for Texas Tech is that it's averaging 33.9 PPG, led by QB Donovan Smith, who has 1,505 passing yards and 12 TD's. TCU is averaging 44.3 PPG, led by QB Max Duggan with a 2,212 passing yards, 22 TD's and two INT's. The Horned Frogs are poor defensively though, allowing 27.3 PPG. The pressure here is on the Frogs and now they have to contend with a hungry SEC team that's bigger in the trenches. While I do think an outright is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is Texas Tech! AAA Sports |
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11-04-22 | Oregon State v. Washington -4.5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
10* WASHINGTON (PAC 12 GOM) Both teams are 6-2. Oregon State is 2-1 on the road, while Washington is 5-0 at home. I don't think you can underestimate how important home-field advantage is going to be in this contest though. This is an important game, as each team is 3-2 in conference play, so the loser almost assuredly will be out of the running for a PAC 12 title spot. The Beavers come in with momentum after three straight victories, but note that Oregon State is just 2-4 ATS in its last six after three or more straight victories ina row. Oregon State is led by Damien Martinez and a ground attack that averages 195 YPG. The defense is decent as well, conceding 22.8 PPG. Washington is off its bye as well. It beat Cal 28-21 last time out. Michael Penix Jr. had 374 yards passing and two TD's. Oregon State stumbled against USC and Utah and I expect the same thing to happen here on the road; lay the points, the play is the Huskies! AAA Sports |
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11-03-22 | Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina OVER 63.5 | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
10* OVER App State/Coastal Carolina (TOW) App State is 5-3 and on the cusp of eligibility. It's favored by three here and I do expect the Mountaineers to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish as they try to run down eligibility with a victory. Coastal Carolina won't be rolling over. It's 7-1 and it has bigger plans for the rest of its season. A victory here over App State would just add to their resume. App State has the 20th ranked run game in the nation, averaging 208.3 yards per game. It's won three of its last four, outscoring its competition 133-20. QB CHase Brice has 22 TD's and just four INT's. CC is coming off a 24-13 road win over Marshall, but previous to that allowed 49 points in a loss to ODU. CC has a balanced offense though that can keep pace with the visiting side, ranked 46th in the nation in passing and 47th in rushing. QB Grayson McCall has 19 TD's and just one INT. These teams played to a lower-scoring duel last year, but all signs point to these competent QB's playing the starring role this season; this number is low, the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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10-29-22 | Michigan State +23 v. Michigan | Top | 7-29 | Win | 100 | 125 h 21 m | Show |
10* MICHIGAN STATE (BIG 10 GOY) The Spartans'll be out to pull off an outright upset here after dropping four of their last five. MSU is 3-4 overall and just 1-3 in league play. Will 7-0 Michigan then come in complacent and "look past" its lowly opponent? Hammering the Spartans never gets old, but I do think this sets up as a natural "letdown" spot. Next week the Wolverines take on Rutgers. But the Spartans are running out of time and chances here. Michigan's chemistry takes a hit here in my opinion as it comes out of its bye week. Last year MSU pulled off an upset over Michigan in a similar sort of situation. Amd I calling for an outright upset again this season? Of course not. That said, this great situational play has all the makings of an against-the-spread cover of the "rocking chair" variety; grab the points, the play is Michigan State! AAA Sports |
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10-29-22 | Kentucky +12 v. Tennessee | Top | 6-44 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
10* Kentucky (BLOCKBUSTER) Kentucky is 5-2 and on the cusp of eligibility after its 27-17 win over Mississippi State two weeks ago as a 3.5 point underdog. Tennessee is already 7-0 and it has its sights set on bigger things. Tennessee annihilated Tennessee Martin 65 to 24 last weekend as a 38.5-point favorite. Will Levis has been pretty good for the Wildcats though, he actually had his best game of the season in the win over Mississippi State (finishing with a 91.1 QBR.) Running back Chris Rodriguez Junior had his best game also finishing with 197 yards on 31 carries against Mississippi State. Overall the Wildcats average 26.4 points per game, but they've been even better on the defensive side ranked in the top 15 nationally in points allowed. With Georgia on deck next week, obiously Hendon Hooker and the Volunteers have to be careful of not looking past the Wildcats. Tennessee's defensive stats are a bit of a mixed bag, but the Vols don't usually have to be too sharp defensively as they're averaging 50.1 points per game, which is No. 1 in the nation. Kentucky faced a high-powered offense like this already in Ole Miss, and while the Wildcats didn't win that one, they kept the Rebels out of the end zone over the final three quarters. Levis will have some opportunities here against a sub-par Volunteer secondary; I'm not calling for an outright guys, but I think that Kentucky can keep it close! AAA Sports |
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10-29-22 | Arkansas v. Auburn UNDER 60.5 | 41-27 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
9* under Arkansas/Auburn (SUPER TOTAL) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting more of a defensive affair here finally on Saturday. Arkansas is now 4-3 after its 52-35 win over BYU two weeks ago. Note though that the Razorbacks have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last off a SU/ATS road victory as an underdog in which they scored 50 or more points in. I think the week off will be detrimental fo Arkansas' offense as well this week. Auburn is only averaging 22.3 PPG. The last thing the 3-4 Tigers can do is to turn this into a "track meet." They'll be looking to bounce back from a 48-34 loss at Ole Miss two weeks ago. I expect the home side to run the ball throughout while on offense and for this total to sneak "under" the number once it's all said and done! AAA Sports |
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10-28-22 | East Carolina v. BYU -3 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* BYU (ASSASSIN) We're at Lavell Edwards Stadium for this one. Both teams are on the cusp of eligibility. The East Carolina Pirates are 5-3, and BYU is 4-4. But while East Carolina has won five of its last seven, the Cougars enter on a three-game losing streak. This is a pivotal game for BYU this weekend. Here is a great opponent to go against, because despite the superior record, the Pirates are still just 3-3 in their last six on the road. ECU has a great quarterback in Holton Ahlers, who has 2,435 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and just five interceptions. The Pirates have been pretty good in the run game as well, averaging 165.7 yards per game. Defensively they are giving up 390.7 yards and 24.6 points per game. But as I pointed out, the Pirates definitely play better at home than on the road. And that's the case for BYU as well. The Cougars will hope a little home cooking can turn things around for them. BYU has won five of its last six at home and I'd argue that Jaren Hall has been even better than Ahlers (he has 2,101 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and three interceptions). The ground game has been pretty good as well, averaging 148.4 yards per game. The weakness so far has been on the defensive end for sure obviously, as they allow 30.3 points and 404.9 yards per game. But if you look at East Carolina's schedule to this point, it definitely has not been the toughest. I think the Cougars are the correct call here. I think they're going to play with a major sense of desperation after three straight losses. East Carolina has its bye week after this, and that's followed by three straight really tough games to end the year (at Cincinnati, against Houston and at Temple.) Give me the hungrier and more motivated home side to finally put it all together and post a solid win and cover in this one; the play is BYU! AAA Sports |
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10-22-22 | Washington v. California UNDER 54.5 | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 34 h 28 m | Show |
10* UNDER Washington/Cal (ASSASSIN) Washington has seen the total go "over" the number in all seven of its games this season, inlcuding in its 49-39 win over Arizona last weekend. The Huskies are averaging 42.1 PPG, but I think that they'll finally come back down to Earth here vs. 3-3 Cal. Washington is 5-2 and on the cusp of eligibility. The Golden Bears are off a 20-13 loss to Colorado. Cal plays with "revenge" here, as Washington has won seven of the last ten in this series. Washington's defense is pretty good, allowing just 28.6 PPG. The Bears are even better though, conceding just 21.7 PPG. The "under" is 4-1 in the last five Bears games overall, and it's also 4-1 in the Bears last five following an ATS loss. Look for a much tigher, and ultimately lower-scoring "under" once the smoke finally clears form this one! AAA Sports |
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10-22-22 | Utah State +5 v. Wyoming | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 58 m | Show | |
8* Utah State (SPECIAL) Utah State is 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS, while Wyoming if 4-3 SU/ATS. In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Aggies come in with some momentum, first they beat Air Force 34-27 two weeks ago, then it beat Colorado State 17-13 last weekend. Utah State's offensive and defensive numbers are somewhat skewed after a few early blowouts. The Aggies average 19.9 PPG, and allow 31.7. Wyoming is off a 27-14 road win over New Mexico as a 3-point favorite. Wyoming only averages 23.3 PPG, while allowing 387 yards of offense per contest. Utah State's ground game is firing on all cylinders and its defense just held Colorado State to just 13 points. While the outright win isn't out of the question, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can with the Aggies! AAA Sports |
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10-22-22 | Boston College +21 v. Wake Forest | Top | 15-43 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 21 m | Show |
10* BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC GOY) BC is 2-4 and Wake is 5-1. I think the Eagles will keep this one much tighter though than what this spread is suggesting. BC has lost five of its last six on the road, but QB Phil Jurkovec keeps his team competitive. He has 1,335 passing yards, ten touchdowns and six interceptions. The defense is allowing 29 points and 371.7 yards per game. Wake Forest comes in confident after winning 12 of its last 13 at home. After going up early though, I can't see the Demon Deacons keeping the foot on the gas in the second half with a road game at Louisville up next. Sam Hartman has been great, he has 1,442 passing yards, 16 touchdowns and only two INT's. The weakness though comes on the defensive end though, and that's where I like Jurkovec this weekend. Wake allows 25.5 PPG and 385.3 yards overall. BC has faced a tough schedule to this point. Its numbers are a bit skewed. Am I suggesting that BC will win this game outright somehow?! Of course not, but as I've outlined, the stage is definitely set for a tighter battle than most would expect; grab the points, the play is Boston College! AAA Sports |
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10-21-22 | UAB +2 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 1 m | Show |
10* UAB (ASSASSIN) UAB is 4-2, most recently off the 34-20 win over Charlotte. Dylan Hopkins had 231 yards, a TD and an INT. They average 34.5 PPG, while allowing just 17.3. DeWayne McBride has been unstoppable on the ground so far with 778 yards and 11 rushing TD's thus far. WKU is 4-3 and off a 35-17 road win over MTSU. Austin Reed went 32 of 49 for 278 yards, two TD's and an INT. It averages 40.4 PPG, while allowing 22.7. WKU has played the weaker competition to this point, and its offensive and defensive numbers have to be called into question with a 73-0 win over FIU in Week 3. I think UAB is the better overall team. Definitely its defense is. Look for the BLAZERS to, at the very least, deliver with the ATS cover. AAA Sports |
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10-15-22 | New Mexico v. New Mexico State +7 | 9-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
8* New Mexico State (BLOWOUT) This is the 112th version of the Rio Grande Rivalry, and while I'll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I think we're going to see a tight battle until the final whistle. New Mexico is off a 27-14 home loss to Wyoming last weekend nad it's now lost two in a row. New Mexico State lost 21-7 to FIU two weeks ago, and it comes in focussed after its bye week. The Lobos average 259.7 yards per game on offense. The Lobos defense has been better though in allowing 22.8 PPG. The Aggies have been conceding 32.2 PPG in the early going. New Mexico State beat Hawaii 45-26 at home, but it's also been shutout twice. That won't be the case here today though at home, as I think the week off to prepare will be advantageous. New Mexico has won three straight in this series, and it may win a fourth as well. But it won't be easy. Grab the points, the play is New Mexico State! AAA Sports |
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10-15-22 | Northern Illinois v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 66 | Top | 39-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
10* UNDER NIU/EMU (MAC TOM) NIU is just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS. It's seen the total go "over" the number in all six of its games that it's played in this season. EMU is 4-2 SU and 2-4 ATS, and it's seen the total go "over" the number in four of its six games this year, including in its 45-23 road win at WMU last week. Both teams have been playing to many high-scoring games this season, hence the large O/U line we have attached to this one. But I expect a more defensive affair. NIU is off a 52-32 loss to Toledo, but it's seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after allowing 50 or more points in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. EMU is very similar in that it has a good offense, and weak defense. These facts though have only helped in driving today's O/U line a few points higher than it normally would/should be. Expect a little more running, a little more defense and for this total to sneak "under" the number once the final whistle sounds! AAA Sports |
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10-15-22 | Kansas v. Oklahoma -7 | Top | 42-52 | Win | 100 | 123 h 23 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma (BIG 12 GOY) Kansas is 5-1 and Oklahoma is 3-3 coming into this Week 7 Big 12 matchup. With a date at Baylor next week, the Jayhawks could be caught "looking ahead" here. Kansas is coming off a 38-31 home loss to TCU and I think will struggle again here after losing starting QB Jalon Daniels to injury in the setback. Oklahoma on the other hand is coming off one of the worst and most humbling losses of all time in its 49-0 setback at home to Texas. Despite that though, the Sooners are still ranked 64th in the country in scoring with 30.8 PPG. They were without starting QB Dillon Gabriel for that one. He'll likely be back for this one, but even if he's not, I think the Sooners can take advantage and rally from last week's embarrassing effort. Nick Evers got a chance finally after his team was down by 40 points, and he looked a lot better than Davis Beville. Yes Oklahoma looked terrible last week, but let's not overreact. It's now time for the Sooners to react and I think they can bounce back and take care of business aginast a Kansas team off its first loss and down to its back up QB; lay the points, the play is Oklahoma! AAA Sports |
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10-14-22 | UTSA -33 v. Florida International | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
10* UTSA (ASSASSIN) UTSA is a massive favorite here. It comes to FIU at 4-2, while the Panthers come into this game at 2-3. UTSA most recently comes in off a tight 31-28 home win over Western Kentucky, unable to cover the 6.5 points. The Roadrunners were outscored 14-7 in the final quarter, but they managed to hold on for the victory. Quarterback Frank Harris had 273 yards and one touchdow, while Brenden Brady had 83 rushing yards and a touchdown. Texas San Antonio is 2-1 on the road, and so the big question here is: can the Roadrunners cover this massive spread on the road and on the short week? Florida International could struggle to keep pace with the high-flying visiting side. The Panthers are coming off a 33-12 home loss to UConn as 5.5-point underdogs. The Panthers were down 20-0 at half time and were never able to recover. Quarterback Grayson James had 256 passing yards, but also two interceptions. The lone bright spot was running back Lexington Joseph, who had 103 yards and a touchdown. Now, UTSA did allow 481 yards and 26 first downs to Western Kentucky last weekend, but it posted 486 yards and 30 first downs of its own. Besides, Western Kentucky averages 40.8 points per game, while Florida International averages 16.6; lay the points, the play is UTSA! AAA Sports |
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10-13-22 | Temple v. Central Florida OVER 46 | Top | 13-70 | Win | 100 | 83 h 50 m | Show |
10* OVER Temple/UCF (TOW) The UCF Knights are 4-1 and the Temple Owls are 2-3. UCF has the 43rd ranked defense, allowing 347.2 yards per game. UCF has been even better offensively though, averaging 481.8 yards per game on offense. Temple is only averaging 282.8 yards per game while on offense the Owls only average 15 PPG. UCF put up 41 points on SMU at home here last week and despite how well the Owls have played defensively to this point, I think they'll struggle here in this difficult road venue. That said, look for Temple to open things up offensively here as well as it tries to keep pace. Considering all of the above situational information, I definitely feel that Friday's O/U line is low; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | Oregon State v. Stanford +7 | Top | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 56 h 2 m | Show |
10* STANFORD (PAC 12 GOM) Oregon State is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS, while Stanford comes in as the more desperate side at 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. Oregon State is the perfect opponent to face to try and get untracked, as the Beavers come in with zero momentum on the heels of two straight losses. Most recently they fell 42-16 to Utah on Saturday. Four turnovers didn't help their cause. Stanford comes in off a 45-27 loss to Oregon. The home side will have its opportunities here facing an Oregon State team allowing 27.2 PPG so far. Stanford is averaging 29.5 PPG, while Oregon State averages 33.4. With a home game against 4-1 Washington State next weekend, I think the visiting side gets caught in a TRAP game here. No outright, but expect it to come down to the wire; the play is the Cardinal! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | Kansas State v. Iowa State +2 | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 53 h 20 m | Show | |
9* IOWA STATE (ASSASSIN) While I clearly believe the outright win is in the cards, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can. Iowa State is coming off a crushing loss to Kansas last week and I expect it to take out its frustrations on the Wildcats. The home side is winless in conference play, while K-State is 2-0. The Cyclones will look to crush the Wildcats chances at the Big 12 title with the outright win here. K-State comes in off a satisfying 37-28 home win over Texas Tech. QB Adrien Martinez had 116 passing yards a TD, while also running for 171 yards and three more scores on the ground. RB Deuce Vaughn had 170 yards on 23 carries. They've been decent defensively, allowing 18 PPG so far. But Iowa State's defense ranks Top 15 in almost every category, allowing an average of only 255 yards per game. Overall they concede just 14 PPG. Last week Iowa State's kicker missed three FG's in the 14-11 setback to the Jayhawks. Overall they've averaged 26 PPG and note that the Cyclones are also 6-2 ATS in their last eight following a SU loss. K-State has a great run game, but Iowa State has an elite run stopping defense. Look for the hungrier home side to pull it off here; the play is Iowa State! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | Army +17.5 v. Wake Forest | 10-45 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 44 m | Show | |
8* ARMY (SPECIAL) Wake Forest is the No. 15 team in the country. It's coming off a 31-21 win at Florida State as a 6-point underdog. Off that upset victory, I'm expecting the home side to get caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent to its bye week the following week. Army is just 1-3 SU/ATS and it's off a 31-14 loss at home to Georgia State. I think the Black Knights sneak in under the radar here though and that they catch the Demon Deacons at a "good" time. Or at least we do as bettors here with Army, as I'm not predicting an outright upset or anything. The Knights will keep this game close with their rushing attack that ranks second in the nation with 303 yards per game. QB Sam Hartman is having a breakout season for the Deacons with 15 TD's to just two INT's so far, but I can't see the home side keeping the foot on the gas from start to finish. Will Wake Forest take care of business at home? Of course. But it won't cover this large spread against this motivated Army side looking to pull off an upset; grab the points, the play is the Black Knights! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | South Carolina +10.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 131 h 29 m | Show |
10* SOUTH CAROLINA (SEC GOY) Am I calling for an outright upset here? I'm not. I just think that this is a fantastic spot wager, as I believe Kentucky gets caught looking past its lowly opponent today to its home game against Mississippi State next weekend. Kentucky is coming off the tight 22-19 loss at Mississippi to fall to 4-1. Ole Miss is now 5-0. After that heart-breaking setback, and with a much more high-profile game to deal with next weekend, this = "TRAP GAME" for the home side. South Carolina is 3-2 SU, and just 2-3 ATS. It's coming off a 50-10 win over South Carolina State. It plays with revenge here after a 16-10 loss to Kentucky as a 4.5 point dog last year. South Carolina can lay it all on the line here as well with its bye week next weekend. The Gamecocks have the offense to keep pace, averaging 35.6 PPG. Kentucky averages 28.8. I say this is a few too many points to be giving up here. No outright, but much closer than expected, the play is South Carolina! AAA Sports |
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10-08-22 | North Carolina v. Miami-FL -3 | 27-24 | Loss | -120 | 50 h 17 m | Show | |
8* MIAMI (DESTRUCTION) North Carolina is 4-1 after beating the Hokies by a score of 41-10 last weekend. UNC is now tied with Duke for the top spot in the conference, but I'm expecting a step back here in this difficult road venue. Last week Drake Maye had 363 passing yards and three passing TD's, while also running in two more TD's on 73 yards rushing. This is a great situational play here tough as Miami comes in off its bye week from last week due to Hurricane Ian. Miami has had two weeks to absorb a terrible effort in a 45-31 setback to MTSU in Week 4, getting stopped on the 5-yard line twice and committing numerous tunovers. Before last weekend's win, UNC had allowed almost 500 yards per game of offense. There's a bit of a QB controversy for Miami, as Tyler Van Dyke was replaced by Jake Garica at half time in Week 4's loss. This competition though is a good thing for us though. UNC's weakness is on the defensive side and I think the unit has another big letdown here on the road; lay the points, the play is Miami! AAA Sports |
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10-07-22 | Houston +3 v. Memphis | Top | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 79 h 38 m | Show |
10* HOUSTON (AAC GOY) Houston is now 2-3 overall nad 0-1 in the AAC after a tough 27-23 loss to Tulane last Friday. The Cougars gained 383 yards of offense, but they struggled defensively in the second half. Clayton Tune though is a solid QB and I think he'll be a difference-maker in this one. He's already passed for 1,201 yards, nine TD's and just three INT's. Keep your eyes on RB Brandon Campbell as well, who has 243 rushing yards and three TD's. Memphis is 4-1 and 2-0 in AAC play after beating Temple 24-3 last weekend. Memphis gained 331 yards of offense, with QB Seth Hennigan passing for 195 yards a TD. He has 1,246 passing yards, nine TD's and two INT's overall. Both teams have struggle defensively. I see this contest being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the undervalued and very hungry dog in this case; grab the points, the play is Houston! AAA Sports |
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10-05-22 | SMU +3 v. Central Florida | Top | 19-41 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
10* SMU (ASSASSIN) This game was moved to Wednesday due to Hurricane Ian. SMU rolled over its first two opponents, but it's since dropped B2B games to TCU and Maryland. The Mustang's offense is firing on all cylinders led by senior QB Tanner Mordecai, who has thrown for 300 yards in all but one game so far (12:5 TD:INT.) The Knights are 3-1, but their competition has been very weak. The only decent team they faced was Louisville and they lost 20-14. The Knights only managed 3.9 yards per pass against a poor Louisville secondary as well. QB John Rhys Plumlee has averaged just 3.1 yards per pass this season. SMU's offense though has been impressive, even in defeat. Neither team is known for its defense, but I give a big nod to SMU here overall. The outright is possible, but let's grab the points! AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | Stanford +17 v. Oregon | 27-45 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 34 m | Show | |
8* STANFORD (BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT) Am I calling for a straight-up, outright win here for Stanford as a massive underdog on the road? I am not. But I do think that the hungry Cardinal can comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the large spread they've been afforded in this one. Stanford is just 1-2, most recently falling to No. 18 ranked Washington by a score of 40-22. QB Tanner McKee though was decent, going 17 of 26 for 286 yards, three TD's and an INT. I think he'll be a difference-maker in this one as well. The Ducks are 3-1, but they're off a much tighter than expected 44-41 win at Washington State and a small mental letdown is imminent in my opinion. QB Bo Nix had 428 yards passing, three TD's and an INT for the Ducks last week, but as I said, everything points to McKee keeping pace here. Look for the Ducks to go up early, and then take the foot off the gas in the second half; the play is Stanford! AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | Colorado +17.5 v. Arizona | 20-43 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 31 m | Show | |
9* COLORADO (ATS BLOOD-BATH) Outright win? I'm not calling for it. That said, I think the 0-4 Buffaloes lay everything on the line here and keep this one more competitive than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Arizona is 2-2 and I expect it to get caught looking past its lowly opponent to its game here at home against Oregon next weekend. The Buffs are struggling on both sides of the ball, but we can expect their QB Owen McCown to move the ball today against a Wildcats' defense that's conceding 34 PPG. Arizona QB Jayden de Laura has eight TD passes to his credit, but he's also been intercepted six times. Look for Colorado to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch; the play is the BUFFS. AAA Sports |
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10-01-22 | South Alabama v. UL-Lafayette +7 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 129 h 22 m | Show |
10* LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE (SUN BELT GOY) I think this is a great spot here for the Cajuns and while I do think "sprinkling" a little on the money line is a good idea, the official call wil be to grab as many points as you can. South Alabama is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. The one loss was a 32-31 setback at UCLA as a 16-point underdog. In Week 2 the Jaguars were 6-point dogs at CMU, but won outright 38-24. They've been great, but with their "bye week" coming up next weekend, I think the Jags get caught a bit complacent here. 2-2 Louisiana Lafayette does not have that same luxury. It won its first two game handily, before then falling 33-21 to Rice and 21-17 to Louisana Monroe as a 9.5-point favorite. Perhaps the Cajuns got caught looking ahead to this one. Lafayette managed the 20-18 win over USA last year, but it did not come close to covering the 12-point spread. the Cajuns have a game at Marhall afrer this, putting extra importance onto this contest. I believe USA takes the foot off the gas in the second half, and that allows the Cajuns to, at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points, the play is Louisiana Lafayette! AAA Sports |
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09-30-22 | UTSA -4 v. Middle Tennessee State | Top | 45-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
10* UTSA (CONF USA GOY) UTSA is 2-2, while MTSU is 3-1. MTSU is off a big 45-31 road upset over then No. 25 Miami Florida and I believe a predictable letdown is in the cards here today. UTSA got hammered 41-20 to Texas, but it bounced back in fine fashion last weekend to destroy Texas Southern by a score of 52-24. The Roadrunners were a ridiculous 42-point favorite in that one. UTSA averages 37 PPG, while allowing 35. QB Frank Harris already has 1,310 passing yards, ten TD's and two INT's. MTSU averages 33.8 PPG, while allowing 25. QB Chase Cunningham has 1,000 yards passing, seven TD's and three INT's. Let's not read too much into MTSU's upset win last weekend against a bad Miami team. This UTSA defense has gone up against some tough competition and catches a break this week. Look for the Roadrunners up-tempo offense to prove to be the difference here (also note that UTSA is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 on the road) and lay the points! AAA Sports |
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09-29-22 | Utah State +25 v. BYU | Top | 26-38 | Win | 100 | 36 h 29 m | Show |
10* UTAH STATE (GOW) I think Utah State sneaks in under the radar and I expect it to post a solid cover here with the large spread that it's been afforded. The Aggies are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS after last week's 34-24 home loss as three-point dogs to UNLV. BYU is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. It's coming off a 38-24 win over Wyoming. But with a date at Notre Dame up next, not only is this a "look ahead" spot for the home side, but also a "letdown" position as well. Look ahead + letdown = TRAP! Utah State plays with revenge after falling 34-20 as an 8.5-point dog last year as well. I believe BYU goes up big early, but then takes the foot off the gas in the second half. Grab the points, the play is Utah State! AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Stanford +13 v. Washington | Top | 22-40 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 37 m | Show |
10* STANFORD (PAC 12 GOY) Washington is 3-0 SU/ATS, but with a date against UCLA next weekend (also 3-0 SU/ATS currently), I think this is a "TRAP" game for the home side. Stanford is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. It's coming off a 41-28 loss to USC. Tanner McKee had 220 yards passing and a TD. The Cardinal also rushed for 221 yards. So far Stanford is averaging 34.5 PPG, while allowing 25.5. The Huskies upset Michigan State in their last game by a score of 39-23, on the road no less. As I said, with a date against UCLA up next, not only does this set up as a "letdown" spot, but also a "lookahead" position. Add those two things together and you get "trap" game. Washington has so far averaged 45.3 PPG, while allowing 18. Clearly, no outright, but because of all these situational factors working in favor of Stanford here (including in trying to avenge last year's loss), the play in this one is indeed on Stanford! AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Boston College +17.5 v. Florida State | Top | 14-44 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
10* BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC GOW) Boston College comes in under the radar here in my opinion after starting the season 1-2. Florida State is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. But this is a classic "trap" game for the home side with a date vs. 3-0 Wake Forest next week. Last week BC crushed Maine by a score of 38-17. Sure it was just an FCS team, but it was a confidence booster. QB Phil Jurkovec went 25 of 37 for 320 yards and a pair of touchdowns. FSU QB Jordan Travis was 17 of 17 for 157 yards, two TD's and an interception in his team's 35-31 road victory over Louisville last weekend. Both teams have been decent defensively. Listen, I'm not calling for the outright upset here, but this is just WAY too many points to be giving up. Look for BC to comfortably sneak in through the back door and grab the points! AAA Sports |
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09-24-22 | Northern Illinois +26.5 v. Kentucky | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 32 h 27 m | Show | |
8* NORTHERN ILLINOIS (SPECIAL) The bottom line here is that I believe that this one sets up as a classic "letdown/lookahead" spot for the home side. Letdown + lookahead = TRAP GAME. Kentucky is 3-0 SU/ATS, but with conference play starting next week vs. South Carolina, I think the Wildcats will go up big early, and then take the foot off the gas in the sceond half. NIU is 1-2 SU/ATS. The Huskies start league play next week as well. I expect NIU veteran QB Rocky Lombardi to move the ball in the second half. Kentucky has some playmakers on defense, but the offense hasn't been that impressive. This is just WAY too many points to be giving up, as the oddsmakers try to catch the public money. No outright, but closer than expected; the play is Northern Illinois! AAA Sports |
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09-23-22 | Boise State v. UTEP +16 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 29 m | Show |
10* UTEP (ASSASSIN) Boise State is 2-1 straight up, but 0-2-1 ATS. UTEP is only 1-3 SU, but 0-4 ATS. Neither team has been good for bettors this season, but here's one where I think that the home side is favored. Boise State is on a two-game win skein, but with a divisional matchup with SDSU at home, followed by Fresno State, this sets up as a classic "trap" game for the Broncos. The Boise State offense has some issues, as OL Mason Randolph and TE Riley Smith are both questionable with injuries, while wide receiver Austin Bolt (leg) is out for the year. The Miners admittedly have issues on both sides of the ball, but they forutnately catch the Broncos at an ideal time. I think the home side plays with passion here, and while I'll stop short in calling for an outright, I expect a "rocking chair" cover with all these points; the play is UTEP! AAA Sports |
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09-17-22 | Fresno State v. USC UNDER 72 | Top | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 111 h 10 m | Show |
10* UNDER FRESNO STATE/USC (NON-CONF TOY) USC is 2-0 SU/ATS after smoking Rice 66-14 and Stanford by a score of 41-28. With a date at Oregon State next weekend, followed by the heart of the PAC 12 schedule, I am expect this high-powered Trojans offense to go up early, and then to take the foot off the gas in the second half. Fresno State is 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS. It fell 35-32 at home to Oregon State last weekend as a 1-point favorite. USC hasn't won at Stanford in almost a decade, so last weekend's victory was an emotional one. Can anyone say letdown spot here?! This season the average total for USC contests is 63.3 points, 7.7 less than the over/under of this particular contest. The over/under for this game is 10.2 points more than the average over/under in Fresno State games this season (60.8 points) as well. I base my selections on many different things, but taking a "situational approach" when it comes to my totals is one of many different tactics that we employ over the course of the season. This one sets up great from a situational stand point, as we believe this O/U line to be a few points too high; the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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09-17-22 | San Diego State +21.5 v. Utah | 7-35 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
8* SDSU (SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION) I'm not calling for the outright obviously, but I do definitely expect Utah to take the foot off the gas in the second half of this one. Both teams are 1-1 SU. SDSU is 0-2 ATS and Utah is 1-1 ATS. The Aztecs lost 38-20 to Arizona in Week 1 and then they beat Idaho State by a score of 38-7, unable to cover the large 34-point spread. But now SDSU is the big underdog in this matchup. Utah lost 29-26 at Florida as a 2.5-point favorite, and then took its frustrations out on Southern Utah in last week's 73-7 destruction. With a game at Arizona State next weekend though and the start of conference action for real, this sets up as a bit of a trap game for the home side. The Aztecs are a run first team. Last week they had 488 total yards. SDSU's defense bounced back after a poor showing in its opener as well. It's difficult to rate Utah quite yet, as it looked pretty pedestrian in the Week 1 loss, and then who knows with last week's blowout victory. Utah though is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU victory of 20 or more points, while SDSU is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games and 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 following an ATS loss. Utah will win this game, and avenge last year's loss to SDSU, but I expect it to be much closer than what this large spread would indicate. As I said off the top, no outright upset or anything this year, but expect a battle until the end; the play is SDSU! AAA Sports |
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09-17-22 | Miami-FL v. Texas A&M -6 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
8* TEXAS A&M (ATS BLOOD-BATH) Miami has outscored its first two opponents by a score of 100-20. Texas A&M is 1-1 after a shocking loss at home to Appalachian State last weekend. I say the Aggies bounce back here though. They were 18-point or so favorites in that contest! Miami beat Southern Miss in its last outing. Note though that this is the Hurricanes' first road game this season and they went just 2-2 away from friendly confines last year. Tyler VanDyke was a standout last week with 261 yards passing and a TD. A&M did indeed lose 17-14 to App State last week. QB Haynes King only had 97 passing yards, no TD's and no INT's, one week after passing for 364 yards in the season opener. The Aggies though have done very well in this spot, as they're 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. teams with winning records, 15-5 ATS in their last 20 non-conference contests and 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. the ACC. Miami on the other hand is a dismal 1-7 ATS in its last eight following a straight up victory. Look for the home side to pull away for the comfortable win and cover! AAA Sports |
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09-16-22 | Florida State v. Louisville +3 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
10* LOUISVILLE (ACC GOM) Louisville fell to Syracuse by a score of 31-7 in Week 1, but then it bounced back with a 20-14 victory over UCF as a 5.5-point dog in Week 2. I believe that the home side can keep the momentum rolling here in this important early Conference matchup. FSU comes to town at 2-0 SU, beating Duquesne 47-7 in Week 1, then holding on for the 24-23 win over LSU as a 4-point dog last weekend. FSU has so far allowed an average of only 15 PPG, but Louisville has conceded just 22.5. The Seminoles have averaged 35.5 PPG in the early going, but those numbers are skewed. Expect Jordan Travis and Treshaun Ward to have a much more difficult time on the road in this conference matchup. Louisville QB Malik Cunningham had 353 yards passing, no TD's and two INT's. Tiyon Evans has 164 rushing hards and two TD's. I think FSU finally has a letdown here, while I expect Cunningham to finally deliver with a big performance in front of the home town crowd; grab the points, the play is Louisville! AAA Sports |
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09-10-22 | Eastern Washington v. Oregon -22.5 | Top | 14-70 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
10* Non-Conf GOW on Oregon. Eastern Washington lost a lot from last year and is in the wrong part of town . Oregon has won 28 consecutive non-conference home games. After his team got destroyed last week, Oregon coach Dan Lanning said this:"Really got to put to bed the Georgia game. Obviously disappointed with the result in the first game. Lot of stuff that we can improve and work on, but really proud of the fact that our guys attacked that in practice. We talk about taking our medicine, going to the doctor, figuring out (how) we can get better. And every one of those guys walked into that room ... and they weren't finger pointers, they were thumb pointers -- what can they improve? ... We've got good players and we can play a lot better than we played." Lanning is a first year coach here and he will be feeling the pressure to deliver a big win. The Ducks scored 61 last time they played this team. Lay the points. AAA Sports |
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09-10-22 | USC v. Stanford UNDER 67 | Top | 41-28 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
10* PAC 12 TOY ON USC/STANFORD UNDER USC flexed its offensive muscles last week. The new coach and QB (Riley and Williams) from Oklahoma lived up to the hype. They will face a different challenge this week. Stanford ran (and passed) the ball very effectively in dismantling Colgate. The balanced offense and quality ground game will help to keep the Trojans on the sidelines. No recent game between these teams has had a total remotely close to being this high. The last four meetings here at Stanford have all finished under the total and so will this one. Defense! AAA Sports |
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09-10-22 | Arkansas State v. Ohio State -44 | 12-45 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
8* DESTRUCTION ON OHIO STATE This is a mismatch of epic proportions. They can't make the spread high enough. The Buckeyes took a bit to get started against Notre Dame. They got it going though and will be good from the start of this one. Arkansas State faced Grambling in its opener. So, this is about as a big a step up in class as a team can take. They will not be prepared. Buckeyes are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. This will be a thrashing! AAA Sports |
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09-09-22 | Boise State -17 v. New Mexico | 31-14 | Push | 0 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
8* HOOK AND LADDER ON BOISE We played against the Broncos in their Week 1 loss to Oregon State. New Mexico is a far cry from OSU. The Broncos routinely beat the stuffing out of this team. Last year's game was typical, a 37-0 crush-job. The previous meeting was 42-9. The Lobos are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Lobos are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS their last four, off an ATS loss. Lay the points! AAA Sports |
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09-04-22 | Florida State v. LSU OVER 49.5 | Top | 24-23 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
10* Total Of The Week on FSU/LSU Over The winner of this game is likely going to score more than 30. The loser may even do so. If not, the losing team should still score more than 20. Seminoles are off a huge offensive display in their opening game. They put up 47 points and could have scored more if needed. The over is 5-0 the past 5x that the Seminoles scored 40 or more points in their previous game. The over is also 8-2 the last 10x that the Tigers played in the month of September. Go with the Over. AAA Sports |
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09-03-22 | Boise State v. Oregon State -2 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 31 h 44 m | Show |
10* Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on OSU Surprised to see the Beavers favored? Don't be. Boise State has had more success than Oregon State. So, it might seem surprising. The Beavers are going to be pretty good this season though and this will not be one of the Broncos' better teams. Not right away, at least. They lost a lot from last year. They aren't a good running team and that will make it hard to keep Oregon State off the field. The Beavers were brilliant here last season. They are balanced on offense and will prove too much for Boise. Lay the small number. AAA Sports |
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09-03-22 | NC State v. East Carolina +12.5 | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show | |
*8 ASSASSIN ON EAST CAROLINA NC State will have a good year but this will be a tough test. A noon ET start first game against an underrated, upset-minded, motivated instate rival. Host ECU is coming off its best season in several years. The Pirates were set to go to a bowl (for the first time since 2014) last year but the Military Bowl was canceled due to a COVID-19 outbreak. That makes for some unfinished business. The Pack are 5-13 ATS their last 18 on the road. Grab the points. AAA Sports |
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09-02-22 | TCU v. Colorado UNDER 58.5 | Top | 38-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
10* ESPN Top Tier on TCU/Col Under Big number for two unproven offenses. Colorado wasn't good offensively last year. The Buffaloes were shutout once last season and scored three points on another occasion. They scored 13, 20 and 20 in their final three games. They averaged 18.8 ppg and 257.4 ypg. That ranked 121st and 129th, respectively. They couldn't pass or run the ball. Ugly. TCU was better but still not amazing. The Frogs averaged 28.7 ppg, 65th in the country. They scored 17 or less in four of the final six games and 31 or less in all of those. Again, a very big total for two offenses yet to show they'll be better this year. Too big. Seven of last eight Colorado reg. season home games have finished with less than 60. Go Under. AAA Sports |
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09-01-22 | Penn State v. Purdue UNDER 53.5 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
10* Big Ten T.O.Y. on Penn State / Purdue Under Four of the Lions' last five games finished with 45 or fewer points. Six of their past seven games stayed below the posted total. The PSU offense will be committed to running the ball a lot. Offensive line with a lot of new faces though so yards won't come easily. Most recent meeting (2019) had a total of 55.5 and finished with 42. Purdue managed just 104 total yards in that game, Penn State recording 10 sacks. History repeats with another defensive battle. AAA Sports |
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01-10-22 | Georgia -2.5 v. Alabama | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 204 h 3 m | Show |
10* GAME OF MONTH on Georgia. They say, "revenge is a dish best served cold!" The Georgia Bulldogs do indeed play with revenge here, as they look to atone for the 41-24 loss as 6-point favs to the Tide in the SEC Championship Game. Georgia looked great in its 34-11 win over Michigan last week, as did Alabama in its 27-6 victory over Cincinnati. So what's going to be different this time around for the Bulldogs? Alabama has in fact had a few close calls and scares over its last eight games. Georgia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent in which it conceded 40 or more points in. Expect a bounce-back performance from the Bulldogs defensively as well here. I believe the majority of the public will be grabbing the points today, but while they "Zig," we'll "Zag." Lay the points! AAA Sports |
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01-01-22 | Utah v. Ohio State OVER 64 | Top | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 49 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Ohio State has had some opt outs, including receiver Chris Olave, but the nation’s #1 scoring offense (45.5 points/game) should still put plenty of points on the board in this year’s Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes were also the nation’s leading team in total offense at 551.4 yards/game. They still have QB C.J. Stroud to throw the ball to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is the most talented receiver in the program. But there are now big questions about this Buckeyes’ defense after it got run over by Michigan in a loss that cost them a spot in the Big 10 Championship Game. It was the third time that the Buckeyes allowed 200+ yards rushing in a game this year. One of the previous two was in a home loss to Oregon, a team Utah crushed twice. The Utes are going to run the ball effectively on New Year’s Day; they are averaging 216 yards rushing per game and 5.6 yards/carry. There were only three games that Utah failed to score at least 30 points. During their current six game win streak, they have averaged nearly 40 points/game. Return man Britain Covey had two punt returns for touchdowns and should consistently give his team good starting field position. Before their last three games all stayed Under, Utah was on an 11-2 Over run. Play on OVER AAA |
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01-01-22 | Kentucky -2.5 v. Iowa | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 600 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KENTUCKY So this is the big one, our top play of the College season. On New Year’s Day (Jan 1) it’s #13 Iowa facing #22 Kentucky in the Citrus Bowl. It’s Big 10 vs. SEC here. Iowa is reeling off a 42-3 loss to Michigan in the Big 10 Championship Game. Really, the Hawkeyes were never as good as their lofty ranking this season. They were blown out - badly - three times. Their three losses - to Purdue, Wisconsin and Michigan - were by a combined score of 93-17. They had four wins by seven points or less. Six of the last seven games saw them lose the total yardage battle. The poor performance in the Big 10 Championship Game, and late season slide, cannot be ignored. It’s certainly why Kentucky now finds itself favored after opening as the dog. The Wildcats also experienced three losses this year, all in a row. It wasn’t the most daunting SEC schedule that they played. But they beat LSU by 21. If you can believe this, Iowa was outgained for the year - per game and per play! Quarterback is a question mark for the Hawkeyes and Kentucky pretty clearly is the better offensive team in this matchup. They average 33.2 PPG, a full TD more than the Iowa offense. UK is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS when it scores more than 19 points this year. The Wildcats have covered 10 of their last 12 non-conference games. This while Iowa is 2-5 ATS off a loss by 20 or more points. Play on KENTUCKY AAA |
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01-01-22 | Arkansas -1.5 v. Penn State | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 44 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARKANSAS Since this matchup was first announced, Arkansas has become the favorite to win the Outback Bowl. Not only is this the Razorbacks’ first New Year’s Day Bowl since 2008, it is the program’s first bowl of any kind since the 2016 Belk Bowl. So they will be motivated to win under second year head coach Sam Pittman. Arkansas played well down the stretch, winning four of its last five games. The only loss was to Alabama, by just seven points. Trending in the opposite direction is Penn State, which has lost five of seven following a 5-0 start. The Nittany Lions have now had two straight disappointing seasons for James Franklin. Both teams are down a key receiver. But the big story is the Penn State defense having five starters opt out of the game, safety Jaquan Brisker being the most notable. They also have an interim defensive coordinator for this game. Looking at the QB position, Arkansas’ KJ Jefferson is a dual threat that will cause problems for an inexperienced defense. Penn State’s Sean Clifford will feel the loss of his top receiver more as the Nittany Lions’ offense has struggled to run the ball all season. Before beating Auburn earlier this year, PSU had failed to cover five straight games vs. SEC opponents. Play on ARKANSAS AAA |