Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-14-22 | A's +1.5 v. Rays | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
9* A'S RUNLINE (DESTROYER) The A's won 4-2 last night and I expect another competitive effort from the visiting side today as well. Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena went a combined 0 for 9 yesterday for the Rays and I think they'll struggle again here against Cole Irvin, who enters hungry after starting 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA. He gave up 4 runs off 7 hits over 5 1/3's frames in a loss to the Phillies. Irvin has a big opportunity bounce back here throwing opposite Josh Flemming, who is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA. He pitched 3 1/3 scoreless innings in relief against Baltimore on Saturday. Let's not read too much into either pitchers first start. In a contest that I see being decided late or even in extras, I'm laying the "pick em" price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is the A's on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-13-22 | A's +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
10* A'S RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Tampa managed the 9-8 win yesterday, but I think that the A's bounce back here. Yes, I do think that the outright win is possible, but in the end let's lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. Frankie Montas got rocked in his debut for Oakland, allowing five runs off six hits over five innings. Last year he was 6-3 with a 3.41 ERA on the road. I say he definitely bounces back today. The Rays go with Shane McClanahan, who gave up no runs over 4 innings in a 2-1 win over Baltimore in his opener. The A's have smashed lefties this year early, averaging .346 collectively thus far. Look for that trend to continue here; the play is Oakland on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-13-22 | Red Sox v. Tigers +111 | 9-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
8* TIGERS (DESTRUCTION) Detroit took the first game by a score of 3-1, while Boston bounced back with the 5-3 victory yesterday. Boston has a day off after this before four straight at home and I believe it'll get caught looking ahead. Eduardo Rodriguez gets to face his former team for his new team and I expect him to make the most of "home field." He just signed a $77 million dollar deal with Detroit, so this is a big game for him: "It's something that no matter what the results are, you just want to have a good game, pitch good and win the game," he said. "All in all, I'm going to enjoy having the opportunity to face my old teammates." Last year he was 13-8 with a 4.74 ERA. He gave up 3 runs on 4 hits over 4 innings in a no-decision to the White Sox in Detroit's opener. Nathan Eovaldi (0-0, 5.40), gave up three runs off five hits over five innings to the Yanks in his season debut. I like Rodriguez to clutch up here and deliver a gem. As Bob Barker used to say, "The Price Is Right!", as well; the play is the Tigers! AAA Sports |
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04-12-22 | Astros v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (BOB) The Astros go with right-hander Luis Garcia, who finished 11-8 with a 3.48 ERA last season. He was the runner-up for American League Rookie of the Year. The Diamondbacks go with Madison Bumgarner, who is 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA after throwing 3 innings on Opening Night. The Astros come to town after going 3-1 at the Angels. It was the opposite for Arizona though, which dropped 3 of 4 games at home against the Padres. That included a 10-5 loss here Sunday in which the team made 3 unearned errors: "Three unearned runs to me is unacceptable," Arizona manager Torey Lovullo said afterward. "That game should have been a lot closer than it was. We've got to get better. We've got a day off (Monday). We can turn the page. That's all we can do. We can learn from it, move on, keep pressing and teaching. Do what we can to make something good happen on Tuesday." I like the veteran a home here and I believe the hungrier home side will, at the very least, keep this one competitive late; grab the 1.5 runs with the Diamondbacks on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-12-22 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -114 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
8* YANKEES (SPECIAL) Off a 3-0 loss in yesterday's series opener, I like the Yanks to respond and bounce back on Tuesday. Yusei Kikuchi was 7-9 with a 4.41 ERA in 2021 with the Mariners, while Nestor Cortes Jr. was 2-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 2021. Kikuchi is just 1-2 with a 4.75 ERA in 4 career starts against the Yanks, while Cortes Jr. is 1-1 with a 5.09 ERA in 7 career outings vs. the Jays. Let's call these starters a "wash." New York though is 6-1 in its last 7 vs. lefties, while Toronto is interestingly 1-4 in its last 5 road games when the total is set between 9 and 10.5. New York plays with immediate revenge after last night's shutout loss and I believe it's well worth the price of admission this evening; the play is the Yankees! AAA Sports |
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04-11-22 | Marlins v. Angels -1.5 | 2-6 | Win | 141 | 15 h 9 m | Show | |
8* ANGELS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) I don't only like the Angels to win this game, I like them to win by a significant margin. Because of that, let's lay the 1.5 runs for the decent "plus money return." Michael Lorenzen will make his debut for his new team tonight: "I'm meant to be here," Lorenzen said. "This is my home. And when you're gone for seven years, you really realize 'I miss my home.' You go a little extreme and I guess I've gone a little extreme, but I love being here." He's 6-10 with a 4.95 ERA overall in 26 career starts, but a much sharper 1-2 with a 2.94 ERA in 14 career games (three starts) vs. the Fish. The visitors counter with Eliser Hernandez, who was 1-3 with a 4.18 ERA over 11 starts last season. It's already been noted that Hernandez will be held to just 75 pitches or 5 innings tonight as well. Look for the Angels to take advantage! The play is LA on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-11-22 | A's +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 13-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
10* ATHLETICS RUNLINE (GOW) Tampa swept Baltimore, but I think it'll have its hands full today against the Atheltics, who avoided a three-game sweep at Philadelphia with a 4-1 victory yesterday afternoon. Paul Blackburn will take the mound to start for the visitors. He owns a pedestrian 5.74 lifetime ERA. Tampa counters with Luis Patino, who owns a slightly better 4.47 lifetime ERA. Oakland proved yesterday that it still has talent in its lineup, and I say the A's hang around late and make this one interesting. While I do believe the outright victory is a possibility, let's lay the "pick em" price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is the A's on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-11-22 | Brewers v. Orioles +1.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
9* ORIOLES RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) After starting 0-3, the Orioles are desperate to break into the win column. Here's a great opponent to possibly do that against, as the Brewers struggled in their opening series loss to the Cubs. Adrian Houser gets the call for the Brewers, and he was 10-6 with a 3.22 ERA last year, while the hungry Orioles turn to Bruce Zimmerman, who was 4-5 with a 5.04 ERA. Milwaukee though is a putrid 1-11 in its last 12 on the road. The Brewers bullpen has to be called into question as well, as Milwaukee's team ERA is 7.88, while Baltimore's is 3.94. This one will be tight, so I'm laying the "pick em" price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is the Orioles on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-10-22 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
10* OVER (ASSASSIN) The first game of this series flew "over" the number, the second game went "under." I expect tonight's finale to once again be a higher-scoring one. Tanner Houck toes the slab for the visitors; He was 0-1 with a 3.77 ERA over 31 innings pitched on the road last year. The home side counters with Jordan Montgomery, who was 6-7 with a 3.83 ERA last year. These two division rivals won't take it easy at the plate in this nationally televised contest. Neither team's bullpen can be trusted and I don't expect either starter to throw very deep. This all adds up to a higher-scoring "over!" AAA Sports |
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04-10-22 | A's +1.5 v. Phillies | 4-1 | Win | 102 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
8* A'S RUNLINE (SPECIAL) In what I believe will be a very competitive contest, I'm going to lay the "pick em" price for the extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket. The A's always seem to start slow and then find ways to win, and that could be the case again this season after 2 straight losses to open the season in Philly. The Phillies go with Zach Eflin, who was nothing special last year, finishing 4-7 with a 4.17 ERA. The visitors go with Daulton Jeffries, who makes his third major league start here. He's 1-1 with a 5.82 ERA so far. I say these starters are equal. I also say the A's get out to an early start here as well finally. The outright is possible, but the official call is to play the A's on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-09-22 | A's v. Phillies UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) Philadelphia pulled away for the high-scoring 9-5 win yesterday, but I expect much more of a classic pitchers duel on Saturday afternoon. Cole Irvin finished 10-15 with a 4.24 ERA last year for the A's, while Kyle Gibson was 10-9 with a 3.71 ERA and who was traded to the Phillies last summer. He's 5-3 with a 4.47 ERA lifetime against the A's. Gibson's familiarity of this club is another strong situational factor we can use here as well. Expect these two capable starters to throw deep, and look for this total to fall under! AAA Sports |
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04-09-22 | Mariners v. Twins -132 | 4-3 | Loss | -132 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
9* TWINS (SPECIAL) No need to overthink this one. The Mariners managed a victory in yesterday's Season Opener, but I expect the home side to answer here. Logan Gilbert was 6-5 with a 4.68 ERA for the M's last year, while Sonny Gray was 7-9 with a 4.19 ERA for the Reds (now on the Twins.) Gray though is a sharp 5-3 with a 2.84 ERA in 12 career starts against Seattle. Expect Gray to outduel his counterpart and lay this price with confidence; the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports |
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04-08-22 | Rangers +1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 8-10 | Loss | -128 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
10* RANGERS RUNLINE (GOM) The Blue Jays have made a lot of moves in the offseason which have many believe that they're now the team to beat in the American League. That may turn out to be the case, but on Opening Day, almost anythign can happen (just ask the Braves!) I see this one being decided late or even in extra innings, so I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. Sonny Gray was 8-12 with a 4.59 ERA in 29 starts for the Rockies last year and in 2 career outings vs. the Jays he's 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA. Jose Berriors was 12-9 with a 3.52 ERA in 32 starts betwen Toronto and Minnesota last year. He's 2-1 with a pedestrian 5.47 ERA in 5 career starts vs. the Jays; the play is Texas on the runline! AAA Sports |
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04-08-22 | Mariners +102 v. Twins | 2-1 | Win | 102 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
9* MARINERS (ASSASSIN) Here's an interesting matchup, as I give a big nod to the Mariners on the mound, but I give the Twins the advantage at the plate. It's a classic matchup, but in this case, I believe the talent discrepancy on the mound will prove to be the difference-maker for the visiting Seattle Mariners. Seattle finished second in the AL West with a 90-72 record last year. The Twins were in last place in the AL Central with a 73-89 record. Joe Ryan gets the nod for Minnesota, and he went 2-1 with a 4.05 ERA in five starts and 30 K's for Team USA in the Tokyo Olympics. It's the first rookie starter to start on Opening Day for the Twins since 1969. Ray went 13-7 with a 2.84 ERA in 32 starts in 2021 and he's the reigning Cy Young Award winner. Great value on the superior pitchers; the play is Seattle! AAA Sports |
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04-08-22 | Red Sox +150 v. Yankees | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
9* RED SOX (DESTRUCTION) My analysis will be pretty succinct over the the first week of the season. The bottom line with this one is that I believe that Nathan Eovaldi and the hungry Red Sox have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one. Yes, the Yankees have something to prove this year, and Gerritt Cole is a tough opponent, but he was a pedestrian 2-2 with a 4.91 ERA in four starts against Boston last year. Eovaldi was 2-2 with a 3.71 ERA in six starts against New York last year. Plenty of sluggers on each side, but the value swings to this undervalued underdog on Opening Day in my opinion; the pay is Boston! AAA Sports |
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04-07-22 | Astros +112 v. Angels | Top | 3-1 | Win | 112 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
10* ASTROS (GOW) I think the deep and talented Astros will pull off the slight Opening Day upset. Shohei Ohtani went 9-2 with a 3.18 ERA In 23 starts last year for the Angels, while Framber Valdez was 11-6 with a 3.14 ERA in 22 starts for the Astros. The difference for me though is that Valdez was 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in 2 starts against the Astros last season, while Ohtani went 0-1 with a 6.10 ERA in 2 starts vs. Houston. Expect Valdez to continue his dominance over the Angels! AAA Sports |
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04-07-22 | Reds +180 v. Braves | 6-3 | Win | 180 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
8* REDS (SPECIAL) I've always felt that there's tremendous value on Opening day. Especially when betting underdogs on Openind day! I've often found that the bookmakers lines are soft on opening day, and that's the case here with Cincinnait, which I believe has much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one. Tyler Mahle finished 13-6 with a sharp 3.75 ERA in 33 starts last year. The Reds let Nick Castellanos go, while the defending champs failed to sign Freddie Freeman. The Braves go with Max Fried, who was 14-7 with a 3.04 ERA in 28 starts last year. Expect the hungrier visiting side to pull off the upset on Opening day; the play is the Reds! AAA Sports |
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11-02-21 | Braves v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER With the World Series set to return to Houston, the designated hitter is once again in play for both teams. That’s going to lead most bettors to believe that we’re possibly in store for a high-scoring affair in Game 6. But really, Game 5 has been the only “high-scoring” game of the World Series and that was due in large part to a Braves’ grand slam that was hit in the first inning. That won’t happen again. Take that one swing away and Atlanta has scored just eight runs total in the rest of the last four games. Tonight they must face Luis Garcia, who has a 2.71 ERA and 1.00 WHIP at home and more importantly a 12-3 Under record here. Only twice in the past eight games has Astros pitching allowed more than three runs. Opponents are barely batting .200 during that eight-game run. The Braves have Max Fried on the mound for Game 6. While Fried has turned in two straight subpar outings, the Under is 11-5 in his 16 road starts this year. Fried has allowed three runs or fewer in 23 of his last 29 starts. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-31-21 | Astros -112 v. Braves | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston’s back is against the wall now as they trail three games to one. They must now beat Atlanta three straight times. The good news is that if they win tonight, not only do they stay alive, but the remaining games would be at home. The Astros have scored just two runs in two games in Atlanta. But we think the lineup wakes up from its slumber in Game 5. We know that the Braves have won 11 straight home games. But the Astros have to start hitting better with runners in scoring position (they are 0 for their last 17 in that situation). Atlanta’s pitching has done a great job so far in the series. But the relievers have had a heavy workload that may catch up with them in the end. No team in MLB history has gone 8-0 at home in the postseason. Matzek, Jackson and Smith have all thrown in each of the last two games. As of this writing, the Braves still haven’t announced a starter. No matter who it ends up being, we look for Houston to at least double its scoring output from the last two games. We also trust Framber Valdez to get the job done. He’s been better on the road all year and won the close-out game vs. Boston in the ALCS, giving up one run and three hits in eight innings. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-30-21 | Astros v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER While we aren’t exactly sure who will be “starting” this game for the Braves, who are now up two games to one in the 2021 World Series, we are pretty positive that the Astros are going to end up with more hits than they had last night. Led by a masterful outing from Ian Anderson, Atlanta kept Houston hitless for seven innings last night. All the Astros ended up with were two hits for the game as they lost 2-0. We liked it as the Braves were a winner for us and in breaking the game down we did issue a warning to Astros’ fans that the loss of the designated hitter could prove significant in Atlanta. But we trust Houston’s lineup will have at least a little of a bounce back tonight in Game 4 as Atlanta is going with a “bullpen game.” Not facing Anderson is a blessing for the road team, that’s for sure. The Astros still are averaging 5.8 runs/game for the entire postseason. The Braves are 6-0 at home in the playoffs and they stranded nine runners last night. So there’s a pretty clear cut case that they should have put more runs on the board in Game 3. They went 1 for 6 when they had runners in scoring position. Going up against Zack Greinke should help out the Atlanta offense. In Greinke’s only start during these playoffs, he lasted only 1.3 innings and gave up two runs. He’s not the same pitcher he once was and the Over is 26-10 in the Braves last 36 interleague home games vs. right-handed starters. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-29-21 | Astros v. Braves -109 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA Atlanta may have been the underdog coming into the World Series, but they quickly wrested away home field advantage by winning Game 1 in Houston. Game 2 was a situation where a play on the Astros seemed obvious, so that’s what we did and we won. But now we like the Braves at home in Game 3. Ian Anderson has been a much better pitcher than Luis Garcia in the playoffs. Anderson’s three starts have resulted in only three runs being allowed. Garcia has given up 10 runs in his three turns in the postseason and that’s despite him pitching only 9.3 innings. Anderson has thrown 12 innings. The Braves have yet to lose two straight in the postseason. We don’t think it will happen now. Off their first three playoff losses, they’ve outscored teams 16-4. Mid-September is the last time the Braves lost consecutive games. They’ve won 66% of the time since August 2nd. The Astros have lost 11 of the last 15 times they’ve played in a National League stadium, which of course means no designated hitter. Such is the case here. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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10-27-21 | Braves v. Astros -110 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Atlanta jumped all over Houston starter Framber Valdez in Game 1, scoring five times off him in the first three innings. It was pretty much over from there. But like a lot of people, we can’t see the Braves winning two straight on the road to open the World Series. It was a costly win for the Braves last night as Charlie Morton was lost to a season-ending injury. Max Fried will get the baseball in Game 2 and he looked very shaky in his last NLCS start, giving up five runs to the Dodgers in 4.6 innings. Houston did lose back to back games in the ALCS, but other than that they had just one losing streak going back to Labor Day Weekend. Their record at home this year is 55-32. The most recent time that the Astros lost two straight home games was August 22nd and 23rd and those losses came to two different teams. The last time the Astros lost two straight home games to the same opponent was August 5th and 6th to Minnesota. That was nearly three months ago. Game 2 starter Urquidy has a 0.88 WHIP in 10 starts at home. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-26-21 | Braves v. Astros -129 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -129 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON We think the Braves were pretty lucky to have what was - in our view - an undeserved “home field advantage” in the NLCS. They had 18 fewer regular season wins compared to the Dodgers. But because Atlanta won a weak NL East and LA was in the same division as San Francisco (and had to settle for a Wild Card), the rules said the Braves got the home field edge. They took full advantage by going 3-0 in Truist Park in the NLCS and won the series in six games. We bring this up because the Braves won’t have home field advantage in the World Series against the Astros. They head to Houston for Games 1 and 2 and this will present a challenge for the pitching staff as the Astros are a much stronger lineup than what the Braves are used to facing. There’s no pitcher coming up to bat in these next two games. The Astros have scored 6.7 runs/game in the playoffs. Atlanta gets to use the DH too, but we don’t think they can match the American League team’s firepower. Framber Valdez went eight innings in Game 5 of the ALCS and gave up one run on three hits. The Braves’ Charlie Morton is winless in three postseason starts with a 3.77 ERA. Almost every edge goes to Houston in this series. We’ll take them in Game 1. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-22-21 | Red Sox -101 v. Astros | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON All of a sudden, the Red Sox have stopped hitting and they now find themselves facing elimination heading into Game 6 at Houston. The last two games, Boston has managed only eight hits and three runs, a far cry from the first two games of this ALCS when they had 32 hits and 25 runs. In fact, there was a six-game stretch in these playoffs where the Red Sox scored 51 times and collected 79 hits! We think they get back to that tonight with their season on the line. They’ll be facing Luis Garcia again. Garcia could only record three outs when he started Game 2 and served up one of the three Red Sox grand slams in this series. Boston will give the baseball to Nathan Eovaldi. He has a 10-1 team start record since August 23rd and has posted a 0.89 WHIP in his last three starts. Eovaldi’s recent numbers are a far cry from those of Garcia, who has an 0-3 TSR, 13.49 ERA and 2.54 WHIP in his last three trips to the mound. Yes, we remember that Eovaldi was one of the culprits in letting Game 4 get away (which really turned this series). But that was a unique relief situation and we expect him to resume his string of excellent starts. Over the last month-plus, the Red Sox have only one losing streak of more than two games. That won’t happen here. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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10-21-21 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The late innings have been unkind to under bettors the last two nights in MLB. We know as we had the Under two nights ago in Houston-Boston, a game that was 2-2 heading into the ninth. The Astros erupted for seven runs in the final frame though. Them putting two on the board in the ninth last night also sent that ALCS game Over. It’s been a similar deal here in the NLCS with a four-run eighth inning rally by the Dodgers sending Tuesday’s game Over and then a four-run ninth by the Braves sending last night’s game Over. We are on the Under in Game 5. Excluding the eighth inning eruption in Game 3, the Dodgers have not done much at the plate in this series. They were held to four hits in Game 4. Now it’s Max Fried pitching for Atlanta. Fried has been the best starter in baseball over the second half of the season. In his last seven starts, Fried has a 1.34 ERA and 0.78 WHIP, leading the Braves to a 7-0 record. He’s given up only four runs in his last five starts. The Dodgers turn to their bullpen to try and keep their season alive. We’ll count on them to limit the Braves’ offense as visiting teams have scored only 3.3 runs/game at Dodger Stadium in 2021 and hit just .209. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-20-21 | Braves v. Dodgers -208 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -208 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 6* on LA DODGERS Momentum has definitely shifted in the NLCS as the Dodgers were five outs away from being in an 0-3 hole to the Braves. Instead, thanks mainly to Cody Bellinger, they came back last night and won Game 3 by a score of 6-5. They’ve had a two-run lead in every game in this series and it’s difficult for us not to view them as the superior ballclub. Atlanta, who also took the first two games of last year’s NLCS against the Dodgers, now has to be a bit “shell-shocked” and feeling an all-too familiar sense of “deja vu.” We love the Dodgers with Julio Urias starting in Game 4. Urias was baseball’s only 20-game winner in the regular season. He comes into tonight with a 21-3 overall record. The Dodgers are 27-6 in all of his starts this season and have won the last 12! While Urias, when used as a reliever in Game 2, could not protect a lead in Game 2, he’ll be a lot better tonight in his normal role of starter. Atlanta is going with a “bullpen game” tonight, meaning we don’t officially know who is going to start. Nor do we care. The Dodgers are the better team and seized momentum last night. The Braves are 0-6 as a road underdog of +175 to +250 since 2019, four of those losses coming this season. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-19-21 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 10 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER We are 2-0 in the ALCS. Both wins, which came in Games 1 and 3, were with the Over. It sure didn’t take long for the Over to hit last night. For the third time in two games, the Red Sox hit a grand slam. They were up 6-0 after two innings and 9-0 after three. It was when the Astros scored three runs in the top of the fourth that the Over officially became a winner. But we are “switching sides” tonight in Game 4 as it’s time this ALCS saw an Under. The Over is 3-0 in the series and 5-0 the last five times the teams have met. Not shocking as these were two of the highest scoring teams in baseball during the regular season. They have both gone Over in six straight playoff games. But the O/U line is higher (up to 10.0) for Game 4 and Zack Greinke is the key for the Astros. Greinke has yet to start a playoff game in 2021. He had a mediocre regular season. But we think he’ll “step up” like he did when he threw a scoreless inning of relief against the White Sox in the ALDS. But the problem for Houston is that they had only five hits in last night’s loss. Assuming the Red Sox stop hitting grand slams, a wise assumption based on the fact they are already the first team EVER to hit three in the same series, their scoring is set to go down. Nick Pivetta will start for Boston. He threw four scoreless innings of relief in his last appearance and held the Astros to just two runs in six innings when he faced them in the regular season. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-18-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Let’s not overcomplicate or overthink things here. The two teams in this year’s American League Championship Series do not struggle to score runs. Houston leads all of MLB with a 5.4 runs/game scoring average. There is no drop off in scoring when they hit the road. They have scored five or more runs in nine straight games, going back to the final series of the regular season. The last seven games, which includes the regular season finale, has seen them average 6.9 runs/games while batting .293. The Astros will need to score plenty of runs to win here in Boston because the Red Sox average 5.8 runs/game at Fenway Park. That led the league in scoring at home. Going back to the Wild Card Game, Boston has averaged 6.4 runs/game and hit .318. There are reasons to be concerned about both starters in Game 3 on Monday. For Houston, Jose Urquidy has not pitched since the regular season finale. Eduardo Rodriguez of Boston has a 5.78 ERA at Fenway this year. Even worse is his 7.02 ERA in 10 career postseason starts and his 11.57 ERA in two regular season starts vs. the Astros. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-17-21 | Dodgers -171 v. Braves | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -171 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA DODGERS The Braves had “their man” (Max Fried) on the hill for Game 1. It resulted in a 3-2 win as the home team walked off in the bottom of the ninth, thanks to an Austin Riley base hit. But now it’s the Dodgers’ turn to go with their best pitcher and that obviously means Max Scherzer. The only Scherzer start that Los Angeles has lost was Game 3 of the NLDS. He still went seven innings, had 10 strikeouts and gave up only one run on three hits. It was a 1-0 loss. But Scherzer got his revenge on the Giants when he retired the side, with two strikeouts, in the bottom of the ninth of Game 5. Having now made 13 starts for the Dodgers, Scherzer has allowed 0 or 1 run in 10 of them. After a loss is when you really want to back LA. They are 16-2 after their last 18 losses. Going all the way back to the end of July, there have been only two times where the Dodgers lost two in a row. One was late July, the other was early September. We haven’t mentioned the fact Atlanta is starting Ian Anderson in Game 2 because it’s pretty inconsequential to this play. You’ve got to back the Dodgers tonight. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-15-21 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 102 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Going back to their series of the regular season (vs. Oakland), the Astros have averaged 7.7 runs over their last seven games, a stretch in which the Over is 6-1. Not to be outdone, the Red Sox scored 26 runs in their three wins over the Rays in the ALDS. They’ve averaged 6.3 runs in their last seven games. These were two of the five highest scoring teams in the regular season with Houston being #1. So this year’s ALCS figures to turn into a “slugfest” in short order. For Game 1, we’ve got two starting pitchers that have been struggling. Boston’s Chris Sale has a 10.39 ERA and 1.96 WHIP in his last three starts. Sale pitched one inning in the ALDS and allowed five runs. He has a 7.37 ERA and 1.71 WHIP on the road this year. Houston’s Framber Valdez has a 5.06 ERA in his past three starts after giving up four runs in each of the last two. The Over has hit in five of Valdez’s last six starts. All signs point to plenty of runs being scored tonight. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-14-21 | Dodgers +100 v. Giants | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA The two starting pitchers for Game 5 have proven themselves to be very difficult to beat. The Giants’ Logan Webb has not lost a game since May 11th. The team is 19-2 his past 21 starts. The Dodgers’ Julio Urias is 12-0 since June 21st with the team’s record being 16-2 in his past 18 starts. Both pitched well in their previous start in this LDS. So something will have to give. Might it be the bullpens that decide this game? The Dodgers’ pen seems to be fresher at this point of the series. Manager Dave Roberts has only had to make the call to the bullpen seven times in the last two games. The Giants have called upon 10 different relievers over the same time. While Los Angeles has been shutout twice in the series, they’ve still scored seven more runs than San Francisco over the course of the four games. The Giants have only scored nine runs the entire series and only five in the last three games. At the end of the day, we just think that the Dodgers are the better of the two teams. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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10-12-21 | Astros v. White Sox -110 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CWS The White Sox were able to stave off elimination with a 12-6 win on Monday. Then their season was extended another day when Mother Nature came calling on Tuesday. The rainout pushed Game 4 back to today and we think the situation favors the home team. Certainly, there’s no denying that the White Sox prefer to be at home. They are 54-28 at Guaranteed Rate Field as opposed to 40-43 on the road. It will be Carlos Rodon starting today’s game for the home team. Rodon was probably Chicago’s best starter in the regular season. He has battled injuries, including a sore arm down the stretch. But he threw five shutout innings in his last regular season start and brings a 2.37 ERA and 0.96 WHIP into the postseason. Houston is going with Lance McCullers Jr, who won Game 1. This is a change from Jose Urquidy, who was set to go yesterday before the rain said no. With the White Sox accusing the Astros of stealing signs, there’s some real “bad blood” between the two teams. But we think it boils down to the White Sox homefield advantage and being faced with elimination. The Astros are 0-5 in their last five road games. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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10-11-21 | Brewers +100 v. Braves | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE Atlanta was able to even this series up with a 3-0 win in Game 2. We did not have a play on that game. We did cash Milwaukee in Game 1 though. Believe it or not, we are even more apt to take the Brewers now that the series has moved to Atlanta. The Brewers were 50-31 on the road in the regular season. That’s a better record than they have at home. Not only does the team score more when it’s on the road, but they also give up far less runs. No team allowed fewer runs on the road than Milwaukee did during the regular season. They gave up just 3.4 per game while scoring 4.8 themselves. Freddy Peralta will be the starter for Game 3. He comes in with a 18-9 TSR, 2.85 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Peralta faced the Braves one time this year and he kept them scoreless for six innings. He allowed only two hits in the outing. The Braves are countering with Ian Anderson, who is 4-0 in his last six starts. But there were two different starts where Anderson allowed four runs and he’s allowed seven home runs in the last five starts. The Braves are only 42-38 at home. Throw in the fact the Brewers are 41-25 in day games and we really like the road team in this one. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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10-10-21 | Astros v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Houston is the highest scoring team in the majors. They average 5.4 runs/game. In the first two games of this series, they scored 6 and 9 runs. They’ve now scored six or more runs in five straight games going back to the final regular season series. If you’re looking for any sort of decrease in offensive production now that the Astros are on the road, you better think again. They average the same number of runs/game on the road as they do at home. But it is going to take quite a few runs to win tonight as Chicago puts up an average of 5.1 runs/game at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox had 11 hits in Game 2, but all were singles. They will face Luis Garcia here in Game 3. Garcia’s ERA is nearly two full points higher on the road than it is at home. So there is still hope for Chicago as they look to avoid being swept. But we are concerned that Dylan Cease was knocked around by the Astros earlier this year. He gave up seven runs to them back in June. With concerns about both starting pitchers, it seems quite probable that each team can score five runs tonight. Taking the Over seems like the logical move here. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-09-21 | Dodgers v. Giants OVER 7 | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Dodgers misfired in Game 1, losing 4-0 to the Giants. Even without Max Muncy’s 36 homers and 94 RBI’s, this lineup is far too potent to be held down like that again. This was the highest scoring National League team in the regular season. Only three American League teams scored more runs than the Dodgers in 2021 and they all got to use the DH most games. The Giants were the second highest scoring NL club and sixth overall. So even with two good starters on the hill for Game 2, we’re going to see more runs scored than we did in Game 1. Dodgers’ games average 8.7 runs. Giants’ games average 8.5. LA hasn’t lost a game with Urias pitching since July. But the southpaw did have one really bad start vs. the Giants this year, one where he got shelled for seven runs in five innings. San Francisco did homer three times Friday. Giants starter Kevin Gausman’s last six starts were all against non-playoff teams (three vs. San DIego) and he allowed seven homers. The offenses will get this one Over a low number. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-08-21 | Dodgers -116 v. Giants | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 9* on LA DODGERS Without question, the most marquee series in the Divisional Round is between the Dodgers and Giants. Both teams won 106 regular season games with San Francisco finishing one ahead for first place in the NL West. The Giants have the home field advantage and have been an incredible story throughout 2021, eclipsing their projected win total by 34! But the Dodgers are the defending World Series Champs and still the favorite. They had baseball’s best run differential in the regular season. As for which team comes into the playoffs hotter, the Dodgers have won eight straight (including the Wild Card Game) and 18 of 21. The Giants, not to be outdone, are 20-5 in their L25 games. We simply feel the Dodgers are the team to beat. Does it not speak volumes that they come into Game 1 as slight favorites? Maybe that shouldn’t be a surprise at all, considering the Dodgers have been underdogs in only two games all year. Walker Buehler is 16-4 with the third best ERA in baseball and is 7-1 all-time vs. the Giants. He won twice this year here in San Francisco. Logan Webb hasn’t lost since May 5th for the Giants, but is a lot less proven compared to Buehler on this stage. Since we like the Dodgers in this series, it only makes sense to take them in Game 1. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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10-08-21 | Braves v. Brewers -138 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE The champions of the NL East and NL Central meet in this League Division Series as Atlanta takes on Milwaukee. It was a 3-3 split of the six regular season meetings. Each series saw the road team win twice. By virtue of having the better overall record, the Brewers have home field advantage. The Braves weren’t even a .500 team until August. Something else the home team has for Game 1 Friday night is Corbin Burnes. He had as good a year as any starter in the majors. Burnes finished the regular season with a 2.35 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Since May 31st, the Brewers are 17-3 in his starts. So this is a tall mountain to climb for an Atlanta team that is just one game over .500 when not facing a division opponent. What’s so significant about that record is the fact no one else in the NL East finished with more than 82 wins. It was definitely the weakest of the six divisions this season. The afternoon start on Friday would seem to favor Milwaukee as they are 40-24 in day games. Look for Burnes to outpitch Charlie Morton in Game 1. Atlanta’s typically aggressive hitters will struggle against someone who doesn’t issue many walks. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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10-07-21 | Red Sox v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER It didn’t take long for the Red Sox to jump on Gerrit Cole in the Wild Card Game Tuesday night. A two-run homer by Xander Bogaerts in the first inning set the tone and it was pretty much smooth sailing from that point on. Now it’s a date with AL East winner Tampa Bay in the LDS. Of course, these teams faced one another quite a bit during the regular season. The Rays hold an 11-8 head to head edge, but what we found interesting is that both wins over Boston in September were high-scoring affairs. Conversely, the three times that the Red Sox defeated the Rays in September, the games were all low scoring. That said, the Red Sox did average eight runs/game in their eight wins over TB this year. We anticipate this being a high-scoring game. Boston’s Eduardo Rodriguez has an 8.10 ERA in eight prior playoff appearances. He’s 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA in 13 career starts vs. the Rays. Shane McClanahan will start for Tampa, but probably won’t go too long. Boston did get to him for four runs in five innings last month. These are two of the top four highest scoring teams in the majors. The Over is 24-10-2 in the previous 36 meetings. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-06-21 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 49 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD -1.5 (money line) They won 106 regular season games with a near $300 million payroll. But the Dodgers have to win a one-game playoff to move on. They finished one game back of the Giants in the NL West. San Francisco had the best record in the majors. If LA wins Wednesday, then they will move on to face those Giants in the NLDS. But first they must concern themselves with a St. Louis team that’s won 19 of its last 22 games. It was an incredible run for St. Louis to get here but they are pretty clearly outclassed in this matchup. The Dodgers are 18-3 in their last 21 games and have won the last seven. So they are every bit as hot as St. Louis is, if not hotter. They’ve also been much better over the full regular season. Max Scherzer was an unbelievable midseason acquisition for LA as they’ve won all 11 of his starts since he came over, even the last two when he didn’t pitch all that well. Scherzer has a 2.46 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over the full year. We understand that Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals has an 8-0 team start record his previous eight trips to the hill. But he did allow four runs the one time he faced the Dodgers. The last time Scherzer faced St. Louis, not only was it only an unearned run allowed in eight innings but he also had 13 strikeouts. The Dodgers have outscored teams by 1.8 runs/game at home, so we will gladly play the run line. Play LA DODGERS -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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10-05-21 | Yankees -117 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -117 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the YANKEES For most of Sunday, it looked as if one or both of these AL East teams would be forced into playing a 163rd regular season game. With Toronto already having won, a loss by either the Yankees or Red Sox would have put them into a tie with the Blue Jays for the Wild Card. As it turns out, both won by scoring the go ahead runs in the ninth inning. So we get the two long standing rivals representing the American League in the Wild Card Game. We like the Yankees to advance. They have been hotter down the stretch and are 6-0 their last six games vs. Boston. New York swept them at home in mid-August, then at Fenway the weekend before last. Over the second half of the season, the Yankees went 46-26. The Red Sox, on the other hand, have basically been a .500 team since the All Star Break. Gerrit Cole was a pretty obvious choice to start this game, despite a shaky last few starts. Boston’s Nathan Eovaldi also had a shaky finish to the regular season. Looking at two starters’ numbers, Cole’s are superior overall. He has a lower ERA and WHIP on the road than Eovaldi does at home. The Yankees have won their last eight games following an off-day. The Red Sox are just 4-14 in their last 18 games as an underdog. Play on NEW YORK AAA |
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10-03-21 | Cubs v. Cardinals -152 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -152 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 9* on ST. LOUIS The Cardinals are going to the playoffs. They don’t yet know who they’ll be facing in the Wild Card Game, only that it will be on the road against a 100+ win team. It comes down to what happens in the NL West between the Giants and Dodgers, who could be forced into Game 163 tomorrow if they are tied at the end of Sunday. That would probably be a dream scenario for St. Louis, who will be a big underdog in Wednesday’s NL Wild Card, no matter who they play. The good thing for Sunday is they are facing the Cubs, a 70-91 team playing out the string. Though the Cubs came from behind to stun the Cardinals last night, expect the home team to make it 20 wins in their last 22 games here. What a run it has been in the Gateway City. In addition to this incredible 19-2 run that they are, they’d beaten the Cubs seven straight times going into yesterday. No one disputes who the better team is here. The Cards send out Jake Woodford, who had a 1.90 ERA in September. The Cubs go with Alec Mills, who has given up 4+ runs in five of his last seven starts and has a 10.53 ERA in the previous three. St. Louis will want to go into Wednesday’s Wild Card Game with some momentum, not to mention win the final regular season game at home. Don’t overthink this one. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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10-02-21 | Brewers v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Dodgers beat the Brewers 8-6 last night, but the mood at Chavez Ravine ended up being somber as Clayton Kershaw exited the game with a forearm injury. His status for the playoffs is said to be “not great.” What a blow that would be for the defending World Series Champs, but they still have an outside shot at earning homefield advantage in the playoffs. They would have to win the final two games and have the Giants lose their last two. The second part of that equation is unlikely, but a team can dream. We’ve got a dream pitching matchup for Saturday as two Cy Young contenders face off. Corbin Burnes has the lowest ERA in the majors and Milwaukee has won his last 12 starts! Burnes has allowed no more than one run in 18 of his 27 starts this year. He is 7-0 on the road where his ERA is 1.64 and his WHIP is 0.77. If there’s anyone who can keep LA’s offense in check, it is Burnes. But on the flip side, Dodgers starter Julio Urias has a 10-0 team start record his last 10 starts! He has the most wins (19) of any starting pitcher in the majors. He’s permitted three runs or less in 25 of 31 starts. This figures to be a very low-scoring game, given the two starting pitchers. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-01-21 | Red Sox v. Nationals +1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASH +1.5 (RUN LINE) At the most critical point of the season, Boston is not playing like a team that wants to be a part of the postseason. They just lost two of three to a Baltimore team that has the worst record in the American League. That leaves them tied for the second Wild Card (with Seattle) and a game in front of Toronto. The Red Sox also got swept by the Yankees last weekend at Fenway Park. The final series of the regular season will be in an unfamiliar place, the Nation’s capital, as they take on the Nationals. Given Boston’s sudden inability to score runs, we will take the home team +1.5 on the run line. As far as the schedule is concerned, Washington has a slight edge heading into tonight’s opener as they were off on Thursday. They’re also going to have Jesse Rogers on the hill and he has given up no more than three runs in any of his five starts. He has a 0.84 WHIP at home. Boston goes with Eduardo Rodriguez. They’ve lost three of his last four starts and truthfully he’s not pitched as well as his 18-12 TSR for the year might indicate. The Red Sox have dropped five of their last seven series openers while the Nationals are 9-0 in their L9 interleague home games. Play WASHINGTON +1.5 AAA |
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09-30-21 | Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA -1.5 (RUN LINE) The Dodgers have had no problems beating up on the Padres lately. They’ve taken the past eight head to head encounters, including an 11-9 thriller last night. It should be no trouble at all winning this game by two or more runs. Six of those previous eight wins against San Diego have been by that margin or greater. Wednesday’s win kept the Dodgers two games back of the Giants in the NL West and still alive in the race for homefield advantage. So they’ve got something to play for. San Diego does not as a terrible second half has left them below .500 for the season, something no one would have imagined at the start of 2021. Injuries to the starting rotation got so bad that the team was forced to go out and sign Vince Velasquez to a minor league deal two weeks ago after he was released by Philadelphia. His three starts for San Diego have all been losses and his ERA is 9.00. It is scary to think what might happen to him here as he faces the highest scoring offense in the majors. The Padres won’t get the chances they did last night. The Dodgers blew a 5-1 lead by committing a couple errors. Tony Gonsolin has only allowed one run in three career starts vs. the Padres and has yet to allow more than three runs in any start this year. Play on LOS ANGELES -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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09-30-21 | Red Sox v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 130 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BALTIMORE +1.5 (RUN LINE) Baltimore has lost 13 of the last 15 times they’ve played Boston. But one of the two wins came in the opener of this series, 4-2 on Tuesday. The Red Sox struck back with a 6-0 win last night, which ended a four-game losing streak. The Orioles have been more competitive than usual over the past week, winning three of the last six games. They have been relegated to the role of spoiler in this AL Wild Card race and would like nothing more than to help knock Boston out of the playoffs. The Red Sox aren’t nearly as good on the road where they are just 39-37 and scoring 4.3 runs/game. They allow that same number of runs per game, so we give the O’s a chance to steal another one tonight. At the very least, they’ll keep the game within a run. The Red Sox are 1-5 in Nick Pivetta’s last six starts and he’s pitched better than usual of late. Pivetta has never lost to Baltimore, but his ERA in four starts against them this year is 4.15. Alexander Wells is still looking for his first win after eight starts and the good news is he’s coming off the best one since his season debut. There’s a lot of pressure on Boston right now with two teams within a game of them for that second Wild Card. Might they crack? Play on BALTIMORE +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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09-29-21 | Marlins v. Mets -165 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -165 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the METS These teams played a doubleheader on Tuesday. The Mets won both games, ending a five-game skid. The Marlins have now lost seven in a row. Both teams shuffled around their rotations for yesterday’s games. For Miami, it didn’t really matter as their offense has been putrid during this losing streak. They’ve managed only 14 runs in the last seven games and five of the runs came in one game. After managing just three runs in 16 innings of baseball yesterday (2nd game went to extras), we don’t see them turning things around at the plate here. It’s not been a good second half for Mets starter Taijuan Walker, but this is a matchup where he pretty clearly should excel. Walker’s numbers at home remain solid. The Mets are also 21-8 as a favorite of -125 to -175 at Citi Field. Visiting teams have averaged only 3.6 runs/game at this park in 2021 and the Marlins offense has struggled all season on the road. Elieser Hernandez isn’t good enough to turn around Miami’s fortunes as he allowed three home runs in his last start and has a 1.81 WHIP in his previous three. Play on NY METS AAA |
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09-29-21 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +108 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 108 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO The Yankees have to be feeling pretty good about their playoff chances right about now. They won for the seventh straight time last night, holding the Blue Jays to three hits in a 7-2 final. That gives them a two game lead over Boston, three game lead over Seattle and 3.5 game lead over Toronto, who is now really up against it and will face Gerrit Cole tonight. Beating Cole will not be easy. But Jose Berrios, the Blue Jays starter for Wednesday, has already beaten the Yankees once this month. In his only start against them here in 2021, Berrios held New York to two runs. Over his last seven starts, Berrios has a 0.98 WHIP and he’s looking to make tonight his seventh straight quality start. He has a very comparable team start record (16-15) to Cole (16-13) this year. Toronto has a winning record against the Yankees this year (10-7). Five Yankee relievers had to work 6.3 innings last night because of an injury to Jameson Taillon. So that could be an issue when Cole has to leave the game tonight. Toronto needs this game badly and we feel Berrios can outpitch Cole. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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09-29-21 | Nationals v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Here at Coors Field, it’s always expected to be a high-scoring affair. The Rockies average 5.6 runs/game themselves while also giving up an average of 5.1 runs/game. Year in and year out, Rockies’ home games seem to have the highest number of total runs/game scored in the National League, if not all of MLB. They’re right up there again this year. But after struggling to win here over the last week (it didn’t help that they faced the Dodgers and Giants), the Rockies won a low-scoring game over the Nationals last night, 3-1. This was after a 5-4 game, which Washington won, on Monday. We think this afternoon’s game will see a return to normalcy in Coors and even exceed the season average of runs/game scored here. Paolo Espino has started 17 games for the Nationals in 2021. He has a 5.90 ERA the seven times he’s started on the road. For the Rockies, Peter Lambert has started just once this year and he gave up two homers in 3.6 innings. Espino has never started in this park before. Going into yesterday, the Rockies were giving up an average of 6.0 runs/game over the last week. In the final game of the year at Coors, why wouldn’t you expect some fireworks? Washington is 13-2-1 Over L16 during Game 3 of a series. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-28-21 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -120 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO This is going to be a critical game and series between the Yankees and Blue Jays. Along with Boston, we’ve got three AL East teams separated by just two games in the race for the Wild Card. It’s a race the Yankees currently lead after sweeping the Red Sox this past weekend. Toronto is still a game behind Boston for the second Wild Card. They are hoping for a repeat of the last time they faced the Yankees. It was a four-game series at Yankees Stadium earlier this month and the Jays swept, outscoring the Yanks 25-8. Now they get them at home. This is New York’s first trip to Canada since 2019 because of COVID-19. The number of fans allowed at Rogers Centre has been upped to 30,000 (per game) for this series, so expect a strong home field advantage. As much as everyone talks about the Yankees, Toronto has been exceptional over the last month, winning 21 of their last 29 games. They will send out Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA in four starts vs. the Yankees this year. Ryu hasn’t started in 10 days, but we are confident. For New York, Jameson Taillon is also coming off the IL, although his stint was longer than Ryu’s. His last start was against Toronto and the Yankees lost that game 8-0. Though the Yankees may be leading the Wild Card race, it’s the Blue Jays who have a vastly superior run differential. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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09-28-21 | Marlins v. Mets -161 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NY METS (GAME 1) NL East rivals Miami and New York are resigned to “playing out the string” at this point. For the Marlins, they’ve known this fate for some time. They’ve spent the majority of the season in last place and carry a 64-91 record into this series with a five-game losing streak. Over the weekend, they were swept by Sunshine State rival Tampa Bay. The Mets are also on a five-game losing streak. For them, the last two months have been a nightmare as they’ve fallen from first place in the division to 73-82 overall. They were swept over the weekend in Milwaukee. Somebody is going to snap their five-game losing streak in the first game of today’s doubleheader and we believe it will be the Mets. They are at home where their pitching staff allows only 3.6 runs/game and a .220 batting average. Marcus Stroman will start this first game. He has a 2.13 in three career starts against Miami. The Marlins only score 3.8 runs/game on the road. So look for their struggles at the plate to continue. They put up only five runs total in the three games at Tampa Bay. Trevor Rogers has not won a decision for them since June 10th. That was a long time ago. He’s 0-5 in his last 11 starts and has seen a drastic rise in his ERA and WHIP. Play on NY METS (GAME 1) AAA |
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09-27-21 | Nationals v. Rockies -160 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -160 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO Don’t let the fact that the Rockies are 3-10 their last 13 home games fool you. All of those home games were played against three of the top four teams in the National League with nine of them against the Dodgers and Giants. Now they are going to host Washington, a team they took two of three from on the road last week. The Rockies are 46-32 at Coors Field this year. Factor out games vs. the Dodgers and Giants and that record improves to 41-18. The Nationals are not a threat. They are in last place in the NL East after losing three of four to the Reds over the weekend. Their record after a loss is 34-57 and they are just 29-49 on the road. German Marquez will start Monday’s game for Colorado. He’s one of the few to have mastered the usually unfavorable conditions at Coors. He has a 14-3 team start record at home for the 2021 season. It helps that the Rockies’ offense puts up an average of 5.6 runs/game at home as well. But Marquez has good numbers here, including a 3.49 ERA. Josiah Gray does not have good numbers for Washington as he’s allowed five or more runs in four of his last five starts. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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09-27-21 | White Sox -148 v. Tigers | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHICAGO Detroit has beaten Chicago four straight times going back to early July. That doesn’t make a whole lot of sense when you look at the two teams’ respective records for the season. The Tigers are 75-80 and seem headed for what would be a sixth straight losing season. The White Sox are 88-68 and clinched the AL Central on Thursday. Before losing the last four games to the Tigers, Chicago was 9-2 against them this year. Coming off a 5-2 win in Cleveland on Sunday, we expect the White Sox to gain a measure of revenge in this make-up game. The Tigers lost two of three to Kansas City over the weekend and will be without one of their hottest hitters, Victor Reyes, on Monday. That makes the job easier for Chicago’s Dallas Keuchel, who is getting the start this afternoon. Keuchel has given up just two runs each of his last two starts. Matt Manning will start for the Tigers. He has a 5.87 ERA in two starts vs. the White Sox. Despite pitching better recently, Manning has a higher ERA and WHIP compared to Keuchel this year. The White Sox are definitely the superior team and we can’t see them losing again to Detroit. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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09-26-21 | Blue Jays -190 v. Twins | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TOR Toronto finally got back in the win column Saturday, beating Minnesota 6-1. It was a game the Blue Jays “had” to have. With the Yankees beating the Red Sox again, Toronto is now two games behind both teams for the Wild Card. A win Sunday would get the Blue Jays within one game of tonight’s Yankees-Red Sox loser. We like Toronto to handle its business as they send Alek Manoah to the mound. The team has won the last six games Manoah has started. He’s allowed no more than three runs in 13 of his last 16 starts. The previous two, both against Tampa Bay, saw Manoah pitch very effectively. He gave up just two runs on six hits over 14 innings. The Twins are not playoff contenders and their starter Griffin Jax has a poor 6.52 ERA this season. Jax has given up 14 home runs in his previous nine starts. He’s allowed at least one HR in all nine. That would seem to be a problem as Toronto hit three homers yesterday to increase its MLB-leading total to 246. The Blue Jays really are an excellent team that deserves to make the postseason. They have a 39-18 record in day games. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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09-25-21 | Giants -139 v. Rockies | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SF San Francisco beat Colorado 7-2 last night, becoming the first team to 100 wins this season. The Giants are 16-4 in their L20 games but cannot afford to let up now as their division lead over the Dodgers is still just one game. Playing Colorado helps the cause. The Giants are 13-4 vs. the Rockies this year and have won the previous five meetings. The Rockies are a “tougher out” at home, but have now dropped four of five overall. DeSclafani will pitch for the Giants today. He is looking for a third straight quality start and eighth straight start with three runs or less allowed. DeSclafani has started four times against Colorado this year. The Giants are 4-0 in those games with DeSclafani giving up just five runs in 24.3 innings. The Rockies’ Jon Gray hasn’t been as fortunate when facing the Giants. He has a 1-2 TSR against them this year, one of the losses coming against DeSclafani earlier this year. The Rockies’ home field edge is dissipating as they’ve lost seven of their last eight games at Coors Field. The Giants have the most road wins in MLB (51). Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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09-24-21 | Rangers v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER These two last place teams are just looking forward to the end of the season. Baltimore is tied with Arizona for the worst record in the majors at 49-104. Texas isn’t too far ahead at 55-98. It was the Orioles striking first in the series with a 3-0 win Thursday. They and the Rangers have matching 74-72-7 O/U records on the year. This game we think will be a more high-scoring affair. It’s hard to trust either Spencer Howard (Texas) or Alexander Wells (Baltimore). The two starters are a combined 0-7 in 19 starts this year and the individual numbers are pretty ugly for both. Howard’s numbers include a 6.50 ERA and 1.47 WHIP having also spent time with the Phillies. Wells is even worse with a 8.65 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. Both guys have ERAs over 8.00 in their last three starts. None of Howard’s previous five starts have lasted longer than five innings, Wells has allowed five runs each of his previous two starts. The Rangers give up an average of 5.4 runs/game on the road. Baltimore allows 6.5 at home! Play on OVER AAA |
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09-23-21 | Astros v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Like you probably expected, the Astros have won the first three games of the series. They scored 10 runs in each of the first two games. They scored 9 yesterday, but this time it took them 12 innings to do so. They scored four in the top of the 12th to get the win and will now go for the sweep. We expect this one to be a lot lower scoring than the first three games. That’s mainly because of the two starting pitchers. Houston’s Lance McCullers is 4th in the AL in wins and 10th in strikeouts. The last four starts from McCullers have seen him never give up more than two runs. He has a 2.50 ERA this month. The Angels’ Alex Cobb is also having a good year. He’s allowed a total of just three earned runs his last five starts. He threw five shutout innings in Chicago last week, his first start back after a long injury absence. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-23-21 | Mariners v. A's -145 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OAKLAND Oakland (82-70) is now behind Seattle (83-69) in the Wild Card race after losing the first three games of this series. It’s now eight straight losses to the Mariners going back to late July. But, in a must win spot Thursday, we like the A’s to bounce back. They welcome back Chris Bassitt, the team leader in wins, to the mound this afternoon. Bassitt was leading the entire American League in wins when he took a line drive off his face last month. Five weeks later he’s back and we’ve got reason to believe he’ll pitch well here. Seattle doesn’t hit well, even though they’ve been winning in this series. Bassitt wasn’t just leading the American League in wins at the time of his injury, he was also first in innings pitched and starts. So he’d been the real workhorse of this staff. The A’s are below .500 since losing him. But he’s back now. Seattle’s Yusei Kikuchi has not won since August 3rd, which was nine starts ago. His last three starts have been exceptionally poor with 10 runs allowed in just 9.6 innings. Can’t see the A’s being swept in a four-game series at home. Despite their winning record, the Mariners have been outscored by 54 runs in 2021. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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09-22-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -116 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -116 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE The St. Louis Cardinals have won 10 straight games, putting them in position to make the playoffs as the NL’s second Wild Card. The race for this second Wild Card spot has been wide open all year long as it seems no team “wants it.” (Given that whomever gets the spot must face either the Dodgers or Giants on the road, it’s likely to be a “one and done” postseason venture). But the Cardinals are clearly the hot team right now. But looking at their season as a whole, the Redbirds haven’t really been all that impressive. Coming to Milwaukee and taking the first two games from the division-leading Brewers is impressive, but we see the win streak coming to an end tonight. Now with a four-game lead over the rest of the Wild Card chasers, we could see the Cards start to “let up” in the coming days. The Brewers are a great team, one that has allowed fewer runs than all teams besides the Giants and Dodgers. Today’s pitching matchup of Miles Mikolas vs. Brett Anderson seems like a wash on paper. But Mikolas has only started twice on the road this year and his ERA is 8.59. His WHIP is 2.05. Milwaukee has already clinched a playoff spot and would like to wrap the division up as soon as possible. If they win the next two games, then the pennant is theirs. We really like the fact that the Brewers are 38-18 after losing the first two games of a series. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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09-21-21 | Pirates v. Reds -1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CIN -1.5 (RUN LINE) The Reds are 11-3 against the Pirates this year. They beat them 9-5 on Monday. So we’ve got no hesitation about playing the run line today as the home team should once again easily win by two or more runs. Pittsburgh, as you know, is one of the worst teams. They actually did lead 5-0 early on yesterday, but from there it was all Reds, who scored the game’s final nine runs. There was an 85-minute rain delay, so maybe that’s why Cincinnati started slow out of the gate. What we do know is that Pittsburgh probably won’t score five runs again tonight. They have the lowest run total of any team. They put up only 3.4 per game on the road where they are now 22-53. Tyler Mahle, who is tied with Wade Miley for the team lead in wins on the Reds’ staff, is 3-0 vs. the Pirates this year with a 1.47 ERA. Making today’s starting pitching matchup even less favorable for the visitors is that Mitch Keller is 0-3 with a 7.86 ERA in six career starts vs. Cincinnati. The previous series that these teams played saw all four games decided by one run. So the odds of that happening again are pretty small. The Reds are three games behind a Cardinals team that has won nine straight for the second Wild Card. They need to rack up wins. Play on CINCINNATI -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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09-21-21 | White Sox -150 v. Tigers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -150 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CWS The White Sox lost 4-3 to the Tigers last night after blowing a three-run lead. But they did see their magic number to clinch the AL Central drop to two as Cleveland was swept in a doubleheader. It is possible for Chicago to win the division on Tuesday, but that will first require them handling their business this afternoon. (Would then need an Indians loss as well). Last night saw Chicago strike first with three runs in the third inning. But Detroit immediately answered with three runs of their own in the bottom half of the inning. The game was decided in the eighth when Harold Castro’s two-out single scored Robbie Grossman, who had been hit by a pitch and stole second. The start time for today’s game was moved up due to the threat of rain tonight in Detroit. We believe the quick turnaround benefits the road team as they should be eager to take the field and atone for last night’s defeat. The White Sox are 43-23 off a loss this year. They’re hoping for Dallas Keuchel to deliver a start similar to the one he gave his last time on the mound. Though he did not get the win, Keuchel allowed just two runs in six innings. Detroit has won its last three games against Chicago and the last three overall. But they are batting just .174 over the last week and Tyler Alexander has made it through six innings only one time in 12 starts. The Tigers’ bullpen has a 4.53 ERA, so yesterday was a much better showing than usual from them. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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09-20-21 | Blue Jays -124 v. Rays | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -124 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TOR Toronto (84-65) continues its quest to lock down a playoff berth with a visit to Tampa Bay (92-58) to start the week. This is the same Rays team that the Blue Jays took two of three from last week. That was at home, however the Jays have a pretty good road record as well (41-33). They’ve outscored teams by 1.3 runs/game on the road and that does not include the “home” games in Dunedin, FL or Buffalo, NY when they were not allowed to cross the border because to COVID-19. So technically, no team has won more games outside of their actual home park than Toronto. They are also 15-3 in September. While they won’t be able to catch the Rays for first place in the division, the Blue Jays have moved into the second Wild Card. They are two back of Boston in the win column. Passing the Red Sox would mean the Wild Card Game would take place in Toronto. The Blue Jays have to keep winning as the Yankees are just 1.5 games behind them and Oakland is two back. Tampa Bay is just 8-10 this month as they’ve hit a bit of a malaise. Sandwiched around the series loss to Toronto last week were two series against the Tigers and they lost four of the seven games to them, a below .500 team. Having top pitching prospect Shane Baz make his big league debut is cause for excitement, but this is a tough spot for Baz starting against Robbie Ray, who is looking to win the AL Cy Young. Ray has a 1.85 ERA in five previous starts vs. Tampa this year. The last time he lost was July 21st. In his last seven starts, Ray has a 1.91 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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09-20-21 | Orioles v. Phillies UNDER 8 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Two ballclubs in vastly different positions start an Interleague series on Monday. The Orioles (47-102) have the worst record in the majors and are simply waiting for the season to end. The Phillies (76-73) are trying to track down a playoff spot, whether it be the Wild Card or winning the NL East. As easy a matchup as it looks to be on paper for the home team, this could be a little tricky for Philadelphia. They lost by one to the Mets Sunday night as they could only put up two runs. John Means is Baltimore’s only good starter and he will be on the mound Monday. Means has seen all of his last five starts go Under the total. The most runs allowed by the left-hander in any of the five starts was three. But the Orioles are also 0-8 in Means’ last eight starts for a reason - they can’t score. In Means’ last six starts, they scored just 10 runs and were shut out on two different occasions. A team that scores only 3.7 runs/game now loses the designated hitter from the lineup. So the Phillies aren’t going to give up many runs with Ranger Suarez set to start this game. Suarez has a 1.85 ERA in his previous nine starts. That’s very good. The Orioles have won just one of their last nine games and it was a 3-2 win against the Yankees. The Phillies likely take this one, but the best bet is to take the Under, which has hit six of the last eight times they’ve been off a loss. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-19-21 | Braves v. Giants UNDER 8 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER It’s East meets West in this battle of division leaders. The Giants (97-52) have taken the first two games from the Braves (76-70) by scores of 6-5 and 2-0. The first game, which went to extra innings, saw us cash in on the home team. We noted that San Francisco has been far more consistent (they have the best record in all of baseball!) and far more profitable (now +40.0 units). As they go for the sweep Sunday, we’re going to play the Under this time. As already noted, Atlanta failed to score last night. That’s not uncharacteristic for Giants’ opponents. The SF pitching staff has allowed the third fewest number of runs in the majors. Anthony DeSclafani will start on Sunday. The Under is 3-0 in his previous three starts and his ERA is 2.12 in that time (his WHIP is 1.00). The Under is also 17-7 the last 24 times the Giants have been off a game where they were held to two runs or less. Atlanta only gives up 3.9 runs/game when on the road. They held the Giants to five hits Saturday. Max Fried has been on fire in the second half as he’s had a quality start in eight of his last nine appearances, including one complete game. They are 10-2 L12 road games. All signs point to this being a low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-18-21 | Twins v. Blue Jays -162 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Toronto lost last night to Minnesota, 7-3. They’ve lost four in a row to the Twins going back to 2019. All four losses took place at home and they were outscored 27-4. However, last night aside, this Blue Jays team has been red hot. Winners of 16 of 20, they’ve gotten themselves into the thick of the Wild Card race. But they can’t let up now. Friday’s results leave them a game back of Boston and a half-game back of New York. Those are the teams currently occupying the two Wild Card spots. It’s been a weird season for the Blue Jays (82-65), who have played “home games” in Dunedin, FL and Buffalo, NY. But they were finally allowed to cross the border in late July and that is when they started to surge. Now only four teams have a better run differential on the season than the Jays. Minnesota (65-83) has been a big disappointment in 2021, down 27.5 units and in last place in the AL Central Division. They came into this series off two straight losses where they had only three hits in both games. Steven Matz is the starter today for Toronto. He wasn’t at his best on Sunday when he gave up five runs. But he didn’t need to be at his best as the team won that game 22-7. Before that, Matz had given up only six runs in his previous five starts. Though they beat one last night (Ryu), the Twins are still only 17-33 vs. lefties this year. Ober will start for Minnesota Saturday. He’s not made it past 4.3 innings in either of his last two starts. The Twins will not hit four home runs again like they did Friday. Toronto is 37-17 in day games. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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09-17-21 | Braves v. Giants -159 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SF Division leaders clash in San Francisco tonight as the 76-68 Braves take on the 95-52 Giants. It just so happens that both teams are off two straight losses. Atlanta missed out on a chance to end their losing streak when yesterday’s scheduled game vs. Colorado got rained out. San Francisco lost 7-4 to the Padres. But we like the Giants for several reasons tonight. One is that they’ve gotten the job done over a much longer stretch than has Atlanta. The Giants not only have the best won-loss record in MLB, they are also #1 in the betting world, up 38.0 units for the year. The Braves were below .500 entering August. They’ve taken advantage of a weak division. San Francisco has had to fend off the Dodgers, who have the second best record in the majors, all season long. Logan Webb is responsible for a significant chunk of the Giants’ profitability as he has an 18-4 team start record and is +15.6 units. The Giants have won his last seven starts overall and are 9-0 when he takes the mound at home. Webb has 2.14 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in those last seven starts and 1.69 ERA and 0.98 WHIP at home this year. Because of the rain, Atlanta pushed back Ian Anderson’s start to today. The right-hander beat the Giants back on August 29th, however that was at home. Anderson has since given up three homers, six runs and 10 hits in eight innings. The Giants had won nine in a row before losing each of the last two days. We’ve got to back them with Webb pitching on Friday. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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09-17-21 | Padres v. Cardinals -130 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 9* on StL You’d have to go all the way back to May to find the last time the Padres (76-70) and Cardinals (76-69) hooked up. As you’ve seen by now, our 2021 Game of the Year took place in that series. It was in the middle of the three-game set and San Diego won 13-3, making us very happy. The Padres would go on to sweep that series, which was the start of a nine-game win streak. On June 25th, the team was 46-32 and feeling pretty good about itself. But things have changed. San Diego’s been a sub-.500 team these last three months and now trails the Cardinals - by a half game - for the NL’s second Wild Card spot. St. Louis is the hot team now as they’ve won seven of eight and five straight. They just swept the Mets in New York and had Thursday off. San Diego was in San Francisco yesterday. While they did win 7-4, this is just the third time in the last month they have won two straight games. It’s been more than a month since they won three straight. What makes this such a great spot to fade the Padres isn’t just revenge or recent form, but also they are being forced to start the recently signed Vince Velasquez due to the starting rotation being decimated by injuries. Velasquez was dropped by the Phillies in July after he allowed 11 runs over two terrible starts that spanned only 4.3 innings. Miles Mikolas is still working his way back from injury for St. Louis, but due to the spot being so favorable for the Cardinals we’ll look past his own recent struggles on the mound. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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09-17-21 | Twins v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 9* on TOR -1.5 It’s been a weird season for the Blue Jays (82-64), who have played “home games” in Dunedin, FL and Buffalo, NY. They were finally allowed to cross the border in late July and it was not long after that they began to surge. Winners in 16 of their last 19 games, Toronto finds itself in position to make the playoffs as a Wild Card. But they cannot afford to let up. There are five teams separated by only four games in contention for the two Wild Card spots. Boston is tied with Toronto and the Yankees are a half-game back. We don’t see there being any sort of letdown Friday as the Blue Jays face a Twins team that is already eliminated from playoff contention. Minnesota (64-83) lost 12-3 at home to Cleveland on Wednesday as it’s been a very disappointing season where they’ve dropped 28.5 units. That has them as the second worst team to bet on in 2021. Only Arizona (-37.1 units) has been less profitable. We haven’t hesitated to lay the -1.5 on the run line with Toronto recently. The last time we did so, they won 22-7 against Baltimore! Only three teams have a better run differential for the year. We like Hyun-Jin Ryu being on the mound tonight as Minnesota is 16-33 vs. lefties. Michael Pineda has a 3-7 team start record for the Twins since June 1st. The Blue Jays have won 18 of the 22 games this season where they closed as a home favorite of -175 or higher. They’ll win this one by at least two runs. Play on TORONTO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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09-16-21 | Tigers v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TB -1.5 Before they lost two of three in Toronto, the Rays lost two of three in Detroit last weekend. The deciding game was a real back and forth affair as the Tigers rallied back from a three-run deficit in the eighth inning, then scored two runs to win the game in the bottom of the 10th. Things should go quite differently at Tropicana Field though. So much so that we are willing to lay the -1.5 on the run line with the Rays tonight. The Tigers just aren’t very good outside the Motor City. Their record as a road underdog of +175 to +250 is 9-17 this year and going back to 2019, the record is 21-47. Tampa Bay has captured 37 of its last 51 games as a favorite. (They were underdogs in all three games at Toronto). When they’re at home, the Rays are winning by an average of 1.7 runs/game. Key to that margin is holding visitors to 3.3 runs/game. It’ll be Louis Head as an opener, followed by Dietrich Enns pitching for the Rays tonight. Enns had a really impressive relief effort against the Tigers last weekend where he didn’t allow a single base runner for four innings. With him expected to pitch the bulk of today’s game, don’t look for the Tigers to score much. Most don’t realize this, but the Rays are the top offensive team in baseball. Tyler Alexander has a 9-2 team start record for Detroit including a 10-4 win over the Rays last weekend. But we see his luck running out here. His two starts in September have lasted a combined eight innings. The Rays have a huge edge in the bullpen in this matchup. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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09-15-21 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER By far, the most surprising result in Major League Baseball Tuesday night took place here in Arlington where the last place Rangers (54-90) defeated the first place Astros (84-60). It was only the fifth time in 17 tries that Texas was able to get a win in the season series. Keep in mind that Monday’s game ended up 15-1 in favor of Houston. We expect the road team to get things going at the plate again tonight as they face struggling Kohei Arihara. Arihara has made two starts since returning from the 60-day injured list. Both have gone Over. An issue with him going back to the start of the season is that Arihara almost never makes it through the fifth inning. Five of his last six starts have gone Over and he’s winless at home with a 9.22 ERA here. That’s not good. Especially since he’ll be facing an Astros team that puts up the second most runs per game in the majors (5.3 per game). So the road team will definitely score in this one. How about the home team? Well, Houston’s rotation has been besieged by injuries of late and today’s starter, Jose Urquidy, has not been immune. Like Arihara, Urquidy spent two months on the injured list. He hasn’t looked the same since, only lasting a total of 7.3 innings in two starts. The Over is 4-0-1 in Urquidy’s past five outings. Unlike most of the recent matchups that have been one-sided, we think this Astros-Rangers game will feature plenty of runs from both sides. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-15-21 | Brewers v. Tigers UNDER 9 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER The Brewers (89-56) and the Tigers (69-76) combined to score a total of one run in 11 innings Tuesday. That was a misfire by us as we laid the -1.5 on the run line with the favorite. Now certainly we didn’t expect Milwaukee to give up many runs. They came into last night riding a five-game win streak where they’d allowed a total of just seven runs. Three of their previous seven wins have been shutouts. Sure enough, they held the Tigers to three hits including the game-winning double in the 11th. We can’t envision a scenario where the home team does much at the plate this afternoon. Detroit will be facing Brandon Woodruff, who is among the league leaders in both ERA (2.48) and WHIP (0.97). Woodruff was roughed up a bit on Labor Day and then given the weekend off due to illness. We expect him to pitch well this afternoon on extended rest. In four of his five August starts, Woodruff allowed either one or zero runs. He has 24 strikeouts against only four walks his last three starts overall. The Tigers struck out 18 times last night! The Brewers had their fair share of chances at the plate, but they went only 1 for 10 when they had runners in scoring position. They should have won the game despite managing just four hits - all singles. We don’t think they’re going to score a ton today. Yesterday marked the second time in seven games they were shutout. Detroit is going with Matt Manning, who has allowed three runs or less in four of his last five starts. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-14-21 | Cardinals v. Mets -164 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -164 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NY METS The Mets are looking to rebound from a 7-0 loss Monday. That leaves them 3.5 games back of the Wild Card and 5.5 games back of the division lead in the NL East. Most have already forgotten, but the Mets did lead the division for most of this season. They went cold in August at the same time the Braves got hot. But that’s all “water under the bridge” now as they need wins in a hurry. Marcus Strowman has been their most consistent starter (since Jacob deGrom went down) and will start tonight’s game vs. a St. Louis team that - prior to the ninth inning of yesterday’s game - hadn’t been doing a ton of scoring recently. The Cardinals have won the last two games in shutout fashion, but also have scored two runs or less in six of the last 10 games. Having won three straight, they are a ½ game back of the Wild Card now, but they’ve still got a negative run differential on the year. The Mets actually have a slightly better RD than the Cardinals (-10 vs. -13). We’re skeptics on St. Louis tonight as they have Jake Woodford set to go. He’s simply not as good as Stroman. The Cardinals can’t count on getting a start like the one they got from Adam Wainwright last night. If the Mets can swing the bats like they did vs. the Yankees (averaged eight runs/game in three game series) and Strowman delivers his usual solid start, then this will be an easy win for the home team. That’s what we see happening here. Play on NY METS AAA |
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09-14-21 | Brewers -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MIL -1.5 (RUN LINE) The Brewers have won five in a row overall. As they inch closer to the NL Central pennant, they can become the first team to 50 road wins on Tuesday when they head to Detroit. On paper, it looks like a very easy week for Milwaukee as they have two games here followed by three at home vs. the Cubs. At some point during a 10-game home stand, they will clinch the division. It’s just a matter of time. A string of strong pitching performances, including MLB’s 9th no hitter of 2021 on Saturday, have propelled the Brewers to an 89-55 record. They’ve scored 10 or more runs in three of the last five games, outscoring opponents 38-7. Detroit did just take two of three from Tampa Bay over the weekend, but they aren’t going to finish .500 and are just 4-10 in their past 14 home games. They are also 1-6 off their previous seven victories. Milwaukee has won seven of eight following an off day and 36 of its last 52 games overall. Tuesday’s starter Freddy Peralta has a 2.72 ERA and 0.95 WHIP for the Brewers and the team is 6-1 in his last seven starts. Detroit’s Wily Peralta (no relation) has not won a decision since July 18th. Pretty one-sided in our estimation. Why not lay the -1.5? Play on MILWAUKEE -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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09-13-21 | Twins v. Yankees -191 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 6* on NEW YORK There’s no time for the Yankees to stew over Sunday night’s 7-6 loss to the Mets. That’s because it’s right back to work this afternoon in a make-up game vs. the Twins. The Yankees are just 3-12 in their last 15 games and have watched as Toronto has passed them in the Wild Card race. But it wasn’t too long ago that New York was riding high on a 13-game win streak. That win streak included three wins against the Twins. It could have been four, but the finale of that series was rained out. That’s what we are making up today and we think the Yankees will “complete the sweep” 22 days later. Minnesota lost two of three over the weekend in Kansas City. They are in last place and have been one of the five worst teams to bet on in 2021. Their record vs. the Yankees is pretty poor. Not only did they lose three times here last month, but they are 11-43 in their last 54 games at Yankees Stadium. They are 3-12 in their last 15 games against the Yankees overall. The Yankees need a win very badly today and should feel confident handing the ball to Luis Gil, who has a 1.42 ERA in his first four starts. For Minnesota, John Gant gave up four runs in 3.3 innings the last time he faced the Yankees. He’s off his best start since joining the Twins, but actually needed 96 pitches to get through five innings. That was his most pitches thrown in any of his four starts with his new team. Home team wins this one. Play on NEW YORK AAA |
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09-12-21 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Orioles | Top | 22-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TOR -1.5 Toronto has finally done it! They caught the Yankees for the second Wild Card and are only a game behind Boston for the top Wild Card spot. They’ve won eight of nine after sweeping a doubleheader from Baltimore in remarkable fashion on Saturday. The first game saw them come back to win 11-10 with a four-run seventh (remember doubleheaders are only seven innings now). The second game was even wilder as they failed to get a single hit through the first six innings before erupting for an 11-run seventh! It’s Baltimore that they are facing again Sunday. After taking two crushing losses the previous day, we can’t see a team that has fallen to 50 games below .500 having much resolve today. Thus, our call is for the Blue Jays to win this game by two or more runs. From a value standpoint, the run line is obviously much better than a straight money line bet here. Steven Matz should handle a feeble Orioles lineup on Sunday. The Toronto left-hander has allowed no more than two earned runs in seven consecutive starts. Eight different Blue Jays homered on Saturday as the team scored 22 runs in 14 innings. They’re going against a rookie in Zac Lowther on Sunday. This is just Lowther’s third start and seventh appearance at the big league level. He was good in his most recent start, but the first one (which was back in May) saw him give up seven runs in 2.3 innings. Look for the Jays to rough him up on their way to a convincing win. Play on TORONTO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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09-11-21 | Giants v. Cubs UNDER 10.5 | Top | 15-4 | Loss | -104 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Cubs have won Zach Davies' last three starts. This despite Davies’ own 6.23 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in that stretch. Now his individual numbers are skewed a bit due to allowing six runs to Pittsburgh on Sunday. But you’ve also got to consider the last three opponents that Davies has faced. Not only was it the Pirates, but you also had matchups with Minnesota and Colorado. That’s two last place teams and a home start vs. a team that’s 20-50 on the road. It’s a much different caliber of opponent on Saturday for Davies and the Cubs. The Giants have the best record in the majors. Following a 6-1 at Wrigley on Friday San Francisco is 91-50 and has won five straight. They lead the Dodgers by 2.5 games in the NL West. Kevin Gausman has pitched very well for them this season and gets the start this afternoon. Gausman has a sub-1.00 WHIP overall and his ERA on the road is 1.95. In 26 of his 28 starts, Gausman hasn’t given up more than three earned runs. The Cubs are hitting just .219 against righties, so this is an awful matchup for them and they are very likely to lose. But we’ll also call for a quieter day than usual at the plate for the Giants. They’ve scored six or more in every game during this win streak. The Under is 11-3-2 in the Giants’ last 17 games in Chicago where they have lost 17 of 21. The Cubs have gone Under in four straight. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-10-21 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Dodgers and Padres renew pleasantries in what will be a big series for both teams. Believe it or not, San Diego holds the head to head edge in the season series, 7-6. But they did get swept at home by the Dodgers late last month. The Padres are desperately holding onto the second Wild Card spot in the National League with a one-game lead over Cincinnati while St. Louis and Philadelphia are also lurking close behind. The Dodgers have a playoff spot all but locked up as they are 13 games ahead of the Padres. But right now they’d also be a WIld Card, meaning they’d host San Diego in the one-game playoff. Los Angeles clearly has its eyes on the division crown though as they trail San Francisco by 2.5 games. Do not look for many runs to be scored in this game. The Padres send out Joe Musgrove and he’s given up two runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. Musgrove has gone at least six innings in six of those starts as well. The Dodgers counter with Julio Urias. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight straight starts. In fact, he’s allowed just eight runs total in those eight starts. The Dodgers have won the last six! We can’t believe this total isn’t lower. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-10-21 | Rays -160 v. Tigers | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -160 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TB We don’t think it’s a stretch to say the Rays should dominate the Tigers? While Tampa Bay does come into the series off a 2-1 loss to Boston, that was on Thursday. They’d taken care of business the first two games at Fenway Park and still enjoy a very comfortable nine game lead in the American League East. They are 88-52 overall and have the top run difference in the whole AL. They are putting up almost six runs/game on the road, which is way ahead of everybody else. Their 43 road victories are the most in the AL and third most in all of MLB. We should probably mention that the Rays have won 13 of their last 17 games overall. Michael Wacha will start Friday’s opener. He’s off perhaps his best performance of 2021. It was one week ago that Wacha held Minnesota to just two runs and three hits (two solo home runs) over six innings. Tampa won the game 5-3. Detroit has a 66-75 record and just lost two of three to the Pirates. Matthew Boyd will be making just his third start since coming off the 60-day IL. He wasn’t sharp in his last start, giving up five runs in a loss at Cincinnati. These teams haven’t played this season, but the Rays are 7-2 the last nine meetings. They’ve also won five straight series openers. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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09-09-21 | White Sox v. A's UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER We had the A’s last night and they won 5-1, evening this series with the White Sox up at a game apiece. Of the two teams, the A’s are the ones in greater need of more wins. Last night ended a four-game losing streak for them and they are three games back of the Wild Card. Chicago comfortably leads the AL Central by 11 games and will make the playoffs without question. But we are a little less bullish on the home team today. That’s because they won’t be going against Dallas Keuchel again. It’ll be Reynaldo Lopez starting this afternoon for the White Sox. This will be his sixth start of the year. While he’s yet to go more than five innings in any of the first five, Lopez has only given up eight total runs so far. He faced Oakland last month and held them to only one hit in five innings. The A’s didn’t even score a run in that game. The White Sox scored nine times, but they won’t get nearly that many today as they will face Sean Manaea. His last start was very good as he held Toronto to just a pair of runs in seven innings. It was rather unfortunate the A’s ended up losing that game 11-10, but you can blame the bullpen for that. These teams have met six times in ‘21 and none of the games have gone Over (three unders, three pushes). There have been just 15 total runs scored in the first two games and only one home run hit. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-08-21 | White Sox v. A's -162 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND Chicago comes in at 80-58 on the season and leads the American League Central by 11 games. Clearly, they are playoff-bound. Oakland’s situation is a lot more dicey. They are 74-64 overall, placing them seven games back of Houston in the AL West and 3.5 games back of the Red Sox for the Wild Card. The A’s losing streak hit four in a row last night with a 6-3 setback against the White Sox. We view tonight as a real “must win” for the Athletics and they probably do as well. Things were looking great on August 12th when the A’s had won seven in a row and were coming off a 17-0 win against Cleveland. They were 67-48 at that time. Since then they have lost 16 of 23 games. While it may seem tough to want to go with Oakland today, just look at the pitching matchup we’ve got on tap. Frankie Montas has a 1.31 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in his last three starts for Oakland. Dallas Keuchel has a 16.00 ERA and 3.11 WHIP in his last three starts for Chicago. That seems like a pretty substantial edge towards the home team. We don’t see the White Sox scoring many runs tonight. They are 22 games above .500 at home. But going into yesterday, they had a losing record on the road. They are 15-38 in their last 53 games as a road underdog. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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09-08-21 | Phillies v. Brewers -154 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee beat Philadelphia 10-0 last night, a complete reversal from Monday’s game which was a Phillies’ 12-0 win. Yesterday also marked the first time in six tries that the Brewers were able to beat the Phillies. They’ll try and do it again Wednesday and the odds are certainly in their favor. One day after hitting six home runs, the Phillies couldn’t do anything against Eric Lauer. They had just five hits in last night’s game. This season, the Brewers are 12-3 immediately following a shutout win. They are 30 games over .500 overall and have a franchise record 11-game division lead. It’s on Freddy Peralta to get the job done here. While he’s struggled due to shoulder soreness, we believe he gets the job done Wednesday night. Philadelphia is just 2-5 after being blanked. This will be their ninth straight road game. They are below .500 on the road this year, which is why they are behind in the Wild Card race. They’re just four games over .500 for the year. Kyle Gibson was hammered in his most recent start, giving up eight runs. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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09-07-21 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Eight runs were scored in yesterday’s Blue Jays- Yankees game and all of them came from the road team. Things could very well “flip” in favor of the home team today, but we expect more runs to be scored. While that may surprise you, given that Gerrit Cole is starting, Toronto has scored 37 runs in the last four games. They’ve scored at least eight times in all four. They could have scored even more than eight yesterday as the Yankees committed three errors, but none were capitalized on. Obviously, you’ve got to expect the Yankees will bounce back in the batters box tonight. Steven Matz’s career ERA vs. NY is 5.77. Matz’s last four starts have all been against bad teams - Seattle, Detroit twice and Baltimore. So it’s no wonder his numbers have improved recently. The Yankees are 6-1 after being shutout this season. Expect this game to go Over the total. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-07-21 | Mets -152 v. Marlins | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the METS The Mets lost Monday. But they still won the five-game series with Washington. Their other loss came as part of a doubleheader Saturday. Yesterday saw them give up two runs in the bottom of the ninth. That leaves the Mets at .500 and 4.5 games out of the Wild Card. Remember that they were leading the NL East for much of the season. Both losses over the weekend came about as a result of blown save opportunities, so really the Mets should be coming off a five-game sweep. They move onto Miami Tuesday to face the division’s other also-ran. Carlos Carrasco will start tonight’s opener. He has a 0.81 WHIP in his previous three trips to the mound. For his career against the Marlins, he is 1-0 with a 2.14 ERA in four starts. He was on the mound for last Thursday’s 4-3 win over them. The Mets won both games in that series. The Marlins are 6-14 playing with a day off, so no advantage there. This is a must win game and series for the Mets, so play accordingly. Play on NY METS AAA |
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09-06-21 | Rangers v. Angels -127 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -127 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LAA Given how this series - and season - have gone for the Rangers, the money line is way too low for Monday’s matchup with the Angels. We realize Texas did win yesterday 7-3. But they are just 17-30 after a win this season. Last place in the AL West was always the reality for a team that’s 40 games below .500 and 17-51 on the road. Obviously, that road record is just atrocious. The current plan with the Rangers’ starting rotation seems to be just getting looks at the young arms. AJ Alexy had an admirable major league debut last week, but that was against a Colorado team that doesn’t hit well on the road outside of Coors Field. The Rockies are one of the few teams who can match the Rangers’ ineptitude on the road. The Angels average almost five full runs per game at home. Jaime Barria should do well in this start. His previous start resulted in a win over the Yankees, a game where the Angels were +185 on the money line. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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09-06-21 | Reds -141 v. Cubs | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -141 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CIN The Reds look to put a disappointing stretch behind them when they visit Wrigley Field on Labor Day. Cincy no longer has the edge for the second Wild Card berth in the National League entering today’s action. They’ve fallen a half game behind San Diego, who is off Monday. The Reds just lost two of three at home to Detroit, an unacceptable result when you consider what they are playing for right now. Look for them to turn things around though against the Cubs, who had a horrible August. September has gone a bit differently on the North Side as the team is unbeaten. They’ve won six straight overall. But all six wins were against bad teams. The last four came in a weekend sweep of the terrible Pirates. Today’s pitching matchup greatly favors the Reds. Sonny Gray has a 1.00 ERA and 0.556 WHIP in his previous three starts. He’s won them all. Justin Steele is a rookie making just his fifth career start for the Cubs. The team has gone 1-3 in the first four, one of which was a 14-5 loss to the Reds. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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09-05-21 | A's v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TOR -1.5 (RUN LINE) Toronto looks to be rising from the dead. They’d lost 9 of 13 after falling to Detroit 2-1 on 8/27 and their playoff chances certainly looked to be on life support. But they’ve responded by winning six of seven and scoring 21 runs in the last two games. Each of those last two games were against Oakland and now the Jays can sweep on Sunday. They came from way behind on Friday, rallying three different times including a six-run eighth inning and a walk-off Marcus Semien three-run HR. Yesterday saw them jump out to a big 10-3 lead and hold on to win 10-8. Hard not to like this team right now, particularly with Robbie Ray starting. Ray has been great this year as his 14-12 TSR is highly misleading. He’s delivered seven straight quality starts where he’s allowed only nine runs. It’s a 1.72 ERA in that stretch and he has 35 strikeouts vs. only two walks his last three starts. Oakland is fading right now as they’ve lost 6 of 10. Cole Irvin’s last three starts have produced a 5.93 ERA and 2.121 WHIP. The fact he has the same TSR as Ray over his L7 starts is criminal. Let’s ride the hot team in this one with a pitcher who is due for another win. Play on TORONTO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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09-05-21 | Mets -122 v. Nationals | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the METS These teams played two yesterday. The Mets won the first game 11-9, but then the Nationals bounced back with a 4-3 win in the nightcap. What was notable about that first game is the Mets blew a nine-run lead. They needed a 2-run HR by Francisco Lindor in the ninth to win it. It was their sixth straight win as well as Washington’s seventh straight loss. The Mets had previously never blown an eight-run lead and lost. It was similar on Friday when they needed extra innings after blowing a two-run lead going into the ninth. We wouldn’t put too much stock in Washington winning the second game Saturday. It’s tough to sweep a doubleheader. What we do know is the Mets should be the more motivated team heading into Sunday’s series finale. They are 3.5 games back of Atlanta for the division lead and 4.5 games back of the Wild Card. The Nationals are a last place team simply playing out the string. Taijuan Walker, who will start today’s game for the Mets, is really due for a win. He has an 0-7 team start record his past seven starts despite having a 0.80 WHIP in the previous three. Those last three starts were all against either the Dodgers or Giants, the two best teams. Josiah Gray just gave up six runs in his last start for the Nationals. He’s allowed at least one home run in every start he’s made this season. Play on NY METS AAA |
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09-04-21 | White Sox -151 v. Royals | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CWS The White Sox were beaten 7-2 last night. That was unexpected as the Kansas City team that beat them just got swept at home by Cleveland. The Royals had dropped four in a row overall heading into Friday’s opener. But they’ve now won three straight over the White Sox. That said, Chicago leads this division for a reason. They’d previously won five of six and scored at least 10 runs in three of those five wins. Let’s just chalk up last night’s result to a 2+ hr rain delay and the fact that Dallas Keuchel hasn’t been very good lately. But Reynaldo Lopez has been good for them. In three August starts, the right-hander gave up just three runs and eight hits. While he pitched only 12 innings, we’ll take it. Kansas City had been held under four runs for four straight games coming into the series. Daniel Lynch hasn’t been giving up many runs lately, but that’ll change if his control issues persist. Lynch has a 4.47 ERA and 1.59 WHIP for the year. His worst start of 2021 came here at home against the White Sox. They blasted him for eight runs over a disastrous two-thirds of an inning. That was back in May, but Chicago still knows how to hit. They’ve averaged 7.3 runs over the last seven games. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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09-03-21 | Astros v. Padres OVER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Houston has been shutout in its last two games. As you’d imagine, such an occurrence is quite uncommon. It has happened once before in 2021. Sure enough, the Astros bounced back to score eight runs in the next game. That’s what we’re looking for tonight as we play the Over in the series opener with the San Diego Padres. Houston leads all teams in scoring this year, averaging 5.3 runs/game. San Diego’s pitching is in tatters right now and the chance to face Jake Arrieta is something Houston should take full advantage of tonight. Arrieta has been really bad - whether pitching for the Cubs or Padres. He has a 7.13 ERA over 21 starts. He’s failed to go more than four innings in any of his last six starts and has a 13.50 ERA in the last three. So we know Houston is going to put a crooked number on the board tonight. Look for San Diego also to score enough here to make sure the game goes Over. They are facing Jose Urquidy, who hasn’t pitched since June. Six of Urquidy’s last eight starts went Over with the Astros scoring at least nine runs five times. He’ll be on a pitch count. San Diego has gone Over its last seven interleague games vs. teams with winning records. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-03-21 | Pirates v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Pirates and Cubs started their series yesterday and the home team took the opener by a score of 6-5. It was not the most deserved win for the Cubbies, but after a disastrous August they’ll take a “W” anyway they can get it. In this instance, it was a mishandled pop fly by Pirates second baseman Wilmer Difo in the 11th inning that brought home the winning run. The Cubs did have 12 hits to the Pirates’ 7, so in that regard they did deserve to win. But their first five runs of the game all came in the seventh inning. It was the fourth straight win over the Pirates going back to May. The Cubs have now won three in a row overall. The Pirates wasted a perfectly good start from Mitch Keller last night. They are unlikely to get the same kind of outing here today from Steven Brault. Not only is Brault winless in his five starts this year, but he is coming off his worst performance yet. He gave up seven runs in three innings on Saturday. The Cubs have not been a good opponent for Brault. He is 0-2 with a 6.52 ERA against them in 16 appearances, which includes seven starts. Similarly, Cubs starter Alec Mills hasn’t been good in the past against the Pirates. He’s 0-2 with a 5.51 ERA in seven career matchups. The wind is expected to be blowing out today at Wrigley. With that bit of news, two subpar starting pitchers and the Over 4-0-1 the last five games at Wrigley, we’re going Over. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-02-21 | Braves v. Rockies OVER 12.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER You won’t find too many MLB totals higher than this one. But we’re at Coors Field where the average number of runs per game scored this season is 10.6. The Rockies average 5.9 themselves, the most by any team in their home park across all of baseball. The Braves couldn’t wait to get out of Chavez Ravine after being swept there to start the week. Something tells us that they’ll enjoy facing the Rockies much more than they did the Dodgers. It starts with going up against Chi Chi Gonzalez. With only two wins in 16 starts, it’s not been a good 2021 for the Colorado hurler. His ERA is 6.15. Gonzalez wasn’t even supposed to pitch today. Scheduled starter Jon Gray had to go on the injured list because of right forearm tightness. This comes after yesterday’s starter Kyle Freeland left in the second inning with his own injury. Gonzalez had fallen out of the rotation, making only one start in August. He allowed three runs in three innings. He’s also allowed at least one home run in 10 consecutive starts going back to May. The good news for Colorado is that they scored nine runs in a come from behind win over Texas on Wednesday afternoon. They go against Touki Toussaint. Toussaint had a good August, but has never pitched at Coors Field before. Seven of his previous nine starts had gone Over before the last one stayed Under. All three games vs. the Dodgers went Under. But it’s a much different opponent for the Braves this weekend. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-01-21 | Brewers +1.5 v. Giants | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIL +1.5 The Brewers have come in and taken the first two games against the Giants. That’s impressive. San Francisco has the best overall record in the majors as well as the highest win percentage at home. But nobody has more road victories in 2021 than the Brewers, who are 45-23 away from American Family Field. Only two other teams, the Giants being one of them, have 40 road wins this season. We’re not sure if the Brewers will finish the sweep here tonight, but we do like them getting 1.5 via the run line. Milwaukee went off as the favorite for each of the last two days. It says a lot that oddsmakers would favor them in San Francisco. Having Burnes and Woodruff start was a big reason for that. Tonight’s starter is Brett Anderson. The team has lost the previous four times he’s started. So we understand why the line has “flipped” the Giants' way. However, Milwaukee has simply been playing better of late. They have won 7 of 10 whereas the Giants have lost 4 of 5. Kevin Gausman hasn’t lost since July 30th for the Giants but has allowed a total of 10 runs his last three starts. Milwaukee led last night’s game 6-0 as SF was held to two hits for the first five innings. The Brewers’ lineup is back to full strength with Willy Adames back and Christian Yelich on a 10-game hit streak. Five of the Giants' last seven wins have been by one run. Our view is that Anderson pitches better than expected and the Brewers’ lineup continues to swing the bat well. Play on MILWAUKEE +1.5 AAA |
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09-01-21 | Rockies -126 v. Rangers | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO It takes a lot to want to play Colorado on the road, especially after two straight losses. There are nine teams with 40 or more home wins. Four reside in the National League West and the Rockies (43-22) are one of them. But they are just 17-50 outside of Coors after taking a 4-3 loss last night in Arlington. But this is the Rangers that they are still facing. At 47-85, Texas is having an even worse season than Colorado. That record is third worst overall. They are still a MLB-worst 12-30 since the All Star Break even though they’ve won three straight. The last time the Rangers won three in a row was July 31st-August 2nd. They have not won four in a row, or swept an opponent, since late June. It is difficult to see the home team prevailing today with Kohei Arihara starting. Making his first start since May, Arihara has a 6.59 ERA and 1.53 WHIP this season. His last three starts saw him give up 16 runs in 8.3 innings. Granted, that was a long time ago. But there’s no reason to expect a good performance here. Coming off shoulder surgery, Arihara will throw only 40-45 pitches before giving way to a bullpen that isn’t very good. The Rockies tend to struggle to score runs on the road, which is why the record is so bad, but they do have a DH at their disposal here. They also have Kyle Freeland and they are 5-0 in his previous five starts. Freeland also posted a 2.40 ERA in July. Over his last three starts, he’s beaten the Dodgers and Giants. So it stands to reason he should beat the Rangers. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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08-31-21 | Braves v. Dodgers -170 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD Over the past week, Atlanta has cooled off. Playing the Yankees, Giants and Dodgers will do that to you. After winning nine in a row from 8/13 to 8/22, the Braves have dropped four of their last six. They lost 5-3 last night. It is unlikely that they will turn things around tonight at Dodgers Stadium. Walker Buehler is pitching for the home side and he’s 13-2 in 26 starts. His ERA and WHIP are down to 2.02 and 0.92. LA has won the last four times he’s started and he has a 1.13 ERA the last seven starts. We’re not in the habit of betting against one of the best teams in baseball when their top pitcher is going. Charlie Morton is having a fine year for Atlanta but did allow four runs last week in a home loss to the Yankees. He gave up two home runs. Going back to Buehler, he dominated the Braves in last year’s National League Championship Series. He held them to one run in 11 innings. He’s also beaten them both times he’s faced them in the regular season. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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08-30-21 | Brewers -136 v. Giants | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MILWAUKEE There aren’t many pitchers in the game hotter than Corbin Burnes is right now. The Brewers right-hander has not dropped a decision since May 25th. The team has won his last seven starts with Burnes putting up a 2.18 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He’s allowed one run or less in five of the seven starts. Tonight’s start will have a decided “postseason feel” as Burnes will face the Giants, the team with the best record in baseball. But Burnes has proven he can handle the Giants. It was earlier this month that he held them to one run and four hits over seven innings. Milwaukee ended up winning 2-1. They won Sunday in Minnesota 6-2. That put a stop to their longest losing streak (three games) since the All Star Break. No team has more road victories than the Brewers’ 43 this season. So they won’t be fazed heading to Oracle Park. They’ve got their best pitcher on the mound for tonight’s opener. The Giants just got through a 10-day road trip and it ended with a 9-0 loss to Atlanta on Sunday. They hit just .209 on that trip. Johnny Cueto is not going to be able to outduel Burnes tonight. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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08-30-21 | Padres v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Arizona’s Tyler Gilbert made his first career start 16 days ago. It was a performance he’ll never forget. Gilbert was the first left-handed pitcher since 1953 to throw a no-hitter in his debut. Now he will once again face the same team he threw that no-hitter against. San Diego is in a free-fall right now and hasn’t been the same since being no-hit by Gilbert. The Padres’ record over the past 16 games is 3-13. They have been held to three runs or fewer in 10 of those 16 contests. They last played on Saturday and lost 10-2 to the Angels. We don’t think they’ll give up that many runs again tonight. The number of runs San Diego allowed on Saturday was their most in a game since an August 12th loss to Arizona. Chris Paddack is set to make his return after missing a month due to injury. Arizona is an ideal opponent for him to return against. Paddack has a 3.38 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Diamondbacks. Arizona was shut out on Saturday, then scored just four runs on Sunday. They lost both games. We can’t possibly get behind the Diamondbacks, a team with a 44-88 record on the year. But we don’t want to back the slumping Padres either. We are confident that the opener of this series will belong to the pitchers though. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-29-21 | Reds -174 v. Marlins | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -174 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI Yesterday marked a first in the 2021 MLB season as the Reds fell to the Marlins. Cincy had previously been 5-0 vs. Miami this year and was 11-1 against them since the start of 2019. We had the Reds when they won 6-0 here on Friday. We think they’ll bounce back today. Today’s starting pitching matchup looks to be in their favor. Tyler Mahle has been just tremendous when he starts on the road for the Reds. He is 7-1 with a 1.92 ERA. A five-run first inning by the Marlins is what doomed the Reds on Saturday. With Mahle starting this afternoon, that’s not going to happen again. But Jesus Luzardo has had his problems for Miami and he’s the starter more likely to struggle today. In his last three starts, Luzardo has a 9.94 ERA. It’s been that kind of year for the lefty. He has a 7.51 ERA overall and 6.69 ERA at home. Yesterday was only the third win for the Marlins in their past 12 games. The Reds are holding on to the NL’s second Wild Card right now and thus can’t afford another loss to a last place opponent. They are 30-12 L42 games as a favorite. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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08-29-21 | Cardinals -168 v. Pirates | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -168 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on STL St. Louis was a 13-0 winner last night as they try to stay relevant in the playoff race. They’ve had little difficulty winning here in Pittsburgh all season. Last night brought them to 8-1 at PNC Park in 2021. That’s really not shocking. The Pirates have baseball’s fourth worst overall record and the second worst run differential. They’ve scored the fewest runs in the majors. Last night was all about Adam Wainwright as he extended his own personal scoreless streak against the Pirates to 26 innings. He is unbeaten his last 17 starts against them, which includes a 4-0 record and 0.30 ERA this season. The Pirates could only manage five hits Saturday. Wil Crowe, who will be the Pirates starter Sunday, is having a much different August compared to Wainwright. Crowe is winless with a 5.71 ERA in his past four starts. He has lost two of his three starts against the Cardinals this year. Kwang-Hyun Kim, a lefty, will hope to pick up where Wainwright left off. There was a three-start stretch last month where Kim did not allow any runs. Though his ERA is up over his last three starts, the WHIP is fine and he’s clearly better than Crowe. We don’t see the Cardinals coming anywhere close to making the playoffs, but they are 8-1 as road favorites of -125 to -175 and seem to have no problem beating the Pirates. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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08-28-21 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Houston and Texas have played one another 13 times in 2021. The one win by the road team was last night with Houston coming out on top 5-4. It wasn’t looking good early as the Astros trailed 4-0 going into the seventh. But then they erupted for five runs as six consecutive batters reached base. While we acknowledge Houston had just two hits before that, this is the highest scoring team in the game. They put up 5.5 runs/game on the road and have averaged 6.6 their last seven games. They should get to Rangers starter Kolby Allard Saturday night. Allard has been better this month, but still has a 5.29 ERA and his last three starts have all gone Over. The last time he saw Houston, it was ugly as he gave up seven runs. Texas is playing hard, scoring at least four runs in six of the last eight ball games. If they can do that again, then this game should easily eclipse the total. Framber Valdez has been pretty inconsistent for Houston this year. So while he dominated the Rangers last month, it could be a much different story on the road. The Astros are 7-2-2 Over their last 11 games at Texas. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-28-21 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -121 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TOR -1.5 Toronto suffered a crushing one-run defeat at the hands of Detroit Friday night. The 2-1 final was decided by an inside the park HR from Tigers’ pinch-hitter Victor Reyes in home half of the eighth. That it was the first time in the expansion era that a pinch hitter won the game with an inside the park home run is of little matter to the Blue Jays. They now face a 6.5 game deficit in the Wild Card race and are 1-3 vs. the Tigers this month. They’ve got to turn things around and we like their chances Saturday against Jose Urena. Urena has not pitched in over a month due to a groin injury. When he was pitching, he wasn’t very effective. In 17 starts, he has a 6.19 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. He’s 2-8 and winless at home. Urena has pitched worse at Comerica Park than he has on the road, so this really is a golden opportunity for Toronto’s hitters to get back on track. The Tigers will also use Tyler Alexander, but the key is jumping on Urena early. We think Alex Manoah will do his job for Toronto. He’s had his fair share of quality starts recently. He held the White Sox to a run in six innings on Monday. That was the seventh time in eight starts he allowed two runs or less. The Blue Jays are a better ballclub and shouldn’t lose two days in a row. They will win here by multiple runs. Play on TORONTO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-27-21 | Reds -139 v. Marlins | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CINCINNATI Cincinnati knows how to beat Miami. They’ve come out ahead 10 of the last 11 times they’ve faced the Marlins. The teams had not faced each other in 2021 prior to last weekend when the Reds won all four home games. To be fair, lots of teams beat up on the last place Marlins. The Fish were on an eight-game slide entering Wednesday. They’ve since beaten Washington two times, 4-3 and 7-5. But we don’t expect them to solve the Big Red Machine Friday night. The Reds won in Milwaukee Thursday afternoon 5-1. So with San Diego losing, they have a two-game lead for the second Wild Card. Sonny Gray pitched a strong game yesterday. We expect Wade Miley to do the same thing tonight. Miley has a 15-8 team start record and has won his last six decisions. He leads the entire team in WAR. In six career starts against Miami, Miley has a 1.86 ERA. He’s simply a better pitcher than Miami’s Zach Thompson, who has seen his ERA steadily rise all year. It’s now up to 3.12. Thompson’s team start record in his last eight starts is 1-7. The Marlins likely won’t have CF Brinson for tonight’s opener after he sprained his thumb last night. It doesn’t look good when you are 14-25 vs. left-handed starters and facing Miley, who not only just beat them last week but has also given up only seven runs in his last four starts. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |