These are two of the worst bowl teams, but neither New Mexico State nor Bowling Green will be lacking motivation. This is only the second bowl for NMSU since 1960 and they scrambled to get a 12th regular season game (crushed a FCS team) to get eligible for this game. Bowling Green will be making its first bowl appearance since 2015.

BG should have the edge in crowd support, given that we’re talking about only a 90 min drive from campus up to Detroit. I’d imagine the trip from Las Cruces, the day after Christmas, isn’t going to be a popular one for Aggies’ fans.

Both of these offenses are bad. New Mexico State posted three big point totals down the stretch, but two were against FCS teams. They are averaging only 17.7 points/game away from home this year. As for Bowling Green, they cannot run the ball effectively and scored 17 or points or less in 7 of their 12 games. 

The Falcons do have a pretty good defense though and actually rank in the top 10 nationally in sacks! 

BG’s offense ranked only 108th nationally in yards per play. The New Mexico State defense is top 20. I am looking for a low-scoring bowl game on Monday afternoon. Play the Under. 10* 

The Canucks are off a come-from-behind shoot-out victory last night, and now travel to Edmonton to meet the Oilers today. It appears that 2nd stringer Spencer Martin will be back in the net with no viable option as a replacement.  The Canucks will be a tired team, no doubt looking ahead to the break.  The Oilers are just 1-4 lately with five straight games going over the total.  Their top two stars usually excel vs the Canucks.  The Canucks' defense and penalty kill are among the league's worst, but they can put the puck in the net.  The Oilers are no great shakes on defense either, but do sport the 3rd best offense and the league's top power play.  
Vancouver has been very good on the road recently, but offense and goal tending will let them down tonight.  Vancouver has lost five straight against the Oilers.  Take this game to go over the total.

It’s Houston vs. Louisiana in the Independence Bowl. Houston (8-4) comes in as a touchdown favorite against a 6-6 Louisiana team. Really, you could argue that both of these teams had disappointing seasons. 

Louisiana was 13-1 last season but lost a bunch of talent and their coach (Billy Napier to Florida). I’m not really surprised that the Ragin Cajuns fell off a bit this year. The offense really didn’t dip all that much (31.1 to 27.0 points/game) but be aware that they’ll come in with a backup QB for this game. 

Houston really didn’t have a problem scoring points, but their defense was bad. As a result, the Cougars are 9-2-1 to the Over this season, which is the highest Over percentage in the FBS. That includes a 4-0 record in non-conference games. 

That said, this number is too high. The top Louisiana receiver opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Houston coach Dana Holgorsen is never good in bowls, so I’m not expecting a great effort from the other side either. The Under is 4-0 in Houston’s last four neutral site games. 

Facing Houston’s pass-happy offense won’t intimidate Louisiana, who has one of the best secondaries from the Group of Five (15 interceptions). I would not be surprised if QB Tune and WR Dell don’t play the full game for UH. The number has moved down and I agree with that. 10*

Second night of a back to back for Utah, who got blown out Monday in Cleveland 122-99 as a seven-point dog. It was the second straight 20+ point loss for the Jazz, who may have finally “hit their wall.” This was a team not expected to contend in 2022-23 but has played .500 ball through 33 games. That sounds nice, but you have to consider they’ve now dropped 10 of their last 15.

Of course, the Pistons are pretty much “as bad as advertised.” They have the worst record in the league coming into tonight at 8-24. They’ve dropped five of six, the only win coming against 8-23 Charlotte. So I’ve got zero interest in backing the home team in this one either. 

So let’s now look at the total. Utah hasn’t scored 100 in back to back games, but they also just faced two of the best defensive teams in the league. Detroit is second worst in defensive efficiency. 

The Over is 10-4 in Pistons’ home games due in large part to the fact they give up nearly 119 points/game here. They’ve also allowed 122 or more to four straight opponents.

Utah has allowed 122 or more in each of its last three games, so expect plenty of scoring tonight in this one. Go Over. 10*

The high-scoring Sabres are on the road against the Golden Knights on Monday.  The Sabres have won three straight and are above .500 on the road. Vegas is 1-3 in recent home games, and their young goalie Thompson has also tended to struggle more at home.  Vegas has a lengthy injury list with some key players out.  The Sabres have the top offense in the league but defense is often not a priority, allowing 3.5 goals a game.  The Knights are a solid defensive team, but their 24th ranked PK will be up against the Sabres second ranked Power Play. Vegas is also not immune to some high totals, allowing 5 against the Islanders and the Jets in recent games.
The potential is there for a high scoring game.  Take the Sabres and Golden Knights to go over the total.

The Eagles are best in so many categories, points for, TDs scored, and most pass defense categories to name a few, that it is easier to talk about their faults which mostly relate to their run defense.  Rush yards-against is just 18th rated, yards per carry is 24th, and they are poor vs rushing QBs.  They have also allowed high marks to passers in two of their last three games.
The Bears' offense is best in the league in rushing yards and yards per carry.  They run the most often in the league, and have Fields, who is not the best option as a passer, but has the best QB wheels in the game.  That said, the Bears have been throwing the ball more lately, whether out of choice or necessity.  On defense it is a different story.  The Bears are poor vs the run, while somewhat better against the pass.  They don't blitz or pressure passers much, but have handled rushing QBs like Hurts well.  The Bears have not been able to control the game the way the Commanders did against the Eagles, but they have managed to put up points against everyone else they've played recently other than the Jets.
The Eagles are averaging 41 points over their last three games, but do give up points, 20 on average.  Fields and the Bears rush success will keep this game from being a blow-out, But I'm betting Philly will continue to rack up the points.  Take Sunday's game to go over.

It is Messi vs possibly his heir apparent in Mbape facing each other in the World Cup final.  France scored a pair against a tough Maroc side, but the Atlas Lions, much less of an offensive powerhouse than Argentina,  had their chances.  Argentina ran up 3 goals against Craotia.  Both teams have superlative offenses and real star power, but have conceded goals in the tournament.  France has scored 13 and allowed 5, with Argentina conceding 5 and scoring 12.

One has the feeling that Messi will be all-out in likely his last chance for a world cup victory, with France just as determined to repeat as champions.  This will be another very close offense driven game.  It is very likely that we sill see goals from both sides, possibly multiples.  Frances was victorious in the 2018 World Cup match, winning 4-3.  It is not unlikely that we will see something similar on Sunday.

Take Argentina and France to go over.

The Dolphins face the Bills on a cold day in Buffalo. Better than a cold day in the usual place, though possibly not for the warm weather Dolphins. Miami beat the Bills in their first meeting in September, but have struggled lately with two straight losses. Tua and the Dolphins” pass offense have been much less effective as defenses adjust their coverage to Miami’s pass attack. The Dolphins don’t run much or score much on the ground, a disadvantage considering the snow and cold temperatures this Saturday. On defense, the Dolphins are tough against the run, 7th and improving in rush yards allowed, while giving up just 3.4 yards per carry. They are less successful when it is QBs running. They also get their licks in against passers, with 33 sacks, but do struggle in pass yards allowed (350 yards last week!)

The Bills defend very well on the ground, but are less successful against good passing teams like the Vikings and Dolphins. On offense, they are a better team than Miami on the ground, but have seen their passing yards and points drop somewhat of late. Allen has been sacked steadily, but it doesn’t seem to affect him particularly. On defense the Bills have limited teams to 15 points L3, and have been tough in the Red Zone, in takeaways, and on passer pressure . They’ve been very solid vs the run and have limited passers to a rating of 81 for the season.

Conditions suggest more of a running game on Saturday which favors the Bills. I think Buffalo stands a very good chance of shutting down Miami’s pass-first offense this week, but the best bet will be on the total. Take the Dolphins and Bills to go under.

France and Morocco meet in an absolutely pan-global classic underdog/favorite matchup. France's defense has not been their forte ,and has given up a goal in every match so far in the World Cup.  They haven't looked particularly focused on the back end, and have given up too many free kicks on careless play.  Morocco has yet to yield a goal in the tournament, other than an own-goal vs Canada, although Portugal should have scored, with far too many shots off the target.  Morocco has has proven to be composed, unified and quite unflappable when defending to date and has a very strong net-minder in Bounou.  The Atlas Lions have also been potent on the counterattack and have shown excellent finish to date.  That said, France is formidable on offense with 11 goals in the tournament to date, and at least a trio of elite potential goalscorers in Mbappe, Griezmann and Giroux.

I 'm betting on both teams connecting for goals; France with likely more than 1.  Morocco might be content to play for a draw and penalty shots, but France, after Bono's heroics in net, will not want to leave this game to chance.

Morocco, the underdog, will be under tremendous pressure,with home country, and the Pan-Arab and african worlds passionately behind them.  They have been poised to date, but this level of playl is all new to them.  France, winner of the last world Cup, has pressure of their own but is on familiar ground.  I am on the total on Wednesday. I am not sure of a winner, but the total will go over.

The Celtics have dropped two straight and are now at the end of a six-game road trip. I made the mistake of backing this team last night when they lost to the Clippers 113-93. After winning 17 out of 19 games, Boston has now been outscored by 36 in the losses to LA and Golden State.

All five games so far on this road trip have stayed Under. The Under is now 11-3 in Celtics’ road games this season. There are even more trends that support an Under play tonight against the Lakers. When the total is 230 or higher (as it is for this game) for a Celtics game this season, the Under is 8-1. That includes a perfect 7 for 7 on the road.

The Lakers had been one of the league’s better defensive teams at the start of the season, but have since fallen to the middle of the pack. They are 6-1 to the Over in their last seven games, but almost all of those were played on the road. 

I know Boston’s offense has been historically great to start the year. But at the end of a long road trip, it could be “tired legs” time. Especially on the second night of a back to back, a situation where they’ve admittedly thrived, but none of the previous instances were like this at the end of a long trip. Earlier in the trip, in a back to back, they went Under vs. Toronto.

As expected, money seems to be on the Over for this nationally televised matchup. But I think there’s some real value in taking the Under, given not only Boston’s situation but the fact the Lakers just returned home from their own long road trip. 10*

The Buccaneers face the 49ers at home after a come-from-behind victory vs the Saints last week.  Let's not forget that the Bucs did nothing on offense for most of the game, ending with one less than the usual average 18 points on offense.  The 49ers defense is a different beast than the Saints'.  They are first overall, stifling against the run if Tampa attempts it, and a healthy eighth against the pass.  The 49ers have held passers including Tua to a 69 passer rating in their last three weeks. The 49ers are also physically tough on passers, and had 4 sacks and 4 takeaways last week.
I expect a cautious approach from Purdy and the 49ers offense on Sunday, possibly running the ball more than they have lately.  The Bucs' defense is just behind the 49ers in points given up, and 4th in sacks. As much attention as the QBs have received this week, Sunday's game is much more likely a battle between a pair of top defenses.  Take the total to go under.

The Oilers are 5-2 L7, but are averaging just over .500 at home this year.  They lost to the Wild in Minnesota a week ago, so will be looking for pay-back in tonight's game.  The Oilers struggle historically vs the Wild.  Edmonton has their big guns, plus Nugent-Hopkins, but secondary scoring is an issue, along with defense (22nd rated) and PK (28th rated).  Campbell likely starts in net tonight for the Oilers.  He is struggling, with a 4.12 goals against avg. and .872 save %, and it appears the #1 goalie torch has been passed to Skinner.

The Wild also have an underachieving goalie in Fleurie, who has allowed more than 4 goals a game in his last starts and has a save % of under .900 this year.  The 6-2 Wild have been overachieving on offense lately, averaging over 4 goals a game while allowing at least 3 goals against in their last 6 games.  They have gone over the total in 7 straight.  We have also seen "over-achievement" with the Oilers.  Neither team could be called  defensively fixated.  Expect a free-wheeling affair tonight and take the over.

The Canucks were down 0-4 and rallied to win 7-6 in OT in their last game.  They are a frustrating team but can put the puck in the net both on five on five and on the PP. It is keeping the puck out of the net that is their problem with a 30th ranked defense and now an injury to their #1 goaltender Demko.  Back-up net-minder Martin did not inspire confidence on Sunday; he was pulled after allowing 4 goals on 8 shots.

They are on the road against a 2-8 Sharks team, who are also a dismal 2-8 at home this year.  The Sharks are weak on offense, scoring under 3 goals a game but will get their opportunities against the Canucks' defense.  The Sharks have given up 11 goals in their last two games, and will likely have Kakhonen and his uninspiring .882 save % in net.  The Canucks had his number in their 4-3 victory in November.  
Look for the Sharks and Canucks, two of the poorest defending teams in the league, to go over the total on Wednesday.

Brooklyn has gone Under in five straight games, but in each instance the number was higher than it is here. I like this game vs. Charlotte to go Over the total.

Since Steve Nash was fired, the Nets’ defense has improved tremendously as they are fourth in efficiency. But one thing they still don’t do well is rebound the basketball. They are dead last in the league in defensive rebounding rate at 68.8%.

Charlotte is seventh in offensive rebounding rate, so I see them getting plenty of second-chance opportunities in this matchup. 

You also have to think Brooklyn is going to shoot the ball a lot better here than it did vs. an elite Boston team on Sunday. The Celtics held the Nets to a field goal percentage of 40.5. They had previously topped 50% in eight of nine games. 

The Hornets have scored 117 in two of their last three games. But they too had issues giving up offensive rebounds in a loss to the Clippers on Monday. LA grabbed 13 offensive boards, leading to 25 second-chance points. They finished with 119 points overall, winning the game in the final minute. 10*

Michigan State has lost two in a row, both as favorites, and failed to cover three straight. They are just 1-5 ATS L6 games. They’ve played a ton of close games so far with four decided by four points or less and that does not even include a double overtime win against Kentucky.

Speaking of double overtime games, Penn State just lost one of those, 101-94 at Clemson last week as part of the Big 10-ACC Challenge. They’ve been off ever since, so that’s a bit of an edge in the Nittany Lions favor as MSU has played two times since that Penn State-Clemson loss took place.

I don’t really want to fade Sparty off back to back losses though, so let’s look at the total. The number has been bet up, which makes sense when you consider the final score of that Penn State-Clemson game and the fact MSU has gone Over in six of its last seven. But Penn State had gone Under in five straight prior to losing to Clemson.

Michigan State has put up just 115 points in the last two games combined and is still without Malik Hall. Their biggest concern here is defending the three-point line as PSU is shooting 40.4% from deep, including 46.2% at home. The thing is, I can’t see those numbers continuing, regardless of how well the Spartans defend in this game.

Both teams are playing slow this year, ranking 284 and 299 in pace respectively. I see value on the Under. 8*

The Buccaneers are at home and facing the Saints, a team that has dominated Brady since his arrival in Tampa. It is a critical game, but neither team seems to be playing with much success lately. The Bucs have averaged just 18 points a game all season, a far cry from their heyday. The Saints offense managed a goose egg last week, but did hold a tough 49’ers offense to just 13 points. Both defenses have limited the opposition to just 17 points in their last three games.

Tampa, at 32nd in most rush categories, will do anything other than run the ball, despite the success they had against the Seahawks. The Saints will run but appear to be spinning their wheels for the last 3 weeks, managing just 3 yards a carry, 60 yards a game, and no points at all from the run. New Orleans’ pass attack under Dalton has been consistently very average, with nothing standing out other than too many picks, sacks and fumbles.

Brady has been accurate, well protected until last week, but playing small ball all season, with the 26th (and sinking) ranked yards per completion figures in the league. With Wirfs out and the usual Saints strategy for Brady of “go straight at him”, he may just sully his uniform this week.

The Buccaneers beat the Saints earlier in the season in New Orleans, but the Saints have owned the Bucs in the regular season when facing them on the road. I think the safest outcome this week is in the total. Look for both defenses to star against a pair of struggling offenses, and wager on the under.

Japan faces a very experienced Croatian side, who other than a dominant come-from -behind 4-1 drubbing of Canada, have been rather stolid so far, with a pair of nil-nil draws.  In spite of their loss to Costa Rica, Japan has impressed with a full throttle 4 goal qualifying round including victories over Spain and Germany.  The Samurii Blue are not timid, and have counterattacked and finished against two top teams.  I like their chances to score again on Monday, forcing Croatia into opening up on offense.  Japan is inexperienced, young, but very fast and will not be cowed, and will take it to the older Croatian side.  Look for the total to go over 2, with both sides scoring.  Third goal will decide it.

Oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring game between Oregon and UCLA on Sunday, but I say “not so fast.” Yes, the Ducks are 16-5 Over L21 road games and 30-14 Over L44 conference games. And, yes, the Bruins have gone Over in five straight. But I believe this number to be too high. 

Oregon’s highest scoring game of the year was a 74-70 loss to Michigan State. Their games are averaging 133.1 points/game so far, which is well below this total.

Now UCLA averages 82.6 points/game. But they are also only giving up 57.6 points/game at home. 

Oregon is the tallest team in the country and I expect that size to give UCLA problems at the offensive end. 

The Ducks are also playing pretty slow this season (237th in adjusted tempo) while UCLA is also outside the top 100 in that regard. Can’t imagine the Bruins will shoot as well here as they did in the last game vs. Stanford where they made their first eight shot attempts and ended up hitting almost 60% from the floor. Play the Under. 10*

I’m going to call for a lot of points here as Pittsburgh and NC State open up the ACC portion of their schedules.  Take the Over.

Pitt has won four in a row - by an average of 21.5 points/game. Now beating Alabama State, Fairleigh Dickinson and William & Mary isn’t going to cause anyone to go running through the streets. But the Panthers did just hang 87 points on a Northwestern team that had previously been playing good defense. The total for that game was 128.5. That should tell you all you need to know about how Pitt performed offensively in that one.

North Carolina State is allowing opponents to hit 34.3% from three-point range. That is likely to be a problem for them against a Pitt team that is not only attempting 26 threes per game. Over the last five games, Pitt is shooting 38% from deep.

But where Pitt could run into some trouble here is turnovers. They are turning the ball over on 20.4% of their possessions. NC State turns teams over on 22.3% of possessions. 

The Wolfpack are top 35 in the country in both offensive efficiency and tempo. So they can score. Six of their games this season have gone Over. Pitt is 5-2 Over last 7. 10* 

The Bills face the Patriots at home in a much anticipated meeting. The Patriots haven’t face many top offenses this year, so the Vikings’ high point total didn’t really surprise. As good as their offense has been, NE can struggle against elite and especially rushing QBs. While Allen is playing hurt, there is nothing wrong with his legs, and he has a terrific track record against NE. The Patriots had very little success in managing Jefferson last week. Can they do any better against “Allen to Diggs?”

The injury-depleted Bills aren’t playing up to their early season standard in the last month, but it hasn’t been the offense that has taken the biggest hit. Buffalo has averaged 29 points on offense over the last three games, almost the same as their season’s average. They are running the ball more and had solid success in the red zone last week. Where the Bills have struggled in the last 4 weeks is on defense. They have seen their points-allowed climb to 27 over the last three games, up 8 from their season average. The Patriots, who are not the strongest offense managed to put up 26 points and over 400 yards on offense against the Vikings last week. The Bills have had reinforcements on the injury front, but now have Von Miller MIA, a huge hit. Jones had his best game of the season last week, with 3 TDs, no picks and a 116 passer rating. The Bills have allowed 293 passing yards in the last 3 games, and a 93 passer rating. While the Patriots are just 2 games away from a miserable 10 point result on offense, I think there is potential for them to put up some points this week again. The total is Thursday night’s best bet. Wager on the over.

The Sabres, winner of just 2 of 10 games, face a streaky Red Wings team in Detroit on Wednesday.  The Sabres are below .500 on the road this season, but it isn't their offense that should be faulted for their lack of wins.  They've had solid and balanced scoring this year, with the fourth ranked offense and a 7th place PP.  They have, however, been quite shaky on defense, with the third worst defense and PK.  Not surprisingly, we have seen 4 of 5 games go over the total, including a 11 goal total on Monday.
The Red Wings are just slightly above average in all categories, although they have managed a bit more offense (4+ goals per game) of late.  They've been running with Husso in net, and for good reason, but it is Nedeljkovic who starts on Wednesday. He hasn't played much this season, and has allowed 4 goals a game with a save % of .880 in his starts. Detroit has been consistently good (7-3) at home this season, and have the personnel to make an impression this year.  With the Red Wings' weaker net-minder in, and the Sabres' firepower and leaky D, the best bet is the total.  Look for another high scoring game and wager on the over.

Still no Chris Paul for Phoenix. He’ll miss his 10th straight game as the Suns host the Kings Monday night in what shapes up as a pretty important Pacific Division matchup. Sacramento has been hot. They’ve won six straight home games.

Now the Kings do return to Golden 1 Center off back to back road losses. They averaged just 105 points/game in falling at Atlanta and Boston.

Given how much they’ve been scoring at home this year (123.9 points/game), one might be inclined to bet the Kings Over here. However, I see some regression coming their way. Their last three games, admittedly all on the road, all stayed Under. 

Phoenix has gone Under in four straight. They’ve allowed an average of 103.5 points in those four games. The Suns usually do a good job at defending the three-point line and that’s huge against a Kings team that will take a high volume of outside shots.

No Cameron Johnson either for the Suns. The Kings are 5-1 Under so far when facing a team that has a winning record. 10*

There are only 20 teams still unbeaten in College Basketball. Seattle U is one of them! The RedHawks are 5-0 straight up and have covered the spread in all three lined games. Their last game was an 89-53 beatdown of Pacific Lutheran. Seattle has won twice out on the road, against UC San Diego and Portland.

But Washington is obviously the best team Seattle has faced yet. The Huskies are 5-1, their only loss coming to Cal Baptist. Without a shadow of a doubt, the team’s most impressive performance to date came last Thursday when they stunned St. Mary’s 68-64 as 10 point underdogs.

It is telling though that UW is only a small favorite at home. They are not a great offensive team (153rd in efficiency per KenPom) and largely rely on a defense that plays a 2-3 zone, forcing the opposition into long possessions. Teams are shooting just 39.1% against the Huskies, 25.9% from three, and averaging 63.3 points/game.

Seattle has never beaten Washington in 14 previous tries. They were close last year, losing by only eight. This is a game the RedHawks badly want to win. With such importance placed on this one, I expect a lower-scoring game with fewer possessions than normal. 

The last two times these teams have played, there were only 120 and 114 points scored. Those games stayed Under by 22 and 21 points respectively. There’s value with this number now north of 140 points. 10*

Both Notre Dame and USC have gone Over the total in their last five games. But I will be bucking that trend here with my biggest CFB total of the season.

Notre Dame has something that USC hasn’t seen much of this season, that being a good defense. The Fighting Irish are top 30 in scoring, holding opponents to only 20.3 points/contests. Also, no opponent has been able to reach 400 total yards against them. Not even Ohio State. Unlike UCLA, ND has an elite secondary. 

Notre Dame’s offense will also be able to control the football, thanks to the rushing attack. USC is very bad at stopping the run. One of the easiest ways to slow down the Trojans’ offense is to simply keep them off the field. I think the Fighting Irish will be able to do just that.

USC hasn’t beaten Notre Dame since 2016. In the last four meetings, they have been held to 16, 27, 17 and 14 points. As for the USC defense, Notre Dame does not have the kind of passing attack most teams in the Pac 12 do. The Trojans also excel at taking the ball away (#1 in FBS). 

Only two ND opponents have been able to score more than 26 points all season.  The previous high O/U line this season for them was 58.5 vs. Ohio State. That game easily stayed Under. This is only the fifth ND game all year with a total higher than 48.5.  Play the Under. 10*

The Dutch took their time about it, but persevered to beat Senegal 2-0. Ecuador produced a similar result against an easier team in Quatar.  Equador could be a bit of a sleeper  in the group.  They were 4th in South America and drew 1-1 against both Argentina and Brazil in the qualifying round. Equador has some fine young talent on the team, but got a pair of goals from 33 year old Valencia in Game One.The young Van Gaal coached Netherlands team, while inexperienced is rich in talent.  Their top scoring threat, Memphis Depay played just 30 minutes but is expected to get more playing time in Game 2.

By rights, Equator ought to be an easier match-up than Senegal, but those draws against top South American squads, and the number of goals that they scored in qualifying games should make the Dutch take note.  I expect at least 1 goal at least from each squad, as both have significant offenses and neither the Dutch nor the Equadorians are gifted in goal keepers.  Take the over, in this case, over 2.25.

Let’s go with the Under in the Egg Bowl. The number has come down, but I’m still seeing value north of 60 points. Eight of the last nine Egg Bowls, including the last five, have all stayed Under.

Those last five editions of this rivalry have all seen fewer than 60 combined points scored.

There’s disarray in Oxford right now with Lane Kiffin’s future seemingly in doubt. Maybe he stays? Maybe he goes? Regardless, Ole Miss is 1-3 its last four games and through three quarters last week had just six points on the board.

This Mississippi State offense can also run hot and cold. On the road, it’s been mostly the latter as they average just 19.5 points and all four games have gone Under.

In a rivalry like this, there won’t be a ton of points scored. 10*

No 0-0 draws in this match! Both Germany and Japan went home with major disappointment after the last World Cup.  It is more accurate to say that the Germans, normally a world power, were humiliated, resulting in  a sea change in team makeup.  Both Germany and Japan have young and potent squads this year, and both play an all-out attacking game. 

Japan is an underdog, but is  a very well coached, organized, and driven squad.  They waltzed through their preliminary matches, and with many team members playing at a club level in Germany, will be familiar with and not intimidated by the German style.  The Germans also dominated their matches leading up to the Cup, but are very much offense focused, and not unknown to give up goals.  This could be a very fast paced and exciting game with, I think, a higher than average total.  Play on the over. 9*!

The 49ers are in Mexico City at a a point in the season where all systems are go.  They are healthier, have a dominant run attack, and very tough pass offense lately.  They face a Cardinals team who have grown one dimensional on offense, and with possible injuries to key players this week.  The Cardinals don't run the ball much, relying on a very short yardage pass attack.  While they beat the Rams last week, their passing game hasn't been especially successful this season, just 18th in yards, and last in yds/attempt and yds/completion. I expect the 49ers to key on the Arizona passing game, and rough up who ever plays at QB.  The SF defense is tough in all categories, and the 49ers' offense are very strong in holding on to the football with very good time of possession and third down conversion stats. The 49ers don't normally put up huge point totals, but will be very successful at limiting the Cardinals' chances today.  Take this game to go under.

This is the Gulf Coast Showcase, a tournament that takes place in Estero, FL, which is just about 10 minutes from Florida Gulf Coast’s campus. The Eagles face a Northern Kentucky team that is tricky defensively and this should lead to a pretty low-scoring game on Monday night.

Northern Kentucky likes to play a matchup zone, which is difficult to break down and often leads to long possessions and bad shots by the opponent. FGCU is already not a particularly great shooting team (37.6 FG% in three games away from home), so they’re likely to struggle offensively in this one.

Few teams in the country play slower than Northern Kentucky. The Norse are 341st (out of 363 D-I teams) in pace. Again, that’s conducive to an Under play.

NKU is coming off a 64-51 win over Cincinnati. That was a game the Norse came in as 6.5-point underdogs. They held the Bearcats to 33.9% shooting.

FGCU could only manage 50 points against Tennessee in its last game, which it lost by 31 (they were 20.5-point underdogs). I just don’t see any way both teams score more than 65 points in this one and neither should “go off” either. 10*

The Cowboys are on the road again, this time in a show-down with a red-hot Vikings team.  A pass-first team, the Vikings have a very successful rush offense considering they only run the ball a third of the time.  Add some great targets for Cousins, Jefferson being the standout, and you have a formidable offense.  The Cowboys have allowed 28 and 29 points in their last two weeks and 26 against the Eagles earlier.  They have been done in by their inability to handle the run, but their passer rating has climbed to 114/L3 games, in spite of leading the league in passer pressures.  The Vikings have a fine running back in Cook, who overachieves considering his usage.  I expect the Vikings, like the Packers, to run far more than usual on Sunday.
There are issues with the Vikings defense as well.  They struggle to defend in the red zone, and are  a miserable 29th in yards and passing yards allowed, with a whopping 486/311 yards against last week.  Prescott has much to atone for after 2 picks last week, but the Cowboys' pass offense has improved since his return.  The Cowboys are also 8th in rushing yards and improving, and may have both RBs in action this week.  The Vikings gave up 175 yards rushing last week, along with their pass defense  woes. This game is too close to pick an outright winner, but I am confident in the total. Sunday's match-up will not be a defensive gem.  Take the total to go over.

The Celtics have been winning a lot recently. Eight straight to be exact and over the course of that win streak, they’ve been scoring a ton. Six times they’ve scored 123 or more and this should be another strong offensive showing tonight in the Big Easy.

A career-best 31.1 points/game from Jayson Tatum is pacing the Celtics, who have been favored in every game this season. They are also #1 in the league in points/game at 120.4. Jaylen Brown is also averaging a career-high 25.4 points/game. 

The only negative with this Cetics team right now is that their defensive rating has slipped from 1st last season to 16th this season. Robert Williams III being injured has a large hand in that. 

New Orleans can score too. The Pelicans just put up 124 in a win over Chicago Wednesday night. They are averaging 116.7 points/game. It remains to be seen if Zion Williamson will play tonight, but even if he doesn’t, you’ve still got Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum to carry the scoring load. 

The Pelicans aren’t great defensively though as they are allowing 112.1 points/game and that’s not good facing this red-hot Boston team. Expect a high-scoring game in this one. 10* 

The 8-2 Islanders travel to Nashville to meet the Preds who have won 2 straight at home, allowing just a pair of goals total.  They only scored 4, and that has been the way of their offense this year.  They are 30th in the league in goals scored and PP performance,  while the defense has been average.  The difference in the last two game is that Saros, who has played to mixed reviews this season, has found his usual form, with a save % of over .970 in those games.
The 8-2 Islanders have their usual strong defense (5th in the league), but this year they are putting the puck in the net with a bit more frequency.  They have been good on the road, and also have a sharp goaltender at the moment. Sorokin has been terrific all season, allowing just over 2 goals a game, with a .932 save %. Nashville has been very stingy on the road, and with two top goalies involved, we could see a tight game on Thursday.  Take the under in a good old goalies' duel.

This figures to be a fast-paced, up-tempo game with a ton of scoring from both teams. St. John’s has played very fast in its first three games, all of which have gone Over. Led by some key transfers, the Red Storm are currently playing at the sixth fastest tempo in the country per KenPom.

Nebraska isn’t playing quite as fast, but the Cornhuskers are 69th in tempo. They have shot 55% from inside the three-point arc in two games, which were wins over Maine and Omaha. They averaged 77 points/game.

Tonight is a clear step up in competition for the ‘Huskers. I do worry about them defensively in this matchup. They allowed those first two opponents to shoot 37% from three-point range and I don’t see them having much of an answer for St. John’s big man Joel Soriano, especially if Derrick Walker remains out. 

St. John’s has shot almost 55 percent from the field in their first three games and 41% from three. But they too have defensive issues as more than 40% of the points they allow are coming from behind the arc. 

The Red Storm going Over the total is not new. They are 24-8 Over the last 32 times they’ve been favored. 10*

We've got the league's two worst offenses facing off today when the Blues meet the home team Black Hawks.  St. Louis's defense has been no great shakes either, but they did limit Vegas and the Avs to two goals each in their latest games.  Chicago's defense has been above average to date.  Blues net minder Binnington bounced back with a couple of fine .940+ save % games in his latest appearances.  Soderblom has opened some eyes in Chicago allowing just 2.6 goals a game.  It is no surprise that the rebuilding Black Hawks haven't been able to sustain their fine start. They have struggled to score lately with 6 straight unders to show for it.  The Blues have been a mixed bag, but  Binnington is capable of being a game changer, and the Blues seem to be more defensibly responsible in their last three games.  Take today's game to go under again.

Eastern Michigan got bowl eligible with a 34-28 win against Akron last Tuesday. So from here on out, the Eagles are simply trying to move up the bowl pecking order. They can’t win the MAC West (Toledo has already clinched). 

Meanwhile, going into last week, Kent State knew that it had to win out to get bowl eligible. Well, “step one” was accomplished as the Golden Flashes went to Bowling Green and prevailed 40-6 as 2.5-point chalk. I had the Under in that game, which cashed. Going the same route again here

The Under is 7-3 in all of Kent State’s games this season. Since Oct 1, only one has seen more than 60 combined points scored and that at Toledo. While the Flashes are not where they want to be in the standings, they do have a defense that is very good at holding opponents to field goals (top 20 in red zone efficiency). 

The Eastern Michigan defense tackles well and does not give up a ton of big plays. Since October 1st, the Eagles have allowed more than 28 points only one time and that was a strange game vs. Northern Illinois. 

Each of the previous three seasons these teams met and the Under has gone 3-0. None of the three games saw more than 60 combined points scored. 8* 

Chattanooga lost its season opener at Charleston 75-68, but that loss certainly doesn’t look so bad now after Charleston gave #1 North Carolina a game. Chattanooga also quickly bounced back with a 93-49 win over Oakland City last Thursday. 

Ole Miss is a not surprising 2-0 as they’ve defeated Alcorn State 73-58 and Florida Atlantic 80-67. The Rebels came out more aggressive in the second game and ended up shooting 50% overall and 40% from three against FAU.  

There was a defensive lapse in that FAU game as Ole Miss let a 17-point second half lead dwindle down to six. But give the Rebels’ credit for then immediately bouncing back with a 12-5 run of their own. This team is getting outstanding production from its bench so far. Rebels’ reserves have combined to score 69 points in the two games.

Ole Miss will be tested defensively here as Chattanooga likes to push pace a lot more than either Alcorn State or FAU. But the flip side of that is the Rebels should see more scoring opportunities. This is likely to be their highest scoring game yet, so that means more than 80 points from them.

Therefore, we won’t need a ton from Chattanooga to send this game Over the total. Being that the Mocs have averaged 85.5 points the first two games, they should give us more than enough. 10*

The I-75 Trophy is on the line tonight at the Glass Bowl where Toledo hosts rival Bowling Green. Toledo has already wrapped up the MAC West, so these last two games don’t mean much to them. Bowling Green still needs one more win to become bowl eligible. 

Based on the recent history of this rivalry, BG is unlikely to get its sixth win tonight. They’ve lost 11 of the last 12 meetings vs. Toledo including 49-17 last season. The one win over the Rockets came in 2019, at home, as 26.5-point underdogs. Oddsmakers aren’t giving the Falcons much of a shot tonight either with a spread of more than two touchdowns.

Bowling Green’s offense has been very poor of late. Four of the last six games have seen them held to 17 points or less. Last week was a disaster as they got blown out 40-6 at home by Kent State. I cashed the Under in that game as well. 

Toledo was a 28-21 winner last week against Ball State, another game where I cashed in. I had Ball State plus the points. The Rockets are actually 0-3 ATS L3 games and have scored just 27, 27 and 28 points. 

Assuming the Toledo offense doesn’t go “wild” tonight, this game should easily stay Under the number. The BG defense had been pretty good prior to last week. The 40 pts allowed to Kent State matched the number allowed the previous three games combined (18, 13, 9). The Falcons are also among the nation’s leaders in sacks. But the BG offense still stinks and Toledo is allowing only 15.8 PPG at home. Take the Under. 10*

Houston hosts Oral Roberts Monday night. The third-ranked Cougars have played twice thus far and as you’d expect, based on the opponents, won big both times. It was a 47-point win over Northern Colorado followed by a 26-point win over St. Joe’s. The latter was played at a neutral court (Annapolis).

In their season opener, Oral Roberts had a tough time early on with what looks like a very good St. Mary’s team. The Eagles were down big at the half before rallying late to get inside the number. Their second game was a 95-62 win over John Brown, a non-board team.

The key to handicapping this matchup is that Houston is going to try and slow ORU down. Oral Roberts would like to play fast, but that is easier said than done against this tough Cougars’ squad.

Houston has been gifting opposing teams too many free throw attempts thus far, so that’s probably going to be a point of emphasis for coach Kelvin Sampson. As long as the issue does not persist, Oral Roberts just isn’t going to score very many points here. Houston is 4th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 343th in tempo.

This is a higher total than what we saw for Oral Roberts-St. Mary’s and it should not be. Take the Under. 10*

The Giants will be running fools on Sunday at home to the Texans, partly because that is what their offense does best. The Barkley/ Jones duo leads the Giants to 4th best in the league in rushing yards.  It is also what the Texans' defense does worst. They are 32nd in rush yards allowed and 30th in yards per attempt among other unflattering stats.  The Texans will also run. Their rookie RB Pierce was  terrific in his last game a huge bounce-back from week 8, but he is a beaten up this week. The Texans pass game has struggled this season; 26th in passing yards, 27th in yards/completion and an 80 passer rating for the season.  Mills throws to may picks compared to touchdowns.  Both teams are solid in passer pressures, esp the Texans.
The Giants offense is very tough to get off the field at the best of times but should be able to move the ball successfully on the ground against the Texans.  Their defense is tough in the red zone and limits 3rd down conversions.  Both these teams struggle to put up points at the best of times.  Sunday could be a very slow march of a game.  Take the total to go under.

Wolves have scored just 8 goals in 14 Premier League matches this season. That’s not just the fewest of any EPL side, it’s downright putrid.

Now they are set to face top of the table Arsenal, who have conceded all of 11 times this season. That’s tied for the best defensive record in the league. 

Wolves have been a bit stingy themselves on the back end going back to last season and that should serve them well in this fixture. It also helps that Arsenal’s road xG is way down from what they average at Emirates Stadium.

My prediction here is that Arsenal gets 1, maybe 2 goals at most. Wolves are likely not to score at all and thus Under 2.5 is a solid play in the final match on Saturday’s EPL slate. 

The Stars, winners of 3 of 4 games, are back home and facing a struggling 3-12 Sharks team.  The offense has been clicking; Dallas averaged 6 goals-for a game in those three wins before a poor performance against a tough Jets team at the tail end of the road trip.  The Sharks have had no recent luck (0-6) against the Stars in Dallas and are just 2-4 on the road this season.  San Jose has scored over three goals a game in their last 6 appearances, an improvement over the early season.  The problem is that they have allowed well over 4 goals a game, resulting in 5 straight losses. They are on the tail end of a back-to-back tonight.  We've seen a steady diet of overs from the Sharks, and while the offense has improved, managing to keep the Sharks in games lately, the defense has not.  The Sharks face a very potent Stars offense and power play tonight.  The suggested total is about average; too low for this match up.  Jump on the over in this game.

Denver and Boston collide Friday night on NBA TV and both squads are coming off high-scoring victories Wednesday night. Denver won 122-119 in Indiana while Boston prevailed 128-112 here at home over Detroit. 

Because of those final scores, tonight’s O/U opened quite high. It’s already been bet down, but I’m still liking the Under here. 

Boston has been lighting up some bad teams of late. Chicago, New York and Detroit were three of the victims in the current four-game win streak. But when the Celtics faced Memphis on Monday, they finished the game with just 109 points. 

Denver, also on a four-game winning run, has also been running through bad teams. They’ve faced Oklahoma City, San Antonio twice and then of course Indiana.

In a more high-profile encounter, expect more defense from both teams. The Under has hit in six of the last seven meetings between these teams and the last four here in Beantown. 10*

Philadelphia comes into this game at just 5-6 on the season, but they did just hold Phoenix to 88 points in a win Monday night. I had the Under in that game and that’s the play again here as the 76ers travel to Atlanta to face the 7-4 Hawks.

Now the Hawks’ game last night was rather high scoring as they fell 125-119 to the Jazz. They came in sporting the league’s top three-point FG% defense (32.5%) but sat back and watched Utah make 17 of 39. I don’t think that will be the case again here, however. 

I say that knowing full well that the 76ers are shooting 39.2% from three this season. But remember that James Harden is now out for the next month. Even with Joel Embiid back, the team scored only 100 points Monday. They’ve been playing at a much slower pace recently as well.

The 76ers are elite defensively though, at least with Embiid on the floor. The loss of Harden certainly doesn’t hurt at that end of the floor. 

I just think this number is too high. Ten of the last 13 meetings between the teams have stayed Under including seven straight. 8*

Phoenix and Minnesota met on November 1st. That game stayed Under the total, ending up 116-107. We’ve got a slightly lower number for the rematch. But again, the Under is the way to go.

Starting with Minnesota, the last four Suns’ games have all stayed Under. I had the Under when they lost 100-88 at Philadelphia on Monday.

The Suns are playing great defense. They rank third in points allowed. They are also bottom four in pace. So they are playing slow as well. Great defense + playing slow = a solid combo to cash Unders.

Minnesota’s starting five has really struggled when on the court together. The Under is 8-3 in all Timberwolves games. 

Injuries are piling up for Phoenix: Cameron Johnson is out while Chris Paul and DeAndre Ayton are both questionable after leaving Monday’s game. Take the Under.

On Saturday Seton Hall will face St. Peters, which is where head coach Shaheen Holloway previously served. But first they’ll play Monmouth, who was also in the MAAC - until this year. 

The Hawks have moved to the Colonial for 2022-23. They make the transition to a new conference having lost all five starters from last season’s team. No transfers were brought in to soften the blow. There are some recruits. But expect a slow start to the season from Monmouth. 

Monmouth is 19-8 Under its last 27 road games.

Seton Hall is 28-12 the last 40 times it has been favored.

Seton Hall also likes to play slow, which lends itself to the Under. The Pirates were also a great defensive team last season, ranking Top 25 nationally in efficiency. 10*

Bowling Green’s win over Western Michigan was not high-scoring to say the least. The Falcons won 13-9, the latest in a string of impressive defensive performances. The last three games have seen BGSU allow just 13, 18 and 9 points.

Kent State’s offense has been disappointing this year. They are putting only 20.0 points/game on the road (where they are 0-5). Injuries continue to play a role. The Golden Flashes’ top two receivers are both banged up right now. Dante Cephas did not play against Ball State last week and Devontez Walker left due to an injury. It is unknown if either will play tonight. 

Now the Bowling Green offense isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders either. In three of their last four games, they have not topped 17 points. The game where they scored 34 on Central Michigan, the Falcons forced four turnovers and returned a fumble for a touchdown.

Only one of Kent State’s last six games has gone Over. That was against Toledo, who put up 52 points on them. Bowling Green is not Toledo.

The Under is now 11-4 in Bowling Green’s last 15 games. 10*

At 7-2, Phoenix has been one of the best teams in the league to start the season. Both losses came against Portland, but the Suns just avenged those on Saturday by beating the Blazers 102-82. 

Offensively, the Suns have been very good so far as they are averaging 115.1 points/game. But they are now missing Cam Johnson and possibly Cameron Payne (questionable for tonight) as well. The team’s scoring already dips away from home (111.5 points/game), but fortunately they are also third in the league in defense. 

Philadelphia is easier to defend right now as James Harden is out for a month and Joel Embiid is questionable for tonight with an illness. Without those two, the Sixers only managed 104 points in a loss to the Knicks on Friday.

Even if Embiid returns, the Sixers have struggled mightily on the offensive end all season. They are 23rd in the league in points/game (109.8). They haven’t shot all that poorly, but are bottom third in pace and that clearly plays a role in why they aren’t scoring all that much.

The Sixers have been exceptional at defending the three-point line here at home. The previous five visitors to the City of Brotherly Love have shot just 30.9% from three. 10*

This is Nottingham Forest’s first season back in the Premier League since 1998-99 and, not surprisingly, they have struggled. Currently in last place, Forest is the only team without double digit points and their -20 goal differential is also a league worst.

But before the 5-0 thrashing they took from Arsenal last week, Forest had been a pretty decent defensive side. They’d held four straight opponents to 1 or 0 goals including a shock clean sheet win over Liverpool. 

Now the attack is poor. You’d have to go all the way back to September to find the last time Nottingham Forest scored more than one goal in a match. They scored only two goals over the course of six October fixtures. 

Forest has been tougher at home, which is where they’ve earned seven of their nine points this season. Brentford will be without star striker Ivan Toney. It’s bad enough that the Bees have scored only one goal in their previous three matches, that coming in last week’s 1-1 draw with Wolverhampton. Over the last seven matches, they have scored a total of just four goals. 

Defensively, Brentford should be fine here. They’ve been a little unlucky when it comes to conceding on the road this year. But when they traveled to take on another promoted side, AFC Bournemouth, they allowed just seven shots and zero goals. 10*

Following a 3-0 start to the year, Boston has dropped three of four - both SU and ATS. On Friday night, they’ll get a chance to avenge that first loss of the season, which came against Chicago. 

The Bulls have won four of six and tonight go for their first three-game win streak of the season. They have beaten both Brooklyn and Charlotte to start November, the former of which was also a win for me. 

In the first game vs. the Celtics, Chicago got to the free throw line quite a bit. They ended up going 26 of 29 from the charity stripe. I do not think they’ll be as productive there tonight. 

Having held their last two opponents below 100 points, the Bulls’ defense should keep them in this one. I expect a much lower scoring game than what we saw from these two teams on 10/24 - when they combined for 222 points.

That makes the Under a “no-brainer” in my eyes. The Under is 6-0 the last six times Chicago has faced a team that has a winning record. Boston has allowed just 94 and 107 points its last two games, excluding overtime. 8* 

This is hardly the most ideal matchup for Friday night College Football (or any other day for that matter!) but the Under is absolutely worth playing here as UConn takes on UMass. 

These are two of the worst teams in the country, although UConn could actually end up in a bowl after winning three of their last four games to get to 4-5 on the year. All four of those games have stayed Under with the last one - a 13-3 win over Boston College - being the lowest scoring yet. 

UMass is the worst team in the entire FBS. The Minutemen’s lone victory was against FCS Stony Brook. There’s been just one game where they scored more than 20 points and only two where they topped 13. This Minutemen offense is not a threat to pass as they are dead last in the country with only 78.8 YPG. 

UConn gained only 280 yards in the win over Boston College, so they aren’t exactly going to be chucking the ball all over the field either. The Huskies are averaging just 17.6 points/game. Only two times have they scored more than 14 against a FBS team all season. 

UMass is 5-1 to the Under in its last six games while UConn is 4-0 its last four. It’s as simple as that with the two offenses combining to average just over 30 points/game. 8*

This Thursday night matchup out of the Sun Belt figures to turn into a shootout. Visiting Appalachian State comes in off back to back 42-point efforts and is averaging 36.9 points/game on the year. Host Coastal Carolina averages 31.9 points/game. Offense, not defense, is the strong suit for both of these teams.

The App State rushing attack is now in full force with both Nate Noel and Camerun Peoples healthy. The duo ran for 237 yards against Georgia State almost two weeks ago. Three of the last four games, the Mountaineers have run for at least 247 yards as a team. QB Chase Brice is also having a decent year.

But the ASU defense has struggled when not facing FCS opponents. They gave up 36 points in a loss to Texas State the last time they played on the road. They also allowed 32 in a loss to James Madison and don’t forget about the 63 points North Carolina scored on them.

Coastal Carolina has QB Grayson McCall, who is completing 68.8% of his throws in 2022. McCall has passed for over 2000 yards already with 19 touchdowns against only one interception. 

But, as is the case with their opponents, the Chanticleers’ defense is a concern. They allowed over 400 yards to Marshall in a misleading win last weekend and the game before that saw Old Dominion score 49 on them. 

Both of these teams should go over 30 points Thursday night. Play the Over. 

All three of Kent State’s wins this season have been at home. Fortunately for them, they are playing at Dix Stadium tonight against Ball State. But, having yet to cover a single spread in MAC play, I’m not about to lay a touchdown with the Golden Flashes in this spot. 

Nor am I all that interested in taking the points with Ball State. The Cardinals enter in at 4-4 SU, but the three wins over FBS opponents have come by a combined 11 points.

What I am interested in doing, however, is playing the Over. Both offenses are pretty good at doing one thing and the opposing defenses just so happen not to be very good at stopping that one thing.

Kent State was forced to turn to a true freshman backup QB in their last game, but this is an offense that will look to run the ball no matter what. Ball State is second worst in the MAC, allowing 185.4 rushing yards/game. Earlier in the season, the Golden Flashes posted nearly 800 total yards against Ohio.

Ball State’s offense will look to air it out and this is a good matchup to do that as the Kent State defense is second worst in the conference in passing yards allowed. Every FBS opponent has scored at least 27 points on the Golden Flashes. Play the Over in this one. 10*

Bayern Munich has already clinched Group C by virtue of winning all five of its Champions League matches thus far. Inter Milan will be joining the German giants in the Round of 16 as they are guaranteed to finish second in the group by virtue of a win and a draw against Barcelona. 

So it’s basically just “pride” on the line in this final Group C fixture. I expect a cautious, perhaps even a downright conservative approach from both sides Tuesday. There’s just no incentive to “let loose” for either Bayer or Inter here, especially with big matches looming this weekend (in the respective domestic leagues) and various players getting ready for the World Cup as well. 

Bayern will be without Thomas Muller, Manuel Neuer, Leroy Sané and Lucas Hernandez. That’s a lot of missing firepower.

Inter, who has won four straight in all competitions, has a pretty match in Serie A against Juventus this weekend. So there’s no reason for them to push it either. But expect goalkeeper Samir Handanovic to continue his fine form. Three of those four straight Inter victories have been clean sheets. 

Bayern has conceded only twice in its five CL matches. The first one with Inter was a 2-0 final. I can’t see this one being any more high-scoring. Play the Under. 9*

These teams just met on Saturday. Indiana was a 125-116 winner, thanks in no small part to rookie Bennedict Mathurin going for 32 points. The Pacers were 11 point underdogs as they won their second straight game.

Brooklyn has lost four in a row and five of six to open the season. In the words of their own head coach, the Nets have been a “disaster” defensively. In each of the last four defeats, an opposing player has gone for 30 or more points. Mathurian, Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield combined to make 17 three-pointers Saturday.

I think the Nets are going to be extremely focused on the defensive end tonight as they are keenly aware of their previous lackluster efforts on that end of the floor. Plus, the Pacers are probably due to “cool off” a bit after hitting a combined 38 threes in the last two games.

Myles Turner did not suit up for Indiana on Saturday. With him in the lineup, the team is poised to be a lot better defensively. He is not on the injury report for Monday.

This is a really high total, a number that the teams barely cleared 48 hours ago. With Indiana unlikely to shoot as well as they did Saturday and (hopefully) a renewed commitment to defense from the Nets, Under is my call for tonight. Also, Brooklyn probably won’t shoot 50% from the field again. 10*

For the first time in quite a while, Arsenal will take the pitch not on top of the Premier League table. Manchester City moved one point ahead with a 1-0 win over Leicester City Saturday morning, but the Gunners now have their opportunity to move right back into first. They should as they are heavy favorites against Nottingham Forest, one of the three recently promoted sides for this season.

It’s actually top vs. bottom in this fixture. Forest will enter Sunday potentially all alone in last place, depending on how Wolves and Leeds fare Saturday. Regardless, we know Forest will be in the relegation zone and are likely to remain there after this match has concluded. Arsenal has not lost to a promoted side here at Emirates Stadium since 2010. 

The money line on Arsenal is unplayable at this price, however the total is offering value. It would surprise me to see the Gunners concede a goal here. They are tied for the second fewest goals allowed in the Premier League with just 11 while Forest has the second fewest goals scored this season with only 8. 

But Forest has stepped it up defensively of late, giving up just two goals in the last four matches and only one of them coming during open play. They posted a clean sheet last week against Liverpool (won 1-0!) 

Meanwhile, Arsenal has now failed to score more than one goal in five straight matches after going down 2-0 to PSV in the Europa League on Thursday. All signs points to this being a low-scoring match. Play the Under. 10*

The Phillies are up against a very tough Astros team who have now won 9 straight.  With the change in pitchers, it is now Nola who starts game one. Nola faced the Astros at the end of the regular season, shutting them out over 6 innings, but he did have a couple of poor starts mixed in with the good in September, and the poor start against the Padres in the post season. Nola has been consistently good in the early innings, but this season his ERA has ballooned past the fourth. After two fine starts in the postseason, he struggled against the Padres with a poor 4 inning effort. He will have extra rest this time out.

.  He likely faces  Astros' ace Verlander, who has been dominant this season.  He had a very poor outing against the Mariners in his first postseason start, but he has sandwiched that appearance with a pair of quality ones, including a shutout of the Phillies down the stretch. Are the Astros just being coy about naming a starter? It doesn’t really matter. They have multiple fine options for a first game pitcher.

Based on the regular season, this one should be no contest.  The Astros' pitchers, starters and bullpen alike, have been almost unhittable in the postseason, however the Phillies have peaked at precisely the right moment.  They have a monster performer in Bryce Harper driving the offense,  a couple of other big boppers stepping up, and have hit 16 home runs in the post season.  It is a very short series and one or two hitters can make a huge difference. The Astros have multiple players with great production in the postseason, so their bats can’t be underestimated. With a very low total posted for the game, I am looking for a little more offense in game one. Take the over in this one.

The Devils are an improved team, especially on offense, but in the net it has been a bit of the "same ol'".  They've limited shots but not necessarily goals. Blackwood (.871 save%) was expected to start but may be injured, in which case it will be Vanacek, who has struggled to an .833 save% in net.  Their goals against have fluctuated wildly, but against the Avs, expect more rather than less today.  
The Avalanche are underachieving (for them) on offense to date, but have far too much firepower for this to continue.  They still have the best power play in the league, and have been good on the road so far.  Georgiev, today's likely net minder, has been solid in net, but the Avalanche give up a ton of chances and sport one of the worst PKs in the league at the moment.
Look for the Avs to break out on offense and the Devils to reply in kind, resulting in a relatively high-scoring affair.  I am on the over today. 9*!

Utah has seen five of its seven games this season go Over the total. Over the last three, the Utes have scored 42 or more twice while also allowing that many two different times in the same span. So it’s mostly been high scoring games for them.

Now the opposite can be said for Washington State, who comes into Thursday having seen six of its first seven games stay Under the total. The last two games have seen the Cougars score a total of just 24 points and they lost at USC and at Oregon State. 

Utah’s offense actually hasn’t been all that explosive, despite putting up a lot of points in recent games. Wazzu has the Pac 12’s #1 scoring defense as they allow only 20.7 points/game. Oregon and USC are the only teams to score more than 24 on the Cougs. 

While the Utes’ defense has been a tad bit disappointing in 2022, they are still #1 in the conference at defending the pass. Washington State’s offense is last (in the Pac 12) at running the ball, so it may be a struggle for them to move the ball in this one. They only average 24.6 points/game to begin with. 

So this Thursday night matchup has all the makings of an Under for me. Only one game involving Wazzu this season has seen more than 45 total points scored. 10*

The Bucks and Nets met in the playoffs two years ago with the former winning a seven-game series en route to a NBA Championship. Last year, both teams fell victim to eventual Eastern Conference Champions Boston.

The Bucks have played only two games so far and they won them both, 90-88 at Philadelphia and 125-105 over Houston. The latter result came here at home on Saturday. Not only was Milwaukee one of the last two teams to start the season, they’ve now been off for three days. So I don’t expect the offense to be firing on all cylinders in this game, especially without Khris Middleton and Pat Connaughton

It’s a small sample size, but the Bucks are only 19th in offensive efficiency. There have been no problems defensively however, as they rank #1 in efficiency. The team is also playing slower to start the year. 

Though Brooklyn has been a bit of a disaster defensively thus far, the above factors have me on the Under in this game. The Nets’ offensive numbers haven’t been that good and that’s just as big of a reason as why they come into tonight at 1-2 SU/ATS. The starting five has not played well together. 

Milwaukee has scored at least 120 in 9 of the last 11 regular season meetings with Brooklyn. But the Under is 10-3 the L13 meetings overall, including 6-1 in Milwaukee. This number is too high.

Barcelona’s motivation for Wednesday’s match will be greatly affected by Inter Milan’s result earlier in the day. If Inter defeats Viktoria Plzen (and you would expect they would), then Barca has no chance of progressing to the Round of 16. 

But nevertheless, I expect this to be a high-scoring match as Robert Lewandowski faces his former club. 

Bayern Munich has already booked its spot in the knockout stage by winning all of its four Champions League matches so far. They’ve scored a total of 13 goals in the four wins. Prior to a 2-0 win over Hoffenheim on Saturday in the Bundesliga, Bayern had scored four or more times in five of six matches overall. You’ve got to figure they are going to score at least two today.

It was a 2-0 Bayern win when they hosted Barcelona last month. But the underlying metrics say that Barca was a bit unlucky there as they created more big scoring chances and had a higher xG. Can’t see Lewandowski and company getting blanked at Camp Nou, regardless if they’ve still got a shot to move on in this competition or not. 

Bayern’s defense can be leaky, especially when away from home. They’ve also conceded twice in three of the last five matches overall. I like the Over here. 10* 

A healthy Bears team is at home against the Patriots under the lights of Monday Night. The Bears have a few points in their favor; rest, an extremely good pass defense, although one that doesn't pressure much, and a strong run offense, with a pair of good RBs and a mobile Justin Fields.  Fields as a passer is another story, worst or near in most QB categories including avg. passer rating, has been sacked 23 times and pressured at an extraordinary rate to date.  It isn't about to change in Week seven as the Patriots have a solid pass defense, and are 7th in sacks.
The Patriots have put up points on offense, but have yet to face a good defense this season.  They have a pair of very good running backs, a top 5 O line and a middling pass attack under either QB. They may have some success in running against the Bears, but they will not have an easy time moving the ball in the air.  The Patriots have been good at staying on the field to date.  We'll see if that continues in week seven.  Both teams have been tough to put up points against, and I think that will continue on Monday.  Both teams will also run the ball; the Bears because they don't have a pass attack, and the Patriots to avoid Chicago's strength.
I don't see this game as the sure thing the odds would suggest.  Look for a slow game, on the ground, and a lower final score.  Go with the Bears and Patriots to go under.

West Ham is coming off a loss to Liverpool, but before that the Hammers had earned at least a point in six of seven fixtures including five in a row. The last two times they’ve failed to grab a point was a pair of 1-0 losses. They’ve now gone six matches in a row without conceding more than one goal.

Bournemouth had its own rather stunning six-match unbeaten run going, but took their first loss under interim boss Gary O’Neil, falling 1-0 to Southampton last week. Any time a newly promoted side is able to find itself in the middle of the table, they should be happy. But Bournemouth has largely overachieved to this point as it ranks dead last (by a wide margin) in the Premier League in xG. 

West Ham is tied for fifth in goals allowed this season and there’s nothing phony about that as they are also top five in expected goals allowed and shots on target per 90 minutes. So it would not be a surprise if Bournemouth failed to score a goal in this match.

But don’t look for West Ham to go wild scoring either. They have scored only nine goals in 11 EPL matches to this point. Just Wolves and Nottingham Forest have scored fewer. 

Bournemouth has failed to score a goal in six of its 11 EPL matches so far, including the last one. Back in September, they actually went four matches in a row without scoring a goal. I think this promises to be a rather “drab” affair. Play the Under. 10* 

Two very tough defense are featured in the Jets/Broncos match-up in Week seven.  The Broncos don't score points easily and now without Wilson, turn the reins over to a little-tested QB.  The Jets offense has been able to put up points to date, but they will face their toughest defense of the season in the Broncos.  The Jets' defense has vastly improved this season and have allowed less points than the Broncos over the last three games.  Both teams have potent pass pressure units: The Broncos have been unable to protect their passer this season and are 28th in sacks allowed.   The other Wilson, Zach, that is, has been well protected to date , but still with limited success as a passer.  It could be a tough game for him.  The total is low; I'm wagering on this game going lower.  Take the under on Sunday. 9*!

Fresh off a manager change, Aston Villa will host Brentford Sunday morning in Premier League action. It was a 3-0 loss to Fulham on Thursday that led to Steven Gerrard’s departure. That leaves Villa level with Wolves, on goal differential and points, in the race to avoid relegation.

Brentford is well above the drop zone, in 10th position in the table, and they are coming off a 0-0 draw with Chelsea Wednesday. That’s a point the Bees will gladly take as they aim for a top half finish in the league, or maybe even top seven.

Only Wolves have scored fewer goals this season than Aston Villa, who has found the back of the net just seven times in its 11 matches. It was a dreadful match against Fulham to end Gerrard’s tenure with both an own goal and a penalty conceded. Villa finished the match with just 10-men on the pitch due to a red card. 

The one saving grace for Aston Villa is that their defense has been pretty good this season.

Brentford’s away form has not been all that strong and they are just 18th in the league in shots per match. So the play is Under here as I certainly can’t see three goals being scored in this one. 9*

Similar to UCLA-Oregon, this is a very “contrarian” call, asking for these two SEC powerhouses to go Under. LSU just dropped 45 in a win at Florida last week while Ole Miss has now scored 100 points in its last two games.

Furthermore, the Over has cashed 12 times in the last 17 Ole Miss-LSU meetings. But not last year as Rebels won 31-17, ending a five-game losing streak to the Tigers. The total for last year’s game was a whopping 76.5! 

The number isn’t quite as high this year. But it’s still high for two teams that are going to be running the ball a lot. That means the clock will keep moving and, absent the big play, fewer scoring opportunities.

LSU’s defense did have problems allowing big plays against Florida, which is why they didn’t win in a more convincing fashion. But I still have a strong belief in the Tigers’ stop unit, which is still in the top 20 in terms of success rate against both the run and pass. Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart has had two big games, but those were against Central Arkansas and Georgia Tech. This will be the best defense that the Rebels have seen so far in 2022. 

LSU’s offense may have scored 45 points last week, but they scored just 34 in the previous two games combined. The Tigers are 5-0 to the Under the last five times they’ve been off a straight up win. Furthermore, the Under is 12-3 in Ole Miss’ last 15 games overall and while they struggled to stop the run vs. Auburn last week, the Under is 7-0 the L7 games where the Rebels allowed 200+ rush yards the previous week. 8*

Utah’s win over USC last week really opened up the Pac 12 race. Now the only two Pac 12 teams without a conference loss will meet in Eugene as #10 Oregon hosts #9 UCLA. The Bruins are a perfect 6-0 on the season while the Ducks have won five in a row since being blown out by Georgia in the first game.

UCLA is just 3-14 straight up the last 17 meetings with Oregon and has not won here in Eugene since 2004. So history is not on Chip Kelly’s side as he returns to his old stomping grounds. Also working against the Bruins is Kelly’s 0-5 record vs. Top 10 teams since coming to Westwood. They’ve lost those five games by an average of 23.6 points/game.

But this is obviously the best Bruins team we’ve seen in awhile. So I’m focusing on the total. 

Now both offenses come in averaging 41 points/game. So the expectation here will be for another Pac 12 shootout, like what we saw last week from USC & Utah. But with both of these teams coming off a bye, the defenses have had extra time to prepare and I believe this game is going to stay Under the total. The Under is in fact a perfect 6-0 the last six times Oregon has been off a bye.

Having such a high total is a boon. I just don’t see both offenses going for 35+ in such a marquee matchup where both coaching staffs have had two weeks to prepare. It may seem “contrarian” but Under is the call here. 8*

The last five Wisconsin games have all gone Over the total. But unlike four weeks ago, when they allowed 52 points, they aren’t facing the Ohio State offense here. Nor are they facing the Northwestern defense, whom they scored 42 on two weeks ago, right after the coaching change. Last week’s final score vs. Michigan State, a 34-28 loss, is misleading as the game went to double overtime. It was 21-21 at the end of regulation.

The first three weeks of the season, admittedly vs. lesser competition, the Badgers defense allowed an average of just 8.0 points/game. The only other game of theirs I’ve yet to mention was the one that got Paul Chyrst fired. That was a 34-10 home loss to Illinois. That final score is less than the total here.

In fact, the only Wisconsin game to date with a higher O/U line than this one was against Ohio State. I realize that Purdue has put up some impressive offensive numbers of late, especially last week, but this number is too high. 

Purdue has lost 15 straight times to Wisconsin and their last win in Madison was back in 2003. So this has not been a successful matchup for them in the past. 

Despite all the offense, the Boilermakers didn’t cover the spread last week as they were 14-point favorites against Nebraska. The Under is on an 8-1 when this team is off an ATS loss. They’ve also gone Under in 19 of 28 road games. 

Only two of Wisconsin’s seven games have seen 50+ points scored in regulation. That was the loss to Ohio State and vs. a terrible New Mexico State team, whom they ran over for 66 points. Nothing like that here. 8*

Chelsea and Manchester United lock horns in the biggest Premier League match on Saturday. This is a top five battle with resurgent Chelsea having gone unbeaten over their last matches (EPL + Champions League) and Man U doing the same over their last five. I like the Under today.

Key to Chelsea’s resurgence is they’ve gotten back to being stingy when it comes to conceding goals. Over the last five matches, the Blues haven’t conceded a single time and that includes a pair of wins over AC Milan in the Champions League. However, an attempt to make it six straight wins on the pitch was thwarted midweek when Chelsea had to settle for a 0-0 draw with Brentford.

Manchester United is coming off an impressive 2-0 win over Tottenham and they’ve now gone three straight matches without conceding a goal. However, they too recently played a goalless draw, last weekend against Newcastle United. 

So goals should be scarce in today’s fixture at Stamford Bridge. Both times these teams played last season, it ended in a 1-1 draw. That makes it four straight draws between the two storied sides. 

Chelsea has declined a bit offensively under Potter, creating fewer expected goals on target than before his arrival. With neither side having conceded anything of late, Under is the clear play here. 10* 

The Astros are up a game against the Yankees and send out left-hander Valdez today. Valdez struggled in two of his last 3 regular season starts before bouncing back with a five inning shut-out vs the Phillies. He faced the Yankees once this season, giving up three runs over 6 innings. Valdez held the Mariners to 2 runs over 5+ innings in his post season start, but struggled big time in 2021 post season.

Severino was tough down the stretch, giving up just 3 runs over 16 innings in his last three starts. He faced the Astros twice this season allowing 3 and 2 runs in a pair of 6 inning starts. He gave up 8 hits and 3 runs in 5+ innings to the Guardians in his post season start this year.

The Astros are hitting reasonably well, especially for power. The Yankees’ bats are underachieving to date but were very tough on left-handers this year. I lost (barely) on the over yesterday, but am back with it today. I expect both teams’ very potent offenses to have some success. Wager on the over.

The two bye teams left standing meet in Houston for game 1 of the ALCS . The Astros are well rested, facing a tired Yankees team, and will start Verlander on regular rest. Verlander was uncharacteristically poor in his divisional start, lasting just 4 innings and giving up 6 runs. His previous start was a shut-out of the Phillies, and he was great down the stretch.

Tallon starts for the Yankees. He had a good September at 2-1, 3.23 ERA, but did give up 6 runs in 5+ innings against the Astros in June. He was also hit very hard in a bullpen appearance in post season action.

These are two hard-hitting offenses, and while they haven’t broken out in the play-offs, the total is still “pair of aces” low. I ‘m not betting on Taillon on Wednesday, and would like to see a little more of Verlander before counting on him for his usual stuff. The Astros will likely have multiple innings against a hard-worked and injury-ridden bullpen. The Yankees weren’t much for average in the post season, but have 9 home runs to date. Take the Yankees and Astros to go over in game one.

It has been a wild season for Appalachian State, who has won on a Hail Mary (Troy) and upset Texas A&M in College Station. But they’ve also come up just short after a wild fourth quarter vs. North Carolina and blew a 28-3 lead to James Madison. But fair to say the Mountaineers’ nadir came two Saturdays ago when they were upset at Texas State.

ASU was a 19-point favorite heading into San Marcos, but lost 36-24 with a head-scratching performance that saw them down by as many as 27 at one point. A pick-six by Texas State early in the second half all but sealed the result there. 

Despite outgaining Texas State, it ended up being App State’s second-lowest scoring game of the year. This is an offense that is averaging 35.2 points/game overall and 42.5 at home. I don’t think they’ll have any problems scoring on Georgia State tonight.

Georgia State began the year 0-4 with three of the losses coming at home. But the Pathers have turned it around with back to back wins, beating Army 31-14 and rival Georgia Southern 41-33. Since the opener against South Carolina, they’ve scored an average of 33 points/game.

The Over is a combined 7-5 for these teams in 2022 and has hit in three of the last four meetings. All three Overs saw 61 or more total points scored. Both these teams run the ball well and neither is particularly great defensively. I think this number is too low. Take the Over

It is rather stunning to see that Bournemouth has gone unbeaten in six straight matches following the manager change. The three results prior to the change saw the Cherries outscored 16-0 (by Man City, Arsenal & Liverpool) and while the season was still young, relegation looked inevitable. But two wins and four draws have this side, rather shockingly, 12th in the Premier League table!

As for Southampton, they do find themselves in the relegation zone, currently in 18th place after five straight matches without a win. The Saints did earn a point over the weekend, drawing 1-1 with West Ham, but only Bournemouth and Leicester City have worse goal differentials in the league.

Even with recent form being very different for the respective sides here, I still think it’s fair to say these are two of the weaker teams in the Premier League. I’m looking to the Under for Wednesday’s fixture. Is it concerning that Southampton has not kept a clean sheet in 16 consecutive matches, going back to last season? Yes. But the Saints have also scored only twice across their last five matches.

Plus, Bournemouth is dead last in xG among EPL teams, right below Southampton. I just don’t see a lot of goal scoring in this one.

Six times Bournemouth has been held to 1 or 0 goals this season. So coming off two straight two-goal efforts, regression is likely. Southampton has scored 1 or 0 goals in six of their last seven fixtures. Under is the call here. 10* 

The Colts and Jaguars managed just 18 points combined on offense in Week Five. The good news is that the defenses allowed a total of just 21. The Colts are the worst team in points scored in the NFL. They are 27th in rushing yards and that was with Taylor playing in half the games. Now with two running backs out and a strong Jags’ run defense (6th in rushing yards, and 4th in yards/carry), the Colts will be relying on Ryan and the passing offense for points and yards. Ryan has been sacked at a 10% rate, has given up far too many interceptions, and the Colts are 31st in the league in fumbles. Ryan also faces a Jaguars’ pass defense that has limited opposing QBs to a 74 passer rating.

The Jags’ semi-rookie quarterback has had a couple of solid performances, but the last two were substandard. He threw for a year-high 286 yards, but poor pass completion % and untimely picks limited his effectiveness. He can’t blame QB pressure, as there really wasn’t much from the Texans. There will be a lot more trouble from the Colts’ defense in Week Six. The Jaguars were absolutely hopeless in the red zone last week.

The Jags’ run game has shown steady improvement and is now a legitimate two pronged threat, however they face a tough Colts’ run defense that is fourth in yards given up and second in yards/attempt. Two strong defenses, key injuries on both sides and lots of question marks in both offenses sounds like a recipe for a low scoring game. Take the Jaguars and the Colts to go under on Sunday.

The Braves are on the edge of an early exit on the road against the Phillies.  The ageless Charlie Morton starts today, but he has not fared well down the stretch.  The Phillies roughed him up for 6 runs in 4+ innings in late September.  He was luckier but no better against the Mets, allowing 3 runs on 9 hits in another short start.  His road starts have been very poor with an ERA of 5.72.
Syndergaard pitched a single successful inning in relief in game 2.  His season since joining the Phillies has been very average with an ERA in the mid-fours, although he bounced back with 7 innings of shutout ball in a start and a a long relief effort in his last 2 appearances.
The Braves have an edge in offense and relief pitching, but just haven't shown it yet.  The Phillies have the momentum and the crowd, but I can't count the Braves out today.  Syndergaard is not the Thor of old, and Morton has struggled.  I still don't trust the Phillies pen, and they may have to be relied on for multiple innings.  Take the over today. 9*!

A couple of very good veterans meet up in game with Darvish facing left hander Kershaw today.  Darvish threw off concerns about past playoff woes and tossed a gem against the Mets in the Wildcard series.  He was wickedly good in September with a 1.85 ERA for the month.  The Dodgers have seen a lot of Darvish this year, and he has been very good in three of the four starts, while struggling with a 5 run effort in an earlier start.  Darvish is better pitching at home and can struggle in the first inning, although we didn't see it in his last appearance vs the Dodgers resulting in a 7 inning 2 hit shutout.
Kershaw has been equally sharp, with an ERA of 1.59 in his last three starts, and hasn't given up more than 2 runs since returning from the IL in early August.  He has pitched under 130 innings this year, and is well rested, so we should see vintage Kershaw today.  He has allowed just 1 run in 12 innings against the Padres in two previous appearances this season.
The Dodgers were the league's leading offense this year, but weren't quite as dominant down the stretch.  They got to Clevinger early yesterday but were held in check by the Padres' pen.  The Dodgers have a fine bullpen, also well rested at the moment.  
I expect solid outings from both starters today. This could be Darvish's finest season if he can make a solid play off run, but it is hard to argue with Kershaw.  The Dodgers' bullpen is formidable and well rested. The Padres' relievers shut down the Dodgers last night, and Darvish can pitch for real length.  Take Game 2 to go under the total.

The Mets and Padres are the only team to go to a wild card third game. Both have solid starters on the mound, but unlike the other series, we have seen more runs scored than expected to date. Mets’ right-hander Bassitt has had a fine season for the Mets, but has had a few tough starts mixed in with the good stuff this year. One was against the Padres early in the season, although he bounced back nicely the next time he faced them. He was also roughed up by the Braves in his last start, giving up 4 runs in just 2+ innings.

Musgrove has been solid for the Padres down the stretch, giving up just one run in three home appearances, after some mixed results in August and early September. He face the Mets just once this year, giving up 4 runs in 5 innings, not hi finest effort.

The Mets finally got the Padres monkey off their back last light, getting to the bullpen and putting up 7 runs. They are a very hot hitting team lately, and are tough on right-handed pitching. Honestly, this game could go either way tonight, however we have seen a steady diet of overs from both teams lately including games 1 and 2 of this series. Look for that trend to continue, and take the over.

The 1-3 Saints face the 2-2 Seahawks in new Orleans on Sunday. The Seahawks put up a whopping 48 points against Detroit, but gave back almost as many on defense. Geno Smith is the darling of Seattle , with comparisons to Wilson in his prime. He is a surprising 3rd in passer rating for the season, has been remarkably accurate, and appears to be settling in as a solid option. He has a good running back in Penny, terrific targets, and has had time to operate. The Seahawks are 5th in sacks allowed. New Orleans doesn’t blitz frequently, and are not strong in pressuring QBs, just 23rd in sacks to date. They gave up 263 yards to Cousins last week, but otherwise have limited teams in passing yards. They are just 20th in rushing yards allowed. They have not proved to be as dominant a defense as might have been expected to date.

Dalton was fine last week against a bottom-third Vikings defense. Kamara should be back with Ingram this week. The Saints managed 25 (nearly 28) points vs the Vikings, and have a great opportunity to score more against a highly suspect Seahawks defense. Seattle is in the bottom third in most of the league’s defensive categories, including points, passing yards and rushing yards allowed, and makes most passers look like stars.

Both teams should move the ball well, and while the Seahawks scoring another 48 against the Saints is unlikely, New Orleans has an opportunity to set a season high for points against Seattle this week. Take this game to go over.

So depending on what your closing number was for Michigan-UConn (either 58.5 or 59), the 4th ranked Wolverines are either 4-0-1 to the Under or 4-1. They won that UConn game 59-0. Each of Michigan’s first four games saw at least 58 total points scored. Then they played Iowa last week and it was 27-14.

So save for Iowa, this number is right in line with how previous Michigan games have ended up. The thing is, the Wolverines have played some terrible offenses thus far. Maryland would be the exception and they put up 27 on Jim Harbaugh’s defense. 

While I don’t think Indiana is going to challenge Michigan for an outright upset, I do see the Hoosiers putting up a decent number of points. This is because they play at the fastest tempo in the entire country, running a play every 17.5 seconds. Additionally, IU throws it at one of the highest rates in the country. As they are likely to be trailing most of this game, there’s no doubt QB Bazelak will be airing it out Saturday.

Michigan is scoring 45.4 points/game and should have no problem moving the ball against the Indiana defense, which has allowed 110 points in the last three games. JJ McCarthy is looking good at QB in Ann Arbor and even against Iowa’s good defense, the Wolverines averaged five yards/play.

Looking at the spread, all we need is three touchdowns from Indiana in this game to likely hit the Over. They have scored 21 or more in every game this year. Michigan’s defense isn’t as strong as it was in 2021. Take the Over. 10* 

This UNLV-San Jose State matchup on Friday night should turn into a shootout, even with the Rebels down two of their top three receivers.

Just five weeks into the season, UNLV has doubled its win total from the previous two years. Their best way to attack the San Jose State defense in this one would be via the run as the Spartans allow 152 yards/game on the ground, 80th in the country. One of SJSU’s best defenders, Noah Wright, left last week’s game on a stretcher. So UNLV shouldn’t have much difficulty moving the ball in this one.

So far the Rebels are putting up an average of 37.8 points/game. They’ve scored at least 31 on everyone besides California.

But SJSU’s offense has come around with 67 points in wins over Western Michigan and Wyoming the last two games. QB Chevan Cordeiro has been quite effective for the Spartans, throwing for more than 1,000 yards so far and adding another 180 on the ground. Last week, New Mexico QB Miles Kendrick was able to run for 50 yards and two touchdowns. Cordeiro should have a big game.

But UNLV QB Brumfield is pretty good too. This could easily be a game where both teams score 30-plus points. The Over is 15-1 in the Rebels’ last 16 Friday games and cashed last week against New Mexico. The offenses are better than the defenses in this one, so let’s play accordingly. 10*

This game was supposed to be played last Saturday, then Sunday, but Hurricane Ian pushed it back to Wednesday night. SMU is 2-2 after suffering two straight losses while UCF is 3-1 after a win over Georgia Tech. Both offenses are potent in their own ways (SMU - passing, UCF - rushing), but I believe we’re in for a surprisingly “low-scoring” game tonight. By “low-scoring,” I mean Under is the play here.

UCF only racked up 333 total yards against a bad Georgia Tech team in its last game. Take away a blocked punt return and the Golden Knights scored just one touchdown in the game. They’ll mainly look to run the ball in this game, which means the clock is going to keep moving and that’s friendly to the Under cashing.

Now SMU is a pass-heavy offense. But they are likely to encounter some resistance from a UCF defense that has not allowed more than 20 points in any contest this year. The Golden Knights are giving up just 13.5 points/game. I do expect them to allow a season-high tonight, but not enough where this game goes Over.

Only one of UCF’s four games so far would have eclipsed tonight’s total and that was the opener vs. FCS South Carolina State where the Knights hung 56 on the board themselves. We won’t see that kind of offensive effort from them here, trust me. Against their two toughest foes - Louisville and Georgia Tech - the offense has produced just three total offensive touchdowns. This is the highest O/U line for any UCF game this season. 

Similarly, only one of SMU’s previous four games would have made it past tonight’s O/U line. That was the last one, against TCU, and we all saw (against Oklahoma) how good the Horned Frogs offense is. Play the Under. 10*

MNF week 4 brings us the next installment in the Rams/49ers’ rivalry. So what has the home team done well to date? Sterling defense in all three games; they’ve limited points and yards, have a great pass defense, and solid run defense. The 49ers are also very good in time of possession. One caveat; they have lost Trent Williams for this week. Their rush offense has been solid as well, although it did stumble vs Denver. The big question on pass defense, is how much can Jimmy G improve after a terrible effort against a very tough Broncos pass defense. The Rams’ defense has been solid against the run but has given up plenty of pass yards and is just average in Qb pressures. Will Garoppolo break out in Week 4? I don’t see it, although he does have a fine record against the Rams.

We know what Stafford is capable of, but he has only had middling results so far, including 5 interceptions. He had a good effort against the Cardinals last week, but faces a much tougher defensive beast on Monday. Stafford and the Rams’ 30th ranked run game were stymied by the Bills’ defense, which is similar in make-up to the 49ers’. My conclusion: neither team gets very many points for very different reasons. Take the Under on Monday.

.

The Cubs haven't hit especially well lately, but boy are they getting good pitching from all sides. Rookie Cubs' starter Wesneski has been an eye-opener, with 4 of his first 5 starts of the quality variety.  The Reds' rookie Hunter Greene has finally harnessed his huge potential and has been pitching very well of late.  The Reds are hitting worse than any team in the league lately, just .169/.497 in the last week. Greene should pitch long enough to keep the Reds' pen out of too much trouble.  The Cubs are getting solid support from their relievers.  Take this game to go under! 9*!

Here’s an interesting game in Conference USA as last year’s conference champs (UTSA) are laying a small number to a team that just blew out Miami FL on the road last week, Middle Tennessee. 

Going back to last season, UTSA has seen eight straight games go Over the total. But I’m thinking differently here. The number has been bet up and is now higher than any of the Roadrunners’ previous three games vs. FBS foes this season. Note they had two games go to overtime, one of which (37-35 loss to Houston) would not have gone Over without the extra time.

Middle Tennessee just put up 500 yards of offense in Coral Gables and there was really nothing misleading about that 45-31 upset last week where they came in as 25.5-point underdogs. But remember this is the same Blue Raiders team that scored just 7 points in the season opener vs. James Madison with only 119 total yards.

The 408 passing yards we saw from MTSU quarterback Chase Cunningham last week seems like an anomaly. He had not thrown for more than 266 in any of the first three games, all of which were against lesser competition. And it’s not like the Blue Raiders ran the ball well in any of those games. They’ve averaged only 75 yards rushing in the three FBS games.

The UTSA offense will have to be fearful of a Middle Tennessee’s defense that has forced nine turnovers in the last three games. UTSA is long overdue for the Under to hit, especially with this being a higher number than all but one of those last eight games. 10*

Houston is one of just eight FBS teams to have played four games and have all of them go Over the total. But, if you were an Over bettor in any of those four games, you got a little lucky. The opener vs. UTSA went to triple overtime. The game at Texas Tech went to double overtime. They let Kansas start two eventual TD drives inside the 25-yard line. There was a late fumble return for a TD against Rice.

Now in the case of the last two games, the Over would have still hit even without the randomness. But certainly a case can be made that Houston games shouldn’t be this high-scoring. I think we’re likely to see the scoring come to an abrupt halt this week when the Cougars host Tulane, a team that has yet to allow more than 336 yards in a game all season. The Green Wave defense gives up just 11.8 points/game! 

Tulane has certainly had an interesting last two weeks. They upset Kansas State on the road but then fell at home to Southern Miss. Neither game was high-scoring with the Green Wave offense averaging just 20.5 points. 

They did allow an interception return for a TD last week, which was the difference in the game. So really, Tulane’s defense has only given up 40 points in four games.

There seems to be a lot wrong with Houston at the moment, particularly along the offensive line, and I don’t see that being fixed against this great Tulane defense which is fourth in the nation against the pass. Time for the Cougars to go Under. 9*

Now that the Guardians have clinched, the pressure is off in Cleveland. Not so for the Rays whose performance will determine who they play against in the playoffs. Two solid starters face off today. Lefty Springs has an ERA of 1.78 in September, pitching around five innings a start. He allowed 3 runs over 5 innings the last time he faced the Guardians. Quantrill is unbeaten at home this year and is 5-0, 2.52 in his last 7 games, but has been playing with fire in September with an opposing batting average of .330, nearly double that of August.

The Guardians have a solid edge on offense and have been particularly tough on left handed pitching lately. While both teams have very good bullpens, the Rays have relied heavily on their bullpen of late, and may be short in relievers. Today’s total is very low. I ma wagering on this game to go over that total. 9*!

Utah State is sitting at 0-4 ATS and 4-0 to the Under after four games. Obviously, they will not fail to cover AND go Under in every game this season. Which of these streaks are more likely to end Thursday night against BYU? I think it’s the Under streak. BYU should score a ton tonight, but look for Utah State to get their “fair share” as well.

BYU is a big favorite here, for good reason. The #19 ranked Cougars did get blown out in Oregon two weeks ago, but also hold a Top 25 win against Baylor here in Provo. Last week marked the second time in four games that the offense gained over 500 total yards. QB Hall, looking very much like a NFL prospect, has topped 300 yards passing in two straight games and is completing 71.4% of his passes this season. 

The Utah State defense has given up an average of 41.3 points the last three games. While one of those came against Alabama, the other two opponents were Weber State and UNLV and both of those teams scored 34. I would not be surprised if BYU scored 40 in this game.

But Utah State should move the ball as well.  The Aggies had 421 yards last week against UNLV,  but shot themselves in the foot with six turnovers. That was after turning it over four times the previous week. QB Logan Bonner was good last year, setting program records with 3,628 yards and 36 touchdowns. So I’m a little perplexed as to why he’s struggled so much (especially with turnovers) these first four weeks. 

The BYU defense has given up 20 or more in every game this season. I’ve got USU eclipsing that number Thursday night. This number has come down, but I’m liking the value on the Over, which has hit each of the last four times BYU has been off an ATS loss (did not cover -21.5 vs. Wyoming last week). 10*

Now that the Guardians have clinched, the pressure is off in Cleveland. Not so for the Rays whose performance will determine who they play against in the playoffs. Two solid starters face off today. Lefty Springs has an ERA of 1.78 in September, pitching around five innings a start. He allowed 3 runs over 5 innings the last time he faced the Guardians. Quantrill is unbeaten at home this year and is 5-0, 2.52 in his last 7 games, but has been playing with fire in September with an opposing batting average of .330, nearly double that of August.

The Guardians have a solid edge on offense and have been particularly tough on left handed pitching lately. While both teams have very good bullpens, the Rays have relied heavily on their bullpen of late, and may be short in relievers. Today’s total is very low. I ma wagering on this game to go over that total. 9*!

The Astros have won 3 straight, the Diamondbacks, just 3 of 10. Offense is the difference; the Diamondbacks are 29th at the moment at .192/.576, while the Astros have surged to 3rd in the last two weeks. The Diamondbacks don’t face the Astros often and usually struggle when they do. Two of the three games between them ended in very low totals.

It is a very fine pitching matchup today with Gallen facing Verlander.  Verlander has just two starts since returning from the IL, but he is as solid as ever, with the opposition hitting just .162 in September.   Gallen was sensational v. the Dodgers last time out, giving up just 1 run on 2 hits over 8 innnings.  He is 4-1, with an ERA of just 1.16 L7, bouncing back from a pair of (for him) slightly off starts.

Verlander, battling for another Cy Young, will be all in today. Gallen,  as good as he has been, may very well be one of Verlander's heirs apparent. The Astros got to the D-backs' bullpen in the first game of this series, but I expect better success by the relievers in support of their best young starter today. The Astros' bullpen is generally excellent this season. Take the Arizona and Houston to go under the total today.

The Red Sox, thrashed by the Yankees, face another AL East foe at home.  Seabold, a recent call up is on the mound in game one of the series.  He has bounced around this season with four starts under his belt, 3 of them very poor and short.  He has been hit extremely hard to date.   Don't look for much support from the Red Sox' bullpen.  We will likely see a lot of it on Monday, and that is not a good thing.

Lyles starts for the Orioles.  He has had mixed results lately, pitching a fine complete game 1 run effort against Detroit last timeout, but struggling in his previous 2 appearances.  I never like backing a pitcher after a complete game, especially one accustomed to shorter starts.  The Red Sox have had his number this year.  In the last two times they faced him, they have hit him hard and often.  He has given up far more runs than innings pitched against the Sox.

The total is high but the setting is Fenway and the wind is forecast to be blowing out.  That could be exactly what this game will be- a blow out. Both teams can hit, and the opportunities should be there for the taking.  The Sox will be in a nasty mood after their lack of success in recent games, and the Orioles are still (sort of) in the wild card race.  It could be all out offense. Take this game to go over.

The current 40.5-point spread for this game, if it holds, would be the largest for any SEC game going back to 1996. I have no interest in playing the spread, but the total did jump out to me.

Vanderbilt is 4-0 to the Over this year, starting with a 63-10 win over Hawaii. From there, the Commodores have beaten Elon 42-31, lost to Wake Forest 45-25 and then bounced back last week with a 38-28 come from behind win over Northern Illinois.

The Commies are putting up 42.0 points/game. Tonight in Tuscaloosa, they won’t even put up half that number.

The Alabama defense that Vandy is running into Saturday has allowed just 26 points - total - in three games and 19 of that came from Texas, a game that was played in Austin. 

The last two times these teams met, Vandy was shut out both times. Granted, those games were played in 2011 and 2017, but it’s not like the talent discrepancy has gotten any closer. Look for the Crimson Tide to completely shut down the Vanderbilt offense and not hang 50+ themselves. Nick Saban and the coaching staff, no matter what they say publicly, care far more about next week’s game at Arkansas. 10*

Over the last two weeks, both of these teams have been involved in a game that went Over the total, but shouldn’t have.

Two weeks ago Houston faced Texas Tech. The game went to overtime tied 20-20. That was after Texas Tech kicked the game-tying FG with three seconds left. From there, both offenses got on track and it ended up being a 33-30 final (Houston lost), just clearing the O/U line of 62.5. 

Last week, Rice upset Louisiana 33-21 as an 11.5 point home underdog. The total closed at 52. If not for an early pick-six by Louisiana, that game would not have gone Over. Rice’s defense played shockingly well, holding the Ragin Cajuns to 175 total yards and just nine first downs. One of the other Louisiana touchdowns came about after a turnover that set them up inside the red zone.

The Owls offense had a lot of big plays in that game and I do not think they’ll be able to hit those with such great frequency this week. Also, Houston shouldn’t have given up 48 points last week to Kansas. Two of the Jayhawks’ touchdown drives began inside the UH 25-yard line.

Even though the Over is a combined 6-0 for these two squads in 2022, the market is expecting the opposite result this week. So am I. Even with the number coming down several points, Under is the play here. 10* 

It’s back to back Friday night games for Air Force, who lost outright last week, on the road to Wyoming by a score of 17-14. As I did note in my analysis for that game, the Falcons’ high-powered rushing attack had been stymied in the past by Wyoming. It was “deja vu all over again” as AF ran for just 171 yards on 40 attempts in Laramie where they are now 0-4 L4 visits.

This week’s opponent, Nevada, has also played AF “tough” in the past as well. While the Falcons have the 4-2 SU edge as Mt West rivals, the last five meetings have all been one-score games with four of those decided by three points or less. Last year’s game went to OT with Air Force winning 41-39.

I think that after the debacle against Wyoming last week, the Air Force offense gets back on track here. Let’s not forget that the Falcons scored 89 points in their first two games of the season or that they have gone for 40+ in five of those last six games against Nevada.

And while Nevada has been a tough opponent for AF in the past, the Wolf Pack aren’t very good this year. The defense is young and most of the players on the field don’t have much experience defending the triple option. This is a Nevada defense that gave up 55 points to Incarnate Word, a FCS school, two weeks ago. 

With a low total and me looking for AF to put a lot of points on the board, I’m looking for this game to go Over. Nevada being shut out last week at Iowa was a case of facing a great defense. In their previous two games, the Wolf Pack had scored 79 points. I’d much rather bet the Over than lay the points in this game. The O/U line has been bet down and I’m seeing value at the current number. 10*

The Dodgers and Diamondbacks have split their series to date and send out a pair of excellent starters to decide matters today. Left hander Urias is 6-1 1.47 in his last 7 games, and has given up just 4 runs over 19 innings in his last three appearances. Galen has an even better ERA over his last 7 games.  The only time he faced the Dodgers was in April, when he shut them out over 6 innings.

The Diamondbacks struggle against left handed pitching.  4 of 5 Dodgers games and 5 of 6 D-backs last games have all gone under.  The under is also 9-1 in the last 10 when these two teams meet. I am looking for that trend to continue.  Take the under again today.

Coastal Carolina is 3-0, but it’s a shaky 3-0 as they barely escaped both Gardner-Webb and Buffalo. Even though QB Grayson McCall is still here and the offense is averaging 35.7 points/game, it has been nowhere near as efficient as the last two seasons. The Chanticleers are operating at a pretty slow tempo and have just five passing plays that have gone for more than 30 yards.

Georgia State is 0-3, but this is probably the best team in America without a win. Lots of miscues have cost them games against South Carolina, North Carolina and Charlotte. In the first two, the Panthers were underdogs, so you can make the case they weren’t expected to win. But against Charlotte, they were favored by almost three touchdowns. 

In the loss to South Carolina, Georgia State had two special teams touchdowns go against them. Both were blocked punts. North Carolina is team that put up 60+ points against Appalachian State, so holding them to “just 35” isn’t all that bad for the Panthers’ defense. I don’t know what happened last week vs. Charlotte, other than it was a sandwich spot between two games against Power 5 opponents and this, the Sun Belt opener. But still, Georgia State should not have lost last week.

There was also a fumble return for a TD by Charlotte. So that’s three non-offensive TD’s allowed by Georgia State in three games. I’ll make the case then that the defensive numbers are not as bad as they look. 

Coastal Carolina is not running the ball as effectively as they have in years past. This is the first road game for the Chanticleers and I expect the offense to struggle. The Under is 5-0 their last five road games. Georgia State is 4-1 to the Under its last five home games. Play the Under. 10*

The Ravens won easily last week, but it wasn’t the most inspiring of wins. While they limited the Jets’ running game, they allowed Flacco a ton of passing yards. They did sack him three times and pressured him frequently. On offense they took advantage of good field position. Jackson threw for 3 touchdowns, but just 211 yards. He was sacked twice. The Ravens rushed for just 63 yards, and 3 yds per carry with minimal yards from Jackson himself.

The Dolphins rolled over the Patriots, with a fine first outing from Tua and his top two receivers. It was all in the air, as the Dolphins ran for just 78 yards, no TDs and five first downs. The defense pretty well shut down the Patriots’ attack allowing just 270 total yards and 1 TD.

The Dolphins love to blitz and thoroughly disrupted the Ravens’ offense in their meeting last year. Expect more of the same tactic until it is proven unsuccessful. Obviously the Ravens have had lots of time to develop a better strategy, but Jackson can expect plenty of pressure this week.

The Dolphins are expected to be a very good defensive team this year. They won’t have to worry about much of a run game from Miami considering last week’s performance. They should pressure Tua much more than he was last week, although the number of yards given up to Flacco is disconcerting. The Dolphins have the injury bug with their offensive line., making the Ravens’ job slightly easier.

It is hard to pick a clear victor so I am looking to the total. This could be more of a defensive battle than might be expected. Take the total to go under. 9*!

Looking the Patriots and Steelers in week one, there was no joy to be seen, other than the Steelers’ pass defense. They were full marks for a 7 sack, 5 turnover day. And it wasn’t just Watt who excelled, although he will be sorely missed on Sunday. The Patriots’ run defense was also effective, limiting the Dolphins to 65 yards and 2.8 yds a carry. Their pass defense did manage 3 sacks.

Neither quarterback impressed at all. Jones’ accuracy was ok but he also missed relievers badly at very critical moments. He was sacked twice and threw 1 interception. Trubinsky shouldn’t even attempt a long game. He wasn’t intercepted because he consistently overthrew his receivers, had just a 55 % completion rate and looked uncomfortable under pressure. He will likely see more pressure on Sunday.

The two teams were 26th and 27th in total yards on offense last week, with a negligible and unsuccessful running game. Both teams finished under 80 total yards rushing and an average of 3.5 and 3.4 yds per carry.

Where are the points going to come from on Sunday? New England only managed 7 in week one, and the Steelers’ defense accounted for most of the Steelers’ field position and 7 of their points. The answer about points is they aren’t coming, or not very many of them. Take the Patriots and Steelers to go under.

The Over is 2-0 for Houston football this season with an average of 67.5 points scored in the two games. But this is highly misleading. There have been five overtimes in the two games, a 37-35 win at UTSA and a 33-30 loss at Texas Tech.

This week the Cougars open the home schedule against a Kansas team that is off a couple of strong offensive showings. Can’t remember the last time the Jayhawks have posted back to back 50+ point efforts, but that’s the situation here. Again though, it’s a little misleading. 

It was a very rare two touchdowns in OT from Kansas last week. After they scored to take the 49-42 lead, they returned an INT for a TD to make it 55. That was after WVU forced OT with a TD in the final minute of regulation.

The Houston-Texas Tech game probably shouldn’t have gone to OT either. The Cougars returned an INT for a TD in the fourth quarter, then each team made a FG in the final minute of regulation.

With both teams coming off games that ended up “misleadingly” high-scoring, I’ll back the Under here. Even with five overtimes, the Houston offense is only averaging 350 yards per game. The Kansas offense certainly won’t continue putting up the kinds of numbers we’ve seen in the first two games. 10*

The Tigers have won 3 straight, something of an achievement for them.  They are hitting surprisingly well at the moment,  climbing to 7th in the league in the last week.  Their starter, lefty Tyler Alexander, has had a rough ride of late.  All of his last three starts were under 5 innings and he has given up more than a run an inning,  The bullpen, which has been a bright spot for the Tigers this year, has not been as solid lately.

The 3-7 Royals are struggling, but 2 of those wins came against the Tigers. The Royals' bats have fallen off lately, and the starters have struggled.  Singer has been very good in his last 7 starts, however he has regressed slightly in his last 2, allowing 4 runs in each.  The Royals bullpen, at the bottom of the barrel for the season, has been slightly better of late.

The Royals should get the opportunity for some runs with Alexander pitching, and Singer has not been quite as tough in his last 2 starts. The Tigers have hit the Royals hard in the first 2 games of this series. Their games lately have been consistently over, and today's total is quite low.  Take the Tigers and Royals to go over today.

We’ve got a Top 25 matchup in Pittsburgh Saturday afternoon with the 17th ranked Panthers hosting #24 Tennessee. Despite Pitt being at home and the higher ranked team, they are the underdog here. The bloom really came off their rose with less than stellar showing against West Virginia in the opener. It was a 31-24 win, but the Panthers needed a late pick-six and did not cover the spread.

Tennessee did cover the spread in its first game, easily defeating Ball State by a score of 59-10. The Volunteers had 38 points by halftime and 52 by the end of the third quarter. Eight different receivers caught a pass in the first half. With last year’s top rusher Jabari Smith back and four returning offensive linemen, the Vols will be able to run the ball effectively here as well.

Cause for concern if you’re a Pitt fan - not only did Tennessee average more than five yards/carry last season and West Virginia just went for 5.6 yards/carry. 

No team in America played “faster” than Tennessee did last year. Under Josh Heupel, they averaged 3.12 plays per minute! This is what I like to see when betting the Over.

No one thinks Kedon Slovis is going to be able to “replace” Kenny Pickett at Pitt, but the USC transfer threw for 300 yards against WVU. Over the course of the game, the Panthers’ offense started playing faster as well.  This game should be a shootout! 9*

South Carolina needed TWO blocked punt returns for touchdowns to get to 35 points last week against Georgia State. But the Gamecocks’ offense should be on full display this week at Arkansas, who could be down two defensive starters.

Like South Carolina, the Razorbacks won their season opener. But in defeating Cincinnati 31-24 as a 6.5-point favorites, Arkansas gave up plenty of yards (438) and honestly was fortunate not to allow more points. Six different times, the Bearcats offense crossed midfield only to come up empty. They also started a drive inside the Arkansas’ five-yard line and wound up settling for a field goal. 

But I was impressed with the Arkansas’ offense, specifically QB Jefferson, who accounted for four touchdowns last Saturday. He put up 9.3 yards per attempt last season, so a strong showing was really not that much of a surprise. Also, the Arkansas’ rushing attack seems like it won’t skip a beat, despite Trelon Smith leaving.

South Carolina’s defense was pretty bad at stopping the run in 2021 and with only one starter back along the defensive line, they figure to struggle to stop Arkansas from moving the chains.

But as I stated at the top, look for a better showing from the SC offense in this game. Oklahoma transfer Spencer Rattler has a great set of skill position players surrounding him. Look for the Gamecocks to take advantage of a possibly depleted Arkansas secondary. 10*