Don’t look now but the Diamondbacks are 7-3 and working their way into semi-respectability. The Cubs are the reverse at 3-7 L10, getting short and poor outings from their starters. Friday’s starters are also going in different directions. Cubs’ lefty Smyly (3.04) threw shut-outs in his first two starts but has regressed since then. His starts have lasted just 4+ innings in his last two, and the long ball has been an issue. Right-handed starter Zack Davies has been quite the reverse. He had an ERA of 5.40 over 4 starts in April, but has come around in May with 2 shutout appearances lasting 11 innings.

Neither bullpen is anything special. The D-backs’ pen was absolutely shelled last time out, and is barely adequate otherwise. The only advantage is that Davies will likely pitch longer into the start.

While the starting pitching is the usual culprit, the Cubs’ relievers’ ERA is hovering around 4.00 and has been used a lot.

The Cubs would appear to have a considerable advantage on offense, but looking closer, they have been hitting very poorly vs right handed pitching, batting .187/10. The Cubs have also faced some of the best starters in the league lately, so could be due for a bounce-back. The Diamond-backs are hardly a powerhouse on offense, but are hitting 50 points better vs lefties over the last 10 games. I don’t see both of these starters faring well on Friday, and neither bullpen is of shut-down quality. I will be interested to see if the D-backs continue their success at home (4-2) and against left-handed pitching.Let us also see if the Cubs’ bats can return to form. I am wagering on the Cubs and Diamondbacks going over the total.

Boston gave Game 5 away at home and now finds itself in a situation where it must beat Milwaukee two straight times. The Celtics were up by 14 in the fourth quarter on Wednesday, but could not hold and some really lousy play down the stretch cost them that game. The Bucks' last two wins in this series have been by five total points though and I don’t want to play them either tonight.

After Milwaukee’s first eight playoff games all went Under, the Over has been the winning bet in each of the last two games here. There were 224 and 217 points scored in those games. Look for less tonight. Jayson Tatum had 34 points in the last game for Boston. But he’s clearly been bothered by a wrist injury and won’t match that in Game 6.

It’s interesting that the two Overs in this series have come with Boston’s Robert Williams III on the bench. Williams could be back for Game 6.  That would be huge for Boston to have one of its premier defenders back in the lineup. Remember though that the Celtics led the NBA in scoring defense during the regular season. 

Milwaukee is averaging only 101.6 points per game in this series while shooting 42.7%. Pretty amazing that they are in a position to move on. Giannis Antetokounmpo can’t be counted on for 40 points every night though and Kris Middleton remains out. 

Games in this series have averaged only 206 points. Take the Under. 

We turn to the total for this critical Game 6 between the Suns and Mavericks. Dallas must win here to stay alive, or Phoenix moves on to its second straight Western Conference Final. I say to expect a low-scoring affair tonight in “Big D.:

The Mavs only give up 101.3 points per game at home. That is #1 in the league, almost two points better than the second best team. Phoenix averaged 97.5 points in the two games here in the series.

The Under has hit each of the last three games in this series. Dallas could only muster 80 in Game 5, a sad showing where they hit just eight threes. They certainly will score more tonight. But this is a team that over its last eight games has topped 103 just three times.

After shooting above 50 percent in their first eight playoff games, the Suns have finished below that mark in each of the last three games. That shouldn’t be all that surprising. It’s hard to consistently make more shots than you miss.

The Under is 31-14 this year in Dallas home games. It’s an average of 209.2 points per game scored here. Another Under is in the cards tonight.

If Vasilevskiy’s amazing record of rebounding after a loss is to continue and Tampa Bay is to stave off elimination, he and the Lightning will have to better control the Leafs’ impressive offense. I am not sure if the Lightning are ready to bow out, especially at home. The trend in this series since the second game has been towards the over, but I am expecting tighter, more conservative play in game 6. The Leafs’ addition of Giordano has solidified their defense, and Campbell, to date in the series at least, has arguably out-played Vasilevskiy. In the end defense and goal-tending wins games, and both teams will play that way today. Look for a result similar to game one and take the UNDER today.

Home ice has ruled in the Carolina/Boston series, and the Bruins' big three have benefitted from the final change.  The Over has also ruled; the tendency with such defensively successful regular season teams is to lean towards the under, but it hasn't been that kind of a play-off series.  Carolina has given up 5 goals in each of the Boston dates, and has historically seen the over more often that not when facing the Bruins in Boston.  I do expect more than 2 goals from the Hurricanes today, however the Big Bad Bruins are down to the wire.  Look for all-out effort from the pest and the rest, and take the over today.

It is do or die for the Rangers tonight. They play against an aging but immensely talented and experienced Penguins team, running out its third string goalie, Louis Domingue. It ought to be no contest in net with Shesterkin in net for the Rangers, but he has not been effective in his last two starts. Maybe that 83 save multiple overtime loss broke Shesterkin, but for now the Penguins appear to have his number. The Penguins are firing on all cylinders at the moment with over 40 shots in their last 2 games, and if you allow Crosby and Co. that many shots, bad things will happen. I have no faith in new cult hero Domingue’s abilities. The total is very average, and has gone over in every game in this series. Take the OVER again today.

The Heat went cold from three in the two games at Philadelphia, going 7 of 30 and 7 of 35 in the two games there. That’s 21.5 percent, well below their league-leading average during the regular season. But they also shot 25% from three in Game 1 of this series, which was at home. Maybe you’ve just got to credit the Philly defense.

This series has seen the Under and Over alternate, neither hitting back to back games. The Over hit in Game 4, so that means it’s time to go back to the Under. The 76ers shot much better in the two home games than they did in the first two in Miami. Some of that can be tied to the return of Joel Embiid. But I also don’t think you should expect the Sixers to shoot 54% overall and 48.5% from three again like they did in Game 4.

The Under remains 6-2 in all Miami playoff games. Philadelphia failed to score more than 103 in any of the first three games of this series and we should see good Heat defense tonight. Philly is 6-0 Under off their previous six games scoring 100 or more. If you can believe it, the Sixers haven’t scored 100 points in regulation back to back games since the first two games vs. Toronto.

Miami scored only 79 points when it lost Game 3. They bounced back a bit to score 108 in Game 4, but I don’t see them matching that number tonight. Jimmy Butler has had to carry too much of the scoring load. Play the Under here. 

Golden State blitzed Memphis in Game 3, winning 142-112, and now it seems unlikely that Ja Morant will suit up for the Grizzlies in Game 4. In other words, it seems like the road team is in a tough spot. Although, they have gone 20-5 straight up this season when Morant is out of the lineup.

The Warriors shooting as well as they did in Game 3 caught me by surprise. Not that I didn’t expect a slight uptick after their Game 2 performance, where they made only seven three-pointers. But shooting 63% overall and 53% from three is off the charts. It was one of the best postseason shooting performances in history. It won’t be matched tonight.

Memphis made 16 threes of their own in Game 3. With Morant highly questionable to play tonight, they won’t be matching that number either. Morant hit 13 threes in the first three games. Even if does somehow play, remember he wasn’t making many threes in the first round vs. Minnesota.

Golden State only allows 103.1 points per game at home. Defending a Grizzlies team that is in all likelihood going to be without its top scorer seems like a “walk in the park?” 

Morant had 47 of his team’s 106 points in Game 2. The Grizzlies will struggle to score without him. If the reports are wrong and Morant somehow does play, he won’t be 100 percent, and thus I wouldn’t expect a big game. Grab the Under.

We’ve yet to see an Over in this series or, in the case of Milwaukee, the entire postseason! The Bucks are 8-0 Under here in the playoffs, allowing an average of just 96.9 points per game. I believe we’ll see that Under streak come to an end tonight in Game 4 vs. Boston.

It was terrible all-around shooting in Game 3. The Celtics shot 36.8% while the Bucks weren’t much better at 40.4%. Both teams shot similarly from three with Boston only making 9 of 33 and Milwaukee making 9 of 34. Still, the game very nearly made it to the 212 point total (was a 103-101 final). 

You have to imagine we will see better shooting, from both teams, in this game. Therefore, there will be more than just a few added points and the Over seems likely. 

Boston made 38 three-pointers in the first two games, so a return to form there seems obvious. 

The four times these teams met in the regular season, every game had a minimum of 220 total points scored. I just think we’re destined for an Under. There haven’t been too many Milwaukee games this season where the O/U was lower than it is here.

I can imagine that Calgary coach had some choice words for his team after the home loss. Kudos to the Stars to do what was needed to slow the pace and gain a much needed victory. It hasn't been the most exciting hockey, but a win is a win.  Dallas has been very impressive at home, and looks to have a hot goal-tender. Offense is the issue for them. I expect the hard-driving Flames will find a way to win tonight but like the odds on the total much better.  Look for Markstrom and Oettinger to keep the puck out of the net again and take the UNDER!

The Grizzlies and Warriors are squared away at one game each. The two games have been decided by a total of six points and Memphis has covered the spread both times. They were slight underdogs at home and only lost Game 1 by a single point.

As they hit the road for the first time in the series, Memphis will do so without Dillon Brooks, who is suspended for Game 3 due to injuring Gary Payton II. Though Brooks had contributed only eight points in the second round, he is considered a major loss here. In the first round series with Minnesota, Brooks had three games of 23 or more points.

Payton had been a surprise starter in the first two games for Golden State, after coming off the bench in the first round. The Warriors are now going to be forced to rely more on Andrew Wiggins - at both ends of the floor.

Andre Iguodala is also out for the Warriors. But perhaps the greater concern is that the team shot 7 of 38 on three-pointers in Game 2. They’ll shoot a higher percentage tonight, but I don’t think it will be enough to send this game Over the total.

Game 1 did go Over, but that total opened 10 points lower than the closing O/U line for Game 2, which went Under. The Under is 4-0 the last four times Golden State has been off a loss. The Under is 6-2 in Memphis’ last eight road games.

Miami was swept by the D-backs, and are up against a tougher opponent in the Padres. Lefty Jesus Luzardo (3.10) starts for the Marlins. Other than one poor start, he has been very strong, giving up just I HR and striking out 28. His mound opponent, Nick Martinez(4.12 ERA) hasn’t been quite as effective, with relatively short starts and some control issues.

The Marlins have the edge in relief pitching for the season; it was the starters who let them down vs the Diamondbacks. The Padres’ bullpen has a collective ERA over 4, and has bulged to 4.80 in their last 5 games.

Surprisingly, the Marlins also have an edge in offense at the moment, and hit better against right-handers. The Padres are hitting poorly for average and middle of the pack for power, but for the season have hit left-handers better.

It is tough to pick a favorite in this game, so I am looking to the total today. Martinez’s control issues are a concern as is the Padres’ bullpen. The total is low for this match-up, too low for my liking. Take the Marlins and Padres to go over.

It is a long time since Aaron Sanchez pitched successfully. He finished last season poorly and has just 2 very average starts this year. He likely won’t last long and may not prosper in Coors Field.

Rockies starter Senzatela, has pitched well in the rarefied airs of Colorado. In 4 starts to date, he had just one “rocky” one and that was in Detroit. He was very good vs the Reds last start.

Both teams are top 5 in batting and have hit the ball particularly hard lately. The Nationals have scored 38 runs in their last 4 games and the Rockies have had a pair of 10 run efforts in their last five.

Neither of these bullpens can hold a lead. The Rockies are last in bullpen stats and the Nationals aren’t far behind. The total is high, but I am all over the OVER on Thursday

These teams combined to shoot 21 percent from three in Game 1. They were 15 of 70. Miami, the top three-point shooting team in the league, was 9 of 36, well below their season average of 37.6 percent. Philadelphia was even worse, making only 6 of 34 (17.6%). You have to figure we’re getting better three-point shooting in Game 2.

James Harden, who is expected to carry the scoring load with Joel Embiid still out, finished with only 16 points in Game 1. But it wasn’t just him that undeperformed. The 76ers’ bench chipped in only 21 points total and 10 of them came from Furkan Korkmaz. The reserves were a combined 1 of 12 on three point tries. 

Across the board, the Sixers should be more efficient on offense tonight. That means even if Tobias Harris can’t match his 27 point Game 1 effort, we’re in good shape on this side with the Over.

Miami will obviously be better from three-point range as well and Jimmy Butler should bounce back from a 15-point Game 1 where he was just 5 of 16 shooting. 

Philadelphia is 13-7 Over after scoring less than 100 points or less. They are also 6-1 to the Over following an ATS loss. Until the Sixers fell apart offensively in the last quarter and a half, Game 1 seemed like it might be headed Over. Game 2 promises to be higher scoring and WILL go Over. 

Much as I am a fan of the Wild, meeting the Blues in the first round is not a good fit for them. The Wild have beaten everyone and anyone lately, and limited good teams to low goals-against, but bring in the Blues and defense goes out the window. The Wild have lost the last 5 meetings, dating back to last year.

These are two very good offensive teams, 3rd and 5th in the league, and when they play, a high total has been almost a given. Husso will likely start for the Blues, and a little of the shine has rubbed off him as the season ground down. The Wild have two fine options in net. Goaltenders aside, I suspect that both teams will do what they do best, which is score goals. Don’t overlook overtime figuring prominently in this series.

I’ll delay picking winners until I have seen at least one game, but I do like the total on Monday. Shop around, then take the over.

This series took a dramatic turn before even getting underway with the announcement that the 76ers’ Joel Embiid would be out indefinitely. It has since been reported that he could return for Games 3 or 4. But we know Embiid will miss Monday’s opener in Miami. 

Luckily for Philadelphia, they still have James Harden, not to mention Tyrese Maxey, who poured in 38 points the last time the Sixers were in a series opener. In both the first and last game of the Toronto series, the team topped 130 points. They are 4-2 Over the next game, the previous six times they scored 130+ in a game. They are also 8-2 Over when playing with three or more days rest.

The loss of Embiid is significant, but I still believe the Sixers will score. Also, this is a low total for Game 1. Lower than the closing number for any game in the Philly-Toronto series or the Miami-Atlanta series.

Jimmy Butler will be back for the Heat while Tyler Herro will also play. Kyle Lowry remains out. Miami had scored 110 or more in the first four games of the Atlanta series, before winning 97-94 in Game 5 to close things out.

I look at this Game 1 and think both teams can score 105 points rather easily. That is all we need. When the Sixers beat the Heat 113-106 on March 21st, not only did they not have Embiid, but Harden was also out. Go with the OVER.

INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY. DISREGARD.

The Celtics were the only team to pull off a sweep in the first round, making it look easy against the Nets. But the Bucks needed only five games to oust the Bulls. It’s not a surprise to see Boston as the favorite to win this series, they do have the home court advantage after all, but it would be a mistake to write off the NBA Champs.

The teams split four regular season matchups with the home team winning every time. Only one of the meetings has been since Christmas, so I’m not looking into them too much. The Bucks did win the last one though, earlier this month, 127-121. 

The Over/Under was a 2-2 split in those four regular season games, but it’s interesting that they averaged 233.3 total points scored. Expect the games in this series to be a lot lower scoring. The Bucks were 5-0 Under in the first round while posting the lowest defensive efficiency rating of any team in the playoffs.

Remember that Milwaukee is without its second leading scorer Khris Middleton. Wesley Matthews has been starting in his  place, but it was Grayson Allen stepping up to average 20+ points in the three games without Middleton. Allen made 11 threes in those three games. I don’t see that happening against a Boston team that defended Kevin Durant so well.

On the other side, Jaylen Brown is dealing with a hamstring injury for the Celtics. I look for a low-scoring Game 1. Grab the UNDER.

This was expected to be the highest scoring series of the first round with totals in the 230’s. But three of the first five games have stayed Under and oddsmakers have adjusted a bit, posting a total for Game 6 that is 10 points lower than Game 1. 

Personally, I’ve made just two wagers in this series. I won both. It was Minnesota (+6.5) winning Game 1 outright for me, then I had the Under in Game 3. 

The Timberwolves should probably be the team with the opportunity to close things out tonight. Honestly, you could make the argument that they could have already won the series. Twice they blew double digit leads in the fourth quarter and lost. The second time was Game 5, which ended up being a two-point loss. 

Minnesota is better defensively at home, but we are still talking about the two highest scoring teams from the regular season and of the eight first round playoff series, this one is - by far - averaging the highest number of possessions per game. 

Expect Memphis to shoot much better from three-point range than they did in Game 5 where they were only 25 percent. They’ve scored 111 or more in all but one of the five games. Minnesota is 18-8 to the Over following a straight up loss. 

Utah should have Deron Williams for Game 6, but regardless I don’t expect them to play all that well. They’ve been a bit exposed in this series by the Mavericks, who didn’t even have Luka Doncic for the first three games.

Do I expect the Jazz to shoot better than 10 percent on three-pointers? That was where they finished in Game 5. Obviously, they’ll shoot better in tonight’s game. But they are averaging less than 100 points in the series. Only one game have they scored more than 104.

Dallas hasn’t exactly torn it up offensively either. The last two games have seen them score 102 and 99. 

The Mavs played at the slowest tempo in the regular season and of the eight first round series, this one has averaged the third fewest number of possessions. 

Utah has been able to hit better than 32% from three in just one of the five games so far. Mitchell is hurting and no one else seems able to step it up. Another low-scoring game should be in the cards

When Philadelphia was up 3-0 in this series, it was considered a formality that they’d move on to the second round. After all, no team in NBA history has ever come back from an 0-3 series deficit. But all of a sudden Toronto has won two in a row, to seize momentum, and Joel Embiid is hurt for the Sixers.

Embiid, despite playing with a torn ligament in his right thumb, still led the team with 20 points and 11 rebounds. James Harden finishing just 4 of 11 from the field was a problem and Embiid called him out afterwards. Also, Tyrese Maxey (who was the Game 1 hero with 38 points) has seen his scoring decline throughout the series. He’s scored just 23 points combined in the past two games.

The Sixers scored only 88 points in Game 5 on 38.3 percent shooting. Expect a far better effort at the offensive end this evening. The team is 6-2 to the Over following its last eight straight up defeats.

Toronto and Philly combined to shoot 18 of 68 on three-pointers in the last game. That’s just over 26 percent. For the year, they combined to shoot better than 35 percent. Again, we’ll pick up points in that regard tonight.

I know this has been a low scoring series - the last four games have all gone Under - but this number looks too low given what the two sides are capable of doing. Both teams’ games average right around 216 points over the course of the season. Take the OVER.

Golden State missed out on its chance to sweep Denver, losing Sunday by a score of 126-121. But the good news is that no team in NBA history has ever blown a 3-0 series lead (Warriors infamously blew a 3-1 series lead in the 2016 NBA Finals) and now they are back home for Game 5 and heavily favored to close out the series.

The first four games have all gone Over. The Warriors and Nuggets have combined to average 245.4 points with every game seeing 230 or more points scored. Game 4 was the highest scoring one so far.

The total for Game 5 has been set a little higher than the previous games. What I don’t think will happen Wednesday is Denver shooting 56.5 percent again like they did at home in Game 4. The last two games have seen both teams shoot better than 50 percent. I don’t see that happening again either.

Golden State is an elite defensive team at home where they give up an average of just 103.3 points per game. The Under is still 25-17 in Warriors’ home games this season. Denver averaged only 106.5 points in the first two games here.

So, with their season still on the line, it’s up to Denver defensively. They’ve yet to hold Golden State to less than 118 points, but if they can keep them closer to 111 (what the Nuggets are allowing per game, for the year), then we’ve got a great shot at this one going Under.

The O’s face the Yankees in the confines of Yankee Stadium on Tuesday. The Orioles took their home series from the Yankees on the backs of their pitchers. Today’s starter Jordan Lyles held NY to just 1 run over 5 innings in his second start. He was roughed up in his first outing of the year, but his last two have been excellent. The O’s are also getting very good results from their bullpen, with a collective ERA of just 2.75. Of note, the Orioles have 3 shutouts to date.

Severino starts for NY. After 2 lost seasons due to injury, Severino appears healthy and the stats reflect this. In his 2nd and 3rd start, he lasted 10 innings total, allowing just a single run. The Yankees’ bullpen has been most impressive, with a very sharp ERA of 2.44, good for 4th in the league.

While the Yankees are not hitting for average (.235 ERA), their power figures are acceptable, although more is expected from Yankees’ bats. They have been a solid 7-3 at home this year. The Orioles are poor on the road so far (3-7) and also poor vs right-handed pitching (3-6). Their offense, as expected, is struggling in a big way, hitting just .211, with a severe power outage, just 44 runs, and 6 home runs to date.

These are two fine starters, supported by strong relievers. The Orioles’ offense is out and out poor, and the Yankees’ bats have yet to fully come around. The total is on the high side. I am a big fan of the under today

Even with an abundance of free throw attempts, Game 4 still saw only 199 total points scored. Part of the problem was that the Jazz missed 16 of their 42 attempts from the charity stripe. Playing on the road in Game 5, Utah won’t be getting to the FT line with such regularity tonight. But I do expect them to start sinking more threes. 

Games 2 and 3 of this series did make it Over the total with Game 3 being the highest-scoring, finishing with 244 total points. Luka Doncic finally suited up for Dallas in Game 4 and while he scored 30, only one other Mavs player had more than 11 and the team ended up with just 99.

Both teams should increase their scoring tonight. It’s been especially strange to see Utah fail to hit its season average of 113.2 points in three of the four games. They are attempting a lot less three-point tries, but I imagine we’ll see a change there for Game 5.

Utah shot only 30 percent from three in the two games at home, well below their season average. Neither team shot better than 43% overall in Game 4. Again, you’ve got to think we’ll see better shot-making this evening. 

The Over has been a winning bet five of the last six times that Dallas has been favored. They are favored tonight (first time in the series). The Mavs have attempted 42 or more threes each of the last three games. That volume coupled with the likelihood of improved long-distance shooting by the Jazz has me on the OVER.

The last two games of this series went Over. But that was with some real hot shooting, from New Orleans in Game 2 (56.7 percent from three!) and then Phoenix in Game 3 (67% from inside the arc). I had the ATS winner of each game, but it’s back to the Under (which I had in Game 1) for Game 4.

Devin Booker being out for Phoenix is a big deal. The Suns still scored 114 points without their leading scorer on Friday, but were 4 of 26 on three-point attempts and are going to continue to struggle in that regard. Booker made seven threes (all in the first half) in Game 2. 

The Over has hit seven straight times when these teams have played in New Orleans. But there were a lot of free throws in Game 3. The Suns and Pelicans combined to make 46 of 58 from the line. Expect a decrease in this area for Game 4. 

We’ve seen great overall shooting the last two games with both teams hitting over 50 percent from the field. I just don’t think that can continue. I expect the Pelicans to start missing more threes.

New Orleans is 15-8 under this season playing with revenge for a home loss. Take the Under.

Brooklyn finds itself down 0-2 in this best of seven series and while they are now at home, the Nets’ ATS record at the Barclays Center this season (9-32) leaves a lot to be desired. It is in fact the worst home ATS record in the NBA. So I’m not interested in playing them in Game 3.

Games 1 and 2 both finished close to the oddsmakers’ total. Game 1 just went Over while Game 2 just stayed Under. I think Game 3 is likely to be the lowest scoring game of the series. 

Boston is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and on the road, they give up an average of just 105.2 points per game. Brooklyn is 4-0 Under when trailing in a playoff series. 

The Nets have actually shot better from the field than have the Celtics so far, 51.3% to 47.7%. I do not believe the Nets can stay over 50% against the defensive-minded Celtics. On the flip side, the Celtics won’t shoot as well as they did in Game 2 when they finished at 52.0%.

Brooklyn is shooting 46% from three in the series, which will be a difficult percentage to maintain. The Under is 21-8 in Brooklyn home games when the total is 220 points or higher. Take the UNDER.

The Blue Jays meet the Astros for the second game of the series in Houston. Astros starter Urquidy was shelled the first time out, but was much more as expected in his second. He will have to pitch very well on Saturday to match the Jays’ starter Manoah, who has been dominant in his first two starts, pitching for length early in the season.

Both teams have at least 1 big bat down. The Astros hitters have not found their form yet. Their team batting average is sub.200, and the runs just aren’t coming. The Jays have the edge on offense at the moment, but if he is on form, Urquidy is tough to take advantage of. The Astros have the better bullpen, but the Jays’ closer has won 8 straight.

The total for this game is high, but it doesn’t reflect the quality of the starters or relievers. The Astros in particular have not lived up to their reputation on offense to date. Take this game to go Under.

The Sabres can be counted on for goals, for and against.  9 of their last 10 games have gone over today’s total. Their scoring has been explosive. They are far over their season’s average of 2.8 goals a game, however their defense is 25th rated.

The Islanders are known for defense and goal-tending, but 5 of their last 7 games have also have been on or over today’s total. The last game between these two teams resulted in 9 goals. The Sabres are hot, winning 4 of 5 games. They are a young team who are enjoying putting things together at this point in the season. Watch the Sabres drive today’s total up and over.

After Game 1 easily stayed Under, Game 2 finished right at the number and your result on the O/U may vary. Miami scored 115 in both games while Atlanta increased its offense from 91 to 105 points in Game 2.

Expect the Hawks to increase their number of points scored again here in Game 3. I’m confident in that assessment because they’re now back home, for the first time since scoring 132 in the play-in tournament against Charlotte. For the season, Atlanta is averaging 117 points/game at State Farm Arena.

That’s the second highest home average in the league, trailing only Memphis. Also, the Hawks finished the regular season tops in the NBA in number of points scored per possession. Bottom line - this team can score and will tonight. 

The problem for the Hawks comes on the defensive end. They give up 112.2 points/game and have the lowest defensive efficiency rating of any team in the playoffs. Miami’s Jimmy Butler scored 45 points in Game 2. He probably won’t match that number here, but the Heat can easily score 115 as a team again.

Six of the Heat’s last eight road games have gone Over. Atlanta is shooting below 30% from three in the series and that number is going to go up tonight. The Hawks have averaged 124.5 points in their last five home games. Take the OVER. 

The first two games of this series both went Over. Game 1 seemed destined to go Under, but the teams combining for a 70-point fourth quarter changed that. Game 2 saw the Warriors turn in a 44-point quarter. 

Denver has averaged only 106.5 points in the two games, so they are not really getting the job done offensively. Nikola Jokic has yet to make a three (0 for 8). This isn’t too surprising as Golden State is one of the top defensive teams, something they do not get enough credit for. 

Now the Warriors only average 109.0 points on the road, so expect their scoring to go down tonight. Jordan Poole is enjoying a breakout series as he’s drained 19 of 29 field goal attempts, which includes a sick 10 of 17 from three point range. No longer shooting at home, Poole can’t continue those numbers.

When playing with exactly two days of rest between games, the Warriors are 8-1 Under this season. They are 22-8 Under in that situation since the beginning of the 2019-20 season.

I just think Denver will play better defensively tonight. Golden State is 5-2 Under its last seven trips here.

Despite Game 2 finishing well below the total, the O/U line remains high here for Memphis-Minnesota Game 3. It’s not nearly as high as it was for Game 2, but considering the Under hit by 20 points in that last game, I’m not sweating it. Plus I don’t think oddsmakers have properly adjusted for the series moving to Minnesota.

Timberwolves’ road games have averaged 236.5 total points this season, which would certainly seem to justify the high totals we saw in Games 1 and 2. (Game 1 did go Over, by the way). But Timberwolves’ home games have averaged only 221.6 total points this season. That is a striking split.

That split is clearly reflected in the O/U results. T’wolves road games are 31-12 to the Over. At home, it’s 21-20-1 Under. 

The big difference is on the defensive end where Minnesota allows 10 fewer points per game at home than what they give up on the road. Their own scoring also declines by about five points per game.

Memphis is 8-2 to the Under in road games when the total is 230 or higher. The number is just too high. 

Philadelphia is up 2-0 in the series, but now it shifts to Toronto where the Raptors hope a change of scenery leads to better results. They’ve dropped the first two games by scores of 131-111 and 112-97. Game 1 went Over while Game 2 went Under.

The 76ers have become a much more dominant offensive team since acquiring James Harden, which is not all that surprising. They played eight games in April and the fewest number of points scored in any of them was 112. It’s not just Harden and Joel Embiid either; don’t forget Tyrese Maxey going for a team-high 38 points in Game 1. 

For the series, Philly is shooting 51.7% overall, 48% from three and 86% from the line. Can they continue these percentages on the road? Maybe not, but I still expect them to score more than 112 points in this game.

Despite potentially being short-handed again, Toronto should shoot better here than they did in Game 2. We know Thaddeus Young will be back while the statuses of Scottie Barnes and Gary Trent Jr remain up in the air. The Over is 24-16 in Raptors’ home games. They average 111 points per game themselves at home. 

The 76ers are 16-5-3 Over in their previous 24 games as a road favorite. As an away favorite, the team’s games average 223.6 points per game. Prior to Game 2, the Sixers’ previous five games had all gone Over. 

The 7-2 Giants aren’t big on giving up runs, allowing just 7 in their last five games. Alex Cobb is back for his second start, and likely won’t change the “low runs allowed” pattern, if his first start was anything to go by.

The  road Giants take on the Mets, another team off to a fine start. One reason the Mets are flourishing is the fine start from Tylor Megill, who did not give up a run in his first two starts. He was equally fine in the spring.

Here is a fine opportunity for early total. The Mets are right behind the Giants for fewest runs against.  Both pitchers are have been tough on the opposition and will likely go at least 5 innings. Take the under.

Game 1 of this series went Over, but only because the teams combined for 70 points in the fourth quarter. The entire way, the series seemed to be on a trajectory to stay Under and even with the ridiculous amount of scoring that we saw in the fourth quarter, it only made it Over by a handful of points.

Will Jordan Poole score 30 points again, as he did in his playoff debut Saturday night? Probably not! 

Don’t forget that in the regular season Golden State gave up the fewest number of points per 100 possessions in the entire league. So Denver, who is playing without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, should be kept in check again. Nikola Jokic can’t do it all himself against this Warriors team.

Line movement suggests that Under is the “sharp” play for Game 2. I think that both teams are headed for some offensive regression and the Nuggets should play better defensively with a game under their belts.

Steph Curry is still working back into shape. That and Poole’s regression tell me Under is the right call tonight.

They started slow, but eventually the Jazz overwhelmed the Luka Doncic-less Mavs and took Game 1 by a score of 99-93. As you can guess from that final score, neither side shot all that well. I’m expecting better shooting tonight and thus a higher-scoring Game 2. 

Let’s get the big news out of the way first. Doncic is not expected to play in Game 2. This is obviously a horrible break for the Mavs as they try to avoid starting this series by dropping two straight home games. Despite Doncic’s presumed absence, you’ve got to figure that at home the Mavs are going to shoot better than 38.2 percent, which is where they were at in Game 1. They also missed eight free throws and were 9 of 32 on three-point attempts.

Donovan Mitchell scored 30 of his team-high 32 points in the second half Saturday. Utah is one of the game’s higher scoring teams at 113.1 points per game, so they too are likely to improve their own shooting. 

This total is quite low, among the lowest I’ve seen for any NBA matchup all season. It’s THE lowest for any Jazz game in 2021-22 and currently the second lowest for any Mavs’ game. 

The Over is 7-1 when Utah is leading in a playoff series and I fully expect that trend to continue tonight. This number is just too low. 

New Orleans had to win two play-in games to get here and now must deal with a Suns team that had the league’s best regular season record. In the first play-in game, the Pelicans mostly controlled the Spurs from start to finish, only allowing the game to get close for a brief time in the fourth quarter. There were some wild swings vs. the Clippers with NO taking a 10-point lead into halftime, only to be outscored by 20 in the third quarter.

But the Pelicans obviously bounced back in the fourth quarter where they outscored the Clippers (who didn’t have Paul George) 31-17. While New Orleans shot exceptionally well (54.3%) against San Antonio, that game was at home. On the road, they could only 27.3 percent from three vs. the Clippers.

Phoenix is one of the highest scoring teams in the league, but their last five regular season contests all went Under. Some of that had to do with the lack of stakes involved (they’d already clinched the top seed), but it would be a mistake to discount the Suns’ defense. Visitors only shoot 43.8% here in Phoenix (for the year).

The two times these teams played in Phoenix this year, the Under ended up going 2-0. Since the Suns have been off for awhile (a whole week), they may not be sharp offensively.

The Pelicans held the Spurs to 103 points and the Clippers to 101 points. Both of those games stayed Under. The Under is 15-5-1 in their previous 21 road games. 

The Nuggets and Warriors open their best of seven series Saturday night in San Francisco with the home team pretty heavily favored. Unders dominated the NBA’s Play-In Round, cashing in all six games. We’re bound to have on Over on Saturday, but it won’t be this game.

Over their last five contests, Denver scored an average of 123.8 points while also giving up an average of 125.0. That’s clearly more than usual. For the year, Nuggets’ games averaged 223.1 points as they scored 112.7 and allowed 110.4. On the road, both those numbers dipped to 110.7 and 108.4 for a total average 219.1 points per game. 

Golden State comes into the playoffs on a five-game win streak and will likely have their full complement of players, including Steph Curry, ready to go on Saturday. But after Curry missed so much time (hasn’t played since 3/16), I believe it would be an error to expect a big game from him.

The Warriors did end up #1 in defensive efficiency for the regular season, which means they allow the fewest number of points per possession in the league. They allow only 103.1 points per game at home.

The Under is 6-2 in the previous eight meetings. The playoffs are upon us and points are harder to come by. Take the Under

Seattle’s young starter Logan Gilbert, finished 2021 strongly and was terrific in his first start of this season. The question is, will Seattle give him any run support? The Mariner bats have been slow to start this year.

The Mariners are up against the White Sox’ inexperienced pitcher Lambert. He started 3 games last year to mixed results, and didn’t pitch much this spring. The White Sox have started the season well, and their offense has been solid, but I think they’ll struggle vs. Gilbert. Between Seattle’s starter and Seattle’s bat, don’t look for a high-scoring game. I’m wagering on the Under

The Spurs and Pelicans do battle on Wednesday with the winner earning the right to face the Clippers-T’wolves loser. That game will determine the 8-seed in the Western Conference. The loser here is eliminated.

It wasn’t until late in the season that San Antonio made its move, overtaking the floundering Lakers for the 10th spot. The Spurs finished the regular season at 34-48 SU, but 43-37-2 ATS. They are 9-1-1 ATS over the last 11 games, but have lost the last three straight up.

New Orleans was 36-46 SU, but 42-40 ATS. They lost their last two regular season games after winning five of the previous six.

I think the total is too high here. Spurs’ games averaged 226.2 points per game this year. Pelicans’ games averaged 219.6. The teams faced off four times in the regular season. Three of them went Under, all with 213 or less total points scored.

The Spurs are 6-1 Under their last seven games against a team with a losing record. The Pelicans are 13-5 Under their last 18 games as a home favorite. Take the Under.

This is a matchup of a Top 10 team in defensive efficiency (Cleveland) against a Top 10 team in offensive efficiency (Brooklyn). The Nets won three of the four regular season matchups and with Kyrie Irving now a full-time participant, it’s no wonder why the home team is a decided favorite in this play-in scenario. Cleveland slumped badly down the stretch, going 3-8 SU and ATS over its last 11 games.

But Brooklyn wasn’t exactly profitable here at home either. They possess the worst home ATS mark in the NBA at 9-31-1. So let’s play the total instead.

The Nets have scored a minimum of 110 points in every game they’ve played going back to March 6th. Cleveland’s defensive numbers also seemed to fall off a cliff down the stretch, allowing at least 112 points in six of the last seven games. 

Over each team’s last five games, both are averaging more total points (scored + allowed) than the total for this game. 

This is a low total for Brooklyn. They haven’t seen a total below 230 points since March 18th. The last three Nets’ games with a total sub-230 points all went Over. The Over is 11-4 in the Cavs’ previous 15 games. 

Golden State will have home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. It’s just a matter if they will end up as the third or fourth seed. The Warriors have won their last three games and covered the last four. Tonight they are in San Antonio to face a Spurs team that is headed for the play-in tournament.

The Spurs know that they will be facing the Pelicans in the 9-10 (seed) matchup of the play-in tournament. The next Pelicans win or Spurs loss will mean that game is guaranteed to be in New Orleans. Regardless, the Spurs are facing a situation where they’ll have to win two games next week (likely both on the road) to make the playoffs.

Over its last nine games, San Antonio is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS.

I’m looking at the Under cashing Saturday night. The Spurs have held their last three opponents below 43% shooting from the field. It looks like Klay Thompson, after a 33-point effort against the Lakers, will be given the night off. The Warriors are already without Steph Curry. Even if Thompson were to play, he’s not going 12 of 22 from the field again.

The Warriors will go into the playoffs near the top of the league in defensive efficiency. San Antonio has been without leading scorer Dejounte Murray the last few games and he’s questionable for tonight (still recovering from illness) as are several other starters. 

The Panthers have won 9 of 10 and it has not been because of their defense. They have shown why they are the league’s top ranked offense, scoring 34 goals in 6 games, well above their season’s average. They have also allowed some big numbers; eighteen goals against in just 4 games.

The Preds are barely hanging on to a wild card spot, so this is a must-win. They have been averaging more than 4 goals for in their last 4 games, and have ridden their premier goalie very hard, resulting in a few dips in his usually strong play. Look for lots of shots on Saros, very wide open play, and plenty of goals from both sides.  Definitely a play for the over.

Houston has been on a roll this spring, and the success has been on the backs of its pitching staff. The Astros’ offense has, surprisingly, not shown up this spring or, for that matter, in Game 1. Odorizzi has pitched mainly on the sidelines, but pitched well in his one appearance against the Mets. He has been moved up in rotation due to an early injury to McCullers.

The Angels have also had a good spring, showing offense and reasonable pitching. Detmers is a surprise starter in game 2, but has great potential and has had a very good spring. I am excited about his stuff and think he will show well against the Astros.

The Astros offense will break out sooner or later, but I am banking on it not happening on Friday. The total is relatively high; higher than I think is warranted in this match-up. Take this game to go under the total.

The Lightning have lost 3 straight and 6 of 10, and have fallen to a wild card spot. More to the point, they have lost ugly, allowing 15 goals in three games. Vasilevskiy has been a standout for most of the season, but some fatigue may be showing. He has played a ton of hockey this season.  The Lightning have seen more overs than unders latLEy.

The Lightning may be a good home team, but the Bruins, Friday’s opponent, are formidable on the road. The Bruins are 7-3 and have been scoring in bunches in their last ten games. Now in the top three in their division, it would appear that they also have momentum on their side. They are an underdog on Friday, but I think they will be looking to bounce back off a regrettable loss to the Red Wings.  A total of 6 is available.  This game will go over.

The Lightning have lost 3 straight and 6 of 10, and have fallen to a wild card spot. More to the point, they have lost ugly, allowing 15 goals in three games. Vasilevskiy has been a standout for most of the season, but some fatigue may be showing. He has played a ton of hockey this season.  The Lightning have seen more overs than unders latLEy.

The Lightning may be a good home team, but the Bruins, Friday’s opponent, are formidable on the road. The Bruins are 7-3 and have been scoring in bunches in their last ten games. Now in the top three in their division, it would appear that they also have momentum on their side. They are an underdog on Friday, but I think they will be looking to bounce back off a regrettable loss to the Red Wings.  A total of 6 is available.  This game will go over.

The Tigers face the White Sox in their home opener, a team against which Detroit had some success in 2021, when they split their match-ups. Both teams have been just under .500 in spring training. The Tigers could be classed as up and coming this year.  Rodriguez starts for Detroit. The lefty has been a consistent performer in his career and has pitched 17 innings this spring with a reasonable ERA. The Tigers’ pitching staff has shown well so far, although their offense has yet to establish itself.

Much more is expected of the White Sox for 2022. Their offense has very good so far, with overall pitching lagging behind. Giolito starts on Friday, and he has had a very good spring. He faced the Tigers twice last year, splitting his appearances with both games going over the total.

It would be easy to count the Tigers out against the Sox, but with the Sox' strong batting and weak relief pitching in Spring, I more inclined to take a look at the total.   A reasonably low number is available, and with neither starter likely to go long, the bullpens will have some say.  Take this game to go over.

Charlotte’s defense hasn’t been good all season, but after the last two games it can only get better. The Hornets gave up 144 to both the Heat and 76ers as those games blew past the total. Tonight, I don’t think the Hornets will be giving up anywhere close to that number of points. 

"I don't think fatigue is a factor here," Charlotte coach James Borrego said after the latest loss. "There's things obviously we've got to correct." Well coach, facing Orlando should help. The Magic are tied for last in scoring at only 104 points per game.

The Magic did put 120 in a win over Cleveland Tuesday. But that was a) at home and b) the most points they’ve scored in a game in over two weeks. The previous two games saw the Magic score only 88 and 89 points. Offensive regression is in the cards for tonight.

Tuesday was only the third time all year that Orlando scored 120 or more in a game. The Under is 2-0 off the previous two times. The last time, they followed up by scoring only 90 (and allowing only 85!)

The Under is a perfect 8-0 in the Hornets' last eight Thursday night games. 

The “ever-young” Adam Wainwright is back as the starter in the Cardinals’ home opener. Will this be his final season? He was terrific last year, and other than a couple of rough innings, looked on form in Spring. The Cards had a great run last year and have started spring training strongly. This is very much a veteran team that knows how to win.

The Pirates enter the season dead last in the MLB power rankings. They are a young team with some interesting talent who may find their way into the bigs at some point in the season, but don’t look for them to make many waves right off the start. Brubaker is a surprise starter for the Pirates. He struggled badly last year with a very sizable ERA. The Pirates’ pitching staff has not shown well in spring training.

Today’s total is reasonably low. I expect the home favorite Cardinals to take advantage of an unsettled Pirates team with a questionable starter. A pitching gem is highly unlikely. Wager on the over in this match-up.

Even with nothing left to play for, Phoenix still won handily last night, beating the similarly disinterested Lakers 121-110. Both Devin Booker and DeAndre Ayton “went off,” combining to shoot 22 of 36 from the field and scoring 54 points. As a team, it was impressive that the Suns scored 121 points despite attempting only nine free throws.

The Suns know they are the #1 seed in the West for the playoffs, the Clippers know they are headed for the play-in tournament and will be the 8-seed. For LA, that means they will have two shots to make the playoffs and only need to win once. They could face the Suns in the first round.

Despite having nothing to play for, the Clippers have performed well down the stretch. In a game where they rested starters, they scored 153 on Milwaukee. Then they beat the Pelicans 119-100 on Sunday, which was a win for us.

Before beating the Pelicans, the Clippers had gone Over in five straight. Four of those five games saw at least 236 total points scored.

The Suns are one of the top offensive teams in the league. Given the recent scoring outputs from both teams, how could you not go Over here?

It comes as a surprise that the Sabres have a better record then the Hurricanes over the last 10 games. Buffalo has won or hung tough in their last 9 games, even against top teams, but this will be a difficult match-up for them today. The Sabres commonly give up 4 or 5 goals a night, and will face the best defense in the league this evening. The Hurricanes are well-rested, and looking to get back on track for the play-offs. Even through this sub-par stretch the Hurricanes have limited the opposition on offense. Look for the Canes to take advantage of a weak Sabres defense and run up the total. While I’ve had success with the Sabres on the puckline, today is all about the total. It would be a mistake to underestimate the Sabres’ scoring abilities at the moment. They have managed at least 3 goals against just about every top team lately. Look for today’s total to go over.

Going by former match-ups, the Sharks should steal this game, but the Stars are on fire at the moment. With Dallas still in the picture for a wildcard spot, they should be the more inspired team on Saturday. The Stars have won 5 of 6, and other than the games vs. the Ducks, have faced stiff competition. They have been very sharp on the road, and have held opponents to under 3 goals against over this stretch.

The Sharks have lost 3 of 4, and have struggled on offense all season. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games at home. None the less, the Sharks’ role from here until season’s end is spoiler, and Dallas is a team that can really be affected. Every victory is absolutely critical for the Stars at this point. San Jose can still pull out a good effort, and here is an opportunity to show it. I am not sold on a victory for San Jose here, but I think the Sharks will keep this game close. The total is quite low. Take the Over.

For the first time in over two months, the Celtics are on a losing streak. They’ve dropped two in a row, an overtime decision at Toronto then a back and forth game at home to Miami. Oddsmakers like their chances of bouncing back tonight though. The C’s are huge favorites at home against also-ran Indiana.

Perhaps the reason that Boston has lost two in a row has something to do with the loss of Robert Williams? He is their best defender. Yet in the two losses, the Celtics only gave up 106 points in regulation (both games). 

They should have no problem scoring here against an Indiana team that has lost five in a row and given up 125 or more points four straight times. The Pacers’ only had nine players available Wednesday and were eliminated from playoff contention long ago. There’s no reason to think they’ll try at the defensive end tonight, or for the rest of the season.

The Over has hit all four times this year when Indiana is a road underdog of 12.5 or more points. It’s 2-0 when Boston is a home favorite of 12.5 or more points. 

The Pacers can at least score though. They’ve scored 241 points the last two games and had two 38-point quarters in the last one. With Williams out for Boston, this game is going Over. 

Buffalo has been winning more than losing lately and no one has defeated them by more than a goal in 7 games. 6 of those 7 games have gone into overtime. The Sabres have scored 21 goals in 6 games; not bad for a team that has averaged 2.7 goals a game for the season. They have also allowed 22 goals in that time, with the total going over frequently.

The Preds, whose mixed play may have them on the outside looking in as far as play-offs go, have won 2 straight. The over has figured in 8 of 10 games. Other than in a pair of losses to Vegas and LA, the Preds have been a bit of a scoring machine, and should have success with the Sabres’ 26th rated defense. The Predators’ goals against average has been nothing to be proud of lately, and the usually dependable Saros has had some rough outings. I am not counting the Sabres out in this matchup. Look for a wide open game and take the over.

The Bulls are just looking to stay in the Eastern Conference top six at this point. They’re tied with Toronto for fifth, two games up on seventh place Cleveland. In the West, the Clippers are pretty well “stuck” in eighth, four games ahead of ninth place New Orleans, but 5.5 games back of Minnesota. Finishing 8th is fine as it’ll give LA two shots in the play-in round to make the playoffs. 

The Clippers had lost five in a row before coming back from 25 down to defeat Utah Tuesday night. The Bulls also won on Tuesday, albeit by a much more comfortable margin. The final score in Washington was 107-94.

The last three Clippers games have all gone Over. The last three Bulls games have all gone Under. Something will have to give in that regard tonight.

Paul George is back for LA, which is huge. He scored 34 points in 31 minutes against the Jazz. Chicago has three scorers that can lead the way on any given night: DeRozan, Vucevic and LaVine. 

Neither team impressed me much at the defensive end. The Clippers just allowed Utah to shoot 55%. In four of the five games before that, they gave up at least 120 points. The Bulls have allowed 120 or more six times this month. The Over is 13-5 in their home games this season when the total is 220 or more. Take the Over. 

The Wild are playing play-off style hockey very successfully and have allowed 2 goals or fewer in their last 7 games. This has come at the cost of the offense, with no huge goal-scoring outbursts, but with 7 wins in a row, who is going to argue.

The Penguins did have a huge goal scoring outburst vs the Red Wings, but have had difficulty scoring on good teams. They have also lost 3 of 4, managing only 3 goals in 2 games vs. the Rangers.

This game features the 4th ranked defense (Penguins) vs. a much improved one, with solid goal-tending on each side. The total is high given the match-up. Take the Under today.

Orlando has long been out of playoff contention and is tied for the worst record in the NBA at 20-56. They’re just playing out the string at this point, which means you should expect little to no defense. At least their games should be entertaining to watch!

Washington is still technically alive for the playoffs, but last night’s loss to the Bulls has them on “life support.” They are six games back with seven to play. The chance of them making up that deficit ranges from slim to none.

But again, I expect this game to be entertaining and high scoring.

The Wizards are 14-4 to the Over this season when at home and the total is 220 points or higher. They didn’t shoot all that well last night, making just 23.1% of their threes, so it should be a bounce back in that regard tonight. They scored 104, 102 and 112 in winning the first three meetings of the season vs. the Magic.

The Magic, who are usually out of contention this time of year, are 30-12 Over the last three seasons when facing a team that has a losing record in the second half of the season. Against Cleveland, they missed 6 of 13 free throws and 27 of 37 three-pointers. It’ll be better shooting tonight. Take the Over.  

I like the Sabres right now and have been riding them successfully for a few games. Losing 4-0, they bounced back for a win last time out, and they’ve won or stayed close in their last 6 matches. Buffalo has been scoring goals in handfuls; 20 in their last 5 games. They have also allowed 19, making them an attractive “over” selection.

The Jets are kinda, sorta, in the race for a wild card spot, and are finally playing closer to their potential. They’ve won 2 in a row and 7 of 10, and have scored 4 or more goals in 3 of 4 games, so should be able to pot a few vs the Sabres. The Jets are not the best road team and have been a very inconsistent team this season. They have some real fire-power, but sometimes just don’t seem to show up. Their usually stand-out goalie, Hellebuyck, has been inconsistent this year, and the Jets’ defense is just middle of the pack. A total of 6 is available, which is on the low side for these two teams. Look for a run and gun style meeting.Take the Over.

Talk about mood swings. The Preds’ last 6 games have all gone over, but they’ve alternated between high-scoring run and gun style victories with lop-sided losses. Not what you need for a team still entertaining play-off dreams. Facing the Senators, this should be a very winnable game, but considering Nashville's defense lately, nothing is certain. On the plus side, the Predators have been a very good home team this year.

The Senators struggle on the road and are off a tough shoot-out loss to the Panthers. It has been a long season for a young team in a rebuild, but they are capable of some surprising offense at times and are healthier than they have been recently. Considering how they showed against Florida, I think they will hold their own against the mercurial Predators. The total is 6 today. This one will go over..

I expect lots of points to be scored in this game. In their first home game with Kyrie Irving, the Nets only managed to score 110 points. Irving had only 16 points, on 6 of 22 shooting. He was 1 of 9 on three point attempts. Kevin Durant was 9 of 24 overall and 3 of 11 on 3PA. The team shot 7 of 34 from three point range. 

I bring all that up, because it’s very reasonable that the Nets will shoot better tonight. Even with the poor shooting from the last game, they’ve still hit 50% from the field over the last five games. There hasn’t been a single game since March 6th where Brooklyn hasn’t scored at least 110 points. Six times they’ve scored 120 or more.

Tonight they face a Pistons team that is allowing 114.7 points on the road. Most teams are not as prolific as the Nets. 

But the fact Brooklyn gives up 111.9 points per game means Detroit has a chance here. From the last game, the Pistons are also due to shoot better from three-point land. They made only 8 of 29 in Sunday’s loss to the Knicks. 

The Over is 6-2 in the Pistons’ previous eight road contests. That’s the way you should play this one.

We’re also down to the “Final Four” in the NIT this week as tonight the two semi finals take place, followed by the Final on Thursday. 

St. Bonaventure has pulled off three consecutive upsets to get to this point. The Bonnies have beaten Colorado, Oklahoma and Virginia, a list of victories made all the more impressive by the fact they all came on the road. Over their last five games, the Bonnies have held opponents to an average of 61.5 points.

Xavier’s three NIT wins were all at home and two of them were by a total of six points. Of course, St. Bonaventure’s last two wins have been by a combined three points. The winner here is probably going to be an underdog to the winner of Washington State-Texas A&M. 

This game is being played at Madison Square Garden. Worth talking about is how St. Bonaventure only averages 62.7 points per game, away from home, for the year. They were above that against Colorado and Oklahoma, but only scored 52 vs. Virginia in what was a very low-scoring contest. 

The Bonnies are 4-0 Under the last four times they’ve been favored. Xavier is on a 10-4-1 Under run its last 15 neutral site games as an underdog. Play the Under.

Denver is in a dogfight for a top six spot in the West. One thing we can probably count on from them tonight is good shooting. Six of the last eight games have seen them finish higher than 50%. Last time out they did not as they only made 8 of their 31 three point attempts. 

I expect better three-point shooting out of the Nuggets tonight as they take on a Hornets team that gives up an Eastern Conference high 114.4 points per game. Charlotte shot only 42% from the field last night and still won - 119-110 over Brooklyn. My expectation is that they too will shoot better here, compared to the last game.

The Hornets are in the top five in the league in offense, averaging 114.8 points per game. Their games, on average, are the highest scoring in the league this season.

The Nuggets had previously gone Over five straight times before the win over the Thunder on Saturday. 

The Over is 7-1 in the Hornets’ previous eight games against teams sporting a winning record. That’s the way I’m playing this one. 

Kansas is the only 1-seed still standing in this NCAA Tournament. They’ll take on a 10-seed, Miami, in the Elite 8. It’s seemingly a favorable matchup for the Jayhawks, but I’m not confident in laying the points.

I played against Kansas in the Sweet 16, making my Providence my 10* Game of the Month. The Jayhawks shot only 39.3 percent from the floor, but relied on their defense, holding the Friars to 33.8 percent for a 66-61 win. The underdog did cover and that’s all I was looking for.

Expect the shooting to improve - from both Kansas and the opponent - today. Miami is a much bigger offensive threat than anyone that the Jayhawks have faced so far in this tournament. The Hurricanes are in the Top 20 in offensive efficiency, just like Kansas, nationally.

The ‘Canes also relied on outstanding three-point defense in the Sweet 16. They held Iowa State, a poor offensive team to begin with, to 4 of 23. Probably can’t count on doing that to Kansas. 

Kansas is coming off its second lowest-scoring game since January. So they are due for a bounce back offensively. Miami is 7-3 Over its last 10 neutral site games as an underdog. Take the Over here. 

The Lightning seem to have struck out lately as far as offense goes, and wins for that matter, averaging 2 goals scored or less in their last 4 games, and losing more than they have won in their last 10. Their defense is still on form, as they’ve allowed just 11 goals in 6 games.

Don’t look for the offense to break out today against a tough Islanders side. The Isles lost last night allowing a very rare 6 goals against to the Bruins. Look for them to get back to their tight checking and low scoring style today. Sorokin is likely in net for the Isles today which is good news, but don’t expect much offense today. This is still the league’s 24th ranked offense.

The Islanders have flashed a couple of overs lately, but that was against poor teams. The Lightning have seen a steady diet of unders. Look for a typical effort from these two defense-dominant teams,  both featuring very good goal-tending. Take the under in this match-up.

Duke was involved in the lone Sweet 16 game to go Over the total, a 78-73 win over a Texas Tech that rated #1 in the country in defensive efficiency. Coach K’s career is still alive and kicking as his Blue Devils put up an impressive 49 points in the second half of that game.

Save for St. Peter’s winning last night, the biggest shocker from the Sweet 16 was Arkansas beating Gonzaga. The Razorbacks went out and beat the #1 team in the country by a score of 74-68 despite being 9.5 point underdogs.

The Hogs have now stayed Under in two straight games after their previous seven all went Over. Their second round game was very low-scoring (beat NMSU 53-48) and featured poor shooting from both teams. Arkansas is not a good three-point shooting team, making only 30.5% of its attempts for the year. 

We know Duke can score and eight of the Blue Devils’ last nine games have gone Over. But can they continue this red-hot shooting we’ve seen from them in this tournament? All three games have seen Coach K’s team make at least 51% of their field goal attempts. Arkansas holds teams to around 40%. 

Duke shot 70% percent from the field against Texas Tech in the second half and made its last eight shots. No way that carries over to tonight. There were only 62 points scored in the first half of that game. Arkansas is shooting only 39.4% overall its last five games and none of those contests have seen more than 146 points scored.

A pair of defense-first teams face off on Saturday, in a game that should feature top notch goal-tending as well. Both net-minder s for the Islanders are lights out lately, with the Bruins’ duo impressing as well. The Islanders are back to successfully playing their tight-checking and low-scoring style, and face a Bruins team who’ve won 6 of 7and limited the opposition to 2 goals or less in each victory. Of note, Bergeron is questionable for Saturday’s game. The Bruins are middle of the pack on offense but the Isles are low on the list at 24th. Both teams feature very strong Pks. Look for playoff style hockey, down and dirty in the trenches, and take the under.

The Jets are off a loss, and will play their 2nd game in two nights.  They gave up 5 goals to Ottawa, and will looking for a much different result on Friday.  Winnipeg cannot afford to lose 2 in a row against poor teams, and hope for a wild card spot, so look for extra motivation.  The over has been pretty consistent lately and against  the Blue Jackets is a good bet.  The Jackets have one of the worst defenses in the league, but can still light up  the goal light with considerable frequency.  They also have a history of high totals, so getting Friday's game at 6 is very positive.  Look for lots of offense and take the over in this match-up.

For the second year in a row, we’ve got ourselves a 15-seed in the Sweet 16. Last year was Oral Roberts. This year’s “Cinderella” is St. Peter’s, a team that finished the regular season second in the MAAC (behind Iona). Prior to last year, there had been just one 15-seed ever to make it to a regional semifinal. That was Florida Gulf Coast in 2013. 

The Peacocks have won and covered nine in a row. Their next test is a big one as they face Purdue on Friday. The third-seeded Boilermakers own wins over Yale and Texas so far. They are one of the top offensive teams in the country, ranking second in the country in efficiency and averaging 79.8 points per game. 

St. Peter’s is pretty good defensively, but they will have their chances offensively in this game as well. Purdue owns the second lowest defensive efficiency rating of the Sweet 16. 

For those reasons, I am on the Over in this one. St. Peter’s first two games went Over. The Over is 6-1 in their last seven games as an underdog.

Purdue games average 148.3 points. This is a low total for them. The last game was lower, but they were up against a Texas team that was among the nation’s leaders in scoring defense. That game went Over as the Boilermakers scored 81. 

Two teams battling to hold onto their respective playoff positions will meet Thursday in the Big Easy as the Bulls take on the Pelicans. The Bulls have gone cold since the All-Star Break, losing 9 of 12, and as a result their status as a top six team in the East is very much in doubt right now. In the West, The Pelicans are just trying to get into the play-in round, currently occupying the last spot.

The Bulls lost on Tuesday and in doing so gave up 126 points. The team’s defensive efficiency has taken a real hit in the second half of the year. Three times in the last four games Chicago has given up at least 125 points. 

I do think we’ll see them score more than the 98 points they put up in Milwaukee. Given the defensive lapses, it’s odd that the Under is 8-1 in the Bulls' previous nine contests. Similarly, it’s strange that the Pelicans’ last three games have all stayed Under. But those three games were all played on the road.

New Orleans had scored at least 115 in five consecutive games before scoring just 103 in a loss at Charlotte Monday night. The Pelicans fell apart offensively in the fourth quarter (only 19 points) after leading most of the game.

The Pelicans’ leading scorer Brandon Ingram, who has missed the last eight games, might return tonight. That would be the icing on the cake. Regardless, look for this one to go Over, which is something that has happened each of the last five times the Bulls have faced a team with a losing record. 

The first Sweet 16 game - which is between Arkansas and Gonzaga - should be a high scoring affair. These teams are a combined 0-4 ATS in this Tournament, though I’m sure neither cares about it. Gonzaga has actually had to come from behind to defeat both Georgia State and Memphis. Arkansas was in control most of the time vs. Vermont and New Mexico State, but won by a combined nine points. 

The last Arkansas game saw some truly woeful shooting - from both teams. The Razorbacks and NMSU combined to make only nine threes and shot roughly 30% for the game. With Gonzaga involved here, you know there’s going to be a sizable increase in offensive productivity.

The Zags lead the country in scoring at 87.8 points per game. They’ve scored 93 and 82 in the two tournament wins thus far. Routinely, this team will shoot better than 50 percent from the floor.

Arkansas had seen seven straight games go Over the total before facing New Mexico State. During that run, they scored 74 or more points six times. 

With the underdog Razorbacks due for an uptick an offense (after such a poor shooting night vs. NMSU) and favored Gonzaga being its usual self, expect this game to go Over the total.

The Lakers actually got a win Monday as LeBron beat his old team (Cleveland) 131-120, going for 38-11-12. This may not be as good of a spot for LA however, as they are 0-6 against the spread this season off an upset win as an underdog and 2-9 ATS off a win by 10 or more points.

The Lakers need the win though as they are just trying to make it into the play-in round. Currently, they have a three-game lead over 10th place San Antonio. Their opponents for Wednesday, the 76ers, have moved into the top four in the Eastern Conference, surging after the James Harden trade.

With Harden or Joel Embiid, the 76ers just beat the East-leading Heat, 113-106 on Monday. They have not lost back-to-back games since the Harden trade and have won 10 of 14 overall. 

In the “Harden-era,” there had previously been two poor scoring efforts, one without him (⅗ @ Miami) and the other without Embiid (3/20 @ Toronto). Other than those, the Sixers have scored at least 110 points in all but one game since the trade. Both Harden and Embiid are expected to play Wednesday night (listed as probable).

The Lakers’ last three games have all gone Over the total with them averaging 126 PPG but also giving up 123.3 PPG. I expect this to be a high-scoring game as well. The Over is 20-8 this season when the Lakers face a team from the Eastern Conference. Go Over.

The Leafs upgraded their defense, but not their goaltending, so keeping the puck out of the net is still a big issue.  3rd time was not a charm for rookie net-minder Kallgren, and he will very likely be in the net on Wednesday.  The Leafs are the 3rd ranked offense in the league, but are just 5-5 in their last 10 games, and have seen the total go over in 7 of them.

New Jersey, hot off a huge win vs. the Rangers, is playing in back to back games and on the road on Wednesday.  The Devils also have serious defense and goalie issues, but have a  young, dynamic, Hughes-led offense that can put the puck in the net.  They have had very little luck on the road lately, losing 6 straight, and the last three by identical 6-3 scores, but don't look for them to be shut-out.  Take this one to go over.

So this is a second round matchup in the “The Basketball Classic.” USC Upstate won its first round game in upset fashion, defeating Appalachian State on the road, as a 10.5 point underdog. The final score was 80-74. South Alabama beat SE Louisiana 70-68, but could not cover the nine-point spread.

South Alabama has some pretty solid defensive numbers, but I expect this to be a pretty high-scoring game. The Jaguars are overdue for a solid showing at the offensive end. After all, they do average 75.4 points at home. USC Upstate is not any kind of defensive force.

But the underdog Spartans have scored 70 or more in five of their last six games, including each of the last four. It’s going to take plenty of points to outlast them.

South Alabama ranks 140th in defensive efficiency, USC Upstate ranks 303rd. 

USC Upstate also likes to play pretty fast, which means there will be plenty of possessions in this game. They are also 12-4 Over on the road this year as well as 16-5 Over as an underdog. Look for those trends to continue Monday. 

Two teams coming off blowout wins meet in the second round with top seed Arizona facing off with 9-seed TCU.

Of the two, TCU actually won by a larger margin. The Horned Frogs impressively defeated Seton Hall 69-42 as a 1.5 point underdog. Arizona didn’t even cover, despite winning by 17, as they were 21.5 point favorites over Wright State, who was in the “First Four.”

The last six TCU games have all stayed Under the total. However, here they are up against an Arizona team that is not only 6-1 to the Over in its last seven games, but is also third in the country in scoring at 84.6 points per game.

TCU will not hold Arizona to 28.8% shooting like it did to Seton Hall. The Wildcats are shooting 53.5% over their most recent five games. But the top seed probably can’t count on holding the underdog Horned Frogs to 34.8% like it did to Wright State on Friday.

The Over has hit each of the previous six times Arizona has been off an ATS loss (which they are here). TCU is 5-0 Over the previous five times it has been off a game in which it allowed fewer than 50 points. Go with the Over in the final second round matchup of the weekend.

The Suns and Kings are likely to engage in a high-scoring shootout on Sunday. Over its last four games, all of which have ended up being wins, the Suns have scored at least 129 points. The Kings only scored 97 in their last game, but have also given up 126 or more in three of their last four contests.

Before getting held to 97 by Boston, who is arguably the top defensive team in the NBA, Sacramento had scored 112 or higher in six of seven games. So expect them to shoot better tonight than they did on Friday. The thing is, the Kings were on pace for another high-scoring effort, but only managed 18 points in the fourth quarter.

Both teams average more than 110 PPG on the season. Phoenix is top four in the league at 114.7 PPG. Sacramento is second to last in points allowed, giving up 115.7 PPG.

So this should be another big offensive game for the Western Conference leading Suns, who are just three wins away from clinching home court advantage for the playoffs. They won’t take it easy on the Kings and those last four wins have come by an average of 22.3 points.

The Over is 21-8 in the Kings last 29 games following a double-digit loss at home.

Michigan won by double digits on Thursday, but it was by no means easy against Colorado State. The Wolverines got off to a poor start and trailed in the first half by as many as 12 points. But a stunning turnaround after halftime resulted in a 75-63 win for the Maize and Blue.

The Wolverines probably can’t count on their second round opponent shooting 35.4% from the field. That’s what Colorado State did and it was even worse in the second half when the Rams scored just 27 points.

Tennessee shot 60% and scored 88 points in its first round matchup with Longwood. Now Michigan won’t be as overmatched as Longwood was, but the Wolverines usually aren’t that great defensively either. They are in fact just 77th in the country in defensive efficiency.

The Volunteers streak of holding teams under 40% shooting probably comes to an end here, however. Nine of their last ten opponents have shot 39.6% or less. Michigan shoots well, is 19th in offensive efficiency, and will make more threes here than they did in the first round game (4). 

The Over has cashed the previous four times that Michigan has been an underdog. Make it five straight.

The Oilers are hot and the Devils are not. There has been very little hospitality for the Devils on their western swing, as they have lost the first two games by identical 6-3 scores. Is it goalie issues or trouble on defense? It is not uncommon for New Jersey to struggle on the road; they are a very ugly 8-20 to date. Now facing the Oilers, it will be interesting to see this very young team’s response. They are not without skill on offense, scoring 3 each against the Canucks and Flames, but that 27th rated defense is a real poke in the eye.

The Oilers have won 4 straight in Edmonton, and are going for the home-town sweep on Saturday. They beat a couple of contenders, then beat up on a pair of under-achievers, scoring 13 goals in those two games. The Oilers’ defense is not that much better than the Devils’. A case in point: Saturday’s starter Koskinen gave up 5 goals against Detroit in his last outing.

It is very likely that the Oilers will outlast the Devils on Saturday, and they are a big favorite. I expect lots of offense on both sides. Take the Over in this match-up.

The Clippers are probably safe when it comes to landing in the play-in round, but they have lost five of seven with the only wins coming against the Wizards and Pistons. Things get no easier for them on Friday, having to go to Salt Lake City to face the Jazz.

Utah is a disappointing fourth in the West right now, actually tied with Dallas. They are 12.5 games behind Phoenix for the top spot, so forget about that. They are 4.5 back of Memphis for second and 3.5 back of Golden State, deficits that can be made up. 

In the last game, the Jazz put up 125 in a win over Chicago. Six of their last eight games have stayed Under, but the Jazz continue to score. They’ve averaged 119 over the last five games. That’s even more than their season average of 114, which is top six in the league.

So count on Utah scoring their average on Friday. If so, we won’t need a ton of points from the Clippers to send this one Over the total. LA averages 106.9 points per game, which would be enough if the Jazz also hit their average. 

The last three Clippers-Jazz games have all gone Over. There have been 230, 250 and 227 total points scored in those games. Something similar here? I think so!

Second seeded Auburn looks to avoid the same fate that befell its SEC brethren Kentucky (a fellow 2-seed) on Friday. The Tigers should certainly avoid the upset against Jacksonville State here as the Gamecocks did not even win their Conference Tournament! Instead, they got the Atlantic Sun’s automatic berth because they were regular season champs and the conference tourney champs (Bellarmine) were ineligible for the Big Dance!

But I don’t think I can trust Auburn minus all these points here. The Tigers have failed to cover five of the last six games, and despite bagging their first regular season SEC title since 1999, they were “one and done” in the conference tourney, losing to a Texas A&M team that didn’t even make the NCAA Tournament.

So let’s look at the total. Auburn averages 78.7 points per game and should have no problems getting to the basket in this matchup. 

Jacksonville State shoots 47.2% overall as a team and made 40% of its threes in conference play. Am I confident they’ll hit those percentages today? Not really. But they’ll score enough!

Auburn is 9-2 Over its last 11 neutral court games where the total is 135 to 139.5. That’s the way I think this one is headed.

A low total here, but rightly so. San Diego State has the second most efficient defense in the country and allows 57.7 points per game. Not to be outdone, their opponents for Thursday, Creighton, give up only 65.9 points per game.

Creighton made a run all the way to the Big East Tournament Final, solidifying its place in the field of 68. Along the way, they held top seed Providence to only 58 points. The Bluejays may have lost the final, but that was a 54-48 game vs. Villanova, precisely the kind of score we’re looking for today.

San Diego State’s last three games have seen 99, 121 and 105 total points scored. All three went Under. 

The Aztecs don’t score a ton. We’re talking about only a 61.3 point average when playing away from home. 

The Under hit in all five SDSU games on a neutral court during the regular season. Two teams holding opponents below 40% shooting for the year should lead to a “rock fight.” Take the Under

Only one of Philadelphia’s last five games went Over the total and that was the 116-114 win against Orlando, which went to OT. Had it not been for overtime, it would have been five straight Unders coming into tonight’s tilt. 

After winning the first five games with James Harden in the lineup, the Sixers have lost two of the last three. That’s after falling 114-110 at home to Denver on Monday, a game where they had a 15-point lead after one quarter but could not hold.

Speaking of holding, that is what Cleveland is desperately trying to do with the six seed in the Eastern Conference so they can avoid the play-in round. A 120-111 win over the Clippers Monday night definitely helped, but it took overtime. 

The Cavs are one of the better defensive teams in the league - especially at home where they are 16-4 in their last 20 games. At the Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, they are giving up just 100.9 points per game. The Under is 22-9 here. 

I don’t see Evan Mobley matching the production from his last game, which was a career-best 30 points. As a team, Cleveland has not topped 106 in regulation in any of its last three games. Philadelphia has not topped 110 in regulation in four of its last five games. Take the Under.

Neither of these two 16-seeds in the First Four are very good defensively. In fact, in terms of points allowed per possession, they are two of the three worst in the tournament. Throw in the fact that one of them (Bryant) plays at the seventh fastest tempo in the country and you’ve got the recipe for an Over.

Wright State has three players averaging at least 14.3 points per game - Holden, Basile and Calvin. As a team, the Raiders put up 75.5 points per game. Six of their last eight games have gone Over, including both wins in the Horizon League Tournament.

Bryant has the nation’s top scorer, Peter Kiss, who averages 25.1 points per game. As a team, the Bulldogs put up 77.9. They’ve won 16 of 17 overall and are a hot team.

The problem for Bryant is that when they leave home, they give up an average of 79.2 points. They allowed 111 at Houston! In the eight games where they were a ‘dog, the Bulldogs allowed 81.3 points per game.

Seven of the last eight games where Wright State was up against a team that came in averaging at least 77 points, the game went Over. Batten down the hatches for a high-scoring game Wednesday.

Neither of these two teams are particularly solid on defense, but the Red Wings have been futile, allowing goals in bunches, at a rate of 5 goals per game in their last 5 matchups. They have lost 5 straight and are a very poor road team. Their away losses have consistently been by more than 2 goals.

While the Oilers' offense has been relatively quiet by their standards, they did pot 4 against both Tampa Bay and the Capitals in their last 2 games.  Two wins against tough teams may kickstart their offense and there is no better place to break out than against the Red Wings on the road. Defense and goaltending have been issues for the Oilers, and the Red Wings are not without some of their own muscle on offense. 

While the Oilers should be good for a win here, my best bet is on the total. Shop around on this one , and take the total to go over.

Odd that two of the season's worst teams are 2 of the NHL's hottest teams in their last 10 games.  Even more odd is the new-found offense both teams have discovered; the Canadiens are averaging 4 goals a game, and the Coyotes nearly 5 in their respective last five games.  The Coyotes are playing on back to back games, and offense aside, these are still 2 of the NHL's worst defenses.  A close and high score wouldn't surprise me, and the total is a fairly average 6.  Take these  new offensive powerhouses to go over today.

So our first 16 vs 16 seed in the “First Four” pits Texas Southern, tournament champions from the SWAC, against Texas A&M-CC, tournament champions of the Southland. I expect this to be a pretty low-scoring game. 

Start with the neutral court setting. Texas A&M-CC played eight such games during the regular season and those averaged 138 total PPG, well below what the Islanders averaged home or away. All three Southland Tourney games stayed Under. 

Texas Southern played just three neutral court games this season, all in the SWAC Tourney, and two of those stayed Under. The one that didn’t was the Final, an 87-62 win over Alcorn State where the Tigers shot 55.7%. They won’t shoot that well on Tuesday.

Count on the Tigers playing sound defense. For the year, they are allowing a FG% of only 39.6. That’s top 22 in the country. They need to play that kind of defense because no one on the team averaged double figures in scoring during the regular season.

This is just the second all-time NCAA Tourney appearance for Texas A&M-CC and first since 2006-07. I expect them to struggle to make shots. Texas Southern has been in the “First Four” two times previously with those games averaging just 111 PPG. Go with the Under in this one.

Considering the Coyotes have the league’s 3rd worst offense, they have put up some startling goals-for totals lately, with 25 counted in just 4 games. This includes a massive home win against Monday’s opponent, the Senators. The Coyotes are on a tear, winning 4 of 5 and 7 of 10. The Senators did win 2 in a row, but have struggled in a big way in their last 10 games.

Forsberg, expected in net for the Senators, can be sharp in mostly losing causes, but gets little support. Today’s other netminder, Wedgewood, has struggled lately.

These two teams’ last meeting ended on 13 goals. Looking at the Coyote’s stretch of offense, and past totals when the Senators face other bottom dwellers, today’s total of six sounds like a safe bet. Take the Over in this match-up.

Two of the hotter teams in the NBA meet Sunday in Beantown as the Celtics entertain the Mavs. The home side has won five in a row and lost just twice since late January. There is a case to be made that Boston is the BEST team in the Eastern Conference right now.

No one will tell you Dallas is the best in the West, but the Mavs have won six of seven to remain a solid fifth in that conference. The one loss in the last seven games was a curious one as they fell by 30 to the Knicks.

I envision this to be a pretty high-scoring game. Dallas has been the top Under team in the NBA, but it’s a big difference at home (24-10-1) vs. on the road (17-14-1). Also, all but one of six Mavs’ games this month have seen at least 213 total points scored.

Boston’s last four games have all seen 217 or more total points scored. They shot very poorly from three in their last game and still scored 114. The three-point shooting will improve here.

The Over is 4-0 the previous four times Dallas has been off a straight-up win by more than 10 points. On Friday, they defeated the Rockets 113-100.

Carolina will play its third game in 4 days and its second in 2.  They played the Penguins in a back to back situation last time and still came out ahead.  Back up goalie Raanta will be in net.  He has been terrific in his last two starts, helped out by NHL's best defense.  The Penguins are favored, and would like to show better against the Canes, but the Hurricanes have had their number lately, beating them twice in the last month, and seem to be more or less impervious to fatigue. Home ice is no particular advantage to the Penguins; they've won more often on the road.  The Hurricanes have been particularly tough to score against lately.  They shut out the Avs, and have had their last 5 games go under. This game features 2 excellent defenses and a pair of very strong goal-tenders.  I prefer the total in this match-up, and I am wagering on the game to stay under the total.

The Blue Jackets were smoked by the Islanders yesterday, and are right back into it vs the Wild on Friday. The Wild will also be in a back to back situation. The Blue Jackets gave up 6 and the Wild 5 goals against. These two teams are top 10 offensively, but both would have be considered defensively challenged. The Wild have won a pair after a prolonged dark stretch, and are normally a very good home team. They now have challengers for a playoff spot, so motivation should favor them. They will play their back up goalie tomorrow. The Jackets will star Merzlikins, who has had very little support this season.

This is a perfect opportunity for the Wild to get that offense rolling. I don’t see Columbus being shut out twice in a row. Both teams have given up, on average, better than 4 goals against lately. Here is another match-up destined for the over.

The second SEC quarterfinal pits LSU (the 5-seed) against #16 Arkansas (the 4-seed). LSU won yesterday, 76-68 as an 11-point favorite over Missouri. Arkansas had a bye. 

The Razorbacks won’t be too upset to see the Tigers in this quarterfinal matchup. They swept the season series, winning 65-58 at Baton Rouge in January and then 77-76 in Fayetteville last week. 

In terms of the number of points scored, I look for this “rubber match” to be more in line with that more recent meeting. LSU has scored 75 or more points in six of their last seven games. Arkansas has scored 74 or more in five of its last six.

The thing about that last meeting ending up so high scoring is that neither team shot well from three. They combined to miss 38 of 49 attempts from behind the arc. Expect a lot better long-distance shooting on Thursday afternoon.  

LSU didn’t cover yesterday. They are 7-1 Over off an ATS loss. 

Columbus doesn't really "do" unders.  The Blue Jackets haven't won very often recently, but they sure can put the puck in the net.  They unfortunately can't keep it out with any frequency either.  Their last 4 games have all ended over 6.5, and all have been close, with overtime figuring prominently.

With a 9th rated defense and a 27th rated defense, the Islanders are rightly known as a "defense first" team, but that hasn't been the case lately, with just 2 of 8 going under the total. They also have a poor track record in their  last 10, and are not a strong home team.  They have flashed a bit of offense lately, and a game against Columbus offers a fine opportunity for some more.

I am more than a little surprised at the odds for Thursday's match-up.  Any time there is a 5.5 total involving Columbus, I am on the over, and you should be too.

Think there might be some bad blood here? For the first time since being traded to Philadelphia, James Harden faces his former Brooklyn teammates. Both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving will be on the floor for the Nets.

The 76ers are 5-0 in games where Harden has played. They have scored at least 121 in every one of those five victories. In addition to Harden, you’ve got Joel Embiid, who went for 43 points and 14 rebounds in Monday night’s 121-106 win over the Bulls.

The Nets got 50 from Irving on Tuesday as they snapped a four-game losing streak with a 132-121 win over Charlotte. Durant had just 14 points in that game. I expect a lot more from him tonight.

This total is on the move and it’s easy to understand why. Not only have the Sixers averaged 125.4 points with Harden in the lineup, but the Nets have scored 120 and 132 in their last two games while shooting 53% from the field.

Brooklyn is 2-0 Over this season following a game where they scored 130 or more points.

Texas has one of the top scoring defenses in the entire country (just 59.6 PPG allowed), but I expect this game with TCU to be higher scoring than expected. The Longhorns give up a lot more points when they’re outside of Austin. For the record, the Big 12 Tournament takes place in Kansas City.

Just to illustrate, when they’re at home, Texas gives up only 52.8 points per game. When they are outside of Austin, they give up 69.9 PPG. That is a big difference! 

Both times Texas and TCU played in the regular season, the game went Over the total. The second time, there were 141 total points scored. TCU shot abnormally well in that one, but Texas also missed 13 of 14 three-pointers. Whatever shot regression we see here from the Horned Frogs will be made up by the Longhorns being better from behind the arc.

Seven of Texas’ last eight games would have gone Over today’s total. The last five have averaged 136.4 PPG.

TCU is 3-0 Over in neutral court games this season. They are also 8-2 to the Over when the total is 120 to 129.5. 

Vermont is the clear class of the America East. That’s why they are 20+ point favorites in the semifinals of the tournament. While I expect the Catamounts to win here, that price is too high. Expect it to be a low-scoring game against Binghamton Wednesday night.

The ol’ Binghamton Bearcats were not even expected to get this far, but they upset the 3-seed, New Hampshire, in the first round of the tourney. They were 7.5-point underdogs and won 72-69. But it has been a LONG time since Binghamton beat Vermont. The most points they’ve scored in any of the L10 meetings is 63.

In two losses to Vermont this year, Binghamton averaged just 50 points. Both games stayed Under. Binghamton shot around 35% overall in the two games and was a combined 9 of 45 from three. 

Though Vermont put up 98 in its first round win over NJIT, that’s not a number you should expect here. In six of the previous seven games, the Catamounts did not top 76. They are averaging 74.7 PPG this year.

But the key for Vermont is that they’ve held the last six opponents all to 61 points or less. I already talked about what they did to Binghamton in the two regular season meetings. The underdog just isn’t going to score many points here, so the favorite won’t have to go all out offensively either. Take the Under

The Toronto Maple Leafs, once a shoe-in for the playoffs, are in big trouble defensively, Their goals-against have soared from a 2.9 seasonal average to over 5 per game in their last 4 games. Both goalies are struggling in net and they are missing a pair of defensemen. The Blue Jackets are in much the same boat with injuries, and also have the league’s 31st ranked defense.

Both these teams can put the puck in the net with regularity. Their last meeting ended at 7 goals, and the total has figured prominently for both teams recently. Look for a free-wheeling game with plenty of offense, and not much in the way of puck-stopping. Take the total in this one to go over.

Five straight Charleston games have gone Over the total. The last one was against Hofstra, who they’ll face again here in the quarterfinals of the CAA Tournament. I expect the Over trend to continue.

Last Monday it was an 89-84 Hofstra win. The teams entered that game knowing they would be facing each other again in the Tournament, The key for Hofstra is always forcing turnovers. They forced 28 on Monday, a season-high. While they may not force that many again today, Charleston does tend to be rather careless with the basketball on a regular basis, ranking 295th in turnover rate.

Charleston also plays at the fastest tempo in the country, so this game will have plenty of possessions. Over their previous five games, Charleston is averaging 84.4 points on 54.1% shooting.

Save for a head-scratcher against Elon, Hofstra has been scoring plenty themselves. They’ve topped 75 in six of their last seven games. 

This should be a really high scoring game. The Over is 17-4 in Charleston’s last 21 games as an underdog. Take the OVER

The Kings, on track for a play-off berth, are a very good road team and a strong favorite in this match-up in spite of an abysmal historical record against the Sabres in Buffalo. Quick will likely start but hasn’t performed to his long-time standard lately.

Another elder statesman is in net for the Sabres. Anderson, at 40, may have seen better days as well. He will face a lot of shots vs the Kings’ sharpshooters, and with the 26th rated defense in front of him, won’t get much support. The Sabres’ offense has been showing a little better lately, and the Kings have not been stingy, giving up 11 goals in a pair of losses, and 3 in a win against Columbus on Friday. The total has been 6 goals or more in each team’s last 4 games. I am betting on the over to continue on Sunday, but do shop around...

"Can't score,can't defend" sums up both the Blackhawks and the Flyers these days.  Neither team impresses home or away, and both are playing back up goalies.  Chicago has won two of three, and has good news on the injury front, with three players returning including the capitan Toews.  Looking at other matches against poor defensive teams, the total has been over more than not.  Look for more scoring than usual and take the over.

These are two teams desperate for a win. Alabama is only 3-13 ATS in SEC play and just lost outright, by 16, as a 10-point home favorite to Texas A&M. That same night, LSU came up a point short against Arkansas. They at least covered, which was their third straight win at the pay window.

Both teams are considered safe for the NCAA Tournament. Neither can earn a top four spot in the SEC Tournament, but today’s result will affect seeding. Expect a high-scoring game with Alabama involved. 

Despite shooting only 31.3% from three, the Crimson Tide is averaging 80.2 points/game this year. The problem is - when they get out on the road - they give up 80.5 points per game.

LSU has scored 75 or more in four of its last five contests. The Tigers lost the first meeting with Alabama, 70-67 in Tuscaloosa, but attempted only 15 free throws and made just nine. At home, they’ll get more chances from the charity stripe here.

Alabama is a perfect 6-0 Over as an underdog this season.

The Lightning were embarrassed by the Penguins and will be out for blood against Detroit on Friday.  Tampa Bay is a very good home team, and will seriously test the Red Wings' 30th rated defense.  Tampa seems impervious to a drop-off in back-to-back situations, although with Elliot in net, they will likely give up a litttle extra on goals against.

The over has figured prominently for both teams, but especially Detroit.  It is hard to forget that NFL-worthy score against the Leafs.  Detroit's offense is certainly better than their defense, averaging 4 goals-for per game over their last 7, win or lose.  Friday's likely starter Nedeljovic has had some very poor outings, but he doesn't get much support.  Detroit may be better rested, but i am looking for a rebound from the Lightning.  By all rights, this game should go over..

Incredibly, Loyola Chicago slipped to the 4-seed for the Missouri Valley Tournament. The Ramblers had a chance to win the conference outright, but lost on the final day of the regular season, 102-96 to Northern Iowa in overtime, then fell victim to tiebreakers. I think they should still be considered the favorite to win this particular tourney.

In the quarterfinals, they’ll face Bradley, who is the 5-seed. Neither team had to win to get here. Bradley finished the regular season at 17-13 SU overall, 11-7 in conference play. Loyola was 22-7 SU overall, 13-5 in conference play.

The two regular season meetings were both won by the home team. Loyola won 78-71 in its gym, only for Bradley to return the favor in a much lower-scoring game, 68-61. It will be interesting to see how things play out here in St. Louis.

This seems like a low total. Not saying that just because of how high-scoring Loyola’s last game was (and it was 85-85 at the end of regulation). But both of these squads’ games have averaged just over 136 points over the course of the whole season.

Loyola shoots nearly 39% from three and is 13-4 Over this year when the total falls between 130 and 139.5. They have topped 80 in regulation each of the last two games. Bradley should score enough here as well; they’ve gone Over six of the last seven times they’ve been an underdog.