Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-04-19 | Jazz v. Cavs +8.5 | Top | 117-91 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Jazz are the “better” team, but the Cavs are the “hungrier” team tonight. Utah enters off a 122-116 road loss in Toronto on Tuesday, while Cleveland comes in off a blowout loss at home to the Heat. Utah’s achilles heel forever has been its play on the road and that’s been no different this season either, going just 9-12-1 ATS away from friendly confines thus far. Overall the Jazz average 107.7 PPG and they allow 106.1. The Cavs average 102 PPG and they allow 111.4. Cleveland has lost seven straight though and clearly it’ll be risking life and limb to try and reverse that trend. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Utah is already just 3-5 ATS this year when playing with two days rest and only 6-8 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games, while Cleveland is 8-5 ATS this season following a SU home loss. Grab the points. 10* play |
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01-03-19 | St. Mary's +2.5 v. San Francisco | Top | 72-76 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dons come in at 12-2 and St. Mary’s is 9-6. The Gaels started slowly by losing their first four, but they’ve bounced back to go 9-6 to this point and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here. Tanner Krebs led the way in St. Mary’s most recent win with 20 points off six three-pointers. The Gaels come in averaging 113.4 points per 100 possessions, while allowing just 99.7 points per 100 possessions. San Fran may be 12-2, but it comes in off a 73-71 road loss to UC Santa Barbara. San Fran is scoring 107.8 points per 100 possessions, while allowing just 94.2 per 100 possessions. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but St. Mary’s is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU win of 20 points or more, while San Francisco is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss. Clearly the outright is possible, but I’m grabbing the points. 10* play |
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12-31-18 | Hawks +12 v. Pacers | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Atlanta has been playing well of late, most recently it defeated the Hawks 111-108 on Saturday. Indiana enters off a very satisfying 125-88 home win over the Pistons and I think it’ll get caught “looking past” its lowly opponent today. This is a big time revenge game as well, as Indiana has taken seven straight in the series, including both this year and last week’s 129-121 Boxing Day victory. But Atlanta is now playing its best ball of the year, having won five of its last six. Indiana has won four straight, but note that it’s still a terrible 6-9 ATS in its last 15 off a win by ten points or more vs. a division rival. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ATL is already 9-5 ATS this season as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range and 7-5 ATS this year in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent. Grab all those points! 10* play |
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12-31-18 | Montana State v. Northern Arizona -1 | Top | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither team is doing very well this year. Montana state is 4-7, while Northern Arizona is just 2-9. But after beating Southern Utah 92-62 this past Saturday, I think Montana State will take a step back here. Overall Montana State averages 72.7 PPG, while allowing 81.9. Northern Arizona averages 72.1 PPG and it allows 81.1. Most recently the Lumberjacks fell 86-73 to Montana last weekend. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Montana State is just 8-21 ATS in its last 29 after covering the spread in its previous game, while Northern Arizona is still 13-9 ATS in its last 22 at home and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 after five or more consecutive losses. I think the “hungrier” teams finds a way to get the job done here. Play on Northern Arizona. 10* play |
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12-30-18 | Lipscomb v. Clemson -6.5 | Top | 67-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Lipscomb comes in off a 91-66 win over Vermont last Saturday to improve to 9-3, but I think the Bison will struggle in this difficult non-conference road venue vs. the Power 5 opponent. Clemson comes in at 9-3 as well and having won three straight, most recently a 78-68 victory over South Carolina. Despite having failed to cover in five of their last six, I think the Tigers will take full advantage of this favorable match-up. Marcquise Reed is back in the line-up after missing three games and he had 20 points in the win over the Gamecocks. I think he’s a difference maker and I believe he’ll be a match-up issue for the Bison. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Clemson is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non-conference home games on the heels of a three games or more unbeaten streak. I’m banking on a blowout. Lay the points. 10* play |
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12-29-18 | Rockets -1.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 108-104 | Win | 100 | 26 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hornets were upset at home last night by the Mavs and I think they’ll be ripe for the picking here as well. The Rockets comes in off three straight victories, including over the Celtics most recently. Houston plays with revenge here as well after the Pelicans took the first game in the season series 131-112 in mid October. The pick: New Orleans is also just 1-5 already in the second game of the back-to-back scenario this season. Note that the Pelicans are allowing a whopping 124.2 points per game in the second game of the back to back this year. This one is going to be a blowout. Play on Houston. 10* play |
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12-29-18 | Kentucky v. Louisville +1.5 | Top | 71-58 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: After losing to Duke, Kentucky has won nine of its last ten. The Wildcats enter off a win over UNC last weekend, but I think they’ll finally have a letdown here. Louisville looks to defend home court and it comes in with plenty of momentum itself with three straight victories. To say this is a “revenge” game would be an understatement as well as the Wildcats have won five of the past six in the series. These teams are clearly very evenly matched, but after the extended stretch of great play, including the win over the Tar Heels last weekend, I definitely feel that this sets up as a letdown spot finally for Kentucky. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Kentucky is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games, while Louisville is already 4-1 ATS as an underdog this year. I’m banking on home floor being the difference. Play on Louisville. 10* play |
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12-28-18 | Austin Peay +12.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 65-76 | Win | 100 | 34 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Austin Peay comes in “under the radar” here. The Governors have won six straight and they’re averaging 78.1 PPG, while allowing 75.4. Austin Peay is lead by Terry Taylor who is averaging 17.8 points and 8.3 boards per game. Arkansas has won six of eight, but it’s not too hard to imagine the home side looking past its lowly non-conference opponent tonight. Overall Arkansas is averaging 82.4 PPG and allowing 70.7. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Austin Peay is 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games, while the Razorbacks are 0-4 ATS in their last four at home and 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games. As stated off the top, I think the Governors come in “under the radar” and while I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do indeed feel that the stage is se for a tighter battle than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points. 10* play |
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12-27-18 | 76ers +5 v. Jazz | Top | 114-97 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Utah has won three of four, while Philadelphia saw a two-game win steak end in a OT loss at Boston on X-Mas Day. Philadelphia looks to bounce back here in this difficult venue: “I look forward to watching us evolve,” 76ers’ head coach Brett Brown assessed last night. “We will learn from this. We leave disappointed, but I think there’s lots you’re going to point to and say it was a hell of a job, and we lost to a team that’s very tough…. The fact that the starting five for the large majority of the game was excellent. I though the spirit was great, the energy was great, but we need to continue to grow our bench, and to work with our starters to finish out the game.” Maintaining focus for the Jazz vs. the Eastern Conference opponent is a concern though in my opinion. The pick: Because take it for what you will, but the Jazz are still a poor 3-7 ATS in their last ten following a victory, while Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following a SU loss. Grab the points, expect a competitive battle. 10* play |
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12-26-18 | Hornets v. Nets -1.5 | Top | 132-134 | Win | 100 | 26 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Simply put, I don’t think that home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this matchup. The Nets once again come in under the radar here after winning eight of their last nine. The Hornets look poised for another letdown here after their two-game win streak was broke in a 119-103 loss in Boston last time out. Overall the Hornets average 110.9 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 108.2 per 100 possessions. The Nets average 109.9 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 110.2 per 100 possessions. The pick: Take it for what you will thought, but Brooklyn is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. the Eastern Conference, while Brooklyn is just 7-19-1 ATS in its last 27 following a SU loss of ten or more points. Kemba Walker is doing a hell of a job to keep the Hornets relevant, but I think he’ll stumble in this now difficult road venue. Play on the Nets. 10* play |
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12-25-18 | Hawaii v. Rhode Island -5 | Top | 68-60 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a consolation game in the Diamond Head Classic and I like the Rhode Island Rams to put the foot on the gas and run the home side Warriors off the floor once its all said and done. Hawaii enters off a 70-62 win over Colorado in the consolation bracket Sunday, while the Rams beat Charlotte 75-61 in their consolation game on Sunday. The Rams feature the more senior players and more talented line-up though and I think this depth will be the difference in the outcome of this one. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Rhode Island is still 10-6 ATS in its last 16 tournament games, while Hawaii is a disappointing 5-8 ATS in its last 13 as a home underdog or pick. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. 10* play |
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12-25-18 | Bucks -10 v. Knicks | Top | 109-95 | Win | 100 | 27 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: I got down on this one early and have a favorable line, but regardless, I think the high-powered Bucks are going to lay the hammer down from start to finish. The Bucks comes in off a 94-87 road loss in Miami, a setback which snapped a four-game win streak. Overall Milwaukee averages 116.9 PPG and it allows 108.5. The Knicks come in on the other end of the spectrum, having lost four straight, most recently a listless setback at home to the Hawks. The Knicks average 108.6 PPG and they allow 115.9. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight following a SU loss and 0-5 ATS in its last five at home, while Milwaukee is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 following a SU loss. This one has blowout written all over it. Lay the points. 10* play |
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12-23-18 | Pelicans -1 v. Kings | Top | 117-122 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pelicans will be eager to get back into the winners circle after a 112-104 road loss to the Lakers on Friday. The Kings enter off a very satisfying 102-99 home win over the Grizzlies and I believe they’ll suffer a predictable letdown here. New Orleans has dominated this series of late, including a 149-129 home victory in the first meeting this year on October 19th. Overall the Pelicans average 116.3 PPG and they allow 115.2. Sacramento is averaging 114.9 PPG and it’s allowing 116.4. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Orleans is still 11-6 ATS in its last 17 as a road favorite of six points or less. I’m banking on the Pelicans dominance of this series continuing. Play on New Orleans. 10* play |
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12-23-18 | Charlotte v. TCU -20.5 | Top | 57-82 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
Analysis to come. 10* play |
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12-22-18 | Stanford +8.5 v. San Francisco | Top | 65-74 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dons are 11-1 and the Cardinal are just 6-4 (SU), but I think the value is on the undervalued underdog in this one. The Cardinal have played a difficult non-conference schedule to this point, with three of its setbacks vs. AP Top 25 teams. Stanford though comes in playing its best ball of the young season with two straight wins, most recently a 78-73 defeat of San Jose State. The Dons have beaten Harvard and Cal, but beyond that its opposition has been much weaker to this point. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Francisco is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite in the 7 to 12.5 points range. while Stanford is 4-1-1 ATS in is last six as a road underdog in the 7 to 12.5 points range and 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 vs. teams with a win percentage above .600. Grab the points. 10* |
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12-21-18 | Grizzlies v. Kings -2 | Top | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Memphis Grizzlies are in a “free fall” right now and I think the hungry home side takes advantage. The Grizz have lost four straight and six of their last seven. The Kings enter off back-to-back losses as well, over the Wolves and Thunder, so they won’t be lacking any motivation here either. Memphis has been dealing with injury issues again to guard Mike Conley, as well as to forward Omri Casspi. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road and only 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. the Western Conference, while the Kings are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 when playing on one days rest and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. teams with losing road records. This line could easily be a lot larger in my opinion. Play on the Kings. 10* |
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12-21-18 | Oregon v. Baylor -3.5 | Top | 47-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: Oregon has only played one true road game this year and it was a 65-61 loss to Houston on December 1st. And that came on the heels of a shocking 89-84 home loss to Texas Southern. Bears fans can empathize. Baylor enters off an upset 59-58 home loss to Stephen F. Austin. Overall Baylor has been the better defensive team this year and I think that’ll be the main difference in the outcome of this one (note that the Bears are giving up just 63.4 PPG overall and they’ve actually held six of their ten opponents to 61 points or fewer.) The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baylor is 5-1 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss and 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss, while Oregon is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 following a SU win. Lay the points, expect a rout. 10* |
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12-20-18 | Ohio +16 v. Purdue | Top | 67-95 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Ohio is 7-3 and the Boilermakers are 6-5. The Bobcats come in off a narrow 63-61 win over Detroit on Saturday. Teyvion Kirk finished with 16 points and seven boards for Ohio, which would go on to outscore Detroit 30-20 in the paint. Purdue comes into this one reeling, loser of five of its last seven after a sharp 4-0 start. Most recently the Boilermakers fell to Texas and Notre Dame. Clearly the competition has been stiff, but I do think that the door is open for Ohio to keep this game competitive as well. Note that the Boilermakers shot just 9 of 29 from range in the loss to the Irish. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Ohio is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after a win by six points or less, while Purdue is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more SU losses. Grab the point and expect a more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. 10* play |
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12-19-18 | Grand Canyon v. Northern Iowa +1 | Top | 73-62 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are pretty terrible. Grand Canyon is 5-5, while Northern Iowa is 4-6. The Antelopes though are 0-2 in true road games, while the Panther are 2-0 at home. Northern Iowa average 67 PPG and it allows 71. Grand Canyon is averaging 75 PPG and it’s allowing 72. The pick: On paper coach Marjele’s Antelopes have the advantage. But I thick Grand Canyon’s numbers are skewed by the level of competition to this point. Take it for what you will as well, but Northern Iowa is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games following a two games SU/ATS losing streak. Play on the home side. 10* play |
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12-19-18 | Spurs +1 v. Magic | Top | 129-90 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Spurs have gotten back on track of late, most recently destroying the 76ers 123-96 at home on Monday. The Magic return home after knocking off the Jazz 96-89 in Mexico City on Saturday. Note though that this is a big time “in-season” revenge game for SA after the Magic upset them at home 117-110 back on November 4th. SA averages 110.6 PPG and it concedes 110.5. Orlando averages only 104 PPG, while allowing 106.7. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SA is already 6-1 ATS this year in trying to revenge a SU loss vs. an opponent as a favorite, while Orlando is only 14-26 ATS in its last 40 off an upset win as an underdog. Play on the Spurs. 10* play |
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12-18-18 | Buffalo v. Syracuse -3.5 | Top | 71-59 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: Buffalo is 10-0 and Syracuse is 7-3. The Orange will be motivated to snap the Bulls perfect record and I think the home side will deliver the goods. The Bulls return many of the players from a team that went 27-9 last year and which upset No. 3 Arizona in the NCAA Tourney. The Bulls average 112.5 points per 100 possessions. The Orange average 109.9 points per 100 possessions. The pick: Buffalo has been playing at an extremely high level, but there’s no doubt that this is a difficult road venue. Looking a little closer and we discover that the Bulls are in fact just 1-3 ATS in their last four after eight or more consecutive wins, while Syracuse is still 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home favorite of six points or less or pick. Lay the points. 10* play |
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12-18-18 | Lakers -2 v. Nets | Top | 110-115 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: I think LBJ and company will bounce back after a 128-110 road loss in the nation’s capital on Sunday. The Nets on the other hand look ready for a letdown in my estimation after their big 144-127 win over the Hawks on Sunday. The 144 points posted was impressive, but they 127 conceded to the ATL is unacceptable and won’t lead to success over the long-term obviously. LA averages 113.4 PPG and it allows 111.6. The Nets may have won four in a row, but they’re average 111 PPG and allowing 111.8. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Brooklyn is just 9-19 ATS in its last 28 home games vs. teams with a losing road record, while LA is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss of more than ten points. Lay the points, expect a blowout. 10* play |
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12-17-18 | Bulls +13 v. Thunder | Top | 96-121 | Loss | -102 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly the Thunder are the better team and I’m not going to try and convince you otherwise. I simply feel that the high-powered home side will get caught classically looking past its lowly non-conference opponent this evening. The Bulls come in with confidence as well after a big 98-93 road win in San Antonio on Saturday. The Thunder on the other hand look poised for a letdown here in my opinion after their 110-104 home win over the Clippers. Chicago will also be playing with confidence that it has in fact already beaten OKC this year, 114-112 at home back on December 7. From a situational stand point, I think it sets up as more of a competitive affair than what this spread would suggest. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games while OKC is just 8-17 ATS in its last 25 in trying to revenge a SU loss vs. an opponent as a road favorite. Grab the points. 10* play |
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12-15-18 | Clippers +6.5 v. Thunder | Top | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: I think that from a situational stand point, this one sets up great for an outright upset victory for the hungry Clippers. Oklahoma City looks ripe for the picking here after its 109-98 loss in Denver just last night. The Clippers are averaging 110.4 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 109.6 per 100 possessions. The Thunder lead the league in most defensive categories, but the unit looked “gassed” last night and I think it’ll struggle here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six in revenging a loss vs. an opponent in which it scored 110 or more points in, while the Thunder are still only 40-47 ATS in their last 87 vs. good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest. Grab the points. 10* play |
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12-14-18 | Florida Atlantic v. Arkansas State | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: FAU comes in off a 68-64 win over Mercer to improve to 72. The Owls average 77.8 PPG and they allow 68.4. Jailyn Ingram averages 19.7 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.0 apg. Arkansas State comes in hungry after falling 72-56 to Minnesota this past Saturday. Overall the Red Wolves are averaging 74.9 PPG and allowing 79.1, but a lot of that has to do with the level of competition in the early going in my opinion. Ty Cockfield averages 21.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.0 apg, 1.1 spg. I think home court will prove to be big here. The pick: The Red Wolves are the “hungrier” team. Take it for what you will as well, but FAU is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after holding its previous opponent to 65 points or less, while Arkansas State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after failing to score 58 or more points in its previous outing. Play on Arkansas State. 10* |
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12-13-18 | Eastern Washington +18.5 v. San Francisco | Top | 63-85 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The Eastern Washington Eagles are just 1-6 and the San Francisco Dons are 8-1. Clearly this is a major mismatch, but I think the home side is going to get caught looking past its lowly opponent, leaving the back door open just wide enough for the Eagles to sneak in through. Eastern Washington has lost three straight, most recently a 74-67 setback to NDSU, led by 25 points from Jacob Davidson. Overall the Eagles average 62.9 PPG. The Dons average 80.2 PPG and they come in off a very satisfying 79-60 win over the Cal Golden Bears. Can anyone say letdown spot? From a situational stand point, I think it sets up great for the underdog. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after two or more straight road losses, while the Dons are just 12-16 ATS in their last 28 as a home favorite of pick. 10* play |
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12-12-18 | Hawks +9 v. Mavs | Top | 107-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly the Mavs are the better team, but I think the home side gets caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent tonight. The Hawks come in with plenty of momentum as well, as they broke a four-game slide with a 106-98 win over the Nuggets on Saturday. John Collins had 30 points and 12 boards in the win. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Atlanta is already 5-2 ATS this year after playing two straight at home and 4-1 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in three straight games, while Dallas is just 1-3 ATS this year in trying to revenge an in-season loss to an opponent. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. 10* |
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12-11-18 | Colorado v. New Mexico +5 | Top | 78-75 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Colorado’s been rolling (7-1 overall and five straight wins) and because of that, I believe it’ll get caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent today. The Lobos are 4-3 and they’ll be focused and eager to get back on track after back-to-back setbacks at the hands of New Mexico State and St. Mary’s. The pick: Colorado is about to being a stretch of six straight games on the road and note that the Buffs are just 9-26 on the road the last three seasons. Take it for what you will as well, but the Buffs are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a road favorite or pick. Grab the points. 10* play |
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12-10-18 | Kings v. Bulls +2.5 | Top | 108-89 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Sacramento was a bad team last year and clearly it’s made big strides this season though. The Kings are 13-12, while the once mighty Bulls are just 6-21. Chicago has dealt with injury issues before the season even started though, so expectations going in were low. The Bulls have been getting healthier and they’ve looked better of late and I think they’ll catch this young Kings’ team flat-footed as they finish off their lengthy Eastern swing. From a situational stand point, this one sets up great for the hungry home side. The pick: Take it for what you as well, but Sacramento is already just 2-4 ATS this season after covering three of its last four against the spread, while Chicago is already 8-5 ATS this season as a home underdog. Grab the points. 10* |
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12-09-18 | Pelicans -1.5 v. Pistons | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pelicans have dominated this series of late and I think that’ll again be the case here (won three straight in the series, including a 118-103 road win in Detroit last Feb.) While the Pelicans are just 5-8 ATS on the road, they’re a solid 7-6 SU overall. The Pelicans average 118.1 PPG and they allow 115.9. Detroit’s lost three straight and it’s just 6-8 ATS at home this year. The Pistons average 109.4 PPG and they allow 109.8. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Orleans is 40-31 ATS in its last 71 after having lost two of its last three games SU, while Detroit is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after allowing 110 points or more in three straight games. Lay the points. 10* play |
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12-08-18 | Kings v. Pacers -3 | Top | 97-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: No need to overthink this one. The Kings come in off a very satisfying 129-110 win over the Cavs just last night and I think they’ll stumble in the second game of the back to back on the road. The Pacers also played and won last night (112-90 in Orlando), but clearly home court advantage in the second game of the back-to-back scenario favors Indiana greatly this evening. Note as well that Indiana plays with revenge after falling 111-110 in the first match-up of the season just last week. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Sacramento is still only 10-17 ATS in its last 27 after covering five or six of the last seven ATS, while Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last five after falling to cover four or five of the last six ATS. Lay the points. 10* play |
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12-07-18 | Thunder v. Bulls +9 | Top | 112-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Thunder are 16-7 overall, while the Bulls are just 5-20. I think the hungry home side though will catch the Thunder complacent and flat footed Thunder team which comes in off an epic come from behind 114-112 win over Brooklyn in their latest action, a game which saw Paul George explode for 47 points and a game winning three-pointer. Can anyone say letdown spot?! The Bulls are terrible, but they’ll be eager to break a seven-game slide, most recently falling 96-90 to Indiana. Lauri Markkanen played will in his second game with 21 points and ten boards. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC is still only 4-5 ATS in its last nine asa road favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Chicago is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 as a home dog in the same points range. I think OKC finally has a letdown here and while I’m stopping short in calling for the outright upset, this one has competitive battle written all over it. Grab the points. Bulls GOM. |
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12-06-18 | Iowa State v. Iowa +1.5 | Top | 84-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: Iowa State has won eight of the last ten in this series, but I don’t think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a deciding factor this time around. After four straight wins, including an 81-59 victory over NDSU on Monday, I think Iowa State suffers a letdown here finally. The Cyclones allow only 61.9 PPG, but I think they’ll have their hands full today against a Hawkeyes team desperate to avoid a three-game skid. Iowa has been a beast on the offensive end though, scoring 80.8 PPG. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Iowa is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four following a SU loss by 20 or more points, while Iowa State is just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 on the road. Play on Iowa. 10* play |
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12-05-18 | TCU -1.5 v. SMU | Top | 67-59 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s the 5-1 TCU Horned Frogs vs. the 6-3 Mustangs and in my opinion, this spread could easily be a lot larger. TCU has gotten healthier over the last two weeks, with the return of forward Kouat Noi and guard Jaylen Fisher. “[Fisher has] made our offense better without shooting at a high, high percentage,” head coach Jamie Dixon noted. “He has a real good understanding of where other guys on the floor are at. He’s one of our best guys at playing without the ball. His cuts and his movement, that’s what makes us better with him.” SMU has won four straight, but the level of competition gets called into question, most recently a 79-67 win over Oral Roberts. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SMU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten at home and only 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 vs. teams with winning records, while TCU is a solid 4-0-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS win. Play on TCU. 10* |
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12-05-18 | Clippers v. Grizzlies -1.5 | Top | 86-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: I don’t think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this match-up. The Clippers posted a 129-126 win over New Orleans on Monday, while the Grizzlies will be the “hungrier” team here after falling 103-95 in Philadelphia in their latest action. Note that this is a revenge game as well after the Clippers posted the 112-107 OT him win earlier in the year. LA is primed for a letdown here at the end of its tough four game road trip. Memphis on the other hand comes in focused and desperate after losing four of its last five. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is just 3-5 ATS already this season as a road dog of six points or less, while Memphis is 6-1 ATS as a home favorite. Play on the Grizzlies. 10* |
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12-04-18 | Kings v. Suns +6.5 | Top | 122-105 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The Kings are 11-11 and the Suns are 4-19. The Kings enter off a satisfying 111-110 home win over Indiana and I think they’re primed for a letdown here. The Suns won’t be lacking any motivation obviously after the terrible start to the year, most recently a 120-96 setback at the Lakers on Sunday. Phoenix took three of four in this series last year and I think it’ll keep it competitive here as well. The Kings average 114.3 PPG and they allow 117.1. The Suns average 103 PPG and they allow 113.7. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Sacramento is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight off a close home win by three points or less, while Phoenix is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 after falling to cover in six or seven of its last eight ATS. Grab the points. 10* |
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12-03-18 | Clippers v. Pelicans -1.5 | Top | 129-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams played last night, meaning that the home court advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The Clippers come in off a loss to Dallas and they look ripe for the picking. The Pelicans enter off a 119-110 win in Charlotte and there’s no reason not to think that they won’t be able to carry that momentum over here as well. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Clippers are already just 2-5 ATS this year as a road dog of six points or less, while New Orleans is 6-4 ATS as a home favorite and interestingly 3-1 ATS vs. the Pacific division. Lay the points. 10* |
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12-02-18 | UC-Santa Barbara v. Washington -13 | Top | 63-67 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The 5-2 Washington Huskies aren’t going to take the 6-1 UC Santa Barbara Gauchos for granted here. And that’s because the Gauchos have won five straight, most recently crushing Sacramento State 75-58 on Thursday. But the Huskies are the deeper and more skilled team from the Power Conference and I look for them to lay the hammer down here. Washington bounced back a two-point loss to Minnesota to destroy Eastern Washington 83-59 on Tuesday. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UCSB is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after cover four of its last five ATS, while Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five after covering as a double digit favorite. Lay the points. 10* play |
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12-01-18 | Warriors -4.5 v. Pistons | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Warriors come in off a 131-128 road loss in Toronto, a setback which saw star Kevin Durant score 51 points. Golden State has been struggling without Stephen Curry in the line-up, but the proficient point guard makes his triumphant return to the Association this evening and I believe he’ll make all the difference. The Pistons present the perfect opponent to get back on track against and test themselves as Detroit comes in having won four straight. Level of competition though has to be taken into account during the Pistons recent mini-run, most recently a victory over the lowly Bulls. Golden State averages 116.5 PPG and it allows 111.5. Detroit averages 111.8 PPG and it allows 110.7. Clearly the margin for error is pretty slim for the Pistons most nights. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 125 points in its previous outing, while Detroit is 2-5 ATS in its last seven non-conference home games as an underdog in the +3.5 to +7.5 points range. “The Chef” returns and the defending champs return to form. Lay the points. 10* |
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12-01-18 | Kansas State v. Marquette -2.5 | Top | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: K-State enters off a 77-58 home win over Lehigh, while Marquette comes in off a 76-55 home victory over Charleston Southern. K-State is a difficult opponent, as all five starters return from last year. Northwestern averages only 73.0 PPG, but it makes up for it on the defensive end by allowing just 56.3. Those numbers (especially the defensive ones) are a bit “skewed” though in my opinion due to the level of competition to this point. Golden State won’t be going down without a fight, it’s 5-2 to open the year and it averages 75.3 PPG, while allowing 65.4. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but K-State is just 6-15-2 ATS in its last 23 road games following three or more consecutive home games and interestingly just 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. the Big East. The Golden Eagles are 4-0 at home this season. Expect that unbeaten streak to extend. 10* |
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11-30-18 | Jazz +2 v. Hornets | Top | 119-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Utah enters off a 101-91 road win over Brooklyn on Wednesday and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. Charlotte took down Atlanta 108-94 at home on Wednesday. These teams split a pair of games last year. The Jazz average 105.3 PPG and they allow 108.1. Big man Rudy Gobert averages 15.3 points, 12.5 boards and 1.95 blocks per game.) The Hornets are averaging 114.9 PPG and they’re allowing 110. Kemba Walker leads the way with 27.4 pints and 6.3 assists per game. The pick: It’s interesting to note though that Utah is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 vs. the Southeast Division, while Charlotte is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record. With Donovan Mitchell back in the line-up, the Jazz are an entirely different team. Grab the points. 10* play |
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11-30-18 | San Francisco v. Stephen F Austin +9 | Top | 76-58 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The 4-1 Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks are 4-1 after beating St. Edwards 73-60 on Sunday. Shannon Bogues had 16 points. The Dons are 6-0 and off to their best star ever. Most recently San Francisco beat Dartmouth 84-65 on Saturday. Franke Ferrari had 19 points, four boards and seven assists. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but SFA is 5-2 ATS in its last seven neutral site games, while San Francisco is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven following a four games or more SU unbeaten streak. I think these teams are more evenly matched than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points. |
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11-29-18 | Pacers v. Lakers -4.5 | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pacers come in off back-to-back road wins and they’ll be playing without Victor Oladipo, their main offensive weapon. The Lakers have lost two straight after a five-game win skein, including a humbling defeat in Denver last time out. I think the Pacers go through the motions today and I believe “The King” will lay the hammer down from start to finish in this favorable matchup. This spread could easily be a lot larger in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non conference home games on the heels of a two games or more SU/ATS losing streak. Lay the points. |
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11-29-18 | Alabama +7 v. UCF | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are 5-1. Alabama enters off a 78-72 home win over Murray State, while UCF comes in off a 66-63 home win over Northern Kentucky. Note that this is a revenge game for the Tide after the Knights recorded the 65-62 road win last year. The Tide average 77 PPG and they allow 70.3. The Knights average 75.3 PPG and they allow 62.3. The pick: Alabama comes from the tougher conference and it’s loaded with talent. I’m expecting a battle between these two titans. Take it for what you will as well, but Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a raod dog in the 3.5 to six points range, while UCF is still 14-15 ATS in its last 29 after allowing 60 points or less. Grab the points. 10* play |
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11-28-18 | Virginia -3.5 v. Maryland | Top | 76-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: These two teams are both undefeated, but I think the Cavs unrelenting defensive attack will once again win the day on Wednesday night. Virginia most recently dominated Wisconsin 53-46 to win the Battle For Atlantis, holding the Badgers to just 2 of 11 from range and 43.8 percent from the floor overall. The Virginia defense is ranked No. 2 in the country, allowing 49.3 PPG. Maryland has been the beneficiary of a weak schedule to this point, with five of its first six games at home. The Terps do come in off an impressive 104-67 destruction of Marshall, but note that this is a spot in which Maryland has struggled in nightly. The pick: As take it for what you will, but the Terps are already a poor 2-4 ATS in their last six non-conference games and just 1-4 ATS at home overall, while the Cavs are 4-2 ATS in non-conference contests and 17-6 ATS in their last 23 on the road. Lay the points. |
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11-27-18 | Lakers +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 85-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: The Lakers are a team led by the best basketball talent on Earth, but which is still trying to find its identity on most nights. That’s understandable, as chemistry takes time to develop. Regardless, LA will be out to atone for a 108-104 home loss to Orlando on Sunday. The Nuggets on the other hand return home off a successful road trip and a 105-98 win at OKC on Saturday. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!” LA averages 114.2 PPG and it allows 112.7. Denver averages 109.9 points and it allows 103.2. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but LA is already 4-1 ATS this year vs. teams with winning records, while Denver is just 4-5 ATS this season vs. teams with winning records and a poor 7-13 ATS in its last 20 after three or more SU wins. Grab the points, expect a “nail biter!” |
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11-27-18 | Virginia Tech -1 v. Penn State | Top | 62-63 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: VT hasn’t started a season 6-0 for the last six years, but it can accomplish that feat tonight in its first true road game of the campaign. VT enters off a dominating 75-37 rout of St. Francis of Pennsylvania on Saturday and I look for it to carry that momentum over here. Four players have at least nine three-balls so far this year for the Hokies ash they’re shooting a solid 41.4 percent from range overall. VT is only 5-7 all time in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge, but it’s won its last two. PSU comes in off a crushing 59-56 upset loss to Bradley in the title game of the Cancun Classic and I think its ripe for the picking here. Overall the Nittany Lions shot just 4 of 27 from range in the setback. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Penn State is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog in the 0.5 and 6.5 points range, while VT is 5-0 ATS in its last five as a road favorite. Lay the short points. |
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11-26-18 | Rockets -3.5 v. Wizards | Top | 131-135 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston will be eager to return to form here after a 117-108 road loss in Cleveland on Saturday. Washington on the other hand looks poised for a letdown in my opinion after a 124-114 win over New Orleans on Saturday. But the Rockets have in fact lost two in a row on the road. Overall the Rockets are averaging 106.9 PPG and they’re allowing 107.9. The Wizards are averaging 112.2 PPG and allowing 117.2. The pick: Previous to their upset win over the Hornets, the struggling Wizards had lost three straight. Note that they’re just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 following a SU victory. Lay the points. |
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11-25-18 | Oregon State -7.5 v. Long Beach State | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Beavers are rolling. They return from a successful showing in the Virgin Islands State side with a 4-1 record. LBSU on the other hand has done poorly to this point with a 1-3 record. The Beavers feature plenty of talent and veteran experience, led by Tres Tinkle, who had a double-double in all four games in the Virgin Islands tournament. Most recently he had 32 points in the win over Penn. The 49ers lost 87-72 to Utah Valley most recently, with Deishuan Booker a lone bright spot with 17.8 points. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning percentages under .400. I don’t see Oregon State looking past this opportunity. Lay the points. |
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11-24-18 | Rockets v. Cavs +10.5 | Top | 108-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams played yesterday. The Cavs enter off a confidence building 121-112 win over Philadelphia, while Houston lost 116-111 in Detroit. This the end of a tough Eastern swing for Houston and I think it’s primed for another letdown here as well. Houston is only averaging 106.6 PPG, while the defense is allowing 105.7. The Cavs are averaging 103.4 PPG and they’re allowing 111.9. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Cleveland is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in the second game of a back to back after winning the first by seven or more points. No outright, but expect a competitive battle. Grab the points. 10* play |
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11-24-18 | Princeton -2 v. Monmouth | Top | 60-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Princeton has plenty of new faces from last year’s team, but I still think it’ll have more than enough to take care of Monmouth. Clearly these teams are very evenly matched, a sentiment shared by Las Vegas. The pick: The “edges” for this play though come in the numbers, as note that the Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last six as a road favorite of three points or less and 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. poor defensive teams which allow 77 plus points per contest, while Monmouth is a poor 7-12 ATS in its last 19 non-conference contests and 9-14 ATS in its last 23 as an underdog. Lay the points. 10* play |
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11-21-18 | Grizzlies v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Grizzlies are 11-5 and the Spurs are 8-8. The Spurs enter motivated after a loss to the Pelicans, while the Grizz look poised for a letdown after four straight victories. San Antonio has now lost five in a row on the road, but a little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered for SA to get back on track in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Grizzlies are still a horrible 10-27 ATS in their last 37 following a divisional contest and just 7-9 ATS in their last 16 after three or more consecutive victories, while San Antonio is already 4-1 ATS this year after allowing 115 points or more in its previous outing. Look for the Spurs to bound back and for the Grizzlies to finally have a letdown in this difficult arena. Lay the points. |
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11-15-18 | Valparaiso +5.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 71-83 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: WKU enters off an 86-71 home win over UT Martin, while Valparaiso comes in off a 121-65 victory over Concordia Illinois. This is part of the Myrtle Beach Invitational. The Crusaders averaged 70.4 points and allowed 68.2 last year. Ryan Fazekas leads the nightly charge and he had 18 points in Val’s most recent victory. Last year WKU averaged 70.5 PPG and it allowed 72. Taveion Hollingsworth was a standout in the latest win with 22 points. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Valparaiso is 5-2 ATS in its last even neutral site games and 5-1 ATS in its last six following a SU win of more than 20 points. Grab the points. |
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11-11-18 | Hawks +11.5 v. Lakers | Top | 106-107 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly the Lakers are the better team, but they have a tough game in Sacramento on Saturday night and I think its the opportunity that the desperate Hawks will need to at least keep this one competitive. The Hawks are just 3-9 overall and 1-5 on the road, but with upcoming games at Golden State, Denver and Indiana on the horizon, tonight’s contest against a tired Lakers team clearly takes on added importance. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ATL is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games following a three games or more unbeaten streak. Grab the points. |
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11-11-18 | Vanderbilt v. USC -2.5 | Top | 82-78 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are 1-0, but I think that USC presents match-up issues for Vanderbilt. It did last year when the Trojans prevailed 93-89 in OT last November. The Commodores play this difficult non-conference contest, but then they return home for a series of “cream puffs.” In my opinion, this sets up as a letdown spot for Vandy. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Vanderbilt is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after scoring 90 or more points in its previous outing. Play on USC. 10* play |
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11-09-18 | Detroit v. Temple -20 | Top | 67-83 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The Temple Owls were 17-16 last year, but they’re expected to take a step forward this season and they got things started off on the “right foot” with a 75-67 home win over La Salle. Detroit was 8-24 last year and it enters off a listless 89-76 loss to WMU in its opener. Things aren’t going to get any easier on the Mercy tonight, as the Owls love to get out and push the pace. The Titans lost three of their four top scorers from last year and I have a hard time seeing this year’s unit keeping pace with Temple. The pick; The Owls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven following a SU win, while Detroit is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU loss. Look for Temple’s Quinton Rose and Shizz Alston Jr. to dominate and lay the points with confidence. |
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11-08-18 | Clippers v. Blazers -5 | Top | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: LA enters off a satisfying 120-109 home win over the wolves on Monday and I think it’ll now predictably stumble in this difficult road venue. The Blazers continue to roll at home most recently getting the better of the Bucks 118-103 on Tuesday. The Clippers are averaging 116.2 PPG and they’re allowing 109.8. Portland is averaging 117.3 PPG an fit’s allowing only 107.4. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games against a team with a home winning percentage above .600. Lay the points and expect a rout! |
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11-08-18 | Siena +6.5 v. George Washington | Top | 69-61 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: Siena enters hungry after falling 77-67 to Providence in its Opener on Tuesday. The Saints would lose the rebound battle by a 31-23 margin. Evan Fisher was a bright spot in the setback with 11 points, six boards and three assists. Siena has a new coach and new faces, but its loaded with talent none-the-less. The Colonials enter 0-1 as well, but I think they come in dwelling on what could have been after falling 77-74 in OT to the Stony Brook Seawolves on Tuesday. George Washington lost the rebound battle as well 17-12, while also committing 17 turnovers. Arnalda Toro had 13 points and 11 boards. The pick: It’s a rebuilding year for each team, but note that the Saints are 7-3 ATS in their last ten non-conference games. George Washington is still reeling from the opening night loss and while I won’t call for the outright, I’m expecting an all out battle until the end. Grab the points. |
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11-06-18 | Duke v. Kentucky | Top | 118-84 | Loss | -124 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s the No. 4 Duke Blue Devils vs. the No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats and I think the SEC school will find a way to get the job done here. The Blue Devils were 29-8 in ACC play last year, while the Wildcats finished 26-11 in SEC action. Last year Duke averaged 84.4 PPG and it allowed 69.6. Kentucky averaged 76.8 PPG and it allowed 70.2. The picks: Duke may have the “flashier/bigger” names on its roster, but John Calipari’s team is loaded with talent as well and I don’t think they’re getting nearly enough respect here. Duke’s young recruits get their first real test here and I think they came up just short. Play on Kentucky. |
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11-03-18 | Pistons v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Detroit comes in off a disheartening 120-119 road loss in Brooklyn, while Philadelphia posted a 122-113 home victory over LA in its most recent action. Note that this is a big time revenge game for Philly after it fell 133-132 in OT in Detroit earlier in the year. The teams: This is the finale of a three game trip for the Pistons. Overall Detroit has already lost two of three on the road. The Pistons are averaging 109.9 PPG and allowing 110.5. Philadelphia is averaging 113.8 PPG and allowing 113.4. Joel Embiid had 41 points with 16 boards in the win over the Clippers. Note that the 76ers are now 5-0 on their home floor this season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit is just 11-15 ATS in its last 26 after scoring 115 points or more in its previous contest, while Philadelphia is 63-44 ATS the last two season in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. The 76ers’ revenge the earlier loss and continue their home dominance with another convincing victory. |
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11-02-18 | Wolves v. Warriors -11 | Top | 99-116 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The Wolves come in off an epic 128-125 win over the Jazz, a game in which Derrick Rose scored 50 points. Can anyone say letdown spot? Rose isn’t going to score 50 again for the rest of his career and I think the Warriors will look to take advantage of this tired visiting side. The Warriors are firing on all cylinders right now as well, as guard Stephen Curry is averaging a career-high 33 points, 5.9 assists and 5.0 boards per game. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after playing on one days rest and 5-1 ATS in its last six following an ATS victory, while Minnesota is just 8-20 in its last 28 on the road and interestingly only 3-7 ATS in its last ten after scoring 100 points or more. Lay the points and expect a blowout. |
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11-01-18 | Kings v. Hawks +2 | Top | 146-115 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: This one sets up great from a situational stand point. Sacramento has exceeded expectations to this point, sitting at 5-3 overall and 3-2 on the road. But after four straight wins and back-to-back on the road and with two whole nights off before a game at East leading Milwaukee, there’s no question in my mind that this finally sets up as a letdown spot for the visitors. Clearly the Hawks don’t have the same luxury, as they’re 2-5 and they’ve lost three in a row. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ATL is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after a three games or more unbeaten streak. Play on the Hawks. |
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10-31-18 | Pacers -5.5 v. Knicks | Top | 107-101 | Win | 100 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a great “situational” play in my opinion. After two straight losses, including a setback to the Blazers on Monday night, I think the Pacers come in focused on the task at hand here. New York on the other hand comes in content off a 115-96 victory over the Nets to move to 2-5. With three nights off before a two-game road trip, it’s also not too hard to imagine the home side getting caught “looking ahead” here. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indiana is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after a loss in which it scored 95 points or less. Play on the Pacers. |
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10-30-18 | Hawks v. Cavs -4.5 | Top | 114-136 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Here’s a fantastic “situational” play. The Hawks are in action on Monday night against the 76ers. Cleveland will look to take advantage and get off the schneid as it enters 0-6 overall, including 0-3 at home. One of those losses includes a 133-111 setback to these very Hawks just last week. The pick: The King isn’t around anymore, but I still think it’s worth noting that the Cavs are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 following a three games or more SU losing streak. The situation and the numbers favor the home side. Lay the points. |
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10-30-18 | Heat v. Hornets -4 | Top | 113-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a great “situational” play. Miami has been solid in the early going, but with a game at home against the Kings on Monday, look for the visitors to rest some of their starters in the second game of the back to back. Charlotte already beat the Heat 113-112 early in the year, but after losing three of its last four, I’m expecting the home side to come in focused on the task at hand. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine in the second game of a back-to-back when playing that second contest on the road. This one has “blowout” written all over it, lay the points. |
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10-29-18 | Kings v. Heat -8 | Top | 123-113 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a great “situational” play in my opinion, as I expect the Kings to have a predictable letdown here after back-to-back home victories. After beating Washington 116-112 they Kings have had two nights off and with a game tomorrow night in Orlando, this contest also sets up as a “look ahead” spot for the visitors. The Heat look to take advantage, they’ve won two in a row and with a tough road trip starting tomorrow night in Charlotte, I’m expecting the home side to leave everything it has on the floor tonight. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Kings have gone just 3-7 ATS in their last ten after two or more SU/ATS victories. Lay the points and expect a rout. |
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10-28-18 | Wizards +3.5 v. Clippers | Top | 104-136 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the Wizards will find a way to get the job done here. Washington is 1-4 SU/ATS and desperate for a victory after back-to-back road losses to the Warriors and Kings. LA on the other hand looks poised for a classic letdown here though in my opinion after its big 133-113 road win at Houston. And with a three-game road trip starting in OKC on Tuesday, it’s not too hard to imagine the home side getting caught “looking past” its lowly non-conference opponent tonight. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after back-to-back road SU losses. Play on the Wizards. |
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10-27-18 | Magic +9.5 v. Bucks | Top | 91-113 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: This one sets up great from a “situational” stand point for the Magic in my opinion. The Bucks have been on an absolute tear, but with a tough game in Minnesota on Friday, I think Milwaukee comes into this one “gassed.” And with East leading Toronto coming to town on Monday, it’s definitely not too difficult to imagine the home side also getting caught “looking ahead” as well. The Magic on the other hand come in off a 128-114 home loss to Portland, but they’re still 2-0 ATS on the road to open the year. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Orlando is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after allowing 125 points or more in a loss in its previous contest. Grab the points, play on the Magic.
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10-26-18 | Mavs +11.5 v. Raptors | Top | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this is a great “situational” play. Toronto has been on fire this year, opening up at 4-0 and getting fantastic play from the newly acquired Kawhi Leonard, who had 35 points in the most recent victory over the Wolves. But with a couple of nights off before a tough road game at conference rival and equally as hot Milwaukee up next, I think Toronto finally suffers a bit of a mental lapse on Friday night. After two straight home wins the Mavs came out flat in the second half of their game in Atlanta on Wednesday, but with a night off before a home game against Utah, I think the Mavs come in focused on the task at hand and catch the Raptors complacent. The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games following a four games or more SU unbeaten streak. Play on Dallas. |
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10-25-18 | Celtics v. Thunder -1.5 | Top | 101-95 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this one sets up well for the Thunder. Boston comes into this one at 2-2, as it’s so far traded good games with bad ones this year. It most recently fell 93-90 in Orlando. With a home and home set starting against Detroit on Saturday though, I think the visitors are going to get caught “looking ahead” to those more high-profile conference contests. The Thunder do not have that same luxury at all though as they come in having gone 0-3 SU and just 1-2 ATS to open the year. OKC has had three whole nights off though and they have two nights off after this contest before another one game against the lowly Suns. It’s now or never for the Thunder to start turning their season around. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three or more consecutive SU losses. Play on the Thunder. |
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10-24-18 | Wolves +8 v. Raptors | Top | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: Toronto has started off the year by going 3-0 SU/ATS. Minnesota is 2-2, but 0-2 on the road. The Wolves though offer fantastic value in an upset role in my opinion and while I’m going to stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do think the Raptors are finally poised for a bit of a mental letdown here. The pick: And that’s because note that TO is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games in which it enters on a three games or more ATS/SU unbeaten streak. Look for Minnesota’s deep and talented line-up to keep this one competitive until the final moments and grab the points. |
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10-24-18 | Mavs v. Hawks +1.5 | Top | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the “under the radar” Hawks offer great value in an upset role at home here. ATL is just 1-2, but it comes in off a convincing 133-111 road win over the Cavaliers. Dallas is 2-1, but off back-to-back victories and with a game at Toronto on Friday night, I do indeed expect Dallas to get caught “looking past” its lowly opponent tonight. The pick: It’s a great situational play overall, but take it for what you will as well but the Hawks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after scoring 130 points or more and earning a victory in their previous contest. Play on Atlanta. |
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10-24-18 | Nets v. Cavs -3 | Top | 102-86 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Cleveland coms in as the more desperate as it’s so far 0-3 to start the year, including a humbling 133-111 home loss to Atlanta in the most recent. With a road game in Detroit tomorrow night, the Cavs will clearly be leaving everything they have on the floor tonight to try and get off the schneid. The Nets are 1-2, but with upcoming games at surging New Orleans followed by a home game against the defending champs, I absolutely believe that the visitors get caught “looking ahead” to those more “important” match-ups. The pick: And take it for what you will, but the Cavs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games following a three games or more SU losing streak. Play on Cleveland. |
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10-23-18 | Kings +11 v. Nuggets | Top | 112-126 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a great “situational” play in my opinion. After their big win at home over the Warriors, the Nuggets are now 3-0 SU/ATS to start the year. But with a date against LeBron James and the Lakers on Wednesday night, there’s no doubt that this sets up as a classic “trap” for red hot Denver. And that’s good news for Sacramento, which is just 1-2 overall, but it’s been competitive in each game and it does enter off the convincing 131-120 road victory over Thunder, who had Russell Westbrook in the line-up. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Sacramento is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after scoring 130 points or more in its previous outing. I’m grabbing the points. |
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10-22-18 | Wizards +5 v. Blazers | Top | 125-124 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: This sets up great from a situational stand point for Washington in my opinion. The Wizards are coming off back-to-back home losses off Miami and Toronto. Clearly Washington can’t be happy and it’ll be risking life and limb tonight to get off the schneid (especially with a game in Golden State up next!) Portland comes in on the other end of the spectrum, slightly satisfied after back-to-back home victories to open the season, including a 128-119 Opening night victory over LeBron James and the Lakers and then an equally as impressive 121-108 win over the Spurs on Saturday. But with two nights off before an extended Eastern Conference road swing, I do indeed feel that this sets up as a classic letdown/look-ahead spot for the home side. The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Portland is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine following back-to-back SU/ATS home victories. Grab the points in a much tighter than expected affair! |
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10-21-18 | Hawks v. Cavs -7 | Top | 133-111 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a battle of “bottom feeders,” as each team comes in with identical 0-2 records. However, I think this one sets up well for Kevin Love and the home side to finally punch one into the win column (both SU and ATS of course!) The Cavs come in forces here, they have two whole nights off after this before another home game against the Nets. The young Hawks though are feeling the pressure after back-to-back road blowouts, most recently a 131-117 setback to the Grizzlies. But with three nights off before its first home game against Dallas, it’s definitely not too hard to imagine Atlanta getting caught “looking ahead” here as well. The pick: And take it for what you will, but the Cavs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine as home favorite in the -3 to -9 points range. Lay the points, play on Cleveland. |
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10-20-18 | Raptors v. Wizards +1 | Top | 117-113 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a great “situational” play in my opinion, as Toronto has an extremely tough game at home on Friday night against Boston. Washington on the other hand lost at home to the Heat in its Opener 113-112 as a 5.5 points favorite. The Wizards will be extra motivated here after that letdown and they catch a Toronto team tired on the second-game of a back-to-back. As mentioned above, I think this is a great “situational” play. The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Washington has gone 7-3 ATS in its last ten following a 1-point loss at home. Play on the Wizards. |
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10-19-18 | Knicks v. Nets -3 | Top | 105-107 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: The Knicks enters off a convincing 126-107 smash job of the hapless Hawks on Opening Night, but, I’m not convinced at all that the Knicks have suddenly “turned a corner” or anything. New York is still without star Kristaps Porzingis and several other key players and its achilles heel has been its play on the road the last few seasons. With a game at home tomorrow night against the Celtics as well, it’s definitely not too hard to imagine the Knicks getting caught looking past their opponent tonight. The Nets fell 103-100 in Detroit on Opening night, easily covering with the spread and I think they’re going to build off that performance in their first game in front of the home town crowd. The pick: Both teams improved in the off-season, but note I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this one. I’m on the Nets. |
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10-18-18 | Heat v. Wizards -4.5 | Top | 113-112 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: Here’s a great situational play. The Heat are in Orlando on Wednesday night and I think they’ll stumble in the second game of the back-to-back. Miami is an older team, which already is dealing with a few injury issues. Washington on the other hand will be opening up its season at home after a disappointing campaign last year. This is a big game for Washington to say the least. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Heat are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine on the second game of a back to back in which they are an underdog in the -2.5 to -9.5 points range. Lay the points. |
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10-17-18 | Nuggets -1 v. Clippers | Top | 107-98 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Denver improved dramatically in the off-season in my opinion, while LA definitely took a step backward. The Nuggets were led by big man Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap. The addition of Isaiah Thomas will compliment Garry Harris and Jamal Murray well. The Clippers six-year playoff streak came to an end last year. Lou Williams now leads the charge for the Clippers after DeAndre Jordan departed. The pick: Note that Denver has won three of its last four season openers. Note that Denver is also 5-2 ATS in its last seven on the road, while LA is just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home. Grab the points. |
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10-17-18 | Grizzlies +6.5 v. Pacers | Top | 83-111 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Grizzlies have something to prove after a disastrous year last season. Memphis is led by Marc Gasol (17.2 points, 8.1 boards and 4.2 assists) and Tyreke Evans (19.4 points, 5.1 boards and 5.1 assists). The Pacers pushed the Cavs to seven games in the first round and they’re led by Victor Oladipo (22.7 points, 8.3 boards, 6.0 assists.) The pick: The good news for Grizzlies fans is that Mike Conley is back at full strength and I think he’s going to be a big difference maker here. Conley signed a $120 million dollar contract just before getting injured and he and the rest of the Grizz will be out to send an early message. Indiana lost Lance Stephenson and I think the Pacers are going to miss his tough all around play. Look for Memphis to step up and take advantage. |
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10-17-18 | Heat v. Magic +2.5 | Top | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami is coming off 44 wins and it made it into the playoffs, only to get bounced by Philadelphia in the first round. The Heat didn’t get any younger, re-signing Dwayne Wade for his “Swan Song” season, along with disgruntled big man Hassasn Whiteside. The Heat have an All Star in Goran Dragic, but the guard has been hampered by injury the last few years. Orlando has a new coach in Steve Clifford and he’ll be leaning heavily on Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic this season. The pick: Vucevic was injured for most of the 2018/19 season, but he’s now at 100% health and ready to go. The Heat can’t say the same with all of their veterans. On Opening Night, I look for the home side to find a way to get the job done here. |
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10-17-18 | Nets v. Pistons -5 | Top | 100-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Brooklyn managed only 28 victories last year. D’Angelo Russell led the way with 15.5 points and 5.2 assists per game, but he only played 48 games. Allen Crabbe was a consistent bright spot as well for the struggling Nets with 13.2 PPG. Detroit was led by Blake Griffin with 19.8 points, 6.6 boards and 6.2 assists per game, while Tobias Harris averaged 18.1 points and 5.1 boards per night. The pick: Unfortunately for the Nets, both Crabbe and DeMarre Carroll are out with inury for the opener. Detroit though comes in at full strength. Lay the points. |
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10-16-18 | Thunder v. Warriors -11.5 | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: OKC was knocked out of the first round of the playoffs in the first round last year and many will point to Carmelo Anthony “not fitting in” properly which was the issue. Russell Westbrook and Paul George, along with Dennis Schroder and Nerlens Noel once again make the Thunder a team which most clubs would rather avoid on any given night. But the Warriors come in more stacked than ever this year and I’m fully expecting a healthy and focused two-time Champs to put on a show tonight. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the home team is 16-6-1 ATS in the last 23 in this series, while OKC is only 2-9 ATS in its last 11 in this match-up overall. This one has “blowout” written all over it. Play on Golden State. |
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06-08-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +5 | Top | 108-85 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the Warriors on the “money line” in Game 3, laying the larger price for what turned out to be a relatively easy victory in the end. In Game 4 though I’m predicting that the hungry Cavaliers will keep the final score much more competitive and while I wouldn’t in fact be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The teams: Golden State comes in averaging 47.9 percent from the floor in the playoffs, but only 35.6 percent from 3-point land. Kevin Durant led the way in the Game 3 win with 43 points, 13 boards and seven assists, while Stephen Curry though had just 11 points. Andre Igoudala would return for his first action of the series and score just eight points in 22 minutes off the bench. Cleveland is hitting 45.7 percent from the floor in the playoffs and only 33.5 percent from 3-point land. LeBron James predictably led the way in Game 3 with 33 points, ten boards and 11 assists, while Kevin Love did his best with 20 points and 13 boards. The pick: It’s do or die for the Cavaliers. Golden State now has a virtually insurmountable lead in this series and a loss here would change nothing to its odds in accomplishing that. Winning the NBA Championship at home in Game 5 in front of the home town crowd would be pretty sweet. Right? The Cavs though have been embarrassed in this series and I think they are clearly the “hungrier” team tonight. I expect Cleveland’s overall desperation to be the difference in this one. Grab the points. |
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05-27-18 | Cavs +3 v. Celtics | Top | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The NBA has to be thrilled that both conference finals are headed to a Game 7. The first of those two will be the Cleveland Cavs are the Boston Celtics on Sunday night. This series will need a seventh game to decide but the individual games have hardly been tightly contested. Boston's matgin of victory have been by 25, 13 and 13 points, while the Cavs have won their home contests by 30, nine and 10 points. The Celtics have yet to lose at home in the playoffs (going a perfect 10-0) but a Game 7 against LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers is different from every other test the young team has faced in the postseason. James comes in seeking his eighth straight trip to the Finals (four straight with the Heat and a current three-year run with the Cavs). Cleveland: LBJ stepped up with his team facing elimination in Game 6 on Friday, collecting 46 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists in 46 minutes to push Cleveland to a 109-99 win and put himself one win away from an eighth consecutive trip to the NBA Finals. He comes in to this contest averaging 34.9 in Game 7s, including his 45 to help eliminate the Indiana Pacers in this year's first round. King James" has averaged 34 per game in going 13-9 in elimination games over his career. He will likely need help but that help won't come from teh team's second-leading scorer, as Kevin Love (13.9 & 10.0 this postseason) has been ruled out of this contest with a concussion. Jeff Green (14 points) and Larry Nance Jr. (10 points on 5-of-5 shooting) stepped up in Love's absence but can they be counted on again in Game 7? Boston: The Celtics have won the first three home games in the series by an average of 17 points and already own a Game 7 home win under their belts in this postseason, after knocking off the Milwaukee Bucks 112-96 in the first round. "Best player in the game," Celtics head coach Brad Stevens said after Friday's game. "Special night tonight and special night in Game 4 ... I can't say enough good things about him." Added Terry Rozier, who has often found himself outmanned in a switching situation that left him on James: "We know LeBron is different than a lot of other guys, but we've got to get the job done." Rozier scored a series-high 28 points on 10-of-16 shooting in Game 6 after slumping to eight points on 3-of-15 in Game 5. SG Jaylen Brown had 27 points in Game 6 and is averaging 20.8 points in the series and a team-high 18.3 in the postseason. Rookie SF Tatum is right behind him at 18.2 PPG and was the one who collided with Love. However, Tatum was checked out by doctors Saturday and Stevens said there was "nothing there to be concerned about" with his star rookie. The pick: As noted before throughout this year's playoffs, the Celtics have never lost a series they've led 2-0. If fact, they've made it 36 and 37 straight with this year's first two rounds. |
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05-25-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -7 | Top | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Celtics lost prized off-season free agent Gordon Hayward in their regular season opener at Cleveland. Then, Boston lost prized off-season trade acquisition, Kyrie Irving (note: Irving's 24.4 PPG average was 10 points higher than the team's second-best scorer!), in mid-March for the remainder of the year. However, the Celtics are just one win away from reaching the NBA Finals for the first time since 2010 when they visit the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. The Celtics own a 3-2 lead in the Eastern Conference finals but while they are a perfect 10-0 at home, they are only1-6 on the road this postseason (including losses in Games 3 & 4 at Cleveland). As for the Cavs, LeBron James could be playing in his final game in Cleveland before his expected dive into free agency. However, it should come as nor surprise that "The King" is clearly focused on earning one more trip to Boston. "We're looking forward to having an opportunity to force a Game 7," James told reporters after his squad's 96-83 loss in Wednesday's Game 5. "It's up to us to see if we can come back here for one more." Also on the line is LBJ's consecutive Finals streak, as he has gone to the last seven, including the past three with the Cavs. Boston: Rookie SF Jayson Tatum scored 24 points in Game 5 for his ninth 20-point outing of the postseason. The 20-year-old is putting together one of the best scoring playoff runs by a rookie in NBA history with 312 points and he trails only Elgin Baylor (331), Alvan Adams (341) and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (352). Tatum led Boston in Game 5 but four others scored in double-digits, which tells the story of the Celtics' success this postseason. Tatum has averaged 18.4 & 4.3 this postseason, followed by Brown (17.8 & 4.9), Rozier (16.5-5.5-5.8), Horford (12.5 & 8.5), Morris (12.5 & 5.2) and Smart (10.2-3.8-5.0). Boston's defense was smothering in the Game 5 win. The Cavs were forced into 15 turnovers, as the Celtics changed their starting lineup and went big, inserting Aron Baynes for Marcus Morris but often playing both of them with Al Horford. The Celtics ended the regular season allowing 100.4 PPG (3rd) on 44.0% shooting (2nd), including 33.9% on threes (1st). Cleveland: James had 26 points, 10 rebounds and five assists while going 11-of-22 shooting in Game 5 but he downplayed interrogating questions about his level of fatigue (note: LBJ scored only two points in the 4th quarter). "I had my moments, but I think everybody at this point is tired, worn down whatever the case may be," James told reporters. "I was still trying to make plays, put our team in position to win." James topped 40 points twice in this series and six times in the postseason and has at times single-handedly kept his team afloat. That said, the Cavs will need their complementing players to step up. Kevin Love was the only other Cavaliers player who scored in double figures in Game 5, while the team's other three starters (Hill, Smith and Thompson) combined for just 10 points on 2 of 14 shooting! The pick: So where do we (I) stand? LBJ will need help but in the end, it is really all about him. This marks LBJ's 22nd game in which his team will be facing elimination. In the previous 21 games in which his team has faced elimination in the playoffs, James is averaging an NBA-record 33.5 points. He has played in seven of these with the Cavs dating to the 2015 playoffs, and not only is he averaging 36.9 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 9.1 assists in those games, he has scored 40 or more five times and Cleveland has won those four games. The last time the Cavs faced an elimination scenario -- which means the last time they had to deal with the whole "LeBron's last game" narrative -- was Game 7 of the first round against the Pacers. James scored 45 that day and the Cavs survived, although did not cover. However, the Pacers only earned that ATS win by making a meaningless three-pointer in the final seconds. Boston's been unbeatable at home but on the road....NOT SO MUCH! Make Cleveland a 10* play. |
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05-22-18 | Rockets +9 v. Warriors | Top | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: The Warriors were impressive in winning Game 1 of this series but the team's lackluster performance in Game 2 raised some questions. In particular, many speculated that star PG Stephen Curry, who averaged just 17 points and went a combined 2-of-13 from three-point range, wasn't completely healthy. However, the Warriors emphatically answered all of their doubters with a dominating 126-85 victory in Game 3. Curry found his shot during a third-quarter outburst on Sunday and finished with a game high 35 points on 13-of-23 shooting (on threes). Curry went only 3-of-11 from the floor in the first half on Sunday but then went 7-of-7 in the third quarter while scoring 18 points, sparking a run that put the game out of reach. The 41-point victory was the largest in franchise history during the postseason, topping a 39-point win -- 85-46 -- by the Philadelphia Warriors against the St. Louis Bombers on April 6, 1948 (that's a LONG tiome ago!). As Game 4 approaches, it's top-seeded Houston Rockets, who are now facing similar questions. They will attempt to bounce back from an embarrassing performance and even the Western Conference finals at two wins apiece. The Rockets scored 127 points on 51.1 percent shooting while winning Game 2 but suffered the worst playoff loss in franchise history in Game 3, shooting 39.5% (including 11 of 34 on threes) plus attempted only a modest 13 FTs. Houston: Head coach Mike D'Antoni told reporters he was unhappy with the way his team played in Game 3. "Played soft, actually. I mean, you can't do that with these guys. These guys are good."Houston not only shot poorly (see above) but the Rockets committed 20 turnovers that led to 28 points. "We weren't as aggressive as we needed to be," Rockets star James Harden, who agreed with his coach's assessment of the team, told reporters. "We started off the game pretty solid, and then we let them gain some confidence to end the first quarter. But just defensively, they didn't feel us, and it showed tonight." After scoring 27 points in the Game 2 win, backup guard Eric Gordon scored just 11 points on Sunday, shooting 4 of 13 (2-8 on threes). Starting forwards Tucker and Ariza combined fior 41 points in the Game 2 win but each scored just six points in the Game 3 blowout. Harden had 41 points in Game 1 but after scoring 27 points in Game 2, had just 20 points in Game 3. PG Chris Paul, playing in his first-ever conference final, is a woeful 5-of-20 from three-point range in the series. Golden State: Curry, who had missed 17 of his 20 three-point attempts through the first 10 quarters of the series, sent the Warriors' home crowd into a frenzy by making 4 of 5 in the second half Sunday. en route to 35 points. Durant had a modest 25 points but is averaging 33.3 points on 52.9 percent shooting in the series. Draymond Green continues to play the role of the "Great Disruptor," finishing with a modest 10 points but also 17 rebounds and six assists, while serving as the key to the team's much-improved defensive effort. The pick: The Warriors' 41-point Game 3 win gives them a 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven series but it also gave them an NBA-record 16 straight playoff wins at home. A key factor figures to be what I touched on earlier. Important members of the James Harden/Chris Paul supporting cast, Gordon, Tucker and Ariza, combined for 23-of-33 shooting and contributed 68 points in Houston's 127-105 series-evening home win in Game 2. However, they went a combined 8 of 24 and 23 points in the blowout Game 3. The loss was the Rockets' fourth of the postseason but they have rebounded with wins after each of the first three, romping by an average of 20.7 PPG. Of course, this time, they'll be up against a Warriors team that has been to three straight NBA Finals (winning twice). Take the points and make Houston a 10* play. |
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05-21-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-20-18 | Rockets +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 85-126 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Golden State Warriors took away the homecourt advantage from the Houston Rockets in their best-of-seven Western Conference finals with a solid 119-106 win in Game 1. However, while many seemed to think "that was all she wrote" for the Rockets in this series, Houston made a strong statement with a 22-point victory in Game 2. However, the series now shifts to Oracle Arena for the next two games, where the Warriors own a 15-game home winning streak in the playoffs (the streak has equaled the Chicago Bulls in 1990-91 as the longest streak in NBA playoff history). In a showdown of the league's two highest scoring offenses, the team that shot the best prevailed in each of the first two meetings. Led by Kevin Durant going 14 of 27 from the floor in a 37-point effort (plus Thompson's 28 points), the Warriors outshot the Rockets 52.5 percent to 45.9 in the Game 1 win. The Rockets then countered in Game 2 with a more balanced approach, with Eric Gordon, P.J. Tucker and Trevor Ariza combining to go 23 of 33 (69.7%), accounting for 68 of Houston's 127 points in the win. Houston shot 51.1 percent, while Golden State shot 45.9%. Houston: The Rockets didn't win 65 games (seven more than Golden State) in the regular season by accident. Houston sees an opportunity to take back control of the series and insists it is unfazed as it enters two straight games in Oakland. "The challenge is you're playing Golden State," Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni told reporters. "That's why they've won 15 in a row, not because of the building, but because they're good. I mean, everybody, all these players are used to playing in hostile environments or loud or whatever. I mean, it helps a little bit. Sometimes you feed off the energy also from the other crowd. So you try to take them out as soon as you can and take out the crowd, but they're a good basketball team." PG Chris Paul had 16 points, six assists and three steals in the Game 2 win while fighting through a calf issue that he says will not hold him back for Sunday's tilt. Paul has outscored Curry 39-34 in the series and been more efficient, but also has struggled from long range, shooting just 3 of 12 on three-pointers. After a 41-point effort in the Game 1 loss, Harden had a more modest 27 in Game 2 plus was only 3 of 15 on threes. Eric Gordon led the way in Game 2 by scoring 27 points while making 6-of-9 from three-point range in Game 2 after averaging just 9.7 points and hitting 5-of-18 from beyond the arc over his previous three contests. Tucker scored 22 points on 8-of-9 shooting in Game 2, after going 35 minutes without a field goal in Game 1 plus Ariza was 7-of-9 from the floor (19 points). Golden State: KD has been an unstoppable force so far (he's averaged 37.5 points on 55.1 percent shooting in the series) but Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson struggled to shoot a combined 10-for-30 from the floor. "I've gone 0-for-11 before shooting 3s and 1-for-8, whatever the case is," Curry told reporters Friday. "I always shoot that next shot with the optimism and confidence that it's going in. So, you can work on stuff between practices and games to get your rhythm, just seeing the ball going in and working on your mechanics, but [I'll] never lose confidence in myself. That'll never change." Curry is 2-of-13 in the series on threes and Thompson, after an excellent Game 1, shot 3-of-11 overall, scoring just eight points in the Game 2 loss. The pick: The Warriors lost just once in four playoff series en route to the championship last year (16-1), suffered their third loss of the 2018 postseason in Game 2. They have rebounded to win by a total of 34 points in the game after each of their first two losses. However, the Rockets had the best road record in the NBA during the regular season (31-10), and have won three of four on the road in their first two playoff series. "I'm feeling great," Curry said in the aftermath of the Game 2 loss. How do we really know, though. Curry missed Golden State's 4-1 victory over San Antonio in the first round of the playoffs and then the opener against New Orleans in the second round with a sprained left MCL. He has started the last five games but has been well below his usual high standard in the first two against the Rockets, averaging 17.0 points while missing 11 of 13 three-point shots. The Rockets have attacked Curry on defense, prompting many to question the former two-time Most Valuable Player's health. The Warriors will be hosting a Game 3 for the first time since 2014 and they lost that game 98-96 to the Los Angeles Clippers, with Paul contributing 15 points and 10 assists to the winning effort. Take the points and make Houston a 10* play. |
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05-19-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -6 | Top | 86-116 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Cavaliers have little margin for error after losing the first two games of this series at Boston. It's not so much that the Celtics won both Game 1 and Game 2, Boston is 9-0 this postseason at TD Garden, but how they won them. Cleveland dropped the first two games by an average of 19.0 PPG and even a monster Game 2 effort by LeBron James (42 points, 10 rebounds and 12 assists) on Tuesday couldn't prevent a 13-point loss. "We've got to be tougher, mentally and physically," Cavaliers head coach Tyronn Lue told reporters. "We've got to come out swinging. We've got to be aggressive. I think we've got to be physical, and we've got to have a physical mindset, you know, that they're coming in, playing tough. They're aggressive, and we've got to match that." That sounds good but the fact is, of the 300 teams to take 2-0 leads in best-of-seven series, 281 won the series. Boston surely doesn't want to provide a glimmer of hope,as the Celtics are well aware that LBJ has led his team to seven straight NBA Finals appearances (the last three years with the Cavs). The Celtics are looking to move one step closer to the franchise's first NBA Finals berth since 2010. "We're going to have to be really focused, really locked in, really consistent," Celtics head coach Brad Stevens told reporters. "It's even harder to communicate on the road. You've got to be great communicating." Boston: Shooting guard Jaylen Brown is back healthy and has been the team's highest scorer in this series with solid back-to-back 23-point outings (17.8 PPG in the playoffs, overall), while rookie SF Jayson Tatum leads the team this postseason at 18.1 PPG. PG Terry Rozier (17.4-5.6-5.6) has filled in for the injured Kyrie Irving admirably and veteran C/PF Al Horford is averaging 17.1-8.4-3.6 this postseason. PF Morris checks in at 12.9 & 5.4 plus reserve guard Marcus Smart (10.5-4.0-5.0) continues to be a presence on both ends of the court. However, he is just 7-of-21 shooting (33.3%) this series, as part of a struggling Boston bench. Also note that Tatum is averaging 13.5 points through two games of this series, after a franchise rookie record stretch of seven straight 20-point outings. Cleveland: It's always mostly about LBJ with this team but with Boston's starting backcourt of Brown and Terry Rozier outscoring the Cavs' starting guards 72-12, Tyronn Lue knows that can't continue. In particular, shooting guard JR Smith is averaging two points on 2-of-16 shooting, including 0-of-7 from three-point range. Then there is PG George Hill, who is averaging four points and 0.5 assists in the series. James was bothered by a strained neck after Game 2 but the extra days of rest figure to leave him near full strength. The Cavs are a veteran team but the bottom line is, only four players remain from the 2016 championship team (James, Kevin Love, JR Smith, and Tristan Thompson) plus Kyle Korver represents the only other current Cavs player on the 2017 Finals team that lost in five games to Golden State. This veteran group lost its composure in the second half of Game 2, blowing an eight-point halftime lead and missing all eight threes in the fourth quarter! The pick: OK, so where are we? Boston may be 9-0 at home in the playoffs but the Celtcis are just 1-4 on the road, with statistical drops in just about every major category when playing away from TD Garden. The Celtics are also a young team missing its two best players, Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward. Meanwhile, the Cavs are 5-1 at home this postseason, although they are a 'money-burning' 1-5 ATS. While the Cavs aren't what they once were (remember, Irving used to play for them), but organizationally they are the three-time defending conference champs. Remember that stat which said " of the 300 teams to take 2-0 leads in best-of-seven series, 281 won the series?" Note that of the 19 teams who've made the comeback, two were led by LeBron James. LBJ has topped 40 points five times this postseason and is averaging 33.4 points, 9.2 rebounds and 9.2 assists. "With a little help from his friends," LBJ's Cavs get back in this series with a convincing win. Make Cleveland a 10* play.
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05-15-18 | Cavs +1 v. Celtics | Top | 94-107 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-13-18 | Cavs -1.5 v. Celtics | Top | 83-108 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 38 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-09-18 | 76ers -1 v. Celtics | Top | 112-114 | Loss | -102 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Celtics have never lost a playoff series after taking a 2-0 lead (36-0 all-time) and in this series against the 76ers, won Game 3, as well. Yes, Philly won Game 4 at home to stave off elimination but both the 76ers and Celtics are well aware that all 130 teams which have fallen behind 0-3 in a best-of-seven series (including Toronto just losing to Cleveland in the 2018 postseason) have failed in their attempt to make a 'miracle' comeback. The Celtics were outplayed by the 76ers in Monday's 103-92 loss but the post-game mood wasn't overly somber. "It's 3-1, we get a chance to go back to Boston," forward Marcus Morris told reporters. "Nobody's head is down. We're all motivated. We're happy. It would've been better to end it (Monday), but so be it. We go back to Boston and play." As for the 76ers, they are still maintaining hope that they can become the first team to rally from a 0-3 deficit and win a playoff series. "This thing can be done," Philadelphia forward Robert Covington told reporters. "We've done it before as far as finishing the season strong so why can't we do this? We're playing against history, but we've played against history before so why can't we do something great?" Philadelphia: T.J. McConnell will draw his second straight start after posting 19 points, seven rebounds and five assists in 39 minutes in Game 4. McConnell started just one game during the regular season but he provided a tone for Monday's win by making 9-of-12 from the floor and not committing any turnovers, as part of Philly's three-guard lineup (joining Simmons and Redick). "He changed everything," 76ers center Joel Embiid told reporters. "He was pressing full court the whole time doing his job, running the offense, getting guys involved, making shots, layups." SF Covington came of the bench, while PF Saric had his best game of the postseason in Game 4, scoring 25 points and adding eight rebounds (he had averaged 12.3 points over the first three games of the series). Simmons bounced back from his one-point effort in Game 3 with 19 points and 13 rebounds, while Embiid added 15 & 13 (he's averaging 20.6 & 12.7 in seven playoff games). Boston: The injury-ravaged Celtics suffered another one in Game 4, as Shane Larkin injuring his left shoulder running into the wall known as Embiid. Head coach Stevens said Tuesday he won't know until Wednesday's shoot-around whether he'll have his backup guard. The Celtics were sloppy as their four-game playoff winning streak came to an end. "I mean, obviously, what did we end up with? Fifteen turnovers," Stevens said after the game. "The offensive rebounds were enormous for them, just the extra possessions. Neither team shot it great, but they were really good tonight." Guard Terry Rozier has emerged as a postseason hero with Kyrie Irving out for the year, but he will need to bounce back from his first sub-par game of the series. He had just two assists and scored only 11 points on 4-of-11 shooting in Game 4. Rozier averaged 22.3 points over the first three games of the series and has scored 20 or more points on five occasions during the postseason (18.3-5.5-6.1 in 11 playoff games). SF Jayson Tatum is averaging 23.3 points in the series and has extended his rookie franchise postseason record of consecutive 20-point games to six.
The pick: Boston having never lost a series in which it has gone up 2-0 in plus the fact that teams falling behind 0-3 in a series are 0-130 all-time, make Philly's chances at coming all the way back to win this series seem futile. Throw in that Boston is also 6-0 SU at home this postseason and it's more than fair to say Philly's postseason hopes are 'on life-support.' However, the 76ers can win here and still lose the series, so let's stick to this Game 5 analysis. Philly did not play well in Game 1 but had chances to win in each of the next three games, finally breaking through in Game 4. Note that Game 4 was not exactly Philly at its best. We haven't seen that yet. My bet is we will see that tonight, as Philly starts to make Boston 'sweat' with a win that sens this series back to Philly for a Game 6. Make Philly a 10* play. |
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05-08-18 | Jazz +12.5 v. Rockets | Top | 102-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston Rockets drilled the Jazz in Game 1 of this series but then lost Game 2. However, the league's best regular season team (65-17) rebounded with back-to-back double-digit victories at Salt Lake City to take a commanding 3-1 series lead." Houston is that good. Give them credit. They know how to control a game," Jazz head coach Snyder told reporters after a 100-87 loss on Sunday in Game 4. Chris Paul ate up Utah's defense with a string of short jumpers en route to a 27-point, 12-rebound, six-assist effort for Houston, his best game of the 2018 postseason. James Harden added 24 points, while center Clint Capela had 12 & 15, his fifth double-double in his last six games. The Jazz shot 38.6% as a team, including an awful 7 of 29 (24.1%) on threes. The Rockets are aiming for their eighth trip to a conference finals and their first since 2015, when they lost to Golden State, Utah: Rookie guard Donovan Mitchell is doing his best to be the leader on the offensive end (24.4 PPG in the playoffs) but PG Ricky Rubio has still not played in the series due to a hamstring issue. That's allowed the Rockets to key in on the 21-year-old, who was 8-of-24 from the floor Sunday as the Jazz shot a playoff-low 38.6 percent. Joe Ingles had 27 points in the Game 2 win at Houston but averaged just 10.5 on 34.8 percent shooting in the two contests at home. Mitchell and Ingles shot 30 percent and 34.8 percent at Vivint Smart Home Arena, respectively, with both missing 10 of 14 three-pointers. PF Derrick Favors was limited to 16 minutes in Game 4 due to a sprained ankle, as injuries have taken their toll on Utah. Houston: Harden and Paul get the bulk of the headlines but center Clint Capela's ability to raise his game has made Houston particularly dangerous this spring. He had 12 points, 15 rebounds and six blocked shots in Game 4 and is averaging 15.4 points, 13.0 rebounds and 2.6 blocks in the playoffs, all increases from the regular season. The Rockets are undoubtedly the better team and for the most part, have been the more aggressive team. Heading into Game 5, Houston has made 75 FTs to Utah's 55. Harden has made 36 free throws in the series, while Mitchell leads Utah with just 12. The pick: The Rockets would love to put Utah away here and move on to an all but guaranteed showdown with teh Warriors. However, a win doesn't figure to come easily. Utah's Snyder said after Game 4, "We missed 22 shots at the rim. We had our chances and didn't convert. Some of them were contested. Some of them were open. You're not going to get any better shot." I expect Mitchell and Ingles to shoot much better than they did in the last two games plus how can Jae Crowder shoot any worse? He was 2-of-17 from the floor over the last two games. after going 13-of-23 over the first two. As for the Rockets, despite a 13-point win in Game 4, Harden and Paul combined to make just 2 of 13 three-point attempts. For the series, Harden is converting on a modest 36.0% of his threes, while Paul is making only 29.4% of his three-point attempts. What's also to be noted is that Houston is just 20-25-1 ATS this year at home (including playoffs), as well as 10-18-1 ATS when laying 10-plus points. Make Utah a 10* play. |
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05-07-18 | Raptors +6 v. Cavs | Top | 93-128 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cavaliers have knocked the Raptors out of the playoffs in each the last two postseasons, as the Cavaliers won the conference final in six games over the Raptors in 2016 and swept a semifinals meeting last season en route to their third consecutive conference crown. However, the Raptors were finally the favored team here in 2018, after winning a franchise-best 59 game during the regular season. In looking ahead to another matchup with Cleveland, Toronto's DeMar DeRozan said, "Sometimes you have to keep it together, because there's nobody better than the guys you've failed with. You might not have accomplished the goal, you do understand how to regroup." Well, it's been the same old, same old so far, as once again LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers have the Toronto Raptors on the ropes after taking Games 1, 2 and 3. The Cavs now look to deliver yet another damaging blow in this one-sided rivalry by completing a four-game sweep Monday night at home. Toronto: LeBron James knocked down a running buzzer-beater to give his team a 105-103 victory in Game 3 on Saturday. "Our goal in the timeout was to trap him and make someone else beat us," Toronto head ach Dwane Casey told reporters of a play that will haunt him. "He split the trap and went 100 miles an hour down the floor and lost them. We just didn't execute. It was probably my fault that I didn't make it clear that we wanted to trap him and get the ball out of his hands. We had it started in the backcourt, and for whatever reason, we let him out of the trap." The Raptors couldn't contain LBJ (see more below) plus their task of winning Game 3 was made all the more difficult when leading scorer DeMar DeRozan struggled the way he did, producing just eight points (more than 15 below his average this postseason) on 3-of-12 shooting. That led to a benching of DeRozan during a critical portion of the fourth quarter. "It's extremely hard, extremely hard," DeRozan told reporters of sitting on the sidelines while his teammates made a late push. "I just want to be out there helping my team, way more than anything. It definitely sucks to be watching ... we've got to give credit to those guys. We fought hard and gave ourselves a chance to win." The Raptors made Game 3 close behind the efforts of Kyle Lowry, who scored 15 of his 27 during the comeback. Lowry is averaging 22 points on 62.9 percent shooting in the series. Cleveland: LeBron James is putting on a display this postseason that will be talked about for ages. The game-winner on Saturday capped a 38-point effort for the superstar, who is averaging 34.8 points on 54.7 percent shooting to go along with 9.5 rebounds and 8.8 assists during the playoffs. "I've been doing that since I was like six, seven, eight years old," James told reporters of his latest clutch moment. "Maybe even before that. There's a picture floating around of me beside a Little Tikes hoop with a saggy Pamper on and I was doing it back then and all the way up until now, at 33." However, maybe even more important for Cleveland's long-term outlook this spring, was the second straight solid game for big man Kevin Love, who had 21 points on 7-of-14 shooting and 16 rebounds (he had 31 & 11 in Game 2). The pick: Teams that fall behind 0-3 in the playoffs are 0-129 in NBA history, giving Toronto virtually insurmountable odds to come out on top against a team it cannot seem to solve. However, we are talking ONLY about Game 4 here and the Raptors can lose and still "get the cash! I noted before Game 3 in taking the Raptors that Cleveland did win both regular-season meetings at home with the Raptors but those wins came by a total of just nine points. Also, the Cavs were 0-4 ATS at home this postseason and a 'money-burning' 13-31-1 ATS at home on the year. After Toronto's Game 4 cover, the updated numbers for Cleveland are 0-5 ATS at home this postseason and a 'money-burning' 13-32-1 ATS at home on the year. Take the points and make Toronto a 10* play. |
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05-07-18 | Celtics v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 92-103 | Win | 100 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Celtics needed seven games to dispatch the Bucks in the opening round, as the home team won all seven games. Meanwhile, "The Process" was coming to fruition with the 76ers taking care of the Heat in five games. Making things look even worse for Boston was the fact that not only were the Celtics without Kyrie Irving (not to mention Hayward) but they had to open this best-of-seven series with Jaylen Brown injured. He had been Boston's top scorer against the Bucks, until getting sidelined during the team's Game 7 win over Milwaukee. Brown sat out Game 1 of this series but Boston was able to win that game with ease, 117-101. Then, with Brown coming off the bench in Games 2 and 3, the Celtics were able to rally from a 22-point deficit to beat the 76ers 108-103 in Game 2 plus earn an OT at Phiily in Game 3. The Celtics will now take a commanding 3-0 lead into Game 4, as the 76ers look to avoid a four-game sweep. Boston: The Celtics received 24 points from rookie Jayson Tatum while Al Horford scored the final five points of the game as they earned a stunning 101-98 overtime victory Saturday. Philly's Marco Belinelli’s jumper with less than a second left in the fourth quarter caused confetti to fill the air at the Wells Fargo Center, but his foot was inside the 3-point line and it only tied the game, then Boston rallied in overtime to win. The veteran Horford scored seven of his 13 points in overtime and had a key steal in the final seconds that snuffed out a chance for Philadelphia to win the contest. Tatum is averaging 24.3 points in the series and guard Terry Rozier continues to shine while leading the team in scoring during the playoffs at 19.0 PPG. Philadelphia: Joel Embiid scored 22 points and grabbed 19 rebounds (he's now registered five straight double-doubles in the playoffs) but the 76ers shot just 39.2 percent from the floor on Saturday, while turning the ball over in key situations. Rookie PG Ben Simmons did rebound from his 'ugly' Game 2 performance (one point, five turnovers) to score 16 while recording eight rebounds and eight assists in Saturday’s setback. “I have a lot of growing to do,” Simmons told ESPN.com. Shooting guard J.J. Redick is averaging 20.3 points in the series but PF Dario Saric is 5-of-23 from three-point range in the last five games, after draining 11-of-23 in the first three playoff contests. SF Robert Covington had just one point in Saturday’s loss, going 0-fo-8 from the floor. The pick: Philly is well aware that a series win is highly unlikely. It's been well documented that all 129 teams have failed to win a series after falling behind 0-3. However, this Philadelphia team has had a terrific season and I see them "winning one for the Gipper" here in Game 4. Yes, the 76ers are just 2-2 SU & ATS this postseason at home but they finished the regular season on a 21-1 SU run at home, going 17-5 ATS. Lay the points and make Philly an 8* play. |
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05-06-18 | Rockets v. Jazz +6 | Top | 100-87 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Rockets put their Game 2 loss at home to the Jazz behind themselves with an impressive display of basketball in Game 3 of their Western Conference semifinal series at Salt Lake City . The Jazz upset the Rockets 116-108 in Game 2 as an 11-point underdog to temporarily wrest home-court advantage from the top-seeded Rockets. However, Houston answered in convincing fashion when the series shifted to Utah, opening a 30-point halftime lead and cruising from there to a 113-92 victory. James Harden scored 25 points and handed out 12 assists, while Eric Gordon added 25 points off the bench (he had totaled only 22 points in Games 1 and 2, combined). Rookie guard Donovan Mitchell has taken a leadership roll for Utah this postseason but scored just 10 points on 4-of-16 shooting. Houston now looks to take a 3-1 series lead when the teams meet Sunday at the Vivint Smart Home Arena. Houston: Shooting guard Eric Gordon was a big factor in Houston's turnaround, as he made 8-of-13 from the floor in Game 3, after shooting under 50 percent in each of his first seven games this postseason. Also, the All Star duo of Harden and Chris Paul combined for 18 assists against one turnover in Friday's game (Paul added 15 points). Harden is now averaging 30.4 points in the postseason, identical to his league-leading average during the regular season. Houston is also benefiting from having made 59 free throws in the first three games of the series, compared to only 39 for the Jazz. Utah: "I didn't really do much as a whole, like I wasn't there," Mitchell told the media after Game 3. "That can't happen. That will probably be what I take away the most. It's like I would have been better off just not showing up, because that's what I did. I didn't show up at all for my teammates, and I'll fix it." PG Ricky Rubio (hamstring) has been doing some agility drills and light work on the court as he approaches a potential return but Utah also has another injury concern in the form of Derrick Favors, who left Game 3 with a sprained ankle. Favors, who averaged 12.3 points on 61.7 percent shooting in the first round against Oklahoma City, told reporters he hopes to play in Game 4. The Jazz also need to get a bounce-back effort from Joe Ingles, after he followed up a 27-point effort in Game 2 with a six-point showing in Friday's loss. The pick: Houston has now won all three meetings in Utah this season by double digits. That hardly bodes well for the Jazz but don't forget how well Utah played down the stretch, going 29-6 over their last 35 regular season games. This is pretty much a "must-win" for Utah, as a comeback from 3-1 against Houston would be h highly unlikely. Take the home dog Jazz and make Utah a 10* play. |
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05-05-18 | Raptors +5 v. Cavs | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cavaliers have knocked the Raptors out of the playoffs in each the last two postseasons, as the Cavaliers won the conference final in six games over the Raptors in 2016 and swept a semifinals meeting last season en route to their third consecutive conference crown. However, the Raptors were finally the favored team here in 2018, after winning a franchise-best 59 game during the regular season. In looking ahead to another matchup with Cleveland, Toronto's DeMar DeRozan said, "Sometimes you have to keep it together, because there's nobody better than the guys you've failed with. You might not have accomplished the goal, you do understand how to regroup." Well, it's been the same old, same old so far, as once again LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers have the Toronto Raptors on the ropes after taking Games 1 and 2 in Toronto. The Cavs now look to deliver another damaging blow in the one-sided rivalry when the teams meet for Game 3 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series on Saturday. Toronto: As noted, the Raptors won a franchise-record 59 games during the regular season to earn the top seed in the East for the first time but the Raptors are down 0-2 and Toronto is searching for answers as it heads to Cleveland. DeRozan had 24 points and Kyle Lowry 21, as the Raptors shot 54.3 percent as a team but they offered little resistance at the other end (the Cavs shot 59.5%) while forcing just three turnovers, giving the Cavaliers a 24-8 advantage in that category this series. Toronto has been outscored 34-8 in points off turnovers (Cleveland set a franchise record with just three turnovers in a 128-110 win in Game 2), and by 12 points in the fourth quarter. DeRozan is 0-for-13 from three-point range over his last three games, plus after putting up a double-double in Toronto's first playoff game of 2018 (23 & 12), PF Ibaka has averaged 5.9 & 5.4 over his last seven games. Cleveland: James had 43 points, eight rebounds and 14 assists in Game 2 and hasn't needed much help during the playoffs. However, he was given a boost in Game 2 with a breakout effort from big man Kevin Love. After averaging 10.9 points on 31.9 percent shooting through the first eight playoff games, the veteran had 31 points on 11-of-21 shooting in Thursday's win, plus added 11 rebounds. James has scored at least 44 points in each of his last three playoff home games, so it will be up to the Raptors to change the narrative in Game 3. The pick: Is that possible? Sure. Note that Cleveland did win both regular-season meetings at home with the Raptors but those wins came by a total of just nine points. The Cavs are 0-4 ATS at home this postseason and are now a 'money-burning' 13-31-1 ATS at home on the year. Make Toronto a 10* play. |
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05-03-18 | Cavs +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 128-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cavaliers have knocked the Raptors out of the playoffs in each the last two postseasons, as the Cavaliers won the conference final in six games over the Raptors in 2016 and swept a semifinals meeting last season en route to their third consecutive conference crown. However, the Raptors were finally the favored team in 2018, as the teams met for Game 1 of this year's Eastern Conference semifinal series. If Game 1 is an indication, nothing much has changed. LeBron James and his Cleveland Cavaliers once again got the better of the Toronto Raptors, winning 113-112. The Cavaliers will now attempt to maintain their postseason dominance over the Raptors with a chance tonight to take a commanding 2-0 series lead, before heading back home for Games 3 and 4. Cleveland: LBJ recorded his 21st career playoff triple-double (26-11-13) as Cleveland erased a 13-point deficit in the second half and survived multiple chances for the Raptors to win late in regulation and again in the closing seconds of overtime. JR Smith (20) and Kyle Korver (19) came up big for the Cavs, who never once led in regulation. The Cavs take the court tonight having won nine of 11 playoff meetings with the Raptors over the last three postseasons. One reason being, that Cleveland has hit at least 13 three-pointers in all five playoff games against Toronto over the last two seasons. Toronto: "A lot of things, we did to ourselves," head coach Dwane Casey told the media after the game. "I think we're a better team. We just didn't make the shots down the stretch. I know it sounds simplistic, but we had our open looks, had our opportunities, that we didn't cash in on, and some other things we could clean up defensively." Toronto has certainly heard all the talk of being owned by Cleveland and it seemed to lose its mental edge when the Cavaliers made things tight down the stretch on Tuesday. That said, center Jonas Valanciunas had 21 points and 21 rebounds to become the first player in franchise history with at least 20 points and 20 rebounds in a postseason game. However, the Raptors also committed 14 turnovers that led to 21 points for Cleveland, while forcing just six TOs. The pick: The Raptors changed their approach in Game 1, trying for a more balanced attack and creating an athletic and effective bench. Why not, after being eliminated two years in a row by the Cleveland Cavaliers? However, the more things change, the more they stay the same. For as much as the Raptors controlled Game 1 at the Air Canada Centre, they could not close it out (note: the Raptors missed their final 11 field goal attempts in regulation!) and the Cavaliers eked out a 113-112 overtime victory. The Raptors shot 32.1 percent from beyond the arc (9-for-28) and while they shot 42.9 percent (39-for-91) from the floor overall, they shot only 20.8 percent (9-for-24) in the fourth quarter. I had Cleveland in Game 1 and will take the points again here, in Game 2. Make Cleveland a 10* play. |