Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-19-23 | Nets -1 v. Suns | Top | 112-117 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
You can watch this one on TNT. After essentially “punting” on the game in San Antonio Tuesday, the Nets should bounce back here against a Phoenix team that’s even more short-handed. Already without Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving did not play against the Spurs. The result was an embarrassing 106-98 loss to what I consider to be the worst team in the league. Since Durant went down, the Nets’ offensive numbers have gone in the toilet. They’re averaging fewer than 100 points over the last three contests. But Irving is probable to go here. We don’t know exactly who WON’T be going for Phoenix. Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Cameron Payne, Cameron Johnson, Jae Crowder, Josk Okogie and Landry Shamet are all on the injured list. But of the seven, only Paul and Johnson have a chance of playing here. The Suns have won just once in their last 10 games and this is the first game back home after a four-game trip, a spot we typically see teams struggle in. 10* |
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01-19-23 | William & Mary v. Delaware -6 | Top | 53-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Delaware looks to halt a two-game losing skid here as it hosts William & Mary in Thursday night CAA action. The good news (for the Blue Hens) is they’re back home. The two straight losses both came on the road, at Hofstra and at Northeastern, the latter by just a single point in a game they led by 12 at the half. Now the Blue Hens have been without Jameer Nelson Jr for the last four games and are just 1-3 with the lone win coming against Towson. Nelson is questionable to return here, but I still like the home team regardless. Note all three losses without Nelson came on the road. William & Mary is also off a loss, and a humbling one at that, as they were beaten 82-54 at Charleston. Now there’s no shame in losing to a team that’s 19-1 and the “flag bearer” for your conference. But getting beat by 28 is another thing entirely. Going back to the start of December. W&M is 5-6 SU overall. But three of the wins came by three points or less and another was over a non-DI team. All five losses, meanwhile, were by double digits. With or without Nelson, look for the Blue Hens to blow out the Tribe. 10* |
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01-18-23 | Hawks v. Mavs -3.5 | Top | 130-122 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
Remember when Atlanta drafted Luka Doncic, then immediately traded him to Dallas in exchange for Trae Young? OOPS! The Hawks probably regret that move, this season more than ever, as Doncic is putting in a MVP-caliber season while Young has seemingly lost the ability to shoot from three. There are 35 NBA players that have attempted at least 250 three-pointers this season. Young is 33rd in 3PT% (at 32.5). Now the Hawks do come into Dallas on a three-game win streak. They beat Indiana, Toronto and Miami over a four-day stretch, the first two coming on the road. But the only other time this season that the Hawks found themselves on a three-game win streak, they went out and lost the next game, by six at Utah. Dallas should be glad to be back home after a five-game road trip where they went 1-4. They are 16-6 SU at home and while only 8-11-3 ATS, this is a short number that I’m not really worried about. The Mavs have won & covered each of the last three times they’ve been off back to back losses. Only once all season have they lost more than two in a row. 10* |
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01-18-23 | Duquesne v. St Bonaventure +1.5 | Top | 56-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
For this A-10 matchup, we’ve got two teams that have been covering the spread quite a bit lately. Duquesne is 7-1 ATS its last eight games, the only non-cover coming against Dayton where the Dukes were eight-point road underdogs and lost by 12. St. Bonaventure is 4-1 ATS over its last five games, also winning three of those straight up. Obviously, the Bonnies have been the less successful team overall this year, but they come into this one sporting an 8-1 SU record at home. They are also 8-1 ATS here. The lone home loss came back on 12/13 to Florida Gulf Coast, as a 3.5-point favorite. Saturday saw the Bonnies defeat Richmond, 71-63, as they outscored their opponents 48-34 in the second half. I don’t like this spot at all for Duquesne as they are playing a third straight road game. They lost at Richmond the previous Saturday before winning at St. Joe’s last Wednesday. Despite the rest advantage, the Dukes face a daunting task trying to win here at the Reilly Center. They opened as the favorite, something I disagree with, considering they have just one true road win. St. Bonaventure also holds teams to an average of 62.8 points and 40.2% shooting here at home. 8* |
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01-18-23 | TCU v. West Virginia -2 | Top | 65-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
WVU is DESPERATE for a win tonight. The Mountaineers are 0-5 to start Big 12 play, which was tied for last (until Texas Tech lost Tuesday). But they’ve been in almost every game, save for the one against Kansas. The other four conference losses have all been by seven points or less. Saturday saw West Virginia lose by one at Oklahoma. They at least got the cover, as 3.5 point underdogs, when Seth Wilson made a “meaningless” three right before the buzzer. TCU is probably feeling pretty good about itself after smashing Kansas State over the weekend. But this looks like a bit of a letdown spot for a Horned Frogs team that is just 5-10 SU off a conference win the last three seasons. West Virginia has one of the best home court advantages in the country, yet has lost two straight in Morgantown. Can’t see them losing three straight. TCU’s three-point shooting issues (below 29% for the season) become a problem more so on the road. WVU is 9-1 SU as a favorite this year and I’m laying the short number here. 10* |
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01-17-23 | Nets -6 v. Spurs | Top | 98-106 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
Yes, Brooklyn is without Kevin Durant. But if there’s a worse team in the NBA than San Antonio, I’m not aware of them. The Spurs have been outscored by 9.1 points/game (worst in the league), 8.7 points per 100 possession (29th out of 30), own the worst defensive rating and are 28th on offense.
Overall, the Spurs have dropped five straight and eight of nine coming into Tuesday.
The Nets have lost two in a row without Durant, but held the lead going into the 4Q Sunday vs. OKC. They were ultimately doomed by shooting 29% from three.
But this has “get right game” written all over it for Brooklyn, who beat the Spurs by 36 earlier this month. Durant did have 25 points in that win, but also played just 29 minutes. The Nets still have Kyrie Irving and also got 23 points from Seth Curry off the bench on Sunday. Two other starters finished in double figures. There’s enough firepower on hand to beat the lowly Spurs. 10* |
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01-17-23 | Illinois-Chicago v. Valparaiso -2 | Top | 66-76 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
Valparaiso is not having a good season. The BEACONS are just 1-7 in Missouri Valley games. But so are their Tuesday opponents, UIC. The difference here is Valpo is coming off its first conference win while UIC has lost five in a row. The Beacons beat Evansville, who are the worst team in the MVC. But UIC isn’t much better. The Flames may play fast (84th in tempo), but they aren’t efficient on offense (325th). The defense isn’t any good either (206th). Five of UIC’s seven conference losses have been by at least 13 points. The two that weren’t both came at home. Being at home tonight should motivate Valpo. They haven’t won here since 12/21. Saturday’s win was at Evansville. Valpo is probably in store for some positive regression in terms of three-point shooting. They are below 30% from the year. It’s hard to imagine staying that bad for a full season. 10* |
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01-16-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Western Kentucky +4.5 | Top | 76-62 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
FAU is 16-1 with the nation’s second longest win streak, but they have been a very lucky team so far, particularly of late. The Owls’ last five wins have all come by four points or less, four of them by that exact margin. I don’t think they can continue winning like this.
Hosting North Texas on Saturday, Florida Atlantic trailed at the half. That was after needing overtime to get by FIU earlier in the week.
Western Kentucky had been one of the most disappointing teams in the country, but the Hilltoppers have rallied for a three-game SU/ATS win streak, including an impressive victory at UAB. This despite HC Rick Stansbury being away from the team.
FAU has not had an easy time winning at WKU through the years. They’ve dropped 9 of the previous 12 visits. Those were different teams obviously, but the Hilltoppers have always been a strong home team. The only other time they’ve been a home dog this year, WKU pushed, losing by four to North Texas. This time they get the cover and I obviously give them a great shot at pulling the outright upset against a team that’s due to drop a game. 10* |
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01-16-23 | Suns v. Grizzlies -10.5 | Top | 106-136 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Two teams headed in very different directions here. Phoenix is just 2-11 over its last 13 games and has covered the spread only two times in the last nine games. Memphis is on a nine-game win streak, during which they are 6-3 ATS.
But, surprisingly, this is a revenge spot for the Grizzlies.
They lost to the Suns, here at home, 125-108 right after Christmas (12/27). That was after blowing the Suns out (in Phoenix) just four days earlier.
The Grizzlies are a devastating home team. Not only are they 18-3 at the FedExForum, but they are winning by an average of 10.8 points/game. This is a depleted Suns roster with little chance of doing anything today. No Booker, Paul, Payne or Johnson. That wasn’t the case when they beat the Grizzlies last month. Memphis has scored 121 or more points in six straight games. Phoenix has failed to score 100 five of its last seven and has given up 123.5 PPG over its last two. Lay it. 10* |
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01-15-23 | Magic v. Nuggets -10 | Top | 116-119 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Denver sat Nikola Jokic on Friday and still beat the Clippers 115-103 on the road. So you have to like their chances here, at home against the lowly Magic, even with a large spread in play. The Nuggets are tied (with Memphis) for the best record in the Western Conference right now at 29-13. They’ve won five in a row overall and covered the spread in four of the wins (with one push). Since 12/18, the team is 12-2 SU and 9-4-1 ATS. At the opposite end of the spectrum, you have Orlando, who is a bottom five team in the NBA, although definitely better than the bottom four. The Magic are at the end of a five-game road trip and while things have gone surprisingly well so far (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS), I think they’re ripe to get blown out tonight. Jokic will play for the Nuggets and that’s obviously bad news for an Orlando team that carries a bottom 10 ranking both offensively and defensively. The Nuggets aren’t just winning games, they are crushing teams, outscoring the last five opponents by an average of 19.6 points/game. I have no problem laying this number Sunday night. 10* |
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01-15-23 | Ohio State v. Rutgers -3 | Top | 64-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
One could probably make the case that BOTH of these Big 10 squads are a bit underrated at the moment. Ohio State and Rutgers each find themselves listed in the KenPom top 15, however neither are to be found in the AP or Coaches’ polls. Ohio State was in the Top 25 of those polls, but has dropped three straight relatively close decisions, including two when favored at home. I suppose there’s no shame in losing to Purdue, but losing as a 14.5-point favorite in Columbus to Minnesota was very bad for the Buckeyes. The market seems to think this is a “must win” for OSU, but I’d be careful about that as Rutgers has lost just once over its last seven games (Iowa) and that was a game where the ShotQuality data suggested they probably should have won. A win here and you have to think the Scarlet Knights are in the “official” Top 25. What I like about this Rutgers team is their defense. They are #3 in the country in defensive efficiency, trailing only Tennessee and Houston. That’s a massive edge over Ohio State, who is 99th in defensive efficiency. This is the second meeting of the year between these teams. Ohio State won the first, 67-66, but that was not without controversy as the Big 10 later admitted that the game-winning shot should not have counted. Look for Rutgers, who is 34-9 L43 home games, to exact revenge in this one. Lay the short number. 10* |
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01-14-23 | Portland v. Gonzaga -17.5 | Top | 75-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
Gonzaga just escaped BYU with a 75-74 win, but did not cover as 6.5-point road favorites. That makes it an 0-3 ATS start to the New Year for the Zags, all of those games coming as single digit favorites on the road. I think it’s worth pointing out though that the three teams they just faced are all top five in the WCC. Portland is NOT top five and that’s why the Zags are laying double digits here as they return home Saturday. The oddsmakers are expecting a blowout and so am I. So far Gonzaga has won all seven home games by an average of 28.1 points/game. This remains an elite offensive team that is 6th in the country in efficiency, not to mention shoots it at a 51.4% clip. Portland is coming off a bit of a surprise result as they were two-point home underdogs at home in a 92-87 win vs. San Francisco. But the last time the Pilots hit the road, they were beaten soundly, by St. Mary’s 85-43 as 17-point underdogs. May not get quite that ugly here, but the Zags will roll. 10* |
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01-14-23 | Celtics v. Hornets +8 | Top | 122-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
On paper, this looks like a big mismatch with the best team in the East (and probably the entire NBA) taking on the team with the worst record in the Conference.
Boston has been very impressive in rolling to a league-best 32-11 record. They come into the weekend riding a five-game win streak after defeating Brooklyn 109-98 Thursday.
But the Celtics haven’t been that great as road favorites so far, at least at the betting window as they are 7-10-1 ATS in that role. With another game here in Charlotte Monday afternoon, I can see this not exactly being a peak performance (Jaylen Brown is questionable to play).
Meanwhile, it should be “all hands on deck” for the Hornets, who are back home after playing the last four games on the road. They’ve lost six of seven overall, but did upset Milwaukee on the road, 138-109 as a 10-point underdog. With Boston only outscoring its opponents by 2.5 points/game on the road, I just think this is too many points. 10* |
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01-14-23 | Kentucky +12 v. Tennessee | Top | 63-56 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
This is the ultimate buy low spot on Kentucky, who just lost outright - as a 20-point home favorite (!) - to South Carolina earlier in the week. Now the Wildcats face one of the best teams in the country (Tennessee) and are catching double digits themselves.
It’s not been a great watch in Lexington so far this season as UK has not covered a spread since before Thanksgiving. That’s 10 straight ATS losses for “those keeping score at home.”
But how many times do you get KENTUCKY catching double digits? Not many. The most points they’ve gotten in any game all season was 4.5. That was against Alabama, another top 10 team, on the road. I don’t think that the difference between ‘Bama and Tennessee is as great as the oddsmakers’ number here makes it out to be.
Teams have shot just 20.9% from three against Tennessee this season. That cannot possibly continue. I say that because the NCAA record for 3-point FG% defense (in a single season) is 25.3%. Double digit road underdogs, after losing outright as a double digit favorite, are a solid 57.5% ATS the last 30 seasons. Grab the points here. 10* |
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01-13-23 | Magic v. Jazz -5.5 | Top | 108-112 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
Utah has been sliding in recent weeks (2-8 SU L10 games), but did just defeat their old teammate (Deron Williams) and Cleveland earlier this week. I like their chances of not only making it two straight, but also covering the spread on Friday.
The Jazz get Orlando off a win, and a rather shocking one at that as the Magic beat the Blazers on the road, 109-106 as an eight-point underdog.
But this will be the Magic’s fourth straight road game, all out West. The Portland win came on the second night of a back to back, making that result all the more shocking. But even with the two days off here, I think fatigue could be setting in. At home, the Jazz are averaging 120.9 points/game. That’s far too much for an Orlando team that only averages 106.6 on the road. The Magic were at 51.3% from the field in their last game. Rarely, do they shoot better than 50% in two straight games. 10* |
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01-13-23 | Yale +1.5 v. Cornell | Top | 82-94 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
Note the early tip time for this one (5 PM ET). After registering a big win over Penn (88-69 as 3.5 point favorites) last Friday, Cornell promptly dropped its first Ivy League game the following day (75-68 to Princeton, as three-point favorites). The Ivy League leaders are again at home this Friday and with such a short number, most are going to be calling for a bounce back. I’ve got a bit of a different read on this one.
Yale has played three close games to open conference play. They dropped the first two, 62-60 at Columbia and 81-77 at Dartmouth. Both times they were double digit favorites. Then came the first win in the Ivy League, 58-54 over Harvard last Saturday. But again the Bulldogs failed to cover, this time as 7.5-point favorites.
But this will be the first time Yale has been an underdog since facing Kentucky on 12/10. They covered the number in that game pretty easily. It’s a much shorter number obviously vs. Cornell, but I still like Yale’s chances. They have a major edge defensively in this matchup as Cornell ranks 226th in efficiency over at KenPom. Yale is 69th. 8* |
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01-12-23 | Cavs v. Blazers +3.5 | Top | 119-113 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
Portland will host Cleveland Thursday night, looking for a reversal of fortunes as the Blazers have dropped four straight while the Cavs have won four of six.
They say “there’s no place like home,” but for Portland that was untrue two nights ago when they went out and lost to Orlando, 109-106, here at home. That was their first game back home following an 0-3 road trip and they shot just 6 of 35 from three. I expect much better shooting in this game, even though Cleveland has a reputation of being very good defensively.
While the Cavs have won four of six, they are just 1-2 on the current road trip and this is going to be their fourth road game in seven days (third in five). Donvan Mitchell’s 46 was not enough against his former team (Utah) on Wednesday as the Cavs lost to the Jazz 116-114. It’s been a good first half of the season in Cleveland, but we’ve seen the team start to “give a little back” at the betting window where they are 2-6-1 ATS their last nine games. The market seems to have caught up to this team. Furthermore, the Cavs are just 6-12-2 ATS on the road this year. |
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01-12-23 | Colorado v. USC -3.5 | Top | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
Let’s head to the Pac 12 for tonight’s College Basketball selection as USC hosts Colorado. The Trojans have already taken some early action, including from me, as I think this is a great spot for them to bounce back from back to back losses.
Both those losses occurred on the road, at Washington State and UCLA. It was a close one against their rivals, with USC even roaring back to take the lead in the final 30 seconds, but they ultimately fell two points short. But at least it was an easy cover as 11-point pups.
Before the two straight losses, USC had won seven games in a row, one of them over Auburn. Andy Enfield’s team was 11-3 overall with two of the losses coming to Tennessee and Wisconsin.
At home, don’t think the Trojans will shoot 18.5% from three again as they did vs. UCLA. As for Colorado, they have prevailed in seven of their last eight games. But that one loss was to Cal, on the road. I understand that the Buffaloes just beat up on Oregon and Oregon State, but this line opened too low as USC is 6-1 ATS this season against teams that have a winning record. Lay it. 10* |
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01-11-23 | Missouri State v. Illinois State +4 | Top | 66-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Illinois State snapped a three-game losing skid its last time out, beating Evansville on the road, 69-61. Now they’ll turn around and host a Missouri State team that just had a four-game win streak ended with a 74-61 loss at Belmont. I won’t lie and sell you that Illinois State is a “good team,” but the Redbirds’ record could certainly be a lot better. They have four losses by four points or less. Missouri State being a road favorite here immediately caught my attention. The Bears have had to lay points in only one true road game so far this season. While they won and covered in that spot, it was against Illinois-Chicago, who is a pretty bad team. If this game comes down to the free throws, and it very well might (considering the tight spread), then Illinois State has a huge edge. The Redbirds are making 79.8% of their FTs (82.1% at home). Missouri State, meanwhile, is a woeful 59.1% from the charity stripe (57.1% on the road). ISU is a solid 13-6 ATS in its last 19 home games. Take the points. 10* |
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01-11-23 | Pacers v. Knicks -4 | Top | 113-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Needless to say, Indiana has outperformed their low expectations coming into the season. One more win and the Pacers go Over their season win total! Unfortunately, Pacers’ fans, you’re going to have to wait another day. I like the Knicks here, at home, coming off a loss. The Knicks were a trendy pick Monday night vs. Milwaukee and looked to be well on their way to victory. But they blew a 17-point lead here at home and ended up losing by four. This should have them coming out angry for tonight. Last month, the Knicks beat the Pacers, 109-106 in Indiana, and went off as a 1-point favorite. I think the number should be higher here. Indiana has a negative efficiency rating (-1.9), so I think their 23-18 record is a bit fraudulent. I see them as being due for a downturn. Fade. 10* |
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01-10-23 | VCU -3 v. Loyola-Chicago | Top | 78-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
I played VCU on Saturday, laying 5.5 against Davidson. They came through for me, winning in rather dominant fashion, 89-72. Let’s go back to the well with the Rams again.
VCU actually fell behind Davidson 10-0 after the first four minutes. But from there, it was all Rams. I don’t see them falling behind like that here against Loyola Chicago, so expect another comfortable victory.
Loyola has now failed to cover five in a row after it was beaten 86-75 at George Mason over the weekend. That was also the Ramblers’ fourth consecutive SU loss. Drew Valentine’s team is struggling big time right now as each of those four losses were by double digits.
Bettors can’t be happy with this Loyola team, who is 3-12 ATS in all games this season. Even getting points hasn’t really helped as they are 1-4 ATS in that role. After giving up 80 or more points in the previous game (as is the case here), the Ramblers are 0-4 ATS this season. Give me VCU and it’s 52nd ranked defense. Loyola is outside the top 200 defensively. Lay the short number. 10* |
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01-08-23 | Hawks v. Clippers -3.5 | Top | 112-108 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
The Clippers badly need to get back on track. They’ve lost five in a row and failed to cover the spread in the last four games. The Hawks aren’t in any better shape as they’ve dropped six of eight amidst chemistry issues. As a three-point favorite, they were beaten by the Lakers on Friday and gave up 130 points. There’s seemingly always a question about Kawhi Leonard and Paul George’s statuses when you play the Clippers, but I like them regardless tonight. This will be just the second time in the last nine games that they get to play at home. Atlanta was down 70-49 at the half to the Lakers and is 7-13 on the road. Look for this to be a “get right” spot for LA. 10* |
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01-08-23 | Niagara v. Manhattan +3 | Top | 59-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
Let’s head to the MAAC Sunday afternoon where Manhattan will look to get back on track hosting Niagara. The Jaspers have lost three straight, the last two coming at home. They were slight favorites (-2) to beat Canisius earlier in the week, but went down 64-57. I don’t see this team losing three in a row at home, so as a dog, they are my lone College Hoops play for Sunday.
Now Niagara comes in riding a four-game win streak, the last two coming as short underdogs. The Purple Eagles beat Rider and Fairfield to start 2023, the latter on the road. But just like I cannot see Manhattan losing three straight at home, I can’t see Niagara making it five wins in a row.
Let’s point out that Thursday’s win at Fairfield was an OT game for Niagara and they really benefited from horrible shooting by the opposition, who went 31.8% overall from the floor and 2 of 16 from three. I don’t see Manhattan shooting that poorly here.
There have not been many wins so far for the 4-10 Jaspers. But being underdogs here should lead to a sense of “disrespect” as I believe the home team feels it can certainly win this one.
Also worth pointing out that Niagara is the 3rd luckiest team in the country per KenPom. They are 5-0 in games decided by seven points or less so far, which does not even include the overtime game on Thursday. The only other time that the Purple Eagles were road favorites this season, they lost outright to New Jersey Tech 62-53. Take the points here. (Probably won’t need them though). 10* |
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01-07-23 | Pelicans v. Mavs -7 | Top | 117-127 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Bad spot here for New Orleans, who is in the second game of a back to back without Zion Willamson and Brandon Ingram. The Pelicans fought valiantly last night at home, but ultimately lost to the Nets 108-102 and didn’t cover the 4-point spread.
Dallas had Friday off and should come out angry here after having their seven-game win streak snapped in embarrassing fashion Thursday when they were blown out here at home by the Celtics, 124-95.
It has to be very frustrating for the Pelicans to look at that final score from last night as Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving miss a combined 32 shots for Brooklyn. NO had its own shooting woes in the second half, however, making just 2 of 12 threes. They finished the game at 39.8% overall.
While the Pelicans have been an excellent home team so far, they are below .500 on the road (7-10 SU) and this is not the situation to get back on track. The Mavericks were 29-9 ATS the previous two seasons when off a game like Thursday where they were held under 100 points. They haven’t been as profitable in that situation this season, but it’s still a good spot to jump on as Luka should have another big game. 10* |
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01-06-23 | Heat v. Suns +1.5 | Top | 104-96 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
The Suns are a bit of a mess right now due to Devin Booker being injured. The team has lost four straight. In the last two games, they’ve finished with only 83 and 88 points.
But all four of those losses came on the road. I know that when a team is playing its first home game following a long road trip, it’s usually not the best time to jump on board. However, the Suns should be very happy to be back at home where they are 14-5 this season.
Miami is at the end of a five-game road trip here. They’ve won two and lost two thus far. The last game saw the Heat lose to a Lakers team that did not have LeBron James or Anthony Davis. They let Dennis Schroder go for a season-high 32 points.
Mostly because of injuries, the Heat have underperformed this season. They are just a game above .500 and sitting eighth in the Eastern Conference standings. But due to Phoenix’s recent woes and the short number, my guess is that most bettors will be on the road favorite here. I think that’s a mistake. The Suns almost won at Cleveland on Wednesday and that is not an easy place to play. (Cavs are 18-4 at home). They lost on a last second jumper by Evan Mobley. I think this is a good buy low spot on Phoenix, who isn’t a home dog very often. Miami is 7-18 ATS as a favorite this season. 8* |
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01-06-23 | Akron +3 v. Ball State | Top | 63-70 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
Akron hasn’t had much success on the road this season, but the Zips have won six of seven overall and tonight I expect them to go into Ball State, and at the very least, cover the number.
Ball State has won six in a row themselves. The Cardinals opened MAC play by winning at Toledo, 90-83 as an 8.5 point underdog. Coming off a win like that is usually a good time to fade a team. I just can’t see BSU matching the kind of shooting we saw from them in the last game (52.5% overall, 11 of 22 from three).
The underdog has a big edge defensively in this game, ranking 103rd in efficiency while the favorite is just 235th in that department.
Akron has also had Ball State’s number, winning and covering all four meetings the last two seasons. Every win has been by at least nine points.
I just think that the better team is getting points in this one. Ball State is 1-3 ATS this year after scoring 80 or more points the previous game. |
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01-05-23 | Pacific v. San Diego -6 | Top | 84-82 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
Two teams looking to make their mark in the West Coast Conference square off late Thursday as San Diego welcomes in Pacific. San Diego (8-8 SU, 5-9 ATS) is off a big win as 11-point underdogs at San Francisco. This will be the Toreros first time playing at the Jenny Craig Pavilion since an 84-58 win over UC San Diego back on December 12th. They went 2-3 SU/ATS on the recently completed road swing. Pacific (8-9 SU, 6-9 ATS) is also coming off an outright win as they beat Loyola Marymount 78-72 as a 4.5-point underdog. But that was at home. I don’t see a second straight upset win in the cards for the Tigers. San Diego is averaging over 80 points/game at home this season. They are #59 in the country in offensive efficiency as per KenPom. The defensive numbers aren’t great for the Toreros, but I also don’t think Pacific can take advantage. This is a Tigers team that lost to a non-DI school (CS-East Bay) at home last month. They also lost by 20 at home to BYU. Lay the points here. 8* |
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01-05-23 | Celtics -2 v. Mavs | Top | 124-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
On Tuesday, the Celtics were blown out in the most shocking way imaginable, 150-117 by Oklahoma City. It was the most points allowed in a game by the franchise since 1979! It was also the Celtics’ second loss in a row. I played against them on New Year’s Day when they started this four-game road trip with a 123-111 loss at Denver. Despite basically being fully healthy, the Celtics have dropped five of nine overall. But they are still the best team in basketball in my view and their reputation still carries a lot of weight in the marketplace as they are favored here, on the road, over a Dallas team that’s on a seven-game win streak. These teams met back in November, in Boston, and the Celtics won 125-112 as 5.5-point favorites. You know we’re going to get an inspired showing from the Celtics after they got humiliated by one of the worst teams in the league. Lay the points. 10* |
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01-05-23 | Fairleigh Dickinson +1 v. St Francis NY | Top | 76-57 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
Last month, Fairleigh Dickinson gave a truly horrific effort against Richmond, actually trailing at the half 42-9! The Knights then lost their next game, 82-73 to Queens U, one of the new D-I programs this season. But they battled back and posted consecutive wins to end 2022, first beating Merrimack 71-63 and then Centenary 99-50.
Certainly, those wins won’t impress anyone, but it is not as if Wednesday’s opposition, St. Francis (NY), is anything to be concerned about. This is not exactly the marquee matchup for Thursday College Hoops. FDU is rated #328 at KenPom while SFNY is #348.
FDU is one of the worst defensive teams in the country, but has the edge offensively and I think their tempo (70th fastest in the country) will bother St. Francis.
In their last game, St. Francis lost to Central Connecticut State, another of the worst teams in the country. Actually, they didn’t just lose, they got beat by 22! The fact that this is a revenge game for FDU (five straight losses to St. Francis) puts them over the top for me. Homecourt advantage won’t mean much on a Thursday afternoon. 10* |
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01-04-23 | Spurs v. Knicks -9.5 | Top | 114-117 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
After winning and covering eight straight, the Knicks promptly dropped five in a row. But now they’re pointed back in the right direction after back to back blowout wins. They should make it three in a row tonight when they host the Spurs. They may not have the worst record in the league, but no team has been outscored by more than the Spurs have been. In their last game, they went down by 36 at the hands of Brooklyn. The Spurs never led at any points in the game. The Knicks outscored Houston 81-53 over the final three quarters on Saturday, then led by as many as 32 against Phoenix on Monday. I don’t expect their to be any kind of letdown tonight, considering NY will be playing with revenge for a 122-115 loss that occurred in San Antonio last week. In that game, Julius Randle scored 41 but the Spurs shot 51.1% as a team. Since then, the Knicks have gotten back to playing outstanding defense, giving up just 88 and 83 points the L2 games. The Spurs have the worst defensive rating in the league and are 28th on offense. Lay it. 10* |
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01-04-23 | Northern Iowa v. Valparaiso +3 | Top | 69-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
Four games into conference play and Valparaiso is still looking for its first Missouri Valley win. The Crusaders host Northern Iowa on Wednesday. I sense there will be a real sense of desperation here for the home team and thus will back them plus the points. Valpo is coming off a dreadful shooting night, one in which it made just 29.5% of its FG attempts against Indiana State. They ended up losing 68-50. Coming off an embarrassing effort such as that, at home no less, you’ve got to expect an inspired effort here. Northern Iowa is playing its second straight true road game, the first time that situation has come up for them in 2022-23. The Panthers won at Illinois State on New Year’s Eve, 66-60, a slight upset as they came into that game as one-point underdogs. Prior to that win, they’d dropped four of six. This is a game flying under the radar on Wednesday’s CBB slate, but again, I like the situation for Valpo, who had scored 70 or more in each of its previous four home games. The Crusaders are due for better shooting after that abysmal last performance. They are 13-5 ATS when coming off a game where they scored 60 points or less. UNI, on the other hand, is 4-10 ATS after holding its previous opponent to 60 or less. That includes 0-4 this season. Take the points. 10* |
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01-03-23 | Wizards v. Bucks -7.5 | Top | 113-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
The Wizards upset the Bucks as 2.5-point underdogs on New Year’s Day, winning 118-95. But that upset comes with a giant asterisk. The Bucks were short handed for that game as Giannis Antetokounmpo sat out due to knee soreness. Jrue Holiday also missed the game with an illness and Khris Middleton didn’t play either.
Both Giannis and Holiday are expected to play in the rematch tonight. I’m expecting a big Bucks’ win at home.
The Bucks have dropped five of six, so they could use an impressive performance. The Wizards are 5-0 SU/ATS in their L5 games, but remember that it wasn’t that long ago they were on a 10-game losing streak.
With Giannis and Holiday on the floor, the Bucks have a +8.9 net rating and are a much better team defensively. I’m aware Washington may get Bradley Beal back, but when these teams are close to full strength, it’s a clear mismatch for Milwaukee. When coming off an upset loss as a favorite, the Bucks are a perfect 6-0 against the spread this season. The Wizards’ have allowed an average of only 103.8 points during the five-game win streak, but that’s well below their season average of 112.4 and I’d expect them to regress at the defensive end sooner rather than later. Lay the points here. 10* |
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01-02-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +2.5 | Top | 111-124 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
In a tough Western Conference, the T’wolves really need to get going. Right now, they are on the WRONG side of the cut line when it comes to the play-in tournament. Not even being among the West’s Top 10 is certainly a bit of a shock, considering where this team was projected to be coming into the season.
Tonight, Minnesota hosts Denver, who is coming off a big win over Boston last night. I played the Nuggets Sunday as they easily covered as 1.5-point underdogs, winning 123-111. Nikola Jokic had yet another triple double (30-12-12) in a game that featured a 30+ minute delay due to a defective rim.
Denver is in 1st place in the West with a 24-12 record. But coming off last night’s win, this sets up as a letdown spot for them. It will be only their fourth time playing in a back to back this year. The Nuggets are also 0-2 ATS this season coming off a SU win where they were listed as the underdog.
Things may not be looking good in Minnesota as the team is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS over its last six games. They lost here at home to the Pistons on Saturday, 116-104. But, because of that, there is no doubt as to which side should come out more motivated Monday night. The T’wolves went 3-1 against the Nuggets last year and have lost back to back home games only one time so far this season. Give me the points. 10* |
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01-02-23 | West Virginia +3.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 60-67 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Both teams are coming off close losses on the road to open Big XII play. In each instance, the loss occurred in the state of Kansas. West Virginia lost to Kansas State 82-76 in overtime (pick ‘em game) while Oklahoma State lost 69-67 (as 10-point underdogs) at Kansas.
The difference between these teams is that WVU is on an 0-3 ATS losing streak while OK State is 3-0 ATS its last three games. I look for these streaks to end Monday.
WVU had won four straight games before losing in Manhattan. Oklahoma State is only 3-3 SU over its last six games. I don’t think that the Mountaineers should be underdogs here, even on the road.
With this game likely to be pretty low-scoring (total is currently 139.5 - and it wouldn’t surprise me if it stayed Under), that’s just another reason to take the points. I’ve got West VIrginia rated as the better team. Oklahoma State is 1-5 ATS the last six times it has been a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. 10* |
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01-01-23 | Celtics v. Nuggets +1.5 | Top | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Boston ended a seven-game homestand on a four-game win streak. They beat Minnesota, Milwaukee, Houston and the Clippers. They’ve had two days off to prepare for this New Year’s trip to Denver.
As good as the Celtics are, the Nuggets are worthy adversaries. They’ve won 9 of 11 and one of those losses was by a single point.
At home, Denver is 13-3 and outscoring visitors by nine points per game.
When these teams played in Boston on November 11th, the Celtics made 16 three-pointers and shot 55% overall. That will not be repeated. Jokic continues to be ridiculous for the Nuggets, making 50% of shots in 26 straight games. 10* |
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01-01-23 | Cornell v. Dartmouth +8.5 | Top | 74-63 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
I’m taking Dartmouth here, despite their five consecutive losses. Three of the five have been by single digits and the last four on the road. The Big Green now return home for the first time in a month, hosting a Cornell team that’s 10-3 and on a four-game win streak. Line is inflated here.
When off three consecutive SU losses, Dartmouth is 8-1 ATS. That includes covering the last two games.
As you may have surmised, the Big Green haven’t shot well during the 5-game skid. I’d say 35.6% is abnormally poor though. We should see that number start to go up at home though as they have a 49.5 FG% here for the year. They also are holding teams to 39.9%
Yes, Cornell can score and is very good at the offensive end. But they are not sound defensively, yielding 78.7 points/game away from home. They are 254th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.
While I’m not so confident to predict an outright win here for the Big Green, they should easily cover at home. Take the points. 10* |
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12-31-22 | Knicks -4.5 v. Rockets | Top | 108-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
The Knicks are having all sorts of problems at the moment as they’ve dropped five in a row and are 0-4-1 ATS that same stretch. But they get a “new year’s present” tonight in the form of a matchup with the sorry Rockets. It wasn’t all that long ago that the Knicks were on an eight-game win streak. It’s not like they’re being blown out during this losing streak. All five losses have been by seven points or fewer. One was a buzzer beater while another was an overtime loss to Dallas that required a Herculean effort from Luka Doncic. Houston is unlikely to provide much resistance for a Knicks team that is desperate to get back on track. The Rockets have dropped seven of eight, the last two by a combined 39 points. The Knicks are 22-7 ATS their last 29 road games. Look for them to tighten up at the defensive end and cover this small number. Julius Randle had 41 points and 11 rebounds in the last game and is capable of carrying the offensive load. 10* |
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12-31-22 | San Diego State -3.5 v. UNLV | Top | 76-67 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
San Diego State, the presumed favorite to win the Mountain West this year, has been termed “disappointing” thus far, even though the Aztecs have a fine record and their defensive efficiency rating (13th) is among the best in the country.
I had to settle for a ‘push’ when I played the Aztecs, as 16-point favorites, against Air Force earlier in the week. This time, as they are set to hit the conference road for the first time, we’re getting a far lower number and one that I believe they’ll cover easily.
UNLV is in a bit of freefall as the Runnin’ Rebels have lost two of three following a 10-0 start. Both losses were close, 75-73 to San Francisco and 75-72 to San Jose State, the latter being a game that went to OT. But the Rebels are a team that struggles to score in the half court. That will be a big problem here.
San Diego State should control tempo this afternoon. I think UNLV struggles at both ends of the court here. Since it’s last loss, SDSU has won three straight by 16+ points. Just think the line is a little low in this one. Lay the points. 10* |
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12-30-22 | UCLA -8 v. Washington State | Top | 67-66 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
After a couple of hiccups against Illinois and Baylor, certainly excusable losses (especially since they were played on a neutral floor), UCLA has rattled off eight consecutive victories, most of them by double digits. I’ll look for them to continue rolling tonight when they visit the Palouse. Washington State has dropped two in a row for the fourth time this season. The Cougars are just 5-8 on the season. Now, the three previous times they’ve been off back to back losses previously, they’ve delivered a win. But those wins came against Eastern Washington, Northern Kentucky and George Washington. In every one of those games, they were the favorites. UCLA has dominated this Pac 12 rivalry through the years, winning 40 of the past 47 matchups. The eighth ranked Bruins have eight wins by 10 or more over the past month, including beating Kentucky (in New York) and a 27-point thrashing of Maryland in a true road game. This should be a cakewalk by comparison. The biggest problem for Wazzu in this game is that they are turning the ball over on 21.2% of all possessions, which is 292nd nationally. UCLA excels at turning its opponents over, doing so on 25.3% of all possessions, 11th best in the country. Lay the points here. 10* |
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12-29-22 | Rockets v. Mavs -10.5 | Top | 114-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
Dallas should be in line for a big win tonight when they host Houston, who is one of the worst teams in the league and just 1-6 SU in its L7 games. After being such a disappointment at the betting window for the first month of the season, we’ve seen better results from the Mavs recently. They have won four in a row including a 126-121 victory over the Knicks on Tuesday. In that game, Luka Doncic turned in the first 60-20-10 game (points-rebounds-assists) in league history. Three of those four recent wins for the Mavs have been by six points or less. One of them was in Houston 112-106 as seven-point favorites. Doncic had 50-8-10 in that game. Doncic may not repeat those individual numbers tonight, but the Rockets are playing their third road game in four nights and are just 4-14 on the road this year. I am expecting a blowout. The Rockets just lost by 24 in Boston two nights ago. This is a team with a bottom three offensive and defensive rating. Lay it! 10* |
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12-29-22 | Iowa v. Nebraska +4.5 | Top | 50-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Many will view this as a “bounce back” or “get right” game for Iowa after they suffered an inexplicable 92-83 loss to Eastern Illinois last week, a game where the Hawkeyes were 31-point home favorites. I am far less convinced that any such “bounce back” takes place. Nebraska is a team that has already taken Purdue, the class of the Big 10, into overtime this year. That game was played right in Lincoln. The Cornhuskers might be considered towards the bottom of the conference pecking order, but they are still a respectable 89th in the country over at KenPom. Iowa is still soft defensively, ranking outside the top 100 in adjusted efficiency. So Nebraska should be able to put up points here. Particularly on the inside as Iowa lets teams shoot over 50% from inside the arc. For the season, 54% of the Cornhuskers’ FG attempts are two-pointers. Overall, Iowa has lost four of seven since a 5-0 start. Something to keep in mind is that Eastern Illinois had just one D-I win prior to stunning the Hawkeyes. That’s a very concerning result if you’re Fran McCaffery. Nebraska has balanced scoring with six players averaging between 9 and 14 points/game. Five players scored in double figures in the last game, a 75-65 win over Queens. Take the points in this Big 10 matchup. 10* |
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12-28-22 | Air Force v. San Diego State -16 | Top | 55-71 | Push | 0 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
At 9-4 overall, Air Force is a lot better than usual this year. The Flyboys have even covered seven in a row. But this is a spot to sell high on the Falcons as they face San Diego State, the class of the Mountain West.
The Aztecs aren’t defending as well this year as we’re accustomed to seeing, but are still 14th in the country in efficiency and that’s good enough for me. They should have beaten Arkansas (blew a double digit lead) and also have a win over Ohio State on the non-conference slate.
The offense has been better for SDSU as well and that’s while not shooting all that well from three. Air Force is due for some serious regression when it comes to three-point defense (opponents only hitting 24% against them) so this is a game I’ve targeted for the Aztecs to get hot from deep.
So far, Air Force has played one of the weakest schedules in the entire country. San Diego State will be the best team they’ve faced yet. This number will scare some away, but not me as the Aztecs have won their last two games by a total of 50 points. They are also 7-0 at home with an average margin of victory of +18.0. Lay it. 10* |
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12-28-22 | Nets -5 v. Hawks | Top | 108-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Atlanta seemed to be in prime position for a win heading into Indiana last night. But they lost 129-114. If the Hawks can’t beat the Pacers, then I don’t see how they stand much of a chance vs. a Nets team that’s won nine straight while covering the spread in six of its last seven games. While one could make the argument that there’s not a ton of value in laying this number with Brooklyn, on the road, Atlanta has been a terrible team to bet on of late. The Hawks are 6-14 ATS the last 20 games and have failed to cover by an average of 4.7 points/game, the worst mark in the league during that time. Another potential problem for Atlanta is that Trae Young left last night’s game with an ankle injury. The Hawks were already missing two other starters - Clint Capela and De’Andre Hunter. This is not a team you want to back right now. As for the Nets, five of their last nine wins have come on the road, including 125-117 at Cleveland Monday night. The Cavs are not an easy team to beat, especially at home. But the Nets hung 125 points on what had been the league’s most efficient defense this year. Atlanta is far worse at defending than Cleveland. Brooklyn is leading the league in FG% and 3-point FG%. Kevin Durant has scored at least 25 points each of the last 13 times he’s faced Atlanta while Kyrie Irving is averaging 28-5-5 over his L10 games. Lay the number here. 10* |
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12-27-22 | Clippers v. Raptors -5 | Top | 124-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
The Clippers had absolutely zero business winning last night’s game in Detroit, let alone covering the spread. Down 14 with 3:34 left, LA appeared left for dead, but instead somehow rallied to force overtime where they’d go on to win 142-131. They were 5.5 point favorites.
I will look to fade LA again here, even if Kawhi Leonard ends up playing. A second night of a back to back after an OT game where they rallied just seems like a bad situation all around. The Clippers remain just 9-8 on the road and don’t play particularly good defense.
Toronto hasn’t played since before Christmas when they upset the Cavaliers in Cleveland (not easy to do), 118-107 as a 5-point dog. It was a perfect 3-0 ATS road trip for the Raptors, which included another outright win where they snapped the Knicks’ eight-game win streak. The only SU loss on the trip was by three, in overtime, at Philadelphia (who has been the hottest team in the league). Back to the Clippers, they have lost five of the seven times they’ve played in the second night of a back to back this year. 10* |
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12-26-22 | Clippers v. Pistons +5.5 | Top | 142-131 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
If you’re thinking that this line looks a little “short” or even “scary,” the first thing you need to be aware of is that Kawhi Leonard is not taking the court tonight for the Clippers (due to injury management).
The Clippers are only 8-8 on the road this season and coming off a deflating loss where they blew a 20-point lead at Philadelphia.
Now it’s true the Pistons have the worst record in the NBA and are on a five-game losing streak. But this team generally plays hard. They are 9-3 ATS so far this season when they are on a losing streak of three or more games.
Playing on exactly two days rest, the Clippers are 0-3 ATS. They are 6-23 ATS in that situation the last three seasons. If you can believe it, the Pistons have a superior offensive rating compared to the Clippers. Without Leonard, expect the road team to struggle. 8* |
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12-25-22 | Grizzlies -4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 109-123 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 29 m | Show |
I’ll start by pointing out that this is a revenge game for the Grizzlies, who were eliminated by the Warriors (in six games) in last season’s Western Conference semifinal.
Golden State would go on to win its fourth NBA title in eight years last June. But things have not gone well so far this season. They are just 15-18 on the season and sit in 11th place in the Western Conference.
The biggest news for this game is the continued absence of Steph Curry. Andrew Wiggins (groin) is another player dealing with an injury and his status is questionable. Though they’ve had three days off, this is not a great spot for the Warriors, who are playing at home for the first time since a 1-5 SU/ATS swing out East. Generally, it’s a good idea to fade teams in their first game back from a long trip.
It doesn’t help that the Warriors’ defense has fallen off a cliff this year. They are 21st in defensive efficiency, which is not at all encouraging when facing a Memphis team that now has Desmond Bane back in the lineup and just hung 125 in a blowout win at Phoenix on Friday. Remembering last season’s playoff exit, the Grizzlies will be looking to make a “statement” here. They are back at full strength while the Warriors aren’t even close to that. Currently tied for the best record in the West, the Grizz are top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Lay the points with the much better team on X-mas. 10* |
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12-23-22 | Blazers +5 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-120 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
Northwest Division rivals renew acquaintances right before Christmas with Denver hosting Portland. Speaking of Christmas, Denver plays on the holiday while Portland doesn’t. While not the full extend of my handicap here, I think there could be a bit of a lookahead for the Nuggets (host the Suns on X-Mas). For Portland, this is the end of a six-game road trip. They’ve lost the last two games, both to lowly OKC, so they are desperate for a win here so they can return to their families with their collective heads hung high. I expect the Blazers to be fully motivated tonight. These teams have already split a pair of games in Portland this year. The Blazers won the first one by 25, but lost the second by 1. Something to consider is that while the Nuggets have the best record in the West through 30 games (19-11), three teams below them have better point differentials. Portland isn’t one of the three, but does sport an identical net efficiency rating for the season. The Blazers are a very respectable 11-6 ATS as underdogs while the Nuggets are 2-6 ATS overall in December. Take the points in this one. 10* |
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12-22-22 | Wizards +6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 112-120 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
I think this is a good spot to grab the points and fade Utah. The Jazz were 126-111 winners on Tuesday, which was actually good for me as I had the Over in that game with the Pistons (my 10* NBA Total of the Month!) But here, they’re probably less motivated, which could be a problem facing a Wizards team that’s desperate for a win.
This is Washington’s fifth straight road game, all out West. They lost the first three games, but then upset Phoenix Tuesday, winning 113-110 as seven-point underdogs. The trip ends tomorrow in Sacramento. But I think the Wiz are likely to play better tonight. For what it’s worth, the Wiz are 7-5 ATS vs. the Western Conference this year with an almost even scoring differential.
Yes, the Wizards had lost 10 straight before beating Phoenix. But with the proverbial “monkey off their back” now, I expect them to play better. Bradley Beal is back and averaging 28 points/game on 46% shooting since his return.
I am anticipating that Utah will crater and not be a team that finishes in the Top 10 out West. They are 25th in defensive rating. Washington beat this Jazz team 121-112, as a four-point home dog, back in November. Utah is only 5-5 in December and I don’t think they should be laying this many points. Back the dog. 10* |
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12-22-22 | Chicago State v. Minnesota -13 | Top | 55-58 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
Gonna fade this Chicago State team again. On Monday, we only needed to lay -6.5 with Illinois State, who covered fairly easily in a 66-52 win. Here, it’s a big number obviously, but we’re also getting Minnesota out of the Big 10. This game won’t be close.
As mentioned in Monday’s writeup, Chicago State is in the midst of a long road trip. It began 11 days ago and this will now be the fifth game in a row away from home. The previous four have all been losses with the final margins getting wider. The Cougars have just one win in their last 10 games.
But of course, we’re not just betting on a win here from Minnesota, we need them to win by margin. The Golden Gophers may be one of the weaker Big 10 teams this year, but they are still eons better than Chicago State. The respective KenPom ratings of these two teams are 181 and 327. You know who’s who.
Minnesota had lost five in a row before picking up a convincing 72-56 win over Arkansas Pine-Bluff last week. What’s significant about that win is that Ark Pine Bluff has a comparable KenPom rating to Chicago State. It was the Gophers’ first game against a non-quality opponent in some time, which partially explains their SU record. Chicago State has to be gassed playing its fifth road game in 11 days. Meanwhile, Minnesota has been off for over a week. That’s a huge situational edge to the superior home team. Lay it! 10* |
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12-21-22 | Lakers v. Kings -6 | Top | 120-134 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
It’s been a much better season than usual in Sacramento where the fans haven’t seen the playoffs since 2005-06. That’s the longest postseason drought of any team in the four “major” North American sports. So far this season, the Kings are 16-13 and sitting in sixth place in the Western Conference.
But they’re coming off a loss, and a bad one at that, as they fell here at home to the lowly Hornets on Monday. Despite a monster game from Domantas Sabonis (28-23-7), the Kings fell 125-119 as 10-point favorites.
Perhaps you can blame the spot as the Kings were home for the first time following a six-game swing out East. Regardless, I expect them to bounce back here against a wounded Lakers squad that is now without Anthony Davis.
LA didn’t have LeBron either Monday at Phoenix and as a result got trounced 130-104 by Phoenix. They are now 2-5-1 ATS since December 6th. Even worse is the Lakers’ ATS record vs. division foes, which is 0-6. They have also lost all six games straight up. It’s a decent sized number to lay here, however, the Kings are putting up 122.9 points/game at home. The Lakers, even with LeBron presumably back in the lineup, cannot keep up with that. The Kings are not only 6-1 ATS vs. division opponents, but 10-3 ATS against teams that have losing records (Lakers are 13-17 SU). |
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12-21-22 | Northeastern +11.5 v. Davidson | Top | 73-70 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
Early College Hoops action on Wednesday as Davidson hosts Northeastern. Both teams are coming off losses. Northeastern fell at IL-Chicago, 81-73 as a 2.5 point underdog. Davidson lost 69-61 to Purdue, but easily stayed within the number as 14.5 point underdogs.
Coming off a high-profile game against the #1 team in the country, this is a tricky spot for Davidson to be laying double digits. It being an afternoon game doesn’t help and could add to a potential “sleepy” effort. Following this game, the Wildcats are off for a week.
Northeastern is 0-5 so far in true road games and is 3-7 overall. They have not shot well at all this year, making just 40% overall and 30% from three. But we saw those numbers go up against UIC and they should continue to do so.
I also do not believe that opponents will continue to shoot only 29% from three against Davidson. Nine of Davidson’s 11 games have been decided by single digits, including the last seven. I just don’t see the Wildcats winning this one by double digits. Grab those points. 10* |
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12-20-22 | Seton Hall v. Xavier -7.5 | Top | 70-73 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
There were different results for these two squads in the respective Big East openers. Xavier hung 102 on hapless Georgetown Friday night while Seton Hall lost at home (71-67) to Providence. It looks like a big number here, but I’m laying it with the Musketeers, whose three losses this year have been to Indiana, Duke and Gonzaga. All those games were close, decided by seven or less. Seton Hall has five losses and has been blown out a few times, losing by double digits to Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas. The Pirates also lost to Siena. I just don’t see them scoring enough to stay within this number tonight. They are averaging just 63.5 points/game away from home so far. That’s not going to cut it against a Xavier team that’s putting up 85.3 in its gym. In addition to that, this is a double revenge game for Xavier, who dropped both meetings with Seton Hall last season. Xavier has won its last six games coming into tonight and has the ninth most efficient offense in the country per KenPom. The worry if you’re Seton Hall is trying to keep up with the pace the Musketeers like to play at. Too much offense from the home team here. Lay it. 10* |
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12-19-22 | Chicago State v. Illinois State -6.5 | Top | 52-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Illinois State hasn’t had a ton to celebrate over the first month of the season, but this is a game where the Redbirds should roll. They are matched up with Chicago State, who (as per usual) is one of the worst teams in the country. Expect the home team to roll tonight in Normal.
ISU was on a three-game SU win streak and had covered four in a row before facing Ball State on Saturday. That game was played at a neutral site (Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis) and the Redbirds got victimized by a hot-shooting team as Ball State made 56.7% of its field goal attempts.
You can’t expect that from Chicago State, who is shooting just 41.5% as a team for the season. The Cougars have covered four in a row, but have lost the last three SU and this will be their fourth straight road game over the last nine days. That’s a bad spot to be in for a team that’s won only three times all season and one of those victories came against IUPUI, the worst D-I team in the country.
Chicago State has played 10 road games and lost them all, by an average of nearly 15 points/game. We don’t even need that margin here. After losing its first two games of the season here in Normal, both by three points, Illinois State has won its last three home games including a nice little upset of Belmont. The Redbirds should win easily tonight. Lay the points. 10* |
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12-19-22 | Magic v. Hawks -7 | Top | 125-126 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
All of a sudden, Orlando has won six in a row and covered seven straight. They just swept a pair of games in Boston, but with the second being played yesterday, the Magic find themselves at a rest disadvantage here. Atlanta last played on Friday, when they blew out Charlotte 125-106 on the road.
That result was much needed for the Hawks as they’d previously dropped 8 of 11 amidst infighting. One of the losses came to the Magic as the Hawks apparently thought defense was optional. They gave up 50 points in the first quarter and ended up losing 135-124.
But that was in Orlando. At home, I like the Hawks to exact some revenge here.
The Magic have yet to win in the second night of a back to back this season (0-4), losing by an average of almost seven points/game. Considering the Hawks were three-point favorites on the road in Orlando last week, it sure looks like we’re getting a discount on them for this rematch. Atlanta won the season’s first two meetings, by 10 and 17 points respectively. They are 8-2 SU/ATS vs. the Magic the last three seasons. Lay it. 10* |
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12-18-22 | Washington State v. Baylor -10 | Top | 59-65 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
In the final game on the board, I look for Baylor to roll tonight against Washington State. This is being played at the American Airlines Arena (home of NBA’s Mavs), so not a true home game for the Bears, but we know which team will have more crowd support here.
Since a humiliating 26-point loss at the hands of Marquette, Baylor has beaten Gonzaga and predictably rolled Tarleton State. They remain in the top 15 at KenPom and are a top five offensive team.
Washington State has lost three of four, including close games to Utah (in overtime) and UNLV (who was still undefeated at the time). So the Cougs are getting some respect from the oddsmakers here. But not from the public, who has already bet this number up a couple points.
I agree with the line move. Wazzu turns the ball over way too much and that plays right into the hands of Baylor, who is 24th in the country in turnover percentage and 36th in steal percentage. Probably going to be too much offense from the Bears as well. They average 84.6 points/game while Wazzu only averages 71.6. Really that second number is inflated. The Cougs have had three big offensive games so far (96, 82 and 83) but otherwise haven’t topped 70. They had just 65 in the OT loss at Utah. 8* |
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12-17-22 | Abilene Christian -4.5 v. CS Bakersfield | Top | 65-59 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
Abilene Christian comes into this game as the road favorite and has already taken significant money against a Cal State Bakersfield team that I’d have little faith in. Our side comes in having won four of five, including an 84-63 beatdown of Texas A&M-Commerce last Saturday.
CS-Bakersfield plays slow (341st in adjusted tempo) and is also one of the worst offensive teams in the entire country (342nd). There’s just not much to like about the Roadrunners right now. In their last three games vs. D-I opponents, they have failed to score more than 54 points. This will be their first time taking the court in 11 days. So on top of everything, they could be rusty. Abilene Christian averages 76.4 points while outscoring opponents by 10.6 points per game. I just don’t think this spread is large enough, even with the Wildcats being the road team. 10* |
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12-17-22 | Pelicans +3.5 v. Suns | Top | 114-118 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
There is no doubt the Suns will be looking to avenge a pair of losses in New Orleans last week. But equally perturbed will be the Pelicans, who just dropped two in a row at Utah. I’ve got the Pelicans rated as the better team here and thus will be taking the points.
NO had won seven straight before those two losses in Salt Lake City. Their last two wins were both against the Suns as they won 128-117 and 129-124 at home. That second win required overtime. The pattern was then repeated in Utah with the second of the two games going to OT, only this time the Pelicans lost both times.
The Suns were on an 0-5 SU/ATS tailspin before catching a break and facing the Clippers, who sat four starters including Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, on Thursday. So there’s really no debate as to which of the teams involved tonight has been playing better.
New Orleans is a top five team both on offense and defense. They are the only team in the league that can say that. They have the best point differential this year among Western Conference teams. Their record would be a lot better if not for four overtime losses. The Suns are missing both Cameron Payne and DeAndre Ayton. Neither played Thursday and both are listed as being OUT for tonight. Give me the the Pelicans, off back to back losses and at full strength, catching the points. 10* |
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12-16-22 | Creighton v. Marquette -3.5 | Top | 58-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
A lot of people are probably going to want to jump on Creighton here as the Bluejays have dropped five in a row, the last three all coming as favorites. But Ryan Kalkbrenner remains questionable due to illness and this Marquette team is no joke. Therefore, now is NOT the time to be jumping on the Bluejays. While Creighton has dropped five straight, Marquette has suffered only three losses all year. All three were by five points or less, to teams ranked in the Top 40 at KenPom: Purdue, Miss State and Wisconsin. The last loss (Wisconsin) was an overtime game. The Golden Eagles are coming off a 79-64 win at Notre Dame on Sunday. I played them there and will do so again today. Against Notre Dame, the Golden Eagles won despite shooting only 26% from three. Winning at South Bend is not easy, especially when the visitor isn’t making threes. So tip your cap to Marquette there. Overall, this team is shooting very well this season; at nearly 50% from the field. Creighton does not defend the three-point line particularly well, ranking 240th in the country in doing so. This is a huge revenge spot for Marquette, who has lost the last four meetings with Creighton. Even if Kalkbrenner does play, don’t expect him to be that effective. At 7-4 ATS on the season, Marquette has been beating oddsmakers’ expectations and they are a strong home team (just two losses in the calendar year at Fiserv Forum). Lay the points. 10* |
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12-16-22 | Pacers +8 v. Cavs | Top | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
Cleveland has been one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, if not the entire NBA, all year long. But this is too many points to lay in a division matchup. Only one time since 11/25 have the Cavs won back to back games. They are coming off a 105-90 win at Dallas Wednesday night. The Cavs’ defensive numbers have been outstanding. But Indiana comes in having scored 121 or more in three of its last four games and just beat the Warriors 48 hours ago. Revenge is a factor here as the Pacers were swept in the season series last year. Three of those games were decided by seven points or less. Indiana also has been good when facing conference foes this season. They are 10-6 straight up and against the number vs. the rest of the East. I know Cleveland’s defensive numbers and home record makes for a scary fade here. But they are just 2-8 ATS when off a non-conference game and 1-5 ATS off their previous six SU wins. Take the points. 10* |
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12-15-22 | Cal-Irvine v. Santa Clara -1.5 | Top | 74-86 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
Santa Clara is going to be looking to reverse some trends here, namely the fact they are 0-5 ATS their last five games overall and 0-6 ATS the L6 meetings with tonight’s opponent, UC Irvine (also 0-6 straight up!)
Now while the Broncos haven’t been covering, they’ve been (mostly) winning. Their only SU loss since Thanksgiving came here at home to San Jose State, 75-64, as an 8.5-point favorite here at home.
They bounced back though by defeating Portland State 78-75, but as you already know did not cover the number. The Broncos were favored to win that game by 9.5 points.
Tonight, there really is no worry about winning and not covering as it’s a much shorter number vs. UC Irvine, a team that had dropped two in a row before winning at South Dakota on Saturday. I know it’s a shorter turnaround (between games) for Santa Clara, but I like them to get the job done tonight. I do not think UC Irvine can continue to shoot 41% from three-point land nor do I believe their opponents will continue to shoot at a 28.8% clip from behind the arc. Lay the short number here. 10* |
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12-15-22 | Pelicans -1.5 v. Jazz | Top | 129-132 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
The Pelicans are looking to avenge a 21-point loss they suffered right here in Salt Lake City two nights ago. I think they do it. Yes, I did have the Pellies on Tuesday. But I don’t see them shooting just 39.8% overall again nor do I see them missing 23 of 27 three-point attempts as they did last time.
The Pelicans had won seven in a row before losing to the Jazz. They still have the best record, point differential and net efficiency among Western Conference teams, so there’s no reason to panic after one bad loss. I believe this team is simply better than Utah.
The Jazz were supposed to be bottom-feeders this season, but have surprised with a winning record (16-14 overall). I’m still not convinced they can remain “above water” though. They are a bottom 10 team defensively, which is another reason I don’t see New Orleans’ poor shooting from Tuesday repeating itself here.
Another thing to note from Tuesday. Zion Williamson played only 26 minutes due to foul trouble. He still scored 26 points. New Orleans ranks third on the defensive end, so that’s a big edge. When off a SU loss as a favorite this year, they are a perfect 4-0 SU. Lay the small number. 10* |
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12-14-22 | Wolves v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 88-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
Now seems like a good time to buy the Clippers. They are healthy with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George both playing and just dismantled the Celtics on Monday (much to my dismay) 113-93 here at home. With Leonard and George on the floor together, this team is +18.3 per 100 possessions with a 99.3 defensive rating. Those are the kinds of numbers that were expected from a team many predicted could win the NBA Finals this season.
On the other hand, the Timberwolves haven’t seemed right all season. They are without Karl-Anthony Towns and just got beat twice in Portland. This is now their fourth road game in the last six days.
The most encouraging sign for the Clippers is that Leonard just scored 25 points on 10 of 12 shooting against Boston, his best game in some time.
I already mentioned the Clippers’ defensive rating when both Leonard and George are out there. I think that they are likely to hold the T’wolves in check tonight. Minny has shot 51.4% over its last five games. That’s simply not likely to continue, which means trouble considering they’ve lost three of those last five games anyway. The Clippers were the first team all year to hold Boston under 100 points. The Timberwolves simply have not been a good team to bet on this season as they are only 10-17 ATS overall including 3-6 as a dog. 8* |
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12-14-22 | Cal-Riverside v. Oregon -13.5 | Top | 65-71 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
It was a rough start to the season in Eugene as, at one point, Oregon was down to just six scholarship players. After six games, they were 2-4 straight up. But the ship seems to have been righted as the Ducks have covered four in a row, winning three of those straight up (only SU loss was to UCLA). I expect the home team to win big tonight against UC Riverside, who will be playing its third straight road game and second in the last four days. The Highlanders beat Idaho 76-74 on Sunday, however did not cover the spread as six-point favorites. They are outclassed in this matchup. So far, UC Riverside has faced two opponents inside the KenPom top 100, Colorado and Creighton. They lost those two games by a combined 45 points. Another double digit loss is on the way. Oregon will enjoy a nice size advantage in tonight’s matchup. In fact, by being the tallest team in the country, they enjoy a size advantage in every matchup. UC Riverside does not hit enough threes to counteract that. When facing D-I opponents, the Highlanders are barely hitting 30% from downtown. The Ducks are 4-1 ATS as a favorite this season and allowing only 59.3 points/game at home. Their resurgence continues here. 10* |
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12-13-22 | Pelicans -1.5 v. Jazz | Top | 100-121 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
Here’s a spread that I don’t get. New Orleans, who now owns the best point differential in the entire NBA, is only laying a bucket to Utah? I realize that the Jazz have exceeded expectations to start the 2022-23 campaign, but they’ve recently dropped two straight and 8 out of their last 11. The Pelicans have won their last seven games.
When these teams played back in October, the Pelicans went off as eight-point home favorites. The Jazz ended up winning 122-121 in overtime. However, that was a fluky game where both Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson got hurt.
Ingram remains out for New Orleans, but it hasn’t mattered as the Pelicans just beat the Suns twice. This team ranks 4th in the league in offensive efficiency and is going against a Jazz team that is bottom five in defensive efficiency.
Utah gets a lot of its points via second chance opportunities, but New Orleans is clearly the better rebounding team here and will limit the number of offensive rebounds for the Jazz. Utah has been missing a number of key players recently, but that alone does not excuse the recent skid. I simply think the oddsmakers set a bad number for this matchup. The Jazz are likely to continue regressing while the Pelicans are a top five team in the league. Lay it! 10* |
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12-12-22 | Celtics -3.5 v. Clippers | Top | 93-113 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
Boston is looking to bounce back from what was just their third loss since November 4th. The Celtics took it on the chin Saturday, losing by 16 at Golden State. The trends support a play on them here as this season has seen the team go 4-1 SU off a loss and they are outscoring their opponents by 7.4 points/game in this spot.
This is a double revenge spot for the Celtics, who lost both meetings to the Clippers last year. Road favorites playing with double revenge have hit 61% since 2018-19 and road favorites off a loss vs. an opponent off a win are hitting 60% over the last decade.
The Clippers are healthy now, but even so, Boston is the better team here. No team can match the Celtics’ scoring differential or net efficiency this season. They also have a historically great offense while the Clippers are 27th in offensive efficiency.
The Clips have been shooting better from three recently, but Boston has been elite at defending the three-point line. The Golden State result was the exception to that rule. No Al Horford tonight for Boston, but they are 6-1 with him out of the lineup. Also, while the Celtics are playing a fifth consecutive road game, the Clippers have been busy as well. Tonight marks their fourth game in six days and fifth in the last eight days. Kawhi Leonard, set to play for just the ninth time tonight, is on a minutes restriction and posting career-worst numbers. The Celtics are 5-0 SU this season on the front end of a back to back. 10* |
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12-12-22 | Creighton v. Arizona State +4 | Top | 71-73 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Two teams trending in very different directions meet Monday night in Las Vegas with Arizona State taking on Creighton.
The unranked Sun Devils have won seven in a row (6-1 ATS) since taking their only loss of the season, which was by a single point, in overtime, to Texas Southern. While the loss of Marcus Bagley (“stepped away from the team”) has hurt ASU a bit offensively, this team gets it done with defense. They are 17th in defensive efficiency at KenPom and top 10 in both 2-point and 3-point FG% defense.
Meanwhile, #21 Creighton is reeling right now, having dropped four in a row after a 6-0 start. Worth monitoring is the status of Ryan Kalkbrenner, who missed the last game due to an illness. Without Kalkbrenner, the Bluejays lost 83-80 to BYU. His replacement in the starting lineup, Frederick King, had just four points and no rebounds in 18 minutes. BYU dominated them in the paint, 42-24.
Even if Kalkbrenner is able to go tonight, I still like Arizona State. It’s pretty darn impressive - at least to me - that they are 9-1 straight up despite shooting only 30% from three-point range. Sooner or later, the three-point shooting will improve and then the Sun Devils will be even tougher to stop. Based on how this line has moved, it looks like Kalkbrenner is going to play. But still, I am taking the points in what should be a close game. Though three of Creighton’s four straight losses ended up close (five points or less), they really didn’t look good in any of them. ASU’s defense carries them to another cover and possibly another SU win. 10* |
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12-11-22 | Marquette -1 v. Notre Dame | Top | 79-64 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
Marquette’s only game over the last eight days was a 90-78 win over NC Central. They did not cover the large 19.5-point spread. Prior to that the Golden Eagles turned in a monster performance against Baylor (won 96-70) but then lost in overtime to Wisconsin (80-77). They come into Sunday at 7-3 SU, 5-4-1 ATS overall.
Pretty similar deal with Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have played just once over the last eight days and they failed to cover in a tighter than expected 81-75 victory over Boston U. Before that they upset Michigan State, then lost outright to Syracuse, both here at home.
So it seems like a pretty even matchup Sunday at 4:30 ET on ESPN2. But it’s pretty telling that Marquette is favored. They are the better team. In terms of offensive efficiency, the teams have pretty similar ratings (28th for Marquette, 26th for ND). But defensively, Marquette is far ahead (67 vs. 174).
Look for the Golden Eagles to do damage from three-point land. That’s where they get roughly one-third of their scoring. They average 9.3 makes per game. The Notre Dame defense is allowing 35% three-point shooting for the season, which is outside the Top 200. Let’s go back to that final score vs. Boston U. ND won 81-75. The Irish are 0-3 ATS this season after a game where they scored 80 or more points. They gave up 46 points in the second half to the Terriers. Marquette was almost up 30 in the second half of their last game. 10* |
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12-10-22 | Mavs v. Bulls -1.5 | Top | 115-144 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
The Bulls have a key advantage coming into this Saturday night tilt and that’s they’re rested while Dallas just lost a heartbreaker last night at home to Milwaukee.
Now the Bulls have been woefully inconsistent all year with their longest win streak at just two games. They did win last time out, which was Wednesday, beating Washington 110-107. But the Bulls did not cover, dropping them to 0-4 ATS L4 games.
But they did lead most of the way against Washington, only briefly trailing a couple of times after the first quarter. That was a home game for the Bulls, as is this. I’ll point out that the Bulls have played a pretty tough schedule to this point.
Going from home to the road, in the second night of a back to back, off two straight one-point games is just a terrible situation for these Mavericks. Especially after they were outscored 33-21 in the fourth quarter last night. This team has also been inconsistent and them going 10 of 24 from the free throw line last night should give you pause. On the road, the Mavs are only 4-8 SU and 3-7 against the spread. Last night was also a late game, which doesn’t help. 10* |
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12-10-22 | Clemson v. Loyola-Chicago +4.5 | Top | 58-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
This game is being played in Atlanta (State Farm Arena) as part of the 2022 “Holiday Hoopsgiving” event.
It’s not been a great start to the year for Loyola, who is 4-5 straight up and 2-7 against the spread. But I do think this is a good time to back the Ramblers, plus the points, as they are facing a Clemson team due for some shooting regression after sinking 50% (or better) of their FG attempts in four straight games.
Clemson has just two losses and both were close games. They lost by two at South Carolina (their only true road game so far) and then by three to Iowa in the Emerald Coast Classic (which was played down in Florida). But the Tigers have had their fair share of close victories as well. Beating Penn State required two overtimes and earlier this week they escaped a game with Towson, winning by just five.
Loyola started this season ranked in the Top 60 over at KenPom but have now dropped outside the Top 100. Like I said it’s a good buy low spot as this team is definitely better than what its shown. This was a Sweet 16 team last March, much to the delight of Sister Jean (now 103 years old). Clemson only beat Cal (who is horrible) by eight. Loyola has had some close losses and this will be only the second time they’ve been an underdog so far. Not sure I’m ready to buy Clemson just yet, despite its 8-2 record. They won’t continue to hit 42% from three, moving forward. Take the points. 10* |
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12-09-22 | Washington +16.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 60-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
Gonzaga is now just 2-7 against the spread this year, including 0-5 the last five games. I played against the Zags in their last game, which saw them barely get by Kent State, here at home. The market remains too high on this team and I’ll take the points against Friday with Washington coming to Spokane.
Washington is off a 73-63 win over Colorado that squared away their Pac 12 record at 1-1. The Huskies have already beaten the “other” top WCC team, that being St. Mary’s, and did so in impressive fashion by going to a neutral site and prevailing 68-64 as a 10-point underdog. Overall, the Huskies are 7-2 straight up (better record than Gonzaga!) and have covered four of their last five games.
Now Franck Kepnang is done for the season for Washington, due to a knee injury, which is a major blow. But this team plays terrific defense, which will keep them in a lot of games like this one. Huskies’ opponents are shooting only 26% from three.
They are also great at forcing turnovers, notable because Gonzaga comes in having given the ball away on 19.4% of its possessions this season. The Zags have also been bad when it comes to fouling. Washington already gets to the FT line at a decent rate and is shooting 75% there. An in-state rivalry, this game means more to UW, who has lost six straight times to the Zags. I expect the underdog to hang around in this one. Take the points. 10* |
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12-09-22 | Kings v. Cavs -5.5 | Top | 106-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Cleveland is having itself an awesome start to the season with a top five record in the league, not to mention a top three point difference and net efficiency rating. I expect the Cavaliers’ early season success to continue on Friday when they host the Sacramento Kings.
Now the Kings are also somewhat of an early season success story as they are in the top six out West, not a place anyone is accustomed to seeing them. But defensively, they have issues. They’re a bottom 10 team defensively and still give up 116 points/game.
When they went to Milwaukee on Wednesday, the Kings allowed 126 points and lost by double digits. That’s not the way they wanted to start this six-game road trip.
The Cavs, on the other hand, are the league’s best defensive team. They are also 13-4 ATS as a favorite this season and 10-1 ATS at home. None of Cleveland’s last six points have been able to score more than 102 points. Jarrett Allen being back really helps on the defensive end of the floor. We’ll have to monitor two questionable players - De’Aaron Fox for Sacramento and Donovan Mitchell for Cleveland - but at the end of the day, the Cavs’ edge defensively will be too much for the Kings to overcome. Lay the points. 10* |
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12-08-22 | Jacksonville State v. Utah -15 | Top | 58-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Utah has won three in a row and covered four in a row to get to 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS. Look for the Utes to win handily tonight against a Jacksonville State team that’s coming off some close calls and not really used to this level of competition.
Jacksonville State last played on Saturday. They went on the road and beat E Tenn St 63-61 as a 2.5 point underdog. Leading the way was Skyelar Potter with 27 points. He’s the team’s leading scorer. Notable, however, were two things. The Gamecocks really benefited from E Tenn St going 8 of 26 from three-point range. There was also a +10 advantage in free throw makes and attempts, a rarity for the ROAD team in College Basketball.
Prior to beating E Tenn St, the Gamecocks had played three other true road games. They’d lost all of them and were blown out twice, losing by 18 at New Mexico and by 42 at Alabama. In the KenPom ratings, Utah is higher than all previous Jacksonville State opponents with the exception of ‘Bama.
Jacksonville State needs to hit their threes to have any chance. But Utah is holding opponents to 22.5% shooting from behind the arc this season and allows fewer than one point per possession overall. Remember this game is at elevation, which should make it tough on the JSU shooters. Utah has gotten off to a 2-0 start in Pac 12 play, beating Arizona and Washington State. If they can beat Arizona by 15 here at home, they should be able to win by the necessary margin here tonight. 8* |
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12-06-22 | CS Bakersfield +8.5 v. San Jose State | Top | 48-58 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
San Jose State just got absolutely waxed by Arkansas over the weekend, losing by 41. After taking a shellacking like that from a Top 10 team, I worry about the Spartans’ psyche heading into this game against Cal State Bakersfield where the oddsmakers are asking them to win by a decent margin. Now things didn’t go so well for CS Bakersfield in their last game either. They lost to Dartmouth by 25. That was just the second double digit loss for the Roadrunners though and the first came at Utah. CS Bakersfield was just 3 of 12 from three in that last game. Expect them to improve on that number here as SJSU is allowing teams to make 37.3% from behind the arc. The Spartans are also a bad free throw shooting team (64.3%), which is yet another reason to want to fade them as a favorite. So in a battle of two teams off blowout losses, I’ll grab the points. It’s a low total, so with points likely at a premium it seems wise to be on the dog. The number has even dropped a bit, but there’s still plenty of value here. 10* |
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12-06-22 | St. Joe's +11.5 v. Temple | Top | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Love the spot here for St. Joe’s heading into this “Big 5” matchup with Philly rival Temple on Tuesday. The Hawks just suffered an embarrassing defeat at the hands of Fairleigh Dickinson while Temple is coming off three consecutive wins/covers. That’s opened up some real value on the underdog in this matchup.
St. Joe’s was a 12-point favorite when they lost to Fairleigh Dickinson. They were blitzed, giving up 97 points as FDU somehow shot an incomprehensible 57.6% from the field including 12 of 24 from three. I don’t see Temple doing that here.
While the Hawks have lost three of the last four games overall, including both when they were favored (also vs. USF), they do hold an outright win (as 5.5-point dogs) over another city rival (Penn) during that same stretch.
While Temple has covered three in a row as a favorite, they were 0-3 ATS laying points prior to the current streak. Just don’t think the Owls are a team built to win by margin, at least not consistently. A key thing to watch in this game is that Temple really struggles to defend the pick and roll. St. Joe’s is a top 60 PNR offense. Take the points. 10* |
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12-05-22 | Kent State +15 v. Gonzaga | Top | 66-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Interesting matchup here as Kent State is a perfect 7-0 against the spread while Gonzaga is just 1-6 ATS its last eight games.
I’m assuming that at some point the market will catchup with these two teams. But I’m not sure it has here. Gonzaga is coming off a major gag job against Baylor last Friday where it blew a seven-point lead in the final 93 seconds.
I suppose there is an argument, coming off a loss like that, the Zags will be fired up and looking to take their frustrations out. But do we really think they’ll be THAT motivated by a visit from Kent State, after losing a rematch of the Title Game from two years ago and a four-run down in Portland?
The underdog, on the other hand, should be really fired up and ready to go. This is a team that only lost by five at Houston (49-44) and its only two losses are by a combined seven points. Yes, Gonzaga’s ability to score is always a concern. But Kent State is 12th nationally in 2-point FG% defense and top six in forcing turnovers. The Golden Flashes could have pulled the outright upset at Houston had it not been for some woeful shooting from three-point range (6 of 29) and Sincere Carry (who was 2 of 22). Take the points. 10* |
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12-05-22 | Celtics v. Raptors +1.5 | Top | 116-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
The Celtics are an amazing 15-2 straight up over their last 17 games, but I think we’re catching them in a good spot (to fade) here in Toronto Monday night. This is the second night of a back to back for the reigning Eastern Conference Champs, who defeated Brooklyn last night by a score of 103-92.
Teams off a win the previous day, playing in Toronto, are just 14-24 ATS (36.8%).
Leading scorer Pascal Siakam is back for the Raptors, but he’s not the only one that turned in a big game Saturday against Orlando. O.G. Anunoby matched his season-high with 32 points in that game as the Raptors won convincingly, 121-108 and covered the spread as 11-point favorites.
Boston has yet to lose in the second night of a back to back this season, which won’t continue. They are without their two best defensive players right now, Marcus Smart and Robert Williams. Shockingly, they still held the Nets to just 92 points on Sunday, a season-low for a Celtics’ opponent. But don’t expect a repeat of that here. Toronto shot 56% as a team against Orlando. The Raptors are rested and ready here and at home where they are 9-2 SU and +5.5 points/game. Take the points. 10* |
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12-04-22 | Lakers +2.5 v. Wizards | Top | 130-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
The Lakers seem to be back on track. They just beat the Bucks on Friday, which was their seventh win in the last nine games. What was most impressive about beating the Bucks was that LA scored 133 points against the top rated defense in the league. Anthony Davis had 44 points while LeBron went for 28.
Washington is trending in the opposite direction right now. They’ve lost two straight and five of their last six. In each of those last six games, the Wizards have allowed 110 or more points. They went off as four-point favorites in the 117-116 loss to Charlotte on Friday.
The Wiz have not been blown out during this recent downturn, but there is no denying the fact they are trending in the wrong direction. They were down double digits for most of the second half against Charlotte after surrendering 72 first half points.
The Lakers, a top 10 team defensively, have posted their two highest scoring games of the season in the last week. Washington doesn’t do a good job at defending the three (37% allowed) and the Lakers should also own the paint in this matchup. I expect another big offensive night from LeBron and company against a team that is just 3-7 ATS when favored this season. 10* |
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12-04-22 | St. John's v. Iowa State -4.5 | Top | 60-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
St. John’s is still unbeaten, one of 14 teams in the country that can still say that, but I believe they’ll go down for the first time Sunday in Ames. Iowa State’s only loss was to one of the very best teams in the country (UConn), at a neutral site, and has continued to be an incredible story after going 2-22 SU two years ago.
Remember that the Cyclones have already defeated Villanova and North Carolina this season. They come in off a win over North Dakota - where they failed to cover as big 24-point favorites - but still won 63-44. Although laying points, we don’t need a big win here.
This is the final game of the Big East-Big 12 Battle. So far, the Big East holds a 5-4 head to head edge after a couple of wins on Saturday (Villanova over Oklahoma, Xavier over W Virginia). But the real interesting thing is that the home team is a perfect 9-0 straight up so far in this event, also covering the spread seven times.
St. John’s hasn’t really played anybody and this is their first true road game of the season. I’d say some of their numbers are misleading due to the lack of competition. The Red Storm did not cover in either of the last two wins, against Long Island or Niagara. Iowa State is the better defensive team in this matchup. They are surrendering an average of only 56.3 points/game thus far and only 44.7 here in Ames! Look for the ‘Clones to hand the Johnnies their first loss of the season and cover the spread in the process. 10* |
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12-03-22 | UNLV -3.5 v. San Diego | Top | 95-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
UNLV is undefeated (7-0). Only 14 other teams can still say that. The Runnin’ Rebels are allowing 57.7 points/game and have been off for a week. Look for them to roll tonight at San Diego.
San Diego has lost three times, twice by just two points. But those losses were to Utah Tech and Nicholls State, hardly the same level of competition they’ll face tonight.
The Rebels haven’t been the most prolific offensive team, but they are turning opponents over more than any team in the country. That leads to extra points that are critical when needing to cover as a favorite. They also don’t foul much.
San Diego is letting teams shoot 48% so the UNLV offensive effort should be better than normal tonight. Not only are the Torerors 0 for their last 5 (straight up) as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points, but they are 5-24 SU L29 as a dog! UNLV is far superior than what this line suggests. 10* |
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12-03-22 | College of Charleston -11.5 v. The Citadel | Top | 79-57 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
Charleston has gotten off to a nice start at 7-1, which includes winning their home tournament. Now three of their wins (Richmond, Va Tech and Kent St) were all by three points. But remember that the Cougars’ only loss, to North Carolina, had a misleading 102-86 final score. The Cougs led that game into the second half.
Now this will be Charleston’s first time leaving home since that loss to North Carolina and also their first time laying double digits this season. But I think they’ll be up for the “challenge” against The Citadel, who may be looking ahead to their own game vs. UNC in 10 days.
The Citadel was blown out at Butler earlier this year, losing by 47. Since then, they’ve won three of four with the only loss by three points. But the level of competition has not been strong and I believe the Bulldogs are severely outclassed here.
Charleston likes to play fast as they are inside the Top 50 nationally adjusted tempo. That’s going to be a problem for The Citadel, who only averages 67.7 points on 43% shooting when you remove non-DI competition. While the teams haven’t met since 2016, this is a bit of a local rivalry (campuses just 2 miles apart) and Charleston has captured the L10 meetings. They’ll look to win in blowout fashion here. 8* |
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12-01-22 | Cornell v. Delaware -5 | Top | 74-67 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
Delaware is only 3-3 but all three losses occurred away from home, one of them at Duke. In fact, this will be just the second home game for the Blue Hens with the first one being the season opener, which was a 78-54 win over non-DI Wilmington. Off the loss at Penn Sunday, I look for Delaware to bounce back tonight.
Cornell makes its two straight Ivy League opponents for Delaware, but the Big Red are not as good as Penn. They do play faster and that has led to 87.4 points/game during a five-game win streak. But those five wins have been against SUNY-Delhi, St. Francis (PA), Ithaca, Canisius and Monmouth. Not exactly a “murderer’s row” there.
We’ve already seen this line tick up a bit and I completely agree with the move. I know Delaware struggled to get stops against Penn and that’s concerning when turning around and facing an offense like Cornell. But this being a home game is huge for the Blue Hens.
They’ve won 16 of their last 24 games here and are also 22-6 straight up their last 28 games as a favorite. With such a short number, that seems worth mentioning. This is back to back road games for Cornell and while there’s been nearly a week between games, the Big Red simply can’t continue to shoot as well as they have. Lay the points. 10* |
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11-30-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves +2.5 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Things are not looking good in Minnesota right now. Following three straight losses where the team posted a -11.9 net rating, the Timberwolves are a game below .500 and without Karl-Anthony Towns.
But should the T’wolves be a dog at home against Memphis, who is still without Desmond Bane? I don’t think so. Dillon Brooks is also questionable to play tonight for the Grizzlies.
When these teams met in Memphis 19 days ago, the Grizzlies had Bane in the lineup and closed as only four-point favorites at home. They won 114-103 but I don’t think they should be laying a similar number, on the road, in tonight’s rematch.
The experiment with KAT and Rudy Gobert had not been working for Minnesota. So perhaps, short-term, KAT’s absence might be a positive. With one fewer big on the floor, the offense might open up and the T’wolves do turn the ball over less when KAT is not out there. This will be the third time this year that Minnesota enters a game off three straight losses. They are 2-0 ATS the previous two times. Take the points against a Memphis team that is just 2-7 ATS on the road. 10* |
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11-30-22 | Rutgers v. Miami-FL -2.5 | Top | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Miami treated me kindly on Sunday at UCF as they were my 10* Game of the Month and delivered (just barely) an ATS win. The Hurricanes won by 2 (66-64) as 1.5-point favorites. Back in Coral Gables, I’m expecting a much larger margin of victory tonight as “The U” hosts Rutgers as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge.
The Hurricanes brought back a ton of experience from a group that made it to the Elite Eight last March. Jim Larranaga also did a good job in the transfer portal and the result is he has a team with four double digit scorers, led by Isaiah Wong, who is the team leader in points, assists and steals.
This will be Rutgers’ first true road game this season. They’ve already lost on a neutral floor to Temple, which is the only game this season where they weren’t at home. Miami not only has the win at UCF, but also a neutral court victory over Providence. They’ve won the first four home games by an average of 19 points.
Rutgers has been good defensively, but lacks experience and that’s what has me worried for them heading into tonight’s contest. KenPom has Miami as a Top 27 team in the country in offensive efficiency. Rutgers has not faced anyone nearly as good as the Hurricanes so far, so expect them to fail their first road test. 10* |
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11-30-22 | 76ers +4 v. Cavs | Top | 85-113 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Philadelphia has not only covered three straight, but also eight of their last nine games. Joel Embiid is now back in the lineup and he just went off for 30-8-7 in the team’s 104-101 triumph over Atlanta on Monday.
After that one-game stop at home, the Sixers are back out on the road where they’ll face another top Eastern Conference team. Cleveland has been a pleasant surprise thus far, ranking second in the East in both point differential and net efficiency.
But the Sixers are right behind the Cavs in those regards and are also one of only three teams with a higher defensive efficiency rating than Cleveland.
After getting off to such a great start, the Cavs are only 5-5 SU in their L10 games. They’ve ruled out both Jarrett Allen and Kevin Love tonight, the former being a far more significant loss. Over the last two seasons, their record without Allen in the lineup is just 10-20. That includes 1-3 so far this season. I recognize Philly is without James Harden and Tyrese Maxey. But they’ve got Embiid and he should be the difference maker tonight. Take the points with the 76ers. 10* |
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11-29-22 | Clippers v. Blazers -3.5 | Top | 118-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
The Clippers beat Indiana on Sunday, but are still without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. So we’ll fade this short-handed team in Portland tonight as the Blazers are a lot better than the Pacers, despite losses in five of the last six games.
Portland is still in the top six of the West, right behind the Clippers, with one fewer win due to playing one fewer game.
Now Damian Lillard is out for the Blazers. So there will be a lot of star power missing in this one. But Jerami Grant is picking up the slack with 29 points in the last game, which followed a career-high 44 in a win over the Knicks Friday.
In addition to no George and no Leonard, the Clippers are also missing Luke Kennard and John Wall. They won’t be getting another game from Ivica Zubac like they did Sunday. Zubac is averaging a double double, but the 31 points and 29 rebounds vs. Indiana was a fairly ridiculous effort. Portland is 3-0 ATS when coming off a double digit loss. 10* |
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11-29-22 | Georgia Tech v. Iowa -16 | Top | 65-81 | Push | 0 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Iowa should roll here in what promises to be another easy win for the Big 10 against the ACC. The Hawkeyes come in at 5-1 on the season and, as per usual, are one of the more lethal offensive teams in the country. KenPom has them seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Now some might make the case that the Hawkeyes have been trending down ever since their big 16-point win at Seton Hall. They did blow out Omaha by 36 (hanging 100 in the process), however then only managed to beat Clemson (another ACC team) by three points and then lost to TCU, getting held to a season-low 66 points.
But Georgia Tech is not TCU. The Yellow Jackets are outside the Top 120 at KenPom and were blown out by Marquette, losing on a neutral floor by 24. They also lost to Utah.
Every GT game with an O/U line has stayed Under, but that figures to probably change after tonight. In three previous games here in Iowa City, the Hawkeyes have scored 100+ twice and 89 in the other game. Just too much offense from Iowa in this one for the underdog to stay within the number. Georgia Tech is shooting below 30% from three, so I just don’t see how they can stay close. This team barely won at Georgia State. Iowa has covered 15 of the last 19 times it has been a home favorite of 12.5 or more points. 8* |
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11-29-22 | Maryland -12.5 v. Louisville | Top | 79-54 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
There are a couple of Big 10-ACC Challenge matchups today where I think the Big 10 team should roll. This is definitely one of them as Maryland faces a Louisville team that could be the biggest disaster in the entire country right now.
Louisville is not just 0-6 straight up, its worst start in over 80 years, but also 0-6 against the spread. They are one of just eight teams left that hasn’t covered a single spread. The season started with three straight one-point losses. Things have only gotten worse for the Cardinals since then. They lost to Arkansas, Texas Tech and Cincinnati by a combined 77 points. None of the games ended up closer than 19.
Maryland is undefeated (6-0) and on par with those last three teams that Louisville has faced. Actually, the Terrapins are substantially better than Cincinnati. KenPom also has them rated above Texas Tech. They are ranked 22nd in the latest AP Poll, which is in line with KenPom.
The Terps six wins have come by an average of 21.3 points/game and they are allowing just 61.3 points/game. All six wins have been by at least 16 points and they are 5-1 ATS. They have averaged 93 points themselves in the last three games and have beaten the likes of Miami FL and St. Louis. This should be another long night for Louisville, who struggles to take care of the basketball. 10* |
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11-27-22 | Miami-FL -1.5 v. UCF | Top | 66-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
We’ve got two 5-1 teams from the Sunshine State squaring off here. Miami FL is looking to avenge a six-point loss from last year. That previous matchup took place in Coral Gables and the Hurricanes were three-point favorites. You may recall that the ‘Canes ended up making it all the way to the Elite 8.
That loss last year took place in just the second game of the season. Despite the rematch, Miami is again a slight favorite to win here. This is the first true road game for Jim Larranga’s team, which has looked good so far with the exception of an 18-point loss to Maryland.
UCF lost to UNC Asheville (98-95) in the season opener. Since then, the Knights have stormed back to win and cover five in a row. They won a tournament in the Bahamas, then came back home to defeat Evansville by 20 earlier this week.
But this is a tough matchup for UCF. Miami has better guard play and I think UCF’s defensive numbers are a bit fraudulent. The Knights were able to slow down Santa Clara in the Bahamas. But Miami as the most efficient offense UCF has seen this year.
The Canes are 14-7 ATS L21 road games and 12-4 ATS L16 against teams that allowed fewer than 64.5 points/game. Lay the short number. 10* |
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11-25-22 | Butler +1.5 v. NC State | Top | 61-76 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Butler and North Carolina State will wrap up the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament Friday night with fifth place on the line.
Butler was crushed in its first game here, losing 71-45 to Tennessee (was close for a half). But the Bulldogs bounced back with a 75-70 win over BYU last night. NC State got a lucky cover in its first game here (thanks to a last-second three), an 80-74 loss to Kansas. The Wolfpack then surprised me a bit by defeating Dayton 76-64 as a three-point underdog last night.
Looking at NC State as a whole, they are overly reliant on three-pointers to score and weak on the interior defensively.
Even in the blowout loss to Tennessee, Butler did a good job defensively, allowing only 1.03 points/possession. The transfer portal has given Butler a key edge here. They now have Manny Bates, who chose to leave Raleigh. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Bates be the difference tonight. 10* |
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11-23-22 | Tennessee v. Butler +8 | Top | 71-45 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
The nightcap in the Battle 4 Atlantis features #22 Tennessee taking on Butler. Need I remind you that the Volunteers have already lost a game this year, a real stunner to Colorado. The final score there was 78-66, a game the Vols were supposed to win by 16 points.
Butler also has a loss, on the road to Penn State, but I think that the Bulldogs’ offense has looked great so far. They’ve put up 89 or more points three times for Thad Matta, who is back here after becoming the winningest coach in Ohio State history.
Matta has five double digit scorers right now and Butler is top five in the country in both eFG% and two-point FG%. I know that Tennessee is solid defensively (#3 in efficiency per KenPom), but the Bulldogs will find a way to score enough to cover this generous spread.
Tennessee is also turning the ball over more than you’d like to see. The team’s point guard from last season, Kennedy Chandler, is now in the NBA. The Vols will obviously look to shoot a high-volume of threes here, but the only made 27% against Colorado, notable because that’s the only time so far they’ve played away from Knoxville. In fact, Rick Barnes’ team is shooting just 37% overall from the field. I think the favorite struggles to score here and that leads to, at the very least, an ATS loss for UT. This is what I’d consider to be a “generous” number. 10* |
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11-23-22 | Creighton v. Arizona -2 | Top | 79-81 | Push | 0 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
The Final of the Maui Invitational should be a good one as we’ve got two Top 15 teams set to do battle - #10 Creighton and #14 Arizona. Both teams remain undefeated with Creighton 6-0 and Arizona 5-0. But, if I can state the obvious, someone is heading for their first loss here.
Backing Creighton yesterday paid off for me as the Bluejays handed Arkansas its first loss of the season. As I said, that was a good matchup for Creighton as the Razorbacks are not particularly good at shooting threes and Creighton takes good care of the basketball.
It also helps that the Bluejays have shot the lights out thus far. They are making 52% of their field goal attempts thus far, which probably won’t continue. They shot 58.5% yesterday vs. Arkansas.
Arizona does a good job at defending the interior, which is where Creighton finds a lot of its offensive success. Creighton’s win was impressive yesterday and I certainly enjoyed it. But Arizona beating San Diego State by 17 was even more impressive. Talk about offense. The Wildcats scored 87 points yesterday and that was their lowest scoring game of the season! Three times they’ve hit 100! I’m laying the points. 10* |
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11-23-22 | Kansas -8.5 v. NC State | Top | 80-74 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
Two unbeaten 4-0 teams will tip off the Battle 4 Atlantis Wednesday afternoon, but there’s obviously a big gulf in class between #3 Kansas and unranked North Carolina State.
The big story here is that Bill Self will be on the Jayhawks’ bench for the first time this season, after serving a self-imposed four-game suspension. I think that, and the close call against Southern Utah (just a six-point win), will have KU properly motivated for this tournament contest.
Remember that Kansas already holds a win over Duke in the Champions Classic. Jalen Wilson is leading the team with 24.5 points/game and has set career highs in points each of the last two games, including 33 vs. Southern Utah.
This Battle 4 Atlantis tournament marks the first time NC State has left home this season. They are really diving into the deep end here after facing Austin Peay, Campbell, FIU and Elon all in the comfortable confines of Raleigh. The Wolfpack like to take a lot of threes, but so far Kansas has held its opponents to 25.5% from behind the arc. NC State, projected for a 10th place finish in the ACC this year, is going to struggle defensively in this matchup. Particular when it comes to preventing Kansas’ wings from driving to the hoop. Since the start of 2020-21, the Wolfpack have covered the number just one-third of the time (20-40 ATS) and are 12-26 ATS vs. winning teams. Lay it. 10* |
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11-22-22 | Creighton +2 v. Arkansas | Top | 90-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Creighton and Arkansas are two teams coming off impressive wins Monday in Maui. The Bluejays beat Texas Tech 76-65 while the Razorbacks smoked hapless Louisville 80-54. These two teams are now a combined 9-0 straight up to start the year with Creighton at 5-0 and Arkansas 4-0. Only one can remain unbeaten after Tuesday, obviously. While Arkansas’ margin of victory was greater on Monday, I’d argue Creighton’s win was more impressive, given who they beat. This could also be the spot where not having five-star recruit Nick Smith Jr (listed as “day to day”) finally catches up with the Razorbacks. The biggest area of concern for Creighton is defending the three-point line. But fortunately for them, Arkansas does not make, or even take, a ton of threes. The Hogs are shooting just 30% from deep through four games and average only five makes per game. Where Arkansas thrives is forcing turnovers. But Creighton is well-suited to counteract that as they don’t turn it over much, ranking 13th in the country in TO rate. With four double digit scorers, Creighton is shooting the ball exceptionally well thus far. Look for them to prevail in this battle of Top 10 teams. 10* |
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11-22-22 | Nets -7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 106-115 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
This is all about which team is at full strength and which team isn’t. Brooklyn has Kyrie Irving back and looks ready to make a move in the Eastern Conference. Philadelphia won’t have Joel Embiid, James Harden or Tyrese Maxey tonight. That’s their three best players!
As a result, I’m laying the points with the Nets tonight. In Irving’s return Sunday, they shot 60% from the field. Ben Simmons even had 22 points (a season-high).
Irving had 14. Durant had 26, so he’s scored at least 25 in all 17 games this season. There’s just too many options here for Philly to slow down.
The Sixers have played 97 possessions this season without Embiid, Harden and Maxey on the floor. They’ve been dominated during that time, getting outscored by almost 16 points. Both the offensive and defensive numbers take a major hit. This game could get ugly in a hurry. It should be an easy double digit win for the visitors. 10* |
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11-22-22 | San Francisco -1 v. Wichita State | Top | 67-63 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
The Finals of the Hall of Fame Classic (played in Kansas City) go down Tuesday afternoon with 5-0 San Francisco taking on 3-1 Wichita State. Both teams won their semifinal games in impressive fashion yesterday. USF knocked off Northern Iowa 75-69 while Wichita State beat Grand Canyon 55-43.
We’ve already seen a change in favorite with the line moving in San Francisco’s direction. Considering the Dons failed to cover against Northern Iowa (were -7), that’s pretty interesting, but I also happen to agree with the line move.
The Dons like to play fast, much faster than Wichita State would like, and they take a lot of threes. They were 14 of 36 from behind the arc yesterday. The fact they were behind by 11 entering halftime may not sound all that encouraging, but the way they stormed back in the second half was. Also, while the Dons do love to shoot the three, you’ve got to expect they’ll make more than 11 two-point field goals in this game (that’s how many they made vs. N Iowa).
Wichita State is rightly earning praise following wins over Richmond and Grand Canyon, but let’s not forget this team also lost - as a 16-point favorite - at home to Alcorn State. I just don’t see the Shockers (57, 56, 55 points L3 games) scoring enough to stick with San Francisco this afternoon. Teams are shooting just 22% from three against Wichita State this season. There’s simply no way that can continue. San Francisco is the ideal team to send the Shockers’ 3-point defense into negative regression. Look out for Khalil Shabazz, who had 24 points yesterday for the Dons. 10* |
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11-21-22 | Ohio State v. San Diego State -4.5 | Top | 77-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
We head to Maui for our third and final College Hoops selection for the night. San Diego State is a favorite here over Ohio State and I expect the Aztecs to cover the number here. San Diego State is a team that I’ve played before. The last time the Aztecs took the court, I laid a similar number (on the road) to Stanford and they easily came out ahead, 74-62. The Aztecs are outstanding defensively as they were a year ago. Last year they ended up #2 in the country at KenPom in defensive efficiency. So far this season, they are eighth. In terms of experience, SDSU has the edge here with four of last year’s five starters returning. They also added a key piece via the transfer portal with Darrion Trammell, who had averaged 19.5 points the first two games before going 0 for 5 from the field against Stanford. I’d expect a bounce back from Trammell tonight. Ohio State had to hit the transfer portal hard after losing the likes of E.J. Liddell and Malakai Branham. Holden, Likekele and McNeil have all proven that they can be key contributors, but the relatively young Buckeyes have yet to face an opponent that’s this challenging defensively. Lay the points. 10* |
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11-21-22 | Georgia Tech v. Utah -4.5 | Top | 64-68 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
Utah takes on Georgia Tech here as part of the Fort Myers Tipoff. These teams are in the event’s “Beach Division.” Every team from the “Beach Division” was successful in games vs. teams from the “Palms Division” with one exception, that being Utah, who lost 65-55 to Sam Houston State as a 10-point favorite. As a result of that embarrassing defeat, expect the Utes to come out motivated tonight. First off, SHSU had previously beaten Oklahoma before beating the Utes. The other big takeaway from that game is how SHSU, a team that was making only 50% of its free throws, went 12 of 14 from the line against Utah. Utah is usually pretty sound defensively. They’re allowing a FG% of just 34.0 and 53.7 points/game. I don’t think it will be very difficult to guard a Georgia Tech team that is only averaging five made three-pointers per game thus far. The Yellow Jackets are 3-0 following an 18-point win over Northern Illinois last week. But this is easily their toughest test yet and being so limited offensively, I expect the underdog to struggle. One of the tallest teams in the entire country, look for Utah to dominate the boards in this matchup. We’re getting a cheap price on the Utes because of the previous result. Take advantage. 10* |
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11-20-22 | Virginia v. Illinois -1 | Top | 70-61 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
This is the Final of the Continental Tire Main Event in Las Vegas. #16 Virginia upset #5 Baylor to get here while #19 Illinois rallied back to beat #8 UCLA. Whoever wins this thing is going to have a nice mark on their resume.
I like Illinois to win. Here’s the thing. Virginia just can’t possibly hope to shoot the ball as well here as they did vs. Baylor.
The Cavaliers made 55.6% of their overall field goal attempts on Friday and were 9 of 14 from downtown. They also attempted 35 free throws and made 27.
Illinois, I believe, has the edge here both on the inside and from behind the arc. Terrance Shannon Jr, a transfer from Texas Tech, is the player to watch. He scored 29 points against UCLA and was 8 of 9 from three. Virginia has been uncharacteristically bad at defending the three-point line so far. They rank outside the top 300 in 3pt% allowed. Illinois scored 51 pts in the second half vs. UCLA after going for 103 against Monmouth and 86.5 PPG in the two contests before that. 10* |
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11-19-22 | Wolves +1.5 v. 76ers | Top | 112-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
We all understand that this is the end of a four-game road trip for Minnesota, who can now say they have won back to back games for the first time in November.
Normally, the end of a trip like this can be a bad spot. But that’s not really the case tonight for the Timberwolves, who have had the last two days off. They also had two days off prior to beating Orlando 126-108 Weds night.
The opposition played last night, and for Philadelphia it was a hard-fought win here at home vs. Milwaukee. But the Sixers didn’t come out unscathed. Already missing James Harden from the lineup, they saw Tyrese Maxey go down with a foot injury on Friday.
So even though this will be their fourth straight game at home and Minnesota’s fourth straight road game, the situation is MUCH worse here for Philly. The T’wolves have posted a 127.5 offensive efficiency rating in the last two games, shooting 54% overall and 40% from three. They are in much better shape than the Sixers heading into Saturday. 10* |
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11-18-22 | Indiana -2.5 v. Xavier | Top | 81-79 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
Lots of neutral site tournament action in Friday College Hoops, but here we’ve got Indiana traveling to Xavier for a true road game as part of the Gavitt Games. I think the Hoosiers are - by far - the better team here and will cover the spread without much trouble.
Morehead State and Bethune-Cookman are hardly what I’d call “high-caliber” opposition, but those first two IU opponents didn’t stand a chance, losing 35 and 52 respectively. The Hoosiers have shot almost 60% from the field so far and Mike Woodson has a deep team here.
Many believe Woodson’s team is going to win the Big 10 this year and I’m not going to disagree with that assessment, especially with what we’re also seeing at the defensive end (allowing just .664 points/possession).
Sean Miller is back at Xavier for a second stint. But I’m not really high on this Musketeers team despite starting the year with three double digit wins (over Morgan State, Montana and Fairfield). There’s no way they will continue to shoot 45.5% from three. First-team All Big East selection Colby Jones sat out against Fairfield due to an ankle injury suffered in practice. They didn’t need him in the last game, but Jones would be a significant loss going against a team like Indiana. 10* |