Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-22-22 | Creighton +2 v. Arkansas | Top | 90-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Creighton and Arkansas are two teams coming off impressive wins Monday in Maui. The Bluejays beat Texas Tech 76-65 while the Razorbacks smoked hapless Louisville 80-54. These two teams are now a combined 9-0 straight up to start the year with Creighton at 5-0 and Arkansas 4-0. Only one can remain unbeaten after Tuesday, obviously. While Arkansas’ margin of victory was greater on Monday, I’d argue Creighton’s win was more impressive, given who they beat. This could also be the spot where not having five-star recruit Nick Smith Jr (listed as “day to day”) finally catches up with the Razorbacks. The biggest area of concern for Creighton is defending the three-point line. But fortunately for them, Arkansas does not make, or even take, a ton of threes. The Hogs are shooting just 30% from deep through four games and average only five makes per game. Where Arkansas thrives is forcing turnovers. But Creighton is well-suited to counteract that as they don’t turn it over much, ranking 13th in the country in TO rate. With four double digit scorers, Creighton is shooting the ball exceptionally well thus far. Look for them to prevail in this battle of Top 10 teams. 10* |
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11-22-22 | Nets -7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 106-115 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
This is all about which team is at full strength and which team isn’t. Brooklyn has Kyrie Irving back and looks ready to make a move in the Eastern Conference. Philadelphia won’t have Joel Embiid, James Harden or Tyrese Maxey tonight. That’s their three best players!
As a result, I’m laying the points with the Nets tonight. In Irving’s return Sunday, they shot 60% from the field. Ben Simmons even had 22 points (a season-high).
Irving had 14. Durant had 26, so he’s scored at least 25 in all 17 games this season. There’s just too many options here for Philly to slow down.
The Sixers have played 97 possessions this season without Embiid, Harden and Maxey on the floor. They’ve been dominated during that time, getting outscored by almost 16 points. Both the offensive and defensive numbers take a major hit. This game could get ugly in a hurry. It should be an easy double digit win for the visitors. 10* |
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11-22-22 | San Francisco -1 v. Wichita State | Top | 67-63 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
The Finals of the Hall of Fame Classic (played in Kansas City) go down Tuesday afternoon with 5-0 San Francisco taking on 3-1 Wichita State. Both teams won their semifinal games in impressive fashion yesterday. USF knocked off Northern Iowa 75-69 while Wichita State beat Grand Canyon 55-43.
We’ve already seen a change in favorite with the line moving in San Francisco’s direction. Considering the Dons failed to cover against Northern Iowa (were -7), that’s pretty interesting, but I also happen to agree with the line move.
The Dons like to play fast, much faster than Wichita State would like, and they take a lot of threes. They were 14 of 36 from behind the arc yesterday. The fact they were behind by 11 entering halftime may not sound all that encouraging, but the way they stormed back in the second half was. Also, while the Dons do love to shoot the three, you’ve got to expect they’ll make more than 11 two-point field goals in this game (that’s how many they made vs. N Iowa).
Wichita State is rightly earning praise following wins over Richmond and Grand Canyon, but let’s not forget this team also lost - as a 16-point favorite - at home to Alcorn State. I just don’t see the Shockers (57, 56, 55 points L3 games) scoring enough to stick with San Francisco this afternoon. Teams are shooting just 22% from three against Wichita State this season. There’s simply no way that can continue. San Francisco is the ideal team to send the Shockers’ 3-point defense into negative regression. Look out for Khalil Shabazz, who had 24 points yesterday for the Dons. 10* |
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11-21-22 | Ohio State v. San Diego State -4.5 | Top | 77-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
We head to Maui for our third and final College Hoops selection for the night. San Diego State is a favorite here over Ohio State and I expect the Aztecs to cover the number here. San Diego State is a team that I’ve played before. The last time the Aztecs took the court, I laid a similar number (on the road) to Stanford and they easily came out ahead, 74-62. The Aztecs are outstanding defensively as they were a year ago. Last year they ended up #2 in the country at KenPom in defensive efficiency. So far this season, they are eighth. In terms of experience, SDSU has the edge here with four of last year’s five starters returning. They also added a key piece via the transfer portal with Darrion Trammell, who had averaged 19.5 points the first two games before going 0 for 5 from the field against Stanford. I’d expect a bounce back from Trammell tonight. Ohio State had to hit the transfer portal hard after losing the likes of E.J. Liddell and Malakai Branham. Holden, Likekele and McNeil have all proven that they can be key contributors, but the relatively young Buckeyes have yet to face an opponent that’s this challenging defensively. Lay the points. 10* |
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11-21-22 | Georgia Tech v. Utah -4.5 | Top | 64-68 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
Utah takes on Georgia Tech here as part of the Fort Myers Tipoff. These teams are in the event’s “Beach Division.” Every team from the “Beach Division” was successful in games vs. teams from the “Palms Division” with one exception, that being Utah, who lost 65-55 to Sam Houston State as a 10-point favorite. As a result of that embarrassing defeat, expect the Utes to come out motivated tonight. First off, SHSU had previously beaten Oklahoma before beating the Utes. The other big takeaway from that game is how SHSU, a team that was making only 50% of its free throws, went 12 of 14 from the line against Utah. Utah is usually pretty sound defensively. They’re allowing a FG% of just 34.0 and 53.7 points/game. I don’t think it will be very difficult to guard a Georgia Tech team that is only averaging five made three-pointers per game thus far. The Yellow Jackets are 3-0 following an 18-point win over Northern Illinois last week. But this is easily their toughest test yet and being so limited offensively, I expect the underdog to struggle. One of the tallest teams in the entire country, look for Utah to dominate the boards in this matchup. We’re getting a cheap price on the Utes because of the previous result. Take advantage. 10* |
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11-20-22 | Virginia v. Illinois -1 | Top | 70-61 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
This is the Final of the Continental Tire Main Event in Las Vegas. #16 Virginia upset #5 Baylor to get here while #19 Illinois rallied back to beat #8 UCLA. Whoever wins this thing is going to have a nice mark on their resume.
I like Illinois to win. Here’s the thing. Virginia just can’t possibly hope to shoot the ball as well here as they did vs. Baylor.
The Cavaliers made 55.6% of their overall field goal attempts on Friday and were 9 of 14 from downtown. They also attempted 35 free throws and made 27.
Illinois, I believe, has the edge here both on the inside and from behind the arc. Terrance Shannon Jr, a transfer from Texas Tech, is the player to watch. He scored 29 points against UCLA and was 8 of 9 from three. Virginia has been uncharacteristically bad at defending the three-point line so far. They rank outside the top 300 in 3pt% allowed. Illinois scored 51 pts in the second half vs. UCLA after going for 103 against Monmouth and 86.5 PPG in the two contests before that. 10* |
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11-19-22 | Wolves +1.5 v. 76ers | Top | 112-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
We all understand that this is the end of a four-game road trip for Minnesota, who can now say they have won back to back games for the first time in November.
Normally, the end of a trip like this can be a bad spot. But that’s not really the case tonight for the Timberwolves, who have had the last two days off. They also had two days off prior to beating Orlando 126-108 Weds night.
The opposition played last night, and for Philadelphia it was a hard-fought win here at home vs. Milwaukee. But the Sixers didn’t come out unscathed. Already missing James Harden from the lineup, they saw Tyrese Maxey go down with a foot injury on Friday.
So even though this will be their fourth straight game at home and Minnesota’s fourth straight road game, the situation is MUCH worse here for Philly. The T’wolves have posted a 127.5 offensive efficiency rating in the last two games, shooting 54% overall and 40% from three. They are in much better shape than the Sixers heading into Saturday. 10* |
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11-18-22 | Indiana -2.5 v. Xavier | Top | 81-79 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
Lots of neutral site tournament action in Friday College Hoops, but here we’ve got Indiana traveling to Xavier for a true road game as part of the Gavitt Games. I think the Hoosiers are - by far - the better team here and will cover the spread without much trouble.
Morehead State and Bethune-Cookman are hardly what I’d call “high-caliber” opposition, but those first two IU opponents didn’t stand a chance, losing 35 and 52 respectively. The Hoosiers have shot almost 60% from the field so far and Mike Woodson has a deep team here.
Many believe Woodson’s team is going to win the Big 10 this year and I’m not going to disagree with that assessment, especially with what we’re also seeing at the defensive end (allowing just .664 points/possession).
Sean Miller is back at Xavier for a second stint. But I’m not really high on this Musketeers team despite starting the year with three double digit wins (over Morgan State, Montana and Fairfield). There’s no way they will continue to shoot 45.5% from three. First-team All Big East selection Colby Jones sat out against Fairfield due to an ankle injury suffered in practice. They didn’t need him in the last game, but Jones would be a significant loss going against a team like Indiana. 10* |
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11-18-22 | Buffalo v. Drake -12.5 | Top | 72-80 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 5 m | Show |
I’m expecting this first game in the U.S. Virgin Islands Paradise Jam to be a blowout. All signs point the favorite (Drake) winning very big.
About the only positive thing I can say about Buffalo right now is they are playing fast. The Bulls are listed at #1 in adjusted tempo over at KenPom. However, being that they are so inexperienced, the fast pace has led to a lot of turnovers and poor defense. Through three games, UB is 313th in turnovers while allowing 58% shooting from inside the arc (311th) and they are sending opponents to the free throw line at a very high rate as well.
The result is a 1-2 start with nearly 90 points/game allowed. After beating Colgate by a single point, the Bulls have lost by 35 to James Madison (at home) and by 20 to UConn.
Drake is a team that can take advantage of Buffalo’s deficiencies. The Bulldogs should have beaten Wofford by more than they did on Monday. They won by only eight because Wofford made six more threes. It was a pretty woeful 5 of 24 for Drake from behind the arc. But they shot 68% on two-point attempts. Remember what I said earlier about Buffalo’s poor interior defense. Drake doesn’t turn the ball over much either. They’ve scored 80 points against two teams that like to play slow. Here, against a sloppy, inexperienced team, the Bulldogs should put a ton of points on the board and cover the number rather easily. 10* |
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11-16-22 | Warriors +2 v. Suns | Top | 119-130 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Golden State is just 6-8 to start the year, but they showed signs of life on Monday when they blew out San Antonio at home by a score of 132-95. I like them here on the road against a banged up Suns team. Count on the Warriors taking this one seriously. It’s a chance to beat their main division rival and the team that has had the best record in the Western Conference over the last two years. This is also a huge revenge spot as the Warriors were blown out by 29 points when they faced the Suns earlier this year. Phoenix has dropped two in a row coming into tonight, first to Orlando (114-97) and then to Miami (113-112). Overall, they are 2-4 L6 games. Two starters have been out - Chris Paul and Cam Johnson. Only Paul (questionable) has a chance of seeing the floor tonight. The defense has really fallen off a cliff with those two out and while Paul’s replacement Cam Payne did look good in a couple of the games, he went 4 of 17 against the Heat. Golden State’s starting five has looked excellent of late and Steph Curry should be ready to go after playing a season-low 27 minutes against the Spurs. All signs point to this being a “statement game” for the Warriors. 10* |
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11-16-22 | Bulls +3.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 110-124 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is a revenge game for Chicago. They lost 115-111 at home to New Orleans exactly one week ago. That result was followed by another loss for the Bulls as they went down 126-103 at the hands of Denver on Sunday. The team has now dropped four of its last five. But this time the Bulls catch the Pelicans in the second game of a back to back. New Orleans was kind to me last night with a 113-102 win over Memphis. I laid the short price as the Grizzlies were without one of their two best players (Desmond Bane). That was obviously a wise decision. The Pelicans didn’t even need Zion Williamson to win last night. He sat, but six teammates finished in double figures led by 30 points from CJ McCollum (who I predicted would have a big game). As a team, NO went 18 of 38 from three-point range. I don’t see the Pelicans shooting as well tonight, even if Williamson returns, as they went just 3 of 19 on three-pointers the last game vs. Chicago. That previous meeting was closely contested with 14 lead changes and nine ties. Now, Chicago is better rested (just two games in last seven days) while New Orleans played last night. A big problem for the Pelicans has been interior defense, so that’s an area the Bulls need to attack here. 10* Chicago |
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11-15-22 | San Diego State -4.5 v. Stanford | Top | 74-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
A “mid-major” laying points on the road against a Power 5 Conference team speaks volumes and in the case of San Diego State-Stanford, the number is more than justified. SDSU is no “ordinary” mid-major. They’ve made back to back NCAA Tournament appearances and are the preseason favorite to win the Mountain West. Meanwhile, Stanford has yet to appear in the Big Dance since Jerod Haase came to Palo Alto in 2016. San Diego State is excellent defensively. They ranked 2nd in efficiency in the KenPom rankings a year ago and have allowed the ninth fewest points per 100 possessions to start this season. The Aztecs held Cal State Fullerton to 57 points and BYU to 75. Stanford figures to have all sorts of trouble scoring tonight. The Cardinal are shooting just 23.7% from three thus far and were just held to 50 points by Wisconsin on Friday. They are 0-2 ATS on the year, having also failed to cover the season opener vs. Pacific. A real encouraging sign for San Diego State to start the season is that they’ve scored 80 points in both games. That’s something they did only once all of last season. Stanford let Pacific score 78. Back to the San Diego State defense - they have been outstanding at forcing turnovers. CS Fullerton and BYU coughed it up a combined 38 times. Not only has Stanford turned it over a total of 34 times so far, but they had one of the worst turnover rates in the country last year. This is a terrible matchup for the home side. Lay the points. 10* San Diego State |
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11-15-22 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -3.5 | Top | 102-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
Memphis is 9-5 with five wins in their last seven games. But they did lose on Sunday, 102-92 at Washington, without Ja Morant and Desmond Bane. That loss was also the Grizzlies’ lowest scoring game of this season. They are now 0-3 this year when either Morant or Bane does not suit up.
Morant is off the injured list and Jaren Jackson Jr seems set to make his season debut tonight. But Bane being out 2-3 weeks is a significant loss considering he’s the team’s top three-point shooter.
The Grizzlies have a pretty mediocre net efficiency rating. I think it’s fair to say that - so far - their schedule has not been all that daunting.
New Orleans is 7-6 and coming off a 119-106 win over Houston on Saturday. They’ll be home now through Thanksgiving, so they need to take advantage. So far the Pelicans are just 3-2 in home games. I understand Memphis’ optimism with JJJ and Morant returning. But New Orleans has the better point differential and net efficiency rating this season. Even if Zion Williamson doesn’t play, the Pelicans have enough depth to pull this one out. In particular, look for CJ McCollum, long overdue to get hot, to have a big game. The Grizzlies let Washington hit 19 threes on Sunday. Lay the short number here. 10* |
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11-14-22 | Wofford v. Drake -10 | Top | 72-80 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a tough spot for Wofford. After losing 91-80 at High Point, a game they were favored to win, this is the second road game in three days for the Terriers. I don’t like their chances.
Meanwhile, Drake has played only once - last Wednesday - and they easily defeated IUPUI by a score of 80-48.
For Wofford, the best player from last season is back. B.J. Mack led the team in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks in 2021-22. Mack has averaged 18 points in the first two games this year. The problem is that he doesn’t have much returning help. After Mack, last year’s top seven scorers all departed. They’ve been replaced by JUCOs and six freshmen.
Against High Point, the Terriers never really stood a chance. They were down 17 at halftime and just couldn’t get enough stops in the second half. Unlike tonight’s opponent, Drake is an experienced team. Five players started at least 13 games on last year’s 25-win squad, making them the logical favorite to win the Missouri Valley Conference in 2022-23. The Bulldogs are a very deserved double digit favorite in this game and should have no problem covering the spread. 10* |
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11-11-22 | Kansas State -6 v. California | Top | 63-54 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Kansas State figures to struggle when the Big 12 portion of the schedule begins, so it is imperative that the Wildcats perform well against non-conference opponents. Tonight’s game vs. Cal typifies the concept of “must win” and I believe they will - by a comfortable margin.
There are nine newcomers on the roster this year in Manhattan. Yet the season opener vs. UTRGV could not have gone any better. Now KSU was expected to win big as 22-point favorites. But they ended up delivering a 34-point victory, which was a very encouraging sign.
On the other hand, Cal’s season did not get off to a rousing start. As a six-point favorite here in Berkeley, they lost outright to UC Davis as a six-point favorite. Over the game’s final 9:30, the Bears made only one field goal.
Cal is not exactly expected to light it up this year as they were picked to finish second to last in the Pac 12. Six players finished in double figures for K-State in the opener. Cal shot just 38.1% as a team in its first game. I know it’s a small sample size, but the road team is a justifiable favorite in this one and should roll. 10* |
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11-10-22 | Central Michigan v. Marquette -17.5 | Top | 73-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
While Marquette won its first game against Radford by only 10 points, I’m expecting a blowout tonight. The Golden Eagles were up 21 on Radford before a five-minute scoring drought helped close the gap and make the final score closer than it should have been.
This is the first game of the season for Central Michigan. The Chippewas are off their worst season in many years as they finished 7-23 overall. They were competitive in the MAC, losing by an average of only six points per game, but struggled against non-conference foes, going 1-10 losing by 18 points/game.
Need I remind you that Marquette is NOT a MAC team?
The Golden Eagles were solid defensively in the opener, limiting Radford to 20% shooting from three. The problem was they shot just 26% from three themselves and also turned it over 18 times. But I expect a more solid game from start to finish from Shaka Smart’s team tonight. They had four double digit scorers vs. Radford. CMU lost a lot from last season’s roster and figures to really struggle in the early going. Four of the top five scorers and rebounders from last year departed. A team that turned it over on nearly 20% of its possessions in 2021-22 figures to not fare well against a Smart-coached team. 10* |
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11-08-22 | Montana +4 v. Duquesne | Top | 63-91 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
This number has already been bet down, but there’s still value with underdog Montana. The Grizzlies experienced a terrible finish to last season, losing 8 of their last 11 games. Before that, they were 15-6 overall and 8-2 vs. the rest of the Big Sky Conference. I believe this team is going to be on a mission to start the season and it helps that last year’s leading scorer Josh Bannan (15.1 points/game) is back. There were a couple of key transfers brought into Missoula as well. The most notable being Dischon Thomas from Colorado State. After going 6-24 with 17 straight losses last season, Duquesne head coach Keith Dambrot decided to clean house and he’s basically got a whole new roster coming into the year. Four of the top six scorers from last year are gone as are 7 of the 10 players that averaged at least nine minutes per game. One of the key new pieces, Tevin Brewer, is out due to an appendectomy. Montana was very effective from the free throw line last season, ranking 11th nationally in FT percentage. They also were top 35 in fewest turnover rate. Duquesne was bottom 20 in the country in home field goal shooting percentage and bottom 10 in three-point shooting percentage allowed. Take the points here. 10* |
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11-07-22 | Raptors v. Bulls -3.5 | Top | 97-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
These teams just met Sunday and the Raptors came out on top 113-104. That was in Toronto though and Fred VanVleet was a monster, going for 30 points and 11 assists. Zach LaVine sat out yesterday for Chicago as his usage is being managed due to offseason knee surgery. The expectation is that he’ll play tonight. Also, you’ve got to expect more from DeMar DeRozan than what he gave the Bulls Sunday. Yes, DeRozan shot 7 for 9, but that was a season-low in field goal attempts. Tonight the Bulls get to play host and they’ve won three of four here in the Windy City. All three victories have been by a minimum of 15 points. Toronto is without leading scorer Pascal Siakam and there’s no way VanVleet is going to be as productive as he was on Sunday. Another key takeaway from last night’s game is that Chicago turned it over 17 times, leading to 23 Toronto points. No way they are that careless again. I expect a Bulls’ bounce back at home where they are 4-0 straight up and against the spread the last four times hosting the Raptors. 8* |
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11-07-22 | Memphis -2.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 76-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is one of the “juicier” matchups on Opening Night of the College Basketball season as two teams coached by former NBA All-Stars collide.
Memphis went 22-11 last season, including 13-5 in the American Conference, and made the NCAA Tournament. In the Big Dance, Anfernee Hardaway’s team gave Gonzaga a real scare in the second round as they had a 10-point lead at halftime. Eventually though, the Tigers would lose by four points.
Vanderbilt went just 19-17 last season and they were 7-11 in the SEC for Jerry Stackhouse. Notably, the Commodores were just 1-7 when up against a ranked team. Memphis may not be ranked heading into 2022-23, but they are certainly the better team in this matchup.
Kendric Davis is a key transfer for Memphis, coming over from conference rival SMU. Davis joins holdovers Alex Lomax and DeAndre Williams for what should be a formidable scoring trio. The Tigers have nine seniors on the roster, so it’s a veteran team and I look for them to attack Vandy inside in this matchup. Vanderbilt lost their best player from last year, Scottie Pippen Jr, to the NBA. I think they’re going to struggle to score here against what should be one of the best defensive teams in the entire country. Furthermore, not only should Memphis have success attacking Vandy down low, but they should have a big night from three. Defending the arc was a major problem for the Commodores last season. 10* |
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11-02-22 | Grizzlies v. Blazers +4.5 | Top | 111-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Once again, let’s take advantage of injury news and grab some value with an NBA underdog. Last night, it was Chicago getting it done for us with an outright win in Brooklyn. Tonight, Portland is going to be without Damian Lillard, but they are at home and I like them getting points vs. Memphis.
The Blazers did not have Lillard in the lineup last Friday, but still defeated the Houston Rockets by a score of 125-111. They’re well rested coming into Wednesday (four days off!) and are 5-1 SU on the season.
Memphis is just 4-3 with the wins coming over New York, Houston, Brooklyn and Sacramento. The Grizzlies have been beaten twice by Utah and got blown out (by 41 points) in Dallas.
Ja Morant is having a strong start for the Grizz, but the problem for the team has been defense. Memphis has given up 120 or more points in five of the seven games so far, resulting in the worst defensive rating in the league. They miss Jaren Jackson Jr. Desmond Bane is listed as questionable for tonight, though I expect him to play. Yes, Memphis will be motivated by the back to back losses to Utah. Bettors will be tempted to lay a small number with a favorite hoping to avoid a three-game losing streak. But Portland has the best record in the Western Conference and, when rested, can get the job done as a home dog. They beat the Grizzlies in three of the four regular season meetings last year. Take the points. |
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11-01-22 | Bulls +1.5 v. Nets | Top | 108-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
The Nets have been a disaster at the betting window thus far, failing to cover in five straight and coming into Tuesday with a 1-6 ATS record on the season. This will be the second night of a back to back for them. Last night saw them defeat the Pacers 116-109 but just miss out on covering as 7.5-point favorites.
Meanwhile, after dropping both games of a back to back, the Bulls have had two days to prepare for this game. They are potentially going to be short-handed though with LaVine, Dosunmu and White all listed as questionable. That’s in addition to both Drummond and Ball still being out.
But DeMar DeRozan will still be in the Bulls’ lineup and I think there’s still enough of a supporting cast around him (Vucevic, Caruso, Dragic) to get the job done. Certainly, Chicago should see improvement at the offensive end as the Nets can’t stop anybody right now. Brooklyn is third worst in the league in points allowed coming into Tuesday, giving up 120.3 per game. Last night’s win aside, the Nets just haven’t been very good so far this season. Them laying a short number at home in the second night of a back to back just feels like the oddsmakers are setting a trap. The Nets lack depth. This team is a horrible 13-37-1 ATS its last 51 home games. 8* |
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10-30-22 | Nuggets -3.5 v. Lakers | Top | 110-121 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
The Lakers stink. But because they are the Lakers and NBA’s lone remaining winless team, there are going to be bettors who want to keep playing them. I am here to tell you NOT to make that mistake!
Not only are the Lakers 0-5 straight up, but they are also 0-5 against the spread. They have been an underdog in four of those games and tonight will be their fifth time catching points. No team is worse when it comes to shooting from behind the three-point line. In fact, the Lakers’ current 28.3 3PT FG% would be sixth worst in league history over a single season.
Anthony Davis did not play on Friday when LA lost to Minnesota 111-102. He is hopeful to return this evening. Won’t matter though, Denver is simply the superior basketball team here.
The Nuggets have won four of five since a season-opening loss at Utah. The last time they lost, they led at half before falling apart down the stretch. By the way, Denver has already beaten the Lakers once this year, 110-99, and did so without the services of Michael Porter Jr (who is likely to play tonight). The Lakers are the worst offensive team in the league and just don’t have the firepower to stick with a team like Denver, who has averaged over 117 points in its last five games. Lay the points. 10* |
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10-28-22 | Pelicans v. Suns -7 | Top | 111-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
New Orleans was kind to me in their last game as they pulled off the upset, beating Dallas 113-111 as five-point home underdogs. They did so without three starters - Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Herbert Jones.
Ingram is already listed as being OUT for Friday while the other two (Williamson, Jones) are questionable to play. A fourth starter, CJ McCollum, is also listed as questionable.
Going on the road to face Phoenix, who had the league’s best record last season (including a league-high 32 wins at home), I don’t expect the banged up Pelicans to have the kind of success they had at home Tuesday night.
The Suns, like the Pelicans, are 3-1 with the one loss being a one-possession game. But they just throttled both the Clippers and Warriors, beating those two by a combined 46 points! The Suns are in peak form right now and healthy, so look for them to take care of the wounded Pelicans. These teams met in the first round of the playoffs last season. Phoenix won the series in six games. With the starting five for New Orleans so banged up, this line definitely looks to be a little “short.” 10* |
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10-27-22 | Mavs -2.5 v. Nets | Top | 129-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Brooklyn is now 1-3 straight up and against the spread after losing 110-99 last night in Milwaukee. That result worked for me as I had the Under (233), making it a 24-point winner on this end. The Nets were not so fortunate as their second-half defensive woes continued. This team was outscored 67-44 in the 2H by the Bucks, blowing a 12-point lead in the process. That came on the heels of another terrible 2H performance in Memphis Monday night where the Nets gave up 70 points after the break and lost by 10. Notable is that the Grizzlies’ Desmond Bane and the Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo both scored the majority of their points in the 2H. Of the 81 points those two players scored against the Nets, 66 came after the break. So don’t be surprised if the Mavs’ Luka Doncic is able to pour it on late tonight. Not even 37 points from both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving was enough for the Nets last night. Durant struggled against double teams the last time he faced Dallas, getting held to 23 points on 8 of 20 shooting. Irving did not play in that game (due to the vaccine mandate at the time) but his presence here may not be enough to turn the tide, considering 74 points from the Nets’ top two players was not enough against Milwaukee. Dallas is 1-2 on the year, but should probably be 3-0 as they blew fourth quarter leads in both losses. They had a 22-point lead against Phoenix in the opening game while the Pelicans (another winner for me) hot shooting (57.9%) was too much to overcome Tuesday. Playing in the second night of a back to back, Brooklyn won’t shoot as well as New Orleans did against the Mavericks. This is the first back to back for the Nets this season. They are 11-17 ATS in this situation the previous two seasons and have already given up 130 or more points twice to start 2022-23. The Mavs are 5-2 SU the last 7 meetings with the Nets and are the better team right now. 10* |
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10-25-22 | Mavs v. Pelicans +4.5 | Top | 111-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
I’m going to go ahead and assume Zion Williamson (bruised him) plays tonight. Now the Pelicans are banged up beyond Williamson as Brandon Ingram is in concussion protocol while Herbert Jones hyperextended his knee. But CJ McCollum is more than ready to go and you can look for New Orleans to cover the spread at home tonight.
With McCollum leading the way, New Orleans erased all of a 17-point fourth quarter deficit against the Jazz Saturday night. Eventually, the Pelicans went down in overtime, their first loss of the season. I had them plus the points against Brooklyn in the season opener and then they also beat Charlotte 124-112 for a 2-0 start.
Dallas probably feels it should be 2-0 as they let a 22-point lead slip away in their season opener against Phoenix. The Mavericks then got off to another great start against Memphis on Saturday, but this time didn’t allow their opponents back in it. The Mavs won 137-96. With or without Williamson, I look for the Pelicans to control the paint in this matchup. They did not trail at any point in the first two games of the season. 10* |
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10-24-22 | Nuggets -5 v. Blazers | Top | 110-135 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Portland was pretty atrocious down the stretch last season, losing its last 11 games. But with a healthy Damian Lillard back in the lineup they have started the 2022-23 season with three consecutive wins and covers. I don’t like their chances tonight though, in the second night of a back to back, hosting Denver. The Nuggets had a disappointing loss at Utah to open the season, but have since rallied to beat Golden State and Oklahoma City to make it a 2-1 SU start. Laying nine points, they failed to cover against the Thunder, winning just 122-117. That was the second night of a back to back though and the team still shot 52.6% from three-point range. The final score against the Warriors was a bit misleading as well. Denver led that game virtually the whole way and was up 18 at halftime. They maintained a double digit lead through the third quarter before Golden State made a late run. Two-time MVP Nikola Jokic has turned in back to back triple doubles for the Nuggets, who are also now getting key contributions from Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr, both of whom missed the entirety of last season due to injuries. This is simply a great spot to fade Portland as they are off an emotional win over the Lakers last night where they trailed by seven with under two minutes left. Lay the points. 10* |
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10-21-22 | Celtics -2.5 v. Heat | Top | 111-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
The Celtics put all the distractions surrounding Ime Udoka behind them and won on Opening Night, defeating the 76ers 126-117 as a five-point favorite. They shot 56.1% from the field and got 35 point games from both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. It was a very nice start to the season for the reigning Eastern Conference Champs. Can’t say the same for Miami, however, as the Heat were beaten 116-108 by a Chicago team that was a 7.5-point underdog. The thing is, Miami didn’t even play that poorly, aside from committing 19 turnovers. They just had no answer for DeMar DeRozan. Now they are set to face a much tougher opponent. Even at home, this short number is not enough for me to be interested in the Heat. Will Boston shoot as well as it did in the opener? Maybe not, but I still expect them to win this game. So I’m laying the points. These teams played a seven-game series in the Eastern Conference Finals back in May. The Celtics have covered the number in five of their last six visits to Miami. Malcolm Brogdon showed he can be a nice third scoring option for Boston as he went for 16 in the opener. The Celtics also did a good job defensively in the second half, limiting the 76ers to only 54 points. Miami will only go as far as Jimmy Butler carries them. Kyle Lowry was a no-show in the first game, shooting 1 of 7 including 0 of 5 from three. 10* |
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10-20-22 | Bucks v. 76ers -4 | Top | 90-88 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
The 76ers lost by nine up in Boston Tuesday, 126-117. They got solid contributions from James Harden and Joel Embiid, who combined for 61 points and 23 rebounds. Harden also had seven assists and went 12 for 12 from the FT line. But the rest of the team was “persona non grata” as the bench produced only 11 points.
At home, we should expect a far greater contribution from the Sixers’ supporting cast. Looking back, it was basically one bad quarter (the third) that did the team in against Boston. They outscored the Celtics (by one point) over the other three quarters.
This will be Milwaukee’s first game after going 0-5 in the preseason. Kris Middleton, their second best player, is out. That puts added pressure on Giannis Antetokounmpo. It wouldn’t be unlike the former MVP to step up, but he can’t do it all by himself and this is one of the top teams from the East that the Bucks are facing tonight.
Tuesday night saw Philadelphia get outscored on fastbreak points 24-2. That will not happen again. I also expect a better defensive effort after allowing the Celtics to shoot 56% from the floor. 10* The Sixers have been very good at home the last two seasons, winning 61 of 90 games. Most of that is without Harden. Right now, they are a deeper (and better) team than the Bucks. Lay the points. 10* |
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10-19-22 | Pelicans +3.5 v. Nets | Top | 130-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
New Orleans got off to a horrible start last year, but quickly turned things around and even earned the 8-seed by virtue of winning two games in the Play-In Tournament. They did so despite not getting a single game out of Zion Williamson, who is now back healthy and ready to start the 2022-23 campaign. Brooklyn’s playoff stay was actually shorter than that of the Pelicans. The Nets were swept in the first round by Boston, ending a very disappointing run which saw Kyrie Irving miss a number of games. Kevin Durant wanted out in the offseason, but he and Irving are both set to return. So is Ben Simmons after an embarrassing end to the playoffs where he DNP in Game 4. I think things are going to get worse before they get better for Brooklyn. Durant wanted the coach and GM fired, but neither were and now everyone has to co-exist. We also don’t know how well Durant and Irving will play together. The Pelicans have a solid starting five with Williamson back as CJ McCollum was a huge acquisition for this team last year. New Orleans can definitely score. They averaged 116.7 points over their final 26 regular season games, making them all the more enticing as an underdog in this spot. Grab the points. 8* |
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10-18-22 | Lakers +7 v. Warriors | Top | 109-123 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
The Lakers are obviously a much different team with LeBron James and Anthony Davis in the lineup. Both will be ready to go Tuesday night in the series opener vs. Golden State. Thus I’m taking the points.
In the 108 regular season games that James and Davis have played together, the Lakers have gone 75-33 straight up, a win percentage of .690. Only the Suns had a win percentage higher than .690 last season.
While James and Davis should be happy to see one another tonight, I don’t know how the Warriors can possibly navigate the situation with Draymond Green and Jordan Poole. Additionally, coach Steve Kerr has openly questioned his own team’s conditioning. Yesterday he was quoted as saying the starters are not ready to play 30+ minutes. That’s troublesome.
We know that the Lakers won’t have Dennis Schroeder and Russell Westbrook may not play either. Still, plus the points, I believe they are the play. A motivated James and Davis should be enough to cover this spread. The Lakers massively underachieved last season and will be ready to play. Golden State is likely to be more concerned with the pregame ring ceremony and thus expect a flat start from them. 10* |
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06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 25 m | Show |
We’re rolling with Boston here to keep the season alive and force a deciding Game 7 in the NBA Finals. This will be the first time the Celtics are coming off back to back losses since the end of March, which was the regular season. They had been 7-0 SU and ATS in the playoffs off a loss, before losing Game 5 at Golden State, 104-94 as four-point underdogs. Tonight, I think we’ll see the Celtics shoot a lot better than they did in Game 5. They were just 41.3% from the field on Monday, 34.4% from three. Being back at home obviously helps in that regard. However, his game being in Boston may help the Celtics out more defensively. They allow only 103.1 points/game at home. Golden State’s scoring defense goes to 108.9 on the road, up from 103.0 at home. Surprisingly, the Warriors are only 26-24 SU on the road. They will probably shoot better from three-point land tonight compared to Game 5 (when they were just 9 of 40 as a team and Steph Curry was 0 for 9). But that alone does not guarantee success. The Celtics have not lost three straight games since late December. They are at home, with their season on the line, tonight. When off a double digit loss, they are 10-3 ATS this season. Also, they are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in the playoffs when trailing in the series. Lay the points in Game 6! |
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06-13-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 94-104 | Win | 100 | 36 h 36 m | Show |
Neither of our two NBA Finalists have suffered consecutive defeats since the playoffs began. If that pattern holds, that means Boston will win this series in seven games. But that would also mean the Celtics win twice on the road. I don’t see that happening. Look for Golden State to take a 3-2 series lead Monday night as they are back home. The Warriors have lost at home only 11 times all year. Game 1 of this series was one of those 11, but it was also the only home game they’ve lost during the playoffs. They are +10.5 points per game for the year at home and as I’ve mentioned before, defense improves for the Warriors here as they allow just 103.2 points per game compared to 108.9 on the road. The Warriors have played 11 home games in the playoffs. Not only have they won 10 of them, but eight of those wins have come by double digits. They’ve covered five of the last six. Steph Curry continues to be other-worldly. He’s averaging 34.3 points per game in the NBA Finals and has made 25 threes in four games. He’s shooting almost 50 percent from behind the arc. Curry’s supporting cast should help out more in Game 5 as role players typically shoot better at home. This is a huge game where it’s very likely the winner goes on to take the series. I just see Curry and Golden State as being more likely to step up. Lay the points. |
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06-08-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 30 h 25 m | Show |
The best time to take the Celtics, at least in the playoffs, has been when they are coming off a loss. Since sweeping Brooklyn in the first round, they are a perfect 6-0 straight up and against the spread coming off a loss. Look for that trend to continue in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. After exploding in the fourth quarter of Game 1, the Celtics fell apart in the third quarter of Game 2. They ended up losing 107-88, their largest margin of defeat in the entire playoffs (previous worst loss was 12). The team shot 37.5% in Game 2. At home, they’ll easily improve that number. Three-point shooting has been good in both games. Interestingly, everyone except Jayson Tatum seemed to shoot well in the first game. In the second game, Tatum was the only one to really show up. I’m looking for a more balanced effort in Game 3. Golden State is an average team on the road, 25-23 with 109.1 points per game scored and 109.0 allowed. They allow six more points per game on the road than they allow at home, which is a big difference. Speaking of defense, look for Boston to do a better job on Steph Curry in this game. The Celtics are 9-2 SU and ATS off a double digit loss this year. I figured that the Warriors wouldn’t lose both games at home, which is why I was on them in Game 2. But they’ve lost three of four on the road and aren’t winning both games in Boston. Lay the points. |
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06-05-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -4 | Top | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 33 h 23 m | Show |
It’s difficult for me to believe that the Warriors will lose two straight home games. Before a Boston three-point barrage hit them in the fourth quarter of Game 1, the Warriors held a double digit lead. They are 4-0 this postseason off a loss, three of the four wins coming by at least 10 points. Since sweeping Brooklyn in the first round, the Celtics have not won three games in a row. They are 0-2 ATS off back to back wins in the previous two series, dropping those games by a combined 19 points. Boston isn’t going to make more than half of its three point attempts again. Al Horford was 6 of 8 from distance while Derrick White went 5 of 8. Those specific contributions are highly unlikely to be repeated in Game 2. Golden State is due for a strong effort at the defensive end. They’ve permitted an average of 113.7 points their last five games. For the year, they allow only 103.5 at home. Steph Curry ran wild in the first quarter, but other than that, there were no standout performances from the Warriors at the offensive end. Lots of room for improvement in Game 2, whether you’re talking Draymond Green (2 for 12 in Game 1) or Jordan Poole (2 for 7). Lay the points. |
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05-29-22 | Celtics -2.5 v. Heat | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 29 h 50 m | Show |
I can’t say that I expected there would be a Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals, but here we are. The Heat stayed alive with a 111-103 win on Friday night and get to host the deciding game. They are still underdogs, however. While that may sound tantalizing, look for Boston to advance to the NBA Finals. Defensively, the Celtics had totally shut down the Heat for two games before Jimmy Butler exploded for 47 points in Game 6. Besides Butler, the rest of the Heat's starting five has scored just 89 points in the last three games combined. I do not think they can count on another game like that from Butler. Boston is 15-4 straight up off a loss as a favorite this season and 14-5 against the spread. They are also 31-16 ATS on the road. Most important of all though is the fact the Celtics are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS off a loss in this postseason. All five wins have been by at least eight points and three of them have been by more than 20. They’ve already won a Game 7 in these playoffs, over Milwaukee, though that one was at home. The last time the Celtics lost back to back games was late March. Before that, it was mid-January. Everyone was writing off the Heat going into Game 6, a mistake in retrospect, however now it is time to buy low on Boston |
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05-26-22 | Mavs +7 v. Warriors | Top | 110-120 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
Dallas kept its season alive with a 119-109 win in Game 4. Despite never trailing after the first quarter and enjoying a 29-point advantage entering the fourth, things did get a bit too close for comfort near the end of the game. Thankfully, here we need not worry about the Mavericks having to win by any kind of margin. I’m taking the points. The “world” will likely be on Golden State to respond at home where they haven’t lost in this postseason. However, the Mavs did build a sizable halftime lead here in Game 2 (72-58) before imploding down the stretch. After getting off to a horrible start in Game 1, the Mavs have played the Warriors tough in this series. Their season is still on the line and while no team has ever fought back from a 3-0 series deficit, we know that we’ll be getting Dallas’ best effort from here on out. Golden State is surprisingly only 4-7 straight up following a double digit loss this year. Dallas had its biggest edge from long range in Game 4. While I think it’s unlikely they can be +30 again, they have made more threes than the Warriors in all four games. The pointspread has yet to come into play in any Conference Finals game so far. It may very well here. |
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05-25-22 | Celtics -1 v. Heat | Top | 93-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This Eastern Conference Finals between Boston and Miami has seen the two teams exchange blowout victories. The series is 2-2 heading back to Miami after the Celtics won easily in Game 4, 102-82 as seven-point favorites. The Celtics have yet to lose back to back games in these playoffs. Going back to their second round series vs. Milwaukee, there’s also been just one instance of them winning back to back games. But if you think this is leading to an endorsement of the Heat for Game 5, guess again. Boston was not favored in Games 1 and 2 here in Miami. They are slight favorites tonight. Game 1 they were missing Marcus Smart and Al Horford. Smart (questionable for tonight) was out again in Game 4, but that hardly mattered as Derrick White started in his place, scored the game’s first seven points and finished with 13-8-8. Only Tyler Herro sat for the Heat in the last game. He and Kyle Lowry are listed as questionable tonight. After the Heat scored just 82 points in Game 4, which included just 18 from the starting five, I understand why many would feel there’s a Miami bounce back forthcoming. But I just happen to think Boston is better. The Celtics’ two wins in the series have been by a combined 45 points. The Heat’s two wins have been by a combined 17 points. Boston has been up at the half in three of the games. Jimmy Butler is clearly not himself with just 14 points the last two games. Lay the points. |
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05-22-22 | Warriors v. Mavs -2.5 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
For the second series in a row, the Mavs return home for Game 3 down two games to none. We all recall what happened against Phoenix in the last round. Now I’m not saying the Mavs pull that off again, but I do like them here in Game 3. Certainly, Dallas feels that this Western Conference Final should be all squared away at one game apiece. They led Game 2 for most of the first three quarters and were up 14 at half. Luka Doncic had 42 points. But it was not to be as Golden State raced past them in the fourth. The Mavs have won five straight at home in these playoffs since losing Game 1 of the Utah series (without Doncic). Something I have mentioned before is that they are #1 in the league in fewest points allowed at home (101.0 per game). I can assure you that the Warriors will not be shooting 56% again as they did in each of the first two games. Though Coach Jason Kidd quipped that his team “died by the three” in Game 2, I expect the Mavs will continue to fire from behind the arc in this game. They’ve attempted 93 threes in the series. They made 21 in Game 2. Golden State shot a higher percentage, but will not repeat going 50% from deep as they did in Game 2. Golden State has failed to cover each of its last four road games. Dallas is 6-0 ATS after allowing 125 or more points in their last game. Lay the points |
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05-20-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
I like Dallas to rebound here from its embarrassing Game 1 defeat. The Mavericks scored only 18 points in the first quarter and when you do that against a team like the Warriors, it’s pretty much “all over but the shouting.” The Mavs ended up shooting just 36% for the game, including 23% from three. You’ve got to expect better shooting here tonight from the road underdog. Over the previous three seasons, Dallas is 29-9 ATS after a game in which it was held under 100 points. They are 19-4 ATS in that situation this season. Also, the team is 12-4 ATS in 2021-22 when coming off a double digit defeat. I can’t fathom Golden State shooting 56.1 percent again like they did in Game 1. Dallas has been an excellent defensive team all season long and held Phoenix under 100 points three times in that series. Dallas should shoot much better from long-range in Game 2 than they did in Game 1. Doncic, Brunson, Bertans and Bullock went a combined 6 of 29 from behind the arc. Even with Games 3 and 4 taking place at home, the Mavericks obviously want to avoid falling into the dreaded 0-2 hole. They fought their way out of it against Phoenix, but it would be much tougher to do that against Golden State. Take the points in Game 2. |
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05-18-22 | Mavs +5 v. Warriors | Top | 87-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
I think most are underestimating the Mavericks coming into the Western Conference Finals. This is a team that has already eliminated Utah and Phoenix, two very good teams, and just delivered an emphatic 123-90 win on Sunday in Game 7 vs. Phoenix. So no one should be underestimating them. Luka Doncic averaged 32.6 points per game against Phoenix. In four regular season matchups vs. the Warriors, he averaged 31.5. That was the fourth most points scored against Golden State in a single season since Steve Kerr became head coach. Gary Payton II would have been the primary defender on Doncic, but he’s out with an injury. So I think Golden State is going to give up more points than what you might think for Game 1. Dallas did have the one bad offensive game vs. the Suns where they scored only 80 points. But since then, they scored 113 and 123. The Mavericks are a perfect 9-0 straight up and 8-0-1 against the spread in the 2021-22 season following a game where they allowed 90 or fewer points. The Warriors are 0-5 ATS off their previous five SU wins and have only covered two of their last eight games overall. In case you hadn’t figured it out by now, I’m taking the points in Game 1. Doncic is playing at an elite level and the Mavericks have the higher net efficiency rating through two rounds of playoff action. |
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05-13-22 | Grizzlies +8.5 v. Warriors | Top | 96-110 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
Memphis sure fooled me in Game 5, beating Golden State by 39 points despite not having Ja Morant. The Grizzlies have won 21 of their 27 games without Morant in 2021-22 and have basically led throughout the last two games. So I’m pretty confident that the underdog keeps this one close. Two of Golden State’s three victories in this series have been by a combined four points. As I just said, last time they were here at home, they were behind most of the way only to get bailed out by a Steph Curry fourth quarter surge. (The Warriors ended up winning by three). Memphis has led for nearly 46 of the 48 minutes in the two games since Morant got hurt. All season long, the Grizzlies have demonstrated tremendous depth. Seven players were in double figures in the last three. Three scored exactly 21 points. Steve Kerr is still not coaching for the Warriors because of COVID-19. It seems to have had an effect. Also, the Warriors have scored 101 points or less in three of the last four games. The Grizzlies are 23-15 ATS as underdogs this season, winning 20 of those games outright. They are also 19-5 ATS vs. the Pacific Division, including 7-2 ATS vs. the Warriors. More importantly, they are 4-0 ATS this postseason when behind in the series. Memphis has covered four of the five games so far while Golden State is just 1-6 ATS its last seven overall. |
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05-12-22 | Heat v. 76ers -2 | Top | 99-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
Philadelphia must win here to stay alive. The good thing is they are at home where they’ve already beaten the Heat twice, by 20 and 8 points. It’s difficult to imagine the 76ers’ shooting not improving from the last time out. Game 5 marked the fourth time in these playoffs that the 76ers were held below 100. They averaged 117 points the next time out, the previous three instances. Similarly, look for Miami’s shooting to decline in Game 5. They were 7 of 30, then 7 of 35 from three-point land in the previous two games here in Philly. No one on the Sixers scored more than 17 points in Game 5. Think that might change here? With Joel Embiid, James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris, I’m expecting at least two Sixers players to top 20 tonight. Other than Jimmy Butler, only Bam Adebayo in Game 4 has turned in a 20+ point effort for the Heat over the last three games. Philadelphia is 17-5 straight up, 14-8 against the spread this season following a sub-100 point game. The previous time they got held below 90 (Game 5 vs Toronto), they responded by scoring 132 in the next game. Lay the points here. |
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05-11-22 | Warriors -4 v. Grizzlies | Top | 95-134 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
I like the Warriors to close out the Grizzlies Wednesday night and also to cover the spread. Memphis won’t have Ja Morant, which is a big loss even if the team is 20-6 (straight up) this season without its star point guard and also turned in an admirable effort in Game 4 Monday night. But you can’t expect Golden State to go 9 of 35 on three-point tries again like they did in the last game. The Warriors also had a bad night from three in Game 2 (7 of 38). The next game they bounced back to make 17 of 32 from beyond the arc and shot 63.1% overall. Memphis shot a similar three-point percentage in Game 4 (25.7%). The difference is that without Morant, their chances of improving aren’t as great. Let us not forget that even when Morant was healthy, the Grizzlies needed three huge comebacks in the first round to eliminate Minnesota. The expectation is that Steve Kerr will again not coach for the Warriors as he remains in health and safety protocol. But that doesn’t really concern me. Golden State is 12-0 SU all-time in the playoffs when associate Mike Brown fills in as the head coach. Golden State should smell “blood in the water” here and be looking for the kill. It is in their best interest to end this series tonight with the chance Phoenix could move to the Western Conference Finals with a win tomorrow. The Warriors winning here and that Phoenix-Dallas series going seven games would be the dream scenario. Lay the points tonight. |
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05-10-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Suns | Top | 80-110 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
When Dallas headed home to face Phoenix for Game 3, they had lost to the Suns 11 straight times and were facing an 0-2 series deficit. Now the series is all tied up after a couple of impressive wins at home. The Suns are the team that is reeling entering Game 5 tonight. We’re back in Phoenix, but I see the Mavericks playing a lot better Tuesday night than they did in either Games 1 or 2. Though they did end up losing by 20, the Mavs were ahead at halftime in Game 2. And though they were down the whole way in Game 1, they only ended up losing by seven with a chance to “steal the cover” late (they did not). Remember something I’ve previously written. The Suns posted the lowest net efficiency rating of any team that advanced out of the first round. That was against the 8th seeded Pelicans. Dallas was +33 from behind the three-point line in Game 4. We probably shouldn’t count on that transpiring again. But they’ve made more threes than Phoenix in the series and in every game but one (both teams made 13 in Game 3). I happen to think the teams are a lot closer than these odds would seem to suggest. Dallas is definitely the better defensive team in this Western Conference semifinal. Grab those points. |
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05-08-22 | Heat v. 76ers -1.5 | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
This series feels a lot different now that Joel Embiid is back for Philadelphia. The 76ers rolled to a 99-79 win in Game 3 as the home team has yet to lose in this best of seven affair. While we can’t count on Miami shooting as poorly here as they did in Game 3, I still like the Sixers to win and cover Game 4. Still at +285 to win the series, the Sixers seem a bit undervalued to me. Embiid had only 18 points in Game 3, well under his season average, and eight of those came from the FT line. It was a bit of a surprise return Friday night. I’m expecting more from Embiid tonight. James Harden also has yet to “go off” in this series, even with Embiid not playing either of the first two games. Harden has scored only 53 points in the series, on 15 of 39 shooting. He’s 4 of 19 from behind the arc. If we get anything approaching “typical” performances from Harden and Embiid here, then we should be in VERY good shape. Also, the Sixers’ other three starters (Harris, Maxey, Green) have all shown an ability to contribute in meaningful fashion. For Miami, Jimmy Butler scored 33 points in Game 3, but only one other teammate (Tyler Herro) joined him in double figures and it took a rather inefficient effort. Kyle Lowry didn’t score (attempted only four shots) in his first game back from a hamstring injury and Bam Adebayo was a non-factor, going just 2 of 9 from the floor. I really like the Sixers here. |
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05-07-22 | Celtics +2 v. Bucks | Top | 101-103 | Push | 0 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
After losing Game 1 on their home floor, 101-89, the Celtics bounced back to win Game 2 109-86 and are now back to being favored to win this best of seven series, which now moves to Milwaukee. Despite the change in home court advantage, I like Boston to still walk away with the ATS win in Game 3. The Celtics are 10-1 ATS vs. the Bucks the last three seasons. With Khris Middleton still out for Milwaukee, it feels like laying points would be a bad idea here. Sure, the Bucks will shoot better than they did in the last game, but will improved shooting be enough? Overall shooting was pretty even in Game 2, but it was from three where the Celtics had a huge edge. They were 20 of 43 while Milwaukee was 3 of 18. Boston was up 25 points at halftime. Boston had the best regular season point differential in the Eastern Conference and is considered the favorite to make the NBA Finals. So it makes sense to bet them here. I’m just not sure Milwaukee can maintain its current defensive rating in the playoffs. Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart is expected back for Game 3. His Celtics are now 33-8 SU their last 41 games. They’ve covered five in a row as underdogs and are the better team. |
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05-06-22 | Suns v. Mavs | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
Both home teams on Friday are down 0-2 in their respective series. You would have to go all the way back to 2019 to find the last time the Mavericks beat the Suns head to head. The losing streak is now 11 games. I think tonight is the night they snap it. This projection may seem a bit “brave,” but Dallas is 32-12 straight up at home this year. Looking at the home vs. road splits for both them and the Suns, one thing really stands out. The Mavs are only allowing 101.5 points per game at home, well down from the 108.0 points per game they give up on the road. So you should expect Phoenix to score a lot fewer points here than they did in either Games 1 (121) and 2 (129). The Suns made 64.5% of their shots in Game 2 and were 13 of 25 from three. That’s just not sustainable, especially when now going out on the road and facing what has been one of the better defensive teams in the league. Dallas is 5-0 ATS the previous five times they’ve been off a game where they allowed 125 or more points. So recent history points to them putting the clamps down and bouncing back here. I think the other key is that Dallas needs someone to step up besides Luka Doncic. At home, that should happen. In each of the first two games, Doncic has scored more than the other four starters combined. Look for a more balanced effort from the Mavs tonight as they get back into the win column. |
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05-06-22 | Heat v. 76ers +3.5 | Top | 79-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
Joel Embiid has been downgraded to OUT for Game 3 and that’s not the news Philadelphia wanted to hear as the Sixers are already down 2-0 in this series with Miami. But the Heat have a number of “banged up” players themselves and considering the sense of desperation for the Sixers (who are now back home), I like them to cover in this spot. The market reacted swiftly to the Embiid news with Miami now favored by a few points on the road. But don’t forget, up two games to none in the first round, they lost Game 3 at Atlanta. Even without Embiid, the 76ers are a stronger team than the Hawks. They have James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris. Maxey and Harris each turned in a breakout game in Miami. But Harden was disappointing in the two games, scoring only 36 points and shooting 11 of 28 from the field. I expect him to play a lot better tonight. As a team, look for Philly to shoot much better from three-point land than they did in either of the first two games. They are 14 of 64 from behind the arc in the series. That’s well below their season average of 36.4% for the year. This will be the 76ers first time playing at home in 12 days and only their second game here since April 18th. I expect the place will be “rocking.” Take the home underdog. |
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05-04-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Suns | Top | 109-129 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
The Mavs have now lost nine straight times to the Suns following a rather dismal performance in Game 1 where they lost 121-114 as 5.5-point underdogs. While the ATS result came down the wire, that final score really isn’t indicative of how the game actually went. Dallas was down double digits most of the way. Luka Doncic did his part for the Mavericks in Game 1, turning in a 45-12-8 game. But the rest of the starters combined for just 39 points. Both Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie finished well below their respective scoring averages in Game 1. I’m expecting both to play better tonight. For Phoenix, Devin Booker still seems hobbled by a hamstring injury. He’s shot just 12 of 32 in the two games since returning. Defensively, the Mavs have been one of the top teams in the NBA this year. They allow only 104.5 points per game and kept Utah, one of the league’s most efficient offenses, to only 99 points per game. Doncic has only played two of the four games against Phoenix this year. I think the Mavs’ three-point shooting keeps them in this game and I would not rule out an upset here. Grab those points. |
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05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Boston should bounce back in Game 2. They shot 10 of 34 (just 29.4 percent!) from inside the arc in Game 1. That was their lowest shooting percentage on two-point attempts all season. There have been only seven times all year that the Celtics shot below 45 percent from two-point range. Following those poor shooting nights, the team has consistently been able to rediscover its shooting touch, making an average of 55 percent from inside the arc the next game. I think it’s a given that Boston improves offensively for Game 2. Defensively, they were #1 in points allowed during the regular season. They held Milwaukee to 101 points on 41.1% shooting in Game 1 and I think they are capable of doing the same again tonight. Just to reiterate what I’ve said so far, the Celtics are 10-5 against the spread this season after being held under 100 points. They are 11-5 ATS off a straight up loss as a favorite. Remember that Milwaukee is missing its second leading scorer Khris Middleton. His production is more difficult to replace on the road. Not sure the Bucks can count on another 25-point performance from Jrue Holiday tonight. They are 1-4 ATS this season after allowing 90 points or less the previous game. Lay the points in Game 2. |
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05-02-22 | Mavs +6 v. Suns | Top | 114-121 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 9 m | Show |
Phoenix, who has the league’s best record, is a big favorite to win this series with Dallas. But it was by no means a dominant first round effort by the Suns. They needed six games to eliminate the 8-seed New Orleans and posted the lowest net efficiency rating of any team that advanced. Some of the subpar performance could be pinned on leading scorer Devin Booker missing most of the series. Booker played in only three games and only once did he log more than 32 minutes. The Suns did win both games Booker finished. But what about Dallas eliminating Utah, despite not having Luka Doncic the first three games? That was more impressive than the Suns without Booker. The Mavericks have covered five in a row and the only game they lost was decided by one point. The Mavs last win over the Suns came in November of 2019. They’ve lost nine in a row to Phoenix since. But recall Milwaukee’s history vs. Boston was not good. Until yesterday when I backed the Bucks. Two of the three games Dallas lost to Phoenix this season, Doncic was out. These teams are more even than you’re being led to believe. Not only does Dallas have Doncic, they have Jalen Brunson, who averaged 27.8 points per game in the first round. Defensively, the Mavs are one of the top teams. They held Utah to 99 points per game. For the year, they are holding opponents to 104.3 points per game. |
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05-01-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +2.5 | Top | 117-116 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
Needing all those late game heroics to overcome Minnesota in the first round, Memphis almost seems like it’s being “written off” for Game 1 against Golden State. But the Grizzlies are at home Sunday where they are 8-2 straight up and against the spread as underdogs this season. I say grab the points in Game 1 as the Warriors look like a VERY “public” side. Memphis won three of the four regular season games against Golden State and handed the Warriors their worst loss of the season. That comes with an asterisk though as the Warriors’ 28-point loss here in Memphis came without the services of Curry, Thompson and Green. But that doesn’t mean the Grizzlies won’t win again here. Golden State is only 23-20 on the road where it gives up about six more points per game than they do at home. Also the Warriors might be rusty. They haven’t played since Wednesday. Five Grizzlies averaged double figures in round one and it was not Ja Morant leading the way. It was Desmond Bane, who averaged 23.5 points and made 27 threes. Morant wasn’t far behind with a 21.5 PPG average vs. Minnesota. Memphis is 32-12 at home, winning by almost nine points per game. They are a great value play in Game 1. Grab those points. |
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05-01-22 | Bucks +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 101-89 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
The Celtics were the only team to pull off a sweep in the first round, making it look easy against the Nets. But the Bucks needed only five games to oust the Bulls. It’s not a surprise to see Boston as the favorite to win this series, they do have the home court advantage after all, but it would be a mistake to write off the NBA Champs. The teams split four regular season matchups with the home team winning every time. Only one of the meetings has been since Christmas, so I’m not looking into them too much. The Bucks did win the last one though, earlier this month, 127-121. Shockingly, the Bucks are 0-9 ATS the last nine games vs. the Celtics. But today’s game marks just the second time that the Celtics will have been favored to beat the Bucks. Khris Middleton is a big loss for the Bucks (he’s their second leading scorer), but consider the way Milwaukee played defense in the first round. They posted the best defensive efficiency rating of any team. Giannis Antetokounmpo can still carry this team to victory. For Boston, Jaylen Brown is dealing with an injured hamstring. This is a far more even matchup than what the series odds say. Grab the points in Game 1. |
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04-28-22 | Suns v. Pelicans +2.5 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
The Suns were expected to roll in this series, but now are hoping just to avoid a Game 7. Leading scorer Devin Booker hasn’t played since Game 2. Phoenix has won two of the three games without him and a Game 6 return by Booker is now considered a possibility. But I like the Pelicans at home in this one. The old trusty zig-zag theory has played out according to script in this series. Neither team has been able to cover two in a row. If that pattern holds, then New Orleans will likely force a Game 7 (they are short underdogs). The last game in New Orleans was won by the Pelicans 118-103. The Pels were then betrayed by three-point shooting in Game 5, making only 5 of 25 attempts. They’ll be far better than that in tonight’s game. CJ McCollum was 1 for 8 from distance in Game 5 and 3 for 17 the last two games. I expect him to start making shots at a higher percentage here. The Suns have yet to score more than 114 points in any game during the series. New Orleans is averaging 111.5 at home for the season. If they hit their average, we’re in good shape tonight. Don’t think Mikal Bridges will score 31 again like he did in Game 5. (That was a career playoff high). Booker or no Booker, I don’t like the Suns’ chances here. Take the points. |
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04-26-22 | Hawks v. Heat -7 | Top | 94-97 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
After completely destroying the Hawks in Game 4, 110-86, the Heat have a chance to close out this series at home. All three of Miami’s wins in this series have been by double digits while Atlanta’s lone triumph was by a single point after a Trae Young game winner. The Heat probably should have swept this series. Look for them to close things out tonight. Atlanta just isn’t any good defensively. They are allowing 112.5 points per game in the series, which I guess is not all that surprising as they allowed 112.4 in the regular season and came into the playoffs with the worst defensive efficiency rating of all remaining teams. It hasn’t helped that Young has struggled mightily. He’s averaging just 16.5 points per game while shooting 32.1 percent from the field and 20.8 percent from three. He was held to just nine points on 3 of 11 shooting in Game 4 and he attempted just one free throw as 10 of his 11 shots were launched from behind the arc. Young and the Hawks have now been held under 100 points in two of the four games. Miami clearly knows what it’s doing defensively and Atlanta has no game plan to solve it. The Hawks are 0-42 ATS in their straight up losses this season, including 0-23 as underdogs! They are 6-20 ATS as road underdogs. Series over. |
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04-25-22 | Celtics +1.5 v. Nets | Top | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Could the Nets really be swept right out the first round? Bet on it! Boston, who many believed could come out of the East if they won this series, is quickly cementing itself as the team to beat in this conference. They are clearly the better team in this series and I will take the points in Game 4. Though both Philadelphia and Golden State failed to sweep their series, teams holding a 3-0 series lead are still on a 29-15 straight run in Game 4’s. There is simply no homecourt advantage for Brooklyn this year as they’ve gone 9-33 ATS at the Barclays Center. While the knee-jerk reaction to that record is to blame the absence of Kyrie Irving for most of those games, the bottom line is the Nets are 1-7 ATS their last eight games here, including the 109-103 loss in Game 3. Kevin Durant is struggling mightily in this series. He’s averaging only 22 points per game on 36.5% shooting. That scoring average would be the lowest in any postseason series in Durant’s entire career. I can’t say that I’m that surprised as Boston is arguably the top defensive team in the NBA. They are even stronger with Robert Williams back. Al Horford is having himself an excellent series. Jayson Tatum is averaging 29.7 points and Jaylen Brown is averaging 22.7 while shooting better than 50 percent. Boston is 14-8 ATS in the underdog role this season. Brooklyn is 17-38 ATS as a favorite. I expect the Celtics to end this series Monday night. |
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04-23-22 | Mavs v. Jazz -5.5 | Top | 99-100 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
The Jazz ought to be embarrassed here as they are down two games to one in this series, despite Luka Doncic having not played a single minute for the Mavericks. Doncic says he’s feeling “no pain” in his calf and thus his status has been upgraded to questionable for Game 4. Either way, I like Utah minus the points in this one. Perhaps the Jazz got overconfident when it was announced that Doncic would miss Game 3. They were down 17 at halftime and while it turned into a close game in the fourth quarter, Utah still lost by eight points. This despite shooting 56.5% overall from the field and going 31 of 33 from the free throw line! The big difference in Game 3 was Utah shooting 9 of 28 from three while Dallas was 18 of 42. Making twice as many three as your opponent is a big deal and is a discrepancy that certainly isn’t likely to be repeated here in Game 4. I also can’t see Jalen Brunson continuing his run, whether Doncic returns or not, as Brunson has averaged 36 points the last two games. Utah is an outstanding team at home where it has outscored its opponents by 9.4 points per game this year. Only Golden State has beaten its visitors by a wider margin over the course of 2021-22. This is a must win game for the Jazz. Whether or not Doncic returns for Dallas, look for the Jazz to cover the spread. |
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04-22-22 | Suns -1 v. Pelicans | Top | 114-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
Even without Devin Booker, I expect the Suns to beat the Pelicans in Game 3. They outscored opponents by 7.6 points per 100 possessions without Booker when Chris Paul was on the court. Look for Cameron Payne to step it up in Booker’s absence as well. In Game 2, New Orleans took full advantage of Booker leaving, springing a 125-114 upset. They shot the lights out, making 17 of their 30 three-point tries and finishing at 54% overall from the field. Even though they are now back at home, don’t look for the Pelicans to match their Game 2 shooting. It is important to note that Phoenix is 14-3 against the spread this season when seeking revenge for a loss. They are 63-34 in that situation the previous three seasons. The Suns are simply the better team here, having won 63 games in the regular season. Booker missed 14 regular season games. The team has the second highest defensive efficiency rating on the road and can claim a 13-3 ATS mark when the spread is three points or less, in either direction. Coming off its best three-point shooting night of the entire season, there’s no way that New Orleans doesn’t regress offensively here. It would be a shock to see the Pelicans win this series, so I’m playing this one accordingly. |
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04-19-22 | Pelicans +10 v. Suns | Top | 125-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
The Suns did nothing in Game 1 to dissuade you from thinking they are the best team in the league. They jumped all over the Pelicans, taking a 28-16 lead after the first quarter and never looking back after that. They led by 19 at halftime and ended up winning 110-99, just barely covering the 10-point spread. Remember that New Orleans had to win twice just to get here, so they were at a severe disadvantage heading into the first game. But that disadvantage no longer exists for Game 2 and I’m liking the Pelicans to at least cover the spread in tonight’s matchup. While Phoenix is 24-3 straight up this season as a favorite of eight points or more, they are only 14-13 against the spread. New Orleans shot especially poorly from two-point range in Game 1. They made only 27 of 72 attempts inside the arc, which is 37.5%, a very low number. Expect them to be more efficient there tonight. Eight missed free throws in Game 1 didn’t help the Pelicans either. Despite digging themselves into such an early hole, the Pelicans found themselves down only six in the fourth quarter. I don’t expect them to fall into that kind of an early hole again in Game 2. Take the points here as New Orleans is 5-1 ATS following its previous six SU losses. |
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04-16-22 | Wolves +6.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 130-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
Minnesota had to win a game in the Play-In Tournament to get here, but I believe they are being undervalued in Game 1 at Memphis. The Timberwolves were very much on par with some of the teams in the West’s top six - like Dallas and Denver - and I expect them to make this a competitive series. I am pretty confident that the Timberwolves will get a better game out of Karl-Anthony Towns than what they got Tuesday vs. the Clippers. Towns played one of the worst games of his career, finishing with 11 points on only three made baskets. He also fouled out. But teammates Edwards (30 points) and Russell (29) bailed KAT out. These teams met four times in the regular season and each won twice. While the home team won all four games, all but one was close and that was a 138-95 win for the Timberwolves. Thanks to that one blowout, Minnesota outscored Memphis in the four games and shot better - both overall and from three. The fact Memphis hasn’t played a meaningful game in quite awhile may have an adverse effect here. Ja Morant has played only one game since March 18th. He was 3 for 20 on three-point attempts in the four games vs. Minnesota this year. The Timberwolves have won and covered all three times this year when they’ve played with three or more days of rest. Memphis did have the second best record in the league and isn’t what I’d call a “public team,” but they are overvalued here. Take the points. |
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04-15-22 | Pelicans +4.5 v. Clippers | Top | 105-101 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
It’s win or go home for the Pelicans and Clippers tonight on ESPN. The winner of this game will be the 8-seed in the Western Conference. The loser’s season will come to an end. Home teams have gone 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS so far in the play-in tournament. New Orleans was one of the four winners by beating San Antonio 113-103. They were up by as many as 19 points in the fourth quarter. The Clippers were not as good down the stretch in Minnesota and they lost 109-104. But by virtue of finishing in 8th place, they get a second chance and are the home team for this game. The Pelicans’ top three players all got the job done Wednesday. CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas combined for 81 points on 32 of 56 shooting. I do not think you should look too much into the team’s 37-46 SU record. They are 34-30 since a dreadful 3-16 start and have been a much better team since acquiring McCollum. The Pelicans were 3-1 vs. the Clippers this season with the three wins coming by an average of 18.7 points. Also, Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS this season when playing with exactly two days of rest. Even with the home court advantage, I’m not sure that LA should be favored here. Certainly not by this many points. Take the underdog here as an outright win would not surprise me. Paul George just doesn’t have enough help. |
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04-10-22 | Pistons +14.5 v. 76ers | Top | 106-118 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
The 76ers won Saturday 133-120 against Indiana. Joel Embiid had 41 points and 20 rebounds, the first time this season that any player had a 40-20 game. Embiid all but wrapped up the scoring title and the Sixers are guaranteed home court advantage for their first round playoff series. There’s a chance that by the time this game tips off, the Sixers will be locked into the 4-seed. In order to move up into third, they would not only need to win this game, but have Boston lose earlier in the day to Memphis. If Boston wins that game, then the Sixers are locked into 4th. With the chance the Sixers have nothing to play for, I’ll take my chances here and grab the points. And even if the 3-seed is still a possibility, I don’t think the Sixers will win by enough to cover the spread. There’s a chance that a Pistons’ win might hurt their lottery odds, but I still expect a semblance of pride and professionalism to take place here. "We just want to finish with the right spirit and the right togetherness," Pistons head coach Dwayne Casey said. Detroit has been on some incredible runs at the betting window. They are 18-3 ATS L21 as an underdog and 11-0 ATS L11 road games. Grab the points. |
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04-08-22 | Knicks v. Wizards | Top | 114-92 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
The Wizards and Knicks enter Friday with identical 35-45 straight up records. It’s been a disappointing campaign as both made the playoffs last year. The Knicks have really fallen as they were 4th in the East last season. New York has lost three of four, the only win coming against last place Orlando. They blew a 21-point lead to the Nets on Wednesday and ended up losing that game 110-98, not even covering! Washington also experienced a double digit setback two days ago. They fell 118-103 in Atlanta. Before that though, they’d won three of four and put up 127 or more points in all three wins. I think by virtue of being at home, the Wizards have the edge Friday. This is their last home game of the season, so there should be some motivation to win the final game in front of fans. They are 5-1 ATS following a SU loss, going back to the end of March. The Knicks have covered eight straight times as road underdogs and won their last four road games straight up. But those streaks end tonight. Two of those road wins were Orlando and Detroit. The Knicks (27th in scoring) just won’t be able to match the Wizards (119.8 PPG L5) offensively. |
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04-05-22 | Spurs v. Nuggets -7 | Top | 116-97 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
It may seem like San Antonio is getting “a lot” of points in this matchup, but consider this is a team that has been well below .500 most of the year. There is a reason they are just trying to squeak into the play-in tournament. They simply aren’t that good. It’s true that the Spurs have been winning lately, six of their past seven games. But three wins were against a dreadful Portland team and they also beat last place Houston. Denver is in a different class of those aforementioned foes. The Nuggets are looking to clinch a spot in the top six of the conference standings, which will allow them to avoid the play-in tournament. They just need to win two of their final three games, all of which are at home The Spurs’ leading scorer Dejounte Murray has been ruled out for tonight. That’s significant. Denver has scored 125 or more points in each of its last three contests. This is a team that’s been on fire offensively and without Murray, I don’t see how the Spurs keep up. |
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04-05-22 | Bucks -4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 127-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
The Bulls just can’t beat the top teams in the league. On Saturday, they lost by 16 here at home to the Heat, dropping them to 2-19 for the season against the four best teams in the East and West. The Bulls’ record vs. Milwaukee this year is 0-3, two of those losses coming last month, the last one by 28 points. Throw in the fact the Bucks are going to come in motivated tonight and I’m all about fading the Bulls in this one. The Bucks have lost two straight. One of the losses saw them give up 153 points. The other, Sunday vs. Dallas, saw them blow an early lead. That game where Milwaukee allowed 153 points should be disregarded as they rested their starters. The Bucks should be at full strength tonight. Look for Antetokounmpo and Middleton to shoot the ball better than they did vs. Dallas. In that last game, the duo combined to go 15 of 38 from the field and 0 for 7 from three. The Bulls have the worst point differential of the Eastern Conference’s top six teams. In fact, eight teams in the East have a better point differential. Chicago would be fortunate to avoid the play-in round. Milwaukee is all but assured of a top four seed and home court advantage for the first round. But they still have an outside chance at finishing first (2.5 games out) so roll with them Tuesday. The Bucks are 10-1 ATS their last 11 games in Chicago. |
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04-04-22 | North Carolina v. Kansas -4 | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
For the second half of the Miami game and first half against Villanova, Kansas pretty clearly looked like the best team in the country. They outscored those two opponents 87-44 over that 40 minute span. Now you may consider that to be “cherry picking” the best of the Jayhawks. But at no point in this NCAA Tournament have I ever believed they were in real danger of being eliminated. North Carolina trailed at the half in the Sweet 16 and Final Four. They also were taken to overtime by Baylor after blowing a 25-point lead. The Tar Heels were an 8-seed coming into this Tournament, so few expected them to get this far. This is the fourth time in six games where the Heels are underdogs. I think their run ends Monday. Let’s start with an update on the ankle injury to UNC’s Armando Bacot. Coach Hubert Davis has dubbed him “ready to play,” but having your leading scorer and rebounder injured going into the biggest game of the season is not ideal. Bacot also leads the Tar Heels in blocks and field goal percentage. I expect David McCormack of Kansas to take advantage of Bacot being less than 100 percent. McCormack went for a season-high 25 against Villanova. Also, don’t forget about Ochai Agbaji, who leads the Jayhawks in scoring. Kansas is more experienced on the bench as Bill Self has been here forever and won a National Championship. North Carolina’s Hubert Davis is a rookie coach. The Jayhawks’ top eight scorers have played in a combined 973 games. They were built for this. Lay the points. |
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04-03-22 | Pelicans v. Clippers -1.5 | Top | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
Talk about a shocking performance. The Clippers beat Milwaukee 153-119 on Friday night. Now both teams elected to rest starters in that game. But that can’t take away from the fact that it was the most points scored EVER in a regular season game in Clippers’ history. The Clippers are going to be in the play-in tournament, probably as the 8-seed, which means they’ll only have to win once to make the playoffs. That means the Pelicans, currently 9th, will have to win two games in the play-tournament. It would take New Orleans winning all of its remaining games - and the Clippers losing all of theirs - for the teams to trade spaces. The Pelicans have won the last five meetings vs. the Clippers, including all three this season. I understand that coupled with the fact NO is still looking to guarantee its spot in the play in tournament makes them seem like the more attractive side here. But I still like the Clippers. New Orleans is just 16-22 on the road and was lucky to come from behind to beat the Lakers on Friday. They came back from 20+ down to beat the Lakers earlier in the week. The Clippers have scored at least 121 points in three straight games and I cannot see them being swept in the season series. Paul George is back. Lay the short number. |
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04-03-22 | Nuggets v. Lakers +3.5 | Top | 129-118 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
The Lakers desperately have to have this game. Five straight losses have them on the outside of the playoff picture. We tried with them Friday in what was a key showdown vs. New Orleans. LeBron James and Anthony Davis returned to the lineup, but it was not enough as the Lakers blew a fourth quarter lead. Time to try again on Sunday. While the Lakers are just trying to get into the play-in tournament, the Nuggets are trying to preserve their status as a top six team in the West and thus avoid the play-in tournament. A 136-130 loss to Minnesota on Friday, the team chasing them, didn’t help. Utah losing last night did help Denver, who can finish anywhere from 3rd to 7th. One more win will all but seal a top six spot for Denver. But LA is going to be more desperate here. I know the Lakers seem difficult to back right now - they’ve lost 15 of 19 - but James and Davis are both back now and that makes this a much better team. Getting points at home is a bonus! This is a massive revenge game for the Lakers as well. They lost to Denver by 37 back on January 15th in what was their worst loss of the season. Denver is 1-7 ATS this season after it scored 130 or more points in the last game and 4-10 ATS its last 14 games overall. |
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04-02-22 | North Carolina v. Duke -3.5 | Top | 81-77 | Loss | -115 | 57 h 55 m | Show |
UNC is 4-0 ATS in the tournament and going back to the last couple weeks of the regular season, they are on a 10-1 SU run in their previous 11 games, also going 9-2 against the spread. Duke has covered its last three games after a last second layup by Cal State Fullerton handed the Blue Devils a 1.5 point ATS loss in Round 1. Both teams were eliminated by Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament. The only other loss for Duke, over their last 15 games, came to North Carolina, in Coach K’s home finale. The final score of that game was 94-81. That was after Duke won the first meeting, 87-67, in Chapel Hill. To say the Blue Devils will be highly motivated to avenge that last loss UNC is putting it mildly. Duke was clearly the best team in the ACC this year. North Carolina has had a nice run, but it is worth mentioning that they were an 8-seed coming into the NCAA Tournament. Obviously, they are better than how they were seeded, but being an 8-seed shows they are far from the most consistent team. The Blue Devils are just the better team here. North Carolina could have lost to either Baylor or UCLA, before they got lucky and faced a 15-seed in the Elite 8. I’ve never sensed Duke being in any danger in their tourney run. While most teams have struggled to find their shot in the NCAA Tournament, Duke hasn’t. The Blue Devils have made over 50% of their field goal attempts and scored at least 78 points in every game. |
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04-02-22 | Nets -1 v. Hawks | Top | 115-122 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
Two teams that could end up meeting in the play-in round face off on Saturday in a key Eastern Conference clash. Both Brooklyn and Atlanta are 40-37, part of a three-way tie with Charlotte for eighth place. All three teams want to finish 8th as it would mean they only need to win one game, rather than two, in the play-in round. Atlanta, despite being the hotter team (four wins in a row) and at home, is the slight underdog tonight. That’s because Brooklyn still carries a lot of weight with the oddsmakers. I thought the Nets should have won at home over Milwaukee on Thursday. (They ended up losing in overtime, on some last second free throws, after blowing a seven-point lead with two minutes left in regulation). Brooklyn has been a better team on the road this season. Some of that has to do with Kyrie Irving just recently being cleared to play at home. But recently they went on the road and easily beat Miami. The Nets are 23-16 in road games in 2021-22. Atlanta has scored 131 or more points in each of its last three games. That’s pretty impressive. But I don’t think they can keep that up and wouldn’t be at all surprised to see an off-shooting night from the Hawks here. Trae Young did leave the last game with a groin injury, though he did return. Could there be any ill-effect tonight? Before the current four-game win streak, Atlanta was just 1-12 ATS when coming off a SU win. Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS the last six times it has been a road favorite. The Nets are the better team here. |
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04-02-22 | Villanova +4.5 v. Kansas | Top | 65-81 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 26 m | Show |
Villanova is 4-0 ATS in the tournament. Kansas is 2-2 ATS. Villanova has not trailed at halftime in any game. Kansas, the lone 1-seed left, trailed at the half against Miami in the Elite 8, before putting the clamps down in the second half. In three of their four games thus far, the Jayhawks have allowed less than 20 points in one half. Don’t see that happening against Villanova. There’s a major edge at the charity stripe for ‘Nova as they are one of the best free throw shooting teams in College Basketball history. Kansas shoots it at just 72% from the FT line. Jay Wright has fared very well in NCAA Tournament games during his time at Villanova, covering 21 of the last 27. Kansas is 7-20 ATS the previous 27 times they’ve been off a straight-up win by 20 or more points. Villanova is 8-3 ATS in neutral site games this season. Kansas is just 7-5 ATS. Villanova is also 27-17-2 ATS as an underdog over the last 10 seasons. They have the best overall ATS record in the country during that time. The last five head to head meetings between Villanova and Kansas have seen ‘Nova cover all five times. They also won four of the games outright, including a National Semifinal in 2018 by a score of 95-78. These teams seem pretty even to me, and even with the Moore injury, I will be taking the points. |
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04-02-22 | Hornets v. 76ers -5 | Top | 114-144 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This game carries importance for both teams, but more so for Philadelphia, who has lost three straight games and thus fallen behind the other three teams in the chase for the top spot in the East. Losing to Detroit Friday was inexcusable. Charlotte is guaranteed to be in the play-in round, but would like to finish eighth so that they’d only need to win one game rather than two. With eight wins in their last 10 games, the Hornets are probably feeling pretty good about themselves. I still have concerns with a team that is last in the East in scoring defense. The Hornets give up 116.4 points per game on the road. I think they’ll struggle here to stop Joel Embiid and James Harden. Embiid carried the offense vs. the Pistons, but got no help. Harden shot 4 of 15 and had only 18 points. The bench contributed very little, just eight points in fact. Harden will shoot better and, at home, the bench will play better this afternoon. Speaking of the start time, these early ones always seem to favor the home team. Just not a believer in Charlotte in this spot. Philadelphia will be hungrier. |
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04-01-22 | Pelicans v. Lakers -1.5 | Top | 114-111 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
So there’s been some movement with the line here as the statuses of LeBron James and Anthony Davis remain “questionable.” The Lakers lost again last night (fourth straight time) and are in danger of not even qualifying for the play-in round. It’s the Lakers, Pelicans and Spurs that are battling for the last two play-in spots. One will be left out. The Pelicans are two games up on the other two, so they are in good shape. The Lakers need this win more. This past Sunday these teams played. New Orleans won 116-108. In that game, which LeBron played in, the Lakers were up 23 in the first half. That was in New Orleans. The Pelicans are 15-22 on the road though, so I have my doubts about them here, LeBron or no LeBron. New Orleans has only been favored in 20 games all season and just six times on the road! Hopefully, James and/or Davis plays tonight. Even if they don’t, my money is on LA. |
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04-01-22 | Fresno State v. Coastal Carolina +3 | Top | 85-74 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
I like Coastal Carolina to at least cover, and probably win, The Basketball Classic. They get this game at home where they’ve already won twice in the tournament - by 24 and 16 points. Things were a lot closer when the Chanticleers had to travel to face South Alabama on Monday. But they still came out ahead 69-68 in overtime and that is not an easy place to win at (South Alabama had just two home losses previously). Fresno State has played all of its games at home for The Basketball Classic and I can’t see them replicating Monday when they waxed Southern Utah by 19 points. That game saw the Bulldogs make more than 50% of their threes while the opponent shot terribly (31.1% overall, 20% from three). Coastal Carolina is averaging 76.7 points per game at home. They outscore teams by 14.5 PPG here. Fresno State averages only 63.1 points per game on the road. Their last road win came on February 22nd. It was against a terrible Air Force team. The Bulldogs are the favorites here and I’m not exactly sure why! Coastal Carolina is at home, will obviously be motivated and getting points. What’s not to like? FSU is 1-4 ATS its last five tries as a favorite. |
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03-30-22 | Hawks v. Thunder +13 | Top | 136-118 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
In the NBA, taking a double digit favorite on the road is typically not all that wise. When the favorite is a team that is just a game over .500, laying the points in this situation seems very head-scratching. Then you’ve got the matter of Oklahoma City having covered the spread seven straight times. The Thunder are short-handed, but that was the case when they took on Portland Monday and OKC won that game, in overtime, 134-131. They scored a season-high in points despite being without their top five scorers. Atlanta just faced another short-handed team (Indiana) Monday, on the road, and won by only nine. I just don’t know how you can trust the Hawks to beat the oddsmakers’ projection in this one. The Hawks are just 12-25 ATS on the road and 1-5 ATS this season if they scored 130 or more points in their last game. The Thunder have the best ATS winning percentage in the entire NBA at 65.8%. They are 46-24 ATS as underdogs. Grab the points. |
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03-28-22 | Spurs -6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 123-120 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
San Antonio still has a shot, folks. A shot of making the play-in round as they are just one game back of the Lakers, who lost yesterday, for 10th place (the last spot). Having won three straight, the Spurs now have an excellent chance of making it a perfect 4-0 road trip as they take on the Rockets tonight. Houston has won two in a row, both games in Portland, but has not posted three consecutive victories at any time this season, outside of a stunning seven-game win streak in late November/early December. In fact, this is just the second time in 2022 that they have won back to back games. Before beating Portland two straight times, the Rockets had the worst record in the NBA. The Spurs have won the last two meetings by a combined 55 points. Spurs’ leading scorer Dejounte Murray had an “off” shooting night in the last game, but the team still won anyway. I certainly expect Murray to shoot better than 4 of 19 tonight and make a three. (He was 0 for 5 on threes Saturday). Houston gives up a league-worst 117.6 points per game. This is a game that the Spurs simply MUST have, if they are to make the play-in round. I don’t think it will be close. |
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03-28-22 | Coastal Carolina +3 v. South Alabama | Top | 69-68 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
We’re down to the semifinals of “The Basketball Classic” with Coastal Carolina taking on South Alabama. Winner here will meet the winner of Southern Utah vs. Fresno State (also played tonight). I’m taking the dog. This game is taking place in Mobile, but the home court advantage hasn’t been a big boost to South Alabama so far in this tournament. The previous two games were at home and the Jaguars are 0-2 ATS. They obviously won both, but by a total of only six points. Will USA shoot 58.8% again like they did last week vs. USC Upstate? Unlikely. Coastal Carolina has held its opponents to 38.4% shooting overall for the season. The Chanticleers have been far more dominant than South Alabama has in this tournament. CC’s first two wins have been by 24 and 16 points. Going back to the end of the regular season, this is a team that has won five of its last six games. These teams are conference rivals, both hailing from the Sun Belt. It is a huge revenge opportunity for the underdog, who lost the only regular season matchup - by three points at home. Coastal has lost three in a row to USA, but all three losses were by six points or less. They will be amped for this opportunity to exact revenge. |
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03-27-22 | Jazz v. Mavs -2.5 | Top | 100-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
This is an important game that could determine who gets the home court advantage in a possible first round playoff series. Utah and Dallas are tied for fourth place in the Western Conference, both teams sporting 45-29 records. The Jazz won the first two meetings this season, but the Mavs took the last one. All three times the home team has won. Both teams are coming off losses. Utah is actually coming off three straight losses. They have not scored more than 106 points in any of those games. It was a 107-101 loss in Charlotte on Friday. This is the Jazz’s fifth straight game on the road, all played in the last eight days. While Utah was losing in Charlotte, Dallas suffered a critical loss in Minnesota, 116-95. Not only did that loss prevent the Mavs from overtaking the Jazz, but it moved them closer to 7th place, which would mean the play-in round. They are now only 2.5 games ahead of the Timberwolves. The good news for Dallas is that they are 15-3 ATS this season following a game where they did not score 100 points. I can’t see them shooting as poorly tonight as they did on Friday when they made only 38 percent from the field, including 10 of 43 three-point shooting. Defense should improve tonight as well. The Mavs are giving up just 102.1 points per game at home, best in the league. The Jazz have not fared well as underdogs, going just 3-7 ATS when getting points. That includes a 28-point loss in Boston earlier in the week. The offensive downturn coincides with the absence of Bojan Bogdanovic, who is set to miss his eighth straight game tonight. Lay the short number with the home team here. |
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03-27-22 | St. Peter's +9.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 49-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
St. Peter’s has stunned the College Basketball world by becoming the first 15 seed to make the Elite 8. In addition to upsets over Kentucky, Murray State and Purdue, the Peacocks have covered the spread in 10 straight games. They have not lost a game since Feb 20th at Siena. Somewhat lost in the Peacocks’ miracle run is the team they’re facing in the Regional Final is an 8-seed. No one expected North Carolina to get here either, even though the Tar Heels have now won 13 of their last 15 games. With Duke advancing to the Final Four yesterday, EVERYONE is going to be anticipating a Duke-UNC rematch next weekend (UNC handed Duke a humbling loss in Coach K’s final home game). But St. Peter’s has the better defensive efficiency rating in this matchup. They are top 25 nationally in that regard, which tells me that this run is not all smoke and mirrors. This is a team that just held Purdue, who had the country’s most efficient offense, to 64 points. The Peacocks may not win, but I’m taking the points. Remember that North Carolina trailed most of the game against UCLA. I don’t see the favorite scoring a ton of points in this matchup. |
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03-26-22 | Houston -2 v. Villanova | Top | 44-50 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
Houston is the favorite in this Regional Final, despite being the lower seed, as they have covered six in a row and just dispatched top seeded Arizona. The Cougars appear to be as strong as any team left in the field. They are top ten in offensive AND defensive efficiency. No other team still standing can say that. Villanova, like Houston, is 3-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament. They’ve beaten Delaware, Ohio State and Michigan, none of whom were seeded higher than seventh (and the 7-seed Ohio State was basically a pick ‘em vs. 10-seed Loyola Chicago in the first round). ‘Nova’s shooting percentages - both overall and from three - have gone down each game. This will be only the sixth time where the Wildcats are underdogs this year. They are 1-4 (straight up) previously in the role. Houston is one of the top pointspread teams in the entire country at 25-12 ATS, including 9-1 on a neutral court. The way Houston dominated Arizona, an elite team, from start to finish cannot be overlooked. All three Houston wins in this tournament have been by double digits. They’ve actually won six straight by double digits. Defensively, the Cougars are #1 in the country in FG% defense and I think they are going to do an excellent job at limiting Villanova’s threes. Also, look for Houston to continue to clean up on the offensive glass. They’ve collected 10+ offensive rebounds in five straight games. Villanova has allowed 11+ offensive rebounds in five of the last six games, the lone exception coming against Delaware. Lay the points. |
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03-26-22 | Spurs v. Pelicans -5 | Top | 107-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
This is a big game for both teams. New Orleans is tied with the Lakers for the last play-in spot in the Western Conference. San Antonio is two games back and can cut that difference in half with a win tonight. The Spurs are 2-0 on the current trip, including a 37-point win at Portland in their last games. Before that, they took advantage of Golden State not having Steph Curry and won 110-108. In that Portland game, the Spurs made 19 three-pointers, tying a season-high, and 13 of those came in the first half. I do not anticipate them being that prolific from long range here. The last time these teams played, the Pelicans ran away with a 33-point victory, 124-91. That game took place last week. Not enough has changed in the last eight days to convince me the Spurs can make up the gap. New Orleans is coming off a 126-109 win over Chicago Thursday night. Over the last six games, they are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS. They are also 8-2-1 ATS their last 11 games as a favorite while San Antonio is on a 6-13 ATS run as a dog + 4-12 ATS run off an ATS win. Lay the points here. |
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03-25-22 | Rockets v. Blazers +3.5 | Top | 125-106 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
In what is surely a sign that the Trail Blazers are at their nadir, tonight they are underdogs - at home - to the Rockets. Having won just two games after the All-Star Break and announcing Damian Lillard’s season is over, there’s little to celebrate in Portland right now. The team just lost by 37 here to San Antonio. But look for “pride” to kick in and them to beat Houston. The Rockets have the worst record in the NBA and the worst point differential. I don’t believe they should ever be favored on the road. It’s happened only one other time all season. There have been only five games that Houston has been favored in, period. They just lost by 19 at Dallas and have only three wins since the Break. The teams will also play in Portland tomorrow night. The Blazers have captured seven of the previous eight head to head encounters, including 125-110 at Houston in late January. Not only has Houston lost 19 of its last 22 games overall, they are 0-11 L11 road games. And they are favored tonight! I just don’t see why. This is the worst team in the NBA! "It was a disappointing effort. It was a really embarrassing first half. Give up 81 points, they I think at that time had 21 fast-break points, 30 points in the paint, they had it everywhere. I don't know how many threes they made (it was 13). They had it going every which way. By way of that, it was pretty ugly. "I don't think we prepared for the battle that was going to happen. Our guys looked tired, man. They looked really tired to be honest with you." Those were the comments of Blazers’ head coach Chauncey Billups after the loss to the Spurs. Again, look for his team to come out with some pride, at home, after suffering such an embarrassing loss. |
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03-25-22 | Providence +8 v. Kansas | Top | 61-66 | Win | 100 | 128 h 30 m | Show |
So Providence has proven a lot of its detractors wrong thus far by turning in two strong efforts here in the NCAA Tournament. First they defeated high-flying South Dakota State 66-57. That one was impressive because they held the second highest scoring team in the nation to almost 30 points less than its season average. Then, in the second round, the Friars really put the clamps down in a 79-51 blowout of Richmond. Now that was a 13 and a 12 seed that Providence faced. Now they face top seeded Kansas. The Jayhawks have beaten Texas Southern (a 16-seed) and Creighton (who finished several games back of Providence in the Big East). So this is also their stiffest test so far in the Big Dance. Providence has lost only five games this season and only three times by more than five points. That’s a fewer number of overall losses than Kansas. As an underdog, the Friars are 8-1 against the spread. Creighton shot well against Kansas, at least from three, where it made 43%. I think Providence is capable of replicating that kind of long-range success. The Friars are 22-1 this season when making at least 30% or better from beyond the arc. Perfect trend alert: Providence is 8-0 ATS against teams averaging 77 or more points per game. Kansas averages 78.7. I think the Friars will hold the Jayhawks well below their season total, just as they did to South Dakota State and Richmond, both of whom shot under 36 percent. Take the points. |
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03-24-22 | Texas Tech -1 v. Duke | Top | 73-78 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 17 m | Show |
I think we’re about to see the end of a legendary coaching career as this should end up being Coach K’s final time on the bench when Duke faces Texas Tech. Even though they shot 57.1 percent from the field, the Blue Devils’ 85-76 win over Michigan State in the second round was a little misleading, at least when judged on the final score. Duke trailed with under three minutes to go before closing the game on a 13-2 run. The final four points all came at the free throw line, in the last 16 seconds, giving the Blue Devils the cover. Duke will not be shooting 57% against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are arguably the best defensive team in the country. They just held Duke’s ACC rival Notre Dame to 32.7% shooting in a 59-53 Round 2 victory. Texas Tech failed to cover that game as they were laying eight at the betting window. Here we do not need to really be concerned with the pointspread. By the way, the Red Raiders are 18-9 ATS this season when faced with a team that has a winning record. Duke’s defense has been lousy for about the last two months. Over the last six games, the only team that failed to hit 76 against them was first round opponent Cal State Fullerton. Texas Tech scored 97 in its first round game, so they are more than capable of making the Blue Devils pay at the defensive end. |
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03-23-22 | Washington State v. BYU -3 | Top | 77-58 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 25 m | Show |
Washington State and BYU meet in the NIT Quarterfinals on Wednesday, at Provo. BYU has advanced to this point with consecutive 90+ point performances over Long Beach State (93-72) and Northern Iowa (90-72). Both wins came here at home. Wazzu has gotten to this point mostly with defense, downing Santa Clara (another WCC team) 63-50 and then winning at SMU (which is not easy to do) 75-63. The Cougars were three-point underdogs for that second game. BYU has lost only two home games this season. One was obviously to Gonzaga, the other was to San Francisco, another NCAA Tournament team. Earlier I talked about BYU’s recent offensive output. Well, they also are allowing only 63.9 points per game at home. Washington State has played pretty well recently, but is 0-8 against NCAA Tournament teams. BYU is obviously not a NCAA Tournament team, but they were pretty close to being one; I’d say they were one of the top teams that did not get in. I like them as small home favorites. As for the Cougars, they are just 2-6 ATS off their last eight straight up wins. That was 1-6 ATS off their last seven before upsetting SMU three days ago. BYU has had one more day to get ready for this game. |
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03-23-22 | Nets -2.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 120-132 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
Memphis won’t have Ja Morant on Wednesday and that puts them at a disadvantage in this non-conference showdown versus Brooklyn, who will have Kyrie Irving in its lineup (not to mention Kevin Durant as well). The Nets have finally started to put it together, winning six of seven. The lone game they dropped in that stretch was by two points to Dallas in the second night of a back-to-back. In their last game, the Nets beat the Jazz 114-106 and that was short-handed. The team was led by Durant’s 37 points. With the winning run, Brooklyn is only three games back of a top six spot in the East. Getting into the top six is the goal as it would allow them to avoid the play-in round. Memphis is second out West, but not having Morant is huge for this contest. I know the team has won without him in the past. But now they’re facing a team that has two of the best players in the league. The Nets have been better on the road this season, averaging 115.5 points and going 22-15. A lot of that is due to Irving’s status. With the opposition missing its best player and the Nets surging, it’s appropriate to back the visitors here. |
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03-22-22 | Hawks v. Knicks | Top | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 22 h 47 m | Show |
The Hawks currently hold what the Knicks want; that being the last spot for the NBA’s play-in round. Fortunately for Atlanta, they have a five-game lead over New York, even after losing two of three. That should tell you what kind of a struggle it’s been for the Knicks this season. I like Atlanta here … big. These teams developed a bit of a “rivalry” last year with Trae Young’s antics in Madison Square Garden. The Hawks ousted the Knicks from the playoffs and wound up going to the Eastern Conference Finals. As you can tell from looking at the current standings, there’s been some severe regression for both sides. Pointspread wise, the Knicks have been doing better than the Hawks … lately. New York is 7-2 ATS its previous nine games, Atlanta is 1-8 ATS its L9. But the Knicks have failed to cover two straight and lost three of five, straight up. New York is looking for a season sweep here. They’ve beaten Atlanta three times this season, including on Christmas Day when Young was out. But I’m anticipating a much different result on Tuesday with Young in the lineup. I look at this matchup in rather simple terms. The Hawks are better than the Knicks and this is a really short number. While they haven’t been covering much of late, Atlanta has won four of its last six games straight up. The revenge angle should work in their favor tonight. I just can’t see them losing for a fourth straight time to a Knicks team that is 11 games under .500. |
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03-21-22 | Wizards -4.5 v. Rockets | Top | 97-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Washington finally ended its losing streak, defeating the Lakers on Saturday by a score of 127-119. They had to erase a 16-point deficit to do so, but no one is complaining in the Nation’s capital. The Wizards are still 4.5 games back of the last “play-in” spot in the Eastern Conference and desperately need more wins. Fortunately for them, they’ll be in Houston Monday night to face a Rockets team that is 17-54 on the year and already eliminated from playoff contention. That 17-54 SU record is the worst in the entire NBA. Houston has lost its last five games, four of them by at least 13 points. The Wizards will take this game seriously as they actually lost to the Rockets earlier in the year, at home, by a score of 114-111. The Rockets have won only six times since that victory, which was back on January 5th. Houston has only two wins in its last 20 games. All things considered, this is a very short number to go against them. The Rockets have given up more than 120 points in six of the last seven games. That’s a problem when you only average 108.9 PPG like they do. Washington put up 127 on the Lakers with Porzingis leading the way with 27. Back the road favorite here. |
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03-20-22 | Notre Dame v. Texas Tech -7.5 | Top | 53-59 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Notre Dame has already had to win twice to get here and may very well be on fumes going into this second round matchup against Texas Tech. That’s problematic as this Red Raiders team is legit, as we saw in their complete dismantling of Montana State on Friday. I had TT in that one. They won 97-62 as a 15-point favorite. The result was never in doubt with the Red Raiders jumping out to a 18-4 lead less than five minutes in. They wound up shooting 66.7% for the game, the fourth highest percentage ever in the first round, and made 12 of 20 threes. Notre Dame is one of the weaker teams left in the field. Let’s not forget that it took TWO overtimes to get by Rutgers in the “First Four.” Then the Irish got hot themselves against Alabama, shooting 10 of 16 from three-point land. But Texas Tech is perhaps the top defensive team in the country. They are 1st in the defensive efficiency rankings over at KenPom. Look for them to shut down Notre Dame in this one. Don’t be concerned about the Red Raiders being unable to follow up an impressive offensive display. They are 4-0 ATS off the previous four games where they scored 90 or more points. |
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03-20-22 | Houston -4.5 v. Illinois | Top | 68-53 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
Illinois barely survived Chattanooga in the first round, not taking the lead until the final minute. But that’s when you want to have the lead and the Illini prevailed 54-53. It was certainly not an impressive performance and I think the Fighting Illini are in trouble here against 5-seed Houston. Houston made it to the Final Four last season. The Cougars began this year’s tourney run with a dominant 82-68 win over UAB. It’s now eight covers in the last nine games for Kelvin Sampson’s team, who is 30-5 on the year. Illinois was outrebounded by Chattanooga. That’s a terrible sign. So are the Illini’s offensive numbers from the L4 games, a stretch in which they’ve gone 0-4 against the spread. Three of those games have seen the team score 63 points or less and shoot worse than 40 percent from the field. They made only 3 of 17 three-point attempts against Chattanooga. Houston averages 76 points per game while giving up an average of just 59.1. They are one of only five teams in the country to rank in the top 20 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. This is a championship contender. Illinois has failed to cover each of the last six times they’ve been off a straight up win. Lay the points. |
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03-19-22 | Memphis +10.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 78-82 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
So, after a sluggish start, Gonzaga was finally able to pull away from 16-seed Georgia State in the first round. The Zags used a 24-1 second half run to put the game away, but still ended up not covering the large 22.5-point spread. (They won 93-72). Once again, in the second round vs. Memphis, I think the spread will prove to be too large. Memphis has been on a real roll down the stretch. They beat Boise State in the first round 64-53 and covered the three-point spread. The Tigers took control of that game pretty early and never were really threatened after that. They have now won 13 of their last 15 games. I don’t think Gonzaga can count on the wide shooting discrepancy that they enjoyed vs. Georgia State. They shot 50.7%, which isn’t that atypical, but Georgia State shot just 32.9%. Memphis actually did a better job defensively against Boise State, holding the Broncos to 31.5%. The defensive improvement we’ve seen from the Tigers, since Penny Hardaway’s infamous press conference in late January, has been substantial. The most points they’ve given up in a game since February is 74. Only three times have they allowed more than 70. The Tigers are 16-5 ATS their previous 21 tries as an underdog. Grab the points here. |
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03-19-22 | Bucks -3 v. Wolves | Top | 119-138 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
These are two of the hotter teams in the league right now. Milwaukee comes in having taken eight of their previous nine games and has covered the spread in seven of them. Minnesota has been even more profitable with a 9-1 SU and ATS run. Wednesday night, the Bucks couldn’t miss as they shot 51.4 percent from three on their way to a 135-126 win over Sacramento. Offense has not been in short supply for the defending champs during this winning run of theirs as they have averaged 124.6 points per game this month, getting held under 110 just once. Minnesota is probably not the team that can slow down the Bucks. While the Timberwolves’ defensive numbers are better at home, they’ve still given up an average of 113.4 points over their last five games. This is a revenge spot for Milwaukee as they lost at home to the T’wolves, back in October. The final score was 113-108. The Bucks were short-handed going into that game. No such issues tonight as they look to go to 7-2 ATS their last nine games at Minnesota. Lay the short number. |
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03-18-22 | Delaware v. Villanova -15 | Top | 60-80 | Win | 100 | 90 h 36 m | Show |
Villanova should really smash Delaware here. The Blue Hens made a surprise run through the Colonial Tournament as the 5-seed. Now they are facing the Big East Tournament Champs and one of the best teams in the country. This isn’t exactly a Saturday vs. Northeastern. ‘Nova is 10-1 its last 11 games and that one loss was by two points. They are probably going to make a deep run in this Tournament. Late in the game, when it comes to covering this spread, it is nice that the Wildcats are the #1 team in the country when it comes to making free throws. Delaware has never won an NCAA Tournament in five previous tries. They are also 0-15 all-time against Villanova. They had lost three straight games entering the CAA Tournament. Since 2014, Jay Wright’s Wildcats have five wins by 20 or more points as a top two seed in the NCAA Tournament. On offense, ‘Nova will overwhelm the Delaware. Defensively, the Wildcats allow just 63.1 points per game. |
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03-18-22 | Montana State v. Texas Tech -15 | Top | 62-97 | Win | 100 | 89 h 31 m | Show |
Look for Texas Tech to have no trouble beating Montana State on Friday. This 3 vs. 14 matchup is a total mismatch. Texas Tech is #1 in the nation in defensive efficiency. This will serve them well. Montana State normally shoots well, but there’s a big difference in going from facing your typical team out of the Big Sky to the one the Bobcats will face here. Though Montana State was regular season and conference tournament champs out of the Big Sky, this is their first NCAA Tourney appearance since 1996. Texas Tech, who made the Big 12 Final against Kansas, is a regular in this event. They played for the National Championship, under Chris Beard, in 2019. The Red Raiders beat every single Big 12 team at least once this year and had two wins over Baylor, a 1-seed. They are also 8-1 ATS off their last nine straight up losses. Montana State simply will not be able to shoot the three as well as they normally do here. Lay the points. |
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03-17-22 | New Mexico State +6.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 70-63 | Win | 100 | 45 h 1 m | Show |
There have been only five years where a 12-seed has never beaten a 5 in the NCAA Tournament. I’d be shocked if it didn’t happen in this Tournament, so why not take the points here with New Mexico State, a team that is 26-6 on the year? The Aggies have been to the NCAA Tournament before. They made it three straight years from 2017-19. Incredibly, they have lost 11 consecutive first round games, going back to the mid-90s. Eventually, a team is due. This team is better than most previous editions. UConn has not been good at covering games. They are only 3-11 ATS in their previous 14. During that time, they have only four wins by more than seven points. The Huskies have also not won a NCAA Tourney game since 2016. New Mexico State has wins over Davidson, Washington State, Cal Irvine and UTEP. So I don’t expect them to be intimidated at all. Their record as an underdog is a perfect 4-0 against the spread. I have to take the points here in what should be a close matchup throughout. |
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03-17-22 | South Dakota State v. Providence -2 | Top | 57-66 | Win | 100 | 63 h 27 m | Show |
Providence is much maligned as a four seed as they won a lot of close games and thus probably are not as good as their overall record. But the Friars are being WAY undervalued for their first round matchup vs. 13-seed South Dakota State, a team that plays little in the way of defense. The underdog Jackrabbits rank 223rd in the country in defensive efficiency. That is second worst among ALL tournament teams. Not that a team needs any added motivation to win in March Madness, but the way Providence exited the Big East Tournament - an 85-58 loss to Creighton - should have them ready to go here. This is tied for the shortest spread ever in a 4 vs. 13 matchup. The Friars will take it as a sign of disrespect. While South Dakota State has not lost a game since Dec 15, the conference that they play in (Summit) is weak. The Jackrabbits live and die by the three, so thankfully Providence can hang its hat on the fact they are allowing just 31.2 percent shooting from long range. Lay the short number. |
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03-15-22 | Grizzlies -6.5 v. Pacers | Top | 135-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
I won with the Pacers, plus the points, Sunday night. They were getting double digits in Atlanta and “slid in” through the “back door,” meaning they outscored the Hawks by 10 in the fourth quarter to lose by just three points. Indiana is now 2-13 SU in games decided by three points or less this season. Though I was happy to cash a ticket, it was not a great effort from the Pacers on Sunday, at least in the first half. They let Atlanta shoot 60% before halftime, 59.1% from three, and Trae Young scored 33 of his game-high 47 in the first half. Indiana was down by 19 at one point. Seven Hawks finished the game in double figures. Now Indiana must contend with Memphis, who has been one of the better teams in the league this season. The Grizzlies have won their last three games and are tied for second in the West. Memphis has failed to cover the spread its last two times out, but continues to score lots of points. Over the last five games, the team is averaging 122.2 PPG. Dillon Brooks is now back in the lineup after missing 27 games. The Grizzlies have won 21 of their last 28 road games and should not have much difficulty here defeating the injury-riddled Pacers, who play little defense. Three of Indiana’s last four games have seen them surrender at least 127 points. Memphis has covered nine straight Tuesday games. |
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03-14-22 | Nuggets v. 76ers -2 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
Philadelphia was able to get by Orlando last night, though they needed overtime to do so. The Sixers won 116-114, obviously not covering the large spread, but all that matters to them is that they bounced back from the embarrassing home loss to Brooklyn from three nights prior. The Sixers being in a back to back here has definitely created some value as it’s a really short number that they’re being asked to lay, at home no less. They are up against a Denver team that not only is 0-4 ATS its last four games, but was soundly beaten by the 76ers (103-89) back in November. Since James Harden came over in the blockbuster trade, Philadelphia has lost only one time. They’ve scored 116 or more points in each of the six wins. The Nuggets have been giving up lots of points lately, an average of 118.8 over their last five games. They got torched for 127 by Toronto on Saturday and that was at home. I don’t think that the back to back matters too much for Philadelphia, even with last night’s game going to OT, as they’d been off for two days prior to that. The Sixers are 12-4 ATS off an ATS loss. |
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03-13-22 | Pacers +11.5 v. Hawks | Top | 128-131 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
This is a big number, considering Atlanta is only tied for ninth in the conference with a below .500 record. While they’ve been a bit better of late, going 6-4 the last 10 games, the Hawks haven’t beaten anyone by more than six points in over two weeks. Atlanta did beat Indiana by 21 when they played last month. But the Pacers don’t get blown out all that often. They have 12 losses this year by three points or less. That’s the most in the league. They are being outscored by an average of just 2.3 points per game. Last night was a win for the Pacers as they went to San Antonio and prevailed by a score of 119-108. The last time this team won two straight was mid-January. Oddsmakers don’t like their chances of ending that streak tonight. But I do believe Indiana will cover in this spot. They are 7-4 ATS in the second game of a back to back. The Hawks have a game tomorrow night, so they may not be looking to go “all out.” Expect this to be a close game and take the points. |
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03-13-22 | Richmond v. Davidson -3.5 | Top | 64-62 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
Davidson, win or lose today, is probably safe when it comes to making the NCAA Tournament. However, that doesn’t mean the A-10 regular season champs and top seed won’t be motivated to defeat Richmond on Sunday. I’m laying the points as fatigue is probably going to be a factor for the underdog here. Richmond will be playing its fourth game in as many days. Going back to Thursday, the Spiders rallied back from a 14-point halftime deficit to get past Rhode Island. Since then, they’ve upset the #3 (VCU) and #2 (Dayton) in this tournament. It’s a big ask for them to now take out Davidson, who has been the best team in the conference this season. Davidson has only had to win two games to get here and wasn’t really challenged in either. The Wildcats were 18-point winners over Fordham in the quarterfinal round, then 15-point winners over St. Louis in the semis. In both games, they jumped out to big leads by halftime and never looked back. Richmond was again down at the half in yesterday’s game vs. Dayton. In fact, they were down as many as 14 in the second half, with just over 13 minutes remaining. The Spiders did not take the lead for good until less than two minutes remained. Davidson is the better team and has had the easier path to get here. They won at Richmond, 87-84, in the only regular season matchup. I believe Richmond’s defense will crack here against a Davidson offense that is Top 10 in the country in offensive efficiency. |