|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|10-03-22||Cubs v. Reds UNDER 7.5||Top||1-3||Win||100||8 h 46 m||Show|
The Cubs haven't hit especially well lately, but boy are they getting good pitching from all sides. Rookie Cubs' starter Wesneski has been an eye-opener, with 4 of his first 5 starts of the quality variety. The Reds' rookie Hunter Greene has finally harnessed his huge potential and has been pitching very well of late. The Reds are hitting worse than any team in the league lately, just .169/.497 in the last week. Greene should pitch long enough to keep the Reds' pen out of too much trouble. The Cubs are getting solid support from their relievers. Take this game to go under! 9*!
|09-29-22||A's v. Angels OVER 7||Top||2-4||Loss||-110||11 h 37 m||Show|
Now that the Guardians have clinched, the pressure is off in Cleveland. Not so for the Rays whose performance will determine who they play against in the playoffs. Two solid starters face off today. Lefty Springs has an ERA of 1.78 in September, pitching around five innings a start. He allowed 3 runs over 5 innings the last time he faced the Guardians. Quantrill is unbeaten at home this year and is 5-0, 2.52 in his last 7 games, but has been playing with fire in September with an opposing batting average of .330, nearly double that of August.
The Guardians have a solid edge on offense and have been particularly tough on left handed pitching lately. While both teams have very good bullpens, the Rays have relied heavily on their bullpen of late, and may be short in relievers. Today’s total is very low. I ma wagering on this game to go over that total. 9*!
|09-29-22||Rays v. Guardians OVER 6.5||Top||1-2||Loss||-105||7 h 4 m||Show|
Now that the Guardians have clinched, the pressure is off in Cleveland. Not so for the Rays whose performance will determine who they play against in the playoffs. Two solid starters face off today. Lefty Springs has an ERA of 1.78 in September, pitching around five innings a start. He allowed 3 runs over 5 innings the last time he faced the Guardians. Quantrill is unbeaten at home this year and is 5-0, 2.52 in his last 7 games, but has been playing with fire in September with an opposing batting average of .330, nearly double that of August.
The Guardians have a solid edge on offense and have been particularly tough on left handed pitching lately. While both teams have very good bullpens, the Rays have relied heavily on their bullpen of late, and may be short in relievers. Today’s total is very low. I ma wagering on this game to go over that total. 9*!
|09-28-22||Diamondbacks v. Astros UNDER 6.5||Top||5-2||Loss||-105||10 h 7 m||Show|
The Astros have won 3 straight, the Diamondbacks, just 3 of 10. Offense is the difference; the Diamondbacks are 29th at the moment at .192/.576, while the Astros have surged to 3rd in the last two weeks. The Diamondbacks don’t face the Astros often and usually struggle when they do. Two of the three games between them ended in very low totals.
It is a very fine pitching matchup today with Gallen facing Verlander. Verlander has just two starts since returning from the IL, but he is as solid as ever, with the opposition hitting just .162 in September. Gallen was sensational v. the Dodgers last time out, giving up just 1 run on 2 hits over 8 innnings. He is 4-1, with an ERA of just 1.16 L7, bouncing back from a pair of (for him) slightly off starts.
Verlander, battling for another Cy Young, will be all in today. Gallen, as good as he has been, may very well be one of Verlander's heirs apparent. The Astros got to the D-backs' bullpen in the first game of this series, but I expect better success by the relievers in support of their best young starter today. The Astros' bullpen is generally excellent this season. Take the Arizona and Houston to go under the total today.
|09-26-22||Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 9.5||Top||14-8||Win||100||11 h 27 m||Show|
The Red Sox, thrashed by the Yankees, face another AL East foe at home. Seabold, a recent call up is on the mound in game one of the series. He has bounced around this season with four starts under his belt, 3 of them very poor and short. He has been hit extremely hard to date. Don't look for much support from the Red Sox' bullpen. We will likely see a lot of it on Monday, and that is not a good thing.
Lyles starts for the Orioles. He has had mixed results lately, pitching a fine complete game 1 run effort against Detroit last timeout, but struggling in his previous 2 appearances. I never like backing a pitcher after a complete game, especially one accustomed to shorter starts. The Red Sox have had his number this year. In the last two times they faced him, they have hit him hard and often. He has given up far more runs than innings pitched against the Sox.
The total is high but the setting is Fenway and the wind is forecast to be blowing out. That could be exactly what this game will be- a blow out. Both teams can hit, and the opportunities should be there for the taking. The Sox will be in a nasty mood after their lack of success in recent games, and the Orioles are still (sort of) in the wild card race. It could be all out offense. Take this game to go over.
|09-22-22||Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 7||Top||2-3||Win||100||12 h 35 m||Show|
The Dodgers and Diamondbacks have split their series to date and send out a pair of excellent starters to decide matters today. Left hander Urias is 6-1 1.47 in his last 7 games, and has given up just 4 runs over 19 innings in his last three appearances. Galen has an even better ERA over his last 7 games. The only time he faced the Dodgers was in April, when he shut them out over 6 innings.
The Diamondbacks struggle against left handed pitching. 4 of 5 Dodgers games and 5 of 6 D-backs last games have all gone under. The under is also 9-1 in the last 10 when these two teams meet. I am looking for that trend to continue. Take the under again today.
|09-11-22||Tigers v. Royals OVER 7.5||Top||0-4||Loss||-100||3 h 17 m||Show|
The Tigers have won 3 straight, something of an achievement for them. They are hitting surprisingly well at the moment, climbing to 7th in the league in the last week. Their starter, lefty Tyler Alexander, has had a rough ride of late. All of his last three starts were under 5 innings and he has given up more than a run an inning, The bullpen, which has been a bright spot for the Tigers this year, has not been as solid lately.
The 3-7 Royals are struggling, but 2 of those wins came against the Tigers. The Royals' bats have fallen off lately, and the starters have struggled. Singer has been very good in his last 7 starts, however he has regressed slightly in his last 2, allowing 4 runs in each. The Royals bullpen, at the bottom of the barrel for the season, has been slightly better of late.
The Royals should get the opportunity for some runs with Alexander pitching, and Singer has not been quite as tough in his last 2 starts. The Tigers have hit the Royals hard in the first 2 games of this series. Their games lately have been consistently over, and today's total is quite low. Take the Tigers and Royals to go over today.
|09-02-22||Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 9.5||Top||1-9||Win||100||20 h 59 m||Show|
The Red Sox' and Rangers' Thursday game featured both teams' strengths and weaknesses; poor pitching, especially in relief, and solid hitting. Friday's game may be similar. The Rangers start left-handed veteran Dallas Keuchel. Keuchel spent a month in the wilderness before emerging with the Rangers, but it hasn't helped his pitching. He allowed 7 runs and 11 hits over 5 innings in his return start.
Pivetta has been a trooper for the Red Sox this year and has an ERA of 4.12 over his last 7 starts. He struggled against the Rays last time out, allowing 5 runs in 5 innings. He has an ERA of close to a run higher when pitching in Fenway, and doesn't usually go for more than 5 innings.
The Red Sox are hitting very well of late, and especially vs. left handers. The Rangers are scoring runs in bunches. Both pens struggled on Thursday, and will probably have plenty of innings to work on Friday. Thursday's game ended with 17 runs scored, 10 of them in the late innings. Keuchel is not a good bet for a quality start. A similar outcome wouldn't surprise me in game two of the series. Take the Rangers and Sox to go over.
|09-01-22||Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 9||Top||8-9||Win||100||8 h 23 m||Show|
The hard-hitting Rangers have lost 4 straight, and the culprit has been pitching, both starting and relief. They now face the Red Sox and the green monster, a place where they have not been generally successful. The 3-7 Sox return home, where they are under .500 this year. Both these teams are hitting very well and are top five in offense over the last two weeks. The Rangers are hitting left handers particularly well of late.
Well-aged veteran lefty Rich Hill starts for the Sox today. It is hard to see past his last start, a 7 inning gem of a shutout, but this has not been the norm for Hill this year. He regularly pitches 5 innings, and may pay the price after his long last outing. I expect less innings and more runs today.
Glenn Otto starts for the Rangers. Otto has been quite sharp in August with a 2.93 ERA for the month, but reverted to past form in his last start, allowing 4 runs over 5innings. The Sox roughed him up badly for his worst start of the year back in May.
Both bullpens have been awful lately; The Rangers has been overused as well. The total is relatively high today but this is to be expected in Fenway Park. Take the Rangers and Sox to get their hacks in and the total to climb over. 9*!
|08-31-22||Royals v. White Sox OVER 8.5||Top||2-4||Loss||-105||9 h 56 m||Show|
The Royals beat the Sox last night in a bit of a slugfest, and have had good success against Chicago lately. Another win might not be in the offing today. The Royals have not been getting very good pitching of late. Lefty Bubic was on a bit of a run, but that ended abruptly three starts ago. Since then, he has given up 14 runs in just 13 innings. He has been hit very hard (.351) for the month.
He faces right hander Lance Lynn today. After a late start to the season, Lynn seems finally to be rounding into form, with an ERA of 2.83 L7.
The Sox have lost 4 straight games, and their bullpen has struggled to hold a lead. The Royals have been hitting extremely well recently but their bullpen has, if anything, been worse than the Sox’. The wind is blowing out in the Windy City today. Take this game to go over. 9*!
|08-31-22||Padres v. Giants OVER 7.5||Top||5-4||Win||100||6 h 42 m||Show|
The 6-4 Padres are struggling for a playoff spot and a sweep of the Giants would help their cause. They are hitting well lately, especially against left handed pitching, and face a struggling lefty today. Logan Webb has an ERA of 7.00 in his last 7 starts, and has given up 15 runs over 7+ innings in his last two appearances. With such a major control departure, I don't expect Webb to rebound today. The Giants aren't scoring and the starters have struggled in a big way. About the only part of the team that has been at all impressive has been the bullpen.
|08-28-22||Dodgers v. Marlins OVER 7||Top||8-1||Win||100||11 h 0 m||Show|
The Marlins held off the Dodgers for a 2-1 win on Saturday, but it took a complete game effort from Alcantara to accomplish it. The 4-6 Marlins start another fine young pitcher on Sunday. Edward Cabrera has just 7 starts under his belt. He has had four appearances in August and has yet to give up a run. He has given up just 8 hits over 22 innings.
The Dodgers’ Urias has been almost as effective and very consistent. He has allowed 2 runs just once in his last seven games; otherwise it has been 1 or zero.
Miami doesn’t hit at all well and their bullpen is struggling big time. The Dodgers obviously hit very well, but like anyone else, struggle vs top pitching. They have yet to face Cabrera, an early advantage to the pitcher. The Dodgers’ pen has not been its’ usual effective self lately. I expect the total will be low in the early going on Sunday, but not by the day's end. It is a very low total, and I can’t see the Marlin’s pen holding back the Dodgers’ offensive tide in the later innings. The Dodgers pen allowed 4 runs in each of Thursday's and Fridays games. Take Sunday's total to go over. 9*!
|08-26-22||Cubs v. Brewers OVER 7.5||Top||4-3||Loss||-105||20 h 6 m||Show|
Two good starters face each other when the Cubs and Brewers meet on Friday. Both teams have struggled on offense, especially the Brewers at .176/.595 over the last two weeks. The Brewers lost big in their last two games and are just 8-13 in August. The Cubs are over .500 in August, and are hitting a little better than the Brew crew, although they have struggled against left-handed pitching.
Cubs' right-hander Steele hasn't had much success in the win column but he has been terrific elsewhere, with a paltry 1.45 ERA in his last 7 starts. He has thrown a pair of 6 inning shutouts in his last 2 appearances, one of which was against the Brewers.
Lefty Freddy Peralta is just 4 starts back from an extended stay on the IL, and each start has shown improvement. He held the Cubs to 2 runs over 6 innings in his last start.
The Cubs' bullpen owes Steele a good outing or two, the Brewers' pen is usually very dependable, and everyone has had a day off. The total is low but I expect this game to end even lower. Take the Under between the Cubs and Brewers. 9*!
|08-24-22||Diamondbacks v. Royals UNDER 7.5||Top||3-5||Loss||-110||20 h 0 m||Show|
The Diamondbacks were swept by a tough Cardinals team but bounced back on Tuesday. The bats have been nothing special, but at least considerably better than their opponents on Wednesday. The Royals are just 3-7, hitting very poorly, while scoring less than three runs in 8 of 10 games.
Both starters have been performing very well of late. Galen has been as good as anyone lately, with three straight 7 inning shutouts. And an ERA of 1.17 in his last 7 games. The Royals right-hander Brady Singer has also shone, allowing just 3 runs in his last 3 games, while pitching into the 6th or 7th.
Both bullpens have had some question marks lately, but the D-backs’ relievers have held leads for Gallen in his last two starts, and the Royals’ relievers were in tough against the Rays. With 2 excellent starters pitching for length and a pair of relatively weak hitting teams, I am wagering on the Under on Wednesday. 9.0*!
|08-20-22||Mariners v. A's OVER 7||Top||3-4||Push||0||9 h 37 m||Show|
The Mariners are on a tear, with a 7-3 record lately, and post-season a distinct possibility this year. They are hitting much better, scoring 29 runs in their last 3 games, and have a fine bullpen. Gilbert, today’s starter has struggled of late allowing 16 runs over 15 innings in his last three starts. He gave up 4 runs to the A’s in June. The good news is today’s opposition can’t seem to hit anyone well let alone a right-hander.
The A’s are just 2-8 in their last 10 games, .212, .688 OPS lately, and woeful at home. Today’s starter Kaprielian, was exceptional in July, but has slowed down this month. Opposing batters are hitting .277 against him in August, and his starts are seldom over 5 innings. He has a good and a poor start vs the M’s this year. The A’s pen has been competent lately with an ERA of around four.
The Mariners have a very good record against the A’s and are a very solid road team this year. The total today is very low, reflecting the A’s poor offense as much as today’s starters. Gilbert’s latest performances are an issue, and Kaprielian has not been flawless lately. With the M’s swinging very hot bats, I’m wagering on the over today.
|08-20-22||Angels v. Tigers OVER 7.5||Top||3-4||Loss||-110||13 h 48 m||Show|
The Angels are off a 1-0 win over the Tigers, with very long starts for both teams. Neither of these teams is hitting well at the moment although the Angels just had Trout return from the IL. A pair of Left handers face off in Saturday’s game. Detmers has been very good for the Angels lately, with a 2.41 ERA in his last seven starts. The Tigers start Tyler Alexander, a former reliever who has been effective with five straight short starts, allowing no more than 3 run per appearance.
Both offenses have been better vs left handers of late. The bullpens have been poor (Angels) and terrible (Tigers) lately. The total for Saturday’s match is low. I don’t expect 9 and 7 inning superlative starts again on Saturday. The total may be low early, but look for the final score to go over by the end of 9 innings. Take the over. 9*!
|08-18-22||Diamondbacks v. Giants UNDER 7||Top||5-0||Win||100||5 h 44 m||Show|
Generally, when Arizona and San Fransisco meet, you don’t see much in the way of offense. Another under is likely, with two fine starters, both off a pair of excellent appearances, meet up. Gallen, 4-0 2.94 in his last 7 starts, faced the Giants twice in July, allowing just 3 runs over 11+ innings. Webb, off an 8 inning shutout vs the Pirates, also shut out the D-backs at home in July. Both pitchers will likely pitch deep into the game. Gallen pitches well on the road, and especially well in day games. Webb is particularly sharp at home.
The Diamondbacks’ batting has fallen off lately, and the Giants, while hitting well, have had little success against Gallen and, if needed, the Arizona bullpen. Look for another of their meetings to go under today.
|08-15-22||A's v. Rangers UNDER 8||Top||1-2||Win||100||9 h 20 m||Show|
To no one’s surprise, the A’s are the bottom dwellers of the AL, and haven’t won in 8 games. They might have a chance in today’s game. A’s starter Kaprielian has been effective lately with an ERA of 2.35 in his last 7 starts. This will be his third time facing the Rangers in a month. He shut them out once and allowed 3 runs over 5 innings the second time.
He faces right hander Otto, 0-4, 4.66 in his last seven starts. He has been better in August, giving up just 4 runs over 2 starts. The A’s hit him fairly hard when they faced him with 4 runs scored in 4+ innings, a large haul for them.
The Rangers are hot off a winning series vs the Mariners, are hitting the ball well, and getting better than average relief lately. The A’s are managing just .196 vs. right handers. Both of Kaprielian’s last two starts have gone under. With Otto giving up just 4 runs in August, I expect another low scoring game today. Take the A’s and Rangers to go under the total. 9*.
|08-13-22||Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 8||Top||4-6||Loss||-105||19 h 57 m||Show|
With the worst offense in baseball for some time, the 2-8 Tigers are scoring an average of just 2 runs a game in those 9 losses. They at least have a fresh face in the starting rotation. Matt Manning, just two starts back from a very long stay on the IL has looked very solid since returning. He shut out the Rays over 7 innings in his last start, scattering just 4 hits.
At 2-4 in their last 6 games, off a lost series to the Royals, The White Sox are definitely underachieving. Outside of one breakout game, they haven’t scored more than 3 runs in 8 games. The good news for the White Sox is that their starter Giolito, after struggling to a 5.00 ERA in July, has looked sharper in his last two starts, giving up 3 runs in 10 innings.
Both bullpens have failed to hold a lead of late. The Tigers’ pen has been the consistently positive part of the team, but have struggled recently. The White Sox’ relievers have been just average for the season, although they bounced back on Friday.
Don’t look for a lot of runs out of these two teams, especially considering the starters. Take the Under. 9*.
|08-10-22||White Sox v. Royals UNDER 9||Top||3-8||Loss||-102||9 h 15 m||Show|
The White Sox and Royals have split their first 2 games in KC. Both games went under the total. The Sox offense has been anemic of late. Other than an 8 run outburst, the Sox have scored just 9 other runs in their last 6 games. They have been successful in limiting runs, giving up 2 or less in 8 of 10 games. They haven’t given today’s starter Cueto much run support either. Cueto at 3-1. 2.63 L7 has been very solid lately, pitching late into ball games. He was lights out against the Royals in an earlier meeting.
He faces left hander Bubic (2-6, 5.27) who has been much better lately than his ERA would suggest. He has faced most of the AL East in his last 4 starts, hasn’t given up more than 3 runs, and has stretched out his starts into the 6th and 7th. The White Sox have struggled vs. left handed pitching.
The Royals haven’t been hitting well against right handers lately and weren’t successful vs Cueto the last time they faced him. They managed just 5 runs in total in their last 3 game series vs the Sox. The total is high, higher than necessary today. Take the Sox and Royals to go under.
|08-08-22||Nationals v. Cubs OVER 7.5||Top||3-6||Win||100||9 h 10 m||Show|
The 3-7 Cubs’ offense is last in the league over the last 2 weeks. They haven’t scored more than 4 runs a game in their last 10 games but have faced top pitching lately. The are up against the Nationals today who are hitting well at the moment, but whose pitching is in a shambles lately. The Nationals have allowed some very large runs-against totals lately; 24 runs in their last 2 games and 9 against today’s starter Sanchez in his last outing.
Sanchez is just 4 starts away from a year on the IL, but has yet to impress in his return, with a very high ERA and short starts. The National’s bullpen has been overworked and underachieving lately.
The Cubs start right hander Keegan Thompson. At 8-5, 3.48, he has had a solid season, but lately his results have been mixed, alternating between very good (2 shut-outs) and only fair ( a pair of 5 inning 5 run efforts). He has been consistently better at home.
Today’s total is very low, too low considering the Nationals’ pitching staff. Look for that Cubs’ offense to wake up in this series. No doubt the Nationals will manage a few runs as well. Take today’s total to go over.
|08-06-22||Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 9||Top||3-8||Loss||-110||21 h 57 m||Show|
While the Dodgers and to a lesser extent, the new, improved Paderes are hitting the ball hard at the moment, the pitching has also been excellent. The Padres' starter Clevinger's last three starts have been spot on. He has shown great control while giving up just 4 runs over his last 20 innings pitched. He matches up against lefty Andrew Heaney who has been on the IL for much of the year, but when he has pitched, he has been exceptional with an ERA of 0.77 for the season. His starts are short as he builds up his arm strength, but with a bullpen like the Dodgers' (2.27 ERA L15 games), it is hardly an obstacle.
In spite of all the big bats on these two teams, the Padres and Dodgers have a history of frequent low scoring games. Saturday's total is generous. Both starters have been excellent and the relief pitching on both sides has been light-out of late. Take Saturday's total to go under. 9*.
|08-06-22||Yankees v. Cardinals OVER 8||Top||0-1||Loss||-110||20 h 51 m||Show|
The 1-3 Yankees have given up a ton of runs (25) in those last three losses. They aren’t as overpowering on the road or in the last month, but still have that formidable offense, which improved at the trade deadline. It has been the starters who have faltered; the pen is still sharp.
The Cardinals swept the Cubs, and have won 6 of 7, allowing 3 runs or less in all of those wins. While the Cardinal starters have been very fine, the pen has been just average.
Right-hander Germaine starts for the Yankees. He has just three starts since returning from the long term IL, but has shown improvement in each start. At this point he won’t be pitching for length, and opposing batters have hit him to the tune of .286 BA.
Lefty Montgomery start for the Cardinals, no doubt still in shock from his surprise trade. He hasn’t pitched well in his last two starts, giving up 8 runs over 6+ innings. It is hard to know how Montgomery will react, but again I am not expecting a long start on Saturday.
The Cardinals are top five in offense, and almost a match for the Yankees in OPS at the moment. I am not counting on a great outing from Montgomery and the Cards will get their hacks vs Germaine. With a modest total tomorrow, I’m wagering on the over.
|07-29-22||Twins v. Padres UNDER 7.5||Top||1-10||Loss||-110||20 h 26 m||Show|
A pair of 5-5 underachieving teams square off on Friday. The Padres have been in the hitting doldrums for some time but have managed to raise their runs-scored average to over 4 in their last 4 games. The Twins don’t usually lack for offense, but they haven’t been up to snuff lately. Their problem has been pitching and while tomorrow’s starter has been effective, the relif pitching has been a shambles.
Rookie Joe Ryan has been a bright light for the Twins’ pitching staff. He has been very good in July with a 2.05 ERA, allowing just three runs total in his last three starts. Ryan does not pitch commonly for length.
The Padres start lefty Snell, who has struggled since returning from the IL. Much was expected of him, and he has looked better in July. He was lit up for 5 runs in 3+ innings two starts ago, but was much better in his other three appearances this month.
While the two starters can and have impressed, neither pitches for length. Relief pitching has been dreadful for the Twins lately and unusually unimpressive for the Padres.
Friday’s total is low, but I believe it will be the bullpens that decide this game. We’ve seen plenty of overs, even in the Padres’ games. Take the Twins and Padres to go over tomorrow. 9*.
|07-26-22||Rays v. Orioles UNDER 7.5||3-5||Loss||-105||8 h 60 m||Show|
It is hard to know what to think about the Rays this season. They’ve lost three straight, scoring just 6 runs total. This is a team seriously depleted by injury on the offense and pitching sides, with their usually exceptional bullpen not quite up to standard. They are not particularly good on the road this season, however they run out their ace McClananhan (10-3, 1.71). He hasn’t given up more than one run per 6 or 7 inning start in his last five appearances, with a strikeout to walk ratio of better than 8 to 1 in June and July.
The 6-4 Orioles are impressing lately, especially at home. They beat the Yankees in their last series and downed the Rays last night. The O’s are getting solid offense and fine support from their relievers lately. Watkins pitches on Tuesday, His season blew up in May, but since returning to the big leagues he has put up 4 straight quality starts, giving up just 3 runs total. He has held opposing batters to a .177 BA in July.
Nobody has solved either of these two pitchers recently, and at least one team is struggling on offense. McClanahan is good for length and the Orioles’ pen is very good lately. I am taking the under today, and so should you!
|07-25-22||Rockies v. Brewers OVER 8.5||Top||2-0||Loss||-100||9 h 14 m||Show|
The Rockies have lost 4 straight and are in danger of being swept by the home team Brewers. They have still scored 18 runs in the series to date, so it hasn’t been the offense that has struggled. They haven’t had much in the way of pitching lately, which includes Freeland, today’s starter. He has struggled to a 5.57 ERA in his last 7 starts, giving up close to a run an inning in his last three. Opposing batters are hitting .300 in July.
The Brewers’ bats are on fire lately, taking advantage of the Rockies’ pitching woes, but all is not roses with their usually very fine pitching staff. The bullpen in particular has been hard hit with an ERA of 6.85 in their last 5 games. Today’s starter young lefty Ashby spent some time on the IL in June and hasn’t been right since. He hasn’t pitched past the 5th and has an ERA of 5.79 in July. He lasted just 1 inning in his last start.
We’ve seen 43 runs in the first 3 games of this series, and neither starters’ recent performance suggests anything different for today. I am totally on the over in today’s Rockies/Brewers game. 9*
|07-24-22||Marlins v. Pirates UNDER 7.5||Top||6-5||Loss||-115||12 h 26 m||Show|
The Pirates and Marlins split a 4 game series in Miami recently with just 1 of 4 games going over 6 runs total. So far they’ve split the first two games of the Pittsburgh series, with Saturday’s final a minuscule 1-0. The Marlins’ offense is the picture of futility over the last two weeks at just .203/.521 OPS and 2 HR. While they exploded for 8 runs on Friday night, they have managed just 1 run total in 4 of their last 5 starts. The Pirates looked pumped up by comparison, but they are hardly an offensive powerhouse, and face arguably the league’s best pitcher on Sunday.
Miami’s starter Alcantara (9-4, 1.76) has thrown 23 innings in his last three starts and given up just 2 runs, striking out 26. He has been consistent and masterful all season, and hardly needs much in the way of relief. The Pirates haven’t faced him this season and are likely in for a rude awakening.
The Pirates counter with Keller (3-7, 4.55). While his stats aren’t imposing, Keller has turned his season around, and has been much better in his last couple of starts. He shut out the Rockies in Coors field over 6 innings, and held the Marlins to 1 run over 5 innings. The Pirates pen has struggled lately, but the Marlins are not much of a threat with the bats.
Look for continued excellent pitching from both starters, and a continuation of low-scoring games between these two teams. Take Miami and the Pirates to go Under on Sunday.
|07-23-22||Guardians v. White Sox UNDER 8.5||Top||7-4||Loss||-120||1 h 34 m||Show|
The Guardians face the home team White Sox in game 2, after a big 8-0 win on Friday. Home field has been no advantage for the Sox this year; they have a better record on the road. Both of today’s starters have had a very solid month of July. Young right-hander Triston McKenzie was poor in June, but has been lights out in his last 3 starts, giving up 0 runs in 21 innings. He faces the Sox veteran Cueto who has also been sharp in July, giving up just 3 runs over 19 innings with an ERA of just 1.35.
The Guardians, winners of 4 straight, are hitting with authority, but they have struggled when facing quality pitching. The Sox have righted the ship on offense, but are not at their best with right-handed pitching. Both bullpens have been sparkling of late.
I am wagering on the total today. McKenzie is a very promising pitcher, and his last start was possibly his best yet. Cueto is showing better than he has in years. The total is moderate today, generous considering these two teams’ recent pitching success. Take the Guardians and White Sox to go under.
|07-22-22||Cubs v. Phillies UNDER 9||Top||15-2||Loss||-105||19 h 59 m||Show|
The Cubs have just 1 win in 10 starts and have scored 3 or less in 9 of those games. They haven’t had much length from their starters, but it is obviously the offense that is the real culprit. Their bullpen has been hanging in there with an ERA of 3.50 in spite of being used for 4 plus innings on average per game L10. Cubs lefty Justin Steele (3-6, 4.15) has turned things around this season, with an ERA of under 3 in May and June. Opponents have hit just .178 against him this month, and he is just about the only Cubs starter to pitch into the 6th or 7th lately.
The 5-5 Phillies are also struggling on offense, although they did break out in their last start. They are getting very solid pitching from their starters as well as from their often maligned bullpen recently. Kyle Gibson starts for the Phillies, and was hit hard three starts ago, giving up 4 home runs. He has been lights out since, allowing just 1 run over 13 innings. He is not usually a victim of the long ball.
Both these starters are showing well, and neither offense has been up to snuff lately. I expect another good outing from both pitchers on Friday, and runs could be scarce. Both pens will benefit from a few days rest. The over is higher than I might have expected and we have seen a ton of low-scoring outcomes from both of these teams recently. Take the Cubs and Phillies to go under. 10 stars.
|07-17-22||Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8||Top||2-13||Win||100||5 h 21 m||Show|
Here is an interesting matchup; Boston vs. the Yankees in New York, with the newly returning Chris Sale against the Yankees ace Gerrit Cole. Sale look fine in his first game back, tossing five innings of shut-out ball. In his second start back from a long lay-off, the Sox aren’t likely to run up his pitch count.
The Red Sox have won just two games in ten, both against the Yankees in Boston. The Yankees appear to have taken offense, and pummeled them last night in the New York opener. The Sox’ offense is not in step at the moment. They are hitting right-handers at just a .206 clip, which does not bode well against Cole. On that note, two Sox batters, Devers and Martinez have had tremendous previous success vs Cole.
The 5-5 Yankees have lost a bit of their shine lately. Their usually dependable starters have an ERA of over five in their last ten games, and their pen isn’t in its usual fine form at 4.76 L10. Cole was great in his last start but gave up 7 runs total in his previous two starts. Cole is very much better when pitching in Yankee stadium. His ERA of 2.08 at home is half of what it is on the road.
It is hard to know what to expect out of Sale on Sunday, but I don’t think he will shut out New York The Yankees are hitting very well at the moment and are very tough on left-handers, especially for power. The Bombers are a very big favorite but Sunday’s total is low. This is the Mightly Yankees and theirlong time rivals. Take the over on Sunday>
|07-17-22||Royals v. Blue Jays OVER 9||Top||2-4||Loss||-105||4 h 51 m||Show|
The Royals and Jays finish up the first half in Toronto. The Royals aren’t a very good road team usually but this series is much tougher as the Royals are very depleted due to Covid border issues. Plenty of drama on the Jays side also, as Toronto sacked their manager after a disappointing first half.
We will see a pair of underachievers on the mound on Sunday. Jays’ starter Berrios (7-4, 5.38) has been an enigma this year, sometimes living up to his enormous potential, and sometimes just floundering. Berrios is 5-0, 3.40 ERA at home, with just a pair of victories and double the ERA on the road. In his last three starts, he has tossed 6, 6, and 5 innings and given up 6 runs in total.
He faces Royals’ lefty Bubic (1-6, 6.63), whose April and May starts were beyond bad. June and July have been better, pitching to an ERA of 4.6+ over the month and a half, but batters are still hitting him very hard.
The Jays have been hitting very well in the last week, doubling the Royals in home runs and up 50 points in batting avg. The Jays have never faced Bubic, and the Royals have limited experience against Berrios, although frankly no-one has even heard of half the Royals’ line up in this series.
It is hard to know what to think of either starter on Sunday. With Bubic’s track record and the Jays bats on fire, the Jays will have the opportunity to run up the score a bit. The Royals have had a lot of short starts lately, so have taxed the bullpen pretty heavily. The Jays starter went just three innings today, but they have had the benefit of some longer starts lately. Toronto's pen is fine at the moment hbut that has not always been the case this season.
Berrios is the big question tomorrow. Even with 3 straight quality starts, chances are he will give up some runs, and his inconsistency is troubling. I am wagering that the Jays and their five All Stars have big day at the plate and that both bullpens give up a few runs each. Take the Total to go over on Sunday. 9 stars.
|07-07-22||Giants v. Padres OVER 6.5||Top||1-2||Loss||-115||15 h 36 m||Show|
Two pretty good right handers face off on Thursday when the Giants meet the Padres in their series opener. The Giants’ Webb was roughed up for 5 runs, 3 earned, in his last outing, but was very sharp in his previous 4 starts giving up just 3 runs total.
His opponent, Joe Musgrove, has slipped from the very high “Cy Young contender” perch he has held for most of the season. His last three starts have not been as impressive, and it is the long ball that has been the culprit. He has given up 5 in his last three games, more than in his previous 11 starts.
The Giants have tumbled into ineptitude, losing 6 of 7, after barely rallying vs the D-backs on Wednesday night. The 2-8 Padres aren’t much better, also hitting very poorly. The two teams are hitting 26th and 27th respectively over their last 15 games. Both bullpens usually are close to the MLB standard, but are struggling mightily lately with ERAs approaching or at 6.00 in their last 10 games.
Thursday's total is very low, but neither starter has been at his best, and even though neither team is hitting well, both bullpens are struggling badly. I think there is a pretty good chance that one of these starters will not perform up to standard, and the relievers will drag this one over. Take the total to go over 6.5
|07-06-22||Angels v. Marlins UNDER 7.5||Top||5-2||Win||100||11 h 30 m||Show|
Ohtani is 3-0 in his last 3 starts, giving up 0 runs and striking out 30 batters. Talk about finding his form! He starts against a fair to middling offensive team in the Marlins, who ran out their ace in a 2-1 win on Wednesday. This could very easily be another low scoring affair, although Rogers, the Marlins starter, has been very uneven this year. More was expected of Rogers after a breakout year , but June was not kind to him, with just 21+ innings pitched, a 7.06 ERA, and some very hefty base on balls totals over 5 starts. There has been some improvement in his last couple of outings. Is he beginning to see the light?
The Angels don’t usually hit lefties well, but lately they haven’t hit much of anything. They added just a single in the runs-for column yesterday, bringing their total to just 5 runs in 4 games. Miami’s pen has been consistently good and mopped up well for Alcantara last night. The Angels’ bullpen has struggled, but Angels wins are rare , so expect the best available Angels relievers in this one. Ohtani may not need much support given the way he is pitching. I expect Rogers to show a little better and Ohtani to cruise through the Marlins. Take the Under.
|07-03-22||Royals v. Tigers UNDER 7.5||Top||7-4||Loss||-110||5 h 41 m||Show|
Both starters on Sunday have been struggling of late, but this has been a low-scoring series thus far (all Unders) and neither lineup is what you’d term “strong.”
Kansas City is averaging only three runs/game over its last six contests, which is even worse than usual. Their season average is 3.8 runs/game. Of course, that’s better than Detroit, who is last in all of baseball at 3.0 runs/game for the season. The Tigers have scored only 11 runs in the last four games.
The first two games of the series have been a 3-1 win for the Royals and 4-3 win for the Tigers. I think the low-scoring trend will continue.
Tarik Skubal had a couple of rough starts in June for Detroit. But the last two times he’s faced Kansas City, Skubal has not allowed a run while working 9.6 innings. The Under is 4-2-1 in his home starts.
Brady Singer for Kansas City has allowed three or fewer runs the last two times he faced the Tigers. By the way, it’s not just this series. All five times these teams have met this year, the Under has hit. The most runs scored in any of the five games was seven. Go with the Under again today.
|07-01-22||Red Sox v. Cubs OVER 8.5||Top||5-6||Win||100||5 h 21 m||Show|
Two of baseball’s most storied franchises meet this weekend at Wrigley Field. The Red Sox are doing much better than the Cubs in 2022, which is really not all that surprising. The visitors enter this three-game series at 43-33 and tied for the top Wild Card in the American League. Meanwhile, the Cubs are one of six teams that has a winning percentage below .400.
But I believe the best value on today’s matchup is on the Over. The reason being, I just don’t have much faith in either starter.
The Cubs’ Adrian Sampson has bounced back and forth between Triple A and the big league club. His career numbers at this level just aren’t that great and he should struggle vs. a team that’s top six in scoring on the road and hitting .291 over the past week.
Rich Hill is nothing more than an average starter for the Red Sox. He comes in with a 4.23 ERA. The thing about the Cubs is they have been putting runs on the board recently, scoring 6.4 per game over the last seven while batting .304!
\The Over is 4-0 in the Cubs' last four home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Over is also 4-0 the last four times the Red Sox have been off a game where they gave up five or more runs. They were 6-5 winners on Wednesday.
|06-28-22||A's v. Yankees UNDER 8||Top||1-2||Win||100||9 h 50 m||Show|
Oakland thought they had the Yankees beat on Monday as they led 5-3 going into the bottom of the seventh. Had they held on (spoiler alert: they did not), it would have been one of the biggest upsets of the entire MLB season.
The Yankees stormed back with six runs in the bottom of the seventh and that was all the scoring for the game. Expect Tuesday to be lower-scoring. While the A’s scored five runs last night and have totaled 19 in their last three games, they remain last in the league in team batting average, slugging and on base percentage. They’re second to last in runs, producing only 3.2 per game.
Montas should limit the damage the Yankees do, however. The Under is 10-4 in Montas starts so far. He tossed eight shutout innings in his most recent start and allowed just two hits.
Sears should have a solid start for the Yankees. His only previous start saw him turn in five shutout innings. The Yankees bullpen is of course really solid as well.
Here at Yankee Stadium, the Pinstripes are allowing an average of just 2.8 runs/game. Take the Under in this one.
|06-26-22||Red Sox v. Guardians UNDER 9.5||Top||8-3||Loss||-115||6 h 5 m||Show|
The Red Sox have 6 straight victories, and are 8-2 in their last 10 games. They are getting great hitting and very good starting pitching. Left-hander Hill has not been one of their best starters this year. He doesn’t pitch for length and he doesn’t shut anyone down, but at 42 years, he still gets the job done. He will likely give up a couple runs against the hard hitting Guardians.
The Guardians were hot until they met up with the Sox. They’ve lost a pair at home and will need a win from Civale to avoid the Sox sweep. Civale, a solid starter last year, has struggled mightily this season then went on the IL in May. He has just one start in June, and looked very good in a five inning 2 run, 7 strikeout effort against the Twins.
Considering these two teams’ hitting abilities and Civale’s ERA, the over would look like a good possibility, and today’s total is high, but there are a couple of contra-indicators here. The Guardians are poor against left handed pitching. Civale’s stuff looked good in his final start before injury and in his last one, and he has been a sound starter in the past. The Guardians are getting good relief pitching.
I favor the Under on this game. It is just too high a total in my opinion. Shop around before you buy!
|06-24-22||Mets v. Marlins UNDER 7.5||Top||5-3||Loss||-120||8 h 35 m||Show|
Off a sweep of the Rockies, the Marlins face the Mets for the second time in three series, this time at home. They were 1-2 in New York, with Alcantara, today’s starter, getting the only victory. He has been lights out this season, a true ace, pitching at least into the eighth in his last three starts, and giving up just 4 runs in 24+ innings.
The 6-4 Mets struggled vs Houston, losing a pair, and haven’t been quite as steady on offense lately. Their OPS has slipped to just .633 in recent days, and they have had a few very short appearances from their starters, putting some pressure on the bullpen. Taijuan Walker has been an exception. After some mixed results, be is on a bit of a roll, allowing just 2 runs over 12+ innings in his last two starts, striking out 19!
Both pitchers were successful in the last Mets/Marlins series. I am banking on similar results today. The total is relatively low today. I am wagering that it will go even lower. Take the Under.
|06-19-22||Marlins v. Mets UNDER 7||Top||6-2||Loss||-110||6 h 11 m||Show|
The Marlins are just 1-4 in their last 5 games, but they start the ace on Sunday to turn things around. Alcantara (6-2, 1.69 ERA) has been as impressive as anyone this season, pitching for length (23 + innings/L3 games), and holding a 0.76 ERA in June. He gives the Marlins a chance to win every outing, and the Marlins to date have responded well.
Bassitt starts for the Mets. After a month of poor to fair outings, Bassitt re-found his form in his last start, throwing an 8 inning shutout. Bassitt claims to have made the necessary changes and has had some great appearances this season. The Mets’ pen has been excellent lately. While Alcantara may not need much support, he won’t likely get it anyway. The Marlins’ pen has been beyond bad lately, but they do seem to save their best games for Alcantara’s starts.
The Marlins are well down the list in offense for the season, and are hitting particularly poorly, with a sub-.600 OPS in their last week.
I expect Alcantara to continue with his present form, limiting a good Mets’ offense for much of the game. I expect Bassitt to respond with another solid start as well. We haven’t seen an over in Alcantara’s last 5 starts. I don’t think we will seen one on Sunday. Take the Marlins and Mets to go under.
|06-15-22||Rays v. Yankees UNDER 7||Top||3-4||Push||0||7 h 23 m||Show|
The Yankees lead the tough AL East by a solid margin and knocked off the Rays in a tight game on Wednesday. It could be another pitcher’s duel with two of the best meeting on the mound. Rays’ lefty McClanahan (1.86 ERA) has been dominant this year, including holding the Yankees to just 1 run over 6 innings in May. His last outing was a 2 hit 8 inning shutout vs the Cardinals. He faces Nestor Cortes (1.96 ERA), also a lefty, and also having a fine season. Cortes is off his worst start of the season, a 4 runs in 4+ innings start that was most uncommon. Look for Cortes to bounce back today. Both teams have excellent bullpens, performing very well recently.
The Rays are not a powerhouse on offense this year or recently, with a .666 OPS in the last two weeks. Compare to the Yankees’ .282 BA and .910 OPS in the same time period. Things do even up vs. left-handed pitching somewhat. The Rays have been weak on the road this year.
It is hard to argue with the Yankees’ offense but if anyone can hold them down it will be McClanahan. Another low total seems likely today, and considering the respective bullpens’ prowess, the complete game total seems the best option. Take the Yankees and Rays to go under today.
|06-10-22||Diamondbacks v. Phillies OVER 8.5||Top||5-7||Win||100||8 h 23 m||Show|
The Phillies are on a tear at 7-0, and have roughed up some very good starters in that stretch. In addition to a potent offense, their bullpen has, for a change, been very effective with an ERA of 2.34 over their last 10 games. The Diamond-backs, light-hitting as usual, are just 2-6, with an extra poor stretch from their relievers (6.19 ERA/ L10 games).
The Phillies’ starter today, Kyle Gibson, has been hit hard in May and June. While he is better at home, opposing batters are hitting over .300 in the last month. Gallen starts for the Diamondbacks. With just one really poor start for the season, he has been very good on the road. After a stellar April, we’ve seen his earned runs total creep up, mainly due to the long ball. Gallen allowed 0 HR in his first five starts and 4 in his last 5.
I favor Gallen as a starter today, but the Phillies have been a tough out recently and the Diamondbacks’ pen is a shambles. Gibson is struggling, allowing 5 runs over just 3+ innings in his last start. All things considered, I am on the over today. The Phillies’ offense vs a poor bullpen could get ugly, and even the weak-hitting D-backs should have their chances against Gibson.
|06-01-22||White Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5||Top||3-7||Loss||-100||9 h 41 m||Show|
The Jays are on a roll, the White Sox, no so much, however they have Kopech (8 starts, 1.29 ERA) on the mound today, who has been nothing short of brilliant this year. Kopech spent most of 2021 as a reliever, but it is as a starter this year that he has really shone. He has given up just 6 runs in 8 starts, with opposing batters hitting just .103. The Jays haven’t faced Kopech as a starter. His last outing was a 7 innning shutout.
The Jays counter with Ryu, who has bounced back from a poor April and a stint on the IL. Ryu can be the master of the slow stuff, but when things go wrong, they go very wrong in a hurry. He has had 3 solid starts in a row now, giving up just 3 runs over 15 innings.
The White Sox’ bullpen has struggled lately with an ERA of 5.26. The Jays’ has been better, but not stellar, and their slumbering offense appears to be waking up in the last couple of weeks. The Sox are hitting well for average, but have been short on power for much of this season.
With the Jays’ first real look at Kopech and Ryu on a roll, I like the sounds of the total today. Take the Sox and Jays to go under.
|05-29-22||Pirates v. Padres UNDER 7||Top||2-4||Win||100||5 h 51 m||Show|
The Pirates face the home-team Padres today, and each team has a young and, so far, successful starter on the mound. Pirates’ right-hander Contreras has been up and down from Triple A a couple of times, but in between has pitched masterfully with just 1 run given up over 11 innings. His last outing was a five inning shutout. I doubt we can expect much more length than that today.
Padres’ lefty, Gore is the more tested of the two, with 7 starts and an ERA of 2.06. He gave up 3 runs over 5 innings once, but otherwise has been exceptional. As far as relief pitching goes, the Padres have a definite edge; the Pirates’ lair has struggled lately, where the Padres’ relievers have been razor sharp in their last ten games.
Pittsburgh can’t seem to hit a lick this year, dragging up the rear for the full season. They are particularly feeble vs left- handed pitching of late. Th Padres aren’t much better for power, earning just 3.3 runs per start to date.
Neither team has faced the opposing pitcher, usually an advantage to the pitcher. Both starters have looked very composed to date. While the Padres should be favored today, the lop-sided odds suggest a close look at the total. Offenses considered, I will take these two pitchers to continue their fine play. Take the Pirates and Padres to go under.
|05-27-22||Yankees v. Rays UNDER 7.5||Top||2-0||Win||100||8 h 11 m||Show|
The Rays lost at home to the Yankees on Thursday, and will look to lefty Jeffrey Springs (1.32 ERA) to turn things around. Springs will have a pretty good chance in doing so. A long reliever turned starter, he is another one of those fine young pitchers the Rays seem to find at will. He now has 3 starts under his belt, and his 2nd and last starts were 5 inning shutouts. While not completely stretched out, he appears to be the real deal, perhaps similar to Ranger Suarez of last year. While the Rays’ pen failed them last night they are generally a very good bullpen, so Springs’ length is not critical today.
The Yankees rely on Taillon (2.95 ERA) today. His worst start came just 2 appearances ago, giving up 3 runs over 5 innings, but in 7 other starts, it has been 2 runs or less. He gives up a fair number of hits, hut has limited hard contact to date. They Yankees generally have a very fine group of relievers, but are missing 3 key members and are struggling lately.
The Yankees could be missing a trio of big boppers today, and while their offense has been dominant this year, they are just as fallible vs quality pitching as anyone else. They have little experience or success vs Springs. All things considered, I expect a relatively low scoring affair this evening. Take the Yankees and Rays to go Under today.
|05-25-22||Rangers v. Angels OVER 8.5||Top||7-2||Win||100||10 h 15 m||Show|
The Rangers unexpectedly swept the Angels in their home series, but have struggled since, losing 5 of 6 games. The Angels have been streaky, recently winning 3 straight. Yound lefty Detmers starts for the Angels. Famous now for his no hitter, he has otherwise been pretty average, with relatively short starts and a 4.15 ERA. Other than the one start, he has consistently struggled after the third inning.
For Rangers starter Otto, it has been the reverse. One very bad outing (8 runs over 3.2 innings) has skewed an otherwise reasonable start. In his other 4 starts, he has given up 2 runs or less. With rare exceptions, neither pitcher has thrown for length this season, and both bullpens have struggled recently. The Angels’ pen has an ERA of over 5.00 in their last ten games, whilethe Rangers relievers’ ERA is over 4.00 in their last five games.
There is no contest on offense. The Angels are at the top of the heap in OPS with the Rangers bottom-feeders on offense for the season. I think it will be the Angels offense and both bullpens that decide this game. Look for plenty of runs late in the game, and take the OVER today.
|05-21-22||Reds v. Blue Jays UNDER 8||Top||1-3||Win||100||8 h 17 m||Show|
The Jays bats have been a big disappointment lately. Thought to possess a formidable offense this year, they are hitting just .215 vs right-handers, and have sunk to 27th in the league in OPS. To put this in perspective, the lowly Reds have climbed from near worst to 7th, with a .755 OPS in their last two weeks. The Jays are getting good results from starting pitching but have squandered some very fine outings. Manoah (1.71 ERA), who has arguably been their best starter was the victim of a poor effort from the offense plus questionable play in the field last time out. He has not given up more than 2 runs in 7 starts to date.
The Reds have also getting good starting pitching, including rookie Hunter Greene’s first quality start of his career. Greene has monster stuff but has not been able to harness it until his last start. The result was a 7+inning no hit shutout. Just about anything is possible from Greene on Saturday, but the way the Jays have been hitting, another fine outing is a possibility.
The Jays are a huge favorite against the Reds, an unwarranted favorite considering the two teams’ recent action. Friday’s game ended in a 2-1 final score. Greene is just the kind of pitcher the Jays have struggled with in the past. Take Saturday's total to go under.
|05-14-22||Padres v. Braves OVER 8||Top||5-6||Win||100||9 h 58 m||Show|
The Padres won big in their series opener vs the home-team Braves. The Braves are now under .500 at home. Very veteran Charlie Morton (5.65 ERA) starts for the Braves on Saturday. His last start was a five inning shutout, but he has struggled in his first five. He has been poor early in his games, allowing 12 of his 19 runs in the first two innings. The Padres have had some success with Morton in the past. Is Uncle Charlie back on form or was the last start a one-off?
Lefty Sean Manaea starts for the Padres. The year began well, but his last three starts have been very average. He has 38 strikeouts, but has also given up 4 home runs in 4 games. The fifth inning has killed him this year with his ERA nearly 12. for that inning. The Padres’ bullpen has been poor in their last 5 games win an ERA over 4.80. The Braves pen had been showing somewhat better but it was pounded by the Padres on Friday night.
The Padres are 11-5 on the road, and have seen the over on the road 7 out of 8 times. The Braves have also seen their share of overs lately. These two teams managed 17 runs on Friday. I don't expect both of Saturday's starters to fare well, and neither bullpen has been very dependable. I am wagering that Saturday's game will go over.
|05-13-22||Cubs v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5||Top||3-4||Loss||-115||14 h 17 m||Show|
Don’t look now but the Diamondbacks are 7-3 and working their way into semi-respectability. The Cubs are the reverse at 3-7 L10, getting short and poor outings from their starters. Friday’s starters are also going in different directions. Cubs’ lefty Smyly (3.04) threw shut-outs in his first two starts but has regressed since then. His starts have lasted just 4+ innings in his last two, and the long ball has been an issue. Right-handed starter Zack Davies has been quite the reverse. He had an ERA of 5.40 over 4 starts in April, but has come around in May with 2 shutout appearances lasting 11 innings.
Neither bullpen is anything special. The D-backs’ pen was absolutely shelled last time out, and is barely adequate otherwise. The only advantage is that Davies will likely pitch longer into the start.
While the starting pitching is the usual culprit, the Cubs’ relievers’ ERA is hovering around 4.00 and has been used a lot.
The Cubs would appear to have a considerable advantage on offense, but looking closer, they have been hitting very poorly vs right handed pitching, batting .187/10. The Cubs have also faced some of the best starters in the league lately, so could be due for a bounce-back. The Diamond-backs are hardly a powerhouse on offense, but are hitting 50 points better vs lefties over the last 10 games. I don’t see both of these starters faring well on Friday, and neither bullpen is of shut-down quality. I will be interested to see if the D-backs continue their success at home (4-2) and against left-handed pitching.Let us also see if the Cubs’ bats can return to form. I am wagering on the Cubs and Diamondbacks going over the total.
|05-05-22||Marlins v. Padres OVER 7||Top||1-2||Loss||-120||10 h 23 m||Show|
Miami was swept by the D-backs, and are up against a tougher opponent in the Padres. Lefty Jesus Luzardo (3.10) starts for the Marlins. Other than one poor start, he has been very strong, giving up just I HR and striking out 28. His mound opponent, Nick Martinez(4.12 ERA) hasn’t been quite as effective, with relatively short starts and some control issues.
The Marlins have the edge in relief pitching for the season; it was the starters who let them down vs the Diamondbacks. The Padres’ bullpen has a collective ERA over 4, and has bulged to 4.80 in their last 5 games.
Surprisingly, the Marlins also have an edge in offense at the moment, and hit better against right-handers. The Padres are hitting poorly for average and middle of the pack for power, but for the season have hit left-handers better.
It is tough to pick a favorite in this game, so I am looking to the total today. Martinez’s control issues are a concern as is the Padres’ bullpen. The total is low for this match-up, too low for my liking. Take the Marlins and Padres to go over.
|05-05-22||Nationals v. Rockies OVER 10.5||Top||7-9||Win||100||8 h 9 m||Show|
It is a long time since Aaron Sanchez pitched successfully. He finished last season poorly and has just 2 very average starts this year. He likely won’t last long and may not prosper in Coors Field.
Rockies starter Senzatela, has pitched well in the rarefied airs of Colorado. In 4 starts to date, he had just one “rocky” one and that was in Detroit. He was very good vs the Reds last start.
Both teams are top 5 in batting and have hit the ball particularly hard lately. The Nationals have scored 38 runs in their last 4 games and the Rockies have had a pair of 10 run efforts in their last five.
Neither of these bullpens can hold a lead. The Rockies are last in bullpen stats and the Nationals aren’t far behind. The total is high, but I am all over the OVER on Thursday
|04-26-22||Orioles v. Yankees UNDER 8||Top||8-12||Loss||-125||8 h 4 m||Show|
The O’s face the Yankees in the confines of Yankee Stadium on Tuesday. The Orioles took their home series from the Yankees on the backs of their pitchers. Today’s starter Jordan Lyles held NY to just 1 run over 5 innings in his second start. He was roughed up in his first outing of the year, but his last two have been excellent. The O’s are also getting very good results from their bullpen, with a collective ERA of just 2.75. Of note, the Orioles have 3 shutouts to date.
Severino starts for NY. After 2 lost seasons due to injury, Severino appears healthy and the stats reflect this. In his 2nd and 3rd start, he lasted 10 innings total, allowing just a single run. The Yankees’ bullpen has been most impressive, with a very sharp ERA of 2.44, good for 4th in the league.
While the Yankees are not hitting for average (.235 ERA), their power figures are acceptable, although more is expected from Yankees’ bats. They have been a solid 7-3 at home this year. The Orioles are poor on the road so far (3-7) and also poor vs right-handed pitching (3-6). Their offense, as expected, is struggling in a big way, hitting just .211, with a severe power outage, just 44 runs, and 6 home runs to date.
These are two fine starters, supported by strong relievers. The Orioles’ offense is out and out poor, and the Yankees’ bats have yet to fully come around. The total is on the high side. I am a big fan of the under today
|04-23-22||Blue Jays v. Astros UNDER 8.5||Top||3-2||Win||100||6 h 49 m||Show|
The Blue Jays meet the Astros for the second game of the series in Houston. Astros starter Urquidy was shelled the first time out, but was much more as expected in his second. He will have to pitch very well on Saturday to match the Jays’ starter Manoah, who has been dominant in his first two starts, pitching for length early in the season.
Both teams have at least 1 big bat down. The Astros hitters have not found their form yet. Their team batting average is sub.200, and the runs just aren’t coming. The Jays have the edge on offense at the moment, but if he is on form, Urquidy is tough to take advantage of. The Astros have the better bullpen, but the Jays’ closer has won 8 straight.
The total for this game is high, but it doesn’t reflect the quality of the starters or relievers. The Astros in particular have not lived up to their reputation on offense to date. Take this game to go Under.
|04-19-22||Giants v. Mets UNDER 7||Top||4-5||Loss||-100||4 h 43 m||Show|
The 7-2 Giants aren’t big on giving up runs, allowing just 7 in their last five games. Alex Cobb is back for his second start, and likely won’t change the “low runs allowed” pattern, if his first start was anything to go by.
The road Giants take on the Mets, another team off to a fine start. One reason the Mets are flourishing is the fine start from Tylor Megill, who did not give up a run in his first two starts. He was equally fine in the spring.
Here is a fine opportunity for early total. The Mets are right behind the Giants for fewest runs against. Both pitchers are have been tough on the opposition and will likely go at least 5 innings. Take the under.
|04-14-22||Mariners v. White Sox UNDER 9.5||Top||5-1||Win||100||13 h 27 m||Show|
Seattle’s young starter Logan Gilbert, finished 2021 strongly and was terrific in his first start of this season. The question is, will Seattle give him any run support? The Mariner bats have been slow to start this year.
The Mariners are up against the White Sox’ inexperienced pitcher Lambert. He started 3 games last year to mixed results, and didn’t pitch much this spring. The White Sox have started the season well, and their offense has been solid, but I think they’ll struggle vs. Gilbert. Between Seattle’s starter and Seattle’s bat, don’t look for a high-scoring game. I’m wagering on the Under
|04-08-22||Astros v. Angels UNDER 9.5||Top||13-6||Loss||-110||20 h 8 m||Show|
Houston has been on a roll this spring, and the success has been on the backs of its pitching staff. The Astros’ offense has, surprisingly, not shown up this spring or, for that matter, in Game 1. Odorizzi has pitched mainly on the sidelines, but pitched well in his one appearance against the Mets. He has been moved up in rotation due to an early injury to McCullers.
The Angels have also had a good spring, showing offense and reasonable pitching. Detmers is a surprise starter in game 2, but has great potential and has had a very good spring. I am excited about his stuff and think he will show well against the Astros.
The Astros offense will break out sooner or later, but I am banking on it not happening on Friday. The total is relatively high; higher than I think is warranted in this match-up. Take this game to go under the total.
|04-08-22||White Sox v. Tigers OVER 8||Top||4-5||Win||100||12 h 10 m||Show|
The Tigers face the White Sox in their home opener, a team against which Detroit had some success in 2021, when they split their match-ups. Both teams have been just under .500 in spring training. The Tigers could be classed as up and coming this year. Rodriguez starts for Detroit. The lefty has been a consistent performer in his career and has pitched 17 innings this spring with a reasonable ERA. The Tigers’ pitching staff has shown well so far, although their offense has yet to establish itself.
Much more is expected of the White Sox for 2022. Their offense has very good so far, with overall pitching lagging behind. Giolito starts on Friday, and he has had a very good spring. He faced the Tigers twice last year, splitting his appearances with both games going over the total.
It would be easy to count the Tigers out against the Sox, but with the Sox' strong batting and weak relief pitching in Spring, I more inclined to take a look at the total. A reasonably low number is available, and with neither starter likely to go long, the bullpens will have some say. Take this game to go over.
|04-07-22||Pirates v. Cardinals OVER 8||Top||0-9||Win||100||9 h 60 m||Show|
The “ever-young” Adam Wainwright is back as the starter in the Cardinals’ home opener. Will this be his final season? He was terrific last year, and other than a couple of rough innings, looked on form in Spring. The Cards had a great run last year and have started spring training strongly. This is very much a veteran team that knows how to win.
The Pirates enter the season dead last in the MLB power rankings. They are a young team with some interesting talent who may find their way into the bigs at some point in the season, but don’t look for them to make many waves right off the start. Brubaker is a surprise starter for the Pirates. He struggled badly last year with a very sizable ERA. The Pirates’ pitching staff has not shown well in spring training.
Today’s total is reasonably low. I expect the home favorite Cardinals to take advantage of an unsettled Pirates team with a questionable starter. A pitching gem is highly unlikely. Wager on the over in this match-up.
|11-02-21||Braves v. Astros OVER 8.5||Top||7-0||Loss||-120||14 h 35 m||Show|
Braves (Fried, 1-2, 5.40) vs. Astros (1-2, 7.62)
As a handicapper it is hard to have faith in either starter in Game 6. Rookie Luis Garcia has been all over the map; two short poor outings, followed by a 5+ inning gem, followed by a wild effort where he struck out six, walked four, but only allowed 3 hits and a run. To top it off, he is pitching on only three days rest. Like any starter in the post season, he will be on a very short leash. The Astros’ pen has been excellent right through the series, has a 1.50 ERA, while used for over 4 innings per game. And with the immediate threat of elimination, anyone and everyone is available in relief.
I want to believe in Fried on Tuesday. I won a ton of games with him in the regular season, but he has not impressed in the post season. Much is made of soft hits, and his performance after the second inning of his last start, but he allowed 6 runs in that start, and 5 in the previous start. He is at least pitching on 6 days rest.
The Braves bullpen, ridden mercilessly through the postseason, over-achieved until game five when the Astros bats finally woke up. It may be a case of overexposure, and does not bode well for Game 6. The same could hold true for the Astros pen. Game 6 may be the tipping point for them. There are very hot hitters on both sides.
I don’t think we can expect a low-scoring game; either one of these starters could fail, and as mentioned the relief could also falter. I think the bats will rule on Tuesday. Take game 6 to go over.
|10-26-21||Braves v. Astros OVER 8||6-2||Push||0||12 h 24 m||Show|
Braves (Morton, 0-1, 3.77) vs. Astros (Valdez, 1-0, 4.20)
The Braves, the national league’s unexpected champs, start Charlie Morton against the powerhouse Astros. Morton has started three games in the postseason, and while he hasn’t been overpowering, he has kept the score down. He is well rested and a very experienced post-season starter, and if he is on his game, capable of pitching for length. His opponent is Framber Valdez, who will be remembered for his 8 inning 3 hit, 1 ER outing that broke the backs of the Red Sox. But let’s not forget the previous 2 post season starts that were not pretty, allowing 6 runs over 7+ innings. So, which Valdez shows up on Tuesday? If Valdez can get out of the second inning he also could go pitch late into the game.
The Astros’ bullpen has much better than usual with an ERA of 2.63/L7, although it has been relied upon heavily. The Braves bullpen has not been as sharp, although their starters fared much better than the Astros starters to date. Both bullpens should be adequately rested.
The Braves are a good road team, and solid vs lefties, but were very poor in interleague games this year. The Astros were dominant at home and vs. right-handers in the regular season. Looking at the batting stats for the postseason, there are a whole lot of Astros high in the list. The Braves are no slouches for offense and have some hot hitters right now. I like the total on Tuesday, in particular the early one. I can't see the offenses being completely shutdown early. Take the total to go over in the first five innings.
|10-22-21||Red Sox v. Astros OVER 9||0-5||Loss||-100||10 h 8 m||Show|
Red Sox (Eovaldi, 2-0) vs Astros (Garcia, 0-1)
The Red Sox face elimination and have Eovaldi, their only successful starter, on the mound. Eovaldi has already started three games in the postseason, winning two of them. He was not quite as dominant in the start vs. the Astros, and was then called upon to pitch a very unwise bullpen 2/3 of an inning and was shelled for 4 ER. How this will impact on his start on Friday remains to be seen, but he will be pitching on 3 days rest twice.
Luis Garcia has started 2 games, lasted 3 2/3 innings and has an ERA well into the 20’s. He was also roughed up in his last regular season start. He has a history of inflated ERA in the first innings, but is a much better pitcher at home. The Astros are no doubt hoping for a turnaround similar to Valdez’s in the previous game, but it is less likely.
Valdez’s stellar start gave the Astros pen a solid day of rest, while the Red Sox used five relievers. The Red Sox pen has a collective ERA of 6.25 in their last 7 games, and has been relied on for over 4 innings of relief per game. The Astros bullpen is better at 4.08 ERA/7 games.
Both teams obviously have the ability to score runs in a hurry. The Red Sox, in the regular season, were not a terrific road team. Both teams hit right-handers very well.
I am doubtful of Garcia’s success today and can’t see Eovaldi lasting, Take the Sox/Astros total today to go over.
|10-20-21||Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9.5||9-1||Win||100||7 h 34 m||Show|
Astros (Valdez) vs. Red Sox (Sale)
Can we expect a return to normalcy in Game 5? If this game goes as others in the series have then expect another high scoring affair. Both pitchers are starting on five days’ rest and both have not thrown a lot of innings in the post season. Both are left-handers which should statistically be an advantage. Sale looked better in his second post season start, but was pulled after just 2+ innings. He has struggled vs. right-handers recently, which plays to the Astros’ strength. Valdez was roughed up in both his postseason starts, lasting just a total of 7 innings.
The Astros’ bullpen has been, surprisingly, somewhat better than average. Most of the damage the Red Sox have done has been against starters. The Boston pen is struggling, with an ERA of 4.75 and has been used heavily, more than 5 innings a game on average.
The total has been over in 12 0f 14 of these two teams’ games. Will today be any different? Possibly in the first five innings, but neither of these starters are destined to pitch long, and the offenses are just too potent for a low total. Take this game to go over.
|10-19-21||Braves v. Dodgers OVER 7.5||5-6||Win||106||5 h 2 m||Show|
Braves (Morton, 0-1, 3.34) vs. Dodgers (Buehler, 0-1, 3.38)
Down an unexpected 0-2, today is an absolute must win for the Dodgers. Buehler is back on the mound, with some extra day’s rest. He struggled somewhat in his first post-season start but was better against the Giants in his 2nd short outing. Buehler and Morton met in late August, with Buehler slightly the better pitcher.
Morton finished the regular season strongly allowing 3 runs over 15+ innings in his last three starts. He has not been quite as sharp in the post-season, allowing 4 runs over 9 innings. He too is well rested.
The Braves bullpen has been nothing short of exceptional in this series, which might have come as a surprise to many. The Dodgers pen has been as expected, although they have coughed up a couple of clutch Atlanta runs.
I hate to say it, but the Dodgers have been unlucky in this series. Now back at home where they have been almost unbeatable down the stretch, they are a big favorite to win today. The totals are predictably low. I am looking for the Dodgers’ bats to wake up today, and I believe it will come at the expense of Morton and the Atlanta relievers. Take the total to go over in the first five innings.
|10-18-21||Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9||3-12||Win||100||12 h 28 m||Show|
Astros (Urquidy) vs Red Sox (Rodriguez, 0-1)
Will the bats continue to reign in the Astros’ and Red Sox’ game 3? It is Urquidy and Rodriguez on the mound on Monday. Urquidy hasn’t pitched in over two weeks, and didn’t finish the regular season strongly. He hasn’t been quite the same pitcher since shoulder trouble in July and August. He has pitched well in previous post seasons, and held the Red Sox to only 1 run over 6 innings in his only start against them.
Rodriguez improved as the season progressed, finishing the season with an ERA of just over three in his last 7 games. His 2 appearances against the Rays were poor (2 ER over 1.2 innings) then better (2 ER over 5 innings). Houston knocked him around twice in quick succession early in the season. He pitches much better away from Fenway.
The offenses are 1 + 2 in team batting in the post season and the three hottest hitters are all Red Sox. The bullpens have been average in this series; it is mainly the starters who have been knocked around. The Red Sox are very strong vs right-handed starters, the Astros less so vs. lefties.
These are two very good offenses and two starters with question marks beside them. I like the total early. Take this game to go over in the first five innings.
|10-17-21||Dodgers v. Braves UNDER 7.5||Top||4-5||Loss||-113||8 h 5 m||Show|
Dodgers (Scherzer, 0-1, 1.46 ERA) vs Braves (Anderson, 1-0, 0.00 ERA)
The Dodgers’ ace Max Scherzer has already rung up 2 starts and a relief appearance, and we are just into the Divisional finals. Start #3 has him paired up against Ian Anderson who continues his hot run as a starter in the post season. He is 3-0 with an ERA of 0.76 in his career, and pitched five scoreless innings against the Brewers. His regular season was solid and he is a very good home starter.
The Dodgers had a bullpen day and a loss yesterday, used eight pitchers, and will need some innings out of Scherzer. Scherzer shut out the Braves over 6 innings in September. If there is a cloud on the horizon, it is his poor final two starts in the regular season. After 3 outings so close together, fatigue could become an issue.
The Dodgers got some hits against Fried but couldn’t do much damage. The Braves were very productive considering their number of hits. The long ball played a role again. The Braves pen which has been very good, held the Dodgers scoreless over 3 innings and will be better rested.
Two questions come to mind. Can Scherzer pitch an effective start with little rest? Can Anderson handle a potent Dodgers offense as he did with the poor-hitting Brewers? Anderson struggled against the Dodgers back in June, allowing 4 runs in 4+ innings.
This is a must win for the Dodgers, and they will be loaded for bear. I think that they will get to the Braves’ pitchers, if not against Anderson, then when facing the bullpen. I’m not convinced that Scherzer will go long or be completely overpowering today. Take the Braves/Dodgers total to go under.
|10-16-21||Dodgers v. Braves UNDER 8||2-3||Win||100||5 h 6 m||Show|
Dodgers (Knebel 0-0, ) vs. Braves (Fried, 1-0, 0.00)
Game 1 in the NL championship series matches Max Fried vs. all comers. Fried has shone this year, especially late in the season and in his magnificent start vs. the Brewers. If anyone can pitch for length vs. the Dodgers, it is he. Knebel is the named starter for the Dodgers, but it will likely be a bullpen game today. Knebel is not unfamiliar with the opener role, and was successful in it in the Dodgers’ last series. He has been highly effective as an opener/reliever this season.
A bullpen day might be alarming for any team but the Dodgers. Relievers collectively have had an ERA of 1.86 in their last 7 games. The Braves pen has also been effective, however they were facing a weak-hitting Brewers team rather than the Giants.
The Dodgers had their moment of offense vs the Giants. The Braves were stymied for the most part by the Brewers’ fine starters, but can score some runs, especially with the long ball.
I like the total in this game, and the best odds are for the first half. The Dodgers have enough options to prevent the game from getting out of hand, and Fried is as good a bet for a low total as there is. Take this game to go under in the first five.
|10-15-21||Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8.5||4-5||Win||100||8 h 21 m||Show|
Red Sox (Sale) vs Astros (Valdes)
If you look at the stats from the last series, the Sox/Astros matchup will likely be decided by the bats. The Red Sox offense is red hot, and the two teams are 1-2 in the post season in offense. Not so for the pitchers; both teams’ ERAs are over 4.
Sox starter Chris Sale struggled in his first postseason start, lasting only 1 inning, and in his previous regular season start. For such a strong starter, he has been historically poor in post season play. The talk is that “some mechanics adjustments have been made”, but it is hard to know what to expect from Sale today.
Valdes didn’t pitch well in his PS start either, nor his previous regular season start, but is very good at home and in previous post season action.
The Astros are a very good home team, and good vs left-handed pitching. Their relievers struggled in the White Sox series. The Red Sox are not the best road team, are poor as a road underdog and average vs. lefties. That said, it is the post season, and one wonders about the value of stats at the moment.
After their last outings, these two starters are wildcards today. The Astros are a favorite, and totals are about average. The Astros dominated the Red Sox this year in regular season play. I am banking on offense and Sale's inability to bounce back today. Take the over in the first five innings.
|10-14-21||Dodgers v. Giants OVER 7||2-1||Loss||-100||14 h 42 m||Show|
Dodgers (Urias) vs Giants (Webb)
Julio Urias, a 20 game winner is 1-0 for the postseason, allowing just 1 run over 5 innings.. He had a very strong finish to the regular season with a 4-0 record and an ERA of 2.20 in September. He twice faced the Giants in July, allowing 2 runs total over 12+ innings. Urias is tried and tested in postseason play.
For the Giants, Logan Webb allowed no runs over 7.2 innings in the most dominant start of this series. This will certainly be the 24 year old’s biggest game. The Giants have not lost against the Dodgers with Webb on the mound. The question is can Webb repeat. He will likely need to, as the Dodgers have had good success against the Giants’ relievers. Plan B, should Webb falter, would be Gausman, who fared poorly in his start.
Everyone and anyone will be available in relief, so bull pen stats are useless in a game like this one. The Giants are historically good against lefties, but this is not the case in recent weeks. There is no doubt that the Dodgers have outhit the Giants by a considerable margin in this series.
A very low total is available for the first half of the game. Lightning or Webb could strike twice, but the second time around might not go quite so smoothly for these two starters. Take the over in the first five innings.
|10-12-21||Astros v. White Sox UNDER 8.5||Top||10-1||Loss||-100||8 h 6 m||Show|
Astros (McCullers JR.) vs White Sox (Rodon)
With the season in the balance, the White Sox look to Carlos Rodon for the equalizer. Rodon has been the White Sox’ best pitcher this year, he just hasn’t been able to pitch much in August and September. His quality has not suffered. In 28 total innings over the two months, he had an ERA of under 2.00. In all likelihood, he will not pitch more than 5 innings, and has little post season history.
Lance McCullers Jr. shut out the White Sox over 6+ innings. This makes 3 wins in a row for McCullers over the Sox this year. He has had 4 days rest and was well-rested coming into the postseason. Plan B is Urquidy should Junior falter. McCullers allows a lot of ground balls, so Houston’s superlative infield defense could play a large factor on Tuesday.
Both sides have shown some offensive muscle in this series, but I am not expecting it early in game 4.
The total is set slightly higher due to the end results in the last two games. I like the total early, with Rodon and McCullers likely still in the game. Take the under in the first five innings on Tuesday.
|10-11-21||Brewers v. Braves OVER 8||0-3||Loss||-105||7 h 33 m||Show|
Milwaukee (Peralta, 10-5, 2.85) vs Atlanta (I. Anderson, 9-5, 3.58)
It has been a low scoring series so far and is likely to continue. We are down to the #3 starters, so there maybe more runs than can be counted on the fingers of one hand on Monday. The Brewers’ Freddie Peralta was an All-star this year and like many All-star pitchers, his second half has not been as successful. Peralta was out with a shoulder injury, and while he has built himself up to good length in his starts, he has really only had 2 fine quality starts since returning. He is 1-2 with an ERA of 4.70 in September. He does pitch well on the road and did shut out the Braves in May. He pitched well in last year’s post season but did not start a game.
Ian Anderson was memorable in last year’s post season, starting 4 games and finishing with a 0.96 ERA. His numbers this year certainly do not match that.He has had a solid season and is 3-0, but with an ERA of 4.39 in September. These starters will be on a very short hook should things go sideways. Atlanta’s bullpen has been very good, and Milwaukee could bring in either of their reserve starters, as they did in game 1.
Neither team is hitting over .200 average, but I still see potential in the Braves’ bats. The Brewers have been in an offensive funk for some time; perhaps we will see a break out this game. Monday’s totals are very low considering these two starters’ September performances. I am wagering on some runs to be scored in the first half. Take the total to go over in the first five innings.
|10-10-21||Astros v. White Sox OVER 8.5||6-12||Win||100||9 h 44 m||Show|
Astros (Garcia, 11-8, 3.00) vs White Sox (Cease, 13-7, 3.91)
The White Sox are 0-4 in recent play-off games, but the return to GR Field offers some relief. The White Sox have a very good home record this year. Dylan Cease is on the firing line today. His last three starts were very good, but he has not fared especially well against the Astros this year. He is a much better pitcher at home, and is well-rested.
Astros rookie Luis Garcia was very good against the White Sox when he last faced them. He had a touch of playoff experience last year, and has been solid of late. He is not as strong a pitcher on the road. He too is well rested.
The White Sox’ bullpen struggled late in the season, and did not impress on Friday night. The Astros bullpen has been better of late and solid in the first two postseason games.
The White Sox ended the season hitting very well, but that has not translated to the play-offs so far. The Astros have an over .300 batting avg in the first two games. They are a good road team but are only 1-4 in Chicago this year.
It is really a toss up between the two pitchers today. Much is made of the White Sox’ abilities at home and Houston is now a slight underdog. I look for the two offenses to have some success today; the White Sox’ bats to wake up and the Astros to continue at their torrid pace. Take this game to go over the total.
|10-09-21||Braves v. Brewers UNDER 7.5||3-0||Win||100||10 h 25 m||Show|
Braves (Fried, 14-7, 3.04) vs Brewers (Woodruff, 9-10, 2.56)
If the first game was anything to go by, runs will be in short supply in this series. It would be hard to see anything different occurring in the 2nd game. Max Fried is on the mound for Atlanta. No one has been better than Fried lately. He is 3-0 with an ERA of 1.90 in his last 7 starts, and has given up only 1 run in 23 innings in his last three starts. He is a leftie, and Milwaukee is only 20-19 against the left this season.
Woodruff has been very sharp this season, but somewhat less so in September. He should be well rested, starting only 4 games in September and only pitching 4 innings in his last start.
Woodruff has had good success at home this season.
I still like the Braves for offense, but with such strong starters, the under looks very appealing. Milwaukee just hasn’t produced of late. The Braves need a win from one of their 2 key pitchers, so they will be all in on Saturday. Any runs scored will likely come late. As in Thursday’s game, take the total to go under in the first five innings.
|10-08-21||Dodgers v. Giants OVER 7||0-4||Loss||-120||10 h 27 m||Show|
Dodgers (Webb, 11-3, 3.03) vs Giants (Buehler, 3-1, 2.47)
Two of the very best teams face off in probably the most talked about series of the post season. The Dodgers, off their walk-off Wild Card victory, will be buoyed up. The Giants have not been able to let their foot off the gas down the stretch either. Both teams have great recent records.
Walker Buehler starts for the Dodgers. He has not been as sharp as he can be, with a very pedestrian record in September of 2-2, 5.40 ERA in 5 starts. His last two starts showed a return to form. He bombed against SF in September allowing 6 runs over 3 innings, and is not quite as effective on the road. He has a fine history in post season play.
Logan Webb starts for the Giants. While Webb has had a banner year, he has no post-season history and 3 of his last 5 starts have not been of good quality.
The Giants had a significant edge in games between the two rivals this year. The Dodgers offense is peaking, although the loss of Muncey hurts. While both bullpens are very strong, the Giants has been lights out in recent games.
This is a tough call for the a winner. I am looking at the total, especially early. These are two very fine starters, but neither pitcher has been at peak performance in recent starts. While all starters are on a short leash in the post season, the total is set low. Take the total to go over in the first five innings
|10-08-21||Braves v. Brewers UNDER 7||1-2||Win||100||9 h 33 m||Show|
Braves (Morton, 14-6, 3.34) vs Brewers (Burns, 11-5, 2.43)
Milwaukee clinched a playoff spot weeks ago, and hasn’t impressed since, winning only 4 of their last 15 games. If nothing else they will be well rested. The Brewers have a trio of formidable young starters. Corbin Burns is the first one up. He is 2-0 in September with a 2.42 ERA in 4 starts. Burns is slightly worse starting at home. Burns is capable of and may have to pitch for length. The Brewers have a very good closer but the rest of their bullpen has been pitching to a very poor ERA 0f 6.75 in their last 7 games.
Equally concerning is the Brewers’ serious lack of offense. Never a powerhouse, they have been in the very bottom of the league in runs scored and average in the last weeks.
The Braves peaked at the right time. Their offense has come around, and they are 8-2 in their last 10 games. They are a good road team. Veteran Charlie Morton is on the mound. He has a 2.43 ERA in his last 7 starts, and has allowed only 3 runs in the last 15+ innings. The Braves’ bullpen has been very sharp with an ERA of 2.81 in their last 7 games.
Burns is good enough to control a game on his own, but Charlie Morton has been equally effective of late. The total is low and rightly so. I still think it may be good value. Take the total to go under in the first five innings.
|10-06-21||Cardinals v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5||1-3||Win||100||14 h 36 m||Show|
Cards (Wainwright) vs Dodgers (Scherzer)
Two very fine pitchers, both of a certain age. Scherzer overpowered the Cards in September, with 6 innings of 0 ER, 13 strikeout ball. He has been almost unhittable since joining the Dodgers, with two exceptions; he has allowed a run an inning, 10 total, in his last two starts.
Adam Wainwright, post 40, has had an exemplary season. He is now a finesse and edges kind of guy, and has been very consistent. He too had an off game is his last three. He beat the Dodgers in September, and held them to one run in his first five innings. He was 8-2 on the road this year.
What are we to make of Scherzer’s last two starts, and Wainwright’s wobble? Both pitchers are consummate professionals. It is unlikely that there will be a threepeat in Scherzer’s case. That said, the Dodgers and Cards have very good and deep bullpens should either struggle. In a sudden-death game, no one is immune from the hook, as we saw with Cole and the Yankees.
I am looking at the total in the first half, and banking on both starters to bounce back to regular form. Take this game to go under in the first five innings.
|10-05-21||Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 8||2-6||Push||0||13 h 34 m||Show|
Yankees (Cole, 16-8, 3.23) vs Red Sox (Eovaldi, 11-9, 3.75)
When the game is for all the marbles, you want your ace on the mound. The trouble is Gerrit Cole is not looking like an ace at the moment, and it will be a testament to his abilities if he pitches well on Tuesday. In his last three games, he has given up 15 runs in 17+ innings and he has not been successful at all in Fenway Park. The Yankees do have a very good set of relievers if Cole should falter.
It is the end of the season and starters are worn down. Eovaldi was pushed around by the Yankees, lasting just 2+ innings two starts ago, was average in the start before that, but was sharp his last time out with 6 innings or shutout ball. The Red Sox’ bullpen is sub par at the moment, but for this game, every pitcher will be available. This is of more benefit to the Red Sox than the Yankees.
The Yankees have some key injuries. Three infielders are out, including DJ Lemahieu. They have hit for low average all season, particularly against the right. Other than home-runs, the Red Sox have significantly out-hit the Yankees this season. However a hot Judge and Stanton can balance out the advantage in a hurry.
I am wagering on the total in the first half. I don’t think we can expect a quality start from both of these starters, and both teams can score some big runs in a hurry. Take the total to go over in the first 5 innings.
|10-01-21||Angels v. Mariners OVER 7.5||2-1||Loss||-111||11 h 15 m||Show|
Angels (L. Suarez, 7-8, 3.86) vs Mariners (Gonzales, 10-5, 4.00)
Here is a game that really matters. The surprising Mariners can play their way into a wild card spot if they continue their stellar play this weekend. Gonzales has been sharp in his last three starts. Jose Suarez gave up 4 in 5 to the Mariners previously, but has otherwise been solid. Both pitchers will want to go out on a positive note.
The odds for the early total vary widely today. Both teams do well against lefties and both teams can score some runs. Mariners will be intent on winning, and the Angels, well who doesn’t want to be a spoiler. Take the total in the first 5 to go over 3 ½. Better jump on this one.
|10-01-21||Phillies v. Marlins UNDER 7.5||5-0||Win||100||10 h 32 m||Show|
Phillies (R. Suarez) vs. Marlins (Alcantara, 9-14, 3.09)
Pity Sandy Alcantara. He has thrown over 200 innings, with nearly a strike-out an inning, and a WHIP of 1.07 and he ends up 9-14 for the season. Such are your fortunes when you play for the lightest hitting team in the league. He is 1-2 with an ERA of 2.39 in September, and pitches well at home but seldom wins.
The Phillies are officially done for the season. It is hard to know how they will react, but I expect Ranger Suarez to continue to come out with guns a’blazing. Suarez has been sensational since switching to starting. All he did was throw a 9 inning shut-out in his last start.
The Phillies are a better hitting team but will their heart be in it on Saturday? Their bullpen has been very poor of late, probably a good reason why they are not moving on.
I like the early total today. I have won with Suarez for many games now, and believe that Alcantara will want to finish the season strongly. Take the total to go under in the first five innings.
|09-30-21||Tigers v. Twins UNDER 8.5||10-7||Loss||-103||11 h 27 m||Show|
Tigers (Skubal,8-12, 4.13) vs Twins (Ryan, 2-1, 2.45)
Neither team is going anywhere, but the pitching matchup is interesting. Skubal has thrown a lot of innings for a young starter, and his innings count seems to have been been limited. It seems a successful tactic as he is 2.07 ERA in September but pitching only 3 or 4 innings a start. He has struggled on the road this year. The Tigers’ bullpen has been surprisingly good lately, so Skubal’s short outings may not be an issue.
Joe Ryan is only a few games into his career as a starter, but he has impressed. In his last three starts he has given up only 3 runs in 17 innings pitched and has a very lowwhip of 0.59. Detroit has not yet faced Ryan. The Twins bullpen has also been very good in their last 7 games.
Neither team has been much for offense of late. Detroit has lost 2 straight against the Tigers so that might inspire them. I am wagering that not a lot of runs will be scored, especially early. Take the total to go under in the first five innings.
|09-28-21||Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 8||4-6||Win||100||10 h 22 m||Show|
Diamondbacks (Weaver, 3-6, 4.38) vs Giants (Webb, 10-3, 3.04)
As great a season as the Giants have had, they still haven’t clinched first in their division so they will be up for this game.. Meanwhile, the D-backs are dreaming of ‘22 and tee-times. Luke Weaver starts for Arizona. He is 1-3 with an ERA of 4.15 in September and just 4 starts back from a significant IL stay. He has been poor on the road with a 7.94 ERA this year. Logan Webb has had a good year, but has struggled in 2 of his last 3 starts, allowing 11 runs in his last 3 games. Fatigued, possibly.
Both bullpens are effective of late, perhaps surprising for the D-backs, but nothing new for the Giants.
The offenses couldn’t be more different. San Francisco, 3rd in the league, has close to double the run output in the last 3 weeks. The Diamondbacks road stats are woeful. The Giants, at home after a day off, are a heavy favorite.
I am wagering on the total today. Weaver’s road record and the Giants offense is a recipe for runs. Webb has given up some runs as well in his last starts. Take today’s total to go over in the first five innings.
|09-28-21||Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 7||2-6||Win||100||12 h 45 m||Show|
Brewers (Woodruff, 9-10, 2.52) vs Cardinals (Wainwright, 16-7, 3.05)
This is a fascinating call. The most overachieving team in the league versus the most underachieving division leader face off for the second series in 2 weeks. The Brewers have Woodruff on the mound. In his last start, he pitched 6 innings of 1 run ball against the Cardinals. In his previous two starts, he was not quite as sharp and has an ERA of 4.00 in September. He is slightly worse for the season at home. He faces Adam Wainwright, off his worst start in months, but who has been nothing less than remarkable this season. Wainwright is 8-5 with an ERA of 2.72 at home.
The Brewers are in the dumpster as far as offense over the last few weeks. They presently sit 26th in the league. They did break out slightly vs the Mets, but there must be real concerns for the Milwaukee bats at this point in the season. The Cardinals are a surprising first in the league in offense, along with their terrific starting pitching and a shut-down bullpen with an ERA of 2.86 in their last 7 games. The Brewers’ pen has been worse than usual at 4.44ERA.
Both pitchers, and especially Wainwright have pitched a ton of innings this year, and we might be seeing some slight signs of fatigue in their latest starts. The total is very low, perhaps too low. Considering the Cards hot bats, and Milwaukee’s sub par bullpen, I’m taking this game to go over the total. Enjoy the ballgame!
|09-25-21||Braves v. Padres OVER 8.5||10-8||Win||100||8 h 49 m||Show|
Atlanta (Ynoa, 4-5, 3.43) vs San Diego (Velasquez, 3-8, 6.23)
The struggling Padres picked up Velasquez for some much needed starting help. So far it hasn’t worked. His last start was only three days ago but it only lasted 1 inning. Since joining the Padres, he has given up more than a run an inning in 2 starts. Considering how hard the Padres’ bullpen has been used (5 innings per game over the last 7), we may see more of Velasquez today than would be ideal.
Atlanta rookie Ynoa has delivered short adequate starts in September but his ERA has slipped to 5.12. The Braves’ pen has been lightly used and very effective of late with an ERA of 2.66 in their last seven games.
The Padres’ bats are also struggling, especially in the last week. The Braves, still in line for the play-offs, have been top-three in offense this week. The Braves are a very strong road team, 5-1 in their last 6 games, and good against right-handers. Considering Velasquez’s and the Padres relievers’ struggles, I am wagering on the total in the first half. Watch this game go over the total for the first five innings.
|09-24-21||Mariners v. Angels UNDER 8.5||6-5||Loss||-109||11 h 31 m||Show|
Mariners (Gilbert, 6-5, 4.74) vs Angels (Suarez, 7-8, 3.67)
A pair of achieving youngsters are on the mound in the Mariners/ Angels match up. Rookie Logan Gilbert has settled down to be a very strong starter, especially in September. He is 1-0, with an ERA of 2.01 in 4 starts, and has worked his way up to 6 and 7 innings lately. The Angels have had no luck against Gilbert. 23 year old lefty, Jose Suarez is 2-1 in his last three games, giving up 5 runs over his last 20+ innings. The Mariners have hit Suarez well this season.
The Mariners are still in the thick of the wild card race, and have won 5 straight. Their bullpen has been lightly used and effective of late. They are a very good road team and solid vs left-handers.
The Rangers are 1-6, and basically out in the pasture, looking over the fence. Their hitting is in the bottom 10% of the league at the moment, and they struggle against the right. Add to that, an overused and ineffective bullpen (5.67 of late) and you do not have a recipe for success.
I like many aspects in this game but the total in the first half stands out. Take the Under in the first five innings.
|09-24-21||Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 9||8-5||Win||105||5 h 5 m||Show|
Cardinals (Happ, 9-8, 6.02) vs Cubs (Steele, 3-3, 4.20)
The Cards and Cubs meet up for a double header on Friday. Happ starts the first game for the Cardinals. It looked like Happ had re-found his form in August, finishing the month with a 2.22 ERA. September has been much crueler; he had an 8.22 Era in 4 games. He still delivers 5 innings a game.
Justin Steele has been effective in September, allowing 9 runs over 14 innings. He averages 4 to 5 innings per start. The problem for Steele is that the Cubs’ bullpen has been very poor (6.61 Era in the last 7 games), and short starts won’t win many games in Chicago.
The Cardinals are the hottest team in baseball and have been scoring a ton of runs. The Cubs have been pretty average in offense and are 2-8 in their last ten games. Basically going through the motions. The Cards are a very good road favorite, and a strong 22-13 vs left-handers.
I like the Cards’ chances here but Happ can give up a lot of runs in a hurry. The total is average for 7 innings. Take the total to go over.
|09-23-21||Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 8||8-5||Loss||-102||7 h 44 m||Show|
Cardinals (Wainwright, 16-7, 2.89) vs Brewers (Houser, 9-6, 3.43)
The Cards are the hottest team in baseball, whipped the Brewers on Wednesday, and are 10-0 in their last ten games. And they have their ace Adam Wainwright, the ageless one, on the mound. The only thing that stands in the way of a 4 game sweep of the Brewers is Adrian Houser. His last start was his worst in some time (4 ER over 4 innings), but his two previous were shut-outs of 6 and 9 inning duration. This has the makings of a real pitcher’s duel and, a rarity this late in the season, both teams have very sharp bullpens.
The Cards, modest hitting usually, are punching well above their weight, while Milwaukee is in the doldrums. Their collective batting avg. is below .200 of late, and they have won only 2 of their last 6 games. The Cards are a very good road team, and are on a terrific roll at the moment. They have won their way into wild-card potential.
I like the Cards here, but I like the Total more. Take the total to go under.
|09-20-21||Orioles v. Phillies UNDER 8||2-0||Win||100||8 h 1 m||Show|
Orioles (Means: 5-7, 3.41) vs Phillies (R.Suarez 6-4, 1.50)
The Orioles have a lamentable record and you don’t need to look further than their pitching for the reason. John Means has been as close as you can find to a starter with acceptable stats, but with a bullpen that struggles to the tune of 8.63/ L7, a winning record is unlikely. Note that Means’ WHIP is a solid 1.00 for the season.
Ranger Suarez is as good as anyone since converting to “starter-dom” and has stretched out to 6 innings per outing. He is a sparkling 5-0 with an ERA of 1.60 at home this season.
Let’s bypass the bullpens and look at the first half today. Neither team has a successful record vs. lefties and both pitchers tend to be strong early. Neither team has experience vs. the opposing pitcher.
While the total is low for the first half, I think it is a safe bet today. Take the under in the first 5 innings.
|09-16-21||Astros v. Rangers OVER 8.5||12-1||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
Astros (Valdez, 10-5, 3.26) vs. Rangers (Otto, 0-1, 6.92)
The Astros are comfortably in first in their division, while the Rangers are firmly in the cellar. That said, the Rangers are not going with a whimper. At 7-3 in their last 10 games, it is the offense driving this recent success. The Astros (6-4) are always dominant in run production, sitting 2nd in the league at the moment.
The Rangers’ rookie, Glen Otto, was brought down to earth in his last start, allowing 8 runs in 3+ innings. Previously he had been sharp in his first two starts, including five innings of shutout pitching against the Astros.
Framber Valdez has been effective most of the season, but his last two starts have not been remarkable. After pitching strongly in August his ERA has ballooned to 6.55 in September.
As one might expect, the numbers favor the Astros, and they are a huge favorite today. The total is more promising. The Astros were shutout by Otto, and that must be an irritant for these high-flyers. Many rookies start with a flourish, then stumble, and that may be the case today. Valdez could bounce back, but he does give up runs early. The total for the first half is low considering these two offenses. Take the OVER in the first five innings.
|09-15-21||Cubs v. Phillies UNDER 9||5-6||Loss||-107||8 h 38 m||Show|
Cubs (Mills, 6-6, 4.35) vs Phillies (R. Suarez, 6-4, 1.38)
What a find the Phillies have in Suarez! Since shifting from reliever/closer, he has been razor sharp. In his last three starts he has allowed 2 runs over 16+ innings. His opponent Alec Mills has been up and down in his last three games, dominating the Reds and White Sox while struggling against Pittsburgh. Looking closer, he is usually a safe bet in his first 5 innings.
The Phillies offense is not at its best and their bullpen is very poor of late. The Cubs struggle on the road and will not have much success vs. Suarez. I like the under today, but only in the first half. Take the Cubs and Phillies to go under in the first five innings.
|09-14-21||Indians v. Twins UNDER 6.5||3-1||Win||105||9 h 12 m||Show|
Indians (McKenzie, 4-6, 4.44) vs Twins (Ryan, 1-1, 0.42)
The Twins used 6 relievers in their loss to the Yankees on Monday, and now face Cleveland in a double header. Rookie Joe Ryan threw 7 innings of shutout ball against the same Indians in his last start, which was only the second start in his career. Any relation to Nolan? Maybe he can give the Twins the innings they need on Tuesday..
The Indians had a day off to give their collective heads a shake and try and recover from their 2-8 bad dream. They also have a fine young right-hander pitching on Tuesday. Tristan McKenzie has been very sharp in his last three games, allowing 1 run each outing over 19 innings.
The Indians have the better bullpen, are faster, commit less errors, and are decent on the road. There is just one problem; they have the worst offense in the league of late. The Twins aren’t a powerhouse either and are only a modest home team. In the strange facts category, they are only 5-18 when playing on a Tuesday.
It appears neither team wants to win, so lets take the Total. Under 6.5 is available in this 7 inning start. Considering how these two youngsters have handled themselves and their ability to pitch some length, take the Indians and Twins to go UNDER in Game 1.
|09-13-21||Cardinals v. Mets UNDER 8||7-0||Win||100||12 h 28 m||Show|
Cardinals (Wainwright, 15-7, 2.98) vs. Mets (Hill, 6-6, 3.82)
The Mets and Cardinals are long-shots for a wild card spot, so this is still a significant series. Neither team has been able to break out of the .500 winning % range and make a run. It is Adam Wainwright vs Rich Hill on Monday. Wainwright has been one of the best in the league this season and shows no real signs of slowing down. He allowed 4 runs over 8+ innings in last outing which, for him, is a poor start. He is 6-1 with a 1.57 ERA over his last 7.
Rich Hill has been a bit of a surprise for the Mets, especially in September, with an ERA of 0.61 in 12 innings pitched over two starts. He has been very dependable and hasn’t given up more than 3 ER in 8 starts.
The Mets’ pen has been steady all year and even better in their last games. Where there has also been improvement is in run production, although less so against right-handers.
The Cardinals have been very soft at the plate, especially in the last three weeks. Their bullpen is usually average and has been slightly better last 7. They are effective vs. lefties.
It is a tough call on a winner in this game so I’m looking at the total. Both starters have been very effective and pitch for length. The total is not high considering the quality of the starters. Take the Cards and Mets to go Under.
|09-12-21||Red Sox v. White Sox UNDER 9||1-2||Win||101||3 h 53 m||Show|
Red Sox (Pivetta, 9-7, 4.67) vs White Sox (Lynn, 10-4, 2.59)
With a good lead in the AL Central, the White Sox are comfortable, but for Boston it is red alert in their hunt for a wild card spot in the very competitive AL East.
Both starters have missed a start; Pivetta with Covid issues, and Lynn with a long-standing knee inflammation. Pivetta has struggled in August at 1-3, and 5.27 ERA. Lynn is coming off his worst start, allowing 7 runs over 5 innings. It will be interesting to see how these two starters respond.
Both of these teams can hit. Boston in particular has been potent lately. Both teams are very strong against righties. Pivetta has given up 4 runs in five innings or less in his last three starts. With both starters’ layoffs, a little rust is to be expected. I am looking at the early total today. Take the Sox’ game to go under in the first five innings.
|09-11-21||Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8||4-6||Win||100||8 h 17 m||Show|
Reds (Castillo, 7-15, 4.20) vs Cardinals (Mikolas, 0-2, 5.06)
The Reds padded their lead over the Cards yesterday, and will look to add on today. Luis Castillo starts for the Reds. Castillo has pitched better than his won/lost record would suggest, with solid starts of some length. He lost to the Cards a couple of starts ago but only gave up a pair of runs.
His opponent is Mike Mikolas. Mikolas has yet to find his groove after a very long stretch on the DL, giving up 11 runs in12+innings pitched. He did stretch out his last start to 5 innings.
The Cards bullpen has been solid but did stumble in the 9th yesterday. The Reds’ pen has been a stumbling block all season and has an ERA of 6.20 in their last 7 games.
The Reds have the superior offense in theory although they have under-achieved of late. The Cards, after a brief power surge,have been about normal, meaning low scoring, in the past week.
The Reds are a good road team, 50-38 as a favorite and solid against right-handers. Mikolas has yet to show signs of improvement. The wind is blowing out today. Take this game to GO OVER THE TOTAL.
|09-11-21||Giants v. Cubs UNDER 10.5||15-4||Loss||-107||5 h 36 m||Show|
Giants (Gausman, 13-5, 2.58) vs Cubs, Davies, 6-10, 5.16)
The Giants are on a tear, winning Friday 6-1 on a bullpen day. Eight pitchers combined for 1 run! Pretty well the only team as hot as them are their opponents today; the surprising Chicago Cubs. Why have the Cubs been winning? Bats and bullpen. They have been hitting above their weight for a few weeks and their relievers have been extremely effective in their last 7 games, with an ERA of 1.05. There is a caveat here; the pen has been averaging 4.9 innings a game of late which is unsustainable. Note that today the bullpen struggled and the offense was subpar. This is more typical of the Cubs this season. Zack Davies starts for the Cubs. It has been a poor season for Davies. He is 1-4, 6.70 since the All-star break, and has struggled at home. His starts have been very short lately, averaging about 4 innings. He can pitch effectively, but the poor starts are becoming more frequent.
Kevin Gausman starts for the Giants. He isn’t pitching for quite the same length nor is he quite as effective at 4-2, 4.56 ERA since the All-star break, but he is still one of the premier starters in baseball. He is very sharp on the road (7-2, 1.95 ERA).
The Giants bullpen has been consistent all year, and has a 2.23 ERA lately. The Giants have also ridden their pen hard to the tune of 4.62 innings per game, and with eight pitchers used on Friday it is concerning.The Giants have a solid offense but it is better than usual in the past couple of weeks. They are very good away, versus right-handers, you name it, they are good at it.
Let's look at the total. I don’t see the Cubs scoring a lot of runs vs. Gausman, and while Davies was roughed up for 6 runs last start, he gave up 2 and 1 in his previous outings. The total is very high at 10.5. Take the Giants and Cubs to go under, even considering the weather.
|09-10-21||Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8||0-3||Win||100||15 h 43 m||Show|
Padres (Musgrove, 10-8, 2.87) vs Dodgers (Urias, 16-3, 3.11)
The Padres are now a long shot for any post-season activities other than golf. The Dodgers are still in the hunt for first in the NL West. It is hard to say who is the Dodgers’ ace but certainly their winning-est pitcher is on the hill on Friday. Urias has been an eye-opener this season and shows no sign of slowing down. He has a 5-0 record since the All-star break and hasn’t given up more than two runs in 8 starts. Urias’s starts aren’t the longest, but he has already pitched 150+ innings which is more than double than in any other year in his career. Urias is supported by by the Dodgers’ very fine pen, with a 1.69 ERA in the last 7 games.
Facing him is Joe Musgrove, no slouch as a starter himself. In three starts, he has given up only 3 runs in 20+ innings, including a full game shut out. San Diego’s normally good bullpen has not been as sharp of late, with an ERA of 4.30.
The Padres are 3-3 in their last 6 games. They are 24 -16 versus lefties, but only 30-34 on the road. The Dodgers are lights out as a home team, and 61-38 vs. right-handed starters. They have great starters, a terrific pen, so why aren’t they leading the NL West? Because their once potent offense has stumbled into the nether regions of MLB team batting stats in recent weeks. In fact both teams are struggling in average and run production..
Two quality starters and two underachieving lineups. As of now the total is set at 81/2, which seems high to me. Take the Padres and Dodgers to go under on Friday evening.
|09-09-21||Rockies v. Phillies UNDER 8.5||4-3||Win||100||12 h 36 m||Show|
Rockies (Senzatela, 4.16, 4-9) vs. Phillies (Suarez, 6-4, 1.38)
The Rockies are going nowhere this year and at 3-7 in their last 10 games they are playing like it. The Phillies are still in the mix for a wild card spot but wins are now of the essence. Ranger Suarez has been a bright light since he switched to the starter’s role. He is now regularly pitching into the 6th inning and his ERA is super sharp at 1.38. He has only allowed 2 runs over 17 innings in 3 starts.
Senzatela has also been solid lately although his record and the team record will not show it. He is 2-1 with an ERA of 3.11 since the All-star break and one of the few bright spots in the Rockies lineup.
The Rockies road stats are astoundingly poor. They are 5 and 12 as a road underdog, and 18- 50 on the road. The Phillies are 39-28 at home, and 7-1 as a strong home favorite. They are very successful against right-handed pitchers.
The offensive stats for the two teams are remarkably similar from average to runs scored to slugging %. They are also both struggling, with the 20th and 21st best offenses in MLB this past week. I am going to bypass bullpens today and just look at the first half. Based on both teams’ poor run production, and a lack of experience and/or success with the pair of strong starters, I am looking for the total to go under in the first five innings.
|09-09-21||Royals v. Orioles UNDER 8.5||6-0||Win||101||8 h 11 m||Show|
Royals (Hernandez, 5-1, 3.57) vs. Orioles (Means, 5-6, 3.47)
With little to play for but pride and salaries, KC is 3-7, and the Orioles, slightly better at 5-5. Carlos Hernandez starts for the Royals. He has been a bright light this season, and now has 11 starts under his belt. He is 2-0 in his last three starts, allowing only 3 runs in 19 innings. His opponent John Means had a no hitter in May, and has been steady since return from the DL. He has allowed 7 runs over 17+ innings in his last three starts. The Orioles have not been kind to Means with a 7-14 record when he is on the mound.
The Orioles are woeful at home, and in the rare times they are a home favorite, equally bad. In the weird facts category, they appear to not enjoy playing on Thursdays, going 2-10. Their bullpen usually struggles but, last night aside, has been better lately. KC is poor on the road, but better vs lefties. They apparently don’t mind playing on Thursdays, with a record of 7-9!
Neither offense is particularly potent, and today’s starters are about the best these two teams can offer. Last night’s game featured a very high total but I don’t think that will be repeated today. The under has featured in both of these starters’ games, and that is what I expect today. Royals and Orioles to go under.
|09-08-21||White Sox v. A's OVER 8.5||1-5||Loss||-100||11 h 39 m||Show|
White Sox (Keuchel, 8-8, 5.21) vs. Athletics (Montas, 11-9, 3.68)
The Sox and A’s are back at it today as Keuchel faces Montas. Keuchel has been inconsistent at best with only a rare quality start. He won against the A’s in August but that was the exception. The A’s batters have had considerable success against him in the past. He was 1-3 in August with a miserable 7.43 ERA, and has been poor on the road. Facing him is Frankie Montas. With a pair of 7 inning shutouts in his last 3 starts, Montas has been sharp lately, and pitches for length, something the A’s need desperately. Their bullpen has been overworked and pounded mercilessly in their last games.
The White Sox have scored a ton of runs lately, and the A’s offense has been pulling its weight. The A’s are very good against lefties, which is bad news for Keuchel. The White Sox are good against righties and have had some success against Montas.
I am looking at the total today. With the combination of Keuchel’s woes and the A’s inept bullpen plus both teams’ respective abilities vs. right and left, take the total to go over today.
|09-07-21||White Sox v. A's OVER 9||6-3||Push||0||10 h 60 m||Show|
White Sox (Lambert, 0-1,5.40) vs. A’s (Kaprielian, 7-4, 3.87)
Off a loss, and with an off day, the A’s need to change their feeble ways to keep any hopes of a wild card spot alive. Their fine rookie, James Kaprielian is on the mound, only he hasn’t been so fine lately. His ERA has regressed each month since the season opened. He has given up 11 runs over 13 innings in his last three starts. The home run ball (8 in his last 4 games) has hurt him badly, and his expected start length is only 4 to 5 inning.
The White Sox are having starting pitcher injury woes, which is likely why Triple A call up Jimmy Lambert is starting. He has given up 4 runs over 6 innings as a starter, so look for a very short outing today.
Both teams will likely rely on their bullpens to a greater extent today. This is OK for the White Sox and very bad news for the A’s. The Athletics’ pen has a monstrous ERA of 8.07 in their last 7 games.
As far as offense goes, The White Sox are one of the more potent teams in the MLB and the A’s are hitting above their weight lately.
I am looking at the total in this game. The White Sox have scored more than 10 runs in 4 of the last 9 games. The A’s have allowed 43 runs in their last five games! I had to check my math twice.. I am taking today’s game to go over the total.
|09-06-21||Phillies v. Brewers OVER 7||12-0||Win||100||3 h 57 m||Show|
Phillies (Wheeler, 11-9, 3.01) vs Brewers (Woodruff, 9-7, 2.35)
Here are two teams still in the hunt. The Phillies have been hot and send out their ace, Zack Wheeler today. Wheeler has been in the run for the Cy Young award and has pitched the most innings in the league, but he shows all of the signs of a tired pitcher in his last starts. He is 3-3 in August with an era of 4.81. It gets worse. He has given up 15 runs in the last 20+ innings. He has been less successful on the road.
Brandon Woodruff is on the mound for the Brewers. Since a blip some starts ago, Woodruff has been very sharp, allowing only 1 run over 12 innings in his last 2 starts. He is excellent at home and in day games. The Phillies have had no success against Woodruff.
The Brewers are not a great home team, but they have dominated right-handed pitchers to the tune of 66-39. One issue today is that their usually sound bullpen has struggled mightily in their last 7 games. The Phillies offense has been potent in recent weeks, and are also successful against the right. Their bullpen has been much better with an ERA of 2.84 in their last 7 games.
These two teams haven’t faced each other since May when the Phillies swept the Brewers. I expect the Brewers are looking for a little payback this series. I like Woodruff in this game, but the Brewers’ relief tumble scares me off a bit. The under for the first five innings is low, and with Wheeler being very average of late, seems like a good bet. Take the total to go over in the first five innings.
|09-01-21||Astros v. Mariners OVER 8.5||0-1||Loss||-110||5 h 6 m||Show|
Astros (Odorizzi: 6-6, 4.46) vs Mariners (Gilbert: 5-5, 5.44)
Houston was shut out last night. Kikuchi surprised me with an unexpected return to pre-allstar form. Rookie Logan Gilbert is pitching for the Mariners, and any surprises are far more unlikely. Gilbert has struggled mightily; in his last 3 starts he has given up 19 runs in 12+ innings. He has been poor at home, and was absolutely pummeled by the Astros just 10 days ago.
Odorrizzi starts for the Astros today. He is 3-2 in August and has allowed 7 runs in his last 15+
innings. He is not a good road starter and has struggled against the right.
The Astros have the edge in offense, and tend to prey upon struggling right-handers. Let us take the bullpens out of the equation, and wager on the first half. Take the Astros/ Mariners total to go over in the first five innings.
|09-01-21||Cardinals v. Reds OVER 7||5-4||Win||111||3 h 58 m||Show|
Cardinals (Mikolas: 0-1, 2.70) vs Reds (Miley: 11-4, 2.74)
The Reds, still in the hunt for a wild card spot, have lost 3 in a row, and it turns to Wade Miley to slap on a band-aid before things get out of hand. Miley has been terrific for the Reds, 3-0 in August, whilegiving up only 2 runs in his last three starts. He has a 7-2 record at home. His opponent today is Miles Mikolas, a recent returnee from a serious stretch on the DL. The early returns on Mikolas are very promising. He has given up 4 runs over 13+ innings in his first three starts. The Reds are one of the best hitting teams around, and to date, Mikolas has only faced the Pirates twice, so it might be a little early to jump on his bandwagon. In addition, the usually dependable Cards’ bullpen has not been as good. The Reds pen is always a sore spot on an otherwise strong team.
The total has gone under far more than average for these two teams, leading to an unnaturally low one today. The Reds bats will be hungry today. Take the first game of the Card/Reds doubleheader to go OVER.