|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|05-14-22||Padres v. Braves OVER 8||Top||5-6||Win||100||9 h 58 m||Show|
The Padres won big in their series opener vs the home-team Braves. The Braves are now under .500 at home. Very veteran Charlie Morton (5.65 ERA) starts for the Braves on Saturday. His last start was a five inning shutout, but he has struggled in his first five. He has been poor early in his games, allowing 12 of his 19 runs in the first two innings. The Padres have had some success with Morton in the past. Is Uncle Charlie back on form or was the last start a one-off?
Lefty Sean Manaea starts for the Padres. The year began well, but his last three starts have been very average. He has 38 strikeouts, but has also given up 4 home runs in 4 games. The fifth inning has killed him this year with his ERA nearly 12. for that inning. The Padres’ bullpen has been poor in their last 5 games win an ERA over 4.80. The Braves pen had been showing somewhat better but it was pounded by the Padres on Friday night.
The Padres are 11-5 on the road, and have seen the over on the road 7 out of 8 times. The Braves have also seen their share of overs lately. These two teams managed 17 runs on Friday. I don't expect both of Saturday's starters to fare well, and neither bullpen has been very dependable. I am wagering that Saturday's game will go over.
|05-13-22||Cubs v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5||Top||3-4||Loss||-115||14 h 17 m||Show|
Don’t look now but the Diamondbacks are 7-3 and working their way into semi-respectability. The Cubs are the reverse at 3-7 L10, getting short and poor outings from their starters. Friday’s starters are also going in different directions. Cubs’ lefty Smyly (3.04) threw shut-outs in his first two starts but has regressed since then. His starts have lasted just 4+ innings in his last two, and the long ball has been an issue. Right-handed starter Zack Davies has been quite the reverse. He had an ERA of 5.40 over 4 starts in April, but has come around in May with 2 shutout appearances lasting 11 innings.
Neither bullpen is anything special. The D-backs’ pen was absolutely shelled last time out, and is barely adequate otherwise. The only advantage is that Davies will likely pitch longer into the start.
While the starting pitching is the usual culprit, the Cubs’ relievers’ ERA is hovering around 4.00 and has been used a lot.
The Cubs would appear to have a considerable advantage on offense, but looking closer, they have been hitting very poorly vs right handed pitching, batting .187/10. The Cubs have also faced some of the best starters in the league lately, so could be due for a bounce-back. The Diamond-backs are hardly a powerhouse on offense, but are hitting 50 points better vs lefties over the last 10 games. I don’t see both of these starters faring well on Friday, and neither bullpen is of shut-down quality. I will be interested to see if the D-backs continue their success at home (4-2) and against left-handed pitching.Let us also see if the Cubs’ bats can return to form. I am wagering on the Cubs and Diamondbacks going over the total.
|05-05-22||Marlins v. Padres OVER 7||Top||1-2||Loss||-120||10 h 23 m||Show|
Miami was swept by the D-backs, and are up against a tougher opponent in the Padres. Lefty Jesus Luzardo (3.10) starts for the Marlins. Other than one poor start, he has been very strong, giving up just I HR and striking out 28. His mound opponent, Nick Martinez(4.12 ERA) hasn’t been quite as effective, with relatively short starts and some control issues.
The Marlins have the edge in relief pitching for the season; it was the starters who let them down vs the Diamondbacks. The Padres’ bullpen has a collective ERA over 4, and has bulged to 4.80 in their last 5 games.
Surprisingly, the Marlins also have an edge in offense at the moment, and hit better against right-handers. The Padres are hitting poorly for average and middle of the pack for power, but for the season have hit left-handers better.
It is tough to pick a favorite in this game, so I am looking to the total today. Martinez’s control issues are a concern as is the Padres’ bullpen. The total is low for this match-up, too low for my liking. Take the Marlins and Padres to go over.
|05-05-22||Nationals v. Rockies OVER 10.5||Top||7-9||Win||100||8 h 9 m||Show|
It is a long time since Aaron Sanchez pitched successfully. He finished last season poorly and has just 2 very average starts this year. He likely won’t last long and may not prosper in Coors Field.
Rockies starter Senzatela, has pitched well in the rarefied airs of Colorado. In 4 starts to date, he had just one “rocky” one and that was in Detroit. He was very good vs the Reds last start.
Both teams are top 5 in batting and have hit the ball particularly hard lately. The Nationals have scored 38 runs in their last 4 games and the Rockies have had a pair of 10 run efforts in their last five.
Neither of these bullpens can hold a lead. The Rockies are last in bullpen stats and the Nationals aren’t far behind. The total is high, but I am all over the OVER on Thursday
|04-26-22||Orioles v. Yankees UNDER 8||Top||8-12||Loss||-125||8 h 4 m||Show|
The O’s face the Yankees in the confines of Yankee Stadium on Tuesday. The Orioles took their home series from the Yankees on the backs of their pitchers. Today’s starter Jordan Lyles held NY to just 1 run over 5 innings in his second start. He was roughed up in his first outing of the year, but his last two have been excellent. The O’s are also getting very good results from their bullpen, with a collective ERA of just 2.75. Of note, the Orioles have 3 shutouts to date.
Severino starts for NY. After 2 lost seasons due to injury, Severino appears healthy and the stats reflect this. In his 2nd and 3rd start, he lasted 10 innings total, allowing just a single run. The Yankees’ bullpen has been most impressive, with a very sharp ERA of 2.44, good for 4th in the league.
While the Yankees are not hitting for average (.235 ERA), their power figures are acceptable, although more is expected from Yankees’ bats. They have been a solid 7-3 at home this year. The Orioles are poor on the road so far (3-7) and also poor vs right-handed pitching (3-6). Their offense, as expected, is struggling in a big way, hitting just .211, with a severe power outage, just 44 runs, and 6 home runs to date.
These are two fine starters, supported by strong relievers. The Orioles’ offense is out and out poor, and the Yankees’ bats have yet to fully come around. The total is on the high side. I am a big fan of the under today
|04-23-22||Blue Jays v. Astros UNDER 8.5||Top||3-2||Win||100||6 h 49 m||Show|
The Blue Jays meet the Astros for the second game of the series in Houston. Astros starter Urquidy was shelled the first time out, but was much more as expected in his second. He will have to pitch very well on Saturday to match the Jays’ starter Manoah, who has been dominant in his first two starts, pitching for length early in the season.
Both teams have at least 1 big bat down. The Astros hitters have not found their form yet. Their team batting average is sub.200, and the runs just aren’t coming. The Jays have the edge on offense at the moment, but if he is on form, Urquidy is tough to take advantage of. The Astros have the better bullpen, but the Jays’ closer has won 8 straight.
The total for this game is high, but it doesn’t reflect the quality of the starters or relievers. The Astros in particular have not lived up to their reputation on offense to date. Take this game to go Under.
|04-19-22||Giants v. Mets UNDER 7||Top||4-5||Loss||-100||4 h 43 m||Show|
The 7-2 Giants aren’t big on giving up runs, allowing just 7 in their last five games. Alex Cobb is back for his second start, and likely won’t change the “low runs allowed” pattern, if his first start was anything to go by.
The road Giants take on the Mets, another team off to a fine start. One reason the Mets are flourishing is the fine start from Tylor Megill, who did not give up a run in his first two starts. He was equally fine in the spring.
Here is a fine opportunity for early total. The Mets are right behind the Giants for fewest runs against. Both pitchers are have been tough on the opposition and will likely go at least 5 innings. Take the under.
|04-14-22||Mariners v. White Sox UNDER 9.5||Top||5-1||Win||100||13 h 27 m||Show|
Seattle’s young starter Logan Gilbert, finished 2021 strongly and was terrific in his first start of this season. The question is, will Seattle give him any run support? The Mariner bats have been slow to start this year.
The Mariners are up against the White Sox’ inexperienced pitcher Lambert. He started 3 games last year to mixed results, and didn’t pitch much this spring. The White Sox have started the season well, and their offense has been solid, but I think they’ll struggle vs. Gilbert. Between Seattle’s starter and Seattle’s bat, don’t look for a high-scoring game. I’m wagering on the Under
|04-08-22||Astros v. Angels UNDER 9.5||Top||13-6||Loss||-110||20 h 8 m||Show|
Houston has been on a roll this spring, and the success has been on the backs of its pitching staff. The Astros’ offense has, surprisingly, not shown up this spring or, for that matter, in Game 1. Odorizzi has pitched mainly on the sidelines, but pitched well in his one appearance against the Mets. He has been moved up in rotation due to an early injury to McCullers.
The Angels have also had a good spring, showing offense and reasonable pitching. Detmers is a surprise starter in game 2, but has great potential and has had a very good spring. I am excited about his stuff and think he will show well against the Astros.
The Astros offense will break out sooner or later, but I am banking on it not happening on Friday. The total is relatively high; higher than I think is warranted in this match-up. Take this game to go under the total.
|04-08-22||White Sox v. Tigers OVER 8||Top||4-5||Win||100||12 h 10 m||Show|
The Tigers face the White Sox in their home opener, a team against which Detroit had some success in 2021, when they split their match-ups. Both teams have been just under .500 in spring training. The Tigers could be classed as up and coming this year. Rodriguez starts for Detroit. The lefty has been a consistent performer in his career and has pitched 17 innings this spring with a reasonable ERA. The Tigers’ pitching staff has shown well so far, although their offense has yet to establish itself.
Much more is expected of the White Sox for 2022. Their offense has very good so far, with overall pitching lagging behind. Giolito starts on Friday, and he has had a very good spring. He faced the Tigers twice last year, splitting his appearances with both games going over the total.
It would be easy to count the Tigers out against the Sox, but with the Sox' strong batting and weak relief pitching in Spring, I more inclined to take a look at the total. A reasonably low number is available, and with neither starter likely to go long, the bullpens will have some say. Take this game to go over.
|04-07-22||Pirates v. Cardinals OVER 8||Top||0-9||Win||100||9 h 60 m||Show|
The “ever-young” Adam Wainwright is back as the starter in the Cardinals’ home opener. Will this be his final season? He was terrific last year, and other than a couple of rough innings, looked on form in Spring. The Cards had a great run last year and have started spring training strongly. This is very much a veteran team that knows how to win.
The Pirates enter the season dead last in the MLB power rankings. They are a young team with some interesting talent who may find their way into the bigs at some point in the season, but don’t look for them to make many waves right off the start. Brubaker is a surprise starter for the Pirates. He struggled badly last year with a very sizable ERA. The Pirates’ pitching staff has not shown well in spring training.
Today’s total is reasonably low. I expect the home favorite Cardinals to take advantage of an unsettled Pirates team with a questionable starter. A pitching gem is highly unlikely. Wager on the over in this match-up.
|11-02-21||Braves v. Astros OVER 8.5||Top||7-0||Loss||-120||14 h 35 m||Show|
Braves (Fried, 1-2, 5.40) vs. Astros (1-2, 7.62)
As a handicapper it is hard to have faith in either starter in Game 6. Rookie Luis Garcia has been all over the map; two short poor outings, followed by a 5+ inning gem, followed by a wild effort where he struck out six, walked four, but only allowed 3 hits and a run. To top it off, he is pitching on only three days rest. Like any starter in the post season, he will be on a very short leash. The Astros’ pen has been excellent right through the series, has a 1.50 ERA, while used for over 4 innings per game. And with the immediate threat of elimination, anyone and everyone is available in relief.
I want to believe in Fried on Tuesday. I won a ton of games with him in the regular season, but he has not impressed in the post season. Much is made of soft hits, and his performance after the second inning of his last start, but he allowed 6 runs in that start, and 5 in the previous start. He is at least pitching on 6 days rest.
The Braves bullpen, ridden mercilessly through the postseason, over-achieved until game five when the Astros bats finally woke up. It may be a case of overexposure, and does not bode well for Game 6. The same could hold true for the Astros pen. Game 6 may be the tipping point for them. There are very hot hitters on both sides.
I don’t think we can expect a low-scoring game; either one of these starters could fail, and as mentioned the relief could also falter. I think the bats will rule on Tuesday. Take game 6 to go over.
|10-26-21||Braves v. Astros OVER 8||6-2||Push||0||12 h 24 m||Show|
Braves (Morton, 0-1, 3.77) vs. Astros (Valdez, 1-0, 4.20)
The Braves, the national league’s unexpected champs, start Charlie Morton against the powerhouse Astros. Morton has started three games in the postseason, and while he hasn’t been overpowering, he has kept the score down. He is well rested and a very experienced post-season starter, and if he is on his game, capable of pitching for length. His opponent is Framber Valdez, who will be remembered for his 8 inning 3 hit, 1 ER outing that broke the backs of the Red Sox. But let’s not forget the previous 2 post season starts that were not pretty, allowing 6 runs over 7+ innings. So, which Valdez shows up on Tuesday? If Valdez can get out of the second inning he also could go pitch late into the game.
The Astros’ bullpen has much better than usual with an ERA of 2.63/L7, although it has been relied upon heavily. The Braves bullpen has not been as sharp, although their starters fared much better than the Astros starters to date. Both bullpens should be adequately rested.
The Braves are a good road team, and solid vs lefties, but were very poor in interleague games this year. The Astros were dominant at home and vs. right-handers in the regular season. Looking at the batting stats for the postseason, there are a whole lot of Astros high in the list. The Braves are no slouches for offense and have some hot hitters right now. I like the total on Tuesday, in particular the early one. I can't see the offenses being completely shutdown early. Take the total to go over in the first five innings.
|10-22-21||Red Sox v. Astros OVER 9||0-5||Loss||-100||10 h 8 m||Show|
Red Sox (Eovaldi, 2-0) vs Astros (Garcia, 0-1)
The Red Sox face elimination and have Eovaldi, their only successful starter, on the mound. Eovaldi has already started three games in the postseason, winning two of them. He was not quite as dominant in the start vs. the Astros, and was then called upon to pitch a very unwise bullpen 2/3 of an inning and was shelled for 4 ER. How this will impact on his start on Friday remains to be seen, but he will be pitching on 3 days rest twice.
Luis Garcia has started 2 games, lasted 3 2/3 innings and has an ERA well into the 20’s. He was also roughed up in his last regular season start. He has a history of inflated ERA in the first innings, but is a much better pitcher at home. The Astros are no doubt hoping for a turnaround similar to Valdez’s in the previous game, but it is less likely.
Valdez’s stellar start gave the Astros pen a solid day of rest, while the Red Sox used five relievers. The Red Sox pen has a collective ERA of 6.25 in their last 7 games, and has been relied on for over 4 innings of relief per game. The Astros bullpen is better at 4.08 ERA/7 games.
Both teams obviously have the ability to score runs in a hurry. The Red Sox, in the regular season, were not a terrific road team. Both teams hit right-handers very well.
I am doubtful of Garcia’s success today and can’t see Eovaldi lasting, Take the Sox/Astros total today to go over.
|10-20-21||Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9.5||9-1||Win||100||7 h 34 m||Show|
Astros (Valdez) vs. Red Sox (Sale)
Can we expect a return to normalcy in Game 5? If this game goes as others in the series have then expect another high scoring affair. Both pitchers are starting on five days’ rest and both have not thrown a lot of innings in the post season. Both are left-handers which should statistically be an advantage. Sale looked better in his second post season start, but was pulled after just 2+ innings. He has struggled vs. right-handers recently, which plays to the Astros’ strength. Valdez was roughed up in both his postseason starts, lasting just a total of 7 innings.
The Astros’ bullpen has been, surprisingly, somewhat better than average. Most of the damage the Red Sox have done has been against starters. The Boston pen is struggling, with an ERA of 4.75 and has been used heavily, more than 5 innings a game on average.
The total has been over in 12 0f 14 of these two teams’ games. Will today be any different? Possibly in the first five innings, but neither of these starters are destined to pitch long, and the offenses are just too potent for a low total. Take this game to go over.
|10-19-21||Braves v. Dodgers OVER 7.5||5-6||Win||106||5 h 2 m||Show|
Braves (Morton, 0-1, 3.34) vs. Dodgers (Buehler, 0-1, 3.38)
Down an unexpected 0-2, today is an absolute must win for the Dodgers. Buehler is back on the mound, with some extra day’s rest. He struggled somewhat in his first post-season start but was better against the Giants in his 2nd short outing. Buehler and Morton met in late August, with Buehler slightly the better pitcher.
Morton finished the regular season strongly allowing 3 runs over 15+ innings in his last three starts. He has not been quite as sharp in the post-season, allowing 4 runs over 9 innings. He too is well rested.
The Braves bullpen has been nothing short of exceptional in this series, which might have come as a surprise to many. The Dodgers pen has been as expected, although they have coughed up a couple of clutch Atlanta runs.
I hate to say it, but the Dodgers have been unlucky in this series. Now back at home where they have been almost unbeatable down the stretch, they are a big favorite to win today. The totals are predictably low. I am looking for the Dodgers’ bats to wake up today, and I believe it will come at the expense of Morton and the Atlanta relievers. Take the total to go over in the first five innings.
|10-18-21||Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9||3-12||Win||100||12 h 28 m||Show|
Astros (Urquidy) vs Red Sox (Rodriguez, 0-1)
Will the bats continue to reign in the Astros’ and Red Sox’ game 3? It is Urquidy and Rodriguez on the mound on Monday. Urquidy hasn’t pitched in over two weeks, and didn’t finish the regular season strongly. He hasn’t been quite the same pitcher since shoulder trouble in July and August. He has pitched well in previous post seasons, and held the Red Sox to only 1 run over 6 innings in his only start against them.
Rodriguez improved as the season progressed, finishing the season with an ERA of just over three in his last 7 games. His 2 appearances against the Rays were poor (2 ER over 1.2 innings) then better (2 ER over 5 innings). Houston knocked him around twice in quick succession early in the season. He pitches much better away from Fenway.
The offenses are 1 + 2 in team batting in the post season and the three hottest hitters are all Red Sox. The bullpens have been average in this series; it is mainly the starters who have been knocked around. The Red Sox are very strong vs right-handed starters, the Astros less so vs. lefties.
These are two very good offenses and two starters with question marks beside them. I like the total early. Take this game to go over in the first five innings.
|10-17-21||Dodgers v. Braves UNDER 7.5||Top||4-5||Loss||-113||8 h 5 m||Show|
Dodgers (Scherzer, 0-1, 1.46 ERA) vs Braves (Anderson, 1-0, 0.00 ERA)
The Dodgers’ ace Max Scherzer has already rung up 2 starts and a relief appearance, and we are just into the Divisional finals. Start #3 has him paired up against Ian Anderson who continues his hot run as a starter in the post season. He is 3-0 with an ERA of 0.76 in his career, and pitched five scoreless innings against the Brewers. His regular season was solid and he is a very good home starter.
The Dodgers had a bullpen day and a loss yesterday, used eight pitchers, and will need some innings out of Scherzer. Scherzer shut out the Braves over 6 innings in September. If there is a cloud on the horizon, it is his poor final two starts in the regular season. After 3 outings so close together, fatigue could become an issue.
The Dodgers got some hits against Fried but couldn’t do much damage. The Braves were very productive considering their number of hits. The long ball played a role again. The Braves pen which has been very good, held the Dodgers scoreless over 3 innings and will be better rested.
Two questions come to mind. Can Scherzer pitch an effective start with little rest? Can Anderson handle a potent Dodgers offense as he did with the poor-hitting Brewers? Anderson struggled against the Dodgers back in June, allowing 4 runs in 4+ innings.
This is a must win for the Dodgers, and they will be loaded for bear. I think that they will get to the Braves’ pitchers, if not against Anderson, then when facing the bullpen. I’m not convinced that Scherzer will go long or be completely overpowering today. Take the Braves/Dodgers total to go under.
|10-16-21||Dodgers v. Braves UNDER 8||2-3||Win||100||5 h 6 m||Show|
Dodgers (Knebel 0-0, ) vs. Braves (Fried, 1-0, 0.00)
Game 1 in the NL championship series matches Max Fried vs. all comers. Fried has shone this year, especially late in the season and in his magnificent start vs. the Brewers. If anyone can pitch for length vs. the Dodgers, it is he. Knebel is the named starter for the Dodgers, but it will likely be a bullpen game today. Knebel is not unfamiliar with the opener role, and was successful in it in the Dodgers’ last series. He has been highly effective as an opener/reliever this season.
A bullpen day might be alarming for any team but the Dodgers. Relievers collectively have had an ERA of 1.86 in their last 7 games. The Braves pen has also been effective, however they were facing a weak-hitting Brewers team rather than the Giants.
The Dodgers had their moment of offense vs the Giants. The Braves were stymied for the most part by the Brewers’ fine starters, but can score some runs, especially with the long ball.
I like the total in this game, and the best odds are for the first half. The Dodgers have enough options to prevent the game from getting out of hand, and Fried is as good a bet for a low total as there is. Take this game to go under in the first five.
|10-15-21||Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8.5||4-5||Win||100||8 h 21 m||Show|
Red Sox (Sale) vs Astros (Valdes)
If you look at the stats from the last series, the Sox/Astros matchup will likely be decided by the bats. The Red Sox offense is red hot, and the two teams are 1-2 in the post season in offense. Not so for the pitchers; both teams’ ERAs are over 4.
Sox starter Chris Sale struggled in his first postseason start, lasting only 1 inning, and in his previous regular season start. For such a strong starter, he has been historically poor in post season play. The talk is that “some mechanics adjustments have been made”, but it is hard to know what to expect from Sale today.
Valdes didn’t pitch well in his PS start either, nor his previous regular season start, but is very good at home and in previous post season action.
The Astros are a very good home team, and good vs left-handed pitching. Their relievers struggled in the White Sox series. The Red Sox are not the best road team, are poor as a road underdog and average vs. lefties. That said, it is the post season, and one wonders about the value of stats at the moment.
After their last outings, these two starters are wildcards today. The Astros are a favorite, and totals are about average. The Astros dominated the Red Sox this year in regular season play. I am banking on offense and Sale's inability to bounce back today. Take the over in the first five innings.
|10-14-21||Dodgers v. Giants OVER 7||2-1||Loss||-100||14 h 42 m||Show|
Dodgers (Urias) vs Giants (Webb)
Julio Urias, a 20 game winner is 1-0 for the postseason, allowing just 1 run over 5 innings.. He had a very strong finish to the regular season with a 4-0 record and an ERA of 2.20 in September. He twice faced the Giants in July, allowing 2 runs total over 12+ innings. Urias is tried and tested in postseason play.
For the Giants, Logan Webb allowed no runs over 7.2 innings in the most dominant start of this series. This will certainly be the 24 year old’s biggest game. The Giants have not lost against the Dodgers with Webb on the mound. The question is can Webb repeat. He will likely need to, as the Dodgers have had good success against the Giants’ relievers. Plan B, should Webb falter, would be Gausman, who fared poorly in his start.
Everyone and anyone will be available in relief, so bull pen stats are useless in a game like this one. The Giants are historically good against lefties, but this is not the case in recent weeks. There is no doubt that the Dodgers have outhit the Giants by a considerable margin in this series.
A very low total is available for the first half of the game. Lightning or Webb could strike twice, but the second time around might not go quite so smoothly for these two starters. Take the over in the first five innings.
|10-12-21||Astros v. White Sox UNDER 8.5||Top||10-1||Loss||-100||8 h 6 m||Show|
Astros (McCullers JR.) vs White Sox (Rodon)
With the season in the balance, the White Sox look to Carlos Rodon for the equalizer. Rodon has been the White Sox’ best pitcher this year, he just hasn’t been able to pitch much in August and September. His quality has not suffered. In 28 total innings over the two months, he had an ERA of under 2.00. In all likelihood, he will not pitch more than 5 innings, and has little post season history.
Lance McCullers Jr. shut out the White Sox over 6+ innings. This makes 3 wins in a row for McCullers over the Sox this year. He has had 4 days rest and was well-rested coming into the postseason. Plan B is Urquidy should Junior falter. McCullers allows a lot of ground balls, so Houston’s superlative infield defense could play a large factor on Tuesday.
Both sides have shown some offensive muscle in this series, but I am not expecting it early in game 4.
The total is set slightly higher due to the end results in the last two games. I like the total early, with Rodon and McCullers likely still in the game. Take the under in the first five innings on Tuesday.
|10-11-21||Brewers v. Braves OVER 8||0-3||Loss||-105||7 h 33 m||Show|
Milwaukee (Peralta, 10-5, 2.85) vs Atlanta (I. Anderson, 9-5, 3.58)
It has been a low scoring series so far and is likely to continue. We are down to the #3 starters, so there maybe more runs than can be counted on the fingers of one hand on Monday. The Brewers’ Freddie Peralta was an All-star this year and like many All-star pitchers, his second half has not been as successful. Peralta was out with a shoulder injury, and while he has built himself up to good length in his starts, he has really only had 2 fine quality starts since returning. He is 1-2 with an ERA of 4.70 in September. He does pitch well on the road and did shut out the Braves in May. He pitched well in last year’s post season but did not start a game.
Ian Anderson was memorable in last year’s post season, starting 4 games and finishing with a 0.96 ERA. His numbers this year certainly do not match that.He has had a solid season and is 3-0, but with an ERA of 4.39 in September. These starters will be on a very short hook should things go sideways. Atlanta’s bullpen has been very good, and Milwaukee could bring in either of their reserve starters, as they did in game 1.
Neither team is hitting over .200 average, but I still see potential in the Braves’ bats. The Brewers have been in an offensive funk for some time; perhaps we will see a break out this game. Monday’s totals are very low considering these two starters’ September performances. I am wagering on some runs to be scored in the first half. Take the total to go over in the first five innings.
|10-10-21||Astros v. White Sox OVER 8.5||6-12||Win||100||9 h 44 m||Show|
Astros (Garcia, 11-8, 3.00) vs White Sox (Cease, 13-7, 3.91)
The White Sox are 0-4 in recent play-off games, but the return to GR Field offers some relief. The White Sox have a very good home record this year. Dylan Cease is on the firing line today. His last three starts were very good, but he has not fared especially well against the Astros this year. He is a much better pitcher at home, and is well-rested.
Astros rookie Luis Garcia was very good against the White Sox when he last faced them. He had a touch of playoff experience last year, and has been solid of late. He is not as strong a pitcher on the road. He too is well rested.
The White Sox’ bullpen struggled late in the season, and did not impress on Friday night. The Astros bullpen has been better of late and solid in the first two postseason games.
The White Sox ended the season hitting very well, but that has not translated to the play-offs so far. The Astros have an over .300 batting avg in the first two games. They are a good road team but are only 1-4 in Chicago this year.
It is really a toss up between the two pitchers today. Much is made of the White Sox’ abilities at home and Houston is now a slight underdog. I look for the two offenses to have some success today; the White Sox’ bats to wake up and the Astros to continue at their torrid pace. Take this game to go over the total.
|10-09-21||Braves v. Brewers UNDER 7.5||3-0||Win||100||10 h 25 m||Show|
Braves (Fried, 14-7, 3.04) vs Brewers (Woodruff, 9-10, 2.56)
If the first game was anything to go by, runs will be in short supply in this series. It would be hard to see anything different occurring in the 2nd game. Max Fried is on the mound for Atlanta. No one has been better than Fried lately. He is 3-0 with an ERA of 1.90 in his last 7 starts, and has given up only 1 run in 23 innings in his last three starts. He is a leftie, and Milwaukee is only 20-19 against the left this season.
Woodruff has been very sharp this season, but somewhat less so in September. He should be well rested, starting only 4 games in September and only pitching 4 innings in his last start.
Woodruff has had good success at home this season.
I still like the Braves for offense, but with such strong starters, the under looks very appealing. Milwaukee just hasn’t produced of late. The Braves need a win from one of their 2 key pitchers, so they will be all in on Saturday. Any runs scored will likely come late. As in Thursday’s game, take the total to go under in the first five innings.
|10-08-21||Dodgers v. Giants OVER 7||0-4||Loss||-120||10 h 27 m||Show|
Dodgers (Webb, 11-3, 3.03) vs Giants (Buehler, 3-1, 2.47)
Two of the very best teams face off in probably the most talked about series of the post season. The Dodgers, off their walk-off Wild Card victory, will be buoyed up. The Giants have not been able to let their foot off the gas down the stretch either. Both teams have great recent records.
Walker Buehler starts for the Dodgers. He has not been as sharp as he can be, with a very pedestrian record in September of 2-2, 5.40 ERA in 5 starts. His last two starts showed a return to form. He bombed against SF in September allowing 6 runs over 3 innings, and is not quite as effective on the road. He has a fine history in post season play.
Logan Webb starts for the Giants. While Webb has had a banner year, he has no post-season history and 3 of his last 5 starts have not been of good quality.
The Giants had a significant edge in games between the two rivals this year. The Dodgers offense is peaking, although the loss of Muncey hurts. While both bullpens are very strong, the Giants has been lights out in recent games.
This is a tough call for the a winner. I am looking at the total, especially early. These are two very fine starters, but neither pitcher has been at peak performance in recent starts. While all starters are on a short leash in the post season, the total is set low. Take the total to go over in the first five innings
|10-08-21||Braves v. Brewers UNDER 7||1-2||Win||100||9 h 33 m||Show|
Braves (Morton, 14-6, 3.34) vs Brewers (Burns, 11-5, 2.43)
Milwaukee clinched a playoff spot weeks ago, and hasn’t impressed since, winning only 4 of their last 15 games. If nothing else they will be well rested. The Brewers have a trio of formidable young starters. Corbin Burns is the first one up. He is 2-0 in September with a 2.42 ERA in 4 starts. Burns is slightly worse starting at home. Burns is capable of and may have to pitch for length. The Brewers have a very good closer but the rest of their bullpen has been pitching to a very poor ERA 0f 6.75 in their last 7 games.
Equally concerning is the Brewers’ serious lack of offense. Never a powerhouse, they have been in the very bottom of the league in runs scored and average in the last weeks.
The Braves peaked at the right time. Their offense has come around, and they are 8-2 in their last 10 games. They are a good road team. Veteran Charlie Morton is on the mound. He has a 2.43 ERA in his last 7 starts, and has allowed only 3 runs in the last 15+ innings. The Braves’ bullpen has been very sharp with an ERA of 2.81 in their last 7 games.
Burns is good enough to control a game on his own, but Charlie Morton has been equally effective of late. The total is low and rightly so. I still think it may be good value. Take the total to go under in the first five innings.
|10-06-21||Cardinals v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5||1-3||Win||100||14 h 36 m||Show|
Cards (Wainwright) vs Dodgers (Scherzer)
Two very fine pitchers, both of a certain age. Scherzer overpowered the Cards in September, with 6 innings of 0 ER, 13 strikeout ball. He has been almost unhittable since joining the Dodgers, with two exceptions; he has allowed a run an inning, 10 total, in his last two starts.
Adam Wainwright, post 40, has had an exemplary season. He is now a finesse and edges kind of guy, and has been very consistent. He too had an off game is his last three. He beat the Dodgers in September, and held them to one run in his first five innings. He was 8-2 on the road this year.
What are we to make of Scherzer’s last two starts, and Wainwright’s wobble? Both pitchers are consummate professionals. It is unlikely that there will be a threepeat in Scherzer’s case. That said, the Dodgers and Cards have very good and deep bullpens should either struggle. In a sudden-death game, no one is immune from the hook, as we saw with Cole and the Yankees.
I am looking at the total in the first half, and banking on both starters to bounce back to regular form. Take this game to go under in the first five innings.
|10-05-21||Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 8||2-6||Push||0||13 h 34 m||Show|
Yankees (Cole, 16-8, 3.23) vs Red Sox (Eovaldi, 11-9, 3.75)
When the game is for all the marbles, you want your ace on the mound. The trouble is Gerrit Cole is not looking like an ace at the moment, and it will be a testament to his abilities if he pitches well on Tuesday. In his last three games, he has given up 15 runs in 17+ innings and he has not been successful at all in Fenway Park. The Yankees do have a very good set of relievers if Cole should falter.
It is the end of the season and starters are worn down. Eovaldi was pushed around by the Yankees, lasting just 2+ innings two starts ago, was average in the start before that, but was sharp his last time out with 6 innings or shutout ball. The Red Sox’ bullpen is sub par at the moment, but for this game, every pitcher will be available. This is of more benefit to the Red Sox than the Yankees.
The Yankees have some key injuries. Three infielders are out, including DJ Lemahieu. They have hit for low average all season, particularly against the right. Other than home-runs, the Red Sox have significantly out-hit the Yankees this season. However a hot Judge and Stanton can balance out the advantage in a hurry.
I am wagering on the total in the first half. I don’t think we can expect a quality start from both of these starters, and both teams can score some big runs in a hurry. Take the total to go over in the first 5 innings.
|10-01-21||Angels v. Mariners OVER 7.5||2-1||Loss||-111||11 h 15 m||Show|
Angels (L. Suarez, 7-8, 3.86) vs Mariners (Gonzales, 10-5, 4.00)
Here is a game that really matters. The surprising Mariners can play their way into a wild card spot if they continue their stellar play this weekend. Gonzales has been sharp in his last three starts. Jose Suarez gave up 4 in 5 to the Mariners previously, but has otherwise been solid. Both pitchers will want to go out on a positive note.
The odds for the early total vary widely today. Both teams do well against lefties and both teams can score some runs. Mariners will be intent on winning, and the Angels, well who doesn’t want to be a spoiler. Take the total in the first 5 to go over 3 ½. Better jump on this one.
|10-01-21||Phillies v. Marlins UNDER 7.5||5-0||Win||100||10 h 32 m||Show|
Phillies (R. Suarez) vs. Marlins (Alcantara, 9-14, 3.09)
Pity Sandy Alcantara. He has thrown over 200 innings, with nearly a strike-out an inning, and a WHIP of 1.07 and he ends up 9-14 for the season. Such are your fortunes when you play for the lightest hitting team in the league. He is 1-2 with an ERA of 2.39 in September, and pitches well at home but seldom wins.
The Phillies are officially done for the season. It is hard to know how they will react, but I expect Ranger Suarez to continue to come out with guns a’blazing. Suarez has been sensational since switching to starting. All he did was throw a 9 inning shut-out in his last start.
The Phillies are a better hitting team but will their heart be in it on Saturday? Their bullpen has been very poor of late, probably a good reason why they are not moving on.
I like the early total today. I have won with Suarez for many games now, and believe that Alcantara will want to finish the season strongly. Take the total to go under in the first five innings.
|09-30-21||Tigers v. Twins UNDER 8.5||10-7||Loss||-103||11 h 27 m||Show|
Tigers (Skubal,8-12, 4.13) vs Twins (Ryan, 2-1, 2.45)
Neither team is going anywhere, but the pitching matchup is interesting. Skubal has thrown a lot of innings for a young starter, and his innings count seems to have been been limited. It seems a successful tactic as he is 2.07 ERA in September but pitching only 3 or 4 innings a start. He has struggled on the road this year. The Tigers’ bullpen has been surprisingly good lately, so Skubal’s short outings may not be an issue.
Joe Ryan is only a few games into his career as a starter, but he has impressed. In his last three starts he has given up only 3 runs in 17 innings pitched and has a very lowwhip of 0.59. Detroit has not yet faced Ryan. The Twins bullpen has also been very good in their last 7 games.
Neither team has been much for offense of late. Detroit has lost 2 straight against the Tigers so that might inspire them. I am wagering that not a lot of runs will be scored, especially early. Take the total to go under in the first five innings.
|09-28-21||Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 8||4-6||Win||100||10 h 22 m||Show|
Diamondbacks (Weaver, 3-6, 4.38) vs Giants (Webb, 10-3, 3.04)
As great a season as the Giants have had, they still haven’t clinched first in their division so they will be up for this game.. Meanwhile, the D-backs are dreaming of ‘22 and tee-times. Luke Weaver starts for Arizona. He is 1-3 with an ERA of 4.15 in September and just 4 starts back from a significant IL stay. He has been poor on the road with a 7.94 ERA this year. Logan Webb has had a good year, but has struggled in 2 of his last 3 starts, allowing 11 runs in his last 3 games. Fatigued, possibly.
Both bullpens are effective of late, perhaps surprising for the D-backs, but nothing new for the Giants.
The offenses couldn’t be more different. San Francisco, 3rd in the league, has close to double the run output in the last 3 weeks. The Diamondbacks road stats are woeful. The Giants, at home after a day off, are a heavy favorite.
I am wagering on the total today. Weaver’s road record and the Giants offense is a recipe for runs. Webb has given up some runs as well in his last starts. Take today’s total to go over in the first five innings.
|09-28-21||Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 7||2-6||Win||100||12 h 45 m||Show|
Brewers (Woodruff, 9-10, 2.52) vs Cardinals (Wainwright, 16-7, 3.05)
This is a fascinating call. The most overachieving team in the league versus the most underachieving division leader face off for the second series in 2 weeks. The Brewers have Woodruff on the mound. In his last start, he pitched 6 innings of 1 run ball against the Cardinals. In his previous two starts, he was not quite as sharp and has an ERA of 4.00 in September. He is slightly worse for the season at home. He faces Adam Wainwright, off his worst start in months, but who has been nothing less than remarkable this season. Wainwright is 8-5 with an ERA of 2.72 at home.
The Brewers are in the dumpster as far as offense over the last few weeks. They presently sit 26th in the league. They did break out slightly vs the Mets, but there must be real concerns for the Milwaukee bats at this point in the season. The Cardinals are a surprising first in the league in offense, along with their terrific starting pitching and a shut-down bullpen with an ERA of 2.86 in their last 7 games. The Brewers’ pen has been worse than usual at 4.44ERA.
Both pitchers, and especially Wainwright have pitched a ton of innings this year, and we might be seeing some slight signs of fatigue in their latest starts. The total is very low, perhaps too low. Considering the Cards hot bats, and Milwaukee’s sub par bullpen, I’m taking this game to go over the total. Enjoy the ballgame!
|09-25-21||Braves v. Padres OVER 8.5||10-8||Win||100||8 h 49 m||Show|
Atlanta (Ynoa, 4-5, 3.43) vs San Diego (Velasquez, 3-8, 6.23)
The struggling Padres picked up Velasquez for some much needed starting help. So far it hasn’t worked. His last start was only three days ago but it only lasted 1 inning. Since joining the Padres, he has given up more than a run an inning in 2 starts. Considering how hard the Padres’ bullpen has been used (5 innings per game over the last 7), we may see more of Velasquez today than would be ideal.
Atlanta rookie Ynoa has delivered short adequate starts in September but his ERA has slipped to 5.12. The Braves’ pen has been lightly used and very effective of late with an ERA of 2.66 in their last seven games.
The Padres’ bats are also struggling, especially in the last week. The Braves, still in line for the play-offs, have been top-three in offense this week. The Braves are a very strong road team, 5-1 in their last 6 games, and good against right-handers. Considering Velasquez’s and the Padres relievers’ struggles, I am wagering on the total in the first half. Watch this game go over the total for the first five innings.
|09-24-21||Mariners v. Angels UNDER 8.5||6-5||Loss||-109||11 h 31 m||Show|
Mariners (Gilbert, 6-5, 4.74) vs Angels (Suarez, 7-8, 3.67)
A pair of achieving youngsters are on the mound in the Mariners/ Angels match up. Rookie Logan Gilbert has settled down to be a very strong starter, especially in September. He is 1-0, with an ERA of 2.01 in 4 starts, and has worked his way up to 6 and 7 innings lately. The Angels have had no luck against Gilbert. 23 year old lefty, Jose Suarez is 2-1 in his last three games, giving up 5 runs over his last 20+ innings. The Mariners have hit Suarez well this season.
The Mariners are still in the thick of the wild card race, and have won 5 straight. Their bullpen has been lightly used and effective of late. They are a very good road team and solid vs left-handers.
The Rangers are 1-6, and basically out in the pasture, looking over the fence. Their hitting is in the bottom 10% of the league at the moment, and they struggle against the right. Add to that, an overused and ineffective bullpen (5.67 of late) and you do not have a recipe for success.
I like many aspects in this game but the total in the first half stands out. Take the Under in the first five innings.
|09-24-21||Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 9||8-5||Win||105||5 h 5 m||Show|
Cardinals (Happ, 9-8, 6.02) vs Cubs (Steele, 3-3, 4.20)
The Cards and Cubs meet up for a double header on Friday. Happ starts the first game for the Cardinals. It looked like Happ had re-found his form in August, finishing the month with a 2.22 ERA. September has been much crueler; he had an 8.22 Era in 4 games. He still delivers 5 innings a game.
Justin Steele has been effective in September, allowing 9 runs over 14 innings. He averages 4 to 5 innings per start. The problem for Steele is that the Cubs’ bullpen has been very poor (6.61 Era in the last 7 games), and short starts won’t win many games in Chicago.
The Cardinals are the hottest team in baseball and have been scoring a ton of runs. The Cubs have been pretty average in offense and are 2-8 in their last ten games. Basically going through the motions. The Cards are a very good road favorite, and a strong 22-13 vs left-handers.
I like the Cards’ chances here but Happ can give up a lot of runs in a hurry. The total is average for 7 innings. Take the total to go over.
|09-23-21||Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 8||8-5||Loss||-102||7 h 44 m||Show|
Cardinals (Wainwright, 16-7, 2.89) vs Brewers (Houser, 9-6, 3.43)
The Cards are the hottest team in baseball, whipped the Brewers on Wednesday, and are 10-0 in their last ten games. And they have their ace Adam Wainwright, the ageless one, on the mound. The only thing that stands in the way of a 4 game sweep of the Brewers is Adrian Houser. His last start was his worst in some time (4 ER over 4 innings), but his two previous were shut-outs of 6 and 9 inning duration. This has the makings of a real pitcher’s duel and, a rarity this late in the season, both teams have very sharp bullpens.
The Cards, modest hitting usually, are punching well above their weight, while Milwaukee is in the doldrums. Their collective batting avg. is below .200 of late, and they have won only 2 of their last 6 games. The Cards are a very good road team, and are on a terrific roll at the moment. They have won their way into wild-card potential.
I like the Cards here, but I like the Total more. Take the total to go under.
|09-20-21||Orioles v. Phillies UNDER 8||2-0||Win||100||8 h 1 m||Show|
Orioles (Means: 5-7, 3.41) vs Phillies (R.Suarez 6-4, 1.50)
The Orioles have a lamentable record and you don’t need to look further than their pitching for the reason. John Means has been as close as you can find to a starter with acceptable stats, but with a bullpen that struggles to the tune of 8.63/ L7, a winning record is unlikely. Note that Means’ WHIP is a solid 1.00 for the season.
Ranger Suarez is as good as anyone since converting to “starter-dom” and has stretched out to 6 innings per outing. He is a sparkling 5-0 with an ERA of 1.60 at home this season.
Let’s bypass the bullpens and look at the first half today. Neither team has a successful record vs. lefties and both pitchers tend to be strong early. Neither team has experience vs. the opposing pitcher.
While the total is low for the first half, I think it is a safe bet today. Take the under in the first 5 innings.
|09-16-21||Astros v. Rangers OVER 8.5||12-1||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
Astros (Valdez, 10-5, 3.26) vs. Rangers (Otto, 0-1, 6.92)
The Astros are comfortably in first in their division, while the Rangers are firmly in the cellar. That said, the Rangers are not going with a whimper. At 7-3 in their last 10 games, it is the offense driving this recent success. The Astros (6-4) are always dominant in run production, sitting 2nd in the league at the moment.
The Rangers’ rookie, Glen Otto, was brought down to earth in his last start, allowing 8 runs in 3+ innings. Previously he had been sharp in his first two starts, including five innings of shutout pitching against the Astros.
Framber Valdez has been effective most of the season, but his last two starts have not been remarkable. After pitching strongly in August his ERA has ballooned to 6.55 in September.
As one might expect, the numbers favor the Astros, and they are a huge favorite today. The total is more promising. The Astros were shutout by Otto, and that must be an irritant for these high-flyers. Many rookies start with a flourish, then stumble, and that may be the case today. Valdez could bounce back, but he does give up runs early. The total for the first half is low considering these two offenses. Take the OVER in the first five innings.
|09-15-21||Cubs v. Phillies UNDER 9||5-6||Loss||-107||8 h 38 m||Show|
Cubs (Mills, 6-6, 4.35) vs Phillies (R. Suarez, 6-4, 1.38)
What a find the Phillies have in Suarez! Since shifting from reliever/closer, he has been razor sharp. In his last three starts he has allowed 2 runs over 16+ innings. His opponent Alec Mills has been up and down in his last three games, dominating the Reds and White Sox while struggling against Pittsburgh. Looking closer, he is usually a safe bet in his first 5 innings.
The Phillies offense is not at its best and their bullpen is very poor of late. The Cubs struggle on the road and will not have much success vs. Suarez. I like the under today, but only in the first half. Take the Cubs and Phillies to go under in the first five innings.
|09-14-21||Indians v. Twins UNDER 6.5||3-1||Win||105||9 h 12 m||Show|
Indians (McKenzie, 4-6, 4.44) vs Twins (Ryan, 1-1, 0.42)
The Twins used 6 relievers in their loss to the Yankees on Monday, and now face Cleveland in a double header. Rookie Joe Ryan threw 7 innings of shutout ball against the same Indians in his last start, which was only the second start in his career. Any relation to Nolan? Maybe he can give the Twins the innings they need on Tuesday..
The Indians had a day off to give their collective heads a shake and try and recover from their 2-8 bad dream. They also have a fine young right-hander pitching on Tuesday. Tristan McKenzie has been very sharp in his last three games, allowing 1 run each outing over 19 innings.
The Indians have the better bullpen, are faster, commit less errors, and are decent on the road. There is just one problem; they have the worst offense in the league of late. The Twins aren’t a powerhouse either and are only a modest home team. In the strange facts category, they are only 5-18 when playing on a Tuesday.
It appears neither team wants to win, so lets take the Total. Under 6.5 is available in this 7 inning start. Considering how these two youngsters have handled themselves and their ability to pitch some length, take the Indians and Twins to go UNDER in Game 1.
|09-13-21||Cardinals v. Mets UNDER 8||7-0||Win||100||12 h 28 m||Show|
Cardinals (Wainwright, 15-7, 2.98) vs. Mets (Hill, 6-6, 3.82)
The Mets and Cardinals are long-shots for a wild card spot, so this is still a significant series. Neither team has been able to break out of the .500 winning % range and make a run. It is Adam Wainwright vs Rich Hill on Monday. Wainwright has been one of the best in the league this season and shows no real signs of slowing down. He allowed 4 runs over 8+ innings in last outing which, for him, is a poor start. He is 6-1 with a 1.57 ERA over his last 7.
Rich Hill has been a bit of a surprise for the Mets, especially in September, with an ERA of 0.61 in 12 innings pitched over two starts. He has been very dependable and hasn’t given up more than 3 ER in 8 starts.
The Mets’ pen has been steady all year and even better in their last games. Where there has also been improvement is in run production, although less so against right-handers.
The Cardinals have been very soft at the plate, especially in the last three weeks. Their bullpen is usually average and has been slightly better last 7. They are effective vs. lefties.
It is a tough call on a winner in this game so I’m looking at the total. Both starters have been very effective and pitch for length. The total is not high considering the quality of the starters. Take the Cards and Mets to go Under.
|09-12-21||Red Sox v. White Sox UNDER 9||1-2||Win||101||3 h 53 m||Show|
Red Sox (Pivetta, 9-7, 4.67) vs White Sox (Lynn, 10-4, 2.59)
With a good lead in the AL Central, the White Sox are comfortable, but for Boston it is red alert in their hunt for a wild card spot in the very competitive AL East.
Both starters have missed a start; Pivetta with Covid issues, and Lynn with a long-standing knee inflammation. Pivetta has struggled in August at 1-3, and 5.27 ERA. Lynn is coming off his worst start, allowing 7 runs over 5 innings. It will be interesting to see how these two starters respond.
Both of these teams can hit. Boston in particular has been potent lately. Both teams are very strong against righties. Pivetta has given up 4 runs in five innings or less in his last three starts. With both starters’ layoffs, a little rust is to be expected. I am looking at the early total today. Take the Sox’ game to go under in the first five innings.
|09-11-21||Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8||4-6||Win||100||8 h 17 m||Show|
Reds (Castillo, 7-15, 4.20) vs Cardinals (Mikolas, 0-2, 5.06)
The Reds padded their lead over the Cards yesterday, and will look to add on today. Luis Castillo starts for the Reds. Castillo has pitched better than his won/lost record would suggest, with solid starts of some length. He lost to the Cards a couple of starts ago but only gave up a pair of runs.
His opponent is Mike Mikolas. Mikolas has yet to find his groove after a very long stretch on the DL, giving up 11 runs in12+innings pitched. He did stretch out his last start to 5 innings.
The Cards bullpen has been solid but did stumble in the 9th yesterday. The Reds’ pen has been a stumbling block all season and has an ERA of 6.20 in their last 7 games.
The Reds have the superior offense in theory although they have under-achieved of late. The Cards, after a brief power surge,have been about normal, meaning low scoring, in the past week.
The Reds are a good road team, 50-38 as a favorite and solid against right-handers. Mikolas has yet to show signs of improvement. The wind is blowing out today. Take this game to GO OVER THE TOTAL.
|09-11-21||Giants v. Cubs UNDER 10.5||15-4||Loss||-107||5 h 36 m||Show|
Giants (Gausman, 13-5, 2.58) vs Cubs, Davies, 6-10, 5.16)
The Giants are on a tear, winning Friday 6-1 on a bullpen day. Eight pitchers combined for 1 run! Pretty well the only team as hot as them are their opponents today; the surprising Chicago Cubs. Why have the Cubs been winning? Bats and bullpen. They have been hitting above their weight for a few weeks and their relievers have been extremely effective in their last 7 games, with an ERA of 1.05. There is a caveat here; the pen has been averaging 4.9 innings a game of late which is unsustainable. Note that today the bullpen struggled and the offense was subpar. This is more typical of the Cubs this season. Zack Davies starts for the Cubs. It has been a poor season for Davies. He is 1-4, 6.70 since the All-star break, and has struggled at home. His starts have been very short lately, averaging about 4 innings. He can pitch effectively, but the poor starts are becoming more frequent.
Kevin Gausman starts for the Giants. He isn’t pitching for quite the same length nor is he quite as effective at 4-2, 4.56 ERA since the All-star break, but he is still one of the premier starters in baseball. He is very sharp on the road (7-2, 1.95 ERA).
The Giants bullpen has been consistent all year, and has a 2.23 ERA lately. The Giants have also ridden their pen hard to the tune of 4.62 innings per game, and with eight pitchers used on Friday it is concerning.The Giants have a solid offense but it is better than usual in the past couple of weeks. They are very good away, versus right-handers, you name it, they are good at it.
Let's look at the total. I don’t see the Cubs scoring a lot of runs vs. Gausman, and while Davies was roughed up for 6 runs last start, he gave up 2 and 1 in his previous outings. The total is very high at 10.5. Take the Giants and Cubs to go under, even considering the weather.
|09-10-21||Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8||0-3||Win||100||15 h 43 m||Show|
Padres (Musgrove, 10-8, 2.87) vs Dodgers (Urias, 16-3, 3.11)
The Padres are now a long shot for any post-season activities other than golf. The Dodgers are still in the hunt for first in the NL West. It is hard to say who is the Dodgers’ ace but certainly their winning-est pitcher is on the hill on Friday. Urias has been an eye-opener this season and shows no sign of slowing down. He has a 5-0 record since the All-star break and hasn’t given up more than two runs in 8 starts. Urias’s starts aren’t the longest, but he has already pitched 150+ innings which is more than double than in any other year in his career. Urias is supported by by the Dodgers’ very fine pen, with a 1.69 ERA in the last 7 games.
Facing him is Joe Musgrove, no slouch as a starter himself. In three starts, he has given up only 3 runs in 20+ innings, including a full game shut out. San Diego’s normally good bullpen has not been as sharp of late, with an ERA of 4.30.
The Padres are 3-3 in their last 6 games. They are 24 -16 versus lefties, but only 30-34 on the road. The Dodgers are lights out as a home team, and 61-38 vs. right-handed starters. They have great starters, a terrific pen, so why aren’t they leading the NL West? Because their once potent offense has stumbled into the nether regions of MLB team batting stats in recent weeks. In fact both teams are struggling in average and run production..
Two quality starters and two underachieving lineups. As of now the total is set at 81/2, which seems high to me. Take the Padres and Dodgers to go under on Friday evening.
|09-09-21||Rockies v. Phillies UNDER 8.5||4-3||Win||100||12 h 36 m||Show|
Rockies (Senzatela, 4.16, 4-9) vs. Phillies (Suarez, 6-4, 1.38)
The Rockies are going nowhere this year and at 3-7 in their last 10 games they are playing like it. The Phillies are still in the mix for a wild card spot but wins are now of the essence. Ranger Suarez has been a bright light since he switched to the starter’s role. He is now regularly pitching into the 6th inning and his ERA is super sharp at 1.38. He has only allowed 2 runs over 17 innings in 3 starts.
Senzatela has also been solid lately although his record and the team record will not show it. He is 2-1 with an ERA of 3.11 since the All-star break and one of the few bright spots in the Rockies lineup.
The Rockies road stats are astoundingly poor. They are 5 and 12 as a road underdog, and 18- 50 on the road. The Phillies are 39-28 at home, and 7-1 as a strong home favorite. They are very successful against right-handed pitchers.
The offensive stats for the two teams are remarkably similar from average to runs scored to slugging %. They are also both struggling, with the 20th and 21st best offenses in MLB this past week. I am going to bypass bullpens today and just look at the first half. Based on both teams’ poor run production, and a lack of experience and/or success with the pair of strong starters, I am looking for the total to go under in the first five innings.
|09-09-21||Royals v. Orioles UNDER 8.5||6-0||Win||101||8 h 11 m||Show|
Royals (Hernandez, 5-1, 3.57) vs. Orioles (Means, 5-6, 3.47)
With little to play for but pride and salaries, KC is 3-7, and the Orioles, slightly better at 5-5. Carlos Hernandez starts for the Royals. He has been a bright light this season, and now has 11 starts under his belt. He is 2-0 in his last three starts, allowing only 3 runs in 19 innings. His opponent John Means had a no hitter in May, and has been steady since return from the DL. He has allowed 7 runs over 17+ innings in his last three starts. The Orioles have not been kind to Means with a 7-14 record when he is on the mound.
The Orioles are woeful at home, and in the rare times they are a home favorite, equally bad. In the weird facts category, they appear to not enjoy playing on Thursdays, going 2-10. Their bullpen usually struggles but, last night aside, has been better lately. KC is poor on the road, but better vs lefties. They apparently don’t mind playing on Thursdays, with a record of 7-9!
Neither offense is particularly potent, and today’s starters are about the best these two teams can offer. Last night’s game featured a very high total but I don’t think that will be repeated today. The under has featured in both of these starters’ games, and that is what I expect today. Royals and Orioles to go under.
|09-08-21||White Sox v. A's OVER 8.5||1-5||Loss||-100||11 h 39 m||Show|
White Sox (Keuchel, 8-8, 5.21) vs. Athletics (Montas, 11-9, 3.68)
The Sox and A’s are back at it today as Keuchel faces Montas. Keuchel has been inconsistent at best with only a rare quality start. He won against the A’s in August but that was the exception. The A’s batters have had considerable success against him in the past. He was 1-3 in August with a miserable 7.43 ERA, and has been poor on the road. Facing him is Frankie Montas. With a pair of 7 inning shutouts in his last 3 starts, Montas has been sharp lately, and pitches for length, something the A’s need desperately. Their bullpen has been overworked and pounded mercilessly in their last games.
The White Sox have scored a ton of runs lately, and the A’s offense has been pulling its weight. The A’s are very good against lefties, which is bad news for Keuchel. The White Sox are good against righties and have had some success against Montas.
I am looking at the total today. With the combination of Keuchel’s woes and the A’s inept bullpen plus both teams’ respective abilities vs. right and left, take the total to go over today.
|09-07-21||White Sox v. A's OVER 9||6-3||Push||0||10 h 60 m||Show|
White Sox (Lambert, 0-1,5.40) vs. A’s (Kaprielian, 7-4, 3.87)
Off a loss, and with an off day, the A’s need to change their feeble ways to keep any hopes of a wild card spot alive. Their fine rookie, James Kaprielian is on the mound, only he hasn’t been so fine lately. His ERA has regressed each month since the season opened. He has given up 11 runs over 13 innings in his last three starts. The home run ball (8 in his last 4 games) has hurt him badly, and his expected start length is only 4 to 5 inning.
The White Sox are having starting pitcher injury woes, which is likely why Triple A call up Jimmy Lambert is starting. He has given up 4 runs over 6 innings as a starter, so look for a very short outing today.
Both teams will likely rely on their bullpens to a greater extent today. This is OK for the White Sox and very bad news for the A’s. The Athletics’ pen has a monstrous ERA of 8.07 in their last 7 games.
As far as offense goes, The White Sox are one of the more potent teams in the MLB and the A’s are hitting above their weight lately.
I am looking at the total in this game. The White Sox have scored more than 10 runs in 4 of the last 9 games. The A’s have allowed 43 runs in their last five games! I had to check my math twice.. I am taking today’s game to go over the total.
|09-06-21||Phillies v. Brewers OVER 7||12-0||Win||100||3 h 57 m||Show|
Phillies (Wheeler, 11-9, 3.01) vs Brewers (Woodruff, 9-7, 2.35)
Here are two teams still in the hunt. The Phillies have been hot and send out their ace, Zack Wheeler today. Wheeler has been in the run for the Cy Young award and has pitched the most innings in the league, but he shows all of the signs of a tired pitcher in his last starts. He is 3-3 in August with an era of 4.81. It gets worse. He has given up 15 runs in the last 20+ innings. He has been less successful on the road.
Brandon Woodruff is on the mound for the Brewers. Since a blip some starts ago, Woodruff has been very sharp, allowing only 1 run over 12 innings in his last 2 starts. He is excellent at home and in day games. The Phillies have had no success against Woodruff.
The Brewers are not a great home team, but they have dominated right-handed pitchers to the tune of 66-39. One issue today is that their usually sound bullpen has struggled mightily in their last 7 games. The Phillies offense has been potent in recent weeks, and are also successful against the right. Their bullpen has been much better with an ERA of 2.84 in their last 7 games.
These two teams haven’t faced each other since May when the Phillies swept the Brewers. I expect the Brewers are looking for a little payback this series. I like Woodruff in this game, but the Brewers’ relief tumble scares me off a bit. The under for the first five innings is low, and with Wheeler being very average of late, seems like a good bet. Take the total to go over in the first five innings.
|09-01-21||Astros v. Mariners OVER 8.5||0-1||Loss||-110||5 h 6 m||Show|
Astros (Odorizzi: 6-6, 4.46) vs Mariners (Gilbert: 5-5, 5.44)
Houston was shut out last night. Kikuchi surprised me with an unexpected return to pre-allstar form. Rookie Logan Gilbert is pitching for the Mariners, and any surprises are far more unlikely. Gilbert has struggled mightily; in his last 3 starts he has given up 19 runs in 12+ innings. He has been poor at home, and was absolutely pummeled by the Astros just 10 days ago.
Odorrizzi starts for the Astros today. He is 3-2 in August and has allowed 7 runs in his last 15+
innings. He is not a good road starter and has struggled against the right.
The Astros have the edge in offense, and tend to prey upon struggling right-handers. Let us take the bullpens out of the equation, and wager on the first half. Take the Astros/ Mariners total to go over in the first five innings.
|09-01-21||Cardinals v. Reds OVER 7||5-4||Win||111||3 h 58 m||Show|
Cardinals (Mikolas: 0-1, 2.70) vs Reds (Miley: 11-4, 2.74)
The Reds, still in the hunt for a wild card spot, have lost 3 in a row, and it turns to Wade Miley to slap on a band-aid before things get out of hand. Miley has been terrific for the Reds, 3-0 in August, whilegiving up only 2 runs in his last three starts. He has a 7-2 record at home. His opponent today is Miles Mikolas, a recent returnee from a serious stretch on the DL. The early returns on Mikolas are very promising. He has given up 4 runs over 13+ innings in his first three starts. The Reds are one of the best hitting teams around, and to date, Mikolas has only faced the Pirates twice, so it might be a little early to jump on his bandwagon. In addition, the usually dependable Cards’ bullpen has not been as good. The Reds pen is always a sore spot on an otherwise strong team.
The total has gone under far more than average for these two teams, leading to an unnaturally low one today. The Reds bats will be hungry today. Take the first game of the Card/Reds doubleheader to go OVER.
|08-31-21||Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5||Top||2-3||Win||100||7 h 27 m||Show|
Braves (Morton:12-5, 3.60) vs Dodgers (Buehler (13-2, 2.02)
This is a must series for both teams. The Dodgers took their eye off the ball, lost 2 of 3 to Colorado, and were limited to 7 runs total. They have their big three on the mound against the Braves, starting with Walker Buehler. Buehler is as good a starter as you will find in the MLB. In his last three games he has allowed 3 runs in 21+ innings. He has an exceptional home record and is solid vs. both right and left. His mound opponent is no slouch. 37 years old Morton is still bringing it. He has been dominant on the road, and aside from a poorish start against the Yankees, allowing 2 runs or less while pitching an average of 6 innings per start.
These are two surging teams. Atlanta struggled against the Yankees and the Dodgers vs Colorado, but otherwise, winning has become a habit. The Dodgers surpass the Braves slightly in most categories from runs scored to relief ERA. It is hard to bet against the Dodgers so I am looking at the total. It is surprisingly high, so take the total to go under.
|08-28-21||Reds v. Marlins UNDER 7.5||1-6||Win||100||11 h 54 m||Show|
Red (Gutierrez) vs Marlins (Alcantara)
Saturday’s Reds/Marlins game features Vlad. Gutierrez and Sandy Alcantara, two very good 25 year old starters. These two pitchers faced off in their last starts just a week ago, resulting in a very well-pitched 3-1 Reds win. Alcantara has been consistent and solid all season but it doesn’t ever seem to show in the win column. In his last three starts, he allowed 2 or less runs, delivered a total of 22 innings pitched and only won one of three. Largely this is caused by Miami’s soft offense. In yesterday’s column, I described them as the 98 lb. weakling of the MLB and they proved me right, losing to the Reds 6-0.
Rookie Gutierrez (9-4, 3.68) has been equally effective, but has had the run support. He is 5-1, with an ERA of 2.95 in his last seven starts. Gutierrez has the mighty Reds bats to support him, which is good because one can’t always count on Cincinnati’s relievers. The one negative aspect with the Reds is their bullpen. Luckily Gutierrez has delivered length as well as wins this season.
The total is set quite low, but I still think it is the right wager. Take Red/ Marlins to go under the total.
|08-28-21||Red Sox v. Indians UNDER 9.5||5-3||Win||100||9 h 56 m||Show|
Red Sox (Eovaldi) vs Indians (Quantrill)
Th Indians lost to The Red Sox last night but have played well lately. They have Cal Quantrill (4-1, 3.44) a good young right-handed pitcher on the mound on Saturday. He is 1-0 in his last 3 games but has given up only 5 runs in 18 innings. The only problem with Quantrill is the rest of the Indians. They have a team record of 6-10 with him as a starter.
Boston has Nathan Eovaldi (10-8, 3.66) starting. He has also been very solid, allowing only 3 runs in 19 innings. Of note, Eovaldi is a much different animal on the road, with a 5.02 ERA.
Cleveland is not a team that will commonly out-hit anyone, particularly the Red Sox. They have a reliable bullpen who have been extra sharp (1.95 ERA) in their last 7 games. The Red Sox pen has not excelled of late.
Boston is just 5-5 in their last 10 games and have now been passed by the Yankees for 2nd in their division. They have had some very high totals in runs scored in the past while which might account for the high total today. Certainly these two starters and Cleveland’s bullpen don’t warrant it.
As you might have guessed, I am wagering on the total. Take Boston and Cleveland to go under.
|08-26-21||Royals v. Mariners OVER 8||6-4||Win||100||11 h 4 m||Show|
Royals (Brad Keller) vs. Mariners (Kikuchi)
At 7-3 in their last 10 games, Seattle has closed the gap to one game behind the slumping A’s. KC, also 7-3, is playing for pride at this point but doing a pretty good job of it. Every series is critical for the Mariners, and they need today’s starter Kikuchi to return to his pre-Allstar form. He is off a very poor start, and has struggled with pitch effectiveness of late. He is 1-1 with a 5.50 ERA in August, and has a poor home record this year.
Brad Keller (not to be confused with the other Keller I am wagering on today) is 8-12 this year with an ERA of 5.43. At 2-3 and an ERA of 3.43 in his last 7 games he has shown a marked improvement of late. He tends to pitch better on the road but struggles vs. RHB.
The Mariners favor a right handed pitcher and are a solid home team. KC struggles on the road, but is good vs left-handed pitching. The Royals’ relief corps have been especially sharp in their last 7 games, while The Mariner’s bullpen has struggled lately.
Today’s question is: is this the day that Kikuchi rights the ship? Second question: will Keller continue his winning ways? The total today is low. I am wagering that the answer to at least one of these questions is no. Take this game to go over the total.
|08-26-21||Yankees v. A's UNDER 8.5||7-6||Loss||-100||10 h 28 m||Show|
Yankees (Taillon) vs A’s (Kaprielian)
The Yankees are 10-0. The slumping Athletics have lost 9 of 12. Let us sidestep the issue of who wins, who loses, and look at the total. Kaprielian, Oakland’s starter has 2 of the A’s recent wins. He has allowed only 6 runs in his last 16 innings pitched. The Yankees, other than Gallo, have struggled when facing him.
Taillon, 4-0 in his last 7 starts, has a sparkling 1.99 ERA in that time. The A’s have not had much success against him. The Yankees pen has been in its usual fine form, however Oakland’s usually dependable relievers have struggled.
I like the TOTAL in the first 5 innings to go UNDER today.
|08-26-21||Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 8.5||7-11||Loss||-104||10 h 34 m||Show|
Cardinals (Mikolas) vs Pirates (Keller)
The two starters on Thursday are both finding their way in the MLB, but for very different reasons. Keller was sent to the Minors after a very poor stretch early in the season. Mikolas has started only two games this season and also missed all of 2020 due to injury. In his first start back since May he threw for 5 innings giving up 0 runs on 2 hits. The same game was Mitch Keller’s best start of the season. He also threw for 5 innings and also gave up no runs. Keller’s stats are shaky, but since his return he has shown steady improvement.
The light-hitting Cards are a powerhouse when compared to the Pirates. Pittsburgh has the lowest runs-scored output in the MLB. Their other stats are equally poor; they are 11-21 as a home underdog, and 36-52 vs the right. Their bullpen has been better than usual at a 3.49 ERA in their last 7 games.
The Cardinals, off a win against Detroit, are now 5-5 for the last ten games. Their bullpen has been terrific lately at 2.23 in their last 7 games. They have a good record as a road favorite, which admittedly does not happen all that often.
I’ll give Keller a little more credit than his stats would suggest. Watching the highlights of his last start Mikolas looked terrific, and could be a great addition to the Cards’ rotation. I am wagering on a total in this game. Take the TOTAL to go UNDER.
|08-25-21||Reds v. Brewers OVER 7.5||1-4||Loss||-120||13 h 56 m||Show|
Reds (Castillo) vs Brewers (Woodruff)
The Brewer are sitting comfortably in first in their division, but the Reds, 7 games back are still in the mix for a wild card spot. it is Castillo (7-12, 4.35)) vs Woodruff (7-7, 2.48) on the mound tonight. Castillo started very poorly this season and then turned things around through July and August. His thirdlast start was a reversion to the dark side, but he was sharp in his last two starts, going 14 innings and allowing only 4 runs. Woodruff (7-7, 2.49) is usually very dependable but something was up in his last two starts. He was removed after 3 innings for wildness two starts ago, then bombed in his last start, allowing a very uncharacteristic 6 runs in five innings. One bad outing? No big deal, but two poor outings can signify trouble.
The Reds have an enviable road record and have much the better offense. It is their bullpen that has the Reds’ Manger Bell tearing his hair out. Milwaukee’s offense is middle of the pack but their pen has been very reliable, including a collective ERA in the low twos in their last 7 games. They have an exceptional record against right-handed starters.
The total is very low for these teams, but considering Woodruff’s last two starts, the Reds’ potent bats, and the Brewers’ record vs right-handers, I am looking for more runs to be scored. Take the Total to go OVER in the first five innings.
|08-23-21||Royals v. Astros UNDER 9||7-1||Win||100||12 h 11 m||Show|
KC Royals (Lynch) vs. Houston Astros (Greinke)
While a run for the playoffs is out of the question, the Royals are still playing like the season means something. They swept the Cubs and that was after taking 3 of 4 against the Astros in Houston. On Monday, 24 year old Daniel Lynch (3-3, 5.12) will take on the Astros for the second time in his short career. Lynch was miserable in his first call-up, but since returning in July, he has been a very effective starter. He is 3-1 since the all-star break with a 2.35 ERA. He held the Astros to 1 run over seven innings when he last faced them.
At 37 years of age, Zack Greinke (11-3, 3.49) is still in fine form. He is still pitching for length (6-7 innings per start), and has been terrific in August with a razor-sharp era of 1.89. Both teams are getting strong results from their bullpens, although Houston’s was well worked over in an 11 inning loss on Sunday. KC’s has been terrific with a collective ERA of 1.42 in their last 7 games.
As far as the offense goes, it is all Astros. They lead the Royals by almost 2 runs scored per game, and 25 points in batting average. They have a very good home record, but are not as successful against left handed pitchers. The Royals have not shown well on the road this season, and have not been effective vs righties.
The Astros are unlikely to take KC lightly this time around after their last series. They are a heavy favorite on Monday. I actually like the Royals’ chances in this game but am more confident in the total.
These are two very effective starters with good length to their outings and solid relief. The total seems high. I am wagering on the total to go under on Monday.
|08-22-21||Angels v. Indians UNDER 9||0-3||Win||100||10 h 44 m||Show|
LA Angels (Suarez) vs. Cleveland Indians (Quantrill)
The Angels and Indians are very evenly matched teams at the moment, right down to the pair of young relievers turned starters on the mound on Sunday. Neither team is completely out of contention, but at 5-5 last 10 will need to get a move on if either teams wants to make a play for the post season. Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill (3.24) has been very effective since making the move to starter. He is 2-0 with an ERA of 1.76 in his last seven starts and has stretched himself out to an average of 6 innings per outing. He hasn’t had much support but is backed by a solid pen that has been even better than average in their last 7 games.
Jose Suarez’ transition to starter has not been quite as easy. He is 2-5 with an ERA of 5.45 in his last seven games, and struggles facing left-handed batters. His starts are somewhat shorter at around 5 innings, but he will be supported by a recently improved pen.
After sweeping the Tigers, it looked like LA had some momentum, but they lost two straight vs Cleveland and have been limited to a total of 2 runs. Is this scoring drought to continue? Cleveland hasn’t the highest run output and with Quantrill on the mound, I believe the score will stay low. Take the Angels and Indians to go under the total.
|08-22-21||Marlins v. Reds UNDER 9||1-3||Win||100||4 h 38 m||Show|
Marlins (Alcantara) vs Reds (Gutierrez)
The light hitting and struggling Marlins have lost three in a row to the Reds and look to Sandy Alcantara for some return to good fortune. Considering Miami’s bullpen of late, Alcantara (7-11, 3.87) may need a complete game for a win on Saturday. Other than a terrible effort in Coors Field, Alcantara is capable of such a start. In his past two outings he has given up only 1 run in 15 innings total. His run support from the Marlins has been dismal.
His mound opponent is the other Vladi. Gutierrez (8-4,3.87) may not have the batting chops, but he has delivered as a starter. In 18 innings pitched over 3 starts, he has limited the opposition to 4 ER total. He can’t rely on the Reds’ bullpen, which as been pretty awful of late.
All of the offensive stats favor the Reds. Miami is low on average, slugging, and run production. They are 12-23 as a road dog, 21-42 on the road and have never face Gutierrez before.
I like the total to go under, and have been very sharp with them of late. The Marlins and the Red relief has been in tatters lately, so take the Under in the first five innings.
|08-20-21||White Sox v. Rays OVER 9||Top||7-5||Win||101||9 h 23 m||Show|
White Sox (Giolito) vs Rays (Wacha)
The team record for a given pitcher is a curious stat. Lucas Giolitto is 9-9 with a good ERA of 3.83, pitching for a very strongWhite Sox team. His team record? 11-13. Michael Wacha is 2-4, and has struggled most of the season, with a 5.91 ERA. Team Record? 10-6. Part of Wacha’s success is due to Tampa’s novel and successful use of their bullpen. Compared to the White Sox, the Rays’ relievers average an extra inning per game over the course of the season. Lately the bullpen has accounted for an average of more than half the Rays’ total innings. And with a collective ERA of 2.68, is it really any surprise?
Wacha has been pretty poor in his last 3 starts. He is 0-2 and has given up 18 earned runs in 14 innings. Needless to say we cannot expect a long outing out of him. Giolito has had only one bad start since mid-July, and is capable of good length in his starts. Against Wacha, it may be the day that Giolito gets some run support.
These are two division-leading teams, but the White Sox have been struggling at 5-5 last ten. They are not the best road team, but they are very solid against right-handed pitching. The Rays are 7-3, a terrific home team and very effective against right handed pitching.
I hate betting against the Rays, so I won’t. They always seem capable of turning a sandwich into a banquet somehow. I am looking at the total. At 9, Wacha on the mound, two very good offenses, I think it is low. Take the White Sox and Rays to go over the total.
|08-19-21||Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 8||4-8||Win||100||10 h 59 m||Show|
Milwaukee (Woodruff) vs st. Louis (Lester)
The Brewers meet the Cards for the second game of their series on Thursday. Off a loss, St Louis starts Jon Lester (9-10), 5.32). Lester is coming off a terrific start, pitching into the 6th and allowed only one run, but this has not been the norm. In his previous two outings, he gave up more runs than innings pitched. Woodruff, (7-6, 2.18) for the Brewers has been excellent all season, if a bit hard luck. He has given up 4 runs in his last three starts, but has suffered from a lack of run support.
Both starters are familiar to the opposing batters and have struggled to some extent. Milwaukee’s bull pen has not been as sharp as usual, while the Cardinals’, other that their closer, has been solid. Milwaukee has some impressive road stats, but St Louis is no pushover at home. Both teams have been successful of late.
I have great respect for Woodruff, but he was wild enough last start to have it cut short at 3 innings. I doubt that Lester has two dominating starts in a row in him. The total is low for Thursday’s game. Take the Total to go Over.
|08-19-21||Astros v. Royals OVER 9||6-3||Push||0||4 h 29 m||Show|
Astros (Garcia) vs Kansas City (Minor)
Off three straight losses and with the A’s just a couple of games back, Houston can no longer be comfortable. I am sure that losing the first two games to the lowly Royals was not in the plans. Luis Garcia (9-5, 3.32) starts for the Astros. It would be incorrect to say that he is struggling; after all he pitched 6 shut-out innings only 2 starts ago. Still, he is 3-2 with a 4.33 era in his last seven starts, and hasn’t shown as well on the road. He will be supported by a highly motivated, very potent offense and a sharp set of relievers.
Mike Minor (8-11, 5.35) starts for KC. He is 2-5 in his last seven, but can still deliver the innings; he has allowed 11 runs in 18 innings in his hast three starts.
The Astros are a far better hitting team and have had their way with Minor in the past. They are 14-9 as a home favorite. The Royals have done well as a road underdog and have never faced Garcia. Houston is a heavy favorite. It is hard to imagine the Astros losing three straight against the Royals, but it is the total that attracts me in this game. Neither starter has been especially sharp, and I can’t imagine the Astros’ big bats not making their presence known on Thursday. Take the total to go over.
|08-17-21||Brewers v. Cardinals UNDER 7||2-0||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
Milwaukee (Burns) vs. Cardinals (Wainwright)
The ‘old feller’ of the Cards starting rotation is on the hill and has he ever been grand. Adam Wainwright (11-6, 3.27) shows no sign of slowing down; in fact he threw a 9 inning 2 hit shutout his last start. He has been remarkably consistent, terrific at home, and 5-1 in his last 7 starts. His opponent, Corbin Burns (7/4, 2.23) is hardly an old man, but has been pretty grand himself. At 4-0 and 2.06, he has been exceptional on the road, and 3-0 post all-star break.
Both teams are surging at 7-3 (Mil.) and 8-2 (Cards), and are off wins. The Brewers pen has struggled slightly, the Cards’ has been sharp, although these starters have a history of long starts. Milwaukee has the nod in offense, and has an exceptional road record.
The total is very low today, but if there was to be a game with a low score this is it. Take the Brewers and Cards to go under the total.
|08-16-21||Indians v. Twins UNDER 9.5||4-5||Win||100||10 h 60 m||Show|
Indians (Quantrill) vs. Twins (Jax)
The Indians and Twins open a series today with a pair of young and talented starters on the mound. Griffin Jax (2-1, 4.36 ERA) is in his fifth start of the season, but has pitched well enough that his traveling days back and forth to Triple A are likely over. In his brief career he has faced the White Sox twice and the Astros, and come out relatively unscathed. He is 2-0 in his last three starts, allowing 5 runs in 16 innings pitched. He has struggled against right-handed pitching.
Cal Quantrill (3-1, 3.65 ERA) didn’t start a game until the end of May, but has pitched very well since. He is 3-0 in his last seven starts with a very impressive 1.71 ERA.
The Twins are playing well at the moment at 7-3, and have had effective relief pitching of late. The Indians, at 5-5 have been struggling, and their usually sharp pen has tanked lately. It is tough to call a winner in this game, but I am confident in the total. Both starters are now capable of longish starts, and the total has been consistently under in their appearances. I am looking for this game to continue the trend. Take the Under today.
|08-15-21||Astros v. Angels OVER 9||1-3||Loss||-115||4 h 17 m||Show|
Astros (McCullers Jr.) vs. Angels (Detmers)
This could be a mismatch. The Astros have Lance McCullers Jr. on the mound facing Reid Detmers in just his third start. Detmers struggled mightily in his first 2 starts, and has a 10.61 ERA in his brief career. I am sure he is a better pitcher than those stats would imply, but facing the formidable Astros lineup might be too much of a challenge today. McCullers is 9-3 with an ERA of 3.22. While he has a 7-0 away record, he has not been quite as sharp lately.
What has been sharp is the Astros’ bullpen (1.42 collective ERA), in large contrast to the Angels’ relief efforts (6.23 ERA last 7). The Astros have the most potent offense and the largest run differential in the MLB. They are 14-7 as a road favorite. The Angels, off a pair of losses to the Astros, can scores runs but pale in comparison to Houston.
Obviously Houston is a favorite; it is more a question of by how much they will win. Considering Detmer’s past results, the Angels’ poor bullpen and The Astro’s power, I am looking for this game to go over the Total.
|08-11-21||A's v. Indians UNDER 9||6-3||Push||0||9 h 25 m||Show|
Oakland A’s (Montas) vs Cleveland Indians (Quantrill)
After beating Cleveland in extra innings, Oakland has won 5 straight games straight. Today they face the Indians’ young starter Cal Quantrill (3-1, 3.71), who has been an eye opener in his last 6 starts. In his last three starts, he has allowed only 1 run over 19 innings. It is a pity that the Indians haven’t taken more of an advantage of his fine stuff..
The A’s have Frankie Montas on the mound, who has also been strong. He is 2-1 in his last 7 starts with a 2.76 ERA. Montas has been averaging 6 innings per start with an absolute ton of strikeouts.
Both bullpens have been lights-out of late, with collective ERA’s of under 2.00. Oakland has been a very fine road team this year and are still in play for a wildcard spot. Is Cleveland out of contention? Not completely, so the motivation is still there to compete. They have been a decent home team this year.
I am taking a total here. Neither team is an offensive force, with two strong starters on the mound today and good relief available. Take the Total to go Under.
|08-10-21||Cardinals v. Pirates OVER 9||4-1||Loss||-120||11 h 52 m||Show|
Cards (Happ) vs Pirates (Brault)
The Pirates return home after a lamentable road trip, going 3-7 in their last 10 games. A day off and a home start might change things somewhat. They face J.A. Happ (5-6, 6.62) and the Cardinals on Tuesday. Happ pitched better than usual in his first start for his new team, but has not been generally successful this year. He is 2-3 with an era of 8.10 in his last 7 games, has been poor vs. both sides of the plate, and struggled on the road.
His opponent is lefty Steven Brault. Brault was an effective starter last year but was sidelined until recently. In his first start back was vs. Milwaukee, and he held them to 1 run and 3 hits over 4 innings. I would confidently bet on Brault and the Pirates, if it weren’t for Pittsburgh bullpen. It has been extremely poor, and with Brault likely on a leash, this gives the Cardinals plenty of time to get back in the game. The Card’s pen is one aspect of the team that has played well this season and has been good of late. I am wagering on the total on Monday. Look for the Cards/Pirates total to go over.
|08-07-21||Tigers v. Indians UNDER 9.5||2-1||Win||100||11 h 56 m||Show|
Tigers (T. Alexander) vs Indians (Morgan)
These two teams played on Friday with Cleveland winning handily. On Saturday, two unheralded starters are on the mound. With ERAs of 4.77 and 6.75, one might say it wasn’t surprising. Looking closer, both starters have merit. Alexander for the Tigers (0-0, 4.77), a Starter/long reliever, has no record, but his team is 5-0 with him on the mound. His appearances are short bu he has pitched well in 4 of his 5 last starts. The Indians’ Eli Morgan at 23 is a bit more of the risk/reward type. He has bounced up and down from Triple A this year, but is likely here to stay, especially after his last outing against the Jays (6 innings, 2 ER, 9 strikeouts). It is worth checking out the highlights of that game; he was very impressive.
Both bullpens have been very sharp of late. This is no surprise with Cleveland, but Detroit’s relievers have been surprisingly dominant in their last seven games. The under has figured prominently in many of these teams’ results lately.
I am looking at a total today. Alexander has been efficient, and I think that Morgan is a young starter with lots of potential. With two solid pens to back them I am expecting the total to go under today.
|08-05-21||Pirates v. Reds OVER 9.5||4-7||Win||102||8 h 49 m||Show|
Pittsburgh (Crowe) vs Reds (S. Gray)
The Pirates are struggling, with 7-3 record in their last ten games, a lamentable away record, and a bullpen that has been poor beyond belief in their last seven games. Looking at Wil Crowe’s stats, you wouldn’t think he gives them much of a chance to turn things around. In fact, since the all-star break, Crowe has pitched well (2-0, 3.24 ERA), and has some support from his mates with a team record of 7/8.
For the Reds on Thursday, Sonny Gray (3-6, 4.26) is on the mound. Gray struggled with rib strain resulting in in a post all-star break ERA of 9.00, however in his last game he threw 6 innings of 1 run ball.
Both starters are capable of a decent start. The issues in this game lie elsewhere. The Pirates are one of the lightest hitting teams in the MLB and give up some of the highest totals as well. 10.12: that is the ERA of the Pirates bullpen in their last seven games. The Reds are a good hitting team and have made some recent changes to their pen, but still struggle in relief. I am wagering that in spite of the best efforts of the two starters, the total today will go over
|08-05-21||Red Sox v. Tigers OVER 9.5||1-8||Loss||-115||1 h 6 m||Show|
Boston (Perez) vs Detroit (Skubal)
Off a loss against the Red Sox yesterday, Detroit turns to Tariq Skubal for better success. Detroit has a decent home record and is 5-5 in their last ten games. Boston won last night, but are only 4 -6 last ten. Is this the start of the swoon that people have long forseen? Martin Perez(7-7, 4.56) starts for the Sox. He is 0-2 in his last three starts, giving up about a run an inning, and has a 7.71 ERA since the all-star break. Skubal has also struggled, is 1-2 (5.40 ERA) since the all-star break, and a victim of allowing too many dingers lately.
Both teams can score runs. Boston’s pen has been good and consistent all year long. The Tigers have struggled in relief but have significantly overachieved in their last seven games. This is probably not a stat that can be maintained.
With both starters not at peak form, two decent offenses, and the home run ball figuring prominently, I am looking at the total and wagering on the TOTAL to go OVER
|08-01-21||Reds v. Mets UNDER 9||7-1||Win||100||3 h 6 m||Show|
Cincinnati Reds (Gutierrez) vs. NY Mets (Stroman)
The Mets, first in their division, must be peering over their collective shoulders. Three games up on the Phillies/Braves, if they fall out of first they likely stand no chance of holding down a wild card spot with their record. Their opponent on Sunday, the Reds, can flex lots of offensive muscle but sport a 29th place bullpen. Both teams made changes at the deadline. The Reds added 3 relievers, the Mets, a starter and Javier Biaz, and now the question is: have they done enough?
The Mets came back to win on Saturday night, and turn it over to Marcus Stroman (7-9, 2.63) on Sunday. In his last three starts, he has given up 4 runs in 18 innings pitched, and still had to be satisfied with a 1 and 2 record. His mound opponent is Vladimir Gutierrez (5-3, 4.75). He was beaten by the Mets the last time he faced them. He has had effective starts but seems to throw in the rare poor one, and allows opposing batters a high batting average.
We will see if the new additions to the Red’s pen will rescue it, as with a collective ERA of 5.38, it needs improvement. The Mets’ bullpen has been sharp as usual, the positive part of the Mets’ mantra of ‘score few runs, allow fewer..”
I am wagering on a total here. Stroman usually goes late into the game, allows few runs, and gets even less support. Gutierrez has his moments. I believe he won’t stink out he joint on Sunday and there are hopes for improvement from the Reds in their late innings relief. Take the total to go UNDER.
|07-30-21||A's v. Angels UNDER 8.5||2-0||Win||100||12 h 8 m||Show|
Oakland A’s (Bassit) vs LA Angels (Sandoval)
The last time these two teams met, the A’s, at home, took two of two against the Angels, holding them to 1 ER. Since then, the A’s have added two key pieces to help them down the stretch. The Angels can’t decide whether to play or fold, but Thursday’s result may help to clarify as the deadline approaches. With Seattle drawing closer to Oakland this series is critical for the A’s. As for LA, it is pretty clear that they are going nowhere this season.
It is Chris Bassit (10-3, 3.46) pitching for Oakland. The A’s are 14-7 with him on the mound. Bassit has given wins and innings this season, although his July ERA (5.40) might raise some eyebrows.
Sandoval is on the mound for the Angels. The leftie has a 2.93 ERA in July and has been sharp in his last three starts although his record does not reflect this. In those three games, he has pitched 7 or better innings, giving up seven runs.
Oakland has just added another piece to its bullpen, which was already very good. The pen has been razor sharp of late. The Angels‘ relief corp is very much a one trick pony, and has not been impressive in their last 7 games.
The A’s have owned the Angels this season and have everything to play for. The Angels? It is probably a low moment for them. I like both starters. Sandoval in particular has been impressive lately. I feel that the Total is the way to go in this game. Take the A’s and Angels to go under!
|07-27-21||Astros v. Mariners UNDER 8||8-6||Loss||-100||12 h 5 m||Show|
Astros (McCullers Jr.) vs. Mariners (Flexen)
Both teams had won their last three starts before meeting up last night. The Astros face a more difficult opponent today in Chris Flexen.
Flexen has been nothing short of remarkable this season. He is 9-4 with an ERA of 3.35. The Mariners are 13- 5 with him pitching. You want more? How about 4-1, 1.60 last seven starts, or 20 innings pitched last three starts, allowing only three runs.
McCullers Jr is also having a fine season, but struggled somewhat last outing. He is 4-1 in his last 7 starts and 5-0 in away games this season.
The Astros pen has been good of late but have one surprising stat; they are 6-11 in W/L on the road. Mariners’ pen has been lights out of late, good at home, and looking at a similar stat, is 18-5 in win/loss at home for the season.
Of note: Astros are a very good road team, but their offense is down slightly lately. Mariners are a good road team, and their offense is up in their last games.
I am wagering that this game will go UNDER. 81/2 is a pretty high total for these starters. Both starters are likely to go long, and with strong relief corps at the moment, I see them stymieing the offense.
|07-26-21||Braves v. Mets UNDER 6.5||2-0||Win||100||8 h 33 m||Show|
Braves (Muller) vs Mets (Stroman).
The Mets took 2 of 3 against the Jays, gaining a little ground between them and the Braves and Phillies.
Marcus Stroman (7-8, 2.59) is on the hill for the Mets this afternoon. Stroman pitched an absolute gem last outing, going 8 innings and allowing only 1 hit. He appears to be completely recovered from his hip soreness that bothered him some starts ago. He also had some run support, so just maybe his W/L record will start to reflect his abilities.
The pitcher for the Braves is 23 year old Kyle Muller (1-3, ERA of 2.41 as a starter). Muller has bounced around from farm to major leagues with some frequency, but in between travels has amassed some decent stats. His issue appears to be control. He hasn’t allowed many runs, but does run up his pitch count very quickly.
The Mets are a light hitting team, the Braves have some oomph. Stroman’s record is solid vs. the Braves. The Mets have never faced Muller. The total reflects that this is the opening game of a double header.
I am wagering that the total goes under. Both bullpens have been much better than average of late. Stroman might finish for himself if he pitches like his last game. And just a side note, but Man, was Mets’ closer Diaz impressive against the Jays yesterday.
|07-25-21||Blue Jays v. Mets OVER 9||4-5||Push||0||3 h 39 m||Show|
After losing Friday night, the Jays brought out the big bats on Saturday and even an indifferent outing by their ace Riyu couldn’t stop them from a lopsided win. Rich Hill is on the mound for the Mets. It might be expecting a lot from Hill, who was just traded Saturday, to run it out against the Jays the next day, but being traded is nothing new to Hill. In his long career, he has pitched for 11 different teams. He has had a solid season going 6-4 with a 3.87 ERA. July has been so-so for him after a terrific May. His ERA is 4.97 for the month, and his starts have averaged between 3-5 innings. The Jays are familiar with Hill and have had some success against him.
Ross Stripling is pitching for the Jays today. Stripling started the year very poorly, then made some alterations to his delivery and was quite successful mid season. Of late the bad is busting through the good. He was absolutely shelled in the first inning against the Red Sox and for the month he is 0-2 and 10.24. His start length has declined, which is an issue as the Jays’ weakness is still relief. The Mets’ weakness generally hasn’t been in their relievers, but last night Guerrero and Co. knocked them around.
The Toronto’s offense really is formidable, and with the addition of Semien and Springer, much more
experienced. The Mets are a light hitting team but they may get their chances against Striping and the Jays’ pen.
My wager? Take the total to go over.
|07-17-21||Mariners v. Angels OVER 8.5||4-9||Win||100||11 h 34 m||Show|
Seattle Mariners (Kikuchi) vs. Los Angeles Angels (Cobb)
After a stellar outing last night by the Seattle starter, the Angels are out of the pitching frying pan with Flexen, and into the fire with Kikuchi. Perhaps Yusei Kikuchi, who stumbled a little last start, will take his missed All-star participation out on the Angels. He is 6-3, 2.77 ERA in his last 12 starts.
Facing him is Alex Cobb. Cobb had a terrific start last outing but his June stats were poor; his ERA was 7.32 over three starts. The Mariners have a good history with Cobb. The Angels have been only fair vs Kikuchi.
Last night’s blown lead aside, the Mariners relief core has been effective, however as a team, they do lack the offensive fire-power of the Angels. Ohtani and the Angels’ lineup have been absolutely on fire over the last two weeks.
Seattle burned their two top relievers last night. Kikuchi is only a ‘five or six innings per outing’ starter, which gives the Angels an opportunity to feast on the rest of the pen. Cobb is just one start away from a very poor stretch. Take the total to go OVER.
|07-10-21||Pirates v. Mets UNDER 6||6-2||Loss||-115||6 h 28 m||Show|
Pirates(Anderson) vs. Mets (Stroman)
The Pirates have returned to their losing ways. After taking two of three vs the Braves, they have now lost two straight. They will look to Ian Anderson in the first game of the double-header to halt this skid before it becomes a habit again. Anderson has pitched much better than his record of 4-8. In his last three games, he has averaged at least 6 innings pitched, and given up 5 earned runs total. As this is only a 7 inning game, this will give the woeful Pirates relievers less time on the firing line.
Marcus Stroman has had a rough few games. He had shortened outings due to hip soreness and then went on bereavement leave. His last start was not his best, but, Hallelujah, he finally had some run support from the Mets batters.
These are two relatively light hitting teams with two strong starters. In the first game of the double header I am betting on the total to go UNDER.
|07-09-21||Yankees v. Astros OVER 9||Top||4-0||Loss||-117||10 h 58 m||Show|
The Yankees and Astros met three times back in May. Two of those games finished with 10 or more runs. The other finished with nine. Five of the past six meetings have finished with at least nine runs. Odorizzi has a 6.76 ERA in his four starts here. Three finished over the total. Odorizzi averaged only three innings in those games. Cortes won't be around long either. He's made only one start and lasted just three innings. Cortes did happen to face Houston in his lone 2020 start. He managed only one out while allowing 8 runs. In fact, he gave up more HR's than he had outs recorded. Prior to yesterday, NY had gone over in six of seven.
My wager? Take the OVER
|07-07-21||Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 10.5||10-2||Win||100||9 h 23 m||Show|
Toronto Blue Jays (Riu) vs Baltimore Orioles (Harvey)
Its game two in the’ Battle of the Birds’, and Orioles flew away with the first one. The Jays are fighting to challenge for the lead in the formidable American East and need to win this series against Baltimore. Their offense is healthy and dominant; they know they can’t rely on an injury-riddled and struggling pitching staff.
What has come over Hyun Jin Riu? Riu, the master of the slow stuff and team ace, is struggling. His last start (4 runs over 4 innings) was his worst of the season, but his outings have been shorter and less effective than at the start of the season.
One could ask the same of Harvey, but for different reasons. Sporting an abysmal ERA of 7.34 and 3/9, he appears to have turned it around in his last few starts. He face the Jays twice in their last series, pitched ten innings over 2 starts and allowed only 7 earned runs.
Of note: The Jays have a 5-2 record against Baltimore, and they play better on the road than in whichever park they are calling home. They have in past teed off on Harvey.
With probable short outings from the two starters, suspect relief and the Jays’ tough hitting lineup, I am betting on the OVER
|07-03-21||Marlins v. Braves UNDER 9||3-2||Win||100||7 h 44 m||Show|
Marlins (Alcantara) vs Braves (Muller)
The Marlins were in tough last night but lost in a close one, 1-0. With Acuna getting plunked in the first inning, there may be a little extra on the field between these two teams. The Braves have won three straight and in a variety of ways; 20 runs scored against the Mets and last night’s 1-0 shut-out.
The game sports an interesting pitching matchup. Sandy Alcantara starts for the Marlins. He was 2-3 in June, with a 1.02 WHIP. He struggled with his control in his last start, but in his four previous outings, gave up only 4 ER and 1 HR. Alcantara can pitch well into his games, averaging 7 innings per start. He will need to on Sunday, as the Marlins have run out 6 relievers in each of their last two games.
23 year old Kyle Muller will pitch his third major league start for the Braves. He is a very tall left-hander with dominating stuff. In his previous 2 starts, he has gone 9 innings total, and allowed 1 ER. Control had been an issue in the minors, and Muller has issued a pair of walks in each of his starts.
Both bullpens had a workout last night, and both pitched well. This is not uncharacteristic of Atlanta’s pen and may be a factor on Sunday, considering Muller’s past starts have been only 4 and 5 innings long.
The Braves can hit a ton of homeruns, but please note that the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta’s last 7 games.
I am riding the total to go UNDER.
|07-03-21||Mets v. Yankees UNDER 8.5||8-3||Loss||-100||4 h 34 m||Show|
Mets (Taijuan Walker) vs Yankees (Jordan Montgomery)
The Mets, reeling from a 20 run drubbing in Atlanta and a rare DeGrom loss two nights ago, turn to their other ace to restore a bit of equilibrium. Walker (3-2, 2.58, 1.04/ last 7) was a fine pick-up for the Mets this year. He is dependable for innings pitched and earned runs allowed. The Mets are 11-3 with Walker on the mound.
Facing him is Jordan Montgomery who is 2-1 in his last three starts. Montgomery has pitched well against the Mets and has consistently pitching into the 6th inning. Why is this important? Both the Mets and Yankees bullpens have struggled in their last 7 starts. Even Aroldis Chapman was lit up for 4 ER and 3 walks in 1/3 of an inning.
The Yankees are slumping, the Mets haven’s scored more than 4 runs in seven games, the Yanks struggle against a lefty. I say, bet on the UNDER.
|07-02-21||Brewers v. Pirates OVER 7.5||7-2||Win||100||9 h 39 m||Show|
Brewers (Houser) vs Pirates (Brubaker)
Pity the Pirates. Light-hitting defines them. Even at Coors Field, they were shut out 2 of 3 in their last series. The same cannot be said for the Brewers of late. The winners of 9 straight, they have a pair of 14+ runs-scored games in their last 4 starts.
Facing the red-hot Brew crew is Pirates’ starter JT Brubaker. He has been 0-3 in June but has had almost no run support (4 Pirates runs in three starts). He is good for 5 or 6 innings, and has been adequate over his last three starts.
It is tough to find an upside to the Pirates offense, but they did have some success against Brewers’ starter Adrian Houser last time they met. His effectiveness has slid from some early season success. In his last three starts he has given up 11 ER in 16+ total innings. He has three no-decisions in those three starts. Of note, Milwaukee has gone on to win all three of those games.
The Brewers bullpen has been very strong last seven games and are well-rested. The Pirates’ pen has been adequate but ridden hard in their last few games.
Considering the Brewers’ offense, the Pirates’ well worked bullpen and Pittsburgh’s modest success against Hauser, I’m betting the total to go OVER
|07-01-21||Dodgers v. Nationals UNDER 9.5||6-2||Win||100||9 h 58 m||Show|
LA Dodgers (Gonsolin) vs Nationals Corbin)
Winners of their last five games, the Dodgers open a four game road series against the Nationals. LA hasn’t scored a lot of runs of late, but have had excellent starting pitching and lights-out relief. Washington delivered a 15-6 thumping of the Rays on Wednesday, taking both games of a short series. They are a formidable 8-2 /last 10.
Tony Gonsolin is pitching for the Dodgers. Since returning from the 60 day DL, Gonsolin has been on a short leash, pitching less than 4 innings per start. While he is 0-0 for the season, he has an ERA of 2.77 and the Dodgers have won all four of his starts.
Patrick Corbin is on the hill for the Nationals. Corbin has had a mixed season at 5-6 with a 4.57 ERA.
He has had one very good start of his last three, and hasn’t given up more than 3 ER in his last 4 starts.
He has struggled with the long ball this season.
Neither team has had much experience against the other. Corbin has done well vs the Dodgers. The Nationals have never faced Gonsolin.
Bet on the total to go under.
|06-20-21||A's v. Yankees OVER 9.5||1-2||Loss||-110||3 h 30 m||Show|
The A’s lost on Saturday for the first time in nine games. Today it is Manaea vs Montgomery on the hill. Montgomery is 3 -1 with an era of 4.20 for the season, but NY has a habit of winning when he is on the mound. Montgomery doesn’t often pitch late into the game.
Manaea in his last four games has only given up two earned runs, however Oakland’s bullpen has been so-so of late.
Oakland has been scoring runs in bunches while sweeping KC and the Angels, and the total has edged up. Yankees have been beating up on struggling bullpens.
With Montgomery on the hill, the A’s potent offense, and Oakland’s bullpen, look for the total to go over.
|06-14-21||Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 10||Top||1-2||Win||100||10 h 49 m||Show|
The set-up: I think off of yesterday's 18-4 Jays victory, that Monday's series four-game series finale sets up as much more of a "duel." Toronto hands the ball to Alek Manoah (1-0, 3.14 ERA), who bounced back from a bad outing to allow two runs over five innings while striking out four in a no-decision vs. the White Sox last time out. He so far has a decent 16/7 K/BB over 14.1 innings of work.
The pick: Clearly, Boston's bullpen can't be happy with yesterday's result. This pick is based mostly upon the steady play of Boston starter Nathan Eovaldi (7-3, 4.11), who gave up five runs over six innings in a loss to Houston in his last outing. It was only the third home run he's given up all season though, and note that he's been at his best in all "night" games with a 3-1, 2.99 ERA record. Finally, note that Boston has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last ten after a ten runs or greater home loss in its last outing. This number is high, the play is the under.
This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Jays/Red Sox.
|06-05-21||Mets v. Padres OVER 5.5||Top||4-0||Loss||-120||12 h 28 m||Show|
The set-up: This can still be a pitchers duel and go "over" this tiny number, and that's exactly what I'm expecting here. It's impossible to say anything negative about either Jacob deGrom of the Mets or Joe Musgrove of the Padres. Each has been damn near perfect. Regression is likely to come, but not anything terrible. All of that said, this play is based entirely on some very strong O/U trends that each team has exhibited in this spot.
The pick: As note that the Mets have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a shutout road loss to an opponent, while San Diego has seen the total go "over" in seven of its last ten after shutting out its opponent in its previous outing while scoring two or less runs in the process. Look for this one to sneak over in the latter frames.
This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Mets/Padres.
|06-02-21||Marlins v. Blue Jays UNDER 8||Top||5-6||Loss||-100||10 h 38 m||Show|
The setup: If you aren’t yet on the Manoah bandwagon, check this game out. After a brief stint in Minors, Manoah forced his way into the Jays’ beleaguered rotation with three strong starts in Triple A. His first major league game was versus the Yankees in Yankee stadium. Nerves? Not a chance. Nervy, more likely. Manoah delivered 6 innings, 2 hits, 0 runs and 7 strikeouts, and baffled the Yanks from start to finish.
Pitching for the Marlins is Pedro Lopez, no slouch either. An unlucky 1- 3 this season, with an ERA of 2.71, Lopez in his last three starts has delivered 19 innings, 4 earned runs, 3 walks, and 16 strikeouts. The Marlins’ bullpen is much improved over last year, and the total has gone under 3 of the last 4 of Marlins games.
The pick: The Jays have never faced Lopez, and while they have the potential of formidable offense in 2021, they are still a very young team. They have a tendency to struggle the first time against an unfamiliar pitcher. This total is indeed high in my opinion.
This is a 10* IL TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER Marlins/Jays.
|05-31-21||Phillies v. Reds OVER 8.5||Top||1-11||Win||100||5 h 5 m||Show|
The set-up: Both of these starting pitchers has been decent this year, but I believe these hungry line-ups will garner the most headlines in tomorrow's summaries. The visitors go with Vince Velasquez (2-0, 2.95 ERA) who went six shutout innings against the Marlins on Tuesday. It was easily his best start of the year. After a couple of shaky campaigns, Velasquez looks to finally have found his groove again. Hard to say anything negative about him at this point, I just think he's in the wrong place at the wrong time essentially.
The pick: Wade Miley (4-4, 3.50) gets the nod for the home side and he returns from a short stint on the IL with a sprained foot. He'll be on a bit of leash here in this outing. Also note that he's 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA in all "day games" this season. This one has "over" written all over it.
This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Phillies/Reds.
|05-24-21||Rays v. Blue Jays UNDER 10.5||Top||14-8||Loss||-101||3 h 32 m||Show|
The set-up: Two of three games in this four-game series have gone "over" the number, but I think this afernoon's get-a-way total is just a little too high now. Two starting pitchers who will be hungry to get their season's back on track go head-to-head here. The visitors go with Ryan Yarbrough (2-3, 4.24 ERA) who gave up six runs (three earned) over six innings in a no-decision to the Orioles on Wednesday. Note that Yabrough has been much better on the road (2-1, 3.93) than at home this year (0-2, 4.71).
The pick: Ross Stripling is 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA. Clearly, he's struggled, but note that Toronto has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it conceded six or more runs in. Look for this one to sneak "under."
This is a 10* TOTAL COACHES CORNER on the UNDER Rays/Jays.
|05-16-21||Cardinals v. Padres UNDER 7||Top||3-5||Loss||-107||12 h 53 m||Show|
The set-up: The first two games of this series have flown "over" the number, but a couple of red hot starters collide in the third game, and I expect runs to be at a premium. Kwang Hyun Kim (1-0, 2.74 ERA) gae up one run and struck out six over six innings in unfortunate no-decision to the Brewers in his last outing. Over 20 innings of work he's allowed just four runs.
The pick: Ryan Weathers (2-1, 0.81) has been superb whenever the Padres have needed him. Dinelson Lamet is set to come in if Weathers falters as well. Finally, note that the Padres have seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last nine after playing to back-to-back "unders" at home. This number is high.
This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Cardinals/Padres.
|05-14-21||Phillies v. Blue Jays OVER 10||Top||5-1||Loss||-112||11 h 54 m||Show|
The set-up: Two interleague teams here hungry for a win collide and I expect this one to soar "over" the number sooner, rather than later. Vince Velasquez (1-0, 4.18 ERA) and Steven Matz (5-2, 4.86) have both been solid this season, and each is coming off a decent outing. Neither has been perfect, but each has been strong. That said, I think they're in the wrong place at the wrong time today. The Phillies average 4.13 RPG, and their bullpen is just atrocious. Off a 5-1 loss in the nation's capital, look for the Phillies to bounce back here.
The pick: The Jays are 20-16 and four games above .500 for the first time this year. While Matz does come in off the decent outing in his last start, note that he's just 2-5 with a 6.10 ERA in 12 career games vs. the Phillies. This one has over written all over it.
This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Phillies/Jays.
|05-13-21||Giants v. Pirates OVER 8||Top||3-1||Loss||-106||27 h 59 m||Show|
The set-up: The Giants have won four of their last five, which includes two in a row here at home over the Rangers most recently. Both of those contests were low-scoring, but everything points to more of a "slug-fest" here today. Anthony DeSclafani has been sharp for the Giants overall, but he's coming off a poor start, allowing three runs over four innings in a no-decision to the Padres on Friday. Note, while 2-0 with a 1.34 ERA at home, he's 0-1 with a 3.43 ERA on the road.
The pick: Wil Crowe gave up two runs over six innings in a 3-2 loss to the Cubs on Saturday. The rookie is 0-1 with a 4.01 ERA, but the sample size here is just way too small. Certainly he draws a tough opponent in the Giants, who have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 road games after playing to back-to-back home "unders." This number is low, the play is the over.
This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Giants/Pirates.
|05-07-21||Phillies v. Braves OVER 8||Top||12-2||Win||100||12 h 49 m||Show|
The set-up: Two teams hungry for a victory collide in this one. Philadelphia has won four straight, most recently sweeping the Brewers at home. Atlanta has won three straight, most recently sweeping the Nationals at home. Both teams got out to poor starts and neither can afford to take the foot off the gas any time soon. With each side finally starting to play better, expect these trends to carry over here and for that to then translate into offensive production on the field.
The pick: Zach Eflin is 1-1 with a 3.49 ERA, while Charlie Morton is 2-1 with a 5.08 ERA for the Braves. Neither has been overly spectacular. Neither team has received very good bullpen play thie year either. It all adds up to a high-scoring "slug-fest" in my opinion.
This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the OVER Phillies/Braves.
|05-06-21||Braves v. Nationals OVER 9||Top||3-2||Loss||-114||9 h 60 m||Show|
The set-up: A couple of suspect starting pitchers go head-to-head in this one and they face a couple of team's desperate to start stringing wins together. When you add those two factors up, invariably you get a higher-scoring game. Drew Smyly (0-2, 8.05 ERA), will likely eventually start getting his season turned around, but so far he's been a disaster, most recently allowing six runs off seven hits, including three home runs in a 13-5 loss to the Jays.
The pick: Jon Lester (0-0, 0.00), was good in his season debut for his new team, going five scoreless in a no-decision vs. the Fish on Friday. Last year the veteran had a 5.16 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP, so regression is imminent in opinion. Look for these starting pitchers to get the hook early and look for that to help in driving this total "over" the posted number sooner, rather than later.
This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Braves/Nationals.
|05-05-21||Astros v. Yankees UNDER 9||Top||3-6||Push||0||12 h 53 m||Show|
The set-up: The Yanks have won four in a row now, most recently a 7-3 victory in yesterday's series opener vs. the Astros. While that total went "over," I expect Wednesday's game to be more of a "duel." Houston turns to Luis Garcia, who won't be lacking for motivation here after starting the season 0-3. He most recently comes in off a hard-luck loss vs. the Mariners, giving up one run over five innings, striking out six and giving up zero walks. He has a 2.70 ERA and a 20/7 K/W over 20 innings of work.
The pick: The Yanks counter with Jordan Montgomery, who is 1-1 with a 4.39 ERA and who comes in off a good start vs. the Orioles on Thursday, allowing two runs over five innings. Montgomery sports a sharp 24/8 K/W. Look for these two competent starting pitchers to battle deep, and for this one to ultimately stay "under" once it's all said and done.
This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Astros/Yankees.