Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-12-16 | Thunder v. Spurs -9 | Top | 98-102 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (8:05 ET): Prior to last week, the Spurs had gone all season w/o dropping B2B games, a remarkable achievement (one that Golden State has actually pulled off). They also hadn't lost at home until Sunday's 92-86 setback at the hands of the Warriors. There's really nothing to play for tonight vs. Oklahoma City as both teams are locked into a seed (Spurs 2nd, Thunder 3rd) in the top-heavy West, but I still believe the team sporting the best point differential and efficiency rating in the league is a solid value at home tonight as they look to end a season-worst slide (three in row straight up, six-game ATS losing streak). It's pretty likely that OKC will rest both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook (this is their reg season finale) and w/o those two, the Thunder really don't have much to offer. Lay the points. Both Durant and Westbrook played last night as the team rolled to an easy (as expected) 112-79 win over the lousy Lakers. Durant has sat out the last two times the Thunder have been in the second game of a back to back while Westbrook joined him in the last one, a 120-115 loss in Portland. Overall, OKC has dropped five of its last six when unrested and last night's defensive performance actually does not bode well for them here as they are 0-4 ATS after allowing 85 pts or less the previous game. As an underdog, they are 1-9 SU and 3-6 ATS this year. By one-half point (were +8.5), they covered here in San Antonio last month, but that came with both superstars in the lineup. Considering neither is likely to play here, why have the oddsmakers made no real adjustment. Of course, it could be because the Spurs may not play everyone either. HC Greg Popovich sat arguably his five best players on March 26th at Oklahoma City and the result there was a 111-92 loss. I want to be clear that this play stands regardless of what Popovich or Billy Donovan decides to do as the Spurs are still looking to tie the single season record for most home wins in a regular season (41) and they have outscored visiting teams here by 14.2 points per game. Winning tonight and resting tomorrow is probably Popovich's goal and the Spurs should do that rather easily here. 8* San Antonio |
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04-12-16 | Heat +2.5 v. Pistons | Top | 99-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
10* Miami (7:35 ET): Thanks to Charlotte beating Boston last night, the Heat find themselves in the driver's seat for having home court advantage in a first round playoff series. They are on the road for the final two games, here in Detroit and then tomorrow in Boston, but if they win both then they will finish no worse than fourth in the Eastern Conference. Of course, that's "easier said than done" especially considering the Pistons happen to own the best home ATS record in the league (24-14) after a blowout win over Washington all the way back on Friday. But don't be surprised if the home team comes out flat and my power rankings disagree with the notion of Detroit even being favored in this matchup. I'm happy for the Pistons, and especially HC Stan Van Gundy (who has gotten a "raw deal" at almost every previous stop), that they'll be back in the playoffs this year following a six-year absence. But this team often struggles to shoot the basketball (29th in "true shooting percentage") and that could really come back to bite them against a team like the Heat. It certainly did exactly one week ago, in Miami, as SVG's team made only 40% of its field goal attempts, including 5 of 21 from three-point range, in a 107-89 loss. Given the final score there, I think the oddsmakers have made a mistake by not making any real adjustments in the line here, save for the obvious one that comes w/ the change in home court advantage. It's not that often that the Heat are an underdog, so tonight is a good time to take advantage. The Pistons have averaged 110 PPG over their last two contests, but I don't see them getting anywhere near that here as the Heat are allowing just 98.5 points per game and rank 7th in defensive efficiency. In fact, Miami is the more efficient team on both ends of the court. Scoring has been way up for them ever since acquiring Joe Johnson as they've topped 100 pts in 19 of their last 21 games. The only two times they failed to reach triple digits came in the second game of a back to back, at San Antonio and at Portland. It's interesting to note how the line is dropping here even though Detroit is just a short home favorite. 10* Miami |
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04-11-16 | Rockets -3 v. Wolves | Top | 129-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
10* Houston (8:05 ET): I was happy to see the Rockets pull away late against the Lakers as I decided to lay a big number with them Sunday afternoon and it ended up being a much needed 130-110 victory. I figured they'd be able to score at will against the worst defense in the league and this is another spot where that should be the case. It can't be understated how much Houston needs this game as they still trail 8th place Utah (who also won Sunday) by one game w/ two to play. With only a visit from Sacramento to come after this, the Rockets will be favored to win out and that's something they probably have to do. So lay the points here. (Utah does host Dallas tonight and Houston has the tiebreaker against both teams). Minnesota, it should be pointed out, has won its last three games (all on the road) and two of those were against Golden State and Portland. But, nevertheless, bad teams off a SU win tend to be strictly fade material this time of year. The last (and only) time we saw the T'wolves on a three-game win streak this season was back in November and they went on to lose the next time out. Now they did cover, but that's because they were taking a big number on the road against the Clippers. Here it's a small number at home and it should be pointed out that Minny has gone only 13-25-1 ATS on its own court this season, which is the worst home ATS record in the league by a wide margin (only team that's covered less than 40% of its home games this year). Also, getting back to the win streak, over the L3 seasons we have not seen Minnesota produce a single four-game win streak. They are 0-6 SU when off three consecutive victories. Houston has dominated Minnesota head to head, taking 10 of the past 11 matchups including six straight. As was the case yday, the Rockets should be able to score plenty of points here (they've scored at least 107 pts in each of the 11 prior meetings) as the T'wolves rank 27th in terms of defensive efficiency by giving up 1.07 points per 100 possessions. In yday's analysis, I talked about how preposterous it was that the Rockets dropped that game to the Suns on Friday as they shot 56.8% from the floor. I expect James Harden (scored 40 on Sunday) to have another big game and for the Rockets to stay alive in the playoff hunt. 10* Houston |
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04-10-16 | Warriors v. Spurs -5.5 | Top | 92-86 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (7:05 ET): Yes, this means I'm calling for Golden State not to break the 1995-96 Bulls' single season record of 72 wins, something which only a few weeks ago looked to be a mere formality. But home losses to both the Celtics and T'wolves changed that and now the defending NBA Champs are back to a place where one of their other seven losses occurred, that being San Antonio. Lost in the Warriors' pursuit of history is that the Spurs have basically been just as impressive, if not moreso. It is San Antonio, not Golden State, that has the league's best scoring margin at +11.0 per game and not only are the Spurs off B2B losses for the 1st time all season, but they are at home where they're unbeaten (39-0 SU). The Warriors played last night and had to rally back from a 10-pt fourth quarter deficit to defeat injury-riddled Memphis, 100-99 (were -13). This is a bad spot for them. Lay the points. When I played the Spurs at home against the Warriors back on March 19th, I noted that the typically favorite-loving public actually has a natural inclination to take the points when two top teams are facing off and that there's usually some pretty good value on the chalk in such situations. Sure enough, after Golden State beat San Antonio 112-101 at home on Thursday (I won w/ the Over), the favorite is now a perfect 3-0 ATS in Warriors-Spurs matchups this year w/ every game decided by at least eight points. Again, San Antonio has not lost a single home game all season. Before resting starters Friday vs. Denver, they were 12-0 SU (10-2 ATS) off a loss and their average margin of victory in the situation remains 17.7 points per game as they allow fewer than 90 PPG. The Warriors are an impressive 8-2 SU/7-3 ATS when playing in the second of back to back road games this year, but clearly their pursuit of history has taken its toll and as recently as yesterday there were talks about forsaking the record in favor of saving themselves for what will be a challenging postseason (after the 1st round). Steph Curry, in particular, is showing signs of "wear and tear" as last night saw him go a woeful 3 of 14 from three-point range and the last game here in San Antonio he was 1 of 12. This game should give us the Spurs at their best while I can't say the same for the Warriors. That will be enough for the home team to win by a margin greater than what the oddsmakers are calling for here. 8* San Antonio |
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04-10-16 | Lakers v. Rockets -14 | Top | 110-130 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
8* Houston (3:30 ET): The Rockets suffered an embarrassing defeat on Thursday, dumping a game to the sorry Suns, 124-115 as 12-point chalk. That loss left them 1.5 games back of eighth place Utah w/ three to play. But a major reprieve came Friday night in the form of the Jazz losing (as 12.5-pt favorites) at home to the Clippers, again opening the door for Houston to get into the postseason. These final three games certainly look easy as James Harden and company will take on the Lakers, Minnesota and Sacramento w/ only the game against the T'wolves taking place on the road. Losing to a team like Phoenix is concerning as is the Rockets' lack of defense, but I'll still call for them to bounce back in a major way Sunday afternoon against the team that I feel is the worst in all of the NBA. These teams have previously met three times this season. All three times have resulted in blowout wins for the Rockets as the respective margins of victory have been: 29, 20 and 17. Two of those games were played in Los Angeles. Normally, given the situation ("must win" for the Rockets), you might think they'd be overvalued, but they're actually not as the last time they visited LA (January 17th) they were 10-pt favorites and covered easily, doing so despite missing 15 of 21 three-point attempts. It should be pointed out that against Phoenix, the Rockets led by as many as 13 in the second half and shot 56.1 percent for the game. How they could then lose is pretty unfathomable, although clearly you could point to the fact they gave up 36 second chance points, the most in any NBA game in six seasons. Defensively, the Rockets are bad, but thankfully the Lakers are even worse. Byron Scott's team (by the way, what an absolutely horrid coaching job Scott has done this year) is dead last in the league in defensive efficiency and allows 110.3 points per game on the road. That was a major reason I played them Over the total in their last game at New Orleans (which was a winning call) as they gave up exactly 110 to a Pelicans team that is w/o its top five scorers. Offensively, the Lakers have scored only 93 pts per 100 possessions against the Rockets this year and that includes Kobe Bryant actually shooting 54.1% from the floor. The league's worst jump shooter by a wide margin, Bryant isn't likely to shoot that ball that well here and that spells doom for a Lakers team that has been dominated on the glass in the three games vs. Houston. This should - and will - be an absolute blowout. 8* Houston |
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04-09-16 | Wolves v. Blazers -8.5 | Top | 106-105 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
10* Portland (10:35 ET): Sure, Minnesota is off B2B SU wins here, one of them the stunner of the year (at Golden State). But I see no reason why the Blazers shouldn't blow them out as all the motivational edges lie w/ the home team here. Portland has moved into 5th place in the Western Conference, passing injury-riddled Memphis, and can further cement their spot in the playoffs by winning here. The T'wolves, meanwhile, should be more focused on the lottery. Their last two wins have come on the road, but before that they had only 12 such victories and the Blazers happen to be a strong home team w/ a 27-12 record at the Moda Center thanks to a scoring average of 108.2 per game. This should turn into a lopsided game. Portland's "sweet spot" seems to be when playing w/ exactly two days rest as they are 10-3 straight up and against the spread. Their only loss in the last seven games came at Golden State (Warriors were off 1st home loss of the season) and almost all of the six wins have been by comfortable margins, including a 110-93 win against Miami here at home. Coming off a win over short-handed Oklahoma City (rested both Durant and Westbrook) and with the only two games remaining taking place here at home against Minnesota and Denver, you have to like this team's chances of finishing fifth. Offensively, they have averaged 114.4 points their last five games, scoring at least 110 in every game. That's too much firepower for Minnesota. Believe it or not, but the T'wolves were actually favored in both home games against Portland this season. But both games took place back before the New Year and the Blazers won both anyway. What a job HC Terry Stotts has done this year in the face of losing four starters (including All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge) from last year's squad. Since January 10th, the Blazers have won 28 of 41 games overall and they are 19-3 L22 at home I expect them to shoot well from three-point range in this matchup and Damian Lillard to break out of a recent slump. Meanwhile, Minnesota is very "feast or famine" offensively as four of the last seven games have seen them fail to break 85 points. 10* Portland |
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04-08-16 | Nets +15 v. Hornets | Top | 99-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
8* Brooklyn (7:05 ET): The Nets - by any measure - are not a good team. A six-game straight up (and against the spread) losing streak confirms that right off the bat. They are also just 21-57 SU for the year (7-32 in road games) and rate as the fourth worst team in the league, ahead of only Phoenix, Philadelphia and the Lakers. But while many other teams in a similar position are thinking about tanking for a better lottery position, Brooklyn has no such luxury. That's because their 1st round pick is owed to Boston, so the incentive to tank that those other teams may have really shouldn't be present here. I realize that the Nets' resume is hardly inspiring, but tonight's matchup w/ Charlotte reminds me of the Hornets' game last Friday against Philadelphia when I took the points and won. Do the same again here. Last Friday's spread vs. the 76ers, who some might consider to be the worst team in the league, had the Hornets favored by 13. I labeled that number "too rich for me" as rarely is this team in this price range. Tonight's spread is even higher and in fact is the most points Charlotte has had to lay since a game in March of '08 against an injury-depleted Heat squad that dressed only nine players. Including the non-cover LW vs. Philly, the Hornets are 1-2 ATS this year as a favorite of 12.5 or more points, all of those games coming here at home obviously. All three matchups w/ Brooklyn so far this season have been decided by single digits. Brooklyn's defense has been really bad of late, that I will concede. Wednesday, they allowed the Wizards to make 40 of 67 two-point attempts. That just can't happen. Some of that had to do with the decision to shut down both Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young for the remainder of the year. But I feel the remaining players will be quite hungry. Charlotte could be w/o Nic Batum here (Update: he is probable to play) and has lost its last two games w/ him out of the lineup. Don't look for Kemba Walker to be as hot as he was Wednesday vs. the Knicks (made 7 of 10 three-pointers) though and the Nets also have a winning ATS record this season when taking 12.5 or more points. They can - and will - stay within this generous number. 8* Brooklyn |
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04-07-16 | Raptors v. Hawks -6 | Top | 87-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (8:05 ET): This number might look a little "steep" to some and that was my initial thought as well, until I noticed the so-called "smart" money appeared to be hammering the Hawks. Despite receiving less than a majority of total bets, the line is going up here and that always seems to be a positive sign for a favorite a la Philadelphia was for me on Tuesday night. Toronto is essentially "locked into" the second seed in the East and really has nothing to play for these last few games while Atlanta is looking to earn at least home court advantage for a first round series, if not the #3 seed. They've been the hotter team of late (won 13 of 17) and have revenge for an eight-point loss in Toronto last week. Lay the points. Two of the Hawks' last four losses have come to the Raptors. In fact, they are 0-3 head to head w/ Toronto this season. So, psychologically, this is a game they need to win. It's not as if any of the three prior meetings were one-sided. Now that being said, the Raptors did lead by as many as 20, in Toronto, last week. I kind of thought the home team was a solid value in that one (-1), but here the tables have turned and it's an Atlanta team that's holding opponents to 97.7 PPG here at home that's the value. The Hawks have held their last seven opponents to just 40.2 percent shooting, which is obviously outstanding, and in the last game Phoenix (granted, a woeful team) couldn't break the 20-point barrier in any of the final three quarters. Toronto has won two of three since beating Atlanta last Wednesday and while their last two losses came at the hands of San Antonio and Oklahoma City, they've dropped three of five on the road w/ the only wins coming at the expense of injury-riddled teams, Memphis and New Orleans. The offense has failed to score 100 points in three consecutive contests and it should be pointed out that outside of facing their own division (which has three terrible teams), the Raptors' ATS record is downright mediocre. 10* Atlanta |
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04-05-16 | Pelicans v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 93-107 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The Sixers are....favored? You would think that such a thing would have me running to the other side, but it's obviously important to understand why the line is what it is and in this case, their opponent (New Orleans) is very injured (no Anthony Davis) and ripe for a fall (are actually off B2B wins). Plus, crazy as it sounds, Philadelphia has been a great bet in the chalk role this season, going a perfect 3-0 ATS! They've beaten Brooklyn, Phoenix and the Lakers all here at home, winning two of those games by double digits! Those would of course be the three other worst teams in the league (not including themselves) and New Orleans is probably next in the pecking order. The Sixers are trying to avoid matching the 1972-73 squad for the league's worst all-time single season record (need one more win). This is their chance to do it. Lay the points. Other than Memphis, New Orleans has probably been the most banged up team in the league this year. Right now, no team has more injuries than this one as Anthony Davis, Ryan Anderson, Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holliday and Norris Cole are all out. Those are their top five scorers (if you're keeping track at home), their two top rebounders and the top two in assists. Still, they've somehow managed to post B2B victories, beating Denver and Brooklyn, the latter coming Tuesday as the Pelicans shot 55.3% from the floor in a 106-87 rout on the road. Considering the current state of the team, I just cannot see them winning two in a row on the road where they are only 9-29 SU for the year. An analysis of early line movement here reveals that despite a majority of tickets being written on the Pelicans side, the number has still gone up, which is a likely reflection of the so-called "smart money" being on the side of the Sixers. It makes sense because the vast majority of bettors are going to see that New Orleans has won B2B games while Philly is on a 12-gm losing streak. But the 76ers certainly have been competitive in their last two games, first taking Charlotte down to the wire on Friday and then doing the same vs. Indiana the next night. The final scores may not reflect it, but those were close games most of the way. Here, they finally get that elusive 10th win of the season. 10* Philadelphia |
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04-04-16 | Villanova +3 v. North Carolina | Top | 77-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
10* Villanova (9:20 ET): And we're down to two. Those two, Villanova and North Carolina both steamrolled their way into Monday's Title Game w/ the former producing the largest margin of victory in Final Four history (my *10* NCAA Game of the Year). Curiously, the "lookahead" line for this particular matchup had UNC -1.5, so I'm surprised to see a bigger number here, especially because I consider Villanova to be the better team. Remember that the Wildcats have already ousted what was the tourney favorite (Kansas) and there other four wins have come by an average of 29 points per game. UNC has won all five of its matchups by double digits, but the key here will be a 'Nova defense that's allowing just 60.6 PPG in the Tournament going against a Tar Heels squad that struggles to shoot from the outside. I'm on the underdog here and would not be shocked at an outright upset. Take the points. While both teams have been equally impressive in their respective runs to tonight's Title Game, Villanova has clearly faced a harder slate of opponents. They've gone against Iowa, Miami, Kansas and Oklahoma, all of whom spent significant time in the Top 15 this year. Look at whom UNC has faced and you'll realize that they've been a bit "lucky" as really Indiana was the only perceived threat among the group of opponents. They were favored by at least 9.5 in every other game and got to take on a six seed in the Elite 8 and then a seven seed in the Final Four. Meanwhile, Nova benefited from no such upsets, save for (I guess) facing a 2-seed in the Final Four. In my analysis for that Nova-Oklahoma matchup, I made mention of the Wildcats' incredible ATS mark vs. non-conference teams, which has now reached 31-12 L43 (13-4 this season). Overall, Nova is 66-37 ATS in all games the L3 seasons. The fact that Villanova is allowing just 60.6 PPG in the Tournament (especially considering the list of those opponents) is just as impressive as the fact they're averaging 84.8 (at 1.31 per possession). Keep in mind they just held Kansas and Oklahoma, both of whom averaged over 80 PPG, to just 59 and 51 points respectively. What's keeping this team undervalued is all the past NCAA Tournament failures, but that's all "water under the bridge" now. I have them rated as the better of the two teams here, so naturally I'm all over them as a dog. 10* Villanova |
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04-03-16 | Pacers v. Knicks +4 | Top | 92-87 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
10* New York (7:35 ET): Last night's Indiana game treated me well as I had the Over, but a late surge by the Pacers was needed for their backers to earn a cover. Considering who the opponent was (Philadelphia), that's not a particularly encouraging sign, especially after the team had dumped four of its previous five games against the spread. Here, we find them, in the second game of a back to back, laying points on the road to a Knicks team that came out victorious Friday here at home vs. Brooklyn. Granted, the Nets aren't any good either, but it was New York's largest margin of victory (14 points) since a March 9th trouncing of Phoenix. This line should be closer to a pick 'em according to the power rankings. Take the points. The Pacers actually trailed the Sixers (by three) entering the fourth quarter last night before outscoring the league's worst team 41-25 the rest of the way. Yet they were actually DOWN by six at one point in the fourth and it was a tie game with just 3:39 remaining. So, it really was a late surge (17-4 run to close the game) that stole the cover thanks to five Philly turnovers in the final four minutes. Indiana still has a losing road record (17-21 SU) and keep in mind that last night's tough battle with Philly came on the heels of bad home losses to the Magic and Bulls. They are just 5-10 straight up in the second game of a back to back this season as well. I haven't even mentioned yet how the Sixers played short-handed last night! The Knicks may be a bit short-handed here as well, but that doesn't mean they aren't a great value. It was a three-point game in Indiana back in February (Knicks covered as 6-pt dogs), so again, this line should be closer to pick 'em. Defensively, the Knicks have surprised recently by holding four of their last five opponents under 100 points. Note that they beat the Nets w/o either Jose Calderon or Kristaps Porzingis in the starting lineup. Winning outright here is obviously a greater challenge, but I certainly give them a shot at home and note this team has really only been blown out once since St. Patrick's Day (in Cleveland). 10* New York |
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04-03-16 | Wizards v. Clippers -6 | Top | 109-114 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 4 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (3:35 ET): Personally, I'm stunned that this line isn't higher considering the Clips will be at full strength (Jordan, Paul, Redick all rested last game) and that includes Blake Griffin, who makes his long anticipated return Sunday afternoon. Yes, Griffin is reportedly still dealing with a quad tear. But even w/o his services this line would be too low as Washington continues to sport a negative efficiency rating in spite of its fleeting playoff hopes. The Wiz have won only two of their last six games, the wins coming at the expense of the Lakers and Sunday, while the Clips minus all those players still found a way to almost beat Oklahoma City its last time out (lost 119-117 as 17-pt underdogs!). Lay the points here. Overall, LA comes into this afternoon's contest riding a four-game ATS win streak. In addition to what would have been a monumental upset of OKC, they've also posted three double digit victories during this time frame, two of them coming here at Staples Center. After watching the Clips score 117 points w/o their four of their top five scorers Friday night, I see no reason why we shouldn't be expecting another big offensive performance here w/ the team now at "full strength." Washington is somewhat of a disaster defensively (allows 105.1 PPG on the road) and recently gave up 120 in a loss to Sacramento. The first time these teams met (Clips w/o Griffin), it was a 108-91 LA beatdown (in D.C.). Overall, the Clips are 7-1 ATS vs. the Southeast Division this year. Not only is Washington bad defensively, but on offense they are very inefficient. By now, everyone is aware of the fast pace (5th in the league) the team intends to play at, but the problem has been that they are just 22nd in efficiency, averaging just 1.02 points per possession. For a frame of reference, the Clippers rank 6th in offensive efficiency. This is also the Wizards' fifth consecutive game out West (over an 8-day span) and they didn't even get the benefit of playing consecutively in Los Angeles (trip started last Sunday vs. the Lakers). So, fatigue could definitely be a factor here. Before Friday night's win and cover at lowly Phoenix, the Wiz were just 7-14 ATS when coming off three straight road games. 10* LA Clippers |
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04-03-16 | Thunder -3 v. Rockets | Top | 110-118 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma City (3:30 ET): I'd have to say that Houston has been one of my top go-against teams this season in NBA. They were due to "give some back" anyway after league-leading 58% ATS rate last season and this year they simply have not been that good as is reiterated by an efficiency rating that's been "in the red" virtually all season long. They are actually pretty lucky that the West is top-heavy and thus not very deep because in the past a .500 record could not get you into the playoffs in this Conference. Right now, they are two games below the "Mendoza Line" and trail Dallas/Utah by one game. I know that means they are desperate and have a lot to play for, but still, the Thunder are simply much better than what this pointspread indicates. Perhaps the reason for this short line is the fact that OKC struggled to beat a severely undermanned Clippers team its last time out. That game saw them prevail by just two, although considering who LA was sitting (Paul, Redick and Jordan) and the line ballooning to -17, I think it would actually be understandable that OKC would overlook the game entirely. It also hurt that the Clippers somehow went 16 for 29 from three-point range in the game. That made it two straight ATS losses for the Thunder as w/o Kevin Durant they lost outright in Detroit, who held them to 82 points. Maybe the Rockets are capable of the kind of three-point proliferation we saw from the Clippers in the last game, but certainly not the kind of defense we saw from the Pistons. By the way, OKC has won 9 of its last 10 overall. Now Houston is 3-0 ATS vs. OKC this year, but that includes two covers on the road when they were getting way more points than they are here. Of late, the Rockets have not played well, dropping five of seven and one of those wins was a massive comeback against a LeBron-less Cleveland squad. Defensively, this is just a terrible team as they give up 106.6 points per game, which should be feasted upon by the second most efficient offensive team in the league. Houston is off an outright loss (were 6-pt favorites) here at home to what had been a struggling Chicago squad. I don't see this step up in class going well for them. 8* Oklahoma City |
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04-02-16 | Syracuse +9.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 66-83 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 14 m | Show |
8* Syracuse (8:45 ET): Some were surprised that the Orange didn't open as double digit underdogs for this National Semifinal vs. still-heavily favored North Carolina, but I for one was not as there hasn't been a double digit spread in any Final Four game in the last 15 years. For the record, I think the underdog is actually a little undervalued heading into this one as this will be their third "crack" at the Tar Heels and with double revenge on their mind, they're a strong play plus the points. Question the inclusion of Jim Boeheim's team among the field of 68 all you want, but the fact is that they have played remarkably well for more than 80% of the total game time (did fall behind Virginia before stunning rally) since the Tournament got underway. Also, Syracuse is a perfect 10-0 ATS the L10 times it has taken the court with five or six days rest, including 3-0 this season. Take the points. Looking at the two meetings from the regular season, both won by North Carolina, the final margins were 11 and 5 points. Both games featured terrible three-point shooting from each side and given this rubber match takes place in Houston's NRG Stadium, I'd expect that trend to continue. The key to the Tar Heels' 84-73 victory at the Carrier Dome back on January 9th was that they shot 29 of 45 on two-point attempts, which won't be duplicated here, as that was Boeheim's first game back from his well-publicized suspension. Points off turnovers were also huge for UNC (in both games) as they averaged 16.5 per game. But be aware that Syracuse has turned the ball over 10 times or fewer in each of the last three games. They did not turn the ball over once (in 32 possessions) in the second half vs. Virginia, who is a much better defensive team than North Carolina. The 62 points Syracuse allowed to Virginia in Sunday's Elite 8 matchup was the most they've given up in any tournament game thus far. North Carolina has the benefit of having previously taken on the Boeheim zone twice this year, but Virginia had also previously faced them and came up with a lower-scoring effort the second time around. The Tar Heels, similarly, saw a decrease in offensive production from the first meeting to the second and it only stands to reason that the third will see yet another decrease. While the final scores seem to all indicate that UNC has had an easy time this tournament, only the game vs. Indiana was really a blowout from wire to wire and it needs to be reiterated that they have yet to face a truly great, or even good, defensive team. Syracuse has gone against three top 25 opponents in defensive efficiency so far (plus Middle Tennessee) while the most efficient defense UNC has seen to this point would be Providence, who was 27th (all others were 74th or lower!). I look for this to be a tight game. 8* Syracuse |
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04-02-16 | Villanova -2 v. Oklahoma | Top | 95-51 | Win | 100 | 90 h 30 m | Show |
10* Villanova (6:05 ET): Clearly, "ghosts of Tournaments past" seem to have undervalued Jay Wright's team coming into this year's edition of the Big Dance. Nova's well-publicized failure to make it past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament each of the past five seasons resulted in many (myself included) skeptical of a potential Final Four run this year, especially with Tourney favorite Kansas being the 1-seed in their bracket. But Wright's Wildcats beat the Jayhawks and did so in impressive fashion, leading most of the way and allowing only 59 points in the process. While it has been Villanova's offense grabbing the headlines in this tournament (at least in the first three games), the defense has held the opposition to an average of just 63 PPG and that's while facing three of the top 24 offenses in terms of efficiency in the entire country! They are my choice to get to Monday's Final. Oklahoma's shooting this year has been quite remarkable. As a team, they have made almost 43 percent of their three-point attempts this season and shockingly have been slightly better than that in the Tournament despite nearly half of their total shots coming from behind the arc! Of course, they are seemingly overly dependent on one player, that being Buddy Hield, who went for 37 points (8 of 13 from 3-pt range) in the Sooners' 80-68 Elite 8 victory over Oregon that I called correctly. Of course, I was no real fan of the Ducks and also noted the Hield was coming off a sub-par effort (by his standard) and likely to have a big game there. I do not see him nor the team shooting as well Saturday in Houston's somewhat cavernous NRG Stadium. Note that despite all their exploits, OU has been somewhat mispriced by the oddsmakers for much of the season (just 14-20 ATS overall), especially of late (just 5-11 ATS since the start of February). Meanwhile, Villanova has been a huge money-maker the past three seasons at 65-37 ATS. Interestingly, though more tickets have been written on the Sooners here, the line moved from -1 to -2 (even as high as -2.5 in some places) rather quickly. While the other national semifinal is a matchup of conference foes and thus we'll obviously have regular season matchups to analyze, this too is a regular season rematch as back on December 7th Oklahoma handed Villanova its worst loss of the season, 78-55 at Pearl Harbor (Villanova was a five-point favorite there). Nova shot a woeful 31.7% from the floor in that game (was only a six-point deficit at halftime) including a disastrous 4 for 32 from three-point range (OU was 14 of 26 from behind the arc). As you might expect, Hield had a solid game, but only scored 18 points and I think this Nova defense can contain him again and the rest of the Sooners for that matter the second go around. The Wildcats are a remarkable 30-12 ATS their L42 non-conference games, had more "true" road wins and a better point differential during the regular season than did Oklahoma, and are more likely to be better on both ends of the court in this rematch. Don't discount the impact free-throw shooting might have either; Nova is 95 percent the last two games from the charity stripe. Kris Jenkins, not Hield, will be the player to watch in this game. 10* Villanova |
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04-01-16 | Heat -7.5 v. Kings | Top | 112-106 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
8* Miami (10:05 ET): This is a spread that my own personal power ratings wouldn't agree with, but what the power ratings don't know is that Sacramento's Boogie Cousins is suspended here and that we have one team (Miami) coming off an embarrassing loss (to the Lakers) while the other (Sacramento) pulled a moderate upset its last time out (were +1.5 in a 120-111 win over Washington here at home). The Kings have surprisingly covered six of their last seven games (including four straight), but I look for that success to come to an end here as they are w/o their best player, not to mention are a bad team off a win and that typically makes for fade material the next time out. Lay the points. Miami ought to be fairly ashamed of itself for dumping a game to the Lakers (in overtime) on Wednesday. They were huge 10-point favorites in that one, but turned the ball over 18 times and missed 11 free throws in the two-point loss. I'll chalk that up to being "one of those games" as this team has actually played quite well of late as the offense scored at least 100 points in every game but one (at San Antonio) during the month of March. They've won 11 of 16 overall and should bounce back offensively here (after shooting just 3 of 17 from three-point range against the Lakers) against the most inept defensive team in the league (Kings allow 109 points per game). Joe Johnson certainly has been a revelation since coming over from Brooklyn (key to the offensive surge) as has Hassan Whiteside, who off the bench has 17 double doubles in the L20 games. This is a good team. The Kings are not a good team, especially when they are w/o Cousins. They've lost 10 of 12 when their best player is suspended or injured and as a home underdog in this price range (+6.5 to 9), they've come up empty as well this year, going 0 for 5 against the spread. Miami is an opponent that has certainly had their number through the years as the Heat have won 29 of the last 36 meetings (28-8 ATS) including eight of ten here in Sacramento. Coming off a SU win as an underdog, the Kings are just 13-27 ATS L40 (4-7 this year). Meanwhile, the Heat are 9-5 SU/ATS off an outright loss as a favorite. 8* Miami |
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04-01-16 | Mavs +6 v. Pistons | Top | 98-89 | Win | 100 | 18 h 1 m | Show |
8* Dallas (7:35 ET): In the wake of the Chandler Parsons injury, the Mavs seem to have become undervalued in recent weeks and such is the case tonight here in Detroit. Now, let's be honest here. The Pistons have been red hot at home as they've won 9 of 11 in the Motor City w/ both losses coming at the hands of the same team (Atlanta). They've moved into seventh in the East (passed Indiana) and are currently two games clear of the ninth place Bulls (who won last night). But despite all the recent success, this team still outscores its opponents by less than one point per game over the course of the season and actually still sports a negative efficiency rating. They don't shoot the ball particularly well either. I'm taking the points. Following a 2-10 SU stretch where they actually played better than that record indicates, the Mavs have recorded much needed B2B victories this week. The first, I was on, and it came at Denver. They followed that up w/ a two-point home win against the Knicks. What I'm most pleased to see here is that they allowed just 88 and 89 points in those games. Note that seven of this team's last 10 losses have been by seven points or less. They too are fighting for their playoff lives as Houston's loss last night leaves Dallas in a tie for seventh (w/ Utah), one-half game ahead of the ninth place Rockets. They need this game every bit as much as the Pistons do and that makes the points look attractive, especially considering the Mavs are 7-3 ATS this year as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. I mentioned Detroit's poor shooting numbers earlier. In terms of "true" shooting, which weighs free throw shooting and three-point shooting, the team is 28th in the league, ahead of only Philadelphia and the Lakers. This is a prime letdown situation for the Pistons, who are coming off an emotional upset of Oklahoma City on Tuesday. That 88-82 victory (were +2.5) saw them shoot the ball poorly as well. I would look for Dirk Nowitzki (just 9 for 40 L2 games) to have a bounce back performance for Dallas, who has revenge from a six-point home loss suffered last month to Detroit. This spread is too high. 8* Dallas |
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04-01-16 | 76ers +15.5 v. Hornets | Top | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Over the last two months, the 76ers have beaten exactly one team (twice), that being Brooklyn. They have 25 losses against those two victories and clearly things remain bad in the City of Brotherly Love. But despite that, this spread looks a little "rich" for Charlotte, who admittedly did just beat the Sixers in the front end of a home and home (by 15) on Tuesday. But with "big" road games looming against the top two teams in the East (Cleveland, Toronto), I would not be the least bit surprised if the Hornets "overlooked" this contest. They've beaten Philly three times already this season, all by 15 pts or more, but I see this being the closest game of the season series. Take the points. This will mark the most points that Charlotte has had to lay in any game this season. The previous high was 12.5, done twice, against Phoenix and the Lakers. They split those games at the betting window and are just 20-18 ATS when favored overall. March was the franchise's best record in history, as they went 13-3 straight up, and going back at bit further they are 19-5 SU their last 24 games. I've been touting this team for much of the campaign, but I think we've reached a bit of a "tipping point" here. I don't see Philadelphia shooting as poorly as they did on Tuesday (31.3 percent) and thus it should be a little bit closer. Obviously, the Sixers just want this season to be over, but they do have something to play for and that's avoiding the worst single season record in league history. This has gotten far less attention than the Warriors chase of MJ's Bulls, but if Philadelphia loses out, then they will match the 1972-73 team for the worst record in league history at 9-73 SU. I'm sure that's on the players' minds. Note that they were unexpectedly tough in the previous three road games, losing to Denver on a buzzer-beater, staying within three of Portland and even falling by just 12 (were +22!) at Golden State. Unlike the Hornets, the Sixers are accustomed to this price range and are 8-7 ATS when getting at least 12.5 from the oddsmakers this season. When getting 15 or more, they are 6-2 against the spread! 8* Philadelphia |
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03-31-16 | Celtics +3 v. Blazers | Top | 109-116 | Loss | -107 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
10* Boston (10:05 ET): The Celtics are off a bad loss here, 114-90 to the Clippers where they were outshot 52.4% to 34.8%. That represented their lowest scoring output in more than a month; in fact, you'd have to go all the way back to a December 15th loss in Cleveland (89-77)to find the last time they were held under 90 pts in a game. It's pretty remarkable that for a two-month stretch (January 12th to March 11th), this team was held under 100 points only twice in 28 games. So, I'm fairly confident that we'll be seeing an uptick in offense here as the C's visit Portland. Typically, when the oddsmakers are anticipating a high-scoring game (210-pt total or higher), Boston performs well as they 27-12 ATS in that situation the L3 seasons (16-9 ATS this year) including 15-5 ATS when on the road (8-4 ATS this year). Take the points. In my latest power rankings, I have Boston rated roughly three points better than Portland, meaning this line should basically be a pick 'em and because it's not, the Celtics are a good value in the underdog role. Now Portland has been a real "overachiever" for much of this season and I continue to "tip my cap" to the job HC Terry Stotts has done here (lost four starters from LY, including All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge). They are 16-3 their L19 home games (averaging 114.4 PPG L10), including a 105-93 win over Sacramento Monday night. But, I get the sense that the Blazers have "plateaued" a bit as they are only .500 (7-7 SU) in March & this is the first time all month that they are coming off consecutive victories. Early in the month, these teams met (in Boston) and the Celtics prevailed 116-93 as 6.5-point chalk. Portland was hotter at the time and given the final score there, again, it shows the line here should be closer to a pick em. The Blazers' best player, Damian Lillard, is just a 35.2% career shooter vs. Boston and has been held below 20 points in his L3 games overall. Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley actually looked like the better backcourt in that first meeting and I'm hopeful that the Celtics will be getting Jae Crowder (missed L8 games) back tonight as well. Regardless, Portland is just 2-4 SU and ATS as a home favorite of three points or less this year. 10* Boston |
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03-31-16 | George Washington v. Valparaiso -2 | Top | 76-60 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
10* Valparaiso (7:00 ET): I've cashed George Washington now twice in their last three games and both times they were a slight underdog that (obviously) took the game straight up. First, they won on the road at Monmouth (a #1 seed in this tournament), and did so pretty convincingly, by a score of 87-71. Then, after I actually faded them (unsuccessfully) against Florida, I was back on the Colonials bandwagon as they won their NIT semifinal matchup with San Diego State handily, 65-46 as three-point pups. But I've also taken Valparaiso in this tournament, back when they thrashed St. Mary's in the quarterfinals, 60-44 as only 3.5-point favorites. In my analysis for that matchup, I said the Crusaders were my choice to win the NIT (thought they'd be playing Florida here) and I'm not deviating from that assertion. Valpo won its semifinal matchup by only two points, 72-70 over BYU. But the Horizon League regular season champs have lost only six times all year, unfortunately one of those came in the Conference Tournament (in overtime) to WI-Green Bay. They twice lost to Wright State during the regular season, once by nine points, but other than that their largest margin of defeat all season came by only six points at Oregon. This is a really good team. They had a 14-point halftime lead Tuesday vs. BYU, but the offense struggled in the second half and they needed a game-winner in the final seconds just to advance. That being said, the Crusaders defense ought to be commended for holding BYU, who came in averaging over 84 PPG, to just 70. Over the course of the season, Valpo has been quite stingy (62.4 PPG allowed) which should serve them well here against a GW side that has scored 80 or more four straight times prior to the last game. George Washington, of course, just faced another 'stingy' D in the form of San Diego State. The Aztecs held them to only 60 points, well below the Colonials' normal scoring average, but the problem for SDSU was that they scored only 46 themselves on what was a dreadful shooting night (28.8% overall including 3 for 22 from three-point range!). I don't see those kind of offensive struggles taking place here for Valpo, who can score in its own right (75.6 PPG) and is 10-2 ATS the L3 seasons when taking the court with just one day's rest. Something to consider here is that Valpo has the better depth and one of GW's only seven rotation players, senior guard Joe McDonald, sprained his ankle Tuesday. That could prove to be the difference right there. 10* Valparaiso |
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03-30-16 | Warriors -5 v. Jazz | Top | 103-96 | Win | 102 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
10* Golden State (9:05 ET): I took the Warriors last night and despite them falling behind early (trailed by nine in the first half), it appeared as if they would pull out the cover when they had a 19-point fourth quarter lead. But they failed to close strong, getting outscored 18-7 over the game's final six minutes. Still, it was a comfortable win, which is nothing new for a team outscoring its opponents by a historic 11.1 points per game this season. Here, they draw a Utah team off a historic margin of their own, that being a 45-point victory over the sorry Lakers Monday night. The size of that win works against the Jazz here as they are a bit overvalued at home against the defending NBA champs. It was only earlier this month when they failed to cover in Oakland (as 14-pt dogs), losing 115-94. Lay the short number here. Using the line from that last meeting as a barometer, a clear case can be made that Golden State is being undervalued here. That also has to do with they are playing w/o rest, a situation that has really not mattered to them all year as they are 16-2 straight up. They are also 3-0 vs. the Jazz. At this point, do I really need to run through the Warriors' exploits? All they need is a 6-2 SU finish to finish with the best single season record in NBA history, so that will keep them motivated and save for the two upcoming games vs. San Antonio, this may be the shortest line they see the rest of the way. Yes, they come in at just 1-5 ATS their last six games overall, but they were double digit favorites in four of those non-covers and an underdog at San Antonio in the other. My natural reaction is to automatically fade any team coming off the kind of win the Jazz are here. In terms of class of opponent, it's really going from the "outhouse" (Lakers) to the "penthouse" (Warriors) and recall that Utah's only loss over its last five games came to Oklahoma City by 22 points. Their last six games against the top three in the West have all resulted in double digit defeats, in fact the closest they have been in any of those games is 18 points. For a team that sometimes struggles to score (only 97.9 PPG), keeping pace with the Warriors will be a chore. 10* Golden State |
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03-30-16 | Morehead State v. Nevada -4 | Top | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 21 h 25 m | Show |
8* Nevada (9:00 ET): This is Game 2 of the CBI Finals, a best 2 of 3 series that saw Morehead State draw "first blood" (at home) on Monday. It was a close game, however, with Nevada covering as 5.5-pt dogs (number was bet up) in an 86-83 final. Back in Reno, I have no problem laying points with the Wolfpack, who are 14-3 SU at home this season (avg MOV = 10.2 points per game). Plus, last year was just the second time in the history of this event (dates back to 2008) where the Final did not go the full three games. The vast majority of games in the history of this best 2 out of 3 format in the CBI have been won by the home team, so I'll look for that trend to continue here & Nevada force a deciding game on Friday (which would be here in Reno as well). Nevada actually outshot Morehead State on Monday, connecting on over 50 percent of their field goal attempts, including 7 of 16 from three-point range. It had to be a little bit demoralizing to hold Morehead State to just 4 of 16 shooting from behind the arc, yet still give up 86 points. Still though, I can't see the Eagles being that prolific tonight on the road where they average only 70.2 PPG for the season. They have pulled upsets over both Siena and Ohio in this tournament, but still are only 8-9 straight up in "true" road games. They have been a very solid bet plus the points on the road (9-2-1 ATS), but this is a pretty short number even for a team that has won 11 of its last 12. Morehead State never led by more than seven in Game 1 and there's a big difference between Nevada on the road (5-10 SU) vs. at home (14-3 SU). As a home favorite, the Wolfpack are 11-1 SU this season. That lone loss came in the regular season finale (vs. New Mexico) as a one-point choice. Coming off a SU loss, this team has been an excellent bet to bounce back as they are 7-4 ATS, winning by an average margin of 11.8 points per game! On just one day's rest, they are also 3-1 SU, 3-0 ATS, winning by an average margin of 21.3 points per game. Meanwhile, outside of games where they've gotten to enjoy at least three days rest, Morehead State is only 9-9 SU while posting a negative scoring differential. 8* Nevada |
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03-30-16 | Clippers -5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 99-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (8:05 ET): We're getting Minnesota, off a win, taking only a short number, so it's probably a great time to fade in this situation. Especially with the Clippers having seemingly "found their groove" w/ B2B impressive wins over the Nuggets & Celtics. Both wins came by double digits and Monday saw them really thrash a good Boston team, 114-90 as four-point home favorites. The T'wolves victory on Monday came at the expense of lowly Phoenix, 121-116, and they failed to cover as six-point home chalk. While a respectable 5-4 SU their last nine games overall, the T'wolves are just 7-17 SU off a SU win this year and have posted consecutive victories only twice since X-Mas. Lay the short number here. Those concerned about potentially laying points w/ the Clips should take solace in the team's impressive 6-1 ATS record this season as road chalk of 3.5 to 6 points. Over the last three seasons, they are 19-5 ATS in that same price range (as road team) and going back further we find them at 45-16 ATS L61! While they just went 1-4 SU on their most recent road trip, that included games vs. both San Antonio and Golden State. A return to Staples Center was just what "the doctor ordered" as they swept the three games, allowing just 94, 90 and 90 points. Now they may not even need to be quite that stingy again here considering the T'wolves are allowing 106 points per game this season, including an an average of 110.2 the L5 games. Opponents are shooting 47% against them overall. Believe it or not, but Minnesota did beat the Clippers (in LA!), 108-102 (as 10.5-pt dogs) back in early February. That win snapped a 14-game losing streak to the Clips overall as they shot better than 50 percent from the floor. But while Minny is a surprising 11th in offensive efficiency, they are 27th on the defensive end and that's a bad matchup with a Clippers team that is 6th in offensive efficiency & 7th in defensive efficiency. All three games this year have been relatively close, but I anticipate a different story here as for whatever reason the T'wolves have been really lousy at home this year, going not just 13-24 straight up (to be expected), but also 13-23-1 ATS. 10* LA Clippers |
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03-29-16 | Wizards v. Warriors -12.5 | Top | 94-102 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
8* Golden State (10:35 ET): The Warriors have seen their ATS record go down in recent weeks, but they appear to be undervalued in this spot as the Wizards come calling. Yes, Golden State has failed to cover in four of their last five, but in three of those they were DD faves (as they are here) and another was at San Antonio. What I don't like about this matchup for Washington is that they are likely to make the mistake of attempting to play at the Warriors' pace (both teams are in the top six in terms of pace of play). They don't have near the defensive capabilities (104.4 PPG allowed) to keep the NBA champs in check, so don't be surprised when this one turns into a blowout. Lay the points. Golden State averages 115.5 points per game. At home, their average margin of victory is 15.3 PPG. When these teams met in D.C. nearly two months ago (Feb 3), the Warriors won by 13, 134-121 as 9.5-point chalk. Using that number as a baseline, they are underpriced for this rematch. Obviously, GSW will continue to be motivated by their chase of Chicago's all-time single season record (72 wins). A win tonight matches last year's total of 67, which means that they and the Bulls would be the only teams to win 67+ games in consecutive seasons. We don't have to worry about GSW winning here (35-0 SU at home this year) as they have 47 straight wins as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more and they should carve the Wizards defense up. Washington's move to a faster pace hasn't really worked out this year even though they are now one game above .500. But they're still only 9th in the East and this is a matchup with one of the five teams that plays faster than them. I think that a lot of people fail to recognize that the Warriors rank fifth in defensive efficiency. As a road underdog of 12.5 points or more, the Wiz are just 4-60 straight up including a non-cover their only time in this role this season, which was a 19-pt loss at San Antonio back on December 16th. Washington has been playing a lot of bad teams recently, including a win over the Lakers two nights ago, and clearly this is a big step up. 8* Golden State |
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03-29-16 | George Washington +3 v. San Diego State | Top | 65-46 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
10* George Washington (9:00 ET): The Colonials surprised me in their quarterfinal matchup vs. Florida (playing its third straight road game), winning 82-77 as a 1.5-point fave. Of course, they didn't surprise me when I took them against Monmouth and they delivered an 87-71 outright victory. Their semifinal opponent here is San Diego State, who has gotten to play all three of its NIT games to this point at home and won them all by double digits. I concede that the fact that the Aztecs have dropped only three games since the New Year, all by five points or less, but remember that the Mountain West was historically weak this season. I have these teams rated pretty much dead even, so taking the points is the way to go. Before this tournament got underway, San Diego State was just 7-6 SU vs. non-conference foes, clearly an inferior record when compared to GW's 11-2 mark. In comparison to GW, SDSU's path to MSG has been easier. That coupled with the easier conference slate has me believing that the oddsmakers have mispriced the teams in this one. The Aztecs have been favored in every game since the start of February, which is perhaps why the oddsmakers have them laying points again here. But note they are only 13-11 ATS as chalk this year, making them basically a coinflip proposition. Their offensive production has been way above normal here in the NIT and that's one trend that I do not expect to continue. GW, meanwhile, is a team known for its scoring. They average 75.9 PPG and have been at 82 points or higher in all three NIT games so far. In fact, only once in their last six games have the Colonials not scored at least 80 pts. That's a lot when you consider SDSU only averages 66 PPG. Yes, the Aztecs have the edge defensively (2nd in efficiency). But we just watched GW score 82 points against a Florida team that ranked inside the top 25 in efficiency. Don't be surprised if free throw shooting helps decide this one as GW is an impressive 75.1% from the charity stripe while San Diego State is at just 68%. In the end, I expect the dog to take this one outright. 10* George Washington |
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03-29-16 | Nets +6.5 v. Magic | Top | 105-139 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:05 ET): The Nets didn't fare too well last night, losing 110-99 in Miami. Though I had the Under (won!), I wasn't the least bit surprised at the margin of victory there either. I think it's important to recall, however, that Brooklyn had won its previous two games (Cleveland, Indiana) outright. As I pointed out in yday's analysis, those games did come at home, but tonight's road game is a drop in class from last night as they take on a Magic squad that had lost six in a row before pulling an upset their last time out, 111-89 over Chicago as 6.5-pt dogs. They're due for a letdown off that result as I still would not trust them in this price range seeing as they've lost outright two of the last three times they've been a favorite. Teams playing in the second night of a back to back are often undervalued, especially if playing on the road. It's highly unlikely that Orlando will shoot 57.1% here like Miami did last night vs. the Nets, so right there we're getting a bit of a reprieve. Also, Brooklyn had to withstand a career-high 27 points from the Heat's Hassan Whiteside last night and they turned the ball over 20 times (leading to 23 Miami points). Again, I do not foresee Brooklyn being so bad again here nor their opponent playing so well. Lost in the loss last night was that the Nets shot 53.2 percent. Offensively, this team has done quite well of late. Only once in March have they been held below 99 points. That makes them attractive at this price range. Orlando has been playing without its two leading scorers for the past several games. It does appear as if Victor Oladipo is going to be back here, but Nikola Vucevic's status remains up in the air (doubtful). Again, this team is just 4-12 SU in March. They are just 7-13 SU after scoring 105 or more points this season. They won't match their near 54% shooting from the last game and while they are 3-0 vs. the Nets so far this season, two of those wins were by seven points or less. This team has not won B2B games since before the All-Star Break. Even if they manage to do so here, there's now a margin they have to deal with and that's simply too big of an ask for a team still 13 games below .500. 10* Brooklyn |
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03-29-16 | Cal-Irvine v. Columbia -1.5 | Top | 67-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
8* Columbia (7:00 ET): It's come down to this for the CIT Championship, the first of FIVE tournaments to be decided this week. UC Irvine has been the road team in every game during this event, the first two (at North Dakota, LA Lafayette) being close victories and then the Anteaters caught a massive break on Sunday when Coastal Carolina's point guard was arrested the night before the semifinal matchup. Meanwhile, Columbia has enjoyed the benefit of playing all of its CIT games at home (team actually PAY to host in this event!). The Lions have won two of its three games in blowout fashion, including Sunday's semifinal vs. NJIT, 80-65 as nine-point chalk. I'm stunned to see how low the number is for the final and will gladly lay it. Getting this game at home is a pretty big deal for the Ivy League contingent. Columbia is 17-4 SU at home this season w/ an average margin of victory of 11.2 points per game. They had little problem w/ New Jersey Tech on Sunday, jumping out to double digit lead at halftime and never really looking back. It was the second CIT game where they broke the 80-point barrier, not to mention the sixth time they've done it in the L10 games. This is one of the best Columbia teams in history as they've already established program highs for most overall wins in a season (24) and non-conference wins (14). The Lions have now won 100 games in the six seasons under HC Kyle Smith. As alluded to above, UC Irvine was a tremendous beneficiary of Coastal Carolina losing their starting point guard 24 hours before tip off. As a result, the Chanticleers shot only 27.4% from the field. That was after the Anteaters' previous opponent (LA Lafayette) shot just 32.9%. I find it hard to believe that Columbia will be so inept offensively in this one. This is also UC Irvine's fourth consecutive road game. They had to do that once during the regular season, at Oregon of all places, and ended up losing that game by double digits. This marks the first time all season that UC Irvine has won three consecutive road games. Again, their first two wins in this event came by a combined four points. 8* Columbia |
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03-28-16 | Mavs +1.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 97-88 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
8* Dallas (9:05 ET): Oh my. What has gone wrong w/ the Mavericks? Losers of 10 of their last 12, they are now a season-worst three games below .500 after getting thrashed in Sacramento Sunday afternoon (gave up 133 points!). It would be quite easy to simply pin things on the loss of Chandler Parsons for the year, but consider that w/o him, Dirk Nowitzki (rest), Deron Williams and Devin Harris, the team still hung tough and covered against Golden State on Friday night. Nowitzki and Harris were both back in the lineup yday, but combined for only 25 points. But forget about that, it was a season-worst effort on the defensive end that killed the Mavs Sunday as they allowed the Kings to shoot an unfathomable 62.5 percent from the field. I expect pride to kick in tonight in a game they "must have" in Denver. As for the Nuggets, they too lost yday, 105-90 at the Clippers. The team was off B2B wins, but considering who they had played (Sixers and Lakers), that really shouldn't come as a surprise. What is a little surprising is that this team has been able to string together a 31-43 overall SU record this year. Given the state of the roster, I would have thought 30 wins would be a bit of a stretch at the start of the season. Generally, they've been a competitive bunch, but are only 2-5 ATS their last seven games and I do not believe they should be the favorite here. As a favorite, they are just 7-8 ATS for the year. Consider that in a previous visit from Dallas earlier this month, the Nuggets were four-point underdogs. Granted, they did win that game (by two, in overtime) but there's been an overreaction by the marketplace here. The Dallas defense has to start improving if the team is to make the playoffs. Entering today, they are just one-half game behind idle Houston for eighth place in the West, so you can see the importance winning this one carries. Fortunately for the defense, Denver comes in off a dreadful offensive showing vs. the Clippers as the starting five combined to shoot a woeful 22.4 percent from the field. That starting five did not include Kenneth Faried, who has missed the last six games. Remember that the Nuggets are also w/o Danilo Gallinari. Nowitzki, who had been hot prior to last night, should rekindle some of the "old fire" and lead his team to victory in this one. 8* Dallas |
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03-28-16 | Tennessee Tech +7 v. Old Dominion | Top | 59-75 | Loss | -101 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
8* Tennessee Tech (3:00 ET): As if there weren't enough teams getting postseason invites, we now have the Vegas 16 taking place this week over a three-day span at Mandalay Bay. Actually, it appears as if there "weren't enough teams" as despite being called "The Vegas 16," there's only eight schools competing here. The first two are Tennessee Tech (out of the OVC) and Old Dominion (out of C-USA). Of the two, ODU was closer to the actual NCAA Tournament as they fell to Middle Tennessee (and we know what the Blue Raiders did to Michigan State) by only two points in the C-USA Champ Game. Tennessee Tech, meanwhile, fell victim to the stunning run of 8-seed Austin Peay in their conference tournament. My take is that the number here is simply way too many points to be laying in this spot. Take the points. This matchup will certainly be an interesting contrast of styles. Tennessee Tech is a team led by it offense as they average an impressive 78.6 points per game, which had them just outside the top 40 nationally. But the regular season didn't end well as the Golden Eagles dropped three of five and got a bad draw in the OVC Tourney as they got the fifth seed despite finishing in a three-way tie for the second best record in the conference. (OVC is split into two divisions & division winners are guaranteed top two spots). I have no unearthly idea how to explain what happened against Austin Peay, who scored 92 pts on 54.2% shooting led by a 37-21 game (both career highs) from Chris Horton. One thing that's good, however, is that the Golden Eagles are 6-2 ATS this year following a SU loss. Old Dominion is led by its defense, which gives up just 61.8 PPG. Compared to Tennessee Tech, the Monarchs finished the year in much stronger fashion as they'd won seven in a row before the two-point loss to MTSU (game decided on free throws in closing seconds). But that works against ODU here as the win streak has only served to inflate this line to heights it should not be at. I do not see them being able to keep pace w/ the scoring of Tennessee Tech here as the Golden Eagles should bounce back from their worst three-point shooting game of the year (vs. Austin Peay) where they went just 5 for 29. 8* Tennessee Tech |
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03-27-16 | Cal-Irvine v. Coastal Carolina +4.5 | Top | 66-47 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
10* Coastal Carolina (9:00 ET): The Chanticleers got a bad break with their starting point guard Shivaughn Wiggins getting arrested last night and he will not play here. But I'm still not sure that UC Irvine deserves to be favored. The Anteaters have posted a pair of close road wins in the CIT so far, one coming in overtime. That was 89-86 over North Dakota and then came a one-point win at LA Lafayette Wednesday. They've played one less game than Coastal Carolina in this tournament and while having the home court edge is not necessarily indicative that you're the better team (teams PAY to host in this tourney!), it is an advantage nonetheless. Take the points with the home dog. Coastal Carolina has played all three of their CIT games at home. They beat Mercer (65-57), New Hampshire (71-62) and then Grand Canyon (60-58). As you can tell, these wins have been close as well and the Chanticleers needed a pretty miraculous rally to win the quarterfinal matchup with Grand Canyon (closed game on an 8-0 run). But they were favored in all three games and are 14-3 SU here at home this season w/ an average margin of victory of 15.2 points per game. Yes, missing their starting PG is a terrible blow, but it is one that they can still overcome. There has been an overreaction by both the linesmakers and public for this one. UC Irvine had to deal with the absence of 7'6" Mamadou Ndiaye in the last game and while he's been upgraded to probable here, his leg figures to still give him issues. Though a remarkable 16-7 SU away from home this season, the Anteaters average margin of victory in those games is just 1.5 points per game. It's pretty remarkable that they have won all nine games this year in which they have been a road favorite, but they are 0-2 ATS as a road fave of 3.5 to 6 points. Since Thanksgiving, CCU has lost only two times by more than six points and both of those games took place on the road. 10* Coastal Carolina |
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03-27-16 | Mavs +1.5 v. Kings | Top | 111-133 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
10* Dallas (6:05 ET): Though it's ever so slightly, I'm surprised that the Kings are favored here as my own personal power ratings suggest that this line should be a pick em. That difference may seem somewhat negligible, but considering the desperate state Dallas should be in here, they are a strong value not having to lay points. With Utah winning last night (I was on the Jazz!), the Mavs now find themselves on the "outside looking in" when it comes to the playoffs as they are one-half game back of the two teams tied for seventh. This is due to them dropping nine of their last 11, but as I've outlined in taking them plus the points several times recently, most of those losses have been close, including the one at Golden State Friday where I cashed them as large underdogs. Here, we're looking at an outright win. Sacramento is off a rare win here. The win came Friday, at home, vs. Phoenix. That was a game they were favored to win by 7.5 and prevailed easily 116-94. But not all opponents are as bad as the Suns. Wins have been few and far between for the Kings ever since the All-Star Break and they have not won B2B games since that time. Last time they were at home, favored and off a win, they lost outright to New Orleans 123-108 on March 16th. Defensively, this team has major issues as they are dead last in the league in points allowed, allowing 109 per game. Not since a five-game win streak in mid-January has Sacramento gone B2B games allowing less than 100 points. So after the win over Phoenix two nights ago, I expect their poor defense to revert back to their "usual ways" here. Dallas will be w/o PG Deron WIlliams here, but he didn't play Friday vs. Golden State and they still hung tough. They also didn't have Devin Harris, Dirk Nowitzki and Chandler Parsons against the team with the league's best record and still lost by only eight. While Parsons is out for the year, both Harris and Nowitzki will be back tonight. Nowitzki has played well recently (he simply rested vs. GSW) and so too has Wesley Matthews, who is 17 of 28 from three-point range the L3 games. Sacramento might be 8-1 ATS L9 vs. Dallas (3-0 this year), but that trend changes here is a "must-win" spot for the Mavs. 10* Dallas |
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03-26-16 | Jazz -6.5 v. Wolves | Top | 93-84 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
8* Utah (8:05 ET): While my own personal power ratings say this might be a bit of an overlay, that doesn't take into account that this is just a brutal spot for Minnesota, who won in double overtime last night in Washington. I was fortunate enough to be on the T'wolves in that one as they came from behind to defeat the Wizards 132-129 as nine-point dogs. It was their fifth consecutive cover, but here is where that streak comes to an end as we know this team has really struggled ATS at home this season (13-21) and Utah is going to be in a surly mood considering what happened to them in their most recent game (lost 113-91 in Oklahoma City). Lay the points here in a game the Jazz simply must have. Utah enters the day tied for eighth in the Western Conference thanks to Dallas losing last night at Golden State. While they have spent much of the year on the "outside looking in" when it comes to playoff position, Utah has the fifth best point differential in the West and by that metric should have 39 wins, rather than 35. These two Northwest Division rivals have split a pair of games so far this season, each winning at home, but the key to me is that the Jazz are the far superior defensive outfit as they rank #2 in the league in points allowed (96.6 per game) while the T'wolves are 24th (106.1). After facing the ultra-efficient Thunder, I expect major improvement on the defensive end from Utah tonight, plus this price range has surprisingly been just fine for them as they've won the last five times as road chalk of -6.5 to -9 points, including a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS mark this season. You just have to wonder what Minnesota will have left in the tank here after leaving it all on the court last night? Going from road to home, without rest, has not been a favorable situation for them this year as they are 1-3 SU/ATS while being outscored by 7.0 PPG. Rarely do we find the T'wolves coming off B2B victories, but the only two times it has happened since the end of November, they've lost the next time out by double digits both times. Overall, this team is just 2-11 SU in the second game of a back to back, getting outscored by 8.8 points per game. 8* Utah |
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03-26-16 | Pacers -4.5 v. Nets | Top | 110-120 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
10* Indiana (6:05 ET): Brooklyn is a bad team coming off a rare SU win (over Cleveland!), so now would be the proper time to fade as this number just looks too low to me. The Nets offense has exploded over the last five games (108.0 PPG), but I think that it's critical to remember that they average only 98.0 over the course of the season and tonight's opponent, Indiana, just held two bad teams under 85 points in a pair of easy victories. The Pacers are currently tied for seventh in the Eastern Conference, only two games clear of ninth, so they don't dare "fool around" and drop this one. I'm laying the points. Now the one area of concern here for Indiana is that Paul George (currently listed as a "game-time decision") may not play here as he made an early exit (bruised right leg) in the team's 92-84 home win over undermanned New Orleans Thursday night. Given what we've seen from the Pacers defensively in the last two games, George's potential absence doesn't scare me off as Brooklyn would rate right between New Orleans and Philadelphia, neither of whom was able to shoot better than 42% against Indiana. The Nets are just 27th in terms of offensive efficiency and as I said due for a decline in scoring almost immediately. They are actually worse defensively (28th in efficiency) and it was pretty shocking to see them hold Cleveland to only 95 points after their previous five opponents averaged 112.2 PPG against them. Simply put, with or without George, the Pacers should find ways to score in this one. Following a SU win, Brooklyn is a woeful 3-16 SU their next time out and getting outscored by nearly seven points per game. Twice we've caught them in this role in March and both times (at Chicago, at Minnesota), they lost by double digits. This is a better opponent that they're facing here and I don't think home court advantage is enough to counteract their season-long struggles as the team is still being outscored by almost 5.0 PPG at the Barclays Center this year and has a 13-24 SU record. 10* Indiana |
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03-26-16 | Oklahoma +1.5 v. Oregon | Top | 80-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma (6:05 ET): So, I had Duke rated higher than Oregon and while my big Sweet 16 play may not have panned out, it stands to reason that I would clearly have Oklahoma rated higher than the Ducks and I do. I feel that Thursday's misfire was more about overrating the Blue Devils than any kind of misread on the Ducks, who remember failed to cover in their second round game vs. St. Joe's (trailed by seven late in the second half). Meanwhile, OU had not done much covering of late, that was until a very impressive performance against Texas A&M in the Sweet 16 where they won 77-63 as 2.5-pt chalk. That snapped a seven-game ATS slide and I believe the Sooners continue to "get some back" here en route to their first Final Four appearance since 2002! ' Oregon has won a season-high 11 games in a row and they've covered in seven of the past nine victories. However, what's interesting is that they are the only team in action Saturday that has not been ranked #1 in the human polls at any point this season. Now, I'm not one to ever put a ton of stock into what the pollsters say, it just so happens that the computers tend to have an even less favorable look of the Ducks. They've clearly been "at their best" of late w/ a 19-point average margin of victory the L5 games. But certainly the Pac 12 can be called into question at this point (none of the other teams survived the 1st weekend) and I feel that them being favored here is an overreaction to what they did against an admittedly short-handed Duke team. One thing that Oregon should be scared about here is that Oklahoma's Buddy Hield was not necessarily at his "best" Thursday against A&M. The likely Player of the Year scored only 17 points, but all other Sooners starters were in double figures as well. I think that after all the struggles at the betting window down the stretch, OU currently represents an excellent "buy low" opportunity here. They actually average more points per game than does Oregon and are incredibly prolific from three-point range (42.6%!). The key here could end up being defense and the Sooners rank 21 spots higher in terms of efficiency (14 vs. 35) on that end of the court. Wrong team favored. 10* Oklahoma |
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03-25-16 | Mavs +14 v. Warriors | Top | 120-128 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
8* Dallas (10:35 ET): The Mavericks have treated me kindly in each of their last two games (both covers vs. Portland), so why not look to make it three in a row tonight as they are catching a big number in Golden State? Now these teams just met last Friday and it was the Warriors coming out on top, in Dallas, by a score of 130-112 as nine-point chalk. While the win and cover there improved the NBA Champs' record vs. Dallas to 9-2 - both SU and ATS - the last 11 meetings, it should be noted that it was a three-point game midway through the fourth quarter. Having lost 8 out of their last 10 overall, the Mavs have fallen a game below .500 and they are now dangerously close to missing the playoffs (just one-half game ahead of ninth place Utah). I don't see them getting blown out here. Take the points. Golden State is off yet another big win, so of course the line here is going to be a little bit inflated. They beat the Clippers 114-98 Wednesday night, a high profile TV win, so there may be a bit of "letdown" in store for tonight. Yes, they continue to "chase history" as in the 1996 Bulls single season record of 72 wins. But with seven of their next eight games coming here at home and two games "to spare," I think that the reality of this happening is going to settle in, which leads to complacency. As a favorite of more than 12.5 points this season, the Warriors are just 10-9 ATS. Steph Curry has shown recent signs of being human by going just 7 of 31 from three-point range the last three games. How can Dallas compete here? Well, Dirk Nowitzki has been hot lately, averaging 26.1 PPG his last nine. Remember that the Mavs did deal the Warriors one of their seven losses this season, albeit that game came when Curry was out of the lineup. But still, they competed hard for 3.5 quarters against them last week and taking a more generous spread has enticed me. Including Wednesday's loss in Portland, six of Dallas' last eight losses have been by seven points or less. 8* Dallas |
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03-25-16 | Indiana +5.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 86-101 | Loss | -106 | 83 h 36 m | Show |
10* Indiana (9:55 ET): North Carolina is a hot team right now as they've won seven straight and many now consider them to be the "co-favorite" (along w/ Kansas) to cut down the nets next week. But I'm not sure any team has a better win so far in this tournament than Indiana considering the manner that they downed chic Final Four pick Kentucky in the last round. Before we go crowning the Tar Heels anything just yet, let's remember that despite those final scores, they were somewhat tooth and nail w/ both Florida Gulf Coast and Providence into the second half. I think this is an overlay as Sweet 16 underdogs of more than three points have tended to excel through the years. Take the points. All of the #1 seeds won their first round game by double digits, as was to be expected, but North Carolina was the only one that struggled somewhat. The Heels were up by just one at the half against Florida Gulf Coast and actually outrebounded for the game! Very scary is the fact that they allowed FGCU to shoot 60 percent from the floor in the first half! Against Providence, they again pulled away late for a somewhat misleading final score. That game was tied with just over 15 minutes to go. Indiana is going to be a far "taller order" here as not only do the Hoosiers come in averaging 82.3 points per game (11th nationally, tied w/ UNC), but they are 4-2 straight up and against the spread this season when taking points. Of course, it was a win of the outright variety in the last round for the Hoosiers as they really looked impressive in dispatching of Kentucky by a score of 73-67 (were +3.5). They held UK to its second lowest scoring output of the season and did so by holding them to just 35.4% shooting in the half court. North Carolina is not a great shooting team, at least from three-point range where they're just 30.3 percent for the year outside of Chapel Hill. Indiana actually got by w/ a relatively subpar effort on the offensive end themselves vs. Kentucky (28.6% from 3-pt range), but if you recall also scored 99 points in their opening round contest vs. Chattanooga. This is a team that has lost just two games by more than five points all year. 10* Indiana |
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03-25-16 | Hornets +2 v. Pistons | Top | 105-112 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (7:35 ET): Even with the benefit of home court advantage, I'm not sure that Detroit should be the favorite here as the Hornets have been the best team in the East since February 1st (going 18-5 straight up!) and league-wide only the Spurs and Warriors have been better during that time. Of course, Charlotte just stunned San Antonio (rallied back to win after trailing 30-7) earlier this week, and then showed me something by avoiding what could have been an obvious letdown (although they didn't cover) by winning at Brooklyn the following night. Having just beaten the Pistons by 15 earlier this month, which improved their head to head record to 7-2 SU/ATS L9 aganist them, the road team looks like a great play tonight. Now Detroit comes into this game on a four-game win streak and is an impressive 23-12 SU at home this year (+6.0 PPG) including 5-1 ATS when laying three points or less. But this win streak of theirs has come at the expense of nothing but bad teams (Sacramento, Brooklyn, Milwaukee and Orlando to be precise) and all four games were here at home. They did lose to Atlanta here the last time they hosted a likely playoff adversary. Though their offensive numbers have been way up in recent days, it's important to note that in terms of "true shooting" numbers, the Pistons are third from the bottom in the league (ahead of only the Kobe-led Lakers and Philadelphia). So it is their recent offensive production that is more likely to regress than Charlotte's. Speaking of Charlotte's offense, they have topped 100 pts in 10 of the last 13 games and the three-pointer has been a big weapon for them as they've already set franchise marks for most three-pointers made and attempted in a single season. Their straight up road record doesn't concern me at all as they have a winning ATS record when taking points away from home. They are also one of just five teams in the entire league in rank in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency (Spurs, Warriors, Cavaliers, Clippers). That's good enough for me here. 8* Charlotte |
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03-25-16 | Wolves +7.5 v. Wizards | Top | 132-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (7:05 ET): Due to a recent surge by Washington, this looks like a bit of an overlay to me. Minnesota has been fighting hard down the stretch, covering their last four games, and they are coming off a win (113-104 vs. Sacramento) to boot. The Wizards, meanwhile, just had a four-game win streak snapped w/ a home loss to Atlanta (2nd game of a home & home) and while they're still in playoff contention, this team's mediocre home record and subpar defense would have me concerned if I were to be laying points in this situation (Spoiler alert: I'm not!). Yes, the T'wolves just lost to the Wizards earlier this month, at home, by a score of 104-98 and they were 3.5-pt dogs there. But that was w/ Washington owning a 64-18 edge in bench points, which isn't likely to be repeated here. Take the points. The Wiz also shot 50% overall in the season's first meeting, including 11 of 29 from three-point range. That sounds nice, but those are difficult numbers to maintain and the fact is this team has been woefully inconsistent for much of the year. After beating Minnesota, they would lose their next five games, followed by a five-game win streak. Wednesday vs. Atlanta saw them give up 122 points, raising their season average to 104.2 PPG allowed. They are just 2-7 - both SU and ATS - against the Northwest Division this season, giving up an average of more than 110 PPG. At home, they're barely above .500 straight up (19-18) and that's after winning three of four here. Minnesota may be out of contention, but they have a nice young nucleus w/ Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine. That trio combined for 72 points in the team's win over Sacramento two nights ago. Because they're almost always taking points, the T'wolves have been a much better bet on the road than at home this year, going 21-15 ATS and they're being outscored by less than four points per game with much of that competition being better than tonight's opponent. As a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points, they are 7-4 ATS. Over the last five games, this team is averaging an impressive 109.2 PPG, making the points look very attractive here. 8* Minnesota |
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03-24-16 | Blazers v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 94-96 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): Both teams played last night and in each case I got the result I was looking for. I went against Portland, so I was very happy to see them come up short by one-half point at home vs. Dallas (won 109-103, -6.5). As for the Clippers, well, as one might expect they lost at Golden State. But the final score there (114-98 as 9.5-pt dogs) sets us up beautifully here as the home team is now drastically being undervalued. Los Angeles has now failed to cover seven of their last eight games while losing three in a row - both SU and ATS. But the Blazers are weak on the road, going just 2-7 SU there this month and the two wins came at the expense of the lowly Knicks and Pelicans. Lay the points here. Over the last five games, all of them taking place on the road, the Clips have allowed an average of 110 PPG, an astounding number to say the least. Now, they did play both San Antonio and Golden State during the trip, but losses to undermanned Memphis and New Orleans were downright inexcusable. A return home should be just "what the doctor ordered" for Doc Rivers' club as they are 22-12 SU here for the season and allowing just 99.3 PPG. Again, their opponent has really struggled on the road (just 15-23 SU) and allows 105.8 PPG. Being the second game of a back to back for both seems to favor the Clips as they are 9-6 SU in that situation while Portland is just 5-11 (3-7 on the road). The Blazers defense has also been a liability of late as they've allowed a frightening 116.7 PPG their last 10 contests. Unlike the Clips, who should improve on that end due to being back at home, Portland is afforded no such benefit. LA has not lost four straight games at any point during this season, going 2-0 SU when on a three-game losing streak. They are also 9-5 SU (8-5-1 ATS) when coming off a double digit loss. My own personal power ratings suggest that this line is simply too low and I have the home team bouncing back in this one. 10* LA Clippers |
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03-24-16 | Duke +3 v. Oregon | Top | 68-82 | Loss | -108 | 59 h 41 m | Show |
10* Duke (10:05 ET): The wrong team is favored here. I simply don't know any other way to say it. It's not just that Oregon, clearly, was the weakest #1 seed coming into the draw. But also, compare the ACC's performance in this Tournament to that of the Pac 12 and I feel it tells the story. The ACC has placed a record six teams among the Sweet 16 while the Ducks are the lone remaining Pac 12 representative as five of the other six failed to even get out of the first round! UO does arrive into the Sweet 16 riding a season-best 10-game win streak, but they had a close call w/ St. Joe's in the Rd of 32 (I cashed the dog plus the points) and for a second straight game will fade the Ducks. This time I anticipate an outright win, but take the points anyway. Though both of these teams won by similar margins in the Round of 32, that's a bit misleading. Duke led Yale by as many as 27 points before the Bulldogs stormed back (cutting the lead to as little as three!) and still was able to (barely) cover as six-point chalk in a 71-64 victory. Oregon, meanwhile, trailed St. Joe's by as many as seven points late in the second half before storming back to win the game. While the Blue Devils depth can absolutely be questioned, so too can the Ducks' as both teams are likely to go only seven deep Thursday. Duke has the better scoring duo w/ Grayson Allen and Brandon Ingram both averaging over 20 points per game in the Tournament. No other team left can say they have that (two players averaging 20+ PPG). I think it's very important to remember that the Blue Devils sport the fourth most efficient offense in the country. They are also the defending National Champs & 7-2 ATS their last nine NCAA Tournament games. Duke's two weaknesses are defense and rebounding, but I'm not sure Oregon will take advantage of those in the manner expected. Sure, the Ducks can score (78.9 PPG), but they had only six assists and 35 rebounds vs. St. Joe's. Offensive rebounds can be had against them. They were lucky that the Hawks struggled in transition in that last game. Duke may have only had to beat a 13 and 12 seed to get here, but remember this is a team that has lost by more than five points only three times since November. I give Coach K the edge over Dana Altman w/ all this time to prepare, which is important, as is the fact Oregon is just 241st in 3-pt FG% allowed and Duke shoots 38.7% from behind the arc. 10* Duke |
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03-24-16 | Maryland +6.5 v. Kansas | Top | 63-79 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 46 m | Show |
8* Maryland (9:40 ET): Kansas comes into the Sweet 16 w/ an aura of invincibility, but this is a season where such an aura is by no means reality and I think this shapes up as an overlay against Maryland team that treated me well in their last game. My biggest play from the first weekend was on the Terrapins against Hawaii and despite going a woeful 1 for 18 from three-point range, they won that game with "room to spare," 73-60 as 6.5-point chalk. I can't fathom they'll be so bad again from behind the arc (36.7% for the year) and that means trouble for the Jayhawks, who are "due" to drop one at the betting window after covering 13 of their last 16. Sweet 16/Elite 8 favorites of more than three points are just 37-54 ATS (40.7%) ATS. Take the points. In my analysis for the Maryland-Hawaii game, I made mention that the Terps appear to be vastly underrated right now. It was just last month that they were 22-3 straight up and ranked #2 in the human polls! Four of the five losses they've taken since then have been by five points or less! I think that it's pretty interesting to find that the majority of wagers on this game have (predictably) been on the favorite, yet the line has not moved an inch (as of Wednesday night). While the majority of tickets have been written on Kansas, the overall handle is relatively split, indicating that there's some potential sharp money on the dog here. Again, Maryland's three-point shooting can only improve even going against a KU defense that has been pretty stingy to this point. All five Terrapins starters average in double figures, led by Melo Trimble, who did an outstanding job of getting to the foul line in the Hawaii game (23 attempts). I also believe the Terps happen to have the size to combat the Jayhawks' excellent front court. While their three-point shooting has been poor to this point, Maryland shot a ridiculous 70 percent from 2-point range vs. Hawaii. That will almost certainly go down here, but will be offset from the likely improvement from three-point range. Defensively, they held Hawaii to just 0.86 points per possession, which is impressive. I just think that after getting through the first two rounds virtually unscathed, Kansas is due for a close game. 8* Maryland |
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03-23-16 | Mavs +6.5 v. Blazers | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
8* Dallas (10:05 ET): This is the second game of a home and home between these two and considering that I thought the Mavs were a strong value as a pick 'em at home Sunday (won 132-120 in overtime), I'm really liking the value here in Portland where they are taking a pretty big number. Again, I have these teams rated fairly evenly in my latest power rankings (Dallas actually slightly better), so anything over three points here is really a premium. Yes, the Mavs are now without Chandler Parsons the rest of the way, but they really controlled Sunday's game, leading much of the way and really should have wrapped things up in regulation. Take the points. Now, the Mavs did fall behind 36-25 at the end of the first quarter and got season-best performances from both Dirk Nowitzki and Deron Williams Sunday. It will obviously be hard for the two players to repeat those efforts, but at the same time I don't see the team falling into such an early hole again. Portland came out on fire (6 of 12 from three-point range in the first quarter), but cooled off significantly after that. Again, this second half (of the season) renaissance we've seen from the Blazers is quite stunning considering where they were projected to finish at the start of the season (lost four starters from LY's playoff team, including All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge). They've recently "given a little back" in that they are just 3-7 SU L10 games w/ all three wins coming against non-playoff teams, two of them close. Dallas seems to be in a good price range here as they are 7-3 ATS this season as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. The Parsons injury has clearly had an effect on the way they are viewed by the linesmakers and the public. However, note that this team has scored a combined 225 points in regulation its last two games, thus taking this many points sounds generous. Prior to beating the Blazers on Sunday, the Mavs had dropped seven of eight, but four of those losses were by six points or less and three of them were by a combined six points. Only one-half game separates these two in the standings and with only 1.5 games being the difference between sixth and ninth place in the West, the Mavs are not going to roll over. 8* Dallas |
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03-23-16 | Florida +2 v. George Washington | Top | 77-82 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
10* Florida (7:00 ET): In yday's analysis on St. Mary's-Valpo, I made mention that when filling out my own NIT bracket (yes, I did one!) that I had the Crusaders making it all the way to the Championship Game. Well, on the other side, I have Florida. Tonight, the Gators are underdogs to a George Washington team that treated me quite well on Monday, beating Monmouth outright. While a Florida-Monmouth matchup would have provided us with incredible value (on the Gators), drawing GW here still has the contingent from Gainesville priced inaccurately as I have them rated as the better team even after factoring in the home court advantage for the Colonials. Take the points. Florida comes into tonight off wins over North Florida and Ohio State, both on the road. What's unique here is that despite being the #2 seed in the region, all of the Gators' games thus far have been away from home. This is because their own arena is currently being renovated. While this would seem to put them at a disadvantage, all it's done is create a ton of value on a team that I have rated the best in the entire NIT field. It was somewhat of an 'ugly' February at the betting window (1-6 ATS), but a 4-0-1 ATS mark the L5 games has changed that and it was interesting (and deserved) that they were a favorite in Columbus Sunday, a game where they never trailed. With eight losses by six points or less on its resume, Florida is clearly better than its record shows. George Washington also never trailed in its last game and that was great for me as I had them against Monmouth and didn't even need the points! But if you recall from my analysis, that was more of a play AGAINST Monmouth, who I've felt has been overrated for quite some time. This is now a big step up for the Colonials, who are just 1-8 ATS their last nine games vs. the SEC, even though they did beat Tennessee earlier this year (didn't cover). Though Monmouth was the top seed in this region, they weren't even close to being the best team and in fact my own power ratings indicate that Florida is coming off the tougher opponent here! It's highly unlikely that GW will hold such a drastic edge in FG% here like they did vs. Monmouth (51.9% to 34.2%). 10* Florida |
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03-22-16 | St. Mary's v. Valparaiso -4.5 | Top | 44-60 | Win | 100 | 24 h 8 m | Show |
10* Valparaiso (7:00 ET): Not many people fill out an NIT bracket, but I did, and in the interest of full disclosure, Valpo was in my Championship Game. The Crusaders, the top-seeded team in their region, I thought had a more legit gripe about being "snubbed" by the NCAA selection committee than say, Monmouth. So far, they have rolled to a pair of pretty easy wins, beating both Texas Southern and Florida State by double digits on their home floor. Up next is a visit from St. Mary's and while a stiffer test it might be, I still have the Crusaders advancing w/ relative ease. This is not a great spot at all for the visiting Gaels, who are making the trip out East with three less days to prepare than Valpo had. Lay the points. After escaping New Mexico State, 58-56 in Rd 1, St. Mary's prevailed Sunday over Georgia by a score of 77-65, covering as seven-point chalk. They are now 18-12 ATS for the season, but that's less impressive when you consider they started a perfect 12-0. Also, this will be only the second non-conference road game of the entire season (seriously!) for the Gaels. The first and only other came all the way back on December 12th when they lost at Cal, 63-59. Incredibly, Tuesday night marks just the second time all season that they have left the Pacific Time Zone! The furthest "East" they have traveled previously would be to the Mountain Time Zone for a date w/ Brigham Young that they ended up losing by 11 points. As alluded to above, Valpo has a massive edge as far as time to prepare goes. They last played Thursday while St. Mary's second round game took place on Sunday. That's pretty significant, given this being the Gaels first long road trip of the season. Of the Crusaders' six losses this season, only two were by more than six points and one of them was in overtime, unfortunately in the Horizon League Tournament. They really should have been in the NCAA Tournament ahead of Tulsa. Here at home, they are 16-1 SU this season with an average margin of victory of +18.7 points per game. Prior to the second round win over Florida State (led by 10 at the half, never trailed), the Crusaders had yet to be favored by seven or fewer points at home all season. This is a really nice value with the short number. 10* Valparaiso |
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03-21-16 | Grizzlies -2 v. Suns | Top | 103-97 | Win | 100 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
10* Memphis (10:05 ET): The Grizzlies are an awfully difficult team to handicap right now due to all the injuries. Pointspreads for their games have generally been overinflated to a high degree, so I guess it shouldn't be all that surprising to find them at 8-4 ATS their last 12 games. Thursday saw them actually getting a very generous 11 points at Milwaukee (lost by only 10!), but the real shocker came two nights later at home against the Clippers, whom they defeated outright (as nine-point pups) by a score of 113-102. While a result such as that one might normally have me "steering clear" the next time out, tonight's opponent is Phoenix, themselves off a win (rare!) and there is a major case of revenge in the air in the desert. Lay the short number. Over the last month, these teams met twice. Incredibly, the Suns won both games. To put that achievement in its proper perspective, note that Phoenix has just three other victories during the time frame and before that had won just twice from December 20th until February 25th! This time of year, it is wise to go against a team as bad as this when they're off a SU win. Logic dictates that they'll simply be unable to drum up the kind of effort necessary to win two times in a row. Now the Suns did beat the Grizzlies, in Memphis no less, when off a 102-84 win at Orlando last month. But don't think that will be lost on the Memphis coaching staff or players. Overall, Phoenix is just 5-13 straight up and against the spread when off a SU win this season. Memphis might be banged up and not as good as its overall record shows, but they are still fighting for a playoff spot. Right now, they're in pretty good position to finish fifth in the West, which would likely mean playing the Clippers in the first round. The odds would certainly be against them winning that series (though they did just beat the Clips), but at the same time they'd be higher than a matchup w/ the Thunder, Spurs or Warriors. The bottom line here essentially is that I simply cannot see the Grizz losing for a third straight time to the Suns. That can be a dangerous mode of thinking, mind you, but Zach Randolph being back (huge game vs. LA) is a big deal for Memphis and he should play a significant role tonight. 10* Memphis |
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03-21-16 | George Washington +3.5 v. Monmouth | Top | 87-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
8* George Washington (7:00 ET): In case you haven't picked up on it in previous analysis, I feel there's a definite link between Monmouth's bench shenanigans and them being overvalued at times by the oddsmakers. For a team out of the MAAC, they sure do seem to have a high profile. Now going against them in their first round NIT game proved to not be profitable as they beat Bucknell 90-80. That improved their YTD against the spread record to 21-12, which somewhat contradicts my earlier statement re: them being overvalued. But overvalued is what I feel the Hawks are again Monday as they step up in class with a visit from George Washington, a team that I would have favored against them on a neutral court. Even with the home court edge, I do not believe Monmouth should be favored by this many. Take the points. Now Monmouth's first round NIT game was a bit closer than the final score indicated as it was tied 52-52 in the second half before the Hawks hot second-half shooting eventually overwhelmed their opponent. For the game, they finished at 11 of 27 from behind the arc and scored 54 points in the second half alone. I really thought that Bucknell plus the points was the way to go in that contest as a high ticket count on Monmouth, plus the added disappointment of a NCAA 'snub', had me thinking they were ripe to be upset. Remember that this team was a dog in the MAAC Tourney Final against Iona. Alas, I was incorrect, but a second shot w/ a better opponent taking points still has me confident. In each of its last four games, George Washington has failed to meet the oddsmakers expectations. In Wednesday's 82-80 win over Hofstra, the Colonials needed a last-second shot just to escape, though it should be pointed out that they led by 11 at halftime. Tied for the second-most wins in a single season in program history, GW was ousted by a St. Joe's team that just gave Oregon a great game in the NCAA Tourney and generally played much stiffer competition in the Atlantic 10 than Monmouth did in the MAAC. Remember that Monmouth has dropped three games this year - outright - to teams outside of Vegas' top 200. 8* George Washington |
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03-20-16 | St. Joe's +6.5 v. Oregon | Top | 64-69 | Win | 100 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
8* St. Joseph's (9:40 ET): In the interest of full disclosure, I was going to take Cincinnati to upset Oregon in this spot. I had the Bearcats Friday night against St. Joe's and were it not for a waved off, game-tying dunk, I could have had the opportunity to take them here against the Ducks. But alas, it is St. Joe's in this spot. I was critical of the Hawks in my analysis for their first round matchup w/ UC, but the bottom line is the overwhelming support Oregon is getting here has me willing to take an inflated number. After all, St. Joe's is a money-making 9-2 ATS as an underdog this season after winning outright each of their last three games. Oregon is clearly overvalued after beating up on a patsy in their first round game. Take the points here. The one clear benefit to being a #1 seed is that you in essence get a first round bye. No 1-seed has ever lost in the Round of 64 and that trend figures to continue as their 16th seeded counterparts - by definition - are the worst teams in the field and many of them are teams that didn't even win their conference in the regular season. Oregon drew such a first round opponent, that being Holy Cross, perhaps one of the most unlikely teams in the field as the Crusaders were actually the 8-seed in the Patriot League and pulled four straight upsets just to get to Friday (three in conference tourney, then one over Southern on Wednesday). So, what I'm saying is that little can be derived from the Ducks' 91-52 win their last time out. Both of these teams flew Over the number in their respective first round games. St. Joe's scored 78 points on only 62 possessions against a hard-nosed Cincy team after topping 80 in all three Atlantic 10 Tourney Games. Defensively, Oregon will present many problems for them. But this number is clearly inflated as my own power rankings suggest the top seed should be just a slight favorite here. While being a 1-seed worked out well for them Friday, here it works against them as they are a 1-seed in "name only" as the vast majority of ranking systems have them outside the top 20. I think the underdog matches up well here and will keep this game close throughout. 8* St. Joseph's |
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03-20-16 | Hawaii v. Maryland -7 | Top | 60-73 | Win | 100 | 18 h 1 m | Show |
10* Maryland (7:10 ET): As with any team that pulls a major upset in this event, I "tip my cap," but when it comes to Hawaii there was an incredible confluence of events that took place, setting up their 77-66 upset (were +6) of Cal on Friday. First off, the opponent was w/o their leading scorer PG Tyrone Wallace. Secondly, the Bears had to dismiss an assistant coach during the weak amidst scandal. Third, on the morning of the game, another Cal starter (Jabari Bird) experienced back spasms and wound up not playing either. So all the elements an underdog would like (and then some!) were definitely present for the Rainbow Warriors, who additionally shot 51.9% from the field (Cal was only 41.1 percent, including 3 of 19 from 3-pt range). Up next for Hawaii is Maryland and this will be a far tougher task. I'm laying the points. Maryland's 79-74 opening round win over South Dakota State ended up being a lot closer than it should have as the Terps led by as many as 18 late in the second half before sloppy play allowed the Jackrabbits in the "back door." It was a "tale of two halves" as in the first they held SDSU to only 22 points on 26.5% shooting, but in the second they gave up an astounding 52 points. I anticipate a more complete game this time around. Remember that Mark Turgeon's team was once (as in "last month") 22-3 straight up and ranked as high as #2 in the human polls. They clearly came into this Tournament underseeded and with an upset taking place in their bracket, they now have a pretty clear path to the Sweet 16 from where I sit. All five Maryland starters average double figures in points per game and simply put this is a much taller order for underdog Hawaii than undermanned Cal was. The Warriors have performed exceptionally well on the mainland this season (11-2 straight up!), but you have to wonder if they are feeling a bit road weary considering they've been "off the Island" since March 1st. Looking at the line here and comparing to what we saw in both teams' first round matchups, it becomes clear that there's some value here on the Terps. Furthermore, no favorite seems to be getting LESS respect from bettors currently and that's a good sign as when too many people feel an "upset" is going to take place (like Wich St yday - yes, I know, technically a favorite), it often does not. 10* Maryland |
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03-20-16 | Middle Tennessee +6.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 50-75 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
8* Syracuse (6:10 ET): Middle Tennessee is coming off one of the great upsets in Tournament history as they became just the eighth 15-seed to win a game in this event. Of the octet, it can be argued that the Blue Raiders slayed the biggest giant, that being a Michigan State team that many (myself included) would make it to the Final Four and possibly win a National Championship. Just to put over how improbable Friday's result was, MTSU scored 90 points (their 2nd most in a game all season) against the best defensive team they have faced and they did so at a stunning rate (1.32 pts per possession!) due to shooting a preposterous 57.9 percent (11 for 19) from three-point range. Ladies & gentlemen, this is an offense that ranked seventh in efficiency - in Conference USA - during the regular season! They fall hard in Round 2. Lay the points here. Not only will the Blue Raiders have to contend with plain old regression here, but they also have to deal w/ Jim Boeheim's trademark zone defense, which can make that regression be even more pronounced. Syracuse just held its first round opponent - Dayton - to only 6 of 22 shooting from behind the arc and that's after holding ACC opponents to only 28.9% during the regular season. They will force Middle Tennessee into taking plenty of long-range shots here and after Friday's remarkable performance, it is highly unlikely that the Blue Raiders will make many of them. Something else to keep an eye on is that MTSU only turned the ball over 10 times vs. Michigan State while committing just 13 fouls. I just can't see a repeat in either department here. After dropping three straight, all by five points or less, the Orange looked simply fantastic in squeezing out a 70-51 win over Dayton on Friday. The ACC is looking very strong in this tournament w/ a 10-1 SU record & could put as many as six teams into the Sweet 16! That speaks to the level of competition that Syracuse has faced throughout the year and simply put - on paper - this will be the weakest foe on the schedule (w/ the exception of BC) since their conference slate began. Remember that only one 15 seed - Florida Gulf Coast - has ever made it to the Sweet 16. 8* Syracuse |
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03-20-16 | Blazers v. Mavs +1 | Top | 120-132 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
10* Dallas (4:05 ET): This is almost "do or die" for the Mavericks, who have now dropped seven of eight to fall into eighth place in the Western Conference and they're just one game clear of ninth place Utah. They got a big break w/ the Jazz losing last night in Chicago, but Utah has a very winnable game tonight in Milwaukee. Therefore, at home, I feel that Dallas *HAS* to come through. Now that doesn't mean they necessarily *WILL*, mind you, but I feel the probability is high plus the value is there w/ a visit from Portland. Oddsmakers obviously take note of losing streaks, but this line is simply too low as my own power rankings have these teams rated evenly, meaning the home team should be about a three-point favorite! Portland has been trending in the opposite direction of Dallas for much of the second half, but not lately. I took them on Friday when they held on for a 117-112 win in New Orleans (who lost Anthony Davis to injury), but before that the team had actually dropped six of eight. The Blazers did enjoy an outstanding February, but they key to that run was they played a lot of home games, at one point six in a row. By comparison, March has had them on the road a lot more. There's a real strong home vs. road dichotomy going on here w/ Portland 21-12 SU at home (+5.4 PPG) but only 15-22 SU on the road (-3.6 PPG). Their ATS record is positive in both situation, but that clearly reflects that they're usually taking points when away from home, something that is not the case today. Part of the reason I called for Portland to put an end to a two-game losing streak Friday night was a drop in class. They were going from B2B road games vs. the Thunder and Spurs to playing at the lowly Pelicans. Here, Dallas just played Cleveland and Golden State. While Portland for them may not be as steep a drop in class as the Pelicans were for the Blazers, the theory remains the same nevertheless. The Mavs actually were down only three in the fourth quarter Friday night vs. Golden State, but simply could not keep pace (gave up 130 points). But at least they are 10-5 ATS when off a double digit loss this season. Also, Portland is 7-31 SU its last 38 trips to Dallas. 10* Dallas |
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03-20-16 | Iowa +7 v. Villanova | Top | 68-87 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
10* Iowa (12:10 ET): The seventh-seeded Hawkeyes really let me down on Friday, blowing an early lead and needing OT just to pull off a SU win over Temple (won on putback at the buzzer). I think that as far as their critics are concerned, the blown lead only further "stokes the fire" as they did falter badly down the stretch, losing six of eight while going a money-burning 1-7 ATS. But as someone who does not qualify as an Iowa critic, I really like them plus the points here (rare that they are a dog!) against a Villanova team that drew a weak first round opponent (UNC Asheville) and will likely be tight due to their own issue, which is that they never seem to make it to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Take the points. Over the last eight games, Iowa has been a dog only once. I took them and they didn't just cover for me (were just +1.5), but won outright at Michigan. I realize that lately they've lost straight up more than not, but note their biggest margin of defeat during this stretch was just eight points. Four times they've lost by four points or less. I'll rehash what I said in my analysis for the Temple game: this team was once ranked #3 in the entire country. They come into the Tourney drastically undervalued. Note that they got away w/ shooting only 34.8% from the field against Temple. But they also turned the ball over just three times in an overtime game, highlighting a season-long strength (taking care of the basketball) that I had brought up in my previous analysis as well. I truly believe that this team is due to rediscover its hot shooting from the start of the season (and start of the Temple game, for that matter!). Iowa came out hot from behind the arc Thursday, making six of its first nine three-pointers. They are at 37.7% for the year in that department. If Villanova has a weakness defensively, it's that they allow a lot of three-point shots (37.3% of all opponents' attempts are from behind the arc). Also, the Wildcats can be had on the glass, which is great news for an Iowa team that typically is strong when it comes to offensive rebounding. There were a ton of upsets on Friday (duh!) and many top seeds that did survive, struggled. Nova didn't fall into either category obviously, but off the 30-point win they look overvalued to me in this spot as it is unlikely they will duplicate their 57.9% shooting from the last game. Again, the program's history of faltering in this round is well-known and will be discussed ad nauseam leading up to tip-off. I can see that having an adverse effect on the players, none of whom have ever made it to the second weekend. The Hawkeyes (77.9 PPG) will score enough to stay close throughout and possibly threaten to take the game outright. 10* Iowa |
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03-19-16 | Gonzaga v. Utah | Top | 82-59 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
10* Gonzaga (8:40 ET): There is no running from the Pac 12's awful record so far in this year's NCAA Tournament (2-5 in first round), so I am not surprised at all to see the "Runnin' Utes" in the pick 'em range against 11-seed Gonzaga. Of the teams seeded three or higher, Utah was w/o question the weakest and yes I'm taking into account teams that have already lost. Meanwhile, Gonzaga deserved far better than an 11-seed, which was a byproduct of them being in the rare position of having to win the WCC Tournament just to get into the Big Dance. They looked far more impressive to me in dispatching of a Seton Hall team that had just won the Big East Tournament than Utah did in its first round win over Fresno State. Therefore, I'm backing the 'Zags here. Maybe I'm a bit biased because I took Gonzaga in Round One (where they were actually favored despite being the lower seed). But there can be no denying how good Mark Few's team looked in the 68-52 win and cover. Again, that Seton Hall team had just beaten Xavier and Villanova in B2B days last weekend. They held Pirates' leading scorer Isaiah Whitehead to 4 for 24 shooting overall (0 for 10 from three-point range) and while Seton Hall appeared to be ill-prepared to play at elevation and Denver was a huge edge for them (won't be here), I still would like to point out that I have the 'Zags rated as the better team here. They won have won six straight, four of those coming by double digits. Much will be made about the matchup of big men here - Utah's Jakob Poeltl and Gonzaga's Domantas Sabonis - but don't discount the impact of Gonzaga's Kyle Wiltjer, who is his team's leading scorer at 20.5 points per game. Wiltjer comes off a subpar effort vs. Seton Hall; he was 5 of 14 from the field for only 13 pts, so I look for a bounce back game here. The majority of Utah's recent wins were close while their one loss in the last 10 games came by 31. They drew a very weak 1st round opponent in Fresno State, an automatic qualifier that was not its conference's regular season champ. Yes, you have to consider the respective conferences (Pac 12 vs. WAC), but Gonzaga has the better YTD per game point differential and right now the Pac 12 isn't looking so hot. 10* Gonzaga |
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03-19-16 | Warriors v. Spurs -3 | Top | 79-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
10* San Antonio (8:35 ET): Well, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. That's the tact I'm taking here w/ the Warriors, who "got me" by pulling away late in Dallas last night for a 130-112 win and cover (were -9). I would like to point out it was a three-point game in the fourth quarter. But Steph Curry and Klay Thompson combined for 70 points w/ the latter going a ridiculous 10 of 15 from three-point range. It is now looking very likely that the Warriors will break the '96 Bulls single-season record of 72 wins. But if there's one game you'd "bank" on them losing, it would be this one, against the fellow historically-dominant Spurs, who by the way have not dropped a single home game all year. This being the second of a back to back does Golden State no favors here. Lay the points. Not only is San Antonio rested, but they have revenge and certainly the coaching staff and players remember what happened the first time they played Golden State. It was a 30-point loss, easily their worst setback of the season. Of course, setbacks have been few and far between for the Spurs as they only have 10 of them, meaning they could still tie the '96 Bulls as well (something that never gets ANY press). This team is 20-3 SU since losing to the Warriors and while Golden State has gotten all the accolades this year, I still have San Antonio rated higher as they do own a better YTD point differential (+12.3 to +11.5) due to what is the league's best defense - by a wide margin - allowing just 92.5 points per game. Oh, by the way, the Spurs have won 43 straight at home and are outscoring foes by 15.3 PPG here this season! Much will be made of the fact that the Warriors are a perfect 2 for 2 - straight up and against the spread - as underdogs this season. But one of those games was w/o Curry against overrated Houston. Of course, the other was the "MLK Day Massacre" in Cleveland (I took them there and called for the outright win), but this is clearly the one situation where they do deserve to be in the underdog role. If I were a Warriors' fan, I'd be worried that the team "used up" too much of its hot shooting last night when they went 22 for 38 from three-point range, tying the franchise mark for most made three-pointers in a game. The Spurs defense and home court advantage carry them to victory here. 10* San Antonio |
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03-19-16 | Wichita State v. Miami (Fla) +2 | Top | 57-65 | Win | 100 | 4 h 53 m | Show |
8* Miami FL (12:10 ET): I respect Wichita State quite a bit, but I feel this line is a classic case of "putting the apple cart before the horse" as Miami still deserves to be the favorite in this second round matchup. Sure, the Shockers looked quite impressive in dismantling their first round opponent, Arizona, who looked woefully unprepared for the task at hand. Plus, Miami failed to cover its first round matchup vs. 14-seed Buffalo. But that combination has served to give us some tremendous value on a Hurricanes team that boasts one of the most efficient offenses in all of College Basketball. This is a tough matchup for WSU, who may have rolled through the Missouri Valley, but this is a big step up in class. Take the points. It's certainly odd to see an 11-seed favored over a 3-seed, isn't it? If Wichita State were to win, this would be labeled an upset, but the linesmakers clearly disagree with such an assertion. Again, I absolutely respect what the Shockers bring to the table; it's just that I don't give them a better than 50 percent chance of winning this game, which means fading them is the way to go. Lost in their tremendous defensive effort on Friday is that they shot the ball at only a 40% clip themselves. They were even worse in the "First Four" game vs. Vanderbilt (37.5%) and even worse than that in the MVC Tourney vs. Northern Iowa (31.7%). Also, remember that this is the Shockers' third game in five days, a tough ask, and it's an early game to boot. Though Arizona came in averaging 81.5 points per game, Miami offers a tougher matchup thanks to boasting the nation's 12th most efficient offense (Arizona was 20th). The 'Canes have an experienced backcourt, which figures to turn the ball over far less than Arizona did on Thursday. PG Angel Rodriguez figures to be the difference maker in this one and don't discount his or the entire team's ability to get to the free throw line (went 26 of 34 vs. Buffalo). If Wichita State has one Achilles' heel, it is that they foul too much. The Canes are 28-12 ATS when off three or more consecutive ATS losses. 8* Miami FL |
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03-18-16 | Cincinnati -1.5 v. St Joseph's | Top | 76-78 | Loss | -106 | 49 h 13 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (9:55 ET): This is yet another favorite not getting much love in terms of % of total wagers on the game and I totally disagree with the majority. What is interesting, however, is that despite the majority of tickets being written on St. Joe's here, the line has moved in the opposite direction. That's a signal to me that the so-called "smart money" is w/ me on Cincinnati here and for good reason. The Bearcats are a potentially dangerous team in this Tournament for anyone that might face them. Simply put, you would expect a favorite to be attracting "more love" than this and if they aren't, then there's value. I realize what St. Joe's did as an underdog this year, not to mention on the road and in the A-10 Tournament. But many times, we see an unlikely run through the Conference Tourney work against a team (Seton Hall last night!) and that's what I anticipate happening in this one. St. Joe's pulled B2B upsets over Dayton (overrated) and VCU en route to winning the Atlantic 10 Tournament. I wouldn't put a ton of stock into winning that final game as neither team really had anything to play for as both knew they were safely in the field of 68 by that point. In all three A-10 Tourney games, the Hawks scored 82 points or more, but I'd look for that run to come to a screeching halt here against a Cincinnati defense that ranks in the Top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency. The Bearcats allow just 93.3 points per 100 possessions and have held 11 consecutive opponents below 45% shooting overall. St. Joe's has met four teams in the top 50 in defensive efficiency this season and never shot better than 45% from the floor (29.7% from three-point range). Of course, the last time we saw Cincinnati they came out on the losing end of that 4OT thriller vs. UConn. Maybe that's why the public seems to have soured on them here. But, even in defeat, it was an admirable showing nonetheless and this is a team that has not lost B2B games in 2016. While St. Joe's could clearly be labeled as an "overachiever" this season (went 22-11 ATS), Cincy not only suffered that 4OT loss their last time out, but also five defeats by two points or less during the course of the campaign! Despite their tenacious defense, they don't foul much (just 15.5x per game) and w/ St. Joe's struggling to force turnovers that means few "extra possessions" for the Hawks. Of the four 8-9 matchups, I view this one as the biggest mismatch. 8* Cincinnati |
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03-18-16 | Michigan +3 v. Notre Dame | Top | 63-70 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 55 m | Show |
8* Michigan (9:40 ET): Props to Michigan for coming through on Wednesday against Tulsa. I was on the other side (Tulsa) and while it was a one-point deficit for the Wolverines going into the final minute, they not only pulled off the SU win, but the cover (by one-half point) as well. Now, given that I just went against the Maize & Blue, you might be surprised to find that I'm on them just two days later. But consider that a) they're now getting points and b) this is a much better matchup for them vs. Notre Dame. "First four" winners have a "tradition" getting to at least the Round of 32 (happened every year) and looking at the current Tournament landscape, I'd say Michigan has the best chance of keeping that trend alive. Take the points here as HC John Beilein is now 14-4 ATS all-time in the Big Dance. Keep in mind that Michigan was able to beat Tulsa despite shooting only 40.7% from the field, including 6 of 25 from three-point range. This is a team that led the Big 10 w/ 9.3 made three-pointers per game. What makes this a great matchup for the Wolverines is that Notre Dame is just atrocious defensively, ranking 172nd in efficiency. Only six Tournament teams are worse and that group can be collectively labeled "the 16 seeds." So, look for Michigan to have a bounce back game offensively here in Brooklyn. Really, the Wolverines could not have asked for a better draw here as their two weaknesses (defense, rebounding) are things that Notre Dame is unlikely, or incapable, to take advantage of. While Michigan's last three wins have come by a combined ten points, that's a lot better than some of the Fighting Irish's recent results. A 78-47 loss to North Carolina in the ACC Tournament marked the third time in the last six games that the Irish fell by at least 18 points. Keep in mind that they also trailed Duke by as many as 16 in their first ACC Tourney game, only to rally back and beat a depleted Blue Devils squad in overtime. While Michigan HC Beilein has been outstanding in past tournaments, Notre Dame has really struggled in the Big Dance under Mike Brey, including an atrocious 1-6 ATS in the Round of 64 since '06. The fact that the Fighting Irish are 321st in 3-pt FG% defense does not bode well for them here - at all. 8* Michigan |
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03-18-16 | Northern Iowa v. Texas -4 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -111 | 49 h 58 m | Show |
8* Texas (9:50 ET): Shaka Smart's Longhorns don't seem to be getting a lot of love here and I'm not sure I understand why. Of the four six seeds in this field, they certainly seem like the "safest" bet to me, even if the spread disagrees. Well, actually, they opened and remain the largest favorite of all the 6 vs. 11 matchups! That's certainly justified to me. Northern Iowa would not be here if not for a run through the Missouri Valley Tournament. Granted, that included a win over top seeded Wichita State, but let's not forget this Panthers team was once 2-6 SU in MWC play and that league was way down this year. Texas hails from the much tougher Big 12 (best conference in America) and has wins over Iowa State, at Baylor and West Virginia (two), not to mention North Carolina during the non-conference slate. Lay the points. Shaka Smart was of course brought to Austin because of what he did at VCU. There, his Rams went 9-3 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, most of that damage done during that incredible Final Four run. Smart clearly has more talent to work with here. A quick exit ("one and done") in their conference tournament should theoretically allow for Cameron Ridley's foot to heal. Sticking with the inside, Texas has one of the best shot blockers in the country in Prince Ibeh. Guard Isaiah Taylor is the team's top scorer (14.8 PPG) and a big reason why they don't turn the ball over much. The 'Horns aren't afraid to play at a slow pace and of course will press as is Smart's trademark. Give credit to Northern Iowa for making their run, but there have been plenty of close decisions go their way down the stretch. Their last four wins have all come by six points or less (by 15 pts total!), two of them by just two points. Please give your condolences to Evansville, the team UNI beat in the MWC Tourney Final, as the Panthers beat them three times by three points or less. The point that I am trying to make here is that Northern Iowa should feel pretty fortunate to be here at all. In three of their last four wins, they've gotten away with scoring 57 points or less. While that speaks to their defense, they simply won't win that kind of game against a superior foe. 8* Texas |
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03-18-16 | Warriors v. Mavs +8.5 | Top | 130-112 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:35 ET): For much of the year, Golden State has clearly been undervalued, crazy as that may sound. After all, how else can a team be 37-27-3 ATS (57.3%) at the pay window? The truth is that it's very hard for oddsmakers to handicap a historically dominant team, which is why we're seeing the great ATS marks from both the Warriors and the Spurs. But, here, we have a rare spot where GSW is not being undervalued. In fact, it's a really tough spot for them to be laying points on the road against a desperate Dallas team w/ a major game (at San Antonio) on deck for tomorrow night. Secondly, this is a rare instance where my own personal power ratings do NOT suggest the Warriors are undervalued! Take the points. The Mavs already have beaten the Warriors once this year, albeit w/o Steph Curry. That win of course took place here in Dallas as Golden State hasn't lost at home this season. The Warriors' average margin of victory on the road dips to just +7.6 points per game as they tend to give up a LOT of points (107.9 per game). Dallas, who has since lost a rematch 127-107 in Oakland, comes into tonight's game in dire need of a victory as they have dropped six of their last seven. But many of those losses were close (five by seven pts or less, three by a total of six points) and they did cover at Cleveland two nights ago, losing by just one. Entering the day, the Mavs find themselves in a tie for seventh in the West, just one game ahead of the hard-charging Jazz (who won last night by 34). The upcoming schedule is by no means easy (home & home w/ Portland, at Golden State), so this is a team that needs to pull off an upset. Dallas pulled an upset for me Monday night when they went into Charlotte and won 107-96. Still, the offense has been in a funk the last five games, averaging just 99.2 PPG when they are averaging 104.6 for the year here at home. Of course, their last two games were on the road. We should start to see an increase in offensive production tonight. As for Golden State, after a long stretch of home games against (mostly) non-playoff teams, this will be the first time they have been tested in awhile. I really think that the "look ahead" factor (to San Antonio) plays a role here as well. They've done it before, but laying this many points on the road is too tough an ask given the situation on both sides here. 10* Dallas |
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03-18-16 | Blazers +1.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
8* Portland (8:05 ET): All of a sudden, the Blazers have begun to cool off. They've lost six of their last eight w/ every defeat coming out on the road and the two wins taking place at home. Of course, a little regression had to be in order for this team after it previously won 14 of 16 (while at the same time going 12-4 ATS) from the end of January until March 1st. They also just played Oklahoma City and San Antonio, two of the top three teams in the league, both on the road. Let us take a moment to appreciate the job HC Terry Stotts has done this year as four starters from LY's group (which went to the playoffs) left in the offseason, including All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge. My own personal power ratings suggest Portland should be the favorite here & I'm inclined to agree. Take the points. Last night in San Antonio, the Blazers "only" lost by eight, but that was after outscoring the Spurs 32-23 in a relatively meaningless fourth quarter. Then again, they were only down two at halftime. It seems to be that a halftime lead is key for Portland as they are 2-13 SU when trailing at the break, but 20-1 SU when leading! Therefore, the fact that tonight's opponent has a negative 1H scoring differential for the year has to be taken as a major positive. So too is the fact that the Pelicans are off a rare SU win (just their 2nd in the last 10 games) as they are just 3-10 ATS this year coming off a SU win as a dog. Going against bad teams this time of year is generally a good idea when they are off a win as it is unlikely that they will be able to drum up the effort to compete in B2B contests. Now, normally, when a team has gone just 2-8 SU its last 10 games, there might be some value there. But not here w/ New Orleans there isn't. The team they just beat (Sacramento) is the same team that accounts for their only other win over this 10-game span. The Pelicans scored a whopping 74 pts in the first half Wednesday, but that's well above "normal" levels and they should thus see a sharp decrease here. Now, the home side has been the winning side in all three previous Portland-New Orleans matchups this year, but it's a different story this time around as one team is still competing for a playoff berth. 8* Portland |
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03-18-16 | Pittsburgh +2 v. Wisconsin | Top | 43-47 | Loss | -104 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (6:50 ET): In what's widely perceived to be an "even" matchup, I feel that the wrong team is favored here. Wisconsin closed the regular season strong, winning 11 of 12 at one point, which earned interim HC Greg Gard the job on a permanent basis. But signs of regression have started to set in, namely a 91-80 loss at Purdue in the reg season finale and then an even more eye-opening defeat, 70-58 to Nebraska in the Big 10 Tournament. Now, yes, Pitt has lost three of four itself. But two of those losses came by exactly four points (on the road) and then the Panthers played a lot better in the ACC Tournament than the final scores showed. I'm taking the points here, but won't be surprised at all if it's an outright upset. Looking at Pitt's ACC Tourney results, they first beat Syracuse 72-71, a win that all but assured them of getting into the field of 68. While it was only a one-point victory, note they led by as many as 14 in the second half. A day later against North Carolina, the Panthers may have lost by 17, but that was a tie game w/ just under 16 minutes remaining. Even in the loss in the regular season finale to Georgia Tech, there was an excuse as guard Cameron Johnson was out and the team went 0 for 11 from three-point range. I understand that excuses don't "pay the bills," but to me Pitt is better than their record. They are 30th in offensive efficiency (KenPom), great on the offensive boards and have a rotation that goes 11-deep. Their tempo and physicality is a bad matchup for their opponent here. While Pitt may be an underachiever, to me Wisconsin has been an overachiever. That 11-1 run in Big 10 play caught a lot of people by surprise, myself included. I just cannot see them keeping pace in this game as they average only 63.9 PPG outside of Madison on 39.9% shooting. That was a really bad loss to Nebraska in the Big 10 Tourney where they scored only 58 points. Giving up 91 to Purdue the game prior wasn't inspiring either. While the pundits want to say the Badgers have "transformed" under Gard, the fact is it's the same plodding approach we saw under Bo Ryan. While we shouldn't discredit that style as it got them to a National Championship Game last year, this team isn't nearly as experienced or talented. I find it curious that Wisky is favored here as their point differential is just +4.3 while Pitt's is nearly +8.0. 10* Pittsburgh |
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03-18-16 | Temple v. Iowa -7.5 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -103 | 42 h 9 m | Show |
10* Iowa (3:10 ET): The Hawkeyes are one of those teams being labeled as "cold" coming into the Tourney. And I suppose that label is fair. Just to show how far Fran McCaffery's team has fallen, they were once ranked as high #3 in the human polls, but are now a seven seed! Yet, despite losing six of their last eight amidst cold shooting, the computers still think highly of this squad and so do I. Remember, they were 16-3 (straight up) at one point, starting 7-0 in Big 10 play and beat Michigan State twice. Yes, they faltered somewhat down the stretch, but historically there is no correlation between a poor regular season finish and an early NCAA Tournament exit. Temple is a popular "upset" pick here, but the Owls struggle when they aren't forcing turnovers and Iowa happens to be in the top 20 nationally in fewest TO's per game and seventh in assist to turnover ratio. Lay the points. Among "major" conferences, a group which include the American in, Temple has to be considered the weakest regular season champ. Consider that the Owls closed as a four-point dog to the #5 seed (UConn) in its own conference tourney and that was a day after UConn played a 4OT game (and they lost!). The circumstances there didn't prevent me from fading the Owls, nor will they here. While no team in the country turns it over less, Temple struggles when they aren't forcing them at the other end (just 6-9 SU when forcing 10 or less). Iowa gives it away only 10.4 times per game. The Owls shouldn't count on going to the free throw line much either in this one as Iowa sends its opponents there at the 10th lowest rate in the country. Just to illustrate how unpopular Iowa is right now in the public's eyes, no favorite is currently receiving a lower percentage of total handle. Yet, the line has hardly moved. That should tell you something right there. I believe that a team that averages 78.1 points per game (Hawkeyes) can absolutely get its shooting back on track after being below 40% overall the L5 games. Temple, meanwhile, barely shoots above 40% for the year. The Owls will miss freshman Trey Lowe here and forward Daniel Dingle is battling a wrist injury. This was a very good first round draw for the Hawkeyes. 10* Iowa |
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03-17-16 | Gonzaga -1 v. Seton Hall | Top | 68-52 | Win | 100 | 26 h 49 m | Show |
8* Gonzaga (9:55 ET): Any time you have a lower seed favored, it should set off alarm bells and that's what we have here w/ an 11-seed (Gonzaga) over a 6-seed (Seton Hall). Ironically, Seton Hall just won the Big East Tournament, so you can see what little respect that bought them. Yes, I must concede that they beat both Xavier and Villanova (both 2 seeds), on back to back days, along the way. But sometimes winning your conference tourney does more harm than good and in the case of a team that was already going to make the NCAA Tournament, I think that's the case here for the Pirates. I think that Gonzaga will relish being a much lower seed than past years and ironically, I can see them winning multiple games this weekend, something that eluded them often when seeded higher! Gonzaga is much better than your typical 11-seed. In fact, in a number of rankings that I respect, they are either right inside or outside of the Top 25! Only a regular season sweep at the hands of rival St. Mary's put their Tournament dreams in danger, but they avenged those by beating the Gaels in the WCC Tourney Final (I was on them). I think that a real key here is that the 'Zags haven't played since 3.8. Meanwhile, Seton Hall played three times in three days w/ the Big East Tourney not concluding until Sunday. The Pirates are right near the top of the country in terms of ATS record (22-9), but I feel they are due to regress of the outstanding effort last weekend. Gonzaga actually has a much better YTD point differential heading into this matchup (+13.5 to +7.0). Some of that is obviously owed to playing in the weaker WCC, but still, I feel it is noteworthy. With two star players - Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis - leading one of the top 25 offenses in terms of efficiency, Gonzaga was just a bad draw for Seton Hall. The Zags shot well against the two best defenses they saw during the regular season. On defense, the Bulldogs are excellent at guarding the three-point line (as is Seton Hall) and the fact they aren't that great at forcing turnovers is somewhat mitigated by the fact the Pirates often turn it over too much. Also, and I said this in my analysis for the Big East Title Game (won w/ the Under), don't be surprised if Seton Hall's poor FT shooting costs them. I'd just be afraid that the Pirates "wasted" some of their best efforts in the conference tourney. One final point is the venue, Denver, which actually favors Gonzaga. 8* Gonzaga |
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03-17-16 | Providence v. USC +2 | Top | 70-69 | Win | 100 | 25 h 60 m | Show |
10* USC (9:50 ET): Providence seems to be receiving overwhelming support here and I'm trying to figure out why. Sure the Friars come in riding a five-game ATS win streak. But before that they had failed to cover six in a row, going just 1-5 straight up. Early on, there were some pretty clear warning signs that this team was a bit of a mirage despite a 14-1 SU start (finished just 9-9 L18 games). Of course, a poor finish to its regular season is doing USC no favors here. The Trojans are just 2-6 ATS their last eight (3-5 straight up) and their defense really seemed to fail them down the stretch, giving up 80 or more points in four of those games. Yet I still have them rated as the better team coming into this one, so take the points. Another reason that the public seems to be flocking towards the Friars is their outstanding duo of Ben Bentil and Kris Dunn. But Andy Enfield happens to have quite a lot of talent on hand at Southern California as well. In fact, his Trojans happen to run a lot deeper than does Providence w/ six players averaging at least 9.8 points per game and seven have scored at least 19 in a game this year. The team ranks in the top 20 overall at 80.8 PPG. Rebounding, particularly on the offensive end, is going to be huge for USC here. They average 15 offensive rebounds per game and overlooked in the last season slide was the absence of Darion Clark, who missed seven games and the team didn't have the rebounding edge in any of them. He's back and had 20 rebounds in the two Pac 12 Tournament games. Something to keep in mind is that USC's last three losses have all come to teams seeded 4 or higher in the tournament. Providence, once ranked as high as eighth in the country, fell all the way to a nine seed. They have been "one and done" each of the last two years in the Tournament. Meanwhile, Enfield knows what it's like to win in March as he was the one guiding that stunning run of Florida Gulf Coast a few years back. Remember what I said about USC's offense? Well, Providence sometimes struggles to score in the half court (despite the individual talent) and is only 31.5% from three-point range this year. I look for the three-point shot to be the difference in this one. Note Providence averages exactly 74.0 PPG and the Trojans are a perfect 14-0 straight up this season when holding their opponent that amount or fewer. 10* USC |
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03-17-16 | Stony Brook +14 v. Kentucky | Top | 57-85 | Loss | -103 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
10* Stony Brook (9:40 ET): A lot of good winning the SEC Tournament did Kentucky. Despite winning three games in three days, the Wildcats actually received a lower seed than the team they beat in the Final (Texas A&M). As a result, as soon as the bracket was released, we began hearing all about how UK deserved better than a 4-seed. The oddsmakers certainly seem to agree, installing them among the top six w/ the best odds to win the entire Tournament! But, let's pump the brakes a little, shall we? All this talk of potential matchups with Indiana and perhaps North Carolina will have Coach Cal's team likely overlooking first round opponent, Stony Brook, champions out of the America East. Take the points here. Many times it pays to fade a trendy underdog in this tournament, that "sexy" upset that everyone seems to be on. Well, there's also a handful of teams (and this year Kentucky would be among them) that come from bigger conferences, seemingly w/ all the momentum in the world off a tourney win and then promptly struggle in the Big Dance. Kentucky has covered its last five games. But its SEC semifinal win over Georgia was no "walk in the park" despite what the 93-80 final said. The Wildcats trailed for much of the game, even by double digits in the first half, and didn't put things away until late. Sunday's Final vs. Texas A&M was an overtime game. Note that outside of Lexington, the Wildcats are just 9-8 straight up this season w/ a scoring differential of just +4.4 points per game. We know about Kentucky's Tyler Ulis, but Stony Brook has a stud in their own right in the form of Jameel Warney, who averages 19.5 points and 10.7 rebounds per game. Warney went for 43 (points) in the team's 80-74 win over Vermont to clinch the automatic bid. Overall, the Seawolves can shoot (47.7 FG%), including 37 percent from three-point range. They also do a good job at grabbing offensive rebounds (34.4 percent of all misses), which could be huge as that's a sore spot for UK on defense. I just think that the Kentucky "hype train" is a little out of control entering the Tournament and they are due for a major scare here. 10* Stony Brook |
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03-17-16 | Yale +5.5 v. Baylor | Top | 79-75 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
8* Yale (2:45 ET): I shouldn't have to tell you that "every year a 12-seed will upset a 5-seed" (well, not last year). Scanning this year's matchups, this to me looks like the most ideal candidate. It's the one with the shortest spread, that's for sure. Also, it's not as if Baylor is immune to being upset. In last year's Tourney, they were beaten by a 14-seed (Georgia State) in their first game and a lot of the weaknesses present there are still present here. Yale, the Ivy League Champion that didn't have to play a conference tourney, certainly won't be lacking for motivation here as this is their first appearance in the Big Dance since 1962. Despite the lack of Tournament experience, the Bulldogs are an experienced team that has averaged 24 wins per season the last four years. Take the points. I mentioned earlier that many of the same issues that plagued Baylor last year are likely to cost them again here. For starters, they turn the ball over far too much. We're talking once every 5.3 possessions, a very high rate, which ranks 228th nationally. They also don't defend the three-point shot particularly well, allowing opponents to shoot 37.1%, which ranks 295th nationally. Again, not good, especially considering Yale comes in shooting at a 37.4% clip behind the arc, not to mention 47.1% overall. Even Baylor's biggest strength, which is rebounding, is somewhat mitigated by the fact that Yale is actually the taller team here (really!) and ranks second in the country in rebounding differential at +11.1 per game. Yale has a tremendous player, that being Justin Sears, the Ivy League Player of the Year. Sears averaged 15.6 points per game during the regular, despite B2B poor games at the end of the regular season. He should bounce back from that here given Baylor's penchant to allow teams to shoot the ball well. Yale only allows 63.1 PPG and a real key to this game is the fact they like to really slow the tempo down, thereby limiting the total number of possessions. Slowing the pace is a trait of successful upset bids in the past. Yale has won 17 of its last 18 games overall, so this is a team that "knows how to win." They also went 4-0 ATS in neutral court settings. Don't discount the little bit of an advantage the underdog has here by playing in nearby Providence. 8* Yale |
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03-16-16 | Clippers +3 v. Rockets | Top | 122-106 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (9:35 ET): This line simply looks way off to me as my own personal power ratings have the Clippers favored by three in this matchup. I often stress the value that can be found on teams playing in the second game of a back to back, especially if they're on the road, and that's the case here w/ the Clips after they lost in San Antonio last night (no real shame there). Meanwhile, Houston (who has been overvalued much of this season) comes into this one even more overvalued than usual after posting a 49-point beatdown of undermanned Memphis Monday night. Thus, each team's previous result could not serve as a better set up to this one as the wrong team is now favored. Take the points. So, LA is coming off B2B 20+ point losses, first to Cleveland and then to the Spurs. Note that in their first 64 games, they did not suffer a single loss by 20 or more. Also note that their last two opponents are among the top four teams in the entire league. Against Cleveland, they fell victim to 18 made three-pointers by the Cavaliers while shooting just 40.5% from the floor themselves. Last night in San Antonio, the final score was a bit misleading in the sense that it was just a one-point game heading into the fourth quarter. Going from Cleveland-San Antonio to Houston is a drop in class for Doc Rivers' team and one that the should be able to handle. Certainly, we should see an increase in production from the Clippers offense against a Rockets defense that can't stop a nosebleed. After a five-game East Coast swing, Houston returned home to find a depleted Memphis squad and took advantage by shooting a lights out 54.1% against the Grizzlies (who were at just 29.7% themselves). Those kind of performances simply haven't happened much for the Rockets this year as they have toiled in mediocrity w/ a negative YTD point differential due to a defense that allows a ghastly 106.6 points per game. Monday marked just the second time all season that they allowed fewer than 85 points. The last time they played the Clippers, they gave up 140, albeit that game went to overtime. Hopefully, Paul Pierce plays tonight for the Clips, but even if he doesn't I'm expecting increased production from team's bench. 8* LA Clippers |
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03-16-16 | Tulsa +4.5 v. Michigan | Top | 62-67 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
10* Tulsa (9:10 ET): Tulsa is being "written off" as the team least deserving of a bid, but it's not as if Michigan has an extra leg to stand on. In fact, these teams had two common opponents during the regular season - SMU and UConn - and while Tulsa holds a win over both, Michigan went 0-2. Of course, Wolverines' fans may cry "not fair" because Tulsa got two cracks each at those two teams (conference opponents), but still, the Maize and Blue lost those games badly. Both were double digit losses w/ Michigan losing by a combined 38 points. Yet they appear to be the overwhelming favorite here, not necessarily in terms of the line, but rather the ticket count. I think writing off Tulsa is a mistake and give them a great shot at pulling the outright upset. Take the points. The last time we saw Tulsa they were suffering a bad loss to Memphis, 89-67, as five-point chalk. In the interest of "full disclosure," I was on them there and I think the nature of the defeat is what has the majority of bettors flocking to the other side here. But lest we forget, the Golden Hurricane are an experienced group, one that starts four seniors and a junior. The three-point shot, which can be such an ally this time of year, betrayed them in the Memphis game as they went just 4 of 15 from behind the arc. Note that Michigan has allowed its opponents to shoot 46.4% outside of Ann Arbor this season. Not only did Tulsa beat SMU and UConn during the regular season, but they also have wins over Cincinnati and Temple, two other Tourney teams from the American, plus they beat Iona and Wichita State early in the season. Michigan, remember, is playing w/o its best player, Caris LaVert. After they lost to Purdue in the manner that they did, I was a little surprised to see the Wolverines included in the field of 68. Their two wins in the Big 10 Tournament were quite fortunate as both came via last second shots (one in overtime) and the combined margin of victory was just five points. During the regular season, they had just three wins over Tourney teams. A concern I have with this team is that it ranks 326nd nationally in rebounding. They've also averaged just 64.2 points over their L5 games. 10* Tulsa |
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03-16-16 | Bucknell +8 v. Monmouth | Top | 80-90 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
8* Bucknell (7:30 ET): I'm really liking what I see here. I can only imagine that the vast majority of the betting public is going to want to "get down" on Monmouth (a 1-seed here in the NIT), who is believed by many to be the NCAA Tournament's biggest "snub." However, let's return to yday's discussion of motivation or lack there of. The key to handicapping the NIT, and why I've been so successful through the years, is assessing each team's level of motivation coming into the event. Like St. Mary's, who struggled to win on Tuesday, I anticipate less than "peak Monmouth" here as the players still have to be disappointed from not getting invited to the Big Dance. Take the points. Bucknell, like Monmouth, is an automatic qualifier for the NIT due to being the regular season champ of their conference. That conference happens to be the Patriot League and during a week where we saw numerous top seeds go down, the Bison's early exit from their conference tourney had to rank right up there w/ the most shocking. Playing in their home arena, they lost to 8-seed Holy Cross, who of course would go on to make an improbable run and take the Patriot League's automatic bid. Bucknell was a 13.5-pt favorite in that loss and shot just 33.8 percent. Note that upset seems like "forever ago" (13 days!), so the Bison players are likely "chomping at the bit" to get back out on the court. Unlike Bucknell, Monmouth had to wait all the way until Sunday to find out their NCAA Tournament fate and as we know that wait ended up in disappointment. This team attracts a lot of attention for the silly antics of its bench players and while the 13 non-conf road games it played are nice, they lost to the likes of Army, Canisius and Manhattan, all of whom Vegas ranks outside the top 200. I was not surprised to see the Hawks lose in the MAAC Final, nor was Vegas, as Iona actually closed as the favorite for that game. It's interesting that this line hasn't moved at all despite the high ticket count (so far) on the favorite. Monmouth is ripe to be upset. 8* Bucknell |
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03-16-16 | Thunder v. Celtics +3.5 | Top | 130-109 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:05 ET): Hey! Here's a bit of a surprise. Last night, I played AGAINST Boston as they fell in Indiana, 103-98 as 2.5-pt dogs. It was the Celtics' second straight loss and dropped them to 1-4 ATS their last five games overall. However, if you're a regular client or just familiar with my usual handicapping strategy, then you really shouldn't be surprised to see me "zigging" and "zagging" with the guys in green at all. Especially since on the other side we have an Oklahoma City team that's clearly overvalued coming in due to a 34-point bea tdown they laid on Portland Monday night. Remember that the Thunder have been the worst ATS team in the league for basically the entire duration of the season (currently 26-38-3). My own personal power ratings have this game as basically a pick 'em. Take the points. It's not as if the Celtics were blown out in either of the last two games. Last Friday, as a 4.5-pt home favorite, they fell to the Rockets by only four points. That snapped a 14-game home win streak, by the way. Yesterday, they were on the road against perhaps a more desperate Indiana team and it was close throughout, ending up at a five-point margin. While some (and I actually did label this as a key going into the game) will point to the absence of Jae Crowder last night, the bottom line is the Celtics have shot below 40% in the B2B losses. I think we should see the offense bounce back here at home where it averages an impressive 106.3 PPG. Also, remember what I said in yday's analysis about Boston being a great bet when playing w/o rest? Under Brad Stevens, they are a league-best 36-16 ATS in the second game of back to backs! This is an interesting matchup in the sense that it is the league's second most efficient offense (OKC) vs. the third most efficient defense (Boston). I understand that the Celtics won't have Crowder again, but they'll instead benefit from some plan old regression on the Thunder side as no way does OKC match its last performance where they shot almost 60% from the floor and scored 128 points. Note that OKC is just 7-17 ATS this season following a double digit win. Also, the Celtics seem to be at their best when the oddsmakers call for a high-scoring game as they are on a 25-10 ATS run when the total is 210 points or higher. 8* Boston |
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03-15-16 | Vanderbilt +3.5 v. Wichita State | Top | 50-70 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 57 m | Show |
10* Vanderbilt (9:10 ET): I think that the general consensus is that the winner of this game is a strong candidate to carry on the tradition of "first four" teams winning multiple NCAA Tournament games. Certainly, the six seed (Arizona) can't be too happy about drawing either Vanderbilt or Wichita State in the Round of 64. As for the game itself, I actually rate Vandy as the better team on a neutral floor, which is where this game is taking place (Dayton), so taking points is a strong value. Wichita State may have rolled through the Missouri Valley this year, but this is not a conference game. The Shockers were upset by Northern Iowa in the conference tourney and are just 4-6 ATS in non-conference games. Take the points. Vandy was a really frustrating team during the regular season and losing in the SEC Tournament to Tennessee was somewhat emblematic of their entire campaign so far. But still, it was only a two-point loss for the Commodores and close losses were somewhat common for this team. They had six by five points or less, which tells me that the record easily could have been a lot better. Most will call Wichita State the better defensive team in this matchup, and deservedly so, but the Commies allowed just one point per possession in SEC play despite not forcing many turnovers. In many ways, that's just as impressive as what WSU did to a weak MVC. While many are surprised to see Wichita State here (placed in a 'play in' game), note that Vandy was a preseason top 20 team as well and just as potentially dangerous down the line. The Commies closed the regular season on an 11-5 run and I see three-point shooting largely determining the outcome of this ball game. Vandy is not only prolific at shooting from behind the arc, but also is third in the country in 3-pt FG% defense. As a matter of fact, Vandy ranks 8th nationally in overall field goal percentage defense! If I'm Wichita State, I'd be a bit worried that their best basketball could be "behind them" as they scored only 52 points in the loss to Northern Iowa and also struggled to beat Loyola IL the previous day. I love Vandy's "inside-outside" game offensively and feel Wichita State will struggle to defend in this one. Also, the Commodores' size (two 7-footers) should give the Shockers plenty of trouble. 10* Vanderbilt |
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03-15-16 | Long Beach State +9 v. Washington | Top | 102-107 | Win | 100 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
8* Long Beach State (9:00 ET): Spoiler alert: I'm not forecasting a strong showing by the Pac 12 in the NCAA Tournament, so it stands to reason that Washington is similarly overvalued coming into this year's NIT. The Huskies first opponent is Long Beach State and while this one takes place up in Seattle, I foresee a very tight game throughout. LBSU came very close to knocking off top seeded Hawaii in the Big West Championship Game (lost by 4) and has really "cleaned up" in the underdog role this season, going 11-5 against the spread. Meanwhile, Washington is a team that has dropped seven of its last 10 contests and I see them being the less interested if the two teams here. Take the points. Washington, who prefers an up-tempo style, had to be disappointed that they got Oregon to play at their pace and yet still came up short in the Pac 12 quarterfinals. Though here at home they are holding opponents to just 40.3% shooting from the field, those same teams are averaging 76.6 points per game. One way to win if you're an underdog this time of year is the three-point shot and LBSU happens to be 37.6% from behind the arc this season. The Huskies have allowed over 80 points in four of their last five contests. With LBSU just having nearly pulled an upset over the top team in its league, despite shooting only 37.3 percent for the game, they have to be feeling pretty confident here. HC Dan Monson always challenges his team w/ a tough non-conference slate and considering the 49ers finished that portion of the schedule 8-3 ATS despite playing the likes of Seton Hall, Virginia, Oregon, Arizona and Duke, suffice to say they will not be intimidated here. Both of these teams tend to give up points in bunches, but LBSU is off one of its better defensive efforts as they held Hawaii to just 64 pts in the Big West Championship Game. Consider that the 49ers twice beat Hawaii (Big West reg season champ) in the regular season too. But I have to go back to the three-point shot as the 49ers set a school record w/ 279 made this season and I anticipate they'll get their fair share of good looks tonight. As a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 pts this season, LBSU is a perfect 3-0 ATS. 8* Long Beach State |
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03-15-16 | Celtics v. Pacers -1.5 | Top | 98-103 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
8* Indiana (7:05 ET): Both the Pacers and Celtics will be looking to bounce back from losses their last times out. Boston, as a 4.5-point favorite, fell outright at home to Houston, which is rather embarrassing. But more embarrassing is what happened to Indiana - a 29-point loss at Atlanta on Sunday. That came on the heels of three consecutive SU wins as a dog, so previously the Pacers had been beating the oddsmakers projections, most notably a 99-91 upset of San Antonio in their most recent home game. The Celtics, who have been off since Friday, are just a .500 team on the road and have dropped two of three so far this year against Indiana. That has me on the home side, laying a short number here, as they are a perfect 2-0 ATS this year laying three points or less at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. It was the second game of a back to back and off a win, you might figure that the Pacers would be due for an off-night Saturday. But things quickly went awry in Atlanta and the team ended up scoring a season-low 75 points on just 37.9% shooting (5 of 24 from three-point range). Not to mention, they were only 4 of 7 from the free-throw line! Paul George was just 3 of 15 from the field and finished w/ only seven points, well below his season average. Needless to say, we will see an increase in offensive output here from George and the Pacers now that they return home where they average a healthy 102.7 points per game. They also don't figure to end up on the wrong end of a 20-0 run again. Indiana has done really well in conference games this year, going 25-14 ATS. They are also 9-2 ATS on exactly two days rest. Boston will be w/o a key defender for this one, that being Jae Crowder. That should allow George to have a big game. Offensively, the Celtics had been on fire since the All-Star Break, but them failing to break 100 against the woeful Rockets had to be a disappointment. With a big home game looming vs. Oklahoma City tomorrow night, don't be surprised if Boston gets caught "peeking ahead." One of the more interesting tidbits with the Celtics under Brad Stevens is how much better they've been (ATS) when on no rest compared to rested. In the L3 years, they have been the best team in the league w/o rest at the betting window. Otherwise, they are basically a 50/50 proposition. This one goes to the home team. 8* Indiana |
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03-15-16 | Akron v. Ohio State -5 | Top | 63-72 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
10* Ohio State (7:00 ET): In handicapping the NIT, assessing individual teams' respective level of motivation is key. Now, normally, when we think of an unmotivated team, a disinterested favorite comes to mind. But keep in mind that (this year especially) there are a number of "mid major" schools who had aspirations of playing in the Big Dance that did not come to pass. One such squad is Akron, regular season champs out of the MAC. The 26-8 Zips were upset in the Final of their Conference Tourney, losing to Buffalo on a last second three-pointer. I feel that it is going to be very difficult for the players to get over that, especially considering the loss took place just four days ago. On the road, against a school from a "Power Conference," is not a good situation for the Zips at all. Lay the small number. Ohio State had an ugly end to its Big 10 Tourney run as they had the misfortune of running into Michigan State. The final result there was 81-54 Sparty, the third time that the Buckeyes had lost to Tom Izzo's team over a three-week span. But Michigan State is actually the ONLY team to beat Ohio State since February 9th as the Buckeyes have won six of nine. Granted, this was not Thad Matta's best team this year, but OSU still went 14-5 SU at home, holding visitors to an average of just 62.5 points per game. Something to consider is that this is Akron's first "true" road game since Feb 23rd when they lost outright at lowly Miami (OH). In fact, the Zips have lost three straight "true" road games. Akron is likely to "live and die" by the three-point shot in this one and while OSU has been prone to letting teams shoot well from behind the arc, I'm just not convinced that the three-point shot alone can carry the Zips here. What I find to be more interesting is that Akron got away w/ its opponents (a much weaker schedule than OSU, obviously) shooting only 29.5% from three-point range, one of the lowest percentages in the entire country. While it is tempting to take the "little guy" in this matchup of in-state foes, beware of the fact that Akron is probably far less interested to "be here" than is Ohio State. This is really a small number for the Buckeyes to be laying on their home court. 10* Ohio State |
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03-14-16 | Mavs +7 v. Hornets | Top | 107-96 | Win | 100 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
10* Dallas (7:05 ET): There is no denying the vastly different directions these two teams have been trending in recently. Charlotte, who I've defended much of this year, has been on fire. They are not just 7-0 straight up (6-1 against the spread) in March, but 15-3 SU (13-5 ATS) their L18 games overall. That's the longest active win streak in the league and as a result the Hornets are up to fifth in the East. As for Dallas, well, they are 0-5 SU and ATS their last five overall and that has them down in eighth over in the West. I refuse to accept that the Mavs are this bad, in fact, they've actually been competitive in every game during this losing streak of theirs. The line looks just a little bit high to me here and as a result, I'm taking the points. Twice this season, we have seen the Mavs close as road underdogs of 6.5 to 9 points. Both times they not only covered, but also took the game straight up. It is interesting that they have been favored in eight of the last 10 games, including four of five during this losing streak, which has seen them fall by seven points or less in all of those. Saturday saw them 112-105 at home to Indiana. The Pacers were 27 of 29 from the free-throw line, which was very key, especially in what was a one-point game multiple times in the fourth quarter. Not only is this Dallas' longest losing streak of this season, it is the league's longest active losing streak. Simply put, this is "must win" territory for Rick Carlisle's team, who has upcoming games vs. Cleveland, Golden State and Portland. The Mavericks have won 19 of 22 all-time meetings w/ the Hornets. One of those three losses took place very early this season, 108-94 as 3.5-point favorites. Dallas didn't shoot well (39%), but Charlotte did (49.4%) and lately we have seen the Hornets' offensive numbers continue to exceed YTD levels. During the seven-game win streak, they are averaging 118 points per game (43.1% 3-pt shooting). For the season, they average only 103.3 PPG. Eventually, they are going to have to start regressing back to that average. One more win and they would match the franchise's longest win streak this century. Another loss for Dallas and they are under .500 for the first time since November 10th. Hopefully, you can see where I'm going with this one as the "law of averages" dictates taking the points, if not expecting an outright win entirely. 10* Dallas |
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03-13-16 | Knicks -1.5 v. Lakers | Top | 90-87 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
10* New York (9:05 ET): Recently, I've had a good pulse on when to take the Knicks. Last Saturday, they were a generous seven-point dog (at home) against the Pistons and came through with a big 102-89 upset. The result was even better on Wednesday as they dismantled Phoenix, on the road, 128-97 in game where the public had bet them to the role of underdog. Now, HC Kurt Rambis' tenure hasn't gone particularly well and the team did lose Friday on the road to the Clippers, 101-94 (but left w/ the cash as 10.5-pt dogs). But getting to stay in LA and dropping in class to play the Lakers should be to their liking. The Lakers still are getting too much residual credit for that shocking upset of the Warriors last Sunday. Lay the short number. I certainly don't have much regard for this Lakers team and in fact have had them right at the bottom of my own personal power ratings for much of the season, even below Philadelphia. Right now, the two are neck and neck. Whereas Philly's problem lies on the offensive end, the Lakers issue clearly is defense, or a lack of it. All season long, they have been dead last in terms of efficiency and currently they allow 109.2 points per 100 possessions. They allow 107.1 per game and just gave up 120 in Thursday's loss to Cleveland, falling behind by as many as 17 in the fourth quarter. Of course, offense is also an issue with this team as they also rank dead last in the league in terms of "true" shooting. After watching Kobe Bryant, the league's worst jump shooter by far, go 11 for 16 the last game, suffice to say he won't be repeating that performance again. The Knicks just had their way w/ another bad defensive team (Phoenix) the other night, so I look for the offense to come alive here after shooting just 41 percent against the Clippers, who had too much offensive might of their own for NY to compete. But one bright spot for the Knicks there was the play of Kristaps Porzingis, who went for 23 points Friday. The Knicks did down the Lakers, 99-95, earlier in the year. That was despite shooting less than 40% from the floor. They are 5-1 ATS this season on the road if the total is between 205 and 209.5. 10* New York |
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03-13-16 | Cavs v. Clippers +1.5 | Top | 114-90 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (3:30 ET): The Cavs are 2-0 on the current road trip, but by no means has it been easy. First, they were tooth and nail with the lowly Kings all the way into the fourth quarter (trailed 60-54 at halftime) on Wednesday. The following night, in LA, I took them and it took awhile to shake the sorry Lakers. Eventually, they won 120-108 as a 9.5-point choice. But after being fortunate enough to play the two worst defensive teams in the league, back to back, Cleveland will find things much more challenging here as they stay in Los Angeles to take on the Clippers. My own personal power rating disagree w/ them being favored in this spot as the difference between the two is fairly negligible. Take the points. The Clippers are off a win, 101-94 over the Knicks. But they did not take the cash as they were favored by 10.5 in that spot. At halftime of that game, it certainly appeared as if they would cover as they held a double digit lead thanks to shooting 51.2 percent. But a 15-point third quarter changed all that. All five starters did score in double figures, but the problem was a bench that ran just four deep and added just 20 points. Taking points at home is rare for the Clips though. This will be just the seventh time it's happened this season and they are 4-2 against the spread. Overall, they are 22-11 SU at the Staples Center this season, outscoring opponents by 6.2 points per game. They are also a strong 20-7 SU vs. the Eastern Conference. These teams met in Cleveland in late January and the Cavs prevailed 115-102 as 6.5-point favorites. One key was Cleveland going 13 of 27 from three-point range compared to just 6 of 25 for the Clippers. For the record, these two teams average the same # of three-pointers made per game (10) for the year and the Clips have a slightly better percentage. Los Angeles also did themselves no favors by missing 12 of 36 free throws back in Cleveland. I don't imagine we'll be seeing such lopsided shooting percentages in the Cavs' favor this afternoon and you have to remember this team has not been very good at the betting window all year, including 24-32 ATS as a favorite (they are one of just three East Conf teams below 50% ATS overall!). I just don't agree with the road team being favored here. 8* LA Clippers |
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03-13-16 | Louisiana-Monroe v. Arkansas-Little Rock -4.5 | Top | 50-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
10* Arkansas Little Rock (1:00 ET): These were the top two teams in the Sun Belt during the regular season and the tournament format clearly favored them w/ the double byes into the semifinals. Both Arkansas Little Rock and (much to my chagrin) LA Monroe won comfortably on Saturday as the former downed LA Lafayette 72-65 while the latter took care of UT Arlington 81-72. Both covered the respective spreads. Covering the spread is something LA Monroe has done quite a bit in the past vs. today's counterpart (6-0 ATS L6), but I look for that trend to come to an end Sunday for this potential "bid thief" as the top seed (only four SU losses) is just too strong this year and will move on w/ relative ease to the NCAA Tournament. It was two close games during the regular season between these two w/ the home team winning both. However, LA Monroe was a big 11-pt dog at Little Rock when they lost 58-57 on January 9th. One month later, they pulled a minor upset (were +2), beating the Trojans 86-82. That was one of just three Sun Belt losses for ALR, who outscored conference foes by a dominating 9.4 points per game this year. Had the Trojans not dropped a meaningless regular season finale (at Appalachian State), they would have finished as the only three-loss team in the country. Yet, given all the upsets we've seen over the past week, I'm not convinced they will make the NCAA Tournament though if they were to fall here. This is not like the UConn-Memphis game in the American where one team knows it is safely in while the other must win. ALR will absolutely "show up" ready to go. I went against LA Monroe yday and was clearly disappointed at the result there. Early on, things looked great from my perspective. UT Arlington actually raced out to a 12-0 lead, but from there it was all Warhawks. The keys were ULM shooting 13 of 27 from three-point range and getting a career-high 21 points from DeMondre Harvey. Note that for the year, Arkansas Little Rock holds teams to just 59.8 PPG and 30.8% shooting from three-point range. The current win streak of 10 games is the longest for ULM in 22 seasons, but it comes to an end here. 10* Arkansas Little Rock |
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03-12-16 | Pelicans +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 92-103 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (7:35 ET): It was a tough loss for the Pelicans last night as they fell in Memphis, 121-114 in overtime. The injury-riddled Grizzlies strung together multiple career-best performances from a rag-tag group of players. The Pelicans' defensive numbers and road record should certainly give us pause, but fortunately for tonight bettors seem willing to lay the points with an equally bad Milwaukee team. The Bucks are off a surprising result; that being a 114-108 win (here at home) over Miami as 3.5-pt dogs. But consider that the first time these teams played, the Pelicans won by 17 and that's despite the Bucks shooting 52.7% overall, including 6 of 15 from three-point range and they were 83.3% from the line....and they still lost! Take the points. New Orleans has actually beaten Milwaukee six straight times (17-2 L19 meetings!) and a big reason for that is Anthony Davis, who has averaged 28.5 PPG the last four times they've played. Davis will certainly be the best player on the floor tonight and last night, he turned in 25 pts and 13 rebounds. Lately, he's been getting lots of help from PG Jrue Holliday (34 pts last night). Unfortunately, the team has still dropped six of seven, though many of those defeats have been close. Every one has been by single digits, including two by a combined seven pts. Last night was an overtime game and they've also had to play San Antonio during this stretch. My own personal power ratings have these teams rated dead even, so the points are a premium here. Milwaukee isn't favored often and when they are, results are mixed (7-7). Tonight marks the most points that they will have had to lay in any game since before Christmas when they hosted Philadelphia. Off a SU win this year, they are only 10-16 SU. Just twice since Feb 1 have they posted B2B victories. It is important to remember that this is a bad team, one that is being outscored by essentially four points per game. It's also important to note that just like they are here, they were at home after their two previous wins and both times they lost. With this number being driven up, the value is on the dog here. 10* New Orleans |
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03-12-16 | Texas-Arlington -1.5 v. Louisiana-Monroe | Top | 71-82 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
10* UT Arlington (4:30 ET): The Mavericks of UT Arlington came into the year as the favorites in the Sun Belt, but a season-ending injury to leading scorer Kevin Hervey threatened to derail their entire campaign. Remember that this is a team that delivered B2B non-conference road wins over Ohio State and Memphis back in November! Since Hervey has gone down, the team is just 4-11 against the spread, but note that they were favored in the vast majority of those games and have still managed a winning straight up record, including 4-0 here in March. In yday's quarterfinal victory over Texas State, the final score was 72-63, but the Mavericks just missed out on covering as 9.5-pt chalk. Maybe you're surprised here that they are a slight favorite over the team w/ a bye (LA Monroe), but don't be. Lay the short number. Now, UT Arlington did need to rally back from a small halftime deficit yday. But they closed strong and honestly, I'd rather them save "their best" for this game as opposed to the previous game. This is a double revenge spot for the Mavericks, who dropped both regular season matchups to LA Monroe despite being favored in both games. (Hervey did not play in either game). The last time they met, it was a close game, 64-61 in Arlington as the Warhawks closed as seven-point dogs. I can't see the Mavericks losing for a third time and it's telling that they are still favored here despite LA Monroe being off the bye. Something you probably did not know is that UT Arlington is first in the country in rebounding, 12th in assists and 31st in points per game. They shot only 38.1% from the field last night (28.1% from 3-pt range), a number we should see go up here. LA Monroe comes into this game on a nine-game win streak, so to some it is curious that they are the underdog here. Four of those wins were by five points or less, however, and their overall record remains worse than that of UT-Arlington. Before this nine-game win streak started, the Warhawks were only 10-12 SU. UT Arlington has won 9 of 11 themselves and the two losses were a) to Monroe by three and b) to SBC regular season champ Ark Little Rock on the road. The Mavericks have 10 wins away from home compared to just six for LA Monroe and a greater scoring margin in conference play. 10* UT Arlington |
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03-12-16 | Connecticut -2.5 v. Temple | Top | 77-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
8* UConn (3:00 ET): This is a little contrarian here as UConn is coming off yday's incredible 4OT win over Cincinnati, so the fact they are w/o rest will have most bettors willing to line up against them. But it is telling that they remain favored over the #1 seed in this American Tourney, that being Temple. The top-seeded Owls are perhaps the weakest #1 seed in any major conference tournament and I have to believe this line would have been a lot higher were it not for yday's marathon effort from the Huskies. Interestingly enough, both regular season meetings saw Temple upset UConn, so the precedent is there. However, both games were very close and I can't help but think the Huskies will be energized not only by what happened yesterday, but by the double revenge angle as well. Lay the number. UConn was favored in both regular season games vs. Temple, first by 10 at home, then by five on the road. Yes, they did lose both games. But using those lines as a barometer, I can't help but think we're getting a great value here on the Huskies, especially because the public perception will be that the team is "too tired" and at a major disadvantage playing the second of back to back games. Were this their third game in as many days, I might be inclined to agree, but the bottom line is that UConn had four days off prior to yesterday. I think the "fatigue factor" is somewhat overrated this time of year and the players are going to be just fine here. Remember that they have four players averaging double figures in points. Temple won yday by a score of 89-72 over a bad South Florida team, so that's serving to bring the line down as well. But this Owls team is incredibly shaky as a #1 seed given that they were just +3.0 PPG in conference play despite a 15-4 SU record. Over the course of the entire season, they were only able to outscore opponents by just under two points per game, yet won over two-thirds of their games. I can only assume that "the world" was waiting to line up to bet against UConn here, but Temple just happens to be the wrong team to take. For the sake of comparison, the Huskies are outscoring opponents by 10.0 PPG this year. 8* UConn |
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03-12-16 | Pacers v. Mavs | Top | 112-105 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
8* Dallas (2:05 ET): The Mavs and Pacers seem to be two teams trending in opposite directions. But is recent form truly indicative of overall play this season? I think not. Dallas has lost four straight games, three of them at home and three of them as favorites. But all of those games were close, save for Monday's 109-90 loss to the Clippers and even that one saw them have the lead at halftime. They've now dropped into eighth place in the Western Conference, a precarious place to be sure. I cannot see them losing again, especially at home, and Indiana seems to be getting "too much credit" for its (admittedly impressive) upset of San Antonio Monday night. I look for a reversal of recent fortunes here. While the Pacers did beat the Spurs, 99-91 as 6.5-point home dogs, they have had their troubles w/ the Western Conference this season. They're still only 12-14 straight up and an even worse 8-18 against the spread in non-conference games. It's been B2B upsets for them (won at Washington last Saturday) and overall the team is 4-1 ATS its last five games. But they still have a losing road record and it's highly unlikely that the Mavs shoot 35.4% here, which is what the Spurs (4 of 28 on three-point attempts) did Monday night, their season-low. Also, it should be pointed out that San Antonio was w/o HC Greg Popovich (family emergency). Indiana's defense generally isn't that great (101.9 PPG allowed) and Dallas can score. Now, the Mavs are off B2B sub-100 point games, which is a rarity for them. Previously, they'd topped the century mark in ten straight games. Still w/ a winning record at home, the team averages 104.6 PPG here at home and overall it rates in the top eight in terms of offensive efficiency. There was some sketchy officiating in Wednesday's home loss to Detroit (technical foul called on Deron Williams). Keep in mind that this is now Dallas' longest losing streak of the entire season. Thus, we're now able to get them at essentially a pick 'em at home, a great value all things considered. It was an ugly 26-point loss in Indiana back in December, but the line for that game was 4.5, so I can't see how the Mavs aren't favored in this situation. 8* Dallas |
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03-12-16 | LSU +7.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 38-71 | Loss | -131 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
8* LSU (1:00 ET): Anything short of winning the SEC Tournament probably means LSU won't be in the field of 68 next week, thereby denying us the opportunity to watch the top NBA prospect in the country (Ben Simmons) on the grandest stage. So, yes, there will be a tremendous sense of urgency from the Bayou Bengals this afternoon as they take on top seeded Texas A&M. They had little difficulty w/ 12-seed Tennessee yday, winning 84-75 and covering as 5.5-pt chalk. I was less inclined to back LSU as a favorite, but now taking points against an A&M side that was quite fortunate to cover yday as 5.5-pt faves themselves (never led by more than the final margin of six!). Take the points here. These teams met twice during the regular season, each winning at home. Given that the line was +7.5 in College Station, this looks like a strong value. That game came at a time when A&M was playing really well and the final score was a bit misleading in the sense that the score was tied 44-44 w/ 15 minutes remaining. But LSU was held to just 23 pts in the second half and Simmons 10 for the entire game. On Feb 13, the Tigers got their revenge, however, winning 76-71 as Simmons went for 16-11-7 and this time the team scored 43 pts after halftime. A&M hasn't lost since, but one certainly has to question their level of motivation this weekend as they're pretty much locked into being a 4 or 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament and really have little to play for. I think that the most encouraging sign for LSU coming out of yday's game was the fact that they prevailed comfortably despite playing w/o Simmons for the final 15 minutes of the first half (foul trouble). This team has generally struggled outside of Baton Rouge this season, but with their season at stake, I'm expecting to get their best here. Remember only ONE top seed (Chattanooga) has won its conference tourney so far and A&M is only 9-9-1 ATS vs. conference foes this year with an average margin of victory less than seven points per game. This one comes down to the fact that one side has a whole lot more to play for and that side is getting a generous number of points. 8* LSU |
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03-12-16 | Michigan +7.5 v. Purdue | Top | 59-76 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
8* Michigan (1:00 ET): Firmly on the bubble, Michigan did themselves a big favor yday w/ a win over top seed Indiana in the Big 10 quarterfinals as 7.5-pt dogs. The 72-69 win came on a last-second three-pointer and while it had to feel good, by no means is the Wolverines' work done here in Indianapolis. A win here over Purdue, themselves coming off a very impressive win yday, would go a long way for the contingent from Ann Arbor. Because Purdue won in such blowout fashion Friday, 89-58 over Illinois, they come into this rubber match clearly overvalued. The spread is a few points too high as consider the Boilermakers were a 1.5-pt dog in Ann Arbor the last time these teams met, and they lost. Take the points. Anything that could go right, did, for Purdue yday. They shot 58.3 percent to 39.3 for Illinois and were +18 in rebounding differential. They made 13 of 27 three-pointers, highly irregular for a team that averages only eight makes per game from behind the arc. Winning by that kind of margin is largely irregular for the Boilermakers. While they do come into this contest off three straight double digit wins, that's above their season long average margin of victory in Big 10 play of +7.5 PPG. In the two regular season meetings vs. Michigan, they were a little fortunate in that the Wolverines have shot only 37% overall from the field. I expect the Maize and Blue to shoot significantly better here as how long can Purdue sustain their current level of 3-pt FG% defense (29.3 percent)? Playing with one or less days rest, Michigan is 3-0 ATS this season. They are 5-1 ATS in neutral site games as well. They're the more motivated side here as they probably need a win here and maybe even tomorrow as well. Note that despite shooting only 5 of 20 from three-point range last month vs. Purdue, the Wolverines still won. Obviously, it's been two very narrow wins so far in this tournament, one in overtime and one at the buzzer. But it's unusual for Michigan to be getting this many points. They covered taking 9.5 at Maryland last month and then obviously won outright yday. Those are the only two times since the beginning of February they've taken this many points. 8* Michigan |
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03-11-16 | Memphis v. Tulsa -4 | Top | 89-67 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
10* Tulsa (9:00 ET): This will be the fourth quarterfinal of the day in the American Conference Tourney and I think we have a great value here w/ a Tulsa team trying to play its way into the Big Dance. Not only is Memphis a team I've exclusively played AGAINST this season (the Tigers are 11-16 ATS in all games), but this is a revenge spot for the favored Golden Hurricane, who lost outright as 2.5-point road favorites in Memphis in the second to last regular season game. Getting to now lay a near identical number at a neutral setting is a blessing as far as I'm concerned as there's no denying which team has been better throughout the campaign. Tulsa is not only 48-9 SU as a favorite the last three seasons, but also 37-19 ATS vs. conference foes. Lay the small number here. The Golden Hurricane concluded its regular season w/ an 84-74 win over South Florida. Though they failed to cover there as lofty 16.5-pt favorites, it was a nice bounce back nevertheless from the loss to Memphis. Coming into the weekend, Tulsa is squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble as the venerable Joe Lunardi currently has them among the first four teams OUT of the field of 68. That means a loss here is something they simply can't afford and honestly they probably have to at least get to the finals. Having played just one game in the last 12 days, and that was six days ago, they should be more than ready for this game. A 5-2 ATS record when seeking to revenge a road loss is also encouraging. The Memphis program has clearly regressed under HC Josh Pastner, so I'm not surprised at all to see them come in as the six seed here. The Tigers have had to play twice since upsetting Tulsa on Feb 28, first losing at Temple (72-62) and then beating up on a bad East Carolina team, 83-53. That loss to Temple is significant because it dropped the Tigers to 1-6 ATS coming off a conference win this season. They are just 3-8 SU outside of Memphis this year due to giving up over 80 points per game. They shot nearly 54% vs. Tulsa the first time, which won't be repeated here, nor will Tulsa's 7 for 25 shooting from three-point range. Honestly, I am anticipating a blowout in this one. 10* Tulsa |
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03-11-16 | Pistons +4.5 v. Hornets | Top | 103-118 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
10* Detroit (7:05 ET): Yes, I fully remember going against the Pistons two nights ago while pointing out their striking home vs. road dichotomy. They "got one over on me," beating the Mavs 102-96 as 2.5-point dogs. Remember though, in Detroit's previous game, I was on them and they rolled to a 20-point victory (at home) against previously red-hot Portland. While B2B minor upsets might normally give me pause, it is the Hornets that should be more worried about regression here as they've now won five in a row while averaging over 116 PPG, which is well above their season average. I've questioned Charlotte as a favorite before (won taking the points against them Monday) and will do so again here. Take the points. The Hornets have hardly "had it rough" of late w/ recent games against the likes of Phoenix, Philadelphia, Minnesota and New Orleans. I do anticipate that this line will continue to get bet up, so you may want to wait a little bit before actually placing your wager. It has been six seasons since the Hornets had a six-game win streak, which is what they are gunning for here. Without question, Kemba Walker has been the catalyst during this win streak w/ four straight 30+ games. But how long can one player carry his team offensively? Again, the Hornets have been facing some really bad defensive teams of late. While their ATS record as a favorite is almost identical their record as an underdog, I think we're starting to reach a point where this team is becoming overvalued. After all, a 9-3 ATS run is sure to start regressing to the mean, sooner rather than later, right? The Pistons don't necessarily shoot the ball well, but they already have more wins than they did at the end of last season and SVG clearly has them trending in the right direction. With Chicago's loss last night, they are now in the eighth place position by themselves in the Eastern Conference. Certainly, they don't want to concede that right back. Unlike Charlotte, I'm not sure we've reached "peak Pistons" yet. In what shapes up as a pretty even battle on paper, taking the points is the way to go. 10* Detroit |
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03-11-16 | Bowling Green +9 v. Akron | Top | 66-80 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
8* Bowling Green (6:30 ET): We've already seen a number of top seeds drop in the mid-major conferences, so I see no reason why the MAC's #1 team, Akron, would be exempt from suffering the same fate. The Zips had all sorts of trouble with Eastern Michigan yday, winning only 65-63 as a five-point choice. Curiously, they are now a bigger favorite in the next round against Bowling Green, who has pulled two upsets to get here. Granted, the Falcons are a low-seed in this tournament and did lose by 35 at Akron in late February. But I don't see the justification for them getting more points here in Cleveland than they did at Akron. After ending the regular season on a 1-10 ATS slide, the underdog Falcons clearly have some "momentum" here. Take the points. Akron's big win over BG two weeks ago was actually nothing new. They've taken the last six meetings, covering the spread in five of them w/ one push. But one thing I've noticed about these Zips is that they seem to have a bit of a "glass jaw" away from home. While they were a perfect 15-0 SU at home this year, they are only 10-7 SU on the road/in neutral site games and yday saw them down by as many as 12 in the second half vs. an Eastern Michigan team that simply is not that great. Sure, Akron fans can point to the fact that their team shot only 33.9 percent overall, including 9 of 33 from three-point range, and still win. But it's not as if the Zips have been regularly shooting the ball well anyway. One would have to go all the way back to the final game of January to find the last time they were above 50% from the field. As for Bowling Green, they've now shot better than 50% in three consecutive games in what is turning into a bit of a Cinderella run. I'll go back to their pointspread woes (1-10 L11) at the end of the regular season as a sign that the Falcons were due to turn things around here in the MAC Tournament. First, they knocked off Kent State in a "true" road game Wednesday, then yday it was a three-point win over Central Michigan here in Cleveland. Both games featured second half comebacks. It's "that time of year" and you just get the feeling that BG has a bit of "lady luck" on its shoulders, so I anticipate them staying within this number. 8* Bowling Green |
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03-10-16 | Cavs -9.5 v. Lakers | Top | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (10:35 ET): Since Feb 1, the Lakers are 10-5 ATS, which has to be a bit of a surprise. Of course, the biggest surprise of them all took place Sunday as they stunned the Warriors w/ a 112-95 win as 17.5-point home dogs. I called for a letdown the following game, but it didn't happen as they ended up defeating Orlando 107-98 as a 3.5-point dog here at home. But I'll look for the run to end here with a visit from Cleveland, who picked up a much needed win last night in Sacramento and a strong finish to that game should carry over here. My own personal power ratings suggest the Cavs should be about a 13-point favorite in this one, so there's definitely a little value. Lay the points. All season long, I've been hammering home that road teams playing the second game of a back to back are typically undervalued. That appears to be the case w/ Cleveland here, even though this is certainly a significant number of points to be laying on the road. While it was only a nine-point win in Cleveland for the Cavs the last time these two met, note that they did lead by 19 entering the fourth quarter and that was after losing Kevin Love to an injury in the first half. After a relatively sluggish first half, the Cavs busted loose for 66 points in the second half last night against Sacramento. I find it interesting that while the Kings may be the worst team in the league in terms of points allowed per game, the Lakers rank last in defensive efficiency, so what I'm saying here is to expect another big offensive game from LeBron and company here. The hype for this game will be centered around the fact that it is the final meeting between James and Kobe Bryant. The latter did not play Tuesday, but given the circumstance here, I expect he will suit up and take the court. This will, of course, only hamper the Lakers offense. Almost entirely due to Kobe, the Lakers are the worst shooting team in the entire league. Note that this is just the third time all year that the Lakers have been off B2B wins. The first two instances saw them have to play the Warriors and Spurs, so not surprisingly, there hasn't been a single three-game win streak all season. 10* Cleveland |
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03-10-16 | Creighton +3 v. Seton Hall | Top | 73-81 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
10* Creighton (9:30 ET): A team like Seton Hall, who is all but assured of making the NCAA Tournament at this point, can be somewhat of a dangerous proposition in this instance as they are laying points to a team playing w/ "nothing to lose." Now the Pirates have been a strong bet for much of this year as they finished the regular season 19-9 against the spread. But they were only 9-7 ATS when favored, meaning much of the real "damage" was done as an underdog, so I like the value we're getting here w/ Creighton in the spoiler role. These teams exchanged road wins during the regular season w/ Seton Hall last winning in Omaha, by 10 as 5.5-point dogs, back on January 30th. This is a 'pick em type contest from where I sit, so I'll take the points. Now Creighton's regular season did not end all that well as they've lost four of their last five. But their last three defeats have all been by five points or less. They put up 93 points in the regular season finale, but that was not enough against Xavier, who scored 98. I fully expect the defense to "tighten up" here, but as for the offense remember it was just three games ago that they hit the century mark, albeit against St. John's. Though you might not be able to discern this from simply looking at the number of points allowed per game (72.8), this was actually the Blue Jays' best defensive season (in terms of efficiency) under HC McDermott as they ranked in the top 50 nationally and fourth overall in the Big East. Speaking of defense, Seton Hall is allowing the opposition to shoot just 26.4% from three-point range! Can that really continue? That will be tough. Yes, I did take the Pirates about ten days ago when they beat Xavier outright. But that took place on their home floor. Something I find interesting is that despite Seton Hall being 4.5 games better overall than Creighton, the two teams PPG differential is essentially dead even. Again, that tells me that we have more of a pick 'em type contest than one that Seton Hall should be favored. Do not be surprised if Seton Hall's 67% free throw shooting comes back to bite them here. 10* Creighton |
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03-10-16 | Butler -3.5 v. Providence | Top | 60-74 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
8* Butler (2:30): This is a 4 vs. 5 (seed) matchup in the Big East Tournament with the latter favored despite having lost to the former twice during the regular season. That should tell you something right there. But those two wins now seem like "forever ago" and the bottom line is that a Providence team few believed in to begin with has faded badly down the stretch. Sure, the Friars concluded their regular season with three straight victories. But two of those came at the expense of DePaul and St. John's, the two worst teams in the league. Prior to that, they had dropped five of six. Meanwhile, Butler has won seven of nine (8-1 ATS) w/ the only losses coming at the hands of Xavier and Villanova (top two in the Big East). We've got teams trending in opposite directions as they head toward the NCAA Tournament. Lay the points. It's not like either regular season matchup was a blowout either. The first saw Butler, at home, actually enjoy a 36-25 halftime advantage. But they shot only 3 of 17 from three-point range and would go on to lose 81-73 as a 7.5-point favorite. That's a 56-point second half for the Friars, if you're keeping score at home, and at the time they were 13-1 straight up. Three weeks later, it was a three-point Providence win at home as they again rallied late after trailing for much of the second half. Butler is now just 1-5 SU/ATS vs. Providence since becoming conference foes, but I'll go ahead and back the double revenge angle as I simply cannot see Providence beating them for a third time this season. As I mentioned earlier, Butler is clearly playing a lot better right now. They closed the regular season w/ a 21-point win at home over Marquette. They led by 19 at halftime, shot 56 percent from the floor and got 36 bench points. While that sounds like a call for regression is in order, note this team has averaged 90 PPG its last three and averages 81.3 PPG. Over the last 11 games, they've averaged 79.5 PPG w/ 42 percent shooting from three-point range. The key for them seems to be getting to 80 pts as they are 15-0 SU when they do. Something interesting is that Providence only shoots 41.7% from the floor. I don't see them keeping pace here. 8* Butler |
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03-10-16 | Duke -2 v. Notre Dame | Top | 79-84 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
8* Duke (2:30 ET): This seems like a bit of a curious number, no? You have Duke, favored, despite playing yday and not covering against a NC State team that was just beaten by Notre Dame, the opponent here. That seemed curious to me at first, but judging by power rankings this line actually seems too low. Duke did lose outright, at home, to the Fighting Irish in the regular season. But they were 8.5-point favorites in that one and if you factor out the home court edge, they still should be -4.5 in this instance. Now, you could make the argument that the loss coupled with playing w/ no rest should make the line even lower, but the bottom line is I expect the Blue Devils (#3 in offensive efficiency) to "circle the wagons" here and surprise. Lay the short number. Notre Dame is similar to Duke in the sense that they rank very high in offensive efficiency (#4), but are not good defensively (#189!). That defensive rating makes Duke (#113) look positively stout by comparison! Duke not only has revenge from the regular season, but also LY's ACC Tournament. Overall, they've dropped four of five to the Irish, so I expect this game to carry a ton of weight with the Blue Devil players. While their lack of depth could ultimately become a problem, the bottom line is they played extraordinarily well yday. They shot better than 52 percent from the floor and turned the ball over only four times. I suppose you could point to the fact they still barely won, but I don't anticipate the Irish being as hot here as NC State was yesterday. Notre Dame's offensive numbers had curtailed in losses to both Florida State and Miami, but like Duke, they had their way w/ NC State, scoring 89 pts on 50 percent shooting. The previous five games all saw them fail to break 72 points, their season average away from South Bend, and those were against some of the ACC's lesser teams. Duke had not shot well for three straight games before yday and while their defensive numbers may not have impressed vs. the Wolfpack, the bottom line is that the Blue Devils are 11-3 ATS the L14 times they've allowed 80 or more points the last game, including 4-1 this season. 8* Duke |
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03-10-16 | Arkansas v. Florida -2.5 | Top | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
10* Florida (1:00 ET): A pretty poor finish to the regular season has the Gators' NCAA Tourney hopes pretty much on life support and given the events of the last week (lots of upsets), it may very well take winning the SEC Tournament to get in. I'm not sure if they'll be able to accomplish the feat w/ the likes of Kentucky and Texas A&M in their way, but the fact is they are a dangerous 8-seed here in Nashville. I'd probably rank only four teams ahead of them in the SEC power structure and one of those is certainly not Arkansas, their first round opponent, whom they've already beaten by four in Gainesville earlier in the year. While Florida didn't cover the spread there (-7.5), the number is considerably lower here and I have the Gators advancing w/ relative ease. Arkansas was able to hang tough in that first meeting by making 10 of 21 three-point attempts. Meanwhile, Florida was just 5 of 19. I suppose that's not too far off from overall season averages, but still I wouldn't expect a repeat of that discrepancy. It's also important to note that the Razorbacks have just three wins outside of Fayatteville this season and are 0-3 in neutral site games. Their regular season did not end well as they lost at home to South Carolina, 76-61 as 6.5-point favorites. Unlike Florida, the Hogs have no realistic shot at making the NCAA Tournament (barring an improbable SEC Tournament win), so their motivation may not be as high this afternoon. I admit that Florida is only 2-8 ATS its last 10 games (4-6 straight up). But three of those SU losses were by six points or less. Unlike Arkansas, the Gators regular season ended well w/ an 82-72 win over Missouri. The potential loss of center John Egbunu (injured in practice Tuesday) does hurt - literally and figuratively - but overall Florida is the far better team here due to its defense, which holds opponents to 68.7 points per game. It was disappointing that they scored 87 pts in the first meeting w/ Arkansas and still didn't cover. If they are anywhere near that point total again today, it will be an easy trip to the pay window. 10* Florida |
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03-09-16 | Arizona State +3 v. Oregon State | Top | 66-75 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
10* Arizona State (11:30 ET): I found this line to be rather curious. Though it was in Tempe, ASU destroyed Oregon State 86-68 (as five-point favorites) earlier this season. Even factoring out home court advantage, it really makes little sense then that the Sun Devils wouldn't be favored here. Yes, they did not end the regular season well. That's part of it. The other half of the equation is that Oregon State is considered to be a "bubble team," which as you probably know tends to overvalue this time of year. So too does the Beavers' 86-82 win at UCLA in the regular season finale. But before that, OSU had lost three of five and one of their two wins came by a single point. I look for the Sun Devils to dash the Beavers' NCAA Tournament dreams. Earlier, I said that Arizona State didn't finish the regular season particularly well. They, in fact, ended February w/ four straight double digit losses. But I then backed them at home vs. Stanford last Thursday as they picked up a really nice 74-64 win over Stanford (led by as many as 21). Then, in the regular season finale they gave a good Cal team all it could handle and actually led at the half, not to mention led by eight halfway through the second half. It still was an easy cover as six-point dogs. One thing that is key here for the Sun Devils, and we saw this in the win vs. Stanford, is rebounding. They outrebounded Oregon State 39-24 in the regular season meeting and as a result shot nearly 60% from the field. OSU is not a particularly good rebounding team. The Beavers have Gary Payton II, but they won't have second leading scorer Tres Tinkle here. That's a big loss. Stephen Thompson Jr was able to deliver a career-high in points in the upset victory over UCLA last week, but can that be counted upon again? Probably not. Thanks to a 55-point second half, that win over UCLA was OSU's highest scoring effort in Pac 12 play all season. Thus, we are all but guaranteed to see a regression tonight and don't think this team won't be feeling the pressure of what is perceived as a "must win" spot. Take the points. 10* Arizona State |
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03-09-16 | Knicks +1 v. Suns | Top | 128-97 | Win | 100 | 20 h 47 m | Show |
10* New York (9:05 ET): There's been a rather dramatic swing in the line here as the Knicks actually opened as three-point favorites and now look to be GETTING as many as three! Considering the opponent (Phoenix!), that seems odd, even though New York clearly has its own set of issues right now. The Knicks lost again last night, 110-94 in Denver, even though Carmelo Anthony came through w/ 30 points. Other than that, it simply wasn't a very good night for the team and overall they are just 3-12 SU over the last 15 games. I did have them Saturday night though, in an upset of Detroit (at home), where it seemed as if the money was stacked up against them there as well. I just can't believe the Suns would be bet to the role of favoritism given their own sorry state of affairs. Take the points. Part of what's driving this line towards the Suns is that they are actually off B2B upsets of Orlando and Memphis where they covered the spread by a shocking 50 point margin. They were 12.5-point dogs in a 102-84 win at Orlando and 9.5-pt dogs (opened much higher) in a 109-100 win at Memphis. They've now won three of five following a disastrous 13-game losing streak, but by no means do they deserve to be favored in this spot. Consider that they won just three games total from Christmas to the end of February! This is their first time being favored since an outright loss to Brooklyn (here at home) on February 25th and before that one would have to go all the way back to January 3rd to find the last time they were in the chalk role. They lost outright there as well, to the Lakers. The Knicks have just four wins over their last 21 games, but one of them did come against Phoenix, 102-84 as seven-point chalk. As that number illustrates, even on the road, they should still be the favorite here. They were only a one-point dog in Denver last night, so this totally seems like an overreaction (by the public, not the linesmakers). Before winning its last two games, the Suns have been routinely getting blown out and in fact only teams (Lakers, Sixers) have a worse scoring margin per 100 possessions in the entire league. 10* New York |
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03-09-16 | Pistons v. Mavs -2 | Top | 102-96 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:35 ET): This shapes up as almost a "must-win" for the Mavericks. Granted, "must win" doesn't mean "will win," but nevertheless I do believe the conditions are favorable here to a Dallas win and cover. As we've been through before with Detroit (tonight's opponent), their home-road dichotomy is striking. They were quite kind to me the last two games, first by losing outright in New York Saturday night (102-89, -7), then by bouncing back w/ a win Sunday at home over Portland (123-103 as a slight dog). It should not come as a shock to you to find which game was on the road and which was at home as the team's YTD record now stands at 13-20 SU away and 19-11 SU home (ATS records similar in both regards). Therefore, I'll lay the small number w/ a Dallas team desperate to avoid a fourth straight loss. In the interest of full disclosure, I was actually debating taking the Mavs Monday night. I'm glad that I didn't because they ended up falling apart in the second half and lost 109-90 to the Clippers. That came on the heels of an excruciating 116-114 defeat (overtime) the night before in Denver where they blew a four-point lead in the final 10 seconds of regulation. As I mentioned earlier, the team has lost three in a row and that has them a tenuous seventh in the West and really it's four teams competing for those last three playoff spots. However, the good news here is that at no point during this season have the Mavs lost four in a row and they are 5-1 ATS when off three straight losses (2-0 this year). Coming off a double-digit defeat, they are 11-4 SU/10-4-1 ATS this season. Detroit typically does not shoot the ball well, but on Sunday they were at 52.4% from the field in the rout of Portland. Again though, that was at home. Their previous home game before that saw them shoot 57% in a minor upset of Toronto. But in between were two road games (both losses) where they were below 40% from the field. For the season, their FG% is at just 42.4 on the road and "true" shooting numbers are really bad, due to their awful free throw percentage. In fact, only the Lakers are worse in terms of "true" shooting percentage. 10* Dallas |
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03-09-16 | St. Louis +4 v. George Mason | Top | 83-78 | Win | 100 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (6:30 ET): This is a first round matchup in the Atlantic 10 Tournament. These teams split during the regular season, each winning on the other's home floor. Those results seem rather odd considering St. Louis had just two other road wins (all season!) and George Mason had just three! As far as recent form goes, SLU's isn't very good as they ended the regular season on a four-game losing streak and went just 2-9 SU L11, though one of those wins did come at the expense of George Mason. As for the Patriots, they ended their regular season w/ an upset (as 6-pt dogs) of Richmond, at home. I suspect that is the reason they are getting "a little love" here, but as my regular clients already know, I often like to fade teams coming off an outright win such as that. Take the points. This shapes up as a pretty even matchup to me. It's not as if the venue (Brooklyn) gives any kind of advantage to George Mason, so I'm not sure why they'd be laying points here, other than the fact that they are the higher seed (12 vs. 13). Back to the idea of fading the Patriots off their upset win; it turns out that they are 0-4 ATS this season off a conference win, not to mention 2-11 ATS their L13 in that situation. This is admittedly a strong rebounding team, but their 55 boards vs. Richmond set a season-high and thus is unlikely to be duplicated here. One thing this team does not do well is shoot the ball; their field goal percentage is at only 40.7% for the year, including 29.1% from three-point range. Perhaps most telling of all is the fact GMU is only 2-4 SU and ATS as a favorite this year. That includes not only a home loss to St. Louis, but also another outright setback at lowly LaSalle, the only two times they were favored against an A-10 opponent. As for St. Louis, they will need to turnaround their recent fortune in neutral court games (0-7 ATS L7!). That trend seems like an outlier, if nothing else, to me and should revert back to the mean. Something to consider is that George Mason allowed 76.8 PPG in conference play, so the Billikens could possibly be in for a big offensive night, just like the last time they faced the Patriots. Consider they won at George Mason despite making only FOUR free throws the entire game. That number clearly should go up here and it's likely another "upset." 8* St. Louis |
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03-08-16 | Magic -3 v. Lakers | Top | 98-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
10* Orlando (10:35 ET): This is a pretty short number to lay going against the sorry Lakers. Yes, I know they just pulled off the most astounding upset of this NBA season, beating the Warriors here at home Sunday. But that's clearly played a large role in the line "being what it is here" and what it is, is too short. The Magic did play last night (and lost to the Warriors), but showed me something in not getting blown out when they easily could have (trailed by 15 in the second half). The game before saw them suffer quite the embarrassing upset (102-84 at home to Phoenix!), so this figures to be a game that Scott Skiles' team will be desperate to win. The Lakers will be in clear letdown mode after beating Golden State. Since the start of February, the Lakers are actually a respectable 9-5 ATS. But they've won just twice since the All-Star Break and w/o a big number attached to them, I feel they are impossible to back. Even after beating the Warriors, they barely are ahead of the 76ers in terms of being outscored per 100 possessions (-10.4 to Philly's -10.5). My own personal power ratings indicate that Orlando should be about a 5.5-pt favorite in this spot. The Lakers defense remains absolutely atrocious as they concede 107 points per game, which is the third most in the league and they also happen to be dead last in terms of efficiency. I'm conflicted here on what the status of Kobe Bryant (questionable) means as despite being the team's leading scorer, he's actually more harm than help at this point. Something to keep in mind is that the Warriors missed 26 of 30 three-point attempts against the Lakers. (They were 16 of 35 against Orlando). I think LA rookie point guard D'Angelo Russell summed it up best when he said yesterday, "I really don't know how we came together," in regards to beating Golden State. Orlando was just 5 for 21 last night from three-point range, a department that they should definitely improve upon here against one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Note that as a favorite, the Magic have been pretty strong, going 16-6 SU and 13-9 ATS. Also, the Lakers are 0-3 SU/ATS following a double digit victory this year. 10* Orlando |
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03-08-16 | Gonzaga -2 v. St. Mary's | Top | 85-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
8* Gonzaga (9:00 ET): This is it for Gonzaga. A program that is generally considered a "lock" for the NCAA Tournament, they probably must win tonight as it seems as if their chances of gaining an at-large bid are slim to none. Luckily, the WCC Tournament happens to be an event that they have owned. The Zags are now 38-4 SU in all WCC Tourney games (since '99) following last night's 88-84 win over BYU. Only three times in the last 16 years has Gonzaga not won this tournament. This year is a little different as they did not come in as the top seed, but here they have double revenge against the team that did (St. Mary's) and I like Mark Few's team to capture the rubber match and move on to the Big Dance as per usual. Lay the points. Despite being the top seed and sweeping Gonzaga in the regular season, St. Mary's deserves to be the underdog here. It's certainly been an interesting season for the Gaels. They opened a perfect 12-0 against the spread, not to mention 14-1 straight up. Two of their four losses this season came to Pepperdine, but they just gained revenge for that w/ an 81-66 win and cover (were -7.5) last night. However, they've clearly fallen off at the betting window down the stretch, covering just five of their last 15 games. As an underdog, which they've been just three times, they are 1-2 SU/2-1 ATS. Quite simply, St. Mary's schedule this year hasn't been particularly challenging. They played two-thirds of their games at home and other than trips to Gonzaga and Cal, there was nothing even remotely challenging on paper. This is the first time since 1995 that Gonzaga was swept in the regular season by St. Mary's. Overall, they are 40-10 SU the L50 meetings. Normally, the "shoe is on the other foot" when these teams meet in the WCC Tourney Final and it is the Gaels needing the win. Both regular season meetings were close w/ the 'Zags losing by a combined eight points. They are the better team w/ the two best players - Sabonis & Wiltjer - on the court tonight. Both teams shoot the ball really well. But it is St. Mary's that is more likely to regress from yday's performance (57.4%!) and the key is how well the 'Zags defend the three-point line (#1 in the country at 29%!). 8* Gonzaga |
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03-08-16 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Wagner -9.5 | Top | 87-79 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
8* Wagner (7:00 ET): The Northeast Conference Tournament actually got underway all the way back on Wednesday and here we are in the Finals w/ the two top teams meeting for the right to go to the Big Dance. Top-seeded Wagner has the home court advantage, though that didn't mean much in the regular season w/ them and Fairleigh Dickinson exchanging victories on the others floor. More recently, it was Wagner winning by 20 in Teaneck. Earlier in February, FDU managed to win by three here, becoming one of just three road teams to beat Wagner at home. I do not see history repeating itself tonight as the top-seeded Seahawks are clear favorites here and for good reason as they held the rest of the NEC to just 62.5 points per game. Lay the number. Wagner comes into this Tournament Final having won seven straight. In five of those wins, they've held their opponent under 60 points. The two times that they did not, they "cranked up" the offense, scoring 94 and 81 points respectively. The former performance was against FDU. The latter came in Saturday's semifinal against Long Island where they were 7.5-pt favorites and covered by winning 81-65. Interestingly, the Seahawks actually trailed at the half and were tied w/ just 16:30 to go in the game. Therefore, you might find it curious that Wagner is actually laying more points to the #2 seed than they were to the #6 seed. But consider that Fairleigh Dickinson has actually been outscored over the course of the season! I expect Wagner's defense to be a lot better here than it was it Saturday's semi, not to mention the two regular season meetings vs. FDU. I say that knowing full well that the underdog Knights come in as the highest scoring team in the NEC. They managed to shoot 46.8% from the floor and score 74 pts the last time these two teams met. And they still lost by 20 - at home! In the first meeting, FDU scored even more points (82, which matched a season high in pts allowed by Wagner) and that was on this floor. But note that game went into overtime and Wagner actually led by six with under two minutes to go. The Seahawks then uncharacteristically allowed three consecutive three pointers, including the GW w/ just 1.4 seconds remaining. Both of FDU's wins in this tournament have been close games that could have gone either way. I see them getting blown out here. 8* Wagner |
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03-07-16 | Kings v. Pelicans -1 | Top | 112-115 | Win | 100 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
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03-07-16 | Wolves +9.5 v. Hornets | Top | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (7:05 ET): Charlotte is a team that I've had ranked fairly high in my own personal power ratings for much of the year. Since January 22nd, they have the East's third best SU record (14-5) and that includes wins in nine of their last 11 games (won 4 straight). But in this price range, I have to "back off" some. Yes, they did just record recent blowouts over both Phoenix and Philadelphia, but I'm still not convinced that this team is capable of those kind of performances on a consistent basis. They're much better suited as an underdog, in my estimation, as this year has seen them go just 1-3 against the spread as a home fave of -6.5 to -9 (4-8 ATS L3 years). While the Hornets have been scoring a lot recently, the T'wolves actually have been the more efficient of the two offenses this season and I'm going to take them plus the points here. Minnesota is off its own big win, 132-118 over Brooklyn, as 9.5-point favorites Saturday night. They shot the ball at an astounding 68.4% clip, which is not just the highest mark in franchise history, but also the highest we've seen in any NBA game since 1998! Now, clearly, we're going to have to deal with a decline in that department here. But still, they have topped 100 pts in 11 of the past 13 games, a stretch that has seen them go a more than respectable 6-7 straight up. For whatever reason, this team tends to be much better on the road, at least from a pointspread perspective as they are 17-14 ATS. One reason for that is they tend to get a lot of points as the road team. Such is the case here. Charlotte has beaten Minnesota three straight times, including a 104-95 win back in November. But the T'wolves were w/o both Andrew Wiggins and Ricky Rubio in that one. Wiggins, along with Karl-Anthony Towns and Zach LaVine have formed a nice little nucleus for a team still in rebuild mode. They key here for Minnesota is going to be defense and thankfully Charlotte is only 10-11 straight up this year after topping 105 pts in its previous game. I just get the sense that the Hornets are a little overvalued in this spot as we've already seen peak play from them over the past week or so. 8* Minnesota |