Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-05-16 | Nebraska +15.5 v. Iowa | Top | 66-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
10* Nebraska (9:00 ET): Coming off a tremendous week that saw them "upset" both Michigan State (were actually favored against the Spartans) and Purdue, it's probably a good idea to "sell high" right now on Iowa as they are laying a big number against a Nebraska team that will arrive in Iowa City likely to give the Hawkeyes its best shot. The Cornhuskers also remember LY's matchup w/ the Hawkeyes as they got drubbed 74-46 in Lincoln as only a one-point home dog. They could not "hit water from a boat" in that one as they trailed 42-16 at half and for the game made only 32.7% of their shots, including 2 of 18 three-point attempts. Things haven't gone particularly well recently for Nebraska either, but I expect a close game nonetheless. Take the points. The effort Iowa turned in exactly seven days ago vs. Michigan State may have been their finest to date under HC Fran McCaffery (I was on them!). But remember that MSU was w/o Denzel Valentine there and HC Tom Izzo was dealing with his father having passed away 24 hours earlier. So, needless to say, I was an advantageous spot for the Hawkeyes there. Then, four days later they went to West Lafayette and upset Purdue, 70-63 as nine-point pups. But as impressive as that seems, be aware that they actually trailed the Boilermakers by as many as 19 points before scoring 50 in the second half. But it was the defense, which held the Boilermakers to just eight second half field goals that won them that game. Tip your cap to that 2H performance, but it will be extremely hard to duplicate moving forward. This isn't a great spot for Iowa by any means. They have an eight-day break following this game, followed by the rematch w/ Michigan State. So there could be a bit of a "look ahead" factor in play tonight. Also, while in retrospect, it seems pretty ridiculous that the Hawkeyes weren't ranked, now they seem a little overvalued. Remember that this has been quite the inconsistent bunch under McCaffery. While they made the huge rally against Purdue, they also blew a big lead and lost at Iowa State. Nebraska is not on that level, but since losing at Villanova on November 17th, they've lost only two times by more than 10 points. 10* Nebraska |
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01-05-16 | South Carolina v. Auburn +6 | Top | 81-69 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
8* Auburn (7:00 ET): With Oklahoma losing last night (what a game!), there are only two unbeaten teams left in all of College Basketball. Interestingly, I don't think that anyone would consider either to be among the nation's true elite. One, SMU, is actually ineligible for the postseason due to sanctions. The other is South Carolina, who I'll be playing against here. The Gamecocks are 13-0 SU (8-1-1 ATS) and coming off an 86-76 win over Memphis this past weekend. HC Frank Martin has done a tremendous job in building up this program, but as they get set to open SEC play tonight, I feel they are ripe to be upset. This is just their second "true" road game of the year and the first outside of the state of South Carolina. Take the points. Tonight's opponent, Auburn, has already begun conference play w/ an 83-77 win here at home over Tennessee. The Tigers have their own high-profile coach, Bruce Pearl, and on Saturday they beat his former school thanks to some red-hot second half shooting (59 percent!). The team had previously dropped three of four, including two straight, before that win. They can absolutely score here at home (88.5 PPG!) and have won the L3 regular season meetings vs. South Carolina. That includes a 71-68 win (+2.5) last season despite shooting only 36.5% from the field. While Pearl is dealing w/ some injuries this season, Marshall transfer Kareem Canty has picked up the slack, leading the team in scoring w/ 19.3 PPG. South Carolina had a lot of help from the opposition on Saturday as Memphis sent them to the free throw line an astounding 63 times, a school record. That was what aided them the most in pulling away late as the game was actually tied w/ nine minutes to go. Not to accuse the referees of anything, but it would seem highly unlikely that the Gamecocks will benefit from such an abundance of FT attempts here. A total of five Memphis players fouled out. South Carolina is being asked to lay more points here than they were at Clemson when they ended up prevailing by only six points. They were 3-0 at the Paradise Jam in the Virgin Islands, but beating DePaul, Hofstra and Tulsa isn't that impressive. This will be their toughest test to date. 8* Auburn |
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01-04-16 | Hornets +9.5 v. Warriors | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (10:35 ET): I haven't been afraid to "step out" against Golden State recently, first doing so X-Mas Day when they hosted Cleveland and then again at Dallas (w/o Steph Currey) when they were crushed 114-91. Curry may not play again tonight and I'll take the chance that he won't (though this play IS still valid even if he does) as the Warriors host the MVP's hometown team, Charlotte. Truth be told, if my new power rankings came out today, the defending champs would no longer be #1 (San Antonio would). I now rate the Spurs as being a full-point better on a neutral floor. Regression was somewhat inevitable for the Warriors after that ridiculous start and after watching them struggle to get by lowly Denver the other night (needed OT), I'm going to grab the points here. Charlotte is a team in desperate need of a win, or at least a strong performance. Banged up, the team has lost three in a row and six of its last eight to fall out of the top eight in the Eastern Conference. They've been a little fortunate in the sense that they've played 20 of their 33 games so far at home. But the home court edge certainly didn't help them on Saturday when they were held to only 90 points (on 34.5% shooting) in a 19-point loss to Oklahoma City. Still, the Hornets are 5-1 ATS this season when coming off a double-digit loss and stand to shoot better here than they did the other night. With Curry mostly on the sidelines, the Warriors have struggled a bit defensively, giving up 114, 110 and 108 points their last three games. After missing two games, the loss to Dallas and a win over Houston, Curry returned to the lineup Saturday vs. Denver, but reinjured his calf after just 14 minutes of play and thus is listed as questionable for tonight. I know that this being his hometown team, he'll want to play (his dad, Dell, will be in the building as he is a Hornets color commentator). But I wouldn't risk it, especially w/ a three-game road trip beginning tomorrow night. Again, even if Curry does play, go against the Warriors here as the line will certainly be bet up (so you may want to wait a little before placing your actual bet here). The Hornets have revenge here for a 17-point home loss last month. 8* Charlotte |
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01-04-16 | Oklahoma +6.5 v. Kansas | Top | 106-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma (9:00 ET): This could actually end up being a battle of #1 vs. #1 as Oklahoma is #2 in the Coaches Poll and Kansas #2 in the AP. With Michigan State losing last week, it stands to reason that both would ascend to the top spot in respective polls when they come out later today. Regardless, this is an outstanding matchup. While Kansas is currently perceived to be the top team in the country, Oklahoma is still unbeaten and all things considered, I believe this line to be too high. Yes, the game takes place in Lawrence where OU has not won in over a decade. Also, as you know, I've been playing AGAINST those few remaining unbeatens over the last month w/ great success (like the aforementioned Mich State against Iowa LW). But the bottom line is this game rates as a toss-up to me, so taking the points is the way to go. Recent results, on the both sides, have helped to drive this number up. Oklahoma is off a close call on Saturday where they beat Iowa State 87-83 as a 6.5-point choice themselves. But I think playing a tough opponent like that will actually serve them well here. The Sooners did trail for much of the second half, but then won the game despite ISU shooting the ball at a ridiculous 56.2% clip over the final 20 minutes. That's pretty impressive. Yet the market has turned on them, likely due to three consecutive ATS defeats, including another close call at Hawaii right before X-Mas. But considering the Sooners' experience and the fact they are averaging 87.0 points per game getting points seems like a nice luxury to have. Kansas, meanwhile, destroyed Baylor 102-74 on Saturday for their fifth consecutive ATS win. So, their stock is really high in the public's eyes right now. However, since losing to Michigan State on November 17th (by six), the Jayhawks haven't really been tested. They are 8-2 ATS when favored this season and averaging slightly more points per game than OU. But I can't help but think this is an overlay. The Jayhawks' last four opponents have all shot 39.0 percent or worse from the field, which I don't envision the Sooners doing here. OU will have the best player on the floor Monday night (Buddy Hield) and remember they destroyed Villanova on a neutral court earlier this year. 8* Oklahoma |
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01-04-16 | Kings v. Thunder -10.5 | Top | 116-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): I like this matchup a lot for the Thunder. Sure, it's a big number and they're up against a team that just scored 142 points in its last game. But after witnessing what happened to Phoenix last night, any result involving them should certainly be taken w/ a "grain of salt" at this point. Thus, expect a sharp decline from Sacramento on the offensive end here after shooting a preposterous 60.9 percent from the field Saturday against the Suns. This is also a road game for the Kings and that means trouble as they are an awful 4-11 SU away from home while giving up a whopping 110.6 points per game. Defense figures to be an issue for them in this one as OKC is second in the league in terms of offensive efficiency. Lay the points. Over its L5 games, the Thunder are averaging 113.1 PPG and here they should have no trouble scoring against a Sacramento side that has allowed 110+ in three consecutive contests. Only Golden State tops OKC's average of 1.10 points per possession. This is a big number and I understand that the Thunder have failed to deliver each of the last four times they've been double digit chalk. But they did just come through w/ an impressive road win over a pretty good Charlotte team on Saturday. There, they proved they could play some defense as well, limiting the Hornets to only 90 points on 34.5 percent shooting, including 6 of 22 from three-point range. They are 16-4 SU at home this season and Sacramento hasn't won here in their last 14 tries. Now these two teams did play a close game earlier this season here in OKC w/ the Thunder escaping w/ a 98-95 win as 11.5-pt chalk. But, as you can probably ascertain, the Thunder shot the ball unusually poorly in that one at just 40.7 percent overall including 6 for 22 from three-point range. The Kings are unlikely to "get away" with that again, given what we are accustomed to seeing from them defensively. Note that during the 14-game losing streak here, the average margin of defeat has been by 12.3 points per game and last time they did trail by as many as 17 before rallying to make it close. The Thunder, unlike the Kings, can play some defense and they will help here in what should be a blowout victory. 8* Oklahoma City |
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01-04-16 | West Virginia v. TCU +10 | Top | 95-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
10* TCU (7:00 ET): TCU obviously treated me very well over the weekend w/ the football team providing a thrilling, *10* Game of the Year winner over Oregon in the Alamo Bowl. Now, let's see what the basketball program can do. The Horned Frogs are catching West Virginia playing a third consecutive road game (in less than a week) and I feel the 19th ranked (will move up when new rankings come out later today) Mountaineers are ripe to be upset in this spot. They were lucky to escape Manhattan with a win Saturday, needing double overtime to beat Kansas State, 87-83. WVU still only has the one loss (neutral court vs. Virginia), but as I've written about previously I'm concerned over their field goal defense as their opponents' shooting percentages are unsustainable. Take the points. TCU is off a pretty ugly loss to Oklahoma State (on the road) by 21 points. For the second straight road game, the Horned Frogs shot the ball terribly. They finished the game vs. OSU at only 30 percent overall, including a horrible 1 for 17 from three-point range. That sounds a lot like previous West Virginia opponents as the Mounties still sport the top 3-pt FG% defense in the country (23.7%!) and overall teams are shooting just 41.5% against them. This sounds like a "perfect storm" for the favorite, but I go back to the concept of "unsustainability." TCU is highly unlikely to shoot the ball as poorly here (back at home) while moving forward I'm sure we're going to see teams make more shots against WVU, particularly from three-point range. Note that TCU actually only trailed by two at halftime against Oklahoma State. Their starting five combined to score only 20 points, so again, improvement is "in the cards" tonight. The Horned Frogs play much better defense at home (63.9 PPG allowed) and were able to stay within five points of (still) unbeaten SMU here in Ft. Worth. Meanwhile, WVU didn't do its usual good job on the boards or forcing turnovers Saturday at Kansas State, a game they trailed much of the way. Their own three-point shooting has been pretty atrocious (22.1% outside of Morgantown) and this will probably end up as a fairly low-scoring affair where points are at a premium. That makes taking the 'dog the way to go. 10* TCU |
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01-03-16 | Suns +1.5 v. Lakers | Top | 77-97 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (9:35 ET): The Suns have become somewhat of an embarrassment, losing eight straight, including 142-119 yday in Sacramento. HC Jeff Hornacek's job appears to be in major jeopardy right now at a time the team isn't necessarily healthy (PG Eric Bledsoe out for season). But most embarrassing of all is the fact they check in as a virtual "Pick em" against the lousy Lakers Sunday night. Going by my own power ratings, there's only one team in the league that the Lakers should be favored against and that's the one they played their last time out, Philadelphia. I feel that the line for this game is a massive overreaction to recent events and that the embattled Suns are actually a solid value in this spot. Take them. After beating the Sixers 93-84 Friday night, the Lakers have now won consecutive games for the first time all season (beat Boston as 14-pt dogs on NYE). What are the chances they make it three in a row? Not good, in my opinion. Kobe Bryant is listed as questionable (shoulder) here after missing the Sixers game. Without Kobe, the Lakers turned in arguably their finest effort on the defensive end of the floor all season against Philly, holding them to just 36.9 percent shooting. But take that number w/ a grain of salt as we know that the Sixers are dead last in the league in terms of offensive efficiency. The Lakers are 1-5 ATS L3 seasons after allowing 85 pts or less. Phoenix, for all their issues, can still score as they average a solid 102.1 PPG. They whipped LA, 120-101, in the season's first meeting, improving them to 8-1 SU (6-2-1 ATS) their last nine games vs. the Lakers. Now, it is obvious that the Suns need to start showing some pride on the defensive end of the floor. Yesterday was a disaster in every sense of the word as they allowed the most points in a non-overtime game since 1990. Sacramento shot better than 60 percent (!) for the game. But Tyson Chandler (best defensive player) getting ejected in the third quarter had something to do w/ that as the Kings would go on to score an astounding 83 points in the second half. After suffering such an embarrassing loss, I believe that Phoenix will show a little bit of pride here and they are undervalued being that they are in the second night of a B2B (played early yday though). 10* Phoenix |
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01-03-16 | Wake Forest v. Louisville -13 | Top | 57-65 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
8* Louisville (8:00 ET): There's a couple of reasons why this number has been bet down ever so slightly. One is that Louisville's Trey Lewis (transfer from Cleveland State) is expected to miss tonight's game. Lewis, the team's second leading scorer, will be missed but it is not as if his absence cannot be overcome. The other factor that has some leaning towards the dog here is that Wake Forest is coming off an outright upset of Ben Simmons and LSU, 77-71 as seven-point dogs. They also played Xavier (at the time still unbeaten) very tough the game before that. But despite all that, I'm still expecting the Cardinals and their embattled head coach Rick Pitino to pull out a double-digit win in this spot. Lay the points. We haven't seen Louisville since the day after Christmas when they played rival Kentucky. That final score of 75-73 really burned me as I was on UK laying 2.5 points. The Cardinals trailed by as many as 16 points in the second half before making a furious rally. While I was critical of Louisville's early season schedule in my analysis of that game, the fact is their only two losses this season have come against Michigan State and Kentucky and were by a combined six points. They have had a ton of time to get over the loss to Kentucky here (full week off!). This team ranks #1 in the country in scoring differential (+27.7 points per game) thanks to a defense that is allowing just 57.4 PPG (2nd best in the country). They are also #1 in rebounding differential (+14.5 per game) and have already shot better than 50 percent in nine different games, which is one more time than they did all of last season. Wake Forest, while much improved last year, is simply not in the same class as the teams that beat Louisville. Danny Manning's Demon Deacons have also been a little fortunate in that they are 7-0 SU in games decided by six points or less. Last year saw them lose by 11 (as 12.5-pt dogs) at home to Louisville. Even factoring in Wake's improvement, this line should be several points higher given the change in venue. The Deacons are allowing a pretty woeful 78.1 PPG and haven't given up fewer than 70 in any game all season. I look for them to struggle offensively here and that will allow the home favorite to pull away late. 8* Louisville |
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01-02-16 | San Diego +20 v. St. Mary's | Top | 46-79 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 59 m | Show |
8* San Diego (10:00 ET): Needless to say, St. Mary's has been a major surprise so far this year. Not just because the Gaels are a perfect 10-0 against the spread (NCAA best), but that they've been winning so comfortably despite losing LY's best player, Brad Waldow, who was thought to be somewhat irreplaceable. Still though, I am expecting this run of theirs to "flatline" a little bit and after picking up a big home win over BYU on New Year's Eve (got me), I see SMC struggling to cover what is a huge number against San Diego. The underdog Toreros are off loss (by two at Pacific), which dropped them to 5-7 SU on the season, but typically play the Gaels tough and I expect this to be another hard-fought WCC matchup. Take the points. The Gaels are the only team in the country to have played more than four lined games and not suffer a single ATS defeat. The only teams close to them in the overall ATS standings are IUPUI-Ft Wayne (9-1) and Purdue (8-2). History and common sense are both against St. Mary's now as there is simply no way they will continue to cover every game. The spreads will only continue to increase and in fact what we have here is the largest opening spread for any SMC game all season. New Year's Eve against BYU saw the Gaels catch a break, at least early, as the Cougars opened the game a woeful 2 for 14 from the field. At halftime, they were at only 28 percent. Yet, it took St. Mary's own 56.4% shooting and a late run to cover the spread. The Gaels have also been fortunate that most of their recent opponents have shot the ball exceedingly bad. Even before BYU, three of the last four teams they faced were below 29 percent for the game! At the same time, they themselves have been at 56 percent or better in four of the last six games. This insane discrepancy has to stop! Of course, San Diego only shot 34.4% from the field in its last game, while allowing Pacific to shoot 54.9 percent, but again they lost by only two (scored 50 pts in the second half!). Overall, the Toreros have covered the spread in four of their last five games, including an outright upset of San Diego State as 16.5-pt dogs on December 6th. Their head coach, Lamont Smith, is a former assistant here at SMC, so you know that this game will mean a lot to him and thus his players as well. 8* San Diego |
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01-02-16 | LSU +10 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 90-82 | Win | 100 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
10* LSU (9:00 ET): One of College Basketball's biggest disappointments thus far has to reside in Baton Rouge where despite having the most "pro-ready" talent in the country, LSU is only 3-7 against the spread and an even more perplexing 7-5 straight up. Ben Simmons' (aka the "next LeBron") talents are being wasted right now as the team is off an outright loss at home (as 7-pt favorites) to Wake Forest earlier in the week and right now it is far from guaranteed that the Tigers would even make the NCAA Tournament. What a shame that would be. However, what "catches my eye" here is that tonight marks the first real time the Bayou Bengals are clearly the underdogs going into a game this season. I think that that also means for the first time, they are a good value. I'm taking the points in this SEC opener. Vanderbilt had dropped four of six games prior to an easy win over Western Michigan here at home on Tuesday. Those losses were all against good teams, including Kansas and Purdue, and for the most part were close. But still, I don't think the Commies deserve to be laying this many points. They did lose outright as nine-point home favorites to Dayton last month and while they're 6-0 SU/ATS otherwise in the chalk role, many of the other teams that have come calling to Nashville were clearly overmatched. LSU won't be and in fact the Tigers have beaten Vandy three straight times, the last two coming here at Memorial Gym. Those wins were both close and now w/ Simmons in the fold, another close game is what I expect in this spot. Simmons took only eight shots in the loss to Wake Forest, which is ridiculous. He still scored 21 points mind you and is averaging 19.3 points as well as 13 rebounds per game. I'd actually like to see him start to become a little more "selfish" moving forward while still maintaining his current average of 5.5 assists per game. Leading his team in virtually every offensive category, it's obvious who will be the best player on the court Saturday night. The key here will be LSU getting their defense (allowing 76.2 PPG) on track. But at the same time, Vandy has enjoyed far too good of fortune when it comes to three-point shooting this year as they are making 40.2 percent of their attempts while opponents are at only 27.1 percent. That large discrepancy is due to start regressing to the mean. 10* LSU |
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01-02-16 | Bucks v. Wolves -1 | Top | 95-85 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): The T'wolves have been just horrible at home this season, winning only 5 of 17 games and the results at the betting window have been even worse w/ a 3-13-1 ATS mark. But they did win their last time here, 94-80 over a pretty decent Utah squad (as four-point chalk) and curiously the asking price isn't nearly as high tonight as they welcome in a Milwaukee team that's been bad all season away from home (4-15 SU), even though they did win at Indiana (as six-point pups) New Year's Eve. Now Minnesota did lose on NYE (115-90 at Detroit), but that doesn't justify this line IMO as the T'wolves look like an excellent value going up against a team that allows 106.3 points per game away from home. Lay the number. The Bucks couldn't miss two nights ago in Indiana, finishing the game w/ a 58.4% overall shooting percentage. The last time they shot that well actually wasn't that long ago as on December 23rd, they shot 60%, albeit against Philadelphia. But of note here is the fact the following game saw Milwaukee shoot only 42 percent in a blowout (111-90) loss to Toronto. The team would go on to lose its next two games as well, both on the road, before beating the Pacers. That win over Indiana was rare not just because it was on the road, but because it was the first time in nine games this season that they won despite allowing a shooting percentage of 50% or better. They caught the Pacers off an overtime loss the night prior and 20 turnovers turned into 35 Bucks' points. All five Milwaukee starters scored in double figures and totaled 95 points. I would not expect a repeat performance here. Despite winning their last game, the Bucks are still one of the worst teams in the league. Only three teams (Brooklyn, Lakers, Philadelphia) have a worse scoring differential and the team ranks 28th in terms of defensive efficiency. They still allowed 116 points to the Pacers and that was just their third win in 20 games this season when allowing 100+ points. Minnesota does average triple digits (100.1 PPG) even though they have failed to top 100 in six consecutive games. With double revenge from LY and a disappointing home record thus far, it's "just due" time tonight for the T'wolves, who should be favored by more here. 8* Minnesota |
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01-02-16 | Magic +9 v. Cavs | Top | 79-104 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:35 ET): I often state that teams playing in the second of back to back games are undervalued, especially when playing on the road. Such is the case here w/ Orlando, who is coming off a disappointing 103-91 loss yday in Washington. But the Magic remain the most profitable team to bet on in the Eastern Conference (at 65.6%, 21-11-1 ATS for the year) and are a good value tonight getting this many points against a Cleveland team still trying to integrate Kyrie Irving back into the lineup. The Cavs have not been a good team to bet on this year as they are only 12-17-1 at the betting window. When these teams first met this season, Orlando was in a bad spot as they had just returned home after a five-game West Coast swing. Now, the proverbial shoe is "on the other foot." Take the points. I haven't played on or against Cleveland since X-Mas Day when they opened a tough four-game in five-day stretch w/ a 89-83 loss (+7) at Golden State. Had they not shot the ball so poorly (31.6% overall!), they could have won the NBA Finals rematch. After getting routed in a bad spot (the next night) in Portland, the Cavs concluded their road trip w/ B2B wins over Denver and Phoenix, but neither win was particular impressive (both by 6 pts or less) as those are two bad teams. Defense is bailing out LeBron and company right now as they are actually one of the bottom two teams in the league in points scored per game since December 13th! That's played a significant role in the team going just 9-16 ATS when favored this season, including 1-4 at home when laying between 6.5 and 9 points. Returning home after a long trip, particularly one that coincided w/ the holidays, is always a tough spot and I expect Cleveland to struggle here. Incredibly, the Cavs are 9-0 SU and ATS the L9 meetings with Orlando (2-0 this year). In both meetings this season, Cleveland has shot the ball remarkably well. In fact the last time saw them shoot a season-best 56.9 percent from the floor in a 111-76 rout. The Magic's two worst defensive performances of the season (in terms of field goal percentage allowed) have come against the Cavs, but despite that and that they failed to snap a long losing streak (10 games) to another foe last night (Washington), I expect them to break through w/ at least a cover tonight. It was a tie game w/ the Wizards last night entering the 4th quarter, so the fact they ended up losing by 12 points is a tad bit misleading. The Magic are 4-1 ATS playing in the second of B2B games and only once this season have they gone three or more consecutive games w/o covering (off B2B ATS losses here). 10* Orlando |
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01-01-16 | Utah v. Stanford +4 | Top | 68-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
8* Stanford (9:00 ET): We're into conference play now in College Hoops and in the Pac 12 we have just two teams ranked in both Top 25 polls. One is obviously conference favorite Arizona, who is in the top 10, and the other is Utah. But despite having a win over Duke (on a neutral floor), I'm not entirely sold on the Runnin' Utes ranking in the polls (21st AP, 22nd Coaches). That win over the Blue Devils was the first game Coach K's team played w/o Amile Jefferson and the game still went to overtime despite Duke shooting only 29.9 percent from the field. The Utes have been blown out twice this year, first by Miami and then by Wichita State and tonight marks their first "true" road game of the season. Take the points. Stanford is only 7-4 SU coming into tonight, but the teams they've lost to are all very good. An early season three-game losing streak came at the hands of SMU, St. Mary's and Villanova. They also lost by only two to Texas here in Palo Alto on December 19th. Since that time, they've bounced back w/ B2B lopsided wins against overmatched foes. While perhaps not even considered a "second-tier" Pac 12 team entering conference play, I anticipate the Cardinal giving the Utes plenty of problems in tonight's matchup. They average 78.1 PPG at home and are led by sophomore Dorian Pickens, who is averaging 19.5 PPG the L4 games thanks to a 15 of 28 mark from behind the arc. This is also a double revenge spot for Stanford, who didn't get to host Utah LY, losing to them on the road and at a neutral setting (Pac 12 Tournament) by a combined 40 points. Recent history shows that Utah typically struggles on the road. They did go 5-4 SU away from home last season in conference play, which is by far their best effort in four seasons as the previous three saw them go a combined 3-24! Again, this is the team's first "true" road game of the year, though they did play Wichita State in the Shockers' own holiday tournament and the result there was a 17-point loss. The Utes also struggled their last time out, despite facing a NAIA opponent (College of Idaho), as they actually trailed 16-2 right out of the gate. They have NEVER won here in Palo Alto since joining the conference. 8* Stanford |
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01-01-16 | Mavs v. Heat -3 | Top | 82-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
10* Miami (7:30 ET): The Heat ended 2015 on a bit of a downer as they lost B2B games, outright, to Brooklyn and Memphis. The latter came in overtime and saw the team still only score 90 points for the game, despite a 30-point 1st quarter! It was also just their second loss to a Western Conference foe this season (9-2 SU) as I'll once again mention the shift in the balance of power that's going on between the NBA's two conferences, at least in terms of depth. Back at home on New Year's Day, I look for Miami to bounce back and I like them laying only a short number against a Dallas club that's probably feeling pretty good about itself after routing Golden State (no Steph Curry) two nights ago. I'm on the favorite here. The Mavs arrive in South Beach having won four straight, but the last three have all come at home. I was on them Wednesday as they took advantage of the Curry-less Warriors, winning 114-91. It all went right for Dallas there and needless to say I think that Golden State was a little "shell-shocked" over not having the MVP. The Mavs are one of just five Western Conference teams to have a positive point differential this season, but on the road they struggle, giving up 103.9 points per game. Their last three road games have resulted in two losses to Eastern Conference teams comparable to Miami, those being Indiana & Toronto, plus only a one-point win (OT) over lowly Brooklyn. This shapes us as a proverbial letdown spot. One clear advantage that Miami has coming into this matchup is on the defensive end of the floor. They allow only 95.5 PPG, which is the third best average in the league, trailing only San Antonio and Cleveland. Therefore, I expect an across the board decline for the Mavericks here from their last game when they shot better than 51% overall, including 14 for 27 from three-point range. Dallas has been scoring well above their season average the L4 games, so they are due for a little "market correction" regardless. Lost during this win streak of theirs is the fact PG Deron Williams remains out. JJ Barea cannot possibly continue shooting the ball as well as he has (63% from 3-pt range) these L4 games. The Heat have lost three straight games only one time all season. 10* Miami |
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12-31-15 | BYU +5.5 v. St. Mary's | Top | 74-85 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 1 m | Show |
8* BYU (11:00 ET): St. Mary's (9-0 ATS) remains unbeaten at the betting window, though in their lone SU loss of the season (at Cal), the final score did end up falling close to the number. Regardless, I'm targeting the Gaels for an ATS setback, and potential outright loss, as they host BYU here. This is the conference opener for underdog BYU, who has not played since a Holiday Tournament in Hawaii that concluded on X-Mas Day. After opening w/ a tough, three-point loss to Harvard out on the Island, the Cougars responded w/ strong B2B wins and covers over New Mexico and Northern Iowa. While 0-3 SU in "true" road games to this point, none of BYU's losses this season have been blowouts and I see them as being poised for an upset here. Take the points. St. Mary's has already played two WCC games and blew out both San Francisco and Santa Clara. However, an out of conference matchup w/ Utah Valley State (non-board team) I don't think did them any favors coming into tonight's showdown. That game took place just three days ago and the Gaels won by only 15, so had it been lined, the result would have been an ATS loss. The team shot only 42.4 percent from the field, which actually matched a season-low (tying their percentage from the loss to Cal), but they were bailed out yet again by another opponent shooting horrifically as in this case Utah Valley State was just 27.4 percent from the floor. That was actually the third time in the last four games that SMC's opponent was below 29 percent shooting overall! BYU comes in shooting 47.7% for the season (50%+ each of the L4 games), so I'd say the Gaels are in for a rude awakening tonight. BYU's shooting isn't likely to go down as long as the ball finds its way into the hands of Chase Fischer, who scored 41 points in the win over New Mexico and then 26 more the following night vs. Northern Iowa. While St. Mary's does appear to have a pretty significant edge defensively tonight, you do have to adjust for the quality of opposition each team has faced. The Gaels ridiculous 53.8% shooting is unlikely to continue moving forward and note that there have been only two games all season where BYU failed to scored 75 points. That makes the Cougars a great underdog play IMO and note they beat Utah Valley State by significantly more (31 points) in their season opener. 8* BYU |
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12-31-15 | Clippers +3 v. Pelicans | Top | 95-89 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (8:05 ET): The Clippers look to complete a perfect 5-0 road trip tonight w/ a visit to the Big Easy and given that they were able to dispatch of a good Hornets team last night, I don't see them struggling against a significantly worse Pelicans squad. Again, we can take advantage of some pretty significant line value here due to a team playing in the second game of a back to back. It's pretty ridiculous that we are able to even get points in this matchup considering how awful New Orleans has been this season. They are arguably the worst defensive team in the league to this point (inexcusable w/ Anthony Davis on the roster) and are being outscored by roughly five points per game. Take the points. The Clippers did not cover the first game on this road trip, but that was due to laying a big number (on X-Mas night) against the Lakers (still won by 10). Since then, it's been three straight wins and covers. Last night, and this is w/o Blake Griffin mind you, they were able to put up 122 points against a Charlotte team that is no slouch defensively. LA never trailed and got 26 points from Austin Rivers of all people. They shouldn't expect that kind of contribution here, but nevertheless scoring shouldn't be a concern against a Pelicans side that is giving up an average of 109 points per game here at home. Earlier this season, the Clips torched the Pelicans for 111 pts in a 21-point victory at home. It probably won't be that easy this time around, but then again it doesn't need to be. New Orleans would seem to have an advantage considering they haven't played in two days, but when you take their season into account, it becomes rather obvious that it would be foolish to lay points in this spot. They lost 104-89 in Orlando their last time out and are just 2-7 ATS following a double digit loss. The Pelicans have been more respectable at home (7-6 SU), at least on the offensive end, but w/ Davis getting so little help this season, it's difficult to like this team. Especially considering a 4-10 SU record vs. winning teams. 10* LA Clippers |
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12-31-15 | Bucks v. Pacers -6 | Top | 120-116 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
8* Indiana (6:05 ET): When it comes to home vs. road, these teams have experienced very different results in this price range and it certainly applies here. Milwaukee has gone just 1-5 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points while Indiana is 6-1 ATS at home in the same range. The Bucks are in fact just 3-15 SU overall on the road, so this line definitely looks low to me even though the Pacers are coming off a tough overtime loss last night, 102-100 to Chicago. But they did cover in the Windy City, improving their ATS record to 6-1 vs. division opponents. That includes a 123-86 whitewashing of Milwaukee last month here in the Hoosier State. Defensively, the Pacers are better at home and the Bucks worse on the road. Lay the points. December hasn't gone nearly as well as November did for Indiana, but then again the team went 11-2 SU/ATS last month and that record was going to be very hard to duplicate. They have covered the spread each of their last three times out, including a 93-87 win over what has been a pretty hot Atlanta team here at home. Last night, the team did not shoot well (38.1 FG%) and fell into a 10-pt halftime hole. Yet, they were still able to rally and force OT, only losing due to a last-second Jimmy Butler tip-in. I often make the case that teams playing in the second game of a back to back are undervalued due to the perceived disadvantage and that is the case here. Milwaukee is really bad on the road and really bad defensively. That makes tonight a tough spot for them. This is a team that is allowing 105.8 PPG on the road and is dead last (among Eastern Conference teams) in terms of efficiency on that end of the floor. If that's not bad enough, the Bucks are awful at guarding the three-point line w/ opponents hitting better than 40 percent against them from distance. In the previous meeting between these two, the Pacers made 15 three-pointers and that's no surprise as they are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the league this year. Overall, their shooting numbers have been down in recent games (Paul George in particular), so a visit from the Bucks seems to be just what "the doctor ordered." 8* Indiana |
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12-31-15 | Xavier v. Villanova -4.5 | Top | 64-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
8* Villanova (12:00 ET): While College Football obviously is in the headlines New Year's Eve, this is an outstanding matchup on the hardcourt with the (perceived) two top teams from the Big East matched up. Both Xavier (currently) and Villanova have also been ranked in the top ten nationally. I know that early in the season I was playing against Jay Wright's Wildcats with some regularity (as their 53-24 three-year ATS record is certainly due to regress). But after Nova dropped a couple of games, I'm off that bandwagon and instead focused on the fact this is a team that's due to start shooting better from three-point range. At home, in a big game, I look for the Wildcats to come alive from three-point range this afternoon. Lay the points. Xavier is on fire right now as they are one of just four remaining unbeaten teams in the country. They have covered eight straight games, most recently beating Wake Forest on the road, 78-70 as seven-point chalk. However, that score is a little bit misleading. Note that the Musketeers actually trailed by as many as 18 points in the first half in that one (by 15 at the half) before ridiculously hot-shooting in the second half (59 percent!) propelled them to victory. While some in the Xavier camp might write that off as a "wake up call," I feel it's more "warning sign." Plus, Villanova is an opponent they have historically struggled against. Xavier is 0-5 SU/ATS the L2 seasons vs. them, losing all three meetings last year by double digits. You might question me raising an eyebrow over Villanova's shooting as they are actually hitting 60% percent on two-point field goal attempts, which would seem to indicate regression, not improvement, is forthcoming. But at the same time, the Wildcats are connecting on only 31% from three-point range and infamously went 4 for 32 in their first loss of the season (vs. Oklahoma). The good news though is that their opponents are shooting below 30 percent from three-point range against them here at home, where they are 7-0 straight up. Over the last three seasons, 'Nova is a sterling 28-8 ATS on their home floor. As long as they don't killed on the boards, they'll end Xavier's unbeaten run. 8* Villanova |
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12-30-15 | Warriors v. Mavs +7 | Top | 91-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:35 ET): Right now, we don't know if Steph Curry is playing or not. But regardless, I'm going against Golden State here as they are going to be asked to lay a fairly big number here in Dallas. Obviously, if Curry doesn't play, it would be a huge plus. He is still being bothered by a calf injury which limited him X-Mas Day against Cleveland, a game the Warriors probably should have lost. The fact that interim HC Luke Walton has come out and stated that Curry may not play tomorrow either (team is in Houston) has me thinking that things don't look too good here. Curry made five of his team's 20 (!) three-pointers and had a triple double in Monday's 19-point home victory over Sacramento. I shouldn't have to tell you that potentially not having the reigning MVP would be a major loss. Again though, I'm taking the points either way. With or without Curry, the Mavericks can be a challenging matchup for the Warriors. Dallas is actually averaging more three point attempts per game this month than is Golden State and they're making them to boot. In fact, their average of 12.1 makes per game (since December 6th) leads the league during that time and they are shooting at a near 40 percent clip as well. The Mavs are averaging a healthy 113.3 PPG during a three-game win streak and this will be just the second time this season that the oddsmakers will be affording them more than five points at home. The first came last month (against the Clippers) and they won that game outright, 118-108. As an underdog this year, Dallas is 9-7 ATS w/ six outright victories. Though you may not be able to tell from the final score, Golden State really struggled defensively against Sacramento. They allowed 61 points in the first half as the Kings were 13 of 31 from three-point range (for the game) and don't think for a second that the Mavs won't be using a similar "blueprint" here. Eventually, this team (meaning the Warriors) is going to start slipping up. It just seems unreasonable that they can continue to cover at around a 65% ATS clip given the pointspreads they consistently face on a nightly basis. In fact, they are just 3-2 ATS this year as a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. They are allowing 106.9 PPG on the road this season. 10* Dallas |
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12-30-15 | Wizards v. Raptors -5.5 | Top | 91-94 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:35 ET): After letting one "get away" from them two nights ago in Chicago, I expect a strong effort out of the Raptors tonight at home. Once again, they'll be facing a team that had their number last season. As you know, Washington surprisingly swept Toronto right out of the playoffs last season. The Raptors did gain a small measure of revenge w/ an 84-82 win in D.C. last month, but failed to cover as 3.5-point favorites. However, using that line as a barometer, it is a bit surprising to see Toronto favored by so little here at home. The Wizards have clearly regressed this season, particularly on the defensive end of the floor (where they give up 104.8 points per game). Lay the points. Washington also lost its last home, 108-91 at home to the Clippers. That loss may not sound that bad until you realize the Clippers were w/o Blake Griffin. Yes, the Wiz are dealing w/ injuries of their own right now, most notably SG Bradley Beal's leg. But you shouldn't be losing by 17 points at home, depleted or not. Beal's absence will certainly be felt in this game as he averaged 20.8 PPG in LY's playoff series. The team is also w/o reserves Nene, Drew Gooden and Gary Neal. But the main problem is still defense and the faster pace the team has played at this year has failed to produce positive results. Currently, the Wizards are being outscored by 5.1 PPG on the road despite actually being 7-7 straight up. But this is a team that's lost ten times by double digits already this season. Toronto had been sound defensively until giving up 104 points to the Bulls Monday night. That was a game where they wasted a 32-23 lead after one quarter, allowing Chicago to score 55 points after halftime. But, they are still allowing only 96.6 PPG for the season, giving them a big edge on that end of the floor over Washington. Offensively, the Raptors are tied for fourth in the league in offensive efficiency. Most important of all though is that the team is now fully healthy w/ Jonas Valanciunas back in the lineup. Both Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan have played very well of late and I feel that this line simply isn't high enough given the respective health of the two teams coming into tonight. 8* Toronto |
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12-30-15 | Seton Hall +3.5 v. Marquette | Top | 83-63 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
8* Seton Hall (7:00 ET): Big East play gets underway here as we have two, under-the-radar teams squaring off in the conference opener. Both Seton Hall and Marquette check in w/ 10-2 SU records and neither is phony as the former has wins over Ole Miss (neutral site) and Wichita State while the latter won at Wisconsin earlier this month. In fact, after starting 1-2 SU, Marquette has now won nine in a row, though save for that road win over Wisconsin, the competition hasn't been all that stellar. The Golden Eagles did leave their home state one time, going to New York, where they picked up wins over LSU and Arizona State. But that was just prior to Thanksgiving and since then, they haven't played anyone of substance. I look for them to be dealt a rude awakening here. Take the points. Seton Hall's last loss came on December 2nd at George Washington (who beat Virginia remember) by eight points. Since then, they've won five straight, four of those victories coming by double digits. The Pirates are led by Isaiah Whitehead, who is tops on the team in both scoring (14.8 PPG) and assists (4.1 APG). He had 10 assists in the team's 66-49 win over South Florida last Tuesday, a game in which they never trailed. There is also Angel Delgado, who leads all Big East players w/ 10.1 rebounds per game. He and Khadeen Carrington are the big reasons why this team gets so many points in the paint (36.8 per game) and SH also has posted double-digit second chance points in 10 consecutive games. Speaking of high percentage, the Pirates do an excellent job at getting to the free throw line as they've made nearly the same number of FT's that their opponents have attempted! Defensively, this team is solid as well (63.1 PPG allowed). Marquette has generally owned this Big East rivalry through the years (15-2 SU L17 meetings), but this is clearly one of the better Seton Hall teams that they will have faced during that time. The Pirates did come in and pick up a road win last year (w/o Whitehead), 80-70 as 3.5-pt dogs, but then lost to the Golden Eagles at home and then again in the Big East tournament. So, there's still a bit of revenge in play here for the underdog and note Marquette is just 12-26 ATS its last 38 lined home games. Seton Hall is 21-14 ATS the L3 seasons as an underdog. 8* Seton Hall |
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12-30-15 | West Virginia v. Virginia Tech +7.5 | Top | 88-63 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
10* Virginia Tech (12:00 ET): West Virginia is drawing a lot of attention w/ a 10-1 (SU) start that has them ranked 19th in the country. Their only loss is to another 10-1 team, that being #5 Virginia, back on December 8th (70-54 as 5.5-pt dogs). However, as impressive as Bob Huggins' team has been, particularly on the defensive end, I see some regression in the cards. This is their first "true" road game of the season and the Mountaineers will also be opening Big 12 play w/ B2B roadies. Also, with the defense, they cannot possibly continue to sustain their current percentages. Opponents are making only 40.7% of all field goal attempts against WVU this season, including 22.4% from three-point range (lowest percentage in nation). I'll look for Virginia Tech to shoot well enough Wednesday afternoon to stay within the number. Take the points. Va Tech, like WVU, has not played in over a week. But the Hokies are off a loss here, 79-62 as a 3.5-pt dog on a neutral floor to St. Joe's. That was just their fourth loss, however, and two of the previous three were by three points or less. While they've yet to beat any opponent of substance, I anticipate they'll be "dialed in" for this one. I say that because it's a revenge spot for a 31-point loss last season in Morgantown. That was a game that really got away from the Hokies in the second half as it was only a 33-30 game at halftime. Making only four three-pointers and seven free throws simply wasn't going to get it done for the Hokies there. But sophomore guard Justin Bibbs could be the answer this year. He's among the nation's best from behind the arc at 61.5 percent, including a 7 of 10 effort in the team's last home game. Another key here is that Virginia Tech can defend as well w/ opponents shooting only 39.8 percent against them this season (better FG% defense than WVU!) and 30.3 percent from three-point range here in Blacksburg. Yes, I said that WVU's percentages are due to regress and while the same may hold true for the Hokies, my point here is that with points likely at a premium, taking the dog is the right thing to do in this instance. West Virginia has lost each of its last two visits to Blacksburg. 10* Virginia Tech |
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12-29-15 | Michigan State v. Iowa -3 | Top | 70-83 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
10* Iowa (9:00 ET): This is a tough spot for Michigan State as HC Tom Izzo is dealing with the passing of his father (happened yesterday) and the team is without its best player Denzel Valentine. Still the top ranked team and one of only five remaining unbeatens left in the country, Sparty definitely showed some cracks its last time out (1st game w/o Valentine), a 99-93 win over Oakland that required overtime and saw the team down 13 at halftime. Tonight is their toughest test to date. Iowa can certainly be maddening at times (see blown lead vs. Iowa State), but I look for the Hawkeyes to make good on the fact they are favored in this spot as they are 6-0 SU so far in Iowa City w/ an average margin of victory of 21.8 points per game. As alluded to above, this is not the first time that Iowa has been matched up against a high-profile unbeaten foe. On December 6th, in Ames, they led Iowa State by 14 in the second half. But then the wheels came off and they ended up losing 83-82. Fortunately, they and I were still able to cover as 7.5-point underdogs. The oddsmakers are not affording that kind of cushion here, but then again this is at home. I am well aware of Michigan State's past success here and against the Hawkeyes overall (nine straight wins), plus the fact Izzo is 18-4 ATS his L22 road games. But this year's Iowa team, the Iowa State result aside, has a "different feel" and they are experienced (start four seniors and a junior). They looked very good in last week's 85-63 win over outmanned Tennessee Tech. Michigan State was lucky to beat Oakland last week. They needed every bit of Bryn Forbes' career high 32 points and Eron Harris scored a season-high 27, which was more than double his previous high. Asking either to duplicate those respective performances would be asking too much. This is only MSU's second "true" road game of the season, the first was against a slightly overrated Northeastern squad, who they did beat by 20. But that was w/ Valentine. As an underdog, Izzo's teams are a surprising 4-9 straight up the last three seasons and this is obviously their first time in that role this season. There's no more excuses for Iowa; it's time for them to win a big game. 10* Iowa |
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12-29-15 | Hawks +3 v. Rockets | Top | 121-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (8:05 ET): The Hawks are off a 93-87 loss last night in Indiana, but if you're a regular reader/client, then you know I often feel that teams (particularly road teams) are undervalued in the second game of a back to back. Such is the case here. Atlanta had won six in a row going into yday and had covered the spread in all but one of those victories. The exception came when they were laying double digits to Portland and got "backdoored" (led by as many as 21 in the fourth quarter). Tonight marks the first time they've been an underdog in B2B games since playing both Oklahoma City and San Antonio in a three-day span. After shooting the ball poorly last night, the team should regain its touch here against a disappointing Rockets squad that remains inept defensively. Take the points. Houston actually led the NBA in the ATS standings last season (over 59%), but this year has been a different story as they are just 13-19 ATS overall. They too come in off a loss, theirs coming at New Orleans by a score of 110-108, a game in which they were favored by 1.5 points. Rockets' fans will want to point out that was a tough spot, coming a day after upsetting an X-Mas upset of San Antonio and that the team had gone 4-1 SU/ATS in its last five games. But there's simply been too many poor efforts from this team all season, particularly on the defensive end. They allow 105.0 points per game, which is bottom five in the league. Their record off a SU loss as a favorite is not good (1-8 ATS) and as I've talked about before, there's been somewhat of a shift in the balance of power between the NBA's two conferences. The Rockets have certainly felt it as they're 3-9 ATS vs. the East so far this year. Everyone had Atlanta regressing from last year's shocking 60-win campaign. Yet, even after yday's loss, they are still above .600 and second in the Eastern Conference. They are one of just five teams to have won 20 games to this point. Before getting held to only 87 points last night in Indiana (where they shot only 41.3 percent and committed 22 turnovers), the Hawks had topped 100 every time out during their six-game win streak (averaged 111.5 PPG on 51.2 percent shooting) and that's something that they should certainly be able to do here. Against teams that allow 99+ PPG, the Hawks are 13-3 SU/11-5 ATS this year. They swept the Rockets last season, including a seven-point win here in Houston. 10* Atlanta |
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12-29-15 | SMU v. Tulsa +4.5 | Top | 81-69 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
8* Tulsa (5:00 ET): We're down to only five unbeatens left in College Basketball and certainly the least motivated of the bunch has to be SMU, a team that is ineligible for the postseason due to NCAA sanctions. Really, it's pretty impressive that the Mustangs have been able to keep it together like this, especially with their head coach (Larry Brown) suspended until the L2 games. Then again, the schedule hasn't been particularly daunting w/ only a pair of "true" road games and four non-board opponents. Their "best" win came at Michigan, who we've come to find out is a disappointment. This shapes up as SMU's toughest test to date as host Tulsa has double revenge from a season sweep last year. Take the points. Tulsa may have four losses on its resume, but three of those were by five points or less. They rebounded from a 76-71 loss to Oregon State (where they led the entire first half) by blowing out Northern Arizona 90-55 last Tuesday. Six Golden Hurricane players ended up scoring in double figures in that easy win as the team jumped out to an early 19-0 lead and never looked back. In fact, the didn't allow a point for the first 7:30 of the game! Unlike many of SMU's previous opponents, the Golden Hurricane can definitely score. They average 80.5 PPG here at home and are 7-1 ATS after topping 80 pts in their previous game (3-0 ATS this season). This is a team that's beaten Wichita State and won at Oklahoma State. They've scored exactly 90 points in B2B home games. Tulsa didn't shoot the ball well in either meeting with SMU last season (31.6% from the floor). Considering they are at 48.8% at home this season, I would expect a dramatic improvement tonight. Both games LY were decided by single digits. SMU is also off a close call last week (Brown's 2nd game back) against Colorado where they won 70-66 as 6.5-point chalk. They've enjoyed hot shooting for the most part this season, but didn't make a single three-pointer against the Buffaloes in Las Vegas. They also lost the rebounding battle. In lined games, the Mustangs are only 3-4 ATS and three of their (SU) wins have been by five points or less. Tulsa has covered two of the three games in which they've been an underdog, both times taking the game outright. 8* Tulsa |
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12-28-15 | Raptors +2 v. Bulls | Top | 97-104 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:05 ET): I'm just not sold on the Bulls under Fred Hoiberg. They picked a convenient time (X-Mas Day) to be "at their best" as they never trailed at Oklahoma City and won the game 105-96 as 10-point underdogs. But the following night in Dallas, they quickly reverted back to their mediocre ways w/ a 118-111 loss (were 2.5-pt dogs). That dropped them to 1-4 SU/ATS their last five games overall. They are barely outscoring their opponents this season, so I do not believe they are even owed the courtesy of being favored in this spot against a Toronto team that comes in at a lethal 9-2 ATS when taking points. The Raptors were a nice winner for me Saturday night (111-90 at Milwaukee) and I'll back them again here. Though 11-5 SU at home, Chicago is just 5-11 ATS. Thus, it shouldn't be too surprising to find this underachieving bunch at a money-burning 6-13 vs. the number when favored this season. Only the Lakers, who are 11-20 ATS overall, have been worse at the betting window. Defensively, this team is just not very good right now and the loss of Joakim Noah (out for at least another week) will continue to be felt on that end of the floor. Four of their last five opponents have topped 100 points and it's not even as if Dallas shot the ball lights out on Saturday (46.0 percent from the field). The Bulls got lucky X-Mas Day in that Oklahoma City had its worst offensive showing of the season. Speaking of offense, the Bulls wasted a 53.8% shooting night against Dallas. Considering that matched a season-best (only third time above 50%!), I expect a decline in production there tonight. After all, the Bulls rank 27th in the league in terms of offensive efficiency, one of only four teams to average under one point per possession. (The others are Brooklyn, the Lakers and Philadelphia. Not good company). Toronto had been short-handed for awhile, but tonight looks like the first time we'll see them at full strength in quite some time as Jonas Valanciunas (having a career year) appears likely to return to the lineup. A broken hand kept him out for over a month and during that time both DeMarre Carroll and James Johnson also missed time. In addition to the outstanding record as an underdog, this is a revenge game for the Raptors, who were swept 4-0 in LY's season series with the Bulls. It seems odd that one side would dominate like that when you have two fairly evenly matched teams, so I look for tonight to be Toronto's night. 10* Toronto |
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12-28-15 | Elon v. Duke -22.5 | Top | 66-105 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
10* Duke (8:00 ET): You'd probably have to be a regular reader/client to remember this, but I did play this matchup last season, only that time I took a much bigger number with underdog Elon (+32.5) and covered easily as the final score was only 75-62. It was the third straight time that the Phoenix had covered here at Cameron Indoor, but the circumstances are a little different this year as Duke has had a lot of time off and promises to be in a surly mood after losing in their previous game, 77-75 to Utah (in overtime) as seven-point favorites. Elon has played a good number of "true" road games thus far, but nothing to prepare them for this giant step up in class. I say lay the big number. Duke was also coming off a long break when they faced Elon last year (12 days), but the circumstances were different as they were still unbeaten and coming off an impressive upset of Wisconsin, in Madison. This time around, there's no threat of a letdown. I do understand that being w/o Amile Jefferson is cause for concern, however, I don't think his absence was solely to blame for the loss to Utah. The team shot a woeful 29.9 percent from the field, easily their worst game of the season, and still nearly won on a neutral floor. I really think that result should be taken as somewhat of a positive, all things considered. This is not a deep Blue Devils team, but that's less of an issue here having had more than a full week off. Also, at home, Duke is a perfect 7-0 SU and outscoring opponents by 26.5 points per game. Elon shoots a lot of three-pointers, but doesn't necessarily make them (31.0 percent on the road). They were blown out by Michigan earlier in the season (lost by 22) and this is clearly a much tougher opponent, even w/o Jefferson. Last week, the Phoenix pulled out a win at UNC-Asheville, 86-81, but the bad news there is that they are just 2-12 ATS after giving up 80+ points their previous game. Coach K shouldn't have to worry about foul trouble from Marshall Plumlee (missed most of second half vs. Utah) here and leading scorer Grayson Allen is certainly likely to improve upon his 3 for 18 shooting performance against the Utes. With Elon allowing 77.5 PPG on the road this season, the Blue Devils' offense should have a nice bounce-back performance and the team should win handily. 10* Duke |
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12-26-15 | Pacers v. Wolves +4.5 | Top | 102-88 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): After recording a rare (and do I mean RARE) win eight days ago here at home and then winning at Brooklyn, the T'wolves resumed their losing ways, falling to Boston and San Antonio by double digits. The loss to the Spurs dropped them to a miserable 2-13 ATS at home this season and they've won just four times straight up! This is a team that's gone just 2-10 ATS at the betting window in the month of December, but they've remained competitive (well until the L2 games) as five of those losses have come by six points or fewer. A surprisingly decent start to the season had them somewhat overvalued in the early part of the month, but now more adequately priced, I believe them to be a great value tonight vs. Indiana. Take the points. Last month, these teams played and it ended up being a four-point game in Indiana. That's notable because it was one of the few times Indiana failed to cover in November (went 11-2 ATS) and the line there was -7.5, meaning the number here definitely looks to be inflated. That's somewhat due to Minnesota's struggles here at home. But, for the Pacers, December has not gone as well as November did. They're just 4-8 ATS this month, including four consecutive non-covers and they've lost three in a row in straight up fashion. Though there's certainly been a significant shift in the balance of power between East and West, it's interesting to note that the Pacers are just 2-10 ATS in non-conference games this year (4-8 SU). Another fortunate thing for Minnesota here is that Indiana has dropped five in a row on the road. Four of those have come against Western Conference teams and all but one was decided by double digits. They've also allowed a lot of points in those games, giving up 106+ four times. That's more good news for the T'wolves, who are coming off one of their worst offensive showings of the season (scored season-low 83 points), but that is somewhat excusable as it came against the best defensive team in the league, San Antonio. For Indiana, Paul George has not been feeling well and his game has suffered w/ a 31.6 shooting percentage the L7 games. 8* Minnesota |
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12-26-15 | Raptors -3 v. Bucks | Top | 111-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
10* Toronto (5:05 ET): Neither of these teams had to play on X-Mas, so in that regard it's somewhat of a "fair fight." However, there can be no denying as to who has had the better season to this point between the Raptors & Bucks and thus I'll gladly lay the short number, even on the road. Toronto has already beaten Milwaukee twice this season, both times at home, by scores of 106-87 and 90-83. Since then, the Bucks' offensive numbers have gone up, particularly during a three-game ATS win streak. But consider their wins have come at the expense of Philadelphia and Phoenix, neither of whom is very good (particularly the former). The Raptors also last played on Tuesday, giving them a full extra day to prepare here. After suffering a surprise loss at home to Sacramento on Sunday (were 5.5-pt chalk), Toronto rebounded w/ a win over Dallas, but again failed to cover the spread, this time by just half a point. While the final margin ended up being rather close, take note that the Raptors led that one by as many as 16 at the end of the first quarter. After shooting 37 percent or worse from the field three times in the previous four games, the offensive production they got against the Mavs was certainly a welcome sight. I expect we'll continue to see an uptick in their overall shooting moving forward. DeMar DeRozan has averaged 27.1 PPG his last eight games and it looks like the team will be healthier than it's been in awhile here after only nine players dressed for the Dallas game thanks to this being the most rest they've had between games all season. Milwaukee has been arguably the biggest disappointment in the Eastern Conference to this point as they are six games below .500 and being outscored by over five points per game. They were a playoff team last year, but in "name only" as they still finished w/ a sub-.500 record. Therefore, the fact that so many teams in the Eastern Conference are improved this season has really hurt them. So too has a lack of defense as they're giving up 102 PPG. They are also one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. Not only are the Bucks 1-8 SU their L9 vs. the Raptors, but they have dropped three in a row to them here at home. 10* Toronto |
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12-26-15 | Louisville v. Kentucky -2.5 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -118 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
8* Kentucky (12:00 ET): Ever since John Calipari came to Lexington, UK has owned this high-profile, often-intense, in-state rivalry. Coach Cal's Wildcats are 7-1 SU vs. Louisville, including two wins in the NCAA Tournament. They also won LY's meeting 58-50, on the road, as five-point favorites. Yet, coming into this year, it is UK that desperately needs this game. By their own lofty standards, this has been a "down year" in Lexington as Kentucky has opened 9-2 SU w/ losses in two of the last four games. That includes a seven-point loss to Ohio State (as 10-pt favorites) exactly one week ago. But they haven't lost at Rupp Arena and that's where this game is taking place, so I'll gladly lay the short number in a game UK "has to have." L'ville has played just one "true" road game to this point and it resulted in a loss to #1 Michigan State (71-67 as 5.5-pt dogs). No shame there. However, the rest of the Cardinals' schedule to this point has been somewhat shameful, so take their +22.0 point per game scoring differential w/ a grain of salt. Since losing to Sparty, Rick Pitino's team has hosted the following opponents: Grand Canyon, Eastern Michigan, Kennesaw State, Western Kentucky, Missouri-KC and Utah Valley State. Kentucky has at least played Duke, UCLA and Ohio State. I feel they're more battle-tested to this point and also fresher as L'ville last played on Wednesday. Getting Kentucky in this price range, at home, has been rare to say the least. They are 10-3 ATS as home favorites of three points or less, but only one of those instances occurred in the L3 seasons. Still, you get an idea for the kind of value we're getting here. Consider that under Coach Cal, the Wildcats are 61-1 SU at home against non-conference competition! They've also covered all three times they've played Louisville the L3 years. These teams have experienced very different results at the betting window thus far in 2015 (L'ville 6-2 ATS, UK 3-8), but those respective records are certainly due to start evening out. Though "down" from last season, Kentucky's offensive rebounding and defensive numbers remain strong. Opponents are shooting just 43.2% on two-point attempts against them. At the same time, their own 24.3 shooting percentage on three-pointers at home is due to increase. 8* Kentucky |
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12-25-15 | Cavs +7 v. Warriors | Top | 83-89 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (5:00 ET): This will be the first meeting between these two since last year's NBA Finals, which were of course won by Golden State in six games (after trailing 2-1 in the series). But the Cavaliers team the Warriors will see here is going to be demonstrably different than the one they faced in June. For starters, both Kyrie Irving AND Kevin Love will be on the court. Irving was lost in Game 1 of the NBA Finals and Love didn't play at all. No matter how invincible the Warriors are perceived to be, that's a big deal when examining the previous meeting. Also, in addition to being much better defensively this season, you get the feeling that the Cavs have been pointing to this game all season long. Meanwhile, Golden State has had to deal w/ basically taking every team's best shot, night in and night out. Take the points. Cleveland comes into this game having won six straight. Wednesday's win over the Knicks was less than enthralling, but ended up being the latest in a string of strong defensive efforts. They've held four of the last five opponents below 90 points, certainly an unfair benchmark to expect here, but this simply reinforces my earlier statement that the Cavs are a much improved team defensively this season. Last year, they entered the playoffs ranked 18th in terms of defensive efficiency, essentially disqualifying them from the profile of a typical NBA Champion. So far this year, they rank a far more impressive sixth. While you do have to adjust for pace of play, it is worth noting that Cleveland is giving up 6.8 points per game fewer than Golden State. Being an underdog of this magnitude is almost unprecedented for a LeBron James team. Taking points this year, the Cavs are 2-1 ATS this year, but the one non-cover came w/ LeBron out of the lineup (at Miami). Note that this is a larger spread than all but one of the games from the Finals and that's w/ Irving and Love back in the lineup. That one game was Game 2, the first after the Irving injury, and Cleveland of course won that game outright. This shapes up as Golden State's toughest test of the season so far and eventually their 67 percent ATS record is due to regress. 10* Cleveland |
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12-25-15 | Pelicans v. Heat -5 | Top | 88-94 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
8* Miami (12:00 ET): For two teams that certainly wouldn't classify one another as "rivals," the history of Pelicans vs. Heat is certainly quite fascinating, at least to me. Believe it or not, New Orleans is an eye-popping 39-17 ATS vs. Miami, including a 2-0 sweep last year (Heat were banged up & not as good, Pelicans were seemingly a team "on the rise"). At one point (from 2005-2010), the Pelicans covered an amazing 11 straight times against the Heat! What followed was a 5-0 SU/ATS run by Miami. But that came to a halt in the final year of LeBron being on South Beach and then came LY's sweep. However, as is now quite clear, New Orleans is having a really down year while Miami is in the midst of a resurgence. I'm laying the points here. When it comes to "Christmas Day experience," the Heat are not lacking. They've played almost every year on the Holiday since the NBA first instituted these games, including an upset of Cleveland last year here at home. In fact, that was the franchise's sixth consecutive win on Christmas Day. Meanwhile, one would have to go all the way back to 2008 to find the last time the Pelicans won on XMas day (back in the Chris Paul era). Another key edge for Miami in this one is on the defensive end of the floor. New Orleans currently ranks second to last in the league (only Lakers are worse) in terms of defensive efficiency, giving up 108.3 points per 100 possessions. Miami is top five, giving up nearly 10 points per 100 possessions fewer. They give up nearly 13 points fewer per game than the Pelicans. The Heat are off a home loss Tuesday night, 93-92 to Detroit (as 2.5-pt favorites). That was a game where they led by 16 points after the first quarter. Three pointers decided that game as the Pistons were 15 of 29 from three-point range while the Heat were only 4 of 18. I anticipate a bounce back here. New Orleans is off B2B wins, but those were over injury-riddled Denver and Portland teams. The season-best defensive effort against Portland needs to be taken with a "grain of salt" as the Blazers were w/o Damian Lillard. The Pelicans are 3-13 SU on the road (-8.1 PPG) and 2-7 SU (3-6 ATS) vs. the Eastern Conference. I've previously discussed how the East is now the deeper of the two conferences, so it shouldn't be all that surprising to find the Heat 8-1 SU vs. the West. 8* Miami |
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12-23-15 | St. Mary's v. Santa Clara +10 | Top | 81-59 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 46 m | Show |
8* Santa Clara (11:00 ET): Conference play has already begun out on the West Coast and for St. Mary's, Monday's result at the betting window was the same as it was for every non-conference game. (Note: By betting against the Gaels early, I was able to get a favorable line in their game at Cal. More on that later). That result was a cover as they downed San Francisco by a score of 74-52 as 17.5-point chalk, improving their ATS record to a perfect 8-0 this season. That's the best such mark in the country right now, but one that's certainly due to regress. Consider that currently there's no other team that has played more than three lined games w/o failing to cover. With this being the only the second "true" road game for the Gaels, the first resulting in their only loss this season (at Cal), I view this as a potential slip up. Take the points. The opponent here is Santa Clara, who beat St. Mary's on this floor last season, 71-70 as seven-point dogs. This year, they're getting even more points to "work with," thanks to what's been a very bizarre up and down season for them. The Broncos have not had much luck in close games so far, going 1-6 SU when the final margin is six points or less. That includes B2B losses by a combined four points. Both were on the road and Monday's 73-72 loss at Pacific (WCC opener) was tough as it came in overtime. While the Broncos did cover (were 4.5-pt dogs), they were obviously hoping for "more," especially considering they held a six-point halftime lead. This is a team that's due to start shooting the ball better as a 40.5 percent YTD field goal percentage is really low. Yes, I'm aware that the Broncos opened the season with seven straight losses, but again many were close games, including a two-point loss to Arizona on a neutral floor. It's easy to identify St. Mary's worst game of the season as it's the only one they lost. They scored just 59 points at Cal and I went against them in that spot and because I got down early, I actually got a win. Here, I anticipate the ATS result will be less in doubt as the Gaels are now being asked to lay double digits. That's always a tough ask on the conference road, especially for a team that's just 13-11 SU in "true" road games the L3 seasons. While Santa Clara's offense needs some work, their defense has been outstanding, holding opponents to just 39.1 percent shooting here at home. In what shapes up as a potentially low-scoring affair, taking the points is the way to go. 8* Santa Clara |
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12-23-15 | Kings v. Pacers -6.5 | Top | 108-106 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:05 ET): I don't like the Kings chances here at all as tonight marks the end of a four-game trip and is their third game in four nights. Monday night saw them get blown out in Washington, a 113-99 loss to a Wizards team that quite frankly hasn't been very good this season. Therefore, I do not anticipate being them prepared for this step up in class where they'll take on a Pacers team angry over B2B losses, both of which came on the road to superior opponents compared to what they'll face here. Indiana has been strong at home this season, going 10-3 SU while outscoring teams by 7.3 points per game. Meanwhile, Sacramento has been horrible on the road for years and 2015 has been no different. This line should be double digits. Lay the points. The Kings primary issue on the road is easy to identify. They simply don't play any defense. Ranking 25th in terms of defensive efficiency is really bad, but giving up 110.1 points per game on the road is downright unforgivable. Indiana plays at a pace similar to Washington (though not quite as fast), so I expect Sacramento to have the same issues here as they did in their last game when they allowed 50.6% shooting. Defense, or in the case of the Kings lack of it, is what will determine the final margin of this game. The Pacers are allowing only 95.5 PPG at home this season, so again the numbers expect this one to be decided by double digits (my own personal power ratings agree). In road losses to San Antonio and Memphis, the Pacers were held to an average of just 88 PPG. But that was on the heels of three straight home wins where they topped 100 pts every time. In 12 of their last 16 games, the Pacers have been in triple digits and three of the four times they were not came on the road. They certainly should have little difficulty scoring here against the defensively inept Kings. I was surprised to learn that Indiana is just 2-9 ATS vs. the Western Conference this year, given how we're seeing a shift in the NBA power structure (10 of top 16 teams in the league are from the East). But it's also explainable by the fact the Pacers have already played Golden State, San Antonio and the Clippers. Paul George was an awful 1 for 14 from the floor Monday in San Antonio, which won't happen again here. 10* Indiana |
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12-22-15 | Grizzlies v. 76ers +10 | Top | 104-90 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Rarely do my personal power ratings suggest the 76ers are a good value play, but they do here as a Memphis team that has simply underperformed all year comes to town. The Grizzlies have a disappointing record to begin with, just 15-14 straight up, but their YTD point differential suggests that they should actually feel fortunate to even be above .500. They've been outscored by 4.3 points per game this season, ending up on the wrong side of routs far too often. While it's highly unlikely that they'll get routed here, or even lose for that matter, the fact remains that no team in the league has a larger discrepancy when it comes to actual vs. expected wins. They have no business laying double digits on the road, even to the Sixers. Take the points. Memphis is off a minor upset as they beat Indiana 96-84 as a one-point dog Friday. That win came on the heels of them dropping four of their previous five contests. The news Grizzlies fans don't want to hear is that their favorite team is 0-3 ATS this season coming off a SU win as a dog. Also, that win against Indiana came at home. On the road, the Grizz are averaging just 94.6 PPG, proof that they don't belong in this price range, and in fact they have only one double digit road win to their credit. That came at Sacramento in the fifth game of the season. Since then, they are just 4-8 SU away from home. Making this line all the more curious is the fact they only beat Philly by eight last month at home, failing to cover as 13.5-point chalk. At 1-28 straight up, the Sixers are obviously a disaster. Perhaps even more embarrassing is the fact they haven't covered a single spread since picking up their only SU win of the season, 103-91 over the Lakers back on December 1st (0-9-1 ATS since)! But they did lead the Grizzlies late in the game back on November 29th, which was the game right before they beat the Lakers. While Memphis has dominated them head to head, most of the matchups have been close, including four of the last five here in the City of Brotherly Love being decided by five points or less. Look for the Sixers to play the Grizzlies tough for a second time this season. 10* Philadelphia |
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12-22-15 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Texas Tech -4.5 | Top | 53-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
8* Texas Tech (3:00 ET): We're down to six unbeatens left in College Hoops (for those "keeping score at home") and certainly the "least known" of the bunch resides in Arkansas Little-Rock where the 10-0 Trojans are also a perfect 6-0 against the spread. They've made me look foolish a couple of times recently, first by thrashing DePaul on the road (66-44 as 4-pt dogs) and then blowing out overmatched Northern Arizona (84-57 as 16.5-pt dogs) Sunday. If you're a regular reader/client of mine, however, then you know I've had a great deal of success targeting the dwindling list of unbeatens this month as sooner rather than later, everybody's going to drop a game. For Arkansas Little-Rock, I do believe today is finally "the day" as they visit Lubbock to play their toughest game to date, against 8-1 Texas Tech. Lay the points. This is a "true" road game, something that certainly hasn't bothered ALR to date as they've won five such contests, including at San Diego State & Tulsa as double-digit dogs. Clearly, they were not priced properly in either of those instances, but now things have swung too far "in the other direction." Curiously, the Trojans have found all this success despite averaging just 62.3 points per game away from home. They are shooting just 40.8 percent from the floor in those games (30% from three-point range). That just won't cut it here against a Red Raiders offense that's averaging 78.5 PPG here at home, outscoring opponents by 16.3 points per game. ALR did shoot 50% (tied for season-best) against Northern Arizona Sunday w/ four reserves scoring in double figures, something I do not anticipating happening here. Texas Tech is 6-0 SU at home this season and the Red Raiders only loss this year came on a neutral floor to Utah (who just beat Duke). They are off a 40-point win over another Arkansas school, albeit a much weaker one (non-board Ark Pine-Bluff). Now Arkansas Little Rock is the top defensive team in the country, in terms of points allowed, so this one likely hinges on how well Texas Tech shoots the ball here. But the good news is that they play a similar defensive style to ALR and should know what they're up against. The Red Raiders aren't too shabby at the defensive end either; they're holding opponents under 38 percent for the year. 8* Texas Tech |
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12-21-15 | San Francisco +17.5 v. St. Mary's | Top | 52-74 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (11:00 ET): Conference play in the WCC gets underway tonight w/ a full slate of games and here's one where I think the line is far too high. Of course, this spread has everything to do with favored St. Mary's being unbeaten (for most) at the betting window (I did cash going against them at Cal - bet early) and the fact they are coming off a 92-36 beatdown of Southern Utah in their last game. They commence conference play with a home game against San Francisco, whom they defeated both times last year, further inflating this number. The underdog Dons come into tonight off B2B wins, however, and scored 96 points their last time out. So I'll gladly grab the number here. With St. Mary's success, the pointspreads will only continue to rise and I think we have a "tipping point" of sorts here as this will be the second highest spread of the season, trailing only the last game against that horrible Southern Utah team. That game saw the Gaels shoot 62.5 percent from the field, including 14 of 26 from three-point range. Curiously, they shot just 57.1 percent from the free throw line. For the year, they are just 67% from the FT line and those kind of woes will eventually cost you some covers, if not games, trust me. Even more eye-opening, however, is the fact that Gaels' opponents are shooting just 60% from the charity stripe this season! That's an insane amount of good fortune, especially since those same opponents are getting to the FT line more than the Gaels are. USF was also "lights out" from the field in their last game (55.0 percent) as they beat Coppin State 96-93 in overtime. I realize that Coppin State is not a very impressive opponent, but the Dons will take a win any way they can get it. It should be pointed out that of their four losses, three have been by seven points or less. An ugly showing at Montana stands out as an outlier as they shot just 30.9 percent from the field. Remember that St. Mary's did lose all five starters from last season, so this hot start of theirs has come as a bit of a surprise. Look for this game to be closer than expected. 8* San Francisco |
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12-21-15 | Southern Illinois v. St. Louis +1 | Top | 65-52 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
10* St. Louis (8:00 ET): What has happened to the once proud Billikens? Losers of five of their last six, the team's lone win during that span came at the expense of non-board team Alabama A&M. They're off B2B losses since, both here at home. Even worse is that they were favored to win both, against Tennessee-Martin and Indiana State, and wound up coming up 27 points short of the oddsmakers projections in those two games. The good news here, of course, is that those results have created a ton of value as SLU now comes in as a slight home dog to a Southern Illinois team they beat here last season (but didn't cover) as 6.5-pt chalk. I foresee the Billikens snapping their losing streak tonight. These two programs are no strangers to one another as they play virtually every year. Predictably, most of the games have gone the home team's way, especially here in Saint Louis where the Billikens have won seven of eight matchups. Neither team shot well last year, but the difference was St. Louis made twice as many three-pointers. Three-point shooting has been basically even heading into this year's matchup. However, overall, Southern Illinois has been red hot from the floor, averaging 83.0 points per game on the road on 51.8% shooting. They were at 53.8% in Friday's upset (2.5 pt dogs) at Murray State and I just don't think those kind of numbers are sustainable, especially away from home. Though they enter tonight's game w/ a 10-2 SU record, it should be mentioned that the Salukis do have one ugly loss on their resume, that coming two games ago against SIU-Edwardsville (were 14.5-pt favorites at home in that one). It also should be pointed out that St. Louis beat SIU Edwardsville earlier in the season, here at home, by 10 points. While "Team A beat Team B" and "Team B beat Team C" does not necessarily mean "Team A will beat Team C," the value being afforded the home team here is rather curious. Note that St. Louis was victimized by a 22-2 Indiana State run in the second half on Saturday (led at the half). This is a team w/ four players averaging double figures in scoring. Honestly, I'm pretty shocked at Southern Illinois' start given they were projected to finish ninth in the 10-team Missouri Valley Conference and coming off a 12-21 SU season. 10* St. Louis |
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12-21-15 | Akron v. UC-Santa Barbara +3.5 | Top | 84-70 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
8* UC Santa Barbara (3:00 ET): UCSB is known for putting together a daunting early season schedule, year in & year out, in the hopes that it will serve them well once Big West play commences. This year, however, the Gauchos seem to really have their work cut out for them as they've opened 2-6 SU following B2B road losses to South Dakota State and Vermont. They'll now spend some time in Vegas before Christmas as part of the South Point Holiday Hoops Classic. Up first is a game w/ Akron, winners of four straight games, but all against less than stellar competition. I look for the Gauchos to start their annual turnaround here as they are a solid value in the underdog role. Take the points. The big story for this Monday afternoon matchup is that Akron's leading scorer, Pat Forsythe, is questionable due to an ankle injury suffered in the team's 81-60 win over Bethune-Cookman last Saturday. The fact that the Zips have had so much time off and Forsythe is still being listed as questionable is not a good sign. Forsythe is both the team's leading scorer and rebounder, so it would be a huge loss if he could not go here. Note that this is play stands regardless of Forsythe's status as his game would obviously be impacted by the ankle injury even if he is able to play. As a team, Akron has not shot the ball very well of late. They've actually been below 42% from the field in each of their last six contests. UCSB was victimized by the hot shooting of South Dakota State, who is great at home, last week. Three days later in Vermont, it may simply have been a case of too many "true" road games in a short span of time. Out of their eight games played so far, the Gauchos have been the visitors six times and I find it interesting that not one time all year have they been favored. Free throw shooting played a major role in the loss to Vermont as the host Catamounts went to the line 36 times, while the Gauchos were just 11 for 19. I believe that this team is overdue for a turnaround and it starts today in Vegas as hopefully Forsythe can't go. 8* UC Santa Barbara |
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12-20-15 | Pelicans -1 v. Nuggets | Top | 130-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (8:05 ET): I have to start out by saying that I'm going against my own power ratings here as the Pelicans actually rate WORSE than the Nuggets currently and by being the road team, that means they shouldn't be favored. But "looking at the broader picture," I'd say only one of these two is due to improve and that would indeed be the Pelicans. Denver is in the midst of a massive rebuild and likely will not be relevant for some time. New Orleans, with Anthony Davis drawing MVP consideration that is no longer there, was expected to be a playoff team this year. The fact that they're not, even in the weakened West, has been a real disappointment. But, nevertheless, I see them responding well to what's a huge revenge spot. This will be the Pelicans' fifth straight road game and so far they are just 1-3 SU/ATS on the trip, which ends here. They are coming off a very embarrassing result, a 104-88 loss in Phoenix (as only three-point dogs), which should have them "fired up" and ready to go here. Note that they had actually swept the Suns in a home and home last month, so the proverbial "revenge shoe" was on the other foot in that one. Here, the Pelicans have revenge for an ugly 115-98 early season loss at home. They shot just 36.6 percent from the field Friday night, one of their worst efforts of the entire season, so I'd expect some improvement there. Additionally, they committed 21 turnovers and were 4 of 22 from three-point range in Phoenix. HC Alvin Gentry ripped them "a new one" after the loss, so again, this is the usual bounce back spot for a struggling NBA squad. Denver, like New Orleans, isn't very good on the defensive end. They allow 102.4 PPG. However, it was the offense that was the problem in Friday's 97-88 loss at Utah. For what it's worth, the Jazz are the one team the Pelicans beat on this current road trip. The Nuggets had actually won five of six before that, so I'd say they are due to regress. For evidence of this, look no further than the fact they had previously dropped eight in a row. When these teams last played, Davis had to exit after just six minutes due to injury. It will be a different Pelicans team tonight. 8* New Orleans |
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12-20-15 | Northern Arizona +17.5 v. Arkansas-Little Rock | Top | 57-84 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
10* Northern Arizona (2:00 ET): We're down to only six unbeaten teams left in the entire country after Purdue and Iowa State went down Saturday. I was on the other side of both (Butler, Northern Iowa) yday and while we may not be getting the same exact result (i.e. SU dog win) here, I do think the points are plentiful as Northern Arizona hits the road to take on the least known/likely of the remaining unbeatens, that being Arkansas Little-Rock. The Trojans, now 9-0 SU and 5-0 ATS on the season, sure did make me look foolish last Saturday by going to DePaul and destroying the Blue Demons by a score of 66-44 as four-point dogs. Wednesday saw them make it five "true" road wins already this year w/ another rout, this time beating Central Arkansas (non-board team that they were playing for a second time) 77-54. But, they've got to fall sooner or later, or in this case simply fail to cover. Take the points. The role Arkansas Little-Rock finds itself in this afternoon is unfamiliar. That would be the role of prohibitive favorite, something they have not been in any lined game all season. Three of their five lined games so far have seen them come as the dog, two of those (San Diego St, Tulsa) they were actually catching double digits! I already referenced another outright win, last Saturday vs. DePaul, and there have been two games in which they were slight favorites. They were laying 3.5 to East Carolina in a 54-46 win and five to Idaho in a 64-54 win. Five of their nine wins this year have come by 10 pts or less. I don't think teams will continue to shoot as poorly as they have thus far against the Trojans (36.5%!), who may get caught looking ahead here to a road game w/ Texas Tech on Tuesday. As for Northern Arizona, all I can say is that there's no way they can be any worse than they were their last time out when they were simply bludgeoned by Arizona, 92-37 as 27.5-pt dogs. That result obviously has a massive bearing on the line here. Granted, it was also the Lumberjacks' fourth straight loss (2-8 SU overall) and they have failed to cover all four lined games this season. But they've also played two Pac 12 teams as well as Gonzaga on the road. Having shot a dismal 28 of 112 from the field the L2 games, there's only one way for NAU to go here and it's up. 10* Northern Arizona |
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12-19-15 | Clippers +1 v. Rockets | Top | 97-107 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (8:05 ET): What a brutal loss (and non-cover) last night for the Clippers. Of course, it was a GREAT win for me as I had San Antonio -7.5 and the Spurs, who trailed entering the fourth quarter, made two free throws w/ only two seconds left on the clock to "grab the money." While I may not have liked the Clips last night, that had just as much, if not more, to do with their opponent. It's a significant drop in class for Saturday as they head to Houston to play a Rockets team that's been a massive disappointment on the court and at the betting window all season. As you know (I've been harping on this), teams playing in the second of B2B games are typically undervalued and that's the case here as my own personal power ratings indicate that LA should not be an underdog in this matchup. Not only will there be motivation from last night's loss, but the revenge angle is present here as well. Los Angeles likely still hasn't forgotten being ousted in the second round of LY's playoffs, a series that they likely should have won (led big at home in Game 6). They failed at their first attempt at gaining a measure of revenge, losing outright (109-105) as 5.5-point favorites at the Staples Center back on November 7th. But that result simply is not indicative of the kind of season Houston is having. They are below .500 in the standings and are just 10-17 ATS, one year removed from being the most profitable team in the league to bet on. Things have turned around somewhat for the Rockets in December, but I put little stock in Thursday's 20-point victory as it came at the expense of the lowly Lakers. They are still just 6-12 ATS as favorites. Dwight Howard is being shopped around as trade bait and James Harden is dating Khloe Kardashian. I'm not sure either is to blame for the Rockets' poor start to the season, but neither situation is a positive. Meanwhile, even though they lost last night, I think there were some positive takeaways for the Clippers. Namely, they scored 88 points in three quarters against a team that came in allowing just 88.2 points per game. The intentional fouling of DeAndre Jordan clearly disrupted the flow of the game and negatively affected the Clips. Here, that can work both ways (Howard). Houston is also w/o backup point guard Ty Lawson (suspended) here. Both teams here have experienced disappointing starts, but the Clippers have been more consistent and generally played better. 8* LA Clippers |
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12-19-15 | Iowa State v. Northern Iowa +7.5 | Top | 79-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
8* Northern Iowa (7:00 ET): The underdog Panthers have already pulled one major upset this season, knocking off then #1 North Carolina in Cedar Falls, so they certainly won't be intimidated here in a neutral setting against another Top 5 foe, that being in-state rival Iowa State, who is unbeaten (one of eight left) and ranked #5 in the country. If you're a client/regular reader, then you already know that I've been targeting the dwindling list of unbeaten teams left as sooner rather than later, everyone is going to lose. You may recall that I played against the unbeaten Cyclones as recently as nine days ago when they likely "should have" lost to another in-state foe, Iowa. But, in addition to not covering the spread there, they also suffered another loss, that being an injury to star guard Naz Mitrou-Long. I'll take the points here. In that 83-82 win over Iowa, ISU actually trailed by as many as 20 in the second half. So chalk that result up to some good fortune. Turnovers have been a problem for the Cyclones this season, particularly in the first halves of games. They gave it away 10 times in the first 16 minutes alone vs. the Hawkeyes, whose size also gave them problems. This will also be ISU's first test w/o Long. His replacement scored 17 pts in an easy win over Arkansas Pine-Bluff (non-board team) last Saturday, but that clearly was an overmatched opponent. Of the six unbeatens left in the Top 25, I'd say that Iowa State is the most vulnerable right now. I'll reiterate the fact that they have a first year head coach as well, who is replacing the high-profile Fred Hoiberg. I'm going to chalk up Northern Iowa's 76-57 loss at New Mexico last Saturday as a case of "looking ahead." It was also the Panthers' third straight road game in an eight-day span and they shot a season-worst 6 of 25 from three-point range. Having had a full week off and returning to the Hawkeye state should be a big boost. They are 10-3 ATS L13 neutral site games and have revenge for a 91-82 loss to Iowa State in the last meeting (did cover as 10-pt dogs). That was just UNI's second loss in the last seven meetings vs. ISU. This spread is just too high. 8* Northern Iowa |
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12-19-15 | Purdue v. Butler +5.5 | Top | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
10* Butler (5:00 ET): Right now, it seems as if Purdue (not Maryland!) has emerged as the top contender to Michigan State in the Big 10. The Boilermakers are 11-0 straight up (one of eight remaining unbeatens left) with every win coming by at least 12 points. But the schedule has been rather soft to this point and if you're a client/regular reader, then you already know that I've been targeting the dwindling list of unbeaten teams left as sooner rather than later, everyone is going to lose. This evening, Matt Painter's team faces its toughest test to date in the form of Butler, who is 8-1 SU w/ a "true" road win at Cincinnati. The Bulldogs have routinely topped 90 points (four times) this season including each of the L2 games. They can absolutely win this neutral site matchup of in-state rivals. Take the points. This will be a case of the irresistible force meeting the immovable object. Butler comes in averaging 91.7 points per game (4th in terms of off. efficiency) while Purdue is allowing just 57.5 (1st in terms of def. efficiency). In each case, it will be the toughest opponent faced all season. Teams are shooting just 33.3 percent for the year against the Boilermakers, which seems unsustainable. Likewise, Butler's offensive numbers are due to drop but a team that's made 20 three-pointers its last two games, getting this many points, is dangerous in the underdog role. They are also 10-5 ATS in a neutral court setting the L3 seasons (64-32 ATS L96!). Purdue has simply not had much success in this all-Indiana event. They've lost four straight times to Butler, including the last meeting (in 2013), 76-70 as 2.5-pt pups. I readily concede that this is the best Boilermakers squad that the Bulldogs will have faced during that time. But, once again I'll reiterate that Butler is the best team Purdue has faced so far. Not only do we have a sharp-shooting underdog on our hands, but underrated may be the facts that the Bulldogs are 13th nationally in fewest turnovers per game (just 10.1) and 27th in free throw percentage (74.9%). The fewest points Butler has scored in a game all season is 74 and taking this number, I think there's a very good chance they stay within the money. 10* Butler |
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12-18-15 | Clippers v. Spurs -7.5 | Top | 107-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (8:05 ET): Don't tell the Spurs that Golden State is "lapping" the rest of the league as they have a nearly identical per game point differential (+13.4 vs. +13.5) and come into tonight at 22-5 SU, which includes a perfect 14-0 at home. That makes them a bargain as a single-digit favorite, at least in my opinion, against just about any opponent. That includes the Clippers, who have turned it around somewhat, but are still only +2.1 in per game point differential and a 6-1 SU stretch has come mostly at the expense of inferior opponents (favored in every game). As the underdog, it's been a different story for Doc Rivers' bunch as they are 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS in that role and really there's no question who the better defensive team is here. Lay the points. San Antonio is destroying teams at home this year, outscoring opponents by 16.8 points per game. The main reason for that is a defense that is allowing just 86.1 PPG. This is the #1 team in the league - by a mile - in terms of defensive efficiency. Per 100 possessions, they are allowing 4.2 points less than the #2 team (Chicago), which is a wider gap than the difference between #2 and #12! On the other hand, the Clippers are allowing 103.2 PPG on the road. They've been fortunate in that their last few opponents have all shot relatively poorly from the floor. Unfortunately for the Clips, San Antonio is shooting better than 48% overall this season, including 37% from three-point range. They are also 14-5 ATS this season vs. opponents allowing 99+ PPG. This is also a major revenge spot for the Spurs. It's the first time they've faced off w/ LA since being ousted in seven games in LY's first round playoff series. That series saw the Clips win twice in San Antonio, something that I'm sure Greg Popovich will remind his team of, plus there's the fact that the Clippers also won by 20 here in the Alamo during LY's regular season. Following a double-digit win (beat the Bucks 103-90 on Tuesday), the Clippers are 0-5 against the spread this season. Meanwhile, the Spurs have posted four consecutive victories, all by 19 points or more and 14 of their 22 wins this season have come by a double digit margin. 8* San Antonio |
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12-18-15 | Kings v. Wolves +2.5 | Top | 95-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Yes, I'm doing "this" again, this being taking the T'wolves at home despite a woeful 3-10 SU/1-12 ATS record here. Not surprisingly, that is easily a league-worst and it includes a recent 0-4 homestand + a double-digit loss to Denver earlier in the week. A quick visit to New York failed to yield any better results as the team fell to the Knicks, 107-102 on Wednesday, but in this spot they are simply being way undervalued. I know I've said this before, but tonight marks the strongest case yet as Sacramento comes in as a road favorite (!), a role you just don't find them in very often. In fact, the Kings haven't been road chalk even one time this season and are 1-6 ATS laying three or less away from home the L3 seasons. They lost, at home, to Minnesota (as three-point favorites) last month, so take the points. That last meeting took place on November 27th and saw the T'wolves not just prevail, but win by double digits, 101-91. Kings fans will point to the fact they were w/o their best player, DeMarcus Cousins, and that Rudy Gay played his worst game of the season (1 for 13 FG attempts). They are also likely to point to the team's current three-game win streak that's seen them also cover as favorites every time. But all of those games came at home. This has been a terrible road team for years and so far this season has been no different as they've gone 2-8 SU while allowing a horrifying 112.5 points per game! My own personal power ratings indicate that Sacramento should not even be favored in this game and instead should be around a five-point dog. Minnesota is hardly "sound" defensively itself as they've given up 107 or more points in seven straight contests, none of which have seen them cover the spread. But this shapes up as a good matchup and not just because they've already beaten the Kings once this season. They've averaged 106.1 PPG those last seven contests as well, so I'd look for them to win a high-scoring affair here. Also of note is the fact that Sacramento turned the ball over a mind-numbing 29 times their last game (granted, no Rondo). The bottom line is that the Timberwolves HAVE to turn things around at home. 10* Minnesota |
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12-18-15 | South Carolina v. Clemson +2 | Top | 65-59 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
10* Clemson (7:00 ET): South Carolina is one of the eight remaining unbeatens left in College Hoops. They've covered all but one lined game this season, an 81-63 win over South Florida where they were 19-point home favorites. I successfully went against the Gamecocks there and will do so again here, this time the result will likely end up being their first SU loss of the season. Yes, they looked as dominant as ever earlier this week in a 79-54 beatdown of Drexel. But this will be South Carolina's first "true" road game of the season and it comes against a hungry in-state rival seeking revenge for an embarrassing 23-point loss in Columbia last year. Clemson comes into Friday having won three of four, the lone loss coming by a single point. If a team shoots worse than 30 percent, chances are they won't win the game. Clemson found that out the hard way, losing 68-45 last season at South Carolina as seven-point dogs. In the loss, the Tigers shot a woeful 29.8% overall (17 of 57!) including 4 of 18 from three-point range. That was one of their worst losses of last season w/ only losses to Virginia and North Carolina meeting or exceeding that final margin. Eight of their 15 losses in 2014-15 were by six points or less, so you could make a case the team should have finished w/ a better record than 16-15 SU. This year, they've opened 7-3 SU following a 69-41 rout of Presbyterian on Tuesday. That was their fourth straight game holding an opponent to 56 pts or less (and 7th time in 10 games) as opponents are shooting just 37.9% against them for the year. Even better is that Clemson comes in averaging a solid 71.3 points per game itself. They'll need to bring their offense here as South Carolina averages 83.2 PPG. But that's come at the expense of a fairly light schedule. You'll note that the Gamecocks aren't even ranked in the AP Poll (#25 in Coach's), so they're not really impressing the pollsters either. Also note that while this game isn't actually being played on Clemson's campus (it's taking place in nearby Greenville), it is still a road game for USC, who the L2 seasons have gone 4-18 straight up as the visitor. Rebounding likely decides this game as the Gamecocks are +10.3 per game in that department, but Clemson has won the battle of the boards in all seven of its victories. 10* Clemson |
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12-16-15 | South Dakota State v. Texas Tech -3 | Top | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
10* Texas Tech (8:00 ET): The Jackrabbits of South Dakota State are not a team to be taken lightly. They are 9-1 straight up (lost to Missouri-KC, a non-board team) and covered all seven lined games. This includes B2B impressive performances. First they went to Minnesota and came away w/ a 14-point victory as 2.5 dogs. Then, I made the mistake of doubting their ability to cover a fairly large spread Sunday vs. UC Santa Barbara as they prevailed 86-68. It was their third consecutive game scoring 80+, in fact. However, I'm going to go against them again here as this time they have to hit the road to play a team that hasn't played in a week. Clearly, the oddsmakers have taken notice of SDSU and this line is simply way too short. Texas Tech has lost only one time themselves, back in the second game of the year, which was on a neutral court against Utah. Since then, they've won five in a row, including 68-49 over Tennessee Martin last Wednesday. Having a full week off should have them ready to go for this one, their toughest test since their own win over Minnesota back on November 22nd. The Red Raiders average 73.7 points per game and attempted only 12 free throws in their last game. So, I expect a strong showing at the offensive end here. Against UT Martin, they jumped out to a 39-16 halftime advantage as a number of players turned in strong performances. With the time off, there's no reason to project any decline here. Playing w/ five or six days rest, the Red Raiders have gone 6-1 against the spread the L3 seasons. Remember Tubby Smith? He's the coach here in Lubbock. He has never lost to South Dakota State in eight career matchups. His team is playing solid defense (63 PPG allowed here at home). I look for the Red Raiders to hold the Jackrabbits in relative check tonight. Certainly, it will be very difficult for South Dakota State to come close to matching its scorching 58.3 percent shooting from the UCSB game. The Jackrabbits have now won 21 straight home games. But they have a losing record on the road the L3 seasons (despite a 3-1 mark this year), including their one loss so far, again, to a non-board team. 10* Texas Tech |
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12-15-15 | Rockets +2.5 v. Kings | Top | 97-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
8* Houston (10:05 ET): The Rockets are experiencing a very different season this year compared to last as they've gone from the best ATS team in the league to one of the worst. Kevin McHale was the early season scapegoat and while the team recently was able to win five of six, they lost again last night, 114-108 in Denver. The team is now 9-16 at the betting window this season, but the good news for tonight is that they find themselves undervalued in Sacramento. Though I got burned last night, twice, teams playing the second of B2B road games typically are undervalued as Houston is here. The Rockets are at least a respectable 4-4 SU/ATS as dogs this year and Sacramento typically isn't a team you want to lay points with. If anything, the Kings probably "deserve" to lose here. They will be w/o Rajon Rondo due to some shameful remarks he made to a referee. Rondo was actually having a resurgence this year, after LY's "lost" season in Dallas. This is not a deep team and they were already w/o rookie Willie Cauley-Stein to begin with. Rondo's absence places a huge burden on Boogie Cousins to carry the team. Rondo total 33 points, 25 rebounds and 16 assists in Sacramento's wins over Utah and the Knicks the L2 games and I don't know where HC George Karl turns to fill that lost production. Shooting has dictated their last two results as the Kings shot 55% from the field themselves against the Jazz and then held the Knicks to 39%. A repeat of either performance is unlikely here. Meanwhile, this is a good matchup for Houston and not just because they've gone 16-4 SU the L20 meetings w/ Sacramento, including eight straight wins. Like the Rockets, the Kings struggle defensively and they are one of the few teams in the league to allow more points per game than Houston does. That means this one likely comes down to the respective offenses and right now the Rockets simply have more firepower. It appears as if Dwight Howard is actually going to play in this second game of a back to back, which is rare. 8* Houston |
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12-15-15 | DePaul v. Stanford -8 | Top | 60-79 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
10* Stanford (10:00 ET): DePaul was a major letdown for me Saturday night as they got blown out (at home!) by unbeaten Arkansas Little-Rock 66-44. The Blue Demons were actually favored in that contest, so in retrospect that looks like a case of "bad read" by me (does happen from time to time!). Coming off a SU loss as a favorite, one might be inclined to call for some sort of bounce back, but the underdog role has not served this team very well as they are 0-3 ATS in it, including double digit losses to South Carolina and Florida State. Tonight, they take on a Stanford team that's better than its 4-3 SU record, which includes games against SMU, St. Mary's and Villanova, all of whom were unbeaten going into last week. I'll lay the points in this one. Since losing to three in a row, Stanford has responded w/ back to back wins over Arkansas and Dartmouth. The latter came after a two-week break for finals and the Cardinal responded as you might expect; by quickly opening up a double-digit lead and never trailing. That was actually just the second time they were favored this year; the first being the season opener when they failed to cover an eight-point spot here at home against WI-Green Bay. But they've gotten much stronger defensively since that time, allowing an average of just 58.3 points per game during a 3-0 ATS streak, which includes a game vs. Villanova (neutral site). Facing an opponent that just scored only 44 points on its home floor seems like an ideal matchup to me. This is also a massive revenge spot for Stanford, who lost outright as eight-point favorites LY in Chicago, 87-72. DePaul shot the ball very well in that game (54.4 percent overall) while Stanford did not, at least from three-point range where they went a dismal 4 for 19. They also attempted 13 less free throws. Going back to Saturday, consider that the Blue Demons' opponent shot just 40.7% from the field and still was able to win on the road by 22 points. Not a good sign at all. Stanford just doesn't lose at home very often (31-8 SU L39 games at Maples Pavillion), so I have little issue with the pointspread in this one. 10* Stanford |
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12-15-15 | Nuggets v. Wolves -5 | Top | 112-100 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): I'm going back to this well again as the T'wolves' awful 3-9 SU/1-11 ATS home record is now REALLY "due" to improve, right? As previously discussed, Minnesota has one of the most unusual home-road dichotomies going on in recent memory. While the young team has struggled to win at home, they are 6-5 SU/9-2 ATS on the road. My theory is that dichotomy is likely to start evening out over the long-term, and sure enough over the weekend we saw the T'wolves drop B2B road games in Denver & Phoenix. Tonight marks a chance to avenge one of those defeats, as the Nuggets come to town, and because of the past struggles it does appear that the home side is undervalued in this one. Lay the points. Denver had to play last night. They won for a second consecutive time, despite giving up 108 points. While it was a 111-108 final score against Minnesota on Friday, they won 114-108 over Houston on Monday. A fast start (shot 68.2 percent in the 1st quarter and scored 36 points) was the key last night as the Nuggets were able to absorb the Rockets "answering the bell" w/ a 36-18 edge in the second quarter. Also key for Denver was the way they dominated the interior. I don't see that happening here against a Minnesota team that more often than not wins the rebounding battle. The offense has been way above average for the Nuggets of late, so I project a decline starting tonight. The team is just 2-7 ATS after scoring 105+ points its previous game. Though they've been scoring more than usual of late, Denver still only ranks 26th in the league in terms of offensive efficiency. They also rank 22nd in defensive efficiency, so this clearly is still a team that's a work in progress. So too is Minnesota, but I believe the T'wolves will come in as the more "desperate" side here as they look to snap an ugly 1-6 SU slide. Denver is just 1-4 ATS coming off a SU win as a dog and is 1-4 SU playing in the second game of a back to back. It looks as if Nuggets PG Emmanuel Mudiay is going to be out again, which hurts in the second night of a B2B. Minnesota blew a 15-point halftime lead when these teams met Friday and won by 17 in Denver earlier this year, so they know this is an opponent they can dominate. For the 1st time this year, the T'wolves will cover as a favorite. 10* Minnesota |
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12-14-15 | Jazz +12.5 v. Spurs | Top | 81-118 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
8* Utah (8:35 ET): The Jazz are off a brutal loss on Sunday, falling 104-98 to the Thunder in overtime. They blew a double-digit halftime lead and despite scoring only two points in OT, OKC did enough for me to just barely send the game Over the total (I do realize that the number closed higher for some). There's no time for Utah to "cry over spilled milk," however, as tonight they are in San Antonio to play a Spurs team that has stayed under the radar due to Golden State's historic start. That's just the way Greg Popovich likes it though as his team is 20-5 straight up (12-0 here at home) and outscoring opponents by 12.2 points per game. That being said, this is a really big number to lay in a game where so few points are expected (O/U line is 185.5!). I'm on the dog here. Take nothing away from San Antonio, but to this point they have played the easiest schedule in the entire league, at least according to opponents' current win percentage. Helping to inflate this line is the fact that the Spurs just destroyed the Hawks, in Atlanta, Saturday night. The final score there was 103-78 in a game they were only 2.5-point favorites. Again, take your hat off for them, but it is highly unlikely that the Jazz will shoot as poorly here as the Hawks did in that game (just 37.5% overall). Of course, we are also getting a good value here due to the fact Utah had to play on the road last night. Regular readers/clients of mine know I highly value this spot as the line is often shaded too high in favor of the rested home team (why I'm playing Philadelphia as well tonight). I've been making a veritable killing playing said spot this season. Utah may only be 12-27 ATS its L39 trips to San Antonio, but this is a much better Jazz team than those past editions. The Spurs are #1 (by a mile) in the league right now in terms of defensive efficiency (allow just 91.9 points per 100 possessions, which is nearly five points fewer than the #2 team!). But the Jazz also rank near the top of the league in fewest points allowed, giving up just 96.5 PPG on the season. They are also 8-2 ATS as underdogs this season, so expect this one to go down to the wire, despite the fact that the Jazz are playing w/o rest. They are 3-1 SU/ATS playing in the second night of a back to back this season. 8* Utah |
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12-14-15 | 76ers +13 v. Bulls | Top | 96-115 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (8:05 ET): We have a team playing the second of back to back road games here and while "it's the Sixers," there's still value to be had in this spot. I've written before about how I don't think this Chicago team is living up to its vaunted reputation as they are outscoring opponents by only a meager 0.4 points per 100 possessions, so they are hardly an outstanding candidate to be laying double digits to anyone at this juncture, even the lowly 76ers. Philly is a solid 4-2 ATS when taking 12.5 or more points this year and this will likely be the most weight Chicago lays in a game all season. Take the points. Overall, the Bulls have gone just 1-5 at the betting window here in December and while they've won B2B games SU, those victories have come by a collective seven points. Both were here at home. You'd have to go back quite a long way to find this team's last double-digit victory. It did come in Philadelphia, back on November 9th, 111-88 as 10.5-pt chalk. But that win also represents their ONLY win by 10 or more points all season! A 10-4 SU record in games decided by six points or less is what's kept them afloat. Sometimes, it is better to be "lucky than good" and make no mistake about it, a record such as that one represents good "luck." It's no surprise to me to find Chicago at just 4-11 ATS when favored considering they are 28th in the league in offensive efficiency. Only the Lakers and 76ers are worse. Philadelphia lost by 20 last night in Toronto as they fell to a horrid 1-24 straight up this season. However, for much of the game, it was a lot closer. It was actually a six-point game midway through the fourth quarter! Had they shot better (33 percent overall!) or scored more than 32 points in the second half, the margin wouldn't have been as great. Really, it's that simple. Also, turning the ball over 22 times did the Sixers no favors. Points off turnovers have just killed them all season as no team in the league has allowed more. But in what shapes up as a low-scoring affair, taking the points is the way to go. 8* Philadelphia |
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12-13-15 | UC-Santa Barbara +10.5 v. South Dakota State | Top | 68-86 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
8* UC Santa Barbara (3:00 ET): Looking at UCSB's non-conference slate thus far, one takeaway I have is that it's a good thing the Gauchos aren't in the Pac 12. Some VERY aggressive early season scheduling has had them play FOUR Pac 12 team thus far, all resulting in losses. So, I don't put a ton of stock into this 2-4 SU record of theirs considering that they've actually been an underdog in every game. That role doesn't change Sunday afternoon as they play ANOTHER "true" road game (5th already!) at South Dakota State, who is 8-1 straight up and a perfect 6-0 against the spread. The Jackrabbits have taken their own act out on the road several times as well and are off a surprising win at Minnesota Tuesday. But, to me, the key here is that UCSB has had plenty of time to prepare as their last game took place all the way back on December 3rd. Take the points. In addition to winning at Minnesota earlier this week, SDSU has also gone to both Illinois State and TCU and pulled off outright upsets (each time as a very small dog) on the road. Interestingly enough, their one loss came at the hands of the one non-board team they faced on the road, Missouri-KC. That game saw them shoot a season-worst 39.7 percent from the field. But the Jackrabbits were impressive before and ever since, particularly against Minnesota, whom they led from start to finish (including a 23-pt advantage at the half!). This is the favorite in the Summit League this season (made the NCAA Tournament in 2012, 2013, then won 24 games LY). However, I think that the fast start has them overvalued here against an opponent that will be rested and ready. SDSU hasn't lost a home game since January, but UCSB is no stranger to the road. The Gauchos are 17-12 ATS out on the road the L3 seasons, including a 3-1 mark this year. Having already gone into a variety of hostile environments this season, they won't be intimidated in the least by today's venue. Note that two of their losses have been by a combined three points. Ten days ago against USC, they trailed by only three at the half and it was a two point game inside of six minutes to go. Late free throws were responsible for the final margin. I just think that South Dakota State's stock is a little too high right now. 8* UC Santa Barbara |
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12-12-15 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. DePaul -4.5 | Top | 66-44 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
10* DePaul (10:00 ET): If you're a regular reader/subscriber, then you already know that I've been strategically targeting the dwindling list of remaining unbeatens in College Basketball, which is now down to 10 teams. Three of them are underdogs Saturday, one of them being possibly the least known of the lot, Arkansas Little-Rock. The Trojans come in at 7-0 SU and 4-0 ATS, but let's face the fact that we still know very little about this team despite a pair of upsets (on the road!) over San Diego State and Tulsa. They just got done playing the slowest game of the week (credit KenPom), a 64-54 win over Idaho, their second opponent this year that rates outside the top 250. They've also played three non-lined (meaning non D-I) opponents. I look for Depaul to hand them their first loss of the season. Lay the points. The Blue Demons seem to be over an early season three-game slide as they've won four straight, three of those coming by double digits. They too are off a road win, 74-71 at Drake on Wednesday, a game where their early season shooting success continued. They finished at 57.1% from the field for the game, the third time in the last four games they were at 54 percent or better. Facing an opponent that is allowing just 54.6 PPG on 35.7% shooting will undoubtedly be a challenge, but one the Blue Demons should be up for. Four players finished in double figures against Drake and there have been three times this season the team has scored 80+. Depaul is 4-0 SU as a favorite this season and 14-5 SU in that role the past three seasons. As for ALR, they are off an extended break and history says that will not be kind to them. The Trojans are just 1-7 ATS the L3 seasons when playing w/ 5 or 6 days rest and that amount of time off can really break a team's "momentum" (granted, I hate that word), especially one that is off to the best start in program history. Tip your cap to the Trojans for being tied for the most "true" road wins in the country (3), but their unbeaten run ends tonight in what is an unusually late start time (favors the home side) on national TV. I just don't think the Trojans have the horses to keep pace in what likely ends up as their highest scoring game to date. 10* DePaul |
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12-12-15 | Lakers +11.5 v. Rockets | Top | 97-126 | Loss | -103 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
10* LA Lakers (8:05 ET): Subscribers/regular readers might find this selection a tad bit "unusual" considering just last night I went AGAINST these sorry Lakers and came away w/ a relatively easy win and cover on the Spurs, who were laying double digits and without Tony Parker (rest). However, as ridiculously low as that line may have been (in my analysis, I talked about how my own ratings said the number should have been at least -20!), tonight's number seems equally as unfair, only this time to the Lakers' opponent! You're telling me that Houston should only be laying three points less than San Antonio to the same opponent? Have you seen the Rockets play this year? My theory that teams playing in the second of B2B road games are often undervalued has treated me extremely well all season and I'll go back to it again here tonight. Take the points. The Lakers are now a horrible 3-20 straight up this season and have just one win in their last 13 games. But that one win did come early in this road trip, when playing w/o rest, at Washington. I also took them when they traveled to Toronto, the night after losing by 20 in Detroit. So, despite this being the finale of an eight-game, 12-day trip, the situation is not as bad for LA as it may look. Thankfully, Kobe Bryant has ceded some control of the offense to #2 overall DC D'Angelo Russell, who has led the team in scoring each of the L2 games. Though the final score ended up being one-sided last night, it was only an eight-point game heading into the fourth quarter. The Lakers are 4-1 ATS playing the second game of a back to back this season. Houston has been one of the league's biggest disappointments this season. They made Kevin McHale the early season scapegoat, but even after his firing, the team has continued to struggle. Yes, they have seemingly turned things around recently w/ SU wins in six of their last eight, but they've played a lot of bad teams during that stretch and there hasn't been a single double-digit victory to speak of. In fact, their largest margin of victory ALL SEASON has been seven points! They had the best ATS record in the league a year ago, but now find themselves near the bottom of those standings this year (funny how that works out!), including a 3-10 ATS mark at home. 10* LA Lakers |
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12-12-15 | Cincinnati +5.5 v. Xavier | Top | 55-65 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (5:30 ET): This annual cross-town rivalry is being brought to you by Skyline Chilli this year and I'd like to take just a moment to "put over" how much I like Skyline Chilli. Also appetizing are the points underdog Cincinnati is receiving on Saturday as they look to snap a two-year losing streak to Xavier. The favored Musketeers come in as just one of 10 unbeaten teams left in the country and as you know, I've been targeting that dwindling list for the last week or so. Xavier is getting plenty of "run" lately, due to the impressive 9-0 SU start and is 6-3 ATS at the betting window as well. But Cincy is a formidable challenger given that their lone loss this season came on a buzzer-beater. Last year's meeting was also decided by a margin of two, so take the points. Both teams come into this game ranked for the first time in 22 years. I admit that to this point Xavier has been very impressive. They went to Ann Arbor and destroyed Michigan by 16, their one "true" road game thus far. A 35-point beatdown of Wright State on Tuesday marked the Musketeers fifth consecutive win while covering the spread (were -23.5). There's been just one time all season that they've won by a single digit margin and it wasn't against Alabama, USC or Dayton (it was the opener vs. Miami (OH)). But you have to wonder what happens when Xavier gets "hit in the mouth" for the first time. This easily projects to be their toughest game of the season to date and while the advanced stats love the Musketeers, I actually believe Cincinnati is the better team here. The key today will be the Bearcats' defense. The last two years have seen them allow their highest shooting percentage of the season to Xavier. Last year, three-point shooting was the difference. The Musketeers were 58.8 percent from behind the arc; Cincy was just 4 for 16 (25%). I don't see that discrepancy taking place again today as the Bearcats are better offensively this year w/ eight players averaging at least 7.3 points per game. Also, they allow the third-lowest field goal percentage in the country on two-point attempts (36.5%) while blocking a lot of shots and not fouling. The revenge factor is huge as well. Don't discount that Cincy beat George Washington, the team that beat Virginia, either. 8* Cincinnati |
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12-12-15 | St. Mary's v. California -5.5 | Top | 59-63 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
10* California (3:30 ET): What a difference a week makes. Last Saturday, I went AGAINST Cal, as they played their first "true" road game of the season in Laramie, Wyoming. As you saw, that is no easy place to play and the Bears needed overtime to get by the underdog Cowboys, 78-72, but they failed to cover as 7.5-pt chalk. After following up that close call w/ a "ho-hum" win over Incarnate Word, Cal now is set to take on its strongest foe of the season to date, that being unbeaten St. Mary's. The Gaels come into this one a perfect 6-0 straight up and 4-0 against the spread, but are the underdogs and for good reason. This is their first "true" road game of the campaign and thus I'll back the Bears, who are 6-0 SU in Berkeley, as a slight fave. St. Mary's, out of the WCC, already has one win over a Pac 12 team this season, that being Stanford back on November 22nd (78-61, -3.5). But honestly, the Cardinal fall outside the top 100 in most rating systems (Vegas, KenPom, etc) while Cal is formerly ranked in the Top 25. The other competition the Gaels have taken on thus far leaves a lot to be desired and note that despite red-hot 61.5% shooting in the first half of their last game (vs. UC Irvine), they couldn't really shake their opponents, leading by only three at halftime. The likelihood of a similar shooting performance this afternoon is pretty low, I'd say. Not only is this SMC's 1st true road game, but it is the first time they've been an underdog this season. That's a role that has not treated them well the past two seasons as they're just 3-9 SU/4-8 ATS when taking points. This is a 12:30 PM local start for the two teams, which is pretty early. I'd say that greatly favors the home side. Yes, Cal was a big "sluggish" on Wednesday and seemed to struggle against a zone defense. But this is a team that's really had only one poor offensive showing all season, that coming against San Diego State. St. Mary's is due to have its own shooting decline and speaking of "due," a five-game ATS losing skid for the home team is due to turn around as well. Remember that SMC lost all five starters from LY and that Cal was projected to contend for a Pac 12 Conference Title. The Bears have too much talent, most notably potential lottery pick Jaylen Brown, to lose here. 10* California |
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12-11-15 | Lakers v. Spurs -14.5 | Top | 87-109 | Win | 100 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (9:35 ET): This is a case of "wrong place, wrong time" for the Lakers, who are sorry enough to begin with, but a trip to San Antonio when the Spurs are off a rare defeat should not go well at all. Wednesday night saw Greg Popovich's team lose for just the fifth time all season (all on the road), 97-94 as six-point favorites in Toronto. It's how they've responded to those previous four defeats that has caught my eye, however, as they've outscored opponents by an impressive 20.5 points per game (all double digit wins) while going a perfect 4-0 against the spread. At home, the Spurs are a perfect 11-0 SU, holding teams to an average of just 85.6 PPG, so I'm not joking when I say this line should be higher than -20. Lay the big number here. This isn't the first time I've laid a big number against the Lakers this season. Perhaps you'll recall the night the Warriors set a NBA record for most consecutive wins to start a season, they were 17.5-point chalk against the Lakers. I laid the number and the result was a 111-77 massacre. The Spurs have the capability to do the same thing tonight. I talked about the outstanding defensive numbers already and the result of that is they outscore teams, on average, by about 14.3 PPG here at home. Factoring in the fact the Lakers (who allow 106.3 PPG) are getting outscored by double digits on the road, you can see how I come to the conclusion that this line should certainly exceed -20. Do you think Kobe Bryant might struggle shooting the ball against this Spurs' defense? Bryant, easily the league's worst jump shooter right now, goes up against a team that's held its previous opponents to a collective 42.1 field goal percentage this season. Kobe finds himself well below that threshold as he's at 30.9% for the season and an even worse 28.6% the L10 games. Yet, he'll continue to shoot far too much and that's just fine by me. The Spurs lead the league in terms of defensive efficiency, are clearly the second best team in the league and taking on a foe that is a horrific 3-19 SU overall (just one win in L12 games). Were in not for Golden State and Philadelphia, these teams would be at complete opposite ends of the NBA spectrum. 8* San Antonio |
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12-11-15 | Hornets +3.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 123-99 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (8:05 ET): This is one of those games where my own personal power ratings are in significant disagreement w/ the oddsmakers. While Memphis comes in as the favorite, my rankings say they shouldn't be. This team has been too prone to getting blown out, here at home in particular, as Tuesday's 125-88 loss to the Thunder marked the fourth time this season that the Grizzlies lost to a top 10 team by at least 20 points. They followed that up with a miraculous 93-92 win in Detroit Wednesday (Matt Barnes' half-court heave), but you might be shocked to learn that Charlotte is another top 10 foe that the Grizz should struggle against. The fact the Hornets are an impressive 18-5 ATS (3-0 ATS this year!) as a road underdog of +3.5 to +6 may not even matter as they outscore teams by 5.2 points per 100 possessions, a rate which trails only the "big 3" in the West (Golden State, San Antonio, Oklahoma City)! Take the points. Over its L10 games, the Hornets have lost only two times - to Cleveland and Golden State. They come into tonight on an impressive three-game win streak as they've won at Chicago, then blown out both Detroit & Miami (by a combined 38 pts) at home. A big reason for their success is that they've gotten back to playing that great defense they were known for two seasons ago (when they made the playoffs), holding four of their last seven opponents under 88 points. But they also join the Warriors and Spurs as the only three teams in the league to currently rate in the top seven in both offensive and defensive efficiency. No team in the league turns it over fewer times per game than do the Hornets (just 11.3). Memphis, meanwhile, has issues. They are averaging only 95.8 PPG for the year and while they've gone nearly a month w/o dropping B2B games straight up, they're only 3-9 ATS at home. Again, it was a fortunate win on Wednesday as not only did they trail by seven entering the fourth quarter, but Barnes' half-court shot was ill-conceived as it came w/ 1.1 seconds still on the clock. In terms of actual vs. expected wins (based on YTD point differential), no team is more "off" than the Grizzlies, who according to their -4.5 per game point differential should have a losing record. 10* Charlotte |
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12-11-15 | Warriors v. Celtics +6.5 | Top | 124-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:35 ET): Well, here it is. If Golden State (now 23-0 SU) is to drop a game on this seven-game trip, this is the more likely spot (finale at Milwaukee tomorrow). As a reminder, no team in NBA history has EVER swept a road trip of seven or more games. So far, they are 3-2 ATS on this trip w/ Utah and Toronto coming close to upsetting them (both three point games). I took the points w/ the Raptors last Saturday, a winner, then actually laid the big number w/ the Warriors the following day as they blew out Brooklyn. However, my "luck" ran out on Tuesday as six points wasn't quite enough for Indiana in a wild 131-123 game. However, the big story coming out of that contest was the ankle injury to Klay Thompson, the first sign that the Warriors may not be infallible after all. Thompson is currently listed as questionable for tonight, but either way, I'll take the points. Boston will be the best team that Golden State has played this season. You read that correctly. A pretty compelling case can be made that the Celtics have been the East's best team to this point as they currently lead the Conference in per game point differential (+5.4) and have the second most double digit victories (trailing only Golden St) in the league. In fact, only two of their 13 victories this season have come by LESS than a 13-pt margin! One of those was their last time out, 105-100 over Chicago. But they still covered there (were only -3.5), improving to 5-0 ATS L5. A real key here is that Boston actually ranks above Golden State in terms of defensive efficiency. Prior to tonight, the Warriors have not faced any of the four teams ahead of them in that particular category. Though their defensive efficiency is good (98.2 points allowed per 100 possessions), the Warriors are allowing 105.8 PPG on the road. Some of that is owed to the pace at which they play (league's third fastest), but the fact they've gotten away with allowing 116+ points four times this season (all on the road) and still covered every time seems pretty preposterous. I'm not sure that the Celtics win here, but I love them plus the points as they are 5-2 ATS already as underdogs and come in averaging 108.0 points their L5 games. 8* Boston |
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12-10-15 | Knicks +6 v. Kings | Top | 97-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
10* New York (10:35 ET): Needless to say, we may want to "pump the brakes" a little bit on this Knicks' "resurgence" as last night saw them get absolutely humiliated in Utah. The 105-86 final score doesn't even begin to tell the "whole story" as the Jazz quickly jumped out to a 29-11 lead after one quarter and the advantage grew to as many as 33 points (70-37!) midway through the third quarter. As bad of a game as that was for New York, I feel that it offers us an excellent opportunity to "buy low" here as my own personal power ratings suggest that Sacramento shouldn't be favored by more than a basket here. Also, as I mentioned in the other two game analysis in this report, teams playing in the second of B2B road games are generally undervalued to begin with. Take the points here. When Boogie Cousins is happy and in the lineup, the Kings are a much better team. Here at home, they beat Utah Tuesday night, 114-106 and they actually closed as a three-point favorite for that contest. They got out to a sizable early lead that they would never relinquish thanks to red-hot 55.6 percent shooting, not their best for the season, but pretty close. On the defensive end, where typically this team is not very good at all (29th in points allowed), they somehow got away w/ allowing the Jazz to connect on 15 of 36 three-point attempts. In a weird twist, Utah was only 23 of 56 (41 percent) from two-point range. That's simply not indicative of the poor defense we generally see from the Kings on a game by game basis. Cousins continues to battle through back and ankle injuries and that could very well limit his usage here, which would be a huge hit to Sacramento's chances of winning, let alone covering. The Knicks are just 2-7 SU/ATS their L9 games with the two wins coming over Brooklyn and Philadelphia. That's played a significant role in this line being inflated. But I like them very much in this price range due to the fact the team is a solid 8-2 against the spread taking 4.5 or more points from the oddsmakers this season. I'm willing to write off last night as simply being "one of those nights" as it's highly unlikely that Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis combine to shoot 5 of 19 from the field (like they did last night) again. Sacramento has been favored by this many points only one other time all season and the result ended up being a two-point win over Brooklyn here at home. 10* New York |
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12-10-15 | Clippers +1 v. Bulls | Top | 80-83 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (8:05 ET): I've written before that the early returns on Fred Hoiberg's Bulls haven't been all that impressive despite a somewhat successful WL record. However, now the team is just 11-8 SU and in eighth place in a much improved East and you might be surprised to learn that a number of key metrics say that position is pretty much indicative of where they "are at" right now. Following a loss in a Boston last night, 105-100 as 3.5-point pups, Chicago finds itself essentially dead even in points allowed vs. scored per 100 possessions and their record would be a lot worse if not for an 8-4 SU record in games decided by six points or less. Only Brooklyn and Philadelphia have been worse in terms of offensive efficiency this season and the Bulls are only 2-8 ATS at home. The Clippers also played Wednesday night, however, their result was far more to their liking as they went to Milwaukee and easily handled the Bucks. The 109-95 win and cover gives Doc Rivers' team a three-game win streak and overall they've won six of seven. Quite simply, these are two teams trending in opposite directions right now. Chicago has dropped three in a row (four straight ATS) and while they've all been close games, the results have been somewhat predictable given their "lucky" 8-1 (SU) start to the season in games decided by six points or less. Hoiberg replacing a proven commodity in Tom Thibodeau was supposed to make the Bulls a better offensive team this year, but somehow they've managed to actually regress at that end of the floor. Hoiberg is already tinkering (unsuccessfully) w/ lineups and appears to be somewhat "in over his head" at this point. If you're a regular client of mine, then you know I've been making a veritable "killing" taking teams playing the second of back to back road games this season. That's the situation the Clips find themselves in here and will be the underlying theme of this entire three-game report. Being on the road shouldn't bother LA much tonight as they are a fantastic 12-4 ATS their past 16 visits to the Windy City. The bottom line here is that the Bulls are just an average team right now. 8* LA Clippers |
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12-10-15 | Hawks +7 v. Thunder | Top | 94-107 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (8:05 ET): Here we go again w/ another team playing the second of back to back road games. This time it's the Hawks, who last night went into Dallas and pulled out an impressive 98-95 win as slight two-point favorites. One might think that result makes them prone for a letdown here, but I'll disagree and given how generous the oddsmakers are being, it's an appropriate time to take advantage. The Hawks beat Oklahoma City, in Atlanta, 106-100 as a three-point dog just ten days ago, so this line definitely looks inflated. The Thunder have covered just three of their last 12 games overall. Take the points. At this point in the season, it's difficult to make "heads or tails" with the Hawks. It's a much improved Eastern Conference and coming into the season, I think everybody (myself included) felt regression was somewhat inevitable following LY's stunning 60-win campaign. But I don't see any reason this team can't still finish second in the Conference behind Cleveland. Defense was the key last night as they held the Mavericks to just 36% shooting, the lowest percentage all season by an opponent. That being said, in each of their last three victories, the opposition has been below 40 percent overall. You don't find this Atlanta team as an underdog all that often, especially in this price range, so I say let's take advantage. Meanwhile, I think it's become quite clear where the Thunder fit in the Western Conference pecking order. Clearly, they are not as good as the Warriors or Spurs, but it's a weakened West this year and I'd be stunned if the Thunder didn't finish in third place overall. Still though, the jury is still out on the Billy Donovan hire as many of the same issues exist (offensively) that were there under Scott Brooks. The Thunder did roll into Memphis and destroy the Grizzlies Tuesday night, 125-88, but that particular opponent has been strangely prone to getting blown out all season. It's unlikely that OKC will duplicate it's 56 percent (season-high!) shooting from that game here and defensively this is a squad that still gives up 101.6 points per game. They are just 3-4 SU/2-5 ATS vs. teams w/ a winning record this season. 8* Atlanta |
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12-10-15 | Iowa +7.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 82-83 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
8* Iowa (7:30 ET): While the Hawkeyes' football team just had its hope of an unbeaten season wrecked by Michigan State in the Big 10 Championship Game, the school's basketball team can now play the role of "spoiler" itself as they get set to face unbeaten in-state rival Iowa State. Iowa isn't too shabby itself, however, coming in at 7-2 SU w/ the only two losses coming in Florida to Notre Dame and Dayton and both were close. This will not be their first "true" road game of the season as already Fran McCaffery's team has gone to Marquette and won by 28 (as just four-point favorites). This will obviously be a much tougher challenge, but note I went against ISU earlier in the week, taking Buffalo +22, and came away w/ the ATS win. Take the points again here. Iowa has not won in Ames in six years and last year lost to the Cyclones at home, 90-75, as 5.5-point favorites. That loss snapped a 31-game home win streak for the Hawkeyes over non-conference competition, so this is a big revenge spot for them. They shot the ball very poorly in LY's meeting, just 39.4 percent overall from the floor, while ISU was at 53.1 percent (including 12-27 from 3-pt range). Even factoring in the change of venue, I wouldn't expect the respective shooting percentages to be that far apart tonight. Iowa has averaged 86.9 PPG during its four-game win streak, admittedly against lesser competition, but there's been only one game all season that they didn't top 75 points (loss to Notre Dame), so they do have the firepower to stick w/ the favored Cyclones here. This will also certainly be the toughest test of the season so far for Iowa State, a team that had to replace a high-profile HC in the offseason (Fred Hoiberg) that went to the NBA (Bulls). Two games ago, against North Dakota State, they led by only two w/ 12 minutes remaining. So, a 20-point final margin of victory was a tad bit misleading. So too was the 84-63 win over Buffalo Monday as the Cyclones led by just one w/ just over 13 minutes remaining. They will not be able to be so "casual" w/ tonight's opponent, who is 3-0 ATS the L3 times it has been a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. As mentioned in Monday's analysis, ISU doesn't get to the FT line enough and I'm projecting Iowa to have a big advantage in rebounding here. Also, the fact the Hawkeyes are allowing just 28.9 % shooting from 3-pt range should serve them well. 8* Iowa |
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12-09-15 | Magic +4 v. Suns | Top | 104-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
8* Orlando (9:05 ET): Again, it's back to the well w/ a team playing in the second of B2B road games. This time, it's the Magic, who are coming off an impressive 85-74 win in Denver last night. No team has been better than Orlando at the betting window this season, not even Golden State. The Magic are now 14-6-1 ATS overall and that includes a sterling 10-3 mark as an underdog w/ six outright wins. Getting points here makes them a great value in my estimation as the struggling Suns return home having dropped eight of their L10 games. They won both the first and last game of a six-game swing out East, the latter coming at the buzzer in Chicago, 103-101 as six-point pups. I don't see them being as lucky here as teams returning home after such a long trip typically struggle their first game back at home. Take the points. Orlando, meanwhile, is trending in the opposite direction as they have won six of seven (6-0-1 ATS!) and their only loss during that time came by two points Saturday against the Clippers (pushed as two-point dogs). Whether folks simply aren't paying attention or it's simply the stink of the post-Dwight Howard years, this is a very good under the radar team right now. Sure, it will be difficult to duplicate last night's season best effort on the defensive end as they held the Nuggets to just 74 points on 33.3% shooting. But, at the same time, you can expect improvement offensively as the Magic were just 1 of 16 from three-point range vs. the Nuggets. The discrepancy from last night in terms of offensive production (compared to YTD averages) was far greater than any discrepancy in defensive numbers as opponents are shooting just 41.8 percent for the season against Orlando. The Magic are also unlikely to turn the ball over 20 times again like they did last night as well. Phoenix, meanwhile, has major issues on the defensive end as they give up 105.2 PPG, one of the worst averages in the entire league (only four teams worse). They've played nothing but close games of late, in fact, each of their last six contests have been decided by five points or fewer. So, there's no real reason to want to lay points w/ this bunch right now, especially w/ the defensive issues. The Magic are simply the better team right now. 8* Orlando |
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12-09-15 | UNLV v. Wichita State -6 | Top | 50-56 | Push | 0 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
10* Wichita State (9:00 ET): Do not make the mistake of judging Wichita State by its disappointing record. Instead, remember that this was a Final Four team three years ago and and one that has gone 62-4 SU in the regular season the last two years. Injuries have played a significant role in this season's disappointing start. Most notably, senior Fred VanVleet missed all three games of the Advocare Invitational (in Florida) and the result was the team dropping all three games. But VanVleet returned to the lineup Saturday as WSU picked up a big-time road win over an always gritty St. Louis team, 68-53 as 6.5-pt chalk. With VanVleet back, I think this team is ready to roll, starting w/ a visit from UNLV Wednesday. Lay the points. This will be UNLV's first "true" road game of the season, although technically they did play D-II Chaminade in the Maui Invitational. The Rebels cashed for me last Friday as they handed Oregon its first loss of the season, in Vegas. That was an impressive win as they led the Ducks by double digits most of the way (biggest lead = 20 points) and were actually a slight dog. They shot 43.5 percent from three-point range, which was huge. It also helped that Oregon shot just 32.4% themselves and didn't score a single point over the game's final 3:30. While it was the Rebels' second upset victory over a ranked opponent in the L3 games, this shapes up as their toughest test to date. Over the L3 seasons, Dave Rice's team is just 7-23 SU as a dog, by the way. Sure, I was pretty complimentary of Rice's Rebels when I took them against Oregon, plus they cashed for me in Maui, taking points, against UCLA. But, when healthy, I like this Wichita State team a lot more than all previous UNLV opponents. Yes, transfer Anton Grady is still out with a concussion. But, at the risk of beating a dead horse, VanVleet is the key cog here. Also, there is a rumor that Connor Frankamp, who has been ineligible due to grades, surprisingly could make his season debut here. That would be a huge plus. This is a team that was preseason Top 10, has only played two home games and had to battle through injuries. They are undervalued in this spot. 10* Wichita State |
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12-09-15 | Lakers v. Wolves -6 | Top | 122-123 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Tonight, HAS to be the night, right? The T'wolves are now an unfathomably bad 2-9 SU and 1-10 ATS at home following another close loss on Monday, 110-106 to the Clippers. They are now in danger of a winless homestand (tonight is fourth game) and the previous three were all decided by six points or less. They've blown back to back second half leads, the first coming against Portland (led by 17 in the third quarter) and then a three point lead in the final minute to the Clippers (gave up 39 pts in the fourth quarter). All things considered, you might be surprised to find the T'wolves favored and even more surprised that I'm willing to lay the number here, but the Lakers are the "gift that keeps on giving," and, in fact, the T'wolves have already beaten them once this season. My strategy of taking teams playing the second of B2B road games has been fairly "foolproof" this season, so much so that even the Lakers cashed in the role Monday night in Toronto. Catching a generous 13.5 points, they lost 103-92, but that's where the positivism ends with this awful team. They are 3-17 SU for the year and have dropped 10 of 11 overall. All but one of those L10 losses have come by double digits! Kobe Bryant's shooting has descended into the abyss, to the point where it's absolutely fair to call him the worst shooter in the entire NBA. He's shooting just 31 percent overall the L5 games, almost identical to his overall season average (30.6%!), which is beyond atrocious. Speaking of atrocious, there's the Lakers on the defensive end as they've allowed 100+ points in 11 straight games. These two faced off in the season opener and it was Minnesota coming away with a 112-111 win as three-point dogs. However, close games generally haven't gone the T'wolves way this season as they have only two other wins by five points or less all season (both at home). Their last four losses have come by a total of 21 points. But we shouldn't have to worry about any of that here as the Lakers are being outscored by 11 PPG on the road this season. Lay the points. 8* Minnesota |
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12-09-15 | Rockets +3.5 v. Wizards | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
8* Houston (7:05 ET): We're going back to the well this evening w/ two more teams playing in the second of B2B road games that are being undervalued. (Portland was the latest winner in this role last night). First up, we have the Rockets, who just last year had the top ATS mark (59.2%) in the league. That certainly isn't the case this year as they are down to 31.8% (worst in the league!) after a SU/ATS loss last night in Brooklyn. They had won and covered three straight prior, but that was also after closing November in disastrous fashion (1-10 ATS). Tonight, they find themselves in the Nation's Capital to face off w/ another disappointing team, the Wizards, who are equally awful defensively. This is a good matchup for Houston. Take the points. The Rockets clearly entered this season overvalued based on last year's run to the Western Conference Finals. More often than not, they've been favored and the result there has been a 4-11 mark at the betting window in that role. But, in the more uncommon role of underdog, they are 3-4 - both SU and ATS, which isn't terrible. The last time we found them taking points was last Friday in Dallas and they pulled the outright upset there, 100-96 as five-point pups. They followed that up w/ a 120-113 win (-3) over Sacramento. But last night, many of their "old" problems resurfaced, namely James Harden turning the ball over too much (while scoring a season-low 10 pts) and just plain bad defense. As a team, Houston gave it away 24 times and they allowed the Nets to shoot 55.6% from the floor. That simply should not happen and I'll look for improvement across the board tonight. This game has the chance to be one of the highest scoring NBA games of the year. Just like the Rockets, the Wizards have been terrible defensively, giving up 106.3 PPG here at home. Interestingly, despite the faster pace of play, Washington ranks in the bottom 10 in the league in terms of offensive efficiency as well. Two nights ago, the team did go into Miami and pull off a surprising 114-103 upset (despite allowing 59% shooting). That was just the third time all year that the Wiz shot 50% (or better) in a game, however, and they are 0-3 ATS this season off a SU win as a dog (no B2B wins in three weeks!). Houston is 0-7 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite themselves, so something has to give. I say it's the Rockets that cover here. 8* Houston |
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12-08-15 | Warriors v. Pacers +6 | Top | 131-123 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
8* Indiana (7:05 ET): As I've mentioned in previous writeups, no team in NBA history has ever swept a road trip of at least seven games. But for 22-0 Golden State, it's "four down, three more to go" as they continue this incredible, record-setting start to the season. You'll recall that I went against them Saturday when they were laying seven points in Toronto and the margin was never greater than three (either way) over the final nine minutes of the fourth quarter there. The following day (Sunday) I was correct in calling the Warriors "undervalued" (in the second game of a B2B) at Brooklyn and after a slow start, they ended up blowing the Nets out, 114-98 as 10-pt chalk. I think tonight's game at Indiana shapes up a lot like the one in Toronto and I'm taking the points. The pressure is starting to mount for Golden State and I expect a lot of people to wisely start fading them until they finally lose a game (which obviously will happen). Going back to November 19th, they are 8-2 against the spread and their YTD +14.9 per game point differential is the best in league history through 22 games. While there's been only one stretch all season where they played three straight "close games" (meaning decided by single digits), over the L4, they've alternated close and blowout wins. Two of those last four (Utah, Toronto) were decided by just three points each. If there's one hole to poke in the Warriors' impressive resume, it's that they are allowing 104.4 PPG on the road. Indiana will be the best team Golden State has faced so far this season. Remember that the Western Conference has taken a collective step back this year, in spite of the Warriors (and Spurs) dominance. I have the Pacers rated ahead of Toronto (from a power ratings perspective), who gave the Warriors two of their toughest games of the season. Indiana has been covering spreads too; they went 11-1 ATS in November. But after opening December w/ an impressive road win over the Clippers, they've now dropped B2B games (SU/ATS) at Portland/Utah. So there's plenty of motivation here, not just to knock off the unbeaten Warriors, but to bounce back as well. Indiana is 6-0 ATS this season when playing on exactly two days rest and 7-0 ATS when taking on teams w/ a wining SU record. They are one of the few teams that can keep pace w/ the Warriors' scoring as they've averaged 112.8 points their L8 games. 8* Indiana |
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12-08-15 | Blazers +9 v. Cavs | Top | 100-105 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
10* Portland (7:05 ET): This is a classic spot where I feel the majority of bettors will be going one way and I'll be going in the opposite direction. Cleveland is back at home after losing three straight (two on the road), the latest defeat coming Saturday in Miami when LeBron James decided to rest (was the 2nd game of a B2B). This is their longest losing streak of the year and in comes a Portland team that lost last night in Milwaukee. Most will call for the bounce back here, but I think the number is inflated due to the fact the visitors are w/o rest. If you've been a regular client of mine, then you I've really been "raking in the dough" with this strategy all season long, even cashing the Lakers last night. Take the points. Remember that Cleveland is short-handed. It's not as bad as LY's NBA Finals when they were w/o BOTH Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving, but the latter still hasn't played a game this season, nor has fellow backcourt mate Iman Shumpert. The lack of depth is starting to show as LeBron is having to carry the team to no avail. He bailed them out w/ a game winner vs. Brooklyn, here at home, back on November 28th and then almost single-handedly led a rally last Friday against a bad New Orleans team. Overall, the Cavs have lost four in a row ATS and are just 7-13 at the betting window for the season (5-12 when favored). Their early season schedule was REALLY weak as they played teams like Philadelphia, New York and Milwaukee multiple times. At one point, they failed to cover eight straight games. I realize they're 9-1 SU at home, but even so, their scoring average is just +6.5 PPG here. They are 0-5 ATS when playing w/ exactly two days rest. Portland lost by only two at Milwaukee last night as they fell apart late. The loss dropped them to 0-7 SU this season when failing to score 100 points, so we clearly know the threshold that we'll need tonight. Cleveland has actually been pretty solid of late defensively, but is tied for 12th in terms of efficiency and had real problems w/ the pace of Washington last week. I'm actually going to be at this game and while it's never fun having to root for the road team, I see the Blazers staying within the number. 10* Portland |
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12-08-15 | West Virginia v. Virginia -3.5 | Top | 54-70 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
8* Virginia (7:00 ET): We continue to target the dwindling list of remaining unbeatens in the country (now down to 12 after Villanova lost yday) w/ a play here on the first game of the Jimmy V Classic (takes place at Madison Square Garden). If you haven't been paying attention much this season, then you might be surprised to learn that it is West Virginia, not their counterparts to the East, who comes in w/ the unblemished mark. WVU is both unbeaten straight up (7-0) and against the pointspread (4-0), but tonight marks - by far - their toughest test to date as #10 Virginia has been on a roll ever since suffering their lone defeat, 73-68 at George Washington back on November 16th. Lay the points in this one. This shapes up as a fascinating matchup, but it's a bad one for the unbeaten Mountaineers, who feast off turnovers. No team forces more per game (23.4) than WVU, but the problem here is that no team in the country turns it over less than does Virginia (7.4). I look for the methodical pace at which Tony Bennett's Cavaliers play at to give the Mounties fits all game long. WVU will not like the pace at which this game is likely to be played. Note that Virginia is also outstanding at forcing turnovers (21% of opponents' possessions!) and because of the slower pace they operate at, that number might be more impressive than WVU's 31% turnover rate. Bob Huggins' crew has not played a ranked opponent yet, nor have they played a "true" road game. One thing that present and future Virginia opponents will not want to hear is that the Cavs appear to be much improved on the offensive end of the floor this year. They are averaging 77.1 points per game so far. Four players are shooting better than 40 percent from three-point range and that may determine the outcome of this game as WVU is allowing just 22 percent shooting from behind the arc so far. Meanwhile, WVU shoots only 28.5% from three-point range itself and that's going to be a major issue here because few, if any, teams in the country defend on the interior quite like Virginia does. Against teams averaging 77+ PPG, the Cavs are 12-3 SU, 10-4-1 ATS the L3 seasons. 8* Virginia |
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12-08-15 | Houston v. Rhode Island -7.5 | Top | 57-67 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
10* Rhode Island (7:00 ET): The Rhodies are off a tough, two-point loss to in-state rival Providence their last time out, which was actually one of the better College Basketball games of the season. The game was decided at the buzzer and while the Rams lost, I was still impressed at how they performed in light of the fact that this is a team that lost its best player (E.C. Matthews) for the remainder of the season. Both of the Rams' losses this season have come to ranked opponents (also Maryland). Tonight, they play their third straight home game against a team that comes in unbeaten, but is nowhere close to even being ranked, that being Houston. My strategy of late has been to target this dwindling list of remaining unbeatens (just 12 left after Villanova lost yday) in College Hoops, so lay the points here. Don't be too impressed by Houston's 5-0 record. They've yet to even leave campus and only two of the opponents were of the lined variety. Six days ago, they beat Murray State by 15 (were -7.5 at the betting window). It was a pretty ridiculous shooting display from the Cougars as they connected on 64% of their overall attempts (10 for 15 from 3-pt range) en route to 93 points (had 51 by halftime). Needless to say, I would expect a dropoff tonight. Again, this is a team that's yet to leave campus this season. The previous two seasons have seen them go a pathetic 5-18 SU in road/neutral site games. Besides Murray State, the only other lined opponent the Cougars have faced is Louisiana Monroe. Meanwhile, Rhode Island has definitely stepped up in class a few times this season and while some of those haven't worked out, I've been impressed nonetheless. They are allowing just 59.7 PPG and two of their three losses have been by three points or less (both of those at home). They are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS as a home favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range, so I like the way they've been priced here. All but one of the Rams' victories this season has been by double digits. With a home game on deck vs. Ben Simmons and LSU, the road team may actually be looking past tonight's opponent, which obviously would be a huge mistake. 10* Rhode Island |
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12-07-15 | Buffalo +22 v. Iowa State | Top | 63-84 | Win | 100 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (9:00 ET): Only 13 unbeaten teams are left in the country (I'm proud to say that I went against Davidson yday and came away w/ an easy win & cover!) and that list is guaranteed to drop by at least one tonight because Oklahoma plays Villanova. I'm staying away from that one, but will continue to target the remaining list as Iowa State is laying a big number to a battle-tested Buffalo team here. While an outright win here is extremely unlikely (Cyclones are 33-2 SU L35 home games), I feel the number is inflated due to ISU's unblemished mark. Note that Buffalo just went into Duke two days ago and (just barely) grabbed the cash as 24.5-pt underdogs. There's been virtually no adjustment by the oddsmakers here, so go ahead and take the points yet again! Iowa State really hasn't been tested this year. They've played a few neutral site affairs, but never against an opponent you'd think would give them any kind of real trouble. They had to scrape by Colorado in the opener, winning only 68-62 as 10.5-pt chalk, but since then have covered all four lined games. They are off a 20-point win over North Dakota State here in Ames last Tuesday, meaning they've had a lot of time off between games and with a big game on deck (vs. Iowa) three days from now, tonight's game sets up as a proverbial "look ahead." Remember that this is a team that lost it's very good head coach (Fred Hoiberg) to the NBA in the offseason. There are issues both getting to the free throw line (averaging only 15 attempts per game) and in rebounding (only 8 offensive RPG). Also, the team's best player (Georges Niang) suffered a thigh injury in the last game and won't be 100% tonight. Something else to keep in mind here is that the final result (83-63) over North Dakota State (NCAA Tournament team LY) was not as lopsided as it may appear. It was only a two-point game w/ 12 minutes to go in the game. So, while, this isn't the friendliest spot for the underdog by any means, they certainly have great chance at keeping this one close. They too had to replace a high-profile HC in the offseason (Bobby Hurley) after going to the NCAA Tournament. But while they've lost all three road games by double digits, they are 3-0 ATS L3 times taking 12.5 or more points from the oddsmakers and are 5-1 ATS L6 when playing on exactly one day's rest. 10* Buffalo |
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12-07-15 | Clippers v. Wolves +1 | Top | 110-106 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 2 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): The T'wolves atypical home-road dichotomy continued with Saturday's painful 109-103 loss to Portland. I say "painful" because this young team blew a 17-pt third quarter lead and quite frankly it was a game they "should" have had. (In the interest of full disclosure, I was on them.) But the fourth quarter was "all Blazers" as they shot 67 percent compared to just 32 percent for Minnesota. While still a perfect 9-0 ATS on the road this season, the T'wolves are a horrible 1-9 ATS at home (2-8 straight up!) and that discrepancy is about to start rectifying itself. Right? Here, we find the team essentially as a Pick 'Em against a Clippers team that is w/o Chris Paul (maybe JJ Redick too) and I'm going to back them. These teams already faced off once this year and because the game took place in Los Angeles, we know that Minnesota covered. They lost 107-99, but were getting 10 points from the oddsmakers in that one. That was the start of the current three-game losing streak for the T'wolves (every loss by single digits). Not only did Blake Griffin score 26 points for the Clippers in the win, but Paul contributed an additional 20 and Redick had 18. If the latter two don't play, the Clips need to find a way to replace that lost production and I'm not sure how they do that. Nor do I feel that we'll see a repeat of their 52% overall shooting from that game. Meanwhile, Minnesota played that first meeting w/o the services of PG Ricky Rubio. "Any time a starter is out, it's difficult to win," said T'wolves HC Sam Mitchell. Agreed. Starting in Rubio's place was Zach LaVine and he promptly missed his first six shots. Incredibly, the Clippers have now beaten the Timberwolves 14 straight times. That's the longest current head to head win streak in the league, save for Atlanta's 15-game run at the expense of Sacramento. Eventually, all streaks must end and in the case of the T'wolves, they have a chance to put that AND their poor record at home "to bed." Note that the Clippers have played only six road games this season (fewest among Western Conference teams) and won only two of them. They're giving up 108 PPG away from home thus far. 10* Minnesota |
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12-07-15 | Lakers +13.5 v. Raptors | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 20 h 32 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (7:35 ET): Kobe Bryant and the Lakers are just terrible. I watched PTI the other day and following Bryant's 31-point effort in Washington (a rare LA win!), they had an honest-to-god debate on whether or not he should actually reconsider his decision to retire. What? This Lakers team is 3-17 straight up and headed "nowhere fast" w/ Bryant shooting a horrific 2 for 15 in last night's blowout (111-91) loss to the Pistons. Now that I've got that rant out of the way, I'm actually still going to make an argument to take the points w/ the Lakers tonight. First off, it's a big number and a common theme for me is that teams playing the second of B2B road games are typically being undervalued (like Golden State yday!). Secondly, it's unlikely that the Lakers will play THAT poorly again. Thirdly, Toronto is in a letdown spot after coming up short at home against the Warriors Saturday. Take the points. I was on the Raptors two days ago as they gave the Warriors arguably their biggest scare of the entire season. After Toronto took the outright lead w/ just over nine minutes to go, the "diff" was never more than three points the rest of the way in an excellent game. Kyle Lowry scored his career-high (41 points) there, but it was not enough. In my analysis for that game, I mentioned just how prolific the Raptors have been as underdogs this season (now 7-1 ATS), but guess what? That also means they're just 6-6 ATS when favored (7-5 straight up!) and tonight is their "biggest ask" from the oddsmakers, meaning the most points they've had to lay in a game all season. Shockingly, the Raptors are just 4-4 SU at home this season. As for the Lakers, obviously they're not good. But pride has to kick in at some point and I just don't see them getting blown out in B2B games. These teams did meet earlier this season, in LA, and Toronto won by 11. So, on the surface, it doesn't look like the Lakers are being tremendously undervalued here, but they are 3-1 ATS playing in the second of B2B's, including an outright win in Washington last Wednesday. Earlier in the year, they almost beat Orlando (lost by 2) in the exact same situation. 8* LA Lakers |
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12-06-15 | Warriors -10 v. Nets | Top | 114-98 | Win | 100 | 16 h 9 m | Show |
10* Golden State (6:05 ET): The Warriors improved to 21-0 SU w/ yday's 112-109 win in Toronto, tied for their "closest call" of the season, a game I went against them and easily covered the +7.5 point spread. But while history says they are likely to lose on this seven-game road trip (no team in NBA history has ever swept a road trip of 7+ games), it won't be here. If you're a regular client of mine, then you already know I believe teams playing the second of B2B road games are typically underrated by the oddsmakers and that's what we have here as my own personal power ratings say Golden State should be about a 19.5-pt favorite, despite being on the road, so I'm laying the number here. Now, Brooklyn did give Golden State a bit of a scare back on November 14th, exactly three weeks ago. They took them to overtime (only time Warriors have been taken past regulation) and that was in Oakland. That, along w/ this being the second of B2B road games, has conspired to keep this line much lower than it should be, IMO. I just went against the Nets Friday night and that was an easy winner as they were blown out by the Knicks, 108-91 as 3.5-point dogs. They trailed 42-21 after just one quarter, so it was never even really a game. Despite Brooklyn coming in at 10-1 ATS their previous 11, that was what I expected as they are still one of the league's worst teams. Their -6.8 per game point differential is tied for the third worst in all of basketball (only 76ers and Lakers worse) and quite simply I can't see them playing Golden State tough for a second time. Of the Warriors' 21 victories, 14 have come by a double digit margin. Their average per game point differential is a whopping +14.8 and there have been only two instances all year where they won consecutive games by single digits. Toronto is a very good team (why I took them!). Unlike that spot, where there was a ton of value on the Raptors (were +7.5 vs. +9.5 in Oakland), such value simply does not exist here as Brooklyn was +16.5 for the first matchup. Golden State is 4-1 ATS playing in the second of back to backs this year & it should be "business as usual" this evening. 10* Golden State |
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12-06-15 | Davidson v. North Carolina -13.5 | Top | 65-98 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
8* North Carolina (6:00 ET): We're down to only 14 remaining unbeatens in College Basketball and we'll continue to target this dwindling list of teams moving forward. One of the two in action Sunday is Davidson (other is St. Mary's), but Steph Curry's alma mater is a huge underdog as they travel to Chapel Hill to take on a North Carolina team that is now at full strength and that means trouble for the opposition. The Tar Heels treated me well earlier this week in a big-time win over another foe that came in unbeaten, Maryland, winning 89-81. That game marked the return of Marcus Paige, who wound up leading them w/ 20 points. Davidson has not performed well in the past vs. Top 25 opponents, losing 22 of 24 such situations. Lay the points. Paige, the co-preseason Player of the Year in the ACC, clearly makes UNC significantly better. That's a scary thought for the rest of the nation as the Tar Heels opened 5-1 SU w/o him, every win coming by double digits. Remember that this was the preseason #1 team in the country. Speaking of double-digit victories, that's the margin Roy Williams' team has won by over Davidson each of the L2 years. It was an 18-point victory at a neutral site last year and a 12-point win here in Chapel Hill back in 2013. This is the best Tar Heels team the Wildcats will have faced over that span. UNC has topped 80 pts in five of its seven games and their average margin of victory here at home is +18.3 points per game. Davidson is coming off a 100+ pt effort against Charlotte in its last game, so they certainly are going to catch a lot of respect from the oddsmakers and bettors alike. However, today represents a huge step up in class from previous opponents. I understand that the Wildcats are a preposterously good 22-5 ATS their L27 road games, but they are also 3-32 straight up their L35 vs. ACC opponents, including 0-6 the L3 seasons. While coming in at 5-0 SU, Davidson's first three wins all came by six points or less over the likes of UCF, College of Charleston and Mercer. Bob McKillop's team isn't very good defensively (174th in efficiency) and Steph Curry will not be walking through that door. 8* North Carolina |
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12-05-15 | Blazers v. Wolves -2 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -102 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): How interesting that the one favorite I'm going w/ in this 3-game report is Minnesota and it qualifies as the highest rated play of the trio! You want to talk interesting dichotomies? Well, so far this season, the T'wolves are a perfect 9-0 ATS on the road (6-3 straight up), but only 1-8 ATS (2-7 SU) at home. That's due to even out. Remember that they finished w/ the worst record in the entire league last year, so it's surprising that tonight will mark the fourth time they've been favored to win this season. The previous three have all been here at home and they've failed to cover all three, but they're undervalued tonight in a rematch of one of the teams that got them, Portland. Lay the small number. When Portland came to the Twin Cities back on November 2nd, the T'wolves were actually 2-0 SU/ATS having opened the season w/ B2B road wins over the lowly Lakers and Nuggets. So they were a little bit vulnerable laying points for the first time all season. It was a close game, 106-101 in favor of the Blazers, and in fact Minnesota actually led the game 34-21 after the first quarter! What you may have forgotten is that was a very emotional game for the T'wolves players as they honored the late Flip Saunders prior to the game. That emotion eventually wore off and Portland took control. But given the way that game started, Minnesota certainly is capable of beating Portland, who is just 2-7 SU on the road otherwise. The next time Minnesota was favored to win here at home came against (at the time) winless Philadelphia and a seven-point spot proved to be a little too much in a 100-95 victory. From there, the T'wolves weren't favored again until their last time out when they lost here to Orlando, 96-93 as small 1.5-pt chalk. There they turned in their worst shooting percentage of the season against an opponent that wasn't Miami (37.7 percent). I'll call for a bounce back here (have had three days off!) and at the same time Portland is due to regress after a surprising 123-111 win over Indiana Thursday night. They shot 51.8 percent in that game, which was the first time in nearly a month they were over 50%. It's time for the T'wolves to start winning at home. 10* Minnesota |
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12-05-15 | Cavs +2 v. Heat | Top | 84-99 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:05 ET): When evaluating the Cavaliers, it's important to remember that they remain short-handed w/o Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert. Yet they are still only percentage points out of first place in the Eastern Conference, a spot they had actually held for much of this season before last night's disappointing overtime loss in New Orleans. After falling behind the Pelicans by as many as 13 in the fourth quarter, Cleveland went on a furious rally. Actually, scratch that. LeBron James went on a furious rally, scoring 21 of his team's 24 points to give them a three-point lead before New Orleans was able to force OT on a last second three-pointer. While "conventional wisdom" will say its tough for the Cavs to "get off the mat" after such a defeat, teams playing in the second of B2B road games are often undervalued and that's what we have here. Take the points. The Cavs already beat the Heat once this season, in Cleveland, 102-92 as 4.5-pt chalk. At the time, LeBron and company were 3-0 ATS. Now they stand at just 7-12 at the betting window. However, scoring 100+ points against Miami is no small feat. Defensively, the Heat are one of the top teams in the league and only four times since has an opponent topped the century mark against them. Not surprisingly, they've lost three of those, including 105-95 to Boston here at home Monday. They responded by pulling a minor upset of Oklahoma City on national TV Thursday, which I believe has only further served to inflate this line. Cleveland is right behind OKC in terms of offensive efficiency and I don't think is prone to the same kind of late game breakdowns we saw from the Thunder on Thursday. Miami, meanwhile, has offensive issues as they've topped 100 pts only two times since doing so twice in the first three games. Those two instances came against the Lakers and Kings, two of the worst defensive teams in the entire league. Following the high-profile win over the Thunder, I feel a letdown is inevitable for the Heat in this spot as not only are they 3-15 ATS following a SU win as a dog the L3 seasons, but also 0-6 ATS this year following a game vs. a non-conference opponents. The Cavs are 2-0 ATS as underdogs, a role they simply aren't in very often. Take advantage. 8* Cleveland |
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12-05-15 | Warriors v. Raptors +7.5 | Top | 112-109 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
8* Toronto (5:05 ET): Yep, I'm going to do it. "It" being step in front of the Golden State train. As you undoubtedly know, the Warriors come into Saturday a perfect 20-0 straight up (14-6 ATS) and they've made it look easy by outscoring foes by more than 17 points per 100 possessions! But looking at this seven-game road trip of theirs, you have to look for a potential slip-up as no team in NBA history has ever swept a trip of this length. Toronto isn't far behind Golden State at 12-7-1 against the spread and despite my personal power ratings saying that GSW should essentially be a double digit favorite in virtually every game, this spot looks to have the most potential for a slip up as it's an unusual 2:05 start time locally for the NBA champs. Take the points. Something you may not have noticed is there's a shift taking place in the NBA. No longer is the Western Conference vastly superior to the East. Maybe that's because of what the Warriors are doing to the rest of their brethren, but currently I would rate only three teams from the West in the top ten in the league. Toronto, who stayed within five points in the first meeting back on November 17th, is one of the best opponents GSW has faced all season and curiously the number here is almost as high as it was in Oakland when the Raptors covered (+9.5) in the 115-110 loss. Including that ATS win, the Raptors are a money-making 6-1 vs. the number in the underdog role this season and even more impressive is their perfect 6-0 ATS mark when taking on a team w/ a winning record. Now there is the matter of the Raptors being off an ugly outright loss here at home to Denver Thursday night. Perhaps they were looking ahead to this matchup, but the Nuggets (who were +10) came in and pulled a 106-105 upset. As embarrassing as it might have been to lose to a team that came in riding an eight-game losing streak, the key was Denver getting off to a fast start (made 7 of first 9 shots) en route to a 15-4 advantage they'd never relinquish (Toronto did make a furious 4Q rally) and them going a perfect 18 for 18 from the free throw line. I'm not going to even bother running through the Warriors' exploits, because we all know they're impressive, but eventually they have to slip up and I think the likelihood of them doing so here is greater than at any other time so far this season. 8* Toronto |
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12-05-15 | South Florida +19 v. South Carolina | Top | 63-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
8* South Florida (4:00 ET): There's somewhat of an interesting coaching connection here as South Florida's Orlando Antigua and South Carolina's Frank Martin are both of Hispanic origin and it was reported that only one time previous in the history of College Basketball has there been an instance of two such coaches matching wits. Clearly, as of right now, it is Martin who has his team in better shape. The Gamecocks come into Saturday's home game perfect, both straight up and against the spread. Meanwhile, USF is a disappointing 2-6 SU (2-2 ATS), but that's where the pointspread comes in and it is generous Saturday afternoon w/ the Bulls taking a ton of points. While Antigua's team has some bad losses on its resume already, the only team to beat them by the margin the oddsmakers are calling for here is Kentucky. So they are battle-tested and won't be intimidated by having to play in an SEC gym. Take the points. Antigua should be very familiar w/ the South Carolina program as he previously served as an assistant under Coach Cal at Kentucky. So far, it's been a bit of a rocky start in Tampa and the team is off a road loss Thursday to Delaware. Poor shooting hurt them there, but on the bright side they did show some defensive prowess in holding the Blue Hens to just 30.9 percent from the floor. That was actually the third time in the last four games (UK being the exception) where they held their opponent below 37% for the game. Doing so again here, against what is admittedly a superior opponent, will be critical. Consider that against Kentucky, the Bulls were 22-pt dogs (covered!), so by comparison this number looks inflated. South Carolina has won every game by double digits so far while typically dominating the boards and playing good defense, which is what you expect from a Frank Martin coached outfit. But the competition hasn't exactly been stiff. One could make a pretty compelling argument that the Gamecocks were pretty severely undervalued coming into the Paradise Jam Tournament, which they won, with three consecutive wins as single-digit chalk over Depaul, Hofstra and Tulsa. As a result, the market has now swung too far in the other direction as Monday, they were asked to lay only 18 to Western Carolina. Again, by comparison, this number looks to be inflated. 8* South Florida |
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12-05-15 | California v. Wyoming +6.5 | Top | 78-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
10* Wyoming (3:00 ET): This is a dangerous spot on the road for Cal, as they head to the high elevation of Laramie for what amounts to a Noon PT start time. It's also the Bears' first "true" road game of the season and keep in mind that both of their losses came in the only two games they had to leave campus. They were favored in each instance as well, just is the case here, losing as 4.5-point chalk to San Diego State and laying six to Richmond in Vegas. Meanwhile, the host Pokes have won all four home games so far (lost twice on the road) and are off their first road victory, beating Denver 68-52 as five-point dogs Wednesday. This is a revenge spot for them as LY they dropped an ugly 45-42 decision (were +4!) in Berkeley. Take the points. Including this season's results, Wyoming is 47-27 SU since the start of the 2013-14 season. They are 13-21 SU on the road, but an awesome 34-6 SU here at home, which is a pretty strong dichotomy. Interesting is that never during that time have they been in the +6.5 to +9 range here at the Arena-Auditorium. So either they've fallen off from LY's 25-10 campaign (made the NCAA Tournament) further than I think (not likely) or Cal is being drastically overrated by the oddsmakers here. I'm banking on the latter being true as Cal was ranked as high as 14th before they dropped B2B games. Wyoming dropped only two home games all of last season, both by single digits margins. They are 25-7 SU in the month of December under HC Larry Shyatt. Cal had defensive issues when they took their act to Vegas and that could be a major problem here today. I say that because Wyoming is averaging 83.5 PPG here in Laramie and has shot better than 50 percent from the floor in four of their first seven games. The Bears defense was a lot better Tuesday vs. Seattle, but still they failed to cover (as hefty 22.5-pt chalk) in a 66-52 win. Speaking of low-scoring victories, there was last year's meeting between these two where neither was able to even shoot 37% from the floor (was 16-15 at half!). The Cowboys' defense hasn't been quite as good so far this season, but it should be good enough here. That and the big-time home court edge keep them in this one to the finish. 10* Wyoming |
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12-04-15 | Oregon v. UNLV +2 | Top | 69-80 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
8* UNLV (11:00 ET): Oregon is the unbeaten team here, but as you know that means it's only a "matter of time" before they get handed their first loss as the number of teams w/o a blemish on their resume continues to dwindle (down to 18 after Kentucky lost last night). The Ducks have yet to leave the friendly confines of Eugene, but that all changes tonight w/ a visit to Vegas to play a UNLV team that finds itself in a number of favorable situations. The Rebels have lost just one time themselves, by two to UCLA in Maui, so it's been an impressive start for them as well, most notably an upset of Indiana (as eight-point dogs) before they left the Island. While this game doesn't take place in their home arena, that doesn't really take away any value of them still being on The Strip. Take the points. I thought that Dave Rice might have his best team in a while this season. That's why I took UNLV in its season opener and while that didn't pan out (won by only two over Cal Poly), they've looked extremely good ever since. They did cash for me (as 4-pt dogs) in the loss to UCLA and after the upset of Indiana, returned home to blow out Prarie View A&M by a score of 80-62. Four Rebels are scoring in double figures so far and while there were some injury concerns this week, having almost a full week to prepare for this game and get healthy is huge. Ben Carter (Oregon transfer) and Stephen Zimmerman Jr (NBA prospect) now both appear to be fine and even better is the fact that the team is a perfect 6-0 ATS when taking the floor on five or six days' rest the past two seasons. They are also an impressive 13-1 ATS after scoring 80+ points their last game! Oregon, while unbeaten, has its issues. Namely they turn the ball over roughly 17 times per game, which is one of the highest averages in the entire country. They've also been outrebounded each of the last two games. Twice in the last three games they've won close as a favorite, home games against Valparaiso and Fresno State. I would argue that tonight is their toughest test of the season, even more so than Baylor, as that game took place in Eugene. UNLV has topped 80 pts in four games this season as their offense has become far more efficient compared to 2014-15. They are also more efficient defensively and are forcing turnovers at a very high rate, which is huge here given Oregon's own TO problems. 8* UNLV |
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12-04-15 | Northern Illinois v. Missouri -4.5 | Top | 71-78 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
10* Missouri (8:00 ET): We're down to 18 teams w/o a loss in College Hoops and undoubtedly one of the weakest is this Northern Illinois team that arrives in Columbia Friday night to take on Mizzou. With the school's football team competing for a conference championship tonight, NIU hoops figures to have little support here, at the venue or at the betting window. They have played a really weak schedule to this point, including three non-lined opponents in its last four games. So, I would be careful about putting any stock into their numbers so far, particularly a scoring differential of +19.1 points per game. Honestly, I'm surprised the Huskies have even able to navigate such a weak schedule as they are still w/o starting PG Darrell Bowie. Missouri is more "battle-tested" and I look for them to hand NIU its first loss of the season. Lay the points. Mizzou is only 3-3 straight up, but has had to step up in competition several times already and that's responsible for those losses (dog in all three). A return home earlier this week led to a much needed 88-78 win over Arkansas State as Kim Anderson's team remained perfect on the season here in Columbia. The Tigers led the Red Wolves by as many as 24 early in the second half, so that 10-point final margin is even a little bit misleading as it really was a dominant performance from start to finish (13-0 run to open the game). Yes, its a young Tigers team (freshmen responsible for roughly 50% of scoring!), but that's the case w/ the Huskies as well who aren't far behind that number (41.8 percent). Despite being so young, Missouri is actually improved offensively compared to last season when they didn't even top 80 points once (already done it twice this year). That improvement will come in handy here against a Northern Illinois squad w/ misleading defensive numbers thanks to the aforementioned weak slate of previous opponents. The idea that teams will continue to shoot at only a 36.6 percent clip against NIU seems pretty far fetched to me. Mizzou has shot 49.4% in three home games so far, including 42.6% from three-point range (they also do a good job at getting to the FT line), so I look for them to run the visitors out of the gym here. 10* Missouri |
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12-04-15 | Nets v. Knicks -3 | Top | 91-108 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
10* New York (7:05 ET): In this battle for "city supremacy," I feel that one side is being drastically undervalued & that would be the Knicks, who are at home and laying only the standard three. One can only surmise that the reason for that is the Nets' recent surge at the betting window (10-1 ATS L11!), but what's not being taken into account (in my opinion) is their awful road play (1-10 SU). The Knicks might not be the playoff team that Charles Barkley claimed they'll be, but they are certainly an improved bunch from last year (how could they not be?) and own a far better YTD scoring margin than their counterparts from Brooklyn. This is also a massive revenge spot as they dropped all four meetings LY to the Nets. Lay the points. The Knicks cashed for me Wednesday night by blowing out a Sixers team that was coming off its first win of the season the night prior. Granted, Philly was w/o the suspended Jahlil Okafor there, but I don't think that mattered much as New York never trailed in the game and entered the fourth quarter w/ a massive 23-point advantage (which is what I expected). It was arguably the Knicks' finest effort since a 122-97 win over Milwaukee in the season opener (another time I was on them!) and also much needed as the team had previously dropped four in a row, SU and ATS. This Kristaps Porzingis (#4 overall DC) continues to impress as he just turned in his ninth double-double of the season Weds night. Arguably, he's already usurped Carmelo Anthony as the Knicks best player. As stated before, Brooklyn is just awful out on the road. They are 1-10 SU (but 7-4 ATS) away from the Barclays Center w/ an average scoring differential of -9.5 points per game. The oddsmakers had gotten appropriately generous w/ them following a dreadful 0-7 SU/1-6 ATS start, however, that's clearly not the case here. It would be somewhat unfair to compare the Nets to the Sixers, but Brooklyn still has a bottom five scoring differential in the league and has been favored only one time all season (lost to the Lakers). They've lost six in a row away from home while allowing 109 PPG, so any past Knicks' offensive issues here at MSG should be rectified. 10* New York |
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12-03-15 | Pacers -2 v. Blazers | Top | 111-123 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
10* Indiana (10:05 ET): Currently, I have the Pacers rated as the top team in the Eastern Conference (don't think that will last though) as they are coming off a phenomenal November. December got off to a pretty nice start as well as they went into LA and beat the Clippers (who were admittedly w/o Chris Paul) 103-91 as two-point favorites. That puts Indiana at 12-2 SU/ATS since the start of last month and shockingly tonight's opponent (Portland) is getting the same amount of respect a better Clippers team did last night. The only two times Indiana has failed to cover during this streak came when laying big numbers, the two biggest lines they've faced all season in fact. That's not a concern here. While Indiana has been surging, Portland has been fading. The Blazers have dropped 10 of 13 overall and I went against them Tuesday night as they blew a second half lead and lost in overtime (here at home) to Dallas as a small favorite. I've previously spoken at length regarding the amount of talent this team lost from last year (four starters!), most notably LaMarcus Aldridge. That puts an undue burden on lone returning starter Damian Lillard as well as the reserves to contribute. Well, Lillard scored 25 points to go along w/ 10 assists and eight rebounds against the Mavs while the bench contributed a season-high 73 points and that still wasn't enough. What now? The pressure placed on Lillard has been felt most at "crunch time" as he is shooting a woeful 26 percent from the floor in the fourth quarter this season. After missing the playoffs entirely last season, the Pacers came into 2015-16 w/ high hopes and Paul George (missed almost all of LY due to injury) back in the fold. Things got off to a rocky 0-3 SU/ATS start, but since that time they have posted a per game scoring differential of +10.6, which is second in the league only to (obviously) Golden State. If you're a regular client of mine, then you know I believe teams playing in the second of B2B road games are often undervalued and that is the case here as there can be no doubt as to who the better team is in this particular matchup. Lay the short number. 10* Indiana |
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12-03-15 | Western Michigan v. James Madison -6 | Top | 57-63 | Push | 0 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
10* James Madison (7:00 ET): Western Michigan is the underdog here and all things considered they've been doing a pretty decent job of competing throughout the early part of the schedule. The Broncos lost projected leading scorer Connar Tava, a senior, to a broken foot right before the season began. Not only did Tava lead the team in scoring last year, he led in rebounding and assists. So, he's a critical loss. The Broncos have managed to "tread water," going 3-4 SU overall by alternating wins and losses (or rather, losses & wins). They are off a three-point loss Sunday (to Mercer) in a neutral site affair where they allowed 52.2 percent shooting. While WMU has yet to drop B2B games this season, I believe that comes to an end tonight as they visit a James Madison squad that's overdue for a big night at home. The favored Dukes come in off B2B road wins over Marshall and Radford. They are now a perfect 3-0 SU in "true" road games, having opened the season w/ an 87-75 outright win (as 9-pt pups) at Richmond. However, "life on the homefront" hasn't gone nearly as well. All three lined home games have resulted in non-covers, dropping them to 5-18 ATS the L3 seasons here at the Convocation Center. Two of those non-covers this season have actually been outright losses, to Oral Roberts and Tenn Martin, as seven and 11 pt favorites respectively. However, they have a great opportunity to rectify that poor record as their next seven games are all at home. While it ended up being a close call Monday vs. Radford, note that JMU actually led by as many as 21 points in the second half. That followed a similarly dominant performance on the road as the Dukes dominated Marshall, leading by 23 at halftime. Can that level of play continue here at home? Of course, it can. The Dukes have had no problem scoring this year (78.5 PPG), but the key moving forward lies on the defensive end of the floor, particularly guarding the three-point line. In four home games, opponents have shot 43.5% from behind the arc against JMU, which seems like an unsustainable percentage. Just about every Western Michigan game has been close this year, but they are 0-2 SU in "true" road games and I believe "due" to get blown out. The loss of Tava will eventually catch up w/ the Broncos, who have a negative assist to turnover ratio this season and trailed the entire way vs. Mercer after falling into an early 24-9 hole. 10* James Madison |
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12-02-15 | Gonzaga -10 v. Washington State | Top | 69-60 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
8* Gonzaga (11:00 ET): You'll have to stay up late to watch this one, but I'm confident that tonight will see Washington State lose for the first time. Only 24 teams in the country are still w/o a loss as Wazzu is likely one of the weakest as the Cougars have played just four games, none of which have come against any team of consequence. Now, in comes #13 Gonzaga, who is coming off B2B tough games against ranked opponents. They split the pair, losing to Texas A&M (by one point) and then beating UConn (by three) in the Bahamas. This is a drop in class for the Bulldogs, who are surprisingly just 4-13 ATS in head to head meetings w/ Wash St, including 1-7 here in Pullman. But that's because they've previously faced spreads much larger than this one. With the SU result a mere formality in my book, I'll lay the points. As is always the case, many are calling this one of Mark Few's "best teams ever" in Spokane. I'm not sure about that, but the Zags did hold an impressive 16-point lead at halftime against UConn (led by as many as 21 in the second half) before foul trouble took Domantas Sabonis out of the game and allowed UConn to stage a late rally. Foul trouble was again an issue for Sabonis (eventually fouled out) in the loss to A&M, a game Gonzaga still led much of the way. That game was largely determined at the free throw line w/ the Aggies making 11 of 14 and the 'Zags only 4 of 11. Even w/ this being the first "true" road game of the season, I expect the foul issue to be less of a factor tonight. To this point, Washington State has taken on: Northern Arizona, Idaho State, CS-Los Angeles and Texas Southern. So, yes, I'd say this is a large step up in class for them. CS-Los Angeles is a Division II team while the other three are a combined 5-12 straight up this year. Taking on Top 25 opponents did not go well for the Cougs last season as they lost all four games by an average of nearly 18 points per game. That includes a loss to Gonzaga, 81-66 in Spokane as lofty 22.5 pt dogs. Though 2-0 ATS against Few's team the L2 seasons, Wazzu has actually lost those games by a combined 31 points! It should be more of the same this year. 8* Gonzaga |
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12-02-15 | Bucks v. Spurs -12 | Top | 70-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (8:35 ET): Like the Sixers in another game in this report, the Spurs find themselves in a somewhat unique situation. Only in their case, it's off a loss as they surprisingly fell at Chicago on Monday, 92-89 as four-point favorites. It was the first time all season that Greg Popovich's team lost a game in which they allowed fewer than 100 points. The problem was that they shot only 41.1 percent from the field themselves, one of their lowest percentages in a game all season. Fortunately, however, tonight they welcome in a Milwaukee team that is one of the worst in the league defensively. The Bucks are 28th in defensive efficiency and allow 105.7 PPG. That simply won't cut it against the best defensive team in the league. Lay the big number. Here at home, San Antonio is allowing just 85.2 points per game, which is just tremendous. Again, only three teams have scored more than 100 against them this year and all of those games resulted in losses and came on the road. The 92 points allowed in Chicago Monday night was actually the most they've given up over the L6 games! Losses have been few and far between for the Spurs this season, but when they're off one, you want to back them the next time out. I say that because they've gone 3-0 SU/ATS in that role w/ every single victory coming by double digits. I was on them the last time when they beat Memphis 92-82. Their average margin of victory here at home is 14.4 PPG, quite impressive, and they haven't lost a regular season game here since falling to Cleveland last March. Milwaukee has not won a visit to the Alamo since 2008. While the Spurs are off a rare loss, the Bucks are actually off a win, but the L3 times they've found themselves in this role, they've gotten destroyed. They've lost SU/ATS all three times, all by double digits and by an average of nearly 19 PPG! While off - easily - their best defensive effort of the year, a 92-74 home win over Denver, the Bucks simply aren't too likely to match that performance on that end of the floor tonight. Over the L3 seasons, the team is 4-17 ATS after allowing 85 pts or less in its previous game. 8* San Antonio |
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12-02-15 | 76ers v. Knicks -8.5 | Top | 87-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
8* New York (7:35 ET): Philadelphia finds itself in an unusual spot this evening as they are actually coming off a SU win! Last night, at home, saw them defeat the Lakers 103-91 as two-point favorites for their first win of the season. That's right, an 0-18 SU team was actually favored to win, which should tell you all you need to know about the sorry state of the Lakers right now. Believe it or not, but the Sixers have actually been quite competitive of late, holding a fourth quarter lead in five of the last six games while going a perfect 6-0 against the spread. They are on the road, without rest, which usually signals some value but tonight I do not believe they'll be able to sustain success against a rested and improved Knicks squad. New York is trending in the wrong direction right now w/ four consecutive SU and ATS losses. Their last came Sunday, here at home vs. Houston, 116-111 in overtime as four-point dogs. Note that Carmelo Anthony missed that game due to a strep throat and is listed as questionable for tonight. I'm taking a flier here that he will play (pick still stands even if he doesn't!), which would be awesome as he leads the team in scoring w/ a 22.1 PPG average. (Latest reports are that Anthony IS expected to play). But of course, there is the league's top rookie, Kristaps Porzingis, who has eight double-doubles already this season and comes in averaging 17 points and 11.6 rebounds his L5 games. It's surprising to me that the Knicks are only 3-6 SU/ATS at home this season as they are definitely much improved from last year's disastrous campaign. Even off a win and factoring in recent "competitiveness," the Sixers should still be a double digit dog here in my estimation. Need I remind you that this team is still last in the league in offensive efficiency (by 5 PPG per 100 possessions!) and overall scoring differential (-10.8 points per game). On a recently completed six-game road swing, they were a DD dog five times. I just think that for a young team such as this, there's going to be an inevitable letdown following a win. The team went just 7-11 ATS last season off a SU win and won B2B games just four times. Lay the points. 8* New York |
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12-02-15 | Suns +4 v. Pistons | Top | 122-127 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (7:35 ET): This is a situation we've been cleaning up in all season, that being a team getting points in the second of B2B road games. Monday, it was Boston cashing for us and last night saw Dallas do the same. Tonight, it's Phoenix, off a narrow (three-point) loss in Brooklyn last night and taking points in Detroit. The Suns have been setting lately w/ a 1-5 SU/ATS record their L6 games, including some losses on the road to bad teams. But they did win at Toronto Sunday and I think a bounce back is in the cards tonight. Detroit, off just its second win in its last six games, isn't a great candidate to be laying points as they're only 3-5 SU/ATS in that role this season and 29-40 ATS as chalk the L3 seasons. Take the points. Phoenix, meanwhile, has been a GREAT road team through the years. They are 55-32 ATS away from home the L3 seasons despite last night's loss. Note that after trailing the Nets by double digits in the first half, the Suns actually rallied back to take the lead themselves in the fourth quarter, holding a nine-point advantage at one time! This is actually a revenge spot for them as they lost outright to the Pistons as four-point chalk back on November 6th, but at the time Detroit was playing much better. In fact, after following that win up w/ another (over Portland) in their next game, the Pistons have gone just 4-8 SU/ATS. In that first meeting, the Suns shot only 40.2 percent from the field, a number which they almost certainly will improve upon this evening. Detroit, meanwhile, ranks near the bottom of the league in shooting percentage (41.5%) and offensive efficiency. So, I wouldn't put a ton of stock into the fact they just scored 116 points on a season-best 52.9 percent shooting Sunday against the Rockets, who are one of the worst defensive teams in the league. In three of its previous four games, Detroit failed to score even 90 points. Those offensive woes have obviously contributed to their issues when favored and I think it's more of the same here against an undervalued opponent. 10* Phoenix |
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12-02-15 | Butler +5.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 78-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
10* Butler (7:00 ET): It's time to start targeting some of these remaining unbeatens in College Basketball as there's only 24 left after three teams that entered last night w/o a blemish on their respective resumes went down. Tonight, I'm looking at Cincinnati, who I think finds itself in a less favorable spot compared to visiting Butler despite this being the latter's first "true" road game this season. I say that because the Bulldogs have had to play only once (Saturday) since suffering their first & only loss (to Miami) on November 22nd. Meanwhile, the Bearcats are coming off three games in four days (last one Saturday) as they won the Barclays Center Classic. I have these teams rated basically even, so even after factoring in home court, the value is still on the dog. Take the points. Cincinnati is 7-0 SU, but each of its last two wins, over Nebraska and George Washington, were close. Saturday saw them rally back from a halftime deficit to defeat GW. Incredibly, the Colonials attempted only FOUR free throws for the entire game! Granted, hot three-point shooting (in the first half) was what kept them in the game. But it was similarly close win for Cincy the previous day against Nebraska (65-61 as 12.5-pt chalk). Defensively, the Bearcats are 4th nationally in PPG allowed (54.6), but I worry about their offense, which has failed to top 65 pts in three consecutive games, especially w/ Octavius Ellis battling back issues. That makes taking the points all the more attractive here in what shapes up as the Bearcats' toughest test to date. Butler has not had many offensive issues this year as they come in ranked 4th nationally in points per game at 95.0. Granted, that has a lot to do w/ a monster 144-point effort against The Citadel in the season opener. But they shot 56.6 percent from the floor in Saturday's win over SIU-Edwardsville and the fewest points they've scored in any game this season is 74. A real key for the Bulldogs is that they take great care of the basketball, averaging just 9.8 turnovers per game. Keep an eye on Kellen Dunham, who projects to be one of the best players in the Big East this season. Butler is 7-3 ATS its L10 road games vs. a team w/ a winning record. 10* Butler |
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12-01-15 | Mavs +1 v. Blazers | Top | 115-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
8* Dallas (10:05 ET): We're likely to get a change of favorite here despite the fact that the Mavericks lost last night in Sacramento (really let me down!). Perhaps bettors are catching on to "my" strategy of teams playing the second of B2B road games consistently being undervalued (won w/ Boston in that spot last night). Despite last night's loss, that appears to be the case again tonight as Portland just isn't very good (had to replace FOUR starters from LY's team, including LaMarcus Aldridge). The Blazers also played last night, and lost, 102-87 at the Clippers as seven-point dogs. While the home team captured all four meetings between these two last season, this is a much different Portland team and I'm on the visitors here. Prior to last night's 15-point loss, Portland had won three of five straight up while going 4-1 ATS. But two of the wins and covers came the expense of the sorry Lakers. Before that "mini-streak," the team had dropped seven in a row. Like I said earlier, it's going to be a clear step back for this team this season due to the large turnover in personnel. Tonight, things go from "bad to worse" as their lone returning starter from LY (Damian Lillard) is likely to miss this game due to an undisclosed illness. He left last night's game w/ an upset stomach relatively early (played just 17 minutes) and from that point it was all Clippers, who outscored the Blazers by 15 in the second half - identical to the final margin. Things could have been even worse for Portland last night had DeAndre Jordan not missed 22 of 34 free throws! Dallas was actually up at the half last night in Sacramento (58-54). But when they returned from the break, things began to fall apart, especially in the third quarter when they were held to just 13 points. That was a far cry from the third quarter in their previous game when they held Denver to just five points! Giving up 36 pts in the fourth quarter to the Kings certainly didn't help matters either. The team was just 9 for 37 from three-point range last night w/ Dirk Nowitzki going 0 for 4 and Wes Matthews going 2 for 8. So far, Dallas is 3-1 straight up in the second night of back to backs while Portland is 1-3 SU/ATS. 8* Dallas |
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12-01-15 | Maryland v. North Carolina -6 | Top | 81-89 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
8* North Carolina (9:30 ET): There's only 27 remaining unbeatens in College Hoops following Fresno State's loss last night. One of them is Maryland, who embarks on - by far - its toughest test to date tonight at North Carolina as a part of the annual Big 10/ACC Challenge. These two programs are obviously no strangers to one another as they are former conference rivals (Maryland in the ACC). Believe it or not, but the Big 10 has owned this event recently as the ACC has not won it since 2008 after previously never losing one! Because they are undefeated, I feel the underdog Terps come in overvalued as I don't see the Tar Heels losing in Chapel Hill. This is Maryland's first "true" road game of the season. Lay the points. UNC already has played a "true" road game and that accounted for the team's only loss, 71-67 at Northern Iowa where they were 6.5-point favorites. Overall, the Tar Heels have failed to cover four straight, which has clearly contributed to them being undervalued tonight. They are off B2B double digit wins (by 11 and 10 pts), however, over Northwestern and Kansas State in Kansas City as part of the CBE Hall of Fame Classic. Remember that this was the preseason #1 team in the country as they returned nine of their top 10 scorers from a year ago. One of those is senior guard Marcus Paige, projected to be the team's leading scorer. Due to a broken hand, Paige has yet to play this season, but good news Tar Heels fans (and readers here!) - Paige is making his season debut tonight & will start. Maryland has experienced a great deal of good fortune since making the jump to the Big 10 last season. Most notably, they have gone 13-1 SU in games decided by five points or less. That includes a 75-71 win over Georgetown earlier this season. Like UNC, the Terrapins have had their issues covering the spread (1-4 ATS L5), including their last time out as they failed as 22-point chalk against a bad Cleveland State team, winning only 80-63. The Terps led by only four at the break in that one. They have not won in Chapel Hill since 2008, including a 12-pt loss here their last year in the ACC, which dropped them to 4-11 SU, 5-10 ATS their previous 15 visits. This is one of the cheapest prices we will get on UNC at home all year. 8* North Carolina |
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12-01-15 | Wizards v. Cavs -9 | Top | 97-85 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (7:05 ET): Home teams cleaned up last night in NBA, going 6-1 against the spread and here we have the Cavs, who are unbeaten this season at Quicken Loans Arena (9-0 SU w/ avg MOV by 8.5 PPG). LeBron and company will have to top that average margin of victory tonight as they welcome in Washington, but fortunately for both their & our cause here, the Wizards have routinely been getting blown out when leaving D.C. The Wiz have dropped four of their previous five road games w/ every loss coming by double digits. Overall, they've lost four in a row. Cleveland has lost only four times this season and while it was a bit of a rough November at the betting window, they should have no problem winning by double digits here. Lay the points. As I've stated previously, Washington came into the season promising to push the pace. They have, but the change in strategy has not let to better results. The team is currently two games below .500 and being outscored by nearly six points per game, one of the worst scoring differentials in the entire league. They'd lost three in a row by an average of 21 PPG, all against lesser competition than what they'll face here, before dropping a game to Toronto by a deuce on Saturday. Defensively, they've been a disaster, giving up an Eastern Conference high 105.1 PPG. Offensively, things have been no better as the team has shot below 36% in three consecutive games (< 33% L2 games!). Right now, I'm not sure this is even a playoff team in an improved East. Meanwhile, to no one's surprise, Cleveland is pacing the Eastern Conference w/ a 13-4 SU record. They did have more trouble than expected here at home vs. Brooklyn Saturday night, winning only 90-88 as LeBron won the game on a hook shot in the final seconds, but it was their second straight strong performance on the defensive end and offensively they are top three in the league in terms of efficiency. Washington has been held to an average of 82.3 PPG its last three contests and is unlikely to keep pace w/ a Cavaliers squad averaging 106.2 PPG here at home. 10* Cleveland |
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12-01-15 | Villanova v. St. Joe's +11.5 | Top | 86-72 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
10* St. Joseph's (7:00 ET): With Fresno State losing last night, that leaves only 27 teams w/o a loss this season. One of them is Villanova, who as previously noted I've targeted as a 'play against' team this season. Not that I don't have respect for Jay Wright's Wildcats, who went 33-3 straight up a year ago and really dominated the Big East. But, my "issue" with them is an ATS record that has reached an unsustainable level (51-21 L2 seasons!). I've lost a couple of times going against them this season as they were able to rattle off runs of 22-0 and 24-0 in the first halves. But on Thanksgiving, I notched a nice cover at their expense, taking the points w/ Stanford. Now we're getting 'Nova playing their first "true" road game of the season & I'll take the points here w/ cross-town rival St. Joe's. After failing to cover on Turkey Day vs. Stanford, Villanova (who won the game 59-45) went on to win the NIT Championship by blowing out Georgia Tech, 69-52 as 11-point chalk. The Wildcats have now won every game by double digits, the closest margin being 14 points. But during the course of the NIT, we did see their scoring average dip down to 64 points per game (in the two neutral site games), which will make it more difficult to consistently cover spreads such as this one. A major key for them so far has been their opponents shooting very poorly from three-point range. Stanford and Georgia Tech combined to shoot only 17.4 percent from behind the arc, which is obviously just awful. Yes, we need to credit the Nova defense, but at the same time, teams should be shooting better than that even against a good defense. St. Joe's should be rested and ready for this all-Philly matchup as they haven't taken the court in over a week (November 22nd). They won their last game, 66-64 over Old Dominion, as a 1-point dog in a Holiday Tournament of their own (Naismith Classic). That was a nice bounce back from their first loss of the year, 74-63 to Florida the previous day. The underdog Hawks match up nicely here as they too have been outstanding at guarding the three-point line and have some nice size as well (10 blocks last game!). After losing to Villanova the L2 years (by an average of 29 PPG!), this is a massive revenge spot. 10* St. Josephs |
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11-30-15 | Mavs -1.5 v. Kings | Top | 98-112 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
8* Dallas (10:05 ET): The Mavericks got back on track Saturday night w/ a 92-81 win in Denver and given that they've now covered eight of their last 10 games overall, this seems like a really low number to be laying against a bad Sacramento team that very well could be w/o its best player (DeMarcus Cousins) yet again tonight. The Mavs took all three matchups with the Kings last season, two of them here in California's capital city. Surprisingly, Sacramento had been 5-0-1 ATS since the start of the 2013-14 season vs. Dallas, but that was before they got hammered here at Sleep Train Arena, 101-78 as three-point dogs, back in February. Off B2B double digit losses, I don't see the Kings getting back on track here. Defensively, Sacramento has major issues (why I also like the Over here!). They've allowed 118+ points in three of their last four games and while the last one came against unbeaten Golden State, the other two were games vs. Charlotte and Milwaukee. They also lost by 10 to Minnesota (as three-point chalk) here at home on Friday. Despite the reasonable amount of ATS success vs. the Mavs the previous two seasons, that has not translated into wins for the Kings as they have lost six straight times to them as well as 21 of the last 23 meetings. With the line so low for tonight, you have to assume that SU winner = ATS winner. As I said at the open, the Mavs snapped a three-game losing streak (played Memphis, OKC and San Antonio) w/ a 92-81 win over Denver on Saturday. It was the defense stepping up there (will talk more about that in the analysis for the Over), but tonight I feel its the offense "due to break out" as this is the first time all season that they've gone three straight games w/o scoring 100 points. It's been established just how poor Sacramento is defensively (allow a league-high 109.1 PPG!), so I look for that little streak to come to an end here. Pertinent is the fact that Dallas is 9-2-1 against the spread the L3 seasons as a road favorite of three points or less, winning all but one of those games outright. Again, it's highly unlikely that the pointspread comes into play here, so all we need is a SU win. 8* Dallas |
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11-30-15 | Spurs -3.5 v. Bulls | Top | 89-92 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
10* San Antonio (8:05 ET): Even though they're the road team here, I don't think that the Spurs are getting nearly enough respect tonight in Chicago. This is a squad that's lost just three times all season, all on the road, but otherwise they've allowed 100+ in just one other game. The results is that Greg Popovich's team is the best defensively in the entire league, giving up just 89.7 points per game, and that should serve them well here against a Bulls team that ranks near the bottom of the barrel in terms of offensive efficiency. The change at head coach from Tom Thibodeau to Fred Hoiberg was supposed to lead to an "uptick" in offense in the Windy City, but they average only 97.3 points per 100 possessions and it's an ugly list looking at those below them. Lay the points here. Since their last loss (in New Orleans on November 20th), the Spurs have won five in a row (granted, four at home) and allowed a minuscule average of just 83.4 PPG in the process! The consistency has been remarkable as no opponent during that time has topped 90 points! Points should again be at a premium here w/ the Under being a perfect 6 for 6 this season in Bulls' home games. Typically, you'd think that would favor the team getting points, but Chicago is just 1-5 ATS at the United Center and I wonder where their points will even come from. This is the first game back following a four-game road trip that ended w/ a 104-92 loss in Indiana on Friday as the Bulls shot below 40 percent for a third consecutive contest. Normally, I might call for some "good ol'" progression to the mean, but this is not the opponent for that. San Antonio has held six of its last nine opponents to 84 pts or less, which is downright incredible. That makes them a tough matchup for anyone (even Golden State!), but particularly the Bulls, who were an atrocious 21 of 66 on two-point field goal attempts Friday. Keep mind that that the Spurs just held Atlanta, a team that came in averaging 106.4 points its previous five games, to only 88. That improved them to 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS vs. the Eastern Conference this season and the bottom line is that the Bulls are a pretty mediocre bunch right now. 10* San Antonio |
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11-30-15 | North Texas +20.5 v. Northern Iowa | Top | 70-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
8* North Texas (8:00 ET): One of the worst football seasons in school history was just completed at North Texas, but for the Denton faithful, at least there's hoops. Monday sees the Mean Green traveling to Cedar Falls to take on a Northern Iowa team that IMO is going to be overvalued for a while due to an upset of then #1 North Carolina back on November 21st as 6.5 pt home pups (won 71-67). Since that time, the Panthers have won twice, 83-63 over Dubuque (who?) and 97-51 (7th largest margin of victory in program history) at North Dakota. But the UNT team they welcome in Monday will be one in a surly mood considering it just suffered three painful home losses in three days last week. Take the points in this one. Yes, you read that correctly. In a three-day span, North Texas lost three times on its home floor, in an event that was dubbed "The Mean Green Challenge." While it ended up being not much of a "challenge" for opponents, note that two of the losses suffered came by exactly two points and the third saw Troy get ridiculously hot from the field in the second half as in 55 points while making 17 of their final 25 shots. Even w/ the step up in class here, North Texas should not expect to be victimized by such red-hot shooting. They actually led that game at the half Wednesday and in the previous two games they had a potential GW three-pointer waved off (too late) and another go against them. I fully expect we'll get this team's best shot on the road Monday and they are 16-8 ATS L24 away games, including 6-2 ATS when taking 12.5 or more points. Northern Iowa played over the weekend while North Texas did not, so that's an edge for the underdog right there. While the Panthers need to get their "just due" for what they did against North Carolina, the two games before that are more pertinent than the last two, IMO. Those first two contests of the season saw them lose outright (as 7.5-pt chalk) to Colorado State and then beat Stephen F. Austin by only 10. The Panthers shot the ball at over a 58% clip their last two games and that number almost certainly comes down tonight. I also can't see UNT shooting only 29.7 percent from the floor like North Dakota did on Saturday. Laying this many points while playing for a second time in three days catches up with the big favorite. 8* North Texas |