Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-14-15 | Xavier v. Villanova -7.5 | Top | 52-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
10* Villanova (8:00 ET): Is there a more "unheralded" great team in the country than Villanova? I would say not. The Wildcats did have a close call yday against Providence (won by only 2), but one could make an argument that tonight's Big East Tournament Final is actually a DROP in class from the matchup w/ the Friars as they get set to play a Xavier team off B2B minor upsets of Butler and Georgetown. Not only has 'Nova swept the Musketeers each of the past two regular season, going 4-0 straight up, but they have also gone 4-0 ATS in the process. This Villanova team has not lost a game since January 19th. Since then, they've rattled off 14 consecutive victories and gone 12-2 ATS in the process. A big win here all but assures them of a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Lay the points. Both regular season meetings between these teams were decided by double digits. The more recent one was played in Cincinnati and saw Nova win by 12 as two-point favorites. That's pretty much par for the course as the four wins over the Musketeers the last two seasons have come by an average of 13.7 PPG. Nova has scorched them from three-point range, shooting 42.5 from behind the arc in those wins. This year, they were over 44%! While Xavier blew a seven-point halftime lead in the last meeting, they trailed by 18 at the break in the first one. I just don't see these teams being in the same class. The Musketeers blew a 21-point lead yesterday against Georgetown, but held on for a two-point win. But while Villanova has been pretty much dominant over a long-period of time, we've now seen Xavier win its last three games by a total of five points. With an at-large big now all but assured, I'd say the Musketeers are ripe to be blown out here as Villanova goes for its first Big East Tournament Championship in 20 years, if you can believe that. 10* Villanova |
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03-14-15 | Sacramento Kings v. Washington Wizards -8.5 | Top | 97-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:05 ET): A case could be made that over the last two months, the Wizards have been as bad as any potential playoff team in the league. But w/ B2B impressive blowouts over Charlotte and Memphis this week, might they be getting set to turn it around? I'm willing to bank on it as they get set to host a bad Sacramento team tonight. Even better is that the Kings are taking the court w/out rest as they suffered an embarrassing loss last night in Philadelphia. A bad team, playing its third road game in four nights, in bad form is a pretty good target for a 'play against' situation this time of year in my estimation. That's precisely what I'll do here. Sacramento has lost five of its last six. They too beat Charlotte earlier in the week, but any goodwill stemming from that victory was immediately lost w/ last night's embarrassing loss. We knew that the Kings were a bad defensive team to begin with (28th in points allowed), but giving up 114 to the lowly Sixers is unforgivable. Normally you might think that pride would kick in and they'd be a good play plus the points the following night. But considering this team has already lost three times by 25+ points since George Karl took over last month, I would say there's not much pride to go around here. Making last night's loss especially painful was that the Kings led by 13 at halftime. Washington has held eight straight opponents under 100 points. Their best defensive performance during the stretch came Monday when they held the Hornets to just 69 points. They followed that w/ perhaps a more impressive showing, beating a good Memphis team by 20 points here at home Thursday night on TNT. While Sacramento is playing for a third time in four nights, this will be the Wizards third game over a six day span. So they're well rested and in better form to boot. Look for them to take advantage of a Kings team that allows nearly 108 PPG on the road and is just 7-17 ATS this season vs. the Eastern Conference. 10* Washington |
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03-14-15 | Michigan State -2.5 v. Maryland | Top | 62-58 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
8* Michigan State (3:30 ET): The lower seed is favored here, which always catches my attention. Then again, I'm not surprised at all as I don't believe Maryland is anywhere near as good as their ranking (currently #8). Yesterday saw the Terrapins win for an 8th straight time, beating Indiana 75-69. Like Michigan State did over Ohio State, the Terps had the advantage of playing w/ rest while the opponent did not, but now things are even w/ both squads playing for a second time in two days. Something to consider here is that Sparty has double revenge from the regular season and no team has beaten Tom Izzo three times in the same season since 2003-04. Lay the points. MSU has won six of eight w/ one of the losses coming in OT and the other at Wisconsin. They come off an impressive win over a very good Ohio State team yday. The Buckeyes were held under 40% shooting for the game and trailed Sparty by as many as 17 in the second half. So the game wasn't necessarily as close as the final score indicated. I'm probably not the first person you've heard say this, and certainly won't be the last, but I put a lot of faith in Tom Izzo this time of year. While Maryland has been an overachiever all season, I don't think Michigan State has really played up to its potential. They've taken a number of tough losses, including a double OT game in the first loss to Maryland, and due to have a few "go their way" in my opinion. Such will be the case here. Maryland has lost only three Big 10 games this season, but all were blowouts (by 16 or more points). Meanwhile, yday was their ninth win by six points or less in conference play. This is a team that clearly has benefited from good fortune all year. A relatively weak non-conference schedule, save for games vs. Virginia (lost) and Iowa State, also helped inflate their record. The current winning streak is the program's longest since a 13-game run two seasons ago. I totally agree with the linesmakers assessment of these teams (i.e Mich St being favored) and let's not forget that Izzo won this event not just LY, but two of the previous three as well. 8* Michigan State |
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03-13-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Dallas Mavericks -2.5 | Top | 99-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
8* Dallas (8:35 ET): This is a classic situation where we're using both teams' previous results to our benefit. In the case of the Clippers, I was on them as they went to Oklahoma City Wednesday for another nationally televised affair and prevailed 120-108, a near 20 pt cover. Meanwhile, the night previous saw Dallas get absolutely humiliated at home by Cleveland, losing by 33. That was their worst home loss in many years and despite how things have looked lately, I'm fully anticipating a bounce back performance from the Mavericks here. Though being a home dog for the 1st time all year didn't work out, this is still a favorable price range for a team that averages 105.7 points per game on its own floor. The Clippers have actually been one of the worst pointspread teams in the league all year. They're just 28-36-1 ATS overall. I thought they were being drastically undervalued at Oklahoma City, but the opposite seems to hold true here as it seems the home team isn't getting much of a boost for playing in its own gym. Consider the last time the Clips came calling to Dallas, they were 8.5-point dogs. Granted they did win that game, pretty comfortably, and they also beat the Mavs by 20 at Staples Center back in January. But I think it's just really hard to win B2B road games in the Western Conference, provided you're not playing Denver, Sacramento, the Lakers or Minnesota. Remember that the Clippers are still without Blake Griffin. They've gone 9-5 SU w/o him so far, but now the challenge is greater with Jamal Crawford sidelined as well. JJ Redick isn't a viable long-term option, in my opinion. Meanwhile, the Mavericks' Monta Ellis and Dirk Nowitzki are overdue to see their numbers improve. Los Angeles is allowing 102.6 PPG on the road and w/ double revenge and off a bad loss, I cannot see Dallas not being supremely motivated here. 8* Dallas |
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03-13-15 | Miami Heat v. Toronto Raptors -5.5 | Top | 92-102 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:35 ET): I realize that the Raptors have struggled mightily of late, losing 9 of their last 10 games. But this game is at home against a Miami team that simply is not very good. Thus, I feel they're being undervalued in this matchup, rather significantly. The majority of Toronto's games since the All-Star Break have come on the road. Here at home, where they significantly better on the defensive end, they've gone 21-11 SU this season. Now they need to get it going offensively, which they have the L5 games (106.2 PPG), as they look to snap a ridiculous 16-game losing streak to the Heat. Honestly, I was shocked when I found that streak and in addition to believing it to be just unsustainable, I'll again note that the Heat just aren't that good. Miami comes into this game ranked 28th in points, 30th in rebounding and 29th in assists. That's clearly indicative of a really bad team and in fact I continue to rate the Heat in the bottom 10 in the entire league overall. Averaging only 93.1 points per game on the road this season, I see them struggling to keep up here. They did top 100 in a win over Brooklyn Weds night, but that was at home. The team has lost six of its last eight road games with one of the wins coming by three points in OT against Orlando. The other win was against the Knicks. One would have to go back to late January to find the last time the Heat beat a .500 or better foe on the road. I'm not buying into Dwyane Wade's recent high level performances either. I fully expect a motivated performance from the Raptors here, not just because of the losing streak to the Heat, but also because of the way PG Kyle Lowry "ripped" into the team for its lethargic start against the Spurs Tuesday night. With two days off to prepare for this one, this has all the makings of a "must win" for Toronto, who did show some signs of life in fighting back against San Antonio. Toronto has been the better team all year and should be laying more points at home against a sub.-500 foe. 10* Toronto |
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03-13-15 | Temple -3 v. Memphis | Top | 80-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
10* Temple (2:30 ET): The American features a fairly wide open tournament and this is the 4-5 matchup w/ the winner (presumably) facing top-seed SMU. Temple is one of the teams firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble, based on the strength of their win over Kansas, and cannot afford a loss here. The quarterfinal opponent is Memphis, not considered a NCAA Tournament team. The Tigers lost three of their final four regular season games, and lost to the Owls by one (at home) the only time they played in the regular season. Very quietly, Temple has won 10 of 12 w/ the only losses coming to the top two teams in the conference, SMU and Tulsa, both on the road. Overall, they've won 16 of 21 and are a good value this afternoon. Lay the points. Temple went 1-5 SU against the three teams that finished higher than them in the American standings, but 12-0 SU vs. everybody else. Duke and Villanova handed them two of their other defeats, so this is clearly a team that typically takes care of business when faced w/ "lesser competition." In the 18 games in which the Owls were favored during the regular season, they only lost three. The fact that Memphis is 1-8 SU/ATS as an underdog this year is all the more encouraging. Again, this is a game Temple probably cannot lose if it wants to make the Big Dance. Despite shooting only 33.3 percent against Memphis earlier this year, the Owls were able to erase a 10-point halftime deficit on the road and get the win. That's actually encouraging as I don't believe they'll shoot that poorly again. Memphis did not end its regular season well as they lost six of 11 w/ three of the wins coming against Jacksonville State, USF and Central Florida (OT). The importance of this game for Temple cannot be understated. Having already won at Memphis this year, they should be able to take care of business on a neutral floor. 10* Temple |
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03-13-15 | Penn State +5.5 v. Purdue | Top | 59-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
8* Penn State (2:30 ET): The Nittany Lions, who are the 13-seed in the Big 10 Tournament, pulled an upset here yday, beating 5-seed Iowa 67-58 as 8.5-point dogs. This will now be their third game in three days after also beating Nebraska on Wednesday. With opposing Purdue being "on the bubble," they probably can't afford the loss here, so many are probably going to be inclined to take the points. But not me. The Boilermakers' sterling 14-4 ATS conference record was built up largely as as underdog, as they've failed to cover two in a row as favorites. That includes the regular season finale vs. Illinois. This is a below .500 team away from home as well, so I'll take the points w/ the team no one is going to be expecting much from here today. Penn State is now 10-4 ATS this season taking points following yday's upset of Iowa. I think that most, myself included, would have Iowa ranked higher than Purdue for what it's worth. The Nittany Lions, who trailed 28-19 at halftime Wednesday, exploded for 48 second half points for the upset. However, the key was holding Iowa to just 26.3% shooting for the game. Remember that the Hawkeyes were rested yesterday, so the bye may not be all that beneficial to Purdue here. The Nittany Lions are not nearly as bad as their record shows considering that all but four of their conference losses this season were by single digits. One of those came to Purdue, in State College, in overtime back in January. That was one of three OT losses (no wins) this season for PSU. One could certainly make the argument that Penn State outplayed Purdue in the first meeting, as they led most of the way, before fouling up three in the final seconds went awry (Purdue missed both FT's, but got the rebound and subsequent three-pointer). Penn State was a one-point favorite for that game, so again, even factoring out any home court advantage, the line seems a bit inflated here. Purdue, who has lost two of their last three overall, had a number of close victories during the regular season, so it's tough to like them as the chalk. 8* Penn State |
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03-12-15 | New York Knicks +6.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 101-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
8* New York (10:35 ET): Hold your nose and take the points in this one. I concede to you that the Knicks are an awful team. They have the worst record in the league, yes even worse than Philadelphia, at 12-51 SU and have dropped five in a row by an average of 20 points per game. But that and the fact the Lakers are off a rare SU win have combined to really influence this line. The Lakers have actually been hot at the betting window, covering eight of nine, but prior to Tuesday's win over Detroit, they'd lost five in a row. This is not a team that should be favored very often, and never by this many points. This will be just the sixth time all season that the Lakers have been favored in a game. The last came right before the All-Star Break and they lost outright to Denver, here at home, by a score of 106-96. Keep in mind that this is a team that has just five wins in its last 26 games overall. They are among the worst teams defensively in the entire league, giving up over 105 PPG. I just don't see how they can be favored by this many points against any opponent. Then you have the fact that the Knicks beat the Lakers back on February 1st, 92-80 at MSG. New York was a three-point favorite in that matchup, so again it looks like there's plenty of value here in taking the points for the rematch. The Knicks have been close in two of their previous three games, covering against both Indiana and Utah in losses by six points or less, and those are actually two of the hottest teams in the league right now. Sub-.400 teams off a SU win this time of year tend to be purely fade material for me. This play is no endorsement of the Knicks, it's merely a repudiation of the Lakers being favored. 8* New York. |
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03-12-15 | Milwaukee Bucks +7.5 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (7:05 ET): Indiana's recent results aside, the spread is just too high here, plus as you know I always have my eye on underdogs in conference matchups where the total is low. So a number of parameters are met here as the Bucks visit the Pacers and are getting about five points too many according to my ratings. Remember that Milwaukee has been one of the top pointspread teams in the league all season, including a lethal 23-14 ATS record as an underdog. They won yday, 97-91 over Orlando, holding the Magic to just 34 points total in the second half. I see the Bucks staying within the number in this one. Take the points. Indiana comes in having won six straight and is 5-1 ATS in those games. They have been favored in every game. However, the win streak is not as impressive when you consider who they played. They've faced the Knicks twice (failed to cover once), Philadelphia, Orlando as well as depleted Cleveland and Chicago rosters. While 11-3 ATS their last 14 games overall, the Pacers now seem to be overpriced as the previous time they hosted Milwaukee this season, they were only four-point favorites and promptly lost outright. Granted, the team is playing much better now, but it's not enough to justify this level of favoritism. A number of unheralded players have stepped up recently, and I don't think that can be counted on for a game by game basis. Given that both teams tend to play low-scoring games, that would actually favor the dog, given that points will be at a premium. Milwaukee is 4th in the league in PPG allowed (96.6), right behind Indiana. While they've cooled off significantly since the All-Star Break, the Bucks have won two of three and you can expect this game to have their full attention now that Indiana is only three games back of them for the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference. Keep an eye on Khris Middleton, who has scored 30 points (a career-high) twice in the last three games. Bottom line is that it just seems to me that a recent soft schedule has inflated the market value of the Pacers. 10* Milwaukee |
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03-12-15 | St. Joe's v. Saint Bonaventure -3 | Top | 49-60 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
8* St. Bonaventure (6:30 ET): This is a second round matchup in the A-10 w/ the winner moving on to face 2-seed Dayton. St. Bonaventure is the higher seed here (7 as opposed to 10) and swept St. Joe's during the regular season, winning by nearly identical scores. Both teams would need to win this tourney in order to qualify for the NCAA Tournament, which is highly unlikely, but I do think the Bonnies should at least roll here tonight and make it 3-0 vs. the Hawks this year. In addition to beating St. Joe's twice this year, the Bonnies also ended the regular season in better form w/ three straight wins, all by 16+ points. The final scores of the two regular season meetings were 70-61 and 70-60. The Bonnies shot much better in the one home meeting (47.2% compared to just 37.9% on the road) while St. Joe's shot poorly in both games, particularly from the free throw line, which cost them. St. Joe's is just an awful FT shooting team at 61.1 percent for the year. You have to figure they'll struggle to score points here as they average 62.1 per game. St. Bonaventure was also much better at taking care of business away from home this year, turning in a respectable 8-6 SU record while St. Joe's went 3-13 SU in road/neutral site games. The last time these teams played was February 21st. The Bonnies were two-point road dogs, but won in overtime, snapping a three-game losing streak at the time. As I said earlier, the Bonnies closed the regular season in much stronger fashion, though they did benefit from playing the bottom of the league. Still, the 92 points they scored in regulation vs. Duquesne was a season-best (excluding OT) and in the two games since they've allowed just 100 pts. This is the most wins any St. Bonaventure team has had in conference play since 1999-00. St. Joe's, which failed to break 60 pts in two of its last three games, shot 56.3% against Rhode Island last weekend and still lost by 10 points. 8* St. Bonaventure. |
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03-12-15 | West Virginia v. Baylor -3.5 | Top | 70-80 | Win | 100 | 3 h 6 m | Show |
10* Baylor (12:30 ET): This is the 4-5 matchup in the Big 12 Tournament w/ the winner drawing the winner of the Kansas-TCU matchup. Both Baylor and West Virginia are considered "locks" for the NCAA Tournament, the only thing at stake here for either is improving seeding. Well, for WVU, there is a case of double revenge on the mind, but unfortunately for them it's looking like leading scorer Juwan Staten may not play Thursday (currently listed as doubtful) due to a knee injury. The Mountaineers lost two of three games w/out him in the lineup at the end of the regular season, including at Waco by a 12-point margin. Earlier in the year, with Staten in the lineup, Baylor went to Morgantown and won by 18. The third time will not be the charm here for West Virginia. Overall, Baylor has won six of the past seven meetings with WVU. They shot 53% against them in this year's two wins and in the most recent matchup, turned the ball over only eight times, the fewest by any WVU opponent all season. I really like this Bears' team, which has made the Big 12 Tourney Final two of the past three seasons. Baylor is 8th nationally in rebounding (39.6 per game) and its only loss over the L6 games came in an OT affair. They'd covered four in a row, before a lethargic effort in the regular season finale vs. Texas Tech. As a neutral court favorite of three points or less, they've covered 9 of 11 and they're 5-1 ATS L6 when taking the court w/ 5 or 6 days rest. It's difficult to understate the impact Staten's absence would have on West Virginia here. Not only does he lead the team in scoring, but he leads them in assists as well. Baylor allows just 60 PPG to begin with, so playing w/o their top playmaker, I envision WVU struggling to score points in this matchup. The Mountaineers are just 4-7 SU vs. ranked foes this season while Baylor has won six of its last eight. Both regular season matchups were basically "over" by halftime (Bears led by 15+ both times), so possibly w/o their best player, I can't see WVU doing any better here. 10* Baylor. |
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03-12-15 | Florida State v. Virginia -12.5 | Top | 44-58 | Win | 100 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
8* Virginia (12:00 ET): UVA will be competing to earn a #1 seed in the Big Dance here in Charlotte. Winning this event would obviously ensure they get it, but I wonder what the committee might do if say the Cavaliers were to lose to Duke again, in the Tourney Final? Given they have just two losses all season, I'd say the Cavs are pretty safe, but I'll still call for them to win big in this ACC Quarterfinal matchup w/ Florida State. The 'Noles had to play yday just to get here, and almost blew all of a 20-point lead, before holding on for a 76-73 win over Clemson as 1.5-point dogs. This step up in class should signal an ugly end to their tournament run. Lay the points. Obviously, we know Virginia's calling card is defense. Playing its last eight games w/o second leading scorer Justin Anderson, they held the opposition to an average of just 49.3 points per game. For the season, they finished 1st in the country in points allowed per game at 50.3. Florida State found out the hard way what UVA's defense is all about as they scored just 41 in a loss at Charlottesville last month, one of the games the Cavs played w/o Anderson. The Seminoles often struggle to score to begin with, averaging just 62.9 PPG away from Tallahassee. Playing w/o rest, I feel they are likely again to struggle to score here. It was an early game Wednesday, but still playing B2B days can take a lot out of a team. I'd say it's a virtual lock that FSU won't be duplicating yday's 54.5 percent shooting. I realize that they did lead Clemson by 13 w/ just two minutes remaining, so the game wasn't really as close as the final score indicates. It's just that I see a repeat looming of February 26th when the Noles shot just 32.6% against this Virginia team. Also, the Cavaliers should be motivated after losing the regular season finale at Louisville. 8* Virginia. |
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03-11-15 | Detroit Pistons +14 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show |
8* Detroit (10:35 ET): If one were to only give a simple glance at the Pistons' recent results, then that person would likely have little interest in taking the points here in a matchup w/ the league's best team, the Golden State Warriors. However, I'll note that just about all of the Pistons' seven straight losses have been close (all by 10 pts or less). Yes, losing to the Lakers last night is a somewhat ominous sign. But this will be the most points they've gotten in a game all season and I think it's worth a shot against a Warriors team who we've seen come back down to Earth slightly over the last month. Yes, take the points. Golden State has won four in a row, but the last three times they have been favored by more than 13 points, they have failed to cover. This includes a March 4th home date w/ Milwaukee, a comparable team to the Pistons. This has all the makings of a "trap" game for the Warriors as they are off B2B wins over division foes and their next game will be on the road. As for the Pistons, it's amazing that they average so few points per game given that they are among the league leaders with over 45 per game in the paint. Outside shooting has been a major problem all season as the team was 8 for 35 from long range last night in LA. It's looking less likely that they will make the playoffs, even in the weak Eastern Conference, but simply "laying down" here is not the answer, especially w/ two more tough road games upcoming. This is one of those weird situations where I feel the road dog will be the more motivated side. 8* Detroit. |
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03-11-15 | Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 | Top | 100-105 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
10* Portland (10:35 ET): The Blazers aren't being given enough credit for their strong home court advantage I feel. I have them rated higher than Houston to begin with, so there's definitely value w/ the number opening below 3 points. Portland is 26-6 SU for the year at the Moda Center, holding opponents to an average of just 93.3 points per game. They had won five in a row overall before suffering an embarrassing loss at Minnesota Saturday night. Houston also last played Saturday, so both teams will be well rested, but Portland should be more motivated coming off a loss and they are at home. Lay the small number. We know that both of these teams can score, so I really think that defense is the key. Predictably, Houston has regressed w/out Dwight Howard on that end of the floor to the point they are now allowing 103.8 PPG on the road. Remember what I said about Portland's defensive numbers here at home. Their last time here, the Blazers held Dallas to a season-low 75 points in what was a very impressive looking victory. The home/road designations really affect each team's defensive play as Portland gives up a full four points per game less than their season average here at home. Meanwhile, Houston is four full points ABOVE its season average on the road. I did play against Portland Saturday night, but that was coming off the big win over Dallas. It was also their first game without Wes Matthews. Having had the last couple days off, they now should be better served to deal with his absence. Aaron Afflalo needs to step up now that he's a starter. Also, remember that Portland won in Houston last month, 109-98 as four-point dogs. The one time Houston beat Portland this season is when the Blazers were without LaMarcus Aldridge. Portland is too good at home to be this undervalued. 10* Portland |
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03-11-15 | Los Angeles Clippers +7 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 20 h 35 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (8:05 ET): I have to say this is one of the more head-scratching lines in recent memory. My latest power rankings say that the Clips, if totally healthy, should be a road favorite here! They're not totally healthy (Jamal Crawford & Blake Griffin both OUT) though, but still they should be a lot closer to a pick em. Am I missing something here? I realize that I generally have had the Thunder rated lower than most even in the midst of this comeback of theirs, but that's for good reason as they are just 18-21 ATS as a favorite following three consecutive non-covers. Oh by the way, they are still w/out Kevin Durant! Take the points here. Each of OKC's last six games have been decided by seven points or less. The fact that many of those games have come against bad/slumping/injured teams makes this line all the more curious. Sunday, they only beat slumping Toronto by four points here at home. That same Raptors team lost by double digits last night to the other ascendant team in the Western Conference, San Antonio. So again, I maintain the Thunder are still being overrated by the marketplace. Despite all of the exploits of Russell Westbrook, this is a team that still lost to an injury-riddled Chicago team last Thursday (I was on the Bulls) and barely beat the Lakers and Sixers before that. I concede that they did blowout the Clippers, laying an identical number, the last time they hosted them. But that was before the All-Star Break when Durant was still in the lineup. After taking B2B tough losses to Portland and Golden State, the Clippers recorded a much needed win Monday, holding Minnesota to just 76 points. With Chris Paul not 100%, the effort on the defensive end was much needed. While Paul struggled to shoot, he still had 15 assists in 29 minutes of play. After allowing 85 pts or less in their previous game, Los Angeles is 4-1 SU/ATS this season. I just think that these teams are a lot more even now than what this line indicates. The Thunder are just 5-7 ATS their L12 games against teams with winning records. 10* LA Clippers |
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03-11-15 | American University +3.5 v. Lafayette | Top | 63-65 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
8* American (7:30 ET): What a wild scene this Patriot League Tournament has been. We have the 4-seed and 6-seed playing in the Final as Lafayette and American upset the top two seeds on Sunday. As a result, the 4-seed Lafayette actually winds up w/ the home court advantage as every game in this tournament is played at the higher seed. To get here, the top-seeded Leopards upset top-seed and defending league champ Bucknell, just their second all-time win at Sojka Pavilion. They were actually only three-point dogs heading into that contest, so perhaps it shouldn't be termed as any kind of "major upset." Meanwhile, American U upset second seed Colgate (as 5.5-point dogs) Sunday after jumping out to a big halftime lead. In an unlikely tourney final such as this, my natural inclination is to take the points and that's what I'll do here. American swept the regular season series, including a two-point win on this floor back in January. The Eagles shot the ball remarkably well in both matchups, including going 60 percent from the field in that earlier road win. In the rematch, they scored 88 points on the Leopards as both sides were lights out from three-point range, but the Eagles still led by double digits most of the second half. This American team has put up some remarkable shooting performances this season, including the last game as they were an insane 61.9% for the game, including 7 for 12 on three-point attempts. They led by as many as 20 on Colgate's floor. What's so odd is this team actually averages less than 60 PPG for the season. But they shot the ball well in conference play and I see that keeping them in this one. Interestingly, no matter who wins here, the result of this game will snap a streak that has seen one of the top two seeds win the Patriot League Tournament every season since 1989-90. There were no lines for either of the two regular season matchups, so it's difficult to gauge any sort of "value" w/ this line, but to me in a wide open, winner take all scenario, it's tough not to gravitate towards the dog that won SU two times previously. After all, Lafayette was only 9-9 SU in league play during the regular season. 8* American |
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03-11-15 | Marquette v. Seton Hall -1 | Top | 78-56 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
10* Seton Hall (7:00 ET): It figures to be a short stay in the Big East Tournament for both of these teams as the winner faces Villanova tomorrow. Seton Hall and Marquette both fell apart down the stretch and have little "momentum" coming into MSG. Seton Hall opened conference play w/ B2B wins over ranked opponents (St. John's, Villanova), both at home. But that ended up being the peak of the season as they've since lost 11 of 14. One of those wins though was over Marquette, who they ended up splitting with. The Golden Eagles had themselves a down year, going just 4-14 SU vs. the Big East, though they did win the regular season finale over DePaul. But considering they've been unable to string together consecutive conference victories all season, I'll go against Marquette here. Both teams won on the other's floor during the regular season. The last matchup, won by Marquette, saw poor shooting from both sides as the Golden Eagles made only 1 of 10 three-point attempt while Seton Hall was just 30% overall from the field. Interestingly enough, that was Marquette's ONLY "true" road win of the entire season! They lost their other eight in Big East play, only twice breaking the 60-point barrier. Saturday at home vs Depaul was another bad shooting night from both sides, including the Golden Eagles finishing the game at just 32.7 percent. Depaul, who came in averaging eight 3-point makes per game, was just 3 for 18 from beyond the arc and also attempted only six free throws. Seton Hall had some major attrition down the stretch. A starting guard left the team, Sterling Gibbs was suspended for 2 games and leading scorer Isaiah Whitehead struggled mightily. But still though, I feel there is enough talent remaining here to at least beat Marquette again. The Pirates scored 80 against them in their win back in January and if they can get anywhere close to that here, then they should have no problem winning. Marquette had both lost and failed to cover six straight times before the Depaul game. They lost and failed to cover four games in a row before the win at Seton Hall. So, they are still just 2-10 SU/ATS L12 and in an unfavorable price range. 10* Seton Hall. |
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03-10-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Dallas Mavericks +4.5 | Top | 127-94 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
8* Dallas (8:35 ET): I'll continue to play against Cleveland on the road until they can prove to me they can defeat a top team away from home. Friday, the Cavs went to Atlanta and I was on the Hawks, who won rather easily 106-97 as 1.5-pt dogs. Overall, LeBron and company have lost three of their last four on the road and are just .500 SU there for the season (16-16), outscoring their opponents by less than one point per game. Thus, they are not an ideal candidate to be laying points here against a Dallas team that's averaging 106.0 PPG on its own floor this season. It's just not often that you'll find the Mavs as a home dog (1st time all season!), especially taking this many points. Dallas has struggled to score of late (11 straight Unders!) and as a result over their last six games, their record is just 2-4 straight up and 1-5 against the spread. They did rally to beat the lowly Lakers on Sunday, however. Trailing entering the 4Q, they held the Lakers to just 16 pts over the final 12 minutes, but it still wasn't enough to cover. The team is now only one-half game ahead of San Antonio, putting them in danger of falling into the seventh spot in the Western Conference. There should be a real sense of urgency going into tonight's game and I just can't see them not competing here. Again, this will be the first time all season that they have been a home dog. Cleveland just got done playing four games in five days and while they looked impressive for three quarters (at home) vs. Phoenix, they did let the Suns back in the game and ended up missing out on the cover. Depth is a bit of a concern for HC David Blatt as he really needs to have either LeBron James or Kyrie Irving out on the floor at all times. The team has not played well in the fourth quarter in three consecutive games and they are just 2-5 ATS and 3-4 SU as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 pts this season. Playing without LeBron back in January, the Cavs lost 109-90 at home to the Mavs as Dallas shot a season best 56.4% from the field. Cleveland remains a subpar defensive team. 8* Dallas |
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03-10-15 | Toronto Raptors +7.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 107-117 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
8* Toronto (8:35 ET): The Raptors came out of the All-Star Break w/ a very impressive 105-80 win (as 5.5-pt dogs) over the Hawks, in Atlanta. Since that game, they have been decline. They have just one win in the last nine games and it came at the expense of Philadelphia. Therefore, on paper, a matchup with the streaking Spurs (winners of five straight) certainly does not look ideal. San Antonio has averaged an impressive 111.2 points per game during its win streak while outscoring opponents by almost 17 PPG. But with a bigger game against Cleveland looming Thursday, might the defending champs get caught "looking ahead" here? I think the spread is too high, especially considering the Raptors beat the Spurs last month. Take the points. San Antonio's win streak has coincided w/ their starting five being healthy for the first time all season. Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard both played outstanding games Sunday as the Spurs beat the Bulls 116-105. They had an 18-point halftime lead in that one. Transition points were huge as the Spurs scored 38 of them, 15 off Chicago turnovers. Keep in mind that this is a team that averages the third-fewest number of transition points per game in the entire league. So that was a bit of an abberration. I had the Over in that game, noting the Bulls' poor defensive numbers this season, so I really wasn't surprised to see the Spurs shoot so well. But still, they are just 2-7 ATS their last nine vs. teams with winning records and 0-4 ATS for the season as home chalk in the 6.5 to 9 point range. Toronto is actually a better offensive team on the road. They average an impressive 105.8 PPG in such contests and were able to hang within the number Sunday at Oklahoma City, losing only 108-104 as seven-point pups. They did lead the Thunder at halftime, but did not have an answer for Russell Westbrook (5th triple double in 6 games) even w/ the return of Kyle Lowry to the lineup. Lowry predictably struggled shooting the ball in his first game back and the team didn't get to the free throw line enough (just 9 attempts). Getting the Raptors plus this many points has been rare this season. 8* Toronto |
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03-10-15 | Wisconsin Green Bay v. Valparaiso -2.5 | Top | 44-54 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
10* Valparaiso (7:00 ET): So as I said, I played the correct side (Valpo) in both regular season matchups. The Crusaders cashed the first, as 5.5-point underdogs, in a 51-50 loss. They did lead most of the way in that game, and then in the rematch got their revenge w/ a 63-59 win and cover as 2.5-point chalk. Once again, they're not getting much credit for home court advantage in this tourney final. I have Valpo rated as the better team here and they enter into tonight's game in better form, off B2B hard fought victories over a good Cleveland State team, and they've won nine of 10 overall. As a matter of fact, this team has just five losses all season! Playing on its home floor, they should advance to the NCAA Tournament. Green Bay caught a bit of a break in its tournament semifinal matchup as they drew UIC, who had upset Oakland the previous day. That being said, the Phoenix actually trailed the Flames at halftime before rallying back to take the game and the cash as 12-point chalk. A similar slow start here would likely be the death knell as this is a "true" road game and not only is Valpo 14-1 SU at home this season, but Green Bay has failed to cover four of its last five true roadies and has a losing road record (5-7 SU) this season. Here at home, Valpo is holding teams to just 59.8 points per game and outscoring them by 12.6 PPG. Neither team shot well in either regular season meeting. Both were right around 36% from the field. The difference maker for Valpo could be Alec Peters, who made 47 percent of his three-point attempts during the regular season. With one of their three double-digit scorers (T. Walker) listed as doubtful for this matchup, Peters will likely have to pick up the slack. Normally when points are likely to be at a premium as they will be here, my inclination is to take the points, but the number is so small plus you have Valpo playing on its home floor. The Crusaders actually controlled the two games vs. Cleveland State more than the final scores show, leading for the majority of those contests. They are 9-2 ATS their L11 games vs. teams w/ winning records. 10* Valparaiso |
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03-09-15 | Pepperdine +14.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 61-79 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
8* Pepperdine (9:00 ET): We're down to the semifinal round in the WCC Tournament where prohibitive favorite Gonzaga isn't really playing for much, that is unless you still think they can earn themselves a #1 seed in the Big Dance. I suppose they can, but I think it's still dangerous to be laying points with the Zags in this event, especially after watching them fail to cash in their first tournament matchup, that being Saturday's 81-72 win over San Francisco where they were 16.5 point favorites. Gonzaga actually trailed at halftime in that game and now the line is very similar as they face a Pepperdine squad that has "made waves" as an underdog throughout the season, going 10-3 ATS when taking points. I'm on the underdog here. Pepperdine won its first tourney game 50-47 over San Diego. They were able to overcome scoring just 18 pts in the first half by holding USD to just 31.8 percent shooting for the entire game, a pretty strong defensive achievement. That was the Waves' fifth straight game holding an opponent under 60 pts. It will obviously be difficult to keep that streak alive here against the best shooting team in the entire country, but note that Pepperdine did play Gonzaga tough in both regular season matchups, losing by single digits on both occasions. Up in Spokane, they were able to keep things close despite going 0 for 10 from three-point range as they held the Zags to just 56 points, their season low. Pepperdine also beat BYU both times during the regular season, including one wire to wire win. Gonzaga has not fared well as a big favorite at a neutral setting, failing to cover seven straight times as chalk of 12.5 pts or higher when there is no home court advantage for either side. The streak is almost entirely comprised of WCC Tournament games the past couple seasons. With such little incentive to win by any kind of margin this week, I expect the Zags to come out lethargic yet again tonight and for the underdog to stay within the number. Junior forward Kyle Wiltjer may not play here after injuring his hip in the win over San Francisco. 8* Pepperdine |
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03-09-15 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Milwaukee Bucks -1.5 | Top | 114-103 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): Both of these teams here are off low-scoring victories. In the case of the Bucks, they beat Washington 91-85 Saturday while that same night New Orleans was a 95-89 winner over Memphis. In both instances, each team had to come from behind to pick up the victory. While Milwaukee has been a bankroll busting 2-11 against the spread this season after giving up 85 pts or less, I think they are being drastically undervalued here at home. I say this because New Orleans is just 12-18 SU on the road and also tends not to perform that well when off a SU win (just 12-21 SU this year). I know that Anthony Davis is back, but that alone won't be enough for the Pelicans to win on the road. New Orleans is still without both starting PG Jrue Holliday as well as Ryan Anderson, two of their top four scorers. The team was down 12 at halftime to Memphis Saturday night before exploding in the third quarter (outscored Grizzlies 33-17). It was the second time in three games where the Pelicans rallied to win after trailing by double digits. Eventually, that starts to catch up w/ you. Also, playing w/out Holliday, turnovers have become an issue. They've committed 18 each of the last two games. I still have Milwaukee rated higher in my power rankings, thus this line should be a lot closer to the standard three points for the home team. After a 0-4 SU/ATS West Coast swing, the Bucks returned home Saturday and picked up a big win over the team right in front of them in the Eastern Conference standings. Granted, Washington has seemingly gone in the tank, but the Bucks held them to 38.3 percent shooting and never allowed more than 24 points in any quarter. Khris Middleton exploded for a career-best 30 pts to lead the way for Milwaukee, who is now 17-11 SU at home and allowed an average of just 86.5 PPG its L2 here. The second half of the season has not gone well so far for the Bucks, but things figure to "even out." Michael-Carter Williams is still figuring things out with his new team and the team's recent slump in shooting from behind the arc figures to at least plateau. 10* Milwaukee |
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03-09-15 | Sacramento Kings +11 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 105-130 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
8* Sacramento (7:35 ET): I played against the Kings their last two games, both out on the road, and came away with the cover each time. Saturday, I was pretty fortunate in that Miami was able to force OT and win by five (laying 4.5). That makes it B2B five-point losses for George Karl's team and although the task looks even tougher here against an Atlanta team still smarting from an outright loss to Philadelphia, the number is just too high. Saturday was a clear letdown spot for the Hawks, being one night removed from an impressive win over Cleveland (was on them there!). They had a six-game win streak snapped in Philly, but even as good as they've been here at home all year (29-4 SU), they are still only outscoring foes by 7.3 points per game. I see Sacramento staying surprisingly competitive here. Take the points. The Kings had 61 points by halftime Saturday night and at one point enjoyed a lead as great as 16 points, but still it wasn't enough to fend off the Heat. They also finished with a nice rebounding edge, but somehow converted 12 offensive boards into just 12 points. Those rebounding numbers are key because Atlanta was just outrebounded 55-42 by Philadelphia and while they were w/out Paul Milsap, that's pretty inexcusable. Under Karl, you figure the Kings are going to at least remain competitive and this is a pretty big number the team is getting. Atlanta is just 1-3 ATS as a road favorite of 9.5 to 12 pts this season and 2-9 ATS in that range the L3 seasons. Also interesting is that the Hawks have just one blowout win to their credit since the All-Star Break, that coming against Dallas over a week ago. A team like this, which is admittedly very good, but has snuck up on people is better to take in situations where they are a smaller favorite against better competition, thus being undervalued (make sense?). Having cashed in 65% of their games this season, you have to figure the Hawks will start to regress a bit there and these are the kind of games that tend to make a dent in their backers' bankroll. 8* Sacramento |
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03-08-15 | Charlotte Hornets v. Detroit Pistons -1 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
10* Detroit (6:05 ET): I think these teams are fairly comparable. Both were playoff hopefuls at the start of the season, but each got off to terrible starts. Then, both rallied and got themselves back into contention. However, right now, we find the Hornets and Pistons trending in opposite directions. Charlotte has won four in a row while Detroit has lost its last five. As a result, the Hornets find themselves currently involved in a three-way tie for seventh in the Eastern Conference while Detroit is 4.5 games back and also behind Boston and Brooklyn. Yet, I still have these teams rated even, which means the Pistons should be getting a bit more credit for having the home court advantage here. I'll lay the points. Right before the All-Star Break, the Pistons destroyed the Hornets, in Charlotte by a score of 106-78 as two-point underdogs. The second half of the season hasn't gone nearly as well so far. Poor shooting has again doomed them as they're at just 40.8 percent from the field during their losing streak. However, the irony here is that Charlotte is actually the inferior offensive squad in this matchup, averaging just 95.1 points per game. The Hornets have been well above that average recently, but how long will that last? While they did defeat Toronto (at home) on Friday, Charlotte's other recent wins came at the expense of some pretty bad teams. Detroit typically struggles in the role of favorite, but the line here is pretty inconsequential. They are off a three-game road trip and being back home should help the offense as they average 100 PPG here at The Palace. I like that this team ranks 4th in the league in rebounds per game. So, theoretically, some of those should be coming on the offensive end and negate the misses. They also just played Houston last time out, so no shame in losing there. As for Charlotte, I just can't see Mo Williams continuing to play so well. Owners of a losing road record overall, the Hornets are 0-2 ATS as road dogs of 3 pts or less as well. Look for a little "market correction" with this result. 10* Detroit |
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03-08-15 | Penn State v. Minnesota -8.5 | Top | 79-76 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 14 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (1:00 ET): FINAL HOME GAME ALERT! Neither Minnesota nor Penn State are likely NCAA Tournament bound (would have to win Big 10 Tournament), but for one day we should get a solid performance out of the Golden Gophers as they host a PSU team that has dropped six in a row. To be honest, Minnesota is lucky they're not on a five-game losing streak themselves as their one win during that time came in OT vs. Michigan State, a game that Sparty really blew. Minnesota has been an effective home team this year, going 13-4 SU while averaging an impressive 80 PPG. Penn State has averaged just over 60 PPG its last five, so I don't see them showing up to compete here. This is a revenge spot for the Gophers as well. Back on January 28th, they lost in State College 63-58 as 1.5-pt faves. They shot just 39% in the loss and attempted only eight free throws for the entire game. It had to be disappointing considering they held D.J. Newbill to two points, on just five shots, in the first half and still trailed by 10. Turnovers were the story in the game, for both sides, as Penn State had 16 and Minnesota 15. Something to keep in mind here is that Penn State has still only won eight times in the last 33 matchups w/ the Golden Gophers, and is 2-12 SU here in Minnesota. I'm not sure what's happened to Minnesota down the stretch as six of their first seven Big 10 losses were by five points or less, including the one to Penn State. They followed that loss to the Nittany Lions with a three-game win streak, including a win at Iowa. But since then, they've definitely fallen off. Earlier in the week, they lost here at home to Wisconsin, who came out quite motivated. Defending the three-point line has been a recent issue for the Gophers, but shouldn't be here as Penn State makes just 32.3 percent of their attempts from behind the arc. The Nittany Lions have put forth some truly dreadful performances during the course of their own losing streak, such as scoring 86 points COMBINED in B2B losses to Wisconsin and Northwestern last month. At just 2-8 SU in "true" road games this year, I don't see this regular season finale going too well for them. 10* Minnesota |
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03-07-15 | Colorado State v. Utah State +1 | Top | 75-70 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
10* Utah State (9:00 ET): While Colorado State still has an outside shot at clinching a share of the regular season MWC title, they would need BOTH Boise State and San Diego State to lose and those two squads each play at home today against lesser opposition. So the Rams should probably resign themselves to the 3-seed for the impending conference tournament. That being said, Utah State still could "steal" that 3-spot w/ a win here and loss by Wyoming at New Mexico. So there's a lot on the line in Logan on Senior Night. Having just had a six-game win streak (also 6-0 ATS) snapped earlier this week in Wyoming, I look for USU to bounce back in a major way tonight. Last year, the Aggies swept all three meetings w/ the Rams. This is the first this year. Take the points. Colorado State comes in on a four-game win streak. But all four wins have come at the expense of the bottom of the conference. This is their second road game in four nights after beating Nevada by 16 on Wednesday. I realize that the Rams have only five losses this season, but they're only 5-11 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. Utah State has been a great home team under HC Stew Morrill and this will be the final game he coaches here in Logan as he's stepping down after the season after 17 years on the bench. Here at home, his teams have gone 265-32 straight up during his tenure. That includes an 11-4 mark this year due to them holding opponents to 61.7 points per game. The Aggies turned in their worst defensive performance of the season earlier this week in Wyoming, but with emotions running high (Seniors and Morrill being honored), expect a bounce back. Offensively, USU has three players in the top 15 in the conference in points per game and should bounce back from Wednesday's performance as they've averaged 84 PPG the L2 home games. 10* Utah State |
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03-07-15 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Minnesota Timberwolves +4 | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): The T'wolves have garnered a little bit of respect from the linesmakers lately and I have to say that it's well deserved. Well, they did lose outright (as 7-pt chalk) to Denver the last time we saw them, but that line was pretty ridiculous in retrospect. Before that, the team had covered three of four. They've generally been competitive against the top teams from the Western Conference, including games here at home vs. Golden State, Memphis and the Clippers that were all decided by seven points or less. Here they host a Portland team playing for the first time since losing Wes Matthews for the season. The Blazers have been admittedly impressive late (five straight wins), but are due for a letdown. Take the points. Portland was actually a 10-point favorite the last time they came calling to the Twin Cities, which was all the way back in December, and they ended up losing that game outright by a score of 90-82. Keep in mind that on the road, the Blazers are basically a .500 team at 15-13 SU/14-14 ATS. Their problem is defense, or more precisely a lack of it, as they allow an average of 101.2 PPG away from the Moda Center. Now there has only been one time in the L9 games that the team has allowed more than 100 pts. Plus, they just held Dallas to 75 pts Thursday night. But now w/out Matthews, offense could become an issue. It certainly was the last time they faced the T'wolves as they had only 36 points at halftime. The two sides combined to go 11 for 47 from three-point land in that game. Portland was 10 for 35. With a few off days looming ahead for the Blazers, they could get caught "peeking." 8* Minnesota |
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03-07-15 | Wyoming +2 v. New Mexico | Top | 49-52 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
10* Wyoming (8:00 ET): The famed "Pit" in Albuquerque isn't what it used to be. That becomes apparent when you consider that New Mexico's current eight-game losing skid includes three defeats here at home. The last two were both by double digits and while recent matchups indicate this could be a close matchup, I no longer consider the Lobos "favorite material" even if this is Senior Night (team has only two seniors on the roster anyway). Wyoming, a 22-win team on the bubble, could REALLY use the win here right before the MWC Tournament gets underway next week. With Larry Nance, Jr now back in the lineup and the team coming off a big win over Utah State earlier in the week, I look for the Cowboys to take care of business in this one. What Wyoming was able to do to Utah State Wednesday should not go unappreciated. They won by 23 over an Aggies team that had won six in row. Nance scored 21 pts as it finally appears he is over his bout w/ mono that caused him to miss a few games and definitely had limited him some the previous two. Nance also had a big game the last time the Pokes played UNM, scoring 23 pts including the GW dunk in a 63-62 OT win back in January. Immediately following that loss, New Mexico rebounded with a blowout win over terrible San Jose State. But that was the last time they won a game as they went 0 for February (played eight games). While there have been a fair share of close losses mixed in there for the Lobos, the fact is they were favored in half of those losses. Last Saturday, New Mexico lost at Fresno State. They scored only 55 pts and trailed 30-8 right out of the gate. Something to keep in mind is that Fresno State is hardly a power in the Mountain West. Wyoming is a more formidable foe and in the first matchup in Laramie, the Cowboys were able to win despite not even shooting 40 percent for the game. New Mexico has lost nearly half the games in which they were favored, outright, and I see another being added to the pile tonight. 10* Wyoming |
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03-07-15 | Sacramento Kings v. Miami Heat -4 | Top | 109-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
10* Miami (7:35 ET): For a second consecutive night, I will play against the Kings on the road. Last night, they fell in Orlando, giving up 119 points (in regulation!) to what had been the NBA's lowest scoring team over the past month. Not a good sign. As I said in yday's analysis, there has been little sign of improvement thus far under HC George Karl as the team has suffered two 27-point losses already during his short tenure, plus the lack of defense continues to be a major issue. They've allowed 107+ points in five of their last seven games, including an average of 115.5 the last two. They allow 106.7 PPG on the road for the season, so with a huge edge in this matchup defensively, the Heat are the play minus the points in this one. Miami had an interesting night in its own right Friday. They found themselves down 22 at the end of the 1Q and by 28 at halftime in Washington before a furious rally in the 2H very nearly brought them the whole way back. The biggest deficit they faced in the game was 35 pts. While that all sounds very bad, remember that the team was without Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng and of course Chris Bosh. Goran Dragic also left the game in the 3Q after landing on his hip. So the fact that the team was still able to storm back and hand Wizards backers the bad beat of the night (line was -6.5) shows me something. Wade is expected back tonight, with Dragic more likely to join him than Deng. But the bottom line is that Sacramento is a league-worst 3-17 SU on the road since Thanksgiving and in the second night of back to backs as well. This season has also seen the Kings go just 7-14 SU/6-14-1 ATS vs. the Eastern Conference. Allowing just 96.8 PPG, Miami obviously has a very big edge defensively in this matchup. They held Sacramento to just 83 pts in a road win back in January, continuing a streak of complete domination over the Kings. In the last 17 meetings between these two franchises here in Miami, the Heat have gone 16-1 SU/14-3 ATS. Overall, they are 27-7 SU/ATS the past 34. The Heat, who have struggled to cover the pointspread here at home all season, did post B2B home victories over Phoenix and the Lakers before losing last night on the road. They are in better form and have more to play for at this juncture of the season. 10* Miami |
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03-07-15 | Connecticut +3.5 v. Temple | Top | 63-75 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
8* Connecticut (2:00 ET): UConn took a bad loss Thursday, falling at home to Memphis as 6.5-point favorites, snapping a three-game losing streak. In the past, I've gone over how anything short of a run through the conference tournament will mean the defending Nat'l Champs are sitting home for this year's Big Dance. But the Huskies came through for me last Sunday, beating a very good SMU team, so I'm willing to back them again here as they seek to avenge an early season loss at home where they were seven-point favorites. I realize that Temple REALLY cannot afford a loss here as the Owls are currently projected as one the final four teams in the field of 68. But I'm taking the points anyway as I feel there's a good chance at an upset here. UConn, despite shooting a woeful 27.8% for the game, still managed to find itself ahead Thursday night. That was until Memphis' Shaq Goodwin made a short fall-away jumper w/ eight seconds remaining to give his team the win. Making the loss even more frustrating is that the Huskies had a 22-2 edge in free throw attempts! What made that such a critical loss was that the top five teams in the American all receive byes in the tournament, and now UConn is in a 5th place tie (w/ Memphis) and loses the tiebreaker. But Memphis plays at Cincinnati tomorrow, so a win here for UConn would be potentially huge as it would put the pressure back on the Tigers and possibly mean a first round bye. As for Temple, they are coming off B2B easy wins over East Carolina and Houston, both of whom are non-contenders in the AAC. I have to point to the fact that Temple currently ranks 341st in the country in field goal percentage (.384). That's out of 351 total teams in Division I. So while I'm fully anticipating UConn to shoot the ball better here than they did on Thursday, we can pretty much count on Temple to not shoot the ball well. The Owls have thrown up some real stinkers this year (38 points in a loss at Tulsa, anyone?) and to me, that just makes them a very unattractive candidate to be laying points in a matchup such as this. 8* Connecticut. |
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03-06-15 | Loyola-Chicago v. Indiana State -2.5 | Top | 81-53 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
10* Indiana State (9:30 ET): Because they swept Illinois State during the regular season, Larry Bird's alma mater was able to slide into the 3-seed for the Missouri Valley Tournament, which takes place (as always) in St. Louis. This event is considered a two-horse race between the the prohibitive favorites, Wichita State and Northern Iowa, but here in the Quarterfinal Round, the Sycamores at least get a favorable draw w/ Loyola-IL as the opponent. The Ramblers are another conference foe that ISU swept during the regular season and I'll call for them to make it 3-0 with a win and cover here. Dating back to January 24th, Indiana State began a predictable pattern that would carry through all the way to the end of the regular season. The would win, then lose one. Thus, the fact they won the regular season finale, 60-52 at Bradley, doesn't exactly bode well here. But as mentioned previously, they did beat Loyola twice during the regular season. The last time was on the road, 79-65 as three-point dogs, as they shot 57.5% for the game including 10 of 19 on three-pointers. Loyola is not noted for its offensive prowess as they come in averaging just over 61 PPG. While ISU has not won B2B games since starting MVC play out 5-0, I think they have themselves a favorable draw here. In fact, the Sycamores are a perfect 5-0 SU vs. the Ramblers the previous three seasons. Loyola did close its regular season reasonably well, winning five of eight, but every single one of those victories came at the expense of the bottom of the MVC i.e. the four teams that had to compete in the 'play-in' round of the tournament. The Ramblers have a problem defending w/out fouling. Also, over the last decade, ISU has won at least one tourney game 9 of the 10 years. Look for them to advance pretty easily. 10* Indiana State |
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03-06-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Atlanta Hawks +2 | Top | 97-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Cleveland is definitely moving up the rankings of late, winning 20 of their past 24 games, but I'm not sure they are to the point where they deserve to be favored, on the road, against the only team in the league to have clinched a playoff berth that has BOTH the best SU and ATS records in the league. That would be Atlanta, who comes into this game on a nice roll themselves as winners of five in a row. During that streak, the Hawks have beaten both the Rockets and Mavericks here at home, covering the spread as favorites. Only two times all year has Atlanta been a home dog & the last time we saw it, they beat Golden State here by a score of 124-116. The Hawks are also the ONLY team in the league besides Indiana to have beaten Cleveland twice this season. Take the points. Let's also not forget that Cleveland tends to struggle a bit on the road. They are coming off a big win in Toronto, but they blew all of a 19-point lead in that one before LeBron James took over late. The Cavs are just 13-18 ATS on the road this season; all of their losses since James returned from his January sabbatical have come away from home. Even with all the mid-season acquisitions, this remains a below-average defensive team as they allow over 100 PPG on the road. Wednesday in Toronto, they gave up 68 pts in the second half and allowed the Raptors to shoot better than 54% for the game. While ultimately come playoff-time, I do believe the Cavs will beat the Hawks in the Conference Finals, I like Atlanta's chances here in a one-game format. Let's take a moment to appreciate just what this team has done. They've won 41 of 48 games and have a 10-game lead over the field in the East. They are 38-20-2 ATS at the betting window and have lost only four times all season here at home. They handed Cleveland its worst loss of the season earlier in the year (something the Cavs have also done to them), and I just think the Hawks aren't getting nearly enough credit here. 8* Atlanta |
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03-06-15 | Sacramento Kings v. Orlando Magic +1 | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:05 ET): Sacramento favored/in the pick 'em range on the road just seems odd to me. I realize that whatever post-Jacque Vaughn firing bump Orlando got has now disappeared as the Magic have lost four straight and are last in the NBA in scoring over the past month. But, four-game losing streak aside, they generally play hard and many of their recent losses have been close. Of course, the Kings are the other team in the league that made a recent coaching change, wisely turning to George Karl, but there has been little in the way of noticeable change. Sacramento comes off a 112-85 loss in San Antonio Weds night and w/ this being a rare time we can go against them on the road w/out having to lay points, I'll do it. Orlando won outright in Sacramento earlier in the year, as 6.5-point dogs, 105-96. Granted, DeMarcus Cousins did not play that day for Sacramento. But clearly, I have these teams rated a lot more evenly than the linesmakers do even w/ Cousins on the floor. The Kings are not a good road team at all, surrendering an average of 108.1 points their L19 games away from home game & 106.3 PPG for the year. Wednesday marked their second 27-point defeat already under HC Karl, so again you can see there's been little improvement here since the coaching change. Perhaps this is the game where Orlando gets back on track offensively. They did shoot better than 50% in the first meeting. Four of the Magic's six losses since James Borrego took over as HC on an interim basis have been by seven points or less. Yes, we do need better than that here, a SU win in fact. But note that it's been better teams than Sacramento that Orlando has been playing tough, such as Phoenix, Miami, Atlanta and Chicago. Defensively, we've seen a ton of improvement as Wednesday's 105-100 loss to Phoenix marked the first time under Borrego that they allowed 100+ pts to an opponent. Led by Victor Oladipo's career-best 38 pts, the Magic actually outscored the Suns in three of the four quarters, but one bad 12 minutes of play did them in (outscored 34-17 in 3Q). Again, this is a good price to go against Sacramento on the road. 10* Orlando |
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03-06-15 | Illinois-Chicago v. Oakland -7.5 | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
10* Oakland (7:00 ET): This is a Horizon League Tournament Quarterfinal matchup and I admit Oakland doesn't have much "momentum" after being blown out in its regular season finale (lost by 20) at Green Bay. That cost the Golden Grizzlies the chance at a double-bye into the semis, an opportunity missed that they'll come to regret down the road. I also understand that their record away from home (just 4-12 SU) this season may scare some off from laying the points in this situation, but they are drawing a favorable matchup here w/ UIC, who just played earlier in the week and the Golden Grizzlies swept them during the regular season. Lay the points. This Horizon League Tournament greatly favors the higher seeded teams. Top-seeded Valparaiso is the host, plus the top two got byes into the semis while the top four automatically advanced this quarterfinal stage. Meanwhile, UIC had to defeat Wright State for a second time in four days Tuesday in an opening round game. That game was at home as was the regular season finale vs. the Raiders and the Flames came through with a three-point win (were actually two-point dogs). UIC trailed by as many as 19 at halftime Tuesday night before a thunderous rally was capped by a Jay Harris' three-pointer w/ 1:13 to play. Consider that UIC now has five wins over Horizon League teams all season. Three of them were at the expense of Wright State, and another was over last place Youngstown State. As mentioned earlier, Oakland swept the regular season series from UIC. Both games were played in February and both were decided by double digits. In Oakland, the Grizzlies won by 25. This line falls in between how many they were favored by on the road and at home, so no issue there. And if you think Oakland's record is poor in road/neutral site games, check out UIC's as the Flames have just two wins off campus all season while averaging less than 60 PPG. Oakland has cleaned up at the betting window vs. conference opponents, going 12-4 ATS this season and I see them easily advancing to the semifinal round of the tournament here tonight. 10* Oakland |
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03-05-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Chicago Bulls +3 | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
8* Chicago (8:05 ET): I think that public perception has influenced the market too much when it comes to this matchup of two teams that I have rated very evenly. While the Bulls are missing several key components, and covering the spread here at home has often been an adventure under HC Thibodeau, they are catching the Thunder w/out rest and still w/out Kevin Durant. Oklahoma City needed every bit of Russell Westbrook's fourth consecutive triple double last night as a game w/ lowly Philadelphia went to overtime - at home! I've not been as bullish on OKC as many others and still think the home team deserves to be favored in this one. Take the points. Quietly, Chicago has won 8 of its last 11 games. That includes Tuesday, here at home vs. Washington, by a score of 97-92 as 1.5-point dogs. Despite the win, the Bulls continue to get "disrespected" by the linesmakers. Lost in the post-Derrick Rose malaise is that Thibodeau has his team playing defense again, its long-time calling card. Over the L5 games, Chicago is giving up an average of only 89.2 points per game. That will obviously serve them well here against an unrested foe. The Bulls still are 19-13 SU at the United Center this year, not a great home record by any means, but still respectable enough that it seems odd they'd be getting points in what shapes up as an even matchup on paper. Oklahoma City needing overtime to get by Philadelphia cannot be taken as a positive. They were favored by double digits last night, so it marked just the second time in 11 games that they did not cover. Predictably, Westbrook has been carrying the load in Durant's absence, but I do not like the dynamic at all as he still takes way too many shots for a point guard. Duplicating career-highs of 49 points and 16 rebounds from last night obviously is highly unlikely here. Lost in that tremendous individual performance is that the Thunder actually trailed the Sixers by six points headed into the fourth quarter, again AT HOME! The other four OKC starters combined for all of 12 points last night! I played against this team in Portland last week on national TV, and their 14-19 SU road record continues to make them an unattractive candidate to lay points away from home. 10* Chicago |
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03-05-15 | Texas-Arlington v. Georgia Southern -6 | Top | 64-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
8* Georgia Southern (7:30 ET): We go to the Sun Belt where we find Georgia Southern off a loss and playing its final home game of the year. So motivation should not be an issue, especially due to the fact they also have revenge for a one-point loss suffered at TX-Arlington all the way back in December in the conference opener. Oh, by the way, the Eagles (GA Southern) are currently tied for 1st place in the conference (w/ Georgia State, whom they play Saturday, and LA Monroe). Those two teams play tonight, guaranteeing GA Southern that at best they'll be tied for 1st going into the regular season finale, so a lot is on the line here. Georgia Southern suffered its worst loss (10 pts) of the year in conference play last Saturday at UL-Lafayette. Their previous four losses in SBC play had all been by four points or less. They have not dropped B2B games all season and being back at home tonight should keep that trend alive seeing as they're 12-2 SU for the year at Hanner Fielhouse, where they're holding opponents to just 58.1 points per game. They did not shoot the ball well last time out (just 34.9 percent) and missed their final eight FG attempts after trailing by only three w/ 2:47 to go. I anticipate we'll see much better here as the Eagles averaged 78.5 points their previous two games, and for the year are at 70.4 PPG. The first matchup w/ TX-Arlington saw another really bad shooting night from GA Southern (35.5%), including 5 of 26 from three-point range. The Eagles trailed by double digits at halftime, but still rallied and actually had the lead w/ 14 seconds remaining before the GW layup was made by the Mavericks. Georgia Southern's Jelani Hewett, scored just six points in that game on 1 of 11 shooting, a far cry from the senior's season average of 18.2 PPG average. TX-Arlington, who is in the middle of the pack in the SBC, comes in off a win in their own home finale, 82-73 over Arkansas Little Rock. While they've fared quite well as an underdog much of the year, they were blown out in their visit to Georgia State, so there is precedent for a lopsided affair here. 8* Georgia Southern |
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03-05-15 | Arkansas -2 v. South Carolina | Top | 78-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
10* Arkansas (7:00 ET): The Razorbacks are an extraordinarily high variance team, one that could potentially make a run in the NCAA Tournament or be "one and done." They have impressive road wins this year over the likes of SMU, Ole Miss and Georgia, so while I've been primarily focusing on home teams this time of the year in College Hoops, I think they are a solid value tonight laying a small number at South Carolina. The Gamecocks have really struggled at the betting window in SEC play, going a pitiful 3-13 ATS, but we're catching them off a rare win/cover, that coming at the expense of lowly Mississippi State on Saturday in an 85-68 win as 8.5-point chalk. Arkansas has failed to cover four in a row, including a loss at Kentucky over the weekend, but before that had won seven straight. Further illustrating that high variance, the Hogs had covered five in a row before the current 4-game ATS slide. I'll lay the points here in a game they cannot afford to drop. Last month in Fayetteville, the Razorbacks destroyed the Gamecocks 75-55 as eight-point favorites. Neither team shot well, but South Carolina was particularly brutal at 27.9 percent for the game, including 5 for 24 from three-point range. Sadly for Frank Martin's team, poor shooting has become the norm as the Gamecocks are last in the conference w/ a 40.1 FG percentage. However, it is turnovers that will likely determine the outcome of this matchup. Arkansas forces the most giveaways in the entire SEC (16.4 per game) and in the first matchup scored 21 pts off 20 TO's. For the sake of comparison, South Carolina scored just 1 pt off turnovers. The Gamecocks had also been held to 65 pts or less total in seven straight before Saturday's "offensive explosion" vs. Mississippi State. I'll excuse what happened to Arkansas over the weekend as #1 Kentucky is playing better than ever right now. It is a tad bit concerning that three of their previous five road games before that had been decided by one point. But I just can't see the kind of dramatic swing South Carolina needs taking place here. The Gamecocks aren't a deep team, plus they have only one senior on the roster that they will be honoring. 10* Arkansas |
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03-05-15 | UAB -5 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 59-62 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
8* UAB (7:00 ET): Again, I've been mainly focusing on home teams recently in College Hoops, but this is another instance of a road team being too tempting at the short price. Yes, UAB is off a wild 3OT affair at home vs. Middle Tennessee, winning 100-95, but here they'll be facing an awful Florida Atlantic squad. The host Owls are just 1-15 SU in C-USA play and this won't be their final game at home either; that comes Saturday vs. Middle Tennessee. UAB won this season's first matchup, by nine at home, and looking to preserve their second place status in the conference they are the play tonight. Florida Atlantic has not won in a very long time, January 17th to be exact. I played against them Saturday, at Marshall, the last team they beat. The end result (for the Owls) was a 79-63 loss as 4.5-point dogs. Again, I'm not sure if the linesmakers simply aren't paying attention, but for FAU to be getting this much "respect" at the betting window seems odd. This will now be the fifth time in the last six games that they've either been favored (!) or gotten five points or fewer. Again, this is a team that has lost its last 11 games. Saturday at Marshall, the Owls actually did lead at halftime, but were outscored 42-22 over the game's final 20 minutes and the Thundering Herd shot nearly 60 percent from the field for the game. It's been that kind of season for 1st year HC Michael Curry, whose NBA experience obviously has yet to translate to the college level. At the other end of the conference spectrum, we have UAB, winners of three straight. The Blazers have "cleaned up" in conference play as well, going 13-3 against the spread. I understand the potential apprehension here as the team has just three wins off-campus all season and is laying points, but this is the last place team in the conference they'll be playing here. The first matchup saw UAB pull away late, but of note is that they attempted only nine three-pointers in that contests, making four. Despite its high standing in the conference, UAB is not considered a tourney team right now, so improving their resume and seeding is paramount down the stretch. 8* UAB |
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03-04-15 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Los Angeles Clippers -3 | Top | 98-93 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): This is a big game in the Western Conference, matching up two potential first round playoff opponents. If they were to hold on and win the Northwest Division, Portland would be guaranteed a no worse than a top four seed, but not home court advantage if the 5-seed were to finish w/ a better overall record. That's what makes tonight so important for both teams as the Clippers are sitting in that 5th position, just one-half game off the Blazers' record. Both teams enter in riding three-game win streaks, but I feel the linesmakers are drastically underselling the Clips' homecourt advantage. Lay the short number in this one. To me, Los Angeles is the best team in the West not named "Golden State." They are the only team in the league, besides Golden State and Atlanta, to be outscoring its opponents by a margin greater than six points per game on the season. Here at home, they're outscoring teams by nine points per game. Portland, basically a .500 team on the road, is allowing 101.5 PPG in such contests, which is way above what they give up at home. That's going to be a problem here against a team that averages more than 107 PPG at home. By the way, the Clips have gone 7-3 SU w/out Blake Griffin while still outscoring teams by 6.6 pts per 100 possessions. So, they basically have not missed a beat. The Clippers have also fared quite well in the past against the Blazers. They've taken both previous matchups this season and while both wins came by six points or less, what we tend to see when these two teams face off is Chris Paul outplaying Damian Lillard in the battle of point guards. Paul is 5-1 SU all-time vs. Lillard w/ a significantly better assist to turnover ratio in those matchups. Portland has lost the last seven times it has faced the Clippers on the road and is just 2-8 SU its L10 on the road overall. I'll gladly back the better team at home, laying only a small number. 10* LA Clippers |
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03-04-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Golden State Warriors -13.5 | Top | 93-102 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
8* Golden State (10:35 ET): The Warriors continue to rate as the best team in the league according to my own personal rankings, but they have struggled some of late, including a 110-108 outright loss in Brooklyn two nights ago. That was the tail end of a six-game East Coast swing and while I'm typically leery of teams returning home after a long trip like that, even laying a big number I think Golden State is the play here. They face a Milwaukee team that I played against last night. This will be the Bucks' fourth straight game out West, over a six-day span, and what was once one of the best bets in the NBA has regressed since the All-Star Break, going 1-6 ATS. I smell a blowout here. Golden State doesn't lose often, but when they do, we typically see them bounce back w/ a strong performance their next time out. Case in point was an impressive 113-89 beatdown of Toronto (without rest) Friday, the night after losing in Cleveland. There have only been three times all year where the Warriors have dropped B2B games, but let's be honest, with the line as large as it is here, the SU result should be something taken for granted. Therefore, we turn our attention the margin of victory required as I'll note Golden State is outscoring visiting teams by a whopping 15.8 points per game this season thanks to averaging 114.6 PPG. Klay Thompson, who had an off-night in Brooklyn, should see his numbers return to previous form here. Milwaukee, meanwhile, is in a bad way. They just lost outright to a Denver team that fired its coach earlier in the day and that was after losses to the Lakers and Utah. So after falling to three of the West's non-playoff teams, now they take a big step up in class to face the best the Conference has to offer. Overall, the Bucks have covered just 2 of their last 10 games. This regression was somewhat predictable given the remarkable success they had achieved at the betting window early in the season. They clearly are nowhere near the level of the Warriors and I think it certainly bears mentioning that Golden State has won all 10 games straight up in which they've been favored by at least 12.5 pts, also going 6-3-1 ATS. 8* Golden State |
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03-04-15 | Nebraska v. Illinois -8 | Top | 57-69 | Win | 100 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
10* Illinois (10:00 ET): It's a late night start in Champaign and with the Seniors being honored, I look for a fever pitch. It's not just that the host Illini has for motivation, however. John Groce's team currently finds itself squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble and can't afford a loss, or really even a close win, here. Coming into the day, ESPN's Joe Lunardi projects them to be among the "first four out," a dreaded status that no team wants. The Illini had lost three in a row prior to turning things around w/ an 86-60 beatdown of Northwestern this past weekend and I think the success there "carries over" into tonight where they'll host a disappointing Nebraska team that is in a very bad way right now. Nebraska's NCAA Tournament hopes completely hinge on the Big 10 Tournament. So I can't see the Cornhuskers being able to even come close to matching Illinois' intensity in this spot. After suffering a bad 81-57 loss at Ohio State last Thursday, Nebraska has now dropped six in a row and eight of its last nine. It's been a very disappointing season in Lincoln and things have only gotten progressively worse. In the last two games, the 'Huskers have been outscored by a combined 52 points and they've lost by double digit margins in seven of their last eight defeats. It goes w/out saying that this has been a dreadful road team all year, as they are 1-10 SU in "true" roadies, 2-8 ATS, and averaging just 56.3 PPG in such contests. They are just 5-15 ATS vs. teams with a winning record to boot. Illinois is a very good home team. They've gone 13-2 straight up in Champaign and outscored opponents on average by about 18 points per game. In the past, they've done quite well in this price range, going 24-11 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 pts, including a perfect 4 for their last 4 and 2-0 ATS this season. The Illini also have legit revenge in this one for a 10-point loss suffered back in January. They shot just 27.3% from the field in that game, something that won't be repeated here. At home, they're better than 40 percent from behind the three-point line. Lay the points. 10* Illinois |
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03-04-15 | Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 102-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
10* Memphis (8:05 ET): James Harden will be back in the Rockets' lineup tonight, but the rest of the team is coming off a brutal loss last night in Atlanta (which I was on the right side of!), where they blew a 14-point halftime lead. They were outscored 32-15 in the final 12 minutes. It was clear as they fell apart down the stretch that they missed Harden, particularly his ability to get to the free throw line. Of course, Memphis did not have a good Tuesday either as they lost at home to the suddenly surging Utah Jazz. But of the two teams here, I have the Grizzlies rated higher, which means taking points they are a good value. They're 8-5 ATS as dogs this season, winning seven of those games straight up. Take the points. This will be the fourth meeting of the year between these division rivals, who enter Wednesday separated by only 1.5 games in the battle for first place in the Southwest. Houston has taken two of the first three, including the only previous one here at home, where they were actually five-point dogs back in December. The market clearly had that matchup priced incorrectly, but I think the swing for this one is far too great. The Rockets' three wins prior to last night's game had all been by five points or less and they were somewhat fortunate to get by Cleveland in overtime Sunday as LeBron James had an uncharacteristically awful afternoon at the free throw line. I'm not as high on this team as some others. Memphis, meanwhile, has admittedly failed to cover four in a row. Last night was not a good performance, but they were without Tony Allen, Zach Randolph and Beno Udrih. Allen is guaranteed to be back tonight and he will be the one guarding Harden. Randolph's presence would be huge for the Grizzlies, especially considering their recent offensive woes, but without him the team still took Houston to OT in the last matchup. On the defensive end is where Memphis will win this one as Houston has allowed 100+ pts in nine of its last 11 games. In division games this season, the Grizzlies have averaged a surprising 104.1 PPG, so look for them to come in and "steal" this one. 10* Memphis |
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03-04-15 | Notre Dame v. Louisville -4.5 | Top | 71-59 | Loss | -102 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
8* Louisville (7:00 ET): Both of these teams figure to be high seeds in the NCAA Tournament, provided neither falls apart between now and then. It hasn't always been pretty, but Louisville comes into tonight on a three-game win streak. That was preceded by a stretch where they lost three of four and two of their recent wins have come by two points or less. But then there was the Cardinals' last time out, an 81-59 beatdown of Florida State on the road. HC Rick Pitino called it "probably the best performance of the season" from his team. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is coming off a home loss to Syracuse and w/ a double-bye in the ACC Tourney already locked up, I don't expect much from them tonight. Lay the points. With North Carolina winning last night, L'ville needs to win at least one of its last two games (both at home) and hope UNC loses its regular season finale (also at home) to Duke, in order to earn itself a double bye in the ACC Tourney (those go to the top four teams). As mentioned before, they took a major step in the right direction w/ the big win at FSU over the weekend. Still in the midst of the Chris Jones controversy, five Cardinals scored in double figures. Offensively, this team does struggle at times, but Saturday they had a season-high 32 pts off turnovers. That led to their most points in any game in February. The Cards have generally taken care of business in games which they were favored, going 22-3 SU. Note the small number they're laying here. Notre Dame in many ways is the opposite of Louisville. The Fighting Irish struggle more on the defensive end. Louisville allows only 54.4 points per game at home and I feel that could very well be the difference maker Wednesday night. We saw what happened when the Irish go cold last Tuesday as they lost in South Bend to an unranked Syracuse team, whose zone held them to 34.7 percent from the floor. Notre Dame is 0-3 ATS off its previous three conference losses, and while they do come in w/ extra rest, I see L'ville taking this first ever matchup as ACC rivals. 8* Louisville |
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03-03-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Denver Nuggets +5.5 | Top | 95-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
10* Denver (9:05 ET): The Nuggets are in a terrible way right now and on a personal note, they really let me down Sunday night when they came up short hosting New Orleans, who was w/out Anthony Davis, Jrue Holliday and Ryan Anderson. Taking 5.5 points, they entered the fourth quarter tied w/ the Pelicans, but fell apart from there and lost the game by a final score of 99-92. Overall, it was Denver's sixth straight loss and fifth straight time they failed to cover. They've now lost 12 of 13 straight up. Tonight, they find themselves in the same price range as Sunday against a Milwaukee team that I rate comparably to New Orleans. It may not have worked out last time, but I'll take the points again, looking for the Nuggets to at least keep it close. Milwaukee isn't playing well either right now as they've lost four of five and have been even worse at the betting window, failing to cover 9 of their last 11 games. This was somewhat predictable given that the Bucks were covering at a 67% rate before the Break, which is unsustainable. So I'm not surprised in the least to see them start to "give some back." Remember that New Orleans came into its matchup w/ Denver on a four-game SU/ATS win streak, which is a far cry from what the Bucks have done lately. They scored only 75 pts in a loss at Utah Saturday night, which was preceded by a loss to the Lakers. Their only win over the five games came at the expense of lowly Philadelphia. This is a revenge spot for Denver, who lost to Milwaukee in the first game after the Break by a score of 89-81. That was the last game the Nuggets covered as they were 8.5-point dogs. After going 2-10-1 ATS its last 13, Denver is now the only team in the league to be below 40% ATS for the year. As we've been seeing w/ Milwaukee, a little "market correction" is in order here. The Nuggets have lost 10 straight home games, which is astounding when you consider that the Pepsi Center was one of the last vestiges of an actual home court advantage in this league. The Bucks have averaged less than 80 PPG on 37 percent shooting their last three games, so they're not a good candidate to be laying points. Starting PG Ty Lawson will be back in the lineup tonight for the Nuggets, which makes a difference. 10* Denver |
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03-03-15 | Houston Rockets v. Atlanta Hawks -6 | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): It seems to me that the linesmakers aren't really taking into account James Harden's absence from the Houston lineup here. My own personal power ratings say this should be the line if Harden was IN the lineup, so w/out their best player, it's difficult to make a case for the Rockets here. Houston picked up a big win Sunday, beating Cleveland in overtime, but was very fortunate in that LeBron James had a dreadful afternoon from the FT line, plus the Cavs were w/out Kyrie Irving. Atlanta has continued to maintain the league's best ATS record, currently 38-19-2 overall. I played against them in their last game, which was on the road, but here at home (where they're 27-4 SU), they're a lot easier to endorse. Lay the points. Without Harden, the Rockets obviously become a lot less dynamic. I figure with that being the focus, few will even bother to mention the continued of Dwight Howard, not like that even matters any more. But the loss of Harden is huge considering no player in this league produces more points per game off drives to the hoop than he does. That's 27.1 PPG overall (also #1 in the league) that Houston is going to have to find a way to make up. This is also the first game that Harden will have missed all season. Defensively, while Houston has improved as a team this year, they still allow 103.9 PPG on the road. That's another problem to consider. Atlanta not only has the best spread record in the league, but they have been particularly good when matched up w/ a fellow .500 or better opponent. They've won 21 of 29 such games straight up (league-best) and are an incredible 22-5-2 ATS. This includes a win in Houston back in December, as five-point dogs, 104-97. The Rockets are just 1-5 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a home defeat and though they come into tonight on a five-game win streak, all of those were at home and the last three were all by five points or less. Not having Harden will be too much to overcome tonight against the team w/ the best record in the East and on the injury front its looking like the Hawks WILL have PG Jeff Teague in the lineup. 8* Atlanta |
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03-03-15 | Georgetown v. Butler -3 | Top | 60-54 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
10* Butler (7:00 ET): This is actually the THIRD meeting this season between these Big East foes as they met early in the year in Atlantis w/ Butler coming out on top 64-58 as 3.5-pt dogs. Georgetown won the rematch, at home, by a score of 61-59 but failed to cover the four-point spread. Now finally getting the Hoyas at Hinkle Fieldhouse, I say its advantage Butler, who is 13-2 SU at home this year and holding visitors to an average of just 57.3 points per game. The Bulldogs are off B2B victories and have won eight of 10 overall, the only losses coming by three to Villanova and on the road to Xavier. They're currently in second place in the Big East and can assure themselves of no worse than that finish in the standings w/ a win tonight. Lay the short number. Meanwhile, Georgetown lost over the weekend, falling 81-70 at St. John's. That was the most points they've allowed in a regulation contest all year. G'town did not shoot the ball well and as a result fell behind by as many as 15 points in the second half. Despite playing in the Big East, this will only be the second road game vs. a ranked opponent all season for the Hoyas. The first did not go well at all as they were blown out by Villanova. Keep in mind that had it not been for a three-pointer w/ just over five seconds remaining in the second meeting w/ Butler, G'town would be 0-2 this year vs. the Bulldogs. Butler also averages over 70 PPG, key here, because the Hoyas have a losing record in games where they allow more than 63 points. It was a game of runs for Butler on Saturday vs. Depaul as they led by 10 early only to find themselves down by six in the second half. They ended up winning by 14. That was their second straight double-digit win as last Wednesday, they destroyed Marquette by 21 here at home. The Bulldogs' average MOV here at home this year is an impressive 18.4 points per game. This is their final home game of the year as well, which means they're honoring the seniors, so look for an inspired effort here. 10* Butler |
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03-03-15 | Ole Miss v. Alabama -2 | Top | 82-74 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
8* Alabama (7:00 ET): It's yet another FINAL HOME GAME ALERT and w/ neither 'Bama nor Ole Miss coming into this one in top form, my natural inclination is to back the host laying a small number. The Crimson Tide are off a loss, 73-66 at Vanderbilt, over the weekend. Meanwhile, Ole Miss has lost B2B games, first to Georgia and then to LSU, putting a real damper on the Rebels' NCAA Tournament prospects. Ole Miss is a very strong 9-2 ATS in road games as well as 8-2 ATS as dogs this year, but getting far too much respect from the linesmakers considering Alabama is 13-4 SU in Tuscaloosa this season while giving up just 58.9 points per game. Over its last seven games, Bama has fallen into a rather predictable pattern as they lose one and then win one. I'm obviously expecting that pattern to continue here tonight. What's interesting is that with the line having been six points or less in each of those previous seven contests, the Tide have failed to cover in all four SU losses and cashed in every one of the SU wins. They did suffer a couple outright losses here at home during that time, to Vanderbilt and Georgia (the latter coming by one point in OT), but did win their last time here, 59-51 as four-point chalk over South Carolina. Playing at Vandy on Saturday, they lost by seven after the Commodores exploded for 46 pts in the second half and made 11 three-pointers for the game. The Tide did lead at the break by double digits. Ole Miss is off a 10-point loss at LSU Saturday. They too had a rough go of it defensively after halftime, allowing 50 points to the Tigers over the course of the final 20 minutes. The Rebels themselves did not shoot the ball well and also turned it over 17 times. Both are correctable issues, but it's now three straight games that they've been below 39 percent from the field as well as four of the last five. This is the only regular season matchup between the teams, but Bama has a little payback on its mind from a 12-point loss suffered LY in Oxford, which was the third straight time the home team won in this SEC rivalry. 8* Alabama |
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03-02-15 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State -4.5 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
8* Iowa State (9:00 ET): After going 0-2 last week, Iowa State badly needs to win tonight in Ames against Big 12 rival Oklahoma. Fortunately for the, the Sooners haven't been doing a great job at the betting window of late, failing to cover the spread in four straight. OU was favored in all four of those games, winning the last three, but they predictably are pretty shaky on the road (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) plus only 2-4 SU and ATS as dogs. Last week saw ISU fall for the first time at home all season, to a very good Baylor team, and follow that up w/ an outright loss (as 3.5-pt chalk) at Kansas State Saturday. I feel they'll be the more desperate side Monday night and I can't see the Cyclones losing again at home. Lay the points. Iowa State has legit revenge here for a 94-83 loss suffered in Norman last month. Though the Cyclones were 14 of 29 from three-point range in that game, Oklahoma shot better than 50% overall. I expect a much better effort on the offensive end tonight from Fred Hoiberg's team, which was leading the conference at 79.8 PPG on 48.6% shooting, before last week's two subpar efforts. Going back to last season, ISU had actually won 21 straight on its home court before losing to Baylor last Monday. What happened Saturday in Manhattan was even more illogical as they allowed Kansas State to close the game on a 22-9 run. While the Cyclones were swept by Baylor, they did quite well in their previous revenge spot, that being a 75-38 blowout of Texas Tech here at the Hilton Coliseum. Oklahoma, also part of the big log-jam a top the Big 12, is off three straight close wins. Overall, they've won eight of nine. Saturday at home vs. TCU, they needed to rally back from a 38-26 halftime deficit. This after a similar comeback was needed vs. Texas and they needed OT to get by Texas Tech. While laying points in a matchup of seemingly even teams isn't necessarily ideal, Iowa State is certainly in an ideal price range here as they've won 10 in a row when favored between -3.5 and -6, covering the spread in eight of those games. 8* Iowa State |
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03-02-15 | Boston College +1.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 66-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
10* Virginia Tech (9:00 ET): You're not likely to find either of these teams in the postseason, but I feel the host Hokies are the more likely team to treat this as an important game as they have legit revenge for a bad loss suffered in Chesnut Hill earlier in the year, plus they are catching Boston College off an outright upset of NC State over the weekend. Virginia Tech has now lost five straight and 15 of 17, but I think we can excuse the last two defeats as they were against Duke and Virginia, both of whom are obviously ranked in the top five. Here in Blacksburg, they took Duke to OT, so it wasn't surprising to see them struggle over the weekend at Virginia (who they played very tough here earlier in the year). I smell a rare win for the Hokies Monday night. Va Tech was destroyed in the first matchup, losing 76-52 as six-point underdogs. They trailed by 13 at the half and shot a measly 34% for the game. I have to admit that it's pretty rare to see the Hokies favored as that's happened only four times previously this season, but the line here is pretty inconsequential as a SU win almost certainly = an ATS win. BC is just 2-10 SU away from Chesnut Hill, including 1-7 in "true" road games. Prior to the upset of NC State on Saturday, the Eagles had lost nine in a row themselves. So its not exactly like their in fine form either. Simply put, if there's one ACC game that the Hokies "should" win this year, it's this one. Boston College's performance Saturday was pretty stunning as they shot 56.8% for the game and had a 17-point lead by halftime. But it should be pointed out that they caught the Wolfpack in a favorable situation, off their own upset of North Carolina the game prior. NC State is now 1-7 SU off its last eight regular season victories over the Tar Heels. Remember that the Eagles are a team that has not won B2B games since mid-December, so not getting many points here, it's difficult to make any kind of case for them. Virginia Tech is 7-1 ATS this season when off three or more straight losses and they're also 4-0 ATS when playing w/ just one day's rest. 10* Virginia Tech |
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03-02-15 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Dallas Mavericks -7 | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
8* Dallas (8:35 ET): New Orleans has surprisingly excelled in the second of back to backs all year long, going 11-2 ATS in that situation. But after personally being on the wrong end of their fifth straight win and cover, last night in Denver, I don't see things going the Pelicans way tonight against what will likely be an angry Mavs team. Making what New Orleans is doing right now all the more head-scratching is the fact they've been w/out Anthony Davis for the entire run. But the level of competition somewhat "explains away" the results as w/ the exception of a struggling Toronto team they've played all sub-.500 foes during the win streak. Dallas, off B2B losses, is an outstanding home team w/ a 39-22 overall SU record. Lay the points. Last night in Denver, the Pelicans took control in the fourth quarter, outscoring the Nuggets by seven, which was the final margin. But I can't see this level of play from them continuing. This is a team that previously had only one win streak all year of more than two games. They're still just 12-17 SU on the road, and remember not only are they w/out Davis, but two of their other top four scorers as well, those being starting PG Jrue Holliday and top reserve Ryan Anderson. This step up in class would be difficult under normal circumstances for the Pelicans, but taking it w/out rest is going to be a major problem. Dallas has lost B2B games, leading many to question the Rajon Rondo "experiment." But back at home, they should be just fine here. They're averaging 106.2 points per game at the American Airlines Center and I think long overdue for an offensive explosion. Not only will the Mavs be motivated by the B2B losses, but they also lost the last matchup with New Orleans, which took place in January. That makes this a revenge spot. Though still without Tyson Chandler and Chandler Parsons, that's not as big of a loss as New Orleans being without Davis, Holliday and Anderson as those three account for over 50% of the Pelicans scoring. I just can't see the unrested road team keeping up in this one. 8* Dallas |
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03-01-15 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Denver Nuggets +5.5 | Top | 99-92 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
10* Denver (8:05 ET): I fully realize that the Nuggets are in a terrible way right now. They've lost five straight games as well as 11 of 12 (only win over the Lakers). Due to injuries, the poor coaching of Brian Shaw and other factors too numerous to run through in this space, this team has really devolved into one of the worst in the entire league. Consider that they have lost four in a row by double digits and the last three have been here at home. (Work with me here!). But tonight they look to be a decent bargain, plus the points, as New Orleans comes calling. While the Pelicans have been trending in the opposite direction of late, they were a fortunate winner last time out, and are 0-5 SU/ATS their last five visits to the Pepsi Center. Remember that New Orleans is still w/out Anthony Davis. They also are without two other key players, starting PG Jrue Holliday and forward Ryan Anderson, both of whom rank among the top four in scoring on the team. Of course, the Pelicans are unlikely to draw any sympathy from the Nuggets, whose locker room currently resembles a MASH unit. The Pelicans being without three of their top four scorers makes what they've done of late all the more impressive as they've won four in a row, all as underdogs. But now that they are laying points, on the road, they become far less appealing. The team is 0-4 ATS this season when laying between 3.5 and 6 points away from home. All four of the Pelicans' wins during the current streak have been against Eastern Conference teams. Two were against Miami and the last three were all decided by six points or fewer. Friday, at home vs. the Heat, they rallied back from a nine-point deficit entering the fourth quarter for a 104-102 win. The last three Pelicans games have all come at home. They're just 11-17 SU on the road, so again they are not a good candidate to be laying points here. My own personal power ratings indicate this line should be several points lower and in fact the last time New Orleans laid this many points in a road game, I played against them and they lost outright in Orlando. Take the points here in what's a classic case of the market overreacting to recent results. 10* Denver |
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03-01-15 | Oregon v. Stanford -6 | Top | 73-70 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
10* Stanford (7:00 ET): After suffering through a 1-4 SU stretch (also went 0-5 ATS), Stanford has rallied back to take the first two of this three-game home stand and tonight will be the final game in Palo Alto ever for the seniors. I admit that I was a bit surprised when I saw they were were favored by this many points over an Oregon team that is one spot above them in the Pac 12 standings. But this will be the fourth time during the conference schedule that the Ducks have had to play B2B road games and they've yet to sweep any pair. The last time they followed a win at USC w/ a loss at UCLA. They've got a little more time in between games this time, but this is a place they're just 4-12 ATS their L16 visits. I'll lay the points. Stanford's defense at home compared to Oregon's lack of it on the road is a big key for me in handicapping this matchup. The Cardinal allow only 59.5 PPG here in Palo Alto, a big reason why they've won 13-2 SU here. Meanwhile, Oregon allows 78.3 PPG away from home and that's played a significant role in their losing road record. Stanford is off a truly dominant performance as they beat Oregon State 75-48 Thursday. They actually trailed at the break before outscoring the Beavers 47-18 after halftime! However, this is still a "bubble team" that needs to keep winning. A loss here might make winning the conference tournament a necessity. Stanford will wrap up its regular season with a pair of road games against the Arizona schools. Winning in Tucson in particular seems challenging, so that makes winning here all the more imperative. Oregon was kind to me last Sunday, beating Utah outright. But that was in Eugene. With their defensive issues, I don't see a repeat of Wednesday when they held Cal to just 69 points. 10* Stanford |
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03-01-15 | Siena v. Monmouth -8.5 | Top | 57-63 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 53 m | Show |
10* Monmouth (4:30 ET): Final home game alert! This is the regular season finale for both MAAC teams and w/ a win Monmouth would guarantee itself no worse than a top four seed in the upcoming conference tournament. If by some chance, Manhattan were to lose at home vs. Quinnipiac, they could finish third. But first, the Hawks must beat Siena. That shouldn't be too difficult considering they've already done that, on the road, as two-point underdogs two weeks ago. That started a major slide for Siena, who comes into Sunday on a four-game slide, both SU and ATS. Three of those losses were at home and overall the Saints have dropped eight of their last 10 games. Look for Monmouth to roll in this one. Monmouth, surprisingly, is just 7-7 SU on the road. They just lost here Thursday, as three-point chalk, to Rider. Neither team shot well in that one and the final result meant the Hawks split their four games this season against the top two teams in the MAAC. After winning the first matchups against both Iona and Rider, Monmouth just lost to each in their last two games. But the two losses were by only four total points and before that the Hawks had won four in a row. They clearly are the team in better form here and with it being Senior Day, they should be more motivated side, especially after HC King Rice called out his upperclassman after the loss Thursday. Siena is not a good team defensively. In the first matchup between these teams, Monmouth achieved its second highest point total of the season. That shouldn't be too much of a surprise given that Siena allows the most points per game in the MAAC (75.0) and they are next to last in both overall (46.5) and 3-point field goal percentage (37.7). Monmouth shot 52.9 percent overall in that first meeting, including 6 of 12 from three-point range. Making Siena's task even tougher here is that they very well could be w/out leading scorer Rob Poole, who is dealing w/ an injured right ankle. HC Jimmy Patsos has already come out and said he's likely to rest Poole for the conference tournament. 10* Monmouth |
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03-01-15 | SMU v. Connecticut +1 | Top | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
8* Connecticut (2:00 ET): Anything short of winning the AAC Tourney means UConn will not even get a shot at defending last year's National Championship this March. The Huskies are only 16-11 straight up this year and have generally been a disaster at the betting window where they are 9-15 ATS for the year, including 3-10 their last 13. Today, they are virtually a pick 'em against the team that currently leads the American, that being Larry Brown's SMU Mustangs, who are winners of five straight. Actually, SMU is tied for the conference lead w/ what I feel is a vastly inferior Tulsa team and that's who the Mustangs will conclude their regular season against next Sunday. Can you say "look ahead?" SMU averages only 64 points per game on the road. This will be their second away game in four days after they won in Memphis on Thursday, doing so by a final score of 66-57 as 2.5-point chalk. But the last time the Mustangs found themselves in this situation, they failed to cover laying 11 against a poor Houston squad. Not coincidentally, that game marked the lone time over the last five games that SMU failed to cover. They did follow that ATS loss up w/ a win and cover at the expense of these Huskies, taking the game 73-55 as 6.5-point favorites. But that game took place in Moody Coliseum where SMU rarely loses. Thursday's game at Memphis was a lot closer than the final score indicates and the Mustangs benefited from their opponents attempting only seven free throws the entire game. UConn has won B2B games coming into today and five of the last seven. Four of those wins have come at the expense of East Carolina and Tulane, but still you have to like the kind of defense the Huskies are playing as they've allowed 34.9 percent shooting during the win streak. Here at home, they allow just 55.7 PPG. With SMU playing for a regular season championship its next time out and UConn in full desperation mode, I feel the defending Nat'l Champs will come out as the more motivated side Sunday afternoon. 8* Connecticut |
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02-28-15 | Wyoming v. UNLV -1.5 | Top | 57-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
8* UNLV (8:00 ET): This isn't the final home game for UNLV, but it is a bounce back situation after I played against them earlier in the week and they lost 83-65 at Utah State. Dave Rice's Rebels definitely have taken a step back this year, but as I've been doing throughout this three-game report, I'll cite both the revenge angle and homecourt as key factors in handicapping this matchup. This is a rematch of the Mountain West opener for both squads, won by Wyoming 76-71 back on New Year's Eve. But here in Vegas, I expect things to go differently as the visiting Cowboys are averaging a weak 54.9 points per game away from Laramie. Lay the short number in this one. In that first matchup, UNLV actually had itself a 37-32 halftime lead. Both teams ended up shooting the ball extraordinarily well, in particular UNLV, who was better than 55 percent from the field. It's pretty tough to shoot that well on the road and not come away with the victory, but making only seven free throws in the game really hurt. Also, it was a terrible spot for the Rebels as they had a look ahead to Kansas four days later, plus they had recently played both Utah and Arizona. Wyoming is also a strong home team. But here at the Thomas & Mack Center, the Cowboys have lost 18 of their previous 20 visits. Considering that, this is a small number we can get away w/ laying. Wyoming is off a home loss Weds night to Fresno State. There's no way to sugarcoat that one; it's simply an awful loss that dropped the Cowboys into a fourth place tie in the MWC w/ Utah State. Even more discouraging is the fact that game vs. Fresno State marked the return of Larry Nance Jr to the lineup after he (their leading scorer) had missed the previous four games w/ mono. During that time, the team went just 2-2 and the two wins came against the two weak links of the conference, Nevada and San Jose State. These teams have experienced drastically difference results at the betting window of late w/ UNLV 6-2 ATS its last eight and Wyoming 2-7 ATS its last nine. 8* UNLV |
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02-28-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Miami Heat +5.5 | Top | 93-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
10* Miami (7:35 ET): Atlanta is nine games clear of the rest of the Eastern Conference, so how much you believe in this team is irrelevant for now because they will be the top seed going into the playoffs. After things looked ugly in their first game after the All-Star Break (105-80 home loss to Toronto), they've won three straight, although things were a little closer than expected last night at home vs. Orlando as they won only 95-88 laying double digits. Now having to turn around in the second night of back to backs and lay points in another division matchup can be tricky. I realize that Miami is without rest as well (lost last night in New Orleans) and has struggled to cover the spread at home this year. But this is a good value taking points. The Heat definitely have their issues. Soon after everyone was touting them for bringing in PG Goran Dragic, we learned that Chris Bosh would be out for the remainder of the season due to blood clots discovered on his lung. The teams ranks 28th in points per game, last in rebounds (despite Hassan Whiteside's presence) and 28th in assists. They are also just 10-16 SU and 9-17 ATS at home. But what's keeping them afloat is a defense that's allowing just 96.8 PPG, 4th best in the entire league. Last night saw them really let one slip away as New Orleans scored 31 pts in the fourth quarter (remember, no Anthony Davis). Previously, Miami was 23-3 SU when leading after three quarters. I think they'll be the more motivated side tonight. Going back to the end of last year, Atlanta has actually won four in a row over the Heat, including a pair of victories this season by an average of 10.5 PPG. I'm just not so sure that I can trust them in this spot. Eventually, they are due to start giving some back at the betting window as a 67% ATS record is incredibly difficult to sustain. Miami, meanwhile, is likely to start turning things around at home and I actually like this upcoming stretch of games for them despite the recent subpar play of both Dragic and Dwyane Wade. 10* Miami |
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02-28-15 | Syracuse +12.5 v. Duke | Top | 54-73 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
10* Syracuse (7:00 ET): You can't say that the 'Cuse isn't playing hard even in the wake of a postseason ban as they're coming off an outright win at Notre Dame earlier this week and have also beaten Louisville this month. They also very nearly upset Duke at the Carrier Dome as well, losing 80-72 and just missing the cover as 7.5-pt dogs back on Valentine's Day. Despite a subpar game there from big man Rakeem Christmas, the Orange actually had the halftime lead before wilting late. While this time the game is at Cameron Indoor and Duke has won eight in a row, Coach K's team is certainly not infallible as you can look to this week's close call at Virginia Tech for further evidence of that. Take the points. Duke has been on quite the roll lately and its offensive efficiency over the L8 games rates as the best in the entire country. But be wary as two of the Blue Devils' last three victories have come in overtime, including Wednesday against a poor Virginia Tech squad. Yes, that game was in Blacksburg, but the Hokies are just 2-13 SU in ACC play and were able to stay in the game despite Duke shooting nearly 60 percent! That right there should tell you that the Blue Devils have their issues defensively and sure enough only one of their previous five opponents didn't get to at least 70 pts in regulation. That lack of defense obviously makes it difficult to cover spreads as high as thie one. For the year, Duke is just 12-13 ATS when favored, including a 6-6 mark at -12 or higher. Syracuse was once 13-4 SU, but once news of the self-imposed tourney ban hit, you knew the team was likely to slide. They're just 5-6 SU L11 games, but with one exception (a head-scratching loss to Clemson), the Orange have remained competitive throughout. Four of their last five defeats have been by single digits and considering this will be their fourth ranked opponent in the last five games, that's not too bad. This will be the most points a Jim Boeheim coached team has gotten from the linesmakers in any game in the last decade. 10* Syracuse |
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02-28-15 | Florida Atlantic v. Marshall -5 | Top | 63-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
8* Marshall (7:00 ET): I'm sticking w/ C-USA for the second game of this three-game report and a similar mentality as this will be Marshall's final home game of the season. These are two teams near the bottom of the league, but the Thundering Herd are clearly in better shape as they come off an 87-69 win (-5) over FIU on Thursday right here in Huntington. Meanwhile, FAU has now dropped 10 in a row and they're in last place in the standings w/ only one conference win all season to their credit. Ironically, that one win came at the expense of Marshall, back on January 17th, so revenge will be in the air tonight for the Thundering Herd. Lay the points. Marshall is a terrible road team, but a respectable 9-7 SU here at home. They've won five straight at the Henderson Center, including victories over both UTEP and Western Kentucky, who are near the top of the C-USA standings. Thursday's win not only clinched a spot in the postseason tournament for the Thundering Herd (more on that in a sec), but it also avenged an earlier season defeat, something that again they are looking to do here. All the motivation for this matchup lies w/ the home team, who still can move up in the standings and improve its seeding for the conference tournament. Meanwhile, it's all over but the shouting for Florida Atlantic. Conference USA is a 14-team league, but only 12 teams make the postseason tournament. One of the two that won't is Southern Miss because of a self-imposed ban. The other will be FAU by virtue of the fact the only team they even have a mathematical chance of catching is Southern Miss. The Owls got Marshall in the second of two road games in three nights for the first meeting, a situation that they themselves are now in and away from home FAU is averaging just 57.9 points per game. I'd be shocked if the road team was even the least bit competitive here, while the home side should be supremely motivated. 8* Marshall |
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02-28-15 | Old Dominion v. North Texas +5 | Top | 70-57 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
8* North Texas (5:30 ET): The Mean Green are on quite the run here, aren't they? Five consecutive outright wins isn't something that should be taken lightly, though it should be pointed out that they weren't getting more than four points from the linesmakers in any of those contests. Today marks the final home game of the year, which means its time to honor the seniors, and that's a motivational tool one simply has to factor into their handicapping down the stretch. While only one of those five victories came against the top of Conference USA, it's tough not to like UNT as they host Old Dominion Saturday and are getting points. Even after three consecutive wins and covers, ODU is probably not going to catch conference leader Louisiana Tech. But they are fighting for seeding in the C-USA Tournament and a second place finish is certainly a possibility. That being said, this game is NOT in Norfolk where the Colonials have yet to drop a game all season. They're just 4-5 SU in "true" road games and that's after beating bottom-feeder Rice on Thursday. So often, we see College Basketball teams struggle when having to play a second road game in three nights (common in leagues such as C-USA & the Pac 12) and that's what I think we'll see here w/ Old Dominion. When these teams met earlier this year, it was ODU that won, 61-50, but North Texas that left w/ the cash as 14-point dogs. Clearly, the Mean Green were going to get more respect from the linesmakers in this rematch w/ the game taking place on their home floor and because of the recent run. North Texas hasn't suffered a regulation loss at home since January 4th. Both teams shot very poorly in that first matchup, but UNT killed themselves by missing 13 of 16 from behind the three-point arc. Considering that ODU averages just 62.4 points per game away from home, even a reasonable offensive performance from the home team should keep them in the money here. Look for the Mean Green to continue this run of theirs. 8* North Texas |
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02-27-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Portland Trail Blazers -5.5 | Top | 112-115 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:35 ET): This is a tough spot for Oklahoma City, who is coming off an overtime loss Thursday in Phoenix. I had the Suns in that one, as 5.5-point underdogs, and will go against the Thunder here as well. We all saw how good Portland was at home Wednesday night in another nationally televised affair when they took care of San Antonio, winning by a final score of 111-95 as just 2.5-point favorites. I'm clearly not as high on OKC's prospects as some others as they're still just a borderline top 10 team in my book while the Blazers have been much more consistent all season, particularly here at the Moda Center where they are 24-6 SU for the season. With a small number, I'll call for them to cover the spread. Portland currently owns a six-game lead over Oklahoma City in the Northwest Division. While few still even pay attention to the divisions in the NBA, they still do carry some importance as a first place finish guarantees you a top four seed in the playoffs. A win here would be huge for the Blazers as it would guarantee a win in the season series w/ the Thunder, which has already seen the first two games go the way of Portland. Kevin Durant didn't play in either of those games and obviously won't here either. As I mentioned in yday's analysis, I don't care what anyone wants to say about Russell Westbrook, the Thunder are absolutely worse off w/ Durant out of the lineup. Also, to update the record from yday, the team is now just 13-18 SU on the road this season, giving up over 101 points per game. Playing in the second game of back to backs hasn't really hurt Oklahoma City thus far (eight straight wins), but I can't imagine that they've had a tougher situation than they one they are in tonight, coming off an OT loss and facing one of the best home teams in the entire NBA. Plus, no team has won nine in a row when unrested the L2 seasons. LaMarcus Aldridge didn't even play that well in the win over San Antonio Weds night, finishing w/ just 11 pts. Both he and Damian Lillard have played well in the past vs. OKC w/ Aldridge averaging 26.6 PPG the L8 home matchups and Lillard going for 40 the last time the two teams played. Lillard's counterpart Westbrook I thought took WAY too many shots last night, an ominous sign of things to come. 8* Portland |
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02-27-15 | Valparaiso v. Cleveland State -3.5 | Top | 56-53 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
10* Cleveland State (10:00 ET): This is a huge game for Cleveland State and a huge game in the Horizon League. The Vikings trail Valparaiso by one game going into this, the regular season finale for both. The number one seed in the impending Conference Tournament is on the line here and a win by the favorite (CSU), coupled w/ a Green Bay win over Oakland Sat night would hand the Vikings the top spot, which means they would get to host the Conference Tourney. (If Oakland wins, can also clinch top spot if they finish with the higher RPI). Getting a top two seed in the Horizon is huge because it means a double bye into the semifinals. I will be attending this game and plan on cheering the home team to a win and cover. Lay the points. The reason that Cleveland State still has a chance to win/share the Horizon League regular season championship is that Valpo lost Weds night at Detroit, 63-60 as 4.5-pt road favorites. That game was decided on three made free throws in the final second & Valpo shot the ball poorly overall. It was only the fifth loss of the season for the Crusaders, but the fifth time in the last seven games that they failed to cover. They've only been an underdog in two games all year, but lost both times. Meanwhile, Cleveland State is also off an outright loss, Sunday to Milwaukee as four-point favorites by a score of 66-60. It was a dreadful spot for Gary Waters' Vikings as it was their second road game in three days and they were coming off a dramatic overtime win against Green Bay where their top three players all logged 43+ minutes. Still though, I think that it's a huge edge for the home team having been off since Sunday while Valpo now finds itself playing a second road game in three nights. While I have to say Cleveland State laying this many points is a tad bit surprising, what's encouraging is the fact the did cover against Valparaiso on the road. The Crusaders have only one home loss all year (New Mexico) and the Vikings were very close to making it two as they largely outplayed them. This Cleveland State team went 3-0 ATS vs. Louisville, Virginia & VCU earlier this year and you shouldn't be fooled by the record as seven of their losses have come by six points or less. 10* Cleveland State. |
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02-27-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Chicago Bulls -6 | Top | 89-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:05 ET): Typically, when a team with as poor a win percentage as Minnesota wins this time of the year, you'll want to play against them the next time out. That's what I'll be doing here as I think that the 13-43 T'wolves are getting far too much respect tonight in Chicago. Yes, the Bulls must get over the loss of Derrick Rose, but shouldn't they be used to it by now? They were in a bad spot Wednesday having to take the court less than 24 hours after learning the news that Rose's season would be over & it showed w/ a 98-86 outright (-7) home loss to Charlotte. Needless to say, I expect a far different result this go around. Minnesota surprisingly has had a pretty good month, winning five of its last eight straight up, but all but one of those victories came at home. On the road, they are just 5-23 SU for the season and giving up a horrible 109.7 points per game. The Bulls have of course had their fair share of issues covering the spread at home the L3 seasons, but they did win in Minnesota earlier in the year (only by one point). But still, they were favored in that game, meaning the line should definitely be higher here. My own personal power rankings suggest we should be working w/ a double-digit number here. Off a win this year, Minnesota is just 2-10 SU and 4-7-1 ATS. Off a double digit win, they are 0-3 ATS. They hooked up w/ a slumping Washington team Wednesday night and beat the Wizards w/ shocking ease, 97-77, a game that saw Kevin Garnett make an emotional return to the Twin Cities. It will be difficult for them to duplicate that emotion out on the road, nor will they likely enjoy the same massive edge in free throw attempts here that they did vs. the Wizards. Meanwhile, Chicago had its worst three-point shooting night of the year Wednesday, so they can only go up here. The Bulls are averaging 103 points per game here at the United Center and I'll call for a big-time offensive effort in what almost amounts to a "must-win" for them. 10* Chicago |
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02-26-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Phoenix Suns +5 | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (10:35 ET): Well, it did appear as if Oklahoma City was finally taking off. They've won and covered each of their last seven games, and all but one of those victories has come by a double digit margin. But just as the team was playing its best ball of the season, Kevin Durant injured his foot again and surgery will have him out for the next 1-2 weeks. Though Russell Westbrook has done an admirable job carrying the Thunder this season, I feel this is a tricky spot laying points on the road to a team they trailed in the standings just a week ago. Phoenix just blew out Denver last night, on the road, and should be able to hang here. The Thunder are 2-0 vs. the Suns this year, but both of those games were played in Oklahoma City. OKC's two closest games during this current win streak were against Denver and Charlotte, two inferior teams, and I bring this up because both of those were road games. Remember that this Thunder team still sports a losing road record (13-17 SU) for the season. That has a lot to do w/ the fact they allow 101.3 points per game away from home. Phoenix can definitely put the ball in the basket here at the U.S. Airways Center (107.4 PPG) and they come in as the league's third highest scoring team overall. I don't care how anyone wants to tout Westbrook's exploits, the Thunder are going to miss Durant these next several games. Phoenix is 9-2 ATS this season when off a win by 10 or more points. Normally, I might be concerned about the fact that Oklahoma City leads the league in rebounds per game, but just last night the Suns set a NBA season high, pulling down 65 boards in the 110-96 win at Denver. Yes, the Nuggets are a bad team dealing w/ a ton of injuries right now, but Phoenix desperately needed a win after the Dragic trade. They'd dropped five in a row previously, but of particular interest here is the fact that four of those had been by five points or less. My own personal power ratings say that the Suns should still be favored in this one so I'll take the plus the points. 10* Phoenix |
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02-26-15 | BYU -4 v. Portland | Top | 82-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
8* BYU (10:00 ET): With four straight wins and covers, BYU is a hot team right now, but they absolutely cannot afford to get caught looking ahead to Saturday's rematch with Gonzaga. That's because the Cougars are firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble and a loss here to Portland might very well burst their entire season. Fortunately, they're laying just a short number and the host Pilots have dropped B2B games, including one to Pacific last Saturday in overtime where they were four-point favorites. Portland is the one more likely to get caught looking ahead towards the weekend as they have Senior Night against San Diego. Lay the points here. All four of BYU's wins during the current win streak have been of the dominant variety. The closest margin of victory they had was last Thursday's 75-62 decision over San Diego, which was the final game of the year in Provo. Tyler Haws again led the way, this time scoring 28 points as he has a good chance of breaking Jimmer Fredette's school record for scoring. As a team, BYU is averaging a whopping 87.3 points per game on the road, which is incredibly impressive. Overall, they are the top scoring team in the country and also third in assists. I just don't see how a Portland squad w/ a pretty pedestrian offense is going to be able to keep up. These teams first met right before the New Year and the Cougars scored 97 points, yet failed to cover the spread as 10.5-point favorites. The 88 pts scored in that game by Portland still are their season high. They haven't scored 80 or more in a game since. With BYU having last played exactly one week ago and Portland having been involved in an overtime game Saturday, you do have to give a slight situational edge to the road team right off the bat. Then there is the motivation of trying to garner a NCAA Tournament berth as well for the Cougars, who are a solid 7-3 ATS on the road this season. Simply put, they are the much better team that has everything to play for. 8* BYU |
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02-26-15 | Houston v. Temple -14.5 | Top | 54-66 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
10* Temple (7:00 ET): At first glance, you might be a bit leery of laying this many points w/ a Temple squad coming off B2B ugly losses. But don't be. At 12-2 straight up in Philly, they have a solid homecourt advantage and the losses they are coming off both came on the road. Also, they have an ideal opponent on Thursday. Houston has not only lost five straight, but they're 1-13 SU in conference play and in last place in the AAC. Now w/out the services of junior PG LJ Rose, the Cougars' season is for all intents and purposes over. This game should turn into a real blowout pretty quickly. Lay the points. Before losing at both SMU and Tulsa (two top teams in the American, mind you), Temple had actually won seven in a row. All but one of those victories came by a double digit margin, so it's not like the Owls are unaccustomed to winning by big margins. While their offense could use some work, they are holding visiting teams to just 57.5 points per game here at the Liacouras Center this season. At 19-9 overall, and 10-5 in conference (tied for 3rd place in AAC), this is a team firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble and in fact ESPN's Joe Lunardi currently has them as a part of the dreaded "last four in" category. They certainly can't afford a loss here and a blowout win would really go a long way. Meanwhile, in case you couldn't tell by looking at their record, Houston is in a really bad way right now. After three straight close losses, two on the road and the other at home vs. SMU, by a combined 10 points, they lost by 10 at home to Cincinnati Saturday and lost their starting point guard in the process. Rose had just scored 25 pts in the previous game and his assist to turnover ratio was a very solid 2:1 for the season. Temple really can't play any worse than they did Sunday at Tulsa (19-4 second half run was the difference) and while neither of these teams shoots the ball well, the Owls big-time edge in rebounding looms large. This is a classic case of a team w/ everything to lose taking on another w/ nothing to gain. 10* Temple |
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02-25-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Utah Jazz -9.5 | Top | 100-97 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
8* Utah (9:05 ET): I admit that this seems like a lot of points to lay w/ the Jazz, but consider the opponent is the Lakers, who are off a SU win. That's actually a negative for the road team as far as I'm concerned as bad teams are typically unable to sustain any kind of momentum this time of year. Consider that Sunday night's 118-111 win over Boston was just the Lakers' third over the past 20 games, a stretch that has seen them go 5-13-2 against the spread. Meanwhile, Utah is playing its best basketball of the season as they've won four of five, the only loss coming by five points to Dallas. Last month saw the Jazz barely cover an eight-point spread here at home vs. LA (won by nine) and I think this one has all the makings of a bigger blowout. Utah has actually been a competitive team for a longer stretch than you might think. They've gone .500 straight up over the L30 games and that has a lot to do w/ the fact they've allowed just 93.4 PPG during that span. Only three teams have been better on that end of the floor. They've held four of their last five opponents below 90 points. If they can do that here to the Lakers, then they should be in very good shape considering their opponents are the worst defensive team in the entire league at 106.4 PPG and over the L5 they've been even worse (110.6 PPG allowed). It certainly doesn't help that they've barely averaged 40 percent shooting over their L11 road games, all losses, either. Prior to beating the undermanned Celtics on Sunday, the Lakers had failed to cover five in a row. Three of those losses were by double digits. The win Sunday came in overtime, and was owed in large part to the bench scoring 84 points, 25 of those coming from Jeremy Lin. I don't see a repeat of that taking place here tonight against the defensively-minded Jazz. The Lakers starting five contributed only 34 points TOTAL in an overtime game, mind you. This team's last win in regulation came all the way back on January 9th! Meanwhile, Utah has just beaten both Portland and San Antonio here at home, so this drop in class should be a walk in the park. 8* Utah |
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02-25-15 | Dallas Mavericks v. Atlanta Hawks -6 | Top | 87-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Tuesday saw me go w/ Dallas (and win!) as they hosted an unrested Toronto team. Perhaps it's too easy just to credit the situational edge as to why the Mavericks pulled away late, turning a three-point deficit going into the fourth quarter into a seven-point win and cover. But I don't think it's a coincidence and now the Mavs find themselves in the exact same situation last night's opponents were in. While Dallas is 9-4 SU this year playing in the second night of back to backs, the opponent tonight presents a far greater challenge as rested Atlanta looks to get things going following a somewhat sluggish start to the second half of the season. Lay the points. After that incredible run in the month of January, the Hawks had actually dropped three of four overall going into Sunday afternoon's date in Milwaukee. They got back on track there, beating the Bucks 97-86 as five-point favorites, doing so despite shooting just 40.2 percent from the field. One of the most impressive things about Atlanta's season to date is their 14-5 ATS mark against the Western Conference (15-4 SU). They're also 21-5 ATS when taking on a team w/ a winning record. Well-rested and 25-4 SU at home for the year, this is a situation the Hawks should be able to take advantage of, not to mention this is league's best team ATS at 67.3 percent. These teams already played once this season w/ Atlanta winning in Dallas, 105-102 as 4.5-point dogs. That win came all the way back before XMas and what's interesting for the rematch is who might be out. Dallas looks to be missing both Chandler Parsons and Tyson Chandler. I don't think Rajon Rondo is long for this team either, considering his relatively poor play to this point and "blowup" w/ HC Rick Carlisle last night. It is concerning that Atlanta might be without Jeff Teague (illness), but consider he was out of the lineup the first time these teams played and the wildly underrated Dennis Schroeder contributed a career-high 22 points. So with or without Teague, the Hawks should be just fine. 8* Atlanta |
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02-25-15 | Miami Heat v. Orlando Magic +3 | Top | 93-90 | Push | 0 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
8* Orlando (7:05 ET): There can be no denying that the Magic have played much better since firing Jacque Vaughn. That's a fairly predictable trend in NBA circles as most of the time you'll find losing teams start to play a little harder following a coaching change. Of course, it's also helped that they've played the Lakers, Knicks and 76ers, all here at home, since James Borrego took over. The big difference has come on the defensive end as in the six games under Borrego, Orlando is allowing 9.6 points per game less than they did under Vaughn. That includes 88.3 PPG allowed the L3 games overall, giving them their longest win streak of the season. While most will be eager to call for this run to end, I'm just not a big believer in Miami, particularly laying points on the road. Whatever good was derived from the deal that brought Goran Dragic to Miami was quickly nullified by the news of Chris Bosh missing the rest of the season. I've said it before, but the Heat are just not a very good basketball team. They are 28th in points, last in rebounding (still, despite the emergence of Hassan Whiteside) and 28th in assists. What's kept the alive for the playoffs is a weak Eastern Conference first and foremost, plus a defense that's allowing just 96.8 PPG (4th best). However, a 92.7 per game scoring average on the road has to make one fearful of laying points on the road w/ this bunch. As a favorite this year, home or road, the Heat are a money-losing proposition at 8-12 ATS. You can criticize Orlando's recent schedule, but is Miami's any better? I'd say the answer is no considering their two wins since the All-Star Break have come at the expense of the Knicks and 76ers. They lost at home to New Orleans, by double digits, despite the Pelicans not having the services of Anthony Davis or Ryan Anderson. Consider that the night before Orlando (who I took) pulled out a SU win over the Pelicans as 5.5-pt dogs. The road team has taken the first two matchups between these Southeast Division rivals, so I'd say its "high time" for the home team to come through. The Heat are 3-7 ATS this year following a double digit win (Note: they beat Philadelphia 119-108 Monday). 8* Orlando. |
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02-25-15 | Towson v. William & Mary -10 | Top | 50-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
10* William & Mary (7:00 ET) - By virtue of their 80-78 win over Hofstra on Sunday (were 4.5-pt dogs), W&M pulled itself into a four-way tie atop the Colonial. Remember that the Tribe are one of only a handful of teams never to have made the NCAA Tournament. Comparatively speaking, their remaining schedule in the regular is pretty easy as they have two home games lined up against Towson and Drexel, neither of whom is in the upper half of the conference. Up first is Towson, a team that William & Mary beat on the road, 85-72 (-6), back on January 17th. Therefore, I'm a little surprised that this line isn't a tiny bit higher. Especially considering Towson comes in having dropped five of six. Lay the points. Looking at the tiebreaker situation, William & Mary is in good shape. They swept both James Madison and UNC Wilmington. Only Northeastern is a concern as they split with them. So the players should be highly motivated to win these last two games. I'm a bit surprised that the Tribe hasn't been a little better at the betting window this season, given that the majority of their losses have come on the road and were close. But don't be afraid to lay the points as they're 11-1 SU at home and outscoring teams by almost 20 points per game! Towson just dropped a pair of games at home last week, including one on Saturday to UNC Wilmington despite shooting above 51 percent. This is a team that shoots just 39% from the field on the road, for the season. So they're unlikely to have even close to the offensive efficiency they did Saturday. Meanwhile, William & Mary ranks in the top six nationally in YTD field goal percentage at 49.4%. The first time these teams met, William & Mary shot a blistering 55.6% from the field en route to 85 pts, their second most in a CAA game this season. I just don't see Towson being able to to keep up here, given their 60.7 PPG scoring average on the road. The Tigers have had a really bad season, losing 16 of 21 games following a 7-1 SU start. They're more likely to be pointing towards Saturday's game vs. Delaware, which is Senior Night, than this one. This should turn into a blowout. 10* William & Mary |
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02-24-15 | UNLV v. Utah State -2.5 | Top | 65-83 | Win | 100 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
8* Utah State (9:30 ET): This would be a revenge spot for Utah State, who comes into tonight in fine form. The Aggies have won four in a row, the most recent victory coming Saturday at home vs. Fresno State by a score of 85-79 (were 5-point favorites). That was another revenge spot for them and they've now covered the spread in every game during the current win streak as well. Back on January 24th in Vegas, they lost by only a deuce in overtime, after falling behind by eight points at halftime. Missed free throws really hurt the Aggies that night, but the good news for tonight is that they won't have to deal w/ UNLV's leading scorer Rashad Vaughn (17.6 PPG), who remains out w/ a knee injury. Lay the points. The Rebels come off an upset of New Mexico (as five-point underdogs) in "The Pit," which normally is no small feat, but the Lobos are down this year and Utah State had already done the same earlier in the year. Without Vaughn, UNLV still shot 10 of 17 from three-point range, it's best percentage against a D-I opponent this season. A career-high 22 points from Patrick McCaw was also key. I do not expect either facet to be duplicated tonight. Before going into Albuquerque, the Rebels had dropped three of their last four. They'd lost their first two games w/out Vaughn, including a weak 48-point effort at home in a loss to Boise State last Wednesday. Vaughn led the way w/ 31 points in the first matchup of these teams this season, so his absence will loom large for the rematch. UNLV was just 1-7 SU in "true" road games heading into the weekend, so the odds of them winning twice away from home in a four-day span seem small. Utah State is 10-4 SU this year in Logan and with B2B road games of their own looming, winning here becomes imperative. They are holding visitors to just 61.4 points per game this year. In a battle of two teams that have found great success at the betting window lately, I'll go w/ the one that's been winning straight up more in what's actually a triple revenge spot. 8* Utah State |
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02-24-15 | Toronto Raptors v. Dallas Mavericks -4 | Top | 92-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:35 ET): This is a really tough spot for a Toronto team that lost after blowing a late lead last night in New Orleans, who was without Anthony Davis. Meanwhile, Dallas was a nice winner for me their last time out. They defeated Charlotte here at home, 92-81, just barely covering a much larger spread than what they're being asked to lay here. Given the fact they average 106.9 PPG at home (ironically, same number as the Raptors average on the road), I look for the home team to win (and cover) a relatively high-scoring affair against an unrested foe. Toronto has now lost B2B games since their impressive win at Atlanta to start the second half. In those two losses, they've averaged just 86.5 points per game on an ugly 37.3 percent shooting. They were actually blown out Houston the night after Dallas beat the Rockets here at home, so that certainly doesn't bode well for tonight. Nor does the fact they've already lost at home to the Mavs earlier this year, despite Dallas only scoring 36 points in the paint in that one. Situationally speaking, the Raptors have not fared well in spots such as this one. They're 0-6 ATS after playing their last three games on the road. Last night in New Orleans, they led by as many as 18 points, but couldn't close despite the Pelicans missing two of their top four scorers, one of them their best player. Dallas will see Amare Stoudemire make his debut tonight. Now that he's been freed from the abyss known as the Knicks, I look for an uptick in production from him moving forward. Toronto allows over 104 PPG on the road, so despite not having Chandler Parsons, the Mavs' offense should be just fine here. Starting in place of Parsons, Richard Jefferson actually posted a double-double Sunday against Charlotte. Playing in the tougher conference, a win here would mean more to the home team. 10* Dallas |
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02-24-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Washington Wizards +4.5 | Top | 114-107 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:05 ET): We're seeing a little regression from the Warriors of late, which is predictable, but their recent road play is a cause for concern. They've failed to cover six of seven away games since January 30th, losing outright three times, including to Indiana Sunday night. Their only cover on the road this month came at the expense of a Sacramento team that was playing for a lame duck coach at the time. They have not broken 100 pts in three straight road games. I realize Washington has its own set of problems, as in three straight losses (2-8 SU L10), the last two coming in blowout fashion. But having bombed at the betting window lately, I'd say they are due to at least stick within the number here. At 3-11 ATS/4-10 SU their L14 games, the Wizards are in trouble. They're clearly the fifth place team in the Eastern Conference and with Cleveland on a rapid ascension, upward mobility is unlikely. Facing the best team in the league seems like an unlikely place for them to turn things around, but they are 20-9 SU at home and haven't been this big of an underdog here all season long. While Bradley Beal remains out for the Wiz, the real key for them in this one is likely the absence of Steph Curry for Golden State. Curry didn't play Sunday when the the Warriors lost to the Pacers and is officially listed as questionable for tonight. I'd bet on HC Steve Kerr resting him for the big Thursday night showdown in Cleveland, so that also makes this a bit of a look ahead. Look, we all knew that the Warriors would start to come down from their lofty perch eventually. Their numbers from the first half are just too difficult to sustain over the long-term, so don't be surprised if the (slight) regression continues here. 8* Washington |
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02-24-15 | South Carolina v. Alabama -4.5 | Top | 51-59 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
8* Alabama (7:00 ET): The Crimson Tide is coming off a tough overtime loss (66-65) to Georgia over the weekend where they were 3.5-point favorites. Unfortunately, close losses have been fairly common this year for 'Bama, who has five of them by two points or less. Despite that, the fact they have alternated wins and losses over their last six games I believe makes them an excellent bounce back target Tuesday even though they are laying points. One of those five losses by two points or less came January 13th at South Carolina, a game they still covered as four-point dogs. The Gamecocks have basically been a disaster at the betting window in going 2-12 ATS vs. SEC foes this season. Look for the Tide to get revenge. South Carolina had not won a road game in conference play until upsetting Georgia last Tuesday, 64-58 as 6.5-pt dogs. They followed that up w/ a 10-pt loss at home to Texas A&M Saturday. They shot a measly 29 percent from the field in that game and were short-handed due to both injury and suspension. That's not going to change here w/ the possible exception of guard Marcus Stroman, who has missed the last four games w/ a throat injury. HC Frank Martin has been quoted as saying practice has become a chore as he only has eight players to work with and that team managers are actually required to do five-on-five drills. The first time these teams played saw South Carolina hold on for the win despite not making a single field goal attempt over the final 6:30 of the game. Having failed to break 60 pts in six of their last nine games, offense has definitely been an issue for the Gamecocks. They are only 3-6 SU/ATS as underdogs this season and the L3 seasons have seen them go 12-34 straight up when taking the points. With such a small number, I'm not afraid of the pointspread coming into play here, plus the Tide are only allowing 59.4 PPG here in Tuscaloosa. 8* Alabama |
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02-24-15 | LSU v. Auburn +5 | Top | 84-61 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
10* Auburn (7:00 ET): Few are going to want to touch the Tigers here as they just got smoked by #1 Kentucky Saturday in a 110-75 loss. The good news, however, if you're an Auburn fan is that you won't be playing an opponent that good the rest of the season. I realize that things haven't gone so well for Auburn over the last month w/ just two wins in their L10 games and those came by a combined four points. However, one was against tonight's opponent LSU, on the road. These Tigers are squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble, but in a good place after picking up a big home win over Florida Saturday. Obviously, they'll motivated here by the revenge factor, but that won't be enough to overcome laying points on the road. I could take some time to go through what happened to Auburn Saturday night, but what's the point? Kentucky put forth a level of domination that no other team in the country is capable of and certainly won't be repeated here. Literally, it can't get any worse for the Tigers than it did in Lexington. Bruce Pearl's team has generally been competitive even as the losses have piled up. This has been the toughest portion the schedule, which explains the record. A team that averages 76.0 points per game at home is certainly a viable bet when taking points, however. LSU would almost have to be at their best offensively to cover as the road favorite here. Remember that Florida was w/out its two top scorers against them on Saturday. The first meeting w/ Auburn, as well as a two-point loss to Kentucky, are the only two games this year where LSU had a higher field goal percentage than its opponent and lost. That game was actually one of Auburn's highest scoring SEC games and also was their first "true" road win of the season. HC Pearl is now 6-3 SU vs. LSU in his coaching career going back to his days at Tennessee. While that was definitely a bad loss for the Bayou Bengals, I think that the uglier loss to Kentucky will have Auburn as the more motivated team here. Take the points. 10* Auburn |
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02-23-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls -7.5 | Top | 71-87 | Win | 100 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
8* Chicago (8:05 ET): We've begun to see Milwaukee "give some back" lately, including in a 97-86 home loss to Atlanta yday afternoon. It was the team's sixth ATS defeat in the last seven games, dropping them to 34-20-1 ATS for the season, which is still top three in the league but no longer #1 which is where they once were. Tonight, the Bucks visit division rival Chicago, who ironically has also been experiencing some problems covering the spread since the All-Star Break. The Bulls are 0 for 2 ATS since the Break, losing outright at Detroit and then only scraping by Phoenix here at home. While they've struggled ATS at home for years now, I feel Tom Thibodeau's team gets the job done tonight as they've generally handled Milwaukee through the years and have still managed to win five of their last six overall. Last night was only the second time the Bucks have lost in their L11 games. The deciding run came in the fourth quarter as the Hawks outscored them 24-9 to break open what had been a fairly tight game throughout. It had to be frustrating to lose a game in which they held Atlanta to just 40.2 percent shooting from the field. With the strong overall ATS record, the Bucks are pretty strong in most situations, but just 7-6-1 ATS when playing the second of back to back games. They have cleaned up both on the road & as dogs, but eventually those things begin to "even out." Right now, without the services of the recently acquired Michael Carter-Williams, I'd say Milwaukee is a go-against team. Chicago is scoring far more than we're used to seeing from them, especially here at home where they average a whopping 104.1 points per game. They've scored 113 and 112 pts their L2 home games and are actually 6-2 ATS their last eight games vs. teams w/ a winning record. This is not a ridiculously big number by any means and while my personal power ratings say the line is higher than it should be, that doesn't take into account the fact Milwaukee is playing w/out rest. Look for the Bulls to take advantage. 8* Chicago |
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02-23-15 | Louisville v. Georgia Tech +4.5 | Top | 52-51 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
10* Georgia Tech (7:00 ET): I would have been less apt to go against Louisville here if they had failed to rally back from a big first half deficit (at home) against Miami on Saturday. Had the Cardinals lost, it would have been their third in a row to an unranked opponent. But despite the win, there are major concerns right now surrounding Rick Pitino's team, not the least of which being the dismissal of senior guard Chris Jones. Jones, who averages 13.7 points per game, was a big part of Saturday's comeback (scored 17 pts) after being suspended for the Syracuse game last Wednesday. His abscence will really be felt on the defensive end as a big reason the team led the ACC w/ 8.3 steals per game is that Jones averaged 2.0 per game himself, more than any other player in the conference. Take the points here. Georgia Tech is off a bad loss at Chapel Hill on Saturday. North Carolina beat them down by a final score of 89-60, easily covering the 11-point spread. The Yellow Jackets were coming off just their third ACC win of the season going into Saturday's game, and considering how they'd performed off the previous two, perhaps that wasn't the best spot for them. The 89 pts allowed, however, were an eye-opener. Ga Tech is a pretty sound defensive team, particularly here in Atlanta where they allow just 60.8 PPG, which puts them in the same ballpark as L'ville, who allows just 59.2 PPG. Consider that before Saturday, the Yellow Jackets hadn't dropped an ACC game by more than seven points all season. While Georgia Tech has had two games to get used to being w/out Chris Bolden, Louisville will be looking to win for a first time w/out Jones. Over the L6 games, the Cardinals offense has averaged just 59.7 PPG, which is certainly not a good sign when you're laying points on the road. Against Miami on Saturday, they shot just 33.9 percent from the field and trailed 29-19 at halftime. Something else to keep in mind is that w/out Jones, the team had just two steals in the loss to Syracuse last week, a game where the offense struggled against the zone. Louisville is just 8-14 ATS when favored this season while Ga Tech is 8-4 ATS as a dog. I'm just not a buyer on Pitino's team right now. 10* Georgia Tech |
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02-23-15 | Delaware State v. Norfolk State -7 | Top | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
8* Norfolk State (7:00 ET): We're heading to the MEAC for this one, a conference where everyone is chasing North Carolina Central, who is a perfect 13-0. No challenger to their throne is closer than Norfolk State, who is three games back and would be even closer had they not dropped a couple of games (MD-Eastern Shore & Morgan St) last week. The Spartans bounced back w/ a big 99-81 win over Coppin State Saturday, easily setting a season-high for points scored and doing so on the road. They shot 62 percent from the field for the game and scored 60 points after halftime. It was a truly dominant performance, typically the kind that cannot be replicated a team's next time out, but here I like their chances against a Delaware State side that is nothing special. I *believe* that this is the first lined game for Norfolk State all season. So we don't have a ton of ATS information here. However, I can assure you an 18-pt road win would have equated to a cover. In addition to shooting the ball well from the floor, the Spartans were 88 percent from the FT line Saturday, which I like for obvious reasons, not the least of which being free throws become important when needing to cover the spread late in games. They also outrebounded Coppin State 36-24. The reason for this game being lined is that it's on TV (ESPNU), so expect a more raucous crowd than normal tonight. Delaware State is off a big come from behind win at Hampton on Saturday where they were able to erase a 37-26 deficit. This is a pretty hot team right now as they'd topped 90 points in their three previous games before beating Hampton. Two of those were wins, but I wonder just how much of an abberration that scoring frenzy was considering the Hornets' YTD scoring average is closer to 70 PPG and they'd been held under 55 twice, on the road, in conference play. Norfolk State's defense is also better than its shown the L3 games as they allow just 63 PPG at home for the season. Look for the home team to pick up a big win in a rare chance to play in front of the national TV cameras. 8* Norfolk State |
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02-22-15 | Charlotte Hornets v. Dallas Mavericks -10 | Top | 81-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
10* Dallas (7:35 ET): Losers of four straight to begin with, this looks like a brutal spot for Charlotte, who is coming off a home loss to Oklahoma City last night. That loss happened despite the Thunder being w/out Kevin Durant, which cannot be taken as a good sign if you're a Hornets fan, and not just because it knocked you out of playoff position in the weak Eastern Conference. Oklahoma City has a losing record this year w/ Durant out of the lineup, yet Charlotte fell behind by as many as 12 in their first game since the All-Star Break. Remember they are still without Kemba Walker as well. Mo Williams is unlikely to replicate last night's strong debut, so I'm laying the points here. Charlotte's losing streak includes a setback against lowly Philadelphia, not to mention a 28-pt home loss to Detroit right before the Break. So the chances for success in this step up in class, on the road, seem slim. After coming out of the gate rusty on Thursday in Oklahoma City, the Mavericks bounced back w/ an impressive 111-100 win over Houston on Friday here at home. As they showed there, this team is definitely capable of scoring in bunches. Eight players finished w/ 10 or more points, including the entire starting five, so the fact Chandler Parsons may miss tonight's game isn't as big of a deal as it could be. Here at home, Dallas averages a whopping 107.4 points per game. That kind of firepower is just too much for a Charlotte side that comes in averaging only 94.5 PPG for the year. Plus, Amare Stoudemire is expected to make his Mavericks debut tonight. Over their last 11 games, the Hornets have been held below 95 points eight times, including under 90 five times. Playing without rest obviously only makes things harder. Dallas is fighting for a division title and the right to have home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, so letting a game like this slip away would be incredibly damaging. I just see them as having way too much for a Charlotte team that is 0-13 straight up against the top eight in the Western Conference. The Hornets have never won in Dallas and lost to them by 27 at home earlier this year. 10* Dallas |
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02-22-15 | Utah v. Oregon +6 | Top | 58-69 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
10* Oregon (3:00 ET): I'd like to reiterate again how much respect I have for this Utah team. They're a legit Final Four contender that is now 21-4 SU after proving me wrong by going to Corvallis and knocking off Oregon State, 47-37 as 7.5-point favorites. It wasn't so much the winning that surprised me there, but rather the covering. Including neutral site games, the Utes are still just 6-4 SU outside of Salt Lake City. Today marks the third instance during the Pac 12 schedule that they have had to play consecutive road games. The first time, they failed in the second leg (at Arizona) while they also dropped a game on a three-game trip as well. Oregon, 16-2 SU at home and averaging 79.1 PPG, should be able to cover this generous number. Take the points. Winning, let alone covering, a game when you score just 47 points is a pretty rare achievement. But Oregon State, previously unbeaten at home, allowed Utah to do just that on Saturday. It helped that the Beavers shot only 33.3 percent for the game. Low-scoring games have been the norm for the Utes on the road as they average just 61.2 PPG while allowing 54.7. So while their last 14 wins have all been by double digits, the numbers (and sheer probability) suggest they are due for a close game sooner rather than later. In last year's lone matchup w/ Oregon, which took place in Salt Lake City, the Utes lost outright. They have lost their last four trips here to Eugene. Oregon has won five of six w/ the only loss coming at UCLA. They bounced back from that defeat w/ a 73-60 win over Colorado here at the Matthew Knight Center on Wednesday. The Ducks led that one by double digits almost throughout and are now in third place in the conference, only looking up at Utah and Arizona. For some reason, despite the chance of a 23-win season, they are currently not considered a NCAA Tournament team. That would change by winning out, which obviously is a long-shot, but the Ducks ability to put the ball in the basket should at least keep them close the whole way here and inside the number. 10* Oregon |
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02-21-15 | Toronto Raptors v. Houston Rockets -2 | Top | 76-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
10* Houston (8:05 ET): Both of these teams played on the road yday, but needless to say they experienced very different results. Toronto picked up a huge win, quite literally, beating Atlanta 105-80 on the road. Houston lost at Dallas, 111-100, as 2.5-pt dogs. As good as the Raptors have been in the second game of back to backs this season (9-2 ATS), this has to be considered a letdown spot for them following such an impressive performance against the only team ahead of them in the Eastern Conference. As I said yday (when I played the Under and won), the Raptors' scoring average (108.6 PPG!) on the road HAS to start to come down, sooner or later, right? Lay the points in this one. Dating back to before the All-Star Break, the Rockets have dropped three of four, which in the loaded Western Conference means you're in danger of a precipitous fall. Right now, they are in fourth place, but only one-half game currently separates third place from sixth. With the decrease in home court advantage and still no Dwight Howard, normally I might be a bit more concerned about a play on Houston here. But the situation dictates it. I'd also make the case that their their three point shooting is due to turnaround after a rough couple of games. For what it's worth, Toronto has lost its last seven visits to the Toyota Center. After suffering a double-digit loss, the Rockets are 8-2 ATS this year. Turning the ball over 21 times last night killed them and one could make the case of rest over rust as it was their first game since the Break while Dallas had played the night before (and lost) at Oklahoma City. I just don't see any way the Raptors can match last night's intensity or level of performance. 10* Houston |
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02-21-15 | TCU v. Kansas -12 | Top | 72-81 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
10* Kansas (4:00 ET): TCU was never as bad as their Big 12 record seemed to indicate (remember they were 13-0 vs. non-conf), but after posting B2B wins, they happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, that being Allen Fieldhouse on Saturday where they'll find an angry bunch of Jayhawks, who are off a last second loss at West Virginia Monday. KU is unbeaten in Lawrence this season, outscoring teams by over 15 points per game, so by facing one of the weaker teams in the conference, they should roll here again. The first matchup, played in Ft. Worth obviously, was a three-point game despite poor shooting from the Horned Frogs. Even if they are to improve from the field here, I don't think TCU has much of a chance. Kansas' margin for error shrank w/ the loss Monday as their lead over Iowa State for 1st place in the Big 12 is down to one game. After giving up a layup w/ four seconds remaining vs. the Mountaineers, it appeared as if the Jayhawks would return the favor, only for Perry Ellis to miss. But I don't think there was any shame in that loss, nor is there anything to worry about here. Bill Self's team is #1 in RPI having beaten more top 25 teams (seven) than any other in the country. This is a dangerous squad from behind the arc (40.9%), best in the Big 12, and they are also a perfect 4-0 against the spread off a SU loss this year. They've lost just five of their past 140 home games (not a misprint!). Meanwhile, life in the Big 12 has been tough for TCU. They've lost 44 of 49 conference games since joining, and this will be the first time EVER they're coming off B2B wins in the new league. The last time they beat a ranked opponent on the road was 1998 (Hawaii), since losing 29 in a row by an average of more than 18 points per game. They've benefited from good shooting in the last two games, but we're likely to see a difference story today as Kansas' last three opponents have all been held below 38 percent for the game. In the face of high spreads, the Jayhawks have gone 8-3 ATS at home, including 4-1 ATS when laying 12.5 or more points. This should turn into a blowout rather quickly. 10* Kansas |
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02-21-15 | George Washington v. Richmond -4.5 | Top | 48-56 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
8* Richmond (4:00 ET): George Washington is in a free fall. They've lost five of six straight up (0-6 ATS) and are just 2-11 ATS in conference play this season. That losing streak has them off the NCAA Tourney bubble (not in the good way!) and I see little evidence that the Colonials are likely to turn things around this afternoon in Richmond. Especially because this is a revenge spot for the host Spiders, who lost by three in double overtime earlier this year. Returning home off B2B road games, this is a big one for Richmond, who is calling for a "Red Out" from their fans and will honor former players at halftime. They are in better form right now and even with a checkered history when favored, I'm willing to lay this small number. Truth be told, Richmond was very fortunate to even force overtime in the first matchup. Kendall Anthony was fouled on a desperation three from half-court in the final seconds of regulation w/ the team down 50-47. Neither side shot the ball well in that game. Note that GW was playing much better at the time and was actually unbeaten at home until last week. In "true" road games, they are 3-6 SU/2-7 ATS. Over the L6 games, the Colonials are averaging right around 60 points per game, which simply won't cut it. Surprisingly, this team has been a dog only four times this season, but those games haven't gone well as they're 1-3 SU/ATS. Richmond just split a pair of road games. After suffering an outright loss at George Mason, they bounced back to defeat St. Bonaventure 71-56 Wednesday. Five players scored in double figures as the team shot 50 percent overall, including eight three-pointers. They forced 19 turnovers as well. Consider that GW's only win in the last six games needed overtime and they have to be in the dumps after blowing an eight-point halftime lead at home against Davidson earlier in the week. The Colonials' three-point shooting has been a disaster away from home this year. 8* Richmond |
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02-21-15 | Iowa State v. Texas -2 | Top | 85-77 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
10* Texas (2:00 ET): This is a gigantic game for the Longhorns. Not that it isn't for visiting Iowa State, who is still trying to catch Kansas for first place in the Big 12 (currently one game back). But for all its talent, Texas actually has a losing record (6-7 straight up) in conference play and is in dire need of what would be just its second win against a Top 50 RPI team. I think they get it here. This matchup is a real contrast of styles with the Longhorns and their defense going against the high-scoring Cyclones. Last month in Ames, ISU won a very close game, 89-86 but failed to cover as five-point favorites. Home court should be the difference maker here for Rick Barnes' squad, which is actually 4-0 ATS this season vs. teams that average 77+ PPG. Prior to Wednesday's win in Stillwater (Oklahoma St), ISU had gone a long time time w/out a road win. They'd lost four in a row away from Ames, including double digit defeats to Kansas and Oklahoma. The likelihood of them winning B2B road games seems small to me. Like many college teams, the big reason for the severe home-road splits is that defense doesn't travel for the Cyclones. They're allowing 78.1 points per game on the road compared to 64.6 at home. They allowed even more to UT on Jan 26, thanks to a late furious rally by the Longhorns. Enjoying a +26 edge in FT attempts was a big help for Fred Hoiberg's team there as well. By the way, Iowa State has lost six straight times here in Austin by an average of 10.0 PPG. No team in the country allows a lower shooting percentage on two-point attempts than does Texas at 37.3 percent. That's quite impressive. Their length often gives opponents difficulty (13 blocked shots last game!), it's just that you'd like to see a little more consistency in their overall play, particularly on the offensive end. But despite having a three-game win streak snapped Monday in Oklahoma, the Longhorns showed me something as they led for much of the second half before eventually wilting in overtime. That's a good Oklahoma team that they held to 36.1 overall shooting. The 'Horns are top four in the country in rebounding, and hopefully should do a better job at keeping ISU out of the paint compared to the first meeting. 10* Texas |
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02-21-15 | Kansas State v. Baylor -9.5 | Top | 42-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
8* Baylor (1:00 ET): For as good as Baylor's RPI might be, the Bears are only 7-6 SU in conference play and have struggled some of late. They lost to Oklahoma State (at home) and at Kansas by nearly identical scores, then barely got by the weakest team in the Big 12 (Texas Tech) Tuesday. So a big win would come in handy "right about now" and fortunately for them I think they have an accommodating opponent in fleeting Kansas State, losers of six of their last seven. The Wildcats did upset Oklahoma last Saturday, but that was in Manhattan. They've dropped five of six Big 12 road games and are just 3-10 SU away from home overall this season. I look for Baylor's defense and rebounding to lead them to a big victory Saturday afternoon in what is a revenge spot for them. Lay the points. Back on January 17th, Baylor actually held a double-digit lead in Manhattan before falling apart late and losing to the Wildcats 63-61 as 1.5-pt dogs. It is the only loss to an unranked Big 12 team on their resume. There were a number of reasons for the blown lead. One was simply the Bears missing multiple layups. In the end, they shot just 38.2 percent for the game, compared to 50.0 percent for Kansas State, who was an even better 59 percent in the second half. Still though, it was a rare loss for Baylor when scoring at least 60 points and at the same time they pulled down 17 offensive rebounds. Kansas State went on a 17-2 run at one point as they were able to consistently get to the foul line thanks to driving to the hoop. The Wildcats led for less than six minutes total, however, it just so happened to be the six minutes that mattered most. Baylor is coming off perhaps its best defensive effort in some time. They held Texas Tech to just 49 pts on 35.4 percent shooting. At the same time, they only scored 54 pts themselves. But they're 3-0 ATS this year when after scoring 60 pts or less. This is a team that holds visitors to an average of 57.2 PPG this season and they are also 4th in the nation in rebounding (40.7 per game), which should be a big edge against a Kansas State squad that doesn't have a single player averaging more than 5.2 RPG. Second-chance points are huge for the Bears (13.9 per game), who rebound an astounding 43% of their missed shots, easily the highest percentage in the entire country. Kansas State was down 35-15 at the half to TCU earlier this week, not a good sign. Offensive efficiency numbers are at the opposite ends of the Big 12 spectrum for these two. 8* Baylor |
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02-20-15 | Denver Nuggets v. Milwaukee Bucks -7.5 | Top | 81-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): The Bucks are somewhat lost in the mix in the Eastern Conference. They clearly shouldn't be grouped with the top five contenders, but at the same time they hold a huge 7.5 game lead over the two teams tied for seventh (Miami, Charlotte). So we clearly have ourselves a playoff team here and one of the league's best against the spread to boot (34-18-1 ATS). Already, they have topped their projected season win total (24.5) and by year's end they may triple LY's number of wins (15). This should be an easy one for them as a poor Denver team comes calling. The Nuggets did win their final game before the All Star Break, 106-96 as 1.5-pt dogs on the road, but the opponent was the Lakers. Before that, Denver had lost six in a row and 13 of 14. They went 3-9-2 ATS in that same stretch, so it's not like they were competitive either. Defense is an issue with Denver as they allow more than 104 points per game, one of only five teams in the league to do so. Both of these teams were busy reshaping their respective rosters at the deadline, which is why the line wasn't posted until this morning (personnel issues). Regardless if both were at "full strength" or missing some players, it's advantage Bucks. Additionally, the Nuggets could be w/out Ty Lawson, who missed a team flight and is facing a suspension. The Bucks are 20-8 ATS vs. teams w/ losing records. 10* Milwaukee |
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02-20-15 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Orlando Magic +5.5 | Top | 84-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
8* Orlando (7:05 ET): This is a pretty brutal spot for New Orleans, whose season is basically on the brink. Let's be honest, we know and the Pelicans know, that they won't be making the playoffs. They lost three in a row before the Break, all at home. That had a lot to do with Anthony Davis being out and he's still listed as day to day w/ a shoulder sprain. The same holds true for forward Ryan Anderson. While one or both could play tonight, we know that starting PG Jrue Holliday will not as he will miss the next three weeks w/ a leg injury. This team is already 0-3 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 pts this season, and I don't like them laying points here. I can't make the case that Orlando is a good team, because they're not, but they are at home and getting points. It is a little concerning that the Knicks and Lakers account for the Magic's only two victories over the last month, but on the bright side Orlando is 4-1-1 ATS L6. The one non-cover during that stretch came when they were playing w/out rest at Washington. Remember that this team made a recent coaching change and that they're 2-2 straight up since. When playing w/ 3+ days rest this season, the Magic are 2-0 ATS. My own power rankings indicate that there's a little value here as the Pelicans should only be favored by only four points. Three of the last four times they have been a road favorite, New Orleans has lost the game outright. Those games were against Boston, Philadelphia and New York, all teams on the bottom rung of the Eastern Conference ladder, much like Orlando, who was getting nearly this many points against a better Chicago team their last time as a home dog and should have won that game outright (did cover). 8* Orlando |
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02-20-15 | Princeton v. Dartmouth -2 | Top | 63-56 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
10* Dartmouth (7:00 ET): The Big Green hasn't fared too well as a favorite this year (just 1-6 ATS), but they are coming off a 61-49 win (-2.5) over Columbia that snapped a five-game SU/ATS losing streak. They had to play five straight games on the road at one point, a stretch that included a 64-53 loss to tonight's opponent, Princeton. Tonight, I expect them to exact revenge. Dartmouth is a team that's gotten to play only eight home games thus far (gone 5-3 SU) and the only time they've lost here over the past month was in overtime. They actually shot slightly better overall than Princeton in that first matchup, but were 0 for 9 from three-point range. I wouldn't expect a repeat of that tonight. Lay the small number. The Big Green were far more proficient from behind the arc on Saturday, connecting on 7 of 12 attempts against Columbia. They trailed only for a brief time early in the second half (a one-point deficit) before taking control of the game for good. In holding the Lions to just 49 points, it continued a season-long trend that has seen visiting teams average just 59.7 points per game against them. I think the defense is what carries them here. They average 7.6 steals per game and just held Columbia to 7 of 23 from three-point range. Princeton, meanwhile, has really struggled on the road. They are just 2-9 SU away from home this season, including 1-7 ATS in lined action. The Tigers are off an 81-73 home loss to Yale on Saturday. They lost their lone venture into New Hampshire last season, as 7.5-point favorites, falling 78-69. For the Tigers, this is a spot that will be somewhat overlooked as it falls in between a pair of matchups with the two first place teams in the Ivy League. They play at Harvard tomorrow night, which is likely to be on the players' minds. Two areas of weakness to keep an eye on w/ Princeton is that they allow opponents to shoot 37.5 percent from three-point range and they are also very week on the boards, pulling down just 30.1 rebounds per game (327th in the country). 10* Dartmouth |
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02-19-15 | Gonzaga v. Pacific +19 | Top | 86-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
8* Pacific (11:00 ET): There aren't many teams left in College Basketball that don't have a conference loss on their resume, but out in the WCC, perennial league power Gonzaga is one of them. Joining only Kentucky, North Carolina Central (MEAC) and Murray State (Ohio Valley) as the only teams in the country that are unbeaten in league play, the 'Zags are 14-0 SU vs. the WCC, but only 6-7-1 ATS as they are always being asked to lay large spreads to admittedly inferior opponents. It's hard to constantly "get up" for these games if your Gonzaga and they won't be asked to lay a bigger number on the road all season than they are here as they visit last place Pacific. With a much bigger game looming at rival St. Mary's this weekend, plus the fact Gonzaga is 0-3 ATS this season when laying 12.5 or more points on the road, I'm taking the home dog in this one. I can't make the case Pacific is a good team, or even an average one at that, as the Tigers have dropped 10 of 11 w/ the lone win coming by two points. They've lost seven in a row and were just destroyed at BYU, 84-59. That was the finale of a three-game road trip, however, and here at home they tend to be far more competitive. Four of their five WCC home games have been decided by seven points or less. This will obviously be the toughest one yet and they did lose to Gonzaga by 31 the first time they played. But that being said, Gonzaga is unlikely to shoot 60 percent from the field like they did in that first meeting. This is obviously the most points Pacific has gotten in any game this year. Then you have the fact Gonzaga has been experiencing some close calls of late. They've covered only two of their last six games and whether at home or on the road, those spreads were generally in the same range as this one. In three of their four games in February, the Zags have either been tied or trailed at the half. Saturday, at home, they scored only 56 points against Pepperdine. They won by only eight points despite the Waves missing all 10 three-point attempts they took. This is just too many points to lay in a look ahead spot. 8* Pacific |
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02-19-15 | Utah v. Oregon State +8.5 | Top | 47-37 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
10* Oregon State (11:00 ET): Quietly, Utah has morphed into one of the top teams in the entire country. They are a legit Final Four contender (seriously!) and generally have been blowing out opponents with great regularity. They've won four in a row - all by 15 pts or greater - and in fact their last 13 wins have all been by double digits. But while they've only lost four times all year, all four have been on the road and two of them here in Pac 12 play (at UCLA and at Arizona) weren't very close. To me, that makes it look very dangerous that they are laying such a big number tonight in Corvallis to an Oregon State squad that has yet to taste defeat at home all season. I'm taking the points here, and think an outright upset is a real possibility. I'd say that Oregon State is probably one of the most improved teams in the entire country this year. What 1st year HC Wayne Tinkle has done here is made even more remarkable when you consider that the Beavers didn't return a single starter from last year's squad and don't have much of a bench. But still, OSU ranks right behind the Utes in terms of scoring defense (57.5 PPG to 56.4) and is a team Utah has yet to face. Off B2B road losses, the Beavers are a dangerous team here because they're not getting much respect from the linesmakers. While they aren't a potent offensive bunch, neither is Utah on the road, and OSU is limiting visitors to just 52.6 points per game here at Gill Coliseum on 34.4 percent shooting. As stipulated earlier, Utah isn't nearly as strong on the road as they are in Salt Lake City. They are just 5-4 on the road/in neutral site games, averaging just 62.8 points per game. They did struggle defensively - at least for a half - Sunday vs. Cal, allowing the Bears to shoot 54 percent before halftime and thus keep the game close most of the way. It was the second most points they'd given up in a game all season. Oregon State is 11-2 ATS at home this season, with most of those games going Under, so in what figures to be another low-scoring affair, taking the points is definitely the way to go. 10* Oregon State |
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02-19-15 | San Antonio Spurs -3 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 115-119 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (10:35 ET): I admit that it's odd to see a team as highly rated as the Clippers actually GETTING points at home. But despite wins over the Rockets and Mavs right before the All-Star Break, Lob City has been a big money loser at the betting window this season, going 22-32 ATS. They will be without Blake Griffin for the foreseeable future, making this matchup with the defending NBA Champs right out of the game a very tough matchup. The Spurs are a team to keep an eye on right now as they're finally healthy and should enjoy a strong second half of the season. This is a big revenge spot for them after losing to LA by 20 at home the last time they played. Lay the points. Overall, San Antonio has won 15 of its last 20 games. They destroyed Detroit last Wednesday, 104-87, with five players finishing in double figures. They too have struggled some to cover games, going 2-7-1 ATS, so I admit that laying points w/ them on the road against another Western Conference power seems risky. But this has more to do with my faith in HC Greg Popovich having his team ready to go and that the Clippers are not at full strength. Defensively, give the nod to the Spurs in this one as they rank 3rd overall in the league, allowing just 96.7 points per game for the year. The Clippers have given up over 110 PPG their last five games and were torched by Oklahoma City for 131 points. When priced as an underdog, the Clips are just 3-6 SU/ATS. I feel that at this moment the Spurs are the team poised for the better start to the second half. 8* San Antonio |
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02-19-15 | Texas State v. Louisiana-Lafayette -5.5 | Top | 42-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
8* LA Lafayette (8:15 ET): Both of these squads are pretty much "stuck in the middle" of the Sun Belt pecking order, though lately things have not been going well for Texas State at all. The Bobcats have lost eight of nine and scored just 41 points at home against Georgia State on Saturday. That loss also dropped them to 1-6 against the spread as an underdog this season, making this matchup w/ LA Lafayette seem like a solid "buy" on the favorite, who admittedly is having pointspread problems of their own (3-8 ATS L11, 0-3 L3), but is also 6-0 ATS the past three seasons when coming off three consecutive ATS defeats. Lay the points in this one. The Ragin Cajuns barely got by last place Troy on Saturday, winning 84-80 as 4.5-point chalk, in overtime. But that was also a road game. At home this year, this team has had little difficulty scoring as they average a whopping 86.9 points per contest. Overall, Lafayette ranks in the top 20 in scoring in the entire country. That would make them a bad matchup for a Texas State team that averages just 58 PPG on the road. That's almost a thirty point per game scoring difference we're talking about and the home team is only being asked to lay single digits! Lafayette already beat Texas State once this year, 72-63, as one-point road favorites. They actually led by as many as 16 in that contest before the Bobcats came back to make things more interesting than they should have been. There have been a number of games this year where the Ragin Cajuns have let teams back in after building a big lead, but I'm not overly concerned about that here. Texas State isn't going to shoot 62 percent from the field like Troy did on Saturday, a game where Lafayette led by eight w/ just 90 seconds remaining. The Bobcats were just 29.3 percent overall Saturday vs. Georgia State and are below 40 percent shooting for the year. The favorite needs this game as they pursue a top four seed in the SBC Tournament. Way too much offensive firepower from the home team, which has topped 80 pts eight times in 2015 while Texas State has actually been held below 45 pts three times during that same span. 8* LA Lafayette |
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02-18-15 | Colorado v. Oregon -6 | Top | 60-73 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
full analysis soon |
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02-18-15 | UCLA v. Arizona State -2.5 | Top | 66-68 | Loss | -102 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
10* Arizona State (9:00 ET): We'll get our weekly dose of Bill Walton here as his alma mater faces Arizona State in Tempe. The Sun Devils have alternated wins and losses (or rather losses and wins) over the L6 games and come off a victory at Washington, 78-68 as 2.5-point favorites. UCLA, at one point left for dead, has won 8 of its last 11 including B2B victories at home over Oregon and Oregon State. But in handicapping the matchup, the thing that sticks out to me is the home court advantage. UCLA is just 3-9 SU away from home (2-6 SU/ATS in "true" road games) and Arizona State is 11-3 SU at home and the last time we saw them here, they defeated Arizona. It's a short number here, so I'll lay it. UCLA is a team that averages 71.5 points per game this season. That number drops to 60.9 away from home. Their last two road games, one win and one loss, were both decided by two points. But considering UCLA is just 3-8 ATS as an underdog and not getting many points here, it's tough to drum up much support for them here. The win Saturday over Oregon was a revenge spot for the Bruins as was the win over Oregon State last Thursday. Both wins were also at home, which brings us back to that disadvantage for tonight. There have been four Pac 12 opponents that UCLA has split two meetings with so far, winning at home and losing on the road. This is also somewhat of a lookahead as they'll be playing Arizona this weekend. Arizona State has played only one bad game over the last month and that was at Stanford, ironically a team UCLA has already swept. Since then, the Sun Devils' only other two losses have been by a combined four points, one of them coming in overtime. Saturday's win over Washington was their first on the road since January 22nd. But as I've already beaten into the ground, this one is at home. ASU has revenge from a double digit loss last year suffered in Pauley Pavillion and I think they're catching the Bruins at the perfect time. 10* Arizona State |
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02-18-15 | Vanderbilt v. Florida -5.5 | Top | 47-50 | Loss | -106 | 20 h 32 m | Show |
8* Florida (7:00 ET): I'm not sure if there's been a more "cursed" team in the country this year than Florida, who in my opinion is far better than their 12-13 SU record indicates. I mean, how many close losses can one team take? Overall, the Gators have dropped seven of nine, three of those defeats coming by one point. At this point, their only hope of making the NCAA Tournament is to win the SEC Tournament. But a strong finish to the regular season would also be beneficial and I think tonight is an opportunity to "snap out of it" and earn a blowout win at the expense of Vanderbilt. Florida lost the first meeting w/ the Commies (by six points), which at the time snapped a seven-game losing streak for Vandy. I'll call for revenge tonight. Since "upsetting" Florida on February 3rd, Vanderbilt has won two of three, including 76-68 at Alabama over the weekend. Their chances of winning B2B road games doesn't seem very high considering they now have just three victories outside of Memorial Gym. As mentioned before, this is a team that at one point had dropped seven consecutive SEC games. A rare 2:1 edge in free throw attempts on the road was a big difference as the Commodores won their first SEC away game Saturday at Bama. They shot the ball better than usual as well, and turned it over only six times. That offset a rebounding disadvantage and don't forget the Tide were w/out their second leading scorer. I still believe in Billy Donovan's team and would like to see them make a run in March. The Gators are holding teams under 60 points per game for the season and here at home have a +11.6 scoring differential. Playing w/ revenge and trying to snap a four-game losing streak will have the team properly motivated this evening. Incredibly, this team has gone 1-6 SU in games decided by two points or less, so again they are much better than their overall record. No Florida team has lost five in a row since 1998 and I think this one will find a way to score enough points to grab the cover. 8* Florida |
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02-18-15 | Davidson v. George Washington -1 | Top | 65-63 | Loss | -117 | 20 h 32 m | Show |
8* George Washington (7:00 ET): GW is one-point away from being on a five-game losing streak and has fared poorly at the betting window, going 2-10 ATS its last 12 games. So they really could use a win more than usual tonight and thankfully, Davidson comes in tonight somewhat overvalued due to a three-game win streak over teams in the lower half of the A-10. GW has actually now fallen a game behind them into sixth place, but having the home court edge tonight and basically only needing a SU win is huge for the Colonials' cause and I see them getting back into the win column here. GW is off a home loss to Virginia Commonwealth over the weekend. The game was tied at halftime but the return of Treveon Graham plus VCU's trademark "Havoc Defense" was just too much for the Colonials. VCU was the more desperate team there, a role the Colonials now find themselves in for tonight. Keep in mind that Saturday was GW's first home loss all season. It almost seems as if the linesmakers are "punting" on this team, but as is often the case that's a good time to "buy low" on a team, which is what I'm doing here. There was a time earlier this year when I played AGAINST them (1st meeting w/ VCU), but that was at a time when you could argue they were drastically OVERVALUED due to winning 10 of 11 games. Meanwhile, I'm not sure how much faith I put into Davidson's little three-game win streak. They did win at LaSalle over the weekend, 77-69, but overall the Wildcats have had a pretty favorable A-10 schedule thus far. They did beat both Dayton and UMass, but winning consecutive road games may be above their "pay grade." This will be the third set of B2B road games in conference play for them and in both previous instances they won the first game, only to lose the second. That pattern should repeat itself here and guard Jack Gibbs remains questionable w/ a knee injury. 8* George Washington |
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02-17-15 | Drake v. Evansville -10 | Top | 52-61 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
8* Evansville (8:00 ET): This is a revenge spot for the Purple Aces. They lost at Drake, as 6.5-point favorites, back on January 30th by a score of 70-65. The Bulldogs shot the ball exceptionally well (54.5%) in the contest, something we're unaccustomed to seeing as this is a hardly an efficient or prolific offense. For the season, Drake averages just 58.9 points per game. On the road is where they really struggle, averaging just 53.4 PPG, and they've lost 13 of 14 (including neutral site games). Evansville's loss in the first meeting kickstarted a three-game losing streak, but they've since bounced back w/ B2B wins, including at Southern Illinois Saturday, 72-64 as a one-point dog. Similar to Villanova last night, bank on the revenge angle here. Drake was blown out Saturday, on the road. They lost 75-54 as nine-point dogs at Indiana State. Like Evansville, the Sycamores were a team that Drake had previously beaten at home. It was a 27-point swing from the first to the second matchup w/ ISU, so right there you can see the difference between the Bulldogs at home and on the road. It's was a similar story w/ other opponents, Wichita State and Illinois State as well. Against Wichita State, the Bulldogs lost by just eight at home and by 34 on the road. Against Illinois State, they also lost by eight at home, but by 36 on the road. Sense a pattern? With Drake allowing its opponents to shoot nearly 52 percent from the field on the road, Evansville figures to have a big offensive night and they come in averaging 76.4 PPG at home on better than 50% shooting to begin with. Speaking of shooting the ball well, the Purple Aces were at 56.3% vs. SIU Saturday. Five different players scored in double figures. This is a game where the favorite should dominate and on top of that they'll have the revenge factor motivating them. 8* Evansville. |
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02-17-15 | Wake Forest v. Notre Dame -11 | Top | 75-88 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
10* Notre Dame (7:00 ET): Since its big win over Duke back on January 28th landed them at 20-2 straight up and firmly in the Top 10, the Fighting Irish have split their last four games. Even worse is that they've gone 0-4 against the spread as they barely escaped Clemson w/ a win last week, 60-58 as 3.5-point chalk. But w/ a full week to prepare on top of facing a weak opponent at home, this is a game where they should break that streak. Wake Forest, who is below .500 and 2-7 in "true" road games, is in a tough spot here after they lost by only one point at #2 Virginia over the weekend. I can't see them competing that hard for a second time in four days against a superior, and in this case, well-rested opponent. Notre Dame has typically been a strong home team under HC Mike Brey and this season has been no different. They're 15-1 SU in South Bend, the lone loss coming to Virginia, and are outscoring visiting teams by an average of greater than 20 points per game here. For the record, the Irish are still Top 10 in the country (#10) and let's be honest, they are just too much for a Wake Forest squad that averages just 63 PPG on the road. In addition to a 1.5:1 assist to turnover ratio, Notre Dame also ranks second in the entire country in field goal percentage at 51.2 percent. I just don't see how Danny Manning's team can keep up in this one. In an odd scheduling quirk, Wake Forest's last and next opponent is Virginia. Saturday saw the Demon Deacons turn the ball over on their final possession, down one, after nearly rallying back from a 13-point second half deficit. Missing 10 free throws didn't help either. Notre Dame catching them in the middle of this "Virginia sandwich" is advantageous as Wake Forest could and likely is looking ahead to the rematch. Remember though that Virginia was w/out its second leading scorer on Saturday, which certainly helped the Demon Deacons stay close. Six times this season Wake Forest has lost by double digits. Make it seven here 10* Notre Dame |
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02-17-15 | St. John's v. Georgetown -7 | Top | 57-79 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
8* Georgetown (7:00 ET): Both of these Big East rivals are coming off big victories. Georgetown destroyed Seton Hall, 86-67 as three-point favorites, while St. John's upset Xavier on the road (as eight-point dogs), 78-70. Red Storm leading scorer D'Angelo Harrison (19.1 PPG) injured his calf in the win and while he's still expected to play tonight, I have to wonder if he'll be as effective as he usually is. My guess is he won't be. He had only five points in the second half Saturday as the team had to hold off a Xavier rally. The host Hoyas are hungry for a big win here, and have revenge on their minds from a 22-point loss last season. Coming off B2B losses to Providence and Villanova, G'town needed the kind of performance they delivered last Tuesday at Seton Hall where they blew the Pirates out of the water. Granted, Seton Hall is experiencing its fair share of issues right now. But it was still a very impressive performance from the Hoyas, who shot the ball at a 52.5% clip for the game after making 11 of their first 16 shot attempts. Having had a full week off to prepare here is big. They have never lost at home to St. John's under HC John Thompson III. The Hoyas are holding teams to just 62.7 points per game here at home. Their last three wins have actually all come on the road, by double digit margins. With only one player on the roster taller than 6'9" on its roster, St. John's is likely to struggle with G'town's height. 8* Georgetown. |
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02-16-15 | Butler -2.5 v. Creighton | Top | 58-56 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
10* Butler (9:15 ET): The Bulldogs will be looking to bounce back from a deflating 68-65 home loss to Villanova on Saturday that put them two games back in the race for the Big East regular season title. Having now been swept by 'Nova, their chances of winning said championship seem minimal. But as far as bouncing back tonight goes, Creighton should be fairly accommodating. Though they've won three of their last five, including 77-70 over Marquette on Saturday (-4.5), the Bluejays are in the midst of a down year at 12-14 SU overall. They were actually able to stay within three (as 9-pt dogs) at Hinkle Fieldhouse last month, but I don't envision the rematch being quite as close as the Bulldogs don't figure to shoot the ball as poorly this go around. Butler shot just 33.8 percent from the field on January 21st when they beat Creighton 64-61. While their shooting away from home has been at time questionable, this is a team that shoots the ball at a 44.3% clip overall, so we should see improvement from that last meeting. Meanwhile, Creighton is last in the conference at 41.1 percent from the field. The Bulldogs followed that win over the Bluejays by winning their next four, three of them by double digits. Saturday's game vs. Villanova could have gone either way, but what we do know is that Butler is 3-0 SU this season off a conference loss. They are also 5-1 ATS the L6 times they have been a road fave of three points or less. Meanwhile, Creighton is off just its third Big East win of the season and has failed miserably coming off the previous two. They were blown out in both instances, by St. John's and Georgetown, losing by a combined 45 points. They're getting more respect from the linesmakers than they deserve here because of the injury to Butler's Andrew Chrabascz. Keep in mind that the Marquette team Creighton just beat is now tied w/ them for last place in the conference and Saturday saw the Bluejays shoot a season best 54.9 percent from the field. I understand that the favorite will miss Chrabascz, but this is such a small number that it's worth laying. 10* Butler |
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02-16-15 | Seton Hall v. Villanova -15.5 | Top | 54-80 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
8* Villanova (7:00 ET): These two Big East teams are trending in very opposite directions of late as Villanova has emerged as a legit national title contender at 23-2 SU for the season after winning their last six games. They come off a key 68-65 road win over Butler that gave them a two-game lead in the conference. Meanwhile, Seton Hall is doing a great job of flushing its own NCAA Tournament hopes down the drain w/ four straight losses, two of them coming at home. They were beaten 69-62 at Providence over the weekend. Normally then, I'd side w/ the desperate underdog in this situation (especially taking this many points), but in this case we have a revenge spot as Seton Hall just so happened to hand 'Nova one of its two losses this season. Look for revenge to be sweet (and profitable) for the favored Wildcats. Back on January 3rd, Seton Hall upset Villanova 66-61 as seven-point dogs and that was w/out Isaiah Whitehead. The game, which was plagued with fouls, went to overtime. Neither side shot well, but the key was the Pirates making 20 of 26 from the FT line while 'Nova was 20 for 35. To say the respective seasons of these teams have gone in different directions since that day would be quite the understatement. Seton Hall, as I mentioned earlier has lost four in a row, plus 8 of their last 11. Villanova has won 10 of 11 and covered the spread in each of their six straight victories. Here in Philly, they've won 12 in a row against the Pirates, covering six of the past nine. Last year, they won by 17. Save for the Seton Hall game, as well as a 20-point loss at Georgetown, Villanova has really dominated the rest of the Big East this season, outscoring opponents by 0.15 points per possession. Darrun Hillard led the way w/ a career high 31 pts Saturday vs. Butler, a team that had gone 12-1 SU at home and was 4-2 SU vs. the Top 25. Keep in mind that the Wildcats have already avenged their other loss this season by blowing out Georgetown, 69-53 as 9.5-point chalk. Seton Hall is dealing w/ a ton of turmoil right now as one player has left the team and two others - Whitehead and leading scorer Sterling Gibbs - clashed physically during a timeout last Tuesday. It's a bad situation for the Pirates right now, made worse by the opponent they'll be facing tonight. 8* Villanova |