Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-15-15 | Minnesota v. Indiana -3 | Top | 71-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:00 ET): Having lost four of six overall, the Hoosiers are certainly making things interesting when it comes to their NCAA Tournament status. But looking at those recent results, one thing becomes apparent and that's the home-road splits. All four losses, including one by only two points earlier this week at Maryland, have come away from Bloomington. Both wins came here at Assembly Hall. Therefore, laying a short number looks a lot better here in what is a revenge spot against a Minnesota team that's prime for a letdown after pulling an upset of Minnesota on Thursday. Lay the points. Let's stick w/ the theme of home vs. road here. IU is 14-1 SU in home games this year, outscoring those opponents by 15.8 points per game. In all other contests (road/neutral) they are just 3-7 SU and see their scoring average drop by nearly 10 full PPG. The majority of their home games in Big 10 play have been relatively close, but in the non-covers they were obviously laying more points than they are here. As a home favorite of three points or less, the Hoosiers are 17-6 ATS L23, including a perfect 2-0 this year. As for Minnesota on the road, I was pretty surprised to see them go to Iowa City and emerge victorious given that they'd won just one "true" road game previously. Also before that, the Gophers had not won or covered a single time this season as an underdog (0-5 SU/ATS previously). They average just 63.3 PPG away from home. The game Wednesday at Maryland certainly could have gone other way, but unfortunately Indiana shot just 37.3% from the field. With 18 lead changes and seven ties, that was probably the difference maker right there. As outlined above though, those same shooting woes should not exist tonight at home. Minnesota still has a losing record in Big 10 play (5-7 SU and 3-9 ATS) and the win Thursday could have been its most impressive of the entire season. That puts them in prime letdown mode tonight against an opponent that has double revenge from the previous two season. The advantages lie w/ the home team. 10* Indiana |
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02-15-15 | Iona v. Quinnipiac +2.5 | Top | 60-57 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
10* Quinnipiac (4:00 ET): I just played Quinnipiac Friday. While the Bobcats fell short of covering the spread there (were laying five), they still did win the game, beating Fairfield on the road 60-59. While I thought I made a pretty clear case that Fairfield is not a very good team, perhaps in retrospect it was a bad idea to lay points with Quinnipiac on the road. But for today, they find themselves in the opposite role, that of home dog. They'll be hosting the top team in the MAAC, that being Iona, who is playing its third consecutive road game and second in three nights. The last one (three-point win at Manhattan) was a close call and I like this situation for the home team, who did cover this season's first matchup. Take the points. This is actually Iona's fourth game in seven days. The Gaels had to play a makeup game at Fairfield earlier in the week, which is what makes this spot so tricky for them. It's their third road game in six days, a tall order for any team. To be honest, Iona is in a pretty comfortable spot right now in the conference, having already swept second place Rider. Their two toughest remaining games (Manhattan, Monmouth) are at home. So what I'm saying is that a loss really wouldn't hurt them too much here as they'd still have a game in hand w/ four to play. Chances are they're going to be the regular season MAAC champs no matter what. I just see the rough schedule catching up to them here. Friday at Manhattan, the Gaels shot 52.2% for the game and made 11 of 18 three-pointers. Three-point shooting definitely was the difference in that one as the Jaspers went only 5 for 20 from behind the arc. Quinnipiac will have to bring one of its trademark strong defensive efforts in this one. Given that they are holding visitors to just 37.1% shooting and 61.8 points per game this season, I'm not overly concerned. Iona shot much better than did Quinnipiac in the first matchup of the season, but w/ the change in venue I anticipate a different story unfolding here. 10* Quinnipiac |
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02-15-15 | Illinois v. Wisconsin -13.5 | Top | 49-68 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show |
8* Wisconsin (1:00 ET): At 22-2 SU, it's difficult to say that Wisconsin is playing better now that than they have at any other point in the season. But the Badgers certainly are rolling in Big 10 play, winning seven straight w/ six of those coming by double digits. They're off a 10-point win at Nebraska earlier this week, and if all goes according to plan Sunday afternoon in Madison, then they could move up even higher in the rankings as Virginia, Duke and Gonzaga all struggled in victories this week. As you'd expect, the Badgers are laying double digits here at home, but given that they're outscoring teams by over 20 points per game at the Kohl Center, covering such a spread shouldn't be much of a problem. Lay the points. Illinois is on a nice little run themselves as they've won four straight, including an outright victory at Michigan State last Saturday. They followed that up by beating Michigan in overtime Wednesday as John Groce's team looks to get off the bubble and solidify its NCAA Tournament status. The problem here though is they are in Madison where they lost by 25 last year. Overall, they are 0-4 SU/ATS vs. the Badgers the L2 years. Each of their last four visits here have resulted in double digit losses and with Wisconsin currently in peak form (6-0 SU in Big 10 home games w/ avg MOV of 16.4 PPG), there's no real reason to expect anything different today. Led by Player of the Year candidate Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin is just a really good team. They are a surprising third in offensive efficiency nationally (121.1). Per 100 possessions, the Badgers are averaging 125.9 points (best in the nation) while outscoring their opponents by 28.7 points (3rd best in the country). They also own the nation's fourth best defensive rebounding percentage (77%), resulting in opponents averaging just 7.4 second chance points per game, which is third fewest among major conference teams. They also don't turn the ball over. Their 12% TO rate is best in the nation and opponents average just 6.4 PPG off TO's, which is two full points per game less than any other team in the country allows. Quite simply, this is one of the best teams in the country. 8* Wisconsin |
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02-14-15 | Loyola Marymount v. Portland -10 | Top | 63-66 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
10* Portland (10:00 ET): We've got two West Coast Conference teams trending in opposite directions here. Loyola Marymount is coming off B2B blowout losses to BYU and Gonzaga, the latter of whom jumped out to a 20-0 lead Thursday and never looked back. Now the Lions have to play a second road game in three nights against a Portland squad that has won three straight (covered four straight), all by double digits. Two of those wins came on the road, which has to be impressive if you're a Pilots fan. What wasn't impressive though was losing outright at LMU earlier this year, 80-68 as four-point chalk. So that makes this a revenge spot and I expect the home team to take care of business. Lay the points. Portland played at home Thursday night and blew out Pepperdine 69-52 as five-point favorites. They shot 51% for the game, which is better than usual, but what's interesting is they weren't as sharp from behind the three-point line (went only 4 for 16). For the year, they are 38.6% from beyond the arc at home. They did not shoot the ball well at all January 15th vs. Loyola Marymount, making less than 40 percent of their shots overall, including 8 for 27 from three-point range. They also only attempted 13 free throws, half the number the Lions did. The +12 edge in made FT's for LMU ended up being the difference in the game. Loyola Marymount has lost five of its last seven on the road. The two wins came against the other teams at the bottom of the WCC, San Francisco and Pacific. I already went over just how ugly things got vs. Gonzaga right off the bat (eventually lost by 29) and the potential for a similar result tonight is there as the Lions average only 59.6 points per game away from home. Look for this one to get ugly in a hurry. 10* Portland |
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02-14-15 | Morehead State v. Belmont -5 | Top | 57-58 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
10* Belmont (7:00 ET): This would be a classic bounce back spot for Belmont, who returns home after an 0-3 road trip that saw the L2 games both decided by just two points. The Bruins have fallen one-half game behind Eastern Kentucky in the OVC East Division. Those two will meet on this floor next Thursday, but up first is a spot that Belmont absolutely needs to take care of, that being a home date w/ Morehead State, who like the Bruins are 7-5 SU in conference play. But the difference is that the Eagles still sport a sub-.500 record overall. They handed Belmont one of those two recent two-point defeats, so the revenge angle is present in this one and I'll note that the Bruins are 6-2 SU the last eight times they've looked to avenge a road loss. After beating Belmont last Saturday, Morehead State would go on to lose at Eastern Kentucky (a darkhorse team worth keeping an eye on) by a score of 69-57 (as 6.5-point dogs) Wednesday. That result did Belmont no favors as coupled w/ their own 72-70 loss at Jacksonville State (were 7.5-pt favorites!), it put the Bruins in second place in their own division. Somewhat surprisingly, Morehead State swept a three-game conference road swing earlier this year, but at EKU they couldn't play much defense as they allowed the Eagles to shoot 51.2 percent from the field as well as 23 of 27 (85.2%) from the FT line. Belmont has to be ecstatic to be back home, where they've gone 9-2 straight up this season. They've won five in row here, the last two coming by double digits. But then came the three-game road trip. Losing at Eastern Kentucky was certainly not something that seemed inconceivable, but following it up w/ B2B two-point losses was disappointing. Particularly the last one, as Jacksonville State is not a very good team at all. Somehow, the Bruins lost despite shooting 54.5% from the field. They were a preposterous 25 of 38 on two-point field goals, but did not shoot well from behind the three-point arc nor did they get to the free throw line very often. Back at home, look for that to change. 10* Belmont |
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02-14-15 | Ohio State v. Michigan State -2 | Top | 56-59 | Win | 100 | 3 h 32 m | Show |
8* Michigan State (12:00 ET): I had the Spartans in their last game, which ended up turning into an easy win/cover at Northwestern, 68-44 as seven-point favorites. Today, they return to East Lansing and step up in class to take on surging Ohio State. I've seen the Buckeyes slotted as a potential 7-seed for the NCAA Tournament, which I think would be far too low as they've won five of their last six, with the lone loss coming by two points at Purdue. However, they've also played a shockingly low level of road games so far, just seven "true" ones, and gone 3-4 straight up. This game means more to Sparty, so I'll lay the short number. Michigan State has zero wins against the top 25 so far, which is uncharacteristic of a Tom Izzo coached team. But still, they are 11-4 SU at the Breslin Center their L15 vs. ranked teams, the one this year coming to Maryland in double OT. The last two times the Buckeyes have come in here ranked, they have lost. Sparty did lose their previous home game, 59-54 as 9.5-point chalk to Illinois, but I look for a bounce back here as they remain 10-3 SU at home for the year while holding the opposition to just 59.2 points per game. Speaking of bounce back, they did just that Tuesday in Evanston, where they jumped out to a monster 38-14 lead at halftime. Defensively, they held the Wildcats to 35.7% shooting for the game. As much respect as I have for Ohio State, I think that they are entirely too dependent on D'Angelo Russell, who over the last 7 games has consistently been above his season average of 19.4 points per game. When Russell doesn't get help though, things typically do not go well for the Buckeyes. They've lost three of the four games where he failed to score at least 14 points. Surprisingly, only one of those games has come on the road. However, one thing I've noticed is that as a team, OSU tends to shoot much worse away from Columbus, down to 41.4%, which is well under their overall 50.1% season average. Look for MSU to put the clamps down defensively in this one. 8* Michigan State |
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02-13-15 | Quinnipiac -4.5 v. Fairfield | Top | 60-59 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
10* Quinnipiac (8:00 ET): Fairfield is not a good team at all, which should be apparent considering they come into tonight's game on a seven-game losing streak. They had a couple of close calls in there, but the Stags have lost their last two by double digits, including a make-up w/ Iona (72-57) at home Tuesday night. But don't tell Quinnipiac how bad Fairfield is, because they lost to them, at home, back on December 4th in overtime. So, we have a revenge spot for a team that's arguably now in its finest form of the season. The Bobcats have won two straight and five of seven after drubbing Niagara on Sunday, 91-69 as 12.5-point chalk. That too was a revenge spot as they had recently lost to the Purple Eagles in double overtime. Now 7-3 SU L10 when seeking revenge for a home loss, Quinnipiac should roll in this one. I'm not surprised very often, but I was when I found that Quinnipiac actually leads the nation in rebounds per game at 45.2. That gives them a big edge over a Fairfield team that is near the other end of the spectrum at 278th in RPG. Given that the Stags don't shoot the ball particularly well (they've been below 39% in seven of their last eight games) that means big trouble here. The Stags don't even average 60 points per game at home and on Tuesday never led while falling behind by as many as 26. Meanwhile, Quinnipiac never trailed in its last game where it shot 54.4 percent from the field (on 68 attempts). They were 14 for 24 from three-point range. In the first meeting, neither team shot the ball well at all, Quinnipiac in particular. The Bobcats finished the game at just 30 percent and w/ 52 points. Remember that was an overtime game. But that's the kind of sloppy performance by the opponent that Fairfield needs to win a game and counting on that happening again tonight seems foolish. Since that game, which again took place on December 4th, the Stags have won just three times in 16 games. Seven of those losses have come by seven points or more. So, I expect the Bobcats to succeed in another revenge spot, laying a short number. 10* Quinnipiac |
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02-13-15 | Cleveland State -4 v. Detroit | Top | 65-66 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
8* Cleveland State (8:00 ET): Cleveland State is tied w/ two other teams atop the Horizon League standings, Valparaiso and Green Bay, who will be playing each other tonight. So to "keep pace" w/ the winner of that game, Gary Waters' Vikings must win here in Detroit against an opponent they've beaten three straight times. But while the first meeting this season was decided by only four points, I expect CSU to be even better this time around as there is no denying that the Vikings are in peak form right now, having won three straight and 9 of their last 11. Each time they've won three straight, they've lost the next time out, but I look for them to break that pattern here tonight and I'll lay the points. Cleveland State's only two losses over its L11 games have come by a combined five points. This is a team that also went 3-0 ATS against Louisville, Virginia and VCU during the non-conference portion of the schedule. They're not a team you want to face this time of year, considering the slow pace they play at (just 61.8 possessions per game) and the fact they force a steal on 12.3 percent of opponents' possessions, which is 18th best in the entire country. Had Charlie Lee not been suspended for the first six games of the season, the Vikings probably would not have lost to the likes of Savannah State and Iona. They are much better than their 15-10 SU record would seem to indicate. Additionally, CSU has gone 8-3 ATS in road games this season. They did lose their last one, but that was to a better team (Oakland) then who they're facing here. Detroit has lost three in a row and five of six, the lone win coming against last place Youngstown State, and just feel to UIC 83-73 as 9.5-point home favorites. In the first matchup between these teams this season, Cleveland State won by only four (laying seven), needing a miracle run late despite poor shooting from the Titans. The Vikings would lose their next game, but have since won three straight by double digits, including 88-72 over Wright State on Saturday where they shot a ridiculous 61% from the field. 8* Cleveland State |
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02-13-15 | Wisconsin Green Bay v. Valparaiso -3 | Top | 59-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
10* Valparaiso (7:00 ET): This is a huge game in the Horizon League w/ the winner assuring themselves of no worse than a first place tie atop the conference. Three teams are currently tied for first place, these two and Cleveland State, who plays at Detroit this evening. So it's conceivable that the winner here could be alone in first by night's end. These teams just met on January 23rd and it was Green Bay winning 51-50 over Valparaiso, but I had the underdog +5.5 and will now back them as the favorite, playing w/ revenge, in the rematch. The Crusaders led that first matchup for the entire first half and never trailed by more than four points. At home, I expect them to be even better. That loss to Green Bay is the only time all season where Valpo didn't win when leading at half. It's also their only defeat in the last 10 games. The way I see it, if the Crusaders don't shoot a horrific 5 for 27 in the 2nd half, then they would have won January 23rd. I view that shooting performance as a total anomaly as for the season the team is above 47 percent, including 37% from three-point range. Had they even shot 30 percent in the 2H vs. Green Bay, they would have won. This is a team that's won 11 of 12 home games this season (only loss to New Mexico) and is 22-4 SU overall. I have them, not Green Bay, as the team to beat in this conference. As for Green Bay, they are coming off a tight win against a bad Youngstown State team. That's a Youngstown State team that's lost 11 of its 12 league games. From a scheduling standpoint, I give a big edge here to the home team. Green Bay last played Wednesday and this is their second road game in three nights. Valpo has been off since Sunday and the home team has won the last four times these teams have played. I realize that we should probably expect another close game here, but Valpo is better rested and has the motivation of revenge on its mind for letting one slip away that they should have won. They're in better current form than the Phoenix right now. 10* Valparaiso |
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02-12-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls +2 | Top | 98-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:05 ET): The winner of this game will go into the All-Star Break as the third place team in the Eastern Conference. Coming into the year, one could have argued that these two teams were the co-favorites to win the East. But with surprisingly strong showings from both Atlanta and Toronto, the best either is likely to finish at the end of the year is second. Cleveland, who has now won 14 of its last 15 since LeBron James returned from his injury, has beaten Chicago twice so far, once on the road and once at home. But they also had to play last night (while the Bulls had off) giving the home team a pretty nice situational advantage in this one. I like the Bulls here. Each side has a major question mark on the injury front tonight. For Cleveland, Kevin Love suffered a scratched eye in last night's 113-93 win over Miami (that I was on). Chicago could be w/out Jimmy Butler, problematic in the sense that he would be the one primarily in charge of guarding James, but the team still did fine w/out him in the second half Tuesday when they beat Sacramento 104-86, their third consecutive victory. My power rankings have these teams pretty close to even, so Chicago should be a slight favorite tonight. The rest and the double revenge angle are big for them. I was on Cleveland last night, but also went against them the last time they played on the road, which was Friday in Indiana. I mentioned there that the bulk of the damage the Cavs have done during this win streak of theirs has come at home. Tonight will be only their fourth road game since January 19th and the previous three were against Detroit, Minnesota and Indiana, all of whom are currently below .500. LeBron and company are actually just a .500 team on the road for the season while being slightly outscored as well. They allow 101.1 points per game away from home. The Bulls are 3-1 SU w/out Butler in the lineup this season. Good value on the home team in this one. 10* Chicago |
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02-12-15 | Ole Miss v. Florida -4.5 | Top | 62-61 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
10* Florida (7:00 ET): The story of this year's Florida Gators squad has essentially "already been written" and the main theme throughout has been "bad luck." Numerous close losses, the most recent of which came Saturday night vs. Kentucky, have ensured that it will take nothing short of a miracle run through the SEC Tournament for this perennial Elite Eight group to even make the Big Dance. Billy Donovan's team has five losses by four points or less and eight by seven or less, which is what probably made them so attractive as the home dog Saturday night, but here I'm still willing to lay points as they host an Ole Miss team that I feel is a tad bit overrated coming in on a five-game win streak. One of Mississippi's wins during the current streak came at the expense of Florida. Not surprisingly, it was close. In fact, the game was decided by one point in Oxford as the Rebels' Jarvis Summers put his team ahead twice in the final 30 seconds, including the GW free throws w/ 9.8 seconds to go. In true fashion, Florida found a way to lose despite shooting 12 of 20 on three-pointers. The last three matchups between these teams have all been decided by four points or less, so again, it might seem a little bit curious to want to lay points in this situation w/ what has been to this point an unlucky team. But I just feel that the Gators are due for a big win, sooner rather than later. Ole Miss comes in at 7-1 ATS on the road after beating Auburn 86-79 on Saturday. Extraordinarily hot shooting for the game (57.8% from the field!), including 55 second half points, was the difference there for the Rebels as they trailed by one going into halftime. Ole Miss also benefited from attempting 38 free throws in the game. They won't be able to rely on that, night in, night out. The Rebels have essentially experienced the opposite fortune of Florida, at least lately, with three of their last five wins coming by seven points or less. Because of the disappointing season, we are able to catch the Gators in a favorable price range here. Look for them to hurt Ole Miss' own NCAA Tournament hopes tonight. 10* Florida |
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02-12-15 | Tulsa v. Connecticut -4 | Top | 45-70 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
10* Connecticut (7:00 ET): Tulsa entered Saturday as one of the last remaining teams in the entire country to not have a conference loss on its resume, but the AAC leaders had their first hung on them by SMU, 67-58, and telling about the Golden Hurricane's current status in the market is that they were actually slight dogs at home. The loss snapped a 12-game overall win streak, one that included plenty of good fortune, as half of the victories were by seven points or fewer. Tonight they travel to Storrs to face the defending National Champs, who at 13-9 SU are still trying to turn things around. UConn did snap a seven-game ATS slide w/ a 62-53 win (as five-point chalk) at Tulane on Saturday and I like them here laying a short number at home. Considering how long its been, it will be interesting to see how Tulsa performs off a loss here. Despite an 8-3 record on the road or in neutral site games, they've outscored their opponents by just 2.4 points per game in such situations, averaging only 62.8 PPG themselves. Prior to running into SMU on Saturday, the Golden Hurricane had played a fairly easy conference schedule, avoiding almost all of the top teams except Temple. They shot just 28.3% and scored 57 points against the Mustangs and that was at home! SMU's length gave them all sorts of problems and I belive UConn can create similar matchup advantages. UConn has won B2B games straight up, over East Carolina and Tulane, and this is a revenge spot for them after losing to Tulsa earlier this year by eight on the road. In that first matchup, the Huskies shot the ball poorly (just 34 percent in the 1H) and fell into a 16-point hole. I do not expect a repeat of that here. UConn was actually a one-point favorite in Tulsa, so again we see where the Golden Hurricane stand w/ the linesmakers, plus I think that means there's a little value on the Huskies here laying a small number at home. Look for defense to be the difference in this one as the Huskies have allowed just 52.5 PPG in their last two victories and just 56.5 PPG here at home for the season. 10* Connecticut |
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02-11-15 | Utah Jazz v. Dallas Mavericks -3.5 | Top | 82-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:35 ET): This is a shockingly low pointspread for the Mavs at home. Granted, they are probably going to be w/out three starters for this one (Rondo, Chandler, Ellis), but even so, I don't view Utah as a real challenge. Using a variety of lineups, Dallas has beaten the Jazz seven straight times, most recently 105-82 in Salt Lake City back in November. Rondo wasn't even on the team at that point and it was Dirk Nowitzki leading the way there w/ a team-high 27 points. Even without possibly 60 percent of their starting lineup, the Mavs will be highly motivated here as they are coming off perhaps their worst performance of the season, a 115-98 home loss to the Clippers. Utah is off B2B wins, but that's a good spot to catch them in, as they haven't won three in a row all season. The Jazz have lost 22 of their last 25 trips to Dallas and have only nine road wins all year as they average just 94.5 points per game away from home. They are coming off a surprising win at New Orleans, though it should be pointed out the Pelicans played that game w/out Anthony Davis. I realize that a case could be made that Utah can take advantage here of a similarly depleted team, but the difference is that the Mavs are deep enough to sustain personnel losses while the Pelicans are nothing w/out Davis. I should also point out that Utah actually trailed New Orleans by 14 points in the third quarter Monday night. The Pelicans were also missing Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holiday, so that's a loss of over 55 points per game. Even without some key pieces, it's difficult to imagine Dallas being any worse than they were Monday night when they shot just 40.7 percent from the field, their worst shooting percentage in the L18 games. This is a team that averages 108.1 PPG at home on 47.7% shooting, so expect a much better effort on the offensive end here tonight. In the end, Dallas is still a better team than Utah even without some key cogs and the the linesmakers have overreacted to the potential absences , in my mind. 10* Dallas |
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02-11-15 | Miami Heat v. Cleveland Cavaliers -12 | Top | 93-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Big number, but a big revenge spot for the Cavs, who lost to the Heat on Christmas Day. Incredibly, Miami has now beaten Cleveland 11 straight times although Xmas marked the first time that LeBron James was on the losing end of one of those games. Obviously, Cleveland is playing MUCH better now than they were over the Holidays as they come into Wednesday having won 13 of their last 14 games, including 120-105 over the Lakers Sunday afternoon. Miami, meanwhile, as this pointspread indicates is just not a very good team. They did snap a three-game losing skid w/ a win over New York on Monday, but have largely been unable to string together any win streaks for the majority of the season. Lay the points here in what should end up being a blowout. When these teams met on Christmas Day, the Cavs were actually seven games above .500 and on a three-game win streak. But there can be no denying that they're a better team today. A series of moves that brought in Timofy Mozgov, JR Smith and Iman Shumpert has solidified the depth and more clearly defined roles. LeBron has averaged 28.1 points per game since returning from injury and the team is 22-5 SU when he has 7+ assists. James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love are coming off arguably their strongest collective performance of the season Sunday where they combined for 82 points on better than 60 percent shooting. Each scored at least 20 and contributed either double digit rebounds or assists. Here at home, Cleveland has been really dominating teams, outscoring eight of their last nine visitors by double digits. Miami is a team that cannot keep pace w/ the Cavaliers offensively. The Heat rank 28th in the league in points per game (92.8), not to mention last in rebounding and second to last in assists. Their only saving grace is the fact they are second in points allowed (96.3), but unless they catch Cleveland on a cold-shooting night, this is going to be a rough matchup for them. At their best, the Cavs are one of the most offensively efficient teams in the league and have topped 120 points more than any other club this season. 8* Cleveland |
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02-11-15 | Virginia v. NC State +8 | Top | 51-47 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
8* NC State (8:00 ET): This is a bit of a letdown spot for #2 Virginia, who is coming off games against Duke, North Carolina and Louisville. Now, they're caught laying points on the road at a North Carolina State team, who not only beat Duke here in Raleigh, but also hung within two points of North Carolina as well. Four of the Wolfpack's previous five games have been decided by five points or less, curiously they're 0-4-1 ATS in those games, but this will obviously be the biggest number they've gotten during that span. Earlier this year, they lost by only 10 in Charlottesville. It should be closer this time. Take the points. It was an ugly game to put it mildly when Virginia beat Louisville at home over the weekend. The Cavaliers shot just 33.3 percent from the field, which is the fifth worst shooting percentage by any team in a win over a top 10 opponent in the previous five seasons. Their defense is absolutely incredible, mind you, but they'll need more than that when laying points on the road. Also, one of their best defensive players and second-leading scorer (Justin Anderson) is out for 4-6 weeks w/ a broken finger. The Cavaliers have had some close calls on the road this year, most notably a three-point win over Virginia Tech, and I just don't trust them to score enough to cover the spread when its this large. They've now scored 57 pts or fewer in three of their last five games. The two UVA players who figure to get the majority of Anderson's minutes are Evan Nolte and Marial Shayok, neither of whom has scored more than nine points in a game this season. Situationally, the Cavaliers do appear to be set for a letdown w/ their next six opponents all unranked and .500 or worse in ACC play. But, as mentioned before, NC State deserves to be taken seriously as they've won four of seven against Top 10 opponents here at home and also took Notre Dame to overtime on January 25th. I love the situation for them as the Wolfpack have been off for over a week, giving them ample time to prepare while UVA had to play the difficult game vs. Louisville. The first time these teams played, the Wolfpack actually had the lead late in the 2H and again that was in Charlottesville. 8* NC State |
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02-11-15 | TCU v. Texas -9 | Top | 43-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
8* Texas (8:00 ET): The Longhorns picked up a much needed win Saturday at Kansas State, beating the Wildcats 61-57 as 1.5-point favorites, snapping a four-game losing streak. Rick Barnes' team has some ugly losses on its resume this year, but they also have several close ones, so they remain a tough team to get a beat on. What I do know though is that they have already clobbered TCU on the road, 66-48 (-2.5) back on January 19th, and that the bottom has dropped out for the Horned Frogs here in Big 12 play. TCU has lost six in a row and nine of 10 in conference play and the slide should continue tonight in Austin. Lay the points. Some of TCU's Big 12 losses have been close, but certainly not the last three as they've been beaten by an average of over 16 points per game. Every contest was decided by double digits, including Saturday's 68-56 loss to Oklahoma, which was at home. Incredibly, the Horned Frogs missed their first 13 shot attempts in the game, which obviously played a large role in them finishing only 31.5 percent for the game. Ironically, their first "made" basket actually came on a goaltending call on the Sooners, who finished w/ 13 blocked shots. Texas has similar length that should create matchup problems for TCU. The Longhorns dropping out of the rankings this week spares TCU from playing a seventh consecutive game against a Top 25 team, but still, you get the point on just how deep the Big 12 is this year. Make no mistake about it, that was an impressive win Texas had Saturday as few teams go into Manhattan and win. Considering they shot 54.1% from the field and K-State just 31.9%, it's a wonder that the game was that close. Three-point shooting is what kept the Wildcats in that one, but that's something not really in TCU's arsenal as they are a woeful 29.3 percent from behind the arc on the road. The Horned Frogs are also just 3-7 ATS in conference play, so look for the home team to roll in this one. 8* Texas |
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02-11-15 | Washington Wizards +5 v. Toronto Raptors | Top | 93-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:35 ET): These are two of the five teams in the Eastern Conference that I consider "locks" for the playoffs. It is the final game before the All-Star Break for both the Wizards and Raptors, who each come into this game off B2B wins. After a nine-game ATS losing streak, Washington has turned things around with a pair of blowouts over Brooklyn and Orlando at home. This is a step up and while the Raptors have beaten them twice this season, I like the points. The key will be Washington continuing its defensive prowess as Toronto averages 105.8 points per game. But in three of their last four, the Raptors have been held to 93 pts or less, including 87 in their last game. I was on the Wizards Monday as they clobbered a bad Orlando team, 96-80. Including the previous game vs. Brooklyn, Washington has held its last two opponents to 36.9 percent shooting. They are now 17-0 SU when holding opponents to 91 pts or less, which is a number that will produce a good record for most teams. In the Wizards' case, for the season, they rank 8th in the NBA in points allowed at 97.4 per game. Only one of their previous five opponents has topped 94 points. Interestingly, they are now 8-2 SU w/out Bradley Beal, who is expected to miss tonight's game w/ the same toe injury that kept him out Monday. This is a team that rarely gets blown out as the last time they lost by double digits was all the way back on January 16th. Toronto's last two wins are far more impressive than Washington's as they beat the Clippers and Spurs, both here at home. The Spurs' worst shooting night of the season was a big help Sunday while against the Clippers, the Raptors had to rally back from a 20-point deficit. Laying points, this team has not been particularly good, going just 18-19 ATS for the year and that includes 3-6 ATS as home chalk of 3.5 to 6 points. In the end, I just view this as a pretty even matchup where taking points would be the way to go, no matter which team is the underdog. 8* Washington |
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02-11-15 | La Salle v. VCU -8 | Top | 74-69 | Loss | -126 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
8* VCU (7:00 ET): Virginia Commonwealth's once secure lead in the Atlantic 10 is now gone, thanks to two losses in the last three games, including one by two at St. Bonaventure over the weekend. Clearly, the Rams are going to miss PG Briante Weber, who was the nation's leader in steal percentage each of his four seasons here (including this one). Also, the team is now w/out leading scorer and rebounder Treveon Graham, who reaggravated an ankle injury last Weds vs. George Mason. But back at home, Shaka Smart's team should have enough to take care of business against LaSalle, who has won just one of its five A-10 road games. Lay the points. VCU is 9-2 SU at home this season, outscoring teams by 12.1 points per game. They haven't been great at the betting window, but that's because they were largely being asked to lay big numbers. Even without two of its best players, the Rams can still rely on their trademark "Havoc" defense, which forces 17.1 turnovers per game at home. LaSalle is not a great offensive team to begin with; they average 62.7 points per game In five of their last seven games, the Explorers have been held to 60 points or less. On the road, things have been even worse for LaSalle. They drop down to 60.6 PPG. They scored just 59 Sunday at UMass, shooting just 36.4 percent, and UMass is not noted for its defensive prowess (267th nationally in points allowed). I say it's time to "buy low" on VCU as they need this game to stay in front of the "other" Rams, that being Rhode Island. 8* VCU |
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02-10-15 | Nevada v. Utah State -8.5 | Top | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
10* Utah State (9:00 ET): The Aggies are stuck in the middle of the Mountain West standings, but are by no means out of contention. They enter the day just two games back of co-leaders Wyoming and San Diego State, which makes not only tonight's game vs. Nevada, but also next Wednesday's at San Jose State (off this weekend) so important. These next two opponents are the bottom two teams in the league, so they have a great shot at gaining a game on either Wyoming or SDSU, who play one another tomorrow night. Utah State is off a very impressive 63-60 win at New Mexico and I don't fear the letdown here as Nevada is not a real threat. Winning at the famed "Pit" in Albuquerque is no small feat, so give Stew Morrill's team some credit as they never trailed after halftime. That was only New Mexico's third home loss of the season. With Morrill announcing that he will retire at the end of the season, I expect an inspired effort the rest of the way from his team, particularly when here in Logan. The Aggies are allowing an average of just 59.9 points per game at home this season and have typically enjoyed a tremendous home court edge during Morrill's long tenure (262-32 SU!). Nevada is not a good team. They snapped a seven-game losing streak w/ a three-point win at last place San Jose State Saturday, but did not cover as 9.5-point dogs. Right there, that line should indicate just how bad San Jose State is. Utah State has already trashed Nevada once this year, 70-54, and that was in Reno. Surprisingly, they were two-point dogs for that first matchup, but there's no value going the other way here for the rematch as the Wolfpack have just two road wins this year while averaging 56.8 PPG away from home. 10* Utah State |
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02-10-15 | Houston Rockets v. Phoenix Suns -1.5 | Top | 127-118 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (8:05 ET): With Oklahoma City now playing well, it's more important than ever for the Suns to keep winning. Coming into Tuesday, Phoenix has a 1.5 game lead over both New Orleans and OKC for the eighth and final playoff spot in the loaded Western Conference. Tonight, they host a team above them in the standings, that being Houston, in what will be the Suns' final game before the All-Star Break. The Rockets, who are off an outright loss at home to Portland two days ago, must play the Clippers in LA tomorrow night. While the impact of home court advantage has lessened some this year, really a SU win = an ATS win in this situation, so I'll back Phoenix in a game they "have to have." The Suns are off a loss here as well, only theirs is worse, that being an 85-83 setback at the hands of Sacramento on Sunday. The game was decided at the buzzer, on a Boogie Cousins' 19-footer, which was the fourth time this season that Phoenix has lost at the gun. That's the most buzzer-beating losses for any team in the past 10 seasons, and keep in mind we're not even at the All-Star Break yet. So, if the Suns don't make the playoffs, we'll be able to point to something as the primary culprit. In some ways, they were lucky to even be in Sunday's game as they had to rally back from 14 pts down. But here at home, they're easier to like as they average 106.8 points per game on 47.8% shooting. Therefore, don't expect a repeat of the poor shooting we saw in Sacramento where they finished at 36.3% from the field. One of Phoenix's other losses at the buzzer this season came against the Rockets, here at home, back on January 23rd. Houston has won five of seven since then, all w/out Dwight Howard, but a problem I'm seeing is some predictable regression on the defensive end. In three of the last four games, Houston has given up 109+ points, which could mean trouble tonight against the league's 5th best scoring offense. This is actually a double revenge spot for the Suns as they lost in Houston back in December. 10* Phoenix |
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02-10-15 | Toledo v. Buffalo -4 | Top | 92-88 | Loss | -117 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (7:00 ET): Here's a team that I just played AGAINST Saturday as they (Buffalo) came up just short in a close decision at Akron (lost 78-75 as 2.5-pt dogs). The Bulls are now only 1-6 ATS their last seven games and are one-game back of a three-way tie for first place in the MAC East. Tonight, they host the MAC West leaders (Toledo) in a game they almost "have to have" and back at home, I expect them to take care of business. Buffalo has won all eight of its home games this season while averaging over 80 points per game. Toledo is on a five-game win streak and has successfully covered the spread in their last three. But their last four wins have all come at the expense of the bottom of the conference. They've lost four of the five times they've been an underdog this season and the number we're working w/ here is so small that the chances of it coming into play is relatively small. So too is the Rockets repeating Saturday's performance at Ball State where they never trailed and shot 54% from the floor. This is their second road game in four days, a situation they have not yet faced in conference play. One player to keep an eye on here is Buffalo's Justin Moss, who leads the MAC in both scoring and rebounding. He was originally set to play for Toledo before a heart condition temporarily sidetracked his career. I expected him to play a very inspired game tonight. The Bulls are 11-1 SU when favored this season and with the home court, I look for them to bounce back from Saturday's tough loss that really could have gone either way. 8* Buffalo |
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02-10-15 | Michigan State -6 v. Northwestern | Top | 68-44 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
8* Michigan State (7:00 ET): This edition of Spartans' basketball is clearly not as strong as previous ones under HC Tom Izzo, but I feel they should bounce back from an outright loss in East Lansing (59-54 to Illinois) here at Northwestern. Yes, they're laying points (on the road) and have failed to cover six of their last seven games. But Northwestern is in REALLY bad shape right now as they come into Tuesday on a nine-game losing streak. The Wildcats have been extraordinarily "unlucky" in Big 10 play, losing five games by either five pts or less or in overtime. One of those came against Sparty back on January 11th, an 84-77 loss that went to OT. I don't anticipate the rematch being as close. Lay the points. Northwestern has not been as close in recent games, starting w/ the time I played against them here at home vs. Purdue, a 68-60 loss as two-point dogs. Neither game in February has gone well either as they've lost by 16 at Nebraska and by 18 at Wisconsin. They trailed by as many as 22 Saturday in Madison and were outrebounded 39-25, including 13-5 on the offensive glass. So why don't I think this rematch will be as close as the first game, even though it's in Evanston? Well, Michigan State is 10-3 ATS its last 13 visits here, plus I have to imagine they're going to start improving on their woeful free throw shooting (62.1% this year!). They are also 15-5 ATS L20 as a road favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range. They are a perfect 3-0 SU this year off a conference loss and 70-29 SU all-time in that role under Izzo. So Sparty's chances of bouncing back from what happened Saturday are strong. I don't see them shooting 38.5% from the field again, plus they missed 11 of 18 free throws! That overshadowed a pretty solid effort on the defensive end and Northwestern has been held to 60 pts or less in three straight games. The road team should come in and roll. 8* Michigan State |
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02-09-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. Milwaukee Bucks -4 | Top | 97-103 | Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): Other than Atlanta currently having the best record in the league, I think a case could be made that Milwaukee has been the NBA's biggest surprise so far this season. A year removed from finishing w/ the league's worst overall record, they are in sixth in the Eastern Conference and seem to be a pretty safe bet to make the playoffs. Say what you will about HC Jason Kidd, but he's got the team playing well. Speaking of "safe bets," that's exactly what the Bucks have become, going 33-17-1 against the spread. Only Atlanta is better and that's because Milwaukee has failed to cover three straight. I think that they return to the pay window tonight at the expense of a Nets team that just got clobbered in Washington Saturday night. It's amazing that Brooklyn was actually a 6.5-point favorite the first time these teams played this season. Typically, that signals that there might be some value in going w/ them in the rematch, but I think it's pretty clear at this point that the Nets were overvalued coming into the season and the Bucks undervalued. Milwaukee won that first matchup, 122-118 in triple overtime, in Brooklyn. It was a game where emotions were high because of Kidd's return to the place where he coached last year. Here at the Bradley Center, there should be less distraction, plus the Bucks have won four in a row at home. Though still in contention for a playoff spot in the weak East, the Nets are not a good team. They have a scoring differential that's worse than all but five teams. This after being annihilated by the Wizards Saturday night, 114-77 as 6.5-point dogs. That ended a three-game win streak, but don't count on the Nets bouncing back here. They trailed the Wizards by 30 entering the fourth quarter when the respective benches were emptied. PG Deron Williams has just been awful from the field lately and missed all eight shots he took Saturday night. The Bucks have cleaned up against losing teams this year, going 19-7 at the betting window. Lay the short number. 10* Milwaukee |
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02-09-15 | Orlando Magic v. Washington Wizards -10 | Top | 80-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:05 ET): Orlando is off a crushing home loss last night to Chicago. I know because I was on them. Now they did cover, plus the points, for a fourth consecutive game. They actually trailed by 16 after the first quarter before rallying to take a six-point advantage w/ just under two minutes to go. Then the wheels came off as the Bulls scored the final seven points, all off Magic turnovers. After that kind of result, I'd say Orlando is ripe to be blown out for the first time since firing Jacque Vaughn. Washington got back on track Saturday w/ a blowout win over Brooklyn, 114-77 as 6.5-point favorites. That snapped a season-high five-game losing streak, not to mention a nine-game ATS losing streak. The team is now 7-2 SU when Bradley Beal does not play and while I'm not going to make a case that the Wizards are better w/out thier starting SG, the record does say otherwise. Predicting a Washington SU win here should really not even be disputed as the team is 26-9 SU when favored this year. They are also a perfect 7-0 SU vs. Orlando the last 2 seasons, including a pair of wins earlier this season. The only question, in my mind, is whether or not the Wizards can cover. They are probably due to given their ATS woes prior to the Brooklyn game. Then you have the fact Orlando is unrested after blowing a late lead at home. I just see the Magic coming into this one w/ little left "in the tank." 8* Washington |
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02-09-15 | Duke v. Florida State +10.5 | Top | 73-70 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
8* Florida State (7:00 ET): Duke is coming off a massive revenge spot where they clobbered Notre Dame 90-60 as 9.5-point favorites. Therefore, off a quick turnaround, this game isn't likely to have their full attention. That could be a problem as Florida State has covered five of its last six games, including a 73-65 win at Virginia Tech on Saturday. This looks to be a pretty generous number considering the 'Noles were able to stick w/ North Carolina (lost by only four) as 14.5-point dogs in Chapel Hill about two weeks ago. Is Duke that much better than UNC that the line should be this high in Tallahassee? I think not. Take the points. I simply cannot see Duke duplicating the offensive performance we saw Saturday when they shot 60 percent for the game and over 80 percent (not a typo!) in the 1H. At one point, they went on a 43-7 against the Irish in what Coach K dubbed "best half we've played all season." While Duke has a solid 9-2 record away from Durham, they did struggle in a recent three-game road trip. That included a loss to the Irish, plus come from behind wins over St. John's and Virginia. Somehow they still managed to cover in those two wins, but the margin for error tonight is slimmer w/ such a high pointspread. In addition to almost upsetting North Carolina, FSU also beat another Top 25 foe (at the time), that being Miami here in Tallahassee. This will be the most points they've gotten in any home game in the last three seasons. They haven't been in a game decided by double digits since January 11th. This shapes up as the biggest home game of the year for the Seminoles, so they should enjoy tremendous crowd support and you have to figure Duke is getting their best shot. 8* Florida State |
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02-09-15 | Oklahoma State v. Baylor -6.5 | Top | 74-65 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
10* Baylor (7:00 ET): Outside of maybe Texas Tech, there simply aren't many "freebies" in the Big 12 this year as it's the deepest conference in all of the land. Oklahoma State, fresh off an "upset" of Kansas in Stillwater (technically, the Pokes were the underdogs) Saturday, will find that out tonight as they now have to travel to Baylor. The Cowboys actually pulled off two close wins last week, also winning at Texas by five. After such a big win Saturday though, I just hate this spot for them and that's w/ their hosts also being off a SU dog win. I just view what Baylor did to West Virginia, in Morgantown, as more impressive. The Bears won 87-69 as six-point dogs for their third straight win and cover. All three wins have been by double digits. Lay the points. In Waco this year, Baylor is 13-1 straight up. The one loss came by a single point to Kansas. Their last three games here at the Ferrell Center have all resulted in double digits wins w/ the Bears covering the spread by a collective 40 points. This is also a revenge spot for them as they fell 64-53 in Stillwater on January 27th, which is their only defeat over the L6 games. They shot very poorly in that game (34.5% from the floor) en route to scoring a season low in points. That was one of only three times all season that Baylor has been beaten by more than two points! Oklahoma State has not won here in Waco in nine years. The Cowboys will be gunning for their third straight win over a Top 25 team, which would be a record for the program. The problem is that Baylor just might be the best of the bunch in the Big 12 as they not only are 4th in the country in rebounding, but have also averaged 82.3 points per game on 50.6% shooting (includes nearly 50% from 3-pt range!) during the three-game win streak. Turnovers were also an issue in the first matchup w/ OSU (had 13 of them), but Baylor looked a lot better against the press Saturday in Morgantown. Overall, the Bears are 5-1 ATS L6 matchups in this rivalry and 12-4 ATS since joining the conference. The slight improvements they've made, coupled with the homecourt edge, should be enough for them to prevail by a margin larger than what the linesmakers are calling for here. 10* Baylor |
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02-08-15 | Chicago Bulls v. Orlando Magic +6 | Top | 98-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
8* Orlando (6:05 ET): This will be the second game in a row that I'm playing the Magic. Taking in their season as a whole, it feels as if this would not be the best team to back regularly, but consider they've now covered three in a row. More importantly, they won their last time out, 103-97 over the Lakers in overtime, in their first game since firing Jacque Vaughn. This is a lot of points to be getting at home and it's not a great spot for visiting Chicago either as they are in the second night of back to backs and at the end of a six game trip. Take the points. I think that the main reason this line is a little bit inflated is because of what the Bulls did last night in New Orleans where they destroyed the Pelicans 107-72 as slight two-point favorites. A key part of that game was Anthony Davis leaving in the first half w/ a shoulder injury. Actually, in retrospect, you could say that was the determining factor in the result. Without Davis on the floor, the Bulls outscored the Pelicans by 35 points and shot 24 percentage points better from the field. It should be pointed out that Chicago had lost three straight going into last night's game and four of their last five. Defensively, they have not been as strong this year as previous editions under HC Tom Thibodeau, so again they're not a great candidate to be laying this many points away from home. They lost outright to the Lakers early on in the trip as a 10-point choice. Not only are they 8-16 ATS this year vs. teams w/ losing records, but they are 3-6 ATS off a double digit win. 8* Orlando |
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02-08-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Detroit Pistons -7 | Top | 112-101 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
10* Detroit (6:05 ET): Minnesota is coming off B2B one-point victories. The last one was a real stunner as they trailed Memphis by seven w/ just 1:47 to go. This is a team that has not won three games in a row all season. In fact, this is their first winning streak of the year! It's also a road game. They're 4-22 SU on the road this season and their last win away from home January 17th, which is their only road win since the New Year. That includes a loss at Philadelphia. Detroit has won three of four w/ every victory coming by double digits and has revenge from a very early season loss. Lay the points. Here at home, the Pistons are 8-3 straight up and the best news of all is that they're starting to play some defense. They just held Denver to 88 points on Friday and the game was an even bigger blowout than the final score shows as Pistons led 80-62 after three quarters. Though PG Brandon Jennings has been lost for the season, the team's big men are now playing well as Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond combined for 34 points and 34 rebounds Friday. This is a team that early in the season couldn't cover a game when favored. But they cashed as 6.5-point chalk vs. Denver and are now 2-0 ATS this year as home favorites of 6.5 to 9 points. Minnesota is a worse team than the Nuggets, so there's some line value here. The Timberwolves are not a good defensive team. In fact, they give up the most points per game in the entire league, including 110.1 PPG on the road. Off a SU dog win, they are 0-6 straight up and 1-4-1 ATS this year. So this is traditionally not a situation they thrive in and w/ the Pistons having improved so dramatically over the last month, I see them likely winning this game by double digits. 10* Detroit |
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02-08-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 | Top | 88-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
8* Memphis (6:05 ET): After having their 19-game win streak snapped Monday, the Hawks have gotten right back "on the horse," posting B2B wins over Washington and Golden State. The team is now a remarkable 34-3 SU its last 37 games. Yet, for a second straight game they will be an underdog to a Western Conference opponent. But the difference here is they will be on the road. Looking at Atlanta's recent schedule, you'll notice that there simply are not many road games to speak of. In fact, Monday's loss in New Orleans was the ONLY time they played a game away from home in the last three weeks! The Grizzlies are a great home team (21-5 SU), so I absolutely do not mind laying the points in this situation. Memphis is coming off an embarrassing loss Friday in Minnesota. Prior to that, they'd been just as hot as Atlanta, winning 12 of 13, including eight straight. To be blunt, the loss in Minnesota shouldn't have even happened as the Grizzlies blew a seven-point lead in the final 1:47. So we're going to be getting a motivated home side tonight. I should also point out how Memphis leads the league in scoring defense, allowing just 95.9 points per game. Even more impressive is that only once in the last nine games have they allowed more than that. They've given up 90 pts or less in five of their last six games. This is a revenge spot for the Grizzlies. They lost 96-86 in Atlanta last month, but at the time weren't playing nearly as well as they are now (Friday aside). At the time, it was their seventh loss in 11 games. They also didn't have Zach Randolph in the lineup. Over the L8 home games, Randolph has averaged 20.1 PPG and 14.9 RPG. Also, Memphis has gone 8-1 SU at home this year against the Eastern Conference. I'll look for them to hand the Hawks a rare defeat tonight. 8* Memphis |
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02-08-15 | Holy Cross v. Bucknell -5.5 | Top | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
10* Bucknell (2:00 ET): We're going to the Patriot League Sunday as Bucknell will be looking to move into a first place tie w/ Colgate and all they have to do is defeat last place Holy Cross. Therefore, given the stakes, I'm fairly shocked that pointspread isn't higher here. I realize that the difference between first and worst in this league isn't what it is in some other conferences and you can't always get a line on these Patriot League matchups, but we can here and the home team is drastically undervalued. Bucknell is coming off B2B losses and both games could have gone either way. One was by two, here at home, to Colgate. The other, which came earlier this week, was an overtime affair at Lafayette. Making what happened Wednesday even more painful was that the Bison blew a 15-point lead by allowing their opponents to shoot 63 percent from the floor in the second half. Also adding to the motivation level here is that Bucknell is looking to avenge another OT loss, that one coming at Holy Cross back on January 10th. After that, they would go on to win five straight before the B2B losses. I mentioned earlier that ATS info for both of these schools is somewhat sketchy. Bucknell is just 1-3 ATS in its four lined games and has not covered as a favorite once in the last three seasons (0-6 ATS). However, with the inconsistencies of their games being lined, I wouldn't read too much into that. During the recent five-game win streak, four of the wins came by at least six points. That one ATS win this year came at Villanova, whom they lost to by only seven. As for Holy Cross, two of their three lined games have been the last two and they've split them. But both were at home and on the road the Crusaders have won just one time all season, all the way back on Dec 3 at Albany. Look for Bucknell to avenge that earlier loss and move into a first place tie. 10* Bucknell |
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02-07-15 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Dallas Mavericks -2.5 | Top | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:35 ET): Not to beat a dead horse, but the Western Conference is just loaded this year. Behind Golden State is six teams separated by five games, these two among them. Dallas has won four of its last five, the lone loss coming to Golden State. The most recent win was also their most dominant as the Kings had no chance, even in Sacramento, with a final score of 101-78. Meanwhile, the last time we saw Portland, I was on them as they rolled to a comfortable 108-87 win in Phoenix. But of the two teams here, the Blazers are certainly the one that's been struggling more. They'd lost seven of 10 going into Thursday night and while I liked them because they were desperate there, I am gonna go with the Mavs at home tonight. These teams have met only one time previously this season, in Portland, and it was the Blazers winning in a landslide, 108-87 as two-point favorites back in November. While I'm starting to question just how much the home court edge is worth in today's NBA, there can be no denying that Portland has not been at its best away from home recently, losing six straight - all to potential playoff teams. They went 0-3 ATS on a recent trip East to play Atlanta, Cleveland and Milwaukee, and they lost to the same Phoenix team they just beat at home. So I do think the home court matters more than the linesmakers are saying it does here, especially w/ Dallas averaging 108.4 PPG at American Airlines Center. I've said it before, but I'll restate it here - I'm just not afraid of playing the Mavs even though they are without PG Rajon Rondo. Most of their numbers had actually declined since bringing Rondo into the fold. Keep in mind this team led by as many as 22 vs. Golden State Wednesday (on the road!) and the following night didn't even have Dirk Nowitzki in the lineup when they blew out Sacramento. So what we have here is a Mavs team that's held a double digit lead in each of their last five games. Again, even w/ the decline of "homecourt advantage" in today's NBA, this is a good value. 10* Dallas |
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02-07-15 | Buffalo v. Akron -2.5 | Top | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
10* Akron (7:00 ET): This is a big game in the MAC East as Akron hosts Buffalo. These are two of the four teams currently tied for the division lead (6-3 conference records) coming into Saturday. The overall records are quite similar between these two as well as Bowling Green and Kent State. Having already swept BG, Akron could have a real inside track to winning the division if they were to prevail here (and provided they at least split w/ rival Kent State). Fortunately, tonight's game is in their gym where they've lost only once all season, that being back in December by a single point to Middle Tennessee. Off a one-point loss at Ohio on Wednesday, I'll look for the Zips to bounce back and take care of business. Buffalo has won three straight, the most recent game being an 82-78 victory at Ball State as six-point favorites. While they won the game, the Bulls did drop to 1-5 ATS L6 by not covering. Previously, they had lost three straight on the road. It will clearly be a challenge tonight against an Akron team that's 11-1 at the JAR, thanks to allowing just 58.1 points per game. All three times Buffalo has been a road dog of three points or less this season, they have both lost and failed to cover. Against Ball State Wednesday, the Bulls were able to get to the free throw line alot considering they were the road team. Also, remember that Ball State is a pretty bad team that's now on a seven-game losing streak. Akron has played a number of close games recently, with the last two both decided by a single point, one in their favor and the other not. They actually led Ohio by 10 at halftime, in Athens, Wednesday before things took a dramatic swing in the final 20 minutes. The Zips ended up trailing by ten themselves w/ just over two minutes to go before nearly pulling off what would have been a nice come from behind win. Incredibly, four of Akron's last five games have been decided by four points or less. But what we also know is they are 2-0 ATS off their previous two conference losses, blowing out Bowling Green and winning at Western Michigan. Make it 3 for 3 after tonight. 10* Akron |
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02-07-15 | Indiana State v. Loyola-Chicago -2 | Top | 79-65 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
10* Loyola IL (4:00 ET): Everyone besides Wichita State and Northern Iowa is stuck "playing for third place" in the Missouri Valley and looking at Loyola's upcoming schedule, they have a good chance at moving up the standings. They'll host Southern Illinois before traveling to Bradley next week, and note those are the two last place teams in the conference. But first they'll need to take care of business against Indiana State here at home. After losing five in a row, most of them close, the Ramblers finally got back into the win column w/ a 53-50 win at Missouri State Wednesday. The Indiana State team they'll host here is in what we call a "sandwich spot" as they are off a loss to Northern Iowa and host Wichita State on Wednesday. This has the look of a game that will not have the visiting Sycamores' full attention, thus I'll lay the small number. These teams met not that long ago (January 24th) in Terre Haute and it was Indiana State coming away w/ the 72-61 win as a five-point choice at the betting window. One key takeaway for that game is that Loyola actually finished w/ 13 offensive rebounds, leading to a 16-5 edge in second chance points. I don't see ISU replicating its hot shooting (53.3 percent overall including 12-23 from three-point range) from that first matchup as road games have largely been an adventure this season for the Syacamores. They've lost their last three and this is a team that shoots just 42.7 percent for the year. Loyola, who has covered three straight, is holding teams to an average of 59.5 PPG for the year, including 57.5 PPG here at home. Since allowing Indiana State to scored 72 pts, the Ramblers have held their previous three opponents all below their scoring averages. They've allowed just 98 points total the L2 games and holding a team to just 19 points in the first half, on the road, like they did vs. Missouri State is pretty impressive. After holding their previous opponent to 60 points or less, the Ramblers are a strong 8-2 ATS this season. 10* Loyola IL |
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02-07-15 | South Carolina v. Vanderbilt -3 | Top | 50-65 | Win | 101 | 16 h 6 m | Show |
8* Vanderbilt (4:00 ET): It's atypical that I would play a team off a SU dog win like the one Vandy is off here, but I'm going to make an exception as they get to play host to South Carolina. The Commies beat Florida on Tuesday, 67-61 as 2.5-point home dogs. So, it wasn't exactly the biggest upset of all time, nor something too likely to cause any kind of major letdown. They also get a break in the sense that the opponent is pretty weak. South Carolina has gone just 2-7 SU/1-8 ATS in SEC play and has lost five of its last six as well. They're tied w/ Vandy in the conference standings, ahead of only Missouri, but the Commodores have the homecourt edge and they are the play here laying only a small number. The Gamecocks are actually 12-4 against the spread when visiting Memorial Gymnasium, dating all the way back to '97. But this will be also be their first visit since 2013 when they were beaten 72-64 as 8.5-point dogs. Things did not look good for Frank Martin's team on Tuesday when they were blown out, 75-55, at Arkansas. For the game, the team shot below 30 percent and turned it over 20 times. They missed 25 of 33 shot attempts in the second half as things got out of hand. Two players, Demetrius Henry and Justin McKie, are in danger of missing a fourth consecutive game due to concussion protocol. South Carolina is averaging just 62.9 PPG away from home, a big reason why they're just 3-6 straight up in such games. They've lost all four SEC road games. Vanderbilt, despite its poor record, is the top shooting team in the league at 46.9% overall. They also lead the SEC in three-point shooting performance at 37.1 percent. That kind of shooting, coupled w/ their unique home court edge, should provide enough of a difference for the Commies to cover easily here. They never trailed against a good Florida team Tuesday and that's despite shooting the ball worse than usual. The key was getting to the free throw line and crashing the boards and if they can outwork Florida in those departments, they can do the same to South Carolina. 8* Vanderbilt |
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02-07-15 | Creighton v. St. John's -7 | Top | 66-84 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
8* St. John's (12:00 ET): With seven losses in its last 10 games, St. John's has gone from Top 15 in the country to (right now) likely out of the NCAA Tournament altogether. However, like the team I played last night (George Washington), the Red Storm remain on the cusp of the field of 68 (Joe Lunardi currently has them in his "first four out" category). In the interest of full disclosure, I did play against St. John's earlier this week, but that was when they paid a visit to streaking Butler, now a ranked team themselves, who has won six of its last seven. Today, the opponent is Creighton, who is in last place in the Big East and having its worst season in years. GW have failed to come through last night (barely), but I look for the Johnnie's to win this one - big. Flagarant fouls, lack of composure and poor effort were the main reasons for Tuesday's 85-62 loss at Butler. The final margin was the result of two runs, one at the start and one at the end of the game. St. John's started the game in an 8-0 hole and then Butler would also go on to score the final 15 points. On their 22 made field goals, St. John's had just five assists while shooting only 37.3 percent from the field. (Butler shot 56.4%). After such an embarrassing performance, naturally you would expect some kind of bounce back here. Fortunately, the Red Storm did cover after the only other time they allowed 80+ points this season, that being a blowout loss to Villanova, from which they recovered to defeat Providence on the road, 83-70 as three-point dogs. Fortunately, this game is at home where the Johnnies are 8-3 SU and holding teams to just 62.4 points per game. Meanwhile, this has not been a good year for Creighton, which was to be expected after the graduation of Doug McDermott. After enduring the worst losing skid in the history of the program last month (nine games), the Blue Jays have won two of three, including a real shocker at Xavier on Wednesday in overtime (won 79-72 as 13.5-pt pups). But you know how I often like to play AGAINST teams coming off big upsets and that's the situation Creighton finds itself in here. I doubt we'll be seeing five players in double figures again here for the Blue Jays. BTW, St. John's has legit revenge for a three-point road loss 11 days ago. 8* St. John's |
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02-06-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Houston Rockets -6 | Top | 111-117 | Push | 0 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:05 ET): Milwaukee has been lethal in the underdog role this season, going 22-9 against the spread, which is the driving force behind the them currently having the league's best record at the betting window overall (33-15-1 ATS). They failed to cover in their last game, but that was as a large favorite against the Lakers, a game that they rallied back to win in overtime. They're back in their more customary role of taking points tonight, but I'm "Bucking the trend" as they'll have to deal w/ a Rockets team that's won five of six, including a 101-90 decision here at home over Chicago Wednesday night. They are 4-1 SU w/out Dwight Howard and have won seven of their last eight home games. Lay the points. Surprisingly, there has been no ill-effects on the defensive end for the Rockets w/out Howard as opponents have averaged just 94.4 points per game in the five games he has missed. That's actually four points LESS than their overall season average. The Rockets won 117-103 in Milwaukee back in November and have beaten them 12 of the last 14 meetings here in Houston. They shot better than 50% in November and I anticipate they'll again have too much offensively for the Bucks to handle tonight. 8* Houston |
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02-06-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Indiana Pacers +6.5 | Top | 99-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
8* Indiana (7:05 ET): The Cavs are on quite the roll right now (12 straight wins & counting), and I backed them last night as they destroyed the Clippers at home. The game was not as close as the 105-94 final score indicates (Cleveland led by as many as 32), but following such an impressive performance I feel that Lebron and company may be in store for a bit of a letdown tonight as, unrested, they must visit Indiana. The Pacers are coming off a 114-109 win over Detroit here at home Wednesday and continue to be a bit tougher of an "out" than you might think. They've been outscored, on average, by less than two points per game this year, so taking the points seems wise in this situation. I'm not going to be able to make a very strong case for going against Cleveland here other than that they are in a letdown spot. But then again, the last two times they found themselves playing w/out rest, they did struggle some. Once was against Portland, when they were w/out Lebron and needed a career high 55 points from Kyrie Irving. The other came several days later in Minnesota as they won 106-90, but needed to outscore the lowly T'wolves 30-11 in the fourth quarter. The bulk of the Cavs' win streak has come at home, where they've played eight of their last 10 games. The only other road game besides Minnesota was in Detroit and they (just barely) failed to cover there. Indiana, meanwhile, has only won three times in its last 12 games. But as a dog, they're a more than respectable 16-12 ATS this season. They've also beaten Cleveland eight straight times here at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, though most of those wins came when Lebron was in Miami. Still, the Pacers do have PG George Hill back and he played very well on Wednesday, registering a season-high in points (20) in his first action since January 23rd. I expect this game to be a very close call w/ the Pacers having a very decent chance at pulling the upset. 8* Indiana |
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02-06-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Orlando Magic -3 | Top | 97-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
8* Orlando (7:05 ET): As had been widely speculated on for some time, the Magic made Jacque Vaughn disappear, firing the now former HC yday. The move came on the heels of the team's 10th straight loss (longest active losing streak in the league), which took place Wednesday in San Antonio. In that game, as well as in a road loss at Oklahoma City two days prior, Orlando had stayed competitive, covering the spread both times. I suppose it's fair to say that Vaughn, a 1st time head coach, was in a really tough situation w/ such a bad roster. Ironically, his replacement (on an interim basis), James Borrego, probably couldn't have asked for a better matchup for his debut. The Magic are actually favored tonight, and with a coaching change usually comes a temporary boost in play, so I'll lay the points in this battle of bottom five teams. The Lakers aren't doing much better than Orlando right now. They've dropped 11 of 12 and just fell in overtime at Milwaukee, 113-105. As you know, Kobe Bryant is out for the season, and while I felt his presence was doing more harm than good, that doesn't necessarily mean the Lakers are better off without him. The team has dropped nine in a row away from home and is allowing 107.4 points per game this season. While Los Angeles has been fairly respectable at the betting window this year, that's because they're usually catching a lot of points from the linesmakers. Here, that's not the case, which bears mentioning because they are only 9-35 SU as dogs. Forward Jordan Hill is out and won't return until after the All-Star Break. The Magic not only have the motivation of trying to look good for their interim HC, but also they'll be looking to avenge last month's 101-84 loss at Staples Center. The Lakers have only won one time since. It should be noted that Bryant did not play in that first meeting, but it's unlikely that the Lakers will be receiving a repeat performance from rookie Tarik Black, who went for career highs of 14 points and nine rebounds that game. In fact, Black is hardly seeing any playing time at all these days. Orlando may only be 2-5 ATS as a favorite, but both covers came as a home favorite of three points or less. 8* Orlando |
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02-06-15 | Dayton v. George Washington -2.5 | Top | 64-65 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
10* George Washington (7:00 ET): This is a big game for the Colonials, who according to Joe Lunardi are one of the "first four out" of the NCAA Tournament field. Beating a Dayton team currently projected in the field of 68 would do wonders for GW's cause and getting this game at home has me inclined to lay the short number. George Washington is coming off a pair of road losses, one that I was on (72-48 at VCU), then last Saturday at Rhode Island, 59-55 as 2.5-point pups. While the Colonials clearly aren't coming into this game in "top form," one needs to remember that prior to a 101-77 blowout of lowly Fordham on Sunday, Dayton had lost two of three w/ the only victory coming by a small margin (three points) at home against Richmond. The Flyers have dropped their last two road games, at Davidson & UMass. Again, lay the points. Despite a poor 1st half on Saturday, GW was actually able to rally to take the lead w/ just over five minutes to go. In retrospect, it's maybe a game that the Colonials should have won as they held Rhode Island to just 37.3% shooting from the floor, including 1 of 19 on three-point attempts. The difference was the Rams going 20 of 22 from the free throw line, many of those coming down the stretch, while GW was a paltry 9 for 17 from the charity stripe. We can expect more solid defense from the Colonials tonight as they are holding teams to an average of just 59.9 points per game this season, which is a big reason they are also a perfect 9-0 SU at home. Their average margin of victory here at the Charles E. Smith Center is just over 18 points per game. Meanwhile, Dayton has played a pretty easy schedule to this point. As I mentioned before, you can't read too much into the blowout win over Fordham because Fordham shouldn't even be in the Atlantic 10. The Flyers have not beaten a single ranked team all season and to be honest, I'm not even sure what qualifies as their "best win." A two-point win over Texas A&M back in November? Or a four-point win over Ole Miss right before the New Year? Four of their six wins over the RPI Top 100 have been by four points or less, and I'm not putting a ton of stock into this team's record. At 1-3 SU/ATS as an underdog already this season, look for Dayton to struggle to score tonight. 10* George Washington |
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02-05-15 | Phoenix Suns v. Portland Trail Blazers -4.5 | Top | 87-108 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
10* Portland (10:35 ET): The Blazers, who have been one of the league's top teams most of the year and in my opinion still a lock to win the Northwest Division, have stumbled a bit lately. They're 0-4 ATS their last four games and 2-9 ATS their L11. After returning home from a three-game East Coast trip (went 0-3 SU/ATS), they pulled out a one-point win over Utah here at home Tuesday night. Though it was closer than expected, this Portland team is now 21-5 SU at home and I feel can cover this small number against the all of a sudden slumping Suns, who have struggled to win games away from home. To get back on track, Portland needs Damian Lillard to get back on track. Widely considered to be an All-Star Game "snub," Lillard has struggled since the news broke he wouldn't be competing in New York City later this month. Lillard did lead the team in scoring Tuesday w/ 25 pts, but is now just 20 percent from three-point range over the L10 games. However, there's nothing wrong w/ LaMarcus Aldridge, who will be an All-Star. He's turned in four consecutive double-doubles, averaging 28.8 PPG and 11.5 RPG. Also, Robin Lopez is back in the lineup and that should help the Blazers regain their lost rebounding edge. This team had struggled on the glass in the games that Lopez had missed, but still ranks 3rd in the league in # of rebounds per game, thanks in large part to Lopez. Phoenix has lost its last three road games as well as five of its last seven. They've been playing at home a majority of the time over the last month or so. The one road game they've played since January 12th resulted in a 19-point loss at Golden State last Saturday. I took them as a home dog Monday vs. Memphis and while they covered, they still lost the game 102-101. I was surprised to learn that Phoenix is 6-2 SU/7-1 ATS the last eight meetings w/ Portland, so I think things are due to swing "the other way" tonight and the home team wins big. 10* Portland |
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02-05-15 | Washington State v. Oregon State -9 | Top | 50-55 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
8* Oregon State (10:00 ET): Though now may not be the best time to say it, Wayne Tinkle has done one of the better turnaround jobs in the country this season at Oregon State. Removed from the throes of the Craig Robinson (Barack Obama's brother in law!) era, the Beavers are 14-7 SU and in the top half of the Pac 12 currently. That's after being blown out in their last two games, both on the road, as well. Last Friday at Arizona figured to not go very well as it was a revenge game for the Wildcats, whom OSU had beaten here in Corvallis earlier in the year. The Beavers have been a much different team at home all season long (12-0!) and I expect them to roll tonight against a bad Washington State team that's coming off a SU dog win. Prior to upsetting Stanford, 89-88 as nine-point dogs in Pullman Saturday night, Wazzu had lost four in a row while also going 0-4 against the spread. Oregon State has only two road wins all year and one of them came at the expense of these Cougars, 62-47, back on January 17th. That started the four-game losing streak for Washington State and it should be pointed out that in their previous two road games, they were beaten by a combined 54 points. They have four league wins this season. All have been by three points or less or in overtime. This is a huge letdown spot after beating Stanford, a game where the Cougars sank 30 free throws and shot 60 percent in the second half, numbers that I'd say will be almost impossible to duplicate here. As for Oregon State, their offensive numbers aren't great, but their defensive numbers are as visiting teams are averaging just 53 points per game here in Corvallis. Again, they're unbeaten this season at Gill Coliseum, beating not only Arizona, but UCLA, Depaul and UC Santa Barbara as well. Even more impressive is that they are 10-1 ATS at home and if you think that's solely because they've been undervalued, take note of the Beavers' 7-1 ATS mark when favored so far this season. It's difficult to imagine things could possibly be any worse than they were vs. Arizona and the team is 2-0 ATS when playing w/ 5+ days rest. Meanwhile, Washington State is 0-6 ATS this year after giving up 80+ pts their last game. 8* Oregon State |
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02-05-15 | Appalachian State v. Louisiana-Lafayette -12 | Top | 66-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
10* Louisiana Lafayette (8:15 ET): Though the Ragin Cajuns have lost five of their last seven games, it's difficult to imagine visiting Appalachian State staying with them tonight in the the Cajundome. Yes, the pointspread seems high for two teams that are separated by just one-half game in the Sun Belt standings. But App State is coming off a horrible-looking 83-46 loss at Georgia Southern in their last game and averages just 63.4 points per game. ULL has been a strong home team this year, particularly when it comes to putting the ball in the basket as they average 89.3 PPG. Overall, they rank in the top 15 nationally in scoring. Lay the points. These teams already met once this year and it was Louisiana Lafayette dominating in an 80-64 road win. It was a milestone win for HC Bob Martin as it was his 300th career victory at the D-I level. The game was never really that close as the Ragin Cajuns led by 14 at halftime and by as many as 20 in the second half. They shot 51.7 percent compared to just 39.1 percent for the Mountaineers and we should expect something similar here as those numbers are right in line w/ how the two shoot at home and on the road respectively. Lafayette has scored 80 or more points 11 times in its last 15 games, none of which have gone beyond regulation, while App State has scored that many in a game just twice all season and one of those came in a loss where they allowed 105 points to South Alabama. The loss to Georgia Southern was an ugly one for the Mountaineers as they shot a woeful 28.8 percent for the game, missing 17 of 19 three-pointers. Not a single player on the team reached double figures in scoring. They had just 16 points at halftime. Meanwhile, ULL didn't even hit its season average in points Saturday vs. Texas State, yet still won comfortably. I realize that the underdog has had a full week off to prepare here, but that alone will not be enough. 10* Louisiana Lafayette |
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02-05-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 | Top | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:05 ET): This shapes up as a great matchup on paper. However, I feel the deciding factor is that the game is taking place in Cleveland. Not that the Cavs have enjoyed any kind of special homecourt edge this year, but as I've talked about before, when the Clippers started this season-long eight game trip, no team in the league had played fewer road games. They're 1-3 ATS on the trip so far, ironically the one win coming when they were underdogs, but after a 102-100 loss at Brooklyn Monday night, they dropped to just 13-9 SU away from home this season (9-13 ATS). With the Cavs riding an 11-game win streak, they are obviously in peak form and present a tremendous challenge to the Clippers. Lay the points. Monday in Brooklyn saw the Clips blow a nine-point lead in the final 90 seconds. That's tough to do, but when you miss 17 of 25 free throws in a game, it's certainly possible. The one thing that I see as "sticking out" when it comes to LA's struggles on the road is that they allow 101.4 points per game. You won't win a ton of games doing that and it's a big reason why the team is just 3-7 ATS its last 10. Remember that they lost to Cleveland last month, at home, 126-121. That was at the start of Cleveland's win streak, which has seen them take care of business here at Quicken Loans Arena. They are 6-1 ATS L7 home games w/ Monday's 97-84 win over Philadelphia being the lone non-cover because they were caught laying 17 points. But all seven wins have come by 10 points or more and I expect the home team to come up big once again in the national TV game. 8* Cleveland |
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02-05-15 | Washington Wizards v. Charlotte Hornets -1.5 | Top | 87-94 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): This is a tough spot for Washington, who has now failed to cover eight in a row following last night's 105-96 loss at Atlanta. That was also the Wizards' fourth consecutive straight up loss as well. Having to play the Hawks in the middle of this home and home w/ another division rival was tough enough, but coming up short last night is going to make it even harder on the Wiz. For Charlotte, who won 92-88 (as 7.5-pt dogs) in D.C back on Monday, they've been waiting patiently for the rematch. Remember, the Hornets have won 11 of their last 14 games overall and the only two teams to beat them so far in 2015 are Cleveland and San Antonio. I was on the Wizards last night. One would have thought that the Hawks would be due to start "giving some back" after having their 19-game win streak snapped. Plus, they (meaning Atlanta) had what appeared to be a lookahead to a game w/ Golden State on Friday. But, Washington failed to take advantage, getting off to a slow start and never really threatened to take the game outright. They are now 2-8 ATS vs. the rest of the division, including the loss to the Hornets earlier this week, and are also 2-8 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss. If that's not bad enough, John Wall hurt his ankle last night. The key to the Hornets' resurgence has been their play on defense, which is reminiscent of the squad that made the playoffs a year ago. Since the 1st of the year, Charlotte leads the league in scoring defense at 89.4 points per game w/ opponents shooting just 39.7 percent from the field. Obviously, Washington was held right in line w/ those numbers on Monday and even more interesting is that the Hornets have beaten the Wizards four straight times (dating back to LY) while holding them to an average of 88.8 PPG. Wall and Bradley Beal have really struggled for Washington in those L4 matchups, averaging less than 30 points combined. Meanwhile, Charlotte is 5-1 SU w/out Kemba Walker and his replacement in the starting lineup, Brian Roberts, actually led the team in scoring w/ 18 points Monday night. 8* Charlotte. |
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02-05-15 | Chattanooga v. Furman +4.5 | Top | 74-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
8* Furman (7:00 ET): We're going to the Southern Conference for this one as Furman hosts Chattanooga. Despite the respective records coming into this matchup, I like the home team getting points. Chattanooga has a losing record away from home this year (3-6 straight up) and a good number of their recent wins have come by slight margins. Furman, who had won three of four before losing at Samford on Saturday, is 6-3 SU at home and playing w/ legit revenge from a 12-point loss at Chattanooga back on January 3rd. Take the points in this one. Chattanooga has won all four matchups with Furman the last three seasons, none by a margin fewer than nine points. So while history may not be on Furman's side here, I think that the situation is. Saturday at Samford, a terrible start (fell behind 22-4!) doomed them, even though the Paladins were able to battle back and tie the game at halftime. They held the Bulldogs below 40 percent shooting for the game and we should expect another strong defensive performance here considering that as the home team, they are limiting opponents to just 60.6 points per game on 40.1 percent shooting. Chattanooga allowed its last opponent to shoot the ball very well, as The Citadel made nearly 59 percent of its attempts for the game! This will be the first of three consecutive road games for the Mocs, a trip which ends w/ a showdown at first place Wofford. Having lost their previous road game, at Mercer, it's tough to like Chattanooga laying points in this situation as four of their last six wins have been by six points or less. 8* Furman |
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02-04-15 | Dallas Mavericks +9.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 114-128 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
10* Dallas (10:35 ET): So I've picked a tough group of teams to go against tonight, none more so than the Warriors, who won again last night, defeating Sacramento 121-96 as 10-point road favorites. I don't care how many games Atlanta won in a row, Golden State is clearly the best team in the league, but tonight they are laying a monster number against a top five opponent and I think the spread is just too high. Dallas has won three straight and being without Rajon Rondo could be a blessing in disguise. The Mavs obviously aren't going to want to be blown out on national TV (this is a ESPN game) and I think they have the horses necessary to keep pace w/ Golden State considering the Warriors are playing w/out rest. Take the points. A case could actually be made that the Mavs got WORSE after acquiring Rondo from Boston. Going into Friday's game in Miami, Rondo as averaging just 6.8 PPG since January 4th and was held scoreless in the team's previous game. The Mavs' win percentage with him was nearly .100 points lower than without him. Not only were they averaging seven points per game less w/ Rondo, but they are also averaging a fewer number of assists! Part of the issue was Rondo's absolutely unforgivable free throw shooting. The team got back to 100 pts Monday night vs. Minnesota as Monta Ellis continued his streak of strong performances. If you were wondering "is this the most points Dallas has gotten in any game this season," well, the answer is yes. The previous high was just five points for what was the second game of back to backs in Denver. The Warriors, who could perhaps close as double-digit favorites for a seventh consecutive game, did fail to cover three straight before routing both Phoenix and Sacramento. They won 105-98 earlier this year in Dallas, a game where the pointspread hovered around a pick em. This just seems like too many points to lay against a top five opponent, even at home. 10* Dallas |
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02-04-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Utah Jazz +6.5 | Top | 100-90 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
8* Utah (9:05 ET): While the Jazz are by no means a "good" team yet, they have definitely improved from the last two years. We'll find out just how improved they are tonight as they welcome in the red hot Memphis Grizzlies, winners of seven straight. But remember, this is a Jazz team that just beat Golden State here in Salt Lake City last week. Utah is 5-1 ATS its last six overall and while they did lose just last night in Portland, it was only by a single point as 8.5-point pups. Normally, I might shy away from a team playing in the second game of back to backs, but note that the Jazz had three days off before last night's game. Also, Memphis is off a one-point victory of its own Monday in Phoenix. Too many points to lay here. These teams played right before XMas (only meeting this season) in Memphis, and you'll be surprised to learn that it was Utah coming away w/ the 97-91 win (as eight-point dogs). Fast forward to tonight and the line is almost identical despite the game being played in Utah. The Grizzlies have not experienced much success here in Salt Lake City through the years, losing 27 of 35 games and that's with a wins in two of the past three visits. The key here for the Jazz will be holding Memphis under 100 pts (0-18 SU when allowing 100+ this year). Fortunately, the Grizz average "only" 98.7 PPG away from home. Utah has won five of its last seven games when playing w/out rest. I had the correct side and total play in Memphis' game vs. Phoenix Monday, taking the points and the Under. In both situations, it was close. But it should be noted that they trailed by seven with 3:31 to go in the game. The Grizzlies are a pedestrian 11-11 ATS on the road this year and are only 8-12 ATS vs. teams w/ losing records. This is a pretty big number to lay on the road, no matter the matchup, and the Jazz have covered each of the last four times they've been getting at least 6.5 points from the linesmakers. 8* Utah |
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02-04-15 | Washington Wizards +6 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 96-105 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:35 ET): This will be the first time since December 27th that Atlanta will be coming in off a loss. Back then, they responded w/ a 90-85 win in the second game of a home and home w/ Milwaukee. They'd go on to win 19 in a row and are an amazing 32-3 SU their last 35 games overall. But now, it's time they started to "give some back." Safe to say I may very well be "targeting" the Hawks as a "go-against" team for the foreseeable future. That includes tonight when they host Washington. Even before losing to New Orleans on Monday, there had been signs of the Hawks' slipping as they're now only 1-4 ATS their last five games. The Wizards may not have Anthony Davis on their roster, but they are a desperate team playing w/ double revenge, so I'm taking the points. Washington comes into this game on a three-game losing streak and has failed to cover seven in a row. That sounds worse than it actually is considering their last five SU losses have all been by eight points or fewer. They were dogs only one time in the L7 games and while that's a role that's not really treated them well this season, they've reached a real desperation point now facing their first four-game losing streak all year. They also have some major revenge on their minds for a 31-point loss the last time they visited this building, a game where they actually shot slightly better than the Hawks for the game, but were undone by making 11 less three-point attempts. I would not be surprised to see Atlanta somewhat "plateau" over the course of the second half of the season. While they rank 6th in points and 3rd in assists, they are just 27th in rebounds per game, so they can be exploited there and that's what we saw against New Orleans when they really had no answer for Anthony Davis. It will be interesting to see how the Hawks perform now that they've lost a game and looking at tonight specifically they're in a bit of a letdown/lookahead spot as they'll be hosting Golden State Friday night in a matchup of the best teams from the two respective conferences. 8* Washington |
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02-04-15 | Towson v. Northeastern -8.5 | Top | 62-69 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
10* Northeastern (7:00 ET): The Colonial isn't what it used to be, but one of the teams in contention to win the regular season crown this year is Northeastern, who is coming off a hot shooting performance in an 80-61 over Elon Saturday. That snapped a two-game losing streak (team had lost three of four as well) and now the Huskies return home to face Towson, who has surprisingly won three of four straight up while going 4-0 ATS. This should be a game where the home team rolls as Towson is averaging just 62 points per game away from home while N'eastern is at 74.6 PPG at home. Towson was a 12.5-pt dog when they won at Hofstra Saturday, so they're in letdown mode here and I'll lay the points. Going into Saturday, Northeastern found itself on its first losing streak of the entire season. But they shot 68 percent in the second half vs. Elon and nearly 60 percent for the entire game. Their biggest lead was 27 points as it was their second straight home game where they won by a large margin. Back on January 22nd, they clobbered James Madison here at Matthews Arena, 82-59, laying only seven points. While the Huskies haven't exactly been the most reliable bunch off a strong performance, this is a team that you can typically count on to shoot the ball well (50.2% in conf play) and they've won six of eight at home. Towson is shooting just 40% on the road this year. The Tigers, who have a losing record overall and vs. the CAA, saw five players score in double figures Saturday in what was probably their best performance of the season. They shot 57.8 percent at Hofstra and scored 50 pts in the second half en route to their highest point total against any D-I opponent this season. Remember though, before winning three of four, the Tigers had dropped 10 of 11 games. That includes a three-point loss at home to Northeastern 52-49 back on January 10th where they just barely covered as four-point dogs. So there's a little bit of value here w/ the change in venue (number should be double digits) and w/ that first meeting being one of Towson's worst offensive performances of the season, I see them getting blown out here. 10* Northeastern |
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02-04-15 | Ohio State -2.5 v. Purdue | Top | 58-60 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
8* Ohio State (6:30 ET): The Buckeyes destroyed Maryland last Thursday, 80-56 in Columbus, for their third straight win. That leaves them in a four-way tie for second in the Big 10 as they head to West Lafayette tonight to take on a Purdue team that's also on a three-game win streak. The Boilermakers are also among those tied for second place in the conference. However, I don't really view these teams as being that even. Ohio State's ranking is justified while Purdue not being in the Top 25 is similarly correct. OSU has won six straight over Purdue and is 11-3 ATS against them the L14 matchups. Lay the points. Arguably, Ohio State's "best" two wins of the year have come in the L2 games as they defeated Indiana and Maryland at home by a combined 36 points. Both opponents were ranked at the time of victory. Against the Hoosiers, the Buckeyes shot a preposterous 62.3 percent from the field, for the game. Then against Maryland, defense was the story. The Terps shot just 30.5% overall and finished with only 16 points in the paint as almost every shot was contested. But the story remains Ohio State's offense as they rank 16th nationally in points per game (80.0) and 3rd in field goal percentage (50.7%). Road games have been a bit of an adventure so far (2-4 SU incl loss to North Carolina at a neutral site) w/ both wins coming by exactly two points. But this looks like an easier task compared to previous trips. Purdue has beaten two straight ranked opponents here at Mackey Arena, Iowa and Indiana. They also beat Northwestern Saturday on the road, thanks to some unusually good free throw shooting. A team that ranks 11th (out of 14) in the conference from the line made 24 of 32, which is a high number of attempts for being the visitors. This is a team that had just five Big 10 victories a year ago, but while they're clearly improved, I don't see them as being at Ohio State's level. Matt Painter's team is 7-2 ATS its last nine, in games where the line was generally three points or less, but it catches up w/ them here. 8* Ohio State |
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02-03-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Sacramento Kings +10 | Top | 121-96 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
\ 8* Sacramento (10:05 ET): Golden State has begun to slow down from the furious pace they've been on much of the season. They lost two in a row last week, to Chicago and Utah, giving up 110+ pts both times. Saturday at home vs. Phoenix, the final score says they won by 19, but it was a close game at halftime w/ them leading by only one. This will be the sixth consecutive game where they're laying double digits, so the oddsmakers are starting to catch up and, to me, that means that their 67.4% covering rate is bound to start going down because it's hard to keep covering spreads as large as these, especially on the road. Take the points w/ Sacramento. This is a big revenge spot for the Kings, who were humiliated by Klay Thompson in the last meeting as the Warriors' sharp shooter went for 52 points, including a history-making 37 point third quarter. It wound up being a 25-point win for Golden State, but it was only a five-point game at half. In fact, Sacramento has been blown out all three times they've played this year, but it's interesting that they were only 4.5-point dogs in the first meeting here at home. A key here is that the Warriors have lost five of their last seven on the road where they allow 101.2 PPG. The Kings snapped an eight-game losing streak with a 99-94 win at Indiana on Saturday. They led by 13 after the first quarter and by as many as 23. The fact their bench was outscored 56-11 did not matter. This is just too many points to be laying on the road. 8* Sacramento |
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02-03-15 | Virginia Tech v. Syracuse -10.5 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
8* Syracuse (9:00 ET): This is not the typical Syracuse team we're used to seeing. They're not a NCAA Tournament team right now and have dropped three of their last four games. The last loss came last Monday, at North Carolina, 93-83. Despite the Tar Heels shooting ridiculously well (55.4 percent for the game!), the Orange were able to stay close (led at halftime) by forcing 20 turnovers. In terms of opponent, they drop in class tonight to face Virginia Tech, who has lost eight of nine w/ the lone win coming in OT. While Syracuse has struggled recently, they had won seven straight before this 1-3 SU stretch and this looks like a bounce back spot to me. Lay the points. Virginia Tech has played better of late, which is evident by their 6-2 ATS record the L8 games. They've covered three straight, all games by decided by exactly a three-point margin. One of those was a win over Pitt in OT. They also took Virginia down to the wire. But like Northwestern, I see them as likely to be blown out here. On the road, they have no wins and averaged 62.7 points per game. This is the second meeting of the year between these teams. It was a two-point game in Blacksburg, so Syracuse didn't cover, but there's some value here as the line for that first game was 9.5 and it's roughly the same number here, even though we're now at the Carrier Dome where the Orange have gone 11-2 straight up. Remember that the Hokies' leading rebounder Joey Van Zegeren has left the team as well. 8* Syracuse |
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02-03-15 | Miami Heat v. Detroit Pistons -4 | Top | 91-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
10* Detroit (7:35 ET): I had Miami Sunday as they went to Boston and won outright 83-75 as 3.5-pt dogs. That's a pretty typical Heat score these days as they rank 29th (2nd worst) in the league in points scored (92.4) and 1st in points allowed (95.9). However, the key here is the situation they find themselves in tonight, that being off a SU dog win. They are 1-10 SU/0-10-1 ATS in this situation this year, plus 1-8 SU/0-8-1 ATS after holding their previous opponent to 85 pts or less. That's unspeakably bad and remember they lost outright at home to Milwaukee last Tuesday after winning the previous Sunday (as dogs) in Chicago. Lay the points here w/ Detroit. The Pistons got back on track Saturday w/ a 114-101 win here at home over Houston. It was the team's first win since losing PG Brandon Jennings for the season and I think a real confidence builder. Stan Van Gundy's team is only three games out of the playoff position despite the horrible start and the fact they'd lost four in a row before the Houston win. Since waiving Josh Smith on December 22nd, Detroit actually has the 8th best overall win percentage in the league. Every single stat on the offensive end has improved dramatically during this time. They shot 50 percent against a Rockets team that's usually pretty good defensively. The Heat are not only second to last in the league in points scored, but they're also last in rebounding and second to last in assists. Even though I was glad to take them getting points against a struggling Boston team Sunday afternoon, this is not a great team by any means. Remember that while Luol Deng could be back here, the team is still w/out Dwyane Wade. Chris Bosh has not played well of late, scoring just 30 combined points the L2 games on 11 of 37 shooting. The team has shot just 41.8 percent over the course of its last six games. Hassan Whiteside has been a revelation, but is not enough to consistently carry this team, especially on the road. 10* Detroit |
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02-03-15 | Northwestern v. Nebraska -5 | Top | 60-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
8* Nebraska (7:30 ET): Northwestern, who is not good team, has somehow managed to go 6-0 ATS this season on the road. That includes 4 for 4 against Big 10 opponents, though in three of those games they were getting more points than they are here tonight. Overall though, the Wildcats have lost seven straight. While all but two of those losses have come by seven points or fewer (three by 2 pts or less!), I feel they are ripe to be blown out tonight. Nebraska is returning home off B2B losses at Michigan and Minnesota, thus will be in an angry mood here. The Cornhuskers are 9-3 SU in Lincoln this year and the fact N'western is averaging only 58.9 PPG on the road is an ominous sign. Nebraska has to be glad to be back home. They've lost all four Big 10 road games by double digits. Their last two wins at home were both close, by a total of five points. In the losses to Michigan and Minnesota, they were held below 45 points both times. They shot horribly in both games, 37% or below each time. Here at home, the team shoots a more respectable 44.4 percent (67.9 percent). Leading scorer Terran Petteway took only eight shot attempts at Minnesota, far too few, and he's scored 17 pts total in the two road losses. This after scoring 32 in the last home game. A big game from Petteway is what the Huskers need tonight and what I'm expecting. 8* Nebraska |
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02-03-15 | St. John's v. Butler -5.5 | Top | 62-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
8* Butler (7:00 ET): Of the two teams here, Butler is the one whose NCAA Tournament hopes are in the better shape. That's because the Bulldogs have won five of six, including three straight. They have a top 20 RPI and strength of schedule, plus beat North Carolina on a neutral floor earlier in the year. Here, they are coming off an overtime win at Marquette Saturday where they were able to overcome poor shooting and a 10-point deficit in the final 4:20. This is the first time since moving to the Big East that Butler has won three straight league games, but I like their chances at making it four in a row tonight at the expense of struggling St. John's here at home. The Red Storm have won only three of their past nine games, two of those coming against the same team (Providence). They lost by four, at home, to Butler back on January 3rd. Lay the points here. Butler has been dominant at home this season, going 10-1 w/ an average margin of victory of 20.5 points per game. Visitors are averaging 54.9 PPG. It is somewhat ironic that the Bulldogs' lone home defeat this year came against a Providence team that's lost to St. John's twice. But the Red Storm have lost 13 of 14 games to teams ranked in the Top 25, including an 0-3 record this season. Butler was not ranked the first time these two squads matched up (St. John's was #15!), but the difference there was the Bulldogs' Kellen Dunham scoring a season-high 28 points as neither team got a single point from its bench. When looking at the rankings then and now, what a difference a month makes. St. John's did beat Providence Saturday, but that was at home and they were fortunate in that the Friars missed 13 of 16 three-point attempts. While the Red Storm haven't been blown out many times this season, I feel that this team is teetering on the brink right now and just isn't on the same level as Butler. 8* Butler |
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02-02-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Phoenix Suns +3 | Top | 102-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (9:05 ET): I think it's pretty nice that we are able to get points w/ the Suns at home in this situation. Admittedly, the Grizzlies are playing well right now. They've won six straight and 10 of 11. But that's driven the asking price up to an unreasonable range, as far as I'm concerned. Memphis actually hasn't been a road favorite of three points or less all season, which tells me that this is the kind of game where they should be a slight dog, or basically a pick em. My own personal power rankings rate this game as a toss up, again making the home team a solid value taking the points. Phoenix recently beat both Washington and Chicago here at home. The Suns' 106-87 loss to the Warriors Saturday night doesn't look as bad when you consider how good Golden State is, plus the fact Phoenix was actually leading outright for much of the first half and by as many as 12 points. Despite playing most of their games at home, the Suns are just 1-5 ATS L6 overall. After being held way under their season average at Golden State Saturday (shot just 36.3 percent), I would expect a bounce back offensively here from the Suns as they average 107.4 points per game here at home. Saturday was their first time being held under 40 percent shooting in their L24 games. Despite the recent poor results at the betting window, they did win six of eight games straight up on their last homestand. This is also a double revenge spot for Phoenix. They lost by 11 here at home (were 1.5-pt favorites then) and 12 in Memphis earlier this season. This will only be Memphis' second road game dating back to mid-January. I think that's key and like I said earlier, my own personal power rankings suggest that this line is off by about three points. 10* Phoenix |
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02-02-15 | Wisconsin Green Bay v. Wright State +6 | Top | 71-58 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
8* Wright State (8:05 ET): Green Bay is off two tough games, against the teams now tied for first place in the Horizon League, who are one-half game ahead of them. So a win here by the Phoenix would make it a three-way tie. But really, they're lucky not to be on a two-game losing streak. They needed to come back from a halftime deficit vs. Valpo (at home) and were fortunate in that the Crusaders went ice cold in the 2H, scoring just 16 points. Then on Saturday, they fell behind quickly at Cleveland State (25-8!) and while they did get closer, they never really threatened. Though Green Bay had a lot of time off between those two games, this is now their second road game in three days. It's a tough spot to be laying points. Wright State, has dropped four of five, but two were to the conference co-leaders and the other three on the road. The Raiders did pull an upset last Monday, in Detroit, which caught my eye as I actually went against them. Unfortunately, Saturday did not go as well as they lost 84-76 at Oakland. But that loss came about in overtime after Wright State blew a 10 point lead w/ just under 12 minutes to go. They certainly didn't play poorly in the extra period either, scoring 14 pts, but unfortunately they gave up 22 (that's a lot!). Here at home, we should expect the Raiders to be a lot more stout on the defensive end as they allow just 62.1 points per game here. This is also a massive revenge spot for Wright State, who was blown out in Green Bay by 24 nearly a month ago. The spread for that game was "only" 10 points, so there is some value here getting six w/ the home team. Green Bay has lost two of its four Horizon League road games so far. In one of their two wins, they covered the spread by only a single point. Wright State has four losses this year in either OT or by five points or less, so that record could definitely be a bit better. Take the points. 8* Wright State. |
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02-02-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Toronto Raptors -6.5 | Top | 82-75 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:35 ET): The Raptors have gotten hot again, winning six straight. Five of those were against non-playoff teams, but Saturday saw them win in Washington, beating the Wizards 120-116 (as five-point dogs) in overtime. It probably shouldn't have even gone to OT as Toronto led by 16 entering the fourth quarter. While the team's last two wins have both been close, they were on the road. Toronto's lofty YTD scoring average actually goes DOWN here at home (104.9), but importantly so too does their points allowed, all the way to 97.4 points per game. The Bucks were blown out by 41 pts in their first visit "North of the Border" this season and while I don't anticipate this matchup being as one-sided, I'm going to lay the points. Milwaukee has gone 4-1 SU its L5 games, covering every game. They upset Portland, at home, Saturday. Perhaps that win doesn't seem as impressive when you consider the Blazers' recent struggles (lost 3 straight). These have been the two best shooting teams in the league over their last five games, but looking at overall season averages, it's Toronto that looks more likely to sustain that level of offensive play. They are tops in the Eastern Conference in scoring at 106.8 PPG while Milwaukee is more "middle of the pack" at 98.8 PPG. In addition to posting their largest MOV of the season here in Toronto earlier this year, the Raptors also beat the Bucks in Milwaukee about three weeks ago. The Bucks have been one of the league's better bets all season. They currently stand at 32-14-1 ATS YTD, which is the league's second best record (trailing only Atlanta) when factoring in the pointspread. While Toronto has matched its longest win streak of the season, at the same time Milwaukee has reached a point at which it typically plateaus. They are 0-2 SU/ATS when on a three-game win streak this season, and 2-6 SU/1-7 ATS in that role the last three seasons. I just don't see the Bucks, on the road, being able to keep pace w/ a Raptors team that is now fully healthy and playing its best ball of the year. 8* Toronto |
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02-01-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. New York Knicks -3 | Top | 80-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
full analysis soon |
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02-01-15 | Quinnipiac v. Niagara +6.5 | Top | 100-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
10* Niagara (2:00 ET): Things haven't been going so well for the Purple Eagles of late (or really all season) as they've lost nine in a row to drop to 3-17 SU on the year. They're currently tied for last (w/ Marist) in the MAAC, which obviously doesn't sound too encouraging, but consider that three of the team's previous five defeats have come by four points or fewer. A Quinnipiac squad that is just 3-6 ATS as a favorite to begin with, probably isn't the best candidate to be laying points on the road and it should be pointed out they beat Marist by only one (on the road) laying an almost identical number last month. Take the points in this one. Niagara was actually favored in their last game, what looked to be their "most winnable" game in conference play, that being a home date w/ Marist. But they lost w/ the final score being 65-61 in what was a fairly even game. The key was the Purple Eagles committing 17 turnovers. One positive, however, is that for a second straight game four players scored in double figures. This is one of the youngest teams in the nation, but they do seem to be getting better as the season progresses as the recent rash of close losses show. Quinnipiac has won all five meetings w/ Niagara since joining the MAAC. That includes a 3-0 sweep last year, but the game here was a two-point affair decided at the buzzer. The Bobcats had a three-game win streak snapped Friday w/ a loss at Canisius where they scored only 57 points. Again, its worrisome to find a team that's averaging just 67.7 PPG, favored on the road. 10* Niagara |
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02-01-15 | Miami Heat +3.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 83-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
8* Miami (1:05 ET): You don't hear this very often, but perhaps the Heat will be better off away from home? They have one of the league's worst records at home this year, going 8-15 SU. Despite not having Dwyane Wade, things started well enough Friday vs. Dallas as Miami jumped out to a 12-point halftime lead (were 9-pt dogs). Then, the bottom fell out as they were outscored 60-27 in the 2H, including being on the wrong end of a preposterous 37-2 run at one point. While still in seventh place in the East (despite a 20-26 SU record), there are several indicators (namely a poorer point differential than most of the other teams) that this group simply isn't very good. But taking points today against the Celtics should be enough. One thing that you have to like about the Heat is that they allow the second fewest number of points per game in the league (96.4). Consistent to their overall performance, they actually allow fewer PPG on the road compared to at home. That's a far cry from the kind of defense we've seen this year from Boston, who allows 103.5 PPG and even more at home. The one bright spot this year for Miami has been the emergence of Hassan Whiteside. Since January 11th, he's averaged 11.6 rebounds and a league-best 3.3 blocks per game. He had 16 pts and 24 rebounds Friday and despite his own 7 of 11 shooting, the team went 33 percent from the field, a season-low. Expect a natural improvement on the offensive end tonight. Ironically, Boston is also coming off its worst shooting game of the season (35.6%), a 93-87 loss here at home to Houston on Friday. That final score is a tad bit misleading when you consider that the Celtics trailed by as many as 18 points. When these teams played right before XMas, in Miami, it was the Heat winning 100-84 as a three-point home dog. Because of the margin of that win, they're getting more respect from the linesmakers here and they should as they've gone 7-1 ATS vs. the Atlantic Division this year. Boston has only one win by more than one point since January 14th. 8* Miami |
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01-31-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. San Antonio Spurs -5.5 | Top | 105-85 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
10* San Antonio (9:05 ET): The Clippers currently own the league's third best scoring differential (+6.9 PPG), but are only fifth in the loaded Western Conference. As I said earlier in the week, when I played against them in Utah (Jazz covered as 7-pt dogs), no team has played fewer road games. With last night's outright loss in New Orleans, LA is now just 12-8 SU away from home. Now, without rest, they have to head to San Antonio. The defending champion Spurs are playing very well right now, having won seven of eight, and this will be the first time in four games that they're NOT being asked to lay double digits at the betting window. They're rested too; having not played since Wednesday's 95-86 win over Charlotte. Lay the points. The Spurs have won both previous meetings this year w/ the Clippers, including 125-118 here in the Alamo, right before Christmas. They shot an insane percentage (63.5%!) in that game that cannot be duplicated here. But, that being said, the team still averages over 105 PPG here at home and the bigger story could be their defense, which is allowing just 93.3 PPG the L14 games. The Spurs have also had the Clippers' number through the years, winning 31 of the past 34 times they've met here in San Antonio (includes playoffs), plus they are 22-5 SU the L27 matchups overall! The Clippers have not fared well in the second game of back to backs this season, at least at the betting window, where they've gone 3-8 against the spread. They're also giving up an average of 102.2 PPG on the road after allowing 108 last night in New Orleans. At seven games, this is their longest road trip of the season, and this is the third game in four nights. They actually trailed the Pelicans by as many as 14 points last night and were outrebounded 51-38 for the game. They also missed 75% of their three-point attempts, going just 7 for 28. This is a tough spot and even taking points, it's tough to make a case for the Clips here. 10* San Antonio |
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01-31-15 | Philadelphia 76ers +17 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 85-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (7:35 ET): Both of these teams, while at opposite ends of the NBA spectrum, won last night. For Philadelphia, I felt it was perhaps the one game all year in which they should have been favored, hosting Minnesota, and they delivered a 103-94 home victory (as four-point dogs). As horrible as this team looked over the course of the first two months of the season, they now have 10 wins and six of those have come in January. Tonight sees them going for their first three-game win streak of the year, and while that's unlikely to happen, the Sixers are catching a huge number against an Atlanta team that was somewhat fortunate to extend its winning streak to 18 games last night. Take the points. Atlanta, the Eastern Conference leaders at 39-8 straight up, covered the spread in each of the first 15 games during the current win streak. But then they failed twice in a row, laying double-digits, to Minnesota and Brooklyn here at home. Last night, facing what we all knew would be a stiffer test from Portland, the Hawks trailed by five points entering the fourth quarter. But they scored 36 points over the final 12 minutes to pull off the victory. The team now owns the best record in the entire league. But might they be "peaking" too early? And at what point do they hit a tipping point? For some, they would not have covered last night, making it three straight ATS losses. Their 1-2 ATS this season as a favorite of more than 12.5 points and this is likely to be the most points they'll lay in any game all season. Philadelphia has dropped the first two meetings w/ Atlanta this year by an average of 17 PPG, so this spread is probably just about right. The losses have been by 16 and 18 points and were pretty similar. They actually came into the last meeting, back on January 13th, off B2B wins as well. The one difference though is that those two wins had both come by three points or less. They've since won three times by nine or more points, something they had not done even one time previously. Right now, the Hawks' depth is being tested w/ DeMarre Carroll (a starter) and Thabo Sefolosha both injured and another frontcourt player, Shelvin Mack, has missed six straight games as well. All-Star PG Jeff Teague has shot poorly (38.5 percent) the L7 games. 8* Philadelphia |
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01-31-15 | Georgetown -3.5 v. Creighton | Top | 67-40 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
10* Georgetown (2:00 ET): The Hoyas are off a bad showing against Xavier earlier in the week that knocked them out of first place in the Big East. They got off to a terrible start in the eventual 66-53 loss (were four-point favorites), going w/out a made field goal for an 11-minute stretch and finishing w/ a season-low 16 pts in the first half. With a 3-1 record in overtime games this season, there has certainly been some good fortune come Gtown's way, but also remember this is a team that defeated Villanova by 20 points just 12 days ago, which was no accident. I'll call for John Thompson III's team to bounce back here against a Creighton squad that just won for the first time in 10 games Wednesday. Lay the points. It really was an irregular game for the Hoyas on Tuesday against Xavier. They committed a season-high 17 turnovers, 13 of them coming in that disastrous first half. They also shot only 13 of 24 from the free throw line after going 28 of 32 in a road win over Marquette the game previous. They were also outrebounded, 36-28, after finishing w/ a +5.3 per game edge on the boards its previous five contests. Note that the Hoyas have bounced back from their two previous Big East losses w/ a win and cover. One of those came against this Creighton team back on January 3rd. Eerily similar is that they were coming off a loss to Xavier and they responded by beating the Blue Jays 76-61 as eight-point favorites. With the graduation of Doug McDermott (coach's son), we all figured Creighton would take a big step back this year and they have. Wednesday marked their first Big East win of the season, snapping a nine-game losing streak, which was tied for the longest such skid in the 99-year history of the program. The win, which came by just three points here in Omaha over slumping St. John's, probably doesn't mean much in the big picture. In these teams' first meeting, Georgetown played one of its best games of the season, shooting a season-best 58.7 percent from the field, including 8 of 19 on three-point attempts. While maybe they don't match those lofty percentages here, it is notable that Creighton has allowed its last two opponents to shoot 50 percent (22 of 44) from behind the arc. 10* Georgetown |
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01-31-15 | TCU v. Iowa State -9 | Top | 66-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
8* Iowa State (2:00 ET): At the start of January, TCU was one of the last remaining unbeatens in the entire country. What a difference a month makes, huh? The Horned Frogs have dropped six of seven in Big 12 play, many of them admittedly close, and now have to face another conference heavweight on the road Saturday. It's very likely that eight of the 10 teams in the Big 12 make the NCAA Tournament. At the forefront is #15 Iowa State, who took a terrible beat in their win over Texas Monday. The final score says the Cyclones won by only three, but they led by as many as 21 in the second half, before an improbable offensive display from Texas took place. That means anyone who laid the five points w/ ISU was left scratching their head, but here I'm more confident in their ability to close, even laying a bigger number. For the first 28 minutes of the game Monday, Fred Hoiberg's team looked as good as they have all season. That's really saying something when you consider the Cyclones have also beaten Kansas and won at West Virginia. A key here will be getting out in transition. Iowa State is third in the nation in transition points, averaging 22 points per game. At home, that should not be an issue. This is a team that's won its last 18 games in Ames and 42 straight here over unranked foes. This season, they've averaged 84.0 PPG at Hilton Coliseum, winning by an average of of 16.5 PPG. Against the Longhorns, they shot 54.7% from the field and keep in mind that's with a pretty notable size disadvantage. They got to the free throw line with great frequency in what was their fourth win over ranked opponent this season. This team also leads the nation in assists per game. A big reason for TCU's decline can simply be explained by the step up in competition. They played a pretty weak non-conference schedule overall. They are averaging 22 less points per 100 possessions in conference play compared to non-conference games. Poor free throw shooting hasn't helped either. As a team, they shoot just 60.9 percent from the charity stripe, one of the worst marks in the entire country. Last year, the Horned Frogs were swept by ISU despite leading scorer Kyan Anderson averaging 22.5 PPG. Both losses were by double digits. 8* Iowa State |
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01-31-15 | Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh +5.5 | Top | 72-76 | Win | 100 | 4 h 53 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (12:00 ET): Wednesday saw Notre Dame catch Duke in a bad spot (for the Blue Devils, that is), as they were coming Coach K's 1,000th career victory and had a showdown w/ unbeaten Virginia on deck. Coming from behind late, the Irish won 77-73 as 1.5-point dogs. But now, off that "upset" win on TV, it's they who are primed to be in letdown mode. Meanwhile, Pitt is off the opposite kind of result - that being a 70-67 overtime loss at Virginia Tech (were 3.5 pt favorites) that was decided in the final seconds. The loss was their third straight, but only one not to a top 10 team, and also dropped the Panthers to a poor 1-7 ATS their last eight. I feel that in this early Saturday start, we're going to see a little "regression to the mean." Take the points. Notre Dame has won a number of close games this year. Just recently, as in during this month, they've beaten North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Miami, NC State and Duke all by five points or less. That's all but one of their last six victories and doesn't even include a seven-point win at home over Georgia Tech at the start of the month. Only one of their four ACC games to date has been decided by a margin greater than three points. Keep in mind that against Duke, the Irish trailed by 10 points w/ just 10 minutes to go. They failed to cover their lone chances as a road fave of 3.5 to 6 pts this season, beating Ga Tech by only three. Not only is Pitt just 1-7 ATS its last eight games, but going back even further they are 1-10 ATS L11 lined games overall. While only 1-5 ATS as a dog this season, Jamie Dixon's team is a strong 9-2 straight up at home, holding opponents to just 60.1 points per game. Opponents are shooting a really high percentage from three-point range against them of late, a rate that I do not believe can be sustained. So much of handicapping college basketball comes down to the situation, and while it worked in Notre Dame's favor Wednesday, it does not today. 8* Pittsburgh |
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01-31-15 | Xavier v. Seton Hall +2 | Top | 82-90 | Win | 100 | 4 h 53 m | Show |
8* Seton Hall (12:00 ET): The Big East is a real crapshoot right now. Of all teams, it is Providence that comes in w/ the conference lead, but seven teams are within two games of the Friars. Two of them play here. If you're looking for more evidence of the "upside-down" nature of this league, consider that BOTH Xavier & Seton Hall are coming off SU dog wins, the former at Georgetown and the latter at Marquette. The Musketeers had previously failed to cover five in a row and also have an outright loss to Depaul on their resume. As for the Pirates, they too have lost to the Blue Demons, but also own a win over Villanova. In addition to the homecourt, I think the deciding factor here is revenge, as Seton Hall has it from a 69-58 loss back on January 7th. Xavier's win at Georgetown Tuesday was impressive. However, it was also just their third away from home all season. They're 3-7 SU in road/neutral site games as opposed to a perfect 11-0 SU at home. Considering they've now swept the season series from the 21st ranked Hoyas, the Musketeers probably deserve to be in the Top 25 as well, and if they were to win here would likely replace G'town in the poll. The only thing, however, is that they got a great deal of help Tuesday from the Hoyas, who went scoreless for an 11-minute stretch in the first half and also missed 11 of 24 free throw attempts. While it's the smallest of numbers, I find it odd that Xavier now finds itself in the favored role considerint the poor overall road record. They have lost outright both previous times they were road chalk (Depaul, Auburn). In the first meeting this year between these teams, Seton Hall actually came in as the ranked team, but was the 7.5-point underdog on the road. They didn't shoot well at all, just 41.1 percent for the game in fact, and the 58 points scored matched a season-low (at the time). They've since scored only 57 in a loss to Butler, but as mentioned earlier, bounced back Wednesday at Marquette w/ an upset win where leading scorer Sterling Gibbs led the way w/ 24 pts. Gibbs missed every shot he took in the 2nd half in the first meeting w/ Xavier, something I don't see repeating itself here, and even better is that the Pirates' second leading scorer (Isaiah Whitehead) appears as if he's ready to return after missing the last month of action. 8* Seton Hall |
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01-30-15 | Kent State v. Buffalo -5.5 | Top | 55-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (10:00 ET): It's pretty telling about the state of the MAC when the conference's top team is a dog of this size on the road against a middle of the road team. Kent State has won six in a row, covering the spread in each of the last five, but I see the streak coming to an end tonight in this late night start in Buffalo. The Bulls did just beat another of the league's better teams, that being Western Michigan, Tuesday night here at home by a score of 77-71. They also swept Kent State last year. Lay the points. Buffalo is led by the unheralded Justin Moss, a player that deserves more recognition nationally after going for 23 points and 10 rebounds in the team's win over Western Michigan. The Bulls won that game despite missing 19 of 21 three-point attempts, something I don't see repeating itself here night. The win over WMU improved Buffalo to a perfect 7-0 SU this season at home where they are averaging 80.7 points per game. That's another reason you shouldn't be surprised to find Kent State as the underdog here. The Bulls have won all by one of the ten games in which they've been favored this season. This is a team that played both Kentucky and Wisconsin earlier in the year and was even competitive in Madison. As for Kent State, they're averaging just 63.4 PPG on the road despite a 6-2 record there (includes 2-1 in neutral site games). As alluded to earlier, the MAC is not a deep conference, and the Golden Flashes have largely been able to take advantage of playing a number of "bottom rung" teams to this point. The one exception would be a 63-53 home win over Central Michigan earlier this week. A 17-0 second half run was the key there as the Chippewas, who came in averaging 83.9 PPG, shot just 33.9 percent for the game. Here, I look for Buffalo to hand Kent just its second MAC loss of the season. 8* Buffalo |
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01-30-15 | Dallas Mavericks v. Miami Heat +9 | Top | 93-72 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
10* Miami (8:00 ET): Even playing w/out Dwyane Wade, I believe the Heat can stick w/ the Mavericks tonight. Dallas is mired in its longest losing streak of the season (four straight), thus laying a hefty number on the road right now isn't a very good idea, even if they are 4-0 ATS this season as a road fave of -6.5 to -9 points. The Mavs have also gone 0-4 ATS during the losing streak, most recently falling at Houston Weds night, by a score of 99-94 as 2.5-point pups. After leading the league in scoring for much of the year, the Mavs have failed to top 100 pts in four of their last five games. Miami is a perfect 5-0 SU vs. Dallas the L3 seasons, including a 105-96 road win earlier this season, as eight-point dogs. Take the points. The Heat are off an outright loss on Tuesday, as 2.5-point home favorites, to Milwaukee. The 109 pts allowed in that game were the most since December 3rd. While offense has been an issue for Coach Spo's team, defensively they rank 2nd in the entire league at just 96.4 PPG allowed. Prior to playing the Bucks, they'd allowed just 87.8 PPG on 40.2 percent shooting over a 10-game span that had seen them go 6-4 straight up. Something else that perplexes me is Miami's 8-14 SU record at home. I'm not saying they'll win outright here, but aren't they "due" to start winning a little bit more on South Beach? Rajon Rondo was thought to be the final piece of the puzzle for Dallas, but he's averaging just 6.8 PPG since January 4th and was held scoreless in Wednesday night's loss. The team's win percentage with him is .579 as opposed to .679 before making the trade. Not only are they averaging seven points per game less w/ Rondo, but they are also averaging a fewer number of assists! Part of the issue is Rondo is shooting an absolutely unforgiveable 30.9 percent from the free throw line this season. What a joke! In case you were wondering, that would be the worst FT shooting percentage in league history by a guard w/ at least 50 attempts. Look for the Heat to keep this one closer than expected. 10* Miami |
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01-30-15 | Monmouth -3.5 v. Fairfield | Top | 60-59 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* Monmouth (8:00 ET): Despite only being 11-10 SU overall, Monmouth is just a game out of first place in the MAAC w/ a 7-3 conference record. First place Iona doesn't play until tomorrow, but the Hawks can at least move into a tie w/ Rider (who won last night) for second place w/ a win tonight. Already 8-2 ATS on the road this season, despite a loss at Manattan their last time out, Monmouth visits Fairfield tonight. The Stags are not having a good season as they come in having lost three straight and 9 of their last 11. While this is a rare visit to campus by the ESPNU cameras, that motivation won't be enough to overcome what is simply the better team. Lay the points. Fairfield's season perhaps hit its nadir Sunday when they lost at Marist, a team that had previously not won a single MAAC game this year. Despite holding the Red Foxes to just 35.7% shooting for the game, it was enough as they (Marist) got to the free throw line 44 times and wound up scoring 48 points after halftime. Marist was one of the two teams that Fairfield had beaten over the last month and represents their lone home victory dating all the way back to the conference opener on December 5th. The Stags are just 3-7 SU (2-7 ATS) on their home floor this year, scoring a meager 59.3 points per game. In case you couldn't pick up on it, what I'm trying to say here is that this is not a very good team. As for Monmouth, they've already beaten Fairfield once this season, 77-70 at home, 12 days ago. Unfortunately, they just missed out on the cover as they were laying 7.5 points at the betting window. The Hawks did have to rally back from a small halftime deficit, but again it was a Fairfield opponent getting to the FT line at an incredible prodigious rate (40 times). That helped alleviate the fact Monmouth missed 11 of 12 three-point attempts, which is something they should be better at here. Fairfield is 0-7 SU/1-6 ATS vs. teams with winning records this season and I don't see things getting any better tonight. 10* Monmouth |
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01-30-15 | Toronto Raptors v. Brooklyn Nets +7.5 | Top | 127-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
8* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): Toronto has yet to drop a division game this year. They're 8-0 vs. the rest of the Atlantic, which you have to remember is a really awful division. If the Nets fail to make the playoffs this year (very possible!), then it's likely the Raptors will be the lone rep from the division still playing at that time. But for tonight, I believe the Atlantic leaders to be laying too many points on the road. I realize that January hasn't gone well at all for Brooklyn, who has lost 11 of 13. But they did just hang tough w/ a good Atlanta team on the road Weds night and thus I see them staying within this generous number tonight. Take the points. The Raptors are the Eastern Conference's highest scoring team on the road, at 106.0 points per game, but they do have their issues defensively on the road. "South of the border," they allow a pretty frightening 104.5 PPG. Now, Brooklyn's offense isn't exactly setting the world on fire this year. They come in averaging just 95.1 PPG. Their defense hasn't been much better of late either. But, for the season, the Nets allow just 98.3 PPG at home and they did just top 100 pts offensively against the Hawks. This is the first of back to back games for Toronto, who will visit Washington tomorrow night. That game is more likely to have their attention that this one, so there is the lookahead factor. It's also the Raptors' third game in four nights. With a scheduled game vs. Portland cancelled earlier this week because of the poor weather in the Northeast, Brooklyn has played only the one game since Saturday. So they should be well-rested and ready to go as they look to snap a three-game losing streak. This is a lot of points for a home team to be taking. 8* Brooklyn |
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01-29-15 | Utah v. UCLA +6.5 | Top | 59-69 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
10* UCLA (10:00 ET): I played against the Bruins on Saturday, noting the string of embarrassing performances that have been put forth by this once proud program. Things certainly don't look any better after they were blown out 82-64 at Oregon (closed as only 2.5 point dogs!), so why the switch in direction, especially for a matchup w/ Final Four contender Utah? Well, for starters, this game takes place in Pauley Pavillion. Utah has had to play only two Pac 12 road games to this point, losing one of them to Arizona. All three of the Utes' losses this year have come away from home (including neutral sites) and it's pretty shocking that a team could have only played four "true" road games at this point in the season. Take the points. Now UCLA hasn't done much when getting points this year, going 1-8 ATS as a dog. Meanwhile, Utah is 10-3 ATS as a favorite. But those things have a way of evening out over the course of a season and the home team getting this many points to work with is one such way that occurs. Also, this is a massive revenge spot for the Bruins as one of their most embarrassing defeats of the year came at the hands of the Utes, in Salt Lake City, 71-39 earlier this month. That's not a typo. UCLA shot just 28.8% for the game and made only one three-pointer. Leading scorer Bryce Alford (coach's son) missed all 10 shots he took. Consider that at home, they are 9-1 SU and averaging an impressive 83.9 points per game. Utah's issue on the road has been a lack of scoring as they average just 60 PPG. They have not won here at Pauley Pavillion in 53 years. Since joining the Pac 12, they've lost here by margins of 14 and 27 points. Those obviously came against better UCLA teams, but I don't see any way possible that the Bruins can be worse than they were in this season's first matchup. 10* UCLA |
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01-29-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Orlando Magic +4.5 | Top | 115-100 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
8* Orlando (7:05 ET): Milwaukee has been one of the best teams at the betting window all season, going 30-14-1 ATS overall, a record topped only by Atlanta to this point. It includes a 19-6 road record, and surprisingly a 10-5 mark when favored (4-0 as road chalk!). But as a result, the asking price has gone up as this will be the first time all season that they will have had to lay more than 3.5 points in any away game, save for two, one w/ the horrible Knicks and the other against Philadelphia. Granted, Orlando isn't much better than those two, but they did beat Milwaukee earlier this year, on this floor. Quite simply, the Buck stops here! One key thing to note when handicapping this game is that Milwaukee has not won here in Orlando in over 10 years. That certainly makes it sound as if they're "due," especially considering the different states of the two teams currently, but as I just said, it was Orlando coming out on top earlier this year. It was a 101-85 win for the Magic back on November 14th, and interestingly they were the favorite for that game. It was the Bucks' 17th straight loss here in Orlando, a streak that goes all the way back to 2004. Now, Milwaukee has gone 2-0 ATS in the first two games of this three-game road trip, covering in San Antonio and winning outright over Miami, but both times they were underdogs. The last time this team was favored was exactly one week ago, and I played against them, getting an outright win w/ a pretty subpar Utah team. As for the Magic, they did at least earn the cover Monday night in Memphis (as 12-pt dogs). Overall though, the team has lost six straight and 12 of its last 14. That's hardly an encouraging sign, but they are 14-7 ATS this year vs. teams w/ winning records, thanks in large part to inflated spreads. That's what I see here as the Bucks are due to come back down to Earth after Tuesday's hot shooting performance (54.9% overall) that included 44 bench points. I don't see a repeat of that taking place here. 8* Orlando |
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01-28-15 | Washington Wizards v. Phoenix Suns -5 | Top | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
8* Phoenix (10:35 ET): The fact that the Wizards are playing in the second night of back to backs and have a banged up leading scorer has me willing to lay the points here with Phoenix. It's a number that's being bet up as we speak, so I recommend getting down quickly. Last night saw Washington prevail 98-92 in LA (against the Lakers), but they did not cover as 8.5-point favorites. That dropped them to 0-4 ATS L4 overall and with this being the finale of a four-game, five-day West Coast swing, it's difficult to imagine them "staying in the money." Phoenix has also failed to cover its last three games. The difference is that all of theirs have been at home. This is their seventh of what will be eight straight played at home, so situationally things could not be better for them tonight against the road-weary Wizards. The homestand started well enough w/ the Suns winning four straight, but they have lost the last two, to Houston and the Clippers, both of whom are obviously very tough opponents. Washington, from the weaker conference, is not in that same class. Case in point, while the Wiz are second in the East and Phoenix eighth in the West, they have roughly the same YTD point differentials. Washington actually trailed the Lakers by as many as 19 points last night. John Wall had a monster game, finishing w/ 21 pts, nine rebounds and 13 assists. But already dealing w/ an Achilles injury, he injured his ankle stepping on a cameraman. I would not be surprised to see Wall given the night off here. But even if does suit up, this is a tired team. Phoenix won outright in D.C earlier this year, 104-92, and despite the sizable swing in the pointspread from that game, I feel they are a great situational play this evening. Don't forget this is a national TV game as well, so with the Suns off B2B losses, they'll be highly motivated. 8* Phoenix |
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01-28-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Utah Jazz +6.5 | Top | 94-89 | Win | 102 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
8* Utah (9:05 ET): The Jazz followed up their biggest (in terms of margin) victory of the year (108-73 Sat vs. Brooklyn) w/ an outright loss here at home Monday to Boston, 99-90. After being favored in each of those last two games, they're now back in their customary role of underdog against a Clippers team that needed a furious fourth quarter rally to overcome Denver at home its last time out. Something else to consider in regards to Los Angeles is that they've played the fewest number of road games in the league to this point (just 18). Thus, I don't see them as a great bet laying this many points tonight in what will be the first of eight consecutive road contests. Take the points here. This will be the fourth time already that these two teams have played this year. The Clippers have won all three previous meetings, but two of those were decided by six points or less. Ironically, the one that wasn't was the one here in Salt Lake City. Incredibly, the Clips have beaten the Jazz 12 straight times. But I come back to the fact they are only 11-7 SU on the road this year and the fact they allow 102.7 points per game makes it difficult to cover the spread when it is as large as it is here. They're just 4-8 ATS the L12 times they have been a road favorite in the 6.5 to 9 point range, including 1-1 this year. The only other two teams to be favored in Utah over the last month are Golden State and Atlanta. It's just too many points. 8* Utah |
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01-28-15 | Duke v. Notre Dame +1 | Top | 73-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
10* Notre Dame (7:30 ET): Not only is Duke facing a fellow Top 10 team on the road here, but they are doing so just days before a huge showdown w/ unbeaten Virginia. While Notre Dame certainly is deserving of the Blue Devils' full attention, you have to admit it's probably going to be tough for Coach K's team to not look ahead to Saturday. That's not all that's working against Duke, however, in what will be the second of three consecutive road games this week. On Sunday, they needed a furious late rally to win at St. John's, giving Coach K his coveted 1,000th career victory. Just a brutal spot here for the Blue Devils against a team that has only lost twice all season and is an underdog at home. Notre Dame is off a close call themselves where they beat NC State on the road, 81-78 in overtime. They too had to rally as they trailed the Wolfpack by 12 at the half and by as many as 18. A big reason for that early deficit was uncharacteristically poor three-point shooting. The Irish lead the ACC at 40.5% from behind the arc, but missed 11 of their first 12 from that range. They would go on to shoot 8 of 17 from distance in the second half and overtime. Also note that game was on the road. Here in South Bend, the team is 13-1 SU this year and 43-9 SU its last 52. Expect a fever pitch tonight at Purcell Pavilion as this is the first time since '03 that both Notre Dame and the visitor are ranked in the top 10. The Irish have won five of their last six here at home vs. Top 10 teams, including a 79-77 win over Duke last season. By the way, Notre Dame's scoring differential here in South Bend is +22.6 per game. Duke, like the Irish, had to rally from a double digit deficit Sunday. They were quite fortunate in that St. John's went ice cold in the second half. After making 56.3% of their shots outside the paint in the 1st half, the Red Storm missed on 11 of 12 such attempts in the 2H. The other big difference was the decline in points in transition from half to half. The Johnnie's scored 16 pts in transition before halftime, but only two after. I keep coming back to the letdown/lookahead nature of this game for the Blue Devils while for Notre Dame, this may be their biggest game all season. 10* Notre Dame |
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01-28-15 | Duquesne +13.5 v. Richmond | Top | 55-86 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
8* Duquesne (7:00 ET): Unlike yday's play in the Atlantic 10, when we focused on two teams at the top of the standings (VCU & George Washington), today we're looking at a pair of teams closer to the bottom of the league. Duquesne has just one conference win all year, that coming back on January 7th at home against St. Joe's. Only lowly Fordham (who should not even be in the A-10!) is keeping the Dukes out of the league basement. Here, they'll be taking on a Richmond team that's dropped five of eight, many of them close, including a 63-60 setback at Dayton over the weekend. The Spiders are 3-3 in league play so far and despite the drop in class tonight are laying too big of a number for my tastes. Take the points. While they've been experiencing mixed results on the floor, at the betting window Richmond has been cashing in w/ great frequency of late. They're 5-0 ATS last 5, but it should be pointed out that prior to this streak they had failed to cover six in a row. While the Spiders have been a much better team at home all season and swept Duquesne last year (17-1 SU L18 head-to-head), there are some clear warning signs about laying this many points. For starters, Richmond is averaging just 64.2 points per game. As a result, they're 0-2 ATS laying 12.5 or more points this season and 2-6 ATS in that role the L3 yrs. Laying any points at all, the Spiders are just 3-7 ATS in 2014-15. They're also 4-16 ATS after scoring 60 pts or less the previous game. Against Dayton, they trailed by 10 at halftime. Though Duquesne has lost five in a row, they've been close in a number of those losses. Saturday's loss at George Washington was the only one that came by a double digit margin. Three of the four prior to that came by six points or less, one of them in overtime. The Dukes average more PPG than do the Spiders (71.7 to 64.2) and assuming they don't have a disastrous half like the one they did vs. GW (fell behind 40-18), they'll absolutely be able to keep this one close throughout. Three-point shooting will be key also, as Duquesne is better from behind the arc, thanks to Derrick Colter and Micah Mason. 8* Duquesne |
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01-28-15 | Wright State v. Oakland -4 | Top | 76-84 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
8* Oakland (7:00 ET): I told you about the Golden Grizzlies' exploits on Monday and sure enough they went out and pulled a minor "upset" of Cleveland State, winning 59-56 at home. It was their fourth win in a row overall and I'll again remind you this is a squad that has beaten the other two top Horizon League teams (Valpo, Green Bay) on this floor as well. Speaking of upsets, Wright State pulled one over on me Monday, taking out Detroit on the road, 64-53 as 6.5-point dogs. It was no fluke either as the Raiders led pretty comfortably the whole way. That win snapped a three-game skid, but I don't see things going well for long as this will be their third straight road game (over an eight-day span) and second in three nights. Over its last nine lined games, Oakland is now 8-1 against the spread. While Wright State has been on the road a lot of late, this will be the Golden Grizzlies' fifth consecutive home game. They'll try and wrap up an unbeaten homestand and given their 8-3 SU record here, you have to like their chances. What I thought was most impressive about the win over Cleveland State is that Oakland shot only 39.5% from the field and it didn't hurt them. A big time edge in free throw attempts helped to alleviate that, but it should also be pointed out they led by 11 going into halftime. With the team averaging 75.4 PPG at home this year, I expect a bounce back performance on the offensive end tonight. Two of Wright State's three Horizon League wins have come at the expense of Detroit. The other was over last place Youngstown State. They've been blown out twice on the road in conference play, once by Green Bay (lost by 24) and then by Milwaukee (by 26). This marks a triple revenge spot for the home team as Oakland lost all three times it faced the Raiders last season, including by one here at home. Also remember that Wright State is still without its leading scorer, J.T. Yoho. 8* Oakland |
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01-27-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Dallas Mavericks -5.5 | Top | 109-90 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:35 ET): The last time these two Southwest Division rivals met, the Mavs picked up a big road win in Memphis, winning 103-95 as 2.5-point pups and the surprising thing is that they led most of the way, with the exception being a brief period in the fourth quarter. Since picking up that win, the Mavs have gone on to win once (against Minnesota) and then lose their last two, both coming by close margins against Chicago and New Orleans. Given the way they were able to handle the Grizzlies in Memphis, I see them bouncing back w/ a big win at home tonight. Lay the points. The loss to Dallas is Memphis' only defeat over its last eight games. They've since won three straight, but all were at home against Eastern Conference opponents. They played last night and beat Orlando, 103-94, but failed to cover the 12-point spread. I had the Under in that game and it cashed in large part to the Grizzlies only scoring 14 points in the fourth quarter. Now the team has to hit the road where they average about six less points per game than they do at home while at the same time contending with the highest scoring team in the league. Dallas is at 107.8 PPG for the year and at home averages 109.7 PPG. In other words, this isn't Orlando that Memphis is playing tonight. Something else to keep an eye on is the status of Grizzlies' PG Mike Conley, who sprained his wrist last night. Currently, he's listed as questionable to play and that would be a tough loss for a team playing on the road w/out rest. Overall, Memphis has lost 30 of its 37 all-time trips to Dallas, including 22 of the last 26. With the Mavericks having not lost three games in a row all year, I see them taking care of business tonight on their home floor. 10* Dallas |
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01-27-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Miami Heat -3.5 | Top | 109-102 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
8* Miami (7:35 ET): The Heat picked up one of their best wins of the season Sunday as they went to Chicago and beat the Bulls outright, 96-84 as 7.5-point dogs. It may be of interest to you that it was also their 11 straight game to finish Under the total. Milwaukee was on a similar streak, going Under in 12 straight games before a 101-99 loss to Utah flew past the number last Thursday. They've followed that up though w/ covers against Detroit (won the game) and San Antonio (lost by six getting double digits), improving their already tremendous ATS record to 29-14, which includes a 18-6 mark away from home. But tonight, the linesmakers aren't giving them many points and I look for Miami to cover this spread w/ "room to spare." So far this year, the spot that the Heat are in tonight has not been a good one. I'm speaking of the fact that they are 0-9 against the spread when coming off a SU dog win. They're also 0-7 ATS after allowing 85 pts or fewer in their previous game. But after one of their best wins of the season, they are building a little bit of momentum and now can win three in a row for the first time since opening the year 3-0 SU. The emergence of Hassan Whiteside on Sunday was certainly welcome as he went for a triple double that included 12 blocked shots. He's now averaging 12.3 points/8.6 rebounds/4.0 blocks his L9 games while shooting above 70 percent from the floor. That coupled w/ a healthy Dwyane Wade make the Heat a better team that what they've shown most of the season. With both teams having gone Under w/ such regularity of late, you would expect to find strong defensive numbers and that is the case. But the difference is that Miami has been getting it done on that end of the floor all year while w/ Milwaukee it's just a recent trend. The Heat are second in the league, allowing just 92.9 PPG while the Bucks' PPG allowed of 88.9 their L15 games is well under their overall season average. I'm also somewhat skeptical on just how well this team can play moving forward w/out a real "go to guy." Giannis Antetokounmpo is a great talent, but is he a guy that can really carry a team to the playoffs? 8* Miami |
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01-27-15 | George Washington v. VCU -7.5 | Top | 48-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
8* Virginia Commonwealth (7:00 ET): VCU is one of only a handful of teams left in the entire country not to have a conference loss on its resume. The only team from the A-10 currently ranked in the Top 25 (#14), the Rams are now 6-0 in conference play (16-3 overall), but were just given all they could handle in St. Louis Friday night. That 63-61 win required a last second shot and was the third straight game where the Rams prevailed by six points or less. But all of those contests were also on the road. Tonight, they return home to face GW, a team that's won 10 of its last 11, but while that streak includes a win over #12 Wichita State, they've mainly been beating up on the bottom-feeders of the Atlantic 10. I expect a big win from the home team in this one. The Rams have been great at home this year, going 8-1 straight up (lone loss to Virginia) while averaging 81.9 points per game on an efficient 46.1 shooting percentage. They'll need to be efficient here against a George Washington team that is giving up just 59.3 PPG. But the Colonials' problem is that they are averaging just 61.6 PPG away from home. They've been above that number in each of their last four games, all wins, but three of those games were at home and the last two against the worst teams in the A-10, Duquesne and Fordham. In fact, GW's last three opponents happen to be the teams w/ the three worst record in the conference. Before that, it was a double OT win at home over Richmond. So I don't necessarily "buy" into this team's record that much and as little regard as I have for the polls, it is telling that the Colonials aren't ranked. These teams have met four times since becoming conference rivals (schools are only two hours apart) and every time the game has been decided by double digits. Three of those have gone the way of VCU, the lone exception being the one time they had to pay a visit to GW's campus. The Colonials' two visits here have resulted in losses by a combined 44 points. After so many close calls, I believe VCU will have its Havoc Defense (10.4 steals per game) turned up & that's bad news for a GW side which has turned it over an average of 14.6 times/game its L6 on the road. 8* Virginia Commonwealth |
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01-27-15 | Pittsburgh -4 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 67-70 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (7:00 ET): The Panthers come into Blacksburg w/ a 13-7 SU record, but are 0-3 against Top 25 teams. They had to play both Duke and Louisville last week, but thankfully tonight's opponent is nowhere to be found in the rankings as Virginia Tech (8-11 SU overall) is a big-time drop in class. In fact, the Hokies are one of only two teams in the ACC w/out a conference win (Georgia Tech is the other), yet they seem to be getting an undue amount of respect from the linesmakers in this one. With #8 Notre Dame next on the schedule, this is a game Pitt must win and I think they will, plus cover to boot. Over the last three seasons, Jamie Dixon's team is 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS as a road fave of 3.5 to 6 points. Unfortunately, this year has seen Pitt go 0-5 ATS in "true" road games, part of a 4-13 ATS campaign overall. They've covered just one of seven conference games, but again this should be one of the easiest to date. The Panthers did host Georgia Tech earlier this month and were six-point favorites, but won by only five. Yet I look for them to escape with the money here as they've beaten Va Tech five straight times, including in double OT LY. Consider Pitt was actually an 18-point favorite against this same opponent a little under a year ago. This is a really tough spot for a Virginia Tech team coming off seven consecutive losses, the last four of which have all been to ranked opponents. On Sunday, they gave in-state rival Virginia all they could handle, losing by only three (were getting 16.5) here at home as they held the unbeaten Cavaliers to just 34.7% shooting for the game. Making this spot even tougher on them is the fact they will again not have leading scorer Justin Bibbs (13.6 PPG, 50.3 FG%) in the lineup as he sustained a concussion in practice 11 days ago. Also, earlier this month the Hokies' leading rebounder Joey Van Zegeren was suspended and has subsequently left the team. I get that w/out those two players the team was still able to hang tough w/ a very good Virginia team, but w/ only one day in between games, I don't think they'll come close to duplicating that kind of effort here, even against a lesser opponent. 10* Pittsburgh |
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01-26-15 | Boston Celtics v. Utah Jazz -8 | Top | 99-90 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
8* Utah (9:05 ET): While this might seem like a big number for the Jazz to lay, remember that they just beat Brooklyn by 35 pts the other night and that Boston is in a tough spot having to play the second night of back to backs. Sunday saw the Celtics actually stick w/ the heavily favored Warriors, on the road, losing just 114-111 as huge 17.5-point dogs. You have to wonder how much they'll have left in the tank here. While they have two wins so far in the first four games of what will be six-game West Coast trip, both came by only a single point and this is now they're fourth game in five nights. Utah, who is off B2B wins over Eastern Conference opponents, is 4-0 ATS after scoring 105+ points this season. While only 3-12 ATS off a SU win all year, I look for the Jazz to achieve their first 3-game win streak of the season. The Celtics are not a good team defensively as they are giving up 103.9 points per game for the year. When playing in the second game of back to backs, they're even worse, at 107.7 PPG. Somehow, they allowed just 99 in an upset of Denver Friday night, but now they're doing a second of back to backs for the second time in five days and it's hard to imagine them having much left in the tank. You have to remember that the Rajon Rondo trade left them w/ a pretty weak roster and they'll go into tonight short-handed as Marcus Smart is dealing with a death in the family and Kelly Olynyk has a sprained right ankle. That Boston was able to keep pace w/ Golden State last night was surprising, but note that the difference was 10 points w/ 36.3 seconds remaining before some garbage-time scoring ensued. Also, the Celtics are shooting just 68.7 percent from the free throw line their L4 games. Saturday was the largest margin of victory all season for the Jazz, so they do need to guard against a potential letdown. But the fact that the team is playing well and going for its longest win streak of the year should counteract that. Trey Burke is actually playing better off the bench (Exum now starting). With an upcoming brutal stretch of games and an unrested opponent, this is a spot the Jazz must take care of business in at home. 8* Utah |
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01-26-15 | Wright State v. Detroit -5 | Top | 64-53 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
10* Detroit (7:00 ET): The Titans really let one slip away on Friday, blowing a nine-point lead w/ 14 minutes to go, on the road vs. Cleveland State. They'll probably be kicking themselves over that loss to the Horizon League co-leaders, but fortunately for tonight they are facing one of the conference's weaker teams in Wright State. The visiting Raiders come in having lost three in a row, failing to cover each time, and they were soundly beaten their last time out, 67-41, by Milwaukee. While having almost a full week off helps some, it won't be enough to keep pace on the road here. Lay the points. Detroit has revenge here for a 13-point loss at Wright State back on January 2nd in what was the Horizon League opener for both squads. At the time, the Titans were mired in a long losing skid, but have since gone 4-2 straight up w/ the only two losses coming against the teams tied for first place in the conference and both were close. At home, Detroit has taken care of business the two times it has been favored, winning by margins of 16 and 20 over Milwaukee and Oakland, thus covering the spread by double digits. They're holding teams to just 63.2 points per game at home for the season. Poor shooting, particularly in the second half when they were outscored by 11 pts, doomed the Titans in the first meeting w/ Wright State. It should be a different story tonight. The win over Detroit is just one of two on Wright State's resume dating back to Christmas. The other came against the last place team in the Horizon League, Youngstown State. It was an ugly performance last Tuesday at Milwaukee as the Raiders shot just 27.5% for the game and trailed 34-15 at halftime. They also were outrebounded 47-19. A big problem for WSU right now is the absence of leading scorer (and rebounder) J.T. Yoho (16.1, 6.7), who is out 3-5 weeks w/ a knee injury. Yoho led the way w/ 18 pts in the first matchup w/ Detroit and will sorely be missed tonight. Note that this is a team that's scored 56 pts or less in four of its last five games and in the two w/out Yoho has averaged just 48.5 PPG. 10* Detroit |
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01-26-15 | Cleveland State v. Oakland +1.5 | Top | 56-59 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
8* Oakland (7:00 ET): Don't be fooled by the Golden Grizzlies' 8-12 SU record coming into tonight's game w/ Horizon League co-leader Cleveland State. They've not only won three in a row, including a double-digit victory over Milwaukee on Friday, but have previously pulled off two big upsets in conference play here at home. Back on January 2nd, they beat Valparaiso 89-75 as five-point dogs, then 11 days ago beat Green Bay (69-66, +6), the team that is favored to win this league and currently tied w/ Cleveland State for first place. Oakland also covered the number in the 1st matchup w/ CSU, losing only 65-61 as an eight-point dog back on January 8th. Now, they get to play host and I like their chances. Cleveland State is coming off a big come from behind win Friday against Detroit. I played against the Vikings in that one and was rewarded w/ the cover as the Titans closed as seven-point dogs in the 70-66 loss. Cleveland State actually trailed by as many as nine w/ 14 minutes to go in the game. Playing at home, they got to enjoy a tremendous edge in FT attempts, but didn't really take advantage, going just 20 for 33 from the charity stripe. On the road, such an advantage is unlikely to exist and while Gary Waters' team is a profitable 8-3 ATS away from home this season (one non-lined game), they are just 4-8 straight up and being outscored by an average of 2.6 points per game. This is also a lookahead spot for them as they host Green Bay in a battle for first place on Saturday. Oakland, however, will not be looking past this game as it's a revenge spot. The Golden Grizzlies are averaging 77.0 PPG at home this year and if they can get near that number, then they'll be in good shape considering CSU is averaging just 62 PPG on the road. Oakland has been quite profitable over the last month, going 7-1 ATS their last eight lined games. I've mentioned in the past how Cleveland State went 3-0 ATS vs. Louisville, Virginia & VCU. Well, Oakland did the same vs. Pitt, Clemson and Maryland. On Friday vs. Milwaukee, they shot 53 percent from the floor (taking 51 shots), which is a very good sign moving forward. 8* Oakland |
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01-25-15 | Detroit Pistons v. Toronto Raptors -7 | Top | 110-114 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:05 ET): Just when it appeared as if the Pistons we're turning a corner, they instead went off the road. Last night's 101-86 loss is even worse than it appears as PG Brandon Jennings left the game w/ what's being called a "lower leg injury" and will not play here. Quite honestly, an extended absence seems probable. Said Pistons HC Stan Van Gundy, "It's a major, major loss." He's not kidding. Jennings had really been the one guy to step his game up after the team cut ties w/ Josh Smith, averaging 20 PPG and 7.2 assists. He even turned in a 24-21 game (most assists in a NBA game this season) Weds vs. Orlando, so he will be missed. With this being the second night of back to backs, Detroit is in trouble. As for Toronto, they have been struggling for much of January, going just 4-7 SU and 2-8-1 ATS. They had to come from behind to defeat lowly Philadelphia (on the road) Friday night after falling behind 15-0 right off the bat. They still trailed by nine points with just over five minutes to play before PG Kyle Lowry took over. Lowry, who will start for the Eastern Conference in the All-Star Game, should be in line for another big game here due to the absence of Jennings. The Raptors have been one of the higher scoring teams in the league this year (105.6 PPG), so the fact that they've averaged just 90.2 their last five signifies to me that they're due for an offensive explosion. The Pistons, on the other hand, are one of the worst shooting teams in the league at 42.5% and one area that really hurts them is the free throw line where they are an unforgivable 69.9 percent for the year. Opponents are shooting under 70% from the FT line here in Toronto this year, so that's somewhat of a bad sign. Even before the Jennings injury, last night was shaping up to an ugly one for Detroit as they fell behind Milwaukee by as many as 30 points and the final score would not have ended up as close as it did had it not been for the Bucks scoring only 10 points in the fourth quarter. Jennings was the difference maker two weeks ago when the Pistons beat the Raptors here in Toronto, 114-111 as six-point dogs. Without him and without rest, it's tough to like their chances here. 8* Toronto |
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01-25-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. San Antonio Spurs -11 | Top | 95-101 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
10* San Antonio (7:05 ET): This shapes up to be a tough spot for Milwaukee on the road, one night after beating Detroit 101-86 at home. While it could have actually ended up being a far more lopsided win for the Bucks last night (led by as many as 30), it was a somewhat ugly finish w/ a 10-point fourth quarter. As I've stated before, this is a team that I feel is likely to somewhat "come back down to Earth" following a red-hot start to the season at the betting window, where at one point they'd covered nearly 70 percent of all of their games. Only Golden State and Atlanta are at that level right now and those two are clearly in a higher class than Milwaukee, who has not exactly been lighting it up offensively either of late. The Spurs have won five of six with the only loss since Kawhi Leonard came back taking place Thursday in Chicago against what was a desperate Bulls team. They responded w/ a 99-85 win over the Lakers on Friday, a result that fell right on the number for most. But it was a game that San Antonio led by as many as 23 and enjoyed a tremendous advantage on the glass. The Lakers are obviously a terrible team at this point, but Milwaukee is an opponent the Spurs have owned in recent years, including a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS record the last two. Since Leonard came back, all four of the Spurs' wins have been by double digits. They're also a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS on Sundays this season, including an 89-69 win over Utah last week that I was on. Prior to last night's win, Milwaukee had really been struggling, including an outright loss to Utah at home Thursday. They hadn't broken 100 points in any game in 2015 and that's playing mostly at home. Two of the three road games they've played in the New Year were against the Knicks and Sixers, not to mention they faced the Knicks again in London. Those two opponents, plus Minnesota (worst team in the West), is all the Bucks had beaten in January before last night. This is just too high class an opponent and without rest it's bad spot to boot. Look for the home team to roll in this one. 10* San Antonio |
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01-25-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder +4 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 98-108 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma City (3:30 ET): The Thunder and the Cavs are two of the more interesting teams to evaluate in the entire league right now. Typically, both seem undervalued by my own personal power rankings, which take the full season into account and not just the periods where they have their best players in the lineup. However, there can be no denying that Cleveland has been a different (as in much better) team since LeBron James came back as they've won and covered five straight, including a 129-90 destruction of Charlotte Friday night. As for Oklahoma City, they'd won and covered four straight before running into the Atlanta juggernaut Friday. I see this as an even matchup where taking the points is the way to go. When looking at the Cavs' win streak, take note that they've beaten some pretty subpar teams. Not just Charlotte, but Utah and the Lakers as well. They are absolutely NOT going to shoot 53.6% from three-point range (15-27), which is what they did vs. Charlotte, every game. Even with the recent 5-0 ATS run. the Cavs are still only covering 40% of their games for the year, one of the worst marks in the league. They are just 15-17 ATS when favored. Versus opponents that average at least 99 pts per game, they are 7-15 ATS. OKC comes in averaging 109.2 PPG their L5 games and I'm not convinced Cleveland is over its defensive issues. Scott Brooks is not a very good coach, but he has two very good players, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The duo combined for 43 pts against Atlanta, which wasn't enough, but right now the Hawks are a better team than the Cavaliers. I thought the Thunder were a bit overvalued going into that Atlanta game, but what I find interesting is that the books evidently view the Hawks and Cavs as being evenly matched as the line here is the same. I don't think that's right and one key edge to watch is OKC leads the league w/ 46.6 rebounds per game. 8* Oklahoma City |
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01-25-15 | South Florida v. Connecticut -16 | Top | 53-66 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 57 m | Show |
8* Connecticut (12:00 ET): The defending National Champs already have almost as many losses as they did all of last year. While you have to remember that the Huskies went into the Tournament last year as a #7 seed, that team was also 26-8 SU w/ the bulk of its defeats coming in conference. This year's edition is just 10-7 SU so far and conference play isn't even a month old. However, similar to a team I played yday (Florida) and won with, UConn has a lot of close losses on its resume, meaning the record could be a lot better. Three times they've lost by four points or less, twice by a single point. I realize that they're laying a big number today, but this is a USF team they've already beaten by 14 on the road. USF is just not a good team. Starting w/ the loss to UConn, the Bulls have dropped four straight, not to mention 10 of their last 12 as well. Only one of the last eight losses has been by fewer than nine points and last time out they got absolutely crushed by Temple, 73-48. That followed a 17-point loss at home to Tulsa last Saturday. They shot just 30 percent from the floor against Temple and never got closer than 14 points in the second half. Against Tulsa, it was a somewhat similar story. Both opponents shot well from three-point range against the Bulls, something they don't do themselves as they're only 27.4% for the year from behind the arc. This is a team that averages just 59.5 PPG on the road and is 2-9 ATS when facing a team w/ a winning record. They're only 3-8 ATS as dogs. UConn just failed to cover laying almost an identical number its last time out. But they did snap a two-game losing streak w/ a 67-60 win over UCF, which is what mattered there. UCF is also a bit better than USF, so there's some value to be had w/ this line. The Huskies never trailed Thursday, jumping out to a 19-2 lead from the start and 36-18 before things got a little closer. Said Ryan Boatright, "Once you get a team down 18, you've got to step on their neck and put them away." So if UConn gets the big advantage that I think they will in this game, I don't expect any kind of backdoor situation. Remember what I said about USF's last two opponents shooting well from three-point range? Well, UConn made 11 of 20 from behind the arc against UCF. 8* Connecticut |
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01-24-15 | Loyola Marymount v. San Francisco -9.5 | Top | 70-69 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (10:00 ET): What a difference a week makes! Last Saturday I was on Loyola Marymount and they were able to hang within the number against Gonzaga, losing "only" 72-55 as 19.5-point pups. They followed that w/ another cover two nights ago, this one coming in a 65-62 loss at Santa Clara (were +5.5). The Lions have now covered five straight WCC games, but tonight is when I see this little streak of theirs coming to an end. It's a bad spot situationally w/ it being their second road game in three days and it's not like this is a very good team as they have just TWO straight up victories dating all the way back to November 26th, only one them coming in the new year. I'm laying the points here. Wins have been few and far between for the Dons of San Francisco as well, but they did pick up one on Thursday, beating Pepperdine here at home by a score of 71-59 as three-point favorites. It was the Dons' second win in three games having also beaten Portland on the road the previous Thursday. This should be their easiest conference game to date as LMU is just 1-9 SU on the road, averaging only 58.3 points per game. USF is allowing just 62.3 PPG at home. This is an opponent they swept LY, including a 14-point win here at War Memorial Gymnasium. Considering Loyola Marymount shot 52.2 percent Thursday and still lost, that doesn't bode well for them tonight. This is a team that doesn't shoot particularly well and they have trouble defending the three-point line. When the Lions take their act on the road, opponents are shooting over 40% against them from behind the arc. That's bad news when getting to face a team that shoots 50% overall at home and 40% from three-point range. The Dons were even better than those percentages Thursday vs. Pepperdine and should be tonight as well. 8* San Francisco |
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01-24-15 | Detroit Pistons -1.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 86-101 | Loss | -103 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
8* Detroit (7:35 ET): This appears to be a matchup of two teams trending in opposite directions. I played against Milwaukee Thursday night as they lost outright (as 8.5-point chalk) here at home to Utah, 101-99. It was their third loss in the last four games and more importantly for our case, the same against the spread. Now the last two games have seen the combined margin of defeat come by a total of just five points. But the Bucks haven't broken 100 pts in a game yet in 2015 and now face a Detroit squad that's won 12 of 15 since dumping Josh Smith, including a 128-point effort Wednesday night at home vs. Orlando. Two of the Pistons' three losses since parting ways w/ Smith came against red-hot Atlanta. I think what we're seeing is Milwaukee coming back down to Earth and that continues tonight. While a Bucks team that finished last season w/ the worst record in the league surprised early on, Detroit clearly was a disappointment. Only now am I not ashamed to reiterate that this was my darkhorse pick to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. Right now, they are just a game back of the eighth seed and have the seventh best scoring differential in the Conference (despite it still being negative). The Pistons' overall ATS record as a favorite (5-10) is poor, but all of those covers have come post-Smith. The 128 pts scored last game were a season-high, but they've now scored 100+ in 10 of the 15 games w/out Smith. The fact that Detroit has won seven of eight on the road doesn't bode well for a Milwaukee team that's averaging just 93 PPG its L6 at home. When I played against them Thursday, I noted the losing home record overall (now 8-10 SU) and I should also point out once again that the Bucks' only four wins in 2015 have come at the expense of Philadelphia, Minnesota and the Knicks (two), otherwise known as the three worst teams in the league. I now have these teams ranked very close in my overall ratings and with Detroit playing so much better of late, they do deserve to be favored tonight on the road and I expect them to take care of business. 8* Detroit |
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01-24-15 | Florida +3 v. Ole Miss | Top | 71-72 | Win | 100 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
10* Florida (6:00 ET): With eight losses already, the Gators are making it harder and harder to defend their resume. On Tuesday, they lost 79-61 (at home!) to LSU as 11-point favorites. That followed last Saturday's loss, also of the outright variety, in Georgia (73-61, -2). The NCAA Tournament hopes of Billy Donovan's team are now on life support and anything but a very strong finish and run in the SEC Tournament means that they won't be going to the Big Dance. Remember that this program was considered the favorite heading into last year's field of 68 and has made the Elite 8 four years in a row. I still view this as a top 40 team, however, and taking points tonight at Ole Miss seems like a good situation. Donovan is 5-1 ATS as an underdog the L3 seasons and 55-36 ATS in his career at Florida. Mississippi is also off a loss, 69-64 to Georgia as four-point road dogs on Tuesday. Given that UGA was coming off its upset of Florida last weekend, one would have though that the Rebels would have been able to take advantage. They did lead at halftime, but poor shooting (missed 14 of 18 three-pointers) doomed them. While this is a team that won at Arkansas and took #1 Kentucky to overtime, Ole Miss did lose to LSU (just like Florida), not to mention Western Kentucky by seven here at home as well. They've alternated wins and losses going back to December 22nd, so while you might say they're "due" to win here, take note of their 4-6 ATS mark this season as a favorite. They have two close wins over inferior opposition, that being Northern Arizona and Coastal Carolina, with the combined margin of victory in those games being just nine points. I've talked about it before, so I'll just briefly say it again. Four of Florida's losses this year have been by four points or less. The last two are the only ones I'd term "bad" and what's interesting here is that Ole Miss actually has a worse record in SEC play and is just a game better overall. It's my opinion that Florida absolutely would have been favored here had Tuesday's result not occurred and there it should be pointed out that the Gators were outshot 51.9% to 38.3% overall, including 61.5% to 18.8% from distance. I don't see that kind of discrepancy existing tonight. For the season, 31% of the Gators' overall offense comes from the three-point shot, but Tuesday marked their lowest offensive efficiency in any game this year. I smell what will be called an "upset," but really it's not. 10* Florida |
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01-24-15 | UCLA v. Oregon -3 | Top | 64-82 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
10* Oregon (4:00 ET): UCLA has regularly been embarrassing itself this season, most memorably in an 83-44 loss to Kentucky where they trailed 41-7 at the half. (Yes, you read that right). The Bruins' only three wins since December 10th came consecutively, one of them coming in double OT vs. Stanford and the other two against the worst two teams in the Pac 12, Cal and USC. They resumed their losing w/ a 66-55 loss at Oregon State Thursday, a game that wasn't even really that close as the Bruins scored only 19 pts in the first half and trailed by as many 17. Shooting only 30% from the field, UCLA dropped to 11-8 SU overall and Steve Alford is not exactly evoking memories of John Wooden right now in Westwood. With this being the team's third straight road game, it's tough to like their chances Saturday afternoon in Eugene. Oregon has its own problems right now, namely covering spreads. They're just 1-8 ATS their last nine games, but today's pointspread is low enough that a SU win pretty much equals a win at the betting window. In those L10 games, the Ducks have won five times as favorites of -5.5 to -10 points, but failed to cover by slight margins. With a 12-2 SU mark at Matthew Knight Arena, you have to like their chances of victory here against a team that's only 2-7 SU and averaging 59.6 PPG away from home. The Ducks also have revenge here from a 19-point loss in LY's Pac 12 Tournament. Oregon snapped a two-game losing streak w/ Thursday's 85-77 win over USC, a game they shot only 36.2 percent. You have to figure they'll be a bit better offensively today. This is a team that leads its conference w/ an average of 7.7 three pointers made per game and they also shoot above 50% from two-point range. After jumping out to a 16-2 lead over the Trojans right out of the gate, the Ducks would enjoy decided edges in both rebounding and free throw attempts. Getting a national TV game at home on a Saturday afternoon is a big deal and I expect the homecourt edge to be tremendous here. The Ducks are due for a blowout win here and are facing the right opponent. 10* Oregon |
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01-24-15 | Rutgers v. Penn State -6.5 | Top | 51-79 | Win | 101 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
8* Penn State (12:00 ET): Since upsetting Wisconsin, 67-62 at home, back on January 11th, little has gone right for Rutgers. Actually, nothing has. They've lost three straight, including 54-50 to undermanned Michigan Tuesday night at home (Wolverines were w/out leading scorer). They'd at least covered in the first two losses (were -2.5 vs. Michigan), but as double-digit dogs. The Scarlet Knights' only other victory in 2015, ironically enough, came against the team they face Saturday. Now Penn State undeniably has more issues than even Rutgers right now (lost six straight!), but at home, I like the Nittany Lions in this revenge situation. The majority of the games during Penn State's losing streak have been close. The last five have all been by single digits w/ three of them coming by six points or less. The team was actually favored (-2.5) going into Rutgers on January 3rd, but lost 50-46 in a game that featured terrible shooting from both sides. The teams combined to go 30 for 102 from the field, but the difference ended up being Rutgers getting to the free throw line 11 more times and making six of those shots. Here in State College, I do not expect the Scarlet Knights to own such a prohibitive edge from the charity stripe. Penn State is 7-2 SU at home and allowing just 61.2 PPG, so they're the more likely of the two to repeat its strong defensive performance from the first matchup. Especially since Rutgers is averaging just 59.2 PPG on the road. While they've struggled to cover games as favorites, the Nittany Lions are a perfect 17-0 straight up as home chalk in the -6.5 to -9 range, at the same time going 14-3 against the spread in such contests. All three of Rutgers' Big 10 road games thus far have ended in losses of eight points or greater. 8* Penn State |
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01-23-15 | Houston Rockets v. Phoenix Suns -2 | Top | 113-111 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
8* Phoenix (9:05 ET): The Suns picked up a big win here at home Wednesday night, beating Portland 118-113. It was their fourth win in a row, all at home, and this is a really key stretch for them as they get set to go through a gauntlet of good teams. Houston is next up on the list and they enter this game off their second blowout loss at the hands of Golden State in the last week. While Phoenix does currently have a nice 3-game cushion over Oklahoma City in the race for the last playoff spot in the West, they can't afford to be dropping many games in this loaded Conference, especially here at home. I'll lay the small number. The Suns are third in the NBA in scoring at 107.5 PPG. It's not too often that Houston faces a team more prolific on offense than themselves, but that will be the case here. One key for tonight will be getting points off turnovers. The Rockets give it away 17.5 times per game, one of the worst marks in the league, and Phoenix comes in averaging 19.4 PPG off TO's for one of the league's better marks. Homecourt advantage is also huge considering Phoenix has won seven straight times at home and they did lead Portland by as many as 25 points Wednesday night. The Suns, who are 35-1 SU under HC Jeff Hornacek when shooting 50% or better, should be able to get to that number here as Houston has been giving up some big point totals lately. It's pretty incredible that despite having Dwight Howard in the middle, the Rockets have been outrebounded in five straight games while at the same time allowing 120+ points three times. Now facing Golden State twice will make any team's numbers look ugly, but this is also a team that's lost recently on the road to Orlando. This season, in games where the total is 210 pts or higher, the Rockets are 0-3 SU and ATS. I like the small number, which is where the line should be based on my own personal power rankings, as the Suns are 4-1 SU/ATS this season as a home favorite of three points or less. 8* Phoenix |
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01-23-15 | Boston Celtics v. Denver Nuggets -8.5 | Top | 100-99 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
8* Denver (9:05 ET): Brutal spot for the Celtics here, who come off a shocking outright upset over Portland last night, and now have to play the second of back to back road games in the high altitude of Denver. Boston, who had lost three in a row and 8 of 10 going into last night's game, surprised me by winning in Portland (in the interest of full disclosure, I was on the Blazers). In retrospect, it probably did help that the Blazers had just learned they would be w/out All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge for 6-8 weeks. But the Celtics still trailed by five heading into the fourth quarter and needed a last second three-pointer from Evan Turner to "steal" the win. With only five road wins all season, Boston won't be as fortunate tonight. Denver, meanwhile, could really use a win. They've lost four in a row, most recently at home to San Antonio on Tuesday. They've also played Dallas and Golden State during this stretch, so the drop in class here is welcome. For the sake of reference, Boston lost by 31 in last year's visit to the Pepsi Center and before last night had not won a non-conference road game in nearly a year. The Celtics are also 0-5 SU this season following a SU dog win. They also haven't won back to back games period in over a month. Playing two road games in as many days does them no favors here, and there's no doubt in mind that they will lose this game. The only question then surrounds the Nuggets' ability to cover the spread. Obviously, there chances of doing so are hampered somewhat if Kenneth Faried (flu) doesn't play, but be aware that Danilo Gallinari is going to be back in the lineup. I expect Denver to be able to put up a big point total here as Boston allowing only 89 pts last night was pretty uncharacteristic given that in the previous five games they'd allowed an average of more than 106 PPG. Situationally, this shapes up to be a blowout for the home team. 8* Denver |
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01-23-15 | Valparaiso +6 v. Wisconsin Green Bay | Top | 50-51 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
10* Valparaiso (9:00 ET): Three teams are currently tied for first place in the Horizon League at 5-1. Cleveland State is one and these are the other two. Coming into the year, Green Bay was the consensus pick to take home the conference crown, and while they've won seven of their last eight, Valpo is actually the slightly hotter team w/ the better record. The Crusaders come into this game on a 10-1 SU tear (only loss coming at Oakland) and are 18-3 SU on the season. They already own a victory over Cleveland State, 58-56 at home, a game they did not cover though as six-point favorites. As that final score shows, there simply isn't a whole lot of difference between the top three in the Horizon, so I'll grab the generous number here. Valparaiso's only two losses out of conference came against Missouri and New Mexico. Green Bay, whose only Horizon League loss also came in Oakland (69-66), also lost to UC Irvine (good team), Wisconsin (obviously, a good team). But they have one ugly showing, a 72-48 loss at Georgia State. They somewhat made up for that though by upsetting Miami (FL) their next time out. While Valpo's loss at Oakland looks worse because of the final score, take note that was actually an overtime game where they got outscored 18-4 in the extra period. Again, I'll reiterate that what I see here is a couple of evenly matched teams and the spread doesn't really reflect that. Tuesday at Youngstown State, the Crusaders shot a lights out 54.9 percent from the floor, including 10 of 16 from three-point range. This is now the third time this season that they have won at least five straight games. Considering they've won five of their past six "true" road games, the last two of which have come by double digits in the past week, this is a team that won't be intimidated by being the visitors tonight. Green Bay has won nine straight at home, including 78-55 over UIC on Tuesday, but the Phoenix also are a surprisingly poor 3-3 SU when priced as a home favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range the last three seasons. Take the points. 10* Valparaiso |
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01-23-15 | Charlotte Hornets +10 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 90-129 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (7:35 ET): Cleveland is rolling right now w/ four straight wins and covers, but this looks to be a bit of an overlay to me against a Charlotte team that has also played well of late. The Hornets, at one point left for dead even in the awful Eastern Conference, have won eight of their last nine games, the only loss coming by five points at San Antonio. The whole bringing in Lance Stephenson thing clearly was a bust, but what's working right now for Steve Clifford's team is that - shades of last season - they are playing outstanding defense. Over the L5 games, opponents are averaging just 81.4 PPG. In a game that may not feature as much scoring as you might think, taking the big number is the way to go. LeBron James and company have played arguably their two best games of the season this week, beating Chicago and Utah both by 14 point margins. Iman Shumpert is expected to make his Cavs debut tonight, giving the team such much needed added depth. But let's not forget that Charlotte has also gotten healthier w/ the returns of Kemba Walker and Al Jefferson. They have hung tough w/ Cleveland both times they've played this season, losing by only 13 total points. The Hornets only two losses in 2015 have been by a combined nine points. The fact that Charlotte was able to win a game where they shot only 33.8% from the floor should mean something. That's what they did Wednesday vs. Miami and it also marked the third straight game where they held an opponent to 80 points or less. Only two of the Hornets' previous 10 opponents have shot better than 40 percent from the field. Now, keeping this Cleveland offense in check will obviously be a tall order. I also realize that the Cavs were able to beat the Hornets the last time despite not having James in the lineup. But I'm also banking on the Hornets shooting better than they did vs. the Heat and w/ their defense I feel that should be enough to keep this one within the number. 8* Charlotte |
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01-23-15 | Detroit +6.5 v. Cleveland State | Top | 66-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
10* Detroit (7:00 ET): Cleveland State is one of three teams currently tied for first place in the Horizon League and the two others, Valapariso & Wisc Green Bay, play each other tonight. I've previously discussed how the Vikings going 3-0 ATS against Louisville, Virginia & VCU was likely to serve them well in conference play & it has w/ them winning five of six games, the lone loss coming by at Valpo. But tonight they're likely to receive a test from a Detroit squad that has won four of its last five, the only loss coming to one of the first place teams (Green Bay). The Titans stepped out of conference earlier this week and delivered a nice outright win over Northeastern, 81-69 as 5.5-pt dogs, and they look like a solid value plus the points again here. This is a double revenge spot as well for Detroit. They lost by eight and 10 points in the two games vs. Cleveland State last year after splitting the year before (home team won both times). Both teams were insanely hot in LY's matchup in Detroit w/ CSU making nearly 60% of their shots. Meanwhile, in their visit to Cleveland, the Titans were only 39.4% from the field. One good thing for the road team in this one is that they are shooting 38.4% from three-point range. Detroit is actually averageing more points per game than CSU this year, but the key will be on the defensive end as the Vikings allow just 61 PPG for the year (55.7 at home) while Detroit is at 73.2 PPG on the road (68.2 overall). The Titans did lose six games in a row at one point this season, but like Cleveland State, have hung tough with some heavyweights. They covered against both Michigan & Wichita State and have four losses so far by six points or less. Cleveland State, who is an awful 307th nationally in rebounding, has seen four of its last six victories come by a margin of five points or less. Provided the Titans shoot the ball relatively well, they should absolutely be able to keep pace in this one and have a chance at pulling the outright upset. 10* Detroit |
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01-22-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. Los Angeles Clippers -11.5 | Top | 84-123 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): The Nets are not a very good team. Sure, they won last night in Sacramento and are currently tied for seventh place in a weak Eastern Conference. But they're also six games below .500 and averaging just 95.7 PPG. Before pulling off the upset Wednesday, they had dropped eight of nine, only managing a win in a home and home split w/ Washington (where, ironically, the road team won both games). At 1-6 ATS this season when off a SU win as a dog, the team's chances for success tonight seem pretty slim as they have to visit the Clippers, a team that I have ranked in the top three of my latest NBA Power Rankings and is well rested. This should be blowout city for Lob City tonight. The Clips come in averaging a healthy 106.7 points per game, which trails only Dallas and Phoenix. Despite having won two-thirds of their games this season, LA is only sixth in the loaded Western Conference, so taking advantage of "easy wins" such as this becomes imperative. They have been off for two days since beating Boston 102-93 Monday, a game they led by as many as 23 points. It was their 8th win the last 11 games and while they've failed to cover four of their last five, I don't see them having that problem here in nationally televised affair. Brooklyn also very nearly blew a 23-point lead its last time out, that being last night in Sacramento. They still won by three after scoring over one-third of their total points in the first quarter. PG Deron Williams still isn't playing because of fractured rib cartilage and Brook Lopez has lost his starting spot amidst trade rumors. I see a team that lost by double digits, at home, to two other top Western Conference teams recently (Houston, Memphis) and wonder how they'll keep pace here. Especially since this is the second night of back to backs, a scenario that has seen the Nets average just 90.2 PPG. Over the L10 games, they're averaging just 92.0 PPG and defensively I don't see them having an answer for the likes of Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, the latter of whom is shooting an insane 72.1% for the season. 10* LA Clippers |