Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-05-22 | Clemson -23 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 44 h 27 m | Show |
#235 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Clemson -23 over Georgia Tech, Monday at 8 PM ET - The Ga Tech offense will do next to nothing in this game in our opinion. The Jackets put up only 8 points in their meeting last year and have averaged 11 PPG over the last 6 meetings. Clemson will have one of the top defensive teams in the nation and finished 3rd nationally last year allowing just 4.3 YPP. We believe there is a huge mismatch up front with Clemson’s defensive line vs Georgia Tech’s offensive front. The Tigers should have one of the top front 7 in the nation defensively while the Yellow Jackets OLine has only 37 career starts ranking them 116th in that category. GT is very inexperienced ranking 121st in returning production after winning just 3 games last year and getting outgained by 1.0 YPP on the season. While GT only put up 8 points in last year’s meeting, they covered because the Clemson offense took a huge step back and only scored 14 points in that game. Prior to last year the Tigers won the previous 3 meetings by 66, 38, and 28 points. We look for the Tiger offense to be much improved this season. QB Uiagalelei had on off season last year but he’s lost a bunch of weight and we’re hearing he's been very good in camp. He’ll be operating behind an top notch offensive line with 4 starters back with 6 of his top pass catchers back and his top RB Shipley. We look for a huge improvement on that side of the ball for the Tigers. GT head coach Collins is in desperation mode after a 9-25 SU recodrhis first 3 seasons and canned a number of assistants. Because of that the GT coaching staff has 8 new coaches which means a learning curve early in the season. After a disappointing season, the Tigers have a chip on their shoulders and they roll in this game. |
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09-04-22 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 RUNS Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox, 2:10PM ET - The Twins were just 1-hit by Dylan Cease and the White Sox and Saturday and we are betting they bounce back with a much better day at the plate Sunday. The White Sox pounded out 13 hits and 13 runs against the Twins yesterday. On Sunday the pitching match-up has Bundy for the Twins taking the hill to face Giolito for the Sox. Neither pitcher has overwhelming numbers on the season with Bundy toting a 4.53 ERA and 1.24 WHIP while Giolito has an ERA of 5.27 and a 1.50 WHIP. Giolito has been bad of late with 17 earned runs allowed in hit last four starts or 21.2 innings of work. In each teams last ten games they have averaged 9.40 runs which will get us the cash in this one. On the season these are two of the better hitting teams in baseball when facing right-handed pitchers. The Sox own the 4th best team average for the year against righties hitting .257. Minnesota isn’t far behind hitting .250 as a team against righties which is 8th best in the Bigs. In the ten meetings between these two teams this season they have scored 9 or more runs eight times. The bet here is OVER! |
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09-03-22 | Astros v. Angels UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 8 Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels, 9 PM ET - On the season the Astros are one of the higher scoring teams in baseball with 597 runs on the year in 4397 at bats which ranks 9th best. In their last eleven games though they have managed to score only 41 runs and are hitting .241 as a team. Today the Astros will have a tough time putting up runs against Angels starting pitcher Shohei Ohtani who has a 2.67 ERA and 1.06 WHIP on the season. In Ohtani’s last ten starts he is allowing just 1.60 Earned runs and an average of 5 hits per game. In two games against the Astros this season Ohtani has pitched 12 innings, just 1 earned run on 5 total hits and struck out 12 in each game. The Angels are one of the lowest scoring teams in baseball with 502 total runs in 132 games. In their last 27 games the Angels are averaging just 3.44 runs per game while hitting .223 as a team. The Astros will send Luis Garcia to the mound today and even though he doesn’t have great overall number, he is trending in the right direction with a better XERA and XFIP. Garcia doesn’t have to be great in this game to shutout the poor hitting Angels. The play here is UNDER 8 runs. |
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09-03-22 | Florida Atlantic -4 v. Ohio | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
#191 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida Atlantic -4 over Ohio U, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET - FAU looked really good in their opening 43-13 win vs Charlotte last weekend. Their offense was extremely balanced with 264 yards passing and 212 yards rushing outgaining Charlotte by more than 200 total yards. The score could have been worse as FAU led 33-7 very early in the 2nd half and decided to sit a number of key players getting them rested for this match up. Owl QB Perry, former starter for the Miami Hurricanes, looked very sharp operating behind an offensive line that has a combined 125 career starts which ranks them as the 9th most experienced line in college football. The offense was without starting RB Ford, who has over 2000 career yards and averages 6.3 YPC, but he is expected back this week. This offense should continue their hot start vs an Ohio defense that finished outside the top 100 in total defense and rush defense. Can the Bobcat offense keep up? We don’t think so. They return QB Rourke but he didn’t do much through the air last year with Ohio ranking 105th nationally in passing YPG. So that means the Bobcats will have to be very successful running the ball to stay in this game but they are facing a very good FAU DLine that returns everyone and allowed just 2.7 YPC last week vs Charlotte. Owl head coach Willie Taggart has coached at a very high level as he was the head man at Oregon & Florida State. He has brought in some high level transfers as well including 5 players who used to play for him at FSU. Ohio was 3-9 last season and they are just 1-7 ATS the last 3 seasons as a home underdog and they are just 5-9 SU at home since 2020. Florida Atlantic is the much more talented team here and we think they could very well be a surprise team in 2022. We’ll lay the points. |
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09-02-22 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 0-8 | Push | 0 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 runs Chicago Cubs @ St Louis Cardinals, 8:15 PM ET - This play sets up nicely for a higher scoring game based on current pitching and hitting trends. The Cardinals are 4th in total runs produced this season with 644 in 131 games. In the last 30-days nobody in baseball has scored more than the Cards who have 167 runs in 28 games or nearly 6 runs per game. St Louis is hitting .279 as a team with an .858 OPS which are also the best numbers in the Majors for that same 30-day span. The Cardinals should feast on Cubs starter Adrian Sampson who is 1-4 on the season with a 3.97 ERA and an XERA of 4.48. Sampson has really struggled in his last two starts giving up 6 earned runs on 13 hits in just 6.2 total innings of work. One of those outings was against this same St Louis team that roughed him up for 5 earned runs on 8 hits in a Cards 13-3 win. The Cubs will put up a few runs of their own in this match-up. The Cubs are below average in runs/9 innings on the season at 4.17 (23rd) but they should put up some runs in this game. The Cubs just faced the Cardinals starter Jordan Montgomery on August 22nd so they have a much better idea of what he brings to the mound. Montgomery is 7-3 on the season overall (started 3-3 with NY) with a 3.28 ERA. In his last start, Montgomery gave up 5 earned runs on 8 hits against the Braves. In their last ten games the Cubs and their opponents have averaged 9.60 runs per game. Chicago has hit lefties well in their last ten with a .265 average and 4.76 runs/9 innings. The same can be said for the Cardinals games which have averaged 10.30 runs per 9/innings with St Louis hitting .272 against righties and putting up an average of 5.02 runs/9. We expect lots of runs in this game and an Over winner early on. |
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09-01-22 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks +123 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 123 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Arizona Diamondbacks (+123) over Milwaukee Brewers, 9:40 PM ET - The situation clearly favors the D’Backs here who are at home and coming off a loss while the Brewers have to travel and are off a win. Both teams are playing well right now with each winning 5 of their last six games. Arizona’s offense has been better of late with a .256 team batting average in their last 13 games while producing an average of 5.92 runs per game. Milwaukee is hitting .232 as a team in their last 14 games and scoring 4.85 runs per game. Merrill Kelly is pitching lights out right now. In his last seven starts he is 2-0 with 46 K’s in 47.1 innings pitched and a 2.28ERA and .95 WHIP. In his last 15 games his ERA is 2.55 and his WHIP is still under 1.00. In comparison Brandon Woodruff's numbers are very good but slightly higher than Kelly’s in his last 7 and 15 games. Arizona is coming off an 18-2 drubbing by the Phillies last night and should be highly motivated after that embarrassing loss. We like the D'Backs as a home dog to bounce back here. |
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09-01-22 | Penn State v. Purdue OVER 52.5 | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 52.5 Penn State @ Purdue – Thursday Sept 1 8 PM ET - These two haven’t met since 2019 – Penn State has won 8 straight going back to 2006. 15-3-1 SU since 1951. FINISH TO LAST YEAR - Penn State finished last season with a Bowl loss to Arkansas (10-24). Purdue off a Bowl win over Tennessee 48-45. QUARTERBACK PLAY - Both teams have experience at the QB position with 6th year players. Aidan O’Connell for Purdue completed over 71% of his attempts last year (did throw 11 INT’s). He threw for over 370 yards 6 times last year including a pair of 500+ yard performances. Sean Clifford will be the Nittany Lions starter this season. Clifford has a chance to finish his PSU career as the #1 QB in passing yards, TD’, pass attempts and completions. Penn State also has RB Lee back and a talented WR corps but must replace the O-line. Penn State averaged 23.9PPG but should also score against the Boilermakers who also have misleading defensive numbers from a year ago. PURDUE DEFENSE MISLEADING STATS FROM LAST YEAR (Similar schedule to PSU) - Purdue allowed 29 or more points in the second half of the season to Michigan State, Ohio State and Tennessee. PURDUE OFFENSE IS GOING TO SCORE: Purdue was 22nd in total yards per game offensively (440.3YPG) and averaged 29.1PPG. PENN STATE DEFENSE OVER-RATED: The Lions must replace 7 of last year's top 11 tacklers from their defense that allowed just 17.3PPG (6th best) and their defensive coordinator. PSU’s defensive numbers are a bit misleading based on their schedule. The Lions faced 5 teams that ranked 107th or worse in total offense last season. KEY OFFENSIVE NUMBERS FOR BOTH: Both teams ranked top 31 in 3rd down conversions a year ago, so both have the ability to keep their offenses on the field. Purdue was 22nd in plays per game at 76.2, Penn State was 29th at 74.1. Purdue 21-14-2 OVER at home since 2016. Purdue 67% returning production – Penn State 65% |
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08-31-22 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 18-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 9 runs Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40 PM ET - In the matchup last night these two teams pounded out 21 total hits and put up 15 runs. The game could have been even higher scoring as they stranded 22 total base runners. The D’Back hitters are really seeing the ball right now as this offense has put up double-digit runs in 3 of their last four games and 7+ in 6 of their last nine games. Philadelphia is 6th on the season in total runs scored with 603 and own the 9th best team batting average and are 8th in OPS. The Phillies own the 4th best average when facing left-handed pitchers. Neither starting pitcher is great here with Bailey Falter getting the start for the Phillies and Tommy Henry for the D’Backs. Henry is 3-2 in 5 starts this season with a 3.25 ERA but his expected ERA is much higher at 5.09. Falter is 2-3 on the year with a 4.41 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He’s allowed 5 or more hits in 6 of his last seven starts. Arizona is hitting .288 as a team against lefties in their last ten games and scoring 9.77 runs per 9 innings. Philadelphia is hitting .275 their last ten against a left-handed pitcher scoring 5.48 runs/9 innings. With a pair of average pitchers and two hot hitting teams we expect plenty of runs in this one. |
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08-30-22 | Rays v. Marlins UNDER 6.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
#975/976 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 6.5 Runs – Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Miami’s offense has been brutal. Since the All Star Break they have the lowest batting average in MLB at .211 and have scored just 94 total runs in 37 games (2.5 RPG). The next lowest run total in the Majors since the break in Washington with 110 runs so Miami has by far the worst run production since mid July. They face one of the top pitchers in MLB tonight with TB sending McClanahan to the hill. He has an ERA of just 2.20, opponents have a batting average of only .184 vs McClanahan and he has the lowest xFIP on the board today at 2.27. He has a lifetime ERA of 0.82 vs Miami and his one start this year vs the Marlins didn’t allow a run. Miami has the worst batting average in MLB vs left handers at .199 and they average just 2.4 RPG on the season vs south paws. The Marlins will send lefty Luzardo to start tonight and he has been pitching very well with an ERA of 2.67 in his 5 starts this month. He has not faced TB this season giving him a leg up in this match up. The Rays offense has been below average all season ranking 20th or lower in batting average, RPG, OPS and HR’s. Versus left handers on the road this season Tampa is hitting .219 and averaging 3.6 RPG. We don’t anticipate either offense doing much in this game and we’ll side with the Under in this game. |
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08-29-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
#903 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Miami Marlins, Monday at 6:40 PM ET - The Dodgers have taken 2 of the first 3 in this series and this one sets up very nicely for them to pick up a win. LA’s one loss in this series was a 2-1 setback vs one of MLB’s top pitchers, Sandy Alcantara. In the other 2 games, LA has outscored Miami 18-7 and they’ve outhit the Marlins 30 to 10 in those 2 games. Not surprising as the Dodgers have the highest batting average and most runs scored in MLB this season. Meanwhile, since the All Star Break the Miami offense has been brutal. They rank dead last in batting average at .212 and they’ve only scored 92 runs (2.5 RPG) which is by far the worst in the Majors over that time period (Washington has scored 110 runs which ranks them 29th post All Star). Now we have a team that can’t hit or score runs facing Dodger pitcher Gonsolin who has allowed the lowest batting average in MLB this year at .169! He has allowed 2 ER’s or less in 20 of his 23 starts this season and he’s backed by one of the top bullpens in baseball. Just a terrible match up for a light hitting Miami team. Miami starter Lopez has tailed off drastically in the 2nd half of the season and the LA hitters should continue to stay hot tonight. Lopez was very good prior to the break with an ERA of 2.66, however since then he has started 7 games with an ERA of 6.00. His only really solid start in the 2nd half of the season was vs Oakland who is one of the worst hitting teams in MLB. The bullpen has also fallen off as of late with an ERA of almost 6.00 their last 10 outings so LA should have a chance to put some really solid offensive numbers on the board. The way Miami’s offense is playing the Dodgers may not need many runs to cover the -1.5. Take LA on the run line tonight. |
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08-28-22 | Pirates v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -124 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
#956 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - The Phillies have dominated this series with a perfect 6-0 record this year including a 6-0 win last night. The average score of the 6 games this season is Phillies 5.8 – Pirates 2.7. Going back further, the Phillies have won 11 of the last 13 meetings in Philadelphia and 73% of those wins have come by 2+ runs. The Pirates have been heading downhill for a while now losing 7 straight and 24 of their last 31 games. They are just 18-41 this year vs teams with a winning record. Since the All Star Break they rank dead last in MLB in batting average at .214 and 29th in OPS. They are averaging just 2.1 RPG during their current 7 game losing streak. They face Philly starter Syndergaard who has been on a nice run allowing 3 ER’s or less in 7 of his last 8 starts (4 with Angels and 4 with Philadelphia). The Phillies have been playing great baseball winning 22 of their last 31 games. Their offense ranks in the top 10 in RPG, batting average, and OPS and since the All Star Break they have a batting average of .274 which is 3rd best in MLB during that stretch. They have scored at least 6 runs in 5 of their last 7 games. They got a boost offensively as well with Bryce Harper rejoining the line up after a stint on the DL. The Phillies should have another big day offensively facing Pittsburgh starter Contreras who is 1-3 in last 4 starts with an ERA of 6.10. When he exits the Pittsburgh bullpen is among the worst in baseball ranking dead last in ER’s allowed and hits allowed this season. Phillies keep rolling with another easy win this afternoon. |
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08-27-22 | Bears v. Browns -5 | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 30 m | Show |
#126 ASA NFLX TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Browns -5 over Chicago Bears, Saturday at 7 PM ET - New Chicago head coach Eberflus announced this week that they will play their starters for much of the first half. What happened after he announced that? The line went from Cleveland -4 up to -5 and -5.5. That’s because the Browns also plan on playing their starters for some of the first half including QB Brissett who has yet to play in the preseason. Browns head coach Stefanski said he wants to get Brissett some extended time with the starters so he is ready when the season rolls around in a few weeks. Our view on this game is if both sets of starters play extensively in the first half – big edge Cleveland. After the break, who has the advantage in the 2nd half? Cleveland as well as they are deeper and have the better QB rotation with Dobbs and Rosen. The Bears are 2-0 in the preseason but their offensive numbers have been poor averaging just 4.2 yards per play. That’ll be a problem in this game vs a deep Cleveland defense that ranked 3rd in the NFL last year and in 2 preseason games they’ve allowed just 4.5 YPP. The Browns are 1-1 in the preseason but they’ve outgained both of their opponents by nearly a full 1.0 YPP. Their loss was here at home last week when the Eagles scored a TD late in the 4th quarter to pick up a 21-20 win. The Browns are at home again this week off that tough loss while Chicago is on the road for the 2nd straight game after traveling to Seattle last week. The Bears will really struggle offensively in this game and we like Cleveland to win by a TD+ |
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08-27-22 | Pirates v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
#902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-135) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 6 PM ET - The Phillies have dominated this series with a perfect 5-0 record this year including a 7-4 win last night. The average score of the 5 games this season is Phillies 5.8 – Pirates 3.2. Going back further, the Phillies have won 10 of the last 12 meetings in Philadelphia and 70% of those wins have come by 2+ runs. The Pirates have been heading downhill for a while now losing 6 straight and 23 of their last 30 games. They are just 18-40 this year vs teams with a winning record. Since the All Star Break they rank dead last in MLB in batting average at .214 and 29th in OPS. They are averaging just 2.3 RPG during their current 6 game losing streak. They face Philly starter Gibson who has been on a nice run allowing 3 ER’s or less in 7 of his last 8 starts. The Phillies have been playing great baseball winning 21 of their last 30 games. Their offense ranks in the top 10 in RPG, batting average, and OPS and since the All Star Break they have a batting average of .274 which is 3rd best in MLB during that stretch. They have scored at least 7 runs in 4 of their last 6 games. They got a boost offensive as well with Bryce Harper rejoining the line up after a stint on the DL. The Phillies should have another big day offensively facing Pittsburgh starter Beede who was a reliever for much of the season. Since joining the starting rotation earlier this month, Beede is winless in 4 starts with an ERA of 7.50. When he exits the Pittsburgh bullpen is among the worst in baseball ranking dead last in ER’s allowed and hits allowed this season. Phillies keep rolling with another easy win tonight. |
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08-27-22 | Northwestern v. Nebraska UNDER 50.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 35 m | Show |
#299/300 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 50.5 Points – Northwestern vs Nebraska @ Dublin, Ireland, Saturday at 12:30 PM ET - We expect the defenses to control this opener in Ireland. Nebraska made a change at offensive coordinator with Mark Whipple coming in from Pitt. They also have a new QB in Texas transfer Casey Thompson. While we expect the offense to look solid as the year progresses, early in the season will be an adjustment learning the new system. Whipple had 1st round pick Kenny Pickett as his QB at Pitt which helped open things up as he watched the offense improve by nearly 100 YPG last season compared to their 2020 numbers. Prior to Pickett taking off, the Pitt offense averaged just 331 YPG their previous 3 seasons combined. Our word is Whipple wants to run the ball quite a bit if possible and his mantra has been “don’t lose the game with mistakes” especially early in the season. That tells us he will be fairly conservative. We expect NW’s offense to struggle as they averaged just 16 PPG last year which ranked them 125th nationally. They were held to 14 points or less in 7 of their 9 Big 10 games. Their QB Hilinski started 5 games last year but wasn’t great completing just 54% of his passes with 3 TD’s and 4 interceptions on the season. Nebraska’s defense held NW to 7 points last year and was solid ranking 36th nationally holding their opponents to 5.2 YPP. We expect them to be better this year. The NW defense was bad last year. They allowed 6.3 YPP after giving up just 4.8 YPP the year prior. In fact, 3 of the 4 years prior to last season, the Wildcat defense ranked in the top 25 nationally in YPP allowed. Head coach Fitzgerald is a great defensive coach and we expect a big jump from that unit this year. NW will attempt to make this a slow paced, grind it out game. That’s what we anticipate with points hard to come by. Play the Under. |
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08-26-22 | Guardians -109 v. Mariners | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
#973 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Guardians -110 over Seattle Mariners, Friday at 10:10 PM ET - Seattle took the first game of the series 3-1 despite getting outhit 6 to 4 by the Guardians. The M’s were a bit lucky to get to 3 runs on just 4 hits as all their runs came on one HR in the 1st inning. Tonight’s match up features 2 starting pitchers heading in opposite directions. Cleveland starter Bieber has an ERA of just 1.62 over his last 5 starts and his lifetime ERA vs Seattle is a solid 3.75. He’s also been better on the road this year with an ERA of 3.00 and the Guardians have won 10 of his 14 road starts this season. Seattle starter Gilbert has not recorded a win since July 5th and over his last 8 starts he has an ERA of 5.62. The Mariners have lost 5 of his last 6 starts and Gilbert’s home ERA is nearly a full run higher than his road ERA at 4.04. Cleveland’s offense ranks higher in RPG, OPS, and batting average while striking out the least in MLB at just 7 per 9 innings. Seattle’s offense has been poor since the All Star break ranking 28th in batting average at .216 ahead of only Pittsburgh and Miami. That could spell trouble vs a Cleveland pitching staff that has really pitched well as of late allowing an average of just 2.6 RPG over their last 10. Prior to their somewhat lucky win last night, Seattle had lost 3 of their previous 5 games and while that may not seem like a big deal, those games were vs Washington & Oakland who have the 2 worst records in MLB. Cleveland gets the win tonight. |
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08-26-22 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers, Friday at 8 PM ET - These two just played a higher scoring series last week but those numbers were very deceiving as we has strong winds blowing out at Wrigley for 2 of those games. We know what happens when the wind blows out at Wrigley! The one game where the wind was not in play last week was a 5-2 Milwaukee win. The fact is, even with the other 2 games factored in (scores of 8-7 and 6-5) these 2 teams are simply bad right now offensively. Over the last 10 games Milwaukee is hitting .173 and Chicago is hitting .199. Over the last month Milwaukee’s bats rank 28th in batting average and the Cubs check in at 22nd. Both struggling offenses are facing pitchers performing at a high level right now. Chicago’s starter Steele has been nearly unhittable allowing 1 ER or fewer in 7 of his last 9 starting including not allowing a single ER in 4 of those starts. One of those starts was last week vs Milwaukee where he did not allow an ER in 6 innings of work. Not overly surprising as he is pitching lights out and the Brewers own the 2nd worst batting average in MLB vs lefties. Milwaukee starter Peralta has made 4 starts since returning from the DL and allowed just 7 ER’s combined in those outings. He faced the Cubs last week and gave up 2 ER’s in 6 innings pitched. Peralta’s overall ERA is 4.08 but he’s pitched much better than that with an xERA of 3.23 and a FIP of 3.07. Neither pitcher allows many HR’s with Peralta giving up just 4 this season in 57+ innings and Steele allowing only 7 round trippers in 113+ innings. We anticipate a low scoring game between these division rivals and we like the Under. |
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08-25-22 | White Sox v. Orioles OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
#911/912 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Both of the first 2 games in this series landed directly on 8 total runs but we expect this one to eclipse that number. In game 1 the O’s won 5-3 and the Sox won by the same score in game 2. Chicago alone has left 23 runners on base the last 2 games and the 2 teams have combined to leave 33 on base so far in this series. The 2 have combined to put 50 runners on base in the first 2 games of the series yet scored just 16 total runs. In other words, both teams have had LOTS of opportunities to score many more runs but the bounce of the ball has been rather unlucky. We say that changes tonight. Lance Lynn pitches for the White Sox and his road ERA is a hefty 6.39 and he has allowed 41 hits in just 31 innings of work away from home. He’s faced Baltimore once this season and allowed 5 ER’s in 6.2 IP. The Orioles will start Lyles who has an ERA of 4.61 on the season but his xERA is higher at 4.82. He’s also allowing opponents to hit .282 on the season which is the 2nd highest BA allowed of any pitcher on the board today. His lifetime ERA vs the White Sox is 5.56 in 6 appearances. We should also see some runs on the back end of this game as both bullpens have been struggling. The Sox bullpen ERA over the last 10 games is 6.55 and Baltimore sits at 4.28. Look for both teams to actually get some hits with runners on base today and this one rolls over 8 Runs. |
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08-24-22 | Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 RUNS St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs, 8 PM ET - These two teams split a double-header yesterday with one low scoring game and then producing 16 runs in the night cap. The Cubs won the day game 2-0 but St Louis had plenty of chances to score runs but they went 0-10 with runners in scoring position. Both pitching staffs allowed just 10 total hits in the game, but the Cubs were forced to use up their bullpen. In Game two the Cardinals broke open with 16 hits and cruised to a 13-3 win. We know the Cardinals are going to score runs here. They are hitting .310 as a team with 18 home runs and averaged 7 runs per game over their last ten games. In their last 15 games they have produced 95 total runs which is the most in the Major League over the last 15-days. St Louis should feast on Cubs pitcher Luke Farrell making his 2022 debut. Farrell didn’t “fare” well in Triple a with a 5.03 ERA in 11 starts. The Cubs will also contribute to this Over with this being the 4th time seeing Cardinal’s starter Miles Mikolas. Mikolas has a 4.15 ERA versus the Cubs this season and has allowed 20 hits in 17.1 innings of work. In the last 15-days the Cubs have scored 63 total runs or 4.2 runs per game. We expect plenty of runs in this one to push it well past the 8.5 runs. |
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08-23-22 | Mets v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
#919/920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – NY Mets vs NY Yankees, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We realize the Yankees have really been struggling offensively but we’ve seen some signs of life as of late. Yesterday they put up 4 runs in 6.2 innings on Mets ace Max Scherzer. They have now put up 4 runs in each of their last 2 games after doing so just once their previous 11 games. Still, the Yanks rank 2nd in MLB in scoring, 3rd in OPS, and 1st in HR’s on the season. They will be facing Walker on the mound for the Mets who has been struggling with back problems as of late and it’s showing in his performance. Over his last 5 starts Walker’s is almost 7.00 and he’s allowed 35 baserunners in 20 innings. The Mets offense also is among the best in MLB for the season ranking in the top 7 in RPG, OPS, and batting average. They are averaging 5.3 RPG this season vs right handers including 6 RPG over their last 10. Yankee pitcher Montas has been a disaster since coming over from Oakland allowing 14 ER’s in 14 innings pitched. He’s also allowed 24 baserunners during that 3 game stretch. The wind is blowing out tonight 5-10 MPH at Yankee Stadium and we look for double digit runs. Take the Over. |
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08-22-22 | Brewers v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
#958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Milwaukee Brewers, Monday at 10:10 PM ET - These 2 teams met in Milwaukee last week and split a 4 game series. We were on the Dodgers -1.5 vs Brewers and starting pitcher Lauer in that series lost with LA winning 2-1. The Brewers scored a late run in the bottom of the 8th to cover that run line but had only 4 hits in the process. The struggles continue at the plate for Milwaukee and now with LA at home and left hander Urias on the mound, we like them on the run line again tonight. The Brewers are hitting just .201 in the month of August which is the worst mark in MLB. Versus left handers, they are hitting .217 on the year which ranks them 29th out of 30 teams. This is a bad match up for a struggling offense facing Urias who is pitching at the top of his game right now. He faced Milwaukee last week and did not allow a run in 5 innings of work with the Dodgers winning 4-0. Urias has allowed just 3 ER’s in his last 31 innings spanning 5 starts. His control has been spot on striking out 29 and walking just 4 in that 5 game stretch. Current Milwaukee hitters have had 87 lifetime plate appearances vs Urias and their batting average is just .192. The Dodgers bats are officially back on track after sweeping Miami here over the weekend outscoring the Marlins 19-4 in the process. Yesterday they faced arguably the top starting pitcher in MLB, Sandy Alcantara, and shelled him for 10 hits and 6 runs in just 3 innings. As we stated above, they faced Milwaukee pitcher Lauer last week and won 2-1. We expect them to have more offensive success here at home where they average 5.3 RPG with a average winning margin of +2 RPG. Lauer’s numbers on the road drop off quite a bit as well with an ERA of 4.48 and a WHIP of 1.30. LA is now 43-15 at home this season and of those 43 wins, 37 have come by at least 2 runs. The Brewers are struggling as we said with a record of just 7-11 this month. They are coming off a huge rivalry series in Chicago in which the Cubs took 2 of 3 games. Now after playing yesterday in Chicago, they travel to the west coast while the Dodgers remain at home after their 3 game series with Miami. This one sets up nicely for an easy LA win. |
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08-22-22 | Falcons v. Jets UNDER 39 | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
#431/432 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 39 Points – Atlanta Falcons vs NY Jets, Monday at 8 PM ET - This total opened at 42 and has dropped to 39. We completely agree with the move and feel there is still some value on the Under here. Our power ratings have this total set at 37.5. These 2 had joint practices the last few days and the Jets defense was dominant according to our reports. Atlanta’s offense did next to nothing including in their red zone drills vs NY’s defense. It sounds like the Falcons will start rookie QB Ridder who played extensively in their first preseason game but completed less than 50% of his passes. Even if starter Mariota goes here, he struggled big time vs this Jets defense that last 2 days. The NY offense actually played well vs Atlanta’s defense in joint practices, however because of injury problems, there is a good chance that Jet head coach Saleh will sit his starters in this one. Even if they play, it will be a short stint. Especially QB Flacco who will most likely be the starter early in the regular season with Wilson injured. They cannot afford to lose Flacco to injury so he won’t play much if at all here. All reports were the Jets were the better team the last 2 days practicing vs Atlanta but with the Falcons set to play starters for at least some time and the Jets not sure, the Under is the better play here. Atlanta scored 27 points in their first preseason game vs Detroit who had one of the worst defense in the NFL last year. The Birds had only 307 total yards in that game so they were quite fortunate to get to 27 points. NY had a similar situation scoring 24 points on just 301 total yards. The We look for the Atlanta offense to really have a tough time and with NY’s QB situation, they’ll be going with 3rd stringer White and 4th stringer Streveler for most of the game if not all. Neither team gets to 20 points here and we’ll grab the Under. |
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08-21-22 | Brewers v. Cubs UNDER 7 | Top | 5-2 | Push | 0 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
#905/906 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 7 Runs – Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs, Sunday at 2:20 PM ET - After the wind was blowing out at Wrigley in the first 2 meetings of this series, today it’s blowing in at 10 MPH which obviously makes a huge difference. Cubs won 8-7 in game 1 and due to the wind it seemed every routine fly ball had a chance to go out – 5 HR’s in that game. Chicago also won yesterday’s game 6-5, however it was 3-3 after 9 innings and they scored 5 in extras. The 2 teams combined for only 9 hits prior to extra innings yesterday. Cubs send Steele to the mound who has been pitching very well. He has allowed 0 ER’s in 3 of his last 4 starts and over his last 10 he is giving up just 1.5 ER’s in 5+ innings per start. He has a 2.75 ERA in 4 starts vs Milwaukee this season and the Brewers offense struggles big time vs lefties with a batting average of .219 which ranks them 29th out of 30 MLB teams. Woodruff takes the mound for Milwaukee and he is sporting a 2.75 ERA over his last 12 starts. Since May 1st, he has 14 starts under his belt and he’s allowed 3 ER’s or fewer in 13 of those game. Lifetime vs current Cubs hitters, Woodruff has allowed a batting average of only .194. Steele has been even better vs current Milwaukee hitters allowing a batting average of just .183 lifetime. After these 2 combined for 7 HR’s over the first 2 meetings in this series, with the wind blowing in and 2 starters pitching at a very high level, the long ball will be tough today. Under in this one. |
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08-20-22 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 16-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – St Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET - The St Louis bats are red hot and we expect that to continue tonight. The Cards are hitting just under .300 over their last 10 games while averaging over 6 RPG. On the season STL ranks 4th in RPG, 6th in batting average and 5th in OPS. They’ll be facing struggling left hander Bumgarner and STL owns the 3rd best batting average in the Majors vs lefties while averaging 5.6 RPG. Bumgarner has been shaky most of the season with an ERA of 4.37 but an xERA exceeding 5.00. Over his last 4 games his ERA is 7.33 and he has allowed 42 baserunners in just 23 innings during that stretch. He's had 14 career starts vs the Cardinals with an ERA of 5.23. Arizona will be facing Hudson on the hill for St Louis and he is their weakest starter. His ERA is 4.17 but his xERA is north of 5.00. Over his last 10 starts Hudson is averaging 5 IP per start while allowing 3.3 ER’s. On the road his ERA is 5.10 and he has allowed 86 baserunners in 55 innings. The DBacks bats have been a bit quiet over their last 5 but all were vs top of the line starters and Hudson is a big step down tonight. On the season Arizona is averaging 4.6 RPG at home and they’ve gone Over in 7 of their last 10 at Chase Field. These 2 combined to score 6 runs last night but had 16 hits which would normally equate to around 8 runs and 25 LOB and both teams starters had much better ERA’s than today’s pitchers. Both offenses play well tonight and this one goes Over 9 Runs. |
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08-20-22 | Broncos v. Bills -6.5 | Top | 15-42 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
#412 ASA NFLX TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo Bills -6.5 over Denver Broncos, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET - After last week’s win, the Bills have now won 9 straight NFL preseason games which is the 2nd best current streak behind the Ravens 21 straight games. It’s obvious that head coach Sean McDermott puts an emphasis on winning preseason games. He has stated he will play his starters “a healthy amount” this week including QB Josh Allen. Last week in their 27-24 win over Indianapolis, McDermott sat most of his starters and the Bills had 5 turnovers and still pulled out a win. They outgained the Colts, who played more of their starters including starting QB Matt Ryan, by 1.6 yards per play. Denver will not play their starters in this game according to new head coach Nathaniel Hackett who says he “isn’t a fan of the preseason”. Josh Johnson will start at QB followed by Brett Rypien for Denver who beat Dallas 17-7 last week but outgained the Cowboys by only 8 yards. We have one of the best teams in the NFL playing their starters extensively here vs a bunch of back ups for Denver. Laying under a TD is a solid situation. Take Buffalo. |
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08-19-22 | Saints v. Packers UNDER 40 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 45 h 44 m | Show |
#405/406 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 40 – New Orleans Saints vs Green Bay Packers, Friday at 8:00 PM ET - The first week of the NFL preseason saw 14 of the 17 games (including the HOF game) go Over the Total. The average total set by the oddsmakers last week was 34.8 and after last week’s scoring (games averaged 43 total points) the average total set this week is right around 40 which is where this game sits. The Packers total last week vs San Francisco was set at 34.5 and the Saints total vs Houston was 35. This is an over adjustment in our opinion and we think there is some value on the Under in this game. Neither starting QB will take the field in this one and both defenses look like they are ahead of the offenses right now. The Saints defense held Houston to 275 total yards and 17 points last week. One of those TD’s came on a 47 yard drive after a New Orleans turnover and the other came with 25 seconds remaining in the game. The Saints offense only averaged 3.9 YPP in that game (only scored 13 points) vs a Houston defense that finished 31st in YPP defense a year ago. The Niners scored 28 points but had only 328 total yards in their home game vs GB last week. SF was put in favorable field position throughout the game due to 3 Packer turnovers and 3 of their 5 scores came on drives of 39 yards or less. These 2 have been facing off in practice this week and our word is the defenses have dominated. These two defenses should be among the best in the NFL this year and we look for the offenses to struggle in this game. Under is our recommendation. |
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08-19-22 | Astros +115 v. Braves | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
#929 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros +115 over Atlanta Braves, Friday at 7:20 PM ET - Rough situational spot for the Braves coming off their huge 4 game series with the Mets as those 2 battle it out for the NL East crown. Atlanta won 3 of those 4 games and now must face the team with the 2nd best record in MLB whose offense has been red hot. The Astros scored 21 runs yesterday vs the White Sox and they’ve scored the 2nd most runs in baseball since the All Star break behind only the Dodgers. Houston is hitting nearly .300 over their last 10 games while averaging over 7 RPG. Atlanta sends Wright to the mound and he’s had a very solid season but has been dealing with arm fatigue as of late. He’s already pitched over 134 innings which is by far the most in his career and Wright had to skip his last start due to a tired arm. In his last 3 starts his ERA is 4.34 which is much higher than his season ERA of 3.14. Houston will go with McCullers who has made 1 start since coming off the DL. That was a 6 inning outing in which he did not allow an earned run. He has been one of Houston’s top pitchers since 2015 with a lifetime ERA of 3.54 in 677 innings of work and he has struck out more than 1 batter per inning in his career. Once McCullers exits the Astros have the best bullpen in the Majors with an ERA of 2.91 on the season and the relievers have allowed a league low 25 HR’s this year. It’s not often we get a team like Houston as a money line underdog. They’ve been in that position only 15 times all year winning 7 of those games giving them the 5th best winning % as a dog this season. We like Houston on Friday night. |
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08-18-22 | Dodgers v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 9 m | Show |
#953/954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – LA Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET - We’ve had 3 low scoring games so far in this series and expect another here. These 2 have scored 16 total runs in 3 games in this series however 3 of those runs have come in extra innings. That means 13 runs scored in 3 games in regulation or barely 4 total runs per game. Minus the extra inning hits in game 2, these two have combined for just 28 total hits in 3 games. Milwaukee’s offense has been terrible over the last few weeks. Over their last 10 games their team batting average is .180 and they are averaging 2.8 RPG. As we stated in yesterday’s analysis (lost with LA run line despite Brewers scoring only 1 run – tough) the Brewers aren’t a great hitting team (23rd in batting average) so they rely heavily on HR’s to score. LA starter Heaney, who sports a 1.16 ERA on the season, has allowed 1 HR all year. He's also a lefty and Milwaukee really has problems vs south paws with a team batting average of .218 with is 29th in MLB. While LA came into this series red hot offensively, they’ve cooled off over their last 5 games with a batting average of only .216. In this series they are hitting just .192 over the first 3 games. Facing Milwaukee ace Burnes won’t help them here. He has a 2.39 ERA on the season and opponents are hitting .181 vs him. Both pitchers average right around 12 K’s per 9 innings which puts them near the top in that category. Two struggling offenses and lots of swings and misses today means another low scoring game. Under is the play. |
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08-17-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
#911 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Milwaukee Brewers, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are coming off a rare loss (in extra innings) last night and we like them to bounce back tonight. LA has been on a fantastic run winning 24 of their last 30 games and they’ve only lost back to back games twice since mid June. They have the 2nd best batting average in MLB since the All Star Break (3rd best on the season) and they’ve scored 156 runs during that stretch which is #1 in baseball, a full 27 runs more than Atlanta who has the 2nd most in that time. They were a bit unlucky last night as they outhit the Brewers 8-5 but lost 5-4 in 11 innings. Milwaukee was very fortunate to score 5 runs on only 5 hits as their bats continue to struggle. The Brewers have hit just .188 as a team over their last 10 games while barely averaging 3 RPG. Because they don’t hit for a high average, Milwaukee must hit HR’s to generate scoring and they are facing Dodger pitcher Gonsolin tonight who has allowed just 11 HR’s the entire season in 116 innings of work. He is 14-1 on the year with a WHIP of just 0.89 which is the 3rd best among starters in MLB. Gonsolin has allowed just 29 ER’s in 21 starts this season and Milwaukee doesn’t have a single player on their team that has more than 2 plate appearances life time vs him. LA has the 3rd best bullpen ERA when he exits so we look for Milwaukee to continue their offensive struggles. Lauer pitches for the Brewers and his numbers are solid with a 3.64 ERA, however his xFIP and xERA are both north of 4.00. Very few have been able to slow down this Dodgers offense averaging over 6 RPG since the break and we don’t expect Lauer to keep them in check today. LA has 80 wins on the season and amazingly 72 of those have come by at least 2 runs. Since the All Star Break they have 20 wins and all but 1 of came by 2 or more runs. Dodgers bounce back today and cover the -1.5 run line. |
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08-16-22 | Mets v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – NY Mets vs Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 7:20 PM ET - Atlanta took game 1 of this series with a 13-1 win last night. That was the 6th time these teams have met this month and they are averaging over 11 total runs scored in those games. These are 2 of the top offensive teams with each ranking in the top 9 in RPG, OPS, and batting average. Since the All Star Break the Mets rank #1 in batting average and Atlanta comes in at #5. As far as runs scored, these 2 teams rank 2nd and 3rd in MLB since the break only behind the Dodgers. Morton will start for Atlanta and he has been shelled in his 2 starts vs the Mets this season going 0-2 with a 7.59 ERA. Over his last 3 starts, Morton has an ERA of 4.58. Walker starts for the Mets and he has faced Atlanta once this season, just 11 days ago, and he last 1 inning giving up 8 ER’s. He has been struggling in general as of late allowing 16 ER’s over his last 4 starts in just 18.2 innings pitched. Over the last 10 games these offenses are both averaging around 5.5 RPG with a batting average well above their season averages. These 2 N.L. East rivals have met 13 times this season and the Over is 9-3-1. Hot temps in Atlanta tonight with the wind blowing straight out to center at 10+ MPH should be a perfect situation for a high scoring game. We like Over the total in this one. |
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08-15-22 | Padres -134 v. Marlins | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -134 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
#903 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres -135 over Miami Marlins, Monday at 6:40 PM ET - Both teams have high end starters going today but San Diego’s offense is far superior to Miami’s right now. The Marlins have been brutal at the plate for quite a long stretch now. They have scored 3 or fewer runs in 14 straight games and over their last 10 outings the Marlins are averaging 1.9 RPG. They have scored 2 runs or fewer in 19 of their las 32 games. Since the All Star Break Miami has scored a grand total of 59 runs in 24 games which is the lowest run total by a full 15 runs. The 2nd worst offense during that stretch is Washington and they have scored 74 runs. Musgrove goes for San Diego and he has had an all star season with a 2.91 ERA. On the road he has allowed just 52 hits in 65 innings pitched. In 4 career starts vs Miami he is 3-0 with a 2.19 ERA. The Marlins have Alcantara on the mound and he’s been very good as well this season. However he has allowed 4 ER’s in 2 of his last 3 starts and in his lone start vs SD this year the Padres hit him up with 7 baserunners and 3 runs in 4.2 innings. While Miami’s offense is bad right now, the Padres have scored 39 runs over their last 5 games while hitting .305 as a team. San Diego shouldn’t need to do much on offense to get the win here and we’ll lay the number with them on the road tonight. |
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08-15-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Reds | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
#901 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Cincinnati Reds, Monday at 6:40 PM ET - The Phillies were on a roll winning 12 of 13 games before they ran into the red hot Mets over the weekend and lost 2 of 3. Their offense came to a screeching halt vs the Mets, however they faced 3 top of the line starting pitchers in Scherzer (1.93 ERA), DeGrom (1.62 ERA), and Bassitt (3.27 ERA). Prior to their series with the Mets, they had average 5.4 RPG over their previous 16 games. We fully expect the Phillies offense to take off here vs Mike Minor who has been terrible. The left hander has won 1 game this season and his ERA is over 6.00. He had made 7 starts at home this season and the Reds have lost all 7 of those games by an average score of 6.6 to 2.6. All 7 of those losses came by at least 2 runs. Dating back to last season, Minor has allowed a whopping 44 HR’s in 122 innings pitched which is more than 3 per 9 innings. Bad news facing a Phillies offense that averages 1.3 HR’s per 9 innings which is good for 6th in the Majors. On top of that, Cincy has the worst bullpen ERA in MLB so not much help on the back end in this game. Philadelphia’s Syndergaard hasn’t been his dominating self since his Tommy John surgery a few years back but he has still been solid. He’s pitched just 2 games for Philadelphia after being traded from the LA Angels and his ERA on the season is a solid 3.96. He’s facing a Reds line up that has averaged just 2.9 RPG over their last 10 scoring 2 runs or fewer in 7 of those games. We like Philly to win this game by at least 2 runs. |
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08-14-22 | Brewers v. Cardinals -137 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show |
#960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis Cardinals -135 over Milwaukee Brewers, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - These 2 split the first 2 games of this crucial NL Central series with St Louis winning the opener 3-1 and Milwaukee bouncing back to win in 10 innings last night 3-2 despite only 4 hits. STL starter Wainwright flirted with a no hitter vs Milwaukee’s struggling offense but the Brewers hit a HR late (8th inning) to tie the game and sent it to extras. The Brewers are averaging just 3.8 RPG with a batting average of .220 over their last 10 games. Today they’ll face Mikolas who has been outstanding at home this year with an ERA of 2.48 and a WHIP of 0.88. He has allowed just 53 hits in 74 innings pitched at Busch Stadium this season. The Cards have won his last 5 starts at home and we expect another W today. Milwaukee starter Ashby has a record of 1-7 on the road this year with an ERA of 4.72 and a WHIP of 1.66. He’s allowed 92 baserunners in 54 innings pitched on the road this season. The lefty will face a STL line up that has been hot averaging 5.6 RPG while hitting .260 over their last 10 games. The Cards have the 3rd best batting average & OPS in the Majors vs lefties this season. At home they are averaging nearly 6 RPG this year vs left handed pitchers. STL has been very good at home this year winning 9 of their last 10, they are 15 games above .500 here, and their RPG margin at Busch Stadium is +1.2. We like St Louis to take the series finale today. |
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08-13-22 | Twins v. Angels +100 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
#930 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Angels +100 over Minnesota Twins, Saturday at 9:05 PM ET - The Twins took the opener last night 3-0 but the pitching match up today is heavily in favor of the host Angels. Left hander Detmers is on the mound for LA and he’s been fantastic as of late. The Angels feel he is a top of the rotation pitcher after taking him 10th overall in the 2020 draft and he showing glimpses of that ability. He threw a no hitter early in the year but struggled some after that and LA sent him down to the minors to work on a few things. Since being recalled, Detmers has made 5 starts allowing just 4 ER’s in 31 innings for an ERA of 1.16. Minnesota averages nearly a full RPG less vs lefties and they’ve never faced Detmers giving LA an edge here. Bundy, who pitched for the Angels last year, gets the start for Minnesota. He’s been up and down at best this year with an ERA of over 5.00. He’s been worse on the road where his ERA is 6.33 and Bundy has allowed 85 baserunners in just 59 innings pitched away from home this season. The bullpens are about dead even in this one but big advantage on the hill for the majority of the game as Detmers has thrown at least 90 pitches in each of his last 5 starts and we expect him to go at least 6 innings here. We don’t love LA’s offense obviously but they have been playing much better as of late winning 5 of their last 8 games. Minnesota is slightly above .500 on the season but they haven’t played great over the last month or so winning just 13 of their last 30 games. At basically even money we like the Angels tonight. |
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08-13-22 | Saints v. Texans UNDER 33.5 | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 33.5 New Orleans Saints @ Houston Texans, Saturday 8 PM ET - We will start with the all-important QB positions for both teams. The Saints are without starter Jameis Winston so Andy Dalton will get a series or two under center followed by Ian Book and newly signed KJ Costello. Houston only has two QB’s currently available so Davis Mills will play longer than expected followed by 6-year vet Jeff Driskel. Reports out of the Texans camp is that the offense has looked horrible. QB Davis has been indecisive and hasn’t been good throwing the ball downfield. The best running back in camp thus far has been rookie Dameon Pierce who was drafted in the 4th round. The Texans were one of the least explosive offenses in the NFL a season ago averaging just 4.7 Yards Per Play which ranked them 30th. Houston managed just 1-point for every 16.9 yards gained which was also 30th out of 32 team’s last season. New Orleans is loaded on offense this season but don’t expect to see many of their Super Stars on the field Saturday. As we mention starting QB Winston is out, RB Kamara is facing a suspension so why jeopardize him in a meaningless preseason game and Michael Thomas is coming off a serious ankle injury. New Orleans was well below average in Yards Per Play a season ago at 4.9 and scored just 21.4PPG which was significantly lower than what they averaged the previous season at 29.1PPG. Both teams’ defenses are ahead of the offenses at this point, and we expect a very low scoring game. Bet UNDER. |
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08-12-22 | Pirates v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
#962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Friday at 10:15 PM ET - Nice situational spot here for SF with their top starter on the mound. The Giants played in San Diego on Wednesday and had yesterday off after their short trip home. Pittsburgh was playing @ Arizona yesterday and tonight will be playing their 8th consecutive road game in 8 days. The Pirates are 2-5 so far on this road trip that has taken them from the east coast (Baltimore) to the west coast (Arizona and now SF). They are 17 games below .500 away from home with a losing margin of -1.5 runs per game. SF sends lefty Rodon to the mound and he has been fantastic at home this year. His ERA in home games is just 1.76 and he has struck out 73 batters in just 51 innings. That’s a problem for a Pittsburgh offense that has struck out an average of 9.5 per 9 innings ranking them 29th in MLB out of 30 teams. They’ve struck out 365 times this year vs left handers which is by far the worst in the Majors. Pittsburgh also ranks 29th in batting average vs lefties at .219. Rodon faced the Pirates once this season and went 8 innings, allowed 2 hits and 0 runs. Bryse Wilson starts for Pittsburgh and while he’s coming off a solid outing in his most recent start, his season long numbers aren’t great. His ERA is close to 6.00 and opposing hitters have a .298 batting average vs Wilson. He’s allowed 100 baserunners in just 66 innings this season and his HR allowed rate is quite high at 1.65 per 9 innings. Wilson barely averages 4 innings per game with his pitch count often in the 80’s and lower. That means Pittsburgh’s bad bullpen, which has the 4th worst ERA in the league, will get plenty of work here as well. SF has a losing record on the season but they are the only team below .500 that has + run differential so they are better than their record indicates. We like this spot for the Giants and look for a 2+ run win tonight. |
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08-11-22 | Titans v. Ravens -3.5 | Top | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 44 h 39 m | Show |
#108 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Ravens -3.5 over Tennessee Titans, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Lots of things going for the Ravens in this one. First of all it’s quite obvious that head coach John Harbaugh wants to win in the pre-season. His well documented and talked about lifetime record 40-12 SU record in NFLX including 20 straight wins dating back to the 2016 season! They’ve won 12 of those 20 games by double digits and their average margin of victory in their 20 game winning streak is +13 PPG. Not only are the Ravens winning NFLX games at an incredible rate, they are covering to the tune of 25-5 ATS their last 30. Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel hasn’t shown much determination the pre-season winning just 4 of his 11 games since taking over the Titans in 2018. The QB advantage also is heavily in favor of Baltimore in this game. Tennessee starter Tannehill didn’t take a single snap in the pre-season last year and we doubt he will play in this game. That leaves Logan Woodside, who has thrown 3 career passes in the NFL, and rookie Malik Willis to guide this offense. Baltimore will most likely go without starting QB Jackson as well but we like their depth at that position much better. Tyler Huntley is the back up and he threw for over 1,000 yards last year taking over for Jackson when he was injured. After Huntley it will be Brett Hundley who has throw for almost 2,000 yards in his career. Tennessee is banged up in the defensive backfield and had to add 2 safeties to the roster this week so they have enough depth for this game. We’ll lay it Baltimore at home on Thursday night. |
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08-11-22 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 8 | Top | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 3 h 50 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Chicago White Sox vs KC Royals, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET - Dylan Cease starts for the Sox in this game and he has given up next to nothing this year. His ERA is 1.98 on the season and over his last 10 starts he’s allowed a total of 5 ER’s. He’s allowed just 2 ER’s over his last 31 innings for an ERA of 0.59. Cease has faced the Royals twice this season and he’s allowed 2 ER’s combined in those 2 starts. The KC offense ranks 24th in RPG and at home this season they are averaging just 3.6 RPG vs right handed pitchers. The Royals send Greinke to the hill and while he’s had some issues on the road this season, at home he’s been very good with an ERA of 2.23. He’s made 9 starts at home this season and allowed 2 ER’s or fewer in 8 of those. The Sox offense has gone south as of late scoring 3 runs or less in 6 of their last 7 games and they are averaging 3.5 RPG over their last 10. Since the All Star Break Chicago has scored a total of 68 runs ranking them 25th in MLB during that stretch. These 2 A.L. Central rivals are used to low scoring games with 12 of the last 15 meetings in KC going Under the Total and 20 of their last 26 overall staying Under. Low scoring today in KC. |
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08-10-22 | Cardinals v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 12 Runs – St Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET - This total opened 10.5 last night and was hammered up to 12 fairly quickly. Still not high enough in our opinion. Our total on this game is set at 12.9 so we still feel there is vale with the Over. These 2 combined for 21 runs on 30 hits last night. If we add in the walks, these 2 combined for 36 baserunners in 9 innings or a whopping 4 per inning! Tonight 2 lefties are headed to the mound with Quintana for St Louis and Freeland for Colorado. Both offenses excel vs south paws this season with the Cards averaging 5.45 RPG and the Rockies averaging 5.25 RPG (Colorado averages 7.34 RPG at home vs left handed pitchers). Factor in the altitude and the winds which will be blowing out to left at 10 to 15 MPH and we get not only the Coors Field factor but Coors Field Plus (wind) tonight. Quintana has pitched once at Coors this season when he was with Pittsburgh and the Rockies put up 13 runs in that game, he allowed 6 ER’s in 5 innings. Freeland has an ERA of 5.55 with a 1.60 WHIP at home this season for the Rockies. Colorado home games have averaged 11.25 total runs this year so while this seems high, it really isn’t when we factor in the weather and what we expect to be hot hitting line ups again tonight. Over 12 in this one. |
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08-09-22 | Marlins v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
#902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Two teams heading in opposite directions here especially on offense. Over the last 10 games the Phillies have 9 wins and average 6.8 RPG. The Marlins have won 3 of their last 10 and they are averaging 2.3 RPG during that stretch. Miami has won just 6 of their last 20 games and 11 of their last 30. They have fallen completely out of the playoff race sitting at 10 games below .500. The Phils are right in the thick of things with a 60-48 record and have their ace on the mound today. Zack Wheeler has been lights out on the mound allowing 2 ER’s or fewer in 15 of his 20 starts this season. At home he’s been even better with an ERA of 1.58 and he’s allowed just 40 total hits in 64 innings of work at Citizens Bank Park. That’s a bad recipe for a Miami offense that has scored the fewest in MLB since the All Star Break at 44. Miami pitcher Garrett has solid overall numbers this season but his ERA was north of 5.00 in each of his last 2 seasons so he’s pitching above his head in our opinion. On the road this season he has an ERA of 4.23 and the Marlins have lost 4 of his last 6 starts away from home. He’s running into a Philadelphia offense that has the 4th best batting averaging since the All Star Break and they have scored the 5th most runs at 85, nearly double what Miami has scored since mid July. Over the last 10 games the Marlins have been outscored by an average of 2.3 – 3.6 (-1.3 RPG differential) while the Phillies have outscored their opponents 6.8 – 3.8 (+3.0 RPG differential). We like the Phillies to keep rolling and pick up an easy win here. |
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08-08-22 | Blue Jays v. Orioles UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 9.5 Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles, 7 PM ET - Toronto is one of the higher scoring teams in baseball, but the Orioles are not ranking 20th in runs/9 innings. The O’s rank 20th or worse in hitting, OPS and strikeouts per game. Toronto is playing their 7th straight road game and their offensive numbers are trending down as they’ve scored 3 or less runs in four of those away games. The Blue Jays have now stayed Under the Total in 7 of their last ten games with the total runs scored in those contests being an average of 7.40 run/9 innings. The last ten games involving the Orioles have averaged 7.30 runs/9 innings. Pitching will play an important part in this game too with Kikuchi slated to start for the Jays, Lyles for the O’s. In their last ten games the Orioles are hitting just .203 as a team against left-handed starters and scoring an average of 2.43 runs/9 innings. Toronto has recently struggled hitting right-handed starters with a .232 team average and 4.18 runs/9 innings. Kikuchi is coming off two solid outings with just 5 hits allowed and 3 earned runs in 9 innings of work. In the last five games he’s started the totals have all finished with 9 or less runs. Lyles has also pitched well in his last two starts, lasting 11.3 innings with 11 K’s, 1 earned run allowed and 10 total hits. This sets up to be a low scoring game. |
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08-07-22 | Yankees -123 v. Cardinals | Top | 9-12 | Loss | -123 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
#927 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Yankees -123 over St Louis Cardinals, Sunday at 2:15 PM ET - The Yankees are trying to prevent a 3 game sweep and we like them to get the win today. The Cards have won each of the first 2 games by just 1 run and NY has had more hits over the first 2 games despite their 2 tight losses. The Yanks have left 30 runners on base over the 2 losses. Frankie Montas takes the mound for NY after coming over from Oakland earlier this week. Montas was a bright spot for the down trodden A’s with an ERA of 3.18 and a batting average allowed of .231 on the season. He has not allowed more than 2 ER’s in a game since mid June. Despite pitching very well this season, Montas has a deceiving losing record due to Oakland’s inept offense. They averaged just 2.5 RPG in his 19 starts and the A’s were held to 1 run or less in over HALF of his starts this season (10). He has not faced a single player on the St Louis roster that has more than 8 career at bats vs him. He hasn’t faced the Cards this season and we like Montas to perform very well today. He’s backed up by the 2nd best bullpen in MLB in terms of ERA. Wainwright goes for St Louis today. He’s had a solid season but he’s not pitching as well as his ERA might indicate. His ERA is 3.11 yet his xERA is much higher at 4.40. He’s been a bit luck as well with a LOB% of over 80% on the season. The Cards have moved into 1st place in the NL Central but against teams that are over .500, their record is just 21-27. The Yankees, on the other hand, are 40-28 this season vs teams that have winning records. NY ranks 2nd in MLB averaging 5.3 RPG yet they’ve only scored 3 runs combined in the first 2 games of this series leaving lots of men on base as we discussed. We like them to break out offensively this afternoon. New York has not been swept in a 3 game series this season and we don’t expect it to happen today. |
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08-06-22 | Giants -1.5 v. A's | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
#981 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Oakland A’s, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET - San Fran was just swept by the red hot Dodgers and now they take a huge step down in competition facing Oakland who has the 2nd worst record in MLB and a run differential of -111 on the season. Rodon will start for SF and he’s been outstanding with an ERA of 3.00 but he’s actually pitching better than that number with an xERA of 2.77. He had 2 poor back to back outings coming out of the All Star Break but righted the ship in his most recent start holding the Cubs scoreless in 7 IP allowing just 2 hits. The lefty is facing an Oakland line up that ranks 29th or 30th in RPG, OPS, and batting average and vs southpaws at home this year the A’s are hitting just .189 and averaging 2.6 RPG. The Giants haven’t been hitting well over their last 10 games but nearly half of those games (4) came vs high level LA Dodger starting pitchers. They should look much better today vs Oakland starter Oller who has an ERA of 7.68, a WHIP of 1.73 and has the highest xFIP of any starting pitcher going today. Oller has bounced back and forth between starter and reliever this year. As a starter he’s been really bad allowing 30 ER’s in his 7 starts spanning 30 innings. He’s been his worst at home this year with an ERA of 9.00. Oakland is 17-34 at home this year and they are getting outscored by an average of 2 RPG! While SF does have a losing road record, they actually have a plus run differential away from home. We expect the A’s offense to struggle today while San Fran should be able to break out with a big game. Lay the -1.5 with the Giants. |
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08-05-22 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 RUNS Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers, 8:10PM ET - The Brewers are one of the higher scoring teams in baseball at 4.65 runs per game and average even more at home at 4.72. The Reds are slightly below average in runs per game at 4.32 which ranks 18th. The Reds pitching staff as a whole has not been good this season as they allow an average of 5.32 runs/9 innings and rank 29th in home runs allowed at 1.37. That’s significant considering the Brewers are 4th in home runs at 1.43 per game. Milwaukee is also below average in runs allowed per 9 innings at 4.37 which ranks 17th in MLB. On the season the Brewers have excelled versus right-handed pitching but in their last ten games they’ve been even better with a .298 average and 7.19 runs/9 innings. The same can be said for the Reds who have hit left-handed starters well all year but in their last ten games it’s been better yet with a .278 team average while scoring an average of 6.43 runs/9 innings. In the last 15 days the Brewers have scored 71 runs in 12 games (4th most) while Cincinnati has put up 59 total runs in 13 games (10th). The bet here is OVER the number. |
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08-04-22 | A's v. Angels UNDER 8 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 42 m | Show |
#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 8 Runs – Oakland A’s vs LA Angels, Thursday at 4:05 PM ET - We were on the under in this match up yesterday and cashed nicely as the A’s topped the Angels 3-1. These two AL West rivals have now met 9 times this season and only once have they totaled more than 8 runs. The average total runs scored in their 9 match ups this season is 5.66. The offenses are 2 of the worst in MLB. Oakland ranks 29th or lower out of 30 teams in RPG, OPS, and batting average and LA ranks 25th or lower in those 3 categories. Blackburn is on the mound tonight for the A’s and he’s been great on the road this season with a 1.74 ERA and he’s allowed just 51 hits in 68 innings away from home. He’s been a heavy ground ball pitcher this year at almost 50% which limits home runs and leads to lower scoring games. Junk, perfect name for a pitcher, is going for LA. He’s only pitched in 2 games this season but has looked very good. In his 1 start he went 5 innings, struck out 8 and did not allow an earned run. Oakland has never seen him before which gives him the edge in this game. Over the last 10 games, the Angels are averaging 6.8 total RPG and Oakland is averaging 7.7. Both bullpens have also been performing much better as of late compared to their season long stats. We think we’re in for another low scoring game this afternoon and we’re on the Under. |
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08-03-22 | A's v. Angels UNDER 7 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
#927/928 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Oakland A’s vs LA Angels, Wednesday at 9:35 PM ET - The Angels picked up a 3-1 win in last night’s game between these division rivals who have now played 8 times this season. In those 8 meetings they’ve topped 8 runs just 1 time and their average total runs scored when these 2 meet is 5.8. That’s understandable as both offenses rank near the bottom of MLB in most key categories. Oakland ranks 29th or lower out of 30 teams in RPG, OPS, and batting average and LA ranks 25th or lower in those 3 categories. Oakland had a solid run coming out of the All Star break but they’ve now been held to 2 runs or less in 3 straight games. LA is averaging just 3.7 RPG over their last 10 outings. Ohtani gets the call for the Angels and he’s pretty much shut down everybody. His ERA 2.81 and his xERA is even lower at 2.48. He’s also been a strike out machine averaging over 13 per 9 innings pitched. He has not faced Oakland this year giving him a leg up in this meeting. The A’s will go with Kaprielian who’s numbers aren’t as gaudy with a 4.50 ERA, however opponents are hitting just .227 vs him and he has been on his game as of late. Over his last 4 starts, Kaprielian has allowed a total of 4 ER’s in 22 innings of work. He has allowed just 23 baserunners in that 22 inning span. He has also not faced the Angels this season which gives him an advantage in our opinion. Historically both pitchers have been very solid vs the opposing hitters on these teams with Kaprielian allowing a batting average of .156 while Ohtani has allowed a BA of only .114. Another low scoring affair here and we like the UNDER in this one. |
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07-31-22 | Twins v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 runs Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres, 4:10 PM ET - Nine runs will get us a win in this contest and our predictive analytics suggest 10 or more total runs in this series finale. It starts with the pitchers for both teams as the Twins send right-handed Dylan Bundy to the hill with the Padres countering with lefty Sean Manaea. Bundy is 6-4 on the season with a 5.02 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. In his last five starts he has two wins and three no decisions but has allowed 15 earned runs on 27 hits in 24.1 innings of work. Historically, Bundy hasn’t been great, sporting an ERA over 4.79 in four of his last five seasons. The Padres have scored 4 or more runs in five of their last six games and hit .235 versus righties this season scoring an average of 4.27 runs/9 innings. Minnesota is on an 8-1 Over streak as a result of scoring or allowing runs depending on the day. The Twins have scored 4 or more runs themselves in 5 of their last seven games and have allowed 4+ in 5 of six. Minnesota has ripped left-handed pitchers in their last ten games by hitting .274 as a team and producing 5.89 run/9 innings in that span. It all adds up to a high scoring game today. BET OVER! |
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07-30-22 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 8 Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros, 7:10 PM ET - It all starts with pitching in this match up and it features two solid starters with Chris Flexen for Seattle and Framber Valdez. Valdez is 9-4 on the season with a miniscule 2.74 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He’s a solid strikeout pitcher with 110 K’s this season in 121.2 innings of work. In his last start he faced this same Seattle team and went 6.2 innings with 8 strikeouts, 8 hits and 3 earned runs which all came in the 6th. The Mariners will send Flexen to the mound who is 7-8 on the season with a 3.75 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. He's allowed just 3 earned runs in his last three starts in 15.2 innings of work. Flexen faced this Houston team in June and allowed 2 earned runs on 5 hits in 6.2 innings of work. We expect two quality starts for both of these pitchers and then they’ll turn it over two a pair of the best bullpens in MLB. The Astros have the #1 ranked bullpen in terms of ERA at 2.72, Seattle is 11th at 3.61. Seattle is scoring just 3.35 runs/9 innings in their last ten games; Houston is scoring 4.22 run/9 innings their last ten games against right-handed pitchers. The Under has cashed 7 of the last ten meetings. Bet UNDER! |
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07-29-22 | Cubs +127 v. Giants | Top | 4-2 | Win | 127 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Cubs +125 vs. San Francisco Giants, 10:15 PM ET - We like the pitching matchup and the Cubs as a dog in this setting. The Cubs went into the All-Star Break with a win, then proceeded to cash in five straight games after the break before losing 2-4 last night. The Giants on the other hand had lost seven games in a row prior to last night’s win. In each teams last ten games the Cubs have a net run differential of +1 run per game, while the Giants are a negative -1.8 runs per game. Overall, the Cubs have faired slightly better against right-handed pitchers than the Giants have but in their last ten games the difference is drastically in favor of Chicago. In their last ten games the Giants are hitting just .188 as a team versus righties and producing 3.40 runs/9 innings. The Cubs on the other hand are hitting .254 as a team in their last ten against right-handed pitchers. Chicago will send Marcus Stroman to the bump today who is 2-5 on the season with a 4.69 ERA but a solid 1.15 WHIP. He’s had two really bad outings this season against St Louis and Tampa Bay where he allowed 9 and 7 earned runs but other than that he’s been solid. In his last three starts he hasn’t earned a decision but has allowed just 2 total earned runs, 8 hits in 14.1 innings of work. Cobb is 3-4 on the season with a 4.26 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. In his four most recent games he has one solid outing against the Brewers but has allowed 10 earned runs and 20 hits. We like Chicago in this game and expect a solid win by the visitor. |
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07-28-22 | Guardians -113 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
#915 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Guardians -115 over Boston Red Sox, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET - The Sox have fallen off a cliff in July and they’ve dropped to last place in the AL East. They’ve won only 6 of their 24 games this month and Cleveland has taken 2 of the first 3 in this series. The Guardians have outhit Boston in all 3 games of this series (+10 hits in the series) despite their 1 loss. Over the last 10 games, Boston is hitting .215 and averaging just 3.6 RPG. During that stretch they have lost by an AVERAGE of 5.8 runs per game and they’ve had 52 fewer hits than their opponents! We don’t look for that struggling offense to get right tonight vs Cleveland’s red hot Tristan McKenzie who has allowed a total of 1 ER in his last 4 starts spanning 26.2 innings. Opponents are hitting just .197 this season off McKenzie which is bad news for a Boston offense that is hitting just .235 this month. McKenzie is backed by a strong bullpen that ranks 10th in MLB in ERA. Cleveland, on the other hand, has been red hot at the plate averaging over 6 RPG while hitting over .300 as a team their last 10 games. For the month of July, the Guardians have the 3rd best batting average in the Majors at .275. They’ll be facing Crawford who has appeared in 14 games this season but has made only 5 starts. Crawford has only made 15 career appearances (1 last year) and his lifetime ERA in the Majors in those appearances is 5.32. Unlike Cleveland who has a solid bullpen, the Sox rank 25th in reliever ERA so when Crawford exits we don’t expect Boston to shut down this red hot Guardian offense. This is a short money line in our opinion and we’ll grab Cleveland tonight. |
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07-27-22 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 2 h 9 m | Show |
#951/952 ASA PLAY ON Over 9 Runs – Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies, Wednesday at 12:35 PM ET - These 2 NL East rivals have already met 9 times this season and they’ve scored an average of 9.8 RPG in those meetings. Yesterday they hit 9 total runs with two of their top pitchers facing off with Nola for Philly and Strider for Atlanta. Today we have Gibson on the hill for the Phillies and he has struggled allowing at least 5 ER’s in 3 of his last 5 starts and his ERA this season is 4.69. He’s been susceptible to the HR this year allowing 1.25 per 9 innings and he’s facing an Atlanta line up that ranks 2nd in MLB averaging 1.55 HR’s per 9 innings. Braves hitters have had their way historically with Gibson with a batting average of .317 over 111 plate appearances. Philly will face Charlie Morton who has been pitching well but has struggled vs this team. In his 1 outing vs Philadelphia this season Morton allowed 2 ER’s in 5.2 innings of work but was rather fortunate as he allowed 11 baserunners in that game. Philadelphia batters have a lifetime average of .303 vs Morton over 142 plate appearances. He’s also been much better at home compared to on the road where his ERA is 4.59 with a WHIP of 1.37. The Braves have totaled at least 9 runs in each of their last 10 games with 9 of those going Over the total. Both offenses are among the best in the Majors ranking in the top 7 in RPG and HR’s per 9 innings. Weather looks perfect for a high scoring game with temps in the 80’s and light winds blowing straight out to center field. Over 9 is the play here. |
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07-26-22 | White Sox v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 10.5 Chicago White Sox @ Colorado Rockies, 8:40 PM ET - The Rockies are obviously one of the higher scoring teams in baseball at 4.61 runs per game and much of that is due to their home field where they average 5.88 runs per game. The White Sox are currently 16th in runs/9 innings on the year but have improved dramatically in the last 30-days by producing 129 total runs in 25 games. In fact, the Chi Sox averaged just 3.66 runs/per 9 innings on June 1st but now produce 4.41 on the season. Today the starting pitchers are Kopech for the Sox and Marquez for the Rockies. Kopech is 3-6 on the year with a 3.36 ERA but his XERA moving forward is 5.04. Kopech has allowed 32 hits in his last 30.4 innings pitched allowing 20 earned runs. Marquez is 6-7 on the year with a 5.47 ERA and he’s been hit pretty hard in his last four starts giving up 13 earned runs, 20 hits in 22.3 innings of work. This total is high for a reason…BET OVER! |
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07-25-22 | Astros v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 runs Houston Astros vs. Oakland A’s – 9:40 PM ET - We are betting the value here and Over 8 runs. These same two teams and pitchers just met in Houston in mid-July and the Over-Under on the game was 8.5. The game featured 16 total hits with 18 men left on base and finished with 7 runs. Oakland owns one of the worst offenses in baseball this season ranking 27th or worse in home runs, OPS, Average and runs/9 innings but they’ve been much better of late. In their last five games overall, the A’s are hitting .251 as a team and scoring 4.93 runs per game. Oakland’s last five games have averaged 9.20 total runs per game. Houston is in the top half of the league in most key offensive categories including runs/9 innings (4.53), OPS, rank 3rd in home runs and 3rd in fewest strikeouts per game. The A’s will send Adam Oller to the hill who is a starter/reliever and in the games he’s started he is 0-3 with an ERA over 8.5. In his last four starts he’s given up 22 hits, 18 earned runs in 17.2 innings of work. Jake Ordorizzi is 4-2 on the year with a 3.56 ERA for the Astros which are solid numbers but the A’s are seeing him for the third time this season so the hitters should have an edge. Bet the value and OVER here. |
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07-24-22 | Angels v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 29 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* RUN LINE BET: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-105) vs. LA Angels, 1:35 PM ET - The Braves have the 5th best total run differential in the Majors at +84 total runs on the season, the Angels are 22nd at minus -42 total runs. When playing on the road the Angels have an average run differential of -.96 runs per game, again one of the worst numbers in baseball. L.A. ranks 25th in runs per 9/innings overall at 3.99, 26th in team average at .229, 27th in OPS and strikeout more than any team in the Bigs. Their away numbers are even worse and if we look at their most recent ten games, we see they are scoring just 2.70 runs per 9/innings and hitting .199 as a team. Los Angeles will have a very tough time scoring runs in this contest against Ian Anderson who is 8-5 on the season with a 4.79 ERA. Anderson has pitched well in his last two starts allowing just 3 earned runs in 10.1 innings of work. Prior to his two solid outings he lost two games but those were against the Phillies and Dodgers who are two of the higher scoring teams in the Majors. The Braves offense is one of the best in the Biz with a team average of .248 (10th), an On Base Percentage of .758 (4th), they rank 5th in runs per 9/innings and are 2nd in home runs per game. An added bonus to today’s game is the fact they are facing the left-handed starter Reid Detmers for the Angels who is 2-3 on the year with a 4.11 ERA, 0-1 on the road. The Braves are one of the better hitting teams off lefties this season at .257, but in their last ten games against southpaws they are scoring 7.02 runs/9 innings and hitting .290. The Braves are 33-20 SU at home and may only need 4 runs to cover this spread considering the lack of hitting by the Angels. |
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07-23-22 | Angels v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* RUN LINE BET: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-105) vs. LA Angels, 7:20 PM ET - The Braves have the 5th best total run differential in the Majors at +79 total runs on the season, the Angels are 21st at minus -37 total runs. When playing on the road the Angels have an average run differential of -.94 runs per game, again one of the worst numbers in baseball. L.A. ranks 25th in runs per 9/innings overall at 3.99, 26th in team average at .229, 27th in OPS and strikeout more than any team in the Bigs. Their away numbers are even worse and if we look at their most recent ten games, we see they are scoring just 2.70 runs per 9/innings and hitting .199 as a team. Los Angeles will have a very tough time scoring runs in this contest against Kyle Wright who is 11-4 on the season with a 2.95 ERA. Wright is 7-1 in his last 9 starts with one no decision and is one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball with 107 on the year. The Braves offense is one of the best in the Biz with a team average of .248 (10th), an On Base Percentage of .758 (4th), they rank 5th in runs per 9/innings and are 2nd in home runs per game. An added bonus to today’s game is the fact they are facing the left-handed starter Patrick Sandoval for the Angels who is 3-4 on the year with a 2.95 ERA, but hasn’t pitched well of late allowing 21 hits in his last 16.1 innings of work. The Braves are one of the better hitting teams off lefties this season at .257, but in their last ten games against southpaws they are scoring 7.02 runs/9 innings and hitting .290. The Braves are 32-20 SU at home and may only need 4 runs to cover this spread considering the lack of hitting by the Angels. |
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07-22-22 | Rockies v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* RUN LINE Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) vs. Colorado Rockies, 8:20 PM ET - Milwaukee limped into the All-Star Game having lost three straight games to the Giants and 4 of their last five overall. The break came at a good time for Milwaukee, and we expect a renewed effort here at home in the opener of this series with the Rockies. The Brewers send their Ace to the mound with Corbin Burnes who is 7-4 on the season with a 2.14 ERA and miniscule .90 WHIP. Colorado will have a tough time getting men on base versus Burnes who has 144 strikeouts on the season, just 29 walks and 12 home runs. Colorado has solid overall offensive numbers on the season but much of that is due to their home field where they average 5.88 runs per game and hit .287 as a team. On the road though the numbers are drastically different for the Rockies. Colorado hits just .233 on the road and score 3.02 runs per game which is the second-lowest number in baseball. The Rockies also hit just .212 against right-handed pitchers on the road and score even fewer runs/9 innings at 2.75. Milwaukee is the 12th highest scoring team in baseball at 4.57 runs/9 innings and do it with the long-ball ranking 4th in the Majors in home runs. The Brewers hit 1.38 home runs per game at home which is the 4th highest number in MLB. Milwaukee should get plenty of scoring opportunities versus Antonio Senzatela who is 3-5 on the year with a 4.95 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. He’s been even worse on the road at 0-3 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. Senzatela is expected to see his pitching statistics worsen with an xERA of 5.92 and xFIP of 4.27 which are both higher than his current numbers. The moneyline is out of the question here but the Run Line is in the wheelhouse at -1.5 (-125). |
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07-21-22 | Tigers v. A's UNDER 7.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 7.5 RUNS Detroit Tiger @ Oakland A’s (Game 1) 3:37 PM ET - We are playing UNDER the total in the first game of the doubleheader between the Tigers and A’s today. These two teams possess the worst scoring offenses in the Majors with the Tigers ranking 30th in runs/9 inning at 3.24, 27th in team batting average at .229, 29th in OPS and 30th in homeruns. It’s been even worse for the Tigers in their most recent ten games as they’ve managed just 2.70 runs/9 innings. The A’s are right there with Detroit as they rank 29th in runs per 9 innings at 3.38, 30th in team average at .211, 30th in OPS and 29th in homeruns. In their last ten games the A’s have a higher run production at 4.01 but they had an anomaly game of 14 runs in that stretch versus Texas. Detroit starter Skubal is 6-8 on the year with a 4.11 ERA but his expected ERA (XERA) is lower at 3.36 and he owns an XFIB of 3.28 meaning he’s pitching better overall than his numbers would indicate. Zach Logue is slated to start today for the A’s and the lefty should have a solid day against this Tiger lineup. Logue was just called up on July 9th and pitched well against Houston with 5 solid innings, 3 hits and 2 earned runs. There is a real possibility one of these teams don’t score a run considering how bad they are offensively so the Under is the bet here. |
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07-17-22 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers, 2:35 PM ET - We expect both teams to put up runs early and often in this match up with a pair of sub-par starters taking the hill. Seattle will send Chris Flexen to the bump, the Rangers counter with Glenn Otto. These two starters have average overall numbers on the season but of today’s starters they have two of the worst XERAs and XFIPs which tells us they have pitched slightly better than they are both expected to in the future. Otto has a 5.81 XERA while Flexen is 5.08. These two teams had 17 hits yesterday but only managed 5 total runs. In the opener of the series, they produced 23 hits and scored 11 total runs. The Mariners offense is below average on the season ranking 24th in runs per/9 innings at 4.17, but in their last ten games they are scoring a full run more at 5.26. Texas ranks 12th in runs/9 innings on the season at 4.57 but in their last ten games they’ve improved that number to 5.30. Combined these two teams are on a 13-7 Over streak. Based on the starting pitching, the bullpen use in the first two games and how the teams are producing runs, we like OVER here! |
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07-16-22 | Orioles v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 7.5 Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4 PM ET - We get two hot hitting teams squaring off today in what should be a run-fest for both teams. Over the course of the last fifteen days the Rays are the 3rd highest hitting team in the Bigs, the O’s are 9th. Over that same time span the Rays have produced 76 runs *4th) while Baltimore has scored 59 (14th). Overall for the season, the O’s are averaging 4.22 run/9 innings while Tampa Bay is averaging 4.24. In their last ten games both teams run production is even higher with Baltimore scoring an average of 5.42 runs/9 innings, Tampa Bay 4.81. Baltimore starting pitcher Dean Kremer has impressive numbers on paper at 3-1 with a 2.15 ERA but we expect to see him start to regress as his XFIP of 4.65 is a better indicator of where he stands overall as a pitcher. His counterpart today is Ryan Yarbrough for the Rays who has the second highest XFIP on the board today of 5.76. Yarbrough is 0-4 on the season with a 5.82 ERA. This number is lower than it should be so grab the value with the OVER! |
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07-15-22 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins, 8 PM ET - These two teams just pounded out a combined 28 hits yesterday in the Sox 12-2 win and with both hitters seeing the ball well we expect another high scoring game here. In fact, these teams have squared off seven times already this season and every game, but one has seen 9 or more runs scored. The last time the Twins faced Kopech they pounded him for 8 hits and 6 earned runs in 4.2 innings of work. The right-handed Kopech has 2 no-decisions and 4 losses in his last six starts. In his last five outings he’s given up 27 total hits and 18 earned runs in 25.4 innings of work. The Twins offense is 11th in the league in runs/9 innings, 7th in average, 5th in OPS and 9th in home runs. The White Sox have hit well all season with the 4th best team batting average, but it hasn’t translated to runs where they rank 17th. Chicago has seen their run production go up dramatically in recent weeks though as they have scored 77 total runs in their last 15 games which is the second highest number in the Majors behind only the Yankees. In their last ten games they are hitting .310 as a team against lefties and scoring 5.51 runs/9 innings. Those numbers are significant considering they will see the Twins left-handed starter Devin Smeltzer who is 4-2 on the year with a 3.92 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Smeltzer has allowed 11 total earned runs in his last three starters along with 18 hits in 15.1 innings of work. In his most recent outing, he was shelled for 8 hits and 7 earned runs against Texas. |
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07-14-22 | Mariners v. Rangers -118 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
#972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -120 over Seattle Mariners, Thursday at 8 PM ET - Seattle has been red hot but this is a terrible spot for them and we’ll fade the M’s tonight. They played a doubleheader yesterday in Washington including a game last night followed by travel to Texas. In their 2-1 win last night, the Mariners went with a bullpen game using 5 pitchers with none lasting more than 3 innings. In their first game of the DH yesterday, Seattle used 4 different relievers so their bullpen is a bit stretched for tonight’s game. They will go with Gonzalez as their starting pitcher tonight and he has been overvalued all season. His ERA is 3.24 but his xERA is 4.64 and his xFIP is 4.99 which is the third highest of any starting pitcher today. The M’s have won only 6 of his 17 starts this season. He’s facing a Texas line up that has been very good all season vs left handed pitchers. The Rangers are averaging 5.9 RPG this season and 6 RPG at home vs lefties. Gonzalez has faced Texas twice this season, the Rangers won both games and scored 9 total runs in his 11.2 innings pitched. While Seattle is in a tough travel spot, Texas will be playing their 7th straight home game and they are 4-2 thus far on their home stand. They will send lefty Perez to the mound. We look for him to bounce back after a rare poor outing vs Minnesota in his most recent start. For the season Perez has an ERA of 2.72 and in his only performance vs Seattle this year he allowed 2 ER’s in 6 innings pitched. Unlike Texas, the Mariners have not been good vs southpaws this season ranking 23rd in MLB with a .235 batting average. Seattle’s run comes to an end tonight in Texas. Take the Rangers |
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07-13-22 | Astros v. Angels UNDER 7 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
#919/920 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 7 Runs – Houston Astros vs LA Angels, Wednesday at 9:35 PM ET - Yesterday these 2 scored 11 runs with Houston winning 6-5 but the 2 teams combined for only 10 hits which normally would equate to around 5 runs. Nearly half of the runs scored yesterday (5) came in the final 3 innings and only 6 of the 11 runs were actually earned runs. Tonight we anticipate a very low scoring game with 2 outstanding starters on the mound. Ohtani goes for the Angels and he’s been absolutely unhittable as of late. He’s allowed just 2 ER’s in his last 34 innings and he’s allowed a total of 18 baserunners during that stretch! He hasn’t faced LA yet this season but his historical numbers are very good allowing a batting average of .188 lifetime vs current Angel hitters. Houston goes with Javier tonight and he faced LA on July 1st and allowed a total of 1 baserunner in 7 innings pitched. Opponents are hitting just .176 vs Javier this season and he’s facing an LA lineup that has been terrible as of late with a batting average of .177 over their last 10 games. The LA offense has put up more than 4 runs only twice in their last 15 games. Both starters are big strikeout pitchers with each averaging over 12 K’s per 9 innings. If you combine their stats on the season, Ohtani & Javier are averaging 25 K’s per 9 innings and just 5 walks. This one should be low scoring. |
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07-12-22 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 0-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
#960 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 9:45 PM ET - The Giants lost the series opener last night 4-3 and we expect a bounce back here with their top starter on the mound. Logan Webb has been very solid all season for the Giants with an ERA of 2.98 and he has allowed more than 3 ER’s just twice in his 17 starts. He’s been better at home with an ERA of 2.63 and he’s pitching outstanding right now with an ERA of 1.80 over his last 3 starts. Arizona’s offense has been solid over their last 10 games (despite 4-6 record) but they’ve faced only 1 starter during that stretch with an ERA of less than 4.00. We expect Arizona’s hitters to struggle tonight finally facing a top of the line starter. The Giants offense, on the other hand, should have a field day facing Dallas Keuchel. He has been terrible all season showing zero signs of a potential turn around. Keuchel has an ERA of 7.63 and opposing hitters have a batting average of .322 vs him. Not only are teams hitting the ball hard off him he’s also walking nearly 5 batters per 9 innings which has pushed his WHIP on the season to almost 2.00. On the road he’s been a trainwreck with an ERA of 11.81 and he’s allowed an absolutely ridiculous 38 baserunners in just 16 innings! SF ranks 5th in MLB in RPG and they are averaging over 5 RPG vs left handers this season. The Giants should rake offensively facing Keuchel until he turns the game over to the 8th worst bullpen (ERA) in MLB. Despite last night’s tight loss, San Francisco has dominated this series at home winning 17 of the last 21 meetings. We like them to win this one by 2+ runs. |
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07-11-22 | Mets v. Braves UNDER 7 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 105 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
#905/906 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 7 Runs – NY Mets vs Atlanta Braves, Monday at 7:20 PM ET - Both teams have their top starters on the mound tonight and we expect a low scoring battle. Scherzer came back from a stint on the DL on July 5th to make a start vs Cincinnati. He looked like he hadn’t missed a beat allowing just 2 hits and 0 ER’s in 6 IP. He racked up 11 strike outs in those 6 innings. On the season opponents are hitting just .198 vs Scherzer and he’s allowed only 48 total baserunners in 57+ innings. He has not faced Atlanta yet this season. Lefty Fried takes the hill for Atlanta and he’s been just as impressive. His ERA on the season is 2.52 and he’s allowed just 4 ER’s in his last 4 starts. Fried also has not allowed a HR since June 9th and is giving up just 0.50 HR’s per 9 innings this season. The Mets have struggled vs lefties this year averaging just 3.79 RPG on the road with a batting average of .239 overall vs southpaws. In his only meeting vs NY this year, Fried allowed 2 ER’s in 6 innings. Both are high strikeout pitchers and both walk only 1.5 batters per 9 innings so we look for very few baserunners tonight. Each bullpen ranks in the top 10 (Atlanta 4th & NYM 10th) so when the starters do exit we should be OK. These 2 NL East rivals have met 4 times this year and averaged just 7.5 total RPG in those meetings. With their top starters going here, we look for another pitcher’s duel. |
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07-10-22 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* HOUSTON ASTROS Run Line -1.5 (even) vs. Oakland A’s, 4 PM ET - This is as much a play against the A’s as it is a play on the Astros. Oakland is the worst offense in baseball ranking last in runs/9 innings, team average (.209), OPS and are 29th in home runs per game. This A’s team averages just 3.26 runs per game on the season and only 2.90 runs per game their last ten. They will face Jake Orduzzi who is coming off a bad outing against the hot-hitting Royals but expect a better start here versus this pathetic offense. In their last ten games the A’s are hitting just .197 against right-handed starters and scoring an average of 3.21 runs/9 innings in that span. Houston should bounce back here and have been “money” when coming off a loss winning 72% of their games by an average of +1.5 runs per game. Houston is +11 total hits in the two games of this series and will put up runs in this one. The Astros have the 11th best scoring offense in MLB at 4.57 runs/9 innings, rank 16th in team batting average, 4th in OPS and 3rd in homeruns. The Astros should put up runs versus the left-handed Cole as Houston is hitting .284 versus Lefties their last ten games, scoring 6.20 runs/9 innings. In their last ten games overall, the Astros are outscoring their opponents by 2.80 runs/9 innings. Fade the horrible hitting A's in this one and back a Houston team that can dominate at the plate. |
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07-09-22 | Angels v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 8.5 L.A. Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles, 4 PM ET - The Angels are struggling at the plate right now with a .200 team batting average their last five games and an average of 2.60 runs/9 innings. Going back even further the Angels are hitting just .190 their last ten games and averaging 2.70 runs/9 innings. L.A. is 25th in runs scored per 9 innings this season, 25th in hitting, 18th in OPS and as a team they strike out 9.82 times per game which is last in the Bigs. It won’t come easy today for the struggling Angel hitters facing Dean Kremer who is 2-1 on the season with a 2.48 ERA and 129 WHIP. The right-handed Kremer should shut down an Angels lineup that is hitting .195 as a team against righties in their last ten games. Baltimore doesn’t have great overall numbers on the season with an offense that is 22nd in runs/9 innings at 4.20, 27th in team batting average at .231 25th in OPS and 27th in strikeouts. Baltimore will have a tough time producing runs against the left-handed starter Sandoval for the Angels who is 3-3 on the year with a 3.09 ERA. The O’s are hitting just .194 and scoring 2.60 runs/9 innings against Lefties their last ten games. Combined these two teams are on a 6-11 Under streak with both teams averaging below 8 total runs per game in their last ten. |
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07-08-22 | Guardians v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
#973/974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Cleveland Guardians vs KC Royals, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - We really like the way KC’s offense is performing right now. They just scored 22 runs in a 4 game series (5.5 RPG) vs Houston who has the best pitching staff in MLB right now. Over their last 10 games the Royals are hitting nearly .270 vs right handed pitchers and their games have averaged 9.7 total runs during that stretch. They’ll face Civale for Cleveland who has an ERA of 7.40 and opposing hitters have a batting average of .296. He’s been really poor in his 5 road starts this season with an ERA of almost 10.00! In his 5 road starts, the opponents have scored a total of 42 runs which is an average of 8.4 RPG. The Guardians are coming off a 4 games series in which they were swept @ Detroit and their pitching staff as a whole allowed 28 runs in that series (7 RPG) to the light hitting Tigers. Cleveland should have success offensively vs KC starter Singer who started the season very well but has fallen off as of late. Since the start of June Singer has an ERA of 5.70 and he’s allowed 46 baserunners in those 33 innings. He's also allowed 8 HR’s in those 33 innings and his ERA at home is nearly 5.00 on the season which is much higher than his road ERA. In his 1 meeting with Cleveland this season, Singer pitched 3 innings and allowed 4 ER’s for an ERA of 12.00. Dating back to last season, these 2 A.L. Central foes have averaged 9.9 total RPG over their last 10 meetings. We see a similar outcome tonight and we like the OVER. |
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07-07-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9.5 Runs Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40 PM ET - These same two teams recently meet and produced total runs of 11, 18 and 12 and we see more of the same starting today. In fact, these same two pitchers just squared off in that series and in that game the two teams produced 18 runs, pounded out 21 hits and stranded 12 total baserunners. Dallas Keuchel (Arizona) pitched 5 innings and allowed 6 hits and 6 earned runs. Austin Gomber (Colorado) lasted 5.2 innings, giving up 6 hits and 4 earned runs. Gomber is 4-7 on the season with a 6.53 ERA and 1.45 WHIP and he won’t get much help from a Rockies bullpen which is the 3rd worst in MLB with a 4.75 ERA. Dallas Keuchel was 2-5 for the White Sox with a 7.88 ERA this season before being traded to the D’Backs recently. He is 0-1 for Arizona with a 9.64 ERA in 9.3 inning of work. Arizona has the 6th worst team ERA in the Bigs at 4.39. In their last ten games each, the Rockies games have averaged 9.50 runs per game while the D’Backs and opponents have averaged 11.60. Colorado has pounded left-handed starters of late with a .310 team batting average and 5.77 runs per game over their last ten. In Arizona’s last ten games overall they have combined to 9 or more runs eight times. Bet OVER here. |
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07-06-22 | Angels v. Marlins UNDER 7 | Top | 5-2 | Push | 0 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
#976/976 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – LA Angels vs Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET - The Angels offense has fallen off a cliff as of late. In their last 4 games they have scored a grand total of 5 runs on 11 TOTAL hits! That’s an average of 1.25 runs on 2.75 hits per game their last 4. Going back further the Angels are averaging 2.6 RPG with a batting average of only .183 their last 10 games. LA will be facing left hander Rogers tonight and while his numbers haven’t been great this season, his xFIP and xERA are almost a full run less than his actual ERA while his BABIP is quite high at .317 telling his he’s been unlucky. The Angels have seen very little of Rogers in the past (just 4 total plate appearances) and they have struggled vs lefties ranking 24th in batting average (.229) while averaging just 3.6 RPG. Miami’s offense hasn’t been great either as of late averaging just 3.5 RPG over their last 10. They have been held to 3 runs or fewer in 8 of their last 11 games. We don’t expect them to break out of their slump vs LA’s Ohtani who has been fantastic on the mound allowing just 1 ER in his last 4 starts spanning 27 innings. He’s striking out over 12 batters per 9 innings which is bad news for a Miami offense that K’s almost 9 times per 9 innings (26th in MLB). Last night Miami topped the Angels 2-1 and the teams combined for just 11 total hits. We see a similar outcome tonight and we grab the Under. |
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07-05-22 | Twins v. White Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 9.5 Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox, 8:10 PM ET - To start with both teams have favored the Under this season and most recently they are a combined 12-6 Under in their last 18 games. In fact, in both teams last ten games the Twins and their opponents have averaged 7.80 runs per game, the White Sox and their foes have averaged 8.20 RPG. The Twins send Chris Archer to the hill with his 2-3 overall record and 3.08 ERA. In his last four starts Archers has given up just 9 total hits and 3 earned runs in 17 innings of work. Michael Kopech has pitched better than his 2-5 record with a 2.78 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. In Kopech’s last ten starts the White Sox and opponents have topped 9 runs just three times. Minnesota is averaging 4.52 runs/9 innings (12th) while the White Sox are 21st in runs/9 innings at 4.24. The numbers also suggest a lower scoring game when it comes to these teams playing home/away facing right-handed starters (both righties here). Minnesota averages 4.79 runs per 9 innings when away from home, Chicago averages 3.62 runs/9 innings. |
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07-04-22 | Royals v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
#970 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Kansas City Royals, Monday at 4:10 PM ET - We were on the red hot Astros -1.5 yesterday at home vs the Angels and picked up a 4-2 win. Houston has now won 14 of their last 17 games with 11 of those wins coming by at least 2 runs. As we mentioned yesterday, their schedule during that stretch has been very tough as well including 9 games vs the Yankees & Mets. In their 3 games series vs the Angels, the Astros outscored LA 21-4 and had 33 hits to just 8 for LA. Houston has the top pitching staff in the Majors and today they bring Odorizzi off the DL to make his first start since mid May. He was solid prior to his injury allowing more than 3 ER’s just once in his 7 starts with a home ERA of 2.19. Odorizzi looked good in his 2 rehab starts in the Minors allowing 5 hits in 8 innings. We don’t expect him to pitch deep into this one but we’re fine with that as he is backed up by the top bullpen in MLB with an ERA of 2.65. The Houston pitching staff as a whole has been fantastic all season long and especially as of late allowing 2 runs or fewer in 8 of their last 9 games. KC ranks 24th or lower in RPG, OPS, and HR per 9 innings so we don’t expect them to do much offensively in this game. Houston’s offense has kicked it into high gear averaging 5 RPG over their last and their average winning margin over that stretch is almost +3 RPG. They’ll face KC starter Heasley who has only 1 win on the season and has allowed 68 baserunners in just 45 innings. While Houston has the top bullpen in the league, KC has the 3rd worst bullpen ERA and the 2nd worst WHIP. KC is 19 games below .500 with a run differential of -99 on the season. Houston is 24 games above .500 with a run differential of +90 and playing their best baseball of the season. We’ll lay the -1.5 here. |
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07-03-22 | Rays v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays, 1:37 PM ET - This will be the 5th game of the series with each team winning two of the four games. Tampa Bay took the double-header sweep yesterday with a 6-2 win and 11-5 victory. Both teams have used their bullpens extensively which means they’ll need strong outings from the starters, and we don’t see that happening in this one. Both teams have hot bats right now as they combined for 25 hits in Game 2 yesterday and 18 in Game 1. The night before they belted out 20 hits in their 11-run game. The opening game of the series had just 5 runs scored but they had 14 total hits and should have produced at least 7 runs in that game. Shane Baz will get the start for Tampa Bay and in 4 starts he is 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA with three of those four contests finishing with 8 or more runs. In his two road starts he has a 5.40 ERA. Baz may be in trouble against this Jays lineup that is hitting .282 against right-handed starters their last ten games and scoring an average of 6.40 runs/9 innings. The Blue Jays will counter with Ross Stripling who is 4-2 on the season with a 3.12 ERA. In the last three games Stripling has started the Rays and their opponents have scored 11, 14 and 15 total runs. Without strong bullpens we should see plenty of runs in this one. |
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07-02-22 | Rangers +120 v. Mets | Top | 7-3 | Win | 120 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
#979 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas +115 over NY Mets, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - We’re getting the better starting pitcher and the better bullpen as a money line underdog in this one. Perez has been great all season for the Rangers with an ERA of 2.22 and he has allowed just 2 HR’s in 92 IP this season. He has allowed more than 3 ER’s just 2 times in his 15 starts this season. He’s facing a NYM lineup that is struggling right now. They have won just 4 of their last 10 games and their batting average during that stretch is just .210. The Mets are averaging only 3 RPG over their last 10 and for the season they are putting up 0.8 fewer runs per game vs left handers. We think they struggle with Perez today. Williams will start for NY and he’s mainly a reliever that has been pushed into a starting role at times this season. His record is just 1-4 on the season and over his last 3 appearances his ERA is 4.15 and his WHIP is 1.62. We feel Texas is a bit undervalued right now as they have a losing record but a plus run differential. They are also better on the road this season with a .500 record away from home and they are outscoring opponents 4.6 – 4.0 on the road this season. We like the Rangers as a dog with their top starter on the mound today. |
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07-01-22 | Brewers -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 19-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-115) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, 7PM ET - We are not ready to lay a big price with the Brewers and Burnes here but we will bet the value of the run line. Burnes is Milwaukee’s best pitcher with a 6-4 record, 2.41 ERA and 0.92 WHIP on the season. In his last 4 starts he is 3-1, having allowed a total of 6 earned runs in 24.3 innings of work. Burnes on the road this season has been nearly unhittable with a 3-1 record and 1.64 ERA. Milwaukee also has one of the better bullpens in the Bigs so after a strong start by Burnes they’ll close the door on a Pirates team that is 28th in runs/9 innings, 28th in team batting average, 28th in OPS. Yesterday the Brewers pounded out more hits (12) than the Pirates but got a horrible start from Houser in their 7-8 loss. The Pirates are sending Contreras to the Hill who is 2-1 on the season with a 2.76 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. In his last four starts Contreras has allowed 8 earned runs in 18.3 innings of work. Most recently he had some control issues against Tampa Bay with 5 walks. Milwaukee is 13th in runs/9 innings, 14th in OPS and 4th in homeruns. Milwaukee scores more than 1 full run per game against right-hander starters than the Pirates do and Pittsburgh is 27th in the league in total run differential at minus -100 on the season. After a loss yesterday we like Milwaukee to bounce back here big. |
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06-30-22 | Reds +111 v. Cubs | Top | 7-15 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
#955 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Reds +110 over Chicago Cubs, Thursday at 8 PM ET - The Reds have had a solid road trip with a 3-2 record including taking 2 of 3 @ San Francisco. These 2 have split the first 2 games of this series and we like Cincinnati to take the finale. Despite the split thus far, the Reds have outhit the Cubs in both games piling up 24 hits so far in this series. We like the pitching match up here for Cincinnati with Ashcraft on the mound, a pitcher that none of the Cubs hitters have ever seen. Ashcraft was called up in late May and allowed just 3 ER’s through his first 4 starts. He then had a few rough outings but impressed us last week when he bounced back and pitched great @ San Francisco (8 IP, 2 ER’s, and 8 strikeouts). His ERA on the season is 3.27 and his xERA is actually a bit lower at 3.23. He’s make 7 starts this year and the Reds have won 6 of those games. We look for Cincinnati’s offense to have solid success today vs Cubs starter Hendricks. They faced him a month ago and put up 4 runs in 4 innings. The Cincinnati hitters should also be very comfortable facing Hendricks as they’ve had well over 100 plate appearances vs him with a lifetime BA of .328. Hendricks has won just 1 game at home this season and his ERA is north of 5.00. Both bullpens are poor (bottom 5 in MLB) so that’s a crapshoot but we expect Cincinnati to have a cushion heading into the late innings. Since starting the season 3-22, the Reds have actually played near .500 baseball with a record of 23-26 their last 49. The Cubs, on the other hand, are just 14-26 over their last 40 games and their home field advantage has been non-existent with an identical record of 14-26 this year at Wrigley. Take the Reds tonight as a slight money line underdog. |
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06-29-22 | Padres -124 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
#903 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego -130 over Arizona, Wednesday at 3:40 PM ET - San Diego just swept Arizona last week at home in a 3 games series outscoring the DBacks 17-7. In last night’s game, the Padres led 6-0 entering the bottom of the 7th and Arizona rallied very late for a 7-6 win vs a normally solid San Diego bullpen. We expect the much better team to bounce back this afternoon with a win. The Padres are 14 games above .500 and have the 3rd best run differential in the N.L. at +63. They are also 24-15 on the road this season. Arizona is 7 games below .500 and they have a run differential of -47, 6th worst in the N.L. The DBacks have a losing home record and are getting outscored 4.5-3.9 per game at Chase Field. Arizona starter Bumgarner has an ERA of 3.72 but hasn’t pitched as well as that might indicate with an xERA of 4.67 and an xFIP of 4.75. San Diego has been much better vs lefties compared to right handers this season especially on the road where they average almost 6 RPG vs south paws. They faced Bumgarner at home last week and put up 6 runs on 9 hits in just 4 innings in a 10-4 win. Clevinger gets the start for the Padres and he’s been solid as a stater allowing just 4 ER’s in his 4 starts this year. That includes a game vs Arizona last week in which he allowed 1 ER in 4 innings of work. We look for Clevinger to go 4 or 5 innings and then San Diego’s bullpen (top 10 in ERA and #1 in MLB in WHIP) takes over with a chance to redeem themselves after last night’s debacle. We’ll take the much better team in a bounce back spot at a fairly low money line number. |
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06-28-22 | Reds v. Cubs -113 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Cubs -113 vs. Cincinnati Reds, 8 PM ET - We recently played on Thompson and the Cubs when they faced the Yankees in New York and he was shelled early for 5 runs in the 1st inning. Since then he has pitched 12 strong innings, allowing 6 total hits and 1 earned run. He is especially good at home with a 4-0 record and a 1.50 ERA. The Reds will counter with Castillo who has had two bad starts in a row allowing 7 earned runs in 12 innings of work against the Dodgers and D’Backs. When we factor in current hitting metrics for both teams this sets up for a solid win by the home team Cubs. In the Reds last ten games vs. righties they are hitting just .216 with 3.86 runs/9innings. The Cubs in their last 10 vs. right-handed starters are hitting .260 as a team with 4.4 runs/9innings. Back the Cubbies at home with the dominant pitcher on the mound. |
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06-27-22 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9.5 Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays, 7 PM ET - Two of the best offenses in the Bigs square off Monday in what sets up to be a higher scoring game. The Sox rank top 5 in runs/9 innings, team batting average and OPS. Boston has averaged 4.81 runs per game this season but in their last ten games they’ve upped that to 5.10. Toronto’s offense ranks in the top nine in runs/9 innings at 4.77, 4th in team average (.255), 3rd OPS, 5th in home runs and 9th in strikeouts. Much like the Red Sox the Jays scoring is up in their last ten games as they average 5.30 runs/9innings which has led to a 9-1 Over streak. The Red Sox will send Connor Seabold to the mound who has yet to make a Big League start this season and he couldn’t be in a worse situation facing this red-hot Blue Jays lineup on the road. The Jays have Kevin Gausman slated to start and while he has decent overall numbers with a 3.19ERA, he has given up 7 earned runs in his last 8.1 innings of work, both games the Jays lost with 12 and 13 runs being scored. Plenty of runs in this one! |
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06-26-22 | Avalanche -114 v. Lightning | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado Avalanche Money Line -115 over Tampa Bay Lightning, Sunday at 8:05 PM ET - This Avalanche team that lost Game 5 on home ice will bounce back here. That is the kind of loss strong teams bounce back from and certainly the Avs have been the stronger team in terms of how they match up with Tampa Bay in this series. Looking at the shots on goal statistics throughout this series, Colorado continues to be the better of the two teams in generating offense as they have registered 41 more shots on goal in the 5 games thus far and have only been outshot in one of the games. The Avalanche, prior to the Game 5 loss, had won an incredible 15 of their 18 playoff games this season. Also, Colorado started the post-season with a win that was off a loss in their regular season finale. This team knows how to respond off defeat and has won their next game all 3 times this post-season when coming off a loss. The Avalanche set up well for a big bounce back here at a solid money line price because they are on the road here and that keeps the price manageable. Colorado has been a "road warrior" throughout post-season as they have won 8 of their 9 contests away from home. Road team keeps coming up in the modeling run from this one per our computer math model. Look for the Avalanche to hoist the Stanley Cup on Tampa Bay ice by the time the final horn sounds on this one. Lay the short money line price with road favorite Colorado as it is a big value play here. |
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06-25-22 | Reds v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
#960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 7:15 PM ET - We were on the Giants at home last night (-1.5 runs) and they lost to the Reds 4-2. Tonight we get them in a great spot, off a home loss, facing a poor pitcher, and SF has their top pitcher on the mound. Despite that, we’re getting a very similar price at -1.5 Runs (-115) when last night was right around even money at -1.5. Logan Webb has been outstanding for the Giants with an ERA of 3.26 and an xFIP of 3.15. At home he’s been even better with a 4-1 record and a 2.74 ERA. He’s facing a Cincinnati offense that struggles big time on the road with a batting average of just .211 while scoring only 3 RPG (the Reds average 6 RPG at home). On top of that, the Cincinnati lineup is very unfamiliar with Webb with only 11 total plate appearances (0 hits) giving Webb a big advantage especially early in the game. Despite last night’s win, the Reds have still lost 7 of their last 8 games and have a road record of 12-23. Cincy sends left hander Minor to the mound and he’s been poor this season. He has an ERA of 6.97 and opponents are hitting .271 vs him. The Reds are 1-3 in his 4 starts this season and he’s allowed 7 HR’s already in just 4 appearances for an average of 3 HR’s per 9 innings pitched which is terrible. He’s facing a SF offense that is 4th in MLB in RPG, 10th in HR’s per 9 innings, and 11th in OPS so this is not a good match up for Minor. When Minor is done for the evening, the Reds back him up with a bullpen that has the worst ERA and the 2nd worst WHIP in the Majors. The Reds road RPG differential is -1.9 on the season so laying 1.5 is not a stretch here. San Fran sits 6 games above .500 and has a run differential of +40 on the season while Cincinnati is 22 games below .500 and has a differential of -77. Lay the -1.5 at home with the Giants. |
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06-25-22 | A's v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 9.5 Oakland A’s @ Kansas City Royals, 4:10 PM ET - Two of the worst run producing teams in the Big Leagues face off Saturday and we don’t see either team scoring many runs here. The A’s produce just 3.15 runs/9 innings which is 2nd to last in MLB. They are the worst hitting team at .208, 30th in OPS and 29th in home runs. Kansas City isn’t much better averaging 3.92 runs/9 innings with the 21st worst team average at .237, 25th OPS ranking and rank 28th in home runs. In their last thirteen games the A’s and their opponents have scored more than 9.5 runs just three times. In the Royals last ten games they have combined for over 9 runs with their opponent just once. Oakland really struggles to hit right-handed starters with a .201 team average and 2.73 runs per game. The Royals starter Keller has pitched better than his 1-8 record would indicate and he’s coming off his best game of the season which was against this same A’s team. Keller pitched 7 strong innings versus the A’s allowing just 1 hit and 0 earned runs in the Royals 2-0 win. Jared Koenig will take the mound for the A’s with a 1-2 record on the season and a 6.59 ERA. Koenig has inflated numbers with two of his starts coming against the Red Sox and Braves who are 5th and 8th in runs scored per game. His best outing of the season came against this Royals team when he pitched 5.2 innings allowing 0 earned runs and just 2 hits. The numbers don’t add up and we can’t see either team scoring many runs in this setting. |
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06-24-22 | Reds v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
#960 ASA PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Cincinnati, Friday at 10:15 PM ET - The Giants are back home after losing 3 of 4 @ Atlanta. However, all 3 losses in that series were by 1 run and San Francisco actually outhit the Braves and had more men on base despite coming up short in 3 of 4 games. Alex Cobb is on the hill for the Giants and he is pitching well above what his ERA might indicate. His ERA is 5.62 on the season yet his xERA is 2.25 and his xFIP is 2.64 which is the lowest of any starting pitcher on the slate for Friday. He’s been extremely unlucky with a BABIP of .381 and his overall numbers at home are much better than his road numbers. Cincinnati enters this game having lost 7 straight including 6 in a row in their recent home stand. They have allowed an average of over 7 RPG during that 7 games stretch and they’ve given up at least 5 runs in each of those games. Ashcraft gets the call for Cincinnati. The rookie has solid overall numbers but he’s on the decline right now. Over his last 2 starts he’s allowed 10 ER’s in just 9.2 innings on 17 hits. The Giants saw him in late May so they should have a good feel at the plate tonight. When Ashcraft exits, the Reds have the worst bullpen ERA in the Majors and the 2nd worst WHIP. The Giants also have an edge at the plate where they rank 4th in MLB in RPG and put up over 5 RPG at home. The Reds are a night and day difference home and away at the plate. At home they average 6 RPG and on the road just 3 RPG to go along with their 11-23 road record. Their road RPG differential is -2 on the season. On the season San Fran has a run differential of +42 while Cincinnati’s is -79. There is a reason this line opened -180 and jumped to above -200 despite Ashcraft having better ERA number than Cobb, who is drastically undervalued. Lay the -1.5 at home with the Giants. |
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06-24-22 | Nationals v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers, 8 PM ET - Washington will start reliever Paolo Espino and then go with a bullpen mentality throughout this game. Espino has started two games and pitched 8.2 innings while allowing 7 total hits and 3 earned runs. The Nats bullpen is ranked 6th worst in the league with an 4.49ERA, 1.39 WHIP and they’ve give up the 3rd most homeruns on the season at 39 which is bad news facing Texas. The Rangers offensive numbers aren’t great as they rank 17th in runs/9 innings at 4.43 and have a team average of .236 but they are 7th in home runs at 1.23 p/game. Texas is sending right-handed Dane Dunning to the hill who is 1-5 on the season with a 4.38ERA. Dunning has allowed 5 earned runs in 3 of his last five starts, 4 or more four times. We should see the Nationals scoring gradually go up as they are 8th in team average at .252 but average just 4.17 runs/9 innings which is 22nd. In each teams last ten games they have combined with their opponents to average over 9.5 runs per game. We like Over 9 in this one. |
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06-23-22 | Orioles v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 9 runs Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox, 8:10 PM ET - The Orioles are coming off a rain suspended game in Washington and are in a tough travel situation here. The good news is last night’s starter for the O’s, Tyler Wells, pitched 5 strong innings so the bullpen essentially had the night off if they are needed here. That may not be the case as Baltimore sends Dean Kremer to the mound who is 1-1 with a 2.35 ERA and one of his starts was against the Guardians who are 10th in the Big Leagues in scoring. The White Sox are 20th in runs per/9 innings and really struggle against right-handed pitchers with a .242 team average but they average just 3.77 runs per game against righties. Chicago will send Johnny Cueto to the hill who is much better than his 0-3 record. Cueto has a 3.53 ERA and 1.21 WHIP and he’s faced a brutal schedule with games against four teams (of six) that rank in the top half of the league in runs/9 innings. Baltimore will have a tough time scoring here with a lineup that hits just .225 against right-handers on the season, just .180 their last five games with an average of 2.70 runs per game. Both teams struggle to score runs overall and the current pitching matchup sets up for a solid Under wager. |
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06-22-22 | Royals v. Angels -1.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
#974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Angels -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Kansas City, Wednesday at 9:45 PM ET - KC won the first 2 games of this series, each by a single run. This game will end KC’s tough west coast trip with their 9th road game in 10 days before they head home to play Oakland on Friday. The Angels bats got hot with 11 runs yesterday but they lost with Detmers on the mound. LA has now lost 6 straight with Detmers as the starting pitcher. If they can keep their bats hot today vs a mediocre KC pitcher, the Angels should be sitting great with Ohtani on the mound. He’s been their most consistent starter with an ERA of 3.28 and an xFIP of just 2.92, the lowest xFIP of any starting pitcher on Wednesday. He’s allowed just 1 ER in his last 2 starts spanning 13 innings. KC will have a much tougher time offensively tonight against Ohtani who has averaged 11.5 K’s per 9 innings while walking just over 2 batters. We look for LA’s bats to put up solid numbers again tonight facing Daniel Lynch who has the 5th highest xFIP of any starting pitcher today and an ERA of 5.19. Lynch is coming off a solid start, however that was vs the weak hitting A’s (worst hitting team in MLB). In his 3 starts prior to that, he allowed 16 ER’s in just 15 innings allowing a whopping 29 baserunners during that 3 game stretch! If he struggles, which we expect, the bullpen is never much help for KC. They have the 3rd worst ERA and worst WHIP in MLB. Overall, KC’s pitching staff ranks in the bottom 5 in ERA, batting average allowed, OBP allowed, and OPS allowed. Because of that weak pitching staff, the Royals need to score runs to have a chance. In fact, in their 25 wins this year (25-42 record) they have averaged 5.7 RPG. That won’t happen tonight vs Ohtani and the Angels. LA prevents what would be an embarrassing sweep at home vs KC and wins this one by at least 2 runs. |
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06-21-22 | Dodgers v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 9.5 RUNS L.A. Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds, 6:40 PM ET - It all starts with pitching in this match up with a pair of solid starters in Tyler Mahle for the Reds and Tony Gonsolin for the Dodgers. Gonsolin is unbeaten this season at 8-0 with a 1.42 ERA and even though is xFIP is elevated at 3.68, the Reds don’t have a lineup capable of taking advantage. Cincinnati is 16th in runs per game on the season at 4.35, but in their last three games they have produced just 3.33 runs/per game. As a team the Reds hit just .232 against right-handed starters this season, they rank 22nd in overall OPS at .686 and are 18th in strikeouts per game. The Dodgers are one of the highest scoring teams in the league at 5.02 but recently they’ve struggled to put up runs at 3.67 in their most recent three games. Mahle has pitched better than his 2-5 record and 4.46 ERA. His xERA is 3.23 and his xFIP is 3.83. He has pitched four strong games in a row allowing 4 total earned runs in 27.2 innings of work. In Gonsolin’s last five starts he’s allowed 4 total earned runs and pitched a pair of shutouts with all five games staying below the total. Both teams are missing some key offensive personnel and with reliable starters we can’t see this game getting to 10 runs. |
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06-19-22 | Rangers -145 v. Tigers | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -145 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Texas Rangers -140 over Detroit Tigers, Sunday 1:40 PM ET - Detroit will come back to earth after their 14 run game against the Rangers on Saturday. The Tigers offense is the worst in the Majors ranking 30th in Runs/9 innings, 27th in team average of .219, 30th in OPS and 30th in home runs per game. Prior to Saturday the Tigers had not scored 5 or more runs in 35 straight games. The Rangers will send right-hander Dane Dunning to the mound who doesn’t have great overall numbers at 1-4 with a 4.04 ERA but his two most recent losses came against Houston and Cleveland, a pair of teams with a combined 73 wins on the season. Detroit hits just .206 against righties on the season and average 2.52 runs per game. Texas should light-up Tigers starter Drew Hutchison who is 0-4 on the year with a 4.58ERA. In games that Hutchison has started the Tigers are 2-8 SU on the year. The Rangers bounce back here! |
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06-18-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -130 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
#959 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia -1.5 on the Run Line over Washington, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Aaron Nola is on the hill for the Phillies and he’s been outstanding all season. His ERA is 3.48 but his xERA and xFIP are much lower telling us he’s pitching even better than his already solid ERA. He averages 10 K’s per 9 innings and just 1 walk so baserunners will be few for the Nationals on Saturday. Nola has faced current Washington hitters for nearly 100 career plate appearances and held them to a batting average of only .190. The Washington offense ranks 22nd in RPG, 20th in OPS, and 28th in HR’s. At home they average just 3.7 RPG and vs right handers that drops to 3.0 RPG. Gray is on the hill for the Nats and while he’s pitched better over his last few games he’s been a bit lucky to keep his ERA at 4.33. His FIP is 5.43 and he’s stranded 83% of the batters which have reached base which is well above the league average of 70% meaning his ERA could be quite a bit higher had he not gotten a bit lucky with his LOB% numbers. His ERA at home is north of 7.00 and he’s struggled with control walking over 4 per 9 innings. Gray gives up a ton of HR’s (2 per 9 innings) which is a terrible match up vs this red hot Philadelphia offense that is 3rd in MLB averaging 1.33 HR’s per game. The Phillies have won 14 of their last 16 games and over the last 10 they have a batting average of .289 while averaging 6 RPG. Philly has won 10 straight games vs the Nationals and 12 of the last 13 in Washington. We like the Phillies to win this one by 2+ runs vs the struggling Nationals who have an 11-24 record at home this season. |
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06-17-22 | White Sox +146 v. Astros | Top | 3-13 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
#921 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago White Sox +145 over Houston Astros, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Chicago offense has been rolling up big numbers as of late scoring nearly 7 RPG over their last 10. They just outscored the Tigers 27-6 in their 3 game sweep and they’ve scored at least 8 runs in 5 of their last 7 games. They are the #1 hitting team in MLB vs left handers and they face southpaw Valdez tonight for Houston. The Sox rank 1st in batting average vs lefties at .294, 1st in OPS, and average 6.5 RPG on the season. Over their last 10 games, Chicago has put up 11.5 RPG vs left handers! Valdez has solid numbers this year but current Sox hitters have had his number with a lifetime batting average of .302 in 70+ plate appearances. Giolito takes the mound for Chicago. He’s been very good this year with an ERA 3.88 but his xFIP is 3.27 which is actually lower than Valdez. Giolito has been unlucky as well with a BABIP of .352 so he’s absolutely pitching better than his already solid ERA might indicate. He’s faced current Houston hitters more than 100 plate appearances and held them to a batting average of just .204. Houston has a very good 39-24 record, however they haven’t been very good offensively (20th in RPG & 21st in batting average) and their overall run differential at home is just 3.7-3.2. Chicago has a been better on the road with a 17-14 record and they’ve outscored their opponents away from home this season. We think this is a great spot for a significant underdog to pick up a win. |
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06-17-22 | Braves v. Cubs OVER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs, 2:20 PM ET - Let’s face it, the Braves may score enough runs to push this game Over the number. Atlanta has been on fire with 14 straight wins and the offense has been sensational. The Braves have scored 42 runs in their last five games alone and have averaged 7.21PPG during this winning streak. Atlanta is 7th in runs/9 innings at 4.84, 11th in team average at .249 and 1st in OPS and 2nd in home runs at 1.53 per game. The Braves should have plenty of scoring opportunities against Cubs starter Keegan Thompson who has struggled in 3 straight starts, most recently giving up 5 runs to the Yankees in one inning of work. The Cubs pitchers have allowed 6, 19, 12, 4, 18 and 8 runs in their last six games. The Cubs should also get their fair share of scoring opportunities against Charlie Morton of the Braves who is 4-3 on the year with an ERA of 5.67. In his last four starts Morton has allowed a total of 16 runs, 24 hits in 20.1 innings of work. Chicago has scored 14 total runs in their last three games and should contribute enough in this game to push this Over the number. |
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06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -3.5 over Golden State Warriors, Game 6 @ 9 PM ET - It obviously didn’t work in Game 5 but we will stick with our system of betting on great teams off a loss and Boston fits that category as they are now 12-2 SU/ATS their last fourteen off a loss and a near perfect 7-1 SU/ATS in the postseason. Six of their last twelve wins in that situation have come by 20+ points. Boston was 28-13 SU at home during the regular season with the 5th best average point differential of +7PPG. We don’t feel the Celtics will succumb to the pressures of this situation as they have too many good players that can step up in any given situation. The Warriors are 4-5 SU on the road in the playoffs and they weren’t a great road team in the regular season with a 22-19 SU record and a +/- of 1.2PPG. Granted, Steph Curry is not going to miss every 3-pointer he takes in this game as he did in the last, but the Celtics defense will again provide a stiff challenge and make every point tough to come by. This is going to be a 7-game series and we like the Celtics to get a double-digit win in this one. |
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06-16-22 | Brewers v. Mets -125 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Mets -125 vs. Milwaukee Brewers, 7:10 PM ET - The Mets have been nearly unbeatable at home this season with a 20-9 record and the 2nd best total run differential in the Big Leagues at +49 runs. The Mets offense is one of the best in MLB ranking 2nd in runs per 9 innings, 1st in overall average (.263) and 6th in OPS at .740. New York will send Tylor Megill to the mound who is 4-2 on the season with a 4.50ERA. The Mets had won 5 straight games with Megill as the starter before two bad outings in his two most recent starts. The Brewers struggling offense doesn’t pose much of a threat in this game and we like Megill to get back on track. Milwaukee is averaging 4.41 runs/9 innings which ranks 16th in the league and have a team batting average of .231 which is 25th. Milwaukee is 3-11 SU their last fourteen games and they’ve been shutout four times in that stretch and scored 4 or less runs nine times. Ashby has pitched well in spots for Milwaukee but he is coming off 4.2 innings of work against Washington in which he gave up 13 hits and 6 earned runs. The Brewers got a big win yesterday but had their best pitcher on the mound in Burnes who allowed just 5 hits. In a game we may only need 4 runs to win we like the much better offense of the Mets. |
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06-15-22 | Twins -135 v. Mariners | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -135 over Seattle, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - The Twins are coming off a 5-0 loss here last night and we expect a bounce back. They’ve been solid coming off a loss winning over 60% of their games this year in that situation winning by an average score of 5.2-3.9. Seattle is in the opposite situation here as they have struggled to win just 37% of their games coming off a win this season. Minnesota send their ace Sonny Gray to the mound this afternoon. He’s coming off the DL after a pectoral strain but seems to be fine after throwing a simulated game over the weekend. He’s been fabulous this season holding opposing hitters to a batting average of .187 with a WHIP of 0.98. He’s averaging 10.5 K’s per 9 innings which walking just 2.5. Over his last 5 starts he’s struckout 34 batters while allowing just 7 walks. Gray has not allowed more than 2 ER’s in any start this season. Gonzales is the starter for Seattle and while his overall ERA is solid at 3.63 he is due for some serious regression. His xERA is over 5.00 and his xFIP is nearly 5.00 telling us he is not pitching as well as his ERA might indicate. Unlike Gray, his K to walk ratio is not good (5.5 to 3.5) and current Minnesota hitters have a lifetime batting average of .350 vs Gonzales. The Twins have the much better overall offense here ranking in the top 8 in both batting average and OPS. The M’s were a bit lucky yesterday scoring 5 runs on just 6 hits and we like Minnesota to bounce back and pick up the win in today’s series finale before their day off tomorrow. |
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06-14-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 run -105 vs. Baltimore Orioles, 7 PM ET - The Jays have been one of the best hitting teams in the Big Leagues this season with an average of 8.49 hits per game. In their last three games the Blue Jays have pounded out an average of 11.67 hits per game which includes 19 hits last night against the O’s. In their last nine games the Jays have scored 6 or more runs seven times while averaging 7.2 runs per game. Toronto has a top 10 offense in terms of runs scored per 9 innings, team batting average .257, rank 2nd in OPS and 8th in home runs. Conversely, Baltimore averages just 4.05 runs per 9 innings which ranks 25th in the league, hit .230 as a team (26th) and are 25th in OPS. The Orioles also strike out 9.13 times per game which is 26th in the Bigs. Baltimore will send Lyles to the mound to slow down the Jays offense, but we don’t see that happening. Lyles has given up 10 earned runs in his last ten innings of work on 17 hits and that was against Kansas City and Seattle who both rank in the bottom half of MLB in hits per game. Toronto has Yusei Kikuchi scheduled to take the bump for the Jays, who hasn’t been great with a 2-2 record, but the Lefty should have success against this O’s team that is hitting just .230 against Lefties this season and averaging just 3.66 runs/9 innings. Toronto has a +34-run differential on the year which ranks them 9th best in the league. Baltimore has a net differential of -38 runs on the season which is 21st. |
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06-13-22 | Twins v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
#917/918 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Minnesota vs Seattle, Monday at 10:10 PM ET - Both of these teams were shutout yesterday which gives us some value here. We have this total set closer to 9 with our power ratings. Prior to yesterday’s 6-0 loss vs Tampa Bay, the Twins were averaging almost 7 RPG their prior 8 contests. Before Sunday’s 2-0 loss vs Boston, the Mariners were averaging almost 5 RPG their previous 9 games. Both teams are averaging more than 8.5 total RPG this season in their contests and over the last 10 games Minnesota games are averaging 11.6 total RPG and Seattle games are averaging 9.2 total RPG. Each starter is due for a regression as their ERA’s are lower than both their xERA’s and xFIP’s. Minnesota’s Archer has an xFIP of 5.10 and Seattle’s Flexen has an xFIP of 4.98 which is a solid indicator that neither is pitching as well as their actual ERA’s might indicate. Current players on both teams are hitting over .300 lifetime vs each of these 2 starting pitchers. Flexen has faced Minnesota once this season and allowed 3 ER’s in 4 innings allowing 5 hits and 3 walks. Archer has not faced Seattle yet this season. Both bullpens rank in the bottom half of MLB in ERA and Minnesota relievers have allowed the 2nd most HR’s this season (36) while the Seattle bullpen has allowed the 4th most (32). We like this game to get to at least 9 total runs. |
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06-13-22 | Celtics +4 v. Warriors | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics +4 over Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - Steph Curry is great! He literally carried the Warriors to a win in Game 4 with 43 points on 14 of 26 shooting overall and 7 of 14 from Deep. Those types of numbers are tough to duplicate no matter how good you are, and we just don’t see his supporting cast stepping up enough in this one to get a cover. The amazing stat of this series is this, despite every game being decided by 9 or more points, the total points scored by both teams is 422 to 421. This game is going to be tight to the end as both know the winner of this game is more than likely going to win the series. We must stick with our system of betting on great teams off a loss and Boston fits that category as they are 12-1 SU/ATS their last thirteen off a loss and a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS in the postseason. Six of their last twelve wins in that situation have come by 20+ points. Now this doesn’t mean we are backing Boston to win here, but it’s a clear indicator of just how good they are off a loss. The Celtics are 16-3-1 ATS their last twenty on the road and they owned the best average point differential in the NBA during the regular season at +7.6PPG. I know some guys will be on the Moneyline here with Boston and I don’t disagree with the assessment but I can’t ignore the points as Golden State may win but it’s going to be close. |
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06-12-22 | Cubs v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-18 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 8.5 Chicago Cubs @ New York Yankees, 1:35 PM ET - Granted the Yankees are one of the highest scoring teams in the league at 4.90 runs per game but the Cubs are 18th at 4.29 runs per game and this situation warrants an Under wager. It all starts with the pitchers slated to take the bump here with Keegan Thompson for the Cubs and Jameson Taillon. Taillon is 6-1 on the season with 62.2 innings pitched and in three of his last four starts he’s gone 7 or more innings. He has a season ERA of 2.73 and has allowed more than 3 runs just one time this season which was his last outing so expect a focused effort here. What makes Taillon especially hard to score runs on is his base-on-balls percentage of .86 which is one of the better averages in the Big Leagues. The Cubs will counter with Thompson who is also 6-1 on the season with an ERA of 3.17 and WHIP of 1.14. Chicago has really struggled to score runs of late averaging just 2.2 runs per game in their last five games and hitting just .092 with runners in scoring position. Over the course of 3-games, the Cubs currently have the worst team hits per run scored 5.25. At that current rate, if the Cubs get their average hits per game of 8.16 they’ll score under 2 runs in this one. We like a lower scoring game here. Bet UNDER. |
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06-11-22 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
#906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Arizona, Saturday at 4 PM ET - The Phillies are red hot. They’ve won 8 straight and their bats have been smoking to say the least. During their 8 game winning streak they’ve reached at least 6 runs 7 times and they are averaging 7.5 RPG during that stretch. If they get anywhere near that today they should cover this 1.5 easily as the Phillies have their top pitcher Wheeler on the mound. He’s allowed just 6 ER’s in his last 6 starts and while his ERA of 3.14 is very good, his xERA 2.83 and his FIP is 2.30 telling us he’s pitching better than his actual ERA this season. He’s been very unlucky with a BABIP (batting average balls in play) of .338 and has very solid numbers despite that. Arizona’s offense ranks 24th in RPG, 29th in batting average and 22nd in OPS. They are just 3-5 on their current 8 game road trip despite playing Pittsburgh and Cincinnati the first 7 games of that stretch. They’ve averaged just over 4 RPG on this road trip but they’ve been very fortunate as they are averaging just 6.75 hits per game on this road trip. Philly will be facing Bumgarner for Arizona and after a hot start to the season he has been struggling to say the least. After allowing just 4 ER’s in his first 5 starts, Bumgarner has given up 18 ER’s in his last 5 outings. He’s allowed 41 baserunners in his last 29 innings so we look for the Phillies red hot bats to have plenty of opportunities in this game. In yesterday’s game, Philadelphia scored 6 runs in the first 2 innings vs Arizona ace Zach Gallen who had allowed more than 2 ER’s just ONCE all season. The Phillies are 29-29 on the season yet have a run differential of +36. Arizona is 28-32 with a run differential of -44. We think Arizona will struggle offensively today vs Wheeler while Philly will continue their onslaught at the plate. Lay the 1.5 runs (-115) in this game. |
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06-10-22 | Warriors v. Celtics OVER 214 | Top | 107-97 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 213.5 Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics, Game 4 9 PM ET - Two of the three meetings have finished with more than tonight’s Total posted by Vegas and we like that trend to continue in Game 4. More money and tickets are coming in on the Under here, yet the line has trickled up which tells us to follow the move. In Game 3 the pace of play and shooting had the game on pace for a Total near 230 at the end of the 3rd quarter but then the Warriors couldn’t make a shot in the 4th. Golden State scored just 11-points in the final quarter on 5 of 15 shooting including 1-8 performance from the 3-point line. Golden State shot 46% overall and 38% from beyond the arc. Klay Thompson finally found his stroke scoring 25-points. Boston had 3 players score 20+ and haven’t had problems hunting shots against the Warriors in two of the three games where they shot 51% in Game 1 and 48% in Game 3. The Celtics averaged 110PPG at home this season and held the 12th best offensive efficiency rating at home. The Warriors have been the 3rd best offensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs at 1.160-points per possession. Our model is projecting 221 total points in this game. Bet OVER. |
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06-10-22 | Cubs v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
#976 ASA TOP PLAY ON NY Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line over Chicago Cubs, Friday at 7 PM ET - We’ll lay -1.5 runs (-120) with the Yanks here who have the largest run differential in MLB at +104 which equates to an average score of 4.9 – 3.0. At home they’ve beaten teams by an average of 2 RPG and over their last 10 games their margin of victory is +3.1 RPG. NY has the best record in the Majors at 41-16 and at home they are 23-7. They are red hot offensively right now averaging 6.5 RPG over their last 10 and they’ve gotten to at least 10 runs in 3 of their last 6 games. They’ll face Cubs left hander Miley in this one who is just coming off they DL with a bad shoulder. He’s pitched in only 3 games this season and while his ERA is 3.38 his xFIP is much higher indicating he’s due for a regression. The Cubs step into this game 10 games under .500 and have lost 4 of their last 5 games. They are facing Yankee starter Severino who has an ERA of 2.95 but an xERA of 2.60 and NY has won 8 of the 10 games he has started with 7 of those wins coming by at least 2 runs. NY has the much better bullpen as well in this game. They Yankees have dominated inferior opponents at home with a 69-26 record their last 95 vs teams with a losing record. The Cubs are just 21-47 their last 48 games overall vs a team with a winning record. We like NY to win this one by 2+ runs at home tonight. |
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06-09-22 | Rockies v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -124 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
#906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco -1.5 on Run Line over Colorado, Thursday at 3:45 PM ET - The Rockies send left hander Gomber to the hill who has been a disaster as of late. In his last 2 starts, spanning 6.1 innings, he has allowed 17 ER’s on 17 hits! ON the road this season Gomber has an ERA of almost 7.00 and he’s won just 1 game away from home this year. SF has done well vs lefties averaging just under 6 RPG at home this season. They’ve also hit Gomber very well in the past as current Giant players have a lifetime average of .341 vs the left hander. When he exits, enter the 2nd worst bullpen in all of baseball with an ERA of 5.02. It’s not just the “thin air” in Denver that has caused the poor numbers from the Colorado relievers as their ERA away from home is worse than it is at Coors Field. The SF offense should have a field day at home this afternoon. The Giants will counter with Logan Webb who has a solid 3.82 ERA, however his xERA and xFIP are both lower meaning he’s actually pitching better than his current numbers. He’s a perfect 3-0 at home this season and the Giants have won 6 of his last 8 starts. Last year Webb was 11-3 with an ERA of 2.97 so he has been extremely solid for this team. He’s facing a Colorado team that has only 8 road wins all season which is tied for least in MLB. Their offense falls off a cliff on the road where they average just 3 RPG and only 2.7 RPG vs right handed pitchers. Colorado is getting beat by an average score of 5.5 – 3.0 on the road this season. They are also only 17-35 their last 52 trips to San Francisco. We like the Giants to roll in this one. |