Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-24-22 | Warriors -9 v. Blazers | Top | 132-95 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -9 over Portland Trailblazers, 10 PM ET - The Warriors limped into the All-Star break with losses in 4 of five games, including their most recent 2 games against the Clippers and Nuggets. Portland on the other hand won 4 straight games with quality wins over the Lakers, Bucks and Memphis. The Blazers though were dealt another injury blow as starting center Nurkic (scored 32-points last game) is out for this game which leaves a short-handed Blazer team even more depleted. Portland used to be fantastic at home with a 76-44 SU home record between 2018-2021 but are just 16-16 SU this season with a negative differential of minus -0.8PPG. Golden State struggles can be directly attributed to some poor shooting by Steph Curry who found his stroke in the All-Star game, scoring 50-points. We expect that momentum to carry over here. The Warriors are 4-0 this year when playing on 4 or more days rest with a +12PPG differential. They have beaten the Blazers by double-digits twice already so a third doesn’t seem to be asking too much. Lay the points. |
|||||||
02-24-22 | Cleveland State v. Detroit +1.5 | Top | 67-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
#760 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit +1.5 over Cleveland State, Thursday at 7 PM ET - We jumped on Detroit at home on Sunday vs a red hot Wright State team and picked up a win. The Titans won by 5 points but led by 26 points with just over 12:00 remaining and pretty much dominated a game that Wright State never led. That win moved them to 9-6 in conference play which is quite an accomplishment since 11 of their 15 games have been on the road! Even worse, they played 25 total games this season and only 7 have come at home. They are a perfect 7-0 at home on the season and they’ve won 14 straight as a host dating back to last season. After a 5 game road trip between Feb 4 and Feb 13, Detroit has now played their last 2 games at home, both wins over Northern KY and Wright State, the 3rd and 4th place teams in the Horizon. Cleveland State could be a bit flat here as the clinched the #1 seed in the post-season tourney and conference title @ UWGB on Sunday. In the first meeting back in mid January CSU barely held on for a 2-point win over Detroit at home. The Titans, who are 2nd in the Horizon making 36% of their 3’s, made only 4 of 21 from deep (19%) in that game yet still had a shot to win on the road. Now the Titans are at home where they hit 45% of their 3’s and average 82 PPG with an average winning margin of +18 PPG. We like Detroit to keep their winning ways in tact at home tonight. |
|||||||
02-23-22 | Texas State v. South Alabama -3 | Top | 55-52 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
#726 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Alabama -3 over Texas State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - The 5th place team in the Sun Belt is a 3 point favorite over the 1st place team in the league in this game. That may seem surprising but we have USA rated higher overall and so does Ken Pom. This line says that these teams are basically even on a neutral court and we don’t agree. South Alabama is the better team, especially at home where they are 12-1 SU on the season with their average PPG margin of +20. They allow just 58 PPG at home this season and Texas State has struggled offensively on the road putting up only 65 PPG. We also get the Jaguars off a loss @ Appalachian State on Saturday. Texas State comes in having won 7 straight games yet the oddsmakers still have them as underdogs. The Bobcats have played the easiest schedule in the Sun Belt and 5 of their 7 most recent wins have come vs teams ranked in the bottom 5 in the league. Texas State is just 5-5 on the road with a PPG differential of -4. If you subtract their 2 road games vs teams ranked below 300, the Bobcats are 3-5 on the road with 4 of the 5 losses coming by double digits. These 2 did not meet last year but the home team has covered 6 of the last 7 meetings. Texas State has played 5 of their last 7 games at home and now they face the highest rated team they’ve played on the road this season on conference play. We like South Alabama to win and cover here. |
|||||||
02-22-22 | UNLV v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 62-54 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Nevada -2.5 over UNLV, Tuesday at 11 PM ET - The Rebels are officially overvalued here having covered 6 of their last 7 games. They are coming off 2 huge wins over Fresno and CSU. UNLV was a 5 point home underdog in their game Saturday vs Colorado St (they won by 21) and now they are just a short underdog @ Nevada. This line opened pick-em and immediately moved in Nevada’s favor and we agree with that move. We have Nevada as a 3.5 point favorite so still some value on the host. From January 25 – February 8, the Wolfpack went on a 6 game losing streak and 5 of those losses came at the hands of San Diego State, Colorado State (twice), Fresno State, and Utah State – 4 of the 5 highest rated teams in the league. The other loss during that stretch was @ UNLV by the final score of 69-58. Nevada’s offense was outright bad in that game averaging only 0.88 PPP which was their 2nd worst offensive performance in Mountain West play this season. Part of the problem was their best offensive player, Grant Sherfield (19 PPG, 6 APG, and 4 RPG), was out. He actually missed 3 of Nevada’s 6 games during their losing streak which minimizes those results. Since he's come back from injury, the Pack have a 3-1 SU record and they’ve averaged at least 1.15 PPP in each of their 3 wins. UNLV is just 3-6 SU in true road games this year with a PPG margin of -6 in those contests. Since the start of the 2015 season, these 2 rivals have met 7 times on Nevada’s home court and the Wolfpack have won 6 of those games. We’ll lay the small number here. |
|||||||
02-22-22 | Predators v. Panthers -1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida Panthers Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Nashville Predators, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - Florida is an incredible 23-3 on home ice this season. The Panthers are a huge money line favorite here because of their home dominance as well as the fact that the Predators are slumping badly. We can take advantage of this situation by utilizing the puck line and not having to lay any price to have Florida at -1.5 goals. The Panthers have won 17 of 21 games since late December and scoring at an incredible rate of 4.8 goals per game during this red hot stretch! Compare this to the slumping Predators. Nashville has lost 4 straight and 9 of 13 games. Also, the Predators have lost 5 of last 6 road games and we just do not expect the Preds to be able to score enough to keep up with the most dynamic offense in the league! Nashville has scored only 2.2 goals per game during their current 4-game losing streak. Florida, on the other hand, has scored 4 or more goals in regulation time in 15 of the last 21 games. Home team in a blowout per our computer math model. Laying the 1.5 goals with home favorite Florida is the value play here. |
|||||||
02-22-22 | Michigan State +6.5 v. Iowa | Top | 60-86 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
#615 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State +6.5 over Iowa, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Love this spot for MSU. A definite buy low, sell high situation. The Spartans have lost 4 of their last 5 games including 2 in a row @ Penn State and at home vs Illinois. Iowa has won 4 of their last 5 including a big road upset on Saturday @ Ohio State. The Hawkeyes were +5.5 in that game @ OSU and now they are laying 6 or 6.5 at home vs Michigan State. We have OSU & MSU rated only a few spots apart in our power ratings so this is a big adjustment in our opinion. For comparison’s sake let’s take a look at some MSU road lines along with a few Iowa home lines. MSU was +3 @ Wisconsin (and won outright), +2 @ Illinois (and lost by 1), and favored in every other Big 10 road game. Iowa at home was an underdog vs Purdue (and lost), favored by 5 vs Michigan (and lost), and favored by 4.5 vs Indiana. The 3 highest rated teams Iowa has played at home (Illinois, Purdue, and Michigan) all beat them on their own court. This line is set too high based on recent results. Sparty has proven they can get it done on the road with a 5-3 SU record including 2-0 ATS as an underdog. Iowa has a grand total of ONE win this year vs a team ranked inside Ken Pom’s top 45 and that was Saturday vs Ohio State. They are 1-6 SU overall vs top 45 games and Michigan State sits at #27. MSU is the much better defensive team in this one and the Hawkeyes have had problems with teams that are strong on the offensive glass which the Spartans are. Michigan State is also won of the top 3 point shooting teams in the nation (9th) and they make 80% of their FT’s in conference play. We think this one will be tight and we’ll take the generous points. |
|||||||
02-21-22 | Penn State v. Maryland UNDER 129 | Top | 61-67 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
#867/868 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 129 Points – Penn State vs Maryland, Monday at 7 PM ET - PSU is the slowest paced team in the Big 10 and one of the slowest in the nation (351st out of 358 teams). They limit possessions and make most games they play in low scoring affairs. Their Big 10 games average 129 points which is the lowest in the league. The Nittany Lions are last in the league in scoring and tied for 1st in PPG allowed. Since January 8th (last 10 games) PSU games have scored more than 132 points (in regulation) just ONE time. Their last 10 games have averaged just 120.8 total points if we subtract the OT points in their game vs Iowa. They’ve even been able to slow down the fast paced teams in the conference. PSU has faced the 4 fastest paced teams in the league (Nebraska, Iowa, NW, and Wisconsin) 4 times this season and those games have averaged 123 total points. Maryland is a middle of the pack offense in the Big 10. They rank 7th in efficiency and 10th in FG%. We don’t see them having great success vs a PSU defense that ranks in the top 40 in defensive efficiency. The Terps are decent, not great defensively, allowing just under 1.00 PPP on the season (105th nationally). However, they are facing a Penn State offense that is one of the worst in the Big 10 averaging less than 1.00 PPP in conference play (12th out of 14 teams). In their 2 games last year these two totaled 105 and 127 points. This one won’t be pretty. Low scoring and we like the UNDER. |
|||||||
02-20-22 | Wright State v. Detroit +1.5 | Top | 75-80 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
#820 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit +1.5 over Wright State, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The fact that Detroit has a record above .500 in the Horizon is amazing. They are 8-6 in conference play and have played 11 of those 14 games on the road! You read that correctly. They’ve only played 3 home games in Horizon League play. Even worse, they played 24 total games this season and only 6 have come at home. They are a perfect 6-0 at home on the season. They beat Northern Kentucky here at home on Friday night and they close out the season with 3 more at home including today’s game vs Wright State. The Raiders are coming off a huge road upset on Friday night knocking off 2nd place Oakland 78-74. Now on the road for an early afternoon game means from the time their Friday night game tipped off to the start of this game is just 39 hours. That’s a tough turnaround for Wright State to come back to earth and get ready for another solid opponent after a big road win. The Raiders already have 3 conference road losses to teams ranked lower in Ken Pom than this Detroit team. The Titans have been waiting for this rematch as well after getting blasted 90-59 @ Wright State in early February. It was by far their worst performance of the season and they are set to atone for that today at home. WSU was favored by 4 in that game at home and now they are favored in this one on the road. Almost no adjustment in the line which is a mistake. We have Detroit as a small favorite in this game. The Titans shot terribly in the first match up including just 27% from 3 and on the season they are one of the top 3 point shooting teams in the Horizon. Wright State struggles to defend the arc ranking 8th in the league to those results from game 1 were not the norm. Detroit is undervalued due to their overall record which is the result of a brutally tough schedule. The catch Wright in an overconfident spot here as a road favorite. Take Detroit to win at home. |
|||||||
02-19-22 | Tennessee v. Arkansas -3 | Top | 48-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
#674 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas -3 over Tennessee, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Tough spot for Tennessee coming off their big revenge win at home over Kentucky on Tuesday. It was a game the Vols had circled after getting blasted by the Wildcats 107-79 in their first meeting this season. Now they have to go on the road to play a red hot Arkansas team who will have this game circled getting a chance to knock off a highly rated team. The Razors have already proven they can do just that as they beat Auburn here 11 days ago giving the Tigers their only SEC loss and just their 2nd loss of the entire season. Arkansas has won 10 of their last 11 games to move into 3rd place in the SEC, one game behind Tennessee. Their only loss during that 11 game stretch was @ Alabama by 1 point. The Vols are 3-3 on the road in conference play with all 3 of those wins coming vs teams that all currently have losing records in SEC play (Vandy, South Carolina, and Miss St). They’ve faced 3 top half of the conference teams on the road and lost all 3 vs Kentucky, LSU, and Alabama. The Vols have averaged just 69 PPG on the road and they are taking on an Arkansas team that put up 82 PPG at home and limits their opponents to just 65 PPG. Their defense ranks #1 in the SEC (conference games) in defensive efficiency and they are allowing opponents to hit only 29% of their 3’s which will be key vs a UT team that shoots a lot of them. The Razorbacks have been nearly unbeatable at home winning 32 of their las 34 games here at Bud Walton Arena and the last time UT won here was way back in 2009. We don’t get Arkansas at home as a low favorite like this very often and we’re going to take advantage of it. The Razors lost most recent meeting between these teams last January but that one was at Tennessee. Now they avenge that loss as they catch the Vols off the huge revenge win versus Kentucky. Great set up here and value with the home team and we take advantage of it. |
|||||||
02-19-22 | Georgia State v. Georgia Southern UNDER 133.5 | Top | 58-49 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
#655/656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Under 133.5 Points – Georgia State vs Georgia Southern, Saturday at 3 PM ET - We used this Under on Thursday night and lost. Ga State beat Ga Southern 79-63 yet this total for Saturday came out at the exact same total, not higher as you might expect. That’s because in Thursday’s game there were a few outliers that pushed the game over the total. Georgia State averaged 1.16 PPP in that win which is WAY over their Sun Belt average of 0.97 PPP. Georgia Southern’s defense was poor to say the least as they have allowed just 1.02 PPP in conference play this season. We expect them to put a big emphasis on the defensive end and slow Ga State down on Saturday. Georgia State’s defense has been locked in to say the least. They rank #1 in defensive efficiency in the Sun Belt allowing a paltry 0.92 points per possession. They held the Eagles to right around that number on Thursday (0.93 PPP). The 63 points Ga Southern put up was the most Ga State has allowed since February 3rd. Going back further, the Panthers have allowed only one of their last 9 opponents to reach 70 points. The Georgia Southern offense still ranks dead last in the Sun Belt in offensive efficiency so we don’t expect them to do much here. Our projections have them in the 50’s in this game. The Eagles have gotten to 70 points just ONCE (in regulation) in their 13 conference games. Despite Thursday’s output of 79 points, which was the most Ga State has scored this season in Sun Belt play, the Panthers offense is not good. They 10th in offensive efficiency and 12th (out of 12) in eFG%. These 2 teams are the WORST 3 point shooting teams in the conference ranking 11th & 12th with both hitting barely over 25% of their attempts from deep. Both defenses make their opponents work hard for shots taking lots of time off the clock. We’ll come back with the UNDER on Saturday. |
|||||||
02-18-22 | Butler +8.5 v. St. John's | Top | 57-91 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
#865 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Butler +8.5 over St Johns, Friday at 5 PM ET - These 2 played just 2 weeks ago and St Johns squeaked out a 75-72 win. The 3 point margin of victory was the Johnnies largest lead of the game and their first lead of the 2nd half came with just 4 minutes remaining in the game. STJ attempted 25 FT’s in the game (made 21) while Butler attempted just 5 FT’s (made 4) and yet still led for the majority of the 2nd half. We don’t expect that to happen again as ST John’s fouls more than any other team in the Big East. The Johnnies are also the worst FT shooting team in the conference hitting only 64% on the season yet made 84% in the first meeting. Butler is playing their best basketball of the season right now. After starting the Big East with a 2-6 record, the Bulldogs have now won 4 of their last 7 games and their 3 losses have come by a combined 7 points. Two of Butler’s top players, Nze and Hodges, missed their game @ DePaul on Tuesday and they still knocked off the Demons on the road. Both players are listed as game time decisions on Friday and we’ll keep a very close eye on that. If they both play, Butler can absolutely pull this upset. St John’s has already lost 5 home games this year including 4 in conference play. This has been a close series with 4 of the last 6 meetings in this series have been decided by 3 points or less or in OT. Take the points here. |
|||||||
02-17-22 | Bruins +100 v. Islanders | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Bruins -105 over New York Islanders, Thursday at 7:35 PM ET - The Bruins are off a 2-1 loss in the shootout period at the New York Rangers Tuesday. Boston never trailed in the game and led most of the way as they scored very early and the Rangers did not tie it up until nearly the mid-way point of 3rd period. The Bruins are 8-1 the last 9 times this season they were off a loss in which they were held to 1 goal or shutout. We anticipate another strong bounce back performance here as even though the Bruins are still without Brad Marchand - suspension - they get back Patrice Bergeron tonight as he is listed as probable and is ready to go per inside sources and is one of the best players in the league. Boston was knocked out of the playoffs last season by the Islanders but this is not the same Islanders team by any stretch of the imagination. It has been a bit of a "lost season" for New York that is again spiraling downward. New York did defeat Boston earlier this season but the Bruins outshot the Islanders 41 to 28 in that game and the defeat will only strengthen the resolve of a Bruins team fired up for a big bounce back game and ready to avenge the regular season loss and post-season exit at the hands of the Islanders. New York enters this game having lost 3 straight games and 6 of last 8. The biggest concern for the Islanders is the one thing they had going for them this season was Ilya Sorokin had been so strong between the pipes and now he has been in goal in New York's last two games which were losses by a combined 11-5 score. Sorokin has allowed 15 goals last 4 games! Take advantage of the low money line price with the road team here for a Top Game. |
|||||||
02-17-22 | Heat v. Hornets OVER 226 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 226 Miami Heat @ Charlotte Hornets, 7:10 PM ET - Let’s start with the baseline O/U numbers in the NBA. The league average currently in the NBA is 218.2PPG but in the last three weeks games have trended up to 221PPG. The Over is 84-66 in the last three weeks of the NBA season. The Hornets games have finished with the highest average points per game this season at 228.4PPG. The Heat are the best Over team this season with nearly 63% of their games going Over the number. The Hornets play at a break-neck speed with the fastest paced offense in the NBA at 100.8 possessions per game. They also rank 11th in offensive efficiency in large part because they average 16.1PPG via the fast break which is 2nd in the league. What Charlotte doesn’t do well is defend with the 24th ranked defensive efficiency. They also rank 22nd in 3-point percentage defense which doesn’t bode well versus the Heat who are 3rd in the NBA in 3-point percentage offense at 37.5%. The Heat are 7th in offensive efficiency this season and are a top ranked DEFF team but they do have one weakness defensively. Miami is ‘average’ in defending the 3-point line and Charlotte is 9th in 3-point shooting. Miami is also 14th or near average in the NBA is points allowed off the break. These two recently stayed Under the total with 190 points but both teams had poor shooting nights and the Hornets managed just 8-points in the 3rd quarter. Expect a revert back to normal for both teams and a higher scoring game. |
|||||||
02-17-22 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Robert Morris -14.5 | Top | 66-56 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
#774 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Robert Morris -14.5 over IUPUI, Thursday at 7 PM ET - IUPUI has 2 wins on the season vs Spalding and East West. No we didn’t make those up. They are 0-22 SU vs Division 1 teams and 0-13 in Horizon League play with 10 of those 13 losses coming by at least 30 points. Their offense is the worst in college basketball averaging just 51 PPG on the season. If you throw out their games vs the 2 non Division 1 opponents, IUPUI has reached 60 points ONE TIME in 22 games. They rank dead last in the country (358th) in offensive efficiency, 356th in eFG%, and 358th in turnover percentage coughing up the ball over 26% of the time! Laying big points vs this team isn’t as risky as most since they can’t score points and their possessions are limited due to their heavy TO rate. Robert Morris started the conference season losing 7 straight games but they have improved drastically going 5-5 since that poor start. They faced this IUPUI team on the road earlier this month and won by 17. The Colonials average 72 PPG at home which should be more than enough vs this inept IUPUI offense that doesn’t even average 50 PPG on the road (49 PPG). Not only are the Jaguars bad, they’ve gone through massive attrition this year. They are down to 6 scholarship players and that’s it. They have played no more than 6 players in any of their last 8 games. They have ONE player coming off the bench. This is a brutal spot for a thin, bad team as IUPUI is playing their 4th straight road game in the span of 8 days. They’ve traveled to Indiana, Ohio, Illinois, and now Pennsylvania in the last 8 days. Another blowout awaits the Jaguars tonight. |
|||||||
02-17-22 | Georgia Southern v. Georgia State UNDER 131.5 | Top | 63-79 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
#769/770 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 131.5 Points – Georgia Southern vs Georgia State, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Georgia State’s defense has been locked in to say the least. They rank #1 in defensive efficiency in the Sun Belt allowing a paltry 0.92 points per possession. In their last 2 games they have allowed a TOTAL of 99 points vs App State (49) and Coastal Carolina (50). The game prior to that they gave up just 62 points to South Alabama who is the #1 offense in the conference in both efficiency and eFG%. Going back further, the Panthers have allowed only one of their last 8 opponents to reach 70 points. Now they face a Georgia Southern offense that ranks dead last in the Sun Belt in offensive efficiency. The Eagles have been held under 60 points in 4 of their last 6 games (in regulation) and in the other 2 contests they scored 61 & 65 points. They have gotten to 70 points just ONCE (in regulation) in their 12 conference games. Defensively Georgia Southern is solid allowing just 1.00 PPP in Sun Belt games. Georgia State offensive is very poor as well ranking 10th in offensive efficiency and 12th (out of 12) in eFG%. These 2 teams are the WORST 3 point shooting teams in the conference ranking 11th & 12th with both hitting just 25% of their attempts from deep. Because of that, neither team take many 3’s (10th and 12th in the Sun Belt in % of points scored from 3) so this game will be played inside the arc. The Georgia State defense ranks #1 in the conference allowing opponents to make only 41% of their 2 point shots and Georgia Southern allows just 48% inside the arc. Both defenses make it very tough on teams to get good shots which is extends to longer possessions and eats clock. Ga State opponents attempt a shot every 18.2 seconds (321st in the nation) and Ga Southern’s opponents every 18.1 seconds (303rd). The projected score for this game is 70-61 with Ga State sitting as a 9 point favorite and the total at 130.5. Our numbers don’t have Georgia State getting past the mid 60’s and we don’t have Georgia Southern getting out of the 50’s. UNDER is the play here. |
|||||||
02-16-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 117-116 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -5.5 over Denver Nuggets, 10 PM ET - We have an opportunity to buy low with the Warriors here who have lost 3 of their last four games overall, including a most recent loss against the Clippers. That ties into this wager as the Warriors are 12-3 SU off a loss, 8-1 SU at home off a beat. The Warriors are 26-5 SU at home and have the best home court point differential in the league at +12.2PPG. Golden State is coming off a very poor defensive showing against the Clippers and will play with a chip on their shoulder here. The Warriors have #1 ranked defensive efficiency numbers at home this season allowing just 1.019-points per possession. They also have the 8th best offensive efficiency at home The Nuggets will have a size advantage with Jokic but the Nuggets concern comes on the defensive end of the court where they rank 13th in defensive efficiency and 22nd in opponents FG%. The Nuggets are 16-15 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of -0.2PPG. The Nuggets have lost 3 of their last four road games against similar opponents to the Warriors. Golden State has covered 6 of the last seven meetings between these two teams at home and we like them to get a double-digit win in this one. |
|||||||
02-16-22 | Illinois v. Rutgers +4.5 | Top | 59-70 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
#686 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers +4.5 over Illinois, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - The RAC is one of the toughest venues in college basketball. This season alone Rutgers has already beaten Purdue, Michigan St, Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio State here at home. Those are 5 of the top 7 rated teams in the Big 10 with only Wisconsin and Illinois missing off the list. That’s because they haven’t played host to those teams yet and they get their shot at the Illini tonight. The Scarlet Knights are 39-7 SU at home since the start of the 2020 season. On top of that none of those 7 losses have come by double digits so even their setbacks have been close. Rutgers is a sneaky 9-5 in conference play and if the Illini don’t come ready they’ll get knocked off. They may anyway. Rutgers has won 10 of their last 14 games and 3 of those 4 losses have come by 1, 3, and 8 points. Illinois has a huge game vs Michigan State on deck. Their last 2 games they struggled with Northwestern winning by 7 at home and got smoked at Purdue. The Illini are 2-2 their last 4 road games losing big to Purdue & Maryland, squeaking by NW by 3, and winning impressively @ Indiana. Rutgers defense has been impressive all season but it has been great at home. They have allowed just 59 PPG at the RAC on just 39% shooting. Illinois has a point margin of just +3 PPG on the road and this will be one of their toughest road dates of the season. The host has won 8 of the last 10 in this series and we give Rutgers a great shot at the upset. If not, we’re still getting a cushion here at +4.5. |
|||||||
02-15-22 | Celtics v. 76ers +3.5 | Top | 135-87 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +3.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - This is a bad line and a clear over-reaction to the Celtics current hot streak so we will grab the value and play on Philadelphia. Boston is 10-1 SU their last eleven games and gaining ground in the Eastern Conference. At closer look though the current streak might be a little overrated. The best wins came at home over a depleted Hawks and Heat team and the Denver Nuggets. The road wins the Celtics had in that stretch came against a Nets team without Durant, Harden and Irving and versus Orlando, Detroit, New Orleans and Washington. Those four teams have a combined record of 76-155 SU. The 76ers have two straight wins including a solid win over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Philly was dealing with distracting issues during the trade deadline and now are rid of Ben Simmons in the deal for James Harden who is not expected to play tonight. Granted, the 76ers are without Seth Curry now but they were just favored by 1.5-points at home against the Suns and are now a home dog to Boston? That doesn’t add up according to our model. Philly has covered 7 straight in the series and 4 in a row at home. Embiid and company get it done tonight. |
|||||||
02-15-22 | Michigan State v. Penn State +3 | Top | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
#606 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State +3 over Michigan State, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Penn State comes in off 3 straight losses and each of gone to the wire. They lost @ Wisconsin by 2 points, home vs Michigan by 1-point and @ Minnesota by 6. This team has been very solid and competitive at home with wins over Iowa, Indiana, and Rutgers along with that 1 point loss vs Michigan we stated above. The Nittany Lions have covered 6 in a row at home. This is a dangerous spot for MSU who is coming off a huge home win over Indiana and Sparty has a home date with Big 10 leading Illinois this weekend. The Spartans also beat PSU by 16 earlier this year so it might be tough for them to fully focus here with a big look ahead game on deck. They’ve already shown they aren’t great handling short term success as they are 1-5 ATS when coming off a SU win. PSU is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation (351st) and they will turn this game into a crawl which is not how Michigan State likes to play. Versus the 2 slowest paced teams in the Big 10 this year besides Penn State, MSU has been blown out @ Rutgers and played 2 close games vs Minnesota (winning by 2 & 7). Sparty has played the easiest schedule thus far in Big 10 play (PSU has played the 2nd most difficult) and vs bottom half of the league teams on the road they haven’t been overly impressive. They were destroyed @ Rutgers, won @ Maryland by 2, and won @ Northwestern by 6 after trailing by 13. PSU is a very solid defensive team (54th nationally in defensive efficiency) and they hold opponents to just 64 PPG here at home. They have great shot at the home upset here and we’ll take the points. |
|||||||
02-14-22 | Spurs +3.5 v. Bulls | Top | 109-120 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs +3.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8:10 PM ET - We like the Spurs and the points over the short-handed Bulls are expected to be without Zach LaVine here. The Bulls are 21-8 SU at home, yet have the worst average Margin of Victory at home of all the teams that have 20 or more home wins this season. Chicago wins at home by +4.8PPG which is 9th in the NBA. A big reason why the Bulls don’t win by large margins is their lack of defense at home. Chicago ranks 21st in defensive efficiency at home allowing 1.119-points per possession. The Bulls have the best home efficiency numbers in the league at home but will be without one of their main offensive weapons in LaVine. San Antonio is 11-17 SU on the road this season but their average loss margin is -0.4PPG. The Spurs have the 7th best road defensive efficiency numbers in the NBA allowing 1.088PPP. The Spurs have two straight wins as road dogs and we expect them to keep this game close. |
|||||||
02-14-22 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech OVER 118.5 | Top | 53-62 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
#879/880 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 118.5 Points – Virginia vs Virginia Tech, Monday at 7 PM ET - This one might be slow and ugly at times, but our power ratings have this total set at 121 and we think they’ll get over this deflated number. The first meeting was 54-52 in favor of UVA which is most likely why this number dropped from the opener which was much closer to our projection. The 2 teams combined to shoot only 41% in that game and combined to make only 14 FT’s. Their points per possession averages were 0.91 and 0.95 in that first meeting in mid January. Their season averages are 1.14 and 1.08 so both fell well below those numbers. The common misnomer here as that we are not only slow paced (true) but both defenses are top notch (false). Va Tech actually ranks 14th (out of 15) in the ACC in defensive efficiency and 11th in eFG% allowed. The Cavs are nowhere near as staunch defensively as they have been in past seasons ranking 7th in the league in defensive efficiency and 9th in eFG% defense. For the season both offenses have been better than their defenses. VT ranks 19th nationally in offensive efficiency and 91st in defensive efficiency. UVA sits at 71st in offensive efficiency and 87th in defensive efficiency. The Hokie offense is clicking right now scoring more than 70 points in each of their last 6 games for an average of 77 PPG over that stretch. The Cavs have gotten to at least 63 points in 8 straight games. That may not seem like a big deal but with the total sitting where it is, the projected score of this game is VT 61, UVA 57. We like both teams to get to at least 60 here and we’ll grab the OVER. |
|||||||
02-13-22 | Rams -4 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -101 | 37 h 43 m | Show |
#101 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -4 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - The Rams have quietly had a dominating run through the playoffs vs very solid opponents. They have outgained the Cards, Bucs, and Niners by a combined 1200 yards to just 824 for their opponents. Their defense has dominated, holding those opponents to an average of 4.7 YPP and just 18 PPG. To give you an idea of how good those numbers are, Buffalo led the entire NFL this year allowing opponents to average 4.8 YPP. Cincy, on the other hand, has allowed 5.9 YPP in the playoffs while gaining only 5.3 YPP. They’ve been outgained in all 3 games yet still won. Their offense has had 34 possessions in the post-season and scored only 5 TD’s. And those were vs defenses all inferior to this LA Rams unit. They’ve benefited from a +5 turnover margin in the playoffs which has kept them alive. We just don’t see the Bengals doing much offensively here. They’ll struggle to run vs a Ram defensive front that hasn’t allowed a single TEAM in the playoffs to reach 65 rushing yards. If the Bengals are forced into obvious passing downs, the Rams defensive front is the best in the NFL at creating pressure while the Cincinnati offensive line is one of the worst pass protecting units in the league. The Rams are built for the Super Bowl. They’ve had a number of key player additions this season (QB Stafford, WR Beckham & LB Miller to name a few) in their quest to get to this point. This was their goal from the beginning of the season. Cincinnati wasn’t expected to be here and based on their stats thus far in the playoffs, they probably shouldn’t be here. LA lost in the Super Bowl a few years ago and are accustomed to this spot. Cincy is not and had to travel for the 3rd straight time in the playoffs. We don’t think the Rams will have a home field advantage per se, however not having to travel is a bonus. If the turnovers stay even in this game, we have little doubt the Rams win and cover this number. Of course, we have no way of projecting that and TO’s are a huge predictor in the outcome. There is often little to no value so to speak in the Super Bowl line or total. That stands again this year as we have LA favored by exactly 4 with our power ratings. Despite that, we’ll simply side with the better overall team who proved they deserve to be here. |
|||||||
02-13-22 | Wolves -5.5 v. Pacers | Top | 129-120 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5 over Indiana Pacers, 3:10 PM ET - Let’s consider this basic analysis first. Before the trade deadline the Pacers were just a +1.5 home underdog to the Chicago Bulls. They then traded away their two leading scorers in Sabonis and LeVert along with key role player Craig and were +6.5 points at home to the Cavs in the first game after the trade. Yes, they added talented Haliburton and Hield but clearly the oddsmakers feel they will regress in the short-term. The Wolves are off back-to-back losses but had won 5 straight games prior to that with a pair of impressive double-digit wins over the Jazz and Nuggets. The Pacers are on an 0-5 ATS streak while the Wolves are 5-1 ATS their last six games coming off a double-digit loss. As a favorite the Wolves have an average +/- of +9PPG and they have covered 11 of fifteen on the road against sub .500 teams. Don’t be scared off by the number, bet Minnesota. |
|||||||
02-13-22 | Marshall v. UTEP -6 | Top | 88-79 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
#856 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UTEP -6 over Marshall, Sunday at 3 PM ET - We were on Marshall on Thursday night at home vs FIU in what we thought was a perfect setup for the Herd to pick up a win. They played a disappointing game and sent us home with a loss getting upended 72-71. That dropped Marshall to 1-10 SU in CUSA play and we expect them to be flat here going on the road a few days after losing a home game they felt they really needed to win. Speaking of the road, the Herd are 1-9 SU away from home including 0-5 on conference play. All but one of their conference losses have come by more than 10 points with an average loss margin of -15.4 PPG. UTEP is playing well winning 6 of their last 7 with their only loss coming @ North Texas, the #2 rated team in the league, by 8 on Monday. That gives UTEP nearly a full week to get ready for this game and Marshall just played on Thursday as we mentioned. The Miners will give the Marshall offense big time problems in this one. They rank 2nd in CUSA in defensive efficiency, 2nd in eFG% defense, and 1st in 3-point FG% defense. Marshall ranks near the bottom of the conference in offensive efficiency and eFG%. The UTEP defense also creates a lot of turnovers (2nd in conference) and Marshall coughs the ball up a lot (12th in the conference). On the other end the Miners shoot a lot of 3’s and they shoot them well ranking 2nd in CUSA in 3 point FG%. Marshall’s defense ranks 331st at the arc. Lastly if they need to salt this one away late, UTEP hits 77% of their FT’s as a team. This one sets up very nicely for the host. |
|||||||
02-12-22 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 216 | Top | 99-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215.5 LA Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - These two teams just met the other night with the Mavericks winning 112-105 for 217 Total points. Both teams shot well above their season averages with Luke Doncic of the Mavs having a big night with 51-points on 17 of 26 shooting. Dallas made 49% of their FG attempts (season average is 45.4% 19th in NBA) while the Clippers hit 48% (Clippers 22nd in NBA at 45.4%). The pace of play obviously favored the Under which would have cashed had they not both shot it so well. The Mavericks are the 28th slowest paced team in the NBA, the Clippers are 15th. Both teams are exceptional at defending the 3-point line with the Mavs holding the 5th best 3PT% D, the Clippers are 6th. The Clippers have the 9th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA allowing 1.093-points per possession, the Mavericks are better yet ranking 5th at 1.072PPP. The Over is 2-1 this season between these two teams but they had an abnormally hot shooting night on Thursday and barely went Over the number, played on OT game to go Over and then scored 188 in the first meeting of the season. We like UNDER in this one. |
|||||||
02-12-22 | Vanderbilt +12.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 64-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
#743 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Vanderbilt +12.5 over Tennessee, Saturday at 6 PM ET - Vandy is playing their best basketball of the season right now and they are catching Tennessee in a tough spot. The Commodores have won 3 of their last 4 games with their only loss during that stretch coming by 7 points @ Kentucky. The Vols are coming off a huge road win @ Mississippi State in a game that was much closer than the final score which was 72-63. In that win the Vols never led by more than 5 until under 1:00 minute remaining in the game and outscored the Bulldogs 11-2 in the final 3:00 minutes. They played that game without one of their best players, Nkamhoua, who was lost for the season in their game prior to playing MSU. We think that’ll take a toll on UT as we move forward. Tennessee also hosts a huge game on Tuesday with Kentucky coming to town. Good chance they don’t play at their peak here vs a team they beat 68-60 on the road earlier this season. In that game, Vandy led at half and never trailed by more than 8 points. The Commodores match up nicely here as UT takes a lot of 3’s and Vanderbilt is #1 in the SEC defending the arc allowing just 27%. In the first game they held the Vols to just 22% from deep but Tennessee made 9 more FT’s which was the difference in the game. On the other side, almost 40% of Vandy’s points come from beyond the arc (1st in the league) and UT’s defensive weakness is defending the 3 ranking 11th in the SEC. The Dores have proven they can get it done on the road with 4 true road wins this season (including @ Arkansas who is 19-5 overall and 8-3 in the SEC). They actually shoot better on the road this season from both inside and outside the arc. We think they’ll give Tennessee a real scare in this one and we’ll grab double digits. |
|||||||
02-12-22 | Samford v. East Tennessee State OVER 150 | Top | 77-73 | Push | 0 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
#683/684 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 150 Points – Samford vs East Tennessee State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - These 2 met in mid January and easily eclipsed this number with ETSU beating Samford 88-85 for 173 total points. We see this game playing out in a similar fashion. In that first meeting the 2 teams combined to shoot just over 50% which wasn’t surprising as ETSU ranks last (10th) in eFG% defense and defensive efficiency and Samford ranks 7th in eFG% defense. Samford is one of the fastest paced teams in the nation and ranks 2nd in pace in conference play. ETSU sits at 7th in the Southern Conference in pace but they’ve shown they’ll play however their opponent wants to play. The Buccaneers can play slow or fast and in this game it will be fast. The 4 fastest paced teams in the SoCon are Citadel, Samford, Western Carolina, and VMI. When those teams have faced ETSU this season their games have averaged 163 total points with only 1 of those 5 games falling below 150 and that was 148. For the season, the offenses are definitely the strength of both of these teams while their defense fall short. Both rank inside the top 150 in offensive efficiency and inside the top 132 in eFG%. Defensively they both rank outside the top 250 in defensive efficiency and outside the top 280 in eFG% defense. In addition to that, each of the teams offensive strength plays perfectly into their opponents defensive weakness. Samford ranks 46th nationally in 2-point FG% and ETSU’s defense ranks 338th defending inside the arc. ETSU ranks 36th in 3-point FG% and they are facing a Samford defense that ranks 257th defending the arc. These two have gone OVER the total in 9 of their last 10 meetings and they’ve averaged 159 total points in those 10 games. Only once in the last 10 games have these 2 combined to score less than 150 points. We go OVER the total in this one. |
|||||||
02-11-22 | Hornets v. Pistons OVER 226.5 | Top | 141-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 226.5 Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - We know two constants in this matchup and that is pace and poor defense. Both teams are going to play fast which means plenty of possessions to get an Over here. Charlotte is the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA at 100.4 possessions per game, Detroit is 12th at 98.8. Defense, or lack of defense is the other trait both teams share. The Hornets rank 24th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.130-points per possession, the Pistons rank 26th allowing 1.132PPP. We are getting tremendous value here with Charlotte’s recent offense struggles but the main reason they haven’t scored is the defenses they’ve faced. In 6 of their last seven games they’ve faced a team with a top 13 defensive efficiency rating. It will become much easier to score here against this Pistons D that is giving up 112.3PPG. Charlotte is the 9th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA, Detroit is 30th in defending the 3. We get a marginal Total set by the oddsmakers and the value clearly lies with the OVER! |
|||||||
02-11-22 | Detroit v. Youngstown State -115 | Top | 69-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
#884 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Youngstown State -115 over Detroit, Friday at 7 PM ET - What a tough spot this is for Detroit. It’s the Titans 4th road game in 8 days. They played last Friday @ Wright St (Ohio), Saturday @ Northern Kentucky, Wednesday @ Robert Morris (Pennsylvania), and now tonight back in Ohio facing Youngstown St. They were swamped by 21 points in their game last Friday but bounced back with 2 road wins & covers. We feel they are bit overvalued right now as we have YSU as a 4 point favorite with our power ratings. Youngstown is in a much better situation playing their 2nd straight home game after beating the top team in the conference, Oakland, here on Wednesday. The 3 top teams in the Horizon and the only 3 ranked inside the top 100 are Oakland, Cleveland State, and Wright State. The Penguins have proven they can get it done at home beating both Oakland and Wright State while losing to CSU in OT. Despite their recent 2 road wins, Detroit is still just 5-11 on the road this year with a -5 PPG differential. We like how YSU matches up here. Detroit thrives on creating TO’s and they take more 3’s than anyone in the conference. Youngstown ranks 3rd in the Horizon defending the arc allowing just 32% and the are they only turn the ball over 17% of the time (2nd least in the league). The Penguins have beaten the top teams at home and now we get them at a line where they just have to win vs a tired, road weary Detroit team. Lay it. |
|||||||
02-10-22 | Bucks v. Suns -3 | Top | 107-131 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10 PM ET - The Suns are 44-10 SU on the season and clearly playing at another level. Milwaukee is turning the corner and moved to 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. We don’t use “revenge” often in the NBA but that’s the case tonight as the Suns will be at another level emotionally tonight after losing to the Bucks in the Finals last year. The Bucks do have a positive road differential of +3.6PPG on the season but the Suns are 22-5 SU at home this season with the second-best margin of victory at +8.3PPG. Both teams are highly rated in terms of offense, but the difference tonight will be the Suns defense that ranks 4th best in the league in efficiency compared to the Bucks who rank 15th in points allowed per game this season. The energy and home crowd will carry the Suns to a double-digit win here. |
|||||||
02-10-22 | Hurricanes -135 v. Bruins | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina Hurricanes -135 over Boston Bruins, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET - We had our eyes on this spot even before the Patrice Bergeron injury and the Brad Marchand suspension. Now factoring in that Boston will be without two of their top players for this one, we absolutely love this situation! The Hurricanes are one of the best teams in the NHL this season and are off B2B losses. That is a play on situation in and of itself as Carolina has only had one 3-game losing streak this entire season. After a lackluster effort in their most recent game at Ottawa (was 2nd night of B2B and off heartbreaking loss at Toronto), the now-rested Canes will be ready to roll tonight. The Bruins are not only without their two best players, the Hurricanes could get a boost tonight with the return of Teuvo Teravainen as he has been close to returning from injury each of the last two contests and has been a game-time decision in each. Even if he does not play the Hurricanes hold the key personnel edges here with Bergeron and Marchand out for the Bruins. This Boston team has been scuffling for a while now with losses in 4 of their last 6 games. Keep in mind, the Hurricanes had won 16 of 20 games before the B2B losses they just had against the Maple Leafs and Senators. Carolina never should have lost the game at Toronto and then there was a bit of an emotional carry-over into Ottawa that led to them dropping B2B games. Now one of the best teams in the NHL takes advantage of a slumping - and short-handed - Bruins team here. Lay the money line price with the road fave here for a Top Game. |
|||||||
02-10-22 | Florida International v. Marshall -4.5 | Top | 72-71 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
#764 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marshall -4.5 over Florida International, Thursday at 7 PM ET - These 2 played just a few weeks ago and Marshall was favored by -2.5 / -3 on the road in that one. Now we’re getting them at home -4.5 / -5. Great value here. A main reason for the low number is Marshall’s 1-9 CUSA record. Let’s keep in mind the Herd have played the #1 strength of schedule in conference play and #117 overall – the most difficult of any CUSA team. FIU, on the other hand, has played the #310 SOS which is the easiest in CUSA and despite that they are just 3-8 in conference play. In their first meeting FIU pulled off a 4 point win but now Marshall gets them at home where they play much better. In fact, Marshall’s most recent home game was a win over UAB, the top team in the conference. They also played North Texas and MTSU (2 of the top teams in the league) to the wire here before losing tight games. The Herd have played 5 conference home games and 4 of those were vs teams ranked in the top half of CUSA. FIU is 0-8 SU on the road this year losing by an average of 11 PPG while shooting only 37%. They’ve lost 16 straight road games dating back to last season. The Panthers are in a tough schedule spot having played Saturday & Monday already now traveling just a few days later. Marshall has been off since Saturday. FIU has never won @ Marshall. They are 0-7 SU with every loss coming by at least 9 points. We’ll take Marshall here. |
|||||||
02-09-22 | Tennessee v. Mississippi State +1.5 | Top | 72-63 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
#746 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State +1.5 over Tennessee, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Our power ratings have MSU as the favorite in this game so we’re taking the points with the home team. The Bulldogs are an impressive 12-1 SU at home this season where they shoot 50% as a team with an average winning margin of +16 PPG. They are a perfect 5-0 SU at home in SEC play while going 0-5 SU on the road for the largest home/road dichotomy in the league. They are coming off a road loss @ red hot Arkansas (8 straight wins) but played the Razors to the wire (down by 2 with 1:00 minute remaining) before losing. Tennessee is coming off a blowout road win over South Carolina (3rd lowest rated team in the SEC) but the Vols still have a losing road record at 3-4 SU. Their 3 road wins have come vs teams that are currently rated 80th or lower and they just starting forward Nkamhoua (9 PPG / 6 RPG) to a season ending ankle injury vs South Carolina over the weekend. UT’s overall defensive numbers are really high but since getting into SEC play they’ve fallen off drastically. In SEC games only the Vols defense ranks 11th in eFG% allowed, 12th in 3-point % allowed, and 10th in 2-point % allowed. That’s alarming for a team that hangs their hat on defense. MSU ranks 3rd in the SEC in offensive efficiency so they should have plenty of success in this one. Tennessee has just 2 wins in conference play vs top 8 in the league (LSU & Florida both at home), all other wins come vs bottom of the league. They should not be favored in this one and we side with the home dog. |
|||||||
02-09-22 | Bulls -120 v. Hornets | Top | 121-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls Money Line -120 over Charlotte Hornets, 7:40 PM ET - LaMelo Ball has made a big splash in the NBA this season and he’s been rewarded with an All-Star appearance as an alternate. He is dynamic offensively, but arguably the worst defender in the NBA. Charlotte will need to make a correction on the defensive end of the court to really ascend to the next level. The Hornets rank 28th in points allowed per game allowing over 114PPG, allow opponents to make 46.3% of their field goal attempts (20th) and 35.9% of their 3-point attempts (23rd). The Bulls aren’t great defensively, but they are better than the Hornets and rate slightly stronger offensively. Chicago is 5th in offensive efficiency (Hornets (12th) rank 8th in scoring, 1st in FG% and 3rd in 3-point shooting percentage. Charlotte has lost 5 straight game and we don’t see them correcting here against the Bulls who are also off two straight losses to the Suns and 76ers. The Bulls are 22-12 ATS as a favorite and we trust their Big 3 of LaVine, DeRozan and Vucevic much more than the Hornets lineup, especially without Hayward. In the last meeting the Bulls led by as many as 23-points and eventually won by 14. We expect similar results tonight. |
|||||||
02-08-22 | Rockets v. Pelicans UNDER 228.5 | Top | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228.5 Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - These two teams just met the other night and combined for 227 total points. The points for both teams came via great shooting by both teams. The Pelicans hit 53% from the field overall, 41% from beyond the arc (12-29) and made 26 free throws. The Rockets shot above their season averages too with 48% overall and 36% from the 3-point line. To put these numbers into perspective, these two teams rank in the bottom 10 of the league in both FG% and 3-point FG%. Watch for a regression here by both teams as they trend back to the “norm” in this rematch. Houston’s road games average 224 total points, New Orleans home games average 217PPG. The longterm history between these two teams favors the Under with 19 of the last 27 meetings in the Big Easy staying below the total. Bet UNDER here. |
|||||||
02-08-22 | Marquette +7 v. Connecticut | Top | 72-80 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
#605 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette +7 over UConn, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET - Marquette is no doubt the hottest team in the Big East winning 8 of their last 9 with their only loss during that stretch by just 2 points @ Providence who is 10-1 in the Big East and 20-2 overall. The Golden Eagles started this run with a massacre of that same Providence team winning by 30+ points at home giving the Friars their only conference loss this season. Not only did they top the Friars, but Marquette has also beaten Villanova (twice), Seton Hall (twice), and Xavier during this run. We feel UConn is a bit overvalued right now. Half of their Big East wins have been by 8 points or less and their 3 other conference wins were vs Butler (twice) and Georgetown, 2 worst teams in the league. They’ve played the easiest schedule in conference play and they only team they’ve beaten that ranks in the top half of the conference is this Marquette team. They beat the Golden Eagles by 8 on the road when Marquette was in the midst of a 4 game losing streak back in December. Marquette also played that game without one of their top players, Daryl Morsell (13.5 PPG), who is also their top perimeter defender. Even with Morsell out and Marquette in a bit of a slump in mid December, this was still a very close game throughout. The Eagles are now playing at another level as we discussed. UConn is a poor 3-point defensive team (9th in the Big East) while Marquette is the #1 three point shooting team in the conference hitting nearly 40% in league play. The Eagles have 4 regulars that shoot at least 35% from deep. Marquette is also the #1 defense in conference play in terms of efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3-point % allowed. We give them a great shot to win here and getting 6 points gives us a great cushion. |
|||||||
02-07-22 | Kansas v. Texas +1 | Top | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show |
#908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas -1 over Kansas, Monday at 9 PM ET - Any time a top 10 rated team is an underdog it makes us take a look. Most will automatically take the top rated dog but we often look at the favored team depending on the match up. There is a reason that team is favored vs a highly ranked opponent. Texas is very talented team that plays great defense (9th nationally in defensive efficiency & #1 in the country allowing 55 PPG) and they like to take fast paced teams out of their comfort zone by slowing the pace. That’s not a good match up for Kansas who loves to get up and down the court but will be locked into a half court game here with the Horns (347th in tempo). The team most comparable to the Longhorns in the Big 12 would be Texas Tech. The Red Raiders also play great defense yet like a slow tempo game. Tech gave Kansas all kinds of problems in their 2 meetings beating the Jayhawks by 8 at home and losing on the road in double OT. Texas has won 4 of their last 5 with their only loss during that run coming @ Texas Tech. They just walloped a good Iowa State team by 22 points here on Saturday. They are 14-1 at home with a point margin of +21 per game. They catch Kansas off a huge home win over Baylor on Saturday and this will be the first time this season the Jayhawks are facing one of the top 4 teams in the Big 12 on the road. Two of KU’s conference road games were down to the wire where they came from a 2nd half deficit to top KSU and Oklahoma each by just 3 points – both teams ranked far lower than Texas. The Horns match up very well here with KU as they have length and defend the interior very well which is where the Jayhawks like to operate. Texas gets the win at home. |
|||||||
02-07-22 | Raptors v. Hornets OVER 224 | Top | 116-101 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 224 Toronto Raptors @ Charlotte Hornets, 7:10 PM ET - We have a great play for you on Monday with the Over in this contest. This line is lower than it should be based on Charlotte's recent offensive struggles and lower scoring outputs. The Hornets have put up 90, 107, 101 and 86 points in their last four games. BUT those numbers come against Miami, Cleveland, Boston and the Clippers who ALL rank top 8 in the league in defensive efficiency. Toronto ranks 17th in DEFF, allow 46% shooting by opponents (18th) and 35.7% 3-point shooting by foes (21st). Charlotte is going to find their shooting groove here with the 2nd highest scoring offense in the NBA at nearly 114PPG and the 7th best 3-point shooting offense. Toronto is going to score here too against a Hornets defense that is 28th in points allowed per game (114.2PPG), 20th in FG% defense and 23rd in 3-point percentage D. Over the course of their last five games the Raptors have the 10th most efficient offense in the league at 1.162-points per possession. These two teams met in late January and produced 238 total points. More of the same tonight! |
|||||||
02-06-22 | Hawks v. Mavs OVER 221 | Top | 94-103 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 221 Atlanta Hawks @ Dallas Mavericks, 6:10 PM ET - This shapes up to be a high scoring affair with plenty of points from both teams. The Mavs were on a strong UNDER streak in mid-January with 8 straight games staying below the Total but recently they’ve gone OVER in 5 of six. Dallas has the 4th best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA over the last five game span at 1.222-points per possession. On the season they have a top 5 defensive efficiency rating but in their last five games they’ve regressed on that end of the court to 11th allowing 1.123PPP. The Mavs recently put up 132 points against the Pacers and Blazers and they shouldn’t have a problem scoring here against a Hawks defense that is one of the worst in the league. Atlanta is 27th in DEFF, 24th in points allowed per game, 23rd and 25th in overall FG% defense and 3-point% defense. What Atlanta does to well is score points. The Hawks are 7th in scoring, 6th in shooting and 1st in 3-point percentage offensively. With current injuries to both teams we are projecting small ball lineups for both teams which should lead to a faster tempo and an up-and-down game. Four of the last six meetings have resulting in 221 or more points. The bet here is OVER. |
|||||||
02-06-22 | Nevada v. San Diego State -12.5 | Top | 63-65 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
#856 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -12 over Nevada, Sunday at 4 PM ET - SDSU has been money coming off a loss this season. They’ve also been money at home and we get both here. The Aztecs lost 53-52 @ Colorado State on Friday after making a furious comeback late. They were down 12 with just over 2 minutes remaining and took the lead with 14 seconds remaining at CSU, a very tough place to play. Now they are back home where they are 10-1 on the season with a point differential of +14 per game. In conference play their 3 home wins have come by margins of 30, 25, and 25 points and two of those were bounce back games off a loss. Nevada will be on the road for their 3rd game in just 6 days. The Wolfpack lost Tuesday @ UNLV by 11, Friday @ Fresno by 17 and they are now back at it on the road less than 48 hours later. They are just 1-6 SU on the road this year with their only win coming @ Air Force, the 2nd lowest rated team in the Mountain West. Nevada has been without 2 of their top players, Sherfield and Washington, the last few games due to injury and there is a good chance they won’t be back here. Their offense has been brutal during their current 4 game losing streak scoring 66, 49, 58, and 56 points in those games. We don’t anticipate it getting any better here facing a San Diego State defense that ranks 2nd nationally in efficiency and 4th in eFG% allowed. The Aztecs have not allowed a team to score more than 55 points in any of their conference home games. Offensively they’ve scored at least 72 points in 4 of their last 5 home games and most likely won’t need to get to that number to cover this game. We like San Diego State to roll up a big win. |
|||||||
02-05-22 | Heat v. Hornets UNDER 227.5 | Top | 104-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 227.5 Miami Heat vs Charlotte Hornets, 7:10 PM ET - Miami is the alpha team in this matchup, and they’ll dictate tempo in Charlotte. The Heat are the 2nd slowest paced team in the NBA, behind only the Knicks when it comes to possessions per game. Charlotte is the 2nd fastest for the season but in their last five games they’ve slowed, and their offensive efficiency has dipped. Miami is 5th in points allowed per game, giving up just 104.8PPG behind the 8th best field goal percentage defense. The Heat are 8th in defensive efficiency allowing1.087-points per possession. At first glance, the Heat have played OVER in 7 of their last eight games but 7 of those eight games finished with less than 226 points (in regulation). Miami just played the Spurs, a very similar team to the Hornets and that game finished with 207 total points. Charlotte has been a high scoring team all season long, but they haven’t topped 220 total points in three straight games and 7 of their last ten. These teams have met once this season and that game finished with 213 total points. We like UNDER here. |
|||||||
02-05-22 | Oregon State v. Colorado -9 | Top | 63-86 | Win | 100 | 18 h 4 m | Show |
#728 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado -9 over Oregon State, Saturday at 6 PM ET - CU is coming off a home loss and we really like this spot for the Buffs. They lost here vs a red hot Oregon team (won 8 of last 9) on Thursday night and this becomes a must win with 3 of their next 4 games on the road. The Buffs are 5-7 in league play but they’ve played the toughest strength of schedule in Pac 12 play to date. They do have 4 homes losses this year but they are vs the 3 of the 4 highest rated teams in the conference (UCLA, USC, Oregon) along with Tennessee who is one of the best teams in the country. Oregon State is rated as the worst team in the Pac 12. They are 3-16 overall on the season and just 1-8 in conference play. Their wins this year have come vs Portland State (274th ranked team), Nicholls State (217th ranked team), and Utah (2-11 record in the Pac 12 ahead of only Oregon St). On the road this team is 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS. They lost @ Utah who is 2-11 in the conference by 25 points on Thursday night. The Beavers are getting outscored by an average of 14 PPG on the road and shooting only 39%. On top of all that, this is the toughest back to back in the conference and has been known as such for a long time. Playing in altitude @ Utah followed up by playing in altitude again @ Colorado 2 days later is brutal. OSU has the worst defensive efficiency in Pac 12 play this season and they are also last in eFG% defense. And they foul a lot which is good for Colorado who shoots 74% from the FT line as a team. 7 of OSU’s 8 conference losses have come by double digits and this has the makings of a blow out. Take the Buffs at home. |
|||||||
02-04-22 | San Diego State v. Colorado State -3 | Top | 57-58 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
#892 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -3 over San Diego State, Friday at 9 PM ET - CSU was 16-1 entering last weekend and they proceeded to lose 2 straight vs UNLV and in OT @ Wyoming. We like them to bounce back at home in Moby Arena where they have won 27 of their last 30 games! It can be tough for teams to come into high altitude and play well which is one of the many reasons that CSU has such a strong home court. San Diego State attempted was in a similar situation last week traveling to play Utah State in altitude and they lost by 18. SDSU then went home and blasted New Mexico so they are coming off a win. The Rams are fantastic offensive team ranking 18th in offensive efficiency nationally, 7th in eFG%, 18th in 3-point %, and 12th in 2-point %. They also make 79% of their free throws. San Diego State really struggles on offense at times. Especially on the road where they are averaging just 59 PPG on 37% shooting. They have played just 4 true road games and they are 1-3 SU in those games. This is a big time revenger for CSU after losing by 30 @ San Diego State one month ago. The normally sharp shooting Rams hit just 28% of their shots in that game and only 15% of their 3’s. SDSU is very good defensively but we look for a much better offensive performance from Colorado State who averages 83 PPG at home while shooting 52% overall and 40% from deep. The Aztecs will have trouble keeping up offensively here and we side with Colorado State to win and cover this short number at home. |
|||||||
02-04-22 | Hawks v. Raptors UNDER 219 | Top | 114-125 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 219 Atlanta Hawks @ Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - We are going contrarian here, grabbing the extra value with UNDER in this contest. This line opened 215.5 and has since moved to the current number of 219 giving us extra value. Not only that, these same two teams just met the other night in Atlanta and the O/U was 212.5. Both teams are coming off big emotional wins last night as the Raptors beat the Bulls in OT while the Hawks defeated the Suns at home. When playing the second night of a back-to-back these two teams average right around 215 total points per game and combined, they are 10-8 to the Under. These two teams rank 19th and 28th in pace of play so they prefer the slower tempo to begin with but given the circumstances this game should be slower yet. The Canadian government is not allowing fans at games, yet which makes this a dead environment and lacking energy for either team to feed off. Toronto’s home games this season have averaged 215 total points per game which is the 3rd lowest number in the NBA. Bet UNDER. |
|||||||
02-03-22 | Washington v. California -2 | Top | 84-63 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
#854 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* California -2 over Washington, Thursday at 11 PM ET - Cal has lost 8 straight games and now they are a favorite in this one. We actually have the Bears power rated as a 4.5 points favorite here so we like the value with the team coming off a big stretch of losses. They have a misleading 2-9 record in Pac 12 play as over half of those losses (5) have come vs the top 3 teams in the conference (UCLA, Arizona, and USC). They have lost 3 straight home games, however those were again vs the top teams in the Pac 12 (UCLA, Arizona, and USC). Prior to that the Bears had won 9 straight home games. Washington is 6-3 in conference play but they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in league play having played Arizona just once and they have not faced USC or UCLA. The Huskies do have 2 conference road wins but those came vs Oregon State and Utah, the 2 lowest rated teams in the league. Their other 3 conference road games resulted in losses of 28, 16, and 14 points. UW just struggled big time with Utah at home over the weekend winning in double OT. At this number the oddsmakers are pretty much asking Washington to win on the road and they simply don’t shoot the ball well enough to be trusted here. They rank 312th or lower nationally in eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. This has been a home team series with the host winning 9 of the last 10 outright and covering 7 in a row. Cal views this match up as a great chance to end their losing streak and they’ll bring a great effort at home tonight. Lay the small number. |
|||||||
02-03-22 | Heat v. Spurs OVER 221 | Top | 112-95 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 220.5 Miami Heat vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - These two teams go about scoring their points in different manners. The Spurs score by getting out in transition and forcing tempo with the 5th fastest paced offense in the NBA. San Antonio is 9th in scoring this season at 111.4PPG, 13.4 of those points come via the fast break which is 8th highest in the NBA. They are also the 7th most efficient team in the NBA when it comes to scoring on the break. Miami on the other hand prefers to play slow, ranking next to last in the league when it comes to pace of play. But the Heat are the 5th most efficient offense in the league at 1.127-points per possession. The Heat are the 2nd best 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 37.5% and the Spurs have a tough time defending the 3-pointer with the 19th ranked 3PT% defense. San Antonio ranks 9th in overall FG% and 13th in 3PT% and the Heat rank 18th in 3PT% defense. Miami is coming off 3 straight lackluster offensive performances and now get a chance to put up big offensive numbers against a Spurs defense that is 20th in efficiency that has given up 115 or more points in 7 of their last nine games. Get your play in on the OVER. |
|||||||
02-02-22 | Blazers v. Lakers -3.5 | Top | 94-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -3.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10:40 PM ET - Man, I hate betting on the Lakers! LA is obviously a very popular and public team which means they more than likely are over-priced most nights. Since LeBron joined the Lakers, they are a money-burning 136-162-6 ATS (45.6%) which is the second worst spread record in the NBA since 2018. Portland has been horrible on the road this season though with a 7-17 SU record and the 4th worst average loss margin of -8.9PPG. They rank 25th in offensive efficiency on the road and last in road defensive efficiency. The Lakers have played a large portion of the season without Anthony Davis, so their home statistics are somewhat misleading. In games he’s played at home they are 9-7 SU. Yes, the Lakers will be without James here, but the Blazers continue to play and lose without their best player Lilliard. LA has covered 4 straight when coming off a spread loss and recently beat the Blazers by 33 at home. We like Los Angeles to get a solid home win and cover on Wednesday. |
|||||||
02-02-22 | Purdue v. Minnesota +10.5 | Top | 88-73 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
#672 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Minnesota +10.5 over Purdue, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This line is off. Our power ratings have Purdue -8.5. For comparison’s sake, Minnesota was just +11 @ Wisconsin on Sunday and now they are getting basically the same number at home vs Purdue. The Boilers are in a tough spot coming off an important 81-78 home win vs Ohio State on Sunday. They hit a tough 3-point shot at the buzzer to get that win. Purdue plays another important game at home on Saturday vs Michigan. In the meantime they are @ Minnesota who sits at 2-7 in Big 10 play and this sets up as a perfect spot for a Boilermaker letdown. They have played just 5 true road games on the year and they have a 3-2 record in those games with none of their wins coming by more than 10 points (losses @ Rutgers and @ Indiana). They average 84 PPG overall this season but that drops by 7 points when they have played on the road. Purdue’s road point margin is just +4 per game. The Gophers are finally back to full strength after their Covid slow down. They were missing key players on and off over the last few weeks but had everyone back for the first time in awhile in their game @ Wisconsin on Saturday, including big man Eric Curry who hadn’t played since January 12th. They gave the Badgers all they could handle in a 66-60 loss – game was tied 60-60 with 2:20 remaining. Minnesota is a bit undervalued in our opinion and they’ve been a very competitive team despite their 7 losses. Only 1 of those losses came by more than 13 points. Their average point margin in Big 10 play is -6.5 points per game and we think they keep this one close. |
|||||||
02-02-22 | St. Louis v. George Mason +2 | Top | 92-90 | Push | 0 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
#680 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* George Mason +2 over St Louis, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We were on George Mason one week ago today as a home dog vs St Bonnies and picked up a nice win with the Colonials coming out on top 75-66. We’re getting the underrated GM team at home as a dog again and we’re jumping on them vs St Louis. They are playing really good basketball right now winning 7 of their last 9 games with their lone losses coming by 1 point @ George Washington, a game Mason played without their leading scorer Oduro, and @ Kansas by just 9 points. GM is a very good shooting team ranking 14th nationally in eFG% and 15th in 2-point FG%. They are tough to guard with 4 players averaging double digit points including 3 key transfers from Colorado, Tennessee, and Morehead State. St Louis is 5-2 in A10 play but they’ve faced the easiest schedule in the conference. The Billikens have played ONE team on the road that ranks in the top 7 in the conference and that was a loss @ Dayton. SLU has historically struggled on the road with a 2-3 record this season and they are 13-28 in conference road games under head coach Travis Ford. They are coming off a rare road win on Saturday vs Duquesne, one of the two worst teams in the conference, and they are now on the road for the 2nd straight game. George Mason is 8-1 at home this season with a +13 PPG margin and they are also 6-1 ATS as a dog this season. We like the Colonials to get it done again at home vs SLU. |
|||||||
02-01-22 | Nuggets v. Wolves -4 | Top | 115-130 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -5 over Denver Nuggets, 8:10 PM ET - We like the home team to prevail by double-digits in this matchup and will back the Wolves here. Let’s get this out of the way first. The Nuggets are playing lights-out right now with 5 straight wins and 8 of their last ten. We do like they are coming off a blowout win of the World Champion Milwaukee Bucks and may letdown here, especially with a potential look-ahead with the Jazz. The Nuggets have won 4 straight on the road but other than the Bucks they won at New Orleans, at Brooklyn who played without the Big 3 and at Detroit. In contrast, let’s look at the Wolves' most recent home games. They beat the Jazz by 20, the Nets by 11 with Irving and Harden and the Warriors by 20. Minnesota is 6-1 SU their last seven at home with all six wins coming by 6 or more points. The Nuggets are a respectable 15-12 SU on the road this season but only 6 of those wins came against teams with a winning record. That ties into the Nuggets 8-18 ATS record in their last twenty-six road games versus a team with a winning home record. We like the Wolves by 10+ |
|||||||
02-01-22 | Panthers v. Rangers OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 102 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
#31/32 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 6.5 Goals - Florida Panthers at New York Rangers, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET – The set-up here is ideal to expect plenty of goals. The Rangers are off a 3-2 win over the Kraken but head coach Gerard Gallant was not happy with his club at all and he let them have it despite the victory. New York was heavily outshot in that game and Gallant is imploring his team to do a much better job of sustained pressure in the offensive end and generating scoring chances. The trouble for the Rangers is that they are facing a Panthers team that is one of the best in the league in that realm. Florida is constantly creating excellent scoring chances game after game and did it again last night at Columbus. Also, because this is a back to back it will likely be Spencer Knight between the pipes for the Panthers in this one. Though Knight has played better in his last two appearances this followed a stretch of 20 goals allowed over 4 starts and he also allowed 4 goals when he faced the Rangers earlier this season. If Bobrovsky starts again it will be the 2nd night of a B2B and he allowed 4 goals in last night's game at Columbus. The Rangers have been getting solid goaltending from Igor Shesterkin and he is likely to get the start here. Trouble is that he will face another barrage of shots and this Panthers team much more highly skilled than the Seattle team the Rangers just barely got by on Sunday. If Georgiev gets the call for Rangers in the crease he has struggled mightily in recent appearances. Though New York off B2B 3-2 games, 4 of 5 Rangers games before that totaled 8 or more goals and actually averaged 9 goals per game! 13 of the Panthers last 17 games have totaled at least 7 goals and Florida has scored a ridiculous average of 5 goals per game during this stretch! As you can see per all of the above, plenty of reasons to expect solid goal-scoring from both clubs in this one! Take the OVER here |
|||||||
02-01-22 | South Carolina v. Mississippi State -7.5 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
#622 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State -8 over South Carolina, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Bad spot and bad match up for South Carolina. They are catching MSU coming off 2 road losses vs 2 of the top teams in the nation. The Bulldogs lost @ Kentucky last Tuesday and took the Cats to OT on the road. Then they traveled to Texas Tech and they were out of gas both physically and emotionally after their Kentucky loss. Noticed it very early in the game and Tech rolled up an easy win. Now back at home where MSU is 4-0 in SEC play (11-1 overall) winning by an average of 12.5 points per game in league play. They have a +16 points per game margin in all 12 home games with 9 of their 11 wins coming by double digits. South Carolina is on the road for the 2nd time in 4 days after upsetting Texas A&M on Saturday. In SEC play the Gamecocks have a points per possession margin of -0.4 and MSU is +0.5 in that category. SC ranks 13th in the SEC (league games) in offensive efficiency, 13th in eFG%, and 13th in TO margin where they cough it up a whopping 23% of the time. They are also a poor defensive rebounding team (308th nationally) and MSU is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country. Those 2 things alone (TO’s and rebounding) should lead to a bunch of extra possessions for the home team. Since South Carolina is a poor shooting team, they rely on their defense to create TO’s which turn into easy baskets. That’ll be tough here vs the Bulldogs who are #1 in the conference in TO rate giving it away just 16% of the time. The Gamecocks are aggressive defensively thus they foul A LOT. They foul more than any other team in the conference and their opponents % of points from the FT line is nearly 25% which is the 7th most in the entire nation. MSU is a solid FT shooting team at 72% while South Carolina has hit just 59% of their FT’s in conference play. Mississippi State by double digits. |
|||||||
01-31-22 | TCU v. Oklahoma UNDER 128 | Top | 72-63 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
#897/898 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 128 Points – Oklahoma vs TCU, Monday at 9 PM ET - These two met a few weeks ago and totaled just 117 points and that was including OVERTIME! At the end of regulation the score was 50-50. Both teams play a slow tempo and their defenses are superior to their offenses. They both rank inside the top 30 nationally in defensive efficiency and TCU is the #1 defense in the conference in Big 12 games. Both turn the ball over A LOT which wastes offensive possessions. In their first meeting OU had 20 turnovers and TCU had 19 which helped contribute to the low scoring game. Neither takes many 3-point shots (7th and 9th in the conference in % of points scored from deep) and neither is all that great at hitting them when they do take them (8th & 9th in 3 point % in league play, both under 30%). TCU doesn’t get to the FT line very often and when they do they are one of the worst at converting at the stripe (65% overall and just 58% in conference play). On the other end of the court, we don’t expect Oklahoma to get many looks from the FT line as TCU is very good at not fouling with just 13% of opponents points coming from the stripe (best in the Big 12). Both teams are coming off higher scoring games vs fast paced, high scoring teams, which sets this one up nicely (TCU vs LSU and Oklahoma vs Auburn). This will be a grinder and we like the UNDER. |
|||||||
01-31-22 | Blazers -3.5 v. Thunder | Top | 81-98 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -3.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - This is one of those “plug your nose” bets as we are backing a losing team as a road favorite. We will though for several reasons including going against a Thunder team that is 14-34 SU on the season and a team without their best player. The Thunder have the 4th worst overall point differential in the NBA at minus -7.2PPG and lose at home by an average of -4.3PPG. OKC is better than the Blazers statistically on the defensive end of the court but are much worst offensively. The Blazers are 16th in offensive efficiency ratings and are the 7th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. The Thunder rank 30th in points, FG% shooting and 3-point% shooting with the worst offensive efficiency numbers at 1.025-points per possession. Scoring will be even tougher tonight without their best players Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who is averaging 24.4 points, 7.1 assists and 5.5 rebounds in wins this season. The Thunder haven’t won this season without SGA in the lineup and stand 0-5 SU on the year. In those five losses the Thunder have been beaten by 12, 6, 73, 18 and 9 points. Going back further we find the Thunder are a miserable 6-36 SU without Alexander over the past two full seasons. OKC has lost 12 of their last thirteen. Portland is on a 5-0 spread run their last five games when coming off a loss of 10 or more points. The bet here is backing Portland. |
|||||||
01-30-22 | Mavs v. Magic UNDER 211.5 | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 211.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - We are getting some extra value here after the Mavs put up over 130 points offensively in two straight games. Dallas shot extremely well in big wins over the Pacers and Blazers by hitting over 53% in both games which is drastically higher than their season average of 45.2% (19th). It also helps that the Pacers and Blazers are two of the worst defensive efficiency teams in the NBA. Orlando isn’t great by any means, but they do rank 18th in opponents FG% and 21st in defensive efficiency ratings. The Magic will have a tough time scoring themselves with the 28th ranked scoring offense facing a Mavs defense that allows just 103.PPG which is 3rd best in the NBA. Dallas is coming off a game last night and the dominant team in this setting so they’ll dictate the pace of play which will be slow. The Mavs rank 29th in the league in tempo or possessions per game. When playing the second night of a back-to-back the Mavs are 8-1 to the Under and those games have averaged 205.2PPG. These two teams met a few weeks back and combined for 200 total points. More of the same today. Bet under! |
|||||||
01-30-22 | Blazers v. Bulls -5 | Top | 116-130 | Win | 100 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
ASA top play on 9* Chicago Bulls -5 over Portland Trailblazers, 3:40 PM ET - We like the situation to play an elite team in the NBA off a disappointing loss, versus a bad team off a win. The Bulls are coming off a loss in San Antonio and have been solid at home when coming off a beat with a 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS record. Portland defeated the Rockets in their most recent game and have struggled in this situation with a 3-8 SU/ATS record when coming off a win and on the road. Portland is 7-15 SU away this year with the 4th worst point differential in the league at minus -8.4PPG. The Blazers have the 29th ranked road defensive efficiency and 22nd offensive efficiency numbers. Chicago is 17-6 SU at home with the 8th best average MOV at +4.7PPG. The Bulls were recently a -4-point home favorite over the Raptors who are playing much better than the Blazers and now this line is only a 1.5-points higher? |
|||||||
01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 42 m | Show |
#322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -7 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 3 PM ET - Cincy’s path to this point has been less than impressive. They topped the Raiders by a TD at home in the Wild Card round despite getting outgained in the game on a YPG and YPP basis. Last week they went to Tennessee and won on a last second FG but that game was more or less gifted to them. The Bengals were dominated in the stats getting outgained by 1.4 YPP in the game but the Titans had 3 interceptions which killed any chance they had. The offense has been fairly pedestrian in those 2 games averaging 5.0 YPP and 5.4 YPP. They’ve scored just 1 TD in their last 18 possessions and their offensive line is a sieve allowing 11 sacks in the first 2 playoff games. The Bengals are +4 TO’s in those 2 games which is why the are still standing. KC, on the other hand, is rolling offensively averaging 7.4 YPP vs Pittsburgh and 7.6 YPP last week vs the #1 defense in the NFL. They scored 42 points in each of those 2 games and we see Cincinnati will have a tough time keeping up. Some may fear a possible letdown for KC after last week’s crazy win over Buffalo which many people felt should have been the AFC Championship game but we don’t think that happens. The Chiefs have won 11 of their last 12 games and their one loss was @ Cincy late in the year (lost 34-31) and blew a 28-17 first half lead. They will be focused in this one. We love the experience advantage with Mahomes and Reid playing at home in their 4th straight AFC Championship game vs a team, coach and QB who has never been this far in the playoffs. Teams on the road in the Championship round who won a road game the previous week are just 13-28 SU & 17-24 ATS as this is a very tough situation to be in. Mahomes is a perfect 8-0 SU in playoff games when Brady isn’t the opposing QB and will be very comfortable in this spot. KC wins and covers at home and moves on to another Super Bowl. |
|||||||
01-30-22 | Indiana State v. Bradley -7.5 | Top | 52-67 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
#844 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Bradley -7.5 over Indiana State, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Bradley is one of the hottest teams in the MVC winning 5 of their last 6. Their only loss during that stretch was @ Illinois State, a game Bradley led by 20 points late in the first half. Prior to this 6 game stretch, the Braves faced the 2 best teams in the conference, Loyola & Missouri State, and played very well. They lost those games by 2 points vs Mizzou State and in OT @ Loyola, a game they led by 16 in the 2nd half. So this team has been playing outstanding basketball over their last 7 games. Prior to that, they took on this Indiana State team on the road and lost by 5. The Braves were favored by -3.5 on the road in that one and now we’re getting them at -7 (as of this writing) so value on Bradley. In that 5 points loss the more physical Braves dominated the glass (+13) including 14 offensive rebounds. That led to 13 more FG attempts but they simply shot poorly in the loss. We expect them to handle ISU on the glass again here and if they shoot close to the 47% they average at home this should be an easy win. Indiana State is one of the youngest teams in the nation (3 freshmen starting) so it’s understandable why they are just 1-6 SU on the road this season. The Sycamores are also coming off a huge upset at home beating Missouri State earlier this week. They caught Mizzou St off a huge win of their own as they beat Loyola last weekend so it was definitely a letdown spot for the Bears. We like the red hot Braves in this revenge spot. |
|||||||
01-29-22 | Wizards +5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 95-115 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +5.5 over Memphis Grizzlies, 8:10 PM ET - The Grizzlies are coming off a big game last night versus the Jazz and are ripe for a letdown. Memphis is playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, 3rd in four nights and 7th in thirteen days. Washington meanwhile has been off since the 25th and will come into this game well rested. The Wizards are getting healthy with Dinwiddie, Beal, Bryant and Hachimura all back in the lineup. Washington is coming off an embarrassing home loss to the Clippers (lost by 1-point after leading by 35-points) the last time out and will be highly motivated here. Memphis is 5-4 SU when playing without rest, but their average margin of victory is minus -1.7PPG. The Wiz are a respectable 10-13 SU away from home on the season and not only do we like them to cover here, but we also won’t be surprised if they win outright. |
|||||||
01-29-22 | Middle Tennessee v. Western Kentucky -5 | Top | 93-85 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Kentucky -5 over Middle Tennessee State, Saturday at 3 PM ET - This is a huge home game for WKY. They are 2-5 on conference play and have lost 4 straight games but they are much better than their record. The Hilltoppers have played one of the toughest schedules in CUSA play so far having already faced the 3 highest rated teams in the league (UAB, North Texas, and La Tech). They were very competitive in all 3 of those losses getting topped by 1, 3, and 5 points. The most recent coming at home on Wednesday vs UAB the best team in the conference. WKY lost that game 68-65 and made only 4 out of 17 three pointers (24%) but still had the game tied with under 10 seconds to go when UAB made a 3 at the buzzer. MTSU, on the other hand, has played the easiest schedule in CUSA play and they have a 4-2 record. Their last 3 games were vs FIU, Southern Miss, and Marshall, 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the league. They struggled big time @ Marshall (0-7 CUSA record) on Thursday night squeaking by with a 2 point win. The Blue Raiders trailed for most of the game but made 2 FT’s in the final seconds to win. MTSU was 0-6 SU on the road entering that game vs Marshall and they are now playing their 2nd road game in 3 days. They are a very poor 3-point shooting game (330th nationally) and they rely on getting to the FT line more than most teams. Problem here is Western Kentucky fouls as little as anyone in the nation allowing just 10.8% of opponents points to come from the stripe (lowest percentage in the country). The Hilltoppers are the much better offensive team ranking 3rd in CUSA (conference games) in eFG%, 3rd in 3 point %, and 4th in 2 point %. The are also the much bigger team, the more experience team, and they create bunches of TO’s (best in CUSA) which will make it difficult for an MTSU team that turns the ball over a lot. WKY is the better team despite their CUSA record and they are backed into a corner in a must win spot. We’ll lay it. |
|||||||
01-28-22 | Bulls +1.5 v. Spurs | Top | 122-131 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +1.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - We successfully played against the Spurs the other night with part of our analysis touching on scheduling and fatigue being a factor for San Antonio. It showed late in the game and the Grizzlies took advantage with a cover. This isn’t a back to back for the Spurs but this will be their 9th game in sixteen days. The Bulls are 30-17 on the season and sit second in the East behind the Heat. Chicago went through a funk recently with a 4-6 SU record their last ten games but that was largely due to injuries to Zach Lavine and DeMar DeRozen. Both are back here and played well in their most recent game, a win over Toronto. Chicago ranks in the top half of the NBA in most key statistical categories when playing on the road. The Spurs on the other hand rank 25th in defensive efficiency at home which will show in this game with the weapons the Bulls have offensively. Chicago is the 2nd best overall shooting team in the NBA, 1st in 3-point percentage and they should take advantage of a Spurs defense hemorrhaging points in the paint. The Bulls get this road win. |
|||||||
01-28-22 | Rhode Island +6.5 v. Dayton | Top | 51-53 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
#877 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rhode Island +6.5 over Dayton, Friday at 7 PM ET - We were on URI earlier this week vs Richmond and came up short as they lost 70-63. It was a game the Rams led by 15 in the 2nd half but were outscored 15-1 in the final 5:45 as URI did not make a single shot during that stretch. It was a game they should have won and they blew it. Dayton also played on Tuesday and squeaked by Fordham the 4th lowest rated team in the A10. Final score was 68-61 and Fordham played without their 2nd and 3rd leading scorer in that game . Not overly impressive for Dayton. The Flyers are expected to have some ups and downs as they are the YOUNGEST team in college basketball. They start 4 freshmen and 1 sophomore and their first 3 players off the bench are also freshmen. As you would expect with a very young team, Dayton turns the ball over A LOT ranking 324th nationally in that category. URI is very good at creating turnovers defensively – 4th best in the conference – so this isn’t a great match up for Dayton when it comes to that. The Flyers also score most of their points from inside the arc (55% which is 31st most in the country) and that is the Rams strength on defense as they limit opponents to just 43% shooting from 2 point range – 9th best in the nation. Rhode Island has been a solid road team going 3-3 so far with losses @ Providence (one of the top teams in the Big East), @ Davidson by 4 (top rated team in the A10) and @ Florida Gulf Coast by 1. They are one of the better teams in the nation defensively (13th nationally in eFG% defense & allowing just 63 PPG). They are set up very well to cover as a dog and we think they have a great shot to win this one. Take the points. |
|||||||
01-27-22 | Flames v. Blues -130 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis Blues -140 over Calgary Flames, Thursday at 8:05 PM ET - We had our eyes on this spot ever since these teams met on Monday at Calgary. That game ended up an embarrassing 7-1 loss for the Blues. Now the rematch is in St Louis and everything is set up perfectly for payback for the home team here. The Blues have been off since Monday's loss so they are well-rested here. The Flames were at Columbus last night so they are in a back to back spot and they used their #1 goalie last night Markstrom. That means it is likely back-up Daniel Vladar will be between the pipes for the Flames tonight. He has allowed 17 goals in his last 4 appearances! As for the Blues, they are expected to have Ville Husso between the pipes for this one as he was the first one to leave the ice at today's game-day skate. Husso has been superb of late with a 5-0 record in January and a sparkling 1.13 GAA in his 6 appearances this month! Prior to losing at Calgary, St Louis had won 13 of 17 games! The Flames, prior to last night's win over a struggling Blue Jackets team, had lost 4 straight road games and 6 of their last 8 away from home. Home ice edge, goalie edge, revenge factor, rest edge...it all combines for a super spot to back the hosts at a reasonable money line price here. Lay the money line price with the home fave here for a Top Game. |
|||||||
01-27-22 | Loyola-Chicago v. Southern Illinois +6.5 | Top | 44-39 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Southern Illinois +6.5 over Loyola Chicago, Thursday at 8 PM ET - These two just met on Saturday @ Loyola and the Ramblers won 59-47. The game was much closer than that with Loyola leading by just 3 points with under 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. The Ramblers went on an 11-2 run in the final 3 minutes to win by 12. Southern Illinois shot terribly (33%) and made 5 fewer FT’s and still were in the game until the final few minutes on the road. SIU is better than their 10-10 record (3-5 in conference play). They have played the 3rd toughest schedule in league play and 7 of their 10 losses have come by 8 points or less. Loyola has played the easiest schedule in league play and their 2 road wins in the MVC have come @ Evansville (last place in the conference) and Indiana State (2nd to last place in the conference). The Ramblers other 5 league games have all come at home. SIU is 3-1-1 ATS this year as a dog in MVC games and 6-3 ATS overall getting points. Their overall numbers at home (PPG, FG%, and 3 point %) are all much better than on the road as to be expected. We can expect Loyola to be in a letdown spot here after just beating Southern Illinois and with a huge game vs Drake, the team that sits in 2nd place behind them, on deck. Take the points. |
|||||||
01-27-22 | Lakers v. 76ers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 87-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 218.5 LA Lakers @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 PM ET - When I started writing the analysis on this game the number was 220 but has since dropped to the current total but we still have value with the Under. The Lakers got Anthony Davis back who instantly give the Lakers a defensive presence in the paint and a rim protector they’ve been lacking. The Lakers have also focused on the defensive end of the court in recent games with the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating in their last five games. That’s a drastic improvement compared to their season rank of 14th. L.A. has also made a point of playing slower in recent games. On the season the Lakers average 100.4 possessions per game which ranks 3rd most, but in their last five games that number dips to 14th at 98.3 possession per game. Philly is also playing much slower with the 4th slowest tempo in the NBA over their last five games and on the season. The 76ers are 8th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 105.7, have the 13th best 3-point percentage defense and overall FG% defense. The Sixers are also missing one of their top offensive threats in this game with Seth Curry sidelined. The Under has cashed in 5 of the last six meetings between these two teams on this court and we see another low scoring game here. |
|||||||
01-26-22 | San Diego State v. Utah State +1.5 | Top | 57-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
#750 ASA TOP PLAY ON Utah State +1.5 over San Diego State, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET - Utah State is in must win mode after starting MWC play with a 1-5 record. USU has played an extremely tough schedule this season (41st SOS) and 6 of their 9 losses have come by 5 points or less. They have an SOS of #2 in conference games and they have lost 4 in a row all by 7 points or less and their 2 home games during that stretch came by 2 vs Wyoming (4-1 conference record) and by 3 vs Boise State (7-0 conference record). The Aggies are much better than their 10-9 record and they are the only team in the Mountain West that ranks in the top 80 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. This team was 20-9 last year and lost to Texas Tech in the first round of the NCAA tournament. They really need a win here and they are rested and getting healthy after a full week off. They catch San Diego State playing their 3rd game in 5 days. A very quick turnaround for the Aztecs after beating UNLV on Monday night. SDSU hasn’t played a road game since January 1st and their offense really struggles at times to say the least. On Saturday they scored only 37 points in a home loss to Boise. In road games they are averaging just 60 PPG while shooting 37% from the field and only 20% from beyond the arc. The Aztecs are very good defensively but you need to score some points to cover games on the road, especially as a favorite, and they simply don’t do that. These two conference rivals met 3 times last year and Utah State won 2 of those games. USU has been favored in every home game this year, including vs Boise last week who is undefeated in conference play. We like the value of the home dog here and we have Utah State winning this one. |
|||||||
01-26-22 | Mavs v. Blazers UNDER 217 | Top | 132-112 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
ASA top play on 9* UNDER 217 Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - The Mavs are coming off one of their worst defensive showings of the season when they allowed 130 points to the Warriors last night. Dallas is 14-33-1 UNDER on the season and have stayed below the Total in 8 of their last nine games and 13 of their last fifteen. On the season the Mavericks are 5th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.072-points per possession. Dallas is also one of the slowest paced teams in the league at 95.8 possessions per game. The Blazers are slightly faster than the Mavs when it comes to pace but still rank as the 13th slowest in the NBA. The Mavs rank 22nd in offensive efficiency ratings and won’t take advantage of a poor Blazers defense. Portland has struggled offensively all season ranking 17th in offensive efficiency after finishing 2nd in that category a year ago. These are two poor shooting teams with the Blazers ranking 23rd in FG% offense, Dallas checks in at 20th with both teams shooting under 45%. Dallas is coming off a game last night and they are 8-0 UNDER this season when playing without rest and those games finished with only 200 total points. Bet UNDER. |
|||||||
01-26-22 | Grizzlies -4.5 v. Spurs | Top | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 @ San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - We love the spot to fade the Spurs and back the Grizzlies in this matchup. First off, the line on this game looks “fishy” and higher than it should be. San Antonio was just a +1-point home underdog against Brooklyn and Philadelphia and are now catching 4 or more points here? Vegas clearly wants you to bet on the Spurs so in contrarian fashion we will back Memphis. The Spurs are coming off a game last night in Houston and played their best basketball of the season. But now they are unrested playing the second night of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in four nights and 8th game in only 13 nights. Fatigue will be a major factor tonight. Memphis meanwhile is coming off a loss on the 23rd in Dallas so they are rested and hungry for a W. The Grizz are 6-2 SU with 2 days rest this season while the Spurs are 4-5 SU without rest. Memphis is significantly better in terms of offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency with a 15-8 SU road record to their credit. Spurs are on an 0-5 ATS streak as a dog, Grizzlies have covered 4 straight off a spread loss. Lay it! |
|||||||
01-25-22 | Mavs v. Warriors UNDER 210 | Top | 92-130 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 210 Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - These teams are easily two of the best defensive clubs in the NBA currently with the Warriors ranking 1st in defensive efficiency allowing 1.029-points per possession, Dallas is 4th at 1.067PPP. In their most recent 5 games the Mavs are 1st in DEFF, the Warriors are 4th. Both teams also rank in the bottom half of the NBA in pace of play with the Warriors ranking 19th, Dallas 23rd. The Mavericks have stayed Under in 8 straight games and 13 of their last fourteen. Golden State has also favored the Under with a 7-4 record their last eleven games overall, with 5 of their last six at home staying below the number. When these two teams met earlier this month, they combined for 181 total points. Bet Under. |
|||||||
01-25-22 | Maryland v. Rutgers UNDER 132.5 | Top | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
#617/618 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 132.5 Points – Maryland vs Rutgers, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - These 2 met just 10 days ago and tallied 129 points with the final score Rutgers 70-59. They scored a bunch of points late as they had just 112 total points with 2:30 remaining in the game. If we can avoid a late flurry in this one we should be fine. Neither offense is great ranking 11th and 13th in the Big 10 in scoring. They rank 230th and 236th in offensive eFG%. Rutgers has shot ridiculously well from 3 point land in Big 10 play hitting 41% which would rank them 2nd in the country if they had shot that well the entire season. The fact is they shoot 34% from deep on the season (134th) and we can expect a regression to the mean. Defense is the strength of both of these teams with each ranking inside the top 75 in the country in adjusted efficiency. We really like the fact that these 2 rank 14th and 13th in Big 10 play at opponent’s percentage of points from the FT line. They simply don’t foul very much. Lastly, neither is an up tempo type team with Rutgers sits 12th in the league in tempo (conference play) and Maryland ranks 9th. Maryland showed some momentum defensively over the weekend holding a very good Illinois team to just 0.98 points per possession (Illini average 1.16 PPP on the season). Rutgers had one of their worst defensive performances allowing Minnesota to average 1.24 PPP and 54% shooting. Knights coach Pikiell was very upset with his team’s defensive effort and we can expect a very good outing on that end of the court tonight. Under is the play. |
|||||||
01-24-22 | Jazz v. Suns -9 | Top | 109-115 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -9 over Utah Jazz, 7:10 PM ET - The Jazz have struggled offensively of late with Donovan Mitchell sidelined. The Jazz managed just 92 points last night against the Warriors and put up 111 in games against Houston and Detroit who are two of the worst defenses in the NBA. Utah has the #1 ranked offensive efficiency in the NBA for the season but in the last five games they slip to 10th. It will be especially tough to score tonight against a Suns team that is 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing .995-points per possession. The red-hot Suns have won 9 of their last ten games and five straight with the average margin of victory in those five games coming by 15.4PPG. This is a really tough spot for the Jazz who are playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back, 3rd game in four days AND 6th game in nine days. These same two teams met again in Utah on Wednesday so expect the Suns to make a statement here. |
|||||||
01-24-22 | South Dakota v. Western Illinois -6 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 0 m | Show |
#768 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Illinois -6 over South Dakota, Thursday at 7 PM ET - South Dakota sits ahead of WIU in the Summit standings with a 4-3 record (WIU 3-4) but WIU is the better team by our metrics. South Dakota has played one of the easiest schedules in the nation (348th) and they have played the easiest schedule so far in the Summit League (10th). They still have 3 conference losses despite that. They may look like they are on a bit of a roll winning 4 straight but those wins have come vs the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference with all 3 rank below 267th nationally. They Coyotes have struggled on the road with a 2-5 SU record and their only wins away from home came @ North Dakota who is 4-14 on the season and 0-5 in conference play and @ St Thomas who is 8-10 overall and 2-4 in league play. They haven’t beaten a single team ranked inside the top 200 this season and they are 0-4 SU vs teams ranked higher than 200. WIU is coming off a home loss vs the top team in the conference, South Dakota State. They will be hungry for a win here as their 2 home games in conference play (both losses) have come vs the top 2 teams in the league. They are 6-0 in their other home games this season. Offensively they average 80 PPG and an even better 85 PPG at home. They should have success in this one vs a South Dakota defense that ranks 308th nationally in eFG% defense and 353rd in 3-point defense (out of 358). The Coyotes were just on the road in Minnesota on Saturday (St Thomas) and now they are in Illinois just 2 days later to play this make up game that was originally scheduled for last week. WIU has been at home since January 15th. Tough spot for the road team. Lay it. |
|||||||
01-23-22 | Hawks v. Hornets -3 | Top | 113-91 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -3 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:10 PM ET - The Hornets are quietly making some noise in the East with an overall 26-20 record, while the Hawks have disappointed at 20-25. On the season the Hawk are 9-14 SU on the road with a negative differential of minus -3.1PPG which ranks 20th. A large reason why Atlanta has struggled away from home is their defensive efficiency ratings which is 2nd to last in the NBA. Charlotte has the 9th best average point differential in the league at home at +4.4PPG. They have the 5th best home OEFF numbers which is clearly a significant advantage against the Hawks D. Charlotte has won 7 of their last eight games with impressive wins against the Bucks (twice), at Philly and at Boston. Atlanta has won three in a row but all three were at home. Charlotte is 9-3-1 ATS the last 13 meetings with Atlanta in Charlotte. |
|||||||
01-23-22 | Rams v. Bucs OVER 47.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 48 h 22 m | Show |
#315/316 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 48 Points – LA Rams vs Tampa Bay, Sunday at 3 PM ET - These 2 met earlier this year and the total was set at 55 points and the final score was Rams 34, Bucs 24 and the 2 combined for almost 900 yards of offense. This total is set a full TD lower which is too large of an over adjustment in our opinion. Our numbers have this total at 51 so value on the Over. Tampa is the 2nd highest scoring home team in the NFL averaging 33 PPG and that’s including a game where they were SHUT OUT by New Orleans. If you take out that one game vs the Saints, the Bucs scored at least 30 points in every other home game and averaged almost 38 PPG. Last week they had 31 points vs the Eagles with over 5:00 minutes to go in the THIRD QUARTER but had a huge lead, called off the dogs and didn’t score again. The Rams lit up the Cards last week for 34 points and in a similar situation to Tampa, 28 of those 34 points were scored with still over 4:00 minutes remaining in the third quarter and because they had such a big lead the Rams were able to dial it back and run clock on offense. The Rams were able to run the ball effectively last week once they got the lead (38 rush attempts) but that may change this week. Tampa is very good vs the run (3rd in the NFL) so we look for LA to air it out. The strength of both offenses is their passing attack (TB #1 in YPG passing and LA 5th) and the weakness of both defenses is vs the pass (TB 22nd in YPG passing allowed and LA 21st). Tampa played a lot of up tempo offense last week vs Philly and we expect the same here. Both teams like to push the pace with the Bucs ranking 4th in pace of play and the Rams 11th. Tampa games averaged 51 total points this year and LA averaged 49 total points and this total is set lower than both. Weather looks good in Tampa and we envision this one as a game where each offense needs to keep up on the scoreboard. The projected final based on the spread and total is Tampa 25.5, LA 22.5 and we have both offenses topping those projections. Take the OVER in this one. |
|||||||
01-23-22 | Xavier v. Marquette +2 | Top | 64-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
#838 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette +2 over Xavier, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Don’t look now but Marquette just might be the hottest team in the Big East. The Golden Eagles have now won 5 straight games including wins @ Villanova earlier this week and home wins vs Seton Hall and Providence – 3 of the top teams in the conference. They are catching Xavier in a tough spot playing their 2nd straight road game with the stomach flu running through the team. The Musketeers topped DePaul 68-67 on the road Wednesday but it was a struggle. They trailed for much of the game and actually took their first lead of the 2nd half with just 2:00 minutes remaining. DePaul played that game without their leading scorer Freeman-Liberty (21 PPG) so an unimpressive effort from Xavier. They had 2 key players under the weather for that game and now another starter (Freemantle) is battling the flu. They may or may not play but none are 100%. These 2 met back on December 18th when Marquette was in the midst of a 4 game losing streak and simply not playing well. Xavier won the game 80-71 and that margin came at the FT line where the Musketeers attempted 35 FTS’s (made 21) to just 12 attempts for the Eagles (made 8). Marquette has been scorching from deep hitting at least 43% from beyond the arc in 4 of their last 5 games and Xavier has struggled guarding the 3 their last few games allowing 43% and 38% vs Creighton and DePaul. This sets up very nicely for the Golden Eagles to win at home. |
|||||||
01-22-22 | Pacers v. Suns UNDER 220 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 220 Indiana Pacers @ Phoenix Suns, 9:10 PM ET - These same two teams met Jan 14th in Indiana and that game finished with 206 total points which finished well Under the number of 219.5. The Pacers managed just 94 points in the contest and that was with their full complement of players. Indiana just played and beat Golden State on the road with their top 6 players out of the lineup. The bench and role players stepped up for that game but don’t expect a repeat performance. A big anomaly in the game against GST was the Pacers 3-point shooting as they made 15 of 35 3’s. Indiana is 26th in the NBA in 3-point percentage shooting and won’t have another big night from beyond the arc against the Suns defense which is 3rd in points allowed, 1st in FG% D, 5th in 3pt% D and 8th in rebounding. The Pacers are 17th in scoring this year averaging 108.3PPG. Phoenix allows the 5th fewest points per game at home this season where their games have averaged 216 total points. Indiana’s road games have averaged 214 total points. Both teams are trending around average in pace of play their last five games so it won’t be an up-and-down affair. This shapes up to be an easy UNDER. |
|||||||
01-22-22 | Bengals v. Titans -3 | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -3.5 over Cincinnati, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Cincy heads out on the road after their first playoff win in over 30 years last weekend. It was a rather unimpressive 26-19 win over the LV Raiders, who actually outgained the Bengals 385 yards to 308 yards and 5.4 YPP to 5.0 YPP. Two huge turnovers cost Vegas in that game as one turned into a Cincinnati FG and another took away the potential game tying TD late in the game at the Bengals 9 yard line. One thing that stuck out like a sore thumb to us in that game was Cincinnati’s inability to stop the run. The Raiders ran for 7.4 YPC in that game. Not a good trend now facing a very good running team (Titans 5th in the NFL at 141 YPG rushing) and Tennessee expect RB Henry back in the line up. On top of that, the Bengals lost 3 key DT’s in last week’s game, one is definitely out this week and the other 2 are highly questionable. The Titans not only get Henry back on offense, they will have both their top WR’s Jones & Brown in the line up for just the 8th time this season. The first 7 game they were able to team up, Tennessee was 6-1 SU. The Titans defense played outstanding down the stretch holding 6 of their last 8 opponents to 17 points or less and they allowed only 16.8 PPG in home games this season. We also give Tennessee a big coaching edge here with Mike Vrabel who is a perfect 8-0 SU & ATS when his team has at least 8 days of rest. Cincy’s coaching staff and players are new to the playoff scene and after a win last week where they didn’t perform all that well, they now take the road vs a veteran playoff team and coaching staff. Many are questioning the legitimacy of the Titans as a #1 seed but they have a very solid resume topping both of the top 2 teams in the AFC, the Bills & Chiefs, this year. Rested home teams in the Divisional round are 100-34 SU since 1988 and that continues here. We’ll lay the points with Tennessee. |
|||||||
01-22-22 | Florida State v. Miami-FL -2.5 | Top | 61-60 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON Miami FL -2.5 over Florida State, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Huge revenge game for Miami from just 11 days ago. Miami led on the road @ FSU for a majority of the game and lost 65-64 when the Canes (with a 1 point lead) were called for a foul with 1 second left on the clock. FSU hit both FT’s and won by a point. That loss is the Canes only setback in their last 11 games. This team is playing very well. They beat Duke on the road and just walloped UNC at home by 28 points all within the last 2 weeks. FSU is also on a bit of a roll winning 5 straight but 4 of those wins came at home. For the season the Noles are just 2-4 SU in road games. Dating back to last season FSU has covered just 1 of their last 9 road games. They are averaging just 66 PPG and shooting only 41% from the field in their 6 road games this season. Miami is 9-1 at home this season averaging 84 PPG and hitting nearly 50% of their shots. We like the red hot Canes to get their quick revenge at home in this one. |
|||||||
01-21-22 | Pistons v. Jazz -13.5 | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UTAH JAZZ -13.5 over Detroit Pistons, 9:10 PM ET - Detroit is 4-19 SU away from home and they’ve been beaten by an average of -14.2PPG which is the worst numbers in the NBA. The Pistons are LAST in the league in offensive efficiency on the road averaging less than 1.000 points per possession and they 26th in DEFF allowing 1.151PPP. Detroit is 24th in points allowed per game, 29th in opponent FG% D, 28th fin 3-point percentage D and 25th in rebounding. Now they face a jazz team that is 1st in scoring, the 3rd best shooting team at 47.5%, 6th in 3-point percentage and 4th in rebounding. Offensively the Pistons aren’t any better than they are defensively. Detroit is 28th in scoring, 29th in FG%, 29th in 3-point percentage and 28th in offensive rebounding. The Jazz are top 12 defensively in all the key categories. What makes this play more attractive is the fact the Pistons are coming off a big come from behind win at Sacramento while the Jazz are off a disappointing home loss to the lowly Rockets. The Jazz recently lost in Detroit as a -10.5-point favorite and will get a 20-point win here. |
|||||||
01-21-22 | Evansville v. Illinois State -7.5 | Top | 56-94 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
#888 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois State -7 over Evansville, Friday at 7 PM ET - We look for ISU to play very well at home after playing very poorly in their worst loss of the year @ Missouri State. Prior to that blowout loss, the Redbirds, who are 9-9 on the season, had 5 losses by 6 points or less or in OT. That included tight games @ top 10 Wisconsin (lost by 4) and vs a very solid St Louis team on a neutral court (lost by 6). ISU has had a rough stretch of games over the last 30 days with 4 road games and just 1 home game. In that 1 home game they topped Bradley by 9 points. Tonight they take on an Evansville team that is 0-5 in the MVC and just 4-12 on the season. The Aces wins have come vs DePauw (non Division 1), IUPUI (ranked 358th out of 358 teams), Eastern Illinois (ranked 354th) and Tennessee Tech (ranked 273rd). They are 1-5 SU on the road this season (only win vs Eastern Illinois) and 4 of those 5 losses have come by at least 20 points. ISU is very good offensive averaging 79 PPG and they rank 17th nationally hitting almost 39% of their shots from beyond the arc. That’s a bad match up for this Evansville defense that allows opponents to make 42% of their 3’s which is the 2nd worst mark in the country. On top of that, Evansville struggles to score averaging only 59 PPG which won’t get it done here vs the higher scoring Redbirds. We’ll lay the points. |
|||||||
01-20-22 | North Dakota v. Oral Roberts -20.5 | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oral Roberts -20.5 over North Dakota, Thursday at 8 PM ET - This one will be ugly. ORU has a top notch offense that ranks 77th nationally in adjusted efficiency, 32nd in eFG% and 13th in 3 point %. The are the 8th highest scoring team in the nation averaging 83 PPG and at home they are putting up a ridiculous 91 PPG. That’s going to be a massive sized problem for a North Dakota defense that ranks DEAD LAST in the country (358th) in defensive efficiency. The Hawks allow their opponents to hit 40% of their 3-point shots and we already mentioned ORU’s prowess from beyond the arc. ORU is coming home after sweeping a 3 game road trip and their last home game was on January 1st vs Nebraska Omaha. Why do we bring that up? Because Nebraska Omaha and tonight’s opponent are very similar defensively (both stink) with Omaha actually ranking 11 spots higher in defensive efficiency. How did that game turn out? Oral Roberts won 107-62! Don’t be at all surprised of the Golden Eagles hit triple digits in this game. Does North Dakota have any chance of keeping up? Nope. The Hawks rely fairly heavily on the 3 point shot and they aren’t very good at it (288th nationally). They are facing an Oral Roberts defense that has allowed opponents to make only 29% of their 3’s which is the 38th best defensive mark in the country. They are 0-8 on the road losing by an average of 19 PPG. The 3 worst teams in the Summit are North Dakota, Nebraska Omaha, and Denver (all ranked below 300). ND played the other 2 conference cellar dwellars on the road this month and lost @ Denver by 19 and @ Nebraska Omaha by 16. Now they are playing the 2nd best team in the league on the road and it’s gonna get ugly. |
|||||||
01-20-22 | Pelicans v. Knicks UNDER 210 | Top | 102-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 209.5 New Orleans Pelicans vs New York Knicks, 7:35 PM ET - Let’s start with the pace of play for both teams. The Knicks are THE slowest paced team in the NBA at 95.1 possessions per game, the Pelicans are 21st slowest at 97.1. Most recently in their last five games both are playing slower yet. New York gives up the 6th fewest points per game in the league and New Orleans is 24th in scoring. The Knicks are 23rd in offensive efficiency averaging 1.092-points per possession, New Orleans is 25th at 1.082PPP. These are two of the worst shooting teams in the NBA at 43.8% for New York and 43.7% for the Pelicans. The Knicks are on a 7-0 UNDER run when they are favored, the Pelicans are 5-1 UNDER in their last six overall. We don’t see this game getting over 205 total points. |
|||||||
01-19-22 | Pistons v. Kings -5.5 | Top | 133-131 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* SACRAMENTO KINGS -6 over Detroit Pistons - Scheduling clearly favors the Kings here with the Pistons coming off a marquee game versus the Warriors on Tuesday night. When playing without rest the Pistons are 2-5 SU this season with a net differential of minus -17PPG. Detroit is 3-18 SU away from home and they’ve been beaten by an average of -14.8PPG which is the worst numbers in the NBA. The Pistons are LAST in the league in offensive efficiency on the road averaging less than 1.000 points per possession and they 26th in DEFF allowing 1.147PPP. Sacramento hasn’t been great at home this year with a negative differential of minus -2.7PPG and a 12-15 SU record but they have won 3 of their last six at home with quality wins over the Lakers and Heat included. The Kings most recent home game was a disappointing loss to the Rockets who shot incredibly well for the game at 54% overall and 40% from 3. The Kings have been off since Sunday and are 3-0 ATS +10PPG when in this scheduling situation. Detroit is playing the 2nd of a B2B, 3rd in four nights and 4th in 6 days. |
|||||||
01-19-22 | Iowa v. Rutgers +3.5 | Top | 46-48 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
#712 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers +3.5 over Iowa, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - Rutgers is on a nice little roll winning 5 of their last 6 games. They’re unbeaten at home in Big 10 play with wins over Purdue, Michigan, and Nebraska. Iowa has played 3 conference road games losing 2 of those. Their lone Big 10 road win was on Sunday @ Minnesota facing a Gopher team without 2 of their best players in the line up (Curry & Sutherlin). The Hawkeyes have been very good at home this year (10-1 record) but their numbers drop off drastically on the road. When compared to their overall season numbers, Iowa averages 15 fewer PPG, -4% shooting, and -%7 percent from deep when playing on the road. Last year Iowa had their best team they’ve had in 20 seasons and they were -3 @ Rutgers and struggled to get by with a 77-75 win. Rutgers is the much better defensive team (54th in defensive efficiency to 158th for Iowa) and they are the bigger team. Iowa will struggle inside the arc offensively in this game. The Knights are 9-1 SU at home this season and 37-6 SU at home since the start of the 2020 season. We like the host to win this one outright. |
|||||||
01-18-22 | Panthers v. Flames OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
#33/34 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 6.5 Goals - Florida Panthers at Calgary Flames, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET – In hockey, when a team is winning and scoring a lot of goals it tends to build momentum like a snowball picking up more and more snow when rolling down a hill. The Panthers are having a lot of fun right now scoring goals and playing winning hockey and that is why they have not hesitated in piling it on against teams even when up big. Florida recently had a 9-2 win when they caught Columbus on what was a listless night for the Blue Jackets. That big Panthers win is all part of a run of 8 wins in 9 games and all 9 of these games for Florida have totaled at least 7 goals! Yes 9 in a row totaling 7 or more and, in fact, the average score of these games is Florida 6 to 3. We are looking for another wild one tonight because Calgary has allowed 4 or more goals in 7 of the last 9 games. The Flames are off a low-scoring loss but this was following a 5-game stretch in which Calgary averaged 3.4 goals per game. The Flames last 7 games have averaged totaling 7 goals per game and couple that with the crazy run that the Panthers are on right now and we just can not see this game staying under 7 goals. Look for Florida games to make it 10 IN A ROW in terms of games totaling AT LEAST 7 goals! As you can see per all of the above, plenty of reasons to expect solid goal-scoring from both clubs in this one! Take the OVER here |
|||||||
01-18-22 | Tennessee -6.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
#657 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -6.5 over Vanderbilt, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We expect UT to play with an extra effort here after getting absolutely embarrassed over the weekend @ Kentucky. The Vols lost that game 107-79 and the Wildcats averaged a ridiculous 1.47 points per possession in the win. It was the first time since 2006 that the Vols allowed a team to reach 100 points. That was a enormously poor effort from the UT defense that STILL ranks 5th nationally in adjusted efficiency even after that performance allowing just 0.89 PPP. UK is ranked 4th nationally in offensive efficiency and now the Volunteers face a Vandy team that ranks 10th in the SEC in offensive efficiency. We expect the Commodores to struggle on offense vs one of the top defenses in the nation who will play with a little extra passion here. Vandy’s home court advantage has been little to none this year as 5 of their 6 losses have come at home. They are just 2-4 SU vs top 100 teams this year with all 4 losses coming by double digits. While Vanderbilt’s strength of schedule is ranked outside the top 100, Tennessee has played one of the toughest slates in the country (14th SOS). The Vols come in with 5 losses on the season and ALL 5 have come vs teams ranked inside Ken Pom’s top 17 (Villanova, Kentucky, Alabama, LSU, and Texas Tech). UT was favored by 12 @ Vandy last year (won 70-58) and now they are laying half that number despite the Vols ranking 14th this year (per Ken Pom) while they were 28th last year when this game tipped off. Vandy is off a 7 point win over UGA (the lowest rated team in the SEC) but they are running into a buzzsaw here. The Vols have won 5 in a road @ Vanderbilt and this is a must win type of game after their blowout loss. Lay it. |
|||||||
01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams UNDER 49.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
#151/152 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 49.5 Points – Arizona vs LA Rams, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The first 2 meetings had totals set at 51 & 54 points and both went Over. Now the total for this 3 match up is set lower than the first 2 despite the first 2 going Over? Hmm… In what would be a surprise to most, both of these defenses rank higher in DVOA (5th & 6th) per Football Outsiders than do their offenses. In their weighted DVOA, which doesn’t look at the entire season but more so how the teams have performed as of late, the Cards rank 18th offensively and the Rams 14th. Since WR Hopkins was lost a few weeks ago the Cardinals have averaged only 20.7 PPG over their last 4. Prior to QB Murray’s injury, the Arizona offense was averaging 31 PPG and has been far less dynamic since his return averaging just 23 PPG. The Rams defense has held each of their last 6 opponents to 24 points or less in regulation. Over the last 10 games LA is allowing just 22 PPG and that’s with their QB Stafford throwing FOUR pick 6’s! Take out those and the Rams are allowing only 19 PPG during that stretch. Both these teams know each other very well and with the 3rd meeting of the year, we’re expecting a lower scoring game. The projected final of this game is LA 27, Arizona 23 and our simulations have both teams falling just short of those numbers. Take the Under tonight. |
|||||||
01-17-22 | Wyoming v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 77-67 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
#892 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nevada -2.5 over Wyoming, Monday at 8 PM ET - We love this spot for Nevada. Their most recent home game was a 15 point loss vs Boise State last week. They Wolfpack were favored by 2.5 in that game vs a BSU team that is ranked 30 spots higher than this Wyoming team yet we’re laying the same number. Wyoming, on the other hand, is coming off an upset 2-point win at Utah State on Saturday with the Aggies playing without 2 of their best players. It was a huge win for the Cowboys who hadn’t played a game since December 25th prior to Saturday. They are a thin team with a short bench and now must play 2 nights later after not having played for 20 days. The Wolfpack also have some revenge in mind here after losing both games vs Wyoming last year. Both were on the road and just 2 days apart due to the Covid situation. Nevada was FAVORED in both of those road games last year but lost tight games by 5 & 7 points. They returned 6 of their top 8 players from last year’s 16-10 team and they will be extra motivated here. Nevada has played the tougher schedule so their record isn’t as impressive as Wyoming’s, but the Wolfpack have won 7 of their last 9 after a slow start to the season. The only 2 losses during that run were vs Boise State & Kansas. If this one is tight late and Nevada needs to hold on to a lead, we love the fact they shoot 78% from the FT line (Wyoming shoots just 69%). The Pack has a great home court advantage with a 61-7 SU record last 68 home games. We side with Nevada tonight. |
|||||||
01-17-22 | Raptors v. Heat -4 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - We like the situation here with the Heat coming off a horrible home showing and loss, while the Raptors are off a big road win over the Bucks. Miami is 13-5 SU at home with a +/- of +6.6PPG which is 4th best in the NBA. The Raptors are 9-8 SU away from home with a negative differential of -1.7PPG. The Heat have won 4 of their last five at home and are coming off a brutal loss to the 76ers. Miami shot just 38% for the game and 26% from beyond the arc which are both well below their season averages. Butler, Lowry and Robinson combined to shoot 4 of 31 from the field. The Heat have the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA over their last five games at 1.210PPP compared to a Raptors team that is 18th over that span of games. Toronto is better defensively in the last five games but only barely with a DEFF rating of 1.102PPP compared to 1.111PPP for the Heat. Given the situation we like Miami to get a solid home win here. |
|||||||
01-16-22 | Steelers v. Chiefs -12.5 | Top | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 48 h 38 m | Show |
#150 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -12.5 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - Pitts key numbers say they shouldn’t even be in this position. In fact, they say this team is a below .500 type team. The Steelers are the only team in the playoffs with a negative point differential and a negative YPP differential. When these two met a few weeks ago KC dominated and we don’t see anything changing here. The Chiefs won the game 36-10 and led 23-0 at halftime. They outgained the Steelers by nearly 1.5 YPP and by more than 4.0 yards per pass attempt. Pittsburgh rebounded after that loss to beat Cleveland (who looked like they had given up on the season) and Baltimore in OT (Ravens played back up QB). Pitt was outgained in 7 of their last 8 games and they simply don’t have the offense to keep up here. The KC defense allowed just 10 PPG over their last 6 home games and the Steelers rank 25th in offensive DVOA per Football Outsiders and aren’t particularly good at running (24th) or passing (24th). They were held to 20 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games while KC topped 30 in 4 of their last 5 games. Pitt will want to run the ball and control the clock to keep Mahomes off the field. That’s what they wanted to do the first game as well but when you get behind quickly (23-0 at half in first meeting) that plan goes out the window. We see a similar situation on Sunday night. Double Digit favorites in the Wild Card round are a perfect 5-0 ATS since 2001 and we see another ATS winner being added to that record. Lay it with the Chiefs. |
|||||||
01-16-22 | Warriors v. Wolves OVER 216 | Top | 99-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 216 Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10 PM ET - First off we’ll apologize for this shorter analysis but its football Sunday and time is limited. This game features two of the top 12 teams in scoring this season with both averaging over 109PPG. GST is 11th in offensive efficiency at 1.113-points per possession and 12th in overall pace of play on the year. Minnesota is 6th in pace and will want to play fast here at home. Most recently, in their last five games the Wolves have the 5th most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.170PPP. The Wolves are on a 5-0 Over streak against a team with a winning record, Golden State is on a 4-0 Over run against teams with a losing record. The last four meetings between these two teams have finished with more than 233 total points. Yes, we know there is not Steph Curry here, but they do have Klay Thompson back in the mix and their best defender Draymond Green is out. BET OVER! |
|||||||
01-15-22 | Oregon v. USC -6 | Top | 79-69 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* USC -6 over Oregon, Saturday at 11 PM ET - Great value here with the Trojans. As of this write up they are laying just 6 at home vs Oregon who is playing their 2nd straight road game. Because USC struggled a bit at home on Thursday with Oregon State (won by 10) and Oregon upset UCLA in OT this line is off. The Ducks opened +11 @ UCLA and we have USC rated the EXACT same (within 2 spots) of UCLA and this line is just 6. Now way the Bruins are 5 points better than the Trojans on a neutral site which is what this line suggests. A letdown is in order here for Oregon and this is a very tough spot as they are playing their 3rd road game in 6 days (Beat Oregon St by 2 on Monday and UCLA in OT on Thursday). USC is a fantastic defensive team that has held 12 of their 15 opponents to 40% or less from the field. Not a great match up for an Oregon team that shoots just 43% on the road and just 32% from deep. These teams have faced off here @ USC 3 times since the start of the 2019 season and the Trojans have won those games by 17, 14, and 14 points. We love this spot for USC and we’ll lay the points. |
|||||||
01-15-22 | 76ers v. Heat OVER 209 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 209 Philadelphia 76ers @ Miami Heat, 8:10 PM ET - Both teams are coming off big games last night so we expect both defenses to be lax here in what sets up to be a higher scoring game. This Total is set significantly lower than the league average of points scored of 216.8PPG. Miami relies on their 3-point shooting on offense with the 2nd best league average at 37.8%. The Heat have the best overall offensive efficiency rating in the NBA right now in the last five games at 1.214PPP. The 76ers have also been highly efficient in their last five averaging 1.126PPP which is 10th best in the league. Over their last five games the Sixers are shooting 47.9% which is up from their season average of 46.1%. As we mentioned before, this is the second game of a back-to-back and these two teams combined are OVER 8-1-1 when playing without rest and those games averaged 216.8 and 220.8PPG. The Bet here is OVER! |
|||||||
01-15-22 | Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech -6 | Top | 73-79 | Push | 0 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
#754 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech -6 over Notre Dame, Saturday at 6 PM ET - This is an absolute huge home game for Tech. They have underachieved but they are much better than their 8-7 record. They are 0-4 in the ACC and after this game they play 3 consecutive road games which basically makes this a must win. The Hokies enter this game off 3 straight losses (vs Duke, NC State, and Virginia) and Notre Dame has won 6 straight yet Tech is favored by 6. That alone speak volumes. The average rating of ND’s last 6 opponents, all wins, is 160 and 4 of those games were at home. The Irish have played 3 road games thus far in the ACC and they are vs the 3 lowest rated teams in the league. They lost by 16 @ BC, beat Ga Tech in OT, and beat Pitt by 1. Va Tech has a fantastic defense ranked 26th nationally in adjusted efficiency and 41st in eFG% defense. Where they really excel is defending the arc allowing 26% good for 9th in the nation. Bad news for ND who lives at the 3-point line with 39% of their points coming from deep – 32nd in the nation – and they are even better at home hitting 41% from beyond the arc. On the flip side, VT is a great 3-point shooting team hitting 39% of their triples (15th best in the country) and the Irish struggle to defend the arc allowing 34% or 200th nationally. This one sets up really well for the home team in must win mode vs a road team that’s played very easy conference slate thus far (2nd easiest in the ACC). Lay it with Virginia Tech. |
|||||||
01-15-22 | Raiders +6 v. Bengals | Top | 19-26 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
#141 ASA PLAY ON Las Vegas +6 over Cincinnati, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Many feel this might just be a letdown spot for the Raiders coming off a Sunday Night OT win over the Chargers, a game they needed just to get to this point. However, it’s the playoffs and we don’t see a letdown coming in this one. Is it an ideal situation? No but it’s no different than a team playing on Monday night during the regular season with a turnaround game on Sunday. We don’t feel Cincy is in a position to be laying nearly a TD here. They have a young QB who has never been in the playoffs and a head coach who has never coached in the playoffs. The Raiders have been in a win or go home mode for weeks now and they’ve responded with 4 straight wins, including @ Indy and vs the Chargers last week. They are used to this situation. For the season Vegas has a better YPP differential (+0.5 to +0.4) and a better YPG differential (+25 YPG to +11 YPG) despite playing the much tougher schedule (LV SOS was 8th and Cincy was 30th). The Bengals did beat Las Vegas when they met this season but the 32-13 final score was very misleading. The game was 16-13 with less than 6:00 minutes remaining in the game. Neither team did much offensively both getting held under 290 total yards. Home favorites of -7 or less in the wildcard round have been terrible for nearly 20 years (14-28 ATS). We expect a tight game here with both offenses playing it conservatively (neither team has been in the playoffs as of late). |
|||||||
01-14-22 | VCU +3 v. St Bonaventure | Top | 53-73 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
#889 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* VCU +3 over St Bonaventure, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - We’ll be honest. We don’t love taking road teams in college hoops unless the situation is right. One thing we do need most of the time when siding with a road team is good defense which travels. Teams can lose their shooting acumen at times on the road, but defense is a constant. That’s absolutely what we have here with VCU. They rank 3rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, 2nd in eFG% defense, 3rd in 3 point % defense, 14th in 2 point % defense, and 8th in PPG allowed. This team is simply as good as it gets defensively. Their offensive numbers for the season are not great but they are absolutely trending in the right direction on that end of the court as well. The Rams have scored 75 or more in 3 of their last 5 games including topping 80 points in each of their last 2 games. If they do that, they are pretty much unbeatable with the defense they play. They are a perfect 4-0 SU on the road this year including 2 wins over top 100 teams Vanderbilt and Dayton. They average more PPG offensively in road games and allow fewer PPG away from home. This team just simply seems to play better away from home. St Bonnies is a solid team but they need to knock some rust off. They’ve only played one game since December 17th and that was an OT win @ LaSalle on Tuesday. For a recent reference point, VCU just played LaSalle on the road as well last Saturday and dominated the game beating the Explorers by 19 points. The Bonnies defense isn’t nearly at the level of VCU’s ranking 109th in adjusted efficiency and 235th guarding the arc. They have allowed 8 of their last 10 opponents to score more than 1.00 point per possession which isn’t great. For comparison’s sake, VCU has not allowed a single opponent to score 1.00 PPP in a game this year. Zippo in 14 games. The closest was Baylor who put up 0.99 PPP in their 8 point win over VCU and the Bears rank 4th nationally in offensive efficiency. Take the points with the better team and the better defense in this one. |
|||||||
01-14-22 | Raptors v. Pistons OVER 213.5 | Top | 87-103 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 213.5 Toronto Raptors @ Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - We expect a higher scoring game here between the Raptors and Pistons with a predicted finish of 220+ by our computer analytics. Toronto is coming off a defensive grinder against the Suns and will be eager to get their offensive rhythm back prior to a much bigger game tomorrow night versus the Bucks. The Raptors were averaging 118PPG in their 6 previous games before facing a Suns defense that is 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing 1.049-points per possession. Toronto’s 9th best offensive efficiency should have a much easier time scoring tonight against a Pistons defense that ranks 22nd in DEFF and allows 111.3PPG which is 24th. Looking at the Pistons last ten games we see they’ve allowed 133, 140 and 144 points so the potential for a really big number from Toronto is not out of question. Detroit is one of the least efficient offenses in the NBA but they are the 8th fastest which means plenty of possessions. The Raptors aren’t much better defensively than the Pistons as they give up 1.118-points per possession which ranks 20th in the NBA. These two teams met in November and put up 248 points. It won’t be that high tonight but it will be more than the 214 set by the oddsmakers. |
|||||||
01-13-22 | Clippers v. Pelicans UNDER 215 | Top | 89-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215 LA Clippers @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - This number is set slightly lower than the average NBA total right now of 216.6PPG but our math model suggests that this game will not get 210. It starts with pace for both teams with the Clippers checking in at 15th and the Pelicans slower yet at 20th. In their most recent 5 games both are playing slower yet and that shouldn’t change here. If we look at LA’s last five games, we see they are 28th in offensive efficiency at 1.016-points per possession, shooting just 42.9% from the field. New Orleans has been one of the worst offenses in the NBA this season averaging 105.7PPG on 43.7% shooting (26th) and 33.8% 3-point shooting which is 23rd. The Clippers have a top 8 defense in FG% D, 3PT% D and points allowed, giving up 105.3PPG. The Pels have some bad defensive numbers of late but the games they’ve allowed teams to score big numbers have come against some of the league’s elite offenses (Wolves, Suns, Jazz, Bucks) who all rank top 11 in scoring. The Clippers are 23rd in the NBA in average points per game. This is an UNDER BET! |
|||||||
01-13-22 | Sabres v. Predators OVER 6 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
#13/14 ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 6 Goals - Buffalo Sabres at Nashville Predators, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET – The set-up here is ideal to expect plenty of goals. The Predators are off a 5-4 OT win over Colorado. That was a big win for Nashville and they have a tough match-up at Boston on deck. That makes this a tricky spot as the Preds take on the lowly Sabres and potentially overlook them which is going to lead to some goal-scoring for Buffalo in this one. The issue for the Sabres though is that they can not stop opponents and they are dealing with a cluster of issues at the goalie position! Luukkonen and Subban have injuries and Tokarski has been out due to covid. Buffalo will turn to Aaron Dell in goal tonight. Dell has received plenty of goal-scoring support in his starts with Buffalo scoring at least 4 goals in 3 of the 4. The problem is that the Sabres have surrendered an average of 5.5 goals in his 4 starts! Now Dell and the Sabres are visiting a Nashville club that has scored an average of 4.20 goals in winning 5 straight games! In fact, over the last 14 games (12-2 stretch for Predators) it has been a scoring average of just under 4 goals per game! The Predators have allowed just under 3 goals per game last 7 games and we fully expect a 5 to 3 type game here. As you can see per all of the above, plenty of reasons to expect solid goal-scoring from both clubs in this one! Take the OVER here |
|||||||
01-13-22 | Florida Atlantic v. Middle Tennessee -3.5 | Top | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
#790 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Middle Tennessee State -3.5 over Florida Atlantic, Thursday at 7 PM ET - MTSU is just glad to be back at home after not playing here since mid December. The Blue Raiders are coming off 3 straight losses, all on the road. Two of those losses were vs Chattanooga, the top team in the Southern Conference, and then a 7 point loss @ UNT, the 3rd ranked team in CUSA. We were impressed how they fought a very good North Texas team in a very tough spot. MTSU was coming off a tight road loss @ Rice just 2 nights earlier and catching UNT off a rare home loss. FAU, on the other hand, upset Marshall on the road Saturday as 5 points dogs. The Herd played without one of their better players (Darius George) while FAU shot lights out at 54% which was more than 10% higher than their road average coming into the game. The Owls were 0-3 in road games entering that won with losses vs High Points, New Mexico, and VCU. That was a rare road win for Florida Atlantic on Saturday and with that win they’ve still won just 5 of their last 23 true road games. They are a poor defensive team (276th in eFG% defense) and more so on the road where they have allowed opponents to hit 49% of their shots from the field. Defending the arc is a huge problem for the Owls as well ranking 353rd allowing a ridiculous 41% on the season. They also turn the ball over on almost 20% of their possessions which is not good vs MTSU who is very adept at creating turnovers (41st nationally). It’s a double revenger for Middle Tennessee after losing both meetings last year. Both were on the road on back to back nights as that’s the way the played it last year with the Covid situation. Now they get FAU to play FAU here at home and the Raiders will play with urgency coming off 3 losses. Lay it. |