ASA play on OVER 223 Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns, 10 pm ET - Our numbers suggest the oddsmakers were correct on this opening line of 230, hence we like the value with this OVER wager. Our math model is projecting 228.3 total points in this game and even when we crunch the numbers on each teams last 5-games we get an OVER of 224.1. Both teams have slowed their pace in their last 5 games but with these two teams we don’t need a track meet to cash the OVER. That’s because these are two of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA. The Bucks rank 3rd in 3PT% at 38.3%, the Suns are 2nd at 38.4%. Phoenix is the 8th most efficient offense in the NBA on the season averaging 1.169-points per possession, the Bucks are 14th at 1.149PPP. Both offenses are trending up in their last five games with both having OEFF numbers higher than their season numbers. These two teams met just over a week ago in Milwaukee and produced 269 total points, in large part because of great 3-point shooting. The Suns hit 14/33 3’s for 42%, the Bucks went 24 of 41 from Deep for 59%. Even without Lillard or Beal in the lineups for each team we expect a game closer to league average than not.

ASA play on OVER 230 Philadelphia 76ers at New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 pm ET - Both teams are off games yesterday and playing their 3rd game in four days, 5th in eight days. Fatigue will be a factor here and lead to a lack of defense by both teams. On the subject of defense, these two teams don’t play any. On the season the 76ers rank 27th in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.181-points per possession. The Pelicans are 30th or last in the league in DEFF giving up 1.20PPP. Looking closer, we find in each of their last 5-games but defenses have been worse yet with the Pels giving up 1.286PPP, the Sixers are allowing 1.291PPP. The injury riddled 76ers are playing fast without their regulars with the 7th fastest pace of play in the NBA over the last 5 games. New Orleans is about league average in pace of play. The lineups were different at the time, but in January when these teams met in Philly they produced 238 total points. Both teams favor the OVER when playing unrested with a combined 16-10-1 record. With tickets coming in on the UNDER and the line moving up we like the smart money move and OVER.

ASA play on UNDER 225 Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets, 7:10pm ET - This game will have a playoff vibe with the Rockets currently the #2 seed in the Western Conference, the Nuggets are 3rd, 2 games back of Houston. Denver will be without MVP Nikola Jokic and his 29.1ppg and 10.3 assists per game. Denver’s offensive efficiency numbers have fallen off significantly in their last five games compared to their season long statistics. Scoring without the Joker is going to be difficult against this Rockets defense that ranks 3rd best in DEFF allowing just 1.100-points per possession. Denver has managed just 108 and 109-points in their last two games against defenses not as good as this Rockets D. Houston is ‘average’ in terms of points per possession at 1.146PPP and a poor shooting team ranking 26th in EFG%. We expect both defense and pace of play to be the main contributors to a low scoring game between these two teams fighting for better playoff seeding.

#877/878 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 137.5 points - Arkansas State vs North Texas, Sunday at 7 PM ET - We were on Arkansas State in their first round NIT match up with St Louis and picked up an easy win with the Red Wolves rolling up huge offensive numbers (103-78 Final). They shot 54% overall and 46% from deep in what was a very fast paced game with 75+ possessions. That won’t happen here. First of all, UNT will slow this game to a crawl as they do with every game. Secondly, UNT’s defense is outstanding ranking 46th in efficiency, 27th in eFG% allowed, and 19th in 3 point FG% allowed. The Mean Green played a number of games vs high potent, fast paced offenses and for the most part they shut them down in low possession games. They held a high scoring Memphis team (80 PPG) that plays very fast (28th in tempo) to just 68 points on 1.05 PPP (just 65 possessions). They held UAB (81 PPG), who also plays very fast, to just 61 and 66 points in games of just 60 and 64 possessions. Arkansas St averages 79 PPG but they aren’t a great shooting team. They rank 294th in FG% and 288th in 3 point FG%. When they played slow paced, good defensive teams in the Sun Belt (App State and South Alabama) they totaled 116, 120, and 145 points (on only 65 possessions in that last game). UNT is back at home here where they beat Furman 75-64 in a game that had only 58 possessions. The Mean Green are an average shooting team (45%) but hit just under 55% in that game vs a Furman D that ranks 200th in efficiency. Now they face a top 100 D in Arkansas State. Both teams defend the arc at a high level (both top 20) so we don’t expect a ton of points from deep. UNT has allowed 70+ points since December and ASU’s defense allowed 70+ only 6 times in their 18 regular season conference games. This has the makings of a very low possession game where the defenses dominate. Under.

#861/862 ASA PLAY ON Under 150.5 Points - St Mary’s vs Alabama, Sunday at 6:10 PM ET - This total is set too high. We think this gets to the mid 40’s at best and most likely lower. We understand why it’s set high with the Crimson Tide leading the nation in scoring at 91 PPG. We don’t see them getting anywhere close to that in this game. That’s because St Mary’s will slow the heck out of this game (4th slowest team in the country) and the Gaels are also a high level defensive team (7th in the country in D efficiency). It’s much easier to slow a fast team down rather than speed up a slow team. Nobody has been able to get STM going at a high pace. While they are facing the #1 scoring team in the nation on Sunday, the Gaels have already taken on the #2 scoring team (Gonzaga) 3 times. The Zags average 87 PPG on the season and play very fast. In their games vs St Mary’s, they averaged only 61 PPG and held the Zags under 60 points twice. None of those 3 match ups topped 63 possessions. In Friday’s game, STM faced Vandy who is a very high tempo team that ranks 32nd in the country in offensive efficiency and the final score was 59-56 on only 59 possessions. This team has zero chance to win this game in a shootout and they’ll make sure it doesn’t turn into that. On the other end, we’ve talked about Bama’s offense, but their defense is very sold ranking 34th in efficiency. They defend the arc very well (26th) as does St Mary’s (44th). Both teams limit with only 26.9% of STM’s opponents points coming from deep (335th) and 27.1% of Bama’s opponents points coming from 3 (329th). If this one plays out as we expect, we just don’t see how this gets to 150 points unless both teams shoot lights out. We’re on the Under.

ASA play on OVER 222.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings, 10pm ET - The Bucks, sitting 3rd in the NBA for 3-point shooting, are primed to light up the Kings, who rank dead last (30th) at defending the three. Sacramento’s been an offensive beast lately, posting a 117.6 offensive rating over their last ten games (9th in the league), while Milwaukee’s at 115.3 (14th). Their first meeting this season was a 245-point OVER with 104 field goal attempts, way past the league’s 178.4-per-game average. The Kings’ defense isn’t helping either, giving up 119 or more in six straight games. With Milwaukee’s pace (100.2) and Sacramento’s (99.3) keeping things moving, this could turn into another shootout. Sacramento is shooting the ball extremely well right now with the 7th best EFG% over their last fifteen games. Milwaukee is not the defensive juggernaut they were in the past as they currently rank 10th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.127-points per possession. This Bucks vs. Kings game goes OVER 222.5 total points comfortably.

#827/828 ASA PLAY ON Over 154.5 Points – BYU vs Wisconsin, Saturday at 7:45 PM ET - Two of the most efficient offenses in the country going at it in Denver in what we expect will be a high scoring game. BYU ranks 10th nationally in offensive efficiency and Wisconsin ranks 13th and they both average 80 PPG which puts them in the top 35 in the country. These 2 teams shooting the highest percentage of 3’s in the tourney (both around 48% of their shots are triples) and they make them at a high rate (37% and 35%). The weakness of both teams on defense is defending the arc with the Badgers ranking 183rd allowing 33% and BYU ranking 243rd giving up 35%. We think both teams will scoring in bunches from deep. This should be a fairly quick tempo as well with Wisconsin completely changing their philosophy and pushing the ball this season while BYU prefers the same. We shouldn’t have many empty possessions as the Badgers are among the best in the country at taking care of the ball (25th in turnovers per game) and while the Cougs do have a tendency to turn it over, Wisconsin doesn’t create many takeaways (327th). We should see plenty of freebies as well with the Badgers getting to the FT line a lot (30th in FT attempts per game) and they make them at over 83% (#1 in the nation). These two have a combined record of 40-29 to the Over this season and we see another shootout on Saturday.

ASA NHL Hurricanes vs. Kings – UNDER 5.5 Goals - Today’s matchup between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Los Angeles Kings presents a strong case for betting the UNDER 5.5 goals, driven by elite defensive play and recent low-scoring trends from both teams. The Hurricanes rank 5th in the NHL in goals allowed per game at 2.60, while the Kings sit just ahead at 3rd with 2.54. Carolina leads the league in preventing shots on goal, allowing the fewest per game, while the Kings are right behind in 2nd place. Fewer shots mean fewer scoring chances, setting the stage for a tight, low-scoring affair. Both squads excel at neutralizing power plays, with their penalty kill percentages ranking in the top 10 league-wide. The Kings have been a moneymaker for the UNDER bettor, with their games staying below 5.5 goals in 5 straight contests and 8 of their last 10. The Hurricanes aren’t far behind, with games involving them dipping below 5.5 goals in 7 of their last 10. With two of the NHL’s best defenses squaring off, expect a grind-it-out battle where scoring chances are at a premium.

#787/798 ASA PLAY ON Over 160 Points – Xavier vs Illinois, Friday at 9:45 PM ET - Two fast paced teams with high level offenses should equal a high scoring game here. The Illini average 84 PPG on the season and they are a top 15 offense in terms of efficiency. They are also a very good offensive rebounding team (18th nationally) so extra opportunities on the offensive end should be available. They are not a good 3 point shooting team, however that speaks to how good their offense is despite that (PPG & efficiency). If they shoot above average from deep, this offense can up piles of points (they put up big time points without doing that). They should do plenty of damage inside ranking 18th in 2 point FG% facing an undersized XU defense that ranks 159th defending inside the arc. Xavier is the 9th best 3 point shooting team in the country and facing an Illinois defense whose weakness is guarding the arc (143rd nationally). Both teams are very good at taking care of the ball so wasted possessions will be few. We should get a bunch of extra points from the FT line as both shoot it very well (79% for XU and 76% for Illinois). The Illini are 18th in adjusted tempo and Xavier is 76th so we’ll have plenty of possessions in this game. A fast paced team with 2 teams that rank in the top 65 nationally in PPP vs OK but not great defenses should lead to big points. We like both to get to 80 in this game giving us an Over.

ASA play on OVER 232 Detroit Pistons at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30pmET - The OVER 232 looks promising in this matchup. Dallas’ defense has been porous over their last 10 games, allowing a league-worst points in the paint, ranking 23rd in fastbreak points allowed, 24th in second-chance baskets, and 29th in Defensive Rating, while surrendering over 129 points per game. This game should see a ton of possessions, with Detroit ranking 2nd in pace and Dallas 7th over the last 10 games. Offensively, the Pistons are 8th in Effective Field Goal Percentage (EFG%) and have scored 120+ points in three of their last five, while the Mavericks sit at a decent 17th in EFG%. With both teams pushing the tempo and Dallas struggling to stop anyone, expect this one to sail past 232.

ASA play on OVER 226.5 Milwaukee Bucks at LA Lakers – 10:40 pm ET - These two teams met on March 13th in Milwaukee and produced 232 total points. That game was played at an average pace with average shooting by both teams and it climbed OVER the number of 226.5. We expect a very similar result tonight. Milwaukee is coming off a horrible showing against the Warriors a couple of nights ago in which they managed just 17-points in two of the four quarters. The Bucks are the 7th best overall shooting team in the NBA at 47.9% and rank 2nd in 3PT% at 38.3%. Milwaukee ranks 14th in Offensive Efficiency at 1.146-points per possession. The Lakers are 12th in OEFF on the season and have been even more efficient in their last 5-games at 1.176PPP. LA has the 9th best FG% at 47.9% and rank 16th in 3PT% at 35.9%. The Lakers are playing at a faster rate in their last 5 games without LeBron and tempo will play an important role in this OVER. Milwaukee is 11th in pace of play on the season and will look to get out and run against a Lakers defense that allows the 25th most fast break points in the league. Five of the last six meetings between these two teams has flown OVER the total.

#745/746 ASA PLAY ON Under 134 Points - McNeese State vs Clemson, Thursday at 3:15 PM ET (Providence, RI) - These are 2 of the slowest paced teams in the tourney facing off so we do not expect many offensive possessions.  Clemson ranks 327th in adjusted tempo and McNeese ranks 283rd.  What we really like about this match up in regards to the Under, is both defenses make opposing offenses really work to get a decent shot.  Clemson’s opponents average a shot every 19.1 seconds which is the 2nd best mark in the country.  McNeese opponents average a shot every 18.6 seconds which is 19th in the country.  The Tigers had the 2nd best defensive efficiency in the ACC behind only Duke and 16th best in the nation.  The Cowboys were by far the best defensive team (efficiency) in the Southland and they rank 66th nationally.  Against higher level offensive teams early in the season, McNeese held Alabama (#1 scoring offense in the country) to 72 points, the Tide’s 2nd lowest point total of the year and 19 points below their season average.  They also held Mississippi State to 66 points (they average 80 PPG) and they held Liberty, NCAA tourney team and one of the best shooting teams in the country, to 62 points which was also their season low.  Both create defensive turnovers at a high rate (both #1 in their conferences) which leads to empty possessions for their opponent.  Clemson held 11 of their final 13 opponents to less than 70 points with only Duke (#3 nationally in offensive efficiency) and Louisville (#29 in offensive efficiency) topping that number.  McNeese only allowed 7 of their 31 opponents this season to top 70 points.  This has the makings of a low possession (low 60’s?), defensive battle and we’ll grab the Under.

#747/748 ASA PLAY ON Over 152 Points – High Point vs Purdue, Thursday at 12:40 PM ET - We expect both offense to have a lot of success in this one. Both rank in the top 10 nationally in FG% and Purdue ranks 7th nationally in offensive efficiency while High Point steps in at 25th in that metric. While the Panthers are really good offensively (18th nationally averaging 82 PPG) they are really poor defensively. Their defensive efficiency ranks 227th which is the 6th worst mark in the 68 team NCAA field. Their pick and roll defense is really poor which is bad news facing a Purdue team with PG Smith and F Kaufman-Renn are as good as any duo in the country at P&R offense. The top P&R offense in the Big South, UNC Asheville, lit the High Point defense up for 103 and 86 points in their 2 meetings and they are nowhere near the same level as this Purdue offense. On the other end, High Point should be able to put up points vs this Purdue defense that was way down from previous editions ranking 12th in the Big 10 in eFG% allowed and dead last in 2 points FG% allowed. The Panthers are a very good 3 point shooting team (36.6% and all of their top 7 players hit at least 33% from deep) but they like to work inside the arc as well where they rank 15th in the country in 2 point FG% which matches up well against the Boiler defense. Both offenses are very solid at protecting the ball and above average offensive rebounding teams so both should have decent shot volume numbers in this game (both top 70 in FG’s made per game). High Point is going to have to put the ball in the hoop to keep up here because they won’t be able to stop Purdue. We think the Panthers can do that and this one sails Over the Total.

ASA play on OVER 217.5 Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat, 7:40pm ET - This game has all the makings of an ‘average’ NBA game which is great for our OVER bet. The average total points scored in an NBA game this season and for the last several years is 227.4 total points per game. Obviously, if these two play ‘average’ it goes OVER easily. In fact, our math model is projecting 221.6 total points being scored. This will be the fourth and final meeting of the season for these two teams. On October 28th they combined for 204 total points. In mid-November and mid-December, they played two OT games, but in regulation they totaled 228 and 222. Miami has had some problems scoring of late with four straight games of 104 or less points but they’ve also come against good defensive teams. Detroit is top 8 in Defensive Efficiency ratings this season, but they should have some success with their 3PT shooting against a Pistons D that ranks 22nd in 3PT% allowed. Detroit plays with pace and is the 7th fastest tempo team in the league at 100 possessions per game. We are not asking these two teams to score 235 or anything ridiculous, just be average and we cash an easy win.

ASA NHL play on Colorado Avalanche vs. Toronto Maple Leafs – Over 5.5 Goals - Take the Over 5.5 Goals in tonight’s clash between the Colorado Avalanche and Toronto Maple Leafs. These two high-octane offenses have a proven track record of lighting up the scoreboard against each other. In their most recent meeting, they combined for a whopping 11 goals, and the trend doesn’t stop there. Over the last three straight head-to-head matchups, they’ve hit 7 or more goals each time, and in 6 of their last 7 meetings, the nets have been buzzing. With Colorado’s explosive attack (averaging around 3.4 goals per game) facing Toronto’s leaky defense, and the Leafs’ potent offense (around 3.3 goals per game) testing Colorado’s blueline, expect another goal-fest. The Over is the play here.

ASA play on UNDER 228 Milwaukee Bucks at Golden State Warriors, 10:10 pm ET - We were fortunate to bet this game UNDER 234 when it opened but now find this number at 229 with the announcement Steph Curry will not play tonight. We still feel there is value in this UNDER as long as it stays above 227. If we examine recent trends for both teams we find that both teams have been excellent defensively in their last 15 games. The Warriors Defensive Net rating of 108.2 ranks 3rd best, the Bucks 109.7 ranks 5th. When we look at each teams season numbers offensively we find both rank near league average in Offensive Net ratings with the Bucks 14th the Warriors 16th. Golden State is off a game last night against the Nuggets and when playing without rest this season they have stayed UNDER in 7 of eleven games by an average of -11.4ppg. The Bucks are 9-13 UNDER this season against the Western Conference. The Bucks have recently faced three similar defenses to the Warriors and struggled offensively scoring 105 against the Thunder, 100 vs. Cleveland and 109 against the Magic. Golden State’s offense has sputtered in two straight games, managing 97 points against the Knicks and 105 last night versus Denver.

ASA NHL play on OVER 5.5 GOALS Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadians, 7:07pm ET - For the Ottawa Senators, through 66 games, they’ve scored 194 goals and allowed 185 goals or 2.94 GF/GP and 2.80 GA/GP. For the Montreal Canadiens, through 66 games, they’ve scored 195 goals and allowed 214 goals: 2.95 GF/GP and 3.24 GA/GP. In a head-to-head scenario, we typically model it as each team’s offense versus the other’s defense and factor in the efficiency rates for both teams. In this matchup our model is projecting 5.88 total goals being scored. These two teams have met twice already this season with the Canadians winning both 4-1 and 5-2. In the last eight meetings one of the two teams has scored 4+ goals and all eight have finished with 5 or more total goals being scored. Ottawa has played in three straight higher scoring games with 7, 8 and 6 total goals being scored. Montreal’s last three games have finished with 4, 9 and 6 total goals.

#643/644 ASA PLAY ON Under 144 Points - Florida vs Tennessee, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This total opened 140 and has crept up to 143.5 and 144.  Too high in our opinion.  We understand why with the Gators coming of 2 very high scoring games in this SEC tourney vs Missouri (176 total points) and Alabama (186 total points).  Florida went off on offense averaging 1.30 and 1.33 PPP in those 2 wins.  Those were ultra fast paced games with 73 and 78 possessions vs defensive teams that didn’t match  up very well with the Gators.  Now we have a Tennessee team that will slow this game down and they match up very well defensively vs Florida who like to get out in transition.  In the first meeting the Vols did allow 18 points on the break which was the most they’ve given up this season.  They made adjustments in the second meeting and Florida had only 8 fast break points.  You can bet UT will make sure the Gators can’t get out and run today.  On the other side, the Vols aren’t a great shooting team ranking 8th in the SEC in 3 point FG% and 11th in 2 point FG% and they are running into a high level Florida defense that is 7th nationally in defensive efficiency (Tenn is 3rd nationally in that metric).  When it comes to eFG% defense, Tennessee ranks #1 in the country and Florida #6.  Both of these defenses are elite.  In their 2 meetings this year they totaled 116 points (73-43 Florida win) and 110 points (64-44 Tennessee win).  As you can see, only 1 team topped 70 in those 2 meetings and twice they were held under 50 points.  These 2 defenses are fantastic defending the arc (1st and 7th nationally) and it showed in those 2 meetings where they combined to go 20 of 98 from 3.  These teams know each other very well and obviously know how to defend the opposing offense.  They’ve had 4 straight Unders in this series with 3 of those games failing to top 123 total points.  We don’t think either team gets to 70 points here so grabbing the Under.

ASA play on UNDER 235.5 Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10pm ET - These two teams really don’t like each other and this matchup has become one of the better current rivalries in the NBA. They just met in Indiana earlier in the week and produced 229 total points when Haliburton converted a 4-point play late for the win. The takeaway from that game was the total field goal attempts which was 171, lower than a regular NBA game of 178.4. Both teams shot above expectations at 51% which is better than their season average of 48.9% and 48.1%. This game has a playoff feel to it and we expect both defenses to step up and make every shot difficult. If you exclude OT these two have stayed UNDER this number in 7 of the last nine meetings. Indiana is coming off a game last night and have favored the UNDER when playing without rest at 4-6 this season. Milwaukee also has a slight tendency to play UNDER with a rest advantage with a 16-18-1 record. Indiana has stayed UNDER in 4 straight games and 8 of their last ten. In each teams last ten games the defenses have been above average with the Pacers ranking 13th in Net Rating, the Bucks are 5th. Both teams are also closer to average in Offensive Net rating at 116.0 and 116.4. Our math model tells us this game will be closer to the league average of 227.4 total points per game than the oddsmakers number of 235.

ASA NHL play on OVER 5.5 GOALS Tampa Bay at Boston – 7:07 pm ET - Boston has scored 3 or more goals in 4 of their last five games and they’ve allowed 6 goals in 2 of their last five. Tampa Bay has had some issues defensively allowing 4 or more goals in four straight games. The Lightning have also produced 3 or more goals in 3 of their last five and put up 6 goals twice. Tampa Bay is 2nd in the NHL in Goals for per game at 3.49, Boston is 25th a 2.72. Boston is allowing 3.15 goals against, the Lightning allow 2.69. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league is shots against so both should get plenty of opportunities to put shots on goal. In the last seven head-to-head meetings one of the two teams has scored 3 goals. In the last three meetings one team has put up 4 or more goals. We are betting 6 or more goals get scored in this one.

#609/610 ASA PLAY ON Under 145.5 Points – Wisconsin vs Michigan State, Saturday at 1 PM ET - We were on MSU vs Oregon Under yesterday and we’re coming right back with another Under on Saturday. MSU ranks 5th in the nation in defensive efficiency and since mid February they rank 1st in the country in that metric. Yesterday they completely shut down Oregon from beyond the arc (21% shooting) and allowed just 64 points. The Spartans have held 7 of their last 8 opponents to 66 points or less including limiting Wisconsin to just 62 points on March 2nd. The Badgers shot just 34% and made only 5 triples in that 71-62 loss. On Friday they lit up UCLA shooting 52% and hit 19 three pointers and we anticipate they come nowhere near that on Saturday vs Sparty. While Wisconsin’s offense has been talked about all season, their defense has quietly become really good. Their defense has moved into the top 30 nationally in efficiency and since February 1st they rank 23rd in that metric. They held the Spartans to less than 1.00 PPP in their meeting a few weeks ago. MSU did hit 47% of their 3’s yesterday (and the game still only reached 138) and that is not the norm for this team who averages 30% from beyond the arc (324th nationally). The Spartan defense is set up perfectly to defend Wisconsin’s 3 point attack as they allow just 27% on the season (2nd nationally) and held the Badgers to 5 of 32 from deep on March 2nd. This has been a defensive series with only 1 of the last 6 meetings topping 134 points and the average total points scored in those 6 meetings was 134. Tired legs could be a factor in shooting success on Saturday with Wisconsin playing their 3rd game in 3 days and MSU playing their 2nd in back to back days. These teams know each other very well and we’ll call for a lower scoring game than expected.

#825/826 ASA PLAY ON Under 148 Points - Wichita State vs Memphis, Friday at 1 PM ET - In their 2 meetings this season, these AAC foes totaled 114 and 142 (in regulation) and both games were under 70 possessions in regulation (one went to double OT).  The teams dominated on the defensive end in those meetings with PPP numbers (efficiency) of 1.09, 1.03, 0.90, and 0.77.  Both of these teams turn the ball over a lot (12th and 13th in the AAC in offensive turnover rate) and that leads to empty possessions.  In fact, in their 2 meetings this season there were a whopping 60 combined turnovers.  Memphis likes to play fast but it was obvious with the tempo results of the 2 games that Wichita wants to make this a slower paced game.  Their offense isn’t good enough (283rd in offensive efficiency and 349th in 3 point FG%) to win a high scoring affair so we expect another game with the possessions in the 60’s.  Both defenses are very solid ranking #1 (Memphis) and #4 in efficiency in conference play.  Neither team takes many 3 pointers with the Shockers ranking 358th in 3 point attempts and the Tigers 299th.  They only combined to make 23 triples in their 2 games this season and shot just 39% from the field.  Neither team topped 71 points in either game in regulation and we don’t think they will here.  Under.

#813/814 ASA PLAY ON Under 143.5 Points – Michigan State vs Oregon, Friday at 12 PM ET - MSU is one of the top defensive teams in the country (5th nationally in defensive efficiency) and Oregon is no slouch (30th nationally in defensive efficiency).  Sparty has been great on defense all season long and the Ducks have upped their game on that end of the court over the last month.  In fact, Oregon has held 5 of their last 7 opponents to less than 1.00 PPP including a Wisconsin offense that ranks 12th nationally averaging 1.23 PPP.  In fact, since mid February the Ducks defense ranks 12th in the country in efficiency and MSU ranks 2nd.  The Spartans have held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 66 points or less including potent offensive teams Wisconsin, Purdue, and Illinois (all top 15 nationally in offensive efficiency).  Oregon has had 2 OT games over their last 7, however if we strictly look at regulation, they’ve also held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 68 points or less.  These 2 met once this season and they total was set at 146 and despite the 2 teams going well Over the total hitting 160 total points, the total for this game is set lower.  In that first meeting, there were 69 possessions which isn’t a lot, although we expect fewer today, MSU’s defense was terrible (very rare) in the first half allowing 50 total points to the Ducks, then held them to 24 in the 2nd half.  Then Sparty put up 50 in the 2nd half after scoring just 36 in the first half.  Both teams offensive efficiency was MUCH higher than these defenses normally allow, they combined to make 40% of their 45 three point attempts and they combined to make 40 FT’s.  We don’t see either repeating that offensive performance against defenses playing at their peak right now in a tense, tournament format.  Oregon is 50/50 on Over/Unders this season but MSU is 21-10 to the Under this season.  Buckets will be tough to come by in this game.  Let’s go Under.

ASA play on OVER 233 Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors, 10 pm ET - These teams met in late February and produced 240 total points and OVER 237. In two meetings in January they produced 240 and 228 total points. The OVER is 5-1 the last six meetings. Scheduling favors an OVER wager here too as both teams tend to play in higher scoring games with 2-3 days rest. Combined they are 9-15-1 to the OVER in this scheduling situation. When it comes to playing within the Division, these two are a combined 15-9 OVER this season. In each teams last 10 games the offenses have been humming with the Warriors ranking 3rd in Offensive Net Rating, the Kings are 8th. These two teams rank 10th and 11th in EFG% so both are shooting the rock well in this 10-game stretch. The Warriors are going to have success from beyond the arc with the 13th best 3PT% going up against a Kings D that ranks 29th in opponents FG% defense. The Kings are going to score with volume (7th in field goal attempts this season) and good shooting (10th in FG%). There is some value in this number which is 4-points lower than the number set on these same two teams just a few weeks ago.

#793/794 ASA PLAY ON Under 132.5 Points - Abilene Christian vs Seattle, Thursday at 9 PM ET - These 2 met twice this season and totaled 130 and 134 points and this number is basically set right in the middle of those 2 performances. Neither team topped 1.04 PPP in either game and 2 of the 4 offensive data points were less than 1.00 PPP. We don’t expect that to change here in a do or die setting on a neutral site (unfamiliar court). Both defenses are high level ranking the top 100 nationally in efficiency while offensive they both rank outside the top 325 in eFG%. Neither team scores much from 3 (270th and 361st in 3’s made per game) and they simply don’t shoot well from deep when they do get looks (257th and 321st in 3 point FG%). The shot volume for each team should be low in this one as both create turnovers at a high level (which leads to wasted offensive possessions) and neither are good offensive rebounding teams (which limits 2nd chances). In their 2 meetings this season, both teams in both games had turnover rates of higher than 20% which is really poor. Seattle is the slowest paced team in the WAC and while ACU prefers a faster pace, the slower team usually gets their tempo so expect a lower possession game (67.5 average possessions in first 2 meetings). Seattle’s defense allows just 59 PPG in league play and they’ve allowed 67 points or less in 8 of their last 9 games, including 5 of those opponents failing to reach 60 points. In ACU’s games vs the 3 slowest paced teams in the league (Seattle, Cal Baptist and Tarleton St) the total points scored were 130, 134, 119, 143, 123, and 114 points for an average of 127. Let’s go Under in this one.

#663/664 ASA PLAY ON Under 138.5 Points - Charlotte vs Rice, Wednesday at 1 PM ET - These 2 met twice this season in 2 very slow paced games and we expect the same on Wednesday. In their first meeting Rice won 66-58 in a game that had only 57 possessions. The Owls averaged 1.19 PPP in that win which is way above their AAC average of 1.08. Rice averaged only 0.96 PPP which was good but not far off their 1.03 PPP in conference play. The teams combined to shoot almost 42% which is dead on their season averages. The 2nd meeting only had 60 possessions but the 2 offenses went crazy for a 78-75 final score. They averaged 1.23 and 1.28 PPP which is WAY above their averages which we posted above. They also combined to make 23 of 47 three pointers and 38 made FT’s. The 49 attempts FT’s in the 2nd meeting were 10 more than these 2 allow combined on the season. Definitely an outlier offensive performance from both teams. Both teams rank outside the top 300 nationally in offensive FG%. Along with that they rank 298th and 183rd in 3 point FG% so we don’t look for a lights out shooting game on a neutral site in Denton, TX. If they don’t send each other to the FT line 50 times like the 2nd meeting, this should stay in the high 120’s, low 130’s. Under.

#629/630 ASA PLAY ON Over 145.5 Points – Montana State vs Northern Colorado, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting some value on this total in our opinion. These 2 faced off twice this season and the totals set in those games were 152.5 and 149.5 and now we’re getting a total set 2+ possessions lower than that. Their first meeting was high scoring with NCU winning 83-82 coming back from 20 points down to pick up the road win. The more recent meeting in February ended with a final of 73-66 with NCU again coming out on top. In that game both teams played below their season offensive efficiency numbers (conference play) and by a decent margin. They combined to shoot barely 40% from the field which was also well below their season averages of 51% for NCU and 46% for MSU. Even with the offensive struggles, they still nearly got to 140 and this total is only 5 to 6 points higher than that. Montana State’s offense has been really good their last 3 games since benching leading scorer, big man Brandon Walker who was a high usage, ball stopper when it came to offensive ball movement. Since his benching, the Bobcats have topped their season PPP average (efficiency) in each of those 3 games. They are shooting 53% during that stretch while putting g up 81 PPG. They really don’t need to come close to those numbers in this game for it to go Over, just keep playing well offensively which we expect them to do. NCU is one of the top shooting teams in the nation at 51% (#1 in the country) and 38% from beyond the arc (28th in the nation). They average 81 PPG on the season and they’ve put up at least 75 points in 13 of their 18 Big Sky games so far this season. The Bears last 2 games were fairly low scoring, however they were both vs Weber State who is a slow paced team with a bad offense (275th in offensive efficiency). Prior to that NCU had 4 straight games that reached at least 153 total points. This should be a close game so we don’t anticipate one team grabbing a big lead and coasting, both will have to “keep up” offensively. Over is the play in this Big Sky semifinal game.

ASA NHL play on OVER 5.5 GOALS (-130) Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild – 8pm ET - The situation is ripe for a shootout between these two teams in what shapes up to be a higher scoring game. The Wild are 11th defensively in goals against per game of 2.86 for the season and in recent action they have allowed 3 or more goals in 8 of their last nine games. Colorado is giving up an average of 2.95 goals per game which ranks 16th in the NHL. The Avs clearly have the better offensive number ranking 6th in total goals this season while averaging 3.36 per game. Minnesota is further down the rankings at 2.77 goals per game which ranks 25th. Colorado is coming off a game on Monday and have gone OVER in 5 of eight this season without rest. Four of the last five meetings between these two teams has finished with 7 goals. The Wild have just two total goals in their last two games but they did have 68 total shots on goal and if they get 30 plus attempts here the sheer volume should result in several goals.

ASA play on OVER 238 Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets, 10 pm ET - In this game we get two top 10 shooting teams with the Suns hitting 47.7% for the season overall and 37.8% from the 3-point line (4th). The Nuggets rank 1st in team FG% at 50.7%, 3rd in 3PT% at 38%. Denver is the 2nd best team in the league in Offensive Efficiency rating at 1.20PPP, the Suns rank 9th at 1.158PPP. Neither team plays much defense with the Nuggets ranking 18th in DEFF, Phoenix is worse yet, ranking 27th in Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.179-points per possession. Phoenix has allowed 116 or more points in 9 of their last ten games and Denver is putting up an average of 121.9ppg in their last ten games. We like the current betting trends as more money and tickets have come in on the under in this game, yet the line is trending up which suggests smart money action. Bet the OVER in this one.

#841/842 ASA PLAY ON Under 141.5 Points – Colorado State vs Boise State, Friday at 10 PM ET - These 2 MWC rivals met in late January and CSU won 75-72 with the total set at 140. There were only 62 possessions in that game but both offenses performed above their average efficiency in conference play. They scored 20 points in the final 3:00 minutes (game was at 127 with just over 3:00 remaining) to push it over. They combined to shoot 49% overall and 40.5% from beyond the arc, both above their season averages. This is a battle for 2nd place in the MWC and we expect the intensity level on the defensive end to be high for this match up in another low possession game. Both teams are playing outstanding right now on the defensive end of the court. Per Haslam Metrics, CSU has outperformed their expected defensive metrics in 5 of their last 6 games while Boise has done the same in 7 of their last 10 games. Per Bart Torvik analytics, since mid February, CSU ranks in the top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency and Boise in the top 60. The Rams are on a 6 game winning streak in which they’ve allowed an average of 59 PPG. Boise has allowed just 62 PPG over their last 10 games and they’ve allowed just 1 team to reach 70 points during that run. CSU has allowed only 3 teams to reach 70 points in their last 10 games. We expect another low possession game (241st and 265th in adjusted tempo) with not a lot of scoring opportunities (these 2 rank 294th and 312th in shot attempts per game). We don’t think either team tops 70 in this game which lands us on the Under.

#793/794 ASA PLAY ON Over 149.5 Points – Illinois Chicago vs Valparaiso, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - These 2 just played to close out the regular season on Sunday and hit 150 total points with UIC winning 77-73.  That game had 75 possessions, which was to be expected with these teams ranking 3rd and 4th in Horizon League tempo.  They got to 150 points despite the offensive efficiency numbers being quite low with UIC averaging 1.01 PPP (they average 1.08) and Valpo put up just 0.96 (they average 1.07).  That was their 2nd meeting of the season with the first one hitting 155 total points (with UIC winning 81-74).  In the 2 meetings they shot just 43% (108 of 250) overall and 33% from beyond the arc (27 of 81) so nothing great.  In fact those numbers are below both team’s season average and both meetings still pushed into the 150’s.  Defensively both teams rank outside the top 200 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed.  If these teams step it up on offense and just hit their averages, this should get well into the 150’s or higher.

ASA play on UNDER 219.5 Detroit Pistons at LA Clippers, 10:40pm ET - These two teams recently met in Detroit and produced 203 total points with the Pistons winning at home 106-97. The Clippers were coming off a game the night before and simply didn’t have the juice on the second night of a back-to-back. That has been a theme for the Clippers who are 3-9 UNDER this season when playing without rest. If the second game of that 2-game leg is at home, where they are on a 5 straight UNDER streak (5-1 for the year). L.A. is off a pair of big games against the Lakers then played Tuesday in Phoenix so fatigue will be a factor. The Pistons are coming off a 134-106 win against the 15-win Jazz who have the worst Defensive Efficiency stats in the NBA. Tonight, Detroit will face a Clippers team that is 4th on the season in DEFF allowing just 1.102-points per possession. The Pistons defense is 11th on the season in Defensive Efficiency. Detroit has faced a handful of teams recently that rank in the top half of the league in pace of play which has led to a few higher scoring games. Tonight, they face a Clippers team that prefers to play slow, ranking 17th in pace. Offensively the Pistons are 14th in OEFF, the Clippers are 22nd. We like UNDER in this one.

#707/708 ASA PLAY ON OVER 160.5 Points - Missouri vs Oklahoma, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - One very interesting aspect of this match up is that this total is set 9 points higher than the first meeting on February 12th despite that game going Under the Total. That’s a tip off in our opinion. When these to met @ Mizzou the final score was 82-58 in favor of the Tigers so well Under that posted total which was 152. Both teams played well under their offensive efficiency averages in that game (PPP) with Missouri putting up 1.11 PPP (they average 1.26) and Oklahoma 0.78 PPP (they average 1.18). The teams combined to make only 9 three point shots in 34 attempts (26%). On the season they combine to average 18 three point makes per game and both shoot around 37% from deep so that meeting was way below expectation. Both like to play up tempo and there were 74 possession in the first meeting and we’d expect a similar number here. The Sooners offense averages 83 PPG at home and they rank in the top 30 nationally in offensive efficiency. Defense is not their specialty as they’ve allowed at least 80 points in 7 of their last 80 games. The Missouri offense ranks 5th in the country in offensive efficiency and they’ve scored at least 80 points in 9 of their last 10 games. While we expect both offenses to play to a much higher efficiency in this game, the one thing we can probably count on is a lot of points from the FT line. In the first game they combined to make 43 FT’s which isn’t a surprise as they each rank in the top 15 nationally in FT’s made per game. If they duplicate, or even get close, to that number while pushing their averages in offensive efficiency, this should be an easy over. Both get to at least 80 points pushing this one Over.

ASA play on OVER 227 Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:10pm ET - This will be the 3rd meeting this season between these two Eastern Conference foes and we predict another OVER and higher scoring game. In the first two clashes these two teams combined for 235 and 232 total points. Both teams shot extremely well in both games. Cleveland is the best offensive team in the NBA averaging 1.229-points per possession. They have the best overall EFG% at 58.7% and are putting up 124ppg at home this season. Miami’s defense is not what it used to be as they rank 13th in DEFF allowing 1.134PPP. Miami is 12th in OEFF and makes a living with 3-point shooting. The Heat rank 10th in made 3-pointers, 11th in attempts and 14th in 3PT%. The Cavs defense is very good, but they do struggle to defend the 3-point line allowing 36% shooting by opponents which ranks 19th in the league. The Cavs are coming off a game last night and when they play without rest they are 9-3 OVER this season with those games going OVER by an average of +8.9ppg. This game will get into the 230’s.

#863/864 ASA PLAY ON Under 131.5 Points - UCLA vs Northwestern, Monday at 9 PM ET - This game should have very few offensive possessions with these teams ranking 317th and 318th in adjusted tempo, 16th and 17th in conference play only out of 18 teams. NW has slowed the pace down even more since losing their 2nd and 3rd leading scorers (Barnhizer & Leach) for the season to injuries. The only way they can compete after losing that offensive firepower, those 2 combined to average 32 PPG, is to turn their games into slugfests which is exactly what they’ve done. After going on a big run of Overs this season, the Cats have now gone Under the total in 3 of their last 4 games. Their most recent game vs Iowa was a snapshot of exactly how they want to play. The Hawkeyes are one of the fastest paced teams in the nation and are averaging 82 PPG on the year which puts them in the top 15 nationally. Last Friday night, the Cats slowed their game with Iowa to a crawl (just 61 possessions) and held the high scoring Hawks to just 57 points (68-57 final score). The NW defense has been lights out holding 4 straight opponents to 1.00 PPP or less holding those 4 opponents to 59 PPG. The Wildcat offense has actually played OK during that stretch averaging 69 PPG, however now they run into a physical UCLA defense that has much better numbers efficiency wise (17th nationally in defensive efficiency) than any of NW’s recent opponents. The Bruins have held 7 of their last 10 opponents to 68 points or fewer with only Purdue, Illinois, and USC topping that number. Those offenses rank 1st, 3rd and 8th in offensive efficiency in the Big 10. Tonight the Bruins face a Northwestern offense thar ranks 18th (dead last) in the conference in eFG% and that was with 2 of their top scorers playing the vast majority of the season to this point. With those 2 gone, we don’t see much success for the Cats offense in this one. This should be a low possession, low scoring game with both defenses dominating. Take the Under.

ASA play on UNDER 254 Atlanta Hawks at Memphis Grizzlies, 8pm ET - Our Math Model is projecting 236 total points on this game and even though we have the two fastest paced teams in the NBA facing off, we have to bet UNDER. Combined these two teams have had an O/U set of 250 or higher just one time in 160 total games this season. That was a game the Grizzlies were involved in against the Pacers which finished with 240 total points. Atlanta is 21st in Offensive Efficiency and 17th in Defensive Efficiency. Memphis is 6th in OEFF, 9th in DEFF. In the only other meeting this season between these two teams the O/U was set at 232.5 or a full 20+ points lower than tonight’s number. They combined for 240 points in that game. Atlanta has 3 big games on deck as they face the Bucks tomorrow night then the Pacers twice. Memphis has a huge 2 games looming against the Thunder and Mavericks. We doubt either team is interested in turning this game into a track meet and let’s face it, all it will take is one bad quarter by either team and they don’t get to 250. Bet UNDER.

ASA play on OVER 220.5 NY Knicks at Miami Heat, 6:10pm ET - We feel the oddsmakers had the correct line on this game when they opened with 224 on this Over/Under and will now bet the value on OVER 221. For the older bettors, this is not the old days when Van Gundy/Ewing and the Knicks battled the Riley/Morning led Heat in a defensive mid-80’s type game. Gone are the days of playing defense and physicality in the NBA as it’s all about scoring and 3’s now. On the season the Heat rank 12th in Defensive Efficiency but in their last 5 games they fall to 18th. The Knicks rank 22nd in DEFF on the year, 25th in their last 5 games. The Knicks beat teams with an offense that is 2nd in the NBA in Offensive Efficiency, has the 3rd best FG% at 49% and the 6th best 3PT% at 37%. New York should get plenty of good looks against a Miami defense that is 14th in FG% D overall and 17th in 3PT% defense. Miami is 12th on the season in OEFF at 1.124-points per possession and since the Butler trade has been better yet at 1.166PPP. Both teams have favored the OVER this season with a combined 65-52 record. When Miami has been a home underdog the OVER has cashed 6 of eight times. As a road favorite the Knicks are 12-9 OVER this season. In Conference games these two have a combined 42-33 OVER record. At the end of the day we are betting value in numbers and this line is to high.

ASA PLAY ON Under 147.5 Points – Wisconsin vs Michigan State, Sunday at 1:30 PM ET - MSU has been an Under machine with 19 Unders in their 28 games so far this season and they are 6-2 to the Under at home in Big 10 play.  They have the top defense in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed.  Sparty is allowing just 66 PPG in league play (#1 in the conference) and they allow that same number at home for the entire season.  Sparty has been able to slow down some very high level offenses this season limiting Illinois to 65, Purdue to 66, Michigan to 62, and Maryland to 55, all top 5 Big 10 offenses (efficiency).  MSU is one of the slower paced teams in the conference (14th in adjusted tempo) and while Wisconsin is playing faster this year, they still rank just 11th in the Big 10 in adjusted tempo.  The Badger defense struggled at times early in the season, but they’ve really played well over the last month and half or so vaulting all the way up to 3rd in the conference in defensive efficiency and 4th in defensive scoring allowed.  Since late January the Wisconsin defense is rated in the top 25 in efficiency per Bart Torvik.  They’ve held 10 of their last 14 opponents to less than 70 points.  This game has huge implications in the race for the Big 10 Title with MSU in 1st place and Wisconsin in 3rd.  We think defense rules the day in this one.  These 2 have only reached 150 points twice in their last 10 meetings and the average total points scored in those match ups is just 136.  Take the Under.

ASA play on UNDER 228.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40pm ET - This game sets up to be slightly lower scoring than an average NBA game and there is value in this UNDER with the current number. On the season the Bucks have played at a faster rate with 100.36 possessions per game ranking 8th. Since the AS break and the trade deadline they have slowed to 100.8 possessions per game ranking 12th. Dallas is 15th (average) on the in pace of play and have remained there since the AS break. Both teams are above average for the season in terms of Defensive Efficiency with the Bucks ranking 10th allowing 1.126-points per possession, the Mavs rank 14th at 1.139PPP. Looking at both teams full season statistics, they rank in the top half of the league in Offensive Efficiency but in their last five games it’s been a different story. In each teams last 5 games the Bucks rank 18th in OEFF, the Mavericks rank 25th. The Bucks are on a 6-game UNDER streak in road games with their last 3 away from home all finishing with less than 206 total points. Dallas has stayed UNDER in 3 straight home games and 4 of their last six. Both teams’ strengths offensively are the others defensive strength so we don’t see either team putting up more than 113 total points. We like UNDER here.

ASA play on OVER 243.5 San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies, 8 pm ET - The most important aspect of this game will be the pace of play. The Grizzlies are the fastest paced team in the NBA this season at 104 possessions per game. The Spurs rank 10th in pace on the season and since Wemby went down with an injury, they have increased their pace with 3 more possessions per game. Memphis is top 10 in Defensive Efficiency for the season but in their last 5 games they rank 27th out of 30 teams. San Antonio is slightly better than league average in DEFF allowing 1.148-points per possession. The Spurs attempt the 5th most 3-pointers in the league, the Grizzlies attempt the most field goals overall so we know we will get a high number of attempts by both teams. These two teams have met three times this season which resulted in 244, 252 and 237 total points being scored. With a high tempo game we like our chances of cashing this OVER ticket.

ASA play on OVER 226 Minnesota Timberwolves at Utah Jazz, 9:30 pm ET - The Wolves are coming off a game in Los Angeles last night while the Jazz were home resting and off a loss to the Kings on Wednesday. This is the same scenario earlier this season when the Wolves were off a game in Phoenix then traveled to Utah and responded with a 138-113 win. Utah is last in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency rating allowing 1.196-points per possession. They allow opponents to shoot 47.6% (26th) overall and 36% from the 3PT line which ranks 18th. That plays into the T’Wolves hands who rank 12th in Offensive Efficiency at 1.144PPP with the 5th best 3PT% and 18th overall FG%. Utah should put up 110+ points in this game against an unrested Minnesota defense that has slipped this season and is without Rudy Gobert to protect the rim. Minnesota has gone from a top 6 Defensive Efficiency rating on the season to ranking 22nd in their last 5-games. Minnesota has allowed 120+ and have played OVER in three of their last four. Utah is giving up an average of 124.1ppg in their last ten games overall, 119.4ppg in their last 5 at home. It’s also encouraging to see the Jazz have put up some big offensive numbers against some of the leagues’ better defenses in their last 10 games. Utah put up 131 against Golden State, 110 and 116 versus the Clippers, 113 and 131 against the Lakers and 124 versus the Rockets. Minnesota has gone OVER the total in 4 of their last five games when playing without rest. Utah is 5-3 OVER when playing with rest advantage. In Conference games these two teams have a combined OVER record of 50-32 this season. Utah has gone OVER the total against Western Conference teams by an average of +5.0ppg. Minnesota has gone OVER against the West by an average of +1.6ppg.

ASA Play on OVER 225 Minnesota Timberwolves at LA Lakers, 10:40 pm ET - The current average NBA total points in a game is 226.8 points and this game sets up to be more than average. With Luka in the lineup the Lakers have played at a faster rate with over 101 possessions per game. Minnesota has been forced into a smaller lineup with Gobert injured and it’s led to a faster tempo of 101.9 possessions per game which is 7th most over a 5-game span. Both teams are top 13 in the league in Offensive Efficiency averaging more than 1.144-points per possession. Minnesota has gone from a top 6 Defensive Efficiency rating on the season to ranking 18th in their last 5-games. Magically the Lakers defense has been better with Luka playing but that is a short-term bump as he is a below average defender. The Lakers have stayed UNDER the total in 4 straight games which has forced the oddsmakers hand and made them set this O/U lower than it should be. In fact, this is the second lowest O/U number on a Lakers game in their last ten games. Minnesota has played OVER in three straight games and has allowed 120 or more points in three straight games and 4 of their last six. All three meetings between these teams this year came before mid-December and all three have stayed UNDER. Last season 3 of the four clashes went OVER. We are betting value in the number and like OVER in this one.

#793/794 ASA PLAY ON Over 160.5 North Dakota vs St Thomas, Thursday at 8 PM ET - St Thomas is back home where their offense has been unstoppable. They are averaging 91 PPG at home, shooting 51% overall and 43% from deep. They are in the top 10 nationally in 3 point FG% and in Summit League play only the Tommies rank #1 in offensive efficiency, eFG%, offensive turnover rate, and they make 78% of their FT’s. Their offense should thrive in this game facing a UND defense that ranks outside the top 350 nationally (out of 364 teams) in efficiency, eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. We expect North Dakota to have success offensively here as well. They are far better offensively than they are defensively averaging 77 PPG and ranking in the top 145 in the country in offensive efficiency. In Summit League play the Fighting Hawks are averaging 80 PPG and have scored at least 70 in every game but 2. They are facing a St Thomas defense that ranks 7th in the Summit in defensive efficiency and 8th defending the arc (out of 9 teams). Both teams also like to play up tempo and in the first meeting they had 72 possessions and 168 total points with STM winning on the road 88-80. In that game St Thomas hit this conference offensive efficiency numbers dead on with 1.22 PPP while UND actually fell short of their 1.14 PPP average and only scored 1.11 PPP. They combined to make 24 three point shots in that game and we would expect similar results as these are the 2 worst teams in the conference defending the arc. We look for both teams to get to at least 80 which would put this Over the Total.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 233.5 Dallas Mavericks at LA Lakers, 10 pm ET - It’s the Luka revenge game in Los Angeles tonight! With NBA ratings at an all-time low this will certainly be a huge promotion for the league tonight as Luka Doncic takes on his former team. With that in mind, this O/U number has been inflated at the value in the numbers suggest UNDER. What I’m about to say next is going to shock you. For the season the Lakers defense ranks 13th in Defensive Net rating but since the Luka addition they have improved to 2nd best in the league. Granted, it’s only been 3-games but for whatever reason the Lakers defense has been better since the AS break and Luka is not known for his defense. Dallas is 13th for the season in Defensive Efficiency rating allowing 1.143-points per possession and have maintained that number in their most recent 5-game stretch. Five of the last six games involving the Mavericks have stayed UNDER 228 points. The last three Laker games have all finished with 223 or less points and that includes a game against Denver who has the 2nd best OEFF rating in the NBA. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace of play so this shouldn’t be a high possession game. These two teams are only slightly better than league average in terms of Offensive Efficiency, so we don’t expect either team to put up massive offensive numbers. This game sets up to be closer to the league average of 226 than the number set by the oddsmakers.

#835/836 ASA PLAY ON Under 129.5 points - Marist vs Niagara, Sunday at 2 PM ET - These 2 are each coming off rare high scoring games on Friday evening and we think they get back to their lower scoring ways on Sunday. Marist faced off vs Canisius with a total of 131 and the final score was 89-81 going way over the total. They put up 1.29 and 1.41 PPP which is WAY above their averages of 1.03 and 1.00 PPP. Niagara faced Siena on Friday with the total set at 136 and the final score was 94-60. Niagara didn’t do much offensively with 60 points on 0.90 PPP but their defense was horrendous. Siena, the 3rd most efficient offense in the league, put up 94 points on 1.40 PPP. Two very slow paced teams (both outside the top 300 in adjusted tempo) so we won’t see many possessions here. In their first meeting these 2 scored 132 total points and that was in OT with Marist winning 67-65. At the end of regulation it was 57-57 and they totaled just 65 possessions and that included OT. It wasn’t as if the offenses were terrible either as both hit their average efficiency (PPP) in that game. That total was set at 126.5 so we’re getting some solid value with this opener at 130. These 2 MAAC rivals have gone Under the total in 4 of their last 5 with their only Over being the game in OT earlier this season. Low scoring, low possession game here.

ASA play on UNDER 222 Charlotte Hornets at Portland Trailblazers, 10 pm ET - For starters, these two teams have favored the UNDER all season with a combined 46-62-2 record. In the last 15 NBA games these two teams ranked in the bottom half of the league in Offensive Net Rating. In that same time frame the Blazers are averaging 112.7ppg (22nd) while the Hornets are scoring 104.2ppg (28th). Both play at a much slower rate than league average with the Blazers ranking 18th in pace, the Hornets are 24th. Charlotte is above average in terms of Defensive Efficiency allowing 1.141-points per possession, the Blazers are below average allowing 1.163PPP, but in their last 15 games the Blazers defense rates 4th best in the league. Neither team is great shooting with the Hornets 29thh in EFG%, the Blazes are 24th. In their last ten games the Hornets and their opponents have scored more than this O/U number just three times. Charlotte’s offense has scored 104 or less points in 7 of their last ten games. Portland has held 7 of their last eight opponents not named Denver to 114 or less points. When these teams met earlier this season they combined for 199 total points. We like UNDER here.

#647/648 ASA PLAY ON Under 137.5 Points – Stony Brook vs North Carolina A&T, Saturday at 2 PM ET - We were on the NC A&T Under on Thursday night vs Campbell and cashed easily with a final score of 53-50 in favor of A&T. As we mentioned on Thursday, NC A&T has lost a number of key players this season for various reasons and as of now they are down to a rotation of only 6 players. They’ve only played 6 players in each of their last 4 games and because of that they’ve gone from an up tempo team to a slow paced team as that’s the only way they can compete with their roster shortage. For the season A&T ranks 56th nationally in adjusted tempo yet over their last 5 games their possession numbers have dropped off a cliff. Over their last 5 games their possessions were 66, 63, 62, 66, and 64. Not one of those games reached 130 total points. That’s from a team that averages just over 72 possessions per game on the season so you can see the change in philosophy. They are not only shortening games but this team is just outright poor offensively ranking outside the top 320 nationally in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and 3 point FG%. Stony Brook’s offense isn’t much better ranking 266th in efficiency, 336th in FG%, and 342nd in scoring at just 66 PPG. On top of that, the Seawolves are very slow paced (314th in adjusted tempo) so the possessions in this game will be very limited. When these 2 met in January it was a high scoring game with Stony Brook winning 89-74. That was vs a completely different A&T team that was playing fast paced at the time and was very poor defensively. The Aggies have turned the corner on the defensive end holding 5 straight opponents to under their season PPP average and none of those opponents topped 1.06 PPP. Both teams averaged well above their season offensive efficiency average in that game but we expect them to come back to their averages and if that happens, this stays way Under. The oddsmakers still haven’t caught up to A&T’s drastic change and we’ll take advantage with another Under on Saturday.

ASA play on OVER 236.5 New Orleans at Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 pm ET - These two teams met on Jan 29th and produced 273 total points. Both teams had 96 field goal attempts in the game and each hit over 53% from the field. They also were dialed in from Deep with the Mavs hitting 20/43 3-pointers, the Pelicans made 15/31. In the last seven meetings between these two teams, one of the two teams has scored 119 or more points. In that same 7-game stretch these two have combined for 235 or more points five times. A big reason why these two teams have played in higher scoring games of late is their lack of defense. In the last 10 games the Mavericks have the 29th rated Defense in terms of Net rating at 120.7. The Pelicans are last in the NBA at 123. The Pelicans are 12th in pace of play this season, the Mavericks are 15th. We expect plenty of points in this one and like OVER.

#775/776 ASA PLAY ON Under 138 Points – Campbell vs North Carolina A&T, Thursday at 7 PM ET - NC A&T has lost a number of key players this season for various reasons and as of now they are down to a rotation of only 6 players. They’ve only played 6 players in each of their last 4 games and because of that they’ve gone from an up tempo team to a slow paced team as that’s the only way they can compete with their roster shortage. For the season A&T ranks 48th nationally in adjusted tempo yet over their last 4 games their possession numbers have dropped off a cliff. Over their last 4 games their possessions were 66, 63, 62 (vs Campbell tonight’s opponent), and 66 and not of those games reached 130 total points. That’s from a team that averages just over 72 possessions per game on the season so you can see the change in philosophy. They are not only shortening games but this team is just outright poor offensively ranking outside the top 320 nationally in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and 3 point FG%. They are facing a Campbell defense that ranks #1 in the CAA in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed so we don’t expect much success offensively for the Aggies. When these 2 met less than 2 weeks ago they totaled 128 points (66-62 Campbell win) on just 62 possessions. They combined to shoot almost 48% and both hit well above their season average FG% in that game yet still didn’t reach 130 total points. We look for a similar outcome tonight which leads to another Under.

#306533/306534 ASA PLAY ON Under 143.5 Points – Texas Southern vs Southern, Monday at 9 PM ET - The 2 top defensive efficiency teams in the SWAC face off tonight in Baton Rouge. They are also #1 and #2 in the conference in eFG% allowed while giving up just 65 PPG (Southern) and 66 PPG (Texas Southern). In league play Texas Southern’s defense allows opponents to shoot just 38% (best in the SWAC) while Southern is allowing just 40% from the field (2nd best). We could also see a number of wasted possessions in this game as both teams rank in the top 100 nationally at creating turnovers while both offenses rank outside the top 240 in turnover rate. These 2 met back in January and totaled just 125 total points with Southern winning 68-57. That’s been a common theme in this rivalry with the total points scored in their last 7 meetings looking like this (starting with most recent)…125, 124, 119, 147, 126 (in regulation), 128, and 113. These teams do like to play up tempo but that didn’t matter in the first meeting as the defenses are absolutely the strength of both teams with the offenses ranking outside the top 300 in both efficiency and eFG%. If we look at these teams vs the top 5 defensive teams in the SWAC (defensive efficiency), they’ve faced those teams a total of 8 times combined and only one of those games has topped 143 total points. Six of those eight games didn’t even reach 130 total points. The total points scored in those 8 games vs the top 5 defensive teams in the conference was 131. We don’t see this match up reaching 140 total points so we’ll grab the Under.

#833/834 ASA PLAY ON Under 129.5 Points – Rider vs St Peters, Sunday at 2 PM ET - This game should be a slow paced, low possession affair. Both teams rank outside the top 310 in adjusted tempo and in their first meeting they only had 60 possessions. The total set on that game was 124.5 and the final score was 67-64 so we’re now getting some solid value on the Under which is set 5 points higher (at the open) compared to the first meeting. In that game they had combined for just 123 points with 25 seconds remaining in the game and they went on to score 8 points from that point on. Both teams played well above their average offensive efficiency with Rider putting up 1.12 PPP (they average 1.01 PPP on the season) while St Peters averaged 1.07 PPP in that game (they average 0.96 PPP on the season). These are 2 poor offenses going at it on Sunday. St Peters is dead last in the MAAC in efficiency, scoring, FG%, and 3 point FG%. Rider ranks 348th nationally in scoring, 317th in FG%, and 345th in 3 point FG%. Neither team gets to the FT line very often both ranking outside the top 200 in FT made per game. In their 13 MAAC games, St Peters has gotten to 70 points just one time and they’ve been held to 65 or less 9 times. Rider has been a little better scoring wise but they’ve been held below 70 points in 10 of their 14 conference games. If these teams don’t play well above their offensive efficiency as they did in the first meeting, we just don’t see this game getting into the 130’s. Under is the call.

#769/770 ASA PLAY ON Over 156.5 Points – Nebraska Omaha vs St Thomas, Saturday at 8 PM ET - This is a very similar spot to Thursday night when Omaha traveled to South Dakota State and we were on the Over in that game and it cashed easily. In this one we have 2 teams that like to play up tempo and 2 of the best offenses in the Summit. These 2 rank #1 and #2 in the conference in offensive efficiency and they both average 84 PPG in conference play. They each shoot over 41% from beyond the arc (top 2 in the conference) and when they get to the FT line they convert at 75% and 76%. St Thomas is one of the best shooting teams in the nation ranking 3rd in the country in FG% and 7th in 3 point FG%. Those numbers get better at home where they average 90 PPG. Nebraska Omaha put up 85 on Thursday vs the #1 defensive efficiency team in the conference, South Dakota State, and they have scored at least 80 points in 10 of their 12 Summit League games. These offenses should have big time success as the defenses are nothing to write home about. Both allow 77+ points in conference play and for the season these defenses each rank outside the top 260 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. In their first meeting less than a month ago, they combined to score 187 points in an up tempo game with 72 possessions. The Mavericks hit their conference average in PPP (efficiency) in that game while St Thomas played well below their PPP average. Both offenses are by far the best units on the court here and we expect each to get to 80 points minimum. Over.

#785/786 ASA PLAY ON Over 151.5 Points – Nebraska Omaha vs South Dakota State, Thursday at 8 PM ET - Two of the best offenses in the Summit League are facing off here in what should be a high scoring game. Omaha and SDSU both average 84 PPG in league play. UNO has scored at least 77 points in all 11 of their conference games and South Dakota State has reached at least 80 points in 6 of their 10 conference games. The Jackrabbits have actually topped 100 points twice in Summit League play and they’ve been an offensive juggernaut at home averaging 90 PPG. In their home games in league play, SDSU has not been held under 84 points and they’ve scored at least 90 in 4 of their 5 at home. They should have plenty of offensive success here vs an Omaha defense that ranks 318th in eFG% allowed. SDSU’s defensive numbers are decent, but they’ve allowed at least 70 points in 8 of their 10 Summit League games. Both teams shoot the 3 very well (#1 and #4 in conference play) and both like to play up tempo. In their first meeting Omaha picked up the 87-80 win for an easy Over. In that win, the Mavericks hit their conference season average in PPP (efficiency) and South Dakota State actually played below their offensive efficiency average and these 2 still nearly got to 170 total points. Four of the last five meetings between these 2 rivals have reached at least 152 points with 3 of those games topping 160. This one should be a track meet and we’ll take the Over.

ASA play on OVER 218 Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8pm ET - This line is extremely light in our opinion, and we will gladly step in with an OVER wager. The Thunder are going to get to 120+ by themselves in this game so we need the Heat to top 100. Granted, the Heat managed just 86 and 85 points in their last two games, but Herro and Jaquez missed their last game against the Celtics. Those two players were out with an illness, so I’d expect both back for this game. OKC is coming off a remarkable shooting night against the Pelicans where they made 49/95 FG’s overall and 27/55 3PT’ers in scoring 137 points. The last 11 games involving the Thunder have finished with 221+ points. 16 of their last seventeen games have finished with 220 or more points. OKC has the 6th best Offensive Net rating in the league and rank 4th in scoring at 118.2ppg for the season. In their last 11 games the Thunder are averaging 125.8ppg. Miami ranks 11th in Defensive Net rating for the season but have slipped dramatically in their last 10 games, falling to 18th. The Heat were dealing with a ton of distractions with the Jimmy Butler saga and can now move on with their current roster which now includes Andrew Wiggins. Miami is 6th in the NBA in percentage of points from beyond the arc. Even though the Thunder defend the 3PT line well we expect the Heat to make enough shots to help push this game OVER the total.

#687/688 ASA PLAY ON Over 155.5 Points - IPFW vs Youngstown St, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - The 2 fastest paced teams in the Horizon face off here in what we expect will be a high scoring game. They met back in January and totaled 171 total points on a whopping 80 possessions. Looking closely at that box score, both offenses actually played below their Horizon League averages when it comes to efficiency (PPP) and they both made only 61% of their FT’s in that game and it still was very high scoring. IPFW is the best overall offense in the conference ranking #1 in scoring (83 PPG) and #1 in eFG%. They also rarely turn the ball over (#1 in the conference) so very few wasted possessions. Youngstown is 4th in the league in scoring (76 PPG) but they’ve stepped that up a notch over the last 3 weeks or so scoring 87, 84, 79, 88, and 112 points in their last 5 games. The Penguins have topped their offensive efficiency average numbers (PPP) in each of those 5 games. That should continue tonight vs an IPFW defense that ranks 308th nationally in eFG% allowed and 234th in defensive efficiency. The last 4 meetings between these Horizon League foes have averaged 165.5 total points with each going Over the total. Let’s call for another one tonight.

ASA play on OVER 234.5 Utah Jazz at LA Lakers, 10:40 PM ET - Will we see Luka tonight for the Lakers? We expect LeBron James to be back after a “rest” or off game against the Pacers on Saturday. The Lakers offense is clicking right now with scoring outputs of 134, 128, 122, 120 and 124 in their last 5 games. In their 5-game period the Lakers have the 2nd best Offensive Net rating of 125.9 and an EFG% of 63.2%. Another important factor here is that the Lakers are playing at a faster rate in recent games with their small-ball lineups. L.A. should have no problem getting to 130 in this game against a Jazz defense that is last in the league in Net rating at 118.4. In their last 3 games the Jazz have allowed 128, 135 and 130 points against the Warriors, Suns and Clippers. Utah has given up 125+ points in 6 of their last nine games. Utah is 22nd in Offensive Net rating for the season but are on an uptick in their last 5-games ranking 16th. The Lakers did NOT improve their defense in the trade for Luka as AD was their best defender. The Lakers rank 18th in DNR at 113.8 for the season. When these two teams last met in Los Angeles they produced 242 total points and the Over has cashed in 8 of the last ten meetings between these two teams.

ASA PLAY ON Under 49 Points – Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - Both teams want to run the ball in this game which eats clock and shortens the game. We know the Eagles run it more than any other team in the NFL (#1 in carries per game) and they rank dead last in the NFL in pass attempts per game. They are averaging 228 YPG rushing in the playoffs and facing a KC defense that has been on a drastic decline late in the season stopping the run. They’ve allowed an average of 133 YPG rushing over their last 7 games despite playing only 1 team during that stretch that ended the season ranked in the top 10 in rushing. The Chiefs offense ran it 35 times last week vs Buffalo and we expect them to attack the weaker part of Philly’s D which is their run defense (although still very good). The Eagles pass D ranks #1 in the NFL and they allow very few big play with just 7.6% of WR’s targets going for more than 20 yards, by far the best in the NFL. So even when passing, this looks like a dink and dunk game for the Chiefs. The strength of both teams is on the defensive side of the ball with both ranking in the top 10 in YPP & YPG allowed while ranking in the top 5 in PPG allowed. The Eagle defense has allowed just 1 team to reach 24+ points since October 1st and the KC defense has allowed only 5 teams to top 24 points in 19 games this season. Both rank in the bottom half of the NFL in pace (seconds per play) and both are coming off very high scoring games which gives us some value on the Under here. 5 of the last 6 Super Bowls have gone Under and we don’t think this one will be a shootout. Under is the call.

ASA play on OVER 228 Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks, 2 pm ET - No Giannis for this game which is clearly going to hurt the Bucks defense. Milwaukee just played in Atlanta the other night and were Jekyll and Hyde in the two halves of the game. In the 1st half they looked unstoppable offensively with 73 total points. In the second half they couldn’t buy a bucket and managed just 37 total points. We like the tempo or pace of play in that game though as they Bucks attempted 96 field goals. Without Giannis in the lineup, who stops the ball offensively, the Bucks should play fast again today versus the 76ers. Milwaukee is the 7th best overall shooting team in the NBA at 48%, the 76ers rank 30th in FG% defense allowing 48.8%. The Bucks are also the 2nd best 3PT shooting team in the NBA at 38.7%, the Sixers rank 24th in 3PT% defense. The 76ers should have their “big 3” on the floor today with Embiid, George and Maxey. Philly is coming off a brutal loss in Detroit, trailing by as many as 34-points in that one. On the season the 76ers don’t have great offensive statistics but in their last 10 games they rank 10th in Offensive Net ratings. Defensively they rank 23rd overall in DNR. In the first two meetings between these two teams, they produced 232 and 233 total points and that was without Paul George and Joel Embiid on the floor for Philadelphia. Granted, no Giannis for Milwaukee but that just means a higher volume of 3’s for the Buck. 76ers 4-1 Over their last 5, Bucks 5-1 Over their last six at home.

#727/728 ASA PLAY ON Under 137 Points – Rhode Island vs George Mason, Saturday at 4 PM ET - URI loves to play at a fast tempo but that won’t happen here as George Mason (ranked 312th in adjusted tempo) will keep this game at a slower pace. That’s what happened in the first meeting when URI won the game 62-59 on only 65 possessions which is nearly 10 possessions less than the Rams season average. Along with that slow pace, George Mason’s defense is one of the best in the nation ranking 10th in efficiency and allowing just 61 PPG. At home the Patriots allow only 59 PPG and in A10 play they have held 6 of their 10 opponents to 60 points or less. URI’s defense is OK (9th in the A10 in efficiency) but they match up well with a GM offense that simply isn’t very good ranking 14th out of 15 in the conference in scoring. These 2 offenses rank 13th and 14th in efficiency in the 15 team A10. They don’t take many 3’s (242nd and 307th nationally in 3 point attempts per game) and when they do they only make around 32% in conference play which isn’t great. George Mason’s defense should shut down URI again in this 2nd match up and in the first game the Patriots shot 45% which is above their season average and they still only had 59 points. George Mason has had only 1 game in conference play get into the 140’s in regulation and with today’s total set in the high 130’s, we like the value on the Under.

ASA play on OVER 228.5 San Antonio Spurs at Charlotte Hornets, 7:10 pm ET - Clearly the Luka Doncic trade to the Lakers was the most significant in the NBA, but the Spurs addition of Fox was a fantastic move by San Antonio. Not only is Fox a great offensive point guard to pair with Wemby, he’s also very good defensively, and fits the Spurs perfectly. San Antonio talked about picking up their tempo with the addition of Fox and that clearly played out in his first game as the Spurs attempted 101 field goals. That was 12 more FGA’s than their season average. San Antonio shot 50% for the game against the Hawks and put up 126-points. The Spurs should put up points against this Charlotte defense that has slipped in Defensive Net rating in their last 5 games. The Hornets have a DNR of 116 in their last 5 games, up from their season number of 113.3. San Antonio is 2nd in pace of play over their last 5 games with a top 15 Offensive Net rating in that stretch of games. Charlotte was very active at the trade deadline and clearly made moves in an effort to rebuild in the future. They should get LaMelo Ball back for tonight’s game who is averaging 28ppg for the season. The Spurs defense has allowed 125 or more points in 7 of their last ten games. Both teams like to shoot a lot of 3-pointers so even if the overall FGA’s are down we still have a great chance to cash the Over based on 3-point volume. The bet here is OVER!

ASA play on OVER 223 Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers, 6 PM ET - The 76ers have found their groove in recent weeks with 5-straight covers and several impressive wins including a victory against the Cavs, Lakers and Kings. The offense has been much better with 132, 109, 118, 117 and 134 points scored in their last four games. Philadelphia has the 4th best EFG% over the last 5-games played and the 2nd best Offensive Net rating in that span of games. The Sixers defense has been the worst in the NBA over the past 10 games with a Net Rating of 121.7. Games involving this Philly team have finished with 220+ points in 7 of the last ten. Boston is going to score points today with an offense that is 3rd overall in Net Rating for the season and putting up the 5th most points per game at 117.3ppg. Boston games have finished with 223 or more points in 7 of their last eight games. Boston’s 8th best EFG% at 55.5% should find plenty of open looks against a Philly defense that is last in the NBA in opponents FG% allowed. We expect this game to get into the 230’s.

#833/834 ASA PLAY ON Over 158 Points – IPFW vs UW Milwaukee, Sunday at 3 PM ET - These 2 faced off in early January, the total was set at 155, they totaled 151 (IPFW won 78-73) yet this total is set higher despite the first game going Under. That’s because taking a closer look at the first meeting reveals that game should have go Over the total. First of all, these 2 play fast (2 of the top 3 in tempo in the Horizon) and they had 78 possessions in the first meeting. Plenty of opportunities for scoring in that game and this one should play out in a similar manner. Both teams shot well below their season averages and their offensive efficiency fell way under their season averages. They combined to barely shoot 40% (they shoot 48% and 47% on the year) and they made only 30% of their 3’s combined. UWM averages 1.11 PPP in Horizon League play and in that one they averaged 0.94 PPP. IPFW averages 1.14 PPP in conference play and put up 1.00 in that game. Despite all that, that game still got into the 150’s. We look for Sunday’s offensive numbers to get back to the norm which should push this game into the 160’s. The last 2 meetings in Milwaukee each of the last 2 seasons totaled 184 and 190. Take the Over in this one

#835/836 ASA PLAY ON Under 128 Points – West Virginia vs Cincinnati, Sunday at 2 PM ET - Two of the worst offensive teams in the Big 12 face off here and what should be a low scoring game. These are the 2 lowest scoring teams in Big 12 games with WVU averaging 60.7 PPG and Cincy putting up 61 PPG. They also rank in the bottom 3 in the league in both FG% and 3 point FG%. Neither get to the FT line very often (280th and 359th in percentage of points from the stripe) and we won’t see many 2nd chances as they are both very poor offensive rebounding teams (15th and 16th in league play). The strength of both teams is absolutely on the defensive end. They both rank inside the top 25 nationally in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. Both defend the arc well and this should be a slow paced game with WVU ranking 331st in adjusted tempo while Cincy ranks 290th. This smells like a first team to 60 wins type game. Take the Under.

#873/874 ASA PLAY ON Under 124 Points - St Peters vs Rider, Friday at 7 PM ET - Two very slow paced teams with bad offenses lead to a really low scoring game in this one. Both rank outside the top 300 in adjusted tempo and in straight possessions per game Rider ranks 327th and St Peters 353rd. Offensively they rank outside the top 300 in offensive efficiency, FG%, and scoring (347th and 348th in scoring). In conference play only, St Peters is averaging a horrendous 0.88 PPP and Rider puts up a poor 1.03 PPP. They are the 2 worst teams in MAAC play in 3 point FG% and 3 pointers made per game. St Peters is averaging just 56 PPG in league play (dead last) and while Rider is a bit better at 68 PPG (still not very good) they are facing one of the MAAC’s top defenses tonight with the Peacocks allowing only 60 PPG. In their 3 games thus far vs top 4 conference defenses, Rider was held under 1.00 PPP twice. St Peters has failed to reach 120 total points in 4 of their last 6 games with an average total points scored of 110 in those 6 contests. Two flat out poor offenses in a game that might not get to 60 possessions lands us on the Under.

#809/810 ASA PLAY ON Over 148.5 Points – Cleveland State vs IPFW, Thursday at 9 PM ET - The 2 most efficient offenses in the Horizon League are facing off here in what we expect to be a high scoring game. IPFW ranks #1 in most of the key offensive stats in league play including scoring, FG%, 3 point FG%, and offensive efficiency. CSU ranks in the top 3 in all of those categories. IPFW is a poor defensive team ranking outside the top 270 nationally defensive efficiency and PPG allowed. Cleveland State has much better numbers on the defensive end, however they’ve faced the weakest schedule thus far in Horizon League play and only 3 of their 11 conference opponents currently rank in the top 5 in scoring. So their defensive numbers are a bit misleading in our opinion. IPFW has played 11 league games and 9 of those have reached at least 150 total points. Their games in Horizon League play average 162 total points. They are also one of the fastest paced teams in the country and #1 in adjusted tempo in the conference. In CSU’s other games vs higher tempo teams in the Horizon (Youngstown State, Robert Morris, and Milwaukee) they totaled 152, 149, and 146 total points and none of those teams are as good offensive as IPFW. The Matadors rank 59th nationally in offensive efficiency and those teams mentioned above rank 143rd or lower with 2 ranking outside the top 200 in offensive efficiency. This one goes Over the Total.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 239 Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 PM ET - The Atlanta Hawks have really struggled offensively in recent games and will have a tough time scoring tonight against this Cavs defense that is 8th in Defensive Efficiency this season allowing 1.121PPP. In their most recent 5-games the Hawks have the worst Offensive Net rating in the NBA at 95.8. Atlanta has scored less than 97 points in 3 straight games and have failed to top 110 in 6 of their last eight games. What the Hawks have done well in their last five games is play defense. Atlanta has the 2nd best Defensive Net rating in the league in that stretch of games at 97.0. Cleveland is clearly one of the top offensive teams in the NBA this season, ranking 1st in Offensive Efficiency at 1.218PPP. The Cavs are coming off a game in Miami last night and have several rotational players out for this game which will magnify the fatigue factor. The Under is 4-2 in this series dating back to the start of last season with only 2 of those games finished with more points than tonight’s number. We like UNDER in this one.

ASAwins play on OVER 228 Sacramento Kings vs Philadelphia 76ers – 7:40 pm ET - Sacramento is averaging 120.7ppg in their last ten games, 121.3ppg in their last fifteen. The Kings have played at the 5th fastest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games with the 6th most efficient offense over that span of games. The Kings have scored 120 plus in 9 of their last twelve games and should have a problem getting to that number against a 76ers defense that is 29th in Defensive Net rating in their last 15 games. The Kings only managed 110 points against the Net last game out after getting off to a very slow start in the first two quarters. Sacramento played much slower than normal with 82 field goal attempts, 9.1 less than their season average of 91.1 FGA’s per game. Sacramento is the 9th best shooting team in the NBA at 47.6% and should get plenty of wide-open looks against a Sixers D that ranks 29th in FG% defense. Philadelphia is coming off a game last night against the Lakers with Maxey scoring 43 in their 118-104 win. The Sixers are 5-2 Over when playing without rest and 11-4-2 Over in non-Conference games this season. The Kings are in the bottom half of the league in Defensive Efficiency rating for the season allowing 1.142-points per possession so Philly should do some damage on that end of the court too. We like OVER in this one.

#691/692 ASA PLAY ON Under 123.5 Points – Houston vs West Virginia, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These 2 met a few weeks ago and Houston won the game 74-50 totaling 124 points. In that game the Cougars put up 1.30 PPP which is well above their 1.22 PP average on the season and ranks as their 2nd best offensive effort (efficiency) in Big 12 play. They also shot 42% from deep in that game facing a WVU defense that ranks 19th in defensive efficiency. It will be very tough for Houston to duplicate that offensive effort. On the other side, the Mountaineers also shot over 40% from beyond the arc (they average 33%) and averaged 1.00 PPP vs a Houston defense that allowed 0.87 PPP on the season. While 1.00 PPP may not sound all that impressive, WVU has played 3 games since facing the Cougars and haven’t reached that mark in any of them (vs ISU, KSU, and ASU). We highly doubt they hit that number tonight. Both defenses rank in the top 20 nationally in efficiency with Houston ranking #2. Both teams are very slow paced ranking 324th and 360th in adjusted tempo and there were only 54 possessions in the first meeting. There were only total FT attempts in the first meeting and we look for a similar situation here as neither team gets to the line very often (both outside the top 315 in percentage of points from the FT line). If you combine their over/under records this season, they are 23-14-1 to the Under. This one stays very low scoring.

ASA play on OVER 217.5 LA Lakers at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:30pm ET - This number has been set too low, and the value lies with the Over in this one. These defenses have been near the bottom of the league over the course of the last 15 games with the Lakers ranking 23rd in Defensive Net Rating, the 76ers are 29th. On the other end of the court, the Lakers are 10th in Offensive Net Rating over that same 15 game span, the Sixers are 15th. Those numbers suggest that this game will be slightly higher than the league average of 226 total points scored per game. The Lakers are 8th in FG% and should get plenty of open looks against a Philly defense that is 29th in FG% defense. Philadelphia doesn’t have great overall offensive numbers, but we see a trend with them at home where they have a much easier time scoring. The 76ers have put up 132, 119, 102 (OKC best D in NBA), 115 and 109 in their last 5 at home. Granted, there will be some marquee names missing from this game but the oddsmakers have set a number that is off by at least 6-points.

ASA NBA play on OVER 235.5 Milwaukee Bucks at Utah Jazz, 9pm ET - The Jazz are one of, if not the worst defense in the league. Utah allows 1.191-points per possession, only the Wizards allow more. The Jazz rank 26th in opponents FG%, 27th in total points allowed per game and 14.3 made 3-pointers per game (27th). Utah has allowed 123+ points in four straight, 111 or more in 7 in a row. The Bucks are going to score 125 or more in this game with an offense that is 11th in OEFF at 1.147PPP, ranks 6th in FG% and 2nd in 3PT%. Milwaukee makes the 6th most 3-pointers in the NBA at 14.3 per game. The Bucks have scored 117 or more points in 6 straight games and 122+ in five of those six. Utah is 20th in Offensive Efficiency at 1.119PPP and average 111.3ppg with 13.8 made 3-pointers per game (11th). We need Utah to get to the 112 range for this Over to hit and we expect them to get there as they’ve scored that in 5 of their last six games. Milwaukee is 10th in pace of play, the Jazz are 14th so we should get plenty of possessions to push this Over the number.

ASA play on OVER 232 New Orleans Pelicans at Toronto Raptors, 7:40PM ET - These two teams are playing well right now, much better than their overall records of 12-34 (Pelicans) and 13-32 (Raptors). New Orleans has won 4 of their last six games, while the Raptors have hit 5 of their last six games. You won’t find either of these teams in the upper echelon of the NBA in terms of Offensive Efficiency for the season, but you will find they have been much better in that regard recently. New Orleans is 14th in OEFF in their last five games, the Raptors are 18th. Both of these teams are averaging better than 1.141-points per possession in that five-game span. The other big factor in this Over wager is the pace of play by each team. The Raptors are 9th in pace on the season and are played at a faster tempo in their most recent five games. The Pelicans are 15th in pace for the year, but currently the 4th fastest paced in the league over the last five games. A big reason for both teams resurgence is their overall team health as both have gotten key players back from injury. Games involving the Pelicans have gone over this number in 7 of the last eight games. Toronto is 13-10 to the Over at home this season with those games averaging 228 total points. With two of the worst defenses in the NBA squaring off we expect a ton of points in this one.

ASA play on OVER 242 New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies, 8 pm ET - This is an extremely high number, but we do expect both teams to get into the mid-120’s and push this game Over the total. These two teams met in late December and combined for 256 total points so we know they can get there. New Orleans is getting some players back and it’s starting to show in their results as they’ve won 4 in a row and 5 of six. They have scored 119 or more points in 6 straight games. A closer look at those last six games we find the Pelicans are playing fast with the 6th highest possession rate in the league. They have been more efficient also with the 6th best offensive rating. Memphis has been playing equally as well with 4 straight wins and 5 of six. The Grizzlies put up points on everyone. Memphis has scored 118 or more in 5 of the last six games and is currently the highest scoring team in the NBA at 123.3ppg. On the season the Grizz are 5th in FG%, 2nd in FG attempts and 8th in 3PT%. Memphis is 5th in offensive rating and EFG% and play at the fastest rate in the NBA at 104.91 possessions per game. With both teams willing to play fast, unless both shoot horribly this game should go over rather easily.

ASA play on UNDER 230.5 Indiana Pacers vs. San Antonio Spurs 2 pm ET (Played in Paris France) - This is a specialty gimmick game by the NBA to broaden its reach in Europe and is being played in Paris, France. So essentially a home game for Victor Wembanyama of the Spurs. This is an interesting situation for both teams with the extended travel and we don’t feel it’s going to help with their offensive efficiency. We ran the season statistics through our math model and it projected 226.3 total points being scored. When we run the numbers in the last five games for each team it settles in at 225.4 total points. The Spurs recently played a 2-game set with the Grizzlies (4th fastest) and had a game against the Bucks who rank 8th in pace of play. Even with those games factored into the equation we still come up with a lower number than the oddsmakers. The Pacers were the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA a year ago at 101.7 possessions per game, this season they are 10th at 99.4. The Spurs are 18th in pace this season and offensive efficiency rating while scoring just 111.6ppg. Indiana is top 10 in offensive efficiency and scoring 115.2ppg. In this environment we don't see these two teams combining for more than 225 total points.

ASA play on OVER 230 Philadelphia 76ers at Denver Nuggets, 10 pm et - We have a solid recent comparable game for the 76ers in this situation as they just played in Milwaukee on Sunday with the game going Over 226.5 in that game. That game played out as projections suggested in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency and pace of play. Tonight, the 76ers face a Nuggets team that is better offensively than the Bucks, plays faster and is worse defensively and the O/U is only 3-points higher. The Nuggets are average in terms of Defensive Efficiency ranking 14th at 1.138-points per possession allowed. The 76ers are 20th giving up 1.146PPP. Philadelphia is the slowest paced team in the league but the Nuggets will force them to play faster with their 5th fastest pace in the NBA. The 76ers have allowed 115 or more points in 5 of their last six games with the Over cashing in four of those six. Denver has scored 118+ in 5 of their last nine games and the four that they didn’t reach that number came against defenses ranked 12th or better, which is not the case with Philadelphia. The Sixers have injury concerns tonight with Embiid out and several starters including Paul George questionable but we still like them to get to 110+ in this game. Denver averages 120ppg at home so we expect them to get to that number here too. When these two teams have played out of Conference this season, they have a combined 22-6-2 OVER record.

ASA play on UNDER 227.5 Chicago Bulls at LA Clippers, 10:30 PM ET - This is a fill in game and both teams are in a tough scheduling situation having played last night. The Clippers beat their intown rivals the Lakers 116-102, the Bulls lost in Portland 102-113. Chicago has seen inflated O/U numbers in recent weeks which has given value to the Under bettors out there paying attention. The Bulls have stayed Under in 6 of their last eight games now and have played at a slower pace, been better defensively and worse offensively. Most important is the Bulls pace of play which has dipped, and their defensive efficiency has gone from 1.163PPP to 1.144PPP. The Clippers hired Jeff VanGundy in the offseason and their defense has steadily improved throughout the season. LA currently allows 1.081PPP which is second in the NBA only behind OKC. It’s a good thing their defense has been that good because they rank 22nd in offensive efficiency. The Clippers have stayed Under their total in 6 of their last nine games and only two of their last ten games have finished with more than 227 total points. The last time these two teams met on this floor they produced 214 total points. We expect another game in that range today.

ASA play on OVER 219.5 San Antonio at Miami Heat, 3:10 PM ET - The total on this game opened 222, was bet down below 220, but is not trending back up. The betting indicators are telling us this line could go higher yet so we recommend a wager sooner than later. In breaking down the Offensive and Defensive efficiencies for both teams along with pace of play we find the numbers suggest an ‘average’ game in the NBA. The average total points scored in an NBA game this season is 226 total points. Miami is dealing with the Jimmy Butler distraction, and it showed defensively in their last game when they allowed 133 points to Denver. San Antonio is coming off a two-game set against the Grizzlies where they allowed 129 and 140 points. The last seven games involving the Spurs has finished with more total points than this number. Miami has been known for their defense for years under coach Spoelstra but this season they are hovering just above league average in most key categories. They are 12th in opponents FG% and 15th in 3PT% allowed. The Spurs are 11th in opponents FG%, 9th in 3PT% allowed but give up the 14th most points per game at 112.7ppg.

#3/4 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 6 Goals - Columbus Blue Jackets vs San Jose Sharks, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Very interesting match-up here as San Jose is having a rough season yet they just won 6-3 at Detroit to snap the Red Wings 7-game winning streak. Ironically the Sharks now have a chance in their very next game to stop the current longest winning streak in the NHL as well and that is the 5-game run that the Blue Jackets are on. While we do expect the confidence to be up for the Sharks after that 6-goal outburst and we look for continued offensive success here, we also expect the Blue Jackets to stay hot. Columbus has scored an average of 4 goals in their current 6-1 run last 7 games. The Blue Jackets, as hot as they have been, have allowed 3 goals per game in their last 4 on home ice and they enter this game in a unique situation. Columbus is off B2B unders that each totaled 5 or less goals. Keep in mind, the season is already halfway over and the Blue Jackets have NEVER had a 3-game stretch this season without at least 1 game totaling 7 goals or more. In fact, Columbus home games have averaged 7.4 goals this season! We get value here because the Sharks trend toward lower-scoring games but this is a unique spot with San Jose off a 6-3 win and a chance to again snap the winning streak of the current hottest team in the NHL. San Jose goalie Georgiev has a 3.44 GAA this season and Columbus goalie Merzlikins has allowed 3.5 goals per start in his last 10 starts. Both of these clubs have had problems on the penalty kill this season too and the Blue Jackets power play has been solid. The goals fly here! Given numbers like the above it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is showing the highest probability here for a range of 7 to 8 goals with 4-3 or 5-3 the most highly probable outcomes as each club is likely to reach the 3-goal mark here. Look for at least 7 goals in this one! Over is the play Thursday in Columbus

#381/382 ASA PLAY ON Under 45.5 Points – Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET - A number of key things in play here which favor the Under in our opinion. First of all, both teams love to run the ball which eats clock. The Eagles run the ball on 56% of their offensive snaps (#1 in the NFL) and Green Bay runs on almost 52% of their snaps (#3 in the NFL). Both defenses are in the top 10 in YPC allowed and in the top 5 in YPP allowed. Since their bye week (in week 5) the Eagles have been easily the best defense in the NFL. During that stretch Philly has allowed only 4.3 YPP and 1.4 points per drive which is the best in the NFL. They’ve also held teams without a first down on 45% of their drives during that stretch which is by far the best in the league. Green Bay’s defense has been really good as well. During that same stretch (since week 5), the Packers have allowed teams to average 1.7 points per drive (#2 in the NFL) and 5.1 YPP (#3 in the NFL). Both teams are very slow paced with Philly ranking 23rd in seconds per play and Green Bay ranking 30th. Offensively, the Packers lost WR Watson last week and he is their big play, deep threat which should limit big plays. QB Love isn’t 100% with a arm injury but will play. His back up Willis injured his hand last week so GB has some issues at QB and we would be at all surprised if they try and run the ball more than usual. Philly QB Hurts hasn’t played in 3 weeks, could be rusty, and they may want to protect him a bit coming off a concussion. Nice situation for a slower paced, lower scoring game and we’ll jump on the Under.

#379/380 ASA PLAY ON Over 47.5 Points – Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Both of these teams rank in the top 10 in scoring with Buffalo sitting at #2 (31 PPG) and Denver at #10 (25 PPG). The Bills offense has been even more potent at home where they average 34.3 PPG which is the 2nd best home mark in the NFL only behind Detroit. The Bills have scored 30+ points in 7 of their 8 home games. They’ll be facing a Denver defense that has very solid overall numbers (#7 in total defense) but the Broncos allowed 30+ points in 3 of their last 5 games vs Bengals, Browns, and Chargers. They also gave up 41 points when they faced Baltimore, a high level offense similar to Buffalo. The Bills defense is definitely the weak spot of this team ranking 22nd in YPP allowed and outside the top 20 in most key pass defense metrics. They will be facing a Denver offense really played well in the 2nd half of the season under rookie QB Nix who played outstanding with almost 3,400 yards passing (12th in the NFL) and 29 TDs (6th in the NFL). The Broncos have scored at least 24 points in 7 straight games and we’d anticipate the get into the 20’s again here. Buffalo has pushed into the 30’s in each of their last 3 Wildcard games and we think they do that again here. The weather doesn’t look bad for this time of year in Buffalo with game time temps around 32 degrees and winds around 10 MPH. Not terrible by any means for 2 teams that are used to playing in colder weather. Over is the call in this one.

#839/840 ASA PLAY ON Under 138.5 Points – Michigan State vs Northwestern, Sunday at 12 PM ET - Both of these teams have highly efficient defenses with MSU ranking 10th nationally in defensive efficiency allowing 0.92 PPP and Northwestern ranks 27th giving up 0.96 PPP. Both allow just 66 PPG on the season and NW is far better defensively at home allowing 61 PPG compared to 72 PPG on the road. The Cats have played 1 Big 10 home game this season vs the highly efficient Illinois offense (27th in offensive efficiency) and that game was tied 56-56 at the end of regulation, went to OT and they still only got to 137 total points. Illinois has very similar efficiency numbers, offense & defense, to Michigan State today’s opponents. The Spartans defense has allowed 62 points or fewer in 3 of their 4 Big 10 games this season. NW is a very slow paced team and we expect them to control the tempo at home on Sunday. They do not want to get into a shootout with Michigan State. Offensively, neither team shoots many 3’s (both outside the top 320 in percentage of points scored from deep) and neither is great at hitting them when they do shoot them (MSU 339th in 3 point FG% & NW 215th). This game will mainly be played inside the arc which always helps the Under. Lastly, both are very good defensive rebounding teams which should limit extra opportunities for each. Only 3 of the last 13 meetings between these 2 Big 10 rivals have topped 140 total points and with the current total (as of Saturday) sitting in the high 130’s, we like the Under.

#377/378 ASA PLAY ON Over 43.5 Points – Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens, Saturday at 8 PM ET - This total opened 46 and has dropped to a current number of 43.5 as of Friday afternoon. We’re now getting some solid value on the Over in this game and we’ll grab it. These 2 rivals met twice this year and the totals in those games were set at 48.5 and 44 so we’re now getting the lowest total of the season in this series. In the first game the final score was 18-16 in favor of Pittsburgh but the Steelers kicked 6 FG’s (0 TD’s) and they pushed inside the Baltimore 15 yard line on 3 of those drives. The Ravens put up 6.1 YPP and missed 2 FG’s. They were inside the Pittsburgh 35 yard line 5 times in that game and came away with only 16 points. That game could have and should have been much higher scoring. In the 2nd meeting, the Ravens again put up really solid YPP numbers (6.7 YPP) and scored 34 points. The Pittsburgh offense put up decent numbers averaging 5.2 YPP but only scored 17 points in the game. They were shut out on downs inside Baltimore territory and fumbled at the Ravens 4 yard line so again, the opportunity for more points was there and they still reached 51 total points. Baltimore is 3rd in the NFL averaging 30.5 PPG and at home that jumps to 31.5 PPG. Pittsburgh has been a higher scoring team away from home at 23.1 PPG compared to at home where they average 21.5 PPG. The Steelers also average 5.1 YPP on the road which is higher than their home numbers. The Ravens put up an impressive 6.7 YPP at home which is by far the best mark in the NFL. Baltimore has scored at least 30 points in 6 of their 8 home games (including 34 vs Pittsburgh) and if they get to that number, we would need much for Pittsburgh for this to go over. The Steelers have struggled offensively over the last few games but we anticipate they throw caution to the wind here and open up the offense. They know they need to score some points to have a chance in this one because shutting down Baltimore’s offense is a tall task. The weather looks decent with temps in the mid 30’s at game time and 10 MPH winds (no precipitation). This total is too low and we like the Over.

ASA NBA PLAY UNDER 221 Portland Trailblazers at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - The Mavs will be without Luka and Kyrie again tonight which greatly diminishes their scoring numbers. For the entire season the Mavs have the 6th best offensive net rating in the NBA at 115.6. In their last 7 games without Luka Doncic, they fall to 24th in ONR and now they don’t have Kyrie Irving and his 24ppg to rely on. Dallas did score 118 last time out against the Lakers but the Mavs shot well above season standards, making 45 of 86 field goal attempts or 52%. They also hit 18/38 3PT’s or 47%. Portland is coming off a game in New Orleans last night, a 119-100 win. The Blazers also had an extremely hot shooting night of 55% overall and 36% from Deep. Those numbers were much higher than their season averages of 45.1% and 33.7%. Don’t expect those statistics again tonight against a Mavs team that holds opponents to the 9th lowest FG% in the NBA. The Blazers defense is bottom 10 in terms of defensive net rating for the season, but in their last four games they’ve been much better, ranking 10th. With Luka in the lineup the Mavs are one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA for the season. Without him on the floor they are average in tempo. The Blazers prefer to play slower overall for the season and have slowed even more in their last five games. These two teams met on Dec 28th and the O/U number was 225. They combined to score 248. Why have the oddsmakers established a much lower number for this game after that game was so high scoring? That has us on Under here.

ASA NBA play on OVER 235.5 Atlanta Hawks at Utah Jazz, 9 PM ET - The Jazz are coming off a 3-game road trip on the East coast with a pair of wins over the Heat and Magic in the most recent games. Atlanta is on a 3-game slide on a West coast trip with the losses coming at Denver, Lakers and Clippers. In two of those games the Hawks defense allowed 131 and 139 points. They have given up 128 or more points in 5 of their last nine games. While we are on the subject of defense, or lack of, the Jazz have the worst defense in the NBA in terms of Efficiency rating as they allow 1.204-points per possession. Atlanta allows 1.146PPP which ranks 17th. We should get a very fast paced game here with a Hawks team that is 3rd in the league in possession per game, the Jazz are 14th. Both defenses are 20th or worse in FG%, 3PT% and FG attempts. Combined these two teams have favored the Over with a 42-17-1 Over record this season. This number is significantly lower than our model projects. Bet Over.

#351/351 ASA PLAY ON OVER 48 Points - Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Falcons offense has produced points the last two weeks with rookie QB Penix under center. Atlanta is averaging 29ppg in his starts, 5.4 Yards Per Play and over 330 total yards per game. Penix and the Falcons offense should have success against a Panthers defense that can’t stop the run and doesn’t pressure opposing QB’s. Carolina is 32nd or last in the NFL in total yards allowed per game and 29th in Yards Per Play allowed. They give up 5.1 yards per rush and 177 rushing yards per game. Atlanta is 12th in YPP offense averaging 5.9 on the season with the running game producing 125 rushing yards per game, 12th most in the NFL. Atlanta is going to put up points against this Panthers defense that allows the most points per game at 31ppg. To cash this Over we are going to need Carolina to score too, and we think they will. The Panthers offense has improved as the season progressed with QB Young looking much better in recent starts. Carolina is averaging 5.1YPP over their last three games and has scored 20+ points in 5 of their last eight games. The Falcons defense is giving up 23.7ppg on the season, 20th most in the league. With both teams ranking in the top 10 in pace of play we expect plenty of possessions and scoring opportunities for each team. In the most recent meeting between these two teams, they combined for 58 total points which is what we project for today.

#271/272 ASA PLAY ON Over 55.5 Points – Ohio State vs Oregon, Wednesday at 5 PM ET – ROSE BOWL @ Pasadena, CA - When these 2 met in September, the total was set at 54.5 and they combined for 63 points (32-31 Oregon). Today’s total is set a bit higher and we think they get into the 60’s again. In the first meeting the 2 combined for almost 1,000 yards and averaged over 7.0 YPP. There could have been more than 63 scored in that game as Oregon missed a FG, got shut out on downs inside the OSU 5 yard line, and OSU ended the game on the Oregon 26 yard line as time expired. The Ducks offenses ranks in the top 15 nationally in YPG, YPP, and scoring at 36 PPG. It was the one offense that Ohio State struggled big time with this season. In their last 11 games, the Ducks scored at least 30 points 10 times including vs OSU and Penn State’s vaunted stop unit. In that game (the Big 10 Championship Game) Oregon scored 45 points 470 yards. Their defense, however, allowed 37 points and Penn State’s offense had over 500 yards. The Oregon defense had solid overall numbers (20th in YPP allowed) but vs the 3 CFP offenses they faced (OSU, PSU, and Boise State), they allowed an average of 34 PPG. The Buckeyes scored 42 points on nearly 500 yards last week vs a high level Tennessee defense that ranked in the top 10 nationally. The Bucks scored at least 30 points in 10 of their 13 games this season. We think Oregon will struggle to slow the Buckeyes down and same with the OSU defense having trouble with OU’s offense. We see both getting into the 30’s again and this goes Over the Total.

ASA NBA play on UNDER 236 Memphis Grizzlies at Phoenix Suns, 9 PM ET - Memphis wants to play fast and is the highest possession team in the NBA. Phoenix on the other hand prefers to play slow, ranking 26th in pace of play. The current problem for the Grizzlies is they have 9 players on their injured list, including Ja Morant, Zach Edey and Santi Aldama, three of their top six scorers. The lack of depth showed in the Grizzlies last game against the Thunder as they managed just 106 points on 38% shooting. The Suns have had their own scoring issues of late with four straight games of 110 or less points. The lack of scoring has led to 4 straight Unders for the Suns and 6 of the last seven. Not to mention, the Suns will have a tough time here against a Memphis defense that allows the 4th fewest points per possession in the NBA. In three meetings last season these two teams produced 236, 225 and 199 total points. We like a slower paced and lower scoring game here.

#431/432 ASA PLAY ON Under 50.5 Points – Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The San Francisco offense has fallen off a cliff over the last month and a half. They have scored more than 17 points just once in their last 6 games. We don’t see those offensive struggles changing here vs a Detroit defense that is getting healthy. The Lions were decimated with defensive injuries the last month or so but many of those players are now back. Prior to their injury problems, Detroit had allowed more than 23 points only twice in their first 12 games. Then they were lit up by 2 of the best offensive teams in the NFL (Green Bay & Buffalo) which was right in the midst of their injury issues. They are #1 in the NFL allowing opponents just a 31% conversion rate and they are #4 in yards per point defense (17 yards per point). No reason to think the SF offense, which has averaged just 16 PPG since mid November, won’t continue to have problems. The strength of this 49er team is definitely their defense ranking in the top 5 in the NFL in YPG allowed, YPP allowed, and passing YPG allowed. They’ve allowed just 4.7 YPP over their last 3 games which is 3rd best in the NFL during that span and only 5 of their 15 opponents have topped 24 points. The Niners do not want to get into a shootout here so we expect them to take their sweet time on offense to keep Detroit’s offense off the field. They are already the slowest paced team in the NFL running just 1 play every 31 seconds. Detroit is in the bottom half of the NFL in seconds per play as well so possessions could be limited here. We think this one stays in the 40’s so we’ll grab the Under on Monday night.

ASA NBA play on OVER 231.5 Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder, 7 PM ET - An average NBA game finishes with 225.8 total points per game. The oddsmakers are suggesting this game will only be essentially +6-points more than average. We feel it’s going to be much higher than that for a few specific reasons, mainly because of the pace of play. Memphis is the fastest paced team in the league at 105.2 possessions per game. The Thunder at 8th in pace at 99.7 possessions per game. The Grizzlies average the 3rd most fastbreak points per game, the Thunder rank 9th. Memphis is the highest scoring team in the NBA in terms of points in the paint, the Thunder are 12th. The Grizz are the 5th most efficient offense, the Thunder are 8th. Granted, both are exceptional defensively, but pace and great shooting will counter the great defenses. These two teams attempt the 10th and 12th most 3-pointers per game and rank 2nd and 3rd in FG attempts. Based on comparable opponents, the betting markets and tempo we expect a higher scoring game Sunday. *Yes, we know Ja Morant is not playing tonight.*

ASA NBA play on UNDER 219.5 Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors, 8:30 PM ET - Both teams are coming off a game last night and playing their 4th game in 6 days so fatigue is going to be a factor. Golden State has turned into a solid Under team with 14 of their last eighteen games staying below the number. Looking at their most recent 15 games we find they are the 27th lowest scoring team in the NBA over that stretch averaging just 105.1ppg. Phoenix has now stayed Under in 5 of their last six games and scored 90 or less in two of those games. Over each teams last five games the Suns have played at the 3rd slowest tempo in the league, the Warriors 14th slowest. These same two teams met on November 30th and combined to score 218 total points. With how the betting markets are reacting to this O/U it’s obvious that sharp money is on the Under. We agree.

ASA NFL play on OVER 50 Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals, 4:30 PM ET - Buffalo Bills QB Allen is the odds-on favorite to win MVP this season, but Bengals QB Joe Burrow has had an insane stretch of games to close the gap with Allen and Lamar Jackson. Burrow has thrown 3 or more TD passes in seven straight games and propelled the Bengals offense to an average of 32.5ppg in that seven-game stretch. The Bengals and their opponent have totaled 51 or more points in five of those games. Even after a slow start to the season the Bengals are 10th in Total Yards Per Game, 7th in Yards Per Play at 6.1, 1st in Passing YPG at 267 and 6th in scoring at 28.2ppg. Cincinnati has to put up points because their defense can’t stop anyone. The Bengals are 28th in Total Yards Per Game allowed at 360, 20th in Yards Per Play allowed, 21st against the run and 26th versus the pass. They also allow 26.2PPG, 28th most in the NFL. Five of Cincinnati’s last six home games have finished with 54+ points. Denver is going to score in this game too. The Browns have scored 27 or more points in five straight games and rank 10th in scoring at 24.2ppg. The Broncos have the 10th best points per play average in the league despite being a bottom 10 team in terms of Yards Per Play. Denver is 5-3 to the Over in road games this year with 3 of the last four cashing. The Bengals game plan is simple, outscore your opponent. Denver will be forced to keep up and should have success against this Bengals D.

#247/248 ASA PLAY ON Over 57 Points – Iowa State vs Miami FL, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET – POP TARTS BOWL in Orlando, FL - Most of the key offensive players on both sides here are playing in this game. Miami QB Ward has stated he’s playing and he will have his full complement of weapons with the possible exception of WR Restrepo who may or may not play. Iowa State’s offense looks to be in the same situation with most if not all of the key contributors playing. That should bode well for scoring in this game as both offenses know how to put points on the board. The Canes lead the nation in total offense, YPP offense, and scoring putting up just over 44 PPG. Iowa State is no slouch averaging just over 30 PPG on the season. Miami’s overall defensive numbers are solid, however 6 of their 8 ACC opponents scored at least 28 points. The only 2 teams in conference play that struggled offensively vs the Canes were Florida State, who ranks 132nd in total offense, and Wake Forest, who ranks 86th in total offense. We expect ISU’s offense to come out with some passion after playing one of the worst games of the season in the Big 12 Championship losing 45-19 vs Arizona State. Prior to scoring just 19 points in that game, the Cyclones had scored at least 28 points in 7 of their previous 8 games. The ISU defense wasn’t great this year ranking 68th in YPP allowed and 102nd at stopping the run. They allowed at least 21 points in 6 of their 9 Big 12 games and this will be the best offense they’ve seen this year as Miami reached at least 40 points 8 times this season. These teams have combined to play 25 games with 16 going Over the total and this smells like a keep up type game offensively. Weather looks good in Orlando and we like the Over here.

#59/60 ASA TOP PLAY ON OVER 6.5 Goals - Vegas Golden Knights vs Anaheim Ducks, Monday at 10 PM ET - The Ducks are starting John Gibson in goal. He is 1-4 in his last 5 starts and has allowed at least 3 goals in each of those five games! Anaheim is off a 5-4 win at Utah in the shootout last night.  The Ducks have allowed 3.5 goals per game in their last 10 games.  Anaheim will struggle again in that department here as the Golden Knights have been red hot.  The Ducks also should score well here however as they have now won 5 of 8 road games and have averaged 3 goals scored in that 8-game stretch away from home. Vegas has won 11 of 14 games and has averaged 3.5 goals scored in going 6-1 last 7 games.  Vegas has scored an average of 4 goals per game in the last 4 games against divisional opponents and they'll be ready for the Ducks here.  What we like about Anaheim is the way they have turned things around, particularly on the road, and their goal-scoring ways continue here.  But Gibson's struggles in goal continue and Vegas (huge favorites in this game) are going to build off their 6-2 win versus Seattle as they have won 4 straight at home and 7 of 8 overall and stay hot here.  Both teams struggle on the penalty kill and the Golden Knights also have a potent power play.  The goals fly here!  Given numbers like the above it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is showing the highest probability here for a range of 7 to 8 goals with 4-3 or 5-3 the most highly probable outcomes as each club is likely to reach the 3-goal mark here.  Look for at least 7 goals in this one!  Over is the play Monday in Vegas

#131/132 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 42.5 Points - New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - It is going to be extremely cold in Lambeau Monday night and we don’t see these teams putting up a ton of points. The Saints will start rookie QB Rattler who has had some ups-and-downs this season. Last week against the Commanders he was 10/21 for 135 yards and a TD. NO’s offense is averaging just 4.7 yards per play in their last three games and have scored 14, 14, and 19 points in those games against defense’s worse than Green Bay’s. The Packer’s defense is 10th in YPPL allowed at 5.5 on the season, 9th against the run and 15th versus the pass. GB gives up the 8th fewest points per game in the NFL at 20.5. Green Bay has allowed 19 or less points in 4 of their last five games, the exception being the Lions who have one of the best O’s in the league. Green Bay will want to run the football here with their 5th best rushing O that attempts 30.7 rushes per game, 6th most. The Saints defense has been good in recent weeks allowing just 4.8YPPL which is significantly lower than their season average of 5.8YPPL allowed. New Orleans’s D has held their last 5 opponents to 21 or less points, three of which scored 17 or less.

#861/862 ASA PLAY ON Under 143 Points – Middle Tennessee State vs Tennessee, Monday at 7 PM ET - Tennessee is #1 nationally in eFG% defense and #2 in defensive efficiency. They are allowing just 55 PPG this season and they really make teams work on the offensive end allowing a shot attempt every 19 seconds (4th in the country). They have held a number of high level offenses to low point totals this year including limiting Baylor (5th nationally in offensive efficiency) to 62 points, Illinois (37th nationally in offensive efficiency) to 64 points, Louisville (55th nationally in offensive efficiency) to 55 points, and Miami FL (38th nationally in offensive efficiency) to 62 points. The Vols have held almost half their opponents (5) to less than 60 points and limited 2 of their opponents to less than 40 points. MTSU is not a good 3 point shooting team (31%) and they don’t attempt many from deep. They should be drastically limited from beyond the arc here vs a Tennessee defense that ranks #1 nationally in guarding the arc allowing only 24%. On the other end of the court, the Blue Raiders have done a great job defensively limiting opponents to just 5 made 3 pointers per game and holding them to 27% from deep (5th nationally). The majority of points in this game should come from inside the arc which always helps the Under. We wouldn’t be surprised if MTSU fails to top 55 points in this game which would mean Tennessee would need to get to almost 90 for this one to go Over. 6 of Tennessee’s last 7 games have failed to top 141 points and we think this one sticks in the mid to upper 130’s. Under is our play here.

#129/130 ASA PLAY ON Over 47.5 Points – Tampa Bay Bucs vs Dallas Cowboys, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - At first glance, this looks like a square bet but there are several factors that have us on this Over. The Cowboys are the fastest paced team in the NFL running a play every 26.7 seconds. Running more plays makes up for the Cowboys lack of explosiveness with an offense that average just 5.0 yards per play on the season. In their three most recent games the Dallas offense has been better at 5.3YPP while averaging 1-point scored for every 15.4 yards gained. After a slow start at QB, Cooper Rush has guided the Cowboys offense to 34, 27, 20 and 30-points in their last four games. Dallas should get plenty of opportunities offensively against this Bucs defense that is 27th in total yards per game allowed, 21st in YPP allowed at 5.8, 22nd in stopping the run and 30th against the pass. Tampa Bay’s offense with Baker Mayfield under center has been one of the best in the NFL this season. The Bucs have scored 20+ points in every game but one this season and average 28.8ppg which is 4th most in the league. Tampa Bay is 3rd in total YPG, 3rd in YPP, 4th in rushing and 4th in passing yards per game. The Dallas defense has regressed this season ranking 26th in total YPG allowed, 31st in YPP allowed at 6.1, 29th against the run and 21st against the pass. This game shapes up to be a shootout.

#113/114 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 45.5 Points - Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Second season meetings within the division have trended towards the Under in recent years and this game has all the makings of a low scoring affair. When these teams met earlier this season in Philly they combined for 44 total points and stayed below the set number of 49. The Commanders managed just 264 total yards 4.3 yards per play. Philadelphia ran it for 228 yards and passed for another 206 at 6.3YPP. Washington is averaging 5.8YPP for the season but have dropped to 5.5YPP in their last three games. The Commanders have faced just two top 10 defenses this season out of their 14 games. In those two games against Pittsburgh and Philly they averaged less than 4.4YPP overall. Philadelphia is very content to play ball-control offense and grind out wins, just as they did last week against the Steelers. Philly has stayed Under in 5 of their last six games as a result. The Eagles average 5.7YPP on the season but that number dips to 5.1 in their last three games. Philadelphia’s defense gets our 3rd overall grading and is the best defense in terms of yards per play allowed at 4.7. The Eagles allow the fewest points in the NFL this season at 17.6. with both teams rating in the bottom half of the league in pace of play we expect a low scoring game here.

#211/212 ASA PLAY ON Under 52 Points – Indiana vs Notre Dame, Friday at 8 PM ET - Both defensive units are the best teams on the field in this game. Both are top 10 defense in YPG & YPP & Scoring D. Not only that, the defensive strengths match up very well vs each offense. The Irish want to run the ball and IU has the #1 rush defense in the country allowing just 71 YPG on the season. The Hoosiers offense ranks much higher in passing YPG compared to rushing YPG and the Notre Dame defense ranks #3 in the nation allowing just 157 YPG through the air. The Indiana offense has great scoring numbers putting up 43 PPG, however the 2 best defenses they’ve faced shut them down. Versus Ohio State, the Hoosiers had 15 points on 153 total yards, and versus Michigan they had 20 points on 264 total yards. On the other side, the Notre Dame offense faced very few high level defensive teams. They faced off vs 3 teams that ended the season in the top 30 in total defense. Army, who faced an incredibly weak schedule so their numbers on offense and defense were misleading, Miami OH, wo played in the MAC so same story, and Northern Illinois, who played in the MAC as well. Indiana, who ranks #2 in total defense and #3 in YPP allowed, will be the best defense Notre Dame has faced this season. Both teams are very slow paced with the Irish ranking 108th in seconds per play and Indiana ranking 104th. The weather doesn’t look great in South Bend in Friday night (windchills in the teens and 10+ MPH winds) and we think both teams struggle offensively. Under is the call.

#203/204 ASA PLAY ON Under 48 Points – California vs UNLV, LA Bowl on Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We expect Cal’s offense to struggle in this one vs a underrated UNLV defense. The offense wasn’t great to begin with ranking 82nd in YPP and 82nd in scoring (26 PPG) but that was with QB Mendoza under center. They relied very heavily on him this season as he attempted nearly 400 passes and threw for over 3,000 yards. He won’t play in this game as he’s in the portal and his back up in out as well. That means 3rd string Harris, a transfer from Ohio U who didn’t start there, will start in this game. The Bears topped their season average of 26 PPG only 4 times this season (minus FCS opponents) and 3 of those were vs defenses ranked 97th or lower. And again, that was with Mendoza at QB. UNLV’s defense ranked 36th in YPP allowed and was really good vs the run (16th nationally allowing 109 YPG on the ground) which will put a lot on the shoulders of Harris who is not an accomplished passer. UNLV held 8 opponents to 21 points or less this season including Boise State (who ranks 6th in total offense) in the MWC Championship game. Cal’s defense has been very solid this year and they have been a high level run stopping unit ranking 15th nationally allowing 107 YPG on the ground. That matches up nicely vs UNLV who loves to run the ball averaging 45 rush attempts per game (7th most in the country). This will be one of the top defenses UNLV has faced and we think they’ll struggle. Rebel head coach Odom is already off to Purdue and OC Marion is a hot commodity, including being a lead candidate for the Sacramento State head job, and the distractions for him during this bowl season have been real. The last time these 2 met in 2022 the final score was 20-14 and we think the defenses rule again. Under is the call.