Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-05-23 | Rays -1.5 v. Nationals | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
#969 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Washington Nationals, Wednesday at 1:05 PM ET - As mentioned here in our play on Tampa Bay run line in their 10-6 win over the Nationals, the fact is that the Rays are the overall better team and are perfect on the season and the Nationals have just one win on the season. Washington, entering yesterday's action, was tied with the lowly Marlins for least runs scored (9) on the season. Though they finally scored well yesterday, the Nationals also gave up a pile of runs and, once again, Washington just will not be able to keep up here. The Rays are 5-0 and with their wins by an average score of 7 to 2. That is domination. Speaking of domination, the Nationals have been on the wrong end of it. Washington has 4 losses and by an average score of 7.5 to 2.8. Neither team has been involved in a game decided by less than 3 runs so far. We look for continued domination from the red hot Rays here and they get the win and improve to 6-0 on the season. Better bullpen, better lineup, and better overall team. As for the projected starters here, Corbin is off a nightmare season last year and then began this season with a horrific start versus Braves in which he allowed 7 hits and walked 3 in just 3 innings. The Rays are expected to start McClanahan here and he had a dominating first start of the season versus Detroit and he is coming off a stellar season for Tampa Bay. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one laying a moderate, but not huge, price with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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04-04-23 | Rays -1.5 v. Nationals | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
#925 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - ACTION on pitchers is a key here as the Rays currently have Josh Fleming listed as a starter but he is really more of a long reliever and Tampa Bay could use a different pitcher as an opener. Overall, this is likely to be more of a bullpen game for the Rays. The Nationals are expected to start Chad Kuhl here and he went 6-11 with a 5.72 ERA with the Rockies last season. The key to this match-up though has nothing to do with the pitchers. The fact is that the Rays are the overall better team and are 4-0 on the season and the Nationals are 1-3 on the season and tied with the lowly Marlins for least runs scored (9) on the season. Washington just will not be able to keep up here. The Rays are 4-0 and with their wins by an average score of 7 to 1. That is domination. Speaking of domination, the Nationals have been on the wrong end of it. Washington has 3 losses and by an average score of 7 to 2. Neither team has been involved in a game decided by less than 3 runs so far. We look for continued domination from the red hot Rays here and they get the win and improve to 5-0 on the season. Better bullpen, better lineup, and better overall team. There have not been a lot of one-run games (24.6%) so far this season and the money line is a little too heavy on this one for our liking so we'll turn to the run line and take advantage of a pick'em price in what should be a Tampa Bay blowout. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and not having to lay any big price with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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04-03-23 | Phillies v. Yankees -1.5 | 1-8 | Win | 126 | 16 h 11 m | Show | |
#976 ASA PLAY ON 8* New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (+125) over Philadelphia Phillies, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - Phillies are 0-3 to start the season and off a 1-run loss down in Texas last night. The first two defeats this season were blowout losses and this is tough spot for Philly as they had the Sunday night game down in Texas yesterday and then had to travel back to the Northeast for this one and lose an hour on the clock in the process. The Phillies are a shell of last year's team right now with Bryce Harper still out and Rhys Hoskins lost for the season. Those are two very big bats and the Phillies have scored just 4 runs total the last two games and now face a tough Yankees southpaw. They have very little experience with facing Nestor Cortes and what little they have has not been good. Conversely, the Yankees are quite familiar with Phillies starter Taijuan Walker. That's because he is a former Met and would face them annually in the Subway Series. They have a number of hitters that have pounded him and also he has been taken deep often in his starts versus the Yankees. Our computer math models project Walker gets hit hard and Cortes throws a gem. No matter the pitchers here, we like the powerful and healthier Yankees over a Phillies team struggling out of the gate. No team has a worse run differential than the Phillies -18 and also Philadelphia's 29 runs allowed is the worst mark in the majors and, keep in mind, 10 teams have already played 4 games this season and yet Phillies runs allowed worst of anyone in baseball. There have not been a lot of one-run games (22%) so far this season and the money line is a little too heavy on this one for our liking so we'll turn to the run line and look to cash some plus money on a New York blowout. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +125 money range with the Yankees. Lay it! |
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04-02-23 | Angels -143 v. A's | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show | |
#921 ASA PLAY ON 8* Los Angeles Angels -145 over Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET - The Athletics are headed for another rough season and this is a team that went 16-27 against southpaw starters last season. This one Sunday is a match-up of lefties and the Angels should hold the upper hand. The A's got 2 runs in the bottom of the 8th for a 2-1 win in the season opener between these teams. However, after what happened Saturday, that means they have barely held a lead in this series. Oakland's only lead has been heading to the top of the 9th Thursday. In Saturday's game they gave up an 11-spot in the top of the 3rd! The Angels should roll big again Sunday. Ken Waldichuk gets the start here and he has only 7 career MLB starts and those were just last season. Then, this year in spring training he went 0-4 with a 10.54 ERA. Not only did he get hit very hard, the A's lefty also walked an average of 1 batter per inning this spring. The Angels take advantage in this one and former Dodger Tyler Anderson, coming off a strong season, makes his Angels debut here and should shine. Unlike Waldichuk, Anderson is coming off a great spring in which he had a 1.35 ERA in his 3 starts. Also unlike Waldichuk, Anderson is entering his 8th MLB season! He is a veteran that just went 15-5 with a 2.57 ERA last season with the Dodgers. The Angels, when healthy, are a tough team and can challenge in this division. The A's are one of the worst teams not only in the division but in the entire league. There are no signs of an Oakland turnaround in sight and we think yesterday's blowout win is a sign of what is to come Sunday afternoon as well. Road rout for the Angels with the edge in lineup, starting pitcher, and bullpen. The value is on the Angels here ... even at a -145 price. |
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04-01-23 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 8.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
#959/960 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 8.5 Runs – Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres, Saturday at 8:40 PM ET - Both these pitchers struggled in spring training. Expected starters are Jose Urena for Rockies and Michael Wacha for Padres. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as San Diego is now 0-2 on the season dropping the first two games of this series with the Rockies and we expect a response at the plate tonight. Colorado now has 11 runs on 26 hits in the first two games of this series. The Rockies are a confident bunch right now and getting some strong at-bats but the Padres have a very solid lineup and get back track here. Urena was hit hard last season and lefties hit him at a .327 clip. Keep in mind, San Diego had 5 left-handed sticks in the lineup Thursday versus the righty Marquez and will likely do the same against Urena. Then you look at their right-handed lumber and it is dangerous with guys like Boegaerts and Machado plus you have a red-hot Kim off a 3-hit game. The Padres will hit well but the Rockies too as Wacha had struggled 3 straight seasons before last year's success and we are not convinced, based on his spring too, that he is going to be able to come close to duplicating that 2022 success this season. That is particularly true early on as it looks like he could be slow out of the gate. Also, weather looks good tonight with temps in the low 60's to upper 50’s and light winds blowing. Over is the call tonight. |
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03-31-23 | White Sox v. Astros -153 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 5 m | Show | |
#908 ASA PLAY ON 8* Houston Astros -155 over Chicago White Sox, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - We like the value here with Houston off a loss yesterday and Cristian Javier on the mound. Javier is off a season in which he had a 2.54 ERA and he was solid in his only start versus the White Sox. As for Chicago's Lance Lynn, he has found Minute Maid Park to be a house of horrors in recent seasons. Overall, even when he faces them as a host, Lynn has struggled. Particularly in Houston though, the numbers are very ugly. He is 0-5 with 23 earned runs allowed in 31 innings the past 4 seasons in his starts at Minute Maid Park. Lynn has allowed 10 homers in those 5 starts at Minute Maid Park. The White Sox got a strong start from Dylan Cease yesterday and that keyed the win but we just do not see a repeat of that here with Lynn on the mound. That said, and considering Javier's ability to dominate starts, this looks like a great bounce back spot for the Astros. We like the Astros to have an early advantage here based on the starting pitchers and grab a lead then handing it off to a top notch bullpen. Yes, they blew the save yesterday but this is very unusual for this team and this bullpen and that is even more reason they respond with a stronger close-out in the final frames of this game. Houston also should hit much better today as, of course, there is only one Dylan Cease in this White Sox rotation (no one else in this rotation is on his level) and of course he will not be pitching today after going yesterday! The Astros, including post-season, have won 10 of the last 12 times in a game following a loss and the value is on Houston here - even at a -155 price. |
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03-30-23 | Braves -1.5 v. Nationals | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
#961 ASA PLAY ON 8* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Washington Nationals, Thursday at 1:05 PM ET - Atlanta dominated this series during the regular season last year including winning 14 of the 19 meetings and 10 of the 14 wins Braves had over the Nationals came by at least 2 runs. In their 19 meetings last season, the Braves had a +49 run differential which equates to +2.6 runs per game and that includes their 5 losses. Pretty dominant to say the least. Atlanta should have a big advantage on the mound here as they are expected to send Fried to start their season opener. Fried is 4-0 in his last 4 decisions vs Washington and is sporting a 52-20 record in the past 4 seasons combined and he finished last season with an outstanding 2.48 ERA. Corbin will be the likely starter for the Nationals here and he led the National League in 3 categories last season that no pitcher wants to lead in! Corbin had 19 losses and allowed 107 earned runs and gave up 210 hits! He is in trouble here against one of the best teams in the league and facing them as a member of a Nationals team that is one of the worst teams in the league. Corbin was poor against the Braves last year as well with a 9.42 ERA and OBA of .391 as Braves hit nearly .400 against hime! He faced Atlanta 4 times last season and was rocked for 15 ER’s in just 14 innings of work. The visitor has the better bullpen and, entering a new season, they of course have all the key arms available for this one other than injured closer Raul Iglesias. However, his short-term absence for Atlanta is mitigated by the fact they have such depth - including in the bullpen - and can lean heavily on guys like AJ Minter, Joe Jimenez and Collin McHugh. They are rested and ready and we're getting this Braves team with a top starter on the mound vs a Nationals team with a guy that would be a 4th starter on most teams and not an opening day guy. Corbin was one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball last season. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one even at a price in the -140 money range with the Braves. Lay it! |
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11-01-22 | Astros v. Phillies OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 7.5 Runs – Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies, Monday at 8 PM ET - We like the value on the total here. We were on the Under in Game 2 which was 7 runs and that was with Philadelphia ace Wheeler and Houston #2 starter Valdez on the mound. Now these 2 push down to their #4 and #3 starters with McCullers and Suarez and the total went up only a half a run. The Phillies are back home where they excel offensively and put runs on the board. In their 5 playoff games at Citizens Bank Park they scored 35 runs for an average of 7 RPG. Most of those games were vs high level starting pitchers including Darvish & Musgrove for San Diego and Strider and Morton for Atlanta. On the season the Phillies scored the 4th most runs at home with an average of 5.3 per game. Houston has averaged 4.6 RPG over their 9 game post-season scoring at least 4 in 7 of those 9 games. That includes Houston putting up 10 runs in the first 2 games of this series facing Philadelphia’s 2 ace starters Wheeler and Nola. Those 2 starters allowed 9 ER’s in 9.1 innings pitched in games 1 & 2. The Astros have had more success vs left handers this year compared to right handed pitchers. They’ve hit .260 on the season vs lefties (.238 vs RH) and they are averaging 5.1 RPG (4.4 vs RH). Suarez pitched in relief last week in this series and the one start he had vs Houston (in early October) he was shelled for 6 ER’s in just 3 innings of work. The drop down in starters on both sides should provide both teams with a solid opportunity to be successful offensively. Weather will be much better tonight with temps in the 60’s and light winds blowing from left to right. We like OVER 7.5 Runs here. |
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10-29-22 | Phillies v. Astros UNDER 7 | Top | 2-5 | Push | 0 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
#953 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs - Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Phillies took game 1 of the series in a higher scoring 6-5 game but we like tonight’s match up to stay Under 7. The Phils have their top starter on the mound tonight in Zach Wheeler. He has been outstanding all season long but he’s turned his game up a notch in the post-season. He has started 4 games in the playoffs totaling 25.1 innings and he’s allowed just 10 hits during that stretch and 5 earned runs. The Houston line up has seen very little of Wheeler with 11 total plate appearances among their entire team and he did not face them this season giving him a big advantage here in our opinion. The Phillies will face Houston starter Valdez and he has been lights out as well in the post-season. He’s pitched 12.2 innings in the playoffs giving up just 8 hits and 2 ER’s. Both are low HR pitchers allowing 0.76 and 0.50 per innings so the long ball will be tough to come by tonight after they combined for 3 round trippers last night. After these 2 exit, the Houston bullpen has been one of the best in baseball all season with a 2.67 ERA and while Philadelphia’s relievers weren’t as impressive during the regular season, in their 12 playoff games their ERA is just 2.81. Neither of these teams has a great batting average in the post-season, both right around .230, but the Phillies have been fortunate to hit .307 in the playoffs with runners in scoring position, well above their team batting average. Some regression is expected on that end, especially vs Valdez who has held this line up to a .135 batting average (lifetime) in 42 plate appearances. When Wheeler and Valdez have started in the post-season (4 starts) their games have averaged a total of 5 runs. We see another low scoring game tonight in Houston. |
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10-21-22 | Padres v. Phillies OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
#971/972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 7.5 Runs – San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies, Friday at 7:35 PM ET - Two polar opposite ballparks in this series as San Diego is a pitcher’s park that averages 7.32 total RPG on the season while Philadelphia is a hitter’s park that averages over 9 total RPG on the year. The Phillies averaged 5 RPG at home this season which was the 4th most in MLB. In their 2 post season games they scored 9 & 8 runs vs a very good Atlanta pitching staff and the shelled both starters – Strider and Morton – who are top of the line rotation guys. Philadelphia has scored at least 4 runs in 19 of their last 23 home games. They’ll be facing SD starter Musgrove who has been pitching well but struggled in his only appearance vs Philly this year where they lit him up for 6 ER’s in 6 innings pitched. The Padres will face Philly left hander Suarez who is considered their 3rd or 4th best starter. He has an ERA at home of 4.27 and his WHIP on the season is a rather high 1.33. San Diego has been a solid hitting team vs lefties averaging 4.5 RPG on the season and on the road they’ve put up almost 5.5 RPG vs south paws. Weather looks good tonight with temps in the 60’s and light winds blowing out. Over is the call tonight. |
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10-19-22 | Phillies v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
#953/954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres, Wednesday at 4:30 PM ET - The Phillies took game 1 last night by a final score of 2-0 with the two teams combining for only 4 hits and 7 total baserunners. We see a similar result this afternoon. Both teams have high level starters taking the mound with the Phillies Aaron Nola and the Padres Blake Snell. Nola has been red hot in the post-season not allowing a single run in 12.2 innings pitched. Going back to the end of the regular season, he has not allowed an earned run in 4 of his last 5 starts. He faced the Padres just once this season and allowed 1 earned run in 7 innings with 10 strikeouts. San Diego will counter with Blake Snell who held the high powered LA Dodger line up to 1 earned run in 5.1 innings of work last Friday. He has been sharp as of late allowing just 5 earned runs in his last 6 starts combined. In 78 combined plate appearances, the current Phillies line up is hitting just .191 lifetime vs Snell. Neither team has been lighting it up at the plate in the post-season with Philadelphia hitting .218 and San Diego hitting .219. Both have relied heavily on the HR to put runs on the board and that’ll be tough today as both Nola (0.83) and Snell (0.77) are allowing well less than 1 HR per 9 innings pitched. Petco Park is always known as a pitcher’s park and this year was no exception as the average total runs scored here is 7.32 for the season. With the wind blowing in from left field this afternoon at 10 MPH, this game sets up as another low scoring affair. Let’s take the Under in this one. |
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10-18-22 | Guardians +165 v. Yankees | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
#925 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Guardians +150 over NY Yankees, Tuesday at 4:05 PM ET - Game 5 with the winner moving on to face Houston in the ALCS. We like the value here with Cleveland and Civale on the mound. He has pitched very well down the stretch allowing 2 ER’s or less in 8 of his last 9 starts. Over his last 10 starts, he’s allowing just 1.9 ER’s per 5 innings pitched. While Civale’s ERA is 4.92, he’s pitched better than that with an xERA of 3.80 and an xFIP of 3.62. Yesterday the NY starter was scheduled to be Taillon and we really liked that match up for Cleveland. Now that Cortes will start, we still think the Guardians have some advantages. First he will be starting a very short 3 days rest after throwing 92 pitches. Cortes has only done that once in his career and allowed 4 runs on 6 hits in just 2.1 innings. Second, Cleveland has some decent success vs Cortes a few days ago with 9 baserunners in just 5 innings but they were only able to come up with 2 runs. After struggling at the plate but still getting the 2 game sweep of TB in their wildcard series, Cleveland has been the better offensive team here with 14 more hits so far in the first 4 games. They’ve outhit the Yankees in 3 of the 4 games with yesterday’s game ending with each team having 6 hits. NY is hitting just .177 in this series and we don’t see them breaking out tonight. The bullpens are nearly even with a slight edge on the season to Cleveland with a better ERA and WHIP. As of late the Cleveland relievers have been nearly unhittable with an ERA of 0.74 through the last 5 games and 1.73 over the last 10. There is an outside chance that Bieber will start this game for Cleveland and we’re still on board with that. He’ll be coming off 3 days rest similar to Cortes (discussed above) and at that point we’d call starters even (short rest & similar stats) but we like the way the Cleveland bullpen and hitters are performing more so than the Yankees. The Guardians have won their last 8 games following a loss and the value is on Cleveland here at +150. |
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10-14-22 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 6.5 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
#961/962 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 6.5 Runs – Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies, Friday at 4:35 PM ET - This total was sitting at 7.5 last night in anticipation of Morton starting for the Braves. They have since decided to start Spencer Strider and because of that the total dropped a full run to 6.5. Strider has been great this season but he hasn’t pitched in a month. He’s been on the DL and we can’t expect him to be at the top of his game in this one. His pitch count will also be limited in this game. On the season Strider had much better numbers at home compared to on the road where the Braves were just 7-7 in his 14 starts. Nola takes the hill for the Phillies. He’s off a very good outing @ St Louis in his only playoff start this year, however Atlanta has had solid success vs him this season as he allowed 4 or more earned runs in 3 of his 5 starts vs the Braves. These are 2 of the top offensive teams in baseball. They both rank in the top 9 in MLB in RPG, OPS, HR’s, and batting average. This is the lowest total set on a game between these 2 NL East rivals this season and we don’t think it’s warranted. Only 2 of their 10 meetings in Philly this year resulted in less than 8 total runs scored. They averaged 9.4 total runs per game this season when playing in Philadelphia. When playing at home this season (vs all teams), Philadelphia games averaged over 9 total runs. Weather looks good with temps in the mid 60s and light wind blowing out to right. We’ll take Over 6.5 in this one. |
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10-11-22 | Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
#924 ASA TOP PLAY ON LA Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (+100) over San Diego Padres, Tuesday at 9:35 PM ET - LA dominated this series during the regular season winning 14 of the 19 meetings and 13 of those wins came by at least 2 runs. In their 19 meetings this season, the Dodgers had a +63 run differential which equates to +3.3 runs per game and that includes their 5 losses. Pretty dominant to say the least. LA should have a big advantage on the mound here as they will send either Kershaw or Urias to start game 1. Both were outstanding vs San Diego this season with Kershaw sporting a 0.75 ERA in 2 starts vs the Padres and Urias came in with a 1.50 ERA in 4 starts. Clevinger will be the starter for San Diego after they used their top 3 starters over the weekend in NY. He has not pitched since October 1st and is coming off an illness so he may not be at 100%. Clevinger was poor on the road this year as well with a 5.46 ERA and a WHIP of 1.35. He faced LA 3 times this season and was rocked for 14 ER’s in just 13 innings of work. The host has had the better bullpen all season long (2nd in ERA and 1st in WHIP) and they have all arms available for this one. They are rested and ready while Padres are off emotional 3 game east coast series vs Mets. We’re getting this rested LA team with their top starter on the mound (either Urias or Kershaw) vs the Padres 4th starter. We think we’re getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at even money with the Dodgers. |
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10-07-22 | Rays v. Guardians UNDER 6 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
#945/946 ASA PLAY ON Under 6 Runs – Tampa Bay @ Cleveland, Friday at 12:05 PM ET - These 2 teams are very similar in that they are pitching and defense first and neither offense has much in terms of power numbers. They have the 2 lowest team ERA’s and they have hit the fewest HR’s of all the teams in the wild card round. These 2 offenses rank 26th and 29th in in HR’s per game and 21st and 25th in slugging percentage. With cold temps on Cleveland (low 50’s) and the wind blowing straight in at 15 MPH, we don’t expect any long balls in this one which should limit scoring. These two met 6 times this year, including 3 times last week, and averaged just 6.6 total RPG. To this total is set basically right at that number but each team has their top starting pitcher on the mound which tells us this number should be set lower. Cleveland’s starter Shane Bieber was very strong this season especially down the stretch allowing just 1.7 ER’s per game over his last 10 starts (Average of 6.1 IP per start). He allowed just 0.8 HR’s per 9 innings this season and as we mentioned with TB’s lack of power, this will be a station to station game. The Rays McClanahan’s numbers aren’t as solid in the 2nd half of the season but he still allowed just 2 ER’s or fewer in 5 of his last 6 starts. The lefty should have success vs a Cleveland offense who’s top hitters are left handed. The Guardians ranked 29th in MLB in OPS vs southpaws and 28th in slugging percentage. Both bullpens are very good ranking 5th and 7th in MLB in ERA and 3rd and 6th in WHIP. This shapes up to be a 2-1 or 3-2 type game in our opinion and we’ll grab the Under. |
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10-04-22 | Angels -135 v. A's | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Angels (Lorenzen) -135 vs. Oakland A’s (Irvin) – 9 :40PM ET - In the last 15 days the Angels are one of the hottest hitting teams in baseball with a .289 team average while producing 59 total runs in 13 games. Over the course of that same time the A’s are hitting just .222 as a team and have a 3-7 SU record their last ten games. LA is 8-2 SU their last ten games. These same two teams just met in late September and these two pitchers had opposite results. Irvin lost his start against the Angels 2-4 while allowing 9 hits, 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 innings of work. Lorenzen was a -170 favorite and won his start 4-1. He threw 5 strong innings allowing 3 hits and 0 earned runs while striking out 8. The Angles have a net +/- of runs per game of +1.90 per in their last ten contests. Oakland on the other hand has a negative differential of minus -1.30 runs per game in their last ten. Back the hot team here in Los Angeles. |
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10-03-22 | Cubs +116 v. Reds | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
#953 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Cubs +115 over Cincinnati Reds, Monday at 6:40 PM ET - The Cubs are playing extremely well down the stretch despite their record and the Reds, who have 99 losses, are not. Chicago has won 10 of their last 11 games including a 3 game sweep of Philadelphia who is fighting for a wild card spot. The Cubs also just swept this Cincinnati team over the weekend and in a weird situation, they now close the season out with 3 more games vs the Reds on the road. In their series vs the Reds, the Cubs outscored Cincy 16-3. The Reds scored 1 run in each game and they have now averaged just 1.8 RPG over their last 10 with a team batting average of .170. They are not just 1-9 their last 10 games with their only win during that stretch coming at Milwaukee by a final score of 2-1. They have scored more than 3 runs just ONCE since September 17th. It won’t get any easier for the Cincinnati offense tonight facing Chicago rookie Wesneski who has made 3 starts since getting called up in September, allowing just 4 ER’s in 18.1 innings in those 3 starts. Opponents are hitting just .198 off Wesneski since getting called up. Chicago will face Hunter Greene who has made 3 starts since coming off the injured list. Those have been solid starts for Greene, but the fact is, because Cincinnati’s offense has been so poor, they’ve lost all 3 of those outings. Greene has made 23 starts this season and the Reds have won 5 of those starts. FIVE! He’s the Cubs twice this season pitching a total of 9 innings allowing 8 ER’s. Cincy continues to have one of the worst bullpens in MLB with an ERA of 4.66 and over their last 10 that number balloons to 5.36. The Cubs bullpen has been outstanding as of late with an ERA of 2.12 their last 10. We feel this is a very solid value play on the Cubs who should be favored in this one. |
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09-29-22 | A's v. Angels UNDER 7 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
#967/968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Oakland A’s vs LA Angels, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - Two of the worst offenses in MLB squaring off in this one. The A’s rank 28th or lower (out of 30 teams) in RPG, batting average, OPS, and HR’s per 9 innings. The Angels rank 24th or lower in the first 3 categories listed above. In the first 2 games of this series these teams put up 7 and 5 total runs and tonight we have better pitchers on the mound for both teams compared to the first 2 meeting of this series. LA’s Ohtani is allowing an average of just 1.3 ER over his last 10 starts (average start of 5.2 innings). He’s been dominant at home this season with an ERA of 2.00 and in 81 innings pitched he has allowing only 63 hits with a 109 strikeouts. He’s faced Oakland twice this season and he has an ERA of 1.54 in those 2 meetings. Ohtani is one of the top strikeout pitchers in the Majors 12 per 9 innings pitched and the Oakland offense averages almost 9 K’s per 9 innings so lots of swings and misses tonight. Oakland goes with lefty Irvin tonight. He’s faced the Angels 3 times this season with an ERA of 2.54. He’s coming off a couple poor outings, however those were vs the Mets & Astros, two of the top offensive teams in MLB. We expect him to pitch much better tonight vs an LA team he’s had success against and the Angels are averaging just 3.5 RPG this season vs left handers. The 2 have faced off 15 times this season and 11 of those games have totaled 7 or fewer runs. The UNDER is 21-8-2 last 31 meetings between these AL West rivals. We’ll call for another UNDER tonight in LA. |
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09-27-22 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* #957/958 OVER 8.5 RUNS St. Louis @ Milwaukee, 7:40 PM ET - St Louis is coming off two low scoring series against the Dodgers and Padres. The Dodgers have the best pitching staff in baseball with a league leading 2.83 ERA. The Padres own the 11th best team ERA but in the last 15 days they’ve been especially hot with a 2.62 ERA. The Cardinals have been shutout three times in their last seven games which has driven this total down from where it should be. These two teams are in the top 10 in total runs scored this season and the Brewers have been especially hot with 5.16 runs scored per game in their last 12. Milwaukee will send Adrian Houser to the hill with his 4.62 ERA and 6-9 record. He is 0-2 with a 5.59 ERA in two starts this season against the Cardinals, giving up nine runs (six earned) in 9 2/3 innings of work. The Cardinals will counter with Miles Mikolas who is 11-13 SU on the year with a 3.35 ERA. Mikolas has lost his last three starts and is 2-4 with a 3.07 ERA over his last seven. |
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09-23-22 | Angels v. Twins UNDER 7 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
#977/978 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – LA Angels vs Minnesota Twins, Friday at 8 PM ET - Terrible weather in Minnesota tonight with 10+ MPH winds blowing in, cool weather, and possible rain. Not conducive for scoring runs. The starting pitchers should also lend to a low scoring game. Ohtani starts for LA and he has been fantastic all season. He’s striking out almost 12 per 9 innings and over his last 10 starts he’s allowing just 1.7 ER’s with an average of 6 IP. Over his last 4 starts he’s allowed just 2 ER over 27 innings pitched. He’s facing a struggling Minnesota offense that is averaging less than 3 RPG over their last 10 and they rank 22nd in runs scored since the All Star Break. The Angel offense has been one of the worst all season long. They rank 26th in RPG, 25th in batting average and 26th in OPS. They also strike out nearly 10 times per 9 innings. They are 27th in runs scored since the All Star Break and are averaging just 3.5 RPG over their last 10. They face Minnesota’s Varland who is making his 3rd start of the season. He had one very solid start vs a talented Yankee line up (2 ER allowed), struggled a bit vs Cleveland, but has 10 strikeouts in 10 IP which should match up well with LA’s strikeout prone line up. Varland had fantastic numbers in the Minors and nobody in the Angels line up has ever seen him. Let’s go UNDER the total in tonight’s game. |
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09-21-22 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -145 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
#962 ASA PLAY ON 8* LA Dodgers -1.5 on Run Line (-145) over Arizona, Wednesday at 10:10 PM ET - The Dodgers split their doubleheader yesterday with the DBacks and Arizona’s win in the night cap was just their 4th win in 17 meetings vs LA this season. In those 13 losses vs the Dodgers, 9 of them came by at least 2 runs and we’ll call for another on Wednesday evening. Arizona will send Bumgarner to the mound and he has been struggling for much of the season but especially as of late. He’s allowing an average of 4.4 ER’s per game over his last 10 starts and his average innings pitched during that span is 5. He's had at least 5 runs scored on him in 7 of his last 9 starts and his ERA during that run is 7.82. That shouldn’t change tonight facing a Dodger line up that is averaging 6.4 RPG at home vs left handers this year. In their 2 games vs Bumgarner this season, LA has scored 8 runs in just 11 innings. The Dodgers Dustin May will get his 6th start since coming back from injury. In his previous 5 starts he’s allowed an average of just 2 ER’s per start and in his most recent start he didn’t allow a single run or a hit vs SF in his 5 innings of work. They have May on a pitch count again tonight but when he comes out the Dodgers bullpen ERA of 2.95 is 2nd best in the Majors and their WHIP of 1.06 ranks #1. May and the LA pitching staff should fare well tonight vs an Arizona line up that is hitting just .178 over their last 10 games and averaging 2.5 RPG. Even though they’ve wrapped up the NL West, the Dodgers still have a ton to play for as they still haven’t locked up the best record in the NL and they are chasing their all time best season of 106 wins (still need 4 more). They win at home by an average of more than 2 RPG and they should dominate tonight. Take LA -1.5 runs. |
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09-20-22 | Red Sox v. Reds +103 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
#928 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Reds +100 over Boston Red Sox, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Both teams had yesterday off and both are out of the playoff race. Both teams have been struggling as well with Boston winning just 4 of their last 11 and the Reds winning 2 of their last 11. However, Cincinnati did show some life in their most recent 5 games series at division leading St Louis. Cincy won 2 of those games and had 2 losses by a single run. They send their hottest pitcher to the mound tonight as Lodolo has allowed an average of 2 ER’s per game over his last 10 starts. At home this year Lodolo has a very solid ERA of 2.77 and over his last 3 starts his ERA is 2.28. The Reds have won 8 of his 13 starts since he came back to the big leagues in early July. They have also won 7 of his last 9 home starts. Boston sends Bello to the hill and the Sox have won just once in his 10 starts this season. His road ERA is north of 7.00 with a WHIP of nearly 2.00. He has made 4 road starts this season and Boston has lost all 4 by a combined score of 23-10. The Cincinnati offense has been much better at home this year hitting .250 and averaging nearly 5 RPG. We like them to have success vs Bello while Cincy’s starter Lodolo continues his red hot run. Take the Reds at home. |
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09-19-22 | Tigers v. Orioles -1.5 | Top | 11-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #968 Baltimore Orioles -1.5 runs vs. Detroit Tigers, 7 PM ET - Baltimore is in desperation mode as they sit 4-games back in the Wild Card race with time running out on the regular season. The Tigers are the perfect opponent to cut into that deficit. Detroit is 55-91 on the season and have a season net run differential of minus -173 which ranks them 27th out of 30 teams. Baltimore will send Tyler Wells to the mound who is 7-6 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The Tigers will counter with lefty Tyler Alexander who is 3-10 on the season with a 5.35 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. He is 0-3 in his last four starts with an ERA over 10.00, allowing 28 total hits, 19 runs in 18.3 innings of work. What’s significant for our bet against him here is that the Tigers lost those four starts by an average of 4.25 runs per game. Detroit really struggles against right-handed starters this season hitting jut .213 as a team and scoring 3.07 runs/9 innings. We will lay the 1.5 runs in this one. |
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09-15-22 | Reds v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -127 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
#956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis Cardinals -1.5 Runs (-130) over Cincinnati Reds, Thursday at 7:45 PM ET - The Reds are in a free fall losing 6 straight games including a 4 game sweep at home at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates. In that series the Reds were outscored 23-8 and only collected 23 total hits for an average of less than 6 hits per game. St Louis is surging winning 33 of their last 45 games and they’ve built a 7 game lead in the NL Central over Milwaukee. The Cards are also chasing the Mets to try and earn a bye in the wild card round. Mikolas is on the mound and he has been fantastic at home this season with a 2.23 ERA allowing just 59 hits in 89 innings pitched. He’s coming off a poor outing, however that was on the road vs where his numbers are quite a bit higher, and he’s had an extra day off to rest up between starts. In his 1 start at home vs the Reds this season he pitched 7 innings and allowed 1 ER. Cincy is struggling at the plate right now and we expect them to have problems plating runs tonight. That shouldn’t be a problem for St Louis. They will be facing Chase Anderson who has pitched only 9 innings this season, but 2.1 of those innings have come vs the Cardinals. They faced him twice just 2 weeks ago and Anderson gave up 7 ER’s in only 2.1 innings. On the season he’s allowed 3 home runs in just 9 innings which is a potential big problem here vs the Cards who are averaging 1.3 HR’s per game and have hit the most round trippers in MLB since the All Star Break. Anderson is backed up by the worst bullpen in MLB (highest ERA and 2nd highest WHIP) so we don’t expect the offense to stop when he exits. Cincinnati is just 27-43 on the road this year and vs teams over .500 they have the 2nd fewest wins in the Majors with a record of 25-53. We like the host Cardinals to win this one by 2+ runs. |
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09-14-22 | Orioles v. Nationals +135 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Washington Nationals +130 vs. Baltimore Orioles, 7 PM ET - This sets up nicely with a big underdog win on Wednesday with the Nats. Washington is 25th in runs/9 innings scored on the season but 10th in team batting average at .252. The Nationals though have put up 74 runs in their last 14 games or 5.28 runs per game which is 4th highest in baseball. Baltimore can’t say the same as they’ve scored 49 runs in that same span of 14 games and average just 4.23 runs/9 innings which is 21st in MLB. In comparing each team's last ten games we find the Nats are hitting .308 as a team while scoring 5.30 runs/9 innings. The Orioles are putting up just 3.87 runs/9 innings their last ten games and hitting just .220. Baltimore is starting pitcher Alexander Well who is a reliever so it’s going to be a heavy bullpen game for the O’s. Washington will counter with Patrick Corbin who doesn’t have great numbers at first glance with a 6-18 record and 6.30 ERA for the year. Most recently, Corbin has faced a brutally tough schedule which included starts against the Mets and Phillies twice, the Braves and Dodgers who all rank top 6 in runs scored per game. We like the situation here with the home dog. |
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09-12-22 | Cubs v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Mets -1.5 (-135) vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 PM ET - The Cubs are struggling to score runs with 39 scored in their last 12 games or 3.25 per game. The Mets are 5th in baseball in total runs scored on the season at 666 in 141 games. New York is putting up an average of 5.52 runs per 9/innings over the course of their last ten games. In the Mets last two games they outscored Miami 20-6. Chicago has been shutout twice in their last ten games and scored 3 or less in six games. Looking closer, in their last ten games the Mets are hitting .297 as a team versus right-handed pitchers and scoring 6.28 runs/9innings. The Cubs are hitting .239 as a team vs. righties in their last ten games scoring 3.68 runs/9 innings. NY will send Chris Bassett who is 13-7 SU on the season with a 3.24 ERA. In his last ten starts though Bassett has allowed 2.23 Earned Runs Per game while allowing just 5.46 hits. The Cubs will counter with young Javier Assad who is 0-1 in three starts with a 2.93 ERA. He was recently roughed up by the Reds in 5.1 innings when he allowed 4 earned runs on 5 hits. The Mets get a big home win in this game as they battle the Braves for the Division lead. |
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09-10-22 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 11.5 Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies, 8 PM ET - There will be plenty of runs scored in the higher altitude of Denver Saturday night when the D’backs take on the Rockies. In the last 15-days no team in baseball has scored more runs than Arizona who has put up 88 runs in 14 games going into Friday night. These same two teams just put up 23 runs Friday. Colorado scores an average of 5.76 runs per game at home with their home contests averaging 11.44 runs. The Rockies have hit lefties extremely well of late with a team average of .284 in their last ten games. Arizona is white hot while facing righties with a .302 team average in their last ten games while averaging 5.0 runs per 9 innings. Neither pitcher has us scared as Bumgarner is 6-13 SU for the D’Backs with a 4.83 ERA this season. Urena for the Rockies is even worse with a 3-6 record and 6.13 ERA. Both teams score a bunch again Saturday. |
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09-09-22 | Giants v. Cubs UNDER 8 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 8 RUNS San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs, 4 PM ET - The Cubs continue to struggle at the plate and were no-hit through 4 innings yesterday by an average pitcher for the Reds in Luis Cessa. Today it will be even tougher to manage runs against the Giants starter Carlos Rodon who is 12-7 on the year with a 2.92 ERA. Rodon has 201 strikeouts on the season in 157.3 innings pitched and the Cubs rank 6th worst in K’s on the season. Rodon has double-digit strikeouts in 5 of his last eight starts. On the season the Cubs rank 23rd in runs per 9 innings with 4.12 scored. In their last twelve games that average has dipped to 3.50 runs per game. The Giants haven’t been hitting much better than Chicago in recent games either and will struggle to score in this game too. San Francisco averages 4.52 runs per 9 innings on the season but in their last 14 games they are averaging just 4.00 runs/9 innings and hitting .225 as a team. The Giants will face the Cubs starter Drew Smyly who is coming off one of his worst outings of the season at St Louis but had pitched well in five straight prior to the Cardinals. Smyly gave up 7 earned runs to the hot-hitting Cards but prior to that he had allowed just 3 earned runs in five games or 29.3 innings of work. In three of the four meetings between these two teams this season they have totaled 6 or less runs. BET UNDER HERE! |
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09-08-22 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 8 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 RUNS Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs, 2:20 PM ET - These two teams pounded out 22 hits yesterday but only produced 8 runs. Our analytics suggest that both teams will have similar results at the plate today, but the run production will be higher. In each team's last ten games the combined total runs scored has been 9.10 for the Reds and 9.40 for the Cubs. Chicago has struggled to score runs lately but did put up 9 in the first game of this series. Chicago should put up solid offensive numbers here against the Reds starting pitcher Luis Cessa who has a 5.18 ERA and 5.47 FIP. Cessa has mainly been a reliever this year but has started three straight games while allowing 11 hits and 3 earned runs in 11 total innings. The Cubs are also a better hitting team against right-handed pitchers with a .241 team average and 6.5 runs per game on the season. The Reds run production is up in their last five games at 5.4 and they should put up plenty of runs against the Cubs starter Sampson early on. Sampson is 1-5 on the season with a 3.95 ERA and an expected XERA of 4.47. He has allowed 8 earned runs, 17 hits in his last 11.2 innings of work. The Reds also hit right-handed pitchers well with a .250 team average in their last ten games and a 5.6 runs per game average. Lastly, this will be a high bullpen usage game and both bullpens are atrocious. Cincinnati has the worst ERA of any bullpen in baseball and the Cubs are 24th. Bet the OVER here. |
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09-07-22 | Guardians v. Royals +127 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 127 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Kansas City Royals +120 vs. Cleveland Guardians, 8:10 PM ET - We like the small dog here on the moneyline and predict a solid win by the home team Royals. The Royals starter Zach Greinke is not the pitcher he once was, but he’ll be good enough here versus a struggling Cleveland lineup. Greinke is 4-8 SU on the year with a 4.14 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. He has pitched better in his last three starts allowing 3 earned runs in 16.1 inning pitched. In the last 15-days the Guardians are hitting .234 as a team but producing just 2.51 runs per game. That’s a stark contrast to the Royals who have put up 65 runs in their last 12 games over 5.41 runs per game. Kansas City should maintain that run production against Cleveland starter Cody Morris who is 0-1 on the season with a 9.00 ERA. In his lone start, Morris, pitched 2 innings versus Seattle allowing 4 hits and 2 earned runs. Kansas City beat Cleveland 5-1 earlier this year with Greinke on the mound. Greinke went 5 solid innings allowing just 3 hits, striking out 5 and not allowing a run. After dropping the first two games of the series we like KC to get a home win here. |
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09-06-22 | Reds +151 v. Cubs | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Cincinnati Reds +150 vs. Chicago Cubs, 7:40 PM ET - Here we get a chance to play on a live underdog in the Reds in a great situation to grab a win against a struggling Cubs team. Chicago has been struggling to score runs in their last ten games, producing just 3.20 runs per game. In that same stretch of games, they are hitting just.214 against right-handed pitchers such as Justin Dunn who they’ll face today. Dunn doesn’t have great overall numbers on the season with a 4.63 ERA and 1.37 WHIP but he’s pitched well in his last three outings. He is 2-1 in his last three starts with 15 innings pitched, just 10 hits allowed and 4 earned runs. In the last 15 days the Reds have the 10th best team average hitting .257 as a team. Cincinnati has also won 5 of their last eight games. The Cubs are 2-8 SU their last ten games and coming off being swept in St Louis while getting outscored by a combined 4-18 in three games. Wade Miley has been injured for most of the season and making his first appearance since June 10th. We doubt Miley will go long in this game and then it’s a Cubs bullpen which has an ERA of 4.37 which is one of the worst numbers in baseball. The Reds are hitting .274 in their last ten games against lefties, and they’ll have early success in this one. |
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09-04-22 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 RUNS Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox, 2:10PM ET - The Twins were just 1-hit by Dylan Cease and the White Sox and Saturday and we are betting they bounce back with a much better day at the plate Sunday. The White Sox pounded out 13 hits and 13 runs against the Twins yesterday. On Sunday the pitching match-up has Bundy for the Twins taking the hill to face Giolito for the Sox. Neither pitcher has overwhelming numbers on the season with Bundy toting a 4.53 ERA and 1.24 WHIP while Giolito has an ERA of 5.27 and a 1.50 WHIP. Giolito has been bad of late with 17 earned runs allowed in hit last four starts or 21.2 innings of work. In each teams last ten games they have averaged 9.40 runs which will get us the cash in this one. On the season these are two of the better hitting teams in baseball when facing right-handed pitchers. The Sox own the 4th best team average for the year against righties hitting .257. Minnesota isn’t far behind hitting .250 as a team against righties which is 8th best in the Bigs. In the ten meetings between these two teams this season they have scored 9 or more runs eight times. The bet here is OVER! |
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09-03-22 | Astros v. Angels UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 8 Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels, 9 PM ET - On the season the Astros are one of the higher scoring teams in baseball with 597 runs on the year in 4397 at bats which ranks 9th best. In their last eleven games though they have managed to score only 41 runs and are hitting .241 as a team. Today the Astros will have a tough time putting up runs against Angels starting pitcher Shohei Ohtani who has a 2.67 ERA and 1.06 WHIP on the season. In Ohtani’s last ten starts he is allowing just 1.60 Earned runs and an average of 5 hits per game. In two games against the Astros this season Ohtani has pitched 12 innings, just 1 earned run on 5 total hits and struck out 12 in each game. The Angels are one of the lowest scoring teams in baseball with 502 total runs in 132 games. In their last 27 games the Angels are averaging just 3.44 runs per game while hitting .223 as a team. The Astros will send Luis Garcia to the mound today and even though he doesn’t have great overall number, he is trending in the right direction with a better XERA and XFIP. Garcia doesn’t have to be great in this game to shutout the poor hitting Angels. The play here is UNDER 8 runs. |
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09-02-22 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 0-8 | Push | 0 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 runs Chicago Cubs @ St Louis Cardinals, 8:15 PM ET - This play sets up nicely for a higher scoring game based on current pitching and hitting trends. The Cardinals are 4th in total runs produced this season with 644 in 131 games. In the last 30-days nobody in baseball has scored more than the Cards who have 167 runs in 28 games or nearly 6 runs per game. St Louis is hitting .279 as a team with an .858 OPS which are also the best numbers in the Majors for that same 30-day span. The Cardinals should feast on Cubs starter Adrian Sampson who is 1-4 on the season with a 3.97 ERA and an XERA of 4.48. Sampson has really struggled in his last two starts giving up 6 earned runs on 13 hits in just 6.2 total innings of work. One of those outings was against this same St Louis team that roughed him up for 5 earned runs on 8 hits in a Cards 13-3 win. The Cubs will put up a few runs of their own in this match-up. The Cubs are below average in runs/9 innings on the season at 4.17 (23rd) but they should put up some runs in this game. The Cubs just faced the Cardinals starter Jordan Montgomery on August 22nd so they have a much better idea of what he brings to the mound. Montgomery is 7-3 on the season overall (started 3-3 with NY) with a 3.28 ERA. In his last start, Montgomery gave up 5 earned runs on 8 hits against the Braves. In their last ten games the Cubs and their opponents have averaged 9.60 runs per game. Chicago has hit lefties well in their last ten with a .265 average and 4.76 runs/9 innings. The same can be said for the Cardinals games which have averaged 10.30 runs per 9/innings with St Louis hitting .272 against righties and putting up an average of 5.02 runs/9. We expect lots of runs in this game and an Over winner early on. |
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09-01-22 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks +123 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 123 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Arizona Diamondbacks (+123) over Milwaukee Brewers, 9:40 PM ET - The situation clearly favors the D’Backs here who are at home and coming off a loss while the Brewers have to travel and are off a win. Both teams are playing well right now with each winning 5 of their last six games. Arizona’s offense has been better of late with a .256 team batting average in their last 13 games while producing an average of 5.92 runs per game. Milwaukee is hitting .232 as a team in their last 14 games and scoring 4.85 runs per game. Merrill Kelly is pitching lights out right now. In his last seven starts he is 2-0 with 46 K’s in 47.1 innings pitched and a 2.28ERA and .95 WHIP. In his last 15 games his ERA is 2.55 and his WHIP is still under 1.00. In comparison Brandon Woodruff's numbers are very good but slightly higher than Kelly’s in his last 7 and 15 games. Arizona is coming off an 18-2 drubbing by the Phillies last night and should be highly motivated after that embarrassing loss. We like the D'Backs as a home dog to bounce back here. |
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08-31-22 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 18-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 9 runs Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40 PM ET - In the matchup last night these two teams pounded out 21 total hits and put up 15 runs. The game could have been even higher scoring as they stranded 22 total base runners. The D’Back hitters are really seeing the ball right now as this offense has put up double-digit runs in 3 of their last four games and 7+ in 6 of their last nine games. Philadelphia is 6th on the season in total runs scored with 603 and own the 9th best team batting average and are 8th in OPS. The Phillies own the 4th best average when facing left-handed pitchers. Neither starting pitcher is great here with Bailey Falter getting the start for the Phillies and Tommy Henry for the D’Backs. Henry is 3-2 in 5 starts this season with a 3.25 ERA but his expected ERA is much higher at 5.09. Falter is 2-3 on the year with a 4.41 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He’s allowed 5 or more hits in 6 of his last seven starts. Arizona is hitting .288 as a team against lefties in their last ten games and scoring 9.77 runs per 9 innings. Philadelphia is hitting .275 their last ten against a left-handed pitcher scoring 5.48 runs/9 innings. With a pair of average pitchers and two hot hitting teams we expect plenty of runs in this one. |
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08-30-22 | Rays v. Marlins UNDER 6.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
#975/976 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 6.5 Runs – Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Miami’s offense has been brutal. Since the All Star Break they have the lowest batting average in MLB at .211 and have scored just 94 total runs in 37 games (2.5 RPG). The next lowest run total in the Majors since the break in Washington with 110 runs so Miami has by far the worst run production since mid July. They face one of the top pitchers in MLB tonight with TB sending McClanahan to the hill. He has an ERA of just 2.20, opponents have a batting average of only .184 vs McClanahan and he has the lowest xFIP on the board today at 2.27. He has a lifetime ERA of 0.82 vs Miami and his one start this year vs the Marlins didn’t allow a run. Miami has the worst batting average in MLB vs left handers at .199 and they average just 2.4 RPG on the season vs south paws. The Marlins will send lefty Luzardo to start tonight and he has been pitching very well with an ERA of 2.67 in his 5 starts this month. He has not faced TB this season giving him a leg up in this match up. The Rays offense has been below average all season ranking 20th or lower in batting average, RPG, OPS and HR’s. Versus left handers on the road this season Tampa is hitting .219 and averaging 3.6 RPG. We don’t anticipate either offense doing much in this game and we’ll side with the Under in this game. |
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08-29-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
#903 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Miami Marlins, Monday at 6:40 PM ET - The Dodgers have taken 2 of the first 3 in this series and this one sets up very nicely for them to pick up a win. LA’s one loss in this series was a 2-1 setback vs one of MLB’s top pitchers, Sandy Alcantara. In the other 2 games, LA has outscored Miami 18-7 and they’ve outhit the Marlins 30 to 10 in those 2 games. Not surprising as the Dodgers have the highest batting average and most runs scored in MLB this season. Meanwhile, since the All Star Break the Miami offense has been brutal. They rank dead last in batting average at .212 and they’ve only scored 92 runs (2.5 RPG) which is by far the worst in the Majors over that time period (Washington has scored 110 runs which ranks them 29th post All Star). Now we have a team that can’t hit or score runs facing Dodger pitcher Gonsolin who has allowed the lowest batting average in MLB this year at .169! He has allowed 2 ER’s or less in 20 of his 23 starts this season and he’s backed by one of the top bullpens in baseball. Just a terrible match up for a light hitting Miami team. Miami starter Lopez has tailed off drastically in the 2nd half of the season and the LA hitters should continue to stay hot tonight. Lopez was very good prior to the break with an ERA of 2.66, however since then he has started 7 games with an ERA of 6.00. His only really solid start in the 2nd half of the season was vs Oakland who is one of the worst hitting teams in MLB. The bullpen has also fallen off as of late with an ERA of almost 6.00 their last 10 outings so LA should have a chance to put some really solid offensive numbers on the board. The way Miami’s offense is playing the Dodgers may not need many runs to cover the -1.5. Take LA on the run line tonight. |
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08-28-22 | Pirates v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -124 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
#956 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - The Phillies have dominated this series with a perfect 6-0 record this year including a 6-0 win last night. The average score of the 6 games this season is Phillies 5.8 – Pirates 2.7. Going back further, the Phillies have won 11 of the last 13 meetings in Philadelphia and 73% of those wins have come by 2+ runs. The Pirates have been heading downhill for a while now losing 7 straight and 24 of their last 31 games. They are just 18-41 this year vs teams with a winning record. Since the All Star Break they rank dead last in MLB in batting average at .214 and 29th in OPS. They are averaging just 2.1 RPG during their current 7 game losing streak. They face Philly starter Syndergaard who has been on a nice run allowing 3 ER’s or less in 7 of his last 8 starts (4 with Angels and 4 with Philadelphia). The Phillies have been playing great baseball winning 22 of their last 31 games. Their offense ranks in the top 10 in RPG, batting average, and OPS and since the All Star Break they have a batting average of .274 which is 3rd best in MLB during that stretch. They have scored at least 6 runs in 5 of their last 7 games. They got a boost offensively as well with Bryce Harper rejoining the line up after a stint on the DL. The Phillies should have another big day offensively facing Pittsburgh starter Contreras who is 1-3 in last 4 starts with an ERA of 6.10. When he exits the Pittsburgh bullpen is among the worst in baseball ranking dead last in ER’s allowed and hits allowed this season. Phillies keep rolling with another easy win this afternoon. |
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08-27-22 | Pirates v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
#902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-135) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 6 PM ET - The Phillies have dominated this series with a perfect 5-0 record this year including a 7-4 win last night. The average score of the 5 games this season is Phillies 5.8 – Pirates 3.2. Going back further, the Phillies have won 10 of the last 12 meetings in Philadelphia and 70% of those wins have come by 2+ runs. The Pirates have been heading downhill for a while now losing 6 straight and 23 of their last 30 games. They are just 18-40 this year vs teams with a winning record. Since the All Star Break they rank dead last in MLB in batting average at .214 and 29th in OPS. They are averaging just 2.3 RPG during their current 6 game losing streak. They face Philly starter Gibson who has been on a nice run allowing 3 ER’s or less in 7 of his last 8 starts. The Phillies have been playing great baseball winning 21 of their last 30 games. Their offense ranks in the top 10 in RPG, batting average, and OPS and since the All Star Break they have a batting average of .274 which is 3rd best in MLB during that stretch. They have scored at least 7 runs in 4 of their last 6 games. They got a boost offensive as well with Bryce Harper rejoining the line up after a stint on the DL. The Phillies should have another big day offensively facing Pittsburgh starter Beede who was a reliever for much of the season. Since joining the starting rotation earlier this month, Beede is winless in 4 starts with an ERA of 7.50. When he exits the Pittsburgh bullpen is among the worst in baseball ranking dead last in ER’s allowed and hits allowed this season. Phillies keep rolling with another easy win tonight. |
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08-26-22 | Guardians -109 v. Mariners | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
#973 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Guardians -110 over Seattle Mariners, Friday at 10:10 PM ET - Seattle took the first game of the series 3-1 despite getting outhit 6 to 4 by the Guardians. The M’s were a bit lucky to get to 3 runs on just 4 hits as all their runs came on one HR in the 1st inning. Tonight’s match up features 2 starting pitchers heading in opposite directions. Cleveland starter Bieber has an ERA of just 1.62 over his last 5 starts and his lifetime ERA vs Seattle is a solid 3.75. He’s also been better on the road this year with an ERA of 3.00 and the Guardians have won 10 of his 14 road starts this season. Seattle starter Gilbert has not recorded a win since July 5th and over his last 8 starts he has an ERA of 5.62. The Mariners have lost 5 of his last 6 starts and Gilbert’s home ERA is nearly a full run higher than his road ERA at 4.04. Cleveland’s offense ranks higher in RPG, OPS, and batting average while striking out the least in MLB at just 7 per 9 innings. Seattle’s offense has been poor since the All Star break ranking 28th in batting average at .216 ahead of only Pittsburgh and Miami. That could spell trouble vs a Cleveland pitching staff that has really pitched well as of late allowing an average of just 2.6 RPG over their last 10. Prior to their somewhat lucky win last night, Seattle had lost 3 of their previous 5 games and while that may not seem like a big deal, those games were vs Washington & Oakland who have the 2 worst records in MLB. Cleveland gets the win tonight. |
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08-26-22 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers, Friday at 8 PM ET - These two just played a higher scoring series last week but those numbers were very deceiving as we has strong winds blowing out at Wrigley for 2 of those games. We know what happens when the wind blows out at Wrigley! The one game where the wind was not in play last week was a 5-2 Milwaukee win. The fact is, even with the other 2 games factored in (scores of 8-7 and 6-5) these 2 teams are simply bad right now offensively. Over the last 10 games Milwaukee is hitting .173 and Chicago is hitting .199. Over the last month Milwaukee’s bats rank 28th in batting average and the Cubs check in at 22nd. Both struggling offenses are facing pitchers performing at a high level right now. Chicago’s starter Steele has been nearly unhittable allowing 1 ER or fewer in 7 of his last 9 starting including not allowing a single ER in 4 of those starts. One of those starts was last week vs Milwaukee where he did not allow an ER in 6 innings of work. Not overly surprising as he is pitching lights out and the Brewers own the 2nd worst batting average in MLB vs lefties. Milwaukee starter Peralta has made 4 starts since returning from the DL and allowed just 7 ER’s combined in those outings. He faced the Cubs last week and gave up 2 ER’s in 6 innings pitched. Peralta’s overall ERA is 4.08 but he’s pitched much better than that with an xERA of 3.23 and a FIP of 3.07. Neither pitcher allows many HR’s with Peralta giving up just 4 this season in 57+ innings and Steele allowing only 7 round trippers in 113+ innings. We anticipate a low scoring game between these division rivals and we like the Under. |
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08-25-22 | White Sox v. Orioles OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
#911/912 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs – Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Both of the first 2 games in this series landed directly on 8 total runs but we expect this one to eclipse that number. In game 1 the O’s won 5-3 and the Sox won by the same score in game 2. Chicago alone has left 23 runners on base the last 2 games and the 2 teams have combined to leave 33 on base so far in this series. The 2 have combined to put 50 runners on base in the first 2 games of the series yet scored just 16 total runs. In other words, both teams have had LOTS of opportunities to score many more runs but the bounce of the ball has been rather unlucky. We say that changes tonight. Lance Lynn pitches for the White Sox and his road ERA is a hefty 6.39 and he has allowed 41 hits in just 31 innings of work away from home. He’s faced Baltimore once this season and allowed 5 ER’s in 6.2 IP. The Orioles will start Lyles who has an ERA of 4.61 on the season but his xERA is higher at 4.82. He’s also allowing opponents to hit .282 on the season which is the 2nd highest BA allowed of any pitcher on the board today. His lifetime ERA vs the White Sox is 5.56 in 6 appearances. We should also see some runs on the back end of this game as both bullpens have been struggling. The Sox bullpen ERA over the last 10 games is 6.55 and Baltimore sits at 4.28. Look for both teams to actually get some hits with runners on base today and this one rolls over 8 Runs. |
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08-24-22 | Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 RUNS St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs, 8 PM ET - These two teams split a double-header yesterday with one low scoring game and then producing 16 runs in the night cap. The Cubs won the day game 2-0 but St Louis had plenty of chances to score runs but they went 0-10 with runners in scoring position. Both pitching staffs allowed just 10 total hits in the game, but the Cubs were forced to use up their bullpen. In Game two the Cardinals broke open with 16 hits and cruised to a 13-3 win. We know the Cardinals are going to score runs here. They are hitting .310 as a team with 18 home runs and averaged 7 runs per game over their last ten games. In their last 15 games they have produced 95 total runs which is the most in the Major League over the last 15-days. St Louis should feast on Cubs pitcher Luke Farrell making his 2022 debut. Farrell didn’t “fare” well in Triple a with a 5.03 ERA in 11 starts. The Cubs will also contribute to this Over with this being the 4th time seeing Cardinal’s starter Miles Mikolas. Mikolas has a 4.15 ERA versus the Cubs this season and has allowed 20 hits in 17.1 innings of work. In the last 15-days the Cubs have scored 63 total runs or 4.2 runs per game. We expect plenty of runs in this one to push it well past the 8.5 runs. |
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08-23-22 | Mets v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
#919/920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – NY Mets vs NY Yankees, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We realize the Yankees have really been struggling offensively but we’ve seen some signs of life as of late. Yesterday they put up 4 runs in 6.2 innings on Mets ace Max Scherzer. They have now put up 4 runs in each of their last 2 games after doing so just once their previous 11 games. Still, the Yanks rank 2nd in MLB in scoring, 3rd in OPS, and 1st in HR’s on the season. They will be facing Walker on the mound for the Mets who has been struggling with back problems as of late and it’s showing in his performance. Over his last 5 starts Walker’s is almost 7.00 and he’s allowed 35 baserunners in 20 innings. The Mets offense also is among the best in MLB for the season ranking in the top 7 in RPG, OPS, and batting average. They are averaging 5.3 RPG this season vs right handers including 6 RPG over their last 10. Yankee pitcher Montas has been a disaster since coming over from Oakland allowing 14 ER’s in 14 innings pitched. He’s also allowed 24 baserunners during that 3 game stretch. The wind is blowing out tonight 5-10 MPH at Yankee Stadium and we look for double digit runs. Take the Over. |
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08-22-22 | Brewers v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
#958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Milwaukee Brewers, Monday at 10:10 PM ET - These 2 teams met in Milwaukee last week and split a 4 game series. We were on the Dodgers -1.5 vs Brewers and starting pitcher Lauer in that series lost with LA winning 2-1. The Brewers scored a late run in the bottom of the 8th to cover that run line but had only 4 hits in the process. The struggles continue at the plate for Milwaukee and now with LA at home and left hander Urias on the mound, we like them on the run line again tonight. The Brewers are hitting just .201 in the month of August which is the worst mark in MLB. Versus left handers, they are hitting .217 on the year which ranks them 29th out of 30 teams. This is a bad match up for a struggling offense facing Urias who is pitching at the top of his game right now. He faced Milwaukee last week and did not allow a run in 5 innings of work with the Dodgers winning 4-0. Urias has allowed just 3 ER’s in his last 31 innings spanning 5 starts. His control has been spot on striking out 29 and walking just 4 in that 5 game stretch. Current Milwaukee hitters have had 87 lifetime plate appearances vs Urias and their batting average is just .192. The Dodgers bats are officially back on track after sweeping Miami here over the weekend outscoring the Marlins 19-4 in the process. Yesterday they faced arguably the top starting pitcher in MLB, Sandy Alcantara, and shelled him for 10 hits and 6 runs in just 3 innings. As we stated above, they faced Milwaukee pitcher Lauer last week and won 2-1. We expect them to have more offensive success here at home where they average 5.3 RPG with a average winning margin of +2 RPG. Lauer’s numbers on the road drop off quite a bit as well with an ERA of 4.48 and a WHIP of 1.30. LA is now 43-15 at home this season and of those 43 wins, 37 have come by at least 2 runs. The Brewers are struggling as we said with a record of just 7-11 this month. They are coming off a huge rivalry series in Chicago in which the Cubs took 2 of 3 games. Now after playing yesterday in Chicago, they travel to the west coast while the Dodgers remain at home after their 3 game series with Miami. This one sets up nicely for an easy LA win. |
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08-21-22 | Brewers v. Cubs UNDER 7 | Top | 5-2 | Push | 0 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
#905/906 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 7 Runs – Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs, Sunday at 2:20 PM ET - After the wind was blowing out at Wrigley in the first 2 meetings of this series, today it’s blowing in at 10 MPH which obviously makes a huge difference. Cubs won 8-7 in game 1 and due to the wind it seemed every routine fly ball had a chance to go out – 5 HR’s in that game. Chicago also won yesterday’s game 6-5, however it was 3-3 after 9 innings and they scored 5 in extras. The 2 teams combined for only 9 hits prior to extra innings yesterday. Cubs send Steele to the mound who has been pitching very well. He has allowed 0 ER’s in 3 of his last 4 starts and over his last 10 he is giving up just 1.5 ER’s in 5+ innings per start. He has a 2.75 ERA in 4 starts vs Milwaukee this season and the Brewers offense struggles big time vs lefties with a batting average of .219 which ranks them 29th out of 30 MLB teams. Woodruff takes the mound for Milwaukee and he is sporting a 2.75 ERA over his last 12 starts. Since May 1st, he has 14 starts under his belt and he’s allowed 3 ER’s or fewer in 13 of those game. Lifetime vs current Cubs hitters, Woodruff has allowed a batting average of only .194. Steele has been even better vs current Milwaukee hitters allowing a batting average of just .183 lifetime. After these 2 combined for 7 HR’s over the first 2 meetings in this series, with the wind blowing in and 2 starters pitching at a very high level, the long ball will be tough today. Under in this one. |
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08-20-22 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 16-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs – St Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET - The St Louis bats are red hot and we expect that to continue tonight. The Cards are hitting just under .300 over their last 10 games while averaging over 6 RPG. On the season STL ranks 4th in RPG, 6th in batting average and 5th in OPS. They’ll be facing struggling left hander Bumgarner and STL owns the 3rd best batting average in the Majors vs lefties while averaging 5.6 RPG. Bumgarner has been shaky most of the season with an ERA of 4.37 but an xERA exceeding 5.00. Over his last 4 games his ERA is 7.33 and he has allowed 42 baserunners in just 23 innings during that stretch. He's had 14 career starts vs the Cardinals with an ERA of 5.23. Arizona will be facing Hudson on the hill for St Louis and he is their weakest starter. His ERA is 4.17 but his xERA is north of 5.00. Over his last 10 starts Hudson is averaging 5 IP per start while allowing 3.3 ER’s. On the road his ERA is 5.10 and he has allowed 86 baserunners in 55 innings. The DBacks bats have been a bit quiet over their last 5 but all were vs top of the line starters and Hudson is a big step down tonight. On the season Arizona is averaging 4.6 RPG at home and they’ve gone Over in 7 of their last 10 at Chase Field. These 2 combined to score 6 runs last night but had 16 hits which would normally equate to around 8 runs and 25 LOB and both teams starters had much better ERA’s than today’s pitchers. Both offenses play well tonight and this one goes Over 9 Runs. |
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08-19-22 | Astros +115 v. Braves | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
#929 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros +115 over Atlanta Braves, Friday at 7:20 PM ET - Rough situational spot for the Braves coming off their huge 4 game series with the Mets as those 2 battle it out for the NL East crown. Atlanta won 3 of those 4 games and now must face the team with the 2nd best record in MLB whose offense has been red hot. The Astros scored 21 runs yesterday vs the White Sox and they’ve scored the 2nd most runs in baseball since the All Star break behind only the Dodgers. Houston is hitting nearly .300 over their last 10 games while averaging over 7 RPG. Atlanta sends Wright to the mound and he’s had a very solid season but has been dealing with arm fatigue as of late. He’s already pitched over 134 innings which is by far the most in his career and Wright had to skip his last start due to a tired arm. In his last 3 starts his ERA is 4.34 which is much higher than his season ERA of 3.14. Houston will go with McCullers who has made 1 start since coming off the DL. That was a 6 inning outing in which he did not allow an earned run. He has been one of Houston’s top pitchers since 2015 with a lifetime ERA of 3.54 in 677 innings of work and he has struck out more than 1 batter per inning in his career. Once McCullers exits the Astros have the best bullpen in the Majors with an ERA of 2.91 on the season and the relievers have allowed a league low 25 HR’s this year. It’s not often we get a team like Houston as a money line underdog. They’ve been in that position only 15 times all year winning 7 of those games giving them the 5th best winning % as a dog this season. We like Houston on Friday night. |
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08-18-22 | Dodgers v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 9 m | Show |
#953/954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – LA Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET - We’ve had 3 low scoring games so far in this series and expect another here. These 2 have scored 16 total runs in 3 games in this series however 3 of those runs have come in extra innings. That means 13 runs scored in 3 games in regulation or barely 4 total runs per game. Minus the extra inning hits in game 2, these two have combined for just 28 total hits in 3 games. Milwaukee’s offense has been terrible over the last few weeks. Over their last 10 games their team batting average is .180 and they are averaging 2.8 RPG. As we stated in yesterday’s analysis (lost with LA run line despite Brewers scoring only 1 run – tough) the Brewers aren’t a great hitting team (23rd in batting average) so they rely heavily on HR’s to score. LA starter Heaney, who sports a 1.16 ERA on the season, has allowed 1 HR all year. He's also a lefty and Milwaukee really has problems vs south paws with a team batting average of .218 with is 29th in MLB. While LA came into this series red hot offensively, they’ve cooled off over their last 5 games with a batting average of only .216. In this series they are hitting just .192 over the first 3 games. Facing Milwaukee ace Burnes won’t help them here. He has a 2.39 ERA on the season and opponents are hitting .181 vs him. Both pitchers average right around 12 K’s per 9 innings which puts them near the top in that category. Two struggling offenses and lots of swings and misses today means another low scoring game. Under is the play. |
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08-17-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
#911 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Milwaukee Brewers, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are coming off a rare loss (in extra innings) last night and we like them to bounce back tonight. LA has been on a fantastic run winning 24 of their last 30 games and they’ve only lost back to back games twice since mid June. They have the 2nd best batting average in MLB since the All Star Break (3rd best on the season) and they’ve scored 156 runs during that stretch which is #1 in baseball, a full 27 runs more than Atlanta who has the 2nd most in that time. They were a bit unlucky last night as they outhit the Brewers 8-5 but lost 5-4 in 11 innings. Milwaukee was very fortunate to score 5 runs on only 5 hits as their bats continue to struggle. The Brewers have hit just .188 as a team over their last 10 games while barely averaging 3 RPG. Because they don’t hit for a high average, Milwaukee must hit HR’s to generate scoring and they are facing Dodger pitcher Gonsolin tonight who has allowed just 11 HR’s the entire season in 116 innings of work. He is 14-1 on the year with a WHIP of just 0.89 which is the 3rd best among starters in MLB. Gonsolin has allowed just 29 ER’s in 21 starts this season and Milwaukee doesn’t have a single player on their team that has more than 2 plate appearances life time vs him. LA has the 3rd best bullpen ERA when he exits so we look for Milwaukee to continue their offensive struggles. Lauer pitches for the Brewers and his numbers are solid with a 3.64 ERA, however his xFIP and xERA are both north of 4.00. Very few have been able to slow down this Dodgers offense averaging over 6 RPG since the break and we don’t expect Lauer to keep them in check today. LA has 80 wins on the season and amazingly 72 of those have come by at least 2 runs. Since the All Star Break they have 20 wins and all but 1 of came by 2 or more runs. Dodgers bounce back today and cover the -1.5 run line. |
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08-16-22 | Mets v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – NY Mets vs Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 7:20 PM ET - Atlanta took game 1 of this series with a 13-1 win last night. That was the 6th time these teams have met this month and they are averaging over 11 total runs scored in those games. These are 2 of the top offensive teams with each ranking in the top 9 in RPG, OPS, and batting average. Since the All Star Break the Mets rank #1 in batting average and Atlanta comes in at #5. As far as runs scored, these 2 teams rank 2nd and 3rd in MLB since the break only behind the Dodgers. Morton will start for Atlanta and he has been shelled in his 2 starts vs the Mets this season going 0-2 with a 7.59 ERA. Over his last 3 starts, Morton has an ERA of 4.58. Walker starts for the Mets and he has faced Atlanta once this season, just 11 days ago, and he last 1 inning giving up 8 ER’s. He has been struggling in general as of late allowing 16 ER’s over his last 4 starts in just 18.2 innings pitched. Over the last 10 games these offenses are both averaging around 5.5 RPG with a batting average well above their season averages. These 2 N.L. East rivals have met 13 times this season and the Over is 9-3-1. Hot temps in Atlanta tonight with the wind blowing straight out to center at 10+ MPH should be a perfect situation for a high scoring game. We like Over the total in this one. |
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08-15-22 | Padres -134 v. Marlins | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -134 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
#903 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres -135 over Miami Marlins, Monday at 6:40 PM ET - Both teams have high end starters going today but San Diego’s offense is far superior to Miami’s right now. The Marlins have been brutal at the plate for quite a long stretch now. They have scored 3 or fewer runs in 14 straight games and over their last 10 outings the Marlins are averaging 1.9 RPG. They have scored 2 runs or fewer in 19 of their las 32 games. Since the All Star Break Miami has scored a grand total of 59 runs in 24 games which is the lowest run total by a full 15 runs. The 2nd worst offense during that stretch is Washington and they have scored 74 runs. Musgrove goes for San Diego and he has had an all star season with a 2.91 ERA. On the road he has allowed just 52 hits in 65 innings pitched. In 4 career starts vs Miami he is 3-0 with a 2.19 ERA. The Marlins have Alcantara on the mound and he’s been very good as well this season. However he has allowed 4 ER’s in 2 of his last 3 starts and in his lone start vs SD this year the Padres hit him up with 7 baserunners and 3 runs in 4.2 innings. While Miami’s offense is bad right now, the Padres have scored 39 runs over their last 5 games while hitting .305 as a team. San Diego shouldn’t need to do much on offense to get the win here and we’ll lay the number with them on the road tonight. |
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08-15-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Reds | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
#901 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Cincinnati Reds, Monday at 6:40 PM ET - The Phillies were on a roll winning 12 of 13 games before they ran into the red hot Mets over the weekend and lost 2 of 3. Their offense came to a screeching halt vs the Mets, however they faced 3 top of the line starting pitchers in Scherzer (1.93 ERA), DeGrom (1.62 ERA), and Bassitt (3.27 ERA). Prior to their series with the Mets, they had average 5.4 RPG over their previous 16 games. We fully expect the Phillies offense to take off here vs Mike Minor who has been terrible. The left hander has won 1 game this season and his ERA is over 6.00. He had made 7 starts at home this season and the Reds have lost all 7 of those games by an average score of 6.6 to 2.6. All 7 of those losses came by at least 2 runs. Dating back to last season, Minor has allowed a whopping 44 HR’s in 122 innings pitched which is more than 3 per 9 innings. Bad news facing a Phillies offense that averages 1.3 HR’s per 9 innings which is good for 6th in the Majors. On top of that, Cincy has the worst bullpen ERA in MLB so not much help on the back end in this game. Philadelphia’s Syndergaard hasn’t been his dominating self since his Tommy John surgery a few years back but he has still been solid. He’s pitched just 2 games for Philadelphia after being traded from the LA Angels and his ERA on the season is a solid 3.96. He’s facing a Reds line up that has averaged just 2.9 RPG over their last 10 scoring 2 runs or fewer in 7 of those games. We like Philly to win this game by at least 2 runs. |
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08-14-22 | Brewers v. Cardinals -137 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show |
#960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis Cardinals -135 over Milwaukee Brewers, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - These 2 split the first 2 games of this crucial NL Central series with St Louis winning the opener 3-1 and Milwaukee bouncing back to win in 10 innings last night 3-2 despite only 4 hits. STL starter Wainwright flirted with a no hitter vs Milwaukee’s struggling offense but the Brewers hit a HR late (8th inning) to tie the game and sent it to extras. The Brewers are averaging just 3.8 RPG with a batting average of .220 over their last 10 games. Today they’ll face Mikolas who has been outstanding at home this year with an ERA of 2.48 and a WHIP of 0.88. He has allowed just 53 hits in 74 innings pitched at Busch Stadium this season. The Cards have won his last 5 starts at home and we expect another W today. Milwaukee starter Ashby has a record of 1-7 on the road this year with an ERA of 4.72 and a WHIP of 1.66. He’s allowed 92 baserunners in 54 innings pitched on the road this season. The lefty will face a STL line up that has been hot averaging 5.6 RPG while hitting .260 over their last 10 games. The Cards have the 3rd best batting average & OPS in the Majors vs lefties this season. At home they are averaging nearly 6 RPG this year vs left handed pitchers. STL has been very good at home this year winning 9 of their last 10, they are 15 games above .500 here, and their RPG margin at Busch Stadium is +1.2. We like St Louis to take the series finale today. |
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08-13-22 | Twins v. Angels +100 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
#930 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Angels +100 over Minnesota Twins, Saturday at 9:05 PM ET - The Twins took the opener last night 3-0 but the pitching match up today is heavily in favor of the host Angels. Left hander Detmers is on the mound for LA and he’s been fantastic as of late. The Angels feel he is a top of the rotation pitcher after taking him 10th overall in the 2020 draft and he showing glimpses of that ability. He threw a no hitter early in the year but struggled some after that and LA sent him down to the minors to work on a few things. Since being recalled, Detmers has made 5 starts allowing just 4 ER’s in 31 innings for an ERA of 1.16. Minnesota averages nearly a full RPG less vs lefties and they’ve never faced Detmers giving LA an edge here. Bundy, who pitched for the Angels last year, gets the start for Minnesota. He’s been up and down at best this year with an ERA of over 5.00. He’s been worse on the road where his ERA is 6.33 and Bundy has allowed 85 baserunners in just 59 innings pitched away from home this season. The bullpens are about dead even in this one but big advantage on the hill for the majority of the game as Detmers has thrown at least 90 pitches in each of his last 5 starts and we expect him to go at least 6 innings here. We don’t love LA’s offense obviously but they have been playing much better as of late winning 5 of their last 8 games. Minnesota is slightly above .500 on the season but they haven’t played great over the last month or so winning just 13 of their last 30 games. At basically even money we like the Angels tonight. |
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08-12-22 | Pirates v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
#962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Friday at 10:15 PM ET - Nice situational spot here for SF with their top starter on the mound. The Giants played in San Diego on Wednesday and had yesterday off after their short trip home. Pittsburgh was playing @ Arizona yesterday and tonight will be playing their 8th consecutive road game in 8 days. The Pirates are 2-5 so far on this road trip that has taken them from the east coast (Baltimore) to the west coast (Arizona and now SF). They are 17 games below .500 away from home with a losing margin of -1.5 runs per game. SF sends lefty Rodon to the mound and he has been fantastic at home this year. His ERA in home games is just 1.76 and he has struck out 73 batters in just 51 innings. That’s a problem for a Pittsburgh offense that has struck out an average of 9.5 per 9 innings ranking them 29th in MLB out of 30 teams. They’ve struck out 365 times this year vs left handers which is by far the worst in the Majors. Pittsburgh also ranks 29th in batting average vs lefties at .219. Rodon faced the Pirates once this season and went 8 innings, allowed 2 hits and 0 runs. Bryse Wilson starts for Pittsburgh and while he’s coming off a solid outing in his most recent start, his season long numbers aren’t great. His ERA is close to 6.00 and opposing hitters have a .298 batting average vs Wilson. He’s allowed 100 baserunners in just 66 innings this season and his HR allowed rate is quite high at 1.65 per 9 innings. Wilson barely averages 4 innings per game with his pitch count often in the 80’s and lower. That means Pittsburgh’s bad bullpen, which has the 4th worst ERA in the league, will get plenty of work here as well. SF has a losing record on the season but they are the only team below .500 that has + run differential so they are better than their record indicates. We like this spot for the Giants and look for a 2+ run win tonight. |
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08-11-22 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 8 | Top | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 3 h 50 m | Show |
#913/914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 8 Runs – Chicago White Sox vs KC Royals, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET - Dylan Cease starts for the Sox in this game and he has given up next to nothing this year. His ERA is 1.98 on the season and over his last 10 starts he’s allowed a total of 5 ER’s. He’s allowed just 2 ER’s over his last 31 innings for an ERA of 0.59. Cease has faced the Royals twice this season and he’s allowed 2 ER’s combined in those 2 starts. The KC offense ranks 24th in RPG and at home this season they are averaging just 3.6 RPG vs right handed pitchers. The Royals send Greinke to the hill and while he’s had some issues on the road this season, at home he’s been very good with an ERA of 2.23. He’s made 9 starts at home this season and allowed 2 ER’s or fewer in 8 of those. The Sox offense has gone south as of late scoring 3 runs or less in 6 of their last 7 games and they are averaging 3.5 RPG over their last 10. Since the All Star Break Chicago has scored a total of 68 runs ranking them 25th in MLB during that stretch. These 2 A.L. Central rivals are used to low scoring games with 12 of the last 15 meetings in KC going Under the Total and 20 of their last 26 overall staying Under. Low scoring today in KC. |
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08-10-22 | Cardinals v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 12 Runs – St Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET - This total opened 10.5 last night and was hammered up to 12 fairly quickly. Still not high enough in our opinion. Our total on this game is set at 12.9 so we still feel there is vale with the Over. These 2 combined for 21 runs on 30 hits last night. If we add in the walks, these 2 combined for 36 baserunners in 9 innings or a whopping 4 per inning! Tonight 2 lefties are headed to the mound with Quintana for St Louis and Freeland for Colorado. Both offenses excel vs south paws this season with the Cards averaging 5.45 RPG and the Rockies averaging 5.25 RPG (Colorado averages 7.34 RPG at home vs left handed pitchers). Factor in the altitude and the winds which will be blowing out to left at 10 to 15 MPH and we get not only the Coors Field factor but Coors Field Plus (wind) tonight. Quintana has pitched once at Coors this season when he was with Pittsburgh and the Rockies put up 13 runs in that game, he allowed 6 ER’s in 5 innings. Freeland has an ERA of 5.55 with a 1.60 WHIP at home this season for the Rockies. Colorado home games have averaged 11.25 total runs this year so while this seems high, it really isn’t when we factor in the weather and what we expect to be hot hitting line ups again tonight. Over 12 in this one. |
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08-09-22 | Marlins v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
#902 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Two teams heading in opposite directions here especially on offense. Over the last 10 games the Phillies have 9 wins and average 6.8 RPG. The Marlins have won 3 of their last 10 and they are averaging 2.3 RPG during that stretch. Miami has won just 6 of their last 20 games and 11 of their last 30. They have fallen completely out of the playoff race sitting at 10 games below .500. The Phils are right in the thick of things with a 60-48 record and have their ace on the mound today. Zack Wheeler has been lights out on the mound allowing 2 ER’s or fewer in 15 of his 20 starts this season. At home he’s been even better with an ERA of 1.58 and he’s allowed just 40 total hits in 64 innings of work at Citizens Bank Park. That’s a bad recipe for a Miami offense that has scored the fewest in MLB since the All Star Break at 44. Miami pitcher Garrett has solid overall numbers this season but his ERA was north of 5.00 in each of his last 2 seasons so he’s pitching above his head in our opinion. On the road this season he has an ERA of 4.23 and the Marlins have lost 4 of his last 6 starts away from home. He’s running into a Philadelphia offense that has the 4th best batting averaging since the All Star Break and they have scored the 5th most runs at 85, nearly double what Miami has scored since mid July. Over the last 10 games the Marlins have been outscored by an average of 2.3 – 3.6 (-1.3 RPG differential) while the Phillies have outscored their opponents 6.8 – 3.8 (+3.0 RPG differential). We like the Phillies to keep rolling and pick up an easy win here. |
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08-08-22 | Blue Jays v. Orioles UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 9.5 Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles, 7 PM ET - Toronto is one of the higher scoring teams in baseball, but the Orioles are not ranking 20th in runs/9 innings. The O’s rank 20th or worse in hitting, OPS and strikeouts per game. Toronto is playing their 7th straight road game and their offensive numbers are trending down as they’ve scored 3 or less runs in four of those away games. The Blue Jays have now stayed Under the Total in 7 of their last ten games with the total runs scored in those contests being an average of 7.40 run/9 innings. The last ten games involving the Orioles have averaged 7.30 runs/9 innings. Pitching will play an important part in this game too with Kikuchi slated to start for the Jays, Lyles for the O’s. In their last ten games the Orioles are hitting just .203 as a team against left-handed starters and scoring an average of 2.43 runs/9 innings. Toronto has recently struggled hitting right-handed starters with a .232 team average and 4.18 runs/9 innings. Kikuchi is coming off two solid outings with just 5 hits allowed and 3 earned runs in 9 innings of work. In the last five games he’s started the totals have all finished with 9 or less runs. Lyles has also pitched well in his last two starts, lasting 11.3 innings with 11 K’s, 1 earned run allowed and 10 total hits. This sets up to be a low scoring game. |
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08-07-22 | Yankees -123 v. Cardinals | Top | 9-12 | Loss | -123 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
#927 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Yankees -123 over St Louis Cardinals, Sunday at 2:15 PM ET - The Yankees are trying to prevent a 3 game sweep and we like them to get the win today. The Cards have won each of the first 2 games by just 1 run and NY has had more hits over the first 2 games despite their 2 tight losses. The Yanks have left 30 runners on base over the 2 losses. Frankie Montas takes the mound for NY after coming over from Oakland earlier this week. Montas was a bright spot for the down trodden A’s with an ERA of 3.18 and a batting average allowed of .231 on the season. He has not allowed more than 2 ER’s in a game since mid June. Despite pitching very well this season, Montas has a deceiving losing record due to Oakland’s inept offense. They averaged just 2.5 RPG in his 19 starts and the A’s were held to 1 run or less in over HALF of his starts this season (10). He has not faced a single player on the St Louis roster that has more than 8 career at bats vs him. He hasn’t faced the Cards this season and we like Montas to perform very well today. He’s backed up by the 2nd best bullpen in MLB in terms of ERA. Wainwright goes for St Louis today. He’s had a solid season but he’s not pitching as well as his ERA might indicate. His ERA is 3.11 yet his xERA is much higher at 4.40. He’s been a bit luck as well with a LOB% of over 80% on the season. The Cards have moved into 1st place in the NL Central but against teams that are over .500, their record is just 21-27. The Yankees, on the other hand, are 40-28 this season vs teams that have winning records. NY ranks 2nd in MLB averaging 5.3 RPG yet they’ve only scored 3 runs combined in the first 2 games of this series leaving lots of men on base as we discussed. We like them to break out offensively this afternoon. New York has not been swept in a 3 game series this season and we don’t expect it to happen today. |
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08-06-22 | Giants -1.5 v. A's | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
#981 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Oakland A’s, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET - San Fran was just swept by the red hot Dodgers and now they take a huge step down in competition facing Oakland who has the 2nd worst record in MLB and a run differential of -111 on the season. Rodon will start for SF and he’s been outstanding with an ERA of 3.00 but he’s actually pitching better than that number with an xERA of 2.77. He had 2 poor back to back outings coming out of the All Star Break but righted the ship in his most recent start holding the Cubs scoreless in 7 IP allowing just 2 hits. The lefty is facing an Oakland line up that ranks 29th or 30th in RPG, OPS, and batting average and vs southpaws at home this year the A’s are hitting just .189 and averaging 2.6 RPG. The Giants haven’t been hitting well over their last 10 games but nearly half of those games (4) came vs high level LA Dodger starting pitchers. They should look much better today vs Oakland starter Oller who has an ERA of 7.68, a WHIP of 1.73 and has the highest xFIP of any starting pitcher going today. Oller has bounced back and forth between starter and reliever this year. As a starter he’s been really bad allowing 30 ER’s in his 7 starts spanning 30 innings. He’s been his worst at home this year with an ERA of 9.00. Oakland is 17-34 at home this year and they are getting outscored by an average of 2 RPG! While SF does have a losing road record, they actually have a plus run differential away from home. We expect the A’s offense to struggle today while San Fran should be able to break out with a big game. Lay the -1.5 with the Giants. |
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08-05-22 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 RUNS Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers, 8:10PM ET - The Brewers are one of the higher scoring teams in baseball at 4.65 runs per game and average even more at home at 4.72. The Reds are slightly below average in runs per game at 4.32 which ranks 18th. The Reds pitching staff as a whole has not been good this season as they allow an average of 5.32 runs/9 innings and rank 29th in home runs allowed at 1.37. That’s significant considering the Brewers are 4th in home runs at 1.43 per game. Milwaukee is also below average in runs allowed per 9 innings at 4.37 which ranks 17th in MLB. On the season the Brewers have excelled versus right-handed pitching but in their last ten games they’ve been even better with a .298 average and 7.19 runs/9 innings. The same can be said for the Reds who have hit left-handed starters well all year but in their last ten games it’s been better yet with a .278 team average while scoring an average of 6.43 runs/9 innings. In the last 15 days the Brewers have scored 71 runs in 12 games (4th most) while Cincinnati has put up 59 total runs in 13 games (10th). The bet here is OVER the number. |
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08-04-22 | A's v. Angels UNDER 8 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 42 m | Show |
#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 8 Runs – Oakland A’s vs LA Angels, Thursday at 4:05 PM ET - We were on the under in this match up yesterday and cashed nicely as the A’s topped the Angels 3-1. These two AL West rivals have now met 9 times this season and only once have they totaled more than 8 runs. The average total runs scored in their 9 match ups this season is 5.66. The offenses are 2 of the worst in MLB. Oakland ranks 29th or lower out of 30 teams in RPG, OPS, and batting average and LA ranks 25th or lower in those 3 categories. Blackburn is on the mound tonight for the A’s and he’s been great on the road this season with a 1.74 ERA and he’s allowed just 51 hits in 68 innings away from home. He’s been a heavy ground ball pitcher this year at almost 50% which limits home runs and leads to lower scoring games. Junk, perfect name for a pitcher, is going for LA. He’s only pitched in 2 games this season but has looked very good. In his 1 start he went 5 innings, struck out 8 and did not allow an earned run. Oakland has never seen him before which gives him the edge in this game. Over the last 10 games, the Angels are averaging 6.8 total RPG and Oakland is averaging 7.7. Both bullpens have also been performing much better as of late compared to their season long stats. We think we’re in for another low scoring game this afternoon and we’re on the Under. |
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08-03-22 | A's v. Angels UNDER 7 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
#927/928 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Oakland A’s vs LA Angels, Wednesday at 9:35 PM ET - The Angels picked up a 3-1 win in last night’s game between these division rivals who have now played 8 times this season. In those 8 meetings they’ve topped 8 runs just 1 time and their average total runs scored when these 2 meet is 5.8. That’s understandable as both offenses rank near the bottom of MLB in most key categories. Oakland ranks 29th or lower out of 30 teams in RPG, OPS, and batting average and LA ranks 25th or lower in those 3 categories. Oakland had a solid run coming out of the All Star break but they’ve now been held to 2 runs or less in 3 straight games. LA is averaging just 3.7 RPG over their last 10 outings. Ohtani gets the call for the Angels and he’s pretty much shut down everybody. His ERA 2.81 and his xERA is even lower at 2.48. He’s also been a strike out machine averaging over 13 per 9 innings pitched. He has not faced Oakland this year giving him a leg up in this meeting. The A’s will go with Kaprielian who’s numbers aren’t as gaudy with a 4.50 ERA, however opponents are hitting just .227 vs him and he has been on his game as of late. Over his last 4 starts, Kaprielian has allowed a total of 4 ER’s in 22 innings of work. He has allowed just 23 baserunners in that 22 inning span. He has also not faced the Angels this season which gives him an advantage in our opinion. Historically both pitchers have been very solid vs the opposing hitters on these teams with Kaprielian allowing a batting average of .156 while Ohtani has allowed a BA of only .114. Another low scoring affair here and we like the UNDER in this one. |
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08-02-22 | Brewers -1.5 v. Pirates | 3-5 | Loss | -143 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
#957 ASA PLAY ON 8* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-145) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Brewers have been red hot since the All Star break with a 7-2 record. The bats have come alive as they are averaging 6.3 RPG since the break scoring at least 6 runs in 6 of those 9 games. No reason to think that slows down here facing a Pirates team with Wilson on the mound. Wilson has started 10 games this season, he has 1 win and his ERA at home is 8.20. In his 20 innings pitched at home this year he has allowed 34 baserunners for a WHIP if 1.82. The Pirates have the 3rd worst record in MLB and since the All Star break they have won just 1 of their 9 games and that was a 1-0 win. Unlike the Brewers, the Pirates offense has been poor all season ranking 28th or lower in RPG, OPS, and batting average, but even worse since the break. They are hitting just .211 as a team, averaging 3 RPG and they’ve been held to 2 runs or less in 7 of their 9 games since the All Star break. Facing Milwaukee’s ace Burnes won’t help them break out of that slump tonight. Burnes has been top notch all season but especially on the road where his ERA 1.57 and he’s allowed just 35 hits in 58 innings of work! One of those road games came here @ Pittsburgh on July 1st when Burnes went 6 innings and allowed just 1 hit in a 19-2 Milwaukee win. Burnes leads the N.L. in strike outs and the Pittsburgh offense averages 9.6 K’s per 9 innings which is the 2nd worst in the Majors. In his 2 starts vs Pittsburgh this season, both Milwaukee wins, Burnes has pitched 13 innings, allowed 3 ER’s and struck out 15. We like the Brewers on the run line in this one. |
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08-01-22 | Mets -1.5 v. Nationals | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
#903 ASA PLAY ON 8* NY Mets -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Washington Nationals, Monday at 7 PM ET - The Mets are on a roll coming into this one winning 6 straight games which included a 2 game sweep of the Yankees. During that 6 game stretch NY is averaging 6 RPG and they’ve outscored their opponents 36 to 17. The Nats are coming off a home series vs the Cardinals in which they lost 2 of 3 games and were outscored 17-9. Washington has the worst home record in MLB at 16-38 and their average score at home is 3.7 to 5.3. Of their 38 home losses, 28 have come by 2+ runs. Tonight they face NYM ace Scherzer who has 5 starts since returning from the DL and has allowed 5 total earned runs in those 5 starts. In his most recent start last week he didn’t allowed an ER in 7 strong innings vs the NYY who lead the league in runs scored. Mets have 2nd most road wins in MLB with 33 and their red hot line up will be facing Patrick Corbin tonight. Corbin is 4-14 on the season with an ERA of 6.49 with an opponents batting average allowed of .323. He’s been even worse as of late with an ERA of 13.50 over his last 3 starts allowing 28 baserunners in 12 innings! Corbin has faced the Mets 3 times this season and NY has won all 3 of those games by a combined score of 19-3. These 2 NL East rivals have already faced off 10 times this season with the Mets winning 8 of those games, all by 2 or more runs. They’ve outscored the Nationals 58-24 in those 10 meetings. While the Mets are pushing for an NL East title, the Nats have a number of players that could be traded in the next few days so distractions are many in Washington. The Mets roll again tonight and we’ll lay the 1.5 runs. |
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07-31-22 | Twins v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 runs Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres, 4:10 PM ET - Nine runs will get us a win in this contest and our predictive analytics suggest 10 or more total runs in this series finale. It starts with the pitchers for both teams as the Twins send right-handed Dylan Bundy to the hill with the Padres countering with lefty Sean Manaea. Bundy is 6-4 on the season with a 5.02 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. In his last five starts he has two wins and three no decisions but has allowed 15 earned runs on 27 hits in 24.1 innings of work. Historically, Bundy hasn’t been great, sporting an ERA over 4.79 in four of his last five seasons. The Padres have scored 4 or more runs in five of their last six games and hit .235 versus righties this season scoring an average of 4.27 runs/9 innings. Minnesota is on an 8-1 Over streak as a result of scoring or allowing runs depending on the day. The Twins have scored 4 or more runs themselves in 5 of their last seven games and have allowed 4+ in 5 of six. Minnesota has ripped left-handed pitchers in their last ten games by hitting .274 as a team and producing 5.89 run/9 innings in that span. It all adds up to a high scoring game today. BET OVER! |
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07-30-22 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 8 Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros, 7:10 PM ET - It all starts with pitching in this match up and it features two solid starters with Chris Flexen for Seattle and Framber Valdez. Valdez is 9-4 on the season with a miniscule 2.74 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He’s a solid strikeout pitcher with 110 K’s this season in 121.2 innings of work. In his last start he faced this same Seattle team and went 6.2 innings with 8 strikeouts, 8 hits and 3 earned runs which all came in the 6th. The Mariners will send Flexen to the mound who is 7-8 on the season with a 3.75 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. He's allowed just 3 earned runs in his last three starts in 15.2 innings of work. Flexen faced this Houston team in June and allowed 2 earned runs on 5 hits in 6.2 innings of work. We expect two quality starts for both of these pitchers and then they’ll turn it over two a pair of the best bullpens in MLB. The Astros have the #1 ranked bullpen in terms of ERA at 2.72, Seattle is 11th at 3.61. Seattle is scoring just 3.35 runs/9 innings in their last ten games; Houston is scoring 4.22 run/9 innings their last ten games against right-handed pitchers. The Under has cashed 7 of the last ten meetings. Bet UNDER! |
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07-29-22 | Cubs +127 v. Giants | Top | 4-2 | Win | 127 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Chicago Cubs +125 vs. San Francisco Giants, 10:15 PM ET - We like the pitching matchup and the Cubs as a dog in this setting. The Cubs went into the All-Star Break with a win, then proceeded to cash in five straight games after the break before losing 2-4 last night. The Giants on the other hand had lost seven games in a row prior to last night’s win. In each teams last ten games the Cubs have a net run differential of +1 run per game, while the Giants are a negative -1.8 runs per game. Overall, the Cubs have faired slightly better against right-handed pitchers than the Giants have but in their last ten games the difference is drastically in favor of Chicago. In their last ten games the Giants are hitting just .188 as a team versus righties and producing 3.40 runs/9 innings. The Cubs on the other hand are hitting .254 as a team in their last ten against right-handed pitchers. Chicago will send Marcus Stroman to the bump today who is 2-5 on the season with a 4.69 ERA but a solid 1.15 WHIP. He’s had two really bad outings this season against St Louis and Tampa Bay where he allowed 9 and 7 earned runs but other than that he’s been solid. In his last three starts he hasn’t earned a decision but has allowed just 2 total earned runs, 8 hits in 14.1 innings of work. Cobb is 3-4 on the season with a 4.26 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. In his four most recent games he has one solid outing against the Brewers but has allowed 10 earned runs and 20 hits. We like Chicago in this game and expect a solid win by the visitor. |
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07-28-22 | Guardians -113 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
#915 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Guardians -115 over Boston Red Sox, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET - The Sox have fallen off a cliff in July and they’ve dropped to last place in the AL East. They’ve won only 6 of their 24 games this month and Cleveland has taken 2 of the first 3 in this series. The Guardians have outhit Boston in all 3 games of this series (+10 hits in the series) despite their 1 loss. Over the last 10 games, Boston is hitting .215 and averaging just 3.6 RPG. During that stretch they have lost by an AVERAGE of 5.8 runs per game and they’ve had 52 fewer hits than their opponents! We don’t look for that struggling offense to get right tonight vs Cleveland’s red hot Tristan McKenzie who has allowed a total of 1 ER in his last 4 starts spanning 26.2 innings. Opponents are hitting just .197 this season off McKenzie which is bad news for a Boston offense that is hitting just .235 this month. McKenzie is backed by a strong bullpen that ranks 10th in MLB in ERA. Cleveland, on the other hand, has been red hot at the plate averaging over 6 RPG while hitting over .300 as a team their last 10 games. For the month of July, the Guardians have the 3rd best batting average in the Majors at .275. They’ll be facing Crawford who has appeared in 14 games this season but has made only 5 starts. Crawford has only made 15 career appearances (1 last year) and his lifetime ERA in the Majors in those appearances is 5.32. Unlike Cleveland who has a solid bullpen, the Sox rank 25th in reliever ERA so when Crawford exits we don’t expect Boston to shut down this red hot Guardian offense. This is a short money line in our opinion and we’ll grab Cleveland tonight. |
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07-27-22 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 2 h 9 m | Show |
#951/952 ASA PLAY ON Over 9 Runs – Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies, Wednesday at 12:35 PM ET - These 2 NL East rivals have already met 9 times this season and they’ve scored an average of 9.8 RPG in those meetings. Yesterday they hit 9 total runs with two of their top pitchers facing off with Nola for Philly and Strider for Atlanta. Today we have Gibson on the hill for the Phillies and he has struggled allowing at least 5 ER’s in 3 of his last 5 starts and his ERA this season is 4.69. He’s been susceptible to the HR this year allowing 1.25 per 9 innings and he’s facing an Atlanta line up that ranks 2nd in MLB averaging 1.55 HR’s per 9 innings. Braves hitters have had their way historically with Gibson with a batting average of .317 over 111 plate appearances. Philly will face Charlie Morton who has been pitching well but has struggled vs this team. In his 1 outing vs Philadelphia this season Morton allowed 2 ER’s in 5.2 innings of work but was rather fortunate as he allowed 11 baserunners in that game. Philadelphia batters have a lifetime average of .303 vs Morton over 142 plate appearances. He’s also been much better at home compared to on the road where his ERA is 4.59 with a WHIP of 1.37. The Braves have totaled at least 9 runs in each of their last 10 games with 9 of those going Over the total. Both offenses are among the best in the Majors ranking in the top 7 in RPG and HR’s per 9 innings. Weather looks perfect for a high scoring game with temps in the 80’s and light winds blowing straight out to center field. Over 9 is the play here. |
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07-26-22 | White Sox v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 10.5 Chicago White Sox @ Colorado Rockies, 8:40 PM ET - The Rockies are obviously one of the higher scoring teams in baseball at 4.61 runs per game and much of that is due to their home field where they average 5.88 runs per game. The White Sox are currently 16th in runs/9 innings on the year but have improved dramatically in the last 30-days by producing 129 total runs in 25 games. In fact, the Chi Sox averaged just 3.66 runs/per 9 innings on June 1st but now produce 4.41 on the season. Today the starting pitchers are Kopech for the Sox and Marquez for the Rockies. Kopech is 3-6 on the year with a 3.36 ERA but his XERA moving forward is 5.04. Kopech has allowed 32 hits in his last 30.4 innings pitched allowing 20 earned runs. Marquez is 6-7 on the year with a 5.47 ERA and he’s been hit pretty hard in his last four starts giving up 13 earned runs, 20 hits in 22.3 innings of work. This total is high for a reason…BET OVER! |
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07-25-22 | Astros v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8 runs Houston Astros vs. Oakland A’s – 9:40 PM ET - We are betting the value here and Over 8 runs. These same two teams and pitchers just met in Houston in mid-July and the Over-Under on the game was 8.5. The game featured 16 total hits with 18 men left on base and finished with 7 runs. Oakland owns one of the worst offenses in baseball this season ranking 27th or worse in home runs, OPS, Average and runs/9 innings but they’ve been much better of late. In their last five games overall, the A’s are hitting .251 as a team and scoring 4.93 runs per game. Oakland’s last five games have averaged 9.20 total runs per game. Houston is in the top half of the league in most key offensive categories including runs/9 innings (4.53), OPS, rank 3rd in home runs and 3rd in fewest strikeouts per game. The A’s will send Adam Oller to the hill who is a starter/reliever and in the games he’s started he is 0-3 with an ERA over 8.5. In his last four starts he’s given up 22 hits, 18 earned runs in 17.2 innings of work. Jake Ordorizzi is 4-2 on the year with a 3.56 ERA for the Astros which are solid numbers but the A’s are seeing him for the third time this season so the hitters should have an edge. Bet the value and OVER here. |
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07-24-22 | Angels v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 29 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* RUN LINE BET: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-105) vs. LA Angels, 1:35 PM ET - The Braves have the 5th best total run differential in the Majors at +84 total runs on the season, the Angels are 22nd at minus -42 total runs. When playing on the road the Angels have an average run differential of -.96 runs per game, again one of the worst numbers in baseball. L.A. ranks 25th in runs per 9/innings overall at 3.99, 26th in team average at .229, 27th in OPS and strikeout more than any team in the Bigs. Their away numbers are even worse and if we look at their most recent ten games, we see they are scoring just 2.70 runs per 9/innings and hitting .199 as a team. Los Angeles will have a very tough time scoring runs in this contest against Ian Anderson who is 8-5 on the season with a 4.79 ERA. Anderson has pitched well in his last two starts allowing just 3 earned runs in 10.1 innings of work. Prior to his two solid outings he lost two games but those were against the Phillies and Dodgers who are two of the higher scoring teams in the Majors. The Braves offense is one of the best in the Biz with a team average of .248 (10th), an On Base Percentage of .758 (4th), they rank 5th in runs per 9/innings and are 2nd in home runs per game. An added bonus to today’s game is the fact they are facing the left-handed starter Reid Detmers for the Angels who is 2-3 on the year with a 4.11 ERA, 0-1 on the road. The Braves are one of the better hitting teams off lefties this season at .257, but in their last ten games against southpaws they are scoring 7.02 runs/9 innings and hitting .290. The Braves are 33-20 SU at home and may only need 4 runs to cover this spread considering the lack of hitting by the Angels. |
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07-23-22 | Angels v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* RUN LINE BET: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-105) vs. LA Angels, 7:20 PM ET - The Braves have the 5th best total run differential in the Majors at +79 total runs on the season, the Angels are 21st at minus -37 total runs. When playing on the road the Angels have an average run differential of -.94 runs per game, again one of the worst numbers in baseball. L.A. ranks 25th in runs per 9/innings overall at 3.99, 26th in team average at .229, 27th in OPS and strikeout more than any team in the Bigs. Their away numbers are even worse and if we look at their most recent ten games, we see they are scoring just 2.70 runs per 9/innings and hitting .199 as a team. Los Angeles will have a very tough time scoring runs in this contest against Kyle Wright who is 11-4 on the season with a 2.95 ERA. Wright is 7-1 in his last 9 starts with one no decision and is one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball with 107 on the year. The Braves offense is one of the best in the Biz with a team average of .248 (10th), an On Base Percentage of .758 (4th), they rank 5th in runs per 9/innings and are 2nd in home runs per game. An added bonus to today’s game is the fact they are facing the left-handed starter Patrick Sandoval for the Angels who is 3-4 on the year with a 2.95 ERA, but hasn’t pitched well of late allowing 21 hits in his last 16.1 innings of work. The Braves are one of the better hitting teams off lefties this season at .257, but in their last ten games against southpaws they are scoring 7.02 runs/9 innings and hitting .290. The Braves are 32-20 SU at home and may only need 4 runs to cover this spread considering the lack of hitting by the Angels. |
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07-22-22 | Rockies v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* RUN LINE Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) vs. Colorado Rockies, 8:20 PM ET - Milwaukee limped into the All-Star Game having lost three straight games to the Giants and 4 of their last five overall. The break came at a good time for Milwaukee, and we expect a renewed effort here at home in the opener of this series with the Rockies. The Brewers send their Ace to the mound with Corbin Burnes who is 7-4 on the season with a 2.14 ERA and miniscule .90 WHIP. Colorado will have a tough time getting men on base versus Burnes who has 144 strikeouts on the season, just 29 walks and 12 home runs. Colorado has solid overall offensive numbers on the season but much of that is due to their home field where they average 5.88 runs per game and hit .287 as a team. On the road though the numbers are drastically different for the Rockies. Colorado hits just .233 on the road and score 3.02 runs per game which is the second-lowest number in baseball. The Rockies also hit just .212 against right-handed pitchers on the road and score even fewer runs/9 innings at 2.75. Milwaukee is the 12th highest scoring team in baseball at 4.57 runs/9 innings and do it with the long-ball ranking 4th in the Majors in home runs. The Brewers hit 1.38 home runs per game at home which is the 4th highest number in MLB. Milwaukee should get plenty of scoring opportunities versus Antonio Senzatela who is 3-5 on the year with a 4.95 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. He’s been even worse on the road at 0-3 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. Senzatela is expected to see his pitching statistics worsen with an xERA of 5.92 and xFIP of 4.27 which are both higher than his current numbers. The moneyline is out of the question here but the Run Line is in the wheelhouse at -1.5 (-125). |
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07-21-22 | Tigers v. A's UNDER 7.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 7.5 RUNS Detroit Tiger @ Oakland A’s (Game 1) 3:37 PM ET - We are playing UNDER the total in the first game of the doubleheader between the Tigers and A’s today. These two teams possess the worst scoring offenses in the Majors with the Tigers ranking 30th in runs/9 inning at 3.24, 27th in team batting average at .229, 29th in OPS and 30th in homeruns. It’s been even worse for the Tigers in their most recent ten games as they’ve managed just 2.70 runs/9 innings. The A’s are right there with Detroit as they rank 29th in runs per 9 innings at 3.38, 30th in team average at .211, 30th in OPS and 29th in homeruns. In their last ten games the A’s have a higher run production at 4.01 but they had an anomaly game of 14 runs in that stretch versus Texas. Detroit starter Skubal is 6-8 on the year with a 4.11 ERA but his expected ERA (XERA) is lower at 3.36 and he owns an XFIB of 3.28 meaning he’s pitching better overall than his numbers would indicate. Zach Logue is slated to start today for the A’s and the lefty should have a solid day against this Tiger lineup. Logue was just called up on July 9th and pitched well against Houston with 5 solid innings, 3 hits and 2 earned runs. There is a real possibility one of these teams don’t score a run considering how bad they are offensively so the Under is the bet here. |
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07-17-22 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers, 2:35 PM ET - We expect both teams to put up runs early and often in this match up with a pair of sub-par starters taking the hill. Seattle will send Chris Flexen to the bump, the Rangers counter with Glenn Otto. These two starters have average overall numbers on the season but of today’s starters they have two of the worst XERAs and XFIPs which tells us they have pitched slightly better than they are both expected to in the future. Otto has a 5.81 XERA while Flexen is 5.08. These two teams had 17 hits yesterday but only managed 5 total runs. In the opener of the series, they produced 23 hits and scored 11 total runs. The Mariners offense is below average on the season ranking 24th in runs per/9 innings at 4.17, but in their last ten games they are scoring a full run more at 5.26. Texas ranks 12th in runs/9 innings on the season at 4.57 but in their last ten games they’ve improved that number to 5.30. Combined these two teams are on a 13-7 Over streak. Based on the starting pitching, the bullpen use in the first two games and how the teams are producing runs, we like OVER here! |
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07-16-22 | Orioles v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 7.5 Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays, 4 PM ET - We get two hot hitting teams squaring off today in what should be a run-fest for both teams. Over the course of the last fifteen days the Rays are the 3rd highest hitting team in the Bigs, the O’s are 9th. Over that same time span the Rays have produced 76 runs *4th) while Baltimore has scored 59 (14th). Overall for the season, the O’s are averaging 4.22 run/9 innings while Tampa Bay is averaging 4.24. In their last ten games both teams run production is even higher with Baltimore scoring an average of 5.42 runs/9 innings, Tampa Bay 4.81. Baltimore starting pitcher Dean Kremer has impressive numbers on paper at 3-1 with a 2.15 ERA but we expect to see him start to regress as his XFIP of 4.65 is a better indicator of where he stands overall as a pitcher. His counterpart today is Ryan Yarbrough for the Rays who has the second highest XFIP on the board today of 5.76. Yarbrough is 0-4 on the season with a 5.82 ERA. This number is lower than it should be so grab the value with the OVER! |
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07-15-22 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9 Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins, 8 PM ET - These two teams just pounded out a combined 28 hits yesterday in the Sox 12-2 win and with both hitters seeing the ball well we expect another high scoring game here. In fact, these teams have squared off seven times already this season and every game, but one has seen 9 or more runs scored. The last time the Twins faced Kopech they pounded him for 8 hits and 6 earned runs in 4.2 innings of work. The right-handed Kopech has 2 no-decisions and 4 losses in his last six starts. In his last five outings he’s given up 27 total hits and 18 earned runs in 25.4 innings of work. The Twins offense is 11th in the league in runs/9 innings, 7th in average, 5th in OPS and 9th in home runs. The White Sox have hit well all season with the 4th best team batting average, but it hasn’t translated to runs where they rank 17th. Chicago has seen their run production go up dramatically in recent weeks though as they have scored 77 total runs in their last 15 games which is the second highest number in the Majors behind only the Yankees. In their last ten games they are hitting .310 as a team against lefties and scoring 5.51 runs/9 innings. Those numbers are significant considering they will see the Twins left-handed starter Devin Smeltzer who is 4-2 on the year with a 3.92 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Smeltzer has allowed 11 total earned runs in his last three starters along with 18 hits in 15.1 innings of work. In his most recent outing, he was shelled for 8 hits and 7 earned runs against Texas. |
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07-14-22 | Mariners v. Rangers -118 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
#972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -120 over Seattle Mariners, Thursday at 8 PM ET - Seattle has been red hot but this is a terrible spot for them and we’ll fade the M’s tonight. They played a doubleheader yesterday in Washington including a game last night followed by travel to Texas. In their 2-1 win last night, the Mariners went with a bullpen game using 5 pitchers with none lasting more than 3 innings. In their first game of the DH yesterday, Seattle used 4 different relievers so their bullpen is a bit stretched for tonight’s game. They will go with Gonzalez as their starting pitcher tonight and he has been overvalued all season. His ERA is 3.24 but his xERA is 4.64 and his xFIP is 4.99 which is the third highest of any starting pitcher today. The M’s have won only 6 of his 17 starts this season. He’s facing a Texas line up that has been very good all season vs left handed pitchers. The Rangers are averaging 5.9 RPG this season and 6 RPG at home vs lefties. Gonzalez has faced Texas twice this season, the Rangers won both games and scored 9 total runs in his 11.2 innings pitched. While Seattle is in a tough travel spot, Texas will be playing their 7th straight home game and they are 4-2 thus far on their home stand. They will send lefty Perez to the mound. We look for him to bounce back after a rare poor outing vs Minnesota in his most recent start. For the season Perez has an ERA of 2.72 and in his only performance vs Seattle this year he allowed 2 ER’s in 6 innings pitched. Unlike Texas, the Mariners have not been good vs southpaws this season ranking 23rd in MLB with a .235 batting average. Seattle’s run comes to an end tonight in Texas. Take the Rangers |
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07-13-22 | Astros v. Angels UNDER 7 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
#919/920 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 7 Runs – Houston Astros vs LA Angels, Wednesday at 9:35 PM ET - Yesterday these 2 scored 11 runs with Houston winning 6-5 but the 2 teams combined for only 10 hits which normally would equate to around 5 runs. Nearly half of the runs scored yesterday (5) came in the final 3 innings and only 6 of the 11 runs were actually earned runs. Tonight we anticipate a very low scoring game with 2 outstanding starters on the mound. Ohtani goes for the Angels and he’s been absolutely unhittable as of late. He’s allowed just 2 ER’s in his last 34 innings and he’s allowed a total of 18 baserunners during that stretch! He hasn’t faced LA yet this season but his historical numbers are very good allowing a batting average of .188 lifetime vs current Angel hitters. Houston goes with Javier tonight and he faced LA on July 1st and allowed a total of 1 baserunner in 7 innings pitched. Opponents are hitting just .176 vs Javier this season and he’s facing an LA lineup that has been terrible as of late with a batting average of .177 over their last 10 games. The LA offense has put up more than 4 runs only twice in their last 15 games. Both starters are big strikeout pitchers with each averaging over 12 K’s per 9 innings. If you combine their stats on the season, Ohtani & Javier are averaging 25 K’s per 9 innings and just 5 walks. This one should be low scoring. |
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07-12-22 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 0-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
#960 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 9:45 PM ET - The Giants lost the series opener last night 4-3 and we expect a bounce back here with their top starter on the mound. Logan Webb has been very solid all season for the Giants with an ERA of 2.98 and he has allowed more than 3 ER’s just twice in his 17 starts. He’s been better at home with an ERA of 2.63 and he’s pitching outstanding right now with an ERA of 1.80 over his last 3 starts. Arizona’s offense has been solid over their last 10 games (despite 4-6 record) but they’ve faced only 1 starter during that stretch with an ERA of less than 4.00. We expect Arizona’s hitters to struggle tonight finally facing a top of the line starter. The Giants offense, on the other hand, should have a field day facing Dallas Keuchel. He has been terrible all season showing zero signs of a potential turn around. Keuchel has an ERA of 7.63 and opposing hitters have a batting average of .322 vs him. Not only are teams hitting the ball hard off him he’s also walking nearly 5 batters per 9 innings which has pushed his WHIP on the season to almost 2.00. On the road he’s been a trainwreck with an ERA of 11.81 and he’s allowed an absolutely ridiculous 38 baserunners in just 16 innings! SF ranks 5th in MLB in RPG and they are averaging over 5 RPG vs left handers this season. The Giants should rake offensively facing Keuchel until he turns the game over to the 8th worst bullpen (ERA) in MLB. Despite last night’s tight loss, San Francisco has dominated this series at home winning 17 of the last 21 meetings. We like them to win this one by 2+ runs. |
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07-11-22 | Mets v. Braves UNDER 7 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 105 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
#905/906 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 7 Runs – NY Mets vs Atlanta Braves, Monday at 7:20 PM ET - Both teams have their top starters on the mound tonight and we expect a low scoring battle. Scherzer came back from a stint on the DL on July 5th to make a start vs Cincinnati. He looked like he hadn’t missed a beat allowing just 2 hits and 0 ER’s in 6 IP. He racked up 11 strike outs in those 6 innings. On the season opponents are hitting just .198 vs Scherzer and he’s allowed only 48 total baserunners in 57+ innings. He has not faced Atlanta yet this season. Lefty Fried takes the hill for Atlanta and he’s been just as impressive. His ERA on the season is 2.52 and he’s allowed just 4 ER’s in his last 4 starts. Fried also has not allowed a HR since June 9th and is giving up just 0.50 HR’s per 9 innings this season. The Mets have struggled vs lefties this year averaging just 3.79 RPG on the road with a batting average of .239 overall vs southpaws. In his only meeting vs NY this year, Fried allowed 2 ER’s in 6 innings. Both are high strikeout pitchers and both walk only 1.5 batters per 9 innings so we look for very few baserunners tonight. Each bullpen ranks in the top 10 (Atlanta 4th & NYM 10th) so when the starters do exit we should be OK. These 2 NL East rivals have met 4 times this year and averaged just 7.5 total RPG in those meetings. With their top starters going here, we look for another pitcher’s duel. |
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07-10-22 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* HOUSTON ASTROS Run Line -1.5 (even) vs. Oakland A’s, 4 PM ET - This is as much a play against the A’s as it is a play on the Astros. Oakland is the worst offense in baseball ranking last in runs/9 innings, team average (.209), OPS and are 29th in home runs per game. This A’s team averages just 3.26 runs per game on the season and only 2.90 runs per game their last ten. They will face Jake Orduzzi who is coming off a bad outing against the hot-hitting Royals but expect a better start here versus this pathetic offense. In their last ten games the A’s are hitting just .197 against right-handed starters and scoring an average of 3.21 runs/9 innings in that span. Houston should bounce back here and have been “money” when coming off a loss winning 72% of their games by an average of +1.5 runs per game. Houston is +11 total hits in the two games of this series and will put up runs in this one. The Astros have the 11th best scoring offense in MLB at 4.57 runs/9 innings, rank 16th in team batting average, 4th in OPS and 3rd in homeruns. The Astros should put up runs versus the left-handed Cole as Houston is hitting .284 versus Lefties their last ten games, scoring 6.20 runs/9 innings. In their last ten games overall, the Astros are outscoring their opponents by 2.80 runs/9 innings. Fade the horrible hitting A's in this one and back a Houston team that can dominate at the plate. |
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07-09-22 | Angels v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 8.5 L.A. Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles, 4 PM ET - The Angels are struggling at the plate right now with a .200 team batting average their last five games and an average of 2.60 runs/9 innings. Going back even further the Angels are hitting just .190 their last ten games and averaging 2.70 runs/9 innings. L.A. is 25th in runs scored per 9 innings this season, 25th in hitting, 18th in OPS and as a team they strike out 9.82 times per game which is last in the Bigs. It won’t come easy today for the struggling Angel hitters facing Dean Kremer who is 2-1 on the season with a 2.48 ERA and 129 WHIP. The right-handed Kremer should shut down an Angels lineup that is hitting .195 as a team against righties in their last ten games. Baltimore doesn’t have great overall numbers on the season with an offense that is 22nd in runs/9 innings at 4.20, 27th in team batting average at .231 25th in OPS and 27th in strikeouts. Baltimore will have a tough time producing runs against the left-handed starter Sandoval for the Angels who is 3-3 on the year with a 3.09 ERA. The O’s are hitting just .194 and scoring 2.60 runs/9 innings against Lefties their last ten games. Combined these two teams are on a 6-11 Under streak with both teams averaging below 8 total runs per game in their last ten. |
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07-08-22 | Guardians v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
#973/974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Cleveland Guardians vs KC Royals, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - We really like the way KC’s offense is performing right now. They just scored 22 runs in a 4 game series (5.5 RPG) vs Houston who has the best pitching staff in MLB right now. Over their last 10 games the Royals are hitting nearly .270 vs right handed pitchers and their games have averaged 9.7 total runs during that stretch. They’ll face Civale for Cleveland who has an ERA of 7.40 and opposing hitters have a batting average of .296. He’s been really poor in his 5 road starts this season with an ERA of almost 10.00! In his 5 road starts, the opponents have scored a total of 42 runs which is an average of 8.4 RPG. The Guardians are coming off a 4 games series in which they were swept @ Detroit and their pitching staff as a whole allowed 28 runs in that series (7 RPG) to the light hitting Tigers. Cleveland should have success offensively vs KC starter Singer who started the season very well but has fallen off as of late. Since the start of June Singer has an ERA of 5.70 and he’s allowed 46 baserunners in those 33 innings. He's also allowed 8 HR’s in those 33 innings and his ERA at home is nearly 5.00 on the season which is much higher than his road ERA. In his 1 meeting with Cleveland this season, Singer pitched 3 innings and allowed 4 ER’s for an ERA of 12.00. Dating back to last season, these 2 A.L. Central foes have averaged 9.9 total RPG over their last 10 meetings. We see a similar outcome tonight and we like the OVER. |
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07-07-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 9.5 Runs Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40 PM ET - These same two teams recently meet and produced total runs of 11, 18 and 12 and we see more of the same starting today. In fact, these same two pitchers just squared off in that series and in that game the two teams produced 18 runs, pounded out 21 hits and stranded 12 total baserunners. Dallas Keuchel (Arizona) pitched 5 innings and allowed 6 hits and 6 earned runs. Austin Gomber (Colorado) lasted 5.2 innings, giving up 6 hits and 4 earned runs. Gomber is 4-7 on the season with a 6.53 ERA and 1.45 WHIP and he won’t get much help from a Rockies bullpen which is the 3rd worst in MLB with a 4.75 ERA. Dallas Keuchel was 2-5 for the White Sox with a 7.88 ERA this season before being traded to the D’Backs recently. He is 0-1 for Arizona with a 9.64 ERA in 9.3 inning of work. Arizona has the 6th worst team ERA in the Bigs at 4.39. In their last ten games each, the Rockies games have averaged 9.50 runs per game while the D’Backs and opponents have averaged 11.60. Colorado has pounded left-handed starters of late with a .310 team batting average and 5.77 runs per game over their last ten. In Arizona’s last ten games overall they have combined to 9 or more runs eight times. Bet OVER here. |
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07-06-22 | Royals v. Astros -1.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
#974 ASA PLAY ON 8* Houston Astros -1.5 on Run Line (-135) over KC Royals, Wednesday at 8:10 PM ET - We are not going to lay -260 on the moneyline here but will lay 1.5 runs with Javier versus Keller. Christian Javier is 6-3 on the season in 11 starts with a 2.58 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and in his last three starts he has allowed just 3 total hits in 19 innings of work. He’ll face Brad Keller for the Royals who is 3-9 on the year with a 4.24 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. In Keller’s last three starts he’s faced Oakland twice and Detroit, who aren’t strong offensively, and allowed 14 hits in 16.2 innings of work. On the season the Royals have one of the worst total run differential at -102 (27th worst) and they’ve lost their last ten games by an average of -1.30 runs per game. Conversely, Houston has the 3rd best overall run differential at +93 runs on the season and they’ve outscored teams 5.60 runs to 2.50 runs per game in their last ten. On the season the Royals are hitting just .237 against right-handed starters and scoring an average of 3.92 runs/9 innings. Houston hits righties at a .241 clip and score 4.85 runs/9 innings. Houston has won 8 straight games and six of those have come by 2 or more runs. Lay it! |
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07-06-22 | Cardinals +155 v. Braves | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
#957 ASA PLAY ON 8* St Louis Cardinals +155 over Atlanta Braves, Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET - This line opened WAY too high at -190 and has dropped into the -175 range which still gives us solid value at +150 for the Cards. Atlanta took the first 2 games of this series by a combined score of 13-4 but only outhit the Cardinals by 4 total hits and have only had 2 more total baserunners in the 2 games combined. STL has 18 hits in this series which normally equates to approximately 9ish runs making their 4 runs in this series rather deceiving. Thus, the offenses have performed almost dead even in this series yet Atlanta is +9 on the run differential. The Cards send Mikolas to the mound and he has allowed 2 ER’s or fewer in 5 straight starts. He’s been their most consistent starter this season with an ERA of 2.61 and a WHIP of 0.99. Atlanta thrives on hitting HR’s (1.5 per 9 innings) but this is a bad match up for their offense with Mikolas only allowing 9 HR’s all season in 100 IP. Fried will start for Atlanta and he has been very good as well with a 2.66 ERA but his numbers at home are not as good as they are on the road including a WHIP of 1.20. Add to that the fact that STL has the 5th highest BA in the league vs lefties at .265 while averaging almost 6 RPG (just 4.5 vs righties) and we have a decent match up for the Cardinal hitters. We like the value with St Louis as a big money line dog here. |
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07-06-22 | Angels v. Marlins UNDER 7 | Top | 5-2 | Push | 0 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
#976/976 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – LA Angels vs Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET - The Angels offense has fallen off a cliff as of late. In their last 4 games they have scored a grand total of 5 runs on 11 TOTAL hits! That’s an average of 1.25 runs on 2.75 hits per game their last 4. Going back further the Angels are averaging 2.6 RPG with a batting average of only .183 their last 10 games. LA will be facing left hander Rogers tonight and while his numbers haven’t been great this season, his xFIP and xERA are almost a full run less than his actual ERA while his BABIP is quite high at .317 telling his he’s been unlucky. The Angels have seen very little of Rogers in the past (just 4 total plate appearances) and they have struggled vs lefties ranking 24th in batting average (.229) while averaging just 3.6 RPG. Miami’s offense hasn’t been great either as of late averaging just 3.5 RPG over their last 10. They have been held to 3 runs or fewer in 8 of their last 11 games. We don’t expect them to break out of their slump vs LA’s Ohtani who has been fantastic on the mound allowing just 1 ER in his last 4 starts spanning 27 innings. He’s striking out over 12 batters per 9 innings which is bad news for a Miami offense that K’s almost 9 times per 9 innings (26th in MLB). Last night Miami topped the Angels 2-1 and the teams combined for just 11 total hits. We see a similar outcome tonight and we grab the Under. |
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07-05-22 | Twins v. White Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 9.5 Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox, 8:10 PM ET - To start with both teams have favored the Under this season and most recently they are a combined 12-6 Under in their last 18 games. In fact, in both teams last ten games the Twins and their opponents have averaged 7.80 runs per game, the White Sox and their foes have averaged 8.20 RPG. The Twins send Chris Archer to the hill with his 2-3 overall record and 3.08 ERA. In his last four starts Archers has given up just 9 total hits and 3 earned runs in 17 innings of work. Michael Kopech has pitched better than his 2-5 record with a 2.78 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. In Kopech’s last ten starts the White Sox and opponents have topped 9 runs just three times. Minnesota is averaging 4.52 runs/9 innings (12th) while the White Sox are 21st in runs/9 innings at 4.24. The numbers also suggest a lower scoring game when it comes to these teams playing home/away facing right-handed starters (both righties here). Minnesota averages 4.79 runs per 9 innings when away from home, Chicago averages 3.62 runs/9 innings. |
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07-04-22 | Royals v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
#970 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Kansas City Royals, Monday at 4:10 PM ET - We were on the red hot Astros -1.5 yesterday at home vs the Angels and picked up a 4-2 win. Houston has now won 14 of their last 17 games with 11 of those wins coming by at least 2 runs. As we mentioned yesterday, their schedule during that stretch has been very tough as well including 9 games vs the Yankees & Mets. In their 3 games series vs the Angels, the Astros outscored LA 21-4 and had 33 hits to just 8 for LA. Houston has the top pitching staff in the Majors and today they bring Odorizzi off the DL to make his first start since mid May. He was solid prior to his injury allowing more than 3 ER’s just once in his 7 starts with a home ERA of 2.19. Odorizzi looked good in his 2 rehab starts in the Minors allowing 5 hits in 8 innings. We don’t expect him to pitch deep into this one but we’re fine with that as he is backed up by the top bullpen in MLB with an ERA of 2.65. The Houston pitching staff as a whole has been fantastic all season long and especially as of late allowing 2 runs or fewer in 8 of their last 9 games. KC ranks 24th or lower in RPG, OPS, and HR per 9 innings so we don’t expect them to do much offensively in this game. Houston’s offense has kicked it into high gear averaging 5 RPG over their last and their average winning margin over that stretch is almost +3 RPG. They’ll face KC starter Heasley who has only 1 win on the season and has allowed 68 baserunners in just 45 innings. While Houston has the top bullpen in the league, KC has the 3rd worst bullpen ERA and the 2nd worst WHIP. KC is 19 games below .500 with a run differential of -99 on the season. Houston is 24 games above .500 with a run differential of +90 and playing their best baseball of the season. We’ll lay the -1.5 here. |
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07-03-22 | Rays v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 8.5 Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays, 1:37 PM ET - This will be the 5th game of the series with each team winning two of the four games. Tampa Bay took the double-header sweep yesterday with a 6-2 win and 11-5 victory. Both teams have used their bullpens extensively which means they’ll need strong outings from the starters, and we don’t see that happening in this one. Both teams have hot bats right now as they combined for 25 hits in Game 2 yesterday and 18 in Game 1. The night before they belted out 20 hits in their 11-run game. The opening game of the series had just 5 runs scored but they had 14 total hits and should have produced at least 7 runs in that game. Shane Baz will get the start for Tampa Bay and in 4 starts he is 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA with three of those four contests finishing with 8 or more runs. In his two road starts he has a 5.40 ERA. Baz may be in trouble against this Jays lineup that is hitting .282 against right-handed starters their last ten games and scoring an average of 6.40 runs/9 innings. The Blue Jays will counter with Ross Stripling who is 4-2 on the season with a 3.12 ERA. In the last three games Stripling has started the Rays and their opponents have scored 11, 14 and 15 total runs. Without strong bullpens we should see plenty of runs in this one. |
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07-02-22 | Rangers +120 v. Mets | Top | 7-3 | Win | 120 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
#979 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas +115 over NY Mets, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - We’re getting the better starting pitcher and the better bullpen as a money line underdog in this one. Perez has been great all season for the Rangers with an ERA of 2.22 and he has allowed just 2 HR’s in 92 IP this season. He has allowed more than 3 ER’s just 2 times in his 15 starts this season. He’s facing a NYM lineup that is struggling right now. They have won just 4 of their last 10 games and their batting average during that stretch is just .210. The Mets are averaging only 3 RPG over their last 10 and for the season they are putting up 0.8 fewer runs per game vs left handers. We think they struggle with Perez today. Williams will start for NY and he’s mainly a reliever that has been pushed into a starting role at times this season. His record is just 1-4 on the season and over his last 3 appearances his ERA is 4.15 and his WHIP is 1.62. We feel Texas is a bit undervalued right now as they have a losing record but a plus run differential. They are also better on the road this season with a .500 record away from home and they are outscoring opponents 4.6 – 4.0 on the road this season. We like the Rangers as a dog with their top starter on the mound today. |
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07-01-22 | Brewers -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 19-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-115) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, 7PM ET - We are not ready to lay a big price with the Brewers and Burnes here but we will bet the value of the run line. Burnes is Milwaukee’s best pitcher with a 6-4 record, 2.41 ERA and 0.92 WHIP on the season. In his last 4 starts he is 3-1, having allowed a total of 6 earned runs in 24.3 innings of work. Burnes on the road this season has been nearly unhittable with a 3-1 record and 1.64 ERA. Milwaukee also has one of the better bullpens in the Bigs so after a strong start by Burnes they’ll close the door on a Pirates team that is 28th in runs/9 innings, 28th in team batting average, 28th in OPS. Yesterday the Brewers pounded out more hits (12) than the Pirates but got a horrible start from Houser in their 7-8 loss. The Pirates are sending Contreras to the Hill who is 2-1 on the season with a 2.76 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. In his last four starts Contreras has allowed 8 earned runs in 18.3 innings of work. Most recently he had some control issues against Tampa Bay with 5 walks. Milwaukee is 13th in runs/9 innings, 14th in OPS and 4th in homeruns. Milwaukee scores more than 1 full run per game against right-hander starters than the Pirates do and Pittsburgh is 27th in the league in total run differential at minus -100 on the season. After a loss yesterday we like Milwaukee to bounce back here big. |
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06-30-22 | Reds +111 v. Cubs | Top | 7-15 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
#955 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Reds +110 over Chicago Cubs, Thursday at 8 PM ET - The Reds have had a solid road trip with a 3-2 record including taking 2 of 3 @ San Francisco. These 2 have split the first 2 games of this series and we like Cincinnati to take the finale. Despite the split thus far, the Reds have outhit the Cubs in both games piling up 24 hits so far in this series. We like the pitching match up here for Cincinnati with Ashcraft on the mound, a pitcher that none of the Cubs hitters have ever seen. Ashcraft was called up in late May and allowed just 3 ER’s through his first 4 starts. He then had a few rough outings but impressed us last week when he bounced back and pitched great @ San Francisco (8 IP, 2 ER’s, and 8 strikeouts). His ERA on the season is 3.27 and his xERA is actually a bit lower at 3.23. He’s make 7 starts this year and the Reds have won 6 of those games. We look for Cincinnati’s offense to have solid success today vs Cubs starter Hendricks. They faced him a month ago and put up 4 runs in 4 innings. The Cincinnati hitters should also be very comfortable facing Hendricks as they’ve had well over 100 plate appearances vs him with a lifetime BA of .328. Hendricks has won just 1 game at home this season and his ERA is north of 5.00. Both bullpens are poor (bottom 5 in MLB) so that’s a crapshoot but we expect Cincinnati to have a cushion heading into the late innings. Since starting the season 3-22, the Reds have actually played near .500 baseball with a record of 23-26 their last 49. The Cubs, on the other hand, are just 14-26 over their last 40 games and their home field advantage has been non-existent with an identical record of 14-26 this year at Wrigley. Take the Reds tonight as a slight money line underdog. |
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06-29-22 | Padres -124 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
#903 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego -130 over Arizona, Wednesday at 3:40 PM ET - San Diego just swept Arizona last week at home in a 3 games series outscoring the DBacks 17-7. In last night’s game, the Padres led 6-0 entering the bottom of the 7th and Arizona rallied very late for a 7-6 win vs a normally solid San Diego bullpen. We expect the much better team to bounce back this afternoon with a win. The Padres are 14 games above .500 and have the 3rd best run differential in the N.L. at +63. They are also 24-15 on the road this season. Arizona is 7 games below .500 and they have a run differential of -47, 6th worst in the N.L. The DBacks have a losing home record and are getting outscored 4.5-3.9 per game at Chase Field. Arizona starter Bumgarner has an ERA of 3.72 but hasn’t pitched as well as that might indicate with an xERA of 4.67 and an xFIP of 4.75. San Diego has been much better vs lefties compared to right handers this season especially on the road where they average almost 6 RPG vs south paws. They faced Bumgarner at home last week and put up 6 runs on 9 hits in just 4 innings in a 10-4 win. Clevinger gets the start for the Padres and he’s been solid as a stater allowing just 4 ER’s in his 4 starts this year. That includes a game vs Arizona last week in which he allowed 1 ER in 4 innings of work. We look for Clevinger to go 4 or 5 innings and then San Diego’s bullpen (top 10 in ERA and #1 in MLB in WHIP) takes over with a chance to redeem themselves after last night’s debacle. We’ll take the much better team in a bounce back spot at a fairly low money line number. |