#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 11.5 Runs – San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:10 PM ET - The Rockies horrible start to the season continues but they did surprise us by scoring well against the normally tough Padres bullpen in the series opener Friday.  That was a 13-9 San Diego win and the Rockies got to the Padres bullpen well in that game.  Yesterday the Rockies never got into the bullpen but it did not matter for over players as the Padres scored 21 runs in a 21-0 shutout victory!  The Rockies should bounce back at that plate today as they have some guys in their lineup that have had success against Pivetta and we expect a game more like what we saw in Denver Friday.  The Padres have been absolutely crushing the ball when facing Colorado this season.  San Diego is now 5-0 against the Rockies this season and they have scored an average of 10 runs in those 5 victories!  Look for that trend to continue today in this hitter-friendly park, especially with great weather expected again today in Denver!  The ball was carrying very well yesterday and more of the same is expected today with ideal weather conditions on a warm afternoon at Coors Field.  The Padres Pivetta has struggled in 2 of his 3 road starts this season and he did go 3-6 with a 4.42 ERA on the road last season.  The Rockies German Marquez has lasted only 19 innings his last 5 starts and he has allowed 30 earned runs in those 19 innings!  Marquez has been getting crushed and now has to face a red hot Padres lineup that feels like it is taking batting practice here at Coors Field.  This one sets up well, as you can see, for both lineups to enjoy plenty of success here. Our computer math model projecting 14 to 15 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 12 or 13 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are big on the Over in this one with a Top Game selection.

#907/908 ASA PLAY ON Over 11.5 Runs – San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET - The Rockies horrible start to the season continues but they did surprise us by scoring well against the normally tough Padres bullpen yesterday.  It was still a 13-9 San Diego win and that cashed our money line ticket on the Padres yesterday.  Today we are involved again in this series but this time it is on the total.  The Padres will send an inexperienced hurler to the mound making just the 2nd start of his career and his first ever start at Coors Field.  Stephen Kolek did have 42 appearances last season for the Padres but it was all out of the bullpen.  Opponents hit .303 against the right-hander last season and the 28 year-old struggled in the two appearances he made here at Coors Field.  Yes, Kolek enters this outing off a strong start at Pittsburgh.  However, he struggled in the minors this season before being called up and he faced a struggling Pirates lineup in that outing last week.  That's not to say the Rockies have not been struggling also but the Colorado bats are going to carry momentum from last night's rally against the Padres bullpen.  The Rockies will give Kolek problems in his first ever start in a very hitter-friendly park.  Of course that hitter-friendly park, especially with great weather today in Denver, is also going to help lead to plenty of scoring for the Padres.  San Diego has won all 4 games with the Rockies this season and has scored an average of 7 runs in the 4 victories.  Here the Padres will be facing 24-year old right-hander Bradley Blalock.  He has struggled in Colorado since coming over from Milwaukee last season.  Blalock allowed 14 earned runs in 13 innings in 3 late-season appearances to wrap last year and now, in his first two starts this season, he has allowed 9 earned runs in 9 and 1/3 innings.  It won't get any easier here against a tough Padres lineup coming off a 13-run outburst yesterday.  This one sets up well, as you can see, for both lineups to enjoy plenty of success here. Our computer math model projecting 14 to 15 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 13 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one. 

#905/906 ASA PLAY ON Under 8.5 Runs – San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - The winds will be light but are expected to be out of the north and it is a rather cool evening expected at Wrigley Field for this one. Justin Verlander doesn't have great season numbers but he is flying under the radar right now because he has been pitching much better of late. Verlander has allowed a total of only 4 earned runs on just 11 hits in 18 and 1/3 innings over his last 3 starts.  He has gone a solid 6 innings in all 3 outings.  The Cubs Colin Rea is having a solid season including going 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA in his 4 starts since moving into the rotation.  Yesterday's game finished 9-2 but we don't expect such success for the Cubs at the plate as Verlander has round into strong form now.  As for the Giants, they have now averaged only 2.3 runs scored in the last 7 road games as their hitting woes continue away from  home.  The Cubs had scored an average of only 3 runs in their last 3 home games prior to yesterday's big day at the plate.  That low-scoring trending at home is likely to resume here per all of the above.  This should be a tight low-scoring battle. Our computer math model projecting 5 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one. 

#955/956 ASA PLAY ON Over 9 Runs – San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 4:05 PM ET - Some rain in the Pittsburgh area which is part of the reason we waited on releasing this selection for Saturday but it does look like the heavier showers will be out of the area before game time for this one and we should be good to go with just some light rain expected throughout this one.  This match-up involves two starting pitchers very likely to struggle here.  Randy Vasquez has had issues all season with command and has 19 walks in 27 and 1/3 innings!  Also, he was able to escape some jams and avoid big damage earlier this season but it looks like his luck is running out!  Vasquez has allowed 9 earned runs in 6 and 2/3 innings over his last 2 starts!  Also, he has allowed 17 hits in 11 and 2/3 innings over his last 3 starts.  He also has only 7 strikeouts in 21 innings this month!  As for Pirates starter Bailey Falter, he went 1-3 with a 6.66 ERA in April.  Falter is supported by a mediocre Pirates bullpen.  The San Diego bullpen has been strong this season but they will be called upon too early in this one as the struggles of Vasquez continue.  The Pirates were shutout once in the last 11 games but have averaged scoring 4 runs in the other 10 games.  The trouble for Pittsburgh is they have allowed 7.7 runs per game in the last 6 games!  San Diego is going to take advantage of facing Falter and a faltering bullpen!  The Padres won yesterday's game 9-4 and now have won 3 straight games and scored an average of 7 runs per game in this 3-game winning streak!  This one sets up well, as you can see, for both lineups to enjoy plenty of success here. Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one.

#979/980 ASA PLAY ON OVER 8.5 (+100) in San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays, Sunday @ 4:10 ET - There has not been much scoring in the first two games of this series but the total today is set at 8.5 runs with good reason.  Zach Littell has lost 6 straight starts dating back to last season.  The Rays hurler is 0-5 this season with a 5.28 ERA and he has given up 7 homers in just 16 innings over his last 3 starts.  Giving up an average of 1 long ball nearly every 2 innings is certainly not a good sign!  As for the San Diego starter, Randy Vasquez is quite the story early this season in terms of statistical anomaly.  He has a respectable 3.97 ERA in his 5 starts this season but it is a miracle his ERA is that low.  He has 17 walks against only 9 strikeouts in his 22 and 2/3 innings on the season.  Last season opponents hit .304 against him and Vasquez is showing signs now of unraveling this season too as well.  After giving up 7 hits in 5 innings but avoiding major damage 2 starts ago, the last start finally saw Vasquez get hammered.  He allowed 6 earned runs in a start lasting just 2 innings at Detroit.  With 4 straight wins and scoring 19 runs in those games, the Rays' confidence is up.  Even though the Padres have suddenly struggled, they entered this series with a 12-1 record at home on the season and averaged 5 runs per game at home.  San Diego's lineup takes advantage of facing Littell here and gets rolling again early in this one.  Both starting pitchers are likely to struggle here and even though two good bullpens are involved in this one, the Padres bullpen in particular has already seen a lot of work in the first two games of this series and that catches up with them here. Over gets the call in this one!  

#969/970 ASA PLAY ON OVER 9.5 (+100) in Athletics vs Rangers, Wednesday @ 10:05 ET - The Athletics temporary home this season in Sacramento continues to play out as a hitters paradise.  Texas won yesterday's game 8-5 and we have seen quite a few high-scoring games here already this season.  Athletics starter JP Sears has already seen how unforgiving this park can be as he struggled in his lone home start this season and gave up 3 earned runs in just 4 innings and the damage could have been even worse.  He will be opposed by Kumar Rocker for the Rangers here.   The Texas hurler is 0-3 in his 4 MLB road starts and the young hurler has particularly struggled in his first two road starts this season with 9 earned runs allowed in 6 innings of work!  Texas has had one low-scoring game on the road last 6 games but their other 5 recent road games have averaged 11 runs apiece and we expect a similar result here.  Two starting pitchers likely to struggle and neither bullpen has been great this season either.  Over gets the call here!

#913/914 ASA PLAY ON Over 9 Runs – Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays, Wednesday at 7:05 PM ET - 7 straight Rays games have reached at least the 9-run mark.  Yesterday Boston won 7-4 but the Rays took the first game of this series by a 16-1 final.  The Rays bullpen ERA ranks 17th in the majors and the Red Sox bullpen ERA ranks 20th out of the 30 teams.  The Rays batting average ranks 1st in the AL this season and Boston is a solid 4th out of the 15 AL teams!  Tampa Bay had won 4 of 6 previous to yesterday's loss and they have scored an average of 6 runs per game last 7 games.  Boston has been a little more up and down at the plate recently but yesterday's game is a good sign for them and tonight they take advantage of facing Zack Littell.  His first start was against a Rockies team that can not hit on the road and he had success of course here in Tampa against them.  However, Littell has since allowed 12 earned runs in 11 innings plus he just allowed 4 home runs in 4 innings here in Tampa Bay.  As for Red Sox starter Sean Newcombe, he has been shaky to say the least thus far.  He has struggled in his 3 starts this season and in particular the road has not been kind to him.  Newcombe allowed 10 runs (6 earned) in only 8 innings in his two road starts. . This one sets up well, as you can see, for both lineups to enjoy plenty of success here. Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one.

#913/914 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs – Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers, Saturday at 2:10 PM ET - Of the 14 games that were played yesterday, only one saw both teams reach double digits in hits.  It was this one featuring the Twins and Tigers and we expect another big day at the plate for both teams similar to yesterday's 7-6 Tigers win.  Detroit should have no trouble with the struggling Chris Paddack as he has been rocked in both starts this season.  Tigers starter Jackson Jobe is making just the 3rd start of his young MLB career.  He struggled with the long ball in spring training and that has carried right into the regular season as well plus he has struggled overall in both starts.  The Twins have scored at least 6 runs in each of their last 3 home games.  The Tigers have won 8 of 10 games and scored an average of 5.4 runs in those games and they stay hot at the plate here.  Our computer math model projecting 10 to 11 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 9 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one.

#951/952 ASA PLAY ON Over 7.5 Runs – Pittsburgh Pirates vs St Louis Cardinals, Wednesday at 12:35 PM ET - This total has dropped from its opener and yes it will be chilly in Pittsburgh today but not brutal.  Fedde starts for the Cardinal here and he is coming off his first road start of the season and it was a disaster.  Last season his ERA was more than 2 runs higher on the road compared to at home and we expect this pattern to continue here.  Fedde has a 4.85 ERA in his career and is not showing any signs of turning things around.  Keller starts for the Pirates here and he just got rocked by the Yankees here in Pittsburgh.  Keller had a 5.00 ERA in his 3 starts versus Cardinals last season and allowed 5 homers in the 3 outings.  Both bullpens struggling early this season too. Our computer math model projecting 9 to 10 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 8 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one.

#907/908 ASA PLAY ON Under 7 Runs – Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, Tuesday at 7:15 PM ET - This should be a pitchers duel in this early season division rivalry battle.  Chris Sale has a deceiving ERA early this season as he has certainly pitched better than his 5.40 ERA would lead you to believe.  Also, this is his first home start of 2025 and last season he went 10-0 with a 2.28 ERA in his 14 home starts!  Yes, 10-0!  He'll be opposed by Zach Wheeler who is already dominating again this season.  Wheeler has gone 42-20 since the start of the 2022 season and has been dominant since coming to the Phillies.  This season has been fantastic with only 5 hits allowed while striking out 18 in 13 innings over his first two starts!  Wheeler also has allowed just 3 earned runs total in his last 3 starts versus the Braves!  Both bullpens had slow starts earlier this season but both are rounding into form.  That is another reason to be careful looking at early season numbers.  Both these bullpens are expected to be solid and both are showing that after a shaky early season beginning.  The Phillies are off a wild 8-7 win over the Dodgers Sunday but this followed Philadelphia allowing only 8 runs in a strong 5-game stretch preceding that high-scoring win.  The Braves have allowed 3.4 runs per game the last 7 games and also the Atlanta lineup has mostly struggled this season.  Other than a 10-0 win, Atlanta has scored only 1.8 runs per game in their other 8 games!  The Phillies were averaging 3 runs per game over a 6-game stretch prior to that surprising blowout on Sunday.  Another factor we like here is the fact that early season timing for hitters is crucial as it takes awhile to get into mid-season form! Not only were both teams off Monday, the Braves game Sunday was also rained out! Facing Wheeler and Sale after time off is not fun for any team.  This should be a tight low-scoring battle. Our computer math model projecting 4 to 5 runs here and even if it gets to 6 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.

#903/904 ASA PLAY ON Under 7.5 Runs – Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - Back to back unders so far this in series and another one is likely here.  The Dodgers, not including extra innings runs, are allowing only 2.5 runs per game.  The Phillies are allowing only 1.6 runs per game last 5 games.  Glasnow is a fantastic pitcher that is very tough to hit and piles up strikeouts.  Sanchez off a great first start for the Phillies this season and went 7-3 with a 2.21 ERA in his home starts last season.  Chilly and dreary weather expected in Philly for this one and this should be yet another tight, low-scoring battle between two of the top teams in the majors.  These two bullpens are a combined 8-0 with 7 saves in 9 opportunities and a blended ERA in the 2.50 range.  The point is that runs should again be tough to come by throughout this one.  Our computer math model projecting 5 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.

#921/922 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs – Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - The Yankees are the #1 hitting team in baseball and scoring an average of 9 runs per game!  The Pirates are at the other end of the spectrum but have been hitting better at home and overall Pittsburgh has scored 4 runs in each of last 3 games.  The way we see it, that makes this a great spot for an over.  The Yankees should stay red hot at the plate and the Pirates are likely to not only reach 4 runs here but probably even more.  Pittsburgh will be facing Will Warren of the Yankees here and he is still unproven at the MLB level with an 0-3 record and 9.11 ERA in 7 games (6 starts).  He gave up only 1 hit (a homer) in 5 innings in his first start this season but he walked 4 in that outing.  Also, Warren had a 5.09 ERA in spring training with a tendency there to also give up the big hit.  Warren, in regular season MLB action, has allowed 6 homers in 27 and 2/3 innings.  Both bullpens have unimpressive ERAs so far this season and the Pirates starter is also in line for a tough outing here.  Andrew Heaney had a very rough spring training going 0-3 with a 9.49 ERA and also his first start in the regular season was decent but yet he only struck out 2 in 5 innings.  He is coming off a 5-14 season with the Rangers and now he faces a Yankees team that has been destroying left-handed pitching this season. New York has a .728 slugging percentage versus southpaws on the season.  Our computer math model projecting 11 to 12 runs here and even if it "only" gets to 10 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Over in this one.

#927/928 ASA PLAY ON Under 7.5 Runs – San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - The Padres bullpen has a miniscule 0.38 ERA this season which is tops in the majors.  The Guardians bullpen, though giving up some hits, is also doing a fantastic job as they rank #1 in the AL this season with a 2.08 ERA.  This one sets up well for an under as the starting pitching match-up features two guys who pitched better than their ERA shows in their first starts of this season.  Lively goes for Cleveland here and he allowed only 4 hits in 5 innings in his first start but was hurt by a 2-out 3-run homer in that game.  He did give up some long fly balls but he pitched better overall than the final results reflect.  Last season he had a 3.64 ERA in day games and the year before he had a 3.52 ERA in day games.  The Padres Cease gave up a 2-out 2-run single and a solo homer in his first start.  That ground ball could have been fielded if the 2nd baseman was in a better position and it should have been inning over.  Cease is a great pitcher and had 7 strikeouts in 4 innings in that outing. Opponents hit just .153 against him in day games last season and only .220 against him the year before in afternoon games.  Not including runs in extra innings, the Guardians have averaged scoring only 3 runs per game this season and they might only get 1 or 2 here considering they are facing Cease and a great bullpen. The Padres should also struggle at the plate as Boegaerts is 3 for 6 versus Lively but the rest of the active roster is a combined 1 for 21 against him!  Our computer math model projecting 5 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one. 

#905/906 ASA PLAY ON Under 9 Runs – New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers, Monday at 8:08 PM ET - This total has even moved up to a 9 in some spots as of mid-day Monday and this is an excellent value on the under whether at 8.5 runs or 9 runs.  The Dodgers and Yankees both have the luxury of rested bullpens here after the off day for travel on Sunday.  Buehler had a tough first start in the post-season for LA but he then bounced back strong with a great effort against the Mets and he has some solid post-season experience under his belt.  Buehler has 17 starts in the post-season in his career with a 3.25 ERA and he has held opponents to a .216 batting average against in those 88.2 innings!  Buehler has allowed only 1 earned run on just 5 hits in 13 innings in his 2 career World Series starts and both were in Game 3 match-ups like this one.  The Yankees go with Clarke Schmidt here and he has been respectable so far in the post-season with just 2 earned runs allowed in each outing.  Though he has not worked deep, a solid Yankees bullpen supports him.  In the regular season, Schmidt compiled a 2.85 ERA in 16 starts.  Of course Game 1 of this series was crazy in that it went over the total despite being 2-2 through 9 innings. In fact, there has been a total of only 14 runs (4.7 per game) scored in the Yankees last 3 games - not including runs scored in extra innings.  The Dodgers, not including extra innings runs, have allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of 10 games.  4 of those games were shutout wins.  We feel we are getting nice line value here with this big total when you consider all of the above.  Our computer math model projecting 6 to 7 runs here and even if it gets to 8 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.

#953/954 ASA PLAY ON Over 7.5 Runs - Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees, Monday at 7:38 PM ET - The Yankees should pound Alex Cobb here. The Guardians right-hander only lasted 3 innings in his only post-season start and he allowed 2 earned runs in that one.  He missed much of this season with injury and he only made 3 starts in the regular season.  He also struggled badly in the lone road start in the bunch.  Also, in 2021 and 2022 and 2023 Cobb had a much higher ERA on the road than at home all 3 seasons!  The Yankees should get to him right away in this start and he is again unlikely to pitch deep as a result.  The Yankees will indeed need to score well here because all signs point to Carlos Rodon having some struggles in this one against this Cleveland lineup.  The Yankees southpaw struggled in his only post-season outing so far this year and Rodon struggled in his only post-season start a few years ago with the White Sox as well and did not make it out of the 3rd inning.  There is a lot of pressure on him here in the Bronx and the prior ugly post-season experiences do not help matters.  We expect that to get to him and the Guardians should give him plenty of trouble. Cleveland is off B2B wins in which they averaged 6 runs apiece. The Yankees last 3 games stayed under the total but this was on the heels of a stretch in which 8 of last 9 Yankees games dating back to the regular season have totaled 8 or more runs and 7 of those 8 reached a total of 10 or more runs!  We expect a similar result here. Per our computer math, the highest probability in this one is for a range of 9 to 10 runs here.  Over is the call in this one Monday evening.

#939/940 ASA PLAY ON Under 6.5 Runs – Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros, Tuesday at 2:32 PM ET - The Astros Framber Valdez squaring off against the Tigers Tarik Skubal sets this one up for a classic pitchers duel.  Valdez is 9-2 with a 2.53 ERA at home this season!  Also, Valdez compiled a 1.65 ERA over the final two months of the regular season and allowed only 33 hits in 60 innings!  As for the Tigers Skubal, he went 18-4 on the season including 8-1 with a 2.37 ERA after the All-Star break!  Also, Skubal went undefeated with a 1.52 ERA in his 4 starts in the month of September.  Both hurlers come into this one in top form and each of them are capable of throwing an absolute gem here.  These two bullpens both rank in the top 4 in the American League this season.  The Tigers hit just .222 their final 6 games of the season.  The Astros, due to scheduling plus one rainout too, have played only 2 games the last 5 days.  This will not help their timing at the plate either and in particular this is true when facing a tough southpaw like Skubal!  This is playoff baseball now and per all of the above this one will, in all likelihood, be a tight low-scoring battle! Our computer math model projecting 4 to 5 runs here and even if it gets to 6 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.

ASA PLAY ON Under 8.5 in Kansas City Royals at Washington Nationals, Thursday 1:05 ET -The Royals are starting Michael Wacha and the Nationals going with Patrick Corbin here. Note that Corbin has a high ERA on the season but he often struggles badly on the road but has success at home. If you look at his last 3 home starts he has allowed a total of only 2 earned runs on just 9 hits in 18 innings of work! Corbin does it again here at home. Wacha has been strong in 9 of his last 10 starts! In those 9 outings he has allowed a total of only 13 earned runs! The Royals have lost 7 of 9 games and have averaged scoring only 1.9 runs per game during this stretch. The Nationals have lost 8 of 9 games and scored only 1.6 runs per game during this stretch. This is a match-up featuring two starting pitchers likely to produce quality starts and two lineups that are slumping badly. The Nationals have been shutout in 3 straight games in fact! We expect a pitchers duel here and some books are even dropping to an 8 on this total which tells you plenty about this one as well. The expectation is a very low-scoring battle here Thursday in early afternoon action. UNDER is the call in this one

#957/958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 10 Runs - St Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies, Wednesday at 8:40 PM ET - Last night's game just missed going over the total as it landed on 10 runs when the Rockies failed to score in the bottom of the 8th despite a 1st and 3rd no out situation. That game staying under likely is serving to help keep this total lower as, under normal circumstances given this pitching match-up we would have expected even more movement on this total today. It has ticked up a bit but it should have ticked up even more and there is solid value here.  Erick Fedde starts for the Cardinals here and he has struggled in his road starts and now pitches at the toughest ballpark in the league from a pitchers standpoint.  Fedde has struggled in 4 of his 5 road starts since the beginning of August.  In those 4 starts he has allowed 16 earned runs in 21.1 innings!   The Rockies will have Austin Gomber on the mound here and he has allowed 35 hits in 22.2 innings in his 5 home starts since the All-Star break.  This was on the heels of a June in which he went 0-3 with a 9.39 ERA in his 5 starts!  Since then Gomber has been better on the road but not at home as his last 5 home starts clearly show.  Now he faces a Cardinals team that has won 6 of 8 games and scored an average of 5.3 runs per game in those 6 victories.  The Cardinals have scored 6.3 runs per game in their last 4 games against the Rockies.  They have also enjoyed success against a Colorado bullpen that ranks among the worst in the majors for bullpen ERA.  The Cardinals bullpen certainly has been better than the Rockies but, again, pitching at Colorado is a whole different animal.  The St Louis pen hung on yesterday but last season here the Cardinals allowed 6 runs per game and all 3 games in that series at Coors Field totaled more than 10 runs.  The Rockies fell short yesterday but averaged 5.5 runs a game in their last dozen home games prior to that one.  Colorado's slugging percentage at home ranks 5th in the majors this season.  We like this match-up for plenty of runs tonight as favorable weather conditions are expected as well.  With no post-season for either team they are not playing with playoff pressure here and will be relaxed at the plate and we are confident both these pitchers are going to struggle given Fedde's recent road struggles and Gomber's recent home struggles.  Per our computer math, the highest probability in this one is for a range of 12 to 13 runs here.  Over is the call in this one Wednesday evening.

#921/922 ASA PLAY ON Under 7 Runs (+100) – Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - Low total but this has pitchers' duel written all over it.  Logan Gilbert continues to pile up strikeouts and he also is in top form currently and this has even held true on the road.  In his last two road starts, Gilbert has allowed only 6 hits in 14 innings while striking out 19 batters!  Also, in his only start at Houston this season he allowed just 2 hits in 8 scoreless innings against the Astros!  In looking at the Astros Framber Valdez he has allowed a total of only 2 earned runs in his last 4 starts!  He has allowed 1 earned run or less in 6 of his last 7 outings!  Since the All-Star break he has been incredible with a 6-2 record and a 1.74 ERA and opponents hitting just .153 against him.  Houston is still trying to secure the division and Seattle still has hopes of a Wild Card berth as well.  There is quite a bit of pressure on both clubs in entering this one.  In other words, this will likely play out as a playoff-type game. We expect runs to be at a premium here given the pitching match-up.  Two solid bullpens involved here as well.  Seattle won yesterday's game 6-1 but that one was 1-0 entering the 7th inning.  Seattle ranks 22nd in the majors for batting average on the road.  Houston has struggled with Mariners pitching all season long and has scored an average of only 2.5 runs over the last 10 games between these teams.  We are going with the Under in this one.

#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8 Runs - Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Twins are starting Zebby Matthews here and the rookie is struggling to adjust to the MLB level.  Things are not getting any easier either as he certainly has not been trending the right way either.  Matthews has allowed 15 earned runs in only 10.1 innings over his last 3 starts.  The Guardians also have a starting pitcher that has strong odds of struggling this evening as well.  Gavin Williams mixes in a quality start every once in a while but that appears unlikely here as he has struggled badly in his last 2 starts with one knocking him out in the first inning and the next one seeing him struggle to make it through 5 innings.  Overall Williams has struggled in 5 of his last 8 starts with 22 earned runs allowed in 23.1 innings over those 5 starts.  Certainly Cleveland has a strong bullpen and a great closer but their closer Emmanuel Clase would be pitching a 3rd straight day if he is called upon here.  Certainly this is doable for him but yet is not something he has done very often this season.  As for the Twins, their bullpen ERA ranks 22nd in the majors and they may be needed early here the way Matthews is going.  Yesterday's game was a 4-3 Cleveland win but the teams combined for 18 hits.  Also, the Twins won 3 of 5 and scored 6 runs per game in the 5-game stretch before yesterday's loss.  The Guardians have won 6 of 8 games and scored an average of 4.8 runs in the 6 wins.  Cleveland has won 6 of 9 at home and averaged scoring 6 runs per game in the 6 victories.  We get a low total to work with because this ballpark is not known for high-scoring games but because of the pitching match-up and the way both teams have swung the bat a little better of late compared to usual, we feel this is exceptional line value here.  Per our computer math, the highest probability in this one is for a range of 10 to 11 runs here.  Over is the call in this one early Tuesday evening.

#967/968 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs - Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET - The Angels are surprisingly showing some life again recently and face another pitcher they should hit here while the Twins really got their sticks going last night. We look for plenty of runs here.  The Angels have gone 6-6 last dozen games and scored 4.4 runs per game during this stretch.  The Twins will build off yesterday's 10-5 win and remember a lot of recent struggles at the plate also came on a recent 7-game road trip preceding this homestand.  Minnesota can turn it around at the plate now that they are here at home for a bit again.  The Twins will take advantage of facing Jack Kochanowicz here.  The right-hander has seen opponents hit .315 against him this season and he does not register many strikeouts!  As for Zebby Matthews, the Twins right-hander has been hit at a .323 average this season and we can see this turning into another high-scoring battle just like yesterday.  Both bullpens are mediocre, not great, and both teams had double digits in hits yesterday and the Angels also had 6 runs on 9 hits in Monday's game.  Over is the call in this one early Wednesday evening.

#951/952 ASA PLAY ON Over 7 Runs - Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants, Thursday at 3:40 PM ET - Diamondbacks games continue to go over the total and we are going to take advantage of a low number here. Don't let the pitching match-up keep you away from this one. Last night Zac Gallen threw 6 innings without allowing a single hit. The final score still ended up being 6-4. The Diamondbacks have been hitting well and the Giants should get to Arizona starter Merrill Kelly here as well. That makes this one a perfect set-up for an over. Kelly has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 3 straight starts plus he has allowed 6 homers in those 3 outings. The Giants 4 runs came late in the game yesterday but they can do damage early today in this one and then also get to that struggling Diamondbacks bullpen as the game goes on. Certainly Blake Snell has been pitching so well for the Giants outside of command issues in a recent start at Seattle. However, the Diamondbacks did get to him for 5 earned runs in 4.2 innings earlier this season and they have been one of hottest hitting teams in the majors in the 2nd half of the season. Their surge continues here and the hot run of overs in Arizona's games continues to surge as well. Over is the call in this one Thursday afternoon.

#951/952 ASA PLAY ON Over 8 Runs - Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Definitely not a match-up of two powerhouse teams here but this has actually worked in our favor in terms of keeping this total low.  The total has dropped to an 8 in a lot of books as of 11 AM central time and we are happy to get involved with an over here as this match-up involves two starting pitchers likely to struggle.  Patrick Corbin has shown some better results of late but he has enjoyed a home-heavy schedule.  When Corbin comes up with some better starts it tends to be at home.  His road outings, on the other hand, leave a lot to be desired!  Corbin is 1-7 with a 6.52 ERA in his 13 road starts this season.  The Washington left-hander likely to get hit hard at Miami here. The Marlins also have a pitcher going that is likely to get hit hard.  Max Meyer gets the ball for Miami tonight and he went 1-4 with a 7.12 ERA in his 6 starts in August and opponents hit over .300 against him!  The Nationals have not scored well in B2B losses but this followed a 9 game stretch where they went 5-4 and scored 4.4 runs a game and they are facing weaker pitching here.  The Marlins have won 5 of 8 games and scored 5.5 runs per game in this 8-game stretch.  Also, 8 of Miami's last 11 games have totaled at least 9 runs.  Over is the call in this one early Tuesday evening.

#903/904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs - Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday at 4:10 PM ET - The Diamondbacks have won 28 of 40 games since the All-Star break.  Arizona has scored an average of 6.9 runs in the last 36 of those games and, as you would expect, have been trending strongly to the over!  The Dodgers had won 10 of 12 games prior to yesterday's 14-3 loss here and they have averaged scoring 6.1 runs in their last 11 games. The Dodgers start Jack Flaherty here and he has mostly good numbers since coming to LA from the Tigers.  We say "mostly" because he just allowed 2 homers for the 3rd time in 4 starts and 3 of those 4 starts were at home! Now he is on the road and, keep in mind, facing the Diamondbacks at Arizona is a tough match-up!  The Dbacks have the #1 batting average at home in the majors this season!   As for the Arizona starter, Eduardo Rodriguez, he has made 4 starts since his return.  One of those was against one of the weakest hitting teams (Miami) in the majors and he allowed only 1 earned run but 6 hits in 5 innings.  In the other 3 starts since he returned he allowed 11 earned runs in 16 innings!  He just allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings versus the Mets and he faces another very tough challenge here.  The Dodgers have the #1 slugging percentage in the NL this season!  Two very solid hitting teams and also the Diamondbacks bullpen ERA ranks 20th in the majors and the runs keep rolling in at Chase Field.  Overall, 25 of the last 34 Arizona games have totaled at least 9 runs and that trend continues here! Also, 15 of the last 18 Diamondbacks home games have totaled at least 9 runs and 13 of those 15 got to 10+ runs!  Over is the call in this one Monday afternoon.

#907/908 ASA PLAY ON Over 8 Runs - New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks, Thursday at 3:40 PM ET - The Diamondbacks have won 27 of 36 games since the All-Star break.  Arizona has scored an average of 6.8 runs in the last 32 of those games and, as you would expect, have been trending strongly to the over!  The Mets had won 8 of 13 games prior to yesterday's 8-5 loss and they have averaged 5 runs during this stretch. The Mets start David Peterson here and the left-hander does have great numbers on the season and in recent outings.  One of the keys however is that he has faced a lot of weaker teams quite often this season including the A's plus the Marlins multiple times and the Nationals 3 times.  Give him some credit for a solid overall season but keep in mind facing the Diamondbacks at Arizona is a tough match-up!  The Dbacks have the #1 batting average at home in the majors this season!   Also, both these bullpens have ERA numbers that rank them only at mid-level in the majors.  As for the Arizona starter, Ryne Nelson is off of B2B quality starts on the road but has a 4.95 ERA in his home starts this season.  Also, the Mets have the #1 slugging percentage in the NL in road games this season!  Two solid hitting teams and both teams with hopes on post-season MLB keep pushing hard in this one and the runs keep coming.  22 of the last 30 Arizona games have totaled at least 9 runs and that trend continues here!  Over is the call in this one Thursday afternoon.

#929/930 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs - Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Dodgers, Tuesday at 10:10 PM ET - The Orioles Cole Irvin just made his first appearance on the mound in 3 weeks and his first start in nearly 2 months.  It was a shaky outing for him last week and he was unable to make it out of the 5th inning. In his last 7 starts Irvin has allowed 50 hits in 34.1 innings!  He has been very hittable and also has been charged with 16 earned runs in 16.2 innings in his last 4 starts!   Now Irvin has to face the Dodgers and he is on the road for this one.   LA is expected to have Jack Flaherty on the mound in this one.  He is off a solid start versus the Mariners but he gave up 7 earned runs on 13 hits (including 4 homers!) in 10.2 innings spanning his two starts before that one against Seattle.  Flaherty now has to face one of the top hitting teams in the majors.  The Orioles have the #1 slugging percentage in the majors this season!  The Dodgers have the #1 slugging percentage in the NL. The LA bullpen is solid but the Orioles are middle of the pack at best.  Baltimore did not hit well at all in their Sunday night loss and we expect them to bounce back strong here.  This Orioles team has scored 5.3 runs per game on the road this season and have maintained that pace in their 19 road games since the All-Star break as well.  The Dodgers have averaged scoring 5.5 runs per game in their last 18 home games.  We look for these two lineups to be the story in this one as these two teams loaded with potent hitters put on a show here at Dodger Stadium in the opener.  Per our computer math, high probability for a range of 10 to 12 runs here.  Over is the call in this one Tuesday night.

#919/920 ASA PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs - Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Diamondbacks have won 23 of 31 games since the All-Star break.  Arizona has scored an average of 6.8 runs in the last 27 of those games and, as you would expect, have been trending strongly to the over!  Boston has won 6 of 10 games and scored an average of 5.5 runs during this 10-game stretch!  The Red Sox are off a 4-1 win but, prior to this, 20 of 29 Boston games reached double digits in runs scored and we expect a back and forth high-scoring affair in this one.  The Red Sox start Brayan Bello.  The right-hander has a 5.28 ERA at home this season with opponents hitting .286 against him there.  Arizona's Ryne Nelson is off of a quality start on the road but this followed allowing 4 earned runs and being hit hard in each of his two road starts prior to that one.  Both bullpens have ERA numbers that rank them in the lower third of the league.  Also, these are 2 of the top 3 teams in the majors for slugging percentage over the last 30 days.  Two hot lineups and both teams with hopes on post-season MLB keep pushing hard in this one and the runs keep coming.  9 of 12 games at Fenway Park since the A/S break totaled at least 10 runs and all signs point to plenty of success for each lineup here as that trend continues!  Over is the call in this one Friday night.

#955/956 ASA PLAY ON Under 7.5 Runs – Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET - This one should be a pitchers duel. When Nick Lodolo faced the Pirates earlier this season it was also a start at Pittsburgh and he was fantastic with just 1 earned run on 4 hits in 7 innings while striking out 8!  Lodolo enters this start off a bad one at home and that is the 2nd bad one he has had at home in recent weeks.  But he continues to dominate on the road where he has given up only 14 earned runs in 37.1 innings for a solid 3.37 ERA in his 7 starts away from home.  This Pirates team has been struggling to score runs in most of their recent games so we expect Lodolo to have another good start against them.  Pittsburgh is on a 3-13 run and averaged only 1.8 runs scored in their last 8 losses during this bad stretch.  The Reds lineup has been performing better than the Pirates of late yet they have averaged only 3.2 runs scored in the last 5 road games prior to wrapping up the series in Toronto with a huge win.  Now they face a very tough match-up with Paul Skenes on the mound.  He bounced back at home after a tougher outing in LA versus the Dodgers and he has given up only 10 earned runs in his last 6 home starts.  Runs likely tough to come by in this one as Skenes and Lodolo should both work deep as well and we like the recent history of these pitchers versus these lineups. Our computer math model is projecting high probability for a range of only 4 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.

#967/968 ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs - Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - These teams played a double-header yesterday and that puts some extra stress on bullpens.  This is particularly true in this case because in the first game yesterday neither starter was able to make it out of the 5th inning.  Also, the Guardians have been losing but their games continue to see plenty of runs.  In fact, Cleveland is 2-7 in August and 7 of the 9 games have totaled at least 9 runs!  The Guardians enter this game losers in 7 straight games and Gavin Williams is unlikely to turn that around.  Williams is off a tough start and if you look at 3 of his last 4 starts he has given up 12 earned runs in 14 innings spanning 3 of the 4 starts.  The Twins, unlike the Guardians, have won 7 of 9 games.  Minnesota has scored an average of 6 runs per game in this 9-game stretch!  13 of their 19 games since the All-Star break have reached at least 9 runs.  Also, Simeon Woods Richardson is expected to get the start here and he has struggled some in his last two starts and that includes the most recent one even though it was against the White Sox!  Woods Richardson has allowed 9 earned runs in 7.1 innings over his last two starts!  We like the value here given all of the above as well as the high-scoring trending of Guardians games and Twins games plus the metrics based on this expected pitching match-up.  Over is the call in this one Saturday evening.

#921/922 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs - Minnesota Twins at New York Mets, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET - The Twins look to respond off yesterday's 15-2 loss.  While we are forecasting a much better night of hitting for Minnesota in this one, we also expect the Mets to pound the ball yet again.  The Twins had won 4 of 6 before that loss yesterday and they had scored an average of 5 runs per game in their first 8 games after the All-Star break.  Minnesota did have 9 hits last night but scored only 2 runs as they left 9 men on base in the game.  The Twins are facing lefty Sean Manaea here.  The Mets southpaw has been solid this season but he has allowed 18 baserunners (including 2 hit batters) in 9.2 innings spanning his two starts since the All-Star break.  Minnesota is hitting .276 against left-handed pitching this season and that is #1 in the majors!  As for Twins starter David Festa, he is off of a solid performance versus the Phillies but he did give up quite a few hard hit balls in that one.  He was solid from a strikeout standpoint but, considering the hard contact, he was fortunate more damage was not done.  Festa is a rookie and he has allowed 12 earned runs in 10 innings in his first two MLB starts.  His 3rd outing was a long relief effort against the Phillies.  We look for another tougher start (just like the first two) for Festa here on the road and all signs point to plenty of success for each lineup here!  Over is the call in this one early Tuesday evening.

#955/956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 9 Runs - Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - Though yesterday's game was admittedly an extremely fortunate win for those (including us) holding over tickets in Arizona (was 2-1 in top of 9th!) the fact is the Diamondbacks entered that contest continuing to trend toward high-scoring games here in July and we will take advantage of the rather low total of 9 posted on Monday's game.  Now it is the Nationals that Arizona is hosting rather than the Pirates and Washington, like the Diamondbacks, enter this game off a tough, tight loss as they gave up the deciding run in the bottom of the 9th of a 4-3 final.  Overall, Washington was on a 7-4 run before yesterday's loss and the Nationals averaged scoring 5.5 runs during that 11-game stretch.  We are confident the Nationals will resume their hot hitting here after a couple of huge games at the plate in St Louis before yesterday's loss. We also like how potent this Arizona lineup has been. The Diamondbacks have won 16 of 24 games and some big hitting games have certainly helped lead the way.  The Diamondbacks have scored 6 runs per game on average during this 24-game stretch.  The Nationals bullpen ERA ranks 17th and Arizona's ranks 22nd so look for runs throughout this game as these starting pitchers are also likely to struggle!  Mitchell Parker gets the call for Washington and he is winless with a 9.18 ERA in his 4 starts this month.  He has a 4.91 ERA on the road this season.  Jordan Montgomery expected to take the mound for the Diamondbacks in this one.  Montgomery has been getting hit hard at home all season long.  We are not exaggerating as he had one good start at home versus the major league worst White Sox this season but has been hit quite hard in every other home start this season.  He has a 7.82 ERA at home this season and opponents are hitting .355 against him in those starts. All signs point to plenty of success for each lineup here!  Over is the call in this one Monday night.

#911/912 ASA PLAY ON Over 8 Runs - Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics, Wednesday at 3:37 PM ET - The Astros Hunter Brown has a 4.99 ERA in road games and a 1-4 record with a 7.09 ERA in day games. As strong as he has been at home and in night games this season, you can see why this could be a tricky matchup for him this afternoon in Oakland.  The Athletics have been better with wins in 11 of 17 games and Oakland has scored an average of 7 runs during this stretch.  So, Oakland has been trending much better of late compared to their full season numbers.  Houston has suddenly cooled off but they had been hot too and they will get to the A's starter here.  JP Sears gets the start and he is off a start where he only allowed 2 earned runs but on 9 hits in an outing that he was unable to complete 6 innings.  He has now given up 45 hits in 33 innings spanning his last 7 starts.  The Astros get it rolling at the plate this afternoon and the A's stay hot.  Over is the call in this one Wednesday afternoon. 

#977/978 ASA PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs - Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - Yesterday's game was a 10-4 Royals win and we look for another high-scoring game here. Kansas City is running hot after the All-Star break with 4 straight wins and they've scored 6.8 runs per victory in this stretch!  Going further back, KC has won 8 of 10 games and scored 6.1 runs a game during this hot stretch.  The Diamondbacks are off B2B losses but this followed a 12-5 stretch in which Arizona scored 6.5 runs per game during the last 14 games of that.  Their bats should resume the hot-hitting ways here as they face Alec Marsch of the Royals.  The Kansas City right-hander had a 5.68 ERA in 6 starts last month.  Now this month he has a 7.20 ERA in 3 appearances (2 starts).  Marsh's struggles continue here but he should get plenty of run support as well.  Not only are the Royals bats hot, they can take advantage of a struggling Jordan Montgomery who is also coming off the 15-day DL after dealing with a knee injury.  The Dbacks southpaw has allowed 26 earned runs in his last 25.1 innings dating back to late May.  In terms of bullpen ERA, the Diamondbacks are ranked 21st and the Royals are ranked 20th.  We like all the key elements to this one and our computer math model shows the highest probability of 11 to 12 runs.  Over is the call in this one Tuesday evening.

#965/966 ASA PLAY ON Over 8 Runs - Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays, Sunday at 1:37 PM ET - Toronto's Kevin Gausman is 1-5 at Rogers Centre this season with a 7.19 ERA and opponents hitting .318 against him.  Home has not been good to Gausman this season to say the least.  We also look for Detroit's Keider Montero to struggle in this one.  Montero is off a start in which he allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings.  He has only pitched in 5 games this season but has now allowed at least 4 earned runs in 3 of the 5 outings.  Montero has appeared in 3 day games this season and has a 9.22 ERA under the sun.  The Tigers have won 12 of 16 games and scored 5.7 runs per game during this solid 3-week stretch of action.  The Blue Jays are looking to avoid the sweep here but one thing has remained a constant for the Blue Jays of late and that is high-scoring games.  24 of 29 games for Toronto over the past 5 weeks have totaled at least 8 runs.  Most of those games totaled at least 9 runs and this total is set too low.   Per our computer math model, the most probable outcome for total runs scored in this one is in a range of 10 to 11 runs.  The Jays have had 7 straight games total at least 8 runs and those 7 games averaged 11.4 runs per game. We make the most of this low total.  Over is the call in this one early Sunday afternoon. 

#959/960 ASA PLAY ON Over 9.5 Runs – Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are starting unproven Justin Wrobleski who is making his MLB debut.  He is practically jumping directly from AA ball to the majors as he made only two AAA starts before getting called up.  Prior to this season he had never pitched higher than single A ball.  He will be facing a Brewers team that is 5th in the majors for slugging percentage in day games and averaging 4.8 runs scored per game in day games.  Milwaukee sends Dallas Keuchel to the mound for this one.  His recent seasons have only featured minimal MLB appearances and the results have been ugly.  This season, with Milwaukee, Keuchel has only pitched in two games and has a 6.75 ERA and opponents are hitting .316 against him.  His strikeout numbers were way down in the minors this season too.  Now he has to deal with a tough LA lineup and on the road at Dodger Stadium.  Los Angeles has a .441 slugging percentage which is tops in the NL and also they are known for hitting well at home and in day games too.  The Dodgers won yesterday's game 5 to 3 but we expect more scoring in this one.  Prior to that 5-3 win, LA had been involved in 6 straight games that all totaled at least 11 runs!  Our computer math model is projecting 11 to 12 runs here!  We are going with the Over in this one Sunday.