Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-04-22 | Jets +3 v. Vikings | Top | 22-27 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
#451 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Jets +3 over Minnesota, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Line value with Jets here in our opinion. This number basically says these 2 are even on a neutral field which we disagree with. Minnesota has the better record at 9-2 but they remain vastly overrated. They have a negative YPP differential and their point differential is just +5 on the season despite their 9 wins. There are 12 teams in the NFL that have better point differential than Minnesota and 29 teams that have a better YPP differential. That’s right, the Vikings rank 30th in YPP differential at -0.84 and the Jets rank 9th at +0.35 and NY has played the more difficult schedule. In their last 2 games, Minnesota was rolled at home by Dallas 40-3 and then “bounced back” to beat New England 33-26 but the Vikes were outgained by a whopping 2.0 YPP in that win. They allowed 26 points and 7.4 YPP to a Patriots offense that had 10 points on just 4.7 YPP on Thursday vs Buffalo. HUGE edge defensive here for the Jets as they allowed 5.1 YPP (5th) while Minnesota gives up 6.3 YPP (31st). New NY QB White is an upgrade over a struggling Wilson and while we don’t expect the huge numbers he had last week vs Chicago, he’ll do enough vs a Minnesota defense allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt (31st) to get the Jets a win here. We’ll take the points with the Jets on Sunday |
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12-04-22 | Broncos v. Ravens UNDER 39.5 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
#453/454 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 39.5 Points – Denver Broncos vs Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Denver hasn’t reached 17 points in 9 of their 11 games and they’ve gone Under the total in 10 of their 11 games this season. Their games have stayed Under the total by 111 total points this season! They rank last in scoring offense and 4th in scoring defense and Denver games are averaging just 32 total points this season. Only 22.7% of their offensive possessions have either reached the red zone or scored prior which is lowest in the league. The Broncos have also punted on almost 51% of their possessions which is the highest rate in the NFL. The Baltimore defense has been solid allowing just 20.8 PPG and they rank 9th defensive DVOA (per Football Outsiders) so we don’t see Denver’s offense having much success. Some on the other side. The Ravens offense is not overly explosive through the air with just 24 completions of 20 or more yards which is 3rd worst in the NFL. They are facing a Denver defense that has allowed more than 23 points only once all season and Baltimore loves to run the ball (6th highest run percentage in the league) which eats clock. Last week Baltimore was in a high scoring 28-27 loss @ Jacksonville (24th in total defense) but that game was 12-10 in the 4th quarter before the offenses went crazy. Denver games has reached 40 points ONCE this season and these teams have combined to go 17-5 to the UNDER this season. Another low scoring game here. |
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12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots OVER 43.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 48 m | Show |
#301/302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 43.5 Points – Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - This is the lowest total set on a Buffalo game this season and they only other one that was close was when they faced Pittsburgh in early October and the total was 44.5. The average total set in Buffalo games this season is 49.8 and this one has gotten too low in our opinion. The Bills are 2nd in the NFL averaging 28 PPG and since throwing up a dud vs the Jets a month ago (Bills score 17), Buffalo has put up 89 points over their last 3 games. New England’s defense had a very solid 3 game stretch leading into last week’s game vs Minnesota where they allowed the Vikings to pile up 33 points. However, those 3 games were vs poor offenses with the NY Jets (twice) and Indianapolis. The Bills we be the best offense the Patriots have faced this season and in their 3 meetings last year (one in the playoffs), Buffalo averaged 30 PPG. Defensively Buffalo was great early in the season giving up just 12 PPG over their first 5 contests. However, they’ve been trending down allowing 23 PPG over their last 6 games including 78 points over their last 3 (26 PPG). They will be without their top pass rusher Von Miller in this game. New England has scored at least 22 points in 7 of their last 9 games. As we mentioned, these 2 teams met 3 times last season and the average points scored in those games was 47.5 and that includes a 14-10 game late in the season with terrible wet and windy weather. It’s going to be cold in Boston on Thursday night but no precipitation. With Buffalo favored by 4 here, the projected final score is around 24-20 and we expect both teams to top those totals. Over is the play. |
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11-27-22 | Packers v. Eagles UNDER 46.5 | Top | 33-40 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
#273/274 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 46.5 Points – Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - Unders have been cash money in the NFL this year hitting at 57% with an average total points scored sitting at 43.8 points. This one is nearly 3 full points above that number and we just don’t see it. Green Bay has struggled offensively all season long. They rank 26th in points scored per game at 18.4 and their games are averaging 40 total points per game. The Pack have scored on just 29% of their offensive possessions this season which is the 2nd worst mark in the NFL behind only Denver. They are facing a Philly defense that has given up 17 points or fewer in 7 of their 10 games this season. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles offense has been trending downward. They have scored just 38 total points in their last 2 games while averaging just 289 YPG (vs Washington & Indy). Both teams will be looking to run often here as the defensive weakness of each team is stopping the run. Philly runs the ball 51% of the time (5th most in the NFL) and GB is not very good at stopping the run. The Packers have leaned on the running game more as of late rolling up over 200 yards rushing in 2 of their last 4 games. Running the ball will eat clock and shorten this game. Green Bay is one of the slowest paced teams in the NFL (29th) and the Eagles are middle of the pack in that category. The extended forecast calls for rain in Philly on Sunday and we like this one to land Under the total. |
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11-27-22 | Falcons +4 v. Commanders | Top | 13-19 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Falcons +4 vs. Washington Commanders, 1 PM ET - It’s interesting to note that despite Washington having a winning record and the Falcons a losing one, their +/- point differential is nearly the same. In fact, Atlanta ranks higher than Washington in overall DVOA rankings. Three of the Falcons 6 losses this season have come by 4 or less points, four of six have come by 6-points or less. Washington is coming off a 13-point win over Houston after a huge upset in Philadelphia the week before. On the season the Commanders have six wins but 4 of those have come by 6-points or less. In terms of yards per play, the Falcons average 5.6YPP offensively and give up 6.0YPP. Washington averages just 5.5YPP on offense and gives up 5.1YPP. The Falcons ball control offense that features a rushing attack averaging 159.3RYPG should be able to keep this game close throughout. Washington is 6-4-1 ATS their last eleven when coming off a win but their average Margin of Victory in those games is -2.4PPG. Atlanta is 9-6 ATS their last 15 when coming off a loss with a negative differential of -1.1PPG. This one shapes up to be a field goal game for either team so we’ll grab the points. |
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11-24-22 | Patriots v. Vikings -2.5 | Top | 26-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
#109/110 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Vikings -2.5 over New England Patriots, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Patriots 6-3 SU their last nine games but only 2 of those wins have come against a team with a winning record and that’s the Jets. The other 4 wins in that stretch come against teams with a combined 14-26 SU record. That ties into the fact the Pats have played the 21st easiest schedule according to our rankings. In contrast, the Vikings are 8-2 SU on the year, yet have faced the 9th toughest schedule to date. We can bang on the Vikings all we want but the fact of the matter is they’ve found ways to win. 3 of their last four wins have been quality W’s with victories over 7-3 Dolphins, 7-3 Bills and the 6-5 Redskins. New England is 4th in the league in YPG allowed and 6th in yards per play allowed at 4.9. But again, how much of that is a byproduct of playing the Steelers, Jets twice, Colts who rank 26th or worse in yards per play gained. Minnesota doesn’t have impressive overall statistics with an offense that averages 5.3 yards per play and 338YPG but they’ve also faced some of the leagues better defenses. Home/road numbers support the Vikings. Minnesota has a net +0.3 yards per play differential at home, the Pats are negative at minus -0.4. Minnesota had won 3 straight at home prior to an embarrassing home loss to the Cowboys last week so expect a rebound here. |
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11-20-22 | Cowboys -120 v. Vikings | Top | 40-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 7 m | Show |
#471 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas Cowboys PK -120 over Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - The oddsmakers and market are telling us something here. Dallas is favored @ Minnesota despite losing @ Green Bay last week, while the Vikings were upsetting Buffalo on the road. The Vikings have just 1 loss on the season and are undefeated at home yet Dallas is favored and the line has moved very little. We like the Cowboys to win this one. They will be motivated after losing in OT last week and this is a huge game for them as they sit in 3rd place in the NFC East behind Philly and NY Giants. Meanwhile Minnesota has a huge lead in the NFC North with Green Bay and their 7 losses sitting in 2nd place. The Vikings simply aren’t as good as their record might indicate. They’ve been fortunate going 7-0 SU in one score games and they are #2 in the NFL in turnover margin. In they key YPP margin metric they rank 23rd and Minny is getting outgained both on a YPP and YPG basis despite their 8-1 record. They are undefeated at home but those wins have come vs Arizona, Chicago, Green Bay, and Detroit who have a combined 14-26 record. Dallas should be fresh as they had a bye leading into their GB game and despite their loss last Sunday, they’ve covered 13 of the last 18 times they’ve been tabbed a favorite. The Boys have a big edge defensively (allowing 0.8 YPP less than Minnesota) and should be edgy on that side of the ball after a poor performance last weekend. We like Dallas to get the win and cover on Sunday. |
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11-20-22 | Jets +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
#359 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Jets +3.5 over New England Patriots, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We were on the Pats a few weeks ago when they traveled to NY to face the Jets. New England was -3 in that game and won 22-17 but we were a bit fortunate as they Jets outplayed them. NY has 100 more yards and averaged nearly 3.0 YPP more per snap than the Patriots. The Jets made some key mistakes with 3 TO’s, a missed FG, and they were shut out on downs inside the Patriot 30 yard line. After being favored by a FG on the road, this line is very telling with New England now only 3.5 at home just a few weeks later. The Jets are better offensively (5.3 YPP to 5.2 YPP), better defensively (4.8 YPP allowed to 5.2 YPP allowed) and they’ve played the tougher schedule thus far per Football Outsiders (2nd highest SOS to 17th for New England). New York steps into this game with some serious momentum winning 5 of their last 6 games including a win over Buffalo in their most recent game prior to their bye last week. Their defense has been fantastic holding their last 6 opponents to an average of 15 PPG with 5 of those teams scoring under their season average. The Patriots offense ranks 26th in the NFL and in their meeting a few weeks ago NY held them to just 288 despite the loss. New England is also off a bye and Belichick was once great off a bye with Brady at QB. However, in his 2 years without Brady as his QB, the Pats lost both of their games off their bye week vs lower tier QB’s Drew Lock and Carson Wentz. NY is a perfect 4-0 ATS on the road this year and they get their revenge here after drastically outplaying New England a few weeks ago. Take +3.5. |
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11-17-22 | Titans v. Packers UNDER 41 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -107 | 44 h 5 m | Show |
#311/312 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 41 Points – Tennessee Titans vs Green Bay Packers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Not idea weather conditions in GB on Thursday night with cold temps in low 20’s with a wind chill in the teens and 15 MPH winds. The Tennessee offense continues to struggle ranking dead last in offensive YPG. The only team they’ve outgained this year in Houston who ranks 29th in total offense. The Titans haven’t gotten to 20 points in any of their last 4 games and they are averaging a league low 24 yards per drive. They run the ball as much as anyone with 54% of their plays coming on the ground and that won’t change here vs a Packer defense whose weakness is vs the run. GB’s offense looked much better last week vs Dallas putting up 28 in regulation with almost 25% of their total yards coming on 2 big TD passes from Rodgers to rookie WR Watson. We’re still not sold on this GB offense that was averaging just 12.5 PPG offensively (minus defensive points) the previous 4 games including just 9 points vs a terrible Detroit defense. The Titan defense has held 6 straight opponents to 17 points or fewer in regulation including a KC offense that ranks 1st in the NFL in scoring. These are 2 very slow paced teams as well ranking 29th (GB) and 32nd (Tenn) in tempo so we don’t expect many offensive plays in this one. On top of that, both teams will lean on their running game which eats clock. We think there is a solid chance neither team gets over 20 points here so we like the UNDER. |
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11-14-22 | Commanders v. Eagles UNDER 43.5 | Top | 32-21 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
#265/266 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43.5 Points – Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Philly defense is one of the best in the NFL allowing just 4.7 YPP (2nd) and they are facing a Washington offense that averages just 4.9 YPP (28th). The Commanders are averaging just 17 PPG on the season and they have topped that number just ONCE in their last 7 games. Over that 7 game stretch Washington is averaging just 14.8 PPG and one of those games was vs Philadelphia who held them to 8 points. The only TD Washington scored in that first meeting with the Eagles – a 24-8 loss – was with under 2 minutes remaining in the game. While the Commanders offense has been poor, their defense has been quite respectable. They have not allowed more than 21 points in any of their last 5 games with 4 of those going Under the total. The key to slowing down the Eagles offense is to limit their potent rushing attack and Washington is very solid vs the run. In the first meeting this year, the Commanders held Philadelphia to 72 yards rushing which makes them the only defense this season to hold the Eagles under 100 yards on the ground. They also held them to 24 points which is the 2nd lowest total for Philly this year. The Eagles have a tendency to get a lead in the first half and then eat clock in the 2nd half, shortening the game. To that point, Philly leads the NFL averaging 21 PPG in the first and but only put up 8 PPG in the 2nd. We anticipate this type of game tonight with the Eagles laying 11 points, we like them to get out to a lead and then eat clock in the 2nd half. Since the start of the 2020 season, these 2 have met 5 times and scored an average of 38 points in those games with none topping 44. We like the Under tonight. |
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11-13-22 | Cowboys v. Packers UNDER 43 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 24 m | Show |
#261/262 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43 Points – Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Green Bay’s offense is struggling mightily and now they face off against the best defense in the NFL per Football Outsiders DVOA. The Packers are averaging just 12.5 PPG over their last 4 games (minus defensive points) and they have not topped 17 points offensively during that stretch. Aaron Rodgers has no weapons on the outside and they continue to be banged up at WR with Doubs out along with Watkins and Lazard questionable. On top of that RB Jones is questionable and 3 of their 4 starting offensive lineman didn’t practice on Wednesday. In all, 8 of Green Bay’s 11 starting offensive players missed practice or were very limited this week. There is also not enough being made about Rodgers thumb injury as he has been missing practice and his numbers have plummeted since getting hurt. Prior to the thumb injury he was completing 68% of his passes with 11 TDs, 3 interceptions and a passer rating of 95. After the injury his numbers are 61% completion rate with 6 TDs, 4 interceptions and a passer rating of 81. If Green Bay could only score 9 points last week vs a Detroit defense ranked dead last in YPP allowed at 6.4 how are they going to score points vs Dallas who gives up 4.8 YPP? On the other side, we expect Dallas to run the ball a lot eating clock here. They run the ball almost 48% of the time (8th in the NFL) and teams are running on GB over 50% of the time (most in the NFL) because they struggle to stop the run (26th in the NFL). Same could be said with GB’s offense. Dallas weakness defensively is stopping the run and with all of the injuries the Packers have out wide, they will run as much as possible. On top of that, Dallas is #1 in the NFL in sack differential at +21 so they can put pressure on the QB which is bad news for Rodgers if the Packers abandon the running game which we have a hard time believing they will. Both defenses rank in the top 5 in the NFL vs the pass this season as well. Cold temps in Green Bay on Sunday with highs in the mid 30’s and 10 MPH winds. These teams are a combined 11-5-1 on the year to the UNDER with Green Bay games averaging 38 total points and Dallas games averaging 40 total points. This one should be lower scoring and we’ll grab the UNDER |
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11-13-22 | Browns v. Dolphins OVER 49 | Top | 17-39 | Win | 100 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
#251/252 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 49 Points – Cleveland Browns vs Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Two of the better offenses in the NFL facing off here with the Browns ranking 4th and the Dolphins 5th in total offense. Football Outsiders DVOA ranks these 2 offenses 2nd (Miami) and 5th (Cleveland) while they have the defenses ranked 24th and 27th. Cleveland is coming off a bye following their 32 points output vs a very good Cincinnati defense. We expect them to have a great offensive gameplan with 2 weeks to get ready and they are facing a Miami defense that has allowed at least 24 points in 5 of their last 6 games. The Fins are allowing opponents to score an average of 2.2 points per drive which is 26th in the NFL. The Miami offense is humming with Tua back under center. They are averaging 24 PPG on the season, however in games that Tua starts and completes the Fins are putting up 29 PPG. The Browns defense has decent (middle of the pack) overall numbers however they’ve faced the 25th best schedule of offenses thus far. They’ve allowed at least 23 points in 6 of their 8 games and 30+ points in 3 games. Miami will be the highest rated offense Cleveland has faced this year. They’ve faced only 1 other team ranked inside the top 10 in total offense and that was the Chargers who put up 30 on this defense. Cleveland is allowed 2.21 points per drive which is 27th in the NFL. The weather looks perfect for scoring in Miami on Sunday with temps in the 80’s and light winds at 5 MPH. The implied final score based on this total is right around Miami 26, Cleveland 23. We expect both to top those numbers. Over in this one. |
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11-10-22 | Falcons v. Panthers +2.5 | Top | 15-25 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
#114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Carolina Panthers +2.5 over Atlanta Falcons, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 just met on October 30th in Atlanta with the Falcons going off as a 4.5 point favorite. The Birds won the game 37-34 in OT but were outgained on both a YPG (+72) and YPP (+0.4) basis in that game. Now they are on the road and laying 2.5 points just 2 weeks later. Based on the line on October 30th, the Panthers should be a slight favorite here but they are getting nearly a FG. We like the value with Carolina in this one. Panther QB Walker had 317 yards passing, a career high, vs a leaky Atlanta defense that allowed 6.1 YPP (31st in the NFL). He should have plenty of confidence in this rematch just 2 weeks later. In his lone home start this season, Walker and the Panthers rolled over the Bucs 21-3 and it wasn’t a fluke as they outgained Tampa by +2.0 yards per play in that win. They take on an Atlanta team that is 0-4 SU on the road this year, getting outgained in each game by a combined 592 yards or an average of -148 YPG. Despite their 4-4 record, the Falcons have been outgained by an average of -0.8 YPP which ranks them 29th in the NFL. Carolina ranks 18th in YPP margin at -0.11. Atlanta has been a dog in every game but one this season (first match up with Carolina) and now they are laying points on the road for just the 4th time since the start of the 2019 season. We’ll take the better defense (Panthers 17th in YPP defense, Atlanta 31st) as a home dog in prime time. |
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11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints +1.5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
#474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans Saints +1.5 over Baltimore Ravens, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - MNF road favorites are 0-2 ATS this season and just 2-9 ATS since the start of last season. We like this match up for the Saints and feel they are undervalued due to their 3-5 SU record. They are better than that record indicates. They’ve been quite unlucky in the turnover category this season ranking dead last in the NFL turnover margin at -9. Meanwhile, the Ravens have been very fortunate in that category ranking 2nd in the NFL in TO margin at +6. That fact is, teams that win the TO battle for a specific game win close to 80% of the time so the numbers above for the Saints & Ravens have factored in heavily to their current records. In large part because of that Baltimore has played above their estimated win total thus far of 4 (based on advanced stats of each game) and New Orleans has played below their estimated win total which is also 4. We expect the TO’s to even out so to speak for each team moving forward. The Saints, despite their 3-5 record, are actually 6th in the NFL in YPP margin at +0.64 and the 6 teams ahead of them all have winning records with the exception of SF which is 4-4. The combined record of the 5 teams ahead of the Saints in this key category is 30-10. Baltimore ranks 11th in YPP margin despite their superior record. New Orleans is +75 YPG this season while the Ravens have actually been outgained by about 5 YPG this season. We like the way New Orleans is playing right now outgaining 4 straight opponents including Cincinnati and Seattle who rank 10th and 11th in total offense. The defense is coming off a shutout holding the Raiders scoreless last weekend and they’ve held 3 straight opponents to below their season average in YPG. The offense is humming averaging 31 PPG over their last 4 and they’ve hit at least 399 total yards in 3 of those 4 games. Baltimore’s pass game took a huge hit here with leading receiver TE Andrews declared out so they will have to rely even more on the running game tonight (starting RB Edwards most likely out as well) vs a Saints defense that ranks 11th in the NFL in rush defense. We think the Saints are the better team and getting points at home. Take it. |
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11-06-22 | Titans v. Chiefs -12 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
#472 ASA top play on 10* KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -12 vs Tennessee Titans, 8:20 PM ET - The Titans 5-2 record is very misleading for several reasons: They have been outgained in every game but one and have a negative Net Yardage differential of -0.6Yards Per Play. Their 5 wins have come against teams with a combined 13-22 record. Their two losses to winning teams the Bills (by 34 and Giants by 1-point). They were +10 at Buffalo (similar to KC) and lost by 34. KC 4-3 ATS last seven off a bye with a +14PPG differential. Titans QB Tannehill is ? with an ankle injury. If he can’t go that means rookie QB Malik Willis will start, and he was 6 of 10 last week for 55 yards with an INT and is not a threat in the passing game. Tennessee got a huge rushing game from Derrick Henry last week but that was against the Texans defense that is last in the NFL in rushing defense. That won’t happen here against a Chiefs defense that is 3rd in the NFL in rushing D at 92YPG allowed. Kansas City and Mahomes should put up huge numbers with their 2nd ranked passing offense (296PYPG) versus the 24th ranked Titans pass D (254.7PYPG). |
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11-06-22 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 46 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
#453/454 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 46 Points – Buffalo Bills vs NY Jets, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Divisional Unders have been lights out this year hitting nearly 70% with a record of 27-12-1 to the Under. We have 2 of the top defenses in the NFL in this game with Buffalo ranking #4 in total defense and the Jets #6. Offensively the Jets have been poor with Zach Wilson at the helm. The Bills are top 5 in both sack percentage and sacks per game and Wilson has been terrible under pressure this season. He has the lowest passer rating when pressured in the entire NFL among starting QB’s. NY has scored just 33 total points the last 2 weeks vs New England and Denver. Now facing a top tier Buffalo defense that hasn’t allowed more than 21 points to anyone this season, we see the NY offense continuing to struggle. The Buffalo offense is 2nd in the NFL in scoring at 29 PPG however they got a huge jump on the season in that stat scoring 72 points in their first 2 games. Since then, Buffalo has gotten to 30 points just once in their last 5 games and they are averaging 26 PPG during that stretch. They are facing a Jets defense that hasn’t allowed more than 22 points in any of their last 5 games and they are giving up only 15 PPG over that span. The Jets have gone Under the total in 3 straight games and Buffalo has gone Under 5 consecutive games. Jets games average 42 total points this season and Buffalo’s average 43 total points and this total is set at 47. These 2 teams have combined to play 15 games this season and only 4 have gone Over the total. Since 2019 these AFC East rivals have met 6 times and the average points scored in these games is 37. Only 1 of those 6 meetings has topped 44 points and 4 of the 6 have totaled 37 or less. Under is the play here. |
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11-03-22 | Eagles v. Texans UNDER 45.5 | Top | 29-17 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
#309/310 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 45.5 Points – Philadelphia Eagles vs Houston Texans, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Eagles are 2 TD favorites here so we anticipate them building a lead and sitting on it as they’ve done often this year. The lead the NFL in first half scoring at 21 PPG, however once they get a lead they grind it out averaging just 7 PPG in the 2nd half which ranks them 27th. Philly already runs the ball over 51% of the time ranking them 5th in the NFL and we expect an even heavier dose of the ground game tonight vs the Texans 32nd ranked run defense. That should eat clock especially in the 2nd half with the lead if things play out as planned. Houston’s offense will have big problems scoring against one of the top defensive units in the NFL. The Texans rank 29th in scoring at 16 PPG and they’ve only topped 20 points once the entire season. In their 2 games vs top 10 defenses this season (Denver & Indy) the Texans averaged just 14.5 PPG and 260 YPG. Those were their first 2 games of the season and since that Houston has played 5 teams with defenses ranked 15th or lower. Tonight they face a Philly stop unit that ranks 3rd in total defense, 2nd in YPP defense, and has allowed an average of 13.8 PPG over their last 6 games. Houston games are averaging 39 total points this season while Philly games are averaging 45, both under this posted number. These two are both slower paced teams ranking 19th and 21st so plays should be limited here especially if the Eagles build and lead and milk the clock. We anticipate this game landing in the low 40’s and we’ll grab the Under. |
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10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns UNDER 45.5 | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
#277/278 ASA PLAY ON Under 45.5 Points – Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Cincinnati defense has quietly become one of the best in the NFL this season. Ranked 6th overall DVOA (per Football Outsiders) and they’ve allowed 20 points or fewer in every game (in regulation) with the exception of their match up vs New Orleans. The impressive part about their defensive performance this season is they’ve faced the 8th toughest offensive schedule thus far. We expect this defense to have success vs a Cleveland offense that started the season red hot but has tailed off scoring 20 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games. In their last 2 contests, the Browns have scored a total of 35 points and averaged just 332 total yards vs defenses ranked 23rd (Baltimore) and 15th (New England). The Browns will run the ball a lot (32 carries per game – 5th in the NFL) and they will be without TE Njoku who has become QB Brissett’s favorite target with 34 receptions on the season. The Cleveland defense has been up and down this season but they get two huge contributors back tonight with DE’s Garrett and Clowney both expected to play. They’re coming off their most impressive defensive performance of the season holding a very potent Baltimore offense to just 254 total yards on only 4.0 YPP. Their weakness this season has been vs the run but last week kept Baltimore (3rd in the NFL in rushing) to only 3.6 YPC. We’re not sure Cincinnati can even take advantage of Cleveland if they do struggle to stop the run here as they run the ball very little (36% of the time) and they average just 87 YPG on the ground. The Bengal passing game takes a huge hit with WR Chase out – top 6 in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TD’s. Division Totals 25-10 to the UNDER entering Sunday and we’ll call for another one on Monday night. |
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10-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 42 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
#273/274 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 42 Points – San Francisco 49ers vs LA Rams, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We were on this UNDER the first time these 2 met this season back in September and we’re on it again. In that game the total was set at 42 points and it was an easy Under with SF winning 24-9. The 2 teams combined for only 584 total yards on 4.7 YPP. This rivalry has now played to the Under in 5 of the last 6 meetings and they’ve averaged just 40 total points in those 6 games. The defenses are the superior units on both teams. They both rank in the top 5 in total defense and they know each other very well. San Fran is coming off by far their worst defensive performance of the season allowing 44 points to a potent KC offense so you can expect the Niners stop unit to play with a chip on their shoulder here. Prior to that SF was allowing only 14.8 PPG. The Rams defense has been lights out as well since their opening season loss to Buffalo where they allowed 31 points. Since that game LA is giving up only 19 PPG. Offensively the Rams have fallen off a cliff this season averaging only 17 PPG (29th in the NFL) after putting up 27 PPG (6th in the NFL) last year. San Francisco isn’t a whole lot better averaging just over 20 PPG on the season and they will be without one of their top offensive weapons, WR/RB Deebo Samuel, who will sit with an injury. In the first meeting Samuel accounted for 117 to SF’s 327 total yards. The Niners offense has faced only 2 top 10 defenses this season (current ranking) and they have averaged just 17 PPG in those 2. The Rams have faced 3 top 10 defenses this season and they have scored only 29 total points in those games (9.6 PPG). Division Totals are 25-10 to the Under this season and we see another low scoring game here. |
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10-30-22 | Cardinals +3.5 v. Vikings | Top | 26-34 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 59 m | Show |
#263 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Cardinals +3.5 over Minnesota Vikings, nday at 1:00 PM ET - The Vikings are seen to have a scheduling advantage here as they are coming off a bye but it’s very minimal at best because Arizona played last Thursday so they’ve had 10 days off as well. The Vikings are 5-1 SU but they’ve been extremely fortunate to get to that mark. They rank 27th in the NFL in YPP differential at -0.67 despite playing an easy schedule (20th SOS thus far). The only teams they’ve faced that currently has a winning records are Philadelphia and the Vikings were dominated in that game (24-7 loss) and Miami (Vikings won by 8) who actually outgained Minnesota by over 100 yards and had to start rookie Thompson at QB. Since getting toasted by KC in the opener, the Cardinals have outgained 5 of their last 6 opponents. Their offense has some momentum coming in off a 42 point outburst vs a solid Saints defense and facing a bad Minnesota defense (27th in total defense) we expect the Arizona offense to have a very solid day. That success coincided with the return of their top WR Hopkins who had over 100 yards receiving in his first game back from suspension. QB Murray is very comfortable with him and has much better numbers when Hopkins is on the field. Also home field advantage is limited at best in Arizona games as they are a much better road team than a home team. They have a 10-2 SU regular season road record since the start of last year and as a road underdog the Cards have covered 8 straight as a road dog winning all 8 games OUTRIGHT. We feel Minnesota is overvalued here and getting more than a FG with Arizona is the way to go. |
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10-27-22 | Ravens v. Bucs UNDER 46 | Top | 27-22 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
#101/102 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points – Baltimore Ravens vs Tampa Bay Bucs, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - TB’s offense is broken right now. They rank 22nd in total offense, 26th in scoring offense and 32nd, dead last, in rushing offense. They have been held to 20 points or less in 5 of their 7 games and the last two weeks they scored 18 vs Pittsburgh (ranked 28th in total defense) and 3 points vs Carolina (ranked 18th in total defense). Their games this season are averaging just 35 total points. The Baltimore defense is allowing 23 PPG, however much of that game in a game they allowed 42 points vs Miami early in the season when the Fins were coming from behind and put up 28 points in the 4th quarter. Minus that game the Ravens defense has been quite solid giving up an average of 19.8 PPG. The Baltimore offense got off to a hot start this season but they have not topped 23 points in any of their last 4 games, all going Under the total. These 2 teams have combined to play 14 games this season with only 3 going Over the total. With the spread as of this writing sitting at TB -1, the expected final score would be right around 23-22 or 24-22 in favor of the Bucs. We don’t see either team getting to those numbers. Under on Thursday night. |
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10-24-22 | Bears v. Patriots -8 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
#476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New England -8 over Chicago, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Pats are better than their 3-3 record as they rank 7th in the NFL in YPP differential. They’ve outgained 4 of their last 6 opponents with Green Bay and Miami their only opponents to outgain them. Starting QB Mac Jones looks like he will return tonight, however if for some reason he does not back up QB Bailey Zappe has really played well and last week he put up over 300 yards passing and completed over 70% of his passes. Chicago will be in trouble offensively here vs a Patriot defense that has allowed 15 points over their last 2 games. They’ve outscored their last 2 opponents 67-15 and the defense has allowed just 4.9 YPP over their last 2 games vs Detroit (ranked 2nd in total offense) and Cleveland (ranked 5th in total offense). Now they face a Chicago team ranked 28th in total offense so we just don’t see the Bears doing much on that side of the ball. Chicago has scored 12 points or less in 3 of their last 5 games and the only 2 games they topped that number was vs Houston (ranked 31st in total defense) and Minnesota (ranked 26t in total defense). The Patriots have scored 24 or more in 4 straight games and that’ll be enough to get this cover. Belichick is 62-32 ATS in October and we look for his defense to own Chicago and QB Fields in this game. Lay the points. |
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10-23-22 | Chiefs v. 49ers +1 | Top | 44-23 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
#470 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco 49ers +1 over Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We love looking strong and hard at defensive home dogs and we have one here. The 49ers defense has been outstanding this season ranking 1st in total defense and 2nd in passing defense, rushing defense, and scoring defense. They are allowing opposing teams to run just 5.3 PLAYS in the red zone this season which is tops in the NFL. San Fran is also getting some reinforcements back on that side of the ball (DE Joey Bosa included) after a number of players missed last week. The Niners are also coming off an embarrassing loss @ Atlanta last week but it was a tough situational spot playing back to back Sundays on the east coast AND the injury situation for SF last week was not good. Offensively they get LT Williams, one of the best in the NFL, back this week which is huge. They also picked up RB McCaffrey from Carolina and he will be in the line up this week, especially in red zone situations. QB Garoppolo and company should have plenty of success vs a banged up KC secondary that has allowed 75% of their opponents yards to come through the air (most in the NFL) and has given up at least 2 TD passes in every game this season, they only NFL defense to do that. SF comes in undervalued with a 3-3 record but they’ve been a bit unlucky with injuries this season. The fact is, they have the 2nd best YPP differential in the NFL behind only Buffalo so they are absolutely better than their record. They are getting a KC team here coming off their huge game vs Buffalo and in their most recent 2 road games the Chiefs lost @ Indianapolis and beat a down Tampa team despite getting outgained by 1.0 YPP in that game. Under head coach Shanahan, the 49ers have covered the spread 15 of the last 20 times they’ve been an underdog. We like them on Sunday. |
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10-23-22 | Bucs v. Panthers UNDER 39.5 | Top | 3-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
#461/462 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 39.5 Points – Tampa Bay Bucs vs Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - This line opened 41 and has dropped to 39.5. Not enough in our opinion. How many points is Carolina going to score in this game? They just traded away their 2 top offensive weapons – RB McCaffrey and WR Anderson – and they’ll be starting 3rd string QB PJ Walker again this week. Last Sunday they scored only 3 points offensively as their lone TD came on an interception. McCaffrey accounted for 158 of their 203 total yards and he is now in San Francisco playing for the Niners. Starting QB Walker has completed only 57% of his passes in his NFL career and last week he threw for 60 yards vs the Rams. He’s now facing a TB defense that ranks 7th in pass defense and opponents are averaging just 5.6 yards per pass attempt (5th best in the NFL). The Panthers have scored a total of 63 points over their last 4 games for an average of 15.7 PPG. However, they have also scored THREE defensive TD’s during that stretch so their offense is actually averaging a paltry 10 PPG and they are in far worse shape offensively right now than they were for any of those 4 games. So why not just lay 13 points with Tampa Bay in this game? We don’t trust their offense. Last week vs a Pittsburgh team that was without many of their key players in the secondary, the Bucs could only score 18 points. They have been held to 21 points in every game but one this season and they can’t run the ball (last in the NFL at 67 YPG). Carolina’s strength has been their pass defense allowing 223 YPG on 6.6 yards per pass attempt. The Tampa offense ranks 21st in YPG and PPG despite playing 4 defenses ranked 15th or worse including 2 ranked 27th (TB scored 21) and 29th (TB scored 18). Tampa probably has to get to 30+ to give this game a chance at going Over the total and we just don’t see that happening. We go Under here. |
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10-20-22 | Saints v. Cardinals UNDER 44.5 | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 34 m | Show |
#303/304 ASA TOP PLAY ON Under 44.5 Points – New Orleans Saints vs Arizona Cardinals, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Saints were without 7 offensive starters to end last game and could struggle here vs a surging Arizona defense. New Orleans is in shambles at the WR position with Thomas and Landry most likely out again. Olave looks like he may come back. Both QB’s for the Saints – Winston & Dalton – are injured and were limited in practice and they’re on a short week. Arizona’s defense has played outstanding the last 3 weeks limiting their opponents to 12, 20, and 19 points. The last 2 results listed were impressive holding 2 top 8 scoring offenses, Philly & Seattle, well below their season average point totals. Along with that, the Cardinal defense limited Seattle to just 4.5 YPP (they average 6.2 YPP) and Philadelphia to 5.0 YPP (they average 5.6 YPP). We look for New Orleans banged up offense to struggle here. On the other side, the Arizona offense has been poor all season long. Last week they averaged only 4.4 YPP and scored 3 offensive points vs a Seattle defense that ranks 30th in total defense and YPP allowed. The only TD Arizona came up with was a defensive scored. They rank dead last in the NFL in YPP at only 4.8. They do get WR Hopkins back for this game from a suspension but he hasn’t played all year so we don’t expect a huge jump. While Hopkins returns, the Cardinals lose WR Brown to injury and he has been their top WR this year so those 2 things offset each other. New Orleans defense is much healthier than their offense at this point. They have given up some points over the last 3 games vs Cincinnati, Seattle, and Minnesota but they are still limiting opponents to 2.5 red zone scoring attempts per game and 1.2 red zone TD’s per game which both rank 5th best in the NFL. They’ve been a bit unlucky allowing opponents to score 1 point for every 13 yards gained which ranks them 31st in that category after ranking 6th last year (1 point for every 16 yards gained by opponents). We think the Saints defense will look much better in this game vs one of the worst offenses in the league so far this season. Unders continue to rule the day in the NFL with a record of 56-36 (61%) on the season and this total is set 2 points higher than the average NFL score in 2022 which is 43 total points. Under is the play on Thursday night. |
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10-17-22 | Broncos +4.5 v. Chargers | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
#275 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Denver Broncos +4.5 over LA Chargers, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Denver steps into this one with a 2-3 SU record with their 3 losses coming by a combined 13 points and 2 of those losses coming by a FG or less. Their overall offensive numbers are decent rating as average in both YPP and YPG. The problem is they’ve struggled in the redzone and their efficiency numbers (1 point for every 22.9 yards) is at the bottom of the NFL. We don’t expect that to continue. We look for those numbers to start to even out and Denver will put points on the board. This looks like a game where that may happen as the Broncos have had 11 days off to make some changes after playing on Thursday night and they are facing an LAC defense that ranks 31st in scoring. LA just allowed their last 3 opponents (Jax, Houston, and Cleveland) to score 38, 24, and 28 points. The Chargers offense has put up some good numbers but 3 of the 5 opponents they’ve faced rank 25th, 27th, and 30th in scoring defense and 4 of the 5 stop units they’ve played rank outside the top half in DVOA per Football Outsiders. The one top 10 defense they’ve faced was Jacksonville and the Chargers were held to 10 points in that game. Now we don’t expect anything like that tonight, but Denver’s defense is the best LAC has faced ranking 3rd in total defense and 4th in defensive DVOA. They also rank 3rd in the NFL in pass defense which matches up nicely with the Chargers pass heavy offense. LA is banged up on the offensive line with 3 starters potentially out and at WR as Allen will most likely sit again. In a division game we like the much better defense in what we think will be a tight game. Getting more than the key numbers of 3 and 4, it’s a go for us on Denver +4.5. |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles -6 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
#274 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Eagles -6 or -6.5 over Dallas Cowboys, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - This is a rough situational spot for Dallas as they played the Rams on the west coast last weekend and now they are in Philly on the east coast this weekend. It’s also their 3rd road trip in the last 4 weeks. It looks like Dallas QB Prescott will be sidelined again for this game leaving it up to back up Cooper Rush who was solid the first 2 weeks but struggled a bit last week in LA as teams have more film on him. Rush threw for only 102 yards last week, had 10 first downs, and Dallas only averaged 4.5 YPP. They picked up a defensive score which helped them to a 22-10 win. So just 14 points on offense which won’t get it done here vs a potent Eagle attack that ranks 2nd in total offense and 5th in scoring. The Dallas defense has been superb this year, however they haven’t faced a top notch attack yet. The offenses they’ve faced so far this season rank 20th, 21st, 22nd, 25th and 26th in total offense. They’ve faced one mobile QB this season (NYG Daniel Jones) but Philadelphia QB Hurts has been playing at a completely different level and we look for the Cowboy defense to struggle here. Despite their 4-1 record, Dallas has been pretty luck as they are actually getting outgained by -13 YPG and outrushed 4.2 YPC to 4.7 YPC. The Eagles are every bit as good as their 5-0 record outgaining opponents by +121 YPG with the 2nd best point differential in the NFL behind only Buffalo. The Eagles are definitely the better team here, in the much better situation, and will be motivated after getting rolled by Dallas twice last season. Anything under a TD we’ll lay in this one. |
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10-16-22 | Panthers v. Rams UNDER 41.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
#267/268 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 41.5 Points - Carolina Panthers vs LA Rams, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Two of the worst offenses in the NFL go at it in this one. Football Outsiders DVOA have these offenses rated 31st (Carolina) and 26th (LA). The Panthers rank dead last in the NFL in total offense (YPG) and the Rams rank 26th . When it comes to scoring the Rams are averaging only 16 PPG (28th) and Carolina has put up 18 PPG (24th). Both defenses are better than the opposing offenses. Carolina did give up a season high 37 points to San Francisco last weekend, however the Niners scored on an interception return for TD and a 3-yard TD drive after Carolina was stopped on downs. Prior to that the Panthers were allowing just 21 PPG in their first 4 games. They should fare much better than that here vs a Rams offense that has fallen off a cliff this season. LA has been held to 10 points or less in 3 of their 5 games this season. Their only halfway decent offensive performance was vs an Atlanta defense that ranks 27th in the NFL. On the other side of the ball the Rams should have lots of success on defense. They are facing 3rd string QB PJ Walker in this one who steps in for an injured Baker Mayfield. Since giving up 31 points to Buffalo in the season opener, the LA defense has allowed just 5 offensive TD’s in their last 4 games. If we subtract the defensive & special teams TD’s, the Rams are allowing only 15.75 PPG over their last 4 games. Carolina has been held to 16 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games and they rank dead last in the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate. We can’t imagine they’ll improve with Walker at QB. Under is our play here. |
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10-16-22 | 49ers v. Falcons +4.5 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
#266 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Falcons +4.5 over San Francisco 49ers, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - A terrible spot here for the Niners. They played last week @ Carolina and came away with a 37-15 win and had to stay on the east coast this week taking on Atlanta. Their 37 points last week was a bit deceiving as they had a defensive TD and a 3 yard drive late in the game when Carolina was shut out on downs. The defense was successful as well facing a bad Carolina offense that ranks 30th in the NFL averaging 4.8 YPP. This week will be tougher for this SF team facing a better Atlanta offense with a defense that is really banged up. 3 of their 4 starting defensive linemen including Bosa, their top LB, and a few DB’s, including Mosely their top corner, all out here. The SF defense is #1 in the NFL vs the run this season, however with all the injuries up front they will take a step back here vs an Atlanta offense that ranks 4th in the NFL averaging almost 170 YPG on the ground. The Niners have also had problems with mobile QB’s this season. They’ve faced just 2 QB’s with similar mobility to Atlanta’s Marcus Mariota and lost both of those games vs Denver (Russell Wilson) and Chicago (Justin Fields). The last 2 teams they’ve played, Rams & Panthers, rank 32nd and 28th in rushing so today will be a big adjustment for this banged up SF defense. Atlanta perfect vs the spread (5-0 ATS) and their biggest loss this season was by 6 points last week @ Tampa. This one will be close and we’ll grab the points. |
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10-10-22 | Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 51.5 | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 51.5 Points – Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - This has been an extremely high scoring series as of late with each of the last 4 getting to at least 55 points. The last 4 meetings between these two AFC West rivals have averaged 62.5 PPG. KC’s offense looks a bit different without WR Hill, however they have still been extremely efficient scoring 1 point for every 11.9 yards gained which is tops in the NFL. They have scored at least 27 points in 3 of their 4 games and they’ve already topped 40 points twice this season. Mahomes has been brilliant when he starts vs the Raiders scoring at least 30 points in all but 1 game with an average of 37 PPG. He should light it up again tonight vs a LV defense that ranks 28th in opponent completion percentage, 27th in yards per pass attempt allowed, and 24th in YPG allowed through the air. This will be the worst pass defense Mahomes has faced this season. Can the Raiders keep up here? That will be the key because we don’t want KC to get out to a big lead and milk the clock. We think they can. Vegas has scored at least 22 points in 3 of their 4 games and they rank 8th in the NFL in scoring efficiency putting up 1 point for every 14.8 yards gained. QB Carr has been a bit up and down this season but he should play well tonight vs a KC defense that is allowing a completion rate of almost 71% (31st in the NFL) and one that ranks 27th in total pass YPG allowed. They’ve been able to move the ball on offense ranking 11th in YPG but they’ve stalled in the red zone with just a 44% rate once they get inside the 20 yard line. The Raiders have gotten into the red zone an average of 4.5 times per game which is 2nd in the NFL only behind tonight’s opponent the Chiefs. The weather is perfect in KC tonight with light winds and temps in the low 70’s. We expect lots of scoring opportunities tonight and this one goes OVER the total |
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10-09-22 | Cowboys v. Rams UNDER 42.5 | Top | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 19 m | Show |
#475/476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 43 Points – Dallas Cowboys vs LA Rams, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This total is currently set at 43 points which may seem low but the average points scored thus far in the NFL is 42.8 per game so this is a tick higher than the average. We think it should be set lower than this. The LA Rams offense has dropped off a cliff this year ranking 31st in YPP and 28th in total offense while averaging just 17.5 PPG. They have faced 2 top tier defenses this year in Buffalo and San Francisco and the Rams scored 10 & 9 points in those 2 games. This Dallas defense is on the same tier. They are allowing only 15.5 PPG on the season and they rank 2nd in the NFL giving up just 1 point for every 19.9 yards gained. The Dallas offense is not good. Cooper Rush will be playing his 3rd game at QB so teams now have some film on him and we look for him to struggle. The Boys rank 26th in total offense and average less than 18 PPG. The Rams D is middle of the pack in most key categories this year but we think they are better than that and they shouldn’t need to be great here vs a fairly pedestrian Dallas offense. Dallas games have averaged 33 total points this season and LA Rams games have averaged 41 total points, both below this total. We feel the defenses are the superior unit on both teams this season and we like UNDER the total in this one. |
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10-09-22 | Dolphins -3 v. Jets | Top | 17-40 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
#465 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Dolphins -3 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The Fins will be starting Teddy Bridgewater at QB in this one and that’s not a bad thing. He’s a veteran and really could be a starter in this league and his ATS record under center is spectacular at 42-21 ATS. Bridgewater stepped in vs Cincinnati after Tagovailoa was injured in their most recent game and he threw for 193 yards and a TD. The Jets have a 2-2 record but could easily be 0-4 as they rallied from 13 points down in the FINAL 2 MINUTES vs Cleveland for the 1 point win and rallied from 10 points down in the final 8:00 minutes to beat a bad Pittsburgh team last week. The Fins have played the tougher schedule and they are +0.3 YPPG differential compared to -0.3 YPP differential for the Jets who have played the easier slate. Miami won by 7 in both meetings last season and outgained the Jets by 778 to 608 in the 2 meetings combined. We’ve upgraded Miami this year while the NYJ power rating remains about the same. The Fins actually have the best record in the NFL since week 9 of last season with an 11-2 SU record tied with the Chiefs. The Jets are 2-2 but could easily be 0-4 as they scored 2 TD’s in the final 7 minutes last week to come from behind and squeak by a bad Pittsburgh team and they scored 2 TD’s in the final 2 minutes @ Cleveland to win by 1. Two weeks ago the Jets were +6.5 at home vs Cincy and lost by 12 and now only +3 vs Miami who we have rated as dead even vs the Bengals on a neutral field? Bad line and we like Miami, with extra time to prepare after losing their first game of the season last Thursday at Cincinnati, to win by more than a FG here. |
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10-06-22 | Colts v. Broncos UNDER 43.5 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 56 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 43.5 Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - NFL scoring as a whole is down this season with the average total points scored in a game being 42.8PPG. Last year at this same time NFL games were averaging 47PPG. In this contest we get two struggling offenses and two upper echelon defenses. The Colts are 25th in Yards Per Play offense this season at 5.0, Denver is 16th at 5.4. When it comes to total yards per game, passing YPG, rushing YPG and points scored these two teams rank in the bottom half of the league in nearly every statistical offensive category. When it comes to scoring, both teams have been awful with the Broncos averaging 16.5PPG (30th) and the Colts scoring 14.3PPG which is last in the NFL. When it comes to the all-important Yards Per Point statistics, these two are last and next to last in the NFL taking more than 20-yards to score 1-point. The defenses for each team are a different story though with the Colts allowing 297YPG (6th best) and the Broncos giving up 284.8YPG (4th). These two defenses don’t give up big plays either with Denver allowing 4.9-Yards Per Play, Indianapolis gives up 4.9. Denver is allowing 17PPG on the season, Indianapolis gives up 21.3PPG. The Colts are on a 9-0 Under streak their last nine games, Denver is Under in 11 of their last fifteen overall. |
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10-02-22 | Cardinals +1 v. Panthers | Top | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 27 h 27 m | Show |
#271 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Cardinals +1 versus Carolina Panthers 4 PM ET - Both 1-2 but the Strength of Schedule for both teams is drastically different. Arizona has played the 4th toughest schedule, Carolina the 30th. Carolina has been outgained in 2 of 3 games and barely outgained the Giants by +10-yards. Arizona has outgained 2 of 3 opponents this season and has put up 353 YPG despite facing two top tier defenses of the Chiefs and Rams. The Panther offense has struggled. They rank 30th in total YPG, 31st in passing and 14th in rushing. Carolina ONLY has 5 offensive TD’s this season. Against the Saints last week they managed just 293 total yards of offense, 12 first downs and 5.0YPPL. The Panthers defense is overvalued. Last week they allowed a Saints offense that has struggled this season to gain 426 total yards and 6.7YPPL. Carolina forced 3 TO’s though, one for a score. The Cardinals offense has gotten off to slow starts in games, getting outscored 13-56 in first halves this season. Cards QB Murray has played well completing 63.8% of his passes with 784 total yards, 3 TD’s to just 2 INT’s but they have just 1 explosive play on the season of 30+ yards. The Cardinals defense is 11th in stopping the run this season which is the Panthers strength. Their Pass Defense is 30th in the NFL but now they face Baker Mayfield (32ND worst QBR). The Panthers have owned the Cardinals in recent years with 6 straight wins, including last year’s 34-10 win. Last season the Cardinals were 7-point HOME favorites last year with Colt McCoy starting under center. Arizona is 19-6-1 ATS their last 27 regular season games as a ROAD DOG with 7 straight outright wins. Carolina is 3-10 ATS their last 13 as a favorite dating back to 2020. |
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10-02-22 | Chargers v. Texans UNDER 45.5 | Top | 34-24 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
#259/260 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 45.5 LA Chargers vs Houston Texans, 1 PM ET - Injuries have potentially derailed the Charger season with QB Herbert nursing a rib injury, DE Joey Bosa out with a groin injury and multiple O-line men out for the season. The injuries on the O-line have forced the Chargers to start two rookies who have been outmatched early on. With that thought in mind we expect a heavy dose of the running game for the Chargers as they try to protect Herbert and exploit the Texans weakness defensively. Houston is 32nd or last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game at 202.3 on 5.6-yards per rush given up. LAC has struggled to run the football at 2.6-yards per carry and 59-yards per game, but they’ve also faced the best rush D in the NFL in Jacksonville and the 9th best in KC. The Chargers have faced three quality offenses in Jacksonville (6th total YPG), Kansas City (7th) and the Raiders who are 18th so their points per game allowed of 28PPG is higher than it should be. Houston on the other hand is 29th in total yards per game gained at 287.3YPG, 25th in passing, 27th in rushing and 26th in PPG so don’t expect a huge scoring game from them. These two teams rank 19th and 23rd in Yards Per Point offense meaning they lack big plays and tend to grind out drives for scores. Both teams also rank in the bottom half of the league in explosive plays. |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -3.5 | Top | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 68 h 54 m | Show |
#102 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 over Miami Dolphins, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The team with a 1-2 record is favored by a FG over the team with a perfect 3-0 record? This is a very solid spot for the Bengals at home. They are in somewhat of a must win here as they are 1-2 and 3 of their last 4 games are away from home. They can’t afford to lose this one. They catch Miami in a terrible spot coming off a gigantic home won over division rival Buffalo. Not only that, the Fins defense has to be gassed here on a short week after facing a whopping 90 offensive snaps from Buffalo’s offense. It was 100 degrees on the field and the Miami defenders were dropping like flies with heat exhaustion, cramping, etc… This will be a very tough week for the Miami defense. On top of that, prior to their huge 21-19 win over Buffalo, the Dolphins had to make a huge rally on the road @ Baltimore scoring 28 points in the final 12:00 minutes of the game to squeak by the Ravens 42-38. Back to back physically and emotionally taxing games and now a short week on the road for Miami. Despite their win Miami was outgained 497 to 212 last week vs the Bills so they were quite fortunate to say the least. After losing 2 tight games to start the season vs Pittsburgh (Bengals had 5 turnovers) and @ Dallas (Bengals just played poorly), they picked up some momentum last week handling the Jets on the road 27-12. QB Burrow finally looked like a top tier signal caller with 275 yards passing and 3 TD’s along with by far his highest QBR of the season. Miami QB Tagovailoa is dealing with a back issue that may cause some problems on a short week. Lay it with Cincinnati. |
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09-26-22 | Cowboys v. Giants UNDER 39 | Top | 23-16 | Push | 0 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
#489/490 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 39 Points – Dallas Cowboys vs NY Giants, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Neither offense has looked good thus far with the Giants scoring 40 points in 2 games while Dallas has put up just 23 points. The Giants are averaging 5.0 YPP this season (20th in the NFL) and Dallas just 4.7 YPP (31st). With the Cowboys playing a back up QB (Rush) we expect them to keep the ball on the ground quite a bit tonight. The NY defense has been susceptible to the run this season allowing 4.9 YPC and look for Dallas to lean on RB’s Elliott and Pollard rather than a QB making his 3rd career start. The Giants already run the ball often averaging 33 carries per game which is 5th most in the NFL. Jones is an average at best QB who has averaged just 18 PPG in his 8 prime time appearances. Needless to say, we don’t expect either signal caller to light it up through the air tonight. Overall both defenses look like the stronger units in each team with each ranking in the top 10 in points allowed. Each has given up just 36 total points so far on the season. The ground games of each team will eat clock tonight and with the anticipated lack of big plays from the QB position, this game turns into a grinder. Take the Under. |
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09-25-22 | Eagles v. Washington Commanders +6.5 | Top | 24-8 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
#476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Commanders +6.5 over Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Look ahead here was Philly -3 and it’s jumped to 6.5 based on 1 data point for each team. Everyone watched Philadelphia roll over Minnesota on Monday night 24-7 and Washington lose at up and coming Detroit, thus the line move. The Vikings definitely had their chances in the 2nd half vs the Eagles throwing 2 picks in the endzone and another at the Philly 20 yard line. They are also on the road off short week with their Monday night win which is not ideal. IN their only road game thus far Philly nearly lost @ Detroit but pulled out a 38-35 win. While the Eagles offense has looked good averaging 31 PPG, let’s not forget Washington is averaging 28.3 PPG after 2 games and ranks 6th in total offense. Their 28-22 win over Jacksonville in week 1 looks like a solid win after the Jags rolled 24-0 over the Colts in week 2. Last year when these 2 faced off here in Washington, the Eagles were favored by 6.5 as well and won 20-16. The Commanders led that game at half 16-7 and continued to lead in the 4th quarter before losing close. Washington had Heinicke at QB for that game and the yardage was nearly dead even. Now with Wentz at QB we feel they have a shot to win this game outright and they’re getting nearly a full TD. While people bag on Wentz, he’s a big upgrade for Washington. He’s already thrown for 650 yards and 7 TD’s after throwing 27 TD’s and just 7 picks last year. The Eagles 3-7 ATS as favorite since start of 2020 season and we like the division underdog in a solid situational spot here. |
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09-25-22 | Bills v. Dolphins OVER 53 | Top | 19-21 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
#463/464 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 53 Points – Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Buffalo has put up 72 points in 2 games and we don’t see Miami slowing them down here. The Fins actually rank dead last in the NFL in YPP allowed at 6.8 and in opponent yards per pass attempt allowing 8.7. In 2 games last year vs the Fins the Buffalo Bills scored 61 points and we see no reason to think they won’t top 30 again. The difference this year? Miami’s offense looks like they’ll be able to keep up. They scored 42 points last week in a win @ Baltimore and QB Tagovailoa had 6 TD passes. The Fins put up a ridiculous 547 total yards in the game and they are tied with Buffalo with the 2nd best YPP offense in the NFL at 6.7. While the Bills defense has been solid, they faced the Rams with QB Stafford’s injured elbow and a Tennessee team that lost all of their key WR’s from last year and have downgraded fairly big on the offensive line. Sunday will be a different animal for the Buffalo defense to face and they are really banged up on the D Line and in the secondary with both starting safeties potentially out along with starting CB Jackson (out). Miami’s defense looked good vs a pedestrian New England offense (12 PPG on the season) but last week they were blitzed for 38 points vs Baltimore. Buffalo scored 41 points last week in the first THREE QUARTERS and then didn’t score after that because they had a huge lead. We don’t foresee the Bills shutting down Miami so both teams will have to keep scoring in this one. Over is the play. |
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09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4 | Top | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Browns -4 over Pittsburgh Steelers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Steelers offense has been abysmal the first 2 weeks of the season. They rank 30th in YPG & YPP and they’ve been outgained by 300 yards in their 2 games and they’ve scored just 2 offensive TD’s this season. They pulled out a tight win over Cincinnati in OT despite the Bengals turning the ball over 5 times including a pick 6. Even with the +5 turnover mark in that game Pittsburgh had to go to OT in that one. Last week they were topped by New England 17-14 but outgained by a full 1.5 YPP. The Pats missed a FG, punted from the Pitt 40 yard line and ended the game inside the Steeler 20 yard line. New England, after averaging just 5 YPP vs Miami in week 1, had some solid success offensively last week averaging 5.7 YPP. Cleveland is looking for a bounce back after blowing a home lead and losing to the Jets 31-30. The Browns were up 30-17 with under 2:00 minutes remaining in last week’s game and allowed NYJ to scored 2 late TD’s to pick up the win. Cleveland has outgained both of their first 2 opponents including on the ground where they are +255 yards through 2 contests. Pittsburgh has gained just 75 and 90 yards on the ground the first two weeks and they are -95 yards on the ground. That’ll play a huge factor here as we expect winds of 20+MPH for this game which means the rushing attack will be more important for each side. The Pitt defense is drastically different with TJ Watt out of the lineup and you could see that last week with 0 sacks vs the Pats. We feel the number gives us value as well. Cleveland was favored by -6.5 vs NYJ last week and now just -4.5 vs a Pittsburgh team that is no better than the Jets in our power ratings. Last year Cleveland was a 5.5 point favorite at home vs Pittsburgh and lost 15-10 and they pushed inside the Steeler 25 yard line on their final drive but were shut out on downs. We like Cleveland to cover this one vs a Steeler team we have tabbed as one of the worst in the NFL. |
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09-19-22 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 48.5 | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
#291/292 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 48.5 Points – Minnesota Vikings vs Philadelphia Eagles, Monday at 8:30 PM ET - First off the weather looks good tonight in Philly. It will be warm with highs in the upper 70’s with very light winds. There is a chance of rain but not much and if it does rain it looks spotty. Key is the wind (5 MPH) which won’t affect either passing game. Both offenses looked in midseason form last week with Philly putting up 6.3 YPP vs Detroit and Minnesota averaging 6.5 YPP vs Green Bay. The Eagles had 38 points through 3 quarters and took their foot off the gas up 17 which almost cost them. They didn’t put up a single point in the 4th yet still almost hit 40. Minnesota had 23 points vs GB but were able to rely heavily on the run after building a 20-0 lead. After getting up by 20, the Vikings ran another 26 offensive plays and 16 of those were runs as they were taking time off the clock. In the first half when using the full complement of their offense, Minnesota was able to score points in 3 of their 6 possessions including 2 TD’s. Neither defense was great at the line of scrimmage with each allowing more than 6 YPC last week. Now with both facing solid rushing attacks we should see similar results tonight which will really open up the passing attack on each side. Both teams were successful running the ball last week and that led to Hurts & Minny QB Cousins to combine for 41 completions in 64 attempts for 520 passing yards. And remember, Cousins was facing one of the top secondary’s in the NFL (Packers). We also expect a faster than normal paced game in this one. Last week Minnesota and GB each ran 61 plays and that was with the Vikings milking the clock in the 4th quarter and the Packers were the slowest paced team in the NFL last season and we expect them to look the same this year. Philly & Detroit ran a total of 138 offensive snaps in an up tempo game. The projected score at this total is Philadelphia 26, Minnesota 23 and our model has both of these teams scoring above those numbers. Over is the play tonight. |
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09-18-22 | Bears v. Packers -10 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 49 m | Show |
#288 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Green Bay -10 over Chicago, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - While this line may seem high, it’s really not. Green Bay was favored by 11.5 at home last year and won by 15. Chicago played host to a San Francisco team with an inexperienced QB last week (Lance) and the Niners were laying 7 in that road game. The Bears won the game 19-10 but they were dominated on the stat sheet. San Fran outgained Chicago by 1.3 YPP and the Bears only put up 204 total yards with 50 coming on one play. The 49ers also completely controlled the line of scrimmage outrushing the Bears 4.7 YPC to 2.9 YPC. The terrible weather in that game really helped Chicago ugly up the game and hang around in the first half (down 7-0) when they had only 68 total yards at halftime. The Packers lost big in Minnesota but played better than the final score indicated. A couple of big pass drops on offense could have changed the entire game. GB won the line of scrimmage averaging 6.2 YPC but were only able to run the ball 18 times because they got behind 17-0 at half. As we mentioned SF was able to run the ball last week with success on Chicago which we expect GB to do but we also have Aaron Rodgers at the helm rather than Trey Lance. Rodgers has a 20-7 lifetime ATS record vs the Bears and GB has won each of the last 4 meetings by double digits. The Packers have also been huge money makers coming off a loss with a perfect 11-0 ATS record their last 11 games in that situation. This is a huge home game for Green Bay with Tampa on deck. That cannot afford to lose this one and we expect to see them at the top of their game here. We’ll lay the points. |
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09-18-22 | Dolphins v. Ravens UNDER 44.5 | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
#263/264 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 44.5 Points – Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - These 2 met last year and it was a 22-10 grinder won by the Fins. We expect a similar situation on Sunday. Both of these teams were slower paced the first week of the season with Miami ranking 31st in pace and Baltimore 27th after one game. The Ravens ranked 20th in pace last year so that should stay the same throughout this season. Miami was middle of the pack a year ago but their new head coach McDaniels loves to run the ball and we anticipate them in the bottom third in pace this season. In their first game, the Dolphins put up just 20 points vs New England and 7 of those came on a defensive TD. Defensively they looked really good holding the Pats to just 7 points on 271 total yards (5.0 YPP). The Baltimore offense put up 24 points last week but gained only 274 total yards. They held the Jets to 9 points and while NY had 380 total yards, almost 200 of those yards came when Baltimore was up 24-3 and the game was out of reach. The Jets only averaged 4.8 YPP for the game. In their meeting last year, the Fins and Ravens combined to average only 4.9 YPP and there were 16 punts in the game. There were only 25 points scored by the offenses in that game with Miami returning a fumble 50 yards for a TD. There were 27 possessions in the game and 20 of those last 6 plays or fewer. The defenses dominated that game and we expect the same here. Baltimore loves the run the ball (3rd in carries per game last year) and we look for the Dolphins to run a lot this year with a new scheme from McDaniels whose known as one of the top run game coordinators on the NFL. Running eats clock and shortens the game. These 2 have faced off 6 times since 2014 and only one of those games topped 44 points. The projected score on this game is Baltimore 24, Miami 21 and we don’t expect either team to reach their number. Under is the play. |
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09-15-22 | Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 24 m | Show |
#103/104 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 54.5 Points – LA Chargers vs KC Chiefs, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - KC scored 44 points by themselves last week vs a really banged up Arizona defense so many will be rushing to bet this Over based on that result alone. We think there is value on the Under in this one. A division game on a short week would lend itself to the Under when the total is set this high. Thursday night NFL totals set higher than 51 have gone Under the total at a 68% rate lifetime. Being division rivals, these 2 teams know each other very well. Last year they totaled 54 and 62 points although the 2nd game was in OT. However, a closer look reveals both games were looking like sure Unders but both teams piled on points late in each game. In the 2 games combined these two rolled up 31 total points with less than 2:30 remaining in regulation (and OT). That means that 27% of the scoring in those 2 games came with less than 2:30 left in the contest. While many will focus on the offensive numbers from last week we were impressed with both defenses. KC held a very potent Arizona offense to just 282 total yards on 4.5 YPP. The Cards had only 7 points entering the 4th quarter when the game was already out of reach. The Chargers defense held an upgraded Las Vegas offense (added WR Adams) to 19 points on 320 total yards. The LA offense was far from spectacular with 24 points on 355 total yards. Thus, three of the four units in this game (LA offense, LA defense, and KC defense) have us looking Under this week and we don’t expect the KC offense to put up nearly 500 yards and 44 points again this week vs a much better defense (and healthier defense). Under is the play in the AFC West game. |
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09-11-22 | Bucs v. Cowboys +2.5 | Top | 19-3 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Dallas Cowboys +2.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:20 PM ET - Tom Brady has some of the most impressive numbers of all time, but do you know who has a lifetime undefeated record? Father time! Brady is dealing with some off-field family distractions and is now 45-years old. He’s playing behind a rebuilt offensive line missing 3 starters and he doesn’t do well when pressured. Did you know the Cowboys had the 2nd best DVOA numbers last season behind only the Bills. The Cowboys pass defense was 2nd in the league in both Opponent Completion Percentage at 59.65% and Opponent Average Passer rating at 76.2. The Bucs can’t rely on their running game which was 26th in the league last year averaging 96.3 rushing yards per game. The Cowboys can lean on Elliott and the running game here with the 9th best rushing offense in the NFL a year ago at 122YPG. Dallas can use their passing attack to soften up a stout Tampa rush D as the Bucs were 24th in passing yards allowed per game at 245.3. The Cowboys were the 4th best passing offense in the NFL last season at 279.4PYPG. The Cowboys have been home underdogs 6 times since 2018 and they’ve covered every one of those games winning outright by an average of +13.7PPG. Grab the points. |
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09-08-22 | Bills v. Rams UNDER 52 | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 52 Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - This is obviously a huge marquee showdown between two teams capable of winning it all in 2022-23 and excitement is high for the start of the season. The oddsmakers know it and have set this number slightly higher than it should be. With that in mind we will play Under here in a game our computers are predicting 48 total points scored. Before we talk about the teams let’s address points or scoring in the NFL. Scoring in the NFL dropped last season after teams averaged 24.8PPG two years ago when there weren’t fans in the stands due to Covid. That in turn made it easier for QB’s to audible and there were fewer offensive penalties. Last season we saw a return to the norm or 23PPG per team or 46-total points per game. Those numbers are more in line with 2013-2019 numbers. Both teams are slightly faster in pace than average (Rams 11th, Bills 14th) but they clearly aren’t overly fast by league standards. When it comes to defense, these two teams are two of the best in the league. The Bills were 1st DVOA last season, the Rams finished 5th. The Bills had the 11th best Yards Per Point defense in the NFL, the Rams were 13th. The Bills allowed the least number of points per game a year ago at 18.3PPG, the Rams were 9th best giving up just 21.3PPG. Both teams have big play capability on offense with Josh Allen and Matt Stafford but in the opener, we see both defenses dominating. Take the value and UNDER in this one. |
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02-13-22 | Rams -4 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -101 | 37 h 43 m | Show |
#101 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -4 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - The Rams have quietly had a dominating run through the playoffs vs very solid opponents. They have outgained the Cards, Bucs, and Niners by a combined 1200 yards to just 824 for their opponents. Their defense has dominated, holding those opponents to an average of 4.7 YPP and just 18 PPG. To give you an idea of how good those numbers are, Buffalo led the entire NFL this year allowing opponents to average 4.8 YPP. Cincy, on the other hand, has allowed 5.9 YPP in the playoffs while gaining only 5.3 YPP. They’ve been outgained in all 3 games yet still won. Their offense has had 34 possessions in the post-season and scored only 5 TD’s. And those were vs defenses all inferior to this LA Rams unit. They’ve benefited from a +5 turnover margin in the playoffs which has kept them alive. We just don’t see the Bengals doing much offensively here. They’ll struggle to run vs a Ram defensive front that hasn’t allowed a single TEAM in the playoffs to reach 65 rushing yards. If the Bengals are forced into obvious passing downs, the Rams defensive front is the best in the NFL at creating pressure while the Cincinnati offensive line is one of the worst pass protecting units in the league. The Rams are built for the Super Bowl. They’ve had a number of key player additions this season (QB Stafford, WR Beckham & LB Miller to name a few) in their quest to get to this point. This was their goal from the beginning of the season. Cincinnati wasn’t expected to be here and based on their stats thus far in the playoffs, they probably shouldn’t be here. LA lost in the Super Bowl a few years ago and are accustomed to this spot. Cincy is not and had to travel for the 3rd straight time in the playoffs. We don’t think the Rams will have a home field advantage per se, however not having to travel is a bonus. If the turnovers stay even in this game, we have little doubt the Rams win and cover this number. Of course, we have no way of projecting that and TO’s are a huge predictor in the outcome. There is often little to no value so to speak in the Super Bowl line or total. That stands again this year as we have LA favored by exactly 4 with our power ratings. Despite that, we’ll simply side with the better overall team who proved they deserve to be here. |
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01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 42 m | Show |
#322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -7 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 3 PM ET - Cincy’s path to this point has been less than impressive. They topped the Raiders by a TD at home in the Wild Card round despite getting outgained in the game on a YPG and YPP basis. Last week they went to Tennessee and won on a last second FG but that game was more or less gifted to them. The Bengals were dominated in the stats getting outgained by 1.4 YPP in the game but the Titans had 3 interceptions which killed any chance they had. The offense has been fairly pedestrian in those 2 games averaging 5.0 YPP and 5.4 YPP. They’ve scored just 1 TD in their last 18 possessions and their offensive line is a sieve allowing 11 sacks in the first 2 playoff games. The Bengals are +4 TO’s in those 2 games which is why the are still standing. KC, on the other hand, is rolling offensively averaging 7.4 YPP vs Pittsburgh and 7.6 YPP last week vs the #1 defense in the NFL. They scored 42 points in each of those 2 games and we see Cincinnati will have a tough time keeping up. Some may fear a possible letdown for KC after last week’s crazy win over Buffalo which many people felt should have been the AFC Championship game but we don’t think that happens. The Chiefs have won 11 of their last 12 games and their one loss was @ Cincy late in the year (lost 34-31) and blew a 28-17 first half lead. They will be focused in this one. We love the experience advantage with Mahomes and Reid playing at home in their 4th straight AFC Championship game vs a team, coach and QB who has never been this far in the playoffs. Teams on the road in the Championship round who won a road game the previous week are just 13-28 SU & 17-24 ATS as this is a very tough situation to be in. Mahomes is a perfect 8-0 SU in playoff games when Brady isn’t the opposing QB and will be very comfortable in this spot. KC wins and covers at home and moves on to another Super Bowl. |
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01-23-22 | Rams v. Bucs OVER 47.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 48 h 22 m | Show |
#315/316 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 48 Points – LA Rams vs Tampa Bay, Sunday at 3 PM ET - These 2 met earlier this year and the total was set at 55 points and the final score was Rams 34, Bucs 24 and the 2 combined for almost 900 yards of offense. This total is set a full TD lower which is too large of an over adjustment in our opinion. Our numbers have this total at 51 so value on the Over. Tampa is the 2nd highest scoring home team in the NFL averaging 33 PPG and that’s including a game where they were SHUT OUT by New Orleans. If you take out that one game vs the Saints, the Bucs scored at least 30 points in every other home game and averaged almost 38 PPG. Last week they had 31 points vs the Eagles with over 5:00 minutes to go in the THIRD QUARTER but had a huge lead, called off the dogs and didn’t score again. The Rams lit up the Cards last week for 34 points and in a similar situation to Tampa, 28 of those 34 points were scored with still over 4:00 minutes remaining in the third quarter and because they had such a big lead the Rams were able to dial it back and run clock on offense. The Rams were able to run the ball effectively last week once they got the lead (38 rush attempts) but that may change this week. Tampa is very good vs the run (3rd in the NFL) so we look for LA to air it out. The strength of both offenses is their passing attack (TB #1 in YPG passing and LA 5th) and the weakness of both defenses is vs the pass (TB 22nd in YPG passing allowed and LA 21st). Tampa played a lot of up tempo offense last week vs Philly and we expect the same here. Both teams like to push the pace with the Bucs ranking 4th in pace of play and the Rams 11th. Tampa games averaged 51 total points this year and LA averaged 49 total points and this total is set lower than both. Weather looks good in Tampa and we envision this one as a game where each offense needs to keep up on the scoreboard. The projected final based on the spread and total is Tampa 25.5, LA 22.5 and we have both offenses topping those projections. Take the OVER in this one. |
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01-22-22 | Bengals v. Titans -3 | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -3.5 over Cincinnati, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Cincy heads out on the road after their first playoff win in over 30 years last weekend. It was a rather unimpressive 26-19 win over the LV Raiders, who actually outgained the Bengals 385 yards to 308 yards and 5.4 YPP to 5.0 YPP. Two huge turnovers cost Vegas in that game as one turned into a Cincinnati FG and another took away the potential game tying TD late in the game at the Bengals 9 yard line. One thing that stuck out like a sore thumb to us in that game was Cincinnati’s inability to stop the run. The Raiders ran for 7.4 YPC in that game. Not a good trend now facing a very good running team (Titans 5th in the NFL at 141 YPG rushing) and Tennessee expect RB Henry back in the line up. On top of that, the Bengals lost 3 key DT’s in last week’s game, one is definitely out this week and the other 2 are highly questionable. The Titans not only get Henry back on offense, they will have both their top WR’s Jones & Brown in the line up for just the 8th time this season. The first 7 game they were able to team up, Tennessee was 6-1 SU. The Titans defense played outstanding down the stretch holding 6 of their last 8 opponents to 17 points or less and they allowed only 16.8 PPG in home games this season. We also give Tennessee a big coaching edge here with Mike Vrabel who is a perfect 8-0 SU & ATS when his team has at least 8 days of rest. Cincy’s coaching staff and players are new to the playoff scene and after a win last week where they didn’t perform all that well, they now take the road vs a veteran playoff team and coaching staff. Many are questioning the legitimacy of the Titans as a #1 seed but they have a very solid resume topping both of the top 2 teams in the AFC, the Bills & Chiefs, this year. Rested home teams in the Divisional round are 100-34 SU since 1988 and that continues here. We’ll lay the points with Tennessee. |
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01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams UNDER 49.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
#151/152 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 49.5 Points – Arizona vs LA Rams, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The first 2 meetings had totals set at 51 & 54 points and both went Over. Now the total for this 3 match up is set lower than the first 2 despite the first 2 going Over? Hmm… In what would be a surprise to most, both of these defenses rank higher in DVOA (5th & 6th) per Football Outsiders than do their offenses. In their weighted DVOA, which doesn’t look at the entire season but more so how the teams have performed as of late, the Cards rank 18th offensively and the Rams 14th. Since WR Hopkins was lost a few weeks ago the Cardinals have averaged only 20.7 PPG over their last 4. Prior to QB Murray’s injury, the Arizona offense was averaging 31 PPG and has been far less dynamic since his return averaging just 23 PPG. The Rams defense has held each of their last 6 opponents to 24 points or less in regulation. Over the last 10 games LA is allowing just 22 PPG and that’s with their QB Stafford throwing FOUR pick 6’s! Take out those and the Rams are allowing only 19 PPG during that stretch. Both these teams know each other very well and with the 3rd meeting of the year, we’re expecting a lower scoring game. The projected final of this game is LA 27, Arizona 23 and our simulations have both teams falling just short of those numbers. Take the Under tonight. |
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01-16-22 | Steelers v. Chiefs -12.5 | Top | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 48 h 38 m | Show |
#150 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -12.5 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - Pitts key numbers say they shouldn’t even be in this position. In fact, they say this team is a below .500 type team. The Steelers are the only team in the playoffs with a negative point differential and a negative YPP differential. When these two met a few weeks ago KC dominated and we don’t see anything changing here. The Chiefs won the game 36-10 and led 23-0 at halftime. They outgained the Steelers by nearly 1.5 YPP and by more than 4.0 yards per pass attempt. Pittsburgh rebounded after that loss to beat Cleveland (who looked like they had given up on the season) and Baltimore in OT (Ravens played back up QB). Pitt was outgained in 7 of their last 8 games and they simply don’t have the offense to keep up here. The KC defense allowed just 10 PPG over their last 6 home games and the Steelers rank 25th in offensive DVOA per Football Outsiders and aren’t particularly good at running (24th) or passing (24th). They were held to 20 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games while KC topped 30 in 4 of their last 5 games. Pitt will want to run the ball and control the clock to keep Mahomes off the field. That’s what they wanted to do the first game as well but when you get behind quickly (23-0 at half in first meeting) that plan goes out the window. We see a similar situation on Sunday night. Double Digit favorites in the Wild Card round are a perfect 5-0 ATS since 2001 and we see another ATS winner being added to that record. Lay it with the Chiefs. |
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01-15-22 | Raiders +6 v. Bengals | Top | 19-26 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
#141 ASA PLAY ON Las Vegas +6 over Cincinnati, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - Many feel this might just be a letdown spot for the Raiders coming off a Sunday Night OT win over the Chargers, a game they needed just to get to this point. However, it’s the playoffs and we don’t see a letdown coming in this one. Is it an ideal situation? No but it’s no different than a team playing on Monday night during the regular season with a turnaround game on Sunday. We don’t feel Cincy is in a position to be laying nearly a TD here. They have a young QB who has never been in the playoffs and a head coach who has never coached in the playoffs. The Raiders have been in a win or go home mode for weeks now and they’ve responded with 4 straight wins, including @ Indy and vs the Chargers last week. They are used to this situation. For the season Vegas has a better YPP differential (+0.5 to +0.4) and a better YPG differential (+25 YPG to +11 YPG) despite playing the much tougher schedule (LV SOS was 8th and Cincy was 30th). The Bengals did beat Las Vegas when they met this season but the 32-13 final score was very misleading. The game was 16-13 with less than 6:00 minutes remaining in the game. Neither team did much offensively both getting held under 290 total yards. Home favorites of -7 or less in the wildcard round have been terrible for nearly 20 years (14-28 ATS). We expect a tight game here with both offenses playing it conservatively (neither team has been in the playoffs as of late). |
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01-09-22 | Chargers v. Raiders OVER 48.5 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
#481/482 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 48.5 Points – LA Chargers vs Las Vegas, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - This one is for all the marbles. The winner makes the playoffs and the loser is eliminated. Charger games average 54 total points which is the most in the NFL. This offense is clicking to say the least 28 points in each of their last 4 games. LA has gone Over the total in 5 straight games and 8 of their last 10. While their offense is one of the best in the NFL, their defense has been one of the worst ranking 30th in rushing defense, 23rd in overall defense, and 26th in scoring defense. Over their last 10 games only 1 team failed to reach 21 points on this LA defense and that was Denver last week with Drew Lock at QB. If you throw out the Chargers first 4 games of the season where the defense seemed to be playing pretty well, they have allowed an average of 29 PPG over the last 12. The Raider defense has decent overall numbers but their solid defensive performances have come vs poor offenses. Just in the last 10 games they’ve faced 4 offenses ranked 20th or lower in scoring (Washington, NY Giants, Denver, and Cleveland) and allowed an average of 17 PPG. In their other 6 games (over the last 10) Vegas has allowed 33 PPG including giving up 48 & 41 to KC, 33 to Dallas, and 32 to Cincinnati. LV is a middle to upper half of the NFL type offense in YPG (11th), YPP (9th) & PPG (18th) but we like them to have success at home here vs a defense that has struggled. Both teams pull out all the stops offensively in this win or go home game and it goes OVER the total in perfect playing conditions in Las Vegas. |
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01-09-22 | Patriots -6 v. Dolphins | Top | 24-33 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 47 m | Show |
#455 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New England -6 over Miami, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is a tough week to handicap the NFL as we all know. Who plays their starters if they’ve already clinched a playoff spot? Which teams that are eliminated are still giving effort and who isn’t? Covid situation? We can look to past experience for this one and know that for the most part, Belichick plays his starters late in the season and still plays to win. That’s what we expect from the Pats. On top of that, they do still have something to play for as a win here + a Buffalo loss gives New England the AFC East title. If there is a team that could possibly tank it in this game it’s Miami. They were in the playoff race until last week and now have been eliminated with their 34-3 blowout at the hands of Tennessee. The Fins looked as if they were playing very well entering that game on a 7 game winning streak but they played a bunch of nobodies during that run including the Jets (twice), Texans, Panthers, and Giants. As soon as they stepped up in competition last week they were whitewashed in a game they had to win. They’ve taken care of business vs the teams they were supposed to beat covering 6 of their last 7 as a favorite. The Pats only 2 losses since mid October were vs the Bills & Colts, 2 of the best teams in the AFC. This is also a revenger as Miami won at New England in the season opener 17-16. The Patriots dominated the stat sheet in that one (+145 yards) and it was QB Jones first start of his career. The better team with motivation rolls here. |
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01-08-22 | Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 45 | Top | 28-24 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
#477/478 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 45 Points – Kansas City vs Denver, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - KC has clinched the AFC West already but they do still potentially have something to play for. If they win and Tennessee loses @ Houston (unlikely) the Chiefs can move up to the #1 seed. We love the way KC’s defense is playing right now. The only 2 poor outings they’ve had over their last 9 games were vs the Bengals & Chargers, two of the better offenses in the NFL. In their other 7 games the KC defense has not allowed more than 17 points and they held 4 of those opponents to 10 points or less. The Denver offense has been terrible as of late scoring 13 or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Bridgewater is out at QB for the Broncos and his back up Lock has done nothing the last 2 weeks. They’ve scored 13 points in each of their last 2 games while totaling 158 yards vs Las Vegas and 319 yards vs the LA Chargers who have one of the worst defenses in the NFL (26th in scoring defense). In their last 5 meetings with the Chiefs the Broncos have scored an average of just 10 PPG and they haven’t topped 16 points in any of those games. Earlier this year they scored only 9 points @ KC in a 22-9 loss. Denver will struggle to score here vs this hot KC defense. The Broncos defense is the strength of their team to say the least. They rank 9th in total defense and 3rd in points scored allowing just 18 PPG. They’ve had some solid success vs Mahomes and company holding them to 23 or less in 3 of the last 4 meetings. The only chance Denver has is to make this a very slow paced type game which they are used to ranking 29th in the NFL in that category. KC may play fast early but if they get a lead they are known for milking the clock in the 2nd half (15th in 2nd half pace) in that situation. The Under is 5-1-1 the last 7 in this AFC West rivalry and we expect another one here. |
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01-03-22 | Browns +3 v. Steelers | Top | 14-26 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
#131 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland +3 over Pittsburgh, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Line value here on the Browns. They were favored by 3 in this game before officially getting eliminated from the playoffs and the line has moved to the Steelers now favored. This move is assuming the Browns will lay down here with no post-season ahead for them. We disagree. Cleveland would like nothing better than to knock of their AFC North rivals as Pittsburgh battles for a potential playoff berth. To add to their potential motivation this is also a revenger with Pittsburgh winning 15-10 on Oct 31st. The Browns are fairly healthy and the better team in this match up. Cleveland ranks 15th in the NFL in offensive YPP and 8th in defensive YPP. The Steelers rank 27th and 25th in those categories. Despite Pitt still being alive for the playoffs they have a -0.7 YPP differential while the Browns are +0.4 in that category. This is a bad match up for Pittsburgh’s defense as they rank 31st at stopping the run and they are facing a Cleveland offense that ranks 3rd and put up 219 yards on the ground vs Green Bay last week. They actually outplayed the Packers in Lambeau (6.2 YPP to 5.4 YPP for Packers) but had 4 turnovers. The Steelers have been a terrible favorite this year (1-5 ATS) while the Browns have been a money maker as an underdog (4-2 ATS). With the cold weather in the Steel City tonight, we like the underdog that can run the ball vs the favorite who can’t (Pitt 29th in rushing). Take the points. |
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01-02-22 | Dolphins v. Titans -3 | Top | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
#120 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -3 over Miami, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Miami has won 7 in a row to get back into the playoff discussion but they’ve played a brutally easy for the season (29th SOS) and especially as of late. Those wins came vs Jets twice, Houston, NY Giants, Carolina, New Orleans and Baltimore. Minus the Ravens, the QB’s they’ve faced during this run were Ian Book, Zach Wilson, Mike Glennon, Cam Newton and Tyrod Taylor. They’ve played 15 games this yar and only 6 of those opponents are in playoff contention. The Fins are 2-4 SU in those games with one of those wins coming by 1 points vs New England in the season opener and all 4 losses coming by double digits. Average margin in those 6 games is -12.5 PPG for Miami. The Titans have the better record (10-5 – Miami 8-7) despite playing the much tougher schedule (2nd SOS). While Miami has struggled vs good competition, Tennessee has wins over Buffalo, KC, Indy (twice), LA Rams, and San Francisco. This situation sets up very nicely as well with Tennessee having extra time after beating SF on a Thursday while the Fins have a short week off a win @ New Orleans on Monday night. Tennessee’s defense should be able to make Miami one-dimensional in this game as the Fins can run (30th in the NFL) and Tennessee is very good at stopping the run (2nd in the NFL). Thus, this game could fall on the shoulders for Miami QB Tagovailoa and we don’t trust him on the road vs a defense that is playing well holding 6 of their last 7 opponents to 22 points or less. Lay it with Tennessee. |
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12-26-21 | Washington Football Team v. Cowboys UNDER 47 | Top | 14-56 | Loss | -109 | 37 h 53 m | Show |
#479/480 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 47 Points – Washington vs Dallas, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - These 2 met just 2 weeks ago and the final score was a misleading 27-20 in favor of the Cowboys. The 2 had combined for just 35 points with under 6 minutes remaining in the game when Washington scored 2 TD’s in the last 5:09 including a pick 6. Dallas also scored a TD on a fumble return earlier in the game. The fact is the defenses dominated in this game. Dallas averaged just 4.1 YPP while Washington put up only 3.6 YPP. Neither passing game was effective with Dallas barely throwing for 200 yards on 5.4 yards per attempt and Washington throwing for only 124 yards on 3.2 yards per attempt. Washington has gone under the total in 80% of their games with the total set at 45 or higher (8-2 to the Under). Dallas is viewed by many as a team that is involved in high scoring games more often than not but the fact is they have topped this total (47) only once in their last 8 games. A big NFC East game with playoff implications (Dallas trying to win the division & Washington trying to stay alive in the playoff race) equates to a low scoring defensive game. Take the UNDER on Sunday night. |
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12-26-21 | Bears v. Seahawks UNDER 42 | Top | 25-24 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 59 m | Show |
#473/474 ASA TOP PLAY ON 9* Under 42 Points – Chicago vs Seattle, Sunday at 4 PM ET - The Chicago offense has been brutal all season long ranking 29th in scoring, YPG, and YPP. They have topped 24 points only twice this season and are facing a surging Seattle defense that has given up 23 points or less in 8 straight including 20 last week vs a very good LA Rams offense. They rank 4th in the NFL allowing just 20 PPG on the season so we expect them to shut down Chicago’s offense. On the other side Seattle has really struggled offensively. They have scored an average of just 15 PPG (offensive points) since Russell Wilson returned from injury. As we mentioned above, Chicago’s offense ranks 29th in YPG well Seattle sits one spot lower at 30th in that category. Neither offense is good at extending drives ranking 30th and 31st in 3rd down conversion rate. These 2 have combined to play 28 games this season with only 8 going Over the total. We’re looking at possible snow and wind in Seattle on Sunday afternoon and we expect a low scoring grinder. Under is the play. |
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12-25-21 | Colts v. Cardinals | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 44 m | Show |
#456 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona "pick-em" over Indianapolis, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Great line value with the Cardinals here. We’re laying only 1 point (some spot are at pick-em) with Arizona at home. The line is short because Arizona is coming off 2 straight losses including one vs a bad Detroit team last Sunday. They outgained both LA (by 91 yards) and Detroit (by 61 yards). Last week they were shut out on downs at the Detroit 3, 9, and 30 yard lines. A week earlier vs Rams they were shut out on downs at the LA 14 & 37 and threw a pick at the LA 4 yard line. As you can see they’ve had their chances. On the other end, Indy beat a red hot New England team at home last week. Buy low (Arizona), sell high (Indy) here. To put this number is perspective, let’s look at some of Arizona’s home game spreads and some of Indy’s road game spreads. The Cards were favored by 3 points vs the Rams just a few weeks ago. They were also favored by -6 vs SF and -6.5 vs Green Bay. Indy was +7 @ Buffalo a few weeks ago, +3.5 @ SF, and +7.5 @ Baltimore. You get the point. Football Outsiders DVOA has these teams ranked dead even (8th and 9th) so no home field advantage is factored into this line. These 2 have played nearly identical SOS’s and Zona is +54 YPG and +0.4 YPP while Indy is +18 YPG and +0.1 YPP. Arizona has been the better team for most of the season and now because they’ve had back to back down games, we’re getting them basically as a pick-em at home. Cards win this one. |
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12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans UNDER 44.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
#451/452 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 44.5 Points – San Francisco vs Tennessee, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - The Titans offense has been flat out bad since they lost Derrick Henry. Over their last 5 games they’ve averaged just 16 PPG and 3 of those games were vs opponents who ranked 22nd or lower in scoring defense (Pitt, Houston, and Jacksonville). They are one of the least explosive teams in the NFL averaging just 2.6 plays per game that average 20+ yards (fewest in NFL). On top of that Tennessee will be without 2 starting offensive linemen for this game. At the same time their offense went south, the Titans defense started to play very well. They have allowed an average of just 19 PPG over their last 6 games holding 5 of those opponents to 22 point or less. SF has been one of the top defenses in the NFL all season long ranking 7th in total defense and 9th in DVOA defense per Football Outsiders. Both are rush heavy teams which eats clock. Tennessee ranks 3rd in the NFL running the ball on 47.6% of their offensive snaps while San Fran ranks 4th in that category at 47.8%. Both teams are also slow paced ranking 25th and 27th in seconds per play. We expect this to be a defensive battle and UNDER is the play. |
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12-21-21 | Seahawks +7 v. Rams | Top | 10-20 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
#337 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle +7 over LA Rams, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Seattle is fairly healthy for this game, with the exception of WR Lockett, while we still don’t know who is in or out for the LA Rams due to Covid protocols. It looks like LA’s TE Higbee and a starting OL will most likely miss this one along with a few key defensive players. LA won the first meeting @ Seattle by 9 but that was the game QB Russell Wilson injured his finger and he sat out the entire 2nd half. Geno Smith took played a significant role for the first time since 2017 and Seattle still only lost by 9. Wilson is now back and getting healthier every week. The Seattle offense, which really struggled when Wilson first came back, has now put up 63 points the last 2 weeks. Their season long offensive stats are misleading with Wilson sitting out 3.5 games and not being fully healthy when he did come back. The defense has been flying under the radar but playing very well allowing 23 points or less in 8 straight games. They’ve won 2 straight including a win over a very good San Francisco team 2 weeks ago. The Rams seem to have gotten back on track after a 3 game losing streak but we’re not so sure. They beat Jacksonville 2 weeks ago in a win that doesn’t mean much as the Jags are terrible and obviously had internal problems. Last week they beat Arizona but were outgained by almost 100 yards in that game. The Cards then proceeded to lose @ Detroit by 18 points so maybe that LA win over Arizona wasn’t what it was made out to be. The last 6 games in this NFC West rivalry have all had a spread of 3 points or less. Now we’re getting a full TD with Seattle. For comparison’s sake, Seattle was +3 @ Green Bay in Wilson’s first game back from injury. This number is too high. The Rams overvalued losing 5 of their last 6 ATS as a favorite and 7 of 10 as a chalk this season. Seattle keeps this close. |
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12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 44 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
#331/332 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 44 Points – Minnesota vs Chicago, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Minnesota offense has to be licking their chops entering this game facing a Chicago defense that has struggled the last 2 weeks and is now down a number of key players. The Bears potentially will be without all 4 starting DB’s + 3 reserves with that unit. The top 4 are currently on the reserve Covid list and unless cleared by Monday they won’t be playing in this game. The defense has been struggling anyway allowing 29 or more points in 5 of their last 7 games including 78 the last 2 weeks alone. The only 2 offenses they were able to slow down were Detroit & Baltimore who rank 28th and 19th in YPP offense. Minnesota ranks 7th in the NFL averaging 5.9 YPP and they’ve put up at least 26 points in 7 of their last 8 games. Defensively the Vikings are headed downhill as they’ve given up at least 28 points in 4 straight games and 6 of their last 8. They are allowing a TD on almost 28% of opponents red zone plays which is the worst mark in the NFL. Chicago’s offense is coming around. They put up 30 points last week on Green Bay and averaged 6 YPP. A week earlier they scored 22 on Arizona. Those 2 teams rank 5th and 6th in the NFL in total defense. Minnesota ranks 29th in that category. We expect the Bears offense to play well and put up points here. The weather in Chicago looks very good for this time of year with temps in the mid 30’s and light winds at game time. Take the OVER in this one. |
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12-19-21 | Falcons v. 49ers -9 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
#324 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco -9 over Atlanta, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - While these 2 teams have similar records – SF 7-6 / Atlanta 6-7 – this is a mismatch which is why the line sits where it is. The Niners rate as the 8th best team in the NFL DVOA per Football Outsiders ranking 6th in offense and 8th in defense. Atlanta ranks dead last in the NFL DVOA and 29th in offense, 30th in defense. Atlanta has beaten the lower tier teams in the NFL (Jacksonville, NY Jets, NYG, etc…) but when facing solid teams, they’ve been smoked. They’ve played only 5 games (out of 13) this season vs teams that currently have a winning record. The Birds are 0-5 both SU & ATS in those games and they’ve been outscored 178-51 in those games for an average score of 35-10! All of those losses came by at least 15 points and they were not fluky losses as Atlanta was outgained 6.0 YPP to 4.4 YPP in those 5 games combined. SF is playing their best football of the year winning 4 of their last 5 despite being on the road 3 of the last 4 weeks. They’ve played the much tougher schedule facing 7 teams that are currently above .500 with 5 of those teams landing in the top 10 overall DVOA. Despite the difference in SOS, the Niners have a +0.5 YPP differential and a +28 point differential on the season while Atlanta is -0.5 YPP with a -108 point differential (2nd worst in the NFC ahead of only Detroit). Even in the 6 games Atlanta has won this year, they were outgained in 5 of those contests. San Fran is making a push for the playoffs and this is a crucial game at home. They are facing an Atlanta team that is much worse than their record and playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks. We like the Niners to roll to a double digit win in this game. |
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12-18-21 | Patriots v. Colts OVER 45.5 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 45.5 Points – New England vs Indianapolis, Saturday at 8:20 PM ET - We understand the Pats defense has been rolling allowing just 10 PPG over their last 7 but we believe those numbers are drastically over inflated based on competition. If we throw out their game @ Buffalo in which the weather was brutal (snow & 40+ MPH wind), the Patriots have faced just ONE team ranked in the top half of the NFL in total offense during that stretch. That was the Chargers who hit them for 24 points and averaged 6.4 yards per play. Tonight they face an Indy offense that is rolling scoring at least 30 points in 7 of their last 8 games. We think the Colts will put up numbers on offense here. Much is being made of the New England defense, however their offense has been very solid. They have scored at least 24 points in 9 straight if we throw out their game @ Buffalo which was discussed above. They averaged 33 PPG during that run. Both of these offenses rank in the top 8 in 3rd down conversion % and in the top 10 in red zone scoring attempts per game. We look for both of these teams to get to at least the mid 20’s which puts this over the total |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Chargers | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
#301 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -3 over LA Chargers, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - KC playing as well as anyone in the AFC right now winning 6 straight and 8 of their last 10. After struggling early in the season, their defense has been outstanding allowing single digits in 4 of their last 5 games and they’ve allowed just 13 PPG over their last 8 games. LA won the first meeting of the season @ KC 30-24. However the Chiefs outgained the Chargers but had 4 turnovers in the game (0 for LA) including 3 giveaways inside the LA 40 yard line. While KC’s defense has kicked it in high gear, the Chargers defense has gotten worse as the season has progressed. They have allowed an average of 29 PPG over their last 9 games. LA really has very little to no home field advantage as many times their opponent has as many fans in the stadium as the Chargers do. They are just 3-3 SU at home with their 3 wins coming vs Pittsburgh, Las Vegas, and Cleveland, all teams that are currently .500 or below. The Chiefs are 3-2 SU on the road this year outgained their opponents 445 to 337 and outscoring them by an average of 30-24. The road team in this AFC West battle has won 8 of the last 10 meetings outright. As these 2 battle for the lead in the division (KC up by 1 game over LA) we’ll side with the experienced team, QB, and coach who is used to this situation. Lay the FG with KC. |
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12-13-21 | Rams v. Cardinals -2.5 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
#130 ASA TOP PLAY ON Arizona -2.5 over LA Rams, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Rams simply aren’t playing very well. Prior to last week’s win over Jacksonville they had lost 5 straight vs the number by 62 points losing by an average of 12 points to the number. They are 5-4 SU over their last 9 games with their wins coming vs Houston, Jacksonville, Detroit, NY Giants, and Seattle with Geno Smith at QB. The first 3 listed rank 29th, 30th, and 31st DVOA on Football Outsiders. Anytime they’ve faced a team with a pulse as of late, they’ve come up short (losses vs GB, Arizona, SF, and Tennessee over the last 9 games). QB Stafford has a bad back and sore arm and it has showed in his performance as 5 of his 9 interceptions on the season have come in the last 4 games. The Rams also have Covid issues right now with starting RT and Center out along with starting RB Henderson. Arizona came off bye 2 weeks ago and they are much healthier then the Rams right now. QB Murray is back and he has his full complement of WR’s in the line up. With Murray at QB they have scored 30+ points in 7 of 9 games. Cards are 10-2 on the season (9-3 ATS) with their only losses coming by 3 points vs Green Bay and at home vs Carolina when Murray was out. That was in fact their last home game which was nearly a month ago. Arizona will be ready to make amends for that embarrassing loss. These 2 met in LA this year and the Cardinals were + total yardage, + yards per pass attempt, + yards per rush attempt and won the game 37-20. Arizona is 4-0 both SU & ATS vs division foes this year and they get another win and cover on Monday. |
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12-12-21 | Ravens v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
#114 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland -2.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - This game sets up very nicely for the Browns. They are coming off a bye and they lost @ Baltimore 16-10 the game before their bye week. In that game the Ravens ran 20 more offensive snaps (77 to 57) and still couldn’t pull away for a comfortable win at home. Cleveland was outgained in total yardage which would be expected when you run 20 fewer plays, however on a yards per play basis the Browns outgained the Ravens 4.6 to 3.9. Baltimore comes in a bit demoralized after losing @ Pittsburgh last week and the way they lost makes it really tough to bounce back. The Ravens scored a TD with only a few seconds left and decided to go for 2 points rather than kick the XP and go into OT. The Ravens offense has been really bad over the last month and a half or so. They have been held under 20 points in 5 of their last 6 games and over the last 4 weeks they’ve scored a TD on just 5 of 45 possessions (11%) which is the worst in the league during that stretch. It will be tough for them on offense again facing the 4th rated defense in the NFL on Sunday who just held them to 3.9 yards per play 2 weeks ago. Cleveland is as healthy as they’ve been since early in the season coming off last week’s bye. Both RB’s Chubb and Hunt are back. QB Mayfield was able to rest his ailing shoulder for the first time this season. The Browns are 6-6 on the season yet they’ve outgained their opponents 5.7 yards per play to 5.2 yards per play. Baltimore is 8-4 but they’ve been outgained 5.5 yards per play to 6.1 yards per play. The Ravens are not nearly as good as their record might indicate and we like Cleveland to win by at least a FG at home on Sunday. |
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12-12-21 | Seahawks v. Texans UNDER 41 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
#119/120 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 41 Points – Seattle vs Houston, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We have the 2 worst offenses in the NFL in this game with Houston 32nd in total offense and Seattle 31st. The Texans are averaging 13.7 PPG and they’ve been held to single digits in HALF of their games this season (6). Over their last 7 games the Texans are averaging 10 PPG and have been held to 14 or less 5 times. They are last in the NFL averaging 4.4 YPP which is the worst mark in the league since the 2018 season. Seattle’s defense should shut this team down. The Seahawks have been playing quite well on that side of the ball holding 7 straight opponents to 23 points or less. That includes very good offensive teams Green Bay, San Francisco, and Arizona. If they can hold those teams in check, they sure as hell can limit this Houston offense. While the Seahawks have been good defensively, they have not been so on offense. Russell Wilson is not close to 100% and it shows with this team scoring 0, 13, 15, and 30 points since he returned. Last week’s 30 point effort was VERY misleading as they scored on a 74 yard fake punt and a safety. So the offense only scored 21 but averaged just 4.8 YPP. Houston’s defense is the strength of their team ranking 10th in DVOA per Football Outsiders. Both of these teams are averaging 40 total points in their games this year and ALL of those games were vs teams that ranked higher in total offense. The teams have played 24 games combined this season and only 6 have gone Over the Total. There is a decent chance neither of these teams reach 20 points in this game and we like the Under. |
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12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 35 h 27 m | Show |
#102 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -3 over Pittsburgh, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Love this situation for the Vikings. They are coming off an embarrassing loss @ Detroit giving the Lions their first win of the season. Detroit scored on the final play of the game for the 29-27 win. The Vikes outgained the Lions 6.0 to 5.2 YPP in that loss. It was the 2nd straight setback for Minnesota after losing @ San Francisco a week earlier putting this team in must win mode at home on Thursday. Let’s not forget the 2 games prior to those losses the Vikings beat the Chargers on the road and the Packers at home. Pittsburgh is coming off a gigantic division 20-19 win beat Baltimore by 1 point when the Ravens decided to go for the win and a 2 point conversion in the final seconds but came up inches short. Now going on the road on a short week after a very physical division battle is not ideal. Prior to squeaking by Baltimore the Steelers tied Detroit at home, lost @ LA Chargers (outgained by 3.1 YPP!), and lost 41-10 @ Cincinnati. The Steelers were +6 in their game @ LA Chargers and +4 @ Cincinnati and now +3 @ Minnesota, a team that ranks ahead of both those teams DVOA? Last week’s loss @ Detroit is giving us nice value here with the Vikings. Despite Minnesota’s 5-7 record (Pitt is 6-5-1), the Vikes rank 11th overall DVOA (12 spots ahead of Pitt), are better defensively (DVOA - 17th to 20th), better offensively (DVOA - 8th to 20th) and they’ve played the tougher schedule to date. Minnesota has a + point differential while Pittsburgh, despite being 1 game above .500, has a point differential of -42. The Minnesota defense was missing their top DB last week with Patrick Peterson out in Covid protocol but he returns this week. The Vikings are receiving tons of criticism in the Minneapolis area after their loss last week and now they are in must win mode on Thursday. We think they come out and play very well and pick up a win & cover over the banged up Steelers. |
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12-06-21 | Patriots v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
#476 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo -2.5 over New England, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Pats come into this one with a 5-0 SU record on the road but they played perhaps the easiest road schedule in the NFL thus far. Their opponents? Houston, NY Jets, Atlanta, Carolina, and the LA Chargers. The only legit competition in that group was the Chargers and New England was outgained 6.4 YPP to 4.7 YPP in that contest but benefited from a pick 6 in that 27-24 win. Their other 4 road opponents have a combined 15-33 record. Going into Buffalo on Monday night will be their most difficult game this season. The Bills are coming off a 31-6 win @ New Orleans on Thanksgiving so they’ve had extra time to get ready for this one. The Bills have had a few stinkers this year losing at home to Indy and getting tripped up @ Jacksonville, but the numbers still show they are the top team in the AFC. They have a YPG differential of +114 and a YPP differential of +1.3, both tops on the NFL. New England’s defense has been on a very good run over the last month but 3 of the 4 offenses they’ve faced during that stretch rank 22nd or lower in offensive DVOA. As good as the New England defense has been, the Buffalo defense is #1 in the NFL allowing just 4.6 YPP compared to 5.1 for the Pats. During their current 6 game winning streak, the Patriots have been a big time beneficiary in the turnover department with a +13 margin in those 6 games alone. They probably can’t count on that tonight facing a Bills team that is 4th in the NFL in TO margin. NE QB Jones has had a great rookie season but after facing a number of lower tier opponents on the road this year, now he takes on the #1 defense in the NFL in one of the toughest venues in the league. We expect him to struggle. All 7 of Buffalo’s wins this year have come by at least 15 points and we like them to cover at home on Monday. |
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12-05-21 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | Top | 9-22 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
#457/458 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 47.5 Points – Denver vs Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - People continue to view this KC offense as a juggernaut and it just isn’t anymore. They are averaging fewer PPG, YPG, and YPP this season compared to last. The Chiefs have topped 20 points only twice in their last 7 games. Now they face a division opponent that is locked in defensively. The Broncos have allowed 17 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games including vs Dallas and LA Chargers, two of the best offenses in the NFL. For the season Denver is giving up just 17.8 PPG which ranks them 3rd in the NFL. They are allowing only 2.2 red zone trips per game which is tops in the NFL On the other side of the ball the Chiefs defense has poor numbers overall. Those season stats are not indicative of how this KC stop unit is playing right now. After allowing 32.6 PPG and allowing opponents to score points on more than 57% of their possessions through the first 5 games, KC’s defense has allowed a miniscule 9.5 PPG and allowed opponents to score points on just 27% of their possession over the last 6 games. They should limit a Denver offense that is averaging just 20.7 PPG on the year. The Broncos are one of the slowest paced teams in the NFL and will want to control the clock here. Denver games are averaging only 38 total points on the season and KC’s games are averaging just 35 total points over the last 6 games once their defense started to play well. Looks like a windy night in KC (15+ MPH) which will have an affect as well. Under is the play here. |
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12-05-21 | Chargers +3 v. Bengals | Top | 41-22 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
#463 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Chargers +3 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Buy low, sell high spot here. The Chargers are coming off a loss @ Denver last week in a game that set up nicely for the Broncos who were coming off a bye. Cincinnati has had 2 straight impressive looking wins beating the Raiders 32-13 and Steelers 41-10. However, let’s not forget that their 2 games prior to those wins, the Bengals lost at home 41-16 vs Cleveland and lost @ NY Jets. Cincy has the better record in this match with a 7-4 mark compared to the Chargers 6-5. We have to take into account the strength of schedules of these 2 teams to put those records in perspective. Cincy had played the 31st rated schedule so far this season including games vs Chicago, Jacksonville, NY Jets, and Detroit – all ranked 25th or lower in NFL team DVOA with the last 3 listed ranking 29th, 30th, and 31st . Despite that, the Bengals lost 2 of those games vs the Bears & Jets and barely squeaked by the Jags by 3 points. The Chargers have played the 2nd most difficult schedule in the NFL to date. Despite the schedule disparity, LA has the better YPG differential (+33 to +5) and the better YPP differential (+0.5 to +0.3). LA has been a solid road team with a 3-2 SU record this year and 21-10-3 ATS as a road dog the last 3 seasons. We expect LA QB Herbert to have a big day vs the 25th ranked Cincinnati pass defense. Take the points. |
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12-02-21 | Cowboys v. Saints +5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans +5 over Dallas, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Dallas is currently going through a Covid issue which will affect the team negatively this week. We’re not quite sure how much as of this writing but we know some key pieces to the puzzle are out. HC McCarthy and several assistants will not be able to participate in this game. We know the Dallas starting RT is out and we’re expecting more to come. WR Jones might return but he still is nowhere near 100% as he’s still under the weather. Dallas has had to conduct virtual practices this week so the prep for this game is out of whack as well. That will be a problem for a Cowboy offense that is playing the best defense they’ve faced in quite a while. The Saints rank 5th in the NFL DVOA defense and the last 5 teams Dallas has faced have defenses ranked 17th or lower and 4 of the 5 rank 24th or lower DVOA. Dallas has lost 3 of their last 4 games despite facing those defenses. This team is trending down. We realize the Saints have lost 4 in a row and are reeling as well. New Orleans has outgained 2 of those 4 opponents and 2 of the losses came by 2 points. They are also making a change at QB with a healthy Taysom Hill taking over which should give this team some life. He played very well in his 4 starts last season completing 71.9% of his passes during his four-game starting stint for 834 yards, 4 TDs and 2 interceptions. He also ran the ball 39 times for 209 yards and 4 touchdowns. New Orleans HC Payton has never lost 5 straight games and his record as a dog is a money making 47-25 ATS – including 7-2 ATS as a home dog since 2015. Off a terrible home performance vs the Bills on Thanksgiving Day, we like New Orleans to bounce back and keep this one close if not win outright. |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team +1 | Top | 15-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
#274 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington +1 over Seattle, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - We really like the way Washington is trending right now. They’ve won 2 straight games and actually outgained their last 4 opponents. Two of those games came vs Green Bay & Tampa Bay, two of the very best teams in the NFL. 3 of those 4 games were on the road. Their most recent home game was 2 weeks ago vs Tampa and Washington won the game by 10 points outgaining the Bucs by 47 yards. It was an ideal spot for Tampa as they were coming off a bye and had lost @ New Orleans heading into their week off. Needless to say a very impressive win for Washington. Their defense was top notch last year but struggled the first part of the season. They have really tightened up on that side of the ball limiting their last 4 opponents to an average of just 286 YPG. That includes holding Tampa to 273 yards and Green Bay to 304 yards. That’s bad news for a Seattle offense that is struggling to say the least right now. The Seahawks have scored a grand total of 13 points the last 2 weeks combined. Russell Wilson is obviously not 100% and can’t perform at the level he is used to. Since his return Wilson has led Seattle on 20 offensive possessions and they’ve scored 1 TD. Last week they lost 23-13 at home vs Arizona with Colt McCoy at QB for the Cards. The Hawks have lost 5 of their last 6 games with their only win coming vs Jacksonville. They’ve also been outgained in 9 straight games. On the season the Seahawks are getting outgained by 103 YPG (worst differential in the NFL) and they rank 30th in total offense and 32nd in total defense. We like Washington to win this game at home. |
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11-28-21 | Vikings v. 49ers OVER 48.5 | Top | 26-34 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
#267/268 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 49 Points – Minnesota vs San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Both these offenses are humming right now and our projections have this one landing in the 50’s. The Vikings have scored at least 27 points in 4 of their last 5 games including putting up 31 last week vs a Green Bay defense that had allowed more than 21 points in any of their previous 5 games. San Francisco has scored 30 or more in 3 of their last 4 games including 31 two weeks ago vs a very good Rams defense and 30 last week vs a Jacksonville defense that had allowed 6 points to Buffalo 2 weeks prior and 16 offensive points to Indy in their previous game. Both teams rank inside the top 10 in offensive DVOA per football outsiders. Minnesota has gone over the total in 4 of their 5 road games this year with an average of 58 points scored in those games. The Viking defense has allowed at least 27 points in 4 of those 5 road games. San Fran at home has gone over in 3 of their 5 games with an average point total of 49 per game. The Niners defense has solid overall numbers this season but vs some of the better offenses they’ve faced they have given up points (Green Bay 30, Indy 30, and Arizona 31). This one has the makings of a back and forth game with each team needing to keep up on the scoreboard. Take the OVER |
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11-28-21 | Eagles -3.5 v. Giants | Top | 7-13 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 over NY Giants, 1 PM ET - The Giants just fired their offensive coordinator Jason Garrett and have a short week to prepare for the surging Eagles who have won 2 straight and 3 of their last four. The key in this game will be the rushing attack of the Eagles. Going into last week’s game the Saints had the #1 ranked rushing defense in the NFL allowing 73RYPG but the Eagles pounded them on the ground for 242-rushing yards on 50 carries. Philadelphia has morphed into a solid running team with over 176 rushing yards in four straight games, over 216 in three of those. If the Eagles were able to rush for over the #1 ranked Saints defense last week, what will they do against a Giants rush defense that is 23rd in the league allowing 120RYPG and 4.4-yards per carry. These two teams are even in terms of defensive DVOA but the Eagles rate much better offensively with the 7th best DVOA offense compared to the Giants 27th ranked unit. Going back to 2016 the Eagles have beaten the Giants 9 of ten times and eight of those wins came by 3 or more points. Back Philadelphia as a short road favorite. |
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11-25-21 | Bills v. Saints UNDER 45.5 | Top | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 45.5 Buffalo Bills @ New Orleans Saints, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - Let’s not overreact to the Bills game last week when their defense looked atrocious against the Colts for a couple reasons. First off, the Colts offense is playing quite well right now behind a great O-line and RB Jonathan Taylor. Secondly, the Bills were #1 in the NFL in defensive DVOA and still rank 1st in yards per game allowed 2nd in passing D, 9th in rushing D and 2nd in points allowed per game at 17.6. On average it takes opponents 16.3 yards gained for 1-point which is 9th best in the NFL. Buffalo is also 1st in yards per play allowed this season at 4.7. After a horrible showing last week, we are betting the Bills defense shows up here. The Bills aren’t the only team in this game with a fantastic defense. The Saints rank 5th in defensive DVOA, give up 5.4YPPL (11th), 15.7 yards per point (13th) and rank 10th in points allowed per game at 21.8. The Saints offense is banged up, down to their 3rd string QB and could be without Kamara again here. Last week the Saints had less than 100-total yards of offense going into the 4th quarter against the Eagles and 7-points. The 22-points and yards gained in the 4th quarter came after that game was out of reach. The Bills offense has looked pedestrian at best in two of their last three games with 6 and 15-points against the Jaguars and Colts. They did put up 45-points versus the Jets, but New York has the worst defense in the NFL. The bet here is Under. |
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11-22-21 | Giants +11.5 v. Bucs | Top | 10-30 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
#477 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +11.5 over Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - Giants are coming off a bye and playing much better as of late. They’ve won 2 of their last 3 games with their only loss coming by 3 points @ KC. They outgained the Chiefs 5.4 YPP to 4.8 YPP in that game and that tight loss on the road is looking more impressive after KC demolished Las Vegas and handled Dallas in the 2 weeks after. They have been a big time money maker as a road underdog going 19-4 ATS their last 23. This year they are 3-1 ATS when getting points on the road. NYG QB Jones has been better on the road in his career than he’s been at home. This year in his 4 road games he has a higher completion percentage, higher yards per pass attempt, and a higher QBR away from home. WR’s Golladay and Toney are finally healthy and RB Barkley may play here. TB is coming off back to back losses getting topped New Orleans by 9 and Washington by 10. Brady put up his 2 lowest QBR ratings in those 2 games which included 4 interceptions. Those were vs pass defenses that rank 13th and 29th DVOA. The Giants defensive strength is vs the pass ranking 11th in the NFL DVOA so they match up very well with a TB offense that struggles to run (27th in rush offense). These 2 faced off last year and it was tight to the end with Tampa winning by just 2 points despite getting outgained by the Giants. NYG may not win this one but they’ll put up a fight and say within 11 points. |
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11-21-21 | Cowboys +2.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 9-19 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
#473 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dallas +2.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’re not going to overreact to one big offensive performance from KC. They walloped Las Vegas last week but prior to that this team was averaging only 17 PPG their previous 5 games. This team still is a shell of last year’s Super Bowl team. The Chiefs YPP differential is -0.3 and their defense ranks 31st in YPP allowed at 6.1. That’s a bad match up vs a Dallas offense that is 1st in the NFL averaging 6.3 YPP and 1st as well in scoring at 31.6 PPG. KC is 0-9 ATS their last 9 home games (regular season) including 0-5 ATS this year losing by an average of 8 PPG to the spread. Dallas has been the better team all season long. They are the only team in the NFL ranked in the top 5 in both offense and defense DVOA. Their defense ranks 3rd DVOA vs the pass which matches them up very nicely with the Chiefs in this game. The Cowboys are also 3rd in the NFL in 3rd down defense with opponents converting only 32% of the time. That should keep Mahomes on the sidelines and the Dallas offense on the field in this one. KC continues to be overvalued based on their previous seasons. The better team is getting points here and we’re not passing that up. Take Dallas. |
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11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons +7.5 | Top | 25-0 | Loss | -135 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
#312 ASA TOP PLAY ON Atlanta +7.5 over New England, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET - The Patriots are quickly becoming a public team after winning & covering 4 straight. Around 75% of the tickets this week have come in on New England and the sportsbooks we track and that has pushed the line from a -4 opener to a full TD. Too much in our opinion and we’ll take the value on Atlanta. The Pats have been favored by -7 or more just twice this season vs the Jets & Texans. In their lone road game as a heavy chalk, New England had to come from down 22-9 @ Houston to squeak by with a 25-22 win. They have been a road favorite of a TD or more just twice since the start of last season struggling to beat a bad Houston team this year and doing the same vs the NY Jets last year (won by 3). Atlanta is coming in off an embarrassing performance @ Dallas losing 43-3. We love backing teams off blowout losses, especially as home underdogs. If they are facing a team off a blowout win (New England won by 38 last week) that’s even better. A buy low – sell high spot for sure. Prior to their loss @ Dallas, the Falcons had won 4 of 6 games with their losses during that stretch coming by 4 & 6 points. Since their 2 blowout losses to open the season vs Philly and @ Tampa Bay, the Falcons have adapted nicely to new head coach Arthur Smith’s systems on both sides of the ball. Since those opening 2 losses, the Falcons are 4-3 SU with 6 of those 7 games being decided by a TD or less (Dallas last week being the only outlier). Last week Atlanta was +8 @ Dallas and now they are +7 at home vs the Patriots? We’ll take the value with the home team on Thursday night. |
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11-15-21 | Rams -3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Rams -3.5 over San Francisco, Monday at 8:20 PM ET - We like the better team here coming off a very deceiving loss last week. The Rams played host to the Titans, who have now won 5 straight games, and dominated the stat sheet. They lost the game but LA was +1.2 YPP, +1.8 YPC, and +0.6 yards per pass attempt. Two huge turnovers did them in with QB Stafford throwing a pick 6 and another that was returned to the 2 yard line and led to TD. The Rams seem to have very little home field advantage (3-2 record) so on the road, where they are 4-0 this season, we can pick up some nice value. San Fran, on the other hand, hasn’t won a home game yet this season (0-4) losing those games by 2, 7, 12, and 14 points. Last week’s loss was very telling. The Niners were in must win mode at home vs Arizona, who was playing without their QB Murray or their top WR Hopkins. Cardinal back up QB McCoy shredded the SF defense completing 85% of his pass attempts in that game. Arizona outgained the Niners by 100 yards en route to a 31-17 win. That same Cardinal team with McCoy at QB was dominated at home yesterday by Carolina losing 34-10 and they were held to just 3.2 YPP. Rams HC McVay is fantastic off a SU loss with a 16-6 spread mark in that situation. SF, on the other hand, has been a big time money burner at home with a 13-22-1 ATS mark since Shanahan took over as head coach. The 49ers have 3 wins this season vs Detroit, Chicago, and Philly who have a combined record of 7-20. When they’ve had to step up in class SF’s hasn’t been able to get it done. On top of that, this is a double revenger for the Rams who were favored in both games last year vs San Francisco and lost. We like LA tonight. |
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11-14-21 | Saints +3 v. Titans | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
#249 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Orleans +3 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Ask yourself this question. Why is Tennessee only favored by 2.5 to 3 points in this game? This is a Titans team that just won 4 straight games as an underdog vs the Bills, Chiefs, Colts and Rams. And now they face the Saints a team that lost at home to Atlanta last week and are playing their back up QB? Fishy we say. The fact is the Saints match up really well vs this Tennessee team. New Orleans is #1 DVOA defense vs the run which is a huge part of the Titan’s offense, with our without Derrick Henry. Last week, their first game without Henry, the Titans rushed for only 69 yards on 2.7 YPC vs the Rams. Despite their win Tennessee was a bit fortunate in that game with Rams QB Stafford throwing a pick 6 and another interception that was returned to the 2 yard line and led to a TD. Tennessee was actually outgained by 1.2 YPP in that win. New Orleans QB Siemian has actually played quite well in this game and a half of work this year. He’s thrown for over 400 yards with 3 TD’s and no picks. While they did lose to Atlanta by 2 points this year, let’s not forget this Saints team beat Tampa Bay 36-27 a week early with Siemian getting most of the snaps. New Orleans is 2-0 ATS this year when coming off a SU loss and head coach Payton is 32-20 ATS in that role. The 7-2 Titans are a bit overvalued right now as their YPP differential is -0.3 and they are getting outgained in total yardage on the season. They won their first game without Henry due to LA turnovers. Now they face a motivated New Orleans team with a top notch defense off a loss. Sean Payton and the Saints are 8-1 ATS their last 9 as a road underdog winning 7 of those games outright. Take the points. |
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11-08-21 | Bears v. Steelers UNDER 40 | Top | 27-29 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 40 Points – Chicago @ Pittsburgh, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - This should be a low scoring, grinder type game. The strength of both teams are their defenses. The Chicago defense is coming off 2 subpar performances but those games were vs TB (2nd DVOA offense) and San Fran (7th DVOA offense). We expect them to bounce back tonight vs Pittsburgh offense that is 26th in scoring averaging just 18.9 PPG. The Steeler offense has topped 24 points only one time the entire year. Chicago’s offense is averaging just 14.8 PPG since Fields took over at QB (15.4 PPG for the entire season). They have topped 20 points just twice this year, once vs Detroit (24 points) who ranks 31st in the NFL in points allowed and vs SF (22 points) who ranks 25th in points allowed. The SF game was last week and that Niner defense is definitely trending downward after giving up 30+ to Arizona yesterday with their back up QB. Chicago ranks dead last in the NFL averaging 4.4 YPP and Pittsburgh is 25th in that category at 5.2 YPP. Facing an aggressive Steeler defense that ranks 10th in the NFL DVOA won’t be a recipe for success for the Bears struggling offense. These 2 have combined to play 15 games this season with only 3 going over the total. Chicago games are averaging 39 total points and Pittsburgh games are averaging 39 points so while this total seems low, it’s really not. The projected score based on the point spread and this total is right around Pittsburgh 23.5, Chicago 16.5. Again that seems low but that means both teams would have to eclipse their season average in points scored (Pitt by 4.5 points and Chicago by 1 point). We just don’t see that happening here. Take the Under tonight. |
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11-07-21 | Chargers v. Eagles OVER 49.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 21 m | Show |
#467/468 ASA PLAY ON Over 49.5 Points – LA Chargers vs Philadelphia, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Two of the fastest paced teams in the NFL square off here with the Chargers ranking 2nd averaging 1 play every 25.8 seconds and Philly ranking 5th running 1 play every 26.5 seconds. Needless to say we’ll see a lot of offensive snaps in this game which gives us more opportunities to score points. Both of these offense rank in the top 12 in YPP gained and each offense matches up very well with the opposing defense. LA likes to throw the ball with QB Herbert and the Philly defense ranks dead last allowing opposing QB’s to complete almost 75% of their pass attempts. Philadelphia is a solid running team (4th in rushing YPC) and the Charger defense sits dead last in the NFL allowing 5.1 YPC. Both teams are very solid on 3rd down (11th and 13th in 3rd down conversion rate) which keeps drives alive. On the other side of the ball, neither defense is good at getting teams off the field on 3rd down with the Chargers ranking 28th & Eagles 26th in defensive 3rd down conversion rate. The Eagle defense has had 2 solid performances since mid September and their opponents in those games were Detroit who ranks 31st in DVOA offense and Carolina who ranks 29th. In their other 4 games since September 19th this defense has allowed 41, 42, 28, and 33 points. The Chargers defense played well early in the season however over their last 3 games they’ve allowed 42, 34, and 27 points. The weather looks good in Philly on Sunday with highs in the 50’s and light winds. This final score projects in the 25-24 range and we like both offenses to top those numbers. Over is the play. |
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11-07-21 | Vikings +6.5 v. Ravens | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 45 h 48 m | Show |
#455 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +6.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Vikings have a record of 3-4 but they are better than their record. Their 4 losses have come by a combined 15 points with their biggest loss coming by 7 points. They were ahead or tied in the 4th quarter in 3 of those losses. Minnesota currently has a + point differential along with a positive YPP & YPG differential. Baltimore is coming off a bye and a blowout loss @ home vs Cincinnati. While many may think this is a great spot to jump on them, we think the Ravens are overvalued. 3 of their 5 wins have come by 1 point vs KC (not as impressive as it once seemed), winless Detroit by 2 points, Indy in OT in a game they trailed by 16 in the 4th quarter. They also beat a bad Denver team and their lone impressive win was vs the LA Chargers. The Raven defense ranks 30th in the NFL in YPP allowed and they are giving up 65 more total yards than they were last season. Dating back to the 2016 season, Minnesota is 21-10-1 ATS when coming off a SU loss – they loss at home vs Dallas last weekend. We project this one to go to the wire. Getting nearly a TD with Minnesota is a solid value. |
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11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts UNDER 46 | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points – NY Jets @ Indianapolis, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - This under sets up nicely. The Jets offense has been poor all season averaging 16 PPG. Prior to last week’s offensive outburst vs Cincinnati (34 points – highest of the year) the Jets were averaging 13.3 PPG and had topped 20 points only once all season. Now they face the 5th rated defense DVOA and we expect a big drop off in this game. Last week NY QB White threw for over 400 yards and 3 TD’s. We expect a huge regression now that the Colts have 1.5 games of film on him. There is a reason White was drafted in 2018 and his first start in the NFL was last week. He’s only played in 2 games in his career. The Colts defense has played a number of higher ranked offenses this season (Rams, Titans, Ravens) and given up some points. However, they lower third of the NFL offenses they’ve faced this year (Texans & Dolphins) they’ve allowed an average of just 10 PPG. NYJ offense ranks 28th DVOA so they are in the same tier as those 2 teams. On offense we expect Indy to run the ball tonight. The Jets defense ranks 23rd DVOA at stopping the run and Jonathan Taylor is one of the best in the biz. After leading for much of the game last week and relying to heavily on QB Wentz, who threw 2 terrible interceptions late in the game and in OT, the game plan will be run heavy. We also look for Indy’s offense – one of the slower paced teams in the league (25th) – to control the clock and shorten this game. This total is tied for the Jets highest number of the season. Their game vs Atlanta whose defense (30th DVOA defense) is nowhere near as good as Indy’s was 46 as well. That game finished 27-20 so 1 point Over when the NYJ kicked a FG with 17 seconds remaining in the game. This total is an overreaction to what the NYJ offense did last week with a QB nobody had seen play. Under is the play here. |
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11-01-21 | Giants v. Chiefs OVER 52 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
#277/278 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 52 Points – NY Giants vs Kansas City, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - KC is coming off their worst offensive performance in years putting up only 3 points @ Tennessee last Sunday. They had chances in the 2nd half pushing inside the Tennessee 30-yard line in every possession after halftime and came away with just 3 points. To put that in perspective, the Chiefs have played 63 games (regular season & playoffs) since the start of the 2018 season. They had been held to 10 points or less just ONE other time (before Sunday) during that stretch while scoring at least 35 points 19 times. Because of last week's performance, we're looking at KC's lowest total of the year on Monday. You think KC’s offense will be out to prove a point on Monday primetime TV after scoring 3 last Sunday? We do. The Chiefs should put up plenty of points vs a NYG defense that has allowed at least 27 points in 4 of their 7 games this year. The only teams that did not reach 27 vs this defense were Carolina, New Orleans, and Atlanta all ranked 24th or lower in YPP offense and 20th or lower in offensive DVOA. On the defensive side of the ball KC continues to be one of the worst in the NFL. They are 27th allowing 29 PPG, 30th in 3rd down conversion % allowed, and dead last allowing 6.6 YPP. The Giants have played a number of upper tier defenses over the last month including New Orleans, Carolina, and the LA Rams. They’ll take a big step down here. The Giants also expect 2 of their top offensive weapons back with WR’s Toney and Shephard getting the green light. The weather will be near perfect almost no wind. This should be a shootout. |
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10-31-21 | Jaguars v. Seahawks OVER 44.5 | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
#267/268 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 44.5 Points – Jacksonville vs Seattle, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Everyone watched the offensive debacle between New Orleans and Seattle on Monday night (Saints 13-10 win) and that has pushed this total lower than it should be. The total in that game was 42 and that was with Seattle facing one of the best defenses in the NFL (Saints 6th in YPP allowed and 3rd in DVOA defense), a poor offense (Saints 27th in YPP gained), and a team that ranks dead last in the NFL in pace. Now we’re getting almost the same number vs a Jacksonville defense that ranks dead last in DVOA defense & 31st in YPP allowed, a decent offense (Jags 13th in YPP gained) and a team that ranks first in the NFL in pace. Seattle’s offense hasn’t been great but they’ve faced 3 straight very solid defensive teams (Rams, Steelers, and Saints). Geno Smith and company will look much better vs a Jax defense that allows 420 YPG (30th in the NFL). Same with Jacksonville coming off a bye and facing a Seattle defense that ranks 31st in the same category allowing 428 YPG. This is the lowest total of the year for Jacksonville and the 2nd lowest for Seattle just 1 point lower than their game on Monday night as we mentioned. The weather last Monday night was poor (rain and wind) but looks perfect for Sunday. We’re comfortable with both teams topping 20 points in this game and we like the OVER. |
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10-31-21 | Titans v. Colts -2.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -114 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
#258 ASA PLAY ON 10* Indianapolis -2.5 over Tennessee, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Revenger from earlier this year for the Colts. They weren’t playing well at the time and lost 25-16 @ Tennessee. Indy has since started to play much better winning 3 of their last 4 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Baltimore in a game they led by 16 in the 4th quarter. This is a rough spot for Tennessee. They are coming off back to back huge home games beating both Buffalo & KC. Now going on the road for the first time in 3 weeks. Their 3 road games haven’t been overly impressive. They lost at the NYJ giving the Jets their only win of the season. Their other 2 roadies were wins @ Seattle in OT (Tenn was down 24-9 at half), and they beat a bad Jacksonville team. They were outgained drastically in each of those games with a -1.2 YPP differential @ Seattle, -1.3 @ NY Jets, and -0.9 @ Jacksonville. We still feel the Titans are overvalued. They are 5-2 on the season yet their YPP differential is -0.4. DVOA agrees with us as they have the Titans ranked 20th in the NFL right now (Colts are 15th). Indy actually averages more YPP offensively (5.8 to 5.6) and allows less defensive (5.8 to 6.0). The Colts definitely have the better defense in this game and their offense is starting to come around. QB Wentz has been solid since getting over his early season injury throwing 8 TDs and no picks his last 4 games. RB Taylor has kept the offense very balanced averaging 138 total yards per game his last 4. With a record of 3-4 and a loss already @ Tennessee, this is a must win for the Colts at home. Lay it. |
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10-28-21 | Packers +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Green Bay +6.5 over Arizona, Thursday at 8 PM ET - Overreaction here to GB’s potential players being out. This line has moved all the way from -3 to -6.5 in favor of Arizona. WR Adams has not been ruled out and might play here if he has back to back negative Covid tests. Remember he did not test positive, he was simply in close contact. Even if he doesn’t play, the Packers have found a way to be successful without him in the lineup (6-0 with Adams out). This is one of the best teams in the NFL and capable of winning this game regardless of the situation. Let’s put this in perspective. This Arizona team was just favored by 6 at home vs SF a few weeks ago with rookie QB Lance making the first start of his career (Zona won the game 17-10 but they were outgained). Now they favored by a half point more vs Aaron Rodgers? Ridiculous. The last 3 QB’s the Cards have faced were Houston’s rookie Davis Mills, Cleveland’s injured Baker Mayfield, and SF’s rookie Lance. Talk about a huge step on for this defense on Thursday. GB is more than capable of running the ball effectively with RB’s Jones and Dillon vs an Arizona defense that ranks 31st allowing 5.0 YPC. If they can do that and open up play action for Rodgers, this game will be close throughout. The Cards have played 3 home games this year and 2 of those went to the wire vs SF (with rookie QB) and Minnesota (Vikes missed potential game winning FG as time expired). Their only easy home win was last Sunday vs a terrible Houston team. Green Bay’s defense ranks 7th in the NFL allowing 20.8 PPG and since their season opening debacle @ New Orleans, they’ve allowed an average of just 18 PPG. We don’t see Arizona running away with this game. GB has been tabbed an underdog just 3 times in their last 25 games and the highest number during that stretch was +3 this year @ SF a game GB won. Getting almost a full TD with Aaron Rodgers at QB is worth a take. Green Bay is the play. |
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10-25-21 | Saints v. Seahawks +4 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle +4 over New Orleans, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Would not be comfortable laying points on the road with this Saints offense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in a number of key categories. They rank 29th in YPG, 25th in YPP, and they have the worst passing YPG differential in the NFL at -105. Since catching the Packers off guard in week 1, the Saints are 2-2 and have been outgained in all 4 of those games (wins vs Washington & New England). In those 4 games vs marginal competition (NE, Wash, Caro, and NYG) New Orleans has been outgained by 387 total yards. All 4 of those teams rank in the bottom half of the NFL in total offense and all have losing records. Their wins vs Washington (by 11 points) and New England (by 15 points) are a bit misleading. Versus Washington the Saints scored on a hail mary pass at the end of the first half which gave them a lead at half when it should have been tied. Take that away and they win by 5 points vs a bad Washington team. Versus New England they scored on a pick 6 and they were +3 turnovers but got outgained on a YPP basis by the Pats. New Orleans is coming off a bye week but let’s remember Seattle has had some solid rest as well having 10 days between their games vs Rams & Steelers (most recent game) and now an extra day as well playing on Monday night. Not a big advantage for New Orleans in our opinion. QB Geno Smith has had more time to acclimate himself as the starter and he played pretty well last Sunday vs one of the top defenses in the NFL. He completed 71% of his passes for over 200 yards and 1 TD vs the Steelers in Seattle’s 3-point loss in OT. The defense isn’t great but they did step up last week holding Pittsburgh to 4.9 YPP. They won’t have to be great here vs this New Orleans offense. Rain and wind expected in Seattle tonight and a low scoring game is expected (total at 41.5). We expect a big effort from Seattle in prime time in their first home game since losing Russell Wilson. We anticipate a close game throughout with Seattle having a chance to pull the upset. Take the points. |
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10-24-21 | Bears v. Bucs -11.5 | Top | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 28 h 41 m | Show |
#468 ASA TOP PLAY ON Tampa Bay -11.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - This is a terrible match up for the Bears. They like to establish the run as their passing attack is remedial at best. Chicago is the only team in the NFL with less than 50% of their yardage coming from the passing game. The problem here is, it’s really tough to run on the Bucs. They are allowing just 54 YPG on 3.4 YPC. It’s gotten to a point where teams don’t even try to run on Tampa as just 27% of opposing plays have been on the ground – least in the NFL. If Chicago can’t run, they are in huge trouble. Their offense has zero chance of keeping up in this game. The Bears rank last in the NFL averaging 4.3 YPP. They are averaging just 16.3 PPG which is 30th in the NFL and they’ve scored only 10 offensive TD’s in 6 games this season. Rookie QB Fields has played been the starter for 4.5 games now (came in at halftime of Cincinnati game) and he’s only completing 53% of his passes for an average of 138 passing yards per game. He’s thrown only 2 TD passes this year and the Bears as a whole have thrown only 3 TD passes which is the fewest in the NFL. They have topped 300 total yards just once in their last 5 games and that was vs a bad Detroit defense. Those offensive numbers won’t get it done here. Tampa will score points. They are averaging 32.5 PPG and at home they are putting up a remarkable 41 PPG this season. They’ve been a double digit favorite their last 2 home games and blasted Atlanta 48-25 and Miami 45-17. They’ve had extra time to get ready for this having played in Philadelphia on Thursday night. This is a revenger as they lost to Chicago last year in the infamous Brady lost track of what down it was game. He takes that stuff to heart and you can bet he wants to blast Chicago here. Double digit favorites in the NFL have been a successful 7-2 ATS this season and as long as this one stays under 14 points we’ll lay it as Chicago’s offense won’t be able to score enough to get this cover. |
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10-24-21 | Washington Football Team v. Packers OVER 47.5 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
#455/456 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 47.5 Points – Washington vs Green Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - Green Bay has been an Under team this year with 2 overs & 4 unders. This is a spot to jump on the Over in our opinion. The Packers are averaging just 24 PPG this season but they’ve played a very tough slate of defenses with 5 of their 6 opponents ranking in the top 12 in defensive DVOA. The only bottom half defense they played this season was Detroit and Green Bay put up 35 points in that game. Their opening game vs New Orleans (just 3 points) has also skewed their overall offensive scoring numbers. Here they face a Washington defense that ranks 31st in total defense and dead last in scoring defense allowing 31 PPG. They are allowing opponents to score points on 52% of their drives (last in the NFL) and they have been unable to get off the field on defense allowing a ridiculous 58% conversion rate on 3rd down (last in NFL and league average is 40%). Washington has allowed at least 30 points in each of their last 4 games while GB has averaged almost 27 PPG over their last 4 facing high end defenses Chicago, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and San Fran. Unless they completely implode, GB will score 30+ here. Can Washington score enough to get this one Over the total? We think so. They have scored at least 21 points in 4 of their last 5 and the Green Bay defense is the worst in the NFL in the red zone allowing an amazing 15 TD’s on 15 opponent trips inside the 20 yard line this year. Washington games are averaging 54 points this season and with the GB offense finally facing a bad defense, this has the makings of a high scoring affair. We like the Over here. |
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10-18-21 | Bills v. Titans +6.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
#276 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee +6.5 over Buffalo, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - The Bills are overvalued right now with their string of blowouts + a win over KC last weekend. Let’s remember that, while impressive, their last 4 wins have come vs Miami (with Brissett making first start this year at QB), Washington (with QB Heinicke making 2nd start), Houston (with rookie Mills at QB) and KC (who turned the ball over 4 times in the game to 0 for Buffalo & KC ain’t the KC of last year as they are 3-3 on the season). This is also a terrible spot for the Bills. They focused much of their off-season on beating KC in that game last week after losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game last year. That was, in essence, their regular season Super Bowl. Now they go on the road in a game the opener was set at -3 and it’s been bet up to nearly a TD. The Tennessee offense is getting healthy again as WR’s Jones is expected back tonight. RB Henry has rushed for nearly 4,800 yards in his last 40 games and they are very dangerous offensively if they can mix up the run and pass. We think they’ll do that tonight vs Bills team that has solid numbers vs the run but they’ve faced 4 rushing attacks ranked 19th or lower this season. This Tennessee coaching staff knows something about beating the Bills. Last year Buffalo strolled into town with an impressive 9-2 record favored by 3 vs this Titans. They left with a 42-16 loss. It was one week after the Bills played KC very similar to this situation. The dog has covered 6 straight in this series and let’s not act as of this Tennessee team is some slouch. They are 3-2 this year so this is a huge game for them and they won the AFC South a season ago. We’re not talking about Jacksonville or the NY Jets here. They are a playoff caliber team getting nearly a TD at home. This one stays close throughout and we’ll take the points. |
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10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -3 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -120 | 70 h 5 m | Show |
#268 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland -3 over Arizona, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET - We love the way this one has set up. We’re getting one of the top teams in the NFL, Cleveland, off a loss and back at home. They are 3-2 on the season with down to the wire losses @ KC and @ LA Chargers and this is a huge game for them. The Browns lost 37-32 @ LA last week but outgained the Chargers in overall yardage and on a YPP basis. They were also +117 yards on the ground racking up 230 yards rushing on 6.6 YPC. Their defense underperformed last week but still rank 7th in YPP allowed even with that showing. The D should also be well rested having not been on the field for more than 25 minutes (out of 60 minutes) in any of their last 4 games. Arizona comes in 5-0 and ready to be plucked. Last week they played host to division rival San Francisco and won 17-0 despite being outgained on both a total yard and YPP basis. That was a Niner team with a rookie QB making his first start and SF has many opportunities to win that game. The Cards are off back to back division games so this is a nice letdown spot for them. It’s also a terrible match up for their defense. Cleveland is the best running team in the NFL averaging 187 YPG on 5.4 YPC. Arizona’s defense ranks 28th in rushing YPG allowed and 31st in YPC allowed. Not only that, the Cards give up big plays in the running game allowing an average of 5 carries per game of 10+ yards (last in the NFL) and they are 31st in the NFL on yardage allowed on carries of 10 yards or more. Bad news for them is Cleveland’s running game leads the NFL in yards gained on carries of 10 or more yards. So Cleveland won’t need their passing attack to pick up chunk yardage on Sunday. With the successful running game will come a great play action pass attack which is perfect for Baker Mayfield. If he’s asked to carry a team in the passing game, he can struggle, but if he is just complementary to their running game, he can be very good and so can Cleveland’s offense. Arizona also relies on running the ball but they are facing a MUCH tougher Cleveland defense allowing just 3.4 YPG (3rd in the NFL). It’s supposed to be windy in Cleveland so the Browns dominance in the running game will be even more pronounced. On top of that, Arizona has been hit by Covid this week and one of their top defensive players, DE Chandler Jones, will be out. Who knows if there are more to come? Arizona QB Murray has been limited in practice this week due to a shoulder injury and his top target WR Hopkins may not play on Sunday due to an illness which we might assume is Covid since it has hit the team. Another one of Murray’s top targets, TE Williams is now out for the year after getting injured last Sunday. Despite their records, our power ratings have Cleveland the better team. They are +1.2 YPP differential while the undefeated Cards are +0.7 YPP. Now we’re getting what we feel is the better team, in a much more desperate situation at home coming off a loss. Cleveland is the play here. |
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10-17-21 | Chiefs v. Washington Football Team OVER 54 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
#257/258 ASA NFL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 54 Points – Kansas City vs Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - This has the makings of a shootout. The KC defense ranks last in the NFL in YPP allowed at 7.1 and they’ve allowed 4 straight opponents to reach at least 30 points. The only opponent that did not reach 30 points vs this sieve of a defense was Cleveland and they scored 29. Opponents are scoring on 54% of their drives vs this KC defense which ranks them last in the league in that category. KC’s offense continues to be nearly unstoppable. Last week they “only” scored 20 points against the NFL’s top defense Buffalo that allows just 12 PPG. In that game KC has plenty of chances getting shut out on downs inside Bills territory and committing 2 of their 4 turnovers deep inside the Buffalo 15 yard line. In their other 4 games the Chiefs have averaged 33.5 PPG. Now they face a Washington defense that is WAY down from last year allowing 31 PPG after allowing 21 PPG last season. In their last 4 games Washington has allowed 29, 43, 33, and 30 points. Two of those four teams that lit the Washington defense up are rated 22nd or lower in scoring this year (Giants & Falcons). Opponents are scoring on over 52% of their drives vs this Washington defense which ranks them 31st in the league. They will not shut this KC offense down who comes in off a loss. Washington’s offense has been clicking scoring an average of 27 PPG over their last 4 games and 2 of those games were vs Buffalo (#1 scoring defense) and New Orleans (#11 scoring defense). Now they face the worst scoring defense in the NFL with KC allowing 32.6 PPG. Oh by the way, Washington defense is the 2nd worst scoring defense in the league giving up 31 PPG. KC games are averaging 64 PPG this year (1st in the NFL) and Washington games are averaging 55 PPG (4th in the NFL). This one goes OVER. |
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10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles OVER 51.5 | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 56 m | Show |
#109/110 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 51.5 Points- Tampa Bay vs Philadelphia, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - Both of these teams play at a fast pace which should give us plenty of offensive opportunities. Tampa ranks #1 in the NFL in pace averaging 1 play every 25 seconds and Philly is #5 in that category at 1 play every 26.4 seconds. Both offenses are extremely efficient with each ranking in the top 10 averaging more than 6 YPP. Tampa has been in 4 high scoring games and just 1 low scoring game. Their only stinker on offense was @ New England in a driving rainstorm vs a coach who knows what it takes to slow down a Brady led offense. Their other 4 games all went over the total and all reached at least 58 points with an average combined score of 63 points. The Eagle defense has faced 2 similar offenses this year in Dallas & KC and they allowed 41 & 42 points in those 2 games respectively. Philly will have to keep up on offense here if they want a shot at a win. We think they can. The Tampa defense has dropped off drastically from last season allowing 24 PPG after allowing 21 PPG last season. They’ve had 2 good defensive efforts this year but those were vs 2 offensive teams that rank near the bottom of the NFL in a number if key categories (Miami & New England – 31st & 27th in YPP offense). In their other 3 games the Bucs have allowed 34, 29, and 25 points. This selection is being made on Tuesday and as of now the weather looks perfect in Philly on Thursday night. Tom Brady did injure his thumb last Sunday @ Miami but he did so early in the game and still went on to throw for over 400 yards and 5 TD’s. Reports as of Tuesday say he will be fine on Thursday. The projected final score of this game based on the 7 point spread is Tampa 29.5 – Philadelphia 22.5. Our projections has both teams topping those numbers with TB pushing into the 30’s and the Eagles to the mid 20’s. Take the OVER on Thursday night. |
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10-10-21 | 49ers +5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -106 | 31 h 49 m | Show |
#475 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco +5.5 over Arizona, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - Arizona has started the season a perfect 4-0 while San Fran is off back to back home losses vs Green Bay & Seattle. Thus, this line is higher than it should be according to our power ratings. If this was the season opener, we’re looking at right around pick-em for a line and now we get the Niners at +5. Arizona was very fortunate in their only home tilt this year as the Vikings missed a FG at the buzzer that would have given them the win (Zona won 34-33). They struggled to a 31-19 win @ Jacksonville but the Cards were trailing 19-10 late in the 3rd quarter in that game when a pick 6 turned the game around (Jax also had 4 TO’s). After picking up a nice win last week @ LA Rams (Rams were in letdown spot of win over Bucs) the Cardinals stock is a bit high right now. San Fran lost 28-21 at home to Seattle last week but they dominated the stat sheet with a +2.0 YPP differential, +1.1 YPC differential, and 9 more first downs. Starting QB Garoppolo was injured and rookie QB Lance came in an did very well in the 2nd half. While Lance was in the game the 49ers outgained Russell Wilson and the Seahawks 230 to 170 so he played well. It looks like he will most likely start this weekend which will be tough on Arizona with San Francisco bringing an entirely different offensive gameplan to the table that HC Shanahan has been waiting to unleash. The Cardinal defense will be running blind in this one as far as being able to game plan for the SF offense. The last 14 times San Francisco was coming off back to back losses as favorites, they were 11-3 ATS in their next game. This has been an underdog series with the puppy going 5-0-1 ATS the last 6 meetings including 4 outright wins. Last year the Niners were 6 point underdogs @ Arizona with CJ Beathard at QB and won the game! This is a buy low (SF) / sell high (Arizona) spot for us and we like the 49ers to get the cover. |